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California's Rainy Season Almost Over

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:12 PM GMT on March 18, 2014

The California rainy season is close to its end. Rain-bearing low pressure systems typically stop bringing heavy rains to the state by mid-April, as the jet stream shifts to the north in its usual springtime migration. With no rain in the forecast for the next seven days, and the 16-day GFS forecast showing mostly light rains affecting the northern portion of the state 8 - 16 days from now, California has likely seen at least 90% of the precipitation that it’s going to get this anemic rainy season. That’s a huge concern for a state suffering through its worst winter drought conditions in recorded history, and Sierra snow pack and reservoir levels near record lows. This year’s drought could well be a harbinger of the future, as climate change is expected to cause increased water availability problems in California. The state is going to have to find new sources of water in the future to support its growing population. Where can California find more water?


Figure 1. Predicted precipitation for the 7-day period ending on Tuesday, March 25, 2014. No rain is expected to fall in California in the coming week. Image credit: NOAA/HPC.

Conservation
The most feasible way for California and the thirsty Southwest U.S. to get more water is through conservation. Irrigated agriculture currently consumes more than 70% of the water supply within the Colorado River basin, and is the obvious first place to look to implement water-saving conservation measures. A 2013 publication by the Pacific Institute, "Water to Supply the Land: Irrigated Agriculture in the Colorado River Basin", offers a number of common-sense ways agriculture could use Colorado River water more efficiently. The river's annual flow is about 15 million acre-feet (an acre-foot is the amount of water needed to cover an acre of land to a depth of one foot.) One-third of the Colorado River's annual flow, about 5 million acre-feet, is devoted to irrigating pasture, alfalfa (hay), and other forage crops used to feed cattle and horses. Alfalfa, planted extensively from Wyoming to the delta in Mexico, covers more than a quarter of the total irrigated acreage in the basin. Almost 7% of the river's flow (1 million acre-feet) might be saved by irrigating alfalfa less often (a practice known as “regulated deficit irrigation”). This process reduces crop yields by about 25%, and thus this process costs approximately $81 per acre-foot of water saved. According to Dr. Peter Gleick, President of the Pacific Institute, farmers in Southern California's Imperial Irrigation District are charged as little as $22 per acre-foot of Colorado River water, so some incentives would have to be offered to farmers to get them to implement this water savings plan. (The $22/acre-foot price is an amazingly good deal for a commodity so precious. For comparison, water pumped from rivers in Northern California to Southern California is priced at over $1500 per acre-foot.)


Figure 2. A 2013 publication by the Pacific Institute, "Water to Supply the Land: Irrigated Agriculture in the Colorado River Basin", offers a number of common-sense ways agriculture could use Colorado River water more efficiently.

Shifting to less water-intensive crops can also yield impressive water savings. For example, replacing about 10% of the basin’s irrigated alfalfa acreage with cotton and wheat could save about 1.5% of the river's flow (250,000 acre-feet), at an estimated cost of about $36 per acre-foot of water saved. Other industrial and municipal water conservation efforts could save up to 600,000 acre-feet per year at a cost of about $700/acre-foot before the year 2035, according to the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation.

I’ll discuss four other ways California can get more water in future blogs posts in the coming week.

Jeff Masters

Drought

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Probably the most iconic photographs associated with the Labor Day Hurricane..

Florida East Coast Railway Overseas Railroad relief train derailed near Islamorada, Florida during the 1935 Labor Day hurricane.
Quoting 486. StormTrackerScott:


Orlando averages 106 days above 90. Infact Orlando is the 16 warmest city in the United States and is the second warmest in FL with Fort Myers being the warmest at 114 days above 90.

Yuma,AZ takes first place with 175 days above 90.

Link


Having grown warm season plants like tomatoes in DC and TLH I can attest those few more degrees in TLH (combined with shorter days)
make a big difference. I can grow tomatoes through the summer until frost in DC although I need a second planting in July to get high quality fruit in October. But in TLH plants start declining in July and young plants set out also decline and don't produce much for the rest of the season. In Fall the sun gets weak before temperatures decline so fall wasn't productive for me at least. Results with various crops

Corn. Season late May to mid July. After mid July new plants wouldn't produce

Tomatoes. Season late May to mid July.

Peppers. Did fine.

Peas bore through mid June (surprise)
Lettuce Maintained qualtity to mid June.
Squash. Declined after July.
Melons Declined after July
Watermelons Thrived.
Eggplant Thrived.
Beans grew but did not bear after July. (Same problem in DC 2010-2012.. other TLH heat problems describe here have not been observed in DC)

Broccoli. Produced good quality May and June. Fall crops were very poor quality.

Sweetpotatoes. Thrived (but sweetpotato weevils are endemic in Zone 9.. not a problem in DC)

Strawberries. Surprise! did well through June every year. Season was April-June for day neutral varieties.

Overall Spring (Feb-June) gardening was more fun in TLH and fall (July-December) gardening is more fun in DC.
Picture of the Great Miami Hurricane of 1926:



From 1921-1950 FL. saw some intense and deadly hurricanes in regions where if it happened today would leave the state in a huge mess.

Some notable storms:
1921 Tampa Bay Hurricane
1926 Great Miami Hurricane
1928 Lake Okochobee Hurricane
1935 Labor Day Hurricane
1944 Cuba-Florida Hurricane
1945 Homestead Hurricane
1946 Florida Hurricane
1947 Fort Lauderdale Hurricane
1948 Miami Hurricane
1950 Hurricane Easy
1950 Hurricane King
Quoting 500. StormTrackerScott:


Our 90 in Orlando feels a heck of a lot hotter than the 100 degree days in the desert SW. The heat here in FL and be downright smothering especially with summer dewpoints averaging in the mid 70's.


What always kills me in Orlando during the summer is the lack of breeze. If there happens to be one, that means the sea breeze collision is about to happen and you need to get inside quick.
whyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyy

Quoting 503. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Picture of the Great Miami Hurricane of 1926:



From 1921-1950 FL. saw some intense and deadly hurricanes in regions where if it happened today would leave the state in a huge mess.

Some notable storms:
1921 Tampa Bay Hurricane
1926 Great Miami Hurricane
1928 Lake Okochobee Hurricane
1935 Labor Day Hurricane
1944 Cuba-Florida Hurricane
1945 Homestead Hurricane
1946 Florida Hurricane
1947 Fort Lauderdale Hurricane
1948 Miami Hurricane
1950 Hurricane Easy
1950 Hurricane King
I was born very near that spot..:)
This old map in interesting. It doesn't account for a lot of storms in the past 15 years.

I think that map only shows storms through 1999 and denotes the majors that hit each particular region in that time period.

Most interesting thing about that map (which looks the same in terms of the last 15 years) is the relatively "safe" zones in Florida; the Big Bend and the NE Coast north of the Palm Beaches. Not to say that the passing storms do not cause significant rain, winds, storm surge, and beach erosion (they do) but no major hurricane landfalls in these two regions in the modern recorded era................Great location pick for Cape Kennedy in retrospect.
Quoting 461. Naga5000:


Ack! No, I was born and raised in Ft. Lauderdale, we have our own separate airport and everything! :)


And don't forget, our own Burger King.
Quoting 504. Naga5000:


What always kills me in Orlando during the summer is the lack of breeze. If there happens to be one, that means the sea breeze collision is about to happen and you need to get inside quick.


It's brutal here in the Summer which starts in May here in FL and last thru October. The days that are temps are around 90 to 94 our heat index is normally in the 105 to 110 range.
More heavy rain across C & N FL come next Monday & Tuesday as the 12Z GFS is showing totals approaching 3".

What's the hottest temperature ever recorded here?

On July 21, 1942, the mercury hit 101 degrees in West Palm Beach. A rare northwest wind was behind that, said Jim Lushine, a retired weather service meteorologist.

"The northwest wind flow, very unusual for July, brought air from northwest Florida, which continued to heat up as it moved southeast across the land, thus stifling the sea breeze," he said.

The highest temperature statewide was 109 degrees on June 29, 1931, in Monticello, near Tallahassee, he added.

Does South Florida have a hot spot?

West Palm Beach, where temps have reached 100 degrees four times in the past 113 years — two on consecutive days, July 2 and 3, 1927. By comparison, Fort Lauderdale has seen the century mark twice and Miami only once.

West Palm Beach's average high August temperature is 90.3 degrees, hotter than Fort Lauderdale's, 90.2.

It sits closer to an area of high pressure that commonly forms near Lake Okeechobee during the summer, and that area tends to create west winds, Molleda said. "It can make a 1- or 2-degree difference."
Quoting 511. StormTrackerScott:


It's brutal here in the Summer which starts in May here in FL and last thru October. The days that are temps are around 90 to 94 our heat index is normally in the 105 to 110 range.


I ask my wife every year why we live here. She always tells me the winter is beautiful. I reminded her that it got to 84 in January. My point is, I think the heat causes selective amnesia. :)
Quoting 511. StormTrackerScott:


It's brutal here in the Summer which starts in May here in FL and last thru October. The days that are temps are around 90 to 94 our heat index is normally in the 105 to 110 range.
And that's when we get our daytime afternoon pop up seabreeze thunderstorms, I like those because it cools off the place from the heat, unfortunately the nights become humid, sticky, and muggy.
Happy Last Day of Winter
Quoting 438. EllasD:


I too am from Calif but have been on the MS Gulf Coast for about 17 yrs. I have been thru all the big earthquakes, Northridge, Coalinga, Loma Prieta. I would rather go thru an earthquake than a hurricane any day of the week. It shakes, you deal with it and move on. A hurricane is totally different, the anticipation and anxiety alone will break a newbie, that's why you always include booze in your supply kit, which should be fully stocked by June 1st. And if you're on a fixed income and need to evac out, pray you have a stash of cash for that or a water proof SHARPIE, that way you can write your SS# on your arm


Better on your torso. Arms can be disarticulated from your torso.
Quoting 497. ricderr:
Major City - Days over 100 Degrees
Phoenix, Arizona 107
Las Vegas, Nevada 70
Riverside, California 24
Dallas, Texas 17
Austin, Texas 16
Sacramento, California 11
Oklahoma City, Oklahoma 11
San Antonio, Texas 8
Salt Lake City, Utah 5
Houston, Texas 4
Kansas City, Missouri 3


Phoenix says 90 aint nothing.....el paso averages 20 days a year over 100



Do you have a link to this info?
On a related note (Cape Kennedy), Jules Verne picked Tampa as the launch site for the moon shot in Trip to the Moon in 1865..........He was only off by a few hundred miles................

From Wiki:

After deciding the place for the launch (Stone's Hill in "Tampa Town", Florida; predating Kennedy Space Center's placement in Florida by almost 100 years; Verne gives the exact position as 27.7' northern latitude and 5.7' western longitude, of course relative to the meridian of Washington.
Quoting Naga5000:


I ask my wife every year why we live here. She always tells me the winter is beautiful. I reminded her that it got to 84 in January. My point is, I think the heat causes selective amnesia. :)

LOL. I'm pretty sure the heat really does cause selective amnesia. Springtime, even though it doesn't last long, almost makes up for it though. :-)
Survived Donna, was living and born on Wendly Key and moved to Coral Gables after Donna so our house could be rebuilt. Survived Andrew, Betsy, and Cleo no problems. You need to build your house to withstand a Cat 5 storm so you don't need to leave. Much rather live in a hurricane zone than an earthquake or tornado prone area. Also I trust JB's weather forecast more than anyone else on this blog except for Dr. Masters and even then I more inclined to believe JB on climate change.
Galveston Hurricane 1900

Quoting 399. ncstorm:
one of the cones of doom for Irene..



As always the best place to be is in the bulls eye for a five day forecast...virtually assures you that you will not be getting the brunt of the storm.
USA Today is onboard with trying to save the Keeling Curve now too..

Said they got some..they need more funds.
Ped....at daughters soccer practice...will get you the link when back at the office

Scott...you.re right....many times I'll be hotter but due to humidity many Seuss cities will feel hotter outside...The difference is though that like many people I go from home to car to office to store ...The effort to cool those places to a comfortable level is muchmuch more difficult here than the re
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
Happy Last Day of Winter


Current Conditions: Eufaula AL
Temp: 66F
Dew Point: 53F
Relative Humidity: 63%
Wind: 2mph, SW, 9 mph gusts
Sky: Few scattered at 25,000, clear
Rainfall: 0.00 since midnight

Not a bad last day of Winter...or first day of Spring either. :-)
Quoting 513. Grothar:
What's the hottest temperature ever recorded here?

On July 21, 1942, the mercury hit 101 degrees in West Palm Beach. A rare northwest wind was behind that, said Jim Lushine, a retired weather service meteorologist.

"The northwest wind flow, very unusual for July, brought air from northwest Florida, which continued to heat up as it moved southeast across the land, thus stifling the sea breeze," he said.

The highest temperature statewide was 109 degrees on June 29, 1931, in Monticello, near Tallahassee, he added.

Does South Florida have a hot spot?

West Palm Beach, where temps have reached 100 degrees four times in the past 113 years — two on consecutive days, July 2 and 3, 1927. By comparison, Fort Lauderdale has seen the century mark twice and Miami only once.

West Palm Beach's average high August temperature is 90.3 degrees, hotter than Fort Lauderdale's, 90.2.

It sits closer to an area of high pressure that commonly forms near Lake Okeechobee during the summer, and that area tends to create west winds, Molleda said. "It can make a 1- or 2-degree difference."
well ive seen it go to 100 degree's back in nyc several times over the years..they DO get those blasting high temps up there..especially in august..whew...not even a breeze.
World's Greatest Scientists Getting Together to Solve Climate Change

Mar 19, 2014 12:04 PM EDT by Osvaldo Nunez

The American Association for the Advancement of Science has announced that they are gathering the world's best scientists to advance the study of climate change. The union of the minds will announce their collective belief about the scale to which climate change is occurring, and they will strive for solution.

A report, called "What We know," discusses the climate science as currently understood. High risk scenarios are also mentioned in the report.

"Even among members of the broader public who already know about the evidence for climate change and what is causing it, some do not know the degree to which many climate scientists are concerned about the risks of possibly rapid and abrupt climate change," James McCarthy of Harvard University said.

The poll on the level of interests that Americans had on fighting climate change revealed that it is number 19 on their priority list out of 20 problems that they wish congress would deal with. Quite simply put, Americans just don't care about climate change.


The report also said that there are ways to manage the risks of climate change. Americans have taken initiative towards problems in the past, like with acid rain and the ozone hole.


"There's much we can do to respond to the challenge and risks of climate change, particularly by tapping America's strength in innovation," the report said.
"The longer we wait to respond, the more the risks of climate change will increase. Conversely, the sooner we take action, the more options we will have to reduce risk and limit the human and economic cost of climate change," it added.

"We believe we have an obligation to inform the public and policymakers about what science is showing about any issue in modern life, and climate is a particularly pressing one. As the voice of the scientific community, we need to share what we know and bring policymakers to the table to discuss how to deal with the issue," Alan Leshner, CEO of the AAAS, said in a statement.

Climate change is real. The report centers on this idea: If we don't stop neglecting climate change, we are at risk pushing deeper toward disaster, so it is much better to act early than wait for catastrophe to wake us like alarm clocks.
Quoting 512. StormTrackerScott:
More heavy rain across C & N FL come next Monday & Tuesday as the 12Z GFS is showing totals approaching 3".

my grass is loving all this rain..is our...hmmm "DRY SEASON" over yet? lol
Quoting 525. Skyepony:
USA Today is onboard with trying to save the Keeling Curve now too..

Said they got some..they need more funds.


The funds will come as the word spreads skye, thanks for this one.
China going all out for thorium power

Thorium has a lot of advantages. It can't 'go ctitical', like at Chernobyl and Fukushima. It doesn't have a weapons capability, there's no problem with waste material, and it's as common as lead.

It can also be used on a small scale, to power towns and factories. What's not to like?

Telegraph article
Riverside, California (Airport)
Updated: 9:53 AM PDT on March 19, 2014
Clear
69 °F
Clear
Humidity: 16%
Dew Point: 21 °F
Wind: 7 mph from the ENE
Pressure: 30.01 in (Rising)
Visibility: 10.0 miles
UV: 4 out of 16
Pollen: 9.70 out of 12
Pollen Forecast new!
Clouds:
Clear -
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 817 ft

Todays forecast is 79F, 65.3 here....
Quoting 98. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
it will come but not till mid sept onward and reach peak by feb march 2015

until then it will be a slow progression towards it


And it won't make any difference in Southwestern precipitation until monsoon season which here in New Mexico, is July, August, and September. Texas has to count on a few early tropical storms to make a dent in its drought. Not a likely scenario. Maybe Texas should do a better job of water conservation than it does rather than consistently steal our little water in New Mexico.
Quoting Skyepony:
USA Today is onboard with trying to save the Keeling Curve now too..

Said they got some..they need more funds.

I'll ask my same question I asked and never got answered last week. The article says over $1 million has been raised by crowdsourcing. How much more is needed? What is the total budget? Is the total revenue, outside of crowdsourcing, zero, or more than zero? Mr. Keeling seems reluctant to provide this data, and I'm baffled about why this should be the case. He says that budget money provided by grants and tax money is "unstable". I can't imagine a more unstable source of an annual budget than crowdsourcing.
Quoting 485. Jedkins01:



In order from first to last:

1. Miami
2. Ft. Lauderdale
3. Tampa
4. Jacksonville

My list is based on what seems most likely be meteorological standards. I place Jacksonville easily in dead last because its located in a place unfavorable for hurricane landfalls.

Tampa, while not as likely as say the Central Gulf coast or SW Florida or SE Florida, is still far more likely to me than Jacksonville.

I'd say Tampa has just been very lucky, and while its been a very long time since a major hurricane has made landfall there, it has had strong hurricanes come quite close many times before since the last major, Charley was not the only close call, there have been others.
some old guy told me when i first moved here..that tampa was picked not only for a good port location but the lack of hurricanes and big storms going into it..who knows if he was right..but so far he's been on the money,next year will be 30 years here and none ever came in here directly.
Quoting 529. Patrap:
World's Greatest Scientists Getting Together to Solve Climate Change

Mar 19, 2014 12:04 PM EDT by Osvaldo Nunez

The American Association for the Advancement of Science has announced that they are gathering the world's best scientists to advance the study of climate change. The union of the minds will announce their collective belief about the scale to which climate change is occurring, and they will strive for solution.

A report, called "What We know," discusses the climate science as currently understood. High risk scenarios are also mentioned in the report.

"Even among members of the broader public who already know about the evidence for climate change and what is causing it, some do not know the degree to which many climate scientists are concerned about the risks of possibly rapid and abrupt climate change," James McCarthy of Harvard University said.

The poll on the level of interests that Americans had on fighting climate change revealed that it is number 19 on their priority list out of 20 problems that they wish congress would deal with. Quite simply put, Americans just don't care about climate change.


The report also said that there are ways to manage the risks of climate change. Americans have taken initiative towards problems in the past, like with acid rain and the ozone hole.


"There's much we can do to respond to the challenge and risks of climate change, particularly by tapping America's strength in innovation," the report said.
"The longer we wait to respond, the more the risks of climate change will increase. Conversely, the sooner we take action, the more options we will have to reduce risk and limit the human and economic cost of climate change," it added.

"We believe we have an obligation to inform the public and policymakers about what science is showing about any issue in modern life, and climate is a particularly pressing one. As the voice of the scientific community, we need to share what we know and bring policymakers to the table to discuss how to deal with the issue," Alan Leshner, CEO of the AAAS, said in a statement.

Climate change is real. The report centers on this idea: If we don't stop neglecting climate change, we are at risk pushing deeper toward disaster, so it is much better to act early than wait for catastrophe to wake us like alarm clocks.


Americans don't care because there are still plenty of deniers in the media like FOX news and many members of Congress and State Legislatures like NC. When the sh-t really hits the fan, they will be the first ones screaming, why didn't we do something? Well, the sh-t is already starting to hit the fan, so what now? Now we think we can stop it when absolutely nothing was done by the US in the last 40 years?
Everything is back to normal at Fort Myers Beach after the windy weather earlier in the week. Boats are back and the surf had died down. Fort Myers Beach only catches a S or SW/W swell. Swells out of the North or Northwest are blocked by Sanibel Island and Captiva to its north. Surf can be breaking waist high out on Captiva and Sanibel and be flat at Fort Myers Beach.

Quoting 414. NCstu:
I'm moving from NC to Boston in April. I wouldn't mind some mild winters for the NE for the next few years while I get acclimated.


My daughter is graduating next month after four years in NC, first three years all should wanted was some cold weather and snow, after this winter she can't wait to get back to the Bahamas!!!!!!
This website is calling warmth:


Quoting 117. thesailer99:
With water conserving supplies the first thing to do it put everyone on a meter. Once you know who the big users are and who is wasting the water you can start to deal from a factual base. I know that plan is a none starter in the USA as it met a lot of resistance in other countries but it does work.


In CA, the biggest water users have the most political pull. They are already working hard to mitigate any decrease in their water supply and will continue to do so.
Interesting fact many people don't know.
From Wiki
Cape Coral Florida has over 400 miles (640 km) of canals, more than any other city in the world.[11] Most of the canals are navigable and some have access to the Gulf of Mexico. Cape Coral's canal system is so extensive that local ecology and tides have been affected.[12]
Quoting 218. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


levi maybe we get an arctic summer this year as well as a winter


It would take quite a few volcanoes going off at once to do this.
Quoting 509. Grothar:


And don't forget, our own Burger King.


Let me guess you get the value coffee.
ped...here's the Link
Quoting yonzabam:
China going all out for thorium power

Thorium has a lot of advantages. It can't 'go ctitical', like at Chernobyl and Fukushima. It doesn't have a weapons capability, there's no problem with waste material, and it's as common as lead.

It can also be used on a small scale, to power towns and factories. What's not to like?

Telegraph article

I think thorium is the wave of the future, along with hydrogen gas cells. It's a relatively abundant element, most of the reserves are in countries not run by unstable terrorist governments, and gas mantles are much easier and cheaper to produce than fission reactors. It has some problems to be solved, like being explosive when exposed to oxygen, and it is radioactive, with some of the same radioactive issues as uranium, but it's a much better way forward, especially since it's almost impossible to produce weapons grade plutonium from thorium. One advantages China has that it's not tied to nuke plants from four generations back, so they will work harder to develop thorium plants than many Western countries. I have great hopes for some of these newer technologies. The energy scene a generation from now will look much different - and much more efficient - than what we see today.
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
This website is calling warmth:



Looks just fine to me. :-) Now, I just need a short term forecast for next week in Destin showing the same thing and I'll have a happy vacation.
Quoting 511. StormTrackerScott:


It's brutal here in the Summer which starts in May here in FL and last thru October. The days that are temps are around 90 to 94 our heat index is normally in the 105 to 110 range.


Would love to have another summer like last year, we normally get our share of +90 degree days but last year I did not have a single day at my house where the temp got to 90 and our warmest days last year were in October and November. Pretty sure it was because of all the rain we had in May which lowered our water temperatures and kept our SST's below normal until towards the end of September.
still snow up north sun-mon.........
Quoting VAstorms:


Americans don't care because there are still plenty of deniers in the media like FOX news and many members of Congress and State Legislatures like NC. When the sh-t really hits the fan, they will be the first ones screaming, why didn't we do something? Well, the sh-t is already starting to hit the fan, so what now? Now we think we can stop it when absolutely nothing was done by the US in the last 40 years?

There has been a tremendous amount of work done to reduce carbon output, as well as pollution in general, since I was a child in this country.

Gary, Indiana, 1954:



Cleveland, Ohio skyline today:



You can generalize this to every industrial city in the US during the 50's. Smoke was not a pollutant back then. It was a sign the economy was booming and everyone had jobs. Combined with pollution control and a general collapse in the industrial economy, cities like Cleveland have some of the cleanest air in the country.

Automobiles produce 90% less exhaust pollution today than they did in 1970. Automobiles last about 3 times longer now than in 1970. We aren't junking cars and making news one, with all the attendant pollution, at 100,000 miles now, like we did in 1970. Overall electrical demand in the US has decreased by about 30% over the last 50 years. Our lighting uses less energy, homes are better insulated, and vehicles of all kinds get gas mileage that we could only have dreamed about in 1970. My first car was 1957 Chevy Bel Air. It had a small 283 CI V-8 engine and was considered an "semi-economy" car in 1957. It needed premium gas and got about 14 mpg. The average fuel economy of automobiles has more than doubled since 1970. We have not been sitting on our duffs doing nothing, and it's a little annoying to keep hearing this kind of thing.
WWW.GLOBALINCIDENTMAP.COM

Type: EarthQuake
6 hours ago
Magnitude: 4.2
DateTime: 2014-03-19 06:55:53
Region: Cayman Islands Region
Depth: 10
Source: CSEM-EMSC Feed
Quoting 472. Tropicsweatherpr:
Does anyone know why JB is at odds with NOAA? I see all his tweets are contradicting what NOAA says about climate.
Because much as JB knows about the weather, he knows virtually nothing about climate science or statistics. That, along with enough arrogance to believe he's more knowledgeable about climate than hundreds of actual degreed and credible climatologists (though he never formally studied the subject), and quite a bit of ideological bias, apparently has him convinced he knows more than he demonstrably does.

Sometimes tilting at windmills is a grand and noble and glorious thing. But sometimes it's just, you know, a crazy guy fighting farm machinery... ;-)
553. NCstu
Quoting 550. sar2401:

There has been a tremendous amount of work done to reduce carbon output, as well as pollution in general, since I was a child in this country.

Gary, Indiana, 1954:



Cleveland, Ohio skyline today:



You can generalize this to every industrial city in the US during the 50's. Smoke was not a pollutant back then. It was a sign the economy was booming and everyone had jobs. Combined with pollution control and a general collapse in the industrial economy, cities like Cleveland have some of the cleanest air in the country.

Automobiles produce 90% less exhaust pollution today than they did in 1970. Automobiles last about 3 times longer now than in 1970. We aren't junking cars and making news one, with all the attendant pollution, at 100,000 miles now, like we did in 1970. Overall electrical demand in the US has decreased by about 30% over the last 50 years. Our lighting uses less energy, homes are better insulated, and vehicles of all kinds get gas mileage that we could only have dreamed about in 1970. My first car was 1957 Chevy Bel Air. It had a small 283 CI V-8 engine and was considered an "semi-economy" car in 1957. It needed premium gas and got about 14 mpg. The average fuel economy of automobiles has more than doubled since 1970. We have not been sitting on our duffs doing nothing, and it's a little annoying to keep hearing this kind of thing.

It also helps that everyone moved away from Cleveland.
Nino 3.4 is climbing slowly but on the other hand Nino 1+2 is falling like a rock. Modoki?

Quoting 514. Naga5000:


I ask my wife every year why we live here. She always tells me the winter is beautiful. I reminded her that it got to 84 in January. My point is, I think the heat causes selective amnesia. :)


A colleague (Florida transplant who now for business reasons lives in MN)
always corrects me when I say he lives in MN.

"George, I RESIDE in MN. I don't LIVE here. Big difference!"
Quoting 552. Neapolitan:
Because much as JB knows about the weather, he knows virtually nothing about climate science or statistics. That, along with enough arrogance to believe he's more knowledgeable about climate than hundreds of actual degreed and credible climatologists (though he never formally studied the subject), and quite a bit of ideological bias, apparently has him convinced he knows more than he demonstrably does.

Sometimes tilting at windmills is a grand and noble and glorious thing. But sometimes it's just, you know, a crazy guy fighting farm machinery... ;-)


Agree. Also maybe some promotion to his site?
557. SLU
Quoting 442. TropicalAnalystwx13:
@NOAA 1m
#Feb 2014 global land surface #temp makes coldest Feb for globe since 1994 per @NOAANCDC: http://1.usa.gov/NnpxRg




Global Cooling. :)

The Ultimate Guide to ‘Star Wars: Episode VII’

Read this, young padawan. From Lupita Nyong’o to Adam Driver, here’s your ultimate guide to the new ‘Star Wars’ movie.

Do you feel a disturbance in the force? You should, because we’re only 21 months away from the release of Star Wars: Episode VII. The film will take place about 30 years after Return of the Jedi, and will “star a trio of new young leads along with some very familiar faces.” And while there are rumors floating around, one thing is certain: Disney plans on releasing a new Star Wars movie every year starting in 2015. Because clearly nothing can go wrong with pumping out film after blockbuster film of a beloved franchise.

big news on star wars!!
Entertainment

03.19.14
Nino 3.4 is climbing slowly but on the other hand Nino 1+2 is falling like a rock. Modoki?


a few experts...not counting jb....have talked about it..but i'm not so sure at this point....
Global Cooling. :)



LMAO.......

Quoting GTstormChaserCaleb:
Picture of the Great Miami Hurricane of 1926:


The 1926 hurricane also ended the very first Florida real estate bubble. Even though the population continued to grow after 1930, it never again reached the triple digit rates of the pre-hurricane period. Given the current real estate situation in Florida, with so many homeowners in foreclosure or underwater on their mortgage (pun intended), I wonder what will happen when the "big one" hits Florida again? I suspect a lot of homeowners will take their insurance money and run. Much like what happened in New Orleans after Katrina, it could be a historic depopulation of a region due to a weather event.
Quoting 554. Tropicsweatherpr:
Nino 3.4 is climbing slowly but on the other hand Nino 1+2 is falling like a rock. Modoki?

Modoki or not the atlantic looks to be very inactive for hurricane season.
Quoting georgevandenberghe:


A colleague (Florida transplant who now for business reasons lives in MN)
always corrects me when I say he lives in MN.

"George, I RESIDE in MN. I don't LIVE here. Big difference!"

LOL. My brother worked for Honeywell and lived in Minneapolis for almost 30 years. He used to say Honeywell employees didn't live in Minneapolis, they were held hostage there.
Quoting 557. SLU:


Global Cooling. :)
The 1926 hurricane also ended the very first Florida real estate bubble. Even though the population continued to grow after 1930, it never again reached the triple digit rates of the pre-hurricane period. Given the current real estate situation in Florida, with so many homeowners in foreclosure or underwater on their mortgage (pun intended), I wonder what will happen when the "big one" hits Florida again? I suspect a lot of homeowners will take their insurance money and run. Much like what happened in New Orleans after Katrina, it could be a historic depopulation of a region due to a weather event.


however most mortgage companies since katrina...number one...require the insurance comapny to include their name on claims over 5,000 dollars...and many now require their inspector to evaluate work done before they will sign off on the final (depreciation) check
Quoting NCstu:

It also helps that everyone moved away from Cleveland.

Only about half the people. :-) Still, this story is repeated in almost any large city nationwide. Even Los Angeles, formerly the poster boy for pollution, is far cleaner than when I moved there in 1966.
Quoting 467. GeorgiaStormz:
It's all one big Metropolitan Area



Megalopolis - Boston to Washington



Still, this story is repeated in almost any large city nationwide. Even Los Angeles, formerly the poster boy for pollution, is far cleaner than when I moved there in 1966.


i can remember vacationing there in the late 60's and early 70's...it was so bad it hurt to breathe
So, lemme run with some spoken logic so far,

If Australia just experienced its Warmest Summer ever recorded, should they now see a Colder than ever recorded Winter ? Or a warmer than average Winter ?

Talk among yourselves, I'm working on a Shrimp Po-boy..and a Barq's Root beer.

NOAA:


800,000 Year Record of Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Concentrations

Over the last 800,000 years, natural factors have caused the atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration to vary within a range of about 170 to 300 parts per million (ppm). The concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere has increased by roughly 35 percent since the start of the industrial revolution. Globally, over the past several decades, about 80 percent of human-induced CO2 emissions came from the burning of fossil fuels, while about 20 percent resulted from deforestation and associated agricultural practices. In the absence of strong control measures, emissions projected for this century would result in the CO2 concentration increasing to a level that is roughly 2 to 3 times the highest level occurring over the glacial-interglacial era that spans the last 800,000 or more years


Carbon dioxide concentration (parts per million) for the last 800,000 years, measured from trapped bubbles of air in an Antarctic ice core. The 2008 observed value is from the Mauna Loa Observatory in Hawaii and projections are based upon future emission scenarios. More information on the data can be found in the Climate Change Impacts on the U.S. report.
Talk among yourselves, I'm working on a Shrimp Po-boy..and a Barq's Root beer.


couple of things...


first....fresca stock just plummeted

second....had the lobby tv on the nasa channel the other day and came across the tail end of a blurb they were running that nasa is sending a satellite into orbit in july to study the effects of carbon dioxide and temperatures
Serious question: how much of human-related CO2 output comes from breathing? Over 7 billion little CO2 factories out there now.
Try da google, its free I think.

Quoting 570. ricderr:
Talk among yourselves, I'm working on a Shrimp Po-boy..and a Barq's Root beer.


couple of things...


first....fresca stock just plummeted

second....had the lobby tv on the nasa channel the other day and came across the tail end of a blurb they were running that nasa is sending a satellite into orbit in july to study the effects of carbon dioxide and temperatures


Masters may have mentioned dat in a entry I think,"mmm, scrunch, drip,mmm,mmm"...
Quoting ricderr:
The 1926 hurricane also ended the very first Florida real estate bubble. Even though the population continued to grow after 1930, it never again reached the triple digit rates of the pre-hurricane period. Given the current real estate situation in Florida, with so many homeowners in foreclosure or underwater on their mortgage (pun intended), I wonder what will happen when the "big one" hits Florida again? I suspect a lot of homeowners will take their insurance money and run. Much like what happened in New Orleans after Katrina, it could be a historic depopulation of a region due to a weather event.


however most mortgage companies since katrina...number one...require the insurance comapny to include their name on claims over 5,000 dollars...and many now require their inspector to evaluate work done before they will sign off on the final (depreciation) check

Doesn't matter. As long as the homeowner can walk away with most of the mortgage paid off and their credit not completely ruined, they'll take the deal and run. Northern retirees are currently sustaining the Florida economy. If they stop coming, or start leaving, things turn sour fast. There are lots of nice places in Alabama, as one example, that have the same miserable weather in the summer, you don't (generally) have to shovel snow, and you can buy a relative palace for the price of a garage in south Florida. Take a look at this house in Eufaula:



Completely restored, 6,400 square feet, 5 bedrooms, 2.5 baths, on 2 acres in the center of the historic district. 165 mile shoreline bass fishing lake almost at the front door and two hours to Florida beaches....but far enough away that it won't get wrecked by a hurricane. $399,900 asking price. You could probably get it for $375k. Assuming a house like this was even available in south Florida, I think it would go for a few bucks more. :-)
NASA's New Carbon-Counting Instrument Leaves the Nest


05.10.12--NASA's first mission dedicated to studying atmospheric carbon dioxide moves a step closer to reality with the shipment of its JPL-built science instrument.

Mutli-media linkie dinkie

here it is...



In July, NASA will launch a mission to advance our understanding of carbon dioxide's role in climate change. The Orbiting Carbon Observatory (OCO)-2, a replacement for a mission lost after a launch vehicle failure in 2009, will make precise, global measurements of carbon dioxide, the greenhouse gas that is the largest human-generated contributor to global warming. OCO-2 observations will be used to improve understanding of the natural and human-induced sources of carbon dioxide and how these emissions cycle through Earth's oceans, land and atmosphere.
Quoting 558. hurricanes2018:

The Ultimate Guide to ‘Star Wars: Episode VII’

Read this, young padawan. From Lupita Nyong’o to Adam Driver, here’s your ultimate guide to the new ‘Star Wars’ movie.

Do you feel a disturbance in the force? You should, because we’re only 21 months away from the release of Star Wars: Episode VII. The film will take place about 30 years after Return of the Jedi, and will “star a trio of new young leads along with some very familiar faces.” And while there are rumors floating around, one thing is certain: Disney plans on releasing a new Star Wars movie every year starting in 2015. Because clearly nothing can go wrong with pumping out film after blockbuster film of a beloved franchise.

big news on star wars!!
Entertainment

03.19.14




Nearby Airports warm up here

New Haven | Mostly Cloudy | 40 °F
Meriden | Overcast | 45 °F
Bridgeport | Overcast | 39 °F

Wrong location?


Nearby Weather Stations

Beacon Hill/Lake Saltonstall - Branford | 40.2 °F
Rock Hill | 41.4 °F
Foxon | 44.6 °F
578. JRRP
Quoting Gearsts:
Modoki or not the atlantic looks to be very inactive for hurricane season.

mmmmmm yo no estaria del todo seguro....
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Agree. Also maybe some promotion to his site?

I was under the impression that JB, for all his bombast, actually does have a degree in meteorology.

That's compared to some of the most bombastic pretenders here.
LOL
East Haven, CT 40.0 °F Mostly Cloudy at 3:07pm on march 19 2014!!
That's compared to some of the most bombastic pretenders here.

oh no...they have degrees

BS----- bull crap

MS---- more of the same

PHD---piled high and deep
Quoting 545. ricderr:
ped...here's the Link


Where I live 23 days over 95F, Only 2 days over 100F last year. I live about 1.67 miles North of the Riverside Airport (KRAL) I always wonder why it is so much cooler here. I am on the North side of the Santa Ana river, they are South of it. Big difference between 2 and 24.

Quoting 578. JRRP:

mmmmmm yo no estaria del todo seguro....


Why not so sure?
Quoting 571. BobinTampa:
Serious question: how much of human-related CO2 output comes from breathing? Over 7 billion little CO2 factories out there now.


When you consider the human factor (7 billion as you stated) in the big scheme of things (breathing, factories, automobiles, buses, fossil fuel burning, deforestation, agricultural production, water consumption, etc.) along with extended life expectancy, that is a lot of additional C02 anyway you look at the equation in the wake of the industrial revolution and the population explosion.

The Earth, without any people on it, would survive (and has) and adapt to climate change issues including species extinction episodes based upon climate change or loss of habitat due to cooling or warming periods.

The problem at present is shrinking natural resources in an over-populated world which is exacerbated by climate change issues. That is one tough nut to crack at the end of the day and we have to wonder what life on Earth (for Man) will look like in 300 years.

Pretty mind boggling to consider all of the potential future ramifications across the board of in-action as well by current generations to try to address these issues.
sar...while i don't think the average insurance claim will get you off the hook with your mortgage loan i could see quite a few people taking their ACV check and running while letting their home go into foreclosure



as for homes....eventually jessica and i will move back to florida....around the crystal river area....we love to look at the home prices...even as low as the home prices are here in el paso.....we could get a whole lot more there
Gillian
LOL..

Brad Panovich WCNC
Liked · 15 minutes ago

We are getting reports of this bright object, anyone see it?

Quoting 576. ricderr:
here it is...



In July, NASA will launch a mission to advance our understanding of carbon dioxide's role in climate change. The Orbiting Carbon Observatory (OCO)-2, a replacement for a mission lost after a launch vehicle failure in 2009, will make precise, global measurements of carbon dioxide, the greenhouse gas that is the largest human-generated contributor to global warming. OCO-2 observations will be used to improve understanding of the natural and human-induced sources of carbon dioxide and how these emissions cycle through Earth's oceans, land and atmosphere.


Unless of course that mission ends in disaster too. Then we know someone doesn't want us to figure it out.
In 27 years of dealing with the media during many high profile incidents, the is the most revolting and disgusting thing I've ever seen on the part of the media, a government which is supposed to be in control, and relatives of those on MH370, who are the victims of this melee. 12 days later and Malaysia still can't keep the media out of the faces of these relatives. Just awful. :-(

Link
Quoting Dakster:


Unless of course that mission ends in disaster too. Then we know someone doesn't want us to figure it out.

Or, they have to stop using those nuts and bolts from the Dollar General. :-)
Quoting 571. BobinTampa:
Serious question: how much of human-related CO2 output comes from breathing? Over 7 billion little CO2 factories out there now.


Serious answer: none.

Exhaled CO2 is part of the carbon cycle, so does not contribute to rising levels.
Thank you for the link.
Quoting 571. BobinTampa:
Serious question: how much of human-related CO2 output comes from breathing? Over 7 billion little CO2 factories out there now.
Serious answer: all the carbon we humans--and every other animal on earth--exhale has already been accounted for. Through respiration, we're all just returning to the air the same carbon that was there to begin with in the food we eat; every bit of carbon in our bodies came (either directly or indirectly) from plants farther down the food chain, plants that pulled the carbon from the air very recently...
Quoting ricderr:
sar...while i don't think the average insurance claim will get you off the hook with your mortgage loan i could see quite a few people taking their ACV check and running while letting their home go into foreclosure



as for homes....eventually jessica and i will move back to florida....around the crystal river area....we love to look at the home prices...even as low as the home prices are here in el paso.....we could get a whole lot more there

It's already happened in other places with natural disasters, Sandy being one. We're staying at a place called Sterling Shores in Destin next week. A high end condo complex where a two bedroom with an ocean view went for about a million in 2007. They have been pestering me since I made the reservation to look at some of their hundreds of empty condos, with a one bedroom starting at about $90,000. The former million dollar model can be had for about $150,000 without even breaking a sweat. Prices have come down just a bit. :-) Still, if it's a choice between a beach condo with $500 a month maintenance fees or renting a couple of times a year and living in a house like the one I posted, there's no doubt which one I'd choose.
Quoting 594. sar2401:

Or, they have to stop using those nuts and bolts from the Dollar General. :-)


Those are stronger than the ones they currently use.

5 million parts made and put together by the lowest bidder.
Quoting 597. Neapolitan:
Serious answer: all the carbon we humans--and every other animal on earth--exhale has already been accounted for. Through respiration, we're all just returning to the air the same carbon that was there to begin with in the food we eat; every bit of carbon in our bodies came (either directly or indirectly) from plants farther down the food chain, plants that pulled the carbon from the air very recently...


Blasphemy !


or...!!!!




"Yo, Science'.."



You beat me to it ncstorm. Looks at the percentages of above normal rainfall across C FL at days 6 thru 10. Geesh!

Quoting 600. ncstorm:




today is the last day of winter

no more cold air maps allowed

we are done with it spring tomorrow

maybe put some flowers around them or somem
Quoting 604. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


today is the last day of winter

no more cold air maps allowed

we are done with it spring tomorrow

maybe put some flowers around them or somem


I just saw the 12z Euro for almost all of NC and all points upward..winter has punched it ticket for readmission..
Quoting 605. ncstorm:


I just saw the 12z Euro for almost all of NC and all points upward..winter has punched it ticket for readmission..


ya I know
someone was wishing for snow few months back
hope there happy

they got there wish

or either that someone forgot to till old man winter its time to head south the deep deep south

like antarctica
Sneaux and Winter are of the Devil.


Quoting 601. Patrap:
"Yo, Science'.."

Sometimes acknowledged as common sense.

Edit: "Common sense ain't common." -- Will Rogers
Quoting 606. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


ya I know
someone was wishing for snow few months back
hope there happy

they got there wish

or either that someone forgot to till old man winter its time to head south the deep deep south

like antarctica


There's always FL. Please don't throw things at me.

today is the last day of winter

no more cold air maps allowed

we are done with it spring tomorrow

maybe put some flowers around them or somem




well let me post this today then...



Wxrisk.com added 3 new photos.
22 mins ·
***ALERT *** 12z WED European Model & 12z Canadian ensemble turn very "BULLISH " on Possible SIGNIFICANT EAST COAST WINTER STORM .... MARCH 25 26
There has been a significant change or r increase with respect to the potential for a significant East Coast winter storm next week on March 25-26. In general most of the model guidance has turned Snowier and is showing much more of southern stream or Gulf of Mexico Low (MILLER A) . The implications of this are significant because IF.... IF... this March 24-m Low s a pure southern stream or Gulf of Mexico low ...the odds of seeing a significant late season snowstorm over western central North Carolina ....most of Virginia including the eastern half of Virginia... ...much of central and eastern Maryland & Delaware ..and up into the big cities of the northeast and up into Boston are dramatically increased.
Quoting 554. Tropicsweatherpr:
Nino 3.4 is climbing slowly but on the other hand Nino 1 2 is falling like a rock. Modoki?



XD I hope !!!
Quoting 607. Patrap:
Sneaux and Winter are of the Devil.




Thanks Water Boy...
Quoting 610. ricderr:
today is the last day of winter

no more cold air maps allowed

we are done with it spring tomorrow

maybe put some flowers around them or somem




well let me post this today then...



Wxrisk.com added 3 new photos.
22 mins ·
***ALERT *** 12z WED European Model & 12z Canadian ensemble turn very "BULLISH " on Possible SIGNIFICANT EAST COAST WINTER STORM .... MARCH 25 26
There has been a significant change or r increase with respect to the potential for a significant East Coast winter storm next week on March 25-26. In general most of the model guidance has turned Snowier and is showing much more of southern stream or Gulf of Mexico Low (MILLER A) . The implications of this are significant because IF.... IF... this March 24-m Low s a pure southern stream or Gulf of Mexico low ...the odds of seeing a significant late season snowstorm over western central North Carolina ....most of Virginia including the eastern half of Virginia... ...much of central and eastern Maryland & Delaware ..and up into the big cities of the northeast and up into Boston are dramatically increased.


too far out ric

those models are going to flop around like a fish on the Boston wharf
"The implications of this are significant because IF.... IF... this March 24-m Low s a pure southern stream or Gulf of Mexico low ...the odds of seeing a significant late season snowstorm over western central North Carolina ....most of Virginia including the eastern half of Virginia... ...much of central and eastern Maryland ... and ... Delaware ... and up into the big cities of the northeast ... and... up into ... ... Boston... are ... ... ... dramatically... ... increased."

Additional drama added.
Quoting 610. ricderr:
today is the last day of winter

no more cold air maps allowed

we are done with it spring tomorrow

maybe put some flowers around them or somem




well let me post this today then...



Wxrisk.com added 3 new photos.
22 mins ·
***ALERT *** 12z WED European Model & 12z Canadian ensemble turn very "BULLISH " on Possible SIGNIFICANT EAST COAST WINTER STORM .... MARCH 25 26
There has been a significant change or r increase with respect to the potential for a significant East Coast winter storm next week on March 25-26. In general most of the model guidance has turned Snowier and is showing much more of southern stream or Gulf of Mexico Low (MILLER A) . The implications of this are significant because IF.... IF... this March 24-m Low s a pure southern stream or Gulf of Mexico low ...the odds of seeing a significant late season snowstorm over western central North Carolina ....most of Virginia including the eastern half of Virginia... ...much of central and eastern Maryland & Delaware ..and up into the big cities of the northeast and up into Boston are dramatically increased.


Still want more rain down here in Fort Myers. We had to water the plants/flowers today because the soil was already dried out from the .30" we got Monday.


These are the totals from my weather station for this year.

Jan. 4.41" - hit the jackpot back in January (way above normal)
Feb. 1.06"
March. 1.04"
too far out ric

those models are going to flop around like a fish on the Boston wharf



very likely.....but i saw your post and then theirs on FB......had to share
Quoting 615. bappit:
"The implications of this are significant because IF.... IF... this March 24-m Low s a pure southern stream or Gulf of Mexico low ...the odds of seeing a significant late season snowstorm over western central North Carolina ....most of Virginia including the eastern half of Virginia... ...much of central and eastern Maryland ... and ... Delaware ... and up into the big cities of the northeast ... and... up into ... ... Boston... are ... ... ... dramatically... ... increased."

Additional drama added.


I just showed the cat
does not look happy

Quoting 619. ricderr:
too far out ric

those models are going to flop around like a fish on the Boston wharf



very likely.....but i saw your post and then theirs on FB......had to share



That's not sharing, that's Torturing......
Quoting 618. StormTrackerScott:
Boom!

thats alright far away from me that's good
we can keep that model run
Same pattern as all Winter long now into Spring Gulf low forms and tracks across N FL and then bombs just off NC.

Quoting 606. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


ya I know
someone was wishing for snow few months back
hope there happy

they got there wish

or either that someone forgot to till old man winter its time to head south the deep deep south

like antarctica


Keep..I didnt get any snow..this winter has been nothing but a nuisance with Ice, sleet, power outages and copious amounts of rain. The sun has been laid off in my area for winter..

we do have a warmup starting tomorrow with a high of 76 on Friday but then it starts heading downhill again..I would love to see some snow accumulate for Wilmington to where I can go outside and build a snow man..
Quoting 625. ncstorm:


Keep..I didnt get any snow..this winter has been nothing but a nuisance with Ice, sleet, power outages and copious amounts of rain. The sun has been laid off in my area for winter..

we do have a warmup starting tomorrow with a high of 76 on Friday but then it starts heading downhill again..I would love to see some snow accumulate for Wilmington to where I can go outside and build a snow man..


now ya gone and done it
I think I just saw old man winter with that evil snow look on his face in the clouds

sayin so ya want to build a snowman do ya
and I am done shoveling snow for this season

if any comes this way its going to just have to melt
Riverside, California (Airport)
Updated: 12:53 PM PDT on March 19, 2014
Clear
80 °F
Clear
Humidity: 7%
Dew Point: 10 °F
Wind: 8 mph from the NE

Pressure: 29.98 in (Falling)
Visibility: 10.0 miles
UV: 9 out of 16
Pollen: 9.70 out of 12
Pollen Forecast new!
Clouds:
Clear -
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 817 ft

75.4 here in Jurupa Valley.
Just updated. Looking like we are going to end March above average for rainfall. 3.49" so far this month at my house.

Quoting 615. bappit:
"The implications of this are significant because IF.... IF... this March 24-m Low s a pure southern stream or Gulf of Mexico low ...the odds of seeing a significant late season snowstorm over western central North Carolina ....most of Virginia including the eastern half of Virginia... ...much of central and eastern Maryland ... and ... Delaware ... and up into the big cities of the northeast ... and... up into ... ... Boston... are ... ... ... dramatically... ... increased."

Additional drama added.


April 26-27 1978. 5+ inches of liquid water fell over SW VA mountains. In Blacksburg VA, at 2100 feet 4.5" of rain fell and then changed to a very dense wet snow with 2" flakes 1cm thick. You could feel each one of these hitting you and the air was dense with them. About an inch of additional melted liquid came in the form of 4" of slop.

Above 2500 feet there were over 6" of snow and above 3000 feet 12-24" accumulated. The mountains were still snowcapped on May 1.
Quoting 628. PedleyCA:
Riverside, California (Airport)
Updated: 12:53 PM PDT on March 19, 2014
Clear
80 °F
Clear
Humidity: 7%
Dew Point: 10 °F
Wind: 8 mph from the NE

Pressure: 29.98 in (Falling)
Visibility: 10.0 miles
UV: 9 out of 16
Pollen: 9.70 out of 12
Pollen Forecast new!
Clouds:
Clear -
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 817 ft

75.4 here in Jurupa Valley.


Quoting 604. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


today is the last day of winter

no more cold air maps allowed

we are done with it spring tomorrow

maybe put some flowers around them or somem


I keep looking for my tulips to start poking through,that would cheer me up,but doubt I'm going to see them anytime soon.Especially if that Wednesday storm decides to visit us
Dorset Park, Toronto, ONTARIO (PWS)
Updated: 4:15 PM EDT on March 19, 2014
Overcast
43.5 °F
Overcast
Windchill: 44 °F
Humidity: 82%
Dew Point: 38 °F
Wind: Calm
Wind Gust: 0.0 mph
Pressure: 29.71 in (Falling)
Visibility: 10.0 miles
UV: 1 out of 16
Clouds:
Overcast 1200 ft
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 548 ft
Quoting 632. NEwxguy:


I keep looking for my tulips to start poking through,that would cheer me up,but doubt I'm going to see them anytime soon.Especially if that Wednesday storm decides to visit us


hold out NEwxguy I figure by sat afternoon evening early sunday morning those models will be better latched on to what ever they think is coming if anything

it will get warm sooner or later

maybe more like later but hoping for sooner
Quoting 634. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


hold out NEwxguy I figure by sat afternoon evening early sunday morning those models will be better latched on to what ever they think is coming if anything

it will get warm sooner or later

maybe more like later but hoping for sooner


saw the first Robin of the season yesterday a sure sign warmer weather is on the way !!
Quoting 635. whitewabit:


saw the first Robin of the season yesterday a sure sign warmer weather is on the way !!


keep looking seen none yet
soon
from where you are its only 3 days
as the robin flies to get here
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Jakarta
Tropical Cyclone Advisory
TROPICAL LOW, FORMER TC GILLIAN (14U)
3:00 AM WIB March 20 2014
=============================================

At 1:00 AM WIB, Tropical Low, Former Gillian (1007 hPa) located at 9.2S 118.3E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The low is reported as moving west southwest at 19 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0/2.0/S0.0/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
========================
12 HRS 8.4S 115.1E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
24 HRS 9.5S 111.0E - 25 knots (Tropical Low)
48 HRS 9.4S 106.2E - 25 knots (Tropical Low)
72 HRS 10.1S 105.2E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)

Ex-tropical cyclone Gillian is an impact on the weather conditions in parts of Indonesia such as:

- The potential for moderate to heavy rain in the region of Bali, East Nusa Tenggara and West Nusa Tenggara
- Potential light rain in South Sulawesi and East Java
- Ocean waves 2-3 meters likely to occur in the waters of southern Bali and Lombok ¿P. Waters south of Sumba
- Ocean waves 3-5 meters likely to occur in the Savu Sea, Aquatic P. rotte, NTT southern Timor Sea, and the waters south of Kupang
- The potential for strong winds over 15 knots in Bali, East Nusa Tenggara and West Nusa Tenggara.
Quoting 636. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


keep looking seen none yet
soon
from where you are its only 3 days
as the robin flies to get here


your probably a week to ten days behind us here ..
Quoting 635. whitewabit:


saw the first Robin of the season yesterday a sure sign warmer weather is on the way !!


Robins overwinter in the Middle Atlantic region.
A pleasant good afternoon to all...

Quoting 609. StormTrackerScott:


There's always FL. Please don't throw things at me.

Current time: 4:26 p.m. Current temperature: 81 degrees. Thank you for calling...

Ah... the Bahamas...
Quoting 618. StormTrackerScott:
Boom!

its look like one
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #5
TROPICAL CYCLONE MIKE, CATEGORY ONE (19F)
6:00 AM FST March 20 2014
======================================

Warnings for Southern Cook Islands
-------------------------------------

A Gale Warning remains in force for Mangaia and is now cancelled for Takutea, Atiu, Matiaro and Mauke

A Strong Wind Warning remains in force for the rest of southern Cook Islands

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Mike, Category One (990 hPa) located at 24.6S 158.4W has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots. Position good based on hourly GOES visible imagery. The cyclone is reported as moving southeast at 22 knots.

Gale Force Winds
=================
210 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
90 NM from the center in northwest quadrant
360 NM from the center in southern semi-circle

Low level circulation center exposed. Deep convection displaced to the east of low level circulation center . System lies east of an upper trough in a high sheared environment. Outflow good to the east and south. System is being steered to the southeast by the deep layer mean northwesterly. Sea surface temperatures are around 27C.

Dvorak analysis based on shear pattern with center about 1/2 degree from dense overcast yielding DT=3.0, MET=2.0 and PT=2.5. Final Dvorak intensity based on DT.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/3.0/D0.5/24 HRS

Global models agree on a southerly movement with further weakening.

Forecast and Intensity
========================
12 HRS 26.9S 158.8W - 35 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS 28.9S 159.8W - 30 knots (Tropical Depression)
48 HRS 33.0S 161.6W - 30 knots (Tropical Depression)

This will be the final tropical disturbance summary from RSMC Nadi..
Just want to say to ncstorm... this winter has been a real teaser... all of the nuisance value, none of the fun... :o/

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
332 PM EDT WED MAR 19 2014

...WINTRY MIX EXPECTED FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...

MAZ002>004-008>011-026-NHZ011-015-200345-
/O.NEW.KBOX.WW.Y.0013.140320T0000Z-140320T1300Z/
WESTERN FRANKLIN MA-EASTERN FRANKLIN MA-NORTHERN WORCESTER MA-
WESTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-WESTERN HAMPDEN MA-EASTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-
EASTERN HAMPDEN MA-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX MA-CHESHIRE NH-
WESTERN AND CENTRAL HILLSBOROUGH NH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CHARLEMONT...GREENFIELD...ORANGE...
BARRE...FITCHBURG...CHESTERFIELD...BLANDFORD...AM HERST...
NORTHAMPTON...SPRINGFIELD...AYER...JAFFREY...KEEN E...
PETERBOROUGH...WEARE
332 PM EDT WED MAR 19 2014

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO
9 AM EDT THURSDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION...WHICH IS IN EFFECT
FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY.

* LOCATIONS...SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND WESTERN
MASSACHUSETTS...ESPECIALLY IN VALLEY REGIONS AND LOCATIONS NORTH
OF THE MASS PIKE.

* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF AN INCH OR TWO IS
POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH A TRACE OF ICE.

* TIMING...SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON WILL SWITCH OVER
TO SNOW ONCE THE INTENSITY OF THE SHOWERS INCREASE EARLY THIS
EVENING. SNOW WILL CONTINUE LATE THIS EVENING WITH SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN OCCURRING AFTER MIDNIGHT. ALL WINTRY PRECIP WILL
COME TO AN END OR SWITCH TO RAIN BY THE DAY BREAK HOURS.

* IMPACTS...WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL PRODUCE SLIPPERY TRAVEL
CONDITIONS. MOTORIST SHOULD USE CAUTION IF TRAVELING OVERNIGHT.

* WINDS...SOUTHEAST 5 TO 10 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOW TO MID 30S.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS ISSUED WHEN SNOW AND/OR ICE IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THE AFFECTED AREAS...BUT ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT. ANY SNOW OR ICE WOULD RESULT IN SLIPPERY
CONDITIONS ON UNTREATED ROADWAYS AND SIDEWALKS. WHEN
TEMPERATURES ARE BELOW FREEZING...MOTORISTS NEED TO BE ESPECIALLY
CAREFUL ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES WHERE SLIPPERY SPOTS CAN EASILY
DEVELOP.

&&

$$
Quoting 625. ncstorm:


Keep..I didnt get any snow..this winter has been nothing but a nuisance with Ice, sleet, power outages and copious amounts of rain. The sun has been laid off in my area for winter..

we do have a warmup starting tomorrow with a high of 76 on Friday but then it starts heading downhill again..I would love to see some snow accumulate for Wilmington to where I can go outside and build a snow man..
Nws in Newport talking about potential winter storm next week stay tuned
Quoting 645. absurfer:
Nws in Newport talking about potential winter storm next week stay tuned


not us..rain as usual..:(

NWS, Wilmington, NC

NOT ONLY ARE THE COOLER TEMPERATURES OF INTEREST IN THIS FORECAST
PERIOD...BUT ALSO IS THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WHICH WILL AFFECT THE
AREA LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WHICH WILL USE THE AFOREMENTIONED
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFFSHORE AS A SOURCE. NOW THIS IS WHERE A
BIT OF A BOTH TEMPORAL AND SPATIAL DISAGREEMENT COMES INTO PLAY
BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF...WHERE ONE MODELS SUGGESTS A CLOSER
PLACEMENT OF THE EVOLVING COASTAL LOW LATER ON TUESDAY...WHERE THE
OTHER HAS THE COASTAL LOW SLIGHTLY FARTHER OFFSHORE BUT DEVELOPING
EARLIER ON TUESDAY. HAVE DECIDED TO DO A BLEND OF BOTH...WITH THE
PLACEMENT OFF THE LOW A BIT FARTHER OFFSHORE GIVEN PREVIOUS THOUGHTS
OF WHERE THE STALLED FRONT WILL BE. ANTICIPATE UNSETTLED WEATHER AS
EARLY AS MONDAY EVENING...BUT OVERALL TUESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER
CLOUDY/RAINY DAY. EVEN THOUGH WE WILL SEE MUCH COOLER TEMPS...AM NOT
ANTICIPATING ANY WINTRY PRECIP ATTM.
well tues into wenesday..more rain next week.....
Quoting 636. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


keep looking seen none yet
soon
from where you are its only 3 days
as the robin flies to get here


nope,seen no robins yet
WWW.GLOBALINCIDENTMAP.COM

Type: EarthQuake
35 minutes ago
Magnitude: 3.7
DateTime: 2014-03-19 15:15:32
Region: Oklahoma
Depth: 5
Source: CSEM-EMSC Feed
Quoting 649. LargoFl:
WWW.GLOBALINCIDENTMAP.COM

Type: EarthQuake
35 minutes ago
Magnitude: 3.7
DateTime: 2014-03-19 15:15:32
Region: Oklahoma
Depth: 5
Source: CSEM-EMSC Feed


You know Largo, that global map is scary beyond belief.

Are they fracking in OK?
Quoting 645. absurfer:
Nws in Newport talking about potential winter storm next week stay tuned
Raleigh, NC NWS is talking about it too...SOME OF THE INGREDIENTS
ARE IN PLACE FOR POSSIBLE WINTER WEATHER ON TUESDAY MORNING... Still a long way off.
Quoting 650. Dakster:


You know Largo, that global map is scary beyond belief.

Are they fracking in OK?


They are fracking in Oklahoma the likes of which God has never seen.



Winter Won't Quit: Snow Spreads to Great Lakes, Northern New England

Winter is not over yet for the Great Lakes and northern New England.
Oklahoma earthquake spike likely linked to fracking boom
Published time: February 20, 2014 03:57 Get short URL


Central Oklahoma has seen a massive increase in earthquakes in recent years, leading geological scientists to link the uptick in quakes to oil and gas development in the way of hydraulic fracking.

From 1975 to 2008, the US Geological Survey found that central Oklahoma experienced one to three 3.0-magntitude earthquakes per year, The Nation reported. That number jumped to an average of 40 a year from 2009 to 2013.

The state has received 25 such quakes this year, and 150 total quakes just this week. Overall, the entire state of Oklahoma has experienced 500 earthquakes of any magnitude since Jan. 1.

Scientific data suggests the current fracking boom is a major part of the spike. Fracking is the highly controversial process of injecting water, sand, and various chemicals into layers of rock, in hopes of releasing oil and gas deep underground.

Fracking has long been associated with seismic activity, as researchers have shown connections between quakes and wastewater injection wells. The toxic wastewater is stored deep underground, causing friction along fault lines, scientists have found. For instance, researchers last year linked drill sites to a series of quakes in parts of Ohio.

The injection wells used for oil and gas development are the “most reasonable hypothesis” to explain the earthquake uptick in Oklahoma, Nicholas van der Elst, a post-doctorate research fellow at Columbia University’s Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, told The Nation.

“The burden of proof is on well operators to prove that the earthquakes are not caused by their wells,” van der Elst said.

One 2011 study, published in the journal Geology, linked liquid infusion with earthquakes in the state, including the largest ever recorded in Oklahoma. The state has over 4,400 disposal wells, StateImpact reported.

The Nation found that the seismic action associated with fracking wells are getting notice in state legislatures. Arkansas has banned wells in one 1,550-square mile area based on quakes there. Ohio has banned wells near fault lines, and a task force was assigned by the state of Kansas to assess links between quakes and fracking.

Vermont has banned fracking, despite negligible prospects for oil or gas production, and Massachusetts is seriously considering a ban.

Five Colorado cities have prohibited fracking, though they face legal challenges from the state – not the industry. And the city of Dallas passed late last year restrictions that prohibit fracking within 1,500 feet of a home, school, church, and other protected areas, effectively banning the practice within the city.

One town in rural Texas has taken to demanding that regulators act immediately to ban fracking in their area, as they allege that it is to blame for a spate of recent earthquakes.

Meanwhile, a recent report found that some of the most drought-ravaged areas of the US are also heavily targeted for oil and gas development using fracking, a practice which exacerbates water usage.

Half of the 97 billion gallons of water used since 2011 for fracking have gone to wells in Texas, a state in the midst of a severe, years-long drought. Meanwhile, oil and gas production through fracking is on track to double in the state over the next five years, the Guardian reported.

In California, 96 percent of new wells are located in areas where competition for water is high. A drought emergency for the entire state – which has traditionally dealt with water-sharing and access problems – was declared last month.

Most people probably thought I was joking... And I wasn't.
With all the talk of rain up in Central and North Florida, we need rain down here in S.W. Fl.

Top story on the 5pm news - brush fires burning in the Fort Myers area.


It is a little dry here in SE Fla as well, Sfloridacat5.

We've had a few brush fires as well, but our top notch fire department has taken care of them, forthwith.
Fire in Fort Myers (actually across the bridge in the Cape) is still growing and local fire departments are waiting for help from the forest department (as reported by NBC2 news a minute ago).
Very long range (324 hours) on the 12z GFS... but matches with the upcoming LRC pattern, as it goes into the active (amplified) phase. Something to keep an eye on, severe weather wise!

Double post
Quoting 657. Dakster:
It is a little dry here in SE Fla as well, Sfloridacat5.

We've had a few brush fires as well, but our top notch fire department has taken care of them, forthwith.
We've been super wet with puddles all over the place.The forecast was for drizzle and instead we have a full blown rain storm.
Quoting 662. washingtonian115:
We've been super wet with puddles all over the place.The forecast was for drizzle and instead we have a full blown rain storm.


they were forecasting freezing rain for us this am but it warmed up too much and its been all rain

I don't mine
rain is good

I like this hurricane map because it gives the names and locations. It just needs to be updated past 2004.
the rain is washing everything down which is good

Do you have anything left to melt Keeper?
Quoting 665. Sfloridacat5:
I like this hurricane map because it gives the names and locations. It just needs to be updated past 2004.


Up to 2011
Quoting 659. Thrawst:
Very long range (324 hours) on the 12z GFS... but matches with the upcoming LRC pattern, as it goes into the active (amplified) phase. Something to keep an eye on, severe weather wise!


Probably just typical GFS long-range deception. MJO won't favor any sustained warmth for the USA anytime soon.
Quoting 667. PedleyCA:
Do you have anything left to melt Keeper?


just the black dirt snow banks left over from the plow

and some ice patches on the lawn around the trees

that's about it

Quoting 670. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


just the black dirt snow banks left over from the plow

and some ice patches on the lawn around the trees

that's about it



still have a snow drift on the north side of property along tree line .. in town all gone but piles by light posts in large parking lots ..

ground very soft .. but frost out now ..
The last three cold fronts have all dried up before reaching me. I have not had a strong thunderstorm in months. Just like caribboy, I do not like the dry season.
Quoting 671. whitewabit:


still have a snow drift on the north side of property along tree line .. in town all gone but piles by light posts in large parking lots ..

ground very soft .. but frost out now ..
we are to fall back down into the -15 range again by sunday Monday for night lows - 3 to -5 for day time highs that's in C not F by the way
Thursday, 20 March
A few flurries ending near noon then cloudy with 60 percent chance of rain showers or flurries. Wind west 40 km/h gusting to 60. High plus 3.

Thursday night, 20 March
Cloudy with 60 percent chance of rain showers or flurries early in the evening. Clearing near midnight. Wind west 20 km/h. Low minus 5.

Friday, 21 March
A mix of sun and cloud. High plus 5.

Saturday, 22 March
Periods of snow or rain. Windy. Low zero. High plus 3.

Sunday, 23 March
A mix of sun and cloud. Low minus 11. High minus 4.

Monday, 24 March
Sunny. Low minus 13. High minus 2.

Tuesday, 25 March
Cloudy with 40 percent chance of flurries. Low minus 11. High minus 2.
must be the dinner time lull here on eastern half
Latest Euro with a Nor,easter..
Quoting 674. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
Thursday, 20 March
A few flurries ending near noon then cloudy with 60 percent chance of rain showers or flurries. Wind west 40 km/h gusting to 60. High plus 3.

Thursday night, 20 March
Cloudy with 60 percent chance of rain showers or flurries early in the evening. Clearing near midnight. Wind west 20 km/h. Low minus 5.

Friday, 21 March
A mix of sun and cloud. High plus 5.

Saturday, 22 March
Periods of snow or rain. Windy. Low zero. High plus 3.

Sunday, 23 March
A mix of sun and cloud. Low minus 11. High minus 4.

Monday, 24 March
Sunny. Low minus 13. High minus 2.

Tuesday, 25 March
Cloudy with 40 percent chance of flurries. Low minus 11. High minus 2.


your highs are what are lows are expected to be ..
Quoting 676. hydrus:
Latest Euro with a Nor,easter..
looks well offshore just coastal effects hopefully
What you see: What Kori sees:
From Miami NWS Disco...

FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN PUSH EAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY SATURDAY
MORNING AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
DEWPOINTS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND
AND TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S
AND LOWS IN THE 60S. A CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS INDICATE AT THIS
TIME THAT A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL OUT AROUND CENTRAL FLORIDA
ON SUNDAY AND REMAIN AROUND THAT AREA THROUGH MONDAY. AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY MONDAY OR
TUESDAY...FORCING THE BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD TOWARDS SOUTH FLORIDA
BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. FORECAST REFLECTS AN INCREASE IN RAIN
CHANCES THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THIS SCENARIO. HOWEVER THERE REMAINS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY
AND THIS WILL BE REVISED AS WE MOVE FORWARD IN TIME. RAIN CHANCES,
GIVEN LATEST GFS RUN COULD START INCREASING A BIT EARLY LATE IN
THE WEEKEND OR EARLY IN THE WEEK THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST BUT TOO
EARLY AND UNCERTAIN TO CHANGE THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
TEMPERATURES MIGHT DROP DOWN TO NEAR NORMAL BEHIND THIS NEXT FRONT
SOMETIME TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
A little humid out keeper?
Quoting 636. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


keep looking seen none yet
soon
from where you are its only 3 days
as the robin flies to get here
I've seen a few in the Hartford area, actually a whole group, picking about on the State Capitol lawn. I think there were a good 8 birds.
heavy snow for boston
Quoting 679. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
looks well offshore just coastal effects hopefully
Yep. I hope it stays there. Any shift to the west will increase potential damage to already damaged areas. We lost our Grandparents house on the New Jersey coast in the Dec-1992 Nor,Easter. Not a good sat pic, but it pounded the Mid Atlantic States and New England...


December 1992 nor'easter
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

This is a good article.


December 1992 nor'easter


Type Nor'easter, blizzard
Formed December 10, 1992
Dissipated After December 12, 1992
Lowest pressure 985 mbar
Highest gust 80 mph (130 km/h) at Cape May, New Jersey
Maximum snowfall or ice accretion ~4 ft (1.2 m) in The Berkshires in western Massachusetts
Damage $1%u20132 billion (1992 USD)
Fatalities 4 direct, 19 total
Areas affected Mid-Atlantic states, New England

The December 1992 nor'easter produced record high tides and snowfall across the northeastern United States. It developed as a low pressure area on December 10 over Virginia, and for two days it remained over the Mid-Atlantic states before moving offshore. In Maryland, the snowfall unofficially reached 48 in (1,200 mm); if verified, the total would have been the highest in the state's history. About 120,000 people were left without power in the state due to high winds. Along the Maryland coast, the storm was less severe than the Perfect Storm in the previous year, although the strongest portion of the storm remained over New Jersey for several days. In the state, winds reached 80 mph (130 km/h) in Cape May, and tides peaked at 10.4 ft (3.2 m) in Perth Amboy. The combination of high tides and 25 ft (7.6 m) waves caused the most significant flooding in the state since the Ash Wednesday Storm of 1962. Several highways and portions of the New York City Subway and Port Authority Trans-Hudson systems were closed due to the storm. Throughout New Jersey, the nor'easter damaged about 3,200 homes and caused an estimated $750 million in damage (1992 USD).

The nor'easter increased tides across the northeastern United States for several days due to its slow movement. In New York City, tides reached 8.04 ft (2.45 m) at Battery Park, which flooded Franklin D. Roosevelt East River Drive. Along Long Island, the nor'easter destroyed over 130 homes and left 454,000 people without power. In New England, 230,684 people lost power during the storm. Five houses were destroyed in Massachusetts, and flooding reached 5 ft (1.5 m) deep in Boston. Further inland, the storm produced significant snowfall, estimated at around 4 ft (1.2 m) in The Berkshires. The high snow totals closed schools for a week in western Massachusetts. Overall, the storm caused between $1%u20132 billion in damage (1992 USD) and 19 deaths, of which four were directly related to the storm. In March of the following year, the Storm of the Century caused worse damage across a larger region of the eastern United States.
Population Bracketology Games!

I scored 59 on the metropolitan area population game and 63 on the state population game. :)

Quoting 687. BaltimoreBrian:
Population Bracketology Games!

I scored 59 on the metropolitan area population game and 63 on the state population game. :)



50 for me for cities and 58 for states with Minnesota being stunned by New Jersey surprising me the most. I really don't believe your scores :P
Quoting 688. Bluestorm5:


50 for me for cities and 58 for states with Minnesota being stunned by New Jersey surprising me the most. I really don't believe your scores :P
But I do
since they're true!
Quoting 687. BaltimoreBrian:
Population Bracketology Games!

I scored 59 on the metropolitan area population game and 63 on the state population game. :)

51 on the metropolitan. This is fun.

Edit: 57 on the State one. Not bad for somebody else's country... lol
You can play again because every time you reload it shuffles the metro areas and states into new brackets :)


If Neapolitan doesn't like it I'll take it down.
Quoting 693. BaltimoreBrian:


If Neapolitan doesn't like it I'll take it down.


Brian..are you selling those shirts..I'm interested in buying one..
Quoting 694. ncstorm:


Brian..are you selling those shirts..I'm interested in buying one..
Would be very cool if one could insert one's fave bloggers in the name space.... lol ... one could have a shirt for every day of the month... lol...
I made the graphic on a t-shirt site. I didn't actually order the shirt. It was zazzle.com and they have volume discounts :)
Sweet snow dreams everyone! GTG.

698. JRRP
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Why not so sure?

is too early
Quoting 696. BaltimoreBrian:
I made the graphic on a t-shirt site. I didn't actually order the shirt. It was zazzle.com and they have volume discounts :)


shucks..there goes my chance to wear Nea's name on my chest..:)
17 more hours until Spring arrives officially.
Quoting 686. hydrus:
Yep. I hope it stays there. Any shift to the west will increase potential damage to already damaged areas. We lost our Grandparents house on the New Jersey coast in the Dec-1992 Nor,Easter. Not a good sat pic, but it pounded the Mid Atlantic States and New England...


December 1992 nor'easter
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

This is a good article.


December 1992 nor'easter


Type Nor'easter, blizzard
Formed December 10, 1992
Dissipated After December 12, 1992
Lowest pressure 985 mbar
Highest gust 80 mph (130 km/h) at Cape May, New Jersey
Maximum snowfall or ice accretion ~4 ft (1.2 m) in The Berkshires in western Massachusetts
Damage $1%u20132 billion (1992 USD)
Fatalities 4 direct, 19 total
Areas affected Mid-Atlantic states, New England

The December 1992 nor'easter produced record high tides and snowfall across the northeastern United States. It developed as a low pressure area on December 10 over Virginia, and for two days it remained over the Mid-Atlantic states before moving offshore. In Maryland, the snowfall unofficially reached 48 in (1,200 mm); if verified, the total would have been the highest in the state's history. About 120,000 people were left without power in the state due to high winds. Along the Maryland coast, the storm was less severe than the Perfect Storm in the previous year, although the strongest portion of the storm remained over New Jersey for several days. In the state, winds reached 80 mph (130 km/h) in Cape May, and tides peaked at 10.4 ft (3.2 m) in Perth Amboy. The combination of high tides and 25 ft (7.6 m) waves caused the most significant flooding in the state since the Ash Wednesday Storm of 1962. Several highways and portions of the New York City Subway and Port Authority Trans-Hudson systems were closed due to the storm. Throughout New Jersey, the nor'easter damaged about 3,200 homes and caused an estimated $750 million in damage (1992 USD).

The nor'easter increased tides across the northeastern United States for several days due to its slow movement. In New York City, tides reached 8.04 ft (2.45 m) at Battery Park, which flooded Franklin D. Roosevelt East River Drive. Along Long Island, the nor'easter destroyed over 130 homes and left 454,000 people without power. In New England, 230,684 people lost power during the storm. Five houses were destroyed in Massachusetts, and flooding reached 5 ft (1.5 m) deep in Boston. Further inland, the storm produced significant snowfall, estimated at around 4 ft (1.2 m) in The Berkshires. The high snow totals closed schools for a week in western Massachusetts. Overall, the storm caused between $1%u20132 billion in damage (1992 USD) and 19 deaths, of which four were directly related to the storm. In March of the following year, the Storm of the Century caused worse damage across a larger region of the eastern United States.


Where was their house Dak? '92 storm has legendary status in AC and still holds the tide record at the Marina, though there are several close runner-ups (Sandy, Perfect Storm, Belle, Ash Wednesday 1962)
17 more hours until Spring arrives.
Quoting 699. ncstorm:


shucks..there goes my chance to wear Nea's name on my chest..:)
I am sure he would be flattered.... lol...
Tomorrow is the Official First Day of Spring. 17 more hours until Spring has arrived.
Quoting 699. ncstorm:


shucks..there goes my chance to wear Nea's name on my chest..:)

You could always go the tattoo route.
Odds of El Nino increase to 60% and 30 day SOI continues to tank. Read the news at my ENSO Blog.
Quoting 701. wxgeek723:


Where was their house Dak? '92 storm has legendary status in AC and still holds the tide record at the Marina, though there are several close runner-ups (Sandy, Perfect Storm, Belle, Ash Wednesday 1962)
It wasnt Dak, its me.:)..Waretown, on Barnegat bay...
Finally found the image I referenced the other night about El Ninos and southeastern Texas landfalls.

The Pennsylvania State Senate approved a bill today that would allow school districts to lengthen school days to make up time from snow days. Under the bill, districts would be allowed to calculate the school year on an hourly basis, rather than a daily basis. Also, the bill would let districts hold classes on one Saturday each month.
Quoting 707. hydrus:
It wasnt Dak, its me.:)..Waretown, on Barnegat bay...


Woops wasn't even paying attention! My bad. I know the area well. Was it on a lagoon? Those are big in Ocean County. My dad's childhood shorehouse is on a lagoon in Tuckerton, he's very attached to that place. Somehow that house survived Sandy despite not even being lifted, definitely took some water damage though. Other houses in town not so lucky.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Finally found the image I referenced the other night about El Ninos and southeastern Texas landfalls.


I'd have to run the numbers, but it doesn't look like a particularly strong correlation between cold winters and landfalling tropical cyclones. It looks like like there's a better correlation with at least not as hot and somewhat rainier summers, so maybe the cooler winter is the precursor for some form of El Nino?
Quoting Doppler22:
The Pennsylvania State Senate approved a bill today that would allow school districts to lengthen school days to make up time from snow days. Under the bill, districts would be allowed to calculate the school year on an hourly basis, rather than a daily basis. Also, the bill would let districts hold classes on one Saturday each month.

What ever happened to the idea kids were going to be able to classes on the internet? That would solve some of these issues.
Quoting 709. Doppler22:
The Pennsylvania State Senate approved a bill today that would allow school districts to lengthen school days to make up time from snow days. Under the bill, districts would be allowed to calculate the school year on an hourly basis, rather than a daily basis. Also, the bill would let districts hold classes on one Saturday each month.


Is it really that hard to cut down on their spring break a few days? That's all we're doing.
Quoting Dakster:
Most people probably thought I was joking... And I wasn't.

The increase in small to medium size earthquakes in Oklahoma and the increased use of wastewater injection into gas fields to increase production is undoubtedly linked. The question is if the practice, which isn't quite same as hydraulic fracturing, but similar, poses risks that outweigh the benefits. The best example of long term use of wastewater injection is in the Geysers Geothermal Fields in California. Wastewater is injected into the ground to increase the production of steam for geothermal power, one of the "green" sources of energy often pointed out by environmentalists. This has been going on since 1960, and there are over 30,000 earthquakes a year above zero recorded. In this entire period of time, the largest quake was 4.6, even though it was expected that a quake of at least 5.0 magnitude should have occurred by now. Is this safe? I don't know, but there is no such thing as risk free power.

Link
Quoting 709. Doppler22:
The Pennsylvania State Senate approved a bill today that would allow school districts to lengthen school days to make up time from snow days. Under the bill, districts would be allowed to calculate the school year on an hourly basis, rather than a daily basis. Also, the bill would let districts hold classes on one Saturday each month.
I could see Saturdays, but the kids have a fairly long day already..Interesting bill tho..
Record lows in North America continue to dominate over record highs.

Last 365 days
Hi max 17323
Low max 29402
Total 46,725

Low max 34872
Low min 25153
Total 60,025

YTD
Hi max 2883
Low max 2997
Total 5,880

Low max 8394
Low min 6168
Total 14,562
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:


If Neapolitan doesn't like it I'll take it down.

Aw, c'mon. It's pretty funny. Even science-type guys can appreciate a joke...I hope. :-)
718. beell
Interesting nugget of semi-credible info on MH 370 from a BBC vid in regards to whether the hourly SATCOM ping acknowledgements were coming from a moving aircraft.

Between the :27-:47 second mark.

BBC/Asia

Quoting GeoffreyWPB:

Well, at least show some kind of line bisecting Florida. From Storm Tracker Scott down, it would be a two day winter. North of that, it would be the winter that would never end. :-)
Quoting 710. wxgeek723:


Woops wasn't even paying attention! My bad. I know the area well. Was it on a lagoon? Those are big in Ocean County. My dad's childhood shorehouse is on a lagoon in Tuckerton, he's very attached to that place. Somehow that house survived Sandy despite not even being lifted, definitely took some water damage though. Other houses in town not so lucky.
No. Right on the bay. That house survived many storms until Dec-1992. I was staying in that house visiting my Grandparents in 1985 when Hurricane Gloria was speeding up from Cape Hatteras. I Went back to sea just hours before she hit. Some wind damage to trees, house was fine..
Quoting 697. BaltimoreBrian:
Sweet snow dreams everyone! GTG.



CAN YOU NOT
Quoting 716. luvtogolf:
Record lows in North America continue to dominate over record highs.

Last 365 days
Hi max 17323
Low max 29402
Total 46,725

Low max 34872
Low min 25153
Total 60,025

YTD
Hi max 2883
Low max 2997
Total 5,880

Low max 8394
Low min 6168
Total 14,562

How exciting! But let's put it in perspective...

"February marked the 29th consecutive February and 348th consecutive month with a global temperature above the 20th century average. The last below-average temperature for February and the last below-average temperature for any month was February 1985."
Link
Quoting 722. Birthmark:

How exciting! But let's put it in perspective...

"February marked the 29th consecutive February and 348th consecutive month with a global temperature above the 20th century average. The last below-average temperature for February and the last below-average temperature for any month was February 1985."
Link


Just go outside... Can't you tell how cold it is?
Quoting 720. hydrus:
No. Right on the bay. That house survived many storms until Dec-1992. I was staying in that house visiting my Grandparents in 1985 when Hurricane Gloria was speeding up from Cape Hatteras. I Went back to sea just hours before she hit. Some wind damage to trees, house was fine..


I believe Gloria's surge hit at low tide which limited the damage. Long Beach Island was still briefly cut through during the storm. Though that area sinks during a good summer thunderstorm.
Quoting 722. Birthmark:

How exciting! But let's put it in perspective...

"February marked the 29th consecutive February and 348th consecutive month with a global temperature above the 20th century average. The last below-average temperature for February and the last below-average temperature for any month was February 1985."
Link


I don't believe I made any reference to global temperatures. I simply was showing facts that over the past year NA is breaking a lot more cold temps versus warm temps. I'm sorry that bothers you. Have a excellent night!
Quoting 711. sar2401:

I'd have to run the numbers, but it doesn't look like a particularly strong correlation between cold winters and landfalling tropical cyclones. It looks like like there's a better correlation with at least not as hot and somewhat rainier summers, so maybe the cooler winter is the precursor for some form of El Nino?


Yes and just a reminder which I'm sure you're aware of, we must be careful not to confuse correlation with coincidence.

More then ever, the two are often confused, and many often use speculation to be sure of something that may only be a coincidence.
Quoting 726. Jedkins01:


Yes and just a reminder which I'm sure you're aware of, we must be careful not to confuse correlation with coincidence.

More then ever, the two are often confused, and many often use speculation to be sure of something that may only be a coincidence.


More you shouldn't confuse correlation with causation.

Quoting 713. wxgeek723:


Is it really that hard to cut down on their spring break a few days? That's all we're doing.

Spring Break is already gone.
729. etxwx
Video with transcript from Wednesday's PBS Newshour:
Flood-prone South Florida considers proactive investment against rising seas
In recent years, increased flooding has been a stark wake up call for people living in South Florida. Projections calculated by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers indicate sea levels will rise 9 to 24 inches by 2060 in that vulnerable region. Special correspondent Kwame Holman narrates this look by WPBT at how local governments are trying to prepare for the effects of climate change.
I'm a little too tired to go back and read all of the blog. Would anyone be so kind to tell me the topic of the night so I can keep up?


Quoting 730. Grothar:
I'm a little too tired to go back and read all of the blog. Would anyone be so kind to tell me the topic of the night so I can keep up?




Mcdonald's Mcrib? what is it made of?
732. etxwx
Quoting 730. Grothar:
I'm a little too tired to go back and read all of the blog. Would anyone be so kind to tell me the topic of the night so I can keep up?




There's a topic? You can do what I do and just post random stuff. :))
Quoting 699. ncstorm:


shucks..there goes my chance to wear Nea's name on my chest..:)


You could always eat some of this in honor of him:




He also made a playlist that you may want to give a listen:

Hes known for his romance too:




Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Wellington
Storm Warning
LOW, FORMER TC MIKE (19F)
13:00 PM FST March 20 2014
======================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Low, Former Mike (989 hPa) located at 25.0S 159.0W has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots. The low is reported as moving south southeast at 15 knots.

Storm Force Winds
==================
180 NM from the center in southern semi-circle
Quoting 728. Doppler22:

Spring Break is already gone.


That is insane, how many days have you missed?
Quoting 731. ncstorm:


Mcdonald's Mcrib? what is it made of?


Dead pig. then squeezed though a vice to imitate bones.
Quoting 732. etxwx:


There's a topic? You can do what I do and just post random stuff. :))


You know me. I always like to stay on topic.
I added model run comparisons for every variable for every model run that my server archives (up to 10 days in the past). You can find them right under the usual forecast links when you click on a variable. For those of you who like to observe model trends over time (and if you don't, you should), check it out, and I hope you find it useful.

18z GFS (the only 18z run that has it, but all the 0z runs will).
Quoting 723. VAbeachhurricanes:


Just go outside... Can't you tell how cold it is?

Nope. I'm in central FL. It was beautiful here today. Applied globally, we would have to call it "global awesome."
Quoting 736. Grothar:


Dead pig. then squeezed though a vice to imitate bones.


well that sounds yummy..:(

Quoting 735. wxgeek723:


That is insane, how many days have you missed?


12+ days. I am not sure of the exact amount.
Quoting 733. Jedkins01:


You could always eat some of this in honor of him:




He also made a playlist that you may want to give a listen:

Hes known for his romance too:






Did you know the Charles Farrell in that movie was the Father on "My Little Margie" ?
Quoting 730. Grothar:
I'm a little too tired to go back and read all of the blog. Would anyone be so kind to tell me the topic of the night so I can keep up?


The formation of a possible El-Nino event has been taking a more than exiguous part in the blogs subject matter.. I think Nino has some unexpected weather for us, and will arrive sometime during the hurricane season.
744. beell
Quoting 726. Jedkins01:


we must be careful not to confuse correlation with coincidence.



Quoting 727. VAbeachhurricanes:


More you shouldn't confuse correlation with causation.



or a fat girl for a pregnant one.
Quoting 742. Grothar:


Did you know the Charles Farrell in that movie was the Father on "My Little Margie" ?
Gale Storm also starred..Wonder what her middle name was...found it..Real name.. Josephine Owaissa Cottle..(April 5, 1922 June 27, 2009)
Quoting 725. luvtogolf:


I don't believe I made any reference to global temperatures. I simply was showing facts that over the past year NA is breaking a lot more cold temps versus warm temps. I'm sorry that bothers you. Have a excellent night!

Bothered? Not in the least. I guess that slice doesn't just affect you on the links. :)
Quoting 744. beell:




or a fat girl for a pregnant one.

Wowsers! You got that right!
Quoting 723. VAbeachhurricanes:


Just go outside... Can't you tell how cold it is?
Nah. It's pretty average cold for March evenings here...
749. beell
Quoting 738. Levi32:
I added model run comparisons for every variable for every model run that my server archives (up to 10 days in the past). For those of you who like to observe model trends over time (and if you don't, you should), check it out, and I hope you find it useful.

18z GFS (the only 18z run that has it, but all the 0z runs will).


Very, very nice, Levi.
Thank you.

Quoting 738. Levi32:
I added model run comparisons for every variable for every model run that my server archives (up to 10 days in the past). You can find them right under the usual forecast links when you click on a variable. For those of you who like to observe model trends over time (and if you don't, you should), check it out, and I hope you find it useful.

18z GFS (the only 18z run that has it, but all the 0z runs will).
Yeah. Model trends are very important.
GFS possible Nor,Easter.
Quoting 731. ncstorm:


Mcdonald's Mcrib? what is it made of?
Well, the sauce has got a lot of sugar substitute [read: corn syrup] in it....
Quoting 742. Grothar:


Did you know the Charles Farrell in that movie was the Father on "My Little Margie" ?



I have no clue what you are talking about, but I'll play along ;)
Quoting 751. hydrus:
GFS possible Nor,Easter.
Looks like D.C Faces another possible snow threat.So far only the forecasters in D.C have kept it among themselvs.But by Saturday the at will be out the bag.
Freeze line not far from the gulf..
Quoting 727. VAbeachhurricanes:


More you shouldn't confuse correlation with causation.




LOL, that too :)
Quoting 744. beell:




or a fat girl for a pregnant one.
Or the converse.
Quoting 755. hydrus:
Freeze line not far from the gulf..
Geeze louise... is it still doing that???
Quoting 745. hydrus:
Gale Storm also starred..Wonder what her middle name was...found it..Real name.. Josephine Owaissa Cottle..(April 5, 1922 June 27, 2009)


I knew that! :)
Quoting 743. hydrus:
The formation of a possible El-Nino event has been taking a more than exiguous part in the blogs subject matter.. I think Nino has some unexpected weather for us, and will arrive sometime during the hurricane season.



I disagree!!!!!!!! No large el Nino this year.
I really think some of you will enjoy this.

762. beell
Quoting 757. BahaHurican:
Or the converse.


I intuitively learned the converse in the same instance.
Quoting 736. Grothar:


Dead pig. then squeezed though a vice to imitate bones.



I always thought it was made from the same source as this:

Quoting beell:
Interesting nugget of semi-credible info on MH 370 from a BBC vid in regards to whether the hourly SATCOM pings were coming from a moving aircraft.

Between the :27-:47 second mark.

BBC/Asia


Let me see if I can explain this whole "ping" thing in a way that makes sense. The transmissions came from one geostationary satellite owned by a company named Inmarsat. This satellite, in the southern hemisphere, mainly exists to interrogate transponders on airliners and collect information about things like engine performance and fuel usage. The information is then transmitted back to the airline company so they can look for maintenance problems and make modifications to the aircraft during servicing so the engines run more efficiently. The system has nothing to do with the flight transponder, which is standard, and something which all commercial aircraft are required to have.

On a 777, there's an option to buy a proprietary system called the Boeing Airplane Health Management System (BAHMS). The passive transponder is installed on all 777's. Only if the company subscribes to BAHMS is there an active transponder that sends a data stream with many parameters of airplane and engine performance. Malaysian Airlines did not subscribe to BAHMS.

The Inmarsat satellite sends out a handshake protocol once an hour. Any 777 passive transponder will respond to the handshake request by reflecting back a handshake with 16 bytes of data. Those 16 bytes of data include a bearing from the geostationary satellite and something like a computer password. It's not, exactly, but it's an appropriate analogy. It tells the computer on the satellite and the ground station not to wait for any further data because that transponder is from a plane which doesn't subscribe to BAHMS or a similar system used by Airbus. The computers then move on to processing data from subscribers.

My understanding is that the satellite sent out six hourly handshake requests after the flight transponder contact was lost that received a response. On the seventh and subsequent handshake requests, no response was received. Of the six positive responses, four were after the aircraft was no longer being tracked by Malaysian air defense radar, leading those in charge to believe that the plane flew on for at least four more hours.

The only data received by the Inmarsat satellite was a bearing of the handshake response from the geostationary satellite and the confirmation code that the airplane wasn't part of BAHMS. Period. Nothing about altitude, heading, or speed. Since the satellite wasn't changing position, only the aircraft could be as the bearing changed. Since I have no official part in this search, I don't know what the bearing data was. Geometrically speaking, the aircraft bearing could have been either positive or negative, since there was no second source of bearing data to allow triangulation, hence the north and south arc are both equally possible.

Mathematically, there's no way either arc could have been more likely. The northern arc passed over India, Pakistan, and Afghanistan, assuming MH370 didn't crash into the Bay of Bengal. These countries have obvious reasons to monitor their air space, and the air defense radar networks are the densest in the world. Even if 90% of the operators were as asleep at the switch as they Malaysians appear to have been, MH370 would still have been picked up as unidentified and fighters sent to investigate. I'm assuming that's why the northern arc has been ruled out.

The southern arc only passes over Indonesia and close to Australia - otherwise it's open ocean until MH370 would have run out of fuel. The Indonesian air defense radar network is, to put it kindly, substandard. It wouldn't be surprising that an unidentified aircraft would have passed over Sumatra undetected. That leaves Australia. Australia and the US have a very large array of over the horizon (OTH) radars located in the center of the continent. It's all secret squirrel stuff, but the array is believed to have a 5,000 mile range. The network allegedly exists to monitor things like missile launches from certain countries in Asia not friendly to the West. It's highly unlikely, if not impossible, that MH370 could have flown south toward Australia and not have been seen on this system.

From what I've read, the Australians are searching from the furthest southern point of the arc, working their way north. That makes sense from a SAR viewpoint - you always want to search in rather than trying to chase the target out. I have no idea what the Australian and US operators (and computers) saw or didn't see. Depending on what information they have, which will never be publicly released, the search may range from extremely difficult to essentially impossible. We lost our best chance to locate MH370 when the Malaysian radar saw the aircraft fly over peninsular Malaysia and took absolutely no action.
654. Patrap 9:00 PM GMT on March 19, 2014

From 1975 to 2008, the US Geological Survey found that central Oklahoma experienced one to three 3.0-magntitude earthquakes per year, The Nation reported. That number jumped to an average of 40 a year from 2009 to 2013.

The state has received 25 such quakes this year, and 150 total quakes just this week. Overall, the entire state of Oklahoma has experienced 500 earthquakes of any magnitude since Jan. 1.


Proof is in the pudding

766. beell
sar,
I thought it was an interesting piece of information and addressed a curiosity. I have some understanding of the issues and limitations of the pings.

This satellite, in the southern hemisphere, mainly exists to interrogate transponders on airliners and collect information about things like engine performance and fuel usage.

Your understanding of Inmarsat and the many products and services they offer is a bit under-developed.

www.inmarsat.com

The ping and acknowledgment is a "keep-alive" message between the Sat and the terminal (the aircraft). If there is no acknowledgement, the connection is closed. I had been waiting for some credible information that might indicate the plane was moving. Not parked or sitting half-wrecked in shallow water somewhere running on battery power.

The pings are more useful in guessing where the aircraft isn't.

This link has been kicked around the web quite a bit. The analogy made here and the comments may help those with an interest.
Link



Quoting 740. ncstorm:


well that sounds yummy..:(

That was entirely funny.....to me..pfft..
Quoting 760. Grothar:



I disagree!!!!!!!! No large el Nino this year.
there is going to be a nino Gro maybe not large but a nino none the less
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Jakarta
Tropical Cyclone Advisory
TROPICAL LOW, FORMER TC GILLIAN (14U)
8:44 AM WIB March 20 2014
=============================================

At 7:00 AM WIB, Tropical Low, Former Gillian (1004 hPa) located at 10.1S 116.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The low is reported as moving west southwest at 20 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0/2.0/S0.0/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
========================
12 HRS 9.2S 112.6E - 25 knots (Tropical Low)
24 HRS 9.3S 109.6E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
48 HRS 10.0S 105.9E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
72 HRS 11.8S 104.2E - 40 knots (CAT 1)

Ex-tropical cyclone Gillian is an impact on the weather conditions in parts of Indonesia such as:

- The potential for moderate to heavy rain in the region of Bali, East Java and Yogyakarta
- Potential light rain in the region of NTB, Central Java, West Java, Banten, Jakarta and Lampung
- Ocean waves 2-3 meters likely to occur in the waters south of East Java - NTB, P. Waters south of Sumba, Savu P. southern waters, waters Kupang - P. Rote, Timor Sea south of NTT.
- Ocean waves 3-4 feet likely occurred in the Indian Ocean south of East Java - NTB
- The potential for strong winds over 25 knots in Bali and East Java.
Quoting 765. WaterWitch11:
654. Patrap 9:00 PM GMT on March 19, 2014

From 1975 to 2008, the US Geological Survey found that central Oklahoma experienced one to three 3.0-magntitude earthquakes per year, The Nation reported. That number jumped to an average of 40 a year from 2009 to 2013.

The state has received 25 such quakes this year, and 150 total quakes just this week. Overall, the entire state of Oklahoma has experienced 500 earthquakes of any magnitude since Jan. 1.


Proof is in the pudding

And in rum......Grade "A" Rum...Rum that would put a smile on Emmit Kelly,s face..:)
If we see a strong El Nino (>1.5C ONI) this year, there's a good chance California's...and better yet, the South's...drought is completely wiped out or severely diminished. Strong El Ninos are known to enhance the subtropical jet, especially in the fall and winter, producing plentiful rainfall (and below average temps as a result) across the area.
Looks like another huge storm for the United Kingdom.
Quoting 769. hydrus:
there is going to be a nino Gro maybe not large but a nino none the less


I'll be doing a blog on it soon. Any warming will be too far North. I think it will remain ENSO-neutral a little longer than they think. I will be watching those westerly winds very closely. I honestly do not see the warming that soon.
Quoting 772. TropicalAnalystwx13:
If we see a strong El Nino (>1.5C ONI) this year, there's a good chance California's...and better yet, the South's...drought is completely wiped out or severely diminished. Strong El Ninos are known to enhance the subtropical jet, especially in the fall and winter, allowing disturbances to ride farther south than in a Neutral or La Nina state. This also means below-average temperatures are observed across the area.
Nino is akin to subtropical nitrous..The strongest subtropical I ever saw was during 82-83 event. An atmospheric force to be respected by anyone living in the gulf region.
Quoting 774. Grothar:


I'll be doing a blog on it soon. Any warming will be too far North. I think it will remain ENSO-neutral a little longer than they think. I will be watching those westerly winds very closely. I honestly do not see the warming that soon.
I put my two cents out there for people to read..Late August, early September before its official....Subject to change upon further observations and oceanic conditions..:)
Quoting 772. TropicalAnalystwx13:
If we see a strong El Nino (>1.5C ONI) this year, there's a good chance California's...and better yet, the South's...drought is completely wiped out or severely diminished. Strong El Ninos are known to enhance the subtropical jet, especially in the fall and winter, producing plentiful rainfall (and below average temps as a result) across the area.
It might as well put it's self to good use and give me a great winter.

Quoting 777. washingtonian115:
It might as well put it's self to good use and give me a great winter.
Isn't the northeast US actually warmer during El Nino winters? Might be wrong, though.
Quoting 778. KoritheMan:

Isn't the northeast US actually warmer during El Nino winters? Might be wrong, though.
It depends if other factors are in place as well.Such as a negative NAO.
780. JRRP
1983 had another memorable D.C snow event.
Quoting 778. KoritheMan:

Isn't the northeast US actually warmer during El Nino winters? Might be wrong, though.

The Northwest is better correlated with warmth during an El Nino. The Northeast seems highly variable, and as Washi said, dependent on a lot of other factors.



In a composite of all strong El Ninos, however, the Northeast is slightly above average.



Despite this, a lot of the listed years are notable to those that live there, mainly because the overall pattern associated with strong El Ninos features one that allows for multiple winter storms (in the form of nor'easters).

Quoting 776. hydrus:
I put my two cents out there for people to read..Late August, early September before its official....Subject to change upon further observations and oceanic conditions..:)


I hide mine :)
Quoting 783. Grothar:


I hide mine :)
I didnt..A penny for my thoughts then doubled it for Nino,s sake....not the wine mind you..:)
Quoting 778. KoritheMan:

Isn't the northeast US actually warmer during El Nino winters? Might be wrong, though.

Usually are warmer and drier than normal for me, hence why I generally hate El Nino. I am, however, in the Great Lakes region and not the Northeast.
A blessed night to all...zzzzzzz
@WSJbreakingnews 28s
Australia satellite imagery locates two objects that look like parts of an aircraft http://on.wsj.com/1pdnj33
2004







whats even the point of these models. theres no way you can predict something 672 hours out.
Quoting 789. nwobilderburg:


whats even the point of these models. theres no way you can predict something 672 hours out.


woops...meant to post the 672 hour one
Quoting 751. hydrus:
GFS possible Nor,Easter.


Looks like bad news for fishing off New Foundland. We are progged 1" snow near Philly.

No blocking pattern, (low north high south) it should blow out in 36 hrs.
okay I'm out..interesting read for Summer 2004 for Detroit..

MISERABLE EXCUSE FOR A SUMMER DAY IS ONE OF COLDEST JULY DAYS ON RECORD

It should be stressed, again, that though the summer was cool, it still contained many delightfully pleasant sunny days with highs in the 70s and 80s and relatively low humidity�s. Still, there were enough contenders for miserable summer days also and one in particular stands out, July 27th.

Not only did the high temperatures fail to rise above the lower to mid 60s, but many of those highs occurred in darkness, after midnight in the early morning hours of the 27th! Now, while this does occasionally occur during the colder months of the year, this is a rare bird indeed for a summer day, especially in the peak of summer, in late July! During the afternoon of the 27th, as a chilly steady rain fell and stiff northeast breeze blew, temperatures hovered between the mid 50s to around 60. To show how rare it is to have 50s during a July afternoon in Southeast Lower Michigan, never at Detroit has a record low maximum temperature been below 60 during July. In other words, high temperatures have always hit 60 or better in Detroit since 1870 /134 years/ in July but that almost changed this July. The same holds for Flint, with the exception of one record day (7/14/67-58 deg) when the temperature failed to rise above 60.

The steady, sometimes heavy, cool rainfall left over an inch at many locations in extreme Southeast Michigan (or south of a Flint � Lapeer - Port Huron line to the Ohio Border). Comparatively speaking, that late July's afternoon weather was more typical of late October or early November, not the height of the summer.
EXPANDING ON CHILLY DAYS

While on the subject of cool afternoons, this is a good time to list /Fig-3/ the daily record low maximums and the record lows that occurred during the summer. Also, believe or not, there was actually one record high this past summer, on June 8th at Flint with its only 90 degree day of the summer.

Fig-3
================================================= =======
City............June............July............A ugust
Detroit *M64 / 27th

Flint H90 / 8th M65 / 8th M64 / 11th
M72 / 24th L43 / 22nd
M63 / 27th
Saginaw L42 / 25th L43 / 15th

================================================= =======
Legend:
M=Record Low Maximum (N/A for Saginaw)
H=Record High
L=Record Low
* Afternoon high was only 62

Also, Looking back at the number of 60s, 70s, 80s and 90s during June through August in Detroit, Flint and Saginaw reveals the following:
Quoting 784. hydrus:
I didnt..A penny for my thoughts then doubled it for Nino sake....not the wine mind you..:)


lol. Take it easy, hydrus.
These are some images of the 1982-1983 El Nino event that devastated some countries.





last one..

Australia checking 2 objects in search for plane

Australia's prime minister says objects possibly related to the missing Malaysia Airlines flight have been spotted on satellite imagery.

Prime Minister Tony Abbott told Parliament in Canberra on Thursday that a Royal Australian Airforce Orion has been diverted to the area to attempt to locate the objects. The Orion is expected to arrive in the area Thursday afternoon. Three additional aircraft are expected to follow for a more intensive search.
I really want to see a significant measuring of the thermocline before I would be inclined the expect a very strong el Nino.



1982 El Niño: the worst there ever was

The 1982-83 El Niño was the strongest and most devastating of the century, perhaps the worst in recorded history. During that period, trade winds not only collapsed-they reversed direction. Its effects were long lasting as well. It caused weather-related disasters on almost every continent. Australia, Africa, and Indonesia suffered droughts, dust storms, and brush fires. Peru was hit with the heaviest rainfall in recorded history-11 feet in areas where 6 inches was the norm. California had very high rainfall and the year was characterized by extensive flooding and landsliding. The event was blamed for nearly 2,000 deaths and more than $13 billion in damage to property and livelihoods. During this period, the thermocline off the South American coast dropped to about 500 feet. On September 24, in just 24 hours, sea-surface temperatures along a coastal village in Peru shot up 7.2 degrees F.
Quoting 789. nwobilderburg:


whats even the point of these models. theres no way you can predict something 672 hours out.


With one model run, certainly not. However, as the image says, it is an average of many model runs from the last few days. If the CFS runs time after time show an event, like colder than normal temperatures, it tends to have a much higher probability of occurring than if only one CFS run was showing it. The CFS does have skill in the 3-4 week range. This is how seasonal forecasts are made as well, with an average of many model runs.
799. flsky
I was living in Huntington Beach, CA during the 1982-83 El Nino. I had never experienced as much thunder, lightning and rain in all the years I'd lived in SoCal before. Had a waterspout come ashore about 2 blocks away and even had a couple of hail storms. Fun stuff!

Quoting 797. Grothar:
I really want to see a significant measuring of the thermocline before I would be inclined the expect a very strong el Nino.



1982 El Niño: the worst there ever was

The 1982-83 El Niño was the strongest and most devastating of the century, perhaps the worst in recorded history. During that period, trade winds not only collapsed-they reversed direction. Its effects were long lasting as well. It caused weather-related disasters on almost every continent. Australia, Africa, and Indonesia suffered droughts, dust storms, and brush fires. Peru was hit with the heaviest rainfall in recorded history-11 feet in areas where 6 inches was the norm. California had very high rainfall and the year was characterized by extensive flooding and landsliding. The event was blamed for nearly 2,000 deaths and more than $13 billion in damage to property and livelihoods. During this period, the thermocline off the South American coast dropped to about 500 feet. On September 24, in just 24 hours, sea-surface temperatures along a coastal village in Peru shot up 7.2 degrees F.
Quoting Grothar:
I really want to see a significant measuring of the thermocline before I would be inclined the expect a very strong el Nino.



1982 El Niño: the worst there ever was

The 1982-83 El Niño was the strongest and most devastating of the century, perhaps the worst in recorded history. During that period, trade winds not only collapsed-they reversed direction. Its effects were long lasting as well. It caused weather-related disasters on almost every continent. Australia, Africa, and Indonesia suffered droughts, dust storms, and brush fires. Peru was hit with the heaviest rainfall in recorded history-11 feet in areas where 6 inches was the norm. California had very high rainfall and the year was characterized by extensive flooding and landsliding. The event was blamed for nearly 2,000 deaths and more than $13 billion in damage to property and livelihoods. During this period, the thermocline off the South American coast dropped to about 500 feet. On September 24, in just 24 hours, sea-surface temperatures along a coastal village in Peru shot up 7.2 degrees F.

That whole period from 1982 through 1986 seemed liked one long disaster in California. I thought we had seen the worst of it in '83/83 until '86 came along. We had our hundred year floods in 1982, 1983, and then a 1,000 year flood in 1986. We had a landslide that buried 45 homes and flooding that was so bad in 1986 that I was trapped in one town going under water. I spent the night of my 40th birthday asleep in the hose bed of a fire truck because it would be the last place in town water would reach. I actually expected I was going to die, so I thought I might as well sleep though it. The water stopped rising about 2 inches before it come over my head. I never wanted to see rain again.
Power Outage in Canada on Thursday, 20 March, 2014 at 04:25 (04:25 AM) UTC.
Description
A number of hydro outages left thousands of Toronto homes without power Wednesday evening into the night. At 10:30 p.m., a Toronto Hydro spokesperson said that approximately 3,600 households remained without power. “We are starting to do restorations now, but in terms of when everybody is going to be restored, I don’t have this at that at this point,” said Toronto Hydro’s Tanya Bruckmueller Toronto Hydro explained that blowing salt used to de-ice city streets and sidewalks over the winter sometimes interferes with power lines, causing sparks that lead to fires. A wire down in the Danforth area started a fire at approximately 7 p.m., Toronto Hydro said. It is believed that the other outages had similar causes, Toronto Hydro said. She was unable to say how many customers were without power at the peak of the outage, however at about 8 p.m., the utility’s online outage map indicated that up to 22,000 customers were without hydro in the area bordered by Lawrence Ave. W, Bathurst St. and Weston Rd. The area of York University was also listed on Toronto Hydro’s site, which stated that up to 3,000 customers were without power between Sheppard Ave. W., Steeles Ave. W. and Driftwood Ave. Toronto Hydro said that these numbers are not exact.
Explosion in USA on Thursday, 20 March, 2014 at 04:27 (04:27 AM) UTC.
Description
Fire crews responded to an explosion and fire at the New York Power Authority in Lewiston Wednesday night. Niagara Falls Mayor Paul Dyster says no one was injured when one of the 13 transformers blew and started on fire around 7 p.m. at the Robert Moses Plant. The New York Power Authority says the plant’s automated water deluge system engaged and volunteer firefighters responded. After about an hour and a half, the blaze was under control and crews left the scene. The explosion caused a brief flicker in power in Niagara Falls, according to Mayor Dyster. Officials are still assessing the damage.
Landslide in USA on Thursday, 20 March, 2014 at 04:30 (04:30 AM) UTC.
Description
The St. Johns County commission voted unanimously to declare a local state of emergency to speed up the process for permits to protect homes from beach erosion. In the South Ponte Vedra Beach area about 10 home owners have lost 30 to 35 feet of sand along the rear of their property that went away during recent storms. Now with the state of emergency declared they can apply for a permit with the state Department of Environmental Protection and it will speed up the process to build a permanent wall along the beach here to protect their property." Chuck Herklotz is one of those home owners. Around 35 feet of his backyard has disappeared. " I have to protect my property and I need to have permission or a permit to be able to do that.," said Herklotz, who lives in the home with his wife and dog. "It allows the homeowner to react immediately," said County Engineer Press Tompkins."So the structure is not in any more danger but they still have to go through all the procedures." 'I am grateful," said Herklotz. "I would have been more grateful if they did it a week ago." The declaration of a local emergency allows work to begin immediately on a temporary wall that will stand three-feet high and keep homes from being destroyed. The St. Johns County commission voted unanimously to declare a local state of emergency to speed up the process for permits to protect homes from beach erosion.
Drought in USA on Thursday, 20 March, 2014 at 04:34 (04:34 AM) UTC.
Description
County commissioners voted unanimous to declare a drought state of emergency in Jackson County. Music to County Watermaster Travis Kelly ears. He said "this year potentially has been the lowest snowpack on record and so that's really going to affect the live stream flows for all the tributaries of the Rogue and Applegate Rivers. At last check, the Rogue Basin is at only 60% of total average precipitation and even more concerning average snowpack is at a mere 31%. If Governor John Kitzhaber approves the emergency drought declaration it will open up some options for the Oregon Water Resource Department. Kelly said "it will allow temporary transfers or placements of water, where you could switch from diverting water from a stream that's affected by the drought to a ground water source specifically a well." Governor Kitzhaber has until April 14th to review the emergency declaration. County commissioners said they are confident that he will approve it. The governor has already approved the emergency declaration in four of our neighbor counties including Lake and Klamath.
are we back
Quoting 806. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
are we back


looks like we are ..
Quoting 802. Skyepony:
Power Outage in Canada on Thursday, 20 March, 2014 at 04:25 (04:25 AM) UTC.
Description
A number of hydro outages left thousands of Toronto homes without power Wednesday evening into the night. At 10:30 p.m., a Toronto Hydro spokesperson said that approximately 3,600 households remained without power. “We are starting to do restorations now, but in terms of when everybody is going to be restored, I don’t have this at that at this point,” said Toronto Hydro’s Tanya Bruckmueller Toronto Hydro explained that blowing salt used to de-ice city streets and sidewalks over the winter sometimes interferes with power lines, causing sparks that lead to fires. A wire down in the Danforth area started a fire at approximately 7 p.m., Toronto Hydro said. It is believed that the other outages had similar causes, Toronto Hydro said. She was unable to say how many customers were without power at the peak of the outage, however at about 8 p.m., the utility’s online outage map indicated that up to 22,000 customers were without hydro in the area bordered by Lawrence Ave. W, Bathurst St. and Weston Rd. The area of York University was also listed on Toronto Hydro’s site, which stated that up to 3,000 customers were without power between Sheppard Ave. W., Steeles Ave. W. and Driftwood Ave. Toronto Hydro said that these numbers are not exact.


have never heard of that before .. sounds more like they are trying to pass the buck .. have lived where they have used salt for better then 50 years and we have never had a fire caused by the salt !!
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Quoting 808. whitewabit:


have never heard of that before .. sounds more like they are trying to pass the buck .. have lived where they have used salt for better then 50 years and we have never had a fire caused by the salt !!



It's happened in at least one other location, here in the U.S. even.
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Advice #2
TROPICAL LOW, FORMER TC GILLIAN (14U)
2:58 PM WST March 20 2014
=============================================

At 1:00 PM WST, Tropical Low, Former Gillian (1006 hPa) located at 8.1S 115.4E or 1090 km east northeast of Christmas Island has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The low is reported as moving west at 15 knots.

Ex-TC Gillian is expected to re-intensify into a tropical cyclone late on Saturday or on Sunday as it moves close to Christmas Island. Gales are not expected on the island during Thursday or Friday but may develop as early as Saturday afternoon. The period of greatest risk will commence overnight on
Saturday into Sunday as the system moves past Christmas Island.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
===================================

A Cyclone WATCH has been declared for Christmas Island
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Jakarta
Tropical Cyclone Advisory
TROPICAL LOW, FORMER TC GILLIAN (14U)
14:35 PM WIB March 20 2014
=============================================

At 13:00 PM WIB, Tropical Low, Former Gillian (1004 hPa) located at 8.7S 115.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 40 knots. The low is reported as moving northwest at 17 knots.

Dvorak Intensity:

Forecast and Intensity
========================
12 HRS 9.3S 111.0E - 25 knots (Tropical Low)
24 HRS 9.5S 108.5E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
48 HRS 10.3S 105.5E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
60 HRS 11.3S 104.6E - 35 knots (CAT 1)

Ex-tropical cyclone Gillian is an impact on the weather conditions in parts of Indonesia such as:

- The potential for moderate to heavy rain in the region of Bali, East Java and Yogyakarta
- Potential light rain in the region of NTB, Central Java, West Java, Banten, Jakarta and Lampung
- Ocean waves 2-3 meters likely to occur in the waters south of East Java - NTB, P. Waters south of Sumba, Savu P. southern waters, waters Kupang - P. Rote, Timor Sea south of NTT.
- Ocean waves 3-4 feet likely occurred in the Indian Ocean south of East Java - NTB
- The potential for strong winds over 25 knots in the southern part of Bali and NTB
good morning!..hope the canadians got power back....
Quoting 808. whitewabit:


have never heard of that before .. sounds more like they are trying to pass the buck .. have lived where they have used salt for better then 50 years and we have never had a fire caused by the salt !!


We have had that problem down here when we've had extended periods without rain. The power company will pressure clean the salt off the insulators on the main transmission lines from a helicopter.
24 metre debris spotted in the southern Indian Ocean.

Satellite pics reveal two pieces of debris, the largest 24 m, in a remote location, over 2,000 km west of Australia. No confirmation it's from the plane, and Australian air force planes are currently in the area to try to get clearer pics.

BBC

With the winter weather still upon us, this reminds me of back in 1974, then in April of 1974 we had the super outbreak!
We will have to wait and see!
According to NASA it doesn't look go for the home team! Link
Warm day across most of Florida.
Yesterday across Florida temps ranged from upper 50s on the N.E. Florida coast to upper 80s just southwest of Fort Myers.

From the Miami NWS Disco...

FOR SATURDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PUSH FURTHER EAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY SATURDAY MORNING
AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. DEWPOINTS WILL
BEGIN TO INCREASE AND TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARM WITH
HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S. A CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS
INDICATES THAT A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL IN THE VICINITY OF
SOUTH FLORIDA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...THEN MOVE BACK NORTH AS A
WARM FRONT DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS ALONG THE BOUNDARY. A RELATIVELY STRONG COLD FRONT IS
THEN FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES. DRIER AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES ARE THEN FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE
MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO.
Next Tuesday


For West Palm Beach...

GFS at 138 hours - Next Wednesday
More snow for the Mid Atlantic Region?
Quoting 822. GeoffreyWPB:
For West Palm Beach...



We'll have to see if that "chilly" 69 degrees for next Wednesday holds out. Our 7 day on the S.W. coast (Ft. Myers) is showing around 80 degrees for the same day.
But maybe a N.E. flow off the Atlantic cooling you off that day.

I'll add, I was amazed by how cold it was yesterday in N.E. Fl. I kept checking temps on Wunderground and they were stuck in the 50s yesterday afternoon while we had temps approaching 90 degrees in some inland locations of South Fl.
come on GFS..are you serious..I still only get rain?? I've become the Carriboy for snow..


00z GFS


06z GFS
Quoting 825. ncstorm:
come on GFS..are you serious..I still only get rain?? Ive become the Carriboy for snow..


00z GFS


06z GFS


Yeah, you're pushing it for late March. This has to be your last chance for the year. The setup is there.
My sister got snow in the Richmond Va area with the last system.
Heavy rains for Florida according to the CMC

Record breaking cold continues it's grip on North America.

Last 365 days
High Max 17,323
Low Min 20,402
Total 46,725

Low Max 34,872
Low Min 25,153
Total 60,015

YTD
High Max 2,883
High Min 2,993
Total 5,880

Low Max 8,384
Low Min 6,168
Total 14,562
Quoting 823. Sfloridacat5:
GFS at 138 hours - Next Wednesday
More snow for the Mid Atlantic Region?
Everything is falling into place nicely....


I AM SO HAPPY THIS MORNING!! I HOPE WE GET THE BIG STORM NEXT WEEK
It appears it's to late..I'm hearing whispers in the office this morning about the "s" word in the forecast....People are becoming more aware...They are now waiting and watching.One is hoping it can give them a extended weekend (It doesn't make sense because we still have to work from home regardless of the weather.)
Quoting 828. luvtogolf:
Record breaking cold continues it's grip on North America.

Last 365 days
High Max 17,323
Low Min 20,402
Total 46,725

Low Max 34,872
Low Min 25,153
Total 60,015

YTD
High Max 2,883
High Min 2,993
Total 5,880

Low Max 8,384
Low Min 6,168
Total 14,562



Ooooh, a Ice Age is creeping down maybe?
Quoting 822. GeoffreyWPB:
For West Palm Beach...

WOW if it gets only 69 in wpb..going to be alot cooler by me
well it sure feels like spring here now.......
Quoting 829. washingtonian115:
Everything is falling into place nicely....


Looking like you might get hit again.

I'm sure the kids love all the snow and snow days but I don't think they will like it at the end of the year when summer is cut short.
Quoting 808. whitewabit:


have never heard of that before .. sounds more like they are trying to pass the buck .. have lived where they have used salt for better then 50 years and we have never had a fire caused by the salt !!


It's that inferior Canadian salt no doubt.
yeah tuesday looks like a rainy stormy day here...
Quoting 833. Patrap:



Ooooh, a Ice Age is creeping down maybe?


Why the sarcasm? Back when record highs were outpacing the lows they got posted on here every day. I make one post about the fact its been cold here in NA for a year and you go off.
Quoting 836. jrweatherman:


Looking like you might get hit again.

I'm sure the kids love all the snow and snow days but I don't think they will like it at the end of the year when summer is cut short.
I hate that schools haven't got hip to the program.For Pete sakes we live in a area that get's snow storms.If a impending storm occurs they need to have online classes.They have this thing called edmodo where teachers can post online assignments.I'm not sure why they haven't put it to good use as of yet.
Quoting 764. sar2401:

Let me see if I can explain this whole "ping" thing in a way that makes sense. The transmissions came from one geostationary satellite owned by a company named Inmarsat. This satellite, in the southern hemisphere, mainly exists to interrogate transponders on airliners and collect information about things like engine performance and fuel usage. The information is then transmitted back to the airline company so they can look for maintenance problems and make modifications to the aircraft during servicing so the engines run more efficiently. The system has nothing to do with the flight transponder, which is standard, and something which all commercial aircraft are required to have.

On a 777, there's an option to buy a proprietary system called the Boeing Airplane Health Management System (BAHMS). The passive transponder is installed on all 777's. Only if the company subscribes to BAHMS is there an active transponder that sends a data stream with many parameters of airplane and engine performance. Malaysian Airlines did not subscribe to BAHMS.

The Inmarsat satellite sends out a handshake protocol once an hour. Any 777 passive transponder will respond to the handshake request by reflecting back a handshake with 16 bytes of data. Those 16 bytes of data include a bearing from the geostationary satellite and something like a computer password. It's not, exactly, but it's an appropriate analogy. It tells the computer on the satellite and the ground station not to wait for any further data because that transponder is from a plane which doesn't subscribe to BAHMS or a similar system used by Airbus. The computers then move on to processing data from subscribers.

My understanding is that the satellite sent out six hourly handshake requests after the flight transponder contact was lost that received a response. On the seventh and subsequent handshake requests, no response was received. Of the six positive responses, four were after the aircraft was no longer being tracked by Malaysian air defense radar, leading those in charge to believe that the plane flew on for at least four more hours.

The only data received by the Inmarsat satellite was a bearing of the handshake response from the geostationary satellite and the confirmation code that the airplane wasn't part of BAHMS. Period. Nothing about altitude, heading, or speed. Since the satellite wasn't changing position, only the aircraft could be as the bearing changed. Since I have no official part in this search, I don't know what the bearing data was. Geometrically speaking, the aircraft bearing could have been either positive or negative, since there was no second source of bearing data to allow triangulation, hence the north and south arc are both equally possible.

Mathematically, there's no way either arc could have been more likely. The northern arc passed over India, Pakistan, and Afghanistan, assuming MH370 didn't crash into the Bay of Bengal. These countries have obvious reasons to monitor their air space, and the air defense radar networks are the densest in the world. Even if 90% of the operators were as asleep at the switch as they Malaysians appear to have been, MH370 would still have been picked up as unidentified and fighters sent to investigate. I'm assuming that's why the northern arc has been ruled out.

The southern arc only passes over Indonesia and close to Australia - otherwise it's open ocean until MH370 would have run out of fuel. The Indonesian air defense radar network is, to put it kindly, substandard. It wouldn't be surprising that an unidentified aircraft would have passed over Sumatra undetected. That leaves Australia. Australia and the US have a very large array of over the horizon (OTH) radars located in the center of the continent. It's all secret squirrel stuff, but the array is believed to have a 5,000 mile range. The network allegedly exists to monitor things like missile launches from certain countries in Asia not friendly to the West. It's highly unlikely, if not impossible, that MH370 could have flown south toward Australia and not have been seen on this system.

From what I've read, the Australians are searching from the furthest southern point of the arc, working their way north. That makes sense from a SAR viewpoint - you always want to search in rather than trying to chase the target out. I have no idea what the Australian and US operators (and computers) saw or didn't see. Depending on what information they have, which will never be publicly released, the search may range from extremely difficult to essentially impossible. We lost our best chance to locate MH370 when the Malaysian radar saw the aircraft fly over peninsular Malaysia and took absolutely no action.


This is a very good post with information that clears up the reason for the "arc" described in news stories. Thanks very much for posting it. It reminds me of the saying, "The sea is so big and my boat is so small." Good luck to those searching for these people. It is one of those events that hits all of us in the heart when something like this happens.
I LOLed when the GFS showed snow before... now I'm actually going back and reanalyzing...still think nothing happens.
good morning everyone.....spring has sprung and el paso is forecast to have our first 80 degree day tomorrow...of course...we're also forecast to have wind....which means more dust....in fact i came home yesterday to see two tumbleweeds in my front yard....gotta take the good with the bad
look...El-Frio is coming...again...yawn...That system moves west just a tad, and there will be a bad storm for many folks..
Quoting 841. TropicTraveler:


This is a very good post with information that clears up the reason for the "arc" described in news stories. Thanks very much for posting it. It reminds me of the saying, "The sea is so big and my boat is so small." Good luck to those searching for these people. It is one of those events that hits all of us in the heart when something like this happens.
Yep..Sar has been much more concise in explaining the missing 777 than CNN..I find info here is much better than on T.V....Including the weather.
Quoting 845. Patrap:
Who wrote it.?
It be a "tad" mo sophisticated than that,easily.

Inmarsat Aviation safety
services update:2013 PDF:
Quoting 847. hydrus:
Who wrote it.?


Quote it and find out, dat be ez.
Quoting 843. ricderr:
good morning everyone.....spring has sprung and el paso is forecast to have our first 80 degree day tomorrow...of course...we're also forecast to have wind....which means more dust....in fact i came home yesterday to see two tumbleweeds in my front year....gotta take the good with the bad
only 2 tumble weeds I had put in a request for 200
Quoting 825. ncstorm:
come on GFS..are you serious..I still only get rain?? I've become the Carriboy for snow..


00z GFS


06z GFS
The nws says a potent shortwave will come in behind with accumulating snows way to early a lot could change
Quoting 845. Patrap:


Oh Pat..I didn't know you wrote poetry..how cute
Quoting 853. absurfer:
The nws says a potent shortwave will come in behind with accumulating snows way to early a lot could change


I hope so..
Quoting 855. ncstorm:


I hope so..
If anybody deserves snow its th people south of new bern east of Lumberton and north of myrtle beach
Quoting 855. ncstorm:


I hope so..
well ya did say ya wanted to build a snoman

a snoman you shall build
Quoting 857. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
well ya did say ya wanted to build a snoman

a snoman you shall build


according to the GFS its going to be difficult to do that with rain..
Quoting 781. washingtonian115:
1983 had another memorable D.C snow event.


I was in Princeton NJ for this one. 20" of snow. In the 5 mile, hour long commute home, snow depth increased from 2" to 7". Tried X country skiing that night. I was a young man (and foolish.. the plan was to ski six miles to a party at a friend's house). I got as far as my front yard where frequent VERY CLOSE lightning made me turn back. This was some of the worst lightning I've experienced in any storm at any time of the year. The combination of ligntning, heavy snow, and temperatures in the upper teens was awesome, a word I rarely use.
Quoting 858. ncstorm:


according to the GFS its going to be difficult to do that with rain..


still a ways out


Quoting 845. Patrap:


Very cute! I like it and it's touching.


Note the 2010 date though. Different words might apply to 2014 (so far)
Quoting 854. ncstorm:


Oh Pat..I didn't know you wrote poetry..how cute



I love poetry,

And it's not mine.

My Father who passed this Spring Thursday 11 years ago,well,

I do a tribute entry for Him every year here.

So, Spring has a special meaning for me.

Also, it was that date 11 years ago the 2nd Iraq war began.

Its also for the Men and women lost in that conflict.

So yes, I like poetry,as all Men are not equal in prose, nor pain.

For my Father, all of our Love to you,now

Luvto, are your numbers for the U.S. including Alaska (1.88% of the Earth's surface), or are they for the U.S. excluding Alaska (1.55% of the Earth's surface)? Either way, thanks so much, it really pays to be well informed
Quoting 855. ncstorm:


I hope so..


What's the latest snowfall of at least 1" you've received?
Australians are headed towards 2 Large pieces in the ocean that COULD be parts of that missing plane...fingers crossed they find it.
I wonder if this is how an ice age begins..a more snowy and cold winter after winter up in canada..year after year,decade after decade..possibly summertime heat lessens as the decades roll by..winter snows melt less and less each decade until........my guess is this is how it would happen..
I was looking at the long range forecasts from a few of the experts. It appears that there has been a warming event in the stratosphere over the Arctic. This means cold, stormy, and severe weather outbreaks. I never doomcast, but things could get quite rough for a large part of the U.S. Its a wait and see. It is a good bet the the polar jet will be well south of what is considered normal for early spring. With very cold air sure to be in place, a small change in the pattern could produce significant severe weather outbreaks. May see some record low temps in the deep south. Here are a couple long range links, one of them is Eliot Abrams from Accuweather, a very experienced Met..The other from EPAWA..Link....Link
Quoting 866. LargoFl:
Australians are headed towards 2 Large pieces in the ocean that COULD be parts of that missing plane...fingers crossed they find it.


The key word is "could." On one hand I hope so because at least we know the plane is down in the Indian Ocean. On the other hand, I hope it isn't because it still gives the families hope of one of the conspiracy theories that the plane has landed somewhere and they are all still alive.
Quoting 801. Jedkins01:


Neil deGrasse Tyson is one of my favorite scientists. He is so extremely knowledgeable and realistic.
Quoting 860. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


still a ways out


The models are have a little problem with this one. Especially the GEM, Which actually forms two lows, probably because of convection being detected in the gulf...Link
Quoting 864. jrweatherman:


What's the latest snowfall of at least 1" you've received?


I received a dusting of snow back in November..really thought we were going to have a great winter with that record early snowfall..I was wrong..I did receive up to 4 inches of sleet which is nothing but walking on hard concrete ice..and of course we got the ice storm after that one..but as far as snow itself..nothing to write home about..
Quoting 868. hydrus:
I was looking at the long range forecasts from a few of the experts. It appears that there has been a warming event in the stratosphere over the Arctic. This means cold, stormy, and severe weather outbreaks. I never doomcast, but things could get quite rough for a large part of the U.S. Its a wait and see. It is a good bet the the polar jet will be well south of what is considered normal for early spring. With very cold air sure to be in place, a small change in the pattern could produce significant severe weather outbreaks. May see some record low temps in the deep south. Here are a couple long range links, one of them is Eliot Abrams from Accuweather, a very experienced Met..The other from EPAWA..Link....Link


lets hope whatever comes is not to violent
only 2 tumble weeds I had put in a request for 200


the other day taking daughter to soccer practice we saw hundreds crossing the road....would have loved the opportunity to video it but was running late....first time i have aver seen so many like that..
Quoting 866. LargoFl:
Australians are headed towards 2 Large pieces in the ocean that COULD be parts of that missing plane...fingers crossed they find it.


According to ABC News, the satellite images were 4 days old and the Navy plan found nothing out there..its dark there now so difficult to see anything..
Quoting 874. ricderr:
only 2 tumble weeds I had put in a request for 200


the other day taking daughter to soccer practice we saw hundreds crossing the road....would have loved the opportunity to video it but was running late....first time i have aver seen so many like that..


they must of got lost looking for yer house

Quoting 874. ricderr:
only 2 tumble weeds I had put in a request for 200


the other day taking daughter to soccer practice we saw hundreds crossing the road....would have loved the opportunity to video it but was running late....first time i have aver seen so many like that..


I read something a while back how a town down there had a tumble weed invasion of sorts there were hundreds of em town workers also stated they never seen anything like it before
Quoting 873. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


lets hope whatever comes is not to violent
No matter what, it will be interesting from a meteorological perspective. One dude said that the set up was similar to 1960, 1993, 1983. All had significant weather events.
Just Checking in to see what if any weather is coming toward the Gulf coast. As I'm looking there might be more rain this weekend but then some cooling off (figures) for the first part of next week.... Oh well I'm ready for some warmer Temps just saying....

Hows everbody else today????


Taco :o)
Quoting 878. hydrus:
No matter what, it will be interesting from a meteorological perspective. One dude said that the set up was similar to 1960, 1993, 1983. All had significant weather events.
I know its the cmc
but at mar 30 shows nice warming trend taking shape

Volcanic Eruptions likely had a Role in recent Global Warming Slow-Down
Link
I read something a while back how a town down there had a tumble weed invasion of sorts there were hundreds of em town workers also stated they never seen anything like it before



we almost had normal rainfall last year.....more rain more growth....so now towards the end of our dry season we should see more when the winds blow
Quoting 880. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
I know its the cmc
but at mar 30 shows nice warming trend taking shape

people down the CMC, but it does have its moments, especially where the tropics are concerned.
884. NCstu
Quoting 881. hydrus:
Volcanic Eruptions likely had a Role in recent Global Warming Slow-Down
Link
The only problem with this is that AGW proponents say that there wasn't a slowdown
Quoting 872. ncstorm:


I received a dusting of snow back in November..really thought we were going to have a great winter with that record early snowfall..I was wrong..I did receive up to 4 inches of sleet which is nothing but walking on hard concrete ice..and of course we got the ice storm after that one..but as far as snow itself..nothing to write home about..


Got ya for this year.

I should have asked my question differently. What is the latest in the year you have ever received measurable snow? I think it would be very rare that you would get measurable snow this late in the year.
Quoting 885. jrweatherman:


Got ya for this year.

I should have asked my question differently. What is the latest in the year you have ever received measurable snow? I think it would be very rare that you would get measurable snow this late in the year.


I am not nc but the latest I have seen snow actually stick to the ground is april 15th after that its normally just to warm and it melts on contact
887. NCstu
Quoting 882. ricderr:
I read something a while back how a town down there had a tumble weed invasion of sorts there were hundreds of em town workers also stated they never seen anything like it before



we almost had normal rainfall last year.....more rain more growth....so now towards the end of our dry season we should see more when the winds blow
I saw a tumbleweed one time. I can't remember which Clint Eastwood movie it was though.
Quoting 882. ricderr:
I read something a while back how a town down there had a tumble weed invasion of sorts there were hundreds of em town workers also stated they never seen anything like it before



we almost had normal rainfall last year.....more rain more growth....so now towards the end of our dry season we should see more when the winds blow


Normal as in 2" for the year? I don't know just guessing. Getting humid here Ric and temps are nearing 80 already. 76 right now.

Moisture levels are beginning to increase as we wait for the next rain event for FL.



Is Another Winter Storm Brewing for Next Week?
891. VR46L
Quoting 883. hydrus:
people down the CMC, but it does have its moments, especially where the tropics are concerned.


Yep ,Keeps us entertained with Cat5 Hurricanes ,when a system of any strength rarely even forms where it shows a brutal Cane ...:)
I saw a tumbleweed one time. I can't remember which Clint Eastwood movie it was though.



ta da da boom!!!.......tumbleweeds and dust devils.....
gotta love hell paso
Quoting 886. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


I am not nc but the latest I have seen snow actually stick to the ground is april 15th after that its normally just to warm and it melts on contact


Here in Clearwater I've seen accumulating snow only once. That was January of '77. It was pretty cool to see.

I believe you are in Toronto. I got caught on the roads in a snowstorm there about 4 years ago. It was scary.
Speaking of the CMC because it's funny many GFS ensembles are showing this much rain as well across FL.



Quoting 894. StormTrackerScott:
Speaking of the CMC because it's funny many GFS ensembles are showing this much rain as well across FL.





Local mets are all over the place about next week. The chance is there for some more pretty good rains.
Quoting 895. jrweatherman:


Local mets are all over the place about next week. The chance is there for some more pretty good rains.


"Officially" the WPC folks have us in the 1" to 3" range for next Monday & Tuesday. Which is impressive as that would be on top of the 2" to 3" we had Monday Night.

Quoting 877. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


I read something a while back how a town down there had a tumble weed invasion of sorts there were hundreds of em town workers also stated they never seen anything like it before


National Geographic had a entire article on Tumbleweed last month.

Here is what you are probably referring to.





LINK TO ARticle


Link
Quoting 896. StormTrackerScott:


"Officially" the WPC folks have us in the 1" to 3" range for next Monday & Tuesday. Which is impressive as that would be on top of the 2" to 3" we had Monday Night.



I got 2.5". For March that is excellent. Another inch or two would be fine by me.
Hey all, surprised there's no new blog yet.. guess the good Doc is occupado..

Awesome day of weather here in mid TN today and tomorrow is supposed to hit 70! (cue Hallelujah Chorus).
Quoting 884. NCstu:
The only problem with this is that AGW proponents say that there wasn't a slowdown
A) There hasn't been a slowdown of any type in overall warming, though the rate of surface warming has indeed been lower recently than it was over the previous years.

What is truly alarming to most knowledgeable types is that, despite the presence of a number of cooling factors--the lack of recent deep El Nino events, the presence of volcanic aerosols, an unusually low and long solar minimum, a rapid increase in emissions of sulfur dioxide from China, and so on--the planet has continued to warm almost unabated.
Normal as in 2" for the year? I don't know just guessing. Getting humid here Ric and temps are nearing 80 already. 76 right now



9 inches is normal.....of course if we get more than an inch at a time we are going to see flooding....but we're classified as high dessert...a tad more rain for us
WOW!

Unusually Intense El Nino May Lie Ahead, Scientists SayLink

Tony Barnston, the chief forecaster at Columbia University's International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI), told Mashable that the odds of an El Nino event developing during the next six months have increased to about 60%, which is up from just over 50% on March 6.

Roundy cautioned that this doesn't necessarily mean that the current event will be stronger than 1997-98 was, but it does raise red flags.
img src="">
From longpaddock:

SOI values for 20 Mar 2014
Average for last 30 days -13.0
Average for last 90 days -0.7
Daily contribution to SOI calculation -28.3
Quoting 903. StormTrackerScott:
WOW!

Unusually Intense El Nino May Lie Ahead, Scientists SayLink

Tony Barnston, the chief forecaster at Columbia University%u2019s International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI), told Mashable that the odds of an El Nino event developing during the next six months have increased to about 60%, which is up from just over 50% on March 6.

Roundy cautioned that this doesn%u2019t necessarily mean that the current event will be stronger than 1997-98 was, but it does raise red flags.



I am happy about that..great news for me..
Quoting 906. hurricanes2018:



I am happy about that..great news for me..


I think we may already be seeing some sort of affects from this El-Nino building in already as the weather across FL has been very active the last few months and it's turned very dry across Indonesia and the Philippines recently.
Quoting 886. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


I am not nc but the latest I have seen snow actually stick to the ground is april 15th after that its normally just to warm and it melts on contact


Princeton NJ 1983, April 19, slushy accumulation on roads.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Cold and stormy.