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Calgary Flood May be Canada's Most Expensive Flood in History

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:53 PM GMT on June 24, 2013

The massive floods that devastated Calgary, Canada late last week have raced downstream, and are now bringing the highest flood waters ever recorded to Medicine Hat, Alberta's 5th largest city (population 67,000.) The flood peaked early Monday morning in Medicine Hat, which had evacuated 10,000 residents in anticipation of the flood. The homes of nearly all of the residents evacuated have received flood damage, according to CBC News.


Figure 1. A historic flood quenches the Flames: The inside of the Calgary Saddledome, in Calgary, Alberta, home to the National Hockey League's Calgary Flames. The Saddledome was flooded up to the 10th row, leaving the dressing rooms submerged on Saturday, June 22, 2013. (AP Photo/Calgary Flames)


Figure 2. The closed Trans-Canada Highway in Canmore, Alberta, Canada, along Cougar Creek on Friday June 21, 2013. Image credit: The Canadian Press.


Video 1. Ground-level video of the same stretch of the Trans-Canada Highway as shown in the aerial photo above. The rampaging Cougar Creek flows with incredible power.

Costliest flood in Canadian history?
The meteorological set-up for the flood began when the jet stream got "blocked" into a high-amplitude pattern that brought record heat to Alaska, but forced heavy rainfall to fall across the Bow River Basin on Wednesday night, with up to 190 mm (7.51”) falling in some areas over just a 24-hour period. Widespread heavy rains of 50.8 mm (2”) blanketed the entire river basin, sending the Bow River to near-record flood levels. At the peak of the flooding, the Bow and Elbow rivers were flowing through Calgary at three times their peak levels from a 2005 flood that caused $275 million in damage. Calgary, Canada's 5th largest city (population 1.2 million), was forced to evacuate 100,000 people, and the downtown area was submerged by the flood waters. Three people died. Over the weekend, 65,000 people were allowed to return to their homes, but the city remains under a state of emergency. The Calgary flood will be one of the most damaging floods in Canadian history. While it is too early to come up with a reliable figure for the damages, insurance industry experts said on Friday that the Calgary floods could cost $500 - $800 million--two to three times the cost of the city's 2005 floods. The June 2013 Alberta flood has the potential become the most expensive flood in Canadian history, exceeding the $800 million price tag of the April 4, 2011 flood in Southern Manitoba, along the Assiniboine River and Lake Manitoba.


Figure 3. The top ten most expensive natural disasters in Canadian history (not adjusted for inflation.) The most expensive flood in Canadian history occurred in April 2011, when flooding on the Assiniboine River and on Lake Manitoba caused $800 million in damage. Water levels rose so high in Lake Manitoba that some beach front homes ended up three km into the lake. Image credit: EM-DAT.

Wunderblogger Christopher C. Burt has a look at the disaster in his Friday post.

Jeff Masters

Flood

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting CybrTeddy:
If this were an Atlantic storm, we'd be on post 3,000 by now.
Depends also if it would affect land or not.
Quoting hydrus:
Here is a question for folks who like hurricane trivia...What year was the most active in the East Pacific.?


AS google slows to a crawl due to the legion of WU members frantically searching . . .
Quoting hydrus:
Here is a question for folks who like hurricane trivia...What year was the most active in the East Pacific.?
2009.
Quoting Civicane49:


1992, which is also a year that Iniki hit the Hawaiian Islands as a Category 4 hurricane.
That was quick 49.. The last named storm was Zeke finishing the list....and 1 depression after that.
Quoting doubtit:


I thought this was a blog about the tropics??


Not according to the blog boss. From earlier today.

Quoting JeffMasters:


I tend to blog about the 1st EPac storm of the season, then ignore all the others unless they are a threat to land or make it to Cat 5.

Jeff Masters

Quoting stormpetrol:


Actually 24 hours old and still showing west winds.



Actually quite recent! Double post, just trying to make a point, not that it will come anything, if I'm wrong, I got 2 big broad shoulders I can take it like a man :)


I don't think they send the HurHunters out much past 50 or 55 deg.      ...but I'm sure curions what's really going on in there right now.

Anyone know how far East they will send a HHunter aircraft?   
Quoting stormpetrol:


Having a cold Coors cheer :)

If you were here in Australia you could choose from about 1000 different beers. And I'd happily shout you one also. Very good catch with that OSCAT Pass
509. txjac
Quoting Stormchaser121:


Really now ...Texas might get some rain?
Thanks, Dr. Masters.

As usual, very well written and informative.
This is the 12z CMC ensemble at the time when the operational CMC has a hurricane hitting the Gulf Coast:



Assuming the ensemble is more reliable, which I usually do, then it is probably safe to largely disregard the CMC right now.
Quoting HurricaneAndre:
2009.
Good guess no..:)
Quoting txjac:


Really now ...Texas might get some rain?

Thats another scenario I saw.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
This is the 12z CMC ensemble at the time when the operational CMC has a hurricane hitting the Gulf Coast:



Assuming the ensemble is more reliable, which I usually do, then it is probably safe to largely disregard the CMC right now.
That ridge looks ominous.
Quoting mynameispaul:
Thanks, Dr. Masters.

As usual, very well written and informative.



a little late there dont you think?
Quoting hydrus:
That was quick 49.. The last named storm was Zeke finishing the list....and 1 depression after that.


That should indicate that I never have to look it up and came out of my head very instantly. :)
Quoting hydrus:
That ridge looks ominous.

Indeed. That seems to have been a common theme on a lot of model runs lately, if that sticks around to the peak of the season then we'll have some problems.
518. txjac
Quoting AussieStorm:

If you were here in Australia you could choose from about 1000 different beers. And I'd happily shout you one also. Very good catch with that OSCAT Pass


Lot's of microbreweries there?

Quoting AussieStorm:
This OSCAT pass is off the coast of Sydney.
35-40kts and a few 40-45kts wind barbs.







Good Evening Aussie,   or  er...     G'day Aussie,   Uhm   (What time is it over there, Thursday or something?)

I may be mistaken but aren't there a significant number of 50+ Knot flags in there as well?
Very good new microwave pass on Cosme, hit the entire storm.

Quoting Tazmanian:



a little late there dont you think?


Hey ya Thank him when ya can get here. :)
Quoting Civicane49:


1992, which is also a year that Iniki hit the Hawaiian Islands as a Category 4 hurricane.


Which was the year that all three NWS offices that issue hurricane advisories were hit by major storms.

Guam - Super Typhoon Omar, 4 - Pacific
Hawaii - Hurricane Iniki, 4 - Central Pacific
Miami - Hurricane Andrew, 5 - NHC

Yes, I had to Google the storm for Guam :D
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
This is the 12z CMC ensemble at the time when the operational CMC has a hurricane hitting the Gulf Coast:



Assuming the ensemble is more reliable, which I usually do, then it is probably safe to largely disregard the CMC right now.

I actually believe the CMC may be on to something. With the MJO pulse that should be moving into the Atlantic, the conditions should be right for tropical development. The CMC has shown a hurricane hitting the northern gulf coast for a few runs now. The GFS has been off and on with showing some sort of system coming out of the NW Caribbean as well. It is still a little ways out and the models will likely change, but I wouldn't discount the CMC yet.
Quoting auburn:


Hey ya Thank him when ya can get here. :)




that ture
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
This is the 12z CMC ensemble at the time when the operational CMC has a hurricane hitting the Gulf Coast:



Assuming the ensemble is more reliable, which I usually do, then it is probably safe to largely disregard the CMC right now.



I believe the CMC recently received a significant upgrade. It's been quite accurate with most of the storms in the EPAC and Atlantic this year in terms of track and intensity. It would be unwise to disregard the CMC seeing as the GFS also agrees with the idea of a cyclone developing in the WCARB/GOMEX.
Have not viewed the 12Z Euro...does it have a say in this?
527. beell
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I think the GFS' forecast of whatever developing heading west into Mexico is going to bust. The CMC's track of a cyclone moving north into the central Gulf coast seems more reasonable given the troughing forecast by the model.

Even the GEFS sees it:



A quick look at today's 850mb vort 00Z, 06Z, and 12Z show a disturbance in the gulf moving north AOA 240 hrs. The 18Z was the outlier.
Thank you, Dr. Jeff Masters.
Quoting wxchaser97:

I actually believe the CMC is on to something. With the MJO pulse that should be moving into the Atlantic, the conditions should be right for tropical development. The CMC has shown a hurricane hitting the northern gulf coast for a few runs now. The GFS has been off and on with showing some sort of system coming out of the NW Caribbean as well. It is still a little ways out and the models will likely change, but I wouldn't discount the CMC yet.

It's entirely possible we'll see Atlantic development with the MJO pulse, but I am always very hesitant to trust a model that has no ensemble support, it hardly ever works out. It may hang on to that system for a few more runs but I think it will drop it eventually, or at least modify it.
Quoting wxchaser97:

I actually believe the CMC may be on to something. With the MJO pulse that should be moving into the Atlantic, the conditions should be right for tropical development. The CMC has shown a hurricane hitting the northern gulf coast for a few runs now. The GFS has been off and on with showing some sort of system coming out of the NW Caribbean as well. It is still a little ways out and the models will likely change, but I wouldn't discount the CMC yet.
I hope is not a re-Cindy even though is cool that 2013 is having the same tracks as 2005 it would be boring if it continues.
Quoting txjac:


Lot's of microbreweries there?

Sure is lots. you'd need a few extra kidneys and livers if you wanted to try them all.
Springtime melt in Greenland: Late start, rapid spread
June 21, 2013



Surface melting of the snow and ice of the Greenland Ice Sheet had a slightly late start, but quickly spread over a significant area, extending over more than 20% of the ice sheet in early June and reaching above 2,000 meters (6,500 feet) elevation in some areas. Small melt lakes have begun to form on the ice sheet, as seen by the new USGS/NASA Landsat-8 satellite.


Figure 1. Cumulative surface melt days for mid-May to mid-June in Greenland. Note that the color scale is 0 to 30 days, rather than 0 to 100 days for the daily figure. Data are from the Greenland Daily Surface Melt 25km EASE-Grid 2.0 Climate Data Record. About the data


Credit: National Snow and Ice Data Center/Thomas Mote, University of Georgia

After the annual re-calibration of the melt algorithm in mid March (see March 18 post), very little melt was detected until May. A few southern coastal areas began melting in mid-May, followed by inland higher-elevation ice and all remaining coastal areas about June 3, when warmer conditions arrived. Surface melting reached the “Saddle” region of the ice sheet (located where the pale bluish band extends from the east to the west coastal zones in Figure 1) on June 11 and 13. Only the central eastern coast remains relatively melt free.
Quoting daddyjames:


Which was the year that all three NWS offices that issue hurricane advisories were hit by major storms.

Guam - Super Typhoon Omar, 4 - Pacific
Hawaii - Hurricane Iniki, 4 - Central Pacific
Miami - Hurricane Andrew, 5 - NHC

Yes, I had to Google the storm for Guam :D
Wow thanks for the piece of information I learn something new every day :D.Of the three Omar is my favorite name.
Quoting louisianaboy444:
Have not viewed the 12Z Euro...does it have a say in this?

It doesn't really show anything, but that is to be expected as it hardly ever picks up on long range tropical cyclone formation. It did pick up on Cosme from a ways out, but so did pretty much all the other models.

Quoting allancalderini:
I hope is not a re-Cindy even though is cool that 2013 is having the same tracks as 2005 it would be boring if it continues.


Repeating 2005 as a record year, is "Boring".    I went through Cindy and the K storm that shall not be named.      This is obviously some new use of the defined word "'Boring'" to which I am previously un-acustomed.   Please enlighten me.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

It's entirely possible we'll see Atlantic development with the MJO pulse, but I am always very hesitant to trust a model that has no ensemble support, it hardly ever works out. It may hang on to that system for a few more runs but I think it will drop it eventually, or at least modify it.

I'm pretty sure we see development from this pulse. I know it is usually good to be hesitant with a model that has little support from its ensembles, but I think this is different. The CMC has a very good track record for this season across the globe. Ever since predicting the twin Indian Ocean cyclones , it has been very good. Also, we know the GFS has tried to bring a storm into the gulf coast before. I know we need more consistency, but it definitely shouldn't be discounted.
Quoting MechEngMet:



Good Evening Aussie,   or  er...     G'day Aussie,   Uhm   (What time is it over there, Thursday or something?)

I may be mistaken but aren't there a significant number of 50+ Knot flags in there as well?


True but the wind barbs that are black are 'rain flagged', meaning that rain was heavy enough in that area to potentially cause some error in the speed or direction output. So I am not 100% sure it is a true correct reading.
Euro is needed to have a real consensus among the Global Models to latch on possible development.
539. wxmod
How bout that: wxmod was right all along. Pollution equals stagnation, not stronger hurracanes

Lower pollution levels linked to worse hurricanes

Reduced atmospheric pollution may have increased the ferocity and frequency of hurricanes

http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2013/jun/24 /pollution-natural-disasters

Quoting MechEngMet:



Repeating 2005 as a record year, is "Boring".    I went through Cindy and the K storm that shall not be named.      This is obviously some new use of the defined word "'Boring'" to which I am previously un-acustomed.   Please enlighten me.
Boring as in the tracks will be predictable..
541. beell
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Euro is needed to have the real consensus among the Global Models to latch on possible development.


At something less than 200-240 hrs might help as well. Not too early to look at the big picture.

Quoting AussieStorm:


True but the wind barbs that are black are 'rain flagged', meaning that rain was heavy enough in that area to potentially cause some error in the speed or direction output. So I am not 100% sure it is a true correct reading.
Thank you,  That makes sense.
Quoting MechEngMet:



Repeating 2005 as a record year, is "Boring".    I went through Cindy and the K storm that shall not be named.      This is obviously some new use of the defined word "'Boring'" to which I am previously un-acustomed.   Please enlighten me.
What I try to say is that 2013 should have its own tracks I am not saying 2005 was I am saying that each year should be unique in its own way.All the first two storms have the same or very similar to the first two of 2005.
Quoting washingtonian115:
Boring as in the tracks will be predictable..
Thanks you understand my point :D where have you been Washi?
Quoting skook:
Funnel trying to touchdown near the Gandy.  I was just over near there about an hour ago.




House damaged 5 blocks away from me - Weedon Island
CFS 828hrs. 27/07/2013

Twins.



Bahamas watch out in 864hrs 29/07/2013



I am not taking this serious as it's waaaaaaaaaaaaaaayyyyyyyyyyyyyyy out there.
Quoting wxmod:
How bout that: wxmod was right all along. Pollution equals stagnation, not stronger hurracanes

Lower pollution levels linked to worse hurricanes

Reduced atmospheric pollution may have increased the ferocity and frequency of hurricanes

http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2013/jun/24 /pollution-natural-disasters



Well That makes sense seeing that atmospheric pollutants work as Cloud Condensation Nuclei in which water droplets can condense...the fewer cloud condensation nuclei present the bigger the raindrops and the less raindrops are present...this is why for the most part the micro-physics of precipitation formation is so different in maritime atmospheres versus continental..I'm sure this all ties into together somewhere in the thermodynamic framework and the heat distribution that fuels these storms
I think model ensembles should be used mainly for the large-scale pattern while the operational models should be used for track and intensity.

Quoting washingtonian115:
Boring as in the tracks will be predictable..
The tracks of a roller coaster are predictable.    Do you know of anyone who describes that as 'Boring"?     

If every storm track of 2005 repeated itself, it would be anything but 'boring'.    I shudder just thinking about the possibilities.   

(Thanks for the +  )
Quoting AussieStorm:
CFS 828hrs. 27/07/2013

Twins.



Bahamas watch out in 864hrs 29/07/2013



I am not taking this serious as it's waaaaaaaaaaaaaaayyyyyyyyyyyyyyy out there.


Lol If anything this can maybe give us a glimpse of what the overall steering pattern looks like going into the heart of the season....Not good...not good at all
Quoting louisianaboy444:


Well That makes sense seeing that atmospheric pollutants work as Cloud Condensation Nuclei

I think it is more at decrease of albedo from reflective aerosols.

Quoting allancalderini:
What I try to say is that 2013 should have its own tracks I am not saying 2005 was I am saying that each year should be unique in its own way.All the first two storms have the same or very similar to the first two of 2005.


I completely understand where you are going.   I find the 2005 similarities interesting (and borderline disturbing), but not boring.    That's all, no biggie.
Quoting AussieStorm:
CFS 828hrs. 27/07/2013

Twins.



Bahamas watch out in 864hrs 29/07/2013



I am not taking this serious as it's waaaaaaaaaaaaaaayyyyyyyyyyyyyyy out there.
Like throwing a dart.
Sounds like a slice of hot and dry for Houston and environs. From local forecast discussion:

H85 TEMPS FCST TO CLIMB WELL >20C AND ALL THE
WAY UP TO NEARLY 26C NEAR CLL OVER THE WEEKEND. NUDGED DAYTIME TEMPS UP AREAWIDE AND ABOVE 100 FOR MANY LOCATIONS AND ALSO GAVE MORE FCST WEIGHT TO ECMWF MOS THAN BEFORE (ECMWF MOS IS SHOWING HIGHS AROUND 105 @ CLL THIS WEEKEND).
Whatkind of damage and power outagesare there from this evenings storms in Chicago?
Cosme is trying to develop a banding eye.

Quoting MechEngMet:



I completely understand where you are going.   I find the 2005 similarities interesting (and borderline disturbing), but not boring.    That's all, no biggie.
I find it interesting to and more if this storm that the Gfs and Cmc are portraying makes a track like Cindy but I want every year to be different that is all.No problem.
Quoting bappit:

I think it is more at decrease of albedo from reflective aerosols.


So that would in turn cause more shortwave radiation to get absorbed into the Ocean and clouds? Makes sense I guess....The radiational budget is quite the puzzle
Quoting washingtonian115:
Boring as in the tracks will be predictable..


Hey Washi. How ya been. You've got mail
Quoting unknowncomic:
Like throwing a dart.


Yup, so I threw it out there.
Bit of a stir over north florida and georgia tonight.



Is this of interest?
I imagine all in the Great Lakes region got quite a wallop this evening. Current progression of the Bow Echo.

CMC vs GFS 9 days ago! at 240 hrs !!!Doesn't mean nothing,but judge by yourself

CMC


GFS


Quoting unknowncomic:



Is this of interest?
Yeah,looks like a low will form there tonight and be in the Caribbean and be an invest maybe,MAYBE.
Hot off the press...... Get it while it's hot....

570. beell
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I think model ensembles should be used mainly for the large-scale pattern while the operational models should be used for track and intensity.


Would have to agree with you on that. We just may get a deep/strong trough somewhere/sometime.

And things do change of course.


Mean 700mb heights May 20th - June 22nd
Quoting stormchaser19:
CMC vs GFS 9 days ago! at 240 hrs !!!Doesn't mean nothing,but judge by yourself

CMC


GFS




Then what does it mean?
573. Relix
Some nice waves coming off....
Looks like 50-80mph reported in the Great Lakes area. Obviously multiple trees down.
Quoting unknowncomic:
Like throwing a dart.

Trip 20.
Trip 20.
Trip 1. Doh.
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


Then what does it mean?


The CMC is performing better than the GFS, Seems unbelievable!!!

ok night all.
Quoting Relix:
Some nice waves coming off....
Looks like they may have clearer sailing this year.
Quoting Tornado6042008X:
What%uFFFDkind of damage and power outages%uFFFDare there from this evenings storms(Derecho) in Chicago?

%uFFFD
%uFFFD
%uFFFD
%uFFFD
%uFFFD
%uFFFD

You can find a list of the current damage reports and number of customers with power here. This was not a derecho however. It was a mesoscale convective system with strong winds. Not every event like this is a derecho.
Quoting louisianaboy444:


So that would in turn cause more shortwave radiation to get absorbed into the Ocean and clouds? Makes sense I guess....The radiational budget is quite the puzzle


There is an atmospheric affect called Rayleigh scattering.
Particles less than 10 microns in size reflect blue light and allow red light to pass through.
That's why dust in the atmosphere causes red sunsets because blue light has longer distance to travel from a sun on the horizon.
Atmospheric scattering from aerosols can increase absorption of infrared radiation because blue light (shorter wavelengths) tends to be reflected back to space.
http://hyperphysics.phy-astr.gsu.edu/hbase/atmos/ blusky.html
Quoting sar2401:

You can find a list of the current damge reports and number of customers with power here. This was not a derecho however. It was a mesoscale convective system with strong winds. Not every event like this is a derecho.

It did actually met the criteria for a derecho. It was a low-end one for sure, but it was still a derecho. At least I think it did.
Quoting stormchaser19:


The CMC is performing better than the GFS, Seems unbelievable!!!
And both are doing better than the Euro imo.
I am back and wow what a drive that was, the cloud-to-ground lightning was intense, and the rain was blinding at times. Heard of a possible funnel cloud over Pinellas Park earlier. Don't know if anything touchdown or not. By the way I hope everybody is doing fabulous tonight.
Everyone remember the guy that jumped from the "edge" of space, Felix Baumgartner.

The meteorologist that was a key key part is now on weatherbrains

Very fascinating so far.
Wow, busy day so far.
369 reports and counting...

Quoting GTcooliebai:
I am back and wow what a drive that was, the cloud-to-ground lightning was intense, and the rain was blinding at times. Heard of a possible funnel cloud over Pinellas Park earlier. Don't know if anything touchdown or not.


Damage and tornado were confirmed by spotters

0035 4 E PINELLAS PARK PINELLAS FL 2785 8264 MULTIPLE TREES DOWN ... DOCK AGAINST HOUSE ... AND LANAI DAMAGED ON 87TH AVENUE. (TBW)
0040 5 ENE LEALMAN PINELLAS FL 2785 8261 BRIEF TORNADO ON GROUND NEAR WEEDON ISLAND POWER PLANT. (TBW)
Quoting sar2401:

You can find a list of the current damage reports and number of customers with power here. This was not a derecho however. It was a mesoscale convective system with strong winds. Not every event like this is a derecho.
Thank you sir.
591. beell
Quoting wxchaser97:

It did actually met the criteria for a derecho. It was a low-end one for sure, but it was still a derecho.


This was not a derecho. This particular type of storm system is a "dercheeto". Taking its name from the resemblance to a popular bow-shaped snack food.

Quoting sar2401:

You can find a list of the current damage reports and number of customers with power here. This was not a derecho however. It was a mesoscale convective system with strong winds. Not every event like this is a derecho.


I don't know if this was officially qualified as a Derecho but it looks like a low end one to me.

No need to look further than this to realize that the tropics are quiet. Not much going to happen until that semi-perm ULL departs the W-ATL.



Shelf Cloud and all

Looks like an El Nino year on that particular map.
Quoting ProgressivePulse:
Looks like an El Nino year on that particular map.
That could be our saving grace...then again some of the most destructive storms have hit during an El Nino year.
Quoting ProgressivePulse:
Looks like an El Nino year on that particular map.
What map?
Quoting GTcooliebai:
That could be our saving grace...then again some of the most destructive storms have hit during an El Nino year.
2004,right.
You can come to my blog if you want to.
WOW

NOAA investigating tsunami-like wave that struck Barnegat Inlet June 13.

Posted: Monday, June 24, 2013 8:18 pm | Updated: 10:16 pm, Mon Jun 24, 2013.
By JOEL LANDAU, Staff Writer

The National Ocean and Atmospheric Administration is investigating whether waves that hit the Jersey shore on the afternoon of June 13 was a tsunami.
According to NOAA’s West Coast/Alaska Tsunami Warning Center, the cause of the waves are still under investigation but could be due to a low end derecho-like wind system that hit the area as well as a dip in the land which allowed for the larger type waves.
Fisherman Brian Coen reported the conditions at the Barnegat Inlet at 3:30 p.m. and said the outgoing tide was amplified by strong currents which carried divers over the submerged breakwater - normally 3-4 feet deep and eventually exposed the rocks on the bottom, according to the warning center report.
Coen then reported a large wave, approximately 6 feet peak-to-trough and spanning across the inlet. The upper 2 feet of the wave was breaking.
“This wave occurred in conjunction with a reversal of the current such that even though the tide was going out, a strong surge was entering the inlet,” the agency reported. “This surge carried the divers back over the submerged reef and into the inlet from where they were picked up. On the south jetty three people were swept off the rocks which were five to six feet above sea level at the time. At least two were injured requiring medical treatment. There was no more strong activity after about 5 minutes.”
Meteorologist Joe Miketta said this could be the first reported tsunami in the region in more than 80 years – though there was a possible tsunami that hit the Jersey Shore in 1944. The tsunamis that hit here are not nearly as strong as some of the major natural disasters like the one reported in Japan in 2011.
Quoting ProgressivePulse:
Looks like an El Nino year on that particular map.


Now

July 01
Quoting Levi32:
Good evening, all.

Blog update:

Tropical Tidbit for Monday, June 24th, with Video
Levi are you going to FSU this fall?
There are some crazy hot temperatures expected in the Desert Southwest this coming weekend. Death Valley is expecting three or four consecutive days at 125 or higher, while Las Vegas is expecting a very rare June day (or two) at or above 115, something that hasn't happened since 1994.

DV

DV

On a somewhat related note, while banging around the NWS Las vegas site, I ran across a notification for this event, which includes WU's Christopher Burt as a speaker: http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/vef/deathvalley/.
Other than a slightly stronger than average TUTT, wind shear has been on point across the Atlantic so far this year. I'm not sure why people are expecting wind shear in June to be conducive for development.
Quoting HurricaneAndre:
2004,right.
2004: Charley, Frances, Ivan, and Jeanne, 1991: Andrew, 1983: Alicia, 1965: Betsy.
...COSME LIKELY TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON TUESDAY...
8:00 PM PDT Mon Jun 24
Location: 15.9°N 107.9°W
Moving: NW at 14 mph
Min pressure: 994 mb
Max sustained: 65 mph
Quoting GTcooliebai:
That could be our saving grace...then again some of the most destructive storms have hit during an El Nino year.
There will be no El Nino this year People!
TROPICAL STORM COSME DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032013
800 PM PDT MON JUN 24 2013

MICROWAVE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE INNER-CORE BANDING STRUCTURE OF
COSME HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...AND
A BANDING FEATURE NOW WRAPS ABOUT 75 PERCENT AROUND THE CENTER.
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND OBJECTIVE
ESTIMATES FROM UW-CIMSS SUPPORT INCREASING THE INTENSITY TO 55 KT.
THE ENVIRONMENT AROUND THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD BE CONDUCIVE FOR
CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AFTER THAT...THE
CYCLONE SHOULD QUICKLY WEAKEN AS IT TRAVERSES OVER MUCH COLDER SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. COSME IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY
96 HOURS. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE
DSHP AND LGEM MODELS...BUT LEANS CLOSER TO THE WEAKER LGEM FORECAST
AFTER 48 HOURS.

NO SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE TRACK FORECAST. COSME
CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST...305/12...ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO
AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. WHILE THE RIDGE BUILDS DURING
NEXT 24 HOURS...COSME SHOULD TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST...AND
REMAIN ON THAT HEADING FOR SEVERAL DAYS. BEYOND 72 HOURS...THE
LOW-LEVEL REMNANTS OF COSME ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
WESTWARD...FOLLOWING THE LOW-LEVEL TRADE WINDS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/0300Z 15.9N 107.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 25/1200Z 16.7N 109.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 26/0000Z 17.4N 112.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 26/1200Z 18.0N 114.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 27/0000Z 18.7N 116.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 28/0000Z 20.0N 122.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 29/0000Z 20.5N 127.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 30/0000Z 20.5N 132.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY/PASCH
Lightning hits NH Boy Scouts camp, injuring 23 scouts, 3 adults; many feel tingling sensation.

BELMONT, N.H. — A lightning strike at a New Hampshire Boy Scouts camp has injured nearly two dozen scouts.

Scouts spokesman Greg Osborn says no one was directly hit by the lightning Monday at the Griswold Scout Reservation. He says some of the 23 scouts and three adults who were injured complained of tingling and burning sensations and all were treated by camp nurses before being hospitalized as a precaution. He says those who were treated are doing well and are in good spirits.

The lightning struck during a big evening storm just outside Belmont at Camp Bell, one of two camps at the reservation.

Firefighters say the lightning struck near where the Boy Scouts had gathered. Osborn says the Scouts were under shelter at the time.
Quoting gulfbreeze:
There will be no El Nino this year People!


From BOM ENSO update 18/06/2013

Despite a recent cooling trend in the far eastern tropical Pacific, ENSO indicators have generally remained neutral (neither El Nino nor La Nina) since mid-2012. While the vast majority of climate models surveyed by the Bureau suggest neutral ENSO conditions will persist through the winter, the development of La Nina in 2013 cannot be fully ruled out.


So you'd be correct there.
Quoting gulfbreeze:
Levi are you going to FSU this fall?


No, my senior year at UAF begins this fall.
Quoting gulfbreeze:
There will be no El Nino this year People!


We're a lot closer than you think. The waters just below the surface in the equatorial Pacific are relatively warm, so it would not take a huge downwelling event to generate an El Nino, which is probably why the models are struggling to resolve it.

However, there is thus far no evidence of an El Nino looking at the SST anomalies. And while some people still don't believe in the widely touted ENSO lag period, I am one of them that still do based on personal forecasting experience. Going by that, the atmosphere is still not behaving anything like an El Nino event would suggest, so even if one were to develop, the resulting global pattern change associated with the warming episode would not be immediate.

I should note that there appears to be quite a lot of disagreement amongst the meteorological community as to whether or not the lag period actually exists. Until I see reason to be convinced otherwise, I still plan to hold on to that belief.

Regardless, what's important is that there are currently no signs of an El Nino yet, even with the current upward MJO pulse and its anomalous low-level westerly flow accompanying it.
Quoting stormchaser19:


Now

July 01


I was joking mainly, it will subside. However, the semi-perm ULL is still right in the same location on July 1st :-)
616. SLU
Quoting Levi32:
Good evening, all.

Blog update:

Tropical Tidbit for Monday, June 24th, with Video


W-O-N-D-E-R-F-U-L
Evening all. Looks like we could have some bad weather coming our way. One thing for sure. It will be HOT!

Hottest weather on the way, then storms

Upper-level high pressure will strengthen and build over the region later this week and set up over the Four Corners by this weekend. The result will be hot, dry weather with temperatures warming into the middle to upper 90s.

Friday through this weekend, a "cold" front will push into the Red River Valley. This, coupled with higher moisture in the atmosphere could bring rounds of thunderstorms to the area. The storms may be strong to possibly severe if temperatures make it into the middle to upper 90s.

The wet pattern will linger through early next week.

Has anyone heard about the Tsunami wave hitting the east coast today along with PR, United Kingdom, and Canada

Quoting ncstorm:
Has anyone heard about the Tsunami wave hitting the east coast today?
What tsunami wave?
Quoting AussieStorm:
WOW

NOAA investigating tsunami-like wave that struck Barnegat Inlet June 13.

Posted: Monday, June 24, 2013 8:18 pm | Updated: 10:16 pm, Mon Jun 24, 2013.
By JOEL LANDAU, Staff Writer

The National Ocean and Atmospheric Administration is investigating whether waves that hit the Jersey shore on the afternoon of June 13 was a tsunami.
“This surge carried the divers back over the submerged reef and into the inlet from where they were picked up.


Are you just as surprised that they have submerged reefs off the Jersey shore also? ;)
Quoting daddyjames:


Are you just as surprised that they have submerged reefs off the Jersey shore also? ;)


Was this today?
Blog update on Cosme for those interested.
Quoting weatherbow:

What tsunami wave?


Im not sure..saw some facebook posts about it..wanted to clarify it here
Quoting Levi32:


No, my senior year at UAF begins this fall.
I thought you where going to FSU my son got his masters from FSU go Noles. Anyway thanks for all that you do for the blog you have been very educational for an old man and I have leaned a lot about T-weather. I may not have the education in weather but I do have a love for it and this blog has been very helpful a lot of good people here !!!
625. SLU
Quoting Levi32:
Good evening, all.

Blog update:

Tropical Tidbit for Monday, June 24th, with Video


What was the MJO pulse like in July 2005 when we had the two record breaking Caribbean hurricanes?
Quoting ncstorm:


Was this today?


Apparently it was a few days ago on the 13th during the derecho event.

LOL - the spell checker wants to make derecho into "chowder".
Season Summary as of:
June 24, 2013

Total number of storms: 2

Number of named storms: 2

Number of hurricanes: 0

Number of major storms: 0

The ULL in the W-ATL is negating any rain for us on the east coast of FL. Some spotty showers and storms but it's been a wave killer so far. Another one approching likely to be a non-producer.
Quoting SLU:


What was the MJO pulse like in July 2005 when we had the two record breaking Caribbean hurricanes?


Phases 1 and 2, as you would expect.

Quoting gulfbreeze:
I thought you where going to FSU my son got his masters from FSU go Noles. Anyway thanks for all that you do for the blog you have been very educational for an old man and I have leaned a lot about T-weather. I may not have the education in weather but I do have a love for it and this blog has been very helpful a lot of good people here !!!


Ditto all of that from me as well - including the FSU part!
Quoting daddyjames:


Are you just as surprised that they have submerged reefs off the Jersey shore also? ;)


If you read the report included in the article. It might of came from the severe bow-echo earlier that day.
Quoting daddyjames:


Apparently it was a few days ago on the 13th during the derecho event.

LOL - the spell checker wants to make derecho into "chowder".


Im seeing several facebook posts today from weather pages stating one happened today??
Quoting SLU:


What was the MJO pulse like in July 2005 when we had the two record breaking Caribbean hurricanes?
Dennis hit the Florida Panhandle 7/10/05 as a cat 3 center went over my house!
The Chicago Blackhawks just won the Stanley Cup. Not quite sure how to feel as a Wings fan being knocked out by said Hawks in round two... Some silver lining knowing we gave them the toughest time.

On an on-topic note, Cosme is really getting his act together. Hurricane by tomorrow morning IMO with this eyewall progressing.

Quoting Levi32:


Phases 1 and 2, as you would expect.



Levi, can I get a link to that archive? Modifying the link doesn't work. I had it on my old computer.
Quoting AussieStorm:
Lightning hits NH Boy Scouts camp, injuring 23 scouts, 3 adults; many feel tingling sensation.

BELMONT, N.H. — A lightning strike at a New Hampshire Boy Scouts camp has injured nearly two dozen scouts.

Scouts spokesman Greg Osborn says no one was directly hit by the lightning Monday at the Griswold Scout Reservation. He says some of the 23 scouts and three adults who were injured complained of tingling and burning sensations and all were treated by camp nurses before being hospitalized as a precaution. He says those who were treated are doing well and are in good spirits.

The lightning struck during a big evening storm just outside Belmont at Camp Bell, one of two camps at the reservation.

Firefighters say the lightning struck near where the Boy Scouts had gathered. Osborn says the Scouts were under shelter at the time.



This is ironic. I just got down with Boy Scout camp, and the COPE program did a random rendition on how to do the lightning-safe crouch.

"Under shelter" does not equate with getting struck. Wherever the kids were, they were not "under shelter".
Quoting ncstorm:


Im seeing several facebook posts today from weather pages stating one happened today??


No buoys are flashing so there hasn't been one on the last 24hrs. Link

Tsunami station in event mode
(within previous 24 hours)


Here is the West Coast/Alaska Tsunami Warning Center, NOAA/NWS report. Link
Quoting Slamguitar:
The Chicago Blackhawks just won the Stanley Cup. Not quite sure how to feel as a Wings fan being knocked out by said Hawks in round two... Some silver lining knowing we gave them the toughest time.

On an on-topic note, Cosme is really getting his act together. Hurricane by tomorrow morning IMO with this eyewall progressing.


We had a two game lead, series was 3-1, and we blew it. This isn't the news I wanted to see.

Yeah, I think we will have a hurricane in the next 12hrs.
@BrandonIveyWX Brandon Ivey
A lightning shot I got north of Wichita this evening over interstate I-135.

Another bumpy day in store tomorrow for the Midwest:

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I made a new blog on solely Cosme if you want to read it:

Tropical Storm Cosme approaching hurricane intensity but poses no serious threat


I don't.
Quoting KoritheMan:


Levi, can I get a link to that archive? Modifying the link doesn't work. I had it on my old computer.


It's just the main BOM MJO page
Quoting AussieStorm:


If you read the report included in the article. It might of came from the severe bow-echo earlier that day.


Oops, I did forget to add the -like to the end of derecho - was simply using the term that they used in the article.
Quoting Levi32:


It's just the main BOM MJO page


Gotcha. Thanks.
646. SLU
Quoting Levi32:


Phases 1 and 2, as you would expect.



Thanks. Even then it didn't seem to be as amplified as the EURO forecast for the next couple of weeks.
Quoting Levi32:


It's just the main BOM MJO page
Levi can you post the link to the JMA MJO forecast from your video? Thanks in advance
Quoting KoritheMan:


I don't.

You and Drew, always tryin' to be hard to get along with, I swear...
Quoting TomTaylor:
Levi can you post the link to the JMA MJO forecast from your video? Thanks in advance


What am I, Link Depot? Lol.

JMA
(click to enlarge)


Three large water spouts today in Croatia @anitavanvoorst
652. SLU
By just taking a cursory glance of the data supplied by Levi, it's amazing that August 2004 was able to produce a record breaking 8 named storms with the MJO in the opposite side of the world for almost the entire month.



@Nick_Arp02 Nick Arp
Impressive ground hugging #shelf cloud in #Iowa today.
Quoting SLU:
By just taking a cursory glance of the data supplied by Levi, it's amazing that August 2004 was able to produce a record breaking 8 named storms with the MJO in the opposite side of the world for almost the entire month.



I think the MJO doesn't have less effect in August/September but I could be wrong on that.
655. vis0

Quoting GTcooliebai:
Question. How long will it take a tropical wave to move from the West Coast of Africa all the way across the Atlantic to the Western Caribbean? The reason I ask is the CMC is showing development in 7 days in the Western Caribbean and I am trying to figure out if it will come from a low latitude tropical wave coming across the Atlantic. If no VID is embeded try, http://tinypic.com/m/hs6btd/2





Levi is

L inks
E ducation
V ideos
I nformation

: )
Quoting Levi32:


What am I, Link Depot? Lol.

JMA


LOL - Levi could you comment on the UKMET model that was used in the recent Nat Geosciences article regarding modeling aerosol impact and Atlantic Hurricane activity. Is this the same as the one used by the UKMET to issue forecasts of TS activity?

Italy; A violent tornado hit the city Termoli in the region Molise after it made landfall as a waterspout around 3 pm. Accompanied weather was large hail and lots of rain which caused flooding in homes, shops and the train station. The tornado was on the ground for about 10 minutes and uprooted trees, ripped of the roofs and damaged billboards.
The local authorities are working hard to clean up the mess. There are thankfully no reports of injuries so far.

Video 1.


Video 2.


Video 3.
Quoting ProgressivePulse:
The ULL in the W-ATL is negating any rain for us on the east coast of FL. Some spotty showers and storms but it's been a wave killer so far. Another one approching likely to be a non-producer.



Will it ever move? Its sad to see all the rain go west and away.
Good Night Peeps, Hope everyone back in the Northern Illinois area is OK. That looked like a nasty wind event. Stay Safe All, Stay Dry, Stay Warm.....
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

You and Drew, always tryin' to be hard to get along with, I swear...


Look who's talking dear buddy old pal. :D
662. 1344
I don't care too too much for ATL storms, and I personally just track the EPAC and the Southern Hemisphere storms. However, I do think we will see 3 storms in July in the ATL. As for the EPAC, Cosme is kinda cool.
I think the MJO has less effect in August/September but I could be wrong on that.
Quoting FIUStormChaser:



Will it ever move? Its sad to see all the rain go west and away.


This time of year it's tough to kick the ULL's that don't want to move. The upper pattern is mostly in the Great Lakes region. It will be here for the forseeable future anyways.
Quoting daddyjames:


LOL - Levi could you comment on the UKMET model that was used in the recent Nat Geosciences article regarding modeling aerosol impact and Atlantic Hurricane activity. Is this the same as the one used by the UKMET to issue forecasts of TS activity?


No, the paper used the HadGEM2-ES model. The UKMET hurricane forecast is based off of the GloSea5 and "ECMWF system 4."
If we get an El Nino this year which type is more likely to occur Cold Tongue El Niño or Warm Pool El Niño?
Quoting Levi32:


No, the paper used the HadGEM2-ES model. The UKMET hurricane forecast is based off of the GloSea5 and "ECMWF system 4."


Thanks - are they gonna switch?
Good evening friends!

Latest Southern Oscillation Index values

SOI values for 24 Jun 2013

Average for last 30 days: 8.0
Average for last 90 days: 6.4
Daily contribution to SOI calculation: -6.5
Quoting ProgressivePulse:


This time of year it's tough to kick the ULL's that don't want to move. The upper pattern is mostly in the Great Lakes region. It will be here for the forseeable future anyways.


More heat and humidity without the cooling afternoon rains, I don't recall anything like this in recent times, in past years always the storms orignated in the west and made it to the east coast by the evening.
As good as forecast as you can get with what we got. Rain has been on the very low side of the forecast on the east coast so adjust accordingly.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 414 AM EDT MON JUN 24 2013/

DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR AND NAM ANALYSIS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWED A DEEP
LAYER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...WITH EAST TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
EARLIER IN THE NIGHT WERE DIMINISHING AS A WEAK PERTURBATION MOVED
WEST. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO THE REGION
TODAY...BUT PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL
AROUND 1.7 INCHES. 500MB TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND -7C...AND
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL NOT BE THAT IMPRESSIVE. SO EXPECT ONLY
GARDEN VARIETY STORMS. THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN LARGELY UNCHANGED
THROUGH THE MIDDLE TO END OF THE WEEK. A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
REGION OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS EACH DAY...WITH SHOWERS
AND STORMS SHIFTING TO THE INTERIOR AND GULF COAST EACH AFTERNOON
INTO THE EARLY EVENING AFTER THE GULF COAST SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN NEAR NORMAL AS WELL...WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. HEAT INDICES WILL RANGE FROM
95-100 EAST AND 100-105 INTERIOR AND WEST. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
REMAIN THE 70S TO NEAR 80.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST LATE IN THE WEEK
AS AN UPPER TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE SOUTHEAST AND INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. THIS WILL ALLOW THE FLOW TO SHIFT MORE TO THE SOUTH LATE
IN THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. PRECIPITABLE WATERS LEVELS ARE
FORECAST TO INCREASE BACK TO 1.9-2 INCHES. SO THE HIGHEST RAINFALL
CHANCES WILL SHIFT TO THE LAKE REGION...AND THERE WILL ALSO BE
BETTER CHANCES OF AFTERNOON STORMS FOR THE EAST COAST METRO
REGION.
This Day in Weather History

Did you know that...

On this date in 1975, Eastern Airlines Boeing 727 crashed 2,400 feet short of the runway at JFK Airport in New York City. The incident claimed the lives of 113 of the 124 people on board. Theodore Fujita studied the crash and discovered that it was caused by a microburst that was not experienced at the tower because it was held back by a seabreeze front.
672. SLU
Quoting gulfbreeze:
Dennis hit the Florida Panhandle 7/10/05 as a cat 3 center went over my house!


That's cool. The closest I've been to the eye of a hurricane was when Hurricane Dean 2007 with 100mph winds passed about 20 miles north of my location. The winds dropped to low end TS force briefly at the time of the eye making its closest approach but then they returned from the south-west with a vengeance.
Looking at the CMC and my local discussion, it could happen. I wouldn't expect any interest until this weekend or early next week at the earliest. The wave is there and producing however.
El Nino or not, i still think it will be too late for the atmosphere in the tropical Atlantic to respond to an El Nino scenario, thus i will hold onto my prediction of 20/11/5. Conditions this year are already quite favorable, relatively speaking, in our basin.
675. 1344
Quoting GTcooliebai:
If we get an El Nino this year which type is more likely to occur Cold Tongue El Niño or Warm Pool El Niño?


Not happening probs.
Evening. For all you late-nighters (including myself)...

Just did another blog post for the Atlantic hurricane season...I went out on a limb but predicted a risk of tropical cyclone development in the western Caribbean Sea between now and 120 hrs (5 days)...blog post has my reasoning...but the pattern is quiet similar to what we saw just before Barry's disturbance showed up....
1996 Hurricane Bertha..know too well..

There will be no El Nino.

This monstrosity in the EPAC is likely having an effect over a large area and enhancing shear in the region. According to forecast it will be gone by Friday.
River flooding south of Sydney.

Norwa, South coast, New South Wales.

Hey NCH!
Your link is taking me back to the current blog.
Quoting ncstorm:
1996 Hurricane Bertha..know too well..



yes you got the eye of her
Quoting nigel20:
Hey NCH!
Your link is taking me back to the current blog.

It's working now...thanks!
Quoting nigel20:
Hey NCH!
Your link is taking me back to the current blog.


Works fine for me... Link
Anyone knows which has been the largest TC in the EPAC?
Extreme Weather in ST Louis, MO USA on Tuesday, 25 June, 2013 at 03:25 (03:25 AM) UTC.
Description
A strong thunderstorm has left thousands of people without power and some roads under more than a foot of water in the St. Louis region. The Metro East was especially hard hit, with Ameren Illinois reporting 13,000 customers in the dark at one point. By 10 p.m., that number was down to about 7,000. St. Clair County was under a flash flood watch from the National Weather Service. Flooding left as much as a foot of water in some places. The Weather Service reported a foot of rain water on roads near Scott Air Force Base and Mid-America Airport. Between 6 and 9 p.m., almost 4 inches of rain fell in that area. The Weather Service also reported strong scattered wind gusts. Gusts reportedly reached up to 50 mph in St. Clair County. Flood warnings also were issued for several Illinois communities including Belleville, Cahokia, Centreville, East St. Louis, Washington Park, Brooklyn and Fairmont City and for travelers on Interstate 64 from exit 9 to exit 34. In Missouri, Ameren showed about 4,000 power outages. The outages included more than 3,000 customers in St. Louis and St. Charles counties. The Weather Service issued a flash flood warning for St. Charles and Warren counties in Missouri. In Warren County, 2.4 inches of rain was reported in a two-hour period. In Wentzville, a house was heavily damaged by a fire that authorities suspect was started by lightning. The rain prompted the Muny to cancel the last performance of "Spamalot." At Busch Stadium, the Cardinals game against the Texas Rangers got under way about 10 p.m. after a three-hour delay.
Ten more villages marooned by flood in India. That Low in the Bay of Bengal is expected to dump more rain.
Quoting daddyjames:


Are you just as surprised that they have submerged reefs off the Jersey shore also? ;)


I don't see any evidence that the wave was caused by a tsunami. There hasn't been any significant geological activity anywhere near the east coast, and anything large enough to create a tsunami would register.
Complex Emergency in USA on Tuesday, 25 June, 2013 at 03:00 (03:00 AM) UTC.
Description
Roughly 200,000 Commonwealth Edison customers were without power Monday evening after a powerful line of storms raked across the Chicago area. By the 9 p.m. hour, officials said that number had been reduced to about 155,000. The storms, which prompted National Weather Service officials to issue tornado warnings for DeKalb, Kane, Kendall and LaSalle counties, also lead to a temporary ground stop at Chicago's O'Hare International Airport. At Midway International, officials there cleared the grounds and ordered travelers away from terminal windows. The dark skies brought with them gusty winds and brief, heavy downpours. Closer to Chicago, the weather delayed several trains on at least two Metra lines. Commuters were advised to check MetraRail.com for up-to-date service alerts. A flash flood watch was issued Monday until 7 p.m. for the far western suburbs. DeKalb, Ogle, Lee and LaSalle counties had already received up to three inches before Monday's storms. The Fox River began experiencing minor flooding in the alerted areas around 10 a.m. Sunday and is expected to continue to flood, rising to near 10.3 feet by midnight Monday. The water will fall below flood stage Tuesday morning, the National Weather Service said in an alert. The rain and thunderstorms are expected to diminish by Monday night with some storms possible Tuesday and again Wednesday. Highs remain in the upper 80s to low 90s through much of the week.
689. JRRP
Gooooood Morning Wunderbloggers.

Hope this post finds everyone well.

Cosme still forecasted to only affect the Fish - which is great news. Hopefully it will make it to hurricane strength soon.
2013JUN25 043000 3.9 990.8/ 2.4 / 63.0 3.8 3.8 3.8 NO LIMIT ON OFF -57.26 -69.92 UNIFRM N/A 16.40 108.46 SPRL

ASCAT of that wave in the Central Atlantic.

COSME
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
2013JUN25 043000 3.9 990.8/ 2.4 / 63.0 3.8 3.8 3.8 NO LIMIT ON OFF -57.26 -69.92 UNIFRM N/A 16.40 108.46 SPRL


Hey TA...TS Cosme looks awesome!
Quoting nigel20:

Hey TA...TS Cosme looks awesome!
The sheer size reminds me of Western Pacific Typhoons.
697. vis0

Quoting ncstorm:
Has anyone heard about the Tsunami wave hitting the east coast today along with PR, United Kingdom, and Canada
Northern Mid-Atlantic Ridge, saw no Tsu warn


000
WEXX32 PAAQ 242214
TIBATE

PUBLIC TSUNAMI INFORMATION STATEMENT NUMBER 1
NWS WEST COAST/ALASKA TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER PALMER AK
614 PM EDT MON JUN 24 2013

...THIS IS A TSUNAMI INFORMATION STATEMENT FOR THE U.S. AND CANADA
EAST COASTS/ GULF OF MEXICO STATES/PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS...

EVALUATION
----------
* THERE IS NO TSUNAMI DANGER FOR THE AREAS LISTED ABOVE.

* BASED ON THE EARTHQUAKE LOCATION NEAR THE MID-ATLANTIC RIDGE
A DAMAGING TSUNAMI IS NOT EXPECTED.

* AN EARTHQUAKE HAS OCCURRED WITH PARAMETERS LISTED BELOW.


PRELIMINARY EARTHQUAKE PARAMETERS
---------------------------------
* MAGNITUDE 6.6
* ORIGIN TIME 1804 EDT JUN 24 2013
1704 CDT JUN 24 2013
1804 AST JUN 24 2013
2204 UTC JUN 24 2013
* COORDINATES 10.9 NORTH 42.4 WEST
* DEPTH 12 MILES
* LOCATION NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC RIDGE


NEXT UPDATE AND ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
--------------------------------------
* THIS WILL BE THE ONLY WCATWC MESSAGE FOR THIS EVENT
UNLESS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE.

* REFER TO THE INTERNET SITE WCATWC.ARH.NOAA.GOV FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

* CARIBBEAN COASTAL REGIONS OUTSIDE PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS SHOULD REFER TO THE PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER
MESSAGES AT PTWC.WEATHER.GOV.

$$




Quoting Skyepony:
Things are finally starting to tapper off here along the West Coast of FL.
Quoting nigel20:

Hey TA...TS Cosme looks awesome!

Hey Nigel. Yeah, it should be a hurricane within 12 hours. Developing a nice eye/eyewall.
Quoting GTcooliebai:
The sheer size reminds me of Western Pacific Typhoons.

Agreed.
CMC Still with the Gulf storm.
This will be a good test of the CMC and how it should perform this year... I am thinking it will perform well based on how it as done so far.
Quoting stormchaser19:
CMC Still with the Gulf storm.

Never know it may very well happen
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Err..



It's getting that look...
ADT agrees with you - just a hair shy of cat 1 equivalent.

2013JUN25 050000 3.9 990.7/ +2.3 / 63.0 3.8 3.5 3.5 NO LIMIT ON OFF -32.86 -64.06 UNIFRM N/A 16.75 108.87 SPRL



Quoting Civicane49:


It's getting that look...
I hope all the owls , sheep and pigs on Clarion island stay safe from cosme
The Caribbean is starting to wake up again.
This is near the Caribbean mass.
Wind shear is starting to die.
Quoting Levi32:


What am I, Link Depot? Lol.

JMA
Thanks. Turns out I already had the link lol
Moist environment for it.
Cosme
Have the 9 mexican military guys been evacuated off clarion
Quoting MeteorologistTV:
Have the 9 mexican military guys been evacuated off clarion


Hopefully Cosme dumps a lot of rain on the island. Reading about it, there is not a lot of fresh water available. The storm could replenish the brackish lakes. Possibly make them more fresh than salt water too.
Quoting stormchaser19:
CMC Still with the Gulf storm.


I know I can't put much faith into a model run 222 hours out, but darn it, I want to. I really do. ;)
Good morning. Latest news overview from India. Apparently they've managed it to save most of the affected people to at least temporary shelters now.

10 Latest Developments
Uttarakhand: helicopters battle rain, thousands stuck in Badrinath
Edited by Surabhi Malik (With inputs from agencies) | Updated: June 25, 2013 12:46 IST
Dehradun: After heavy rain overnight and this morning, the weather has improved in Uttarakhand paving way for Air Force helicopters to fly and evacuate nearly 6,000 people who are stranded in different parts of the state, most of them near the holy town of Badrinath. Many of them are now in temporary relief camps with access to food and water.

Europe: Continuing rains batter the East


Edit: Livestreaming impressions from Dresden at Elbe-River (rain, rain and more rain)
Quoting stormchaser19:
CMC Still with the Gulf storm.
Wow i just get off and the darn CMC still has it hitting us next thursday. Ugh! But wassup nite crew I see Cosme almost there! Im guessing 70 mph by 5am edt
Yeah - I think Cosme will be REALLY close if not a minimal hurricane by the 5am.
yeah Im still going with 70 but i think 11 am edt will be 75
A 0430Z AMSUB pass tells the tale:

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM COSME ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032013
200 AM PDT TUE JUN 25 2013

...COSME LIKELY TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.5N 109.5W
ABOUT 385 MI...615 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 445 MI...715 KM S OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.35 INCHES
TROPICAL STORM COSME DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032013
200 AM PDT TUE JUN 25 2013

MICROWAVE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THE INTERNAL
AND OVERALL CONVECTIVE CLOUD STRUCTURES HAVE CHANGED LITTLE SINCE
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. IN FACT...UW-CIMSS ADT ESTIMATES HAVE
LEVELED OFF AT ABOUT T3.6/57 KT FOR MORE THAN 12 HOURS. THE CLOUD
PATTERN HAS RECENTLY BECOME ELONGATED NORTH-TO-SOUTH AND THE CENTER
IS LOCATED NEAR THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD MASS. A
BLEND OF DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB...RECENT ADT VALUES...
AND CIRA AND CIMSS AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 47 KT AND 49 KT...
RESPECTIVELY...YIELDS AN AVERAGE INTENSITY OF 55 KT...WHICH WAS
USED FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN REMAINS
SYMMETRICAL AND CONTINUES TO IMPROVE.

MICROWAVE IMAGERY AND CONTINUITY WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK
WERE USED TO DETERMINE THE LOCATION OF COSME...WHICH YIELDS AN
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 290/14 KT. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING. COSME IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A STRONG AND WESTWARD-EXPANDING MID-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. AFTER THAT...A RAPIDLY WEAKENING COSME
SHOULD BE STEERED GENERALLY WESTWARD BY THE LOW-LEVEL TRADE WIND
FLOW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY AND IS SITUATED ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE TRACK
GUIDANCE SUITE...AND FOLLOWS THE SPEED OF THE CONSENSUS MODEL TVCA.

UW-CIMSS SHEAR ANALYSES OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS INDICATE THAT COSME
HAS AGAIN MOVED INTO A MODERATELY UNFAVORABLE MID-LEVEL SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT...WHICH MAY BE THE CAUSE OF THE RECENT DISHEVELED
LOOKING INNER-CORE CONVECTIVE CLOUD PATTERN. HOWEVER...THE CYCLONE
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO MORE FAVORABLE MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL FLOW
REGIMES LATER TODAY...ALLOWING COSME TO STRENGTHEN INTO A HURRICANE
BEFORE THE SYSTEM REACHES SUB-25C SSTS IN ABOUT 36 HOURS. STEADY TO
RAPID WEAKENING IS THEN FORECAST TO BEGIN AFTER THE CYCLONE MOVES
OVER MUCH COOLER WATERS BY 48 HOURS...AND COSME IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME A NON-CONVECTIVE REMNANT LOW BETWEEN 72 AND 96 HOURS. THE
NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS INTENSITY
FORECAST...AND REMAINS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE DECAY-SHIPS AND LGEM
INTENSITY MODELS.

THE EXTENSIVE 12-FT SEAS RADII IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE PROVIDED BY
THE TAFB IS THE RESULT OF LONG-FETCH SOUTHERLY CROSS-EQUATORIAL
FLOW GENERATING LARGE SWELLS...WHICH WILL IN TURN AFFECT MUCH OF
THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO AND THE BAJA PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE LARGE SWELLS PROPAGATE NORTHWARD.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/0900Z 16.5N 109.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 25/1800Z 17.2N 111.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 26/0600Z 17.9N 113.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 26/1800Z 18.5N 116.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 27/0600Z 19.3N 118.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 28/0600Z 20.4N 124.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 29/0600Z 20.9N 129.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 30/0600Z 20.9N 134.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
It's been a busy storm day in the CONUS storm wise.
It's about 0530 EDT, 2.5 more hours until today's total closes but we have 401 total SPC prelim reports at this time.



Today is the big day.

President Obama to take action on climate change.

Link
Quoting Walshy:
Today is the big day.

President Obama to take action on climate change.

Link
I suppose we'll see, but my gut instincts tell me the new initiative will be a watered-down list of half-measures and non-measures containing gifts to the fossil fuel industry, though presented as something bold and necessary. There'll be talk of needing to meet the energy demands of the 21st century, and how that means we can't abandon fossil fuels even as we move to improve clean and sustainable technologies. He'll tell us that "clean coal" is the answer; that fracking is safe and should be implemented even more widely; that billions more in tax dollars will be given to ExxonMobil and friends so these "proven leaders" in the field of energy can do more R&D; that "fear-mongering" environmentalists are wrong about the dangers of tar sands; and so on. Bottom line: any energy initiative from this center-right President can be guaranteed to have been cobbled together by people friendly to Big Energy and politically-fearful of upsetting others in Washington beholden to fossil fuel interests. IOW, don't expect much real or substantial.

I hope I'm wrong.
Moon shining bright on the roof of the barn this morning; waiting for the sun to pop up and take its turn. With the damp air and the light breeze, it is a more comfortable morning here in Northern Holmes County, FL.
Morning,

Strong tropical wave approaching Barbados and the central windward islands. expect blustery conditions with thunder showers and gusty winds. sometimes gusting to 25-30 knots.
Quoting Neapolitan:
I suppose we'll see, but my gut instincts tell me the new initiative will be a watered-down list of half-measures and non-measures containing gifts to the fossil fuel industry, though presented as something bold and necessary.


Lol, sigh, Nea. Here's a little morning sunshine for you and the White House and everybody else ... Link
733. SLU
Quoting stoormfury:
Morning,

Strong tropical wave approaching Barbados and the central windward islands. expect blustery conditions with thunder showers and gusty winds. sometimes gusting to 25-30 knots.


It's not as strong as he GFS indicated days ago. The weather shouldn't be too bad.
I think it is safe to say that Cosme is a hurricane.

735. beell
A continuing look at the modeled large weakness/inverted trough moving across the Atlantic-supported by an ULL/TUTT and enhanced deep layer cyclonic turning along the axis of the weakness.

Strong easterly trades continue through the run well into the Carbbean. However, the west African monsoon trough is beginning to make its first real westward extension into the eastern Atlantic. Areas along the ITCZ but south of the SAL may be ripe for some development of an opportunistic tropical wave that is lucky enough to phase with the ridge weakness.

All frames valid Sunday, June 30th


06/25 00Z GFS 200mb


06/25 00Z GFS 700mb


06/25 00Z GFS 850mb
good morning the earth seems to be going through a population boom. this has forced people out into areas that were inhabited just 10 yrs ago. that could explain why we are seeing a spike in deaths due to the climate.


Quoting Neapolitan:

Bottom line: any energy initiative from this center-right President can be guaranteed to have been cobbled together by people friendly to Big Energy and politically-fearful of upsetting others in Washington beholden to fossil fuel interests.

Hi Nea. You see BHO as "center right"!!

Holy cow.
94 in Alaska? Weather extremes tied to jet stream
By SETH BORENSTEIN / AP Science Writer / June 25, 2013

WASHINGTON (AP) — The jet stream, the river of air high above Earth that generally dictates the weather, usually rushes rapidly from west to east in a mostly straight direction.
But lately it seems to be wobbling and weaving like a drunken driver, wreaking havoc as it goes.
...
‘‘I've been doing meteorology for 30 years and the jet stream the last three years has done stuff I've never seen,’’ said Jeff Masters, meteorology director at the private service Weather Underground. ‘‘The fact that the jet stream is unusual could be an indicator of something. I'm not saying we know what it is.’’


...
SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE
NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS COLLEGE PARK MD
1613Z MON JUN 24 2013

NCEP TESTS LIVE DATA DISSEMINATION FROM THE WCOSS ON
TUE JUN 25...

WCOSS - WEATHER AND CLIMATE OPERATIONAL SUPERCOMPUTING
SYSTEM

CCS - CENTRAL COMPUTING SYSTEM...CURRENT OPERATIONAL SYSTEM

NCEP/NCO WILL DISSEMINATE DATA FROM THE WCOSS ON TUE JUN 25.
THE TEST WILL START AROUND 1230Z AND CONCLUDE AROUND 2100Z.
THE TEST WILL BEGIN WITH THE DISSEMINATION OF THE 06Z GDAS AND
CULMINATE WITH THE 1500Z SREF.

WE EXPECT A DISCONTINUITY IN RUN TO RUN MODEL CONSISTENCY. FOR
EXAMPLE...THE ENSEMBLE SOLUTION SET MAY CONTAIN A DIFFERENT
ENVELOPE OF SOLUTIONS AS COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS RUN OR THE RUN
THAT WOULD BE AVAILABLE ON THE CCS.

ANOTHER LIVE TEST IS SCHEDULED NEXT WEEK.

THE OFFICIAL IMPLEMENTATION DATE IS SCHEDULED FOR JULY 16.
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Hi Nea. You see BHO as "center right"!!

Holy cow.
Yes, I do. Along with an increasing number of others. But so far as today's climate change initiative, on what do you suppose the President will focus?
Quoting Neapolitan:
Yes, I do. Along with an increasing number of others. But so far as today's climate change initiative, on what do you suppose the President will focus?


Yep, I'm also with you on this one. Good morning!
Quoting Neapolitan:
Yes, I do. Along with an increasing number of others. But so far as today's climate change initiative, on what do you suppose the President will focus?


Trashing coal.
Quoting Neapolitan:
Yes, I do. Along with an increasing number of others. But so far as today's climate change initiative, on what do you suppose the President will focus?

I think you hit it on the head, Nea --including the center-right thing...and sometimes he isn't too center. :)
AccuWeather.com‏@breakingweather11 s
Dangerous tstorms in store for the Dakotas into the Midwest & western Great Lakes through tonight:
Link
Quoting Luisport:
AccuWeather.com‏@breakingweather11 s
Dangerous tstorms in store for the Dakotas into the Midwest & western Great Lakes through tonight:
Link
AccuWeather.com‏@breakingweather2 h
Nearly 42 million at risk for severe storms in the #Midwest today and tonight, including #Chicago. http://ow.ly/mmdpv
Obama aims to sidestep Congress with new initiatives to reduce carbon emissions

By Michael O'Brien, Political Reporter, NBC News

Link
NASA studies permafrost and carbon emissions.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hZSM8GcmJKg
Obama to push unilateral action against climate change
The Washington Times, Monday, June 24 ???, 2013
In regards to Obama's climate speech I agree with Nea that is will be filled with mediocrity and incentives for polluters. However, I do see the conservative end of the argument as well, although it is generally for the wrong reasons. A lot of people, including myself, don't want to see more bureaucracy at a cost to the American public just so China can have cheaper coal. Not one dime can go to the government which has time and time shown itself incompetent to take on these sort of tasks. I'm in favor of the James Hansen solution which is a steadily increasing fee collected at port for fossil fuels. The fees would be distributed 100% to all legal US citizens. Let the market decide which alternative energies are the best. This would also spur innovation that could make its way to China and others. Obama simply create more government at the cost of the public. I really think some people just want to stick it to Exxon-Mobil rather than come up with an effective solution to the fossil fuel economy.
Good Morning..00z CMC








Quoting HondosGirl:
Moon shining bright on the roof of the barn this morning; waiting for the sun to pop up and take its turn. With the damp air and the light breeze, it is a more comfortable morning here in Northern Holmes County, FL.


I'm in Fort Walton Beach and we had a nice rain shower come in off the GOM this morning. Seems we're in a wet pattern along the coast which is a good thing, July through Sept. has been really dry in the past few years.
Nea, Not sure if you've read this. Might take you some time 254 Pages. I will read through it in the morning.

Turn down the heat : climate extremes, regional impacts, and the case for resilience - full report(pdf)

Abstract:
This report focuses on the risks of climate change to development in Sub-Saharan Africa, South-east Asia and South Asia. Building on the 2012 report, Turn Down the Heat: Why a 4C Warmer World Must be Avoided, this new scientific analysis examines
Quoting barbamz:
Obama to push unilateral action against climate change
The Washington Times, Monday, June 24 ???, 2013
FYI, the Times is an ultra-conservative tabloid with a strong denialist bent (as you can see from the article to which you linked) and is thus best avoided in any serious discussion about climate change--and, well, pretty much anything else, too...
Quoting stoormfury:
Morning,

Strong tropical wave approaching Barbados and the central windward islands. expect blustery conditions with thunder showers and gusty winds. sometimes gusting to 25-30 knots.


I was in Barbados on Thursday and went snorkeling on the Jolly Roger! Saw two Green Sea Turtles in their natural environment, pretty cool! Weather was great then!
Good morning, all. Hoping those 20% coverage of storms pan out in Southern Illinois today. Otherwise, what a sunset last evening!! GORGEOUS. OMG!!

Natalie :)
I not seeing much activity in the atlantic right now wow
When congress starts talking about fossil fuel prices, untethered to costs or availability, and it's effects on both the US economy in addition to health and the global environment, THAT will be a debate worth listening to.
Such a discussion would mean Republicans and Democrats are both in the conversation, upping the possibility of meaningful action.
(I'm not talking about the Climate Change is Real preaching.) I AM talking about the effects of gas prices on businesses and job creation that no politician has dared to mention.
762. SLU
Quoting CaribBoy:


The GFS forecast for a strong wave passing through the islands today has apparently busted.
the atlantic is so quiet. i was hoping to log on and find it not so boring lol.

i am hope that there will be something to track soon
the atlantic is so quiet. i was hoping to log on and find it not so boring lol.

i am hope that there will be something to track soon
Quoting Neapolitan:
Yes, I do. Along with an increasing number of others. But so far as today's climate change initiative, on what do you suppose the President will focus?



Side-stepping Congress?
Good morning, everyone. Afternoon, Barbamz and VR. Evening, Aussie. A beautiful 72 degrees this morning with a nice cool soft breeze. If I wasn't taking my son to his cardiology appointment, I'd be working out in the garden.

Looks like Cosme will hit hurricane strength this afternoon.

Breakfast's on the sideboard: Beignets covered with powered sugar, thick sliced bacon, biscuits and gravy, egg, cheese and sausage casserole, and for those wanting a healthier breakfast, fresh fruit, yogurt and strawberry and cream cheese waffle sandwiches. Enjoy!
Good Morning All..
Looks like a early wake up rain for Chicago area..

Romeoville, IL (KLOT) - Base Reflectivity (0.5)



Parts of Nebraska as well..

Topeka, KS (KTWX) - Base Reflectivity (0.5)

Quoting aislinnpaps:
Good morning, everyone. Afternoon, Barbamz and VR. Evening, Aussie. A beautiful 72 degrees this morning with a nice cool soft breeze. If I wasn't taking my son to his cardiology appointment, I'd be working out in the garden.

Looks like Cosme will hit hurricane strength this afternoon.

Breakfast's on the sideboard: Beignets covered with powered sugar, thick sliced bacon, biscuits and gravy, egg, cheese and sausage casserole, and for those wanting a healthier breakfast, fresh fruit, yogurt and strawberry and cream cheese waffle sandwiches. Enjoy!

YES. Never had a Beignet before, but always willing to try new stuff. Although if they are covered with powdered sugar, that alone will make everything alright!! :)

Filling up today, because I am taking my three year old niece fishing today. We need the fuel. That is for sure.

THANK YOU.

Nat
Quoting pcola57:
Good Morning All..
Looks like a early wake up rain for Chicago area..

Romeoville, IL (KLOT) - Base Reflectivity (0.5)



Parts of Nebraska as well..

Topeka, KS (KTWX) - Base Reflectivity (0.5)


Okay rain, stay away from the Windy City. The Blackhawks need to celebrate and can't have ANY interruptions!!!!
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Next Update a Hurricane?



sure look like one!
through 384 hours
Quoting allahgore:
Side-stepping Congress?
One would hope he would; there hasn't been such a do-nothing, block-POTUS-at-any-cost Congress in decades, if ever, so if anything meaningful is to be done, an end-run is probably the only way. But given the President's record on matters such as climate change, I wouldn't count on it.
Quoting HurricaneCamille:
the atlantic is so quiet. i was hoping to log on and find it not so boring lol.

i am hope that there will be something to track soon
It is only June 25th. Tropical waves probably wont become more pronounced until around early to mid July or so.
Quoting HurricaneCamille:
the atlantic is so quiet. i was hoping to log on and find it not so boring lol.

i am hope that there will be something to track soon


Woke up today in Cayman not a cloud in the sky makes it extra hot. The daytime storms at least bring the temperature down a bit. Going to be quiet for a while.
Quoting Neapolitan:
One would hope he would; there hasn't been such a do-nothing, block-POTUS-at-any-cost Congress in decades, if ever, so if anything meaningful is to be done, an end-run is probably the only way. But given the President's record on matters such as climate change, I wouldn't count on it.


What time does he speak?
Have any other models grabbed onto what the CMC has generated? An all day soaker would be great for my lawn but a cat 2 not so much.
78 degrees here with 90%rh and dew at 75..
Clear skies with winds 6mph from the ENE..
Sticky "air you wear" for today..

Beach looking cloudy and moist..
Not really a beach day that I would want..

Good Morning! 15.03" of rain now for the month of June on the northside of Orlando. Much more on the way.

GFS 8day precip accum.
Quoting ncstorm:
through 384 hours


A strong wave over me but is 16 days out. GFS busted with wave moving thru the Lesser Antilles now.
Quoting 69Viking:


I was in Barbados on Thursday and went snorkeling on the Jolly Roger! Saw two Green Sea Turtles in their natural environment, pretty cool! Weather was great then!


That's great to hear you enjoyed yourself in. We have quite a few turtles that come ashore on the south and west coasts to nest. An amazing experience that I had was when Tomas was approaching, we were at the beach and a nest had hatched that same evening. The poor little things were disoriented, heading inland, so a few of us helped them back towards the water. Apparently the lights from the buildings were drawing them, as the moon was covered by cloud.
Quoting mcdsara1:
Have any other models grabbed onto what the CMC has generated? An all day soaker would be great for my lawn but a cat 2 not so much.


No other model is onboard. Constantly Making Cyclones is what the CMC is.

CMC still show a gulf storm in the long-range.

hmmm....very interesting i wonder if it on to something. :o
Quoting Neapolitan:
FYI, the Times is an ultra-conservative tabloid with a strong denialist bent (as you can see from the article to which you linked) and is thus best avoided in any serious discussion about climate change--and, well, pretty much anything else, too...


Okay, then I may provide a counterweight with a link to the WP

Obama climate strategy represents piecemeal approach
By Juliet Eilperin, Tuesday, June 25, 12:00 PM

What's really difficult for a pair of german eyes is the just-two-party-system in the US, where one is beleaguering the other in deep enmity, causing a halt to many important initiatives - with no alternatives. In Germany with five parties or more with chances to get seats in the local and central parlament the political landscape is far more open. F.e. in Swabia (Baden-Wuerttemberg, economical very potent!) the Greens became the strongest party in 2011, so that this country got for the first time in Germany a green President (who is also a convinced catholic btw, so no "lefty"). Other parties were forced already for decades to address some of their green subjects, as the conservative party of our chancellor Merkel recently did very much. - And this flexibility is reflected in the newspaper landscape as well, even when most of them still tend either to a more conservative or more liberal side.

(My speech of the day, uff) But back to weather ...

Only citizens get the money? So legal US residents dont get a dime even though the pay taxes? Seems wrong to me.
Quoting wilsongti45:
In regards to Obama's climate speech I agree with Nea that is will be filled with mediocrity and incentives for polluters. However, I do see the conservative end of the argument as well, although it is generally for the wrong reasons. A lot of people, including myself, don't want to see more bureaucracy at a cost to the American public just so China can have cheaper coal. Not one dime can go to the government which has time and time shown itself incompetent to take on these sort of tasks. I'm in favor of the James Hansen solution which is a steadily increasing fee collected at port for fossil fuels. The fees would be distributed 100% to all legal US citizens. Let the market decide which alternative energies are the best. This would also spur innovation that could make its way to China and others. Obama simply create more government at the cost of the public. I really think some people just want to stick it to Exxon-Mobil rather than come up with an effective solution to the fossil fuel economy.
cosme is beautiful wow.

sure look like its close to hurricane strength now! if not already a hurricane wow
MJO is coming into the Caribbean so we will have to watch for the potential of a system in the Caribbean or Gulf next week. Either way a monsoon type trough is going to set up across the Gulf and FL later this weekend so it is possible things could get interesting.


Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
Issued by NWS


NWS Prognostic Report Discussion Page Click HERE

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1

000
FXUS21 KWNC 242003
PMDTHR
US HAZARDS OUTLOOK
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 PM EDT JUNE 24 2013

SYNOPSIS: A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MAKE ITS WAY FROM THE MIDDLE OF THE
COUNTRY TO THE EAST COAST DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THIS OUTLOOK PERIOD. THIS
FRONT MAY STALL AS IT TRACKS EASTWARD TO THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD, BRINGING
UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE EASTERN STATES FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF TIME. DRY
AND HOT CONDITIONS ARE PREDICTED FOR THE WEST FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD. WHILE THE
TROPICAL ATLANTIC IS CURRENTLY QUIET, SYSTEM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE IN WEEK 2.

HAZARDS

HEAVY RAIN FOR NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND, THU-FRI, JUN 27-28.

HEAVY RAIN FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA, SAT-SUN, JUN 29-30.

EXCESSIVE HEAT FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY, THU-FRI, JUN 27-28.

EXCESSIVE HEAT FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST, FRI-MON, JUN 28-JUL 1.

MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR EAST-CENTRAL ALASKA, THU-FRI, JUNE 27-28.

MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST, THU-MON, JUN 27-JUL 1.

MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN AND THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES, TUE-THU, JUL 2-4.

FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF ILLINOIS, WISCONSIN, MINNESOTA, NORTH DAKOTA, AND
TEXAS.

SEVERE DROUGHT FOR PARTS OF THE GREAT PLAINS, RIO GRANDE VALLEY, ROCKIES,
SOUTHWEST, GREAT BASIN, CALIFORNIA, AND HAWAII.

DETAILED SUMMARY

FOR THURSDAY JUNE 27 - MONDAY JULY 01: AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE INITIALLY EXPECTED
TO BE CENTERED IN THE SOUTHEAST IS PREDICTED TO LEAD TO A BRIEF ROUND OF
EXCESSIVE HEAT FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. EVEN THOUGH DAILY MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE THAT
ANOMALOUSLY HIGH, THE MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX IN SOME OF THESE AREAS IS FORECAST TO
EXCEED 105 DEGREES F.



IN THE NORTHERN STREAM, A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE ALONG THE
NORTHEAST, WITH RAINFALL TOTALS OF MORE THAN ONE INCH POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS.
ALSO, ANTECEDENT RAINFALL MAY PROLONG OR EXACERBATE AREAS OF FLOODING,
INCLUDING PARTS OF NORTHERN ILLINOIS, SOUTHERN WISCONSIN, AND CENTRAL
MINNESOTA.



THE OVERALL UPPER-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY BY THE END OF THE
WEEK, DRAMATICALLY INCREASING THE AMPLITUDE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IN THE
WEST, IN CONJUNCTION WITH A DEEP TROUGH IN THE EAST. THIS PATTERN CHANGE
FAVORS MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR A LARGE SWATH OF THE COUNTRY FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST, WITH DAILY MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES AT
LEAST 12 DEGREES F ABOVE NORMAL. MANY LOCATIONS MAY SEE DAILY HIGHS OVER 100
DEGREES F. IN THE SOUTHWEST, DAILY HIGH HEAT INDICES ARE EXPECTED TO EXCEED
115 DEGREES F. EVEN THOUGH IT IS NOT UNUSUAL FOR THESE AREAS TO BE HOT THIS
TIME OF YEAR, THE FORECAST HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE CONSIDERED HIGH ENOUGH TO
WARRANT A HAZARD AREA.



THE AMPLIFICATION OF THIS RIDGE ALSO FAVORS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF MONSOONAL
PRECIPITATION. ANY DRY THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM IN NEW MEXICO, COLORADO, UTAH,
OR ARIZONA HAS THE POTENTIAL TO ENHANCE WILDFIRE RISK DUE TO ANTECEDENT DRY
SOILS AND VERY HOT TEMPERATURES.



AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DIGS DOWN INTO THE OHIO VALLEY, SOUTHERLY FLOW FROM
THE MID-LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE DOWN TO THE SURFACE IS EXPECTED TO BRING VERY
MOIST AIR INTO THE ENTIRE EAST COAST. THIS PATTERN MAY SUPPORT HEAVY RAIN AND
POSSIBLE FLOODING FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. CURRENTLY, THE
AREA WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE OF RECEIVING HEAVY RAIN IS IN EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA, WITH RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1-2 INCHES POSSIBLE.



IN ALASKA, AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BRING MUCH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE EASTERN PART OF THE STATE. DAILY MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE 15-25 DEGREES F ABOVE NORMAL, WITH SOME AREAS
POSSIBLY EXPERIENCING TEMPERATURES OF 90 DEGREES F.

FOR TUESDAY JULY 02 - MONDAY JULY 08: THE MJO IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE
ACTIVE AND IN A FAVORABLE PHASE FOR TROPICAL ATLANTIC ACTIVITY FOR THIS
FORECAST PERIOD. SOME NUMERICAL MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE PREDICTING A TROPICAL
SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND IMPACTING THE GULF COAST.
THEREFORE, PEOPLE WITH INTERESTS IN THIS PART OF THE COUNTRY SHOULD KEEP
UPDATED WITH THE MOST CURRENT INFORMATION COMING OUT OF THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AND LOCAL NWS OFFICES.



THE MOST RECENT U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS 46.73% OF THE CONUS IN NO DRYNESS OR
DROUGHT. WHILE THIS IS DOWN SLIGHTLY FROM THE PREVIOUS WEEK, IT IS STILL UP
FROM MOST OF 2012.

FORECASTER: KENNETH PELMAN
Quoting StormTrackerScott:
MJO is coming into the Caribbean so we will have to watch for the potential of a system in the Caribbean or Gulf next week. Either way a monsoon type trough is going to set up across the Gulf and FL later this weekend so it is possible things could get interesting.




hmm...maybe the CMC right afterall
Good morning. The 12z ATCF update on Cosme will be out shortly. It will likely go up to at least 60kts but the question is whether it will go to hurricane status or not. These new estimates suggest it may be there.

25/1200 UTC 17.5N 110.2W T4.0/4.0 COSME -- East Pacific
Boy, we've had some rain.

Some area's about 70 miles south of Sydney are closing in on 250mm(9.8in) for just 24hrs, DANG!!!!!!

12z Best Track up to 60kts.

EP, 03, 2013062512, , BEST, 0, 173N, 1102W, 60, 990, TS
Fires still burning in Arizona and New Mexico..


USA6 Subset - Aqua 1km True Color

Good Morning. Here is the 00Z, shorter term, CMC run showing a low over the Yucatan which may be the longer term potential gulf storm that some folks are discussing.

Link

The models, and without significant consensus, this far out deserve our attention for that area but we will have to see where the models are as we get into next week.

What I find more interesting in terms of this model is the general location of the A-B high. It's relative position will certainly vary on a storm to storm basis and potential trofs in the August/September time frame will erode it at times, perhaps allowing for a few fish storms, but the general location at the moment would provide a favorable steering pattern for CV storms into the Caribbean. We could see a very active classic long-track Cape Verde season this year with 3-4 storms forming into depressions, or higher, as they get close to the Lesser Antilles.

In terms of the current conditions, the E-Pac is the basin to watch for the time being.
Quoting Neapolitan:
FYI, the Times is an ultra-conservative tabloid with a strong denialist bent (as you can see from the article to which you linked) and is thus best avoided in any serious discussion about climate change--and, well, pretty much anything else, too...


You demonstrate a dangerously closed mind with the above statement. But I've found you doing that before many times.
Quoting biff4ugo:
When congress starts talking about fossil fuel prices, untethered to costs or availability, and it's effects on both the US economy in addition to health and the global environment, THAT will be a debate worth listening to.
Such a discussion would mean Republicans and Democrats are both in the conversation, upping the possibility of meaningful action.
(I'm not talking about the Climate Change is Real preaching.) I AM talking about the effects of gas prices on businesses and job creation that no politician has dared to mention.

What is there to talk about regarding prices?
Early morning read..
Great info..

NWS ITCZ webpage...a primer..Click Here
Looks like stormy conditions setting up for the plain states and the Northeast today. It could be nasty.

Very surprised Cosme hasn't been declared a hurricane yet.



NASA Image of the Day


Supermoon in Washington





A supermoon rises behind the Washington Monument, Sunday, June 23, 2013, in Washington. This year the supermoon is up to 13.5 percent larger and 30 percent brighter than a typical full moon is. This is a result of the Moon reaching its perigee - the closest that it gets to the Earth during the course of its orbit. During perigee on June 23, the moon was about 221,824 miles away, as compared to the 252,581 miles away that it is at its furthest distance from the Earth (apogee).

Image Credit: NASA/Bill Ingalls
Hey folks...sorry to butt-in, but...

I need your help to test a link.

It's the Palm Beach County 'Evacuation Tool'. The link won't work for me or anyone else I've talked to, but I need to make sure.

I'm in the middle of writing back our Emergency Manager over the PBC DART app vs the PDF file evacuation zones when I noticed the above link (which he enclosed in the email, and has also been in the Hurricane Protocol guide from the beginning) didn't work properly. It takes me to the page, the little fill-in box shows up for about a half second, then disappears.

It would be great if a few of you could try the link and see if it works. You can click on the link above or here it is written out: http://maps.co.palm-beach.fl.us/gis/sams.aspx

TIA,
Mike
803. VR46L
Good Morning Folks!


Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Very surprised Cosme hasn't been declared a hurricane yet.



The stats show he is just under Hurricane Status

Source Tropical Atlantic

Best Track Position and Intensity as of:
Tuesday, Jun. 25, 2013 12:00 Z

Location at the time:
386 statue miles (621 km) to the S (183) from Cabo San Lucas, Baja California Sur, Mxico.

Wind (1 min. avg.):
60 knots (~69 mph | 31 m/s | 111 km/h)

Pressure:
990 mb (29.24 inHg | 990 hPa)

Coordinates:
17.3N 110.2W
National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office
Chicago, IL

Swath of Strong Winds and Damage Monday Afternoon & Evening
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Very surprised Cosme hasn't been declared a hurricane yet.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Very surprised Cosme hasn't been declared a hurricane yet.

It will definitely be one later today.
Wow, some floods there in Alberta, Canada.

I do feel bad for the folks involved but one does need to point out that like the environmental damage found in south Louisiana it can be argued that Alberta is getting rich by contributing heavily to the atmosphere's warming by adding millions of tons of tar sands' greenhouse gases to it every year. The warmer atmosphere can hold more water.

The atmosphere just burped back a little to them.
Quoting Neapolitan:
I suppose we'll see, but my gut instincts tell me the new initiative will be a watered-down list of half-measures and non-measures containing gifts to the fossil fuel industry, though presented as something bold and necessary. There'll be talk of needing to meet the energy demands of the 21st century, and how that means we can't abandon fossil fuels even as we move to improve clean and sustainable technologies. He'll tell us that "clean coal" is the answer; that fracking is safe and should be implemented even more widely; that billions more in tax dollars will be given to ExxonMobil and friends so these "proven leaders" in the field of energy can do more R&D; that "fear-mongering" environmentalists are wrong about the dangers of tar sands; and so on. Bottom line: any energy initiative from this center-right President can be guaranteed to have been cobbled together by people friendly to Big Energy and politically-fearful of upsetting others in Washington beholden to fossil fuel interests. IOW, don't expect much real or substantial.

I hope I'm wrong.


yes, and we want all of our Middle-eastern friends to make all the money off of Americans, then they can destroy us, your playing right into their hands!
Quoting mikatnight:
Hey folks...sorry to butt-in, but...

I need your help to test a link.

It's the Palm Beach County 'Evacuation Tool'. The link won't work for me or anyone else I've talked to, but I need to make sure.

I'm in the middle of writing back our Emergency Manager over the PBC DART app vs the PDF file evacuation zones when I noticed the above link (which he enclosed in the email, and has also been in the Hurricane Protocol guide from the beginning) didn't work properly. It takes me to the page, the little fill-in box shows up for about a half second, then disappears.

It would be great if a few of you could try the link and see if it works. You can click on the link above or here it is written out: http://maps.co.palm-beach.fl.us/gis/sams.aspx

TIA,
Mike


Mornin' mikatnight..
Link to PBC Evac Tool started to load correctly and then dumped and went blank..
I'd say it is a webpage design prob..
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Very surprised Cosme hasn't been declared a hurricane yet.



It will be shortly, TA.
Quoting pcola57:


Mornin' mikatnight..
Link to PBC Evac Tool started to load correctly and then went blank..
I'd say it is a webpage design prob..


Thanks PC. It's been that way for months. When I originally tried it, I thought it was just because the season hadn't started yet. I can't believe no one else has brought this to their attention. Ok, time to finish my letter and get it sent. Almost a month into the season and no one in the county can find their EZ without a smartphone! For crying out loud...
This rant is relavant because it references gas, and thus carbon, and climate related issues. I'll admit it is tangential. sorry. (edit)

Gas price increases are a bigger drain on businesses, employees, and export prices than government taxes. If you taxed citizens at the rate of gas prices, there would be a revolution next week. How many jobs could businesses add if they were paying 2$ a gallon to haul their goods instead of $3.50? How much cheaper would food be, if the fuel farmers needed to plant, harvest, and haul their produce to markets was a dollar and a half less per gallon? How much more food and goods could consumers buy if they didn't have the gas pumps sucking dollars out of their wallets so fast?
Gas prices are not based on the cost to produce and distribute it. Those costs don't change with the volatility indicated at the corner store, and stores charge different prices in the same municipalities from the same companies, it isn't due to tax differences or even the price for a barrel of oil on the stock market. Barrel prices go down and gas goes up all the time. Who is actually controlling this break on our economy and how can we get their foot off the pedal?
Doesn't that sound like a conversation and information worth having?
Quoting MechEngMet:


You demonstrate a dangerously closed mind with the above statement.��� But I've found you doing that before many times.
I have evidence to back up all my statements--something I've never found you doing before at any time. But then again, it's easy to come into a public forum and toss out baseless insults, isn't it?

Now, it's common knowledge--that is, for those who actually have knowledge--that the Times is a conservative tabloid owned and funded by Sun Myung Moon's Unification Church. Research that. Afterwards, get back to me with what you've learned. Then we can have this discussion...
Quoting Neapolitan:
One would hope he would; there hasn't been such a do-nothing, block-POTUS-at-any-cost Congress in decades, if ever, so if anything meaningful is to be done, an end-run is probably the only way. But given the President's record on matters such as climate change, I wouldn't count on it.
It's not his job to end run Congress that's all he knows how to do anything!
Quoting trunkmonkey:


yes, and we want all of our Middle-eastern friends to make all the money off of Americans, then they can destroy us, your playing right into their hands!
Yep, trunk, you're right. Because I don't want civilization destroyed for the benefit of Big Energy CEOs, it stands to reason that I clearly want us to be subjugated to Saudi oil states. You figured me out! Impeccable, rock-solid logic, my friend!
Quoting Neapolitan:
I have evidence to back up all my statements--something I've never found you doing before at any time. But then again, it's easy to come into a public forum and toss out baseless insults, isn't it?

Now, it's common knowledge--that is, for those who actually have knowledge--that the Times is a conservative tabloid owned and funded by Sun Myung Moon's Unification Church. Research that. Afterwards, get back to me with what you've learned. Then we can have this discussion...



That does absolutely nothing to discount my original observation that you continue to demonstrate a dangerously closed mind.

When (if ever) will you learn that correlation is not causation?
Quoting MechEngMet:



That does absolutely nothing to discount my original observation that you continue to demonstrate a dangerously closed mind.

When (if ever) will you learn that correlation is not causation?


Good Morning MECH..
New blog..
Post # 809 :)
Quoting LemieT:


That's great to hear you enjoyed yourself in. We have quite a few turtles that come ashore on the south and west coasts to nest. An amazing experience that I had was when Tomas was approaching, we were at the beach and a nest had hatched that same evening. The poor little things were disoriented, heading inland, so a few of us helped them back towards the water. Apparently the lights from the buildings were drawing them, as the moon was covered by cloud.


You're right, it is an amazing experience. I do turtle patrols for Eglin AFB and have had the experience of releasing baby turtles into the wild, pretty amazing!
Quoting Jedkins01:
.
Have new blog here's the comment #809.
That list of top 10 costliest Canadian weather disasters looks wrong or outdated. The Ice Storm of Jan 1998 is generally regarded as Canada's costliest weather related disaster at about $4.5B in damage. Next comes MB/SK floods of 2011 that was around $1B and Slave Lake AB wildflire of 2011 at $700M. Also up there are 1991 and 1996 Calgary hailstorms. The Calgary flooding this year will likely be a top 2 disaster from a cost standpoint.

Wildfires of 1989, drought of 1977 and extreme temps of 1992 (?) look very odd to be in that list, let alone the top 3.