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Busy Week of Severe Weather Ahead for Nation’s Midsection

By: Bob Henson 4:08 PM GMT on April 25, 2016

In classic late-April fashion, the ingredients are coming into play for severe thunderstorms to prowl the central United States across several days over the coming week. The whole gamut of severe threats is likely to materialize before the week is out, from tornadoes to enormous hail, strong downburst winds, and torrential downpours. Residents of Texas and Louisiana hard-hit by flooding in recent weeks face another stretch with the potential for very heavy rain that would add to record amounts observed in the past 12 months. The storminess kicked off on Sunday with dozens of large-hail reports and at least 10 preliminary tornado reports from southern Minnesota to northern Kansas. Two storm chasers were injured, according to the Weather Channel.


Figure 1. Day 2 convective outlook issued early Monday, April 25, 2016, for Tuesday, April 26. The yellow and red colors indicate progressively higher risk for severe weather, with the red (moderate) the second-highest category.


The biggest immediate threat for tornadoes appears to be on Tuesday, when a strong upper-level storm will encounter very rich low-level moisture from Nebraska to Texas. In its early-Monday outlook for Day 2 (Tuesday), NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center placed a strip from southern Nebraska to central Oklahoma in a moderate risk of severe weather, the second highest of five risk categories. Tornadic supercells may cluster along a warm front expected to lie near the KS-NE border, and others may pop further south along a strong dryline that will advance through Kansas and Oklahoma through the afternoon and evening. A second pulse of energy rotating around the upper low will reach southern OK and north TX by late evening, possibly triggering a batch of supercells that could rage well after dark.


Figure 2. Jet-stream flow at the 250-mb level (about 34,000 feet) projected by the 06Z Monday run of the GFS model for 00Z Wednesday (7 pm CDT Tuesday). Winds at this level exceeding 90 knots (105 mph) will be nosing into southwest Oklahoma. Upward motion is enhanced where the contours separate (diffluence) and toward the front left area of highest jet-stream winds. Image credit: Levi Cowan, www.tropicaltidbits.com.


Figure 3. WunderMap depiction of CAPE (a measure of atmospheric instability) projected by the 06Z Monday run of the GFS model for 18Z (1 pm CDT) Tuesday. Just ahead of a dry line across central Kansas and Oklahoma, CAPE values of 3500-4500 J/kg (red and purple) are indicated, denoting extreme instability.

Plenty of atmospheric juice for big hail-makers
Summerlike dewpoints of 70-73°F (21-23°C) were streaming onto the Texas coast on Monday morning. This very humid low-level air mass has plenty of time to be pulled north into the moderate-risk area by Tuesday afternoon. With cold upper-level air overspreading the sultry surface air, lifted indices may get as low as -10 to -12; this would be close to the most extreme levels of instability seen in springtime tornado outbreaks across the Southern and Central Plains. The vertical wind shear (change in wind direction and/or speed with height) will also be more than adequate for tornadic storms, if not exceptionally strong. Wind speeds at 850 mb and 700 mb (about one to two miles aloft) will generally be in the 45 to 55 mph range, whereas they can sometimes top 60 mph in major tornado outbreaks. A strong “cap” (warm layer aloft) at these heights may keep storms from developing along the dry line till late afternoon or early evening. The cap will be weakest and the wind shear strongest near the warm front in northern Kansas and southern Nebraska, which is where I would expect the greatest tornado risk to evolve.


Figure 4. The National Weather Service office in Oklahoma City was warning residents Monday morning of the severe risk on Tuesday.


Given the adequate wind shear and extreme instability, there are likely to be extremely powerful updrafts in Tuesday’s storms that could produce giant hail, the size of baseballs or larger. Figure 4 shows the top-end hail risk expected in the Oklahoma City area. Large hail could extend into north Texas, where a massive hailstorm on March 16 damaged 50,000 cars and 25,000 homes, inflicting more than half a billion dollars in damage. As of April 11, the Dallas-Fort Worth NWS office had received 30 reports of severe hail for the year thus far, already the highest January-to-April total for any year in the last decade (see embedded tweet at bottom).

Looking ahead: more storms on the horizon
Tuesday’s severe weather will greatly affect the state of the atmosphere on Wednesday. As the upper-level storm and dry line push east, conditions should be generally favorable for more severe weather from eastern Missouri to east Texas, where SPC’s Day 3 outlook places a slight risk. The configuration of upper- and lower-winds suggests that the overall tornado risk may be somewhat less on Wednesday than on Tuesday.

Upper-level troughiness in the western U.S. will “reload” by late this week, as another potent upper low enters the Southwest. The Southern Plains will again be targeted for big storms around Friday, and severe weather may continue across parts of the area into the weekend, although it’s too soon to know exactly how the scenario will play out. It does appear that upper-level winds will become more meridional (flowing from south to north) toward the weekend, which would enhance the potential for storms “training” along boundaries and dumping excessive amounts of rain. NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center expects that rainfall amounts for the week starting Monday could hit 3-5” near Omaha, with a larger area of 3-7” rain projected for east Texas, southeast Oklahoma, northwest Louisiana, and much of Arkansas. Unfortunately, this coincides with some areas slammed by all-time record rainfall in March, including Little Rock, AR, and Shreveport, LA.

We’ll be back on Tuesday with an update on the severe weather threat. We are planning a liveblog as well, pending resolution of some technical difficulties that arose on Monday.

Bob Henson


Figure 5. 7-day precipitation outlook for the period from 12Z (7:00 am CDT) Monday, April 25, 2016, through 12Z May 2. Image credit: NOAA/NWS Weather Prediction Center.



Severe Weather

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Their BACK....
Temporary?
   Thanks for the new Post Mr. Henson....
Hello, hello
Are we back on?
So, Is this a third instance?
Back on track. Thanks Mr. Henson. :)
It Is a mad house
Thanks for your patience, everyone! This is the instance we'll be using between now and tomorrow AM, when our next post (singular :-) will go live.
Good Deal....
Lol whats going on here? My comment is missing.Some weird software issues for sure.
Should be OK now.... they closed the 2nd instance of this blog....
Hello everyone... Nice day today in Anchorage.
I'm having issues with other sites including my Photobucket.


As mentioned, the moderate risk area is now extended to the Red River (Texas Boarder). The SPC extended the moderate risk area further south this afternoon.

I can't post the image due to tech difficulties.
Good to go, thanks Mr. Henson.
.....wormhole..whoa'
Thanks Mr. Henson!
Natl Hurricane Ctr
%u200F@NWSNHC

WMO retires the names Erika & Joaquin in Altantic & Patricia in Eastern Pacific. They are replaced with Elsa, Julian & Pamela @NHCDirector

Are our Bonnie chances decreasing? Haven't heard anyone talking about it.
Just some updates on the
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1245 PM CDT MON APR 25 2016
Click for today's complete 1230 Day 1 Convective Outlook

I see the risk areas already posted at 14. Here's the Pro Babble probabilistic.


Also...

The a.m. graph from Norman as shown in this blog changed this afternoon. The moderate risk area stretches much further south the way it had been outlined for the past few days. Glad. I was afraid people in central and southern OK might let their guard down.
How early is too early for word that tornadoes may come?

Excerpt:

After mastering physics, meteorologists must now master psychology.
*
Even though we were near average for 2015 we still managed to get two storms retired.After 15 years we finally have another T.S to add to the list.
*
Blues growing.
*

Always hot on the Weekend....made 70F here today..
Quoting 18. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Natl Hurricane Ctr
‏@NWSNHC

WMO retires the names Erika & Joaquin in Altantic & Patricia in Eastern Pacific. They are replaced with Elsa, Julian & Pamela @NHCDirector



That makes Erika the 2nd ever Atlantic tropical storm to be retired.
Quoting 18. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Natl Hurricane Ctr
‏@NWSNHC

WMO retires the names Erika & Joaquin in Altantic & Patricia in Eastern Pacific. They are replaced with Elsa, Julian & Pamela @NHCDirector



they retir a rain storm? wanst Erika a open wave most of its life?
There'S problems again....
?
So everything is all right with the blogs? Oh and I'm not surprised at the replacement for Erika especially considering the first name is Ana and the name before Pamela is Olaf. Also not surprised that Joaquin and Patricia are retired too.
Ugh. Soooo not looking forward to this. Moved out of the direct DFW metro area to a much more rural and westerly location. We have had 4 tornado warnings in the last month. They were all south of us, and we only received a small assault of hail. Unfortunately, working a night time cleaning job, puts me in the hot zone during peak nastiness. I will keep up with weather developments, and if it looks really bad, I'll be calling in. I don't earn enough at this gig to risk my life.

Y'all stay safe and aware!!
Quoting 18. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Natl Hurricane Ctr
%u200F@NWSNHC

WMO retires the names Erika & Joaquin in Altantic & Patricia in Eastern Pacific. They are replaced with Elsa, Julian & Pamela @NHCDirector


A Very Fitting decision on the part of the WMO- given the tremendous impacts and Loss of life caused by both Storms.
Erika although officially a strong Tropical storm -was certainly deserving of being retired given how deadly its impact was in the Commonwealth of Dominica. May All of the souls lost during the passage of this epic storm in the Nature Island of the Caribbean- Rest in the Peace of Jesus Christ!
-Storms of Greater & Lesser Intensities than Erika may come but we take consolation in knowing that the infamous name Erika will never again be used for any named Tropical System.

Blessings to All!
Houston to Wunderblog - we are still having technical problems at times accessing the site...

Quoting 19. HurricaneFan:


Are our Bonnie chances decreasing? Haven't heard anyone talking about it.
Yes sir. Bonnie until June.
I still think a subtropical or tropical system could pop up southwest of the Azores out of the weather currently in the central Atlantic, just did my latest blog update on this situation.
Quoting 38. Andrebrooks:

Yes sir. Bonnie until June.


Since you have your crystal ball, can you give me the next powerball numbers?

How do you know we won't get Bonnie in May or July?
College of DuPage Meteorology
Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings
Note: This page will reload every 2 minutes. Warnings are listed with the most recent first.
Click on the station ID to bring up list of recent severe weather statements.
SVR T-STORM WARNING NORTHERN INDIANA - KIWX 1028 PM EDT MON APR 25 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING DENVER CO - KBOU 826 PM MDT MON APR 25 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL - KLOT 916 PM CDT MON APR 25 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING CHEYENNE WY - KCYS 815 PM MDT MON APR 25 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING GRAND RAPIDS MI - KGRR 1015 PM EDT MON APR 25 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING NORTHERN INDIANA - KIWX 1008 PM EDT MON APR 25 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING GRAND RAPIDS MI - KGRR 954 PM EDT MON APR 25 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX - KEWX 853 PM CDT MON APR 25 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING CHEYENNE WY - KCYS 735 PM MDT MON APR 25 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING GRAND RAPIDS MI - KGRR 929 PM EDT MON APR 25 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING GRAND RAPIDS MI - KGRR 920 PM EDT MON APR 25 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING NORTHERN INDIANA - KIWX 911 PM EDT MON APR 25 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING GRAND RAPIDS MI - KGRR 847 PM EDT MON APR 25 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING GRAND RAPIDS MI - KGRR 830 PM EDT MON APR 25 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL - KLOT 712 PM CDT MON APR 25 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX - KEWX 706 PM CDT MON APR 25 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL - KLOT 659 PM CDT MON APR 25 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING GRAND RAPIDS MI - KGRR 745 PM EDT MON APR 25 2016
42. IDTH
Is the blog fixed?


Severe storms are expected to form Tuesday afternoon and continue through the evening and into the night. The strongest storms may produce hail larger than baseballs, damaging winds, and tornadoes. There is still some uncertainty regarding how many storms will form initially, but higher confidence in storms becoming widespread east of Interstate-35. In any case, it will be very important to pay close attention to the weather on Tuesday.


This storm timing graphic will likely change as new information becomes available. All available data indicate the storms should initiate after 3 PM but we cannot completely rule out an earlier development time. Check back often for updates!


Very large hail will be the dominant threat with the storms on Tuesday, but tornadoes will be possible as well.
The greatest risk for tornadoes will be mainly east of Cherokee, El Reno, Lawton, and Wichita Falls.
The tornado risk is expected to increase substantially toward and after 6 PM as storms shift east of the I-35 corridor. Check back for updates as the threat areas will likely change between now and Tuesday afternoon.
Quoting 28. PedleyCA:


Always hot on the Weekend....made 70F here today..



ULL over Nevada/Utah has a short wave/vort max coming south into Soo Cal triggering a batch of showers. Just enough the last 10 minutes to wet the street. Looked like it came down from you Ped.

Patrap, finally the pattern switch that's spares NO and southern Louisiana. You had a pretty wild Winter and early Spring. Locked in for the next three weeks with a pattern that's set up to do bad things. Headed into territory, for rainfall in the areas hardest hit the last four months, that we've never seen before. Really concerned about the next 60 days for Texas, Oklahoma, Arkansas, and Louisiana. This is insane rain we've seen this year, like last; and the bumpy ride's only begun this year.
And a big shout out to Kansas! They always get forgotten. Tulsa's been a hot zone last two years. Experts are expecting some real extreme's tomorrow. No people in America more prepared than the people of Oklahoma and Kansas.
Quoting 46. HurricaneHunterJoe:



ULL over Nevada/Utah has a short wave/vort max coming south into Soo Cal triggering a batch of showers. Just enough the last 10 minutes to wet the street. Looked like it came down from you Ped.


Saw that coming on the News and didn't think it would slide off the mountains and give us any. Then
I heard it on the skylights and it came down for a few minutes and Indian Hills PWS reported .16 and
KRAL reported .08......SWEET
NCHurricanes2009 has done an outstanding personal blog on the central Atlantic low and it's possibilities for development. Looks like we could have a subtropical storm that goes South of the Azores and then heads West and South. Cue WKC.
India -

Deadly summers claiming more lives each year


Last year alone, heat wave killed at least 2,500 people — a 50 per cent increase compared to 2014.

Deaths due to extreme summer temperatures have seen a sharp upturn in recent years. Last year alone, heat wave killed at least 2,500 people — a 50 per cent increase compared to 2014. This year seems no different, with the India Meteorological Department predicting an average increase of 1 degree Celsius during summer.

We are still 20-30 days away from the peak summer phase and already over 160 have died, with the worst-hit being Andhra Pradesh, Telangana and Odisha. There are ominous signs of a torrid summer ahead of us — some States have reported an increase in temperature of about 4-5 degrees Celsius for April.


Link
Extreme Weather Kills 13, Destroys Hundreds of Pagodas

RANGOON — Gale-force winds and hailstorms have killed more than 10 people and destroyed homes, religious buildings and livestock in northern Burma since Friday.

The affected areas were in Mandalay, Sagaing and Magwe divisions, as well as Shan and Arakan states, claiming the lives of 13 people and injuring dozens. Storms damaged more than 15,000 homes and killed hundreds of cattle, local media reported on Monday.

According to a report on Saturday from the office of Burma’s military commander-in-chief, a 30-minute-long gale-force wind toppled more than 800 pagodas in the Kakku Pagoda compound about 30 miles outside of Taunggyi, the capital of Shan State. The pagoda complex boasts a cluster of more than 2,400 religious structures, believed to be many centuries old.


Link
Flora & fauna perish in Kumaon forest fires

Pithoragarh, April 25
Forest animals and reptiles are dying in the Kumaon region following forest fires and the Forest Department is helpless in extinguishing the fires due to shortage of workers and inadequate preparations as the fire season started a month before expected this year.

According to sources from Bageshwar, all six ranges of forest division in the district are under fires which is causing loss worth crores of rupees to forest assets.

Forest officials confirmed that animals were running towards the human settlement due to these fires which has engulfed all six ranges of Kapkot, Kanda, Rima, Banlekh, Garur and Kausani. “Though we have prepared the plan, due to lack of workers, we could not do so as all our employees are above 55 years of age and cannot be deputed in interior ranges,” said MB Singh, DFO, Bageshwar.


Link
Quoting 37. DeepSeaRising:

Okay gang here's a thought...... We've quoted NativSun here more than anyone over the last month. Please, for the love of God, can't we all just utterly ignore him and not comment when he rehashes the same old rubbish he spews over and over again. Here's the sad truth; he doesn't care about AGW or climate, he cares only for the attention he craves so. So lets stop giving it to him.


The sad truth is ignoring the idiots and trolls won't make them go away. It just makes it seem like they did. Anyone else stopping by will see their garbage even if you or I can't (unless a mod happens to catch it and nukes it from orbit). Such posts reflect negatively on the site overall. Worse, it may encourage others of their ilk to post similar baseless trash.

I don't blame you for wanting to pretend they don't exist though. ;)

Quoting 55. Xyrus2000:



The sad truth is ignoring the idiots and trolls won't make them go away. It just makes it seem like they did. Anyone else stopping by will see their garbage even if you or I can't (unless a mod happens to catch it and nukes it from orbit). Such posts reflect negatively on the site overall. Worse, it may encourage others of their ilk to post similar baseless trash.

I don't blame you for wanting to pretend they don't exist though. ;)




Very much so in all that you've said. Just wish the mods could ban a clown like that who is an antagonist and drives the blog though ridiculous anti-intellectualism. The kind that Trump and Cruz rely on. Don't hate the science, hate the truth. But Trump and Cruz can't help themselves. I hope truth can carry the day.
Quoting 30. Tazmanian:



they retir a rain storm? wanst Erika a open wave most of its life?

Erika was the deadliest storm to hit Dominica since Hurricane David in 1979. It set the island back 20 years.
Ped, better keep that sandbag handy.
Well, that X with 0.2" turned into 1.40" for us today east of Naples, FL.
Go figure.
I've been following this story for awhile now and it's starting to heat up. (pun intended) The bad thing is that climate change regarding temps and sea level rise, may take Turkey Point Nuclear Power Plant with it. Not because it will flood out, but because the cooling canals can't handle the extra heat and rising tides may be pushing salt water into the fresh water aquifer. In addition to high levels of radiation found in biscayne bay. (which wasn't addressed in this particular article I will link at the end)

At the very least a very expensive bill for FPL (and thus for it's customers) is coming if FPL wants to continue to operate Turkey Point -which not only do they - they want to ADD TWO MORE REACTORS to it.

Now, I am all for nuclear power, assuming we use it as safe as possible. However, seems a little foolish, if not scary, to plan to expand when you can't even keep up with what you got.

http://www.miamiherald.com/news/local/environment /article73855992.html

Link
Quoting 50. PedleyCA:

Saw that coming on the News and didn't think it would slide off the mountains and give us any. Then
I heard it on the skylights and it came down for a few minutes and Indian Hills PWS reported .16 and
KRAL reported .08......SWEET



Yeah, today here was cold, windy, and we're getting frosty by morning. Kiddos wanted the woodstove lit, and I was ok with that. 62*F in the house an hour after sunset, not gonna get any warmer.
Quoting 51. DeepSeaRising:

NCHurricanes2009 has done an outstanding personal blog on the central Atlantic low and it's possibilities for development. Looks like we could have a subtropical storm that goes South of the Azores and then heads West and South. Cue WKC.


Very funny

At the moment I'm split in the middle with this idea of sub tropical storm out in Atlantic

I'd say wait and see
Quoting 55. Xyrus2000:
The sad truth is ignoring the idiots and trolls won't make them go away. It just makes it seem like they did. Anyone else stopping by will see their garbage even if you or I can't (unless a mod happens to catch it and nukes it from orbit). Such posts reflect negatively on the site overall. Worse, it may encourage others of their ilk to post similar baseless trash.

I don't blame you for wanting to pretend they don't exist though. ;)
Most of your opinion is speculation. The part about quoting them that NativeSun brings up, though, is more factual. Also, trying to do a close reading and line by line rebuttal of what is, after all, baseless trash seems ... odd. Then there is the piling on that occurs. After one person gives a rebuttal, a few more often follow. If a troll is to be rebutted, isn't one enough? Is the flagging mechanism broken?

Also, can't the rebuttals be a little shorter? Aren't there resources like Cook's SkepticalScience that collects rebuttals of common denialist themes? Do people bother to check there before submitting another essay to the comment section?
Quoting 61. nonblanche:



Yeah, today here was cold, windy, and we're getting frosty by morning. Kiddos wanted the woodstove lit, and I was ok with that. 62*F in the house an hour after sunset, not gonna get any warmer.


Snowing in the mountains here (Anchorage area), coming down as mist... Should be mid 30's in the morning. It's hit and miss with the frost in the morning, usually it's gone by the time I wake up as the sun has already been out for a couple of hours. (and I get up early too) In fact, it's only dusk out now at 10pm.
Quoting 62. wunderkidcayman:



Very funny

At the moment I'm split in the middle with this idea of sub tropical storm out in Atlantic

I'd say wait and see


We do miss your quips here. Know you have a lot on your plate. Always enjoy your opines. I'm expecting the unexpected. Know you'll go through another major. I know you will be on top of it like no one else.
Quoting 63. bappit:

Most of your opinion is speculation. The part about quoting them that NativeSun brings up, though, is more factual. Also, trying to do a close reading and line by line rebuttal of what is, after all, baseless trash seems ... odd. Then there is the piling on that occurs. After one person gives a rebuttal, a few more often follow. If a troll is to be rebutted, isn't one enough? Is the flagging mechanism broken?

Also, can't the rebuttals be a little shorter? Aren't there resources like Cook's SkepticalScience that collects rebuttals of common denialist themes? Do people bother to check there before submitting another essay to the comment section?


Absolutely brutal! But such is keeping it 100% often is. While this comment convicts me in many ways, it makes me want to learn morn and be more pithy and articulate. Spread the truth. Great commission, nothing more important.
67. vis0

Quoting 37. DeepSeaRising:

Okay gang here's a thought...... We've quoted NativSun here more than anyone over the last month. Please, for the love of God, can't we all just utterly ignore him and not comment when he rehashes the same old rubbish he spews over and over again. Here's the sad truth; he doesn't care about AGW or climate, he cares only for the attention he craves so. So lets stop giving it to him. Tomorrow's looking bad. Hail alone is going to be nuts. I'm praying we don't add fifty tornadoes with a handful being EF3 and stronger and long trackers, but it's looking more and more like this will be a real outbreak with billion dollar potential. Stay safe all in harms way!
So that means if 100 bloggers ignore NativeSun in where 5 of those  would have post in reply how NatriveSun has posted things that are NOT factual and lets say during the 2 days in which that blog is the latest Dr. Masters blogbyte 5 new bloggers 2 of them youngsters read NativeSun's comment.
Of those 5, 4 are easily convinced NativeSun is correct or that NativeSun has a point.  
We should allow those 4 to not just to believe that comment but go around and tell others what they read as factual or at worst say i read it on Dr. Masters blog and allow those incorrect statements to mold the opinion of others throughout the public?  

wow this is the worst for of giving up, all one has to do it scroll (how much energy does that take...THERE you just used much more to think out that question) while those that care to maintain the facts out in front in full sight post some rebuttal a few words, links that is all...i think i made an error in reading that Humans did things like invent the wheel, create laws to protect all people and go to the moon that cannot be true humans cannot even use  the energy that even a flea would go pfft! to.

Even amoebas  send out communication signals that pass some form of knowledge (at their level) here supposedly the brightest complex animal on this planet prefer

Would not be surprised to see the Storm Prediction Center enter a 60% hatched hail area across a portion of the Moderate risk in future updates. You're really not going to see a better thermodynamic environment. There have already been several billion-dollar disasters because of hail damage this year.

As far as the tornado potential, it will be there tomorrow. But as I said last night, concerns about veer-back-veer wind profiles with a meridional 500mb jet will probably lead to a messy storm mode. Storm Relative Helicity is also lower than what you typically see in significant events. This is why the SPC "only" has a 10% risk area out. Maybe 2 or 3 strong tornadoes in central Kansas around 22z? A far cry from the potential that was being indicated in modeling up to Friday.
69. vis0

Quoting 38. Andrebrooks:

Yes sir. Bonnie until June.
Bonnie has a 76% from week 2 to week 3 of May.(sciscalaG)
or was it...
that i have a see and say from the 1960s and changed the labels added a few stickers and when i pulled the string a few minutes ago it pointed to "B" and the picture of a maid.
 i take to mean B storm during "May". 

Next the squeaky squeegee board, an old domino table that has 1eg too short.
Quoting 67. vis0:


So that means if 100 bloggers ignore NativeSun in where 5 of those  would have post in reply how NatriveSun has posted things that are NOT factual and lets say during the 2 days in which that blog is the latest Dr. Masters blogbyte 5 new bloggers 2 of them youngsters read NativeSun's comment.
Of those 5, 4 are easily convinced NativeSun is correct or that NativeSun has a point.  
We should allow those 4 to not just to believe that comment but go around and tell others what they read as factual or at worst say i read it on Dr. Masters blog and allow those incorrect statements to mold the opinion of others throughout the public?  

wow this is the worst for of giving up, all one has to do it scroll (how much energy does that take...THERE you just used much more to think out that question) while those that care to maintain the facts out in front in full sight post some rebuttal a few words, links that is all...i think i made an error in reading that Humans did things like invent the wheel, create laws to protect all people and go to the moon that cannot be true humans cannot even use  the energy that even a flea would go pfft! to.

Even amoebas  send out communication signals that pass some form of knowledge (at their level) here supposedly the brightest complex animal on this planet prefer




You are too much! Deep man, is he the one in the middle?
Never giving up Vis. Just find starving a pithy, attention to the nothingness of anti-science (truth); have a way of driving the blog in a negative way. How many posts does NativSun have to repeat against all known truth and science before he gets the ban hammer? He reminds me of a Kardashian.
72. vis0

Quoting 70. DeepSeaRising:



You are too much! Deep man, is he the one in the middle?
i'm the one on the end left off the image didn't make the cut i  was asked to make another "no evil" gesture and mae one for smell no evil  bu it was considered too PG

ONE MORE thing my comment was not dorected at DeepSeaRising: but the thought that ignore ALL the time is a good thing, i wish my style of an ignore feature would be adapted , i thought of it for Taz's sake and its somewhere on my blog or Dr. Masters blog. A Japanese soicial site is interested so i'm hoping the French friend that created a rough form of that javascript like features can eMail me   DEEP THUNDER WINDOWS RATTLED SOUNDED LIKE AN EXPLOSION 15secs ago

I'm just saying, Naga and Nea have crushed him into oblivion on a daily basis. Anyone with any desire to research what's happening on a truth basis know he's a lie apologist to the ultra elite. But it's not even that with him, he just loves the audience.
Quoting 72. vis0:


i'm the one on the end left off the image didn't make the cut i  was asked to make another "no evil" gesture and mae one for smell no evil  bu it was considered too PG

ONE MORE thing my comment was not dorected at DeepSeaRising: but the thought that ignore ALL the time is a good thing, i wish my style of an ignore feature would be adapted , i thought of it for Taz's sake and its somewhere on my blog or Dr. Masters blog. A Japanese soicial site is interested so i'm hoping the French friend that created a rough form of that javascript like features can eMail me   DEEP THUNDER WINDOWS RATTLED SOUNDED LIKE AN EXPLOSION 15secs ago




Your way with words is awash in confusing. I always read it carefully.
Quoting 39. NCHurricane2009:

I still think a subtropical or tropical system could pop up southwest of the Azores out of the weather currently in the central Atlantic, just did my latest blog update on this situation.
great post
i see how it is they retire Erika wish was a open wave for most of here life but at the same time was the deadliest natural disaster in Dominica but in 2008 they did not retire Hurricane Hanna wish killed 532 Hanna vs 32 with Erika but did more damges $509.1 million with Erika vs $160 million with Hanna in 2008


so why was hanna of 2008 not retire and Erika was? really?

From the 4/26 08Z HRRR @ 22Z (5PM CDT)

This mornings activity in northeast KS may leave an outflow boundary or at least slow the northward retreat of the warm front and produce some activity farther south in KS near the intersection of the dryline and boundary.

The location of the dryline in the graphic is a guess-not strictly based on any model output.
That central Atlantic low is taking on a cyclonic shape. Would love to see it develop, although that is unlikely because it hasn't even been invested yet.
I wish that the Atlantic system does not develop into a named storm, that would ruin my prediction about Bonnie forming on June 2.
Quoting 79. elioe:

I wish that the Atlantic system does not develop into a named storm, that would ruin my prediction about Bonnie forming on June 2.


I'm very impressed by your particularly detailed prediction for Hurricane Matthew:

Hurricane MATTHEW: August 29 - September 12. Max. sustained winds 145 kt. Landfalls on Antigua, September 3, 65 kt ; on Nevis, September 4, 65 kt ; on St. Croix, September 4, 80 kt ; on Vieques, September 5, 85 kt ; at Roosevelt Roads Puerto Rico, September 5, 85 kt ; on Great Inagua, September 6, 110 kt ; at Ocracoke North Carolina, September 11, 105 kt. Passing 20 miles east of Miami while at peak intensity.

If it pans out, expect a visit from some men in black.
Good Morning. Was it my computer or did this Blog go off-line yesterday around noon? I posted a comment just before noon and then was unable to access this Blog for the rest of the day (through 5:00 pm) before giving up.
On the weather front, all eyes in the mid-west today; very high risk today for strong t-storms and possible tornadoes; the first round for the Spring tornado season that will last for the next several weeks:


Quoting 81. weathermanwannabe:

Good Morning. Was it my computer or did this Blog go off-line yesterday around noon? I posted a comment just before noon and then was unable to access this Blog for the rest of the day (through 5:00 pm) before giving up.


There was a glitch. All the blogs were 'read only' for several hours.
Here is the current look and relative position of the jet coming in off of the Rockies:

The GFS handled this set-up today rather well; the same jet look for today and embedded ULL moving across the Central Plains today was forecast late last week in the 5-6 time frame:



And finally the forecast highs for 5:00 pm EDT today; we should probably expect to see a nice dry line form later today as the front and low pushes East. There will be lots of instability and shear in place from Texas to the North as the front meet the very warm and unstable air flowing up from the Gulf; classic tornadic set-up.

Quoting 80. yonzabam:

If it pans out, expect a visit from some men in black.


LOL, I can imagine. After making a prediction with some little scientific basis, but mostly random generation as well as some dramatic and comedic details, the most improbable case would happen: the most dramatic track I made happened to become realized exactly right. One day I would get a phone call from USA, saying that the NWS wants to hire me as a clairvoyant.

Perhaps not. But if by that time there's a president Trump that has appointed the Secretary of Commerce, I wouldn't be so surprised.
Significant tornado parameter map.
The current doppler look and SPC reports for the past 3 hours; as noted by Mr. Henson in his post above, we are already seeing hail reports this morning in North Kansas from those cells pushing across the border with Nebraska and Missouri:

last3hours Reports Graphic
Upper Mississippi Valley sector loop




Quoting 81. weathermanwannabe:

Good Morning. Was it my computer ..


Never assume it's your computer.
Quoting 63. bappit:

Most of your opinion is speculation. The part about quoting them that NativeSun brings up, though, is more factual. Also, trying to do a close reading and line by line rebuttal of what is, after all, baseless trash seems ... odd. Then there is the piling on that occurs. After one person gives a rebuttal, a few more often follow. If a troll is to be rebutted, isn't one enough? Is the flagging mechanism broken?

Also, can't the rebuttals be a little shorter? Aren't there resources like Cook's SkepticalScience that collects rebuttals of common denialist themes? Do people bother to check there before submitting another essay to the comment section?
If the number of upvotes a particular comment receives is any indication of how well-received that comment is--and it is indeed our only public metric of any kind here--most of Xyrus's line-by-line refutations are popular. They're funny; they're profound; they're instructional; they throw shade on idiocy, and light on the the truth. And, most of all, they make people think. And that's a good thing; the world is in a precarious situation right now, and the more who are made aware of that situation, the better. And, as has been demonstrated time and again, simply linking to another website will seldom have the desired effect. Besides, I'd rather take a few minutes to read and understand one of Xyrus's entertaining, fact-filled rebuttals than waste one second on some of the other commentary here. You know?

(I do find it interesting--or, to use your term, odd--that anyone would refer to more than one rebuttal as "piling on". To me, it's more like "multiple comments being posted in response to something idiotic but not flag-worthy". But to each their own, I suppose...)
Storms really joining up and becoming more of a line overnight. Pretty crazy development though.
Hi, abroad. Wish you best luck with the impending severe weather! Meanwhile central Europe is under the reign of low "Uta" (see below), enhancing the enduring trough of cold weather with stormy winds, showers, snow and even thunderstorms. Accordingly I caught a feverish cold and will go back to bed now ...


Saved current airmass pic showing Uta filled with cold arctic air (purple).


Updating IR loop.
The blog froze up again a few minutes ago. I hope it doesn't go down today like it did yesterday.
Quoting 60. Dakster:

I've been following this story for awhile now and it's starting to heat up. (pun intended) The bad thing is that climate change regarding temps and sea level rise, may take Turkey Point Nuclear Power Plant with it. Not because it will flood out, but because the cooling canals can't handle the extra heat and rising tides may be pushing salt water into the fresh water aquifer. In addition to high levels of radiation found in biscayne bay. (which wasn't addressed in this particular article I will link at the end)

At the very least a very expensive bill for FPL (and thus for it's customers) is coming if FPL wants to continue to operate Turkey Point -which not only do they - they want to ADD TWO MORE REACTORS to it.

Now, I am all for nuclear power, assuming we use it as safe as possible. However, seems a little foolish, if not scary, to plan to expand when you can't even keep up with what you got.

http://www.miamiherald.com/news/local/environment /article73855992.html

Link
This has nothing to do with climate change, the new reactors and the existing ones use more water to cool the plant, and the freshwater receding is due to the amount of new people living in South Florida and the Keys.
Quoting 60. Dakster:

I've been following this story for awhile now and it's starting to heat up. (pun intended) The bad thing is that climate change regarding temps and sea level rise, may take Turkey Point Nuclear Power Plant with it. Not because it will flood out, but because the cooling canals can't handle the extra heat and rising tides may be pushing salt water into the fresh water aquifer. In addition to high levels of radiation found in biscayne bay. (which wasn't addressed in this particular article I will link at the end)

At the very least a very expensive bill for FPL (and thus for it's customers) is coming if FPL wants to continue to operate Turkey Point -which not only do they - they want to ADD TWO MORE REACTORS to it.

Now, I am all for nuclear power, assuming we use it as safe as possible. However, seems a little foolish, if not scary, to plan to expand when you can't even keep up with what you got.

http://www.miamiherald.com/news/local/environment /article73855992.html

Link
Sorry didn't see your part about high levels of radiation in the bay, really, where do you get your info from, and don't say this link, their is a very, very small amount of a type of radio active material showing up in a few test samples, way below the level that is considered safe for animal and human life, please enough of the doom and gloom that shows up on this WEATHER BLOG. You do know Turkey Point took a direct hit by Cat 5 Hurricane Andrew, and there was never a problem afterwards.



Lot of rotation with that complex north of Kansas City.
Quoting 64. Dakster:



Snowing in the mountains here (Anchorage area), coming down as mist... Should be mid 30's in the morning. It's hit and miss with the frost in the morning, usually it's gone by the time I wake up as the sun has already been out for a couple of hours. (and I get up early too) In fact, it's only dusk out now at 10pm.
Hi Dakster, speaking of radiation in South Florida, are their any more reports from the West Coast and Alaska, from the Japan nuclear accident affecting the fish and shell fish in Alaska, as the plant is still pouring radioactive material into the Pacific Ocean
Quoting 96. NativeSun:

This has nothing to do with climate change, the new reactors and the existing ones use more water to cool the plant, and the freshwater receding is due to the amount of new people living in South Florida and the Keys.
Funny thing is, deniers will be saying the very same thing a few decades down the road when Turkey Point sits 100 miles offshore:



As Sea Levels Rise, Are Coastal Nuclear Plants Ready? (National Geographic, December 2015)
Quoting 63. bappit:
Most of your opinion is speculation.


Opinions are speculation, but that doesn't mean they're all baseless. I don't have access to actual blog traffic numbers, so in that respect I don't have any hard and fast numbers. That being said, it's not hard to imagine the reaction of someone who is looking for a tropical/meteorological/climatological discussion forum would have if the the first thing they see is some conspiratorial anti-government rant on how Earth Day is really communist plot. That's not the best first impression a site like this can make nor is it one that I believe Dr. M et al. wish to make on the internet community at large.

The part about quoting them that NativeSun brings up, though, is more factual. Also, trying to do a close reading and line by line rebuttal of what is, after all, baseless trash seems ... odd.


What's odd about it? Sure, we can devolve into link wars but that certainly won't convince anyone of anything other than you know how to use a search engine. Refuting an argument point by point makes a much stronger case.

It seems that you disagree that this is the correct forum for such responses though, and that's fine (you may even be right). I disagree with allowing known trolls continuing to post nonsense on here. But what can you do? :)

Then there is the piling on that occurs. After one person gives a rebuttal, a few more often follow. If a troll is to be rebutted, isn't one enough? Is the flagging mechanism broken?


That may be accidental. It is on my part at least. Sometimes I get distracted or step away from the computer in the middle of a response. Sometimes it takes longer to put a response together. So on and so forth. Depending on the time of day, by the time I hit post a few other people may have already responded. Eh, it happens.

Also, can't the rebuttals be a little shorter? Aren't there resources like Cook's SkepticalScience that collects rebuttals of common denialist themes? Do people bother to check there before submitting another essay to the comment section?


That depends on if said deniers are trying to re-wrap an old trope in new wrapping. Or they're miscontruing the results of new research. Or any number of factors. But more importantly this is a public blog and short of some loose guidelines people can and do post whatever they want about whatever they want.

To each their own. You can of course always put me on ignore as well so you don't have to see my tome-like posts. :)
A lot of Nuke plants are next to waterways (both fresh and salt) to take advantage of the waters to cool the reactors; all reactors (Turkey Point as an example and Fukajima in Japan) are vulnerable to sea level rise if the back-up generators that run the operating systems in case of a power failure (thus preventing a melt-down) are not protected from water intrusion.  Storm surge from a large tropical storm is a problem at any point and will become a larger problem as sea level rises.................................They will have to some retro-fitting and/or modifications to address this issue in the coming decades for all the coastal plants. 
103. OKsky
Its high alert mode today in okc. Everyone at the office showed up early in case they need to leave early (myself included) and I heard that some schools even called the day off.
dont think many people believe the watersrising. the price of florida waterfront homes has skyrocketed since 2008
Quoting 104. islander101010:

dont think many people believe the watersrising. the price of florida waterfront homes has skyrocketed since 2008


So has the price to insure those homes. Property values, even waterfront ones, rely on other factors than just projected sea level rise.
Hope everyone stays safe with the onset of a rather severe day in terms of weather in the US!

Here's a view of the Atlantic area of interest:



Heard the first thunder of the year today, although no rain. Certainly chilly for April though!
We'll have to see if this gets upgraded as the day goes on. Currently the SPC is only giving a 10% probability of seeing an EF2-EF5 tornado within 25 miles of a point.
I hate to post this on the eve of a major bad weather event, but. . .

Per the latest science, and in my layman's opinion, the scientist are still pulling punches, so the estimates are still low, the prediction is for mean sea level to be 9 feet higher between 2050 and 2060.

As the sea level rise will not be linear, we can roughly guestimate what kind of numbers will come quickly, to tell us what will happen.

Rather than get the sum of geometric sequences and area under the curve, we can do a simple bit of math. Assume that 2/3 (you can put any number here above 1/2) of the sea level rise will take place in the last half of the period. Taking 2056 (because it is an even 40 years, and 2060 is the outlier anyway.) we get that 6 feet of the 9 feet will take place between 2036 and 2056. Doing that again, for the 20 year period from 2016 to 2036 we can that 2 feet of the 3 feet will take place between 2026 and 2036. And then one more time. we take the period between 2021 and 2026 and assign it 16 inches of sea level rise. That leaves us with an 8 inch sea level rise in the next 5 years.

Divide that again, and you will get roughly 2 inches of sea level rise in the next 24 months.

That my friends is measurable and now. It is not theory, or it will prove or disprove theory.

My guess is that sometime between 2020 and 2025 the rising seas will hit that average Joe Six Pack right between the eyes, if not sooner.

Cheers
Qazulight
Quoting 104. islander101010:

dont think many people believe the watersrising. the price of florida waterfront homes has skyrocketed since 2008


Yep and I was happy to be able to sell now, while I still can. (and didn't need a boat to get to my old property).

Insurance is high and taxes are getting higher, since flood abatement isn't cheap. Especially in Florida because you are basically on top of limestone and/or coral rock, which looks like swiss cheese. Water just comes up from below.
110. VR46L
Considering the day that is in it


The Historic Tornadoes of April 2011
It appears that the ULL at 32N 47W has worked it 's way to the surface and we might just about to see another early tropical system in STS Bonnie.
Quoting 111. stoormfury:

It appears that the ULL at 32N 47W has worked it 's way to the surface and we might just about to see another early tropical system in STS Bonnie.
No not really. It's running out of time. Let's wait til June.
Quoting 100. Neapolitan:

Funny thing is, deniers will be saying the very same thing a few decades down the road when Turkey Point sits 100 miles offshore:



As Sea Levels Rise, Are Coastal Nuclear Plants Ready? (National Geographic, December 2015)

They will. Just like Australia invests in new coal plants (funded by climate mitigation & research money) and mines while last week Peabody went bust over billions of just such investments.
Part of humanity is absolutely utterly insane.
I don't know how tropical Storm Fay in 2008 wasn't retired,she made 4 landfall's in Florida and caused major flooding.
Quoting 112. Andrebrooks:

No not really. It's running out of time. Let's wait til June.

I still think it could form, but it is not extremely likely. Models keep the system around for a few more days, so it could still develop. Don't give up just yet.
Still early morning (for us on EST) in Texas and clear so far on the hatched areas for today; have to give it several hours for the pm t-storms to perk up and we could see the worst weather there in the later afternoon and rolling into the evening hours:

South Plains sector loop

Climate Denial Crock of the Week

New Video: Surveilling the Scientists








Severe storms are expected to form Tuesday afternoon and continue through the evening and into the night.
The strongest storms may produce hail larger than baseballs, damaging winds, and tornadoes.
There is still some uncertainty regarding how many storms will form initially, but higher confidence in storms becoming widespread east of Interstate-35.
In any case, it will be very important to pay close attention to the weather on Tuesday.
College of DuPage Meteorology
Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings
Note: This page will reload every 2 minutes. Warnings are listed with the most recent first.
Click on the station ID to bring up list of recent severe weather statements.
SVR T-STORM WARNING NORMAN OK - KOUN 936 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO - KEAX 924 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016
FLASH FLOOD WARNING KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO - KEAX 900 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO - KEAX 844 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO - KEAX 811 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO - KEAX 751 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO - KEAX 731 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO - KEAX 725 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO - KEAX 712 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO - KEAX 711 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING TOPEKA KS - KTOP 655 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO - KEAX 651 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO - KEAX 649 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING TOPEKA KS - KTOP 647 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO - KEAX 645 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016
Quoting 115. FirstCoastMan:

I don't know how tropical Storm Fay in 2008 wasn't retired,she made 4 landfall's in Florida and caused major flooding.


She hit Fl 4 times, I live in Central Fl and didn't get anything at all. To my south and east they got slammed with incredible rains.
123. elioe
Quoting 108. Qazulight:


Neither does sea level rise have to be exponential, nor follow any simple curve. It doesn't have to be even monotonous, since there are so many factors in place. My own half-educated guess:

In a few years, Arctic Ocean will have ice-free summers. Soon, increased wind action on sea surface will destroy the halocline. Near 10 GJ/m² of excess heat starts to pour out from the depths of ocean, until the ocean can start freezing again. For the rest of this century, deep parts of Arctic Ocean will be icefree all year round.

Huge wintertime interactions between the ocean and surrounding continental air will draw lots of heat and moisture from the ocean surface, which will remain constantly just above freezing. In some surrounding places such as northern flank of Verkhoyansk mountains, annual snowfall will exceed 10 meters. At least temporary glaciation will ensue in parts of Northern Siberia. (This decreases world ocean volume.)

During summers, solar heating doesn't need to melt any sea ice, so the ocean surface easily reaches 5 - 10 C in September. Often, this moist and warm air rises over East Greenlandic mountains, losing its moisture and becoming a Foehn wind above the glacier. Soon, annual Greenlandic melting increases by at least an order of magnitude. (This increases world ocean volume.)

As the deep water of Arctic gradually cools to near -1.8C, it becomes denser and soon starts flowing into Atlantic, replacing the less dense North Atlantic Deep Water in a few centuries. (This decreases world ocean volume.)

Meanwhile over the Antarctic, increased infrared emissions from the upper troposphere cool it down and raise pressures on the surface. Katabatic winds increase, even though their temperature increases also somewhat. Sea ice area increases, but the increasing winds also help to break ice shelves. This allows to West Antarctic glaciers to flow more quickly. (This increases world ocean volume.)

So I estimate: 1.5 meters of sea level rise within this century. The rate of rising experiences a rapid increase sometime within twenty years, but then stabilizes.
However, even if CO2 levels were to remain at near 400 ppm for the next centuries, I'd expect Greenland and West Antarctic to slowly melt, with perhaps 10 meters sea level rise by 2500 AD.
Quoting 122. Bucsboltsfan:



She hit Fl 4 times, I live in Central Fl and didn't get anything at all. To my south and east they got slammed with incredible rains.

You were lucky. I got 18 inches in Oviedo, where I used to live (hence the user name). Friends in Melbourne got closer to 30. Our roof held up fine (thanks to 2004 season giving us a new one), but we had leakage up through the concrete base in my house.
Time to start preparing for Hurricane Season! Here's a great resource.

#HurricaneStrong is a national hurricane resilience initiative to save lives and homes through collaboration with leading organizations in the disaster safety movement. The effort comes at a critical time as public awareness about hurricane readiness is declining due to fewer land-falling storms in the Atlantic.

The collaboration offers empowering hurricane safety and mitigation information through business summits, digital channels, events, home improvement store workshops, media outreach, school lesson plans, and a social media campaign featuring a #HurricaneStrong “Pose”.
Can we get through the Spring storms coming today and this week before discussing what Tropical weather may be in store? I love Hurricane season as much as the next blog commenter here, but the plains are under the gun right now, and we need good guidance. I am scheduled to start my shift around the same time as the storms are to start impacting my area. The most updated information about this weather event is what is most needed at this time, not speculations on how high (because yes, they will) the seas will rise as a result of climate change in 2020/2050, or if "Bonnie" will get to play in the Tropics in June.

Apologies, but I am really stressing about this.
129. OKsky
Quoting 128. AegirsGal:

Can we get through the Spring storms coming today and this week before discussing what Tropical weather may be in store? I love Hurricane season as much as the next blog commenter here, but the plains are under the gun right now, and we need good guidance. I am scheduled to start my shift around the same time as the storms are to start impacting my area. The most updated information about this weather event is what is most needed at this time, not speculations on how high (because yes, they will) the seas will rise as a result of climate change in 2020/2050, or if "Bonnie" will get to play in the Tropics in June.

Apologies, but I am really stressing about this.


I totally understand where you are coming from, I share your stress. However do you think a comment section of any blog is really the best place for guidance regarding an emerging weather event? Stick to your local news and places such as the storm prediction center.

In case you are new to the area and have no idea what to do in these situations here is a good series of videos to watch.
We have at least a few hours before the action starts.
Good,

BP says it could cut capital spending further after reporting an 80 percent drop in profits in the first quarter of the year, when oil prices touched a near 13-year low. Read more: http://reut.rs/1VPyBzQ
Atmosphere is warming up
Ok, so with Hurricane Alex in January the NHC was all over that one (they were issuing outlooks several days before). So why on earth is the NHC completely out to lunch with what looks like a subtropical system developing southwest of the Azores right now?!
Quoting 115. FirstCoastMan:

I don't know how tropical Storm Fay in 2008 wasn't retired,she made 4 landfall's in Florida and caused major flooding.


Some government body has to ask for it to be retired. What seemed like unending rain in biblical proportions doesn't automatically qualify for retirement.

Was 49.9 this morning, possible rain late Wed, early Thurs. CoCoRaHS reported .16 for yesterdays storm (ca-rv-19)
Quoting 130. Patrap:

Good,

BP says it could cut capital spending further after reporting an 80 percent drop in profits in the first quarter of the year, when oil prices touched a near 13-year low. Read more: http://reut.rs/1VPyBzQ


They blamed the GOM disaster too. Kinda iteresting that there is a large BP building in Anchorage, but I couldn't tell you where a BP fuel station is here. They pump the oil out of the ground here, but don't sell the finished product here.
Quoting 130. Patrap:

Good,

BP says it could cut capital spending further after reporting an 80 percent drop in profits in the first quarter of the year, when oil prices touched a near 13-year low. Read more: http://reut.rs/1VPyBzQ


That is good news, looks like it could be a buying opportunity for the stock even with the 4% pop in the price today. Industrial's and energy have been the moneymakers for me since reallocating in Feb. I still like yield but for how much longer?

Cool here today in low 40's, cloudy and a decent wind of about 15mph

Good luck to those in the Plains today
WOW!!! Look at all that red!!!



138. beell


A visible look at the current warm sector with the dryline starting to sharpen up from north west OK into central KS and a bit of a leftover boundary from this morning's MCS arcing across north east KS.

The atmosphere is a little worked over behind (north of this boundary) with dp's in the mid 50's. It should recover this afternoon but development here may be delayed.
Little early for the cap to be breaking east of OKC. Models didn't show that happening. Wonder how this will affect atmosphere recovery?
Quoting 139. DeepSeaRising:

Little early for the cap to be breaking east of OKC. Models didn't show that happening. Wonder how this will affect atmosphere recovery?


If storms are already developing, that means the atmosphere has recovered sufficiently enough for storms to develop.
HRRR is calling for a stormy night. It will be interesting to see when the dry line decides to fire off later this afternoon.
Quoting 132. NCHurricane2009:

Ok, so with Hurricane Alex in January the NHC was all over that one (they were issuing outlooks several days before). So why on earth is the NHC completely out to lunch with what looks like a subtropical system developing southwest of the Azores right now?!


They are currently analyzing it as frontal in nature (High Seas Forecast)

ATLC LOW PRES 992 MB JUST N OF AREA NEAR 32N46W. COLD FRONT
FROM LOW THROUGH 31N44W TO 22N52W..


Also their Tropical Cyclone Weather Services Program allows them to designate as a Gale:

2.1 Subtropical Cyclone Public Advisory (TCP). NHC will issue subtropical cyclone
advisories. However, due to the lack of well-defined criteria for distinguishing subtropical from
non-tropical lows, marginally-subtropical systems may be handled as non-tropical gale or storm
centers in High Seas forecast products.


Which they show on the 24 hr surface forecast:

Quoting 138. beell:



A visible look at the current warm sector with the dryline starting to sharpen up from north west OK into central KS and a bit of a leftover boundary from this morning's MCS arcing across north east KS.

The atmosphere is a little worked over behind (north of this boundary) with dp's in the mid 50's. It should recover this afternoon but development here may be delayed.



GOES-14 1-Minute Data
(2016/04/18-2016/05/15 only)
That'd be on the order of...










SPC AC 261631

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1131 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

VALID 261630Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM N CNTRL TX NWD INTO SERN
NEB...

...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE ENH AREA...FROM
S CNTRL TX NNE INTO THE LWR MO AND MID-MS VLYS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE ABOVE AREAS
FROM S TX INTO THE LWR-MID OH VLYS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE
MID-ATLANTIC...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE ABOVE AREAS
FROM THE SRN AND CNTRL PLNS TO THE MID-ATLANTIC CST...

...SUMMARY...
A WIDESPREAD...MULTI-EPISODE...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE-WEATHER EVENT
APPEARS LIKELY LATER TODAY THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT OVER PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. TORNADOES...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WIND WILL OCCUR. LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND AND MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL ALSO MAY OCCUR FROM THE LOWER MISSOURI AND LOWER OHIO
VALLEYS TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST.

...SYNOPTIC SETUP...
NR CO UPR LOW WILL PIVOT ENE AS A STRONG NEGATIVE TILT TROUGH THIS
PERIOD AS DOWNSTREAM RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE MS VLY...S AND W OF
QSTNRY SE CANADA VORTEX. SATELLITE AND UPR AIR DATA SUGGEST TWO
SHORTWAVE IMPULSES OF NOTE IN BASE OF CO SYSTEM...ONE NOW OVER FAR W
TX...AND THE OTHER...MORE SIGNIFICANT ONE ALONG THE AZ-NM BORDER.
BOTH FEATURES SHOULD TURN NE ACROSS THE SRN PLNS LATER TODAY THROUGH
TNGT...LARGELY GOVERNING DIURNALLY-ENHANCED STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
REGION. FARTHER NE...A SERIES OF LOW AMPLITUDE DISTURBANCES WILL
CONTINUE MOVING ESEWD ALONG SRN FLANK OF CANADIAN LOW...THE LEAD ONE
OF WHICH WILL MOVE OF THE NJ CST THIS EVE.

...SRN PLNS TODAY THROUGH TNGT...
VERY UNSTABLE AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH BROAD CORRIDOR
OF SBCAPE AOA 3500 J/KG FROM W CNTRL TX NNE INTO CNTRL AND ERN KS
/COURTESY OF RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE SURMOUNTED BY DEEP AND
PRONOUNCED EML/...WILL FURTHER DESTABILIZE WITH MDT TO STRONG SFC
HEATING TODAY.

COMBINATION OF SFC HEATING WITH STRENGTHENING LARGE-SCALE FORCING
FOR ASCENT WITH LEAD UPR IMPULSE SHOULD PROMOTE INTENSE STORM
DEVELOPMENT BY MID TO LATE AFTN ALONG DRY LINE/LEE TROUGH FROM W
CNTRL TX NNE INTO OK AND KS. SIZABLE MERIDIONAL COMPONENT TO 700-500
MB FLOW ATTM DOWNSTREAM FROM THE IMPULSE SUGGESTS THAT LOW-LVL
BOUNDARY WILL SHOW RELATIVELY MINIMAL EWD MOVEMENT DURING THE DAY.

STRENGTHENING LOW TO MID-LVL FLOW WITH APPROACH/EJECTION OF UPR
IMPULSES /WITH 700-500 MB SPEEDS INCREASING TO AOA 50 KTS FROM NW TX
INTO WRN/CNTRL OK/ LIKELY WILL PROMOTE NUMEROUS SUPERCELLS CAPABLE
OF VERY LARGE HAIL...HIGH WIND...AND STRONG TORNADOES. ESPECIALLY IN
TX AND SRN OK...THIS ACTIVITY LIKELY WILL EVOLVE INTO SEVERAL BROKEN
BANDS THAT MOVE/DEVELOP ENEWD THROUGH TNGT. EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS IN
THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A RISK FOR A FEW TORNADOES...IN
ADDITION LARGE HAIL AND SWATHS OF DMGG WIND ENE INTO THE ARKLATEX.

SOME POTENTIAL ALSO WILL EXIST IN THE NEAR TERM FOR CURRENT ELEVATED
STORMS IN CNTRL OK TO TAP INTO THE WARMING/VERY MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER. WERE THIS TO OCCUR...SUCH A SCENARIO COULD JUMP-START SVR
WEATHER THREAT...INCLUDING TORNADOES IN ADDITION TO VERY LARGE
HAIL...NEWD INTO SE KS BY THIS AFTN.

...CNTRL PLNS THIS AFTN THROUGH TNGT...
HEATING AND APPROACH OF LEAD IMPULSE ALSO WILL SUPPORT RENEWED STORM
DEVELOPMENT INVOF STALLED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND QSTNRY SYNOPTIC FRONT
OVER KS-MO-SRN NEB AREA LATER THIS AFTN. WHILE WIND PROFILES
INITIALLY WILL BE WEAKER AN EXHIBIT BACK-VEERING WITH
HEIGHT...PROFILES WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS LATER
TODAY THROUGH LATE TNGT. TORNADOES
COULD OCCUR AS THE LIKELY NNE-MOVING STORMS INTERACT WITH ENHANCED
SRH NEAR THE SLOWLY-MOVING BOUNDARIES.

...MID-MS VLY TO MID-ATLANTIC CST THIS AFTN...
RESIDUAL EML DEPICTED ON MORNING RAOBS FROM THE OH VLY TO
MID-ATLANTIC CST WILL PROMOTE BOWING STRUCTURES IN DEEP
UNIDIRECTIONAL WNW FLOW IN BASE OF CANADIAN VORTEX. HEATING...WIND
PROFILES...AND DEGREE OF LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT SHOULD BE
MOST FAVORABLE FOR POSSIBLE DMGG WIND GUSTS IN PA AND NJ...BUT MORE
SLOWLY-MOVING CELLS WITH A MORE LOCALIZED WIND THREAT CANNOT BE
RULED OUT OVER THE MID AND LWR OH VLYS. IN ADDITION...CURRENT CNTRL
MO MCS EXPECTED CONTINUE TO POSE A RISK FOR DMGG WIND/SVR HAIL INTO
MID-LATE AFTN...DESPITE WEAKENING FLOW/RIDGING ALOFT...GIVEN
ON-GOING DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF IT.
10% hatched tornado area has been expanded across South Oklahoma and North Texas, where low-level winds are more backed and gravity waves are apparent. This might be where the greatest chance of significant tornadoes is this afternoon, not in Kansas.

If you notice the trend the SPC has been increasing the severe weather threat down further into Texas. Yesterday, Texas wasn't really in the picture for medium tornado risk.

Now N.C. Texas is becoming a major player. But N.C. Texas should be later this evening into tonight.
147. beell
too slow!
148. OKsky
As if the weather isn't enough... we keep feeling earthquakes today, lol.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 123. elioe:


Neither does sea level rise have to be exponential, nor follow any simple curve. It doesn't have to be even monotonous, since there are so many factors in place. My own half-educated guess:

In a few years, Arctic Ocean will have ice-free summers. Soon, increased wind action on sea surface will destroy the halocline. Near 10 GJ/m² of excess heat starts to pour out from the depths of ocean, until the ocean can start freezing again. For the rest of this century, deep parts of Arctic Ocean will be icefree all year round.

Huge wintertime interactions between the ocean and surrounding continental air will draw lots of heat and moisture from the ocean surface, which will remain constantly just above freezing. In some surrounding places such as northern flank of Verkhoyansk mountains, annual snowfall will exceed 10 meters. At least temporary glaciation will ensue in parts of Northern Siberia. (This decreases world ocean volume.)

During summers, solar heating doesn't need to melt any sea ice, so the ocean surface easily reaches 5 - 10 C in September. Often, this moist and warm air rises over East Greenlandic mountains, losing its moisture and becoming a Foehn wind above the glacier. Soon, annual Greenlandic melting increases by at least an order of magnitude. (This increases world ocean volume.)

As the deep water of Arctic gradually cools to near -1.8C, it becomes denser and soon starts flowing into Atlantic, replacing the less dense North Atlantic Deep Water in a few centuries. (This decreases world ocean volume.)

Meanwhile over the Antarctic, increased infrared emissions from the upper troposphere cool it down and raise pressures on the surface. Katabatic winds increase, even though their temperature increases also somewhat. Sea ice area increases, but the increasing winds also help to break ice shelves. This allows to West Antarctic glaciers to flow more quickly. (This increases world ocean volume.)

So I estimate: 1.5 meters of sea level rise within this century. The rate of rising experiences a rapid increase sometime within twenty years, but then stabilizes.
However, even if CO2 levels were to remain at near 400 ppm for the next centuries, I'd expect Greenland and West Antarctic to slowly melt, with perhaps 10 meters sea level rise by 2500 AD.

Hmmm. Thought has been produced here.

One thing though, 'increased infrared emissions from the upper troposphere cool it down' - ?