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Bud a heavy rain threat for Mexico; 1-year anniversary of Joplin tornado

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 11:07 AM GMT on May 22, 2012

Tropical Storm Bud intensified into a 40 mph storm this morning in the Eastern Pacific, off the coast of Mexico, and poses a significant flooding threat to the country late this week. The storm has been slow to organize due to its large size, as seen on satellite loops. But with favorable SSTs of 29 - 30°C and light to moderate wind shear in the 5 - 15 knots range expected along its path, Bud should steadily organize today and Wednesday, and become Hurricane Bud by Thursday. A trough of low pressure is expected to swing north of the storm late this week, turning Bud to the north towards the Mexican coast between Manzanillo and Acapulco. However, the trough of low pressure may not be strong enough to bring Bud ashore, and the storm could linger near the coast for several days, potentially deluging the coast with very heavy rains capable of triggering dangerous flash floods and mudslides, beginning on Friday.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Bud.

Record earliest date for formation of the season's second named storm
Bud is the second named storm to form in the Eastern Pacific in 2012--Tropical Storm Aletta, which formed on May 15, was the first. Bud's appearance on May 21 marks the earliest date since record keeping began in 1949 for formation of the season's second named storm. The previous record was set in 1984, when the second named storm formed on May 29. Only two other years have had two named storms in May in the Eastern Pacific--2007 and 1956, which both had the second named storm of the year form on May 30. If Bud ends up making landfall in Mexico as a hurricane, it would be only the second Eastern Pacific May hurricane on record to hit Mexico. The other was Hurricane Agatha of May 24,1971, which hit the same stretch of coast that Bud is threatening. Agatha made landfall as a Category 2 hurricane about 45 mi (75 km) from Zihuatanejo, Mexico. The village of Playa Azul was hard hit by the storm, with up to half of the village's homes destroyed. Ocean temperatures this year in the region where Aletta and Bud formed are only slightly above average, so the large scale atmospheric patterns are probably more to blame for this year's exceptionally early start to hurricane season in the Eastern Pacific.


Figure 2. True-color visible satellite image of Alberto taken by the Aqua satellite at 2 pm EDT Monday May 21, 2012. Image credit: NASA.

Alberto headed out to sea
Tropical Depression Alberto is racing northeastwards out to sea, and has been substantially weakened by very high wind shear of 50 knots and passage over cool ocean waters of 24°C (75°F). Alberto will not trouble any land areas, and does not have long to live before being completely dismantled by the high wind shear.


Figure 3. Aerial view of damage from the May 22, 2011 Joplin, Missouri tornado. Image credit: Wikipedia.

One-year anniversary of the Joplin, Missouri EF-5 tornado
May 22 marks the 1-year year anniversary of the deadly Joplin Missouri tornado. The massive EF-5 tornado with winds in excess of 200 mph mowed a 14-mile path of destruction up to one mile wide across the southern portion of the city. The tornado killed 161 people--the highest death toll from a U.S. tornado since 1947, and the seventh deadliest tornado in U.S. history. The tornado did $3 billion in damage, making it the most expensive tornado in world history. The death toll from the tornado undoubtedly would have been higher had the National Weather Service not issued a tornado warning a full 24 minutes in advance of the tornado. This is nearly double the average tornado warning lead time of thirteen minutes.

Links
The most remarkable audio I've ever heard of people surviving a direct hit by a violent tornado was posted to Youtube by someone who took shelter in the walk-in storage refrigerator at a gas station during the Joplin tornado. There isn't much video.


Video 1. Video of the Joplin, Missouri tornado of May 22, 2011, entering the southwest side of town. Filmed by TornadoVideos.net Basehunters team Colt Forney, Isaac Pato, Kevin Rolfs, and Scott Peake.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
We have invest 94L!!!

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al942012.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201205230010
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 94, 2012, DB, O, 2012052300, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL942012
AL, 94, 2012052300, , BEST, 0, 185N, 843W, 25, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,

hey can you post the link thanks
and here you go guys


AL, 94, 2012052300, , BEST, 0, 185N, 843W, 25, 1008, LO
Quoting keithneese:
Hats off to wunderkid. You called it!

thanks
though I think they should have brought it down to around 17N but they did get the 84W bit right
Quoting cg2916:


The problem is that the chances of this are so low. It's great that they tagged it, but it's more of a "just in case" thing.

I think so too... I'm surprised they tagged it but I don't think it's a bad idea... It's just unlikely this will develop.

By the way which models support development? I honestly haven't been following this one at all.
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

hey can you post the link thanks


Here is the file for 94L.

Link
94L has a good ch of becomeing are next name storm
they do not think it is going to amount to much..Link
0z ATCF update on Bud is in- no changes.
No change to Bud's file; it remains at 35 knots:

EP, 02, 2012052300, , BEST, 0, 126N, 1055W, 35, 1004, TS,
Alberto is the 1st storm this year too skip TD
Quoting LargoFl:
they do not think it is going to amount to much..Link

That's from last season...
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

I think so too... I'm surprised they tagged it but I don't think it's a bad idea... It's just unlikely this will develop.

By the way which models support development? I honestly haven't been following this one at all.
Agreed
Quoting LargoFl:
they do not think it is going to amount to much..Link

So apprently its at 10%?

Edit: Nevermind, that's a 94L from last year.
Quoting LargoFl:
they do not think it is going to amount to much..Link


Check the date, that's 2011.
94L, no surprise there.
Quoting keithneese:
Hats off to wunderkid. You called it!


That he did. A week ago in fact!
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

Shear is still too high though... As was mentioned earlier its a small, fragile system and will be disrupted easily... Also it remains very broad and disorganized to start with so it would need much more favorable conditions to consolidate. Only my opinion though :)


shear is decreasing and will be more favorable for development as the week goes on
Wonder if/when they are ever going to get the Radar up and running here I thought it was supposed to be finished last year




Quoting wunderkidcayman:

thanks
though I think they should have brought it down to around 17N but they did get the 84W bit right
Quoting WxGeekVA:


That he did. A week ago in fact!

We all called this. Three weeks ago. This is the system the GFS was showing in the early portion of the month, with low pressure struggling to consolidate in the Atlantic and a tropical storm in the East Pacific.
SHIPS does nothing with it.

25 26 28 29 29 27 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS

Apparently shear WON'T be lowering...

SHEAR (KT) 28 28 29 28 37 53 57 41 34 25 27 19 18
Quoting WxGeekVA:


That he did. A week ago in fact!

and didn't you and some other say that I was wrong hmm I guess no then

Quoting Hurricanes101:


shear is decreasing and will be more favorable for development as the week goes on


should be by tomrrow morning mid day time
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

We all called this. Three weeks ago. This is the system the GFS was showing in the early portion of the month, with low pressure struggling to consolidate in the Atlantic and a tropical storm in the East Pacific.


Maybe so, but you have to admit wunderkid caught quite a bit of flack for sticking with it. In fact, I believe this morning he was called a "wishcaster".
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

We all called this. Three weeks ago. This is the system the GFS was showing in the early portion of the month, with low pressure struggling to consolidate in the Atlantic and a tropical storm in the East Pacific.
But he was the most persistent with this now we will see if it develops into a TD or TS.
Quoting keithneese:


Check the date, that's 2011.
yes i saw that..thanks
I'm curious to hear Levi's take on 94...
Quoting keithneese:


Maybe so, but you have to admit wunderkid caught quite a bit of flack for sticking with it. In fact, I believe this morning he was called a "wishcaster".


Exactly. He stuck with it even after everyone said it wouldn't amount to anything.
Quoting Tazmanian:
Alberto is the 1st storm this year too skip TD

Maybe its just me but I feel like that's a growing trend- storms going straight to TS without being a TD...

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
SHIPS does nothing with it.

25 26 28 29 29 27 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS

Apparently shear WON'T be lowering...

SHEAR (KT) 28 28 29 28 37 53 57 41 34 25 27 19 18

That may be a little high on the shear forecast but still it gets my point across that shear will be too high for anything to come out of this.
Quoting Saltydogbwi1:
Wonder if/when they are ever going to get the Radar up and running here I thought it was supposed to be finished last year





it should have been finish or almost finish my boss Fred sambula said it is to be finish by early summer 2012 think he said

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
SHIPS does nothing with it.

25 26 28 29 29 27 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS

Apparently shear WON'T be lowering...

SHEAR (KT) 28 28 29 28 37 53 57 41 34 25 27 19 18

I don't trust is cause it is the fist run on this system and first runs are alway thrown out the door
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

We all called this. Three weeks ago. This is the system the GFS was showing in the early portion of the month, with low pressure struggling to consolidate in the Atlantic and a tropical storm in the East Pacific.


GFS could have been calling any system a month ago..it even dropped the system so I wouldnt say this is the same system..he kept with the disturbance when he was being called out with shear maps..kudos to him for sticking with his guns when a few bloggers were giving him a hard time
000
FZNT23 KNHC 222105
OFFNT3

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE SW AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC AND
CARIBBEAN SEA
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
505 PM EDT TUE MAY 22 2012

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO
22N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...THE SW N ATLANTIC S OF 31N W OF 65W
INCLUDING BAHAMAS...AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT...WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

AMZ001-230945-
SYNOPSIS FOR CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO
19N W OF 55W
505 PM EDT TUE MAY 22 2012

.SYNOPSIS...BROAD LOW PRES OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WILL LIFT NE
THROUGH THU. A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 50W S OF 13N WILL MOVE TO 55W
BY EARLY THU...60W BY EARLY FRI...AND INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
BY EARLY SAT. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER
MAINLY THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE WEEKEND
BETWEEN THE APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE AND HIGH PRES N OF THE
AREA.

$$

AMZ011-230945-
CARIBBEAN N OF 18N W OF 85W INCLUDING YUCATAN BASIN-
505 PM EDT TUE MAY 22 2012

.TONIGHT...N TO NE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 4 TO 5 FT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
.WED...N TO NE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT...BECOMING N 5 TO 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 TO 5 FT IN SE SWELL. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
.WED NIGHT...N TO NE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT...DIMINISHING TO 5 TO
10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4 TO 5 FT IN SE SWELL.
.THU...N TO NE WINDS LESS THAN 5 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT IN E TO SE
SWELL.
.THU NIGHT...E WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS 3 TO 4 FT IN SE SWELL.
.FRI...E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO 4 FT IN SE SWELL.
.SAT...E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 6 FT.
.SUN...E TO SE WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 6 FT.

$$

AMZ013-230945-
CARIBBEAN N OF 18N BETWEEN 76W AND 85W INCLUDING CAYMAN BASIN-
505 PM EDT TUE MAY 22 2012

.TONIGHT...SE WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 7 FT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
.WED...SE TO S WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 7 FT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
.WED NIGHT...SE TO S WINDS 10 TO 15 KT...INCREASING TO 15 TO
20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4 TO 6 FT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS.
.THU...S WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 6 FT. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND TSTMS.
.THU NIGHT...SE TO S WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 4 TO 6 FT IN E AND
SE SWELL. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
.FRI...E TO SE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 4 TO 6 FT IN E AND SE SWELL.
.SAT...NE TO E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 4 TO 6 FT IN E AND SE SWELL.
.SUN...E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT.

$$

AMZ015-230945-
CARIBBEAN APPROACHES TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE-
505 PM EDT TUE MAY 22 2012

.TONIGHT...E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
.WED...E TO SE WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 6 FT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
.WED NIGHT...E TO SE WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 6 FT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
.THU...E TO SE WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 6 FT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
.THU NIGHT...E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 4 TO 6 FT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
.FRI...NE TO E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT.
.SAT...NE WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS 2 TO 4 FT IN E SWELL.
.SUN...NE TO E WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT.

$$

AMZ017-230945-
GULF OF HONDURAS-
505 PM EDT TUE MAY 22 2012

.TONIGHT...N WINDS 10 TO 15 KT...BECOMING NW TO N 5 TO 10 KT
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT IN E SWELL. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS.
.WED...NW WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT IN E SWELL. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
.WED NIGHT...N WINDS 5 TO 10 KT...BECOMING E AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 2 TO 4 FT IN E SWELL.
.THU...W WINDS LESS THAN 5 KT...BECOMING N TO NE IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 TO 4 FT IN E AND SE SWELL.
.THU NIGHT...E WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
.FRI...E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT.
.SAT...E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 6 FT.
.SUN...E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 6 FT.

$$

AMZ019-230945-
CARIBBEAN FROM 15N TO 18N BETWEEN 80W AND 85W-
505 PM EDT TUE MAY 22 2012

.TONIGHT...SE TO S WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 4 TO 6 FT IN SE SWELL.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
.WED...S TO SW WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 4 TO 6 FT IN SE SWELL.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
.WED NIGHT...S WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS 4 TO 6 FT IN SE SWELL. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
.THU...SE TO S WINDS 5 TO 10 KT...INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KT IN
THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT IN SE SWELL. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS.
.THU NIGHT...E TO SE WINDS 5 TO 10 KT...BECOMING SE 10 TO 15 KT
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4 TO 6 FT IN SE SWELL. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS.
.FRI...E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 4 TO 6 FT IN E AND SE SWELL.
.SAT...E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 5 TO 7 FT IN E AND SE SWELL.
.SUN...E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 5 TO 7 FT IN E AND SE SWELL.

$$

AMZ021-230945-
CARIBBEAN FROM 15N TO 18N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W-
505 PM EDT TUE MAY 22 2012

.TONIGHT...E TO SE WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT IN E SWELL.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
.WED...E TO SE WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 8 FT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
.WED NIGHT...E TO SE WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 8 FT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
.THU...E TO SE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT...DIMINISHING TO 15 TO 20 KT IN
THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT IN E SWELL. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS.
.THU NIGHT...E TO SE WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 7 TO 9 FT IN E SWELL.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
.FRI...E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT IN E SWELL.
.SAT...NE TO E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 8 FT.
.SUN...E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 7 FT.

$$

AMZ023-230945-
CARIBBEAN N OF 15N BETWEEN 64W AND 72W-
505 PM EDT TUE MAY 22 2012

.TONIGHT...E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 8 FT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
.WED...E TO SE WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 8 FT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
.WED NIGHT...E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 8 FT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
.THU...E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 8 FT. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND TSTMS.
.THU NIGHT...E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 8 FT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
.FRI...NE TO E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 8 FT.
.SAT...E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 7 FT.
.SUN...E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 6 FT.

$$

AMZ025-230945-
OFFSHORE WATERS LEEWARD ISLANDS-
505 PM EDT TUE MAY 22 2012

.TONIGHT...E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 8 FT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS.
.WED...E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 8 FT. SCATTERED SHOWERS.
.WED NIGHT...E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 8 FT.
.THU...E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 7 FT. SCATTERED SHOWERS.
.THU NIGHT...E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 7 FT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS.
.FRI...NE TO E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 5 TO 7 FT.
.SAT...E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 4 TO 6 FT IN E SWELL.
.SUN...E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT IN E SWELL.

$$

AMZ027-230945-
TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 15N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 60W-
505 PM EDT TUE MAY 22 2012

.TONIGHT...E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 7 TO 9 FT IN NE SWELL.
.WED...E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 7 TO 8 FT.
.WED NIGHT...E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 7 TO 8 FT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS.
.THU...E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 8 FT. SCATTERED SHOWERS.
.THU NIGHT...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 6 TO 8 FT E SWELL. SCATTERED
SHOWERS.
.FRI...NE TO E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 6 TO 7 FT IN E SWELL.
.SAT...NE TO E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 5 TO 6 FT IN E SWELL.
.SUN...E WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS 4 TO 5 FT IN NE AND E SWELL.

$$

AMZ029-230945-
W CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N W OF 80W-
505 PM EDT TUE MAY 22 2012

.TONIGHT...E TO SE WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT IN E SWELL.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
.WED...SE WINDS LESS THAN 5 KT...BECOMING SE TO S IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT IN E SWELL. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
.WED NIGHT...E WINDS LESS THAN 5 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT IN NE TO E
SWELL.
.THU...SE WINDS LESS THAN 5 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT IN NE TO E SWELL.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
.THU NIGHT...E WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT IN NE TO E SWELL.
.FRI...NE TO E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT.
.SAT...NE TO E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 4 TO 6 FT IN NE TO E SWELL.
.SUN...NE TO E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 4 TO 6 FT IN NE TO E SWELL.

$$

AMZ031-230945-
CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA
BASIN-
505 PM EDT TUE MAY 22 2012

.TONIGHT...E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT IN E SWELL. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
.WED...E TO SE WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 8 FT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
.WED NIGHT...E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 8 FT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
.THU...E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT IN E SWELL.
.THU NIGHT...E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT IN E SWELL.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
.FRI...NE TO E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT IN E SWELL.
.SAT...NE TO E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 8 FT.
.SUN...NE TO E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 8 FT.

$$

AMZ033-230945-
CARIBBEAN S OF 15N BETWEEN 64W AND 72W INCLUDING VENEZUELA BASIN-
505 PM EDT TUE MAY 22 2012

.TONIGHT...E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 8 FT.
.WED...E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT...BECOMING E TO SE 15 TO 20 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 TO 8 FT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
.WED NIGHT...E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 8 FT.
.THU...E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT IN E SWELL. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
.THU NIGHT...E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT IN E SWELL. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
.FRI...E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 7 FT.
.SAT...E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 7 FT.
.SUN...E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 7 FT.

$$

AMZ035-230945-
OFFSHORE WATERS WINDWARD ISLANDS INCLUDING TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO-
505 PM EDT TUE MAY 22 2012

.TONIGHT...E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 7 FT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
.WED...E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 7 FT. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND TSTMS.
.WED NIGHT...E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 7 FT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
.THU...E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT...DIMINISHING TO 10 TO 15 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 TO 7 FT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
.THU NIGHT...E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT...DIMINISHING TO 10 TO 15 KT
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5 TO 7 FT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
.FRI...E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 4 TO 6 FT IN E SWELL.
.SAT...E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 4 TO 6 FT IN E SWELL.
.SUN...E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT.

$$

AMZ037-230945-
TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 15N BETWEEN 55W AND 60W-
505 PM EDT TUE MAY 22 2012

.TONIGHT...E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 7 TO 9 FT IN E SWELL. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
.WED...N OF 10N...E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. S OF 10N...E WINDS 10 TO
15 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT IN E SWELL. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
.WED NIGHT...E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 8 FT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
.THU...E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT...DIMINISHING TO 10 TO 15 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 TO 8 FT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
.THU NIGHT...E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 6 TO 8 FT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
.FRI...E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 6 TO 7 FT IN E SWELL.
.SAT...E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 5 TO 6 FT IN E SWELL.
.SUN...E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 5 TO 6 FT IN E SWELL.

$$

AMZ039-230945-
SW CARIBBEAN S OF 11N INCLUDING APPROACHES TO PANAMA CANAL-
505 PM EDT TUE MAY 22 2012

.TONIGHT...N WINDS LESS THAN 5 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT IN NE SWELL.
.WED...SW WINDS LESS THAN 5 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT IN NE SWELL.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
.WED NIGHT...NE WINDS LESS THAN 5 KT. SEAS 2 TO 4 FT IN NE
SWELL.
.THU...NE TO E WINDS LESS THAN 5 KT. SEAS 2 TO 4 FT IN NE SWELL.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
.THU NIGHT...NE WINDS LESS THAN 5 KT. SEAS 2 TO 4 FT IN NE
SWELL.
.FRI...N WINDS LESS THAN 5 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT IN NE SWELL.
.SAT...N WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT.
.SUN...NW TO N WINDS LESS THAN 5 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT IN NE SWELL.


$$

AMZ101-230945-
SYNOPSIS FOR THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS
505 PM EDT TUE MAY 22 2012

.SYNOPSIS...BROAD LOW PRES OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WILL SHIFT NE TO
THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS THROUGH EARLY FRI...TO 29N75W BY EARLY
SAT...AND N OF THE AREA BY EARLY SUN.

$$

AMZ111-230945-
ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N W OF 77W-
505 PM EDT TUE MAY 22 2012

.TONIGHT...S WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 4 TO 5 FT IN SE SWELL. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
.WED...S WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS 4 TO 5 FT IN SE SWELL. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
.WED NIGHT...SE TO S WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 4 TO 5 FT IN SE SWELL.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
.THU...E TO SE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 4 TO 5 FT IN SE SWELL.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
.THU NIGHT...N OF 29N W OF 79W...E TO SE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT.
ELSEWHERE...E TO SE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT...INCREASING TO 15 TO
20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4 TO 6 FT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS.
.FRI...NE WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 7 FT.
.SAT...NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT.
.SUN...E TO SE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 7 FT.

$$

AMZ113-230945-
ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W-
505 PM EDT TUE MAY 22 2012

.TONIGHT...S TO SW WINDS 5 TO 10 KT...INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KT
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4 TO 6 FT IN SE SWELL. SCATTERED SHOWERS.
.WED...S WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS 4 TO 5 FT IN SE SWELL. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
.WED NIGHT...SE TO S WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 4 TO 5 FT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS.
.THU...SE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 4 TO 6 FT IN SE SWELL. SCATTERED
SHOWERS.
.THU NIGHT...SE TO S WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 4 TO 6 FT IN SE SWELL.
SCATTERED SHOWERS.
.FRI...E TO SE WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 7 FT.
.SAT...E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 7 FT.
.SUN...E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 4 TO 6 FT.

$$

AMZ115-230945-
ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W-
505 PM EDT TUE MAY 22 2012

.TONIGHT...S TO SW WINDS 10 TO 15 KT...BECOMING S 5 TO 10 KT
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5 TO 7 FT IN E TO SE SWELL. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
.WED...S TO SW WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS 5 TO 6 FT IN E TO SE
SWELL. SCATTERED SHOWERS.
.WED NIGHT...SE WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS 4 TO 5 FT IN E TO SE
SWELL. SCATTERED SHOWERS.
.THU...E TO SE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 4 TO 5 FT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS.
.THU NIGHT...E TO SE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 4 TO 5 FT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS.
.FRI...E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT.
.SAT...NE TO E WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS 3 TO 4 FT SE SWELL.
.SUN...NE TO E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO 4 FT.

$$

AMZ117-230945-
BAHAMAS INCLUDING CAY SAL BANK-
505 PM EDT TUE MAY 22 2012

.TONIGHT...E TO SE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT...INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KT
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT...BECOMING 3 TO 5 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
.WED...SE WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT. SCATTERED SHOWERS.
.WED NIGHT...SE WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
.THU...SE WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND TSTMS.
.THU NIGHT...SE TO S WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
.FRI...SE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT IN E SWELL.
.SAT...NW TO N WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT.
.SUN...E TO SE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT E SWELL.

$$

AMZ119-230945-
ATLANTIC FROM 22N TO 27N E OF BAHAMAS TO 70W-
505 PM EDT TUE MAY 22 2012

.TONIGHT...E WINDS 5 TO 10 KT...BECOMING E TO SE 10 TO 15 KT
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4 TO 6 FT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
.WED...SE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 4 TO 6 FT. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND TSTMS.
.WED NIGHT...E TO SE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 5 TO 7 FT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
.THU...SE WINDS 15 TO 20 KT...DIMINISHING TO 10 TO 15 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 TO 7 FT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
.THU NIGHT...SE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT...INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KT
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5 TO 7 FT. SCATTERED SHOW
Quoting stormpetrol:
I can't take 2 more days of this, I've had enough! Why can't this just move to NE as fast it can :(

A quite similar set-up hung around over the southeast Carib Islands for a month......
Quoting LargoFl:
000
FZNT23 KNHC 222105
OFFNT3

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE SW AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC AND
CARIBBEAN SEA
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
505 PM EDT TUE MAY 22 2012

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO
22N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...THE SW N ATLANTIC S OF 31N W OF 65W
INCLUDING BAHAMAS...AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT...WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

AMZ001-230945-
SYNOPSIS FOR CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO
19N W OF 55W
505 PM EDT TUE MAY 22 2012

.SYNOPSIS...BROAD LOW PRES OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WILL LIFT NE
THROUGH THU. A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 50W S OF 13N WILL MOVE TO 55W
BY EARLY THU...60W BY EARLY FRI...AND INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
BY EARLY SAT. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER
MAINLY THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE WEEKEND
BETWEEN THE APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE AND HIGH PRES N OF THE
AREA.

$$

AMZ011-230945-
CARIBBEAN N OF 18N W OF 85W INCLUDING YUCATAN BASIN-
505 PM EDT TUE MAY 22 2012

.TONIGHT...N TO NE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 4 TO 5 FT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
.WED...N TO NE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT...BECOMING N 5 TO 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 TO 5 FT IN SE SWELL. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
.WED NIGHT...N TO NE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT...DIMINISHING TO 5 TO
10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4 TO 5 FT IN SE SWELL.
.THU...N TO NE WINDS LESS THAN 5 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT IN E TO SE
SWELL.
.THU NIGHT...E WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS 3 TO 4 FT IN SE SWELL.
.FRI...E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO 4 FT IN SE SWELL.
.SAT...E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 6 FT.
.SUN...E TO SE WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 6 FT.

$$

AMZ013-230945-
CARIBBEAN N OF 18N BETWEEN 76W AND 85W INCLUDING CAYMAN BASIN-
505 PM EDT TUE MAY 22 2012

.TONIGHT...SE WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 7 FT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
.WED...SE TO S WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 7 FT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
.WED NIGHT...SE TO S WINDS 10 TO 15 KT...INCREASING TO 15 TO
20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4 TO 6 FT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS.
.THU...S WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 6 FT. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND TSTMS.
.THU NIGHT...SE TO S WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 4 TO 6 FT IN E AND
SE SWELL. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
.FRI...E TO SE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 4 TO 6 FT IN E AND SE SWELL.
.SAT...NE TO E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 4 TO 6 FT IN E AND SE SWELL.
.SUN...E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT.

$$

AMZ015-230945-
CARIBBEAN APPROACHES TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE-
505 PM EDT TUE MAY 22 2012

.TONIGHT...E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
.WED...E TO SE WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 6 FT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
.WED NIGHT...E TO SE WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 6 FT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
.THU...E TO SE WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 6 FT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
.THU NIGHT...E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 4 TO 6 FT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
.FRI...NE TO E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT.
.SAT...NE WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS 2 TO 4 FT IN E SWELL.
.SUN...NE TO E WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT.

$$

AMZ017-230945-
GULF OF HONDURAS-
505 PM EDT TUE MAY 22 2012

.TONIGHT...N WINDS 10 TO 15 KT...BECOMING NW TO N 5 TO 10 KT
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT IN E SWELL. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS.
.WED...NW WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT IN E SWELL. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
.WED NIGHT...N WINDS 5 TO 10 KT...BECOMING E AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 2 TO 4 FT IN E SWELL.
.THU...W WINDS LESS THAN 5 KT...BECOMING N TO NE IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 TO 4 FT IN E AND SE SWELL.
.THU NIGHT...E WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
.FRI...E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT.
.SAT...E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 6 FT.
.SUN...E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 6 FT.

$$

AMZ019-230945-
CARIBBEAN FROM 15N TO 18N BETWEEN 80W AND 85W-
505 PM EDT TUE MAY 22 2012

.TONIGHT...SE TO S WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 4 TO 6 FT IN SE SWELL.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
.WED...S TO SW WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 4 TO 6 FT IN SE SWELL.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
.WED NIGHT...S WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS 4 TO 6 FT IN SE SWELL. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
.THU...SE TO S WINDS 5 TO 10 KT...INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KT IN
THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT IN SE SWELL. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS.
.THU NIGHT...E TO SE WINDS 5 TO 10 KT...BECOMING SE 10 TO 15 KT
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4 TO 6 FT IN SE SWELL. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS.
.FRI...E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 4 TO 6 FT IN E AND SE SWELL.
.SAT...E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 5 TO 7 FT IN E AND SE SWELL.
.SUN...E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 5 TO 7 FT IN E AND SE SWELL.

$$

AMZ021-230945-
CARIBBEAN FROM 15N TO 18N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W-
505 PM EDT TUE MAY 22 2012

.TONIGHT...E TO SE WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT IN E SWELL.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
.WED...E TO SE WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 8 FT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
.WED NIGHT...E TO SE WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 8 FT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
.THU...E TO SE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT...DIMINISHING TO 15 TO 20 KT IN
THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT IN E SWELL. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS.
.THU NIGHT...E TO SE WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 7 TO 9 FT IN E SWELL.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
.FRI...E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT IN E SWELL.
.SAT...NE TO E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 8 FT.
.SUN...E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 7 FT.

$$

AMZ023-230945-
CARIBBEAN N OF 15N BETWEEN 64W AND 72W-
505 PM EDT TUE MAY 22 2012

.TONIGHT...E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 8 FT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
.WED...E TO SE WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 8 FT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
.WED NIGHT...E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 8 FT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
.THU...E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 8 FT. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND TSTMS.
.THU NIGHT...E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 8 FT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
.FRI...NE TO E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 8 FT.
.SAT...E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 7 FT.
.SUN...E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 6 FT.

$$

AMZ025-230945-
OFFSHORE WATERS LEEWARD ISLANDS-
505 PM EDT TUE MAY 22 2012

.TONIGHT...E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 8 FT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS.
.WED...E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 8 FT. SCATTERED SHOWERS.
.WED NIGHT...E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 8 FT.
.THU...E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 7 FT. SCATTERED SHOWERS.
.THU NIGHT...E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 7 FT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS.
.FRI...NE TO E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 5 TO 7 FT.
.SAT...E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 4 TO 6 FT IN E SWELL.
.SUN...E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT IN E SWELL.

$$

AMZ027-230945-
TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 15N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 60W-
505 PM EDT TUE MAY 22 2012

.TONIGHT...E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 7 TO 9 FT IN NE SWELL.
.WED...E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 7 TO 8 FT.
.WED NIGHT...E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 7 TO 8 FT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS.
.THU...E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 8 FT. SCATTERED SHOWERS.
.THU NIGHT...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 6 TO 8 FT E SWELL. SCATTERED
SHOWERS.
.FRI...NE TO E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 6 TO 7 FT IN E SWELL.
.SAT...NE TO E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 5 TO 6 FT IN E SWELL.
.SUN...E WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS 4 TO 5 FT IN NE AND E SWELL.

$$

AMZ029-230945-
W CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N W OF 80W-
505 PM EDT TUE MAY 22 2012

.TONIGHT...E TO SE WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT IN E SWELL.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
.WED...SE WINDS LESS THAN 5 KT...BECOMING SE TO S IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT IN E SWELL. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
.WED NIGHT...E WINDS LESS THAN 5 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT IN NE TO E
SWELL.
.THU...SE WINDS LESS THAN 5 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT IN NE TO E SWELL.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
.THU NIGHT...E WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT IN NE TO E SWELL.
.FRI...NE TO E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT.
.SAT...NE TO E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 4 TO 6 FT IN NE TO E SWELL.
.SUN...NE TO E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 4 TO 6 FT IN NE TO E SWELL.

$$

AMZ031-230945-
CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA
BASIN-
505 PM EDT TUE MAY 22 2012

.TONIGHT...E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT IN E SWELL. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
.WED...E TO SE WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 8 FT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
.WED NIGHT...E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 8 FT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
.THU...E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT IN E SWELL.
.THU NIGHT...E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT IN E SWELL.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
.FRI...NE TO E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT IN E SWELL.
.SAT...NE TO E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 8 FT.
.SUN...NE TO E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 8 FT.

$$

AMZ033-230945-
CARIBBEAN S OF 15N BETWEEN 64W AND 72W INCLUDING VENEZUELA BASIN-
505 PM EDT TUE MAY 22 2012

.TONIGHT...E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 8 FT.
.WED...E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT...BECOMING E TO SE 15 TO 20 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 TO 8 FT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
.WED NIGHT...E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 8 FT.
.THU...E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT IN E SWELL. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
.THU NIGHT...E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT IN E SWELL. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
.FRI...E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 7 FT.
.SAT...E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 7 FT.
.SUN...E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 7 FT.

$$

AMZ035-230945-
OFFSHORE WATERS WINDWARD ISLANDS INCLUDING TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO-
505 PM EDT TUE MAY 22 2012

.TONIGHT...E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 7 FT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
.WED...E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 7 FT. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND TSTMS.
.WED NIGHT...E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 7 FT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
.THU...E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT...DIMINISHING TO 10 TO 15 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 TO 7 FT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
.THU NIGHT...E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT...DIMINISHING TO 10 TO 15 KT
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5 TO 7 FT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
.FRI...E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 4 TO 6 FT IN E SWELL.
.SAT...E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 4 TO 6 FT IN E SWELL.
.SUN...E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT.

$$

AMZ037-230945-
TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 15N BETWEEN 55W AND 60W-
505 PM EDT TUE MAY 22 2012

.TONIGHT...E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 7 TO 9 FT IN E SWELL. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
.WED...N OF 10N...E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. S OF 10N...E WINDS 10 TO
15 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT IN E SWELL. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
.WED NIGHT...E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 8 FT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
.THU...E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT...DIMINISHING TO 10 TO 15 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 TO 8 FT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
.THU NIGHT...E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 6 TO 8 FT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
.FRI...E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 6 TO 7 FT IN E SWELL.
.SAT...E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 5 TO 6 FT IN E SWELL.
.SUN...E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 5 TO 6 FT IN E SWELL.

$$

AMZ039-230945-
SW CARIBBEAN S OF 11N INCLUDING APPROACHES TO PANAMA CANAL-
505 PM EDT TUE MAY 22 2012

.TONIGHT...N WINDS LESS THAN 5 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT IN NE SWELL.
.WED...SW WINDS LESS THAN 5 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT IN NE SWELL.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
.WED NIGHT...NE WINDS LESS THAN 5 KT. SEAS 2 TO 4 FT IN NE
SWELL.
.THU...NE TO E WINDS LESS THAN 5 KT. SEAS 2 TO 4 FT IN NE SWELL.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
.THU NIGHT...NE WINDS LESS THAN 5 KT. SEAS 2 TO 4 FT IN NE
SWELL.
.FRI...N WINDS LESS THAN 5 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT IN NE SWELL.
.SAT...N WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT.
.SUN...NW TO N WINDS LESS THAN 5 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT IN NE SWELL.


$$

AMZ101-230945-
SYNOPSIS FOR THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS
505 PM EDT TUE MAY 22 2012

.SYNOPSIS...BROAD LOW PRES OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WILL SHIFT NE TO
THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS THROUGH EARLY FRI...TO 29N75W BY EARLY
SAT...AND N OF THE AREA BY EARLY SUN.

$$

AMZ111-230945-
ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N W OF 77W-
505 PM EDT TUE MAY 22 2012

.TONIGHT...S WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 4 TO 5 FT IN SE SWELL. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
.WED...S WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS 4 TO 5 FT IN SE SWELL. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
.WED NIGHT...SE TO S WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 4 TO 5 FT IN SE SWELL.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
.THU...E TO SE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 4 TO 5 FT IN SE SWELL.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
.THU NIGHT...N OF 29N W OF 79W...E TO SE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT.
ELSEWHERE...E TO SE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT...INCREASING TO 15 TO
20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4 TO 6 FT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS.
.FRI...NE WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 7 FT.
.SAT...NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT.
.SUN...E TO SE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 7 FT.

$$

AMZ113-230945-
ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W-
505 PM EDT TUE MAY 22 2012

.TONIGHT...S TO SW WINDS 5 TO 10 KT...INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KT
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4 TO 6 FT IN SE SWELL. SCATTERED SHOWERS.
.WED...S WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS 4 TO 5 FT IN SE SWELL. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
.WED NIGHT...SE TO S WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 4 TO 5 FT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS.
.THU...SE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 4 TO 6 FT IN SE SWELL. SCATTERED
SHOWERS.
.THU NIGHT...SE TO S WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 4 TO 6 FT IN SE SWELL.
SCATTERED SHOWERS.
.FRI...E TO SE WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 7 FT.
.SAT...E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 7 FT.
.SUN...E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 4 TO 6 FT.

$$

AMZ115-230945-
ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W-
505 PM EDT TUE MAY 22 2012

.TONIGHT...S TO SW WINDS 10 TO 15 KT...BECOMING S 5 TO 10 KT
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5 TO 7 FT IN E TO SE SWELL. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
.WED...S TO SW WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS 5 TO 6 FT IN E TO SE
SWELL. SCATTERED SHOWERS.
.WED NIGHT...SE WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS 4 TO 5 FT IN E TO SE
SWELL. SCATTERED SHOWERS.
.THU...E TO SE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 4 TO 5 FT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS.
.THU NIGHT...E TO SE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 4 TO 5 FT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS.
.FRI...E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT.
.SAT...NE TO E WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS 3 TO 4 FT SE SWELL.
.SUN...NE TO E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO 4 FT.

$$

AMZ117-230945-
BAHAMAS INCLUDING CAY SAL BANK-
505 PM EDT TUE MAY 22 2012

.TONIGHT...E TO SE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT...INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KT
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT...BECOMING 3 TO 5 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
.WED...SE WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT. SCATTERED SHOWERS.
.WED NIGHT...SE WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
.THU...SE WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND TSTMS.
.THU NIGHT...SE TO S WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
.FRI...SE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT IN E SWELL.
.SAT...NW TO N WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT.
.SUN...E TO SE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT E SWELL.

$$

AMZ119-230945-
ATLANTIC FROM 22N TO 27N E OF BAHAMAS TO 70W-
505 PM EDT TUE MAY 22 2012

.TONIGHT...E WINDS 5 TO 10 KT...BECOMING E TO SE 10 TO 15 KT
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4 TO 6 FT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
.WED...SE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 4 TO 6 FT. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND TSTMS.
.WED NIGHT...E TO SE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 5 TO 7 FT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
.THU...SE WINDS 15 TO 20 KT...DIMINISHING TO 10 TO 15 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 TO 7 FT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
.THU NIGHT...SE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT...INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KT
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5 TO 7 FT. SCATTERED SHOW


I want to see the new ones tomrrow
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

We all called this. Three weeks ago. This is the system the GFS was showing in the early portion of the month, with low pressure struggling to consolidate in the Atlantic and a tropical storm in the East Pacific.


As I mentioned earlier this is classic from the GFS, how many times have we seen it develop something in the long term, then drop it in the mid range and pick it back up before development?
AL, 94, 2012052300, , BEST, 0, 185N, 843W, 25, 1008, LO
Quoting Saltydogbwi1:
Wonder if/when they are ever going to get the Radar up and running here I thought it was supposed to be finished last year






Not until next year ... At least.

Link
The NHC obviously read the blog because as soon a we like begged it happened
Quoting pottery:

A quite similar set-up hung around over the southeast Carib Islands for a month......
Hey pottery. What's up?
Looks like Bud will still be 40 mph at 8 PM PDT.

23/0000 UTC 12.7N 105.4W T2.5/2.5 BUD -- East Pacific
Quoting weatherh98:
The NHC obviously read the blog because as soon a we like begged it happened

lol may they just listen to me cause I was saying it will when everyone is nope
Latest shear tendency and shear:





The wind barbs organization show upper level flow is a tinsy better.
To: LargoFl

BCC: wunderkidcayman

Please link long text like that, that took up nearly a whole page of blog. And seriously now, don't quote it.
Although EXTREMELY UNLIKELY and I don't tink it will happen,think how unprecedented it would be to have two storms in the atl and epac in the month of may!!!
Quoting ProgressivePulse:
To: LargoFl

BCC: wunderkidcayman

Please link long text like that, that took up nearly a whole page of blog. And seriously now, don't quote it.
yes i am sorry about that
Quoting nigel20:
Hey pottery. What's up?

Not much...
Scattered showers, and Hot.
Going to continue like this for a while......






Conditions are much more favorable than they were just yesterday!
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:

That's not really that broad at all...
Awesome news if they get it up and running for this hurricane seaon! next question is what data will be avail. to the public from it? It will be an awesome resourse for tracking developing systems in the NW carib as right now its a bit of a blind spot radar wise.

Just saw this looks like next year ;-(


Link
sorry I was thinking to shorten ing it to about half but I was too lazy but anyway sorry

Twister Offline
Twister is temporarily offline due to a firewall problem within the Department of Geography. We expect service to be restored by Tuesday May 22, 2012 and sincerely apologize for any inconvenience this outage has caused.

Updates
When is the next full batch of models for 94l
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
SHIPS does nothing with it.

25 26 28 29 29 27 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS

Apparently shear WON'T be lowering...

SHEAR (KT) 28 28 29 28 37 53 57 41 34 25 27 19 18



The low will be dancing a fine line with the Sub Tropical Jet until the high builds in above. As the STJ lifts north overnight, so will the shear. Ships may not recognize the sharp contrast between 60-70kts in the front yard and 10-20kts in the backyard.
« View county list

Special Weather Statement
FLZ033-230100-
ST. JOHNS-
816 PM EDT TUE MAY 22 2012

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR CENTRAL ST.
JOHNS COUNTY FOR STRONG WINDS AND SMALL HAIL VALID UNTIL 900 PM
EDT...

AT 816 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED OVER ELKTON...OR 5 MILES NORTHEAST OF
HASTINGS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH. THESE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND SPUDS...ELKTON...DUPONT CENTER...SAINT
AUGUSTINE SOUTH...SAINT AUGUSTINE SHORES...SAINT AUGUSTINE...BUTLER
BEACH...ANASTASIA AND SAINT AUGUSTINE BEACH THROUGH 900 PM EDT. HAIL
UP TO THREE QUARTER INCH IN DIAMETER AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH
CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

LAT...LON 2970 8149 2978 8151 2992 8128 2991 8127
2988 8126 2977 8124 2975 8124
TIME...MOT...LOC 0016Z 242DEG 30KT 2977 8143

$$
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

That's not really that broad at all...


It's just elongated a fairly weak
Quoting Saltydogbwi1:
Wonder if/when they are ever going to get the Radar up and running here I thought it was supposed to be finished last year




This was actually in today's Compass.

With the arrival of Cayman’s early warning weather radar set for July 2012, it is not clear yet how much the Cayman Islands government will spend on the long-awaited Doppler system.

The government is expected to award the contract to construct the tower for radar system this month, and has announced that two German companies will install the digital radar itself and give technical assistance for the duration of the project. It also has an agreement with a regional meteorological body to provide various services before and after the radar is installed.

“It is anticipated that the construction tender will be awarded in December and the tower should be completed by July next year, to coincide with the radar’s arrival. The final phase will be the set-up of equipment within the building and staff training,” Cayman Islands Airports Authority Chief Executive Officer Jeremy Jackson said in a news release.


Looks like a track generally towards south Florida for 94L
Quoting sunlinepr:

Not too sure what Bud's problem is... He looks like a mid-strength TS but the winds just aren't there.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

Not too sure what Bud's problem is... He looks like a mid-strength TS but the winds just aren't there.



he has lots of wind shear overe him right now
I say 94L is really at 17.0N 84.3W moving ENE-NE

also the LLCOC is now getting covered with convection just N of NE honduras and shear is falling aroun 10-15kt and pressures are rising here in cayman as the convection in the area decraeases and the LLC weakens as shear in the W cuba Isle of youth area are running at 30-50kt
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Looks like a track generally towards south Florida for 94L


generally, You know how all canes hit florida.... Lotta moisture though



Nice spin though, shows promise yet
so Im guessing the buildings already built? very confusing..


Link


Quoting stormwatcherCI:
This was actually in today's Compass.

With the arrival of Cayman%u2019s early warning weather radar set for July 2012, it is not clear yet how much the Cayman Islands government will spend on the long-awaited Doppler system.

The government is expected to award the contract to construct the tower for radar system this month, and has announced that two German companies will install the digital radar itself and give technical assistance for the duration of the project. It also has an agreement with a regional meteorological body to provide various services before and after the radar is installed.

%u201CIt is anticipated that the construction tender will be awarded in December and the tower should be completed by July next year, to coincide with the radar%u2019s arrival. The final phase will be the set-up of equipment within the building and staff training,%u201D Cayman Islands Airports Authority Chief Executive Officer Jeremy Jackson said in a news release.


Most likely 94L won't do much until the high builds in above and gets shoved back west. "IF" that is what indeed ends up happening.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
This is so helpful:



Looks like somewhere between Texas and Bermuda... What great model agreement!
Sarcasm Flag (ON)
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:

throw it out the door
Quoting Tazmanian:



he has lots of wind shear overe him right now

I guess so... It's just weird that he looks good but in reality he's actually pretty weak.

Quoting WxGeekVA:


Looks like somewhere between Texas and Bermuda... What great model agreement!
Sarcasm Flag (ON)

Lol! I edited the comment because I saw the map had already been posted but you're right... Very useful model run by the BAM series
94L data..........Link
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Looks like a track generally towards south Florida for 94L

No, two tracks to TX (one via bragging rights detour to FL) and one to the fish.

This is a TX storm. FL doesn't need the rain, anyway :)
574. xcool
I wouldn't be suprised Possible tropical development in the future
Quoting WxGeekVA:


Looks like somewhere between Texas and Bermuda... What great model agreement!
Sarcasm Flag (ON)

They just do that so that EVERYONE can have a good time .....

:):))
Meanwhile, in Kansas: A marriage with tornadoes as a backdrop took place

Quoting wunderkidcayman:

lol may they just listen to me cause I was saying it will when everyone is nope
Good job Wunderkid you have been all over the development of this little bugger.
Quoting xcool:
I wouldn't be suprised Possible tropical development in the future


Id also expect that i will eat in the future too
Just remeber: 94L hasn't "developed" yet... Being an invest just means it is an area that can be researched and have model runs conducted on... We always remeber the TS's (at least in post season analysis) but the invests are always forgotten as they really don't mean that much.
really , ATCF keeps Bud at 40 mph for the 11 PM advisory....

this storm is borriER than Katia.... gosh!
COC is the right red blob. Seems to be gaining back some ground tonight as the right blob and left blob appear to be coming together again. You can see them reaching out to each other in the image.

582. xcool
haha

It doesn't look like a 40 mph storm
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
really , ATCF keeps Bud at 40 mph for the 11 PM advisory....

this storm is borriER than Katia.... gosh!

Lol... I don't care how much of a fish storm it is- A storm like this is NOT boring :)

Quoting GTcooliebai:
Good job Wunderkid you have been all over the development of this little bugger.

thank you I told you guys it will happen and a whole load of you did not agree well do you agree now when will 94L be I say NOW
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

Lol... I don't care how much of a fish storm it is- A storm like this is NOT boring :)



yeah..... i ment it take sooooooooo long to get it together..
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Just remeber: 94L hasn't "developed" yet... Being an invest just means it is an area that can be researched and have model runs conducted on... We always remeber the TS's (at least in post season analysis) but the invests are always forgotten as they really don't mean that much.
yes something to watch the next few days
I see 94L is up and much further N than the feature near Roatan which is what I was surmising earlier.

590. xcool
WHXX01 KWBC 230019
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0019 UTC WED MAY 23 2012

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL942012) 20120523 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
120523 0000 120523 1200 120524 0000 120524 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 18.5N 84.3W 19.5N 84.4W 20.4N 84.3W 21.7N 84.5W
BAMD 18.5N 84.3W 20.5N 82.0W 23.4N 79.6W 27.2N 76.9W
BAMM 18.5N 84.3W 20.1N 83.4W 22.0N 82.5W 24.3N 81.9W
LBAR 18.5N 84.3W 19.9N 83.3W 22.4N 82.3W 25.5N 81.0W
SHIP 25KTS 28KTS 29KTS 27KTS
DSHP 25KTS 28KTS 29KTS 27KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
120525 0000 120526 0000 120527 0000 120528 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 23.1N 84.2W 24.8N 85.3W 25.1N 89.4W 26.4N 94.2W
BAMD 31.1N 73.4W 34.5N 63.6W 32.8N 58.2W 29.4N 54.2W
BAMM 26.8N 81.4W 28.0N 81.1W 26.4N 83.8W 25.4N 87.9W
LBAR 28.9N 79.0W 33.1N 70.9W 32.1N 64.8W 27.8N 64.2W
SHIP 22KTS 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS
DSHP 24KTS 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 18.5N LONCUR = 84.3W DIRCUR = 30DEG SPDCUR = 4KT
LATM12 = 18.0N LONM12 = 84.9W DIRM12 = 77DEG SPDM12 = 4KT
LATM24 = 18.0N LONM24 = 86.0W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 130NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 275NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
Quoting kmanislander:
I see 94L is up and much further N than the feature near Roatan which is what I was surmising earlier.


I think it will change
Quoting kmanislander:
I see 94L is up and much further N than the feature near Roatan which is what I was surmising earlier.



Well



It's right where I put it earlier.
Well thats it for me,have a good night everyone!
I know this is off-topic, but it's really important that I find this out and I can't seem to find anything about it on the internet.

Does anybody know any people Steve Jobs looked up to (besides Mark Zuckerberg?).
595. txjac
Quoting WxGeekVA:


Well



It's right where I put it earlier.


So ...does it kind of follow the trough?
596. txjac
Quoting LargoFl:
Well thats it for me,have a good night everyone!


You too Largo
the low near honduras is strengthening and the low near cuba is weakening
..dont forget to punch out on time and to grab a weekly wu-flyer too!..

: )
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Just remeber: 94L hasn't "developed" yet... Being an invest just means it is an area that can be researched and have model runs conducted on... We always remeber the TS's (at least in post season analysis) but the invests are always forgotten as they really don't mean that much.
If I had a nickle for every "L" this blog pumped over the last 7 years........
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #11
TROPICAL STORM SANVU (T1202)
9:00 AM JST May 23 2012
=================================

SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon Near Marianas

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Sanvu (998 hPa) located at 15.7N 141.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 60 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northwest at 10 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Gale Force Winds
================
130 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=========================

24 HRS: 18.0N 139.7E - 50 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm)
48 HRS: 20.4N 139.6E - 55 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm)
72 HRS: 22.7N 140.8E - 55 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm)

Additional Information
=======================

Tropical storm will decelerate for the next 24 hours
:It will recurve within 48 hours
:It will move north northwest for the next 48 hours then move north northeast

Tropical Storm will be upgraded to severe tropical storm within 24 hours

Tropical storm will develop because cyclone will stay in high sea surface temperature area

Final Dvorak intensity will be 3.0 after 24 hours
601. txjac
Quoting CosmicEvents:
If I had a nickle for every "L" this blog pumped over the last 7 years........


You'd be retired! lol
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
the low near honduras is strengthening and the low near cuba is weakening

That is contradicting post 592.
Which Low is doing what ????
Quoting txjac:


So ...does it kind of follow the trough?


That's where I think it will track, yes. Then it'll back towards Florida and into the GOM and then into the gulf coast. Probably just a weak TS though
Quoting WxGeekVA:


Well



It's right where I put it earlier.


Did not see that but it makes sense, especially when you look at the barometric readings in this area from earlier on which is what I posted about 3 hours ago.

Of course, don't forget that with sheared systems the area of lowest pressure can jump around and I suspect that is what happened here
605. txjac
Quoting WxGeekVA:


That's where I think it will track, yes. Then it'll back towards Florida and into the GOM and then into the gulf coast. Probably just a weak TS though


Interesting thought ...gonna be fun to watch
Quoting kmanislander:
I see 94L is up and much further N than the feature near Roatan which is what I was surmising earlier.


it should have been at 17N where the roatan low is now right now it is located at 17N 84.3W
Quoting CosmicEvents:
If I had a nickle for every "L" this blog pumped over the last 7 years........


Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
really , ATCF keeps Bud at 40 mph for the 11 PM advisory....

this storm is borriER than Katia.... gosh!

I've been dying to say this: Bud is a dud.
Quoting pottery:

That is contradicting post 592.
Which Low is doing what ????

WxGeekVA has the right idea.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

WxGeekVA has the right idea.

Thanks.
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

it should have been at 17N where the roatan low is now right now it is located at 17N 84.3W


The low is very broad at this time. There is no true center so to speak so a difference of a degree does not matter.
Good night Bud.

Night everyone.

I leave you with the remains of Alberto

Quoting Chicklit:

I've been dying to say this: Bud is a dud.


yes!!!! fits in perfectly
Quoting kmanislander:


Did not see that but it makes sense, especially when you look at the barometric readings in this area from earlier on which is what I posted about 3 hours ago.

Of course, don't forget that with sheared systems the area of lowest pressure can jump around and I suspect that is what happened here

pressure here and in the area are rising
pressures near Honduras are either steady or falling
plus the honduras low is getting a lot less shear that the cuba low so I suspect that by moring pressures should jump around again too the honduras low also we convection that is now increasing with the honduras low as well
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


yes!!!! fits in perfectly
it does but lets give it a bit
I posted this earlier but has since updated, still showing the same thing however. This map frames the low very well and the broad nature of it. The smaller scale cyclones, and there are a few in the last look at visible, are all part of the large and broad low.

Quoting pottery:

That is contradicting post 592.
Which Low is doing what ????

right
low in honduras
getting stronger
getting more convection
getting less shear in the range of 10-20kt
stronger circulation
slowly lowering pressures

low in cuba
getting weaker
convection is getting weaker
it is getting a lot more shear about 10-30kt more
circulationg looking weaker
pressures are slowly riseing

ok you get it yet
may bring a side winder
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

pressure here and in the area are rising
pressures near Honduras are either steady or falling
plus the honduras low is getting a lot less shear that the cuba low so I suspect that by moring pressures should jump around again too the honduras low also we convection that is now increasing with the honduras low as well


Roatan pressure is 1010 mbs. Our pressure right now is 1009.3. This disturbance is really nothing to get worked up over.
Quoting ProgressivePulse:
I posted this earlier but has since updated, still showing the same thing however. This map frames the low very well and the broad nature of it. The smaller scale cyclones, and there are a few in the last look at visible, are all part of the large and broad low.



Exactly
Quoting kmanislander:


The low is very broad at this time. There is no true center so to speak so a difference of a degree does not matter.


pre-disturb area of convective activity
Wow, I leave for a short while and apparently word has spread about 94L because the comments have added 3 new pages.

What is the general consensus here, or is there one, on 94L?
Wow, the heavens just opened up !. Raining cats, dogs and many other animals right now !!
Quoting kmanislander:
Wow, the heavens just opened up !. Raining cats, dogs and many other animals right now !!



oh my lol
The Cuba low should become dominant. The Roaton low is weakening and being absorbed by the other one.
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

pressure here and in the area are rising
pressures near Honduras are either steady or falling
plus the honduras low is getting a lot less shear that the cuba low so I suspect that by moring pressures should jump around again too the honduras low also we convection that is now increasing with the honduras low as well
Dear Wunderkid when they start the model run they put all that information in it then the model decides where it will put the low as you can see they put the low even higher then it is on the preeure map. The USA decided to invest it because this trough is forcast to give the USA a lot of rain and they want to be prepared not because its going to develope in the next 3 days.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I know this is off-topic, but it's really important that I find this out and I can't seem to find anything about it on the internet.

Does anybody know any people Steve Jobs looked up to (besides Mark Zuckerberg?).


I tried answers.com (backup for all projects) and the question went unasnwered. Hope this isnt due tomorrow, Im big on procastinating though im not gonna lie
AL942012 - INVEST


Enhanced Infrared (IR) Imagery (4 km Mercator)





It's not really JX, but St. Simons Island that is under the gun right now:
The National Weather Service in Jacksonville has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
southeastern Brantley County in southeast Georgia
northwestern Camden County in southeast Georgia
Glynn County in southeast Georgia

* until 1015 PM EDT

* at 924 PM EDT... National Weather Service meteorologists were tracking a severe thunderstorm capable of producing quarter size hail... and damaging winds in excess of 60 mph. This storm was located 6 miles west of Waverly... or 11 miles southeast of Nahunta... and moving northeast at 40 mph.

* Other locations in the warning include but are not limited to Waverly... Waynesville... Thalmann... Dock Junction... Brunswick... Country Club Estates... St. Simons and Sea Island.
Quoting cg2916:
Wow, I leave for a short while and apparently word has spread about 94L because the comments have added 3 new pages.

What is the general consensus here, or is there one, on 94L?
Only a few model runs have come out the BAMS, BAMM, & BAMD.
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Only a few model runs have come out the BAMS, BAMM, & BAMD.


I was talking more about the blog.
Quoting kmanislander:


Roatan pressure is 1010 mbs. Our pressure right now is 1009.3. This disturbance is really nothing to get worked up over.

roatans pressure is rising which is expected as it is moving E-ENE its closer to Puerto Lempira which shows 1009mb as well

but anyway lets watch it overnight and lets seen what the obs show and the conditions ater that
side note can't wait to see what happens when D-Max arrives in the morning
Quoting cg2916:


I was talking more about the blog.




LOL
94L/INV/XX
MARK
17.13N/82.64W
94L is very unimpressive and in some very unfavorable conditions...

Doubt much comes out of it.

Might not even see a STWO
Quoting cg2916:


I was talking more about the blog.

Do you really expect there to be? lol.
94L?.Hmmm.Wunderkidcayman is going to be busy in the blog..
Quoting Patrap:
AL942012 - INVEST


Enhanced Infrared (IR) Imagery (4 km Mercator)







You know you want to dust off that Yukon Cornelius pic, lol.
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

roatans pressure is rising which is expected as it is moving E-ENE its closer to Puerto Lempira which shows 1009mb as well

but anyway lets watch it overnight and lets seen what the obs show and the conditions ater that
side note can't wait to see what happens when D-Max arrives in the morning


In post 616 you said pressure near Roatan is steady or falling. Now you say it is rising and that is to be expected ??.

You need to calm down :-)
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
94L is very unimpressive and in some very unfavorable conditions...

Doubt much comes out of it.

Might not even see a STWO

Might have a chance off the Southeast coastline in a few days as depicted by the GFS and ECMWF. I just don't see it organizing any further while in the Caribbean in face of 20-40 knots of wind shear though.
Quoting WxGeekVA:
The Cuba low should become dominant. The Roaton low is weakening and being absorbed by the other one.

really don't see that happening sorry we will just have to wait till moring and see what happens
Ok people do you think 94L will further develop?
A: yes
B: NO
Quoting cg2916:
Wow, I leave for a short while and apparently word has spread about 94L because the comments have added 3 new pages.

What is the general consensus here, or is there one, on 94L?


To make it short it looks sucky and broad.

There are two "lows" trying to fight for it (LOL)

Convection is all scatter brained et cetera
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Might have a chance off the Southeast coastline in a few days as depicted by the GFS and ECMWF. I just don't see it organizing any further while in the Caribbean in face of 20-40 knots of wind shear though.


I agree. In the Caribbean, it doesn't have much of a chance. If it can make it across the Greater Antilles and the subtropical jet stream, it will have a much better shot at developing. Still though, it's got a lot of checkpoints to pass.
It's not really JX, but St. Simons Island that is under the gun right now:
The National Weather Service in Jacksonville has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
southeastern Brantley County in southeast Georgia
northwestern Camden County in southeast Georgia
Glynn County in southeast Georgia

* until 1015 PM EDT

* at 924 PM EDT... National Weather Service meteorologists were tracking a severe thunderstorm capable of producing quarter size hail... and damaging winds in excess of 60 mph. This storm was located 6 miles west of Waverly... or 11 miles southeast of Nahunta... and moving northeast at 40 mph.

* Other locations in the warning include but are not limited to Waverly... Waynesville... Thalmann... Dock Junction... Brunswick... Country Club Estates... St. Simons and Sea Island.
Quoting cg2916:


I was talking more about the blog.
gonna rain maybe a little wind too
Quoting allancalderini:
Ok people do you think 94L will further develop?
A: yes
B: NO

A.

Not in the Caribbean though.
94L is her.
94 L looks like someone took a train and ran over a cane.
I keep hearing that 94L has a good chance of forming.
I keep hearing that 94L has a good chance of dying.
What is it?
Quoting kmanislander:


In post 616 you said pressure near Roatan is steady or falling. Now you say it is rising and that is to be expected ??.

You need to calm down :-)

Really I thought I said that with the roatan low (by the way I said roatan as a general locating not as a precise location) pressures around the area was either steady or falling roatan at the time was steady but now rising and I am calm so calm that I am practically lying on my bed sleeping
Quoting PurpleDrank:
94L is her.

no it is an it until if/when gets named
Quoting allancalderini:
Ok people do you think 94L will further develop?
A: yes
B: NO


A but it will look like fay in general as it moves toward florida, Ik generation points are different and al but same concept

It is rather impressive that were already at 94L in the pre-season though...

Quoting JrWeathermanFL:
I keep hearing that 94L has a good chance of forming.
I keep hearing that 94L has a good chance of dying.
What is it?
they all form to die
I'm not sure why the NHC had tagged this in the caribbean except the southeast U.S coast where it has a better chance...OH SHOOT!!!.I forgot it was still the off season...feels more like late June...This season is going to be hella interesting though..hopefully..
Quoting JrWeathermanFL:
I keep hearing that 94L has a good chance of forming.
I keep hearing that 94L has a good chance of dying.
What is it?


Probably time to discuss 95L perhaps?
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

Really I thought I said that with the roatan low (by the way I said roatan as a general locating not as a precise location) pressures around the area was either steady or falling roatan at the time was steady but now rising and I am calm so calm that I am practically lying on my bed sleeping


Good stuff LOL.

94L is just a warm up for the season. This early on conditions are just too marginal in the Caribbean for a system to really organise. Another 10 to 15 days should change that. With neutral conditions forecasted to last through summer there may be many late nights on the blog.
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
It is rather impressive that were already at 94L in the pre-season though...






sure is do you re call where we where last year at this time
Quoting kmanislander:


Good stuff LOL.

94L is just a warm up for the season. This early on conditions are just too marginal in the Caribbean for a system to really organise. Another 10 to 15 days should change that. With neutral conditions forecasted to last through summer there may be many late nights on the blog.


yep
gotta go slow
if you want to last
till the end and beyond
it is what it is
and what its yet to become
by the way when will the OSCAT and ASCAT make the assending passes
You all have a great evening. I will be checking in tomorrow.
The past two or three years I've run off a copy of the atlantic basin map the NHC has. In previous years I've taped many sheets of paper together to produce the mosaic but this year I have access to a 36 inch plotter. While I'm going to miss the huge, 5'x7' map I had the first year I did this, it'll be a lot easier to put up and store. (Had to get rid of the first two.)

It's been that time of year for a bit now, but I do think it's time to print off my yearly "big board." I look forward to getting to use a second pen color this early in the season.

So with Alberto out of the way in comes 94L, whether or not it does anything is still up in the air obviously, but the southeast sure could use the rain of a tropical storm.
Quoting kmanislander:


Good stuff LOL.

94L is just a warm up for the season. This early on conditions are just too marginal in the Caribbean for a system to really organise. Another 10 to 15 days should change that. With neutral conditions forecasted to last through summer there may be many late nights on the blog.
I'm hoping El nino forms in late October..Will that be called wish casting??
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


yep
gotta go slow
if you want to last
till the end and beyond
it is what it is
and what its yet to become


Hi Keep. So true. The season is a marathon, not a sprint.
Broad low

This is only May what will the season be like?
Quoting Tazmanian:





sure is do you re call where we where last year at this time


Hello, Taz... Hope you are doing well. It's that time of year again.
Quoting washingtonian115:
I'm hoping El nino forms in late October..Will that be called wish casting??


You don't want that to happen because we would then have neutral conditions for the entire season and that would be bad :-(
hey guys re call the last neutral conditions we had back in 2005??? that year we had 28 name storms


and so far we had 1 name storm and its olny may
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
It is rather impressive that were already at 94L in the pre-season though...



That is right. I dont remember the North Atlantic being at 94L on this date.Is ahead of EPAC too by 2.
Quoting kmanislander:


Good stuff LOL.

94L is just a warm up for the season. This early on conditions are just too marginal in the Caribbean for a system to really organise. Another 10 to 15 days should change that. With neutral conditions forecasted to last through summer there may be many late nights on the blog.


Yeah, nothing's going on in the Caribbean for a little while.

Whether or not it can spin up east of FL will be interesting. It will probably, however, get roughed around by the subtropical stream (depending on the timing) and the Antilles.
Quoting palmpt:


Hello, Taz... Hope you are doing well. It's that time of year again.



yep
Make sure your F5 key is working could be a long season!!!!! LOL
I'm out. Gnite all :-)
been seven years since 2005 happened
goodnight friend
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
been seven years since 2005 happened

Honestly, Ike was probably a major hurricane at landfall. I'm pretty sure 1-minute sustained winds probably made it 1 mph before landfall on the Texas coastline. ;)

We got mighty lucky with Hurricane Irene. Had it not started an Eyewall Replacement Cycle without finishing it, we would have probably been dealing with a Category 3 hurricane landfall on the Outer Banks of North Carolina.
Quoting kmanislander:


You don't want that to happen because we would then have neutral conditions for the entire season and that would be bad :-(
Was the 2011 hurricane season neutral?.If so we saw a below number of threats that season to the U.S coast with the exception of Irene and Lee.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Honestly, Ike was probably a major hurricane at landfall. I'm pretty sure 1-minute sustained winds probably made it 1 mph before landfall on the Texas coastline. ;)

We got mighty lucky with Hurricane Irene. Had it not started an Eyewall Replacement Cycle without finishing it, we would have probably been dealing with a Category 3 hurricane landfall on the Outer Banks of North Carolina.
yep new york got lucky too but maybe the luck has run out
689. etxwx
Quoting weatherh98:


I tried answers.com (backup for all projects) and the question went unasnwered. Hope this isnt due tomorrow, Im big on procastinating though im not gonna lie


If TA13 is still around, I found this Steve Jobs' heroes
Quoting washingtonian115:
Was the 2011 hurricane season neutral?.If so we saw a below number of threats that season to the U.S coast with the exception of Irene and Lee.
Was a La Niña I think.
691. j2008
Quoting washingtonian115:
Was the 2011 hurricane season neutral?.If so we saw a below number of threats that season to the U.S coast with the exception of Irene and Lee.
No, it was supposed to be but in the end it turned out to be La Nina.
Quoting washingtonian115:
Was the 2011 hurricane season neutral?.If so we saw a below number of threats that season to the U.S coast with the exception of Irene and Lee.
it was a nina now neutral going to nino
Quoting washingtonian115:
Was the 2011 hurricane season neutral?.If so we saw a below number of threats that season to the U.S coast with the exception of Irene and Lee.

2011 had La Nia conditions from DJF (December {2010}-January-February) to MAM (March-April-May, Neutral conditions from AMJ (April-May-June) to JAS (July-August-September), and then back to La Nia conditions from ASO (August-September-October) through the end of the year.
Quoting etxwx:


If TA13 is still around, I found this Steve Jobs' heroes

Thanks!
I love quick flare up storms like Alberto and 94L, they come and go...and usually are more of a curiosity then anything. Anyways, does 94L not remind you of TD-1 of 1990.


Thanks post 690,691,692,and 693.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
it was a nina now neutral going to nino
but it may not be nino till it won't matter but we will get a snowy winter
How does the Caribbean system not even have a "near 0" percent? It looks quite typical of how early season storms form.
Carnival Magic

Last reported at 2012-May-22 18:00 UTC. Time now 2012-May-23 02:22 UTC.
Position N 19°06' W 086°06'.

Wind from 360 at 15 knots

Barometer 1008.0 mb
Air temperature 30.1 ° C
Dewpoint 20.0 ° C
Water temperature 28.5 ° C
Quoting winter123:
How does the Caribbean system not even have a "near 0" percent? It looks quite typical of how early season storms form.




be come norml updates on the out look dos not start in tell june 1st
Quoting washingtonian115:
Was the 2011 hurricane season neutral?.If so we saw a below number of threats that season to the U.S coast with the exception of Irene and Lee.


Here's a relatively complete table:

Oceanic Ni~no Index by month.

EDIT:

2005 went from a weak El Nino to a neutral phase.
2008 was from La Nina to a neutral phase.
2012 appears to be a La Nina to a neutral phase as well.
94L is now confirmed
I can now see the LLC of the Cuba low now very much exposed and looks to be very weak on it NE side movement off to the W now located at 20N 85W at a decent speed running into some 55-65kt shear

I see the honduras low not too well cause it is covered with building convection but still has a goo circulation on all sides movement off to E-ENE at a slower speed that the cuba low located at around located at 17.1N 84.0W running into some lower 10-15kt shear

lets watch it and see what happens
It honestly feels like the end of June as opposed to the end of May.

Maybe we'll get our first hurricane next month? I wouldn't doubt it with the way conditions are setting up.
Quoting StormTracker2K:
94L is now confirmed

late
Quoting Tazmanian:




be come norml updates on the out look dos not start in tell june 1st
taz they don't get it
Does anyone know what in the world would have caused this echo on the radar?
It's been a long time since a major has graced the Peninsula and the Gulf. Not that many hurricanes either since 2005. Past several years have featured re-curves for the most part. The card is going to come up sooner or later.
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
I can now see the LLC of the Cuba low now very much exposed and looks to be very weak on it NE side movement off to the W now located at 20N 85W at a decent speed running into some 55-65kt shear

I see the honduras low not too well cause it is covered with building convection but still has a goo circulation on all sides movement off to E-ENE at a slower speed that the cuba low running into some 10-15kt shear

lets watch it and see what happens

How can you see an exposed low level circulation when the sun went down several hours ago?
710. etxwx
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Thanks!

You are very welcome...I appreciate all the weather info you share. :-)
taz

T-8DAYS
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
It honestly feels like the end of June as opposed to the end of May.

Maybe we'll get our first hurricane next month? I wouldn't doubt it with the way conditions are setting up.




hi


what are conditions set up to be this year all so what is the high set up do we have this year
Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
Does anyone know what in the world would have caused this echo on the radar?





In all seriousness probably either a radar glitch or some military chaff dropped in a training exercise.
Quoting ProgressivePulse:
It's been a long time since a major has graced the Peninsula and the Gulf. Not that many hurricanes either since 2005. Past several years have featured re-curves for the most part. The card is going to come up sooner or later.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

How can you see an exposed low level circulation when the sun went down several hours ago?

shortwave IR it work you should give it a try one day
Still can't believe that the last Major CONUS landfall was Wilma six and a half years ago...

That was one hell of a storm here.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

The worst pattern for the western Atlantic.This season might not be all that active but it sure as hell is gonna give us some scary threats if that pattern holds :(.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
taz

T-8DAYS
I thin k people forgot to countdown especially with the early formation that we've had.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
It honestly feels like the end of June as opposed to the end of May.

Maybe we'll get our first hurricane next month? I wouldn't doubt it with the way conditions are setting up.


It might feel like it with all of the disturbances, but it definitely isn't, or else 94L would not be feeling wind shear from the subtropical jetstream. The jet is still very much as far south as it is supposed to be in May.

Conditions in the Atlantic are pretty marginal overall, and don't forget that although this year favors in-close developments, which is more dangerous, it also means each storm has less of a chance to become a hurricane. It is harder. 1985 is the glaring exception to this rule, as it was the worst hurricane landfalling season in U.S. history, yet all storms developed very close to land.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
It honestly feels like the end of June as opposed to the end of May.

Maybe we'll get our first hurricane next month? I wouldn't doubt it with the way conditions are setting up.

I am wondering the same thing
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


That is right. I dont remember the North Atlantic being at 94L on this date.Is ahead of EPAC too by 2.

we were at 94L around this time last season.
I expect to at least see some caribbean trackers like Gustav and Charley for an example.

post 722.No we weren't at 93L until June so yeah..
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:



That map is not really relevant at the moment. Sure you can get an idea however, it changes weekly. Surely the high will be displaced with the ULL and Alberto still clearing the area, check again this weekend. The lower US coast line needs to pay attention to the high pressure in the NE that keeps coming back. 2004 featured a lot of troughs that pulled the storms up but also feature a lot of east coast ridging that sent them back to the coast. Just my 2C
i hop this year is not all TS
000
WTPZ32 KNHC 230235
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BUD ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022012
800 PM PDT TUE MAY 22 2012

...BUD NOT STRENGTHENING...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.9N 105.9W
ABOUT 440 MI...705 KM SW OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
ABOUT 435 MI...700 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BUD WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.9 WEST. BUD IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H. THIS GENERAL
MOTION WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
12 TO 24 HOURS. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND THEN THE NORTHEAST
WITH A FURTHER DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
Quoting ProgressivePulse:
It's been a long time since a major has graced the Peninsula and the Gulf. Not that many hurricanes either since 2005. Past several years have featured re-curves for the most part. The card is going to come up sooner or later.


Better to include the 500+MB level for steering. Surface layer steering is only relevant for a short time period, assuming a strengthening storm.
NHC doesn't see a hurricane now for Bud.


TROPICAL STORM BUD DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022012
800 PM PDT TUE MAY 22 2012

THERE HAS BEEN A BURST OF CONVECTION NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF
BUD DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...A 2243 UTC TRMM OVERPASS
SUGGESTED THAT THE CENTER IS LOCATED ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE NEW
CONVECTIVE GROWTH. THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN OF THE CYCLONE HAS NOT
CHANGED MUCH SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...NOR HAVE SATELLITE
CLASSIFICATIONS WHICH ARE AT T2.5 FROM TAFB AND SAB. BASED ON THE
LACK OF CHANGE SINCE THAT TIME...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT
35 KT.

IT REMAINS A BIT PUZZLING AS TO WHY BUD HAS NOT STRENGTHENED SINCE
CURRENT SHEAR ANALYSES CONTINUE TO INDICATE LESS SOUTHEASTERLY
SHEAR OVER BUD THAN WHAT THE CURRENT CLOUD PATTERN WOULD SUGGEST.
EVEN THOUGH THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD BE TRAVERSING WARM WATERS
AND ENCOUNTERING EVEN LOWER VERTICAL SHEAR DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO...THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWS LITTLE STRENGTHENING. AS BUD
APPROACHES SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO IN 2-3 DAYS...INCREASING SOUTHERLY
TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND A DEEP LAYER OF DRY AIR IMPINGING
ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION SHOULD RESULT IN WEAKENING.
LARGE-SCALE MODELS INDICATE A DECOUPLING OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL
FLOW FROM THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD WHICH
COULD RESULT IN AN EVEN FASTER RATE OF WEAKENING AT THAT TIME. THE
OFFICIAL NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS REDUCED RELATIVE TO THE PREVIOUS
ONE AND NO LONGER CALLS FOR BUD TO BECOME A HURRICANE. THE NEW
FORECAST REMAINS ABOVE THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE AT NEARLY ALL
TIMES.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 315/12. BUD SHOULD MOVE GENERALLY
NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA. IN
24-48 HOURS...GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE CYCLONE SLOWING DOWN AND
TURNING NORTHWARD AS IT ENCOUNTERS A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE ALONG
107W AND EVENTUALLY NORTHEASTWARD AS IT FEELS THE INFLUENCE OF
A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH FORECAST TO AMPLIFY OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AS BUD
APPROACHES THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO IN 72-120 HOURS...THE
CYCLONE SHOULD COME TO A HALT AND TURN SOUTHWESTWARD AS A
PRESUMABLY WEAKER AND INCREASINGLY SHALLOWER SYSTEM BECOMES
EMBEDDED IN NORTHERLY LOW- TO MID-LEVEL AROUND A RIDGE TO ITS WEST.
THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE BUT IS NOW ON
THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE THROUGH 72 HOURS AND
REPRESENTS A BLEND OF THE ECMWF/GFS MODELS ON DAYS 4 AND 5.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/0300Z 12.9N 105.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 23/1200Z 13.7N 106.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 24/0000Z 14.5N 107.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 24/1200Z 15.4N 107.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 25/0000Z 16.5N 106.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 26/0000Z 18.5N 105.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 27/0000Z 19.0N 105.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 28/0000Z 18.5N 106.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

Quoting Levi32:


It might feel like it with all of the disturbances, but it definitely isn't, or else 94L would not be feeling wind shear from the subtropical jetstream. The jet is still very much as far south as it is supposed to be in May.

Conditions in the Atlantic are pretty marginal overall, and don't forget that although this year favors in-close developments, which is more dangerous, it also means each storm has less of a chance to become a hurricane. It is harder. 1985 is the glaring exception to this rule, as it was the worst hurricane landfalling season in U.S. history, yet all storms developed very close to land.


Is there a trough in gulf? It's so dry, haven't looked at any maps because im on my iPhone. It actually odd though because its dry here in se la but we keep getting pop ups, real hot too.
Quoting sunlinepr:





Well, Jeanne 04 and Wilma 05 debunked that map, lol. MIA & FLL however are 20 years out.
Quoting weatherh98:


Is there a trough in gulf? It's so dry, haven't looked at any maps because im on my iPhone. It actually odd though because its dry here in se la but we keep getting pop ups, real hot too.


It looks like there's a nice little ridge over the Gulf right now.

Here in Altamonte Springs, near Orlando, we have just had a small series of very intense thunderstorms, dead-center on the Winter Park/Maitland/Altamonte area. Winds really picked up as the red on the radar moved in, gusting easily to 45-50 mph. Tremendous rain and lighting, that, although not excessive, struck way too close for comfort several times. Then, as this was winding down, another storm developed and blew in with the same force as the first storms. Still raining and blustery and refreshingly cool. Okay, now I need to calm down :) Did anybody else catch these storms?
Quoting ProgressivePulse:



Well, Jeanne 04 and Wilma 05 debunked that map, lol. MIA & FLL however are 20 years out.


I could see this reaching td status before getting ripped to shreds over Florida and the Bahamas.

Benefitical Rain Maker.
The 00z Surface Analysis.

bub rain!!
Quoting nofailsafe:


It looks like there's a nice little ridge over the Gulf right now.



Looks like it will eventually shoot the gap, over Bahamas and S Florida and Cuba.

Quoting ProgressivePulse:



Well, Jeanne 04 and Wilma 05 debunked that map, lol. MIA & FLL however are 20 years out.


Seems that they should actualize the DB....

Hurricane strikes by counties 1900-2010
Link

Link
Quoting BrickellBreeze:


Looks like it will eventually shoot the gap, over Bahamas and S Florida and Cuba.



Yep, which for all intents and purposes would likely also push 94L up along the Florida peninsula on its way out as that front moves down south across the gulf coast.

Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
The 00z Surface Analysis.


way too N we will just have to wait till sunrise to find out
Quoting nofailsafe:


Yep, which for all intents and purposes would likely also push 94L up along the Florida peninsula on its way out as that front moves down south across the gulf coast.

Not if the ridge gets there and blocks it, which would shove it back west. This will be a tricky forecast imo.


Check out this outflow boundary hit some rising moist air from earlier storms and pop new thunderstorms!
Bud

... Record daily maximum rainfall set at Miami today...



As of 1052 PM... Miami International Airport has recorded 9.70 inches
of rainfall so far today. This shatters the daily maximum rainfall
record for the Miami area... previously 3.44 inches set back in 1901.

This new record also ranks as the 2nd wettest day recorded in Miami
for the month of may... with continuous records dating back to 1895.
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Not if the ridge gets there and blocks it, which would shove it back west. This will be a tricky forecast imo.


My understanding is that 94l will go ne over Cuba, and south Florida/ bahamas THEN get blocked by the ridge and head west over central Florida into the gulf, into louisiana or Texas.



i know its the nam just for reference
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


i know its the nam just for reference


When do the next model plots for 94l come out? 0z?
Miami max rainfall today maybe a bad sign. 12ZGeos-5 has 94L drowning SFL as it sits to the SW never really forming, just spitting naked swirls toward TX.

That Bud is huge!
Quoting BrickellBreeze:


My understanding is that 94l will go ne over Cuba, and south Florida/ bahamas THEN get blocked by the ridge and head west over central Florida into the gulf, into louisiana or Texas.

Yeah my local met. Dennis Phillips is favoring this scenario. It looks like a rainy memorial weekend for folks in FL. which sucks for those who have outdoor plans. Orlando Carnival on Sun. hope it doesn't rain out.
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Not if the ridge gets there and blocks it, which would shove it back west. This will be a tricky forecast imo.


I think it's going to be a matter of timing. You're right though, if the high gets stuck then the low will migrate over to the west.

Quoting Skyepony:
Miami max rainfall today maybe a bad sign. 12ZGeos-5 has 94L drowning SFL as it sits to the SW never really forming, just spitting naked swirls toward TX.

That Bud is huge!


big buds are the best


lol
Tropical Storm Sanvu

 
94L!!!! Personally I am a bit surprised. I will be putting a special update on my blog in the next hour (for late night bloggers...lurkers). Mainly...it will cover how 94L started and the challenges it faces in terms of tropical development....

I wonder if the NHC will issue a special tropical weather outlook?
So based upon the opinions and biases of Wunderbloggers, I spent time designing and programming several computer models for 94L and then graphed the results. Enjoy!



THESE ARE NOT REAL AND SHOULD NOT BE TREATED AS SUCH. I AM NOT A FORECASTER AND I HAVE NO AFFILIATION WITH THE NHC, NOR DID I CREATE ANY COMPUTER MODELS
Quoting nigel20:
Tropical Storm Sanvu

 
looks like typhoon Sanvu.
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Good job Wunderkid you have been all over the development of this little bugger.


Nothing has developed yet.
Quoting NCHurricane2009:
94L!!!! Personally I am a bit surprised. I will be putting a special update on my blog in the next hour (for late night bloggers...lurkers). Mainly...it will cover how 94L started and the challenges it faces in terms of tropical development....

I wonder if the NHC will issue a special tropical weather outlook?
Doubt it doesn`t look that organize.
Quoting jrweatherman:


Nothing has developed yet.

yes 94L has developed
from nothing to 94L that is develpoment
Derived from (NHC)ATCF data for TropicalStormBud for 23May12amGMT:
Its ATCF position was 12.6n105.5w
Its vector had changed from NWest at 15.3mph(24.6k/h) to NWest at 14.5mph(23.3k/h)
MaximumSustainedWinds had held steady at 35knots(40mph)65k/h
And minimum pressure had held steady at 1004millibars

For those who like to visually track TSBud's path... AJS is PuntaAbreojos
SJD is CaboSanLucas . ZLO is Manzanillo . ACA is Acapulco

The easternmost connected dot is where NHC declared 92E to be TropicalDepressionBud
The next dot to the west on that same curved line-segment is where TDBud became TSBud
The southeasternmost dot on the longest line-segment was its most recent ATCF position
The longest line-segment is a straightline-projection through TSBud's 2 most recent positions
to its closest point due south of IslaSocorro's southernmost point
(Sorry, no airport code is available for the naval station there)

The line connecting IslaSocorro and the northwesternmost dot on the straightline-projection represents the distance at which the straightline-projection passes due south of the island
On 23May12amGMT, TSBud was headed toward passing ~57miles(91kilometres) due south of IslaSocorro,Mexico in ~1day8hours from now... which means it's closest approach (ie at a point southwest of IslaSocorro) should be ~0.7 times that distance, or ~40miles(64.3kilometres) from the island... and adds ~2hours40minutes to the time of closest passage.

Copy&paste ajs, sjd, 18.694n110.97w-17.87n110.97w, zlo, lzc, zih, aca, 9.1n99.3w, 9.2n99.9w, 9.3n100.3w, 9.4n100.7w, 9.7n101.6w, 10.2n102.6w, 10.2n102.6w-10.8n103.6w, 10.8n103.6w-11.7n104.6w, 11.7n104.6w-12.6n105.5w, 11.7n104.6w-17.87n110.97w into the GreatCircleMapper.
For more complete info, replace the 'comma&space's between 9.1n99.3w and the first 10.2n102.6w with dashes, AND leave the comma&space between the first and second 10.2n102.6w
(The forum program inserts spaces into overly long strings of letters&numbers&characters.
So I couldn't leave a "copy&paste"able copy of what generated my map.)
The previous mapping for comparison.
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
from nothing to 94L that is develpoment


Chuck Norris would approve. You have been on this disturbance 24/7. That's dedication
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


big buds are the best


lol


Indeed...

Bud's Dvorak info. He's strengthening again, after a pretty bad hit. CI is 2.6, even had a irregular CDO briefly.
(click to enlarge; graphics can further be enlarged in Link window)

Bamm, Bamm, Bamm..

Wouldn't it be something to have Alberto and Beryl before June 1? IIRC, the only other time we had more than one May storm was in 1887.*

*Do not take this statement to heart, or to represent some sort of portrayed likelihood on my part. I'm just showcasing my knowledge of the Atlantic hurricane database, because tooting my horn is one of my favorite pastimes.
Quoting KoritheMan:
Wouldn't it be something to have Alberto and Beryl before June 1? IIRC, the only other time we had more than one May storm was in 1887.


That would put us ahead of '05..
Very nice TRMM of Bud.. Click image for very large quicktime animation.

Quoting Skyepony:


That would put us ahead of '05..


UH OH
777. LBAR
Quoting WxGeekVA:
So based upon the opinions and biases of Wunderbloggers, I spent time designing and programming several computer models for 94L and then graphed the results. Enjoy!



THESE ARE NOT REAL AND SHOULD NOT BE TREATED AS SUCH. I AM NOT A FORECASTER AND I HAVE NO AFFILIATION WITH THE NHC, NOR DID I CREATE ANY COMPUTER MODELS


That made me laugh! Very clever.
I'm upset with the current model forecast for the invest in the Caribbean, cause guess what that would likely mean? More beneficial rain for east and southeast Florida, but west central and north Florida would miss out AGAIN.

In fact such a track for a system is a common path that brings dry air into our area here after it passes by to the east. Such an occurrence would likely disrupt the wet season pattern which is wanting to take shape.


I really, really hope the models shift west, or just well east or keep it way, but just east of Florida or southeast Florida is actually worse case scenario, dryness wise for us here in West Central Florida.
Good night guys!
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Yeah my local met. Dennis Phillips is favoring this scenario. It looks like a rainy memorial weekend for folks in FL. which sucks for those who have outdoor plans. Orlando Carnival on Sun. hope it doesn't rain out.



I really hope that scenario does happen, it would mean very high rain amounts for all of South and Central Florida, similar tracks have brought lots of rain here locally before. I believe he is thinking that because the developing upper air patterns do tend to favor such a track.


I just hope the models that are curing it across southeast Florida and continue it that way will be wrong, that would mean dryness here.

94L prognosis on my blog....hot off the press for you late night bloggers/lurkers!If u are blogging from the western Caribbean tonight...feel free to comment on impacts (especially rainwise) that you have been seeing. I am curious to know....
Posted the wrong working copy inre TSBob's vector, MaxSusWinds, and minimum pressure up in comment765. The comment has since been corrected to read:
Its vector had changed from NWest at 15.3mph(24.6k/h) to NWest at 14.5mph(23.3k/h)
MaximumSustainedWinds had held steady at 35knots(40mph)65k/h
And minimum pressure had held steady at 1004millibars

Quoting Jedkins01:
I'm upset with the current model forecast for the invest in the Caribbean, cause guess what that would likely mean? More beneficial rain for east and southeast Florida, but west central and north Florida would miss out AGAIN.

In fact such a track for a system is a common path that brings dry air into our area here after it passes by to the east. Such an occurrence would likely disrupt the wet season pattern which is wanting to take shape.


I really, really hope the models shift west, or just well east or keep it way, but just east of Florida or southeast Florida is actually worse case scenario, dryness wise for us here in West Central Florida.
That is only part of what is going to happen as high pressure builds over the system and pushes it back west and crosses over FL. But I see what you are saying about the dry air and if the system moves east of the state we will get into a northeast flow that would bring down drier air, so if we really want to put a dent into this drought a track to our west or right over us would be the best case scenario.
Quoting KoritheMan:


UH OH

Well...one could argue that 2007...2008...2003...each having activity before June 1....were all ahead of '05 at the beginning (which had its first storm on June 8). Pre-season activity doesn't show statistical correlation with the number of storms by the end of the season...does it?
What I find interesting is that 500mb vorticity has been advecting over Central America today and has now emerged over the Caribbean:



Vorticity at the lower levels is still elongated N-S. Looking at satellite there are two main areas of convection: one on the north side, and one on the south side:



With the aid of more 500mb vorticity, I'm curious if the southern blob may work down its own LLC. This southern area of convection is in fact the remnants of the naked swirl we have been seeing spin around the NW Caribbean over the past several days. I could see how the northern side of convection gets sheared off overnight, while this southern area in more favorable conditions becomes more dominant. Or this could just stay a sheared mess and never develop ;~)
Quoting SouthDadeFish:
What I find interesting is that 500mb vorticity has been advecting over Central America today and has now emerged over the Caribbean:



Vorticity at the lower levels is still elongated N-S. Looking at satellite there are two main areas of convection: one on the north side, and one on the south side:



With the aid of more 500mb vorticity, I'm curious if the southern blob may work down its own LLC. This southern area of convection is in fact the remnants of the naked swirl we have been seeing spin around the NW Caribbean over the past several days. I could see how the northern side of convection gets sheared off overnight, while this southern area in more favorable conditions becomes more dominant. Or this could just stay a sheared mess and never develop ;~)


I still vote sheared mess. Does the Navy NRL decide independently of the NHC to Invest things?

Regardless of development...the impacts have already been felt by the way with all the rain in this area.
Hey SouthDadeFish Look at the wind shear over the southern blob, I think you might be right about it becoming the dominant circulation.

Quoting KoritheMan:


UH OH

I believe in 2005 Arlene did not form till June 9th and then Bret formed like the 26th, or thereabouts.
Quoting NCHurricane2009:

Well...one could argue that 2007...2008...2003...each having activity before June 1....were all ahead of '05 at the beginning (which had its first storm on June 8). Pre-season activity doesn't show statistical correlation with the number of storms by the end of the season...does it?


Not at all..I thought we were statistically joking..
GTcooliebai: Good job, Wunderkid, you have been all over the development of this little bugger.
761 jrweatherman: Nothing has developed yet.
763 wunderkidcayman: Yes, 94L has developed
764 wunderkidcayman: from nothing to 94L, that is development

The 18hours of change from 20knots&1010millibars to 20knots&1009millibars,
then to 25knots&1009millibars, then to 25knots&1008millibars

certainly appears to signal 94L's steady development to me.
Can't think of a better string of positives from the start for any recent Invest.
What-became-HurricaneHumphrey, maybe?
They turned Windsat on. It's alive! Fresh pass 94L.

768 AllStar17: [GoogleEarth graphics of Alberto and Bob]

Good job. But it appears that whoever drew the graphics (or set up a program to do the graphics) didn't keep track of the re-evaluations&alterations to the coordinates on the ATCF's official report-of-record.
Or I haven't kept track after the RIP, or after 24hours on the still-live storms... which distinctly could be the reason why those paths are somewhat different from what I remember.
Looks like nasty for Cape Hatteras start of June Hurricane season!

Quoting Skyepony:
Miami max rainfall today maybe a bad sign. 12ZGeos-5 has 94L drowning SFL as it sits to the SW never really forming, just spitting naked swirls toward TX.

That Bud is huge!


Awe c'mon! No more naked swirls. We need the kind that rain. Lol. Went fishing today on a lake that has fallen a lot since March. Doesn't take long that's for sure. Their NWS Shreveport is hoping for the ridge to work for us for a change.

MODELS CONTINUE TO STAY CONSISTENT ON THIS RIDGE BREAKING DOWN
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH EITHER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT COMMENCING OR A
TROPICAL/SUB TROPICAL WAVE FORMING OFF THE CAROLINA/FLORIDA COAST
AND MOVING WESTWARD...UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE AND ENTERING THE NE
GULF OF MEXICO. IF THE RIDGE CAN HOLD ON A LITTLE LONGER NEXT WEEK
BEFORE KEEPING THE SYSTEM ON A WESTWARD TRAJECTORY...THERE MAY BE
HOPE IN THE FORM OF RAIN CHANCES BY THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.
FOR NOW...WILL ADVERTISE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR EASTERN
HALF BEGINNING TUESDAY AND HOPE FOR THE BEST.
792 Skyepony They turned Windsat on. It's alive!

Thank goodness. Ever since they allowed SeaSCAT to die-without-a-replacement-ready well past its design-lifetime, it feels like a LOT of weather satellites have been dropping out without a replacement ready well past their design lifetimes.
the two players
Quoting NCHurricane2009:

Pre-season activity doesn't show statistical correlation with the number of storms by the end of the season...does it?


Yes. We're all doomed. The next one's going to New Orleans.
Dunno who's still up, but here's a blog from me to you. Enjoy it. Or not. I don't really care. :P
...........Miami is in big trouble

... Flood Watch in effect through late tonight...

The National Weather Service in Miami has issued a

* Flood Watch for a portion of South Florida... including the
following areas... coastal Miami Dade... far South Miami Dade...
inland Miami Dade and Metro Miami Dade.

* Through late tonight

* the combination of saturated grounds and standing water from the
heavy rainfall that occurred yesterday over portions of Miami Dade
County and the concern for additional periods with heavy
rainfall through Wednesday over these same areas has resulted in
a Flood Watch. Additional widespread accumulations ranging from
1 to 2 inches today through Wednesday night will be possible. As
typically observed during these events, locally higher amounts
will certainly remain possible over the areas where the heavy
rainfall becomes concentrated.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Flood Watch means there is the potential for flooding based on
the latest rainfall forecasts. Those living in areas prone to
flooding or those who have recently experienced flooding should be
prepared to take action should additional flooding develops.

You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible
flood warnings.





(Just setting up the template cuz if 94L were to undergo RapidIntensification, it's too close to land to waste time typing. But the info that's posted below is either factual, or my best opinion)
Derived from (NHC)ATCF data for 94L on 23May6amGMT:
18.5n84.3w has been re-evaluated&altered
19.1n83.7w, 20.0n83.0w are now the newest positions

The difference between 18.5n84.3w and 19.1n83.7w is ~57miles(92kilometres) or ~0.83degrees,
which is a big enough gap to tell me that the NHC doesn't have a handle on the system as of yet.

Its ATCF position was 20.0n83.0w
Its vector had increased from NEast at 13.5mph(21.8k/h) to NEast at 12.8mph(20.7k/h)
MaximumSustainedWinds had held steady at ~25knots(29mph)46k/h
And minimum pressure had increased from 1008millibars to 1009millibars

For those who like to visually track 94L's path...EYW is KeyWest
LYB is LittleCayman . PND is PuntaGorda,Belize . BHG is BrusLaguna,Honduras

The southwesternmost point on the connected line-segments is where NHC initiated 94L
The nothernmost point on the connected line-segments is its most recent position

Copy&paste eyw, lyb, pnd, bhg, 18.0n86.0w-18.0n85.4w, 18.0n85.4w-18.0n84.9w, 18.0n84.9w-18.2n84.5w, 18.2n84.5w-19.1n83.7w, 19.1n83.7w-20.0n83.0w into the GreatCircleMapper for more info

Don't bother clicking. This is the most recent previous mapping (of TSBob to complete the template. Tol'ja not to click.) for comparison.
hey can some tell me what the hell is going on cause I know for sure that 94L is not at 20N 83W
807. VR46L
THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RUNS FROM HONDURAS BEYOND THE EASTERN HALF
OF CUBA INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PASSES THROUGH 23N45W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS THE EAST
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS...INTO NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA.
A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
AREA. THE TROUGH STARTS IN NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS...REACHING
A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 18N84W...CROSSING
THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA...TO THE FLORIDA KEYS. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COVERS THE CARIBBEAN
SEA...HONDURAS...AND NICARAGUA FROM 13N TO 17N BETWEEN 80W AND
86W...FROM 20N TO CUBA BETWEEN 78W AND 82W...AND IN EXTREME
NORTHERN BELIZE. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO
EAST CENTRAL COASTAL NICARAGUA.

Can someone tell me how this is 94L? As it has not been called that By the NHC. I see the Navy has called it AL94 but do they have different guidelines to the NHC?

Thanking you in advance
well guys it looks like the cuba low has fully spit out its LLC naked and visible on shortwave ir at 22N 84W moving W the center looks like it got slaped on the wall got squashed flat and void of convection looks like honduras low will win the battle
Crown Weather believes that if anything develops, it will be off of the SE US coast.


At this point, I think development of Invest 94-L is unlikely today through Thursday due to very strong wind shear values. Now, should an area of low pressure develop along the US Southeast coast this weekend, some sort of sub-tropical or tropical development is possible as environmental conditions will be somewhat favorable for development and this is something that will need to be monitored closely.
Quoting luvtogolf:
Crown Weather believes that if anything develops, it will be off of the SE US coast.


At this point, I think development of Invest 94-L is unlikely today through Thursday due to very strong wind shear values. Now, should an area of low pressure develop along the US Southeast coast this weekend, some sort of sub-tropical or tropical development is possible as environmental conditions will be somewhat favorable for development and this is something that will need to be monitored closely.

I noticed in the past he like E coast system to develop there hey it won't develop till it reaches E coast it will move to the E coast and become stronger bla bla bla I say just watch and see what happens
Morning everyone...

It looks good, but Bud remains very weak:



Sanvu



Not much change in 94L overnight... Pressure up 1mb, winds stayed the same (according to the ATCF file).

And the SPC has a severe weather threat outlined for day 5, Sunday.
This would create some excitement on the blog:



I'm not sure if it's still fully tropical at that point in the run but it's still interesting.

6z run has it also but a little weaker and way offshore

813. MahFL
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
It honestly feels like the end of June as opposed to the end of May.

Maybe we'll get our first hurricane next month? I wouldn't doubt it with the way conditions are setting up.


Don't exagerate.



I still see the significant low around 17N/84.5W
Possibility the system splits , the Low around the Isle of Youth goes off to the NE and the Low just East of Roatan lingers in the Caribbean, just saying...
Quoting stormpetrol:



I still see the significant low around 17N/84.5W
Good morning. Very dark in East End and winds are 20-37 mph. Rain has started again.
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Good morning. Very dark in East End and winds are 20-37 mph. Rain has started again.


Good morning, its terrible here very squally!
Quoting stormpetrol:



I still see the significant low around 17N/84.5W

I think yeah around the same area

Ithink this one is the true 94L and that is where it should be located also they have that scond low on 06 surface map but I think that is the one that is getting stronger not weaker and disipate
also on sortwave ir you can see the LLC by Isle of youth void of convection and movin W-WSW also the center look like it got smack into a wall and flaten out so honduras looks to be the winner
GFS is showing Beryl and Chris hitting FL over the next 9 days. Yikes!!!!

Beryl could be a strong tropical storm of hurricane coming ashore in Volusia or Flagler county (Daytona Beach up to St. Augustine).

Sunday Morning



Next Thursday.

Good morning!

Looking at Bud, I'm sure that Bud's center is not located on the north eastern side of the convection like the NHC discussion states. It's pretty easy to see where the center is.

Here's the good news with all these tropical systems heading for FL is the RAIN!! Infact what could be Beryl may do a Fay type track.

Quoting wunderkidcayman:

I think yeah around the same area

Ithink this one is the true 94L and that is where it should be located also they have that scond low on 06 surface map but I think that is the one that is getting stronger not weaker and disipate


Vorticity is stronger in that area also!
Our local met here at channel 9 (Tom Terry) says he is favoring a GFS type track and he believes this will be Beryl come Sunday as it comes ashore in C or N FL.

Is that a...?

Quoting stormpetrol:


Vorticity is stronger in that area also!

shear is also low with that one near honduras unlike the one by isle of youth
and low level convergence is the strongest with the honduras low
there is also building convection with the honduras low unlike it northern counter parts by Is. of youth
Lots of tree limbs down around my work from last nights storm here in north Orlando. The lightning from this storm last night was wicked.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Is that a...?


Could be.
Quoting HurrMichaelOrl:
Here in Altamonte Springs, near Orlando, we have just had a small series of very intense thunderstorms, dead-center on the Winter Park/Maitland/Altamonte area. Winds really picked up as the red on the radar moved in, gusting easily to 45-50 mph. Tremendous rain and lighting, that, although not excessive, struck way too close for comfort several times. Then, as this was winding down, another storm developed and blew in with the same force as the first storms. Still raining and blustery and refreshingly cool. Okay, now I need to calm down :) Did anybody else catch these storms?


It missed my house by 3 miles but my work area got pounded it appears.
Miami NWS Discussion

THE ECMWF AND GFS
DISAGREE ON THE HANDLING OF THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER IN THE W CARIB.
THE ECMWF KEEPS THE SYSTEM IN THE CARIB WITH A LOW LEVEL TROUGH
PERSISTING NEAR S FLA WHILE THE GFS BRINGS THE LOW TO OFF OF THE SE
FLA COAST. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST BUT AN EFFECT POSSIBLY FOR
THE MARINE PACKAGE. SEEING CURRENT BUOY WINDS/COASTAL OBSERVATIONS
WILL LEAN TOWARD THE GFS.

EXTENDED FORECAST...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH
AXIS SLIDES ACROSS S FLA SATURDAY AS UPPER HIGH PRESSURE MOVES NE
FROM THE S GREAT PLAINS. THIS CUTS THE UPPER TROUGH WITH A CLOSED
UPPER LOW DEVELOPING AND MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS S FLA INTO THE GULF
OF MEX. A DEEP EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS WITH A "MORE NORMAL" PATTERN
OF E COAST NOCTURNAL CONVECTION WITH INTERIOR AND W DIURNALLY. THIS
EASTERLY FLOW THOUGH PULLS THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE THAT WAS
SHOVED EASTWARD AND BACK OVER S FLA SO MORE RAIN POSSIBLE DOWN THE
ROAD.
Quoting Ameister12:

Could be.

Weak tropical storms don't build eyewalls...this is no weak tropical storm anymore.
all's i can say is all these lows spinning round out there yall better get some rain up on the tampa area.... just saying.....
GFS not only shows what could be Beryl but it also shows an pretty strong system here. Maybe strong Tropical Storm.

This isn't a 40mph tropical storm anymore. Probably a moderate to higher end tropical storm right now.
836. MahFL
Quoting StormTracker2K:
GFS is showing Beryl and Chris hitting FL over the next 9 days. Yikes!!!!em>


Holy crap !
I live in NE FL.
It is unlikely to see 94L develop today. The wind shear is very high, but should be retreating in a day or two. Shear Tendency is lessening. The steering currents would certainly indicate a North or Northeast movement over the next few days. There is a strong blocking high in the Atlantic which should keep 94L close to the Southeast Coast and possibly get moved back towards Florida. Too bad no one is going to see this blog. Best one I've done. :)





Quoting Ameister12:
This isn't a 40mph tropical storm anymore. Probably a moderate to higher end tropical storm right now.

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.2 /1000.4mb/ 49.0kt

We better watch Bud for rapid intensification today (if it hasn't already started).

Dry air intrusion...

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Weak tropical storms don't build eyewalls...this is no weak tropical storm anymore.


...that's no moon...

wait for it....


wait for it....


wait for it....



PINHOLE EYE!
RI!
EI!
DOOM!!!!
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

I noticed in the past he like E coast system to develop there hey it won't develop till it reaches E coast it will move to the E coast and become stronger bla bla bla I say just watch and see what happens


"bla bla bla" when talking Crown Weather? He's pretty good at what he does.
Quoting MahFL:


LOL! Yup it looks like it is going to be an interesting weekend as 94L merges with an upper trough off the FL coast. GFS really ramps this up this weekend.
Quoting jrweatherman:


"bla bla bla" when talking Crown Weather? He's pretty good at what he does.


Crown weather nailed Alberto days in advance.
"Funny how inactive this thread is now when the most dramatic part of Bud's life is occurring. I was just waiting until that nonsense with the LLC to the east of the deep convection stopped after a Kelvin wave moved through and now it might be fully under that dense CDO and if it is, this Bud is ready to burst (aka, explode). Over the last 8 hours, Bud has looked better than it ever has and the CDO is displaying behavior that suggests something dramatic is about to unfold or is. Its size looked much larger but the main part is fairly condensed and tight. Unless you look at the new RBTOP, it doesn't appear as if anything crazy is happening but with this particular imagery, you can see the sign that RI or EI is imminent:

Link

Time sensitive, but look at the rapid swirling going on with the coldest cloud tops, whenever a TC shows that its bombing. The other clue is that the CDO is becoming more curved at the edges and expanding slightly to the east which wasn't happening during the last 30 hours."
Quoting Grothar:
It is unlikely to see 94L develop today. The wind shear is very high, but should be retreating in a day or two. Shear Tendency is lessening. The steering currents would certainly indicate a North or Northeast movement over the next few days. There is a strong blocking high in the Atlantic which should keep 94L close to the Southeast Coast and possibly get moved back towards Florida. Too bad no one is going to see this blog. Best one I've done. :)





hopefully if this pans out we will get some rain in central florida
Quoting intampa:
all's i can say is all these lows spinning round out there yall better get some rain up on the tampa area.... just saying.....
I second that, not a cloud in the sky this morning
Quoting LargoFl:
hopefully if this pans out we will get some rain in central florida


Looks like it could be more than some.
I would've posted this yesterday if I hadn't been banned (long story but in the end it was mostly accidental :P ) but since the most favourable conditions for RI will be tonight I have a feeling we still might see hurricane Bud. It just needed an eyewall for tonight, which it seemed to have built.

Although I don't think it's strengthening anymore, appearance hasn't changed much in the last few hours.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Is that a...?



No, I think it's a....
851. MahFL
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
"Funny how inactive this thread is now when the most dramatic part of Bud's life is occurring. I was just waiting until that nonsense with the LLC to the east of the deep convection stopped after a Kelvin wave moved through and now it might be fully under that dense CDO and if it is, this Bud is ready to burst (aka, explode). Over the last 8 hours, Bud has looked better than it ever has and the CDO is displaying behavior that suggests something dramatic is about to unfold or is. Its size looked much larger but the main part is fairly condensed and tight. Unless you look at the new RBTOP, it doesn't appear as if anything crazy is happening but with this particular imagery, you can see the sign that RI or EI is imminent:

Link

Time sensitive, but look at the rapid swirling going on with the coldest cloud tops, whenever a TC shows that its bombing. The other clue is that the CDO is becoming more curved at the edges and expanding slightly to the east which wasn't happening during the last 30 hours."


East Pacific storms are not that intersting or dangerous. Hardly any hit land. Calm down.
Quoting StormTracker2K:
Our local met here at channel 9 (Tom Terry) says he is favoring a GFS type track and he believes this will be Beryl come Sunday as it comes ashore in C or N FL.

i hope he is right ST..we need all that rain it can produce here in central florida
Sanvu looks to be very close to typhoon status.

Quoting yqt1001:
Sanvu looks to be very close to typhoon status.


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.4 / 991.8mb/ 53.0kt

23/0832 UTC 17.3N 139.8E T3.5/3.5 SANVU -- West Pacific

Almost..
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.4 / 991.8mb/ 53.0kt

23/0832 UTC 17.3N 139.8E T3.5/3.5 SANVU -- West Pacific

Almost..


Should be upgraded...


Quoting MahFL:


East Pacific storms are not that intersting or dangerous. Hardly any hit land. Calm down.


You're really saying that storms are only interesting if they hit land? He never once said that this was about to loads of damage, just that it was showing signs of developing quickly, which is true. EPAC storms develop in the same way as Atlantic ones do, so if you truly have a passion for meteorology rather than just watching the hype of an impending landfall then you'd have an interest in them too.

Plus, quotation marks generally mean that it's not even his words/opinion, so don't tell him to calm down.
857. MahFL
Quoting NICycloneChaser:


.. so don't tell him to calm down.


I'll do what I like.
Outdoor plans for Memeorial Day across FL maybe non-existant.

Quoting StormTracker2K:
Here's the good news with all these tropical systems heading for FL is the RAIN!! Infact what could be Beryl may do a Fay type track.



Hey i said that last night at least someone agrees
Quoting StormTracker2K:
Outdoor plans for Memeorial Day across FL maybe non-existant.

Thank would be great really needing the rain on the west side. Seems like everytime they call for rain it dont. Think POSITIVE
Quoting severstorm:
Thank would be great really needing the rain on the west side. Seems like everytime they call for rain it dont. Think POSITIVE


Yeah it looks as if the tropical moisture is going to take hold of FL as the "Offical start of the rainy season" appears to be on the way.


Its still really elongated....

Bud is much stronger tha the last advisory
Hot off the press.


as of 12Z 850 vort has grown bigger rounder and stronger with the honduras low and much weaker and flat with the cuba low
94L is the reason I leave these things to the experts.
This thing looks to me like the Emperors new clothes.
Quoting NICycloneChaser:


You're really saying that storms are only interesting if they hit land? He never once said that this was about to loads of damage, just that it was showing signs of developing quickly, which is true. EPAC storms develop in the same way as Atlantic ones do, so if you truly have a passion for meteorology rather than just watching the hype of an impending landfall then you'd have an interest in them too.

Plus, quotation marks generally mean that it's not even his words/opinion, so don't tell him to calm down.

Don't worry about him. He seems to have a grudge against me or something.

Oh well.
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
as of 12Z 850 vort has grown bigger rounder and stronger with the honduras low and much weaker and flat with the cuba low


Yup in contrast to yesterdays vort, the Honduras vort seems to be taking over.



Good morning

Another very wet day on tap here. Strong convection training towards us from the SSW looks capable of dropping 8 inches of rain today. Sure hope that doesn't happen but not looking good on that front.

The low pressure in the NW Caribbean is still very broad and elongated all the way from Honduras to the South coast of Cuba. The 850 and 925 mb vort also match up over this wide swath but the only place even remotely conducive to development would be down near the coast of Honduras and Nicaragua. Too much shear near 20 N.

Rain will be the big threat today in Cayman along with strong gusty winds
same with the 925 vort but 12Z not out yet
but show it with the 0600 and 0900 one and should show that same trend on the 12Z map
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Don't worry about him. He seems to have a grudge against me or something.

Oh well.


Are you in school still?

GOOD MORNING FOLKS!!!
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
same with the 925 vort but 12Z not out yet
but show it with the 0600 and 0900 one and should show that same trend on the 12Z map


when do you expect weather conditions to improve in Grand Cayman? I'll be there from 5/24 - 5/31.
Anyone has the link to the site that shows the atmospheric moisture data gathered from the weather balloons?
NHC has it wrong..



IMHO its at 19 N 83 W
NWS a little humorous this morning.

000
FXUS62 KMFL 231127 AAA
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 AM EDT WED MAY 23 2012/

DISCUSSION...
YESTERDAY MOTHER NATURE BISECTED S FLA WITH RECORD RAINFALL SE AS A
A WILDFIRE BROKE OUT E OF NAPLES. WHAT IS IN STORE THE NEXT 3 DAYS?
THE HEADLINE ABOVE IS THE GENERAL THINKING.

Perhaps it's because I haven't seen an EPAC storm for a year, but Bud looks pretty big circulation wise to me.
Quoting kmanislander:
Good morning

Another very wet day on tap here. Strong convection training towards us from the SSW looks capable of dropping 8 inches of rain today. Sure hope that doesn't happen but not looking good on that front.

The low pressure in the NW Caribbean is still very broad and elongated all the way from Honduras to the South coast of Cuba. The 850 and 925 mb vort also match up over this wide swath but the only place even remotely conducive to development would be down near the coast of Honduras and Nicaragua. Too much shear near 20 N.

Rain will be the big threat today in Cayman along with strong gusty winds

hey kman you se what I am seeing with the vort though
the south side is growing stronger while the norther side is weaker
ATCF says Bud is blooming:

EP, 02, 2012052312, , BEST, 0, 132N, 1074W, 55, 997, TS, 50, NEQ, 20, 20, 20, 20, 1009, 240, 20, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, BUD, M,
Quoting MrstormX:
Perhaps it's because I haven't seen an EPAC storm for a year, but Bud looks pretty big circulation wise to me.


Look at the west pac storm!!!
Quoting Neapolitan:
ATCF says Bud is blossoming:

EP, 02, 2012052312, , BEST, 0, 132N, 1074W, 55, 997, TS, 50, NEQ, 20, 20, 20, 20


Thats a low pressure for 50
Quoting weatherh98:


Thats a low pressure for 50


55kts is 65mph so 997mb isn't all that low. 990 is roughly 75mph so if anything it's a bit high.

Satellite blackout over Bud so no new images for a while. :/
Quoting weatherh98:


Look at the west pac storm!!!


Yea, that's a biggie.
Quoting weatherh98:
NHC has it wrong..



IMHO its at 17 N 83 W


These broad lows typically have several small gyres within the overall low pressure envelope. 94 L was designated late yesterday at the position where the pressure was lowest and which also coincided with one of at least two circulations evident from sat. Imagery. In the past we have seen the original position of a low invest abandoned and repositioned when another area within the envelope assumes dominance for the time being and that could happen with this feature.

The deepest convection tends to create the lowest pressure and this gives the impression that the surface low is " jumping from place to place".

For these reasons you should not focus on any one position as the so called center has a tendency to dance around where pressure is broad and strong convection is spread out.
Look at the big picture.
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

hey kman you se what I am seeing with the vort though
the south side is growing stronger while the norther side is weaker


See my post 883. This is not unusual with broad disorganized low pressures especially in a high shear environment where the so called center tends to follow the area of strongest convection
I will come back on in a couple of hours
Quoting SaratogaSteve:


when do you expect weather conditions to improve in Grand Cayman? I'll be there from 5/24 - 5/31.

oh umm today I think we will have a break through mid day today after that back to stormy weather this is what I say but the offical forecast from the locat met office say conditions will improve today and drecreasing chance of showers but I really don't really trust it


Quoting weatherh98:
NHC has it wrong..



IMHO its at 19 N 83 W


yes NHC has it wrong but I still say it is not at 19N
more like 18N or 17N
gfs is consistant with this unusual course hopefully its just a trough
Quoting kmanislander:


These broad lows typically have several small gyres within the overall low pressure envelope. 94 L was designated late yesterday at the position where the pressure was lowest and which also coincided with one of at least two circulations evident from sat. Imagery. In the past we have seen the original position of a low invest abandoned and repositioned when another area within the envelope assumes dominance for the time being and that could happen with this feature.

The deepest convection tends to create the lowest pressure and this gives the impression that the surface low is " jumping from place to place".

For these reason you should not focus on any one position as the so called center has a tendency to dance around where pressure is broad and strong convection is spread out.
Look at the big picture.



So the Emperor has many sets of New Clothes spread around the room?
Look at the room and not the position of the Emperor in the room?
LOL
I love how OLS takes visible images at night. Can see population centers in Mexico. :P

Quoting kmanislander:


See my post 883. This is not unusual with broad disorganized low pressures especially in a high shear environment where the so called center tends to follow the area of strongest convection

that is so true

so I am expecting the 94L to reposition it self to the south near honduras just a side note(if it continues to stick around for about 24-48 more hours in the area that it is now developing that south low it will be in really good conditions in terms of shear
The visual video that follows the audio posted in Dr. Masters Blog, tracking back to where everybody took shelter is stunning.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
NHC changed past track and curent position of 94L kman is right pinpointing the low not a good idea yet until thing get going
Quoting Jedkins01:
I'm upset with the current model forecast for the invest in the Caribbean, cause guess what that would likely mean? More beneficial rain for southeast Florida, but central and north Florida would miss out AGAIN.

In fact such a track for a system is a common path that brings dry air into our area here after it passes by to the east. Such an occurrence would likely disrupt the wet season pattern which is wanting to take shape.


I really, really hope the models shift west, or just well east or keep it way, but just east of Florida or southeast Florida is actually worse case scenario, dryness wise for us here in West Central Florida.


Guess us in Central and north Florida will have to wait till June 1st. But on the bright side, the GFS southwestwards into Jacksonville by Tuesday. But it's an outlier though(and it's not paying attention to the ULL that'll be just SE of the Carolina's by that time frame which will be spun-up by the remnants of Alberto)...And the ridge axis that will set up from Cancun/the eastern Gulf up to the Ohio Valley will completely breakdown by Monday-enabling the Atlantic ridge to send it towards the Carolina's.
First bit of yellow appear around the convection. cold cloud tops are forming.