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Bryan Norcross's Hurricane Almanac: a book review

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:19 PM GMT on May 24, 2007

Bryan Norcross, Hurricane Analyst for CBS's national news and Director of Meteorology for WFOR-TV in Miami, has just written his second annual Hurricane Almanac: The Essential Guide to Storms Past, Present, and Future. Bryan is famous for his marathon on-air performance during Hurricane Andrew of 1992, when he talked people through the storm as their homes came apart around them. His book is a great addition to the bookshelf of anyone living in Hurricane Alley. Like any almanac, it has information on a variety of topics, and is not meant to be read straight through. My favorite part was his 5-page description of his Hurricane Andrew experience--and the lessons we should have learned from it, but didn't. Some other highlights:

Ready, Set, Hurricane!
The book's greatest strength is the impressive 134-page section that provides checklists and practical information on how to prepare, ride out, evacuate, and recover from a hurricane. There are so many things to think of that having them available in a handy book one can pick up anytime makes Hurricane Almanac a great book to have. When preparing for a hurricane, you'll find tips on what storm shutters and generator to buy, what to do with your pet, computer, boat, pool and car, and how to make a Family Hurricane Plan. Bryan also boosts a web which I also like, onestorm.org. This is a free hurricane preparedness web site that helps you put together a family hurricane plan.

I like how the book emphasizes the most important things it wants you to know. In the case of the Ready, Set, Hurricane! section, Bryan emphasizes this:

IF YOU DON'T DO ANYTHING ELSE, DO THIS!

-Contact a friend or relative out of town and ask him or her to be your family's emergency contact.

-Before the storm, be sure that every member of the family has a piece of paper on them that says, for example:

EMERGENCY CONTACT
AUNT MILLY IN NJ
201-555-5555

-Call Aunt Milly before the wind starts blowing to tell her exactly where you are and what you are planning to do.

-Be sure everybody knows that they should call Aunt Milly if they get lost or anything bad happens.

It's important that your main contact person is out of town, because local calls are more likely to be disrupted after a storm. Both ends of local connections are subject to problems.

Another interesting fact I learned from Hurricane Almanac: You can send an email message to any cell phone able to receive text messages by emailing to XXX-XXX-XXXX@teleflip.com (replace the X's with the phone number of the person's cell phone). The message will be forwarded to any cell phone provider in the U.S.

Hurricane Almanac also details what to do after the storm--how to deal with FEMA and your insurance company, save water-damaged possessions, and purify your drinking water. Additional chapters include an excellent summary of all the various National Hurricane Center advisories and how to interpret them, the basics of hurricane science, and a summary of some of the famous storms in the past. The opening chapter includes a very passionate critique of our emergency management system, building codes, and the politicians who fail to adequately protect us against hurricanes. A sample quote:

That President Bush, DHS Secretary Michael Chertoff, and the head of the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, General Carl Strock were completely misinformed and saying ridiculous things for days and weeks after the Katrina disaster is frightening. These people know when a pin drops in Afghanistan. How can they not know when a levee breaks in New Orleans? The evidence says that the communications and operational infrastructure of the federal government broke down. We should all be very concerned.

Hurricane Almanac (335 pages, softcover) is $10.39 from amazon.com. It's not fancy--all the photos and figures are black and white (if you want a coffee table hurricane book with beautiful color photos and figures, get Dr. Kerry Emanuel's Divine Wind. An added bonus for Hurricane Almanac is a companion web site, hurricanealmanac.com. The web site is not fancy, but does have some useful links and a page that allows you to send Byran emails with suggestions and/or fixes for the 2008 version of his book.

The book also has a provocative chapter titled, "How I'd do it better," that I'll comment on in a future blog.

Jeff Masters

Book and Movie Reviews

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Plywood the outlook was released at midnight and looks good for the U.S. if it verifies.But the main message to all is no matter what all the outlooks say meaning accuweather noaa,tsr and so on you should always prepare cause it only takes that one storm moving right over your community.Adrian

Independent 2007 Outlook
IF YOU ALL GO BY THAT FORCAST YOU BE VARY SORRY THAT YOU DID
its not that I think we are going to get hit, something in my right side of my mind tells me this is the year for south florida. A # of areas are overdue for a storm, and this year looks like it might be just that.
plywood---they are forecasting 0 storms in the GOM,and none in the West Carribean 'till October.No offense Adrian,but I'm starting to agree with those people who were questioning the authors' abilities a few days ago.
Posted By: Tazmanian at 8:16 PM EDT on May 25, 2007.

IF YOU ALL GO BY THAT FORCAST YOU BE VARY SORRY THAT YOU DID.

Taz thats exactly what i stated you should always be prepare no matters what the outlooks say.There's no need fo bashing just let it go and lets see what the season brings.

One thing to note look for a slow june if the current pattern persists.Dont see any development across the basin atleast threw the next 7 days.
Yes,but both the GFS and ECMWF are showing a big upper ridge building into the Atlantic in about a week and a half.Shear will drop considerably.
508. FLBoy
One thing to note look for a slow june if the current pattern persists.


Exactly what pattern is that?
The pattern of high wind shear.Which,as I just said,should reverse itself.
We'll plywood then i guess you can with accuweather's outlook.

Free Image Hosting at www.ImageShack.us
That outlook is so idiotic... even the least active hurricane season ever recorded had one storm make landfall...
I think so too STL....which is dissapointing.After last year's very well-thought out and pretty accurate forecast I was expecting better.
And what high shear (well, maybe in the Gulf but not the rest of the Atlantic)?





Shear is supposed to be high.... why else does the first storm on average form in mid-July?
Flboy The pattern meaning FRONTS continue to dive down into the southeast U.S. and plus high windshear across most parts of the basin.Iam personally leaning to a quite june and maybe first have of july which is quite typical cause these months usually produce low activity.Things dont usually ramp up till the begining of august in a normal season.
its not that I think we are going to get hit, something in my right side of my mind tells me this is the year for south florida. A # of areas are overdue for a storm, and this year looks like it might be just that.

You are correct Miami and Ft. Lauderdale are way overdue. West Palm Beach has had enough storms but there is a good chance that when Miami gets hit head that the upper keys to Martin County will be effected if the storm is large enough. Key West has also had a few close calls such as Dennis, Rita, Katrina.
Bill Gray says the average probability of a named storm landfall is 97%.
Adrian.....even 2005 had some pretty strong late May troughs:

Bill Gray says the average probability of a named storm landfall is 97%.

That means that there must have been a year or two that had no landfalls at all or it would be 100%.
Actually,that 2005 trough is stronger than anything we've seen since April.
My forecast for 07 5
Just for the heck of it, lets say south florida is due to get hit by a hurricane this year. That doesn't mean anything unless the steering pattern actually supports a landfall. otherwise, you can throw the "being due" talk out the window.
I know Adrian.The past has no effect on the future.
GOES Water Vapor Loop of Gulf and CaribbeanLink
525. FLBoy
Some recent statistics:

2001: TS Allison....6/5/2001
2002.........................
2003: TS Ana.....4/18/2003.....TS Bill...6/28/03
2004: .......................
2005: TS Arlene...6/8/05....TS Bret....6/28/05
2006: TS Alberto...6/10/06
2007: STS Andrea....5/9/07


Here's just a recent sampling of storms in June or before. Not concerned with the past 50 years right now. Usually we either get something early or we don't. These stats averaged in the past seven years we have had a storm form in the month of June or before.
Yeah H23....I've been in this state longer than dirt and I know all about August.
In 2004 Alex formed in August.
And as far as shear goes, a storm only needs to find an area with low shear:



Even 2005 had areas of high shear during the peak season (yellow and reds).
528. MZT
Yeah, June cyclones are not that unusual, and ordinarily are tropical storms... nothing more than warm-up events.
529. FLBoy
sorry....I was interrupted while typing....Alex formed on 7-31.
The point is....who can say that the "pattern" now...be it whatever it is is going to remain and prevent anything from happening before mid to late season?
We already have one named entity.
530. SMU88
Well I just finished reading the forecast from the Independent Weather Information Center and I am convinced that 2007 will be like 2006. So everyone should forget about the hurricane season this year and prepare for the 2008 season.

By the way...their forecast is in direct contradiction to Stormtop, I mean StormKat. I am now confused who should I believe????? HA HA HA
Here is how an average season progresses (NHC):



That is of course for an average season; even 2006 was far above average for June and July (El Nino slowed down the second half of the season and lead to an early end). Also, I believe that there is an error with the dates for the last storm and last hurricane, they should be reversed (this is what the NHC has).
532. FLBoy
Yep...there's your basic 10 storm average.
533. RL3AO
I was expecting a TD by now. I guess I was wrong.
534. RL3AO
1
Here is the GFDL model forecast.
NA
Hey Good evening everybody!!
Q:Will a named storm strike the continental U.S. in 2007?
A:Don't Count on it.
So that's where they got it.
who stretched the blog ???
The Caribbean Sea...
unlike the windy conditions in the Gulf...broad sfc troughing is
producing a weak pres grad in the Carib with two sfc trough axes
being analyzed in the region. One is in the NW Carib running
from Honduras to NW Cuba. There is a fair amount of low to mid
level cyclonic turning about the axis...but based on sfc obs it
does not appear closed.

Closed surface low on the way ??
Posted By: HIEXPRESS at 9:02 PM CDT on May 25, 2007.

Q:Will a named storm strike the continental U.S. in 2007?
A:Don't Count on it.
So that's where they got it.


This was the answer that I got:



LOL...
541. MZT
The GFDL seems to be groping with that invest... but it doesn't lose it, either. Canadian model seems to be taking an interest in it, too.
I don't know how to post the answer I got, but I asked "Will a hurricane strike the US this year?", and the answer I got was "It's a certainty".
543. FLBoy

My predictions are it will be a mix between an '06 and an '05 season. I predict 16-20 storms. Half of the storms will go out to sea and other ones will either affect land someway or not go out to sea. It won't though, like 2005 have as many cat 5's; probably a lot of t-s's.
1 in May
1 in June
1 in July
5 in August
8 in September
1 in November
2 in December/January

None in October...

Tropical Storms--12
Hurricane(s) cat 1--0
Hurricane(s) cat 2--1
Hurricane(s) cat 3--4
Hurricane(s) cat 4--2
Hurricane(s) cat 5--0

Main Targets:

GOM COAST: 4 ts's and 1 cat2
WEST FL COAST: 1 cat4
GEORGIA AND CENTRAL TO NORTHERN FL EASTERN COAST: 1 ts
SOUTH FLORIDA: 1 cat3 and 1 cat4
CAROLINAS:N/A
NEW ENGLAND: N/A





Even though some of my forecasts have been wrong before, I doubt this one will be totally wrong..lol..I give my forecast 45-50% chance of it being three-fourts correct. But in '04 my forecast was 95% right. So..yeah...but that's just my forecast


In 2006, this was my forecast: 15 storms

12 ts's, 1 cat1, 1 cat2, 0 cat3, 0 cat4, 1 cat5

It was about half wrong...but that was just some of my forecast.
hey all... did any of you read the independent hurricane outlook? their sayin no cyclones will affect the US this season? kinda hard to beleive huh? anyone have input?
Posted By: stormhank at 3:30 AM GMT on May 26, 2007.

hey all... did any of you read the independent hurricane outlook? their sayin no cyclones will affect the US this season? kinda hard to beleive huh? anyone have input?


this one DONT GO BY THERE FORCAST and now i will drop this

img src="http://www.sunherald.com/201/story/61796.html" width="466px" height="325px" alt="Blank" />

Design complete for Katrina monument
Fundraising for fountain continues
By J.R. WELSH
baybureau@aol.com

BAY ST. LOUIS --
Design is complete and fundraising continues for a $1.5 million Hurricane Katrina volunteers memorial to be built at the Interstate 10 welcome center in Hancock County.

The imposing memorial, consisting of a walkway, pool and wave-shaped fountain, will rise 30 feet in the air, exactly the height of the storm surge that swamped the county in 2005. The memorial is being built in gratitude to the thousands of volunteers who have come from across the country to help in hurricane relief.

The project is possible through the unpaid work of county residents and businesses. It was the brainchild of James Seglund, chairman of the Katrina Volunteers Memorial Fund and was designed by Helios Design Group, a subsidiary of JM Digital Corp. The company created the design at no charge.

The memorial will be a 30-foot-tall obelisk made of dark marble or granite, broken down into layers signifying each coastal city affected by the hurricane. A copper-lined channel will run down the front, directing water from the top into a mosaic-tiled pool. The pool will be rimmed with granite slabs and surrounded by a four-foot-high wall.

"We have been waiting to get a cost estimate on the fountain," Seglund said Thursday. "We have that now, and serious fundraising is under way."

"We think the end result will be a constant beacon of gratitude and continue to make an impression on future generations," said Patrick Bruno, art director of Helios Design Group.

An initial fundraiser was held in March at the Diamondhead Country Club to kick off the effort.

Seglund said donations to the memorial construction can be made to the Katrina Volunteers Foundation through the Gulf Coast Community Foundation and mailed to P.O. Box 2984, Gulfport, Miss., 39505. More information is available at 255-3451.
And as far as shear goes, a storm only needs to find an area with low shear:
It's definitely lower than it was last year...When do the storms begin to roll off the African coast? That's when things start cookin'...Regarding Stormhank's question...did any of you read the independent hurricane outlook? their sayin no cyclones will affect the US this season? kinda hard to beleive huh? anyone have input?That was battered around a bit earlier and the general concensus was, 'wait and see...it's still too early to tell.'
well that rant went too far
lol what a gerk
Next storm could be worse, so prepare early

By MELISSA M. SCALLAN

GULFPORT --
The next storm that hits South Mississippi could be worse than Hurricane Katrina.

State and local emergency managers know residents don't want to hear that, but this area was compromised by Katrina, so a less powerful, smaller storm still could do as much damage, and people need to prepare early.

Some of the problems are more open spaces and fewer buildings and trees to absorb impact. Thousands of residents are more at risk because they live in FEMA trailers or mobile homes.

Mike Womack, director of the Mississippi Emergency Management Agency, said he has two concerns - people who didn't get damage in Katrina and those who have moved here since the storm and don't know how to prepare, including immigrants and volunteers.

"Now we have people who think because their home didn't get water in Katrina, they don't have to worry about any storm," he said. "We also have new residents, and they have no idea how to prepare for a hurricane."

Brian Adam, emergency manager in Hancock County, agreed.

"The Camille syndrome was definitely a problem for all of us," he said, referring to 1969's Hurricane Camille.

Womack and the emergency managers in the coastal counties met with the Sun Herald on Tuesday and talked about what they learned from Katrina and what residents need to do to survive a storm.

They are pleading with people to prepare an evacuation plan and put together a hurricane supply kit before the season starts, so they don't have to scramble if a storm threatens.

The three counties work together to determine when to call for an evacuation, but emergency officials said it can be tricky because one county may need to evacuate before another, depending on the location of the storm and where it will hit first.

And no one can force residents to evacuate, said Butch Loper, emergency manager in Jackson County.

"There's no teeth in words," he said. "You can't make people leave their homes if they don't want to."

Womack encouraged residents to know alternate highways in case main arteries, such as U.S. 49 and Interstate 10, become clogged with traffic.

"The more we can educate them that there are alternate routes, the better," he said.

Residents need to know what flood zone and evacuation zone they live in, and the two aren't necessarily the same, even though both are labeled A, B and C.

All three emergency managers said they have begun using geography to describe what areas need to be evacuated, not just the zone letters.

Womack also recommends people know what storm surge zone they live in. These are labeled as Category 1-5, the same as hurricanes.

GULFPORT --
Since Katrina, residents also should know what the elevation of their home is. Loper recommends that if people don't live at least 30 feet above sea level, they should evacuate.

Rupert Lacy, deputy director of the Harrison County Emergency Management Agency, recommends 35 feet.

Part of the problem, he said, is the silt in the Mississippi Sound, which makes the water more shallow and could make storm surge higher.

"We have not had any winter storms to shift that silt," he said. "And the barrier islands are shifting, so we could get Category 3 winds and Category 4 storm surge."

The emergency managers said they don't want people to become complacent because no hurricanes hit land last year.

"I think this year they may be apt to take our advice and move quicker," Lacy said. "We're going to be quicker for the first storm, but we're going to get some complacency again, especially if we have some near misses."
I have a feeling they said that before, exact same words too.
I kinda agree with Hurricane911 but not that harshly. We shouldnt really be predicting time to time. GOD really knows whats coming!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Just talk about a hurricane specifically when one forms.
557. IKE
I've read about 100 predictions...it does all run together after awhile.

911 was vulgar about it. I reported him.

Here's the 00 UTC NAM...1004mb low east of the Yucatan in 84 hours...Link
This 1004mb low kinda scares me.
559. IKE
The NAM is unreliable...worth watching though.
I see. kinda looks really legit. GFS is so disorganized, and I cant even tell whats forming and not.
561. IKE
Just keep an eye or 2 on the Caribbean...lots of clouds down there.
562. RobM
Hello everyone...I have lurked here for a while but this is my first post. I'm Rob Mann, one of the authors of the IWIC forecast which I see has garnered a lot of attention here today. I would like to make a few clarifications regarding that forecast.

First, I'd like to gratefully thank everyone who has read the forecast, whether you disagree with it or not. We always welcome constructive criticism.

Second, no I am not delusional. I see several people questioning our no US landfall call. While it is understandable that one would be skeptical of such a prediction...some of the comments I've seen go quite a bit further than that. Yes, it would be very rare for no US landfalls to happen, especially in an active season. I am aware of that. But think for a minute...was there a precedent for 2005? What about 2004? Every hurricane season is unique...and just about every hurricane season brings a new record or characteristic to the table.

In the case of 2007, we truely have not seen any overwhelming signals for a landfall along any section of the US coastline. Believe me, I was surprised by the implication and did numerous double-checks. But it is indeed backed up in our data and explained thoroughly in the forecast. Whether one believes what is presented is completely up to choice. But to shoot down the forecasters as "silly" or "bozos" just because of the weird prediction is really hard for me to understand. I'm sure people would've said the same things if someone forecasted 28 named storms and 4 major US landfalls in 2005.

However, I'm not sure where people are coming with the idea that this is just for "attention"...IWIC has never been picked up by a media outlet and is hardly a huge general public source for weather information. Our target audience is other weather hobbyists who should 1)know not to use forecasts in life-death situations, and 2)realize they need to be prepared regardless. We aim to be accurate, not stand out. Moreover, the fact that we're unofficial is stated in the introduction as well as in our disclaimer which is easily accessible at the left menu.

So with all that said, I hope everyone will wait a couple months before calling bust on any forecast. It will certainly be interesting to see after all this. As minor imperfections are to be expected in such a long-range outlook, it would not be surprising to see 1-2 weak TS landfalls along the US. If it's worse than that and I bust horribly I'll take it like a man and work to improve the methodology...because it will always be our long-term goal to make accurate landfall forecasts possible. Some may think that's crazy...maybe it is...but you don't know til you keep trying, right?

Best regards to all!
Rob Mann
hey rob are u willing to wager money on your prediction. i am willing to bet any amount of money that at least 2 hurricanes will hit the U.S., any amount.
565. RobM
I've already wagered enough money for one year. lol

Rob
Yeah i am not a geek................ sk8 4 life
Hurricane911 seemed like he had a few things die up his rear
was wondering when this little guy would come



Caribbean is gettin bubbly

I have never ..hardly..seen a GOM Hurricane.or strong TS..not impact somewhere. Albeit dissapation can occur ,a storm of some magnitude.,once enters or forms in the GOM. Is landlocked. It has to strike somewhere.
Good morning....

Predictions are just simply that predictions and no matter what the outlooks are calling for everyone living in a hurricane prone area should always prepare for the worst and hope for the best.You should never base your preparation on predictions cause its very important to keep in mind that even a quite season can turn out bad.Its not the number of storms that form that matters its the ones the actually make landfall that have the greatest impact.Nobody knows what is going takeplace this season and the best option is just prepare and have that plan in place.Adrian

It only takes one.
Morning y'all ☺

Rob, While I understand and agree with some of your statements and appreciate the overall goal to make long term forecasts. What I disagree with is the over confidence which many of these forecasts are written with. Many times they are stated more as fact then statistical geusses, which is what they are. Should, could, would, may, are all excellent terms when discussing the factors that will effect the weather patterns for the next few months. One thing I have always loved from the NHC's discussions is their willingness to use the term low confidence.

That said, I have my doubts about the weakeness in the high remaining there for the entire season. I am geussing that we will see it bridging together a bit more by early to mid July.
576. FLBoy
That took guts for Rob Mann to pop in here and make that comment about their seasonal forecast. Gotta respect him for that.
For everyone's sake......except the Leewards and folks in the Yucatan.....I hope their forecast is correct!
We're probably several decades away a least from being able to accurately predict landfalls several months in advance of the season.
Well Done to Rob for popping into the lion's den early this morning and he's right we shouldn't really pounce on their forecast before the season starts.

Have a fantastic Saturday everybody!!!!
579. FLBoy
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL

.FORECAST...
A MID AND UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA AND THE ADJACENT GULF AND ATLANTIC WATERS WILL
WEAKEN...AND GIVE WAY TO A FAIRLY ZONAL AND BENIGN FLOW ALOFT OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MEANWHILE...A SURFACE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE
EXTENDING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES WILL SLOWLY ERODE...AS
LOWER PRESSURE LINGERS IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN.
DESPITE NO APPARENT
MID AND UPPER LEVEL ASCENT AND SOME WARMING ALOFT...AMPLE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE FLUX AND CONVERGENCE WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED
POPS...ESPECIALLY IN THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING. TEMPERATURES
WILL SLOWLY MODERATE AS WINDS SLOWLY ABATE.

.EXTENDED PERIOD(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
BOTH GFS AND ECMWF MAINTAIN A WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES...BUT ECMWF DEVELOPS A BAROCLINIC TYPE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
CONVERSELY...GFS ONLY REVEALS A COUPLE OF LOW LEVEL PERTURBATIONS
WILL MIGRATE WESTWARD AND THROUGH OUR REGION...WITH THE FIRST
UNDULATION PASSING THROUGH TUESDAY. THE SECOND DISTURBANCE TRACKS
ACROSS LATE THURSDAY AND EARLY FRIDAY.
580. FLBoy
Miami and Tampa offices are forecasting the high to remain and possibly strengthen further while Melbourne is 50/50 between them and Key West.

That being the case I am going to call for further erosion of the high and a moisture return to at least half the state next week! lol
581. FLBoy
PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
452 AM EDT SAT MAY 26 2007

VALID 12Z WED MAY 30 2007 - 12Z SAT JUN 02 2007

FROM THE SRN PLAINS EWD... A NUMBER OF MODELS SUGGEST
THAT SOME SRN PLAINS ENERGY PERHAPS IN COMBINATION WITH OTHER
ENERGY OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO/NWRN CARIBBEAN MAY SUPPORT SOME
TYPE OF SFC SYSTEM AFFECTING THE GULF/SERN CONUS.
LOW
PREDICTABILITY OF SUCH A FEATURE... ESPECIALLY GIVEN SOME
DEPENDENCE UPON HOW THE TROF TO THE N EVOLVES... FAVORS A
CONSERVATIVE APPROACH SIMILAR TO THE 00Z/18Z ENSEMBLE MEANS.


It appears the models have the scent of a baroclinic type system in the GOM next week. For once the GFS is not responsible!
584. FLBoy
Good morning StormW.
Hey storm....

Watching that convection bubble up down there in the SW caribbean.Not really buying the 1000mb low with the NAM on its lastest run.
NC State Seasonal Forecast

CSU Seasonal Forecast

Geuss we will know in about four or five months how everyone did ☺
We should remain rather dry down here across south florida this weekend as most of the tropical rains should remain to our south.Watch out for those rip-currents at the beaches today as winds will slowly come down later today.
Great to hear from you hope you have a great weekend.
MissesEsterhouse, This is not the place to post these images. Please stop doing it.

Thanks
Please report MEh's posts.

If they are hid on your screen, don't look at them unless you want to see some real nasty stuff.

They weren't hid on my screen, but they are now...lol

Morning TS2☺ Just trying to give everyone a little warning. That is not a good way to start the day :~(
Please report MEh's posts.

If they are hid on your screen, don't look at them unless you want to see some real nasty stuff.

This is completely uncalled for.
Some people never learn.

G'morning SJ, no it's not a great way to start the day especially if your having or had your breakfast...lol
reported the poster and hid the posts...
sick!!

I really don't understand people like that. :-(
Good morning all

Anonymity brings out the worst in some people
Surface map W Sat

Not sure I want any now TS2 ☺
They've no doubt watched too much gory movies...lmbo
Well this is a blog that anyone who signs up can get into. But still don't understand why that is necessary. And schools are getting out as summer approaches so this ends up getting worse.
There will be more stuff like that during Hurricane Season because that seems the time when this site gets busy.

and then there will be STORMTOP..lol
I guess I'll come back when Admin has permanently removed this @#$%
If you minus the post ..it will dissapear.
Done that pat.

Now i hope Aaron comes online soon cause no one can put up with this all day.
I've been checking buoy 42058 for the past two days and there is no read out of obs from it. Does anyone know why that is ?
I'll be back later.
Florida long overdue for big storms

Jacksonville: 127 years. Tampa: 86 years. Sarasota: 63 years. Fort Lauderdale: 57 years. Miami: 15 years.

That's how long it has been since those major metropolitan areas of Florida -- the state most vulnerable to hurricanes -- have been hit by a Category 3 or higher storm.

It cannot last. All are historically overdue for an assault by a major hurricane, with sustained winds above 110 mph and even stronger gusts.

''It's just a matter of time,'' said Eric Blake, a hurricane specialist at the National Hurricane Center in West Miami-Dade. ``Whether it's 10 years, 20 years, 50 years or tomorrow, we just don't know.''

The six-month hurricane season begins Friday, but the next deadly hurricane catastrophe is developing right now, forecasters and emergency managers say. And Florida is most at risk.

Enormous numbers of people who have never experienced the colossal, life-threatening power of hurricanes are flocking to coastal cities around the state. More than 17 million Floridians live along the coast.

''Katrina showed us that a large loss of life is still possible in a hurricane,'' Blake said of the 2005 storm that slapped South Florida, then strengthened and wrecked New Orleans and much of the upper Gulf Coast.

''Floridians certainly are not invulnerable,'' he said. ``If people don't heed evacuation orders, there could be a significant loss of life in this state.''

Forty percent of all U.S. hurricanes hit Florida, according to records at the hurricane center. All five of the costliest hurricanes in history hit Florida, in some cases along with other states. Five of the 10 most intense U.S. hurricanes hit Florida.

And even with all of that, most Florida cities -- with ever-rising populations -- are long overdue for a strike by a major Category 3, 4 or 5 hurricane.

Since reliable record-keeping began in 1851, a major hurricane has blasted or approached Miami-Dade County an average of once every nine years, Broward County once every 10 years, Tampa once every 23 years, the Sarasota-Bradenton area once every 19 years and the Jacksonville area once every 28 years.

But Miami-Dade hasn't been pummeled by a major hurricane since Andrew ravaged the southern part of the county in 1992, Broward has avoided that horror since 1950, Tampa since 1921, the Sarasota-Bradenton area since 1944, and Jacksonville since 1880.

GEOGRAPHY TO BLAME

One day, each one of those cities will run out of luck, experts said. The state's geography offers no other possibility.

Florida dangles into the hurricane zone like a giant kick-me sign, and its 1,200 miles of coast produce an inviting target for storm surge, the dome of water that accompanies a hurricane's core ashore and poses the greatest threat to life.

Sooner or later, Blake said, every city -- every spot -- along Florida's coast will get hit by a major hurricane. ''It's inevitable,'' he said.

Blake is the lead author of a recently updated study that examines the nation's history of hurricanes and its current vulnerability. It found that the danger stretches across the entire Gulf and East coasts, from Brownsville, Texas, to the northeastern tip of Maine.

Millions of people have moved to those coasts in the last 50 years, and 85 percent of current coastal residents have never experienced a major hurricane, according to several studies.

''It's quite a demographic challenge,'' said Bill Proenza, the veteran National Weather Service forecaster and manager who replaced Max Mayfield in January as hurricane center director.

Here are some other sobering -- even frightening -- findings of the report co-authored by Blake:

The two deadliest hurricanes struck Galveston, Texas, in 1900 and the Palm Beach-Lake Okeechobee area in 1928, but even now -- after decades of forecast and communications improvements -- massive loss of life can occur.

Just two years ago, Katrina killed more than 1,500 people, mostly in Louisiana and Mississippi.

''It shows we still have a lot of work to do when it comes to educating people about the danger of storm surge, which is still the No. 1 way of people losing their lives in a hurricane,'' Blake said.

The two areas in Florida that most concern him are the densely populated, low-lying Tampa Bay region and the thin, delicate chain of Florida Keys.

''In the Keys, there's just no place to go,'' he said.

Katrina ranks as the costliest natural disaster in U.S. history, inflicting $81 billion of damage. Most of that occured in New Orleans and elsewhere along the upper Gulf Coast, but some occured in South Florida -- Katrina's first point of attack.

FLIP SIDE OF GROWTH

The record 2004 and 2005 seasons produced seven of the nine costliest hurricanes, demonstrating the consequences of frenzied coastal development. Simply stated, hurricanes now have more things to destroy.

Exhibit A: When Andrew struck Miami-Dade and other areas, including Broward, it caused $26.5 billion in damage. If the same storm struck the same places now, just 15 years later, it would produce $58.5 billion in damage -- due to population growth, inflation and new development.

Exhibit B: If the Great Miami Hurricane of 1926, a Category 4 storm that directly struck Miami Beach and downtown Miami and swamped Hollywood and Fort Lauderdale, was repeated today, it would cause $164 billion in damage, twice that of Katrina.

Exhibit C: In October 2005, Hurricane Wilma generated only Category 1 and 2 winds in Broward and Miami-Dade, and it still managed to inflict $20.6 billion in damage and become the third costliest hurricane in U.S. history.

During the last 40 years, the average hurricane season has produced 11 tropical storms that grew into six hurricanes, two of them major. This season, experts predict 13 to 17 named storms that will become seven to 10 hurricanes, three to five of them major.

Since record-keeping began, an average of nearly two hurricanes have hit the U.S. coast every year and one major hurricane has struck the coast every other year. And they really like Florida.

Of the 279 hurricanes that reached the U.S. mainland since 1851, 113 hit Florida. Worse, 37 of the 96 major hurricanes walloped the state. No other state comes close to either mark.

The statistics that show many areas in Florida are on borrowed time, called ''return periods,'' which should be treated with caution because they are long-term averages and reflect not much more than good (or bad) luck.

They do reveal, however, how long some cities have gone without experiencing a hurricane, as development thrived, populations mushroomed and complacency might have set in.

Tampa, for instance, has not been hit by any hurricane since 1946 or by a major storm since 1921.

The long-term averages suggest that a hurricane should strike it or come within 86 miles every six years -- and a major storm every 23 years.

But South Floridians shouldn't point fingers at other areas:

Miami is statistically six years overdue for a Category 3, 4 or 5 storm. Fort Lauderdale? Overdue by 47 years.

Hurricane23... I don't like your article. lol
Me either but the reality is another andrew somewere in florida is not a matter of if but when.
"It could happen tomorrow"
NA
Don't forget about New York City which ranks 3rd in most likely to get hit by a hurricane.
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans la
316 am CDT Sat may 26 2007


Discussion...
not much has changed in forecast thinking since yesterday
afternoon's package. High pressure continues to dominate the short
term. The only real concern over the next 48 hours will be the
persistent easterly winds. A coastal Flood Watch remains in effect
from Southwest Pass of the Mississippi River to the Bay of Saint
Louis Mississippi where water levels combined with high tides may
create some coastal flooding issues.
An early reminder here that the season is nearing..Link
Morning Pat.
Hurricane23, you are right on the mark with your post. People need to keep in mind that Andrew was a very, very small hurricane. A lot of damage was done in a narrow strip of Dade county.

My brother is in same house in Ft. Lauderdale as when Andrew hit. The winds were not a problem there. Here in Gainesville there was no wind & not a cloud in the sky. You get a large storm like Hugo, Floyd, or Frances category 4 or above & you are looking at $100 billion in damage for a Dade/Broward County landfall.

I think the Cedar Key area is overdue for a hurricane as well. I think that area averages one every 9 years or so but the last hurricane to come near that was Elena in 1985.

I made a post yeasterday about Florida not having any private insurance companies in the near future. This is a real possibility if we keep getting cat 3+ storms causing $25 billion in damage. The building code needs to be upped right away but I think it is going to take a $50 billion hurricane for law makers to make the building code more strict. We all know the big one will eventually come & the current contruction will not hold up.
A major hurricane making landfall in Cedar Key would basically be the worst possible landfall for the Tampa Bay area. It would put the SE quadrant right over Tampa Bay and the surge would be a nightmare.
You're welcome Storm. Have you noticed the drop in shear in the GOM? Just a couple of days ago, it was as high as 70-80kts. Now, there are a couple of pockets of 30kt shear. Still too hostile for development, but I believe we may be seeing a shift in the pattern.
Gainesville not sure what you can do anymore than we do here in charlotte county as far as building codes go have any ideas .I am a building contractor and interested in hearing what you think
The weakness in the sub tropical ridge looks like it wants to start a weakening trend towards the end of THIS 500mb-Z ANIMATION.
Posted By: HURRICANE911 at 4:01 AM GMT on May 26, 2007. (hide)
New here. Seems to me you people don't know shit from Adam. Weather changes every second of every day and all you people talk about is a storm is or is not going to hit U.S. mainland. Are you guys this stupid to say one will or will not. Maybe some of you just need to sit on the sideline and stop giving your stupid predictions because none of your are correct. Nobody can say that a storm will hit or will not 100% so why say so. Just making yourself look a stupid geek. Enjoy the Hurricane season you geeks.



Hmm...just wondering why he's on this blog then??...Also wonering how long it took him to write that "brilliant" speech. lol
Hello, friends.

Link
Well, there are always going to be assclowns on these blogs. Aaron has done an outstanding job of trying to police it as best he can, but you're not going to stop people 100%. Besides, we are all adults here and can handle ourselves.
whats that mess above the Central american region as well as the mess located near Florida?
NAM is still showing a 1004mb low at the 84 hour mark.

Link
is something brewing in the sw caribbean. there seems to be a spin at 13.8n 80w. maybe this is what nam is predicting. we will wait and see at the 84 hr mark
Interesting discussion from TPC this morning...

FROM THE SRN PLAINS EWD... A NUMBER OF MODELS SUGGEST THAT SOME
SRN PLAINS ENERGY PERHAPS IN COMBINATION WITH OTHER ENERGY OVER
THE GULF OF MEXICO/NWRN CARIBBEAN MAY SUPPORT SOME TYPE OF SFC
SYSTEM AFFECTING THE GULF/SERN CONUS. LOW PREDICTABILITY OF SUCH
A FEATURE... ESPECIALLY GIVEN SOME DEPENDENCE UPON HOW THE TROF TO
THE N EVOLVES... FAVORS A CONSERVATIVE APPROACH SIMILAR TO THE
00Z/18Z ENSEMBLE MEANS. THIS WILL BE LOOKED AT CLOSER FOR AFTN
FINALS AS GFS/UKMET/CANADIAN AND ECMWF ALL ORIGINATE THIS SYSTEM
FROM A DISTURBANCE N AND NE OF PANAMA WHERE THERE IS AT LEAST SOME
HINT OF CIRCULATION AND CURRENT CONVECTION. EARLY LOOK FAVORS A
UKMET SCENARIO BRINGING A DISTURBANCE ACROSS SRN FL THEN NEWD.
WILL NOT DEPICT THIS UNTIL LATER EVALUATION
.
Stoormfury- I believe this is what the NAM is predicting there. Currently, it is in a favorable shear environment and the SST's are more than warm enough. The shear to its north is still too hostile, but it has been forecast to start relaxing as we approach the end of the month.
Very interesting 23. There is some spin associated with this. They may very well decide to invest this before the weekend is out.
647. IKE
Here's the 12 UTC NAM...has a 1000mb low which stays out over the Caribbean waters...could get interesting folks..Link
649. IKE
The 00 UTC CMC spins up a low...has it heading toward Florida...turns it NE over the big bend. Some of the other models try to develop something too.
650. RL3AO
I still cant believe it didnt get called a TD yesterday.
Looks pretty healthy this morning. We may have an invest from this this weekend.
heck with the invest, South Florida may finally get some decent rain.
653. IKE
3rd time trying to post this...

Hopefully the entire state will..including up here in the panhandle.

I see a spin...around 12N, 80W...but all of the deep convection is well east of there...around 75W...
654. IKE
I see another spin around 19N, 86W...appears to be moving west toward the Yucatan.
655. ryang
Hey All... check my blog... seems like bad weather forming!!
Bring on the rain!
Death to the trolls!


My new warcry.....
657. FLBoy
Carib surface analysis.

Surface forecast for tomorrow....5/27

658. MZT
Things are bubbling up pretty well in the EPac this morning.

90E morning of May 26
I second that....."Death to the Trolls"!!
From JustCoasting:

Gainesville not sure what you can do anymore than we do here in charlotte county as far as building codes go have any ideas .I am a building contractor and interested in hearing what you think

For starters, building houses & other properties that cost more per square foot is always a tough sell. Builders don't want to do it & people don't want to pay for it. We are at a point when it will cost more in the long run NOT to build structures better. For example, investing $40,000 more for a 2,000 SQ Ft house might seem unreasonable at first glance. What if doing so will save you $6,000 or more per year in insurance costs? You earn your money back in less than 7 years. The 40K # was just pulled out of thin air as an example of how the current mind set is. I am hoping that this number is much less. The current active cycle may last another 30 years so insurance costs may go up significantly from here.

A good idea would be for Governer Crist to get structural experts together from both private & public sources. There are probably dozens of Engineering Colleges in the SE alone. The minimum standard should be that houses be able to withstand cat 3 hurricanes with minumal damage. In more hurricane prone areas of the state we should up that to at least cat 4. There should be a sense of urgency getting the best intellectual minds together in reaching a consensus on what needs to be done.

It comes down to this: Pay now for better structures or pay out annually with higher propery insurance. I think it will be far more painful for people to pay out for Insurance & the deductibles when actual damage is done.

Here is one idea I have that people like to dump on: do away with shingle roofs. I saw way too much roof damage in Palm Beach & Broward Counties after Wilma. Keep in mind that this was only a category 2 storm. Blue tarps where everywhere. I am thinking that we should make the roofs out of either lightweight concrete or some other solid material & then spray on a rubberized like coating on top of it. I am also thinking to going back to block houses exclusively as opposed to wood frame ones. Hurricane shutters for windows are a must. Here in Gainesville I don't see any hurricane shutters anywhere.

I feel there is no political will to change the current building codes in the state. To use an analogy: the existing housing in the state of Florida is like another 9-11 waiting to happen. Not being an alarmist but a strong cat 4 or 5 hurricane has the potential to cause $100 billion + in damages to the Tampa area or the SE Florida coast. Unfortunately, this may be the only thing that can change the buiding codes in this state.
SW Carib....those thunderstorms are well removed from the 'circulation' there but if moisture can be pulled from them and placed around the low then something could develop. The visible sat. is over that area is quite interesting.
662. FLBoy
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONS FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 300 PM EDT FRI MAY 25 2007

6-10 DAY OUTLOOK VALID FOR MAY 31 - JUN 04, 2007


THE GFS PREDICTS THAT THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS WILL PHASE... WITH A MODERATE TROUGH AXIS CENTERED OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE ECMWF MEANWHILE FORECASTS MORE PHASING OF THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS THAN IT DID YESTERDAY... AND A MORE AMPLIFIED RIDGE-TROUGH PATTERN OVER THE CONUS. THESE FORECASTS WOULD BENEFIT THE SOUTHEAST US GREATLY... USHERING IN MOIST AIR AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. THIS WOULD CERTAINLY HELP MITIGATE THE DROUGHT AND WILD FIRE ISSUES OVER THE REGION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL STILL MODERATE THE GFS PATTERN SOMEWHAT... BUT LEANING EVEN MORE TOWARDS THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECASTS. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS INCLUDING THE GREAT PLAINS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND THE ATLANTIC COAST REGIONS.
Tried to make the map as compact as possible, but still make it readable. I know how some react to massive photos, so tried to be reasonable with the width and height of it.
did a good job!
hey storm junkie-what are the dates of each pic? is one today and one last year and if so which one. thanks. todd