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Brazilian tropical/subtropical storm deserves a name; tornadoes rip Arkansas

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:09 PM GMT on March 11, 2010

The unnamed South Atlantic tropical/subtropical cyclone (90Q) off the coast of Brazil continues to spin slowly out to sea, and is not a threat to any land areas. The storm, just the 7th tropical or subtropical cyclone on record in the South Atlantic, has a well-defined surface circulation, top wind speeds near minimum tropical storm force (40 mph), a surface pressure near 1004 mb, and a modest amount of heavy thunderstorm activity on its south side. Strong upper-level winds from the northeast are creating about 20 knots of wind shear over the storm, keeping the northeast side of the circulation exposed to view. Sea surface temperatures are about 25.5°C, which is about 1°C below what is typically needed to support a tropical storm. The storm is headed southeastward out to sea at about 10 mph, and will lose its tropical characteristics and get absorbed by a frontal system by Saturday.


Figure 1. Morning visible satellite image of the Brazilian unnamed tropical/subtropical storm.

When the storm formed two days ago, it began as a cold-cored system aloft, with a warm core at the surface, making it a hybrid subtropical storm. Yesterday, the entire core of the storm warmed enough for it to be worthy of consideration for tropical storm status. Tropical and subtropical storms are so rare in the South Atlantic that there is no official naming of depressions or storms done. The cyclone had top winds of at least 35 mph this morning at 7am EST as seen on an ASCAT pass, and satellite estimates of the storm's intensity have held steady at 40 mph (minimum subtropical storms strength) for the past 12 hours. ASCAT winds tend to be biased a little low at this speed range, so 40 mph--minimum tropical storm strength--is probably the best estimate of the winds. Phase space diagrams from Florida State University are showing that the storm has grown less tropical (warm-cored) in nature over the past 12 hours. When compared to similar systems that have developed in the North Atlantic that have been named, I definitely think today's storm deserves a name. The World Meteorological Organization should act to come up with a list of names for the South Atlantic, since these storms have the potential to cause considerable death and destruction along the South American coast, and deserve to receive the extra attention naming would provide.

South Atlantic tropical storm history
Brazil has had only one landfalling tropical cyclone in its history, Cyclone Catarina of March 2004. Catarina is one of only six known tropical or subtropical cyclones to form in the South Atlantic, and the only one to reach hurricane strength. Today's storm is probably the fourth strongest tropical/subtropical storm on record in the South Atlantic, behind Hurricane Catarina and an unnamed February 2006 storm that may have attained wind speeds of 65 mph, and a subtropical storm that brought heavy flooding to the coast of Uruguay in January 2009.. Tropical cyclones rarely form in the South Atlantic Ocean, due to strong upper-level wind shear, cool water temperatures, and the lack of an initial disturbance to get things spinning (no African waves or Intertropical Convergence Zone exist in the proper locations in the South Atlantic to help spawn tropical storms). Today's storm is located close to where Catarina formed.

Climate change and South Atlantic storms
It is uncertain whether climate change may cause an increase in South Atlantic tropical storms in the future. While today's storm formed over waters that were about 1°C above average in temperature, Catarina in 2004 formed over waters that were 0.5°C cooler than average. Sea surface temperature is not the main limiting factor inhibiting these storms, wind shear is. How climate change might change wind shear over South America has not been well-studied.

Tornadoes rip Arkansas, Louisiana
It's March, and that means we can expect severe weather. Last night, one tornado was reported in Louisiana and four in Arkansas, in association with a powerful low pressure system tracking slowly across the nation's midsection. The most damaging tornado hit Cleburne, Arkansas, destroying several houses and blowing down trees and power lines. Three serious injuries were reported. The storms also dropped baseball-sized hail near Plain Dealing and Texarkana, Arkansas. The severe weather has pushed east, and NOAA's Storm Prediction Center is forecasting a "slight" chance of severe weather over Florida today, plus portions of Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama.

Links to follow:
Interactive tornado map
Severe weather page


Figure 2. Severe weather forecast for today from the NOAA Storm Prediction Center.

Jeff Masters
Tornado, Saline County, AR
Tornado, Saline County, AR

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Bring on Severe Weather Season '10....
Tornado warning for Ocala in Marion County, FL. A serious situation maybe about to get underway in C FL right now as storms are intensifying off the west coast of FL.
As heating is well underway, finally. I expect this event to be more of a lion than past events for the peninsula. Not so sure of a mass severe event but, surely packing more of a punch.
Issued by The National Weather Service
Melbourne, FL
10:09 am EST, Thu., Mar. 11, 2010


... INCREASINGLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT NORTHERN BREVARD COUNTY... LAKE COUNTY... ORANGE COUNTY... NORTHERN OSCEOLA COUNTY... SEMINOLE COUNTY... AND VOLUSIA COUNTY THROUGHOUT THIS MORNING...

AT 10 AM EST... NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED SEVERAL STORMS GROWING IN INTENSITY OVER THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA... ESPECIALLY FROM NEAR ZELLWOOD AND ORLANDO... TO DELAND AND BARBERVILLE... TO NEAR ORMOND... MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH. OTHERS MAY AFFECT LOCATIONS NEAR SANFORD AND TITUSILLE.

ALSO... A SEVERE STORM HAS BEEN INDICATED OVER MARION COUNTY HAVING THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE A TORNADO. A SIMILAR THREAT WILL GROW SOUTH AND EASTWARD TO BECOME A SIGNIFICANT CONCERN FOR THE MENTIONED AREAS.

PLEASE LISTEN CLOSELY FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS AND BE READY TO ACT QUICKLY GIVEN THAT BOTH STORM GROWTH AND MOVEMENT ARE LIKELY TO BE VERY FAST.

THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES AND GUSTY WINDS OF 55 MPH... WHICH CAN CAUSE UNSECURED OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND... SNAP TREE LIMBS OR CAUSE POWER OUTAGES. HOWEVER... THE CHANCE FOR A TORNADO IS ALSO A REAL CONCERN. SEEK SHELTER INDOORS UNTIL THE STORM PASSES.
Don't know if this was said in the last blog but a 7.2 and 6.9 magnitude earthquake struck Chile in the last hour.
"Climate change and South Atlantic storms
It is uncertain whether climate change may cause an increase in South Atlantic tropical storms in the future. While today's storm formed over waters that were about 1°C above average in temperature, Catarina in 2004 formed over waters that were 0.5°C cooler than average. Sea surface temperature is not the main limiting factor inhibiting these storms, wind shear is. How climate change might change wind shear over South America has not been well-studied."

Although I disagree with you on your stance this is a great point thanks for bringing it up.
Has anyone been tracking the possible floods in the midwest & north east ? thanks doc. 2010 here we come lets see what mother nature has in store for us I think it will be intresting to watch.
Since the SouthAtlantic is approaching the end of its summer, one might surmise that SouthAmerica is at the peak of its hurricane season.....if SouthAmerica had a hurricane season.
2004, 2006, 2009, and now 2010 brings to mind that it soon might.

If so, one might also expect that soon
"You [w]on't need [to be] a weatherman to know..."
"...the [cli]mes they are a-changin'."


someone killed just now on I-10 in walton co due to weather and also this :
Franklin County, Fla:

A gust of straight line winds gave a Franklin County Sheriff’s Deputy a wild ride this morning as the area was hit by heavy rain.

According to Mike Rundel, Coordinator for Franklin County Emergency Management, a Franklin County Sheriff’s Deputy radioed in that his car was spun “180 degrees” in what was thought to be a possible water spout or tornado but officials have determined was straight line winds.

“He got a wild ride,” Rundel said.

Rundel also said that the area, which has been blanked by between 2 and 4 inches of rain, has some minor flooding issues. Highway 98 is under water a Turkey Point and also at landark Village. Emergency Management officials have contacted the Department of Transportation about putting up signage warning motorists.



Read more: http://www.panhandleparade.com/index.php/mbb/article/franklin_county_hit_hard_by_heavy_rain_straight _line_winds/mbb7721933/#ixzz0hsoTtqdC
Magnitude 7.2 LIBERTADOR O'HIGGINS, CHILE
Thursday, March 11, 2010 at 14:39:48 UTC



Quoting JFLORIDA:
Magnitude 7.2 LIBERTADOR O'HIGGINS, CHILE
Thursday, March 11, 2010 at 14:39:48 UTC



This shows both earthquakes

Image and video hosting by TinyPic
Quoting RMCF:
Has anyone been tracking the possible floods in the midwest & north east ? thanks doc. 2010 here we come lets see what mother nature has in store for us I think it will be intresting to watch.


Flooding was noted in the US Hazards Assessment:

THE COMBINATION OF HEAVY RAINFALL, RUNOFF FROM SNOW MELT, AND SATURATED SOIL CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY TRIGGER FLOODING IN THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY, CENTRAL APPALACHIANS, MID-ATLANTIC, NORTHEAST AND NEW ENGLAND. FLOODING ALONG MAIN STEM RIVERS INCLUDING THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE POTOMAC COULD OCCUR. PLEASE MONITOR FLOOD STATEMENTS, WATCHES, AND WARNINGS FROM THE LOCAL NWS OFFICES.


Eastern Region Weather Offices have been having coordination calls on the possibility.
Hehe... thx Doc.

Well looks like my thinking wasn't too far off in regards the issue of a Tornado Watch for CFL:



MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0182
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0926 AM CST THU MAR 11 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL FL PENINSULA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 111526Z - 111630Z

TORNADO WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL FL
PENINSULA.

STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION APPEARS TO BE THE PRIMARY INSTIGATOR
IN ONGOING WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ACROSS THE NRN/CNTRL
PENINSULA...WWD INTO THE NERN GULF OF MEXICO. LATEST
SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY DEPICT A VERY CLEAR BACK EDGE TO THIS
ACTIVITY OVER THE NERN GOM WITH NE-SW ORIENTED BROKEN SQUALL LINE
PROGRESSING ESEWD AT ROUGHLY 20-25KT. THIS MOVEMENT WOULD SUGGEST
SUBSIDENCE WILL NOT OVERSPREAD THE WRN PENINSULA NORTH OF TPA UNTIL
AT LEAST 20Z. PRIOR TO THIS...GRADUAL BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING WILL
ENCOURAGE NEAR-SFC BASED UPDRAFTS SOUTH OF THE EXTENSIVE PRECIP
SHIELD AND WITH STRONG SHEAR IN PLACE DEEP ROTATION IS LIKELY.
GIVEN THAT ISOLATED SUPERCELLS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED...IT APPEARS
THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES MAY GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE MID DAY
INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE
TORNADO WATCH.

..DARROW.. 03/11/2010


ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX...

LAT...LON 29218408 29438075 27448008 27448323 28498568 29218408


LINK
The Pineapple Express is Pounding the South. Lots of rain coming!



I DO NOT LIKE THIS DRY SLOT NEAR THE PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA! This might become very severe during the day!


Central Florida needs to look out.

And another 6.0 rocks chile.
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1042 AM EST THU MAR 11 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSONVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
MARION COUNTY IN NORTHERN FLORIDA

* UNTIL 1130 AM EST

* AT 1042 AM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM OCALA AIRPORT TO SILVER SPRINGS SHORES...OR
ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 7 MILES WEST OF OCALA TO LYNNE...MOVING
EAST AT 30 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO OCALA
AIRPORT...MOSS BLUFF...OCALA...ANTHONY...SPARR...LYNNE...JUNIPER
SPRINGS...FORT MCCOY...SALT SPRINGS AND ORANGE SPRINGS.

Another 6.0 happened. So that makes a 7.2, a 6.9 and a 6.0 now within the last hour.
USGS Link
Tampa Bay Soundings.........LOOKS LIKE SEVERE WEATHER IS VERY POSSIBLE although the CAPE is not very high CURRENTLY. That might change during the day.



Good morning, Dr. Masters and bloggers.
I paused a moment before posting this.

Guess we didn't make it through without injuries, and I just saw this AP report of one fatality in the Cleburne County AR tornado.

A hard line sometimes, balancing the fascination with weather phenomena and the realization of how a weather event can change a human life in an instant.

Take care and be safe, those of you who may be under the gun today.
Tornado Watch #29

TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 29
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1100 AM EST THU MAR 11 2010

TORNADO WATCH 29 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM EST FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

FLC009-017-027-035-049-053-055-057-061-069-081-083-085-093-095-
097-101-103-105-111-115-117-119-127-112300-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0029.100311T1600Z-100311T2300Z/

FL
. FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BREVARD CITRUS DESOTO
FLAGLER HARDEE HERNANDO
HIGHLANDS HILLSBOROUGH INDIAN RIVER
LAKE MANATEE MARION
MARTIN OKEECHOBEE ORANGE
OSCEOLA PASCO PINELLAS
POLK SARASOTA SEMINOLE
ST. LUCIE SUMTER VOLUSIA
$$
Yup - Tornado watch up for the greater Tampa Bay area...
Oh Brother. I've got to drive from New Smyrna Beach to Sanford (Seminole County) NOW and then back up to South Daytona. Damn the bad luck! Not liking this.


Storm relative mean Radial Velocity
Statement as of 10:58 AM EST on March 11, 2010

... A Tornado Warning remains in effect until 1130 am EST for eastern
Marion County...

At 1058 am EST... Weather Service Doppler radar continued to indicate
a line of severe thunderstorms with strong rotation. These tornado
producing storms were located along a line extending from Ocala to
Lynne... moving east at 30 mph.

Other locations in the warning include but are not limited to
Anthony... Sparr... Lynne... Burbank... Juniper Springs... Fort McCoy...
Salt Springs... Orange Springs and Hog Valley.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

In addition to the tornado... this storm is capable of producing
quarter size hail and destructive straight line winds.

Seek shelter on the lowest floor of the building in an interior
hallway or room such as a closet. Use blankets or pillows to cover
your body and always stay away from windows.

If in Mobile homes or vehicles... evacuate them and get inside a
substantial shelter. If no shelter is available... lie flat in the
nearest ditch or other low spot and cover your head with your hands.

Report severe weather or damage to the nearest law enforcement agency
or your County emergency management.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 600 PM EST Thursday evening
for northeastern Florida.


Lat... Lon 2907 8201 2914 8218 2932 8222 2951 8197
2951 8185 2948 8183 2948 8178 2944 8178
2942 8174 2937 8174 2936 8167 2933 8168
2928 8164 2905 8163 2904 8165 2901 8165
time... Mot... loc 1558z 254deg 24kt 2921 8211 2915 8186
Good Morning to everyone! Looks like Central FL is "under the gun" as we speak.

Everyone in Central FL keep your eyes and ears open today!!
Link to the Klystron9 Radar if interested ...

http://www.baynews9.com/Klystron9.html
What the Hell caused this? A Rogue Wave maybe! That is over 30 Feet.!

Hurricane Season Could Be 'Extreme,' Forecaster Says


(March 11) -- AccuWeather.com, which just issued its early hurricane season forecast, not only believes that the 2010 season will be more active than last year, but the private company sees the potential for an "extreme season" with an above-normal threat all along the Atlantic and Gulf coasts.

The forecast was led by chief long-range meteorologist and hurricane forecaster Joe Bastardi, who believes that this year will be more like the 2008 hurricane season than the much quieter 2009 season. In 2008, there were 17 named storms, eight of which were hurricanes, including the major hurricane Ike that ravaged the upper Texas coast. In 2009, only two storms (one of which was a hurricane) made landfall, both along the Gulf Coast, making it the least active Atlantic hurricane season since 1997.
Quoting TampaSpin:
What the Hell caused this? A Rogue Wave maybe! That is over 30 Feet.!



Can I have a link thats odd.
Quoting TampaSpin:
What the Hell caused this? A Rogue Wave maybe! That is over 30 Feet.!



That's 0.10 meters....4 inches lol.
Quoting Levi32:


That's .l0 meters....4 inches lol.


Haha wow
Quoting Skepticall:


Can I have a link thats odd.


Link



Quoting Skepticall:


Can I have a link thats odd.


Nataional Data Bouy
Amazing what a decimal Point can do..
Well there is something abnormal outside of the usual cycle going on at that buoy though, even if it is small.

Quoting TampaSpin:
What the Hell caused this? A Rogue Wave maybe! That is over 30 Feet.!




It is 4.32 inches, not 30 feet.
Quoting Levi32:
Well there is something abnormal outside of the usual cycle going on at that buoy though:



Yea is that why its flashing on their site?
Quoting Skepticall:


Yea is that why its flashing on their site?


Yes, it is detecting something out of the ordinary. That is technically the tsunami activation alarm but that can't be what is causing it.
Quoting Levi32:
Well there is something abnormal outside of the usual cycle going on at that buoy though, even if it is small.




weird
Quoting Levi32:


That's 0.10 meters....4 inches lol.


My bad i read it wrong......i just seen it was triggered........LOL. Over analyzed it.......LOL
They have these things called "Ships"..which can displace the water column when passing near a Buoy,the NDBC ones have a habit of that.

MAYBE EVEN A BT or NAVY "Buoy Tender" did maintenance there on it as well.

Quoting Levi32:


Yes, it is detecting something out of the ordinary. That is technically the tsunami activation alarm but that can't be what is causing it.


Yea maybe some storms are out there and are making it blink. Or its like the day after tomorrow next we'll see a buoy off greenland acting up.
Quoting Patrap:
They have these things called "Ships"..which can displace the water column when passing near a Buoy,the NDBC ones have a habit of that.

MAYBE EVEN A BT or NAVY "Buoy Tender" did maintence there on it as well.



That's probably what it is. I think we're all just a bit jumpy after Chile.
ever hear of a boat wake?
50. JRRP
51. JRRP
Quoting Skepticall:


Yea maybe some storms are out there and are making it blink. Or its like the day after tomorrow next we'll see a buoy off greenland acting up.

Hahaha!
good morning,
geez, am i the only one who doesn't know who joe bastardi is?
morning Levi,,glad to see ya weathered the Storm up there.
Trying out a new puter HP with Google Chrome this am
We had anomalous buoy data from the last 2 major quakes. One showed a 60 meter wave if memory serves. I think ATMO was going to ask someone at his workplace about possible issues with the acoustic transducer communication some of these buoy's use.

1CM of Tsunami can equate to 3 Ft on the beach, dependent upon many factors of course.
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1142 AM EST THU MAR 11 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTH LAKE COUNTY IN FLORIDA...
NORTH VOLUSIA COUNTY IN FLORIDA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...DAYTONA...PORT ORANGE...
PIERSON...ORMOND BEACH...HOLLY HILL...DE LEON SPRINGS...
DELAND...AND BARBERVILLE...

* UNTIL 1230 PM EST.

* AT 1140 AM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR LAKE
GEORGE...OR 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF PIERSON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30
MPH.
Quoting Patrap:
morning Levi,,glad to see ya weathered the Storm up there.
Trying out a new puter HP with Google Chrome this am


Hey Pat, thanks ya we spent most of yesterday digging out. We had to have a tractor come clear out our driveway.

Nice puter :) I like Google Chrome a lot, although it does have a few issues that Firefox handles better. I really love Chrome's layout though, and if you have a lot of bookmarks its URL autocomplete is wonderful. To get wunderground, all I have to do is hit CTRL + L to get in the address bar, then type "W", and then "enter". No clicking :) Firefox doesn't have that kind of autocomplete suggestion, just a list that you have to click.
Quoting StormW:


Only after it died. LOL!


Lol...morning Storm :)
Quoting Levi32:


Hey Pat, thanks ya we spent most of yesterday digging out. We had to have a tractor come clear out our driveway.

Nice puter :) I like Google Chrome a lot, although it does have a few issues that Firefox handles better. I really love Chrome's layout though, and if you have a lot of bookmarks its URL autocomplete is wonderful. To get wunderground, all I have to do is hit CTRL + L to get in the address bar, then type "W", and then "enter". No clicking :) Firefox doesn't have that kind of autocomplete suggestion, just a list that you have to click.


Im trying to sort some of them issues this morning,but I do like the layout for sure.

I have links I forgot I had seems too...

morning folks
Quoting Patrap:


Im trying to sort some of them issues this morning,but I do like the layout for sure.

I have links I forgot I had seems too...



I would get the dev channel instead of the stable version, which is what I have used for months now. It has never had problems for me, and I'm always up to date with the latest features, improvements, and bug fixes, because it's several versions ahead of the stable release. It's a lot faster than the stable version too. If you're not comfortable with dev then you can try the beta channel too, which isn't updated as much but more often than the stable version.
MAP 4.9 2010/03/11 15:34:53 -34.270 -71.562 43.2 LIBERTADOR O'HIGGINS, CHILE
MAP 5.4 2010/03/11 15:26:18 -34.240 -71.844 35.0 LIBERTADOR O'HIGGINS, CHILE
MAP 3.6 2010/03/11 15:19:35 31.840 -115.864 6.0 BAJA CALIFORNIA, MEXICO
MAP 2.5 2010/03/11 15:08:48 39.493 -122.008 55.0 NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
MAP 6.0 2010/03/11 15:06:04 -34.218 -71.889 32.0 LIBERTADOR O'HIGGINS, CHILE
MAP 6.7 2010/03/11 14:55:30 -34.263 -71.782 35.0 LIBERTADOR O'HIGGINS, CHILE
MAP 6.9 2010/03/11 14:39:48 -34.251 -71.889 35.0 LIBERTADOR O'HIGGINS, CHILE
69. JRRP
uuhhh
eso mete miedo
Quoting StormW:


Only after it died. LOL!


LMAO,that was bad Storm.
New rotation signature and strong one too... N of Citrus, FL.
Wow...the Japanese model is just as scary as the ECMWF for this upcoming hurricane season. Take a look at the same pattern of warm water in the deep tropics with a La Nina trying to start developing during the summer. You can't ask for a better precipitation forecast for this either. It has a corridor of above-normal precipitation anomalies aimed right up out of the deep tropics towards the United States. This is similar to what the Euro is forecasting as well. It's hard to get it better than that for the Atlantic hurricane season.

Japanese FRCGC SST anomalies June-August:



Japanese FRCGC Precipitation Anomalies June-August:

Quoting Levi32:
Wow...the Japanese model is just as scary as the ECMWF for this upcoming hurricane season. Take a look at the same pattern of warm water in the deep tropics with a La Nina trying to start developing during the summer. You can't ask for a better precipitation forecast for this either. It has a corridor of above-normal precipitation anomalies aimed right up out of the deep tropics towards the United States. This is similar to what the Euro is forecasting as well. It's hard to get it better than that for the Atlantic hurricane season.

Japanese FRCGC SST anomalies June-August:


Japanese FRCGC Precipitation Anomalies June-August:

Rut-roh
Also take a look at all the heat in the atmosphere around the tropics world-wide. The El Nino has really spiced up the atmosphere with heat and moisture, and it looks like the Atlantic may be the front-runner on the model for focusing the greatest amount of that heat, based on the SST and precip maps above.

Japanese FRCGC 2m Temperature Anomalies June-August:

Quoting Levi32:
Also take a look at all the heat in the atmosphere around the tropics world-wide. The El Nino has really spiced up the atmosphere with heat and moisture, and it looks like the Atlantic may be the front-runner on the model for focusing the greatest amount of that heat.

Japanese FRCGC 2m Temperature Anomalies:



If trends hold... then this will definitely be an interesting HURR season to say the least.
Quoting StormW:


Only after it died. LOL!


Bada BING!
Quoting StormW:


This stuff doesn't look good. The only saving grace may be that the QBO could remain in an easterly phase.


I wonder about the QBO though...I wish I knew how big of an impact it really has. I read that Gray removed it from his forecast techniques because in recent years the QBO has shown little correlation with Atlantic hurricane activity.
Quoting WxLogic:


If trends hold... then this will definitely be an interesting HURR season to say the least.


La la la la la....

I'm not listening...

la la la la la la.....
From Gray's early December Forecast Methodology:

"Our initial 6-11 month early December seasonal hurricane forecast scheme (Gray et al. 1992) demonstrated hindcast skill for the period of 1950-1990 but did not give skillful results when utilized on a real-time basis for forecasts between 1995-2001. This was due to the discontinuation of the strong relationships we had earlier found between West African rainfall and the stratospheric quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) with Atlantic basin major hurricane activity 6-11 months in the future. We did not expect these relationships that had worked so well for 41 years to stop working from 1995 onward. We do not yet have a good explanation as to why these relationships have failed. We have discontinued this earlier 1 December forecast scheme and have developed a new 1 December forecast scheme."
Quoting Levi32:


I wonder about the QBO though...I wish I knew how big of an impact it really has. I read that Gray removed it from his forecast techniques because in recent years the QBO has shown little correlation with Atlantic hurricane activity.

What is a QBO and what is an eastern phase?
Quoting StormW:


This stuff doesn't look good. The only saving grace may be that the QBO could remain in an easterly phase.


True... best way to not allow the disturbance(s) to stack.
Quoting TampaTom:


La la la la la....

I'm not listening...

la la la la la la.....


LOL...
Quoting StormW:


Only after it died. LOL!


bada BOOM haha
Quoting StormW:


I'm just wondering if he took into account, that it mainly has an effect on 15N-15S as you and I were discussing a few days ago. Because that would knd of explain why the easterly phase of the QBO in 2005 didn't have much effect. If we go to the 2005 tracking map, most of the systems formed at or above 15N


Yeah, further west as well. There really wasn't much of a Cape Verde season in 2005. Then again, 2 of our analog years right off the top of my head that had an easterly QBO peak during the hurricane season also had an active cape verde season south of 15N:

1998:



2003:

Lots of twirlies going on.

Quoting Levi32:
From Gray's early December Forecast Methodology:

"Our initial 6-11 month early December seasonal hurricane forecast scheme (Gray et al. 1992) demonstrated hindcast skill for the period of 1950-1990 but did not give skillful results when utilized on a real-time basis for forecasts between 1995-2001. This was due to the discontinuation of the strong relationships we had earlier found between West African rainfall and the stratospheric quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) with Atlantic basin major hurricane activity 6-11 months in the future. We did not expect these relationships that had worked so well for 41 years to stop working from 1995 onward. We do not yet have a good explanation as to why these relationships have failed. We have discontinued this earlier 1 December forecast scheme and have developed a new 1 December forecast scheme."


Interesting... definitely missed that reading.
Quoting Levi32:
From Gray's early December Forecast Methodology:

"Our initial 6-11 month early December seasonal hurricane forecast scheme (Gray et al. 1992) demonstrated hindcast skill for the period of 1950-1990 but did not give skillful results when utilized on a real-time basis for forecasts between 1995-2001. This was due to the discontinuation of the strong relationships we had earlier found between West African rainfall and the stratospheric quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) with Atlantic basin major hurricane activity 6-11 months in the future. We did not expect these relationships that had worked so well for 41 years to stop working from 1995 onward. We do not yet have a good explanation as to why these relationships have failed. We have discontinued this earlier 1 December forecast scheme and have developed a new 1 December forecast scheme."

Isn't 1995 about when the NATL got into its warm phase?
Quoting StormW:


That's gonna be part of my research in May, along with the Indian (as in India) DiPole and where to find computer models on it.

I'm gonna try to find some of the papers for you that I've been reading in regard to the QBO, as it appears there are some scientists that are starting to look at the QBO more closely, and definitely talk about (not indepth however) of how it may affect Atlantic activity.


Thanks Storm. I do want to learn more about it.

I have a couple links on the IOD, but I'm sure there are more I haven't found yet:

POAMA ENSO and IOD model ensembles from Australia

Japanese page on the IOD, including ensemble forecasts

Japanese SST forecasts for IOBW (Indian Ocean Basin-Wide)
Quoting StormW:


I'm just wondering if he took into account, that it mainly has an effect on 15N-15S as you and I were discussing a few days ago. Because that would knd of explain why the easterly phase of the QBO in 2005 didn't have much effect. If we go to the 2005 tracking map, most of the systems formed at or above 15N
It has some effect on the tropical waves that move off of Africa. Especially the waves that migrate across the Atlantic at low latitudes. Weak waves are sheared apart to nothing. Vigorous waves sometimes make it to the Caribbean Sea, but don,t reach hurricane strength until much later in there existence. If at all. jmo
Quoting jeffs713:

Isn't 1995 about when the NATL got into its warm phase?


Exactly, the AMO went positive in that year. That suggests that the QBO may be fragile enough that warm SST anomalies in the Atlantic may overpower its affect on the Atlantic hurricane season quite easily. It's an interesting thing to study.
Big Boy Rotation
Question if the same strenght of winds would be aloft and the same height and i realize it would depend on the location of a system but, in general is it better to have westerly or easterly winds or which would hender less development? My first thought would be Easterly but i really don't know?
Quoting hydrus:
It has some effect on the tropical waves that move off of Africa. Especially the waves that migrate across the Atlantic at low latitudes. Weak waves are sheared apart to nothing. Vigorous waves sometimes make it to the Caribbean Sea, but don,t reach hurricane strength until much later in there existence. If at all. jmo


just like in 2005, there were very few CV systems and many of the storms did not form until they got to the islands
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHERN CITRUS COUNTY IN FLORIDA.
NORTHWESTERN HERNANDO COUNTY IN FLORIDA.
667
WFUS52 KTBW 111742
TORTBW
FLC017-053-111815-
/O.NEW.KTBW.TO.W.0007.100311T1742Z-100311T1815Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
1242 PM EST THU MAR 11 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHERN CITRUS COUNTY IN FLORIDA.
NORTHWESTERN HERNANDO COUNTY IN FLORIDA.

* UNTIL 115 PM EST

* AT 1241 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
TORNADO 13 MILES WEST OF CHASSAHOWITZKA...OR 15 MILES WEST OF
HOMOSASSA SPRINGS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
CHASSAHOWITZKA.
HOMOSASSA SPRINGS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THE TORNADO GO TO A SMALL INTERIOR ROOM IN
A STRONG AND WELL CONSTRUCTED BUILDING. CARS AND MOBILE HOMES ARE NOT
SAFE. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN A DITCH OR CULVERT AND
COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PLEASE CALL
813-645-2323.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM EST THURSDAY EVENING
FOR WESTERN FLORIDA.
Quoting Hurricanes101:


just like in 2005, there were very few CV systems and many of the storms did not form until they got to the islands
I wonder if the QBO conditions were favorable in 2005 would we have had a few more storms on top of the 28 tropical cyclones that formed.
Watch out, the storm is forming a gust front line. Probably going to have some 50-60 mph straight line winds before the rotation even gets to the area in front of the super cell system.

847
WFUS52 KJAX 111747
TORJAX
FLC035-111830-
/O.NEW.KJAX.TO.W.0013.100311T1747Z-100311T1830Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1247 PM EST THU MAR 11 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSONVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN FLAGLER COUNTY IN NORTHEAST FLORIDA

* UNTIL 130 PM EST

* AT 1247 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 8 MILES SOUTH OF
BUNNELL...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
BUNNELL...PALM COAST AND FLAGLER BEACH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN ADDITION TO THE TORNADO...THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND DESTRUCTIVE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS.

WHEN A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED BASED ON DOPPLER RADAR...IT MEANS
THAT STRONG ROTATION HAS BEEN DETECTED IN THE STORM. A TORNADO MAY
ALREADY BE ON THE GROUND...OR IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SHORTLY. IF YOU
ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS DANGEROUS STORM...MOVE INDOORS AND TO THE
LOWEST LEVEL OF THE BUILDING. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. IF DRIVING...DO
NOT SEEK SHELTER UNDER A HIGHWAY OVERPASS.

SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN INTERIOR
HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO COVER
YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

REPORT SEVERE WEATHER OR DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY
OR YOUR COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM EST THURSDAY EVENING
FOR NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA.
Quoting StormW:


From my readings, the both phases have something to do with the coupling of the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere. The westerly phase, supposedly allows the upper atmospher to become more vertical, and less wind shear, allowing for disturbances to go more vertical.


So if i understand you correctly in general EAsterly winds would in general hender development more so than Westerly. Thats what i though as well. But, as most storms move East to west one would also think just the opposite would occur as the easterly winds would allow a storm to stay vertical easier also......HECK i don't know but, i'm sure you are correct.
Hi guys whats up
Alright who killed the Blog?



Sunspots - A pair of sunspot groups have formed on the visible solar disk.

A new region which is located in the northern hemisphere towards the eastern limb was numbered 1054 on Wednesday. Meanwhile in the southern hemisphere, a new region quickly formed during the later part of Wednesday and should be numbered 1055 on Thursday. There will be a chance for B-Class flares and perhaps a small chance for a C-Class flare.


Man I love this year, the 1985 hurricane season. Joe Bastardi brought 1985 up to compare to this year in terms of possible United States landfall impact, but he did recognize that it was different with no El Nino during the preceding winter. In fact at this time the equatorial Pacific had been cold ever since the 1983 El Nino, and in La Nina conditions since late 1984. This had greatly cooled the tropics, and just look at the amazing Atlantic Tripole in June 1985 of cold SSTs in the deep tropics, warm north of 20N, and cold to the north of that in the north Atlantic. This is the utter opposite of this year.





This resulted in a very average year (10 storms), with all but one of those storms forming and tracking north of 20N, because that's where the focus of heat and upward motion was that year. 8 of the 10 storms that year made landfall in the US because of this pattern, which forced most of the storms to form close to our coastline, instead of out in the deep tropics where there is more room to move. 2 of these landfalls were major hurricanes, the famous Elena and Gloria (Gloria was the only long-track storm that formed south of 20N that year). I just love this year (of course not for the damage and deaths it caused). It is the most perfect example of how heat gets focused in the tropics, and how it has a huge effect on track congregations. It is also a perfect example of how a year with very few storms can still be very dangerous and deadly for the United States or any other country ($3.7 billion 1985 U.S. dollars in damage to the U.S. in 1985).

So anyone find out what caused that shake up yesterday in Pasco County, I felt it all the way down here in Largo?? I heard it might be from a sonic boom, but there was know confirmation of this.
All of you on here from C FL there are numerous funnel clouds being spotted with these storms with marble to quarter size hail. Some friends of mine in Daytona witnessed a funnel cloud pass right over them. A very dangerous setup right now occuring in C FL.
I'm just north of Orlando and I'm getting winds 20to 30mph from the SSE with a temp in the low 70's. We must have a strong low level jet right over head feeding these storms.
118. IKE
Storm reports so far today...is zilch...

Quoting IKE:
Storm reports so far today...



Numerous funnel clouds and hail reports in C FL. Infact Mount Dora is getting hail right now according to some of my associates that work there and 59 mph winds.
Local Storm Report


03/11/2010 1220 PM

3 miles E of Ocala, Marion County.

Heavy rain m2.25 inch, reported by trained spotter.


A storm spotter just south of Silver Spring Park reported
2.25 inches of rain since 8 am this morning.





03/11/2010 1041 am

1 miles ESE of Ocala, Marion County.

Funnel cloud, reported by public.


The public reported a funnel cloud at The Fort King
Middle School at 700 northeast 18th Avenue.





03/11/2010 1020 am

3 miles WSW of Ocala, Marion County.

Hail e0.75 inch, reported by trained spotter.


A storm spotter reported penny sized hail on State Road
200 near the paddock mall.





03/11/2010 1015 am

7 miles S of Rainbow Lakes , Marion County.

Flood, reported by trained spotter.


Trained spotter reported 3 inches of rain over a 30
minute period of time near Rainbow Lakes Estates.




03/11/2010 1015 am

Ocala, Marion County.

Funnel cloud, reported by trained spotter.


Ham radio operators reported seeing funnel clouds near
Ocala.




03/11/2010 1017 am

3 miles NE of Ocala, Marion County.

Hail e0.75 inch, reported by public.


Two public reports of penny sized hail in Ocala.



Local Storm Report


03/11/2010 1132 am

Daytona Beach, Volusia County.

Funnel cloud, reported by ASOS.


Multiple funnel clouds sighted 2sw of Daytona Beach ASOS.

My buddy is in sorrento florida and said he is experience atleast 55-65 mph straight line winds and the rain is going sideways.
Igor and Fiona sounds like bad name storms for this up-coming hurricane season.
Statement as of 1:27 PM EST on March 11, 2010


The National Weather Service in Melbourne has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
Central Lake County in Florida
Orange County in Florida
Seminole County in Florida
southern Volusia County in Florida

* until 230 PM EST.

* At 121 PM EST... National Weather Service meteorologists detected a
severe thunderstorm capable of producing damaging winds in excess
of 60 mph. This storm was located near Mount Dora... and moving
east at 35 mph.

* Other locations in the warning include... but are not limited to...
Lake Apopka... Zellwood... Mount Plymouth... Winter Garden...
Apopka... Ocoee... Orange City... Casselberry... Orlando... Winter
Park... Sanford... Union Park... Oviedo... Geneva

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

This is a dangerous storm. If you are in its path... prepare
immediately for damaging winds and deadly cloud to ground lightning.
People outside should move to a shelter... preferably inside a strong
building but away from windows.
Quoting StormChaser81:
My buddy is in sorrento florida and said he is experience atleast 55-65 mph straight line winds and the rain is going sideways.


Same in Mount Dora.
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Igor and Fiona sounds like bad name storms for this up-coming hurricane season.
this might be the year to make it all the way to scary shary
Rain totals are reaching 6 inches Southwest of Ocala.

Lightning is beginning to real bad here in Longwood, FL. Summer type lightning right now.
TVS,

The whole front is diving south fast. It's going to be in the Tampa Bay area within next hour to a hour in half.

132. OGal
Hey Jeff, here in Winter Springs the sky is getting very dark. Are ya'll getting alot of wind??
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHERN CITRUS COUNTY IN FLORIDA.
NORTHWESTERN HERNANDO COUNTY IN FLORIDA.
Quoting OGal:
Hey Jeff, here in Winter Springs the sky is getting very dark. Are ya'll getting alot of wind??


The really strong wind event is north of Orlando diving southeast right now. IN this storm can expect 50-60mph winds.
Quoting OGal:
Hey Jeff, here in Winter Springs the sky is getting very dark. Are ya'll getting alot of wind??


Just like we have all day nothing major yet just thunder and lightning increasing. It's coming though. Very dark looking West.
With lightning
138. OGal
Jeff just got the thunder.
Any thoughts on the storm potential for Indiana this afternoon?

Lafayette, Purdue University Airport
Lat: 40.43 Lon: -86.93 Elev: 623
Last Update on Mar 11, 12:54 pm EST

Overcast

61 °F
(16 °C)
Humidity: 70 %
Wind Speed: S 12 MPH
Barometer: 29.59" (1001.9 mb)
Dewpoint: 51 °F (11 °C)
Visibility: 10.00 mi.
Possible tornado forming in Martin County in SE FL. The whole penisula is getting in on this right now. Possible tornado is moving east at 30 mph.
Local Storm Report


03/11/2010 1123 am

Fort Pierce, St Lucie County.

Non-thunderstorm wind gust m40 mph, reported by ASOS.


36 knot / 40 mph wind gust from 160 degrees
It is crazy dark here right now. All street light are on and lightning flashing everywhere.
Looking at the long range radar out of Tampa, it appears that the storms upstream of y'all are continuing to organize/strengthen based on the increasing intensities of the echos far away from the radar with respect to time.

Wow! We are getting some very dark skies and very windy in Tampa!
Quoting 1900hurricane:
Looking at the long range radar out of Tampa, it appears that the storms upstream of y'all are continuing to organize/strengthen based on the increasing intensities of the echos far away from the radar with respect to time.



The storms further out in the gulf look to have a much more stable atmosphere. You can see it forming more into a front line with strong thunderstorms spotty throughout the line.
Another tornado warning north of citrus county, doesn't look as strong as the last two, not much of a signature.
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0183
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0113 PM CST THU MAR 11 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL FL PENINSULA

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 29...

VALID 111913Z - 112015Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 29 CONTINUES.

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SUGGESTS A WEAK MESO LOW IS RIPPLING EAST ALONG
THE BOUNDARY NEAR SUMTER COUNTY IN THE CNTRL FL PENINSULA. THIS
FEATURE WILL SOON BE DISPLACED OFF THE EAST COAST AS LLJ REFOCUSES
DOWNSTREAM NEAR THE GA/SC BORDER. IN THE SHORT TERM SQUALL LINE/MCS
IS PROGRESSING STEADILY ESEWD AT ROUGHLY 25KT...PERHAPS A BIT
QUICKER AT TIMES...WHICH WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE CNTRL PENINSULA
BY 12/00Z. 18Z SOUNDING FROM MFL INDICATES WARM SECTOR BOUNDARY
LAYER PARCELS ARE NOT INHIBITED AND NEAR-SFC BASED UPDRAFTS SHOULD
BE COMMON WITHIN 70+ TEMPERATURE ENVIRONMENT. NEEDLESS TO
SAY...STRONG SHEAR REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT AHEAD
OF SQUALL LINE AND ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE MORE LIKELY WITH THIS
DISCRETE ACTIVITY.

..DARROW.. 03/11/2010


ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX...

LAT...LON 29198360 29208018 27318016 27308357 29198360
Snow in Corsica (3 photos)
Link
Wow is it getting very windy and dark skies in Tampa......



Looks like enough CAPE to make for some Severe Stuff if i am reading this correct.

Time to go into Vortex Search mode for the Day as the heating of the day has really created enough instability to make this an really rough afternoon in Central and South Florida it appears.
It pouring like crazy here. Over an inch of rain in 20 minutes in Longwood with no end in sight.
Quoting TampaSpin:
Time to go into Vortex Search mode for the Day as the heating of the day has really created enough instability to make this an really rough afternoon in Central and South Florida it appears.


one can really see the vorticity picking up over the central FL region!
I live in Melbourne and we haven`t had much. A little rain and a lot of cloud cover keeping the temps down.
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 235 PM EST THU MAR 11 2010 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR...
EAST CENTRAL SAINT LUCIE COUNTY IN FLORIDA... THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...WALTON...FORT PIERCE INLET...WHITE CITY...SAINT LUCIE NUCLEAR PLANT...FORT PIERCE...
* UNTIL 300 PM EST. * AT 233 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR PORT SAINT LUCIE RIVER PARK...OR NEAR PORT SAINT LUCIE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH. * OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO WHITE CITY AND INDIAN RIVER ESTATES
162. OGal
According to my weather station it is raining cats and dogs. Just about two inches an hour. At the moment no lightening or thunder. Just nice rain that is wetting all our dead foliage.
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
231 PM EST THU MAR 11 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHERN SUMTER COUNTY IN FLORIDA.
EASTERN HERNANDO COUNTY IN FLORIDA.
NORTHEASTERN PASCO COUNTY IN FLORIDA.

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 PM EST FOR SOUTHERN
CITRUS...NORTHERN HERNANDO AND NORTHWESTERN SUMTER COUNTIES...

AT 225 PM EST...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A TORNADO.
LOCATED NEAR CHASSAHOWITZKA...OR 7 MILES SOUTHEAST OF HOMOSASSA
SPRINGS...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
CHASSAHOWITZKA.
FLORAL CITY.


THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN BREVARD COUNTY IN FLORIDA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...SCOTTSMOOR...PLAYALINDA BEACH...
MIMS...HAULOVER CANAL...
EAST CENTRAL SEMINOLE COUNTY IN FLORIDA...
SOUTHEASTERN VOLUSIA COUNTY IN FLORIDA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF MAYTOWN...



THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
EAST CENTRAL SAINT LUCIE COUNTY IN FLORIDA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...WALTON...FORT PIERCE INLET...WHITE
CITY...SAINT LUCIE NUCLEAR PLANT...FORT PIERCE...
164. flsky
Quoting CyclonicVoyage:

What is this???
Wow... multiple Supercells to my west (Lake County) I'm in the Apopka area... but they do appear to be decreasing some so hopefully it'll be some additional heavy rain...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... NORTHERN BREVARD COUNTY IN FLORIDA... THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...SCOTTSMOOR...PLAYALINDA BEACH... MIMS...HAULOVER CANAL... EAST CENTRAL SEMINOLE COUNTY IN FLORIDA... SOUTHEASTERN VOLUSIA COUNTY IN FLORIDA...


THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF MAYTOWN... * UNTIL 315 PM EST. * AT 233 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR MAYTOWN... MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.


* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO KLONDIKE BEACH AND MERRITT ISLAND WILDLIFE REFUGE
Quoting TampaSpin:
Looks like enough CAPE to make for some Severe Stuff if i am reading this correct.



They were expecting <500jul for this afternoon. Seems some areas are topping 1000jul
Melbourne must have shields up. It is nasty in all directions around us but not here!
Quoting flsky:

What is this???


Cape (Convective Available Potential Energy)

Fuel for severe storms
Quoting flsky:

What is this???



Its CAPE values with the largest Values indicated near KEY WEST
Flow across the FL Peninsula is starting to become more Unidirectional... you can see this by the line of storm currently moving across CFL taking a more W to E orientation... this could lead to a training effect in some areas and definitely receive quite a bit of rain with over 3 to 4 inches or more.
pretty impressive rainfall over here in e cen florida
All's quiet here in Clearwater... hmmm....breezy but no clouds of doom or lightning...
Quoting TampaTom:
All's quiet here in Clearwater... hmmm....breezy but no clouds of doom or lightning...


It is just north of you right now. The rain here is tremendous now over 2 inches in an hour. The worst is still yet to come strongers storms just we of us righgt now.
Good afternoon folks. The weather pattern over Southern and Central Florida will remain quite active over the coming 48 hours as we will be pretty much under the warm sector of a developing front from the Gulf of Mexico at least through tomorrow night. Given the fact that there's an impressive low level jet building (50 to 65 kts), continued increase in deep tropical moisture (PWATs increasing to near 2 inches by night), and sufficient CAPE existing over the region, there exists a notable risk for severe weather, as is currently happening, through at least tomorrow night. You can clearly see the increasing instability and more conducive conditions for severe weather in the newest 18Z Sounding for Miami, FL below. Right now, I like the SPC approach in issuing a Slight Risk for Severe Weather for Central and Southern Florida. It appears that the major threats will be very heavy rainfall (current NWS forecasts between 2 and 3 inches widespread with isolated 5+ inches), damaging gusty winds (near 70 mph), and isolated tornadoes as have been occurring throughout the day.



MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0184
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0156 PM CST THU MAR 11 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN IND...FAR ERN IL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 111956Z - 112130Z

A MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL AND LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND THREAT SHOULD
EXIST THIS AFTERNOON WITH TSTMS DEVELOPING ACROSS WRN IND. A WW
ISSUANCE IS UNLIKELY ATTM.

TSTM INITIATION IS UNDERWAY ACROSS W-CNTRL IND INVOF OF BMG/HUF
DOWNSTREAM OF A MID-LEVEL IMPULSE SHIFTING N/NEWD ACROSS THE MID-MS
VALLEY. ALTHOUGH SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
50S...MODIFIED 18Z LINCOLN IL RAOB IS SUGGESTIVE OF A STEEP
LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT UPSTREAM...FROM THE WABASH
VALLEY WWD WHERE SURFACE HEATING HAS BEEN MORE ROBUST. THIS COMBINED
WITH A MODERATE S/SWLY AND NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL KINEMATIC
PROFILE...SHOULD LARGELY SUPPORT A CONVECTIVE MODE CONSISTING OF
CLUSTERS/SHORT-LINE SEGMENTS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR PRODUCING
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS.

..GRAMS.. 03/11/2010


ATTN...WFO...LMK...IWX...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...
Those in Downtown ORL... better watch out. Rotating Supercell (quite apparent in the Base Velocity) heading that way and a possible Tornado/TSTM warning might be issue soon.
Quoting TampaTom:
All's quiet here in Clearwater... hmmm....breezy but no clouds of doom or lightning...


The worst weather is yet to come! The really severe stuff is starting now across Florida. The heating of the day has caused enough instability to really make this very severe it appears.
181. flsky
My weather radio alarm just sounded for the 8th time today (Daytona Beach Shores).
Quoting cchsweatherman:
Good afternoon folks. The weather pattern over Southern and Central Florida will remain quite active over the coming 48 hours as we will be pretty much under the warm sector of a developing front from the Gulf of Mexico at least through tomorrow night. Given the fact that there's an impressive low level jet building (50 to 65 kts), continued increase in deep tropical moisture (PWATs increasing to near 2 inches by night), and sufficient CAPE existing over the region, there exists a notable risk for severe weather, as is currently happening, through at least tomorrow night. You can clearly see the increasing instability and more conducive conditions for severe weather in the newest 18Z Sounding for Miami, FL below. Right now, I like the SPC approach in issuing a Slight Risk for Severe Weather for Central and Southern Florida. It appears that the major threats will be very heavy rainfall (current NWS forecasts between 2 and 3 inches widespread with isolated 5+ inches), damaging gusty winds (near 70 mph), and isolated tornadoes as have been occurring throughout the day.



I told you this was coming!
1/4 mile visibility in Longwood with over 3" now in 1 hour in 15 minutes. AMAZING!!!
185. OGal
Jeff, we are only at l.10inches. I hope the rain lets up a little so it can start to drain. Gonna be a long afternoon and evening.
Quoting Jeff9641:


I told you this was coming!


You were indeed correct this time around. I've been taking on a more conservative approach to my forecasting than I used to. I would rather wait and see an actual system evolve before jumping the gun and sounding any alarms. I've been highly criticized in the past for doing such.
Quoting TampaSpin:

I'm surprised they don't have a warning up for the cell west of Orlando. Definite rotation there.
nothing here just yet but its coming here in St Pete
Quoting cchsweatherman:


You were indeed correct this time around. I've been taking on a more conservative approach to my forecasting than I used to. I would rather wait and see an actual system evolve before jumping the gun and sounding any alarms. I've been highly criticized in the past for doing such.


I agree this is the real deal this time. My NOAA radio has went off now 11 times today.
191. flsky
Wonder how chicklit is doing....
192. xcool
Hurricane Season Could Be 'Extreme,' Forecaster Says


March 11) -- AccuWeather.com, which just issued its early hurricane season forecast, not only believes that the 2010 season will be more active than last year, but the private company sees the potential for an "extreme season" with an above-normal threat all along the Atlantic and Gulf coasts.

The forecast was led by chief long-range meteorologist and hurricane forecaster Joe Bastardi, who believes that this year will be more like the 2008 hurricane season than the much quieter 2009 season. In 2008, there were 16 named storms, eight of which were hurricanes, including the major hurricane Ike that ravaged the upper Texas coast. In 2009, only two storms (one of which was a hurricane) made landfall, both along the Gulf Coast, making it the least active Atlantic hurricane season since 1997.

The forecast mirrors other early-season prognostications in terms of more tropical activity than last year. It projects 16 to 18 storms (hurricanes and tropical storms), 15 of which are expected to occur in the western Atlantic and in the Gulf of Mexico, potentially posing a threat to U.S. coastlines. Seven hurricanes are forecast by AccuWeather, five of them major (Category 3 or stronger). Two or three major hurricanes are projected to make landfall, with seven total storms making landfall.

2008: A Ferocious Hurricane SeasonJoanna Lewis, AP11 photos The 2008 Atlantic storm season saw 16 named storms, including eight hurricanes. Five of those were major, reaching Category 3 strength or higher. Here, Hurricane Paloma hits Grand Cayman island on Nov. 7.(Note: Please disable your pop-up blocker)http://xml.channel.aol.com/xmlpublisher/fetch.v2.xml?option=expand_relative_urls&dataUrlNode s=uiConfig,feedConfig,localizationConfig,entry&id=850134&pid=850133&uts=1268334370
http://www.aolcdn.com/ke/media_gallery/v1/ke_media_gallery_wrapper.swf
2008: A Ferocious Hurricane Season
The 2008 Atlantic storm season saw 16 named storms, including eight hurricanes. Five of those were major, reaching Category 3 strength or higher. Here, Hurricane Paloma hits Grand Cayman island on Nov. 7.
Joanna Lewis, AP
Joanna Lewis, AP
The forecast did not pinpoint which region (Gulf Coast, Florida or East Coast) has the greatest likelihood of landfalling storms; AccuWeather thinks all coastal areas have an above-normal threat this season. Seasons that Bastardi believes are comparable to the upcoming one include 1964, 1995 and 1998, all which resulted in devastating landfalling storms. Hurricane Cleo in 1964 killed 217 Florida residents; Hurricane Opal in 1995 caused $3 billion in damage; Hurricane Bonnie in 1995 caused $1 billion in damage.

The National Weather Service is scheduled to issue its hurricane forecast in May. The U.S. hurricane season officially begins June 1 and continues through November, although peak activity tends to occur around late August.

The meteorological reasoning behind the forecast for a more active hurricane season this year includes the expected rapid weakening of the current El Nino in the tropical Pacific. Pacific Ocean warming might seem like an odd factor to consider in an Atlantic basin forecast. But when an El Nino is occurring in the Pacific, the Atlantic hurricane season is typically much less active. Many forecasters point to the development of the El Nino last summer as one of the factors that inhibited tropical formation.

Warmer sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic this year are another factor in the projected storm activity. Hurricane formation is driven by the warmth of the ocean, and sea surface temperatures of at least 80 degrees Fahrenheit are needed for tropical storm formation. Warmer water is one of the key factors mentioned in all early season forecasts.

An expected weakening of Atlantic trade winds is another factor highlighted in AccuWeather's forecast. These easterly winds tend to pull dry air and dust from Africa into the tropical Atlantic, both of which are not conducive to tropical formation.

Hurricane season forecasts are difficult to assess because one major storm in a quiet year can cause more heartache and damage than an active season with no devastating storms.

Unfortunately for Americans living in areas close to the coast, early indications are that the potential is great this year, both in terms of the number and intensity of landfalling hurricanes.
Filed under: Nation, Science

by Paul Yeager
Quoting jeffs713:

I'm surprised they don't have a warning up for the cell west of Orlando. Definite rotation there.



There is more rotation just to the NW of Orlando currently also.....this really might get really bad.
Local Storm Report


03/11/2010 0222 PM
2 miles from me in Longwood



1 miles N of altamonte spri, Seminole County.

Funnel cloud, reported by trained spotter.


Funnel cloud sighted near intersection of I-4 and sr 434.
Reported relayed by wftv channel 9.

Haven't seen a drop of rain at the office yet. Westshore & Cypress in Tampa
Wow my NOAA radio is going absolutely crazy right now........geesh.
197. OGal
Jeff, that funnel cloud shows up on radar. It looks like it is moving to the north and east. Sure hope it misses us.
It hasn't rained like this since TS FAY in 2008.
Quoting BobinTampa:
Haven't seen a drop of rain at the office yet. Westshore & Cypress in Tampa


ITs coming trust me.....get ready to get under your desk in about 1 hour or less.
Quoting TampaSpin:



There is more rotation just to the NW of Orlando currently also.....this really might get really bad.

The area NW of Orlando looks questionable, since it just popped up, and is barely larger than a pixel. The area due west of Orlando has stuck together remarkably well over the entire loop you posted.
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
318 PM EST THU MAR 11 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
MARTIN COUNTY IN FLORIDA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...PALM CITY...INDIANTOWN...HOBE
SOUND...

* UNTIL 400 PM EST.

* AT 314 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR
INDIANTOWN...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO PORT
SALERNO...ROCKY POINT...JOHNATHAN DICKINSON STATE PARK...JONATHAN
DICKINSON STATE PARK...HOBE SOUND BEACH AND JUPITER ISLAND

Wow the Polk and Hillsborough line looks really bad. Watch out if you live in the LUTZ area.
Nasty tornado moving towards Palm Bay:



Quoting TampaSpin:
NOAA WEATHER RADIO


FOR THOSE NEEDING!
on radar looks like the nasty stuff is all north and east of the westshore area. Looks like we'll get an hour or so of heavy rain.

206. OGal
I don't want another Fay but at least this time I have flood insurance.
Hi all: I haven't been on here for a long time. Just light rain and wind here in Melbourne (for now).
Thank you Tampa!!!!! Been listening, work in Okeechobee, live in Port St. Lucie. Need to make sure it's safe to leave for home soon!!!
Looks like a Vortex heading just south of of the Melbourne area.....
looks like the nasty stuff is getting cut off right at the Pasco/Pinellas line.

Definitely looking quite ominous on radar now across Central Florida with several rotations evident developing on radar. Would definitely heed the warnings and remain indoors this afternoon unless absolutely necessary. In analyzing radar, these storms contain near hurricane force wind gusts and are producing incredible rainfall rates nearing 3 inches per hour.
Just as i had said a funnel cloud has now been spotted in the LUTZ and Land o Lakes area.....take cover.
Quoting cchsweatherman:
Definitely looking quite ominous on radar now across Central Florida with several rotations evident developing on radar. Would definitely heed the warnings and remain indoors this afternoon unless absolutely necessary. In analyzing radar, these storms contain near hurricane force wind gusts and are producing incredible rainfall rates nearing 3 inches per hour.


Verifyed becuase I've recieved 3.65" so far in Longwood and more heavy rain is about to move in.
slight drizzle here. nothing more.
Looks like us here is st.pete are not going to get anything from this.
Pasco County is getting absolutely hammered. It seems like the storms fall apart south of that.

More thunderstorms in the gulf moving toward the coast, this is definately going to last into the evening...
Link
This thing is not moving much......Alot in the GOM to come yet!



looks a little rainy
Quoting tampahurricane:
Looks like us here is st.pete are not going to get anything from this.


It has not reached the City area yet.....its all North Yet.
Got another alarm going off
oh good. maybe it will be here just in time for the drive home. Nothing like rush hour commute in a driving rain storm.

225. RM706
Come over to the Radio show: http://www.wunderground.com/wxradio/wubroadcast.html
Quoting tampahurricane:
Looks like us here is st.pete are not going to get anything from this.


I'm seconding that, its falling apart on the backside.
Nothing near me in Miami Cloudy though.
Quoting StormChaser81:


I'm seconding that, its falling apart on the backside.


That part is another band is forming south of it.
It's the Grim Reapers Scythe



Tornado Warning for Polk County near Polk City!
Kinda surprised that the blog is so slow with severe weather in Florida.

Quoting TampaSpin:
Tornado Warning for Polk County near Polk City!


Weird they went up for one or two frames and then went away.
Things should start calming down for now... as flow has become unidirectional... but get ready for round 2 by tomorrow AM and early afternoon.
according to radar we should have gotten at least noticeable rain. but according to the sidewalk, we've gotten sprinkles at best.

A incredible amount of rain here north of Orlando so far today. 4 plus inches so far today. Flash flooding becoming a concern here in Seminole County.


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0185
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0245 PM CST THU MAR 11 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN FL PENINSULA

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 29...

VALID 112045Z - 112145Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 29 CONTINUES.

...TORNADO WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE SRN FL
PENINSULA...JUST SOUTH OF WW29...

CONSIDERABLE BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER HAVE ALLOWED THE SRN PENINSULA TO
DESTABILIZE A BIT MORE THAN AREAS FARTHER NORTH. 18Z SOUNDING FROM
MFL CERTAINLY SUPPORTS THIS WITH UPWARDS OF 1000 J/KG SBCAPE AND
STRONG VEERING PROFILES WITH HEIGHT. CURRENTLY MOST UPDRAFTS ARE A
BIT TOO SHALLOW TO DISCHARGE LIGHTNING...BUT WITH TIME IT APPEARS AT
LEAST ISOLATED SUPERCELLS MAY EVOLVE TOWARD THE EAST COAST. ONE
INHIBITING FACTOR FOR WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ACROSS THIS REGION IS
THE LACK OF MEANINGFUL LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE/UVV. EVEN
SO...CONTINUED HEATING SHOULD ENHANCE THE PROSPECTS FOR AT LEAST A
FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF GENERATING HAIL AND PERHAPS
TORNADOES. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE TORNADO WATCH
SOUTH OF WW29.

..DARROW.. 03/11/2010


ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...

LAT...LON 25408044 27018141 27518005 25907956 25408044
Of course SFL is another story (Possible TSTM Watch might be issue a bit later):

Link
LOL CyclonicVoyage... I guess you beat me to it.
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
443 PM EST THU MAR 11 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL POLK COUNTY IN FLORIDA.

* UNTIL 515 PM EST

* AT 442 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
TORNADO NEAR LAKE ALFRED...OR NEAR WINTER HAVEN...MOVING EAST AT 40
MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
HAINES CITY.
We have had zero to a couple of sprinkles of rain in St. Petersburg, FL.

Strong winds though.

A gust to 43 mph twice at 1pm and 2pm.

NWS
Quoting RM706:
Come over to the Radio show: http://www.wunderground.com/wxradio/wubroadcast.html


Thank you RM706, I was searching for this link most of yesterday!
243. OGal
Jeff, I think you had more rain than I did. However the dry lake bed behind our house is starting to fill up. Hubby just emptied the pool. From what I understand more rain a possibility tonight late and tomorrow.
Quoting StormChaser81:
We have had zero to a couple of sprinkles of rain in St. Petersburg, FL.

Strong winds though.

A gust to 43 mph twice at 1pm and 2pm.

NWS


Your luck is about to run out as a possible tornadic storm will move into Tampa Bay in the next hour or so. A very strong storm offshore of Tampa right now.
New Tornado warning Southwest of Orlando.
Quoting OGal:
Jeff, I think you had more rain than I did. However the dry lake bed behind our house is starting to fill up. Hubby just emptied the pool. From what I understand more rain a possibility tonight late and tomorrow.


You should have around 3" in your area maybe more.
Quoting CyclonicVoyage:


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0185
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0245 PM CST THU MAR 11 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN FL PENINSULA

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 29...

VALID 112045Z - 112145Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 29 CONTINUES.

...TORNADO WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE SRN FL
PENINSULA...JUST SOUTH OF WW29...

CONSIDERABLE BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER HAVE ALLOWED THE SRN PENINSULA TO
DESTABILIZE A BIT MORE THAN AREAS FARTHER NORTH. 18Z SOUNDING FROM
MFL CERTAINLY SUPPORTS THIS WITH UPWARDS OF 1000 J/KG SBCAPE AND
STRONG VEERING PROFILES WITH HEIGHT. CURRENTLY MOST UPDRAFTS ARE A
BIT TOO SHALLOW TO DISCHARGE LIGHTNING...BUT WITH TIME IT APPEARS AT
LEAST ISOLATED SUPERCELLS MAY EVOLVE TOWARD THE EAST COAST. ONE
INHIBITING FACTOR FOR WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ACROSS THIS REGION IS
THE LACK OF MEANINGFUL LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE/UVV. EVEN
SO...CONTINUED HEATING SHOULD ENHANCE THE PROSPECTS FOR AT LEAST A
FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF GENERATING HAIL AND PERHAPS
TORNADOES. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE TORNADO WATCH
SOUTH OF WW29.

..DARROW.. 03/11/2010


ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...

LAT...LON 25408044 27018141 27518005 25907956 25408044


Been getting pretty concerned down here in Southeast Florida and it appears the SPC has begun to as well as there has been some pretty good sunshine throughout the afternoon here in Broward County. When walking outside my house, you can really feel the heavy moist air and can sense how the atmosphere continues to become more unstable with this sunshine. Tomorrow could be a real nasty day for Southeast Florida as the focus will shift southward.
Quoting Jeff9641:


Your luck is about to run out as a possible tornadic storm will move into Tampa Bay in the next hour or so. A very strong storm offshore of Tampa right now.


not seeing that on radar. how far offshore?
Quoting Jeff9641:


Your luck is about to run out as a possible tornadic storm will move into Tampa Bay in the next hour or so. A very strong storm offshore of Tampa right now.


I think that storm is going to thread it self right between Tampa Inlet. It's moving south a little bit with every frame.
Quoting Jeff9641:


Your luck is about to run out as a possible tornadic storm will move into Tampa Bay in the next hour or so. A very strong storm offshore of Tampa right now.


It is too far south to hit the St. Petersburg penninsula I think. I think it will pass into the inlet and smash north of Sarasota and south of Tampa
Quoting cchsweatherman:


Been getting pretty concerned down here in Southeast Florida and it appears the SPC has begun to as well as there has been some pretty good sunshine throughout the afternoon here in Broward County. When walking outside my house, you can really feel the heavy moist air and can sense how the atmosphere continues to become more unstable with this sunshine. Tomorrow could be a real nasty day for Southeast Florida as the focus will shift southward.



We got a sneak peak a week back or so. Gross subsurface / surf cooling was inhibiting the storms past. Seems sufficient heating recently has opened the door to the severe weather on would expect during an El Nino year.
Quoting BobinTampa:


not seeing that on radar. how far offshore?


Quoting StormChaser81:


I think that storm is going to thread it self right between Tampa Inlet. It's moving south a little bit with every frame.


Looks like it might clip the extreme southern point of Pinellas... but be an issue for Manatee and southern Hillsborough....
Gotcha stormchaser. that's well south of me.

Quoting StormChaser81:


I think that storm is going to thread it self right between Tampa Inlet. It's moving south a little bit with every frame.


South side of Tampa Bay. The city itself seems to be in the middle of all the action.
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14F
6:00 AM FST March 12 2010
======================================

GALE WIND WARNING IS NOW IN FORCE FOR WALLIS

A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT REMAINS IN FORCE FOR FUTUNA

A STRONG WIND WARNING IS NOW IN FORCE FOR FUTUNA


At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression 14 (999 hPa) located at 10.7S 176.0W has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. Position POOR based on hourly GMS/GOES enhanced infrared imagery with animation. The depression is reported as moving west-southwest at 6 knots.

Organization has improved past 24 hours. The system lies over a weakly sheared and diffluent environment. Sea surface temperature is 30C. System steered west-southwest by northeast deep layer mean flow.

Dvorak analysis based on 0.5 wrap on LOG10 spiral yielding DT 2.5

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24HRS

Global models agree on west southwest track and intensification.

Forecast and Intensity
========================
12 HRS: 11.1S 177.1W - 35 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS: 11.7S 178.1W - 45 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS: 13.8S 179.9W - 65 knots (CAT 3)

The Next Tropical Disturbance Advisory On TD 14F Will Be Issued At Around 2:30 AM UTC (Friday)...
at least the drive home will be a bit saner than I thought it might be.

Have a good night everyone. stay dry.
258. Ighuc
For the first time this year we have breached 50 degrees here in Iowa. Combining the heavy rains last night (even hail!) with the rapid snowmelt this week, we have our first flood warnings of the spring. I couldn't imagine anything near 2008 levels, but it's certainly worth watching...
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13F
6:00 AM FST March 12 2010
======================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression 13 (998 hPa) located at 14.7S 166.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. Position POOR based on hourly GMS/GOES enhanced infrared imagery and peripheral surface reports. The depression is reported as moving slowly.

Organization has improved over the last 24 hours. The system lies in a moderately sheared environment. Sea surface temperature is around 30C.

Dvorak analysis based on 0.35 wrap on LOG10 spiral yielding DT 2.0

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0/2.0/D0.5/24HRS

EC global model expected the system to move west-northwest and intensify.

Forecast and Intensity
========================
12 HRS: 14.6S 164.8E - 30 knots (TROPICAL DEPRESSION)
24 HRS: 14.0S 163.1E - 35 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS: 12.8S 159.9E - 60 knots (CAT 2)

The Next Tropical Disturbance Advisory On TD 13F Will Be Issued At Around 2:30 AM UTC (Friday)...
Watch this low forming off east central FL..some part of the NE may get slammed by it in 60hrs or so.
I-4 was a real challenge this afternoon.
Ugh. No accidents from 1:30-2 p.m. heading toward Daytona but rush hour probably the usual fiasco in bad weather.
Yeah, offshore looking virulent Skye.
Tornado warning just south of me, Palm Bay..
Quoting Chicklit:
I-4 was a real challenge this afternoon.
Ugh. No accidents from 1:30-2 p.m. heading toward Daytona but rush hour probably the usual fiasco in bad weather.
Yeah, offshore looking virulent Skye.
lets wait watch see what spins up there
Link We are boiling in Belize today . Please don't let any tornado get heat from us down here or your in trouble . Temps are a 104 F
Now they have that tornado exiting at Barefoot Bay..No suprise, total magnet trailer park.. Hope they get missed. They get tore up repeatedly..
Looks like the Brazil cyclone is dissipating and becoming extratropical.
Hey guys!
Quoting StormW:
RGB Satellite imagery indicates another low may be developing near 28N;94W

Maybe just my eyes playing tricks.


You may be right. Looking at the loop I'm seeing bleeding northeast winds north of the front south of LA and TX. There is also an area of 850mb vorticity just south of Texas:

Quoting StormW:
RGB Satellite imagery indicates another low may be developing near 28N;94W

Maybe just my eyes playing tricks.

RGB LOOP


I do believe you are right
HPC is analyzing a low in that location. I do believe there is one, based on buoy observations showing an area of lower pressure over the NW gulf.

Quoting Levi32:


You may be right. Looking at the loop I'm seeing bleeding northeast winds north of the front south of LA and TX. There is also an area of 850mb vorticity just south of Texas:



What does this mean for people in the panhandle of Florida?
well its official 09/10 winter in grt lakes region has been the 9th warmest on record with a 2.1 degrees above normal based upon the 63 years of records on file also to note been a dry winter with only 34 cm of snow entire season spring looks to be milder than normal as well with continuing dry conditions with some sporatic rains at the moment summer looks to be hot and dry for 2010 but of coarse things can and will change stay tune
Tropical Cyclone Twenty just formed in the South Pacific this afternoon, and is expected to become a category three in 5 days while heading for Australia.



Meanwhile, TC Nineteen is expected to hit eastern Fiji as a cat. 2. Current SSTs in its trajectory area are warmer than normal.



Exclamation mark! There was also a string of three strong aftershocks in Chile today, the first and strongest one measuring mag. 6.9. 18,000 people were exposed to violent or extreme shaking, likely to produce heavy damage even in the sturdiest of structures, and nowhere in Chile was ground shaking that strong associated on land with the main M8.8 quake.

Nasty cell near Chicago, severe hail detected by radar. Im surprised the NWS in Romeoville has yet to issue a warning. BTW Romeoville is real close too the storm.



Quoting ElConando:


What does this mean for people in the panhandle of Florida?


It probably means more trouble tomorrow as the upper trough digs down over LA and Mississippi. The SPC has an area of slight risk over most of Florida and north into Georgia and Alabama tomorrow as well.
manatee county 45 minutes south Tampa Fl is getting 3inches of rain ,windy and cloudy
000
NWUS53 KLOT 112337
LSRLOT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
536 PM CST THU MAR 11 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0530 PM HAIL LOVES PARK 42.34N 89.01W
03/11/2010 E0.75 INCH WINNEBAGO IL TRAINED SPOTTER

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES AT HARLEM AND ROUTE 251.


&&

$$
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
well its official 09/10 winter in grt lakes region has been the 9th warmest on record with a 2.1 degrees above normal based upon the 63 years of records on file also to note been a dry winter with only 34 cm of snow entire season spring looks to be milder than normal as well with continuing dry conditions with some sporatic rains at the moment summer looks to be hot and dry for 2010 but of coarse things can and will change stay tune


I live in the great lakes region and my winter was no way near the 9th warmest on record

Quoting MrstormX:
Nasty cell near Chicago, severe hail detected by radar. Im surprised the NWS in Romeoville has yet to issue a warning. BTW Romeoville is real close too the storm.





where are you from?

Im in West Lafayette Indiana
Quoting tornadodude:


I live in the great lakes region and my winter was no way near the 9th warmest on record

TD thats as per david philips head forecaster of enviroment canada ontario region
Quoting tornadodude:


where are you from?

Im in West Lafayette Indiana


Homewood, a south suburb of Chicago... Looks like Indiana is getting the brunt of the storms, what are conditions like by you?
Quoting MrstormX:


Homewood, a south suburb of Chicago... Looks like Indiana is getting the brunt of the storms, what are conditions like by you?


yeah, we have had thunderstorms for that last two hours. Nothing too bad, had some small hail earlier, but nothing severe
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
TD thats as per david philips head forecaster of enviroment canada ontario region


oh ok
Looks like the bay just split the line of storms in half. I hope we do get some rain to knock down the tree pollen down here in Manatee.

ssd shows a 1000mb low around 27N 94W

guess StormW was right
Quoting tornadodude:


yeah, we have had thunderstorms for that last two hours. Nothing too bad, had some small hail earlier, but nothing severe


Yah we had one roll through earlier, but very mild. Im not ruling out an isolated severe storm though, but if its going to form its going to have to form soon.
Quoting MrstormX:


Yah we had one roll through earlier, but very mild. Im not ruling out an isolated severe storm though, but if its going to form its going to have to form soon.


yeah agreed. there have been a few returns up to 65 DB on the NWS radar around my area, which usually brings severe hail, but no warnings
actually there is a storm between US highway 41 and interstate 65 southwest of Rensselaer that may have some rotation


link
Can someone post a link to the quickscat of the brazlian storm... oh wait... nevermind.
Quoting Dakster:
Can someone post a link to the quickscat of the brazlian storm... oh wait... nevermind.


Half of it...lol. We still have WindSat don't forget.

Quoting tornadodude:


I live in the great lakes region and my winter was no way near the 9th warmest on record



That's why they called it the upside-down winter.

Quoting tornadodude:
actually there is a storm between US highway 41 and interstate 65 southwest of Rensselaer that may have some rotation


link


Hmm, are any thunderstorms expected in S. Ontario tomorrow?
692
NWUS52 KTBW 112357
LSRTBW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
657 PM EST THU MAR 11 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0455 PM TORNADO 5 ESE HAINES CITY 28.07N 81.55W
03/11/2010 POLK FL EMERGENCY MNGR

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT RELAYED REPORT OF TORNADO DAMAGE IN
THE GRENELEFE RESORT. TREES DOWN ACROSS ROADS AND ROOF
WAS TORN OFF APT BUILDING.


&&

Quoting tornadodude:
actually there is a storm between US highway 41 and interstate 65 southwest of Rensselaer that may have some rotation


link


Sorry my computer malfunctioned, is there still roatation.
261
NWUS52 KTBW 120009
LSRTBW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
709 PM EST THU MAR 11 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0450 PM TORNADO 1 ENE AUBURNDALE 28.08N 81.78W
03/11/2010 POLK FL EMERGENCY MNGR

TORNADO TOUCHDOWN REPORTED NEAR LAKE ARIANA AND THEN
SECOND TOUCHDOWN NEAR LAKE MARIAM. MINOR DAMAGE REPORTED
WITH POWER LINES DOWN.


&&

$$
304. WAHA
Quoting JeffMasters:


Tropical and subtropical storms are so rare in the South Atlantic that there is no official naming of depressions or storms done.



em>

ARE YOU KIDDING ME? IT'S RIGHT HERE! CLICK ON IT!!!
Quoting MrstormX:


Sorry my computer malfunctioned, is there still roatation.


no not anymore, but if you look at this radar, you can see a broad rotation with the storm that has since weakened significantly.

link
306. WAHA
90Q IS ABREW!!!
Quoting WAHA:

ARE YOU KIDDING ME? IT'S RIGHT HERE! CLICK ON IT!!!
Quoting WAHA:
90Q IS ABREW!!!


Just because there isn't a list doesn't mean you can just make one up and say it's Abrew. It's officially un-named. That's what it will be considered in history unless they do decide to make a naming system. For now though it has no name.
Quoting WAHA:
90Q IS ABREW!!!


However, this is not from an official list, which is what the South Atlantic still needs as they don't have one yet.
Indiana storms are starting to weaken but a new line of storms has formed across east-central Illinois.


Quoting MrstormX:
Indiana storms are starting to weaken but a new line of storms has formed across east-central Illinois.




yeah I see that, nothing remotely close to being worth a chase
312. WAHA
Quoting Levi32:


Just because there isn't a list doesn't mean you can just make one up and say it's Abrew. It's officially un-named. That's what it will be considered in history unless they do decide to make a naming system. For now though it has no name.
Oh man. I have been calling it Abrew this whole time, but noone listens to me! Is there any other list of names made up earlier than this month? I think not. But...
...i DID send the naming list to the comitee of NOAA, and they're (hopefully) looking at it right now. So it might in the future be renamed "Abrew" by the NHC.
Quoting tornadodude:


yeah I see that, nothing remotely close to being worth a chase


Haha no nothing special, some small hail around I-57 but no strong rotation. I might take a few pics if one rolls over my house but its too dark for anything exciting.
Quoting AstroHurricane001:


However, this is not from an official list, which is what the South Atlantic still needs as they don't have one yet.


one day there will be two new basins added to the list

south atlatic basin
med sea basin
Quoting MrstormX:


Haha no nothing special, some small hail around I-57 but no strong rotation. I might take a few pics if one rolls over my house but its too dark for anything exciting.


haha yeah, oh well, beats the snow!
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


one day there will be two new basins added to the list

south atlatic basin
med sea basin


2012 LOL
319. WAHA
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


one day there will be two new basins added to the list

south atlatic basin
med sea basin
:-D!
000
NWUS53 KLOT 120022
LSRLOT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
622 PM CST THU MAR 11 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0607 PM HAIL MAZON 41.24N 88.42W
03/11/2010 E0.25 INCH GRUNDY IL EMERGENCY MNGR


&&

$$



Hey StormW..do you agree with Levi32 that this hurricane season might be very active this year?
troy, I already told Levi, that I would drag him down here during the main part of the season. If its as bad as some forecasters are saying, then who knows what will happen. This winter/summer bares some resemblence to what we saw at the start of 05 even though the abnormalities off of Africa are odd at the least.
Quoting StormW:
5 days old...but:







Hurricane Season Could Be 'Extreme,' Forecaster Says


(March 11) -- AccuWeather.com, which just issued its early hurricane season forecast, not only believes that the 2010 season will be more active than last year, but the private company sees the potential for an "extreme season" with an above-normal threat all along the Atlantic and Gulf coasts.

The forecast was led by chief long-range meteorologist and hurricane forecaster Joe Bastardi, who believes that this year will be more like the 2008 hurricane season than the much quieter 2009 season. In 2008, there were 17 named storms, eight of which were hurricanes, including the major hurricane Ike that ravaged the upper Texas coast. In 2009, only two storms (one of which was a hurricane) made landfall, both along the Gulf Coast, making it the least active Atlantic hurricane season since 1997.
Would that be an edie of sorts forming just south of Jamaica? That would be a weird spot to have it located, normally around the area of the Yucatan Channel. Not used to seeing temps around Jamiaca that warm, water wise.
I swear if that comes true, I am going to turn myself into an ostrich and bury my head in the sand.
Latest on IL/IN radar

Keeper, you mind explaining what the graphics mean. Might help a bit.
331. WAHA
Quoting plywoodstatenative:
I swear if that comes true, I am going to turn myself into an ostrich and bury my head in the sand.

You have a machine for that?
So North atlanic tropical cyclones on march... isn't there only one on record...
.... thats all I am saying.
335. WAHA
Quoting MrstormX:
So North atlanic tropical cyclones on march... isn't there only one on record...

There's also Cyclone Aldonca...oh yeah, well that's in all areas in the Atlantic.
check out the cell to the west of Terre Haute


http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=N0S&rid=IND&loop=yes
Quoting tornadodude:
check out the cell to the west of Terre Haute


http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=N0S&rid=IND&loop=yes


I'm actually looking at it now, doppler is picking a hail core within.
Quoting plywoodstatenative:
Keeper, you mind explaining what the graphics mean. Might help a bit.
top two are sst for GOM and CARB. the bottom one is TCHP or tropical cyclone heat potenial or 26 degree isoterm
Quoting MrstormX:


I'm actually looking at it now, doppler is picking a hail core within.


it looks like probably the best developed one we have had in the area all day, am gonna watch it for rotation
Quoting tornadodude:


it looks like probably the best developed one we have had in the area all day


Info: Top is at ~20,000ft (probably higher as no radar is all to close), 80% chance of severe hail, 100% chance of hail, max hail: 0.75 in.





Work needs to be done all across the board in the next month to catch up to these April 11 levels...think we'll make it?
Quoting MrstormX:


Info: Top is at ~20,000ft (probably higher as no radar is all to close), 80% chance of severe hail, 100% chance of hail, max hail: 0.75 in.


yeah, it is really well developed
It seems odd no Severe T'storm warnings have been issued with these storms, storm reports are piling in from all across the region.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


one day there will be two new basins added to the list

south atlatic basin
med sea basin


You forgot about the Arctic basin, the Caspian basin, the Amazonian basin, the South Australian basin, the Ross basin, and the Baltic basin!
Quoting MrstormX:
It seems odd no Severe T'storm warnings have been issued with these storms, storm reports are piling in from all across the region.


yeah I done understand it, oh well
Very strong storm near Coal City, IL.
Great Lakes basin
Danube basin
Aral sea basin
Red sea basin
Indonesian basin
Bay of Hudson basin
Antarctican basin
Thames basin
North Sea basin
Lake Chad basin
Black Sea basin
Manitoba basin
Rio Grande basin
Kangaroo basin

The list goes on.
Quoting tornadodude:


2012 LOL


The South Atlantic wasn't even expected to open up until the 2070's. And there have been a few Mediterranean TC's already.

Quoting StormW:
SST Anomalies MAR 11, 2010



The Loop Current still sits directly to the west of the extreme cold zone west of Florida. As the GOM warms, could this cold water become trapped underneath the warmer surface layer and create shear and tornadoes later in the season if upwelling due to any hurricanes causes that cold water to rise to the surface?
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
438 PM CST THU MAR 11 2010

ILZ003>006-008-010>014-019>023-032-033-039-INZ001-002-010-011-019-
122245-
WINNEBAGO-BOONE-MCHENRY-LAKE ILLINOIS-OGLE-LEE-DE KALB-KANE-
DUPAGE-COOK-LA SALLE-KENDALL-GRUNDY-WILL-KANKAKEE-LIVINGSTON-
IROQUOIS-FORD-LAKE INDIANA-PORTER-NEWTON-JASPER-BENTON-
438 PM CST THU MAR 11 2010 /538 PM EST THU MAR 11 2010/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...
NORTHEAST ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED:

THUNDERSTORMS WITH SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.

AREAS AFFECTED AND TIMING:

NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA THIS EVENING.

DISCUSSION:

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE REDEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE AREA...AND SOME OF THESE STORMS ARE JUST BELOW SEVERE
THRESHOLDS
. HAIL TO THE SIZE OF NICKLES HAS BEEN REPORTED SO
FAR...AND AN ISOLATED REPORT OF ONE INCH DIAMETER HAIL WOULD NOT
BE A SURPRISE BEFORE THIS ACTIVITY DISSIPATES LATER THIS
EVENING.

Quoting MrstormX:
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
438 PM CST THU MAR 11 2010

ILZ003>006-008-010>014-019>023-032-033-039-INZ001-002-010-011-019-
122245-
WINNEBAGO-BOONE-MCHENRY-LAKE ILLINOIS-OGLE-LEE-DE KALB-KANE-
DUPAGE-COOK-LA SALLE-KENDALL-GRUNDY-WILL-KANKAKEE-LIVINGSTON-
IROQUOIS-FORD-LAKE INDIANA-PORTER-NEWTON-JASPER-BENTON-
438 PM CST THU MAR 11 2010 /538 PM EST THU MAR 11 2010/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...
NORTHEAST ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED:

THUNDERSTORMS WITH SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.

AREAS AFFECTED AND TIMING:

NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA THIS EVENING.

DISCUSSION:

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE REDEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE AREA...AND SOME OF THESE STORMS ARE JUST BELOW SEVERE
THRESHOLDS
. HAIL TO THE SIZE OF NICKLES HAS BEEN REPORTED SO
FAR...AND AN ISOLATED REPORT OF ONE INCH DIAMETER HAIL WOULD NOT
BE A SURPRISE BEFORE THIS ACTIVITY DISSIPATES LATER THIS
EVENING.



figures lol
Quoting tornadodude:


figures lol


Oh well, i'll take it over the snow
Quoting MrstormX:


Oh well, i'll take it over the snow


no doubt, I have two storms headed my way. the one by Terre Haute and another NE of it
Quoting tornadodude:


no doubt, I have two storms headed my way. the one by Terre Haute and another NE of it


Awesome, if there actually is severe "qualities" in those storms make sure to make a report to NWS. Thats what I often do, although sometimes I think they ignore me lol
Quoting AstroHurricane001:


The South Atlantic wasn't even expected to open up until the 2070's. And there have been a few Mediterranean TC's already.



The Loop Current still sits directly to the west of the extreme cold zone west of Florida. As the GOM warms, could this cold water become trapped underneath the warmer surface layer and create shear and tornadoes later in the season if upwelling due to any hurricanes causes that cold water to rise to the surface?

Huh?!? A cold water trail in the gulf after a passing TC isn't going to create shear or nadoes! If nothing else, it might take away a bit of water vapor and temperature, and thus, instability...but on a very small scale.


That line of storms is coming right for me, its a bit exciting even if they aren't "severe"
Storm near Gilman, IL ia at 23,000 ft., 90% chance hail, 0.50 in. hail size and very slight rotation.
Quoting atmoaggie:

Huh?!? A cold water trail in the gulf after a passing TC isn't going to create shear or nadoes! If nothing else, it might take away a bit of water vapor and temperature, and thus, instability...but on a very small scale.

I think he means local shear which helps thunderstorm development (at least in small amounts) and tornadoes are small scale
Quoting altesticstorm10:
Great Lakes basin
Danube basin
Aral sea basin
Red sea basin
Indonesian basin
Bay of Hudson basin
Antarctican basin
Thames basin
North Sea basin
Lake Chad basin
Black Sea basin
Manitoba basin
Rio Grande basin
Kangaroo basin

The list goes on.


Great Lakes basin...that reminds me: Link
Quoting atmoaggie:

Huh?!? A cold water trail in the gulf after a passing TC isn't going to create shear or nadoes! If nothing else, it might take away a bit of water vapor and temperature, and thus, instability...but on a very small scale.


I meant that due to the colder water directly offshore (I heard that water temperatures in Tampa Bay were oddly layered with warm and cold), this could get buried underneath the warm surface layer, and resurface if a hurricane makes landfall in the area. Should this occur, a cold water trail would be left behind, and late in the season the contrast between the warm and could surface water would create higher shear in the Tampa area and contribute to vertical shear during the passage of a tropical cyclone or extratropical frontal system, increasing the likelihood for tornadoes. Is this scenario plausible for this year?
Quoting AstroHurricane001:


I meant that due to the colder water directly offshore (I heard that water temperatures in Tampa Bay were oddly layered with warm and cold), this could get buried underneath the warm surface layer, and resurface if a hurricane makes landfall in the area. Should this occur, a cold water trail would be left behind, and late in the season the contrast between the warm and could surface water would create higher shear in the Tampa area and contribute to vertical shear during the passage of a tropical cyclone or extratropical frontal system, increasing the likelihood for tornadoes. Is this scenario plausible for this year?

Sorry, I am getting stuck with the notion of an area of colder than normal waters in the Gulf affecting the winds at 300 mb and up, part of any shear equation in the context of severe weather. Not working for me...unless maybe the entire gulf did something whack.
Quoting atmoaggie:

Sorry, I am getting stuck with the notion of an area of colder than normal waters in the Gulf affecting the winds at 300 mb and up, part of any shear equation in the context of severe weather. Not working for me...unless maybe the entire gulf did something whack.


In past years, the northern coastal regions of the GOM would cool close to 20C in late season, forming a temperature gradient in SSTs as well as in the higher troposphere. Since this served as a barrier for most tropical cyclones, could this more localized effect west of Florida generate similar shear conditions that could produce tornadoes across the state as they progress eastward from the shear zone. Also, looking at how large Bill (Atlantic, August) and Nida (West Pacific, November) were in 2009, I'm thinking that we could see Atlantic storms perhaps as large as 12 degrees of longitude threatening the East Coast in 2010.
Quoting AstroHurricane001:


In past years, the northern coastal regions of the GOM would cool close to 20C in late season, forming a temperature gradient in SSTs as well as in the higher troposphere. Since this served as a barrier for most tropical cyclones, could this more localized effect west of Florida generate similar shear conditions that could produce tornadoes across the state as they progress eastward from the shear zone. Also, looking at how large Bill (Atlantic, August) and Nida (West Pacific, November) were in 2009, I'm thinking that we could see Atlantic storms perhaps as large as 12 degrees of longitude threatening the East Coast in 2010.

Sorry, our upper level winds are from the NW...almost all of the time. The gulf waters don't do that here late in hurricane season, cold fronts do.

And I have a real problem believing in Gulf surface waters having anything to do upper level temps or winds, outside of a bout of strong convection from a frontal lift...but would have the opposite effect...I think.

This is new to me though, never heard of, or considered, surface water temps having any effect whatsoever on upper level parameters in the same region.
Making a Splash with Satellite Hydrology
Posted on Mar 10, 2010 08:10:08 AM | NASA's Earth Science News Team




It has long been suspected that dams and reservoirs provide extra moisture to the atmosphere and increase rainfall in the area around the reservoir. In December 2009, Faisal Hossain, of Tennessee Technological University, demonstrated that certain dams could make such rainfall events more extreme and frequent. The research catapulted Faisal and his research group -- Sustainability, Satellites, Water and Environment (SASWE) -- into the media spotlight, including a February 2010 interview with The Naked Scientists that aired live on the BBC and a feature in National Geographic News.

Hossain and his SASWE group -- largely funded by NASA grants -- also work to improve the ability of developing nations to monitor water resources that cross national boundaries. In April 2010, the group will be recognized by the National Association of Environmental Professionals with an education excellence award. WhatOnEarth caught up with Hossain to learn more about the group's work and outreach efforts.

WhatOnEarth: What is satellite hydrology?


A Closer Look at Dust

Posted on Mar 08, 2010 01:05:08 PM | NASA's Earth Science News Team

WhatOnEarth: Really? What does dust have to do with precipitation?

Wilcox: The main pathway for dust off the Sahara is usually well north of the band of tropical Atlantic rain storms. However, dust storms coincide with a strong warming of the lower atmosphere, so the atmospheric circulation over the ocean responds to that warming by shifting wind and rainfall patterns northward during the summer. The rainfall responds to the passage of a dust storm even if the dust does not mix with the rain.
WhatOnEarth: What is satellite hydrology?

It's a cookbook!!! :)
The storms don't seem too mad atm but daytime heating will change that. Hope I can get around no problem tomorrow gonna be out and about and not have to wait in a car for 10 mins for rain to subside.
Rising Temperatures in the Midst of Heavy Snow?

The decade from 2000 to 2009 was the warmest in the modern record. "Piecing Together the Temperature Puzzle" illustrates how NASA satellites enable us to study possible causes of climate change. The video explains what role fluctuations in the solar cycle, changes in snow and cloud cover, and rising levels of heat-trapping gases may play in contributing to climate change.

For more info on NASA and Climate Change, visit:
http://climate.nasa.gov


Rumbles of thunder. Haven't heard that in a while.
Quoting atmoaggie:

Sorry, our upper level winds are from the NW...almost all of the time. The gulf waters don't do that here late in hurricane season, cold fronts do.

And I have a real problem believing in Gulf surface waters having anything to do upper level temps or winds, outside of a bout of strong convection from a frontal lift...but would have the opposite effect...I think.

This is new to me though, never heard of, or considered, surface water temps having any effect whatsoever on upper level parameters in the same region.


Well all I can think of at the moment is that warmer water in the gulf promotes stronger convection, which releases more latent heat into the atmosphere. If the thunderstorm tops are up to the 300mb level or higher, then it could result in a net increase in temperature at that level due to the release of latent heat.

The opposite is true of colder water in the gulf, which does not support as strong convection than if the water was warmer. This means a relative decrease in latent heat released into the atmosphere, which can result in cooler temperature aloft than if the water was warmer.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
WhatOnEarth: What is satellite hydrology?

It's a cookbook!!! :)


To serve what? TZ
Residents of the U.S. Gulf coast thought they were getting a break this hurricane season until they heard news of Ida. Fortunately, Ida weakened substantially and was downgraded to a Tropical Storm as she prepared to make landfall. This video from the NASA/NOAA GOES satellites shows Ida's development between November 6th and 9th 2009.


We all contribute To Serve Man kind Mr. Chambers.
NASA has released a video of Hurricane Bill today from the GOES-14 satellite. The video was put together from a series of still frames taken by the satellite using both infrared and visible imagery and provides different views of Hurricane Bill on August 20.

Earlier this summer, NASA launched the latest Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite, GOES-O. Recently operations have been turned over to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the satellite was renamed GOES-14. The satellite is still being tested in orbit, and it captured video of Hurricane Bill on August 20, while it was on its way to Bermuda.

The spectacular video is a collection of a few quick movies put together by the GOES-14 team from the NASA GOES Project at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Md.

The video includes an impressive zoom-out, showing how big the hurricane is, relative to the hemisphere. Bill is a large hurricane, more than 1,200 kilometers (746 miles) across, and the storms partially cloud-filled eye is nearly 50 kilometers (31 miles) wide.


Here comes the rain!
Anyone is South Florida notice how fast the clouds are moving North. Very similiar to when a strong low is forming. Very hot and muggy night and strange. Looks like the Twilight Zone.
Quoting Grothar:


To serve what? TZ


Hawk!!!!
How will this Hurricane season turn out???

382. flsky
Quoting StormW:


Levi and I are in full concurrence.

Aren't you supposed to say "dat's right" hahaha
Quoting Levi32:


Well all I can think of at the moment is that warmer water in the gulf promotes stronger convection, which releases more latent heat into the atmosphere. If the thunderstorm tops are up to the 300mb level or higher, then it could result in a net increase in temperature at that level due to the release of latent heat.

The opposite is true of colder water in the gulf, which does not support as strong convection than if the water was warmer. This means a relative decrease in latent heat released into the atmosphere, which can result in cooler temperature aloft than if the water was warmer.

Yeah, any effect would be in the other direction...for the same reasons that hurricanes usually weaken, or at least cease intensifying, when the cross the cold water trail of another TC. Same thing for a stationary TC, usually, too.
Don't get on the spaceship Canes!
StormW cannot type the word "dat's" anymore. :) At least during Hurricane season.
Cool, cosmic rays can trigger lightning.

It should follow that we'd have more lightning in years of less solar wind--since the solar wind helps shield us from cosmic rays.

I don't go for the cosmic ray climate change connection, though.

A lot of training going on...is this supposed to continue tomorrow?

Quoting Grothar:
Anyone is South Florida notice how fast the clouds are moving North. Very similiar to when a strong low is forming. Very hot and muggy night and strange. Looks like the Twilight Zone.


Damn. Beat me to the punch. lol

Been noticing that throughout the evening when venturing outside my house. Winds have been coming on strong from the south all day, indicative of a strong warm front. Seems like the storms have halted their advance southward down the peninsula as the warm front will soon slowly return northward before the cold front coming tomorrow night.
New sounding observations are in for South Florida from the Miami station and they look more impressive and even ominous for overnight and tomorrow.

In plain English cchs please....
Pretty graphs, but what do they mean?
Quoting cchsweatherman:
New sounding observations are in for South Florida from the Miami station and they look more impressive and even ominous for overnight and tomorrow.



They may look ominous to you, but they look like my son's drawings when he was in 1st grade. What do they mean?
393. beell
SPC noting veered wind fields (all levels from the SW) over S FL tomorrow. And the ongoing line of convection serving as a boundary across central FL. Parallel to the wind field. With PWATS at 2", training rains a possibility with a somewhat slow southward moving boundary.

Embedded rotating cells in a strongly sheared line have a hard time extending a circulation to the surface. You get the warning, but not the tornado. The tornadoes produced in this fashion are usually short-lived and weak.

But it only takes one.

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1134 AM CST THU MAR 11 2010

FL PENINSULA/FL KEYS...
FULL-PERIOD SEVERE RISK IS PROBABLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD TO
HALF OF THE FL PENINSULA/PERHAPS FL KEYS ON FRIDAY. EXTENSIVE
COVERAGE OF EARLY DAY SHOWERS/TSTMS
...WITH AT LEAST SOME ISOLATED
SEVERE THREAT...SHOULD SERVE TO ESTABLISH/REINFORCE AN EFFECTIVE
WARM FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL FL PENINSULA
. PRESENT THINKING AGREES
WITH INITIAL DAY 2 OUTLOOK FOR S FL...WHERE ADDITIONAL MOISTENING OF
THE BOUNDARY LAYER /LOWER 70S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS/ AND POCKETS OF
HEATING SOUTH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT SHOULD SUPPORT A
DAYTIME UPSWING IN DEEP CONVECTIVE VIGOR. THIS WILL BE COINCIDENT
WITH GRADUAL HEIGHT FALLS AND THE APPROACH OF A MID LEVEL IMPULSE.
WHILE LOW LEVEL FLOW MAY TEND TO VEER /BUT STRENGTHEN/ DURING THE
DAY...VERY STRONG DEEP TROPOSPHERIC WIND FIELDS WILL SUPPORT A MIXED
MODE OF SEMI-DISCRETE HIGH PRECIPITATION SUPERCELLS AND/OR LINEAR
EMBEDDED BOWS
...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF TORNADOES/DAMAGING WINDS AS
THE PRIMARY CONCERNS.
Quoting cchsweatherman:


Damn. Beat me to the punch. lol

Been noticing that throughout the evening when venturing outside my house. Winds have been coming on strong from the south all day, indicative of a strong warm front. Seems like the storms have halted their advance southward down the peninsula as the warm front will soon slowly return northward before the cold front coming tomorrow night.


It is the first time it looks like a typical summer-like pattern outside. Hot, muggy, and ominous.
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #6
TROPICAL CYCLONE TOMAS (14F)
12:00 PM FST March 12 2010
======================================

For Wallis and Futuna
======================
GALE WIND WARNING IS NOW IN FORCE FOR WALLIS

A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT REMAINS IN FORCE FOR FUTUNA

A STRONG WIND WARNING IS NOW IN FORCE FOR FUTUNA.


For Fiji and Rotuma
====================
A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT IS NOW IN FORCE FOR THE NORTHERN VANUA LEVU AND CIKOBIA

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Thomas (995 hPa) located at 10.6S 176.3W has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots. Position POOR based on hourly GMS/GOES enhanced infrared radar/visible imagery with animation. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 6 knots.

Organization has improved past 12 hours. The system lies over a weakly sheared and diffluent environment. Sea surface temperature is 30C. System steered west-southwest by northeast deep layer mean flow.

Dvorak analysis based on 0.6 wrap on LOG10 spiral yielding DT 3.0

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24HRS

Global models agree on west southwest track and intensification.

Forecast and Intensity
========================
12 HRS: 11.1S 177.4W - 45 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS: 11.9S 178.2W - 55 knots (CAT 2)
48 HRS: 14.3S 179.7W - 75 knots (CAT 3)

The Next Tropical Disturbance Advisory On TC TOMAS Will Be Issued At Around 8:30 AM UTC...
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13F
12:00 PM FST March 12 2010
======================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression 13 (999 hPa) located at 14.9S 166.3E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. Position POOR based on hourly GMS enhanced infrared radar imagery and peripheral surface reports. The depression is reported as moving slowly.

Organization has improved over the last 12 hours. The system lies in a moderately sheared environment. Sea surface temperature is around 30C.

Dvorak analysis based on 0.55 wrap on LOG10 spiral yielding DT 2.5

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24HRS

EC global model expected the system to move west-northwest and intensify.

Forecast and Intensity
========================
12 HRS: 14.4S 165.1E - 35 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS: 13.6S 163.7E - 50 knots (CAT 2)
48 HRS: 12.9S 161.0E - 70 knots (CAT 3)

The Next Tropical Disturbance Advisory On TD 13F Will Be Issued At Around 9:00 AM UTC...
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
In plain English cchs please....


No problem Grothar.

When you look at the main graph on a forecast sounding, it shows you both the actual temperature (in red) and the dewpoint temperature (in green) in all layers of the atmosphere. Note how the dewpoint line and the temperature line are quite close near the surface. This shows that the atmosphere has become quite humid at the surface. This is also indicated with the PW (precipitable water) which is registering at 1.77 inches, well above normal for this time of year. Overall, the atmosphere continues to become more moist.

In addition, note the CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) values. The higher the CAPE value, the more risk for thunderstorms there exists. The CAPE values have risen to above 1000 J/Kg and continue to rise steadily. Pretty much what this means is that the atmosphere is continuing to become more conducive for thunderstorm development.

A few other values that are important are the K (Sweat) Index and the SRH (Shear) values. Whenever the Sweat Index reaches double digits, this means that thunderstorms are likely. The higher the number, the more severe the storms could develop. Right now the Sweat Index rests at 38, which is conducive for severe storms. In addition, the current Shear values indicate that there's sufficient shear to support supercell thunderstorms and possibly even isolated tornadoes.

So, all in all, the current soundings indicate that the atmosphere over South Florida continues to become more unstable and thus more conducive to severe weather.

Right click and display in new window helps. The green line in the top left graph is the dewpoint plotted against pressure. Looks like dry air around 700 mb that could help form hail by evaporative cooling and also generate strong downdrafts of cold air. Also the air cools faster (red line) than a moist air parcel would cool (dotted line). The upper right diagram shows wind speed and direction with altitude. Notice the colors on the right side of the upper left graph match the colors on the upper right diagram.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Pretty graphs, but what do they mean?

Colder drier air in the lower levels, leads to strong, building thunderstorms, with possible large hail. The wind changing direction with height (wind shear) just makes the storms more potent, helps the storms to rotate, leading to possible tornadoes.


don't look good for Fiji Islands early next week. (Looking at that category 4 forecast on the map)
Quoting cchsweatherman:


No problem Grothar.

When you look at the main graph on a forecast sounding, it shows you both the actual temperature (in red) and the dewpoint temperature (in green) in all layers of the atmosphere. Note how the dewpoint line and the temperature line are quite close near the surface. This shows that the atmosphere has become quite humid at the surface. This is also indicated with the PW (precipitable water) which is registering at 1.77 inches, well above normal for this time of year. Overall, the atmosphere continues to become more moist.

In addition, note the CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) values. The higher the CAPE value, the more risk for thunderstorms there exists. The CAPE values have risen to above 1000 J/Kg and continue to rise steadily. Pretty much what this means is that the atmosphere is continuing to become more conducive for thunderstorm development.

A few other values that are important are the K (Sweat) Index and the SRH (Shear) values. Whenever the Sweat Index reaches double digits, this means that thunderstorms are likely. The higher the number, the more severe the storms could develop. Right now the Sweat Index rests at 38, which is conducive for severe storms. In addition, the current Shear values indicate that there's sufficient shear to support supercell thunderstorms and possibly even isolated tornadoes.

So, all in all, the current soundings indicate that the atmosphere over South Florida continues to become more unstable and thus more conducive to severe weather.



Thanks CC. That does sound ominous. Of course I am having my trees trimmed tomorrow. In all honesty, it does look ominous even now. By the way, it was GeoffWPB you quoted. I would never be that gruff! LOl Just joking.
Lots of info on there. Forecasted cape over 2000. See warm air from south moving in. Cold air advection indicated higher up. That would account for the increase in cape if current cape is about 800.
I may be gruff...but I am loveable :)
Quoting Grothar:


Thanks CC. That does sound ominous. Of course I am having my trees trimmed tomorrow. In all honesty, it does look ominous even now. By the way, it was GeoffWPB you quoted. I would never be that gruff! LOl Just joking.


Oh, my bad. Been a long day tracking these storms and analyzing all these observations and computer models. lol
Quoting cchsweatherman:


Oh, my bad. Been a long day tracking these storms and analyzing all these observations and computer models. lol


No need to apologize. Just jealous I can't read them.
Quoting cchsweatherman:


Oh, my bad. Been a long day tracking these storms and analyzing all these observations and computer models. lol


So what you are saying is, this is what we expect to be in our vicinity tomorrow?

Quoting Grothar:


So what you are saying is, this is what we expect to be in our vicinity tomorrow?



Whats appearing on radar over the Gulf of Mexico is not really strong thunderstorms, but rather an active subtropical jet stream. Things will look different by morning as we will see widespread scattered strong storms during the morning and early afternoon with a strong squall line coming through during the afternoon and evening hours.
Yikes...that's a nasty looking front. Surprised no reports from our friends up in north Fla. on the weather.
Sounds like a squall line coming through Lake Worth now!
SPECIAL MARINE WARNING
AMZ252-254-256-120500-
/O.NEW.KILM.MA.W.0001.100312T0408Z-100312T0500Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SPECIAL MARINE WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1108 PM EST THU MAR 11 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON NC HAS ISSUED A

* SPECIAL MARINE WARNING FOR...
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE FEAR NC TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SC OUT 20 NM

* UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST

* AT 1104 PM EST...AN AREA OF STRONG EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS GUSTING
OVER 40 KNOTS HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE BACK EDGE OF AN AREA OF
RAIN. THESE WINDS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH MIDNIGHT FOR AREAS
WITHIN 10 TO 20 MILES OF SHORE.

* THESE STRONG WINDS WILL BE NEAR
7 NM NORTH OF MYRTLE BEACH ROCK BY 1110 PM...
2 NM WEST OF LITTLE RIVER REEF BY MIDNIGHT...

UNLIKE IN A THUNDERSTORM...THERE IS NO VISIBLE CLOUD FEATURE OR
LIGHTNING PRECEDING THE STRONG WINDS. MARINERS SHOULD MAKE
PREPARATION FOR THESE INCREASED WIND SPEEDS NOW.

LAT...LON 3350 7908 3374 7885 3385 7863 3388 7817
3343 7871 3315 7889 3318 7915
TIME...MOT...LOC 0405Z 259DEG 19KT 3375 7889

$$

TRA


SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1103 PM EST THU MAR 11 2010

NCZ100-SCZ034-046-120500-
BRUNSWICK-HORRY-GEORGETOWN-
1103 PM EST THU MAR 11 2010

...BRIEF PERIOD OF STRONG WIND GUSTS NEAR THE COAST...

A 30 TO 60 MINUTE PERIOD OF STRONG EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS HAS
DEVELOPED ALONG THE BACK EDGE OF AN AREA OF RAIN ALONG THE SOUTH
CAROLINA COASTLINE. THIS WEATHER PHENOMENA IS CALLED A GRAVITY
WAVE
...AND WILL BRING WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 40 TO 45 MPH TO COASTAL
GEORGETOWN...HORRY AND BRUNSWICK COUNTIES THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

COMMUNITIES IN THE PATH OF THESE STRONG WINDS INCLUDE GARDEN
CITY...LITTLE RIVER...MURRELLS INLET...MYRTLE BEACH...NORTH MYRTLE
BEACH...SOCASTEE...SURFSIDE BEACH... BROOKSVILLE...BURGESS...
CALABASH...CHERRY GROVE BEACH AND FORESTBROOK.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO ALL HAZARDS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR
UPDATES. FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION...CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT
WEATHER.GOV/ILM.

$$

TRA

Some interestingly nasty weather along the southern NC and northern SC coast tonight.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Yikes...that's a nasty looking front. Surprised no reports from our friends up in north Fla. on the weather.


If you relate the satellite imagery with radar imagery, you'll see that what may appear impressive on satellite isn't translating into action. That expansive stream coming across the GOM is the subtropical jet which serves to transport moisture and disturbances.
Absolutely right cchs. My mistake.
Well, I'm heading to bed folks. Need to be rested for tomorrow's storm tracking.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Yikes...that's a nasty looking front. Surprised no reports from our friends up in north Fla. on the weather.


That said it was N-A-S-T-Y NASTY here today in Gainesville
I had some pea to marble sized hail around 830 this evening as I was walking to dinner, definitely was entertaining.


hey Oz,

you on?
Hi Matt...you going to Hurricane chase with Oz this season?
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Hi Matt...you going to Hurricane chase with Oz this season?


hey there,

actually probably not, Im going to be doing tornado chasing
Melbourne NWS got their preliminary storm damage report out.

King ~ pretty neat about the gravity wave.


VS

THIS YEARS (SST) IS ALMOST THE SAME TO 2005 (SST)....SCARY
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #7
TROPICAL CYCLONE TOMAS (14F)
18:00 PM FST March 12 2010
======================================

For Wallis and Futuna
======================
A GALE WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR WALLIS.

A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT REMAINS IN FORCE FOR FUTUNA.

A STRONG WIND WARNING IS NOW IN FORCE FOR FUTUNA.


For Fiji and Rotuma
====================
A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT IS NOW IN FORCE FOR THE NORTHERN VANUA LEVU AND CIKOBIA.

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Thomas (990 hPa) located at 11.2S 176.5W has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots. Position POOR based on hourly GMS/GOES enhanced infrared radar/visible imagery with animation. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 6 knots.

Gale Force Winds
================
150 NM from the center

Organization steadily improving. Primary bands consolidating and wrapping tightly around low level circulation center. The system lies over a weakly sheared and diffluent environment. Outflow good to east and north, developing elsewhere. Sea surface temperature is 30C. System steered west-southwest by northeast deep layer mean flow.

Dvorak analysis based on 0.7 wrap on LOG10 spiral yielding DT 3.0

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24HRS

Global models agree on west southwest track and intensification.

Forecast and Intensity
========================
12 HRS: 11.7S 177.3W - 50 knots (CAT 2)
24 HRS: 12.6S 178.1W - 60 knots (CAT 2)
48 HRS: 15.1S 179.3W- 75 knots (CAT 3)

The Next Tropical Disturbance Advisory On TC TOMAS Will Be Issued At Around 14:30 PM UTC...
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13F
18:00 PM FST March 12 2010
======================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression 13 (997 hPa) located at 15.0S 165.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. Position POOR based on hourly GMS enhanced infrared radar/visible imagery with animation. The depression is reported as west at 9 knots.

Organization steady past 6 hours. Deep convection warmed past 6 hours. The system lies in a moderately sheared environment. Sea surface temperature is around 30C. Depression steered westward by east to southeast deep layer mean flow.

Dvorak analysis based on 0.4 wrap on LOG10 spiral yielding DT 2.5

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24HRS

Global models agree on a west-northwest track with intensification.

Forecast and Intensity
========================
12 HRS: 14.4S 164.3E - 35 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS: 13.9S 163.1E - 50 knots (CAT 2)
48 HRS: 13.5S 161.0E - 70 knots (CAT 3)

The Next Tropical Disturbance Advisory On TD 13F Will Be Issued At Around 15:00 PM UTC...
Morning everyone. It's been raining hard all night here. We're starting to have flooding problems. We'll see what today holds, I have to work outside :(
Morning all, What a day yesterday had a little of everything. Nado 6 miles south of me slight damage hail and 3.31 inches of rain. Oh yeah its raining hard again today.
IR glowing across the central part of Florida this morning. A day full of precip, later warming may bring the chance for stronger cells.

G'morning WU-Bloggers.
poured most of the evening last night. picked up slightly over 2 inches of rain here and with that large swath of rain in the gulf, looks like today will be a soaker.

i know that SE florida will probably be ripe for some severe weather today, but hows it looking for sw florida, mainly around the ft myers area?
427. IKE
The NWS in Tallahassee really botched my forecast, having us under a flash flood watch since Wednesday night.

Total precip received.....

Wed..... .22.
Thurs... .61.


NWS in Tallahassee finally woke up from their purple haze....

" Flood Watch / Flood Statement

Statement as of 5:34 AM CST on March 12, 2010

... Flood Watch is cancelled...

The Flood Watch for a portion of northwest Florida has been
cancelled. Rainfall amounts forecast for today are no longer
expected to be sufficient enough to cause additional flooding
concerns."........


DUH!
Ike- I think it's become a force of habit for your area.

They gave us 2-3 inches; we're at 0.56. Oh well...guess it's better than predicting half an inch, and ending up with three.
429. IKE
Quoting aquak9:
Ike- I think it's become a force of habit for your area.

They gave us 2-3 inches; we're at 0.56. Oh well...guess it's better than predicting half an inch, and ending up with three.


I'm not complaining at all. I'm happy. But their doing this for a living and botched it big-time.

I love my rain gauge. Write down my totals daily:)

Looks like they screwed up your totals too...so far.
Our winter is over. We had our first thunderstorm last night, most of the snow is gone, and the ice on the lake looks like is open around the edges. I saw my first pair of sandhill cranes yesterday and the mourning doves are cooing. Time to start gardening.
Hey Doc,

I suggested a Brazilian name for this storm a few days ago if it got to TS strength.

My suggestion: Iara (meaning - water lady)
Congress debates new satellite plan

By Matt Kelley, USA TODAY
WASHINGTON — The Obama administration plans to reorganize and more than double the annual budget for a troubled weather satellite program that is five years behind schedule and more than $7 billion over its original cost estimate.
But the administration first must convince a skeptical Congress that its plan will be enough to fix the project. Lawmakers need to approve a White House request to increase the program's yearly budget by more than $678 million to $1.1 billion in 2011.

Sen. Barbara Mikulski, D-Md., who chairs the subcommittee that oversees spending for the program, said at a recent hearing: "We wonder … will what we are doing make a difference?"


WEATHER SATELLITES: How they work

The program's four satellites are meant to preserve the nation's weather forecasting abilities by replacing a set of aging satellites that will wear out by the end of the decade. The project has been plagued by management squabbles, technical glitches and cost overruns for years. The satellites' costs soared from an estimate of $7 billion in 2002 to more than $14 billion, and the launch of the first satellite has been pushed back from 2009 to 2014.

Government watchdogs and an independent panel of experts concluded last year that the program's biggest problem was its unwieldy management structure — which was shared among the Air Force, NASA and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

The Air Force and the civilian agencies had different priorities, the expert panel concluded in a report released last June. The panel said the military was focused on controlling costs and providing weather forecasting data, while the civilian agencies sought to enhance the satellites' sensors to make climate-change measurements. Without management changes, the independent panel concluded, the program had "an extraordinarily low probability of success."

"The way the program was structured, it wasn't going to work," a member of the blue-ribbon panel, retired Navy rear admiral Thomas Betterton, said in a telephone interview.

The Obama administration's plans call for splitting management of the project, with the Air Force taking over two satellites and a joint NASA-NOAA team controlling development of two other satellites. Congress will decide on the request for more money during the months-long process of approving the annual spending bills, which has just begun. The Government Accountability Office, Congress' non-partisan investigative arm, is studying the reorganization plans and will issue a report in May, GAO official David Powner said in an e-mail.

Commerce Secretary Gary Locke, whose department includes NOAA, called the plans "a divorce with joint custody" at a Senate subcommittee hearing last week on his department's 2011 budget request.

Sen. Richard Shelby of Alabama, the top Republican on the panel that oversees Commerce's budget, was unimpressed. "These changes are only cosmetic," he said, calling the program "a disaster."

Mikulski said at the hearing she wants the project to succeed but is worried it might still fail or become so costly it will "eat NOAA alive."

Locke said he is "hopeful and confident that this is the right management structure." Scrapping the program entirely was not an option, Locke said.

"If we did nothing, some of our existing satellites will soon lose their operational capability and even fall from the sky, so we would have a gap in weather and climate data with no replacement in sight," Locke said.

Berrien Moore III, a member of the expert panel, said the president's proposed budget increase should provide enough funding to meet the program's needs. The panel had suggested the program needed an additional $1 billion or more to be successful.

Splitting oversight of the program also should end its problems with being management by committee, Moore said.

"I think that the new approach will let people focus on what their missions are," said Moore, the executive director of Climate Central, a non-profit clearinghouse for climate information.

Protracted heatwave and no rain continues at 11n 61w. Trinidad.
The Oil Refinery at Point-a-Pierre (a big one) is trucking water from other sources as their resevoirs are very low. There is talk of sending oil-tankers up the Orinoco to fill up and ship water to the refinery. This was done once before.
Water is becoming a very expensive commodity.
95F yesterday again.
Showers are forecast for Sunday night.
I will be very pleasantly surprised............
Unbelievable amounts of rain last night, almost 8 inches at my house, more on the way today.

4.56" in Longwood (just north of Orlando) since yesterday morning. Creeks and rivers are raging around here this morning and it's still raining hard.
Good Morning...
mikatnight, getting heavy rain today, I see!
The weather reports on the New York stations are reporting a major storm along the east coast today and tomorrow with rain amounts in excess of 10 inches with winds over 50 mph along the coast with up to 60 inches of snow in some interior areas, yet not much was mentioned on the WC or other stations. I have been looking at the maps and I don't see what they are talking about. Anyone have any data as to where they are getting their info. It was even on MSNBC.
Here is the link on the east cost storm. One correction; they said it would be 60 inches of snow if it were cold enough, but the rain amounts are correct.

Link
Quoting Grothar:
mikatnight, getting heavy rain today, I see!


Hi Grothar! Yeah, pouring right now - means no work for me today. Of course, there's still plenty of items on the honey-do list...

How's everyone been? Haven't been on the blog in forever. Just noticed the weather satellite story this morning. Don't know if there's already been discussion on it. Wouldn't be surprised if the Doc mentioned it today (hence my post).

"I was gone for all those days,
but I, was not all alone -
I made friends with a lot of people
in the danger zone."
Quoting pottery:
Protracted heatwave and no rain continues at 11n 61w. Trinidad.
The Oil Refinery at Point-a-Pierre (a big one) is trucking water from other sources as their resevoirs are very low. There is talk of sending oil-tankers up the Orinoco to fill up and ship water to the refinery. This was done once before.
Water is becoming a very expensive commodity.
95F yesterday again.
Showers are forecast for Sunday night.
I will be very pleasantly surprised............
If it's that hot there imagine what them guyanese are going through whoever got rice field I feel sorry for them it's probably dried up with no rain in sight and I even hear that the Veneuzalean gov't had to stop all shipment of rice because it contain weevil!
Quoting Grothar:
Here is the link on the east cost storm. One correction; they said it would be 60 inches of snow if it were cold enough, but the rain amounts are correct.

Link



Henry Marguisity from Accuweather has been talking about the flood potential in the N.E. for a few days now.
the character from west florida nailed this heavy rain event a few days ago e cen florida has got it
Hey jeff9641, I,m right with you on the rain 3.31 yesterday and so far today 1.21
Nasty MCS moving in from the gulf. It's going to be a wild ride for CENTRL & SFL this afternoon.

Quoting IKE:


I'm not complaining at all. I'm happy. But their doing this for a living and botched it big-time.

I love my rain gauge. Write down my totals daily:)

Looks like they screwed up your totals too...so far.


Quoting IKE:
The NWS in Tallahassee really botched my forecast, having us under a flash flood watch since Wednesday night.

Total precip received.....

Wed..... .22.
Thurs... .61.


NWS in Tallahassee finally woke up from their purple haze....

" Flood Watch / Flood Statement

Statement as of 5:34 AM CST on March 12, 2010

... Flood Watch is cancelled...

The Flood Watch for a portion of northwest Florida has been
cancelled. Rainfall amounts forecast for today are no longer
expected to be sufficient enough to cause additional flooding
concerns."........


DUH!


I live in Tallahassee...Had to back out through 2 feet of water yesterday and I know of 2 people that lost their cars on flooded roads. It was a mess yesterday morning.
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #4
TROPICAL CYCLONE ULUI (13F)
0:00 AM FST March 13 2010
======================================

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Ului (995 hPa) located at 14.4S 164.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots. Position POOR based on hourly GMS enhanced infrared radar imagery with animation. The cyclone is reported as west-northwest at 10 knots.

Gale Force Winds
================
120 NM from the center

Deep convection erupted over and overshadowed low level circulation center. System lies in a moderately sheared environment. Outflow good to east, north, and south; developing elsewhere. Sea surface temperature is around 30C. Cyclone steered west northwest by east to southeast deep layer mean flow.

Dvorak analysis based on 0.6 wrap on LOG10 spiral yielding DT 3.0

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24HRS

Global models agree on a west-northwest track with intensification.

Forecast and Intensity
========================
12 HRS: 13.8S 162.9E - 40 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS: 13.4S 161.5E - 45 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS: 13.1S 158.9E - 60 knots (CAT 2)

The Next Tropical Disturbance Advisory On TC ULUI Will Be Issued At Around 21:00 PM UTC...
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #8
TROPICAL CYCLONE TOMAS (14F)
0:00 AM FST March 13 2010
======================================

For Wallis and Futuna
======================
A GALE WARNING IS NOW IN FORCE FOR WALLIS AND FUTUNA.

For Fiji and Rotuma
====================
A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT IS IN FORCE FOR THE WHOLE FIJI GROUP.

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Tomas (985 hPa) located at 11.6S 177.6W has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots. Position POOR based on hourly GMS/GOES enhanced infrared radar imagery with animation. The cyclone is reported as moving southwest at 8 knots.

Storm Force Winds
=================
50 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
150 NM from the center

Organization steadily improving. Primary bands consolidation and wrapping tightly around low level circulation center. The system lies over a weakly sheared and diffluent environment. Outflow good to east and north, developing elsewhere. Sea surface temperature is 30C. System steered west southwest by northwest deep layer mean flow.

Dvorak analysis based on 0.9 wrap on LOG10 spiral yielding DT 3.5

Dvorak Intensity: T3.5/3.5/D1.0/24HRS

Global models agree on west southwest track and intensification.

Forecast and Intensity
========================
12 HRS: 12.4S 178.3W - 50 knots (CAT 2)
24 HRS: 13.2S 178.0W - 60 knots (CAT 2)
48 HRS: 15.1S 179.9W - 75 knots (CAT 3)

The Next Tropical Disturbance Advisory On TC TOMAS Will Be Issued At Around 20:30 PM UTC...
long time lurker, occassional poster stopping in to say hi and that I'm loving the rain today, but what are the chances of severe weather/tornado for Broward and South today?
oops nevermind, weather channel has a special weather statement that the potential exists, I answered my own question, back to lurkdom :)
Flooding Rains are coming ashore. Rain fall rates of .5 inch to 1 inch per hour and up.

Looks like we wont see a lot of severe weather today except maybe in the afternoon when day time heating will come into play.

But regardless this is turning into a serious rain event for central Florida.



Also the moisture feed from the pacific is coming to a end over the Mexico area.


Had some rain here earlier but I see we won't get much till around noon and later.
:) Thank you twice StormW

special weather statement on wc says storms coming in already contains some rotation, but on radar that line looks to be falling apart. Will be glad it just rains and nothing severe forms.
Quoting leelee75k:
:) Thank you twice StormW

special weather statement on wc says storms coming in already contains some rotation, but on radar that line looks to be falling apart. Will be glad it just rains and nothing severe forms.


Don't trust the weather Channel... They'll make a cloud seem dangerous.





The CAPE Values for Miami and South Florida are rather high.....this could get really bad this afternoon. REALLY BAD from Fort Myers South in my Opinion!

Quoting TampaSpin:





The CAPE Values for Miami and South Florida are rather high.....this could get really bad this afternoon. REALLY BAD from Fort Myers South in my Opinion!



hope not!
A tornado watch may be needed for south/central FL as a strong line of wx w/be coming ashore from TPA area southward already mini-bow echos forming winds 40-60mph likely!!
THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER
CAMP SPRINGS, MD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION


SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
400 AM EST FRI MAR 12 2010

VALID 12Z FRI MAR 12 2010 - 12Z SUN MAR 14 2010

A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER
ACROSS THE U.S. TO CONCLUDE THE WORK WEEK AND ENTERING THE
WEEKEND. A PAIR OF STRONG UPPER SYSTEMS WILL BE FEATURED ACROSS
THE WESTERN AND EASTERN U.S...RESPECTIVELY. IN BETWEEN THESE TWO
ACTIVE FEATURES WILL BE RELATIVELY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS AS A LARGE
UPPER RIDGE STAYS IN CONTROL ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S.

ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S...AN EXPANSIVE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY SITUATED
OVER THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL CONTINUE SWIRLING
COUNTERCLOCKWISE AS IT PROCEEDS TOWARD THE SOUTH AND EAST. AS THIS
OCCURS...A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL SPIN UP WITHIN THE LARGE
VORTEX WHICH WILL ALLOW THE DEVELOP OF SURFACE LOWS BRINGING
UNSETTLED WEATHER TO MUCH OF THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE U.S. IN
PARTICULAR...ONE AREA EXPECTED TO RECEIVE A BRUNT OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC WHERE WIDESPREAD FLOOD
WATCHES ARE ALREADY UNDER EFFECT. THE COMBINATION OF THE HEAVY
RAINFALL FORECAST COMBINED WITH SOME LOCATIONS EXPECTING
PRECIPITOUS SNOW MELT HAVE BROUGHT THIS POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING.
FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION ON THE THREAT FOR FLOODING...PLEASE
READ THE HPC EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FORECAST AT
WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/DISCUSSIONS/QPFERD.HTML. BESIDES THE
RAINFALL ASPECT OF THIS WEATHER SYSTEM...SCATTERED SNOW AND
FREEZING RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED ON THE BACKSIDE WHICH COVERS
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND UP INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. BY
FRIDAY NIGHT...THIS PARTICULAR THREAT SHOULD COME TO AN END AS THE
UPPER LOW MOVES OFF TO THE EAST TOWARD THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY.

THE OTHER MAJOR WEATHER SYSTEM IS A STRONG UPPER TROUGH WHICH WILL
DRIVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN AND EVENTUALLY INTO FOUR
CORNERS REGION. AS IS TYPICAL WITH THESE PACIFIC SYSTEMS...THE
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ALONG COASTAL LOCATIONS WHERE
THE BEST ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESIDE...AND THE LOCAL MOUNTAIN RANGES
WHERE TOPOGRAPHY WILL AUGMENT RAIN/SNOW AMOUNTS. AS THE SYSTEM
PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS THE ELEVATED TERRAIN...MUCH OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS SNOW AS THE UPPER LOW WILL PRODUCE THE
NECESSARY COOLING ALOFT. BACK ALONG THE WEST COAST...CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC WATERS.


RUBIN-OSTER
Sarasota is about to get hammered....A tornaodo warning i'm sure will be coming.



Quoting StormChaser81:


Don't trust the weather Channel... They'll make a cloud seem dangerous.

especially if that cloud could possibly be related to one of their weather movies.
severe thunderstorm warning sarasota county fl!!
College of DuPage Meteorology
Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings
Note: This page will reload every 2 minutes. Warnings are listed with the most recent first.
NEW!! Click on the station ID to bring up list of recent severe weather statements





050
WUUS52 KTBW 121502
SVRTBW
FLC081-115-121530-
/O.NEW.KTBW.SV.W.0018.100312T1502Z-100312T1530Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
1002 AM EST FRI MAR 12 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
WESTERN MANATEE COUNTY IN FLORIDA.
NORTHWESTERN SARASOTA COUNTY IN FLORIDA.

* UNTIL 1030 AM EST

* AT 952 AM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS
OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR SARASOTA...AND MOVING EAST
AT 40 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
SARASOTA.
DESOTO LAKES.
BAYSHORE GARDENS.

LAT...LON 2747 8268 2750 8248 2723 8231 2721 8252
2743 8265 2734 8256 2741 8258 2744 8264
2743 8266
TIME...MOT...LOC 1501Z 264DEG 35KT 2737 8245
Nothing appears on Radar in Sarasota so they will have big time straight line winds it appears....

Im about to be affected here on siesta key in sarasota...winds blowning from oppposite directions!!!NE to SW
Quoting stillwaiting:
Im about to be affected here on siesta key in sarasota...winds blowning from oppposite directions!!!NE to SW


Those are some great ingredients for you know what!!!!!
As the SuperCell near Sarasota comes ashore and hits the friction of the land.....Rotation could then start......we need to watch for this to happen.
heavy rains for about 15minutes picked up about .5 inches however the SW wind was brief winds now back from the NE,strangest thing is I haven't had any winds over 15mph in the last hr....severe t-storm warning for this storm more than likely no longer neccesary,IMO
Tallahassee area river flood monitoring shows minor flooding in a few places. Any more rain than you guys had, and it would have been worse...possibly to the extent of water on a lot of roads and/or in structures. But, that would have required a solid few more inches than y'all got.

But, this *is* the reason for the flood warnings.

Here: Link

Our soil is still fairly well saturated over here, in SE LA, even though we haven't had much rain in about a month. Will not dry out until it gets hot (well, it is SE LA, some places will never dry out)
Quoting stillwaiting:
heavy rains for about 15minutes picked up about .5 inches however the SW wind was brief winds now back from the NE,strangest thing is I haven't had any winds over 15mph in the last hr....severe t-storm warning for this storm more than likely no longer neccesary,IMO

Looks like the main part of the cell missed you to the south. You got the rain, but not the winds. (if you look at the radar, while the storm is moving east, the cell itself is propagating SE)
Quoting IKE:
The NWS in Tallahassee really botched my forecast, having us under a flash flood watch since Wednesday night.

Total precip received.....

Wed..... .22.
Thurs... .61.


NWS in Tallahassee finally woke up from their purple haze....

" Flood Watch / Flood Statement

Statement as of 5:34 AM CST on March 12, 2010

... Flood Watch is cancelled...



It depends where you live. Some areas got slammed - Franklin County was hammered with around 5 inches, to the west of town there were areas that got 3 inches, to the east, some only got 1/2 or less of an inch. Wakulla and Jefferson in some areas were also slammed. North of FL-20 the area got less water, but south of it, some people were just inundated.

In other words, just because you get a small amount of rain does not mean the area isn't getting hammered. Don't blame the weather guys for you not getting wet. Me.. I've got 3 inches. Can I send that your way instead?
Quoting atmoaggie:
Tallahassee area river flood monitoring shows minor flooding in a few places. Any more rain than you guys had, and it would have been worse...possibly to the extent of water on a lot of roads and/or in structures. But, that would have required a solid few more inches than y'all got.

But, this *is* the reason for the flood warnings.

Here: Link

I out soil is still fairly well saturated over here, in SE LA, even though we haven't had much rain in about a month. Will not dry out until it gets hot (well, it is SE LA, some places will never dry out)


LOL @ the last part.

The dry air regime setting up over the next week will help some, since dewpoints will stay fairly low, helping evaporation. Here in Houston, it is supposed to stay dry through the middle/end of next week. Soil moisture here isn't as high as it is in your area, but it is still above normal for this time of year.
in all likelyhood a severe t-storm watch will be posted for south central and south FL...
New Blog
484. IKE
Quoting Rotty3:


It depends where you live. Some areas got slammed - Franklin County was hammered with around 5 inches, to the west of town there were areas that got 3 inches, to the east, some only got 1/2 or less of an inch. Wakulla and Jefferson in some areas were also slammed. North of FL-20 the area got less water, but south of it, some people were just inundated.

In other words, just because you get a small amount of rain does not mean the area isn't getting hammered. Don't blame the weather guys for you not getting wet. Me.. I've got 3 inches. Can I send that your way instead?


I know this isn't an exact science, but they blew it for the inland panhandle area.

Yes...I'm well aware other parts of Florida got several inches.

Mobile,AL...got .49 from Wed. to today.
Pensacola... 1.81.
Milton...... 1.92.
Crestview... 1.08.

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