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Boris Hits Mexico; Atlantic's First Invest of 2014 Forms in Gulf of Mexico

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:56 PM GMT on June 04, 2014

Tropical Storm Boris made landfall near 2 am EDT Wednesday in Southeast Mexico as a tropical storm with 40 mph winds. The storm has weakened to a tropical depression and is expected to dissipate later today, but Boris remains an extremely dangerous rainfall threat to the region. Reports from the Mexican Weather Service indicate that the city of Tonala on the coast of Chiapas has recorded 12.5" (318 mm) of storm-total rainfall, and NHC is calling for rainfall totals of up to 20" from the storm. Tropical Storm Agatha hit this region at the end of May 2010 as a weak tropical storm with 45 mph winds, and dumped up to 22.27" of rain. The resulting catastrophic flash floods and landslides killed 190 and caused $1.1 billion in damage, mostly in Guatemala. Heavy rains from the precursors of Boris triggered a landslide in Guatemala over the weekend, killing five people.

Heavy rains from Boris are not the only weather hazard Mexico is dealing with. A brutal heat wave with the hottest temperatures ever recorded in June scorched the northern Mexican states of Sonora and Chihuahua on Tuesday. According to weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera, monthly records for hundreds of stations with almost a century of data were beaten on Tuesday, some by as much as 5°C (8°F). The capital of the Sonora state, Hermosillo, hit 121°F (49.5°C) on Tuesday, the hottest temperature ever recorded in the city. The previous June record was 45.5°C, and the previous all-time record was 48.5°C.


Figure 1. Latest satellite image of Invest 90L over the Gulf of Mexico, and the remnants of Boris over Southeast Mexico.

Atlantic's first "Invest" of 2014 forms in Gulf of Mexico
The National Hurricane Center's first area of interest in the Atlantic for 2014 was designated on Wednesday morning in the Southern Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche. Invest 90L is nearly stationary, but satellite loops show that 90L is kicking up some heavy thunderstorms along the Mexican coast. Wind shear as diagnosed by the 8 am EDT Wednesday run of the SHIPS model was high, 20 - 25 knots, and wind shear is expected to stay high over the Bay of Campeche through Saturday. By Sunday, wind shear is predicted to drop, and 90L may have a better chance to develop then. Boris' remnants will be working their way northwards and arrive in the Bay of Campeche over the weekend, and the extra spin and moisture from Boris have the potential to aid development of 90L. However, a band of high wind shear associated with strong upper-level winds from the subtropical jet stream is predicted to lie over the Central Gulf of Mexico, and these winds may interfere with development. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the Southern Gulf of Mexico are about 28°, which is about 0.5° above average. These warm waters do not extend to great depth, and the total heat energy available to intensify a potential storm is rather low. SSTs cool quickly as one goes to the north, are a marginal 26°C in the Central Gulf of Mexico. None of the reliable genesis forecast models predict that 90L will develop over the next five days. In their 8 am EDT Wednesday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 2-day odds of development of 10% and 5-day odds of 20%. I put these odds at 20% and 30%, respectively, given the propensity of the Bay of Campeche to spin up tropical cyclones in recent years.

What is an "Invest"?
When a National Hurricane Center forecaster sees a tropical disturbance that may be a threat to develop into a tropical depression, the forecaster may label the disturbance an "Invest" and give it a tracking identification number. There is no formal definition of what qualifies as an "Invest". Declaring an "Invest" is merely done so that a set of forecasting aids like computer model track forecasts can be generated for the disturbance. The "Invest" is given a number 90-99, followed by a single letter corresponding to the ocean basin--"L" for the Atlantic, or "E" for the Eastern Pacific. Other warning agencies assign "Invests" for the other ocean basins--"W" for the Western Pacific, "A" for the Arabian Sea, etc. Detailed microwave and traditional satellite images are available for all "Invests" across the globe at the Navy Research Lab web site.


Figure 2. On June 1, 2014, sea surface temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico were a very warm 28°C in the southernmost Bay of Campeche on June 1, 2014, but diminished quickly to 26°C in the Central Gulf. Image credit: NOAA/AOML.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting GatorWX:
90 looks to be doing pretty good this evening surprisingly. I must admit, it does have that classic, early gom ts look. I haven't been on all day, but there is a surface low down there, right? Maybe MX will get another double whammy like last season's Ingrid and Manuel. I do imagine it'd go into MX the earlier it develops, although I haven't looked at any maps yet aside from satellite. ATM, a lot of dry air intrusion from the north and west, shear to the north, negligibly warm water,climatology, etc. A lot stacked against, but tonight at 2am etd, it looks alright. Ha, I have to go to bed.


Yeah, I don't see anywhere anything down there could go but Mexico if it develops in the next few days.
Quoting 498. AtHomeInTX:



On satellite there's a very apparent naked swirl. Almost on the Mexico coast. Wonder if anything is trying to work down under that big storm blob to its NE. Or it's just getting sheared to death.

It's getting sheared

Quoting 499. GatorWX:

90 looks to be doing pretty good this evening surprisingly. I must admit, it does have that classic, early gom ts look. I haven't been on all day, but there is a surface low down there, right? Maybe MX will get another double whammy like last season's Ingrid and Manuel. I do imagine it'd go into MX the earlier it develops, although I haven't looked at any maps yet aside from satellite. ATM, a lot of dry air intrusion from the north and west, shear to the north, negligibly warm water,climatology, etc. A lot stacked against, but tonight at 2am etd, it looks alright. Ha, I have to go to bed.


New NCEP fronts on satellite dissipated the low at 03Z
90L looks worse than before
Before it had strong vort
Low shear
Convection over the center

Now has none of it
90L is not going to develop even NHC agrees with that
An area of low pressure centered over the southern Bay of Campeche
is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Strong
upper-level winds
will likely inhibit significant development of
this system
during the next couple of days before it moves inland
over eastern Mexico by this weekend. However, this disturbance has
the potential to produce extremely heavy rains and life-threatening
flash floods and mud slides over portions of southeastern Mexico
during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent
I think StormPetrol said earlier he thought he noticed a rotation east of Belize. I'm certainly not saying there's a closed low, but it does appear there a bit of spin there. It may also be a mid level feature. It's certainly not the dominant surface feature if it has any presence that low, but if 90 did decide to take some shortcuts,I suppose this "spin" east of Belize could have a better opportunity and perhaps become the fruition of the persistent GFS. As Dr Masters stated about wagon wheels and how there are multiple spokes of vorticies,all spinning around a central low. It is possible for one to break off, but it would likely be slow to evolve as it would have to lose its association with the main area of low pressure, which is very large. Might be interesting, all this mess in the southern gom. You know that feeling when there's finally something happening and you're a kid in a candy store. Good night all/AtHome.

lol, looked at some cimss maps, no vort at any height east of belize. K, def need to go to bed.
Quoting GatorWX:
I think StormPetrol said earlier he thought he noticed a rotation east of Belize. I'm certainly not saying there's a closed low, but it does appear there a bit of spin there. It may also be a mid level feature. It's certainly not the dominant surface feature if it has any presence that low, but if 90 did decide to take some shortcuts,I suppose this "spin" east of Belize could have a better opportunity and perhaps become the fruition of the persistent GFS. As Dr Masters stated about wagon wheels and how there are multiple spokes of vorticies,all spinning around a central low. It is possible for one to break off, but it would likely be slow to evolve as it would have to lose its association with the main area of low pressure, which is very large. Might be interesting, all this mess in the southern gom. You know that feeling when there's finally something happening and you're a kid in a candy store. Good night all/AtHome.



lol. Night Gator. I should call it a night as well. Good night all.
Still lurking...longest period I've seen in a long time without a post...during tropical season....with an invest...and TWs.
Come back WU friends!
It's raining here in Winchester VA.
90L still lurking in the extreme SW BOC, looks like a naked swirl on VIS, but more T-storms have flared up E and NE of the center this morning. Strong sheering winds limiting development. But, hey it is only June 5, and we are still watching something...
PAGASA has been closely monitoring the oceanic and atmospheric conditions in the tropical Pacific that could lead to possible development of an El Niño. A majority of climate models indicate that El Niño may develop this year. El Niño is characterized by unusually warm ocean surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific (CEEP).

The sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) over the tropical Pacific remained to be El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO)- neutral during the past several months. The established threshold of SSTA for an El Niño phenomenon is 0.5°C or higher during a three-month period.

PAGASA has already noted significant increase in the SSTA from 0.2 to 0.4°C from April 21 to April 28, 2014. Because of this development and as climate models predict that this condition may persist for the next nine months, PAGASA is foreseeing the onset of El Niño in June which may peak during the last quarter of 2014 and may last up to the first quarter of 2015.

El Niño could affect the normal rainfall pattern in the country generally resulting in reduced rainfall. Different parts of the country may experience varying rainfall impacts. PAGASA will be furnishing monthly rainfall outlook for six months for the different parts of the country.

The country could still experience normal number of tropical cyclone this year. However, El Niño causes the behavior of tropical cyclones to become erratic, affecting its tracks and intensity. The tropical cyclone tracks are expected to shift northward and its intensity could become stronger.

PAGASA will continue to closely monitor the tropical Pacific and updates/advisories shall be issued as appropriate. Concerned agencies are advised to take precautionary measures to mitigate the potential impacts of this phenomenon
The LLC in the S BOC moving SE-ESE
A few flare ups are found on the E side of the LLC
These flare ups are due to shear
Hmmm, something wicked this way comes:

Heard a town called Hugo was hit hard in Colorado.... Is it completely destroyed? Are people hurt/killed?
Low at 171 hours moving into S. Florida. with the track only affecting extreme S. Florida and the Keys. If the trend continue, the low might end up just going South of Fl. all together.


NHC has BOC low to dissipate by 72hrs
06Z GFS stronger on NW Carib low than 00Z GFS
still shows nothing with 90L
s. fl. course=could get pretty strong
Already the flare ups in the BOC low are dissipating
Quoting 516. islander101010:

s. fl. course=could get pretty strong


Maybe
Quoting 513. Sfloridacat5:

Low at 171 hours moving into S. Florida. with the track only extreme S. Florida and the Keys would be affected. If the trend continue, the low might end up just going South of Fl. all together.



I wonder would there be evacuations in the low lying sections of miami should the storm go thru the straights?
GFS has a storm brewing in the carribean tues-wens,which is probably the one coming by florida.....

Quoting 465. Slamguitar:



The Marines are a component of the Navy, at least in the States that's the case.

They are a department of the Navy. As my late uncle would say, "The Men's Department".
Navgem also has a Low in the carribean tuesday........................................... ...........
It appears those calling for Arthur to form, cross CFL and turn into GA may want to get their knife and fork ready, its crow time Scotty! Cant trust those long range models.

7 day
Quoting LargoFl:
I wonder would there be evacuations in the low lying sections of miami should the storm go thru the straights?


Not unless the system (if there is one) strengthens significantly beyond what the models are showing.
First Atlantic code orange of the year, 30% for 90L.

Quoting 524. StormWx:

It appears those calling for Arthur to form, cross CFL and turn into GA may want to get their knife and fork ready, its crow time Scotty! Cant trust those long range models.

7 day

If anyone is short on crow, I still have some left from last year. 
Quoting 524. StormWx:

It appears those calling for Arthur to form, cross CFL and turn into GA may want to get their knife and fork ready, its crow time Scotty! Cant trust those long range models.

7 day




One of the first rules of forecasting is, don't verify a forecast with another forecast.
Quoting 527. Dakster:


If anyone is short on crow, I still have some left from last year. 


I prefer Maryland Mosquitoes

SIX drumsticks

Quoting 529. georgevandenberghe:



I prefer Maryland Mosquitoes

SIX drumsticks

Yeah, but you got to be very hungry for those. Seeing as crow is smaller and has less meat on them then those skeeters. 
NHC bumps 90L up to 30% and medium
I do need to stress NHC just bumped it up due to the slight increase of convection over the LLC
If it can just manage to stay off shore there is a slight chance it might develop some more but that's it nothing else
AF Hunters would probably fly they may or may not find a circulation

Showers and thunderstorms have recently increased near a low
pressure area over the southern Bay of Campeche. Despite strong
upper-level winds, some further development of this system is
possible over the next day or two if the low remains offshore of
eastern Mexico. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is
scheduled to investigate this system this afternoon, if necessary.
This disturbance has the potential to produce extremely heavy rains
and life-threatening flash floods and mud slides over portions of
southeastern Mexico during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

I still say this thing with hit shore soon
Quoting 522. Dakster:



They are a department of the Navy. As my late uncle would say, "The Men's Department".

Yep
In the UK the Royal Marines is the Royal Navy's land forces
But in its self it has the Marine Commandos, Marine Reserves, Marine Band Corps, and the S.B.S. Or special boat service (basically British Navy SEALs)
Quoting 525. Sfloridacat5:



Not unless the system (if there is one) strengthens significantly beyond what the models are showing.

ok thanks..is it wind or possible storm surge that would threaten them the most?..seems like their shoreline is really low and homes built right there by the water.
Quoting 531. wunderkidcayman:

NHC bumps 90L up to 30% and medium
I do need to stress NHC just bumped it up due to the slight increase of convection over the LLC
If it can just manage to stay off shore there is a slight chance it might develop some more but that's it nothing else
AF Hunters would probably fly they may or may not find a circulation

Showers and thunderstorms have recently increased near a low
pressure area over the southern Bay of Campeche. Despite strong
upper-level winds, some further development of this system is
possible over the next day or two if the low remains offshore of
eastern Mexico. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is
scheduled to investigate this system this afternoon, if necessary.
This disturbance has the potential to produce extremely heavy rains
and life-threatening flash floods and mud slides over portions of
southeastern Mexico during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

I still say this thing with hit shore soon

AF Hunters may fly if the Convection don't dissipate by the time they ready to fly
90L...

According to radar data from Alvarado it suggest that the LLC may make landfall today if it does not change movement or relocate LLC
Quoting georgevandenberghe:



One of the first rules of forecasting is, don't verify a forecast with another forecast.


That's funny that you mention that.
Looking at the models at 7 or more days out to base any decision (for or against) is basically doing the same thing.



AL, 90, 2014060506, , BEST, 0, 192N, 946W, 30, 1004, LO
Quoting 512. Doppler22:

Heard a town called Hugo was hit hard in Colorado.... Is it completely destroyed? Are people hurt/killed?


Looks like it was hit pretty hard by a large tornado last night. Articles are starting to coming in now.


Not much to the little town. On one storm chase, we saw the most beautifully stepped supercell structure while watching it from the town.
Quoting LargoFl:
ok thanks..is it wind or possible storm surge that would threaten them the most?..seems like their shoreline is really low and homes built right there by the water.


The Keys are the area of greatest risk from a Tropical System passing through that area.

But the people (regular year round residents) in the Keys are hard core and they usually don't evacuate unless there's a major (Cat 3 or higher) hurricane heading their way.

But "if" and when there is a strong Tropical Storm passing through the Florida Straights there would be evacuations of flood prone areas in the Keys and S. Florida.

Good Morning. Just noting per the chart below that an upper level low/tutt cell is currently settled just to the West and NE of 90L that is contributing to the sheer, and cooler dry sinking air, that is preventing further organization in the entire Western quadrant of the system. The sheer continues to be daunting and the system is boxed in between Tutt and the Yucatan Peninsula with no where to go. While it is still trying to fire convection near the coc, it's not looking too promising to me at the moment.
Well I see the NHC broke out their fresh orange crayon this morning. I do hope the Hurricane Hunters fly in, but I'm not too sure they will...given the storm's less than par presentation...But all 90L has to do is keep some thunderstorms near it's center long enough for the HH to get their wheels up. lol

I still don't think 90L will form though. If it does, then TD strength is all I could see out of it...I'm still going with the GOH formation situation.

And what time are they supposed to fly?
543. MahFL
No mention now of 90L heading west.
544. MahFL
Quoting 542. JrWeathermanFL:
And what time are they supposed to fly?


That info is on the NHC website.

Quoting 543. MahFL:

No mention now of 90L heading west.
Any significant movement to to the West would probably result in sudden death..............................
12z Best Track.

AL, 90, 2014060512, , BEST, 0, 191N, 945W, 30, 1004, LO
New BEST track data for 90L seems to be inline with satellite and radar
Currently according to BEST track data 90L moving ESE-SE last position at 06Z was 19.2N 94.6W now 12Z 19.1N 94.1W
Currently looking at satellite it appears that it could be moving ESE-SE but it could be shear blowing the mid to upper level clouds E bound so that would make movement S
Currently looking at radar it's moving S-SSE and also as the timeframe goes by on radar the circulation seems to become more visible

New 12Z charts shows
Vort has increased slightly with 90L
Shear is still picking up over 90L
So this means no Florida hit from this system
Quoting 545. weathermanwannabe:


Any significant movement to to the West would probably result in sudden death..............................

That is west or South
Moderate risk added for today for damaging wind due to the very impressive MCS over KS and OK right now.

Here are the current stats on the Mexican coast to the West of the COC; the direction of the winds is consistent with a broad circulation near the surface (with winds coming in from the NW at that location) but you can "see" the South Westerly sheer blowing off cloud tops in the upper levels on the current satt loops.  Those streaming overhead clouds will become more evident on the visible loops later this morning as the sun continues to rise over the system.

Station SACV4
EPA & Mexican Government Cooperative
Program
Location:
19.174N 96.093W
Date: Thu, 5 Jun 2014 12:00:00 UTC
Winds: NNW (340) at 19.0 kt gusting to 20.0 kt
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.74 in and rising
Air Temperature: 80.2 F
Dew Point: 78.1 F  
By the looks at it should be making landfall later today

Quoting 552. wunderkidcayman:

By the looks at it should be making landfall later today



Maybe a few hrs after midday
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/90L/imag ery/vis-animated.gif

Here is the most recent vis loop for the am. You can see the upper level cloud deck flowing across from Mexico to the NE across the system from SW to NE.; it is being sheared at the upper levels.

You can also see what appears to be the LLC moving SW towards the coast in this loop; that vortex is located right around 19N-95W.
Sobering article on continuing climate warming despite announced cuts Link
556. MahFL
Quoting 553. wunderkidcayman:


Maybe a few hrs after midday


What is going to make landfall ?
Quoting 548. weatherman994:

So this means no Florida hit from this system
in june, systems in and around the BOC usually head either westward or northward...florida watches the carribean storms..........................
559. MahFL
Quoting 555. Guysgal:

Sobering article on c...


The year 2100... hardly any of us alive will be here.
Quoting 554. weathermanwannabe:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/90L/imag ery/vis-animated.gif

Here is the most recent vis loop for the am. You can see the upper level cloud deck flowing across from Mexico to the NE across the system from SW to NE.; it is being sheared at the upper levels.

You can also see what appears to be the LLC moving SW towards the coast in this loop.

I was seeing the same thing

Quoting 556. MahFL:



What is going to make landfall ?

The LLC of 90L

Lower shear over time in the BOC.

CPC released the June update of ENSO. Read it at my ENSO Blog
NOLA WFO site, New Orleans

Look off the Mouth of the Miss RIver.
564. MahFL
30 kts of shear in the BOC, so no TS formation.
New Earth wind data
Is in agreement of sfc spin location with Radar satellite sfc obs and vort maps
Quoting 564. MahFL:

30 kts of shear in the BOC, so no TS formation.

More like 30-40kts
40kts moving in from the Eastern BOC to the west
Quoting 530. Dakster:



Yeah, but you got to be very hungry for those. Seeing as crow is smaller and has less meat on them then those skeeters. 


I have three teenagers. :-)
Gonna get some work done and check in later. If you look closely at the latest vis-loop frames, convection was trying to fire near the COC within the last few hours, and the sheer rolled over it and blew off the convective cloud tops...............Sheer rules on this one at the moment.
Largo can you explain to me what's going with the system in terms of path

Nick Wiltgen @WxNick · 6 min

Salina, KS had continuous tropical-storm force sustained winds (39+ mph) from 7:03-7:53am CDT. #severe
Quoting 568. weathermanwannabe:

Gonna get some work done and check in later. If you look closely at the latest vis-loop frames, convection was trying to fire near the COC within the last few hours, and the sheer rolled over it and blew off the convective cloud tops...............Sheer rules on this one at the moment.

Yeah either way LLC should be meeting land later
572. JRRP
the best wave
Quoting 569. weatherman994:

Largo can you explain to me what's going with the system in terms of path
well right now they are waiting for the plane to go in and see what the storm is doing and taking their readings....we'll know more this afternoon..i dont expect much from the BOC storm..rain for mexico probably.
Good morning everyone!
GFS has it on the 12th but ECMWF has it on the 15th we got time to watch this a lot will change from now to then!
Now I see 90L was bumped to code orange. It might develop after all. If other ts like Patty in 2012 could do it this one can too.


Good Mornin America How Are Ya...
Quoting 572. JRRP:

the best wave


So far yeah maybe let see what it look like when it comes off the coast

Quoting 573. LargoFl:

well right now they are waiting for the plane to go in and see what the storm is doing and taking their readings....we'll know more this afternoon..i dont expect much from the BOC storm..rain for mexico probably.

Don't expect much if anything at all

Quoting 574. SFLWeatherman:

Good morning everyone!
GFS has it on the 12th but ECMWF has it on the 15th we got time to watch this a lot will change from now to then!


Quite reasonable
Largo so no Florida hit
the el nino monthly discussion is out....if you thought that they would declare el nino at this update....well....you were wrong

they do state that there is a 70 percent chance that el nino will be declared this summer....and an 80 percent chance of it being declared in the fall
Quoting 578. weatherman994:

Largo so no Florida hit
not from the BOC storm no.....watching the carribean for development next week,but things change fast,stay alert as always huh
Quoting 548. weatherman994:

So this means no Florida hit from this system


No model really had 90L moving much. One of the few models that had a system consistently moving towards Florida or the southeast was the GFS, but that system was to come from the western Caribbean.

Quoting 575. allancalderini:

Now I see 90L was bumped to code orange. It might develop after all. If other ts like Patty in 2012 could do it this one can too.

Umm no not gonna happen
If it does then it got really really lucky and would be nothing more than a Invest borderline TD nothing more than 30mph
Quoting 574. SFLWeatherman:

Good morning everyone!
GFS has it on the 12th but ECMWF has it on the 15th we got time to watch this a lot will change from now to then!

yes next week might get a bit interesting huh, and shear in the gulf might relax they say....
Quoting 581. LargoFl:

not from the BOC storm no.....watching the carribean for development next week
Quoting 582. Grothar:



No model really had 90L moving much. One of the few models that had a system consistently moving towards Florida or the southeast was the GFS, but that system was to come from the western Caribbean.



What ever energy is left over from 90L will move over to the W Caribbean and develop there so yes it does come from 90L in a way
90L has gotten the first orange crayon of the season. However, upper level winds continue to shear the system. It has a slight window of development if it can stay over water long enought also you can't ever underestimate the boc effect on weak systems. But the high should shoves into Mexico within the next 48 hours or so.
I guess no one see's anything like a hurricane in the gulf anytime soon huh..at best a tropical storm..dont see any models with anything under 1000mb in their future cast runs today.
588. JRRP
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

So far yeah maybe let see what it look like when it comes off the coast


Don't expect much if anything at all


Quite reasonable

GFS 54h

84h

Quoting 584. LargoFl:

yes next week might get a bit interesting huh, and shear in the gulf might relax they say....

The W Caribbean shear currently starting to relax eventually with that W Carib system the lower shear will carry over to the GOM with the system
591. JRRP
Regardless, the forecasters remain just as confident that El Niño is likely to emerge. If El Niño forms, the forecasters and most dynamical models, such as NCEP CFSv2, slightly favor a moderate-strength event during the Northern Hemisphere fall or winter (3-month values of the Niño-3.4 index between 1.0oC and 1.4oC). However, significant uncertainty accompanies this prediction, which remains inclusive of a weaker or stronger event due to the spread of the models and their skill at these lead times.
Link
Grothar oooooooo I get it now 90L is not gonna be the storm 2 come for Florida so it gonna be a system from the western carribean 2 affect us next week
Quoting 586. Ricki13th:

90L has gotten the first orange crayon of the season. However, upper level winds continue to shear the system. It has a slight window of development if it can stay over water long enought also you can't ever underestimate the boc effect on weak systems. But the high should shoves into Mexico within the next 48 hours or so.

Development window for this is just ever so slight
Maybe in less that 48hrs


Quoting 588. JRRP:


GFS 54h

84h



Hmm quite decent
I had said last night that 90L was not going to be what ends up developing, but another system
You can see it on the ECMWF too!

Quoting 593. wunderkidcayman:


Development window for this is just ever so slight
Maybe in less that 48hrs



Hmm quite decent
596. JRRP
72h


700hpa relative vorticity
Largo is the carribean we have to watch for next week
Regardless, the forecasters remain just as confident that El Niño is likely to emerge. If El Niño forms, the forecasters and most dynamical models, such as NCEP CFSv2, slightly favor a moderate-strength event during the Northern Hemisphere fall or winter (3-month values of the Niño-3.4 index between 1.0oC and 1.4oC). However, significant uncertainty accompanies this prediction, which remains inclusive of a weaker or stronger event due to the spread of the models and their skill at these lead times.

the closer we leave the "spring barrier" that makes the models unreliable the closer they resemble their results from last winter
Sent the Boyz a e-mail saying their default header is er, "wrong"

: P


Plan of the Day


000
NOUS42 KNHC 041515
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1115 AM EDT WED 04 JUNE 2014

SUBJECT: WINTER STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (WSPOD)

VALID 05/1100Z TO 06/1100Z JUNE 2014
WSPOD NUMBER.....14-004

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (BAY OF CAMPECHE)
FLIGHT ONE -TEAL 71-
A. 05/1900Z
B. AFXXX 01AAA INVEST
C. 05/1600Z
D. 19.0N 94.0W
E. 05/1830Z TO 05/2300Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: POSSIBLE FIX MISSION
NEAR 19.0N 94.5W AT 06/1800Z IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

$$
JWP




Quoting 592. weatherman994:

Grothar oooooooo I get it now 90L is not gonna be the storm 2 come for Florida so it gonna be a system from the western carribean 2 affect us next week

Ok it's not directly 90L but when 90L makes landfall and weakens then energy that is left from 90L will move into the W Caribbean and develop there
both "strong" and "super' el nino events look less and less likely...

Quoting 592. weatherman994:

Grothar oooooooo I get it now 90L is not gonna be the storm 2 come for Florida so it gonna be a system from the western carribean 2 affect us next week


Maybe. It is still too early to tell. But from what I see, no model calls for anything strong.

The current wind shear is still very high in the Caribbean as you can see. The shear tendency, at this time, only drops it slightly



Quoting 594. Hurricanes101:

I had said last night that 90L was not going to be what ends up developing, but another system

Same energy same moisture but new system

Quoting 596. JRRP:

72h


700hpa relative vorticity


Nice strong
Beautiful tropical wave for this time of year

72HR GFS
90L/INV/XX/XX
Quoting 608. SFLWeatherman:

Beautiful tropical wave for this time of year

THAT IT IS
611. JRRP
.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 607. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:



12Z vort at 850mb shows the strongest vmax is just on shore
kind of funny how the media just a few months ago latched on to anyone who would state that there was a possibility of a SUPER el nino......their caveat that it was too early to tell for sure was usually relegated to the bottom portion of the article.....now...as we finally come closer to a point of certainty...the big boys and organizations can finally step up to the plate and respond.....

U.S. Private Weather Agencies Predict Weak El Niño in 2014


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Jun 04, 2014
The U.S.-based Commodity Weather Group (CWG) and the U.S-based AccuWeather Inc have predicted a weak El Niño pattern in 2014 due to the weakening of the warm pool of water below the surface of the Pacific Ocean leading to significant weakening of trade winds, reports Bloomberg.

CWG predicted a 65% probability for a weak El Niño pattern and a 35% probability for a moderate El Niño pattern; and AccuWeather predicted a 80% chance of a weak El Niño pattern. AccuWeather expects El Niño to set in during July 2014 and last for next six to eight months. The predictions bring some hope of economic damage being lower than expected.
- See more at: http://oryza.com/news/rice-news/uk-us-private-weat her-agencies-predict-weak-el-ni%C3%B1o-2014#sthash .S887h8Ia.dpuf
Quoting 615. wunderkidcayman:


12Z vort at 850mb shows the strongest vmax is just on shore


All reliable models move 90L to the west and south. Good thing there won't be any energy left in the area.



Also look at the strong high above 90L and the wind moving everything from east to west completely moving 90L all the way west.

Quoting 618. Grothar:



All reliable models move 90L to the west and south. Good thing there won't be any energy left in the area.



Also look at the strong high above 90L and the wind moving everything from east to west completely moving 90L all the way west.



Even though the GFS sniffed out the storm early on, it appears the Euro won the battle for storm track.

90L has been managing very well the past 12 hours and is slowly organizing, with deep convection blowing up near the center (with a little help from the diurnal maximum), though only to get sheared off to the east. The system will have an uphill battle to contend with though. High wind shear is still present and time will begin to become an issue in the near future as it appears it may make landfall in Mexico before it can develop into a tropical cyclone. The likelihood of development is on the increase, I'd say the odds are at about 40% now, but the system will only have about 72 hours to work with, and 90L could move ashore anytime. With these very unpredictable variables we may see a quick tropical cyclone development, or we may not. It's pretty much a toss up and dependent on what recon finds this afternoon.
I think we may see an increase in likelihood of development at the next TWO, though it wouldn't be a surprise me, given the unpredictable variables of land interaction and shear, that they keep it at 30%.
* 40% chance of development over the next 48 hours
* 40% chance of development over the next five days
As most of us know by now, the Bay of Campeche is notorious for spinning these systems up quickly even when they're within 100 miles from the coast.
Quoting 524. StormWx:

It appears those calling for Arthur to form, cross CFL and turn into GA may want to get their knife and fork ready, its crow time Scotty! Cant trust those long range models.

7 day



The WPC isn't god of rainfall forecasting either, in fact they are wrong about precip forecast more often than not. For example, I highly doubt the entire eastern 2/3 of the U/S will be getting 1-2 inches of rain over the next 7 days.

Now, this isn't about poking at the HPC rainfall forecast, but the point is that forecasting is still poorly skilled, so please don't be obnoxious to other bloggers its childish.