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Borderline El Nino conditions arrive; Chicago, Detroit, and Milwaukee hit 102°

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:13 PM GMT on July 05, 2012

The odds of an El Niño event developing in time for the August - September - October peak of hurricane season have grown to 61%, said NOAA's Climate Prediction Center in their latest El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) diagnostic discussion, released on July 5. Ocean temperatures in the equatorial Pacific have increased to 0.6°C above average this week, which is just above the 0.5°C above-average threshold used to define a weak El Niño event. These temperatures must remain 0.5° or more above average for three consecutive months to qualify as an official El Niño. CPC advised that current conditions show a weakening of the east-to-west trade winds over the east-central equatorial Pacific, along with a reduction in heavy thunderstorm activity over Papua New Guinea, which "reflect a likely progression towards El Niño." However, the upper atmospheric winds and circulation patterns don't resemble what we expect of an El Niño yet. For example, in June over the North Pacific Ocean, there was an overall ridge of high pressure (more characteristic of La Niña) rather than a trough of low pressure (more typical during an El Niño). Thus, any development of El Niño during July is likely to be slow. El Niño events tend to suppress Atlantic hurricane activity by increasing the upper-level winds that create high wind shear capable of tearing storms apart.


Figure 1. Departure of sea surface temperature (SST) from average for July 5, 2012. In the equatorial Pacific, waters had warmed to 0.6°C above average, denoting the possible onset of an El Niño event. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS.

Chicago, Detroit, Milwaukee, and Madison all hit 102° on July 4
The summer of 2012 continued its onslaught of record extreme heat on Wednesday, with the Midwest the focus of the most intense heat. Chicago hit 102°, just 3° below the city's all-time hottest temperature of 105°, set on July 24, 1934. Chicago hits 102° or more an average of once every 7.4 years, and last hit that mark on July 24, 2005. Detroit's high of 102° yesterday was its hottest day since 1988. Detroit's all-time hottest temperature is also 105°, set on July 24, 1934. Milwaukee, WI also hit 102° yesterday, which tied for the 4th hottest temperature in city history. Madison's 102° was their hottest day since 1988, and tied for the 6th warmest temperature ever measured in the city. Madison's all-time high is 107°, set July 14, 1936, and the forecast for today calls for a high of 104°. Other notable extremes from the 4th of July:

St. Louis hit 105°, the seventh consecutive day the city has hit triple digits. This streak is now the 4th longest such streak in city history; the only longer streaks occurred during the Dust Bowl summer of 1936 (streaks of 13 and 9 days) and the Dust Bowl summer of 1934 (an 8-day streak.) The current forecast for St. Louis calls for highs of 102 - 106° Thursday, Friday, and Saturday, which will likely bring the city's streak of 100°+ days to ten by week's end. St. Louis' all-time hottest temperature is 115°, set in 1954.

The high temperature in Pueblo Colorado reached 101 degrees on July 4th, bringing the number of consecutive days with high temperatures of 100 degrees or higher to a record thirteen. The previous record was 9 consecutive days, set in 1990. Record keeping began in 1888.

The low temperature in La Crosse, WI dropped to just 81° Wednesday. This tied July 21 1901 and July 13 1995 for the warmest low ever recorded. Temperature records date back to 1872.

Minneapolis, MN hit 101°, which is 7° below their all-time record high of 108° set 7/14/1936.

Highs of 100°+ are predicted to occur again on Thursday and Friday in Chicago, Detroit, Milwaukee, and Madison. A cold front will bring welcome relief on Saturday to the region, and the region of highest extreme heat will shift southeastwards to the Tennessee Valley. The models have backed off on their prediction of a strong ridge of high pressure bringing extreme heat to the Western U.S. next week, and more typical hot weather can be expected over most of the U.S. next week. Nevertheless, the extreme Midwest heat is causing havoc to the nation's corn crop, and multi-billion dollar drought disaster is taking shape. Today's New York Times details the drought concerns. I did a live interview Tuesday for Democracy Now discussing the recent extreme weather and how we can expect to see more weather like this in the future due to climate change.

Quiet in the Atlantic
There are no threat areas to discuss in the Atlantic, and none of the reliable computer models are developing a tropical cyclone over the next seven days.

Jeff Masters
Bombs Bursting
Bombs Bursting
Wyoming Smoke
Wyoming Smoke
07/04/2012 Picture taken from Milliken Co. The smoke from the fire burning in Wyoming has filled the sky, & the sun still shows little relief of cooler temperatures in Co.
Patriotic Sunset
Patriotic Sunset
Beautiful red, white and blue sunset tonight. Happy 4th of July everyone!!!
Burned Corn
Burned Corn
From the wind and static electricity. This was no till corn

Heat Climate Summaries

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Hello boys and girls.

Quoting TomTaylor:
No those lines are called isotherms and are showing temperature by outlining areas of certain measurements of temperature.


Thanks tom!
Probably a borderline TS/hurricane now...

Quoting Grothar:
Hello boys and girls.



Hello...I'm Mister Ed!
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Probably a borderline TS/hurricane now...


Yeah, I'd say 70 mph.
Incredible rains over Poland - in the city Jelenia Góra rainfall total from past 7 hours is 9.9 inches(according to official data).

http://www.met.sjsu.edu/weather/models/gfsone-12/ sfc5f48.gif
Quoting TAMPASHIELD:


Hello...I'm Mister Ed!


Of Course Of Course....................


Hi Grothar
EP042012 - Tropical Storm DANIEL


Storm Relative 1km Geostationary Visible Imagery

How bout that area near Hispanola that appears to be blossoming like a 4th of July Firework?
What say you sentinels ....
Quoting Patrap:
EP042012 - Tropical Storm DANIEL


Storm Relative 1km Geostationary Visible Imagery



what are those holes patrap?... are they new bursts of convection because i don't think ive seen it like that before!
Edit: Never mind. Just remembered that half the blog is 15 or less and too young for that post. LOL. Apologies...
517. redux
pretty powerful storms moving into north of baltimore.

http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?zo ommode=zoom&num=6&delay=15&rbscale=0.2097826086956 5218&scale=0.500&noclutter=0&ID=LWX&type=N0R&lat=3 9.30749893&lon=-76.63775635&label=Baltimore,%20MD& showstorms=10&map.x=411.5&map.y=240.5¢erx=263& centery=323&lightning=0&smooth=0&showlabels=1&rain snow=0
Quoting Dragod66:


what are those holes patrap?... are they new bursts of convection because i don't think ive seen it like that before!


omg nvm... opticall illusion lollololol!!
Quoting Grothar:
What's wrong with the NHC. You would at least think they would post an ITISAB or something!!!




I suspect we'll see a yellow circle at 8pmest, shear kinda high but on the decreasing trend all day. SW caribbean looking a bit interesting but will probably move into the EPAC or it might split.
Rainbow Top Image

Daniel is looking pretty good this evening.
Quoting MississippiWx:
Daniel is looking pretty good this evening.


yes very much so... good convection on all sides! very close to hurricane imo
Quoting MississippiWx:
Daniel is looking pretty good this evening.


Agreed.
Quoting stormpetrol:
I think the HC needs to get there yellow crayon out.
Today interesting storms happened in a Germany. Look f.e. to this foto in German weatherblog not very far away from my place near Frankfurt (we've got a lot of sometimes dangerous storms in the last weeks).

I, by chance, caught this photo of the developing cell in Mainz this evening:



Another maybe interesting thing:

Smaller Volcanoes Could Cool Climate
ScienceDaily (July 5, 2012) %u2014 A U of S-led international research team has discovered that aerosols from relatively small volcanic eruptions can be boosted into the high atmosphere by weather systems such as monsoons, where they can affect global temperatures. The research appears in the July 6 issue of the journal Science.
More

Stay well, greetings; I've got to go to bed because tomorrow we'll have an early meeting in the office.
Daniel is probable a 70mph storm.
Quoting BahaHurican:
Wouldn't that be westward, PP?


Good catch Baha, Thank You!

My other east, lol.
hey guys just checking in really nice wave and disturbance in the SW Carib I think we should get two yellow circles in the caribbean

hey stormpetrol what up this heat has been killing me all day can't wait for this wave to come
Quoting gulfbreeze:
I think the HC needs to get there yellow crayon out.
gone.to.walgreens
Quoting gulfbreeze:
I think the HC needs to get there yellow crayon out.


Think they will soon, 8pm maybe no but, 2am. Persistence is the key. This vort max just started consolidating early this afternoon and is centered overland ATM. As others have indicated, shear is decreasing. Pretty big change from just this morning with respect to the upper levels.

here.it.is...ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING INTO CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG
22N70W TO 15N75W MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE WAVE LIES ON THE WRN SIDE OF A LARGE
SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE COVERING THE ERN CARIBBEAN AND
AREAS TO THE N IN THE ATLC. SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS
LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS AROUND THE WAVE AXIS. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 19N-25N BETWEEN
61W-68W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS FROM 17N-24N BETWEEN
68W-74W...INCLUDING MUCH OF HISPANIOLA...AND FROM 16N-19N
BETWEEN 74W-79W...INCLUDING JAMAICA.
Quoting ProgressivePulse:


Think they will soon, 8pm maybe no but, 2am. Persistence is the key. This vort max just started consolidating early this afternoon and is centered overland ATM. As others have indicated, shear is decreasing. Pretty big change from just this morning with respect to the upper levels.



The convection could be more to do with land interaction, but we shall see what occurs.
If anyone is interested, tornadodude of Stormscapelive will be a guest on the Barometer Bob show this evening. Broadcast beings at 8pm EDT, Link. Mouse hover over "Broadcasts" then click "the Barometer Bob show"
and is not 8pm

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT THU JUL 5 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT THU JUL 5 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM DANIEL...LOCATED ABOUT 615 MILES SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN
TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.

AN ELONGATED AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL AMERICA WESTWARD OVER THE FAR EASTERN NORTH
PACIFIC OCEAN. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
And once again , some of us here in Middle TN get our buts kicked in by severe thunderstorms. More large branches downed..
Quoting ElConando:


The convection could be more to do with land interaction, but we shall see what occurs.


I would agree but the convection has been ongoing through the diurnal cycles and is now starting to fire up again.

Surely has that "I wanna be a cyclone" look to it however the big question is can it?

Quoting hydrus:
And once again , some of us here in Middle TN get our buts kicked in by severe thunderstorms. More large branches downed..


I want to call you lucky cause I've had storms the last couple of days here in Nashville miss me barely and not really put a dent in the drought or the heat.
Quoting Astrometeor:


I want to call you lucky cause I've had storms the last couple of days here in Nashville miss me barely and not really put a dent in the drought or the heat.
we did not receive enough rain for all the crap we just went through.
Quoting ProgressivePulse:


I would agree but the convection has been ongoing through the diurnal cycles and is now starting to fire up again.

Surely has that "I wanna be a cyclone" look to it however the big question is can it?

how much chance do you think it has?
Can someone post how shear looks in the Atlantic today please.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Probably a borderline TS/hurricane now...

Is that an eye or an optical illusion?
The county just south of us is about to get slammed something awful. Many reports of wind damage here.
Quoting allancalderini:
Can someone post how shear looks in the Atlantic today please.


Haven't seen one of these in a while.

WOUS64 KWNS 052352
WOU3

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 473
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
555 PM MDT THU JUL 5 2012

TORNADO WATCH 473 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1200 AM MDT FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

MTC011-060600-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0473.120705T2355Z-120706T0600Z/

MT
. MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

CARTER


SDC007-019-033-047-055-063-071-081-093-103-105-113 -137-060600-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0473.120705T2355Z-120706T0600Z/

SD
. SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BENNETT BUTTE CUSTER
FALL RIVER HAAKON HARDING
JACKSON LAWRENCE MEADE
PENNINGTON PERKINS SHANNON
ZIEBACH


WYC011-060600-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0473.120705T2355Z-120706T0600Z/

WY
. WYOMING COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

CROOK


ATTN...WFO...BYZ...UNR...
Quoting allancalderini:
how much chance do you think it has?


Not much unless it consolidates a center further North which is possible. The area east of TCI looks interesting to me @ 22N 69W


SEL3

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 473
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
555 PM MDT THU JUL 5 2012

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

FAR SOUTHEAST MONTANA
WESTERN AND WEST CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA
FAR NORTHEAST WYOMING

EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON FROM 555 PM UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 85 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES NORTH OF BUFFALO
SOUTH DAKOTA TO 75 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF PHILIP SOUTH DAKOTA.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 470...WW 471...WW 472...

DISCUSSION...TSTMS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE STRENGTHENING AND INCREASING
IN EXTENT THROUGH LATE TNGT OVER WRN SD REGION...IN ZONE OF
SUSTAINED/MOISTENING LOW LVL SELY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH UPR IMPULSE
CROSSING THE NRN RCKYS. PER DISCUSSION IN EARLIER SVR TSTM WATCH
#472...INCREASING UPR LVL DIVERGENCE AND STRENGTHENING LOW TO MID
LVL SHEAR RELATED TO UPR IMPULSE WILL YIELD AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE
FOR LOW LVL MESOCYCLONES AND POSSIBLY TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY WITH
ANY MORE DISCRETE STORMS.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 75 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 21025.


...CORFIDI
Quoting NCHurricane2009:


What do you think is currently stopping the Atlantic season?
The biggest single factor at the moment is probably the large scale sinking air over the Atlantic due to the downward phase of the MJO. Some have noticed that some models are forecasting for it to come back into our region of the world. However, what is really happening is the MJO is stalling out over the Indian basin, where it prefers to be. It may try and weakly return to our basin in mid-July, but that forecast is pretty uncertain right now.




The other part of the deal is climatology and the fact that SSTs in our basin are not very far from average. Since our SSTs are not exceptionally warm compared to average, we can't expect activity to be much higher than average. Climatalogical conditions as a whole for this time of year aren't too conducive for development and neither are current conditions. Therefore, we can't expect much at the time.


Briefly looking at the year ahead, this year has a developing El Nino working against it, lackluster SST anomalies in our basin, and a large pool of cool water in the South Atlantic. El Nino tends to raise vertical wind shear. Meanwhile, the lackluster SST anomalies in our area as well as the area of cool water in the South Atlantic appears to be limiting convection within the ITCZ over the MDR and South America. As a result precipitation anomalies have showed up quite strongly. The lack of strength of the ITCZ over this area is a concern for waves coming off Africa because it shows convection has not been healthy in the region which would present a problem for waves trying to develop in the MDR.

Precipitation Anomalies for the last 30 days




Total Precipitable Water Anomalies for June




Aside from these issues precipitation anomalies over the Sahel are mostly positive, the ITCZ/monsoon trough has also been observed further north than normal in response to a cooler Gulf of Guinea which is a good thing for wave development over Africa. Model forecasts seem to reinforce the idea of above average precipitation over Africa. However, they are in strong agreement that at least a moderate El Nino will develop and SST anomalies in our basin will stay around average to maybe only slightly above average. The result is less rain and higher sea level pressure anomalies over the Atlantic, both of which favor less activity.
Quoting ProgressivePulse:


I would agree but the convection has been ongoing through the diurnal cycles and is now starting to fire up again.

Surely has that "I wanna be a cyclone" look to it however the big question is can it?



i dont see it wrapping up.
especially with its land heavy track, offset, decoupled rotation and convection, and no model support
Statisticals arent bringing it back:

GFS still holding on to the U-turn
Quoting gulfbreeze:
I think the HC needs to get there yellow crayon out.



Theres a guy on here thats got a red crayon. He could color it in for us. Alll that rumling and tumling earlier and I have had not ONE drop of rain
Quoting Civicane49:


thanks wind shear doesn`t look bad.
Quoting Patrap:


OMG that rain missed me by a hair of a milimeter
6hours late but... Derived from the 5July6pmGMT (NHC) ATCF data for TropicalStormDaniel:
Daniel's 5July6amGMT StormStatus was re-evaluated&altered
from TropicalDepression to TropicalStorm
Daniel's 5July12pmGMT MaxSusWinds was re-evaluated&altered
from 35knots(40mph)65km/h to 40knots(46mph)74km/h

Its vector had changed from 11.7mph(18.8km/h) WNWest to 13.5mph(21.7km/h) West
MaxSusWinds had increased from 40knots(46mph)74km/h to 50knots(58mph)93km/h
And minimum pressure had decreased from 1002millibars WNWest to 997millibars

For those who like to visually track TS.Daniel's path... HI25 is Naalehu
SAN is SanDiego :: The unlabeled unconnected dot is IslaSocorro :: CSL is CaboSanLucas

ESEasternmost dot on the kinked line is where Invest96E became TropicalDepressionFourEast
WNWesternmost dot on the kinked line is where TD.4E became TS.Daniel
The Easternmost dot on the longest line-segment is TS.Daniel's most recent position

The longest line-segment is the straightline projection through TS.Daniel's 2 most recent positions to its closest approach to Hawaii
At 5July6pmGMT, TS.Daniel was heading toward passage 602miles(968kilometres) South of
Lua o Palahemo in ~8days18hours from now

Copy&paste hpv, hi25, san, 18.694n110.97w, csl, zlo, 12.1n105.3w- 12.7n106.3w- 13.2n107.3w- 13.6n108.1w- 13.8n109.0w, 13.8n109.0w-14.1n110.0w, 14.1n110.0w-14.1n111.2w, 14.1n110.0w-10.288n154.143w, 18.911n155.681w-10.288n154.143w into the GreatCircleMapper for more information
The previous mapping for comparison
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
Statisticals arent bringing it back:

GFS still holding on to the U-turn
Yeah GFS still wants to bring it into our basin and strongly. The other dynamic models, the UKMET and ECMWF, stall the MJO out over the Indian and then more or less bring it into center circle which would mean no significant MJO signal for any region of the world. The ECMWF and UKMET solution is much more likely than the GFS solution.

Quoting ncstorm:



Hope everybody stays safe
all that moisture in the caribbean i hope cayman gets some relief from the heat....
That graph in nr 562 says that "there will be no active mjo anywhere." Does that also mean that there is no "descending mjo" anywhere in the world? Or does it just say where the "active mjo" will be?

Not using the right terms here, but i think you know what i mean.
Quoting missionRN14:
How bout that area near Hispanola that appears to be blossoming like a 4th of July Firework?
What say you sentinels ....


Still a little early, but given the steering and environment this might be a real concern by the time it gets on a close approach through the bahamas.

There is a potential weakness it might get a chance to hit in the next day and half or so, but if it misses I think it goes strait west after that.

Upper level and water vapor is about the same as this morning:

Weak ULL out in front.
Weak anticyclone aloft.
Wet air everywhere ahead of it.
Only dry pocket is behind it.

Low and mid level winds currently favor wnw track continued.

It looks like the Florida Straights is going to be the target for this one, but if it does feel the weakness it may be the norther bahamas...
Quoting RTSplayer:


Still a little early, but given the steering and environment this might be a real concern by the time it gets on a close approach through the bahamas.

There is a potential weakness it might get a chance to hit in the next day and half or so, but if it misses I think it goes strait west after that.

Upper level and water vapor is about the same as this morning:

Weak ULL out in front.
Weak anticyclone aloft.
Wet air everywhere ahead of it.
Only dry pocket is behind it.

Low and mid level winds currently favor wnw track continued.

going.to.go.right.over.s.florida?
evening all been away for a week did i miss anything?
Quoting islander101010:
going.to.go.right.over.s.florida?


0000z steering:



At the moment since it's still not even an invest, I assume it's headed for the Gulf one way or another if it misses that weakness.



Weakness is much bigger in the next pressure range.




But ridge is stronger in the strong TS to weak cat 2 range...



NHC still doesn't even call it an invest though.

So maybe just wasting my time or something.

Sure looks organized from satellite and radar, at least compared to a "nothing". I think it needs invest tag...
JMA Model--a lot of moisture heading to florida



Quoting floridaT:
evening all been away for a week did i miss anything?
Not much.except for Wu sold out to TWC....
Quoting floridaT:
evening all been away for a week did i miss anything?


Look at post 572, but otherwise pretty quiet here.

BTW your post has made my day!
Quoting washingtonian115:
Not much.except for Wu sold out to TWC....
NOOOOOOOOOO
Quoting floridaT:
evening all been away for a week did i miss anything?


nope.
Daniel is slowly chugging along, nothing to miss yet

Quoting RTSplayer:



I think it needs invest tag...


yellow circles first.


wonder if all the fireworks had anything to do with the amount of popup t-storms today.

fireworks->smoke->rain

i guess july 4th is a terrible CO2 day..
tell me its not so
Quoting islander101010:
going.to.go.right.over.s.florida?
do you understand the use of periods?
Quoting floridaT:
NOOOOOOOOOO


sold, not sold out, and they are staying very separate.
the doom and gloom on this blog was incredible..
go back and read THIS and some of the comments
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


nope.
Daniel is slowly chugging along, nothing to miss yet



yellow circles first.


wonder if all the fireworks had anything to do with the amount of popup t-storms today.

fireworks->smoke->rain

i guess july 4th is a terrible CO2 day..



Yeah.

Strangely, it simply is not initializing in the computer models.

They don't even start it as strong as it already is.

Euro and GFS seem totally ignore it as if it doesn't exist at all, and even the Canadian does nothing with it.

I hope something hasn't glitched or got bad data...
Quoting floridaT:
tell me its not so
Oh yeah it's so.Click on the achieves and go back three blogs and your going to see it.
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


sold, not sold out, and they are staying very separate.
so DR Masters is still going to write his blog and he wont be required to make it WC vanilla?
Quoting floridaT:
tell me its not so


Only if it is April 1st. Otherwise sorry buddy.
Quoting 19N81W:
all that moisture in the caribbean i hope cayman gets some relief from the heat....
It should head your way between tomorrow and Saturday...
Quoting Methurricanes:
do you understand the use of periods?


give him a break, his space bar is broken
Quoting floridaT:
so DR Masters is still going to write his blog and he wont be required to make it WC vanilla?


correct.
read the link i posted and youll see what he said.
he answered some questions in the comments too, it will take a while to go through them though
Will the GOM streak of 4 years continue this year....


I don't care if the models aren't picking up on the wave in the caribbean.I mean c'mon now warm sst,shear should decrease and it's in a moist atmosphere.Maybe land interaction or the amount of speed stops it from developing...Now as for the GFS showing a strong up pulse for the Atlantic I wouldn't discount it out yet.Remember when every thought the GFS was high for sending Debby to Florida?.Well let's see what happens in this situation.
Quoting RTSplayer:



It looks like the Florida Straights is going to be the target for this one, but if it does feel the weakness it may be the norther bahamas...
I figure we'll get at least some wx from it tomorrow and tomorrow night... dunno if it'll make it as far north as Freeport, though; a lot depends on the permutations of the ridge...
Quoting washingtonian115:
I don't care if the models aren't picking up on the wave in the caribbean.I mean c'mon now warm sst,shear should decrease and it's in a moist atmosphere.Maybe land interaction or the amount of speed stops it from developing...Now as for the GFS showing a strong up pulse for the Atlantic I wouldn't discount it out yet.Remember when every thought the GFS was high for sending Debby to Florida?.Well let's see what happens in this situation.


GFS isnt developing this wave.

nite all.
Um....

We have a sort of retrograde severe weather outbreak about to happen in Alabama and Mississippi.

I don't know if I've quite seen anything like this in several years.

It looks like, well, the big tornado outbreak in reverse...
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


correct.
read the link i posted and youll see what he said.
he answered some questions in the comments too, it will take a while to go through them though
read it dont believe it sad sad day
Quoting RTSplayer:
Um....

We have a sort of retrograde severe weather outbreak about to happen in Alabama and Mississippi.

I don't know if I've quite seen anything like this in several years.

It looks like, well, the big tornado outbreak in reverse...


just some severe t-storms, should die in a few hours of nighttime
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


GFS isnt developing this wave.

nite all.
I didn't say it was.I was talking about how strong it was showing the MJO.
Quoting washingtonian115:
I don't care if the models aren't picking up on the wave in the caribbean.I mean c'mon now warm sst,shear should decrease and it's in a moist atmosphere.Maybe land interaction or the amount of speed stops it from developing...Now as for the GFS showing a strong up pulse for the Atlantic I wouldn't discount it out yet.Remember when every thought the GFS was high for sending Debby to Florida?.Well let's see what happens in this situation.
The models do pick up on the wave. The truth is it's a pretty weak wave at the low levels. The vorticity signature is not very strong nor is it stacked with the little mid level rotation. The only reason it looks so impressive is because of the excellent upper divergence being provided by the upper level anticyclone to the north of Puerto Rico. Upper divergence provides outflow aloft, allowing convection to grow and intensify.

And, by the way, the MJO forecast situation is very different from Debby's track situation.
Quoting TomTaylor:
The models do pick up on the wave. The truth is it's a pretty weak wave at the low levels. The vorticity signature is not very strong nor is it stacked with the little mid level rotation. The only reason it looks so impressive is because of the excellent upper divergence being provided by the upper level anticyclone to the north of Puerto Rico. Upper divergence provides outflow aloft, allowing convection to grow and intensify.
Quoting washingtonian115:
I didn't say it was.I was talking about how strong it was showing the MJO.
I'm chuckling at all the people calling for a yellow circle on the Twave... this morning it HAD a 0% yellow circle.... and pple complained.... lol
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


just some severe t-storms, should die in a few hours of nighttime


I hope you're right, because the cape is pretty high in that area.

This is a bit different than what has happened the past two or three nights though.
I hate the new NWS map!

http://www.weather.gov/


Link Click "loop" for loop
Click over your area for closer view :-)

We're all scared about what TWC will do to WU to dilute the info. I fear for Doc Masters; however, I think he might have been a little pressured by the less issue-oriented members of his team to go for the deal. Anyway, it's done. We'll see if they screw up WU-ground like they destroyed the weather channel.
Quoting washingtonian115:
I didn't say it was.I was talking about how strong it was showing the MJO.
I know you didn't say the GFS developed the wave. What you said was
Quoting washingtonian115:
I don't care if the models aren't picking up on the wave in the caribbean.I mean c'mon now warm sst,shear should decrease and it's in a moist atmosphere.

which makes it sound like you think its going to develop despite what the models say.
Quoting BahaHurican:
I'm chuckling at all the people calling for a yellow circle on the Twave... this morning it HAD a 0% yellow circle.... and pple complained.... lol
I'm glad it doesn't have a yellow circle. It doesn't deserve one.
Quoting TomTaylor:
I know you didn't say the GFS developed the wave. What you said was

which makes it sound like you think its going to develop despite what the models say.
Yes.Looking at the over all atmosphere I think the wave has a decent attempt at developing and ever becoming something in its life time.Almost meets(the atmosphere) the criteria you need for a T.C to develop.
Quoting TomTaylor:
I'm glad it doesn't have a yellow circle. It doesn't deserve one.
id say like this morn a yellow but near zero chance. ya have to admit any wave in the summer has a near zero chance
Gauhati Raging floodwaters fed by monsoon rains have inundated more than 2,000 villages in northeast India, killing at least 27 people and leaving hundreds of thousands more marooned Friday. The Indian air force was delivering food packages to people huddled on patches of dry land along with cattle and wild elephants. Rescuers were being dropped by helicopter into affected areas to help the stranded. About one million people have been forced to evacuate as the floods from the swollen Brahmaputra River - one of Asia's largest - swamped 2,084 villages across most of Assam state, officials said. Officials have counted 27 people dead so far, but the toll is expected to be much higher as unconfirmed casualty reports mount. Telephone lines were knocked out and some train services were cancelled after their tracks were swamped by mud. As the floods soaked the Kaziranga game reserve east of Assam's capital of Gauhati, motorists reported seeing a one-horned rhino fleeing along a busy highway. "We never thought the situation would turn this grim when the monsoon-fed rivers swelled a week ago," said Nilomoni Sen Deka, an Assam government minister. Residents of Majuli - an 800-square-kilometre island in the middle of the Brahmaputra River - watched helplessly as the swirling, grey waters swallowed 50 villages and swept away their homes. "We are left with only the clothes we are wearing," said 60-year-old Puniram Hazarika, one of about 75,000 island residents now camping in makeshift shelters of bamboo sticks and plastic tarps on top of a mud embankment. A herd of 70 endangered Asiatic elephants, which usually avoid humans, were grouped together nearby, Majuli island wildlife official Atul Das said. "The jumbos have not caused any harm, but we are keeping a close watch," he said.
Quoting 19N81W:
all that moisture in the caribbean i hope cayman gets some relief from the heat....


I agree with that!
Quoting Chicklit:


Link Click "loop" for loop
Click over your area for closer view :-)

We're all scared about what TWC will do to WU to dilute the info. I fear for Doc Masters; however, I think he might have been a little pressured by the less issue-oriented members of his team to go for the deal. Anyway, it's done. We'll see if they screw up WU-ground like they destroyed the weather channel.
well if it is screwed up we can create weather underground underground
I don't think the wave deserves a yellow circle now.Maybe in the next 24-48 hours.
Quoting floridaT:
id say like this morn a yellow but near zero chance. ya have to admit any wave in the summer has a near zero chance
Well yeah they could circle it with a zero percent chance. Sounds like a waste of time to me though and it looks like the NHC would agree.
I got a perfect view of an awesome thunderhead to my east over Wilmington, OH. I'll upload the pictures soon.
EP, 04, 2012070600, , BEST, 0, 143N, 1126W, 55, 995, TS
Quoting floridaT:
well if it is screwed up we can create weather underground underground


It's not that easy; a lot of brains and sweat and years of work went into creating this site.
Anyway, we'll just see what happens.
Yesterday I though it was pretty pointless for the NHC to highlight the wave.Maybe it was to give people on the island a heads up.Now in 24-48 that's when a yellow circle is needed if the wave avoids land interaction.
We could see development down the road north of Cuba, around the Turks & Cacios
Quoting Chicklit:


It's not that easy; a lot of brains and sweat and years of work went into creating this site.
Anyway, we'll just see what happens.
mabee we will see cantori drinking Fresca on a beach somewhere


'No tropical development predicted for the next seven days.' Anyway, goodnight all.
Am sure we all have plenty of our own real problems to worry about without second-guessing WU-ground's decisions.
Where did everyone go?
Quoting floridaT:
mabee we will see cantori drinking Fresca on a beach somewhere




.."I gotta tell ya folks,
thats a distinct possibility",

...Back to Grothar in the Studio
Quoting Chicklit:


"No tropical development predicted for the next seven days." Anyway, goodnight all.
Am sure we all have plenty of our own real problems to worry about without second-guessing WU-ground's decision.
Doesn't mean tropical development can't happen :).
After Debby, you would think people would have learned about models and discounting them...
Quoting washingtonian115:
Doesn't mean tropical development can't happen :).


I would just leave it alone trying to convince people....time speaks for itself..it always does..
Quoting washingtonian115:
Yes.Looking at the over all atmosphere I think the wave has a decent attempt at developing and ever becoming something in its life time.Almost meets(the atmosphere) the criteria you need for a T.C to develop.
Might want to look again because the wave is very poorly organized at the moment and has no signs of a strong or well defined low level circulation. There's a reason no models show any signs of development.
I think if convection persist and become more organize they we will need a yellow circle.
Quoting ncstorm:
After Debby, you would think people would have learned about models and discounting them...
Yes that's right.Right now I'm throwing the models in the trash with this tropical wave right here.
Quoting washingtonian115:
Yes.Looking at the over all atmosphere I think the wave has a decent attempt at developing and ever becoming something in its life time.Almost meets(the atmosphere) the criteria you need for a T.C to develop.
I'm not discounting the GFS solution out just yet for the MJO upward pulse.

Tom Taylor this why I said give it another 24-48 to see what materializes.Things could change or stay the same.The wave is one big disorganized mess right now.
The blog is screwed up again for me for the second time today so I shall say good night to all...except whoever keeps screwing up the blog ..... See you all in the morning :)
Quoting hydrus:
we did not receive enough rain for all the crap we just went through.


Strange, I usually associate severe thunderstorms with also higher rainfall amounts. Every time I've had a severe thunderstorm I always see at least 2 to 3 inches of rain out of it.
Even if the wave doesn't develop it's still interesting to track/discuss.And certainly better than watching paint dry...
RitaEvac, would you mind taking down the video you posted at #604?

TIA
Nice looking blob north of Puerto Rico could give Florida some rain this weekend.
Quoting Hurricanes305:
Nice looking blob north of Puerto Rico could give Florida some rain this weekend.
fastest moving wave ive seen in a long time
...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 22N36W TO 12N33W MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. THE
WAVE LIES ON THE WRN SIDE OF A SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. THE
WAVE ALSO LIES ON THE LEADING EDGE OF A LARGE AREA OF SAHARAN
DUST THAT EXTENDS EWD TO THE AFRICAN COAST. THE DRY DUST E OF
THE WAVE IS LIMITING CONVECTION NEAR THE WAVE. CURRENTLY NO DEEP
CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE AXIS.

ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING INTO CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG
22N70W TO 15N75W MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE WAVE LIES ON THE WRN SIDE OF A LARGE
SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE COVERING THE ERN CARIBBEAN AND
AREAS TO THE N IN THE ATLC. SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS
LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS AROUND THE WAVE AXIS. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 19N-25N BETWEEN
61W-68W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS FROM 17N-24N BETWEEN
68W-74W...INCLUDING MUCH OF HISPANIOLA...AND FROM 16N-19N
BETWEEN 74W-79W...INCLUDING JAMAICA.

Also

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
DRY AIR ALOFT OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC IS PROVIDING MOSTLY FAIR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WRN BAHAMAS. A TROPICAL WAVE
MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IS DRAWING MOISTURE ACROSS
THE ERN BAHAMAS WITH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS S OF 25N BETWEEN 73W.
SEE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. THE WAVE ALSO LIES
UNDERNEATH THE DIFFLUENT SIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERING
THE NW CARIBBEAN AND THE BAHAMAS...WHICH IS HELPING ENHANCE THE
LARGE AREA OF ACTIVITY.

So basically this TUTT is lying across the projected path of the Twave, which IMO adds another layer to the NOT in "tropical development not expected in the next 48 hours...
Speed seems to be another factor along with the already non stacked low level center....
EP042012 - Tropical Storm DANIEL

Storm Relative 1km Geostationary Visible Imagery





Floater Rainbow

641. beell
Quoting BahaHurican:
...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 22N36W TO 12N33W MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. THE
WAVE LIES ON THE WRN SIDE OF A SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. THE
WAVE ALSO LIES ON THE LEADING EDGE OF A LARGE AREA OF SAHARAN
DUST THAT EXTENDS EWD TO THE AFRICAN COAST. THE DRY DUST E OF
THE WAVE IS LIMITING CONVECTION NEAR THE WAVE. CURRENTLY NO DEEP
CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE AXIS.

ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING INTO CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG
22N70W TO 15N75W MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE WAVE LIES ON THE WRN SIDE OF A LARGE
SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE COVERING THE ERN CARIBBEAN AND
AREAS TO THE N IN THE ATLC. SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS
LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS AROUND THE WAVE AXIS. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 19N-25N BETWEEN
61W-68W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS FROM 17N-24N BETWEEN
68W-74W...INCLUDING MUCH OF HISPANIOLA...AND FROM 16N-19N
BETWEEN 74W-79W...INCLUDING JAMAICA.



And from the same TWD and the 2PM edition.

8PM TWD
...EXPECT THE WAVE TO CONTINUE TO PUSH WWD DRAWING MOISTURE INTO THE CENTRAL
AND WRN CARIBBEAN...

2PM TWD
...TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE W ACROSS CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH TONIGHT MOVING ACROSS W CARIBBEAN FRI AND SAT THEN OVER CENTRAL AMERICA SUN. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE WILL REACH THE E CARIBBEAN LATE MON...
So the wave north of Hispaniola was given a yellow circle when it was just an average group of showers, and now that it has had sustained convection all day and cyclonic "appearance" it doesn't even get 0% ?
Daniel Long Floater - RBTOP Color Imagery Loop

..click image for Loop





Daniel is traveling tonight on a plane
I can see the red tail lights heading for Spain

Oh and I can see Daniel waving goodbye

God it looks like Daniel, must be the clouds in my eyes
Oh God it looks like Daniel, must be the clouds in my eyes..

Here, in Wilmington, we are already preparing for the " zero percent" chance wave.

Id really like to know what Roker and the gardening guy think about it. It may even be featured on " Tropical Wave Stories" tomorrow at 8 pm......on......THE WEATHER CHANNEL
Quoting EricSFL:
So the wave north of Hispaniola was given a yellow circle when it was just an average group of showers, and now that it has had sustained convection all day and cyclonic "appearance" it doesn't even get 0% ?
TUTT is in the way.But shear is expected to be favorable once it enters the Bahamas region...
Quoting Patrap:
Daniel Long Floater - RBTOP Color Imagery Loop

..click image for Loop





Daniel is traveling tonight on a plane
I can see the red tail lights heading for Spain

Oh and I can see Daniel waving goodbye

God it looks like Daniel, must be the clouds in my eyes
Oh God it looks like Daniel, must be the clouds in my eyes..



When are you gonna come down?
When are you going to land?
I shouldnt have sold the Weather Underground
Should have listened to my old man
Quoting washingtonian115:
Speed seems to be another factor along with the already non stacked low level center....
That speed's why it's unstacked... lol

These fast movers almost never come to anything... it's one reason why this part of July sees a TS formation less frequently than the 4 weeks before or after...
There's a Weather Channel?
647. wilmingtonistoast

..Touche'

Itsa kinda spiraling and all,,

Is my CAMERA 3 or 2 cuz that light looks chartreuse to me.

EP042012 - Tropical Storm DANIEL


AMSU Microwave 89GHz Imagery (4 km Mercator)

LOL @ 650.
Quoting wilmingtonistoast:
Here, in Wilmington, we are already preparing for the " zero percent" chance wave.

Id really like to know what Roker and the gardening guy think about it. It may even be featured on " Tropical Wave Stories" tomorrow at 8 pm......on......THE WEATHER CHANNEL


Dont know where u r but i am near the airport and i guess the rain has bbeen circcling around me ALL day. Not a drop
Quoting BahaHurican:
That speed's why it's unstacked... lol

These fast movers almost never come to anything... it's one reason why this part of July sees a TS formation less frequently than the 4 weeks before or after...
Now what if it slows down?.
Quoting K8eCane:


Dont know where u r but i am near the airport and i guess the rain has bbeen circcling around me ALL day. Not a drop

Wilmington party! I was at Wrightsville Beach today and it poured. It was a pretty cold rain too.
Quoting CothranRoss:

Wilmington party! I was at Wrightsville Beach today and it poured. It was a pretty cold rain too.


im a stones throw from the airport. i could see the rain on the radar and it rummmbled and thunnderrred but nary a drop
Quoting K8eCane:


im a stones throw from the airport. i could see the rain on the radar and it rummmbled and thunnderrred but nary a drop


missed me within a hair of a milimeter lol...hope it didnt mess up your beach day
Quoting EricSFL:
So the wave north of Hispaniola was given a yellow circle when it was just an average group of showers, and now that it has had sustained convection all day and cyclonic "appearance" it doesn't even get 0% ?
Basically, yes. I guess until they saw what the day's setup would be they still were watching it. Now it looks like too many cards stacked against it....

An eye trying to pop out in that last image?



Lower Level Convergence:

The awesome thunderhead I saw today.

Quoting K8eCane:


Dont know where u r but i am near the airport and i guess the rain has bbeen circcling around me ALL day. Not a drop


I'm only in Wilmington for Cat 3 Ernesto, next Tues./Wednesday.

"Its a little bit funny
This feeling inside
I know Ernesto will be named
Early tomorrow night"
Quoting Patrap:
There's a Weather Channel?
Who'da thunkit???

Quoting K8eCane:


missed me within a hair of a milimeter lol...hope it didnt mess up your beach day


you may not believe this but its true. once my friend needed rain soooo bad for her garden and we saw it coming and i SWEAR it stopped at the stop sign right before her house
is that in S FL??
Quoting Ameister12:
The awesome thunderhead I saw today.

Quoting wilmingtonistoast:


I'm only in Wilmington for Cat 3 Ernesto, next Tues./Wednesday.

"Its a little bit funny
This feeling inside
I know Ernesto will be named
Early tomorrow night"



There aint even an ernesto on the horizon...besides we had one of those a few years ago
Quoting wilmingtonistoast:


I'm only in Wilmington for Cat 3 Ernesto, next Tues./Wednesday.

"Its a little bit funny
This feeling inside
I know Ernesto will be named
Early tomorrow night"
i know its not much but a catagory 1 i hope it dont blow i hope it dont blow
Still believe this area will produce a storm in 2 weeks time.

Quoting washingtonian115:
Now what if it slows down?.
A lot depends on what happens with the ridge over us right now. If that stays all the way over into the GOM, it's more likely the Twave heads west over Central America. If it retrogrades towards the ATL, it has more of a chance of slowing to round the edge of the high.

Looks like the NHC etc. expect the former rather than the latter.
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
is that in S FL??

No. Near Cincinnati, Ohio.
Quoting sunlinepr:
There looks like a serious realignment going on with this storm.

Windshear might rip it apart before it gets to Hawaii, unless it can become a potent storm. What's the intensity forecast out ahead?

Quoting K8eCane:


missed me within a hair of a milimeter lol...hope it didnt mess up your beach day

It was still good! It was before that larger one later in the afternoon and it wasn't that strong of a storm.
Quoting floridaT:
fastest moving wave ive seen in a long time
Strong high over the Atlantic is creating a fast push west in this area. There's a very deep 1033 Azores high, and it's only getting higher.
.
You know that it would be untrue
You know that I would be a liar
If I was to say to you ,
we couldn't get much higher
light my fire

Quoting GTcooliebai:
There looks like a serious realignment going on with this storm.

Windshear might rip it apart before it gets to Hawaii, unless it can become a potent storm. What's the intensity forecast out ahead?



Good for Hawaii...



Oh, man.... I am yawning like crazy... and gotta get up early enough tomorrow to beat the traffic... so I'm out... [like a light :o)]

G'nite, all.

I'll check on our likely Twave in the morning and try to get photos if any interesting wx eventuates tomorrow...

...that's no moon...

Quoting GTcooliebai:
There looks like a serious realignment going on with this storm.

Windshear might rip it apart before it gets to Hawaii, unless it can become a potent storm. What's the intensity forecast out ahead?




Daniel or it's left over's get very close to Hawaii, look at strong storm Emilia, and maybe Fabio forming behind it... looks like the CV season but in the Epac

EMILIA COULD THREATEN HAWAII
crazy Epac!!!!
Quoting CosmicEvents:
Strong high over the Atlantic is creating a fast push west in this area. There's a very deep 1033 Azores high, and it's only getting higher.
.
You know that it would be untrue
You know that I would be a liar
If I was to say to you ,
we couldn't get much higher
light my fire



"The time to hesitate is through
Lets give the wave an orange circle
And then turn on The Weather Channel
And follow it with Steve Erkel"

Come on baby we got a depression
Come on babe we got a depression
Send us back into recession
Sendus back into RE CESS ION!!!!!!

Quoting wilmingtonistoast:


"The time to hesitate is through
Lets give the wave an orange circle
And then turn on The Weather Channel
And follow it with Steve Erkel"

Come on baby we got a depression
Come on babe we got a depression
Send us back into recession
Sendus back into RE CESS ION!!!!!!

and the weather girls go DO DO DO DO DO DO DO DO DO DO DO DO DO DO DO DO DO TA DOOOOOOOO
MODERATE RI FOR DANIEL. greater than 1 in a 3 chance

Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 37% is 3.1 times the sample mean(11.7%)
The blob has really suffered in the past several hours, but it is still holding together. We'll see what happens by morning.


Glad the severe weather hasn't been as bad as it could have been. A lot of the cells merged or ran into one another, instead of the isolated cells from earlier, so it should be mostly straight line winds.

I was really concerned something "stupid" might happen, but maybe lately I'm just too flinchy or something.
689. VR46L
Quoting NavarreMark:
Its a good thing we have high pressure over the FL Panhandle. I've heard through the grapevine that they've extended the red snapper season til the 16th. Haven't been able to confirm that officially yet, but if so, its a good thing cause we then have a 16 day window when red snapper and gag grouper are legal to catch at the same time.

Heading back out in the gulf tomorrow afternoon to take advantage of it. Be back late on Saturday.

PEACE OUT!!!


STAY SAFE!!!!!! BE SAFE!!!!

and catch your limit
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
crazy Epac!!!!

It's the NOGAPS, what do you expect?
Quoting RTSplayer:
The blob has really suffered in the past several hours, but it is still holding together. We'll see what happens by morning.


Glad the severe weather hasn't been as bad as it could have been. A lot of the cells merged or ran into one another, instead of the isolated cells from earlier, so it should be mostly straight line winds.

I was really concerned something "stupid" might happen, but maybe lately I'm just too flinchy or something.
GOOD NEWS is the cells in the se are over an exstream drought area
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

It's the NOGAPS, what do you expect?


I know that


BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DANIEL ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042012
800 PM PDT THU JUL 05 2012

...DANIEL GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.4N 113.1W
ABOUT 625 MI...1005 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.38 INCHES
65mph.
TROPICAL STORM DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042012
800 PM PDT THU JUL 05 2012

A WINDSAT OVERPASS FROM 0116 UTC AND GLOBAL MODEL DATA INDICATE THAT
DANIEL IS TILTED A BIT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH WITH HEIGHT. DESPITE THE
TILT...DANIEL HAS STRENGTHENED...AND THE INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 55
KT BASED ON CONSENSUS DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB...SAB...AND THE
UW-CIMSS ADT.

THE ESTIMATED MOTION IS THE SAME AS BEFORE...280/11 KT. A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA IS
FORECAST TO BUILD WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...KEEPING DANIEL
ON A WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. THERE IS
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST SINCE THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN
GREATER-THAN-NORMAL AGREEMENT.

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO. SINCE THE RI INDEX
SHOWS A 3 IN 10 CHANCE OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE
INTENSITY GUIDANCE IN THE SHORT TERM. AFTER 36 HOURS...THE
VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW...BUT DANIEL WILL BE
MOVING OVER WATERS COLDER THAN 26C AND THROUGH A MORE STABLE AIR
MASS. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS INDICATED IN THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST
FROM DAY 2 AND BEYOND.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/0300Z 14.4N 113.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 06/1200Z 14.6N 114.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 07/0000Z 14.9N 116.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 07/1200Z 15.1N 119.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 08/0000Z 15.4N 121.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 09/0000Z 16.0N 126.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 10/0000Z 16.5N 132.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 11/0000Z 17.0N 138.0W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BERG
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/0300Z 14.4N 113.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 06/1200Z 14.6N 114.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 07/0000Z 14.9N 116.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 07/1200Z 15.1N 119.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 08/0000Z 15.4N 121.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 09/0000Z 16.0N 126.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 10/0000Z 16.5N 132.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 11/0000Z 17.0N 138.0W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BERG
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:



Daniel or it's left over's get very close to Hawaii, look at strong storm Emilia, and maybe Fabio forming behind it... looks like the CV season but in the Epac

EMILIA COULD THREATEN HAWAII


Do you mean this....

Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:



Daniel or it's left over's get very close to Hawaii, look at strong storm Emilia, and maybe Fabio forming behind it... looks like the CV season but in the Epac

EMILIA COULD THREATEN HAWAII


Here is hoping you are wrong!!!!
Lots of parts of the US getting rain at the moment with the exception of the mid-west which needs it the most.

Link
Quoting sunlinepr:


Do you mean this....



WAIT AND SEE!!
Derived from the 6July12amGMT (NHC) ATCF data for TropicalStormDaniel:
14.1n110.0w - 14.1n111.2w has been re-evaluated&altered*
14.0n110.0w - 14.1n111.2w - 14.3n112.6w are now the most recent positions

Its vector had changed from 13.5mph(21.7km/h) West to 15.8mph(25.5km/h) West
MaxSusWinds had increased from 50knots(58mph)93km/h to 55knots(63mph)102km/h
And minimum pressure had decreased from 997millibars WNWest to 995millibars

For those who like to visually track TS.Daniel's path...
HI25 is Naalehu :: SAN is SanDiego :: CSL is CaboSanLucas :: ZLO is Manzanillo

ESEasternmost dot on the kinked line is where Invest96E became TropicalDepressionFourEast
WNWesternmost dot on the kinked line is where TD.4E became TS.Daniel
The Easternmost dot on the longest line-segment is TS.Daniel's most recent position

The longest line-segment is the straightline projection through TS.Daniel's 2 most recent positions to its closest approach to Hawaii
At 5July6pmGMT, TS.Daniel was heading toward passage 374miles(602kilometres) South of Hawaii
At 6July12amGMT, TS.Daniel was heading toward passage 196miles(316kilometres) South of
Lua o Palahemo in ~7days10hours from now

Copy&paste hpv, hi25, 18.911n155.681w-13.507n155.061w, 18.911n155.681w-16.0613n155.495w, san, csl, zlo, 12.1n105.3w- 12.7n106.3w- 13.2n107.3w- 13.6n108.1w- 13.8n109.0w, 13.8n109.0w-14.0n110.0w, 14.0n110.0w-14.1n111.2w, 14.1n111.2w-14.3n112.6w, 14.1n111.2w-16.0613n155.495w into the GreatCircleMapper for more information
The previous mapping for comparison

* The previous vector and the previous straightline projection's endpoint have been corrected on this mapping through recalculations using the most recent positions.
Updated HPC map

Quoting ProgressivePulse:


I would agree but the convection has been ongoing through the diurnal cycles and is now starting to fire up again.

Surely has that "I wanna be a cyclone" look to it however the big question is can it?



Looks like it be trying something ehh?
HPC map looks nothing like the JMA, especially TX totals....
Actually I think that the Gfs is developing Emilia and Fabio.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:

Whole lotta nothin out there.
Wave was looking good earlier,but now ewwwwwwwwwwwww!
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
There might not be much out there right now but this is July and we always have atleast 1 hurricane in the Atlantic this month.... Just Saying

Taco :o)
714. emguy
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:


Looks like it be trying something ehh?


Hmmm...I think if it tries to do something, the area to follow is the weaker looking mass north of Hispanola. My look on this is that the wave has split.

Part of it is pregressive through the Carribean and clear eat-west winds are evident throughout. The other part of it is lagging in the Atlantic north of Hispanola. An area of greater turning, and eplainably so, it is the northern axis of the wave.

Mean time...whats going for now is those mountains over Hispanola, which serve as a brick wall by interrupting the rapid east-west flow through the Carribean, allowing the turning portion of the wave to turn over on itself and close off.

The downside, is that the flow off the mountains is a downhill motion, which dries the lower atmosphere and inhibits thunderstorm development.

Otherwise, I would actually like the upper air pattern as a source of venillation right this minute. It's not ideal, but suitable for development.

Looking forward, the system will/would have a greater chance of developing now...once west of Hispanola on entrance to the Bahamas pending this...Does the upper air pattern truely progress westward with the wave, or does the wave run right into the Upper level low and tutt? Looking at the water vapor, the upper level low is moving westward over Florida and the tutt is flattenning out. Depending on orientation and strength, the tutt could either shear it to death...or create a very, very interesting situation.

My chips are in, don't be surprised at development. I know folks...models, models, models...no support, but synoptic meteorology is where it's at. That's where the fun of forecasting is really at. Look at something, use all the many wonderful tools and resources we have available, and forcast. :)
EM Guy, thanks for the explanation! I was looking at it earlier and it looked good,and now it looks to be waning. All the items you are talking about are above my paygrade,but I always like more info and thoughts from all on her(Well almost all) lol. Thanks Again!
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:


Looks like it be trying something ehh?


Maybe, we'll see. Most of the Vort is transiting N of Hispaniola / Haiti and pulling in all the dry mountain air. As I said earlier, best chance would be to pull up to around the TCI area up by the greatest mid-level turning. 700mb Vort is below.

850mb is still stuck down on the coast.

I learn more things from you good folks,my old brain appreciates it.Just hope the old gray matter retains it.
10:50 pm SE ( 137 deg ) 17.7 kts
10:40 pm SE ( 138 deg ) 17.5 kts
10:30 pm SE ( 140 deg ) 17.3 kts
10:20 pm SE ( 142 deg ) 17.5 kts
10:10 pm SE ( 145 deg ) 17.3 kts
10:00 pm SSE ( 150 deg )

Station 41046 - E Bahamas

Does this match surface winds on models? Arent they showing easterly or ene flow?
Did everybody go night night?
Quoting emguy:


Hmmm...I think if it tries to do something, the area to follow is the weaker looking mass north of Hispanola. My look on this is that the wave has split.

Part of it is pregressive through the Carribean and clear eat-west winds are evident throughout. The other part of it is lagging in the Atlantic north of Hispanola. An area of greater turning, and eplainably so, it is the northern axis of the wave.

Mean time...whats going for now is those mountains over Hispanola, which serve as a brick wall by interrupting the rapid east-west flow through the Carribean, allowing the turning portion of the wave to turn over on itself and close off.

The downside, is that the flow off the mountains is a downhill motion, which dries the lower atmosphere and inhibits thunderstorm development.

Otherwise, I would actually like the upper air pattern as a source of venillation right this minute. It's not ideal, but suitable for development.

Looking forward, the system will/would have a greater chance of developing now...once west of Hispanola on entrance to the Bahamas pending this...Does the upper air pattern truely progress westward with the wave, or does the wave run right into the Upper level low and tutt? Looking at the water vapor, the upper level low is moving westward over Florida and the tutt is flattenning out. Depending on orientation and strength, the tutt could either shear it to death...or create a very, very interesting situation.

My chips are in, don't be surprised at development. I know folks...models, models, models...no support, but synoptic meteorology is where it's at. That's where the fun of forecasting is really at. Look at something, use all the many wonderful tools and resources we have available, and forcast. :)
The wave has such low amplitude that wind would not be flowing off the mountain like that. Wind flow over the wave is shifting from the SE to the East. No where near meridional enough for significant flow to come off the mountain and into the circulation.
Thanks for the input tom! You feeling back to normal?
Im watching the Reds-Padres, I TIVO it, its 1-0 Reds going to bottom of 6th,good pitching duel.
Blog not working for me tonight. UGH! And with so much going on! LOL yes, sarcasm flag on. :D
Is there a way to auto update the blog so it automatically refreshes?
727. DDR
The itcz is in full swing over Trinidad tonight,maybe 2 inches in my area tonight.
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
Thanks for the input tom! You feeling back to normal?
I'm feeling better but I still have a cough and congestion, hopefully it goes away soon, it's getting annoying lol
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
Is there a way to auto update the blog so it automatically refreshes?


Firefox has an Add-on called AutoRefresh
Quoting TomTaylor:
I'm feeling better but I still have a cough and congestion, hopefully it goes away soon, it's getting annoying lol


Not trying to bring your spirit down man, but evrybody i know thats had that crud keeps it for weeks. They think its gone, then it jumps back on em. But it gradually gets better of course. Just keep yourself hydrated. That helps your body fight it.
Quoting K8eCane:


Not trying to bring your spirit down man, but evrybody i know thats had that crud keeps it for weeks. They think its gone, then it jumps back on em. But it gradually gets better of course. Just keep yourself hydrated. That helps your body fight it.


Drink, drink drink...unless of course your doctor has you on a fluid restriction. Not likely
Quoting K8eCane:


Im sorry. That comment tripped my trigger because Im a nurse.
Quoting sunlinepr:


Firefox has an Add on calle AutoRefresh


Thanks! I am using Google, I do have Firefox also but rarely use it. I will give it a try.
Quoting TomTaylor:
I'm feeling better but I still have a cough and congestion, hopefully it goes away soon, it's getting annoying lol


Good luck with it, it sure can be a rough go!
Quoting AtHomeInTX:
Blog not working for me tonight. UGH! And with so much going on! LOL yes, sarcasm flag on. :D

The carib wave is apparently also two entities like Debby 'was'.... the Northern half will probably split off to the EGOM, and the remaining energy might compose itself later and head over to us.
I'm unsure of all these rain chances, per the forecast and the JMA accum precip. I read vague references to 'low out of Mexico' and such, but can't tease out the players who are bringing the rain.
Usually it's the other way around, I see the players and the forecast doesn't and won't plug it in :)
Wow! Little different than last year. It's about to get really soggy-er. :)


Quoting redwagon:

The carib wave is apparently also two entities like Debby 'was'.... the Northern half will probably split off to the EGOM, and the remaining energy might compose itself later and head over to us.
I'm unsure of all these rain chances, per the forecast and the JMA accum precip. I read vague references to 'low out of Mexico' and such, but can't tease out the players who are bringing the rain.
Usually it's the other way around, I see the players and the forecast doesn't and won't plug it in :)


I think this is some of the reason for the rains. Hope y'all get some out there.

SYNOPSIS...
A SUBTROPICAL DOME OF PRESSURE IS FOUND ACROSS MISSOURI. ITS OUTER
SOUTHEAST PERIPHERY IS MARKED BY AN EASTERLY WAVE/INVERTED TROUGH
.WITH AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH JACKSONVILLE TO GULF POINT 27N 88W.

THE WESTWARD-MOVING WAVE WILL REACH A LINE (FROM MOBILE TO GULF
POINT 27N 88W) BY SATURDAY...BEFORE LANDFALLING THE UPPER TEXAS
COAST ON SUNDAY.

AN UNUSUAL MIDWEST COLD FRONT WILL TRAVEL SOUTH...REACHING
NORTHERN LOUISIANA ON TUESDAY...BEFORE STALLING ACROSS
CENTRAL LOUISIANA ON WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE LIKELY WITH THIS SYSTEM.
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:


Thanks! I am using Google, I do have Firefox also but rarely use it. I will give it a try.


Look for Google Chrome Addons....
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


I think this is some of the reason for the rains. Hope y'all get some out there.

SYNOPSIS....

I dunno... the Balcones Escarpment has done an outstanding job of preventing moisture from the S and E from jumping up and messing up our hair this year. :(
At the risk of another deletion, I came out to my father. My step mother unexpectedly asked me on Wednesday, so I was honest. Today (the 5th) I told him. Apparently he already suspected it. Initially I thought everything went well, but on the way home from the Mississippi Gulf Coast (family trip) today, he started cursing more than I've ever seen coming from him in my entire life. I'm just going to sit back and let him absorb everything.

Anyway, just thought I'd update.
Quoting sunlinepr:


Look for Google Chrome Addons....


Found one,have installed,will see how it works.
Quoting redwagon:

I dunno... the Balcones Escarpment has done an outstanding job of preventing moisture from the S and E from jumping up and messing up our hair this year. :(


We've got plenty of that here. Don't even have to walk outside and your hair starts growing. lol
I also mailed the above post to everyone who mailed me just in case it got deleted again. Sorry if you already saw this post by the time you read the email. :P

Thanks for the support, guys. REALLY appreciate it.
Quoting KoritheMan:
At the risk of another deletion, I came out to my father. My step mother unexpectedly asked me on Wednesday, so I was honest. Today (the 5th) I told him. Apparently he already suspected it. Initially I thought everything went well, but on the way home from the Mississippi Gulf Coast (family trip) today, he started cursing more than I've ever seen coming from him in my entire life. I'm just going to sit back and let him absorb everything.

Anyway, just thought I'd update.


Yeah give him time. It actually took me a while the other night to remember what me and my dad used to fight about. And boy did we ever! But we get along a lot better now. Hope it goes well for you and your dad too. :)
Quoting KoritheMan:
At the risk of another deletion, I came out to my father. My step mother unexpectedly asked me on Wednesday, so I was honest. Today (the 5th) I told him. Apparently he already suspected it. Initially I thought everything went well, but on the way home from the Mississippi Gulf Coast (family trip) today, he started cursing more than I've ever seen coming from him in my entire life. I'm just going to sit back and let him absorb everything.

Anyway, just thought I'd update.
I am proud of you.everything will come to normal I assure you.
747. emguy
Quoting TomTaylor:
The wave has such low amplitude that wind would not be flowing off the mountain like that. Wind flow over the wave is shifting from the SE to the East. No where near meridional enough for significant flow to come off the mountain and into the circulation.


Where I understand what you are saying, and how you are relating it to my comments, my one strong word of caution to you is that you have not considered the atmosphere as a column, or it's relationships with the earth within 3-dimensional space. What has merit at the surface, does not have merit above. With Hispanola at 10,000 FT...and at a level well above the surface "reflection" you are correct in referencing, there is vorticity...and that flow does translate to the surface coming down the slopes of Hispanola thanks to the widespread mountanous terrain the island has.

Shortwave shows very nice rotation tonight...and right on cue...visible in the lack of thunderstorms, which is to be expected, as that downslope dries the air out significantly.

It's something to watch...
CMC showing some rain across TX as well.

750. emguy
Quoting KoritheMan:
At the risk of another deletion, I came out to my father. My step mother unexpectedly asked me on Wednesday, so I was honest. Today (the 5th) I told him. Apparently he already suspected it. Initially I thought everything went well, but on the way home from the Mississippi Gulf Coast (family trip) today, he started cursing more than I've ever seen coming from him in my entire life. I'm just going to sit back and let him absorb everything.

Anyway, just thought I'd update.


Hey Kori, lets talk weather! That comment is not meant to be a lack of understanding. I'm a guy who hopes to meet a special girl, and you are a guy with other desires I don't relate to, but that difference doesn't matter to me. We all offer this world something special, something dynamic, whatever it may be. Your tennacity and oppeness on this in fear of rejection is special and very couragous, so you've definately added street cred to your user name. Kori, you're the man. I agree with evveryone else, things will work out with your family. In the mean time, you've got a group of online friends that back you through an interest in the weather. To that end, lets all talk weather!
Will there be any relief for the heatwave?
Quoting RussianWinter:
Will there be any relief for the heatwave?




a retreating then rebuilding heat
by the next full moon
there will be a storm
in the atlantic basin
Quoting emguy:


Where I understand what you are saying, and how you are relating it to my comments, my one strong word of caution to you is that you have not considered the atmosphere as a column, or it's relationships with the earth within 3-dimensional space. What has merit at the surface, does not have merit above. With Hispanola at 10,000 FT...and at a level well above the surface "reflection" you are correct in referencing, there is vorticity...and that flow does translate to the surface coming down the slopes of Hispanola thanks to the widespread mountanous terrain the island has.

Shortwave shows very nice rotation tonight...and right on cue...visible in the lack of thunderstorms, which is to be expected, as that downslope dries the air out significantly.

It's something to watch...
I understand what you're saying but I think the other reason convection has died down is upper divergence has become less favorable. The upper environment will remain poor as it is now approaching an upper level trough. Wave is worth watching for rain in Florida and the Bahamas, otherwise it's no threat to development right now, which is also supported by all the models.
Can you all take a look or post a Devorak IR Loop,let me know if anything got a spin north coast Dominican Republic?
Just read your last tom,weak surface circulation there?
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:




a retreating then rebuilding heat


keep it the hell away from me in California. Ive been having a good summer so far...knock on wood
Looked to me like lower clouds had some spin
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
Just read your last tom,weak surface circulation there?
I edited the post a bit. Yea the circulation is weak, not very amplified at all and not much of a turn in wind direction. Changes from about SE to E.

Here's the ASCAT pass

Quoting KoritheMan:
Late night blog update.
Saw your post earlier, congrats on telling your parents Kori.

I'm sure you're dad will accept it eventually but if not its still better that you told him, so be proud of yourself.
Quoting TomTaylor:
I edited the post a bit. Yea the circulation is weak, not very amplified at all and not much of a turn in wind direction. Changes from about SE to E.

Here's the ASCAT pass



Thanks Buddy!
just got off from work. good evening/ morning everyone. does any major model predict any tropical activity soon anyone?
Well Im gonna call it a night,will be up early yo check on Danny Boy and this caribbean/atlantic wave. thanks for all you guys help! Esp you Tom,as you almost always answer my dumb questions no matter how off the wall they are...........goodnight
Quoting bigwes6844:
just got off from work. good evening/ morning everyone. does any major model predict any tropical activity soon anyone?


If you go on a Mexican vacation,ya might get lucky!
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:


If you go on a Mexican vacation,ya might get lucky!
LOL
damn basically nothing in the atlantic
louisiana and mississippi remember her 7 years ago. She made her landfall on this day.
Hurricane Cindy
Link

wow ND blob
.............good morning folks,not much development with this, but worth watching
Big thunderstorms this morning moving along the coast! Almost continuous lightning with them! I got up to go fishing but it's not looking good for that. Drag...
The Daily Wind-Up
NEW TROPICAL DISCUSSION OUT
System Over Land
http://035d83b.netsolhost.com/
Quoting K8eCane:


Not trying to bring your spirit down man, but evrybody i know thats had that crud keeps it for weeks. They think its gone, then it jumps back on em. But it gradually gets better of course. Just keep yourself hydrated. That helps your body fight it.
This is the third week I'm trying to get over this thing... just sayin'. Fluids, vitamins, rest. Then the 3rd day u feel like it's coming back... meh.

I'm finally feeling much better this week. But is it annoying, or what.

Quoting AtHomeInTX:
Wow! Little different than last year. It's about to get really soggy-er. :)


Nice forecast.

Quoting redwagon:

I dunno... the Balcones Escarpment has done an outstanding job of preventing moisture from the S and E from jumping up and messing up our hair this year. :(
It's pretty cool to actually know what the Balcones Escarpment even is, coming from my location.... lol... Pity about the rain, though. U guys didn't get the rain u should have in March and April, which makes it worse.

system.needs.some.heavy.rain
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Big thunderstorms this morning moving along the coast! Almost continuous lightning with them! I got up to go fishing but it's not looking good for that. Drag...


Looks like another flood situation for Pensacola.

I picked up .86" of rain yesterday. That's on top of .22" on Wednesday.
That's a big blob over the Northern States


TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT FRI JUL 6 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM DANIEL...LOCATED ABOUT 640 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR
FAVORABLE FOR SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN


We should have a new invest shortly.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:


We should have a new invest shortly.

Very shortly actually.

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_ep972012.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201207061148
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
Quoting Grothar:
That's a big blob over the Northern States




And if it went I to the gulf.... Get the fresca...

You heard it first from gro that folks :)

Morning everyone!
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

Very shortly actually

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_ep972012.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201207061148
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END


Do we have an ATCF update on Daniel?
Morning everybody, BTW... I'll add the "good" after I've finished my first pot of coffee... lol

Got a call so I don't have to be outta here until 9:30... ahhhh... the good life.... lol

Quoting StormTracker2K:


Looks like another flood situation for Pensacola.



Youch!
Quoting weatherh98:


Do we have an ATCF update on Daniel?

As of the 6z update he's still 65mph and 995mb... A new one will be out within an hour... It'll probably keep him at 65mph or bump him up to 70mph.
Quoting BahaHurican:
Morning everybody, BTW... I'll add the "good" after I've finished my first pot of coffee... lol

Got a call so I don't have to be outta here until 9:30... ahhhh... the good life.... lol



You got it made in the shade now don't cha baha! I'm grateful that we have to taper, didnt have to wake up to 615 as opposed to the usual 515
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

As of the 6z update he's still 65mph and 995mb... A new one will be out within an hour... It'll probably keep him at 65mph or bump him up to 70mph.


Okay I haven't seen a sat image of him yet so I can't tell if it's bogus or what. I'll go check ADT numbers.
Good morning. New weather satellite has been launched ...



Source

MSG-3 set to ensure quality of Europe%u2019s weather service from geostationary orbit

6 July 2012
PR 21 2012 - The latest weather satellite in Europe%u2019s highly successful Meteosat second-generation series is on its way after lifting off on an Ariane 5 at 21:36 GMT (23:36 CEST) on Thursday, 5 July from Europe%u2019s Spaceport at the Guiana Space Centre in Kourou, French Guiana.

The satellite%u2019s sensors will ensure that Europe and Africa continue to receive up-to-date weather coverage.
Some 34 minutes into flight, the third Meteosat Second Generation satellite was released into its targeted elliptical transfer orbit. It is now being controlled from ESA%u2019s European Space Operations Centre, in Darmstadt, Germany.

In ten days, once the initial operations are completed, MSG-3 will be handed over to the satellite%u2019s owner, the European Organisation for the Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites %u2013 EUMETSAT %u2013 to commission the payload.

After commissioning, when MSG-3 has become Meteosat-10, it will be stationed at 0 longitude, over the Gulf of Guinea on the Equator, in geostationary orbit, where its speed precisely matches Earth%u2019s rotation.

%u201CTonight%u2019s launch allows EUMETSAT and ESA to continue providing Europeans with high quality observations of weather from space, with MSG-3 being especially valuable in rapid detection and warning of extreme weather situations,%u201D said ESA%u2019s Director General, Jean-Jacques Dordain.

%u201CFor more than three decades now, the exemplary cooperation between ESA and EUMETSAT has been the basis of the success of the Meteosat and EPS/Metop programmes.

%u201CThese programmes have ensured high-quality weather forecasts, the successive generations have improved these forecasts and they have brought tangible economic benefits for and improving the daily life of every European. Two generations have now been developed by ESA and EUMETSAT.%u201D

%u201CMSG-3 ensures the continuity of the present service. Together with EUMETSAT, ESA is working on the development of the next series of weather satellites, Meteosat Third Generation%u201D, said ESA%u2019s Director of Earth Observation, Volker Liebig.

%u201COnce operational at the end of this decade, this next generation will provide a quantum leap in terms of technology and performance, providing among others faster imaging, more spectral channels and an atmospheric sounding capability allowing for the measurements of trace gas profiles.%u201D

ESA%u2019s role in weather and climate watch is not limited to the Meteosat series of satellites. It has also developed the MetOp series of polar-orbiting weather satellites - also operated by EUMETSAT - planned to be followed by the MetOp Second Generation series%u2013 to be submitted to the ESA Ministerial Council in November for approval.

The second MetOp is at the Baikonur Cosmodrome, Kazakhstan, ready for launch on 19 September.

About Meteosat Second Generation

MSG is a joint programme undertaken by ESA and EUMETSAT. ESA is responsible for the development of satellites fulfilling user and system requirements defined by EUMETSAT and of the procurement of recurrent satellites on its behalf. ESA also performs the Launch and Early Orbit Phase operations required to place the spacecraft in geostationary orbit, before handing it over to EUMETSAT for exploitation.

EUMETSAT develops all ground systems required to deliver products and services to users and to respond to their evolving needs, procures launch services and operates the full system for the benefit of users.

MSG-3 is the third in a series of four satellites introduced in 2002. These spin-stabilised satellites carry the primary Spinning Enhanced Visible and Infrared Imager, or SEVIRI.

SEVIRI focuses on Europe and Africa to deliver enhanced weather coverage, in order to improve local forecasts, in particular for rapidly developing storms. It scans Earth%u2019s surface and atmosphere every 15 minutes in 12 different wavelengths, to track cloud development and measure temperatures.

SEVIRI can pick out features as small as a kilometre across in the visible bands, and three kilometres in the infrared.

In addition to its weather-watching mission and collection of climate records, MSG-3 has two secondary payloads.

The Global Earth Radiation Budget sensor will measure the amount of solar energy that is radiated back into space to determine how much energy is introduced into the climate system and to provide insights into the atmospheric circulation between the day and night sides. A Search & Rescue transponder will turn the satellite into a relay for distress signals from emergency beacons.

The MSG satellites were built in Cannes, France, by a European industrial team led by Thales Alenia Space, France. More than 50 subcontractors from 13 European countries are involved.

The last of the series, MSG-4, is planned for launch in 2015.

More informations
Would you look at that....



No wonder the wx is so clear and bright out this a.m. .... lol



Looks like our rain chances have gone down.
ADT numbers are

3.4/994.2/53kts

Supports what the NHC said
Quoting BahaHurican:
Would you look at that....



....Aliens
So if the best of the vorticity with this Twave had migrated N of Hispaniola as pple were discussing late last night, I suppose that means rain chances for the Caymans are likely way down for the next 24...
omg the atl is boring
A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 28N75W IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...THROUGH CENTRAL FLORIDA...ACROSS THE NORTHERN
BAHAMAS
...TO A 1017 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR
28N84W...BEYOND THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF OF MEXICO COAST.

Shouldn't this be "across the northern Bahamas... through central Florida"?

That TUTT is regressing westward, but not fast enough, it seems, to keep ventilating the Twave.


Quoting CaribBoy:
omg the atl is boring
Hey, carib. Did u get any rain w/ the Twave that's passing through the CAR?

Quoting SFLWeatherman:
97p
97P is the west Pacific. East Pacific is 97E.
Pensacola and Winnipeg, get ready for some rain!

Glad somebody is putting up fresh satellites of the non-secret mission variety.

Now that NASA is reporting on magnetic portals, we might get some serious exploration going on.

Stay cool!
Good Morning..looks like a heavy rain event set up for my neck of the woods all the way down to the gulf coast --the Euro also has the same thing







Tropical masses of rain in Germany yesterday, f.e. in Hamburg.

youtube hamburg

youtube hamburg

youtube hamburg

And don't miss this one
youtube hail - winter in summer - southern Germany

Many more videos available
The latest weather satellite in Europe%u2019s highly successful Meteosat second-generation series is on its way after lifting off on an Ariane 5 at 21:36 GMT (23:36 CEST) on Thursday, 5 July from Europe%u2019s Spaceport at the Guiana Space Centre in Kourou, French Guiana.

Thanks for info, Barb....

1. Pity Pat didn't have a launch cycle for this... I suppose the launch would have been visible only from Guyana, though.

2. Wonder how long it'll take EUMETSAT to make the imagery from it available via the internet...

3. Makes me wonder when the US is going to get back onstream with its wx satellite launch program...
Good Morning People. That wave near the greater Antilles not looking too good this morning. Sheer has been getting the best of it since yesterday. The models are not gospel; that has been the story of the past several weeks but this is the hardest nut to predict (cyclogenis). Especially at this time of the year. Lot's of folks on here are itching for a few more Atlantic storms in July, given the quick start to the season, but that was a real anomaly event. We are pretty much back to "normal" July climatology for the Atlantic basin at this point.

From an SST standpoint, the most fertile ground out there is in the Caribbean moving up into Florida and the Gulf. Thus, even if the numbers are down at the end of the season because of El Nino effects, if we get one big cane heading into the Caribbean, with low sheer conditions during the storm, we could see a Cat 3-4 sometime in the peak between Aug 15th-Sept. For now, we just have to keep on eye on the models and on frontal remnants exiting the Conus over the next few weeks for possible development closer to home.
802. For nothing Baha. Thanks.
BBL Barb
By this speed, we will be behind 2005 in number of named storms by July 11(10). That's when Emily formed.
806. DDR
Good morning
No shortage of rainfall last night into this morning in Trinidad,1.6 inches so far.
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
Good Morning People. That wave near the greater Antilles not looking too good this morning. Sheer has been getting the best of it since yesterday. The models are not gospel; that has been the story of the past several weeks but this is the hardest nut to predict (cyclogenis). Especially at this time of the year. Lot's of folks on here are itching for a few more Atlantic storms in July, given the quick start to the season, but that was a real anomaly event. We are pretty much back to "normal" July climatology for the Atlantic basin at this point.

From an SST standpoint, the most fertile ground out there is in the Caribbean moving up into Florida and the Gulf. Thus, even if the numbers are down at the end of the season because of El Nino effects, if we get one big cane heading into the Caribbean, with low sheer conditions during the storm, we could see a Cat 3-4 sometime in the peak between Aug 15th-Sept. For now, we just have to keep on eye on the models and on frontal remnants exiting the Conus over the next few weeks for possible development closer to home.
Morning.

I was kinda wondering why the Twave basically disappeared N of 20N in the forecasts... now I think I understand... lol
808. 7544
morning all looks like the pr wave is trying to get a spin going as its now reaching the bahamas maybe it can add some convection latter on today we may have something to watch lol
Like Dr. Masters stated in his article, this is another multi-billion dollar disaster in the making. Never seen 3/4 of the country under drought conditions.



Temperatures are to temporarily moderate to slightly above average for a few days then its straight back to the furnace.

8-14 day



One month outlook:


Quoting BahaHurican:
Morning.

I was kinda wondering why the Twave basically disappeared N of 20N in the forecasts... now I think I understand... lol


A lot depends on what loops you are looking at. The rainbow loops (the purtiest) looked real impressive yesterday with the convection flaring up, but I was looking at the vis and water vapor loops, and the sheer was pretty relentless over it by yesterday afternoon.
Quoting Bobbyweather:
By this speed, we will be behind 2005 in number of named storms by July 11(10). That's when Emily formed.
We've had an anomalously swift start to the season; normally we're behind 2005 before we even leave June... lol

Earliest chances of Ernesto IMO come after July 15th, though I haven't looked at latest GFS yet to see how much that has been pushed back. A lot depends on if the GFS view of the MJO pans out.
Quoting weathermanwannabe:


A lot depends on what loops you are looking at. The rainbow loops (the purtiest) looked real impressive yesterday with the convection flaring up, but I was looking at the vis and water vapor loops, and the sheer was pretty relentless over it by yesterday afternoon.
Agreed... yesterday morning I wasn't looking at the upper atmospheric conditions.
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
97p



that 97E not 97P
Quoting ILwthrfan:
Like Dr. Masters stated in his article, this is another multi-billion dollar disaster in the making. Never seen 3/4 of the country under drought conditions.



Temperatures are to temporarily moderate to slightly above average for a few days then its straight back to the furnace.

8-14 day



One month outlook:





you for got one



Quoting Tazmanian:



that 97E not 97P
That's what I said... lol

Hey, Taz... how was your 4th of July?

Refresher:

97L - Atlantic
97E - East Pacific
97C - Central Pacific
97W - West Pacific
97A - Arabian Sea
97B - Bay of Bengal
97S - Southern Hemisphere West of 135E [includes S Indian Ocean]
97P - Southern Hemisphere East of 135E [basically the entire South Pacific]

Does anybody know what, if anything, invests in the SIndian basin are labelled?

EDIT: Did u know Navy website has access to archived recent years' tracks and imagery?

Quoting ILwthrfan:
Like Dr. Masters stated in his article, this is another multi-billion dollar disaster in the making. Never seen 3/4 of the country under drought conditions.



Temperatures are to temporarily moderate to slightly above average for a few days then its straight back to the furnace.

8-14 day



One month outlook:




All of this heat is just drying the soil out at a record pace. We could be seeing a Dust Bowl in the making across the MidWest.

At 8:00am est. it was 84 degrees in Chicago! WOW!!



Heat indices

It's currently 88 degrees right now in St. Louis at 7:50 am in the morning. ughhhh.

Link
Good morning everyone...since the topic seems to be about the Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough (TUTT) I thought I would present this chart. These are the 4 features that come into play during the hurricane season .

Usually when the TUTT extends through the Caribbean a lot of times tropical waves get sheared apart, when the TUTT retreats to the North and allow for the Subequatorial Ridge to build in westerly windshear relaxes and conditions become conducive for development, same with when the TUTT pushes South that allows for the Subtropical Ridge to build in.

One thing to note on the Subequatorial Ridge is often times tropical waves find themselves moving too fast from the Atlantic into the Caribbean at 20-25 mph. inducing what some call speed shear or strong easterlies, when that happens convection sometimes outruns whatever circulation develops or development is slowed.

Heat is also on in Eastern Europe. If we keep this up then we will no doubt be dealing with one of the hottest years EVER!

Quoting StormTracker2K:


All of this heat is just drying the soil out at a record pace. We could be seeing a Dust Bowl in the making across the MidWest.



I have heard people make eerie comparisons of this year's summer to that one. Not a pleasant thought at all.
Quoting ILwthrfan:


I have heard people make eerie comparisons of this year's summer to that one. Not a pleasant thought at all.


I think the reason for the comparisons is because of this unrelenting heat which is fueling this drought by tdrying the soil out at a record pace and if you think about this has been going on since January due to the lack of snow in many areas across the MidWest.
Quoting ilovehurricanes13:
hurricane at 11am

65mph TS at 11...

EP, 04, 2012070612, , BEST, 0, 147N, 1144W, 55, 995, TS
820. GTcooliebai 8:51 AM EDT on July 06, 2012

Great chart. The sub-equatorial ridge has not fully alligned into the optimum position yet which normally occurs in the peak of the season. In terms of speed, the waves themselves will start slowing down in a few few weeks, to that optimum 10-12 knot pace, which reduces the "speed" sheer and can allow for better vertical stacking as they develop. Not quite there yet.
I mean there were 70 degree temps in January all the way up to the Dakotas for a time when there should have been feet of snow on the ground and then came the super heat wave back in March which brought temps to near 90 in those same locations.

Hmmm... looks much less impressive this a.m.



Quoting StormTracker2K:


All of this heat is just drying the soil out at a record pace. We could be seeing a Dust Bowl in the making across the MidWest.



That's the GFS too, which is the lowest of the model output on high temperatures today. My area's local forecast discussion said the MEX model 2 days ago was running highs today 109-114 in parts of Illinois, but they are forecasting 103-106. Same for tomorrow.
Good morning..If anyone has a moment, please coach me on how to post photo,s here on the blog. I have some from last nights storm.
1033 mb. A/B High for Fri. 13th.



Breaks down on the 19th to 1026 mb. Around that time if the SAL is low I would look for development off the coast of Africa.

Quoting StormTracker2K:
Heat is also on in Eastern Europe. If we keep this up then we will no doubt be dealing with one of the hottest years EVER!

Looks like that wx pattern from 2010, with the heat wave over eastern / central Russia and the flooding over the Indian subcontinent, is trying to set up again. Talk about miserable.
Quoting StormTracker2K:


I think the reason for the comparisons is because of this unrelenting heat which is fueling this drought by tdrying the soil out at a record pace and if you think about this has been going on since January due to the lack of snow in many areas across the MidWest.
I think there are several similarities in the larger wx patterns [cold PDO, ENSO, NAO to a lesser extent] that are worthy of note.
Quoting hydrus:
Good morning..If anyone has a moment, please coach me on how to post photo,s here on the blog. I have some from last nights storm.
Simplest way is to upload them to Wunderground using the MyPhotos option under your username. Then follow the usual process for posting graphics. Other than that, u need to find another image storage location where you can upload the pics u want to use.
Quoting BahaHurican:
I think there are several similarities in the larger wx patterns [cold PDO, ENSO, NAO to a lesser extent] that are worthy of note.
So we're on the positive NAO as well, since a negative NAO means a weaker Subtropical Ridge, weaker Icelandic Low, and as a result cooler temps. along the East Coast.

I found this Link it helps me understand it in a general way. I'm just curious is it the surface pressures the driving forces for all these weather patterns?
Looks like the wave will continue thru the Caribbean with NO DEVELOPMENT.....SHEAR is just too high for anything to form at the surface. It will continue toward the NW Caribbean into the Yucatan or possibly move into the Gulf of Mexico in about 4-5days.


NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
304 AM CDT FRI JUL 6 2012

.DISCUSSION...MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WILL BE POPS ESPECIALLY NEXT WEEK.
OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS...DEEP EASTERLY FLOW HAS CLEARLY ENHANCED THE
MOISTURE PROFILE. PWAT ON LCH AND LIX SOUNDINGS ARE OVER 2 INCHES
AND WILL LIKELY REMAIN AT THIS LEVEL THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST
CYCLE. WATER VAPOR SHOWS EASTERLY WAVE MOVING THROUGH SE U.S. AND
THIS SHOULD AID IN ENHANCING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
INHERITED POPS TODAY LOOKS GOOD FOR NOW. UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS
PROGGED TO WEAKEN AND REFORM OVER THE WESTERN U.S. BOTH GFS AND
ECMWF DIG MID LATITUDE TROUGH INTO S.E. US. WITH UPPER TUTT LOW
FORECASTED OVER THE EASTERN GULF. WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN MOISTURE
PROFILE PLANNED...WILL KEEP SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION IN
FORECAST. FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS STILL PROGGED NEAR ARKLATX BY MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. IF FRONT MOVES FURTHER SOUTH THAN PROGGED...WILL NEED
TO MONITOR FOR HEAVY RAIN/FLOOD POTENTIAL ACROSS CENTRAL LOUISIANA
AND EAST TEXAS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR OR A LITTLE BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH FORECAST CYCLE.
That Northern Blob sure is trucking along.
839. ARiot
Difficult to compare this weather with the "dust bowl" as it was more man made than caused by weather.

While it still a disaster, and we can't rule out anything in our hotter climate (that we made), we're unlikely to see such "dust bowl" conditions until aquifers and resivoirs are empty or too low to reach for the costs. Even simple windbreaks, some planted in the dustbowl recovery, are still around to stop the wholesale erosion.

Ken Burns has a documentary coming up on the dustbowl, PBS has good timing.

http://www.pbs.org/about/news/archive/2012/dust-b owl-airdate/

Also suggest a good book, "The Worst Hard Time, The Untold Story of Those Who Survived the Great American Dust Bowl"
Well, I gotta run. I'll check in later as time permits.

Ya'll have a great Friday!
06/1200 UTC 14.6N 114.5W T4.0/4.0 DANIEL -- East Pacific

Hurricane to come soon?
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
304 AM CDT FRI JUL 6 2012

.DISCUSSION...MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WILL BE POPS ESPECIALLY NEXT WEEK.
OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS...DEEP EASTERLY FLOW HAS CLEARLY ENHANCED THE
MOISTURE PROFILE. PWAT ON LCH AND LIX SOUNDINGS ARE OVER 2 INCHES
AND WILL LIKELY REMAIN AT THIS LEVEL THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST
CYCLE. WATER VAPOR SHOWS EASTERLY WAVE MOVING THROUGH SE U.S. AND
THIS SHOULD AID IN ENHANCING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
INHERITED POPS TODAY LOOKS GOOD FOR NOW. UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS
PROGGED TO WEAKEN AND REFORM OVER THE WESTERN U.S. BOTH GFS AND
ECMWF DIG MID LATITUDE TROUGH INTO S.E. US. WITH UPPER TUTT LOW
FORECASTED OVER THE EASTERN GULF.
WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN MOISTURE
PROFILE PLANNED...WILL KEEP SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION IN
FORECAST. FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS STILL PROGGED NEAR ARKLATX BY MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. IF FRONT MOVES FURTHER SOUTH THAN PROGGED...WILL NEED
TO MONITOR FOR HEAVY RAIN/FLOOD POTENTIAL ACROSS CENTRAL LOUISIANA
AND EAST TEXAS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR OR A LITTLE BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH FORECAST CYCLE.
Looks like a longwave trough trying to dig down that may be just what the Dr. ordered to break the Heat Wave. Looks like POPS will increase from central Texas across the MS/TN valley on up towards the Carolina's...oops meant North and South Carolina. I would also expect a front to drape itself across the FL. Peninsula at some point before washing out.
Quoting StormTracker2K:
I mean there were 70 degree temps in January all the way up to the Dakotas for a time when there should have been feet of snow on the ground and then came the super heat wave back in March which brought temps to near 90 in those same locations.



then the heat for june into early july
which will retreat temporary
then return for a three week stretch
from the 4th week of july
till end of the second week of august
with a storm in the atlantic basin
by the next full moon
or just before aug 2
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Looks like a longwave trough trying to dig down that may be just what the Dr. ordered to break the Heat Wave. Looks like POPS will increase from central Texas across the MS/TN valley on up towards the Carolina's...oops meant North and South Carolina. I would also expect a front to drape itself across the FL. Peninsula at some point before washing out.


That's what I was hoping. If the front gets that far south hopefully that meant a break in the heatwave and some drought relief.
Thank you Pat and Baha.
Toronto Pearson Int'l Airport
Date: 9:00 AM EDT Friday 6 July 2012
Condition: Mainly Sunny
Pressure: 29.92 inches
Tendency: rising
Visibility: 12 miles
Air Quality Health Index: 4

Temperature: 84.0°F
Dewpoint: 68.5°F
Humidity: 60 %
Wind: NW 6 mph
Humidex: 98


last day of our heat
cool front in the am swings by
Heard 109 for StL today, top of my page says 90 already there, not 115 record Doc mentioned, but believe they'll get second longest consecutive 100+ tomorrow - set three during Dust Bowl ILwthr. The 115 was set in 54, which I've heard several people compare this year to, warm early & often. Glad I gave up replica WS ring tix for tonite.

Our town's homecoming this weekend, doubt the vendors will be raking it in, too darn hot!
Itsa cruel..

Cruel Summer..
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
Toronto Pearson Int'l Airport
Date: 9:00 AM EDT Friday 6 July 2012
Condition: Mainly Sunny
Pressure: 29.92 inches
Tendency: rising
Visibility: 12 miles
Air Quality Health Index: 4

Temperature: 84.0°F
Dewpoint: 68.5°F
Humidity: 60 %
Wind: NW 6 mph
Humidex: 98


last day of our heat
cool front in the am swings by


Well I hope so. Been noticing your temps have been way higher than mine. And that just don't seem right somehow. :)



Fair

79°F

26°C

Humidity94%
Wind SpeedW 5 mph
Barometer30.06 in
Dewpoint77°F (25°C)
Visibility10.00 mi
Heat Index83°F (28°C)
wu mail fer yous keep.
Quoting FutureWx6221:
06/1200 UTC 14.6N 114.5W T4.0/4.0 DANIEL -- East Pacific

Hurricane to come soon?

It's a possibility. But for 11am NHC will probably keep the wind speeds at 65 mph, per ATCF (Automated Tropical Cyclone Forcasting).
Surely by now someone has studied the Dust Bowl years and examined fishing records to figure out if the Pacific was in a cold PDO back in the 1930s. I know farming practices exacerbated the actual Dust Bowl "dust conditions," but I would imagine oceanic conditions are one of if not The primary factors.

Does anyone know the states of ENSO, PDO, NAO and so on for the early 1930s? I could have sworn someone has studied this by now and released the results.
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Well I hope so. Been noticing your temps have been way higher than mine. And that just don't seem right somehow. :)



Fair

79°F

26°C

Humidity94%
Wind SpeedW 5 mph
Barometer30.06 in
Dewpoint77°F (25°C)
Visibility10.00 mi
Heat Index83°F (28°C)
expected hgigh today is 97 with heat indexs poss. surpassing 110
Dos anybody else see the convection-starved swirl in the SE Bahamas? Definately some kind of Low? huh? or am I crazy? lol
857. yoboi
Quoting Patrap:
wu mail fer yous keep.



hey pat i am from swla why are we going to get rain for the next week chances at 60-70%
Quoting BahaHurican:
That's what I said... lol

Hey, Taz... how was your 4th of July?

Refresher:

97L - Atlantic
97E - East Pacific
97C - Central Pacific
97W - West Pacific
97A - Arabian Sea
97B - Bay of Bengal
97S - Southern Hemisphere West of 135E [includes S Indian Ocean]
97P - Southern Hemisphere East of 135E [basically the entire South Pacific]

Does anybody know what, if anything, invests in the SIndian basin are labelled?

EDIT: Did u know Navy website has access to archived recent years' tracks and imagery?


I heard that they gave the South Atlantic a "Q" suffix, can anyone confirm this?
Quoting yoboi:



hey pat i am from swla why are we going to get rain for the next week chances at 60-70%





Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles la
304 am CDT Friday Jul 6 2012




Discussion...main forecast issue will be probability of precipitation especially next week.
Over the last 24 hours...deep easterly flow has clearly enhanced the
moisture profile. Precipitable water on lch and lix soundings are over 2 inches
and will likely remain at this level through much of the forecast
cycle. Water vapor shows easterly wave moving through southeast U.S. And
this should aid in enhancing thunderstorms across the region today.
Inherited probability of precipitation today looks good for now. Upper anticyclone is
prognosticated to weaken and reform over the western U.S. Both GFS and
European model (ecmwf) dig middle latitude trough into S.E. US. With upper TUTT low
forecasted over the eastern Gulf. With little change in moisture
profile planned...will keep scattered diurnal convection in
forecast. Frontal boundary is still prognosticated near arklatx by middle
of next week. If front moves further south than prognosticated...will need
to monitor for heavy rain/flood potential across central Louisiana
and East Texas. Temperatures should be near or a little below
normal through forecast cycle.




&&


Marine...fairly weak pressure pattern to continue through early
next week. Approach of frontal boundary and development of weak low
pressure waves along front will tighten gradient some...but overall
seas should remain at 3 feet or less. Main issue will be periodic
thunderstorm activity especially near the coast and nearshore waters
through most of the period.




&&


Preliminary point temps/pops...
klch 92 74 92 75 91 / 50 40 50 20 50
kbpt 92 73 92 75 92 / 50 30 50 20 50
kaex 94 74 94 72 93 / 50 40 50 20 50
klft 89 74 91 74 92 / 60 40 50 20 50


&&


Lch watches/warnings/advisories...
la...none.
Texas...none.
GM...none.
Quoting louisianaweatherguy:
Dos anybody else see the convection-starved swirl in the SE Bahamas? Definately some kind of Low? huh? or am I crazy? lol
Dont know. Any one have a link to that?
Toronto Pearson Int'l Airport
Date: 10:00 AM EDT Friday 6 July 2012
Condition: Mainly Sunny
Pressure: 29.91 inches
Tendency: rising
Visibility: 12 miles
Air Quality Health Index: 4

Temperature: 89.4°F
Dewpoint: 65.5°F
Humidity: 45 %
Wind: NNW 11 mph
Humidex: 101
Quoting VINNY04:
Dont know. Any one have a link to that?

It is a tropical wave that isn't popping any convection. It is just an open trough right now, and without any thunderstorm development, will likely remain that.
863. yoboi
Quoting Patrap:





Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles la
304 am CDT Friday Jul 6 2012




Discussion...main forecast issue will be probability of precipitation especially next week.
Over the last 24 hours...deep easterly flow has clearly enhanced the
moisture profile. Precipitable water on lch and lix soundings are over 2 inches
and will likely remain at this level through much of the forecast
cycle. Water vapor shows easterly wave moving through southeast U.S. And
this should aid in enhancing thunderstorms across the region today.
Inherited probability of precipitation today looks good for now. Upper anticyclone is
prognosticated to weaken and reform over the western U.S. Both GFS and
European model (ecmwf) dig middle latitude trough into S.E. US. With upper TUTT low
forecasted over the eastern Gulf. With little change in moisture
profile planned...will keep scattered diurnal convection in
forecast. Frontal boundary is still prognosticated near arklatx by middle
of next week. If front moves further south than prognosticated...will need
to monitor for heavy rain/flood potential across central Louisiana
and East Texas. Temperatures should be near or a little below
normal through forecast cycle.




&&


Marine...fairly weak pressure pattern to continue through early
next week. Approach of frontal boundary and development of weak low
pressure waves along front will tighten gradient some...but overall
seas should remain at 3 feet or less. Main issue will be periodic
thunderstorm activity especially near the coast and nearshore waters
through most of the period.




&&


Preliminary point temps/pops...
klch 92 74 92 75 91 / 50 40 50 20 50
kbpt 92 73 92 75 92 / 50 30 50 20 50
kaex 94 74 94 72 93 / 50 40 50 20 50
klft 89 74 91 74 92 / 60 40 50 20 50


&&


Lch watches/warnings/advisories...
la...none.
Texas...none.
GM...none.




thank you sir....
Quoting jeffs713:

It is a tropical wave that isn't popping any convection. It is just an open trough right now, and without any thunderstorm development, will likely remain that.
Oh ok. Thanks
Quoting VINNY04:
Dont know. Any one have a link to that?



(took me a few minutes to resize it so it didn't break the blog)
Pre-Emilia looking good. Should get higher percentages at the next TWO.

Quoting yoboi:




thank you sir....

If anything wanted to go home-grown in the GOM, next Mon-Thurs would be a great timeframe to do it.
868. 7544
Quoting louisianaweatherguy:
Dos anybody else see the convection-starved swirl in the SE Bahamas? Definately some kind of Low? huh? or am I crazy? lol


yeap posted that a bout 2 hours agao and its still spining up but i called it the pr wave so i guess we could rename it the bahamma wave now as it looks to be moving wnw imo lets see if it can get some convection to it today no u not krazy lol
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
Toronto Pearson Int'l Airport
Date: 10:00 AM EDT Friday 6 July 2012
Condition: Mainly Sunny
Pressure: 29.91 inches
Tendency: rising
Visibility: 12 miles
Air Quality Health Index: 4

Temperature: 89.4°F
Dewpoint: 65.5°F
Humidity: 45 %
Wind: NNW 11 mph
Humidex: 101
Good morning Keep..Would you please send me a WU mail on how to upload some photos I took on my digital camera to the blog. I have never done this before and need help.
Quoting louisianaweatherguy:
Dos anybody else see the convection-starved swirl in the SE Bahamas? Definately some kind of Low? huh? or am I crazy? lol


Quoting StormTracker2K:
Heat is also on in Eastern Europe. If we keep this up then we will no doubt be dealing with one of the hottest years EVER!



It's the middle of the day and 92 or so at the hottest and east Europe is a got 76 in the late afternoon lol
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Pre-Emilia looking good. Should get higher percentages at the next TWO.



40-50
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
This huge branch came down on my Dad,s motorcycle.