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Bonnie weakens to a tropical depression

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 8:40 PM GMT on July 23, 2010

Tropical Depression Bonnie is nearing the end of its traverse of South Florida, and passage over land has significantly disrupted the small storm. Satellite images show almost no heavy thunderstorms near Bonnie's center of circulation, and the center is now exposed to view. Radar-estimated rainfall from the Key West radar shows that Bonnie dumped very little rain on South Florida--maximum rainfall amounts from the storm were about four inches over a small region southwest of Miami. Water vapor satellite loops show that Bonnie is embedded in a large area of dry air, thanks to an upper level low to the west over the Gulf of Mexico. This low has brought an increasing amount of wind shear to Bonnie today, and shear has increased from 20 knots this morning to 25 knots this afternoon. Surface observations in South Florida currently don't show any tropical storm force winds. Bonnie's top winds today were at Fowey Rocks, which had sustained winds of 46 mph, gusting to 53 mph, at 10:45 am EDT.


Figure 1. Satellite image of Bonnie from NASA's MODIS instrument, taken at 17:10 UTC July 23, 2010. Image credit: NASA/.

Track Forecast for Bonnie
The latest set of model runs from 8am EDT (12Z) are very similar to the three previous sets of runs, and this degree of consistency gives me confidence that Bonnie will stay within the cone of uncertainty depicted on the track forecast images. The projected track will take Bonnie over the oil spill region, and the storm's strong east to southeasterly winds will begin to affect the oil slick on Saturday morning. Assuming Bonnie doesn't dissipate over the next day, the storm's winds, coupled with a likely storm surge of 2 - 4 feet, will drive oil into a substantial area of the Louisiana marshlands. However, the current NHC forecast has Bonnie making landfall in Louisiana near 9pm CDT Saturday night. According to the latest tide information, this will be near the time of low tide. This will result in much less oil entering the Louisiana marshlands than occurred during Hurricane Alex in June. That storm brought a storm surge of 2 - 4 feet and sustained winds of 20 - 30 mph that lasted for several days, including several high tide cycles. The latest oil trajectory forecasts from NOAA (Figure 2) predicts potential oil impacts along a 150-mile stretch of Louisiana coast on Sunday.


Figure 2. Oil Trajectory forecast for Sunday for the Deepwater Horizon oil spill. Image credit: NOAA.

Intensity Forecast for Bonnie
Bonnie has been disrupted by its passage over land, and it will take at least six hours for the storm to reorganize once it moves over the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico tonight. This process will be hindered by the large upper-level low to its west. If the low remains in its present location, relative to Bonnie, it will bring high wind shear of about 20 - 30 knots to the storm. This will allow for only slow intensification, or may even destroy Bonnie. Bonnie is unlikely to intensify to more than a 50 mph tropical storm, and I give a 30% chance it will dissipate over the Gulf of Mexico before making landfall. The GFDL model predicts Bonnie could hit the Gulf Coast as a 50 mph tropical storm, but the other major models such as the HWRF, GFS, ECMWF, and NOGAPS show a much weaker storm. I don't give Bonnie any chance of becoming a hurricane. NHC is putting the odds of Bonnie being a hurricane at 2 pm Saturday at 4% (5pm advisory.)

If you are wondering about the specific probabilities of receiving tropical storm force winds at your location, I recommend the wind probability product from NHC. The latest probabilities of various locations getting tropical storm force winds, 39 mph or higher, from the 5pm EDT advisory:

Buras, LA 30%
New Orleans 28%
Mobile, AL 37%
Pensacola, FL 30%

Resources for the BP oil disaster
Map of oil spill location from the NOAA Satellite Services Division
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Next update
I'll have an update Saturday morning.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

I thought I saw it but wasn't sure.

Gotta quit doubting myself, thanks guys.

So what does all this mean? Nothing? RIP?
Quoting RedStickCasterette:
I thought I saw it but wasn't sure.

Gotta quit doubting myself, thanks guys.

So what does all this mean? Nothing? RIP?


Well the NHC sent out a vortex which means they've somehow found a closed circulation...but from the data given by the HH I don't see it. This is on the edge of being a remnant wave.
2003. tkeith
Quoting atmosweather:


Well the NHC sent out a vortex which means they've somehow found a closed circulation...but from the data given by the HH I don't see it. This is on the edge of being a remnant wave.
I cant see this having much, if any, impact on the spill area. But I dont blame them for being cautious.
Quoting RedStickCasterette:


Maybe I've just had no sleep yet but why is the NHC still calling for a TS at landfall? Am I hallucinating?

The pressure has been rising indicating a weakening cyclone, no west winds this is one of the worst TD's I have ever looked at, Ike you may not get much relief today from the heat.
2005. P451
Pretty sure this is close to being "the remnants of Bonnie".

1013mb just end it now
Quoting sporteguy03:

The pressure has been rising indicating a weakening cyclone, no west winds this is one of the worst TD's I have ever looked at, Ike you may not get much relief today from the heat.


There's hardly even much atmospheric moisture associated with the system anymore.
Quoting atmosweather:


Well the NHC sent out a vortex which means they've somehow found a closed circulation...but from the data given by the HH I don't see it. This is on the edge of being a remnant wave.


LOL there is a cute little swirl there.

Can say Bonnie has her swirl on.

Lack of sleep? lol.
2009. tkeith
I've enjoyed the video forcasts 03...I hope you keep doin them.
2010. P451
2011. Asta
Quoting tkeith:
I cant see this having much, if any, impact on the spill area. But I dont blame them for being cautious.

Ehem. 2-4 feet of storm surge with oil can have a devastating impact on people living along the coast of SE LA and MS.
Quoting sporteguy03:

The pressure has been rising indicating a weakening cyclone, no west winds this is one of the worst TD's I have ever looked at, Ike you may not get much relief today from the heat.


So no nice breeze in La either.

Oh well, she's been nice to watch and wonder from...
Well it looks like the HH plane is heading back E-ward to sample the southern semicircle...if they don't find any W winds then it's pretty much a broad trough.
Quoting Asta:

Ehem. 2-4 feet of storm surge with oil can have a devastating impact on people living along the coast of SE LA and MS.


Do you think we will get that surge? I had read Alex put some surge/oil into LA. I hope not.
2015. tkeith
Quoting Asta:

Ehem. 2-4 feet of storm surge with oil can have a devestating impact on people living along the coast of SE LA and MS.
you think this will create that much?

I agree, 2-4 ft would push alot into the marsh.

time for bouy check.
Quoting atmosweather:
Well it looks like the HH plane is heading back E-ward to sample the southern semicircle...if they don't find any W winds then it's pretty much a broad trough.


Thanks for all your help tonight/this morning.

So when do we get the info back? Not that it appears to matter at this point. Just curious...
2017. tkeith
Asta look at P451 graphics, it look like the winds are all from the NNE...?
Quoting tkeith:
you think this will create that much?

I agree, 2-4 ft would push alot into the marsh.

time for bouy check.



Don't the tides have something to do with it too? Whether its high or low tide?
2019. breald
I see this morning that Bonnie has fallen apart and never gained strenght.

What is next on the watch list?
Quoting RedStickCasterette:


Do you think we will get that surge? I had read Alex put some surge/oil into LA. I hope not.


Bonnie will not even produce as much storm surge or wave action onto the N-ern Gulf Coast as Alex did.
2021. tkeith
Quoting RedStickCasterette:



Don't the tides have something to do with it too? Whether its high or low tide?
Yes, We've had many days during this spill fiasco with SSE winds 20-30 mph, and it stacks alot of water on the coast.
I just spoke with Mike Siedel from TWC and he can't believe they sent him down here to cover this
Quoting atmosweather:


Bonnie will not even produce as much storm surge or wave action onto the N-ern Gulf Coast as Alex did.


Well that's good news.
They found 3 kt W winds...that's what's left of Bonnie LOL

112100 2610N 08637W 9249 00814 0151 +215 +169 271001 003 013 001 00
112130 2610N 08635W 9251 00813 0151 +215 +171 299002 003 012 001 00
112200 2610N 08634W 9249 00814 0151 +215 +173 287002 002 010 002 00
2026. tkeith
2023. DestinJeff 6:24 AM CDT on July 24, 2010

Noriega Point...JMHO :)
Quoting Hardcoreweather2010:
I just spoke with Mike Siedel from TWC and he can't believe they sent him down here to cover this


So where is TWC? lol. I saw them yesterday in S. Florida with nothing going on.

Almost as funny as Geraldo bending over halfway then getting attacked by a palm tree during Dennis!!!
2028. tkeith
Quoting atmosweather:
They found 3 kt W winds...that's what's left of Bonnie LOL

112100 2610N 08637W 9249 00814 0151 +215 +169 271001 003 013 001 00
112130 2610N 08635W 9251 00813 0151 +215 +171 299002 003 012 001 00
112200 2610N 08634W 9249 00814 0151 +215 +173 287002 002 010 002 00
Atmos you gonna be around for most of the season?
Quoting RedStickCasterette:


So where is TWC? lol. I saw them yesterday in S. Florida with nothing going on.

Almost as funny as Geraldo bending over halfway then getting attacked by a palm tree during Dennis!!!


Mike is down here on Dauphin Island, AL in between 2 cabins close to the west end
Quoting tkeith:
Atmos you gonna be around for most of the season?


Yes during non-working hours...as much as possible.
Good Morning fellow bloggers!

My guess is as long as the swirl is visible on the visible, they'll keep it as a depression.

The rigs have already been evacuated, and there is no up side to having people return yet, even with the tiniest of odds of Bonnie flaring up. It would make them appear foolish. They're in a lose-lose situation, and erring on the side of cautious is the correct call.
Quoting tkeith:
Atmos you gonna be around for most of the season?


I hope he/she is.
2034. P451
2035. IKE
Quoting sporteguy03:

The pressure has been rising indicating a weakening cyclone, no west winds this is one of the worst TD's I have ever looked at, Ike you may not get much relief today from the heat.


Doesn't look like it.


Dedicated to Bonnie...Link
Quoting DestinJeff:
One thing I know for sure:

I'll never trust a pile of ants to make an accurate weather forecast again!


Been looking for the ant hints, but explain why NO tree roaches or red wasps this year? The cold winter?

I know you were joking...
2037. tkeith
Almost as funny as Geraldo bending over halfway then getting attacked by a palm tree during Dennis!!!

I think the scene in Gustave where he was bracing himself against the wind for a report, and he made it look like 100mph winds. Then two guys walked past behind him casually drinkin a beer was as funny :)
Quoting IKE:


Doesn't look like it.


Dedicated to Bonnie...Link


LMAO! have not heard that in ages.
Quoting IKE:


Doesn't look like it.


Dedicated to Bonnie...Link


LMAO its literally calm where Seidel is!!!
2042. IKE
Quoting atmosweather:


LMAO its literally calm where Seidel is!!!


He in New Orleans?
2043. tkeith
Quoting atmosweather:


Yes during non-working hours...as much as possible.
good
Quoting tkeith:
Almost as funny as Geraldo bending over halfway then getting attacked by a palm tree during Dennis!!!

I think the scene in Gustave where he was bracing himself against the wind for a report, and he made it look like 100mph winds. Then two guys walked past behind him casually drinkin a beer was as funny :)


Oh wow I missed that. Perhaps power was out by then. Saw him right before, crying that the levees may give out again.

Dennis for him was a classic. Even O'Reilly put it up on "ridiculous moments" or something similar.
2045. tkeith
Quoting IKE:


He in New Orleans?
If he is he can sleep in...
TWC is talking right now about moving for the next live shot . I am going to head back up to Mobile for now and if Bonnie wakes up I will start streaming my chase cam. Have a great day
Quoting IKE:


He in New Orleans?


Dauphin Island, AL. Zero movement of the plants in the sand.
2048. IKE
End this NHC....can you do it?



Should I run behind Mike for the next live shot and pretend like I can't stand up cause of the strong winds ? LOL
W winds everywhere!!! LOL...it's still by definition a tropical depression...somehow. Although if convection doesn't fire near the center soon (and the stuff right now doesn't count) then it's just a remnant low with a closed circulation.
Quoting Hardcoreweather2010:
Should I run behind Mike for the next live shot and pretend like I can't stand up cause of the strong winds ? LOL


YES! Do that, lol. I'll put the channel on now, lol.
2052. IKE
Quoting atmosweather:


Dauphin Island, AL. Zero movement of the plants in the sand.


Thanks....

...BONNIE COULD DEGENERATE INTO AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER THIS MORNING...
7:00 AM CDT Sat Jul 24
Location: 27.6°N 86.1°W
Max sustained: 30 mph
Moving: WNW at 18 mph
Min pressure: 1013 mb
2053. tkeith
2048. IKE 6:37 AM CDT on July 24, 2010
End this NHC....can you do it?

They're holdin off incase of IWRC :)

Quoting atmosweather:
W winds everywhere!!! LOL...it's still by definition a tropical depression...somehow. Although if convection doesn't fire near the center soon (and the stuff right now doesn't count) then it's just a remnant low with a closed circulation.


I guess the advisory answered that question!...What a horrible excuse for a tropical depression LOL!
2055. IKE
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 8A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032010
700 AM CDT SAT JUL 24 2010

...BONNIE COULD DEGENERATE INTO AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...WARNINGS
WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER THIS MORNING...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.6N 86.1W
ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM ESE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM SSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...50 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...32 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1013 MB...29.91 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* DESTIN FLORIDA TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA...INCLUDING LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER THIS
MORNING.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.1 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH...32
KM/HR. A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE DIRECTION OF MOTION. ON THIS TRACK...THE
CENTER OF BONNIE IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
TONIGHT.

SATELLITE IMAGES AND DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT
BONNIE HAS BECOME LESS ORGANIZED. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE
DECREASED TO ARE NEAR 30 MPH...50 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
STRENGTHENING IS BECOMING LESS LIKELY.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 1013 MB...29.91 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS MAINLY IN SQUALLS COULD REACH
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST LATER TODAY.

RAINFALL...BONNIE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN ALABAMA...SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...AND THE FAR
WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS
OF 3 INCHES.

STORM SURGE...STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1 TO
3 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO THE
RIGHT OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL ON THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA/ROBERTS
Quoting IKE:


Thanks....

...BONNIE COULD DEGENERATE INTO AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER THIS MORNING...
7:00 AM CDT Sat Jul 24
Location: 27.6°N 86.1°W
Max sustained: 30 mph
Moving: WNW at 18 mph
Min pressure: 1013 mb


Bonnie is a degenerate.

Sigh...
Not goi
Quoting RedStickCasterette:


YES! Do that, lol. I'll put the channel on now, lol.

Not going to do that cause I want to be able to sell TWC video footage like I have in the past :)
About 3hours late but...
TropicalDepression Bonnie was^heading for a Houma,Louisiana landfall in ~20hours.
(Straightline^projection using its last 2 positions. Take with HUGE grain of salt)
Copy&paste 26.4N82.5W, 26.4N83.4W, 26.7N84.4W-27.0N85.1W, 27.0N85.1W-29.2N90.6W, BIX, 22.3N74.0W, 18.5N87W, TAM, 28.7N88.4W into the GreatCircleMapper
Shortest red line denotes the movement between last two positions. Below the map shows:
TD.Bonnie had a heading of 295.7degrees (3.2degrees north of WestNorthWest) while traveling
a distance of 48miles(~77kilometres) over 3hours at a speed of 16mph(~26km/h),
and was 368miles(~1,381kilometres) away from the coast in the direction of its heading.

^ A straightline projection does not forecast of what will happen in the future,
See blog1555post1853 for further explanation of what it does and doesn't do.
* DeepwaterHorizon is marked at 28.7N88.4W
Quoting Hardcoreweather2010:
Should I run behind Mike for the next live shot and pretend like I can't stand up cause of the strong winds ? LOL


I'm almost begging ya to...LOL!
Quoting Hardcoreweather2010:
Not goi
Not going to do that cause I want to be able to sell TWC video footage like I have in the past :)


K. Just sounded funny...
Quoting atmosweather:


I'm almost begging ya to...LOL!


Beg him, lol...
2063. P451
The Peruvian government has declared a state of emergency in more than half the country due to cold weather.

Most of the areas affected are in the south, where temperatures regularly drop below zero centigrade at this time of year.

However, this time temperatures have dropped to as low as -24C.

The state of emergency means regional authorities can dip into emergency funds to provide medicine, blankets and shelter to those most affected.
Seasonal deaths

The state of emergency was declared in 16 of Peru's 24 regions.

This week Peru's capital, Lima, recorded its lowest temperatures in 46 years at 8C, and the emergency measures apply to several of its outlying districts.

In Peru's hot and humid Amazon region, temperatures dropped as low as 9C. The jungle region has recorded five cold spells this year.

Hundreds of people - nearly half of them very young children - have died of cold-related diseases, such as pneumonia, in Peru's mountainous south where temperatures can plummet at night to -20C.
Quoting DestinJeff:
Here is some classic Geraldo:


e>
Quoting DestinJeff:
Here is some classic Geraldo:

Quoting DestinJeff:
You must do the Mime in Strong Wind thing in the live shot!


ugh cannot find the Dennis shots with Geraldo.
2066. IKE
You can see the bare-naked swirl now....

Let me see if I can find somebody else to do it :) We will be lucky if we get any waterspouts today. We do need the rain down here cause my grass is brown after only 1 little shower in the entire month of July
Quoting IKE:
You can see the bare-naked swirl now....



Well she is cute! From Walmart to naked swirl, lol.
I think is time to look elsewhere and search for any candidate that may turn into Colin. But as I see things evolving, it may take the next couple of weeks to get Colin as the MJO is not favorable.
Quoting DestinJeff:
Can't find Geraldo in Dennis either.

Then, maybe that's a good thing.


Ya think they were that embarrassed of it? lol it truly was something.
Quoting IKE:
You can see the bare-naked swirl now....


oh Bonnie, put some clothes on
Good Morning. I see the NHC doesn't wanna let Bonnie go. Why can't they just end this?!
2074. P451
12HR WV Loop

Quoting DestinJeff:
Can't find Geraldo in Dennis either.

Then, maybe that's a good thing.


Hmm maybe I should make it a quest to find it!
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
Good Morning. I see the NHC doesn't wanna let Bonnie go. Why can't they just end this?!


They will likely be at 11AM...

...BONNIE COULD DEGENERATE INTO AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER THIS MORNING...
Quoting IKE:
You can see the bare-naked swirl now....


It would be interesting if she were to blow convection and organize it, as well as drop pressures and up those winds, but that's highly improbable.
2079. tkeith
2076. KEEPEROFTHEGATE 6:50 AM CDT on July 24, 2010

is that Plymoth site a pay site Keeper?

could you link it for me?
Quoting P451:
12HR WV Loop



So, my fiance/hubby/whatever should be getting whacked at work right now, or starting to, by Bonnie's naked swirl in Pascagoula?

I just warned him to look out, lol.
Quoting Hardcoreweather2010:


Yeah!!!
Americans have a new weapon for the destruction of tropical cyclones!!!
Link
Quoting tkeith:
2076. KEEPEROFTHEGATE 6:50 AM CDT on July 24, 2010

is that Plymoth site a pay site Keeper?

could you link it for me?


Link
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

It would be interesting if she were to blow convection and organize it, as well as drop pressures and up those winds, but that's highly improbable.


Not with 30 knots of confluent upper flow and virtually no moisture left.
Quoting tkeith:
2076. KEEPEROFTHEGATE 6:50 AM CDT on July 24, 2010

is that Plymoth site a pay site Keeper?

could you link it for me?


Link
2085. tkeith
Quoting BadHurricane:


Yeah!!!
Americans have a new weapon for the destruction of tropical cyclones!!!
Link
I hope CB dont see that...it will really mess up his tunnel theory up...
2086. IKE
Cat .0000000001.......

i posted up link keith but to navagate the site it took me also 2 yrs to figure it out good luck
2088. tkeith
Thanks Keeper I saved it :)
Quoting tkeith:
I hope CB dont see that...it will really mess up his tunnel theory up...


Who was that with the tunnel theory years ago? I haven't seen it in ages...
Quoting IKE:
Cat .0000000001.......

cat no mouse1 i think
2091. tkeith
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
i posted up link keith but to navagate the site it took me also 2 yrs to figure it out good luck
I'll probably be WU mailin ya for tips :)
2092. IKE
Quoting IKE:
Cat .0000000001.......



ULL def. Bonnie - 8th Rd TKO.
2095. tkeith
Quoting RedStickCasterette:


Who was that with the tunnel theory years ago? I haven't seen it in ages...
CycloneBuster...he's still around. I dont think he posts in Doc's blog anymore, but I've seen him on other blogs here.
I'd watch the Caribbean area carefully. Though I concur with the NHC about a tropical cyclone not developing in the next 48 hours, a westward moving tropical wave near the Leeward Islands will enter the basin sometime today, generating an even greater area of convection.

The 06z GFS forecasts the upper-level flow to begin to improve in around 54 hours as the upper low to the north moves into the western Gulf of Mexico. At this juncture, the wave should be in the western Caribbean Sea. I think it's possible we'll eventually see something from this, even though it's not much now.
Quoting IKE:


That's what 30-40 knots can do to ya!
The next 2 Live shots from Mike Siedel will be recorded from Dauphin Island, AL
2101. IKE
Quoting DestinJeff:
Back to Page 1 of the 2010 script:

Look at this one. This one may be the one to watch as the first real start of the CV season!


I've seen that exact statement about 1,000 times this season.


LMAO...Mike Seidel....no wind at Dauphin Island,AL.!!!!!!!!! Sea oats dead still.
2103. tkeith
Quoting Hardcoreweather2010:
The next 2 Live shots from Mike Siedel will be recorded from Dauphin Island, AL
Take your leaf blower...
Quoting DestinJeff:


Convection starting to really POP!!!!!!


She looks to be popping up again, a little, lol.

Persistent...
2105. Asta
Quoting StonedCrab:
Good Morning fellow bloggers!

My guess is as long as the swirl is visible on the visible, they'll keep it as a depression.

The rigs have already been evacuated, and there is no up side to having people return yet, even with the tiniest of odds of Bonnie flaring up. It would make them appear foolish. They're in a lose-lose situation, and erring on the side of cautious is the correct call.

I agree.
2106. Asta
Quoting RedStickCasterette:


Do you think we will get that surge? I had read Alex put some surge/oil into LA. I hope not.

Hope is not an effective plan.
TropicalDepression Bonnie was^heading for a NewOrleans,Louisiana landfall in ~10hours.
(Straightline^projection using its last 2 positions. Take with HUGE grain of salt)
Copy&paste 26.4N83.4W, 26.7N84.4W, 27.0N85.1W-27.6N86.1W, 27.6N86.1W-29.7N89.7W, BIX, 22.3N74.0W, 18.5N87W, TAM, 28.7N88.4W into the GreatCircleMapper
Shortest red line denotes the movement between last two positions. Below the map shows:
TD.Bonnie had a heading of 304.1degrees (10.9degrees west of NorthWest) while traveling
a distance of 74miles(~119kilometres) over 3hours at a speed of ~25mph(~40km/h),
and was 262miles(~421kilometres) away from the coast in the direction of its heading.

^ A straightline projection does not forecast of what will happen in the future,
See blog1555post1853 for further explanation of what it does and doesn't do.
* DeepwaterHorizon is marked at 28.7N88.4W
And with that I need a nap LOL!

Have a good morning everyone...I'll be back this afternoon to watch the naked girl...oops I mean cyclone ;)
Quoting atmosweather:
And with that I need a nap LOL!

Have a good morning everyone...I'll be back this afternoon to watch the naked girl...oops I mean cyclone ;)


Haha and thanks for your "teaching"!
Quoting Asta:

Hope is not an effective plan.


Did I say it was?
Quoting IKE:


I've seen that exact statement about 1,000 times this season.


LMAO...Mike Seidel....no wind at Dauphin Island,AL.!!!!!!!!! Sea oats dead still.
well if ya put some fans on the beach he could stand in front of them to make it look that way then we need a garden hose to spray him down to look like rain the fan will give it that driving rain look then you need a moonshine jug to blow in to give it that howling wind sound come on they can do this its easy
If Bonnie would have stayed on the southern solution, we would still have a Tropical STorm, the CIMMS shear map explains it all. 10-20 knots south of where Bonnie is now. She went too far north.
Quoting reedzone:
If Bonnie would have stayed on the southern solution, we would still have a Tropical STorm, the CIMMS shear map explains it all. 10-20 knots south of where Bonnie is now. She went too far north.


Well good thing she did.

Although a nice breeze would have been nice...
2114. tkeith
Quoting Asta:

Hope is not an effective plan.


New Orleans, Louisiana (Airport)
Updated: 15 min 55 sec ago
84 °F
Overcast
Humidity: 82%
Dew Point: 78 °F
Wind: 5 mph from the NNW

Pressure: 30.04 in (Rising)

2117. IKE
If.... was about all there was with Bonnie. That should take care of July in the Atlantic basin. May see another invest, but nothing significant.

The excuse, it's early in the season....won't apply much longer.
2118. IKE
Quoting DestinJeff:
If 2010 had a sound effect, it would have to be this one:




LOL!
Quoting DestinJeff:
If 2010 had a sound effect, it would have to be this one:



LoL
Quoting IKE:
If.... was about all there was with Bonnie. That should take care of July in the Atlantic basin. May see another invest, but nothing significant.

The excuse, it's early in the season....won't apply much longer.


So what you mean, Ike?
Quoting IKE:
If.... was about all there was with Bonnie. That should take care of July in the Atlantic basin. May see another invest, but nothing significant.

The excuse, it's early in the season....won't apply much longer.


Sorry Ike, but this is still going to be an active season. Remember 2004? started in early August.
2123. IKE
Quoting RedStickCasterette:


So what you mean, Ike?


Last week of July looks like it will be...little to nothing in the Atlantic.
Just wait, things will ramp up, conditions are ripe for a active season. Still holding on to 15-18 named systems by December.
Quoting IKE:


Last week of July looks like it will be...little to nothing in the Atlantic.


Now that you said that I am sure that we will have 99L before the end of the day :)
Quoting IKE:


Last week of July looks like it will be...little to nothing in the Atlantic.


I hope so, as far as land-falling.
Quoting tkeith:
Take your leaf blower...


leaf blower
2128. IKE
Quoting Hardcoreweather2010:


Now that you said that I am sure that we will have 99L before the end of the day :)


LOL...probably.

Bonnie(:
Morning everybody.

Quoting tkeith:
CycloneBuster...he's still around. I dont think he posts in Doc's blog anymore, but I've seen him on other blogs here.
He still keeps his own blog going also. Took a peep in there the other day. Had some halfway decent wx graphics.
Quoting reedzone:
Just wait, things will ramp up, conditions are ripe for a active season. Still holding on to 15-18 named systems by December.


How so you know things will ramp up?
We had Alex and Bonnie.. We aren't really below average, 2009 at this time had nothing.
2134. tkeith
Quoting DestinJeff:
I think we'll see around 15 storms by September 2011.
I'd agree with ya Jeff...but my "guesscasting" skills just aint what they used to be...
Quoting BahaHurican:
Morning everybody.

He still keeps his own blog going also. Took a peep in there the other day. Had some halfway decent wx graphics.

Hi Baha.
Quoting reedzone:
We had Alex and Bonnie.. We aren't really below average, 2009 at this time had nothing.

Neither did 2004.
2137. IKE
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SAT JUL 24 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION BONNIE LOCATED ABOUT 215 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE
MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

A LARGE BUT DISORGANIZED AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED
OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE
INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW. DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM IS
NOT ANTICIPATED...AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR ZERO...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/AVILA

Quoting reedzone:
We had Alex and Bonnie.. We aren't really below average, 2009 ythis time had nothing.


Exactly but why above average?

Forget all they hype and casting.

If its below, then we are bored not having anything to follow, if its above, well, some of us may have trouble.

I hope for the best...period.
2141. IKE
Quoting DestinJeff:
Bob Barker-casting for Bonnie:




Bumbling Bonnie.
Quoting DestinJeff:
Bob Barker-casting for Bonnie:



LOL
Quoting RedStickCasterette:


How so you know things will ramp up?


Look how Alex evolved? Became a category 2 storm with a pressure of a category 3-4 storm. Pressures are lower then normal in the Atlantic, plus there is alot of heat. The High pressure is setting up to be a player in the long term, once the Cape Verde systems get going, and they will as usual with every Hurricane Season. Wind shear should start to decrease as La-Nina gets stronger and also, with La-Ninas, I don't think there ever was a season with a below average of named storms. We will definitely get over 10 storms. I'm thinking about maybe one more this month, 5 in August, 7 in September, 3 in October, and maybe 1-2 in November and can't rule out a December storm. La-Ninas tend to give us late storms.
2145. tkeith
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION BONNIE LOCATED ABOUT 215 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE
MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

Landfall in 11.9hrs :)
Quoting IKE:
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SAT JUL 24 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION BONNIE LOCATED ABOUT 215 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE
MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

A LARGE BUT DISORGANIZED AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED
OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE
INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW. DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM IS
NOT ANTICIPATED...AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR ZERO...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/AVILA



Near 0%???

Ha here we go, lol.

Waiting...
But why above average?

I knew I should have cut and pasted StormW's synopsis from yesterday's blog...
We are actually above average compared to 1998, Bonnie formed in August that year..

1 Tropical Storm ALEX 27 JUL- 2 AUG 45 1002 -
2 Hurricane BONNIE 19-31 AUG 100 954 3
I've never seen a La Nina that was below 10 storms...
2151. IKE
Mike Seidel..."I think it's time to cue up the fat lady."

RIP Bonnie. It's over.
2001, Barry formed in August as well.. They had 15 storms, a La Nina year as well

1 Tropical Storm ALLISON 5-19 JUN 50 1000 -
2 Tropical Storm BARRY 2- 8 AUG 60 990 -
2153. IKE
It won't wind up below average in 2010. But I will admit, I was expecting more to this point. I'm not complaining though. Sunny weekends are nicer.

Gotta mow my front yard...L8R.......
Quoting BahaHurican:
But why above average?

I knew I should have cut and pasted StormW's synopsis from yesterday's blog...


Ugh, never mind. I was asking REED his thoughts, not Storms's.

Quoting IKE:
It won't wind up below average in 2010. But I will admit, I was expecting more to this point. I'm not complaining though. Sunny weekends are nicer.

Gotta mow my front yard...L8R.......


You prediction of 13 named storms is a good one, especially since we haven't seen much yet. Hold on to it.
Every one enjoy your day today i am going snorkling at caye caulker
What is going on with all the ULL. I dont remember a time when there seemed to be so many in the tropics interacting with each other. Is it the time of year (before CV starts)?


Or is this a greater scale type of event happening.... Like Dr. Masters said in one of his global warming blogs. Yes the earth may be heating up and that would mean higher temps all around the world and in the oceans.... BUT this will create more sheer and (i dont remember if he said this) maybe more SAL?


OH and Good morning... (pistons are firing today sorry in advance)
Quoting reedzone:
I've never seen a La Nina that was below 10 storms...


I believe what you are saying. I just wanted to hear it from you!
Quoting DestinJeff:


Is he talking about Al?

O_o Seeing that sketch is disturbing.
2163. WxLogic
Good morning...
Quoting earthlydragonfly:
What is going on with all the ULL. I dont remember a time when there seemed to be so many in the tropics interacting with each other. Is it the time of year (before CV starts)?


Or is this a greater scale type of event happening.... Like Dr. Masters said in one of his global warming blogs. Yes the earth may be heating up and that would mean higher temps all around the world and in the oceans.... BUT this will create more sheer and (i dont remember if he said this) maybe more SAL?


OH and Good morning... (pistons are firing today sorry in advance)


That ULL was amazing to watch, for me. Never thought anything would take down the Walmart wave.
Quoting RedStickCasterette:


I believe what you are saying. I just wanted to hear it from you!


np, I try to use facts and stuff to back up my statements.
2166. FLdewey
Quoting DestinJeff:
Hey Dewey. Thanks for sending your hellacious weather up this way! Jerk.


Ya... looks like a scene from White Squall up there.
2167. tkeith
mornin dewey -_-

where's yer tie?
Quoting RedStickCasterette:


That ULL was amazing to watch, for me. Never thought anything would take down the Walmart wave.


you think the walmart wave was Bonnie? or the wave behind it?
2169. kingy
although the storm amounted to minimal problems what about the oil splurge that will come with the waves ?
Quoting reedzone:


np, I try to use facts and stuff to back up my statements.


I know that, as a lurker for many years, so just wanted to see if you could say why, how, etc.

You have come a long way...not that I know anything lol. I just read. Now I talk. LOL.
2172. breald
Quoting RedStickCasterette:


How so you know things will ramp up?


Because the peak of the season does not start until Aug thru Sept. Things will ramp up.
Quoting earthlydragonfly:


you think the walmart wave was Bonnie? or the wave behind it?


I had been watching the Walmart smiley since you or someone posted it one night. Saved the pix on my laptop that is toast. Anyway, watched her all the way. Halfway, she looked like a troll, it was freaky.
2174. FLdewey
Quoting tkeith:
mornin dewey -_-

where's yer tie?


Situations don't currently warrant such drastic counter measures... but you never know. ;-)

Just got a heck of a downpour here... smelled like Kmart Vinyl?
2175. tkeith
Quoting kingy:
although the storm amounted to minimal problems what about the oil splurge that will come with the waves ?

New Orleans, Louisiana (Airport)
Updated: 44 min 58 sec ago
84 °F
Overcast
Humidity: 82%
Dew Point: 78 °F
Wind: 5 mph from the NNW

Pressure: 30.04 in (Rising)
Heat Index: 95 °F

if that wind direction stays like it is, it would help

Are models predicting any development?
Quoting breald:


Because the peak of the season does not start until Aug thru Sept. Things will ramp up.


Oh I believe that 100%. If it doesn't them so be it.
ULLs in the left half of the Atlantic basin and dry air between the Lessor Antilles & Africa. I guess this is not that all unusual for July. Keep in mind that June & July are pretty dead months for tropical development.

I do expect a busy Aug, Sep, & Oct and 15 or more named storms this season. I think 20 named storms at this point would be a big reach.
18z


00z


06z


all show cape verde hurricane forming first week of august. This far out it is not good for track but it the consistency increases the likelihood that cyclogenesis may occur by the cape verde islands the first week of august
Quoting RedStickCasterette:


I had been watching the Walmart smiley since you or someone posted it one night. Saved the pix on my laptop that is toast. Anyway, watched her all the way. Halfway, she looked like a troll, it was freaky.
Heck I never connected it.. I just pop in and out.. It could have been but I dont know for sure.


It's headed for the Oil Rig! Hopefully Tony Hayward is on his yact vacationing near it :)

Quoting earthlydragonfly:
Heck I never connected it.. I just pop in and out.. It could have been but I dont know for sure.




Im telling you that was her. I saved the progressive pix on my other laptop. If I can save the harddrive, I will show you. I thought it was so cool, so I followed her. Later she looked like a troll with a sword. Like she had a battle to attend.

Haha sounds nuts, but I have the pix, when I can get to them. But yeah think you started it...
Quoting Hardcoreweather2010:
It's headed for the Oil Rig! Hopefully Tony Hayward is on his yact vacationing near it :)



LOL funny but he wouldnt want to get any of that dark stuff on his hull...
Quoting RedStickCasterette:


Im telling you that was her. I saved the progressive pix on my other laptop. If I can save the harddrive, I will show you. I thought it was so cool, so I followed her. Later she looked like a troll with a sword. Like she had a battle to attend.

Haha sounds nuts, but I have the pix, when I can get to them. But yeah think you started it...


Sure blame me... LOL
Quoting earthlydragonfly:


Sure blame me... LOL


Haha the smiley looked so neat on the red ESL site.
Quoting FLdewey:
Mesoanalysis shows some serious activity down in das Goolf de Mexican


get it right he's not mexican hes the big cuban
2189. tkeith
Quoting FLdewey:
Mesoanalysis shows some serious activity down in das Goolf de Mexican





**The image above does not reflect the views of ANY reputable agency... there is no need panic **
when are gonna they send the HH's in dewey?
Quoting Hardcoreweather2010:
It's headed for the Oil Rig! Hopefully Tony Hayward is on his yact vacationing near it :)



From the looks of it it may actually go to the east of the oil spill.. which would be a best case scenario. Looks to me it may be an open wave at landfall, plus it'll push the oil away from the coast (but not that far, it's a 1013 low). Everyone wins!
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
get it right he's not mexican hes the big cuban



So Gulf de Cuban??
2192. tkeith
Quoting HurricaneSwirl:


From the looks of it it may actually go to the east of the oil spill.. which would be a best case scenario. Looks to me it may be an open wave at landfall, plus it'll push the oil away from the coast (but not that far, it's a 1013 low). Everyone wins!
looks that way to me too.
2193. FLdewey
Soccer registration calls for me too... stay safe and if things get serious don't hesitate to get below ground.

Do y'all have basements in LA? We just have pools. :-(
Quoting HurricaneSwirl:


From the looks of it it may actually go to the east of the oil spill.. which would be a best case scenario. Looks to me it may be an open wave at landfall, plus it'll push the oil away from the coast (but not that far, it's a 1013 low). Everyone wins!


The only problem I see is the fact that the work had to stop to begin with... From what the local news said it will take at least a week for them to get all the pieces back in place just to get back where they where before the evac. Everyone here knows what can happen in a week. especially since IMO tropical formations tend to follow each other... Kind of like the first one creates a wake for the other...
2195. tkeith
Do y'all have basements in LA?

we call em coffer dams...
Quoting earthlydragonfly:
Heck I never connected it.. I just pop in and out.. It could have been but I dont know for sure.




That was the wave that became Bonnie..
Quoting Twinkster:
18z


00z


06z


all show cape verde hurricane forming first week of august. This far out it is not good for track but it the consistency increases the likelihood that cyclogenesis may occur by the cape verde islands the first week of august


That is completely possible and needs to be watched.
2199. KYDan
She does not want to go away quietly.

Quoting CybrTeddy:


That was the wave that became Bonnie..


Wow that smile was a sign after all.. Maybe it was the tropics smiling at us because it knew it was messing with us and creating all the hub-bub...
bonnie on visible clearly shows naked swirl...last two frames
2203. tkeith
Quoting StormW:
Nice visible of naked Bonnie

VISIBLE LOOP
That is a good view...
Quoting StormW:
Nice visible of naked Bonnie

VISIBLE LOOP


Sir that was off topic and you have been reported..

LOL

Morning Senior Chief Caster!
Quoting FLdewey:
Mesoanalysis shows some serious activity down in das Goolf de Cooba.





**The image above does not reflect the views of ANY reputable agency... there is no need panic **

I wonder if that will soak up the oil? how about putting him down the oil well and see if he can plug it cause BP ain't done it yet.
Quoting KYDan:
She does not want to go away quietly.


typical woman... lol... jks
NEW BLOG
Quoting IKE:


I've seen that exact statement about 1,000 times this season.


then you haven't spent enough time here, its been said easily 10,000 times this month.
NEW BLOG