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Bonnie makes landfall in South Florida

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:05 PM GMT on July 23, 2010

Tropical Storm Bonnie is making landfall in South Florida south of Miami as a minimal tropical storm with 40 mph winds. Radar-estimated rainfall from the Miami radar shows that Bonnie is a relatively dry storm--maximum rainfall amounts from the storm have been just 2 - 3 inches over the waters to the east of Miami. Water vapor satellite loops show that Bonnie is embedded in a large area of dry air, thanks to an upper level low to the west over the Gulf of Mexico. Over the past twelve hours, Bonnie has sped up, and this has brought the storm closer to the upper level low. The upper level low is now bringing high levels of wind shear--about 20 knots--to the tropical storm. Satellite images of Bonnie show that the storm is being stretched into an oval shape by the strong steering flow, and this distortion is inhibiting intensification. Bonnie is a small storm, and is only affecting a limited area of South Florida with strong winds and heavy rain. Surface observations in the Bahamas and South Florida showed a number of stations with winds in the 30 - 46 mph range this morning, including Fowey Rocks, which had sustatined winds of 46 mph, gusting to 53 mph, at 10:45 am EDT.


Figure 1. Radar image of Bonnie at landfall from the Miami radar.

Track Forecast for Bonnie
Bonnie has sped up more than the models expected, but they are in pretty good agreement about a continued track to the west-northwest to northwest with a landfall between Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle. The latest set of model runs from 2am EDT (6Z) are very similar to the two previous sets of runs, and this degree of consistency gives me confidence that Bonnie will stay within the cone of uncertainty depicted on the track forecast images. The projected track will take Bonnie over the oil spill region, and the storm's strong east to southeasterly winds will begin to affect the oil slick on Saturday morning. These winds, coupled with a storm surge of 2 - 4 feet, will result in a substantial area of the Louisiana marshlands getting oiled. The latest oil trajectory forecasts from NOAA (Figure 2) predict potential oil impacts along a 150-mile stretch of Louisiana coast on Sunday. Given Bonnie's rapid forward speed, small size, and expected landfall intensity of 50 mph or less, oil impacts on the Louisiana coast will be similar to or less than what was experienced during Hurricane Alex in June. That storm brought a storm surge of 2 - 4 feet and sustained winds of 20 - 30 mph that lasted for several days.


Figure 2. Oil Trajectory forecast for Sunday for the Deepwater Horizon oil spill. Image credit: NOAA.

Intensity Forecast for Bonnie
The primary detriment to development of Bonnie will be the presence of the large upper-level low to its west. If the low remains in its present location, relative to Bonnie, it will bring high wind shear of about 20 knots to the storm. This will allow for only slow intensification, and Bonnie is unlikely to intensify to more than a 50 mph tropical storm. This is the solution of the major global models such as the GFDL, HWRF, GFS, ECMWF, and NOGAPS. However, if the upper-level low weakens or pulls away from Bonnie, less shear and dry air will affect the storm, potentially allowing Bonnie to intensify to a strong tropical storm with 60 - 65 mph winds. The more statistically based intensity models--SHIPS and LGEM--foresee this sort of scenario. I'll go with the lower intensity scenario, since Bonnie is such a small storm and will be more sensitive than usual to hostile wind shear and dry air. I give Bonnie a 10% chance of becoming a hurricane. NHC is putting the odds of Bonnie being a hurricane at 8 pm Saturday at 9% (11am advisory.)

If you are wondering about the specific probabilities of receiving tropical storm force winds at your location, I recommend the wind probability product from NHC. The latest probabilities of various locations getting tropical storm force winds, 39 mph or higher, from the 11am EDT advisory :

Buras, LA 41%
New Orleans 32%
Mobile, AL 37%
Pensacola, FL 31%

Moscow records its hottest temperature in history
The temperature in Moscow, Russia reached 37°C (98.6°F) today, the hottest temperature ever recorded in the city. According to Wikipedia, Moscow's previous highest temperature ever recorded was 36.8°C (98.2°F) in August 1920. With the wunderground.com forecast for Moscow calling for continued temperatures in the mid to upper nineties for the next week, Moscow should easily be able break its record for warmest July since record keeping began in 1879.

Resources for the BP oil disaster
Map of oil spill location from the NOAA Satellite Services Division
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Next update
I'll have an update this afternoon.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

1001. RickWPB
I think from Patrap's post 936 and this one:

Link

That Bonnie is becoming an open wave.
Quoting Tazmanian:




in fac that wave down there is looking better then are TS is may see a yellow on it tonight
Take a gander at my blog, the area isn't going to become anything, at least for the time being.
1003. Patrap
..caught in a Bad Invest.



See you later guys I'll check back in a while to see what Bonnie is doing out over the water, if anything.
1005. OSMS
Quoting Tropicaddict:


I agree. I'm in Pass Christian...it's HOT!!


Ocean Springs
1006. Patrap
Uptown, New Orleans, Louisiana (PWS)
Updated: 45 sec ago
Scattered Clouds

92.3 °F

Scattered Clouds

Humidity: 59%

Dew Point: 76 °F

Wind: 1.1 mph from the NNE

Wind Gust: 4.0 mph

Pressure: 30.09 in (Steady)

Heat Index: 105 °F

Visibility: 10.0 miles
UV: 12 out of 16
Pollen: 2.50 out of 12
Pollen Forecast new!
Clouds:
Scattered Clouds 3000 ft
Scattered Clouds 25000 ft
(Above Ground Level)

Elevation: 20 ft
1007. Patrap
ooofh,,

itsa HOTSUI,,!
Quoting IKE:




ike, remember the last time that you had posted something like this? it never came to pass, lol/
i was this looking at the IR and it looks like are TS dos not have a spin too in in fac it looks like are spin that are TS had is runing a way in the gulf of Mx and heading too TX or MX
Quoting Baybuddy:


Not me! I had calluses on my hand from that rollerball. I preferred Galaga tho'.


Defender/Stargate ruled!
Quoting Hardcoreweather2010:


Winds sustained over 40mph were reported just check out the Local Storm reports


we were talking about current conditions.

i see none anywhere on the SFlorida Pennisula
of sustained Tropical Storm force strength
right now.


Provide a link or something [sustained40 ]
if you see something i dont.
Orlando here....enjoying our first rains from Bonnie, even a breeze and a light chop on the lake. She may be the best kind of storm for us....a rainmaker and hopefully little else.
1014. Patrap
Quoting Patrap:
Uptown, New Orleans, Louisiana (PWS)
Updated: 45 sec ago
Scattered Clouds

92.3 °F

Scattered Clouds

Humidity: 59%

Dew Point: 76 °F

Wind: 1.1 mph from the NNE

Wind Gust: 4.0 mph

Pressure: 30.09 in (Steady)

Heat Index: 105 °F

Visibility: 10.0 miles
UV: 12 out of 16
Pollen: 2.50 out of 12
Pollen Forecast new!
Clouds:
Scattered Clouds 3000 ft
Scattered Clouds 25000 ft
(Above Ground Level)

Elevation: 20 ft


I take that and raise you.

Williamsburg, Virginia (Airport)
Updated: 2:40 PM EDT on July 23, 2010

100 °F
Clear
Humidity: 39%
Dew Point: 72 °F
Wind: 5 mph from the WSW

Pressure: 30.01 in (Steady)
Heat Index: 109 °F
Visibility: 10.0 miles
UV: 10 out of 16
Pollen: 4.40 out of 12
Pollen Forecast new!
Clouds:
Clear -
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 49 ft
1016. tkeith
1009. Tazmanian 1:51 PM CDT on July 23, 2010

no blog crashing today :)

(Ima crashcaster)
I would like to correct my earlier post. Looking at radar again there is a slight circulation but it is very weak. All the convection over tampa and the surrounding area no longer seems to be influenced by the very weak llc. There is still a chance that it could get back to ts strength but there is still shear due to the ULL to its west and it is moving way to fast. the northern gulf coast will in my opinion only get some squalls and gusty winds I don't see it being an organized tropical system. However, stranger things have happened
TO CENTRAL AND EASTREN GULF RESIDENTS,

I have you in my prayers, bonnie looks to be kept in check by the ULL.

However this certainly wont be the last storm in the gulf this year


TO FELLOW FLORIDA BLOGGERS.


Ladies and Gentlemen.

BONNIE WAS A JOKE.

It only Rained for 30 minutes.

ITS A GREAT WAKE UP CALL, IT REMINDED PEOPLE THAT HAVE ALREADY FORGOTTEN HOW PRONE FLORIDA IS TO TROPICAL CYCLONE. HOPEFULLY PEOPLE DONT THINK ALL TROPICAL SYSTEMS ARE LIKE THIS, BECAUSE WHAT WILL HAPPEN TO THEM WHEN THE BIG
ONE HITS

SO TREAT THIS AS A DRILL, AND REMEBER AUGUST AND SEPTEMBER IS WHEN MOST CYCLONES HIT FLORIDA AND CAPE VERDE HURRICANES ARE DANGEROUS
i think are spin is runing a way

1020. centex
Quoting Tazmanian:
i was this looking at the IR and it looks like are TS dos not have a spin too in in fac it looks like are spin that are TS had is runing a way in the gulf of Mx and heading too TX or MX
The ULL still has it and flinging it into LA/MS. Good news because will stay weak. The ULL will be in central texas on Sunday and Bonnie LA/MS.
1021. Patrap
itsa da Humidity..

Humidity: 59%

Dew Point: 76 °F

Quoting Patrap:
itsa da Humidity..

Humidity: 59%

Dew Point: 76 °F



59% humidity...pffft...that's nothing.
i seeea downgrande comeing at the next update i this done see a spin too are TS
Quoting Tazmanian:
i was this looking at the IR and it looks like are TS dos not have a spin too in in fac it looks like are spin that are TS had is runing a way in the gulf of Mx and heading too TX or MX

Link
Quoting PensacolaDoug:


Defender/Stargate ruled!


my favorite arcade game growing up as a kid.
Stargate/Defender ruled!!!

i think this tells about how old we are! [laughs]
1027. tkeith
1025. StonedCrab 1:56 PM CDT on July 23, 2010

load up another bowl Crab...lol
This wave near PR is looking more interesting this afternoon. This may very be something to watch over the next few days.
Bonnie is indeed becoming an open wave. I would not be surprised to see the last advisory issued at 5..
1030. Mia337
Hey could anyone tell me. Is it safe to say, that SWLA is basicall in the clear of any near landfall conditions. The models are pretty far enough east of us right.
Quoting Patrap:


What was the Last Hurricane to strike Fla and when...?


500$ Lagniappe


Hurricane Wilma 2005.
Tropical Storm Faye 2008 [65mph]
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


I take that and raise you.

Williamsburg, Virginia (Airport)
Updated: 2:40 PM EDT on July 23, 2010

100 °F
Clear
Humidity: 39%
Dew Point: 72 °F
Wind: 5 mph from the WSW

Pressure: 30.01 in (Steady)
Heat Index: 109 °F
Visibility: 10.0 miles
UV: 10 out of 16
Pollen: 4.40 out of 12
Pollen Forecast new!
Clouds:
Clear -
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 49 ft


Same deal here...Hot and HUMID!

Patricks Backyard Station, Muncie, Indiana (PWS)
Updated: 2 sec ago
Humidity: 62%
Dew Point: 77 °F
Wind: 5.0 mphfrom the West
Wind Gust: 17.0 mph
Pressure: 29.84 in (Falling)
Heat Index: 106 °F
Visibility: 10.0 miles
UV: 10 out of 16
Pollen: 6.10 out of 12
Pollen Forecast new!
Clouds: Few 4400 ft
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 935 ft

Levi... Want a houseguest, till say... November?
1033. Relix
It's kinda sad Bonnie couldn't survive Florida which is basically plain XD
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Take a gander at my blog, the area isn't going to become anything, at least for the time being.

Do you think Bonnie has dissipated like the other bloggers are saying?
Ike...can you explain the steering currents to me, I dont know how to read them.
BONNIE DOWNGRADED TO TD!!!
Quoting Jeff9641:
This wave near PR is looking more interesting this afternoon. This may very be something to watch over the next few days.
There isn't any tropical wave over Puerto Rico. Surface analysis doesn't even recognize the feature. The only think that you could classify it as is a trough of low pressure, and it is a weak one at that.
1038. Patrap
1039. Patrap
No surprize dere..
Quoting Patrap:


What was the Last Hurricane to strike Fla and when...?


500$ Lagniappe


Last One to Strike South Florida was

WILMA OCTOBER Around 24/27 2005
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

Do you think Bonnie has dissipated like the other bloggers are saying?
No, I do think it is a tropical depression, not a tropical storm at this point.
1043. CJ5
It appears the LLC (looking at RBG) is exposed as it just came off the coast. It has tight circulation at the center still. If there is anything to feed on and conditions improve it could still spin back up.
1044. Hhunter
Link

check out the puerto rico radar loop. Seems to be a little center of circulation on radar.....
Quoting Patrap:


What was the Last Hurricane to strike Fla and when...?


500$ Lagniappe


Dennis 2005 maybe?
Has bonnie emerged over open gulf waters yet?
1047. Relix
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
There isn't any tropical wave over Puerto Rico. Surface analysis doesn't even recognize the feature. The only think that you could classify it as is a trough of low pressure, and it is a weak one at that.


Not exactly right. The NWS in SJ is calling it a tropical wave.
Quoting stillwaiting:
BONNIE DOWNGRADED TO TD!!!
FTP ATCF files are not official information. Bonnie is still a tropical storm.
hello everyone,

I went home for lunch break and my area must have received some gusty winds. One of my neighbors had a tall palm tree broke in half and many limbs were down. In my backyard I had a large tree limb that had broken off a tree and on ground.

Plus we have those large city provided green on wheel trash cans..the big ones...and this morning was trash pickup.. they were all blown over like dominos in our neighborhood.


So mush have had a few hard gusts..

and I had little over 1" of rain.. so not as much rain as we had hoped for... I am sure other areas , like out here in Weston, got more rain.


Now it looks like it is bringing some rainfall to the central west coast of Florida which is good.....
Quoting louisianaweatherguy:
Has bonnie emerged over open gulf waters yet?


no based on radar the weak circulation is still over florida
1052. Levi32
Bonnie running on one exhaust pipe to the northwest. One exhaust pipe isn't enough for a tropical cyclone. You want outflow all around the storm and Bonnie isn't getting that. The flow around the system is pretty much unidirectional.
Quoting CJ5:
It appears the LLC (looking at RBG) is exposed as it just came off the coast. It has tight circulation at the center still. If there is anything to feed on and conditions improve it could still spin back up.


this is what i am expecting, but only a very minimal amount of re-strengthening.
Bonnie's a TD now
I just heard our first rumble of thunder here, went out to close the sunroof on the car. Need the rain to cool things off - finally!
1056. Patrap
Quoting 69Viking:


Dennis 2005 maybe?



oooh,,no.

"500 debit"

Wilma, Oct 05
Yea, what is going on near Haiti? There is something popping up on the 850mb vort and 500mb vort (well, yellow) and just green on the 700 vort. There's also a wind field popping up within that area on Upper Divergence and Lower convergence. What all does that mean?
patrap, remember, the majors are coming, HECK, even 09 had a few majors to deal with, though non of them made landfall; however, for this year, wishful thinking. lets continue to enjoy the peace while we have it.
1059. RJT185
Quoting Relix:


Not exactly right. The NWS in SJ is calling it a tropical wave.


As long as its not Susan Soltero!
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Bonnie is indeed becoming an open wave. I would not be surprised to see the last advisory issued at 5..
0Z ECMWF has it as an open wave in lake charles at 72 hrs from initalazation.
Quoting Twinkster:


no based on radar the weak circulation is still over florida


UNISYS View:


South Florida Radar:

Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
No, I do think it is a tropical depression, not a tropical storm at this point.

Yeah...A TD it is...
TD @5pm
AL, 03, 2010072318, , BEST, 0, 258N, 811W, 30, 1008, TD
TropicalStorm Bonnie was^heading toward entering the Gulf at Naples,Florida in ~1hour.
(Straightline^projection using its last 2 positions. Take with HUGE grain of salt)
Copy&paste 24.1N78.6W, 24.7N79.8W, 25.4N80.3W-25.8N81.1W, 25.8N81.1W-26.1N81.7W, BIX, 22.3N74.0W, 18.5N87W, TAM, 28.7N88.4W into the GreatCircleMapper
Longest red line denotes the movement between last two positions. Below the map shows:
TS.Bonnie had a heading of 299degrees (6.5degrees north of WestNorthWest) while traveling
a distance of 57miles(~92kilometres) over 3hours at a speed of 19mph(~31k/h), and was
43miles(~69kilometres) away from the Gulf in the direction of its heading.

^ Straightline projections are not forecasts of what will happen in the future,
especially not for TropicalCyclones. They aftcast what has already happened.
* DeepwaterHorizon is marked at 28.7N88.4W
Starting to get some rain up near Brooksville, Fl. At least it will wash some dust off the car.

Do we have a TD, now?
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
FTP ATCF files are not official information. Bonnie is still a tropical storm.



it is official information. It is the file sharing network between agencies to share information about tropical systems and according to that it is a TD
1067. Hhunter
Quoting seflagamma:
hello everyone,

I went home for lunch break and my area must have received some gusty winds. One of my neighbors had a tall palm tree broke in half and many limbs were down. In my backyard I had a large tree limb that had broken off a tree and on ground.

Plus we have those large city provided green on wheel trash cans..the big ones...and this morning was trash pickup.. they were all blown over like dominos in our neighborhood.


So mush have had a few hard gusts..

and I had little over 1" of rain.. so not as much rain as we had hoped for... I am sure other areas , like out here in Weston, got more rain.


Now it looks like it is bringing some rainfall to the central west coast of Florida which is good.....


Good report, I'm guessing we'll get much of the same in the FL Panhandle tomorrow. We're under Tropical Storm Warnings now instead of watches so I guess they recognize the fact that Bonnie is going further East than forecasted.
Bonnie is moving up the west coast right now.
1070. Patrap
Quoting MiamiWarnings:
patrap, remember, the majors are coming, HECK, even 09 had a few majors to deal with, though non of them made landfall; however, for this year, wishful thinking. lets continue to enjoy the peace while we have it.


U betcha..

the spurious Lows will be replaced with Long Track CV Misery soon nuff.
That blob pulling together just North of Hispaniola should be an invest any time now..
Quoting Twinkster:



it is official information. It is the file sharing network between agencies to share information about tropical systems and according to that it is a TD
Well, unofficially, I have been calling Bonnie a wet spot all day in the office...
1073. centex
I don't disagree with open wave observations; I just think it may get it back quickly in GOM. Then again this fighter may have exceeded her number of fights and someone will need to pull the plug. Just a little funny S. FL did her in.
Quoting Relix:


Not exactly right. The NWS in SJ is calling it a tropical wave.
The Puerto Rico Discussion does not include the trough over the Dominican Republic, they only speak about the tropical wave near 53W.
Quoting Patrap:


What was the Last Hurricane to strike Fla and when...?


500$ Lagniappe





Wilma, Oct 24, 2005. Ding Ding Ding...or did someone else guess it first?
TD or TS, who cares people, it's a 5 mph difference. Should just call this the argue for the sake of arguing blog!
1077. sngalla
Hey Gams! We had 2.64 in of rain from TS Bonnie. Basically a non event here.
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
The Puerto Rico Discussion does not include the trough over the Dominican Republic, they only speak about the tropical wave near 53W.
Well, that is a forecast discussion. Why bother talking about what isn't coming?
1079. FLdewey
*peeks head out of basement*

Is... is it safe to come out?
Ernesto in 2006 was only a hurricane about 5 minutes in the Caribbean and barely a TS when it hit South Florida... it was a big bust for us all! LOL
1081. Patrap

18z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
Bonnie
Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)





Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)



Quoting Twinkster:



it is official information. It is the file sharing network between agencies to share information about tropical systems and according to that it is a TD
It is not official information. Official information is the NHC. I've seen countless times that the ATCF intensity, coordinates, etc... are not in agreement with what the NHC says in their advisory.
Quoting atmoaggie:
Well, unofficially, I have been calling Bonnie a wet spot all day in the office...


I personally don't even think this will stay a TD much longer. The LLC is weak and exposed and the convection to the north of the center is no longer being influenced by the center and are moving as if they were part of an open wave. plus there is still shear from the ull in the gom and the center still has about 2 hours over land before it fully emerges
definately a little gusty here in srq winds 15-20,gusting to 25....
in my book this TS dos not even look like a name storm any more
Quoting centex:
I don't disagree with open wave observations; I just think it may get it back quickly in GOM. Then again this fighter may have exceeded her number of fights and someone will need to pull the plug. Just a little funny S. FL did her in.


More like the ULL. S FL is pretty flat.
afternoon, gamma! remember, pat, the majors are coming, i can assure you of that, heck, even 09 had a few majors.
Quoting Jeff9641:
This wave near PR is looking more interesting this afternoon. This may very be something to watch over the next few days.
I'd have to agree that it is not analyzed as a tropical wave by the NHC, according to their chart. I noticed this area when the former Bonnie was near the Bahamas. What ever the feature is classified as (or not), it's showing some hints of something going on in the mid-levels. It should be watched as shear is favorable as of now. Link
Bonnie has that really big center of circulation we see so many times across South FL.
for how much longer, storm?
Quoting atmoaggie:
Well, that is a forecast discussion. Why bother talking about what isn't coming?
Ooooppppssss!

Does anyone have the link for the Puerto Rico discussion consisting the area by the Dominican Republic?
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
It is not official information. Official information is the NHC. I've seen countless times that the ATCF intensity, coordinates, etc... are not in agreement with what the NHC says in their advisory.


I have never seen ATCF upgrade or downgrade a system and then the NHC not follow suit. this is definitely a td now if not less than that
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
It is not official information. Official information is the NHC. I've seen countless times that the ATCF intensity, coordinates, etc... are not in agreement with what the NHC says in their advisory.
Still more than likely a great clue as to what is coming up in a fine NHC advisory near you...
1095. Hhunter
San Juan 68.1 °F 62% 29.97 in (Falling) Light Rain NW at 1.0 mph 3:14 PM AST

northwest wind in san juan.....
Sngalla, hi ya neighbor! Looks like you got more rain that my house did.. but I think severael places got more than my 1"...

Out here in Weston we have a lot of the large Royal Palms so a lot of those fonds were blown off...the ones that are almost ready to fall anyway!


Skye, good to see you.. so be looking for the next wave to watch soon?


Viking, thanks... I think the storm will pull more east than forcasted.. I just hope it does not pull any tricks before landfall...
and I hate for you all in the Panhandle to get a hit but we sure do not want it anywhere near all that oil....

Hi Miamiwarnings.
i would not even call this a TD right now
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
No, I do think it is a tropical depression, not a tropical storm at this point.


agree Miami. How was your weather last night?
Did you get to ride the scooter around in TS Winds and Rain? :)

1099. Crawls
Quoting Patrap:


U betcha..

the spurious Lows will be replaced with Long Track CV Misery soon nuff.


Oh No - the S word again!!!!!
Quoting Twinkster:


I have never seen ATCF upgrade or downgrade a system and then the NHC not follow suit. this is definitely a td now if not less than that
I agree that Bonnie now is a tropical depression, it's just that ATCF files are not official. It is more than likely that Bonnie will be downgraded at 5PM.
1102. DDR
By the looks of it bonnie hardly packed a punch,3.8 cm @ miami international.
I've got my first dry day in 3 weeks(Trinidad).
000
WHXX01 KWBC 231813
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1813 UTC FRI JUL 23 2010

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE BONNIE (AL032010) 20100723 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
100723 1800 100724 0600 100724 1800 100725 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 25.8N 81.1W 26.8N 83.6W 28.2N 86.0W 29.4N 88.1W
BAMD 25.8N 81.1W 27.7N 84.8W 30.2N 88.3W 33.0N 90.4W
BAMM 25.8N 81.1W 27.1N 84.2W 29.0N 87.1W 30.8N 89.4W
LBAR 25.8N 81.1W 27.4N 84.4W 29.4N 87.6W 31.7N 89.8W
SHIP 30KTS 31KTS 35KTS 37KTS
DSHP 30KTS 33KTS 37KTS 40KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
100725 1800 100726 1800 100727 1800 100728 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 30.6N 89.8W 32.9N 92.7W 35.8N 94.3W 39.4N 94.4W
BAMD 35.3N 91.1W 38.1N 87.9W 37.8N 79.4W 34.7N 71.4W
BAMM 32.7N 90.8W 35.8N 91.7W 38.2N 88.8W 38.0N 82.7W
LBAR 33.8N 90.3W 36.5N 86.4W 37.1N 77.2W 36.5N 64.8W
SHIP 40KTS 42KTS 45KTS 47KTS
DSHP 31KTS 27KTS 27KTS 28KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 25.8N LONCUR = 81.1W DIRCUR = 300DEG SPDCUR = 18KT
LATM12 = 23.8N LONM12 = 77.8W DIRM12 = 297DEG SPDM12 = 19KT
LATM24 = 22.2N LONM24 = 74.9W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 35NM WNDM12 = 35KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM




a Td it is
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I agree that Bonnie now is a tropical depression, it's just that ATCF files are not official. It is more than likely that Bonnie will be downgraded at 5PM.


someone should e-mail the NHC and ask them if bonnie is still a tropical storm and not a depression. I wonder if their answer would drop a hint
On CIMSS Bonnie is TD now.

Link
1106. FLdewey
Quoting Crawls:


Oh No - the S word again!!!!!


I think my next handle will be Spurious George
1107. Levi32
Quoting StormW:
Saving grace?



Back later.


Not necessarily. The numerical index of the NAO can't be used as well in the summertime because the NAO becomes more of a tripole anomaly rather than the strong winter dipole when the oscillation is strongest.

Take a look at the CPC map for a positive NAO height anomaly pattern in the northern hemisphere. Lower than normal pressures are found in the tropics south of the ridge in the Atlantic during July and October. You can even see it start to show up as early as April, but in the middle of winter it's just a dipole. The tripole pattern in the summer though can be favorable for tropical activity in the Atlantic if it's set up right. That July image looks like the ECMWF seasonal MSLP forecast for this year.

Quoting TropicalNonsense:


agree Miami. How was your weather last night?
Did you get to ride the scooter around in TS Winds and Rain? :)

Nah, the metro mover was up and working so I just decided to take that, LOL. I was up until the early morning last night (2 AM I believe) and there wasn't much in the way of activity except for the occasional passing shower. The weather started to "deteriorate" in the morning around 6AM. After that I recorded 2.04 inches of rain and some gusts reaching 35 knots.
Quoting Levi32:
Bonnie running on one exhaust pipe to the northwest. One exhaust pipe isn't enough for a tropical cyclone. You want outflow all around the storm and Bonnie isn't getting that. The flow around the system is pretty much unidirectional.


Yes, I see clearly NW still vs the expected W to WNW. It could make it up to Sarasota before gettting back over water. Good news for northern gulf coast as this gives it less time to reorg and the waters cooler off tampa as well.
this says it all TD


Quoting Tazmanian:
000
WHXX01 KWBC 231813
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1813 UTC FRI JUL 23 2010

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE BONNIE (AL032010) 20100723 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
100723 1800 100724 0600 100724 1800 100725 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 25.8N 81.1W 26.8N 83.6W 28.2N 86.0W 29.4N 88.1W
BAMD 25.8N 81.1W 27.7N 84.8W 30.2N 88.3W 33.0N 90.4W
BAMM 25.8N 81.1W 27.1N 84.2W 29.0N 87.1W 30.8N 89.4W
LBAR 25.8N 81.1W 27.4N 84.4W 29.4N 87.6W 31.7N 89.8W
SHIP 30KTS 31KTS 35KTS 37KTS
DSHP 30KTS 33KTS 37KTS 40KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
100725 1800 100726 1800 100727 1800 100728 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 30.6N 89.8W 32.9N 92.7W 35.8N 94.3W 39.4N 94.4W
BAMD 35.3N 91.1W 38.1N 87.9W 37.8N 79.4W 34.7N 71.4W
BAMM 32.7N 90.8W 35.8N 91.7W 38.2N 88.8W 38.0N 82.7W
LBAR 33.8N 90.3W 36.5N 86.4W 37.1N 77.2W 36.5N 64.8W
SHIP 40KTS 42KTS 45KTS 47KTS
DSHP 31KTS 27KTS 27KTS 28KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 25.8N LONCUR = 81.1W DIRCUR = 300DEG SPDCUR = 18KT
LATM12 = 23.8N LONM12 = 77.8W DIRM12 = 297DEG SPDM12 = 19KT
LATM24 = 22.2N LONM24 = 74.9W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 35NM WNDM12 = 35KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM




a Td it is
Looks like invest 99L is coming soon N of PR. This should have a much better enviroment than Bonnie. It almost looks as if Bonnie has paved the way for bigger systems to form close by. I would watch this area closely.
Quoting Patrap:



oooh,,no.

"500 debit"

Wilma, Oct 05
...and the bonus question: since 1851, what percentage of all US landfalling hurricanes strike Florida?
1114. centex
Quoting wayfaringstranger:


More like the ULL. S FL is pretty flat.
I think land even flat land is reason "straw that broke camel’s back", it was fighting the ULL for days but not both. If true it may come back again as weak TS once in GOM.
Wow, lots of dry air, still, in the 18 Z soundings at Miami and Key West: http://w1.spc.woc.noaa.gov/exper/soundings/10072318_OBS/
Quoting DDR:
By the looks of it bonnie hardly packed a punch,3.8 cm @ miami international.
I've got my first dry day in 3 weeks(Trinidad).


3.8cm or inches?
Bonnie still trucking up the west coast. I say it ain't so. I can tell as the weather in Orlando has been squally.
36%
Quoting NttyGrtty:
...and the bonus question: since 1851, what percentage of all US landfalling hurricanes strike Florida?
1119. angiest
Quoting Twinkster:


I have never seen ATCF upgrade or downgrade a system and then the NHC not follow suit. this is definitely a td now if not less than that


Didn't 95L have ATCF entries indicating TD, but it was never declared?
Quoting MiamiWarnings:
storm does it mena that the season is a bust?




are you are bustcaster lol
Quoting Jeff9641:
Looks like invest 99L is coming soon N of PR. This should have a much better enviroment than Bonnie. It almost looks as if Bonnie has paved the way for bigger systems to form close by. I would watch this area closely.


LOL... there he goes again!
1122. Levi32
July MSLP anomalies so far (through the 20th).....not good. This is very bad. It's only a matter of time before this pattern unloads.



Quoting seflagamma:
Quoting Patrap:


What was the Last Hurricane to strike Fla and when...?


500$ Lagniappe





Wilma, Oct 24, 2005. Ding Ding Ding...or did someone else guess it first?
Quoting sammywammybamy:


Last One to Strike South Florida was

WILMA OCTOBER Around 24/27 2005



I guessed it first.

BONNIE WAS A BUST
Me, being my "mono-whatchamacallit" self (Whats that word Pat?) feel compelled to show those who want to read it, JB's latest.


FRIDAY 2 P.M.
BONNIE NO MORE

Whether TPC wants to admit it or not, this is now a poor excuse for a tropical storm as the radar presentation shows the cloud signature is falling apart rapidly. The storm should be downgraded to a wave.

I believe the FACTS on the track of this so far, the weather so far and what is going to happen will prove me to be correct. The peak winds on the Florida coast in gusts look to be a bit over 50. In the oil spill area, when this reaches there tomorrow, they are liable to be no more than 25. I will monitor, but Bonnie should be downgraded as the system looks open.

Ciao for now.
I THINK WE NEED TO START WATCHING THIS WAVE.
Gamma~ Yeah, if there wasn't all those islands in the way, I think it would pull together scary fast. Looks gamely. Hispaniola & PR are in for more rain..
1127. wxhatt
fairly disorganized now:

levi, that's what i love about you, bro, you back up everything that you state with explinations and facts, dude. you always do your HW. props to you for that, that is what makes you so liked in here.
Quoting NttyGrtty:
...and the bonus question: since 1851, what percentage of all US landfalling hurricanes strike Florida?


43%
Quoting Jeff9641:
Looks like invest 99L is coming soon N of PR. This should have a much better enviroment than Bonnie. It almost looks as if Bonnie has paved the way for bigger systems to form close by. I would watch this area closely.
The upper level environment seems to improve in about 48 hours as per the GFS 12z shear forecast.

Quoting Levi32:
July MSLP anomalies so far (through the 20th).....not good. This is very bad. It's only a matter of time before this pattern unloads.




in other words?
Highest wind that we noticed here at my Weather station was 22mph... Barometric pressure seems to be falling a bit but not much more then the afternoon oscillation that we normally exp.

1133. ncstorm
Quoting Patrap:

18z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
Bonnie
Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)





Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)





maybe a loop de loop for Bonnie and exiting off back in the atlantic reintensifying?? over the warmest SSTs near the northeast?
Quoting wxhatt:
fairly disorganized now:




i dont think it even has a spin too it any more
1137. angiest
Quoting ncstorm:


maybe a loop de loop for Bonnie and exiting off back in the atlantic reintensifying?? over the warmest SSTs near the northeast?


I mentioned earlier that NOGAPS made me think of Ivan.
I have a hard time believing Bonnie, if she gets back over water, is ever going to follow the current track into Louisianna...I think what's left will lift north into Panhandle of florida......but what do I know anyway! :o)

1139. Levi32
Trade winds so far this month, despite the NAO going neutral to positive a lot of the time, have remained weaker than normal in the MDR (the westsouthwesterly anomalies south of 20N).

1140. FLdewey
Good day for boating.


1141. DDR
Quoting StonedCrab:


3.8cm or inches?

3.8cm or 1.496 inches.
Quoting Levi32:
July MSLP anomalies so far (through the 20th).....not good. This is very bad. It's only a matter of time before this pattern unloads.

Oh man. Look at the Gulf of Mexico and north of the Caribbean islands. A disturbance moving in there would have no problems developing a low if conditions prohibit.
Quoting atmoaggie:
Wow, lots of dry air, still, in the 18 Z soundings at Miami and Key West: http://w1.spc.woc.noaa.gov/exper/soundings/10072318_OBS/


well, 2+ in of pw isnt too dry...
Quoting Jeff9641:
Looks like invest 99L is coming soon N of PR. This should have a much better enviroment than Bonnie. It almost looks as if Bonnie has paved the way for bigger systems to form close by. I would watch this area closely.
North of PR...how do you figure? Look at where the clouds are comming in from..the ESE just south is Hispanola. I'd say more likely to be just south of the Dominican Rep.
i am, taz. how are you?
They might not downgrade just because they would have to upgrade it again soon. The low level swirl is just edging out over the GOM now and should strengthen back to 35-40kts quite quickly.

What will be interesting to follow is whether Bonnie can hold on to some of the moisture in the gulf for a longer period of time, I have a feeling moisture will determine strengthening or dissipation.
Quoting seflagamma:
I have a hard time believing Bonnie, if she gets back over water, is ever going to follow the current track into Louisianna...I think what's left will lift north into Panhandle of florida......but what do I know anyway! :o)



I think you're right.
Quoting Levi32:
July MSLP anomalies so far (through the 20th).....not good. This is very bad. It's only a matter of time before this pattern unloads.



Well I think you mentioned in your video. Africa looks like a powder keg to me....
1149. Levi32
Quoting Tazmanian:



in other words?


I don't have to put it in other words lol.
Quoting MiamiWarnings:
storm does it mena that the season is a bust?


I'm not Storm, but I think it's safe to say, no it does not. However, one can always hope.
Quoting atmoaggie:
Wow, lots of dry air, still, in the 18 Z soundings at Miami and Key West: http://w1.spc.woc.noaa.gov/exper/soundings/10072318_OBS/


The dry air & dust made for a ringless orange moon here lastnight. .02inch or rain so far in Melbourne.
levi, would future storms track through those areas of lowest pressures?
Quoting MiamiWarnings:
i am, taz. how are you?



doing good
1157. tkeith
-_-
1158. wxhatt
getting ready to emerge to the gulf, south of cape coral:

1159. FLdewey
Quoting MiamiWarnings:
i am, taz. how are you?


Out of jail so soon?
did are TS turn in too a open wave?

Link
Quoting FLdewey:


Out of jail so soon?



me?
1162. FLdewey
Quoting DestinJeff:


except for all the torpedoes.


Das boot?
Quoting StormHype:


LOL... there he goes again!



What?/
Quoting tkeith:
-_-
^_^
Quoting wxhatt:
getting ready to emerge to the gulf, south of cape coral:



it will be about another 2 hours before center fully emerges into gom. granted i think it will fall apart soon after
Quoting LouisianaWoman:
36%
..close! 40%Link
1168. FLdewey
Quoting Tazmanian:



me?


No JF... err MiamiWarnings
1169. tkeith
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
^_^
just sayin...
Quoting Tazmanian:
did are TS turn in too a open wave?

Link
No Taz. Look at radar. You can evidently see a circulation.
Quoting FLdewey:


Out of jail so soon?


This tells it all....
Link
1173. srada
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
The upper level environment seems to improve in about 48 hours as per the GFS 12z shear forecast.



Hello Everyone..Do we have invest 99L??..I didnt see it on wunderground tropical page?
1174. DDR
Quoting Levi32:
Trade winds so far this month, despite the NAO going neutral to positive a lot of the time, have remained weaker than normal in the MDR (the westsouthwesterly anomalies south of 20N).


Levi,the trades have been mostly normal here with just about 3 days with light winds,August usual sees trades slacking more often.
1175. wxhatt
Good thing not like this:

Quoting srada:


Hello Everyone..Do we have invest 99L??..I didnt see it on wunderground tropical page?



there is no 99L
Here in Sarasota, FL Bonnie is a non-event. The wind blew about 5 mph and we got 1/2 inch of rain. Our garden variety afternoon thunderstorms are worse than this, lol.
Quoting srada:


Hello Everyone..Do we have invest 99L??..I didnt see it on wunderground tropical page?
No.
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
It is not official information. Official information is the NHC. I've seen countless times that the ATCF intensity, coordinates, etc... are not in agreement with what the NHC says in their advisory.


It will not "be seen" as official information until it is put into
an NHC advisory and then it will be "official" for the public.

but otherwise you know the downgrade is coming.
Quoting tkeith:
just sayin...
LOL, yeah, I think everyone is catching on.
The circulation is bout half way off the S FL coast according to this. It's also moving a lot slower and a lot LESS North that the thunderstorms being picked up by the ULL. Course, I'm no met

http://www.sfwmd.gov/portal/page/portal/xweb%20weather/current%20weather%20conditions%20%28florida%2 0radar%20%20satellite%20loop%29Link
Quoting srada:


Hello Everyone..Do we have invest 99L??..I didnt see it on wunderground tropical page?


NO... Just an area that needs watching.
Storm, DetinJ, Miami

Am I seeing the ULL begin to break apart?
From watching that low it looks like the southern portion is being busted up maybe from the moisture off from 98I?

If so, I wonder how quick this will happen as it might spell game on once again for Bonnie...
WXH, that's on it's way, just wait until sept, i can assure you of that.
Quoting wxhatt:
Good thing not like this:





i think that storm would have been came a cat 5 if it had other day or two overe water
http://www.sfwmd.gov/portal/page/portal/xweb%20weather/current%20weather%20conditions%20%28florida%20 radar%20%20satellite%20loop%29
1190. Patrap
Quoting angiest:


Didn't 95L have ATCF entries indicating TD, but it was never declared?


Yup,

..but 95L didnt happen.

The mob was to Busy Admiring 96L's Yucatan/Caribbean Convective dance of the Blobs.

But DocNDswamp did a good job with the Post storm learnings.

it will be downgraded unless within the next hour... one of the following happens

1. surface reports report 40 mph sustained winds

2. a significant convection burst begins to develop over the center
1192. srada
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
No.


thanks..I scroll down in the pages and saw people talking about 99L..
Quoting wxhatt:
Good thing not like this:



Holy Mother of God !!!!!!!
Mesoscale Discussion 1431

MD 1431 graphic


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1431
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0218 PM CDT FRI JUL 23 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...AL/FL PANHANDLE COAST...EXTREME SRN/SERN AL AND
SWRN GA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 231918Z - 232015Z

A THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL EXIST ACROSS THE
REGION. A WW IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.

VERY STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING HAS RESULTED IN SFC TEMPERATURES
WARMING INTO THE UPPER 90S. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SFC OBS
REVEAL A CONFLUENCE ZONE EXTENDING FROM NEAR 15 SW PNS TO 10 ESE DHN
TO 20 SSE CSG...WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FORMING ALONG THIS LINE.
ENHANCED DEEP-LAYER ELY FLOW ALONG THE NRN PERIPHERY OF A CLOSED
MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION PROGRESSING WWD ACROSS THE GULF WILL EXIST
ACROSS THE FL PANHANDLE...YIELDING EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES
AROUND 30 KTS. 18Z TLH SOUNDING INDICATES STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES IN RESPONSE TO BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING...AND GIVEN SFC T-TD
SPREADS OF 20-30 DEG F ACROSS THE REGION...THE POTENTIAL FOR
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL EXIST WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.

HIGH RESOLUTION SHORT-TERM MODEL SOLUTIONS REMAIN INCONSISTENT WITH
THE EVOLUTION OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BUT THERE IS SOME SIGNAL INDICATING THAT THUNDERSTORMS MAY
ATTEMPT TO ORGANIZE INTO A BROKEN LINE ACROSS THE ERN FL PANHANDLE
INTO SRN AL LATER THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ALREADY IN PLACE...THIS SCENARIO IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION...AND IF THIS WERE TO MATERIALIZE...A MORE WIDESPREAD
THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS MAY EXIST LATER THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...WITH THE EXPECTED ISOLATED NATURE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE NEXT FEW HRS...A WW IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.

..ROGERS.. 07/23/2010


ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB...

1196. wxhatt
Next Tropical Wave to track:

Its finally raining!!!!!
http://www.sfwmd.gov/portal/page/portal/xweb%20weather/current%20weather%20conditions%20%28florida%20 radar%20%20satellite%20loop%29" target="_blank">Link
...and before I lose the hurricane trivia mood Mr. Pearson put us in: how many Cat 5's have made US landfall and where?
Bonnie vs. Fay

Yes I know, it's a bad comparison, but cool to look at.

Bonnie radar


Fay radar


Patrap, is Mothers still open? My wife says it's closed.
Interesting 12z ECMWF run.. shows a 1014 mb low off the CV islands in 72 hours and then tries to pull it together in the Caribbean. Defiantly something to watch.
Quoting Progster:


well, 2+ in of pw isnt too dry...
No, it isn't. But a single dry layer does not sustain deep convection in a warm core system.
Link
Trying again as this a very good site
Quoting wxhatt:
Next Tropical Wave to track:


I just go back from the boat and noticed that..looks like it's organizing....
1209. tkeith
Nice Tie Dewey...
Widdle Bonnie
LOL
Bonnie is very weak. I'm in South Fort Myers (pretty close to the center of Bonnie) and I'm only seeing 10-15 mph (max) winds on my anemometer (which is mounted about 25 ft off the ground)..
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Interesting 12z ECMWF run.. shows a 1014 mb low off the CV islands in 72 hours and then tries to pull it together in the Caribbean. Defiantly something to watch.


Is there a shear forecast to compare against?
1213. FLdewey
Quoting tkeith:
Nice Tie Dewey...


It stopped raining... huh it DOES work.
Quoting DestinJeff:


all of them. US coast.
Oooooo, close!! 4, 3 hit the US coast and 1 hit Louisiana
COC is just SE of Naples now, and still moving NW.


12z 216 hours out ECMWF.. poor Haiti. Keep in mind as noted earlier the ECMWF has trouble with smaller and weaker systems, which is why the ECMWF didn't develop Bonnie.

1217. wxhatt
Could this become Colin?

I am starting to see a spin in that Wave of the cost of Pueto Rico and a second one just around 98L was just last night..
Ok, looks like I finally figured out the link thing.

This Fl SFWMD site shows both radar and satellite. Looks to me as if the circulation is still pretty decent and just exiting the FL coast. Also looks like it is not being affected as much as the thunderstorms to the north by the ULL.....then again, I'm a novice in the real Met world

Link
Raining heavily now in Naples; still no wind to speak of.
Upper level low with a reflection almost to the surface..

Sometime TS's can generate TONS of rainfall when they stall-out, like in the heat-warped eastern USA.
But Bonnie.... mmmmmmm... shear - dry - tiny - too fast - ULL - etc...
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Interesting 12z ECMWF run.. shows a 1014 mb low off the CV islands in 72 hours and then tries to pull it together in the Caribbean. Defiantly something to watch.
The GFS also recently showed something very similar to this, so it surely bears watching.
1224. Drakoen
Looks like dry air has taken a hold of Bonnie. Water vapor imagery shows it's in a wedge between the upper level low moving into the Western GOM and high pressure system to the east.

Regarding the area near Puerto Rico, upper level winds are unfavorable for development.
1225. Buhdog
i was hoping to be able to track the storm across fl from here in Cape Coral at my house! Nope..lil thing decided to do it from my work all day ahead of schedule. that was anticlimactic to say the least. i guess i can watch it offshore! 15mph winds in ft myers and light rain.
Quoting Sfloridacat5:
Bonnie is very weak. I'm in South Fort Myers (pretty close to the center of Bonnie) and I'm only seeing 10-15 mph (max) winds on my anemometer (which is mounted about 25 ft off the ground)..
As far as official obs go, this says TD, maybe.

No west winds, the keys recording north to calm...

Quoting Sfloridacat5:
Bonnie is very weak. I'm in South Fort Myers (pretty close to the center of Bonnie) and I'm only seeing 10-15 mph (max) winds on my anemometer (which is mounted about 25 ft off the ground)..


With a name like Sfloridacat5, you must be dissapointed. Still plenty of time for excitement over the next 3 months.
1230. FLdewey
Quoting DestinJeff:
Time to reboot your scripts everybody!


FTW
is this season over?

does NHC have it wrong?
Quoting wxhatt:
Could this become Colin?



Keeps tabs on it. It may turn out to be nothing. Not much else to look at the moment besides Bonnie.
Quoting wxhatt:
Could this become Colin?




in time yes
Quoting wxhatt:
Could this become Colin?



Colin all cars!!!

Is the proto-Colin forming out of the remnants left behind from Bonnie?? Or is it its own Wave??

1235. Drakoen
The reliable CFS shows a weak downward motion to through the end of the month and then the MJO returning within the first week of August.

1236. FLdewey
Quoting Sfloridacat5:
Bonnie is very weak. I'm in South Fort Myers (pretty close to the center of Bonnie) and I'm only seeing 10-15 mph (max) winds on my anemometer (which is mounted about 25 ft off the ground)..


HA!

Winds would be blowin like a mutha at 26ft and you would have no idea!
WATCH THIS TO.
Quoting Baybuddy:
Patrap, is Mothers still open? My wife says it's closed.


It was a month ago when I was there. Pretty busy too.
Quoting Drakoen:
The reliable CFS shows a weak downward motion to through the end of the month and then the MJO returning within the first week of August.



Likely to occur, as all the heat is bundled in the Atlantic.
Quoting fallinstorms:
is this season over?

does NHC have it wrong?


The meat of the season is on its way. We are ahead of an average season anyway. 3 TD's formed, 2 TS formed from that, 1 Hurricane which reached Category 2 in strength. Most production in an average season comes from around Aug 15 to Oct 20, with the peak of activity on Sept 11.
Quoting CaneWarning:


I don't care about his past. He was dead on with this one. I for one will read his posts more seriously from now on. His/her delivery stinks though. I don't mind that. I kind of like rude people.


LOL ... You have found the right blog 'Cane!
Quoting Drakoen:
The reliable CFS shows a weak downward motion to through the end of the month and then the MJO returning within the first week of August.



Right around when it should be.
Quoting fallinstorms:
is this season over?

does NHC have it wrong?


No, everything is shaping up for a 15-18 named storm season. Record SSTs, High TCHP, La Nina, ect.
Quoting jasoniscoolman2010x:
WATCH THIS TO.



why it gos POOF this like the rest dos
A real downer:


i got a feeling there isn't going to be much. Bonnie didn't even last 24 hours and there is nothing out there.
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Things seem quiet after Bonnie.

A real downer:




Again I state, the GFS is probably off and the CFS is probably more accurate, as all the heat is bundled in the Atlantic rather than elsewhere.
Bonnie looks like it is falling apart. Lots of showers on the north side, but the core is almost gone.



Sheesh.. its like talking to a brick wall to people on here.
Basically almost the entire Atlantic is unfavorable. With the exception of Alex probably going to have to wait close to mid August too see a decent looking storm. Going by all the tools available 2 more weeks until something big happening IMO
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Things seem quiet after Bonnie.

A real downer:




yet again, that will not come to pass, why can't you get that?
1253. wxhatt
Seems they give a greater chance of TC formation probability to the wave between Africa and Lesser Antilles:





Quoting DestinJeff:
Time to reboot your scripts everybody!

"Do you think the PR disturbance gets mentioned in the next TWO?"

"We have our next invest ... 10%"

"Wow. Jump to 40%, again with NHC conservativeness,"

"Bet they drop to 20%"

"Poll time!"

"Still 20%"

"Man, went to bed with a barely there invest at 20% and now it is RED and 80%!"

"Thats a TD if I have ever seen one."

"ULL"

"Shear"

"Boom"

"Welcome Colin everyone!"

"Reminds me of Andrew."

okay ... I'll stop.


I was waiting for "My grand mother is stranded in Ft. Lauderdale and I can't reach her because the phones are out. Can someone help me on this blog to locate her... blah blah" Remember all those hoaxes from years past? Then you watch the naive take the bait. It's like falling for the Nigerian bank email scam.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Sheesh.. its like talking to a brick wall to people on here.



heh
Quoting Drakoen:
The reliable CFS shows a weak downward motion to through the end of the month and then the MJO returning within the first week of August.



I believe that Storm said a few blogs ago that the MJO forecast has been a bit off so far. I dont want to mis-quote but I believe that is what was said.
Afternoon everyone. Bonnie is exiting the coast very close to where I live. Pressure here at the house is 29.86 and falling. Pretty much a rain event, although in the last 20 or 30 mins the wind has been increasing.
Quoting wxhatt:
Seems they give a greater chance of TC formation probability to the wave between Africa and Lesser Antilles:









if the wave dos not start pulling up N soon it will run in too land
Hwy 98 bumper car time. Have a great weekend everyone (even the Dept. of the Navy)...
Quoting Relix:
It's kinda sad Bonnie couldn't survive Florida which is basically plain XD


Did you want Bonnie to grow in strength and cause more damage or harm people?
Quoting robert88:
Basically almost the entire Atlantic is unfavorable. With the exception of Alex probably going to have to wait close to mid August too see a decent looking storm. Going by all the tools available 2 more weeks until something big happening IMO


Not really.. GFS forecast for shear is more favorable.
Quoting StormHype:


I was waiting for "My grand mother is stranded in Ft. Lauderdale and I can't reach her because the phones are out. Can someone help me on this blog to locate her... blah blah" Remember all those hoaxes from years past? Then you watch the naive take the bait. It's like falling for the Nigerian bank email scam.


When did that one happen?
Quoting charlottefl:
Afternoon everyone. Bonnie is exiting the coast very close to where I live. Pressure here at the house is 29.86 and falling. Pretty much a rain event, although in the last 20 or 30 mins the wind has been increasing.


right, increasing from 5 to about 8 mph. see that where i'm at too in SW FL. about 0.25 inch of rain so far. yawn
1265. MTWX
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Nah, the metro mover was up and working so I just decided to take that, LOL. I was up until the early morning last night (2 AM I believe) and there wasn't much in the way of activity except for the occasional passing shower. The weather started to "deteriorate" in the morning around 6AM. After that I recorded 2.04 inches of rain and some gusts reaching 35 knots.

Where is your wind bird located?
Quoting DestinJeff:
Time to reboot your scripts everybody!

"Do you think the PR disturbance gets mentioned in the next TWO?"

"We have our next invest ... 10%"

"Wow. Jump to 40%, again with NHC conservativeness,"

"Bet they drop to 20%"

"Poll time!"

"Still 20%"

"Man, went to bed with a barely there invest at 20% and now it is RED and 80%!"

"Thats a TD if I have ever seen one."

"ULL"

"Shear"

"Boom"

"Welcome Colin everyone!"

"Reminds me of Andrew."

okay ... I'll stop.

"
"f5"
"f5"
"f5"
"f5"
"f5"
"f5"
"f5"
"f5"
"f5"
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Sheesh.. its like talking to a brick wall to people on here.


Did I say it was going to happen?

No.
My Bonnie lies over the ocean
My Bonnie lies over the sea
My Bonnie lies over the ocean
Oh bring back my Bonnie to me

Bring back, bring back
Bring back my Bonnie to me, to me
Bring back, bring back
Bring back my Bonnie to me

The winds will blow over the ocean
The winds will blow over the sea
The winds will blow over the ocean
To bring back my Bonnie to me

Bring back, bring back
Bring back my Bonnie to me, to me
Bring back, bring back
Bring back my Bonnie to me

Bring back, bring back
Oh, bring back my Bonnie to me


....and that's all I have to say about that.
1269. angiest
Quoting ElConando:


The meat of the season is on its way. We are ahead of an average season anyway. 3 TD's formed, 2 TS formed from that, 1 Hurricane which reached Category 2 in strength. Most production in an average season comes from around Aug 15 to Oct 20, with the peak of activity on Sept 11.


Ahhhh I sense The Chart coming soon...
Bombogenesis Nor'Easter Season starts soon!
3 more months
(snicker)

Quoting Stormchaser2007:


Did I say it was going to happen?

No.


I wasn't referring to you. All your doing is stating what the GFS is predicting.
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Again I state, the GFS is probably off and the CFS is probably more accurate, as all the heat is bundled in the Atlantic rather than elsewhere.


Been doing that for 2 months.
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Bonnie vs. Fay

Yes I know, it's a bad comparison, but cool to look at.

Bonnie radar


Fay radar




FAY IS A WINNER BY FAR,BONNIE WAS A BUST
Quoting angiest:


Ahhhh I sense The Chart coming soon...


LOL 5 bucks says I know who's gonna post it.
Quoting BahaHurican:
What's all the big deal about this hurrikat person?

In the first place, I refuse to read anything in allcaps - it hurts my eyes. So what's the use of forecasting correctly if nobody's reading what u say?

Second, the NHC had this nailed last Monday. This storm has done pretty much what they implied it would in their 5-day forecast then. They called a possible landfall near / over NOLA ages ago. So what's so spectacular and worth revering about this hurrikat guy?

Finally, most of the more focused wx bloggers in here were able to demonstrate the reasoning behind their forecasts - and they didn't bludgeon blog readers in the process. And their forecasts have been correct, for the most part. I don't see why I should be giving credit to somebody who didn't do as much as they did and instead just kept beating people over the heat, shouting at them the whole time.

To me, there's too much "blogger-worship" and "blogger-condemnation" going on in this blog right now. I have a lot of respect for StormW, but there's no need to worship him. Jeff-with-the-numbers annoys the bejesus out of me sometimes, but that's no reason for me to condemn him. As Ike says, it's only weather. We all need to relax a little bit about the personality cult and focus on what we came here for - the weather.

Let's hear from Miami-Dade and Monroe County bloggers about conditions in their area. What about oil rig / oil spill preparations? What about Bonnie's future in the GoM? Anything else brewing in the MDR? Lot's of wx related things to talk about instead of sucking up to or bashing other bloggers....



Well said Baha! I could not agree more!!
I wondered how long it would take before I saw this. :)


Quoting StormSurgeon:
My Bonnie lies over the ocean
My Bonnie lies over the sea
My Bonnie lies over the ocean
Oh bring back my Bonnie to me

Bring back, bring back
Bring back my Bonnie to me, to me
Bring back, bring back
Bring back my Bonnie to me

The winds will blow over the ocean
The winds will blow over the sea
The winds will blow over the ocean
To bring back my Bonnie to me

Bring back, bring back
Bring back my Bonnie to me, to me
Bring back, bring back
Bring back my Bonnie to me

Bring back, bring back
Oh, bring back my Bonnie to me


....and that's all I have to say about that.
Ok class todays assignment is "What does tropical storm bonnie remind you of?"


my answer: my prom date. got all dressed up waited & waited & waited & she never showed up either
Quoting ElConando:


Been doing that for 2 months.


Yes, I do believe we're going to a downward motion but it will be no where near as strong as what the GFS is predicting. The upward MJO this year has been unusual, every time when it tries to propagate to oct. 3 and 4 it goes right back around to 1 and 2. GFS was saying two weeks ago that a very strong downward pulse like its showing now was to grip the Atlantic yesterday.. never verified.
1281. angiest
Quoting ElConando:


LOL 5 bucks says I know who's gonna post it.


Not much of a bet if we put our money on the same person. :)
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


The tripole looks good.
Quoting StormW:


Who?


I thought you pointed out how the MJO forecast differed from the actual MJO. Im sorry if I misquoted and certianly could have been someone else, Senior Chief Caster.
Quoting superweatherman:
I am starting to see a spin in that Wave of the cost of Pueto Rico and a second one just around 98L was just last night..

For sure an Upper Level Low..
Last nights Windsat shows a lot of vorticity both east and west of PR last night.. some can be attributed to diurnal effects but anything more than about 20miles out cannot.. rain shower movement is linear on radar. Surface Pressures are high..
Not analyzed a wave or surface trough..
keep an eye on it though.. We have already seen the double dip development this year with Alex and TD2
1286. tkeith
I wonder if it's too late to turn those skimmers and drill rigs around...
1287. JamesSA
Did Bonnie go poof on us already? It looks like that little brush across South Florida about finished her off.
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


What we need to remember: downward MJO doesn't kill storms once they're active. Africa will likely retain the upward MJO even if the GFS verifies, that will cause more tropical waves that will both make the sand wetter in Africa and cause less dust, and cause stronger waves to come off Africa. Tis the season.
i think the season is just starting

this is the calm before the storm.

we saw with alex that things will be bad.

Alex was the first Atlantic hurricane in the month of June since Hurricane Allison in 1995 and the strongest in terms of wind speed since Hurricane Alma in 1966. Its barometric pressure recording of 947 mbar (27.96 inches) is the most intense from an Atlantic hurricane in June since Hurricane Audrey, the strongest ever, formed in 1957. Alex is thus the second most intense June Atlantic hurricane overall.[148]
Quoting StormSurgeon:
My Bonnie lies over the ocean
My Bonnie lies over the sea
My Bonnie lies over the ocean
Oh bring back my Bonnie to me

Bring back, bring back
Bring back my Bonnie to me, to me
Bring back, bring back
Bring back my Bonnie to me

The winds will blow over the ocean
The winds will blow over the sea
The winds will blow over the ocean
To bring back my Bonnie to me

Bring back, bring back
Bring back my Bonnie to me, to me
Bring back, bring back
Bring back my Bonnie to me

Bring back, bring back
Oh, bring back my Bonnie to me


....and that's all I have to say about that.

Coolness. :)
1291. fmbill
Not sure if this has been posted yet, but I thought it was amazing how accurate yesterday's 18z GFDL model was.

072210 18z GFDL
Quoting tkeith:
I wonder if too late to turn those skimmers and drill rigs around...


Best to keep em in till it passes. Never know if the ULL may move further West.
For all of those calling Bonnie a downer and disappointed that there isn't a CAT 5 headed somewhere, I hope a storm affects your house and only your house, maybe then you'll be happy. I thought this was a blog for people fascinated by weather not one for people who enjoy suffering, misery and destruction of others. That being said, I hope the rest of the season is truly a bust with nothing else forming again with the exception of that one destructive storm directly over your houses! What a bunch of immature whiny little brats!
1294. tkeith
Quoting ElConando:


Best to keep em in till it passes. Never know if the ULL may move further West.
you're probably right...
IMO we have a 60 day window to have a hyperactive season. I just don't think it is going to happen. I hope the forecasters are right and it's not a bust. The public needs credibility. Don't want to see anymore cry wolf scenarios.
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
A real downer:





If this happens, early August will probably be a bust....
teddy, where does it take it to? a conus trheater?
1299. Prgal
Quoting leelee75k:
For all of those calling Bonnie a downer and disappointed that there isn't a CAT 5 headed somewhere, I hope a storm affects your house and only your house, maybe then you'll be happy. I thought this was a blog for people fascinated by weather not one for people who enjoy suffering, misery and destruction of others. That being said, I hope the rest of the season is truly a bust with nothing else forming again with the exception of that one destructive storm directly over your houses! What a bunch of immature whiny little brats!


I agree and give you a standing ovation!
1300. tkeith
-_-
Quoting robert88:
IMO we have a 60 day window to have a hyperactive season. I just don't think it is going to happen. I hope the forecasters are right and it's not a bust. The public needs credibility. Don't want to see anymore cry wolf scenarios.


Read post 1288, and 1280.
Quoting MiamiWarnings:
teddy, where does it take it to? a conus trheater?


Way to far out to determine that.
I was laughing at Puerto Rico blob but maybe not buoy station at Farardo PR winds have gone from the nw to west to wsw slight pressure drop and look at the radar looks to be a little spin north of the island. This might be or last hurrah's for a week or so.
Quoting leelee75k:
For all of those calling Bonnie a downer and disappointed that there isn't a CAT 5 headed somewhere, I hope a storm affects your house and only your house, maybe then you'll be happy. I thought this was a blog for people fascinated by weather not one for people who enjoy suffering, misery and destruction of others. That being said, I hope the rest of the season is truly a bust with nothing else forming again with the exception of that one destructive storm directly over your houses! What a bunch of immature whiny little brats!


Well that is true, but nothing to be fascinated about with Bonnie. We get excited because we get to learn about it. No vet wants to see a cat sick, but the opportunity to make them better gets them excited. If the cat never got sick in the first place, a vets life would be boring, huh!
Quoting leelee75k:
For all of those calling Bonnie a downer and disappointed that there isn't a CAT 5 headed somewhere, I hope a storm affects your house and only your house, maybe then you'll be happy. I thought this was a blog for people fascinated by weather not one for people who enjoy suffering, misery and destruction of others. That being said, I hope the rest of the season is truly a bust with nothing else forming again with the exception of that one destructive storm directly over your houses! What a bunch of immature whiny little brats!


Well said!
Quoting StormSurgeon:
My Bonnie lies over the ocean
My Bonnie lies over the sea
My Bonnie lies over the ocean
Oh bring back my Bonnie to me

Bring back, bring back
Bring back my Bonnie to me, to me
Bring back, bring back
Bring back my Bonnie to me

The winds will blow over the ocean
The winds will blow over the sea
The winds will blow over the ocean
To bring back my Bonnie to me

Bring back, bring back
Bring back my Bonnie to me, to me
Bring back, bring back
Bring back my Bonnie to me

Bring back, bring back
Oh, bring back my Bonnie to me


....and that's all I have to say about that.


lol...lol
Quoting robert88:
IMO we have a 60 day window to have a hyperactive season. I just don't think it is going to happen. I hope the forecasters are right and it's not a bust. The public needs credibility. Don't want to see anymore cry wolf scenarios.
Based on what? Seriously. There is no forecast that will give you an accurate prediction of what conditions are going to like in late September, per se.
Quoting leelee75k:
For all of those calling Bonnie a downer and disappointed that there isn't a CAT 5 headed somewhere, I hope a storm affects your house and only your house, maybe then you'll be happy. I thought this was a blog for people fascinated by weather not one for people who enjoy suffering, misery and destruction of others. That being said, I hope the rest of the season is truly a bust with nothing else forming again with the exception of that one destructive storm directly over your houses! What a bunch of immature whiny little brats!


Easy there leelee... Not all are wishing for that unfortunate storm.. Most are hoping to be able to forecast accuratly where, when and why storms form.
There are a few that have idiotic fantasies about the big event. not all.
Bonnie's leaving Florida. Its center is just about to move off shore into the GOM.
1293.

One thing you are going to have to keep in mind if that no one on this blog has the ability to control the weather. Makes it a lot easier to blog here if you keep that in mind.
Quoting StormW:


No...Just kidding. It was me.


Dang you... Im old enough.. I think I have Alzheimers and now I got you messing with me.
Not a good future for Bonnie.



1313. Prgal
Quoting RainyEyes:


Well that is true, but nothing to be fascinated about with Bonnie. We get excited because we get to learn about it. No vet wants to see a cat sick, but the opportunity to make them better gets them excited. If the cat never got sick in the first place, a vets life would be boring, huh!


Nothing to be fascinated about with Bonnie? Tell that to the hundreds of people who were affected with pre-Bonnie here in the east side of PR. Roads are down, rivers flooded, people who lost their houses...tell that to them.
1314. pottery
Good afternoon.
If it was me, I would keep one eye on Bonnie and that friendly ULL, that seem to have developed an Intimate Relationship.
A lot of Intimate Relationships fall apart, then all hell breaks loose..........
1315. wxhatt
There is as much as 30 to 35 knots of Shear affecting Bonnie

40-50kt shear. Too much.
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Way to far out to determine that.


There is one thing I can determine though and it is going where it belongs.
PRGal - I meant at the moment...right now...current radar. lighen up!
Quoting Sfloridacat5:
Bonnie's leaving Florida. Its center is just about to move off shore into the GOM.


What storm??? there was a storm?

our afternoon thunderstorms are more worse than Bonnie. but we'll take the quarter inch of rain.. if that..
1320. Parkay
Quoting charlottefl:
Afternoon everyone. Bonnie is exiting the coast very close to where I live. Pressure here at the house is 29.86 and falling. Pretty much a rain event, although in the last 20 or 30 mins the wind has been increasing.


I'm in Port Charlotte as well and I've seen a gust of a whopping 13MPH in the past 30 minutes.

Kinda anticlimactic :)
oh no, for how mcuh longer, met! tehse were not the expecetd predictions DARNET, -_-.
Linkdft

Bonnie made landfall in south Miami-Dade County at 11 a.m. on Friday.

Although South Florida had been expecting potentially severe weather, the storm came and went rather quickly and, other than some isolated heavy downpours, was surprisingly tame.

Some sporadic downpours still might roll through the region this afternoon, the weather service said.

After being weakened by wind shear overnight, Bonnie might lose its center of circulation as it crosses Florida, forecasters said.

If so, they would downgrade it to an open wave, or what amounts to an area of low pressure.

As of 11 a.m. EDT, the core of the system made landfall near Cutler Bay in south Miami-Dade County, but most of its nasty weather had already moved on shore in South Florida, the National Hurricane Center said.


Other than some heavy downpours in some areas and generally gray, murky weather, it wasn't that nasty.
More sporadic downpours still could roll in Friday afternoon, weather specialist Bob Ebaugh of the National Weather Service in Miami said.



BONNIE WAS A BUST. lol
Quoting earthlydragonfly:


What storm??? there was a storm?

our afternoon thunderstorms are more worse than Bonnie. but we'll take the quarter inch of rain.. if that..

That's great news! :)
Quoting tkeith:
I wonder if it's too late to turn those skimmers and drill rigs around...


I agree... think they are leaving unnecessarily....
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Based on what? Seriously. There is no forecast that will give you an accurate prediction of what conditions are going to like in late September, per se.


I think they should of never started with these preseason forecasts. It stirs up too much hype JMO
Quoting StormGoddess:

That's great news! :)


I agree.. We need the rain to keep the fire at bay!!!
See you'll later watch Puerto Rico heads up.
Quoting earthlydragonfly:


What storm??? there was a storm?

our afternoon thunderstorms are more worse than Bonnie. but we'll take the quarter inch of rain.. if that..


that was a normal afternoon rain in the summer
1330. Prgal
Quoting RainyEyes:
PRGal - I meant at the moment...right now...current radar. lighen up!


Well, I love the weather as much as you do...that's why I am here, right? But I agree with Leelee, some people here are upset because nothing happened and that's just sad. I believe that's such an egocentric point of view and they don't even realize the danger this systems brings with them.
Quoting Parkay:


I'm in Port Charlotte as well and I've seen a gust of a whopping 13MPH in the past 30 minutes.

Kinda anticlimactic :)


Never said they were strong, just that the wind had picked up as the center passed ;)
teddy, but those it keep it alibe throughout the entrei run? can you post it's pic?
Quoting earthlydragonfly:


I agree.. We need the rain to keep the fire at bay!!!

Yes, indeed. Bonnie turned out to be a rain blessing. So that's good. :)
Quoting Parkay:


I'm in Port Charlotte as well and I've seen a gust of a whopping 13MPH in the past 30 minutes.

Kinda anticlimactic :)


Were you there during Charley?
Dry air has decreased though.

we are in a down motion

next season everyone gonna laugh at them exepert

because they say its active and the season are a bunch of 2009's

i compare this season
to 1983, 2002, 2006 and 2009
Latest sat pic of Hispanola & PR

Image provided by http://weather.msn.com

WOW1!!!
Anyways Bonnie in my area was not too much to write home about a few 40mph gusts and some minor ponding of water on the roads.
1340. peterj
I usually come on to this site around hurricane season. Sometimes people say things on here that doesnt make sense, such as Bonnie was a disappointment. I think thise who make such statements have never been through a real bad hurricane or seen the destruction up close. I when Andrew hit us and the aftermath was something I will never forget. Going into South Miami-Dade and just seeing blocks of homes completely gone. I for one will take a million Bonnie's before one Andrew or even a half of an Andrew anytime.
leelee

they don't want all that to happen

they are in denial of this weak season
Quoting charlottefl:


Were you there during Charley?


I would ignore that fool. It's almost like you can't post anything without some sort of attack.
Nothing to learn from Bonnie??? Sheesh!!
You truly are not interested in weather and tropical cyclogenesis. Bonnie is fascinating and there are many questions that one can raise and learn from about her, from her start as tropical wave and eventual demise later on today including her relationship with the ull, wind shear and even the baggage she behind as she went through the caribbean.
1345. Prgal
Quoting peterj:
I usually come on to this site around hurricane season. Sometimes people say things on here that doesnt make sense, such as Bonnie was a disappointment. I think thise who make such statements have never been through a real bad hurricane or seen the destruction up close. I when Andrew hit us and the aftermath was something I will never forget. Going into South Miami-Dade and just seeing blocks of homes completely gone. I for one will take a million Bonnie's before one Andrew or even a half of an Andrew anytime.


I agree with you.
I think what all weather fanatics would like to see idealy, is a storm that hits record, defy's all current predictors, and teaches us something but that dies in the ocean, sea, gulf BEFORE hurting on single human, house or even boat. It i fascinating because with each storm, we learn something :) Even the "busts"
Quoting leelee75k:
For all of those calling Bonnie a downer and disappointed that there isn't a CAT 5 headed somewhere, I hope a storm affects your house and only your house, maybe then you'll be happy. I thought this was a blog for people fascinated by weather not one for people who enjoy suffering, misery and destruction of others. That being said, I hope the rest of the season is truly a bust with nothing else forming again with the exception of that one destructive storm directly over your houses! What a bunch of immature whiny little brats!


I have learned that simply because my house and family is not effected does not mean someone else is not effected, I won't downplay effects of any weather or mock a system especially when I have been through miserable weather experiences myself.
Quoting ElConando:


LOL 5 bucks says I know who's gonna post it.
Surprise!


Do I win something?
#1337 {{{Finn}}}} good to see you here!!!


looks like there is an anticyclone over or near the center of circulation in the Puerto Rican wave.
Wave near PR could develope this weekend. This should follow Bonnie WNW.
Jeff Masters said on WWL radio that it has a 70% chance of getting stronger once in the gom
Quoting seflagamma:


I agree... think they are leaving unnecessarily....


You couldn't be more wrong IMO. 6-8 ft seas could with the kind of winds they are going to see could kill someone out in a boat, they need to get out of the way. See marine forecast below. This is if it doesn't strengthen any more, then it gets worse.

Saturday
Tropical storm conditions expected. Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots becoming east and increasing to 35 to 40 knots with gusts to around 55 knots in the afternoon. Seas building to 4 to 6 feet. Bays and coastal waterways very rough. Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Storm tides rising to 4 to 5 feet through the afternoon.

Saturday Night
Tropical storm conditions expected. Southeast winds 35 to 40 knots with gusts to around 55 knots. Seas 6 to 8 feet. Bays and coastal waterways very rough. Showers likely and scattered thunderstorms. Storm tides 3 to 4 feet.
The wave is also in a favorable environment.
this season has peaked
Quoting RainyEyes:
I think what all weather fanatics would like to see idealy, is a storm that hits record, defy's all current predictors, and teaches us something but that dies in the ocean, sea, gulf BEFORE hurting on single human, house or even boat. It i fascinating because with each storm, we learn something :) Even the "busts"

That sounds like a fabulous idea! :)
Quoting tropicfreak:
The wave is also in a favorable environment.


it will die

too much dust and wind
Thanks for the update on WWL radio in New Orleans Dr. Masters!
1359. Prgal
Quoting sporteguy03:


I have learned that simply because my house and family is not effected does not mean someone else is not effected, I won't downplay effects of any weather or mock a system especially when I have been through miserable weather experiences myself.


Yayy, another standing ovation for you too!
Not saying this is gonna be a year like 2004. But the first storm didn't form then till Aug 31st, and they had 15 that season I believe. We're still a little ahead of the game, and not quite in the heart of the season.
1361. Parkay
Quoting charlottefl:


Were you there during Charley?

I was in Cape Coral. I watched him make that early turn into my area and then the last minute jog to the west that kept the eye from stomping right over my house.

That's why I took some precautionary measures and fueled up on propane & gas. Charley snuck up on me, that's not gonna happen again.
WOW we have bustcaster out too and peakedcaster out
Quoting Jeff9641:


I would ignore that fool. It's almost like you can't post anything without some sort of attack.
...like this one?

I don't even know whom you are talking about, nor do I care.
Some posts could use a "Ctrl-a" and a "Delete" sometime before clicking "Post Comment"
{{{gams}}}
bonnie is poof
Quoting fallinstorms:


it will die

too much dust and wind



now this is a ture downcaster
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Nah, the metro mover was up and working so I just decided to take that, LOL. I was up until the early morning last night (2 AM I believe) and there wasn't much in the way of activity except for the occasional passing shower. The weather started to "deteriorate" in the morning around 6AM. After that I recorded 2.04 inches of rain and some gusts reaching 35 knots.


Good. so nothing really severe i take from that answer.

i just wanna say that your predication was more accurate
than most on the blog (including my own) with the further
north landfall.

you did state a SFLA landfall and you were right.
I thought you deserved Props today!

Even StormW said he thought the Miami area was
the furthest N Bonnie would make landfall. So Good Job!

i was right on with intensity but further south than you were
in my track thinking.

Glad to see the weather was not too bad there for ya though.
One more landfall to go now.

1368. pottery
Quoting Hardcoreweather2010:
Jeff Masters said on WWL radio that it has a 70% chance of getting stronger once in the gom

....and I would tend to listen to him instead of some other 'forecasters' on this blog.
Quoting atmoaggie:
Surprise!


Do I win something?


You win a 2011 Pontiac G- oh wait...
1370. hydrus
Quoting charlottefl:


Were you there during Charley?
Charley was a fast mover too. And well over 100 mph stronger. Messed up my life for a couple years.
Wow July 23rd and people want to write the season off already lol


Guess I know who is next on my ignore list
Bonnie is no more...it is a TD now.
i am a hurricaneseasonisovercaster
Well I got a couple of 41 mph gusts this afternoon...LOL! That pressure gradient was as strong as advertised up here in central FL.

Bonnie's circulation is falling apart as it crosses the SW FL coast. It's very close to being an open trough.
#1353 but vike, I agree if they receive Tropical Storm winds. they need to get out of there.. but I am not so sure now Bonnie is going to even go that direction or ramp up.....

but better safe than sorry when it comes to saving lives.
Quoting Hurricanes101:
Wow July 23rd and people want to write the season off already lol


Guess I know who is next on my ignore list


because it is over

everything is too horrible for a storm

we will have maybe one, maybe one storm

1377. 7544
bonnie was a dud but opened peoples eyes on where stroms may take a path this year cant say it was like drill cause most people just ignored this when on to a new system now
Quoting 69Viking:


You couldn't be more wrong IMO. 6-8 ft seas could with the kind of winds they are going to see could kill someone out in a boat, they need to get out of the way. See marine forecast below. This is if it doesn't strengthen any more, then it gets worse.

Saturday
Tropical storm conditions expected. Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots becoming east and increasing to 35 to 40 knots with gusts to around 55 knots in the afternoon. Seas building to 4 to 6 feet. Bays and coastal waterways very rough. Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Storm tides rising to 4 to 5 feet through the afternoon.

Saturday Night
Tropical storm conditions expected. Southeast winds 35 to 40 knots with gusts to around 55 knots. Seas 6 to 8 feet. Bays and coastal waterways very rough. Showers likely and scattered thunderstorms. Storm tides 3 to 4 feet.

Thats a coastal forecast out to 20nm they are farther out
MIDDLE GULF BETWEEN 85W AND 90W
1030 AM CDT FRI JUL 23 2010

TROPICAL STORM WARNING N OF 25N


THIS AFTERNOON
S OF 27N W OF 97W E TO SE WINDS 15 TO 20 KT.
SEAS 5 TO 7 FT. ELSEWHERE NE TO E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 2 TO 4
FT. SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF 25N.

TONIGHT THROUGH SUN
N OF 25N NE TO E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT
INCREASING TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 90 NM NE
QUADRANT AND 50 NM SE AND NW QUADRANTS AND 20 NM SW QUADRANT.
HIGHEST WINDS 35 KT GUSTS 45 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT GUSTS 55 KT
LATE SAT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN AREA OF TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 16 FT NE OF CENTER. WINDS
DIMINISHING TO SE 15 TO 20 KT SUN NIGHT. SEAS SUBSIDING TO 4 TO
6 FT LATE SUN NIGHT. ELSEWHERE NE TO E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT
INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KT LATE SAT DIMINISHING TO E TO SE WINDS
10 TO 15 KT SUN NIGHT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT BUILDING 5 TO 8 FT
SUBSIDING TO 3 TO 5 FT SUN NIGHT.
Atmo-

Get's pretty crazy in here sometimes.. Just wish people would take a sec and breathe before trashing others.

Quoting atmoaggie:
...like this one?

I don't even know whom you are talking about, nor do I care.
Some posts could use a "Ctrl-a" and a "Delete" sometime before clicking "Post Comment"
South Florida Radar:

As i understand it we are near the numbers for a normal season so far. So we will see the season ramping up in a few weeks.
Quoting fallinstorms:
we are in a down motion

next season everyone gonna laugh at them exepert

because they say its active and the season are a bunch of 2009's

i compare this season
to 1983, 2002, 2006 and 2009

*Ignore User*
We are not in August or September yet typically the heart and worst part of the season with the greastest possibility of a major hurricane, last year we had 4 storms in August in a below average year what happens if this year we get 4 systems in August hitting land?
1384. Patrap
WWL NewsRadio With Spuds Mckenzie?
Quoting pottery:

....and I would tend to listen to him instead of some other 'forecasters' on this blog.


yea I find it kind of sad how some on here think Bonnie is done, when we probably have not seen her at her strongest yet

I have learned to never trust a system in the Eastern Gulf of Mexico. Those who bash the storm fail to realize that even a storm like this will cause problems for the oil spill.
Quoting pottery:

....and I would tend to listen to him instead of some other 'forecasters' on this blog.


Listened to him a few times on the radio shows. He's very good at them.
Quoting 7544:
bonnie was a dud but opened peoples eyes on where stroms may take a path this year cant say it was like drill cause most people just ignored this when on to a new system now
Oh? I think it was just like drill.

Wait, whom is drill?
the mjo is down, so bonnie will only stay a depression, she will not go over 40 winds.
Quoting txag91met:
Bonnie is no more...it is a TD now.


very much incorrect, she still retains the name unless she becomes an open wave
1390. Drakoen
This hurricane season is already above average with 2 named storms. A typical season does not see their first named storm untill August 1st or so.
Yeah, can't say I ever want to be in another one that strong again.

Quoting hydrus:
Charley was a fast mover too. And well over 100 mph stronger. Messed up my life for a couple years.
Don't quote fallingstorms.. just ignore and report.
lol BP running like chickens for no reason

they act like bonnie is 5
Quoting pottery:

....and I would tend to listen to him instead of some other 'forecasters' on this blog.


Exactly... Not many if any of the forecasters here flown through a hurricane.... Much less into many hurricanes like Dr. Masters
1395. JamesSA
1335: That ULL is a thing of beauty in this instance. It may be the difference Bonnie the poof-cane and another Katrina. Louisiana and Mississippi do not need another major right now.



Bonnie is a real mess and I don't think she has time or conditions to reorganize much, which is a very good thing.
Quoting earthlydragonfly:


Exactly... Not many if any of the forecasters here flown through a hurricane.... Much less into many hurricanes like Dr. Masters


No, but I have chased many in my 20 years of forecasting.
Looks like a bit of rain across the FL panhandle over to NOLA with Bonnie.
Quoting charlottefl:
Not saying this is gonna be a year like 2004. But the first storm didn't form then till Aug 31st, and they had 15 that season I believe. We're still a little ahead of the game, and not quite in the heart of the season.



What????? the same 2004 I remember???
Hurricane Alex formed on July 31st
Hurricane Charlie, remember him, formed Aug 9th 2004

H. Daniel 8/14
Francis 8/25
Gaston 8/27


should I go on..we had 5 hurricanes (not tropical storms but hurricanes) before the end of August in 2004..

I don't mean to be rude just wanted the facts correct for those that may not know.
Quoting StormW:


What's it peeking at? I wanna look!




this open the door some
1401. centex
Quoting txag91met:
Bonnie is no more...it is a TD now.
Yes, but it's still TD Bonnie, the name stays I guess out of respect.
My bad long day at work. That was supposed to say July 31st :) Must have August on the brain...

Quoting seflagamma:



What????? the same 2004 I remember???
Hurricane Alex formed on July 31st
Hurricane Charlie, remember him, formed Aug 9th 2004

H. Daniel 8/14
Francis 8/25
Gaston 8/27


should I go on..we had 5 hurricanes (not tropical storms but hurricanes) before the end of August in 2004..

I don't mean to be rude just wanted the facts correct for those that may not know.
this season will be a 2007 without felix and dean

every storm will be a meliisa, ingrid or karen
1404. peterj
News is talking about the the two other waves. I just hope I get over this cold before and if they get here. I hope Bonnie is the end of it. The Dolphins start training camp next week. And we need good weather.
Quoting Drakoen:
This hurricane season is already above average with 2 named storms. A typical season does not see their first named storm untill August 1st or so.


Nah but we don't want anyone talking common sense over here...would ruin the conversation! LOL *eyes rolling*
Quoting Hurricanes101:


yea I find it kind of sad how some on here think Bonnie is done, when we probably have not seen her at her strongest yet

I have learned to never trust a system in the Eastern Gulf of Mexico. Those who bash the storm fail to realize that even a storm like this will cause problems for the oil spill.


Storms under heavy shear have known to form and strengthen, so maybe. I do agree there is a decent chance that if it is now a TD it will go back up to at least a TS. There are a few things I want to see before I would think it is a possibility.
Quoting seflagamma:
#1353 but vike, I agree if they receive Tropical Storm winds. they need to get out of there.. but I am not so sure now Bonnie is going to even go that direction or ramp up.....

but better safe than sorry when it comes to saving lives.

A Strong cold front in the winter bring much worse winds and weather in the Gulf. Smaller vessels should head for shore but the ships and rigs would have no problem. But being in the spotlight...
1409. breald
Did Bonnie cross Fl a little more north? It looks that way to me.
Quoting Hurricanes101:


very much incorrect, she still retains the name unless she becomes an open wave




i hate too be a downcaster but i have a feeling that it has be come a open wave and yes i am a open wave caster
000
WTNT33 KNHC 232032
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032010
500 PM EDT FRI JUL 23 2010

...BONNIE WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.2N 81.9W
ABOUT 485 MI...780 KM ESE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM S OF FT. MYERS FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA AND THE
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* DESTIN FLORIDA TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA...INCLUDING LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.9 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30
KM/HR. THIS GENERAL TRACK WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS. BONNIE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER
THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AND REACH THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST LATE SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASE TO NEAR 35 MPH...55
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. BONNIE COULD REGAIN TROPICAL STORM
STRENGTH WHEN IT MOVES OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE IN SOUTH FLORIDA WHILE
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS MAINLY IN SQUALLS WILL LIKELY BEGIN
ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
ON SATURDAY.

RAINFALL...BONNIE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN
LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN ALABAMA...SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...AND THE FAR
WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS
OF 5 INCHES. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THIS EVENING.

STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE
GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT OF
WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL ON THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA/ROBERTS
Quoting StormGoddess:
Looks like a bit of rain across the FL panhandle over to NOLA with Bonnie.

Yes we have had a couple of little storms pass through - and still rumbling. Cooled things off!
ALoha My Friends -
Glad to see bonnie didn't do anything last night.
My home in Pompano Beach should be intact!
ULL Seems to be keeping her in check....
1414. wxhatt
Quoting StormW:


Aye...peoples is forgettin...October should be above the norm.


Wow if Oct. is an active season this year then the east coast should be wary as well. More fronts to pull them poleward.
1415. Levi32
Watch for home-grown mischief off the Carolinas or near Bermuda late next week, and then again during the first week of August off the SE coast and in the northern Gulf of Mexico.

A couple of troughs will get stuck over the Canadian Maritimes between the Atlantic ridge and the central US ridge, and then slowly lift out. These systems will drop surface fronts down south which will get draped off the southeast US coast and stall. Such a pattern can support homegrown mischief under the nose of the upper ridge where warm-core lows can develop along the old front. The 2nd trough during the first week of August could cause low pressure to back away as far southwest as the northern gulf, where things could sit and bubble.

ECMWF and GFS 8-10 day 500mb height means:



GFS is seeing the 2nd round of mischief strongly in 12 days:


Still sunny here in ecfl.
Nowcast as of 3:15 PM EDT on July 23, 2010
Now
Most of the activity is now located over central Florida where squalls have been observed with wind gusts of 20 to 30 knots. A large squall that had prompted a special marine warning off of the Brevard County coastline will be pushing toward land over the next couple of hours. When it moves onshore...expect conditions to deteriorate quickly with wind gusts of 35 to 40 knots and embedded occasional lightning. Similar conditions are possible in stronger storms and squalls that may develop across east central Florida. As Tropical Storm Bonnie continues to make its way into the Gulf of Mexico... expect plenty of moisture behind it with rain showers to continue well into this evening.
1404. I remember that helmet design was for the dolphins but then they scrapped it.
Quoting gbreezegirl:

Yes we have had a couple of little storms pass through - and still rumbling. Cooled things off!

:)
i dont get what the nhc is see cant they this this TD has turn in too a open wave?
Quoting charlottefl:
My bad long day at work. That was supposed to say July 31st :) Must have August on the brain...



I apologize, I have typos all the time. should have realized that is what you had there.
1422. 7544
wow thats alot of waves lol
1423. JamesSA
Quoting StormW:


Aye...peoples is forgettin...October should be above the norm.

LOL! Yes, and I booked a cruise in the Western Caribbean in early October, fully aware that it might turn out to be "interesting and exciting". Hey, the price was really, really good though.
1424. angiest
Quoting Hardcoreweather2010:
Jeff Masters said on WWL radio that it has a 70% chance of getting stronger once in the gom


And if she doesn't strengthen people will call the forecast a bust, when of course there was a 30% chance of no strengthening. Some people don't (or refuse to) understand how statistics work.
Quoting StormW:


What's it peeking at? I wanna look!


I always knew you were a dirty, old man... ;-)
Quoting centex:
Yes, but it's still TD Bonnie, the name stays I guess out of respect.


Or just in case it comes back.
What do we think of the area over the Dominican Republic? Could there be any chance with that?
Its Beer-30
I'm heading home.
Behave yourselves!
F5..F5...F5.. THERE!


1430. oakland
Quoting charlottefl:
Not saying this is gonna be a year like 2004. But the first storm didn't form then till Aug 31st, and they had 15 that season I believe. We're still a little ahead of the game, and not quite in the heart of the season.


I agree with you. On average about 60% of the active season happens in August and September. I'm not writing this season off just yet.
Quoting Chicklit:

Still sunny here in ecfl.


Been pouring here!!I've picked up .44 so far in the last hour. Bands seem to be spreading your way.
1432. Patrap
They moved the track from Uptown to The French Quarter..

or 7 miles east
Quoting Baybuddy:
Patrap, is Mothers still open? My wife says it's closed.


Mother's is still open.. but the food is not good.. tourist trap really.. much better po-boys at other places :-)
Quoting oakland:


On average about 60% of the active season happens in August and September. I'm not writing this season off just yet.


actually I would say that percentage is higher
000
WTNT43 KNHC 232032
TCDAT3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032010
500 PM EDT FRI JUL 23 2010

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT BONNIE HAS
BECOME LESS ORGANIZED WHILE MOVING INLAND OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA.
THE CENTER IS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF AN AREA OF SHAPELESS DEEP
CONVECTION. GIVEN THE CURRENT ORGANIZATION AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 30 KNOTS.
THE ENVIRONMENT IN THE GULF OF MEXICO IS FORECAST TO REMAIN
UNFAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING MAINLY DUE TO STRONG WIND SHEAR. WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF THE STATISTICAL MODELS WHICH BRING THE WINDS UP A
LITTLE BIT...NONE OF THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE RESTRENGTHENS BONNIE IN
THE GULF OF MEXICO. BASED ON CONTINUITY AND THE STATISTICAL
MODELS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR SLIGHT STRENGTHENING
BEFORE THE CYCLONE APPROACHES THE NORTH GULF COAST LATE SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...DEGENERATION INTO AN OPEN TROUGH IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

THE CENTER OF BONNIE HAS BEEN RAPIDLY CROSSING THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA ABOUT 300 DEGREES OR WEST-NORTHWEST AT 16 KNOTS DURING
THE PAST FEW HOURS. BONNIE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN WELL-DEFINED
STEERING CURRENTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FLOW BETWEEN A HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE UNITED STATES AND AN UPPER-LOW OVER THE WESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO. THIS PATTERN IS FORECAST TO PERSIST...KEEPING
BONNIE ON THE SAME GENERAL TRACK THROUGH THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS.IF
BONNIE SURVIVES AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE...ONLY A SMALL DECREASE IN
THE CURRENT FORWARD SPEED IS ANTICIPATED. SINCE THE STEERING
CURRENTS ARE WELL DEFINED AND THE GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED
THERE IS A GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 23/2100Z 26.2N 81.9W 30 KT
12HR VT 24/0600Z 27.5N 84.5W 30 KT
24HR VT 24/1800Z 29.0N 87.5W 40 KT
36HR VT 25/0600Z 30.5N 90.0W 35 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 25/1800Z 31.5N 91.0W 25 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 26/1800Z 33.5N 93.0W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96HR VT 27/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER AVILA/ROBERTS
1437. angiest
Quoting sporteguy03:


I have learned that simply because my house and family is not effected does not mean someone else is not effected, I won't downplay effects of any weather or mock a system especially when I have been through miserable weather experiences myself.


For the same reasons I will caution people supposedly not under the gun to keep an eye on a developing system, whereas others will state categorically it will not go to such and such place.
1438. FLdewey
hahaha... this thing is going to be a mere shower off the coast of Nova Scotia and people will still be hanging on to hope.
{{{Oakland}}} good to see you here too.. another one of the old timers back when a storm is near by!
it seem like its a gulf year this year
Quoting tvengineer8:


Mother's is still open.. but the food is not good.. tourist trap really.. much better po-boys at other places :-)

Oh Lord, fine, I have to go eat now. Be back later. lol
Quoting StormW:


Aye...peoples is forgettin...October should be above the norm.
Yes the season is ahead at this point not where I expected from the early very high above normal SST's I was looking for an early ITCZ or MDR storm. 92L was the best but but didn't make it and due to dust and/or shear everything else didn't either. And we are slowly closing in to more normal SST's. Around the islands here we are now pretty much normal and inshore waters probably below normal.. After all the rain the water is "cold" when you get into it. So while I agree we will be above for the year I am thinking it will not be the very active season that was expected.
Quoting tvengineer8:


Mother's is still open.. but the food is not good.. tourist trap really.. much better po-boys at other places :-)
Best food for the money, IMO, in tourist areas, is the Gumbo Shop on Saint Peter.
1444. Levi32
Quoting angiest:


And if she doesn't strengthen people will call the forecast a bust, when of course there was a 30% chance of no strengthening. Some people don't (or refuse to) understand how statistics work.


But then see how easy it is to hide behind a 30% chance? One must ask, what is his forecast? If we're gonna use statistics we should consider the scenario that he finds most likely to occur, the 70% one, to be his forecast. Otherwise, he's not forecasting. His percent chances can be used as a guide to his uncertainty in the forecast, but as a forecaster he's going to have to make the call, one way or the other.
That was it? I'll join with my neighbors in saying that the standard summer day has more rain, more wind, and more lightning.

Boring is good.
THE ENVIRONMENT IN THE GULF OF MEXICO IS FORECAST TO REMAIN
UNFAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING MAINLY DUE TO STRONG WIND SHEAR. WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF THE STATISTICAL MODELS WHICH BRING THE WINDS UP A
LITTLE BIT...NONE OF THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE RESTRENGTHENS BONNIE IN
THE GULF OF MEXICO. BASED ON CONTINUITY AND THE STATISTICAL
MODELS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR SLIGHT STRENGTHENING
BEFORE THE CYCLONE APPROACHES THE NORTH GULF COAST LATE SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...DEGENERATION INTO AN OPEN TROUGH IS ALSO POSSIBLE.
1447. centex
It's been a fairly active early season, normally June is a bust and we get a little in July.
Quoting atmoaggie:
Best food for the money, IMO, in tourist areas, is the Gumbo Shop on Saint Peter.


RIght.. the Gumbo Shop is the best... .
Quoting Tazmanian:
it seem like its a gulf year this year


Hi Taz, yes it does...of all the years to have all the storms in the GOM....this is the year we wish they would go elsewhere...
1450. 10Speed
Quoting robert88:


I think they should of never started with these preseason forecasts. It stirs up too much hype


I agree but don't expect much empathy on this blog.

Until we accumulate a more advanced understanding of weather I personally wish hurricane predicting that's made public would be limited to one month increments. Obviously, we are not knowledgeable to the point of going beyond that yet.

Making full season predictions and then having to "adjust" those predictions more often than not seems a bit ludicrous to me.

Predicting weather events over such a long range is like predicting the NFL standings for Week 16 during the pre-season. Sooooooooooo many unexpected, uncontrollable events can transpire between pre-season and Week 16 that will affect the pre-season predictions. It happens every year.
Quoting Patrap:
Floater - RGB Color Infrared Loop


Pat, under the white clouds, appear yellowish, is that what you are showing with this? If so I still see a circulation correct? learning here. Thanks
HOWEVER...DEGENERATION INTO AN OPEN TROUGH IS ALSO POSSIBLE.


i think its a open trough right now
1453. hydrus
Quoting StormW:


Aye...peoples is forgettin...October should be above the norm.
Historically, October is our worst month in S.W. Florida. More tropical cyclones have hit us during that month than any other.
Is it really at all likely that the dynamical models are all collectively wrong about no strengthening? Really? Even hyper-WRF? I can understand forgetting about the 12 Z GFDL given how badly it handled Bonnie's first 6 hours after initialization...

I think Bonnie will remain a wet-spot. Nothingmore.
1455. 7544
gfs asnd ngp try to develope the pr wave but drops it but brings the remains right to so fla also more rain a coming next week
What's that South of Hispaniola?
1457. centex
Quoting seflagamma:


Hi Taz, yes it does...of all the years to have all the storms in the GOM....this is the year we wish they would go elsewhere...
Early season is west or GOM, that part is normal.
yeah the season will be quiet for a while longer now bonnie was a bust just like I called it just rain with a breeze.next! :)
Quoting hurrtracker1994:
What do we think of the area over the Dominican Republic? Could there be any chance with that?

I looked in some depth
ULL down to 700MB
but surface pressures are high
PR radar show linear rain/squalls movement
good low level convergence and high level divergence
very high shear forcast to the west as the ULL track west
not analyzed as a trough or wave
lots of vorticity on last nights WINDSAT..
Visibel loop showing upper circulation from ULL and low level NE SE windshift.
So... nothing to soon but watch.

1460. hydrus
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
What's that South of Hispaniola?
South America.....HHHHHAAAAAAAAAA!!!...jk ...really...jk.:)
Quoting tvengineer8:


RIght.. the Gumbo Shop is the best... .
Had the fish creole a few weeks back. Was among the best dishes I've ever had.

Right up there with a Napoleon House Muffaletta.
1462. angiest
Quoting Levi32:


But then see how easy it is to hide behind a 30% chance? One must ask, what is his forecast? If we're gonna use statistics we should consider the scenario that he finds most likely to occur, the 70% one, to be his forecast. Otherwise, he's not forecasting. His percent chances can be used as a guide to his uncertainty in the forecast, but as a forecaster he's going to have to make the call, one way or the other.


I draw a distinction between forecasting and prediction that apparently the people in the federal government do not (Storm Prediction Center, Tropical Prediction Center). Dr. Masters' analysis indicates a higher likelihood of some strengthening than no strengthening or even weakening. Thus his forecast is that the storm is likely to strengthen, but may not. That is a forecast. If he said, however, that it *will* strengthen and there are no other options, then he is making a prediction.

That is, at least, where I am coming from.
Quoting hydrus:
South America.....HHHHHAAAAAAAAAA!!!...jk ...really...jk.:)

LOL :D
Quoting atmoaggie:
Is it really at all likely that the dynamical models are all collectively wrong about no strengthening? Really? Even hyper-WRF? I can understand forgetting about the 12 Z GFDL given how badly it handled Bonnie's first 6 hours after initialization...

I think Bonnie will remain a wet-spot. Nothingmore.


Bonnie's Core is currently a bunch of light rain showers.

Bonnie is currently a Td. but wait till it hits that 40KT SHEAR. THAT WILL BE ITS GRAVE.
1465. FLdewey
Bonnie is looking as sad as ever... Hurricane FAIL.
Quoting sailingallover:

I looked in some depth
ULL down to 700MB
but surface pressures are high
PR radar show linear rain/squalls movement
good low level convergence and high level divergence
very high shear forcast to the west as the ULL track west
not analyzed as a trough or wave
lots of vorticity on last nights WINDSAT..
Visibel loop showing upper circulation from ULL and low level NE SE windshift.
So... nothing to soon but watch.



thanks for the info!
Quoting sailingallover:

I looked in some depth
ULL down to 700MB
but surface pressures are high
PR radar show linear rain/squalls movement
good low level convergence and high level divergence
very high shear forcast to the west as the ULL track west
not analyzed as a trough or wave
lots of vorticity on last nights WINDSAT..
Visibel loop showing upper circulation from ULL and low level NE SE windshift.
So... nothing to soon but watch.



Shear could more favorable in around 72 hours.
1468. Prgal
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
What's that South of Hispaniola?


I don't remember which model was it, but a couple of days ago it hinted about the possibility of development south of the DR. I honestly see a circulation north of the DR but I am not an expert so...who knows.
NEW BLOG
Quoting Tazmanian:
HOWEVER...DEGENERATION INTO AN OPEN TROUGH IS ALSO POSSIBLE.


i think its a open trough right now

When's the funeral? Tomorrow?
Quoting sammywammybamy:


Bonnie's Core is currently a bunch of light rain showers.

Bonnie is currently a Td. but wait till it hits that 40KT SHEAR. THAT WILL BE ITS GRAVE.
Ummm, I could be wrong, but I think that 40knot area of shear is moving along as fast as Bonnie's core and will remain ahead of her. But, still think she'll not be intensifying...
1472. IKE
NEW BLOG!
Quoting atmoaggie:
Had the fish creole a few weeks back. Was among the best dishes I've ever had.

Right up there with a Napoleon House Muffaletta.


Had fish creole once and it was good stuff. Too bad I got heartburn after.
1474. centex
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

LOL :D
We should be more sensitive to tropical waves moving west through Caribbean. I think it's supose to eventually move into bay of Campeche before turning N into S Texas. Local NWS mets watching it for rain mid/late next week.
Quoting Tazmanian:
HOWEVER...DEGENERATION INTO AN OPEN TROUGH IS ALSO POSSIBLE.


i think its a open trough right now

Look at the vis sat loop. there is an obvious but naked LLC at 26N 81.7W or right about over FT Myers..
its done safe to say
Is it just me, or does it look like development starting again around the Dominican Republic. Since Bonnie is gone, the waters are going to warm rapidly again. She didn't even cause clouds or flooding.