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Bonnie Dies; Rampaging Flash Floods Kill 4 in Germany

By: Jeff Masters 4:10 PM GMT on May 30, 2016

Tropical Depression Bonnie was declared post-tropical by NHC at 11 am EDT Monday, but the remains of Bonnie will continue to bring additional rainfall of 1 - 3" to eastern South Carolina, eastern North Carolina, and southeast Virginia through Wednesday. As of Monday morning, Bonnie had already brought total rainfall of more than 8 inches over portions of south-central South Carolina. Bonnie made landfall on the coast of South Carolina just east of Charleston at 8:30 am EDT Sunday morning as a tropical depression with top winds of 35 mph. Bonnie spent just 18 hours as a tropical storm, reaching peak intensity of 45 mph sustained winds on Saturday night when the center of the storm lingered over the warm waters of the Gulf Stream.


Figure 1. Two-day rainfall amounts from Bonnie for the period ending at 10 am EDT May 30, 2016.

Bonnie's legacy
The 2016 version of Tropical Storm Bonnie was the seventh incarnation of the storm, which made its first appearance back in 1980. My very first flight into a hurricane with the Hurricane Hunters was into the 1986 version of Hurricane Bonnie, which made landfall on the Upper Texas coast as a Category 1 storm--but wasn't powerful enough to cause notable damage. None of the versions of Bonnie over the years have been strong enough to get the name Bonnie retired, and this year's meager effort assures that there will be an eighth appearance of Bonnie in 2022. Only five other Atlantic storms have had more appearances than Bonnie--Arlene with ten (1959 - TS; 1963 - H2; 1967 - H1; 1971 - TS; 1981 - TS; 1987 - H1; 1993 - TS; 1999 - TS; 2005 - TS; 2011 - TS), Florence with nine (1953 - H3; 1954 - TS; 1960 - TS; 1964 - TS; 1988 - H1; 1994 - H2; 2000 - H1; 2006 - H1; 2012 - TS), Cindy with eight (1959 - H1; 1963 - H1; 1981 - TS; 1987 - TS; 1993 - TS; 1999 - H4; 2005 - H1; 2011 - TS), Dolly with eight (1953 – H1; 1954 – H1; 1968 - H1; 1974 - TS; 1996 - H1; 2002 - TS; 2008 - H2; 2014 - TS), and Frances with eight (1961 - H3; 1968 - TS; 1976 - H3; 1980 - H3; 1986 - H1; 1992 - H1; 1998 - TS; 2004 - H4, RETIRED). Thanks go to wunderground member Mark Cole for these stats.

Flash flooding in Germany kills four
A stationary low pressure system over Germany has led to massive amounts of hail and torrential rains in heavy thunderstorms, killing four people. Rainfall amounts in excess of four inches in two hours fell in some regions of southwest Germany, and this water was channeled and concentrated into narrow valleys upstream from the hard-hit town of Braunsbach in Baden-Württemberg's north. Some truly spectacular/frightening videos have come from that town:


Video 1. The flood waters from this video look sped up, but judging by the frequency of the emergency lights on the fire car being swept away and the way the water moves farther upstream, you can see that the speed is real.


Video 2. More incredible footage of cars being swept through the streets of Braunsbach in the May 30, 2016 flash flood.

The low will remain stationary over Germany during the next few days thanks to a jet stream weather pattern that has remained "stuck" in place, so additional extreme flash flooding is possible this week. Thanks go to wunderground contributor Michael Theusner for this information.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane Flood

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Wow, incredible flash flooding.
Woah, Germany is having it's own share of problems as well. That flash flooding looks very serious
12z GFS, CMC, and ECMWF all running now.
Thanks for the Update Dr. Masters.....
Repost from last blog.
30-50% chance on development.
Thanks for the update. Unbelievable, coming from this part of Germany I think. Barbamz will probably tell us more when she's back. That's an emergency vehicle passing by with flashing lights in the first seconds of the 2nd video... Crazy water totals I presume...
- See Dr. Jennifer Francis Youtube videos about stuck weather patterns attribution studies.

Quoting 5. tiggerhurricanes2001:

Repost from last blog.
30-50% chance on development.


We'll have to keep our eye on it, especially since the GOM produced Wilma back in 2005.
Quoting 5. tiggerhurricanes2001:

Repost from last blog.
30-50% chance on development.
good graphic :)
Wow. Don't want to think about that kind of flooding occurring anywhere at all .... but seems I've seen more than enough of these videos of late .... Italy, the central US, et al ..... :o/

Later.
Quoting 3. Camerooski:

12z GFS, CMC, and ECMWF all running now.
I note the EPac twin of our WCAR storm is still in the models as well ... we may have two systems to watch if the models pan out ....
Wow! Those torrents are unreal and scary! I hope there won't be any more deaths associated with the flooding in Germany.The water was moving those vehicles as if they were plastic toy cars at high speeds.
What is the wind shear in the GOM right now?
As of right now.. dry air in the NW carribean from the GOM will hamper any quick development down in the carribean into early next week.. chances of development by next Monday morning are about 20%
Quoting 7. birdsrock2016:



We'll have to keep our eye on it, especially since the GOM produced Wilma back in 2005.

The GOM has seen some early June/July hurricanes before. Most recently, Hurricane Dolly in 2008 and Hurricane Alex in 2010. The latter of which was nearly a major hurricane. If shear drops to low levels - a storm could take advantage of these very warm waters and intensify.

The main difference in 2016 aside from other "cold AMO" years is how warm most of the Atlantic is. Only the tropical and far North Atlantic isn't well above average in SSTs.
Quoting 9. BahaHurican:

Wow. Don't want to think about that kind of flooding occurring anywhere at all .... but seems I've seen more than enough of these videos of late .... Italy, the central US, et al ..... :o/

Later.
That's partly because there are 2.5 billion recording devices now readily available to record that most keep in their pocket.

Just 20 years ago we had 1/8 that number.

Our exposure has exponentially grown on every media front.


Drove through the lake Okeechobee storm last night and saw some incredible sights and some of the most impressive lightning I've seen in a long time.

Happy Memorial Day everyone!
The GFS model is running and is the only model that doesn't show a low pressure, it just shows rain... The GFS was off with Bonnie, and I think they are off again.
GFS has been pretty consistent on a heavy threat for the Bahamas, doesn't really favor a Florida or GOM entrance.
Problem with with next storm will be all about the shear lowering or not making it that far South. We don't do well with shear forecasts that far out. Model agreement would go a long way to clearing this us. Think 50/50 chances are right on. Find it hard to believe that shear will drop far enough to get anything but a weak TS.
12Z GFS so far.... And is that another system way out near Bermuda?
Quoting 16. Camerooski:

The GFS model is running and is the only model that doesn't show a low pressure, it just shows rain... The GFS was off with Bonnie, and I think they are off again.


Not true.. Euro shows nothing also out to 5-7 days.. but after 5 days it doesn't matter what a model shows..they change every 6-12hrs depending on the model. We don't take anything for granted after the 5 day mark
22. vis0
Quoting 311. Grothar:



I'd blob it, if I could see it!!!! If you all remember last week I wrote I had a difficult time blobbing Bonnie, but that "next week" I would have something better in the Caribbean. Well, just wait a couple of days.
New Blob category? ...Banshee blob (ethereal like)?


MEANWHILE...

If Bonnie retires is that incarnation 7b?
2nd Bonnie always seemed to have 2 swirls (from south of Bahamas till as i looked at the goes-east_4km_three_color testing via Colorado state university.

i Deleted image as in my haste the 2nd frame had the circle to far NNE as the 2nd swirl. The 2nd swirl was further SSE that i marked as it appeared to go near Tampa Bay, FL. hit the front then scooted N then NNE to blend with Bonnie and might be that 2nd low pressure some mentioned they observed on the previous Dr. Masters/Henson blogbyte.



yellow arrow represents its forward motion (if i included all frames...tried but received a NO DATA from WxU so just posted 3 imgs instead of a AniGIF of ~100 frames) maybe an atmospheric eddy since the new atmos v2.0a concentrates moisture over one area thus drying up (blocking) moisture elsewhere...its science, thus fun to learn!
When I lived in Germany, these systems were referred to as Zugstrasse VB. They have been studied for years, although this type of flooding is not that common in that part of Germany.
Quoting 21. scottsvb:



Not true.. Euro shows nothing also out to 5-7 days.. but after 5 days it doesn't matter what a model shows..they change every 6-12hrs depending on the model. We don't take anything for granted after the 5 day mark
Not sure what your talking about. The Euro has shown a TS hitting FL the last 3 runs...
Just posted a blog on my updated 2016 Atlantic hurricane season prediction. Like most of you, I believe we have an active season ahead.
20. tiggerhurricanes2001
12:36 PM EDT on May 30, 2016
Yes the GFS has been pretty consistent in showing a storm north of P.R for several runs now and has not dropped the idea so it is something to watch for.The Euro and CMC had it also for a time but I think they have since dropped it.We could have the C and D name storms before July and it has happened in the past (2012).
Quoting 24. Camerooski:

Not sure what your talking about. The Euro has shown a TS hitting FL the last 3 runs...


in 10 days? it showed that the previous 3 runs in 10 days... in a week it might show it in 10 days still. We look at what models show in the near term from 3-5 days.. after that it comes sketchy.. also we prefer the GFS/Euro model and see what is performing better and has a better handel of a system. Until something actually develops..we don't really go out more than 3 days...and once it develops, we go out 5 days and use a blend of both models! It's ok to look at stuff 6days-10 days..but always note.. things change from run to run on the models every 6-12 hrs
Quoting 23. Grothar:

When I lived in Germany, these systems were referred to as Zugstrasse VB. They have been studied for years, although this time of flooding is not that common in that part of Germany.


wo haben Sie gelebt
Is this the same system that was expected in the nw carib?
Quoting 24. Camerooski:

Not sure what your talking about. The Euro has shown a TS hitting FL the last 3 runs...
I wonder if the epac system being in probably more favourable conditions will beat up on the nw carib system>?
Quoting 10. BahaHurican:

I note the EPac twin of our WCAR storm is still in the models as well ... we may have two systems to watch if the models pan out ....
It will be interesting to see what the 12Z Euro is showing. Whenever the GFS and the Euro agree on something it needs to be watched.
But it's way too early to get excited or call off your vacation to the Gulf Coast or Florida in 10 days.

10 day model accuracy is very low.
No mention of WKC carribean hurricane next week? Surprise surprise....
Gro, any ETA or rough estimates, for when a blob watch may be issued? Blob seed being sheared but holding nicely together. Good sign. Disturbance, blobette, blobcon1/2/3, invest, and then on upward. Word on the oceans is that Texas has introduced your ground breaking blob research into their science programs. NHC waiting to see how congress responds to this new terminology. Looking good, blob blob blob. Congress will approve it because, well, it sounds a whole lot like them.
Six now dead from Texas flooding. We need to be better informed and less entertained in America. Sigh, very sad.
Quoting 34. DeepSeaRising:

Six now dead from Texas flooding. We need to be better informed and less entertained in America. Sigh, very sad.


There is damage from Bonnie too here is SC...lots of flooding...saw pics of cars submerged on I-95...not sure if there are any deaths here...
Quoting 33. DeepSeaRising:

Gro, any ETA or rough estimates, for when a blob watch may be issued? Blob seed being sheared but holding nicely together. Good sign. Disturbance, blobette, blobcon1/2/3, invest, and then on upward. Word on the oceans is that Texas has introduced your ground breaking blob research into their science programs. NHC waiting to see how congress responds to this new terminology. Looking good, blob blob blob. Congress will approve it because, well, it sounds a whole lot like them.


June 4 probably the earliest, but full blob status around June 6. As you can see, the early models all have a system develop in the NW Caribbean and moving NNE. We all know how these go, but I think this one has a pretty good chance.
Quoting 36. Grothar:



June 4 probably the earliest, but full blob status around June 6. As you can see, the early models all have a system develop in the NW Caribbean and moving NNE. We all know how these go, but I think this one has a pretty good chance.


I really do hope not...and if it does...hoping it doesn't travel like Bonnie...we are traveling that week and do not want to fly back in to anything like that....
Quoting 26. washingtonian115:

20. tiggerhurricanes2001
12:36 PM EDT on May 30, 2016
Yes the GFS has been pretty consistent in showing a storm north of P.R for several runs now and has not dropped the idea so it is something to watch for.The Euro and CMC had it also for a time but I think they have since dropped it.We could have the C and D name storms before July and it has happened in the past (2012).

Thanks for clearing that up. Looks like an active season since 2012 so far.
CMC on board, showing a TS come out of Caribbean
Quoting 28. tiggeriffic:



wo haben Sie gelebt


Köln, Heidelberg und Berlin.
Germany floods: Four dead in south-west amid extensive damage
BBC News, 57 minutes ago (short text with mov/pics)

"A level 2 was issued for Netherlands, Belgium and W Germany mainly for excessive convective precipitation.
A level 2 was issued for Bulgaria and E Serbia mainly for large hail and severe wind gusts. (...)"
Quoting 40. Grothar:



Köln, Heidelberg und Berlin.



I took German in HS....a million moons ago...don't remember much...I sucked at conjugating verbs lol...could get around...MAYBE if I visited lol
A huge shout out to all the brave men and women who have served, died, and bravely protected our ideals and freedom around the world. As we hang on the brink of a world on fire, may we never forget, without the brave men and women of the the US armed forces; this world would look much different. We have battled great evil before and defeated it and we will do so again. This Memorial day, may we never forget.
Quoting 39. Camerooski:

CMC on board, showing a TS come out of Caribbean
Quoting 37. tiggeriffic:



I really do hope not...and if it does...hoping it doesn't travel like Bonnie...we are traveling that week and do not want to fly back in to anything like that....

Sure hope not Tigger, but CMC says lets take a trip to the east coast. At this point, i could agree on this predicted track, because this is a common track for June Cyclones.
While I love to track Tropical storms and Hurricanes the last place we need one is a place like the Caribbean or GOM because that almost guarantees a direct hit on land.
Revisited some of the online content regarding an evacuation of South Florida.. not encouraged. Here in NW FL we have a lot of options to get away from the coast, with a lot of country highways available assuming that the freeways will be impassable... Don't think I would want to live anywhere south of Orlando... unless I had a private airstrip, and at least a twin engine aircraft, and a pilot's license.



Quoting 29. 19N81W:

Is this the same system that was expected in the nw carib?



Yes it is
Quoting 43. DeepSeaRising:

A huge shout out to all the brave men and women who have served, died, and bravely protected our ideals and freedom around the world. As we hang on the brink of a world on fire, may we never forget, without the brave men and women of the the US armed forces; this world would look much different. We have battled great evil before and defeated it and we will do so again. This Memorial day, may we never forget.


Great Post DSR! In the meantime, I have discovered veggie burgers and they are amazingly fabulous
Quoting 259. TropicalAnalystwx13:

The forecast setup, with the MJO contributing to the forecast of a Central America gyre, does not favor a consolidated hurricane. It favors a messy, broad system that delivers torrential rains to a large area. Nicole 2010 comes to mind.


Quoting 34. DeepSeaRising:

Six now dead from Texas flooding. We need to be better informed and less entertained in America. Sigh, very sad.


Texas has a history of terrible floods with periods of drought in between. I lived in San Antonio and Corpus Christi for a decent part of my life. I'm also a graduate of U.T.

I remember many terrible floods when I lived there. I also remember times when the Edwards Aquifer was at record low levels along with the area lakes.

There seem to be no in between, seriously. Either it's flooding or there's a water shortage.

Here's the 2002 flood with water pouring out of Canyon Lake in the Texas Hill Country. I personally drove out to the dam and watched this event. The area received 30"-40" of rain in just a few days.

48,000 homes were either damaged or destroyed along with 10 fatalities.





If you look closely you can see the roof of the house just above the water level.
In the event that a tropical system does form, I think track-wise, Andrea (2013) would be a good analog.
Quoting 46. JNFlori30A:

Revisited some of the online content regarding an evacuation of South Florida.. not encouraged. Here in NW FL we have a lot of options to get away from the coast, with a lot of country highways available assuming that the freeways will be impassable... Don't think I would want to live anywhere south of Orlando... unless I had a private airstrip, and at least a twin engine aircraft, and a pilot's license.
Yeah when we went down to South Florida back in April my husband and I had a conversation about evacuations and how people would get out.I mean some of the houses were literally stacked upon each other and the streets weren't big enough to handle mandatory evacuations.South Florida can not afford a major hurricane but it is bound to happen again whether it is in our life time or the next.
+1
Quoting 43. DeepSeaRising:

A huge shout out to all the brave men and women who have served, died, and bravely protected our ideals and freedom around the world. As we hang on the brink of a world on fire, may we never forget, without the brave men and women of the the US armed forces; this world would look much different. We have battled great evil before and defeated it and we will do so again. This Memorial day, may we never forget.
what is the upper level setup to get this thing going?

Quoting 47. wunderkidcayman:



Yes it is
New Invest at EPAC (91E) Has a good shot to develop with the MJO coming to the EPAC.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT MON MAY 30 2016

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Cloudiness and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located about 975 miles south of the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula have become better organized today.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for slow
development, and a tropical depression is likely to form later this
week as the disturbance moves westward or west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain



In the event that a tropical system does form, I think track-wise, Andrea (2013) would be a good analog.
Quoting 41. 999Ai2016:

Germany floods: Four dead in south-west amid extensive damage
BBC News, 57 minutes ago (short text with mov/pics)

"A level 2 was issued for Netherlands, Belgium and W Germany mainly for excessive convective precipitation.
A level 2 was issued for Bulgaria and E Serbia mainly for large hail and severe wind gusts. (...)"


Passing the Netherlands (and now, me - that would be Gouda/Zuid-Holland).
Thundery rains, locally a lot of rain. So pics have emerged with cars into five feet on underpasses. Some trees blown down here and there.
The Netherlands do not experience the adversities that occur in e.g. Germany, because the country has no relief to speak of. It is in truth famously flat, like a pool table. This means orographic forces will not help convectional activities. It also means a big splash of precip does not come crashing down into some narrow valleys but more like oozes across the flats (and some streets) to the rivers or IJsselmeer.
That's a good explanation, it's slow flooding and seawater that's the problem in Netherlands more than flash floods because the nature of the terrain don't allow for fast flowing (of) water inland.
Take a look at these cells (second half of the movie) :
EUMETSAT : Thunderstorms over Europe (video, HD available 720p)
YouTube video's direct link - 3 days animation
It's not kidding right now, rain-wise :
Quoting 58. 999Ai2016:

That's a good explanation, it's slow flooding and seawater that's the problem in Netherlands more than flash floods because the nature of the terrain don't allow for fast flowing water inland.
Take a look at these cells :


Yes, this is one Euro day.. And it isn't over, either. Total stagnation under this huge block.
Thank you for those very interesting reports in the blog heading.
Having been through quite a few flash flood events here in Spain I am sure that the water speeds are real and not speeded up. The plants in speeded up videos look to be vibrating rather than waving in the wind.
I have estimated water speeds in flash floods here at about 40 MPH.

What concerns me about these kinds of things, is that they can and now seem to happen all over the place. Its only a matter of time rather like hurricane strikes before we get a major flash flood disaster in some of the towns built in ravines.
All simply down to heat and water content in the air.
Quoting 52. washingtonian115:

Yeah when we went down to South Florida back in April my husband and I had a conversation about evacuations and how people would get out.I mean some of the houses were literally stacked upon each other and the streets weren't big enough to handle mandatory evacuations.South Florida can not afford a major hurricane but it is bound to happen again whether it is in our life time or the next.


People in South Florida are told to evacuate inland. Anyone on the coast has to leave. There are no mandatory evacuations for inland residents. Remember, Andrew was a Cat 5 and evacuations where not a problem. We re told to run from the water and hide from the wind. Our homes are built to withstand cat 3/4
Quoting 39. Camerooski:

CMC on board, showing a TS come out of Caribbean


You guys are getting excited over nothing right now.. it's too early and the CMC is not a great model.. infact yesterday at the 12Z model had it a Cat 2 going into Tampa a week from yesterday.. Now a week from today it has a TS a week from today and in 6 days (when it was suppose to be a Cat 2) a TD or weak TS. Again models change... and it's best to blend the GFS and Euro out 5 days.
Quoting 61. gator23:


People in South Florida are told to evacuate inland. Anyone on the coast has to leave. There are no mandatory evacuations inland. Remember, Andrew was a Cat 5 and evacuations where not a problem
Andrew was in 1992 before the last big boom of population. Now there's a lot of people who were not there in 1992 or even 2005 when Wilma hit.
yes way too early,and runs will change,lets wait till about the 5th of June and see then.........
Quoting 61. gator23:


People in South Florida are told to evacuate inland. Anyone on the coast has to leave. There are no mandatory evacuations inland. Remember, Andrew was a Cat 5 and evacuations where not a problem
Since Andrew though the population has only climbed.

Philip Klotzbach ‏@philklotzbach May 14 Tampa, FL
Over 2 million people have moved to Florida since the last hurricane made landfall there (Wilma-2005).

Quoting 61. gator23:


People in South Florida are told to evacuate inland. Anyone on the coast has to leave. There are no mandatory evacuations inland. Remember, Andrew was a Cat 5 and evacuations where not a problem


That's what would be 'fun' if Wilmington had to evacuate. Basically two ways inland, I-40 and US-74. Raleigh-Durham is 2 hrs away, Charlotte or Columbia is 4 hrs. In between that is a whole lotta nothing. At least Florida has sizable communities inland.
Quoting 65. washingtonian115:

Since Andrew though the population has only climbed.

Philip Klotzbach ‏@philklotzbach May 14 Tampa, FL
Over 2 million people have moved to Florida since the last hurricane made landfall there (Wilma-2005).



Statewide sure. But the houses are ridiculously well built in south Florida even for the new residents. The danger isnt evacuations its complacency and lack of preparation.
Quoting 63. Geoboy645:

Andrew was in 1992 before the last big boom of population. Now there's a lot of people who were not there in 1992 or even 2005 when Wilma hit.

And there's been approximately 8 centimeters/3 inches worth of global sea level rise since Andrew (1992, I don't know what the local tide gauges numbers are though) :

Big spikes at the end of strong El Nino/La Nina episodes in 1999 and 2011... Not to mention the recent apparent speed-up.
Quoting 66. win1gamegiantsplease:



That's what would be 'fun' if Wilmington had to evacuate. Basically two ways inland, I-40 and US-74. Raleigh-Durham is 2 hrs away, Charlotte or Columbia is 4 hrs. In between that is a whole lotta nothing. At least Florida has sizable communities inland.

Im talking about 10 minutes inland here. In short we tend not do mass evacuations because if u evacuate Miami a storm could shift and hit Orlando. No where to go. People go to shelters. We only evacuate the keys and barrier islands.
Both the 12Z GFS and Euro out to 5-7 days show just a distubance and dry air from the GOM trying to get into the NW carribean near Cozumel and the Yucitan. Be hard for any development thru the weekend..but time will tell
Quoting 68. 999Ai2016:


And there's been approximately 8 centimeters/3 inches worth of global sea level rise since Andrew (1992, I don't know what the local tide gauges numbers are though) :


Yes and this will be an issue.
Hopefully Floridians are ready this year, this might be the year in which the "Hurricane drought" ends . Unfortunately 2.5 million Floridians may not know what to do because they have never been through a hurricane.
Quoting 72. birdsrock2016:

Hopefully Floridians are ready this year, this might be the year in which the "Hurricane drought" ends . Unfortunately 2.5 million Floridians may not know what to do because they have never been through a hurricane.

This will be something to watch and is a concern. but the public here has dealt with tropical storms almost every year and the media and local officials do a good job of educating the local population
Erika last year did help to serve a s a wake up call for Floridians because they finally realized that they are still vulnerable to hurricanes and prepared their emergency kits. They also realized that Florida is still vulnerable even though no hurricane has struck in a while.
Quoting 75. birdsrock2016:

Erika last year did help to serve a s a wake up call for Floridians because they finally realized that they are still vulnerable to hurricanes and prepared their emergency kits. They also realized that Florida is still vulnerable even though no hurricane has struck in a while.

I reject this. I think Floridians always know they're vulnerable. They didnt forget as they have all been through many storms. Also, its part of our culture. Insuranc rates prove that. Also most people in south florida have shutters
Although, there might be some people which may not follow evacuation orders and " ride it out" because they did it before . That is something that scares me , because they might not realize the power of storm surge. The killer is usually storm surge more than the wind.
Quoting 74. Tazmanian:





Wow you are a 100% troll If you lived in FL in 2004 and 2005. Many of the FL blogger. Will tell you that they been through enough with back to back hurricanes. Hurricanes where making land fall in FL all over the place in 2004 and I bet many on here where happy once the season was over


Lots of people have moved to Florida since 2005. Florida gained two house seats in Congress between the 2000 and 2010 census which correlates to a sizable population growth.
Quoting 54. 19N81W:

what is the upper level setup to get this thing going?




After this upper level trof lifts out an upper level ridge/anticyclone develops and builds through out the W Caribbean
Quoting 78. win1gamegiantsplease:



Lots of people have moved to Florida since 2005. Florida gained two house seats in Congress between the 2000 and 2010 census which correlates to a sizable population growth.

Something to watch for. But i think education is better than it has been and like i said homes here are designed for this. In Miami new homes have to come with shutters
Quoting 23. Grothar:

When I lived in Germany, these systems were referred to as Zugstrasse VB. They have been studied for years, although this type of flooding is not that common in that part of Germany.


The now flooded village Braunsbach had tampered with the local streams at their own peril - they forced 4 of them into underground pipes, which were now blocked by debris and thus blew up under pressure. Poor planning with devastating consequences.

ok
I was sure hoping for more of what we saw yesterday and this morning but has dried out alot.
Quoting 79. wunderkidcayman:



After this upper level trof lifts out an upper level ridge/anticyclone develops and builds through out the W Caribbean
Quoting 61. gator23:


People in South Florida are told to evacuate inland. Anyone on the coast has to leave. There are no mandatory evacuations inland. Remember, Andrew was a Cat 5 and evacuations where not a problem


Really?
"In several counties that Interstate 75 passes through many evacuees took refuge at highway rest stops." Hurricane Andrew Preliminary Report, NWS Tampa Bay

Wikipedia: On Interstate 95 and Florida's Turnpike, bumper-to-bumper traffic was reported for more than 200 miles (320 km) and was regarded as probably the largest traffic jam in the history of Florida.



Delray Beach, Aug. 23, 1992: Northbound traffic on I-95 was bumper-to-bumper while southbound lanes were nearly empty as people were evacuated from the path of Hurricane Andrew. (Palm Beach Post staff file photo)
Quoting 82. 19N81W:

ok
I was sure hoping for more of what we saw yesterday and this morning but has dried out alot.



Don't worry mate once the upper level anticyclone develops you'll see convection exploding all over the W Carib including us
well both Euro and Gfs in the 12Z run today put some kind of storm into about central florida or a little south of there and crossing to the ATL...CMC has one a lil earlier,coming into about central florida and travelling NE up to I guess Jacksonviille area and up the east coast..still way too early and these runs will change just like..they did today
well here's the Latest Euro run,a lil north of where GFS puts the storm........
Ft Murray fire still going. Let us give those guys up north a helping hand ...
SouthAfrican firefighters burst into song as they arrive in canada

Quoting 83. daddyjames:



Really?
"In several counties that Interstate 75 passes through many evacuees took refuge at highway rest stops." Hurricane Andrew Preliminary Report, NWS Tampa Bay

Wikipedia: On Interstate 95 and Florida's Turnpike, bumper-to-bumper traffic was reported for more than 200 miles (320 km) and was regarded as probably the largest traffic jam in the history of Florida.



Delray Beach, Aug. 23, 1992: Northbound traffic on I-95 was bumper-to-bumper while southbound lanes were nearly empty as people were evacuated from the path of Hurricane Andrew. (Palm Beach Post staff file photo)

Interesting. Maybe since then it has gotten better.
Quoting 86. LargoFl:

well here's the Latest Euro run,a lil north of where GFS puts the storm........
Hopefully not more than a rain event.
Quoting 90. unknowncomic:

Hopefully not more than a rain event.
yes I sure agree with you there,hope no real bad winds or worse tornado's etc.
Quoting 89. gator23:


Interesting. Maybe since then it has gotten better.


My folks traveled south on the turnpike from Winter Haven to return home the day before Andrew (I was boarding up their house) . All they saw was bumper-to-bumper traffic going Northbound almost the entire length, no traffic going south . . .
Quoting 69. gator23:


Im talking about 10 minutes inland here. In short we tend not do mass evacuations because if u evacuate Miami a storm could shift and hit Orlando. No where to go. People go to shelters. We only evacuate the keys and barrier islands.


This was instituted as a result of Andrew. Basically because of what occurred traffic-wise.
Quoting 83. daddyjames:



Really?
"In several counties that Interstate 75 passes through many evacuees took refuge at highway rest stops." Hurricane Andrew Preliminary Report, NWS Tampa Bay

Wikipedia: On Interstate 95 and Florida's Turnpike, bumper-to-bumper traffic was reported for more than 200 miles (320 km) and was regarded as probably the largest traffic jam in the history of Florida.



Delray Beach, Aug. 23, 1992: Northbound traffic on I-95 was bumper-to-bumper while southbound lanes were nearly empty as people were evacuated from the path of Hurricane Andrew. (Palm Beach Post staff file photo)


I thought Floyd was the largest evacuation in Florida history, but maybe that is including numbers for Georgia and South Carolina.
96. IDTH
Going to be a very interesting week with possible tropical mischief in the works. A little far out in time, but it seems like we're getting some decent consensus from the models so far. By the way, anyone know where I can find the UKMET model?
Quoting 95. SavannahStorm:



I thought Floyd was the largest evacuation in Florida history, but maybe that is including numbers for Georgia and South Carolina.


Yes, I think Floyd ultimately surpassed Hurricane Andrew in number of residents under official evacuation orders. Essentially the entire East coast of Florida was ordered to evacuate at some time or another.
Jesus Ch.. !

http://www.lightningmaps.org/?lang=it#y=52.8959;x =6.2516;z=8;t=3;m=sat;r=0;s=1;o=0;b=;n=0;d=2;dl=2; dc=0;

This is scaring !
Quoting 98. daddyjames:



Yes, I think Floyd ultimately surpassed Hurricane Andrew in number of residents under official evacuation orders. Essentially the entire East coast of Florida was ordered to evacuate at some time or another.


Floyd brought flooding all up and down the east coast. My house in NJ was flooded by Floyd. He stalled, and it was torrential rain that just wouldn't quit.

Quoting 87. Tazmanian:





Do you even live in FLORIDA and are you JFV?


Taz, I do in fact live in Florida, and have gone through Hurricane Wilma. I have been living here for 17 years now. Also, to answer your question of whether I am JFV, I am not.
Quoting 103. birdsrock2016:




Taz, I do in fact live in Florida, and have gone through Hurricane Wilma. I have been living here for 17 years now. Also, to answer your question of whether I am JFV, I am not.


Ok just wanted too make sure. JFV is a person that all ways liked getting past his bannds and putting the year at the end of his named that why I asked if you where him
well we should sit back and wait for this coming Monday and see whats happening and what the models are saying then..too soon yet and really..nothing has formed yet for them to actually lock onto...its florida and this time of year we always prepare and wait to see whats coming our way...especially this season huh.
Could we possibly have 3 named storms before June 11th?
Quoting 104. Tazmanian:



Ok just wanted too make sure. JFV is a person that all ways liked getting past his bannds and putting the year at the end of his named that why I asked if you where him


As if he would say "Yes, I am" if he was?
Trust me, I am not JFV. I am a newcomer to the blog. I signed up for an account in January. You can check my stats.
Nor should it be allowed.
Quoting 99. SecretStormNerd:

Sorry, satire is not aloud on the blog =)

Quoting 89. gator23:


Interesting. Maybe since then it has gotten better.


I live in Homestead, Fl. and have lived in the Perrine area (Palmetto Bay) since 1973. Every hurricane season we are reminded to evacuate inland for storm surge and hide from the winds. Because of Andrew, it has been established that during an evacuation, south bound lanes after a certain point are turned into northbound lanes to facilitate evacuation in congested areas. What will also help is recent programs that will be able to identify areas that will face the biggest threat from surge based on the strength of the storm, the angle at which it will make landfall, and how slow the storm is moving. Evacuation zones (as opposed to flood zones) have changed based on these parameters. In the Keys, it is a staggered evacuation with first the southern keys, and then the middle Keys, and finally, the upper Keys. They are told to evacuate with as low as a cat one hurricane. With regards to storm surge and the Southeast coast really only Miami-Dade county is affected with any breadth. Points North of Miami Dade county will only have a very narrow sliver affected by storm surge...basically east of I-95. One big cause of flooding outside of surge is when canals get blocked by debris and then start overflowing into neighborhood streets. This is most likely during very slow moving storms with lots of rainfall along with the wind that would pick up debris and clog the canals. This is why even Cat 1's can be dangerous.
112. IDTH
Very interesting, notice the colder anomaly starting to show up along the California coast.
kinda depends where it sets up doesnt it?

Upper tropospheric systems[edit]
The existence of an upper level ridge allows upper level divergence which leads to surface convergence. If a capping mid-level ridge does not exist, this leads to free convection and the development of showers and thunderstorms if the lower atmosphere is humid. Because tropical cyclones strengthen these ridges, a positive feedback loop develops between the convective tropical cyclone and the upper level high, strengthening both systems. This loop stops once ocean temperatures under the system cool sufficiently, under 26.5 °C (79.7 °F),[16] which forces the thunderstorm activity to wane, which then weakens the upper level

Quoting 84. wunderkidcayman:



Don't worry mate once the upper level anticyclone develops you'll see convection exploding all over the W Carib including us
Even if there is a tropical system that dose form in the Atlantic the week of June 5th, it is way too far out to tell. The NHC should issue a outlook for the chance on 5 day development on June 1st. My question is since there should be tropical development in the eastern pacific this week, should we monitor that to see if a similar scenario plays out the week of June 5th? This may be a dumb question but I'm curious.
Quoting 112. IDTH:

Very interesting, notice the colder anomaly starting to show up along the California coast.


Could the PDO be switching back negative?
Our rainy season pattern has finally setup here in S.W. Florida. Two afternoons in a row with afternoon boomers here.
Quoting 89. gator23:


Interesting. Maybe since then it has gotten better.



North of Dade County, it has gotten better traffic wise. There are more lanes to handle evacs and they if need be convert the southbound lanes into northbound ones. There is now a East-West Interstate that takes people from Ft. Lauderdale to the West Coast of Florida that was not in existence in 1992. Dade County however, is another story. There is a section of i-95 that drops down to 3 lanes due to a slew of logistical issues. North and south of that area i-95 is 5 lane highway.
Quoting 117. birdsrock2016:

By the way, what did JFV do wrong that he got banned all the time?


They hated his shower curtain
Can we not quote the offensive material so that it is further propagated?

Edit: So, could you please modify your "quotes" so as to remove that which is offensive?
Ok I have been following this blog for a number of years now... What does "JFV" stand for? What did he do and why does he get talked about every year? I have read previous posts but I am still a bit lost.
Don't give it a reaction people.By responding you are furthering its agenda....
Quoting 117. birdsrock2016:

By the way, what did JFV do wrong that he got banned all the time?


He was a concern troll and regularly insulted people who didn't agree with him. After his original account got banned, he or an imitator kept setting up accounts and doing the same thing for 4 years or so. I have dozens of WU emails from those accounts insulting me when I didn't agree with him and on rare occasions praise when I did. I don't post as much anymore, but I assume he's been gone for a few years but a lot of the older bloggers particularly Mr. Taz like to keep an eye out for him.
Quoting 82. 19N81W:

ok
I was sure hoping for more of what we saw yesterday and this morning but has dried out alot.



We did pretty well yesterday and today. I registered 1.7 inches for the two days. .5 since midnight last night.
Quoting 125. LemieT:

Ok I have been following this blog for a number of years now... What does "JFV" stand for? What did he do and why does he get talked about every year? I have read previous posts but I am still a bit lost.
He was a infamous troll on WU.He went after multiple people and put others personal information out on the blog.He circumvented multiple bans and got into a lot of fights.The J stands for his name "Janiel" but I'm not sure what the f and v stand for.
This is what happens when the east coast sea breeze slams into the west coast sea breeze across S.W. Florida. Pretty cool to see.
Quoting 112. IDTH:

Very interesting, notice the colder anomaly starting to show up along the California coast.



Hmm also warning in the Northern North Atlantic as well

Hmm could be PDO switching to negative and AMO switching to positive
134. IDTH
Quoting 118. HurricaneFan:


Could the PDO be switching back negative?

I don't think so. There would have to be a more rapid/consistent change showing up (which I don't expect to happen). We'll most likely stay in a warm PDO phase but I don't think it will be as obvious as it was last year.
Quoting 129. ElConando:



He was a concern troll and regularly insulted people who didn't agree with him. After his original account got banned, he or an imitator kept setting up accounts and doing the same thing for 4 years or so. I have dozens of WU emails from those accounts insulting me when I didn't agree with him and on rare occasions praise when I did. I don't post as much anymore, but I assume he's been gone for a few years but a lot of the older bloggers particularly Mr. Taz like to keep an eye out for him.


I do hope he has "Moved On" and to never have to
deal with that nutcase again
j/s

Taco :o)
Quoting 132. Sfloridacat5:

This is what happens when the east coast sea breeze slams into the west coast sea breeze across S.W. Florida. Pretty cool to see.



This explains why there are mid level clouds over SE Florida right now. That blow back from the storms on the west coast was strong.
Quoting 134. IDTH:


I don't think so. There would have to be a more rapid/consistent change showing up (which I don't expect to happen). We'll most likely stay in a warm PDO phase but I don't think it will be as obvious as it was last year.

Careful hehe you might jinx it and PDO go cold
Quoting 133. wunderkidcayman:



Hmm also warning in the Northern North Atlantic as well

Hmm could be PDO switching to negative and AMO switching to positive

Maybe. I can't help but notice how the North Atlantic continues to warm up. The cold blob has weakened a lot since March. Meanwhile the Pacific is cooling down.
Quoting 138. JrWeathermanFL:





Yep, I've noticed the blob northeast of the Bahamas too. Looking interesting...
Quoting 140. NCHurricane2009:


Yep, I've noticed the blob northeast of the Bahamas too. Looking interesting...
I think that is the precursor to the storm the GFS keeps showing to the north of P.R on its runs.It has't dropped the storm and has been showing it now for several runs/
I got banned for a little bit , I don't know why though . It said because I quoted an inappropriate comment. Can you explain the policies so that I don't infringe on them by accident again.
143. NJTom
I'm looking for any shred of hope that the northeast will get a prolonged soaking rain before the fall. So far this year northeastern NJ seems to be in the driest hole east of the Mississippi! Please volunteer your wishcasts!
144. IDTH
Quoting 141. washingtonian115:

I think that is the precursor to the storm the GFS keeps showing to the north of P.R on its runs.It has't dropped the storm and has been showing it now for several runs/

The GFS can be right sometimes too (I'll never forget Debby and how it outsmarted the Euro) and if it's consistent, that's normally a good sign that development is very possible.
Quoting 142. birdsrock2016:

I got banned for a little bit , I don't know why though . It said because I quoted an inappropriate comment. Can you explain the policies so that I don't infringe on them by accident again.


Rules of the Road
Please do not carry on personal disputes on blogs or photos.
No personal attacks. This includes, but is not limited to: name calling, harassment or bullying toward any other member.
No hate speech of any kind is allowed.
Foul or obscene language or content of any kind is not allowed.
Threats and intimidation will not be tolerated, and behavior of this type which extends into the real world will be dealt with by extreme action.
Keep conversations on topic and avoid adult-only topic themes. Our site is open to users of all ages, so please respect others.
Posting comments which contain links to external sites is allowed, but please keep the number of links to a maximum of 10-12. Links should also be relevant to the blog topic and/or discussion topic at hand.
Do not quote content which violates the Rules of the Road.
Do not circumvent a ban or any other administrative action by using another username or creating a new username. Most bans last 24 hours or less, please accept the ban.
No monomania.
No spam.
Quoting 144. IDTH:


The GFS can be right sometimes too (I'll never forget Debby and how it outsmarted the Euro) and if it's consistent, that's normally a good sign that development is very possible.

I believe it was the GFS that first identified Bonnie, even though it did horrible later on in forecasting the system.
147. IDTH
Just for comparisons sake, 2005 vs 2016
2005

2016

2005

2016
Quoting 142. birdsrock2016:

I got banned for a little bit , I don't know why though . It said because I quoted an inappropriate comment. Can you explain the policies so that I don't infringe on them by accident again.


Post 145 sets out the Rules. If you repeat a post that would get the poster banned then your quoting of it is equivalent to having posted it yourself. If you feel a post violates the Rules of the blog flag it and move on.
Quoting 145. ElConando:



Rules of the Road
Please do not carry on personal disputes on blogs or photos.
No personal attacks. This includes, but is not limited to: name calling, harassment or bullying toward any other member.
No hate speech of any kind is allowed.
Foul or obscene language or content of any kind is not allowed.
Threats and intimidation will not be tolerated, and behavior of this type which extends into the real world will be dealt with by extreme action.
Keep conversations on topic and avoid adult-only topic themes. Our site is open to users of all ages, so please respect others.
Posting comments which contain links to external sites is allowed, but please keep the number of links to a maximum of 10-12. Links should also be relevant to the blog topic and/or discussion topic at hand.
Do not quote content which violates the Rules of the Road.
Do not circumvent a ban or any other administrative action by using another username or creating a new username. Most bans last 24 hours or less, please accept the ban.
No monomania.
No spam.
Thanks, El Conando
Quoting 147. IDTH:

Just for comparisons sake, 2005 vs 2016
2005

2016

2005

2016


The Caribbean is very warm with lots of heat potential. If we switch into a Nina pattern with moist air and lower shear we could see a monster there.
Quoting 148. kmanislander:



Post 145 sets out the Rules. If you repeat a post that would get the poster banned then your quoting of it is equivalent to having posted it yourself. If you feel a post violates the Rules of the blog flag it and move on.


Thank you, kmanislander
Germany - Floods in South Leave 3 Dead
Floodlist.com* - 30 May, 2016 by Richard Davies.
====================================
More than 3 inches of rain fell within 24 hours in some areas in southwestern Germany according to meteociel observations network and floodlist.com (northern France totals could also become impressive in a few hours):

* Other flood-related news, worldwide : Floodlist.com/News
Report - Flood Losses in Europe to Increase Fivefold by 2050 - Floodlist
Quoting 147. IDTH:

Just for comparisons sake, 2005 vs 2016
2005

2016

2005

2016



SST and TCHP are only two of a multitude of factors that determine the potential for tropical cyclone development. If other factors do not line up, all the ocean heat content in the world will not produce a cyclone. However, if one does get going and passes over the NW Caribbean the potential for RI becomes very high as we have seen on so many occasions in the past. Time and time again the intensity forecasts for a cyclone in this part of the basin falls short of what actually happens.
Quoting 111. bluehaze27:



I live in Homestead, Fl. and have lived in the Perrine area (Palmetto Bay) since 1973. Every hurricane season we are reminded to evacuate inland for storm surge and hide from the winds. Because of Andrew, it has been established that during an evacuation, south bound lanes after a certain point are turned into northbound lanes to facilitate evacuation in congested areas. What will also help is recent programs that will be able to identify areas that will face the biggest threat from surge based on the strength of the storm, the angle at which it will make landfall, and how slow the storm is moving. Evacuation zones (as opposed to flood zones) have changed based on these parameters. In the Keys, it is a staggered evacuation with first the southern keys, and then the middle Keys, and finally, the upper Keys. They are told to evacuate with as low as a cat one hurricane. With regards to storm surge and the Southeast coast really only Miami-Dade county is affected with any breadth. Points North of Miami Dade county will only have a very narrow sliver affected by storm surge...basically east of I-95. One big cause of flooding outside of surge is when canals get blocked by debris and then start overflowing into neighborhood streets. This is most likely during very slow moving storms with lots of rainfall along with the wind that would pick up debris and clog the canals. This is why even Cat 1's can be dangerous.


Not to mention having to pay all those tolls if you don't have a SunPass...just kidding. Though I wonder would they still charge you even if it's a small price to pay to stay safe.

We also had a protocol to have I-40 reverse lanes in the case of hurricane in SE NC, but has been removed. [Link]
Quoting 154. win1gamegiantsplease:



Not to mention having to pay all those tolls if you don't have a SunPass...just kidding. Though I wonder would they still charge you even if it's a small price to pay to stay safe.

We also had a protocol to have I-40 reverse lanes in the case of hurricane in SE NC, but has been removed. [Link]


That was addressed after Hurricane Andrew as well. One reason for the backups was that tolls were not immediately suspended (and there was no SunPass at the time}. Now, once an evacuation order has been issued, tolls are immediately suspended in the areas affected and all gates are opened.
156. IDTH
Quoting 153. kmanislander:



SST and TCHP are only two of a multitude of factors that determine the potential for tropical cyclone development. If other factors do not line up, all the ocean heat content in the world will not produce a cyclone. However, if one does get going and passes over the NW Caribbean the potential for RI becomes very high as we have seen on so many occasions in the past. Time and time again the intensity forecasts for a cyclone in this part of the basin falls short of what actually happens.

Of course. Like I said it was just for comparisons sake. Shear and dry air are huge factors. What I found very interesting about 2005 was just how void the cape Verde season was. I wasn't involved here then but if I recall didn't 2005 have a huge Bermuda/Azores high that wound up keeping most of the storms from curving away from the coast? If so that must have meant the eastern Atlantic was unfavorable that year because of the fact that most storms hadn't developed till they got past about 60 W.

That explains why that year was an analog year for 2013 (steering pattern was similar) but unlike 2005, 2013 didn't have nearly the record breaking water temps and the Caribbean was just filled with sinking air and screaming trade winds.

2016 is interesting because we're going to most likely have a La Nina at some point during the Hurricane Season and the water temps in the Caribbean could support that of a storm similar to Wilma. However, will sinking air continue to plague the Caribbean and will the steering pattern allow waves to make their way into the Caribbean if it is favorable? So many questions but if things come into play, 2016 could be quite a bad year, especially in the Caribbean.
So, is everybody cool with me being on the blog then? We all now know that I am not JFV.
Quoting 157. birdsrock2016:

So, is everybody cool with me being on the blog then? We all now know that I am not JFV.


LOL - no worries.
GOES-3 is being decommissioned

GOES-3 started service on 16 June 1978 and was the operational GOES-West satellite until the late 1980s. Having lost imaging capabilities, it started a second long life as a communications satellite; GOES-3 is currently the oldest operating satellite. Decommissioning will begin on 8 June and run for 15 days. If final decommissioning happens as planned on 23 June, GOES-3’s service life will be 38 years, 7 days.

GOES-3’s arguably most famous imagery occurred during the eruption of Mount St. Helens on 18 May 1980.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/goes/blog/archives/212 78
I think some people have had a little too much to drink today.
Allow me to very specifically respond to this troll: JK, it's Memorial day, my focus is on honoring and thanking the real 1%ers! Thank you all current and past military personnel and all the families who have sacrificed so much. Bonnie was exciting but next week may trump that big time, maybe a 50mph ts :). We really have been spoiled so far this year tropically speaking.
Quoting 182. RobertWC:
bappit:

Are you a lawyer, or an engineer ?
Neither and both.

What I do know is that a lie repeated often enough becomes truth.
Noobdave, if you have anything to talk about weather, you can say it. Please keep politics out of the discussion as this blog is for everybody to see. Please read the "Community Standards Policy" for more info.
Alright kids, I'm off. Enjoy the rest of your Memorial Day.

Thanks to our vet blogers and everyone else who has served.
Quoting 161. TropicalAnalystwx13:

I think some people have had a little too much to drink today.


agreed
18Z GFS running. Still showing that weak low northeast of PR. It's quite consistent.
Very cool slow motion video of a lightning strike...step leaders come down first and once they touch ground, the main strike goes from the ground up... Link
Quoting 172. HurricaneFan:

18Z GFS running. Still showing that weak low northeast of PR. It's quite consistent.



Yes, i'm getting this as well in the latest runs.
No closed low, but a TON of rain.
Quoting 172. HurricaneFan:

18Z GFS running. Still showing that weak low northeast of PR. It's quite consistent.


And it's sitting in between 2 Highs.
i say with all the commits being re moved arent the mods going too re move commit 168?
Quoting 141. washingtonian115:

I think that is the precursor to the storm the GFS keeps showing to the north of P.R on its runs.It has't dropped the storm and has been showing it now for several runs/

Yes, I agree that this is the precursor to the storm that GFS is now showing north of PR. This system is orginating from the same upper trough that helped produced Bonnie, and this trough is about to shift eastward and so I think if it develops its going to move with the trough and around the north side of the Atlantic high. I wouldn't be surprised if it curves toward Bermuda, they might need to watch this one (but I don't think it would get particularly strong either because whatever develops will come under increasing shear as the upper trough de-amplifies).

And on top of that we could have yet another storm develop in the W Carib. Definitely a hyperactive start to the season if all of this comes true....
Quoting 183. NCHurricane2009:


Yes, I agree that this is the precursor to the storm that GFS is now showing north of PR. This system is orginating from the same upper trough that helped produced Bonnie, and this trough is about to shift eastward and so I think if it develops its going to move with the trough and around the north side of the Atlantic high. I wouldn't be surprised if it curves toward Bermuda, they might need to watch this one (but I don't think it would get particularly strong either because whatever develops will come under increasing shear as the upper trough de-amplifies).

And on top of that we could have yet another storm develop in the W Carib. Definitely a hyperactive start to the season if all of this comes true....

More storms are on the way. I am very confident we are going to have an active season in the Atlantic this year. The warm SSTs and the lower shear from La Nina just seems like a setup for more storms.
185. beell
Quoting 161. TropicalAnalystwx13:

I think some people have had a little too much to drink today.


Did get a little kessv for a bit.
186. IDTH
Quoting 181. tiggerhurricanes2001:


And it's sitting in between 2 Highs.

That's not actually possible I believe.
Quoting 185. beell:



Did get a little kessv for a bit.

Shhh. I typed that post on my phone this morning while rushing, and I corrected it when I saw it. :P
I need to stay off of my phone on holiday weekends...back to lurking.
Quoting 110. PuppyToes:

Nor should it be allowed.


Quoting 160. CaicosRetiredSailor:

GOES-3 is being decommissioned

GOES-3 started service on 16 June 1978 and was the operational GOES-West satellite until the late 1980s. Having lost imaging capabilities, it started a second long life as a communications satellite; GOES-3 is currently the oldest operating satellite. Decommissioning will begin on 8 June and run for 15 days. If final decommissioning happens as planned on 23 June, GOES-3’s service life will be 38 years, 7 days.

GOES-3’s arguably most famous imagery occurred during the eruption of Mount St. Helens on 18 May 1980.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/goes/blog/archives/212 78
Oh well, that's how it GOES (see what I did there). Nice to hear from you Caicos, it's been awhile!
Wow, if we even get one storm next week, we're way ahead of the game. Shear switch has been faster than most anticipated, and looks like more favorable shear may be in place over the next week through the Caribbean. Really hard to say, but certainly trending in that direction. May be looking at a hyper active season.
Quoting 191. DeepSeaRising:

Wow, if we even get one storm next week, we're way ahead of the game. Shear switch has been faster than most anticipated, and looks like more favorable shear may be in place over the next week through the Caribbean. Really hard to say, but certainly trending in that direction. May be looking at a hyper active season.


Remember, it only takes one to have a significant impact on the season.
193. beell
Quoting 188. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Shhh. I typed that post on my phone this morning while rushing, and I corrected it when I saw it. :P


I started to take an unwarranted shot then...couldn't resist a second chance.
Peace!
Quoting 193. beell:



I started to take an unwarranted shot then...couldn't resist a second chance.
Peace!
What are you thoughts on the possible Western Caribbean development?
Quoting 194. Gearsts:

What are you thoughts on the possible Western Caribbean development?


ECMWF has been showing this storm for several runs in a row. Maybe we could get Colin out of this, but it is still over a week away. But don't forget, it's ECMWF.
Quoting 172. HurricaneFan:

18Z GFS running. Still showing that weak low northeast of PR. It's quite consistent.



It also shows a strange and troubling setup if it stays through the season. Persistent low pressure in the North Atlantic above 40N, while the Atlantic Ridge is stationed further south and stretching further west than normal. A setup like that in July/August/September would lead to more systems from the MDR impacting the Carribean, Mexico, and the US.
Quoting 105. LargoFl:




The CMC is showing a TD/Weak TS slamming Tampa, then crossing Florida, becoming a strong cat 1 hurricane moving along the shore.
"Cindy with eight: H4; 2005"

Jeff, Cindy was a cat 1 during 2005, not a cat 4.

Also your welcome for catching this mistake.
:)
200. beell
Quoting 194. Gearsts:

What are you thoughts on the possible Western Caribbean development?



We see this type of set-up almost every year in the early part of the season. A broad area of low pressure associated with a monsoon gyre or at least a part of the monsoon trough that gets the eastern end of its original E/W axis pulled north into the Caribbean. The set-up usually begins with somewhat anomalous (in strength) westerlies along the EPAC ITCZ AOA 700 mb into the SW Caribbean.

The axis usually tilts in response to an existing SW/NE area of low pressure between NOAM troughing and tropical ATL ridging. Plenty of moisture from the southern Caribbean and the eastern Pacific. The kind of set up that promotes grid-scale feedback in a model as it "tries" to bundle up all that convective latent heat into a surface low.

Little bits of vorticity (some real, some imagined, lol) circulate around the gyre. Sometimes one of them congeals. Sometimes not. Sometimes in the EPAC, sometimes in the Caribbean/BOC. Sometimes both! See 2013 EPAC Manuel/ATL Ingrid.

Hurricane Ingrid was one of two tropical cyclones, along with Hurricane Manuel, to strike Mexico within a 24 hour period, the first such occurrence since 1958. Ingrid was the ninth named storm and second hurricane of the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season. It formed on September 12 in the Gulf of Mexico from a broad disturbance that also spawned Manuel in the eastern Pacific.
wiki

There is a lovely, consistently modeled upper level high over the Caribbean along with relatively weak steering currents next week. Time for something to pull together, maybe. There is also 50-70 knots of destructive shear N of 25N.

Long story short...I think the general set-up as described is probable. Beyond that, "butt who nose?"
Much better up here today, only got to 73F so far.... Prayers for a quick recovery from Bonnie.

Quoting 161. TropicalAnalystwx13:

I think some people have had a little too much to drink today.


Or not enough.

60.1/79.2F here today and starting to go Ballistic after today.. glad you have relief ..R-O-L-A-I-D-S
Ped - Those high 90s are not going to be fun.... Yuk.

Here's mine Ped.... I'm happy with this.

Dup. Post.
Near real-time data. RED LEVEL ALERT - 1910 levels reached at Loing basin - Loiret :

Currently, about at least a dozen stations in France are also recording river flow/ height steep increase/overflow above some decennial high values of note (source vigicrues.gouv.fr). More at my blog. Paris river monitoring stations are under yellow watch, the Seine is rising but levels there aren't alarming yet.
Quoting 205. Dakster:

Ped - Those high 90s are not going to be fun.... Yuk.



Hopefully the RH is Low, and I have the AC as backup for the water cooler if it goes over 95 or the RH is higher than optimal.
Quoting 206. Dakster:

Here's mine Ped.... I'm happy with this.




Your Highs are gonna be my Lows, I am afraid....
211. Tcwx2
Your high will be lower than my low until September. Dreading this hot S Alabama summer.
Quoting 206. Dakster:

Here's mine Ped.... I'm happy with this.


Super. Power just went out just as I was ready to read....:-(
Quoting 211. Tcwx2:

Your high will be lower than my low until September. Dreading this hot S Alabama summer.


Charleston gets pretty hot too...cant believe how cold we have been yesterday and today...probably about 15 degrees below average...
Quoting 212. BahaHurican:

Super. Power just went out just as I was ready to read....:-(


sorry baha...
As for Memorial Day...to those that fought before me...to those that fought with me...to those that fought after me...and to those still fighting...the ones that were never found...the one that didn't make it home alive...to the families of the lost...to all of my brothers and sisters of the military....I salute you....
Only 26 hours until ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON 2016 (which technically started in January)
How is the flooding in South Carolina now, Tiggeriffic?
Quoting 218. birdsrock2016:

How is the flooding in South Carolina now, Tiggeriffic?


raining again...it was pretty localized in the area I live...our church flooded in the fellowship hall and kitchen... an appliance store flooded at their loading dock and parking lot. (water was 1" from entering building) ...just south of me is where the interstate was under water and so were the cars... north of me where some friends live was pretty inundated as well...it was more widespread than the flood back in October...but haven't heard from any of the guys that work for us yet or my oldest son....(my oldest had flooding all around him back in October...)
Quoting 217. HurricaneFan:

Only 26 hours until ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON 2016 (which technically started in January)


Isn't it less? Weather uses UTC, so 21 hours?
Bye all, I am done for the night. I wish the best for everyone in South Carolina and Texas. Hopefully their flood situations will improve soon
Quoting 221. birdsrock2016:

Bye all, I am done for the night. I wish the best for everyone in South Carolina and Texas. Hopefully their flood situations will improve soon


gnite
Quoting 223. Patrap:



to this day I still tear up when I hear TAPS





to this day...I still tear up when I hear TAPS
Tried to put a comment with that....to this day I still tear up when I hear TAPS
Quoting 212. BahaHurican:

Super. Power just went out just as I was ready to read....:-(

Link
Agatha appears likely to form this weekend, finally paving the way for the start of the 2016 eastern Pacific hurricane season.
Quoting 227. KoritheMan:

Agatha appears likely to form this weekend, finally paving the way for the start of the 2016 eastern Pacific hurricane season.


No. Captain Trough will save the day over Mega Ridge and protect the ocean from Agatha at 130 hours on the Astro-model simulation.

;)
Quoting 228. Astrometeor:



No. Captain Trough will save the day over Mega Ridge and protect the ocean from Agatha at 130 hours on the Astro-model simulation.

;)


My friend knows Obama personally, and he said that weather modification occurs at regular intervals.
Quoting 229. KoritheMan:



My friend knows Obama personally, and he said that weather modification occurs at regular intervals.


The disturbance will fujiwhara with the mountains of Mexico and suffer relapses every time d-min rolls around. Singular hot towers will not be enough to overcome the SAL of the Pacific.
I can't believe I'm saying this but it's possible Bonnie might make a short comeback

11pm Advisory (WPC) on Bonnie
Bonnie is now back over the water(Just off shore)
Also she is now moving SE again(I'm not too suprised about that)
Bonnie has found her self in a sweet spot with upper level shear dropping into the 5-10kt range(also if she can move about a degree E she would be tapping into the Gulfstream)
Also to note spots of convection starting to pop and increase over the circulation more so over water

Overall I'd expect Bonnie to eventually move NE
But given what is going on this opens the possibility of Bonnie making a short comeback before getting wisked away and turned extratropical

Just saying
Either way Bonnie is one system that just doesn't wanna give up
Quoting 227. KoritheMan:

Agatha appears likely to form this weekend, finally paving the way for the start of the 2016 eastern Pacific hurricane season.


Id say EPac season might end up like the 2015 season for the Atlantic dull with not much ... maybe one or two surprises but that just about it IMO
A bit of a slow season to start
Quoting 231. wunderkidcayman:

I can't believe I'm saying this but it's possible Bonnie might make a short comeback

11pm Advisory (WPC) on Bonnie
Bonnie is now back over the water(Just off shore)
Also she is now moving SE again(I'm not too suprised about that)
Bonnie has found her self in a sweet spot with upper level shear dropping into the 5-10kt range(also if she can move about a degree E she would be tapping into the Gulfstream)
Also to note spots of convection starting to pop and increase over the circulation more so over water

Overall I'd expect Bonnie to eventually move NE
But given what is going on this opens the possibility of Bonnie making a short comeback before getting wisked away and turned extratropical

Just saying
Either way Bonnie is one system that just doesn't wanna give up


This is the Third U-Turn she has made since she has made landfall.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE
BONNIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.4 NORTH...AND LONGITUDE 79.2
WEST. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BONNIE IS CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH
MAINLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS. RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ALSO SHOW LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE MOISTURE FROM BONNIE
OVERSPREADING PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD...MAINLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN MID-ATLANTIC AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST. POCKETS OF
THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALSO OBSERVED OFFSHORE OF SOUTHERN NORTH
CAROLINA. WINDS OF ONLY AROUND 10 MPH ARE PRESENT NEAR THE CENTER
OF CIRCULATION ON LAND...WHILE WINDS ARE SOMEWHAT STRONGER
OFFSHORE. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BONNIE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
SLOWLY DRIFTING TOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 36
HOURS...AND INCREASE IN SPEED SOMEWHAT BY WEDNESDAY...TRACKING
OFFSHORE OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST. THE MAIN THREAT WITH
THIS STORM IS MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO
IMPACT MAINLY THE EASTERN CAROLINAS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 15 MPH...16 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1011 MB...29.86 INCHES.
Quoting 232. wunderkidcayman:



Id say EPac season might end up like the 2015 season for the Atlantic dull with not much ... maybe one or two surprises but that just about it IMO
A bit of a slow season to start



It's not slow at all, lol. The last few years have spoiled us, but the actual long-term average isn't for a May storm every year. Two weeks from now would be slow.

I do think most of the hurricane activity that occurs will be primarily west of 105W, partially because of La Nina and a warmer than normal western Caribbean potentially leading to less convective competition of developing disturbances over yonder. Could see a season like last year where most Pacific cyclones assume their peak farther west than usual.
Quoting 210. PedleyCA:



Your Highs are gonna be my Lows, I am afraid....


Sounds like a country song to me. Beauty of a day here in Acme, wa. 70° sunny put the kayaks in the south fork and enjoyed some bird watching and marvled at how much our wild little Nooksack river can change the landscape each year. Lots of new channels and big trees down. Highlight was floating along quietly, watching a big bald eagle feasting on a fat salmon.
Good morning Paris:

source : meteo-paris.com
The Seine river which flows through the city is rising, along with many other rivers. The same weather pattern that wreaked havoc over southeastern Germany is now harrassing Northern France with a renewed flood threat. Some of these rivers are already overflowing their banks.
Quoting 233. FIUStormChaser:



This is the Third U-Turn she has made since she has made landfall.

Must be some cousins to that famous K name storm that we all know and love ;) ;)

Quoting 235. KoritheMan:



It's not slow at all, lol. The last few years have spoiled us, but the actual long-term average isn't for a May storm every year. Two weeks from now would be slow.

I do think most of the hurricane activity that occurs will be primarily west of 105W, partially because of La Nina and a warmer than normal western Caribbean potentially leading to less convective competition of developing disturbances over yonder. Could see a season like last year where most Pacific cyclones assume their peak farther west than usual.


Ok not slow but I still say less active than last few years and I think activity will be Atlantic Indian WPAC maybe Cpac this year with the least being EPac second least Cpac WPAC average Indian average to active and Atlantic just above average to potentially very active IMO

Hurricane Week Day 7
Link
We might just continue to break arctic sea ice level records if this holds true.

persistent-arctic-and-subarctic-warmth-expected-t o-continue-for-months
Flood damage in whole cities, lots of unpassable roads between Paris and Luxembourg since last night because of the neverending rains. Webcam near Auxerre city :

Meanwhile, waters are piling up fast in Paris :
Quoting 231. wunderkidcayman:

I can't believe I'm saying this but it's possible Bonnie might make a short comeback

11pm Advisory (WPC) on Bonnie
Bonnie is now back over the water(Just off shore)
Also she is now moving SE again(I'm not too suprised about that)
Bonnie has found her self in a sweet spot with upper level shear dropping into the 5-10kt range(also if she can move about a degree E she would be tapping into the Gulfstream)
Also to note spots of convection starting to pop and increase over the circulation more so over water

Overall I'd expect Bonnie to eventually move NE
But given what is going on this opens the possibility of Bonnie making a short comeback before getting wisked away and turned extratropical

Just saying
Either way Bonnie is one system that just doesn't wanna give up


-Greetings & Blessings All!

Indeed, what a system it has been. An absolutely tough core and unrelenting low level center of circulation. Some re-development certainly seems likely at this point. AMAZINGLY -Its definitely Bonnie part two...
The next 24hrs should be interesting at least -if some other factors for re-development prove conducive.
God Bless!
Wow convection in the Caribbean just got destroyed! Next invest coming Bahamas's bound. Possibly. System models have been showing five plus days out is now in great doubt. Not happening in all likelihood. But, who knows, shear is moving fast and next week is way up in the air.
Quoting 243. DeepSeaRising:

Wow convection in the Caribbean just got destroyed! Next invest coming Bahamas's bound. Possibly. System models have been showing five plus days out is now in great doubt. Not happening in all likelihood. But, who knows, shear is moving fast and next week is way up in the air.


You do know that the wane of convection is just temporary right

Plus with the upper level trof moving out and an upper level anticyclone taking over the W Caribbean over the next few days it's just a matter of time before the whole area is covered
Good morning, From the NWS in Melbourne, stay tuned everyone!

he philosophy for the local forecast in both the medium/extended
ranges remains basically unchanged through day 6, with significant
attention turning toward the tropics toward the end of the period.

Wed-Fri...weak residual troughing over FL and the adjacent Atlantic
fills and ejects eastward as a mid to upper level low moves east
from the Sonoran Desert into Texas, where it will slow and stall.
One change of note is that all the operational models show this
feature to be stronger than indicated 24 hours ago, which results in
a more amplified mid to upper ridge over Florida. At the surface,
the western extension of the Bermuda ridge will essentially sit in
place over the central peninsula. This keeps diurnal shower/storm
chances across the north at 20 coastal/30 inland, and 40 coastal/
50 inland for the southern CWA, where slightly deeper mean moisture
resides, and activity enhanced by sea/lake breeze interactions.
Temps look to be near normal along the coast, and near to perhaps
1-2F above for the interior.

Sat-Mon...Mid/upper low over Texas will open up into a positive tilt
trough and remain quasi-stationary from this weekend into early next
week. Amplifying troughiness over the northeastern CONUS will flatten
the ridge over Florida, resulting in the flow aloft becoming SW-WSW.
The low level flow will also veer to south and southwesterly by
Sunday-Monday as a late season front presses toward the SE CONUS.

There remains an unusually good agreement among the suite of global
models with respect to a surface low of tropical origin (~1006MB)
ejecting N-NE out of the western Caribbean and toward Florida next
Monday into Tuesday. However, when it comes to the tropics in the
extended range the caveat of "Precision does not imply accuracy"
always applies, and even if such a system was to develop over the
western Caribbean, a gauntlet of strong upper level W-SW winds/shear
would appear to await the system if something were to reach 25N.

Whatever the case turns out to be, the pattern does imply what is
very likely to be a pretty significant increase in mean PWAT and
resultant rain chances early next week. Stay tuned...

Quoting 246. Gearsts:


good morning,yes just checked the Euro-GFS and CMC..all say something tropical crossing florida 7-8th-9th of june..looks like from tampa bay southward so far..but its a week away and can change huh..
ECMWF solution is likely close to reality if anything forms; east-weighted slop that people will needlessly glorify. Remember, it's early June. Truly tropical stuff probably won't occur until mid to late July.
After ATCF had killed Bonnie at 12z 30th as a weakening 1012mb DB
ATCF has now brought Bonnie back alive at 06z 31st as a deepening 1008mb low

New models are running for renewed Bonnie
ATCF has current movement as SE
Quoting 248. KoritheMan:

ECMWF solution is likely close to reality if anything forms; east-weighted slop that people will needlessly glorify. Remember, it's early June. Truly tropical stuff probably won't occur until mid to late July.
yes your right..its too early in the season.......here's a clip from this mornings NWS Tampa discussion that mentions it for next week...............A DEVELOPING AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTH OUT OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...WITH THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE DAY OVER WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA.
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG
GUSTY WINDS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS...FREQUENT DEADLY LIGHTNING
STRIKES...AND SOME SMALL HAIL. IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES
YOUR LOCATION...MOVE INDOORS IMMEDIATELY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER AND SELF ACTIVATE IF NEEDED.
252. MahFL
Well well well, Bonnie makes a come back:

Quoting 252. MahFL:

Well well well, Bonnie makes a come back:



Yeah I know right
Like I said Bonnie is a fighter she ain't ready to give up yet
Morning...
We keep getting these popup clouds just big enough to rain on parts of the island - and knock out power. I hope this one I hear thundering to the west doesn't make getting to work too difficult....

If Bonnie indeed regenerate and intensify Tropical Storm Warnings may be needed for North Carolina
I can't believe I'm actually saying this
I'm also looking at the persistence of the area of disturbed wx over to my east and wondering if models that illustrated another system forming in the area were right.....

#eustorm 27/30 - Tornado report 30.5.16 Deglhof, Germany - mittelbayerische.de - http://map.eustorm.com @EUStormMap.
--- Near Bayern - Germany, May 29 :

Also floods in Netherlands yesterday.
(edit : RED LEVEL ALERT - 1910 river levels reached at Loing basin - Loiret - France - red dot on the map. Lots of roads/towns/villages flooded, presumably dozens of homes as well)
Quoting 256. BahaHurican:

I'm also looking at the persistence of the area of disturbed wx over to my east and wondering if models that illustrated another system forming in the area were right.....




Models have dibbled and dabbled around the idea of a second system besides Bonnie and W Caribbean system/poss future Colin just E of the Bahamas moving ENE-NE
Oh Dear.
Never underestimate a tropical entity.
Hopefully it will wane
Quoting 257. 999Ai2016:

#eustorm 27/30 - Tornado report 30.5.16 Deglhof, Germany - mittelbayerische.de - http://map.eustorm.com @EUStormMap. Near Bayern - Germany, May 29 :

Also floods in Netherlands yesterday.

2'' (Gouda/Zuid-Holland).
Quoting 259. K8eCane:

Oh Dear.
Never underestimate a tropical entity.
Hopefully it will wane



Well as I've always said never stop looking at any tropical system till there is nothing left at all
Good Morning; here is the Conus forecast for today and current look: while there will be rain and possible flash flooding for some parts, the current position of the Conus jet (basically not situated over US) will not produce severe weather in terms of tornadoes and damaging straight-line winds which is a good thing.  The ULL near the Montana-North Dakota border appears to be the main driver for weather across the Mid-West today.




  
In terms of the Atlantic Season, and with the exception of ex-Bonnie, nothing on tap at the moment but the ITCZ continues to be very active, due to the rains in the Sahel, and it looks good all the way into the E-Pac:





In terms of the global tropics, the areas to watch appear to be the Indian Ocean (again) and the invest in the E-Pac:

Combined image of all basins




Consistent, ECMWF, and getting closer. GFS is also starting to pick up on it too. Could Colin be on the way?
And finally the floater loop and relative shear levels over/near 91E in the E-Pac; looks pretty favorable as long as the disturbance threads the needle between the bands of higher shear to the North and South: 



Good morning. Looks as if its gonna rain on my head.




Speaking of rain, (even more) selected storm-associated rainfall totals from Bonnie. Water temps not going to allow her to ramp up again, IMO.


000
WTNT32 KWNH 310923
TCPAT2

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BONNIE ADVISORY NUMBER 15...CORRECTED
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD AL022016
500 AM EDT TUE MAY 31 2016

SELECTED STORM TOTAL RAINFALL IN INCHES THROUGH 2 AM EDT

...GEORGIA...
BURTONS FERRY LANDING: 8.85
OLIVER 2 SW: 7.74
MARLOW: 7.46
NEWINGTON 1 S: 4.92
BLICHTON 1 ESE: 4.62
ROCKY FORD 1 SSW: 4.07

...NORTH CAROLINA...
HATTERAS/BILLY MITCHELL AP: 7.72

...SOUTH CAROLINA...
OLD HOUSE 1 SSE: 10.36
LENA 4 ENE: 9.03
ARCHDALE 2 NE: 8.61
FOLLY BEACH 2 WSW: 6.28
JOHNS ISLAND 4 SE: 6.24
ALLENDALE 1 S: 6.14
HENDERSONVILLE:: 6.11
CALAWASSIE ISLAND: 6.05
CHARLESTON AIRPORT: 4.84
BEAUFORT 2 N: 4.60
Some potentially damaging straight-line winds:

Intersting that both the NWS offices in Tampa and Melbourne mention in their long range discussion a low coming out of the Caribbean. I'll get more interested In 2 days when we are inside 5 days.
I don't get it. A gorilla is killed because a child was in serious danger. The public is outraged and it the lead story. This weekend dozens were shot in Chicago and 5 killed including a 14 yr old girl and CNN treats as no big deal. Unreal.
Quoting 269. Bucsboltsfan:

Intersting that both the NWS offices in Tampa and Melbourne mention in their long range discussion a low coming out of the Caribbean. I'll get more interested In 2 days when we are inside 5 days.
yes I'm watching this coming weekend's discussions..i noticed the oz run of the GFS and it had the Low crossing FLA just south of tampa bay..now the 6z has it crossing FLA way down south...oz euro still has it just south of tampa bay before crossing...way too early yet..now Navgem has it crossing Cuba and not touching florida ..guess its just something to watch wait and see what happens
It has started. The Seine river is overflowing in Paris, here in front of France-Televisions' offices:
Bonnie part 2??? no thank you...for such a non event as so many referred to her...I have had enough rain to last me at least a week or so....
Shear is still very high in the Caribbean (and across the Central Atlantic MDR) but lower near Florida, Cuba and the Bahamas, where Bonnie was able to spin-up before landfall. Have to see if a possible complex or wave can take advantage of that at some point but will remind folks that the average total number of storms for the June and July period is 1.7 storms.

Just noting that getting Bonnie around the start of the Atlantic Season does not mean that we are going to have a super active June-July; we may only get 1-2 more storms between now and August.



%uFFFD



Two Caribbean systems?

NW mentioned twice....

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
336 AM EDT TUE MAY 31 2016


Excerpts:

LOOKING AHEAD...BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS INDICATE BROAD LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN INTO THE SE GULF WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SURFACE FRONT OR TROUGH MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. MUCH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH THE LATTER PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE ECMWF AND GFS HAVE BEEN INDICATING BROAD LOW PRESSURE MOVING FROM THE S CENTRAL OR SW CARIBBEAN TO THE NW INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN LATE FRI THROUGH SAT...POTENTIALLY DUE TO THE INTERACTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE. UNCERTAINTY WITH THE FORECAST INCREASES THIS COMING WEEKEND DUE TO THE EVOLUTION OF THIS BROAD LOW AND TROPICAL WAVE.


and


LOOKING AHEAD...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ATTEMPT TO DEVELOP WEAK LOW PRESSURE E OF 70W LATE SAT INTO SUN BEFORE MOVING THE POTENTIAL LOW NE-E OF 65W QUICKLY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH THIS POSSIBLE SCENARIO.
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS National Hurricane Center MIAMI FL
730 PM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on newly formed
Tropical Depression Two, located about 400 miles southeast of the
coast of South Carolina.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

Routine issuance of the Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on
June 1, 2016.

&&

Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Two are issued under WMO
header WTNT32 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT2.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Two are issued under WMO
header WTNT22 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT2.

$$
Forecaster Brennan
the nw carib been so dry just got to think their going to get their share and maybe more.
Quoting 272. 999Ai2016:

It has started. The Seine river is overflowing in Paris, here in front of France-Televisions' offices:



Good BBC video here about the possibility of a Paris flood, with some archive footage of the 1910 flood. Click full screen.

Link
drove through the remnants of bonnie on the way south to florida yesterday. no big deal until we got to east central florida. a thunderstorm induced wreck multiple fatalities.
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BONNIE ADVISORY NUMBER 15...CORRECTED
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD AL022016
500 AM EDT TUE MAY 31 2016

CORRECTED FOR CHANGING LOCATION OF THE LOW.


...POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BONNIE CONTINUES TO PRODUCE LIGHT RAIN
ALONG THE EAST COAST...

SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.3N 78.9W
ABOUT 29 MILES...47 KM...S OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA.
ABOUT 65 MILES...105 KM...NNE OF CHARLESTOWN MUNI ARPT SOUTH
CAROLINA.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...15 MPH...25 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 4 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO WATCHES...WARNINGS...OR ADVISORIES ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM.

FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE WATCHES
AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF BONNIE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 33.3 NORTH...AND LONGITUDE 78.9 WEST. POST-TROPICAL
CYCLONE BONNIE IS CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY OFF THE NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA COAST.
RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ALSO SHOW LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS
ALONG THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS REPORTED
GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH IN THUNDERSTORMS OFFSHORE. POST-TROPICAL
CYCLONE BONNIE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SLOWLY DRIFTING NORTHEAST
OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS...TRACKING OFFSHORE OF THE MID-ATLANTIC
LATER THIS WEEK. THE MAIN THREAT WITH THIS STORM IS MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT MAINLY THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 15 MPH...25 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES.


HAZARDS
-------
RAINFALL...POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BONNIE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS
OF 3 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA...EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA...AND FAR SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA THROUGH THURSDAY.
THESE RAINS WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE THE THREAT FOR FLASH
FLOODING...PARTICULARLY IN REGIONS WHICH ARE ALREADY SATURATED
FROM PREVIOUS HEAVY RAINFALL.


RAINFALL TOTALS
---------------
SELECTED STORM TOTAL RAINFALL IN INCHES THROUGH 2 AM EDT

...DELAWARE...
WILMINGTON 2 NW 2.23
GLASGOW 2.01
NEW CASTLE 1.94
TOWNSEND 1.86
KITTS HUMMOCK 1.82
PORT PENN 1.64
WOODSIDE 1.57
PRICES CORNER 1.57
DOVER AFB 1.50
GEORGETOWN/SUSSEX CO ARPT 1.43

...GEORGIA...
BURTONS FERRY LANDING 8.85
OLIVER 2 SW 7.74
MARLOW 7.46
NEWINGTON 1 S 4.92
BLICHTON 1 ESE 4.62
ROCKY FORD 1 SSW 4.07
AUGUSTA/BUSH FIELD 2.69
SAVANNAH MUNI ARPT 1.57

...MASSACHUSETTS...
PLYMOUTH MUNI ARPT 2.31
NEW BEDFORD MUNI ARPT 1.59
BOSTON/LOGAN 1.13

...MARYLAND...
GALENA 3.51
CARVILLE 3 W 3.35
OCEAN CITY MUNI ARPT 2.77
SALISBURY RGNL ARPT 1.38
ANDREWS AFB/CAMP SPRINGS 1.20

...NORTH CAROLINA...
HATTERAS/BILLY MITCHELL AP 7.72
ERWIN/HARNETT COUNTY ARPT 2.50
RALEIGH/DURHAM INTL ARPT 2.45
LAURINBURG-MAXTON ARPT 2.07
FORT BRAGG/FAYETTEVILLE 1.47
CHAPEL HILL/WILLIAMS ARPT 1.26
WILMINGTON/NEW HANOVER CO ARPT 1.04

...NEW JERSEY...
HAMILTON TWP 4.52
EAST WINDSOR TWP 3.91
WESTAMPTON TWP 3.50
TRENTON 5 ESE 3.16
SPRINGDALE 3 W 3.14
MOUNT HOLLY WFO 3.08
SEWELL 2.93
TURNERSVILLE 2 S 2.76
MATAWAN 1 WSW 2.76
TOTTENVILLE 8 S 2.52
ATLANTIC CITY INTL AIRPORT 1.81
NEWARK INTL ARPT 1.60

...NEW YORK...
NEW YORK CITY 1.65
NEW YORK/LA GUARDIA 1.53

...PENNSYLVANIA...
JONAS 3.49
POHOPOCO CREEK 3.09
KRESGEVILLE 3.08
PALMERTON 6 ENE 3.00
WALNUTPORT 2.70
DREXEL HILL 2.51
PHILADELPHIA/NE PHIL. ARPT 2.35
PITTSBURGH/ALLEGHENY CO. ARPT 2.32
NORTHEAST PHILADELPHIA 2.30
PHILADELPHIA INTL ARPT 1.51

...RHODE ISLAND...
PROVIDENCE/PO WARWICK 1.50
WESTERLY STATE ARPT 1.34

...SOUTH CAROLINA...
OLD HOUSE 1 SSE 10.36
LENA 4 ENE 9.03
ARCHDALE 2 NE 8.61
FOLLY BEACH 2 WSW 6.28
JOHNS ISLAND 4 SE 6.24
ALLENDALE 1 S 6.14
HENDERSONVILLE 6.11 6.11
CALAWASSIE ISLAND 6.05
CHARLESTON AIRPORT 4.84
BEAUFORT 2 N 4.60

...VIRGINIA...
WAKEFIELD MUNI ARPT 2.56
RICHMOND 2.35
WALLOPS ISLAND 2.02
NORFOLK NAS 1.87
TINKER CREEK 1.39
LANGLEY AFB/HAMPTON 1.24
PETERSBURG 1.21
BUCHANAN 1 WNW 1.02


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT ADVISORY ISSUED AT 1100 AM EDT. PLEASE REFER TO YOUR LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR FURTHER INFORMATION ON THIS
STORM.
Someone, a few weeks ago, was asking what model was being used as a test for forecasting Hurricane tracks in SHIPS reports. The model was TABM(?) - and could find no information on it. I think I may have found what it was . . . . I can't find the old post.

Numerical Optimization and Validation of the Nearshore Wave Prediction System across the Tropical Atlantic Ocean Driven by the Official Tropcial Analysis and Forecast Branch/National Hurricane Center Gridded Wind Forecasts


Friday, 4 April 2014: 2:00 PM
Garden Ballroom (Town and Country Resort )
Alex Gibbs, NOAA, Miami, FL; and P. Santos, A. J. Van der Westhuysen, R. Padilla, H. D. Cobb III, J. R. Lewitsky, and C. Mattocks

The Nearshore Wave Prediction System (NWPS, Van der Westhuysen et al. 2013) has been configured and tested across the tropical Atlantic Ocean basin through the 2013 tropical season in experimental mode. Although this system was primarily designed to provide on-demand, high-resolution nearshore wave guidance consistent with the official National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) winds locally produced at the coastal Weather Forecast Office (WFO) level, further investigation through a hindcast simulation of Hurricane Isaac (2012) and daily simulations at the National Hurricane Center's (NHC) Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch (TAFB) over the course of the 2013 tropical season have proven applicable, even for basin-scale oceanic applications. The primary motivation attributed to this development is two-fold: to ensure consistency between the Tropical Cyclone Forecast Advisory (TCM) wind fields and wave heights forecasted by TAFB during tropical cyclone operations and to generate wave boundary conditions for the coastal WFOs running NWPS across a coastal domain within TAFB's Atlantic domain. Initializing each WFO's local wave model grid boundaries with the output of a coarser NHC-TAFB wave model run (forced by the official NHC wind forecast) will help achieve a seamless mosaic of digital marine forecasts between NHC-TAFB and coastal WFOs impacted during tropical cyclone events. This paper presents a description of the system design and purpose, along with the results of a validation period through the 2013 tropical season that compares the NWPS model results against: observations at 14 buoy stations across the Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico, WAVEWATCH III%uFFFD (WW3) and the ECMWF-Wave models. The numerical modeling challenges faced under operational forecasting constraints and the limitations associated with the gridded TCM Wind fields that are used to force the wave model will be demonstrated through field cases. Future enhancements necessary to further optimize the system will also be discussed.
References:
Van der Westhuysen, A.J., R. Padilla, P. Santos, A. Gibbs, D. Gaer, T. Nicolini, S. Tjaden, E.-M. Devaliere, H.L. Tolman, 2013: Development and validation of the Nearshore Wave Prediction System. Proc. 93rd AMS Annual Meeting, Austin, TX.

Recorded Presentation
Manuscript PDF

Edit: See 283 above for the correct answer for what was being looked for.
Quoting 282. daddyjames:

Someone, a few weeks ago, was asking what model was being used as a test for forecasting Hurricane tracks in SHIPS reports. The model was TABM(?) - and could find no information on it. I think I may have found what it was . . . . I can't find the old post.

Numerical Optimization and Validation of the Nearshore Wave Prediction System across the Tropical Atlantic Ocean Driven by the Official Tropcial Analysis and Forecast Branch/National Hurricane Center Gridded Wind Forecasts


Friday, 4 April 2014: 2:00 PM
Garden Ballroom (Town and Country Resort )
Alex Gibbs, NOAA, Miami, FL; and P. Santos, A. J. Van der Westhuysen, R. Padilla, H. D. Cobb III, J. R. Lewitsky, and C. Mattocks

The Nearshore Wave Prediction System (NWPS, Van der Westhuysen et al. 2013) has been configured and tested across the tropical Atlantic Ocean basin through the 2013 tropical season in experimental mode. Although this system was primarily designed to provide on-demand, high-resolution nearshore wave guidance consistent with the official National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) winds locally produced at the coastal Weather Forecast Office (WFO) level, further investigation through a hindcast simulation of Hurricane Isaac (2012) and daily simulations at the National Hurricane Center's (NHC) Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch (TAFB) over the course of the 2013 tropical season have proven applicable, even for basin-scale oceanic applications. The primary motivation attributed to this development is two-fold: to ensure consistency between the Tropical Cyclone Forecast Advisory (TCM) wind fields and wave heights forecasted by TAFB during tropical cyclone operations and to generate wave boundary conditions for the coastal WFOs running NWPS across a coastal domain within TAFB's Atlantic domain. Initializing each WFO's local wave model grid boundaries with the output of a coarser NHC-TAFB wave model run (forced by the official NHC wind forecast) will help achieve a seamless mosaic of digital marine forecasts between NHC-TAFB and coastal WFOs impacted during tropical cyclone events. This paper presents a description of the system design and purpose, along with the results of a validation period through the 2013 tropical season that compares the NWPS model results against: observations at 14 buoy stations across the Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico, WAVEWATCH III%uFFFD (WW3) and the ECMWF-Wave models. The numerical modeling challenges faced under operational forecasting constraints and the limitations associated with the gridded TCM Wind fields that are used to force the wave model will be demonstrated through field cases. Future enhancements necessary to further optimize the system will also be discussed.
References:
Van der Westhuysen, A.J., R. Padilla, P. Santos, A. Gibbs, D. Gaer, T. Nicolini, S. Tjaden, E.-M. Devaliere, H.L. Tolman, 2013: Development and validation of the Nearshore Wave Prediction System. Proc. 93rd AMS Annual Meeting, Austin, TX.

Recorded Presentation
Manuscript PDF


I got info on it from NHC:

"The TAB models are basically a next generation version of the BAM models, so TABM is the medium layer-steering version, just like BAMM was. Some of the GFS model grib1 output that is used in the BAM model code will be going away soon and we had to create a new version of the models."

They are now listed in nhc_techlist.dat.
Quoting 276. LargoFl:

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS National Hurricane Center MIAMI FL
730 PM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016



that was from 4 days go, why are you posting it again?
Quoting 283. nrtiwlnvragn:



I got info on it from NHC:

"The TAB models are basically a next generation version of the BAM models, so TABM is the medium layer-steering version, just like BAMM was. Some of the GFS model grib1 output that is used in the BAM model code will be going away soon and we had to create a new version of the models."

They are now listed in nhc_techlist.dat.

Ah cool! Let me modify what I posted as to not confuse anyone else.
testing
for the one that are still haveing issue trying too post on here try loging out and then loging back in that fixed what ever issue that i had that keeep me from posting in here for the last 12 too 18hrs or so
well the weekly ENSO values are in and the Nino 3.4 region has bombed to la nina neutral at -0.1
looking at the water temp anomaly map there's still a small pocket of heat in the nino 4 region but the rest well....it looks like below average anomalies are rolling in.....so as we say goodbye to the boy child pass out the cigars...ITS A GIRL!


the SOI is also responding as it is in La Nina neutral too......

Quoting 291. 999Ai2016:



Absolutely pathological.
Modern times: the permanent Azores Low, Icelandic High, Kola Low. Not even 'semi'-permanent.
Is the "Invest 92" thing showing up a bug or are the remnants of Bonnie seriously being monitored for redevelopment?
Quoting 294. HurricaneFan:

Is the "Invest 92" thing showing up a bug or are the remnants of Bonnie seriously being monitored for redevelopment?


Yes it seem like that Bonnie is now 92L
Brazos River Basin Reservoirs
Monitored Water Supply Reservoirs are 98.3% full on 2016-05-31






What a difference from a year (and two years) ago,
The cooling in the equatorial Pacific waters continues (in Neutral values now) and we have to see whether the cooling continues into La Nina territory over the next two months. If it does continue, it will slow down the E-Pac season downstream as you can see that the current invest is located in the warmer area with cooler waters (and very dry air) out ahead:



Quoting 274. weathermanwannabe:

Shear is still very high in the Caribbean (and across the Central Atlantic MDR) but lower near Florida, Cuba and the Bahamas, where Bonnie was able to spin-up before landfall. Have to see if a possible complex or wave can take advantage of that at some point but will remind folks that the average total number of storms for the June and July period is 1.7 storms.

Just noting that getting Bonnie around the start of the Atlantic Season does not mean that we are going to have a super active June-July; we may only get 1-2 more storms between now and August.



%uFFFD




Could be 2 storms now, then nothing until August..... we've seen it before ....
Good morning all, I woke up to see that Bonnie is now dead, according to the NHC. Now we can focus more towards the Caribbean where it is very active right now.
Quoting 297. GeoffreyWPB:



Can anyone post a picture of the Gulf Stream? My bad I am on my phone.
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/1/19 /Golfstrom.jpg
Hey birdsrock2016,

I see that you rode out Katrina in Boca, where abouts? I'm near Deerfield Beach Blvd.
Big blow up of storms near the Bahamas
That blow-up of convection North of Hispanola is due to the baroclinic interaction of the area with the ULL/Tutt Cell currently draped from North to South over the Bahamas but something to keep an eye on if it persists and shear drops. 
 

Quoting 301. FIUStormChaser:


Can anyone post a picture of the Gulf Stream? My bad I am on my phone.


gator23 , I was in Port St. Lucie at that time. The situation was not as bad up North , I heard that the power was out for almost a week, but ours was only out for 2 days.
Interestingly enough, for the first time in its life the remaining swirl of ex-Bonnie is firing convection on all quadrants around the circulation.
Quoting 305. weathermanwannabe:

That blow-up of convection North of Hispanola is due to the baroclinic interaction of the area with the ULL/Tutt Cell currently draped from North to South over the Bahamas but something to keep an eye on if it persists and shear drops. 
 


good stuff! You caught that same image I was looking at.
Gator 23, I have been all over Florida in my 17 years here. I have lived in North Florida , Central Florida, and South Florida(Palm Beach, Broward, and Dade counties)
Quoting 310. birdsrock2016:

Gator 23, I have been all over Florida in my 17 years here. I have lived in North Florida , Central Florida, and South Florida(Palm Beach, Broward, and Dade counties)

Check your WU Mail.
closer look at that blow up near the bahamas
Quoting 313. Grothar:




So given recent events we can expect some areas of Texas to receive much more?
Quoting 306. Sfloridacat5:






Thank you!
Quoting 307. birdsrock2016:

gator23 , I was in Port St. Lucie at that time. The situation was not as bad up North , I heard that the power was out for almost a week, but ours was only out for 2 days.


Katrina or Wilma? For the power being out.
Quoting 314. Grothar:




EX-Bonnie appears to be regaining a little structure based off radar.
Quoting 317. daddyjames:



Katrina or Wilma? For the power being out.


Wilma, thanks for correcting my mistake. Katrina was more towards South Florida than near Port St. Lucie northward.
Shocking video shows moment a huge swarm of locusts attacks farms and devastates crops in Russia as officials declare a state of emergency
Dailymail.co.uk, May 30.
"A state of emergency has been declared in southern Russia after a huge swarm of locusts spread over 70,000 hectares devastating crops. In near apocalyptic scenes millions of the insects have caused drivers to swerve to avoid them. Officials say at least 10% of the south's farmland has been destroyed - with aircraft used in an attempt to disrupt them. The Russian Ministry of Agriculture has declared a state of emergency but seem powerless to combat the locusts."
You know something is up when the most reliable model shows a strong TS hitting Florida. Something to deff watch, the EURO isn't playing games, never does.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
You also know something is up when Grothar posts a close up of a blob...................................
Quoting 319. birdsrock2016:



Wilma, thanks for correcting my mistake. Katrina was more towards South Florida than near Port St. Lucie northward.


I was there in South Miami as Katrina passed over, kinda took us by surprise. I did not think it had impacted anyone further north than Broward County. So, though you may have not gotten the correct storm. :)
Today is the three year anniversary of the El Reno tornado. But while that is the case it is also the 31 year anniversary of a deadly tornado outbreak in Ohio Valley/Northeast/Ontario that I'm surprised that I've never heard about before today.

http://www.ustornadoes.com/2015/05/31/may-31-1985 -a-tornado-outbreak-out-of-place/