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Bonnie barely alive

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 12:58 PM GMT on July 24, 2010

Tropical Depression Bonnie is barely clinging to life. Wind shear of 25 knots and dry air from an upper-level low pressure system over the Gulf of Mexico are taking their toll on Bonnie, which is now just a swirl of low clouds accompanied by a small clump of heavy thunderstorms on the north side of the center of circulation. These thunderstorms are now visible on New Orleans long range radar, and will arrive in coastal Louisiana early this afternoon, well ahead of the center. The Hurricane Hunters are in Bonnie, and have found a much weaker storm with top winds of just 30 mph.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Tropical Depression Bonnie. At the time, Bonnie had sustained winds of 30 mph.

Forecast for Bonnie
The current NHC forecast for Bonnie looks good, with the storm making landfall in Louisiana near 9pm CDT Saturday night. According to the latest tide information, this will be near the time of low tide. This will result in much less oil entering the Louisiana marshlands than occurred during Hurricane Alex in June. That storm brought a storm surge of 2 - 4 feet and sustained winds of 20 - 30 mph that lasted for several days, including several high tide cycles. Bonnie will be lucky to be a tropical depression at landfall, and should only create a storm surge of 1 - 2 feet that will come at low tide. This will result in a storm tide level that will inundate land to at most one foot above ground level.

Resources for the BP oil disaster
Map of oil spill location from the NOAA Satellite Services Division
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Elsewhere in the tropics
There are no other threat areas of concern today. The only model calling for possible tropical development in the next week is the NOGAPS model, which predicts a strong tropical disturbance could form off the coast of Nicaragua in the Southwest Caribbean about a week from now.

Next update
The next updates will be by wunderground meteorologists Rob Carver and Shaun Tanner. I'm taking advantage of a break in the tropical action to take a few days away. I'll be back blogging on Friday, at the latest.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting MississippiWx:


How do you check that?

go to the directory page and scroll down abit and u will see this:
Community Participation:
2147 comments and 40 entries posted by all members in the last 24 hours.

You have posted 7 entries in your own blog.

You have posted 6920 comments in all blogs.



3502. xcool
3504. whs2012
Quoting MississippiWx:
The system over the Yucatan is beginning to look pretty interesting. Need to check surface observations for a center trying to form at the surface. It has a very pronounced spin in the mid-levels. Just like TD2, it is trying to organize over land.



Do you think the NHC will designate him an invest once he gets into the GOM?
Quoting MississippiWx:
The system over the Yucatan is beginning to look pretty interesting. Need to check surface observations for a center trying to form at the surface. It has a very pronounced spin in the mid-levels. Just like TD2, it is trying to organize over land.


hmmm interesting at least
Quoting ElConando:


I was waiting to see what happened to it over land. You may be right, sneaky devil it is.


Yeah, just look at the cloud pattern. It's pretty indicative of something trying to form at the surface. It might fail, but it's trying. Look at the loop of it and it's even more interesting.

BTW, not much of a downward pulse of the MJO over the Gulf and Western Caribbean:

3507. tkeith
3503. PensacolaDoug 3:44 PM CDT on July 26, 2010

classic...
anyways g2g for now bbl
Any storm out of the ITCZ will follow the steering into the GOM at the moment. But 2 weeks down is anyone's guess.
Yucatan friction might help spin up a low level center
3511. xcool
lots of moisture in Gulf
Handle: KEEPEROFTHEGATE
Status: No-Ads Paid Membership
Expiration: 2011-07-21 03:04:29
Signed Up: 2006-07-15 14:37:36


2157 comments and 40 entries posted by all members in the last 24 hours.

You have posted 75 entries in your own blog.

You have posted 27759 comments in all blogs.
Ok I give up...Where's the "Directory Page"?
Quoting Tazmanian:
am heading for 60,000 commets soon


then 70,000 commets by late AUGS


then 80,000 commets OCT


then 90,000 commets NOV


then 100,000 commets by the end of year


comments caster!
at 10N/35W there is a nic low spining
looks like where Alex was over the Yucatan
Quoting whs2012:


Do you think the NHC will designate him an invest once he gets into the GOM?


If they can declare 99L an invest (which was over land), then I could definitely see them declaring this an invest if it persists.
Quoting btwntx08:

go to the directory page and scroll down abit and u will see this:
Community Participation:
2147 comments and 40 entries posted by all members in the last 24 hours.

You have posted 7 entries in your own blog.

You have posted 6920 comments in all blogs.





I was also looking for that. Where is the directory page located?
Quoting wildheron:


comments caster!



yup that my name dont ware it out
3523. hcubed
Quoting MTWX:

EP?? I'm stationed at Columbus AFB... Airfield Systems Technician ( prior METNAV)


Yeah, my SECOND round as an instructor.

Mil, taught my career field (Ground Radar). Then back for a second round teaching EP.

All in all, been here since '85.
3524. unf97
Quoting MississippiWx:


Yeah, just look at the cloud pattern. It's pretty indicative of something trying to form at the surface. It might fail, but it's trying. Look at the loop of it and it's even more interesting.

BTW, not much of a downward pulse of the MJO over the Gulf and Western Caribbean:



Good observation. As a matter of fact, it seems as if the system became even better defined in its passage over land across the Yucatan throughout the day. There is a definite mid-level circulation, and I won't be surprised at all if it works itself to the surface as the system moves into the BOC. At least it is something to observe in the immediate short term.
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no way we get 10 name storms in AUG..now we are being silly here
3527. breald
Quoting MississippiWx:


There will be plenty of warm water from Brownsville, TX all the way up to Boston, MA this year. The ridge will probably stay strong enough most of the year to protect the Northeast, but North and South Carolina/Virginia might have a shot at a major this year.


So the NE does not have to worry about any storm this year? That is a relief.
Guys-

Just go to the blogs page and scroll down a bit. Look on the right side of the screen and you'll see it. It shows exactly what btwn was showing.
believe it or not land interaction is what it needs, help spin up the low level center. I've seen numerous systems struggle with a low level circulation to later look better over land with a well defined circulation
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Ok I give up...Where's the "Directory Page"?
"member blogs"
am watching a wave at 10N 35W

Link
Quoting breald:


So the NE does not have to worry about any storm this year? That is a relief.


No no no. I just said MOST of the year. The ridge tends to break down at times because of trofs and if a hurricane were to time it just right, it could sneak up the Eastern Seaboard without weakening too much due to all of the warm water. Of course, shear would probably increase due to a trof, but you never know.
Quoting breald:


So the NE does not have to worry about any storm this year? That is a relief.


Never say never....... until the end of the season......
Quoting whs2012:


Do you think the NHC will designate him an invest once he gets into the GOM?


They'll prolly wait untill its inland laike they did with 99L.
Quoting jasoniscoolman2010x:
no way we get 10 name storms in AUG..now we are being silly here


Go away
yup the good O me is forcasting 10 name storm for AUG
YAY ME BOO downcaster
Savannah, Georgia (Airport)
Updated: 1 hr 4 min 59 sec ago
Mostly Cloudy
101 °F
Mostly Cloudy
Humidity: 41%
Dew Point: 73 °F
Wind: 7 mph from the SW
Pressure: 29.98 in (Falling)
Heat Index: 112 °F



Air temp a little higher, but lower dewpoints mean it won't hit 125F Heat Index again today- that was torture. Still too darn hot, though, even for a native...

Lots o' moisture in the GOMEX for a downward MJO.

Quoting StormW:
Evening!


Evening storm! Check out post 3430.. what'cha think?
3545. Squid28
Geeeez, I guess I am going to have to start posting more 198, I mean 109 comments since I joined during the first year of the good dr's blog.
Thanx Nitty.

I'm closing in on 2300 comments1
Surface obs don't support anything at the surface as winds in Campeche, MX are out of the east when they should be out of the north or northeast if a surface circulation were present. I did, however, find it interesting that the pressure is 1010mb there and it's not even where a possible low level center might be forming.

2010 Storms
All Active Year


Atlantic

East Pacific

Central Pacific

West Pacific
91W.INVEST
Indian Ocean

Southern Hemisphere
3549. breald
Quoting MississippiWx:


No no no. I just said MOST of the year. The ridge tends to break down at times because of trofs and if a hurricane were to time it just right, it could sneak up the Eastern Seaboard without weakening too much due to all of the warm water. Of course, shear would probably increase due to a trof, but you never know.


Thanks. I am not good at reading maps so I have no clue what ridge you are talking about. Is a ridge and High pressure the same?
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Thanx Nitty.

I'm closing in on 2300 comments1


This is what I got.

You have posted 10474 comments in all blogs.
Convection on the wane over the Yucatan
Quoting mikatnight:


Talk about classic...



Oh, now I've gone and done it again.


Democaster LOL
3553. xcool
hmmm mid level circulation
Quoting StormW:


ULL north of there, and a surface trof over the Peninsula.


Thanks Storm! Just looks interesting.
This is how many I have....

145,674,000 comments in all blogs.
Daytime heating is actually helping the system over the Yucatan as the heat destabilizes the surface, causing thunderstorms to grow. The friction is also helping the storm develop a better circulation. A 1010mb pressure about 50 miles away from the "center" isn't too shabby either.
3557. angiest
Quoting breald:


Thanks. I am not good at reading maps so I have no clue what ridge you are talking about. Is a ridge and High pressure the same?


Yes, more completely referred to as a ridge of high pressure.
I win
Quoting CybrTeddy:


This is what I got.

You have posted 10474 comments in all blogs.


We need a new hobby!
Quoting breald:


Thanks. I am not good at reading maps so I have no clue what ridge you are talking about. Is a ridge and High pressure the same?


Yes, same thing. A ridge placement similar to 2005 is more than likely going to be the setup in the heart of the season. If you recall, a few storms did sneak up the East Coast that year, but didn't amount to much in the NE.
3562. xcool
Quoting Patrap:


.."Tangerine,Tangerine, Living reflection of a dream"..






Brother, you are OD'ing on Zep today...what a way to go
3565. angiest
Quoting rainraingoaway:


Thanks Storm! Just looks interesting.


Where was that post? I don't see it...
tom brady wanted a hurricane to hit the northeast he is crazy.
Quoting mcluvincane:


Go away


no way we get 10 name storms in AUG..now we are being silly here,,,haha watch i bet we get two storms in aug...hahahahahaha..
****Bolded Selections were modified by me****

MY GUESTIMATE ABOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE 2010 SEASON:

We are nearing the end of July, with already having two weaker type storms; this puts us on the above average side of climatology (technically speaking). Although, with all the 2010 pre hype, it appears slow and boring, althogh boring is good to most during any storm season.

I put the odds of squeeking out one more weaker type storm in July at 40%, something probably close to home.

August, especially beginning after the 7th, should be a lot less "boring". We will easily see more than one named system at a time that is being tracked. We definately will see a lot more red circles from the NHC; seems mom through away the other colors. I expect no less than six named storms in August, and could be as high as seven or eight(my guess 7). This would put us at eight to ten named storms by the end of August at a minimum.
September will be, and usually is the month to watch and perhaps dread during a storm season, this year should be especially painful to some in the U.S.. I anticipate no less than seven named storms during September, where there could be three storms going at once at some point. The named storm total I guess would be seven but could be as high as nine. This puts us at between 13 and 16 named storms by the end of September 2010.

October is usually the time during most seasons where things really begin to unwind storm wise. I expect this year to NOT follow suite. I see no less than four named storms forming in October 2010, and feel we could easily see five named storms. By this time all those predicting high numbers will be saying "I told you so" those predicting or changing their predictions to numbers under 15 will slither back into their holes. By the end of October we will have seen between 18 and 22 storms.

November should quiet down a lot, however one or two storms could still pop up; I expect one.

December is always much quieter in the tropics, and after our 2010 season, quietness will be welcome; as far as totals for December, possibly one storm, I guess Zero.

This puts us at between 19 and 23 storms for the 2010 storm season. My guess, 20 Storms, 14 Hurricanes and 5 intense Hurricanes.

To guess regarding landfall locations, is a laughing matter; my cone covers all of North America, Central America, and Some of South America, and parts of Europe. But seriously, do to early season indications I would guess all points south of a line from Upper Texas Coast to North Georgia Coast need to be extra prepared to protect life and property this year.
Storm, what do you think about the area over the Yucatan. From what I've seen, it's still purely mid-level, but it's trying to get to the surface it appears.
Quoting jasoniscoolman2010x:


no way we get 10 name storms in AUG..now we are being silly here,,,haha watch i bet we get two storms in aug...hahahahahaha..


I'll take that bet. I bet bet we get more than two. Now what are we betting?
3572. xcool
Humidity: 74%
Wind Speed: ENE 23 MPH
Barometer:




Humidity: 78%
Dew Point: 75 F
Wind: 14.0 mphfrom the SE
Wind Gust: 24.0 mph
Progreso, Mexico
Quoting earthlydragonfly:


Democaster LOL


It was a hilarious video, not sure why it got pulled while music videos are allowed to stay, but I'm not complaining, I like the music vids, and post 'em myself upon occasion.
Quoting RitaEvac:
This is how many I have....

145,674,000 comments in all blogs.
Let's see: Let's suppose 10 seconds average per comment so that's 1,456,740,000 seconds.

1,456,740,000 sec * (1 min/60 sec) = 2,427,900 min

2,427,900 min * (1 hr/60 min) = 40,465 hr

40,465 hr * (1 day/24 hr) = 1686 days, 1 hour

That's over four and one-half years of your life posting on this blog! ... LOL
Quoting xcool:
Humidity: 74%
Wind Speed: ENE 23 MPH
Barometer:


Where is that observation?
wow!!!!
3578. unf97
NHC has analyzed a surface trough moving through the Yucatan per TWD at 2 p.m.

AN UPPER RIDGE AND UPPER
TROUGH IN THE NW CARIBBEAN COUPLED WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS S OF 23N THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL FROM W CUBA
TO THE E YUCATAN PENINSULA BETWEEN 84W-89W. THIS SCENARIO IS
KEEPING THE GULF RATHER ACTIVE THIS AFTERNOON
3579. xcool
MississippiWx


Link

go here..
Quoting LightningCharmer:
Let's see: Let's suppose 10 seconds average per comment so that's 1,456,740,000 seconds.

1,456,740,000 sec * (1 min/60 sec) = 2,427,900 min

2,427,900 min * (1 hr/60 min) = 40,465 hr

40,465 hr * (1 day/24 hr) = 1686 days, 1 hour

That's over four and one-half years of your life posting on this blog! ... LOL




VERY SAD!! LOL
Quoting StormW:


It's possible it may be trying to, however, upper level winds are out of the NW, and mid level shear is about 15 kts. Waiting for the 18Z run of the shear forecast to see if things may change.


On visible, it actually appears to have an anticyclone over at least the northeastern/eastern part of the system.
3582. xcool
New GFS delayed by one day July 28
3583. xcool
3584. unf97
Quoting MississippiWx:


On visible, it actually appears to have an anticyclone over at least the northeastern/eastern part of the system.


There is a upper level ridge present over the NW Caribbean, as indicated on the TWD by NHC.
3585. xcool



nice Lower Convergence 40w & gom
Things that make you go, "hmmmm."

Campeche, MX (west of the circulation) is reporting this:

Humidity: 74%
Wind Speed: ENE 23 MPH
Barometer: 1010 mb
Dewpoint: 73°F
Heat Index: 87°F
Wind Chill: 82°F
3587. xcool
MississippiWx see .that why i posting itt
3588. xcool
:0
Quoting xcool:
MississippiWx see .that why i posting itt


Yeah, thanks for the website. Good stuff!
Quoting StormW:


It's possible it may be trying to, however, upper level winds are out of the NW, and mid level shear is about 15 kts. Waiting for the 18Z run of the shear forecast to see if things may change.


If you use the PREDICT website, you can get hourly updates of CIMSS products such as shear. Under Satellite Products -> GOES. Since this is a very new product can't vouch for it's validity, but it is a CIMSS product.
Quoting MississippiWx:
Things that make you go, "hmmmm."

Campeche, MX (west of the circulation) is reporting this:

Humidity: 74%
Wind Speed: ENE 23 MPH
Barometer: 1010 mb
Dewpoint: 73°F
Heat Index: 87°F
Wind Chill: 82°F


If a surface center is truly trying to form, this site should start seeing more northeasterly winds, then north.
3592. xcool
MississippiWx welcome..
3593. unf97
Quoting MississippiWx:
Things that make you go, "hmmmm."

Campeche, MX (west of the circulation) is reporting this:

Humidity: 74%
Wind Speed: ENE 23 MPH
Barometer: 1010 mb
Dewpoint: 73°F
Heat Index: 87°F
Wind Chill: 82°F


With that pressure reading, no question there is something over the Yucatan that's trying to brew that's for sure.
3594. xcool
Guess we'll find out soon .
3596. unf97
Quoting StormW:


Thanks nrt.

Guy's, I still don't see an upper level ridge over it. I see a diffluent flow aloft.



Good evening Storm.

You think the upper ridge NHC analyzed in the NW Caribbean has yet to move over the Yucatan disturbance?
3597. xcool
Pressure: 1009
Quoting sebastianflorida:
****Bolded Selections were modified by me****

MY GUESTIMATE ABOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE 2010 SEASON:

We are nearing the end of July, with already having two weaker type storms; this puts us on the above average side of climatology (technically speaking). Although, with all the 2010 pre hype, it appears slow and boring, althogh boring is good to most during any storm season.

I put the odds of squeeking out one more weaker type storm in July at 40%, something probably close to home.

August, especially beginning after the 7th, should be a lot less "boring". We will easily see more than one named system at a time that is being tracked. We definately will see a lot more red circles from the NHC; seems mom through away the other colors. I expect no less than six named storms in August, and could be as high as seven or eight(my guess 7). This would put us at eight to ten named storms by the end of August at a minimum.
September will be, and usually is the month to watch and perhaps dread during a storm season, this year should be especially painful to some in the U.S.. I anticipate no less than seven named storms during September, where there could be three storms going at once at some point. The named storm total I guess would be seven but could be as high as nine. This puts us at between 13 and 16 named storms by the end of September 2010.

October is usually the time during most seasons where things really begin to unwind storm wise. I expect this year to NOT follow suite. I see no less than four named storms forming in October 2010, and feel we could easily see five named storms. By this time all those predicting high numbers will be saying "I told you so" those predicting or changing their predictions to numbers under 15 will slither back into their holes. By the end of October we will have seen between 18 and 22 storms.

November should quiet down a lot, however one or two storms could still pop up; I expect one.

December is always much quieter in the tropics, and after our 2010 season, quietness will be welcome; as far as totals for December, possibly one storm, I guess Zero.

This puts us at between 19 and 23 storms for the 2010 storm season. My guess, 20 Storms, 14 Hurricanes and 5 intense Hurricanes.

To guess regarding landfall locations, is a laughing matter; my cone covers all of North America, Central America, and Some of South America, and parts of Europe. But seriously, do to early season indications I would guess all points south of a line from Upper Texas Coast to North Georgia Coast need to be extra prepared to protect life and property this year.


Reasonable forecast. I still think we may get a tad bit less than 20 named storms this year but still close, probably 15 to 18 which still makes it a very active season and 8 to 10 hurricanes of which 3 or 4 are intense. Something like 2008, 2004 or maybe 1995. Not exactly like 2005, but way closer to 2005 than last year was to '05.
Quoting StormW:


Thanks nrt.

Guy's, I still don't see an upper level ridge over it. I see a diffluent flow aloft.



2015Z


Just a thought...I compared the 850mb vorticity maps from that website to the normal CIMSS website and they were different with the vorticity over the Yucatan. With the one you just posted, there was hardly any vorticity with the Yucatan disturbance, which is definitely wrong by looking at satellite imagery. The info from the map you just posted may not be entirely accurate.
gotta look at it on satellite, there is anticyclonic flow on the NE and E sides


Satellite presentation continues to improve.
3605. xcool
MississippiWx i agree
Pressure down to 1009mb in Campeche.
Quoting MississippiWx:
Pressure down to 1009mb in Campeche.


vehrry interestink
shortwaveloop
3608. xcool
from 1011 to now 1009mb
3609. xcool
nice spin shortwaveloop .imo
I found this kinda interesting as well:

Forecast for Campeche, MX

Afternoon...Mostly cloudy with winds from the northnorthwest at 17 mph.
Evening...Mostly cloudy with winds from the northnorthwest at 17 mph. Changing to rain and overcast skies with winds from the northnorthwest at 17 mph.

The winds have been blowing out of the east northeast at 20-25mph this afternoon.
Quoting MississippiWx:
Pressure down to 1009mb in Campeche.


Will be interesting to see if it can survive the Yucatan.. we could see some 'mischief' once it gets into the BOC.
3612. xcool
hmmm
3613. KORBIN
Hey Storm,

If something were to form in the W. Carribean over the Yuct. would it continue west or could it be pulled N or NE?
3615. unf97
Quoting MississippiWx:
I found this kinda interesting as well:

Forecast for Campeche, MX

Afternoon...Mostly cloudy with winds from the northnorthwest at 17 mph.
Evening...Mostly cloudy with winds from the northnorthwest at 17 mph. Changing to rain and overcast skies with winds from the northnorthwest at 17 mph.

The winds have been blowing out of the east northeast at 20-25mph this afternoon.


Well, based on that forecast, a Low pressure system would move either right over them or just to the north of Campeche. Another 1mb drop in barometric pressure this hour I see. As I stated in a few posts back, with such pressure readings, no doubt we have something trying to brew at the surface there for sure. We'll see if it happens.
Upper-level winds do not favor significant development of this disturbance, as per the 12z GFS wind shear forecast.

Link
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Will be interesting to see if it can survive the Yucatan.. we could see some 'mischief' once it gets into the BOC.


Storm doesn't seem to be too impressed with it, so I shouldn't be either. However, I'm just being a little stubborn and giving it a little chance. :-)
3619. xcool
move to NW
Quoting MississippiWx:


Satellite presentation continues to improve.

My computer chose the wrong time to be slow.
Quoting MississippiWx:


Storm doesn't seem to be too impressed with it, so I shouldn't be either. However, I'm just being a little stubborn and giving it a little chance. :-)


Because you're incredibly bored, and desperate to have something to track. :P
3622. xcool
WeatherNerdPR .time for new pc
Quoting KoritheMan:


Because you're incredibly bored, and desperate to have something to track. :P


Couldn't have said it better myself! LOL.
3624. unf97
Quoting StormW:
Here's the only evidence I could find of a ridge in the NW Caribbean:

img src="Photobucket" alt="" />


Thanks Storm for this map. So, it is a relatively small ridge in the NW Caribbean.
CMC is now with the ECMWF on Caribbean development (the one the ECMWF shows in the Yucatan Channel 192 hours)
3626. xcool
Quoting MississippiWx:


Couldn't have said it better myself! LOL.


Based on the fact that the GFS has been steadily growing less robust with the current downward MJO pulse, in both its strength and longevity, we should begin to see activity ramp up again by the second week of August. At that point, we could see a parade of storms.

We'll have Colin soon. Don't worry.
Winds at Campeche switched around to ESE, which would not support any evidence of a surface reflection.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
CMC is now with the ECMWF on Caribbean development (the one the ECMWF shows in the Yucatan Channel 192 hours)


That's not saying much, though. The CMC develops everything.
Quoting KoritheMan:


Based on the fact that the GFS has been steadily growing less robust with the current downward MJO pulse, in both its strength and longevity, we should begin to see activity ramp up again by the second week of August. At that point, we could see a parade of storms.

We'll have Colin soon. Don't worry.


And Danielle maybe too.. 12z ECMWF has a 1000 mb low in the Yucatan Channel and another system right behind it.


Quoting CybrTeddy:


And Danielle maybe too.. 12z ECMWF has a 1000 mb low in the Yucatan Channel and another system right behind it.




That's certainly a possibility.
3632. unf97
Quoting MississippiWx:
Winds at Campeche switched around to ESE, which would not support any evidence of a surface reflection.


Yep. For now, it's just a surface trough. But, we at least can watch it and see what this feature does if it remains intact once it enters the BOC.
Quoting KoritheMan:


That's not saying much, though. The CMC develops everything.


Yep it even developed my cousins son.
3634. xcool
interesting to see soon get in water.
Quoting KoritheMan:


That's not saying much, though. The CMC develops everything.


Alone the CMC is completely worthless, however its jumped on board with the ECMWF gives it a little more merit.
Quoting unf97:


Yep. For now, it's just a surface trough. But, we at least can watch it and see what this feature does if it remains intact once it enters the BOC.


Wouldn't it techinally be better for it not to develop a surface circulation until it gets into the BOC?
GFS para 18z 'kinda' shows the ECMWF's systems.. weaker however.

3638. unf97
Quoting ElConando:


Wouldn't it techinally be better for it not to develop a surface circulation until it gets into the BOC?


Well, for the obvious reasoning that once it gets over the open waters of the BOC, the odds of it developing would be better for it. However, the upper level environment overall certainly isn't exactly perfect for the system either, so any development would be slow. But, the pressure reading at 1009 mb at Campeche is respectable, so whatever is there at the mid-levels is trying very hard to reflect at the surface. This is simply a feature out there we can observe rather than be bored during this temporary lull we are in at the moment.
Quoting ElConando:


Yep it even developed my cousins son.


LOL
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Alone the CMC is completely worthless, however its jumped on board with the ECMWF gives it a little more merit.


Meh. I'd wait on the GFS.
3641. Walshy
.

Quoting KoritheMan:


Meh. I'd wait on the GFS.


Like to point out, the ECMWF has been developing a Caribbean system since 12z the 24th.
3643. scCane
Wow just some strong storms here in the midlands of SC. One storm just had an estimated wind gust of 80 mph in Irmo.
3644. unf97
Quoting scCane:
Wow just some strong storms here in the midlands of SC. One storm just had an estimated wind gust of 80 mph in Irmo.


Apparently, that was a rather impressive downdraft burst from an intense thunderstorm cell. Hurricane force gusts! Wow. Hope there wasn't much damage in your area.
3646. scCane
Quoting unf97:


Apparently, that was a rather impressive downdraft burst from an intense thunderstorm cell. Hurricane force gusts! Hope there wsn't much damge in your area.

I haven't seen any damage but I've heard plenty of sirens going off and smelled smoke outside. So I'm assuming there's some damage somewhere around here.
Just checked in for the day...any potential for development in the GOM?

3649. bjdsrq
Quoting CybrTeddy:
CMC is now with the ECMWF on Caribbean development (the one the ECMWF shows in the Yucatan Channel 192 hours)


192 hours... um, ok.
3650. xcool
StormW yeah anticyclone
3651. unf97
Quoting scCane:

I haven't seen any damage but I've heard plenty of sirens going off and smelled smoke outside. So I'm assuming there's some damage somewhere around here.


Yeah, looking at satellite imagery, very impressive convective tops across South Carolina. Yeah, lots of severe weather today across that state.
3652. Patrap
good afternoon storm w and guys im going to start giving a weeks forecast on the tropics as to what i am observing right now and i will give my reasons for the way i feel like i do.....looking at the satellite pic ir and wv i see much of the atlantic is covered with dry air i would estimate a lttle more then half..so if any waves come off the coast of africa this week they are toast..the dry air will perch them...now for the caribbean which is not much better it's dealing with lots of westerly shear and anything tries to come in to the islands will face what happened to bonnie...so my conclusion here i see no tropical activity from july 26 to august 2nd..now the only way something could develop is in the gom due to a front stalling...i see and ull in the gom south of the la coast but this will not develop into anything...so i will post again aug 2nd unless something forms in the gom...thanks storm w for all that information you gave me i did read everything but you know as well as i do weather changes..we will see what wil happen but im very sure we dont have anything to worry about until aug 2nd....i will repost again..
3655. xcool
keep eye AOI
Quoting bjdsrq:


192 hours... um, ok.


ECMWF is pretty reliable even long range like that if it shows strong consistency. It nailed Alex, Bill, Fred, ect.
3657. unf97
Thanks Storm for that map update. Looks as if an anticyclone indeed is trying to move in over the Yucatan disturbance from the east.

3658. Dakster
Quoting ElConando:


Yep it even developed my cousins son.


LOL....

But, isn't he also your brother?

The CMC is rather aggressive in terms of predicting cyclogenesis.
3659. xcool
Yucatan Pressure: 29.82 Falling
Good evening!
3661. xcool


Quoting Dakster:


LOL....

But, isn't he also your brother?

The CMC is rather aggressive in terms of predicting cyclogenesis.


Aye.

It can be good for track, though. In most cases.
new picture
3664. unf97
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Good evening!


Good evening.
3665. guygee
Global Tropics Hazards/Benefits Assessment - Climate Prediction Center - Issued: 7/26/2010 (pdf)
Week 1 Outlook – Valid: July 27 – August 2, 2010
1. An increased chance for below-average rainfall for areas of the Indian Ocean. The progression of the MJO and numerical forecast guidance support drier-than-normal conditions in this area. Confidence: Moderate
2. An increased chance for above-average rainfall for from India to Southeast Asia to the western North Pacific. The enhanced phase of the MJO, developing La Nina conditions, and above-normal sea surface temperatures (SSTs) favor elevated rainfall. Confidence: High
3. An increased chance for tropical cyclogenesis for waters near the Philippines. Subseasonal coherent tropical variability, above-normal SSTs, and areas of weak vertical wind shear increase the threat for tropical development. Confidence: Moderate
4. An increased chance for below-average rainfall for parts of the western Pacific. Developing La Nina conditions and numerical weather forecast guidance support suppressed rainfall in this region. Confidence: Moderate
5. An increased chance for tropical cyclogenesis across the eastern Pacific. Subseasonal variability and weak vertical wind shear should allow for an increased threat of tropical development. Confidence: Moderate

Week 2 Outlook – Valid: August 3 – 9, 2010
1. An increased chance for below-average rainfall for areas of the Indian Ocean. The progression of the MJO and numerical forecast guidance support drier-than-normal conditions in this area. Confidence: Moderate
2. An increased chance for above-average rainfall for from India to Souteast Asia to the western North Pacific. The enhanced phase of the MJO, developing La Nina conditions, and above-normal sea surface temperatures (SSTs) favor elevated rainfall. Confidence: High
3. An increased chance for tropical cyclogenesis for waters near the Philippines. Subseasonal coherent tropical variability, above-normal SSTs, and areas of weak vertical wind shear increase the threat for tropical development. Confidence: Moderate
4. An increased chance for tropical cyclogenesis across the eastern Pacific. Subseasonal variability and weak vertical wind shear should allow for an increased threat of tropical development. Confidence: Moderate
5. An increased chance for below-average rainfall for parts of the eastern Pacific and Mexico. The progression of the enhanced phase of the MJO and numerical weather forecast guidance support suppressed rainfall in this region. Confidence: Moderate
Landcane over Texas!!! OH nooooo Kerry was right! LOL!
3667. xcool
Quoting Chicklit:


Now the yellows and the reds on this reflectivity show that there is more happening (lower pressure?) at the 850 mb or very close to the surface of the earth?
3669. xcool



Wow.. the EPAC has not seen one named storm this month and last month had a Category 5.
3671. scCane
Well looks like the storm are done for my area moving east of me. I wonder if I'll get slammed again tomorrow.
3672. xcool



anticyclone
Quoting xcool:




Now the yellows and the reds on this reflectivity show that there is more happening (lower pressure?) at the 850 mb or very close to the surface of the earth?
Quoting whs2012:
Guys I know this isn't weather related, but it is pretty important, and since nothing is going on this blog anyways, can I ask. What do you guys think about the 92,000 classified documents leaked from the military? The news said that some of the documents, can increase our risk of terrorist attacks significantly!
I read about this today. Pure irresponsibility or someone helping the terrorists to make it easier for them.
3675. xcool
earthlydragonfly YES 850 mb 5,000 feet
I am going to try and do this for all systems this year... that I am awake for :)


Vortex plots for Alex


Vortex Plots for Bonnie
What does the old farmers almanac say about tropical systems in the coming weeks?
3678. xcool
1936 JUST LIKE 2010
IMOIMOIMO

3679. FLdewey
Quoting ElConando:
What does the old farmers almanac say about tropical systems in the coming weeks?


It says it's time to plant corn. ;-)
3680. xcool
July 2010
24th-27th. Showery.
28th-31st. Hot, widely scattered showers, thunderstorms.


August 2010
1st-3rd. Mostly fair.
4th-7th. Showers/thunderstorms, turning mostly fair.
8th-11th. Scattered thunderstorms, then fair.
12th-15th. Pleasant.
16th-19th. Thunderstorms Tennessee east to Carolinas, then clearing.
20th-23rd. Scattered thunderstorms.
24th-27th. Hurricane threat.
28th-31st. Scattered thunderstorms.


September 2010
1st-3rd. Thunderstorms clear Atlantic Coast, turning pleasant.
4th-7th. Potentially stormy Labor Day weekend, with a hurricane threat.
8th-11th. Pleasant.
12th-15th. Thunderstorms Tennessee east.
16th-19th. Rain showers.
20th-23rd. Mostly fair.

3681. xcool
July 2010
24th-27th. Scattered showers, then clearing. Showery Texas east.
28th-31st. Hot. Widely scattered showers, thunderstorms.


August 2010
1st-3rd. Gusty winds, showery New Mexico, Texas, parts of Oklahoma.
4th-7th. Mostly fair, hot.
8th-11th. Rain Texas. Gusty winds Southern Plains.
12th-15th. Fair, turning unsettled.
16th-19th. Pleasant.
20th-23rd. Fair, then showers Southern Rockies east.
24th-27th. Fair weather gives way to unsettled conditions over Southern Rockies. Hurricane threat along Gulf Coast.
28th-31st. Thunderstorms move through Texas east.


September 2010
1st-3rd. Fair.
4th-7th. Mixed bag for holiday: Windy through New Mexico. Scattered showers from Texas east, then fair.
8th-11th. Severe thunderstorms extend from Southern Rockies through Southern Plains, tornadoes possible.
12th-15th. Clearing, pleasant.
16th-19th. Turning unsettled, showers over Southern Rockies, Southern Plains, then fair.
20th-23rd. Fair weather, then scattered showers, thunderstorms Southern Rockies.


3682. Dakster
Quoting FLdewey:


It says it's time to plant corn. ;-)


LOL...

Although not much help.
Quoting FLdewey:


It says it's time to plant corn. ;-)

Obviously you're no farmer.
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Good evening!

Good Evening.
Um .... where, exactly .. does it say to plant corn at the start of August 0.o
By Golly, it feels flat out suspicious out there! Ok, I'm gonna go read what ya'll have been saying now. lol
Anyone have the coords on the AOI? :)
3688. FLdewey
LOL... actually the wife has corn in her garden... been in a while.

But it's true that I are no farm guy.
Quoting AustinTXWeather:
Anyone have the coords on the AOI? :)


There's an AOI?
3690. Patrap

When is the GOES-13 Sat Eclipse Over Buck..?




Top her off with the LOX and lets roll
I thought so but reading quickly so maybe AOI is too strong of term --> referring to post 3647 :)
3692. xcool
YES
NHC should name the rain over texas tropical storm colon, SINCE They have invest on land now

ahem ahem 99L
3694. xcool
NEXT 90L
3695. Dakster
Quoting FLdewey:
LOL... actually the wife has corn in her garden... been in a while.

But it's true that I are no farm guy.


I really don't need to know what you and the wife are doing in the garden...

Now what the weather is up to is another story...
Quoting AustinTXWeather:
I thought so but reading quickly so maybe AOI is too strong of term --> referring to post 3647 :)


My thoughts exactly. Hence my sarcasm.
Quoting xcool:
earthlydragonfly YES 850 mb 5,000 feet


Wow that is still pretty high.. I thought 850 was even closer to the surface.. So the surface would be at 1000mb?
3699. xcool


1009MB NOW

Oh - ha - missed the sarcasm aspect. ;)

I see Miami has an update - guessing that will answer my question. Thx -
Quoting StormW:


Oh...really?


Hi Storm,

what are your thoughts on this area by the Yucatan? Should this be watched?
1013.25 mb is standard
if 850 was very near the surface .. well a 900mb hurricane would be an incredibly strong high pressure system ...
Quoting KoritheMan:


Somehow I doubt Bonnie produced anywhere near 7 inches of rain. 3 if we're lucky. More likely 1 to 2, and only in isolated areas.



Kori, i was too tired last night to post anymore, but below is an excerpt from the local news station. One entire neighborhood flooded. it was really weird because only a 1/4 mile area got the 7 inches. my neighborhood is two or 3 redlights from the area that flooded and we are fine. could be drainage issues too. but it really was 7 inches. the sugarcane looks like it took a good beating too, but only some of the crops.


PORT ALLEN, LA (WAFB) - The storm once named Bonnie quickly weakened as it made its way through south Louisiana, but it did leave a mark in West Baton Rouge Parish by flooding homes and roadways.

The Lynndale Subdivision off LA 1 in Port Allen received up to 7 inches of rain, leaving homeowners to clean up Bonnie's mess.
Quoting SouthALWX:
1013.25 mb is standard
if 850 was very near the surface .. well a 900mb hurricane would be an incredibly strong high pressure system ...


Wouldnt that be a incredibly strong low pressure system?
3708. bakers
wow... not even one cyclone occuring anywhere in the entire world. agw alarmists might be a little down at the moment.
Evening Senior Chief Caster!!
3710. xcool


WOW
3711. beell
Quoting KoritheMan:


My thoughts exactly. Hence my sarcasm.


Aw, c'mon, KoritheMan, give it a little cred!
: - )
Yucatan and wave near 35 W need to be watched.
Quoting StormW:


If we get an "established" upper level anticyclone over it and it maintains, and this gets out over the water, yes.


StormW, really enjoyed the synopsis today. Very insightful -got a ton of insight out of it for this season.
Quoting earthlydragonfly:


Wouldnt that be a incredibly strong low pressure system?
Nope. If 850mb were at the surface 900mb would be a very strong high pressure area. Just like the surface being at 1013mb and having a high pressure area of 1063mb.
good evening!!!
my town, brusly, LA got 4 inches.
3718. xcool
Humidity: 78%
Wind Speed: ESE 21 MPH
Barometer: 1010 mb
finally new blog!!!
Quoting xcool:
Humidity: 78%
Wind Speed: ESE 21 MPH
Barometer: 1010 mb


GASP... your a AOI :)
NEW BLOG
3723. xcool
Orcasystems
lmao
NEW BLOG...about a book. LOL.
3725. xcool
new blog
Quoting StormW:


If we get an "established" upper level anticyclone over it and it maintains, and this gets out over the water, yes.


ok, have any models suggested something develop around there?
Quoting unf97:


Yeah, looking at satellite imagery, very impressive convective tops across South Carolina. Yeah, lots of severe weather today across that state.


It was pretty bad in the low country too... at one point, all the storm cells merged into one and it looked like an upside down letter "T" along 526 and up 26 toward Summerville. Visibility dropped to around 100 feet standing still due to the rain. Constant lightning and about a 30 minute period where the thunder never stopped, it just subsided to a low rumble and then would crack again.


Good Evening Everybody!
3729. beell
.
Mudslide in Shuanghe,Sichuan,China
.