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Bob Henson Joins Weather Underground as a Full-Time Blogger

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:23 PM GMT on January 05, 2015

A major shake-up is at hand in the Weather Underground blog world: Bob Henson, who is probably the world's premier science writer in meteorology and climate change, has joined us as a full-time blogger, and will be making regular posts in my blog on weather and climate change topics. Bob has been a writer/editor/media relations specialist since 1990 for the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) in Boulder, Colorado, where he updated their their excellent AtmosNews website. Bob literally "wrote the book on climate change"--he is author of ”The Thinking Person’s Guide to Climate Change” ($20.90 from Amazon.com.) The book is an updated version of his "Rough Guide to Climate Change", which I reviewed back in 2008. I've thought so highly of this book that I've purchased over 200 copies over the years, giving them to students, TV meteorologists, politicians running for U.S. Congress, and the leadership of The Weather Channel. If I were teaching a course on climate change at the high school or introductory college level, this would be the text.

Bob earned his Bachelor's degree in meteorology from Rice University in 1983, and went on to get a Master's degree in Journalism from the University of Oklahoma in 1988, where he engaged in a fair bit of storm chasing on the side. He has written five books on weather and climate change, including the number one textbook for 101-level college meteorology courses, Meteorology Today (11th edition), whose 11th edition (to be published in 2015) he co-authored with C. Donald Ahrens. Bob is a contributing editor of Weatherwise magazine and has also written more than 50 articles for Nature, Scientific American, Discover, Sierra, The Guardian, AIR & SPACE/Smithsonian, and other media outlets.


With Bob's arrival at Weather Underground, I plan on reducing the number of posts I do during the winter and spring, but will be blogging full-force once hurricane season begins in June. Bob has written his own introduction to the wunderground community, presented below. Bob is at the annual meeting of the American Meteorological Society in Phoenix this week, and plans on making several posts later this week on some of the more interesting research presented at the meeting.


Video 1. If we cared about the environment like we cared about sports, news of wunderground.com signing a major free agent like Bob Henson would be treated like LeBron James' signing with the Cleveland Cavaliers. Language warning: two F-bombs in video.

- Jeff Masters

Confessions of a Natural-Born Weather Geek
It was a dark and stormy night (really, it was) when meteorology grabbed hold of me. I was a seven-year-old at the time, watching a sitcom on a bedroom TV set in Oklahoma City. Suddenly, the laugh track was interrupted with the beep-beep-beep of a weather advisory. I saw a calm young weather anchor named Lola Hall standing in front of a hand-drawn weather map, announcing that we were in a tornado warning. I ran past my parents, darted out the front door, looked up at the sky—packed with swirling, low-hanging, city-lit clouds—and realized that I had to know more.

Within three years, I had a backyard weather station and was making forecasts by clipping daily maps from the newspaper and tracking the progress of highs, lows, and fronts. Each morning, I posted an outlook on the wall of my elementary school under the heading “The Far-Out Forecaster” (not realizing at the time that it was a pun!).

As you can tell, weather has been a keen interest of mine since childhood. I know that’s the case for many of you of as well. Whatever the extent of your own passion for the sky, I’m tremendously excited to be part of the Weather Underground team, so that together we can explore and discuss the spectacular atmosphere that we all share.

My number-one job here at Weather Underground is to continue the high-quality coverage of major weather events that you’ve come to expect from Jeff and our entire team. For the next several months, this includes the full array of wintertime weather, as well as the evolution of El Niño and its implications for national and global conditions. Later this year, as hurricane season arrives, Jeff will be ramping up his own posts once more, and I’ll be pitching in regularly.

Severe weather is what got me into meteorology, so you can expect a generous amount of storm coverage this spring as the convective season rolls around. Severe storm research and technology have made tremendous strides over the last several decades, and the innovations continue today. I’ve witnessed much of that evolution first hand, including meeting Ted Fujita, documenting the VORTEX1 and VORTEX2 research projects, and spending a summer chasing storms for NOAA to validate data from the first NEXRAD radar, which was deployed in northeast Colorado. (We found plenty of big hailstones, and more than a few “landspouts”—relatively weak tornadoes that form much like waterspouts.) Despite all the research progress, the toll from events like the Super Outbreak of April 2011 remains far too high, and the full process behind tornado formation remains elusive. What are some of the most promising developments for knowing where and when tornadoes will strike, and for keeping people safer? I’ll be covering these and many more topics.

For a number of years, I had the privilege of serving as a writer and editor at the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, which operates the National Center for Atmospheric Research. This job gave me a front-row seat at a jaw-dropping array of research pertaining to the atmosphere—“from the Sun’s core to the ocean floor,” as we liked to put it. I encourage you to follow UCAR/NCAR’s diverse array of work through AtmosNews products on the web, Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube.

Here at Weather Underground, I’ll work to put ongoing weather events into the broader context of what we’re learning about our ever-evolving planet. This includes global warming, a topic that vaulted into public awareness and importance during my UCAR and NCAR days. I’ve devoted much of the the last decade to covering climate change and its effects, both in my UCAR/NCAR writing and in my after-hours book writing. Having given many public talks on the topic, I know how polarizing and distressing it can be. I am dedicated to presenting climate research in an accessible way, one that doesn’t preach to any choir and doesn’t sugarcoat the reality of the complex changes that researchers around the world are working to understand.

Sometimes it’s easy to turn our attention away from the risks of a warming atmosphere. It’s also easy to overlook the beauty of everyday weather events. Consider how many people on an aircraft keep their window shades shut during the entire flight, from takeoff to landing. I'd much rather keep my eyes and my mind open, taking in the full mystery of the atmosphere around us. It's a thrill to be part of Weather Underground, and I'm honored to be working alongside Jeff, the rest of the WU blogging team, and the community that all of you have built. Thanks for letting me join in!


Figure 1. Under a wall cloud in Oklahoma during the 2010 VORTEX2 tornado research campaign.

Bob Henson

Wunderground News

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thank you, Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson! :)
Most heartfelt welcome Mr. Henson
Looking forward to your blogs.
12z RGEM


thanx doc....and welcome bob.....saw the henson name and thought....kermit was gonna take over :-)

Winter Storm Gorgon formed over the Northwest Sunday, and in a mere 48 hours it is expected to bring a swath of snow more than 2,000 miles long from the Cascades and Northern Rockies across the Midwest and into the Northeast through Tuesday. This fast-moving system has already prompted winter storm watches, warnings, and advisories for parts of 15 states from Washington all the way to Ohio.

Let's get into what's happening now and what we expect next. Later, for you hardcore weather geeks, we'll get into the science behind why this is happening.

Snow Reports and Forecast Timeline
Snow has already begun over the Northwest and northern Rockies, but in the Cascade passes of western Washington, warmer air has changed snow over to rain. That has prompted avalanche warnings for the crest and western slopes of the Washington Cascades.

Snow-covered conditions have improved since Sunday evening on Interstate 90 over Snoqualmie Pass (see webcam).

Top snowfall totals as of 4 a.m. PST Monday included 17 inches at Jackson Hole Mountain in western Wyoming; 7 inches near Ski Bluewood in southeast Washington; and 15.7 inches near Pine Creek Pass in southeast Idaho.

The wind has been strong as well with a gust of 72 mph, with sustained winds of 41 mph, reported near Elk Mountain, Wyoming on Monday morning.
a new winter storm!!

Monday: Snow lingers over the northern Rockies while streaking southeastward across parts of the northern and central Plains. Breezy conditions will combine with snow to reduce visibility. Wind chills below zero could create a life-threatening situation for anyone stranded on the road in open country

Monday night: Snow continues to zip east across the southern Great Lakes region and portions of the Ohio Valley, reaching the Appalachians of West Virginia and Pennsylvania late at night. Conditions will deteriorate quickly as the snow moves in with this fast-moving storm.

Tuesday: Gorgon will lose some of its punch as it moves into the Northeast, but some light snow is expected for the morning commute in Philadelphia, Baltimore and Washington, D.C. New York may see a dusting Tuesday morning.
from the last blog

while not a fan of the cfsv2......i'll note that michael ventrice has called it's current readings innacurate and also as recently as last week our own dr greg said it is highly inaccurate on this blog...but is it showing a long range modoki?


first...here is what a modoki el nino looks like...

notice the cooling in the easternmost and westernmost ENSO regions


now....let's see if we see long range cooling in the cfsv2 models for the eastern and western portions of the ENSO regions






so no....you cannot determine a modoki event from the cfsv2
Welcome aboard Bob.
Welcome to Bob Henson.

His story about growing up in OKC reminded me of all the time I spent in OKC. Since I worked for the FAA I spent a lot of time attending the FAA academy. Maybe over the course of 30+ years, I probably spent a total of three years there. Sometimes during the spring months (April, May, June) I dreaded seeing the TV weather man on screen... especially Gary England. He was great but seemed to always have some bad news.

Welcome Bob to Wx Underground.
A big welcome to Bob Henson to the WU community and looking forward to your blogs.
The Science Behind Winter Storm Gorgon

Winter Storm Gorgon will be driven mostly by an energetic disturbance in the jet stream -- that fast-moving ribbon of air about 30,000 feet above the ground that usually blows in a general west-to-east direction across North America.

Disturbances in the jet stream can sometimes spin up massive low-pressure systems, but this one is not expected to do that. Instead, a weak low developed over western Montana late Sunday night and will zip southeast across the Central Plains Monday before moving east into the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic Monday night into Tuesday. These systems are often referred to as "clippers" – though this one isn't strictly an "Alberta clipper" since it will be forming in Montana.

Along its journey, the center of low pressure may be difficult to pick out because it will remain very very weak. However, the disturbance in the jet stream will remain quite strong – and it will create strong rising motions in the mid-layers of the atmosphere, some 5,000 to 20,000 feet above the ground. It just so happens that this layer of air will be saturated with water vapor – that is to say, its humidity will be close to 100 percent – in the same area where the air rises quickly.

When air is saturated and it rises, clouds and precipitation form. In this case it will be plenty cold enough for the precipitation to form as snowflakes inside the clouds – and plenty cold enough for those snowflakes to reach the ground as snowflakes and to accumulate, as temperatures along the storm's path will be firmly below freezing.

In fact, east of the Rockies and Black Hills, this storm will probably produce nothing but snow, as it won't be warm enough for rain even along the southern edge of its path.

Winter Storm Gorgon has met The Weather Channel criteria for both population and land area affected. As of early Monday morning, winter storm warnings included over 4 million people from Washington to Illinois. Those warnings covered over 750,000 square kilometers.

For 2014-15, The Weather Channel names any winter storm that meets or is likely to meet National Weather Service warning criteria (winter storm warnings, blizzard warnings, ice storm warnings) over an area of at least 400,000 square kilometers OR a population of at least 2 million people. Gorgon happens to meet both criteria.

Welcome aboard Bob



less snow for the northeast now!
Thanks, Dr. Masters. Welcome to WU, Mr. Henson!
I look forward to reading your book and upcoming blog posts.


cold weather in the mid-west this morning -23F
Quoting 3. Drakoen:

12z RGEM



I can really relate to the story about getting hooked on severe weather while living in Oklahoma. I graduated from Moore High School, and I spent a lot of time hanging out in Norman with my friends at O.U.
A good friend (Andy Kimpel) on mine's father (Jeff Kimpel) was the Director of the School of Meteorology and later the Dean.


This is the post from Dr. Steve.

This is from Steve Gregory regarding that large warm pool who is filling for Dr Jeff Masters who is in vacation.

In case it isn't immediately obvious - this is why the CFS is forecasting a MAJOR El Nino to develop next summer and fall. This model is a relatively poor performer. However, it has done better over the past month, and it has forecast a big El Nino next summer for the past 4 months. And now, ALL the Members of this ensemble model are calling for it. That is the first time in more years than I can remember that it has done this with such 'intensity'.

That response came after I posted this on Friday or Saturday. Notice the massive warm pool in the Indian Ocean/W-Pac. This next warm pool means business and is the reason the CFSv2 & the Euro the world's most reliable model have latched onto it.



Welcome Bob Henson!
the japanese actually run a model just for a modoki event...it's not bullish on an event either

when you look at the euro means....it's not bullish on a strong wave coming...still showing a weak el nino

welcome to WU Bob!
Welcome Mr. Henson! Looking forward to your posts.

BTW, love the BuzzFeed video.
Quoting 21. ricderr:

when you look at the euro means....it's not bullish on a strong wave coming...still showing a weak el nino




Ric you know better than that to post wrong info! LOL

Here is the correct run and this model updates next week and this update will be interesting as we could be seeing another trend upwards toward the CFSv2 and if this is the case it would be now 3 months in a row its trended upward.



Thanks Dr. Masters, and welcome Bob Henson. Looking forward to the summer and winter blogs, and the posts from the WU community who are curious to know more (and obviously know quite a bit already)!
Welcome to the zoo, Mr.Henson. :-)

I wonde how many of us got into weather the same way you describe? It was a tornado for me also, but I was a kid in Cleveland. It was just a few years before you were seven but the experience was the same. I even built my own weather station and the neighbors thought I was slightly nuts.

If you can feed us a reasonable mix of current weather happenings and climate change, you'll do fine.
Welcome!!
Welcome aboard Bob.

We call it, the "Bob wunderground Burger".



Where's the like button? Welcome aboard, Bob!
Quoting 26. sar2401:

Welcome to the zoo, Mr.Henson. :-)

I wonde how many of us got into weather the same way you describe? It was a tornado for me also, but I was a kid in Cleveland. It was just a few years before you were seven but the experience was the same. I even built my own weather station and the neighbors thought I was slightly nuts.

If you can feed us a reasonable mix of current weather happenings and climate change, you'll do fine.

Severe weather was also what got me into meteorology--I remember one afternoon when my mom went to drop my brother off at my dad's house and on the way back they said they saw a tornado. Shortly thereafter, it started pouring hail and I busted out crying. After that, I started watching The Weather Channel all the time and got more and more interested in hurricanes.
Here is the correct run and this model updates next week and this update will be interesting as we could be seeing another trend upwards toward the CFSv2 and if this is the case it would be now 3 months in a row its trended upward

scott...you're welcome to use either one....the means is the same.....showing a weak event....i guess if you only used the upwards outliers...you're statement would be correct
Enso neutral conditions continue as of today from the climate prediction center. This means that the 2015 Atlantic hurricane season will be more active and enhanced by the neutral conditions. The neutral conditions are forecast to persist through the hurricane season, making hurricane forecasting harder! What do you think?
Happy New Year to everyone. Sorry to see Dr. Masters reduce his excellent posts for the Winter and Spring but happy to see a notable replacement for these periods in Mr. Henson. Will hold Dr. M to his word on his continued blogging and posts during hurricane season; he is one of the best in the business in this particular area and many people, including emergency management personnel, watch and follow his hurricane impact forecasts in helping them prepare for their areas when a threatening storm approaches because of the excellent no-hype analysis that Dr. Master's consistently puts together during hurricane season.
Welcome Mr.Henson..The more Weather Geeks the better , although its apparent you have superceded geek status into a well known Atmospheric Guru. By the way , I have a similar wind gauge , but the older ROAR , or rock on a rope...:)
35. vis0
HOW DARE a new blogbyte appear as i typed one of my most important comments
#771 previous "BLOG".  ...and who is this Bob from NASCAR? (==place image of Gilda Radner as Emily Litella here==) "Never mind". Welcome to WxU Mr. Bob Henson, another reason WxU is TOPs in the blogging communities that inform the public ans allowing the public to speak its mind* of how & why it is important to take care of ones HOME, Earth.

*(if you disagree and post so, the aforementioned statement is correct)
Quoting 30. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Severe weather was also what got me into meteorology--I remember one afternoon when my mom went to drop my brother off at my dad's house and on the way back they said they saw a tornado. Shortly thereafter, it started pouring hail and I busted out crying. After that, I started watching The Weather Channel all the time and got more and more interested in hurricanes.


I got into severe weather via the intense 3 AM squall lines that came through growing up. What started as an intense fear of a direct lightning strike or a falling tree turned into a passion for thunderstorms and everything they produce, especially tornadoes.
Quoting 26. sar2401:

Welcome to the zoo, Mr.Henson. :-)

I wonde how many of us got into weather the same way you describe? It was a tornado for me also, but I was a kid in Cleveland. It was just a few years before you were seven but the experience was the same. I even built my own weather station and the neighbors thought I was slightly nuts.

If you can feed us a reasonable mix of current weather happenings and climate change, you'll do fine.


Flash flooding September 1966 when I was 8 did it for me. The second weather obsession hook was horticulture which suddenly interested me when I was 14 after my dad, also a hobby horticulturalist tried to interest me in it without results from age 10 on. But once I started gardening weather, esp. temperatures took on a new relevance. I think my late dad would be proud to see what I have accomplished in his hobby domain.. he also grew citrus and vegetables in DC but mine are better. I still cannot touch what he could do with roses and non-citrus fruit trees.
Lows this morning in Central Illinois ranged between -3º to 1 above .. feel like temperatures are between -5 to-15º below ..

Winter Storm Warning for to night with 3 to 5 inches of snow .. with blizzard conditions with the blowing snow expected ...
Enso neutral conditions continue as of today from the climate prediction center. This means that the 2015 Atlantic hurricane season will be more active and enhanced by the neutral conditions. The neutral conditions are forecast to persist through the hurricane season, making hurricane forecasting harder! What do you think?


very hard....first.....when looking at last year.....we saw an el nino type influence at times...so....will this year also be influenced by el nino conditions......at other times without an el nino influence...we still saw conditions not conducive to tropical development....could we see those again this year......

personally....it's a guessing game this far out....even for the experts and their millions of dollars backing their guesses....
Lows this morning in Central Illinois ranged between -3º to 1 above .. feel like temperatures are between -5 to-15º below ..


that makes my 24 feel like a sauna :-)
Quoting 40. ricderr:

Lows this morning in Central Illinois ranged between -3º to 1 above .. feel like temperatures are between -5 to-15º below ..


that makes my 24 feel like a sauna :-)


Now would be the time for all those people who took the ice bucket challenge in August/September, to

REPEAT IT!!

Thank you Dr. Masters. Welcome Bob, it will be nice to read your comments. :)
Quoting 40. ricderr:

Lows this morning in Central Illinois ranged between -3º to 1 above .. feel like temperatures are between -5 to-15º below ..


that makes my 24 feel like a sauna :-)


Gets worse .. we are expecting 3 to 5 inches of blowing snow with blizzard conditions .. a high temperature of 11º is forecast ..
Quoting 30. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Severe weather was also what got me into meteorology--I remember one afternoon when my mom went to drop my brother off at my dad's house and on the way back they said they saw a tornado. Shortly thereafter, it started pouring hail and I busted out crying. After that, I started watching The Weather Channel all the time and got more and more interested in hurricanes.


I'm after paper maps, but before the weather channel, maybe grease pens on the glass?. I sat next to dad with his multi-band radio waiting for the NWS to broadcast on 162.450. It was not continuous in those days, it was what, every 5, 10, or 15 minutes? It was a big deal during hurricanes and there were so many hurricane/tornado/flood alerts that the broadcasts ran over each other.

It was the regular severe weather in the South Louisiana that made me want to know more.

The kind of stuff you guys reference was not available when I was younger, so I am way behind.
Depends on where you live-what you study and how weather impacts your region for the bug to get you. Living in South Florida for most of my life until 14 years ago, we had few severe weather events in the Winter and Spring from frontal activities as compared to the rest of the Country/State. Scheduling fishing trips in between the afternoon t-storms was no big deal either in the Summer and Fall. And going the beach in December was the norm the last few years I lived there too.

However, Hurricane Andrew was the "moment" for me that triggered the amateur interest in the weather which has now expanded to Winter and Spring events as the result of participating in the Blog all these years.
Gets worse .. we are expecting 3 to 5 inches of blowing snow with blizzard conditions .. a high temperature of 11º is forecast ..

yep.....does not sound like a happy commute home tonight
Now would be the time for all those people who took the ice bucket challenge in August/September, to

REPEAT IT!!



i'll skip the challenge and just pay up....LOL
Quoting georgevandenberghe:


Flash flooding September 1966 when I was 8 did it for me. The second weather obsession hook was horticulture which suddenly interested me when I was 14 after my dad, also a hobby horticulturalist tried to interest me in it without results from age 10 on. But once I started gardening weather, esp. temperatures took on a new relevance. I think my late dad would be proud to see what I have accomplished in his hobby domain.. he also grew citrus and vegetables in DC but mine are better. I still cannot touch what he could do with roses and non-citrus fruit trees.
That's a good point about horticulturalists and weather. I had an old German widower down the street who's entire backyard was a garden. When he saw me building my pathetic instrument shelter, he invited me over and showed me how he built his, which was a lot less likely to fall apart in the first storm. We built a pretty nifty shelter out of wood Coke crates. Those were the days before Coke crates were considered a "collectible". The neighbors considered him a little nuts too, so we got along fine, and this was way before the time parents worried about "funny" neighbors. He taught me a lot about how to look at clouds and the wind, the way the sun looked when it was shining through different types of cloud layers, and even how the air smelled before rain or colder weather. He had a simple weather log he had been keeping from almost 50 years. His name was Ludwig and I like to think he provides all the tomatoes in Heaven today.
I'm looking forward to reading that which both Dr.s have to say.
In the meantime does anyone here have a theory which would explain the latest image from:
http://earth.nullschool.net/
Gulf of Alaska
Welcome, Bob Henson!


Winter Storm Warnings in Pink; Winter Weather Advisories in Blue/Purple

Here in Chicago we are getting ready for 3-6 inches of the white stuff!
Quoting DFWdad:


I'm after paper maps, but before the weather channel, maybe grease pens on the glass?. I sat next to dad with his multi-band radio waiting for the NWS to broadcast on 162.450. It was not continuous in those days, it was what, every 5, 10, or 15 minutes? It was a big deal during hurricanes and there were so many hurricane/tornado/flood alerts that the broadcasts ran over each other.

It was the regular severe weather in the South Louisiana that made me want to know more.

The kind of stuff you guys reference was not available when I was younger, so I am way behind.
Very true about the way weather radio initially ran. In coastal states like Louisiana, the VHF system mirrored the HF (marine band to most people) and LW (long wave, used for pilot weather reports) systems that already existed, and most of them broadcast five minutes of weather on the hour and half-hour. The VHF system we have today was originally meant for people who lived away from the coast and didn't have HF or LW receivers. All the broadcasts were live then, so there was no way anyone was going to sit there repeating the weather endlessly on the radio. It was the introduction of reliable commercial tape recorders that allowed a forecaster to record over last hour's forecast that VHF weather forecasts and observations were broadcast continuously. It was still done live, and you could tell what area a broadcast was coming from by the forecasters voice, some of which were pretty distinctive. Now we have these computer voices that still can't pronounce names of local areas correctly, and the inflection and intonation never changes, even with a tornado bearing down on the weather office. :-)
Not quite so cold in S C IL this a.m. as N C IL, saw lows of 6 & 7 at nearest sites. We are also supposed to miss most of the snow N C IL is forecast to get. But, Wed morning, have a forecast of 2 for low, high of 4, then -4 Thurs morning, hoping the peach buds survive, had none last summer, but we were 5 to 10 degrees colder. Saw 30.7" again this morning, second time in a week. Currently 12 w/ a 3 dew pt, light W-NW winds, 30.68" to my N, 15 w/ 6 dp & 30.62" to my SW (both about 17-18 miles from us). Welcome to the blog Mr. Henson, look forward to your posts!
Quoting whitewabit:


Gets worse .. we are expecting 3 to 5 inches of blowing snow with blizzard conditions .. a high temperature of 11º is forecast ..


This is Cleveland's forecast for Wednesday. This kind of weather is so common there in the winter it doesn't even rate a special weather statement.

Wednesday
Snow showers. Areas of blowing snow. Snow may be heavy at times. Blustery with highs around 13. Northwest winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 40 mph. Chance of snow 80 percent. Wind chill values as low as 12 below.
Quoting 49. ycd0108:

I'm looking forward to reading that which both Dr.s have to say.
In the meantime does anyone here have a theory which would explain the latest image from:
http://earth.nullschool.net/
Gulf of Alaska



Loop



(Edit: added surface analysis)
Is it true that forecasters are forecasting a hurricane Danny striking Florida in late August? Also what are you guys 2015 Atlantic hurricane season predictions,and do you think neutral conditions will return?

Is it true that forecasters are forecasting a hurricane Danny striking Florida in late August? Also what are you guys 2015 Atlantic hurricane season predictions,and do you think neutral conditions will return?



LOL...yes...the long range euro....cmc....and gfs have all latched onto what will be named danny striking florida....


Wednesday s high expected to be -2 with a low Wednesday night of -11
Quoting 53. dabirds:

Not quite so cold in S C IL this a.m. as N C IL, saw lows of 6 & 7 at nearest sites. We are also supposed to miss most of the snow N C IL is forecast to get. But, Wed morning, have a forecast of 2 for low, high of 4, then -4 Thurs morning, hoping the peach buds survive, had none last summer, but we were 5 to 10 degrees colder. Saw 30.7" again this morning, second time in a week. Currently 12 w/ a 3 dew pt, light W-NW winds, 30.68" to my N, 15 w/ 6 dp & 30.62" to my SW (both about 17-18 miles from us). Welcome to the blog Mr. Henson, look forward to your posts!
Welcome to the community, Mr. (Dr?) Henson!

I remember being in 4th grade and drawing my own weather maps in my bedroom as a kid, complete with cold and warm fronts, temperature readings, and precipitation probabilities. My parents thought I was strange, and my friends never knew about it. I discovered WU somewhere around 2007 or 2008, right around when I graduated college, but my fascination with weather slowly waned until the end of October in 2012 and Hurricane Sandy.

I became a daily lurker of WU, eventually establishing an account in mid-2014. This is a great blog, especially for novices like myself who continue to learn about and be fascinated by all-things-weather.
Quoting 59. LongIslandBeaches:

Welcome to the community, Mr. (Dr?) Henson!

I remember being in 4th grade and drawing my own weather maps in my bedroom as a kid, complete with cold and warm fronts, temperature readings, and precipitation probabilities. My parents thought I was strange, and my friends never knew about it. I discovered WU somewhere around 2007 or 2008, right around when I graduated college, but my fascination with weather slowly waned until the end of October in 2012 and Hurricane Sandy.

I became a daily lurker of WU, eventually establishing an account in mid-2014. This is a great blog, especially for novices like myself who continue to learn about and be fascinated by all-things-weather.



There are a lot worse hobbies you could have picked up...this one is harmless, and helpful, not to mention inexpensive :D
watch out if you live in Chicago we are getting ready for 3-6 inches of the snow!!
the El Nino will be here by march!
Quoting ricderr:

Is it true that forecasters are forecasting a hurricane Danny striking Florida in late August? Also what are you guys 2015 Atlantic hurricane season predictions,and do you think neutral conditions will return?



LOL...yes...the long range euro....cmc....and gfs have all latched onto what will be named danny striking florida....


I'm confused. I thought the Atlantic season was already shut down because of El Nino. Have we changed our mind?
Here comes the sun :-) Photo I took this morning on the banks of Rhine, and it may now serve to welcome Mr. Bob Henson. Doc's recommendations and his own intro make me looking forward to his posts ...



And I fully concur with his attitude, quoting: "Consider how many people on an aircraft keep their window shades shut during the entire flight, from takeoff to landing. I'd much rather keep my eyes and my mind open, taking in the full mystery of the atmosphere around us." I always get mad when folks on a plane will shut down the view for me ...

BTW here is the reason for our sunshine today: high Antonia:


Saved loop. Source.



Some "Bob" is around as well but far out in the arctic northern Atlantic, lol. (BTW you can spot by this map the change of "sexes" of storms in Germany's naming system every year: In 2015 highs (blue) are females and lows (red) male while it was the other way round in the past year; some older systems from 2014 are still around right now, like "Vincent", "Klaudia" and "Lina").
Welcome to the Blog!

Doesn't MetEd come from NCAR too? they are great online classes.
I hope you cover some of what the United Nations is doing in response to climate change.
Sea Level rise has been my focus so far, since Climate Variability was too sensitive a topic. There is finally enough pressure politically that we can work on preparing for and adapting to the changes we are experiencing.
Samantha Mohr is back on The Weather Channel yay!!!!
Thanks Dr Jeff, and let me be the first, second or 23rd(?) member to welcome you aboard Bob! Look forward to your perspective and insights.

Man, gotta scratch the gray matter to remember when became fascinated with weather and extremes, having been an outdoor type since a young age. But I do recall contrasting events of Audrey '57 and the Feb snowstorm '58 amazing me with weather wonders of living in coastal Louisiana, one powerfully horrifying, the other incredibly delightful.
Quoting 63. luvtogolf:



I'm confused. I thought the Atlantic season was already shut down because of El Nino. Have we changed our mind?


Yes, now it will be a modiki El Nino and the hurricane season will be similar 2004, which means FL is due for the apocalypse. Stay tuned for the next update.
Storms hitting Western Europe during winter surely have an advantageous side (and more wind is in the forecast for this weekend; not clear yet how severe it will be for Germany though):

U.K. And Germany Smash Wind Power Records
Thinkprogress, by Ari Phillips Posted on January 5, 2015 at 12:18 pm
The United Kingdom blew past previous wind power records in 2014 while Germany generated a record amount of electricity from wind in December, setting the stage for 2015 to bring more industry growth across Europe. Exactly how quickly it grows, however, is contingent upon several political and regulatory decisions to come.
Using statistics from the U.K.'s National Grid, the trade association RenewableUK found that wind generated enough electricity to power just over 25 percent of U.K. homes in 2014 - a 15 percent increase from 2013. Wind turbines provided 9.3 percent of the U.K's total electricity supply last year, a 1.5 percent boost from 2013.
"It's great to start 2015 with some good news about the massive quantities of clean electricity we're now generating from wind," said RenewableUK's Deputy Chief Executive Maf Smith.
In December, Germany generated more wind power, 8.9 terawatt-hours, than in any previous month. According to the IWR renewable energy research institute, this record will be overtaken in 2015 as more offshore wind farms come online.
After strong wind power months in October and November, Scotland also set a monthly generation record in December. WWF Scotland stated that wind power generated enough power to supply electricity to 98 percent of Scotland's households in 2014. ...

Whole article see link above.

Thanks dok! Welcome to wunderground Hensen!
Sorry I have not been on for a while. I kinda lost intrest in the blog.
Going to get below zero wind chills on Wednesday and Thursday morning and below zero temps on wednesday night. Snow on Tuesday night. 0.1 inch of accumulation expected.
Good going, this is very exciting. Thanks Doc!
Thank you Dr. Masters and welcome to wunderground Dr. Hensen.
From the NWS disco in Raleigh NC about the cold...

IF LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES AROUND 1225 METERS AT 12Z THU VERIFY PER THE CONSENSUS OF NWP GUIDANCE...IT WOULD MARK JUST THE 15TH-20TH TIME SUCH VALUES WERE OBSERVED AT KGSO DURING THE PAST 50 YEARS. ASSOCIATED LOWS WILL BE WELL INTO THE TEENS...WITH SOME SINGLE DIGITS POSSIBLE OVER RURAL NW PIEDMONT LOCATIONS.

Looking ahead to the weekend...

THE ARRIVAL OF STRENGTHENING SOUTHERN STREAM FLOW FROM THE EAST PACIFIC WILL THEN CAUSE AN UPPER LOW JUST WEST OF THE BAJA THIS MORNING TO SHEAR ENE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN US...WHICH COULD SPELL WET AND/OR WINTRY WEATHER FOR PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS AND VA...AS THE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE INTERACTS WITH THE COLD HIGH.

It's going to get interesting to see how quickly we get a return flow and how progressive this strong high will be.
Quoting LAbonbon:


There are a lot worse hobbies you could have picked up...this one is harmless, and helpful, not to mention inexpensive :D
LOL...wait until he wants a high-end weather station. Then the inexpensive part starts to go away. :-)
Quoting barbamz:
Here comes the sun :-) Photo I took this morning on the banks of Rhine, and it may now serve to welcome Mr. Bob Henson. Doc's recommendations and his own intro make me looking forward to his posts ...



And I fully concur with his attitude, quoting: "Consider how many people on an aircraft keep their window shades shut during the entire flight, from takeoff to landing. I'd much rather keep my eyes and my mind open, taking in the full mystery of the atmosphere around us." I always get mad when folks on a plane will shut down the view for me ...

BTW here is the reason for our sunshine today: high Antonia:


Saved loop. Source.



Some "Bob" is around as well but far out in the arctic northern Atlantic, lol. (BTW you can spot by this map the change of "sexes" of storms in Germany's naming system every year: In 2015 highs (blue) are females and lows (red) male while it was the other way round in the past year; some older systems from 2014 are still around right now, like "Vincent", "Klaudia" and "Lina").
It's good to see you have some sun and that the Medicanes seem to have finally stopped. I never will get that whole high and low naming convention over there. I guess your "Bob" will cause some trouble for you sometime later in the week. We have a trouble making low and high here, with high bring us cold weather and the potential low bringing us some kind of weather for the weekend which might turn out to be quite interesting. At least it's sunny here now and 57, likely the highest I'll see for the next couple of days.
76. RayT
This is a good addition to the team. makes me wonder though....

should this site maybe have two blogs?

perhaps one for tropical weather and one for Global warming and climate change?

Just curious.


Ice sculptures on display at Harbin festival in China
BBC, 5 January 2015 Last updated at 18:19 GMT
Some of the world's most breathtaking ice sculptures went on display on Monday at the 31st International Ice and Snow Festival in Harbin, China.
Thousands of people from across the region travelled to get a look at the unique creations, which include castles and famous buildings.
Quoting tiggerhurricanes2001:
Is it true that forecasters are forecasting a hurricane Danny striking Florida in late August? Also what are you guys 2015 Atlantic hurricane season predictions,and do you think neutral conditions will return?
No, I think it will be Fred. I've always wanted a storm named Fred to flatten Florida for some reason...

But seriously, no one has a clue about neutral, forward, or reverse for the 2015 season. I've noticed you've asked these kinds of questions a lot, and there are no answers. Your picture says you live in Savannah. If you can forecast what the weather will be there on Friday you will have accomplished something, and it might even be possible if you concentrate on forecasting like that.
79. bwi
Dang, winter weather advisory for tomorrow morning in DC. That means we'll have two inches of salt on the roads by midnight.
Quoting 76. RayT:

This is a good addition to the team. makes me wonder though....

should this site maybe have two blogs?

perhaps one for tropical weather and one for Global warming and climate change?

Just curious.


It already does. Dr. Ricky Rood's blog is devoted to climate change. However, Dr. Masters' blog frequently deals with the subject, too.
Quoting LAbonbon:



Loop



(Edit: added surface analysis)
Not a great setup for California. Nice Pacific low but it's going into Canada as the high building on the West Coast is going to block anything of consequence for the next week. Now that it's January, the rainy season there needs to get moving again since there's only about two months of it ahead and they need every drop they can get.
Quoting 75. sar2401:

It's good to see you have some sun and that the Medicanes seem to have finally stopped. I never will get that whole high and low naming convention over there. I guess your "Bob" will cause some trouble for you sometime later in the week. We have a trouble making low and high here, with high bring us cold weather and the potential low bringing us some kind of weather for the weekend which might turn out to be quite interesting. At least it's sunny here now and 57, likely the highest I'll see for the next couple of days.


Welcome Sar. "Bob" will bother some polar bears but not Central Europe though. It's what you guys have in store in your US-Canadian freezer these days what may cause some nuisance for us the weekend to come. Here's the latest run (winds 850 hPa) from the "Euro" for Saturday (and more may follow):

Quoting bwi:
Dang, winter weather advisory for tomorrow morning in DC. That means we'll have two inches of salt on the roads by midnight.
Not so good for your rocker panels but it will be a good thing if the snow really develops. We have no salt down here and very little sand, and the concept of pretreating roads has been unknown. I hope they've learned from last year's disaster but I don't hold out much hope.
Quoting barbamz:


Welcome Sar. "Bob" will bother some polar bears but not Central Europe though. It's what you guys have in store in your US-Canadian freezer these days what may cause some distress for us the weekend to come. Here's the latest run (winds 850 hPa) from the "Euro" for Saturday (and more may follow):

Maybe "Bob" will help those offshore wind platforms then. I guess almost everything that happens weatherwise, good an bad, eventually affects your weather there, especially since it's winter and we have such a strong zonal flow. I bought some natural gas futures this morning in the belief we are about to change over into a colder pattern here and in Europe. So far, the market doesn't agree and I'm getting slaughtered. We'll see by the end of the week if I'm smarter than the market. Unlike forecasting guesses here, these cost me money if I'm wrong. :-)
Quoting yonzabam:


It already does. Dr. Ricky Rood's blog is devoted to climate change. However, Dr. Masters' blog frequently deals with the subject, too.
It's really getting almost impossible to separate weather from climate now since we have so many record breaking events that have been occurring over the past several years. The balance I'd like to see is not having the discussions about climate change here get to the point of overwhelming discussing and forecasting the present weather. There's always going to be some mix of the two but, as you say, we already have one blog that's exclusively looking at climate change, so I expect and hope that weather, tropical or otherwise, would still remain the main topic here
the columbians are saying it's el nino...and doing something about it

El Niño weather phenomenon affecting Colombia, officials say
Published January 04, 2015EFE
The El Niño weather phenomenon is developing in Colombia, where it is causing a drought, Hydrology, Meteorology and Environmental Studies Institute, or IDEAM, weather forecasting and alerts director Cristian Euscategui said.

The weather phenomenon, which causes high temperatures and reduced rainfall, is already producing a drought across much of the country, Euscategui told Caracol Radio this weekend.

"We have had temperatures above 37 C in some coastal areas, especially in provinces like Cesar, Cordoba and even the central littoral zone, and cities like Barranquilla, Santa Marta and Cartagena also registered high temperatures," Euscategui said.

Colombian officials have been warning for months that El Niño would affect the country.

President Juan Manuel Santos said last Monday that it "appears inevitable" that the weather phenomenon would affect Colombia in the first six months of 2015.

Colombia must take measures "as of now to mitigate the effects" of El Niño, Santos said.

The implementation of water conservation rules is among the measures being taken to address the reduced rainfall expected due to El Niño, whose probability of reaching Colombia is estimated at 83 percent, Euscategui said.

"This phenomenon will make us have a rain deficit and we could end up with very little rain or no rain at all in some areas, especially the coast, the northern part of the Andean region and the central zone," the IDEAM official said.

El Niño is a disruption of the ocean-atmosphere system in the tropical Pacific having important consequences for weather around the globe.

The phenomenon, which appears every three to eight years, was dubbed El Niño (The Child) by Peruvian and Ecuadorian fishermen who observed that it occurred around Christmas time. EFE
Weather Outlook: El Nino Will Dominate 2015 Weather

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Drew Lerner
El Nino is expected to play a major role in Canadian weather in the early part of 2015, which could lead to a drier and warmer summer in the Prairies.

Highlights
Weather conditions over the next few weeks and months will be dominated by a developing El Nino event. El Nino events begin in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean when sea surface temperatures rise significantly above average. The warmer ocean water results in a massive low pressure system forming over the region. That low pressure system causes a chain reaction displacing the position of large high and low pressure systems all around the world. As a result, weather conditions change. For some areas, the change will be good, but for others, not so welcome.

Eastern Australia will experience drought going into 2015 with product
ion cuts for many summer crops and possibly for some 2015-2016 small grain crops as well. Indonesia, Malaysia and the Philippines will experience less than usual rainfall, as will South Africa. These changes can impact grain and oilseed production.

In South America, the situation is mostly good for summer crops with favourable production likely in most corn and soybean production areas. India may be faced with a poor performance in the summer monsoon if El Nino is still in control of the world’s weather in the Northern Hemisphere summer.

Weather in Canada’s Prairies this summer may trend drier and warmer biased if El Nino is prevailing. Portions of the U.S. Midwest will see timely rainfall and favourable summer crop production. Until then, winter weather in North America will be warmer than usual in western Canada and the northern U.S. Plains, while wetter and cooler than usual conditions impact the southern United States. The U.S. Midwest winter may be a little drier biased in the north and wetter biased in the south.
Welcome, Bob Henson!
I don't often have anything worth posting, but I've been reading this blog for many years. Your first effort was enjoyable and easy to read. I guess your journalism background is showing. Keep up the good work!
So tomorrow I am expecting 1-3" of some white stuff not really seen since Thanksgiving. I guess I should be excited, its more snow then I got during all of December. *sigh* Mother Nature needs to get cranking with Old Man Winter out East.

Also, Welcome to the blog Bob Henson :D
the dumb things i do........


i looked up lola hall...the weather forecaster mentioned by our guest host....she was the first female on air weather reporter for the southwest
Quoting tiggerhurricanes2001:
Is it true that forecasters are forecasting a hurricane Danny striking Florida in late August? Also what are you guys 2015 Atlantic hurricane season predictions,and do you think neutral conditions will return?


Yup. Models are in complete agreement already, nearly eight months in advance. August 27th at exactly 0349 UTC it will make landfall at Sebastian Inlet as a Category 2 hurricane.
Quoting sar2401:
It's really getting almost impossible to separate weather from climate now since we have so many record breaking events that have been occurring over the past several years. The balance I'd like to see is not having the discussions about climate change here get to the point of overwhelming discussing and forecasting the present weather. There's always going to be some mix of the two but, as you say, we already have one blog that's exclusively looking at climate change, so I expect and hope that weather, tropical or otherwise, would still remain the main topic here
Since our rapidly changing climate obviously affects every single weather event taking place, it's probably next to impossible to discuss severe weather without mentioning climate change. And given that the forum at Dr. Rood's blog generally leans to the deeply esoteric and scientific side of the discussion, I for one would like to see Mr. Henson continue to write more to the popular side of climate and weather here--especially since he clearly excels at that, as anyone who's familiar with his writings can attest.
Yup. Models are in complete agreement already, nearly eight months in advance. August 27th at exactly 0349 UTC it will make landfall at Sebastian Inlet as a Category 2 hurricane.


i most heatedly have to disagree....the euro...of which this far out i trust more than the other models......calls for a landfall at 351
Quoting 94. Neapolitan:

Since our rapidly changing climate obviously affects every single weather event taking place, it's probably next to impossible to discuss severe weather without mentioning climate change. And given that the forum at Dr. Rood's blog generally leans to the deeply esoteric and scientific side of the discussion, I for one would like to see Mr. Henson continue to write more to the popular side of climate and weather here--especially since he clearly excels at that, as anyone who's familiar with his writings can attest.


This Logic you speak, it may be disturbing to others,

Strange...yet fascinating.
SORRY...THOUGHT IT NEEDED A PIC

This Logic you speak, it may be disturbing to others,

Strange...yet fascinating.


Quoting 85. sar2401:

It's really getting almost impossible to separate weather from climate now since we have so many record breaking events that have been occurring over the past several years. The balance I'd like to see is not having the discussions about climate change here get to the point of overwhelming discussing and forecasting the present weather. There's always going to be some mix of the two but, as you say, we already have one blog that's exclusively looking at climate change, so I expect and hope that weather, tropical or otherwise, would still remain the main topic here

However, I would caution attributing individual weather events to climate change, as extreme events are usually the culmination of not one factor, but typically several, and anomalous weather events are certain to appear even in constant climates. For example, NOAA released a study a few weeks ago that said the California drought was primarily natural instead of human-influenced; that does not mean we will not see increased droughts in the future due to climate change.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

However, I would caution attributing individual weather events to climate change, as extreme events are usually the culmination of not one factor, but typically several, and anomalous weather events are certain to appear even in constant climates. For example, NOAA released a study a few weeks ago that said the California drought was primarily natural instead of human-influenced; that does not mean we will not see increased droughts in the future due to climate change.
I agree, and it's that kind of thing I expect to see discussed here. A confluence of unusual or record events easily leads to connecting them to climate change when there's not much evidence that's true. Other things, like a slowly rising average temperature over a wide area may actually have more merit in terms of it being caused by climate change but it mostly passes unnoticed until the records build up long enough for us to recognize something is happening. I'm primarily interested in current and short term weather. Record breaking events will and should be discussed but I hope every string of records doesn't get us entangled in climate change when current weather is still going to happen regardless of how it turns out later in relation to climate change.
Below are the recent Storm Reports from SPC for our recent system, covering the last 3 days. Anyone know if there's a simple way to get them all on one map? I looked around SPC, but don't see a way to do it.



Quoting 102. LAbonbon:

Below are the recent Storm Reports from SPC for our recent system, covering the last 3 days. Anyone know if there's a simple way to get them all on one map? I looked around SPC, but don't see a way to do it.

No, an option like that doesn't exist. You could use photoshop, but that's time consuming.

FWIW, the SPC has a new severe weather reports page under development:

Link
In case you haven't seen the tornado map for 2014.


U.S. tornado activity below normal in 2014

Pattern can change quickly, so remain prepared
Date Posted: December 31, 2014

2014 tornadoes
2014 United States Tornadoes and Departures from 10-Year Average.

.
Fewer tornadoes than usual occurred in the United States in 2014, making this year the third in a row with below-average numbers, according to NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center.

With about 800 tornadoes through November, the preliminary 2014 count (pending final numbers for December) will be about 200 tornadoes shy of the 50 year average number of 1,000 tornadoes. This is the lowest preliminary count since 682 tornadoes occurred from January through November in 1982 and the third year in a row with fewer than 900 tornadoes.

During the past 50 years the U.S. has experienced periods of three to five consecutive years with below normal tornadoes. The most recent of these was from 1985 to 1989. However, determining patterns in the long-term record is made difficult by changes in tornado observing and reporting practices, said Greg Carbin, SPC warning coordination meteorologist.

The causes for recent tornado deficits are not entirely clear, Carbin said. Heat and drought may have curtailed tornado activity after an active period in early March in 2012. Cooler-than-normal conditions in early spring of 2013 and 2014 limited more widespread thunderstorm development, a crucial ingredient needed for tornadoes.

The deadliest and largest tornado outbreak of 2014 occurred April 27-28, when 34 people died after a total of 70 tornadoes struck the Southeast, including an EF-4 tornado that struck Vilonia, Arkansas.

Weather patterns vary significantly from year to year and season to season and it’s, therefore, uncertain if the low tornado numbers will continue into 2015.

“The conditions necessary for a tornado outbreak can come together in a matter of days,” Carbin said. “The pattern can change quickly and it is best to remain prepared, especially as spring approaches.”

Link
Rainbow Color Infrared Loop:

106. vis0

Quoting 48. sar2401:

That's a good point about horticulturalists and weather. I had an old German widower down the street who's entire backyard was a garden. When he saw me building my pathetic instrument shelter, he invited me over and showed me how he built his, which was a lot less likely to fall apart in the first storm. We built a pretty nifty shelter out of wood Coke crates. Those were the days before Coke crates were considered a "collectible". The neighbors considered him a little nuts too, so we got along fine, and this was way before the time parents worried about "funny" neighbors. He taught me a lot about how to look at clouds and the wind, the way the sun looked when it was shining through different types of cloud layers, and even how the air smelled before rain or colder weather. He had a simple weather log he had been keeping from almost 50 years. His name was Ludwig and I like to think he provides all the tomatoes in Heaven today.
:-)
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

However, I would caution attributing individual weather events to climate change, as extreme events are usually the culmination of not one factor, but typically several, and anomalous weather events are certain to appear even in constant climates. For example, NOAA released a study a few weeks ago that said the California drought was primarily natural instead of human-influenced; that does not mean we will not see increased droughts in the future due to climate change.
FWIW, that NOAA study on drought attribution was quickly and roundly criticized for failing to look at the whole picture. In short, it concluded that the only reason there's a drought in California is that it hasn't rained there. :\
Yep, they did not take all of the factors into account.
Quoting 100. Gearsts:



Lol. A black hole swallowing the Caribbean? Looks threatening, but probably just a bit of moist air amid very dry one?


Saved loop.

Sideglance: Moisture in the WPac looks very agitated right now. Something's brewing over there?

Click to enlarge.

Good night folks from Europe, have a nice evening!
Quoting 90. Doppler22:

So tomorrow I am expecting 1-3" of some white stuff not really seen since Thanksgiving. I guess I should be excited, its more snow then I got during all of December. *sigh* Mother Nature needs to get cranking with Old Man Winter out East.

Also, Welcome to the blog Bob Henson :D


Tomorrow has several names (Epiphany, Three King's Day, Little Christmas). And in some cultures it's when Christmas is celebrated. So you're getting a white (Little) Christmas :)
The Boys in Birmingham, in addition to talking about our hard freeze, are also getting a might nervous about the weekend. We may be entering a period Hydrus has talked about - a phasing between the polar jet and the subtropical jet. If things go as forecast, this phasing won't be over in a day or two but may go on for five or six days, with several separate chances for liquid rain, freezing rain, sleet, snow...or nothing may happen. This is why the Boys are nervous. This forecasting dilemma is looming on the horizon just like last January, and getting the type of precipitation or the onset time wrong this time will cause some real venting by folks down here. This is one of those times I'm happy to just be an amateur.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
315 PM CST MON JAN 5 2015

.DISCUSSION...

A SERIES OF STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AREAS WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE FROM CANADA INTO OUR REGION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS
SHORTWAVES ROTATE AROUND THE BASE OF A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL VORTEX
TO OUR NORTHEAST. THIS WILL KEEP CONDITIONS COOL AND DRY FOR
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...WITH AN ARCTIC BLAST LOOMING FOR THURSDAY.
THE FORECAST HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE LOWER
TEENS NORTH TO UPPER TEENS SOUTH. ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

THE PATTERN IS LOOKING MUCH MORE INTERESTING BY FRIDAY AS THE
SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM BECOMES INVOLVED. A LARGE CONFLUENCE ZONE
WHERE THE SUBTROPICAL JET MERGES WITH THE POLAR JET WILL SUPPORT
AN ELONGATED AREA OF STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FROM CANADA INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY REGION. THIS WILL CAUSE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
SHALLOW LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WHILE SOUTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL
FLOW LEADS TO ISENTROPIC LIFT. THOUGH THE LOW-LEVELS MAY REMAIN
TOO DRY FOR APPRECIABLE PRECIPITATION... HAVE INTRODUCED A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF RAIN AND SLEET IN TO THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES FOR
FRIDAY WITH MODELS INDICATING SATURATION AT 700MB.

THE SHALLOW COLD AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE WEEKEND
WITH ANOTHER WAVE OF ISENTROPIC LIFT EXPECTED. THIS COULD LEAD TO
THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE
NORTH AS WARM ADVECTION OCCURS IN THE 850MB LAYER. FORECAST
CONFIDENCE DECREASES BY SUNDAY WITH MODELS HAVING DIFFICULTY
RESOLVING ANY DISTINCT SHORTWAVES. FOR NOW WILL KEEP THINGS LIQUID
AFTER DAYBREAK SUNDAY...BUT IF COLD AIR REMAINS MORE ENTRENCHED
THAN MODELS CURRENT INDICATE...WE COULD HAVE A MESS ON OUR HANDS.

87/GRANTHAM
Quoting 111. sar2401:

The Boys in Birmingham, in addition to talking about our hard freeze, are also getting a might nervous about the weekend. We may be entering a period Hydrus has talked about - a phasing between the polar jet and the subtropical jet. If things go as forecast, this phasing won't be over in a day or two but may go on for five or six days, with several separate chances for liquid rain, freezing rain, sleet, snow...or nothing may happen. This is why the Boys are nervous. This forecasting dilemma is looming on the horizon just like last January, and getting the type of precipitation or the onset time wrong this time will cause some real venting by folks down here. This is one of those times I'm happy to just be an amateur.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
315 PM CST MON JAN 5 2015


(majority of discussion snipped)

...BUT IF COLD AIR REMAINS MORE ENTRENCHED
THAN MODELS CURRENT INDICATE...WE COULD HAVE A MESS ON OUR HANDS.

87/GRANTHAM



I love how they ended their discussion :)
Meanwhile, Australia burns--again--as this remarkable after dark time exposure photograph shows:




Tomorrow, as usual, I will be here

Joan of Arc' Parade,New Orleans



On this day of birth for Joan of Arc,
the Maid of Orleans, we celebrate the
rebirth of New Orleans.

We walk on this night to reflect on the
past year and rejuvenate for the New
Year. We honor all those who have fallen
by the sword, fire, and flood.
We burn
candles to brighten this Twelfth Night,
lighting the way for Mardi Gras season.

Joan of Arc, Saint, Warrior, Leader, and
Honorary Maid of New Orleans, we
thank you for shining your golden light
on us and ask you to bless New Orleans
in 2015, on this, the anniversary of the
603rd year of your birth.

January 6, 2015


St Joan of Arc Parade-New Orleans Jan 6th, 2011 images and video.




Statue of Joan of Arc,St. Peters St.



Joan of Arc directly in front of St. Louis Cathedral.




Joan of Arc on Royal Street, view begins in Jackson Square




Quoting 110. LAbonbon:

Tomorrow has several names (Epiphany, Three King's Day, Little Christmas). And in some cultures it's when Christmas is celebrated. So you're getting a white (Little) Christmas :)



Click to enlarge.

Visit of the Three Kings in icy weather. Painting of Pieter Bruegel The Elder from 1567 was reflecting weather conditions during the so called Little Ice Age in Flanders.
A couple of posts have mentioned the California drought. BaltimoreBrian posted this fabulous USGS link a little while back:

California drought, visualized with open data

I highly recommend it. The graphical presentation is excellent, and easily understood.


THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA...SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

A RIVER FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE SATILLA RIVER AT ATKINSON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

INLAND HARD FREEZES WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHTS.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AND GALE WARNING CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
Quoting 90. Doppler22:

So tomorrow I am expecting 1-3" of some white stuff not really seen since Thanksgiving. I guess I should be excited, its more snow then I got during all of December. *sigh* Mother Nature needs to get cranking with Old Man Winter out East.

Also, Welcome to the blog Bob Henson :D
Look ANYTHING will be taken at this point.I just want to see something hit the ground and stick.
120. txjac
Link

Weather service to boost its computer power for better forecasting
Computers will go from now being able to handle 426 trillion operations a second to 5,000 trillion calculations in the fall
The upgrade costs $44.5 million
Forecasts will be more reliable and timely

"Jeff Masters, meteorology director of the private company Weather Underground, said this should help U.S. forecasting models catch up with the Europeans."
Bob Henson

Well, I'm a fan , that Boulder Wind Gauge won me over .
Quoting 110. LAbonbon:



Tomorrow has several names (Epiphany, Three King's Day, Little Christmas). And in some cultures it's when Christmas is celebrated. So you're getting a white (Little) Christmas :)



Phunny Phorthy Phellow's

This single streetcar with 40 Phunny Phellows Partying down the St. Charles streetcar line ushers in Mardi Gras season on Epiphany in New Orleans. The Joan Of Arc' Parade is now another newer tradition that happens the same Hour in the French Quarter.



Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

"However, I would caution attributing individual weather events to climate change, as extreme events are usually the culmination of not one factor, but typically several, and anomalous weather events are certain to appear even in constant climates. For example, NOAA released a study a few weeks ago that said the California drought was primarily natural instead of human-influenced; that does not mean we will not see increased droughts in the future due to climate change."

It's amusing to me the extent to which so many don't want to acknowledge the elephant in the room. It's like "don't bring that thing in here -- this is a respectable weather blog, not about climate!." Sadly, by the time we realize that climate is cumulative weather, and it is upon us with a vengeance, it'll be a bit late to have much effect changing its impact. Understanding the relationship and acknowledging it is the first and necessary step toward making the changes necessary to preserve the weather we depend on for our lives.
Quoting 79. bwi:

Dang, winter weather advisory for tomorrow morning in DC. That means we'll have two inches of salt on the roads by midnight.


They are out in force putting down brine west and north of DC. I see winter as the price to pay for our fabulous spring and fall... but I wish every year some generous blogger from Florida would take me in for 3 months.
125. vis0

Quoting 57. ricderr:


Is it true that forecasters are forecasting a hurricane Danny striking Florida in late August? Also what are you guys 2015 Atlantic hurricane season predictions,and do you think neutral conditions will return?



LOL...yes...the long range euro....cmc....and gfs have all latched onto what will be named danny striking florida....
Now all we need is SAR2401s & Grothar's positions  and we'll know 110.5% that FL.  gets A, B & C while D heads toward Tex.. ...too busy looking at what might spin up near SE and see if it gets more "spinning juice" to head up the e coast ~5days as a  bonafide LOW..


very cold night for the northeast tonight
Mount Washington sounds like the place to be for winter weather lovers: -17F, winds at 90-100 mph gusting to 120 (that's a wind chill of about -65F), and visibilities near zero.



You know, I do believe I'll stay in Florida...
Quoting LAbonbon:


I love how they ended their discussion :)
Me too. It's kind of an early warning signal to those in authority to pay attention this weekend since there's not only a possibility of trouble but it also might nor get forecast long before it happens. Assuming I was in charge of such things, I'd at least be checking on how much sand was available and how many employees would around this weekend to spread it.
Quoting CaneFreeCR:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

"However, I would caution attributing individual weather events to climate change, as extreme events are usually the culmination of not one factor, but typically several, and anomalous weather events are certain to appear even in constant climates. For example, NOAA released a study a few weeks ago that said the California drought was primarily natural instead of human-influenced; that does not mean we will not see increased droughts in the future due to climate change."

It's amusing to me the extent to which so many don't want to acknowledge the elephant in the room. It's like "don't bring that thing in here -- this is a respectable weather blog, not about climate!." Sadly, by the time we realize that climate is cumulative weather, and it is upon us with a vengeance, it'll be a bit late to have much effect changing its impact. Understanding the relationship and acknowledging it is the first and necessary step toward making the changes necessary to preserve the weather we depend on for our lives.
I don't believe that was TA's intention at all. The real elephant in the room is identifying what are the big things going wrong and what can we do about them. We can't fix everything. It's going to be really cold this week. Does that mean global warming isn't really happening? Of course not, but a drought in California also doesn't necessarily mean it's caused by global warming. I'll bet there is a study a day identifying things which may be caused by or made worse by global warming. Do we jump on each one and "do" something about it with insufficient proof of the cause? What we need to do is identify the top five or top ten things that we know are going to cause major problems and start to at least plan about how to deal with them. That's what I don't see happening, and that's the elephant in the room.
Quoting vis0:

Now all we need is SAR2401s & Grothar's positions  and we'll know 110.5% that FL.  gets A, B & C while D heads toward Tex.. ...too busy looking at what might spin up near SE and see if it gets more "spinning juice" to head up the e coast ~5days as a  bonafide LOW..
I already gave my prediction. It's going to be Hurricane Fred. I just love that name. :-)
AO.
I would like to see more entries regarding winter weather-both temperatures and snow. This would include entries about El-Nino, NAO, and AO.
FOR ENTERTAINMENT PURPOSES ONLY
Afternoon temperatures for the 17th.
Quoting 48. sar2401:

That's a good point about horticulturalists and weather. I had an old German widower down the street who's entire backyard was a garden. When he saw me building my pathetic instrument shelter, he invited me over and showed me how he built his, which was a lot less likely to fall apart in the first storm. We built a pretty nifty shelter out of wood Coke crates. Those were the days before Coke crates were considered a "collectible". The neighbors considered him a little nuts too, so we got along fine, and this was way before the time parents worried about "funny" neighbors. He taught me a lot about how to look at clouds and the wind, the way the sun looked when it was shining through different types of cloud layers, and even how the air smelled before rain or colder weather. He had a simple weather log he had been keeping from almost 50 years. His name was Ludwig and I like to think he provides all the tomatoes in Heaven today.



He'll have competition in the tomato market when I get there. I try to separate from the pack on tomato quality, greens season duration and corn earliness among other metrics ( Others can beat me on tomato earliness)
Quoting 133. Tornado6042008X:


Looks like the storm pattern has stayed put from last year into this year.A storm every Tuesday XD.During the summer thunderstorms,during the fall rain storms now winter snow storms?

Quoting Sfloridacat5:
In case you haven't seen the tornado map for 2014.


U.S. tornado activity below normal in 2014

Pattern can change quickly, so remain prepared
Date Posted: December 31, 2014

2014 tornadoes
2014 United States Tornadoes and Departures from 10-Year Average.

.
Fewer tornadoes than usual occurred in the United States in 2014, making this year the third in a row with below-average numbers, according to NOAA%u2019s Storm Prediction Center.

With about 800 tornadoes through November, the preliminary 2014 count (pending final numbers for December) will be about 200 tornadoes shy of the 50 year average number of 1,000 tornadoes. This is the lowest preliminary count since 682 tornadoes occurred from January through November in 1982 and the third year in a row with fewer than 900 tornadoes.

During the past 50 years the U.S. has experienced periods of three to five consecutive years with below normal tornadoes. The most recent of these was from 1985 to 1989. However, determining patterns in the long-term record is made difficult by changes in tornado observing and reporting practices, said Greg Carbin, SPC warning coordination meteorologist.

The causes for recent tornado deficits are not entirely clear, Carbin said. Heat and drought may have curtailed tornado activity after an active period in early March in 2012. Cooler-than-normal conditions in early spring of 2013 and 2014 limited more widespread thunderstorm development, a crucial ingredient needed for tornadoes.

The deadliest and largest tornado outbreak of 2014 occurred April 27-28, when 34 people died after a total of 70 tornadoes struck the Southeast, including an EF-4 tornado that struck Vilonia, Arkansas.

Weather patterns vary significantly from year to year and season to season and it%u2019s, therefore, uncertain if the low tornado numbers will continue into 2015.

%u201CThe conditions necessary for a tornado outbreak can come together in a matter of days,%u201D Carbin said. %u201CThe pattern can change quickly and it is best to remain prepared, especially as spring approaches.%u201D

Link
We're starting off on a lot faster track in Alabama this year. We had two confirmed EF-0 tornadoes in the Birmingham WSO area, one confirmed EF-2 tornado in the Mobile WSO area, and one that's still waiting for confirmation in Houston and Dale Counties, just to the south of me. There was also quite a bit of high level straight line wind damage. As far as I can tell, the Huntsville area had just some straight line wind damage but a fair amount of flash flooding. Thankfully, the major victims were trees and chicken houses with no injuries reported. This storm was a good example of how winter storms in the South can not look like a big deal and then blow up over a couple of hours.
138. vis0

Quoting 120. txjac:
Link
Weather service to boost its computer power for better forecasting Computers will go from now being able to handle 426 trillion operations a second to 5,000 trillion calculations in the fall The upgrade costs $44.5 million
Forecasts will be more reliable and timely

"Jeff Masters, meteorology director of the private company Weather Underground, said this should help U.S. forecasting models catch up with the Europeans."
Did someone say Ketchup!
...ah i'm old enough to remember when USofA stood for leading in new developments because our dreams painted a brighter picture.
Now many are preoccupied with the colour of the thread that is re-threading the needle that pokes some into action 'cause the thread is red or blue.
 i appreciate all the hard work into building/upgrading such a system wish the entire world joined in and linked all individual systems to better predict for the world, then we'd be catching up to a place 5k to 6k yrs ahead of Earth in technology.
Quoting 136. washingtonian115:

Looks like the storm pattern has stayed put from last year into this year.A storm every Tuesday XD.During the summer thunderstorms,during the fall rain storms now winter snow storms?


I think people around here do somethings every Tuesday that upset Mother Nature. So she does what she has to do to stop those activities from taking place.
Quoting sar2401:
I don't believe that was TA's intention at all. The real elephant in the room is identifying what are the big things going wrong and what can we do about them. We can't fix everything. It's going to be really cold this week. Does that mean global warming isn't really happening? Of course not, but a drought in California also doesn't necessarily mean it's caused by global warming. I'll bet there is a study a day identifying things which may be caused by or made worse by global warming. Do we jump on each one and "do" something about it with insufficient proof of the cause? What we need to do is identify the top five or top ten things that we know are going to cause major problems and start to at least plan about how to deal with them. That's what I don't see happening, and that's the elephant in the room.
Well, the elephant in the room, such as it is, is those profiting handsomely off of the four million-plus metric tons of CO2 we humans are pumping into the environment every hour of every day, people who are betting on the ignorance of the masses to not notice them doing so.

At any rate, you've several times today made the very common mistake of saying that some are "blaming" the drought on climate change. The thing is, no one is doing that. Furthermore, continuing to say they are is a bit of a strawman. The fact remains that the current California drought is the worst on human record there, and the worst there in at least the past 1,200 years. It's simple physics, really: unprecedented heat plus unprecedented lack of precipitation equals unprecedented drought. So--as has been noted by many very educated and knowledgeable people over the past month since the NOAA study was released--it's not enough to say the CA drought is bad only because it hasn't rained; the researchers should have also considered the historical heat that has accompanied that drought. They didn't do that. And that's the study's flaw.

Now, I don't know whether the CA drought is in the "top ten" things we know are going to cause trouble. But when a place as large and important to our nation is in as deep of trouble as California is, it would be pretty darn foolish to ignore the drought and its causes simply because we can't absolutely "blame" it on climate change.
Quoting LAbonbon:
Below are the recent Storm Reports from SPC for our recent system, covering the last 3 days. Anyone know if there's a simple way to get them all on one map? I looked around SPC, but don't see a way to do it.

Cripes, WU wrecks the image output from the prototype map at the link that TA gave but it does cover every state on one map. I haven't explored it enough to see if it will also cover multiple days. You can see one map I did that covers 1/03.
Started snowing here in Central Illinois at 4:30.. Visibility down to less then 50 feet with blowing snow causing serious problems !!

Temperature 11º after a high of 17º .. Wind chill temperatures are between a-5 to -15º ...
As per the whole , "Any one weather event cannot be pointed out as proof of climate change ............... "

That is true up to a point , but the "weather" is always taking place within a "climate" that has never seen the pressures we are placing on it. This giant uncontrolled chemical experiment we are currently conducting on the thin shell of gases we call our atmosphere.

The latest example of this experiment that comes to mind , the weather report from Iran last week :

Air Pollution In Tehran Sends Hundreds To Hospitals

Tehran officials have urged sick and elderly people to stay indoors and away from heavy traffic areas.

The Iranian capital -- which has a population of some 12 million -- has some of the most-polluted air among the world's major cities.


By the way , the US Census said we began 2015 with 7.2 Billion humans on the planet. When I read that , I wondered how many dinosaurs were walking around the day before the Great impactor slammed into the Chicxulub neighborhood ?
Because on that day , the dinosaurs were not mowing their lawns with gasoline powered mowers, or driving to the store in their F-150 pick-up trucks . Or operating thousands of cement plants burning old rubber tires.

They were not strip mining Wyoming , to run their power plants. Or drilling in 10,000 feet of water off the coast of Brazil. They were not cutting off the tops of mountains in West Virgina. They were not chain sawing the forests to plant palm oil plantations.

I could go on from here all night , with insults we have dealt the planet , we cut down 95 % of every tree in America. When one sees the trees we didn't cut down, that tiny 5% . You go church. You see something greater than yourself.

Once up on a time in America , just 150 years ago we had zero asphalt roads. As humans we suffer from what gave birth to our comfort, and the bill to is coming for that comfort.

The biggest credit card bill in history.

To compare what we are up to in just 150 years to the great sweep of Earth's past , is great mistake.
Quoting vis0:

Did someone say Ketchup!
...ah i'm old enough to remember when USofA stood for leading in new developments because our dreams painted a brighter picture.
Now many are preoccupied with the colour of the thread that is re-threading the needle that pokes some into action 'cause the thread is red or blue.
 i appreciate all the hard work into building/upgrading such a system wish the entire world joined in and linked all individual systems to better predict for the world, then we'd be catching up to a place 5k to 6k yrs ahead of Earth in technology.
Thae sad thing is that, when the upgrade is done, we'll have just caught with the ECMWF supercomputer capabilities. The British are building our a bigger system and China says they expect to have the largest weather supercomputer in two to three years time. It's like we're pro sports teams instead of weather forecasting centers, each one trying to get the most high powered new quarterback. Imagine what could be done if all the nations would simply combine their capabilities into one global center. I'm certain that couldn't help us with weather prediction or being able to be more sure of the effects of global warming...right? Instead, we'll keep spending duplicated money and issuing press releases about who has the biggest..ahh...supercomputer. :-)
Quoting 136. washingtonian115:

Looks like the storm pattern has stayed put from last year into this year.A storm every Tuesday XD.During the summer thunderstorms,during the fall rain storms now winter snow storms?

Blame the traffic patterns..
Quoting ColoradoBob1:
As per the whole , "Any one weather event cannot be pointed out as proof of climate change ............... "

That is true up to a point , but the "weather" is always taking place within a "climate" that has never seen the pressures we are placing on it. This giant uncontrolled chemical experiment we are currently conducting on the thin shell of gases we call our atmosphere.

The latest example of this experiment that comes to mind , the weather report from Iran last week :

Air Pollution In Tehran Sends Hundreds To Hospitals

Tehran officials have urged sick and elderly people to stay indoors and away from heavy traffic areas.

The Iranian capital -- which has a population of some 12 million -- has some of the most-polluted air among the world's major cities.


By the way , the US Census said we began 2015 with 7.2 Billion humans on the planet. When I read that , I wondered how many dinosaurs were walking around the day before the Great impactor slammed into the Chicxulub neighborhood ?
Because on that day , the dinosaurs were not mowing their lawns with gasoline powered mowers, or driving to the store in their F-150 pick-up trucks . Or operating thousands of cement plants burning old rubber tires.

They were not strip mining Wyoming , to run their power plants. Or drilling in 10,000 feet of water off the coast of Brazil. They were not cutting off the tops of mountains in West Virgina. They were not chain sawing the forests to plant palm oil plantations.

I could go on from here all night , with insults we have dealt the planet , we cut down 95 % of every tree in America. When one sees the trees we didn't cut down, that tiny 5% . You go church. You see something greater than yourself.

Once up on a time in America , just 150 years ago we had zero asphalt roads. As humans we suffer from what gave birth to our comfort, and the bill to is coming for that comfort.

The biggest credit card bill in history.

To compare what we are up to in just 150 years to the great sweep of Earth's past , is great mistake.
OK, so you've laid out another laundry list of what's wrong and all the things we've done to the earth. It's not just one credit card bill coming due. It's the equivalent of thousands coming due. We can't pay them all off. Which one do we pay first? What's the most important bill? Pick one and then let's get a start on a plan about how to pay the bill. One more comparison of humans versus dinosaurs doesn't solve a single problem.
Quoting georgevandenberghe:


He'll have competition in the tomato market when I get there. I try to separate from the pack on tomato quality, greens season duration and corn earliness among other metrics ( Others can beat me on tomato earliness)
I hope you and Ludwig have a change to meet up some day. You guys would have a great time swapping notes.
148. vis0

Quoting 136. washingtonian115:

Looks like the storm pattern has stayed put from last year into this year.A storm every Tuesday XD.During the summer thunderstorms,during the fall rain storms now winter snow storms?


Ask Prof. Irwin Corey The World's Foremost Authority he'll tell you..."That" is a pronoun which is often used....now what was i talking bout.. Met him selling newspapers (he was) on 3rd & 35th Manhattan a few yrs ago, gave him money w/o didn't want the paper told him thank you for making me laugh as a kid. He told me he was at a night club  near the village but i was heading to NYS that eve. Luvd him on Merv Griffen with Charro cuchi cuchi


wow its getting cold outside in the northeast and very windy to
Quoting 134. Tornado6042008X:

FOR ENTERTAINMENT PURPOSES ONLY
Afternoon temperatures for the 17th.

no way -17'F

Quoting 133. Tornado6042008X:



I like this potential for early next week, and many of the models are seeing an overrunning event in some shape or form. Will be interesting to see how this plays out as this week progresses.
152. vis0
Quoting 102. LAbonbon:

Below are the recent Storm Reports from SPC for our recent system, covering the last 3 days. Anyone know if there's a simple way to get them all on one map? I looked around SPC, but don't see a way to do it.

blend SAMPLE of real activity
image post (Save img if you want it, they are removed after 3 months its a free service)

Not really as stated by earlier post, photoshoping it. The following was a method i thought USGS could use (~2009) in using overlays/layers then blending no more than 3 together by 33% each (i think the faintest -3 day- i under-did by 10%) USGS now has better as something similar where BUT one can toggle  an overlay of dates but as you know if it gets too busy all you see are lines not dots & eventually just blotches.  Another version of above is here (this was that NOAA would allow for 3 images to be blended any overlap would blink, idea sent to NOAA ~2009.)
Quoting 151. Drakoen:


I like this potential for early next week, and many of the models are seeing an overrunning event in some shape or form. Will be interesting to see how this plays out as this week progresses.

I will take anything at this point then just more rain.
Clipper looks like an elephant.


The clipper should be here by 4-5 am.
Winter Weather Advisory in effect from 4am to 1pm.

A closer look.
Nearby Weather Stations very cold outside at 8:28pm
Beacon Hill/Lake Saltonstall - Branford, Branford
22.1 °F
DopplerDon.com
22.4 °F
Rock Hill
21.9 °F
New Haven - Criscuolo Park
26.8 °F
Foxon
20.5 °F
East Haven Town Beach
22.9 °F
east haven morgan point
23.9 °F


in one hour the temp in east haven was 34F NOW IS DOWN TO 22F in two hours..wow
The Tampa Bay area was a little too warm and steamy this past holiday vacation, I miss my family and the fun of the holidays, but am happy to be back in fresh cooler air and to tackle the next chapter of school!

On another note, my rain gauge checked in at 11.44 over the break, and at least 10 of that fell in 2 days shortly before Christmas leading to water rescues, and likely around 1.25 or so from the squall line yesterday I can see evidence of the damage from flash flooding in the area including a lot of erosion in creeks and river areas.

The funny thing is, the rain gauge holds up to 12 inches, it was really close to overflowing, but thankfully it did not so I still got an accurate reading!

I'm happy to have the cooler weather, which I like, but the weather on Thursday will be a bit colder than I like. Not really looking forward to waking up for a 8 AM class Thursday being that I am not a morning person, and that we are expected low 20's in the morning with gusty winds and highs only in the low 40's!



There is some chatter in the comment sectio that this thing could over perform.
162. vis0

Quoting 154. Drakoen:

Clipper looks like an elephant.



Winter storm Dumbo? (...BaBar,,,if barbamz covered european storm babar)... ..        i've obviously been drinking too much milk.
Quoting 160. washingtonian115:


There is some chatter in the comment sectio that this thing could over perform.


the advisory noaa sent out said the heaviest bands could contain some pretty hefty amounts of snow
Quoting 163. Articuno:



the advisory noaa sent out said the heaviest bands could contain some pretty hefty amounts of snow
Might surprise a few.I'm telecommuting for safety reasons because i know people will make bad decisions tomorrow when driving.DMV drivers are awful even though some have driven through snow practically ll there lives.
SPAC/SIND Update.

Invert 90P



Could become a Cyclone in the next few days but will be pushed East or Southeast by an upper lever trough currently moving across Queensland.

Invest 99S.



The BOM's MetEye model doesn't develop this invest. As you can see, the main circulation has moved SE and away from the Indian Ocean/Timor sea and has become elongated. Though there is a possibility that the increased convective activity NW of Broome could become a point of interest all be it, no models are showing this.


In the Gulf of Carpentaria, there is a chance of a low developing at the end of this week or early next week as the Monsoon trough becomes embedded.
I think the idea that people up north somehow know how to drive in snow is a myth. There is more effort put into clearing snow off the roads which would make a big difference in safety, but I've seen lots of utuber videos from up north with cars out of control and going too fast.
Quoting 108. bappit:

Yep, they did not take all of the factors into account.
Or they didnt account for all the factors....pfft
Quoting 164. washingtonian115:

Might surprise a few.I'm telecommuting for safety reasons because i know people will make bad decisions tomorrow when driving.DMV drivers are awful even though some have driven through snow practically ll there lives.


I'm hoping schools are closed tomorrow because I have three teens driving to three schools and I think conditions are going to be bad. I'm expecting ice with powdery snow on top on the side streets. Not bad on the pretreated main arteries but getting TO them and to the final destination is another matter.
Quoting 166. bappit:

I think the idea that people up north somehow know how to drive in snow is a myth. There is more effort put into clearing snow off the roads which would make a big difference in safety, but I've seen lots of utuber videos from up north with cars out of control and going too fast.


I think the snow in the mid atlantic is "more slippery". Yeah really. Ice is worst at the melting point and provides more and more friction as temperatures cool significantly below the melting point. Our events tend to be very close to freezing.

That said a lot of events in the North are also marginal for temperature and create the same issue.
Quoting 166. bappit:

I think the idea that people up north somehow know how to drive in snow is a myth. There is more effort put into clearing snow off the roads which would make a big difference in safety, but I've seen lots of utuber videos from up north with cars out of control and going too fast.
Yes that is a myth.And Washingtonian's,Marylander's,and northern Virginian's all prove this.
Quoting 168. georgevandenberghe:



I'm hoping schools are closed tomorrow because I have three teens driving to three schools and I think conditions are going to be bad. I'm expecting ice with powdery snow on top on the side streets. Not bad on the pretreated main arteries but getting TO them and to the final destination is another matter.
You know how conservative these people can get when it comes to making decisions.I'm calling two hour delay for kids in the area at best.
Quoting hydrus:
Or they didnt account for all the factors....pfft

I wanted to emphasize the irony. TA said there were too many influences (factors) at work to attribute events to climate change using the drought as an example. Then the people who did a study saying it was not attributable to climate change were themselves tripped up by all the influences that figure into creating drought conditions. They published a bad study.

It is just as difficult to assert that an event is not attributable to climate change as it is to assert that it is.
Quoting 146. sar2401:

OK, so you've laid out another laundry list of what's wrong and all the things we've done to the earth. It's not just one credit card bill coming due. It's the equivalent of thousands coming due. We can't pay them all off. Which one do we pay first? What's the most important bill? Pick one and then let's get a start on a plan about how to pay the bill. One more comparison of humans versus dinosaurs doesn't solve a single problem.
L
There will be no plan to pay the bill. It will only begin to be paid when Mother Nature comes and hauls our sorry a--es off to debtors prison. If you are scientifically illiterate and want to spend your evenings watching Dancing With the Stars and American Idol, and somebody tells you that you don't need to worry your pretty little head about AGW because it's all a lie, a fraud, a hoax, who you gonna believe, especially on Election Day?


its 19F IN NEW HAVEN,CONN!!
Quoting 171. bappit:


I wanted to emphasize the irony. TA said there were too many influences (factors) at work to attribute events to climate change using the drought as an example. Then the people who did a study saying it was not attributable to climate change were themselves tripped up by all the influences that figure into creating drought conditions. They published a bad study.

It is just as difficult to assert that an event is not attributable to climate change as it is to assert that it is.
Bap...I was simply goofing off...For the record , I have more than once found published material that is worth less than the match I used to burn it.
Winter Storm Gorgon to Race Across Midwest, Northeast; Snow for Many Cities, Including Chicago Published Jan 5 2015 08:17 PM EST Winter Storm Gorgon formed over the Northwest Sunday, and in a mere 48 hours it is expected to bring a swath of snow more than 2,000 miles long from the Cascades and Northern Rockies across the Midwest and into the Northeast through Tuesday.

Tuesday.
This fast-moving system has already prompted winter storm watches, warnings, and advisories for parts of 22 states from Washington all the way to New Jersey, as well as the District of Columbia. As of 8:15 p.m. EST Monday, 20 of those states plus D.C. were still under at least one of those alerts.
np, that's one thing the blog is good for
Snow and Ice Reports
Snow has already blanketed parts of the Northwest and much of the northern Rockies. In the Cascade passes of western Washington, warmer air changed snow over to rain before Gorgon moved out, prompting avalanche warnings that remain in effect there. Avalanche warnings also have been issued for several mountain ranges in the northern Rockies.

Gorgon's first target was the state of Washington, where 11.2 inches of snow fell at Chief Joseph Dam in central Washington. Freezing rain fell in central Washington as well, with Mazama reporting up to 0.5 inch of freezing rain. Leavenworth reported a few tree branches down and localized power outages due to ice accumulation.

Gorgon also brought flooding rainfall to parts of western Washington, causing mudslides that have left people stranded and roads closed.

Locally very heavy snowfall hit the mountains of Wyoming and Montana. In the Tetons of Wyoming, Grand Targhee reported 45.8 inches of snow in the 32-hour period ending 1 p.m. MST Monday. In northwest Montana, 25.8 inches fell near Columbia Falls between 10 a.m. MST Sunday and 10 a.m. Monday. Idaho's top total was an estimated 20.1 inches at Pine Creek Pass, which is 38 miles east of Idaho Falls.

In the Plains states, top snowfall totals by state as of 6 p.m. CST Monday included 3 inches in Beulah, North Dakota; 5 inches in Sioux Falls, South Dakota; 3.5 inches near Luverne, Minnesota; 6.8 inches at Johnston, Iowa, in the suburbs of Des Moines; and 2 inches near Macomb and Hope, Illinois.
NewbreedSE
9:10 PM EST
People, enough with the silly cliches about DC "panic". Most residents in the CITY catch metro. As a native Washingtonian, I've
Yet to see any locals panic. The only people that freak out year after year are the media outlets. Why? Because its their job to hype and scream about the weather. Cornball shots of empty shelves in stores, dopey "man in the street" interviews, scenes of spinning tires, crackpot pseudo doctors who give such grand advice like "bundle up and dress appropriately", and doofuses with tiny dogs walking on ice or three foot drifts. Goes on every flooking year...they may as well use stock footage.

lolol but the driving is true.The grocery store was a little bit more crowded then usual but nothing panic like.


light snow in chicago tonight
CalypsoSummer
8:14 PM EST [Edited]
The situation is a little different here, bucky. For one thing, the roads are warm, so the first bit of snow melts, and floats oil up off the road. The next bit of snow lies on top of that oily-water layer. It's NOT the firm footing you get in Joisey or New Yawk or the more northern states. It's real slick and it can be real nasty, especially when there are hills and curves. Which this area specializes in.

Then add the people who aren't accustomed to driving in slick, treacherous conditions. Add the horrendous "normal" gridlock due to too many cars, that the DC area has every single work-day of the year; add the anxious parents who are trying to get to daycare/school to pick up their children somewhere near 'on time,' mix well, and you have yourself a really nasty mess.

Toxic mixture? You bet. But there's more! Garnish this mess with the wanna-be snarkfaces who mock the area for not bein' jus' loike home. Oh, it's a treat, I tell you.
Extreme Cold Weather Alert

Elev 548 ft 43.77 °N, 79.28 °W | Updated 5 sec ago


Partly Cloudy

Partly Cloudy


7.3 °F

Feels Like -8 °F
Issued by The National Weather Service
Chicago, IL
Mon, Jan 5, 3:44 pm CST
... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY...
* TIMING... THIS EVENING THROUGH THE PREDAWN HOURS TUESDAY.
* ACCUMULATIONS... 2 TO 4 INCHES.
* MAIN IMPACT... ROADS WILL BECOME SNOW COVERED RESULTING IN DIFFICULT TRAVEL. HEAVIEST SNOWFALL RATES ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN 8 PM AND MIDNIGHT... WHEN VISIBILITY MAY BE REDUCED TO AROUND ONE QUARTER MILE AT TIMES.
* OTHER IMPACTS... EVEN WITH LIGHTER SNOW EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT... THE DRY NATURE OF THE SNOW AND INCREASING WINDS EARLY TUESDAY MAY RESULT IN BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW... PARTICULARLY IN OPEN AREAS... EVEN AFTER SNOWFALL HAS ENDED.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW WILL CAUSE PRIMARILY TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW COVERED ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITY... AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.
Quoting 178. washingtonian115:

NewbreedSE
9:10 PM EST
People, enough with the silly cliches about DC "panic". Most residents in the CITY catch metro. As a native Washingtonian, I've
Yet to see any locals panic. The only people that freak out year after year are the media outlets. Why? Because its their job to hype and scream about the weather. Cornball shots of empty shelves in stores, dopey "man in the street" interviews, scenes of spinning tires, crackpot pseudo doctors who give such grand advice like "bundle up and dress appropriately", and doofuses with tiny dogs walking on ice or three foot drifts. Goes on every flooking year...they may as well use stock footage.

lolol but the driving is true.The grocery store was a little bit more crowded then usual but nothing panic like.
Quoting 166. bappit:

I think the idea that people up north somehow know how to drive in snow is a myth. There is more effort put into clearing snow off the roads which would make a big difference in safety, but I've seen lots of utuber videos from up north with cars out of control and going too fast.


I do know how to drive on snow and ice. Thirty nine years of experience (thirty six if you discount the three
winters at FSU which yeah.. shouldn't count) and many many trips through this stuff, got me there.
Quoting 166. bappit:

I think the idea that people up north somehow know how to drive in snow is a myth. There is more effort put into clearing snow off the roads which would make a big difference in safety, but I've seen lots of utuber videos from up north with cars out of control and going too fast.


I'm going to have to disagree with you on this one. Really can't judge millions of drivers based on youtube videos. I spent many years in New England, and have driven loads of times in snow. Slid off the road once, at a slow speed, mind you, due to icy conditions. And often times side/local/secondary roads are not cleared at the time people need to drive, it depends on the timing of the snowfall. Driving in several inches of snow does not phase me, but throw in ice, freezing rain, black ice, etc, and that's a whole different ballgame.

People get acclimated to it, just like anything else.

Excessive speed does cause accidents, and accidents occur with every storm. But the vast majority of people drive to work and back in it just fine...unless of course it's ice...
Quoting 178. washingtonian115:

NewbreedSE
9:10 PM EST
People, enough with the silly cliches about DC "panic". Most residents in the CITY catch metro. As a native Washingtonian, I've
Yet to see any locals panic. The only people that freak out year after year are the media outlets. Why? Because its their job to hype and scream about the weather. Cornball shots of empty shelves in stores, dopey "man in the street" interviews, scenes of spinning tires, crackpot pseudo doctors who give such grand advice like "bundle up and dress appropriately", and doofuses with tiny dogs walking on ice or three foot drifts. Goes on every flooking year...they may as well use stock footage.

lolol but the driving is true.The grocery store was a little bit more crowded then usual but nothing panic like.


LOL - the only thing this is missing would be 'tiny dogs wearing sweaters'
Rhinelander, Wisconsin (Airport)
Updated: 8:53 PM CST on January 05, 2015
Scattered Clouds
-8 °F
Scattered Clouds
Windchill: -22 °F
Humidity: 71%
Dew Point: -15 °F
Wind: 7 mph from the WSW
Pressure: 30.40 in (Steady)
My Sister said the windchill was -41 this morning, Yikes...
We're up to 14 confirmed tornadoes from the January 3-4 outbreak so far.

Link
Quoting 165. AussieStorm:

SPAC/SIND Update.

Invert 90P



Could become a Cyclone in the next few days but will be pushed East or Southeast by an upper lever trough currently moving across Queensland.

Invest 99S.



The BOM's MetEye model doesn't develop this invest. As you can see, the main circulation has moved SE and away from the Indian Ocean/Timor sea and has become elongated. Though there is a possibility that the increased convective activity NW of Broome could become a point of interest all be it, no models are showing this.


In the Gulf of Carpentaria, there is a chance of a low developing at the end of this week or early next week as the Monsoon trough becomes embedded.
At a cursory glance, I'd assume a POSSIBLE center relocation under the aforementioned convection, but again, that's just cursory.
63 at midnight, down to 48 this morning, up to 61 this afternoon, and down to 48 again. Mostly sunny through cirrus-type clouds. 0nly 0.31" of rain yesterday--I overestimated how much I received.
Good night, all. Everyone stay safe and warm.

Of course, for the southern Floridians who are soaking up the AC and will be regaling us in the morning with sunny photos and weather reports, just stay safe, as you all are already plenty warm :D
Quoting 166. bappit:

I think the idea that people up north somehow know how to drive in snow is a myth. There is more effort put into clearing snow off the roads which would make a big difference in safety, but I've seen lots of utuber videos from up north with cars out of control and going too fast.


Last winter a guy from a tropical location was stuck in snow near where I live. He had been driving back and forth trying to get out, plus he had been using a shovel to try to dig his vehicle out. When I finished shoveling a sidewalk nearby, he was still stuck, so I offered to help. I drove his vehicle out in about a minute. Granted a lot of people who are used to driving on snow wouldn't know how to drive that vehicle out, because that would be harder than driving an unstuck vehicle on snow. In any event, experience can make a big difference.
...
Quoting 100. Gearsts:




OMG lol boring

Quoting 197. capeflorida:

...
why so serious mang

turn that frown upside down :( :)
Nearby Weather Stations 11:25 PM EST on January 05, 2015
Beacon Hill/Lake Saltonstall - Branford, Branford
18.7 °F
DopplerDon.com
18.8 °F
Rock Hill
18.3 °F
New Haven - Criscuolo Park
21.4 °F
Foxon
17.1 °F
East Haven Town Beach
19.3 °F
east haven morgan point
20.3 °F
Quoting CaribBoy:


OMG lol boring



you are boring you most have a boring life in this wounder full word out there
its going to be a cold night in east haven,conn its 18F AT my house
East Haven, CT
11:46 PM EST on January 05, 2015 (GMT -0500) Beacon Hill/Lake Saltonstall - Branford | Change Station
Elev 20 ft 41.28 °N, 72.86 °W | Updated 27 sec ago

Clear 18.4 °F temp keep fall down fast tonight!
Surprises come in all shapes and sizes:





Source: Final Fantasy Wiki

Yes I'm a nerd. No I don't care. Yes I'm bored. No I'm not apologizing. Leave me alone.
The 0z GFS shows the potential for an overrunning event across the Southeast this weekend as a 1040mb high allows freezing surface temperatures to become juxtaposed against comparatively warmer mid-/low-level temperatures.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
We're up to 14 confirmed tornadoes from the January 3-4 outbreak so far.

Link


This should help you fill in the information for the BMX area tornadoes. It looks like you have a dupe for Marion County and you need to add the Greene County tornado. Two EF-1 and two EF-0 with no injuries or fatalities and all four struck regions of very low population so tree damage was the major outcome. The EF-2 in Crenshaw County (Mobile WSO) traveled 14 miles through a fairly populated rural area but only destroyed some chicken houses and damaged one residence and a car. We were very lucky.

.COUNTY ROAD 117 TORNADO (GREENE COUNTY)...

RATING: EF-1
ESTIMATED PEAK WIND: 100 MPH
PATH LENGTH: 1.63 MILES
PATH WIDTH: 400 YARDS
FATALITIES: NONE
INJURIES: NONE

START DATE: JAN 03 2015
START TIME: 455 PM CST
START LOCATION: 3 N NEW WEST GREENE
START LAT/LON: 32.9598 / -88.1268

END DATE: JAN 03 2015
END TIME: 457 PM CST
END LOCATION: 4.6 N NEW WEST GREENE
END LAT/LON: 32.9828 / -88.1230

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS SURVEYED DAMAGE IN GREENE COUNTY
AND CONFIRMED THE DAMAGE WAS PRODUCED BY A TORNADO. THE TORNADO
TOUCHED DOWN ON COUNTY ROAD 117...SOUTH OF COUNTY ROAD 115. THE
TORNADO NEARLY PARALLELED COUNTY ROAD 117 FOR ITS ENTIRE DURATION
WITH DAMAGE ON BOTH SIDE OF THE ROAD. DAMAGE WAS LIGHT AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PATH WITH ONLY BRANCHES OFF TREES. THE DAMAGE
INTENSIFIED ALONG THE PATH AND DOZENS OF HARDWOODS AND SOFTWOODS
WERE SNAPPED OFF OR WERE UPROOTED. ONE HOME HAD A LARGE TREE FALL
ON IT CAUSING MAJOR DAMAGE. ONE MOBILE HOME SUFFERED MINOR
SKIRTING DAMAGE AND A FEW OUTBUILDINGS WERE DAMAGED.

.OLD BODKA ROAD TORNADO (SUMTER COUNTY)...

RATING: EF-1
ESTIMATED PEAK WIND: 95 MPH
PATH LENGTH: 1.25 MILES
PATH WIDTH: 200 YARDS
FATALITIES: NONE
INJURIES: NONE

START DATE: JAN 03 2015
START TIME: 436 PM CST
START LOCATION: 6 NNE EMELLE
START LAT/LON: 32.8062/ -88.2937

END DATE: JAN 03 2015
END TIME: 437 PM CST
END LOCATION: 4 SSE GEIGER
END LAT/LON: 32.8211 / -88.2822

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS SURVEYED DAMAGE IN SUMTER
COUNTY AND CONFIRMED A TORNADO. THE TORNADO TOUCHED DOWN ALONG STATE
HIGHWAY 116 BETWEEN OLD BODKA ROAD AND STATE HIGHWAY 17. THE TORNADO
TRAVELED NORTHEAST AND LIFTED NEAR OLD BODKA ROAD AND BODKA CREEK. THE
MOST CONCENTRATED DAMAGE WAS NEAR OLD BODKA ROAD WHERE HUNDREDS OF TREES
WERE SNAPPED OFF OR WERE UPROOTED.

.CUBA TORNADO (SUMTER COUNTY)...

RATING: EF-0
ESTIMATED PEAK WIND: 80 MPH
PATH LENGTH: 0.67 MILES
PATH WIDTH: 100 YARDS
FATALITIES: NONE
INJURIES: NONE

START DATE: JAN 03 2015
START TIME: 406 PM CST
START LOCATION: 0.5 MI E OF CUBA
START LAT/LON: 32.4312 / -88.3707

END DATE: JAN 03 2015
END TIME: 408 PM CST
END LOCATION: 1 MI ENE OF CUBA
END LAT/LON: 32.4370 / -88.3615

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS SURVEYED DAMAGE IN SUMTER
COUNTY AND CONFIRMED A WEAK TORNADO. THE TORNADO TOUCHED DOWN JUST
WEST OF PRETTY BRANCH RD ALONG THE NORFOLK SOUTHERN
RAILROAD...ABOUT 0.5 MILES EAST OF CUBA. THE TORNADO TRACKED
NORTHEAST DOWNING SEVERAL LARGE HARDWOODS AND CAUSING DAMAGE TO
THE ROOF AND ANCHORING SYSTEM OF A MANUFACTURED HOME AS IT CROSSED
PRETTY BRANCH RD AND THE RAILROAD TRACK. THE TORNADO MOVED
PARALLEL TO THE RAILROAD TRACK DOWNING APPROXIMATELY A DOZEN
TREES. THE TORNADO LIFTED JUST WEST OF OLD LIVINGSTON RD.

SPECIAL THANKS TO THE MUNOZ FAMILY FOR ASSISTING WITH THE SURVEY.

.HAMILTON TORNADO (MARION COUNTY)...

RATING: EF-0
ESTIMATED PEAK WIND: 85 MPH
PATH LENGTH: 0.28 MILES
PATH WIDTH: 60 YARDS
FATALITIES: NONE
INJURIES: NONE

START DATE: JAN 03 2015
START TIME: 523 PM CST
START LOCATION: 3 MI NNE OF HAMILTON
START LAT/LON: 34.1765 / -87.9537

END DATE: JAN 03 2015
END TIME: 523 PM CST
END LOCATION: 3 MI NE OF HAMILTON
END LAT/LON: 34.1778 / -87.9491

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS SURVEYED DAMAGE IN MARION
COUNTY AND CONFIRMED A WEAK TORNADO. THE TORNADO TOUCHED DOWN NEAR
THE INTERSECTION OF HIGHWAY 43/17 AND BEECHER STREET...ABOUT 3 MILES
NORTHEAST OF HAMILTON. THE TORNADO PATH WAS ALL ON THE SOUTHEAST
SIDE OF HIGHWAY 43/17. ONE HOME SUFFERED ROOF...PORCH AND SHINGLE
DAMAGE AND SEVERAL TREES WERE UPROOTED. SOME OF THE DEBRIS WAS
THROWN SEVERAL HUNDRED YARDS DOWNSTREAM.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The 0z GFS shows the potential for an overrunning event across the Southeast this weekend as a 1040mb high allows freezing surface temperatures to become juxtaposed against comparatively warmer mid-/low-level temperatures.

The Boys down here are in a tizzy over this one. It looks like it will be cold enough with saturation at 700 mb but they aren't sure enough moisture will be available, at least initially, for an overrunning event. We have several shots at ice and sleet from Friday night through Monday night. It will be an interesting weekend.
Quoting KoritheMan:
Surprises come in all shapes and sizes:





Source: Final Fantasy Wiki

Yes I'm a nerd. No I don't care. Yes I'm bored. No I'm not apologizing. Leave me alone.
Oh, just shut up then! :-)

That's a pretty mean looking devil thing. It kind of looks like my imaginary tornado I expect to get me one day.
Quoting DonnieBwkGA:
OMG! Seven inches of rain in Georgia. In just one 24 hour period! You have to post this every day this month to remind us how much rain you got in Georgia...
Quoting ACSeattle:
L
There will be no plan to pay the bill. It will only begin to be paid when Mother Nature comes and hauls our sorry a--es off to debtors prison. If you are scientifically illiterate and want to spend your evenings watching Dancing With the Stars and American Idol, and somebody tells you that you don't need to worry your pretty little head about AGW because it's all a lie, a fraud, a hoax, who you gonna believe, especially on Election Day?
Unfortunately, you're probably right about some big event that it's going to take to get us focused. It's like a railroad crossing that gets lights and gates only after enough people get killed. I wish we could get on the stick based on what we already know but I suspect it's going to have to be a lights and gates type event.
Unimpressed with the dynamics of this clipper at the moment. Lack of 700mb frontogenesis and strong upper level divergence. Snow producing bands are being confined to above 15dbz despite radar depictions.
Quoting 206. sar2401:



This should help you fill in the information for the BMX area tornadoes. It looks like you have a dupe for Marion County and you need to add the Greene County tornado. Two EF-1 and two EF-0 with no injuries or fatalities and all four struck regions of very low population so tree damage was the major outcome. The EF-2 in Crenshaw County (Mobile WSO) traveled 14 miles through a fairly populated rural area but only destroyed some chicken houses and damaged one residence and a car. We were very lucky.

Page has been updated. :)
Quoting 208. sar2401:

Oh, just shut up then! :-)

That's a pretty mean looking devil thing. It kind of looks like my imaginary tornado I expect to get me one day.


It actually does look oddly tornadic now that you mention it, and I've beaten the game at least a dozen times. :P
Quoting 204. KoritheMan:

Surprises come in all shapes and sizes:





Source: Final Fantasy Wiki

Yes I'm a nerd. No I don't care. Yes I'm bored. No I'm not apologizing. Leave me alone.



Should've put a hurricane there. That'll get CaribBoy's hopes up.
just come down from boiler room on the roof 6th check of the day
8.1 outside
chill of 0 at times
boilers are running at 159f all 6 are fired up
cycling off every 30 mins for 30 mins
building temp is holding at 75.2 a .3 degree drop in last 24hrs inside

water pressure running at about 20 psi in system
Quoting 214. TimTheWxMan:




Should've put a hurricane there. That'll get CaribBoy's hopes up.
save it for cane season we can call it the sal monster
Quoting 214. TimTheWxMan:




Should've put a hurricane there. That'll get CaribBoy's hopes up.


Go play Final Fantasy, Timothy.
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
319 AM EST TUE JAN 6 2015

DCZ001-MDZ011-013-014-503>506-508-VAZ026-029-039- 040-051>054-501-
502-505>507-061630-
/O.CON.KLWX.WW.Y.0002.150106T0900Z-150106T1800Z/
DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-SOUTHERN BALTIMORE-PRINCE GEORGES-
ANNE ARUNDEL-NORTHWEST MONTGOMERY-
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN MONTGOMERY-NORTHWEST HOWARD-
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST HOWARD-SOUTHEAST HARFORD-ROCKINGHAM-PAGE-
MADISON-RAPPAHANNOCK-CULPEPER-
PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK-FAIRFAX-
ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-NORTHERN FAUQUIER-
SOUTHERN FAUQUIER-WESTERN LOUDOUN-EASTERN LOUDOUN-
NORTHERN VA BLUE RIDGE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WASHINGTON...BALTIMORE...DUNDALK...
CATONSVILLE...ANNAPOLIS...GERMANTOWN...DAMASCUS.. .ROCKVILLE...
LISBON...COLUMBIA...ELLICOTT CITY...ABERDEEN...HARRISONBURG...
CULPEPER...MANASSAS...MANASSAS PARK...FAIRFAX...ALEXANDRIA...
FALLS CHURCH...WARRENTON...PURCELLVILLE...LEESBURG...ASH BURN...
BIG MEADOWS
319 AM EST TUE JAN 6 2015

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

* PRECIPITATION TYPE...SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...1 TO 3 INCHES.

* TIMING...THIS MORNING. THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL BE FROM 5 AM TO
10 AM.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S.

* WINDS...SOUTH 5 TO 10 MPH.

* IMPACTS...SNOW ACCUMULATING ON SURFACES WELL BELOW FREEZING
WILL MAKE FOR VERY HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW
WILL CAUSE PRIMARILY TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW
COVERED ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.

&&

$$
Winter Weather Advisory

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
504 AM EST TUE JAN 6 2015

...ACCUMULATING SNOW IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE TUESDAY MORNING
COMMUTE...

DEZ001>004-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ016>027-PAZ0 70-071-102-104-
106-061815-
/O.CON.KPHI.WW.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-150106T2100Z/
NEW CASTLE-KENT-INLAND SUSSEX-DELAWARE BEACHES-CECIL-KENT MD-
QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-CAROLINE-SALEM-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-
NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-OCEAN-CUMBERLAND-ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-
ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-COASTAL ATLANTIC-COASTAL OCEAN-
SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-EASTERN CHESTER-
EASTERN MONTGOMERY-LOWER BUCKS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WILMINGTON...DOVER...GEORGETOWN...
REHOBOTH BEACH...ELKTON...CHESTERTOWN...CENTREVILLE...EASTO N...
DENTON...PENNSVILLE...GLASSBORO...CAMDEN...CHERRY HILL...
MOORESTOWN...MOUNT HOLLY...JACKSON...MILLVILLE...HAMMONTON...
CAPE MAY COURT HOUSE...OCEAN CITY...ATLANTIC CITY...
LONG BEACH ISLAND...WHARTON STATE FOREST...MEDIA...PHILADELPHIA...
WEST CHESTER...KENNETT SQUARE...NORRISTOWN...LANSDALE...
MORRISVILLE...DOYLESTOWN
504 AM EST TUE JAN 6 2015

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

* HAZARD TYPE...SNOW.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...1 TO 2 INCHES. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO
3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND THE NORTHERN
DELMARVA REGION.

* TIMING...SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM SOUTHWEST
NORTHEAST BETWEEN 5 AM AND 8 AM. THE STEADIEST ACCUMULATING SNOW
WILL OCCUR DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE AND LAST THROUGH MIDDAY...
BEFORE GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF DURING THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON.

* TEMPERATURES...UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S AT THE ONSET... THEN
RISING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 20S BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

* IMPACTS...THE SNOW FALLING DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE WILL
HAVE A GREATER IMPACT...AND CAUSE SLIPPERY TRAVEL CONDITIONS.
GIVEN THAT THE AIR AND GROUND ARE COLD...THE SNOW WILL
ACCUMULATE ON ALL UNTREATED SURFACES. THE BRIDGES AND OTHER
ELEVATED SURFACES TEND TO BECOME SLIPPERY FASTER AS THEY ARE
COLDER.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW WILL CAUSE
PRIMARILY TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY ROADS AND
LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.

&&


With warm European morning greetings ...

2014 smashes temperature records in Europe
PhysOrg, 12 hours ago
The year 2014 broke a series of heat records in France, Britain, Germany and Belgium, weather agencies reported Monday.
In France, "2014 was the hottest year since 1900," the Meteo-France weather agency said in a statement.
The country's average annual temperature in 2014 was 1.2 degrees Celsius (2.2 degrees Fahrenheit) higher than normal, defined by the long-term average for 1981-2010.
The year 2014 dethroned 2011 as the previous warmest year, which was an average 1.1 C higher than the benchmark.
Meteo-France also pointed to records in Germany and Belgium, saying in both countries the average annual temperature in 2014 was 1.4 C higher than normal.
In Britain, provisional data showed 2014 was the country's warmest year since 1910, according to the Met Office. ...


Met Office confirms 2014 warmest year on record
BBC weather video, 5 January 2015 Last updated at 21:29
Last year is the UK's warmest and fourth wettest year in records dating back to 1910, provisional Met Office figures suggest. Alex Deakin explains.

Australia records third-warmest year in 2014
BBC News, 6 January 2015 Last updated at 06:41 GMT
IMO, driving in snow is definitely an acquired skill set. Anyone can learn, but the more you do it, the better you get.

Agree there idiots everywhere. Universal.

Quoting 166. bappit:

I think the idea that people up north somehow know how to drive in snow is a myth. There is more effort put into clearing snow off the roads which would make a big difference in safety, but I've seen lots of utuber videos from up north with cars out of control and going too fast.
What should we call him?

Quoting 204. KoritheMan:

Surprises come in all shapes and sizes:





Source: Final Fantasy Wiki

Yes I'm a nerd. No I don't care. Yes I'm bored. No I'm not apologizing. Leave me alone.
Quoting 225. HaoleboySurfEC:

What should we call him?


It's the "Caribe Cray Cray".
Cold and snowy greetings from the Eastern Mediterranean and Black Sea Region (for photos go to SevereWeatherEurope):


Current airmasses (saved).


500mb Geopotential Heights, Height Change and Vorticity (Source)


Accumulated snow in Europe until Thursday.

Winter blast causes accidents, closes schools, cancels flights across Turkey
Hurriyet Daily, Tuesday, January 6 2015

Extremely Low Temperatures and Snowfall Expected in Greece
by A. Makris - Jan 5, 2015

Turkey to Jordan Set for Rain, Snow and Wind
By Eric Leister, Meteorologist, January 6, 2015; 4:30 AM ET
The dominant weather pattern across Europe this winter has featured storms tracking across the south from Italy into the Balkans before crossing the Black Sea with impacts in Turkey and neighboring areas. ...


Video from Thrakomakedones, suburb of Athens.


Worldbulletin %u200F@worldbulletin 4 Min.Vor 4 Minuten
Snow descends on Istanbul. http://tinyurl.com/pr975aj pic.twitter.com/e5IvibBkFc
Moon light to the west at Fort Myers Beach.
Quoting 100. Gearsts:




Good morning

I felt that before any more of you tried to reason out this picture, I'd finally clue you in and explain the whole thing. I thought all of you understood I was off "glamping" for the last four days. That picture depicts the effects of the "force field" I created in order to guarantee good weather for my trip! (And it worked!) All a simple explanation!!

Have a wonderful day and I hope all is well with everyone! :-)

Lindy
232. MahFL
Quoting 143. ColoradoBob1:

...the dinosaurs were not mowing their lawns with gasoline powered mowers...



Yes but back then sub tropical forests grew in the Arctic Circle. Also I bet those big dino's produced a lot of methane.....
Quoting 201. Tazmanian:




you are boring you most have a boring life in this wounder full word out there


Yes I have a boring life in paradise. Lol.


Tampa Bay area forecast
Good morning everyone! Any flooding rains expected for FL the next 7 days? Is El Nino here yet? Is the 2015 hurricane season dead already? *sarcasm on :o)

winter refuses to visit us in FL except for this Thursday. One day of cold lol.





Artist rendering of the proposed NFL stadium complex in Los Angeles. I guess this exceptional drought isn't enough of a wake up call for them to maybe think about not including a gigantic pond in the middle of the complex. Ugh
Over acheiving clipper is over acheiving.Really slick roads and people are having trouble driving.
Quoting 239. washingtonian115:

Over acheiving clipper is over acheiving.Really slick roads and people are having trouble driving.


Stay safe Washi and good morning! 57 here it feels cold because it's been in the 70's the past few mornings.


Quoting 239. washingtonian115:

Over acheiving clipper is over acheiving.Really slick roads and people are having trouble driving.
We only got a dusting here. Enjoy! 

Guess I'll have to wait another week....
henson the muppet guy? cant wait for some hurricane blogs. alot of guessing this upcoming season. el nino or not
From BOM

Tropical Pacific waters show signs of cooling

Issued on 6 January 2015 | Product Code IDCKGEWW00


El Nino-like conditions in the tropical Pacific Ocean weakened over the past fortnight, after being close to or exceeding El Nino thresholds for several weeks. Despite this easing, the Bureau's ENSO tracker status remains at El Nino ALERT.
Several indicators have moved back from El Nino thresholds over the past fortnight. Sea surface temperature anomalies have notably cooled by around 0.4 C in the key NINO regions of the central to eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, although temperatures still remain above average along much of the equator. Beneath the surface, temperatures have also eased closer to average in many areas. The Southern Oscillation index remains negative, but is not currently at El Nino thresholds as occurred during spring.
Despite the general step back from El Nino levels, trade winds look likely to weaken once again in coming weeks, which in turn may bring some renewed warming of sea surface temperatures. Climate models generally indicate little significant change over the next two to three months, with warmer than average sea surface temperatures persisting in the tropical Pacific Ocean.


Might see some more warming in nino 3.4 over the coming weeks as BOM mentioned due to the tradewinds beginning to reverse over in nino 4 & nino 3.4


There also was a rise one the POAMA enso plume as well giving indications that El-Nino may not appear until Summer or Fall. This model the past couple of months has been trending toward the CFSv2. Notice the upward tick in values as we approach later in Summer.
A lot of chaos in the D.C area this morning.Power is out in some places like Dupont circle.A lot of people underestimated what would happen so now we're in this situation.DC schools are open on time but I'm not sending my kids in that chaos.PGCPS is closed and parents from other counties are protesting for closure or are refusing to send there kids to school.Pictures of school bus crashes are being posted to social media.As I said the road conditions are very poor and slick and its still not all that bright outside.
Quoting 240. StormTrackerScott:



Stay safe Washi and good morning! 57 here it feels cold because it's been in the 70's the past few mornings.


good morning Scott.The snow is pretty but the situation outside is not.
Quoting 241. Drakoen:


We only got a dusting here. Enjoy! 

Guess I'll have to wait another week....
Thank you!.Some heavy bands have pushed over the area with some moderate ones about to hit D.C.That was not forecast even late yesterday night.

Quoting 239. washingtonian115:

Over acheiving clipper is over acheiving.Really slick roads and people are having trouble driving.
The heaviest band of snow also seems to be right over our region. Instead of to our north.
Quoting 246. Tornado6042008X:


The heaviest band of snowalso seems to be right over our region. Instead of to our north.

Yep this proves it!.
Link
MoCo schols are now closed after parents went on a vicious rant XD.
Coming soon to a theater near you: The Blob That Ate the Greater Antilles

Link
Heavy bands working into DC.

David_J_Mitchell
8:47 AM EST
From Rosslyn - Key Blvd and N Oak St: School bus sideways in the road. Bus driver is letting children off the bus. They are at great risk as they are walking in the middle of the street! One-half block downhill at Key Blvd and N Nash: ART bus sideways in the intersection. Other cars sideways in the road. All traffic blocked in this area now.
2.5 inches at my house and parents raising hell on social media.Updated from NOAA
Quoting 252. washingtonian115:

2.5 inches at my house and parents raising hell on social media.Updated from NOAA

Already 2 and 3/4 of an inch here as of 8:35am.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 252. washingtonian115:

2.5 inches at my house and parents raising hell on social media.Updated from NOAA



Shake hands with parents in Ankara, Wash :-)

Snow also caused the habitual scenes of chaos in the Turkish capital of Ankara, with its many hills and poor infrastructure. A photograph showing young students pushing a school bus that broke down on a slope went viral on social media.
Families expressed their outrage that the Ankara Governor’s Office did not close schools in the city center, declaring snow days instead in only six districts.



Source.
Has anyone else noticed a pattern of interaction between el Nino and the dips in the Jetstream?

Seems that every time that heat starts to build up in the eastern Pacific the Jetstream bows and tamps it back down again .... lather, rinse, repeat pretty much since summer 2012 when that year's almost el Nino fizzeled out.

What bothers me is this continual tamping down is just allowing more and more Heat Energy to build up in the ocean and when it does finally release into the atmosphere it's likely going to be historical
A fine cool day. 37/66 and already down to 46 Waiting for the freeze tomorrow night.