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Blob Watch: The Latest on the Northeast Pacific’s Unusual Warmth

By: Bob Henson 6:17 PM GMT on October 14, 2015

A huge swath of ocean, extending from Hawaii to Baja California and north to the Alaskan coast, has been dominated for much of 2015 by unusually warm sea-surface temperatures (SSTs). In part of the North Pacific, the warm temperatures extend back more than two years. The region that’s come to be known as “The Blob” is more than just a fixed pool of warm water: it’s a dynamic entity that’s been shape-shifting throughout the last couple of years. Persistent as it’s been, The Blob may get a death blow this winter from El Niño.

What exactly is The Blob?
During the winter of 2013-14, researcher Nicholas Bond (University of Washington) noticed a large pool of unusually warm water based in the south central Gulf of Alaska. Within the topmost 300 feet of the ocean, temperatures were as much as 2.5°C (4.0°F) above average in February 2014. By springtime, this warmth had spread east to the coasts of Washington and Oregon. In a report to the Washington state climatologist, Bond dubbed the region of unusually warm water “The Blob.”


Figure 1. Sea-surface temperature anomalies (departures from average) for February 2014 compared to 1981 – 2010. The inner rectangle shows the area analyzed in Nick Bond’s 2015 GRL paper, straddling the region from 135°W to 150°W longitude and 40°N to 50°N longitude. Image credit: American Geophysical Union, used with permission from “Causes and impacts of the 2014 warm anomaly in the NE Pacific,” Geophysical Research Letters, Nicholas Bond et al., doi:10.1002/2015GL063306.


The Blob had its origins in the preceding winter of 2012-13, but Bond found its signature was considerably stronger in 2013-14. By late 2014, two other regions of warmth had developed, one in the Bering Sea and another in the subtropics off Baja California and Mexico. The Blob’s warm anomalies (departures from average) expanded further in 2015, spreading southward toward the equator while growing in east-west breadth. Meanwhile, El Niño began to generate its classic signature of warm water along the equatorial eastern Pacific, just south of The Blob, by the middle of the year. (See this loop of SST anomalies over the past 52 weeks, produced by NOAA’s Earth Systems Research Laboratory.)

The most recent analyses show that the original Blob is now part of a broader east-west zone of warmer-than-normal SSTs that extends west from the Aleutians to the Washington/British Columbia coast. Another zone of even greater warm anomalies runs across the subtropical Pacific from near Hawaii to the California/Mexico coast. Thirdly, along the equator, warmer-than-average SSTs prevail from the International Data Line to the South American coast. El Niño is clearly responsible for the band of equatorial warmth, and at least some of the subtropical warmth, which has fueled record-smashing hurricane activity across the Central Pacific. As for the higher-latitude Blob, that's another matter.


Figure 2. SST anomalies (departures from average) for the period from September 13, 2015 to October 10, 2015. The area analyzed in the inset box of Figure 1 is shown here as a black rectangle south of Alaska. Image credit: NOAA/ESRL/PSD Map Room.


What led to The Blob?
High surface pressure and light winds helped produce the original midlatitude Blob. The persistence of the high pressure at both surface and upper levels was dubbed the Ridiculously Resilient Ridge of 2013 in December of that year by Stanford University doctoral student Daniel Swain at his California Weather Blog. Like the Blob itself, the Ridge persisted as an identifiable feature during 2014 and 2015 as its location evolved. Swain also related the Ridge to the intensification of the ferocious multi-year drought that began in 2011 in California.

The Ridge and the Drought have close family ties. For the study area shown by the rectangle in Figure 1, Nick Bond found that the sea level pressure averaged from October 2013 through January 2014 was higher than for any Oct-Jan period since records began in 1949, and surface wind speeds were the second lowest on record. This relative lack of storminess reduced the amount of mixing between atmosphere and ocean and limited the amount of colder water flowing into the region from the north. In turn, this helped keep surface water over the Blob region from cooling as much as it usually would in autumn and early winter.

During the winter of 2014-15, storms continued to track far to the north across western Canada, again leaving the West Coast largely high and dry and allowing the Blob to gradually expand.

How exactly do the Blob and the Ridge relate to each other?
Experts tend to see the Blob and Ridge as closely connected, but likely triggered by something else. Here’s one leading explanation: back in July, we discussed a recent paper by Dennis Hartmann (University of Washington), who teased out apparent connections during the winter of 2013-14 between warm tropical SSTs west of the Date Line, the Ridiculously Resilient Ridge, and the cold, stormy conditions over parts of the Midwest and Northeast. Hartmann related this chain of events to the North Pacific Mode, a semi-cyclic pattern that helps explain multiyear variations in SSTs over the Pacific. Though many experts believe the tropical Pacific is the ultimate driver of the Ridge and Blob, others have pointed to potential higher-latitude involvement. Research by Jennifer Francis (Rutgers University) has examined the possible influence of Arctic sea ice on the Ridge and other “stuck” midlatitude weather features.

“The Blob and the Ridge most likely had a common etiology,” Swain told me in an email. “It's possible that, once present, the Blob exerted a reinforcing influence on the Ridge, and so there's some possibility that the presence of the Blob enhanced the resilience of the Ridge. But it seems pretty unlikely that the Blob itself was the cause of the Ridge, and so its presence or absence this year probably isn't very relevant for the kind of circulation pattern we are likely to see this winter.”

What happens to the Blob and Ridge this winter?
Strong El Niño events, like the one now in place, tend to generate big winter storms across the Northeast Pacific. Forecast models already show an intensifying parade of storm systems over the Aleutians and Gulf of Alaska for the latter half of October. Over time, the wind and waves from these and subsequent storms should act to erode the original midlatitude Blob. “I feel confident that a strong El Niño event will cool things in a large area around the Date Line and 40°N this winter,” Dennis Hartmann told me in an email. However, SSTs along the immediate coast from California to British Columbia may actually remain well above average this winter. That’s because powerful storms in the Northeast Pacific would tend to foster strong south winds near the coast. Waters near the surface tend to move to the right of the winds above (a process called Ekman transport), so the strong south winds would tend to push warmer water toward the coast and suppress any upwelling of cooler water.

The subtropical warm waters from Hawaii to California could take longer to scour out, as they’re partially a product of the El Niño that will likely remain in place through most or all of the winter. We can expect this southern blob-like feature to help provide warm, moist air for any Northeast Pacific storms that dive toward California. Figure 3 shows how this feature is considerably larger and stronger than it was during the similar El Niño event of late 1997.


Figure 3. Comparison of sea-surface height anomalies (departures from average) measured in late September 1997 (top) and 2015 (bottom), during the onset of comparably strong El Niño events. These images were created from data collected by the TOPEX/Poseidon (1997) and the OSTM/Jason-2 (2015) satellites, using space-based radar altimetry. High sea-surface heights indicate warmer-than-usual water. To create an apples-to-apples comparision, these images were processed by NASA to highlight the year-to-year signal, with seasonal signals and trends removed. Image credit: NASA/JPL.


“It's clear these warm waters have already been influencing weather conditions so far this summer (with an incredible number of Pacific hurricanes, including several that have recurved further northward than we've seen in years),” Swain pointed out. “Persistently warm to hot conditions--along with extremely high dewpoints and even some occasional thunderstorm-related downpours very uncharacteristic of the region--have been occurring across Southern California for months now.”

Swain added: “Ocean surface temperature anomalies of just a few degrees have the potential to add a lot of extra ‘juice’ to incoming Pacific storms this winter. That's yet another reason why it's important not to discount the increased risk of flooding this winter even as California approaches its fifth year since extreme drought began.” Another big question mark is whether any storms that sweep as far north as central California will dump more rain than snow over the Sierra Nevada, where snowpack storage is crucial for the next year’s water supply in California.

Nick Bond is already looking further ahead. “The big question, in my mind, is what happens after the upcoming winter,” Bond said in an email. “Will the weather/wind patterns favor a continuation of the warm ocean conditions, or will there be a switch back to patterns associated with cooler NE Pacific waters?” Recent long-range models suggest that a La Niña could begin emerging in the wake of the current El Niño by mid-2016. If so, that would have a cooling effect on the waters off the U.S. West Coast. Countering this would be any persistence of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, which entered an apparent warm phase in early 2014. Once it’s in place, a given PDO phase can predominate for more than 20 years, and a warm PDO tends to support warmer-than-usual waters off the U.S. West Coast. Added to all this is the overall long-term warming of both atmosphere and ocean across the planet, which has spiked measurably over the last couple of years (partly due to El Niño).


Figure 4. Ocean sunfish have been observed in both 2014 and 2015 off the southern Alaska coast, hundreds of miles north of their usual habitat. The heaviest bony fish in the world, ocean sunfish prefer waters of 54°F or warmer. Crews from the Alaska Fisheries Science Center caught the large ocean sunfish pictured here. Image credit: AFSC, via NOAA.

The Blob, El Niño, and marine life
Bond noted that any prolonging of the unusual oceanic warmth off the West Coast could have major impacts on native marine ecosystems. Many marine species shift north with El Niño and south with La Niña, but those events typically last just a year or two; the Ridge and Blob have now been in place for more than two years. In breadth and strength, the warming in the North Pacific over the last three years has been the most prolonged since records began in 1900. “Many species can shrug off a bad year or two, but longer runs have greater impacts,” said Bond.

"This El Niño is liable to bring some really strange changes in ocean conditions because the widespread warming of the North Pacific we saw with the blob was so far outside of our experience," said Northwest Fisheries Science Center oceanographer Bill Peterson in a NOAA feature story this month. "When you put an El Niño on top of that it is anyone's guess as to how this will affect marine organisms."

We’ll cover NOAA’s official winter outlook for 2014-15 after its release on Thursday. For a deeper dive into the Blob, check out the excellent article by Eric Simons published last month in Bay Nature. If you prefer your Blobology 101 in cartoon form, below is a fun animation produced by Southern California Public Radio (KPCC); h/t to wunderground member barbamz.

Bob Henson


El Niño Extreme Weather

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

We think Man doesn't affect weather....




Looking towards Texas City, TX at the refineries from Galveston TX. This cloud is being created and sustained by the Cat 3 steam stack at Marathon Galveston Bay Refinery where you can see where the steam is going up at the base of the cloud. Man does have an impact on weather...whether you believe it....or not. On numerous mornings at this location I used to see clouds billowing up from this steam stack on drives into work. This pic was taken by someone else, I had to share this for the community.
ferocious multiiyear drought that began in 2011 in California.
At lest the blob has weaken and won't be has March of a player
Thanks Mr. Henson..Amazing how much and how quickly the world is changing..Were living in interesting times.
Quoting 433. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

do you eat it the stuff you hunt


I only hunt deer and yes, wouldn't hunt otherwise. If I have a successful season and I put enough deer meat in the freezer my family and I won't eat beef at home the entire year. Venison is way more healthy than beef and my whole family likes it better than beef in general.
Quoting 3. Tazmanian:

At lest the blob has weaken and won't be has March of a player


This is a forecast, not a certainty.
I hope it verifies though
Thank You Mr. Henson; as shown in your large-scale SST anomaly chart, the Pacific warm "blob" is almost located at the same latitudes as the "cold pool" off of Greenland in the North Atlantic which is believed by many to be a function of cooler waters from the melting Greenland glacial area.......................Anomalous Blobs a Plenty might continue popping up around the world in some surprising places in the coming decades.....................
Quoting 436. MonsterTrough:


Plus 20. Hunt is on! Wife is going to FLA for a trip with her mom for 4 days. I'm heading to the woods for 4 days. First frost of the year up here, and I can't wait to see some movement. 2 weeks ago it was 46, 20mph winds, and rain. Creatures sit tight with high wind. Should be low wind this weekend + Frost = lots of movement.


Where are you located? Has to be along the Northern border with Canada or further North if you've been that cold already! I grew up in SE MN and I don't miss the long cold winters when temps don't go above freezing for months at a time!
Thanks for the Updates, Mr. Henson....
>Quoting 445. sar2401:

Certainly, and that's what makes these 10 models so problematic. They not only have to get TC genesis right, they also have to be right on the entire continental pattern way out in the future. Even if a TC forms, exactly where it would go is an open question except for our usual idle speculation. It would be nice to get some rain up here as well. My total rainfall for the month is 0.31" from a rogue thunderstorm yesterday morning.


I've had about .12 so far this month from a morning rain about a week ago.
472. PlazaRed
6:19 PM GMT on October 14, 2015
2 +
Quoting 457. hydrus:

So that is the main reason for such a rapid rise.?.My finger points more toward Greenland ice melt and to a lesser extent Antarctic ice melt. Ice in the Arctic already displaces a considerate amount of water , therefor may not be as significant as the former. Global warming may actually accelerate if and when we clean up our emissions..There is much studying to be done on this this.

Half the pollution per person, then double the population, you will then end up with the same amount of pollution as before.
As the equipment becomes older it becomes more inefficient so produces more pollution per unit.
Old high pollution engines are exported from the 1st world to the 3rd world where there are no regulations so they continue to produce high levels of pollution prohibited in the 1st world.
The cycle continues until it self destructs.
Meanwhile the human nature will have to contend with the refugees, as the human nature will not permit them to die from everything from loss of habitat to starvation.
Que Sera Sera?

The possible saving grace here is that newer ways of producing energy needs will become much cheaper and more efficient. If population growth continues on its current rate, new forms of energy and power sources will take hold, and in time will be much cheaper than oil and coal.. It is my belief that for the most part, oil and coal will be phased out eventually.
The weather has been beautiful here! I can't wait till it cools down another 10 degrees.
Quoting 451. sar2401:

Got down to 48 this morning up here. That's about six degrees lower than predicted, and the first low in the 40's since early May. The first low in the 40's is my benchmark for when fall begins in SE Alabama. Some of the live oaks are starting to turn and drop leaves, and some sycamores are already half bare. It's up to 83 but the dewpoint is only 53. This is the kind of weather tourists love, but some rain would be nice for the people who live here.


GOM water is still keeping us warm, only reached the mid 60's here this morning. I'm glad to see it cool in Alabama though, means where I hunt in Northern part of Conecuh County the weeds should stop growing so we don't have to bush hog anymore until the Spring time!
Quoting 456. FunnelVortex:



There is hardly any wilderness left in Florida, which is just sad.

I do hear that floridans desperately fight to preserve the state's remaining wilderness before it becomes one big forest of useless uninhabited condos. Wish them luck.


Not true, the Eglin Air Force range is over 700,000 acres alone of protected forest. With all the National parks Florida is pretty good shape, there is still a lot of undeveloped coastline too.
Quoting 15. 69Viking:



Not true, the Eglin Air Force range is over 700,000 acres alone of protected forest. With all the National parks Florida is pretty good shape, there is still a lot of undeveloped coastline too.
Pretty good chance it will stay that way. Judging by whats happening now.
Thanks for enlightening us a bit more on what should probably not BE there (but is!)

Meanwhile I found this on the last blog and it took me a while to read it, then absorb at least some of it.
Being a person who lives 2000 foot up a mountain, sea level rises are not on the normal table of discussions here but we consider them a lot recently.
I would urge anybody living the southern Florida region, along with anybody else on flat land near the sea to not only read this but send it on to anybody else they know as its probably from their point of view a very significant document.
People above the level of sea level by about 50 feet should prepare for problems from their near by neighbours as they get worried about everything from zero property values at first, to where to evacuate too shortly afterwards.

Link
Quoting 1. RitaEvac:

We think Man doesn't affect weather....




Looking towards Texas City, TX at the refineries from Galveston TX. This cloud is being created and sustained by the Cat 3 steam stack at Marathon Galveston Bay Refinery where you can see where the steam is going up at the base of the cloud. Man does have an impact on weather...whether you believe it....or not. On numerous mornings at this location I used to see clouds billowing up from this steam stack on drives into work. This pic was taken by someone else, I had to share this for the community.


Out of curiosity, what substance other than 'steam' is coming out of the steam stack?
Ryan Maue ‏@RyanMaue 1m1 minute ago
Last 48-runs of CFSv2 raw snowfall output for Washington DC.
30-32'' happy medium

I'm not sure what he's talking about.
Only thing I can say is we don't call it Toxic City for nothing around here! Who knows what is in it.

Quoting 18. InsAdj:



Out of curiosity, what substance other than 'steam' is coming out of the steam stack?
21. SuzK
Excellent article, thank you.

"Nick Bond is already looking further ahead. “The big question, in my mind, is what happens after the upcoming winter,” Bond said in an email. “Will the weather/wind patterns favor a continuation of the warm ocean conditions, or will there be a switch back to patterns associated with cooler NE Pacific waters?"

I'm glad to see the question of what to expect next (in weather) being called out more often. This bumped-up warmth we are seeing in the North Pacific seems to indicate that it's possible we can't update our forecasting systems fast enough to anticipate what the weather may do next. El Nino (along with his sidekick Modoki) may continue to warm and strengthen for much longer than we are used to (or not). The atmosphere's on steroids, and there is no turning this Titanic. I sure enjoy watching the models try to keep up with it!

As a side note its getting harder and harder to ignore the cold blue blob growing south of Greenland, and what its effect on the Gulf Stream and European weather may portend. And hasn't the Mediterranean had its 3rd year in a row with tropical style storms and ravaging waterspouts and tornados.

I wonder how ramped up the weather will have to become before we are all on the same page about it?

Happy Golden Autumn from Drums PA
.
Blob and Rigde, the old couple, enjoying their last weeks together at the romantic coast of California ... So sad :-)

Thanks for the interesting update on this phenomenal marriage, Bob!
Local oak trees have produced a massive amount of acorns this year. In addition, hickory trees and black walnut trees have also dropped amazing quantities of nuts. We’re having a “mast year” with our forest trees producing abundant nuts. Folklore predicts a hard winter will follow a mast year.

I knew I wasn't going mad! my oak tree has been producing huge amount of acorns and its been this way since August.
Blobs and Ridges and Nino's OH MY!
Quoting 1. RitaEvac:

We think Man doesn't affect weather....




Looking towards Texas City, TX at the refineries from Galveston TX. This cloud is being created and sustained by the Cat 3 steam stack at Marathon Galveston Bay Refinery where you can see where the steam is going up at the base of the cloud. Man does have an impact on weather...whether you believe it....or not. On numerous mornings at this location I used to see clouds billowing up from this steam stack on drives into work. This pic was taken by someone else, I had to share this for the community.


It's well-known that industrial areas can create localized clouds.
Quoting 23. washingtonian115:

Local oak trees have produced a massive amount of acorns this year. In addition, hickory trees and black walnut trees have also dropped amazing quantities of nuts. We’re having a “mast year” with our forest trees producing abundant nuts. Folklore predicts a hard winter will follow a mast year.

I knew I wasn't going mad! my oak tree has been producing huge amount of acorns and its been this way since August.


So have the trees in my area. I'm going to grow and plant a lot of them :-)
Quoting 20. BrazoriaMan:

Only thing I can say is we don't call it Toxic City for nothing around here! Who knows what is in it.




I was being facetious. It's steam from a boiler.
Great read Mr. Henson.
We have wall to wall sunshine back again in Conway/Myrtle Beach, SC!!!! After about 20" at my house during the JQ firehose, we had an additional 2" on Saturday!!!! But I have seen a lot of water dry up in the last 4 days thanks to high pressure and cooler dry air. Waccamaw River has only dropped about 0.3 feet in 1.5 weeks due to regional lowcountry flooding beyond imagination!
good read thanks bob
amazing about the sunfish
another clue showing us the way
the size of it is that normal
Quoting 27. InsAdj:



I was being facetious. It's steam from a boiler.
I have 8 stacks on the roof in the dead of winter at full tilt they billow off lots of vapor colder the better
Interestingly Florida was not a part of the North American continental drift to where it is today, but was a late arrival
From another drifting part of our planet. Hundreds of thousands years ago, after it "attached" to North America, it was totally submerged under the Atlantic Ocean during the distant past.. So resubmerging once more, over time, will happen again.

But don't sell your seaside home yet!
Quoting 32. NSB207:

Interestingly Florida was not a part of the North American continental drift to where it is today, but was a late arrival
From another drifting part of our planet. Hundreds of thousands years ago, after it "attached" to North America, it was totally submerged under the Atlantic Ocean during the distant past.. So resubmerging once more, over time, will happen again.

But don't sell your seaside home yet!


Where are you getting this from, link it.
Quoting 32. NSB207:

Interestingly Florida was not a part of the North American continental drift to where it is today, but was a late arrival
From another drifting part of our planet. Hundreds of thousands years ago, after it "attached" to North America, it was totally submerged under the Atlantic Ocean during the distant past.. So resubmerging once more, over time, will happen again.

But don't sell your seaside home yet!


I'm in the middle of the state. I'm thinking of marketing my home now as "future" beachfront property. LOL!
Quoting 18. InsAdj:



Out of curiosity, what substance other than 'steam' is coming out of the steam stack?


No telling
Quoting 32. NSB207:

Interestingly Florida was not a part of the North American continental drift to where it is today, but was a late arrival
From another drifting part of our planet. Hundreds of thousands years ago, after it "attached" to North America, it was totally submerged under the Atlantic Ocean during the distant past.. So resubmerging once more, over time, will happen again.

But don't sell your seaside home yet!


Florida attached on this side of the Atlantic from the African continent; some of the coastal soil compositions in North Florida/South Georgia on the Atlantic coast match up perfectly with a coastal region in West Africa on the coast.....................The slow drift of Mid-Atlantic tectonic plates over millions of years.................Amazing stuff. 
Quoting 32. NSB207:

Interestingly Florida was not a part of the North American continental drift to where it is today, but was a late arrival
From another drifting part of our planet. Hundreds of thousands years ago, after it "attached" to North America, it was totally submerged under the Atlantic Ocean during the distant past.. So resubmerging once more, over time, will happen again.

But don't sell your seaside home yet!




Everything you need to know, lol.
Quoting 18. InsAdj:



Out of curiosity, what substance other than 'steam' is coming out of the steam stack?

Just by driving by them along the Texas coast the biggest thing is the smell of sulfur compounds, both dioxide and sulfide. Of course there's a lot of junk that you don't or can't. I found a laundry list of things and it really depends on what they are doing at the time.
Refinery Process Air Emissions
It's also worth noting that not all of the emissions come out of the stack. Much of it is outgassed at various points. They do try and recover as much as "economically feasible", but a lot gets away.
Quoting 7. weathermanwannabe:

Thank You Mr. Henson; as shown in your large-scale SST anomaly chart, the Pacific warm "blob" is almost located at the same latitudes as the "cold pool" off of Greenland in the North Atlantic which is believed by many to be a function of cooler waters from the melting Greenland glacial area.......................Anomalous Blobs a Plenty might continue popping up around the world in some surprising places in the coming decades.....................
Why will the Blobs be continuing, and no the cold area is not from melting icecaps or anything else concerning climate change.
Quoting 39. barbamz:



Everything you need to know, lol.


LOL!
Quoting 23. washingtonian115:

Local oak trees have produced a massive amount of acorns this year. In addition, hickory trees and black walnut trees have also dropped amazing quantities of nuts. We’re having a “mast year” with our forest trees producing abundant nuts. Folklore predicts a hard winter will follow a mast year.

I knew I wasn't going mad! my oak tree has been producing huge amount of acorns and its been this way since August.


Mine also. And a 90% drop in the squirrel population in my neighbourhood means they aren't getting eaten. Squirrels are returning now but it was eerie to see them gone (and to get peaches from my tree for the first year ever.. usually stolen by squirrels)

Evening and nighttime temperatures near the coast in central California (Sonoma County) have been significantly warmer than usual for this time of year (and in fact all last summer as well). I commute daily by bicycle to Santa Rosa, and it's been much balmier this year on my morning ride in than in years past. The amazingly high SST anomalies offshore are making a noticeable difference around here, as many in the greater San Francisco Bay Area are witnessing.
what are your thoughts on that front digging down into the gulf now making its way into the caribbean....with a TW moving west through the central carib and the obvious abundant surge in moisture one would think we might see something spin up...ofcourse the shear being so high as it has been most of the season that may inhibit things...
Quoting 26. FunnelVortex:



So have the trees in my area. I'm going to grow and plant a lot of them :-)


I would let the squirrels plant them. My water oaks and live oaks grow everywhere . I have 22 oaks on my property and I've only planted 2.
Quoting 43. georgevandenberghe:



Mine also. And a 90% drop in the squirrel population in my neighbourhood means they aren't getting eaten. Squirrels are returning now but it was eerie to see them gone (and to get peaches from my tree for the first year ever.. usually stolen by squirrels)

All the way down here on the ms coast the same thing is happening. Tons and tons of acorns. I have also noticed a decrease in squirrels however, I attribute this to my hound's vigilance more than anything else. Very little leaf color is showing. Normally by this time in October my neighbors popcorn tree is bright yellow. My buddy was just in Helen, GA over the weekend and said the color was just beginning which is great for us as we will be there for thanksgiving. I was expecting all the leaves to have dropped by then.
Bubble plumes off Washington, Oregon suggest warmer ocean may be releasing frozen methane
Date: October 14, 2015, Source: University of Washington
Summary: The location of bubble plumes off the Pacific Northwest supports the idea that gradual ocean warming at about a third of a mile down may be releasing frozen methane in the seafloor.
Quoting 44. RichWalker:

Evening and nighttime temperatures near the coast in central California (Sonoma County) have been significantly warmer than usual for this time of year (and in fact all last summer as well). I commute daily by bicycle to Santa Rosa, and it's been much balmier this year on my morning ride in than in years past. The amazingly high SST anomalies offshore are making a noticeable difference around here, as many in the greater San Francisco Bay Area are witnessing.

Ah, a first poster ... Welcome to the blog with your bicycle!
In comparison, here's the cold blob in the north Atlantic dug out of the wind map by looking up SSTA or sea surface temp anomalies.

Link
Quoting 23. washingtonian115:

Local oak trees have produced a massive amount of acorns this year. In addition, hickory trees and black walnut trees have also dropped amazing quantities of nuts. We’re having a “mast year” with our forest trees producing abundant nuts. Folklore predicts a hard winter will follow a mast year.

I knew I wasn't going mad! my oak tree has been producing huge amount of acorns and its been this way since August.
The black walnuts have been dropping a lot too.
This upcoming weekend is going to feel like mid-November, with highs in the 50s.
Quoting 48. barbamz:

Bubble plumes off Washington, Oregon suggest warmer ocean may be releasing frozen methane
Date: October 14, 2015, Source: University of Washington
Summary: The location of bubble plumes off the Pacific Northwest supports the idea that gradual ocean warming at about a third of a mile down may be releasing frozen methane in the seafloor.
it has been not only there but in the atlantic as well and even in the arctic during the warm ice free months methane is even being released in the tundra surface areas above sea level such as bogs and marshes and bog ponds and stuff

big question is how much and how fast is it occurring
how much faster it can occur as the feed back keeps increasing the release
be happy for winter at least it keeps a lot in check frozen under the snow and ice
till it builds up and explodes out and that's even starting to show signs of its beginnings

then we will be done for sure once large ocean methane eruptions starts to occur
that in turn increases the global temps even higher and faster
then every before
Quoting 52. Climate175:

This upcoming weekend is going to feel like mid-November, with highs in the 50s.
mid 50's are nice we wont see mid forties sat or sun with even snow flurries in the forecast for Friday night into sat morning before noon lows 28 to 30 fri sat and sun nights
Quoting 52. Climate175:

This upcoming weekend is going to feel like mid-November, with highs in the 50s.
I've ordered my coco's from Land o Lakes.The caramel and butterscotch flavors are delicious.I do enjoy mint and Irish creme with S'mores being one of the children favorite flavors.There is nothing like sitting by a window on a cold day and seeing leaves fall with a hot cup of coco or falling snow for that matter.
Quoting 41. NativeSun:

Why will the Blobs be continuing, and no the cold area is not from melting icecaps or anything else concerning climate change.


Well currently there is much debate and publication on if the cold blob is related to melting ice. A summary of the scientific debate can be found here. This is how science is done.
Quoting 56. washingtonian115:

I've ordered my coco's from Land o Lakes.The caramel and butterscotch flavors are delicious.I do enjoy mint and Irish creme with S'mores being one of the children favorite flavors.There is nothing like sitting by a window on a cold day and seeing leaves fall with a hot cup of coco or falling snow for that matter.
Yep, I will be going camping, so it will be nice to see fall in action, with falling leaves and chilly air.
Quoting 9. 69Viking:



Where are you located? Has to be along the Northern border with Canada or further North if you've been that cold already! I grew up in SE MN and I don't miss the long cold winters when temps don't go above freezing for months at a time!

I'm in Indiana. Saturday Oct 3rd, Bloomington IN was closest weather station. I sat in my stand and thought 'sure could use a deer to walk by'. Kept saying that for 3 hours of rain. Went back to camp, dried out. NWS says a low of 33 for Friday night. If that doesn't get them up and moving....gonna have to wait until Cupid calls.
Quoting 47. Sandcat:

"All the way down here on the ms coast the same thing is happening. Tons and tons of acorns. I have also noticed a decrease in squirrels however, I attribute this to my hound's vigilance more than anything else. Very little leaf color is showing. Normally by this time in October my neighbors popcorn tree is bright yellow. My buddy was just in Helen, GA over the weekend and said the color was just beginning which is great for us as we will be there for thanksgiving. I was expecting all the leaves to have dropped by then."

I would be surprised if the leaves hadn't already dropped in Helen by then. We've been in North Georgia most Thanksgivings for the last 25 years and except for the pines and the dead golden leaves on the beech trees, it's pretty bare.
Quoting 58. Climate175:

Yep, I will be going camping, so it will be nice to see fall in action, with falling leaves and chilly air.
frosty fall morning are the best right at sunrise

Quoting 58. Climate175:

Yep, I will be going camping, so it will be nice to see fall in action, with falling leaves and chilly air.



Maybe first fire in my woodstove this weekend. I have 1.5 cords. The tree I had to remove contributed half of that. I'll need another cord sometime this winter. I really miss that tree but it had some weak spots in its main branches and was a disaster waiting to fall on something or someone. The minivan already has a large roof dent from a previous smallish branch drop.
Quoting 39. barbamz:



Everything you need to know, lol.
ROFL LMAO thanks for the laugh Barbamz, this made my day, lol.
Quoting 60. ChillinInTheKeys:

Quoting 47. Sandcat:

"All the way down here on the ms coast the same thing is happening. Tons and tons of acorns. I have also noticed a decrease in squirrels however, I attribute this to my hound's vigilance more than anything else. Very little leaf color is showing. Normally by this time in October my neighbors popcorn tree is bright yellow. My buddy was just in Helen, GA over the weekend and said the color was just beginning which is great for us as we will be there for thanksgiving. I was expecting all the leaves to have dropped by then."

I would be surprised if the leaves hadn't already dropped in Helen by then. We've been in North Georgia most Thanksgivings for the last 25 years and except for the pines and the dead golden leaves on the beech trees, it's pretty bare.


Most years they are about 90% gone thanksgiving weekend here in DC. But that means cleanup has to be done the NEXT weekend or that 10% will mar the yard. Used to be I cleaned up thanksgiving weekend when i was a kid.
Quoting 19. washingtonian115:

Ryan Maue ‏@RyanMaue 1m1 minute ago
Last 48-runs of CFSv2 raw snowfall output for Washington DC.
30-32'' happy medium

I'm not sure what he's talking about.
I believe he is trying to say the last 48 runs of the CFS, showed an average of 30-32 inches of snow over the entire winter, I think.
Quoting 32. NSB207:

Interestingly Florida was not a part of the North American continental drift to where it is today, but was a late arrival
From another drifting part of our planet. Hundreds of thousands years ago, after it "attached" to North America, it was totally submerged under the Atlantic Ocean during the distant past.. So resubmerging once more, over time, will happen again.

But don't sell your seaside home yet!


Well, generally correct, but more like it arrived attached to Africa during the Paleozoic formation of Pangaea, and then stuck to North America when the Atlantic Ocean first rifted apart roughly 150 million years ago or so.
Quoting 64. georgevandenberghe:



Most years they are about 90% gone thanksgiving weekend here in DC. But that means cleanup has to be done the NEXT weekend or that 10% will mar the yard. Used to be I cleaned up thanksgiving weekend when i was a kid.

I expect to begin the raking in 1-2 weeks, we have not hit the peak of the color change, but more and more trees are beginning to change.
In case some of you are longing for the latest - weatherwise - from Europe: Yes, indeed it did snow very early in parts of Germany, although the white stuff stayed a bit north of my place mid Germany:


Video is from Westerwald.

More important is the severe weather on the southeastern side of this trough of cold air, caused by advected warm moist airmasses which turn into systems with very cold cloud tops and accordingly tremendous amounts of rain right now in parts of Italy and especially in the Balkans:


Saved current pic. Source for updates.


Source for updates.

Weather contrasts across Europe
BBC weather video, 14 October 2015 Last updated at 14:25
Freezing temperatures and snow for some whilst thunderstorms batter central Mediterranean areas. Ben Rich has the details.


Map with accumulated precipitation until tomorrow.

Some more here (Meteo Europe).
There has been some research on the cold pool off of Greenland suggesting it may be related to the melting Greenland icecaps/glaciers and some of that research suggests that it may cause a slow-down of the Gulf Stream current as it flows (or tries to flow) across that region on the way to Northern Europe over time. Too soon to know how the research will pan out but I would also note (SST anomaly map posted above in the Blog Post) that you can also notice a "warm" anomaly off the coast of NE Conus where the Gulf Stream is located off the coast there.

Last Winter, we had some record snowfall in Boston and surrounding areas and many Mets noted that same anomaly and noted how the warmer temps off the coast contributed to a coastal "snow effect" as some of the Winter storms pushed off the NE into the Atlantic due to the baroclinic factors at play with the unusually warm Gulf Stream there in the dead of Winter.

I am no scientist but just noting that the warm anomaly from last year off New England is present again this year and some of the papers, on the denser aspects of the colder water, have suggested the possibility of a "piling up" effect on the warmer Stream waters trying to flow to the North....................................Just noting what I see on the SST chart going into this Winter. Now we have to see if we have back to back coastal New England record snow fall again this year due to this related issue of the right storm or blizzard trajectory come along come the Winter storm season.
Whoever wins between the Blob vs. El Nino gets to face La Nina next year.
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #17
Storm Warning
TROPICAL STORM CHAMPI (1525)
3:00 AM JST October 15 2015
==============================
In Minamitori-shima Waters

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Storm Champi (998 hPa) located at 15.0N 153.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 60 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 12 knots.

Gale Force Winds
==========
240 NM from the center in northwestern quadrant
150 NM from the center in southeastern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Forecast and Intensity
================
24 HRS: 16.2N 149.1E - 50 knots (Severe Tropical Storm/CAT 2) Mariana Islands
48 HRS: 17.8N 144.4E - 60 knots (Severe Tropical Storm/CAT 2) Mariana Islands
72 HRS: 19.9N 141.1E - 65 knots (Strong Typhoon/CAT 3) Mariana Islands

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #17
Storm Warning
TROPICAL STORM KOPPU (1524)
3:00 AM JST October 15 2015
==============================
In Sea East Of The Philippines

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Storm Koppu (998 hPa) located at 15.2N 132.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 9 knots.

Gale Force Winds
===========
210 NM from the center in southwestern quadrant
150 NM from the center in northeastern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Forecast and Intensity
================
24 HRS: 16.2N 128.1E - 50 knots (Severe Tropical Storm/CAT 2) Sea East Of The Philippines
48 HRS: 16.6N 125.2E - 65 knots (Strong Typhoon/CAT 3) Sea East Of The Philippines
72 HRS: 16.9N 122.8E - 85 knots (Very Strong Typhoon/CAT 4) Sea East Of The Philippines
Quoting 59. MonsterTrough:


I'm in Indiana. Saturday Oct 3rd, Bloomington IN was closest weather station. I sat in my stand and thought 'sure could use a deer to walk by'. Kept saying that for 3 hours of rain. Went back to camp, dried out. NWS says a low of 33 for Friday night. If that doesn't get them up and moving....gonna have to wait until Cupid calls.

Here's a couple for you I spotted in upstate New York in June.

Quoting 66. schistkicker:



Well, generally correct, but more like it arrived attached to Africa during the Paleozoic formation of Pangaea, and then stuck to North America when the Atlantic Ocean first rifted apart roughly 150 million years ago or so.
Howdy.S.K..And there have been several collisions on the East Coast..That is why the Appalachian Mountain range is considered one of the oldest on the planet...I should mention that the fossil record on the Cumberland Plateau is amazing, and still has slight smell of the sea that once existed there. Rock Island State Park is one of the most unique places I have ever seen, where hundreds of millions of years worth of layering is at your fingertips. It is neat touching something that is 450 million years old...:)



Quoting 13. csmda:

The weather has been beautiful here! I can't wait till it cools down another 10 degrees.


man... 1969? hell, we were just barely out of 8 tracks, much less intertubin..


13. csmda
2:42 PM EDT on October 14, 2015
1
+
The weather has been beautiful here! I can't wait till it cools down another 10 degrees.
Action: Quote | Ignore User
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: 0 Comments: 167
Wow. That video El Nino v Blob! Best chuckle I've had all day and it actually does a really good job at getting some technical stuff across. Good Job!
Quoting 72. PlazaRed:


Here's a couple for you I spotted in upstate New York in June.




looks kinda ribbie need more meat on the bones never ate deer before never hunted it

moose caribou seal (flippers) rabbit grouse partridge that's it and all the fish of the sea in the north atlantic grand banks north
Quoting 74. Gearsts:


I sure hope that's not the deal. Sort of. Somewhat. If it's a baby system I'd love some rain but I've switched gears to fall thinking. I'd hate to have to pick up all our Halloween crap.
I really believe the W/U people have a license on the word (THe Blob) it has been used for 10 years or more prior to this mans blog.
Awesome! We need more mass transit (energy efficient) in the Tampa Bay area, I hope they go back to re-thinking the idea of a high speed train between Tampa and Orlando and a Light Rail system in the Tampa Bay area, especially considering the population continues to expand and congestion continues to be a problem along the roads and highways. It will also bring in more jobs to the area too. :)

St. Petersburg mayor has ideas for BP settlement funds

ST. PETERSBURG --
The city of St. Petersburg is set to receive its share of settlement money from the BP Deepwater Horizon oil spill, and Mayor Rick Kriseman already has an idea of what he'd like to do with those funds.

Kriseman revealed Wednesday how he hopes the city will spend its share of a $21 billion settlement between oil giant BP and five gulf states, including Florida.

Kriseman sent a memo to the City Council, outlining his spending suggestions for the estimated $6.5 million the city will receive from the BP Deepwater Horizon oil spill settlement.

Kriseman's suggestions include setting aside $1 million to establish a bike share program in the city and using $1.2 million for infrastructure repairs to make the city more energy efficient, environmentally friendly and better prepared for natural disasters.

Kriseman also hopes to put $350,000 toward a private commuter ferry that would cross Tampa Bay.

Council members will offer their plans for the money at a meeting Thursday.
Quoting 80. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Awesome! We need more mass transit (energy efficient) in the Tampa Bay area, I hope they go back to re-thinking the idea of a high speed train between Tampa and Orlando and a Light Rail system in the Tampa Bay area, especially considering the population continues to expand and congestion continues to be a problem along the roads and highways. It will also bring in more jobs to the area too. :)

St. Petersburg mayor has ideas for BP settlement funds

ST. PETERSBURG --
The city of St. Petersburg is set to receive its share of settlement money from the BP Deepwater Horizon oil spill, and Mayor Rick Kriseman already has an idea of what he'd like to do with those funds.

Kriseman revealed Wednesday how he hopes the city will spend its share of a $21 billion settlement between oil giant BP and five gulf states, including Florida.

Kriseman sent a memo to the City Council, outlining his spending suggestions for the estimated $6.5 million the city will receive from the BP Deepwater Horizon oil spill settlement.

Kriseman's suggestions include setting aside $1 million to establish a bike share program in the city and using $1.2 million for infrastructure repairs to make the city more energy efficient, environmentally friendly and better prepared for natural disasters.

Kriseman also hopes to put $350,000 toward a private commuter ferry that would cross Tampa Bay.

Council members will offer their plans for the money at a meeting Thursday.
we all know here in FL the money will go to fund a new stadium, tax breaks for some huge company to locate here, pay the governors legal fees, give tax breaks to developers to build more condos on barrier islands, anything but sensible spending.


Florida's tornado deaths remain oddly high considering none of Florida's worst tornado events have occurred in the last 10 years.
83. vis0
What!? where!? were my first reactions thinking it was a Grothar blob watch.
Bob ya turned me into Emily Litella.
Gonna read Mr. Henson's blog now after i calmed down.
Quoting 56. washingtonian115:

I've ordered my coco's from Land o Lakes.The caramel and butterscotch flavors are delicious.I do enjoy mint and Irish creme with S'mores being one of the children favorite flavors.There is nothing like sitting by a window on a cold day and seeing leaves fall with a hot cup of coco or falling snow for that matter.


We've actually not had any real big wind storms all through Sept and Oct so far, so actually have fall looking foliage! Annoying bit, is I've hardly been able to try and get any good photos LOL I've started a uni BA degree in photography, and have been so wrapped up in that. Have tried to get a few here and there, but am running out of time! I need one day this week where I just put the uni projects totally out of my head LOL But even without photos, it's been so nice driving and it actually looking like a proper autumn, been so long with the last many years being so stormy through Sept and Oct!

Otherwise, hope you're good Washi!
Quoting 83. vis0:

What!? where!? were my first reactions thinking it was a Grothar blob watch.
Bob ya turned me into Emily Litella.
Gonna read Mr. Henson's blog now after i calmed down.



I know right? Stealing Grothars lingo. The dude probably took it right off here too :P
86. vis0

Quoting 23. washingtonian115:

Local oak trees have produced a massive amount of acorns this year. In addition, hickory trees and black walnut trees have also dropped amazing quantities of nuts. We’re having a “mast year” with our forest trees producing abundant nuts. Folklore predicts a hard winter will follow a mast year.

I knew I wasn't going mad! my oak tree has been producing huge amount of acorns and its been this way since August.
Not sure if its the artificial-Warming but over the past few yrs (mainly from viewing slow cam images over the webnet) it appears that many areas now go through 2 foliage colour changes (Northern Hemisphere)  .
- In mid August leaves turn yellowish or at best loose their rich green hues...from being too warm???

- Then in September as it cools trees seem to go "ahhhhhhhhhhh fresh not as warm winds" and re-Green for a few weeks, then turn yellow-orangery-red...ahhh candy corn
87. vis0

Quoting 62. georgevandenberghe:




Maybe first fire in my woodstove this weekend. I have 1.5 cords. The tree I had to remove contributed half of that. I'll need another cord sometime this winter. I really miss that tree but it had some weak spots in its main branches and was a disaster waiting to fall on something or someone. The minivan already has a large roof dent from a previous smallish branch drop.
i hear Grothar has some spare wood, though some might have nails in them... ¿What plywood don't burn well, weird when i lived in The BronX, ny in the 1960s it seemed to burn mighty strong.

WEATHER :: On TOPIC::

Which effect will have a greater affect on this warm blob, La Nina or the Pacific Decadal Oscillation IF THEY BOTH ARE AT THE SAME GRADED STRENGTH...i expect a cartoon of a tug-o-war (no, not mud wrastling dakster) on La Nina  vs.  the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, by the good folks at Southern California Public Radio (KPCC)

Gotta check this El Nino v The Blob "Seven Seas Thrilla".has gone 4 or 5  rounds i think it goes 2 more rounds

moving east.
89. vis0

Quoting 73. hydrus:

Howdy.S.K..And there have been several collisions on the East Coast..That is why the Appalachian Mountain range is considered one of the oldest on the planet...I should mention that the fossil record on the Cumberland Plateau is amazing, and still has slight smell of the sea that once existed there. Rock Island State Park is one of the most unique places I have ever seen, where hundreds of millions of years worth of layering is at your fingertips. It is neat touching something that is 450 million years old...:)




you met grothar??????
Quoting 82. Jedkins01:



Florida's tornado deaths remain oddly high considering none of Florida's worst tornado events have occurred in the last 10 years.



Feb 02, 2007. 13 deaths in Lake County. All in mobile homes
:(

Storm Events Database
8 more here...same date & county.

Storm Events Database
Quoting 80. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Awesome! We need more mass transit (energy efficient) in the Tampa Bay area, I hope they go back to re-thinking the idea of a high speed train between Tampa and Orlando and a Light Rail system in the Tampa Bay area, especially considering the population continues to expand and congestion continues to be a problem along the roads and highways. It will also bring in more jobs to the area too. :)

St. Petersburg mayor has ideas for BP settlement funds

ST. PETERSBURG --
The city of St. Petersburg is set to receive its share of settlement money from the BP Deepwater Horizon oil spill, and Mayor Rick Kriseman already has an idea of what he'd like to do with those funds.

Kriseman revealed Wednesday how he hopes the city will spend its share of a $21 billion settlement between oil giant BP and five gulf states, including Florida.

Kriseman sent a memo to the City Council, outlining his spending suggestions for the estimated $6.5 million the city will receive from the BP Deepwater Horizon oil spill settlement.

Kriseman's suggestions include setting aside $1 million to establish a bike share program in the city and using $1.2 million for infrastructure repairs to make the city more energy efficient, environmentally friendly and better prepared for natural disasters.

Kriseman also hopes to put $350,000 toward a private commuter ferry that would cross Tampa Bay.

Council members will offer their plans for the money at a meeting Thursday.
Nothing big is happening in Florida under the present governor, unless it's something that helps Florida corporations. We'll have to wait until the next governor, from either party, to see anything big that helps the Florida citizens. In the meantime, the citizens have to settle for table scraps like a $10 reduction in auto registration fees.
Quoting 88. chrisdscane:


moving east.


Doesn't seem too far fetched at all. If this makes the Gulf and shear is in the conducive range then we may get a spin up. At least two more days of lacking convection as this fetch moves NW through high shear.
Quoting 89. vis0:


you met grothar??????

No, but he say that the Earth itself was in its formative stage around the time he retired.
Daniel Swain ‏@Weather_West
CFS forecasting N. Pacific pattern very similar to those during wettest California winters.
Quoting 82. Jedkins01:



Florida's tornado deaths remain oddly high considering none of Florida's worst tornado events have occurred in the last 10 years.

Do waterspouts sink people in boats in FL? Florida probably has more boaters than any other state and has lots of waterspouts but never heard of a waterspout sinking a boat there and drowning them.
Keep making fun of my blobs and I'll turn off the weather. :P
Goodness!

Clearly two different blob's in discussion here. Blog discussion blob has been around for two years now. The Gro Blob should clearly be in every meteorology text book as a great teaching lesson on persisting convection and the birthing ground of invests.
100. vis0
a punch to the gut of the Blob by El Nino's Uncle Don Jetty.

Looks like it crosses Central to North Central Florida. Watch, wait and see.
Quoting 98. TheBigBanana:

Goodness!


TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT WED OCT 14 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located about 950 miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the
Baja California peninsula have increased and become better
organized. Environmental conditions are conducive for additional
development, and a tropical depression is expected to form
tonight or on Thursday while this system moves westward at
10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

2. An area of low pressure is expected to form a few hundred miles
south-southeast of the Gulf of Tehuantepec this weekend. Gradual
development of this system is possible early next week while it
moves slowly northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

Quoting 94. hydrus:

No, but he say that the Earth itself was in its formative stage around the time he retired.

I understand Grothar was first to refer to the predecessor to the Big Bang as a blob.
Yeah hurricanewatcher61 it shows a boatload of rain for N Florida. I think it does.

Hey, what does the key on the right represent? The total rainfall over 12 hours in mm or the average rainfall per hour?



105. beell
Quoting 96. TheBigBanana:

Do waterspouts sink people in boats in FL? Florida probably has more boaters than any other state and has lots of waterspouts but never heard of a waterspout sinking a boat there and drowning them.


and then, there's Carl...

I believe mm per hour.
Quoting 104. TheBigBanana:

Yeah hurricanewatcher61 it shows a boatload of rain for N Florida. I think it does.

Hey, what does the key on the right represent? The total rainfall over 12 hours in mm or the average rainfall per hour?




Friday night into Saturday may see an AOI and yellow crayon broken out as this disturbance gets closer to the Gulf and begins to emerge from the high shear. Could see a real nice Saturday blob and a fairly rapid increase in crayon colors through the weekend and early next week. See if anything is left to do so with the shear machine doing it's thing.
Could get interesting.
Quoting 107. DeepSeaRising:

Friday night into Saturday may see an AOI and yellow crayon broken out as this disturbance gets closer to the Gulf and begins to emerge from the high shear. Could see a real nice Saturday blob and a fairly rapid increase in crayon colors through the weekend and early next week. See if anything is left to do so with the shear machine doing it's thing.
Quoting 103. oldnewmex:


I understand Grothar was first to refer to the predecessor to the Big Bang as a blob.
yep....I think also...Everything from nothing....Victory over mass......Existence beyond physical laws...Time was already in the " Bang " before it went bang...I believe now that time is a sentient measure and universally speaking doesnt exist.
Quoting 104. TheBigBanana:

Yeah hurricanewatcher61 it shows a boatload of rain for N Florida. I think it does.

Hey, what does the key on the right represent? The total rainfall over 12 hours in mm or the average rainfall per hour?





Ignore what I wrote below. It's actually rate per hour over `12 hours in millimeters. I'm such a dope sometimes. :-)

It shows a guess at the amount of rain over 12 hours in millimeters. Since I'm color blind, I'm guessing the maximum I see for Florida is about 15 mm. That's about 0.60" over 12 hours. Slightly less than a boatload. :-)
Quoting 105. beell:



and then, there's Carl...


I think I used to date him...
Quoting 110. sar2401:

It shows a guess at the amount of rain over 12 hours in millimeters. Since I'm color blind, I'm guessing the maximum I see for Florida is about 15 mm. That's about 0.60" over 12 hours. Slightly less than a boatload. :-)
those charts are never accurate, I believe they had Hurricane Isaac in 2012 at .60 inches per hour.
I think it's average rainfall per hour--120 mm is almost 5" which is reasonable for a tropical storm in 12 hours.
114. beell
Quoting 111. aquak9:

I think I used to date him...


bless his heart...
:)
Quoting 107. DeepSeaRising:

Friday night into Saturday may see an AOI and yellow crayon broken out as this disturbance gets closer to the Gulf and begins to emerge from the high shear. Could see a real nice Saturday blob and a fairly rapid increase in crayon colors through the weekend and early next week. See if anything is left to do so with the shear machine doing it's thing.
I rather doubt we'll see any yellow X's by Saturday. The GFS is showing a low cross from the Pacific to the BOC. That would be the AOI currently forecast to form in the Gulf of Tehuantepec sometime this weekend. At least from reading the tropical weather discussion, the NHC isn't putting any stock in the models at this time. Assuming this unusual event really happens, even the GFS, which is the most progressive, doesn't show the low giving indications of a cross basin move until next Wednesday. The ECMWF seems to show a low forming in the BOC next Friday but apparently not as a Pacific crosser. The CMC's solution is just too preposterous to even discuss right now. My guess is something is going to develop in the BOC off the broad trough that will be in place but it's not going to happen until much later next week. What kind of low and where it goes is for guessers better than me.
Quoting 109. hydrus:

yep....I think also...Everything from nothing....Victory over mass......Existence beyond physical laws...Time was already in the " Bang " before it went bang...I believe now that time is a sentient measure and universally speaking doesnt exist.


"It's all relative."

Einstein
Quoting 111. aquak9:

I think I used to date him...
Seems as if Carl's spelling abilities aren't any better than his risk avoidance tendencies either. At least we all know to steer clear of Carl if he invites us for an afternoon of fishing.
Quoting 112. Camerooski:

those charts are never accurate, I believe they had Hurricane Isaac in 2012 at .60 inches per hour.
Especially at 264 hours. :-)
Quoting 109. hydrus:

yep....I think also...Everything from nothing....Victory over mass......Existence beyond physical laws...Time was already in the " Bang " before it went bang...I believe now that time is a sentient measure and universally speaking doesnt exist.
Did you swallow vis0 whole or did you cut him up before you dined?
Quoting 117. sar2401:

Seems as if Carl's spelling abilities aren't any better than his risk avoidance tendencies either. At least we all know to steer clear of Carl if he invites us for an afternoon of fishing.
:

Especially at 264 hours. :-)

BUNDLEMANIA!! (special thanks to Frank from American Pickers for helping me find new and terrible ways to confuse people with grammatical grouping)
121. OCF
About the NE Pacific warm water - the subject of Dr. Henson's post:

California gets most of its precipitation in the winter, from extratropical storm systems. Generally speaking the wetter events pull moisture from a long way away, far to the south. I'm looking at the middle blob, the anomalously warm water offshore of Southern California and Baja.

So what will happen when a reasonably vigorous winter-type storm approaches Southern California this year? Will it gain extra moisture from the nearby waters and be wetter than it otherwise would have been? Will such a storm be any stronger than it otherwise would have been?

We actually have a "storm", such as it is, over us now - our second time around wandering ULL. Just not sure it counts as "reasonably vigorous." I do see some cumulus development over the mountains, and who knows, maybe we'll even get something here tomorrow, although I'm not holding my breath. Still uncomfortably humid here.
Quoting 90. beell:



Feb 02, 2007. 13 deaths in Lake County. All in mobile homes
:(

Storm Events Database
One of two deadly tornadoes recorded on Groundhog Day 2007, this EF3 touched down at 3:10 a.m. in Sumter and Lake counties, killing eight and injuring 25. I think that's a total 21 deaths, which would explain the 23 total for Florida. Alabama leads the nation in tornado deaths thanks partially to the Super Outbreak of 2011, as well as the whole mobile home problem. Alabama also takes the prize for the most F5 tornadoes since 1966 at 8. If you really want to be a tornado chaser, move to Cullman County Alabama. There have been 65 tornadoes touch down in Cullman since 1950, which works out to exactly one per year on average. By comparison, Barbour County, where I live, has been hit by 17 tornadoes since 1950, none bigger than an F/EF2. That, plus the right woman, is why I moved here. :-)
Quoting 90. beell:



Feb 02, 2007. 13 deaths in Lake County. All in mobile homes
:(

Storm Events Database


It's actually amazing to see the old mobile homes still around here in Orlando. The city has grown up around them, office buildings, shopping plazas, and in between you will see a heavily obscured road, not well maintained and just the hint of old Florida.
Quoting 119. GreyJewel:

Did you swallow vis0 whole or did you cut him up before you dined?
Not unless he's a fish or a whole bunch of veggies...Judging by his comments he is neither.
Quoting 120. aquak9:


BUNDLEMANIA!! (special thanks to Frank from American Pickers for helping me find new and terrible ways to confuse people with grammatical grouping)
Bless your heart...:-)
Quoting 123. Naga5000:



It's actually amazing to see the old mobile homes still around here in Orlando. The city has grown up around them, office buildings, shopping plazas, and in between you will see a heavily obscured road, not well maintained and just the hint of old Florida.
I wish that were true in Alabama. We have extensive areas that are all mobile homes, many older, and many with no attempt to tie them to a foundation or the ground. They tend to be out in the country, far from any kind of storm shelter. That's one of the reasons why tornadoes are so deadly here. It's all tied to poverty, and that's not easily solved.
An update on the weather here in Glenwood Springs and these general parts;
This is, without a doubt, the latest I have ever seen the fall foliage change,
the weather has been about the most perfect I've seen in a long, long, time
Spring here is almost non-existant, flipping from Winter to Summer in the space of just a few days
(normally going from 50's to 90's within a week)

Fall is generally a much nicer season here(I generally hide out most of the summer, too hot for my tastes, regardless of location.
This year, I've seen a Peak Foliage in Aspen and Snowmass just this week (the aspens dropped off a bit early (August) due to a fungal infection, very wet summer) this is a full month later than usual (mid September)
As for my own home, the Oak in my back yard hasn't even shown a hint of change yet. I'm still waiting for a first frost here, a month late.
daytime temps are still running in the upper 70's to 80

After last winter, the number of Texas and California plated vehicles on the road here have tripled from last season (the abundant, but not too much water?) I get the feeling that we (locals) have been invaded by those escaping the droughts (and floods) as well as traffic on a local state highway, that, 20 years ago was a 2 lane, now a 4 lane, and now is considering replacing stoplights with freeway exits. Can't blame them too much, considering I escaped New England a few decades back (more snow here, but much easier to drive on)

Aside from a few cold spells several years back (down towards Alamosa a few years back, at -40+ about 3 years ago) the weather here has become milder and milder, with hardly a serious cold spell in years.

People gravitate to places of transition, Along the coast, Sea and Land, in the mountains, Land and Sky.  Myself, I have a bit of both, living right on a river, in a place where Land meets Sky.  Some of the local places of natural beauty have become overrun with people, trashing the landscape.

As the coasts become less habitable, I have already seen a major migration to the mountains, cooler (but not too cold lately)

I get the feeling that, as the general climate changes, people will gravitate towards places with a more gentle climate when they can.  Does this mean that all sorts of things, like the citification of formerly open spaces, traffic going to extremes, etc is in store for me with these changes in climate?
Quoting 113. TheBigBanana:

I think it's average rainfall per hour--120 mm is almost 5" which is reasonable for a tropical storm in 12 hours.
You're right, it's per hour over 12 hours. That chart has always confused me. It's actually closer to seven inches over 12 hours in whatever that darkest color region is. All this is assuming the GFS is actually right at 11 days out.
Quoting 126. sar2401:

I wish that were true in Alabama. We have extensive areas that are all mobile homes, many older, and many with no attempt to tie them to a foundation or the ground. They tend to be out in the country, far from any kind of storm shelter. That's one of the reasons why tornadoes are so deadly here. It's all tied to poverty, and that's not easily solved.


We certainly still have the more rural ones as well. But even the ones I described are old and decaying, and home to the poverty stricken. Soon they will be gone and the land will be redeveloped. I am very surprised they have hung on this long.
Quoting 129. Naga5000:



We certainly still have the more rural ones as well. But even the ones I described are old and decaying, and home to the poverty stricken. Soon they will be gone and the land will be redeveloped. I am very surprised they have hung on this long.
Maybe it's zoning, or the lack thereof. We've only had zoning in town for about 15 years, and the county is still completely unzoned. There are some nice plots of land to build a home out there, but you run the risk of a pig farm being built next to you, and there's nothing you can do about it. That's one of the reasons we don't have the typical suburban type developments. I'll bet those mobile home holdouts are in some kind of zoning limbo.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192015
800 PM PDT WED OCT 14 2015

Satellite images indicate that the low pressure system located about
1000 miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula has become better organized. The cloud pattern
consists of a large curved band on its western side and a central
dense overcast feature. In addition, a partial ASCAT pass from
earlier today suggested that the center of circulation has become
better defined. On this basis, this system is classified as a
tropical depression, the nineteenth one of the 2015 eastern North
Pacific season. The initial wind speed is set at 30 kt, following
a Dvorak intensity estimate from TAFB and the earlier ASCAT data.

The depression is moving just south of due west at about 16 kt
steered by a subtropical ridge to its north. A general westward
motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected during the next
few days while the ridge remains in place but weakens. After that
time, a turn to the northwest is predicted as the cyclone moves
toward a weakness in the ridge caused by a mid- to upper-level
trough. The model guidance is in fair agreement, and the official
track forecast lies near the consensus aids.

Low wind shear, warm water, and a fairly moist environment should
allow the system to strengthen during the next several days. The
SHIPS and LGEM models show significant strengthening, bringing the
system to hurricane strength within 48 hours with continued
intensification thereafter. The official forecast is less
aggressive than those models, but still does call for the depression
to strengthen steadily for the next few days. This forecast is
between the dynamical and statistical guidance, and a little lower
than the intensity model consensus. It is interesting to note that
the GFS and ECMWF models also show the system deepening
significantly toward the end of the forecast period.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/0300Z 9.9N 117.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 15/1200Z 9.7N 120.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 16/0000Z 9.5N 122.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 16/1200Z 9.5N 124.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 17/0000Z 9.6N 126.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 18/0000Z 10.0N 130.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 19/0000Z 11.4N 132.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 20/0000Z 13.5N 135.0W 85 KT 100 MPH



we now have TD 19-E the E PAC has yet too have a cat 5 hurricane will 19-E be that storm it sure would not be a strong EL Nino with out a CAT 5 in the E PAC
132. 7544
Quoting 101. hurricanewatcher61:

Looks like it crosses Central to North Central Florida. Watch, wait and see.


yep and look here mabe a one two punch for fl one from the east one from the west? hmmm

Link
Quoting 23. washingtonian115:

Local oak trees have produced a massive amount of acorns this year. In addition, hickory trees and black walnut trees have also dropped amazing quantities of nuts. We’re having a “mast year” with our forest trees producing abundant nuts. Folklore predicts a hard winter will follow a mast year.

I knew I wasn't going mad! my oak tree has been producing huge amount of acorns and its been this way since August.
Kinda nutty!!
Sanibel. 10-14-15


photo by Patrick Bailey
GFS at 252 hours has what looks like a subtropical storm..Keeps pushing it back, and at 10 and a half days isnt worth anything..I still like to post the weird ones.

Quoting 134. Abacosurf:

Sanibel. 10-14-15


photo by Patrick Bailey
Hmmmm. I wonder if the bailey that snapped that photo is a relative from the Baileys Market and Grocery on the island..Spoke to Mr. Bailey quite a bit when we lived out there. He would be almost 100 years old if still living.
Quoting 133. Abacosurf:

Kinda nutty!!
init polar vortex


lol
nice system in nw
barrier flow off conus/can
stopping anything from entering off the atlantic
with a n by ne flow from nw carb ne ward then n to Greenland

Quoting 44. RichWalker:

Evening and nighttime temperatures near the coast in central California (Sonoma County) have been significantly warmer than usual for this time of year (and in fact all last summer as well). I commute daily by bicycle to Santa Rosa, and it's been much balmier this year on my morning ride in than in years past. The amazingly high SST anomalies offshore are making a noticeable difference around here, as many in the greater San Francisco Bay Area are witnessing.
Hi Rich, and welcome aboard. I escaped from Petaluma 10 years ago and now live in SE AL. The only thing I miss is the climate. It was always in the 50's overnight regardless of how hot it got. I lived in Petaluma for about 30 years and I think I remember two or three times when the overnight was even in the high 60's, let alone 70's. Something has changed, no doubt about that. If you live in a flood zone, start preparing for winter though. The drought will be a forgotten item by February.
Quoting 132. 7544:



yep and look here mabe a one two punch for fl one from the east one from the west? hmmm

Link
That storm to the east of Florida forms on the broad trough that exists from the Atlantic all the way across Central America. It's not headed for Florida. As for the rest, it's the loopy CMC at 10 days out. If all the hurricanes predicted by it this year happened, Florida would be a desolate landscape.
EPac tropical depression 19-E which both the GFS and the Euro have ramping up to a major hurricane over the next few days.
Where I am by the bay it's currently 64 with 61 dewpoint, heavy fog and just before sunset, castellated altocumulus approaching from the SE in the flow around our re-visiting upper level low. Offshore buoys all the way up to Bodega Bay are in the 60s, with SF Bay itself near 70 F. When the low latitude El Nino jet gets busy, there will be a whole lot of heat and moisture to tap, even right along the coast.
Not often you see the whites, blacks, and even greys (which is approaching -100*C) on rainbow.

Quoting 96. TheBigBanana:

Do waterspouts sink people in boats in FL? Florida probably has more boaters than any other state and has lots of waterspouts but never heard of a waterspout sinking a boat there and drowning them.
Don't know if it was mentioned, one tore open a mail truck trailer late last week on a causeway near Tampa. Depends on the size of the boat and if it has a sail, I wager.
145. vis0
Quoting 124. hydrus:

Not unless he's a fish or a whole bunch of veggies...Judging by his comments he is neither.
The BIG burrrrrrrrrrrPPPPPPPP!

WEATHER:: As to cmmnt 121.OCF 1:52 AM GMT on October 15, 20

lets see if the jet streak i highlighted in this 3frame gif (few hrs old) adds a bit of a pop to that ULL off Ca.
Quoting 126. sar2401:

I wish that were true in Alabama. We have extensive areas that are all mobile homes, many older, and many with no attempt to tie them to a foundation or the ground. They tend to be out in the country, far from any kind of storm shelter. That's one of the reasons why tornadoes are so deadly here. It's all tied to poverty, and that's not easily solved.


That's part of it, but Alabama also is indeed a hot spot for violent tornadoes that rivals anywhere in the plains, and the state has a lot of forest. In addition to that, not nearly as many people have under ground shelters or above ground ones. Tornado shelters are truly necessary when it comes to strong tornadoes. If you analyze the path width of tornadoes, even the longest tracked and widest tornadoes impact only several hundred people at the most.

If you take the number of people actually present in their homes that are above ground when strong tornadoes hit, the net result is pretty low amount of people exposed per strong tornado. That means the odds of making it through an EF4 tornado above ground without an above ground safe room without injury or death is not as high as we'd wish it was.

Quoting 98. TheBigBanana:

Goodness!



The time frame on these systems keeps moving out past 8-10 days. This can certainly happen this time year, but judging by how the tropical Atlantic has been recently, I seriously doubt it will. We can't even get a system forecast in the 3-7 day time frame (for more than a run or two on one of the whacky models).
The weather here continues to be mild at night, warm and sunny by day, fairly humid and DRY.
Libration of the moon

Quoting 109. hydrus:

yep....I think also...Everything from nothing....Victory over mass......Existence beyond physical laws...Time was already in the " Bang " before it went bang...I believe now that time is a sentient measure and universally speaking doesnt exist.


Well time does exist since the dimension can change as it's tied to mass and acceleration as I'm sure you're aware.
Though I suppose that maybe time could be interpreted as some other parameter. That is, what we know to be time is change in the universe, a way of quantifying velocity multiplied by distance. So, I suppose that time could be perceived not as a way of making order in human life, such as using dates and such, if we didn't use it, and perceived only as a quantity in physics that relates to distance and speed.


But, it makes sense why the brain is hard wired to perceive time the way it does. It defines and makes at least some order possible in our world of change. Could you imagine interpreting time differently, or interpreting say a garbage dump a beautiful sight while thinking a tiger or the Grand Canyon to be ugly? Human interpretation may not always be accurate, but it defines who we are.
This concept of human interpretation of reality certainly provokes major philosophical and religious questions as well. Though this really isn't the place to go down the rabbit hole, as much as I like discussing such things.


Anyways, in the end, time is sort of a way of explaining why death, evolution ,and entropy exist. The only way I could imagine a world without any of those 3 things, would be a timeless one. Which sounds beautiful, but for a human, how can we imagine what a timeless world is really like? Imagine traveling, but not using time as a measurement.
Quoting 90. beell:



Feb 02, 2007. 13 deaths in Lake County. All in mobile homes
:(

Storm Events Database


You're right, I forgot about that tornado event. The whole tornado outbreak as the page shows killed 21 and injured 103. I do remember that event quite well. It too was during an El Nino winter. I just forgot it occurred during the past 10 years. Seems that Florida tends to get a major killer tornado day at least once a decade, and usually the state isn't ready for it.

I remember the NWS discussion out of Melbourne and Ruskin was quite scary. They mentioned that there was dangerously high vertical shear beneath strong instability and upper support from a vigorous short wave, not something that happens too often in Florida.
Oh hai GFS. Please be true.



It's a fall flavor so it's on topic! From Chemical & Engineering News:

Pumpkin Spice Flavor: Popular lattes and treats contain no pumpkin, but boast plenty of food chemistry





Is Cinnamaldehyde a cross between cinnamon and formaldehyde? Enjoy your tasty Zingiberene everyone!
We gotta help this planet haha. Doesn't mean we have to save it like super man all at once but we can make a positive difference and that's the best we can do EVERY day. Every day is an opportunity. Just like it was when Michael Jordan was playing. He was a baller and so can we every day. We just gotta believe we are great more often and we will go a long way to bringing greater prosperity to all life on this planet and the Ocean Sunfish. Thanks Dr Jeff and Bob!!
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/ 2015101500/gfs_mslp_uv850_us_21.png

batten down the hatches S.Fl.
Quoting 153. BaltimoreBrian:

It's a fall flavor so it's on topic! From Chemical & Engineering News:

Pumpkin Spice Flavor: Popular lattes and treats contain no pumpkin, but boast plenty of food chemistry





Is Cinnamaldehyde a cross between cinnamon and formaldehyde? Enjoy your tasty Zingiberene everyone!
BB can you post surface winds for Monday ? Fla coast going to see some serious sustained winds.
GFS



CMC



Quoting 22. barbamz:


Blob and Rigde, the old couple, enjoying their last weeks together at the romantic coast of California ... So sad :-)

Thanks for the interesting update on this phenomenal marriage, Bob!


For Petes sake let's have them come back after vacation in 3 or 4 years so we can get some good, first of all, snow, and then rain. We want a cold wet winter this year in the west coast of the U.S.. There is a lot of talk about rain, but we gotta remember our snowpack here is almost completely gone here which is also record setting to our lack of rainfall. So.......we need a lot of snow first and lots of rainfall also. We have the Mediterranean climate here so we need the rain to get the rivers flowing and reservoirs and the snow to build the snowpack and the ski season so we can be good for the summer and fall. Gotta make everyone happy. also gotta remember the plants and animals who want rain and snow haha. Bring it on!! Not too much but just enough!!!
Quoting 53. tampabaymatt:




Definitly an abnormal amount of rain in the southwest U.S.
Thank you El Niño!!!
THX
Quoting 80. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Awesome! We need more mass transit (energy efficient) in the Tampa Bay area, I hope they go back to re-thinking the idea of a high speed train between Tampa and Orlando and a Light Rail system in the Tampa Bay area, especially considering the population continues to expand and congestion continues to be a problem along the roads and highways. It will also bring in more jobs to the area too. :)

St. Petersburg mayor has ideas for BP settlement funds

ST. PETERSBURG --
The city of St. Petersburg is set to receive its share of settlement money from the BP Deepwater Horizon oil spill, and Mayor Rick Kriseman already has an idea of what he'd like to do with those funds.

Kriseman revealed Wednesday how he hopes the city will spend its share of a $21 billion settlement between oil giant BP and five gulf states, including Florida.

Kriseman sent a memo to the City Council, outlining his spending suggestions for the estimated $6.5 million the city will receive from the BP Deepwater Horizon oil spill settlement.

Kriseman's suggestions include setting aside $1 million to establish a bike share program in the city and using $1.2 million for infrastructure repairs to make the city more energy efficient, environmentally friendly and better prepared for natural disasters.

Kriseman also hopes to put $350,000 toward a private commuter ferry that would cross Tampa Bay.

Council members will offer their plans for the money at a meeting Thursday.
Quoting 142. BayFog:

Where I am by the bay it's currently 64 with 61 dewpoint, heavy fog and just before sunset, castellated altocumulus approaching from the SE in the flow around our re-visiting upper level low. Offshore buoys all the way up to Bodega Bay are in the 60s, with SF Bay itself near 70 F. When the low latitude El Nino jet gets busy, there will be a whole lot of heat and moisture to tap, even right along the coast.


Always great to hear your spot-on analysis. I live in Marin county. Bring on the rain and snow to the west this year and all weather conditions to people need them in the world this Year!!! Been a tough one for humanity and the ecosystems plants and animals lately hoping good weather and climate for all
Quoting 95. Gearsts:

Daniel Swain ‏@Weather_West
CFS forecasting N. Pacific pattern very similar to those during wettest California winters.



That's a heck of a lot of energy coming from western Alaska
Quoting 149. BaltimoreBrian:

Libration of the moon




Amazing to think its a sphere in the sky and not just a disc. I would give away everything to go to the moon or even better Mars!!!
Quoting 97. Grothar:

Keep making fun of my blobs and I'll turn off the weather. :P


I wasn't making fun, I was being serious! I love the Gro
Short good morning hello from Europe where Germany is still part of the continental cold spot and gets some rain/snow to boot. But central Mediterranean countries are in the crosshairs of really torrential rains. According to Italian news in the last hours already four [edit: now five] persons died in several regions of central Italy due to flooding (here a photo gallery).


Currently strongest rains in Sicily/South Italy and some of the coastal states of the Adriatic sea.


Airmass pic from earlier this morning (6 am UTC).

Current SYNOPSIS from Estofex:
High-over-low blocking continues across Europe. On Thursday, the centre of the quasi-stationary cut-off moves from France to northern Italy. A strong jet streak curves around the periphery of this trough. Embedded in this jet, a vort-max travels across Italy to the Balkans on Thursday morning. At lower levels, cold air spreads into the west Mediterranean behind a cold front that moves into southern Italy and the southern Adriatic Sea during the period. Ahead of this cold front, a very moist air mass overlaps with an elevated mixed layer, resulting in high CAPE.

Current jet stream.

Surface pressure map.
Quoting 166. StormTrackerScott:




Did you read Steve Gregory's blog on Monday? It seems he is thinking that anomalies in the Nino3.4 could reach +2.6-+2.7C within a couple weeks. Already at +2.4C as of the last CPC update on Monday.
168. beell
Quoting 151. Jedkins01:



You're right, I forgot about that tornado event. The whole tornado outbreak as the page shows killed 21 and injured 103. I do remember that event quite well. It too was during an El Nino winter. I just forgot it occurred during the past 10 years. Seems that Florida tends to get a major killer tornado day at least once a decade, and usually the state isn't ready for it.

I remember the NWS discussion out of Melbourne and Ruskin was quite scary. They mentioned that there was dangerously high vertical shear beneath strong instability and upper support from a vigorous short wave, not something that happens too often in Florida.


The database is indeed, right-but no joy in posting. I don't think too many communities would be ready for a family of high-end EF3's at 3 in the morning. That does not occur very often anywhere. Almost half the victims were over 50 years of age.

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0106
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0927 PM CST THU FEB 01 2007

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0107
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1147 PM CST THU FEB 01 2007

Storm Reports

A fairly comprehensive look at tornado fatalities by a Univ of S FL Graduate student:

Tornado Fatalities: An In-Depth Look at Physical
and Societal Influences/Jan 2015
Quoting 134. Abacosurf:

Sanibel. 10-14-15


photo by Patrick Bailey


Sanibel=Some kinda nice!
Nasty Cell went East of us awhile ago. I woke up and the power was out. It came back on 5 minutes later and I was just told that the Signal on the corner is out and 7-11 is dark. There was lots of Thunder and Lightning but it wasn't close but I have skylights, so you know when it is happening. So far WU is reporting .05, there was a storm at 12:46AM. Good Morning to the East coast and Europe... Hey, Joe. getting any Rain?
06z GFS is sticking with its story: low forms this weekend over Bay of Campeche, storm over central GOM in 7 days, at northern gulf coast day 10, lingers on Louisiana coast for 2 days.





Quoting 171. Gearsts:



Looks worrisome, this twin setup! I hope TS "Koppu" at the doorsteps of the Philippines (where its name is "Lando") won't follow the intensity forecast of CHP6!



TS 'Lando' intensifies; PAGASA to raise warning signals
WILL NORTH FLORIDA GET WINDS TOO?

Quoting 157. BaltimoreBrian:

GFS



CMC




Quoting 174. StormGuyNFL:

WILL NORTH FLORIDA GET WINDS TOO?


Not much. We're closer to the high so the pressure gradient isn't as great. We might see 15-20 mph winds over the weekend but that's about all. It will get chilly though.
Quoting 172. PensacolaBuoy:

06z GFS is sticking with its story: low forms this weekend over Bay of Campeche, storm over central GOM in 7 days, at northern gulf coast day 10, lingers on Louisiana coast for 2 days.






Looks like it forms from a Pacific crosser on Wednesday, then bounces around the BOC until Friday. It then wanders the Gulf Coast until next Monday, the 26th, making landfall in SE Louisiana as a 1004 low. It then rockets north through Mississippi and dissipates somewhere over Tennessee. Not a very believable scenario, but at least I'd get some rain out of it, if it ever happens.
Good Morning. Tropical Atlantic relatively clear, and sheer city which you can see blowing over the convective areas, and here is the low moving towards Alaska/NW Pacific coast and the cluster of t-storms moving across South Cali; they still need lots more rain................................


And notably in the tropics,  these two late-season storms in the West-Pac:

Just a layman here. I thought Jennifer Francis talked more about ice melt affecting the north atlantic ?
Tropical Storm Koppu:
And Tropical Strorm Champi behind Koppu looks to be a fish heading into the North Pacific:

The weather channel just 5 days ago had us in Fort Lauderdale getting 10-20 mph winds on Monday, now they are saying 25-35, with occasional gusts peaking over 40 mph... The local mets are saying to bring in loose items outdoors, they are taking this surprisingly serious...
Quoting 182. weathermanwannabe:

And notably in the tropics,  these two late-season storms in the West-Pac:




I thought the West Pac had a year round typhoon season?
Looks like most of the current action for the US is actually headed towards the NW Pacific and Alaska; the models were correct in terms of the remnants of the last Hawaii system merging with the low headed to Alaska; I think Dr. Masters noted a few days that Alaska is going to experience potential hurricane or tropical storm winds from the low headed towards them:


Quoting 187. tampabaymatt:



I thought the West Pac had a year round typhoon season?


Just looked it up; you are correct.................


The Northwest Pacific basin has tropical cyclones occurring all year round regularly. There is no official definition of typhoon season for this reason. There is a distinct minimum in February and the first half ofMarch, and the main season goes from July to November with a peak in late August/early September.
*Yawn*

Right now the two storms in the pacific are reminding me of a weaker version of goni and atsani in august
Here is the October Jamstec update. Shows a peak around 2.9C. 1997 had a weekly peak @ 2.8C for comparison.

Quoting 186. Camerooski:

The weather channel just 5 days ago had us in Fort Lauderdale getting 10-20 mph winds on Monday, now they are saying 25-35, with occasional gusts peaking over 40 mph... The local mets are saying to bring in loose items outdoors, they are taking this surprisingly serious...
The actual forecast for Ft. Lauderdale on Monday is winds 21-26 mph with occasional gusts to 34. Stop listening to TV mets. They will always go to the high end for events like this. They have to say something dramatic so they keep viewers.
Quoting 187. tampabaymatt:



I thought the West Pac had a year round typhoon season?


Another strong WWB on the way. It seems as if this El-Nino is getting an extra boost.
Quoting 193. sar2401:

The actual forecast for Ft. Lauderdale on Monday is winds 21-26 mph with occasional gusts to 34. Stop listening to TV mets. They will always go to the high end for events like this. They have to say something dramatic so they keep viewers.
Yep...
Latest Euro update for October also peaks around 3C for Nino 3.4.

There are gale force winds off the coast of Alaska but a very tricky longer term forecast with the current warm low headed up from the Pacific and development of a cold low in the longer term; talk about tough to forecast:


SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
432 PM AKDT WED OCT 14 2015

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING LOW CENTERED NEAR
KODIAK ISLAND WILL BRING CONTINUED RAIN FROM THE GULF COAST INTO
BRISTOL BAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THIS RAINFALL WILL THEN BEGIN
TO LIFT INTO SOUTHCENTRAL AND THE INTERIOR SOUTHWEST MAINLAND ON
SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO LIFT INTO THE
MAINLAND. MEANWHILE OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS A WEAK LOW WILL
BEGIN TO ENTER THE AREA ON SATURDAY MORNING...AND MERGE WITH THE
GULF LOW AS IT MOVES INTO THE BERING ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL PRODUCE
A BROAD TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN BERING THAT WILL PERSIST
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...KEEPING THE JET AND ANY MAJOR WEATHER
SYSTEMS SOUTH OF THE AREA.

BY NEXT TUESDAY SIGNIFICANT MODEL DISAGREEMENT DEVELOPS WITH THE
PLACEMENT OF A LOW NEAR THE GULF. THE GFS HAS CONSISTENTLY BEEN AN
OUTLIER WITH THIS FEATURE BY BRINGING IT AS FAR NORTH AS KODIAK
ISLAND...WHILE THE GEM/EC HAVE BEEN EQUALLY CONSISTENT IN A MUCH
FURTHER SOUTH SOLUTION. FOR NOW THE CURRENT FORECAST HEAVILY
USES ENSEMBLES TO BRING A MUCH WEAKER LOW INTO THE GULF BY MID
WEEK...BUT FURTHER MODEL RUNS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED TO
DETERMINE THE EXACT TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM. AS A RESULT FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS LOW BEYOND EARLY NEXT WEEK...ESPECIALLY FOR THE
SOUTHERN MAINLAND AND THE GULF.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 119 120 130-139 150 177 178.

Quoting 183. SlabTown:

Just a layman here. I thought Jennifer Francis talked more about ice melt affecting the north atlantic ?
She studies Arctic sea ice, and, in particular, the effect of the melting of the sea ice on the jet stream. The jet stream affects the entire continent, and where it meanders will affect weather on the entire continent.
All the latest updates for October are blasting Cali & FL with heavy precip during the DJF time frame.
I think the tropics are beginning to die down, but I think we should keep a eye on this system in the gulf, may cause flooding throughout the southeast/central/northeastern US and southern Canada

This pacific hurricane season might be the 2005 equivalent of the 2005 Atlantic hurricane season.

Also, a "medicane" has a chance of forming. (P.S) Guess what hurricane is on my profile pic!
Quoting 199. StormTrackerScott:

All the latest updates for October are blasting Cali & FL with heavy precip during the DJF time frame.


Great, I live in florida. Still kinda worried about hurricanes though.
GFS 18z showing TS force winds over my house on Monday...
Quoting 201. Famoguy1234:



Great, I live in florida. Still kinda worried about hurricanes though.


As time goes the big issue will become severe weather potential. Could see some significant tornadoes this Winter.
Quoting 202. Camerooski:

GFS 18z showing TS force winds over my house on Monday...


That's a strong NE surge behind a cool front later this weekend. Local mets said winds could gust to 40 here on the east coast of FL.
Quoting 163. Trouper415:



Amazing to think its a sphere in the sky and not just a disc. I would give away everything to go to the moon or even better Mars!!!


I'd assume you'd want a return trip as part of the deal? :)

One of the problems with a trip to Mars is that humans have do not deal with absolute desolation and isolation very well. We have a tendency to crack. Even on the ISS they have a strict regiment that's followed to maintain both physical and mental health.

For Mars, assuming you didn't crack like an egg on the journey over there, you have nothing but inhospitable wasteland to look forward to. You'd essentially be living in a prison surrounded by an endless expanse of cold barren lifelessness.

The mental aspect of going to Mars is one of the biggest hurdles to clear.

Quoting 175. sar2401:

Not much. We're closer to the high so the pressure gradient isn't as great. We might see 15-20 mph winds over the weekend but that's about all. It will get chilly though.


Grade that gradient. This might be the windiest gradient i've seen, since Hurricane Noel came into the Bahamas during one. Winds here were in the 30mph range gusting to 35-40 at it's strongest. Noel likely enhanced the winds a bit, gusts for this look like they'll reach only in the mid 30s.
Quoting 204. StormTrackerScott:



That's a strong NE surge behind a cool front later this weekend. Local mets said winds could gust to 40 here on the east coast of FL.


They are calling for winds out of the NE/ENE maximum 25-30 MPH for Mon-Tues in Port St.Lucie.
Quoting 202. Camerooski:

GFS 18z showing TS force winds over my house on Monday...


This map shows wind speeds at 850mb, or roughly 5,000 feet.

Here is a map showing wind speeds at 10m from same model run and time. Breezy, yes, but not tropical storm force.

Quoting 208. GatorWX:



This map shows wind speeds at 850mb, or roughly 5,000 feet.

Here is a map showing wind speeds at 10m from same model run and time. Breezy, yes, but not tropical storm force.




Showing 30 knot winds around where I am, so somewhere around 25kts is possible at ground level. Though were I work might get those 30knot winds since it's on the 8th floor. It'll be nice to get some strong winds without that hurricane destroying feel, because who needs that.
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Summary
21:00 PM FST October 15 2015
=========================

At 9:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression 02F (1003 hPa) located at 12.3S 177.5E is reported as slowly moving. Position poor on infrared/enhanced infrared multispectral imagery and peripheral surface observations.

Convection has increased in the southwest quadrant of low level circulation center in last 6 hours. Organization remains poor. System lies under an upper ridge in a moderate to high sheared environment. Cyclonic circulation extends to 700HPA. Sea surface temperature is around 28C.

Global models have picked up the system and slowly move it southwards with slight intensification.

Tropical cyclone formation potential in the next 24 to 48 hours is MODERATE to HIGH.
Quoting 207. rmbjoe1954:



They are calling for winds out of the NE/ENE maximum 25-30 MPH for Mon-Tues in Port St.Lucie.
In Fort Lauderdale they are calling for 25-35 mph winds and occasional winds exceeding 40 mph


Been a while since we've seen these colors in Rainbow.. imagine if the center was stacked/not exposed?
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING is in effect for Rota.. Tinian.. Saipan.. Alamagan.. Pagan and Agrihan

A TYPHOON WATCH is in effect for Agrihan.. Pagan and Alamagan


Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #23
Storm Warning
TROPICAL STORM CHAMPI (1525)
21:00 PM JST October 15 2015
==============================
In Minamitori-shima Waters

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Storm Champi (996 hPa) located at 16.2N 150.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 60 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 13 knots.

Gale Force Winds
==========
240 NM from the center in western quadrant
150 NM from the center in eastern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Forecast and Intensity
================
24 HRS: 17.6N 145.1E - 55 knots (Severe Tropical Storm/CAT 2) Mariana Islands
48 HRS: 19.4N 141.8E - 65 knots (Strong Typhoon/CAT 3) Mariana Islands
72 HRS: 21.1N 140.7E - 70 knots (Strong Typhoon/CAT 3) Ogasawara waters

Super typhoon before it makes landfall over Luzon region of the Philippines?

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #23
Typhoon Warning
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM KOPPU (1524)
21:00 PM JST October 15 2015
==============================
In Sea East Of The Philippines

At 12:00 PM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Koppu (980 hPa) located at 15.4N 129.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 60 knots with gusts of 85 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 14 knots.

Storm Force Winds
============
60 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
===========
210 NM from the center in southwestern quadrant
150 NM from the center in northeastern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T3.5

Forecast and Intensity
================
24 HRS: 16.1N 125.5E - 90 knots (Very Strong Typhoon/CAT 4) Sea East Of The Philippines
48 HRS: 16.4N 122.7E - 100 knots (Very Strong Typhoon/CAT 4) Sea East Of The Philippines
72 HRS: 16.4N 120.8E - 60 knots (Severe Tropical Storm/CAT 2) Overland Luzon
From the NHC for Monday: A 60 percent chance of showers. Very cloudy, with a high near 83. Windy, with a northeast wind 26 to 32 mph, with gusts as high as 41 mph.
Quoting 215. Camerooski:

From the NHC for Monday: A 60 percent chance of showers. Very cloudy, with a high near 83. Windy, with a northeast wind 26 to 32 mph, with gusts as high as 41 mph.
I assume you mean the NWS. What forecast city are you looking at? I'm looking at Ft. Lauderdale now and it's exactly what I posted earlier.

"Monday - A 40 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 83. Windy, with a northeast wind 21 to 26 mph, with gusts as high as 34 mph."

EDIT: I forgot you live in Lauderdale-by-the-Sea. That forecast is for winds a little higher since you're on a barrier island. I can't find any forecast like the one you quoted.

"Monday - A 50 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 81. Windy, with a northeast wind 23 to 29 mph, with gusts as high as 38 mph."

Quoting 212. Camerooski:

In Fort Lauderdale they are calling for 25-35 mph winds and occasional winds exceeding 40 mph


Too bad I will miss those balmy breezes as I will be in Tennessee next week.
Quoting 206. ElConando:



Grade that gradient. This might be the windiest gradient i've seen, since Hurricane Noel came into the Bahamas during one. Winds here were in the 30mph range gusting to 35-40 at it's strongest. Noel likely enhanced the winds a bit, gusts for this look like they'll reach only in the mid 30s.
It's quite a steep gradient, especially for mid-October. We still have to see if the surface high will build in with the 1035 mb height that's forecast. Not as high and the winds won't get as high.
Quoting 209. PensacolaBuoy:


Here we go again I guess me and Pat mite as while get our shields up and this would be potential TS Kate. smh
Quoting 216. sar2401:

I assume you mean the NWS. What forecast city are you looking at? I'm looking at Ft. Lauderdale now and it's exactly what I posted earlier.

"Monday - A 40 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 83. Windy, with a northeast wind 21 to 26 mph, with gusts as high as 34 mph."


I looked at a few cities along the beach in Broward and max gust I saw was 38.
Quoting 219. bigwes6844:

Here we go again I guess me and Pat mite as while get our shields up and this would be potential TS Kate. smh


Luckily it's still 10 days out so you really have no reason to worry right now as model accuracy 10 days out is very poor.
Quoting 200. Famoguy1234:

I think the tropics are beginning to die down, but I think we should keep a eye on this system in the gulf, may cause flooding throughout the southeast/central/northeastern US and southern Canada

This pacific hurricane season might be the 2005 equivalent of the 2005 Atlantic hurricane season.

Also, a "medicane" has a chance of forming. (P.S) Guess what hurricane is on my profile pic!
You asked the same question yesterday and got about five answers. Why are you asking again? It's not hard to guess when it's our most recent hurricane and you have the name, albeit spelled incorrectly, in the photo caption.
Quoting 220. ElConando:



I looked at a few cities along the beach in Broward and max gust I saw was 38.
Yeah, I edited my original response since he actually lives in Lauderdale-by the Sea. 38 was the maximum gust there. It will probably be higher offshore and taper down inland. Won't be a major event, but will blow over those plastic lawn chairs. :-)
Quoting 200. Famoguy1234:

I think the tropics are beginning to die down, but I think we should keep a eye on this system in the gulf, may cause flooding throughout the southeast/central/northeastern US and southern Canada

This pacific hurricane season might be the 2005 equivalent of the 2005 Atlantic hurricane season.

Also, a "medicane" has a chance of forming. (P.S) Guess what hurricane is on my profile pic!


Which system in the Gulf?
Quoting 223. sar2401:

Yeah, I edited my original response since he actually lives in Lauderdale-by the Sea. 38 was the maximum gust there. It will probably be higher offshore and taper down inland. Won't be a major event, but will blow over those plastic lawn chairs. :-)


Here's to hoping it's not as strong or stronger than predicted. I don't want to lose power. Where I live, winds over 30 do the trick at times :/
Quoting 229. ElConando:



Here's to hoping it's not as strong or stronger than predicted. I don't want to lose power. Where I live, winds over 30 do the trick at times :/
All our power lines are above ground, and we have lots of street trees. Surprisingly, I 've never lost power due to wind. We have a substation two blocks over, and that thing must be a real lightning attractant. It's been struck at least yearly in the three years I've lived here. That's when I lose power.
I'm going to go out on a limb and say hurricane Troll.

Quoting 200. Famoguy1234:

Guess what hurricane is on my profile pic!
Quoting 176. Grothar:


Where oh where did the Godzilla Super Nino go?
Quoting 232. NativeSun:

Where oh where did the Godzilla Super Nino go?
Still there
Quoting 186. Camerooski:

The weather channel just 5 days ago had us in Fort Lauderdale getting 10-20 mph winds on Monday, now they are saying 25-35, with occasional gusts peaking over 40 mph... The local mets are saying to bring in loose items outdoors, they are taking this surprisingly serious...

Don't listen to the local on-air weathercasters here in the Miami TV News market as a lot of what they say deals with tv-ratings and media hype. Most of the folks that do the weather in Miami on TV could not tell you when the last major hurricane hit the area, if it ever snowed in Miami, or if Miami ever had a bad Tornado. They know nothing about South Florida weather history nor do they care. All you see in the morning is a bunch of Playboy Bunnies trying to pose as TV Weathercasters. Always get your weather information from the National Weather Service web site.
Quoting 234. HurriHistory:


Don't listen to the local on-air weathercasters here in the Miami TV News market as a lot of what they say deals with tv-ratings and media hype. Most of the folks that do the weather in Miami on TV could not tell you when the last major hurricane hit the area, if it ever snowed in Miami, or if Miami ever had a bad Tornado. They know nothing about South Florida weather history nor do they care. All you see in the morning is a bunch of Playboy Bunnies trying to pose as TV Weathercasters. Always get your weather information from the National Weather Service web site.
All of them have swimsuit model bodies and fake tans...
Quoting 233. Gearsts:

Still there

Not like 97/98 though.
Quoting 236. NativeSun:

Not like 97/98 though.
For now it is the second strongest El nino in more than 50years.
Quoting 236. NativeSun:

Not like 97/98 though.


Yeah, even stronger actually.
Quoting 214. HadesGodWyvern:
Forecast and Intensity
================
24 HRS: 16.1N 125.5E - 90 knots (Very Strong Typhoon/CAT 4) Sea East Of The Philippines
48 HRS: 16.4N 122.7E - 100 knots (Very Strong Typhoon/CAT 4) Sea East Of The Philippines
72 HRS: 16.4N 120.8E - 60 knots (Severe Tropical Storm/CAT 2) Overland Luzon

That's really bad! Poor Philippines with this "TS" Koppu/Lando. Obviously another case of rapid intensification just before landfall in the WPAC.
The Pressure Gradient Force will tighten Sunday - Tuesday as the distance between High pressure and Low Pressure DECREASE in distance in relation to each other. Also what MIGHT bring up the winds as well along the East Coast of Florida is whether Low Pressure AND High Pressure strengthen. If one or the other strengthen then winds will slightly increase if both strengthen HOLD ON TO YOUR HAT
The Low pressure I was hinting at was a developing area of low pressure in the NW Caribbean moving into Southern GOM.
The blog is really slow this morning(here), and I don't mean number of Posts. It seems like it takes between 1-2 minutes to load. I am set at 50 and have an 18Mbps line, and besides that everyone on the East Coast is out to Lunch.
244. vis0
lets see if i get this right

1 oz of flea sweat
3Lbs of belly button lint...oh wait thats 6 Lbs ...put back 3Lbs...hee hee hee...didn't know i was so ticklish...there.
32 pebbles from the nearest frog pond (its on 11th st and Ave A)
1 shot of sarsaparilla ...POWDER
stir lightly to the left 45.6 times


***P O O F***

There, WxU should be back up, this takes down the Grothar spell of shutting down the weather

WEATHER::

Lets see whats up for the last full WxTrend of calendar 2015.
Not explaining everything.
Why not?
Since it involves explaining the ml-d, so for those that read my blog here the refresh.

"All" i'll say is the Natural flow/Osc. known as El Nino(mainly ENSO-e) are above 2 times the norm (close to 3x) , the ml-d
is constantly at near 2 times the natural flow attracting toward its area within ~600miles AROUND it; moisture, and wind flows.

Since a 2 times more than the normal any natural floe in this case El Nino trumps nearly 2times ml-d,
WHEN EL NINO pulses on the positive side every other week or so (or if MJO or any other Oscillation that favours moisture plumes
towards the eastern side of the Pac) are in the vicinity of the USofA, watch out.

AniGIF::(link is towards the host pg., there click for full size)
Buenos Dia Me Llamo El Nino, Come Llama Usted


guys & gals had servers back up but the servers to browser format was not drawing correctly....who spilled the pepsi????????

MORE WEATHER::Near-Record El Nino Will Shake Up Winter Weather reports http://news.discovery.com
245. vis0



***P O O F***

repeat or #244,  only important part i left::
MORE WEATHER::Near-Record El Nino Will Shake Up Winter Weather reports http://news.discovery.com

OK fess up, who did it?
Big Duke NOLA 7 back on-line post concussion.
Quoting 236. NativeSun:

Not like 97/98 though.


No its larger. IRI update for mid October is about as high of a consensus as you will ever see. Remember the peak was 2.35 in 1997 the IRI has a consensus of near 2.6C.





back to the searing heat in Cayman.....that break sure didnt last long....really didnt get that much precip from that setup
I think that pressure gradient is stronger than we imagined, took out WU!
?

Quoting 245. vis0:

lets see if i get this right

1 oz of flea sweat
3Lbs of belly button lint...oh wait thats 6 Lbs ...put back 3Lbs...hee hee hee...didn't know i was so ticklish...there.
32 pebbles from the nearest frog pond (its on 11th st and Ave A)
1 shot of sarsaparilla ...POWDER
stir lightly to the left 45.6 times


***P O O F***

There, WxU should be back up, this takes down the Grothar spell of shutting down the weather

WEATHER::

Lets see whats up for the last full WxTrend of calendar 2015.
Not explaining everything.
Why not?
Since it involves explaining the ml-d, so for those that read my blog here the refresh.

"All" i'll say is the Natural flow/Osc. known as El Nino(mainly ENSO-e) are above 2 times the norm (close to 3x) , the ml-d
is constantly at near 2 times the natural flow attracting toward its area within ~600miles AROUND it; moisture, and wind flows.

Since a 2 times more than the normal any natural floe in this case El Nino trumps nearly 2times ml-d,
WHEN EL NINO pulses on the positive side every other week or so (or if MJO or any other Oscillation that favours moisture plumes
towards the eastern side of the Pac) are in the vicinity of the USofA, watch out.

AniGIF::(link is towards the host pg., there click for full size)
Buenos Dia Me Llamo El Nino, Come Llama Usted


guys & gals had servers back up but the servers to browser format was not drawing correctly....who spilled the pepsi????????

MORE WEATHER::Near-Record El Nino Will Shake Up Winter Weather reports http://news.discovery.com
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when does it start? its 92 degrees in Houston at the moment

Quoting 250. nrtiwlnvragn:

Strong El Niño sets the stage for 2015-2016 winter weather
October 15, 2015







Quoting 170. PedleyCA:

Nasty Cell went East of us awhile ago. I woke up and the power was out. It came back on 5 minutes later and I was just told that the Signal on the corner is out and 7-11 is dark. There was lots of Thunder and Lightning but it wasn't close but I have skylights, so you know when it is happening. So far WU is reporting .05, there was a storm at 12:46AM. Good Morning to the East coast and Europe... Hey, Joe. getting any Rain?


Sup Ped? Had a 5 minute deluge last night/ early morning. Them storms blew up right south of me and hauled ass north towards you. Cape numbers were crazy for around here of 2692 k/j.........right now my location is right near the southerly flow line, so may get a bit more....will wait and see. Have a great day all!
Quoting 234. HurriHistory:


Don't listen to the local on-air weathercasters here in the Miami TV News market as a lot of what they say deals with tv-ratings and media hype. Most of the folks that do the weather in Miami on TV could not tell you when the last major hurricane hit the area, if it ever snowed in Miami, or if Miami ever had a bad Tornado. They know nothing about South Florida weather history nor do they care. All you see in the morning is a bunch of Playboy Bunnies trying to pose as TV Weathercasters. Always get your weather information from the National Weather Service web site.


Is there a specific channel that has more than others?


Trouble at the edge of the world as Antarctica’s glaciers are undermined by warm water

Walk into your street, and step out five metres along the footpath.

Mark that spot, return tomorrow and step out an extra five metres. Do this every day, and you’ll keep pace with warm sea water as it seeps under a West Antarctic glacier.

This week a landmark study in Nature found global warming of 2 degrees would trigger a collapse of Antarctica’s critical floating ice shelves, making runaway sea level rise almost impossible to stop.

But we don’t have to wait centuries to see this unfold. In West Antarctica’s Amundsen Sea, it’s happening already. There, rapid ice loss to climate change has been declared “unstoppable”.


Read more:
Link
All I was doing was updating a featured entry and boom, the PC smoked a tad, then the site went das poof"

It'sa trap !!!


i see that there are lots of bad weather in the caribbean right now.could this be the start of the much long predicted low forming in that area by some models for awhile now
Southerly flow into Soo Cal........ULL off Central California Coast. You can also see the Sub-Tropical Jet coming in across Central Baja.


And another thing I just HATE is when we have a split in the Polar Jet and the Northern stream is more powerful and runs along the Canadien border west to east and the Southerly split part is weak and the split occurs over land, all it does is send weak systems known as "inside sliders" into the desert Southwest with the vast population centers remaining on the dry west side. I know the desert needs water also.........Thanks for letting me vent! :)
I hope this low and pressure gradient interaction doesn't too strong. Gusts up to 38 mph is just enough to me thank you very much.
Still some showers popping off in the neighborhood.

Is the GFS STILL forecasting that 8-10 days away storm for Florida?
Quoting 219. bigwes6844:

Here we go again I guess me and Pat mite as while get our shields up and this would be potential TS Kate. smh


Have you guys used all your "shields" money supply? Seems a storm predicted for LA-FLA at 10 days out for the last month.
Quoting 250. nrtiwlnvragn:

Strong El Niño sets the stage for 2015-2016 winter weather
October 15, 2015









Oh well, winter is cancelled!
Or more likely just delayed and short.
Usually during an El Ninio it starts out mild and dry, but then we get a brief cold outbreak in January followed by the return of the mild weather and a series of epic winter storms from the last week of January through February with a warm and early spring.

But through December and most of January we will be rather dry. And most of the winter we will be warm. But what storms do form and come across my neck of the woods are usually more powerful and dump heavier totals. Which will probably melt not long after since they are gonna be late season snows :P
Quoting 249. 19N81W:

back to the searing heat in Cayman.....that break sure didnt last long....really didnt get that much precip from that setup

Still getting some showers here, from the tail-end of that plume off to the NE.
Cisterns are overflowing happily, last couple of days.
I can live with this .....
http://maps.wunderground.com/data/ndfdimages/WindSp d201510191800_se.png

Wind forecast for 2pm Monday has been getting more intense as the week as rolled on.
Europe weather round-up
(and a report about Koppu threatening the Philippines in the second half of the weather video)
BBC weather video, 15 October 2015 Last updated at 18:54
Early season snow disrupted western Germany as flooding hits the Balkans. Chris Fawkes reports.

Earlier video (Koppu "particularly nasty", "stalling over the Philippines" ...)
Philippines brace for Koppu
BBC weather video, 15 October 2015 Last updated at 12:42
Heavy rain expected from Koppu as it edges closer towards Luzon. Chris Fawkes has the details.

France gets first dusting of snow as mercury dips
The Local (France) Published: 15 Oct 2015 15:44 GMT 02:00
It might only be the 15th of October but parts of central France including Burgundy witnessed the first snow falls of the season on Thursday as temperatures dropped sharply.
According to local reports in Burgundy the temperatures haven't been so low for this time of the year in 40 years. ...


Five dead as storms batter Italy
The Local (Italy), Published: 15 Oct 2015 10:13 GMT 02:00
A series of storms slammed into south and central Italy on Wednesday, leaving five people dead and creating widespread chaos. ...


Mighty and cold ULL circulation over central Europe, leading warm and moist air around eastern rear side northwards.
TD 19-E...........Hope it get's it's act together and the remains defy the models forecast and remnants buttonhook into Soo Cal like 4-5 have this summer/fall. IMO 19-E does not look as good as last night but still forecast to strengthen in a strong hurricane.......Water temps still running 8-10 degrees above normal along Baja and Soo Cal.

Quoting 264. ElConando:

I hope this low and pressure gradient interaction doesn't too strong. Gusts up to 38 mph is just enough to me thank you very much.
If it does I wouldn't be surprised to get a gale force warning...
Quoting 261. knightwarrior41:

i see that there are lots of bad weather in the caribbean right now.could this be the start of the much long predicted low forming in that area by some models for awhile now


I saw a Low, did you see a Low? Everywhere a Low Low...........LOL. Maybe it gets it RIGHT finally!
Quoting 259. ColoradoBob1:



Trouble at the edge of the world as Antarctica’s glaciers are undermined by warm water

Walk into your street, and step out five metres along the footpath.

Mark that spot, return tomorrow and step out an extra five metres. Do this every day, and you’ll keep pace with warm sea water as it seeps under a West Antarctic glacier.

This week a landmark study in Nature found global warming of 2 degrees would trigger a collapse of Antarctica’s critical floating ice shelves, making runaway sea level rise almost impossible to stop.

But we don’t have to wait centuries to see this unfold. In West Antarctica’s Amundsen Sea, it’s happening already. There, rapid ice loss to climate change has been declared “unstoppable”.


Read more:
Link



Any more good news? LOL
I should know this but where abouts are you?

Quoting 269. pottery:


Still getting some showers here, from the tail-end of that plume off to the NE.
Cisterns are overflowing happily, last couple of days.
I can live with this .....
Quoting 255. 19N81W:

when does it start? its 92 degrees in Houston at the moment




It says on the images linked in the lower right of each:

"Temperature (Precipitation) Probability Dec - Jan - Feb"

I hear you though, also in Houston and ready to be done with the summer temps. Eric Berger at the Chronicle is claiming Friday might be the last day of 90's in Houston until next Spring

Link

And as usual it is all passing far to the East. .05 today around 1AM, that was it..
THIS current El Nino is stronger in Width and Length compared to 97-98 Super Nino. The Pacific Ocean basin as a whole is warmer than 97-98 in not only the Nino regions 1-4 but the North pacific ocean is warm. I really and honestly don't think anyone knows what gonna happen. I think we will see things flip flop for troughs in the East and Cold to an immediate switch to a strong subtropical jetstream plowing into California through the Desert SW to Texas and then Florida. This zone will get crushed with Precip and severe weather especially in Gulf Coast and Florida. I do think with an ever increasing Negative NAO and snowfall increasing in Eastern Europe and Siberia that the Northeast is going to get crushed with snow mid - late winter. I was just doing research for my Synoptic Meteorology class and statistical climatology, and looking back at analogs one can make a best GUESS at it. But I don't think in RECORDED data history there was an El Nino like this with a very warm Pacific Basin and a Really COLD North Atlantic. Awesome Weather to come. Lets all enjoy it whatever comes our way!
Koppu/Lando at the doorsteps of the Philippines (*gulp*):




Click for the loop.
Quoting 279. PedleyCA:


And as usual it is all passing far to the East. .05 today around 1AM, that was it..


Yup, same here.......right on the line. Was hoping for a few showers but the street remains dry for now.....just had that one short deluge last night......hopefully it will come!
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 279. PedleyCA:


And as usual it is all passing far to the East. .05 today around 1AM, that was it..
Meanwhile, back to my meatloaf sandwich!
I am there often and looking forward to the cooler temps

Quoting 278. goavs4:



It says on the images linked in the lower right of each:

"Temperature (Precipitation) Probability Dec - Jan - Feb"

I hear you though, also in Houston and ready to be done with the summer temps. Eric Berger at the Chronicle is claiming Friday might be the last day of 90's in Houston until next Spring

Link
Quoting 261. knightwarrior41:

i see that there are lots of bad weather in the caribbean right now.could this be the start of the much long predicted low forming in that area by some models for awhile now


Earlier today Greg Postel of TWC did an excellent tutorial of the MJO. One impact is potential development in the GOM or NW Caribbean.
I am a complete dummy when it comes to weather but I get a huge kick out of it. To the untrained guy looking at the satellite images over my head (Grand Cayman) how is that not a storm brewing over my head?

It sure looks like it! I guess the fact Wunderkid is quiet suggests its nothing but as the hours tick by that looks more and more organized and keep expecting to see something on NHC but nudda?
291. bg888
Meanwhile, the Ridiculously Resilient Ridge remains. I know this is partly facetious, but why not just tug a few icebergs off the coast of California and be done with it? If we have another dry year, the consequences are going to be horrific. It is the end of October, and as right now, there's not a drop in sight for the next 10 days (GFS) or more.
Bob Henson states "El Niño refers to a periodic shift in the ocean and atmosphere that pushes west winds and warm water across the tropical Pacific, toward South America."

What I want to know is: what exactly are the various forces are at work, both regular and irregular, that cause this periodic shift?