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Blizzard Sweeping into Central States; A Cold February in Store?

By: Bob Henson 6:05 PM GMT on February 01, 2016

In the state of Iowa, Monday night looks to be a wild one both politically and meteorologically. The first-in-the-nation 2016 presidential caucuses are scheduled to begin at 7:00 pm CST, just as a powerful winter storm begins to roll into the state. Blizzard warnings are out from eastern Nebraska into northwest Iowa from very early Tuesday morning into Wednesday. The onslaught is part of a sprawling, energetic winter storm that crashed ashore in Southern California on Sunday. High winds blew across the Los Angeles and San Diego areas for an unusually long period from Sunday afternoon into Monday morning, including a gust to 62 mph around 2 am PST Monday at Mission Beach. “It’s very rare to get winds of this speed at our sea-level coastal sites,” said Brandt Maxwell, an NWS forecaster in San Diego.

The storm also brought much-needed moisture to Southern California. Santa Barbara picked up just over 1” of rain, with scattered amounts closer to 0.5” across the L.A. and San Diego coastal areas. Some higher elevations got as much as 4” of liquid over the weekend, with snow levels dipping below 2500 feet in the mountains of Ventura and Los Angeles counties. Further north, heavy snows plastered much of the Sierra Nevada. Much more moisture is needed across the region to make a significant dent in the long-term drought, as we discussed on Friday.


Figure 1. With the downtown Los Angeles skyline in the background, a large tree toppled by strong winds on Sunday afternoon, Jan. 31, 2016, barely missed several parked cars on Temple Street. In the San Diego area, a motorist was fatally struck by a tree that was knocked down by powerful winds. A winter storm brought downpours, wind and snow across California over the weekend, as strong winds downed dozens of trees and power poles and ripped off rooftops across Southern California. Image credit: Ian Feiner, via AP.

A mixed bag this week: Snow, wind, storms, and record warmth
Thundersnow was reported in the higher terrain of central and northern Arizona on Sunday night as the upper-level storm gradually organized while sweeping east. Near Flagstaff, meteorologist David Blanchard heard several rounds of thunder over a two-hour period, with “brilliant nearby flashes” around 10:15 pm MST. “In my 15 years in northern Arizona, this is probably the most thunder and lightning I've experienced in a snow event,” Blanchard said. A wind gust to 68 mph was observed at a WU station just north of Tucson as the stormy front passed by around 1 am PST (thanks to Mark Albright, University of Washington, for this tidbit).

Denver and Boulder could see more than a foot of snow on Monday into early Tuesday. That storm will produce a swath of snow accompanied by high winds as it spreads across southern Nebraska, northwest Kansas, northwest Iowa, and central Wisconsin into Tuesday. Ahead of the storm, a few record highs are possible over the Northeast early this week as mild air sweeps northward from the Gulf of Mexico.

NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center is calling for an enhanced risk of severe weather on Tuesday from northern Mississippi into western Kentucky. The modest level of instability is more likely to support damaging downburst winds rather than a major tornado outbreak.

January temps firmly in El Niño mold--but what about February?
Once again, temperatures across the nation in January behaved much as one would expect during a strong El Niño. WU member Eric Webb (North Carolina State University) has been tracking U.S. temperatures over the last few months, comparing them to the departures from average that were observed during the strongest El Niño events since 1900. Figure 2 shows the correspondence. Readings from October to December trended warmer in most places than in past strong El Niños, consistent with the overall warmth of our 21st-century climate. At the same time, the the indications of which parts of the country would be warmest during each month verified quite well. The same is true for January, although in this case much of the nation was actually cooler than it was during past El Niños.


Figure 2. Top row: month-to-month variations in average temperature during strong and “super” El Niño events between 1895 and 2014. Bottom row: variations that were actually observed from October 2015 (left) through January 2016 (right). Temperature departures are shown in blue/green colors (cooler than average) and red/orange colors (warmer than average), as calculated against the long-term average for the period 1895-2000. The El Niño events in these composites (peak Niño3.4 indices of at least 1.5°C above average for at least three overlapping three-month periods) include 1896-97, 1902-03, 1930-31, 1940-41, 1957-58, 1965-66, 1972-73, 1982-83, 1987-88, 1991-92, and 1997-98. Image credit: Eric Webb, @webberweather, using a mapping/analysis tool from NOAA’s Earth System Research Laboratory.


Colder-than-average winters have been a recurrent feature over large parts of the northern midlatitudes over the last few years, despite the overall rise in global temperature. As February unfolds, we may see a lively tug-of-war between El Niño’s tendency for mildness over the northern U.S. and Canada and the potential for marked cold over most of central and eastern North America. We can expect the latter part of this week to be seasonably chilly over large parts of the U.S. in the wake of the week’s winter storm. The big question then becomes whether a rapid warming of the Arctic stratosphere (see Figure 3) will contort the polar vortex in a way that favors bitter cold over eastern North America. The GFS and ECMWF models suggest that the jet stream across North America is likely to become highly meridional (north to south) by next week, racing from the deep Arctic to the Deep South. If this comes to pass, it could push one or more bona-fide rounds of Arctic high pressure and severe cold from central and eastern Canada into the U.S. Midwest and Northeast and perhaps into the South. As for the latter half of February, NOAA’s experimental 3-4 week temperature forecast for Feb. 13-26 shows no strong indication for either above- or below-normal temperatures east of the Great Plains.



Figure 3. Temperatures above the North Pole (90°N) in the middle of the stratosphere, at the height of 10 mb (roughly 100,000 feet). Readings for winter 2015-16 are shown in purple (observed) and orange (predicted as of January 31, 2016), in Kelvins (degrees Celsius + 273.15]. After dipping to near-record values for the satellite era in late January, temperatures are expected to soar to near-record highs by early February, a potential leap of more than 60°C (100°F)! Quickly rising temperatures at this altitude are one indication of the phenomenon known as a sudden stratosopheric warming. SSWs can cause high-altitude winds in the polar vortex to slow or reverse direction. This would make it more likely that the vortex will become distorted or split, which in turn would raise the odds of midlatitude cold intrusions. Image credit: Paul Newman (NASA), Eric Nash (SSAI), and Steven Pawson (NASA), courtesy Judah Cohen (AER).


It’s official: WU is now part of IBM
The purchase of The Weather Company (TWC) by IBM, announced in October, was finalized on Friday, January 29. This acquisition includes Weather Underground as well as WSI (TWC’s global business-to-business brand), weather.com, and The Weather Company brand. It does not include The Weather Channel's TV network, which will license weather forecast data and analytics from IBM under a long-term contract. (The Weather Underground series continues to air on TWC.)

Henceforth, WSI will be known as “The Weather Company, an IBM Business,” with Weather Underground remaining as a unit within The Weather Company. IBM’s Watson cloud platform will incorporate TWC technology to expand its Internet of Things (IoT) services for business and consumers. The Weather Company plans to collaborate with IBM’s weather research team on next-generation weather models and to work with the IBM Watson team on sophisticated analytics. “Since I became president of WSI in 1991, we’ve been through many changes,” said Mark Gildersleeve. “This promises by far to be the most significant, in particular because IBM will enable us to deliver mission-critical solutions on a much larger scale.”

IBM also announced that weather.com will be expanding to China, India, Brazil, Mexico, and Japan. For more details on the acquisition, see the Weather Company news release.

At Weather Underground, we’re looking forward to what these new collaborations will enable us to accomplish in the way of innovative weather products and technology. Meanwhile, Jeff Masters and I will keep our WunderBlog rolling. As always, we value your contributions as members of our unique WU community. Thanks for being here!

Bob Henson

Winter Weather Blizzard Extreme Weather

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks for the update Bob. Interesting things ahead to say the least...
Thank you Mr.Henson.The blog is what is unique about this site and comes in handy when storms are ongoing.
thanx for the update....here in el paso, we're currently getting snow, rain and graupel at the same time
Everyone in Iowa?

Nice blog and data grow CA. Reports of 112 mph winds out there.
IBM is planning for interesting times. Eh?
Thanks for the update. I hope the blizzard will spare those unlucky states that are gonna be on the frontline soon.
___
Off topic, from last blog:
Quoting 437. barbamz:

Sure, Xulonn: Source. Just click on the yellow (= funcioning) symbols of the buoys you like to see.
Pfew...
- Station 62105 (Buoy K4) recorded significant wave height at 49.5 ft (at 17pm UTC). Buoy K5 recorded significant wave height at 44.5 ft (at 19pm UTC).
- Station 64045 UK (Buoy K5) :
2016/02/01 05:00 --- 969.5 hPa. 12 hours later... 2016/02/01 17:00 --- 959.5 hPa.
___

From left to right (or top to bottom): 1) Bealach Na Ba - No2 (UK, alt. 763 m) - 188 km/h wind gust recorded around 17pm (the top curve). Bottom curve is mean wind speed. 2) Stornoway (UK, alt. 9m), atmos. pressure today.
- For a UK map where you can see wind gusts speed values (km/h) in many locations, follow this Link

Here's a good article about the meteorological setup : The North Battens Down As Storm Henry Arrives Monday Evening, Nick Finnis for netweather.tv / Link
Thanks Mr. Henson. The temperature shot up to 83.4 at this hour in Port. St. Lucie.
It's going to be a warm week here.
51 mph sustained wind and 20 ft waves at the Half Moon Bay buoy southwest of San Francisco last evening. Minor debris has made a mess of our yard. On the upside, clear fresh air and sun. Cold this AM but forecast takes us to 70 by the weekend. We shall see.
I'm guessing we'll have a newer blog to cover the expected severe outbreak over Dixie Alley? At lunch today I saw TorCons as high as 6 from the Weather Channel for parts of the South.
Would anyone happen to have a link or the details of longer-range temperature forecast (Feb 14-24) for the Mediterranean region (Rome, Naples, Sicily...and up to the Coast of Span)? Going on vacation - temps have been in the 48-62+ degree range (nighttime lows to daytime highs) - wondering if that will continue.
Thanks.
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
622 AM CST MON FEB 1 2016

ALZ051>060-261>266-FLZ201>206-MSZ067-075-076-078- 079-021230-
CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-B UTLER-CRENSHAW-
ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-MOBILE INLAND-BALDWIN INLAND-MOBILE CENTRAL-
BALDWIN CENTRAL-MOBILE COASTAL-BALDWIN COASTAL-ESCAMBIA INLAND-
ESCAMBIA COASTAL-SANTA ROSA INLAND-SANTA ROSA COASTAL-
OKALOOSA INLAND-OKALOOSA COASTAL-WAYNE-PERRY-GREENE-STONE-GEORGE-
622 AM CST MON FEB 1 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...NORTHWEST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

PATCHY FOG WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST AGAIN BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...AND WILL LIKELY DEVELOP NORTHWARD ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION LATE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.
FOG COULD BECOME LOCALLY DENSE...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG AREA BEACHES BEGINNING
TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE
LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...BOTH WITH
INDIVIDUAL STORM CELLS AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND WITH A SQUALL LINE THAT
WILL ADVANCE ACROSS THE AREA. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OVER 60 MPH AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER HAZARDS. THE
BEST CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER CURRENTLY LOOKS TO BE NORTHWEST OF A
CAMDEN...WIGGINS LINE...BUT ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
MAY CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON AREA ROADWAYS AND NUISANCE
FLOODING...BUT WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG AREA BEACHES TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

$$
Storm total 2.22 inches water equivalents at my PWS: 1.75 inches of rain (mostly Friday), followed by 6.5 inches of snow, which I just finished removing from the driveway.

Sierra Nevada Snowpack (Snow Water Equivalents)
The snow is pounding down here in northern NM. More than an inch an hour since about 9am. Wind is picking up. Schools getting out early. Its a mess.
Thank You Mr. Henson for the great El Nino winter based stats; irrespective of negative impacts of global warming which we are witnessiing it is actually very exciting to be living in the middle of a warming period and to be able to witness the effects, firsthand, as well as be privy to all of the related research and real time data collection as the result of modern technology. Amazing time to be living in if you are a scholar in the area, met, or weather enthusiast and appreciate all that you and Dr. Masters do to advance the cause by providing information and links to the data.
Thanks for the Update Mr. Henson..
Thanks for the update guys.
GFS, Euro, and CMC are all starting to show a coastal storm next Monday-Tuesday.
That was one nasty storm last night! Thought my house was gonna come apart from that wind! Finished up a tad over 2" rain. My laptop took a hit from quadruple power surge/bump fried my power adapter. Posting from my mini 5x8 iPad. Did order a replacement cord before my battery got too low. That was scary last night!!
Thank you Mr.. Henson.
Quoting 10. A4Guy:

Would anyone happen to have a link or the details of longer-range temperature forecast (Feb 14-24) for the Mediterranean region (Rome, Naples, Sicily...and up to the Coast of Span)? Going on vacation - temps have been in the 48-62+ degree range (nighttime lows to daytime highs) - wondering if that will continue.
Thanks.

Welcome to Europe, but even though I'm living there (Germany), I'm unfortunately not able to help you. Even if there were some long range weather outlooks (CFS): this far out, I'd not rely on them at all. Usually weather cannot be predicted further out than a couple of days, even if some models calculate for 14 days ahead. Concerning the Mediterranean Region: If there happen to be southern winds (scirocco from the Sahara) it might be relatively warm, but otherwise: don't be disappointed if it's sometimes really chilly, rainy and windy in February, and be prepaired for both.
Quoting 18. Climate175:

GFS, Euro, and CMC are all starting to show a coastal storm next Monday-Tuesday.


Yeah I've noticed that too. It's 7 days out but... ... ...

One of the El Nino winter modes is virtually no snow for the Mid Atlantic.

Looks like we're in the other mode.
Thanks Bob. IBM, huh? I expect to see dark suits, white shirts and red ties starting tomorrow...
Moderate rain now should do away with the snow at a good pace.
Quoting 23. NttyGrtty:

Thanks Bob. IBM, huh? I expect to see dark suits, white shirts and red ties starting tomorrow...


This is not your Father's IBM.

Quoting 24. Climate175:

Moderate rain now should do away with the snow at a good pace.


Yeah. I want it gone by wednesday morning to reduce flood risk.

Quoting 26. georgevandenberghe:



Yeah. I want it gone by wednesday morning to reduce flood risk.


Happy four year anniversary George.
Quoting 22. georgevandenberghe:



Yeah I've noticed that too. It's 7 days out but... ... ...

One of the El Nino winter modes is virtually no snow for the Mid Atlantic.

Looks like we're in the other mode.
A lot of storm threats to watch coming up. February will be interesting to watch.
"Thanks for being here!

Bob Henson"

No, thank you!
Quoting 25. georgevandenberghe:


This is not your Father's IBM.



In my case, the dark suit IBM was my brother's IBM. I think they let him go after 28 years because he was still wearing dark suits, white shirts, and red ties...
Armonk, NY, and Atlanta – January 29, 2016 -- IBM (NYSE: IBM) today announced that it has closed the acquisition of The Weather Company’s B2B, mobile and cloud-based web properties, weather.com, Weather Underground,The Weather Company brand and WSI, its global business-to-business brand. The cable TV segment was not acquired by IBM, but will license weather forecast data and analytics from IBM under a long-term contract.
This sounds very positive with the experience and expertise that the people at IBM possess. I expect things will get technologically better, and hopefully functionally better as well. You know the wunderground website still doesn't fully work? And even worse there are projects on there that have obviously been abandoned. No doubt those things will get fixed.
It's also great that there is no association with the cable channel. Bye, see ya, wouldn't wanna to be ya...
Quoting 28. Climate175:

A lot of storm threats to watch coming up. February will be interesting to watch.


Yeah looks interesting for sure but NE US really looks warm after next week due to the MJO getting into a more warm phase for mid February. However as has been the case it February looks very stormy across FL. Maybe more rainfall records dropping this month across FL. January was in most cases across E C FL in the top 3 wettest ever.

with talk of the Mid-Atlantic, I would like to report that the snow pile on my tiny front lawn is now about 7 feet high and 10 feet around, compared to about 12 feet high and 12 feet around the day after snow clearing was done.

i predicted it would remain until Spring, but I had no idea we'd have a run of days this much above average temps.
Here is the current look and jet configuration going into this evening and tomorrow across Conus:






Quoting 32. StormTrackerScott:



Yeah looks interesting for sure but NE US really looks warm after next week due to the MJO getting into a more warm phase for mid February. However as has been the case it February looks very stormy across FL. Maybe more rainfall records dropping this month across FL. January was in most cases across E C FL in the top 3 wettest ever.


Hi Scott. How does this acquisition by IBM relate to El Nino?
Quoting 18. Climate175:

GFS, Euro, and CMC are all starting to show a coastal storm next Monday-Tuesday.
What coast are they showing storms for? i don't know how to look at all these models people talk about. And what kind storms are you meaning? Severe weather or winter storms? Thanks
good update bob as always

thanks
Quoting 33. Patrap:


Quoting 37. mobhurricane2011:

What coast are they showing storms for? i don't know how to look at all these models people talk about. And what kind storms are you meaning? Severe weather or winter storms? Thanks
It is for the East Coast, and it might be a winter storm, too early to tell.
65 F in Boston

Winter Winter Winter
Bah Humbug, they issued an advisory for us here in northern Mi. 3~6 inches, hardly worth it but for the wind they say is coming. Where's my snow.
Currently 34 F, only about 1 ~ 1 1/2 feet or so left on the ground after the warm weather.
I dont know. January was right on average for temps here in Chicago. Low precip but thats fine. I expected a warmer January.
Quoting 44. JimSmetana:

I dont know. January was right on average for temps here in Chicago. Low precip but thats fine. I expected a warmer January.


Slightly below average in Mid Atlantic but hardly noteworthy.
Quoting 36. Llamaluvr:

Hi Scott. How does this acquisition by IBM relate to El Nino?


Record something for central florida of course!

be nice taz
Quoting 9. OrchidGrower:

I'm guessing we'll have a newer blog to cover the expected severe outbreak over Dixie Alley? At lunch today I saw TorCons as high as 6 from the Weather Channel for parts of the South.

You might be able to get some sense out of this if you investigate all its corners and parts etc.

Link

Barb has all sorts of European links, being in the centre of things up in Germany.
Quoting 34. ariot:

with talk of the Mid-Atlantic, I would like to report that the snow pile on my tiny front lawn is now about 7 feet high and 10 feet around, compared to about 12 feet high and 12 feet around the day after snow clearing was done.

i predicted it would remain until Spring, but I had no idea we'd have a run of days this much above average temps.


Normally snow piles shrink a few inches a day in our typical winter temperatures. This means a 10 foot snow pile might last a month but probably won't last the winter. Parking lot snow piles shrink faster because they have salt.

In the 2010 event the snow was dry and the kids made snow forts and igloos out of the wetter snow salvaged from the street. I told them this was a mistake and they would melt faster and of course I was right (otherwise of course you'd never hear of it again)
Quoting 42. GeorgiaStormz:

65 F in Boston

Winter Winter Winter

Is that Boston USA or Boston Lincolnshire UK?
Quoting 43. TroutMadness:

Bah Humbug, they issued an advisory for us here in northern Mi. 3~6 inches, hardly worth it but for the wind they say is coming. Where's my snow.
Currently 34 F, only about 1 ~ 1 1/2 feet or so left on the ground after the warm weather.

no snow for us
25 to 30 mm of rain temps soaring too above 50 on wed morning
then drop to the teens thurs night
winds will gust as storm approaches from east at 60 kmh
then again after cold frontal passage late wed afternoon early evening
rumble or two of thunder could happen as well

Current conditions at
Tallahassee, Tallahassee Regional Airport (KTLH)
Lat: 30.49°NLon: -84.2°WElev: 79ft.

Partly Cloudy

78°F

26°C
Humidity 50%
Wind Speed S 8 mph
Barometer 29.97 in (1014.8 mb)
Dewpoint 58°F (14°C)
Visibility 10.00 mi
Heat Index 79°F (26°C)
Last update 1 Feb 4:53 pm EST

A couple days of spring like temps before winter comes back in full swing for a while.
Quoting 32. StormTrackerScott:



Yeah looks interesting for sure but NE US really looks warm after next week due to the MJO getting into a more warm phase for mid February. However as has been the case it February looks very stormy across FL. Maybe more rainfall records dropping this month across FL. January was in most cases across E C FL in the top 3 wettest ever.




Yeah models have already trended much wetter with this mid week system, which wasn't originally expected to be a maker. However it looks like it;s going to be major rainmaker from the 1-4 corridor north upwards through here and the panhandle. The NWS is Ruskin has widespread 1-2 inches expected with locally higher totals from the Tampa Bay area north. We could ket widespread 2-3 inches and maybe a couple severe thunderstorms.

These warmer days out ahead of this system should make for higher CAPE and thus more interesting weather around here than anything we saw in January. Hoping to see a good thunderstorm here on Wednesday.
Figure 1 (above) shows a classic case of Armillaria root rot. This fungal disease affects many species of woody plants (trees and shrubs).
Sometimes, the plant might appear vigorous, as shown in the picture, although the root collar is in a serious state of decay. This potentially makes the tree very hazardous.

Look for lines of fungal fruiting bodies (mushrooms) radiating outwards from the root collar of the tree. if you spot these, then consult an expert in Arboriculture. Do not take matters into your own hands, if you are inexperienced in forestry.

Here are some links where you can find a qualified Arborist:

http://www.isa-arbor.com/

http://tcia.org/
Quoting 51. PlazaRed:


Is that Boston USA or Boston Lincolnshire UK?


That would be Boston, Mass. USA
The storm on the left is the harbinger to the Feb 8-9th storm.
Afternoon all. Interesting to see precipitation in so many parts of the US, but not surprising given the el nino.

We had our fair share of rain here in the NW Bahamas around the midday hours. Rain rates were pretty fierce for a winter event, with some winds as well. There was extensive localized flooding of lowlying areas, which feels quite strange for Feb 1 ... However the system was fast moving, so that we are pretty much clear now and set for another night of cooler temps.

I endured some of the coolest temps I have experienced in quite some time while in Ft. Lauderdale on Friday night .... was cold enough at one point to lend itself to frosty breaths ... :o)
Quoting 23. NttyGrtty:

Thanks Bob. IBM, huh? I expect to see dark suits, white shirts and red ties starting tomorrow...
Thought they were allowing the purple option in these modern times.
Huh.
Hey vis0.............looks like a blob.....but? anything there most likely would drift south.



Quoting 58. Climate175:

The storm on the left is the harbinger to the Feb 8-9th storm.


Looks good,eh Clime??

Quoting 61. Grothar:

Hey vis0.............looks like a blob.....but? anything there most likely would drift south.







do i see bonnie in the making
Quoting 63. Tazmanian:




do i see bonnie in the making
Snap. Would be super cool to have a winter hurricane in Jan AND Feb of the same year .... that would be one for the books!
Quoting 62. Grothar:



Looks good,eh Clime??


Yep, Bernie Rayno just said in his video that he would be surprised if there is not a storm along the East Coast next week.
So hazy... so....... well I can't say it lol.

Quoting 61. Grothar:

Hey vis0.............looks like a blob.....but? anything there most likely would drift south.






South ! But south means towards us lol...
Quoting 55. Caesari:
Figure 1 (above) shows a classic case of Armillaria root rot. This fungal disease affects many species of woody plants (trees and shrubs).
Sometimes, the plant might appear vigorous, as shown in the picture, although the root collar is in a serious state of decay. This potentially makes the tree very hazardous.

Look for lines of fungal fruiting bodies (mushrooms) radiating outwards from the root collar of the tree. if you spot these, then consult an expert in Arboriculture...
I was wondering what caused such a clean break at the root crown with no splintering at all - that explains it. Apparently the fungus penetrates radially right through the heartwood to the pith at the center of the trunk. At first glance, the tree looks quite healthy with really dense foliage - I wonder what species it is?
Quoting 63. Tazmanian:




do i see bonnie in the making


Whoever heard of a tropical storm in winter??? :)
Holy sh...! The ocean's coming back with a revenge.

National Weather Service OPC on Twitter ( Link ) :

"Wow! Recent AltiKa pass captured near 64 ft with hurricane force low west of Scotland!"
---------
"(...) Pacific hurricane force low. OPC 24-hr forecast calls for 70 kt winds & seas to 51 ft!"

Quoting 48. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


be nice taz


Target his weapons array!

My power cord for laptop is working again.......could not get the power light on it to come on last night after the power surges and bumps....it is now recharging my battery and running the laptop......maybe it has a time cycle to start working again....lol.....anyway if it takes a dump again, I have another on the way for backup as I got a good deal on EBAY at 2am for $8.95.

I live in a valley that comes out of the northwest to southeast/south. I am seeing reports of 50 mph winds in San Diego County from last nights storm. Winds for most of the day yesterday prior to frontal/trof passage were out of the S/SW which is the normal way it works. After passage winds shifted and strengthened out of the W/NW. The front came through my location between 3-4pm and was moving very quickly.31 Jan 3:40 pm 47 41 78 W 20G36 OK

I DO NOT have any expertise with wind speeds and some of you folks will know better. That 3:40pm report above is from San Diego Gas and Electric site that reports to NWS. is in a more sheltered location by the highway within a 1/4 mile of me and the highest gust was only 36mph.
I am wondering if a funnel effect up the canyon, low level jet? The highest winds went on til like 3 in the morningand the sound! Just a powerful feeling whoosh that built up and was pretty loud, I was afraid my glass sliding door might give way. Winds blew chairs and other light/medium weight items over and into exterior wall of my house. Not seeing trees down or branches but the sound! Most bizzare! Sorry for the rant. Happy my laptop is back up and battery is up to 38%!
So Warren Buffett now owns the weather?
Quoting 69. Grothar:



Whoever heard of a tropical storm in winter??? :)


Now, what exactly is a tropical storm again? Are we in redefining times? Inquiring minds want to know? :)
Quoting 73. Guysgal:

So Warren Buffett now owns the weather?


But he's going to give 99% of it away.
I cannot describe the pitch of sound the high winds made....maybe a high whirring pitch? It is not a good sound especially when it kept getting louder and louder as it got closer or built up.
Quoting 77. washingtonian115:


GFS ensembles beginning to agree on this as well.
Quoting 78. Climate175:

GFS ensembles beginning to agree on this as well.
The NWS is watching as well
img src="FOR MON BOTH ECMWF AND GFS BRINGS A COASTAL LOW NEAR US... BUT GFS
HAS PRECIP REACHING OUR CWA EARLIER ON MON. WE HAVE TO WATCH THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM AS P-TYPE MIGHT BE AN ISSUE DEPENDING ON THE
TIME IT REACHES US. HIGH TEMPS FOR THIS PERIOD WILL BE IN THE MOSTLY
IN THE 40S AND LOW TEMPS IN THE 20S AND LOW 30S.">
Quoting 71. 62901IL:



Target his weapons array!




lol i this put up my shields so you can get me how ever my ship is power full then yours so your out gun
Quoting 61. Grothar:

Hey vis0.............looks like a blob.....but? anything there most likely would drift south.






quick hid it from CaribBoy oh wait too late


Bonnet Carre Spillway's final bays close after river height drops

After letting the Mississippi River's gushing water flow freely to Lake Pontchartrain for 22 days, the Bonnet Carre Spillway was officially closed Monday (Feb. 1). The Army Corps of Engineers blocked off the last of the spillway's open bays at about 1:30 p.m.

Unlike the spillway's opening on Jan. 10, there were no large crowds gathered at the Norco site for the closing. But there were handshakes all around after crews finished dropping the creosoted wooden "needles" back into place and walked through the gate to leave the structure. A handful of needles were left in storage on top of the structure, to be replaced later after the river level drops further and allows driftwood blocking their spots to be removed.
Quoting 61. Grothar:

Hey vis0.............looks like a blob.....but? anything there most likely would drift south.






UKMET has shown possible development for the last few cycles

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 42 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T 42 : 24.8N 59.4W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 03.02.2016 48 24.2N 58.9W 1013 26
0000UTC 04.02.2016 60 22.3N 57.2W 1009 27
1200UTC 04.02.2016 72 22.6N 58.1W 1009 25
0000UTC 05.02.2016 84 23.4N 61.4W 1012 27
1200UTC 05.02.2016 96 CEASED TRACKING



Quoting 73. Guysgal:

So Warren Buffett now owns the weather?
He'd better get something out of it. The Oracle of Omaha has managed to lose more than $2 billion on his $13 billion worth of stock he bought when IBM was near its high in 2011. Since then, he has dollar cost averaged his way into buying even more IBM stock as the price collapsed about 25% over the past three years. He says he's in it for the long haul. I don't think he's going to see a profit before he shuffles off to the Great Merger in the Sky.
Interesting things have taken place since my last visit.

1. Overnight guidance continues to advertise a full latitude trough digging well South across North America. It also suggests a Stratospheric Warming event across the Polar Region of the Northern Hemisphere with a strong blocking signature. The blocking signature is indicated by the orange 'U' shaped area from the West Coast to Greenland. The blue shades are indicative of full latitude trough with temperatures departures nearing the -20 degree range. There are growing indications that some areas may near 2 Standard Deviation below normal, temperature wise. Will this pattern translate to much colder for SE Texas? Anybody have any ideas?




2. An upper-level storm system heading for the Midwest today and Tuesday will drive a pre frontal trough across the Houston area early Tuesday followed by a strong frontal passage late Tuesday. I think the pre-frontal trough will be able to squeeze out a shower or two over the region, but NWS says the moist surface air mass is generally shallow with very dry air mass above (sheesh, things haven't changed around here since late December!). NWS is being generous with a 30% rain chance…but if you're a thunderstorm fan, be ready for a disappointment..

The dry WNW winds will lower dewpoints and RH values on Tuesday. Conditions on Tuesday will not likely to support a critical fire weather danger. Conditions will be elevated west of I-45, though.

A strong cold front will progress across the Houston area late Tuesday afternoon with strong cold air advection driving temperatures into the 30’s by Wednesday morning. Cold high pressure will build down the plains and into TX with cold nights and cool days Wednesday-Friday. Low temperatures Thursday and again on Friday morning may touch freezing in the normally colder locations and away from urban areas. Overall clear skies and little chance of rain beyond Tuesday.

Next weather system will approach the area on Saturday with increasing clouds over the cold surface dome. Moisture once again looks meager, but strong lift will work with what moisture is available to produce at least a chance of showers over mainly the southern half of the region SE Texas Saturday. If more moisture than currently expected is available, this system could be fairly wet. But the pattern of late has been to take the drier solutions…somewhat unusual for TX El Nino winters.

Next week: Some of the longer range forecast models…ECMWF and CMC…have been indicating the development and southward progression of an arctic air mass toward the start of next week. Model solutions this winter have been far less than satisfactory with both cold air intrusions and potential storm systems at the longer range which doesn't leave me much confidence in what may transpire next week. But, hey, winter's not over, so don't worry.


3. Well, I did say I didn't have much confidence in what may transpire next week, right? An old chum of mine at NWS tells me he's not seeing any REALLY cold weather over the next 2 weeks. GFS says maybe light freeze around the 10th, but the Euro says has lows across Houston closer to 41 more likely that day. Who agrees with the Euro? Hm?
Found this list of highest winds in San Diego County mountains yesterday....Im gonna guess and say I had some 60mph winds around here. I could not even imagine a Cat 3 hurricane and staying home and having to listen to that ROAR! 60mph was scary enough......people that stay in their house for a major hurricane are either CRAZY or STUPID! JMO! I would sleep in my car 200 miles away rather than stay in home for that.

...SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-INCLUDING THE PALOMAR AND DESCANSO RANGER DISTRICTS OF THE CLEVELAND NATIONAL FOREST...
HARRISON PARK 85 MPH 0330 PM 01/31 4861 FT
LUCKY FIVE RANCH 80 MPH 0330 PM 01/31 4740 FT
VOLCAN MOUNTAIN 73 MPH 0340 PM 01/31 5154 FT
JULIAN (4 W) 72 MPH 0330 PM 01/31 3738 FT
LAKE CUYAMACA 67 MPH 0330 PM 01/31 4779 FT
JULIAN (2 SE) 64 MPH 0341 PM 01/31 4487 FT
BOUCHER HILL 64 MPH 1247 PM 01/31 5440 FT
INAJA PARK (SANTA YSABEL) 64 MPH 0330 PM 01/31 3314 FT
WEST WYNOLA 64 MPH 0330 PM 01/31 3553 FT
CRESTWOOD 63 MPH 1010 PM 01/31 4114 FT
WEST SANTA YSABEL 62 MPH 0320 PM 01/31 3291 FT
CAMPO 61 MPH 1040 PM 01/31 2630 FT
GUATAY 61 MPH 1000 PM 01/31 3892 FT
MATAGUAY 61 MPH 0320 PM 01/31 2803 FT
EAST WARNERS 60 MPH 0100 AM 02/01 3242 FT
MESA GRANDE 60 MPH 1010 PM 01/31 3349 FT
RANCHITA 60 MPH 0330 PM 01/31 4128 FT
BOULEVARD WEST 59 MPH 0400 PM 01/31 3404 FT
JULIAN 57 MPH 0330 PM 01/31 4201 FT
SILL HILL 57 MPH 0330 PM 01/31 3556 FT
NORTH DESCANSO 56 MPH 1000 PM 01/31 3377 FT
WARNERS 56 MPH 0320 PM 01/31 2842 FT
SCHOOL HOUSE CANYON (5 NW JU 55 MPH 0330 PM 01/31 4284 FT
LA POSTA 54 MPH 0240 AM 02/01 4000 FT
BIG BLACK MOUNTAIN 53 MPH 0217 PM 01/31 4055 FT
OAK GROVE 53 MPH 0340 PM 01/31 2756 FT
Quoting 76. HurricaneHunterJoe:

I cannot describe the pitch of sound the high winds made....maybe a high whirring pitch? It is not a good sound especially when it kept getting louder and louder as it got closer or built up.
I'm glad the power supply was the worst damage you had. Real high winds tend to get under the eves of a house and get in through small openings. Makes for a weird kind of low pitched whistle that varies in pitch with the wind speed. It's one of those things that makes you wish you had ear plugs for.




PLEASE have multiple ways of receiving warnings (cellphone, weather radio, tv, etc.) that will alert or even wake you up when/if warnings are issued. Charge your cellphone and laptop. Ensure your weather radio has fresh batteries and is programmed properly.

Pacific jet still going full tilt with two significant maximums, 220 mph and 196 mph. Bumping into a ridge right now, but forecast to undercut sometime after the weekend. Long range models according to our local forecast offices say a resumption of a rainy regime after about the 15th, but with periodic weak systems before then to keep the vegetation green.

Quoting 83. nrtiwlnvragn:



UKMET has shown possible development for the last few cycles

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 42 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T 42 : 24.8N 59.4W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 03.02.2016 48 24.2N 58.9W 1013 26
0000UTC 04.02.2016 60 22.3N 57.2W 1009 27
1200UTC 04.02.2016 72 22.6N 58.1W 1009 25
0000UTC 05.02.2016 84 23.4N 61.4W 1012 27
1200UTC 05.02.2016 96 CEASED TRACKING







What part of the US is going to get hit?
Quoting 86. Grothar:




Is that a ****?
Quoting 91. pureet1948:




What part of the US is going to get hit?



lol
Quoting 90. BayFog:


Pacific jet still going full tilt with two significant maximums, 220 mph and 196 mph. Bumping into a ridge right now, but forecast to undercut sometime after the weekend. Long range models according to our local forecast offices say a resumption of a rainy regime after about the 15th, but with periodic weak systems before then to keep the vegetation green.




Ridge? We don't need no stinking ridge!
Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston Texas
534 PM CST Monday Feb 1 2016

Previous discussion... /issued 338 PM CST Monday Feb 1 2016/ short term - fog just hovering offshore and with temperatures at maximum now and with these falling and south winds in place expect that fog will spread across the island in the next 3 hours and then inland. Areas around Matagorda Bay look like they have improved a good deal but again with the cooling coming expect that to fill in as well. Will continue the dense fog advisory through 6 am areas around Galveston will be the last to clear out so it may need adjusting by an hour or two. Next issue is the dryline/Pacific cold front marching east tonight and should traverse the area between 2 am and 8 am...some of the models have trended faster and drier and have favor the mesoscale models timing and drier scenario given the strong to very strong cap over the area. 
Can't rule out a squeegee line of showers developing around the Madisonville and spreading southeastward but it is very strong cap. Temperatures tomorrow will be dependent on how quickly skies clear which should be before noon for most areas and with the westerly winds expect temperatures to climb into the upper 60s to middle 70s even in the wake of the 'cold' front. The colder air arrives Tuesday night and will help to keep winds up and sets the stage for dry north winds Tuesday and clear skies. Will probably have a good deal of prescribed burning going on Wednesday. High pressure builds in and will likely see a light freeze north Thursday morning.
Fairly big change to the previous forecast commences.
High pressure slips east and winds become easterly as next lagging upper trough drags out to the east trailing back into nm upper jet strengthens and upper diffluence across the region pulls back moisture into S Texas and middle levels saturate and spread east across the region late Friday and Saturday. This will likely make for a cold and wet Saturday and overnight into early Sunday. Soundings show deep middle level saturation and dry below so wet bulbing will likely cause cooler temperatures and have undercut temperature guidance and for now will carry 30-50 probability of precipitation- noon Saturday through 9 am Sunday look to be the peak of the cold and wet conditions then drying as exit region in southern stream departs and high pressure intrudes by middle day Monday. 
"45
Quoting 94. HurricaneHunterJoe:




lol



LOL? Then this thing is not likely to affect any of the Gulf Coast or Atlantic states? Euro shuts a low across Florida at 168 hours. Is this the same thing, HurricaneHunterJoe?

Quoting 51. PlazaRed:


Is that Boston USA or Boston Lincolnshire UK?


Haha USA
It looks like the UK version is in the 40s Fahrenheit
Quoting 96. Patrap:

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston Texas
534 PM CST Monday Feb 1 2016

Previous discussion... /issued 338 PM CST Monday Feb 1 2016/ short term - fog just hovering offshore and with temperatures at maximum now and with these falling and south winds in place expect that fog will spread across the island in the next 3 hours and then inland. Areas around Matagorda Bay look like they have improved a good deal but again with the cooling coming expect that to fill in as well. Will continue the dense fog advisory through 6 am areas around Galveston will be the last to clear out so it may need adjusting by an hour or two. Next issue is the dryline/Pacific cold front marching east tonight and should traverse the area between 2 am and 8 am...some of the models have trended faster and drier and have favor the mesoscale models timing and drier scenario given the strong to very strong cap over the area. 
Can't rule out a squeegee line of showers developing around the Madisonville and spreading southeastward but it is very strong cap. Temperatures tomorrow will be dependent on how quickly skies clear which should be before noon for most areas and with the westerly winds expect temperatures to climb into the upper 60s to middle 70s even in the wake of the 'cold' front. The colder air arrives Tuesday night and will help to keep winds up and sets the stage for dry north winds Tuesday and clear skies. Will probably have a good deal of prescribed burning going on Wednesday. High pressure builds in and will likely see a light freeze north Thursday morning.
Fairly big change to the previous forecast commences.
High pressure slips east and winds become easterly as next lagging upper trough drags out to the east trailing back into nm upper jet strengthens and upper diffluence across the region pulls back moisture into S Texas and middle levels saturate and spread east across the region late Friday and Saturday. This will likely make for a cold and wet Saturday and overnight into early Sunday. Soundings show deep middle level saturation and dry below so wet bulbing will likely cause cooler temperatures and have undercut temperature guidance and for now will carry 30-50 probability of precipitation- noon Saturday through 9 am Sunday look to be the peak of the cold and wet conditions then drying as exit region in southern stream departs and high pressure intrudes by middle day Monday. 
"45


Didn't I just say that, Patrap?
Quoting 72. HurricaneHunterJoe:

My power cord for laptop is working again.......could not get the power light on it to come on last night after the power surges and bumps....it is now recharging my battery and running the laptop......maybe it has a time cycle to start working again....lol.....anyway if it takes a dump again, I have another on the way for backup as I got a good deal on EBAY at 2am for $8.95.

I live in a valley that comes out of the northwest to southeast/south. I am seeing reports of 50 mph winds in San Diego County from last nights storm. Winds for most of the day yesterday prior to frontal/trof passage were out of the S/SW which is the normal way it works. After passage winds shifted and strengthened out of the W/NW. The front came through my location between 3-4pm and was moving very quickly.31 Jan 3:40 pm 47 41 78 W 20G36 OK

I DO NOT have any expertise with wind speeds and some of you folks will know better. That 3:40pm report above is from San Diego Gas and Electric site that reports to NWS. is in a more sheltered location by the highway within a 1/4 mile of me and the highest gust was only 36mph.
I am wondering if a funnel effect up the canyon, low level jet? The highest winds went on til like 3 in the morningand the sound! Just a powerful feeling whoosh that built up and was pretty loud, I was afraid my glass sliding door might give way. Winds blew chairs and other light/medium weight items over and into exterior wall of my house. Not seeing trees down or branches but the sound! Most bizzare! Sorry for the rant. Happy my laptop is back up and battery is up to 38%!
If you don't see a lot of leaf litter and small limbs down you probably didn't have sustained winds more than 40 mph or gusts more than 50 mph. A 40 mph is actually pretty powerful, enough so that people almost always overestimate the wind speed. Maybe it's because we often see warnings for thunderstorms with wind of 60 mph that people will think a strong wind must have been 60 mph. Most places rarely experience sustained winds of more than 40 mph, even in a storm. I've had an anemometer for enough of my life now that I've gotten better at estimating wind speeds, but I still tend to estimate wind speed at about 10 mph higher than what shows up on the weather station.
Quoting 86. Grothar:



Gro... I know you've seen this area 10,000 times in your life, but context? Where is this highly disorganized mass of thunderstorms that is very unlikely to develop into anything worth noting considering it is the beginning of February?
Quoting 85. pureet1948:

Interesting things have taken place since my last visit.

1. Overnight guidance continues to advertise a full latitude trough digging well South across North America. It also suggests a Stratospheric Warming event across the Polar Region of the Northern Hemisphere with a strong blocking signature. The blocking signature is indicated by the orange 'U' shaped area from the West Coast to Greenland. The blue shades are indicative of full latitude trough with temperatures departures nearing the -20 degree range. There are growing indications that some areas may near 2 Standard Deviation below normal, temperature wise. Will this pattern translate to much colder for SE Texas? Anybody have any ideas?




2. An upper-level storm system heading for the Midwest today and Tuesday will drive a pre frontal trough across the Houston area early Tuesday followed by a strong frontal passage late Tuesday. I think the pre-frontal trough will be able to squeeze out a shower or two over the region, but NWS says the moist surface air mass is generally shallow with very dry air mass above (sheesh, things haven't changed around here since late December!). NWS is being generous with a 30% rain chance…but if you're a thunderstorm fan, be ready for a disappointment..

The dry WNW winds will lower dewpoints and RH values on Tuesday. Conditions on Tuesday will not likely to support a critical fire weather danger. Conditions will be elevated west of I-45, though.

A strong cold front will progress across the Houston area late Tuesday afternoon with strong cold air advection driving temperatures into the 30’s by Wednesday morning. Cold high pressure will build down the plains and into TX with cold nights and cool days Wednesday-Friday. Low temperatures Thursday and again on Friday morning may touch freezing in the normally colder locations and away from urban areas. Overall clear skies and little chance of rain beyond Tuesday.

Next weather system will approach the area on Saturday with increasing clouds over the cold surface dome. Moisture once again looks meager, but strong lift will work with what moisture is available to produce at least a chance of showers over mainly the southern half of the region SE Texas Saturday. If more moisture than currently expected is available, this system could be fairly wet. But the pattern of late has been to take the drier solutions…somewhat unusual for TX El Nino winters.

Next week: Some of the longer range forecast models…ECMWF and CMC…have been indicating the development and southward progression of an arctic air mass toward the start of next week. Model solutions this winter have been far less than satisfactory with both cold air intrusions and potential storm systems at the longer range which doesn't leave me much confidence in what may transpire next week. But, hey, winter's not over, so don't worry.


3. Well, I did say I didn't have much confidence in what may transpire next week, right? An old chum of mine at NWS tells me he's not seeing any REALLY cold weather over the next 2 weeks. GFS says maybe light freeze around the 10th, but the Euro says has lows across Houston closer to 41 more likely that day. Who agrees with the Euro? Hm?



All I'm asking for is one solid hard freeze to kill all the mosquito eggs and give us a "normal" summer in terms of mosquitos (as opposed to "tie down anything less than 50 lbs in case the mosquitos decide to carry it away" summer)
Quoting 97. pureet1948:




LOL? Then this thing is not likely to affect any of the Gulf Coast or Atlantic states? Euro shuts a low across Florida at 168 hours. Is this the same thing, HurricaneHunterJoe?


Maybe Houston Pureet?
Quoting 91. pureet1948:




What part of the US is going to get hit?



N CA has a cat 5
Just look at the flow from the El's Nino's..

Awesome .

Quoting 100. sar2401:

If you don't see a lot of leaf litter and small limbs down you probably didn't have sustained winds more than 40 mph or gusts more than 50 mph. A 40 mph is actually pretty powerful, enough so that people almost always overestimate the wind speed. Maybe it's because we often see warnings for thunderstorms with wind of 60 mph that people will think a strong wind must have been 60 mph. Most places rarely experience sustained winds of more than 40 mph, even in a storm. I've had an anemometer for enough of my life now that I've gotten better at estimating wind speeds, but I still tend to estimate wind speed at about 10 mph higher than what shows up on the weather station.


Thanks sar!
Very warm day here with a high of 78. It was also uncomfortably humid. I had to drive to Montgomery for a doctor's appointment and used the A/C part of the way because I was sweating like a pig. I haven't felt this kind of humidity for a couple of months. It has certainly been better for my nose than all the dry air we've been having. There were a few showers on the way back, and the humidity was so high that a strange kind of ground fog formed right after the rain stopped. It was like the ones you see in horror movies. A clear view of the sky straight up but only a couple of hundred feet visibility horizontal. It was thick enough I had to use the wipers and get the windshield all smeary. Down to 62 now as the showers have moved on but still 99% humidity. It didn't take much instability to kick off the showers today, and there was even some decent vertical development to them. Might play a role in the severe weather threat for tomorrow if this keeps up.
NWS NOLA/SLIDELL discussion for tomorrow's severe threat, a lengthy one

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans la
447 PM CST Monday Feb 1 2016


With a lil Sunday fo'cast for the Major Mardi Gras Parade's Sunday.
110. Tcwx2
Hello Sar. I am from Andalusia. I haven't been on for a while. Glad to be back on.
Quoting 108. sar2401:

Very warm day here with a high of 78. It was also uncomfortably humid. I had to drive to Montgomery for a doctor's appointment and used the A/C part of the way because I was sweating like a pig. I haven't felt this kind of humidity for a couple of months. It has certainly been better for my nose than all the dry air we've been having. There were a few showers on the way back, and the humidity was so high that a strange kind of ground fog formed right after the rain stopped. It was like the ones you see in horror movies. A clear view of the sky straight up but only a couple of hundred feet visibility horizontal. It was thick enough I had to use the wipers and get the windshield all smeary. Down to 62 now as the showers have moved on but still 99% humidity. It didn't take much instability to kick off the showers today, and there was even some decent vertical development to them. Might play a role in the severe weather threat for tomorrow if this keeps up.
A warmer wetter Human induced atmosphere is really flexing that % of Water Vapor increase, like 7-8% for every 1 F increase in Global Avg Temps.

Record Pwats are becoming the new norm, many double the climatological pwat records.
Quoting 61. Grothar:

Hey vis0.............looks like a blob.....but? anything there most likely would drift south.






If we start naming blobs in February we're in for some deep bleep lol

Maybe a more neutral ENSO come the start of hurricane season?


A 5.5-7 inch snow storm is what the GFS shows (for now) These totals will waiver and will either go up or down.
Quoting 92. Grothar:




Wednesday-Thursday is supposed to be a soaker here.

Quoting 104. Tazmanian:




N CA has a cat 5


Smack dab in the middle of winter too :p
Hadn't been looking for a tropical storms to come. This was on the 00Z GEOS-5 run...not sure how many before. Here's the 12z run. It's not exactly a long trough it's attached to.. Looks more like a storm dude playing basketball with maybe future Bonnie.
A Macroburst striked Porto Alegre (Brazil) in the night of January 29th 2016. Winds confirmed is 75 mph, but estimated by damages are +100 mph. Thousand of trees falled in the street, the downtown was smashed. The storm lasted about 1 hour and nearly 1 million people were without power only in the city of Porto Alegre. It rained more than 100 ml will be shown at some points, taking into account that the phenomenon has hit three districts of the capital of Rio Grande do Sul State, Brazil. Hundreds of residents reported feeling their buildings sway with the wind, two malls (the upper class) were severely damaged, hospitals were destelhados and hundreds of glass windows burst into dozens of buildings (including the malls). The city today decreed emergency situation. The supercell arrived around 10:00 PM (local time) and has hit the city center. When the storm arrived, the temperature was about 30 ° C, but in the afternoon we had scorching sun and incredible 41 ° C, the second hottest day of the year so far. On January 25 we had 41,5ºC in the afternoon, in the evening we had a strong storm that was accompanied by winds of up to 70 mph.


Pablo Martins, Canoas - RS, BRA.
Good to hear you are still in one piece.....
pablosyn~ Good to see you. We watched crazy videos of that event on youtube and wundered about you..
119. redux
Quoting 115. Skyepony:

Hadn't been looking for a tropical storms to come. This was on the 00Z GEOS-5 run...not sure how many before. Here's the 12z run. It's not exactly a long trough it's attached too.. Looks more like a storm dude playing basketball with maybe future Bonnie.



can you take my Rorschach test for me next week?
C & N FL are going to get alot of rain over the next week after what was the wettest January's ever.

JANUARY 2016 RAINFALL TOTALS FOR THE FOUR PRIMARY CLIMATE SITES
ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA ARE AS FOLLOWS (RANKINGS PROVIDED IF IN
THE TOP 10):


-DAYTONA BEACH RECEIVED 7.05 INCHES OF RAIN FOR THE MONTH, WHICH WAS
4.31 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL.
THIS RANKS AS THE 3RD WETTEST JANUARY ON
RECORD FOR THIS SITE. THE WETTEST JANUARY ON RECORD FOR DAYTONA
BEACH IS 7.16 INCHES SET IN 1986. RECORDS FOR THIS SITE GO BACK TO
1923.

-ORLANDO RECEIVED 5.65 INCHES OF RAIN FOR THE MONTH, WHICH WAS 3.30
INCHES ABOVE NORMAL. THIS RANKS AS THE 10TH WETTEST JANUARY ON
RECORD FOR THIS SITE. THE WETTEST JANUARY ON RECORD FOR ORLANDO IS
8.54 INCHES SET IN 1912. RECORDS FOR THIS SITE GO BACK TO 1892.

-MELBOURNE RECEIVED 7.83 INCHES OF RAIN FOR THE MONTH, WHICH WAS
5.56 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL. THIS RANKS AS THE 2ND WETTEST JANUARY ON
RECORD FOR THIS SITE. THE WETTEST JANUARY ON RECORD FOR MELBOURNE IS
8.17 INCHES SET IN 1979. RECORDS FOR THIS SITE GO BACK TO 1937.


-VERO BEACH RECEIVED 9.39 INCHES OF RAIN FOR THE MONTH, WHICH WAS
6.89 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL. THIS RANKS AS THE WETTEST JANUARY ON
RECORD FOR THIS SITE...BREAKING THE PREVIOUS RECORD OF 9.08 INCHES
SET IN 1957. RECORDS FOR THIS SITE GO BACK TO 1942.



COOPERATIVE OBSERVER STATION RAINFALL RANKINGS:
-CLERMONT HAD 7.57 INCHES OF RAIN FOR THE MONTH WHICH RANKS AS THEIR
2ND WETTEST JANUARY ON RECORD.
THE WETTEST JANUARY ON RECORD FOR
CLERMONT IS 9.41 INCHES SET IN 1986 WITH RECORDS GOING BACK TO 1948.

-DELAND HAD 7.78 INCHES OF RAIN FOR THE MONTH WHICH TIES 1986 AS
THEIR WETTEST JANUARY ON RECORD.
RECORDS FOR THIS SITE GO BACK TO
1908.

-SANFORD HAD 6.09 INCHES OF RAIN FOR THE MONTH WHICH RANKS AS THEIR
2ND WETTEST JANUARY ON RECORD
. THE WETTEST JANUARY ON RECORD FOR
SANFORD IS 6.68 INCHES SET IN 1964 WITH RECORDS GOING BACK TO 1948.


-TITUSVILLE HAD 6.89 INCHES OF RAIN FOR THE MONTH WHICH RANKS AS
THEIR 3RD WETTEST JANUARY ON RECORD.
THE WETTEST JANUARY ON RECORD
FOR TITUSVILLE IS 8.83 INCHES SET IN 1912 WITH RECORDS GOING BACK TO
1901.

-FORT PIERCE HAD 11.56 INCHES OF RAIN FOR THE MONTH WHICH RANKS AS
THEIR 2ND WETTEST JANUARY ON RECORD.
THE WETTEST JANUARY ON RECORD
FOR FORT PIERCE IS 13.56 INCHES SET IN 2014 WITH RECORDS GOING BACK
TO 1901.


-STUART HAD 9.45 INCHES OF RAIN FOR THE MONTH WHICH RANKS AS THEIR
4TH WETTEST JANUARY ON RECORD.
THE WETTEST JANUARY ON RECORD FOR
STUART IS 11.44 INCHES SET IN 1993 WITH RECORDS GOING BACK TO 1935
Thanks for the shoutout Bob, I sincerely appreciate it. :)



Came across this lightning strike video on the Houston Chronicle.

http://www.chron.com/news/nation-world/article/Vi deo-Australian-men-react-appropriately-to-6799143. php

Quoting 101. jeffs713:


Gro... I know you've seen this area 10,000 times in your life, but context? Where is this highly disorganized mass of thunderstorms that is very unlikely to develop into anything worth noting considering it is the beginning of February?


Sorry, Old Gro doesn't say much anymore. Here is a better perspective.

Quoting 77. washingtonian115:




AND SO IT BEGINS!!
I'm so glad these people follow this blog :)

Quoting 121. StormTrackerScott:

C & N FL are going to get alot of rain over the next week after what was the wettest January's ever.




Yep last several systems have been focused over south FL, but despite that rainfall was still heavy in Central Florida. Looks like all the drenching will be focused in Central and north Florida if guidance is correct.

Model forecasts recently are much wetter for this mid week system than earlier runs.
Quoting 100. sar2401:

If you don't see a lot of leaf litter and small limbs down you probably didn't have sustained winds more than 40 mph or gusts more than 50 mph. A 40 mph is actually pretty powerful, enough so that people almost always overestimate the wind speed. Maybe it's because we often see warnings for thunderstorms with wind of 60 mph that people will think a strong wind must have been 60 mph. Most places rarely experience sustained winds of more than 40 mph, even in a storm. I've had an anemometer for enough of my life now that I've gotten better at estimating wind speeds, but I still tend to estimate wind speed at about 10 mph higher than what shows up on the weather station.


Good point, also wind being very chaotic doesn't necessarily deliver all it's force into structures for a given wind speed. It's why if a category 4 hurricane eyewall strikes a region, some buildings will be destroyed, while others minor damage. While some that may account for structural integrity. that only is half the story, often times the same scene can be found among structures of similar design.

It's feasible to get 60 mph wind in one's community, neighborhood, and down one's street and have most of that energy not impact one's personal belongings, while a 45 mph gust could hit the house and belongings such that some are knocked over and the door and windows are hit with it's force head on so that it ends up feeling worse than the 60 mph wind event because of the chaos of wind and how it behaves.

Quoting 129. Jedkins01:



Yep last several systems have been focused over south FL, but despite that rainfall was still heavy in Central Florida. Looks like all the drenching will be focused in Central and north Florida if guidance is correct.

Model forecasts recently are much wetter for this mid week system than earlier runs.

per that chart it looks like a N Florida event at this time despite STS's hopes
Greenery in the "Caribbean desert". Can you believe it ?





Full gallery >> Link
Quoting 128. Grothar:






I want it for me xD
Quoting 121. StormTrackerScott:
C & N FL are going to get alot of rain over the next week after what was the wettest January's ever.

I can't even see Florida on that map.... do we get washed away?
Drip drip drizzle drizzle drip drip drizzle drizzle drip drip well you get the picture, .33" and pretty much 36° all day.

Rayduray2013, just cought your question about the cost of my 85 seedlings, $150. They are really little 1'-2' but I have had really good success rate with them and they grow fast (when the critters dont over prune them).
Check out whatcomcd.org/plant-sale Link

Swflurker, pretty funny if 10 grand fir were 10000 fir trees that would be quite the christmas tree patch. :-) My dad has a hobby tree farm and I think he has about 1500 trees on 1.5 acres. I guess I could have specified that I will be getting 10 Abies grandis.
Quoting 136. plantmoretrees:

Drip drip drizzle drizzle drip drip drizzle drizzle drip drip well you get the picture, .33" and pretty much 36° all day.

Rayduray2013, just cought your question about the cost of my 85 seedlings, $150. They are really little 1'-2' but I have had really good success rate with them and they grow fast (when the critters dont over prune them).
Check out whatcomcd.org/plant-sale Link

Swflurker, pretty funny if 10 grand fir were 10000 fir trees that would be quite the christmas tree patch. :-) My dad has a hobby tree farm and I think he has about 1500 trees on 1.5 acres. I guess I could have specified that I will be getting 10 Abies grandis.


Where do you live?
Quoting 133. CaribBoy:

Greenery in the "Caribbean desert". Can you believe it ?





Full gallery >> Link



Since when was it a desert? Aruba is the only place in the Caribbean area that's a desert, but it's unique that way because it's blocked in a rain shadow by tall mountains that jet out on the Venezuela coastline.
I caught my mistake! I was ready to come over and help planting those 10G trees.(LOL)
JMO but I think $150 is a great deal for your seedlings!


Quoting 136. plantmoretrees:

Drip drip drizzle drizzle drip drip drizzle drizzle drip drip well you get the picture, .33" and pretty much 36 all day.

Rayduray2013, just cought your question about the cost of my 85 seedlings, $150. They are really little 1'-2' but I have had really good success rate with them and they grow fast (when the critters dont over prune them).
Check out whatcomcd.org/plant-sale Link

Swflurker, pretty funny if 10 grand fir were 10000 fir trees that would be quite the christmas tree patch. :-) My dad has a hobby tree farm and I think he has about 1500 trees on 1.5 acres. I guess I could have specified that I will be getting 10 Abies grandis.
Exiting stage right.

Quoting 138. Grothar:


Quoting 142. swflurker:

Exiting stage right.




That's actually stage left, swflurker! 'Stage' direction is from the viewpoint of the performer on the stage looking out at the audience. ;)
Quoting 139. Jedkins01:

Where do you live?

Not to answer for plantmoretrees but the Whatcom Conservation District (where the link points) is in Whatcom County, Washington. That is the county along the Canadian border from the Pacific Ocean to the crest of the Cascade Mountains.
Quoting 108. sar2401:

Very warm day here with a high of 78. It was also uncomfortably humid. I had to drive to Montgomery for a doctor's appointment and used the A/C part of the way because I was sweating like a pig. I haven't felt this kind of humidity for a couple of months. It has certainly been better for my nose than all the dry air we've been having. There were a few showers on the way back, and the humidity was so high that a strange kind of ground fog formed right after the rain stopped. It was like the ones you see in horror movies. A clear view of the sky straight up but only a couple of hundred feet visibility horizontal. It was thick enough I had to use the wipers and get the windshield all smeary. Down to 62 now as the showers have moved on but still 99% humidity. It didn't take much instability to kick off the showers today, and there was even some decent vertical development to them. Might play a role in the severe weather threat for tomorrow if this keeps up.

I had an experience like that. It was a very humid day, especially for Western Oregon and we did a raft trip on the McKenzie River near Eugene. The water was cold enough that it caused a 4 or 5 foot layer of fog on the river. It was clear and sunny straight up and raising my arm up from my seat at the helm of my raft it was much warmer on my hand than on my body. Like you say the fog was thick enough it was hard to see more than 60 or 80 feet downriver. That caused some problems maneuvering the rock garden rapids. It was a strange day.
My roommate is stuck in Wyoming do to I-80 shutdown. Snow accumulations are not very significant not is the wind blowing that much. It's unbelievable that this nation was settled by wagon, horse, and walking. Yet today the government will not let you drive on a highway where you can see the pavement. Anyone wanting the government to tell them what to do should sign a waiver giving up their liberties and leave those of us wishing to keep our liberty alone.
Not as wet in north Florida as further south.

Gainesville had a little over 2.5 inches for January while Ocala 40 miles to the south had almost 6 inches.

Maybe this next front will bring the rain further north.
148. MahFL
Some places in CA got 250% of their normal rainfall in January.
149. MahFL
Quoting 146. Misogynist:

My roommate is stuck in Wyoming do to I-80 shutdown. Snow accumulations are not very significant not is the wind blowing that much. It's unbelievable that this nation was settled by wagon, horse, and walking. Yet today the government will not let you drive on a highway where you can see the pavement. Anyone wanting the government to tell them what to do should sign a waiver giving up their liberties and leave those of us wishing to keep our liberty alone.


Further east they do have blizzard conditions, that's probably why they closed down the freeway.

Your point about the road surface being visible is fair :

Quoting 116. pablosyn:

A Macroburst striked Porto Alegre (Brazil) in the night of January 29th 2016. Winds confirmed is 75 mph, but estimated by damages are +100 mph. ...

Thank you very much for your report which is very appreciated, Pablo! Glad you are okay. There are still no news reports in English available about this severe weather event in Porto Alegre; most of the English news from the South American continent these days are about the dreadful Zika virus ....

BBC got a report with very colorful photos of the nacreus-sightings in the British Isles, connected with storm Henry:


Edinburgh/Ivon Bartholomew (from the article below).

Colourful nacreous clouds spark aurora borealis reports
BBC, 1 hour ago
... BBC Scotland weather presenter Christopher Blanchett said the effects of storms Gertrude and Henry may have heightened the chances of seeing the clouds.
He said: "Iridescent nacreous clouds are as captivating as they are rare.
"These eye-catching rainbow coloured clouds form in the Earth's stratosphere at around 70,000ft, way above where other clouds are normally found and in much colder air, around -78C. ....


Crazy weather news from China:
China snow strands 'nearly 100,000' at Guangzhou station
BBC, 45 minutes ago
Heavy snow has disrupted public transport in China, stranding tens of thousands of people outside a rail station in south, police say.
The crowd outside Guangzhou station swelled to nearly 100,000 at its peak on Monday night, police said.
Central China has experienced some of its coldest weather in years.
The rare snow has coincided with the run-up to Chinese New Year - where hundreds of millions of migrant workers travel home to see their families. ...


So far with little time right now. Have a good morning everyone abroad!

Coming Florida Deep Freeze?


GFS AO shows near neutral
and GFS PNA weakening positive, so not buying in yet, especially with the fast southern stream flow.
Quoting 146. Misogynist:

My roommate is stuck in Wyoming do to I-80 shutdown. Snow accumulations are not very significant not is the wind blowing that much. It's unbelievable that this nation was settled by wagon, horse, and walking. Yet today the government will not let you drive on a highway where you can see the pavement. Anyone wanting the government to tell them what to do should sign a waiver giving up their liberties and leave those of us wishing to keep our liberty alone.
Government continues flexing muscle on travel restrictions, testing how many will lie down for it.
Good morning guys

Two things I see

1 possible cold arctic outbreak more so for the mid the east and the south from about the 10th through the middle of the month
2 a possible AOI NE of the NEstern Caribbean we should keep an eye out some models have picked up on this we should truly keep eye on this plus after January's surprise Hurricane Alex not taking any chances
Quoting 151. guygee:

Coming Florida Deep Freeze?


GFS AO shows near neutral
and GFS PNA weakening positive, so not buying in yet, especially with the fast southern stream flow.


I do think this is a possibility and I think this could become one of those cold outbreaks like what we saw in late 2009/early 2010
Quoting 154. wunderkidcayman:



I do think this is a possibility and I think this could become one of those cold outbreaks like what we saw in late 2009/early 2010


WU doesn't show anything yet on the forecast for anything this severe here on the east coast of CFL

2/10 - 44F Low
2/11 - 48F Low
Quoting 146. Misogynist:

My roommate is stuck in Wyoming do to I-80 shutdown. Snow accumulations are not very significant not is the wind blowing that much. It's unbelievable that this nation was settled by wagon, horse, and walking. Yet today the government will not let you drive on a highway where you can see the pavement. Anyone wanting the government to tell them what to do should sign a waiver giving up their liberties and leave those of us wishing to keep our liberty alone.
I lived in Wyoming for a number of years, so I'm very familiar with interstate closures there, particularly the long section of I-80 between Laramie and Walcott people used to call (and maybe still do) the "Snow Chi Minh Trail". The entire section sits at 7,000' ASL plus, and it's mostly unprotected by geography, so it's very exposed to winter weather. And when the highway is open, and unwary travelers fall victim to that weather, others have to endanger themselves to go help those in distress. Now, your roommate is certainly free to exercise his/her liberty and set off on wagon, horse, or by foot--just not on the interstate. But being so big into freedom and liberty and all, he or she probably doesn't want to use some government highway anyway, with its government-mandated speed limits and government-enforced traffic laws and government-installed warning signs and all. Right?
foggy/mosquitos@e.cen.fl
Good Morning. Very active weather today and tomorrow across Conus. Here is the forecast chart and current look: the 3:00 WPC discussion does not reflect the enhanced risk for T-storms issued by SPC for the Tennessee Valley a few hours later around 6:00 am.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
311 AM EST Tue Feb 02 2016

Valid 12Z Tue Feb 02 2016 - 12Z Thu Feb 04 2016

...There is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Ohio/Tennessee Valleys and parts of the Southeast...

...Heavy snow possible from parts of the Central Plains to the Upper Great
Lakes...

...Heavy rain possible over parts of the Lower Mississippi
Valley/Southeast and parts of the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys...

...Heavy rain possible over parts of the Olympic Peninsula...




And finally the National Doppler and high temps for today; that mid-west low is a powerful one based on the loop:

Doppler Radar National Mosaic Loop
Graphic Forecast of Temperatures Across the US from the National Digital Forecast Database

Well, the news is in - Punxsutawney Phil did not see his shadow this morning so all the doomsaying about freakish cold coming in mid February has to be malarkey! After all, who are you to believe - models or Punxsutawney Phil?
It is great to see forecasts of 100% chance of rain several days out. People used to be too timid to say," yes, it will rain." Even though it isn't good math, it does tell people what they need to know. Thanks 100%ers!
Quoting 146. Misogynist:

My roommate is stuck in Wyoming do to I-80 shutdown. Snow accumulations are not very significant not is the wind blowing that much. It's unbelievable that this nation was settled by wagon, horse, and walking. Yet today the government will not let you drive on a highway where you can see the pavement. Anyone wanting the government to tell them what to do should sign a waiver giving up their liberties and leave those of us wishing to keep our liberty alone.
mean ole gubment... how dare they tell me or anyone else that its to dangerous out. if i want to risk my life and then when i get into trouble have others come to the rescue and risk their life and spend countless tax dollars for my rescue then its my business. first they come with their paved roads, then their stop lights and traffic control. freedom is under attack. MURICA WAKE UP
Here are the highlights of the setup for the enhanced risk from SPC as of 7:00 am CST: almost
reminds me of what normally happens in tornado alley in April and May.That is partially a
function of the unseasonable warm temps over that region as the cooler air moves in (enhanced
baroclinic convection) combined with current position of the Conus jet as the result of the El Nino.

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0701 AM CST TUE FEB 02 2016

VALID 021300Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS
MS...AL...TN...KY...AND SRN IND...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE ENH AREA...FROM
THE CNTRL GULF CST TO THE LWR OH VLY...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE ABOVE
AREAS...FROM THE GULF CST INTO THE MID-OH VLY...

...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING WIND AND TORNADOES --- A FEW
OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG --- ARE EXPECTED FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY TO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THE
THREAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY OVER PARTS OF THE
SOUTH.

...SYNOPTIC SETUP...
POTENT KS UPR LOW AND TROUGH EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NE INTO WI BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD...WITH THE SYSTEM DEAMPLIFYING AS IT ENCOUNTERS
CONFLUENT FLOW OVER THE UPR GRT LKS. AT THE SAME TIME...SECONDARY
SHORTWAVE IMPULSE NOW OVER NW MEXICO SHOULD SHEAR ENE INTO TX THIS
EVE...AND INTO THE LWR TN AND OH VLYS EARLY WED...AS UPSTREAM JET
STREAK TRACKS SE INTO AZ/NM.

KS SFC LOW SHOULD FURTHER OCCLUDE AS IT CONTINUES ENE INTO NRN MO
THIS EVE AND TO LK MI BY 12Z WED. ATTENDANT COLD FRONT SHOULD SWEEP
NE INTO THE LWR OH VLY EARLY TNGT...WHILE TRAILING SRN PORTION
ADVANCES SOMEWHAT MORE SLOWLY E/SE INTO SW LA THIS EVE...AND TO NEAR
MOB BY 12Z WED. MEANWHILE...W-E WARM FRONT NOW OVER AR AND THE
MID-SOUTH SHOULD ACCELERATE/RE-FORM NWD THROUGH THE DAY...REACHING S
CNTRL IL AND SW IND BY LATE AFTN...AND CONTINUING NE ACROSS THE
MID-OH VLY TNGT/EARLY WED.

Quoting 146. Misogynist:

My roommate is stuck in Wyoming do to I-80 shutdown. Snow accumulations are not very significant not is the wind blowing that much. It's unbelievable that this nation was settled by wagon, horse, and walking. Yet today the government will not let you drive on a highway where you can see the pavement. Anyone wanting the government to tell them what to do should sign a waiver giving up their liberties and leave those of us wishing to keep our liberty alone.


The government also doesn't allow you to repackage bleach as lemonade and sell it to little kids. But I guess that's big evil government getting in the way of our personal freedoms right?

Just because you can "see" pavement doesn't mean it's safe to drive on. Just last week, an inch of snow and sub freezing night time temperatures turned the DC area into a driving catastrophe. Oh, you could see the pavement just fine. It's the ice you couldn't see that was the problem.

How about a deal. You can go ahead and drive in potentially dangerous conditions as long as my tax dollars aren't used to save your idiotic butt when you wreck, get stranded, etc.
Looks like the FL peninsula is pretty much fogged up this morn


Quoting 147. Wacahootaman:

Not as wet in north Florida as further south.

Gainesville had a little over 2.5 inches for January while Ocala 40 miles to the south had almost 6 inches.

Maybe this next front will bring the rain further north.
this coming front will probably begin in northern florida,wens night and Thursday will possibly be real good rain wise up there..good luck.
an excerpt from the aussie mets from their latest enso update.........


Based on the 26 El Niño events since 1900, around 50% have been followed by a neutral year, and 40% have been followed by La Niña. Models suggest the neutral state is the most likely for the second half of 2016, followed by La Niñ, with a repeat El Niño assessed as very unlikely. Historically, the breakdown of strong El Niño events brings above average rainfall to some-but not all-parts of Australia in the first half of the year.
june model outlooks for 3.4


Quoting 155. olivojoe:



WU doesn't show anything yet on the forecast for anything this severe here on the east coast of CFL

2/10 - 44F Low
2/11 - 48F Low


Well I would expect that forecast to change until we get closer to that time frame maybe on the 5th or so

Quoting 162. LariAnn:

Well, the news is in - Punxsutawney Phil did not see his shadow this morning so all the doomsaying about freakish cold coming in mid February has to be malarkey! After all, who are you to believe - models or Punxsutawney Phil?


Well we know which one you follow ... the hog ... Or rodent ... Or what ever the category groundhogs fall into ;) ;)
as for our favorite model the cfsv2......the last 6 of 8 latest model runs (blue) are under the median average....i would expect to see the median continue to drop....of course as some might point out...it's initializing just a tad bit high as the latest 3.4 reading is at 2.5


Quoting 170. ricderr:

june model outlooks for 3.4





Hmm I'm gonna jump on the hangover bandwagon and say near 0.0 or negatives by June
Quoting 146. Misogynist:

My roommate is stuck in Wyoming do to I-80 shutdown. Snow accumulations are not very significant not is the wind blowing that much. It's unbelievable that this nation was settled by wagon, horse, and walking. Yet today the government will not let you drive on a highway where you can see the pavement. Anyone wanting the government to tell them what to do should sign a waiver giving up their liberties and leave those of us wishing to keep our liberty alone.
BLIZZARD!! AFLAC!!
Quoting 172. ricderr:

as for our favorite model the cfsv2......the last 6 of 8 latest model runs (blue) are under the median average....i would expect to see the median continue to drop....of course as some might point out...it's initializing just a tad bit high as the latest 3.4 reading is at 2.5





As I said and saying
By JUN/JUL near or at 0.0 or in negatives
Quoting 175. wunderkidcayman:



As I said and saying
By JUN/JUL near or at 0.0 or in negatives



i believe we'll be seeing some values in the la nina range in june
I have a gut feeling that Scott thinks that the El Niño will make a massive comeback and be as strong if not stronger than what it was back in Nov 2015

I'm sure he would be very disappointed later this year
Quoting 176. ricderr:




i believe we'll be seeing some values in the la nina range in june


Hey I was being modest lol
The real me agrees with you

Calm and clear here in NE Fla; feels like March 30, not February 2nd. (barefoot, tanktop, shorts)

Hope the month is a cool month and not a HOT month.
Enhanced risk expanded this morning for today



Quoting 172. ricderr:

as for our favorite model the cfsv2......the last 6 of 8 latest model runs (blue) are under the median average....i would expect to see the median continue to drop....of course as some might point out...it's initializing just a tad bit high as the latest 3.4 reading is at 2.5



That's a massive sst crash, i don't trust this with so much warm water everywhere on the Pacific.
Quoting 171. wunderkidcayman:

Well we know which one you follow ... the hog ... Or rodent ... Or what ever the category groundhogs fall into
Oh, you're just jealous because there aren't any groundhogs in The Caymans. They are rodents, and basically giant, really mean squirrels. We have them here in Alabama. They beat up the normal size squirrels when they take a mind to. According to some of our friends that do such things, they are fun to hunt, and you get the equivalent of four squirrel dinners from one groundhog. They are also supposed to taste pretty good, although none of our friends has delivered one fit for the pot yet, and I'm sure not up for ripping the hide off one of those things. Given the vaticinate nature of the monstrous pests, someone in The Caymans is missing a bet. Y'all could train one to predict hurricanes, or maybe ENSO shifts. Then you could haul one out of a box on May 1 for Cayman National Groundhog Day, when tourists season is starting to slow down, and predict something based on the number of cruise ships in port....or something like that. Seriously, why let the States have all this fun?
CFS not as warm for the atlantic.
184. JRRP
Quoting 112. win1gamegiantsplease:



If we start naming blobs in February we're in for some deep bleep lol

Maybe a more neutral ENSO come the start of hurricane season?



Quoting 162. LariAnn:

Well, the news is in - Punxsutawney Phil did not see his shadow this morning so all the doomsaying about freakish cold coming in mid February has to be malarkey! After all, who are you to believe - models or Punxsutawney Phil?


Odd he didn't. It was clear down here in DC and the Punxatawny folks usually scrounge for any bit of sunshine so they can say he saw his shadow and we'll have six more weeks of winter.

Mid February is only two weeks out though and the GFS shows cold but not freakish cold.
Quoting 180. pipelines:

Enhanced risk expanded this morning for today




Expanded a little bit in Mississippi, but nothing very significant. What we'll have to see is where the risk expands or contracts once there are some discrete cells and a squall line. That should start about noon or so.

Quoting 184. JRRP:





That's the one I was looking for, the January diagnostic discussion linked the December one
Quoting 182. sar2401:

Oh, you're just jealous because there aren't any groundhogs in The Caymans. They are rodents, and basically giant, really mean squirrels. We have them here in Alabama. They beat up the normal size squirrels when they take a mind to. According to some of our friends that do such things, they are fun to hunt, and you get the equivalent of four squirrel dinners from one groundhog. They are also supposed to taste pretty good, although none of our friends has delivered one fit for the pot yet, and I'm sure not up for ripping the hide off one of those things. Given the vaticinate nature of the monstrous pests, someone in The Caymans is missing a bet. Y'all could train one to predict hurricanes, or maybe ENSO shifts. Then you could haul one out of a box on May 1 for Cayman National Groundhog Day, when tourists season is starting to slow down, and predict something based on the number of cruise ships in port....or something like that. Seriously, why let the States have all this fun?


We have these giant herbivorous rats in the Mid Atlantic as well. They will dig under and climb over fences. They can be stopped by a chicken wire fence buried deeply and with some slack in the wire so the fence wobbles when the thing tries to climb on it. They don't like the floppiness and stay off it. I have seen them chew through chicken wire though to get to the greens on the other side and when I put my melons under an old guinea pig cage, they figured out how to open the door and get the melons.
Quoting 167. KuCommando:

Looks like the FL peninsula is pretty much fogged up this morn



SE Alabama was really socked in until about an hour ago. Cars in the street in front of the house were just dim outlines until then. A lot of high and broken midlevel clouds with a temperature of 62 and dewpoint of 61. The wind hasn't started to pick up yet, but the breeze feels cooler than I expected. As long as we don't get any clearing today the instability should be kept in check. An hour or two of clearing later today wouldn't be good.
Quoting 153. wunderkidcayman:

Good morning guys

Two things I see

1 possible cold arctic outbreak more so for the mid the east and the south from about the 10th through the middle of the month
2 a possible AOI NE of the NEstern Caribbean we should keep an eye out some models have picked up on this we should truly keep eye on this plus after January's surprise Hurricane Alex not taking any chances


Alex was not a surprise. Forecast models forecast it over a week prior to its formation
2016 will be hotter than 2015 trend is set upward we go till 2020
Quoting 188. georgevandenberghe:



We have these giant herbivorous rats in the Mid Atlantic as well. They will dig under and climb over fences. They can be stopped by a chicken wire fence buried deeply and with some slack in the wire so the fence wobbles when the thing tries to climb on it. They don't like the floppiness and stay off it. I have seen them chew through chicken wire though to get to the greens on the other side and when I put my melons under an old guinea pig cage, they figured out how to open the door and get the melons.
I had to evict a mating pair that got under the house last year. The racket those two created while they were making babies sounded like they were trying to kill one another. Their prefered whoopie time was about three in the morning, and that got real old after two nights. So far they haven't bothered the garden, or at least not any more than the regular size squirrels so. Between Phil and his buddies, the armadillos, they can really do some excavating when they're in the mood for a tasty grub or two.
Quoting 153. wunderkidcayman:

Good morning guys

Two things I see

1 possible cold arctic outbreak more so for the mid the east and the south from about the 10th through the middle of the month
2 a possible AOI NE of the NEstern Caribbean we should keep an eye out some models have picked up on this we should truly keep eye on this plus after January's surprise Hurricane Alex not taking any chances
The NHC isn't rising to the bait on a possible AOI.

THE COLD FRONT EXPECTED IN THE GULF OF MEXICO
THIS MORNING WILL ENTER THE W ATLC THU EVENING AND WILL EXTEND
FROM 32N74W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA FRI MORNING. THE 1016 MB
LOW IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT SE TUE AND WED DRAGGING THE SURFACE
TROUGH S TO THE GREATER ANTILLES. THE LOW WILL DISSIPATE EARLY
THU. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL THEN DRIFT W THU NIGHT AND FRI.
It's going to be partly SUNNY today!!!!!!

::Does happy dance::

Promptly sits down after injury. The high is forecast for 48F and partly sunny. I for one am excited. Of course this means the kids will be distracted by the fire ball in the sky. However, I'll get to use the word "Sunny" for weather "Bingo" instead of "Rainy".

Begins to sing...

"There was a day when it was nice. The weather it was sunny, S-U-N-N-Y ..."

I love it when I'm in charge of the months topic. Guess what it is this month? WEATHER!! Because it's awesome.
Quoting 181. Gearsts:

That's a massive sst crash, i don't trust this with so much warm water everywhere on the Pacific.




true...but in looking at 1997/1998 event....this year in the 10 weeks since nino reached its peak...it has dropped 20 percent......in 1997 10 weeks after reaching it's peak....it only dropped 10 percent
Quoting 110. Tcwx2:

Hello Sar. I am from Andalusia. I haven't been on for a while. Glad to be back on.
Hey, TC, I wondered what happened to you. Did you lose your password? Might be an interesting weather period for us later today and early tomorrow morning.
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...THROUGH TONIGHT.

SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS EARLY AS THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF CENTRAL ALABAMA...WHERE THE GREATEST
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL EXIST. GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF A
LINE FROM SELMA...TO ALABASTER...TO ONEONTA WILL SEE THE BEST
CHANCE OF DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND TORNADOES THROUGH THIS
EVENING. A LIMITED CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS WILL EXIST ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF CENTRAL ALABAMA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
TONIGHT WITH DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS THE PRIMARY THREAT.

THERE IS ALSO A THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT DUE TO HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG A SLOW MOVING LINE
OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

ADDITIONALLY...GUSTY WINDS AROUND 30 TO 35 MPH ARE POSSIBLE
OUTSIDE THE RAIN AREAS TODAY AND TONIGHT.

Quoting 194. Seattleite:

It's going to be partly SUNNY today!!!!!!

::Does happy dance::

Promptly sits down after injury. The high is forecast for 48F and partly sunny. I for one am excited. Of course this means the kids will be distracted by the fire ball in the sky. However, I'll get to use the word "Sunny" for weather "Bingo" instead of "Rainy".

Begins to sing...

"There was a day when it was nice. The weather it was sunny, S-U-N-N-Y ..."

I love it when I'm in charge of the months topic. Guess what it is this month? WEATHER!! Because it's awesome.
LOL. Had a little does of cabin fever, I take it. After spending two of the most overcast and most depressing months in Seattle I ever saw in winter anywhere, I can understand your joy though. There's a reason January isn't a big tourist month there. :-)
Quoting 194. Seattleite:

It's going to be partly SUNNY today!!!!!!

::Does happy dance::

Promptly sits down after injury. The high is forecast for 48F and partly sunny. I for one am excited. Of course this means the kids will be distracted by the fire ball in the sky. However, I'll get to use the word "Sunny" for weather "Bingo" instead of "Rainy".

Begins to sing...

"There was a day when it was nice. The weather it was sunny, S-U-N-N-Y ..."

I love it when I'm in charge of the months topic. Guess what it is this month? WEATHER!! Because it's awesome.


This is why I only made it 7 months in the Pacific Northwest. There was one day I went out and breathed a sigh of relief that it was finally sunny out!!....after about 15 minutes I looked up and realized it was actually completely overcast!! It's just that the clouds were high enough to let some light through!
Quoting 156. Neapolitan:

I lived in Wyoming for a number of years, so I'm very familiar with interstate closures there, particularly the long section of I-80 between Laramie and Walcott people used to call (and maybe still do) the "Snow Chi Minh Trail". The entire section sits at 7,000' ASL plus, and it's mostly unprotected by geography, so it's very exposed to winter weather. And when the highway is open, and unwary travelers fall victim to that weather, others have to endanger themselves to go help those in distress. Now, your roommate is certainly free to exercise his/her liberty and set off on wagon, horse, or by foot--just not on the interstate. But being so big into freedom and liberty and all, he or she probably doesn't want to use some government highway anyway, with its government-mandated speed limits and government-enforced traffic laws and government-installed warning signs and all. Right?
As the saying out there goes, the snow doesn't melt, it just finally wears out. Wyoming winds can wreak a lot of havoc with a couple inches of snow lying about. The issue ends up not being a matter of seeing the pavement, but being able to see any distance in front of your car - a ground blizzard.
Promised you earlier the video report of storm Henry which was made by a German weather reporter for the site of wetteronline.de. Guy has been at the uttermost northwest of Ireland and got some great shots of the wind and waves. Can't help that he's speaking German though :-)



And this of course is always a fancied motive for a storm too: backwards "flowing" waterfall.


Storm Henry closes roads and disrupts rail services across Scotland
Drivers in Scotland urged to take care as high winds bring down trees and cause structural damage to bridges
The Guardian, Tuesday 2 February 2016 09.31 GMT
Storm Henry has lashed Scotland with winds of over 100mph (160km/h), forcing the closure of roads, rail services and leaving 2,000 homes without power.
Scottish and Southern Energy said it had restored power to 9,000 homes, but 2,000 remained cut off after gale force winds brought down and damaged power lines.
Gusts reached 148mph on the summit of Cairngorm and a speed of 100mph was recorded at the Tay Road bridge, Dundee. Winds of 90mph were recorded in South Uist on Monday night, with gusts of 60mph in Glasgow and 63mph in Loftus, North Yorkshire. ...

Partly Cloudy and Hazy - Temperature 86°F - Wind E 5 mph - RH 63%.

Short range models are showing up to or perhaps exceeding 2000J/kg CAPE values in the enhanced risk area this afternoon. That's in the high range of what's been projected over the past several days. Plenty of shear as well, as has always been expected for this event. Good chance of a couple of strong tornadoes in the enhanced risk area before a large squall line develops.
Quoting 198. sar2401:

LOL. Had a little does of cabin fever, I take it. After spending two of the most overcast and most depressing months in Seattle I ever saw in winter anywhere, I can understand your joy though. There's a reason January isn't a big tourist month there. :-)


LoL. The only tourists that come during our winter are from Russia. And yes, I'm serious!

Quoting 199. weesej:



This is why I only made it 7 months in the Pacific Northwest. There was one day I went out and breathed a sigh of relief that it was finally sunny out!!....after about 15 minutes I looked up and realized it was actually completely overcast!! It's just that the clouds were high enough to let some light through!


It's funny, last year around this time I was teaching a class of 18 month olds. The sun came out, and brightly shone through the window. All 12 children stood up, dropped their castanets, and walked to the window. One of them actually said "What dat?" and pointed to the sun. I absolutely lost it. Then it occurred to me, that these children actually didn't remember the sun. For the last time they saw it they were only a few months old...

To be fair, we shouldn't be seeing the sun today. This is thanks to El Nino in many ways. I should be counting down until June...
Below a current airmass shot of a strange feature of somehow cut-off cold air in the northwestern Sahara. The subtropical jet is obviously involved but I'm not the one to explain. Just thought it's nice to look at:



209. MahFL
Lake Shasta rose another 1% :

52% of Total Capacity
77% of Historical Avg. For This Date
We are about to get our 1st Tornado watch(or Severe thunderstorm watch.) issued.
< Previous MD




MD 72 graphic




MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0072
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0954 AM CST TUE FEB 02 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NERN AR...SERN MO...SRN IL...WRN MS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 021554Z - 021730Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SOME UNCERTAINTY LINGERS CONCERNING TIMING...BUT TRENDS
ARE BEING MONITORED FOR INCREASING STORM DEVELOPMENT CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES...WHICH COULD
COMMENCE AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER 17-18Z.

DISCUSSION...STRONGEST UPPER DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID TO
UPPER JET STREAK /100+ KT AT 500 MB/ NOW NOSING THROUGH THE LOWER
MISSOURI VALLEY CONTINUES TO SHIFT TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST OF THE
REGION. HOWEVER...GRADUAL MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS ARE NOW UNDERWAY
SOUTHWARD THROUGH MUCH OF THE MIDDLE TO LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...AHEAD OF APPROACHING LARGE-SCALE TROUGHING.

AS THIS CONTINUES...ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL COOLING...COUPLED WITH
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION...APPEARS LIKELY TO CONTRIBUTE TO
INCREASING INSTABILITY AND WEAKENING INHIBITION. WEAK BOUNDARY
LAYER DESTABILIZATION IS BEING AUGMENTED ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN
ARKANSAS INTO ADJACENT AREAS OF WESTERN TENNESSEE AND THE MISSOURI
BOOTHEEL BY SURFACE HEATING. GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTIVE THAT THE
ENVIRONMENT MAY BECOME INCREASINGLY CONDUCIVE TO BOUNDARY LAYER
BASED STORM DEVELOPMENT. THIS MAY INCLUDE INTENSIFICATION OF AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL BAND OF CONVECTION...AND DISCRETE STORM
DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF IT.

STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS MORE THAN SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED SEVERE
STORM DEVELOPMENT. AND STRONG TO EXTREME LOW-LEVEL SHEAR ALONG A
50+ KT SOUTHERLY 850 MB JET AXIS MAY SUPPORT LOW-LEVEL MESOCYCLONES
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES AND LOCALLY ENHANCED DAMAGING WIND
POTENTIAL. THIS THREAT PROBABLY WILL DEVELOP FURTHER NORTHEASTWARD
WITH WARM SECTOR BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION INTO AT LEAST PARTS
OF THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

..KERR/GOSS.. 02/02/2016


ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...

LAT...LON 36609134 37659086 38438924 37768815 35758943 34779069
35009163 35709161 36609134

Quoting 205. Seattleite:


It's funny, last year around this time I was teaching a class of 18 month olds. The sun came out, and brightly shone through the window. All 12 children stood up, dropped their castanets, and walked to the window. One of them actually said "What dat?" and pointed to the sun. ...

Lol! I better not forward this story to my sister who is going to visit Seattle with her husband this summer. She hates bad weather and always gets a VERY bad mood when rains happen to ruin her vacation. Of course, exactly because of this she avoided Seattle so far, but our so called aunt who is living there for decades, is getting old; so it's about time visit her and their weekend house on Orcas Island (I've already been there in 1990), and hope for the best with the weather.
Quoting 176. ricderr:




i believe we'll be seeing some values in the la nina range in june
I think this Nina will start in mid-summer and continue for the next 2 to 3 years. A Super Nina, may develop in the late fall of 2016, or the winter of 2017 and last thru the 2017 hurricane season. This Nino is over, and will be toast by spring. This coming Nina, may also bring a return to drought conditions to California and the rest of the West Coast by 2017.
Quoting 212. barbamz:


Lol! I better not forward this story to my sister who is going to visit Seattle with her husband this summer. She hates bad weather and always gets a VERY bad mood when rains happen to ruin her vacation. Of course, exactly because of this she avoided Seattle so far, but our so called aunt who is living there for decades, is getting old; so it's about time visit her and their weekend house on Orcas Island (I've already been there in 1990), and hope for the best with the weather.


Seattle is very pleasant in summer.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 200. AGWcreationists:

As the saying out there goes, the snow doesn't melt, it just finally wears out. Wyoming winds can wreak a lot of havoc with a couple inches of snow lying about. The issue ends up not being a matter of seeing the pavement, but being able to see any distance in front of your car - a ground blizzard.


That's one thing that bothers me about calling our east coast snow dumps blizzards. Our whiteouts are nowhere near as bad as what happens in the Midwest and Plains states and people who think 150 foot visibility and 2' of snow (but almost all of it staying on the ground) is bad will be humbled by the less than 10 foot visibilities that sometimes develop in these regions.
Just starting to get the outline of the squall line starting to head East-NE along the tri-state border area in the MS Valley region along with the Gulf flow:

Southern Mississippi Valley sector loop

222. vis0

Quoting 72. HurricaneHunterJoe:

My power cord for laptop is working again.......could not get the power light on it to come on last night after the power surges and bumps....it is now recharging my battery and running the laptop......maybe it has a time cycle to start working again....lol.....anyway if it takes a dump again, I have another on the way for backup as I got a good deal on EBAY at 2am for $8.95.

I live in a valley that comes out of the northwest to southeast/south. I am seeing reports of 50 mph winds in San Diego County from last nights storm. Winds for most of the day yesterday prior to frontal/trof passage were out of the S/SW which is the normal way it works. After passage winds shifted and strengthened out of the W/NW. The front came through my location between 3-4pm and was moving very quickly.31 Jan 3:40 pm 47 41 78 W 20G36 OK

I DO NOT have any expertise with wind speeds and some of you folks will know better. That 3:40pm report above is from San Diego Gas and Electric site that reports to NWS. is in a more sheltered location by the highway within a 1/4 mile of me and the highest gust was only 36mph.
I am wondering if a funnel effect up the canyon, low level jet? The highest winds went on til like 3 in the morningand the sound! Just a powerful feeling whoosh that built up and was pretty loud, I was afraid my glass sliding door might give way. Winds blew chairs and other light/medium weight items over and into exterior wall of my house. Not seeing trees down or branches but the sound! Most bizzare! Sorry for the rant. Happy my laptop is back up and battery is up to 38%!
my caaah-raaazie response + zilly reply at my zilly blog pg .6 cmmnt#296
223. vis0

Quoting 108. sar2401:

Very warm day here with a high of 78. It was also uncomfortably humid. I had to drive to Montgomery for a doctor's appointment and used the A/C part of the way because I was sweating like a pig. I haven't felt this kind of humidity for a couple of months. It has certainly been better for my nose than all the dry air we've been having. There were a few showers on the way back, and the humidity was so high that a strange kind of ground fog formed right after the rain stopped. It was like the ones you see in horror movies. A clear view of the sky straight up but only a couple of hundred feet visibility horizontal. It was thick enough I had to use the wipers and get the windshield all smeary. Down to 62 now as the showers have moved on but still 99% humidity. It didn't take much instability to kick off the showers today, and there was even some decent vertical development to them. Might play a role in the severe weather threat for tomorrow if this keeps up.
i think you got caught on the leeward side of Willie Nelsons bus tour that went back on the road once the sky cleared up...hope this is MOD acceptable, i did include a weather term, pronounced (willywilly) just down under, on the other side.