WunderBlog Archive » Category 6™

Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.

Blizzard of '08 leaves 11 feet of snow in the Sierras

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:12 PM GMT on January 07, 2008

The blizzard of '08 is over in hard-hit California, Oregon, and Washington, but the storm has left in its wake flooding, downed power lines, and prodigious amounts of snow. In the Sierra Mountains, 4-8 feet of snow were common. At the Kirkwood ski resort near Lake Tahoe, an astounding 11 feet of snow fell in just 72 hours--10 feet of that in only 48 hours.


Figure 1. Cleared tracks on the Southern Pacific Railway at Blue Canyon during the winter of 1917. Some of the heaviest snow in North America occurs in the Sierra Nevada Mountains; 60 to 65 feet of snow is not uncommon in a winter season. In: "Monthly Weather Review," October 1919, p. 698. Image credit: NOAA Photo Library.

The massive Tahoe snows from this storm are not a record, however, however. According to Chris Burt's book Extreme Weather, in April 1880, an incredible storm dropped 16 feet of snow (194 inches) in just four days on Norden, near Donner Summit in the Sierras. This stands as the greatest amount of snow ever recorded from a single storm anywhere in the world. The total snowfall that winter at the Summit station (7,017 feet) was a whopping 783" (over 65 feet). An even greater amount was recorded during the winter of 1951-1952 at Donner Summit--815" (over 67 feet). The Southern Pacific Railroad's flagship, the City of San Francisco, was trapped by an avalanche near Yuba Pass on January 13 during that winter. The train lost power, and food for the 226 passengers nearly ran out by the time rescuers arrived. Another bad storm occurred on January 9-10, 1890, when ten feet of snow fell, blocking the rail line and stranding train passengers for days. One of those trapped was New York newspaper woman Nellie Bly, who was attempting to travel 'round the world in 80 days, besting the heroes of Jules Verne's Around the World in Eighty Days. She was forced to detour to the south via the Southern Pacific Railway, and made it back to New York in under 73 days.

Jeff Masters
Pacifica Storm
Pacifica Storm
30 foot waves far off the coast caused a little excitement in the town of Pacifica, just south of San Francisco.
Nice hat
Nice hat
The snow just keeps on coming.

Winter Weather

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

nice "fro" on that birdhouse
Some needs to put an "ice pick" in that bird house's 'fro.
Thanks for the Update, Dr. M. It was certainly an excellent storm to track! The people contributing to this blog with storm stats, links and maps were fantastic!
Thanks to all of you!
Thanks Dr M
Re: fro on birdhouse. I guess the high winds blew away the grass throne.
I missed reading DR. Masters blog over the weekend. Those of us that supplied information on Friday and the threads that followed made tracking the storm very interesting, providing you did not live in those areas.

Had to follow the storm on the TV. Harrisburg is not haveing the normal Farm Show weather this year. Tempertures in the 6os. Have a great day.
good afternoon to all
Tropical Disturbance 07R Update 4

Issued 1200 UTC JAN 07 2008

Tropical Disturbance 07R is centered near 17.5S-56.5E. Movement towards the southeast. Position was based on visible imagery and synoptic reports from Mauritius and Reunion. Surface winds are estimated to be 20 knots based on QuikSCAT, WindSat and cloud motion vectors moving into the system from the south. Estimated surface pressure is in the range of 1007-1009 mb, this is based on 24 hr pressure tendencies from the synoptic reports. Visible imagery showed the center has gradually move under the convective mass. The overall system still remains lop-sided. Wind shear is below 10 knots due to the development of a small upper anticyclonic circulation over the disturbance, whose outflow has skewed convection towards the north. Sea surface temperatures around the disturbance is 85F. The CMC is indicating wind shear should remain low enough for the cyclone to gain some organization in the next 24 hrs as it moves towards the south-southeast.

by W456
Looks rather lop-sided but outside of that has maintain cyclonic curvature

Upwelling off the Coast of Central America

Upwelling occurs where wind forces stress upon the sea surface causing cold water to up-well from deeper areas to the surface to replace diverging water. The below diagram illustrates upwelling along coastal derserts like Chile, but the same idea aplies here.



During the passage of vigrous cold fronts like the one you guys had last week, the associated high pressure builds in behind increasing the wind surge from the north. This surge is then force through the valleys of Central America and as they do so...they amplify in intensity. This amplified wind then blows over the water causing upwelling and sea surface temps to fall. The upwelling can be picked by infrared imagery as cool spots on the ocean surface.



Jan 2


Jan 7




Aloha all!
Here in Bulgaria we had another phenomenium - when the rain go down to the ground it freezing imidiatly.Last days we broke another record after the hottest summer with more - 45* temps,now we have - -32*.With huge snow.The one bulgarian ship crash and died 10 people,only 1 is survived.More than 15 died from freezing and the storm.
Last year we had a huge tornado,in 2006 we had another one and in 2003 we had a huge tornado(i remember - it was F3) in one of the our mauntains.

Very interisting years :( coming for us!!! :\
oh i forgot and last year we had + water tornado and another in one vilage who destroied the houses there
so 2007- 3 tornadoes
petet...freezing rain, tornados, etc are more common in temperate areas. As global warming increases northern regions and regions in higher altitudes will experience phenomena formerly occuring in warmer areas of the planet. Palm trees and orange groves soon in Bulgaria!!!
good day doc cal. to get another 90 cm of snow 1st starting tuse night with the 2nd an final on thurs maybe another 100 cm 2 more storms on the way in total 5 storms in 2 weeks
Tropical Disturbance 07R Update 5

Issued 1600 UTC by W456

Tropical Disturbance is centered near 17.9S-56.6E moving slowly southward. Position was based on infrared satellite imagery, microwave overpasses and WindSAT. Estimated surface winds are 25 knots based on synoptic reports synoptic reports from Mauritius and Reunion and the WindSAT pass. Estimated surface pressure is 1005 mb. Infrared imagery shows the LLCC is tucked under the southern edge of lop-sided convection. The cyclone has developed some good outflow to the north thanks a small upper level anticyclonic circulation over the disturbance. Wind shear is currently 5-10 knots over the system and SSTs around the disturbance is 26-27C. the GFS and CMC takes the low towards the south and eat around the 1028 mb high pressure ridge. This movement may be accelerated due to a vigorous extratropical low-pressure system currently south of Madagascar. It is very similar to an approaching front from the Eastern United States and a tropical cyclone on re-curving edge of the Bermuda High.

by W456

JTWC Stats:

1200 UTC 25kts-1004mb-174S-566E

Microwave Image
afternoon folks
afternoon Bone
Hey 456
Bone, do u know where i can get a satellite loop of the Indian Ocean?. The CIMSS, RAMSDIS, or Navy not working to well.
Weather 456 -Great bit on upwelling, thanks...just here for a quick peek and then back out to the barns. Cold front on xmas eve brought gorgeous waves for surfing in the gomex -- I was wave catching for over three hours. the last cold front was too harsh for me. I am just thawing out today. Such a florida girl. Glad to see my favorites blogging --my season for work (horse polo) is in full swing -pun intended- miss being here, free up in the spring. cheers to all
stormw thanks for the weather updates - having a solid headstart on the last coldfront in SWFL enabled me to prep the horses (coats & bran mash) we like to feed the horses bran mash before fronts as it helps keep the horses from colicking from the extreme change in temperature! Checking in here always give me a jump start!!!! Off to work take care ALL
sorry 456, dont know Indian ocean sat image links.

Glad to hear surfmom!! My gear is stored for the winter. Waters in the 40s and air in the 30s :(
Statistics Based on Atlantic Hurricane Activity Can Overestimate Risk


New research on the link between the formation of hurricanes in the Atlantic basin and U.S. landfall activity suggests that using Atlantic basin hurricane activity as a proxy for landfall activity can lead to erroneous estimates of both landfall risk and potential insured losses, according AIR Worldwide Corp. Researchers found that a higher number of tropical storms in the Atlantic basin does not translate to an equivalent increase in hurricanes or landfalling hurricanes.
AIR researchers found that a storm's genesis location, or starting point, greatly influences its probability of making landfall along the North American coastline. The pattern of hurricane genesis locations changes from year to year and by comparing the pattern for a particular season, such as that of the 2004-2005 season, to long-term climatological patterns, one can better understand why in some years the proportion of storms making landfall is high, while in other years it is low.
"By only focusing on the 2004 and 2005 seasons, it is easy to forget that every hurricane season is unique and actual landfall activity is a function of complex interactions between a range of environmental factors such as genesis location, sea surface temperatures and the depth of warm ocean waters, wind shear and atmospheric steering," said Dr. Peter Dailey, director of research in atmospheric science at AIR Worldwide.
AIR's research can be used to analyze the landfall probabilities of the two strongest storms of the 2007 season — Category 5 hurricanes Dean and Felix — based on their genesis locations. Dean and Felix, which were the only storms this year to achieve greater than Category 1 status, both took southerly tracks across the Caribbean and eventually made landfall along the coasts of Mexico and Central America.
"Contrary to popular belief, the U.S. did not 'dodge a bullet' with respect to Hurricanes Dean and Felix," stated Dr. Dailey. "Based on where these storms formed and how they would track under typical steering conditions, our research shows that Hurricane Dean had a low chance of making landfall as a hurricane and Felix was much more likely to strike the Mexico or Central America coastline than the U.S."
Sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic basin have been warmer than average every year since 1995. However, the percentage of Atlantic basin storms that make U.S. landfall as hurricanes has been below the long-term average of 14 percent in nine of those 13 seasons. In 2007, only one of 15 named storms made U.S. landfall as a hurricane, or less than 7 percent. More significantly, total wind energy in 2007 was 33 percent below average despite two Category 5 storms.
"The seasonal forecasters correctly projected that a higher-than average number of tropical storms would form in the basin in 2007," continued Dr. Dailey. "But it's much more difficult to predict not only how many of these storms will become hurricanes, but more importantly how many will make landfall as hurricanes. Like many past seasons, the 2007 season showed that an elevated number of tropical storms does not always translate to more hurricanes or more landfalling hurricanes. In 2007, sea surface temperatures were not as warm as some scientists expected and significant wind shear suppression by La Niña did not materialize as they had anticipated. Clearly there's a danger in assuming that one or two single seasons are indicative of a paradigm shift in hurricane risk. While 2004 and 2005 were both very active seasons, they were not good predictors of activity in 2006 and 2007."
In addition to a standard view of hurricane landfall risk based on over 100 years of historical data and over 20 years of research and development, the AIR U.S. hurricane model includes an alternative view of landfall risk under warm sea-surface temperature conditions. Under warm ocean conditions, AIR estimates U.S. insured losses to be 15 percent higher than the long-term average. In some areas, such as the Northeast, AIR expects little difference from the long-term average. AIR intends to again submit its U.S. hurricane model for certification under the rigorous standards of the Florida Commission on Hurricane Loss Projection Methodology (FCHLPM) in 2008 for the 12th consecutive year.
Source: AIR Worldwide, ww.air-worldwide.com

Dr.Masters thank you for the amazingly snowy update! And props to the 4-5-6 for the pics!
ok thanks

thanks spg03
However, the percentage of Atlantic basin storms that make U.S. landfall as hurricanes has been below the long-term average of 14 percent in nine of those 13 seasons.

Interesting to say the least... yet another example of why comparing a hurricane season or estimating landfall risk based on 2004-2005 is a very bad idea.
hey bone... its such a nice day!!! I got some windows installed yesterday, did some garden work today...now its lightly raining. Looking at the Models, maybe Sunday we're back to the cold temps?
Above average temps coming this week

Here's a good story about the fallout after the storm...
Some houses flooded and then the water froze!

Check it out!
Link
yea Lake. Weather is wierd. The ground thawed and is all muddy in my yard. Still under construction on my home (didnt think it would take this long).

Looks like cooler temps for the weekend. I have been keeping an eye on the upcoming weeks. Might have one or two major players. 1 around the 14th and again the 20th. According to the models at least
Hope this warmup hangs around so I can get rid of these ice and snow piles.
Nice synopsis Storm,looks like back to the storms and windy weather.
hey NE...I was looking for a snowbank to stick my discarded Christmas treein, and they all melted away.. :(
On the brighter side...it's 60 degrees...
Still under construction on my home (didnt think it would take this long).

people say that a lot about getting construction done...
And here's an article about deadly fog...

Link
Yea Lake I know. But my contractor works slower then molasses during a blizzard :/
35. LakeShadow 7:22 PM GMT on January 07, 2008
hey NE...I was looking for a snowbank to stick my discarded Christmas treein, and they all melted away.. :(
On the brighter side...it's 60 degrees...

Hey,Lake,still have lots of ice in my driveway,hoping the next couple of days will get rid of most of it,but still have about of 8 or 9 inches of snow on the ground.
Here's something you dont' see in the middle of winter very often.


...AIR QUALITY ALERT IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM WEDNESDAY...

THE MASSACHUSETTS DEPARTMENT OF ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION HAS ISSUED
AN AIR QUALITY ALERT FOR SUFFOLK...WORCESTER AND HAMPDEN COUNTIES IN
EASTERN AND CENTRAL MASSACHUSETTS. AN AIR QUALITY ALERT MEANS THAT
PARTICLE CONCENTRATIONS WITHIN THE REGION MAY APPROACH OR EXCEED
UNHEALTHY STANDARDS.

yea NE dont know why NJ hasnt issued yet. The haze was very thick (vis about 5 mile) today. Almost reminds me of smoke down wind from a fire but everywhere you look
wow, NE I hope you get your thaw. My cat is loving the snowless ground. Its a nice break from the frigidness...
Hazy shades of Winter...

LOL.
LOL my cat has been staying on the walkway and driveway, doesnt like the mud :) Dog doesnt care though, shes been rolling around like a pig in it.
Just looked at the globals for a minute and the good old CMC has some company on some type of development out in the central atlantic in the next few days.My best guess at the present time is that if anything does pop the odds of it being pure tropical are very small but what i actually see is something in the shape of baroclinic development.

Here is the link to the 12z CMC and watch the development in the central atlantic pop up.

Here is the 12z GFS at about 90hrs.Weak in nature but its there.



12z Nogaps image

www.AdriansWeather.com
Ahhhh,mud a dogs moisturizing lotion,I desperately try to keep my sheltie away from mud,that would be nasty.
Looks like our winter break is about over.

EAST...
TWO MAJOR SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION. THE FIRST
WILL TRACK WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS DAY 4...AND THE SECOND WILL
PULL ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND INTO THE ATLANTIC DAY 7. THE SECOND
SYSTEM STANDS THE BEST CHANCE OF PRODUCING WIDESPREAD WINTER
PRECIPITATION.
With a NINA here anything it could happen.

Arthur are you there??Could it be......NA.



MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0015
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0147 PM CST MON JAN 07 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN IA..NERN MO..NRN/CENTRAL IL..SRN WI..FAR NWRN
IN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

VALID 071947Z - 072045Z

SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE INCREASING AS UNSEASONABLY WARM/MOIST
WARM SECTOR FUELS SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY ACROSS THIS REGION. WW
MAY BE NEEDED IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.

IMPULSE LIFTING NNEWD ACROSS NRN IA IS LIKELY ENHANCING CONVECTION
DEVELOPING FROM NERN MO INTO FAR ERN IA AT 19Z...WHERE AXIS OF
MODEST MLCAPE IS IN PLACE. MLCAPE FROM 500-750 J/KG IS EVIDENT
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE OR NO CAP OVER FAR ERN IA AND NRN
IL/FAR SERN WI. IN ADDITION...STRONG SSWLY SURFACE WINDS ACROSS THE
REGION ARE MAINTAINING ENHANCED LOW LEVEL SHEAR WITH SFC-1 KM SRH
NOW IN EXCESS OF 200 M2/S2. UNSEASONABLY WARM/MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER
EXTENDS WELL NWD INTO THE SRN GREAT LAKES AND...GIVEN BOTH DEGREE OF
SHEAR AND INCREASING THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...TORNADO WW MAY BE
WARRANTED SOON INTO THIS AREA.

..EVANS.. 01/07/2008
some noteworth volcano news...


Kilauea Volcano- This week marks the 25th anniversary of the current eruption. Its the longest lasting rift zone eruption at the volcano in 700 years.

Popocatepetl Volcano (mexico)- Erupted January 5th. Ash emissions reached 24,000 feet. This is the largest eruption in 7 years. The volcano is currently the highest active volcano in the Northern Hemisphere.

Tungurahua Volcano (ecuador)- Over 1000 evacuated. Ash emissions reached 27,000 feet and satalight images showed a hotspot at the volcano.

Link





URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
155 PM CST MON JAN 7 2008

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS
SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS
PARTS OF MISSOURI

EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 155 PM UNTIL 900
PM CST.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 10 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF
JOPLIN MISSOURI TO 45 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF QUINCY ILLINOIS.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

DISCUSSION...UNSEASONABLY WARM AND MDTLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN PLACE
ACROSS WATCH AREA AHEAD OF STRONG WRN U.S. TROUGH. VERY STRONG DEEP
LAYER SHEAR AS LEAD JET MAX MOVES ACROSS AREA FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELLS. WITH MLCAPES TO 1000 J/KG AND LITTLE
REMAINING CINH...THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN NUMBER AND
INTENSITY REMAINDER OF AFTERNOON. ALONG WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS...TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.



Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
Mod (40%)


Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
Low (20%)



Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
Mod (30%)


Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
Mod (30%)



Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
Mod (40%)


Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches
Mod (30%)


Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
High (70%)



From the Chicago WX discussion this morning at 11:15 I thought it was funny :)

THE FIRST THING YOU LEARN IN METEOROLOGY SCHOOL IS WHEN ALL
THE LINES ON THE MAP OVERLAP...BAD THINGS HAPPEN. THIS CERTAINLY
SEEMS TO BE HOW THINGS ARE SHAPING UP LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. STRONG DEEP OMEGA...NEAR RECORD VALUES OF PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES...MODEST INSTABILITY ALL POINTING TOWARD THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. IN FACT...HPC`S EXPERIMENTAL
STANDARD DEVIATIONS PAGE REALLY GRABS MY ATTENTION WITH PW`S 4
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE AVERAGE AND 850MB MOISTURE FLUX
CONVERGENCE 6 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE AVERAGE.
Not looking good for the middle of the country.
Looks like its going to be a long night in the upper midwest :(
The NWS here issued a pretty bold statement in their special weather outlook:

EVEN THOUGH WE ARE IN THE MIDDLE OF WINTER...PEOPLE SHOULDN`T LET
THEIR GUARD DOWN WHEN CONSIDERING THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
THE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS THAT CURRENTLY EXIST ARE MORE TYPICAL
OF SPRING...AND THE STRONG AND VIOLENT THUNDERSTORMS WHICH
ACCOMPANY THAT TIME PERIOD. IT SHOULD BE NOTED...THAT SOME OF THE
MOST VIOLENT TORNADOES THAT HAVE OCCURRED IN THE ST LOUIS METRO
AREA HAVE OCCURRED AT NIGHT DURING THE WINTER
.
you can almost guarantee when you get a huge surge of warm moist air from the gulf,theres going to be a clash of airmasses somewhere.
will definatley be something to watch tonight.

Stay safe STL, keep an ear to the alert radio!
tornadoes in the middle of the night must be the scariest thing.I would have trouble going to sleep at night with those alerts.At least have one those alert monitors next to your bed.
56. MichaelSTL 4:19 PM AST on January 07, 2008

MSTL....are you in the path of any of these forecasted tornadoes?
...A Tornado Warning remains in effect until 330 PM CST for Benton
County...

At 229 PM CST...National Weather Service Doppler radar continued to
indicate a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado 12
miles southwest of racket...or 15 miles southwest of Warsaw...moving
northeast at 50 mph.

The tornado will be near...
Warsaw by 245 PM CST.
Lincoln by 255 PM CST.
Cole Camp by 305 PM CST.

The towns of racket...Whitakerville...Edmonson and Crockerville are

I can't say if I will be in the path of any tornadoes until they occur (and only a few minutes before as well), but I am right in the middle of the tornado risk:

CMC....96 hrs

top......zonal shear
bottom......mslp and 925 vort

Images courtesy: E-Wall Tropical

62. MichaelSTL 4:52 PM AST on January 07, 2008
I can't say if I will be in the path of any tornadoes until they occur (and only a few minutes before as well), but I am right in the middle of the tornado risk:


ok....stay safe....sorry to say...but i wud take a hurricane over a tornado any day. With a hurricane i have days of warning.
ok here is one for ya'll. Just came across it so sorry in advance if you have seen it.

Good luck Michael :)
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO 258 PM CST MON JAN 7 2008 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SPRINGFIELD HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... MORGAN COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSOURI... * UNTIL 400 PM CST. * AT 254 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS VERY DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED 8 MILES SOUTHEAST OF LINCOLN...OR 9 MILES NORTHEAST OF WARSAW...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH. * THIS TORNADIC STORM WILL BE NEAR... STOVER BY 310 PM CST. 7 MILES NORTHWEST OF VERSAILLES BY 315 PM CST. THE TOWNS OF FLORENCE AND SYRACUSE ARE ALSO IN THE PATH OF THIS TORNADIC STORM.
It seems that the 12z model runs (excluding the ECMWF) all show the development of a surface low in the central Atlantic. While the cyclone phase diagrams show the development of a symmetric warm core structure, sea-surface temperature are on the order of 24 to 26 degrees Celsius which would most likely lead to subtropical or baroclinic development of a low pressure system in that vicinity. The CMC and the UKMET are most agressive with the system deepening the system to 990-1000mb which would be proportionate to a moderate hybrid system or more relatively, a well developed-subtropical storm.
High pressure ridging will remain in control the 3-4 then a deep layer trough should sweep the system out to sea.
UKMET 12z
NOGAPS 12z
CMC 12z
GFS 12z

Another interesting event is the development of a baroclinic low (slight chance of subtropical development) in the Gulf of Mexico the GFS has been advertising for the past few runs. The GFS want to take this low into Florida which should help ease drought stricken areas in the South East U.S.
The photograph is real, no photoshop, no digital manipulation, no nothing, in fact it was shot on slide film Fuji Provia 100 using a Nikon F5 Camera and 17-35 mm lens. For those conspiracy fans who still doubt its authenticity please read how I took the photograph.

To capture this image I tied myself to the tower of the research boat Lamnidae and leaned into the void, precariously hanging over the ocean while waiting patiently for a white shark to come along. I wanted to shot a photograph that would tell the story of our research efforts to track white sharks using kayaks. When the first shark of the day came across our sea kayak it dove to the seabed and inspected it from below. I quickly trained my camera on the dark shadow which slowly transformed from diffuse shape into the sleek outline of a large great white. When the shark’s dorsal fin broke the surface I thought I had the shot, but hesitated a fraction of a second and was rewarded with marine biologist Trey Snow in the kayak turning around to look behind him. I pressed the shutter and the rest was history. Throughout the day I shot many more images, most showing the kayak following the shark, but all lacked the power of that first image of the great white tracking the kayak


heres another...
I wonder if they were playing the jaws theme when they took that picture.
I would have LOL
WOW just took a look at the radar loop of those Tornado warnings. The storm NE of Clinton poped 75+dbz!!! Still many echos in the 65 to 70 range.
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL 312 PM CST MON JAN 7 2008 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... NORTHERN BOONE COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS... EASTERN WINNEBAGO COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS... * UNTIL 345 PM CST... * AT 308 PM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATED STRONG ROTATION IN A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM 8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MACHESNEY PARK...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH. * THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR... ROSCOE BY 320 PM...
Bonedog

scary but aewsome pics



THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

PARTS OF SOUTHEAST IOWA
MUCH OF NORTHERN ILLINOIS
SMALL PART OF NORTHWEST INDIANA
LAKE MICHIGAN

EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 235 PM UNTIL 900
PM CST.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 95 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES SOUTHWEST OF PEORIA
ILLINOIS TO 40 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF MEIGS FIELD ILLINOIS.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 1...

DISCUSSION...WITH THE UNSEASONABLY WARM AND MDTLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS
AHEAD OF COLD FRONT ACROSS WATCH AREA AND THE VERY STRONG SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY NRN IL. IN ADDITION
TO THE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THREAT...A COUPLE OF TORNADOES
ARE LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH THE MORE DISCRETE UPDRAFTS NOW DEVELOPING
NERN MO AND NWRN IL.
I couldn't belive they were real 456. I found them from a link at Live Science. In 2006 they were all the rage in emails and many folks held onto the belief they were faked. But from they website and the discription given one can see they are indeed real.

They can have it!!! No way your getting me in a kayak in front of a Great White or anywhere near one for that matter.
Helen back in things?

Bonedog, just check Live Science.com....seems like a fun site
I can see a few finally saw my post on something popping across the atlantic....
yea 456 i check it daily. There blogs are well written and usually talk about obscure topics not ususally found mainstream.
Yea looks like something come appear.
That would be a very early start to the season lol. During the off-season its seems all the forecasters turn into Avila when it comes to naming these things. So it will be interesting to see if anything gets called.
Right now the upper level winds are highly unfavorable for development however the models show some more favorable conditions above 24N in the central Atlantic over the next few days.
335 PM CST Mon Jan 7 2008


...A Tornado Warning remains in effect until 400 PM CST for northern
Boone and northwestern McHenry counties...

At 331 PM CST...trained weather spotters reported a tornado. This
tornado was located just north of Poplar Grove...or about 9 miles
north of Belvidere...moving east at 45 mph.

The tornado will be near...
Harvard by 345 PM CST...

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 900 PM CST Monday evening for
northeastern Illinois and Northwest Indiana.
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO 330 PM CST MON JAN 7 2008 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ST LOUIS HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... SOUTHERN BOONE COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSOURI NORTHWESTERN COLE COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSOURI CENTRAL MONITEAU COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSOURI * UNTIL 415 PM CST * AT 329 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WITH STRONG ROTATION 8 MILES SOUTH OF CLARKSBURG...OR ABOUT 8 MILES SOUTHEAST OF TIPTON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 60 MPH. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... CLARKSBURG... CALIFORNIA... MCGIRK... CENTERTOWN... ASHLAND...
Tropical Low Helen (05U) (10S) Update 8

Issued: 2100 UTC JAN 07 2008 by W456

Tropical Low Helen centered near 16.5S-143.6E moving towards seems stationary. Position poorly based on the center of the lowest pressure found by synoptic reports and visible imagery. Microwave and the CMC place the center actually along the Coral Sea coast, so there exists uncertainties as to where the center is. It is unsure whether a LLCC exists anymore. Estimated surface winds over land are 15 knots. Higher winds are over the open waters of the Gulf of Capentaria and Coral Sea. Estimated surface pressure is 1000 mb. Satellite imagery and weather radar shows a vigorous convective band is dumping heavy rain from the Gulf of Carpentaria across the Cape York Peninsula and into the Coral Sea. Rainfall estimates measured by SSMI sensor onboard the DMSP satellites go as high as 1 inch per hr. Wind shear above the area is 5-10 knots while SSTs in the Coral Sea are 28-30C. The CMC has the system retrograding back west inland.

JTWC Stats:
1200 UTC 20kts-1007mb-160S-1433E
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 351 PM CST MON JAN 7 2008 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SULLIVAN HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... KENOSHA COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN... THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...PLEASANT PRAIRIE...DOWNTOWN KENOSHA...TWIN LAKES...PADDOCK LAKE...CAMP LAKE... RACINE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN... THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...DOWNTOWN RACINE...UNION GROVE... STURTEVANT... * UNTIL 445 PM CST * AT 350 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A TORNADO 14 MILES WEST OF POWERS LAKE...OR ABOUT NEAR HARVARD... MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH. A TORNADO HAS ALREADY BEEN CONFIRMED IN NORTHERN ILLINOIS...PERSONS IN THE WARNING SHOULD TAKE SHELTER IMMEDIATELY! * THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR... POWERS LAKE BY 405 PM CST... BOHNERS LAKE AND TWIN LAKES BY 410 PM CST... SILVER LAKE AND CAMP LAKE BY 415 PM CST... PADDOCK LAKE AND EAGLE LAKE BY 420 PM CST... UNION GROVE BY 425 PM CST... STURTEVANT BY 435 PM CST...
Tornado Reports (in CSV format)
Time Location County State Lat Lon Comments
2135 POPLAR GROVE BOONE IL 4237 8882 TORNADO REPORTED ON THE GROUND. (LOT)
2140 POPLAR GROVE BOONE IL 4237 8882 PRELIMINARY PATH LENGTH OF 3 MILES. (LOT)
2141 1 E CALIFORNIA MONITEAU MO 3863 9255 (LSX)
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO 409 PM CST MON JAN 7 2008 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ST LOUIS HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... SOUTHERN AUDRAIN COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSOURI SOUTHEASTERN BOONE COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSOURI NORTHERN CALLAWAY COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSOURI * UNTIL 500 PM CST * AT 407 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WITH STRONG ROTATION NEAR ASHLAND...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... CARRINGTON... FULTON... AUXVASSE... WILLIAMSBURG... SHAMROCK... MARTINSBURG...
Any idea when the snow to come back to the northeast? We have had a crazy winter so far with freezing rain and rain. Where i live we have had around 20" total snow fall this winter. At this pace we are in for a very mild winter. This week temps are going into the 50-60's. Is there any cold air in canada making it's way down or not?
88. mikester 10:12 PM GMT on January 07, 2008
Any idea when the snow to come back to the northeast? We have had a crazy winter so far with freezing rain and rain. Where i live we have had around 20" total snow fall this winter. At this pace we are in for a very mild winter. This week temps are going into the 50-60's. Is there any cold air in canada making it's way down or not?


Cold air will return to your region. I suggest you read the Northeast Weather Blog for more information.



URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 3
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
405 PM CST MON JAN 7 2008

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
PARTS OF SOUTHWEST MISSOURI
PARTS OF NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA

EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 405 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CST.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 110 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES NORTHWEST OF GROVE
OKLAHOMA TO 40 MILES WEST OF POTEAU OKLAHOMA. FOR A COMPLETE
DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 1...WW 2...

DISCUSSION...WITH APPROACH OF VIGOROUS TROUGH NOW OVER NM...LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL BACK AND ENHANCE SHEAR AND SUPERCELL POTENTIAL THIS
EVENING ACROSS THE WATCH AREA. CURRENTLY THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
ERN OK IN AXIS OF FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WITH
POTENTIAL OF SUPERCELL AND TORNADOES IN THE NEAR TERM.
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO 414 PM CST MON JAN 7 2008 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ST LOUIS HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... EASTERN AUDRAIN COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSOURI NORTHERN CALLAWAY COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSOURI NORTHWESTERN MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI PIKE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MISSOURI SOUTHERN RALLS COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MISSOURI * UNTIL 500 PM CST * AT 411 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG ROTATION ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 7 MILES NORTHEAST OF MEXICO TO 7 MILES NORTHWEST OF MARTINSBURG TO AUXVASSE...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 7 MILES NORTHEAST OF MEXICO TO 7 MILES EAST OF MEXICO TO 10 MILES SOUTH OF MEXICO...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... LADDONIA... MARTINSBURG... FARBER... VANDALIA... SPENCERBURG... CURRYVILLE... FRANKFORD... NEW HARTFORD... BOWLING GREEN...
GFS 18z
Baroclinic low in the Gulf of Mexico.
New research on the link between the formation of hurricanes in the Atlantic basin and U.S. landfall activity suggests that using Atlantic basin hurricane activity as a proxy for landfall activity can lead to erroneous estimates of both landfall risk and potential insured losses, according AIR Worldwide Corp. Researchers found that a higher number of tropical storms in the Atlantic basin does not translate to an equivalent increase in hurricanes or landfalling hurricanes.

Geez. Ya THINK???

I suppose it's a logical fallacy to assume that increased storms = increased landfalls, especially for people who don't know much about weather. But it does not follow; if there are more accidents on my street, does this mean I will have more accidents?
The CMC and GFS develops a powerful tropical cyclone in the Fiji Area of Responsibility later this weak. The storm is forecast to have some impact on the Fiji Islands.
Tropical Interesting Facts:

Some of the most intense tropical cyclones like those found in the Western Pacific have towering cumulonimbus clouds that can pierce into the Stratopsphere. I use the term "pierce" as some of you may know that the tropopause is atcually an inversion base and acts as seal.
Test Ur Knowledge

African Tropical Waves (not Tropical Atlantic Wave or Eastern Caribbean Waves) are most intense at which levels?

Surface
850 mb
700 mb
500 mb
200 mb

What are the two pirmary factors which causes African Waves?

The monsoon trough and the Tropical Easterly Jet
Potential Vorticity (PV) and African Easterly Jet
Tropical Easterly Jet
African Easterly Jet and Tropical Easterly Jet
Potential Vorticity (PV) and the mosnoon trough
Possible violent tornado headed right towards a downtown area...

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
439 PM CST MON JAN 7 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SULLIVAN HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN KENOSHA COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN...
EAST CENTRAL RACINE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF DOWNTOWN RACINE...

* UNTIL 500 PM CST

* AT 436 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
TORNADO 9 MILES SOUTHWEST OF DOWNTOWN RACINE...OR ABOUT 4 MILES
NORTHWEST OF DOWNTOWN KENOSHA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
DOWNTOWN RACINE...7 MILES SOUTHEAST OF RACINE BATTEN AIRPORT AND 8
MILES SOUTHEAST OF WIND POINT BY 450 PM CST...

THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND LIFE THREATENING SITUATION. THIS
STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG TO VIOLENT TORNADOES. IF YOU ARE
IN THE PATH OF THIS TORNADO...TAKE COVER IMMEDIATELY!
18z Still has the atlantic low though futher weak on this run.As stated before its possible something tropical might get going but iam leaning towards something more in the way of baroclinic development.



Subtropical?
Another factor that may be contributing to the illusion that hurricanes are becoming fiercer and appearing more frequently is that hurricane detection and monitoring instruments improved dramatically during the last century.

What do u guys think?
w456 didn't you ask those questions last year?
I cannot recall Chicago being under a tornado watch in January. Has that ever happened before?
Chicago (KORH) was 64 at 6 PM EST, and where I am was 59 (KSSI)
It very warm here in chicago for the last two days.The current temp is 66. I don't recall it ever being this warm around this time. I hope it last.
104. V26R
WOW!!!
Midwest is really Lighting up now!


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0017
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0509 PM CST MON JAN 07 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...LOWER MI

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 072309Z - 080045Z

CLOSELY MONITORING FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A WATCH ISSUANCE ACROSS
SOUTHERN LOWER MI...AS SOME RISK EXISTS FOR ISOLATED
TORNADOES/DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS SEVERE HAIL EARLY THIS EVENING.

AS A WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO DEVELOP NORTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER
MI...AN UNSEASONABLY WARM/MOIST AIRMASS CONTINUES TO SPREAD
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO LOWER MI.
WITHIN THIS VERY HIGH SHEAR/MARGINAL INSTABILITY REGIME...SUPERCELL
WITH TORNADIC HISTORY ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST WI HAS BEGUN TO CROSS
SOUTHWEST LAKE MICHIGAN EAST OF RACINE. WITH CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
LIKELY TO INCREASE ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MI EARLY THIS EVENING...RUC
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST STORMS WILL BE NEAR SURFACE BASED WHERE
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE UPPER 50S F OR HIGHER...ALTHOUGH STRONG LOW
LEVEL WINDS/TURBULENT MIXING WILL BE A COMPENSATING FACTOR EVEN WITH
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR...HIGHLIGHTED BY
IMPRESSIVE 300-500 M2/S2 0-1 KM...WILL CONDITIONALLY SUPPORT
ROTATING STORMS WITH A RISK FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES/DAMAGING WINDS.
SHORT TERM TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED ACROSS LOWER
MI.

..GUYER.. 01/07/2008


ATTN...WFO...DTX...IWX...GRR...
105. V26R
Meant to include this link too

Link
101. StSimonsIslandGAGuy 5:01 PM CST on January 07, 2008
I cannot recall Chicago being under a tornado watch in January. Has that ever happened before?


Well, anything can happen when it is this warm (second straight day of 73 degrees as well; the mean yesterday was 36 degrees above normal):



RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
0426 PM CST MON JAN 07 2008
...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT ST. LOUIS...
A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 73 DEGREES WAS SET AT ST. LOUIS
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT LAMBERT FIELD TODAY. THIS TIES THE OLD RECORD
OF 73 SET IN 1965.
100. Drakoen 6:54 PM AST on January 07, 2008
w456 didn't you ask those questions last year?


Nope
Michael, yeah St. Louis is (almost) a southern city :) But Chicago is quite a bit further north after all. I know St. Louis has had tornadoes in winter, but has Chicago?
At 21:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression 07F [1007 hPa] located near 18.9S 175.5W is slow moving at the time. Position is FAIR based on Multispectral satellite visible and infrared imagery with animation and peripheral surface observation. Sea Surface Temperatures around 28-29C convection has slightly increased for the last 12 hours, with cyclonic circulation more evident from surface to 250 hPa. Tropical Depression 07F lies in a low to moderate sheared environment with low level circulation center partially exposed.

Global models picking up the system with little intensification and moving the system towards the southwest. Potential of this depression to develop into a significant tropical cyclone with the next 24 hours remains MODERATE.
It's coming down here in Chicago, rain and hail.
The Southwest Pacific Monsoon trough is increasing in activity thanks to measured surges from the Western North Pacific. The westerlies equatorward the monsoon trough have been gradually increasing thanks the passage of strong mid-latitude storms.

by the mosnoon trough currently extends from the SPCZ at 19S-171W along 15S-180 15S-170E 11S-160E and becomes less distinct as it approaches 10S-150E.
Monsoon Trough and 07F






URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 4
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
555 PM CST MON JAN 7 2008

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

NORTHERN AND WESTERN INDIANA
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
LAKE MICHIGAN

EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY MORNING FROM 555 PM
UNTIL 100 AM CST.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS
TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 45 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 55 MILES SOUTH OF VALPARAISO
INDIANA TO 55 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF GRAND RAPIDS MICHIGAN.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 1...WW 2...WW 3...

DISCUSSION...TSTMS IN NRN IL HAVE EVOLVED INTO LEWP-BEARING
MCS...WITH ONE LEWP CREST NOW NEAR CHI AND ANOTHER S OF MMO. GIVEN
EXISTING SFC-BASED INSTABILITY AND STRONG LOW TO MID LEVEL WSWLY
WIND FIELD...EXPECT THESE FEATURES WILL CONTINUE ENE AT APPROX. 50
KTS AND POSE A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND AND POSSIBLY BOW-APEX
TORNADOES. FARTHER N... STORMS CONTINUE TO FORM ATTM IN PLUME OF
SLIGHTLY ELEVATED INSTABILITY EXTENDING ENE FROM FAR NRN IL/SE WI.
GIVEN STRENGTH OF DOWNSTREAM WIND FIELD AND LIKELIHOOD THAT
LAKE-INDUCED STABILIZATION WILL BE LIMITED...A THREAT MAY DEVELOP
FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND/HAIL AND/OR A TORNADO OVER PARTS OF
WRN/CNTRL LWR MI.
I found this on the Chicago NWS site:

January Tornadoes

Tornadoes were reported this afternoon north of Poplar Grove in Boone County and north of Harvard in McHenry County. The National Weather Service has tornado records dating back to 1950. In this 58 year period of record, only one other tornado has ever been documented anywhere in north central or northeast Illinois in the month of January. That tornado occurred on January 25, 1950 at Momence in Kankakee County. It was rated F2 on the Fujita scale. It was a day similar to today with temperatures in the middle 60s. In fact, Chicago set the all time record high for the month of January, with a temperature of 67 degrees, on that date.
W456, i'll link you to my advisor's faq: http://wind.mit.edu/~emanuel/anthro2.htm

we have a paper coming out in bams in february on new work.
thanks
did anyone just watch that supercell move right over springfield missouri?

Oh i hope there wasnt a tornado on the ground that thing moved right into the city
118. V26R
Hey Michael
It didn't take the SPC long to declare that Tornado watch for Lower Michigan
Between 509pm for the MSD and 5:55pm for the Watch!

Man, Oh Man!
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO 641 PM CST MON JAN 7 2008 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SPRINGFIELD HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... LACLEDE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MISSOURI... * UNTIL 745 PM CST. * AT 639 PM CST...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A TORNADO 6 MILES EAST OF FAIR GROVE...OR 8 MILES WEST OF MARSHFIELD...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH. * THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR... CONWAY BY 700 PM CST. LEBANON BY 720 PM CST. THE TOWNS OF PHILLIPSBURG...SLEEPER AND STOUTLAND ARE ALSO IN THE PATH OF THIS TORNADIC STORM.
By BBC News Online Science Editor Dr David Whitehouse

Global warming may not be caused by humanity's fossil fuel emissions, but could be due to changes in the Sun.

Research suggests that the magnetic flux from the Sun more than doubled this century. As solar magnetism is closely linked with sunspot activity and the strength of sunlight reaching Earth, the increase could have produced warming in the global climate. The evidence for an increasingly energetic Sun comes from a new analysis of the magnetic field between the planets, carried out by scientists at the Rutherford Appleton Laboratory, near Oxford, UK.

Solar Wind

This magnetic field is caused by the Solar Wind, a stream of particles given off by the Sun which fills the solar system. The scientists produce evidence that since 1964 the interplanetary magnetic field has increased in strength by 40%. Evidence from before the space age suggests that the magnetic field is 2.3 times stronger than it was in 1901. Scientists do not doubt that the increased magnetic field results from a more energetic Sun. Their problem is that the effect of these increases on the Earth is unknown.

Not our fault?


The research is published in Nature and in the same journal Professor Eugene Parker, of the Laboratory for Astrophysics and Space Research, University of Chicago, comments that it could explain global warming. He notes that the increased solar activity has occurred in parallel with an increase in carbon dioxide in the Earth's atmosphere. And it may not be a coincidence, he says.

Professor Parker suggests that the Sun's increased activity caused the Earth's global temperature to rise and that in turn warmed the oceans.
Warmer oceans absorb less carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. So a warmer Earth has more of the so-called greenhouse gases. Humanity's burning of fossil fuels may therefore not be the cause of global warming.

Perilous plans

Professor Parker adds that that more research must be done about the Sun's role in global warming before drastic action is taken here on Earth. "It is essential to check to what extent the facts support these conclusions before embarking on drastic, perilous and perhaps misguided plans for global action," he says.

Measurements of the magnetic field are not the only evidence for the Sun's variable influence on the Earth. The planet went through a "little ice age" during the 17th Century, at a time when very few sunspots appeared on the surface of the Sun. And the so-called "medieval maximum" was a period of warmer than average global weather in the 12th Century. Astronomers believe that the Sun was slightly brighter at that time.
ok if you connect the storm reports from just north of billings missouri to 1 mile north of strafford to 6 miles east of fair grove the mesocyclone would have moved right over downtown springfield
122. V26R
Guess that EAS Bulletin answers your questions about that Meso Metalica!
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO 649 PM CST MON JAN 7 2008 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SPRINGFIELD HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... GREENE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MISSOURI... * UNTIL 800 PM CST. * AT 643 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS VERY DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR AURORA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH. * THIS TORNADIC STORM WILL BE NEAR... REPUBLIC BY 705 PM CST. BATTLEFIELD BY 710 PM CST. SPRINGFIELD BY 720 PM CST. STRAFFORD BY 730 PM CST. 7 MILES SOUTHEAST OF FAIR GROVE BY 735 PM CST. THE TOWNS OF GALLOWAY...TURNERS AND BASSVILLE ARE ALSO IN THE PATH OF THIS TORNADIC STORM.
124. V26R
Looks impressive on the Lightning Tracker

Link
yeah but was it on the ground in springfield? the storm looked like it could have a EF2+
and they may get hit a second time man southwest missouris on fire tonight
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK 657 PM CST MON JAN 7 2008 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... NORTHEASTERN CHEROKEE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA * UNTIL 730 PM CST * AT 655 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 2 MILES SOUTHWEST OF TAHLEQUAH...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH. * SOME LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...TAHLEQUAH... ELDON AND SCRAPER.
129. V26R
Metallica Look at this link
Im not familiar with the area
Would it be cell T8 or K1???

Link
wrong springfield

springfield missouri thats springfield illinois
131. V26R
DUH
Told you Im not familiar with the area!!!

Sorry
Let me look again
DUH!!!
Slaps Head viciously!!!
lol happens Im not really either i just happen to be very good with maps im in florida never been near the midwest
But Lindenii it may not be our fault for GW but we shouldnt even take that risk since it could be. Burning all those fossil fuels like people eat candy (a lot) isnt a good thing by any means.
135. V26R
Okay looks like Cell L1 is the culprit
But looks like N3 is primed for one
soon also!!!

Link
SW Missouri Is On Fire
Look at all the storms in Oklahoma
139. V26R
Man those storms out over Okla are building fast
and the ones moving Eastward from Ill into Indiana and Michigan seem to be holding their own too
I think the NWS was a little too conservative with this outbreak. They were even watching the possibility of a severe weather outbreak @ 8 days out. I'm no expert, but I think this outbreak should have warrented a moderate risk.

How many tornados do y'all think there will be by the time the night is done? I'm guessin' about 30-40. Storm reports continue to roll on in.

Storm reports... so far!

Current Tornado Warnings
Current Severe Thunderstorm Warnings
springfield just got nailed again
142. V26R
Think 30-40 is pretty conservative
the way things are popping now
Possibly 50-60
The SPC day 2 outlook hasn't been updated either
Still calling for storms in the same area as
today
Some one looks like they dropped the ball on this one
I hope that Springfield isn't the next Greensburg (which also had a very rare tornado emergency)...

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
732 PM CST MON JAN 7 2008

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CST FOR GREENE
COUNTY...

...TORNADO EMERGENCY STILL IN EFFECT FOR EASTERN SPRINGFIELD AND
EASTERN GREENE COUNTY...


AT 727 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR AND STORM
SPOTTERS CONTINUED TO TRACK A LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO
OVER SPRINGFIELD
...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
8 MILES SOUTHEAST OF FAIR GROVE BY 740 PM CST.

THE TOWN OF BASSVILLE IS IN THE PATH OF THIS TORNADO.

IN ADDITION TO A TORNADO...THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE
DAMAGING HAIL UP TO GOLF BALL SIZE.
Strong rotation in a storm in Central Michigan Link
Just heard the tornado warning for that storm on my scanner
grr, double post
there are two storms in missouri that have EYES or they did have eyes
I bet we get an EF4 outta this

thoughts go out to SW Missouri and Eastern Oklahoma
straight line wind to 110kmh very conductive convective zone over lower/mid grt lakes s sw ward extreme
Chicago set a daily record by 6 degrees today, and was 2 degrees short of tying their monthly Jan record.
Storm report from one of the WI tornadoes.



PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
620 PM CST MON JAN 07 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0415 PM TORNADO 3 NE NEW MUNSTER 42.61N 88.19W
01/07/2008 KENOSHA WI EMERGENCY MNGR

STATE HIGHWAY 50 AND COUNTY HIGHWAY O. 12 HOMES
DESTROYED...SOME WITH NOTHING BUT FOUNDATIONS LEFT.
LARGE
TREES DOWN. ONE THREE-FOOT ROUND OAK TREE DOWNED WITH A
SMALL TRAILER WRAPPED AROUND IT.
152. V26R
This is simply amazing that these storms are rotating so far north at this time of year
every single storm is turning into a supercell this just unbelievable
and springfield is getting hit 3 possibly FOUR times by tornadic supercells

I'm thinking 1 EF5 1-2 EF4s and a few 3s 2s 1s and 0s

but i hope im wrong
it amasing 70 degree temp rise from this time last week lots of atomsphere movin around
stand still and behold hes mighty hand
Metallica, please be wrong...
I hope you're wrong too!

The NWS won't rate an EF5 in early January unless there is absolutely no question about it, and they'd probably hesitate to rate an EF4.

Without photos, no one can guess whether the Springfield tornadoes, WI tornadoes, or others, qualify. I've seen reports of houses "blown off foundations" in tornadoes that were later rated EF3, because the houses weren't anchored properly.

I do hope that the absence of fatality reports continues.
A PDS has been issued! The NWS has been WAY too conservative with this outbreak!

Link
well on a brighter note LSU just took the lead over Ohio State

GO TIGERS
Tornadoes in Wisconsin in January! Whoa....
I just heard that they havent begun to tally the inj or fatality reports in springfield yet
LSU ALL THE WAY!!!

Here's a good loop of most of the tornadic storms.

Link
if this is happening in january whats gonna happen from march till june
My question is why the heck did the NWS issue a slight risk? I can see that the extent of today's outbreak was unimagined by every sane person in this world, but the models have been showing an outbreak for 8 days now...

Link
163. Metallica1990 8:20 PM CST on January 07, 2008
if this is happening in january whats gonna happen from march till june


Good question, and one I don't want to comprehend right now...
I wonder why we arnet getting any reports from oklahoma
we should be hearing from springfield very soon they just got hit AGAIN
and all this stuff is moving towards St Louis
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
820 PM CST MON JAN 7 2008

ARC007-143-OKC001-041-080315-
/O.CON.KTSA.TO.W.0012.000000T0000Z-080108T0315Z/
WASHINGTON AR-BENTON AR-DELAWARE OK-ADAIR OK-
820 PM CST MON JAN 7 2008

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 915 PM CST FOR NORTHERN
ADAIR...SOUTHEASTERN DELAWARE...BENTON AND NORTHERN WASHINGTON
COUNTIES...

AT 816 PM CST...WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR AND STORM SPOTTERS
CONTINUED TO TRACK A VERY DANGEROUS TORNADO. THIS TORNADIC STORM WAS
LOCATED NEAR LAKE FRANCIS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH. A TORNADO HAS
BEEN CONFIRMED NEAR WATTS...TAKE COVER NOW!

SOME LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...CHEROKEE CITY...
GALLITIN...SAVOY...FAIRMOUNT...GENTRY...FARMINGTON...SPRINGTOWN...
WHEELER...HARMON...DECATUR...HIGHFILL...ROCKY COMFORT...TONTITOWN...
JOHNSON...ELM SPRINGS...HEALING SPRINGS...SHADY GROVE...OAK GROVE...
VAUGHN...CAVE SPRINGS...SPRINGDALE...CENTERTON...SONORA...LOWELL...
MILLER...BENTONVILLE...BELLA VISTA...ROGERS...MONTE NE...WAR EAGLE...
AVOCA AND PEA RIDGE.

A TORNADO IS ON THE GROUND! IF YOU ARE NEAR THE PATH OF THIS
TORNADO...TAKE COVER NOW!

IF NO UNDERGROUND SHELTER IS AVAILABLE MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON
THE LOWEST FLOOR. MOBILE HOMES AND VEHICLES SHOULD BE ABANDONED FOR
MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. AVOID WINDOWS!

LAT...LON 3620 9389 3618 9390 3581 9481 3615 9480
3637 9458 3649 9408
TIME...MOT...LOC 0220Z 230DEG 40KT 3615 9451

$$





BCS Title Game Update

LSU IS BENDING OHIO STATE OVER LOL

LSU-17
Ohio State-10

17 unanswered points

Keep it in the SEC BABY
UNCONFIRMED REPORT OF A ROPE TORNADO ON THE GROUND AT WEST BYPASS AND KEARNEY IN NORTHWEST SPRINGFIELD

at least its not a mile wide wedge
173. V26R
SPC really dropped the ball on today
How they never saw this coming is beyond me
134. extreme236 1:02 AM GMT on January 08, 2008

But Lindenii it may not be our fault for GW but we shouldnt even take that risk since it could be. Burning all those fossil fuels like people eat candy (a lot) isnt a good thing by any means.


Whats why I drive a Nissan Versa getting 32.6 MPG, verifed on a trip to Orlando just before New Years Day.

With global population at 8 billion and rising, conservation only seems prudent to say the least. We haven't even tounched on how we will feed the masses in the decades to come.

The point of my post is that we need to keep our eye on the ball, which is the weather and scientific analysis. Accent on the word scientific.
and this is nowhere near done this is supossed to persist through tomorrow morning
Hope everyone stays safe
177. V26R
Man this thing is really digging south
Looks like alot of energy up over Ontario as well

Link
i heard a report that a person was killed in webster county
179. V26R
Matallica please spot the States as well
Not sure where Webster County is
Webster is in Ohio? Indiana? Illinois?
my bad its in missouri just east of springfield i think
Total storm reports is up to 126


Link
183. V26R
Taz they upped that link to 132 with 30 Tornados
. V26R yes i saw that they update it this has i post the link
It's just a parade of severe thunderstorms...this is unbelieveable for January
186. V26R
Was just amazed how quickly they updated it
a parade of Supercells
"Media reports suggest that one person was killed in hard-hit Webster County in a mobile home, and many injuries have also been reported."
just saw that on wikipedia
Cool, someone named Metallica1990. METALLICA ROCKS!

Not much for me here in West Michigan, looks like the east siders are having the fun now, most stayed north of me.

Severe weather just slipped to my north, a mesocyclone went RIGHT OVER MY HOUSE WAHOO!!!

Plenty of lightning was seen out my way, but stayed to my north.

Have fun on the east side Jeff, it's a beautiful Bow Echo...
191. BtnTx
Worst thunderstorm/flood I ever experienced in Baytown Texas was in January in the early 90's - we got 18 inches of rain in 4 hours. Fortunately our house did not get flooded, but it was very close! January can be very stormy!
192. V26R
Amazing that the line is holding onto the intensity this late in the day
Looks like some action on the dry line over Western Okla firing up too

Link
its gonna be a LONG night
194. V26R
Im glad Im not out there
Hope those people have their Weather
Radios ready
140 reports of severe weather wind hail tornados
Tropical Depression 07F Update 1

Issued: 0300 UTC JAN 08 2008 by W456

Tropical Depression located near 19.1S-175.2W moving slowly southeastward. Position based on synoptic reports and visible imagery. Estimated surface winds are near 25 knots. Estimated surface pressure is around 1006 mb. Visible imagery showed a well define but expose LLCC. There is 20-30 knots of easterly shear affecting the disturbance and SSTs are 28C. Global models are hinting that wind shear may decrease enough to allow further development.

RSMC NADI Stats:
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07F [1007HPA] ANALYSED NEAR 18.9S 175.5W AT 072100UTC AND IS SLOW MOVING.
I haven't ever seen this before - much less in January:

199. V26R
And that is Michael?
200. V26R
Nasty looking Bow Line approaching Detroit

Link
199. V26R 10:02 PM CST on January 07, 2008
And that is Michael?


Not sure what you mean; have you ever seen a solid line of tornado warnings several hundred miles long before (usually warnings are more broken up along the line)?
202. V26R
Wasn't sure what that graphic was that you posted
Makes sense now

Have to agree with you on the amount of warnings issued
203. V26R
Think that maybe since the SPC dropped the ball on this one that maybe the people in the Local WFOs are picking it up and doing the right thing
205. V26R
HB you're up in Weschester right?
yea, I'm just stunned by this though. I wasn't around during last years outbreak in May. So I've never seen a line like that before.
207. V26R
Really weird to have them so far north this time of year
How'd you like the temps today?
Supposed to hit 66 for us down here tommorrow
Hurricaneblast...several tornado signatures in that line of supercells.
I wonder if this will set the record for the most tornadoes in an outbreak in January. I remember a big one on the gulf coast a few years ago.
Record high of 63 here. quite nice. Here's the line of storms with storm tracks
the record is 102 set in january of 1999. unprecidented outbreak then. this is the farthest north for an outbreak in january though.
Hmmm this one may get close.
213. V26R
They're saying that the energy is supposed to stay to our Northwest from this mess
and we're only supposed to get some rain
Can't see that happening tho with our
Hi Temps due and teh DP supposed to start climbing too, So the moisture is going to be available, just wondering about the instability
214. V26R
Was only showing 30 Tornados as of about an hour ago
Should have gone up by now
215. V26R
Okay up to 31 Tornados with 143 total reports in now

Link
143 severe weather reports now
According to the last thing I've heard from the weather channel, the total is 36 tornadoes with 3 people dead. It's most likely between 40 and 50 now.

We may get a couple thunderstorms but i doubt they'll be severe. I'm just begining to look into non-hurricane weather topics now so I'm a pre-amature.
Even the outbreak last May wasn't quite that extensive or continuous; the worst hit areas were actually pretty localized when compared to the whole area (notice the number of tornado reports and then the coverage on the map).
make it 144
I'm in southern Ontario, Canada here.

Was 60 today, and we have tornado watches out. I have never heard of a tornado watch in Canada in January ever. This could be unprecedented.
tornado in candada in january..that is unprecedented...
152 now
It seems queer to think of tornados in Ontario at all, especially south-eastern Ontario. For some reason I associate them with more western provinces - Manitoba, Saskatchewan, even Alberta.
storm reports 163 now should bottom out at 170 175
appears to be weaking all along boundry except for sw end of boundry
163, 35 tornadoes, 2 fatalities and 7 injuries
make it 167
169
night all


where up to 171 now
The people reporting back at skireport are definitely happy with the snow.

http://www.skireport.com/california/kirkwood/



... A Tornado Warning remains in effect until 330 am CST for Greene
and northwestern Christian counties...

At 251 am CST... National Weather Service Doppler radar continued to
indicate a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado near
Springfield... moving northeast at 50 mph. A strong line of storms is
passing through the Springfield area capable of producing 80 to 100
mph.
Embedded tornadoes are also possible with in this line of
storms.

The tornado will be near...
Strafford by 305 am CST.
Fair Grove by 310 am CST.

The town of Bassville is in the path of this tornado. This also
includes Interstate 44 between mile markers 177 and 200.

In addition to a tornado... this storm is capable of producing large
damaging hail up to Golf Ball size... and destructive straight line
winds in excess of 80 mph.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 500 am CST Tuesday morning
for southern Missouri.

I hope these people are aware of what's happening in the Springfield area, and that they do whatever they can to prepare for this dangerous storm.
Suspect Area No. 1 - Central Atlantic Just North of the Leeward Islands

Suspect Area No 2 Just to the east in the Central Subtropical ATL

Surface Trough

Happy tuesday all
73 F yesterday. Radio calling for a record today.
Stay safe.
A broad 500-200 hpa circulation is supporting a surface trough across the Atlantic between 50W-40W 20N-30N.

Upper level winds are currently 40 knots over the disturbance. SSTs are 24-26C. Troughs at multiple levels indicate the system is not vertically stacked and most of the convection and showers are generated by upper level energy. Furthermore, besides 925 hpa vorticity, there isnt any evidence that suggest a surface circulation just a pertubation within the wind field and pressure zone.

Models continue to show that the formation and deepening of an upper level circulation which will extend to the surface intiating a surface feature by amplifying the surface trough. Most models take the system towards the west or northwest around the Azores* High while briefly intensifying it.. Most models are also in fair agreement that in about 132 hrs the system will be absorbed into a large extratropical storm's cold front.

by W456
Models*

CMC, Navy(NOGAPS) and GFS
Good morning, 456

There's also a little low level vortex spinning just NE of Hispaniola.

If this was August all 3 would need to be watched...lol
sullivanweather, good morning

yeah ur right...

i think we can squeeze out at least one sub depression before June.
Well, it sure feels like spring out there...

I lost 4" of snowpack yesterday and some all-time January records are under threat this afternoon. There's a very spring-like severe weather outbreak over the Midwest and there's two, ehh, disturbances out in the Atlantic.

Lots of crazy weather going around and by early next week there's a chance for a pretty big snowstorm/nor'easter and a potential arctic outbreak by late next week.

How anything can survive being burried under 10 - 16 feet of snow is astounding to me. That doesn't include drifts. I guess that is why I live in Florida.
You could be walking along and just dissapear into the stuff. How a fox could hunt in that is beyond me.
Good morning,crazy weather out there.Atmosphere doesn't know whether it wants to be spring or winter.
243. V26R
Morning NEWX Looks to be another busy day at the SPC if they decide to turn on their computers
They screwed the pooch with yesterdays outbreak

Link
Hey V2,yeh,kind of looks like they were caught by surprise with such a large area.



URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 8
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
835 AM CST TUE JAN 8 2008

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

MUCH OF EASTERN AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS
PARTS OF WESTERN KENTUCKY
PARTS OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI
PARTS OF NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI
PARTS OF WESTERN TENNESSEE

EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 835 AM UNTIL
400 PM CST.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 90 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 65 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF
POPLAR BLUFF MISSOURI TO 10 MILES SOUTHWEST OF EL DORADO
ARKANSAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

DISCUSSION...VERY POTENT SHEAR PROFILES IN PLACE FOR TORNADIC
SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT AS STRONG S/WV TROUGH MOVES TOWARD AREA FROM
SRN PLAINS. CURRENT THUNDERSTORMS WESTERN AR EXPECTED TO INCREASE
IN NUMBER AND INTENSITY ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOS THRU THE
AFTERNOON AS THEY DEVELOP EWD ACROSS MS RIVER VALLEY.
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR 843 AM CST TUE JAN 8 2008 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LITTLE ROCK HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN FAULKNER COUNTY IN CENTRAL ARKANSAS NORTH CENTRAL GARLAND COUNTY IN CENTRAL ARKANSAS EASTERN PERRY COUNTY IN CENTRAL ARKANSAS NORTHWESTERN PULASKI COUNTY IN CENTRAL ARKANSAS NORTHWESTERN SALINE COUNTY IN CENTRAL ARKANSAS * UNTIL 915 AM CST * AT 839 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR JESSIEVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH. * THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR... WYE MOUNTAIN AROUND 905 AM CST... LAKE MAUMELLE AROUND 910 AM CST... ROLAND AROUND 915 AM CST...
Those are some dangerous storms moving through arkansas.
Alright weather experts,

Is it normal to have the surf temperature in S. FL this time of the year at 79 degrees? I went to the beach on New Year's Eve and did not die when the surf touched my feet.

I don't remember the surf temperature being this warm at this time of the year, but in my defense, I don't really go to the beach now that I am not 16.

That's quite a line developing this morning:



251. V26R
Still suprised that the SPC is only showing a slight risk. Think they would have bumped it up a notch just to play it safe after yesterdays screw up

Link
And the midwest and ohio valley are in for a wild day,as well the lower mississippi valley.
when you look at radar,you would think it a little more than slight risk.
254. V26R
Its strange because the DPs are up in the upper 50's to the Mid 60's with most of the stations
that I just looked at from NO NEward
all have high amounts of humidity
so the moisture is available and like you said NEWX
looks like theres a trigger so cannot understand why they are holding back
DISCUSSION...VERY POTENT SHEAR PROFILES IN PLACE FOR TORNADIC
SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT AS STRONG S/WV TROUGH MOVES TOWARD AREA FROM
SRN PLAINS. CURRENT THUNDERSTORMS WESTERN AR EXPECTED TO INCREASE
IN NUMBER AND INTENSITY ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOS THRU THE
AFTERNOON AS THEY DEVELOP EWD ACROSS MS RIVER VALLEY.
It has to be really bad for the SPC to even mention a moderate severe area.
Their scale is very strict about the categories.
It's really not based on the number of storms expected but rather the severity.
Here's a page with some explanations and definitions.
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

MUCH OF EASTERN AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS
PARTS OF WESTERN KENTUCKY
PARTS OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI
PARTS OF NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI
PARTS OF WESTERN TENNESSEE

EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 835 AM UNTIL
400 PM CST.
258. V26R
Where is that from NEWX?
259. V26R
But Vort, didn't yesterdays storms qualify?
normal people aren't expecting a Severe Wx outbreak this time of year, maybe for April on out, But January???
out of the noaa weather center storm prediction page it has all the current warnings
261. V26R
Vort after reading that link for the risk levels, Yesterday should have qualified as a Moderate to High risk,
yet it never made it out of Slight
But Vort, didn't yesterdays storms qualify?
normal people aren't expecting a Severe Wx outbreak this time of year, maybe for April on out, But January???


There was an unusual number of tornadoes yesterday and night I agree.
But the SPC had established the severity of the risk early on and got the word out.
Had there been a rash of EF4 and 5's then it would have been a real foul up.
V2 this a very springlike weather map you see in the country right now
now we need to find out how strong they where i think any where from a strong EF 4 to a EF 5
265. V26R
Was just looking at the reporting page you posted last night Taz and its hard
to determine the strength of them
I guess thats why they send out field
observers to determine from the damage
what the catagory they fall into
266. V26R
Too bad the Gulf Stream can't get its butt
alittle closer to us, man fising would be great right now
267. V26R
Man from the looks from this Looks as if Arkansas and Lower Missouri are in the zone

Link
MIDLAND-BAY-HURON-SAGINAW-TUSCOLA-SANILAC-SHIAWASSEE-GENESEE-
LAPEER-ST. CLAIR-LIVINGSTON-OAKLAND-MACOMB-WASHTENAW-WAYNE-
LENAWEE-MONROE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MIDLAND...BAY CITY...BAD AXE...
SAGINAW...CARO...SANDUSKY...OWOSSO...FLINT...LAPEER...
PORT HURON...HOWELL...PONTIAC...WARREN...ANN ARBOR...DETROIT...
ADRIAN...MONROE
1042 AM EST TUE JAN 8 2008

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DETROIT/PONTIAC HAS ISSUED A WIND
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY.
THE HIGH WIND WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

WESTERLY WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT BEHIND A
STRONG COLD FRONT AND LAST INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. WIND GUSTS TO
AROUND 45 MPH ARE ALSO EXPECTED...WITH PERHAPS 50 MPH WIND GUSTS
OVER THE THUMB REGION.
Tornado Reports (in CSV format)
Time Location County State Lat Lon Comments
1440 1 SE APPLETON POPE AR 3541 9285 TREES AND POWER LINES WERE BLOWN DOWN AND THERE WAS STRUCTURAL DAMAGE TO HOMES. THERE MAY BE INJURIES. THE DAMAGE WAS IN THE VICINITY OF ARKANSAS HIGHWAY 124 AND SIMBA (LZK)
1442 1 W JERUSALEM CONWAY AR 3540 9283 TREES DOWN AND STRUCTURAL DAMAGE WERE REPORTED IN THE VICINITY OF ARKANSAS HIGHWAY 124 AND CEDAR CREEK ROAD. THIS WOULD HAVE BEEN THE SAME TORNADO THAT AFFECTED POPE CO (LZK)
271. V26R
Man these are some pretty high boomers for so early in the morning

Link
The worst last night appears to be in Missouri

4 W STRAFFORD GREENE MO 3727 9319 *** 1 FATAL *** ONE CONFIRMED FATALITY JUST WEST OF STRAFFORD. (SGF)
0034 2 N PURDY BARRY MO 3685 9392 (SGF)
0045 N STRAFFORD GREENE MO 3727 9312 PERSON TRAPPED IN HOUSE REQUIRING RESCUE. (SGF)
0048 3 N MARSHFIELD WEBSTER MO 3738 9291 *** 1 FATAL, 6 INJ *** 1 FATALITY WITH 6 INJURIES AS A RESULT OF A TORNADO NORTH OF MARSHFIELD ON QUARRY ROAD. (SGF)
273. V26R
Yep and looks like Southern Mo in for
it again now!

274. beell
SE AR, NW MS maybe later looks best as a guess
Good Afternoon,

The Central Subtropics are heating up...we have 2 mid-upper broad circulations out there.
Tornado Warning

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

TORNADO WARNING
ARC075-121-081715-
/O.NEW.KMEG.TO.W.0001.080108T1632Z-080108T1715Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1032 AM CST TUE JAN 8 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN LAWRENCE COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...
RANDOLPH COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...

* UNTIL 1115 AM CST

* AT 1032 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING A TORNADO 9 MILES WEST OF
STRAWBERRY...OR ABOUT NEAR CAVE CITY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
LYNN...ANNIEVILLE...RAVENDEN...IMBODEN...BLACK ROCK...RAVENDEN
SPRINGS...PORTIA...DALTON...COLLEGE CITY...POCAHONTAS...ATTICA...
O`KEAN AND MAYNARD.

.IN ADDITION TO THE TORNADO...THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND DESTRUCTIVE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS.

456, models want to develope something out there,but pretty cold waters and lots of shear.
278. V26R
Man NEWX you are right this is a Springtime Map!
Interestingly, when i looked at the the cumulus cloud motions of the disturbed area between 40W-50W...there seems to be a surface perturbation like a trough or open circulation.
277. NEwxguy 12:39 PM AST on January 08, 2008
456, models want to develope something out there,but pretty cold waters and lots of shear.


yeah that is true but wind shear is forcast to relax somewhat so it would be interesting to see if something can survive and spin up.
281. V26R
456 The way tings are happening latly, wouldn't be at all suprised if
something did spin up
both Navy and CMC brings the system to STS/TS status, while the GFS is more conservative with STS/TD status.
i would like something to develop.....right now i'm in a state of tropical depression not only in the ATL but elswhere in the world.
We've hit 60 deg. here,feels so nice
It appears the midwest has calmed down somewhat,but still a lot of action.