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Blizzard conditions engulf Washington D.C. and Baltimore

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 4:05 PM GMT on December 19, 2009

Snowfall rates of 1 - 2 inches per hour combined with strong northeasterly winds are creating blizzard conditions over Portions of Virginia, Maryland, and Washington D.C. this morning, as a mighty Nor'easter continues to gather strength along the East Coast. The surface low will continue to move northeast just offshore the North Carolina and Virginia coasts and strengthen this afternoon, spreading a wide band of heavy snow across much of the Eastern U.S. Washington D.C. had already received 7 inches of snow and Baltimore 6 inches by 7 am EST, with up to 22 inches expected by Sunday morning. This would make the 2009 Nor'easter the heaviest December snowstorm on record in those cities, and the heaviest snowfall seen since the 27-inch dumping during the February 2003 Nor'easter.


Figure 1. Visible satellite image from 10:30 am EST on December 19, 2009, showing the Nor'easter of 2009. Image credit: NASA/GSFC GOES project.

Blizzard warnings are also posted for New York's Long Island and Southeast Massachusetts. New York City is expecting up to a foot of snow, and coastal flooding from a 3-foot storm surge.

Some selected storm total snowfalls (in inches) from 1am Tuesday through 10am Saturday, courtesy of the National Weather Service:

...DELAWARE...
WOODSIDE 9.8
SMYRNA 8.0
DOVER 5.0

...MARYLAND...
HOLLYWOOD 11.0
LOTHIAN 3 SW 10.0
SILVER SPRING 1 ESE 9.0
TANEYTOWN 1 NE 9.0
WESTERNPORT 9.0
ANNAPOLIS 8.8
GLENN DALE 3 ENE 8.5
FREDERICK 8.0
ELKRIDGE 7.5
BALTIMORE 6.0

...NORTH CAROLINA ...
ROBBINSVILLE 12 W 24.0
ASHEVILLE 17.0
BOONE 16.0
EAST MARION 15.0
FLEETWOOD 14.0
WAYNESVILLE 13.8
WEST JEFFERSON 13.0
MARSHALL 7 N 12.0
ROXBORO 6.7
GREENSBORO 4.5

...NEW JERSEY...
BRIDGETON 7.3
HAMMONTON 5.7
ESTELL MANOR 5.5

...VIRGINIA...
GREENVILLE 3 E 22.0
AFTON MOUNTAIN 21.0
COVINGTON 21.0
CHARLOTTESVILLE 15.0
BLACKSBURG 14.2
RUTHER GLEN 14.0
LOUISA 12.3
SHORT PUMP 11.8
NEW MARKET 1 WSW 11.0
MANASSAS 1 ESE 8.0

...WEST VIRGINIA...
MARLINTON 26.0
FRIARS HILL 25.0
WILLIAMSBURG 22.0
GRANDVIEW 21.0
ELKINS 18.0
HINTON 17.0
ATHENS 16.0
BECKLEY 16.0
PRINCETON 14.4
CLARKSBURG 9.0

Tornadoes and flooding rains hit Florida
In Florida, severe thunderstorms associated with the Nor'easter's cold front spawned three tornadoes on Friday. The most significant one was a twister that hit Wauchula in Hardee County, damaging fifteen cars and buildings at an assisted living facility. An EF0 tornado hit southeast Key West and neighboring Stock Island, another tornado touched down near Homestead. None of the tornadoes caused injuries, though two people were injured by flying glass caused by a heavy thunderstorm in North Miami Beach. That city received 14.25 inches of rain in the 24 hours ending at 7am Friday. Heavy rains of up to 13.32" also hit Hollywood, flooding the downtown area and stranding cars.

Copenhagen
Our Climate Change expert, Dr. Ricky Rood, has gone from the frying pan into the snow machine--Ricky is snowbound in Washington D.C.! His latest post, from the Copenhagen Climate Change Summit, called The Party is Over: Copenhagen Devolved presents a fascinating look at what it was like to be at the conference, and what was (and was not) accomplished there. I'll be posting my own summary of the legacy of the Copenhagen talks early next week.

Next post
I'll have another post Monday.

Jeff Masters
pentax
pentax
Over the hills...
Snowy Fingers....
Snowy Fingers....
... on a stand of pines in my backyard. Woke up to about ten inches of snow, this morning. Trying to dig out, may get more snow, today. Can't drive out to find any landscape vista shots, so I'll make do with the neighborhood, for now....

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks Doc!
Thanks for the update on the NE Storm. I want to share a photo of a Sun Halo I took yesterday as the storm approached Harrisburg, PA

I'm in Northern VA and this is easily the heaviest snowfall in December. I'm expecting school to be closed Mon-Wed
How much more snow do you all expect Charlottesville to get? It looks like the radar shows the snow almost done here.
I have a strong hunch the next snowstorm is gonna get blocked from moving north so areas from the plains, the deep south(even the Gulf Coast), Southeast, and mid-Atlantic(if it bombs out the Northeast as well) watch out!!! Though modals have still not reached a consensus, at least the blocking now on top of Greenland will move well southwest by Tuesday(negating any storm systems next week from detouring up to Canada). Who knows, it may just cut through the middle of the country and exit the Carolina's/Virginia while still moving generally to the east.

This is gonna be one heck of a month(after a mild start).
Quoting weatherbro:
I have a strong hunch the next snowstorm is gonna get blocked from moving north so areas from the plains, the deep south(even the Gulf Coast), Southeast, and mid-Atlantic(if it bombs out the Northeast as well) watch out!!! Though modals have still not reached a consensus, at least the blocking now on top of Greenland will move well southwest by Tuesday(negating any storm systems next week from detouring up to Canada). Who knows, it may just cut through the middle of the country and exit the Carolina's/Virginia while still moving generally to the east.

This is gonna be one heck of a month(after a mild start).


25 inches of rain in NOLA,shattering the all time monthly Rainfall record.

With almost 2 weeks to go too.
Link

The above link is to a CNN article just posted concerning this East Coast Nor'Easter.

As a former resident of the NY-NJ Metro area, I implore everyone to stay OFF the streets, highways, unless absolutely necessary. Three people have already died from this storm, others have been rescued by the National Guard.

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. People, 12-22" of snow, with temps of 25-30F, winds gusting up to 40 MPH, wind chills near 5-10F, and whiteout conditions are expected today over a wide swath of the NE and Mid Atlantic. Make emergency management's job easier, STAY OFF THE ROADS, so they can keep main routes open for emergency travel.

Thanks!
Wasn't that mild of a start in Houston!

I hope you're right about the Gulf Coast tho. Snow not rain. We've had enough of that crap.

pretty eye-opening, Bordonaro. Thanks.
Quoting aquak9:
pretty eye-opening, Bordonaro. Thanks.


Your welcome. This is a "Powerful Storm". People do not realize the danger they put themselves in by traveling in WV, VA, NC, MD, DC, DE, NJ, PA at this time. Two to three inches of snow an hour is falling, over portions of DE, MD, DC and VA, the storm off the Carolina coast is intensifying and the winds are going to be howling over the Mid Atlantic into the New England region within the next 6-12 hours. A Hurricane Wind Warning and Storm Warnings are up, for coastal NC up through New England, this storm means BUSINESS.

People who venture into this storm need to do so only if ABSOLUTELY necessary. They need a full tank of fuel, a fully charged cell phone, let someone know when they leave, and where they're going, have high-energy, non perishable food, a flashlight, blankets, and wear their parkas/coats, with gloves/hats and bring a shovel.
Quoting Patrap:


25 inches of rain in NOLA,shattering the all time monthly Rainfall record.

With almost 2 weeks to go too.


Thankfully forecasts are looking drier
10AM CST Surface Map. The pressure gradient is increasing over coastal NC, VA, MD, DE and NJ. Winds this afternoon will be about 15-30MPH, guts to near 50+MH right along the coast. Those high winds will move into NY, LI and New England within 6-12 hrs, BE PREPARED for heavy snow and whiteout conditions.

Quoting weatherbro:
I have a strong hunch the next snowstorm is gonna get blocked from moving north so areas from the plains, the deep south(even the Gulf Coast), Southeast, and mid-Atlantic(if it bombs out the Northeast as well) watch out!!! Though modals have still not reached a consensus, at least the blocking now on top of Greenland will move well southwest by Tuesday(negating any storm systems next week from detouring up to Canada). Who knows, it may just cut through the middle of the country and exit the Carolina's/Virginia while still moving generally to the east.

This is gonna be one heck of a month(after a mild start).


I agree with you I don't see what some of the computer are seeing. 2 much blocking over Canada and Greenland to cut up the middle. We'll see what happens over the next couple of days. The solutions have been all over the place.
Not in a few days because heavy rain and severe weather will happen in Nola on Wed.
A vigorous System that tapped the Atlantic and also..,the track has been perfect for those west of it.

It's beautiful,but beware the conditions.
Stay Home if possible,and enjoy the views.
474
fxus64 klix 191411
afdlix


Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans la
811 am CST Sat Dec 19 2009



Update...
..sounding discussion...


No problems with the flight this morning. Drying trend continues
with precipitable water values down to 0.35 inches. Two small inversions were
noted this morning...one just above the surface and one near
700mb. Winds are out of the northwest near the surface and out of
the west aloft.


98/so


&&


Previous discussion... /issued 256 am CST Sat Dec 19 2009/


Short term...
dry high pressure building into middle America to give a much
needed sunny...cool and dry weekend. Cold air advection should
abate later today with drainage to provide near freezing minima
the next couple of nights in the more interior sections of the
forecast area.


Long term...
cold airmass undergoes modification early next week with return
flow onsetting into the area Tuesday. Stronger warm air advection
should take place Wednesday as deep short-wave trough in southern
branch amplifies over Texas and brings upper dynamics in position
for a risk of surface based severe thunderstorms Wednesday night
into early Thursday.

Strong cold front moves through Thursday to
clear the area for a cold Christmas weekend.
Well, we had a bit of a lull for awhile there, but the snow is really picking up now. Temps are down to about 23. When I ventured out about 9:30, the roads were snowy and a bit slow, but not bad. I did see one yahoo who had spun out and taken out a bus shelter, but otherwise the roads were ok.

By the time I returned home about noon, the roads were just wet, probably because of the amount of traffic out there, and the slowing snowfall.

I'd say we have about an inch so far. But looking at the good Dr's satellite photo, that isn't going to last.
Central VA Snow Totals:

Font Size: December 19, 2009

Here are reported snowfall totals as of 11:30am Saturday morning.

Wintergreen 30"
North Garden 24"
Esmont 23"
Covesville 22"
Greenbrier Drive 22"
Ruckersville - 22"
Nortonsville - 21"
Ivy 21"
Rio Road 20"
Scottsville 20"
Crozet 20"
Afton 20"
North Albemarle 20"
Free Union 20"
Downtown Mall 18"
UVA Grounds 18"
Lake Monticello 18"
Meade Park 18"
Woodridge 17"
Fluvanna 17"

We'll update these totals as new accumulations totals become available.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Latest Comments

Posted by: Anonymous Location: Charlottesville on Dec 19, 2009 at 12:09 PM

ABC stores are open for business today.

Posted by: Ron Location: Ruckersville on Dec 19, 2009 at 12:05 PM

Guys your comment on that we now have only fluries is not right. we still have snow coming down here, not as strong as earlier.

Posted by: Sheila Location: Earlysville, VA on Dec 19, 2009 at 11:49 AM

We are in Earlysville, VA and we have accumulated 21" of snow.


WCAV CBS19 News on Facebook
National AP Video

Pics!!! Wife took some pics while I shoveled the drive way.




Looks like ya got quite a workout lefty,..
Dats deep stuff in the drifts..

WOWSA
Rather ironic that the US East coast is getting snow amounts unheard of for them in blizzard conditions, and meanwhile, here in Southwestern Ontario, there's not even a dusting of snow on the ground.

Perhaps that will change by the time this Christmas Eve/Christmas storm rolls around, and we'll end up getting a White Christmas after all. The 2 models commonly used up here by Canadian forecasters (the GEM by Environment Canada -which I believe is also called the Canadian model - and the NAM by the Canadian Weather Network) are all over the place what southern Ontario is going to get those 2 days.

I will echo what others have been saying; if you don't have to go outside, don't. Blizzards are bad enough for us folks used to them coming through here and there every yr - they are a lot worse for folks who aren't used to them.
Thanks Dr. Masters for the latest update on this historic Nor'easter.

What a wallop this storm continues to be in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. Everyone please be safe and take care who are currently or have been impacted by this winter storm.

I agree with Jeff9641's post about the next in a line of storm systems which will come down the pike around Christmas. I don't the models have a good handle on this and I am inclined to think that the Southern Plains, Gulf Coast, SE US and the Mid-Atlantic could all see major effects on the upcoming system. What is even more daunting is this next system may be as strong or even stronger as this current one right now.

Very interesting pattern right now will make for some great chatter on the blog the next 7-10 days for sure.
OMG Lefty!! gotta laugh myself silly here. Now when I think of Lefty, all I think of is hurricanes. Hot summer, bubblin' SST's...all that Season™ stuff.

So I GOTTA just snort and laugh at seein' Lefty shovelin' snow.

Poor fella's breakin' my heart!
This was too cute to not post...I hope it doesn't get me a ban though...

wow lefty is back
30. P451
Banding features becoming more noticeable on satellite now.





Pressure - 986-988



3hr Drop 5mb+ off of Jersey

My friend is most likely stuck near Highway 77 in West Virginia, on their way to Florida. Any info on how the roads there are doing?


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2261
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1127 AM CST SAT DEC 19 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...VA...WV...MD...DE...NJ...PA...NY...CT

CONCERNING...BLIZZARD

VALID 191727Z - 192330Z

HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES OF 1-3 INCHES PER HOUR ARE LIKELY FROM THE D.C.
I-95 CORRIDOR NNEWD TOWARDS LONG ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON. WITHIN THIS
ZONE...BLIZZARD-LIKE CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE
MEGALOPOLIS.

CENTER OF MAJOR EAST COAST CYCLONE/BOMB WILL MAKE GRADUAL NNEWD
PROGRESS FROM EAST OF VA CAPES TO SOUTHEAST OF CAPE MAY NJ THROUGH
EVENING WHILE UNDERGOING SUBSTANTIAL DEEPENING. STRONGEST
ASCENT...AND GREATEST HOURLY SNOWFALL RATES...WILL COINCIDE WITH
MOST INTENSE 850-700MB FRONTOGENESIS AND DEEPEST DENDRITE GROWTH
LAYER. LATEST NCEP-SREF GUIDANCE THROUGH 00Z SHOWS THESE DYNAMIC
AND THERMODYNAMIC FEATURES WILL TRANSITION ONLY SLOWLY NWD/NWWD
THROUGH LATE TODAY. BROAD AND QUASI-BANDED HEAVY SNOW FIELD SHOULD
GRADUALLY DECAY ON ITS SWRN FLANK...AND DEVELOP/INTENSIFY AND PIVOT
COUNTERCLOCKWISE FROM NRN MD/SERN PA TO SOUTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND
THROUGH LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

SREF PROBABILITY MATCHED-MEAN /PMM/ 3-HOUR SNOWFALL TOTALS WERE USED
TO ARRIVE AT THE 1-2 INCH AND 2 INCH PLUS PER HOUR RATES DEPICTED IN
THE MD GRAPHIC. FURTHERMORE...AS BOMBOGENESIS OCCURS OFFSHORE...THE
INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO STRONG WINDS AOA 35 MPH
FROM DELMARVA NWD TOWARDS LONG ISLAND. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE 00Z
NSSL 4 KM WRF SHOWING MAX 1 HOURLY WINDS BETWEEN 30-40 KTS OVER THIS
CORRIDOR. THUS...CONSIDERABLE FALLING...BLOWING...AND DRIFTING SNOW
WILL RESULT IN BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WITH VISIBILITIES NEAR ZERO IN
THE HEAVIEST SNOW BURSTS.

..SMITH/CARBIN.. 12/19/2009
ALL roads in WV are hazardous! Travel is NOT RECOMMENDED in WV, VA, MD, NC, DE, NJ and PA where heavy snow is falling or has fallen!

This is a DANGEROUS STORM, 3 people have perished, over 60,000 customers near Asheville, NC are in he dark, hundreds had to be rescued by National Guard troops in VA!!
Klaat on Cape Cod

I went to the grocery store this morning to make sure we had food as I'm working now.

People were panicking a little as we've heard everything from 15 inches of snow to just rain. Is the delay of the storm intensifying it or showing signs of weakness? Also, is it getting bumped farther East or still hugging the coast?
Dulles AP has already received 16" of snow

Link below latest snow totals:

Link
We got 7.5" of snow so far here in Breezewood,PA. Local mets think we could get up to a foot before this is said and done.
Quoting klaatuborada:
Klaat on Cape Cod

I went to the grocery store this morning to make sure we had food as I'm working now.

People were panicking a little as we've heard everything from 15 inches of snow to just rain. Is the delay of the storm intensifying it or showing signs of weakness? Also, is it getting bumped farther East or still hugging the coast?


Please read post 32. The storm is intensifying and will move toward New England after midnight tonight!

A portion of the NWS Boston, MA Area Forecast Discussion:

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
***A POWERFUL COASTAL STORM WILL BRING HEAVY SNOW TO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND ALONG WITH STRONG WINDS AND NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS TO
PORTIONS OF THE COAST TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING***

LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL BECOME A BOMB AS
SURFACE PRESSURE WILL DROP TO AROUND 970 MB...AS IT PASSES SOUTHEAST
OF THE BENCHMARK LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. LOTS OF LIGHTNING
IS ALREADY SHOWING UP JUST TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.

ALL IN ALL...THIS WILL BE A PRETTY CLASSIC SETUP FOR HEAVY SNOW
ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. CONFIDENCE IN HEAVY SNOW IS
QUITE HIGH ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE FLY IN THE
OINTMENT REMAINS HOW MUCH SNOW FALLS ACROSS NORTHWEST MA AND
SOUTHERN NH...AND WHERE EXACTLY DOES THE SHARP CUT OFF IN THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD OCCUR. THE 00Z MODEL SUITE HAS TRENDED FURTHER
NORTHWEST AND WE THINK THAT TREND MAY NOT BE DONE. MANY OF THESE
POWERFUL STORMS OFTEN TREND FURTHER NORTHWEST 24 TO 36 HOURS BEFORE
THE EVENT
Holy Hannah! Lefty, that's some serious snow y'all got there. Please don't send it my way.

Looks like about 2 inches here now, and snowing really hard. Winds have also picked up quite a bit.
Quoting Bordonaro:
ALL roads in WV are hazardous! Travel is NOT RECOMMENDED in WV, VA, MD, NC, DE, NJ and PA where heavy snow is falling or has fallen!

This is a DANGEROUS STORM, 3 people have perished, over 60,000 customers near Asheville, NC are in he dark, hundreds had to be rescued by National Guard troops in VA!!


I've posted on my friend's Facebook that the best option once it stops snowing is head west on Hwy 64 into Kentucky, then south on the I-75 all the way to Florida. Is this a viable option?
40. P451
Mount Holly, NJ Forecast Discussion for Central/Southern Inland NJ


.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
BANDED NATURE OF SNOW SO FAR THROUGH THIS EVENT HAS CAUSED WIDE
VARIATIONS IN ACCUMULATIONS FROM TWO TO TEN INCHES ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA WITH KENT DE, CUMBERLAND AND OCEAN
COUNTIES HIT THE HARDEST. THE GFS OVERALL HAS INITIALIZED BETTER
AND VERIFIED BETTER THAN THE NAM WITH THE 12Z SOUNDINGS AND ITS 6
TO 12 HOUR FORECAST. THE NAM/WRF-NMM WAS RIGHT ABOUT ONE FACET,
SNOW IS HAVING A HARD TIME WORKING ITS WAY NORTH AND WE HAVE
SLOWED ITS PROGRESSION FOR THIS AFTERNOON. ALL THE 12Z MODEL DATA
STILL SUPPORTS WARNING CRITERIA UP THERE, BUT WILL HAVE TO WAIT
FOR THE WRAP AROUND SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOSED LOW.

WE LEFT THE ACCUMULATION RANGES AS IS, JUST ADJUSTED HIGHER
ACCUMULATION AMOUNTS INTO THE AFOREMENTIONED COUNTIES THAT WILL
PROBABLY END CLOSE TO 20 INCHES. THERE IS SOME SLEET AND MIXED
PRECIPITATION OCCURRING ACROSS THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND THIS WILL
KEEP ACCUMS DOWN, BUT ALSO FORECAST AMOUNTY ACCURACY.

NICE GRAVITY WAVE BANDED FEATURE SHOWING UP ON RADAR IMAGERY, A
COMMON OCCURRENCE WITH INTENSE STORMS LIKE THIS.

LATE TONIGHT...THE SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF TO FLURRIES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST.


OK, this is my first attempt at a picture post. This was taken about noon, when we had about one inch on the ground.

Quoting klaatuborada:
Klaat on Cape Cod

I went to the grocery store this morning to make sure we had food as I'm working now.

People were panicking a little as we've heard everything from 15 inches of snow to just rain. Is the delay of the storm intensifying it or showing signs of weakness? Also, is it getting bumped farther East or still hugging the coast?

Here you Go.. looks bad for the Cape!!

Blizzard Warning
Statement as of 11:44 AM EST on December 19, 2009


... Blizzard Warning remains in effect from 4 PM this afternoon to
1 PM EST Sunday...

A Blizzard Warning remains in effect from 4 PM this afternoon to
1 PM EST Sunday.

Blizzard conditions are expected for a time late tonight and early
Sunday with heavy snow and frequent wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph
producing whiteout conditions. A few damaging wind gusts to 60 mph
are possible on the cape and islands.

The worst of the snow and wind will likely occur between midnight
and 8 am. Snowfall rates up to 2 inches per hour are possible in the
heavier bands. Considerable blowing and drifting snow is likely.
Scattered power outages are possible.

Storm total snowfall amounts are expected to be 8 to 16 inches.
Lesser amounts are possible over the Outer Cape and Nantucket where
the snow may mix with rain at times this evening... but any mixed
precipitation will become all snow after midnight.

The heaviest snow will pull away Sunday morning but steady snow will
likely persist into early afternoon before ending later Sunday
afternoon.

Travel is not recommended tonight and Sunday.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Blizzard Warning is issued when sustained winds or frequent
gusts over 35 mph are expected with considerable falling and/or
blowing and drifting snow. Visibilities will become poor with
whiteout conditions at times. Those venturing outdoors may
become lost or disoriented... so persons in the warning area are
advised to stay indoors.


Quoting AstroHurricane001:


I've posted on my friend's Facebook that the best option once it stops snowing is head west on Hwy 64 into Kentucky, then south on the I-75 all the way to Florida. Is this a viable option?


Link to current WV Road Conditions. You're friend would be wise to delay his trip until they clear the major roads.
Link
Hi Dr. Masters.

I am curious: is there data available for comparison purposes with regards to the El Niño pattern that existed in the early to mid 1980s? Was there a blizzard in February of 1985 that dumped a lot of snow back east like this one is currently doing?
Quoting Bordonaro:


Link to current WV Road Conditions. You're friend would be wise to delay his trip until they clear the major roads.
Link


That link doesn't seem to work for me because the road colours do not appear. When will they clear the I-64 and the I-77?
28. Aub -- GREAT post! I LIKE that pro-active, can-do, practical stuff that makes the world better for all of us; not the blah blah blah blah blah blah blah -- I mean who cares whatcha' call it, clean up after yourselves, humans!
You won't get banned; if you did, I'd nag Admin. to death...and grandma's CAN do that, you know!

Oh, more than a foot of snow on our grill...just got off the phone w/ friend near Lancaster, PA (after 2 darn hours, my ear hurts). They've got a lot less snow but it was going sideways.

Our snow was doing something I don't think I've ever seen before...coming from both directions and crossing diagonally, sort of like X's. Pretty weird.

Metrobuses were supposed to stop running at 1 pm. Now THAT I didn't expect, and I'm really disappointed. We live 1 block from major drag (although it's pretty quiet on my street). I was really, really looking forward to getting out and having shops to myself! Darn, darn, darn.
Auburn - That is a pretty funny cartoon...
--

All of this talk of snow makes the last 36 hours of rain seem dull by comparison. I didn't have to shvel the rain out of the driveway like Lefty shoveled snow. It is a balmy 70 degrees out right now.

Hi All:

Checking in from East of DC near Annapolis. We have 13-14 inches so far and still piling up quickly! Have all supplies and good to go!! STAY HOME FOLKS!!
In Salisbury(delmarva) Winds shifted from ne to n and temp. dropped from 38 to 32 in approximately 20 minutes.Precip. abruptly changed from rain to snow/sleet. Winds are picking up. Hope storm doesn't stall.
WOW, look at those snow pictures, jerseygirl and leftyy...

cannot believe we are blogging about what could be the biggest December snow storm of the century!

Everyone drive safe if you are in this mess...

and if you have pictures post them.. those of us in the tropics never get to see snow!!!
Quoting AstroHurricane001:


That link doesn't seem to work for me because the road colours do not appear. When will they clear the I-64 and the I-77?


Probably not until mid to late Sunday afternoon.
Just cold and damp here in eastern NC. Checked pressure, and it's 999mb.
got what i wanted...the metro Richmond area had a crazy amount diversity...from 6-7 inches 15-20 miles south/southeast where i am...all the way up to 12-15 inches on the northwest side of the city...we got 90% of our snow last night up until 1-2 am...then it was mostly sleet and little freezing rain between 2-8am... then we had it all switch back over to snow by 8:30...but there was too much dry are and the snow slowly faded...down to just a few flurries now...most of the area roads are still pretty slick...it'll take vdot to get our area cleared completely...everyone stay safe...
This storm is likely to pass us entirely at my location in S. Ontario, but the next major storm is forecast by GFS from December 24 to 31.
Just in case it got lost in the shuffle:

Quoting Feather3:
Hi Dr. Masters.

I am curious: is there data available for comparison purposes with regards to the El Niño pattern that existed in the early to mid 1980s? Was there a blizzard in February of 1985 that dumped a lot of snow back east like this one is currently doing?
The cold front-like feature trailing the system is again crossing the Gulf, into Mexico, and tapping into the ITCZ in the East Pacific. I could be wrong, but I think this is a new trend with any major Gulf Storm in Eastern North America.
I just want some snow in Alabama!!!!
59. IKE
Major system affecting the midwest next Wednesday through Friday according to the 12Z ECMWF.
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans la
1134 am CST Sat Dec 19 2009



Long term...
cold airmass undergoes modification early next week with return
flow onsetting into the area Tuesday. Stronger warm air advection
should take place Wednesday as deep short-wave trough in southern
branch amplifies over Texas and brings upper dynamics in position
for a risk of surface based severe thunderstorms Wednesday night
into early Thursday.

Strong cold front moves through Thursday to
clear the area for a cold Christmas weekend.

Storm is throwing moisture back into VA. Bands are developing from south of Richmond to DC.

Thought we was done here in Louisa, VA And heavy snow bands have developed all around us. It is now snowing hard again.


Quoting IKE:
Major system affecting the midwest next Wednesday through Friday according to the 12Z ECMWF.


What would Southern Ontario get from that storm Christmas Eve/Christmas Day if it verifies: snow or rain?
63. IKE
Quoting stribe37:


What would Southern Ontario get from that storm Christmas Eve/Christmas Day if it verifies: snow or rain?


I'm showing my ignorance...where is Ontario located?
Quoting IKE:
Major system affecting the midwest next Wednesday through Friday according to the 12Z ECMWF.

I'm showing my ignorance...where is Ontario located?


I have the answer: mostly snow, about 30 cm according to GFS and The Weather Network combined forecasts between December 24 and 31. Ontario is north of the Great Lakes.
1982 El Nino pattern dumped snow in the Northern Sierras from October to late April. In the course of that winter. Total snow depth at Lake Tahoe level reached about 8+ feet with snow banks on Hiway 89 at Fanny Bridge close to 12 feet. The snow was up to the basket ball hoop at the next door house where I was building my own house. Snow is coming along nicely this year but the snow depth is about 20 inches at Lake level. Nothing yet to compare to that rather historic period. 83 and 84 were also large depth snow years. So far my experience this year has been more cold than snowy. YMMV.
Quoting IKE:


I'm showing my ignorance...where is Ontario located?


The province of Ontario in Canada :) Specifically, the southwestern part of the province north of Ohio and Lake Erie and NE of Detroit. (I see someone has already answered with a GFS forecast, but I'll still be interested to hear your reply per the European model).
Quoting AstroHurricane001:


I have the answer: mostly snow, about 30 cm according to GFS and The Weather Network combined forecasts between December 24 and 31. Ontario is north of the Great Lakes.


Hmm. Weather Network is currently showing wet snow/mixed precipitation for Christmas Eve/Christmas Day for the London Ontario area.. and only about 1/2 the 30 cm amount you're mentioning (I thought the Weather Network up here used the NAM weather model).
69. P451
Okay, I'm officially in "I will believe it when I see it territory."

The updated forecast via a local met has stated we are now in for 14-22 inches with some isolated amount reaching 30 inches.

Okay, I will say I expect 14 inches. In fact wouldn't be surprised to see 18 or so. But... 22-30 possible? In isolated locations? When I live in the crossroad/bullseye region of this storm's exit point?

Wow. Relative called from SW Jersey. 16" and snowing extremely heavy. So maybe we are in for it. It's all moving towards me on radar.





As of 1 p.m. Reagan National Airport had received 12.3" of snow, and Dulles 16.0". With heavy snow for two hours since, Washington at a minimum will have set a record for the heaviest December snowstorm ever.
Quoting AstroHurricane001:

I have the answer: mostly snow, about 30 cm according to GFS and The Weather Network combined forecasts between December 24 and 31. Ontario is north of the Great Lakes.



On the other hand, the GEM is calling for showers/wet flurries Christmas Eve, and wet snow on Christmas Day.. so the different models don't seem to have agreement yet.
hey SSI- are the airports still open?
Has this storm picked up speed or is it just wishful thinking on my part?
At 12NOON CST, a 984MB/29.06" L centered off the NC/VA coast, moving slowly NNE towards southern New England. PSST, it's gonna BOMB out in the next 12 hrs, forecasted to get to 970MB SE of New England!!

specifically, Ontario is North of Lake Erie, East of Lake Huron, and Lake Ontario is South East. Lots of Lake effect Snow West to East.
so Bordonaro, what does this mean for new england? will they just shut everything down, or are they prepared for this?

is this normal for them?
Quoting klaatuborada:
Has this storm picked up speed or is it just wishful thinking on my part?

Sorry wishful thinking!!
I haven't checked aqua, but with 13" at National, and 16" at Dulles a couple hours ago, I think they are closed.
It will be interesting to see how low the barometer gets at Nantucket (KACK)
I'm on Cape Cod and I know how these storms go. Firstly I want to ask, is this storm looking to jog more east or more west, as that small detail will change everything, especially where I live.
Reagan National Airport is completely shut down.
Quoting aquak9:
so Bordonaro, what does this mean for new england? will they just shut everything down, or are they prepared for this?

is this normal for them?


The Cape and surrounding islands get 60MPH wind gusts, 7-14" of snow and Blizzard Condition for about 12 hrs. Looks like the worst weather will pass JUST south of Boston, MA.

Area Forecast Discussion 1:55PM EST NWS Boston, MA, an exerpt below:

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --***A POWERFUL COASTAL STORM WILL BRING HEAVY SNOW TO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND ALONG WITH STRONG WINDS AND NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS TO
PORTIONS OF THE COAST TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING***

LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL BECOME A BOMB AS
SURFACE PRESSURE WILL DROP TO AROUND 970 MB...AS IT PASSES SOUTHEAST
OF THE BENCHMARK LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.
LOTS OF LIGHTNING
IS ALREADY SHOWING UP JUST TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.

ALL IN ALL...THIS WILL BE A PRETTY CLASSIC SETUP FOR HEAVY SNOW
ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. CONFIDENCE IN HEAVY SNOW IS
QUITE HIGH ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE FLY IN THE
OINTMENT REMAINS HOW MUCH SNOW FALLS ACROSS NORTHWEST MA AND
SOUTHERN NH...AND WHERE EXACTLY DOES THE SHARP CUT OFF IN THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD OCCUR. THE 00Z MODEL SUITE HAS TRENDED FURTHER
NORTHWEST AND WE THINK THAT TREND MAY NOT BE DONE. MANY OF THESE
POWERFUL STORMS OFTEN TREND FURTHER NORTHWEST 24 TO 36 HOURS BEFORE
THE EVENT.
wow, SSI. I can't imagine the mess of disgruntled travelers.
LOL, They even closed the mall :)
Reagan National Airport website "Do not come to the airport because no more flights will be operating today"

Link
***Hot off the press***

STORM SUMMARY NUMBER 05 FOR EASTERN U.S. WINTER STORM
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
400 PM EST SAT DEC 19 2009

...MAJOR WINTER STORM CONTINUES DEVELOPING OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES...

FLOOD AND COASTAL FLOOD WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES ARE CURRENTLY IN
EFFECT ALONG MUCH OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST FROM THE OUTER BANKS
OF NORTH CAROLINA TO LONG ISLAND.

BLIZZARD WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR LONG ISLAND NEW YORK
AND EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND.

WINTER STORM WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FROM THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...INCLUDING
MOST OF THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE IN
EFFECT TO THE SOUTHEAST AND NORTHWEST OF THE WARNING AREA. A
WINTER STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE.

FOR A DETAILED GRAPHICAL DEPICTION OF THE LATEST
WATCHES...WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES...PLEASE SEE WWW.WEATHER.GOV

AT 300 PM EST...A 984 MB...29.06 INCH LOW PRESSURE CENTER WAS
LOCATED JUST OFF THE COAST NEAR VIRGINIA BEACH. NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE DOPPLER RADARS AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATED
WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW FALLING TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF
THIS SURFACE LOW...EXTENDING FROM THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY
NORTHEASTWARD TO NEW YORK CITY. IN ADDITION TO THE SNOW...HEAVY
RAIN WAS FALLING ALONG THE COAST OF THE SOUTHERN DELMARVA
PENINSULA...AND GUSTY WINDS WERE REPORTED IN COASTAL AREAS FROM
NORTH CAROLINA TO LONG ISLAND.

...SELECTED STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL IN INCHES FROM 100 AM EST FRI DEC
18 THROUGH 300 PM EST SAT DEC 19...

...DELAWARE...
WOODSIDE 11.0
WILMINGTON 8.7
SMYRNA 8.0
DOVER 5.0

...MARYLAND...
RAWLINGS 16.0
GERMANTOWN 15.5
WALKERSVILLE 15.5
BRYANS ROAD 2ESE 14.5
SILVER SPRING 1 ESE 14.2
COLUMBIA 2N 14.1
GARRISON 1SE 12.4
BOWIE 11.0
ANNAPOLIS 10.5
BALTIMORE 7.5

...NEW JERSEY...
SHILOH 10.5
MILLVILLE 9.5
LONG BEACH ISLAND 8.5
BRIDGETON 8.0
CHERRY HILL 8.0
HAMMONTON 7.5
SEWELL 6.0
ESTELL MANOR 5.5
ATLANTIC CITY 5.4
OCEAN CITY 5.0

...OHIO...
BRIDGEPORT 5.0

...PENNSYLVANIA...
HANOVER 16.0
HOLTWOOD 16.0
ORRTANNA 14.0
UPPER STRASBURG 14.0
BONNEAUVILLE 13.0
GETTYSBURG 10.0
SHIPPENSBURG 10.0
PHILADELPHIA 8.8
BEDFORD 8.0
PITTSBURGH WFO 4.0

...VIRGINIA...
INDIAN VALLEY 26.0
CROZET 1SSE 23.0
COVINGTON 22.6
BALLSTON 1SW 16.5
DULLES INTERNATIONAL 16.0
CHARLOTTESVILLE 15.0
BLACKSBURG 14.2
REAGAN NATIONAL ARPT 13.0
ALEXANDRIA 1SE 12.0
RICHMOND W 11.5

...WEST VIRGINIA...
MARLINTON 26.0
FRIARS HILL 25.0
JUMPING BRANCH 24.0
WILLIAMSBURG 22.0
GRANDVIEW 21.0
BECKLEY 20.0
CHARLES TOWN 18.0
ELKINS 18.0
HINTON 17.0
PRINCETON 17.0

...SELECTED STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL IN INCHES WHERE THE EVENT HAS
ENDED...

...NORTH CAROLINA ...
ROBBINSVILLE 12 W 24.0
ASHEVILLE 17.0
BOONE 16.0
EAST MARION 15.0
RUTHERWOOD 15.0
FLEETWOOD 14.0
WAYNESVILLE 13.8
WEST JEFFERSON 13.0
MARSHALL 7 N 12.0
GREENSBORO 4.5

...SELECTED STORM TOTAL RAINFALL IN INCHES WHERE THE EVENT HAS
ENDED...

...SOUTH CAROLINA...
MCCLELLANVILLE 5.96
MOUNT PLEASANT 1 NE 5.38
ISLE OF PALMS 4.80
CHARLESTON 3.93
FORT JOHNSON 3.51
NORTH MYRTLE BEACH 2.96
GOOSE CREEK 4 SE 2.90
HUGER 3 NNE 2.80
BEAUFORT 2.55
WITHERBEE 2.44


THE SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST JUST OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE AND STRENGTHEN THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
A WIDE BAND OF HEAVY SNOWFALL IS ONGOING TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
LOW TRACK...AND THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS IN THE MID ATLANTIC REGION...AND
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING IN NEW ENGLAND. TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ON
THE ORDER OF 8 TO 20 INCHES ARE LIKELY ALONG THE I 95
CORRIDOR...INCLUDING THE CITIES OF
WASHINGTON...BALTIMORE...PHILADELPHIA...NEW YORK...AND BOSTON.

THE NEXT STORM SUMMARY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL
PREDICTION CENTER AT 1000 PM EST. PLEASE REFER TO YOUR LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS
EVENT.

SOLTON
The web site for Dulles airport is being VERY sluggish, I bet it is hammered with people checking in.
Reagan National Airport (DCA):

* All runways are closed until 6:00am tomorrow. Snow-clearing crews are continuing to work on the runways.
* Passengers: Do not come to Reagan National because no more flights will operate today.
* The terminal facilities remain open.
* Metrorail is not operating trains to Reagan National's station due to snow depth on the tracks.


Dulles International Airport (IAD):

* Snow-clearing crews have been working to keep at least one runway open.
* A few flights have arrived and departed this morning and a few international flights are enroute to Dulles. However, most scheduled flights today are canceled.
* The terminal facilities remain open.
* Washington Flyer Coach is not operating between Dulles and West Falls Church Metrorail station due to roadway conditions
* Metrobus is not operating buses between Dulles and Washington, D.C.

BWI's is down
Yep I get the website down message for BWI as well.
Hey! Isn't this a nice Christmas Snow? We have been seeing 19 degrees F all day here. But, I've been told that the globe was WARMING! Just ask "Al Chicken Little Gore"!

I am sure glad they didn't make any foolish laws at Copenhagen these last few days. Since water vapor RULES the greenhouse effect, I doubt that a few hundred parts per million of some other gas will make any significant difference.

In the mean time, it will be good to clean up the environment as much as possible without breaking the banks. That is, the ones that aren't broken already.

Merry Christmas!
Photobucket
There's the little guy trying to get around
LINK to CH 7 Washington DC, LIVE FEED:

Link
what a mess, SSI. glad we have no part in this.

Our transportation issues, just involve whether to put the top down or not on the convertible.
Quoting dsauder:
Hey! Isn't this a nice Christmas Snow? We have been seeing 19 degrees F all day here. But, I've been told that the globe was WARMING! Just ask "Al Chicken Little Gore"!

I am sure glad they didn't make any foolish laws at Copenhagen these last few days. Since water vapor RULES the greenhouse effect, I doubt that a few hundred parts per million of some other gas will make any significant difference.

In the mean time, it will be good to clean up the environment as much as possible without breaking the banks. That is, the ones that aren't broken already.

Merry Christmas!


You just had to go there ... right?
Here is the latest statement from Washington--also note that 1.4" of snow fell before midnight, and there has been 2 hours of heavy snow since:

.CLIMATE...
SNOWFALL FROM THIS STORM WILL LIKELY BREAK SEVERAL RECORDS FOR
SNOWFALL IN DECEMBER AT THE AREA AIRPORTS OF BWI...DCA...IAD.

HERE IS WHAT WE WE KNOW SO FAR...

FOR DCA...11.6 INCHES OF SNOW WAS OFFICIALLY MEASURED AT 152 PM EST
TODAY FOR THE CALENDAR DAY...DEC 19 2009. THIS BREAKS THE ALL-TIME
DECEMBER SINGLE CALENDAR DAY SNOWFALL RECORD FOR WASHINGTON DC.
THE PREVIOUS SINGLE CALENDAR DAILY RECORD WAS 11.5 INCHES SET ON
DEC 17 1932.
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Here is the latest statement from Washington--also note that 1.4" of snow fell before midnight, and there has been 2 hours of heavy snow since:

.CLIMATE...
SNOWFALL FROM THIS STORM WILL LIKELY BREAK SEVERAL RECORDS FOR
SNOWFALL IN DECEMBER AT THE AREA AIRPORTS OF BWI...DCA...IAD.

HERE IS WHAT WE WE KNOW SO FAR...

FOR DCA...11.6 INCHES OF SNOW WAS OFFICIALLY MEASURED AT 152 PM EST
TODAY FOR THE CALENDAR DAY...DEC 19 2009. THIS BREAKS THE ALL-TIME
DECEMBER SINGLE CALENDAR DAY SNOWFALL RECORD FOR WASHINGTON DC.
THE PREVIOUS SINGLE CALENDAR DAILY RECORD WAS 11.5 INCHES SET ON
DEC 17 1932.


Up to 14", just announced on Live Feed from CH 7, DC.
98. IKE
Quoting stribe37:


The province of Ontario in Canada :) Specifically, the southwestern part of the province north of Ohio and Lake Erie and NE of Detroit. (I see someone has already answered with a GFS forecast, but I'll still be interested to hear your reply per the European model).


ECMWF has the low going just west of Michigan. Hard to see snow in Ontario based on that track...if it verifies.
Quoting stribe37:


Hmm. Weather Network is currently showing wet snow/mixed precipitation for Christmas Eve/Christmas Day for the London Ontario area.. and only about 1/2 the 30 cm amount you're mentioning (I thought the Weather Network up here used the NAM weather model).


I used the GFS output for that prediction, and added the totals for TWN from the forecast period then from GFS for the rest of the storm period. But that was for my location, which is north of Toronto, not for London.


Quoting dsauder:
Hey! Isn't this a nice Christmas Snow? We have been seeing 19 degrees F all day here. But, I've been told that the globe was WARMING! Just ask "Al Chicken Little Gore"!

I am sure glad they didn't make any foolish laws at Copenhagen these last few days. Since water vapor RULES the greenhouse effect, I doubt that a few hundred parts per million of some other gas will make any significant difference.

In the mean time, it will be good to clean up the environment as much as possible without breaking the banks. That is, the ones that aren't broken already.

Merry Christmas!


Heavy snowstorms do not disprove global warming; thinking that they do is missing the bigger picture. In fact, El Nino may drive this type of weather pattern, where freezing cold occurs in some places and heavy snow in others, and El Nino may be exacerbated by global warming. Since the economy and CO2 emissons are down, this is a good time to do something about global warming and shift to a greener economy, but the world doesn't have much time.
Here I am in King George, VA. Leaving on vacation to Tulsa tomorrow morning ...... RIGHT. They have not even started to plow the roads yet.

Well, 1.4" yesterday and 11.6" until 2 p.m add up to 13" Since they have had heavy snow for 2 hours since, it is probably 15-16"
Quoting SQUAWK:
Here I am in King George, VA. Leaving on vacation to Tulsa tomorrow morning ...... RIGHT. They have not even started to plow the roads yet.



Sorry about that...I hope you can find away to go!!!
Quoting IKE:


ECMWF has the low going just west of Michigan. Hard to see snow in Ontario based on that track...if it verifies.


GEM model is saying this afternoon that "snow" is expected on Christmas Day.

Also saw on NWS in Cleveland there that he tends to believe the HPC forecast model (which I'm not familiar with), which apparently is a father south Low track and then merging with another East Coast Low.. and he's calling for all snow for Cleveland at this point. So if Cleveland were to get all snow, you can bet us folks north of Lake Erie would as well.

Models are still all over the place though.
Its finally about to snow here!! cant wait! hahaha


Link below to NWS Balt/DC, snow totals from 9-24" see map :-)!!

Link
no 1 should be flying out of dc anyway,,remember that plane that hit the bridge,, i my self , never fly in snow, if i can help it,,i remember flyin back to denver 1 time , great weather here in nc , alas a storm in denver made it very scary,not that i fly like george all the time,,and i know planes can come down in clear weather,but at least the pilots can see
AstroHurricane001 said:

Heavy snowstorms do not disprove global warming; thinking that they do is missing the bigger picture. In fact, El Nino may drive this type of weather pattern, where freezing cold occurs in some places and heavy snow in others, and El Nino may be exacerbated by global warming. Since the economy and CO2 emissons are down, this is a good time to do something about global warming and shift to a greener economy, but the world doesn't have much time.


Well said; people need to get it into their heads that individual weather patterns or snowstorms do not equal long term climate change (which is a far better and more accurate term for describing it then "global warming", which makes everyone think that every place on earth is going to get uniformly warm and it will never snow anywhere or get cold anywhere ever again, which is a false premise pushed by climate-change deniers).
The worst part of this storm may be the flooding that occurs on Christmas when the next system cuts through the Ohio Valley and the I-95 Corridor is on the warm side of things. Heavy rain and 20 inches of melting snow doesn't mix very well.
Philadelphia airport had 8.8" as of 1 p.m., with 3 hours of heavy snow since--must be a foot or more there by now.
110. IKE
Quoting stribe37:


GEM model is saying this afternoon that "snow" is expected on Christmas Day.

Also saw on NWS in Cleveland there that he tends to believe the HPC forecast model (which I'm not familiar with), which apparently is a father south Low track and then merging with another East Coast Low.. and he's calling for all snow for Cleveland at this point. So if Cleveland were to get all snow, you can bet us folks north of Lake Erie would as well.

Models are still all over the place though.


HPC 3-7 days......

HPC...day 6...



and day 7...

111. xcool
Quoting AstroHurricane001:

Heavy snowstorms do not disprove global warming; thinking that they do is missing the bigger picture. In fact, El Nino may drive this type of weather pattern, where freezing cold occurs in some places and heavy snow in others, and El Nino may be exacerbated by global warming. Since the economy and CO2 emissons are down, this is a good time to do something about global warming and shift to a greener economy, but the world doesn't have much time.

I know. NOTHING deters true believers.

Just don't get stuck in the snow!
Quoting auburn:


Sorry about that...I hope you can find away to go!!!


Hi Aubie. I am planning to use the truck to beat a path outta here tomorrow then get in the car and head out... if conditions permit. Looks like I got all your snow and then some.
Wow. Look at all the snow... Only way I get a white christmas here is to go the beach (or on a bartop in a club on South Beach).

My kids want to see snow, but I don't think it is wise to drive to see it!

Ike (or others)

Any chance of snow in Florida?
thank you dakster- I was afraid to ask
Quoting Dakster:
Wow. Look at all the snow... Only way I get a white christmas here is to go the beach (or on a bartop in a club on South Beach).

My kids want to see snow, but I don't think it is wise to drive to see it!

Ike (or others)

Any chance of snow in Florida?


I gotta tell ya... there is something about people in Florida asking for snow that just doesn't sound right. Kinda like Montana asking for palm trees.
Bordonaro, Looks like NWS Wakefield had a crystal ball. They called the storm in SE Va to within an inch on the depth and the changeover line was within 20 miles.

Just west of Williamsburg we ended up with @ 4 inches. I appears our weather is over for the most part, save for a couple bands of light precipitaion. Our roads are wet but clear.

West of Richmond it's a mess I've heard that parts of I-77 and I-81 had been closed and thay had opened shelters for stranded motorists. The VDOT site is showing interstates south of I-64 are currently open and passable now, with caution. However, north of I-64 is still quite treacherous. Blizzard conditions north of Fredricksburg. Personally I wouldn't be driving unless I had to.
118. IKE
Quoting Dakster:
Wow. Look at all the snow... Only way I get a white christmas here is to go the beach (or on a bartop in a club on South Beach).

My kids want to see snow, but I don't think it is wise to drive to see it!

Ike (or others)

Any chance of snow in Florida?


Not anytime soon.
Quoting dsauder:
Quoting AstroHurricane001:

Heavy snowstorms do not disprove global warming; thinking that they do is missing the bigger picture. In fact, El Nino may drive this type of weather pattern, where freezing cold occurs in some places and heavy snow in others, and El Nino may be exacerbated by global warming. Since the economy and CO2 emissons are down, this is a good time to do something about global warming and shift to a greener economy, but the world doesn't have much time.

I know. NOTHING deters true believers.

Just don't get stuck in the snow!


It's not so much about believing, as it is about overcoming denial and accepting an undeniable truth. And this storm has actually given us NO snow at my location in S. Ontario.
Quoting SQUAWK:


I gotta tell ya... there is something about people in Florida asking for snow that just doesn't sound right. Kinda like Montana asking for palm trees.


I had to ask for the wife. She REALLY wants snow for the kids on XMAS. In fact, that was one of the things our kids asked for. (I picked staying in Florida for a reason, this happens to be one of the reasons for staying in Florida)
Quoting outdrsmn:
Bordonaro, Looks like NWS Wakefield had a crystal ball. They called the storm in SE Va to within an inch on the depth and the changeover line was within 20 miles.

Just west of Williamsburg we ended up with @ 4 inches. I appears our weather is over for the most part, save for a couple bands of light precipitaion. Our roads are wet but clear.

West of Richmond it's a mess I've heard that parts of I-77 and I-81 had been closed and thay had opened shelters for stranded motorists. The VDOT site is showing interstates south of I-64 are currently open and passable now, with caution. However, north of I-64 is still quite treacherous. Blizzard conditions north of Fredricksburg. Personally I wouldn't be driving unless I had to.


One million and one kuddos to NWS Wakefield, VA. For an area that rarely receives more than several inches of snow a winter to get the forecast down to the inch level and winthin 20 miles speaks of their superior forecasting abilities.

It would be awesome if the NHC could forecast Hurricanes and Tropical Storms that way :0)!!
Quoting xcool:





That is the LAST thing the S Plains need for the first week of Jan 2010 :0)!!

AstroHurricane001,

Just some thoughts about believers and deniers:

It seems that nothing deters either one, on the causes of climate change anyway. That must indicate that the truth is on a very fine line.

That means, "Don't spend your money trying to fix what you imagine may help." You just may do one of two things, (1)waste your efforts and substance, Or (2)cause other greater problems.

Why does almost no one talk about the MAJOR effect of water vapor on the climate? All I have learned about that is, "It is too complicated to model."

To me, that says a lot about the general ignorance of even the best scientists regarding the subject of the cause of any warming trends that happen from time to time! I suppose you are aware of the general cooling trend that has been going on for the past decade or so.
124. P451
OMG! I'm going to get creamed! LOL!


A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. SNOW. BLOWING SNOW.
SNOW MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES. SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 15 TO 20
INCHES. VERY WINDY WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. NORTH WINDS 20 TO
30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW NEAR 100 PERCENT.
Quoting P451:
OMG! I'm going to get creamed! LOL!


A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. SNOW. BLOWING SNOW.
SNOW MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES. SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 15 TO 20
INCHES. VERY WINDY WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. NORTH WINDS 20 TO
30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW NEAR 100 PERCENT.
Pleasr identify where you are at.
Greetings From Baltimore!!

At last measurement, there was 20" on snow in our back yard in Baltimore City.
The Ravens-Bears game has been moved to 4:15pm on Sunday, and they Bears aren't even out of Chicago yet!!

This has been such a wonderful day, just gorgeous and quite. I haven't heard a police car siren since last night.

Made cookies, put up the tree, did last mintue decoration, wrapped gifts. A wonderful, snowy day!
We were thinking of visiting the in-laws in the vicinity of Asheville Thursday thru Sunday. Since i am a NW Floridian and have no experience driving in the snow, we may not go.
Things are going to be crazy during the holiday but in case I don't get a chance to say it to everyone on here: Merry Christmas and Happy New Year! Be safe and have fun!
A portion of the Area Forecast Discussion from NWS New York City, NY: GET READY FOR YOUR BLIZZARD!!!!

HEAVY SNOW BANDS OVER SE PA AND DELMARVA PER OBS/RADAR ATTM WILL
MOVE INTO NYC METRO AND LONG ISLAND TONIGHT...AND THEN PIVOT EAST
ACROSS LONG ISLAND/CT OVERNIGHT AS INTENSE LOW PRESSURE E OF THE
DELMARVA MOVES TOWARD 39N 70W...A POSITION IDEAL FOR HEAVY SNOW IN
NYC AND LONG ISLAND. VERY STRONG FRONTOGENETIC FORCING PLUS
NEGATIVE EPV PER MODEL FCST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT SNOWFALL RATES OF
2-4 INCHES PER HOUR AS WELL AS THUNDER AND LIGHTNING...FROM LATE
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. WITH QPF OF 0.5-1.0 INCH NORTH/WEST OF
NYC AND UP TO 1.5 INCHES ELSEWHERE...PLUS SWE RATIOS APPROACHING
15-1...HAVE BUMPED UP ACCUMULATIONS ALL ACROSS THE BOARD...WITH
EXTENSION OF WARNINGS INTO ORANGE/PUTNAM WHERE 5-10 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS RAMP UP FROM THERE SOUTH/EAST TO
10-15 INCHES FOR NYC AND IMMEDIATE NORTHERN/WESTERN SUBURBS...TO
15-20 INCHES FOR MUCH OF OF LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHEAST CT.
SOME SPOTS COULD PICK UP AS MUCH AS 2 FT OF SNOW...MOST LIKELY
THIS APPEARS TO BE SOMEWHERE ACROSS NASSAU AND WESTERN/CENTRAL
SUFFOLK COUNTIES UP INTO COASTAL NEW LONDON COUNTY...BUT 18Z RUC13
GIVE ME SOME CONCERN THAT THIS COULD EXTEND INTO AREAS FARTHER
NORTH/WEST INCLUDING NYC AS WELL. WILL CLOSELY MONITOR WITH
FREQUENT UPDATES TONIGHT.

WINDS PICKING UP AND NOW GUSTING TO 25-30 KT ALONG THE COAST.
STRONG PRESSURE FALLS AND TIGHT GRADIENT TONIGHT WILL HAVE WINDS
INCREASING ALONG THE COAST TO 20 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 35 TO 40
MPH. HAVE CONTINUED BLIZZARD WARNING AS IS ACROSS LONG ISLAND...
WHERE WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 45 MPH ARE EXPECTED. NEAR BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN NYC METRO AND COASTAL
CT. HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF BLIZZARD CONDITIONS IN WARNED AREA
EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...AS TEMPS DROP
INTO THE 20S. SNOW WILL BE TAPERING OFF IN MOST SECTIONS EXCEPT
EASTERN LI/CT LATE TONIGHT...BUT STRONG WINDS ELSEWHERE WILL STILL
PRODUCE CONSIDERABLE BLOWING/DRIFTING OF SNOW.
still not as bad as the UK which is in a very bad state despite only 5 inches of snow.
131. IKE
Quoting mossyhead:
Pleasr identify where you are at.


He's in New Jersey.
64. AstroHurricane001 8:21 PM GMT on December 19, 2009.
Re: Where is Ontario located.

'Ontario is north of the Great Lakes.'


A bit of trivia: To go to Ontario from Detroit, you go straight south. I attended the University of Windsor and, to get there from where I lived, I had to go SSE.

Oops! that should have beenSSW
N.B.: I lived in Michigan, NE of Detroit.
and , any thing that bothers me when it comes to snowstorms,, i worked for eastern airlines, so that tells you im just a little old,, why do you blame us 4 the weather? i did not cause that storm or that one,, do not scream at me,, if i could , i would have drove u myself,, make alternate plans,, i made 10 $ hour, back then,, not worth it,, so , if you fly,, make sure there is not a snowstorm on the horizon,,
Quoting IpswichWeatherCenter:
still not as bad as the UK which is in a very bad state despite only 5 inches of snow.


Well that's 12 cm of snow, sounds more impressive ;)
Any excuse not to visit with the inlaws is a good excuse...
I measured about 16 inches of snow! Biggest snowfall I've ever seen. And it's still snowing
138. P451
Quoting mossyhead:
Pleasr identify where you are at.


Central NJ.



Nice IR look at the low center off the coast.


Quoting dsauder:
Quoting AstroHurricane001:

Heavy snowstorms do not disprove global warming; thinking that they do is missing the bigger picture. In fact, El Nino may drive this type of weather pattern, where freezing cold occurs in some places and heavy snow in others, and El Nino may be exacerbated by global warming. Since the economy and CO2 emissons are down, this is a good time to do something about global warming and shift to a greener economy, but the world doesn't have much time.

I know. NOTHING deters true believers.

Just don't get stuck in the snow!


Careful, don't fall off your soapbox.
140. P451
48 Hours of the Nor'Easter.

Snowing pretty good here in Allentown, PA, about 50 miles NNW of Philly. Picked up about 3.5" so far with moderate/heavy 1" per hour rates.
Lefty checking in.

Still snowing here in Central VA. I have no clue how much we have. Lets say 18-22".

It is still snowing hard. It has now been snowing 26 hours!!!!

Expecting another 2-3" overnight.

My driveway is clear. Might have to shovel and spread rock salt 1 last time!!!
Here in Richmond I measured aanywhere from 10" to a foot in my yard. It varied some. Also 6 and a half inches on my driveway. After shoveling it, more snow came through and brought a light coating to my driveway.
Quoting leftyy420:
Lefty checking in.

Still snowing here in Central VA. I have no clue how much we have. Lets say 18-22".

It is still snowing hard. It has now been snowing 26 hours!!!!

Expecting another 2-3" overnight.

My driveway is clear. Might have to shovel and spread rock salt 1 last time!!!


Where are you. West End?
Quoting tropicfreak:


Where are you. West End?


Louisa. North of I 64.
Quoting stribe37:
AstroHurricane001 said:


Heavy snowstorms do not disprove global warming; thinking that they do is missing the bigger picture. In fact, El Nino may drive this type of weather pattern, where freezing cold occurs in some places and heavy snow in others, and El Nino may be exacerbated by global warming. Since the economy and CO2 emissons are down, this is a good time to do something about global warming and shift to a greener economy, but the world doesn't have much time.


Well said; people need to get it into their heads that individual weather patterns or snowstorms do not equal long term climate change (which is a far better and more accurate term for describing it then "global warming", which makes everyone think that every place on earth is going to get uniformly warm and it will never snow anywhere or get cold anywhere ever again, which is a false premise pushed by climate-change deniers).


Read this wonderfully articulate piece on why
it is not denial, it is science, and the only
denial is the AGW enablers and their agenda.
Hopefully the content is simplified for all to
understand, because it seems when confronted with facts, the "planet has a fever" scientists
suddenly go mute. No additional comment required

http://www.greenworldtrust.org.uk/Science/Curious.htm

Conclusion: If you don't have the time!

Here is the heart of the IPCC greenhouse gas science - and how AGW science has handled it. It's easy to wave equations or computer models in someone's face to say they prove something. But it's not so easy to fool someone who is a scientist or statistician, or has an eye for fraud, or has actually studied Climate Science. If the greenhouse effects of CO2 have been calculated incorrectly and much higher than the IPCC /UN figures dictate, the whole "greenhouse" basis of Anthropogenic Global Warming comes unstuck - and the credibility of the IPCC - and the expensive possibility of "fixing" nonexistent problem by reducing CO2 emissions.
I received 1 foot of snow here in North Wilkesboro, NC. Roads are in bad shape, still stuck at home. I could hardly open my door this morning and for the first time I had to shovel my driveway to even get to the car door to open.

Mountains west of here in NC got up to 24 but another 3-6 is possible as a new winter storm warning has been issued again, this one for a disturbance to our west.
xcool do you have an update to that image of snowfall totals?
Why does almost no one talk about the MAJOR effect of water vapor on the climate? All I have learned about that is, "It is too complicated to model."

To me, that says a lot about the general ignorance of even the best scientists regarding the subject of the cause of any warming trends that happen from time to time!


Bingo.....They dont know enough about vapor processes to accurately put them into models, yet have the nerve to push an agenda that they claim is "undeniable proof"....Nothing more than scientific ignorance....Which in itself, puts rightful skepticism on AGW....

Global warming skeptics from around the world
Must be global warming. Snow in London, always
in December.
Lefty's been twinkin' and tarting the snow shovel...

stupid question- is there another storm like this in the future?

A picture should show up
this snowfall has been really amazing
Quoting all4hurricanes:

A picture should show up
this snowfall has been really amazing




Where do you live?

This looks like the lake effect snow we get here in SW Michigan - except this year we've had only one real snowfall (about 8 in) and only a bit of "dusting" since then.
Quoting all4hurricanes:

A picture should show up
this snowfall has been really amazing


Where are you at??
I've got 14" here in southern Jersey, with a seemingly unreal 5-9" expected, which would bring us to our average seasonal total of 23".
Northern Virginia
Wow!!! That's a lot of snow. Looks like a giant bunt cake, it's made me hungry.
Quoting mossyhead:
We were thinking of visiting the in-laws in the vicinity of Asheville Thursday thru Sunday. Since i am a NW Floridian and have no experience driving in the snow, we may not go.


Mossy...Yikes -- have you called the in-laws?
My first reaction is no, no, no, no, no...
but IF roads are clear by then...
if the folks have power...
if there's not another storm...

Blizzard-like storm slams East, region snowed in
The Associated Press - Sarah Karush - ‎54 minutes ago‎
Snow, ice and freezing rain also hit western North Carolina on Friday, knocking out power to almost 60000 customers around the Asheville area. ...


Link
Quoting outdrsmn:
Wow!!! That's a lot of snow. Looks like a giant bunt cake, it's made me hungry.

I was thinking exactly that!
Quoting all4hurricanes:
Northern Virginia


near woodbridge?? used to live up there. Im suprised that tables hasnt collapsed
Tornado outbreak likely Wed across the ARKLATEX.
For more insight into quasigeostropic's thoughs, check out the bottom two lines of his comment #8 on this blog: Link
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


near woodbridge?? used to live up there. Im suprised that tables hasnt collapsed

Were 30 minutes west of Woodbridge VA This is definitely the biggest snow I've ever seen
# 163

Okay..we've seen the post,..can we move on from the recess games though?

Why draw attention to something that's irrelevant here?
Meanwhile, here in our lovely Village near the DC line...
My husband shoveled 4 times. The handle broke on the snow shovel. I told him he really didn't have to go that far not to have to shovel again.

I used my legs & coat as snow plow in the back yard to make a path for our canine ankle-biters. The snow is over my knees (I'm 5' 3"), but that's about 20-21 inches, more or less.

We have not seen a plow on our street, but a couple-few 4-wheel drive vehicles made tire tracks in which we could walk the dogs. They kept looking at us, like, "is this really okay? You usually yell at me if I go into the street! You mean I should do my business here, too? Really??" They got into it and we had fun. It is very beautiful down near the creek in the woods.

I saw a Metrobus go down the main road parallel to our street! I heard on the news that the DC mayor was going to cancel them at 1 p.m. -- but I'm thinking Maryland and maybe other jurisdictions at least kept them going between subway stops. That would make a lot of sense; someone actually kept their head.

So all in all, we're good. I'm a little concerned because it's supposed to snow a few more hours. I'm seeing me getting bread, milk, eggs, and a snow shovel on the BUS tomorrow -- I HOPE!

Thanks to everyone, esp. those from other areas of the country, for keeping an eye out for our airports, etc., while we were dealing with this! Oh, and of course, if you saw the NBC News...yes, this is supposed to break the all-time record for snow, etc., haven't had this much snow for 6 years here (accurate).

But seems like I remember snowstorms a lot like this about once a year when I was a kid. Kids gotta' have good sledding days!

Take care; stay safe all!
168. P451
Tinton Falls, NJ
9"+

Just took these pics.



Clearly getting 3" per hour. I JUST shoveled that and took the pictures minutes later.
166
here the snow is over my knees too, but I'm a few inches taller. We've also shoveled a few times. We went sledding and we had to walk in the steet cause everywhere else it's almost impossible. I have to say though the sledding is great. Hopefully we'll get school off
I wonder how much each big city will get and who will be the winner!

Washington and Philly look to be the winners this time.
171. Xyrus
Still getting heavy snow where I am in eastern Maryland. Just measured in the middle of my yard at somewhere between 19 and 20 inches of snow. Looks like we might hit two feet before all is said and done.
P451 we've got 6" just now, but it's coming down harder than I've seen yet today.


This was at 4:30, about 2-3 inches.


And here's my own personal Bundt cake, 6" at 7:25 pm.
Quoting dsauder:
AstroHurricane001,

Just some thoughts about believers and deniers:

It seems that nothing deters either one, on the causes of climate change anyway. That must indicate that the truth is on a very fine line.

That means, "Don't spend your money trying to fix what you imagine may help." You just may do one of two things, (1)waste your efforts and substance, Or (2)cause other greater problems.

Why does almost no one talk about the MAJOR effect of water vapor on the climate? All I have learned about that is, "It is too complicated to model."

To me, that says a lot about the general ignorance of even the best scientists regarding the subject of the cause of any warming trends that happen from time to time! I suppose you are aware of the general cooling trend that has been going on for the past decade or so.


About water vapour, yes it does compose a major part of our greenhouse gases, but this is also an important positive feedback mechanism as warming temperatures increase water vapour concentrations in the atmosphere, leading to further warming, even though human activity does not increase water vapour directly, except through smokestacks. However, water vapour concentrations have been rising steadily recently, and this is very hard to model because not only does it increase greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, but it also produces more clouds and thereby reduces the amount of sunlight reaching Earth's surface.

We are actually not in a cooling trend, but our temperatures have been fairly stable for the past 5 years and CO2 emissions fairly stable for the past two years. This is also because of a strong solar minimum that has persisted since late 2005. However, in that same time period, Katrina struck New Orleans, Arctic sea ice reached a new record minimum, a chunk of the Wilkins Ice shelf collapsed, methane was released from melting permafrost, Arctic islands reached 20C in spring, dust storms swept through the Gobi desert, the North Atlantic Drift faltered for 10 days, methane clathrates began releasing from the Arctic Ocean, two El Ninos and one La Nina developed, tornado outbreaks struck Southern Ontario, Manitoba set a new humidex record and a record for the strongest Canadian tornado, the 18,000-year-old Chacaltaya Glacier in Peru vanished, Super Typhoon Nida comes close to setting a new size record, sea level rise accelerated, geese were seen flying north in late autumn in Canada...the list goes on. In this time period, however, public concern over global warming has also gone down. Now, imagine what will happen when solar activity and economic emissions of CO2 pick up again. This could be a double whammy, erasing the mask that hid the temperature rise of this time. This is why I think we really do need to do something about the global warming problem, and we really don't have much time. We could easily surpass the 1C mark in temperature rise since 1900 by 2015.

Denial and delay are dangerous when facing a global issue. Individuals need not only to act but also inspire others to act as well. If we want to have a future for the next generation then the time for action is NOW.
All the snow pictures are incredible! Keep them coming and I hope everyone is keeping safe.
Im getting ready for some WHO DAT here :)
175. P451
Quoting jerseygrl:
P451 we've got 6" just now, but it's coming down harder than I've seen yet today.


This was at 4:30, about 2-3 inches.


And here's my own personal Bundt cake, 6" at 7:25 pm.


Nice!

I just shot this while reaching out of the garage.

I had JUST cleared this spot 45 minutes ago...tops.



That is how insane this band of snow is. That would mean I'm up to 11" just like that. Got all cleaned up so I wasn't stepping back outside to measure. Shoveling got me soaked.


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2262
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0625 PM CST SAT DEC 19 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...NJ...SERN PA...NRN DE...SRN NY...CT...RI...SRN MA

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW

VALID 200025Z - 200530Z

HEAVY SNOW WITH RATES OF 1 TO 2 IN/HR WILL PIVOT NEWD FROM THE
MID-ATLANTIC INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH 06Z. THE MOST PERSISTENT
AREA OF HEAVY SNOW SHOULD LIE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NEW YORK CITY
METRO AREA...LONG ISLAND AND CT...WITH LOCALIZED RATES EXCEEDING 2
IN/HR AT TIMES. OCCASIONAL BLIZZARD CONDITIONS SHOULD COMMENCE
ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF LONG ISLAND AND SRN CT/RI/MA.

984 MB SURFACE CYCLONE CENTERED AROUND 150 SM E OF THE DELMARVA
PENINSULA HAS REMAINED NEARLY STEADY-STATE OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS.
NEVERTHELESS...AFTERNOON MODEL FORECASTS ARE CONSISTENT THAT
DEEPENING OF THIS LOW WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE 00-06Z PERIOD AS THE
MID-ATLANTIC SHORT WAVE TROUGH AMPLIFIES. THIS WILL LEAD TO
STRENGTHENING OF MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND ISENTROPIC
ASCENT...COINCIDENT WITH THE DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER...DEVELOPING
NEWD INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND. AS A RESULT...ONGOING MODERATE TO HEAVY
SNOW FALLING ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR FROM THE WASHINGTON D.C. TO NEW
YORK CITY METRO AREAS WILL PIVOT NEWD. PERSISTENT SNOWFALL RATES OF
1 TO 2 IN/HR WILL BE LIKELY FROM NJ NEWD INTO CT/RI THROUGH
06Z...WITH EMBEDDED BANDS SUPPORTING RATES BRIEFLY EXCEEDING 2
IN/HR.

AS THE OFFSHORE CYCLONE DEEPENS AND SLOWLY TRACKS NEWD...TIGHTENING
OF THE LOW-LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL STRENGTHEN N/NELY SURFACE
FLOW. FREQUENT GUSTS AOA 35 MPH SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO THE ERN
PORTION OF LONG ISLAND INTO COASTAL CT/RI AND FAR SRN MA...SUPPORTED
BY 15Z SREF GUIDANCE. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO THE COMMENCEMENT OF
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS /ESPECIALLY TOWARDS 06Z/ AS HEAVIER SNOW
OVERSPREADS THIS REGION.

..GRAMS.. 12/20/2009
I'm up in NoVA as well, and I do believe this is the first time I've ever seen cars literally buried under snow. I haven't gotten out with a stick and a tape measure yet. But, it looks to be just a little over 2 foot of snow here.
Latest link from NWS Balt/DC updated snowfall totals. In general, accumulations at 16" in DC, max report 26", WOW!!!

Link
OMG we have gotten 3.5 inches in the past hour! Up to 9.5" now.




The Christmas lights look kinda surreal under the snow!

Still coming down really hard--the latest forecast is 15-20 inches.
180. P451
This is 1 hour and 45 minutes worth of accumulation. This area was cleared 1:45 ago. We had 9 inches outright around when I finished clearing the following area.





Tinton Falls, NJ. I think we're pushing 15-16 inches without getting out there to really measure.
P451
This is just CRAZY!
let it snow
let it snow
let it snow some more be done by dawn or shortly thereafter in the end most areas may see 36 inches or more
184. P451
ROFL!!! And we have hours of this to go through!






There's a birdbath in there. I also know it's bottom is 16" exactly off the ground, well, cause that's what I did. So, yeah, about 16 inches here and dumping HARD!

185. P451
Quoting jerseygrl:
P451
This is just CRAZY!


I think it's awesome. Tomorrow should be one very interesting morning.
Where the heck is everyone going in this picture??? Long Island

Houston, Texas Feb 1895 snowstorm--22".

Just had to post --- so jealous. But at least we got 2-3" 2 weeks ago.

well i guess its safe to say you will get a white christmas
Woodbridge Center Rd/Gill Ln @ Rt.1
about 15 miles N (I think) of P451



Route 1 at Old Post Road

Quoting PcolaDan:
Where the heck is everyone going in this picture??? Long Island



The Walt Whitman Mall, haven't you ever been to Long Island? LOL
Quoting Grothar:


The Walt Whitman Mall, haven't you ever been to Long Island? LOL


LOL Can't say that I have. And only in NYC when I was about 10. Must be some good bargains there. :)
My brother on Long Island said there is lightening and thunder with this one!


RADAR INDICATED BANDS OF HEAVY SNOW CONTINUING OVER NEW YORK CITY AND LONG ISLAND. THESE BANDS SHOULD START TO MOVE EAST... INTENSIFY FURTHER OVER CENTRAL LONG ISLAND... AND SPREAD NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHEASTERN CONNECTICUT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. SNOWFALL RATES OF 2 TO LOCALLY 4 INCHES PER HOUR ARE LIKELY... ALONG WITH SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER. WINDS IN THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL ALSO GUST UP TO 40 MPH... CREATING BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AND VERY DANGEROUS DRIVING CONDITIONS. TRAVEL IS NOT RECOMMENDED.

Issued by The National Weather Service
New York City, NY
8:15 pm EST, Sat., Dec. 19, 2009

... BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EST SUNDAY...

A BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EST SUNDAY.

INTENSE LOW PRESSURE TRACKING SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW AND HIGH WINDS ACROSS LONG ISLAND. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 12 TO 18 INCHES... WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS AS HIGH AS 24 INCHES... ARE EXPECTED. SNOWFALL RATES OF 2 TO 4 INCHES PER HOUR... ACCOMPANIED BY THUNDER AND LIGHTNING... ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE HEIGHT OF THE STORM FROM LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. WIND GUSTS OF UP TO 50 MPH ARE ALSO EXPECTED... WHICH ALONG WITH THE HEAVY SNOW WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO UNDER A QUARTER MILE AT TIMES... AND CAUSE SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW.

SIGNIFICANT VARIATION IN SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WARNING AREA BASED ON WHERE THE HEAVIEST BANDS OF SNOW DEVELOP.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A BLIZZARD WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS AND POOR VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY. THIS WILL LEAD TO WHITEOUT CONDITIONS... MAKING TRAVEL EXTREMELY DANGEROUS. DO NOT TRAVEL. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL... HAVE A WINTER SURVIVAL KIT WITH YOU. IF YOU GET STRANDED... STAY WITH YOUR VEHICLE.

Quoting Grothar:
My brother on Long Island said there is lightening and thunder with this one!



Saw that once in North Dakota during a Spring storm. Was wild and crazy stuff.
Quoting PcolaDan:


LOL Can't say that I have. And only in NYC when I was about 10. Must be some good bargains there. :)


They have a diner across the street from the Mall in Huntington that has the best cheesecake you have ever tasted, not NEW YORK STYLE Cheesecake, the Real thing. My brother lives up on the hills on the North Shore, said it is the worst he has seen in years. Long Island doesn't usually get snow that deep, very rare.
Quoting Bordonaro:
Latest link from NWS Balt/DC updated snowfall totals. In general, accumulations at 16" in DC, max report 26", WOW!!!

Link


Hey Bord, Got to hand it to you, you really called this one! We knew it was going to be bad, but the snowfall amounts are incredible for these places.
Quoting PcolaDan:


Saw that once in North Dakota during a Spring storm. Was wild and crazy stuff.


Blog is quiet tonight. I hope they haven't lost power and can't get on. Bet there are some interesting stories out there. Hope all our fellow bloggers stay safe.
Can you still be banned if you are the only one on the blog????????
Quoting AstroHurricane001:


About water vapour, yes it does compose a major part of our greenhouse gases, but this is also an important positive feedback mechanism as warming temperatures increase water vapour concentrations in the atmosphere, leading to further warming, even though human activity does not increase water vapour directly, except through smokestacks. However, water vapour concentrations have been rising steadily recently, and this is very hard to model because not only does it increase greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, but it also produces more clouds and thereby reduces the amount of sunlight reaching Earth's surface.

We are actually not in a cooling trend, but our temperatures have been fairly stable for the past 5 years and CO2 emissions fairly stable for the past two years. This is also because of a strong solar minimum that has persisted since late 2005. However, in that same time period, Katrina struck New Orleans, Arctic sea ice reached a new record minimum, a chunk of the Wilkins Ice shelf collapsed, methane was released from melting permafrost, Arctic islands reached 20C in spring, dust storms swept through the Gobi desert, the North Atlantic Drift faltered for 10 days, methane clathrates began releasing from the Arctic Ocean, two El Ninos and one La Nina developed, tornado outbreaks struck Southern Ontario, Manitoba set a new humidex record and a record for the strongest Canadian tornado, the 18,000-year-old Chacaltaya Glacier in Peru vanished, Super Typhoon Nida comes close to setting a new size record, sea level rise accelerated, geese were seen flying north in late autumn in Canada...the list goes on. In this time period, however, public concern over global warming has also gone down. Now, imagine what will happen when solar activity and economic emissions of CO2 pick up again. This could be a double whammy, erasing the mask that hid the temperature rise of this time. This is why I think we really do need to do something about the global warming problem, and we really don't have much time. We could easily surpass the 1C mark in temperature rise since 1900 by 2015.

Denial and delay are dangerous when facing a global issue. Individuals need not only to act but also inspire others to act as well. If we want to have a future for the next generation then the time for action is NOW.

There is nothing that can be done about CO2 - it will continue to go up. The world population will reach 10 billion by 2030. We can't just quit burning fossil fuels overnight - it will take DECADES to get over our need for them. Just let the 2-4 watts/m^2 warm it up a little. Humans will just have to adapt to some warming. I already a small car, so I am doing my part.

Cheers.



On Long Island here, south shore in Suffolk. Hating the fact that I haven't heard any thundersnow yet. Easily snowing at a rate of 2-3 inches an hour, if not more. Already 8 inches here and counting. Here's a pic I took from my front porch a half hour ago.

http://twitpic.com/u9trp

Gonna go out for a spin, absolutely love driving in the snow, especially when it's really bad.
I remember thundersnow in SW Ohio. Lots of lightning(all cloud to cloud...like spider webs), but very little thunder. It was muffled by the snow. Quite an amazing show.
Quoting Grothar:
Can you still be banned if you are the only one on the blog????????


Try it and see. :)

(watching the Saints of old show up to play tonight)
I'm so jealous! I love those pics. Keep 'em comming!
Quoting PcolaDan:


Try it and see. :)

(watching the Saints of old show up to play tonight)


Go ahead, get me in trouble. Remember that song. "That Old Gang of Mine" sure do miss some of the old bloggers tonight. Not that you newcomers and not welcome. We hope you enjoy this blog as much as we do.
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
I'm so jealous! I love those pics. Keep 'em comming!


I'm waiting for more bundt cake pics from jerseygrl and tape measure from P451. Daughter supposed to email me some from their house in Fort Belvoir. Probably tomorrow at earliest though.
173. AstroHurricane001 12:36 AM GMT on December 20, 2009

Re: Water vapor as greenhouse gas, etc.

Denial and delay are dangerous when facing a global issue.


The longer we delay, the costlier the consequences will be.
Quoting Grothar:


Go ahead, get me in trouble. Remember that song. "That Old Gang of Mine" sure do miss some of the old bloggers tonight. Not that you newcomers and not welcome. We hope you enjoy this blog as much as we do.


Grothar!!!! Mind getting on chat?
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
I'm so jealous! I love those pics. Keep 'em comming!


Here ya go Doug. Fresh from KG VA.



PcolaDan just for you!



We're well over a foot now--the ruler sunk under the snow! The firepit has pretty well disappeared as well. Still snowing pretty hard, but I think it's slowed a little bit. My poor little doggie (Bichon/Toy Poodle mix) took one look at all the snow and promptly lifted his leg on the porch post!

We'll see what the morning brings.
211. P451
As you guys have followed, I had 9" of snow at roughly 7PM here in New Jersey. I cleared my driveway. This is now a 3 hour accumulation of 9.5" on top of that once cleared and well sheltered surface (no drifting here) ... giving me a rough guess of 18.5" and counting.



From 7-8pm = 2.5in
From 8-9pm = 4in
From 9-10pm = 3in

Yeah, amazing!!!!

We so far officially got 19"

SPOTTER REPORTS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
901 PM EST SAT DEC 19 2009

THE FOLLOWING ARE UNOFFICIAL OBSERVATIONS TAKEN DURING THE PAST 24
HOURS FOR THE STORM THAT HAS BEEN AFFECTING OUR REGION.
APPRECIATION IS EXTENDED TO HIGHWAY DEPARTMENTS...COOPERATIVE
OBSERVERS...SKYWARN SPOTTERS AND MEDIA FOR THESE REPORTS. THIS
SUMMARY IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON OUR HOME PAGE AT WEATHER.GOV/WAKEFIELD

********************STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL********************

LOCATION STORM TOTAL TIME/DATE COMMENTS
SNOWFALL OF
(INCHES) MEASUREMENT


MARYLAND

...DORCHESTER COUNTY...
DORCHESTER 12.0 700 PM 12/19
CAMBRIDGE 9.0 1000 AM 12/19
ELDORADO 7.0 1000 AM 12/19

...WICOMICO COUNTY...
MARDELA 6.0 1000 AM 12/19

VIRGINIA

...CAROLINE COUNTY...
RUTHER GLEN 18.0 850 PM 12/19

...CHESTERFIELD COUNTY...
CHIPPENHAM 11.5 700 PM 12/19 RTE 360 & 5 MI W CHIPPENHAM
SALISBURY 11.0 630 PM 12/19
CHESTERFIELD 9.0 1100 AM 12/19 1/4M E HULL ST RD/RTE 288
CHESTER 5.8 1245 AM 12/19 RT. 10 AT I-295
CHESTER 4.8 700 AM 12/19 WALTHALL
CHESTERFIELD 4.5 700 PM 12/19 SALEM CHURCH AND CENTRALIA

...FLUVANNA COUNTY...
COLUMBIA 15.0 200 PM 12/19

...GOOCHLAND COUNTY...
SANDY HOOK 15.5 1000 AM 12/19
MANAKIN-SABOT 15.5 700 PM 12/19 EXTREME WESTERN HENRICO

...HANOVER COUNTY...
GLEN ALLEN 14.0 830 PM 12/19
ASHLAND 14.0 1000 AM 12/19
BEAVERDAM 13.0 646 AM 12/19 TYLER STATION
COATESVILLE 12.0 730 AM 12/19
CITY OF RICHMOND W 11.5 100 PM 12/19 NEAR WILLOW LAWN MALL
CITY OF RICHMOND SW 10.0 100 PM 12/19 2 MI SW OF CITY
RICHMOND APRT 7.0 100 PM 12/19 RIC ASOS

...HENRICO COUNTY...
SHORT PUMP 14.0 1000 AM 12/19
HENRICO 13.0 700 PM 12/19 RT 6 NEAR PARHAM RD
HENRICO 11.3 700 PM 12/19 1-295 AND RTE 33
HENRICO 9.0 257 AM 12/19 GASKINS RD. @ I-64

...LOUISA COUNTY...
LOUISA 19.0 800 PM 12/19
LAKE LOUISA 18.0 100 PM 12/19 7 MI NW OF LOUISA
BUMPASS 18.0 700 PM 12/19
LOUISA 12.3 643 AM 12/19


...POWHATAN COUNTY...
POWHATAN 12.2 700 PM 12/19 NEAR PINE TREE
POWHATAN 11.0 803 AM 12/19 20 MI. WEST OF RICHMOND

...RICHMOND COUNTY...
WARSAW 10.0 632 AM 12/19

...KING WILLIAM COUNTY...
STUDLEY 12.0 220 PM 12/19 5 MILES N STUDLEY

...SUSSEX COUNTY...
WAKEFIELD 3.0 630 PM 12/19 NWS OFFICE

...LUNENBURG...
VICTORIA 5.0 630 PM 12/19 FIRE STATION

...NEWPORT NEWS...
BEACONSDALE 1.3 700 PM 12/19 NEAR DEER PARK

...PRINCE GEORGE...
DISPUTANA 4.5 800 PM 12/19
Okj blah blah blah snow snow snow... only 1 team will remain undefeated after tonite.....
We'll see what the morning brings.

yellow icicles on the porch post, hahahaha
The remants of Mick are currently located near 36S, 162E, tracking southeast and undergoing a Fujiwara interaction with the system to its east. This is a very large extratropical system, extending 35 degrees in latitude and 20 degrees in longitude. It's already brought a huge mass of warmer water farther south, and will continue to do so as it tracks east toward the heart of the dying Humboldt.
Squawk!! holy cow!!!
I am so jealous of y'all... wish we had snow here in Ft Laud
Quoting Grothar:
Can you still be banned if you are the only one on the blog????????

ROFL! Grothar, we're all worn out from shoveling, otherwise dealing with, and playing in the snow! Really, snoozing on and off here.

Definition of Irony: Nat. Geo. Channel is showing...
DOOMSDAY: Book of Revelations

lol lol lol
Quoting jerseygrl:
PcolaDan just for you!



We're well over a foot now--the ruler sunk under the snow! The firepit has pretty well disappeared as well. Still snowing pretty hard, but I think it's slowed a little bit. My poor little doggie (Bichon/Toy Poodle mix) took one look at all the snow and promptly lifted his leg on the porch post!

We'll see what the morning brings.


Thanks, too cool (pun intended). Didn't know you would need a yard stick to measure this one did you? :)
Quoting P451:
As you guys have followed, I had 9" of snow at roughly 7PM here in New Jersey. I cleared my driveway. This is now a 3 hour accumulation of 9.5" on top of that once cleared and well sheltered surface (no drifting here) ... giving me a rough guess of 18.5" and counting.



From 7-8pm = 2.5in
From 8-9pm = 4in
From 9-10pm = 3in

Yeah, amazing!!!!



Wow, and just looked at the winds in your area. There has got to be some huge drifting going on (pull out the snowmobile). Reminds me of a blizzard in ND. I had as high as 5' in my driveway. Neighbor across the street cleaned his with a broom. :(
Oh, snow has stopped here in MD just north of DC; it stopped between 9 & 10p EST.
I'll measure stuff on top of grill in morning; as I stated in previous post it's at least 20" in backyard.

I looked at Bordonaro's post for NWS area measurements; closest measurement to me, about a mile away, is 16"...but two measurements close by are each 20". I don't think the 1922 record for 22" has been broken for this area :(
out on long island
223. P451
I'm in Tinton Falls NJ. I've got 20 inches of snow - I can tell this via a garden fence whose cross sections are 4" tall each and five of the 9 of them are buried all the way around evenly. That's 20".

Meanwhile, my forecast, updated at 10PM, calls for an additional 12-18 inches of snow.

I mean, WOW. If that happens, WOW.

Kid in a Candy store here as they say.
224. P451
Quoting PcolaDan:


Wow, and just looked at the winds in your area. There has got to be some huge drifting going on (pull out the snowmobile). Reminds me of a blizzard in ND. I had as high as 5' in my driveway. Neighbor across the street cleaned his with a broom. :(


I have a couple of 30-36" or so drifts that I can guess. I think that will get a lot worse as the winds start hitting 40-50mph later tonight...not to mention the additional 12-18" they're predicting.

This is just an epic storm.
Quoting P451:
I'm in Tinton Falls NJ. I've got 20 inches of snow - I can tell this via a garden fence whose cross sections are 4" tall each and five of the 9 of them are buried all the way around evenly. That's 20".

Meanwhile, my forecast, updated at 10PM, calls for an additional 12-18 inches of snow.

I mean, WOW. If that happens, WOW.

Kid in a Candy store here as they say.


That is just ridiculous! I thought we were supposed to be the epicenter of the storm!

I'm so glad YOU'RE having fun with it. I gladly handover the "crown" if you "win" it.

Local met just said this officially goes into our local record books at #6 of all time snow highs. Not too shabby...ENOUGH for me!
226. P451
20" officially in Belmar, NJ to my SE. I've got 20"

Had 11" in the past 4 hours.

Will post images tomorrow.



Obama raced clock, chaos, comedy for climate deal
As clock ticked in Copenhagen, Obama raced from room to room, bent on a deal

By Charles Babington and Jennifer Loven, Associated Press Writers , On Saturday December 19, 2009, 6:23 pm EST

Link
Wow, been driving around the last hour or so. Never seen the roads this bad ever in my life. Visibility is easily below a 1/4 mile. We're at 13 inches and counting now. Have to find measuring tape because my ruler is only 12 inches long. Snow rate is averaging 2.5 inches an hour right now. Winds are howling right now, it's a constant roar. No thundersnow though :( Oh and my location is Oakdale, Long Island.

13 inches and counting
I'm actually really jealous of all you east coast folks. I'd take half of that snow amt - nay, a quarter of it - to ensure a white Christmas here in very brown SW Ontario.
All of this snow is so wonderful to read and hear about. My 6-yr old granddaughter who lives in Groton, CT already has her sled out to use tomorrow. From what I can tell, they are in the warning area for a 18-24" snowfall.

Everyone becareful if you have to go out..roads will be tracherous for a few days and then another, lighter snowfall is predicted for Christmas. Sure wish I was having a white Christmas..oh well, at least we got rain - lol!
To all my friends in NOLA. The Saints played an awesome game. A game to be proud of!

981MB/28.97" L as of 9PM CST, NCEP UPDATE link below, totals betweeb 5" at JFK AP, NYC to numerous reports over 20". This storm is truly unremarkable.

Link
I'm estimating 18 inches of snow here in Long Beach on Long Island. My fence is 4 feet high and the snow is just below the half way mark. The roads are insane, I've seen numerous accidents on my corner within the last 2 hours. 20 minutes ago I saw someone abandon their car on the main street to my south. The wind has to easily be 40+ kts on the gust. I tried to walk to the convenience store down the block from me, couldn't make it half way because the snow was so deep and the wind was blasting me in the face. I wouldn't be surprised if we saw another 8+ inches before this storm moves off. This is truly rare for this barrier island. I've seen some big storms, especially the blizzard in 96, but this one is in a class of its own.
Issued by The National Weather Service
New York City, NY
12:02 am EST, Sun., Dec. 20, 2009

... BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EST SUNDAY...

A BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EST SUNDAY.

INTENSE LOW PRESSURE TRACKING SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND OVERNIGHT WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW AND HIGH WINDS ACROSS LONG ISLAND. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 18 TO 24 INCHES... WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS AS HIGH AS 30 INCHES... ARE EXPECTED. SNOWFALL RATES OF 3 TO 5 INCHES PER HOUR... ACCOMPANIED BY THUNDER AND LIGHTNING... ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE HEIGHT OF THE STORM OVERNIGHT. WIND GUSTS OF UP TO 50 MPH ARE ALSO EXPECTED... WHICH ALONG WITH THE HEAVY SNOW WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO UNDER A QUARTER MILE AT TIMES... AND CAUSE SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW.

SIGNIFICANT VARIATION IN SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WARNING AREA BASED ON WHERE THE HEAVIEST BANDS OF SNOW DEVELOP.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A BLIZZARD WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS AND POOR VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY. THIS WILL LEAD TO WHITEOUT CONDITIONS... MAKING TRAVEL EXTREMELY DANGEROUS. DO NOT TRAVEL. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL... HAVE A WINTER SURVIVAL KIT WITH YOU. IF YOU GET STRANDED... STAY WITH YOUR VEHICLE.
235. P451
STILL getting blasted. Just finished a 4th round of shoveling the driveway. Measured some spots.

Got 24" now. 15" in the past 5 hours. Just wow.
Calling it a night here. Loving the pictures. Hope to see more tomorrow. See who wins the I can't get out my door contest. :)
Quoting Grothar:


Link

All I can say is WOW. Ciao.
Quoting stribe37:
I'm actually really jealous of all you east coast folks. I'd take half of that snow amt - nay, a quarter of it - to ensure a white Christmas here in very brown SW Ontario.
we get our turn xmas eve night into the day xmas and maybe even part of boxing day at the moment 15 to 20 cm or 6 to 10 inchest possible for lower lakes with the next system to begin dev on rtn flow off w gom tue affecting lwer lakes eastern seaboard commencing on xmas eve
Holy crap we're up to 19 inches now! 6 inches in the last hour! Snowfall of 6 inches an hour, I've never heard of such a pace before. This is the most snow I've ever seen in my life for Long Island.

Quoting Papagolash:
Holy crap we're up to 19 inches now! 6 inches in the last hour! Snowfall of 6 inches an hour, I've never heard of such a pace before. This is the most snow I've ever seen in my life for Long Island.



I'd predict another 12 inches for you too!
Quoting Papagolash:
Holy crap we're up to 19 inches now! 6 inches in the last hour! Snowfall of 6 inches an hour, I've never heard of such a pace before. This is the most snow I've ever seen in my life for Long Island.


6"/hour?! Sounds more like the crazy Houston rain rates than anything else to me! Hey, if you don't want it, I'll gladly accept it!
Quoting Papagolash:
Holy crap we're up to 19 inches now! 6 inches in the last hour! Snowfall of 6 inches an hour, I've never heard of such a pace before. This is the most snow I've ever seen in my life for Long Island.



There is an uplift axis in the lower level of the atmosphere from central Nassau Co, to Suffolk Co, N into SE CT. People in this area will receive between 24-30", with a possility of up to 35" in a few locations.

This is an extremely rare event. I lived in LI from 1965-1978. I remember the 1968 Lindsay Storm, where my Dad had to burrow out pf the house, through 8' snow drifts.

The 1978 storm dropped about 24" of snow, with 6" falling in 1 hr. It was simply a "whiteout", you could not see more than a couple hundred feet, at the time the wind was not blowing!

Enjoy your EPIC Blizzard of 2009 and stay safe :0)


...WINTER STORM TAKING AIM ON THE CENTRAL U.S. TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

A WINTER STORM APPEARS LIKELY TO BE IMPACTING PARTS OF THE CENTRAL
U.S. HEADING INTO THE CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY. THE TIMING OF THE STORM
IS SUCH THAT IT MAY HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON HOLIDAY
TRAVELERS...THEREFORE IT IS IMPORTANT FOR THOSE PLANNING TRAVEL
THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL U.S. TO CAREFULLY MONITOR FORECASTS OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...WEATHER DATA HAS SUGGESTED THAT A
STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL BE PUSHING INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. WITH MANY
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR A WINTER STORM COMING TOGETHER IN THE
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY TIME FRAME. ADVERSE WINTER WEATHER NOW
APPEARS LIKELY SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE NATIONS MIDSECTION.

THE INITIAL STAGES OF THE STORM ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN IMPACTING THE
PLAINS ON TUESDAY...THEN SPREAD INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
TUESDAY NIGHT. THE STORM WILL CONTINUE ITS INFLUENCE OVER THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AND INTO THURSDAY...BEFORE EXITING THE CENTRAL U.S.
ON CHRISTMAS DAY.

HOWEVER...IT IS EXTREMELY IMPORTANT TO POINT OUT THAT IT IS STILL
MUCH TOO EARLY TO TELL EXACTLY WHEN OR WHERE THE MOST DANGEROUS
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR. WHILE THE FORECAST DATA HAS
CONSISTENTLY POINTED TO STORM DEVELOPMENT...THE EXACT TRACK AND
TEMPERATURE PROFILE OF THE STORM HAS BEEN VARYING A GREAT DEAL.
THESE ARE KEY UNKNOWNS...SINCE A SMALL CHANGE IN TEMPERATURE OR
STORM MOVEMENT OFTEN HAS A TREMENDOUS IMPACT ON THE AMOUNT OF
WINTER WEATHER A GIVEN LOCATION RECEIVES.

IT IS ALSO QUITE POSSIBLE THAT SOME LOCATIONS WILL HAVE CHANGING
PRECIPITATION TYPES...WITH SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN...AND THEN BACK TO
SNOW. EVEN SOME FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET ARE NOT ENTIRELY OUT OF
THE QUESTION.

WE EXPECT NUMERICAL WEATHER DATA TO BEGIN TO CONVERGE ON A PREFERRED
SOLUTION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...SO AGAIN...HOLIDAY TRAVELERS
ARE URGED TO CAREFULLY MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS ON THIS STORM.

The uplife axis is over W Nassau and Suffolk Cos on LI up NE ward into SE CT. That is where the 4-6"/hr snow is falling!!

Man, that yellow band means business!!!
well I have been up since 6 am and I am going to go to bed, y'all have a goodnight, and stay safe! (:

Go Cowboys!!! :P
Quoting 1900hurricane:
Man, that
yellow band means business!!!


This is an event that happens on average, once every 10 yrs or so. This storm will produce some totals of near 36"..
Thanks TornadoDude! I told you your storm was coming :0)!!
So jealous... This is the only thing I have to look forward to:


And that's only if I'm lucky...
Quoting Bordonaro:
Thanks TornadoDude! I told you your storm was coming :0)!!


I think I see a white Christmas ;) later!


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2263
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1132 PM CST SAT DEC 19 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...MA...CT...RI...LONG ISLAND OF NY

CONCERNING...BLIZZARD

VALID 200532Z - 201000Z

SWATH OF HEAVY SNOW WILL SHIFT MORE RAPIDLY NEWD ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT...AND SHOULD BE PRIMARILY OFFSHORE BY
12Z. SNOWFALL RATES FROM 1 TO 2 IN/HR WILL REMAIN COMMON...WITH
EMBEDDED BURSTS TO AROUND 3 IN/HR. HEAVY SNOW SHOULD BE MOST
PERSISTENT FROM ERN LONG ISLAND TO ERN MA...INCLUDING THE BOSTON AND
PROVIDENCE METRO AREAS. OCCASIONAL BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
FROM INVOF ERN LONG ISLAND SOUND ACROSS SERN MA...DIMINISHING
TOWARDS 12Z.

00Z GFS/NAM AND 03Z RUC GUIDANCE ARE CONSISTENT THAT 980 MB SURFACE
CYCLONE CENTERED AROUND 200 ESE ACY WILL ACCELERATE E/NEWD AS
ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE TROUGH EJECTS EWD. THIS WILL RESULT IN STRONG
LOW/MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENTICAL AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT SHIFTING MORE
QUICKLY NE ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND AND ADJACENT OFFSHORE WATERS.
THUS...HEAVY SNOW WILL LIKELY BECOME CONFINED TO COASTAL AREAS OF
SRN NEW ENGLAND BY 12Z. IN THE MEANTIME...INTENSE LIFT WITHIN THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE AND WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT
WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2 IN/HR RATES WITH LOCALIZED CONVECTIVE BURSTS UP TO
3 IN/HR.

OCCASIONAL BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL PEAK DURING THE OVERNIGHT ACROSS
SERN MA/SRN RI/ERN LONG ISLAND WHERE THE TIGHTEST SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND 50-60 KT N/NELYS AT 1 KM AGL LIKELY PERSIST /BASED ON
UPTON NY VWP DATA AND MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS/. LOW-LEVEL FLOW
SHOULD WEAKEN TOWARDS 12Z...RESULTING IN IMPROVING CONDITIONS.

..GRAMS.. 12/20/2009
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
we get our turn xmas eve night into the day xmas and maybe even part of boxing day at the moment 15 to 20 cm or 6 to 10 inchest possible for lower lakes with the next system to begin dev on rtn flow off w gom tue affecting lwer lakes eastern seaboard commencing on xmas eve


That depends if the models verify that track (which one are you looking at, outta curiousity?).

I've seen some take the Low on a track all the way up to the Soo, which means SW Ontario would definitely be in the warm sector. Others I've seen track it just thru the northern part of Ohio, which would put southern Ontario on the snow side of the system.
Just measured, 25 inches. Another 6 inches in an hour. I'm speechless.

I also took a video, going to see how it came out, might post it.
Quoting stribe37:


That depends if the models verify that track (which one are you looking at, outta curiousity?).

I've seen some take the Low on a track all the way up to the Soo, which means SW Ontario would definitely be in the warm sector. Others I've seen track it just thru the northern part of Ohio, which would put southern Ontario on the snow side of the system.

here is a couple hang on i get yeah a zoom in

here is a zoom in on the run



here is 850MB temp wind run
Hey KOTG. I can't seem to get sleepy tonight.

Enjoy the snow all. I don't miss it one bit, but it is exciting weather, to say the least. I'm in a sweatshirt because it's a very chilly 60. LOL. Sorry, even had the thin blood when I was in colder climes.

That Over the hills pic from docs entry is postcard material.

In regards to an older, off-topic post, I did a blog entry on Venona for anyone interested.
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory Number FOUR
PERTURBATION TROPICALE 07-20092010
10:00 AM Réunion December 20 2009
========================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Disturbance 07R (1002 hPa) located at 11.1S 62.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 40 knots. The disturbance is reported as moving west-northwest at 7 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: 2.0/2.0/D1.0/2 4 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
==========================
12 HRS: 11.0S 61.6E - 30 knots (DEPRESSION Tropicale)
24 HRS: 10.8S 61.2E - 35 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modereé)
48 HRS: 11.4S 62.5E - 45 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modereé)
72 HRS: 13.3S 63.5E - 40 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modereé)

Additional Information
=======================
The system monitored last week has globally tracked west-northwest during the last 6 days, without deepening significantly. However, microwave imagery around 0000z (TRMM, F15, F16, Coriolis) show a clear improving of the system's aspect showing a curved band pattern and convection even fluctuating on the infrared animated imagery seems to consolidate. The system undergoes however a northwesterly constraint, shown on the imagery thanks to the cirrus, and most of all tracks to the low level circulation center appearing northwest of the convection. System environment is neutral; low level inflows are established, even still weak equatorwards, upper level divergence as well mainly polewards but a weak to moderate wind shear still exists. The system should however intensify slowly within the next days, as the monsoon inflow become more direct. Numerical Weather Prediction with the speed of motion but at in good agreement with a track changing of direction. The system seems indeed under the steering of two competing flows due to the subtropical ridge, and a ridge located near the equator. The track forecast is based on a consensus of the available Numerical Weather Prediction.

---
resurrection system trying to become "DAVID" again..
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Advice Number 73
TROPICAL CYCLONE LAURENCE, CAT 3 (01U)
3:00 pm AWST December 20 2009
==========================================

At 2:00 pm WST, Severe Tropical Cyclone Laurence, Category 3 (970 hPa) located at 18.3S 120.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 65 knots with gusts of 90 knots. The severe cyclone was estimated to be 165 kms west southwest of Broome and 165 kms north of Wallal moving southwest at 5 knots.

Hurricane Force Winds
=====================
15 NM from the center

Storm Force Winds
==================
25 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
==================
60 NM from the center in northeastern quadrant
70 NM from the center in northwestern quadrant
60 NM from the center in southeastern quadrant
70 NM from the center in southwestern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T4.5/4.5/D1.0/ 24HRS

Severe Tropical Cyclone Laurence is steadily intensifying as it moves southwestwards parallel to the Kimberley coast. It is expected to intensify further overnight and begin moving on a more southerly track towards Eighty Mile Beach tomorrow. People between Bidyadanga and Pardoo are warned of the risk of VERY DESTRUCTIVE winds Monday evening or on Tuesday.

Meanwhile, today a period of gales could develop on the coast between Broome and Wallal.

Heavy rainfall is expected in coastal parts of the west Kimberley and east Pilbara over the next twenty four hours.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
==================================
A Cyclone WARNING continues for coastal areas from Broome to Port Hedland.

A Cyclone WATCH continues for adjacent inland parts of the southwest Kimberley and north Pilbara, extending inland as far as Telfer.

The Cyclone WARNING for Beagle Bay to Broome has been cancelled.

Forecast and Intensity
=========================
12 HRS: 18.7S 120.4E - 80 knots (CAT 3)
24 HRS: 19.2S 120.5E - 90 knots (CAT 4)
48 HRS: 20.3S 121.2E - 60 knots (CAT 2)
72 HRS: 23.0S 125.3E - 35 knots (CAT 1)

Additional Information
=========================
TC Laurence has shown some signs of intenisfication in the last few hours. A very weak and ragged eye feature is evident on the last couple of images and radar imagery shows the eye wall beginning to form to the north and east of the centre. EIR analysis on the 0430 image gave a DT of 5.0 but the FT/CI is set to agree with the PAT of 4.5. AMSU CH7/8 images show a steady improvement in the thermal anomaly and continued improvement is evident in recent microwave imagery.

TC Laurence has gone through a structural change since it came off the coast and the eye wall has a radius of around 30nm measured at around 4km AGL via radar, compared with the much smaller inner feature of its previous incarnation.

Laurence continues to track to the southwest with a weak mid-level ridge to the south that is likely to erode overnight. Motion should slow and become more southerly towards the coast by Monday. The likelihood of a severe cyclone impact along Eighty Mile Beach remains very high. In the longer term the system is expected to be caught in an upper westerly flow with a short wave feature that comes through on Tuesday., causing the system to accelarate across the continent on Wednesday.
Quoting SQUAWK:


Here ya go Doug. Fresh from KG VA.





I had to go to work. Back now and going to bed. Thanx for posting the pics. Do some more tomorrow if ya can. Merry Christmas all!
Quoting 954FtLCane:
I am so jealous of y'all... wish we had snow here in Ft Laud
NOT!!!!

Hey, u can go to where the snow is.... don't call it down here! lol
Morning
Rough day on the Cape!

Blizzard Warning
Statement as of 4:02 AM EST on December 20, 2009


... Blizzard Warning remains in effect until 1 PM EST this
afternoon...

A Blizzard Warning remains in effect until 1 PM EST this
afternoon.

This Blizzard Warning is for central and southern Rhode Island...
southeast Massachusetts including the cape and islands.

Snow will fall heavy at times with rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour
during the early morning. Damaging wind gusts between 50 and 60 mph
across the cape and islands as well as along the Plymouth County East
Coast will produce blizzard conditions due to the combination of
heavy snow and blowing snow. Across interior southeast Massachusetts
and interior Rhode Island... wind gusts to around 40 mph will also
produce near whiteout conditions at times. Isolated thunder snow
could result in brief isolated snowfall rates between 2 and 3 inches
per hour until daybreak. The wetter snow across the cape and islands
may cause additional scattered power outages through the early morning.

The snow will begin to lessen in intensity from west to east by
around mid morning.

Storm total snowfall amounts of 12 to 16 inches are forecast across
all of Rhode Island... southeast Massachusetts... and the upper cape.
Near 10 inches is forecast for Marthas Vineyard and the Outer Cape. On
Nantucket... a wetter snow will reduce snow totals to between 6 and 10 inches.

Light snow may linger across Cape Cod... Marthas Vineyard and
Nantucket through early afternoon.

Travel will remain dangerous and is not recommended through the morning.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Blizzard Warning is issued when sustained winds or frequent
gusts over 35 mph are expected along with considerable falling
and/or blowing and drifting snow reducing visibilities to below
one quarter mile for at least three consecutive hours. Whiteout
conditions are expected. Those venturing outdoors may become lost
or disoriented... so persons in the warning area are advised to
stay indoors. Also... be sure to check all external vents on your
house because they can lead to a Carbon monoxide risk if blocked
by snow drifts.


Morning MissNadia,
Haven't seen you in ages,

What is thunder snow? don't think I have heard that one before
Quoting keywestbrat:


What is thunder snow? don't think I have heard that one before

It's exactly what it says - thunder while it's snowing. It's always so bizarre when it happens. Only thing different is the thunder sounds somewhat muffled because of the snow.
Three good shakers in Twain, Indonesia and the Rift Vally.

Quoting keywestbrat:
Morning MissNadia,
Haven't seen you in ages,

What is thunder snow? don't think I have heard that one before

Nevermind I looked it up

I am on the computer Duh

Thundersnow, also known as a winter thunderstorm or a thunder snowstorm, is a rare thunderstorm with snow falling as the primary precipitation instead of rain. It commonly falls in regions of strong upward motion within the cold sector of extratropical cyclones between autumn and spring when surface temperatures are most likely to be near or below freezing. Variations exist, such as thundersleet, where the precipitation consists of sleet or ice rather than snow
Quoting Greyelf:

It's exactly what it says - thunder while it's snowing. It's always so bizarre when it happens. Only thing different is the thunder sounds somewhat muffled because of the snow.


Thanks, I also looked it up.
Blizzard Warning
Statement as of 7:17 AM EST on December 20, 2009


... Blizzard Warning remains in effect until 11 am EST this
morning...

A Blizzard Warning remains in effect until 11 am EST this
morning.

Snow and areas of blowing snow with wind gusts of 35 to 45 mph
will continue through mid morning... with the snow tapering off to
flurries by late morning. Total accumulations of 12 to 18
inches... except 18 to 24 inches over eastern Suffolk and southern
New London counties are expected... with locally higher amounts
possible.



Public Information Statement
Statement as of 6:12 am EST on December 20, 2009


The following are unofficial observations taken during the past 24 hours
for the storm that has been affecting our region. Appreciation is extended
to Highway departments... cooperative observers... Skywarn spotters
and media for these reports. This summary is also available on our
home Page at weather.Gov/NYC

********************storm total snowfall********************

Location storm total time/date comments
snowfall of
(inches) measurement


Connecticut

... Fairfield County...
Darien 9.5 400 am 12/20 CT dot
New Canaan 6.5 400 am 12/20 CT dot
Bridgeport 6.0 1150 PM 12/19 coop
Danbury 4.0 400 am 12/20 CT dot

... Middlesex County...
Haddam 13.0 400 am 12/20 CT dot
Old Saybrook 11.0 400 am 12/20 CT dot

... New Haven County...
Milford 9.3 400 am 12/20 CT dot
New Haven 8.5 400 am 12/20 CT dot
New Haven County 8.5 400 am 12/20 CT dot
North Branford 8.0 200 am 12/20 public
Beacon Falls 5.5 400 am 12/20 CT dot
Meriden 5.0 421 am 12/20 CT dot
Waterbury 4.0 400 am 12/20 CT dot
Southbury 3.5 400 am 12/20 CT dot

... New London County...
Groton 15.0 400 am 12/20 CT dot
Colchester 13.0 400 am 12/20 CT dot
Norwich 13.0 400 am 12/20 CT dot
Lisbon 11.0 334 am 12/20 Skywarn spotter

New Jersey

... Bergen County...
Paramus 9.5 515 am 12/20 Skywarn spotter
Rutherford 8.0 515 am 12/20 Skywarn spotter
Ridgewood 6.0 400 am 12/20 Skywarn spotter

... Essex County...
Newark 8.0 100 am 12/20 FAA contract observer

... Hudson County...
Jersey City 10.0 515 am 12/20 Skywarn spotter
Harrison 9.5 515 am 12/20 Skywarn spotter

... Passaic County...
Clifton 11.0 515 am 12/20 Skywarn spotter
Ringwood 10.0 515 am 12/20 Skywarn spotter

... Union County...
Elizabeth 11.0 515 am 12/20 Skywarn spotter
Clark 10.0 515 am 12/20 Skywarn spotter
Westfield 10.0 200 am 12/20 public

New York

... Kings County...
Sheepshead Bay 13.2 430 am 12/20 Skywarn spotter

... Nassau County...
Floral Park 12.6 430 am 12/20 public
Long Beach 12.5 330 am 12/20 Skywarn spotter
New Hyde Park 9.1 200 am 12/20 public

... New York County...
NYC/Central Park 9.9 100 am 12/20 Central Park Zoo
Manhattan 9.5 210 am 12/20 Skywarn spotter

... Orange County...
Tuxedo Park 6.0 545 am 12/20 Skywarn spotter

... Queens County...
NYC/JFK Arpt 10.9 100 am 12/20 FAA contract observer
NYC/La Guardia 6.9 100 am 12/20 FAA contract observer

... Suffolk County...
Upton 21.0 310 am 12/20 NWS office
Holbrook 18.5 310 am 12/20 public
Commack 18.2 500 am 12/20 Skywarn spotter
Medford 18.0 330 am 12/20 Skywarn spotter
Islip 17.1 300 am 12/20 FAA contract observer
Lindenhurst 15.3 438 am 12/20 Skywarn spotter
Orient 15.0 200 am 12/20 public

... Westchester County...
Armonk 6.0 530 am 12/20 Skywarn spotter

Evening all. Geez stay safe all please, that's a lot of snow in a lot of area's there.
AwakeInMaryland.... you've got mail.
Public Information Statement
Statement as of 7:56 am EST on December 20, 2009


The following are unofficial observations taken during the past 24 hours
for the storm that has been affecting our region. Appreciation is extended
to Highway departments... cooperative observers... Skywarn spotters
and media for these reports. This summary is also available on our
home Page at weather.Gov/NYC

********************storm total snowfall********************

Location storm total time/date comments
snowfall of
(inches) measurement


Connecticut

... Fairfield County...
Darien 10.5 600 am 12/20 CT dot
New Canaan 10.0 600 am 12/20 CT dot
Bridgeport 9.0 700 am 12/20 coop
Danbury 6.0 600 am 12/20 CT dot

... Middlesex County...
Haddam 14.0 600 am 12/20 CT dot
Old Saybrook 12.0 600 am 12/20 CT dot

... New Haven County...
New Haven 10.5 600 am 12/20 CT dot
Milford 10.0 600 am 12/20 CT dot
New Haven County 8.5 400 am 12/20 CT dot
North Branford 8.0 200 am 12/20 public
Beacon Falls 7.5 600 am 12/20 CT dot
Meriden 6.0 600 am 12/20 CT dot
Southbury 6.0 600 am 12/20 CT dot
Waterbury 6.0 600 am 12/20 CT dot

... New London County...
Norwich 17.0 600 am 12/20 CT dot
Groton 16.0 600 am 12/20 CT dot
Colchester 14.0 600 am 12/20 Skywarn spotter
Groton Long Point 13.0 500 am 12/20 Skywarn spotter
New London 12.0 605 am 12/20 Skywarn spotter
Lisbon 11.0 334 am 12/20 Skywarn spotter

New Jersey

... Bergen County...
Paramus 9.5 515 am 12/20 Skywarn spotter
Rutherford 8.0 515 am 12/20 Skywarn spotter
Ridgewood 6.0 400 am 12/20 Skywarn spotter

... Essex County...
Newark 8.0 100 am 12/20 FAA contract observer

... Hudson County...
Jersey City 10.0 515 am 12/20 Skywarn spotter
Harrison 9.5 515 am 12/20 Skywarn spotter

... Passaic County...
Clifton 11.0 515 am 12/20 Skywarn spotter
Ringwood 10.0 515 am 12/20 Skywarn spotter

... Union County...
Elizabeth 11.0 515 am 12/20 Skywarn spotter
Clark 10.0 515 am 12/20 Skywarn spotter
Westfield 10.0 200 am 12/20 public

New York

... Kings County...
Sheepshead Bay 13.2 430 am 12/20 Skywarn spotter

... Nassau County...
Floral Park 13.5 600 am 12/20 Skywarn spotter
Long Beach 12.5 330 am 12/20 Skywarn spotter
New Hyde Park 9.1 200 am 12/20 public

... New York County...
NYC/Central Park 10.9 700 am 12/20 Central Park Zoo
Manhattan 9.5 210 am 12/20 Skywarn spotter

... Orange County...
Tuxedo Park 6.0 545 am 12/20 Skywarn spotter

... Queens County...
NYC/JFK Arpt 10.9 100 am 12/20 FAA contract observer
NYC/La Guardia 6.9 100 am 12/20 FAA contract observer

... Suffolk County...
Upton 24.9 700 am 12/20 NWS office
Sag Harbor 20.0 730 am 12/20 Skywarn spotter
Sayville 19.0 700 am 12/20 NWS employee
Holbrook 18.5 310 am 12/20 public
Commack 18.2 500 am 12/20 Skywarn spotter
Medford 18.0 330 am 12/20 Skywarn spotter
Islip 17.1 300 am 12/20 FAA contract observer
Lindenhurst 15.3 438 am 12/20 Skywarn spotter
Orient 15.0 200 am 12/20 public

... Westchester County...
Hastings-On-Hudson 9.0 600 am 12/20 Skywarn spotter
Armonk 6.0 530 am 12/20 Skywarn spotter

273. P451
Still snowing in Tinton Falls, NJ.

Got 28" that I can tell. Heading out to clean up and take photos. Will post later.
274. IKE
Quoting P451:
Still snowing in Tinton Falls, NJ.

Got 28" that I can tell. Heading out to clean up and take photos. Will post later.


Good lord...2+ feet of snow.

Nah...glad I live in sunny NW Florida. Low this morning...34.2.

0.00 inches of snow on the ground:)
Iv'e been looking at some stuff and if there will be another gulf low after the arctic blast comes through couldent that mean conditions just like on the 4th for SE Texas?
276. unf97
Good morning everyone!

I hope all of our fellow bloggers up in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast Are staying safe this morning during this incredible storm. Unbelievable snow accumulations of over 2 feet in some areas!

WOW!

I echo Ike's sentiment of being extremely fortunate living here in Jax, FL, where I had a morning low of 36 degrees. Max temps today expected to be at mid 50s. Should finally reach the freezing mark tomoroow morning for the first time this season.

Be safe today for all in the path of this blizzard as it will finally move away off the NE US coast late today.

Have a wonderful day.
WOW, what a storm, looks like a former tropical system that just became tropical. This is one for the record books, the storm of THIS century!
Naw, nope, the GFS cannot be correct






Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
here is a zoom in on the run



Nothing is showing up as a link to click on to.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

here is a couple hang on i get yeah a zoom in



As an aside, more models this AM are predicting the Low is moving west and up thru Western Lake Michigan... so that snow forecast of your 1 model for SW Ontario appears to have either changed or is a lone outlier.
Quoting stribe37:


As an aside, more models this AM are predicting the Low is moving west and up thru Western Lake Michigan... so that snow forecast of your 1 model for SW Ontario appears to have either changed or is a lone outlier.


HERE IS 850MB TEMP WIND VECTORS

Quoting AstroHurricane001:


About water vapour, yes it does compose a major part of our greenhouse gases, but this is also an important positive feedback mechanism as warming temperatures increase water vapour concentrations in the atmosphere, leading to further warming, even though human activity does not increase water vapour directly, except through smokestacks. However, water vapour concentrations have been rising steadily recently, and this is very hard to model because not only does it increase greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, but it also produces more clouds and thereby reduces the amount of sunlight reaching Earth's surface.

We are actually not in a cooling trend, but our temperatures have been fairly stable for the past 5 years and CO2 emissions fairly stable for the past two years. This is also because of a strong solar minimum that has persisted since late 2005. However, in that same time period, Katrina struck New Orleans, Arctic sea ice reached a new record minimum, a chunk of the Wilkins Ice shelf collapsed, methane was released from melting permafrost, Arctic islands reached 20C in spring, dust storms swept through the Gobi desert, the North Atlantic Drift faltered for 10 days, methane clathrates began releasing from the Arctic Ocean, two El Ninos and one La Nina developed, tornado outbreaks struck Southern Ontario, Manitoba set a new humidex record and a record for the strongest Canadian tornado, the 18,000-year-old Chacaltaya Glacier in Peru vanished, Super Typhoon Nida comes close to setting a new size record, sea level rise accelerated, geese were seen flying north in late autumn in Canada...the list goes on. In this time period, however, public concern over global warming has also gone down. Now, imagine what will happen when solar activity and economic emissions of CO2 pick up again. This could be a double whammy, erasing the mask that hid the temperature rise of this time. This is why I think we really do need to do something about the global warming problem, and we really don't have much time. We could easily surpass the 1C mark in temperature rise since 1900 by 2015.

Denial and delay are dangerous when facing a global issue. Individuals need not only to act but also inspire others to act as well. If we want to have a future for the next generation then the time for action is NOW.

Looks like a one-sided list of not-climate to me, with no mention of PDO changes, record low temps, etc. So, tail pipes caused Katrina, huh? And dust storms in the Gobi Desert? LOL. And the cost of health care. And the housing market dive? And the grounds in the bottom of my coffee cup are directly attributable to Bush not signing Kyoto.
*Short version: Boy do you take AGW and events over the top*

With all of that, you do realize every one of those that you might call an alarming event could have happened regardless, right?

Alarmism, fear, misattribution are dangerous when facing a global issue, too.

(And I saw geese flying south, too)
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
Naw, nope, the GFS cannot be correct







Whuuuuuuttttt?!?
GFS = muy loco
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
450 AM CST SUN DEC 20 2009

CORRECTION IS FOR DAY DESIGNATION OF SHORT AND LONG TERM ALSO
ADDED SOME WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR TUESDAY.

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...CLOUD COVER REMAINS CONFINED
TO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THIS MORNING AS MID LEVEL TROUGH SWEEPS
SOUTHEAST THROUGH TEXAS...PROVIDING WEAK LIFT. CLOUD DECK AROUND
10KFT FROM MID LEVEL LIFT IS CAUGHT UNDER ELEVATED CAP. SC AND
NEAR-SFC CONDITIONS DRIER...SO NO LOW CLOUDS OR FOG THIS MORNING.
TROUGH QUICKLY EXITS TO THE SOUTHEAST...WITH LIFT ENDING AND CLOUD
COVER GRADUALLY THINNING. TEMPS TODAY REMAIN NEAR NORMAL IN THE
UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70...WITH AGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS. SKIES WILL
REMAIN CLEAR OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...BUT LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL BEGIN
TO INTRODUCE LLVL MOISTURE TO THE REGION. FOG FORMATION IS
EXPECTED...AND MAY BE LOCALLY DENSE AS MODELS SHOWING INVERSION
SETTING UP AROUND 1KFT. BREEZY ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING WARMER
TEMPS FOR MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...COMPLEX WEATHER
PATTERN SHAPING UP FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST
WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL EVOLUTION OF MODEL SOLUTIONS.
WEST COAST TROUGH DEEPENS TUESDAY WITH A POTENT UPPER LOW TO
DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND SOUTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY.
MAIN WEATHER ON TUESDAY WILL BE STRONG SOUTH WINDS AND WARM
TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES. THEN A COLD
FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH DEEP SOUTH TEXAS LATE WEDNESDAY BUT GUIDANCE
SUGGEST THE COLDEST AIR TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE VALLEY AS UPPER LOW
BECOMES MORE WESTERLY THEN NORTHWEST. FORECAST SHOWS A STEADY
FALLING OF TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY AS LARGE TROUGH GETS CARVED
OUT OVER THE LOWER 48. HOW COOL OR COLD IT GETS IS STILL IN
QUESTION...BUT EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO SETTLE APPROXIMATELY 5 TO 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON CHRISTMAS DAY. AS FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER SEA
FOG COULD DEVELOP MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING BUT LOW LEVEL
JET MIGHT BE TO STRONG FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT SO WILL LEAVE OUT OF
FORECAST FOR NOW. MOISTURE FIELDS ARE NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE IN
ADVANCE OF WEDNESDAYS FRONT BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MIGHT BE
SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS SO WILL LEAVE THE SLIGHT
CHANCES IN FOR WEDNESDAY.

LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE NOW INDICATING A MUCH STRONG FRONT TO PUSH
WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION SATURDAY WITH MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR MOVING
INTO NORTH TEXAS. IF THIS SCENARIO DOES DEVELOP DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
COULD EXPERIENCE THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON BOTH
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH POSSIBLE FREEZING TEMPERATURES ACROSS ALL
AREAS BY SUNDAY MORNING.
PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK LOOKS EVEN MORE
COMPLEX AND IF PRECIP DOES DEVELOP THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF
FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES
. LETS HOPE NOT.

Quoting reedzone:
WOW, what a storm, looks like a former tropical system that just became tropical. This is one for the record books, the storm of THIS century!


lol! We're still getting it on the Cod. We've got freezing fog right now.
Quoting atmoaggie:

Looks like a one-sided list of not-climate to me, with no mention of PDO changes, record low temps, etc. So, tail pipes caused Katrina, huh? And dust storms in the Gobi Desert? LOL. And the cost of health care. And the housing market dive? And the grounds in the bottom of my coffee cup are directly attributable to Bush not signing Kyoto.
*Short version: Boy do you take AGW and events over the top*

With all of that, you do realize every one of those that you might call an alarming event could have happened regardless, right?

Alarmism, fear, misattribution are dangerous when facing a global issue, too.

(And I saw geese flying south, too)


Most of these I think can be indirectly attributable to global warming, and yes I think the record cold over North America may have been influenced by it as well. Global warming may not have caused these events, but it's possible that it increased the likelihood of these happening. I said I saw geese flying NORTH, in December, in Ontario.

About the so-called "alarmism", it's a major problem when trying to communicate to the public. If the projected outcomes are not scary enough, people will dismiss it as not a big deal; if it's too alarming, the public's denial machine will set in, and they'll dismiss you as alarmist. Many of the possible effects of global warming are indeed very alarming, but that doesn't nessecarily mean they're alarmist. Hope is a better messenger than fear, but we only have a few more years before global warming goes haywire, so we all need to take collective action if we want a liveable future.
Has the GFS been hitting the rum and egg nog a little too hard?
Here are some "morning after" photos. Best I can figure, we've got close to 18", although my neighbor said 14.5". Either way, it's too damn much snow!

At least the driveway is plowed, walks are shoveled, and the doggie has a path to his poopy spot!


Bye bye Bundt cake!


When I get up the energy to go outside, I'll measure on top of the jacuzzi--easily the best spot for an accurate measurement.

All of you still getting snow, be safe!
Quoting AstroHurricane001:


Most of these I think can be indirectly attributable to global warming, and yes I think the record cold over North America may have been influenced by it as well. Global warming may not have caused these events, but it's possible that it increased the likelihood of these happening.

That sure is a far cry from listing a bunch of scary events and implying that they were caused by my tailpipe.
Quoting AstroHurricane001:
About the so-called "alarmism", it's a major problem when trying to communicate to the public. If the projected outcomes are not scary enough, people will dismiss it as not a big deal; if it's too alarming, the public's denial machine will set in, and they'll dismiss you as alarmist.

Well, I have to tell you, some of those weather-not-climate events you blame on CO2 prolly do get you dismissed as an alarmist, if you care.
And my personal opinion is that embellishment and exaggeration should be limited to the tabloids. Never should they be allowed in any public policy decisions nor science. Ever. Period.
Quoting atmoaggie:

That sure is a far cry from listing a bunch of scary events and implying that they were caused by my tailpipe.

Well, I have to tell you, some of those weather-not-climate events you blame on CO2 prolly do get you dismissed as an alarmist, if you care.
And my personal opinion is that embellishment and exaggeration should be limited to the tabloids. Never should they be allowed in any public policy decisions nor science. Ever. Period.


What embellishment and exaggeration? Just because they sound alarming does not automatically mean they're exaggerated! Sure, predictions and projections about global warming may prove to be off the mark, but otherwise how can we know what the future effects of global warming may be and what decisions to make based on that?

Climate is what you expect, weather is what you get. Climate change is only a change in averages of weather. But we don't experience averages, we only experience the extremes.
You have to love winter snow.. as long as your only looking at pictures of someone elses house :)
Quoting AstroHurricane001:


Most of these I think can be indirectly attributable to global warming, and yes I think the record cold over North America may have been influenced by it as well. Global warming may not have caused these events, but it's possible that it increased the likelihood of these happening. I said I saw geese flying NORTH, in December, in Ontario.

About the so-called "alarmism", it's a major problem when trying to communicate to the public. If the projected outcomes are not scary enough, people will dismiss it as not a big deal; if it's too alarming, the public's denial machine will set in, and they'll dismiss you as alarmist. Many of the possible effects of global warming are indeed very alarming, but that doesn't nessecarily mean they're alarmist. Hope is a better messenger than fear, but we only have a few more years before global warming goes haywire, so we all need to take collective action if we want a liveable future.


Here's a small comment from the peanut gallery. The best way to get the public involved is to explain that the climate changes are a combination of BOTH natural occurances combined with man made interference, and stop the bickering. Show the little steps that can be taken and show the big steps that are being taken to help. Stop the arguing because it turns people off and they don't want to listen to anything.
295. jipmg
so its still in the 50s in miami..

the forecast was 69
Baltimore is digging out!
The Primary roads look really good, but all the secondary roads are crap.

Huge drifts everywhere, about 20-22" of snow in the back yard in Baltimore City.

Everyone is out, digging.
Quoting jerseygrl:
Here are some "morning after" photos. Best I can figure, we've got close to 18", although my neighbor said 14.5". Either way, it's too damn much snow!

At least the driveway is plowed, walks are shoveled, and the doggie has a path to his poopy spot!


Bye bye Bundt cake!


When I get up the energy to go outside, I'll measure on top of the jacuzzi--easily the best spot for an accurate measurement.

All of you still getting snow, be safe!


WOW, what great pics. That's a lot of snow. Stay safe all. Goodnight

P.S AwakeInMaryland.... you've got mail.
Orcasystems "You have to love winter snow.. as long as your only looking at pictures of someone elses house :)"

Very true! Wish I was looking at someone else's house... But here are some more pix of MY house!


Officially 16 inches (I know, not a great picture, but you get the general idea...)


And we have 16" on top of the jacuzzi




The bushes have all but disappeared, and the Christmas lights are just buried.

At least we'll have a White Christmas!
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
HERE IS 850MB TEMP WIND VECTORS



Thanks: those work. You're using the GFS model I see. Am I reading that 850mb temp/wind vector right where this model appears to be saying the temps aloft would remain cold enough aloft for the precip to fall in frozen form during the Christmas Eve/Christmas Day time frame in Southern Ontario during this next storm event? (I see one frame where temps aloft do briefly seem to get mild near the north shore of Lake Erie).
Quoting klaatuborada:


Here's a small comment from the peanut gallery. The best way to get the public involved is to explain that the climate changes are a combination of BOTH natural occurances combined with man made interference, and stop the bickering. Show the little steps that can be taken and show the big steps that are being taken to help. Stop the arguing because it turns people off and they don't want to listen to anything.

That is exactly my problem with saying "global warming caused such and such extreme" when the relative portion of man's input is so very unknown. Is it 99% of measured warming trends? 90%? 50%? 10%? 1%?
Only models have put a number to that question.

Then, moving forward with that great big unknown, we are trying to say this or that will happen or is happening. This or that scary, horrible event will become more common if we don't do something right now.

And if man's contribution is 1%? (given positive and negative feedbacks and the changing nature of climate, yes, is possible)
Quoting AstroHurricane001:
But we don't experience averages, we only experience the extremes.

WHAT!?! We experience average weather all the time, or something very close to it.
I could not do the TV weatherman bit. The ~5 interesting weather days of the year in any given location could not possibly make up for ~360 exceedingly boring ones.

Oh, and a few minutes ago, I saw squirrels running DOWN a pine tree. Your geese thing? Nature is exceedingly variable. I don't think animals are as predictable as you seem to.
Quoting jerseygrl:
Orcasystems "You have to love winter snow.. as long as your only looking at pictures of someone elses house :)"

Very true! Wish I was looking at someone else's house... But here are some more pix of MY house!


Officially 16 inches (I know, not a great picture, but you get the general idea...)


And we have 16" on top of the jacuzzi




The bushes have all but disappeared, and the Christmas lights are just buried.

At least we'll have a White Christmas!

Wait till tonight... the lights on the bushes under the snow will look quite nice when they are lite up. I had that a few years ago... and hopefully not this year.
here comes my blizzard :P

Morning again all.

Just a quick peek at the blog. The weather is great today, with temp so far only at 75!!! Ahhh..... refreshing..... lol. And while the airport is reporting "overcast", the sun is shining quite nicely where I am.... cool NW breezes.... no wonder I can't sit inside to enjoy the blog....

Later!
Quoting jerseygrl:
Orcasystems "You have to love winter snow.. as long as your only looking at pictures of someone elses house :)"

Very true! Wish I was looking at someone else's house... But here are some more pix of MY house!


Officially 16 inches (I know, not a great picture, but you get the general idea...)


And we have 16" on top of the jacuzzi




The bushes have all but disappeared, and the Christmas lights are just buried.

At least we'll have a White Christmas!


Thank you for sharing your pictures. I was hoping for these. While I don't envy the shoveling, I do miss the beauty of fresh snow. And now the sun is out too. :)
I posted this about people shovelling snow last year.. I think it very fitting for some people today :)

Diary of a Demented Snow Shoveler
Quoting tornadodude:
here comes my blizzard :P

T-Dude, will Tennessee receive some severe weather from this next storm? I know it is early to ask such a question, just take a stab at it.
One can use the "SEARCH" box and get a 5 day forecast for anywhere

Memphis 5 day forecast

Tuesday night through Thursday...wet weather can be expected with
possible heavy rain and flooding. Latest 00z models were in better
agreement with the handling of a powerful low pressure system that
will impact the area. Generally...went with a blend for timing of
the system between the slower 00z European model (ecmwf) and faster 00z GFS. With
deep southerly flow...increased temperatures several degrees...
towards the 00z mexmos.


The main hazard during this time frame appears to be heavy
rainfall and possible flooding. 00z GFS depicted precipitable water values 1.1 to
1.4 inches...about 220 to 300 percent of average. 00z GFS and
European model (ecmwf) depicted rainfall amounts 1 to 3 inches over the entire
forecast area with possibly locally higher amounts Tuesday night
through Thursday. A Flash Flood Watch may be necessary during
this time frame.


Other hazards during this time frame include strong winds and
possibly even a few strong thunderstorms...though confidence of
these hazards remain low as not sure if strong gusts aloft will
mix to the surface and instability appears to be marginal at best.
Winter weather potential has significantly decreased during this
time frame with a much warmer solution expected
Quoting hydrus:
T-Dude, will Tennessee receive some severe weather from this next storm? I know it is early to ask such a question, just take a stab at it.


I think there is a possibility, but it really depends on the track of the storm. I think the farther north the storm tracks, the better chance you have of getting severe weather, but it is pretty early to tell.



ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 200956
SPC AC 200956

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0356 AM CST SUN DEC 20 2009

VALID 231200Z - 281200Z

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE NOW IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT
CONCERNING THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF A POWERFUL UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM
THAT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE SCNTRL STATES EARLY IN THE DAY 4 TO 8
PERIOD. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD ESTABLISH A
WARM SECTOR BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/DAY 4 FROM FAR EAST TX EXTENDING
NEWD INTO THE OZARKS AND EWD INTO CNTRL MS. ALTHOUGH CONVECTION MAY
BE ONGOING EARLY WEDNESDAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY IN
RESPONSE TO THE LOW-LEVEL JET...THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT APPEARS LIKELY TO OCCUR LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
MAIN UPPER-LEVEL LOW BECOMES NEGATIVELY-TILTED IN THE LOWER MS
VALLEY. AN IMPRESSIVE MID-LEVEL JET SHOULD PRODUCE STRONG WIND
FIELDS ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY SUGGESTING A SEVERE WEATHER EVENT
IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. WILL
MAINTAIN A SEVERE THREAT AREA FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER
EVENT FOR DAY 4. A THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE
LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS THE UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM LIFTS NEWD
ACROSS THE OH AND TN VALLEYS. QUESTIONS REMAIN CONCERNING MOISTURE
RETURN AND INSTABILITY FURTHER NEWD ALONG THE STORM TRACK AND WILL
NOT OUTLOOK AN AREA BEYOND DAY 4.

..BROYLES.. 12/20/2009
Quoting tornadodude:


I think there is a possibility, but it really depends on the track of the storm. I think the farther north the storm tracks, the better chance you have of getting severe weather, but it is pretty early to tell.

Thanks for you reply. I had already checked SPC, maps & models. I am just gathering input from the blog.
Quoting hydrus:


no problem, hope you can get some more feedback
STORM SUMMARY NUMBER 08 FOR EASTERN U.S. WINTER STORM
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
1000 AM EST SUN DEC 20 2009

...BLIZZARD CONDITIONS CONTINUE ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...

WINTER STORM WARNINGS AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES REMAIN IN
EFFECT ALONG THE TENNESSEE AND NORTH CAROLINA BORDER...AND ALSO
FOR INTERIOR SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND INCLUDING HARTFORD AND
BOSTON

BLIZZARD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN NEW
ENGLAND FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF BOSTON

FOR A DETAILED GRAPHICAL DEPICTION OF THE LATEST
WATCHES...WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES...PLEASE SEE WWW.WEATHER.GOV

AT 1000 AM EST...A 977 MB...28.85 INCH...LOW PRESSURE CENTER WAS
LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...APPROXIMATELY 150
MILES SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD. NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER
RADARS AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATED A BAND OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY SNOW FALLING TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE SURFACE LOW...EXTENDING
FROM THE COAST OF MAINE SOUTHWARD TO SOUTHEASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS...AND ALSO LONG ISLAND. LIGHTER SNOW WAS FALLING
FARTHER INLAND. IN ADDITION TO THE SNOW...SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35
TO 45 MPH WERE OCCURRING ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.

...SELECTED STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL IN INCHES FROM 100 AM EST FRI DEC
18 THROUGH 400 AM EST SUN DEC 20...

...CONNECTICUT...
NORWICH 17.0
GROTON 16.0
STORRS 15.0
MANSFIELD 14.5
HADDAM 14.0
OLD SAYBROOK 12.0
LISBON 11.0
DARIEN 10.5
NEW HAVEN 10.5
MILFORD 10.0

...KENTUCKY...
HARLAN 7.0
BEATTYVILLE 6.0
WILLIAMSBURG 1NNW 6.0

...MASSACHUSETTS...
SANDWICH 16.0
ATTLEBOROUGH CITY 15.0
MIDDLEBOROUGH 15.0
WAREHAM 15.0
FRANKLIN 14.0
BOURNE 13.5
YARMOUTH 12.0
WAYLAND 11.5
NORWOOD 10.0
BOSTON 7.0

...NEW JERSEY...
ATCO 24.0
MEDFORD 24.0
NEWPORT 24.0
TABERNACLE 24.0
JACKSON 23.5
BLACKWOOD 22.0
SICKLERVILLE 22.0
SWEDESBORO 22.0
TOMS RIVER 21.0
TURNERSVILLE 20.5
CHERRY HILL 20.0
MOUNT HOLLY 16.6
ATLANTIC CITY 12.1

...NEW YORK...
UPTON 24.9
SAG HARBOR 20.0
NORTH BABYLON 19.0
COMMACK 18.2
ISLIP 17.1
MOUNT SINAI 16.1
ORIENT 15.0
STONY BROOK 14.9
FLORAL PARK 13.5
MASSAPEQUA 11.6
BROOKLYN MARINE PARK 11.5
LIDO BEACH 11.5
JFK ARPT 10.9
NYC CENTRAL PARK 10.9

...PENNSYLVANIA...
PHILADELPHIA 23.2
HILLTOWN 20.5
BROGUE 20.0
QUARRYVILLE 20.0
FOLCROFT 19.0
WEST CALN 18.6
SECANE 18.5
PEQUEA 18.0
UPPER CHICHESTER 18.0
ORRTANNA 17.1
WALLINGFORD 17.0

...RHODE ISLAND...
WEST GREENWICH 20.0
PORTSMOUTH 18.0
SOUTH KINGSTOWN 18.0
COVENTRY 17.0
HOPE 17.0
BARRINGTON 16.0

...SELECTED PEAK WIND GUSTS IN MILES PER HOUR EARLIER IN THE
EVENT...

...MASSACHUSETTS...
PROVINCETOWN MUNI ARPT 64
NANTUCKET 63
BARNSTABLE 62
HYANNIS 54
FALMOUTH 52

...SELECTED STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL IN INCHES WHERE THE EVENT HAS
ENDED...

...WASHINGTON, DC...
AMERICAN UNIVERSITY 16.0
THE MALL 16.0

...DELAWARE...
WILMINGTON 17.0
HARTLY 15.5
NEWARK 13.9
WOODSIDE 12.8

...MARYLAND...
OLNEY 23.3
BETHESDA 23.0
COLUMBIA 23.0
DERWOOD 23.0
SIMPSONVILLE 1 SSE 22.9
GAITHERSBURG 1 NW 22.0
GERMANTOWN 22.0
BALTIMORE-BWI 21.1
GLENMONT 21.0
SMITHSBURG 21.0
ANNAPOLIS 20.8
MILLINGTON 20.0
FREDERICK 19.0

...NORTH CAROLINA ...
ROBBINSVILLE 12 W 24.0
ASHEVILLE 17.0
BOONE 16.0
EAST MARION 15.0
RUTHERWOOD 15.0
FLEETWOOD 14.0
WAYNESVILLE 13.8
WEST JEFFERSON 13.0
MARSHALL 7 N 12.0
GREENSBORO 4.5

...OHIO...
BRIDGEPORT 5.0

...VIRGINIA...
INDIAN VALLEY 26.0
MUSTOE 25.4
FISHERVILLE 25.0
ROCKY BAR 3 ENE 24.0
CROZET 1SSE 23.0
COVINGTON 22.6
CENTREVILLE 1 SE 22.0
ALEXANDRIA 19.0
DULLES INTERNATIONAL 18.0
REAGAN NATIONAL ARPT 16.4

...WEST VIRGINIA...
MARLINTON 26.0
FRIARS HILL 25.0
HORSE SHOE RUN 25.0
BECKLEY 24.0
HENDRICKS 24.0
JUMPING BRANCH 24.0
CANAAN VALLEY STATE 3SW 22.0
WILLIAMSBURG 22.0
GRANDVIEW 21.0
CHARLES TOWN 18.0

...SELECTED STORM TOTAL RAINFALL IN INCHES WHERE THE EVENT HAS
ENDED...

...SOUTH CAROLINA...
MCCLELLANVILLE 5.96
MOUNT PLEASANT 1 NE 5.38
ISLE OF PALMS 4.80
CHARLESTON 3.93
FORT JOHNSON 3.51
NORTH MYRTLE BEACH 2.96
GOOSE CREEK 4 SE 2.90
HUGER 3 NNE 2.80
BEAUFORT 2.55
WITHERBEE 2.44


THE SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE
DAY ON SUNDAY. SNOW ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND NEW ENGLAND
WILL SLOWLY TAPER OFF AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE COAST.
HOWEVER...HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG WINDS COULD POTENTIALLY CAUSE
LOCALIZED WHITEOUT CONDITIONS ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH
EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL TOTALS OF 10 TO 20
INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS OF UP TO
2 FEET POSSIBLE WHERE HEAVY SNOW PERSISTS THE LONGEST.

THE NEXT STORM SUMMARY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL
PREDICTION CENTER AT 400 PM EST. PLEASE REFER TO YOUR LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS
EVENT.

HAMRICK
Here in Dover NH we got 5+ in with light snow still coming sown
The good thing is we have very little wind or it would be pretty scary because the snow is not that heavy
Quoting atmoaggie:

That is exactly my problem with saying "global warming caused such and such extreme" when the relative portion of man's input is so very unknown. Is it 99% of measured warming trends? 90%? 50%? 10%? 1%?
Only models have put a number to that question.

Then, moving forward with that great big unknown, we are trying to say this or that will happen or is happening. This or that scary, horrible event will become more common if we don't do something right now.

And if man's contribution is 1%? (given positive and negative feedbacks and the changing nature of climate, yes, is possible)

WHAT!?! We experience average weather all the time, or something very close to it.
I could not do the TV weatherman bit. The ~5 interesting weather days of the year in any given location could not possibly make up for ~360 exceedingly boring ones.

Oh, and a few minutes ago, I saw squirrels running DOWN a pine tree. Your geese thing? Nature is exceedingly variable. I don't think animals are as predictable as you seem to.


Man's contribution is definitely more than 1%. In fact, the natural contribution to recent global warming is likely no more than one-third, as solar activity cannot explain the warming post-1975. The low levels of solar activity have kept temperatures stable for the past five years, but once it picks up again I estimate that we'll get past the 1C (1.8F) mark for warming since 1900 by 2014. Link Link
Meanwhile, halfway around the world:

My sister lives in Antakya, Turkey (40 miles from Syria, in south central Turkey). They have had rain and wind like we have had snow and wind. People have had their roofs blown off, her housekeeper lost the steps to the front door of her house. Friends who live along the river had water seeping into their living room. My sister's house has a 3rd floor terrace. The drains for the terrace became blocked with leaves and other debris from the storm, and the terrace flooded with 6 inches of water, which seeped into the house. It flooded the 3rd floor and cascaded down the steps to the 2nd floor, shorting out the electric to part of the house. Her brother-in-law's garage flooded, and his car died from the water damage.

All of a sudden, 16 inches of snow is looking really really good.
Quoting hydrus:
T-Dude, will Tennessee receive some severe weather from this next storm? I know it is early to ask such a question, just take a stab at it.


Since the HPC has tracked this next storm system much further south and east, heavy rain is more likely in Nashville followed by snow.:)
Good afternoon!

It looks like a winter wonderland here in NY. And sounds like one too... :)

P.S. I encourage you to drop by Weather Chat!
Quoting weatherbro:


Since the HPC has tracked this next storm system much further south and east, heavy rain is more likely in Nashville followed by snow.:)
The gem model shows a strong line of storms with this next low. Could be another soaker for the south too.
321. P451
28 Inches in Tinton Falls, NJ.

Had 9 Inches by 7PM
Had an ADDITIONAL 15 Inches by Midnight
An ADDITIONAL 4 Inches overnight.



The GFS must be on rum. They want to give the Florida Peninsula a blizzard Christmas Day on into the weekend due to a developing low a stalled frontal boundary well-southeast of Florida.

Heck! That'd be the ultimate Christmas present. But if true, I doubt it'll be that big lol(maybe a dusting or a few inches but I won't kid myself). Other modals are a bit confused so I don't know.:)

On a reality note, central Florida should get some severe weather on Christmas Eve followed by an arctic blast(according to some modals, the coldest air of the season)!!! If consistent, you ain't seen nothin' yet!
Snow Vehicle Concept (1924)

You guys up there could use this now. Even better than a snowmobile.
Quoting weatherbro:
The GFS must be on rum. They want to give the Florida Peninsula a blizzard Christmas Day on into the weekend due to a developing low a stalled frontal boundary well-southeast of Florida.

Heck! That'd be the ultimate Christmas present. But if true, I doubt it'll be that big lol(maybe a dusting or a few inches but I won't kid myself). Other modals are a bit confused so I don't know.:)

On a reality note, central Florida should get some severe weather on Christmas Eve followed by an arctic blast(according to some modals, the coldest air of the season)!!! If consistent, you ain't seen nothin' yet!
It should Be a interesting storm to watch.
Quoting PcolaDan:
Snow Vehicle Concept (1924)

You guys up there could use this now. Even better than a snowmobile.
What is that called?
Quoting AstroHurricane001:


Man's contribution is definitely more than 1%. In fact, the natural contribution to recent global warming is likely no more than one-third, as solar activity cannot explain the warming post-1975. The low levels of solar activity have kept temperatures stable for the past five years, but once it picks up again I estimate that we'll get past the 1C (1.8F) mark for warming since 1900 by 2014. Link Link

There is far more to it than just solar activity. Ya left out the PDO, well known to leave a warming signal, too. And we were in the positive from ~1979 to ~2003 (mostly).



We have not measured enough of these cycle well enough to know their relative contributions...
Quoting atmoaggie:

Looks like a one-sided list of not-climate to me, with no mention of PDO changes, record low temps, etc. So, tail pipes caused Katrina, huh? And dust storms in the Gobi Desert? LOL. And the cost of health care. And the housing market dive? And the grounds in the bottom of my coffee cup are directly attributable to Bush not signing Kyoto.
*Short version: Boy do you take AGW and events over the top*

With all of that, you do realize every one of those that you might call an alarming event could have happened regardless, right?

Alarmism, fear, misattribution are dangerous when facing a global issue, too.

(And I saw geese flying south, too)


After all the above looky what I found on AFP:

Cold snap causes holiday travel chaos in Europe

by Dave Clark Dave Clark – Sun Dec 20, 10:34 am ET
PARIS (AFP) – Tens of thousands of European travellers were stranded Sunday in rail stations, traffic jams and airports as heavy snow and ice caused massive disruption at the start of the Christmas holiday season.

At least 19 people froze to death, mainly in Poland and mostly homeless people or drinkers caught out in temperatures that were glacial across Europe, plunging as low as minus 33 Celsius (minus 27 Fahrenheit) in parts of Germany.


Oh , and go to this BGS web site, they describe
some of what we are experiencing, and I can't
image the British Government funding deniers!

http://www.bgs.ac.uk/search/advsearch.cfm?q=ice%20ages&qFileType=all&qCollection=all&start=1

select "How an ice age began"
Quoting hydrus:
What is that called?


Not really sure. Pretty ingenious I think. Just found this:
This is a 16mm demo film of the Armstead Snow Motors Company concept snow vehicle. It was filmed in 1924. The concept is applied to a Fordson tractor and a Chevrolet automobile. The original film is part of the collections of the Archives of Michigan. The text of the original patent is at: tinyurl.com/ckmj3o

All the while..the warming continues unabated,..since the CO2 Fairies and Methane Pixies are off for the Holidays.

There's no Harry Potter wands to "poof' away the emissions pouring into our Atmosphere,24/7/365.

Where do the pollutants go I must ask..?



Merry Xmas
Quoting PcolaDan:


Not really sure. Pretty ingenious I think. Just found this:
This is a 16mm demo film of the Armstead Snow Motors Company concept snow vehicle. It was filmed in 1924. The concept is applied to a Fordson tractor and a Chevrolet automobile. The original film is part of the collections of the Archives of Michigan. The text of the original patent is at: tinyurl.com/ckmj3o


Which led me to this, The Spiral Track Autonomous Robot (STAR). Yours for only $15000. But hey, it can even be equipped with Micropower Impulse Radar (MIR) land mine detection technology. :)
Quoting weatherbro:
The GFS must be on rum. They want to give the Florida Peninsula a blizzard Christmas Day on into the weekend due to a developing low a stalled frontal boundary well-southeast of Florida.

Heck! That'd be the ultimate Christmas present. But if true, I doubt it'll be that big lol(maybe a dusting or a few inches but I won't kid myself). Other modals are a bit confused so I don't know.:)

On a reality note, central Florida should get some severe weather on Christmas Eve followed by an arctic blast(according to some modals, the coldest air of the season)!!! If consistent, you ain't seen nothin' yet!



What run of the GFS? I looked at the 12Z I didn;'t see anything like your are describing.
PcolaDan- It handles incredibly well and has some speed too.
Some medium-sized flakes of snow coming down now at my location in S. Ontario, on the backside of the storm now over the Atlantic and looking like a hurricane. It's probably going to snow like this for a few more hours, and we'll get close to an inch I think. But that's nothing compared to what has fallen in the US eastern seaboard!
Quoting AstroHurricane001:
Some medium-sized flakes of snow coming down now at my location in S. Ontario, on the backside of the storm now over the Atlantic and looking like a hurricane. It's probably going to snow like this for a few more hours, and we'll get close to an inch I think. But that's nothing compared to what has fallen in the US eastern seaboard!


And the GEM/Canadian model is forecasting a high of 8 on Christmas Eve w/rain and above freezing mix on Christmas Day :( Hopefully that model is wrong.