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Bitter cold -65°F temperatures hit Alaska

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 5:13 PM GMT on January 30, 2012

If you're wondering who's getting all the cold air the lower 48 states is missing during this non-winter of 2012, the answer during the past week has been Alaska. Our 49th state is used to intense winter cold, but not like what they've experienced during the past week. Friday night and Saturday night, temperatures plummeted to -50°F and -51°F in Fairbanks, marking the first time since 1999 the city had seen back-to-back minus fifty nights. The low temperature so far today at the Fairbanks International Airport has been -44°F, giving the city sixteen days of -40°F temperatures so far this month. Since 1906, there have only been three years (1906, 1934, and 1971) with more 40 below days during the month of January. At forty below zero, the air is so cold that the water vapor condenses out into ice crystals, which float in the air creating a low-visibility fog. A large area of Alaska experienced bitter cold temperatures of -50 to -65°F Sunday morning:

FORT YUKON CO-OP..............65 BELOW
KANDIK RIVER CO-OP............64 BELOW
FORT YUKON AIRPORT..........62 BELOW*
BETTLES.................................60 BELOW**
HUSLIA.....................................60 BELOW
MANLEY HOT SPRINGS............60 BELOW
NORTH POLE/WOODSMOKE....60 BELOW
CHICKEN CO-OP.....................59 BELOW
GALENA AIRPORT....................58 BELOW
TANANA...................................58 BELOW
CIRCLE HOT SPRINGS..........58 BELOW
DELTA 20 SE CO-OP...............58 BELOW
COLDFOOT................................57 BELOW
EAGLE CO-OP.........................57 BELOW
KALTAG...................................56 BELOW
GOLDSTREAM CREEK..........55 BELOW
ARCTIC VILLAGE..................54 BELOW
NENANA..................................54 BELOW
SALCHA..................................54 BELOW
FAIRBANKS AIRPORT..............51 BELOW
DELTA JUNCTION/FT GREELY......50 BELOW
LAKE MINCHUMINA.................50 BELOW
MCGRATH.................................50 BELOW

*TIED DAILY RECORD LOW OF 62 BELOW SET IN 1909
**EXCEEDS DAILY RECORD LOW OF 58 BELOW SET IN 1989

The cold snap is expected to continue through mid-week, with more -65°F temperatures possible in the interior valleys north of Fairbanks. Warmer air is expected to arrive state-wide by Thursday.


Figure 1. It's a tradition! Photo taken Sunday, January 29, 2012, by one of our more adventurous wunderphotographers. Image credit: wunderphotographer TerezkaSunshine.

All-time U.S. low temperature record threatened?
The coldest temperature ever recorded in the U.S. was a -80°F (-62.2°C) reading from Prospect Creek, AK (about 180 miles north of Fairbanks) on January 23, 1971. A weather station just a few miles from Prospect Creek, the Jim River DOT site, appears to have recorded a low temperature between -78°F and -79°F Saturday morning (January 28, 2012), shortly before the weather station lost power. Keeping the power going at -70 is very tough, and it is not a surprise to see that the station lost power during this extraordinary cold snap. Power just returned this morning to the site, where the temperature was -66°F at 7 am AKST. Wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt is corresponding with Alaska's state climatologist to get more information on whether the data during the power outage will be recoverable, and how reliable these near-record low temperatures might be.

Jeff Masters
54°F Below
54°F Below
This capture was shot just outside of North Pole , Alaska. It was a very cold and slow night for aurora hunting. One of these days I will learn to leave earlier in the evening.
SunDog
SunDog
Looking due south down a side road, not too long after noon. Chilly night last night, down to -51.
Dangerous Temps
Dangerous Temps
This was shot at 0345 on 29, Jan. It was painfully cold.

Winter Weather

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

I feel bad for our Alaskan compatriots having to deal with that extended misery. But then again, I appreciate them holding the freezer door shut for us in the Lower 48. Many thanks, guys!
Is that photoshopped? Or is that girl really in -49f temps, kneed deep snow jumping in a bikini?
Where's my below normal temperatures and snow???? Well, time to move to Alaska to get some winter....
Not very often you see a CDO develop from an outer band, but there you go...(actually, CDO's forming from an outerband is a common characteristic of annular hurricanes)



I cant even imagine -50... I'm freezing at 20...
thanks for the post! Very interesting that the frigid cold air hasn't been distrubited around the northern hemisphere.

I'm cold at 60F I can't imagine -60F!!!
New global warming study casts doubt on “missing heat” hypothesis:

Some measurements have shown that despite taking in more energy than we’re letting out, neither surface temperatures nor ocean temperatures have been warming at a corresponding rate. Notably, researchers Kevin Trenberth and John Fasullo of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), have referred to this as “missing heat” or “missing energy.” Trenberth and Fasullo, along with their NCAR colleague Gerald Meehl and others, published a paper last year that sought to explain where the missing heat might be going.

Here’s how the NCAR crew described the missing heat idea in the journal Nature Climate Change: “If there are time periods when globally averaged surface temperatures are not increasing, this excess energy must go elsewhere, either to heat the atmosphere and land, to melt ice or snow, or to be deposited in the subsurface ocean and manifested as changes in ocean temperature and thus heat content.”

Observed changes in top-of-the-atmosphere radiation and upper-ocean heating consistent within uncertainty
Hmmm, the first time Fairbanks has had back to back -50 F temps since 1999... that winter was abnormally mild too for a good part of the lower 48 states too. I hope the freezer door will open soon and we can have some cold air and snow. The positive side of the mild winter has been much lower heating bills.
We've gone a whole month in 2012 without a tropical system in the Atlantic? What a bust this season is!
Winter is alive and well across the globe

Severe cold snap kills 36 in eastern Europe
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:
We've gone a whole month in 2012 without a tropical system in the Atlantic? What a bust this season is!


Maybe in February...some models are picking STD near Yucatan...
Looking like El Nino





January 24 aurora borealis filmed near Tromso Norway in real time. No time lapse or fast forwarding. Posting this again because it's so cool.

Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Intresting conversations on the the previous blog.

One dude is a fruitcake.
i've seen you bake a pretty wacky cake too... tread lightly on the judgments perhaps?
Compared to the rest of the state, we are having a heat wave here in Valdez, AK :D

Valdez Weather at a Glance
Valdez Airport (PAVD)
Elevation
118 ft
Temperature
7 °F
Feels Like 7 °F
Intresting conversations on the the previous blog.


Interesting that someone cant spell "interesting."

"LOL" : )
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Intresting conversations on the the previous blog.

One dude is a fruitcake.


Guilty as charged.
Quoting PolishHurrMaster:

some models are picking STD near Yucatan...
I nearly did that during spring break one year. :)
Quoting Neapolitan:
I nearly did that during spring break one year. :)


lol!
Quoting PolishHurrMaster:


Maybe in February...some models are picking STD near Yucatan...

I hope not. Do the models get those?
HUGE Deal for Galveston's Pleasure Pier

After Hurricane Ike destroyed the Flagship Hotel and sat dormant for years, this will be completed by Memorial Day this year.

Quoting RTSplayer:
Is that photoshopped? Or is that girl really in -49f temps, kneed deep snow jumping in a bikini?
I think it is photoshopped. The ground does not look disturbed. Even saying that the ground would not get disturbed because of the low temperature, could someone really jump that high without slipping on the ice?
I thought it was interesting that there so many anti-American globalists here who agreed that a "world court" that would supercede U.S. sovereignty is a good idea, fruitcake might have been a little over the line, but I agree with the sentiment.
How much oil does it take to keep people alive in that climate? I bet people heat their houses and run a refrigerator inside too.
In the latest Climate Predictiobn Center weekly update,it has Nino 3.4 at -1.1C,the same as last week's update.

Link
Quoting bappit:

I hope not. Do the models get those?


I'm sure plenty of models have them...
Quoting BeCoolOrBeCastOut:
I thought it was interesting that there so many anti-American globalists here who agreed that a "world court" that would supercede U.S. sovereignty is a good idea, fruitcake might have been a little over the line, but I agree with the sentiment.


I'm no anti american globalist, but a crime against the whole world's people and the ecosystems that support us all, like forcing global warming on the whole future, forever; that's a crime of global interest that requires a global court. It's a crime against humanity, not just the USA.
Quoting Patrap:
Intresting conversations on the the previous blog.


Interesting that someone cant spell "interesting."

"LOL" : )



You know I can spell. Just a typo.
This Era is ended.

When they try the Trojan Horse thing in March,

Ignore it, it's a ruse to try to keep the veil in Place.

Quoting Minnemike:
i've seen you bake a pretty wacky cake too... tread lightly on the judgments perhaps?



Says you.
Quoting Patrap:
This Era is ended.

When they try the Trojan Horse thing in March,

Ignore it, it's a ruse to try to keep the veil in Place.



Trojan Horse?

Did I miss something?
From what my brother, who lived there for about a  year and a half has told me, Alaskans are pretty savvy when it comes to energy usage.  Have to be, it doesn't come cheep.  They may get to watch it pumped and spilled but since they have no refineries have to bring usable stuff from some where else at a premium for transport.  Look at the Nome story from this year.
Quoting wxmod:
How much oil does it take to keep people alive in that climate? I bet people heat their houses and run a refrigerator inside too.

Quoting BeCoolOrBeCastOut:
I thought it was interesting that there so many anti-American globalists here who agreed that a "world court" that would supercede U.S. sovereignty is a good idea, fruitcake might have been a little over the line, but I agree with the sentiment.



The name of the blog tells all you need to know.
Lots far left types post here. Outnumber the righties at least two to one.
The programming runs deep in these ones, Luke.


Those who are RH-, beware these guy's.
Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog


The most respected entry on the Internet, by far.

Quoting Patrap:
The programming runs deep in these ones, Luke.


Those who RH-, beware these guy's.


Dude, come back to reality... the water's warmer here. (lol yes that is an intended pun)
I avoid the FAUX reality of Fla. and Virginia,, exclusively,
Thanx
Freezer door is opening in western Europe starting tomorrow. After a very mild winter temps will drop to below 0F by Thursday in Stuttgart. Normally doesn´t get that cold even in a bad year.
I'm about as Left as anyone posts here and I can tell you for a fact that I have yet to see a "far left" post on this blog.

As a friend from Europe once told me:  "Watching US politics is about as fun as watching a foot ball match where the object of the game is to see who can get the ball closest to the center-line."
Quoting PensacolaDoug:



The name of the blog tells all you need to know.
Lots far left types post here. Outnumber the rightys at least two to one.

Quoting airman45:
Freezer door is opening in western Europe starting tomorrow. After a very mild winter temps will drop to below 0F by Thursday in Stuttgart. Normally doesn´t get that cold even in a bad year.


Read post 11
I'll have you to know I resemble that remark!
Quoting Patrap:
I avoid the FAUX reality of Fla. and Virginia,, exclusively,
Thanx

There's more dimensions with which to measure a person's political and fiscal views than just two.

It's kind of silly and meaningless anyway, without reference to an objective, scalar standard of how individuals were ranked and evaluated in each dimension.
I'm sure Jahari's window must be next?
Quoting RitaEvac:


Read post 11


I did, thanks. It all moves westward from Siberia when this happens. It will begin tomorrow here (western Germany) and in the UK a day or two later.
Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:
I'll have you to know I resemble that remark!



We should do a Wunderground stooge's animated series.


OK Curly!!
The political spectrum is not a straight line, it is Horseshoe or Omega shaped, the labels don't matter to me, I see the far left and far right as welfare-warfare nanny-state collectivists at either end of the Omega, with individualism and the inalienable rights of man at the top of the Omega.

I think there a narrow use for an international criminal court, Bill Kristol, Robert Kagan , Paul Wolfowitz and the rest of the PNAC/FPI crew of limp-wristed Straussian neo-Trotskyites for example should be tried at the Hague for their war crimes, Cheney/Bush and Mr. Nobel War is Peace prize winner O'Bomber after that, that is the only proper role for a world court, anything other crimes ought to be prosecuted in the country in which the alleged crimes were perpetuated, if it happened in the U.S., and they try to bring it to a world court, that's a violation of the 6th amendment.
About 100 opposite of AK, StL approaching tie of record high of 67, currently 66. Also, 30th anniversary of the Blizzard, 13" @ Lambert, numerous 20 plus in area though.

Edit: Still 66 @ 3:30, looks like will come up short. 66 was enough earlier this month, but not today.
Quoting PensacolaDoug:



The name of the blog tells all you need to know.
Lots far left types post here. Outnumber the righties at least two to one.
sorry you feel so lonely.. gee, if only there were some more normal folk like you around here... says i
Now dat's a well baked cake.  ;^)~
Quoting BeCoolOrBeCastOut:
The political spectrum is not a straight line, it is Horseshoe or Omega shaped, the labels don't matter to me, I see the far left and far right as welfare-warfare nanny-state collectivists at either end of the Omega, with individualism and the inalienable rights of man at the top of the Omega.

I think there a narrow use for an international criminal court, Bill Kristol, Robert Kagan , Paul Wolfowitz and the rest of the PNAC/FPI crew of limp-wristed Straussian neo-Trotskyites for example should be tried at the Hague for their war crimes, Cheney/Bush and Mr. Nobel War is Peace prize winner O'Bomber after that, that is the only proper role for a world court, anything other crimes ought to be prosecuted in the country in which the alleged crimes were perpetuated, if it happened in the U.S., and they try to bring it to a world court, that's a violation of the 6th amendment.

Quoting PensacolaDoug:



Lots far left types post here. Outnumber the righties at least two to one.


LOL. Define "lots."

If you are referring to discussions of climate change, having actual scientists correct scientific misinformation does not make someone "far left" - nor far right.
Quoting ScottLincoln:


LOL. Define "lots."

If you are referring to discussions of climate change, having actual scientists correct scientific misinformation does not make someone "far left" - nor far right.


I didn't realize if you weren't pro AGW then you aren't a scientist.
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:
We've gone a whole month in 2012 without a tropical system in the Atlantic? What a bust this season is!


ROFL
Quoting PensacolaDoug:



The name of the blog tells all you need to know.
Lots far left types post here. Outnumber the righties at least two to one.


Doug, ride it easy.

Mother Nature doesn't poll our politics. She doesn't care. She just does her thing and if we can survive, seems unlikely at this point, we can come along for the ride.
I didn't realize if you weren't pro AGW then you aren't a scientist.

Well, I are one of those, or at least I was last I looked. I'm not "pro" AGW, in fact I'd be just as happy if it went away. I accept AGW as the best available hypothesis to explain the data. I accept it to the point of walking to work in preference to using gasoline. I accept it unless and until somebody (somebodies) come(s) up with a better idea. Lots of non-AGW ideas are out there, but when they're tested, they don't stand up.
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


I didn't realize if you weren't pro AGW then you aren't a scientist.
Not supporting AGWT doesn't automatically make you not a scientist any more than supporting it automatically makes you one. But if you're anti-science and anti-truth, you're not a scientist--no matter how many diplomas you have hanging on your wall.
img src="">
Quoting yqt1001:
Far left: ideal communism (communal society)
Far right: fascism

Both of the extremes aren't too popular in the world, and any states that used them as an ideology botched them up tons. The USSR was more of a moderate-extreme left, as the state replaced the business man. Fascism was actually more neutral (0.5 on the scale I believe) than Obama (Obama being near moderate-right).

So no, not much far-left or far-right on this blog as the ideal ideologies of fascism and communism aren't popular.





(Stalin believed in true communism, but didn't implement it, instead he implemented a system where he would benefit the most)

This is where I stand:

Is there a true definition of fascism?
Not actually a "blizzard" but I think I remember channel 2 coming on at 9 pm that night and saying maybe 2 inches total, when there was already 5 inches on the ground and thunder-snow! LOL! All said and done there was 19 inches by 9am. It looked like someone was using a snow "salt shaker" and the sky was flashing deep blue with lightning and rumbling with muffled thunder every half hour or so. A couple of awnings collapsed on the house down the street from the weight of the snow. I remember digging snow 'tunnels' to get around (I was 10 at the time) and walking down the middle of the 4 lane streets with no cars around anywhere. The first flakes were the size of silver dollars and it took 5-10 minutes for the first 2 inches to fall.

Quoting dabirds:
About 100 opposite of AK, StL approaching tie of record high of 67, currently 66. Also, 30th anniversary of the Blizzard, 13" @ Lambert, numerous 20 plus in area though.

Edit: Still 66 @ 3:30, looks like will come up short. 66 was enough earlier this month, but not today.
"Pythons apparently wiping out Everglades mammals."

Link

And I'm sure plenty of wading birds too.

Only a matter of time until...

Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Is there a true definition of fascism?


Apparently yes. What's not clear is whether fascism is to be classified as "right". The Wikipedia page on fascism appears reasonable as a starting point for inquiry.
Belief has nothing to do with data. That's the whole problem with anti science folks (on this blog they are paid oil company lobbyists). They are trying to confuse people about what data is and is not. Data is data and data shows what data shows.
I know recently I have been posting in doubt of AGW, but after doing some research of my own and looking at the possible hypothesises, it is the most logical explanation for the recent extreme weather and obvious climate changes in the Arctic. It also explains the fact of recent record high temperatures outnumbering record lows by almost 20-1 this winter. There does need to be more observations and research to confirm it, but I do think that something is going on here, and it is being caused indirectly or directly by mankind.

Like, I literally spent all morning and afternoon reading scientific literature to make a conclusion of my own.
(Obama being near moderate-right).


What a very strange claim to make.

Take any of the continua on which we divide left/right and President Obama (and Joe Biden) are well to the left.

Women's rights, gay rights, workers' rights, "right to choose", health care for all, school equality, Social Security and Medicare for seniors, environmental protection, and on and on and on....

You draw a false line, I'm afraid. You must confuse being a pragmatic liberal with being a Chamber of Commerce, "give my kids the advantage", "don't worry about the environment/climate" type.

Quoting BobWallace:


What a very strange claim to make.

Take any of the continua on which we divide left/right and President Obama (and Joe Biden) are well to the left.

Women's rights, gay rights, workers' rights, "right to choose", health care for all, school equality, Social Security and Medicare for seniors, environmental protection, and on and on and on....

You draw a false line, I'm afraid. You must confuse being a pragmatic liberal with being a Chamber of Commerce, "give my kids the advantage", "don't worry about the environment/climate" type.



Well according to this he places here:



And besides, with the rise of welfare states during the Cold War, neutral has moved over a lot and many things you mentioned (especially gay rights, worker rights, school equality and environmental protection) aren't considered to be socialist when you aren't American. Yes, Obama has a left bias in comparison to republicans, but he isn't a socialist unlike what FOX proclaims.


the time has come
Quoting WxGeekVA:
I know recently I have been posting in doubt of AGW, but after doing some research of my own and looking at the possible hypothesises, it is the most logical explanation for the recent extreme weather and obvious climate changes in the Arctic. It also explains the fact of recent record high temperatures outnumbering record lows by almost 20-1 this winter. There does need to be more observations and research to confirm it, but I do think that something is going on here, and it is being caused indirectly or directly by mankind.

Like, I literally spent all morning and afternoon reading scientific literature to make a conclusion of my own.


If you're serious about this, google topics such as "How fast is Greenland melting," and study the top 5 or 10 articles it finds.

You can also find a lot of good information and further links here.


try this:

See middle of the article for extrapolation of monthly sea ice volumes over the next 5 to 10 years.

It's real.

The only real debate any more is how bad it's going to be and how soon...that sort of thing.
Quoting snotly:
Not actually a "blizzard" but I think I remember channel 2 coming on at 9 pm that night and saying maybe 2 inches total, when there was already 5 inches on the ground and thunder-snow! LOL! All said and done there was 19 inches by 9am. It looked like someone was using a snow "salt shaker" and the sky was flashing deep blue with lightning and rumbling with muffled thunder every half hour or so. A couple of awnings collapsed on the house down the street from the weight of the snow. I remember digging snow 'tunnels' to get around (I was 10 at the time) and walking down the middle of the 4 lane streets with no cars around anywhere. The first flakes were the size of silver dollars and it took 5-10 minutes for the first 2 inches to fall.

Granted, just going by something I heard on radio today. I was north in Chambana then, believe we had enough wind for Blizzard, one of few U of I cancellations if memory serves, but that might have been another, tend to run together at this point. Never forget those 20' drifts in March '78 though. Few other times in late 70s as well.
Quoting yqt1001:


Well according to this he places here:



And besides, with the rise of welfare states during the Cold War, neutral has moved over a lot and many things you mentioned (especially gay rights, worker rights, school equality and environmental protection) aren't considered to be socialist when you aren't American. Yes, Obama has a left bias in comparison to republicans, but he isn't a socialist unlike what FOX proclaims.


OK, if you want to define "Left" as socialism and right as, what "unregulated capitalism" then perhaps. But that's not how most of us define left/liberal. Liberal has nothing to do with socialism, socialism is an economic theory (and one which almost everyone on the left views as a failed theory). Anyone who lived in a commune in the '60s can tell you that socialism is a piece of cr@p. Socialism fails for the same reason that unconstrained capitalism and libertarian-ism fail, too many people are too greedy.

Personally I, and every liberal I know, define liberalism as a belief in equal rights for everyone and a fair opportunity for everyone to achieve their goals. And an adequate safety net so that none of us have to lie dying in the gutter if we have some bad luck.

Based on that definition I'd put PBO and Joe Biden far to the liberal side.

Quoting BobWallace:


OK, if you want to define "Left" as socialism and right as, what "unregulated capitalism" then perhaps. But that's not how most of us define left/liberal. Liberal has nothing to do with socialism, socialism is an economic theory (and one which almost everyone on the left views as a failed theory). Anyone who lived in a commune in the '60s can tell you that socialism is a piece of cr@p. Socialism fails for the same reason that unconstrained capitalism and libertarian-ism fail, too many people are too greedy.

Personally I, and every liberal I know, define liberalism as a belief in equal rights for everyone and a fair opportunity for everyone to achieve their goals. And an adequate safety net so that none of us have to lie dying in the gutter if we have some bad luck.

Based on that definition I'd put PBO and Joe Biden far to the liberal side.



That chart was from the 2008 elections, the 2012 chart is coming out in the next few weeks.
Quoting RTSplayer:


>The only real debate any more is how bad it's going to be and how soon...that sort of thing.



BINGO! We have a winner.

Only a few years back Arctic scientists were predicting that we would see the Arctic seas ice free in about 100 years. If we have more 'business as usual', as long as some unforeseen force doesn't come into play we could see ice free months in the next five years.

What will that mean for the major topic on this blog - tropical weather/storms? If the ice is largely gone by late summer where is all that extra heat going to go? Will it greatly increase ocean/Gulf temperatures and greatly strengthen our hurricanes?

Will the ocean current patterns change bringing more strong storms onto land or carry them out to sea and off to Europe?

What happens when a hurricane hits a possibly much hotter and much dryer Texas/Florida? Will it burn itself out within a few miles of the coast or will it carry much further inland?

Will we see an increase in the number and strength of tornadoes, along with a lengthening season or will changes in the jet stream be a tornado killer? Will tornado alley move north to Minnesota and Canada?

We're in the process of melting away a large amount of accumulated ice that we've laid down over many years. When that is gone what strange and wondrous things will be in store for us?
BBC News
Satellite photo of Iceland Plants trapped under Iceland's icecaps store a record of ancient temperatures
Continue reading the main story
Related Stories



The Little Ice Age was caused by the cooling effect of massive volcanic eruptions, and sustained by changes in Arctic ice cover, scientists conclude....Link
Quoting yqt1001:


That chart was from the 2008 elections, the 2012 chart is coming out in the next few weeks.


I take issue with the definitions used to create the chart.

Liberal does not equate with socialism in my book.

Let me copy over the first part of the Wiki on liberalism...

"Liberalism (from the Latin liberalis)[1] is the belief in the importance of liberty and equal rights.[2] Liberals espouse a wide array of views depending on their understanding of these principles, but generally liberals support ideas such as constitutionalism, liberal democracy, free and fair elections, human rights, capitalism, and freedom of religion.[3][4][5][6][7] These ideas are widely accepted, even by political groups that do not openly profess a liberal ideological orientation.

Liberalism first became a powerful force in the Age of Enlightenment, rejecting several foundational assumptions that dominated most earlier theories of government, such as nobility, established religion, absolute monarchy, and the Divine Right of Kings."


That someone made a graph and used their person definition of liberalism makes the graph basically worthless.

Words have meanings....

77:

I have a few theories about that.

Mid lattitudes should experience more warming than low lattitudes, so for example the region between 40N and 55N should warm much faster than say 25N to 35N.

the results of this, I believe, is the hurricanes will be able to form much farther north, and category 1 and 2 storms will also be able to hit Europe moving in from the west across the northern edge of the Atlantic, around the high pressure systems there.

The area between 30N and 30S represents half the globe, but should have the least gain in temperature.

The Gulf of Mexico might be 1C or 2C warmer by 2100, since it is a heat trap anyway, it might be more than that on the warmest years.

The 40N to 55N regions of the oceans might be as much as 5C or 6C warmer, and grade that down to +1C or +2C at 30N, and maybe +0.5C at the equator. This will allow for very strong, very long-lived hurricanes in places never seen. The east coast of the U.S. would see stronger hurricanes more often. Europe might also get hit by a few category 1 or 2 storms per year, etc.

In terms of TCHP, if you heat the average temperature of a collumn of water by 1C to a depth of 100M, you increase TCHP by 42kj/cm^2. That's a LOT.

This means very strong, very long-lived storms, over a wider area in the basin, and over a longer time period during the year.
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


I didn't realize if you weren't pro AGW then you aren't a scientist.


I seriously doubt many are "pro anthropogenic climate change." Even those that deliberately try to cloud the science and mislead the public probably not not "pro AGW," as you put it.

Quoting WxGeekVA:
I know recently I have been posting in doubt of AGW, but after doing some research of my own and looking at the possible hypothesises, it is the most logical explanation for the recent extreme weather and obvious climate changes in the Arctic. It also explains the fact of recent record high temperatures outnumbering record lows by almost 20-1 this winter. There does need to be more observations and research to confirm it, but I do think that something is going on here, and it is being caused indirectly or directly by mankind.

Like, I literally spent all morning and afternoon reading scientific literature to make a conclusion of my own.


It's going to take more than a morning to catch up... it's a hefty topic requiring experts from multiple disciplines. That's why we have the IPCC assessment reports to summarize the data, physical basis, uncertainties, and future projections. But even then, the reports are so long that they create a summary of the summary, essentially.
For those that were mislead by the Daily Mail opinion piece, the UK Met Office has posted on their official blog about it. It seems as if their information was misquoted and twisted, as suggested by earlier posts on the previous thread.

http://metofficenews.wordpress.com/2012/01/29/met -office-in-the-media-29-january-2012/

Once again, it's worth a reminder that your best chance of being accurate is in discriminating trustworthy sources, being skeptical of "ground-breaking" claims, and inquiring with the original source when possible.

Unfortunately, by now the misinformation in the opinion piece has traveled around the world and back via the echo chamber before reality even got its shoes on.
Quoting RTSplayer:


Examples of true fascists are:

The Catholic Popes, especially during the middle ages and inquisition.

Kim Jong Il

Typically stay in power by promoting your own relatives to military ranking officers, or placing them over key infrastructure, making any organized rebellion very difficult.

Any Islamic leader, especially those who believe in Shariah law.

Most Israeli priests, kings, and prophets in the Bible. Fact is, if these people were alive today, we'd arrest the majority of them and prosecute them for war crimes and other crimes against humanity, especially David, Josiah, Moses, Samuel, and Joshua.

I don't know, try to pick some more that people don't ordinarily think about.



I think you confuse Shariah law with the enforcement of Shariah law by some overly authoritarian leaders. Shariah law is the same as Christian law, Judaic law or any other legal system based on religious beliefs.

And just like other religious law systems there are lots of variations. When I was growing up the minister at the church across the street from ours told his congregations that all of us on my side of the street were going to Hell because we sprinkled rather than dunked.


Living under a benevolent Shariah law government would certainly be more enjoyable than living under a despotic Christian law government. Reflect on your European history - especially the years of the Inquisition. Or more recently our own years of church led witch hunts....

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sharia
Quoting RTSplayer:
77:

I have a few theories about that.

Mid lattitudes should experience more warming than low lattitudes, so for example the region between 40N and 55N should warm much faster than say 25N to 35N.

the results of this, I believe, is the hurricanes will be able to form much farther north, and category 1 and 2 storms will also be able to hit Europe moving in from the west across the northern edge of the Atlantic, around the high pressure systems there.

The area between 30N and 30S represents half the globe, but should have the least gain in temperature.

The Gulf of Mexico might be 1C or 2C warmer by 2100, since it is a heat trap anyway, it might be more than that on the warmest years.

The 40N to 55N regions of the oceans might be as much as 5C or 6C warmer, and grade that down to +1C or +2C at 30N, and maybe +0.5C at the equator. This will allow for very strong, very long-lived hurricanes in places never seen. The east coast of the U.S. would see stronger hurricanes more often. Europe might also get hit by a few category 1 or 2 storms per year, etc.

In terms of TCHP, if you heat the average temperature of a collumn of water by 1C to a depth of 100M, you increase TCHP by 42kj/cm^2. That's a LOT.

This means very strong, very long-lived storms, over a wider area in the basin, and over a longer time period during the year.


But what happens if the far north warms significantly more/faster in the summer months and reduces the air mass temperature differences between the (only somewhat warmer) equatorial areas and the now much warmer northern air mass? This could cut storm strength.

No predictions on my part, I don't have the climatic background to make any. But I do fear that we are entering an unknown phase in the history of the Earth. It's hard to say what will happen, just look at how fast Arctic sea ice is disappearing and how essentially no one saw that coming.
Im in, and...

wow. thought somebody would be talkin about how much Iggy is struggling...but there seems to be too much politic talk going on.

...and im out.

Quoting RTSplayer:
77:

I have a few theories about that.

Mid lattitudes should experience more warming than low lattitudes, so for example the region between 40N and 55N should warm much faster than say 25N to 35N.

the results of this, I believe, is the hurricanes will be able to form much farther north, and category 1 and 2 storms will also be able to hit Europe moving in from the west across the northern edge of the Atlantic, around the high pressure systems there.

The area between 30N and 30S represents half the globe, but should have the least gain in temperature.

The Gulf of Mexico might be 1C or 2C warmer by 2100, since it is a heat trap anyway, it might be more than that on the warmest years.

The 40N to 55N regions of the oceans might be as much as 5C or 6C warmer, and grade that down to +1C or +2C at 30N, and maybe +0.5C at the equator. This will allow for very strong, very long-lived hurricanes in places never seen. The east coast of the U.S. would see stronger hurricanes more often. Europe might also get hit by a few category 1 or 2 storms per year, etc.

In terms of TCHP, if you heat the average temperature of a collumn of water by 1C to a depth of 100M, you increase TCHP by 42kj/cm^2. That's a LOT.

This means very strong, very long-lived storms, over a wider area in the basin, and over a longer time period during the year.
Very cool post ( no pun ). I was wondering tho, if the ocean currents change ( which they are at a seemingly increasing rate, the Gulf Stream is on massive crack ) how will the warming that you speak of and the current shifts interact, and what effect will it have on tropical cyclones and mid-latitude storms..are we all gonna die.?
Quoting BobWallace:


But what happens if the far north warms significantly more/faster in the summer months and reduces the air mass temperature differences between the (only somewhat warmer) equatorial areas and the now much warmer northern air mass? This could cut storm strength.

No predictions on my part, I don't have the climatic background to make any. But I do fear that we are entering an unknown phase in the history of the Earth. It's hard to say what will happen, just look at how fast Arctic sea ice is disappearing and how essentially no one saw that coming.


Hey, I didn't claim to be a climatologist, just personal theory, like I said.

There are several issues which are definitly going to have at least a slight change on steering behavior for sure.

Since Greenland is an assymetric ice cap, as it melts, conservation of angular momentum will require the Earth's spin to slow down, and it's axis to tilt by a very, very small amount as well(measured in centimeters to maybe a meter, I think.)

The maximum range of motion from high tide to low tide may change drastically in some locations.

Then there's your jet streams, high pressure, and low pressure systems and figuring out how they will even be moving.


Who knows?

Maybe in the worst case, the whole steering system goes chaotic and produces vertical or retrograde storm tracks like we've never seen, or rarely seen? i.e. forms in the northeast and moves southwest and such...


I think conservation laws will require boundaries to move around quite a bit, but it shouldn't become completely unpredictable.

Like it might be different than what we have now, but people will eventually figure out how to model it anyway.
Quoting hydrus:
Very cool post ( no pun ). I was wondering tho, if the ocean currents change ( which they are at a seemingly increasing rate, the Gulf Stream is on massive crack ) how will the warming that you speak of and the current shifts interact, and what effect will it have on tropical cyclones and mid-latitude storms..are we all gonna die.?


There's clearly reasonable limits on what an ocean current can and cannot do, simply because of the shape of the basins.

I don't expect any globally significant changes in ocean currents in my lifetime, because the scale of the motion is planetary and actually requires a significant change in angular momentum, or rather some balancing change to cancel it out.

Even melting an ice cap probably would not make some huge "everything going the wrong way" change in ocean currents, because the ice caps are only like a percent of the hydrosphere.
The GFS keeps flip flopping with the next system..
Quoting RTSplayer:


There's clearly reasonable limits on what an ocean current can and cannot do, simply because of the shape of the basins.

I don't expect any globally significant changes in ocean currents in my lifetime, because the scale of the motion is planetary and actually requires a significant change in angular momentum, or rather some balancing change to cancel it out.

Even melting an ice cap probably would not make some huge "everything going the wrong way" change in ocean currents, because the ice caps are only like a percent of the hydrosphere.
The reason why I asked is I was reading about the Thermohaline circulation or the Oceanic Conveyor Belt. It said that a fresh water blockage could cause a rapid change in the currents direction, altering the Gulf streams path, and cause a rather rapid change with the Earths climate. I also noticed that if The Greenland Ice Sheet melts significantly, the high pressure area that blocks the jet and causes the storm track to dive south into the U.S. may not be nearly as strong as it was.
This blog is sad right now.It's turned into a stupid political blog.I'm out.
Quoting hydrus:
The reason why I asked is I was reading about the Thermohaline circulation or the Oceanic Conveyor Belt. It said that a fresh water blockage could cause a rapid change in the currents direction, altering the Gulf streams path, and cause a rather rapid change with the Earths climate. I also noticed that if The Greenland Ice Sheet melts significantly, the high pressure area that blocks the jet and causes the storm track to dive south into the U.S. may not be nearly as strong as it was.


a.k.a Younger Dryas.
Link


celsium reported in calif dome radiation over eastern australia fuchsima disaster is not getting better?
From a report I just read - about the "Little Ice Age"...



The team used the NCAR-based Community Climate System Model to test the effects of volcanic cooling on Arctic sea ice extent and mass. The model, which simulated various sea ice conditions from about A.D. 1150-1700, showed several large, closely spaced eruptions could have cooled the Northern Hemisphere enough to trigger Arctic sea ice growth.

The models showed sustained cooling from volcanoes would have sent some of the expanding Arctic sea ice down along the eastern coast of Greenland until it eventually melted in the North Atlantic. Since sea ice contains almost no salt, when it melted the surface water became less dense, preventing it from mixing with deeper North Atlantic water. This weakened heat transport back to the Arctic and creating a self-sustaining feedback system on the sea ice long after the effects of the volcanic aerosols subsided, he said.

"Our simulations showed that the volcanic eruptions may have had a profound cooling effect,%u201D says NCAR scientist Bette Otto-Bliesner, a co-author of the study. %u201CThe eruptions could have triggered a chain reaction, affecting sea ice and ocean currents in a way that lowered temperatures for centuries."



http://www.colorado.edu/news/releases/2012/01/30/ new-cu-led-study-may-answer-long-standing-question s-about-enigmatic-little

I don't know if it's safe to extrapolate from that paper, but look at the 'melted sea ice slowing down heat transport' part. We're melting both the sea and land ice in the Arctic at the moment. And the rate of melting seems to be accelerating.

Might this mean that Western Europe is going to suffer from colder temperatures? Might it mean that since the flow could slow that tropical waters are going to get hotter faster?
Here's my view as far as the atlantic goes for Tropical Cyclones in 2100.

Meteorologist use the analogy of the "Nature has fixed dice now due to global warming".

I'll use that analogy.

Let's say "Nature" normally rolls 2d6 in any given location, without AGW effects.

Right now, the Gulf and Carribean are "Fixed" and seem to be rolling 3d6, keeping the best 2d6, and adding 1 to the total.

The atlantic coast (carolinas to new england, etc,) is maybe rolling 3d6 and keeping the best 2d6.

That would simulate the higher frequency of storms, and the perhaps above average number of strong storms.

In 2100, the Gulf would be 3d6, keep the best 2d6, and add 2. Not that big a difference, but statistically significant.

But the atlantic coast will feel future warming more than the Gulf and Caribbean. In 2100, the Atlantic coast might be akin to rolling 4d6, keep the best 2d6, and add 2 to the total.

We're talking just flat out rigged.


to see how this works, just pick a satellite map during "Typical" hurricane season, and show the SST lines. Don't use the worst ones, because that's a-typical.

Now find the 22C line and change it to 26C.

find the 26C line and change it to maybe 29C

find the 30C line and change it to maybe 31C or 32C.

find any stray 31C or 32C lines and add 1C.


Now compare that to 2004, 2005, and 2008.


That scenario is realistic within the IPCC parameters.
I am surprised to read about the -50 F temps in Alaska. I am aware of the reduction in Artic sea ice and this looks like it can help against that downward trend.

The mild winters in the lower 48 I can only guess can positively impact our economy with less energy spent on heating and snow removal. I don't know where this is going,but for now seems like a nice break.
Looking forward to the July Sneaux as to keep my Cooling bill down as well.


RTSplayer: "I don't expect any globally significant changes in ocean currents in my lifetime, because the scale of the motion is planetary and actually requires a significant change in angular momentum, or rather some balancing change to cancel it out."

The mid level winds are already slowing down where it is most polluted ei India. It is possible that arctic ice melt has already left a bubble of warmer water that will surge south in your lifetime. The weight of melted icecaps have to have a stabilizing effect on the ocean currents that will soon be removed. Earthquakes will probably increase as ocean levels rise and coastal ground becomes saturated. The lubricant value of the extra water pressure will probably cause continental plates to move faster. We are in uncharted territory and absolutely anything is possible.
Quoting Genex:
I am surprised to read about the -50 F temps in Alaska. I am aware of the reduction in Artic sea ice and this looks like it can help against that downward trend.

The mild winters in the lower 48 I can only guess can positively impact our economy with less energy spent on heating and snow removal. I don't know where this is going,but for now seems like a nice break.


There's not a lot of time left in the ice-forming season. The Sun has already returned to the most southern parts of the region.

At this point it's still possible that we set a new "low maximum". It's extremely unlikely that there will be any significant gain in ice over the normal amount added during the last three or so months of the freeze season. As of a few days ago we had record low freezing levels so we're already in the 'basement'....
We are in uncharted territory and absolutely anything is possible.


Indeed, the Trojan Horse ruse begin's today, as predicted.

UFO Found In Baltic Sea? (VIDEO)CNN


Quoting wxmod:
RTSplayer: "I don't expect any globally significant changes in ocean currents in my lifetime, because the scale of the motion is planetary and actually requires a significant change in angular momentum, or rather some balancing change to cancel it out."

The mid level winds are already slowing down where it is most polluted ei India. It is possible that arctic ice melt has already left a bubble of warmer water that will surge south in your lifetime. The weight of melted icecaps have to have a stabilizing effect on the ocean currents that will soon be removed. Earthquakes will probably increase as ocean levels rise and coastal ground becomes saturated. The lubricant value of the extra water pressure will probably cause continental plates to move faster. We are in uncharted territory and absolutely anything is possible.


We're also shifting the way the planet is 'loaded'. We're decreasing the load on Greenland and the high mountains where lots of glaciers used to live. We're increasing the load on the ocean floor as sea levels rise.

Almost certainly we're going to see more rapid plate movement which means more earthquakes/tsunamis. Could even cause more volcanic activity as we move stuff around on a grand scale.

We just don't have a good idea what we're bringing to ourselves. Take a look at the article I linked above on the Little Ice Age and its likely cause - a relatively small number of equatorial volcanoes.

We could stimulate the Ring of Fire and global warming could plunge us back into an mini-ice age.

We're poking a sleeping tiger with a stick. There is no need to keep on doing what we're doing.
Quoting Genex:
I am surprised to read about the -50 F temps in Alaska. I am aware of the reduction in Artic sea ice and this looks like it can help against that downward trend.
The extreme cold has been mostly confined to portions of land that are deeply landlocked--central Alaska, central Canada, and, of course, central Siberia--and Arctic Sea ice has been responding about as expected.

In fact, at a time of the year that ice is usually still gaining in area (although more slowly than previous), it's actually been going against the norm. Over the past three weeks, just 225,000 km2 of ice area has been added. By comparison, last year during that same span, 852,000 km2 was added, and 2007--the year of the previous record--saw 829,300 km2. It's always possible for a large spike in growth to make up for the difference, though some areas that usually grow at this time of year--outside the Bering Strait and hear Baffin Bay--have already frozen solid, while some other areas--the Barents and Kara seas--still have extant warm water, and strong winds from the Atlantic will keep them that way for at least another week.

At any rate, the maxiumum will be reached anywhere from the last week in February to the second week in March. Then the race is on to see how far much ice will disappear by the second or so week of September.
Can someone post a picture of the Arctic cap? I'd be curious to see it now. The ice was impressive in December. I bet most of it is frozen now. Polar bears were due for a good year. Glad they got it.
Quoting Fathead:
Can someone post a picture of the Arctic cap? I'd be curious to see it now. The ice was impressive in December. I bet most of it is frozen now. Polar bears were due for a good year. Glad they got it.


Quoting Fathead:
Can someone post a picture of the Arctic cap? I'd be curious to see it now. The ice was impressive in December. I bet most of it is frozen now. Polar bears were due for a good year. Glad they got it.


The extent is about 250,000km below the previous record for this time of year.

Quoting BobWallace:



BINGO! We have a winner.

Only a few years back Arctic scientists were predicting that we would see the Arctic seas ice free in about 100 years. If we have more 'business as usual', as long as some unforeseen force doesn't come into play we could see ice free months in the next five years.

What will that mean for the major topic on this blog - tropical weather/storms? If the ice is largely gone by late summer where is all that extra heat going to go? Will it greatly increase ocean/Gulf temperatures and greatly strengthen our hurricanes?

Will the ocean current patterns change bringing more strong storms onto land or carry them out to sea and off to Europe?

What happens when a hurricane hits a possibly much hotter and much dryer Texas/Florida? Will it burn itself out within a few miles of the coast or will it carry much further inland?

Will we see an increase in the number and strength of tornadoes, along with a lengthening season or will changes in the jet stream be a tornado killer? Will tornado alley move north to Minnesota and Canada?

We're in the process of melting away a large amount of accumulated ice that we've laid down over many years. When that is gone what strange and wondrous things will be in store for us?



After all of the ice melts, and the heat is still there, then all of the permafrost would be next. Complete permafrost meltdown would cause an enormous methane release into the atmosphere. Humans and all mammals on Earth would then truly be in a heap of trouble if we let it go that far. We would then enter into a cycle of becoming hotter and hotter, with air quality dropping more and more. On the heels of this, would come uninhabitable living conditions. Earth would become more like Venus than anyone would ever want to deal with. Permafrost has now begun melting in Siberia. This video shows what it looks like there as it is melting.

How is the icecap in Antarctica doing, probably making up the difference with the ice loss in the Arctic. Wait till we get a cold PDO,AMO and solar minimun. These are the real drivers to gobal temps one way or another.
Quoting hydrus:
The reason why I asked is I was reading about the Thermohaline circulation or the Oceanic Conveyor Belt. It said that a fresh water blockage could cause a rapid change in the currents direction, altering the Gulf streams path, and cause a rather rapid change with the Earths climate. I also noticed that if The Greenland Ice Sheet melts significantly, the high pressure area that blocks the jet and causes the storm track to dive south into the U.S. may not be nearly as strong as it was.

Some very interesting comments on here tonight!
I think that if the Polar ice cap effectively completely melts then there is also a good possibility that the Thermohaline will then move further north before it cools and descends.
This will significantly warm the Northern Atlantic and Greenland. The whole thing could turn into a roller coaster of heat heading up towards the North Pole.Added to this the unknown events of Polar storms over open water.
Just because there is a lot of ice on Greenland doesn't mean its stable there.
111. wxmod
With present trends continuing in a straight line, how long do statistics show until life on earth as we know it will be impossible? PH, oxygen, temp, etc. Anyone calculated that. (not belief, just data)
Quoting StormGoddess:



After all of the ice melts, and the heat is still there, then all of the permafrost would be next. Complete permafrost meltdown would cause an enormous methane release into the atmosphere. Humans and all mammals on Earth would then truly be in a heap of trouble if we let it go that far. We would then enter into a cycle of becoming hotter and hotter, with air quality dropping more and more. On the heels of this, would come uninhabitable living conditions. Earth would become more like Venus than anyone would ever want to deal with. Permafrost has now begun melting in Siberia. This video shows what it looks like there as it is melting.



Woah, settle down there cowboy. There's no danger of Venus like conditions on Earth. Our atmosphere is simply not thick enough.

Methane hangs around in the atmosphere on average for around 12 years, at which point it breaks down into CO2 and water vapor. The long term effects would result in a net heating, after the spike caused by the methane itself.

Several groups have run simulations using "methane bombs" that used a range of estimates for permafrost and clathrate methane concentrations. While they would definitely make the Earth more toasty, there is no danger of a runaway greenhouse effect.

To put in another way, in order for a runaway effect to occur, you'd need to displace a significant portion of our current atmospheric composition with greenhouse gases. If that were to occur, you'd be dead long before you'd feel the heating effects.
Quoting NativeSun:
How is the icecap in Antarctica doing, probably making up the difference with the ice loss in the Arctic. Wait till we get a cold PDO,AMO and solar minimun. These are the real drivers to gobal temps one way or another.
There's really no such thing as "making up the difference" where the subject of polar ice is concerned, of course; that's a little like saying having your left leg accidentally amputated makes up the difference for your right leg suddenly sprouting a 20-pound tumor. ;-)
At 8:00 AM WST, Tropical Cyclone Iggy, Category One (984 hPa) located at 21.8S 109.4E or 490 km west of Exmouth and 555 km northwest of Carnarvon has 10 minute sustained winds of 45 knots with gusts of 65 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south southwest at 8 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/3.0/S0.0/24 HRS

Gale Force Winds
--------------------
90 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
======================

12 HRS: 23.4S 108.5E - 40 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS: 25.6S 107.7E - 35 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS: 28.2S 109.5E - 30 knots (TROPICAL LOW)
72 HRS: 27.3S 110.2E - 25 knots (TROPICAL LOW)

Additional Information
=======================

Deep convection has reduced over night and this morning's visible imagery shows limited deep convection near the center despite low shear. Organization is good but the convective signature relatively weak.

Position determined from microwave, animated IR and latest VIS imagery. Excellent microwave fix at 2257Z gives high confidence in position.Curved band wrap of 0.6 to 0.7 consistently obtained over IR imagery 1730-2230Z. MET is 2.0 based on a weakening trend and PAT = 2.5. FT is set at 3.0 and as FT has been lower than CI for over 6 hours CI is now dropped to 3.0. ADT is running at around 2.6-2.8. Latest [17Z] SATCON is 51 knots 1-min mean, with AMSU dominating that estimate at 58 knots 1-min mean. FOV for AMSU was 28 [poor] and a bias correction was applied.

Final intensity estimate set to 45 knots 10-min mean.

Good agreement between the models on the track with majority of models taking the remnant system toward the west coast from Wednesday. Minority of models have the system weakening sufficiently to be steered off to the west. With a passing mid-latitude trough to the south on Wednesday the steering is toward the east at all levels except 850hPa. There is some discrepancy in the SST analyses available from different sources but by Wednesday the sea surface temperatures should also be forcing a strong weakening trend.

The next tropical cyclone advice from Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center on TC IGGY will be issued at 6:30 AM UTC..
Quoting washingtonian115:
This blog is sad right now.It's turned into a stupid political blog.I'm out.


probably the best option right now....seems some forget this aint MSNBC er ABC n all that.

This is Dr. Jeff Masters Weather Blog.
I'm seeing some pretty wild speculation on the blog. You'd think a tropical cyclone was having a burst of convection just south of Hispaniola (just at the same time wind shear sets in and blows the thing apart). Can you name the 2011 storm?

Edit: Hey 115, I see scientific speculation, no political discussion at the moment--though some of the political/religion posts were interesting.
Quoting wxmod:
With present trends continuing in a straight line, how long do statistics show until life on earth as we know it will be impossible? PH, oxygen, temp, etc. Anyone calculated that. (not belief, just data)

There are still too many unknowns to answer that question.
We know about the CO2 rise and the apparent Temp rise but the problems that will be caused by permafrost melt and possible increased natural events such as volcanic activity are not yet well enough cataloged.
The possibility of the Earth becoming too hostile for life is probably remote but certain areas of will almost inevitably become very hostile.
Sorry to be a bit vague!
Ok guys, I'm here now, let's get this blog back on track. :D



Iceberg Images - Most Recent


Latest Ronne Ice Shelf Images



Quoting Neapolitan:
I nearly did that during spring break one year. :)
oh god
Quoting NativeSun:
How is the icecap in Antarctica doing, probably making up the difference with the ice loss in the Arctic. Wait till we get a cold PDO,AMO and solar minimun. These are the real drivers to gobal temps one way or another.


Saying that Antarctic ice is somehow balancing out Arctic ice is like saying you can balance out AIDS by giving yourself Leukemia.

You've clearly read little on the subject of climate. There are plenty of resources online to educate yourself with.
Quoting TomTaylor:
oh god

Woah, you put an image of yourself up.

Are you Californian?
Well, something getting together here.




Quoting Xyrus2000:


Woah, settle down there cowboy. There's no danger of Venus like conditions on Earth. Our atmosphere is simply not thick enough.

Methane hangs around in the atmosphere on average for around 12 years, at which point it breaks down into CO2 and water vapor. The long term effects would result in a net heating, after the spike caused by the methane itself.

Several groups have run simulations using "methane bombs" that used a range of estimates for permafrost and clathrate methane concentrations. While they would definitely make the Earth more toasty, there is no danger of a runaway greenhouse effect.

To put in another way, in order for a runaway effect to occur, you'd need to displace a significant portion of our current atmospheric composition with greenhouse gases. If that were to occur, you'd be dead long before you'd feel the heating effects.


Wouldn't 80 billion tons of methane release as a greenhouse gas do the trick? If not, then that is good as the runaway greenhouse effect is what I am worried about and this has been the concern of many for a long time. Thanks for answering my question Xyrus I enjoy reading you on here. :)
Currently Active Tropical Cyclones

Southern Hemisphere

SH092012 - Tropical Cyclone (<64 kt) IGGY
SH912012 - INVEST
SH922012 - INVEST
SH932012 - INVEST
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Ok guys, I'm here now, let's get this blog back on track. :D

Noooooo I meant to press the plus button but my mouse was act'in all crazy and pressed the minus.Damn.Iggy looks Icky.LOl.
Quoting bappit:
I'm seeing some pretty wild speculation on the blog. You'd think a tropical cyclone was having a burst of convection just south of Hispaniola (just at the same time wind shear sets in and blows the thing apart). Can you name the 2011 storm?

Edit: Hey 115, I see scientific speculation, no political discussion at the moment--though some of the political/religion posts were interesting.
I don't like politics and weather together.That's one of the reason's the Katrina aftermath esculated the way it did.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Ok guys, I'm here now, let's get this blog back on track. :D



bout time somebody clears the place of politicians...

lol
Quoting washingtonian115:
Noooooo I meant to press the plus button but my mouse was act'in all crazy and pressed the minus.Damn.Iggy looks Icky.LOl.


i did that once before. meant to hit minus...but hit plus.


watch language plz:D

D--- is bettr
Quoting StormGoddess:



After all of the ice melts, and the heat is still there, then all of the permafrost would be next. Complete permafrost meltdown would cause an enormous methane release into the atmosphere. Humans and all mammals on Earth would then truly be in a heap of trouble if we let it go that far. We would then enter into a cycle of becoming hotter and hotter, with air quality dropping more and more. On the heels of this, would come uninhabitable living conditions. Earth would become more like Venus than anyone would ever want to deal with. Permafrost has now begun melting in Siberia. This video shows what it looks like there as it is melting.



The permafrost is also melting in Alaska and Canada. We're loosing roads and buildings as they slide into the great goop of melted soil.

It used to be that one could count on the soil remaining frozen as hard as rock. Those days are over....


PNA nicely positive. eastern CONUS go possible(should i say likely??) pattern change.
113:

In order to get a real runaway greenhouse effect you'd need to burn all the remaining coal, oil,natural gas, and all remaining plant life.

Then you'd need to bake a significant portion of the Calcium Carbonate deposits of the world long enough and hot enough for it to release the CO2 into the atmosphere.

Even then, under present solar conditions, Earth should end up with a mean temperature a few degrees below boiling, and ironically, this is not hot enough to bake CO2 out of Calcium Carbonate. Which means true runaway greenhouse effect is not possible on the Earth under existing solar conditions, regardless of any amount of CO2 bombs or man-made emissions.
Quoting wxmod:
With present trends continuing in a straight line, how long do statistics show until life on earth as we know it will be impossible? PH, oxygen, temp, etc. Anyone calculated that. (not belief, just data)


I'm not sure what kind of information you could get from doing something like that. None of trends are linear, and in fact level off over time at points of saturation.

If your talking about what it would take to turn into Venus, it would take a lot more than what is projected. And we be long dead from other factors before we saw anything like Venus happening on Earth.

Besides, life as we know it would continue just fine for the most part. There'd be a number of extinctions, but life is so varied that it would be really hard to kill it all off, though at times I think we try really hard to. We might have a hard time or eventually vanish, but those crawly guys in the deeps hanging out around the geothermal vents could probably care less.
You called my son?
Quoting TomTaylor:
oh god

Stephen Hawking - Earth could become like 'sister planet' Venus due to global warming


The NAO is currently almost in neutral,but the forecast is to be positive by early Febuary.

Who died and made you blog police? 
Quoting SPLbeater:


i did that once before. meant to hit minus...but hit plus.


watch language plz:D

D--- is bettr

Quoting Xandra:
Stephen Hawking - Earth could become like 'sister planet' Venus due to global warming




dont need dis crap here earth will NOT be like venus. ever. ever.
Quoting NativeSun:
How is the icecap in Antarctica doing, probably making up the difference with the ice loss in the Arctic. Wait till we get a cold PDO,AMO and solar minimun. These are the real drivers to gobal temps one way or another.


The CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere in the southern hemisphere lag behind the northern hemisphere by about 5 to 10 years, because mixing just doesn't happen fast enough, probably due to the larger oceans, lower land area and lower population.

Methane in the SH also lags decades behind the methane in the NH.

So it will take at least another 5 to 10 years before the greenhouse effect in the SH is as strong as the greenhouse effect in the NH currently is, but by then, the NH will have gained another 22PPM CO2...

The antarctic sea ice EXTENT is currently growing, but that is slightly misleading for several reasons.

The average temperature of the southern ocean is increasing by 0.2C to 0.3C per decade.

Also, extent can be misleading vs volume.

Let's say you have an ice cube 2cm on each edge, so a volume 8cm^3.

If it's sitting in water, it's top face has an area of 4cm^2.

Now let's cut it into 8 cubes of 1cm each, and let's MELT 3 cubes, so that we have 5 remaining.

The 5 cubes top face now has an area of 5cm^2, an increase in area and extent!

But wait, the total volume has actually decreased from 8cm^3 to 5cm^3.


Ok, so that's a simple analogy of how things are more complicated than just one graph. The sub-surface ice in Antarctica often goes all the way down to the sea floor. This ice is being gradually eroded from beneath by the warming oceans, even as continental glaciers and ice shelfs collapse and fall into the sea.


Once the greenhouse gases in the SH catch up with the NH, give or take a certain amount, then Antarctica's sea ice and continental ice will also begin retreating.
Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:
Who died and made you blog police? 



nobody. i aint no police. and im tired of your negative responses to me.


go look at the community standards why dont you
Man i got new earbuds today since last 'ns broke...and the music sound like ur sitting at a live performance
Quoting Neapolitan:
There's really no such thing as "making up the difference" where the subject of polar ice is concerned, of course; that's a little like saying having your left leg accidentally amputated makes up the difference for your right leg suddenly sprouting a 20-pound tumor. ;-)




How about the departure of 20% polarity from the North Pole to the South pole, since 1900.
2005
Solar System - Did you notice? In February 2001, the Sun did a magnetic polar shift. The next one is due again in 2012. NASA scientists who monitor the Sun say that our star's awesome magnetic field flipped 22 months ago, signaling the arrival of a solar maximum. But it wasn't so obvious to the average human. ImageThe Sun's magnetic north pole, which was in the northern hemisphere just a few months ago, now points south. It's a topsy-turvy situation, but not an unexpected one. "This always happens around the time of solar maximum," says David Hathaway, a solar physicist at the Marshall Space Flight Center. "The magnetic poles exchange places at the peak of the sunspot cycle. In fact, it's a good indication that Solar Max is really here." The Sun's magnetic poles will remain as they are now, with the north magnetic pole pointing through the Sun's southern hemisphere, until the year 2012 when they will reverse again. This transition happens, as far as we know, at the peak of every 11-year sunspot cycle -- like clockwork. Earth’s magnetic field also flips, but with less regularity. Consecutive reversals are spaced 5 thousand years to 50 million years apart. The last reversal happened 740,000 years ago. Some researchers think our planet is overdue for another one, but nobody knows exactly when the next reversal might occur. ImageAlthough solar and terrestrial magnetic fields behave differently, they do have something in common: their shape. During solar minimum the Sun's field, like Earth's, resembles that of an iron bar magnet, with great closed loops near the equator and open field lines near the poles. Scientists call such a field a "dipole." The Sun's dipolar field is about as strong as a refrigerator magnet, or 50 gauss (a unit of magnetic intensity). Earth's magnetic field is 100 times weaker. When solar maximum arrives and sunspots pepper the face of the Sun, our star's magnetic field begins to change. Sunspots are places where intense magnetic loops -- hundreds of times stronger than the ambient dipole field -- poke through the photosphere. "Meridional flows on the Sun's surface carry magnetic fields from mid-latitude sunspots to the Sun's poles," explains Hathaway. "The poles end up flipping because these flows transport south-pointing magnetic flux to the north magnetic pole, and north-pointing flux to the south magnetic pole." The dipole field steadily weakens as oppositely-directed flux accumulates at the Sun's poles until, at the height of solar maximum, the magnetic poles change polarity and begin to grow in a new direction. Hathaway noticed the latest polar reversal in a "magnetic butterfly diagram." Using data collected by astronomers at the U.S. National Solar Observatory on Kitt Peak, he plotted the Sun's average magnetic field, day by day, as a function of solar latitude and time from 1975 through the present. The result is a sort of strip chart recording that reveals evolving magnetic patterns on the Sun's surface. "We call it a butterfly diagram," he says, "because sunspots make a pattern in this plot that looks like the wings of a butterfly." In the butterfly diagram, pictured below, the Sun's polar fields appear as strips of uniform color near 90 degrees latitude. When the colors change (in this case from blue to yellow or vice versa) it means the polar fields have switched signs. The ongoing changes are not confined to the space immediately around our star, Hathaway added. The Sun's magnetic field envelops the entire solar system in a bubble that scientists call the "heliosphere." The heliosphere extends 50 to 100 astronomical units (AU) beyond the orbit of Pluto. Inside it is the solar system -- outside is interstellar space. "Changes in the Sun's magnetic field are carried outward through the heliosphere by the solar wind," explains Steve Suess, another solar physicist at the Marshall Space Flight Center. "It takes about a year for disturbances to propagate all the way from the Sun to the outer bounds of the heliosphere." Because the Sun rotates (once every 27 days) solar magnetic fields corkscrew outwards in the shape of an Archimedian spiral. Far above the poles the magnetic fields twist around like a child's Slinky toy. Because of all the twists and turns, "the impact of the field reversal on the heliosphere is complicated," says Hathaway. Sunspots are sources of intense magnetic knots that spiral outwards even as the dipole field vanishes. The heliosphere doesn't simply wink out of existence when the poles flip -- there are plenty of complex magnetic structures to fill the void. Or so the theory goes.... Researchers have never seen the magnetic flip happen from the best possible point of view -- that is, from the top down. But now, the unique Ulysses spacecraft may give scientists a reality check. Ulysses, an international joint venture of the European Space Agency and NASA, was launched in 1990 to observe the solar system from very high solar latitudes. Every six years the spacecraft flies 2.2 AU over the Sun's poles. No other probe travels so far above the orbital plane of the planets. "Ulysses just passed under the Sun's south pole," says Suess, a mission co-Investigator. "Now it will loop back and fly over the north pole in the fall." "This is the most important part of our mission," he says. Ulysses last flew over the Sun's poles in 1994 and 1996, during solar minimum, and the craft made several important discoveries about cosmic rays, the solar wind, and more. "Now we get to see the Sun's poles during the other extreme: Solar Max. Our data will cover a complete solar cycle." www.PoleReversal.com

Here is what is happening to our airports due to the magnetic north is moving,
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SHbQsIyz3R8&featur e=related
145. j2008
Quoting BobWallace:


The permafrost is also melting in Alaska and Canada. We're loosing roads and buildings as they slide into the great goop of melted soil.

It used to be that one could count on the soil remaining frozen as hard as rock. Those days are over....
Well....... IDK bout that, currently Alaska is frozen as cold as a freezer. -50 isnt exactly melting ground weather... I'm sure you meant over all but yea contradicterary to say it at this time.
Oh well, it's Stephen Hawking, but I don't agree with him.

Earth's maximum worst case scenario temperature should be roughly half of Venus, due to the amount of sunlight we recieve, even if Earth had a 100 bar atmosphere of pure greenhouse gases.

Problem is, that isn't hot enough to thermalize all the dirt and rock to release the CO2 in the first place.


The worst case scenario, with all the CO2 already being released from the soil and rock, does not get hot enough to facilitate it's own existence.

It would require an artificial cause, such as an alien attack or a doomsday bomb, etc.
Spicewood Texas West of Austin is Out of Water, it is being Trucked in. http://www.washingtonpost.com/national/lcra-trucki ng-water-to-town-of-spicewood-beach-after-wells-ra n-dry/2012/01/30/gIQAADqDdQ_story.html?wpisrc=emai ltoafriend
Life forms on Earth have survived two Major Extinction epoch's and well..

We got FB, Thermo-Nuclear Weapons by the Tens of Thousand's and American Idol.


Aint it wunderful?






149. j2008
Quoting bappit:
I'm seeing some pretty wild speculation on the blog. You'd think a tropical cyclone was having a burst of convection just south of Hispaniola (just at the same time wind shear sets in and blows the thing apart). Can you name the 2011 storm?

Edit: Hey 115, I see scientific speculation, no political discussion at the moment--though some of the political/religion posts were interesting.
What is Emily??
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Ok guys, I'm here now, let's get this blog back on track. :D


Wow if I am correct that is Iggy? Impressive looking, in that picture at least, he seems to go through phases.
Quoting Patrap:
Life forms on Earth have survived two Major Extinction epoch's and well..

We got FB, Thermo-Nuclear Weapons by the Tens of Thousand's and American Idol.


Aint it wunderful?








i assume FB is facebook?
Quoting StormGoddess:


Wouldn't 80 billion tons of methane release as a greenhouse gas do the trick? If not, then that is good as the runaway greenhouse effect is what I am worried about and this has been the concern of many for a long time. Thanks for answering my question Xyrus I enjoy reading you on here. :)


Thanks. :)

No, 80 billion tons of methane wouldn't be enough. But there's actually a lot more than that available.
This is a pretty good summary of what could be expected in a worst case scenario. Granted it still wouldn't be pleasant but it isn't the end of the world. :)
Quoting SPLbeater:


i assume FB is facebook?


Folly Beach
Quoting PensacolaDoug:



The name of the blog tells all you need to know.
Lots far left types post here. Outnumber the righties at least two to one.

Well most people in America are, or would be, democratic, the thing is this usually isn't reflected in voting because minority groups and young people (who are mostly democratic) participate far less in voting than upper class or even middle class white people.

While on this topic, another interesting thing is republicans are slightly favored to win in presidential elections. Why, you ask? The reason being is that a presidential nominee does not win the election by the popular vote, he, or she, wins by getting the most votes in the electoral college. Since the number of electoral votes is determined by the number of representatives it has in Congress (which is determined by the population of the state (for the House of Representatives) plus two additional members (senators in the Senate)). The result of this is states with a lower population get more electoral college votes per person than do states with a larger population. Historically, the less developed, less populated, and rural states tend to be more republican (think of the South and the Midwest). Therefore, the end result is bias towards a Republican president.

If you still don't believe me, here are some numbers; Wyoming gets 3 electoral college votes, California gets 55. Based off the 2010 census, California has 37 million people, Wyoming has 536 thousand. That means that per person, each electoral vote represents 178 thousand people in Wyoming, whereas each electoral vote represents 672 thousand people in California. If you think about it, that's pretty ridiculous and just goes to show why we should do away with the electoral college.


Anyway, I'm done rambling, but I figured I'd share one of the more interesting things I learned this year in my government class.
Quoting presslord:


Folly Beach


oh, ok....
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Woah, you put an image of yourself up.

Are you Californian?
Yes, I did. Kori put up a picture of himself, so I figured I'd try it out too. And yes, San Diego, California brah
Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:
You called my son?

Hm, must be a different God..
geez where every1 go lol
Quoting Xyrus2000:


Thanks. :)

No, 80 billion tons of methane wouldn't be enough. But there's actually a lot more than that available.
This is a pretty good summary of what could be expected in a worst case scenario. Granted it still wouldn't be pleasant but it isn't the end of the world. :)


Thanks Xyrus. :)

Well, it is good to know that the world isn't coming to an end after all. Guess I'll have to wait for hurricane season for that. (j/k) :)

Night all.
Quoting Xyrus2000:


Thanks. :)

No, 80 billion tons of methane wouldn't be enough. But there's actually a lot more than that available.
This is a pretty good summary of what could be expected in a worst case scenario. Granted it still wouldn't be pleasant but it isn't the end of the world. :)


cool site. thx!
#149 Correcto!

"Emily continued moving west-northwestward to the south of a mid-level subtropical ridge located over the central Atlantic and developed an irregularly shaped central dense overcast as it passed about 150 n mi south of Puerto Rico on 2 and 3 August. There was some increase in westerly shear by 3 August, and Emily did not strengthen as the low-level center of the cyclone became partially exposed to the west of the main convective mass that morning. A vigorous burst of thunderstorms developed east of the center early the next day while Emily was passing to the south of Hispaniola, and the aircraft data indicated that a low-level center reformed closer to the convection. Later on 4 August, the low-level center accelerated west-northwestward, leaving behind a mid-level cyclonic circulation within the convection that later moved inland over Hispaniola. Now lacking convective support, Emily’s surface circulation degenerated into an open wave as it approached the southwestern tip of Haiti around 1800 UTC."

The blog was buzzing on Aug. 4th. Some bloggers talked like RI was happening ... but no.
Quoting j2008:
Well....... IDK bout that, currently Alaska is frozen as cold as a freezer. -50 isnt exactly melting ground weather... I'm sure you meant over all but yea contradicterary to say it at this time.


It used to be that the permafrost stayed frozen all year round. That's why it was named "permafrost".

Now we're seeing significant melting during the hotter months. And that's a very bad thing.

Simple enough for you?
Quoting SPLbeater:


dont need dis crap here earth will NOT be like venus. ever. ever.
In a few billion years from now it will be. As the sun ages it will expand into a red giant, getting closer to our planet, thus heating it more. Never say never.
SO......any thunderstorm activity forecast for the east anytime soon?

I miss summer:(
Quoting SPLbeater:


dont need dis crap here earth will NOT be like venus. ever. ever.

What grade are you in?
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

What grade are you in?

He indicated he votes in elections, or at least why else would he get involved in politics only during elections?
166. j2008
Quoting BobWallace:


It used to be that the permafrost stayed frozen all year round. That's why it was named "permafrost".

Now we're seeing significant melting during the hotter months. And that's a very bad thing.

Simple enough for you?
HAHA yea just kidding around wanted to point out some silly irony, this blog seemed so serious today.
Quoting SPLbeater:


dont need dis crap here earth will NOT be like venus. ever. ever.

5 billion years later...
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

What grade are you in?
He's home-schooled and he's like 12 or 13...when you put things into perspective you kind start to feel bad for the kid.
Quoting RTSplayer:
113:

In order to get a real runaway greenhouse effect you'd need to burn all the remaining coal, oil,natural gas, and all remaining plant life.

Then you'd need to bake a significant portion of the Calcium Carbonate deposits of the world long enough and hot enough for it to release the CO2 into the atmosphere.

Even then, under present solar conditions, Earth should end up with a mean temperature a few degrees below boiling, and ironically, this is not hot enough to bake CO2 out of Calcium Carbonate. Which means true runaway greenhouse effect is not possible on the Earth under existing solar conditions, regardless of any amount of CO2 bombs or man-made emissions.


Might we call that "extreme runaway"?

It seems like releasing the CO2 and methane from the permafrost and Arctic waters is an adequate runaway situation that can spoil our party. It might not be enough to bake the CO2 out of rocks, but it certainly would toast our buns.

"Runaway" is the situation in which we trigger forcings beyond what we are doing by pumping greenhouse gasses into the atmosphere. Once/if we hit that point then things are likely beyond the point of our being able to reverse conditions....
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

5 billion years later...


lol thats funny there
Quoting RTSplayer:
Oh well, it's Stephen Hawking, but I don't agree with him.

Earth's maximum worst case scenario temperature should be roughly half of Venus, due to the amount of sunlight we recieve, even if Earth had a 100 bar atmosphere of pure greenhouse gases.

Problem is, that isn't hot enough to thermalize all the dirt and rock to release the CO2 in the first place.


The worst case scenario, with all the CO2 already being released from the soil and rock, does not get hot enough to facilitate it's own existence.

It would require an artificial cause, such as an alien attack or a doomsday bomb, etc.


It's not the CO2 that would do it. That would just get the ball rolling. The real determining factor would be the water vapor.

It is theorized that Venus once had oceans similar to Earth. However, due to it's slow rotational rate and closer proximity to the sun, as the solar output increased over time the water vapor content of the atmosphere increased. This eventually triggered warming that boiled off the oceans on Venus. With all the water vapor in the atmosphere acting as an impermeable thermal blanket, the temperatures skyrocketed (theoretically even hotter than the Venus of today).

This had two effects. One, it baked the planet releasing large amounts of trapped CO2. Two, it pushed the water vapor high into the atmosphere where UV radiation could split water into hydrogen and oxygen. The water vapor bled off into space, and left behind a thick scorching CO2 atmosphere in it's place.

To get to the same point on Earth, you'd need to heat the planet to the point where water vapor stayed in the atmosphere for extended periods of time ( a lot longer than the current water cycle). Even during our high greenhouse gas periods in the past we never got to that point. Sure, Earth was a global steamy swamp/jungle but it was still no where near warm enough to trigger a runaway effect.

It's not impossible. Just extremely unlikely. The only scenarios I can envision where Earth turns in to Venus are scenarios that have us and most of life wiped out long before we experience 250 C temperatures.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

What grade are you in?


none ur concern. i just know that earth will never...well...now that i think of it...Jesus said that earth would be destroyed with fire, so thats close lol xD
Quoting SPLbeater:


none ur concern. i just know that earth will never...well...now that i think of it...Jesus said that earth would be destroyed with fire, so thats close lol xD


but climate change aint gone kill me!


I just want a thunderstorm....
Quoting TomTaylor:
He's home-schooled and he's like 12 or 13...when you put things into perspective you kind start to feel bad for the kid.

That's right, he is home-schooled isn't he?

I was about to say, didn't you learn about planets and stuff in 7th grade at school?
Quoting bappit:

He indicated he votes in elections, or at least why else would he get involved in politics only during elections?
And he is the "go to" guy at church. Which would indicate he is older than 12....Unless that was a lie.
I think you're right but the jury is still out.  We got badly Trolled a while back by someone spent a crazy amount of time building a persona and then played havoc during "The Season".  One of the reasons I refuse to cut him any slack.
Quoting TomTaylor:
He's home-schooled and he's like 12 or 13...when you put things into perspective you kind start to feel bad for the kid.

Quoting hydrus:
And he is the "go to" guy at church. Which would indicate he is older than 12....Unless that was a lie.


His parents forced him but he grew to enjoy it? I know my parents forced me, but I ended up hating it and praising atheism.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

That's right, he is home-schooled isn't he?

I was about to say, didn't you learn about planets and stuff in 7th grade at school?
Even if he did, it wouldn't matter. The only textbook he believes in is the bible. His parents, or whoever raised him, did a good job of instilling this in his brain.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

That's right, he is home-schooled isn't he?

I was about to say, didn't you learn about planets and stuff in 7th grade at school?


no...i started hmeschooled in 7th. Christian cirriculum, doesnt tell false stuff. learned of earth in 5th. tried not to though.

All they told us was this crap about "Pangea, and for no reason at all, it split into continents. and for no reason at all, australia is going to move north and crush indonesia.

isnt that stupid?
This from NWS in Fairbanks:

NOAK49 PAFG 302352
PNSAFG
AKZ219-222-311200-

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
252 PM AKST MON JAN 30 2012

...CLARIFICATION OF TEMPERATURES FROM JIM RIVER DOT CAMP...

TEMPERATURES THIS PAST WEEKEND AT THE ALASKA DEPARTMENT OF
TRANSPORTATION JIM RIVER MAINTENANCE CAMP AT MILE 138 DALTON
HIGHWAY...STATION JMTA2...HAVE BEEN REPORTED AS LOW AS 79 BELOW.

THE TEMPERATURES ARE NOT CORRECT. THE WEATHER STATION IN USE AT
THE JIM RIVER DOT CAMP IS A PERSONAL WEATHER STATION THAT IS NOT
RATED FOR TEMPERATURE COLDER THAN 40 BELOW. THE UNREALISTICALLY
LOW TEMPERATURES ARE BELIEVED TO BE A FUNCTION OF THE BATTERY
FAILING AT VERY LOW TEMPERATURES.

THERE ARE NO OFFICIAL...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STANDARD...
TEMPERATURE MEASUREMENTS AT JIM RIVER DOT CAMP.

$$
RT/JL JAN 12
Quoting yqt1001:


His parents forced him but he grew to enjoy it? I know my parents forced me, but I ended up hating it and praising atheism.


i was raised in a good preachin- baptist church. at the age of 6, December 28th i accepted Christ as my personal saviour.


Never look back:) been the best years of my life :D
Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:
I think you're right but the jury is still out.  We got badly Trolled a while back by someone spent a crazy amount of time building a persona and then played havoc during "The Season".  One of the reasons I refuse to cut him any slack.



I said it before


If i am a troll, then all of wunderground is too.

because i aint:)
Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:
I think you're right but the jury is still out.  We got badly Trolled a while back by someone spent a crazy amount of time building a persona and then played havoc during "The Season".  One of the reasons I refuse to cut him any slack.

I remember him saying that quite clearly when I was giving him a hard time about a month or two ago.

Who knows though, it could just be a lie. Gotta admit, he sure plays the part well if is a lie.
Quoting SPLbeater:


no...i started hmeschooled in 7th. Christian cirriculum, doesnt tell false stuff. learned of earth in 5th. tried not to though.

All they told us was this crap about "Pangea, and for no reason at all, it split into continents. and for no reason at all, australia is going to move north and crush indonesia.

isnt that stupid?

It is a fairly accepted theory Pangea split due to a mechanism known as Plate Tectonics. I've known this since 3rd grade. Also, why didn't you want to learn more about the Earth? It's really interesting....
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

It is a fairly accepted theory Pangea split due to a mechanism known as Plate Tectonics. I've known this since 3rd grade. Also, why didn't you want to learn more about the Earth? It's really interesting....


eh, geologist just dont interest me i guess.
I would tell you the story of how i became interested in weather, but thats a loooong story lol.

Our continents have been in the same place they were when they were created some 5-6k years ago :D
Quoting SPLbeater:


no...i started hmeschooled in 7th. Christian cirriculum, doesnt tell false stuff. learned of earth in 5th. tried not to though.

All they told us was this crap about "Pangea, and for no reason at all, it split into continents. and for no reason at all, australia is going to move north and crush indonesia.

isnt that stupid?


I learned in religion class (yes, I go to a catholic school! stupid parents) that evolutionism is the accepted christian theory. This is real christianity and not the baptist stuff though, so I'm not sure (but I doubt there is a difference).
Quoting yqt1001:


His parents forced him but he grew to enjoy it? I know my parents forced me, but I ended up hating it and praising atheism.

...Rebel.

Lol.
Quoting SPLbeater:




isnt that stupid?
Link

Excuse the s word...
Quoting SPLbeater:


eh, geologist just dont interest me i guess.
I would tell you the story of how i became interested in weather, but thats a loooong story lol.

Our continents have been in the same place they were when they were created some 5-6k years ago :D

Definitely not.

Why is the blog off topic about politics and what age people are, i mean isnt this blog about WEATHER and TROPICAL WEATHER More specifically... Or DR JM's topics of the blog he posts... i mean can't we just get onto those type of topics please? if not, ill be on my way...
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

It is a fairly accepted theory Pangea split due to a mechanism known as Plate Tectonics. I've known this since 3rd grade. Also, why didn't you want to learn more about the Earth? It's really interesting....


It actually would logically explain the shape and size of our continents... But go ahead and don't believe it, enjoy being laughed at.
Quoting yqt1001:


I learned in religion class (yes, I go to a catholic school! stupid parents) that evolutionism is the accepted christian theory. This is real christianity and not the baptist stuff though, so I'm not sure (but I doubt there is a difference).


to sum up what the faithful Christian thinks of evolution, what one preacher i watched in movie sequence years ago:

"Evolution, is stupid"
Quoting ILwthrfan:


a.k.a Younger Dryas.
Link


WOW .!...The most spectacular aspect of the YD is that it ended extremely abruptly (around 11,600 years ago), and although the date cannot be known exactly, it is estimated from the annually-banded Greenland ice-core that the annual-mean temperature increased by as much as 10°C in 10 years.
Thank you for posting this link..
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
Why is the blog off topic about politics and what age people are, i mean isnt this blog about WEATHER and TROPICAL WEATHER More specifically... Or DR JM's topics of the blog he posts... i mean can't we just get onto those type of topics please? if not, ill be on my way...


i always end up as the bad guy on here.....


getting sick of all the bashin round here. kinda wish i had never created SPLbeater. yeah, i thought i would get some nice weather friends but hello reality...
.
Quoting TomTaylor:
In a few billion years from now it will be. As the sun ages it will expand into a red giant, getting closer to our planet, thus heating it more. Never say never.


I don't agree with the standard model of stellar dynamics regarding the Red Giant phase. Here's why.

The net energy release from the He to Carbon chain is about 7Mev, and involves 12 atomic mass worth of fuel, while net energy release from the Hydrogen chain to helium is 17Mev and involves 6 atomic mass worth of fuel.

7/12 vs 17/6.

the energy density of the hydrogen reaction is nearly 5 times greater per unit mass.


This means that if the Sun were going to swell into a "Giant" due to an excess of internal heating, it should be doing it right now, not in the future.

Once it runs out of hydrogen, it's remaining energy density will have diminshed by a factor of 5 per unit mass, making it extremely unlikely to be able to get hot enough to expand against the forces of
gravity that have held it together all this time.


Moroever, real nuclear reactions are not pretty little schemes where all the atoms of one type wait around for all the atoms of another type to finish reacting.

There's already Helium fusing to Carcon in the Sun right now.

Just like radioisotopes in reverse, a daughter product doesn't sit around waiting for the entire mass of a parent product to decay before it also starts to react or decay.


The textbook notion of a star suddenly one day running out of hydrogen, and then magically making a transition to Helium-only fusion is just BS. It doesn't exist in the real universe.

Even if it did exist, the star would need to begin burning it's mass 5 times faster just in order to maintain the temperature it originally had during the hydrogen phase (but the rate of burning is limited by the force of gravity, so regardless, if it could not overcome the gravity during the lighter, more energy dense hydrogen phase, it certainly won't do so in the Helium phase,) and that still would not make it expand into a multi-a.u. radius cloud of plasma. If anything, it would contract exponentially as it's density increases by making more and more dense atoms.


I digress.

The world is not ready for critical thinking. It's not your fault anyway.
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
Why is the blog off topic about politics and what age people are, i mean isnt this blog about WEATHER and TROPICAL WEATHER More specifically... Or DR JM's topics of the blog he posts... i mean can't we just get onto those type of topics please? if not, ill be on my way...


Well, not much weather going on right now. Iggy isn't exactly entertaining.

Quoting SPLbeater:


to sum up what the faithful Christian thinks of evolution, what one preacher i watched in movie sequence years ago:

"Evolution, is stupid"
Was Copernicus 1473-1543 stupid to wait until the last minute to inform the world that the Sun and not the Earth was at the center of the solar system.?
ok, im out... Really what's with all the age and gradeschool talk?
No point in staying on to watch the blog be filled with the nonsense...
By the way Neapoliton, thanks for at least trying to change the subject with fairbanks statement, but i dont think it worked...
Quoting SPLbeater:


to sum up what the faithful Christian thinks of evolution, what one preacher i watched in movie sequence years ago:

"Evolution, is stupid"

Quoting hydrus:
Was Copernicus 1473-1543 stupid to wait until the last minute to inform the world that the Sun and not the Earth was the center of the solar system.?


course not! that aint got nothin to do with evolution..das astronomy:D
Quoting SPLbeater:


to sum up what the faithful Christian thinks of evolution, what one preacher i watched in movie sequence years ago:

"Evolution, is stupid"
I'm going to recommend you learn some basic English grammar.

That way, if you practiced better spelling and grammar, at least people could understand what you are trying to say, despite how twisted and backward your logic is.
Will be no longer on, until the nonsense is filtered out in hopefully a couple days...
will be updating my twitter account on the tropics if you want to check that, but not going to be here..
HD07 im glad your one of the true weather bloggers..guess i should try that. goodbye all you people, who gots to have the last word*rolls eyes*. you can have it cuz im gone
Quoting TomTaylor:
I'm going to recommend you learn some basic English grammar.

That way, if you practiced better spelling and grammar, at least people could understand what you are trying to say, despite how twisted and backward your logic is.

Yes, English grammar is nice. :D
Quoting yqt1001:


His parents forced him but he grew to enjoy it? I know my parents forced me, but I ended up hating it and praising atheism.
I go to church. I think there is a lot to learn from the people and the Bible itself. I find some of its contents contradictory, but I have learned great things from it.
im going to tropic chat!!!!
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #6
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07F
12:00 PM FST January 31 2012
======================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression 07F (998 hPa) located at 15.3S 164.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 20-25 knots. The depression is reported as moving east southeast at 12 knots. Position poor based on multisatellite visible/infrared imagery with animation and peripheral surface observations.

Organization has improved slightly in the past 06 hours. Convection remains persistent in the past 24 hours. System lies under an upper diffluent region. Depression lies in a region of low to moderate shear. Sea surface temperature is around 29-30C. System is being steered to the southeast by deep layer mean northwesterly into a region of decreasing shear.

Global models are gradually intensifying the system and moving it southeastwards.

Potential for this system to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 24 to 48 hours is moderate to high.

The next tropical cyclone advisory from Fiji Meteorological Services will be issued at 8:30 AM UTC.
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09F
12:00 PM FST January 31 2012
======================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression 09F (999 hPa) located at 19.0S 173.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 20 knots. The depression is reported as moving southeast at 10 knots. Position fair based on multisatellite visible/infrared imagery with animation and peripheral surface observation.

Convection remains persistent but displaced to the east of the low level circulation center. Overall organization has not improved much in the past 12 hours. Depression lies downstream of 250hpa trough and under the left hand entrance of the jet. System lies in an area of low to moderate shear and is moving into a region of decreasing shear. Sea surface temperature is around 28-29C.

Global models move the system south-southeast then southwest with slight intensification.

Potential for this system to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 24 to 48 hours is low to moderate.

The next tropical cyclone advisory from Fiji Meteorological Services will be issued at 8:30 AM UTC..
Quoting SPLbeater:
HD07 im glad your one of the true weather bloggers..guess i should try that. goodbye all you people, who gots to have the last word*rolls eyes*. you can have it cuz im gone

Why are you leaving? Nobody is bashing you...We're just trying to help you considering that, for a lack of a better word, very concieded. Whoever taught you about all of this stuff did a very good job.
Quoting SPLbeater:


Of course not! That ain't got nothing to do with evolution..That's astronomy! :D

Your grammar is atrocious. Tried to proofread it, I think that's what you wanted to say.

Good Night.
Quoting hydrus:
I go to church. I think there is a lot to learn from the people and the Bible itself. I find some of its contents contradictory, but I have learned great things from it.


I've always been doubtful of the existence of a higher being. In school, we would be taught about God, but I always thought that it was complete nonsense. I believed more in Santa than in God when I was little.

The internet also has a huge atheist community, and that was probably the final straw in my religious belief. If I felt I could fit in somewhere for my opinion, I was fine with completely taking myself away from a religion (although, today I'm proud of my opinion and I couldn't care what other people think of me :D ).

Today, I'm a moderate supporter of judaism, but I wouldn't consider joining the faith, just following some of the values of the faith.
Quoting RTSplayer:


I don't agree with the standard model of stellar dynamics regarding the Red Giant phase. Here's why.

The net energy release from the He to Carbon chain is about 7Mev, and involves 12 atomic mass worth of fuel, while net energy release from the Hydrogen chain to helium is 17Mev and involves 6 atomic mass worth of fuel.

7/12 vs 17/6.

the energy density of the hydrogen reaction is nearly 5 times greater per unit mass.


This means that if the Sun were going to swell into a "Giant" due to an excess of internal heating, it should be doing it right now, not in the future.

Once it runs out of hydrogen, it's remaining energy density will have diminshed by a factor of 5 per unit mass, making it extremely unlikely to be able to get hot enough to expand against the forces of
gravity that have held it together all this time.


Moroever, real nuclear reactions are not pretty little schemes where all the atoms of one type wait around for all the atoms of another type to finish reacting.

There's already Helium fusing to Carcon in the Sun right now.

Just like radioisotopes in reverse, a daughter product doesn't sit around waiting for the entire mass of a parent product to decay before it also starts to react or decay.


The textbook notion of a star suddenly one day running out of hydrogen, and then magically making a transition to Helium-only fusion is just BS. It doesn't exist in the real universe.

Even if it did exist, the star would need to begin burning it's mass 5 times faster just in order to maintain the temperature it originally had during the hydrogen phase (but the rate of burning is limited by the force of gravity, so regardless, if it could not overcome the gravity during the lighter, more energy dense hydrogen phase, it certainly won't do so in the Helium phase,) and that still would not make it expand into a multi-a.u. radius cloud of plasma. If anything, it would contract exponentially as it's density increases by making more and more dense atoms.


I digress.

The world is not ready for critical thinking. It's not your fault anyway.
I agree it doesn't magically transition from one element to the next, instead it's probably already doing some of one element before finishing off the previous.

Anyway, the explanation behind the expansion of the sun, from what I understand, is that the heavier Helium (and later even heavier elements) sinks to the core of the sun. As these elements sink inwards, the pressure goes up and so does the temperature, allowing for fusion of the heavier elements to occur, and also causing the star to expand.

I'm certainly not an expert, but it does make sense from what I understand. It is just a theory, however, so you can certainly try and prove the current accepted life cycle of a star false.
215. j2008
I feel like we are in English class right now........ Any thoughts on the SPac haveing 9 Disturbences and 5 Deppressions and not a single TC to show for it? Wierd IMO.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

That's right, he is home-schooled isn't he?

I was about to say, didn't you learn about planets and stuff in 7th grade at school?
Dont be to obtrusive about people who are home schooled. I have known a few.( you meet quite a few when you live on board ) and they are not only intelligent, but kind, responsible and trustworthy.
Quoting SPLbeater:
im going to tropic chat!!!!
Looks like a party!!

Quoting yqt1001:


I've always been doubtful of the existence of a higher being. In school, we would be taught about God, but I always thought that it was complete nonsense. I believed more in Santa than in God when I was little.

The internet also has a huge atheist community, and that was probably the final straw in my religious belief. If I felt I could fit in somewhere for my opinion, I was fine with completely taking myself away from a religion (although, today I'm proud of my opinion and I couldn't care what other people think of me :D ).

Today, I'm a moderate supporter of judaism, but I wouldn't consider joining the faith, just following some of the values of the faith.
I posted some things a few days ago you might have appreciated. I believe that good wins out over evil..That is my religion..:)
Quoting TomTaylor:
Looks like a party!!


Oh come on, that was just mean, Tom. :P
you can find me on Twitter, by searching Ty Jarrett, or @TropicsWatch
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Why are you leaving? Nobody is bashing you...We're just trying to help you considering that, for a lack of a better word, very concieded. Whoever taught you about all of this stuff did a very good job.


you can thank God almighty for guiding my parents to get me away from all the trash taught in public.


I return to tropics chat.
Quoting SPLbeater:
HD07 im glad your one of the true weather bloggers..guess i should try that. goodbye all you people, who gots to have the last word*rolls eyes*. you can have it cuz im gone
I do admire your passion for faith.
6.3 magnitude earthquake rattles coast of Peru- 119 injured
Posted on January 30, 2012
January 30, 2012 – PERU – A earthquake of 6.3 magnitude rattled the coast of Peru early on Monday, the U.S. Geological Survey said, but there were no immediate reports of damage or injuries. The quake occurred shortly after midnight local time (1 a.m. ET) and was centered about 9 miles southeast of the city of Ica and about 170 miles south-southeast of Lima. Witnesses said the quake shook buildings in coastal Lima, Peru’s capital. Although there were no reported injuries or damage, local radio said residents near the epicenter were alarmed and ran outside their homes when they felt the quake. Power was out in nearby Pisco, the radio said. “We felt a terrible earthquake that’s really scared us,” Ica resident Blanca Cabanilla told the local radio. “It was similar to what happened to us in 2007.” An 8.0 quake in 2007 killed more than 500 people in Ica and wrecked thousands of homes. -Reuters
According to local media reports, 119 people were injured after a 6.3 -degree earthquake shook Peru early Monday morning. The injury toll is expected to continue to increase as Ica’s Civil Defense office continues to update its reports. Authorities also reported 16 homes were damaged, and one was made uninhabitable. Officials continue to evaluate Ica’s rural areas. Cesar Chonate, head of Indeci in Ica, said most of the injuries had been minor bumps and bruises. “There is only one case of a pelvic fracture, which is considered more serious, but all the rest have been bumps, cuts, bruises, which have resulted from people trying to desperately evacuate their homes, and rolled down the stairs,” he said, according to El Comercio. Many residents spent the night in parks and streets due to fears of possible aftershocks. According to RPP, the quake was felt in Lima, Ica, Chincha, Pisco, Ancansh, Huancayo, Huanuco, Arequipa and Cusco. Peru’s Geophysical Institute said tremor’s epicenter was located 47 kilometers southwest of the city of Ica and had a depth of 48 kilometers. –Peru this week
Quoting SPLbeater:


you can thank God almighty for guiding my parents to get me away from all the trash taught in public.


I return to tropics chat.

That post right there is going to lead to serious conflict on the blog.

I'm going to bed now...
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Oh come on, that was just mean, Tom. :P
Couldn't help it lol
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

That post right there is going to lead to serious conflict on the blog.

I'm going to bed now...
c ya later
I guess i'll join the people in tropics chat ;)
I think I'm gonna sign off too, later all
well tropics chat not working, IM GONE TOO!
Published: January 30th, 2012 at 02:54 PM EDT By Enenews Admin

UPDATED: Emergency shutdown at Illinois reactor — Smoke was actually steam containing radioactive material — Workers evacuated — Releases will continue throughout day (PHOTO)

Title: Byron Station Declares Unusual Event
Source: Exelon Press Release
Date: Jan 30, 2012
Emphasis Added

[...] Operators at Byron Generating Station declared an Unusual Event at 10:18 a.m.CT, due to the loss of offsite power and Unit 2 coming offline.

The nuclear facility’s diesel generators activated as designed to provide power to the facility when there is a loss of offsite power to the facility. The facility remains in a safe condition. Station engineering experts are looking into the cause of the loss of offsite power.

Byron Station is designed to depressurize to reduce steam pressure as part of the many redundant safety systems built into the facility. Steam from the unit is released through safety relief valves that are specifically designed for this purpose. The steam, which will evaporate quickly, contained expected levels of tritium. Local residents may see or hear the steam release in progress, which will continue throughout the day until the unit cools down. These types of station releases are regulated by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission.

There is no health or safety impact to workers or to the public from the release, and Exelon Nuclear has notified allappropriate local, state and federal officials of the Unusual Event. [...]
REALITY DENIERS PARTY IN TROPICS CHAT!!!! WOOT!!!
Indonesia~ A flash flood swept through five subdistricts in Probolinggo district, East Java, on Sunday morning, destroying thousands of houses. The flood occurred so quickly that residents had no chance to save their belongings, chief of the Probolinggo district natural disaster mitigation board (BPBD) Masyhuri Efendi said. At least six people were reported missing. The flood also destroyed public utilities such as school buildings, and places of worship and carried away livestock. The five flash flood-affected subdistricts are Kraksaan, Gading, Krejengan, Pakuniran, and Pajarakan He said the flash flood was caused by the overflowing of Pekalen river following heavy rains in the upper reach of the river at Mount Argopuro. Hundreds of people were taking refuge at higher ground along with their livestock for fear that another flash flood would recur. Tens of security personnel were deployed to flood-hit villages such as Patemon village. Krejengan subdistrict head Suharto said the flood inflicted billions of rupiahs in losses at Patemon village alone.He said the flash flood also cut off three bamboo bridges which linked the village to other villages in the subdistrict.
236. j2008
Looks as if this blog is done for the night, going to watch the rest of fear factor. I'll check back in tomorrow.
Well, Here's the news im gonna break to you guys...
I will no longer be on this Blog much, if at all, I might be back for the Hurricane season, i might not, but as of right now, you're better off keeping up with my tropical updates on my Twitter Account,
Ty Jarrett- @TropicsWatch
So, well there it is ^^^^
i might update my blog, but you'll have to look it up in the blog directory to see it...
HD07 RIP: 2010 Season to 2012. Tracked since 2008 on here, but will not be apart of this place much anymore...
Thyroid pandemic
Posted by Mochizuki on January 30th, 2012 · 3 Comments

Following up this article ..26 of 3765 children had thyroid tumor

The result shows more 1091 children had tumor, which is smaller than 5.0mm.

In total, 1143 of 3765 (30.36%) had thyroid tumor.

Thyroid pandemic Is this rate normal ?

The chairman of Exploratory Committee ,Yamashita Shunichi (Mr.100mSv) asserts, it is all benignity for some reason.

Tajiri clinic, a physician, who specializes in thyroid disease, in Kumamoto answered like this below.

This is a Q&A with his patient about thyroid problem of a child. (1998)

Question

My third daughter (4 years old, born in 5/24/1994,15kg,101cm) got a tumor on her right side of thyroid since last June. had blood test, urine test, X-ray, ultrasound, and fine-needle aspiration cytology and the doctor said it is benignity. However, it’s already 4cm, he told me she might need a surgery. Because it is risky unless she weighs 25kg, he wants to wait until she becomes 6 years old. Is there any way not to have surgery ?
The hospital told me it was their first time to see a 4 years old girl. The doctor is really nice but my daughter is scared of the tests, she got to hate hospitals.





Answer

I’m sincerely sorry for you. First of all, thyroid nodule of children is really rare. According to a medical report, 20~73% of thyroid nodule grows to cancer in case of children. From the result of ultrasound and fine-needle aspiration cytology, it is likely to benignity, but follicular cancer of the thyroid can not be detected by those 2 tests sometimes. In your case, it is already 4cm, which is very large. I recommend you to have surgery. TSH medication can only treat 20% of the cases, it can not be recommended. Ethanol local injection would be very painful for her. As a result, there is no other way than surgery with general anesthesia seemingly. ….


As a result, that “30%” is extraordinary, and 20~73 % of them would grow to be cancer.
Wild fires in S Africa. Looks like the goal is to get everyone out of in front of them..
241. j2008
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
Well, Here's the news im gonna break to you guys...
I will no longer be on this Blog much, if at all, I might be back for the Hurricane season, i might not, but as of right now, you're better off keeping up with my tropical updates on my Twitter Account,
Ty Jarrett- @TropicsWatch
So, well there it is ^^^^
i might update my blog, but you'll have to look it up in the blog directory to see it...
HD07 RIP: 2010 Season to 2012. Tracked since 2008 on here, but will not be apart of this place much anymore...

Just happened to see this before I called it a night, I wish you well Dean, Hope you do decide to come back for cane season. Best wishes, signed "J".
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
Well, Here's the news im gonna break to you guys...
I will no longer be on this Blog much, if at all, I might be back for the Hurricane season, i might not, but as of right now, you're better off keeping up with my tropical updates on my Twitter Account,
Ty Jarrett- @TropicsWatch
So, well there it is ^^^^
i might update my blog, but you'll have to look it up in the blog directory to see it...
HD07 RIP: 2010 Season to 2012. Tracked since 2008 on here, but will not be apart of this place much anymore...


aw come on Dean, dont leave. i aint one of them who is always off topic...atleast try to be:)
Quoting WxGeekVA:
REALITY DENIERS PARTY IN TROPICS CHAT!!!! WOOT!!!


im still there...lol
Iggy is causing havoc.. At least 16 people were confirmed killed and more than 2,300 houses damaged in torrential rains and strong winds that lashed much of Indonesia over the past few days. Sutopo Purwo Nugroho, a spokesman for the National Disaster Mitigation Agency (BNPB), said on Sunday that most of those killed were struck by trees felled by severe winds. “Fourteen people were crushed by falling trees,” the spokesman said. “In total, 60 people were injured.” He added that more than 2,300 houses in 35 districts and cities across Java and Bali had been damaged in the last four days due to heavy winds and rain whipped up by Tropical Cyclone Iggy, churning just south of Bali and the Nusa Tenggara island chain. “But now Tropical Cyclone Iggy has weakened and is moving away from Indonesia,” he said. Elsewhere in the country, at least two other people were confirmed killed as a result of the foul weather.

In Bali, the heavy rains caused a massive landslide on Saturday in the Taman Ayun Temple area, a popular tourist spot, killing an 18-month-old baby. Ketut Parwa, the head of the Bali Search and Rescue Agency, said the child had been asleep with her mother at a food stall in the temple’s parking lot when the disaster struck at 11 p.m. They had gone to the food stall to take shelter from the rain. Parwa said the 12-meter-high precipice on which the food stall was located suddenly gave way, burying the child in tons of mud. The mother managed to escape. Rescuers recovered the child’s body on Sunday evening. In Lebak district, Banten, authorities recovered the body of a boy who had been swept away and drowned in a river. They are continuing their search for a friend who was with him. Irna, an official with the local search team, said the victims, both 14-year-old students at an Islamic boarding school, went missing on Friday while swimming in the rain-swollen Ciberang River. One of the bodies was recovered later that day and given to the family for burial.

“We’ve combed a four-kilometer stretch of the river over the past two days, but we still haven’t been able to find the second boy,” Irna said. “We’re having great difficulty in our search because of the strong current in the river.” Also in Banten, strong winds damaged hundreds of homes, including 334 of the 790 houses at the Kota Bumi 2 residential estate in Tangerang. Retno, the marketing head for real estate developer Karsatama Bumi Permai, said the company would compensate residents whose homes were damaged when the strong gusts hit last Thursday. She said most of the damage consisted of tiles being blown off roofs, although there were reports that the walls of some houses had also collapsed. In Kediri, East Java, strong wings uprooted almost 11,000 trees at plantations run by state forester Kesatuan Pemangku Hutan. Erik Alberto, a KPH official, said some of the trees uprooted were 16 years old, indicating the strength of the wind gusts.
Quoting RTSplayer:


I don't agree with the standard model of stellar dynamics regarding the Red Giant phase. Here's why.

The net energy release from the He to Carbon chain is about 7Mev, and involves 12 atomic mass worth of fuel, while net energy release from the Hydrogen chain to helium is 17Mev and involves 6 atomic mass worth of fuel.

7/12 vs 17/6.

the energy density of the hydrogen reaction is nearly 5 times greater per unit mass.


This means that if the Sun were going to swell into a "Giant" due to an excess of internal heating, it should be doing it right now, not in the future.

Once it runs out of hydrogen, it's remaining energy density will have diminshed by a factor of 5 per unit mass, making it extremely unlikely to be able to get hot enough to expand against the forces of
gravity that have held it together all this time.


Moroever, real nuclear reactions are not pretty little schemes where all the atoms of one type wait around for all the atoms of another type to finish reacting.

There's already Helium fusing to Carcon in the Sun right now.

Just like radioisotopes in reverse, a daughter product doesn't sit around waiting for the entire mass of a parent product to decay before it also starts to react or decay.


The textbook notion of a star suddenly one day running out of hydrogen, and then magically making a transition to Helium-only fusion is just BS. It doesn't exist in the real universe.

Even if it did exist, the star would need to begin burning it's mass 5 times faster just in order to maintain the temperature it originally had during the hydrogen phase (but the rate of burning is limited by the force of gravity, so regardless, if it could not overcome the gravity during the lighter, more energy dense hydrogen phase, it certainly won't do so in the Helium phase,) and that still would not make it expand into a multi-a.u. radius cloud of plasma. If anything, it would contract exponentially as it's density increases by making more and more dense atoms.


I digress.

The world is not ready for critical thinking. It's not your fault anyway.


So you disagree with the generally accepted evolution of stars onto the Main Sequence and then off and into the Red Giant phase as they age over billions of years?

As I remember, (long time ago LSU astronomy) an average size star like the Sun takes about 10 billion years for this process. Bigger stars burn faster and hotter and don't last as long while smaller stars burn cooler and slower and can last a lot longer. The star actually expanded because the main hydrogen burning moved away from the Star's center due to fuel depletion there and with that there was less matter above it balancing the heat of the fusion reactions hence the expansion. At some point the situation becomes unstable and the star's interior collapses by gravity, interior temperatures soar, and a new round of fusion reactions can begin. If the star is massive enough these new reactions can progress till the fusion reactions produce iron. After that nova or supernova, depending on mass. Well at least, that's how I remember it and it still makes sense.
Quoting hydrus:
I do admire your passion for faith.


But too much zeal can become dangerous.
Now we can blame Mr. Burns....

More vegetables are deformed from stress
Posted by Mochizuki on January 15th, 2012

More mutated vegetables are found and reported. According to some expert, it’s from stress and especially female are worse at handling the stress. Some other experts are pointing out the possibility of midlife crisis of vegetables.

Japanese government’s official statement is that those vegetables forgot to smile when they were irradiated.

1. Mutated tomato in Oze, Fukushima.9/16/2011.

The farmer thinks too much nutrition was the stress for the tomato. He talks he was depressed to harvest those tomatos.(Source)


2. More mutated tomato in Kawasakihara, Fukushima.
The farmer thinks the bug was the stress for this tomato.(Source)



3. Mutated cucumber in Osaka.

The person who found this also found extraordinary big mushrooms in her garden.(Source)





Eggplant



6. Stressed “Fish” found having 2 mouths in Lincoin Nebraska 12/21/2011. Cf.0.36 microSv/h from snowfall in Saint Louis

This was last September..Got a new respect for the yellow bus..
LATEST HEADLINES Link

State of Wisconsin issues statement on nuclear Cincident in Illinois Currently monitoring conditions after plant lost power and went offline - 10:01 PM EST

Fireman Eyewitness: It looked like a lot of smoke coming from containment building at Byron nuclear plant Had to be told it was steam Original call said a building at Byron nuclear plant was filling up with smoke (VIDEO) - 07:33 PM EST

Reporters at Byron Press Conference: A lot of people are calling us about a loud noise Was a special emergency response team on scene? (VIDEO) - 06:21 PM EST (Comments: 9)
NRC: Not a huge concern at nuke plant outside Chicago Employees reported seeing smoke coming from transformer after outage, no fire found - 04:10 PM EST

UPDATED: Emergency shutdown at Illinois reactor Smoke was actually steam containing radioactive material Workers evacuated Releases will continue throughout day (PHOTO) - 02:54 PM EST


bedtime. night all
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
Well, Here's the news im gonna break to you guys...
I will no longer be on this Blog much, if at all, I might be back for the Hurricane season, i might not, but as of right now, you're better off keeping up with my tropical updates on my Twitter Account,
Ty Jarrett- @TropicsWatch
So, well there it is ^^^^
i might update my blog, but you'll have to look it up in the blog directory to see it...
HD07 RIP: 2010 Season to 2012. Tracked since 2008 on here, but will not be apart of this place much anymore...


Dean, this, too, will pass. Probably faster than we realize in the midst of it.
Quoting Skyepony:
This was last September..Got a new respect for the yellow bus..


Oh. My. God.
For those of you in Florida or in the GOM....

Long-Term Response Plan for Possible Cuban Oil Spill

ScienceDaily (Jan. 30, 2012) Nova Southeastern University (NSU) and Florida International University (FIU) researchers have drafted a plan to best prepare South Florida for an oil spill off the coast of Cuba.

The proximity of intended Cuban oil drilling and production puts the U.S. coastal zone at risk from Florida to the Carolinas and northward. Oil from a spill would quickly enter the Gulf Stream and reach Florida's shores in hours or days with potentially devastating effects on the densely populated South Florida coastline and its coastal ecosystems. South Florida's accounts for 3.4 million jobs and 45 percent of the $587 billion contribution to Florida's GDP generated by coastal and ocean economic activity.

A likely first impact of a major spill would be the iconic and economically valuable Florida Reef Track, a coral reef ecosystem that stretches from the Dry Torgugas in the Keys to Palm Beach County. Effects could be devastating to the ecology of the reef, Florida's beaches, coastal property and South Florida's economy.


Read the full article..... Link
Are we really bullying people again??.Hopefully the tone will be different tomorrow night.I'm still doing research on warm winter's for the U.S to see if that has some correlation to U.S hurricane Landfalls.I'm going to write a blog on it when I get around to it,maybe some time around April or May.
Quoting washingtonian115:
Are we really bullying people again??.Hopefully the tone will be different tomorrow night.I'm still doing research on warm winter's for the U.S to see if that has some correlation to U.S hurricane Landfalls.I'm going to write a blog on it when I get around to it,maybe some time around April or May.


Look forward to seeing it!
With the last front everyone I know that had nosebleeds regular during the deepwater spill had one. Day after all that heavy chaff we tracked the night before on radar. Looked around. Modis missed the gulf that one day.. Wings of care was last out there end of Dec saw plenty of sheen, they & others say spraying with dispersant is ongoing. In Nov BP & some clean up boats went to check out natural seeps in the area that have been leaking heavy since Aug..

There was also out in the last day or two that the dispersant that was applied at the wellhead hasn't much mixed in or broken down like expected. Still sitting in underwater plumes of oil.
Iggy is looking nice (especially for a 50mph TS according to the JTWC).

Quoting yqt1001:
Iggy is looking nice (especially for a 50mph TS according to the JTWC).

Iggy looks Icky(I'm sorry I can't help it).Anyway that's my last saying for tonight.Gonna go to bed now.Have a meeting at 9:30 in the morning.(Yawns).
Quoting KoritheMan:


Look forward to seeing it!
Thanks :).
Quoting Skyepony:
This was last September..Got a new respect for the yellow bus..

They were stupid and lucky.
245:

I'll be honest.

I had about 3 pages response written detailing my positon more completely and explaining all my reasoning behind it, but I've decided not to post it.

Suffice it to say, my theory isn't even that far out of the mainstream compared to some things proposed by technically more qualified opponents of the mainstream.

I mean, I know of former NASA employee who have presented solar theories that are virtually polar opposites of the mainstream theory. Not that I agree with those either, but some people are convinced the Sun is already a decaying neutron Star. Others are convinced that attractive gravity is an illusion, instead gravity is a repulsive force caused by cosmic radiation pressure at an absurdly small wavelength, and the Sun is millions of times more massive than we think it is, but the mass of large objects such as Jupiter and the Sun is hidden by a mass shadow defect, because it can't be penetrated by the repulsive gravity radiation. Morever, the math of this theory actually works in every testable way and is self consistent. Yet it's not accepted by anyone, nor do I accept it, it's just something to think about.


Point is, the mainstream stellar model is after all, just a theory and a model.

Even "theory" is a bit of a stretch, since nobody is going to be around to observe the end of the Sun's life cycle and make adjustments or corrections. It's more of a hypothesis, and for human terms, is virtually non-falsifiable.

Meh, wrote two pages to explain why I wasn't writing two pages. Go figure.
firefox ueser like me


if you do not wont too be put up with the upgradeing evere 6 weeks there is now going too be a firefox 10 ESR wish means it will be upgraded evere 42 weeks wish is 7x slower then the Norml firefox 10


but if you cant wait for it you can take it for a test drive


plzs note when firefox 10 be comes live tuesday you need too un stall that one from that site you got it from and in stall the real one or your ad ons will not work

Link
Quoting Tazmanian:
firefox ueser like me


if you do not wont too be put up with the upgradeing evere 6 weeks there is now going too be a firefox 10 ESR wish means it will be upgraded evere 42 weeks wish is 7x slower then the Norml firefox 10


but if you cant wait for it you can take it for a test drive


plzs note when firefox 10 be comes live tuesday you need too un stall that one from that site you got it from and in stall the real one or your ad ons will not work

Link


Thanks Taz!
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Brisbane
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
FORECAST FOR EASTERN AUSTRALIA REGION BETWEEN 142E-160E SOUTH OF 10S
2:30 pm EST January 31 2012
===================================

The monsoon trough extends across north Queensland and the northern Coral Sea and is expected to develop further over the next few days. A weak low currently sits over western Cape York Peninsula and is forecast to move east into the Coral Sea later in the week. Further development is likely while the low is forecast to continue moving east across the Coral Sea. If this low does become a tropical cyclone it is unlikely to have any significant impacts along the Queensland coast.

Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential
====================================

Wednesday: Very Low
Thursday: Low
Friday: Moderate
Quoting yqt1001:
Iggy is looking nice (especially for a 50mph TS according to the JTWC).



Kind of reminds me of Erin over ohlahoma city... similar structure vs intensity situation.


Quoting RTSplayer:


I don't agree with the standard model of stellar dynamics regarding the Red Giant phase. Here's why.

The net energy release from the He to Carbon chain is about 7Mev, and involves 12 atomic mass worth of fuel, while net energy release from the Hydrogen chain to helium is 17Mev and involves 6 atomic mass worth of fuel.

7/12 vs 17/6.

the energy density of the hydrogen reaction is nearly 5 times greater per unit mass.


This means that if the Sun were going to swell into a "Giant" due to an excess of internal heating, it should be doing it right now, not in the future.

Once it runs out of hydrogen, it's remaining energy density will have diminshed by a factor of 5 per unit mass, making it extremely unlikely to be able to get hot enough to expand against the forces of
gravity that have held it together all this time.


Moroever, real nuclear reactions are not pretty little schemes where all the atoms of one type wait around for all the atoms of another type to finish reacting.

There's already Helium fusing to Carcon in the Sun right now.

Just like radioisotopes in reverse, a daughter product doesn't sit around waiting for the entire mass of a parent product to decay before it also starts to react or decay.


The textbook notion of a star suddenly one day running out of hydrogen, and then magically making a transition to Helium-only fusion is just BS. It doesn't exist in the real universe.

Even if it did exist, the star would need to begin burning it's mass 5 times faster just in order to maintain the temperature it originally had during the hydrogen phase (but the rate of burning is limited by the force of gravity, so regardless, if it could not overcome the gravity during the lighter, more energy dense hydrogen phase, it certainly won't do so in the Helium phase,) and that still would not make it expand into a multi-a.u. radius cloud of plasma. If anything, it would contract exponentially as it's density increases by making more and more dense atoms.


I digress.

The world is not ready for critical thinking. It's not your fault anyway.


If stars operated how you postulated there wouldn't be any stars around today, having burnt through all their fuel at very accelerated rates, or stopped fusing altogether due to a buildup of heavier nuclei preventing nuclear collisions. It would also change the general distribution of the elements throughout the universe, as by your model heavier elements would already be generated by young or middle aged stars. Other side effects of your model would also include upending special relativity, stellar nucleosynthesis, and indirectly nuclear fission. I also feel bad for all those poor guys working on the ITER and LIF projects, because by your hypothesis, they are doing it wrong.

Basically, your model would require a complete rework of several well established branches of nuclear physics, which have at least 70 years of research, data, and observations backing them up.

Your hypothesis doesn't appear to match observations, and leaves at least several gaps that need to be filled in before taking it before a review board. That's not to say your hypothesis can't work, it's just that right now it's not really all that solid.

The current theory goes something like this (very simplified). The energy released from a fusion reaction is based on the binding energy of the nuclei being fused. The heavier the nuclei, the more energy it takes to fuse (in general). Fusion reactions are energy positive (with decreasing returns) up until you hit iron. After that, fusion reactions become a net loss. The energy can be calculated by using Einstein's famous equation E = mc^2, where in this case m represents the mass difference between the original nuclei and the fused nuclei (mass is lost in fusion reactions, converted to energy).

Due to the binding energy, it takes higher and higher temperatures before fusion can take place. Hydrogen nuclei have the lowest binding energy so happens at relatively low temperatures (also helped along by the density/pressure of the sun's core). Helium requires a much higher temperature to fuse, and produces less energy than the hydrogen reaction. The sun will keep fusing hydrogen to helium until the increased density/pressure allow the temperatures to reach the threshold for helium burning. The hydrogen isn't gone at that point, but a lot of it will have already been converted to helium. Once the helium burn cycle starts the temperature increases and causes the sun to expand.

This fuel cycle continues stepping in this manner until it reaches iron/nickel. At that point, the stepping stops as it takes more energy to fuse those and heavier nuclei than the reaction produces. After that the sun will begin to cool and shrink.

Of course this is a very much simplified explanation, and there are plenty of online resources and various textbooks on the subject.
Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin
TROPICAL CYCLONE IGGY, CATEGORY ONE (11U)
3:00 PM WST January 31 2012
=================================

At 2:00 PM WST, Tropical Cyclone Iggy, Category One (985 hPa) located at 22.6S 108.6E or 570 km west of Exmouth and 570 km west northwest of Carnarvon has 10 minute sustained winds of 45 knots with gusts of 65 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving southwest at 10 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/3.0/W0.5/24 HRS

Gale Force Winds
--------------------
60 NM from the center in northern quadrants
100 NM from the center in southern quadrants

Forecast and Intensity
======================

12 HRS: 24.5S 107.7E - 40 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS: 26.7S 107.5E - 35 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS: 28.4S 109.9E - 30 knots (TROPICAL LOW)
72 HRS: 28.2S 113.1E - 25 knots (TROPICAL LOW)

Additional Information
=======================

Deep convection reduced over night and this morning's visible imagery shows limited deep convection near the center despite low shear. Organization is good but the convective signature relatively weak. The ASCAT pass at 0134 shows limited gales with winds up to 40 knots. Given the system is weakening and is not likely to have very strong wind gradients ASCAT is likely to be capturing close to the maximum winds.

Banding eye analyses are yielding DT 3.0 but in contrast using enhanced infrared eye analyses on the weak eye feature evident during the morning yields DTs of 4 or 4.5. ADT is running at around 3.0 and no AMSU estimate has been available since the 17Z pass. Final intensity estimate is set at 40 knots 10-min mean.

Shear is currently very low, which is likely why the system has shown such good organization in recent hours despite a relative lack of deep convection, however the shear is forecast to increase overnight. Interaction with a passing mid latitude trough to the south should provide a period of enhanced outflow on the southern side and may encourage regeneration of some convection overnight during the diurnally favorable period. For this reason a relatively slow weakening trend is forecast. Gales may continue on the southern side for a period after the system has weakened below TC intensity due to interaction with a high pressure system building in from the southwest.

Good agreement between the models on the track with majority of models taking the remnant system towards the west coast from Wednesday. Minority of models have the system weakening sufficiently to be steered off to the west. With a passing mid-latitude trough to the south on Wednesday the steering is toward the east at all levels except 850hPa. There is some discrepancy in the sea surface temperature analyses available from different sources but by Wednesday the sea surface temperatures should also be forcing a strong weakening trend.

The next tropical cyclone advice from Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center on TC IGGY will be issued at 12:30 PM UTC..
Quoting KoritheMan:


Thanks Taz!



your welcome
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09F
18:00 PM FST January 31 2012
======================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression 09F (999 hPa) located at 19.9S 172.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 20 knots. The depression is reported as moving southwest at 10 knots. Position fair based on multisatellite visible/infrared imagery with animation and peripheral surface observation.

Convection has decreased significantly in the past 12 hours. Organization is poor for the past 12 hours. This system lies in a region of high shear and is moving into an area of cooler sea surface temperature.

Global models move the system further south and is weakening it.

This will be the last advisory on this system
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #7
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07F
18:00 PM FST January 31 2012
======================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression 07F (998 hPa) located at 15.4S 165.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots. The depression is reported as moving southeast at 10 knots. Position fair based on multisatellite visible/infrared imagery with animation and peripheral surface observation

Organization has improved slightly in the past 06 hours. Deep convection near the system center has increased in the last 12 hours With cloud tops cooling. System lies under an upper diffluent region And to the east of an upper trough. Depression lies in a region of Moderate shear and is being steered to the southeast by a deep layer Mean northwesterly wind flow. Sea surface temperature is around 29-30C.

Dvorak analysis based on 0.3 wrap, thus yields Dt= 2.0, met and pt agrees. Ft based on DT.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0/2.0/D0.5/24 hrs.

Global models are gradually intensifying the system and moving it southeastwards.

Potential for this system to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 24 to 48 hours is moderate to high.

The next tropical cyclone advisory from Fiji Meteorological Services will be issued at 14:30 PM UTC..
276. Ylee
Finally! We finally find out the true identity of Levi......;-)

feds are reevaluating properties here in e cen fl. concerning flood insurance wonder if they take into consideration that e cen fl. has not one landfalling major hurricane acc to the records bet not.
278. Xeloi
Quoting RTSplayer:


I don't agree with the standard model of stellar dynamics regarding the Red Giant phase. Here's why.

The net energy release from the He to Carbon chain is about 7Mev, and involves 12 atomic mass worth of fuel, while net energy release from the Hydrogen chain to helium is 17Mev and involves 6 atomic mass worth of fuel.

7/12 vs 17/6.

the energy density of the hydrogen reaction is nearly 5 times greater per unit mass.


This means that if the Sun were going to swell into a "Giant" due to an excess of internal heating, it should be doing it right now, not in the future.

Once it runs out of hydrogen, it's remaining energy density will have diminshed by a factor of 5 per unit mass, making it extremely unlikely to be able to get hot enough to expand against the forces of
gravity that have held it together all this time.


Moroever, real nuclear reactions are not pretty little schemes where all the atoms of one type wait around for all the atoms of another type to finish reacting.

There's already Helium fusing to Carcon in the Sun right now.

Just like radioisotopes in reverse, a daughter product doesn't sit around waiting for the entire mass of a parent product to decay before it also starts to react or decay.


The textbook notion of a star suddenly one day running out of hydrogen, and then magically making a transition to Helium-only fusion is just BS. It doesn't exist in the real universe.

Even if it did exist, the star would need to begin burning it's mass 5 times faster just in order to maintain the temperature it originally had during the hydrogen phase (but the rate of burning is limited by the force of gravity, so regardless, if it could not overcome the gravity during the lighter, more energy dense hydrogen phase, it certainly won't do so in the Helium phase,) and that still would not make it expand into a multi-a.u. radius cloud of plasma. If anything, it would contract exponentially as it's density increases by making more and more dense atoms.


I digress.

The world is not ready for critical thinking. It's not your fault anyway.


I actually feel that I am qualified to comment on this one -- I have a PhD in Astrophysics.

Just because the energy density is lower doesn't really mean much. A "living" star is always in a state known as "hydrostatic equilibrium" -- the radiation pressure from nuclear fusion and the gas pressure from the hot plasma pushing outwards is balanced by the gravitational pressure pushing downwards. When the supply of hydrogen starts to run out in the core of the star, where fusion is taking place, the core of the star starts to contract as gravity starts to "win". This contraction causes the core to heat up, which is slightly counter-intuitive, I know, but true nevertheless -- gravitational potential energy is being converted into heat. The hotter core means that the star actually releases more energy, so while the core of the star contracts, the outer layers actually expand. This is the red giant phase. If the star is massive enough, the core will actually get hot enough to initiate Helium burning, which requires a much higher temperature than Hydrogen burning. It's not clear if the Sun is massive enough for this... if Helium burning doesn't start, the core will continue to contract and "blow away" the outer layers of the star, which will first create a planetary nebula before becoming a white dwarf. If the star IS massive enough, it will find a new hydrostatic equilibrium, hot enough to maintain Helium burning. It's true that there is less energy released from Helium burning than from Hydrogen burning -- and the star is hotter besides, releasing more energy, so the Helium burning state ultimately has a much shorter lifetime than the Hydrogen burning state. Once the Helium starts to run out, the core starts to contract and heat again. Only very massive stars can begin to burn the Carbon, Oxygen, and Nitrogen "ashes" left over from Helium burning... otherwise, planetary nebula/white dwarf. This burning can continue through Silicon and all the way to Iron... however, any attempt to "fuse" Iron leads to a net loss in energy, rather than a gain, so that's it. Stars that get Iron in their cores ultimately collapse into neutron stars or black holes with a bang -- supernova.



The problem is that it requires much higher temperatures to initiate and maintain helium burning. When the energy generation from Hydrogen burning starts
Quoting Skyepony:
With the last front everyone I know that had nosebleeds regular during the deepwater spill had one. Day after all that heavy chaff we tracked the night before on radar. Looked around. Modis missed the gulf that one day.. Wings of care was last out there end of Dec saw plenty of sheen, they & others say spraying with dispersant is ongoing. In Nov BP & some clean up boats went to check out natural seeps in the area that have been leaking heavy since Aug..

There was also out in the last day or two that the dispersant that was applied at the wellhead hasn't much mixed in or broken down like expected. Still sitting in underwater plumes of oil.
Speaking of: did you see the news this week that verifies that BP knew on the day of the blowout that up to 3.4 million gallons a day could be flowing, yet they instead chose to tell everyone the most that could possibly flow was 42,000 GPD? Apparently the company's own people knew what was happening, yet numerous emails show that BP execs forbid them to tell anyone.

Nice.

I remember some on here claiming that it sure looked like a lot more than 42,000 gallons, while others would respond by asking, in apparent sincerity, what good it would do for BP to lie about the flow rate.

Of course, it's no shock at all that an oil company would lie--after all, they've been doing it for decades where climate change is concerned-- just as it's no shock that some in the government would be complicit in that lie. But as a Gulf Coast resident, it does disturb me. Deeply. Even now when I see those touchy-feely TV ads paid for by BP that show various GC tourism pushers telling people to come on down, I laugh, and then I cringe, and then I cry. :-\
280. MahFL
Goodmorning all, I just figured out why my coffee cup was not working, the air hole was blocked with gunge....
Quoting islander101010:
feds are reevaluating properties here in e cen fl. concerning flood insurance wonder if they take into consideration that e cen fl. has not one landfalling major hurricane acc to the records bet not.


Feds may be reevaluating E Central FL properties because of impending sea level rise and hurricanes may be a minor consideration. Just because the dolts in Congress don't support the idea of climate change and its ramifications doesn't mean other Federal agencies aren't moving ahead. The Navy has been raising the heights of piers in Norfolk. Some of the most interesting reading on the subject has come from military and security conferences on the effects of climate change. Two examples from "security and climate change" google.

Link

Link

Quoting TampaSpin:



That is the NEW WeatherUnderGround way. Lets this site become a forum for Kids. NICE JOB!!!!

If you don't like the way this site is going, you have two options. 1.) You put whomever you don't like on your ignore list or 2.) The door is to the right...it's always open.

I'm sick of people complaining about bloggers' ages, it gets really old.
good morning...
We could have our first Hybrid or STS (Alberto) Next week in the C Gulf. This appears like may orginate from a wave in the Eastern Pacific. Very interesting!!

12 Day GFS precip totals. Looks as if the SE US is heading into a wet pattern which is great as it's been dry this winter across the SE US especially FL.

This area here is going to get drenched the next few days.


From RSOE EDIS:

A North Sea oil field was closed down after a leak was discovered in a pipeline. The Foinaven field, nearly 120 miles west of Shetland, was closed down after the "small" leak was discovered early on Sunday. The leak, of an oil and water mix, was discovered by a remotely-operated vehicle carrying out routine checks at the BP owned field at around 1.30am. The field was immediately shut down and the leak was stopped within an hour. A company spokesman said it was not yet possible to calculate how much oil had leaked or how long it had been escaping for. He said: "BP has since carried out comprehensive checks of the area, at the source and on the surface, and can confirm that no oil is visible and that there is no evidence of ongoing pollution. "Production remains shut down. An investigation into the cause of the incident will be carried out by BP." Coastguard, police, the Health and Safety Executive and the Department of Energy and Climate Change have all been notified.

"An investigation of the incident will be carried out by BP." Now where have I heard that before? Oh, yeah. Sure gives me a warm and fuzzy feeling.
0Z run of the GFS has the low further south.


Quoting Xeloi:


I actually feel that I am qualified to comment on this one -- I have a PhD in Astrophysics.

Just because the energy density is lower doesn't really mean much. A "living" star is always in a state known as "hydrostatic equilibrium" -- the radiation pressure from nuclear fusion and the gas pressure from the hot plasma pushing outwards is balanced by the gravitational pressure pushing downwards. When the supply of hydrogen starts to run out in the core of the star, where fusion is taking place, the core of the star starts to contract as gravity starts to "win". This contraction causes the core to heat up, which is slightly counter-intuitive, I know, but true nevertheless -- gravitational potential energy is being converted into heat. The hotter core means that the star actually releases more energy, so while the core of the star contracts, the outer layers actually expand. This is the red giant phase. If the star is massive enough, the core will actually get hot enough to initiate Helium burning, which requires a much higher temperature than Hydrogen burning. It's not clear if the Sun is massive enough for this... if Helium burning doesn't start, the core will continue to contract and "blow away" the outer layers of the star, which will first create a planetary nebula before becoming a white dwarf. If the star IS massive enough, it will find a new hydrostatic equilibrium, hot enough to maintain Helium burning. It's true that there is less energy released from Helium burning than from Hydrogen burning -- and the star is hotter besides, releasing more energy, so the Helium burning state ultimately has a much shorter lifetime than the Hydrogen burning state. Once the Helium starts to run out, the core starts to contract and heat again. Only very massive stars can begin to burn the Carbon, Oxygen, and Nitrogen "ashes" left over from Helium burning... otherwise, planetary nebula/white dwarf. This burning can continue through Silicon and all the way to Iron... however, any attempt to "fuse" Iron leads to a net loss in energy, rather than a gain, so that's it. Stars that get Iron in their cores ultimately collapse into neutron stars or black holes with a bang -- supernova.



The problem is that it requires much higher temperatures to initiate and maintain helium burning. When the energy generation from Hydrogen burning starts


Ah, an astrophysicist, great. Excellent explanation.

I have to ask to make sure I don't make the mistake again.

Does the hydrogen burning in the outer layers of the star also act to increase the physical size of the star as I stated in #245 or am I out in another universe with that explanation? Thanks.
Quoting percylives:
From RSOE EDIS:

A North Sea oil field was closed down after a leak was discovered in a pipeline. The Foinaven field, nearly 120 miles west of Shetland, was closed down after the "small" leak was discovered early on Sunday. The leak, of an oil and water mix, was discovered by a remotely-operated vehicle carrying out routine checks at the BP owned field at around 1.30am. The field was immediately shut down and the leak was stopped within an hour. A company spokesman said it was not yet possible to calculate how much oil had leaked or how long it had been escaping for. He said: "BP has since carried out comprehensive checks of the area, at the source and on the surface, and can confirm that no oil is visible and that there is no evidence of ongoing pollution. "Production remains shut down. An investigation into the cause of the incident will be carried out by BP." Coastguard, police, the Health and Safety Executive and the Department of Energy and Climate Change have all been notified.

"An investigation of the incident will be carried out by BP." Now where have I heard that before? Oh, yeah. Sure gives me a warm and fuzzy feeling.
For sure. At this point, if BP puts out a press release stating that fire is hot, you'd do well to check for yourself before accepting their word on it. :-\
RE:288


Look at all of that arctic air coming to meet it!
To add to/update the numbers Dr. Masters included in his blog entry:

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
144 PM AKST MON JAN 30 2012


...RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES BROKEN IN INTERIOR ALASKA...

A FRIGID ARCTIC AIRMASS WHICH HAS GRASPED NORTHERN ALASKA FOR
MUCH OF JANUARY RESULTED IN SOME RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES OVER THE
WEEKEND. READINGS BETWEEN 40 AND 55 BELOW ZERO WERE WIDESPREAD
ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERIOR WITH SOME LOCATIONS PLUMMETING TO 60
BELOW AND COLDER.

BELOW ARE DAILY RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES BROKEN OVER THE WEEKEND:

GALENA............SATURDAY....-63 (OLD RECORD -58 IN 1989)
SUNDAY......-65 (OLD RECORD -56 IN 1947)

BETTLES...........SATURDAY....-60 (OLD RECORD -56 1989)
SUNDAY......-60 (OLD RECORD -58 1989)


OTHER LOW TEMPERATURES OBSERVED OVER THE WEEKEND (NOT RECORDS):

FORT YUKON COOPERATIVE OBSERVATION...............-66
KANDIK RIVER COOPERATIVE OBSERVATION.............-64
HUSLIA........................................... -63
TANANA........................................... -61
CLEAR SKY LODGE..................................-60
MANLEY HOT SPRINGS...............................-60
NORTH POLE (WOODSMOKE)...........................-60
CHICKEN.......................................... -59
EAGLE............................................ -57
NORTH POLE (KJNP)................................-57
GOLDSTREAM VALLEY BOTTOM.........................-55
NENANA........................................... -54
FAIRBANKS AIRPORT................................-51

$$
EP/RT

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Also, as noted last evening in comment #181, there was no official statewide record cold reading at the Jim River station:

This from NWS in Fairbanks:

NOAK49 PAFG 302352
PNSAFG
AKZ219-222-311200-

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
252 PM AKST MON JAN 30 2012

...CLARIFICATION OF TEMPERATURES FROM JIM RIVER DOT CAMP...

TEMPERATURES THIS PAST WEEKEND AT THE ALASKA DEPARTMENT OF
TRANSPORTATION JIM RIVER MAINTENANCE CAMP AT MILE 138 DALTON
HIGHWAY...STATION JMTA2...HAVE BEEN REPORTED AS LOW AS 79 BELOW.

THE TEMPERATURES ARE NOT CORRECT. THE WEATHER STATION IN USE AT
THE JIM RIVER DOT CAMP IS A PERSONAL WEATHER STATION THAT IS NOT
RATED FOR TEMPERATURE COLDER THAN 40 BELOW. THE UNREALISTICALLY
LOW TEMPERATURES ARE BELIEVED TO BE A FUNCTION OF THE BATTERY
FAILING AT VERY LOW TEMPERATURES.

THERE ARE NO OFFICIAL...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STANDARD...
TEMPERATURE MEASUREMENTS AT JIM RIVER DOT CAMP.

$$
RT/JL JAN 12
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #8
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07F
0:00 AM FST February 1 2012
======================================

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression 07F (997 hPa) located at 15.2S 167.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as moving east at 10 knots. Position fair based on multisatellite infrared imagery with animation and peripheral surface observation.

Organization has improved slightly in the past 06 hours. Deep convection near the system center has increased in the last 12 hours with cloud tops cooling. System lies under an upper diffluent region and to the east of an upper trough. Depression lies in a region of moderate shear and is being steered to the southeast by a deep layer mean northwesterly wind flow. Sea surface temperature is around 29-30C

Dvorak analysis based on 0.3 wrap. DT= 2.0, MET and PT agrees. Final Dvorak based on DT.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0/2.0/D0.5/24 hrs.

Global models are gradually intensifying the system and moving it southeastwards.

Potential for this system to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 24 to 48 hours is moderate to high.
Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin
TROPICAL CYCLONE IGGY, CATEGORY ONE (11U)
9:00 PM WST January 31 2012
=================================

At 8:00 PM WST, Tropical Cyclone Iggy, Category One (984 hPa) located at 23.9S 108.3E or 640 km west southwest of Exmouth and 555 km west northwest of Carnarvon has 10 minute sustained winds of 45 knots with gusts of 65 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south southwest at 12 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/3.0/S0.0/24 HRS

Gale Force Winds
--------------------
100 NM from the center in northeastern quadrant
60 NM from the center in northwestern quadrant
120 NM from the center in southeastern quadrant
90 NM from the center in southwestern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
======================

12 HRS: 26.1S 107.7E - 40 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS: 28.0S 108.5E - 35 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS: 29.0S 111.7E - 30 knots (TROPICAL LOW)
72 HRS: 28.5S 116.0E - 25 knots (TROPICAL LOW)

Additional Information
=======================

TC Iggy was located by microwave and visible imagery which show a symmetric system under low vertical wind shear. Intensity of 45 knots based on 0134UTC ASCAT pass showing region of 40 knots on eastern flank. Current SSE motion has increased to 12 knots which will support some enhancement of winds on eastern side. Dvorak FT maintained at 3.0 based on adjusted MET although IR eye pattern gives DT as high as 4.0 [DG surround, LG/OW elongated eye] which would support a higher FT. Cloud tops have warmed on recent images indicative of weakening convection as the system moves over cooler water. SATCON is 59 knots [1min mean] biased towards AMSU estimates of 63 kn although FOV=3.

Imagery suggest drier air to the south and west however the core of the cyclone should remain protected until an increased shear increases. Interaction with a passing mid latitude trough to the south should provide a period of enhanced outflow on the southern side and may encourage regeneration of some convection overnight during the diurnally favorable period.

During Wednesday Iggy is expected to weaken as it moves over cooler water and shear gradually increases. However marginal gales may extend into 24-36 hours forecast period, as suggested by various numerical weather prediction, albeit limited to sectors assisted by synoptic southeasterlies south of the system and then on northern side as the system takes a more southeast track.

Models show good agreement on the track, initially to the SSW for the next 12-18 hours and then with the majority taking the remnant system towards the west coast on Thursday. With a passing mid-latitude trough to the south on Wednesday the steering is toward the east at all levels except 850hPa.

The next tropical cyclone advice from Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center on TC IGGY will be issued at 19:30 PM UTC..
RSMC Reunion
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
15:00 PM RET January 31 2012
==================================

Extra-Tropical Depression 08 - Ex-FUNSO:
===========================================
At 09Z :
Position : 35.7S 51.6E
Movement East southeast at 4 kt.
Maximum winds 20 kt, up to 30kt in the southeastern semi-circle due the gradient effect with the subtropical high pressure (cf. ASCAT data at 04.59Z).

Ex-FUNSO is forecast to fill up by the middle of the week and to track slowly eastward.

Area of disturbed weather over the Mozambique Channel:
================================================= ==

Last animated satellite pictures show a low level circulation exposed East of the convective cluster
located near 21.0S 42.6E at 09Z. This small low hugs the west coast of Malagasy. It tracked at about
11kt southward during the past 12 hours. mean sea level pressure is estimated at 1003 hPa. Maximum winds are estimated at 20 knots.

Associated convective activity is fluctuating, with a moderate convective activity located in the eastern part of the channel between 19.0S and 27.0S. Available numerical weather prediction models outcomes at 00:00 AM UTCZ analyze this low close without developing it significantly. For the next few days, this low is forecast to track south-westward on the northern face of the subtropical ridge, without significant deepening. Indeed the lower levels supply remain marginal on the two sides of the low and the low is forecast to undergo a moderate Easterly vertical wind shear, on the northern edge of the upper level anticyclone.

There is no other suspect area over the basin.

For the next 72 hours, potential for development of a tropical depression is poor.
Death toll from European cold spell hits 58: Temps expected to plunge to minus 20 F
Quoting Xeloi:


I actually feel that I am qualified to comment on this one -- I have a PhD in Astrophysics.

Just because the energy density is lower doesn't really mean much. A "living" star is always in a state known as "hydrostatic equilibrium" -- the radiation pressure from nuclear fusion and the gas pressure from the hot plasma pushing outwards is balanced by the gravitational pressure pushing downwards. When the supply of hydrogen starts to run out in the core of the star, where fusion is taking place, the core of the star starts to contract as gravity starts to "win". This contraction causes the core to heat up, which is slightly counter-intuitive, I know, but true nevertheless -- gravitational potential energy is being converted into heat. The hotter core means that the star actually releases more energy, so while the core of the star contracts, the outer layers actually expand. This is the red giant phase. If the star is massive enough, the core will actually get hot enough to initiate Helium burning, which requires a much higher temperature than Hydrogen burning. It's not clear if the Sun is massive enough for this... if Helium burning doesn't start, the core will continue to contract and "blow away" the outer layers of the star, which will first create a planetary nebula before becoming a white dwarf. If the star IS massive enough, it will find a new hydrostatic equilibrium, hot enough to maintain Helium burning. It's true that there is less energy released from Helium burning than from Hydrogen burning -- and the star is hotter besides, releasing more energy, so the Helium burning state ultimately has a much shorter lifetime than the Hydrogen burning state. Once the Helium starts to run out, the core starts to contract and heat again. Only very massive stars can begin to burn the Carbon, Oxygen, and Nitrogen "ashes" left over from Helium burning... otherwise, planetary nebula/white dwarf. This burning can continue through Silicon and all the way to Iron... however, any attempt to "fuse" Iron leads to a net loss in energy, rather than a gain, so that's it. Stars that get Iron in their cores ultimately collapse into neutron stars or black holes with a bang -- supernova.



The problem is that it requires much higher temperatures to initiate and maintain helium burning. When the energy generation from Hydrogen burning starts


I know all that, but that's all model and theory.


Nobody has ever been inside a Star to actually measure the composition and say, "Oh yeah, there's exactly this much hydrogen, exactly that much helium, exactly that much Carbon, etc," plus it would really vary for every star anyway.

The compositions we know for the Sun are for the photosphere, and even there the Sun already has heavier elements, nearly a percent of nitrogen and Carbon, with some Oxygen and Iron present too.

The sun's emission spectra is caused by the photosphere, and has virtually nothing to do with the internal dynamics.

So basicly, everything we "know" about the Sun comes from the photosphere, and the rest is just mathematics that anyone with a calculator could do, but based on theory and assumptions that can't actually be tested, because any instrument sent to the Sun to actually take a sample of the core, or observe reactions would be destroyed.

Anyone could say, "Well, this is how much energy is made by the P-P chain, and this is how much we know the sun makes, some um, divide moles by the net energy and you get what amount of Hydrogen is being fused per second, etc."

But that's operating under the assumption that the core is actually fusing hydrogen.

Since nobody has been there, nobody actually knows.

The center is already 20 times as dense as iron, so it could be anything. It could already be lead or neutronium or some other exotic state of matter.



Stellar fusion was proposed as a theory to explain how the stars could live for long life times, since it was recognized that chemistry was not sufficient.


But to take the "age" of stars and then cite that as a proof or evidence of the exact nature of reactions in a star then becomes circular reasoning.

i.e.

A) How do stars burn so long?

Well, they work on Fusion.

B) How do you know they are doing fusion?

Well, because they burn so long.


Sorry, that might work in what passes for modern physics, but it's ridiculous.


Believe it or not, there actually are other reactions energy sources known in the universe which could maintain the Sun's output for hundreds or even thousands of times longer than fusion.

anti-matter
Zero Point
Alternate Dimensions
Wormholes
White Holes

One or more or any number of these may or may not exist in the core of Stars, and we'd have no way to prove or disprove their existence, because all our instruments would be destroyed before they can get close enough to take a deep enough sample.

Even with the law of parsimony, the White Hole possibility is no more complicated than the standard model. Heck it's actually simpler.


Take the White Hole, the idea of the reverse of a black hole, and think about it.

How would you prove that a White Hole is actually a White Hole over human time scales of one life span, and assuming it has an apparent mass equal to the Sun and an luminosity equal to the Sun? It need not be a runaway white hole, it could be in equilibrium, or it could even be dying, but you wouldn't know any of that initially. So how would you prove it is or is not?

How would you prove where the energy comes from, and how would you prove what types of matter and energy should or should not come out of a white hole? Will it be random matter and energy of all types? Or will it be the simplest forms of matter: almost pure hydrogen and Helium, like the composition of the Sun's photosphere.



Do you see how thinking outside the box exposes just how little is actually known in the standard model, and just how much is assumed?

Well, we assume it's hydrogen fusion because, well, what else would it be?

100 years later, we still dont understand cosmology at all. We've got a jillion competing and conflicting observations and theories: dark matter, dark energy, branes, MOND, Quintessence, parallel universes, 10 to 26 dimensions of space-time...and now I think they're up to "Multiple Multi-verses".

The funny thing is, this is supposedly "science" and yet almost none of it is falsifiable. It's practically religion.
Texas town relying on tanker trucks for water
Wells nearly run dry amid drought
Quoting Neapolitan:
For sure. At this point, if BP puts out a press release stating that fire is hot, you'd do well to check for yourself before accepting their word on it. :-\


Yopu got that right, I stopped believing anything they had to say even before the oil spill in the GOM, when you learn that B.P.'s "Lord" John Browne helped devise the carbon credit scheme with Enron and that convicted felon Jeff Skilling's motto was %u201C<"We are a green company, but the green stands for money back in the late 90s with the help of their friend in the W.H. Al Gore and his personal fortune he accumulated mostly through communist sympathizer Armand Hammer's Occidental Petroleum and filthy zinc mines, now embraces "sustainable capitalism" and that Kyoto was an excuse for the likes of Ken Lay of Enron to set up an Emissions Trading System, http://www.masterresource.org/2011/12/remembering -green-enron-part-ii-corporate-social-responsibili ty/
and that all of the Big % major mult-national oil companies either are for a global carbon tax (Exxon-Mobile, Conoco Phillips, BP, and Chevron) {Conoco and BP have since dropped their support for a cap-and-trade scheme} and now are for a global carbon tax, (Queen Beatrix's (a literal welfare queen)Royal Dutch Shell is still for an Emissions trading pozi scheme), then the pieces of the puzzle start to come together.
Just had a nice Cinnamon n Raisin biscut from hardees.....YUM.

Be round to chat in few mins, got some schewl to do:)
Quoting SPLbeater:
Just had a nice Cinnamon n Raisin biscut from hardees.....YUM.

Be round to chat in few mins, got some schewl to do:)


What kind of job you think you'll have when you are a grown up?
Quoting Skyepony:
Texas town relying on tanker trucks for water
Wells nearly run dry amid drought
I posted this yesterday, this is not too far from my house. It is amazing that just around Austin and southward and eastward we have received over 10 inches of rain the past 2 or 3 months which has helped big time but areas not very far west of Austin have received little rain during this time and not much rain the past 17 months. The difference in 30 to 50 miles can be huge when it comes to rain, I do know the areas west of Austin are much dryer than areas east.
Quoting SPLbeater:
Just had a nice Cinnamon n Raisin biscut from hardees.....YUM.

Be round to chat in few mins, got some schewl to do:)


How's homeschooling anyways?

I was home schooled for a bit a year ago, but it wasn't long enough to evaluate the social downsides. Also, it wasn't my parents who taught me. A teacher came to my house because I couldn't go to school. I remember that month or so of homeschooling as one of the worst and best moments of my life, and I am who I am today because of that experience.
GOM IR Loop

..click image for Loop






Quoting bohonkweatherman:
I posted this yesterday, this is not too far from my house. It is amazing that just around Austin and southward and eastward we have received over 10 inches of rain the past 2 or 3 months which has helped big time but areas not very far west of Austin have received little rain during this time and not much rain the past 17 months. The difference in 30 to 50 miles can be huge when it comes to rain, I do know the areas west of Austin are much dryer than areas east.

Drought May Cause Shutdown of Texas Rice Production

Although recent rains have put a dent in the Texas drought, a day of reckoning looms for the state’s long-grain rice growers, who pump millions into the economy in Southeast Texas each year and account for about 5 percent of America’s rice production. Come March 1, if there is less than 850,000 acre-feet of water in reservoirs along the Lower Colorado River, water managers will be forced to take the unprecedented step of withholding water from agricultural users, which will mean severe cuts to Texas rice production this year.

According to Bob Rose, chief meteorologist with the Lower Colorado River Authority (LCRA), it’s unlikely that enough rain will fall between now and March 1 to reach the 850,000 acre-feet threshold that was established by a recent agreement between the authority and the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality. An acre-foot is the amount of water required to cover one acre of land to a depth of one foot, and it amounts to about 326,000 gallons.

As of January 30, the highland lakes that serve as the area’s reservoirs held about 758,000 acre-feet.

"This is going to be a huge, huge deal," Rose said during a presentation at the annual meeting of the American Meteorological Society in New Orleans. "What’s going to happen is that there will be no water for agriculture in Texas this year."

Driving the Lower Colorado River Authority’s decision-making is the need to ensure there is enough water to meet the demand from Austin, the rapidly growing state capital that is completely reliant on water from the Lower Colorado River, as well as other municipalities and users, such as electric utilities that need water to run power plants.


Full article here.
Now..Iggy looks nice:)
Quoting RitaEvac:


What kind of job you think you'll have when you are a grown up?


ok if this is a question concernin my grammar and spelling, not ansering lol. i dont spell corect cuz im layed back. but i CAN spell and put proper grammar.


Meteorlologist...maybe Storm chaser:) i hope
Quoting yqt1001:


How's homeschooling anyways?

I was home schooled for a bit a year ago, but it wasn't long enough to evaluate the social downsides. Also, it wasn't my parents who taught me. A teacher came to my house because I couldn't go to school. I remember that month or so of homeschooling as one of the worst and best moments of my life, and I am who I am today because of that experience.


my homeschool is on my computer, and doenst take long on regular days. got a playlist of bout 75 pop songs i listen to while working.
Quoting SPLbeater:


ok if this is a question concernin my grammar and spelling, not ansering lol. i dont spell corect cuz im layed back. but i CAN spell and put proper grammar.


Meteorlologist...maybe Storm chaser:) i hope
311. Xeloi
Quoting percylives:


Ah, an astrophysicist, great. Excellent explanation.

I have to ask to make sure I don't make the mistake again.

Does the hydrogen burning in the outer layers of the star also act to increase the physical size of the star as I stated in #245 or am I out in another universe with that explanation? Thanks.


You never get Hydrogen burning in the outer layers of stars. It's possible that you can get a thin layer of hydrogen burning just outside the core of a helium burning star, which does make some small contribution to the total energy output of the star, and thus its size. This is known as the "shell burning" stage -- I kind of skipped it in my earlier explanation for brevity. In fact, stars that are creating iron in their cores can have multiple shells where different fusion processes are occurring -- think an onion.
Quoting RitaEvac:



.lol .taht od ot gniog erew uoy wenk I
Quoting SPLbeater:


my homeschool is on my computer, and doenst take long on regular days. got a playlist of bout 75 pop songs i listen to while working.


Damn, that is the life. Would love to do that, oh well, only 2 more years of high school anyways. :P
Quoting RTSplayer:


I know all that, but that's all model and theory.


Nobody has ever been inside a Star to actually measure the composition and say, "Oh yeah, there's exactly this much hydrogen, exactly that much helium, exactly that much Carbon, etc," plus it would really vary for every star anyway.

The compositions we know for the Sun are for the photosphere, and even there the Sun already has heavier elements, nearly a percent of nitrogen and Carbon, with some Oxygen and Iron present too.

The sun's emission spectra is caused by the photosphere, and has virtually nothing to do with the internal dynamics.

So basicly, everything we "know" about the Sun comes from the photosphere, and the rest is just mathematics that anyone with a calculator could do, but based on theory and assumptions that can't actually be tested, because any instrument sent to the Sun to actually take a sample of the core, or observe reactions would be destroyed.

Anyone could say, "Well, this is how much energy is made by the P-P chain, and this is how much we know the sun makes, some um, divide moles by the net energy and you get what amount of Hydrogen is being fused per second, etc."

But that's operating under the assumption that the core is actually fusing hydrogen.

Since nobody has been there, nobody actually knows.

The center is already 20 times as dense as iron, so it could be anything. It could already be lead or neutronium or some other exotic state of matter.



Stellar fusion was proposed as a theory to explain how the stars could live for long life times, since it was recognized that chemistry was not sufficient.


But to take the "age" of stars and then cite that as a proof or evidence of the exact nature of reactions in a star then becomes circular reasoning.

i.e.

A) How do stars burn so long?

Well, they work on Fusion.

B) How do you know they are doing fusion?

Well, because they burn so long.


Sorry, that might work in what passes for modern physics, but it's ridiculous.


Believe it or not, there actually are other reactions energy sources known in the universe which could maintain the Sun's output for hundreds or even thousands of times longer than fusion.

anti-matter
Zero Point
Alternate Dimensions
Wormholes
White Holes

One or more or any number of these may or may not exist in the core of Stars, and we'd have no way to prove or disprove their existence, because all our instruments would be destroyed before they can get close enough to take a deep enough sample.

Even with the law of parsimony, the White Hole possibility is no more complicated than the standard model. Heck it's actually simpler.


Take the White Hole, the idea of the reverse of a black hole, and think about it.

How would you prove that a White Hole is actually a White Hole over human time scales of one life span, and assuming it has an apparent mass equal to the Sun and an luminosity equal to the Sun? It need not be a runaway white hole, it could be in equilibrium, or it could even be dying, but you wouldn't know any of that initially. So how would you prove it is or is not?

How would you prove where the energy comes from, and how would you prove what types of matter and energy should or should not come out of a white hole? Will it be random matter and energy of all types? Or will it be the simplest forms of matter: almost pure hydrogen and Helium, like the composition of the Sun's photosphere.



Do you see how thinking outside the box exposes just how little is actually known in the standard model, and just how much is assumed?

Well, we assume it's hydrogen fusion because, well, what else would it be?

100 years later, we still dont understand cosmology at all. We've got a jillion competing and conflicting observations and theories: dark matter, dark energy, branes, MOND, Quintessence, parallel universes, 10 to 26 dimensions of space-time...and now I think they're up to "Multiple Multi-verses".

The funny thing is, this is supposedly "science" and yet almost none of it is falsifiable. It's practically religion.


LOL, you're calling his whole profession ridiculous? I think I'm gonna roll with the dude that has the doctorate in astrophysics on this one.
Quoting yqt1001:


Damn, that is the life. Would love to do that, oh well, only 2 more years of high school anyways. :P


lol. i have seen high school, and im glad im not part of all those teens...few of them i saw SMOKING. pants saggin, all that mess, lol.

The only bad thing about bein homeschooled is i dont ave any friends..
316. Xeloi
Quoting RTSplayer:


I know all that, but that's all model and theory.


Nobody has ever been inside a Star to actually measure the composition and say, "Oh yeah, there's exactly this much hydrogen, exactly that much helium, exactly that much Carbon, etc," plus it would really vary for every star anyway.

The compositions we know for the Sun are for the photosphere, and even there the Sun already has heavier elements, nearly a percent of nitrogen and Carbon, with some Oxygen and Iron present too.

The sun's emission spectra is caused by the photosphere, and has virtually nothing to do with the internal dynamics.

So basicly, everything we "know" about the Sun comes from the photosphere, and the rest is just mathematics that anyone with a calculator could do, but based on theory and assumptions that can't actually be tested, because any instrument sent to the Sun to actually take a sample of the core, or observe reactions would be destroyed.

Anyone could say, "Well, this is how much energy is made by the P-P chain, and this is how much we know the sun makes, some um, divide moles by the net energy and you get what amount of Hydrogen is being fused per second, etc."

But that's operating under the assumption that the core is actually fusing hydrogen.

Since nobody has been there, nobody actually knows.

The center is already 20 times as dense as iron, so it could be anything. It could already be lead or neutronium or some other exotic state of matter.



Stellar fusion was proposed as a theory to explain how the stars could live for long life times, since it was recognized that chemistry was not sufficient.


But to take the "age" of stars and then cite that as a proof or evidence of the exact nature of reactions in a star then becomes circular reasoning.

i.e.

A) How do stars burn so long?

Well, they work on Fusion.

B) How do you know they are doing fusion?

Well, because they burn so long.


Sorry, that might work in what passes for modern physics, but it's ridiculous.


Believe it or not, there actually are other reactions energy sources known in the universe which could maintain the Sun's output for hundreds or even thousands of times longer than fusion.

anti-matter
Zero Point
Alternate Dimensions
Wormholes
White Holes

One or more or any number of these may or may not exist in the core of Stars, and we'd have no way to prove or disprove their existence, because all our instruments would be destroyed before they can get close enough to take a deep enough sample.

Even with the law of parsimony, the White Hole possibility is no more complicated than the standard model. Heck it's actually simpler.


Take the White Hole, the idea of the reverse of a black hole, and think about it.

How would you prove that a White Hole is actually a White Hole over human time scales of one life span, and assuming it has an apparent mass equal to the Sun and an luminosity equal to the Sun? It need not be a runaway white hole, it could be in equilibrium, or it could even be dying, but you wouldn't know any of that initially. So how would you prove it is or is not?

How would you prove where the energy comes from, and how would you prove what types of matter and energy should or should not come out of a white hole? Will it be random matter and energy of all types? Or will it be the simplest forms of matter: almost pure hydrogen and Helium, like the composition of the Sun's photosphere.



Do you see how thinking outside the box exposes just how little is actually known in the standard model, and just how much is assumed?

Well, we assume it's hydrogen fusion because, well, what else would it be?

100 years later, we still dont understand cosmology at all. We've got a jillion competing and conflicting observations and theories: dark matter, dark energy, branes, MOND, Quintessence, parallel universes, 10 to 26 dimensions of space-time...and now I think they're up to "Multiple Multi-verses".

The funny thing is, this is supposedly "science" and yet almost none of it is falsifiable. It's practically religion.


I have a few bones to pick with this. First of all, asteroseismology allows us to look into the center of stars, so we have a really good idea of what is going on in the interior of stars. They have done tests of hydrogen fusion both in laboratories and with nuclear weapons -- the processes and energy output are exactly as predicted. Moreover, if there were significant amounts of exotic materials on their, we would see them. We don't. If there were powerful, exotic methods of producing energy -- and there probably are, I'm not denying that -- but if they fueled stars, it would violate Ockham's Razor: if you have a simple explanation that seems to work (nuclear fusion), that's probably what is going on. Without additional observations that break the current theory, there's no reason to invoke anything more exotic.

Furthermore, the universe is full of things call global clusters. A global cluster is a dense cluster of stars where almost all the stars formed at about the same time. Therefore, what we see when we look at an individual star cluster is a snapshot in time of the lifetime of a star. By looking at many global clusters -- we know of thousands -- it's fairly trivial to reconstruct the life cycle of stars. Stars are created, they age, and they die. If stars lived as long as you postulated..... we wouldn't see them die!

The white hole explanation you provide doesn't really work. Why would we never see a naked white hole? Why does large amount of matter collect in white holes? IF they are giving off energy, you would expect matter to be forced away, without ever collecting. Do white holes only form where density is high enough? I suppose it's possible.... but then where do neutron stars come from? White dwarfs? Supernova? For a "model" to become accepted, it has to explain all observed phenomena. White holes don't. Fusion does. It may still not be right, so I can't say Q.E.D., but it's pretty damned airtight.

I'm as open-minded an astrophysicist as you'll ever encounter, with a strong familiarity with the philosophy of science, so I understand the concerns you are expressing and able to overlook your aggression. I too hate all this dark matter and dark energy and X number of collapsed dimensions. I personally detest this "science"... but rather than just complaining loudly, I'm actually looking into trying to construct an alternative... which might be a better use of your energy than ranting/trolling :).
Do more than smoking son, it's where boys become men and girls become women....
Quoting Xeloi:


You never get Hydrogen burning in the outer layers of stars. It's possible that you can get a thin layer of hydrogen burning just outside the core of a helium burning star, which does make some small contribution to the total energy output of the star, and thus its size. This is known as the "shell burning" stage -- I kind of skipped it in my earlier explanation for brevity. In fact, stars that are creating iron in their cores can have multiple shells where different fusion processes are occurring -- think an onion.


Hey, at least you mentioned that, at least theoretically.

I couldn't even get a physicist to admit that much in the past.


I'll leave it alone for the fact it's a weather forum and all, its just cosmology is filled with a lot of people making the fallacy of mixing up theory with facts, and then citing one theory as "proof" of another theory, etc.
Quoting RitaEvac:
Do more than smoking son, it's where boys become men and girls become women....


smoking is not healthy.
Quoting SPLbeater:


smoking is not healthy.


Studies show that living is not healthy.

[/joke about how studies say that everything is unhealthy]

Now yes, smoking is not healthy, and I do not wish to take part in it. But I believe he was implying something else.
Quoting BeCoolOrBeCastOut:


LOL, you're calling his whole profession ridiculous? I think I'm gonna roll with the dude that has the doctorate in astrophysics on this one.
We all (humans) have an innate desire to believe in something, be it science(observation based on our physical senses) or spiritual, and/or a combination of the two... Personally, I believe that God created the universe and stuck the Earth with humans on it in the middle of it, so that humans would be surrounded by a creation that is so mind boggling that we couldn't help but acknowledge that He exists and that He's way much smarter and powerful than anything in creation. Most of us on the blog really appreciate the intricacies of the weather and we still only have a limited understanding of all the influences that go into that. Let alone the inner workings of a star?!
Man's quest for knowledge can be noble and continues to be necessary to solve the challenges we face on this planet. But I believe that the most important quest for all of us is to know the Creator of all things knowable. -imho
Quoting BeCoolOrBeCastOut:


LOL, you're calling his whole profession ridiculous? I think I'm gonna roll with the dude that has the doctorate in astrophysics on this one.


No, no.

I think you missed the point entirely.

I wasn't making fun of anyone's profession.

Even professionals become blinded by the framework in which they exist. Look at wall street and the economists who were doing all the wrong things 4 or 5 years ago, and so forth. They all had degrees in economics, but they helped wreck the system.

Ok, just take Steve Jobs and Apple.

Why didn't some guy with a degree make Apple?

Why didn't some guy with a degree make Facebook?

It's called paradigm:

Entire fields of endeavour just stuck in a regime and completely failing to realize the real nature of the world around them, as well as the real applications of existing knowledge.

Steve Jobs was like, "Hey everyone else, stay here and do the same old crap if you like, I'll go start the next era in human history."

All the guys with degrees were too busy being yes men, or taking tests or writing their thesis, so that they could not be bothered with inventing the next revolution: Blind.
Quoting JNCali:
We all (humans) have an innate desire to believe in something, be it science(observation based on our physical senses) or spiritual, and/or a combination of the two... Personally, I believe that God created the universe and stuck the Earth with humans on it in the middle of it, so that humans would be surrounded by a creation that is so mind boggling that we couldn't help but acknowledge that He exists and that He's way much smarter and powerful than anything in creation. Most of us on the blog really appreciate the intricacies of the weather and we still only have a limited understanding of all the influences that go into that. Let alone the inner workings of a star?!
Man's quest for knowledge can be noble and continues to be necessary to solve the challenges we face on this planet. But I believe that the most important quest for all of us is to know the Creator of all things knowable. -imho
You are certainly entitled to your own belief, but what you stated is far too close to that of the ignorant ancients who simply ascribed a supernatural cause to everything they saw and experienced because they lacked the scientific knowledge to figure it out. Thunder was an angry god muttering; rain was the god crying; famine was the god's punishment; and so on. No, looking at something intricate and complex in the natural world and saying, "I don't understand it, so it must be The Great Being In The Sky who did it" isn't a type of logic with which I'm comfortable. ;-)
Quoting Neapolitan:
You are certainly entitled to your own belief, but what you stated is far too close to that of the ignorant ancients who simply ascribed a supernatural cause to everything they saw and experienced because they lacked the scientific knowledge to figure it out. Thunder was an angry god muttering; rain was the god crying; famine was the god's punishment; and so on. No, looking at something intricate and complex in the natural world and saying, "I don't understand it, so it must be The Great Being In The Sky who did it" isn't a type of logic with which I'm comfortable. ;-)
Lol..You sound like a grouchy old curmudgeon Nea..But your post is true..Back then, if they did not understand an act or event of nature, it must have been something supernatural or a God. It is however possible all things happen and exist because of God or a form of super-intelligence...I think it was Ovid that said" Man creates Gods by the dozen, but cannot even make a worm..:)
Quoting Neapolitan:
You are certainly entitled to your own belief, but what you stated is far too close to that of the ignorant ancients who simply ascribed a supernatural cause to everything they saw and experienced because they lacked the scientific knowledge to figure it out. Thunder was an angry god muttering; rain was the god crying; famine was the god's punishment; and so on. No, looking at something intricate and complex in the natural world and saying, "I don't understand it, so it must be The Great Being In The Sky who did it" isn't a type of logic with which I'm comfortable. ;-)


Ontology and Physics are two different things.

The Biblical philosophy was supposed to be that God's work was evident in creation. That creation pointed to God. It was never meant to be an excuse to stop critical thinking.

What I'm looking for from physics is a matrix of laws and principles that is actually consistent from top to bottom, without circular reasoning.

The existing paradigm does not accomplish that in the least.

326. Xeloi
Quoting RTSplayer:


Hey, at least you mentioned that, at least theoretically.

I couldn't even get a physicist to admit that much in the past.


I'll leave it alone for the fact it's a weather forum and all, its just cosmology is filled with a lot of people making the fallacy of mixing up theory with facts, and then citing one theory as "proof" of another theory, etc.


I am very willing to believe that cosmology is a mess right now. There are many astrophysicists working both within the current paradigm and outside it, trying to find a more palatable solution, all the while we gather more and more observations. At some point, some person probably far more clever than me will crack it and we can move on. And I say this being well-acquainted with one of the people who won the Nobel prize this time around for dark energy.
TRMM pass of 92S, click pic to play.




Quoting SPLbeater:


lol.

The only bad thing about bein homeschooled is i dont ave any friends..


Join or start a co-op, look on Yahoo. There's over 700 families in one of our local homeschool online groups. Somewhere around 20% of kids in Brevard County are homeschooled. People post what is going on & where everyone is meeting up~ parks, skating, Ripley's Believe it or Not. Go, find friends & learn. Saw Arc Attack this morning. Part of a group of shows that are put on at the local college performance center. The county has been busing public school kids to all of the half dozen shows so far this year but they weren't there today. Really informative & fun show on electricity. The only reason I can think they were missing was that part on Tesla & the Tesla Coil. They don't teach about Tesla in the public schools here anymore, he's completely left out.
Winds got this controlled burn at KSC stoked up.

Published: January 31st, 2012 at 12:20 AM EDT |By Enenews Admin

Report: “High level radiation cloud” detected passing over New Zealand city — Peaks reached an “incredible” 1.89 microSv/h

Source: Peter Daley
Date: 29th January 2012

I have been in contact with a person In New Zealand who just sent me information of a detection of a high level radiation cloud passing over Dunedin New Zealand. You will find a copy of his email correspondence below. This chart is the recorded background radiation level during this event. Visual observation saw peaks reach an incredible 1.89 uS/Hr !

Read complete report.....[...] Link




Link

Published: January 31st, 2012 at 09:43 AM EDT By Enenews
Rare quake hits near troubled Illinois nuke plant releasing radioactive steam — “That’s right, she said earthquake” (VIDEO)

Title: Magnitude 2.4 – ILLINOIS
Source: USGS
Date: January 30, 2012 at 09:54:43 PM
Location: 42.340°N, 88.243°W

Title: Earthquake rattles northern suburbs, parts of Wis.
Source: ABC 7
Date: Jan 31, 2012 at 07:50 AM CT

If you live in the north or northwest suburbs and felt the ground move Monday night, you were not dreaming. A small earthquake centered near northwest suburban McHenry hit just before 10 p.m.

According to the U.S. Geological Survey’s (USGS) National Earthquake Information Center, the 2.4-magnitude earthquake hit at 9:54 p.m. about two miles east of McHenry, Ill.

The earthquake was given an intensity rating of 3, which means it was weak. Still, more than 300 people reported on the USGS website that they felt it.

Experts say the earthquake was felt from southeast Wisconsin to northern Illinois to northwest Indiana. [...]