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Billion-Dollar Flood Has Louisiana Reeling; 98L May Become a Tropical Depression

By: Bob Henson and Jeff Masters 4:19 PM GMT on August 15, 2016

Floodwaters have finally crested across most of southern Louisiana after a harrowing weekend of record-high water that left at least six people dead, pushed at least 10,000 people into shelters, and prompted the rescues of more than 20,000 people. The federal government has declared the event a major disaster in four parishes: Tangipahoa, St. Helena, East Baton Rouge and Livingston. According to the insurance broker Aon Benfield, “The major flood and thunderstorm event that impacted parts of Louisiana, Texas, and Arkansas during March 2016 caused roughly USD1.5 billion in economic damage. It is currently anticipated that the August 2016 event will approach and possibly exceed this cost once all damage incurred to homes, businesses, public facilities, vehicles, infrastructure, and agriculture is taken into account.”


Figure 1. In this aerial photo over Hammond, La., flooded homes are seen off of LA-1064 after heavy rains inundated the region, Saturday, Aug. 13, 2016. (AP Photo/Max Becherer)

Multi-day rainfall of 10” to 20”, produced by a very slow-moving low pressure center, covered a large swath of south-central and southeast Louisiana (see Figure 2 below). Bands of heavy rain also extended northeastward as far as Ohio along a preexisting frontal boundary, as moisture was funneled northward from the Gulf Coast low. (Parts of the St. Louis area received 4” to 6” of rain on Sunday night.) The storm system carried near-record amounts of atmospheric moisture, drawn from the Gulf of Mexico and northwest Atlantic, where sea-surface temperatures are well above average. Climate change has already been shown to increase the amounts of rain falling in the most intense events across many parts of the world, and extreme rainfall events like this week's Louisiana storm are expected to grow increasingly common in the coming years.


Figure 2. Rainfall amounts analyzed by data from multiple sensors for the week extending from 12Z (8:00 am) Monday, August 8, 2016, to 12Z Monday, August 15. Most of the rain in Louisiana has fallen since Thursday, August 11. Image credit: NOAA/NWS Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service.


Figure 3. Some parts of Louisiana recorded more than 20" of rain in 48 hours, which qualifies as a 1-in-1,000 year rainfall event. In other words, an event of this magnitude has a 0.1 percent chance of occurring at a particular location in any given year. Image credit: NWS Lower Mississippi River Forecast Center.

The numbers
Some local rainfall totals during this event were truly astounding, as catalogued in a NOAA/NWS precipitation summary issued on Monday morning. The top multiday amounts observed in each state through 10 am EDT Monday, August 15, include:

Watson, LA: 31.39”
Gloster, MS: 22.84”
Panama City Beach, FL: 14.43”
Ellsinore, MO: 12.10”
Gloster, AL: 9.94”
Tomball, TX: 8.82”
Makanda, IL: 8.05”
Vincennes, IN: 5.52”
Pocahontas, AR: 5.44”

Flooding over the weekend was most intense across the southeast corner of Louisiana, especially the region east of Baton Rouge and north of Lake Ponchartrain. Among the all-time record crests observed on Sunday:

Amite River at Denham Springs: 46.2’ (old record 41.5’ on April 8, 1983)
Comite River at Comite Joor Rd.: 34.22’ (old record 30.99’ on June 9, 2001)
Tickfaw River at Holden: 22.16’ (old record 21.04’ on April 7, 1983)
Tangipahoa River at Robert: 27.33’ (old record 27.10’ on March 14, 1921)

The previous record crests shown above are a telltale sign that most of the biggest flood events in southeastern Louisiana occur following large-scale winter and spring rainfall events rather than landfalling tropical cyclones. The latter typically (but not always) come and go more quickly, dumping heavy rain but not persisting long enough to cause widespread river flooding.

An odd-duck storm with tropical-cyclone-like impacts
The low pressure center that generated the past week of torrential rain along the Gulf Coast was a strange one indeed. Because surface winds were light and the surface low stayed generally onshore (see embedded video at bottom), the system was never declared a tropical cyclone by the National Hurricane Center. At the same time, for much of its life the storm was a symmetric warm-core low, the same type of structure associated with tropical cyclones. Regardless of its classification, the storm behaved much like other tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes that have taken their time moving through the Gulf Coast region. Two analogs that come to mind for the past week’s events are:

Figure 4. Analysis of total rainfall amounts (in inches) produced in Louisiana from the August 1940 hurricane. The hurricane’s path is indicated by the arrow. Image credit: David Roth, “Louisiana Hurricane History,” NOAA.


Hurricane 2 (unnamed), August 1940: Also called the 1940 Louisiana hurricane, this compact cyclone (hurricane-force winds extended just ten miles from its center) stayed just off the central Gulf Coast for most of its lifespan, intensifying as it nudged toward the coast of southwest Louisiana and coming ashore at Sabine Pass, TX, with top sustained winds of 100 mph. The hurricane’s slow motion both offshore and onshore resulted in mammoth, widespread rains, making it the wettest tropical cyclone in Louisiana history. The town of Crowley reported a storm total of 33.71”, including 19.76” in 24 hours. Almost 2 million acres of land reportedly went underwater by at least a foot. Six lives were lost, and damages totaled $9 million (1940 dollars), according to a NOAA report.

Tropical Storm Allison, June 2001: Allison moved onto the Texas coast as a tropical storm, then made a languid loop through the eastern part of the state over several days, depositing colossal amounts of rain. Houston was the hardest-hit metro area, as more than 70,000 homes and hundreds of businesses were flooded, including much of the Texas Medical Center, leaving the city virutally paralyzed for days. The port of Houston received a storm total of 36.99” of rain, with many other reports of 20” to 38” across Harris County. Allison caused 41 direct and 14 indirect fatalities, with damages totalling $9 billion (2001 dollars).


Figure 5. MODIS visible satellite image of 98L south of the Cabo Verde Islands taken on Monday morning, August 15, 2016. The brownish colors to the north of the disturbance are due to a large region of African dust. Image credit: NASA.

African tropical wave may develop late this week
A strong tropical wave located a few hundred miles south of the Cabo Verde Islands is headed west-northwest at 15 mph, and has the potential to develop into a tropical depression late this week. This disturbance was designated Invest 98L on Sunday evening by NHC. Satellite loops on Monday morning showed 98L had a modest area of heavy thunderstorms which had acquired a moderate amount of spin. Wind shear was light to moderate, 5 - 15 knots, and sea surface temperatures (SSTs) were warm enough for development--27.5°C (82°F), which was about 1°C (1.8°F) above average. Water vapor satellite imagery showed that 98L was mostly in a moist environment, with the dry air from the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) along the northern side of the disturbance. These conditions are generally favorable for development.

Forecast for 98L
Steering currents favor a west-northwesterly to northwesterly motion at about 15 mph for 98L this week, which will likely take the system too far to the north for it to be a long-range threat to the Lesser Antilles Islands. The 8 am EDT Monday run of the SHIPS model showed moderately favorable conditions for development through Thursday, with wind shear in the light to moderate range, 5 - 15 knots, a moist atmosphere, and SSTs near 26.5 - 27.5°C (80 - 82°F.) Working against development of 98L will be the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), a pattern of increased thunderstorm activity near the Equator that moves around the globe in 30 - 60 days. The active portion of the MJO is currently located in the Western Pacific, which leads to increased typhoon activity in the Northwest Pacific, but compensating sinking air and surface high pressure over the tropical Atlantic, with reduced chances of tropical cyclone development there.

The Monday morning operational runs of our three reliable models for predicting tropical cyclone genesis, the European, GFS and UKMET models, had two of the three--the European and GFS--showing development of 98L. The 00Z Monday runs of the GFS and European model ensemble forecasts, done by taking the operational high-resolution version of the model and running it at lower resolution with slight perturbations to the initial conditions in order to generate a range of possible outcomes, had more than 50% of their ensemble members predict that 98L would become a tropical depression. In their 8 am EDT Monday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 98L 2-day and 5-day development odds of 20% and 30%, respectively. Should 98L become a tropical storm, the next name on the Atlantic list is Fiona.

What's next?
We’re not particularly concerned about 98L's potential to cause trouble, since atmospheric steering currents are currently expected to take the storm far enough to the north that it will have difficulty making the long crossing to North America without recurvature. However, the next wave to come off the coast of Africa--due to emerge on Thursday--is likely to experience steering currents that will keep it farther to the south, on a course that could potentially bring it into the Caribbean by the middle of next week. We are now entering the peak part of hurricane season, and tropical waves like this one can become dangerous hurricanes that do not recurve harmlessly out to sea if atmospheric conditions come into alignment.


Figure 6. Danielle Blount kisses her 3-month-old baby Ember as she feeds her while they wait to be evacuated by members of the Louisiana Army National Guard near Walker, La., after heavy rains inundating the region, Sunday, Aug. 14, 2016. (AP Photo/Max Becherer)

Louisiana disaster survivors with disabilities need your support after historic flooding
The Portlight.org disaster relief charity, founded and staffed by members of the wunderground community, is responding to this week's devastating floods in Louisiana. The disaster is particularly troublesome for a state that is still in recovery from major flooding just last March, and many resources are completely depleted because of the March flooding. That storm left more than 5,000 homes damaged or destroyed and cost $1.5 billion across a three-state area. This week's flooding may end up being even more costly, according to insurance broker Aon Benfield. There is an urgent need for durable and consumable medical supplies as well as housing. Portlight will be working with the American Red Cross, local stakeholder organizations, and federal partners to respond to this historic flooding event. Your support is needed to make this happen! Please consider making a donation to Portlight's disaster relief fund at the portlight.org website to further their reach and response in the state of Louisiana. Thank you for any support you can offer!

Bob Henson and Jeff Masters





Hurricane Flood

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Pressures are high in the Gulf, nothing there so far, but could be something to watch. There is a ton of energy in the Gulf, NW Caribbean and near the Bahamas right now.
Quoting 444. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Upstairs it is very moist in the Eastern half of the U.S. Meanwhile, drier air moving towards CaribBoy.




Yes, indeed :((((
Quoting 488. MoneyHurricane:

Quite a lot of dry air from the SAL to the north of 98L. Shouldn't impact it too much though.




I'd like to see a loop from a few days ago to present.
Quoting 430. Grothar:




I'd call that a concensus. For those who want this in the Caribbean there would have to be one heck of a dramatic change in course.
Weren't 1998 and 2010 used as analog years for this year?
Quoting 501. Hurricanes101:

Pressures are high in the Gulf, nothing there so far, but could be something to watch. There is a ton of energy in the Gulf, NW Caribbean and near the Bahamas right now.


One do you mean by a ton of energy?
Quoting 504. Bucsboltsfan:



I'd call that a concensus. For those who want this in the Caribbean there would have to be one heck of a dramatic change in course.


Yea there is a reason the models are seeing this. I could see it turning back west afterwards, but only as a threat to Bermuda. The next 2 systems coming off though could both be headed much further south and west.
Quoting 419. Grothar:

Future 99L will not disappoint.


what do you mean by that?
Quoting 506. Bucsboltsfan:



One do you mean by a ton of energy?


A lot of moisture.
Quoting 501. Hurricanes101:

Pressures are high in the Gulf, nothing there so far, but could be something to watch. There is a ton of energy in the Gulf, NW Caribbean and near the Bahamas right now.


this area could pull a snake on us and be come some in 1st we need too see how that area looks in the AM this area may be 99L 1st
511. beell
Per the GFS, One of the strongest TUTT's of the season forming up and backing into the Gulf and extending out into the sub-tropical Atlantic. Plenty of upper support ADDED: in the Gulf for convection. Ultimately, some higher shear in the works (TUTT axis represented by black dashed line).

Quoting 505. Hurricanes101:

Weren't 1998 and 2010 used as analog years for this year?


1998 for sure (CSU anyway).
Quoting 476. N3EG:

Good news everyone! The Louisiana storm has been downgraded to a 1000 year event. So if you want to go back to the last time there was a disaster of this magnitude, you have to go way back, all the way to 2005.
Not this again - another commenter who doesn't understand what a Flood Recurrence Interval means. The fact that you only have to go back to 2005 to see the last 1000 year event, gives even more credence to the fact that a new climate of extreme flooding is taking hold - just as the vast majority of climate scientists have been forecasting for years. "The Flood with No Name" may be a chilling harbinger of a future where floods of similar magnitude become so common they don't even get named.
model runs for 98L are not set in stone


same thing happen with hurricane IKE in the same area it was 1st forecast to go out too sea but the model runs bend back W and they hit N TX area
Quoting 457. lobdelse81:

Same old, same old story: it seems like storms/hurricanes that make it into the Caribbean tended to continue west and bury themselves into Mexico, while those that are north of the Antilles head north and then out to sea. This seems to be the common theme since 2009.


Yea because the 8 feet of water I had in my house in October of 2012 was just a normal event. Waves break on my front porch and cars float down my street at least once a week.
Quoting 492. SLU:

Philip Klotzbach ‏@philklotzbach 9h9 hours ago Moraga, CA
Only 2 typhoons have formed in NW Pacific so far in 2016-only 2 yrs since 1950 have had <=2 thru 8/15 (1998 & 2010)


Very interesting. These are also the years that rival the AMO index for this year and they both blew up from late August to October. They are also years that followed El Nino events. Maybe that's a hint at a potentially explosive season this year.
'98 had two very nasty and deadly hurricanes, Georges and the deadliest hurricane in recored history in Mitch. '10 had Earl, Igor, and Tomas, which led to a deadly cholera outbreak in Haiti.
517. SLU
Quoting 494. washingtonian115:

Both those years are also using the same name list that we are using this year.It's a conspiracy I tell ya!.....lol


Lol. Yes it is. Those years also produced some of the most spectacular hurricanes in decades. Eg. Mitch, Georges, Igor.
518. beell
Quoting 503. win1gamegiantsplease:



I'd like to see a loop from a few days ago to present.


Link

Quoting 491. Kyon5:

This is why the current models need to be taken with a grain of salt. The stage will likely be set for it to find that weakness, but it depends on how strong 98L gets. It's also unclear where the LLC is, which is why the center estimates have been all over the place as it is with these disorganized systems. Given the uncertainty, we'll have to see what it does for the next couple of days before calling it a fish. This is only the beginning, though. There will be many more to come and hopefully no damage is done.
The Journey or Journies are just starting. Today is only just Monday, we got the whole rest of the week to see what happens with 98L and future 99L and more.
Off topic:
Just woke up to say that
Shaunae Miller
of The Bahamas
just won the gold medal in the 400 metres at the Olympics. ....

Quite satisfactory.
Quoting 511. beell:

Per the GFS, One of the strongest TUTT's of the season forming up and backing into the Gulf and extending out into the sub-tropical Atlantic. Plenty of upper support for convection. Ultimately, some higher shear in the works (TUTT axis represented by black dashed line).


Shear bliss. Get out the anti cyclone Fiona.
Quoting 492. SLU:

Philip Klotzbach ‏@philklotzbach 9h9 hours ago Moraga, CA
Only 2 typhoons have formed in NW Pacific so far in 2016-only 2 yrs since 1950 have had <=2 thru 8/15 (1998 & 2010)


Very interesting. These are also the years that rival the AMO index for this year and they both blew up from late August to October. They are also years that followed El Nino events. Maybe that's a hint at a potentially explosive season this year.


Watch out for late Sep-Oct. Way out in the future, but if you used an average return of the MJO in the Atlantic, it would return near the secondary peak. We've also had fairly active Octobers lately, wonder if the weather patterns become similar, haven't seen a long-range forecast in a second.
Quoting 518. beell:



Link




Thank you very much. UW-Madison has some great tools.
Quoting 507. Hurricanes101:



Yea there is a reason the models are seeing this. I could see it turning back west afterwards, but only as a threat to Bermuda. The next 2 systems coming off though could both be headed much further south and west.


For me it's too early to completely count out Fl all the way northward. Could always bend back later but it sure seems like its going northward.
Quoting 521. BahaHurican:

Off topic:
Just woke up to say that
Shaunae Miller
of The Bahamas
just won the gold medal in the 400 metres at the Olympics. ....

Quite satisfactory.


Nice. Bolt was amazing last night.
Quoting 455. thetwilightzone:

at lest 98L is not speeding like earl was


its moving at 17mph earl was moving near to that speed at about the same location
LLC of 98L near 8N/35W

Quoting 524. stormpetrol:


Quoting 528. wunderkidcayman:



its moving at 17mph earl was moving near to that speed at about the same location


Earl (was not Earl at this point) was moving between 25-30mph at this location
Quoting 525. win1gamegiantsplease:



Thank you very much. UW-Madison has some great tools.
Here is another one I use College of DuPage for satellite animation to monitor how the sea breeze boundaries unfold in Florida. They also have access to Numerical Forecast Model Products such as, the GFS, ECMWF, and HRRR.
Quoting 528. wunderkidcayman:



its moving at 17mph earl was moving near to that speed at about the same location
Earl was moving more like 25.... don't think Earl went below 20kts until it got to the Antilles ....
Quoting 528. wunderkidcayman:



its moving at 17mph earl was moving near to that speed at about the same location


Invest 97L didn't exist where this 98L is right now 97L was earl and didn't become a invest at this point
Quoting 534. BahaHurican:

Earl was moving more like 25.... don't think Earl went below 20kts until it got to the Antilles ....



Earl was moving at 27 MPH

GOM looks full of moisture.
18z GFS 78 hrs. PWAT shows 98L in a nice moisture envelope. Also, shows surface - 400 mb. mean flow.

Quoting 538. Gearsts:



JMA for some reason never develops anything...lol

Is this why the GFS doesn't develop the wave behind?

Quoting 540. HurricaneFan:


JMA for some reason never develops anything...lol


That area of Vort near the islands is a TC on this model.
Quoting 527. Bucsboltsfan:



Nice. Bolt was amazing last night.


Bolt bias... :)
At 700 mb. 98L and the next wave show up well.

Quoting 531. Hurricanes101:



Earl (was not Earl at this point) was moving between 25-30mph at this location


nah Earl didn't start moving that quick till it neared 31/35W
infact earl never reached 30 until it was near 51W
Quoting 529. stormpetrol:br
Quoting 454. JrWeathermanFL:



A lot worse than having a Horse With No Name..

Bet they feel good to get out of the rain in Louisiana
Quoting 537. 999Ai2016:


GOM looks full of moisture.


Yeah it is we keep getting strong downpours coming out of the gulf
Quoting 535. James1981cane:



Invest 97L didn't exist where this 98L is right now 97L was earl and didn't become a invest at this point


Earl started out as an invest at about 28W so yeah buts is only off by about what 3 degrees
Quoting 532. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Here is another one I use College of DuPage for satellite animation to monitor how the sea breeze boundaries unfold in Florida. They also have access to Numerical Forecast Model Products such as, the GFS, ECMWF, and HRRR.


I like this one as well.
Quoting 547. HurricaneFan:




Looking good i would wait till tomorrow should become a tropical depression tomorrow night into wendesday
Quoting 549. wunderkidcayman:



Earl started out as an invest at about 28W so yeah buts is only off by about what 3 degrees


Yeah but anyways lets forget about Earl its the past
Quoting 544. GTstormChaserCaleb:

At 700 mb. 98L and the next wave show up well.





I would give the developement chances a lower 40 for 2 days 80 for 5 days
Quoting 552. James1981cane:



Looking good i would wait till tomorrow should become a tropical depression tomorrow night into wendesday

Agreed. This still has a little ways to go. I think it should become a TD by Wednesday evening, though. It may take a while to strengthen, though, if it manages to reach TS status.
Quoting 549. wunderkidcayman:



Earl started out as an invest at about 28W so yeah buts is only off by about what 3 degrees


It was 35W lol

AL, 05, 2016072818, , BEST, 0, 132N, 351W, 20, 1011, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 150, 70, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 010, SPAWNINVEST, al722016 to al972016,
AL, 05, 2016072718, , BEST, 0, 126N, 289W, 15, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS010, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 010,
98L will feel the weakness in the ridge around 45W and eventually re-curve.
Quoting 462. Hurricanes101:



you must have missed Irene and Isaac, which obviously did not do either of those things.
Neither did Joaquin.
560. beell
Quoting 557. wunderkidcayman:

AL, 05, 2016072718, , BEST, 0, 126N, 289W, 15, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS010, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 010,



That's more or less where the northern end of the wave axis (98L) is located (12.6N) and where the greatest 700 mb vorticity should be found
Quoting 551. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Test


Wow showing storms sucked out to sea what model is that.
Quoting 558. scott39:

98L will feel the weakness in the ridge around 45W and eventually re-curve.


I doubt that
Quoting 558. scott39:

98L will feel the weakness in the ridge around 45W and eventually re-curve.
Think it'll be more like 55W before it starts to recurve, but ... we shall see.
565. beell
Quoting 564. BahaHurican:

Think it'll be more like 55W before it starts to recurve, but ... we shall see.


I think "It" is at 12N already. But...I realize this is a contrarian opinion!
Quoting 563. wunderkidcayman:



I doubt that
Pretty clear where it will go.
Quoting 565. beell:



I think "It" is at 12N already. But...I realize this is a contrarian opinion!




Quoting 565. beell:



I think "It" is at 12N already. But...I realize this is a contrarian opinion!
Haven't actually looked at any loops for the last couple hours, so you could be right .... would imply both a somewhat better organization and a beginning of the separation process???
Quoting 566. Gearsts:

Pretty clear where it will go.

I don't see how 98L could go all the way to the Caymans unless something dramatic happens in the pattern.
Quoting 567. SavannahStorm:








I'm going with the Spinal Tap 11 myself
Quoting 566. Gearsts:

Pretty clear where it will go.

But when? Thursday? or Saturday? It's Tuesday and that low is still malingering over TX ...
572. beell
Quoting 568. BahaHurican:

Haven't actually looked at any loops for the last couple hours, so you could be right .... would imply both a somewhat better organization and a beginning of the separation process???


I wish we had better loops!
Quoting 569. washingtonian115:

I don't see how 98L could go all the way to the Caymans unless something dramatic happens in the pattern.


I don't remember seeing this gap several days ago. Models pick up on things later as they get more data, and also maybe others had similar runs showing this outcome and I overlooked them :/

Welp, good night. Thoughts go to those in Louisiana and nearby affected areas.
A partial ASCAT pass from a few hours ago showed some distinct easterlies not much north of 10*N near 27*W. It's certainly worth noting that this is at the far eastern edge of the convection at the time too.



Looks like the 00z GFS is latching on more to the westward movement.
Quoting 576. washingtonian115:



lol, every time the GFS runs, I always think it's going to drop the storm. It didn't though. However, a trend I have noticed is it is slightly weaker on the 00z than 18z.
Quoting 569. washingtonian115:

I don't see how 98L could go all the way to the Caymans unless something dramatic happens in the pattern.


I didn't say anything about cayman or the Caribbean so shove off ok
Something to note. There is a big area of cold subtropical water in the NE Atlantic. This can make it harder for TC's to get going in the Atlantic.
Quoting 561. help4u:

Wow showing storms sucked out to sea what model is that.

GFS
Quoting 579. wunderkidcayman:



I didn't say anything about cayman or the Caribbean so shove off ok


You don't change WKC. You don't change...
You get all defensive very quickly so it must be true.Everyone here knows it and I'm not responding to you anymore.GFS has a decent T.S north of the Cape verde islands
584. JRRP7
behind 98L
Quoting 584. JRRP7:

behind 98L



I'm still hoping lol
Quoting 585. Barefootontherocks:

Create your own banner at mybannermaker.com!


I've had feelings all year that Hermine is going to be the strong one. It's never been a hurricane before.
Quoting 582. CaribBoy:



You don't change WKC. You don't change...


your one to talk

if its not a cat 5 heading towards you the storm is crap

Quoting 583. washingtonian115:

You get all defensive very quickly so it must be true.Everyone here knows it and I'm not responding to you anymore.GFS has a decent T.S north of the Cape verde islands



im not defensive I am angry
im sick of you and the few others that go on with this bullcrap
that is all
Big mess behind.
Quoting 585. Barefootontherocks:

Create your own banner at mybannermaker.com!

LOL, I like the banner and gosh you have the cutest doggie avatar.
The GFS has Fiona as the lone wolf in town
593. JRRP7
Quoting 586. CaribBoy:



I'm still hoping lol

nahh... GFS kills it lol
IMO the 00z GFS has been much more realistic than the 18z with the intensity of "Fiona." The 18z run had it close to hurricane strength in just 6 days, which doesn't seem very likely to me due to all the SAL, sinking air and cooler SSTs. The GFS has "Fiona" entering waters below 26 C which, in my opinion, doesn't seem very conductive for intensification. I think the ECMWF solution of a weak-moderate TS is more likely to be true.
Quoting 592. washingtonian115:

The GFS has Fiona as the lone wolf in town



GFS won't pick up on the other wave till it is designated a invest
Quoting 593. JRRP7:


nahh... GFS kills it lol
The GFS has latched on to 98L but it is not properly handling the energy from the other waves that follow in behind it,as it has low pressure gyres going on.We're going to have to wait until another invest designation is given in order for the model to "see" things.
598. JRRP7
Quoting 596. Gearsts:



yeah... the wave behind 98L
Quoting 589. wunderkidcayman:



your one to talk

if its not a cat 5 heading towards you the storm is crap



im not defensive I am angry
im sick of you and the few others that go on with this bullcrap
that is all


reported*
Quoting 589. wunderkidcayman:



your one to talk

if its not a cat 5 heading towards you the storm is crap



im not defensive I am angry
im sick of you and the few others that go on with this bullcrap
that is all


Please do not engage in personal attacks or bickering. Material not conforming to these standards should be flagged ignored.
Quoting 599. TheDeathStar:



reported*


umm no if anyone is to be reported its Wash
Quoting 600. TheDeathStar:



Please do not engage in personal attacks or bickering. Material not conforming to these standards should be flagged ignored.


umm im the one being attacked
anyway lets just wait and see what happens with 98L
Once again...the GFS intensifies "Fiona" to near hurricane strength late in its lifetime.
Quoting 596. Gearsts:




imo i don't think the models have a good handle yet with this system, if it does re curve it's going to be a lot closer to the islands.
608. JRRP7

The GFS develops the wave near 8e
Quoting 605. wunderkidcayman:

anyway lets just wait and see what happens with 98L
yeap, it's too early to be say where it will go until be have a closed low
Quoting 591. GTstormChaserCaleb:

LOL, I like the banner and gosh you have the cutest doggie avatar.
Thanks, Caleb. Kidding around some, but I am halfway serious about Hermine. Or, zelda, my psychic alter-ego, is.

(Ps. The dog's name is Hummer. She is a trip.)
Quoting 587. HurricaneFan:


I've had feelings all year that Hermine is going to be the strong one. It's never been a hurricane before.
Does make you wonder, doesn't it? As a TD, Hermine dumped a bunch of rain on me in OKla six years ago.

......
Good night, wusters. Be good.
Quoting 607. TheDeathStar:



imo i don't think the models have a good handle yet with this system, if it does re curve it's going to be a lot closer to the islands.
Quoting 608. JRRP7:


The GFS develops the wave near 8e
yeap, that could be a threat to the Caribbean
Quoting 611. Gearsts:


well, if it missed that opening, it might not recurve
Quoting 606. HurricaneFan:

Once again...the GFS intensifies "Fiona" to near hurricane strength late in its lifetime.



No that is the 10Mm pressure gradient it shows a weak to moderate tropical storm
Quoting 607. TheDeathStar:



imo i don't think the models have a good handle yet with this system, if it does re curve it's going to be a lot closer to the islands.


I do agree with that
Quoting 614. James1981cane:



No that is the 10Mm pressure gradient it shows a weak to moderate tropical storm

Not sure if I am correct or not, but I believe the 989 mbar is the surface pressure. This would likely be near hurricane strength if the surface pressure was 989 mbar.
Quoting 616. HurricaneFan:


Not sure if I am correct or not, but I believe the 989 mbar is the surface pressure. This would likely be near hurricane strength if the surface pressure was 989 mbar.
you are correct, a minimal hurricane
I learned a long time ago not to doubt the NHC.
But??, I have looked at the steering winds for 3 days, and I have a hard time believing this (98L) is going north anytime soon. I know I will be proved wrong, but??
Quoting 617. TheDeathStar:

you are correct, a minimal hurricane


Nope a tropical storm
Quoting 616. HurricaneFan:


Not sure if I am correct or not, but I believe the 989 mbar is the surface pressure. This would likely be near hurricane strength if the surface pressure was 989 mbar.


You are somewhat correct thats the surface pressure but usually meteoroligist go by the MSLP Anomaly
Quoting 619. James1981cane:



Nope a tropical storm
Quoting 618. swflurker:

I learned a long time ago not to doubt the NHC.
But??, I have looked at the steering winds for 3 days, and I have a hard time believing this (98L) is going north anytime soon. I know I will be proved wrong, but??
i trust the NHC, but this is not a tropical cyclone yet, i think once it develops a closed circulation it will be easier to track, but i agree with you, i don't see this going north until it nears the islands.
Latest NAVGEM has 98L hooking to the south of west at 54 hrs.
Quoting 583. washingtonian115:

You get all defensive very quickly so it must be true.Everyone here knows it and I'm not responding to you anymore.GFS has a decent T.S north of the Cape verde islands

You need to stop talking ABOUT him too. It's not necessary. And I went back and looked. He NEVER said a word about INTO the Caribbean. In fact, the only comment he made was to the effect that Caribboy might get a scare before the storm moved off to the north. Moreover, he's not the only one suggesting that the storm may not go north as quickly as models are currently suggesting. Why aren't you accusing those others of wishcasting, also?

You need to let it go. You make yourself look petty and mean, and that's not what my experience of you has been.
Dry air is also heading south so 98L may only survive heading west.
Quoting 621. James1981cane:



You are somewhat correct thats the surface pressure but usually meteoroligist go by the MSLP Anomaly


You got a survey to prove that assumption?
Quoting 625. BahaHurican:

You need to stop talking ABOUT him too. It's not necessary. And I went back and looked. He NEVER said a word about INTO the Caribbean. In fact, the only comment he made was to the effect that Caribboy might get a scare before the storm moved off to the north. Moreover, he's not the only one suggesting that the storm may not go north as quickly as models are currently suggesting. Why aren't you accusing those others of wishcasting, also?

You need to let it go. You make yourself look petty and mean, and that's not what my experience of you has been.


thank you
Quoting 589. wunderkidcayman:



your one to talk

if its not a cat 5 heading towards you the storm is crap



im not defensive I am angry
im sick of you and the few others that go on with this bullcrap
that is all
You also need to stop bobbing like a fish to the bait. If you know what's going to happen, why even respond?

I consider both you and Washington115 positive contributors to this blog. Both of you need to LET GO of the backbiting at each other; it demeans both of you.
I like gems in the comments.

Quoting 300. TropicalAnalystwx13:

The GFS continues to intensify 98L in the medium range, in disagreement with the ECMWF which instead degenerates the system thanks to mid-level dry air. Both solutions make sense depending on how well insulted 98L is in a few days.


98L is gonna be so insulted, it's going to pull a fake towards the north, turn and go due west, and go RI as it makes landfall on North Carolina.

INSULTED!!

:P
Baha be dishing out punishment.

*hides cookies that Astro stole from TA earlier*

:)
00Z CMC shifted South and West from last run also further South and West of the 00Z GFS run
Quoting 600. TheDeathStar:



Please do not engage in personal attacks or bickering. Material not conforming to these standards should be flagged ignored.
I hoped you flagged BOTH bickerers ....
Quoting 630. BahaHurican:

You also need to stop bobbing like a fish to the bait. If you know what's going to happen, why even respond?

I consider both you and Washington115 positive contributors to this blog. Both of you need to LET GO of the backbiting at each other; it demeans both of you.


ok but Wash started it

but ok

000
ABNT20 KNHC 160500
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT TUE AUG 16 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A large area of cloudiness and thunderstorms located about 450
miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands is associated with a
tropical wave. Environmental conditions are expected to be
conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to
form during the next few days while the system moves
west-northwestward to northwestward toward the central tropical
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent

$$
Forecaster Brown
Quoting 618. swflurker:

I learned a long time ago not to doubt the NHC.
But??, I have looked at the steering winds for 3 days, and I have a hard time believing this (98L) is going north anytime soon. I know I will be proved wrong, but??
I feel like doubting Thomas.... gotta see that turn first .... lol ...

I know it's possible, but not trusting that the gap will form that quickly. I also notice that a couple of models don't think it'll go all the way north that far east, but are bringing it closer to 60W [albeit much north of the islands] before slinging it up into the westerlies.

Quoting 632. Astrometeor:

Baha be dishing out punishment.

*hides cookies that Astro stole from TA earlier*

:)
Don't mean to be a grump, but somebody woke me up and now I can't get back to sleep. ... :o/
Quoting 636. HurricaneFan:


000
ABNT20 KNHC 160500
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT TUE AUG 16 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A large area of cloudiness and thunderstorms located about 450
miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands is associated with a
tropical wave. Environmental conditions are expected to be
conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to
form during the next few days while the system moves
west-northwestward to northwestward toward the central tropical
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent

$$
Forecaster Brown

Well, this looks promising ....
Quoting 638. BahaHurican:

Well, this looks promising ....

Yep, indeed. I'm confident we'll get Fiona out of this, but there is still a lot of uncertainty with its intensity and lifespan. I'm fairly confident it will be a fish storm, though, but it could trend a little farther west than the current models are showing. A Caribbean track with this storm is extremely unlikely with the current setup.
Quoting 637. BahaHurican:

I feel like doubting Thomas.... gotta see that turn first .... lol ...

I know it's possible, but not trusting that the gap will form that quickly. I also notice that a couple of models don't think it'll go all the way north that far east, but are bringing it closer to 60W [albeit much north of the islands] before slinging it up into the westerlies.

Don't mean to be a grump, but somebody woke me up and now I can't get back to sleep. ... :o/


You're not a grump. :) Stop looking at a bright white light, for one. That messes with your head/eyes.

I gotta go to sleep too. Stuff to do tomorrow.
641. JRRP7
Quoting 633. wunderkidcayman:

00Z CMC shifted South and West from last run also further South and West of the 00Z GFS run

i do not think so
642. JRRP7
Quoting 639. HurricaneFan:


Yep, indeed. I'm confident we'll get Fiona out of this, but there is still a lot of uncertainty with its intensity and lifespan. I'm fairly confident it will be a fish storm, though, but it could trend a little farther west than the current models are showing. A Caribbean track with this storm is extremely unlikely with the current setup.
I've been thinking a depression - maybe - by tomorrow night .... more likely by Wednesday a.m. .... After that there are a lot of possibilities, most of which depend on how quickly 98L strengthens and to a lesser extent on how quickly that low pressure system currently in the Mid - CONUS moves offshore....
98L is getting more and more organized convection wise and spin wise. Heavy thunderstorm activity is developing over the elongated surface circulation center and is getting better organized. I expect Fiona by 5pm this afternoon.
Quoting 642. JRRP7:


So ensembles are in two camps ....

I'm going to try to get back to sleep, now that I have ensemble support .... lol ....

Like Astro I have things to do in the a.m ....
Red alert. 60/70. Also notice that the talk of conditions becoming less favorable late this week has been removed.



ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT TUE AUG 16 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A large area of cloudiness and thunderstorms located about 450
miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands is associated with a
tropical wave. Environmental conditions are expected to be
conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to
form during the next few days while the system moves
west-northwestward to northwestward toward the central tropical
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent

Forecaster Brown
Quoting 643. BahaHurican:

I've been thinking a depression - maybe - by tomorrow night .... more likely by Wednesday a.m. .... After that there are a lot of possibilities, most of which depend on how quickly 98L strengthens and to a lesser extent on how quickly that low pressure system currently in the Mid - CONUS moves offshore....


Like i said tomorrow night it will become a named storm
The maximum intensity scale according to Dr. Kerry Emanuel for the Atlantic Ocean basin has water temperatures just below SNE ready to allow a category four hurricane to make landfall on NYC. The 26.5C line to sustain a tropical cyclone is above 40N latitude and near 70W longitude, that means the waters south of Long Island can sustain a hurricane making landfall. I think we will see a hurricane make landfall on the Eastern US states this season.
649. JRRP7
Quoting 645. BahaHurican:

So ensembles are in two camps ....

I'm going to try to get back to sleep, now that I have ensemble support .... lol ....

Like Astro I have things to do in the a.m ....

four camps
Quoting 627. Astrometeor:



You got a survey to prove that assumption?


yeah from personal experience i got a masters degree in atmospheric science
Likely this could become a cat 2 or 3 if it can slow down a little more looks promising but might be a smaller size system like danny
The wave axis appears to curl up by tomorrow so this should help this develop more
I think future Fiona can impact Bermuda. However, I wouldn't be surprised to see her threaten the East Coast either at some point before a good sized trough takes her out to sea, but I expect her to stay a westerly track until the NE lesser Antilles islands come close.
98L is already developing the eastern circulation center which remains elongated somewhat.
Quoting 653. TheDawnAwakening:

I think future Fiona can impact Bermuda. However, I wouldn't be surprised to see her threaten the East Coast either at some point before a good sized trough takes her out to sea, but I expect her to stay a westerly track until the NE lesser Antilles islands come close.


Most likely it won't happen the reason models don't take it west is because the ewave axis wraps up and tilts north causing a northward or northwestward motion which should begin soon but there still is a small chance the wave axixs might not tilt north but most models show this
GFS


CMC


CMC further South and West of GFS
Quoting 654. TheDawnAwakening:

98L is already developing the eastern circulation center which remains elongated somewhat.


Its Elongated but if you look at the 850MB vorticy you notice it is wraping up to the northwest of the elongated circulation should finish the process by tomorrow
Quoting 656. wunderkidcayman:

GFS


CMC


CMC further South and West of GFS


The last Euro also was more southwest of the GFs but i still think the wave axis will be tilted IMO
661. JRRP7
662. JRRP7
12z CMC

00z CMC

stronger but more north than 12z run
Nada on the second wave.
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
8:30 AM IST August 16 2016
=========================

The low pressure area over north Bay of Bengal & neighborhood now seen as well marked low pressure area over north West Bay of Bengal & neighborhood. The system is likely to concentrate into a depression by tomorrow.

A fresh low pressure area is likely to develop over northern Bay of Bengal & neighborhood around 20th.
Quoting 664. Gearsts:

Nada on the second wave.



Yeah i kinda figured the third wave will be interesting
India Meteorological Department
Satellite Description Bulletin
11:30 AM IST August 16 2016
===================

Vortex over Bay of Bengal and neighborhood still persists and is centered near 20.9N 90.0E

Dvorak Intensity: T1.0
Anyone up ?
Quoting 668. James1981cane:

Anyone up ?

I am.
While nowhere near as newsworthy as the downpours and flooding, the fact that this rain is producing a week plus period of much lower than normal temperatures throughout central Texas should get some attention, but it's getting none at all.

I'd love to know the patterns that can produce highs in the 70s to mid 80s for extended periods when normally we should be dealing with 100+ highs until Labor day.

It's the total lack of attention to weather phenomenon like this and as a result the complete lack of scientific explanation that is likely a big source of doubt regarding man made climate change especially in light of how much press is dedicated to using the current record rains to prove it.

By making no easy to find explanation for what's happening here, it makes it all too easy for those all too many conspiracy minded to believe that nothing is being reported as part of a coverup of proof against man made climate change.

Maybe they are worried that trying to explain far lower than normal summertime temperatures in a state like Texas with a reputation for searing Summer heat will be misunderstood no matter what. If so that's the wrong assumption to make, because it leaves people like me who want to know the facts with nothing to counter the doubters, and gives them card blanche to make up the details as they see fit.


In one week a strengthening tropical storm on the Euro.



At 240 hours a Hurricane out to sea, not seeing a third storm develop on the run.

Quoting 669. TROPICALCYCLONEALERT:


I am.
The GFS is liking development of the invest 98L and the third wave
GFS develops the third wave !!!!
98..big&disorganized
Might be overdone but this is what HWRF thinks about 98L in 4 days

677. beell
Quoting 670. JohnnyMorales:

While nowhere near as newsworthy as the downpours and flooding, the fact that this rain is producing a week plus period of much lower than normal temperatures throughout central Texas should get some attention, but it's getting none at all.

I'd love to know the patterns that can produce highs in the 70s to mid 80s for extended periods when normally we should be dealing with 100 highs until Labor day.

It's the total lack of attention to weather phenomenon like this and as a result the complete lack of scientific explanation that is likely a big source of doubt regarding man made climate change especially in light of how much press is dedicated to using the current record rains to prove it.

By making no easy to find explanation for what's happening here, it makes it all too easy for those all too many conspiracy minded to believe that nothing is being reported as part of a coverup of proof against man made climate change.

Maybe they are worried that trying to explain far lower than normal summertime temperatures in a state like Texas with a reputation for searing Summer heat will be misunderstood no matter what. If so that's the wrong assumption to make, because it leaves people like me who want to know the facts with nothing to counter the doubters, and gives them card blanche to make up the details as they see fit.





I'm inclined to believe clouds ADDED: and rain are responsible for lower temps across much of Texas. The rain in Louisiana is the story.


Surface vorticity looking better for 98L this morning
i dont see nothing to worry about
I have to say there is pretty strong agreement 98L will be Fiona lol

Quoting 680. WeatherkidJoe2323:

I have to say there is pretty strong agreement 98L will be Fiona lol




Yep Fiona will form most likely tonight
Quoting 678. WeatherkidJoe2323:

Surface vorticity looking better for 98L this morning


Yes and should continue to improve throughout the day
I think that the most dangerous thing for this system to do would be staying weak and disorganized for another 24 or so hours. If it stays weak, it is less likely to be drawn to the north by the weakening ridge.
Quoting 682. James1981cane:



Yes and should continue to improve throughout the day


I think so too
look at it this way. gfs = skunked too far away no waves canadian = e. coast surfers delight
686. beell

clickable
687. beell

98L
(click for larger image)
Third wave makes a run to the Bahamas then possibly Florida. 384 hours out. It will change.
Quoting 687. beell:


98L
(click for larger image)


While it looks disorganized overall, it's circulation has been steadily improving and convection continues to fire up in a uniform manner despite the large swath of dry air to the northwest of it. By tonight or tommorrow morning we should have a depression.
Quoting 686. beell:


clickable

That it is one large area of dry air to the North and Northwest of 98L, something it's going to fight most of it's early life span.
Looks like the ridge builds back in after Fiona. Third wave, West bound.
Quoting 648. TheDawnAwakening:

The maximum intensity scale according to Dr. Kerry Emanuel for the Atlantic Ocean basin has water temperatures just below SNE ready to allow a category four hurricane to make landfall on NYC. The 26.5C line to sustain a tropical cyclone is above 40N latitude and near 70W longitude, that means the waters south of Long Island can sustain a hurricane making landfall. I think we will see a hurricane make landfall on the Eastern US states this season.

Please not again, Sandy was too much
NHC increases chances to 70/80 for 98L
Pretty disappointed Euro dropped the 2nd wave after 6 consecutive runs. That 6z GFS run was probably an anomaly. From excited to frustrated and mad, that's what model runs do to you.
Quoting 696. wunderweatherman123:

Pretty disappointed Euro dropped the 2nd wave after 6 consecutive runs. That 6z GFS run was probably an anomaly. From excited to frustrated and mad, that's what model runs do to you.


Until a system becomes a named system, models are often unreliable.
The circulation with 98L has improved overnight. It's also interesting that it has been moving to the west of the forecast models.
Quoting 698. Drakoen:

The circulation with 98L has improved overnight. It's also interesting that it has been moving to the west of the forecast models.


Yeah when you look at the ensembles of both the GFS and CMC it is to the south of the tracks. It has been going due west all night. Even when looking at models from yesterday, which took it almost NW immediately. This has not happened. I guess 'she' does what she want.
700. Tcwx2
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT TUE AUG 16 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Satellite images indicate that the large area of cloudiness and
thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave centered about 500
miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands is gradually becoming
better organized. Conditions appear to be favorable for a tropical
depression to form during the next couple of days while the system
moves toward the west-northwest and then northwest toward the
open waters of the central Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

Forecaster Avila
Quoting 699. George1938:



Yeah when you look at the ensembles of both the GFS and CMC it is to the south of the tracks. It has been going due west all night. Even when looking at models from yesterday, which took it almost NW immediately. This has not happened. I guess 'she' does what she want.


Strong low level flow out of the ESE to the north of the system to keep it going west until the circulation develops more depth.
Quoting 695. WeatherkidJoe2323:

NHC increases chances to 70/80 for 98L
TD/TS Fiona getting closer and closer.
Quoting 702. Climate175:

TD/TS Fiona getting closer and closer.


Yes.. As much as the circulation has improved in the last 12 hours I say less than 24 hours before this is at least a depression, has to keep improving at all levels and sustain convection over the center.
Quoting 696. wunderweatherman123:

Pretty disappointed Euro dropped the 2nd wave after 6 consecutive runs. That 6z GFS run was probably an anomaly. From excited to frustrated and mad, that's what model runs do to you.
Let us wait for Pouch 21L to come and see if the NHC will tag it and make it an Invest, and see if it will get good data.
I know this may be too far out, but GFS has something near Florida at 384 hours.
Good Morning; here is the best guess on track per NHC and the models:






Quoting 705. birdsrock2016:

I know this may be too far out, but GFS has something near Florida at 384 hours.

Yea, that is from the third wave, one expected to come off Aug 21st, GFS has it staying weak and heading more westward and into the Western Atlantic, and Euro has it getting strong very fast and moving Out to Sea. Pouch 21L (Second Wave), got dropped by Euro and GFS, so we are gonna have to keep watching how this unfolds.
Quoting 706. weathermanwannabe:

Good Morning; here is the best guess on track per NHC and the models:










right now has long has 98L is staying W you can ignore the model runs from 98L
Quoting 705. birdsrock2016:

I know this may be too far out, but GFS has something near Florida at 384 hours.




you are a bit late on that has its been talked about a few commits down so we no
710. MahFL
Quoting 705. birdsrock2016:

I know this may be too far out, but GFS has something near Florida at 384 hours.



It would follow the other low up the coast and miss Florida.
latest photo of 98 not so great.
otherwise nothing to worry about through next weekend.
No surprise that a potential storm forming that far East in the Atlantic has a better chance of curving towards the pole in the Central Atlantic; its the storms that are intially SAL suppressed that then get a groove on West of 50W that the Caribbean and US needs to worry the most about.

The earlier this one reaches TD status and starts lifting North the better.



713. MahFL
Quoting 708. thetwilightzone:




right now has long has 98L is staying W you can ignore the model runs from 98L


98L is already moving more north.
Quoting 711. islander101010:

latest photo of 98 not so great




98L looks grate this AM not sure what you are looking at

715. MahFL
Quoting 712. weathermanwannabe:

No surprise that a potential storm forming that far East in the Atlantic has a better chance of curving towards the pole in the Central Atlantic; its the storms that are intially SAL suppressed that then get a groove on West of 50W that the Caribbean and US needs to worry the most about.

The earlier this one reaches TD status and starts lifting North the better.






It's the 2 waves behind 98L we need to be concerned about.
Good morning all .... I don't see this shifting very much as yet ....

Quoting 712. weathermanwannabe:

No surprise that a potential storm forming that far East in the Atlantic has a better chance of curving towards the pole in the Central Atlantic; its the storms that are intially SAL suppressed that then get a groove on West of 50W that the Caribbean and US needs to worry the most about.

The earlier this one reaches TD status and starts lifting North the better.







your going too be wrong about that right now 98L is weak has long has 98L stays weak it will head due W so you can ignore what models are showing for 98L in fact 98L may have all ready past the next forecast point of the track the models been hitting at wish dos not seems to be working out if 98L dos go out too sea it wont be do so in tell 50W it could even come closer then that
718. MahFL
Lots of dust on the northern half of 98L :

Will finally note as to 98L, when we discussed this issue yesterday afternoon as to TD status by Wed or not, that while the overall structure has improved, hence the upgrade in % from NHC, that we have still not seen persistent convection near a possible COC to help lower pressures yet but it does appear to be trying consolidate.  Also note the dry air/SAL on the Northside; ingestion as the system tries to organize further could hinder intensification in the short term until a good moisture envelope around the eventual COC is firmly established. 



720. MahFL
Quoting 717. thetwilightzone:




... 98L dos go out too sea it wont be do so in tell 50W it could even come closer then that...


It does not matter, 98L is still going out to sea.
721. JRRP7
Quoting 696. wunderweatherman123:

Pretty disappointed Euro dropped the 2nd wave after 6 consecutive runs. That 6z GFS run was probably an anomaly. From excited to frustrated and mad, that's what model runs do to you.

This is why you don't accept every model run as reality. Rarely ever does a model run correctly beyond 3-5 days. Some may models had earl going north of the islands as an invest we know how that played out.
725. JRRP7
Quoting 720. MahFL:



It does not matter, 98L is still going out to sea.

How do we know that for certain? I don't know that yet this invest is barely at 10 degrees yet. I am not saying it will or won't effect land but to already call it seems a bit premature.
"http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realti me/loop.asp?product=4kmsrbdc&storm_identifier=AL98 2016&starting_image=2016AL98_4KMSRBDC_201608152015 .jpg">
Still elongated at the mid and surface levels too; it will take a while for this rather large disturbance to consolidate but the overall motion to the SW (from yesterday) has stopped and currently headed W slightly to the NW:


Surface:

Mid:



730. MahFL
Quoting 726. sporteguy03:


How do we know that for certain? I don't know that yet this invest is barely at 10 degrees yet. I am not saying it will or won't effect land but to already call it seems a bit premature.


You are correct, it's not certain but highly probable.
About the only time I will root for Canada. Gotta' get closer to Bermuda to throw anything our way. I'm not sure 98L has the magic. Looks like a real hard and sharp northerly turn is still forecasted, but things could change. Those storms that run the gap between the east coast and Bermuda are the best. Also as they speed up north of OBX, they push tremendous swell into New England so those point breaks (and a couple of certain islands) get put to good use.

Quoting 685. islander101010:

look at it this way. gfs = skunked too far away no waves canadian = e. coast surfers delight
Quoting 698. Drakoen:

The circulation with 98L has improved overnight. It's also interesting that it has been moving to the west of the forecast models.
But not surprising ....
Quoting 701. Drakoen:



Strong low level flow out of the ESE to the north of the system to keep it going west until the circulation develops more depth.
This is typical of what we see.... this is going to take, imo, at least 12 - 18 more hours to wrap up ... by then it'll be as much as 200 miles further west ....
It does look like the complete wrap-up to TD status is going to happen north of 10N as it lifts out of the ITCZ; could happen by this evening or early tomorrow morning at this current rate IMHO.
Quoting 705. birdsrock2016:

I know this may be too far out, but GFS has something near Florida at 384 hours.

Not surprising given the high set up ... from there it typically might cross the Bahamas and Florida into the Gulf, or swing more NW towards GA and the Carolinas. Or there's the infrequently used Ike route, which would take it SW across Cuba .... :o)
The longer 98L stays disorganised ,the more west it goes. It looks like 98L will miss the weakness in the ridge and possibly threaten the Lesser Antilles .
Out of all the models the navgem seems to be handling 98L best with a mostly w to wnw track. That says a lot there.
6/1145 UTC 11.0N 31.6W T1.0/1.0 98L -- Atlantic
Quoting 717. thetwilightzone:




your going too be wrong about that right now 98L is weak has long has 98L stays weak it will head due W so you can ignore what models are showing for 98L in fact 98L may have all ready past the next forecast point of the track the models been hitting at wish dos not seems to be working out if 98L dos go out too sea it wont be do so in tell 50W it could even come closer then that
The track shape and speed look logical to me; it's just the starting point. I still expect we're going to see a more NW movement with Fiona; I just don't think it'll start before Fiona hits 35W ...
If you look at the HWRF, you can see the second wave right behind it on here, it shows 1009mb, now if that means anything or not too early to tell.
743. JRRP7
HurricaneTracker App ‏@hurrtrackerapp
As you can see in this graphic, #98L hasn’t gained any real measurable altitude. Hovering around 9 degrees N.
6/1145 UTC 11.0N 31.6W T1.0/1.0 98L -- Atlantic
745. JRRP7
All I can say is that if the weakness does not materialize and/or 98L remains weak and continues westward, it will be "game on." The blog will probably explode. poof

Quoting 743. JRRP7:

HurricaneTracker App ‏@hurrtrackerapp
As you can see in this graphic, #98L hasn’t gained any real measurable altitude. Hovering around 9 degrees N.

Quoting 720. MahFL:



It does not matter, 98L is still going out to sea.
Of course it matters ... the closer it gets, the higher the tension.
Quoting 721. JRRP7:


This looks better defined, and are those 50kt barbs I'm seeing? But it's still well south of 10N ....
Quoting 723. Climate175:


Wonder if that first pouch will get close enough to rain on us, or if it'll get "sucked into the void" .... lol ... also, wasn't beell talking yesterday about a TUTT setting up across FL and the central Bahamas?
if you live in bermuda i would keep a eye on 98L has it head out too sea bermuda maybe the only thing 98L will hit on the way out so it would not be a fish storm if it hits bermuda
AL, 98, 2016081606, , BEST, 0, 99N, 293W, 25, 1008, DB
AL, 98, 2016081612, , BEST, 0, 102N, 314W, 25, 1008, DB
Quoting 729. weathermanwannabe:

Still elongated at the mid and surface levels too; it will take a while for this rather large disturbance to consolidate but the overall motion to the SW (from yesterday) has stopped and currently headed W slightly to the NW:


Surface:

Mid:




Surface vorticity has increased ....
Quoting 735. weathermanwannabe:

It does look like the complete wrap-up to TD status is going to happen north of 10N as it lifts out of the ITCZ; could happen by this evening or early tomorrow morning at this current rate IMHO.
Slowly drifting W to WNW ...
Quoting 738. stoormfury:

The longer 98L stays disorganised ,the more west it goes. It looks like 98L will miss the weakness in the ridge and possibly threaten the Lesser Antilles .
Not necessarily .... the system that's supposed to create the weakness isn't moving east that fast, either. So we may get our weakness a bit later, meaning that 98L would be closer to the Antilles but still be drawn north before it gets that far west.
Not sure how far west this will go before more of a north movement, it is certainly south and west of the forecast tracks. Will be interesting to see what 98L does the rest of the day but right now its hard to see a north turn soon.
at lest 98L is not speeding like earl was
Quoting 743. JRRP7:

HurricaneTracker App ‏@hurrtrackerapp
As you can see in this graphic, #98L hasn’t gained any real measurable altitude. Hovering around 9 degrees N.

This is a useful graphic. Where did you get it?
Quoting 753. WeatherkidJoe2323:

Not sure how far west this will go before more of a north movement, it is certainly south and west of the forecast tracks. Will be interesting to see what 98L does the rest of the day but right now its hard to see a north turn soon.


yep model runs are going too be way off on this they are all ready way off right now has i been saying
757. JRRP7
Quoting 755. BahaHurican:

This is a useful graphic. Where did you get it?

Twtter
Link
Quoting 753. WeatherkidJoe2323:

Not sure how far west this will go before more of a north movement, it is certainly south and west of the forecast tracks. Will be interesting to see what 98L does the rest of the day but right now its hard to see a north turn soon.
I'm expecting a WNW drift through tomorrow morning at the least.... maybe we see a more northerly motion this time on Thursday .... between maybe 45 and 50W? The sooner it wraps up, the sooner we see this.

I gotta run. Y'all have a good day of tracking and observation ....
I respect models and specially all the efforts placed by the people behind it trying to predict how nature will behave...but in this era nothing still compares with a very good satellite image (just IMHO).
Quoting 728. Climate175:


A lot of uncertainty with the dynamics out in front of 98L; especially more than 72 hours out. I don't think a CONUS landfall is off the table. Highly unlikely, yes. Impossible, no. My prediction is it shaves just to the east of Bermuda, but the track is far from carved in stone (at this time). If it somehow passes south of Bermuda, I could see it resuming a due west heading. Should keep us all on our toes.

Let get ready to Rumble!
98L has the smell of fish all over it. Look for a NW turn around 45W and then a eventual re-curve. We may see a burger or a rock lobster in the near future.
Looks like an axis of convergence with some cyclonic turning about that axis. Still got a ways to go at the surface.

Quoting 722. sporteguy03:


This is why you don't accept every model run as reality. Rarely ever does a model run correctly beyond 3-5 days. Some may models had earl going north of the islands as an invest we know how that played out.


Quite true- the models are certainly not always totally accurate nor infallible. Earl definitely demonstrated that with regards to some model runs. (That being said the HWRF was spot on...and usually is) As always -time will tell.
Also, the tropical feature slightly ahead of 98L bears watching, given the "Lesser Antilles rule" it may become a system to look out for down the road as it nears the islands with impacts most likely acquiring increased organization and intensity as well.

God Bless!
Good morning

It's an 85, feeling like 87, with a few fluffy white clouds floating around on the island today.

I've been pretty good about giving you the stats on the Zika virus the last couple of months but today I give it to you on a personal side of life.

As many of you know, last year I came down with the Chickengunya virus and did a blog on it which was well received by many on the blog, as well as being shared all over the Caribbean, and many countries far and wide. It really surprised me.

So I guess I have to do another one on the Zika virus. Yes, yours truly and many, many others here on St. Thomas, at least in my area of the island have come down with it. We were good soldiers, eliminating ANY standing water and using mosquito repellant. I stopped short of long sleeves and pants as I refused to go that far as it is way too hot for that kind of thing.

For about two days prior to the full-blown symptoms, it was a case of "I don't know what's wrong but something just feels off" feeling. The next day I scratched my arm and felt the bumps. Out of bed to look in the mirror and saw that I was covered....and I mean COVERED in a red rash. That progressed to red eyes and an extreme sensitivity to light for a couple of days. Then the pain, very reminiscent of Chickengunya, in my joints, mainly from my knees down to the tips of my toes and my elbows to the tips of my fingers, along with extreme swelling in every joint included. Also had a low grade fever for about two and a half days.

Fortunately, this only lasted for about four days and I am now in the clear. The one member of the household that I would have worried most about is stateside now and has been for months. It seems that those that I know of that have come down with it are not of child-bearing ages (us old folks and young kids are getting kicked).

It's interesting that they say that the majority of people who get this virus won't even know they have it as the symptoms can be so subtle. All I can say is that it kicked my "behind".....

Hoping all is well with you folks!

Lindy
Quoting 756. thetwilightzone:



yep model runs are going too be way off on this they are all ready way off right now has i been saying


Taz, weren't you saying the other day that the season was done? I could have sworn that's what you were saying....
All we have with 98L is a blob of insignificant moisture that is going way to fast for any kind of development. It will stay weak and head west for possible future problems. The winds need to relax not only at the surface but mid and upper levels also. All we have now is a elongated blob moving at 25 mph way to fast for any kind of structure. Business as usual?
Quoting 716. BahaHurican:

Good morning all .... I don't see this shifting very much as yet ....


Its so far south, i wonder if it misses the weakness..If it does intensify, it has a better shot at recurve..
good Morning folks! More waves are developing over Africa I see
Back to boring...
wavecaster

lol

Quoting 768. bigwes6844:

good Morning folks! More waves are developing over Africa I see

While I agree some of the models move 98L a little to fast to the NW, the weakness in the ridge is obvious in a few days. It doesn't appear to have much impediment to development and should at least reach TS status, but it will begin the movement NW is a day or two.



However, the 3rd wave to come off of Africa looks to be the most promising. It is much for vigorous and while it is too early to tell the exact steering currents, it should follow a more westerly motion.

Back to boring?  What happened now? 
773. MahFL
Quoting 768. bigwes6844:

good Morning folks! More waves are developing over Africa I see



They are the ones that could impact the USA.
Quoting 772. Hurricanes101:

Back to boring?  What happened now? 

No models have any storms going to the NE Leewards.
Quoting 775. HurricaneFan:


No models have any storms going to the NE Leewards.


Poor guy lol
Quoting 772. Hurricanes101:

Back to boring?  What happened now? 
The Euro dropped the caribbean cruiser.

Well, somehow this developed. And somehow Conson landfalled Siberia as a TS.
Noticed on Sunday in DC that skies were blue rather than the usual washed out white with haze we get during heat waves. Not sure why but we've definitely had less haze than usual all summer. Sunday also observed smaller clouds were precipitating.. something I remember in FL but is less common here. This is characteristic of an environment with few condensation nuclei (marine airmass) rather than many (continental airmass).

"Why" is beyond my present knowledge since our air had a long trajectory over the continent on Sunday but "Marine" CCN distrubutions can often be found deep into continents (I remember a paper sampling a Marine CCN distrubution in Missouri in the 70s or 80s)

In TLH East or southeast winds almost guaranteed a "Marine" CCN distribution in summer. Any component aloft out of the north brought haze and continental CCN.
The third wave, as referenced by Grothar, will provide this site some relief (I hope).

It's that time of the year.
Currently 98L is moving W 278° at 24mph I don't expect much change in movement any time soon and 98L may move a little faster but either way 98L is currently moving fast
glad your feeling better lindy i think zika will spread all over the se. the fever rash is the worst. it will make you want to rip your skin off it itches so much. zika is alot like malaria just more subtle.
Quoting 775. HurricaneFan:


No models have any storms going to the NE Leewards.


That's if you don't count
CLIP
NGV2
NGX2
OCD5
TBAMD
TCLP
And sorta the CMC
For 98L
Quoting 769. CaribBoy:

Back to boring...
Yea false start back to drawing board.
787. JRRP7
Quoting 761. scott39:

98L has the smell of fish all over it. Look for a NW turn around 45W and then a eventual re-curve. We may see a burger or a rock lobster in the near future.


Jim Cantore laid it out very well showing the weakness that will pull it poleward. While some are hanging on to irrelevant models or the current westward movement, the path is there as described in the TWO.
Quoting 786. help4u:

Yea false start back to drawing board.


There are several more waves on the horizon and steering currents just might be different.
791. JRRP7

Quoting 784. islander101010:

glad your feeling better lindy i think zika will spread all over the se. the fever rash is the worst. it will make you want to rip your skin off it itches so much. zika is alot like malaria just more subtle.


I am feeling much better, thanks! The rash I had this time didn't drive me to insanity the way Chickengunya did. It was uncomfortable but was able to deal with it.

I wanted to reference my blog but for some reason I can't find it. Of course, it was written under "VirginIslandsVisitor" but to make a long story short, I forgot my password, haven't used that email in years and forgot the password for that email, so hence this new name. *rolling eyes*

-L
The biggest dagger was the Euro dropping the 2nd wave. Might have to wait until September for real CV action. This was said in 2013 too and that turned out to be wonderful....
794. JRRP7
The Cape Verde part of the season is just starting and the next 5-6 weeks will be interesting in terms of how many storms we will see the Atlantic spin off and how the ridging and troffing will set up for each individual storm; we could see a few fishes, a few misses due to trofs, and a few sneaking into the Caribbean or headed towards Florida or the Gulf. No way to know how each one will turn out due to the large scale synoptic patterns. Will only note that shear is dropping nicely in the Central Atlantic, and around Florida and the Bahamas, at the moment n(while the Gulf and Caribbean is closed for business).  These shear windows of opportunity will also open and close as to each individual storm over the next two months in any given region.






Don't be surprised we see storms develop quickly in the Caribbean and GOM in a few weeks because Mr MJO is about to pay a nice visit towards them.
Quoting 790. Climate175:

I have a question, when was the last you thought a storm would go in a more northerly direction, don't mean to be uncivil but it seems with a lot of these past storms you think all will head in a westerly direction every time. I keep noticing that.


Colin I think it was

Look you do know that most storms down that area usually moves E-W anyway

Plus so far most of the storms did go further W than they forecasted

Quoting 798. wunderkidcayman:



Colin I think it was

Look yo do know that most storms down that area usually moves E-W anyway

Plus so far most of the storms did go further W than they forecasted


Hmmmm.
Quoting 797. bigwes6844:

Don't be surprised we see storms develop quickly in the Caribbean and GOM in a few weeks because Mr MJO is about to pay a nice visit towards them.

Models are shifting a bit with the MJO..If it arrives, it does not appear to be vary strong...

Quoting 764. LindyVirginIslander:

Good morning

It's an 85, feeling like 87, with a few fluffy white clouds floating around on the island today.

I've been pretty good about giving you the stats on the Zika virus the last couple of months but today I give it to you on a personal side of life.

As many of you know, last year I came down with the Chickengunya virus and did a blog on it which was well received by many on the blog, as well as being shared all over the Caribbean, and many countries far and wide. It really surprised me.

So I guess I have to do another one on the Zika virus. Yes, yours truly and many, many others here on St. Thomas, at least in my area of the island have come down with it. We were good soldiers, eliminating ANY standing water and using mosquito repellant. I stopped short of long sleeves and pants as I refused to go that far as it is way too hot for that kind of thing.

For about two days prior to the full-blown symptoms, it was a case of "I don't know what's wrong but something just feels off" feeling. The next day I scratched my arm and felt the bumps. Out of bed to look in the mirror and saw that I was covered....and I mean COVERED in a red rash. That progressed to red eyes and an extreme sensitivity to light for a couple of days. Then the pain, very reminiscent of Chickengunya, in my joints, mainly from my knees down to the tips of my toes and my elbows to the tips of my fingers, along with extreme swelling in every joint included. Also had a low grade fever for about two and a half days.

Fortunately, this only lasted for about four days and I am now in the clear. The one member of the household that I would have worried most about is stateside now and has been for months. It seems that those that I know of that have come down with it are not of child-bearing ages (us old folks and young kids are getting kicked).

It's interesting that they say that the majority of people who get this virus won't even know they have it as the symptoms can be so subtle. All I can say is that it kicked my "behind".....

Hoping all is well with you folks!

Lindy

Im glad you are ok Im doing my best not to catch it here on st.thomas especially with all the rains lately the mosquitoes have gone crazy
Quoting 793. wunderweatherman123:

The biggest dagger was the Euro dropping the 2nd wave. Might have to wait until September for real CV action. This was said in 2013 too and that turned out to be wonderful....
yep
Quoting 788. Bucsboltsfan:



Jim Cantore laid it out very well showing the weakness that will pull it poleward. While some are hanging on to irrelevant models or the current westward movement, the path is there as described in the TWO.

That is nearly set in stone. This one gets pulled north... the next several have a shot at Caribbean cruising. One of the harder things over the last many years is the effort it takes to sort the wishcasters from those who understand what's really going on. Usually, you don't have to go far from Henson and Masters... they usually have a good fix on things. But... this is an entertaining and educational place this time of year. Few will debate that point.
Good morning Lindy,

Very happy that you're feeling much better! We've had our 1st case last week in Marathon in the Middle Keys.

Found it for you...

Link

CHIKUNGUNYA, No Laughing Matter!
By: VirginIslandsVisitor, 6:53 PM GMT on October 08, 2014

“Chikungunya fever is spreading more rapidly through Latin America and the Caribbean than it takes to learn to spell and pronounce its name correctly.”

“chikungunya
noun
An acute infectious disease caused by a mosquito-borne virus, characterized by fever, rash, and joint pain, and seen primarily in Africa, India, and Southeast Asia. Also called chicken guinea disease.

Origin of chikungunya
Makonde (Bantu language of the region of Tanzania where an epidemic in the 1950s led to the first medical description of the disease) : chi-, sing. n. pref. + -kungunyala, to become contorted, fold up (so called because joint pain causes sufferers from the disease to assume a hunched posture).”

"Symptoms

- Most people infected with chikungunya virus will develop some symptoms.

- Symptoms usually begin 3–7 days after being bitten by an infected mosquito.

- The most common symptoms are fever and joint pain.

- Other symptoms may include headache, muscle pain, joint swelling, or rash.

- Chikungunya disease does not often result in death, but the symptoms can be severe and disabling.

- Most patients feel better within a week. In some people, the joint pain may persist for months.

-People at risk for more severe disease include newborns infected around the time of birth, older adults (≥65 years), and people with medical conditions such as high blood pressure, diabetes, or heart disease.

- Once a person has been infected, he or she is likely to be protected from future infections."

Back in early January of 2014, we (St. Thomas islanders), began hearing stories of this mosquito-borne virus called “Chikungunya Virus”. Of course, we read the newspapers, listened to the radio and watched television but really, it was all happening in another world, another island and had no real consequence to us, or so most everyone believed. The media kept pushing the issue, but again and again, the common consensus was “Not here, mon, we’re not gonna get dis ting!” We were faithful about turning containers upside down so no water was being accumulated, we religiously used “Eau de Off”, sprayed the insides of the house and all to no avail.

“Dis ting”, now being referred to by various names such as “Chickenchanga, Chimigunya, Chicken Nuggets, Chicken Gumbo,” “Try and Cry” or perhaps my personal favorite being “Chickenganja”, was detected here on the island mid-January, and has spread like wild fire through St. Thomas.

By June there was only one reported case acquired here on the island, and two cases imported. The rumor mill was going fast and furious, that so and so knew so and so, and he knew so and so that had it and on and on. By August there were a suspected 214 cases with 25 of those being confirmed; as of September 13, there are 46 confirmed/probable and 677 suspected cases; and as of September 20, 59 confirmed/probable and 757 suspected. There is no one on this island who has not been affected in one way or another by someone who has had the virus or has had it themselves; two of the four in my household have had it, myself included.

The official status of the virus in the US Virgin Islands can by found here: Link

In my eyes, herein lies one of the problems of verifying actual numbers of cases. The CDC is offering a free blood test to anyone who suspects they have the virus. Having just gone through it myself, I can tell you that the last thing I wanted or needed to do was get into a car and go down to a packed emergency room or doctor’s office and wait hours for the CDC to get a vial of my blood. No, it wasn’t going to happen. I could barely make it to the washroom, let alone down a hallway for a glass of water! There are many on this island who don’t have transportation and have to rely on public transportation to get around. Again, who in their right mind is going to do that when you are so ill and hurting so badly? Again, I say “Not me!” If the CDC/local health authorities really wanted an accurate number, they would set up “stations” around the island and advertise their whereabouts for a few days. I believe they would be amazed at the results they might get and how drastically the statistics would change.

So how is life for me post-virus? The indescribable pain in my feet and hands has left me, but with the gift of the “ouch”, “aiyiyi”, “OMG”, along with moans and groans every morning when I get up out of bed and try to walk. I work the aches and pains out and am good as long as I don’t stop for more than two hours. I am still dealing with pain in my ankles, knees, hips, wrists and back but each day is a little better. However, the hives that I developed the day before yesterday are almost (but not quite) as bad as the virus.

As I mentioned in the blog, this virus laughs at Benadryl. I went into a pharmacy and pleaded with the pharmacist to help me out. To any of you out there reading this blog, that might need this info, this is what he gave me: Leader Anti-Itch Lotion and Leader All Day Allergy pills. It took a little while but they did the trick in helping me with the hives.
____________

It's been about two and a half weeks since I started this blog. Yes, I am still alive and kicking but it's been a hellish couple of weeks. As of today I am left with ankles that swell throughout the day, wrists that hurt so much that I can't open a water bottle, and a general feeling of just being tired which gets worse as the day wears on.

As far as transmission of the virus, you see on the link that I provided above that there are official figures but they so inaccurate!! "Ha, you think you're immune? Just wait...." is a commonly heard expression in my favorite bar. Seeing people walking hunched over and/or holding on to someone for support is not uncommon, nor is there any guesswork involved wondering what is wrong.

To sum this up, there is only one good thing that has come out of me getting this virus and that is the fact that I've had it and am almost over it. Good luck to any of you facing it....
Updated: 6:54 PM GMT on October 08, 2014

Quoting 801. hydrus:

Models are shifting a bit with the MJO..If it arrives, it does not appear to be vary strong...



Statistical guidance has been too quick to both progress and weaken the upward pulse of Madden Julian as of late. American numerical guidance has been verifying better in the shorter term since the pulse began (which to be fair, doesn't always happen).

If one looks at the GFS/GEFS solution, it keeps the upwards pulse in the Western Pacific, which makes sense to me given the developing Monsoon Gyre.



well if 98L doesnt get strong fast enough like the models say not seeing it be pulled so far out..But its a wait and see game ill continue to monitor its progress
Quoting 805. ChillinInTheKeys:

Good morning Lindy,

Very happy that you're feeling much better! We've had our 1st case last week in Marathon in the Middle Keys.

Found it for you

Thank you so much!

-L
That would be a very slow mover. Maybe I am not reading that correctly. Maybe I just don't want to...

wavecaster (self proclaimed)

At least there is plenty to entertain the blog.

Quoting 795. Grothar:


Quoting 801. hydrus:

Models are shifting a bit with the MJO..If it arrives, it does not appear to be vary strong...




How much will that matter in the first week of September though...if the coals are hot all you need is a spark.
811. MahFL
Quoting 805. ChillinInTheKeys:

Good morning Lindy,

Very happy that you're feeling much better! We've had our 1st case last week in Marathon in the Middle Keys.


My stepson caught this when he was doing missionary work in Haiti.
Back in late July a lot of users on here were saying how the East Pacific was likely in for a hyperactive season...and now, the EPAC has abruptly shut down. Aside from July, the 2016 EPAC season has been well below average. Unlike last year, which had numerous storms forming in the central Pacific, we have not had a single named storm in the CPAC yet this year (aside from Pali). The CPAC and EPAC both could see some storms soon, but they are more than likely to be weak. The PDO is not very positive anymore and it's likely having an impact on the EPAC season.
813. MahFL
Right now even neutral MJO conditions would be good enough, waters are at record warmth, and the TCHP is off the charts in some places.
Some people have stooped to an all time low on here.
Models all over place one day 3 storms next day nothing.Frustrating when you follow storms.Do not understand how one day conditions are great next day not.
Quoting 812. HurricaneFan:

Back in late July a lot of users on here were saying how the East Pacific was likely in for a hyperactive season...and now, the EPAC has abruptly shut down. Aside from July, the 2016 EPAC season has been well below average. Unlike last year, which had numerous storms forming in the central Pacific, we have not had a single named storm in the CPAC yet this year (aside from Pali). The CPAC and EPAC both could see some storms soon, but they are more than likely to be weak. The PDO is not very positive anymore and it's likely having an impact on the EPAC season.


The EPAC has shown that it can take advantage of fair-to above average conditions and produce storms. While we had Earl, where the MJO was in our favor and a strong CCKW was moving through the region, the EPAC had subpar conditions to work with and still produced a few tropical storms (Howard, Ivette, etc). Right now, anything north of 12 looks like a dead zone there.
i have to say that i'm a bit flummoxed on why the models dropped the development of the wave that would've been probably Gaston.

Any idea why? Or is it a regular occurrence of drunk models?
Death toll has risen to 8 people. Another body found in Baton Rouge. So sad!
12z GFS running, let's see how it handles 98L...
GFS 500 mb. absolute vorticity, which is close to 6 kilometers or 19,685 feet in the troposphere. Shows positive values for both 98L and the tropical wave expected to emerge off the coast of Africa and into the Atlantic in 4 days.

Definition of absolute vorticity from the American Meteorological Society (AMS):

The vorticity of a fluid particle determined with respect to an absolute coordinate system.

The absolute vorticity vector is defined by 2Ω + ∇ × u, where Ω is the earth's angular velocity vector and u is the three-dimensional relative velocity vector.

The vertical component η of the absolute vorticity vector (as defined above) given by the sum of the vertical component of the vorticity with respect to the earth (the relative vorticity) ζ and the vorticity of the earth (equal to the Coriolis parameter) f:





Quoting 815. help4u:

Models all over place one day 3 storms next day nothing.Frustrating when you follow storms.Do not understand how one day conditions are great next day not.

Yoy just have to keep in mind that models are just that ... models. They are and always will be imperfect. The key is not necessarily to look for storms but to look for patterns and consistency. The fact they have 3 storms one day and none the next is irrelevent ... all you can take with certantity is that conditions will become more favorable in the east atlantic over the coming week and so forth.
Quoting 818. TheGreatHodag:

i have to say that i'm a bit flummoxed on why the models dropped the development of the wave that would've been probably Gaston.

Any idea why? Or is it a regular occurrence of drunk models?
I read a few years ago about "data blackouts" that can occur over Africa and that basically means that the models are not getting the proper data samples that they need which is why picking up on waves while they are still over Africa can still be somewhat difficult.The wave currently looks impressive and should splash down within two days.As you can see the models did not have a proper handle of 98L until it had a invest designation.
825. JRRP7
Quoting 820. HurricaneFan:

12z GFS running, let's see how it handles 98L...

a bit more west and south than 06z, 00z, 18z...
Quoting 822. hurricaneryan87:


Yoy just have to keep in mind that models are just that ... models. They are and always will be imperfect. The key is not necessarily to look for storms but to look for patterns and consistency. The fact they have 3 storms one day and none the next is irrelevent ... all you can take with certantity is that conditions will become more favorable in the east atlantic over the coming week and so forth.
you sure about the conditions becoming more favorable Phil Klotzbach does not agree with cold pool of water in North Atlantic.
Quoting 814. washingtonian115:

Some people have stooped to an all time low on here.
Agreed.
It's worth pointing out the south and west trend in the models for 98L...the top image is yesterday's 12z run and the bottom image is today's 12z run, both at 00z Thursday:



While everyone is debating what 98L is gonna do or not do....my attention is on the heavy rain moving in the Houston area right now....it's pouring buckets at my house and backyard has some standing water in it. Have had about 5" inches of rain in last 3 days and could get 2/4 today....pretty large "blob" moving into area. Hope folks in Louisiana are drying out and be able to begin clean up, prayers go out to families who lost loved ones in the flood there.
831. JRRP7
Quoting 825. JRRP7:


a bit more west and south than 06z, 00z, 18z...

but this is inevitable
I don't even really have an opinion on the second and third wave, I am just gonna sit back and watch it all play out, gonna be interesting to see.
It looks likely that, assuming 98L does develop, it will remain a tropical depression for a while before it becomes a tropical storm, if it becomes a tropical storm at all.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
The storm system over the Great Lakes should be in the North Central Atlantic in 2 days, which should act to create an even bigger weakness in the Subtropical Ridge and help turn 98L on a more northerly path.

If you have water,bottled or canned water to donate, me here or wu mail
Quoting 768. bigwes6844:

good Morning folks! More waves are developing over Africa I see


I see 5 (4+ 1inMediterranean).
98L appears pretty ill-defined af present and it's still on a wnw-nw heading. Give it a day or two and as it begins a n-nne heading, should begin to strengthen in earnest. Just my opinion. It may never become anything, but that's likely its window, given the dry conditions. I wouldn't be surprised either if it does nothing (96L).

3rd wave. Maybe..

Have a good day all!