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Bill weakens, but still generating huge waves

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:29 PM GMT on August 20, 2009

Hurricane Bill has peaked in intensity, and now shows signs of weakening. Visible and infrared satellite imagery show that the hurricane is no longer as symmetric as it once was, with an oval instead of circular shape to its cloud pattern. Upper-level cirrus clouds are restricted on the storm's southwest side, indicating that upper-level winds from the southwest are shearing the storm. The University of Wisconsin CIMSS wind shear analysis shows about 10 - 15 knots of wind shear impacting Bill. The latest 8:18am EDT eye report from the Hurricane Hunters indicated that the eyewall had a gap in its southwest side, and the pressure had risen 2 mb since last night, to 951 mb. Maximum winds at the surface observed by the SFMR instrument were only Category 2 strength, though winds measured at the aircraft flight level of 10,000 feet still suggested Bill may be a Category 3 hurricane.

Wind shear is forecast to remain low to moderate, 5 - 15 knots, for the next three days, and it is possible Bill may see a relaxation of the wind shear affecting it, allowing re-intensification to Category 4 status. Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) will be plenty warm over the next three days, as Bill traverses a region of ocean with SSTs of 28 - 29°C. Total ocean heat content is at a maximum today, and will gradually decline over the next three days.


Figure 1. Visible satellite image of Bill at 1:33 pm EDT Thursday 8/20/09. Bill had an oval shape oriented SW - NE, and was missing upper-level cirrus clouds on the southwest side, indicating that wind shear from strong upper-level southwesterly winds was affecting it.

Water vapor satellite loops continue to show two small "short-wave" troughs of low pressure to the northwest of Bill, and these troughs are continuing to steer Bill to the northwest. The short wave troughs (so called because they have a relatively small amplitude and wavelength) are not strong enough to turn Bill due north, so Bill is expected to miss Bermuda. The official NHC forecast has the radius of tropical storm force winds from Bill barely reaching Bermuda on Saturday, so the island can expect sustained winds in the 35 - 45 mph range for a few hours on Saturday if the hurricane follows the NHC forecast track.


Figure 2. Visible satellite image of Bill's eye zoomed in, taken from NASA's Aqua spacecraft at 10:15am EDT Wednesday August 19, 2009. Image credit: NASA GSFC.

An unusually strong "long wave" trough of low pressure (called long wave because of its large amplitude and wavelength) is expected to develop along the U.S. East Coast this weekend. This trough will turn Bill to the north, and also bring high levels of wind shear in the 40 - 65 knot range on Sunday. The models have moved the forecast landfall point of Bill several hundred miles back and forth to the east and west over the past few days, but mostly agree that Cape Cod and Maine will probably miss a direct hit by Bill. However, these regions are still at the edge of Bill's cone of uncertainty, and a direct strike by Bill at Category 1 or 2 strength is a possibility. However, it is more likely that Bill will come ashore over the Canadian provinces of Nova Scotia or Newfoundland. Bill will be weakening rapidly as it makes landfall, and is likely to be a Category 1 hurricane if it hits Nova Scotia, or strong tropical storm if it hits Newfoundland. If Bill follows the official NHC forecast path, winds on Cape Cod and in eastern Maine are likely to remain below tropical storm force (below 39 mph).

Bill's waves
Hurricane Bill is generating huge waves, thanks to its enormous size and major hurricane intensity. Bill passed about 75 miles southwest of Buoy 41044 this morning, and the buoy recorded sustained winds of 67 mph, gusting to 92 mph, with a significant wave height (the height of the average 1/3 highest waves) of 38.8 feet. Output from NOAA's Wavewatch III model suggests that significant wave heights near Bill's center will peak at 50 feet by Saturday. Large swells from Bill will reach Bermuda this afternoon, increasing seas to 5 - 9 feet, according to the Bermuda Weather Service. Seas will increase to 10 - 20 feet on Friday and 20 - 30 feet on Saturday as Bill makes its closest approach to the island.

In the U.S., Bill's swells will reach New York's Long Island on Friday afternoon, and seas will build to 7 - 10' on Saturday and 12 - 16' on Sunday in the near shore waters. By Friday night, Bill's swells will be affecting the entire U.S. East Coast from Florida to Cape Cod. Maximum sea heights in near shore waters over the weekend will be about 7' from Florida to South Carolina, 11 - 14' along the North Carolina coast, 8 - 11' along the mid-Atlantic coast, and 10 - 11' along the coast of Maine. The highest waves along the U.S. coast will occur at Cape Cod, Massachusetts, where waves of 18 - 23' are being forecast by NOAA for Sunday. Bill's high waves are going to cause millions of dollars in erosion damage and create very dangerous rip currents and swimming conditions along the coast.

Hurricane History of Canada
Canada is no stranger to hurricanes, and receives a hit by a Category 1 or stronger hurricane several times per decade, on average. The most recent hurricane strike on Canada occurred in 2008, when Hurricane Kyle struck the southwestern tip of Nova Scotia, just north of Yarmouth. Kyle was rated a Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds at landfall, but damage was limited to uprooted trees, scattered power outages, and minor street flooding in Shelburne. The other hurricane to hit Nova Scotia this decade was much more serious. In 2003, Hurricane Juan made landfall at Halifax, Nova Scotia, as a Category 2 hurricane with 100 mph winds. A record storm surge of 4.9 feet inundated the city's waterfront, resulting in extensive flooding of the Halifax and Dartmouth waterfront properties. A buoy just outside Halifax Harbor measured a significant wave height of 9 meters (30 feet), and maximum wave heights of 20 meters (65 feet). Four people died in the storm. Juan downed a phenomenal number of trees--agriculture specialists estimate that 50 - 100 million trees blew down in Nova Scotia in two hours, with one million downed in Halifax alone. The Canadian Hurricane Center has a nice historical hurricane page with more information and photos.


Figure 3. Close up view of the damage at the Bedford Yacht Club after Hurricane Juan in 2003. Photo: Gary Dunbrack. Image credit: Environment Canada website on Hurricane Juan.

Elsewhere in the tropics
There are no threat areas in the Atlantic worth mentioning today, and no reliable models are calling for tropical cyclone development over the next seven days.

I'll have an update Friday morning.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

2001. IKE
Bill is under about 20 knots of SW shear. Good chance he's peaked and won't make it back again like it was....

future you did west cast a forecast. personally i like the fear factor. if i hit the ignore button on my friends (real life) because they said something offensive or did something contrary it would be a lonely world.
2003. WxLogic
Quoting cajunmoma:


Wx can you give me the link to what you are talking about. Still learning here.


Sure... Link

Gave you the link to the main page as you'll be able to check out other models too.
Quoting IKE:
Wave at 30W looks interesting. Heading west...invest looks possible.


And the one behind it, just off the African coast.
Please do not feed the "apocalyptic" troll
Quoting leftovers:
future you did west cast a forecast. personally i like the fear factor. if i hit the ignore button on my friends (real life) because they said something offensive or did something contrary it would be a lonely world.


apocalyps is a troll. He has been filling this blog with his superfluous comments.
Quoting WxLogic:


Sure... Link

Gave you the link to the main page as you'll be able to check out other models too.


Thanks!!
Bill found the weakness, this is so the best case scenario. I just hope he does the recurve and messes with no one but jolly old england as a extratropical breeze.
Quoting IKE:
Bill is under about 20 knots of SW shear. Good chance he's peaked and won't make it back again like it was....



still powerful hurricane. SST are still high, might strengthen or maintain category status.
Quoting futuremet:


apocalyps is a troll. He has been filling this blog with his superfluous comments.


Even ignoring a troll is discrimination.
Ignoring Bill is going west is stupid.
apocalyps's blog too back in the 90s there was a character named dt had you pulling your hair out west west west and back then all but andrew turned out to sea.
2015. WxLogic
Quoting IKE:
Bill is under about 20 knots of SW shear. Good chance he's peaked and won't make it back again like it was....



I agree... based on the following:

Bill running perpendicular to the shear and not in the same direction shear is moving.

Of course not saying that it will just die right away... it should be able to keep its strength due to the warm waters...
2016. IKE
HURRICANE BILL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 24A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009
800 AM AST FRI AUG 21 2009


...BILL BECOMES A LITTLE LESS ORGANIZED...


A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FOR
BERMUDA.

INTERESTS ALONG THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND AND IN THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF BILL.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO
YOUR AREA OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS
ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

AT 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BILL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 26.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.8 WEST OR ABOUT 385 MILES...
620 KM...SOUTH OF BERMUDA AND ABOUT 820 MILES...1320 KM...SOUTHEAST
OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA.

BILL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR. A
GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY...
FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH ON SATURDAY. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO PASS BETWEEN
BERMUDA AND THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES ON SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 115 MPH...185
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. BILL IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. ALTHOUGH SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
THAT BILL HAS BECOME A LITTLE LESS ORGANIZED...SOME SLIGHT
RESTRENGTHENING IS STILL POSSIBLE LATER TODAY FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL
WEAKENING ON SATURDAY.


BILL IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 290 MILES...465 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 958 MB...28.29 INCHES.

BILL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4
INCHES OVER BERMUDA...WITH POSSIBLY SOME AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES.

SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED ALONG PORTIONS OF THE
BERMUDA COASTLINE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO DUE TO LARGE AND
DANGEROUS BREAKING WAVES GENERATED BY THE HURRICANE.

LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY THIS HURRICANE ARE AFFECTING PUERTO
RICO...HISPANIOLA...THE BAHAMAS...AND BERMUDA...AND SHOULD BEGIN
AFFECTING MOST OF THE U.S. EAST COAST AND THE ATLANTIC MARITIMES OF
CANADA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE
EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SURF AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS. THE
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC REPORTED SOME
COASTAL FLOODING WITH DAMAGE TO ROADS AND HOUSES DUE TO HIGH WAVES
ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

...SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST INFORMATION...

LOCATION...26.8N 65.8W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 17 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB


THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

Quoting leftovers:
apocalyps blog too


he does not deserve the attention, just ignore him..hasnt stated anything worth talking about..
Quoting justalurker:


he does not deserve the attention, just ignore him..hasnt stated anything worth talking about..


I dont need youre attention.LOL
But was it not me who predicted a turn on friday?I predicted this since thuesday.
And i was the only one who said when it would turn.Gives me a 100% accurate prediction if the turn happens today.
Quoting futuremet:
long range CMC

CMC is totally the best model for blob watching. It shows almost every possible developing storm. It's so cute and optimistic. That being said, it is sometimes the only one to develop blobs and thus catches ones the others miss.
I'm going to start ignoring troll quoters too. ;) What's the point of ignoring trolls if other regurgitate their spew?
2022. IKE
Northeast Arkansas weather for Saturday in August!>>>>>>>

Saturday: Sunny, with a high near 80. North northwest wind between 5 and 10 mph.

Saturday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 58. North wind around 5 mph.
Quoting HopquickSteve:
I'm going to start ignoring troll quoters too. ;) What's the point of ignoring trolls if other regurgitate their spew?


Good idea...and I've decided to ignore people who always tell everyone who they are ignoring.
Live webcam from Bermuda has been confgured to run non-stop today.

Live from the 2nd floor porch of my hotel in St. George's.

Will monitor stream for the next hour to confirm stability.

Then I'll leaave to go shoot HD from the west side.
A blast from the past...I didn't know Ike made it to #3, which means greater than hugo/ivan/etc.

Damage from Ike is estimated at $32 billion (2008 USD) of which $24 billion was in the US, the third most destructive U.S. hurricane on record, behind Katrina in 2005 and Andrew in 1992.[25] At least 195 fatalities have been blamed on Ike, of which 112 were in the United States. It was the most destructive hurricane in Texas history. Ike was an extremely large and powerful storm. At one point, the diameter of Ike's tropical storm and hurricane force winds were 600 and 240 miles (965 and 390 km), respectively, making Ike the largest Atlantic hurricane ever recorded.[26] Ike also had the highest Integrated Kinetic Energy (IKE) of any Atlantic storm. IKE is a measure of storm surge destructive potential, similar to the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale, though it is more complex and in many ways more accurate. On a scale that ranges from 1 to 6, with 6 being highest destructive potential, Ike earned a 5.6. Link
2028. WxLogic
Hmm... with all these unusual strong trough developing... I can't just imagine how this Winter is going to be... but looks to be full of SVR WX.
Quoting IKE:


He's back now.

Whats wrong with this map???

I thought ol' Bill went *Poof*
/late night lurking mode off

the sun has risen, there goes the leeway :(

//
the wecam is facing due south
2032. IKE
Quoting AussieStorm:

Whats wrong with this map???

I thought ol' Bill went *Poof*


WU having some technical glitches this morning. Go to the NHC site......til the problems are corrected.
Quoting AussieStorm:

Whats wrong with this map???

I thought ol' Bill went *Poof*


He jumped west and is now called VAMCO.
I could not believe it either.
2034. WxLogic
Quoting CycloneOz:
Live webcam from Bermuda has been confgured to run non-stop today.

Live from the 2nd floor porch of my hotel in St. George's.

Will monitor stream for the next hour to confirm stability.

Then I'll leaave to go shoot HD from the west side.


lol... you're actually in Bermuda now. Did though you traveled there. Well... since you're there, should be interesting to see your webcam in action. :)
Quoting WxLogic:
Hmm... with all these unusual strong trough developing... I can't just imagine how this Winter is going to be... but looks to be full of SVR WX.


Here in South Louisiana last year we got SNOW!! That was something I haven't seen in years. Maybe we will have more this winter???
2036. WxLogic
Quoting cajunmoma:


Here in South Louisiana last year we got SNOW!! That was something I haven't seen in years. Maybe we will have more this winter???


May be!!! :)
Good Morning All! Normally just a lurker but I came across this awesome link to different web cams along the NC coast. Should be interesting to watch the wave action.

http://www.obxconnection.com/Outer-Banks-Webcams.htm
From what i see the cmc and gfs both develop a cape verde disturbance and intensify as it approaches florida next week.Ssts in that area will be very favorable and likely low shear,,so florida needs to moniter the progress of this.
Quoting WxLogic:


lol... you're actually in Bermuda now. Did though you traveled there. Well... since you're there, should be interesting to see your webcam in action. :)


Unfortunately, I can only provide this static shot today.
2040. IKE
Long-term from Tallahassee...

"FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...MODELS ARE HINTING AT A PIECE OF
TROPICAL ENERGY/TROPICAL WAVE REACHING THE AREA AROUND THE
BAHAMAS/SOUTH FLORIDA ON THURSDAY. STEERING CURRENTS ARE WEAK BY
THIS TIME AND ANY NUMBER OF SCENARIOS ARE POSSIBLE CONCERNING AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE FROM THIS WAVE. PATH OF LEAST ERROR AT THIS
POINT WOULD BE TO NOT GET DETAILED...AND JUST BRING RAIN CHANCES
BACK TO NEAR CLIMO BY FRIDAY."
How nice if it would snow in miami again.. even if its for a little while..
After it snowed, there was an email about snow and hurricanes that was passed all over LA. It stated that each time it snowed in New Orleans, a major hurricane followed. The news researched it, and if I remember correctly out of all of those dates, there was only one year that was wrong. The most memorable year being 2004 when Katrina and Rita hit. Fingers crossed this year is going to bypass us too!!!
2043. jpsb
Quoting cajunmoma:


Here in South Louisiana last year we got SNOW!! That was something I haven't seen in years. Maybe we will have more this winter???
Temps were down an unbelievable 5-10 F this spring, I think this winter is going to be a very cold one.
Ok, I know this may be a stupid question, but why do Weather Advisories always sign off with two $$ before the Forecaster's name?
2045. WxLogic
Quoting IKE:
Long-term from Tallahassee...

"FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...MODELS ARE HINTING AT A PIECE OF
TROPICAL ENERGY/TROPICAL WAVE REACHING THE AREA AROUND THE
BAHAMAS/SOUTH FLORIDA ON THURSDAY. STEERING CURRENTS ARE WEAK BY
THIS TIME AND ANY NUMBER OF SCENARIOS ARE POSSIBLE CONCERNING AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE FROM THIS WAVE. PATH OF LEAST ERROR AT THIS
POINT WOULD BE TO NOT GET DETAILED...AND JUST BRING RAIN CHANCES
BACK TO NEAR CLIMO BY FRIDAY."


Interesting...
2046. P451
Bermuda Radar




Bill WV




Bill WV - Symmetry




Bill FT - Symmetry





12km WV


unless it stays weak the cv disturbance will likely follow bill footpath
Can someone post a link to the Bermuda Radar/Met page plz
New Invest in the East Pacific

EP 92 2009082106 BEST 0 133N 1324W 25 0 DB
Quoting leftovers:
...if i hit the ignore button on my friends (real life) because they said something offensive or did something contrary it would be a lonely world.


Morning all

Just thought this was worth putting up again.
2051. WxLogic
Quoting mcampb2811:
Ok, I know this may be a stupid question, but why do Weather Reports always sign of with two $$ before the reporter's name?


That's a good question... I believe it is auto-generated by their system.
2052. IKE
Long-term from NO,LA....

".LONG TERM...MDLS SHOWING PRETTY GOOD CONSISTENCY AND CONTINUITY
WITH THE EXTENDED. THE L/W TROUGH LOOKS LIKE IT WILL PUSH EAST OFF
THE ERN SEABOARD/FLATTEN OUT BY TUE WITH A PIECE OF IT BEING
DISPLACED OVER THE SERN CONUS/NRN GULF. AS THE PREVIOUS FCSTER
MENTIONED BOTH THAT FEATURE AND A LINGERING BNDRY IN THE GULF THIS
TIME OF THE YEAR COULD LEAD TO SOME DEVELOPMENT IN THE GULF. NOTHING
IS EXPECTED YET BUT WE WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE OUT.


THE BIGGEST SHIFT IN THE EXTENDED IS THE MDLS BASICALLY KEEPING US
DRY FOR THE MOST PART BUT I WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC IN THE FCST
BEGINNING WED. MOISTURE DOES START TO INCREASE BY MID/LATE WEEK AND
THIS SHOULD ALLOW ISLTD CONVECTION TO RETURN BUT OVERALL THINGS
SHOULD REMAIN QUIET THROUGH AT LEAST TUE AND POSSIBLY INTO WED.
MON AND TUE WILL CONTINUE TO FEEL COMFORTABLE. TEMPS WILL BE JUST
BELOW NORMAL BUT ON WED WE SHOULD BE BACK AROUND NORMAL AS BOTH LL
MOISTURE/TEMPS SLOWLY INCREASE. THE BIGGEST DEVIATIONS TO GUI WERE
MORNING LOWS MON AND TUE WHICH I WENT A FEW DEGREES BELOW THE MEX
ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE CWA...ESPECIALLY THE PEARL RIVER AND
PASCAGOULA DRAINAGE AREAS WHERE TEMPS MAY BE ABLE TO DROP A FEW
EXTRA DEGREES. AGAIN WE WILL MONITOR THE GULF FOR ANY DEVELOPMENT.
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT ALONG A DECAYING BNDRY IN THE GULF
OCCASIONALLY HAPPENS AND WITH TODAYS FRONT EXPECTED TO STALL OUT
OVER THE GULF EARLY NEXT WEEK...SLOW DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR AROUND
THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK.
"
2053. P451
Quoting AussieStorm:
Can someone post a link to the Bermuda Radar/Met page plz


Link
Quoting mcampb2811:
Ok, I know this may be a stupid question, but why do Weather Advisories always sign off with two $$ before the Forecaster's name?


Its for the announcers on NOAA radio, it signals them its the end of that product (no further info).
CMC says to watch for a Bill V2.0
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Its for the announcers on NOAA radio, it signals them its the end of that product (no further info).


That makes sense. Thanks.
Quoting P451:


Link

Thanks
.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FCST THROUGH
SUNDAY. DID LEAN TO 00Z GFS SUN NIGHT-TUE...KEEPING FRONT STALLED
OVER WATERS SUN NIGHT...THEN MOVING OFFSHORE MON...AND ADJUSTED
WINDS ACCORDINGLY.

REGULAR WV WATCH AND HRCN VERSION REMAIN IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH
BUILDING LONG PERIOD SE SWELL NEXT 36 HOURS. REGULAR WV WATCH SHOWS
MAX AT 13 FT EVERY 15 SECONDS AT 41025 NEAR 00Z SAT EVENING...WHILE
HRCN VERSION SHOWING MAX HEIGHTS OF 16 FT AND 16 SECOND PERIOD.
HAVE KEPT SEAS VERY SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS FORECASTS FOR NOW...USING
BLEND WITH PEAK NEAR 15 FEET. SEAS UP TO 6 FT OVER OUTER PORTIONS BY
THIS EVENING AND HAVE POSTED SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL SUN
EVENING.

.RIP CURRENTS...HIGH THREAT BEGINNING TODAY AND PERSISTING INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH INCREASING LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM HRCN BILL RESULTING
IN DANGEROUS SWIMMING CONDITIONS ALONG AREA BEACHES.-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
-- Changed Discussion --AS OF 430 AM FRI...A SIGNIFICANT LONG PERIOD SWELL WILL IMPACT THE
REGION FROM BILL STARTING TODAY AND CONT THROUGH SUN. THE SWELL WILL
PEAK SAT EVENING WITH HURRICANE WAVEWATCH CONT TO SHOW MAX SEAS IN
THE 12 TO 17 FOOT RANGE EVERY 16 SEC. COMBO OF HIGH SURF AND HIGH
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES COULD PRODUCE WATER LEVELS 3-4 FT ABOVE NORMAL
AND HAVE ISSUED COASTAL FLOOD WATCH SAT THROUGH SUN MORNING FOR
NORTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT. NO CHANGE TO HIGH SURF ADVISORY.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&

2059. BGMom
Cajunmoma and WXlogic -- since Bill is calming down a bit for now, and since you brought up the topic of winter weather....

Anyone out there who knows what the ElNino may mean in terms of snow for the south? Every year we PRAY for some white stuff. Just a snow day from school - please? A respectable snowfall that lasts more than 5 minutes!

Obviously, this is not the forum for a big discussion on this, but do any of you know of a group like yourselves -- that tracks and discusses the likelihood of wintery weather in the South -- somewhere I could check in this winter?

Talk about wishcasting! That is totally me in the winter, and I'm only slightly ashamed to admit it! ;)
Thanks!
Is anyone getting this

ERROR
There was a problem opening this user's Wunder Blog files. Please try again later.

Quoting cajunmoma:
After it snowed, there was an email about snow and hurricanes that was passed all over LA. It stated that each time it snowed in New Orleans, a major hurricane followed. The news researched it, and if I remember correctly out of all of those dates, there was only one year that was wrong. The most memorable year being 2004 when Katrina and Rita hit. Fingers crossed this year is going to bypass us too!!!

I live in Braithwaite, and my neighbors have been warning me ever since the snow last year. 'The last time it snowed, we had Katrina the next year'. I was hopeing it was just an 'old wives tale'.

By the way, Be safe out there OZ.
2062. IKE
Quoting AussieStorm:
Is anyone getting this

ERROR
There was a problem opening this user's Wunder Blog files. Please try again later.



I get it occasionally too. Refresh the page.
Quoting cajunmoma:
After it snowed, there was an email about snow and hurricanes that was passed all over LA. It stated that each time it snowed in New Orleans, a major hurricane followed. The news researched it, and if I remember correctly out of all of those dates, there was only one year that was wrong. The most memorable year being 2004 when Katrina and Rita hit. Fingers crossed this year is going to bypass us too!!!
Katrina and Rita hit in 2005
Quoting mcampb2811:
Ok, I know this may be a stupid question, but why do Weather Advisories always sign off with two $$ before the Forecaster's name?



because they get paid by the advisory. it's a signal to the Payroll Department to cut a check.
2065. amd
Bill took a beating last night from upper level shear.

Looks like in the last couple of images that Bill is trying to recover by wrapping more convection around its center.

I'm curious to see whether Bill is still a major hurricane at the 11 am advisory. Edit: 8 am edt advisory out: Bill's winds down to 115 mph, pressure 958 mb
Quoting AussieStorm:
Is anyone getting this

ERROR
There was a problem opening this user's Wunder Blog files. Please try again later.



From time to time Aussie...Just have to re-enter the blog. Not sure why, just another cyber glitch imvho.
2067. P451
00Z CMC



06Z GFS



WAVE MODEL

BILL and a nic looking wave may be are next player???

2069. P451
Quoting AussieStorm:
Is anyone getting this

ERROR
There was a problem opening this user's Wunder Blog files. Please try again later.



It seems to have replaced the "Dr. Jeff Masters does not have any blog entries." error page.

At least they're mixing it up. lol.
it appears that Bill has started the trck towards the NNW a lilttle ealier than was in the forecast, meanwhile the there is only weak 850mb vorticity with the wave near 11N 31W. The environment is becoming more conducive for development which will be slow to occur
why is bill not listed on the tropical home page here anyone know?
2073. IKE
System near 32W is looking better each frame.
Quoting KATRINABILOXIGIRL:
Katrina and Rita hit in 2005


It snowed December 2004

Link
morning everyone..looks like the next one is just getting started of of Africa...also I still see that little spin down by Belize...
Quoting BGMom:
Cajunmoma and WXlogic -- since Bill is calming down a bit for now, and since you brought up the topic of winter weather....

Anyone out there who knows what the ElNino may mean in terms of snow for the south? Every year we PRAY for some white stuff. Just a snow day from school - please? A respectable snowfall that lasts more than 5 minutes!

Obviously, this is not the forum for a big discussion on this, but do any of you know of a group like yourselves -- that tracks and discusses the likelihood of wintery weather in the South -- somewhere I could check in this winter?

Talk about wishcasting! That is totally me in the winter, and I'm only slightly ashamed to admit it! ;)
Thanks!


Sorry I don't know of any. I am merely an amature ;) But anyone does, I would like to know as well!!
Think I'll go get my crayons, take a yellow one from the box, and draw a circle at 32/13 today.
ike if the trend continues with EATL system then we might soon have 91L
we had 91L lol the next one would be 92L
Bermuda radar and AWOS



Link
Morning: I see some hiccups in the blog this morning - Bill has 'poofed' from the main page. Hopefully his decline in intensity will continue.
taz thanks for the correction
Quoting BobinTampa:



because they get paid by the advisory. it's a signal to the Payroll Department to cut a check.
lol
2084. P451
Quoting Tazmanian:
BILL and a nic looking wave may be are next player???



WV:



AVN:



SAL:



CON:



DIV:



SHEAR:



TENDENCY:


Quoting nishinigami:

I live in Braithwaite, and my neighbors have been warning me ever since the snow last year. 'The last time it snowed, we had Katrina the next year'. I was hopeing it was just an 'old wives tale'.

By the way, Be safe out there OZ.


I actually thought it was crazy until the news researched it. Lately that is all people around here talk about, but one thing is for sure, this year people seem to be prepared alot earlier than the in past.
It was a red sky this morning as the sun rose in Houston. Sun was hitting the tops of cumulous clouds lighting them up in sharp contrast to the ground below.

We have a "Front" coming through today that should bring us some much needed rain. No relief in temps but maybe some in humidity. I see the NHC will be watching this boundry as it stalls in the GOM.
Quoting P451:


WV:



AVN:



SAL:



CON:



DIV:



SHEAR:



TENDENCY:




thanks but can you try may not poting so many maps at one time i think 3 at a time on one post would work this find then you can do other 3 but not all at one time
2088. P451
Quoting stoormfury:
it appears that Bill has started the trck towards the NNW a lilttle ealier than was in the forecast, meanwhile the there is only weak 850mb vorticity with the wave near 11N 31W. The environment is becoming more conducive for development which will be slow to occur


I thought that too when viewing the long WV loop until I caught myself looking at the eroding left side of the storm - it causes you to think it's turning NNW but I'm not so sure it is. Watch the right side of the storm or just the eye: Seems NW to me. Maybe ever so slightly north of NW.

The african wave at 30W is looking pretty good and if it can keep persistent convection through the day it could be a yellow or even orange circle by tommorow.
2090. P451
Quoting Tazmanian:


thanks but can you try may not poting so many maps at one time i think 3 at a time on one post would work this find then you can do other 3 but not all at one time


What would that change though? Even if I put two consecutive posts with 3 maps each - you're still loading the six images at the same time. *shrugs*

They're tiny images to boot if that's the problem. I do my best to make sure of that. That post totals under 400K. Far below some of the 5MB to 7MB loops that are posted.

Have to go to work now aarrgg. Hope everyone has a good day!!!
good morning, Mishy!
2093. P451
It looks like Bill will continue on his way out to the Nova Scotia/Nowfoundland area. Perhaps Bill will give some wind and showers to the New England coast, pasrticularly the Cape Cod area and the coast of Maine.

And it looks like the next development will come from the circular-shaped blob near 12N/32W. It's been holding its convection quite well.
12Z Bill update, down to 100kt, up to 958 mb.

AL 03 2009082112 BEST 0 269N 658W 100 958 HU



NOTICE STATEMENT:

These files contain forecast guidance, along with position and intensity estimates of Tropical and Subtropical Cyclones. The data are provided "as-is" in a realtime automated fashion. Users are also cautioned that the data in these files are subject to frequent revisions and can differ from information issued in official NHC products.
2096. P451
6Z Spaghetti

2097. IKE
Quoting P451:
6Z Spaghetti



Looks like the USA is spared from Bill. System may go it's entire life without making landfall anywhere.


apparently, pics are not showing up.
2099. bmclee
Quoting WxLogic:


That's a good question... I believe it is auto-generated by their system.


The actual broadcast voice is synthetic - computer generated. Unique character combinations are frequently used to trigger the software to do something different than just generate dialog, such as keying transmitters, 'alert tones', etc.
Quoting IKE:


Looks like the USA is spared from Bill. System may go it's entire life without making landfall anywhere.


Latest SHIPS has it 4 km from land at 72 hrs. 48.3N 53.4W.
Blog Update
Reflector site for those at work, which includes Weather456, daily update.


Bill

Bill

AOI
2102. P451
Bill's Shear and Shear Tendency Maps - and SST






Quoting pearlandaggie:


apparently, pics are not showing up.


That site will not let you hotlink images or link to the image. You can only link to the main page.
92E has a T # of 2.0 now

21/1200 UTC 13.7N 133.0W T2.0/2.0 92E -- East Pacific
2105. Sting13
When do you guys think warnings will be issued for nova scotia? Sometime today? Getting pretty close.
2106. P451
Quoting IKE:


Looks like the USA is spared from Bill. System may go it's entire life without making landfall anywhere.


Do you think it might even miss a direct hit on the Maritimes?

It does continue to move east of it's forecast points.

It also appears to be heading under the intensity forecasts as well.
2103. weird...it used to work. i guess they got tired of hotlinking and changed their usage policy.
2108. P451
Quoting pearlandaggie:


apparently, pics are not showing up.


Quoting Sting13:
When do you guys think warnings will be issued for nova scotia? Sometime today? Getting pretty close.


Canadian Hurricane Centre still says too early for warnings.


Next AOI
2111. P451
Good Morning, Bill

Good morning

The Twave with persistent area of low pressure near 30W continues to look like a threat to develop. Quikscat this morning maintains this feature quite well and convection has improved significantly since I first started paying attention to this wave two days ago. In fact, on Wednesday there was virtually no convection with it at all.

It is a slow mover which will also work in it's favour.

2114. P451
Quoting Orcasystems:


Next AOI


It looks pretty healthy. I posted it's environment maps a few back.

Is this what the CMC develops here? Doesn't get it really going until the Islands. Another one pops up at the end of the loop.

Quoting pearlandaggie:
2103. weird...it used to work. i guess they got tired of hotlinking and changed their usage policy.


I can see more and more sites doing that, since the hotlinking uses up bandwidth. One of the FSU sites (AC Evens I think) also will not allow hotlinking.
2115. thanks for that info. i did not know that.....
Kman even the wave after it looks impressive. Looks like another train of disturbances coming off the coast of africa
Thanks P451 ,I was looking for wave heights for New Jersey.:)


Quoting P451:
00Z CMC



06Z GFS



WAVE MODEL

Quoting P451:
00Z CMC



06Z GFS



WAVE MODEL

Quoting stoormfury:
Kman even the wave after it looks impressive. Looks like another train of disturbances coming off the coast of africa


True, but the wave behind it does not have much in the way of vorticity whereas the one near 30 shows up nicely on the 850 mb vorticity map for the area off the coast of Africa
Bill looks ragged and weaker this morning...
An interesting little bugger at 30W. Convection has increased, and it does have some 850 mb vorticity. If current trends continue, The NHC should mention it at 2.
Quoting AllStar17:
Bill looks ragged and weaker this morning...
An interesting little bugger at 30W. Convection has increased, and it does have some 850 mb vorticity. If current trends continue, The NHC should mention it at 2.


Could go "yellow" soon IMO
Cyclone Oz Update.

Just got off the phone with him and he reports that he has got the the Xtrememe Cam up and running from his hotel room in Bermuda. He'll be out all day gathering HD footage so the webcam is a static shot with an audio feed from their local weather office. Check it out at:

Xtremehurricanes.com

I will have a blog update a little later, and a graphics update in a few minutes.
That's all I have time for this morning but will check in later to see how things are progressing.

Have a nice morning everyone.
Quoting kmanislander:


Could go "yellow" soon IMO


That is my thinking as well, kman. Also looks like this will mostly go W to WNW because it would appear the trough would not pick this one up.
2127. rxse7en
Good morning all. Any fellow Floridians check out the surf this morning?
Quoting kmanislander:
That's all I have time for this morning but will check in later to see how things are progressing.

Have a nice morning everyone.


Thanks for the update, have a great day!
2129. NEwxguy
Most of my concerns here in new england have quieted down,although it looks like a lot of beaches may close this weekend.
2130. P451
Quoting interested:
Thanks P451 ,I was looking for wave heights for New Jersey.:)




No problem.

Check this site:

SwellInfo
Quoting rxse7en:
Good morning all. Any fellow Floridians check out the surf this morning?


Flat as a pancake here in Jupiter

Quoting AllStar17:


That is my thinking as well, kman. Also looks like this will mostly go W to WNW because it would appear the trough would not pick this one up.

Well it's already at 12N, your telling me this wouldn't go out to sea?
2133. P451
Quoting NEwxguy:
Most of my concerns here in new england have quieted down,although it looks like a lot of beaches may close this weekend.


Quite likely. I went to the beach here in Jersey yesterday and the ocean behavior changed dramatically as the day went on. The rip tides already started and the undertow got very strong as the day went on. Will only get worse. We will be reading of the drownings of the foolish I'm afraid.
Outlook on the Atlantic wave from Crown Weather...

I will be closely monitoring a tropical wave over the eastern Atlantic near 29 West Longitude this weekend as quite a few of the computer forecast models indicate that tropical cyclone development may occur east of the Bahamas around the middle to later part of next week. What is interesting is that the GFDL model which was run on Hurricane Bill was able to pick up on this possible development in 5 days. So, currently wind shear is running at around 10 knots around this system, however, it is expected to encounter stronger shear late this weekend into early next week. I agree with the overall model guidance and I think the best chance for development will be in the western Atlantic east of the Bahamas. This is hinted by the GFS model and strongly hinted at by the European, UKMET and Canadian model. I still think that the Canadian model is developing this system too early and too strongly and it will be discounted. That said, the consistency of the European, UKMET and Canadian models in developing a tropical system in about 5 to 7 days east of the Bahamas near 70 West Longitude should not be ignored and I would say it is something we really will have to keep a close eye on once we get into next week.

Quoting P451:


It looks pretty healthy. I posted it's environment maps a few back.

Is this what the CMC develops here? Doesn't get it really going until the Islands. Another one pops up at the end of the loop.




Seeing some buzz about a possible disturbance approaching SFL next weekend.
HURRICANE BILL 8 am Intermediate Advisory:
Quoting Funkadelic:

Well it's already at 12N, your telling me this wouldn't go out to sea?


12N is not that far north. Plus, this storm is still weak and heading westward.
Morning all. The waves just coming off the coast of Africa, by all accounts thus far, look like our next areas to watch very close. My question is: is it too early to forecast out the path these may take in relation to the Bermuda High disposition, as well as other atmospheric conditions?

Thanks in advance
long period swells starting to approach the Fl East Coast. Surf will peak tomorrow afternoon at around 10'. Rip current danger is super-high so stay out of the water.
Quoting Herbertsbox:
Morning all. The waves just coming off the coast of Africa, by all accounts thus far, look like our next areas to watch very close. My question is: is it too early to forecast out the path these may take in relation to the Bermuda High disposition, as well as other atmospheric conditions?

Thanks in advance


Yes....it is too early to tell where it is going to go.
Quoting Herbertsbox:
Morning all. The waves just coming off the coast of Africa, by all accounts thus far, look like our next areas to watch very close. My question is: is it too early to forecast out the path these may take in relation to the Bermuda High disposition, as well as other atmospheric conditions?

Thanks in advance


See post 2134 - If this holds true and it does not develop until it gets pretty far west, then it will have more potential to be a threat. Just have to wait and see.
Quoting AllStar17:


12N is not that far north. Plus, this storm is still weak and heading westward.



A lot will depend on what happens with this stalled front. If something develops in the GOM it would most likely amplify the trough and keep the B/A High weak.
I bookmarked it.Heading down the the Jersey shore tom. to check on our place.Gotta run.Again thanks :)


Quoting P451:


No problem.

Check this site:

SwellInfo
Quoting TheCaneWhisperer:



A lot will depend on what happens with this stalled front. If something develops in the GOM it would most likely amplify the trough and keep the B/A High weak.


What would develop in the GOM???
Preliminary Extended Forecast Discussion

POSSIBLE GULF COAST SHOWERS AND STRONGER COMNVECTION MAY BE
TRIGGERED BY A POTENTIAL RESIDUAL MID LEVEL LOW THAT MAY BREAK OFF
FROM THE MEAN ERN CONUS TROF WED-THURS. EWD A TROPICAL WAVE
CURRENTLY SW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS MAY APPROACH THE BAHAMAS
THURSDAY WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLY REACHING FL BY FRIDAY
. CMC CONTS TO
BE VERY AGRESSIVE WITH THIS WAVE WHILE ECMWF ENSEMBLES SHOW A
STRONG CLUSTERING OF LOWS IN THIS REGION LATE WEEK. CHI VERTICAL
VELOCITY POTENTIAL CHARTS STRONGLY FAVOR THE TROPICAL EPAC FOR
DEVELOPMENT THIS PERIOD WITH SOME LESSER BUT STILL FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS OVER THE CARRIBEAN/GLFMEX AND BAHAMAS REGION.
2147. IKE
Quoting P451:


Do you think it might even miss a direct hit on the Maritimes?

It does continue to move east of it's forecast points.

It also appears to be heading under the intensity forecasts as well.


Looks unlikely based on the latest models.
Quoting AllStar17:


What would develop in the GOM???


Stalled front in the GOM in August, need I say more. Trough split possible.
2149. P451


One Eyed Willie is a bit lopsided again.
So with the giant front coming off the eastern seaboard of the US, as well as Hurricane Bill plowing up through the Atlantic, will these conditions help remove some of the heat/humidity/air quality problems in the NE US? It's pretty gross here!

I picture Bill as being like a giant "Scrubbing Bubbles" sponge or something, heh.
Looks less & less likely that Halifax will get a direct hit from Bill - which is great news. However, bad news is Cape Breton Island is still in line for a direct hit. My family lives there and will be just east of the storm. Hopefully Bill weakens significantly before he lands.
I am surprised that the normal high tide is only about 3-4 feet. High tide will add about 3-4 feet above storm surge. Of course you have that wave action on top.

Bermuda Tidal Times - St. George's Island August 2009
Latitude: 32°23' N, Longitude: 64°42'W.

Times and heights of high and low waters (time| meters / feet). 1 meter = 3.28 feet.

21
03:49| 0.2/ 0.7
09:51| 1.2/ 3.9
16:06| 0.2/ 0.7
22:15| 1.3/ 4.3

22
04:35| 0.2/ 0.7
10:39| 1.2/ 3.9
16:58| 0.2/ 0.7
23:01| 1.2/ 3.9
2153. WxLogic
Quoting iamcanadian:
Looks less & less likely that Halifax will get a direct hit from Bill - which is great news. However, bad news is Cape Breton Island is still in line for a direct hit. My family lives there and will be just east of the storm. Hopefully Bill weakens significantly before he lands.


It should... that's for sure as it will encountering cooler waters and it will only be able to rely on energy transfer from the trough and becoming more like a extratropical type system.
2154. NEwxguy
With Bill's passage and the front on Sunday,all this heat and humidity will be swept out to sea,next week in the northeast its going to be seasonable,dry and beautiful.
NW flow for the forseeable future.
On the way to Mother England - click on graphic for larger view

Quoting pearlandaggie:


Love this view!
hey guys any news on the wave that is supposed to exit africa
2158. P451
Quoting violetprofusion:
So with the giant front coming off the eastern seaboard of the US, as well as Hurricane Bill plowing up through the Atlantic, will these conditions help remove some of the heat/humidity/air quality problems in the NE US? It's pretty gross here!

I picture Bill as being like a giant "Scrubbing Bubbles" sponge or something, heh.


Absolutely. It appears it will still be pretty warm but the air quality is going to greatly improve.

Good Morning. That wave at 30W does look interesting and the model run posted by P451 seems to show a possible path similar to Bill. However, Bill blossomed in the mid-Atlantic so development closer to the Islands would take it a bit more Westward in terms of possible trajectory. Too far out to tell whether it will develop or not but sheer currently remains low if it can stay below 13N on the way towards the Islands....Need to keep an eye on it.
Quoting Funkadelic:

Well it's already at 12N, your telling me this wouldn't go out to sea?


It will. I think these are the two that GFS is picking up on and sending both out to sea.
2161. edmac
I have a question for anyone out there, IF Bill made to Nova Scotia, how strong would he most likely be at landfall, I know that more than likely he will turn more NE by then, but with the cooler water temps. it doesnt seem like it could be that strong.
2163. P451
Bermuda getting it's first rain.

Blog very quiet considering we have a major hurricane out there....that IS impacting the US, in terms of rip currents and large waves.
Quoting P451:
Bermuda getting it's first rain.



That is a solid shield of rain.
Looks like the pros nailed this one.

Pros vs Joes
Pros 1
Joes 0

---
What is that at about 12N and 32W? Looks like a possible D storm later?
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
Good Morning. That wave at 30W does look interesting and the model run posted by P451 seems to show a possible path similar to Bill. However, Bill blossomed in the mid-Atlantic so development closer to the Islands would take it a bit more Westward in terms of possible trajectory. Too far out to tell whether it will develop or not but sheer currently remains low if it can stay below 13N on the way towards the Islands....Need to keep an eye on it.
Surface map shows 1006mb low over Africa as well ..something to watch...
Quoting canehater1:
Surface map shows 1006mb low over Africa as well ..something to watch...


It is that time of the year over the next 2-3 weeks.... :)
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
Good Morning. That wave at 30W does look interesting and the model run posted by P451 seems to show a possible path similar to Bill. However, Bill blossomed in the mid-Atlantic so development closer to the Islands would take it a bit more Westward in terms of possible trajectory. Too far out to tell whether it will develop or not but sheer currently remains low if it can stay below 13N on the way towards the Islands....Need to keep an eye on it.


On behalf of JFVWS: So...You're saying it's definitely gonna hit SEFLA as a category 5?
2170. P451
Recon on it's way to Bill.

Wow, if the rainfall is already that far away and that solid, that storm is no joke.

That's a true Ike/Katrina type storm: really large windfield and rainfall area.
2172. P451
Quoting presslord:


On behalf of JFVWS: So...You're saying it's definitely gonna hit SEFLA as a category 5?


Nope, the Carolinas.


*runs*
Quoting presslord:


On behalf of JFVWS: So...You're saying it's definitely gonna hit SEFLA as a category 5?

rofl! what a way to start my morning - always a good laugh Press!

Morning all.
Quoting P451:
Recon on it's way to Bill.


CIMSS has switched off the weakening flag, after a day of steady declines, and the ADT model shows some modest strengthening. It'll be good to get some actual data from the storm.
Quoting P451:


Nope, the Carolinas.


*runs*


you'd better run...
2176. WxLogic
Quoting presslord:


On behalf of JFVWS: So...You're saying it's definitely gonna hit SEFLA as a category 5?


Becareful... he might be wishcasted into the Blog... hehe...
2177. SQUAWK
Quoting presslord:


On behalf of JFVWS: So...You're saying it's definitely gonna hit SEFLA as a category 5?


No Press, most likely to hit the Carolinas!(Not running!!
2178. P451
Quoting AllStar17:
Blog very quiet considering we have a major hurricane out there....that IS impacting the US, in terms of rip currents and large waves.


Dont worry if the Cape Verde wave gets declared Yellow this place will explode with the usual "Carribean or GOM or SFLA Cat5 Potential" crew.

:D

Quoting P451:


Nope, the Carolinas.


*runs*

North or South? They are separate states you know. :)
Wow, slow morning! Does anyone know how close Bill's eye is supposed to pass to Bermuda? Are they likely to get TS force winds, or just rain and waves? In local news, I saw the most beautiful rain clouds/sunrise in SE Texas this morning, which is a good way to make up for the 111 heat index we should have this afternoon. Blech!
2181. P451
Quoting watcher123:
Wow, if the rainfall is already that far away and that solid, that storm is no joke.

That's a true Ike/Katrina type storm: really large windfield and rainfall area.



That rain shield is from the blob north and away from the core of the storm.



I'm not so certain they'll actually get rain from the core itself. It also doesn't really have outer rain bands that stretch far and away from the core.

It will be an interesting radar to watch. I'm sure they're going to get squally weather with that shield.

2182. SQUAWK
Quoting hurricanehanna:

North or South? They are separate states you know. :)


bofum
2183. hydrus
Quoting Weather456:


I'm actually more afraid that my car insurance might expire before I can pay.
lol..
2184. P451
Quoting hurricanehanna:

North or South? They are separate states you know. :)


When did this happen? I refuse to believe it.

There is one coastline and it is the Carolina coastline. All other coastlines are inferior.

Anyone who disagrees has to answer to Presslord.

Quoting CloudGatherer:


CIMSS has switched off the weakening flag, after a day of steady declines, and the ADT model shows some modest strengthening. It'll be good to get some actual data from the storm.


Satellite appearance would indicate a Cat 2.
Quoting SQUAWK:


bofum


Big ol' fat ugly mother?
2187. DR1791
Quoting watcher123:
Looks like the pros nailed this one.

Pros vs Joes
Pros 1
Joes 0

---
What is that at about 12N and 32W? Looks like a possible D storm later?


lol.. Pros are wrong most of the time to!
2188. WxLogic
I've find it interesting how the blog works... depending on the region where a tropical disturbance might affect... you see different "swat" teams... in which basically if the SE is to be affected the the FL crew coming on board... if the C GOM is targeted then the LA crew jumps in... etc... I find it quite an interesting and amusing behavior. Keep in mind that posting a lot tends to drain you even though you're not doing no physical activity... just a lot of mental work (sometimes)... lol.
Quoting presslord:


On behalf of JFVWS: So...You're saying it's definitely gonna hit SEFLA as a category 5?

ROFL . Made my morning! Thanks press
Cape Verde Live Cam

Shown below is a still shot, for Live Cam go to the link above.

16°54′00″N 24°59′00″W - Mindelo Harbor, (North side of Sao Vincete, Cape Verde)


2191. SQUAWK
Quoting presslord:


Big ol' fat ugly mother?


Thats Carolina for "both of them," but you knew that already, didn't you!!
Quoting SQUAWK:


Thats Carolina for "both of them," but you knew that already, didn't you!!



Ah! Of course!!! Bofe-uv-'em...Both of them...perfect...
Quoting P451:


When did this happen? I refuse to believe it.

There is one coastline and it is the Carolina coastline. All other coastlines are inferior.

Anyone who disagrees has to answer to Presslord.


Nope - need to distinguish between North and South Caroline as Press has said many many times.....it's not "the Carolinas"....but it is a beautiful coastline!
Thanks all. Much to learn, but willing to put in the time.

BTW, can anyone recommend any good books to firmly grasp some basic fundamentals of meteorology?
Quoting presslord:


Big ol' fat ugly mother?

STOP IT! rofl...I now have coffee on the computer monitor! :)
2196. P451
MIMIC-TPW - Bill

2197. breald
Quoting hurricanehanna:

North or South? They are separate states you know. :)


In more ways than just their name...LOL.
Quoting Herbertsbox:
Thanks all. Much to learn, but willing to put in the time.

BTW, can anyone recommend any good books to firmly grasp some basic fundamentals of meteorology?



I think your best place to start would be AMS journals. All editions up to 2003 (I believe) are free on the internet and contain a wealth of research information.
2199. stormno
just wanted to remind everyone about my forecast when i came on the other day i said the only land mass to be affected by bill would be bermuda and i got laughed at...you people in here dont want the reliable information you want to listen to those wishcasters...well it turns out i wil hit this on the nose as usual...STORMTOP knows what hes taling about mucho experience..the east coast will not get anything from bill...bil is getting ready to hang a sharp right today and it will take him out to sea...eniugh about bill he isnt a threat to the us im watching something that could be very dangerous to the gulf states late next week..i will keep you informed of this potenetial dangerous situation that is developing...this has been a bulletin from the STORMTOPS WEATHER OFFICE...Stormno
Quoting WxLogic:
I've find it interesting how the blog works... depending on the region where a tropical disturbance might affect... you see different "swat" teams... in which basically if the SE is to be affected the the FL crew coming on board... if the C GOM is targeted then the LA crew jumps in... etc... I find it quite an interesting and amusing behavior. Keep in mind that posting a lot tends to drain you even though you're not doing no physical activity... just a lot of mental work (sometimes)... lol.


Those are the "only if it's coming here", "ones that want it to come there" and "the morons that get their jollies picking the behavior".

It's kind of like a hurricane coming through the blog, ironic.
2201. P451
MODIS peeks in on the new CV-AOI

Quoting WxLogic:
I've find it interesting how the blog works... depending on the region where a tropical disturbance might affect... you see different "swat" teams... in which basically if the SE is to be affected the the FL crew coming on board... if the C GOM is targeted then the LA crew jumps in... etc... I find it quite an interesting and amusing behavior. Keep in mind that posting a lot tends to drain you even though you're not doing no physical activity... just a lot of mental work (sometimes)... lol.

GOM S.W.A.T. here! Always ready with the cold beer and Zatarains!
GOES-East will be in Rapid Scan Operations mode today. Increased frequency of images are available at the NASA GHCC site.

Bill GHCC loop
2204. IKE
NEW BLOG!
Quoting DR1791:


lol.. Pros are wrong most of the time to!


Yeah I know, they just change their cone every 6 hours so it usually isn't noticed.
Thank you Sullivan. Look forward to the guide.
2207. Grothar
Anyone, Anyone.

Just lurking this morning and trying to catch up. There was mention of a system possibly developing off the Bahamas next week and the obvious feature emerging off the coast of Africa. Question: Are these two separate systems they are mentioning in the blog, or is it the wave that if off of Africa.
Morning all...

Hoping for some wisdom here. I live in southern costal Maine, yet every local forecaster (don't even get me started on these nimrods... my cats could make more accurate forecasts) are predicting no wave action, little to no wind, and "some" rain? Really?

Given the monster that will be wandering past off shore, and assuming the NHC projected track... this can't possiblely be correct, can it? Coastal Maine gets nothing but worthless piles of Home Depot receipts and throngs of confused French Canadians?

Not hoping for the wrath of god.... just befuddled by the reporting of lack of any weather action.

And um... GO SOX.
g/m all...i'm a daily reader of the blogs here and enjoy all the info e1 has to share.
I esp like cajunmoma and nishinigami cause I can tell ya both from LA. (Gretna, LA here)
2210. divdog
Quoting DR1791:


lol.. Pros are wrong most of the time to!
pros are right most of the time especially the nhc
the weather network says bill will make landfall in nova scotia on sunday as a category 1 or 2