WunderBlog Archive » Category 6™

Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.

Bill Proenza gone; tropical update

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 8:35 PM GMT on July 09, 2007

With hurricane season fast approaching and internal strife threatening "the effective functioning of the National Hurricane Center", as stated in a letter signed by 23 of NHC's 49 employees, NOAA did the best thing by reassigning director Bill Proenza this afternoon. Conrad Lautenbacher, the head of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, announced Proenza has been placed on leave "until further notice."

The reassignment puts NHC deputy director Ed Rappaport, 49, into the director's hot seat. I greatly respect Dr. Rappaport, who has done a great job as deputy director and is a highly skilled hurricane forecaster. Dr. Rappaport has a Ph.D. in Atmospheric Sciences from Texas Tech. He began work in 1988 at NHC, and served as one NHC's Hurricane Specialists before becoming chief of the Technical Support Branch. He is the best choice for director of NHC. He had wide support to become director last year when Max Mayfield retired, but turned down the job due to family reasons.

Tropical update
There are no threat areas in the tropical Atlantic to discuss, and none of the computer models are forecasting tropical storm formation over the coming week. A cold front is expected to push off the U.S. East Coast by Sunday, and we will have to watch the waters off the North Carolina coast then for development when the front stalls out. In the Pacific, an exceptionally large Category 1 typhoon, Man-Yi, is expected to become a major typhoon, and will threaten Japan late this week.

Jeff Masters

Politics

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

that thing off the coast of the carolinas looks impressive, any one think it is worth watching? not like it will hit land, but...
1002. Drakoen
no trpoicnerd read StormW blog also check the buoy. The pressure at the surface is relatively high. Any lowering is becuase of the dinural phase.
1000
i think that the blog and the tropics are telling us to get off the computer and go outside. i know how to get most of you to do that, or at least it worked last night.guess what? its time for the cruising weather update! dont forget to pack some head on for the cruise we are subliminally forcing you to go on, considering the weather is great!!!
head on apply directly to the forehead.
Good Morning Man-Yi! Time to become a big powerful super typhoon!

Link
1006. Drakoen
DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
10/1433 UTC 13.9N 135.4E T4.5/4.5 MAN-YI
1007. Drakoen
Looks like its gonna hit Japan. May even affect places like tokyo.
thanks weathersp. did you look at the waves north, east, and northeast of man yi? they look pretty good.
1009. Drakoen
Trying to pop out an eye.
Too early in the season for development that far north. Too much mid latitude fronts/cool sst.s close by. If one forms east of Fl now nc would have something to watch. This is just a mid lattitude fish/bermuda blob. Watch the stationary front that ends up in the gulf this weekend.
1011. Drakoen
Monster Man-Yi
1012. CJ5
Just a little tidbit; since 1995 there have been 9 "above normal" seasons, 1 "below normal" (97) and 2 "near-normal" season.

You can take that two ways 1) Things are above normal and likely to continue or 2) its time for below-normal season.

Link
yeah drak. it sure sucks to be asia right now.
1015. Drakoen
the current forecast track has it right near Tokyo. This is gonna be a big thing for Japan considering it is Tokyo.
1016. Drakoen
Posted By: JoshNHurricanes at 9:04 PM GMT on July 10, 2007.

Hey drakoen hows your day?, im not so sure what the MJO is but if it is here the 12th then doesent that mean we can start seeing systems forming?


I am good. The MJO its already here in a weak state. Basically the mositure content increase therefore allowing more favorable conditions for development as far as moisture goes.
I'm glad they don't get that big here(usually). Thats gonna be a long ride for someone.
i think it needs a little more cloud coverage to the north...
Is it my imagination or are the waves that are between 30W and 50 W holding together better than the previous ones?? Not saying they will make it, but could be a trend?
1020. Drakoen
hey drak that isnt the cone of uncertainty, that is the cone of you're gonna get $cr#w#d!
1022. Drakoen
Posted By: groundman at 9:08 PM GMT on July 10, 2007.

Is it my imagination or are the waves that are between 30W and 50 W holding together better than the previous ones?? Not saying they will make it, but could be a trend?


It is the ITCZ. so the moisture is increased by that. Waveshave a more moist environment when the head to the south then west. The SAL is still there to the north, but i expect that to change once the MJO gets over there.
1023. Drakoen
Yes that means that if you are in the cone you are at risk. Sometime the cone can change dramatically like Ernesto and sometimes it is doesn't move much like Wilma.
yeah groundman, i have noticed that too. maybe the people that said 96l cleared the way for others were right.
Very little activity last year+Positive mdo+enso neuutral= likely bad season. I never was much good at math though.
i know what you mean, drak, im just saying that if the cone is over you, that storm is so big no matter which way it goes you are $cr#w#d.
hey drak, what size is that image?
1029. eye
there is alot of....shocking....dry air to the N of that thing, thus why there isnt much convection toward the N.
1030. Drakoen
Posted By: JoshNHurricanes at 9:17 PM GMT on July 10, 2007.

so we could possibly see some development within the next couple days?


i don't think so maybe next week...
Big storms often have a mind of their own. They can steer everything around them or steer themselves. Katrina comes to mind. Mitch 1998 too. They both went south when they were supposed to go west or north.
Don't get your hopes up until AUGUST.
Just a little tidbit; since 1995 there have been 9 "above normal" seasons, 1 "below normal" (97) and 1 "near-normal" season.

You can take that two ways 1) Things are above normal and likely to continue or 2) its time for below-normal season.


The former is much, much more likely this year; 1997 had the strongest El Nino on record.
drak, do you think you could post one of those pictures of the burmuda high over florida? that is very interesting. could a storm be pulled around it and curve back into the gulf like that one ivan?
which one was near normal? 2006 or 2004?
Hey groundman, these waves will probably be parading across the Carribean & SW Atlantic in about three weeks. The "real" season starts Aug 1. June & July are kinda like the "preseason". Early on various agencies were predicting gloom & doom. Recently UKMET said another dud of a season. I don't see a repeat of either 2005 or 2006. Every season has its own identity. 2004 was different from 2005 which was different from 2006.

Dr. Masters will probably give his 2-week forcaste by Monday, July 16th. It will be interesting to see how the A/B high looks at that time.
Posted By: Drakoen at 9:18 PM GMT on July 10, 2007.
Posted By: JoshNHurricanes at 9:17 PM GMT on July 10, 2007.

so we could possibly see some development within the next couple days?

i don't think so maybe next week...


By next week we will be hitting lips with fingers sideways going bbbbbbbbbbbbb. LOL By August we may be stark raving mad, I think it's the two storms early, we were spoiled very very fast.
1989 was a terrible year for galveston...
Posted By: GainesvilleGator at 9:26 PM GMT on July 10, 2007.
........................... I don't see a repeat of either 2005 or 2006. Every season has its own identity. 2004 was different from 2005 which was different from 2006..........................




I think you are right about the uniqueness of this season. I'm human and impaitient though.

As a sidelight a friend of mine went swimming yesterday with a air raft in the gulf, she said the water was just like a warm bath.
Time to up his PROZAC. If he ever tangles with a big storm he'll need it.
1041. Michale
Well, the strife at the NHC sure makes one thing perfectly clear..

Don't rock the boat, even if it is in public safety's interest..

I would still like to know why the NOAA let QuickSCAT get so bad, but yet spent a couple million on an office party??


Michale.....
this is what i was talking about.
hurricane ivan
Three weeks ago I predicted that Chantal would be born on July 14th. Looks like I was quite wrong. I'm now moving Chantal out until August 6th.

Still waiting for wind shear to calm down. Also, African Dust and dry air across the Atlantic is still prevelant.
1044. Jedkins
Man-yi is like a sumo wrestler, LOL.



Reminds me a lot of ole hurricane frances that pummeled Florida for 3 days due to its massive circulation. It came very close to us actually, we had litereally 2 days straight of tropical storm force winds and heavy bands of rain that pounded us. Dumped almost 20 inches of rain here, ripped roofs off mobile homes downed tons of wires and flooded raodways and swelled drainage ditches past their banks.



Eccept Man-yi is even bigger, reminds me of typhoon tip, not quite that big, but its darn big enough.
This year has been the same way 4 much of Texas, just didn't have a name this time. Weaker tropical systems(in my experiences)
more rain than the stronger ones. Irene 1999
was a wet one, Ivan seemed like a "dry one" So did Andrew.
that makes no sense to me either michale.
I Remember it quite well. UP CLOSE AND PERSONAL!
1048. Drakoen
1049. CJ5
Posted By: Tropicnerd13 at 9:26 PM GMT on July 10, 2007.
which one was near normal? 2006 or 2004?


06 and 02...I missed one, corrected.
TWC said Man-yi is roughly the size of the GOM. Thats big.
1051. Jedkins
Posted By: Ivansurvivr at 9:40 PM GMT on July 10, 2007.

This year has been the same way 4 much of Texas, just didn't have a name this time. Weaker tropical systems(in my experiences)
more rain than the stronger ones. Irene 1999
was a wet one, Ivan seemed like a "dry one" So did Andrew.




It just seems that way because the windsa and surge take all the attention, but Ivan produced plenty of rain, as for Andrew well, was too small and moved very fast, if it was larger and smallr moving it would have allowed its torrents to build up.





See the reason why is more organized hurreicanes typically moved faster, and about half of hurricanes that become strong also shrinks, which lessens their potential to accumulate lots of rain.


However, the intensity of the storms rain actually does increase as it gets stronger.



As I already mentioned, the surge and winds take the attention as hurricanes get strong.




Oh and another big thingas hurricane winds get very intense, rain guages cannot efficiently or accurately collect how much rain falls due to rain spraying sideways and blowing in odd directions with the wind as it richochets of buildings and other strcutures. As a result, more rain can easily fall then actually reported in a hurricane as it attains higher entensities


Hope that explains it for ya.
Michale:GOVERNMENT.
I realize that, but in experience it still seems strange. In Ivan it seemed the rain(and everything else) was going up instead of down.Ivan was quite large and strong. Being so close to the center most of the water in the air was salt. The falling rain likely landed elsewhere.
1054. Jedkins
sorry bout any typos lol
oh, the ivan thing wasnt for the texas part. i was talking about the bermuda high and if it could do that this year. does that sound feasable?
1989
it rained quite a bit during katrina
1057. Drakoen
I don't think the BH is gonna be that far east.
if you guys are bored with the blog go to the hurricane archives. they are very interesting.
1060. RL3AO
This is Man-yi in the Atlantic. The scale is very very close.

1
1061. Michale
@Ivansurvivr

Yea, I know..

But that shouldn't be any excuse..

It's apparent that Proenza's statements were a tad excessive.. But, I have yet to hear ANYONE contradict that there would NOT be an detriment to the QuickSCAT going down.

Perhaps TPTB at NOAA should have been less concerned about their office party and more concerned about providing funding that would give the NHC *ALL* the tools needed for hurricane prediction.

NOAA is definitely in the wrong in all of this..

It's a shame that an honorable man had to be the scapegoat for the failings of lesser people...


Michale.....
drak, is that accurate? the pictures WAY up above show the bermuda high closer to florida and the carolinas. in yours, it is closer to bermuda, itself. also, in yours, it shows a low off of africa about to enter the ocean. seems like something to watch. is that the crab we were tracking last night?
1063. Jedkins
Posted By: Ivansurvivr at 9:50 PM GMT on July 10, 2007.

I realize that, but in experience it still seems strange. In Ivan it seemed the rain was going up instead of down.




It can appear that way, overall the rain all gets back to the ground, but its so chaotic in a stroger hurricane, you can't compare and say it doesn't rain as much because the powerful winds create oddities that effect rain guage accumulation very largely as well as how heavy it appears.

It also depends on your location.


Tropical weather is very complicated, rainfall in tropical systems is very hard to accurately measure. Doppler radar also has trouble when convection gets extremely tropical or with a tropical cyclone.
By the time Ivan made that loop it was a weak low level circulation. It only regenerated slightly in the gulf 2nd time. It was was still unnerving being in P'cola in the aftermath and hearing (only by word of mouth)
it was back in the gulf again.
looks smaller than i thought.
Michale-Are you an employee of nhc of noaa?
its pretty much the size of the caribbean! thanks for that image its great to be able to put it into perspective this way... watching it on our turf and getting a grip on how massive it is...
1069. Drakoen
Posted By: Tropicnerd13 at 9:58 PM GMT on July 10, 2007.

drak, is that accurate? the pictures WAY up above show the bermuda high closer to florida and the carolinas. in yours, it is closer to bermuda, itself. also, in yours, it shows a low off of africa about to enter the ocean. seems like something to watch. is that the crab we were tracking last night?


Yes. The high is near Florida. And should park it self there for a while according to the European model. waves always come of Africa. The GFS 18z has a 1012mb low near associated with a tropical wave.
could someone post the shear maps or a link to where i could get them and how they will be in the comming days/weeks
I tasted ivan's rain. It was very salty. I was not far from the bay,though.
sorry bout any typos lol
As a former English teacher I notice such things, and certainly don't want to interrupt anyone's flow, but this is an opportune time to point out the "modify" key available for editing one's posts.
1073. Drakoen
Don Noe just talked about the bermuda high and it is over Florida. He says it has established it self though all the levels.
Man-Yi is now finally starting to close up its convective centre on its polar side.

Should be interesting now as the core will become insulated from drier air that has been intruding from the north and inhibiting development.


Japan (as well as Taiwan and S.Korea) should start making preparations now.

Even if this storm does not intensify greatly, the massive size of it alone will create upon any possible landfall a very large surge area and pose an extreme flood risk from the extensive associated rainbands.
RL3AO: Impressive. Is Man-yi also as far from land as in this picture?
1076. Drakoen
hey ivansurvivr, do you remember the great galveston hurricane of 1900? how did it strengthen back in to a hurricane on land?
ggh
1078. Drakoen
Its a typhoon now. It looks like it maybe be forming what appears to be a small eye.
drak, is that accurate? the pictures WAY up above show the bermuda high closer to florida and the carolinas. in yours, it is closer to bermuda,

I think the pictures that you are referring to are the steering current maps; the Bermuda High that actually steers storms is NOT the high you see on surface maps (unless it is a very weak storm or disturbance, the surface high also drives the trade winds); the high is displaced up to several thousand miles to the southwest in the upper levels and it is the upper levels that are more important as far as steering currents go (stronger storms are also affected by progressively higher level winds).
1080. Drakoen
truly an impressive storm. Lets hope we don't see one of these lol. Alot of land would be affected vertically and horizontally because of the size.
2 P.M. UPDATE:
TROPICAL WAVE IS ADJUSTED AHEAD ALONG 51W/52W S OF 20N MOVING W 15-20 KT. THERE WERE A FEW DATA SOURCES WHICH SUPPORT THIS UPDATED PSN. PROBABLY THE CLEAREST SIGNAL IS THE PATCHES OF
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WHICH FORM AN INVERTED V-SHAPE FROM 7N-12N BETWEEN 50W-58W. SECONDLY...AN ANALYSIS OF A LONG-TERM SATELLITE LOOP AND DERIVED MOISTURE FIELDS SUGGEST THAT THE WAVE WAS MOVING FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT AND MESH UP WELL WITH THE CURRENT CONVECTIVE WEATHER. THIRD...A PAIR OF BUOYS JUST TO THE W OF THE ANALYZED PSN SHOW A MORE NLY COMPONENT TO THE SFC FLOW IN REGARDS TO THE TYPICAL LARGE SCALE NELY REGIME. THIS WAVE MAY BRING AN INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY
TO THE WINDWARD ISLANDS TOMORROW.
This is the wave some of us noticed this morning. I haven't checked the archives to see if it was discussed here today.
Seabreeze convection is going west every day. No more rain for the sfl east coast for a while. High is locked in. Usually once it sets up like this in July, It doesn't move much. The steering high(mid-upper level) sends those nice cooling anvil heads off the seabreeze storms if it's east or south of us
drak, do you think it is worth watching?
im gone now. bye.
1087. Drakoen
Posted By: Tropicnerd13 at 10:13 PM GMT on July 10, 2007.

drak, do you think it is worth watching?


If you are talking about Man Yi yes. Its impacts should be widespread. Cat 4-5 by the time its in Okinawa.
This map clearly shows that the high is centered over Florida in the upper levels (the arrows indicate the direction any storms would go, the top is for storms between 1010 and 1000 mb and the bottom for storms stronger than 940 mb; also notice that on the bottom map it is displaced to the SW of the top map as it shows higher levels):



Storm W...Nice blog. Easy to read. No typos! But you are assuming that this system stays southerly. 2 p.m. Update says it is taking a more northerly track (presumably into less shear).
1090. Drakoen
heres what i was talking about

The one at Lat 55.
A PAIR OF BUOYS JUST TO THE W OF THE ANALYZED PSN SHOW A MORE NLY COMPONENT TO THE SFC FLOW IN REGARDS TO THE TYPICAL LARGE SCALE NELY REGIME.
Drakoen, which map is right? STL's or yours? It's hard to tell with so many weather maps nowadays.
1094. Drakoen
Posted By: KoritheMan at 10:25 PM GMT on July 10, 2007.

Drakoen, which map is right? STL's or yours? It's hard to tell with so many weather maps nowadays


Both are we both posted the high affect at the surface with weak systems. He also posted the highs steering with stronger system 940mb lower..
is that the set up that wiil bring the storms into florida just like 04.
Could that little system at 65w in the Carib. be the 96 remenents.
1097. Jedkins
Posted By: Ivansurvivr at 10:04 PM GMT on July 10, 2007.

I tasted ivan's rain. It was very salty. I was not far from the bay,though.





Ya anytime powerfull thunderstorms come in off the gulf when its warm or we get a tropical cyclone, you can smell the salt water smell sometimes even in the house and the water gets salty. I live only 4 miles from Clearwater beach.
1099. IKE
Nothings gonna survive 60 knots of shear....the eastern Caribbean is closed for business.
Unfortunately, I was out of town back in 1900. News coverage wasn't as good as it is now! That being said there are several explanations why 1900 galveston regained h/status. Not as many reporting sations, It may have became a mid-lattitude type system and strengthened, Winds pick up easily on the plains of the midwest. I don't know why it restrengthened. I wonder if a storm could strengthen over the everglades. I believe Irene did in 1999. maybe Wilma too.
Carribean will open August 1st.
1102. Drakoen
you guys talking about this mess lol.
1103. Drakoen
Posted By: Ivansurvivr at 10:38 PM GMT on July 10, 2007.

Carribean will open August 1st
.

Climatologically speaking it should already be open...
1104. IKE
I'd keep an eye on that system between 30 and 35 W. I think that's the one the GFS gave a glimmer of hope for tropical development to after it gets to 40W.
1105. Drakoen
this vis shot makes it look like a Hurricane forming of the coast lol.
1106. IKE
The shear is terrible in the central/eastern Caribbean. I'm assuming it's the massive high building in...it should relax in a few days.
1107. Drakoen
Posted By: IKE at 10:40 PM GMT on July 10, 2007.

I'd keep an eye on that system between 30 and 35 W. I think that's the one the GFS gave a glimmer of hope for tropical development to after it gets to 40W.


yes thats what i mentioned with those two pics i posted on the page before this one. shows a 1012mb low associated with a wave.Lets see if the other models shows this so far the UKMET doesn't show anything- 48 hours out.
1108. IKE
I saw that on the GFS. It has run through 192 hours...that moisture goes west all the way to Florida in about 8 days.
Does anyone have a link to the story about the multi-million NOAA office party? I tried Googling to get some more information, but couldn't find anything. Thanks.
1110. Drakoen
192hours, you might as well look through a crystal ball. The low that it is showing is only a few says out 2-3 days.
1111. NRAamy
Posted By: AtsaFunnyToo at 3:45 PM PDT on July 10, 2007.

Does anyone have a link to the story about the multi-million NOAA office party? I tried Googling to get some more information, but couldn't find anything. Thanks


Atsa...you didn't get an invite either?

;)
Posted By: IKE at 10:40 PM GMT on July 10, 2007.
I'd keep an eye on that system between 30 and 35 W. I think that's the one the GFS gave a glimmer of hope for tropical development to after it gets to 40W.


That's the one I thought was hanging around better than the others.
1113. IKE
Posted By: Drakoen at 5:45 PM CDT on July 10, 2007.
192hours, you might as well look through a crystal ball. The low that it is showing is only a few says out 2-3 days.


I know...I was just following to see where it went. I'm not saying it's set in stone, just telling what it said.
Posted By: Randyman at 8:38 PM GMT on July 10, 2007.

We shouldn't see the MJO's full influence until the end of July...if everything goes as scheduled, we should see a repeat of 2004 with the Central Gulf Coasts, Southeast, and Eastern Seaboards being the areas that will be most affected by any potential storms...I seriously doubt that this season will be a repeat of 2006 like some have suggested...we shall see...


After further thought...Texas may be just as under the gun as anyone else, for any slight change in the synoptic pattern at the wrong time could result in some major drama; my gut feeling is that Texas may not be as lucky as it was in 2004...(plus the Spurs won the NBA Championship this year)...so bottomline, there is a limit on how far ahead we can forecast steering currents, regional/synoptic patterns of which dictates where a storm will ultimately landfall, so we can only speculate on where these storms will head beginning at the end of July...again, we shall see...
Not always and not that far south. I believe the sinking air either side the ICTZ settles the wind shear down as it moves north. As the waves riding the itcz shift north, Shear goes away..usually. It's just starting to do that now.
the only thing that should have been brought up in a discussion about funding should have been talk about how to technologically update the fleet of aging hurricane hunters and what planes would be of sound structure to be using in the research and prediction of tropical systems.
My thoughts on the location of the wave, wasn't there a large patch of dry air in that region that extended into the Caribbean and areas around south florida? It almost looks like that wave is doing the limbo around the patch of dry air and trying to get into the area that has some moist or tropical influences rather than the dry desert like air environment.
1118. GerryL
Michale said:

"It's apparent that Proenza's statements were a tad excessive.. But, I have yet to hear ANYONE contradict that there would NOT be an detriment to the QuickSCAT going down."

GerryL responds:

Perhaps you haven't read Dr. Masters blogs on this issue. He has stated, clearly, unequivocally and repeatedly, that the loss of the satelite will be a problem, just as all who love science and truth realize. However, he has also stated clearly that to distort the truth in order to effect a supposed desirable end is to create greater problems.

Science, true science, is about admitting truthfully and in a balanced way, what we don't know about a subject, as well as defending in the peer review area, what we claim to know. When a scientist, in a leadership position distorts the actual value of a data aqusition system, as Dr. Proenza did, for political purposes, it undermines the efforts of all who, literally, live or die, by the accuracy of the forcasts that data aqusition system feeds into.

Equally clear, the point was correctly made by Dr. Masters, and others, that it would be far better to replace the aging system with one that would enhance the ability to predict hurricane intensity forcasting, which is entirely possible, if we proceed carefully in order to ensure that the replacement satellite has capabilities that allow it to do that. A mad rush to "get a replacement up there" regardless of it's capabilities, because of false impressions about it capabilites and needs would in the long run hurt the cause of those dedicated scientists who are really seeking the truth and the ability to improve the science in the most needed areas. Dr. Proenza, as the leader in this key position demonstrated, repeatedly, his insensitivity to these issues, and did so in the face of kind, well meaning, and repeated input by his staff. Such leaders, by their own actions, disqualify themselves from positions of leadership.

Finally, when dealing with Congress, it is extremely important not to give the false impression that a tecnology, like the satelite system in question, is capable of replacing the Hurricane Hunter Aircraft program, something that "techno nuts", accompanied by "bean counters", are always trying to do, regardless of the beauracracy or context in question.

Hard data such as is available only through the dangerous, expensive process of flying into the eye of these storms and releasing data aquisition devices available no other way would be lost if the misapprehension were to be widely disseminated that the satelite in question was capable of the same, or "equivalent" data aquisition processes. It isn't.

These are the facts, and they have been laid out carefully by a number of folks, Dr. Masters included, so that rational minds can consider them carefully. This isn't about peoples ego's and careers and other selfish matters that seem to so engulf all we are involved in in this country and the world today.

It is about the truth, and doing the right thing, and the effects, be it monitary, or morbidity, or mortality of such on those millions of people, like myself, who live in those areas impacted by these storms.

I, for one, am very glad that Dr. Masters and his colleagues, had the courage and integrity to speak clearly and in a balanced way about this issue so that the science and the truth would prevail, which apparently, at least for the time being, it has.

May there be more of this type of courage, clarity, balance and perspective in the future is my hope.

GerryL
I have family in Houston. The have been warned. I know Texas is overdue for a big one. Unfortunately, anything heading for Texas(unless it forms close by) goes over the LOOP CURRENT. The L/C really makes tropical systems angry.
gottago.gettin hugry. have fun.
Man-yi is staring to clear the convection from the center and form an eye:

Latest RGB image:

none
Michael, it depends on what part of florida you are talking about. Though when Wilma made landfall she wasn't considered to be a serious storm in the way of damage on the west coast, she did make landfall in the Naples area as a major, but downgraded to a category 1 by the time she hit us in Broward. If the amount of damage that we saw down here was caused by a 1 I can not even imagine what a major storm would do here.

As for the Miami/Ft Lauderdale region, yes we are overdue for an east to westward moving major hurricane. In that form yes, we are due.
when was the last time you remember a major hurricane making landfall in ft lauderdale. Not brushing us and hitting the miami area, but actually making an east to westward landfall. Wilma came in from the west moving to the east, so technically she was not a major for us.
JP,
Big storms heading your way Cloud tops have reached 51000 feet in Central FL!
Michael,
Florida every year is in the cross hairs to get hit.
Hey, gang!

That purple looking shot of Man-yi by Stormchaser looks scary!!!

Hey, I'll be back later tonight. Out for awhile to night to see my daughter competing in evening gown!

Keep the doors closed at the Caribbean!
Yeah lol :)
1135. Patrap
snorrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrre....ZZZZZZzzzzzzzz
when was the last time tampa got hit by a major hurrican its been over 100 years
1138. Patrap
4-panel Zoom..WV

Link
still a long time ago well over do
when was the last time tampa got hit by a major hurrican its been over 100 years

1921
YAaaaaaaawnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnn..............
Posted By: weathersp at 3:20 PM EDT on July 10, 2007.

We're about to enter the peak of the hurricane season. Any day now, you're going to turn on the TV and see a weather person pointing to some radar blob out in the Atlantic Ocean and making two basic meteorological points:

(1) There is no need to panic.
(2) We could all be killed.

Yes, hurricane season is an exciting time to be in Florida. If you're new to the area, you're probably wondering what you need to do to prepare for the possibility that we'll get hit by "the big one."

Based on our experiences, we recommend that you follow this simple three-step hurricane preparedness plan:


ROTFLOL

SP, this really cracked me up. I am saving this for a rainy (ok hurricaney) day . . .
Zzzzzzzzzz!
ssssnnnnnoooooorrrre

/wifey poke

oh, sorry dear.

/rolls over
cant wait for the storms
1148. Michale
@GerryL

I actually have read Dr Masters blog faithfully in the past few years..

I disagree with his position that is against Dr Proenza.

Regardless of whether or not Dr Proenza quoted a "good" report of the QuickSCAT loss or a "bad" report, the fact still remains that while NOAA is throwing a million dollar + "office party", the QuickSCAT still needs replacing..

And THAT FACT simply won't go away by political "spin"...

Add to that, NOAA's preference to "kill the messenger rather than address the message and that adds up to TPTB over at NOAA playing politics and petty office bickering with our lives...

I live in Central FL and am in the crosshairs this year more so than average.. I applaude Dr Proenza's efforts to expose NOAA's playing of politics and ignoring public safety in favor of multi-million dollar "office parties"..

If there is a hurricane related disaster this year that results in loss of life, the blood will be directly on the hands of the NOAA...

I am sure you have read Senator Nelson (D-FL) letter to the NOAA on behalf of Dr Proenza and I support that to the hilt...


Michale.....
i dont rilly wont one to come here i just ment in general
1151. Patrap
TD 04E-4 and Man-yi latest guidance and Vis

Link
yes i was in key west when willma came through and it was scarry 120mph wind gust
1153. Patrap
Satelitte Pic of Mt. St Helens Eruption 36 minutes after the explosion. The ring is the shock wave evolving thru the stratosphere..


7
I would appreciate the 23 employees quit whining about their boss (exboss) and stick to what they are paid to do...this is typical of government. Never happy.
wish max stayed
1156. CJ5
Cool, Pat!
lets hope qscat dont fail altogether bet somebody will rethink that b day party real fast
Evening all,

Just enjoying a beautiful Independence Day here in the Bahamas. I'm convinced July 10th was selected at least partially because we always have good weather in early July LOL.

Like others I'm watching Man-yi and noting that outflow clouds are already over the Philippines. Doesn't it seem like it's taking a long time to consolidate itself?

On the ATL, I'm still thinking we will get something before the end of the month. It may not make it to hurricane status or last too long because of high shear or SAL dust, but I think one of these waves popping off W Africa in the next 10 - 14 days is going to organize itself.
1160. CJ5
Man-Yi is now finally starting to close up its convective centre on its polar side.

Should be interesting now as the core will become insulated from drier air that has been intruding from the north and inhibiting development.


Is my impression as well. The COC has closed off more then ever and it is building decent flow and convection now on the N-NW side.
most likley
Will someone take a look at this infrared shot of Man-Yi and tell me if that looks like a trough over Japan right now? Here is a link to a loop if you want to look at it that way.

man yi will become the perfect storm but begin to weaken shortly after reaching it maximum potenial been watchin,it may get to cat 4 within 36 to 48 hrs
1164. nash28
QuickScat failing is not going to make the hurricane forecasts moot.

Too much emphasis put on an outdated satellite.
1165. nash28
Dare I ask what has happened on the blog in the last few hours?
1166. Patrap
MODIS 250m zoom New Orleans Thunderstorms, Visible color. yesterday. from MODIS subsets

Link

man yi will become the perfect storm but begin to weaken shortly after reaching it maximum potenial been watchin,it may get to cat 4 within 36 to 48 hrs

What makes you so sure? A Category 3 or 4 is pretty much a certainty in Japan or wherever it is. Unless something drastically happens at the last minute, that is... I don't really like when people say that, when only the good Lord Jesus knows what will happen.

Yeah nash, I agree completely.

And Baha, yes, that looks like a trough over Japan, I believe. Man-yi is so large that shear would take quite awhile to completely kill it off. Also, if shear blows around Man-yi and not directly over its center, that could open an outflow channel and allow for more strengthening.
1168. Patrap
MODIS near real-time Global Subsets..Link
Forecast wave heights with Man Yi:
Photo Sharing and Video Hosting at Photobucket

Look at the eye developing on vapour imagery:
Photo Sharing and Video Hosting at Photobucket
I don't think any crap has flown around here today, but I haven't read but about 30 posts aside from the ones on this page, either so...
I can definitely tell an eye is forming with Man-yi. It's becoming more and more discernable, and Man-yi may finally begin to intensify at more than just a snail's pace.
1174. nash28
Well, that would be good....

A day without, well, MOSTLY without crap on here....

*bites tongue, will not name names*
why is man yi developing so slow?
is it it's size?
Kori,

I've been looking at the loop, and it appears there is a low pressure system over Siberia Mongolia and China that the JMA forecasters are likely expecting to turn / push Man-yi out to sea again.

It's interesting to be able to apply things you've gleaned by looking at Atlantic situations to other locations around the globe. It reminds us that after all, its all the same weather. . .
Notice the 35W wave starting to get some RED convection! *looks with glee*
1178. Dakster
Nash,

Just do what I do, get the hip boots out. Makes it much easier to wade thru the crap.

So far, a nice slow START to the season. Anyone in the South Florida area notice how HOT it is, even at night the wind is like standing in front of a hairdryer... Funny how the spa is set to 98 and because of the heat the water temp is 100...
^crap^

flying crap, are ya happy, those are wings BTW. LOL

RE wave @ 35, thought that was doing something weird.

Man-yi is REALLY something to watch, glad it's over there but feel for those people. My son said he saw a special where Tokyo had an underground reservoir just for storm surge waters?
Evening all! Dak ...how did you get your spa temp down to 100? Mine is hanging at 104 for the past two days... they need to make a spa for Floridians that gives the ability to cool the water.
1181. nash28
Let us all pray to God that nothing travels the Gulf this year.

TCHP is ABOVE 2005 levels. It would be ugly.

Jet fuel that has been untouched for two years now.

H23 better hope his wish of strong troughiness comes to fruition, as long as they are all northerly Cape Verde systems..
1182. nash28
Anything that forms close to home under low shear, goodnight Irene.
Good evening...

Iam thinking this season florida and the carolinas will have to look out for similar tracks like the on ernesto took which was a hurricane though not for long but the outcome for southflorida could have been much different if ernesto would have come of cuba sooner.Those mountians saved us from a major hurricane.Adrian

tracks
well with 40 to 80 knots of shear in the Central Caribbean now I think you all can rest easy for the next 2 weeks or so.
Nash

If a system were to tap into the water in the NW Caribbean first and then moved into the SE Gomex, THAT would be the worst case scenario.

1186. Melagoo
... the GOM looks like it got even hotter!

yikes
good night stormw

Haven't chatted with you in a few days but then again, not much to talk about right now !
There is a big ULL over Haiti migrating W that is responsible for the high shear values in the Caribbean. One thing I have noticed is that moisture levels are very much on the rebound in the Caribbean whereas a few days ago there was nothing but bone dry air everywhere.

Link
Hurricane 23,
An Ernesto Track? I thought you said trofs would play a factor wouldn't that kick systems out to sea before the Carolinas? Wouldn't a path such as that favor what Nash and others have said of an A/B High set up further West?
Goodnight StormW...Interesting how the stage is set and we wait for the curtain to rise.
1193. RL3AO
The eye is getting ready to emerge.

1
1194. eye
nash....why even mention it??? sigh...


**shakes head***




Posted By: sporteguy03 at 9:44 PM EDT on July 10, 2007. (hide)
Hurricane 23,
An Ernesto Track? I thought you said trofs would play a factor wouldn't that kick systems out to sea before the Carolinas? Wouldn't a path such as that favor what Nash and others have said of an A/B High set up further West?

If we get one to sneak up under a track like this is always possible in my opinion.Not every system will get turned away you always have to be ready for that possibility of 1-2 systems making into the caribbean.Its all about timing with a tropical cyclone.
If this pattern remains there will be very little recurvature this season

1198. IKE
Posted By: kmanislander at 9:01 PM CDT on July 10, 2007.
If this patterns remains there will be very little recurvature this season


Better tell that to Dr. Masters. Maybe you can convince him!
1199. Melagoo
Typhoon MAN-YI: Current Data

Man-Yi
hi
We will see how events unfold but that big high has been ominously persistent so far this year
Taz,
What have you been trying to tell us? Storms won't recurve out to sea?
1203. Dakster
Ahh... Yes, we need water coolers instead of heaters down here. I used the pool water to cool off the jacuzzi and bring the temp down to 100..

Still a little too hot for me.

On the tropical side of things. What would happen if a storm formed and went into the GOM right now? Would it go due west and slam into Texas/Mexico or would it curve to the north?

I don't like the THCP maps that so a greater heat content than 2005, it is kind of scary to think what a storm would do if it made it there, just wondering where it would go.
1204. Patrap
No solutions for a hypothetical GOM scenario.
Only westcastng..for now
Dakster

The path of a storm in the GOM now would depend on a number of factors, including whether there was a trough moving in from the NW to erode the Western edge of the high.
1206. Patrap
GOM Sst's area specific 60 hour forecast model..and more.

Link

1208. IKE
The path of a storm in the GOM now would depend on a number of factors, including whether there was a trough moving in from the NW to erode the Western edge of the high.

Which there has been so far this season. And I can't see the GOM going all season without a hurricane...like it did in 2006.
Hey all...

As much as we don't wish bad on anyone, I think that I can say both Ike and I prefer the Texas/Mexico Scenario - we've dealt with northern recurvature for 10 years (1995 - 2005). Time to "share the wealth"...

As to Man-Yi, what's inhibiting it's development? Is it entraining dry air from somewhere?
Carribbean


000
AXNT20 KNHC 110006
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE JUL 10 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2330 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED ALONG 24W NEAR THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS S
OF 18N MOVING WEST AT 10 TO 15 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A
WEAK MID LEVEL CIRCULATION TRAILING THE WAVE TO THE E...NEAR
13N22W. NO SIGNIFICANT SHOWER OR TSTM ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS WAVE.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 52W S OF 19N MOVING WEST AT 15 TO 20 KT. THE
WAVE HAS A WELL DEFINED SIGNATURE IN THE SSMI PRECIPITABLE WATER
LOOP...CORRESPONDING WELL WITH GOES SATELLITE IMAGERY AS WELL.
BUOYS 41040 AND 41101 TO THE NW OF THE WAVE CONTINUE TO SHOW
SLIGHT NE COMPONENT IN THE WIND FLOW. DIMINISHING SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS NOTED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR THE ITCZ.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 65W MOVING WEST AROUND 15 KT. THE WAVE
REMAINS WEAK AND VERY LOW AMPLITUDE WITH THE BEST SIGNATURE
EVIDENT ON ON SSMI PRECIPITABLE WATER LOOP. POSITION OF THIS
FEATURE IS BASED MAINLY ON CONTINUITY...ALTHOUGH A BRIEF SURGE
OF SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM EARLIER IN THE DAY N OF
VENEZUELAN COAST HINT OF THE WAVE'S PUSH INTO THE AREA.

A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 79W MOVING WEST AT 10 TO 15 KT. THIS
FEATURE IS DIFFICULT TO PRECISELY LOCATED AS IT HAS VERY WEAK
STRUCTURE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. HOWEVER...HOVMOLLER DIAGRAMS AND
ANIMATED SSMI PRECIPITABLE WATER LOOPS SHOW PERSISTENT AREA OF
MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. CLOSEST SHOWER AND
TSTM ACTIVITY IS WELL TO W ALONG THE NICARAGUAN COAST...AND
SEEMS TIED TO UPPER LEVEL FEATURES.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 13N17W 6N40W 8N52W 8N61W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 25W AND
28W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM S OF AXIS
BETWEEN 32W AND 34W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER W COAST OF THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA NEAR 28N82W...AHEAD OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM 30N93W TO 25N97W. DIVERGENCE ALOFT IS ENHANCING
ISOLATED SHOWER AND TSTMS OVER THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE.
HOWEVER...GENERALLY DRY AIR IS GENERALLY PREVENTING SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION OVER GULF WATERS. SHIP AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS ALONG
WITH EARLIER QUIKSCAT DATA SHOW LIGHT TO MODERATE SLY SURFACE
FLOW ACROSS GULF WATERS...ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF HIGH PRES
CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT W
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH MINIMAL SHOWER OR TSTMS
ACTIVITY EXPECTED.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED SW OF HAITI NEAR 17N75W. WHILE
THE UNSTABLE CENTER OF THE LOW IS ENHANCING AFTERNOON CONVECTION
OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF HISPANIOLA...DRY SUBSIDENT AIR IS EVIDENT
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN BASIN N OF 17N. FURTHER S...UPPER RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS THE AREA S OF 17N...WITH WLY FLOW ALOFT
BRINGING INCREASED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. UPPER DIVERGENCE ON THE
WRN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG
THE CARIBBEAN COAST OF NICARAGUA...IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING
TROPICAL WAVE. AT THE SURFACE...STRENGTHENING SURFACE RIDGE TO
THE N IS ALLOWING FRESH TO STRONG TRADES OVER THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN CARIBBEAN...AS EVIDENCED BY EARLIER QUIKSCAT PASS.
MODERATE TO FRESH ELY PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN...ALTHOUGH THIS ACTIVITY MAY INCREASE SLIGHTLY AS
RIDGING BUILDS BEHIND TROPICAL WAVE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
UPPER TROUGH...EXTENDING FROM 32N40W TO 21N56W TO AN UPPER LOW
NEAR 17N57W...IS MAINTAINING FAIRLY DRY AIR N OF 17N W OF 40W.
ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS S TO 8N42W IS LIKEWISE MAINTAINING
DRY SUBSIDENT AIR OVER TROP N ATLC N OF ITCZ BETWEEN 38W AND
49W. W OF THIS TROUGH...UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED
GENERALLY NEAR 10N54W. UPPER DIVERGENCE AROUND SRN AND WRN EDGES
OF THIS ANTICYCLONE WILL ENHANCE SHOWERS IN VICINITY OF WAVE
NEAR 52W AS IT MOVES TOWARD LESSER ANTILLES TOMORROW. E OF THE
UPPER TROUGH IS ANOTHER UPPER ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NE OF CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 18N22W. THIS MAY BE ENHANCING MINOR
CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ NEAR 33W...ALTHOUGH SHOWERS ARE FAIRLY
LIMITED ALONG WAVE NEAR 24W...AHEAD OF MID LEVEL LOW CENTER TO
THE E OF THE WAVE. AT THE SURFACE...MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE FLOW
REMAINS IN PLACE S OF 20N...S OF SURFACE RIDGE CENTERED OVER
CENTRAL ATLC.


$$
CHRISTENSEN


1211. Patrap
There is no storm..only hype.
One cant forecast hype.
Climatology is the best indicator of potential...and history.
1212. IKE
Plus with gas prices already at 3.03 a gallon here in the panhandle of Florida, a GOM major threat may make it $5/gallon.
1213. Patrap
But as the GOM goes..thru time..the nose of the ridge always has a role to play seems in August.How systems glide around it and when..often dictate the path. As is many years past..
YES

I live in Sugarloaf Key and stayed in my house through Wilma. I believe the top windspeed gusts never exceeded 90 miles an hour unless you were at fort zachary in the dry tortugas. 80-90 mph gusts are a little different than 120 mph gusts but it was still windy as hell.
oops i meant fort jefferson in the tortugas- which is a vey cool place to visit by boat.
I would not expect to see a strong ridge all the way back to Texas for the season. If anything, it would push back perhaps just W of Fla ( such as was the case when Ivan and others came up through the GOM from the Caribbean ). Gilbert went far W, driven more by the type of ridge we are seeing now.

All depends what you have in place if and when something comes along. No point speculating unless and until it happens
I have a question,
is it possible to take photos from i photo and put it on your blog, if so can someone please tell me?
Thank you
Hey guys in S. Fla -

Do what we do in the panhandle to cool off your spa. Just dump the beer ice into it after you get back from fishing...
Now everyone knows why the Chamber of Commerce left the panhandle off the state map a few years back...
You guys in the panhandle are crazy. Move down here to the Keys where we get your storms as babys before they grow up in the gulf.
Okay, I've gotten no links to news of the infamous NOAA 4 million dollar office party, so my guess is that it falls under the category of urban legend. Anyone else cares to post about this myth, please provide evidence that it actually happened. Please.
I'm actually sitting in the pool now as I type!


I guess you have more than one computer as well as you will soon be needing a second LOL
Watch out for surge !
look at this low wind shear
wind shear in the Caribbean is olny 10 to 15kt and wind shear in the gulf is olny 5kt and in the Central Atlantic wind shear is 20 to 25kt and droping has well

1229. Patrap
NOAA b-day

Link
This map, which is only 2 hrs old, says 80 knots Taz !. Your map is from 1800 Z

Link
1232. Melagoo
When you look at how big Man-Yi is it looks like it takes up 1/4 of North Western Pacific ... would be very worried living in Southern Japan these days

man-yi
Sorry, yes 60
hard to read but now when I look at the progression I see that.
Doesn't matter anyway, nothing around to shear !
STOP UESING THE GOD DAM cimss MAP I DONT UES THEM I UES THE COLOR MAPS THAT cimss NEEDS TO BE FIXS SO DONT UES OR SHOW ME ANY MORE OF THE cimss MAP THAT MAP IS NOT RIGHT AT ALL SO STOP UESING IT



i love uesing my color map that cimss map is way off !!! the color wind shear map i post is right map to ues
Anyway good night all.

BB tomorrow. Have a good evening
Mr Niceville, Man-Yi has been somewhat inhibited in its development due to incursions of drier air on its poleward side. This should no longer much of an issue now as it has now closed up the core mass of covection.

Additionally, due to its massive size - its been having trouble getting everything around one single point when convective blow ups have been occurring in different areas of the core.

Both of these difficulties have now been overcome, and as long as vertical shear remains low, the next hours should be interesting to watch (particularly the pressure readings).


Steady there Taz or you will blow a gasket lol
it seems what we can hope for is that all the gas stations near us get ripped up and gas goes spewing everywhere if a storm hits the gulf as we watch eagerly with empty vats in our cars...
it this is JP the map you all like to ues are way off!!!!!!!
kmanislander ok
For folks looking in reading up on the MJO and its affects take a look at this paper which i had saved on my pc and has been of good use to me.Adrian

Madden-Julian Oscillation
Michael -

I take offense! Everyone knows that the panhandle is known as LA. That stands for Lower Alabama. Don't equate me with some goob from the swamps, man!

Seriously - I hope that you have a full replacement policy on the laptop and that you're running on battery...

Michael -

I take offense! Everyone knows that the panhandle is known as LA. That stands for Lower Alabama. Don't equate me with some goob from the swamps, man!

hey im from LA/louisiana dont call us goobs from the swamp.
sounds like us texans are gonna get drowned to death. the bermuda high and the warm waters say that everywhere between galveston, new orleans, tampa, and padre are doomed.
Whoa StormThug - I meant the swamps of Georgia...

Everyone knows they're BAYOUS in Louisiana! I've got family north and south of Lake Pontchatrain - I would NEVER dream of calling my bro-in-law a goob!
ok sorry for the misunderstanding.lol
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8shr.html
1254. Patrap
Alligator invest..La. Link
1255. RL3AO
TD 04E is dead.
has twc done anything about their cruising weather update? what cruise distributer should we use now? what place is good for a cruise today? the bahamas? the carribean? the azores? Japan? i bet they would say" great weather for a cruise in the carribean. oh, and there is a small storm only the size of the GULF 3 miles away from there, but, well, its not of any concern right now. dont forget your head on!"
that would be interesting, but right now i want an inactive season. it would be neat to have an active season, but if they are more than likely to go all into the gulf then, well, you know... dont need another katrina wilma and rita incident.
that would be interesting, but right now i want an inactive season. it would be neat to have an active season, but if they are more than likely to go all into the gulf then, well, you know... dont need another katrina wilma and rita incident.

I want storms if they recurve, so I can see them on satellite. For landfalls, I'll pass. But please people, QUIT saying 2007 is like 2006, or that it's quiet. Everyone needs to get out of their 2005 hypnosis soapbox.......
1260. RL3AO
I wouldn't mind a 1995 like season, but the storms won't recurve like that this year.
nop they wont
well, apparently head on kills blogs easily. bye guys. goodnight.
Here's a little reality check this year, though: Even if a majority of storms don't recurve, not every storm is going to hit the United States mainland. Period. I don't care HOW much favorable conditions you have, it isn't going to happen. No season on record, no matter how much U.S. landfalls, has never had all storms make U.S. landfalls, except for 1914, and only because of one storm forming the entire season. Correlation between numbers and landfalls is poor.
Good night, tropicnerd.
quiet in here now
1267. bobcane
Does anybody know what Man-Yi means or can translate it into English?
I think it has to do with flowers or love...not really sure
1269. RL3AO
it means straight or reservoir.
1270. mclori
In many of the Bantu languages, it means "mother of twins."
man yi looks to be clearing in coc with a slight curve to the left been watchin looks very impressive on sat maybe R.I.C shortly
man-yi is the chinese name for a reservoir in hong kong name High Island Reservoir.
A cold front is expected to push off the U.S. East Coast by Sunday, and we will have to watch the waters off the North Carolina coast then for development when the front stalls out.

*******YAY******* 4 Days*** Get ready..
Gone to bed everyone.See yall Saturday/Sunday to check the tropics.
1276. Fshhead
Hmmm JFlorida I will bite on the sun& global warming lol Not sure if this blog is the place though. Thanx cause for sure I will use that in my GW blog lol
man yi starting R.I.C

(RAPID INTENSIFICATION CYCLE)
1278. sfranz

I came across another reference. The channel's name was Kwun Mun. Man Yee was the name of a fishing village that was relocated when the dam filled.

1279. sfranz

Nice loop of the eye formation. (Is that a wee bit of stadium effect already?)

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/mtsat/wpac/loop-rgb.html
1280. Fshhead
yup looking like intensification all right!!
Good satellite shot here...
Link
1281. Fshhead
Sfranz that shot really shows how strong its getting!! & yes getting stadium seating allright lol
1282. Fshhead
classic wobble from wall replacement indicating strengthening
The Dvorak has begun its dive:

Dvorak Man-Yi

6 Hr average of 3.8, but Raw is listing already at 6.2 which is some rapid intensification indeed...

Japan better start getting prepared as this is not going to dissapate before landfall...

JWTC has this just south of Tokyo...
in 5 days....forgot that part. oops
man yi about to kick it up notch
1286. TayTay
Man Yi is going to really intensify in the next 24 hours.
There is a nice picture of Man Yi on weather.com

Link
Posted By: kmanislander at 2:28 AM GMT on July 11, 2007.
I'm actually sitting in the pool now as I type!


...in the south, that boy is what we call a "over-cooked ham"....LOL. (jfk, kman)
Good stuff tonight. Met an airman with a close friend to the HH's, swapped some emails, hoping to get some good stuff from them to share with the blog soon. SUPER nice!

Big purple people eater looks like it's headed to Japan...whoa, and looking more symetrical and dangerous, too.
According to Dvorak readings, Man-Yi has dropped 8mb in pressure during the past 1.5 hours.

If the poleward side gets some decent convection going, we are going to see something truly scary.
Man-Yi IR


Look at the amount of associated activity on the equatorial side of the storm, amazing!
Looks like I can't count out that rapid intensification just yet. I though that Man-yi wouldn't make it to super typhoon status, but I think that is possible, although by about 20-30%.
1292. Fshhead
Man-Yi really wrapping now....
Wunderground says its at cat 1 status??? Sure looks stonger than that to me...
Link
1293. Fshhead
Still wobbling, going through eyewall replacement...if there is low shear in its path, this thing going to bomb!!Link
1294. Fshhead
convection really wrapping around center & establishing good outflow Time to batten down the hatches!!!!!
1295. TayTay
Looking at that monster makes me shudder.
1296. snowboy
BULLETIN
TYPHOON MAN-YI (04W) ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
800 PM GUAM LST WED JUL 11 2007

...TYPHOON MAN-YI TRACKING STEADILY NORTHWEST...

NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT.

AT 7 PM GUAM LST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON MAN-YI WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 18.0 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 132.4 DEGREES EAST.
THIS IS ABOUT 700 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF YAP AND 880 MILES
WEST-NORTHWEST OF GUAM.

TYPHOON MAN-YI IS MOVING NORTHWEST AT 21 MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY WITH A SLOW DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 105 MPH. TYPHOON MAN-YI IS
EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY FURTHER OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY.

TYPHOON FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES FROM THE CENTER...
AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 180 MILES FROM
THE CENTER.

REPEATING THE 7 PM GUAM LST POSITION...LATITUDE 18.0 DEGREES NORTH
AND LONGITUDE 132.4 DEGREES EAST...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 21 MPH WITH
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 105 MPH.
Almost a Cat 3
1298. snowboy
Discussion from JTWC site:

REMARKS:
110900Z POSITION NEAR 18.0N 132.4E.
TYPHOON (TY) 04W (MAN-YI) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 595 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF NAHA, OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 18
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. RECENT MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY
CONTINUES TO INDICATE A TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING EYE. IN ADDITION
TO PREXISTING EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, THE TY HAS ENTERED A REGION
OF FAVORABLE POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE IMPROVED OUTFLOW CONDITIONS
ARE ALLOWING FOR INTENSIFICATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 110600Z IS 30 FEET.
Good Morning!
Let us keep an eye on 30-35 W some convection still part of ITCZ but could break off we'll see now back to your local forecast
Photo Sharing and Video Hosting at Photobucket

What's this? The CMC developing something North of Hispanola? More on this all day at Dr.M's blog!
man-yi looking very impressive?

I can see this becoming a supertyphoon by Friday if it get's it continues to get its act together.

The models are showing rapid dissapationg though as it aprroaches Japan, maybe not even making landfall on the mainland. I guess that's good news but I can't see that happening. There would have to be some serious wind shear.
1303. IKE
sporteguy03....maybe that's the system out in the Atlantic that they show north of Hispanola in 144 hours?
1304. IKE
And looking at the CMC model run...it could be that system around 30-35 west.
gfs hints at the same system t=144

1306. bobw999
Maybe like Chris last year:


this might help .local news says watching a tropical wave by pr that will be in the car and may develope stay tuned
1308. IKE
There's nothing by PR...

The system with some promise is about at 8N,32W.
i dont see it either but they do somewhere hehe but i do see the one by 35 been asking about that all night
Posted By: IKE at 11:12 AM GMT on July 11, 2007.
And looking at the CMC model run...it could be that system around 30-35 west.


I haven't looked on models closely this morn but that's the one that was looking more solid than the others for lack of a better word.

Oh and GOOD MORNING all. Man-yi looks more impressive by the moment.
Like drak would say : " 144 hours is like looking into a crystal ball" lol
1312. franck
Eight millibars in an an hour and a half. Is that right? By the look of cloud formation, Man Yi is still in its infancy.
1314. Patrap
Man-yi guidance track and Info..JTWC

Link
1316. Patrap
West-Pacific Full Disk IR. Man-yi centered.

Link
1317. Patrap
Okinawa now in full prep mode for Man-yi.Kadena AFB moving Aircraft to Points off the Island.
Morning all,

I'll be out most of the day, so I won't be able to add much to the blog. However, I have to say Man-yi is looking ever more impressive with each 12-hour period. I'll be fascinated to see what it looks like by the time I get back this evening!

Sunshine, on the rapid dissapation, look at a sat. loop that shows the area NW of Japan. Looks like some competition for the space may be coming along to at least redirect Man-yi if not to destroy it.
Thanks for the Sat. Pic Patrap, Man-yi sure is getting pretty.
StormW,
Good Morning, today the GFS and CMC are hinting at development. Look forward to Synopsis
Man-Yi is really ramping it up now...

Dvorak readings are now stating that winds are approaching 100kts and that surface pressures are below 950mb - that is a drop of almost 30mb in just 3 hours.

According to those readings Man-Yi is easily a Cat 3 already and well on the way to being a super typhoon.

Centre temps are now reporting in the positives for the first time also, meaning that the eye is now cloud free to allow the column of air within free to aid in the further intensification of the storm.

good morning

the MDR is a death bed for any systems trying to form., because of the high wind shear. Also the SAL is very dense all the way from Africa to the lesser Antilles. The only area is at 9N 32W ahead of a westward moving tropical wave at 28W.

DOES ANYONE HAVE ANY FORECAST AS TO WHEN THE SHEAR WILL RELAX.
stoormfury, what is the MDR?? I know MJO and SAL but MDR?
1325. Patrap
Man-yi. - Multispectral Satellite Imagery

Link

Hey StormW what time does your synopsis come out?? Im always so impressed by it.
1328. IKE
NEW BLOG!
If Japan thinks Godzilla is big then they should take a look at this...

Man-Yi Eyewall


Dvorak Man-Yi Current


The beast has been unleashed...