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Bill Makes Landfall in Texas; Greatest Impact Still to Come

By: Bob Henson and Jeff Masters 12:52 AM GMT on June 17, 2015

Less than 12 hours after it was named, Tropical Storm Bill pushed ashore near Matagorda Bay, Texas, at 11:45 am CDT Tuesday. Peak winds at landfall were 60 mph, with a gust to 53 mph reported at both Palacios and Port O’Connor, Texas. Some minor coastal flooding was observed, with the water level at Port Lavaca about 3 feet above normal, but on the whole Bill caused relatively little trouble along the Texas shore. That may not be the case inland over the next couple of days, as Bill churns slowly north and its showers and thunderstorms continue to organize.


Figure 1. GOES satellite image of Tropical Storm Bill as it neared the Texas coast. Image credit: NASA/GOES Project Science.


Figure 2. Bill’s thunderstorm activity continued to organize on Tuesday evening even with the center now inland. This NWS radar image from the WU Storm app is from 7:20 pm Tuesday, June 16.


At 7:00 pm CDT Tuesday, Bill was located about 10 miles northeast of Victoria, TX, with a central pressure of 999 mb and peak sustained winds of 45 mph. Bill wobbled westward this afternoon, but it was moving north-northwest at 9 mph as of 7 pm Tuesday. An observer in northwest Houston reported 0.92” of rain in just 15 minutes on Tuesday afternoon. Even as the storm weakens to a depression by Wednesday morning, Bill should maintain its identity as a distinct surface low. Multiple models are suggesting that Bill could even reorganize somewhat over northeast Texas or southeast Oklahoma late Wednesday or early Thursday. This uncommon occurrence is being made possible by extremely wet soils over much of Texas and Oklahoma, which just saw the wettest month in their history. As discussed in our post Monday, there’s an increasing amount of research on the process by which a tropical cyclone can re-intensify well inland if soils are sufficiently moist--what’s been called the “brown ocean effect.”


Figure 3. Projected three-day precipitation totals from the NOAA Weather Prediction Center, for the period from 0000 GMT June 17 to June 20, show the expected track of Bill around the high-pressure center in the southeast U.S. Image credit: NWS/WPC.

Heavy rain threat still on tap
Bill’s track inland was just far enough west of Houston that the metro area was largely spared from heavy rain on Tuesday afternoon. Convection may organize somewhat tonight, as the surface layer decouples from the rest of Bill, and there is likely to be a core of intense rainfall somewhere near the I-35 and I-45 corridors of central Texas on Wednesday. The Dallas-Fort Worth area will be in Bill’s crosshairs by Wednesday afternoon and evening, with the local NWS office warning of a risk of widespread 3 - 6” rains and local amounts of 6” - 12” near Bill’s center and where persistent banding occurs. Tornadoes are also quite possible tonight and Tuesday, especially northeast of Bill’s center; a long-lived tornado watch is in effect for much of southeast Texas through midnight CDT Tuesday night. With soils saturated, the risk of flash flooding is serious, particularly over north-central and northeast Texas late Wednesday and over roughly the southeast half of Oklahoma from late Wednesday into Thursday. Rivers and reservoirs still engorged from Texas and Oklahoma east to Arkansas and Louisiana will not be able to handle much additional rain from Bill, so flooding may be a continued headache for days to come. Shreveport, LA, has already seen extensive damage from some of the highest levels since 1945 along the Red River.

As Bill moves north, its moisture will intersect a weak surface front that arcs from central Oklahoma into the Ohio Valley, and bands of heavy rain may develop well north of the actual circulation. Flash flood watches were in effect on Tuesday night all the way from south Texas to central Illinois.


Figure 4. Rainfall in Mexico from Hurricane Carlos and Tropical Storm Bill for the 24 hours ending at 8 am Tuesday June 16, 2015. The maximum rainfall amount was 4.15" (105.5 mm) at Pajaritos; just under 4" fell near Puerto Vallarta. Image credit: CONAGUA.

Hurricane Carlos proving difficult to predict
An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft found that Hurricane Carlos was stronger than expected on Tuesday afternoon, with top winds near 90 mph. Maximum sustained winds were reported at 85 mph in the 7:00 pm CDT advisory. Carlos continues its slow northwest motion at 5 mph, almost parallel to and about 80 miles offshore from the coast. Fortunately, Carlos is a very small storm, with tropical storm-force winds that only extend outwards about 45 miles. So far its heavy rains have mostly stayed offshore, though a few mountainous areas to its north received about 4" of rain in the 24 hour period ending at 8 am Tuesday. Satellite loops showed an intermittent eye today, with the hurricane's heavy thunderstorms remaining just offshore from the coast near Manzanillo, Mexico. Dry air and a more stable atmosphere should lead to weakening on Wednesday, but this forecast is low-confidence. The storm's small size has made it difficult to predict for the computer models, and Carlos may be able to maintain hurricane strength longer than expected. Carlos will likely bring heavy rains of 3 - 6 inches to portions of the Southwest Mexican coast through Thursday, which will cause flash flooding and mudslides.


We’ll be back with an update on Wednesday morning.

Bob Henson (Bill), Jeff Masters (Carlos)
Waterfall ffreeway
Waterfall ffreeway
This is how much rain was coming down in T.S. Bill. That's I was in my Jeep
storms over SA
storms over SA
Tuesday afternoon storms move across San Antonio,

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

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Thank you Dr. Bob Henson and Dr. Jeff Masters!
Thanks Doc the remnants of Bill could swing our way and produce some rain.
BaltimoreBrian- REALLY???
Think we may be seeing a millibar drop now and maybe even an increase in winds. Appearance can be deceptive but cloud tops have cooled and CDO has increased. Clearly this is being monitored closely by experts studying this affect. Looking forward to reading the next NHC update to see what they have to say concerning this.
Well, this is interesting.

I messaged Dr. M. he go the wrong colour, it's brown ocean effect not black...
Quoting 4. bryanfromkyleTX:
BaltimoreBrian- REALLY???
Yep, really.
So cool to see this!
What say you TA? Likely a millibar drop with Bill right now?
Quoting 10. DeepSeaRising:

What say you TA? Likely a millibar drop with Bill right now?


A close by PWS says 996mb. I know some of them are not accurate, but most are. So that's a 3mb drop since the last NHC update.
So Unusual! It looks like Bill is strengthening over land
Tropical cyclones frequently 'draw in' their rainbands at night when they are inland, concentrating their rain near the center.


tropical storm billlook better on land right now with more rain in the center
Thanks for the update Dr. Masters. It's going to be rough even here in Missouri. It's been pouring for hours today, and we already had very saturated soils, and both the Mississippi & Missouri rivers are in flood. Several more days of this will take its toll. I drive to work alongside the Meramec river in Fenton, Mo, and I'm guessing it'll be over the road I take by the end of the week. Gonna have to find a different route to work! I feel for the folks in Texas.
Quoting 14. BaltimoreBrian:

Tropical cyclones frequently 'draw in' their rainbands at night when they are inland, concentrating their rain near the center.


Did you hear of the "brown ocean effect" Brian ?
Going to ask again because it was unanswered, was Hurricane Hazel an example of Brown Ocean effect? I think she was but I'm unsure.
Any thoughts on model verification? GFS was way west of track this time.
Quoting 18. Articuno:

Going to ask again because it was unanswered, was Hurricane Hazel an example of Brown Ocean effect? I think she was but I'm unsure.


No. Hazel joined forces with a very powerful extratropical storm (-40 C temps at 500 mb over Iowa), and clashed with an arctic airmass that brought 30s as far south as Tallahassee, FL on October 17.
Quoting 10. DeepSeaRising:

What say you TA? Likely a millibar drop with Bill right now?

There will be if it keeps firing convection like it is now!
Quoting 17. MahFL:

Did you hear of the "brown ocean effect" Brian ?
I've been aware of it since tropical storm Danny intensified over land in northeastern North Carolina in July 1997, although I did not know the name.
Not all people calibrate their barometers on their PWS to their correct altitude.
Tropical Storm Bill made landfall on Matagorda Island, Texas at 11:45 a.m. CDT with maximum sustained winds of 60 mph. This is about 25 miles southwest of Port O' Connor.
Bill has since weakened as its center slowly moves inland.
A tornado watch has been issued by NOAA's Storm Prediction Center for parts of central and southeast Texas until 12:00 a.m. CDT. This watch area includes Houston, Austin and Waco.
Tropical storm warnings remain in effect from Port Aransas to San Luis Pass, Texas.
Coastal flooding has been reported along parts of the Texas coast. Water levels peaked about 3.5 feet above normal tide in Port Lavaca, Texas, early Tuesday afternoon. Roads have also been flooded on parts of Galveston Island.
Some street flooding has already occurred in the Houston area due to heavy downpours that have dumped more than an inch of rain in one hour on parts of the city and its suburbs.
Several wind gusts of 50 mph or higher have been reported on the Texas coast, including Port O'Connor (53 mph), Matagorda Bay (53 mph) and Palacios (53 mph). The top wind gust on land so far is 63 mph on the Bolivar Peninsula at the Crab Lake mesonet site.
The Brazos 451 oil platform, just off the central part of the Texas Gulf Coast, clocked gusts as high as 66 mph late Tuesday morning.
From the link Doc/Bob provided in Monday's post. Another one for the researchers?

...Furthermore, it remains to be quantified why the convective development and reorganization occurred during the nighttime hours, when surface latent heat fluxes were at a minimum and continental convection would tend to become elevated rather than surface based in nature. Future work will attempt to quantify these processes along with the forecastability inherent therein...

Clark Evans, Russ S. Schumacher, and Thomas J. Galarneau Jr., 2011: Sensitivity in the Overland Reintensification of Tropical Cyclone Erin (2007) to Near-Surface Soil Moisture Characteristics. Mon. Wea. Rev., 139, 3848–3870.
Link
Bill is getting an eye.
This is as close to soil saturation comparisons that line up with what we had with TS Erin. Great test. Starting to looking like this may well not be some phantom effect.
So I understand how the Brown Ocean Effect could influence wind speeds and general storm intensity, but does it affect precipitation as well? I ask because wouldn't it simply pull up the moisture from the saturated soil and return it back to the ground in the form of rain? It would seem to be a closed system, right?
Quite a nice little hot tower there as Bill says goodnight.



Excuse the mouse.
From the looks of Bill , I would venture to say be prepared for anything but normal this season!
Quoting 30. MaineGuy:

So I understand how the Brown Ocean Effect could influence wind speeds and general storm intensity, but does it affect precipitation as well? I ask because wouldn't it simply pull up the moisture from the saturated soil and return it back to the ground in the form of rain? It would seem to be a closed system, right?


It's not simple, the net result is more rain, evaporation occurs over days, rain usually in minutes or hours, it runs into low areas, creating flash flooding and area flooding.
Quoting 33. stormpetrol:

From the looks of Bill , I would venture to say be prepared for anything but normal this season!


This is normal, this was expected.

It's not simple, the net result is more rain, evaporation occurs over days, rain usually in minutes or hours, it runs into low areas, creating flash flooding and area flooding, plus it brought a ton of moisture with it from the Gulf.
Quoting 28. TCweatherman:

Bill is getting an eye.
Geez, enough with the eye thing already. You can see the tall storms casting shadows on the lower clouds masses in the visible part of the RGB loop. That can look like an eye. As the storm circulation wraps up on itself, there will be small voids develop. They aren't an eye. It's not common to see a 45 mph, 999 mb storm with an eye even over open water. Even with the "brown ocean", we're not likely to see it now either.

Quoting 29. DeepSeaRising:

This is as close to soil saturation comparisons that line up with what we had with TS Erin. Great test. Starting to looking like this may well not be some phantom effect.


I don't think you can call it a phantom effect. "Rare" would work, but it has probably occurred many times in the past-as long as tropical cyclones have made landfall on the continent. If you throw synoptic and mesoscale forcings out of the discussion you will indeed make the "brown ocean" a phantom effect.

I'll leave the "Attribution" argument to others. And there is room for that if the rains of May were aided by an abundance of water vapor.
Quoting 27. beell:

From the link Doc/Bob provided in Monday's post. Another one for the researchers?

...Furthermore, it remains to be quantified why the convective development and reorganization occurred during the nighttime hours, when surface latent heat fluxes were at a minimum and continental convection would tend to become elevated rather than surface based in nature. Future work will attempt to quantify these processes along with the forecastability inherent therein...

Clark Evans, Russ S. Schumacher, and Thomas J. Galarneau Jr., 2011: Sensitivity in the Overland Reintensification of Tropical Cyclone Erin (2007) to Near-Surface Soil Moisture Characteristics. Mon. Wea. Rev., 139, 3848–3870.
Link

Maybe a brown DMAX? :-)
Although Bill made landfall this is far from being over. Convection popping over the LLC. Things might get hairy tonight Southeast TX.
I think Oklahoma City may luck out with the heavy rains to the east, maybe not even an inch. Dallas-Fort Worth metroplex could have a very ugly day tomorrow. Click images to expand.

Model rainfall forecast for Dallas/Fort Worth



and Oklahoma City

Quoting 23. BaltimoreBrian:

I've been aware of it since tropical storm Danny intensified over land in northeastern North Carolina in July 1997, although I did not know the name.
It has certainly been around for much longer than it has had a name. Bill is not the only tropical cyclone to make landfall over saturated ground. I believe the same effect can occur with any convective storm over saturated ground. I had three big thunderstorms in two weeks with torrential rains that dropped between 1.50 and 2.50 inches in less than 45 minutes. They weren't part of an organized line, just otherwise typical diurnal storms. We had ten inches of rain in May and the ground was well saturated before these storms hit. I obviously have no proof that the saturated ground at least made these storms more efficient rain producers, but I did not see these type of storms during our drought years.
this site is messing up..asking me to validate my email address and then says it fails..

and go Warriors..
While Bill is rightfully the big story, have a look at Carlos on the RGB loop. He is decoupling at a rapid rate.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/03E/flas h-rgb-long.htm
Bill is really firing up tonight, wonder how the structure will look more over land tomorrow, like models are showing,
Go warriors!
Quoting 43. ncstorm:

this site is messing up..asking me to validate my email address and then says it fails..

and go Warriors..
Quoting 39. sar2401:

Maybe a brown DMAX? :-)


How about, maybe, Bill still has his tail in the Blue-Ocean?
Gusting to 50mph in Garwood, TX.
Quoting 35. VAbeachhurricanes:



This is normal, this was expected.


Sometimes what is expected turns out to be not the norm, sometimes what is the norm turns into the unexpected, I know about Erin the land cane and the brown ocean effect, but these are not the norm statistically speaking, the numbers don't add up to be considered "normal"just my opinion, so I still look for anything but the norm this season, I could be completely wrong but until then my remarks still stands!
Quoting 12. K8eCane:

So Unusual! It looks like Bill is strengthening over land
It's convection blowing up right now. At night, you have less solar radiation (insolation) reaching the top of the atmosphere from the sun...well, to tell the truth, no solar radiation reaching the top of the atmosphere from the sun. This results in a cooler atmosphere as a whole. While the temperatures in the upper troposphere are always cold to begin with, when there is less insolation, the overall temperatures are going to be colder. Thus, you see a minimum in the mid-to-late afternoon, when the amount of insolation through the day is at its peak (around the time you see the daily high temperature at the surface), whereas you see a maximum in the overnight hours when the atmosphere has had time to sufficiently cool (around the time you see the daily low temperature at the surface). That diurnal maximum effect (DMax) is often seen with tropical systems that get stronger at night over the ocean. Since the ground is so saturated, it takes longer to cool than dry ground, so convection has a greater chance to increase at night than usual over land. At least, this is what I think is happening.
So far, rainfall totals have thankfully not been too bad in most areas from Bill. It seems it's heavier rainfall rates are very short lived and not able to last long enough to do too much damage so far. Houston hasn't done too bad along with most other regions. That doesn't mean that onshore tropical flow couldn't set up a nasty convergent band off the gulf in the Houston area though.


As far as the late day convective burst, not terribly surprised given the western semicircle was pretty clear earlier and allowed for heating. low level inflow pulled in the heat, giving it a instability surge. As it's getting dark now, convective weakening is beginning as expected.

TS Erin on the other hand, was quite an anomaly.
Quoting 47. beell:



How about, maybe, Bill still has his tail in the Blue-Ocean?
Yeah, that too. It was very apparent all day on radar and satellite.
Quoting 40. Ricki13th:

Although Bill made landfall this is far from being over. Convection popping over the LLC. Things might get hairy tonight Southeast TX.

You mean I might get over an inch of rain? I'm struggling to get to .73" right now. And I think another trash can may have blown over...
Quoting 44. LemieT:

While Bill is rightfully the big story, have a look at Carlos on the RGB loop. He is decoupling at a rapid rate.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/03E/flas h-rgb-long.htm


Looks like he's about to make landfall right on the edge of the NHC's cone:





What a tricky storm Carlos has been to forecast!
Quoting 19. summerland:

Any thoughts on model verification? GFS was way west of track this time.
It pretty much hugged the TX/MEX border for the whole cycle. I didn't spend any time looking at it after Bill was declared because it doesn't seem very important to look at models when you can look at the satellite and radar. The one thing I'll say for the major models was, even if some of them had a different start point for the low, the general path was not far off between them. That's a good sign the it might not be a ghost storm. Given how long it took for Bill to get its act together, I suspect that any model that was close did so by luck more than the GFS performed badly.
Quoting 55. hydrus:


I'm sorry, but all those colors make me nauseous. :-)
Quoting 54. Envoirment:



Looks like he's about to make landfall right on the edge of the nhc's cone:





What a tricky storm Carlos has been to forecast!
That's for sure. Carlos has kept just offshore the entire time and is still tyring draw away from the coast now. It could very well end up in the Sea of Cortez at this rate.
Quoting 52. sar2401:

Yeah, that too. It was very apparent all day on radar and satellite.


You know it's an odd day when the best tool - out of hundreds you've collected over the years - you can
use to analyze a cyclone that happens to be in your back yard very well inland is... your local radar.
Quoting 53. LoneStarWeather:


You mean I might get over an inch of rain? I'm struggling to get to .73" right now. And I think another trash can may have blown over...
Shh. Just keep hoping your luck holds. It would be a very good thing.
Looks like this year will be a home grown year with most storms developing north of 20. We could have fewer storms but at least 2 majors hitting U.S. JMHO!! Look out Gulf Coast!
Quoting 59. redwagon:



You know it's an odd day when the best tool - out of hundreds you've collected over the years - you can
use to analyze a cyclone that happens to be in your back yard very well inland is... your local radar.
One of the advantages of homegrowns. Look at Arthur last year. I don't think it wasn't on radar somewhere for its whole life.
Quoting 51. Jedkins01:

So far, rainfall totals have thankfully not been too bad in most areas from Bill. It seems it's heavier rainfall rates are very short lived and not able to last long enough to do too much damage so far. Houston hasn't done too bad along with most other regions. That doesn't mean that onshore tropical flow couldn't set up a nasty convergent band off the gulf in the Houston area though.


As far as the late day convective burst, not terribly surprised given the western semicircle was pretty clear earlier and allowed for heating. low level inflow pulled in the heat, giving it a instability surge. As it's getting dark now, convective weakening is beginning as expected.

TS Erin on the other hand, was quite an anomaly.


Great synopsis. So much we just don't know. SST's and predicting what they will be 48 hours out, why Erin did what she did, Haiyan, how Gro is still alive all these centuries later, why Sar is so sarcastic, we just don't have the answers yet.
Quoting 54. Envoirment:



Looks like he's about to make landfall right on the edge of the nhc's cone:





What a tricky storm Carlos has been to forecast!

I'll be glad when we get an easy storm to forecast in the East Pacific.
Quoting 57. sar2401:

I'm sorry, but all those colors make me nauseous. :-)
They are color enhanced for temp differences. GOES Sounder has more, maybe even over done colors, but it is what it is...

GOES Imager Cloud Top Pressure
June 17, 2015 - 00:45 UTC.....


Quoting 8. BaltimoreBrian:

Yep, really.
Not Today give it a break!
Quoting 25. BaltimoreBrian:

Not all people calibrate their barometers on their PWS to their correct altitude.


I always set mine at ground level.
Bill will keep pulling moisture into the Texas coast tomorrow, and Okies you're next in line, stay safe.

And btw it's almost 11 PM and 85 degrees outside, yesterday it was 90 by 10 AM.
73. THL3
I'm located about 50 miles NE of Bill. Wind out of the East at 6 and 4/10 inch of rain for today. Sorry, I do not have any puddles to measure.
Hamweather

Quoting 53. LoneStarWeather:


You mean I might get over an inch of rain? I'm struggling to get to .73" right now. And I think another trash can may have blown over...


This made me lol. The wind has been picking up over the last hour here in Pflugerville but nothing big. The rain has been really light which I was hoping would be the case, but who knows. We had more rain in downtown Austin today when one of the outer bands rolled through around noon. I guess the next few hours will tell but as it stands it appears that the Austin metro area will be on the left side of the COC. No complaints at all. I think for our area, however, any big precip will be from the back end/drag on up from the gulf moisture tomorrow. Yes that is a technical term :)
thanks for the update bill and carlos


lol
77. JRRP
adiós a las comparaciones con el niño del 1997.. sera difícil alcanzarlo

Quoting 77. JRRP:

adis a las comparaciones con el nio del 1997.. sera difcil alcanzarlo




we lost off of sa but gained nw pacific westward
its different therefore different outcomes
Quoting 73. THL3:

I'm located about 50 miles NE of Bill. Wind out of the East at 6 and 4/10 inch of rain for today. Sorry, I do not have any puddles to measure.


Count your blessings .
Quoting 43. ncstorm:

this site is messing up..asking me to validate my email address and then says it fails..

and go Warriors..
wait till ya see the retinal eye scanner identification system sign in page

j/k

maybe
Bill is starting to lose that tail out into the Gulf. The overall presentation, even with some convection still kicking off, is definitely declining from even a few hours ago. It's still windy near the low, but not as windy as it was. Pressures in general are starting to rise. There's still some heavy rain about but not widespread heavy rain. It's still too early to say everyone's out of the woods, but it is looking better than forecasters has predicted last night at this time. If this trend continues through tomorrow, people can transition from complaining that the NHC underwarned to the NHC overwarned. That's just the way it goes sometimes but, if nothing else, Texas will have gotten a good "training" storm, and may be ahead of other parts of the coast in terms of being prepared. That would be an almost ideal outcome to the saga of Bill, at least for Texas.
Link


Rain fall totals so far from Bill. Bay City TX area probably got the worst of it.
Storm Rainfall Totals

watchin how this all goes interesting setup

ark event maybe

Station 42035
NDBC
Location: 29.232N 94.413W
Date: Wed, 17 Jun 2015 02:50:00 UTC

Winds: SSE (150°) at 23.3 kt gusting to 29.1 kt
Significant Wave Height: 7.9 ft
Dominant Wave Period: 8 sec
Mean Wave Direction: S (172°)
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.88 in and rising
Air Temperature: 82.0 F
Dew Point: 77.4 F
Water Temperature: 82.4 F

Buoy 22nm E of Galveston. Still a little rough out there. The Buoy 60nm South of Freeport Tx is not reporting currently. It was almost directly in Bill's path.
Quoting 64. DeepSeaRising:



Great synopsis. So much we just don't know. SST's and predicting what they will be 48 hours out, why Erin did what she did, Haiyan, how Gro is still alive all these centuries later, why Sar is so sarcastic, we just don't have the answers yet.
Hey, I feel good tonight. Compared to a couple of posters Bill dragged out from under the couch, I'm just like a big loveable kitty. :-)
Quoting 82. sar2401:

Bill is starting to lose that tail out into the Gulf. The overall presentation, even with some convection still kicking off, is definitely declining from even a few hours ago. It's still windy near the low, but not as windy as it was. Pressures in general are starting to rise. There's still some heavy rain about but not widespread heavy rain. It's still too early to say everyone's out of the woods, but it is looking better than forecasters has predicted last night at this time. If this trend continues through tomorrow, people can transition from complaining that the NHC underwarned to the NHC overwarned. That's just the way it goes sometimes but, if nothing else, Texas will have gotten a good "training" storm, and may be ahead of other parts of the coast in terms of being prepared. That would be an almost ideal outcome to the saga of Bill, at least for Texas.


Have to wait and see what happens when remnants of storm get absorbed by frontal boundary. Bill's impact could be felt far away from landfall area.
A training Storm?

The Gulf Coast is not Boot Camp, sorry to say.

A small impactor has the other effect of delivering complancey since some of "it wasnt dat bad" syndrome gets mixed in the bag too, as logic dictates.



Quoting 83. canehater1:

Link


Rain fall totals so far from Bill. Bay City TX area probably got the worst of it.
Nice try but links to WU weather radar directly don't work. It's just another feature of this site. This is a Link from the NWS, which you can post, because the NWS isn't run people who spend too much time playing video games. Just click on Texas to see the totals. The rain has been much lighter than forecast near the coast and Bill. It has been much heavier inland but I don't know if that's because there were storms there last night ahead of Bill or what. Whatever the reason, at least the state's not under water.

Quoting 89. canehater1:



Have to wait and see what happens when remnants of storm get absorbed by frontal boundary. Bill's impact could be felt far away from landfall area.
Yes, far away, like Indiana. The story isn't over yet, but it certainly has changed.
Quoting 92. sar2401:

Nice try but links to WU weather radar directly don't work. It's just another feature of this site. This is a Link from the NWS, which you can post, because the NWS isn't run people who spend too much time playing video games. Just click on Texas to see the totals. The rain has been much lighter than forecast near the coast and Bill. It has been much heavier inland but I don't know if that's because there were storms there last night ahead of Bill or what. Whatever the reason, at least the state's not under water.




Thanks, sar wasn't aware of the link problem. I did check the NWS radar images , and looks like 4-5 inch total over a narrow area was tops so far.
Quoting 88. sar2401:

Hey, I feel good tonight. Compared to a couple of posters Bill dragged out from under the couch, I'm just like a big loveable kitty. :-)


Lovable? Well by some surely. Loveable? Maybe like that crotchety cat that comes out to catch the rats and occasionally lets you pet him before he posts another pithy reply to some nonsensical post. But, apparently, even he can find love. Keep on keeping on Sar.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
933 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015

.UPDATE...
TROPICAL STORM BILL HAS PICKED UP SOME STEADY NORTHWARD MOTION
THIS EVENING AFTER DAWDLING ALONG THE ALONG THE MIDDLE TEXAS
COAST EARLIER TODAY. NOW THAT THE SUN IS SETTING THE CONVECTION IS
CONSOLIDATING AROUND THE CORE OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THIS
PROCESS IS COMMON WITH TROPICAL SYSTEMS AFTER THEY MOVE INLAND.
ESSENTIALLY WHAT IS HAPPENING IS THAT WITH THE SUN SETTING THE
TEMPERATURES COOL ALL AROUND THE TROPICAL SYSTEM WHERE SKIES ARE
CLEAR. THESE COOLING TEMPERATURES RESULT IN INCREASING
PRESSURES...THEREBY INCREASING THE RELATIVE STRENGTH AND LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AT THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL SYSTEM. THIS
CONSOLIDATING CONVECTIVE CENTER...OFTEN CALLED CORE RAINS...CAN
PRODUCE TREMENDOUS AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND
MORNING HOURS. WHEN THE SUN COMES BACK UP THE GROUND HEATS
UP...AND PRESSURES FALL ALL AROUND THE TROPICAL LOW. THIS THEREBY
DECREASES THE RELATIVE STRENGTH OF THE LOW AND CONVERGENCE DURING
THE DAYTIME HOURS...AND WE SEE AN EXPANSION OF THE COVERAGE OF
RAINFALL. BECAUSE SURFACE TEMPERATURES DO NOT CHANGE MUCH FROM
DAY TO NIGHT OVER OCEANS...IT IS ONE OF THE MANY REASONS TROPICAL
CYCLONES FORM OVER THE OCEAN BECAUSE THE CONVECTION CAN STAY NEAR
THE CENTER OF THE LOW THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS.

VERY INTENSE CONVECTION HAS FORMED NEAR THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE AS IT NOW NEARS THE CITY OF LA GRANGE. WHILE THE RADAR
PRESENTATION MAY NOT LOOK IMPRESSIVE...WITH VALUES ONLY 45-55 DBZ
JUST NORTH OF THE CENTER...THE REALITY IS THAT THIS BAND OF RAIN
IS PRODUCING 2-4 INCHES OF RAIN PER HOUR. NOW IS A GOOD TIME TO
REMIND PEOPLE THAT RADAR DOES NOT MEASURE THE INTENSITY OF
RAINFALL...BUT RATHER MEASURES HOW WELL THE TARGETS ARE REFLECTING
THE RADAR SIGNAL WHICH ENDS UP BEING MORE OF A FUNCTION OF HOW BIG
THE HYDROMETEOR IS. TROPICAL RAINFALL IS USUALLY COMPOSED OF SMALL
2 TO 3 MM DIAMETER RAINDROPS WHILE CONTINENTAL CONVECTION HAS MUCH
LARGER RAINDROPS AND OFTEN IS COMPOSED OF HIGHLY REFLECTIVE ICE
PARTICLES IN THE CLOUD. SO THAT IS WHY WE GET MORE CONCERNED ABOUT
HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THESE TYPES OF SYSTEMS EVEN THOUGH THE RADAR
PRESENTATION LOOKS WEAKER THAN NORMAL THUNDERSTORMS.

THE CENTER SHOULD CONTINUE ITS NORTHWARD MOTION DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AND THE CORE RAINFALL WILL SPREAD INTO THE
SOUTHERN CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT...HEADING NORTH INTO THE DFW METROPLEX
BY DAYBREAK. BY MIDDAY...WE WILL SEE AN EXPANSION OF THE
CONVECTION THAT WILL COVER MORE OF THE AREA. THIS WILL INCLUDE A
TORNADO THREAT IF INSTABILITY IS HIGH ENOUGH MAINLY EAST OF I-35.
97. JRRP

see you tomorrow
Quoting 76. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

thanks for the update bill and carlos


lol


Bill henson and Dr. Carlos masters
Lack of posts here tonight is a great sign. This is not Kill Bill IIII. Glad this is not a Memorial day part two. Not yet at least, and it's not looking like it's going to be. 300+ million Americans and this is all we can muster here? We are tuned out. No surprise. Sad. Speaks volumes. What do we ship internationally? Ignorance. Most money world wide, best tech, most obliviousness. But we have the Kardashian's and the thigh gap. I'm going to go puke now.
Quoting 96. TropicalAnalystwx13:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
933 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015

.UPDATE...
TROPICAL STORM BILL HAS PICKED UP SOME STEADY NORTHWARD MOTION
THIS EVENING AFTER DAWDLING ALONG THE ALONG THE MIDDLE TEXAS
COAST EARLIER TODAY. NOW THAT THE SUN IS SETTING THE CONVECTION IS
CONSOLIDATING AROUND THE CORE OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THIS
PROCESS IS COMMON WITH TROPICAL SYSTEMS AFTER THEY MOVE INLAND.
ESSENTIALLY WHAT IS HAPPENING IS THAT WITH THE SUN SETTING THE
TEMPERATURES COOL ALL AROUND THE TROPICAL SYSTEM WHERE SKIES ARE
CLEAR. THESE COOLING TEMPERATURES RESULT IN INCREASING
PRESSURES...THEREBY INCREASING THE RELATIVE STRENGTH AND LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AT THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL SYSTEM. THIS
CONSOLIDATING CONVECTIVE CENTER...OFTEN CALLED CORE RAINS...CAN
PRODUCE TREMENDOUS AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND
MORNING HOURS. WHEN THE SUN COMES BACK UP THE GROUND HEATS
UP...AND PRESSURES FALL ALL AROUND THE TROPICAL LOW. THIS THEREBY
DECREASES THE RELATIVE STRENGTH OF THE LOW AND CONVERGENCE DURING
THE DAYTIME HOURS...AND WE SEE AN EXPANSION OF THE COVERAGE OF
RAINFALL. BECAUSE SURFACE TEMPERATURES DO NOT CHANGE MUCH FROM
DAY TO NIGHT OVER OCEANS...IT IS ONE OF THE MANY REASONS TROPICAL
CYCLONES FORM OVER THE OCEAN BECAUSE THE CONVECTION CAN STAY NEAR
THE CENTER OF THE LOW THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS.

VERY INTENSE CONVECTION HAS FORMED NEAR THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE AS IT NOW NEARS THE CITY OF LA GRANGE. WHILE THE RADAR
PRESENTATION MAY NOT LOOK IMPRESSIVE...WITH VALUES ONLY 45-55 DBZ
JUST NORTH OF THE CENTER...THE REALITY IS THAT THIS BAND OF RAIN
IS PRODUCING 2-4 INCHES OF RAIN PER HOUR. NOW IS A GOOD TIME TO
REMIND PEOPLE THAT RADAR DOES NOT MEASURE THE INTENSITY OF
RAINFALL...BUT RATHER MEASURES HOW WELL THE TARGETS ARE REFLECTING
THE RADAR SIGNAL WHICH ENDS UP BEING MORE OF A FUNCTION OF HOW BIG
THE HYDROMETEOR IS. TROPICAL RAINFALL IS USUALLY COMPOSED OF SMALL
2 TO 3 MM DIAMETER RAINDROPS WHILE CONTINENTAL CONVECTION HAS MUCH
LARGER RAINDROPS AND OFTEN IS COMPOSED OF HIGHLY REFLECTIVE ICE
PARTICLES IN THE CLOUD. SO THAT IS WHY WE GET MORE CONCERNED ABOUT
HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THESE TYPES OF SYSTEMS EVEN THOUGH THE RADAR
PRESENTATION LOOKS WEAKER THAN NORMAL THUNDERSTORMS.

THE CENTER SHOULD CONTINUE ITS NORTHWARD MOTION DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AND THE CORE RAINFALL WILL SPREAD INTO THE
SOUTHERN CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT...HEADING NORTH INTO THE DFW METROPLEX
BY DAYBREAK. BY MIDDAY...WE WILL SEE AN EXPANSION OF THE
CONVECTION THAT WILL COVER MORE OF THE AREA. THIS WILL INCLUDE A
TORNADO THREAT IF INSTABILITY IS HIGH ENOUGH MAINLY EAST OF I-35.


Was just about to post this, great discussion if you want to learn how landfalling tropical cyclones work. With that said, must be lot and lots of heavy rain and flooding under there.

NHC's discussion is A++. For the few thousands of Americans who are paying any attention. NHC has done, again, an amazing job!
So sad. On an epic level. I follow what's happening world wide on every level. We just don't care, we are just that stupid. Most info, most entertained; guess who wins? We are falling in the West. We will not know it until we land. Try jumping out of a fifty foot tree. Suicide by obliviousness is still suicide.
Thanks for posting the Dallas TX discussion Cody. A great read.

Giddings, Giddings-Lee County Airport
Quoting 101. DeepSeaRising:

Lack of posts here tonight is a great sign. This is not Kill Bill IIII. Glad this is not a Memorial day part two. Not yet at least, and it's not looking like it's going to be. 300+ million Americans and this is all we can muster here? We are tuned out. No surprise. Sad. Speaks volumes. What do we ship internationally? Ignorance. Most money world wide, best tech, most obliviousness. But we have the Kardashian's and the thigh gap. I'm going to go puke now.

yeah its a rain event now as the next few days go by
that means slow build up to whatever its gonna end up
now we look for the next angry cloud over the water
107. vis0

Quoting 66. hydrus:

They are color enhanced for temp differences. GOES Sounder has more, maybe even over done colors, but it is what it is...

GOES Imager Cloud Top Pressure
June 17, 2015 - 00:45 UTC.....



from funktop to peterMaxtop
The lowest current pressure I found.

La Grange, Fayette Regional Air Center Airport
Quoting 101. DeepSeaRising:

Lack of posts here tonight is a great sign. This is not Kill Bill IIII. Glad this is not a Memorial day part two. Not yet at least, and it's not looking like it's going to be. 300+ million Americans and this is all we can muster here? We are tuned out. No surprise. Sad. Speaks volumes. What do we ship internationally? Ignorance. Most money world wide, best tech, most obliviousness. But we have the Kardashian's and the thigh gap. I'm going to go puke now.

Did someone post a Kardashian picture with 'thigh gap'? Where?  I must have missed it... Finally something posted that is not tied to climate  change...
To watch overnight

Waco, TX
Quoting 109. leofarnsworth:


Did someone post a Kardashian picture with 'thigh gap'? Where?  I must have missed it... Finally something posted that is not tied to climate  change...


Where is Naga to post overwhelming evidence..... :) Well, you know I do try. Try looking anywhere else. The truth is so unpopular, or just so not searched for.
Metroplex mess marching

Where did post #96 go?
Lost in the WU ether?
I thought as others did that it was the best short discussion of the weather concerns for tomorrow.
I especially like the talk about size/intensity of raindrops here.
I'll try posting it again.
.
.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1157 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015


TROPICAL STORM BILL HAS PICKED UP SOME STEADY NORTHWARD MOTION
THIS EVENING AFTER DAWDLING ALONG THE ALONG THE MIDDLE TEXAS
COAST EARLIER TODAY. NOW THAT THE SUN IS SETTING THE CONVECTION IS
CONSOLIDATING AROUND THE CORE OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THIS
PROCESS IS COMMON WITH TROPICAL SYSTEMS AFTER THEY MOVE INLAND.
ESSENTIALLY WHAT IS HAPPENING IS THAT WITH THE SUN SETTING THE
TEMPERATURES COOL ALL AROUND THE TROPICAL SYSTEM WHERE SKIES ARE
CLEAR. THESE COOLING TEMPERATURES RESULT IN INCREASING
PRESSURES...THEREBY INCREASING THE RELATIVE STRENGTH AND LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AT THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL SYSTEM. THIS
CONSOLIDATING CONVECTIVE CENTER...OFTEN CALLED CORE RAINS...CAN
PRODUCE TREMENDOUS AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND
MORNING HOURS. WHEN THE SUN COMES BACK UP THE GROUND HEATS
UP...AND PRESSURES FALL ALL AROUND THE TROPICAL LOW. THIS THEREBY
DECREASES THE RELATIVE STRENGTH OF THE LOW AND CONVERGENCE DURING
THE DAYTIME HOURS...AND WE SEE AN EXPANSION OF THE COVERAGE OF
RAINFALL. BECAUSE SURFACE TEMPERATURES DO NOT CHANGE MUCH FROM
DAY TO NIGHT OVER OCEANS...IT IS ONE OF THE MANY REASONS TROPICAL
CYCLONES FORM OVER THE OCEAN BECAUSE THE CONVECTION CAN STAY NEAR
THE CENTER OF THE LOW THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS.

VERY INTENSE CONVECTION HAS FORMED NEAR THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE AS IT NOW NEARS THE CITY OF LA GRANGE. WHILE THE RADAR
PRESENTATION MAY NOT LOOK IMPRESSIVE...WITH VALUES ONLY 45-55 DBZ
JUST NORTH OF THE CENTER...THE REALITY IS THAT THIS BAND OF RAIN
IS PRODUCING 2-4 INCHES OF RAIN PER HOUR. NOW IS A GOOD TIME TO
REMIND PEOPLE THAT RADAR DOES NOT MEASURE THE INTENSITY OF
RAINFALL...BUT RATHER MEASURES HOW WELL THE TARGETS ARE REFLECTING
THE RADAR SIGNAL WHICH ENDS UP BEING MORE OF A FUNCTION OF HOW BIG
THE HYDROMETEOR IS. TROPICAL RAINFALL IS USUALLY COMPOSED OF SMALL
2 TO 3 MM DIAMETER RAINDROPS WHILE CONTINENTAL CONVECTION HAS MUCH
LARGER RAINDROPS AND OFTEN IS COMPOSED OF HIGHLY REFLECTIVE ICE
PARTICLES IN THE CLOUD. SO THAT IS WHY WE GET MORE CONCERNED ABOUT
HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THESE TYPES OF SYSTEMS EVEN THOUGH THE RADAR
PRESENTATION LOOKS WEAKER THAN NORMAL THUNDERSTORMS.

THE CENTER SHOULD CONTINUE ITS NORTHWARD MOTION DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AND THE CORE RAINFALL WILL SPREAD INTO THE
SOUTHERN CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT...HEADING NORTH INTO THE DFW METROPLEX
BY DAYBREAK. BY MIDDAY...WE WILL SEE AN EXPANSION OF THE
CONVECTION THAT WILL COVER MORE OF THE AREA. THIS WILL INCLUDE A
TORNADO THREAT IF INSTABILITY IS HIGH ENOUGH MAINLY EAST OF I-35.

FOR THE FORECAST UPDATE...HAVE REDUCED POPS AND QPF ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WHERE MOST
OF THE RAIN WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL AROUND DAYBREAK AND BEYOND.
OTHERWISE NO CHANGES WERE NEEDED.

TR.92
Hmmm I never saw #96 disappear and I can see it now. The site has been more erratic since the 'upgrade'.
Checking my counter. Did the verify account thing.
Quoting 104. DeepSeaRising:

So sad. On an epic level. I follow what's happening world wide on every level. We just don't care, we are just that stupid. Most info, most entertained; guess who wins? We are falling in the West. We will not know it until we land. Try jumping out of a fifty foot tree. Suicide by obliviousness is still suicide.


Quoting 109. leofarnsworth:


Did someone post a Kardashian picture with 'thigh gap'? Where?  I must have missed it... Finally something posted that is not tied to climate  change...

Wall.... I dunno aboot the Thigh Gap, but the gap between me and me bed be too big .... I'm off to the land of nod, but will check in in a couple hours to see whether we will indeed get a "landocane" out of dear Bill ...

I wonder if this Bill is going to try to sit on the steps of Capitol Hill and sing a song .... "I'm just a Bill" ....
Long range radar loop from NWS Corpus Christi , TX. Nice batch of mod to heavy rain offshore, likely with some strong wind gusts.

Link
Quoting 117. BahaHurican:

Wall.... I dunno aboot the Thigh Gap, but the gap between me and me bed be too big .... I'm off to the land of nod, but will check in in a couple hours to see whether we will indeed get a "landocane" out of dear Bill ...

I wonder if this Bill is going to try to sit on the steps of Capitol Hill and sing a song .... "I'm just a Bill" ....

maybe

it will be looking more like a land-o-cane after noon tomorrow

enjoy the sleep
Quoting 114. BaltimoreBrian:

Hmmm I never saw #96 disappear and I can see it now. The site has been more erratic since the 'upgrade'.
Minor point, but that's odd,
When I saw your post I went back to plus #96, and it was gone.
Still mia.
Cosmic did you click the hide button by mistake? The eye with the slash through it on the far right.
Quoting 121. CosmicEvents:

Minor point, but that's odd,
When I saw your post I went back to plus #96, and it was gone.
Still mia.
no changes to the comment I still see it
Quoting 122. BaltimoreBrian:

Cosmic did you click the hide button by mistake? The eye with the slash through it on the far right.
Anythings's possible....but I saw your post and VaBeach's post ad went back and it was gone. Since everyone including keep is saying it's still there....I'll just go ahead and assume my finger slipped by mistake. It's a minor point in any case, probably should have never mentioned it. Still a top notch discussion from Ft. Worth NWS. gn
125. vis0
Here sar2401 so the let down from following BILL is not to harsh, reads these (i can't,  just noticed their titles and thought hmm besides my sister whom else likes to read...) since i have not read them do not know there content except it has Hurricanes/Monsoons in their titles.

A  PPT::

https://www.ghrsst.org/files/download.php?m=docum ents&f=Liu-GHRSST-hurricane.ppt
A  PDF::
http://www.researchgate.net/profile/Jianping_Li7/ publication/235956254_Boreal_spring_Southern_Hemis phere_Annular_Mode_Indian_Ocean_sea_surface_temper ature_and_East_Asian_summer_monsoon/links/0f317532 6f55d6c663000000.pdf
A  PDF:: (Decadal variability in the Southern Hemisphere - Lamont ..-)
http://www.ldeo.columbia.edu/res/div/ocp/pub/yuan /Yuan_Yonekura2011.pdf
Obligatory "ZOMG We're ahead of 2005" post... (TS Bret didn't form until June 28th, 2005)

:)
Link

Flash Flood warnings.
"Are you not entertained!"


Quoting 101. DeepSeaRising:

Lack of posts here tonight is a great sign. This is not Kill Bill IIII. Glad this is not a Memorial day part two. Not yet at least, and it's not looking like it's going to be. 300+ million Americans and this is all we can muster here? We are tuned out. No surprise. Sad. Speaks volumes. What do we ship internationally? Ignorance. Most money world wide, best tech, most obliviousness. But we have the Kardashian's and the thigh gap. I'm going to go puke now.
A few big river risings...





...but overall, as mentioned, it doesn't look like we've seen anything close to a worst case scenario from Bill. Looks to be just the "tail" section of the storm that's causing a few problems. The "core" rainfall area is too light to be a big deal.
dangerous.setup...A.Front&A.Cyclone
This looks like the worst of it at the moment:

ATL: Bill is still a tropical cyclone I see. It is going to bring some tropical storm force winds at times with some rainfall. Tornadoes are still possible with this depression as it moves toward Oklahoma. It will become Post-Tropical and be absorbed into a front in a few days. Short lived system it seems.

EPAC: Carlos is a Tropical Storm that is dramatically weakening and will become Post-Tropical soon. TS conditions will still persist along the Mexican coast.

Read more...
rains falling over the same area's,going to be a lot of flooding around texas, numerous flash flood warnings out there
folks in the panhandle area drink plenty of fluids today,stay safe up there...................................NPWTAE

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
343 AM EDT WED JUN 17 2015

FLZ015>019-026>029-034-115-118-127-128-134-GAZ120> 131-142>148-
155>161-172200-
/O.NEW.KTAE.HT.Y.0001.150617T1700Z-150617T2200Z/
INLAND FRANKLIN-GADSDEN-LEON-INLAND JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY-
INLAND WAKULLA-INLAND TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-INLAND DIXIE-
COASTAL FRANKLIN-COASTAL JEFFERSON-COASTAL WAKULLA-COASTAL TAYLOR-
COASTAL DIXIE-QUITMAN-CLAY-RANDOLPH-CALHOUN-TERRELL-DOUGHE RTY-LEE-
WORTH-TURNER-TIFT-BEN HILL-IRWIN-EARLY-MILLER-BAKER-MITCHELL-
COLQUITT-COOK-BERRIEN-SEMINOLE-DECATUR-GRADY-THOMA S-BROOKS-
LOWNDES-LANIER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...APALACHICOLA...CARRABELLE...QUINCY...
CHATTAHOOCHEE...TALLAHASSEE...SPRING HILL...MONTICELLO...
MADISON...GREENVILLE...SWEETWATER...SOPCHOPPY...ST . MARKS...
PERRY...MIDWAY...MAYO...CROSS CITY...GEORGETOWN...FORT GAINES...
CUTHBERT...SHELLMAN...ARLINGTON...MORGAN...EDISON. ..LEARY...
DAWSON...ALBANY...LEESBURG...SMITHVILLE...SYLVESTE R...ASHBURN...
TIFTON...FITZGERALD...OCILLA...DOUGLASVILLE...BLAK ELY...
COLQUITT...NEWTON...CAMILLA...PELHAM...MOULTRIE... ADEL...SPARKS...
NASHVILLE...DONALSONVILLE...BAINBRIDGE...CAIRO...T HOMASVILLE...
QUITMAN...VALDOSTA...LAKELAND
343 AM EDT WED JUN 17 2015

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM EDT
THIS EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE HAS ISSUED A HEAT
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM
EDT THIS EVENING.

* TEMPERATURE...AROUND 100 DEGREES.

* MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX...106 TO 110 DEGREES.

* IMPACTS...HIGH HEAT INDEX VALUES COULD CREATE HEAT ILLNESSES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HEAT ADVISORY IS ISSUED WHEN THE COMBINATION OF HOT TEMPERATURES
AND HIGH HUMIDITIES CREATES HEAT INDICES OF 108 UP TO 112 DEGREES.
HIGH HEAT INDEX VALUES CAN CREATE DANGEROUSLY HOT CONDITIONS WHERE
INDIVIDUALS MAY BECOME CRITICALLY EXHAUSTED IF OUTDOORS. DRINK
PLENTY OF FLUIDS...STAY IN AN AIR-CONDITIONING IF POSSIBLE...
REMAIN OUT OF THE SUN...AND CHECK ON RELATIVES AND NEIGHBORS WHO
MAY BE SENSITIVE TO HEAT RELATED ILLNESSES. TAKE EXTRA PRECAUTIONS
IF YOU WORK OR SPEND TIME OUTSIDE. ANYONE OVERCOME BY HEAT SHOULD
BE MOVED TO A COOL AND SHADED LOCATION. HEAT STROKE IS AN
EMERGENCY...CALL 911.

&&

$$
Good Morning Everyone..

The UKMET is showing some serious flooding..Bill just "slowly" moves..almost stalling..











Looks like Bill will be taking his trek around that sexy high in the SE in enough time to give us here in the NE a brief visit as a senior citizen. Hope he makes it to us before expiring into storm heaven, I'd like to meet him.


142. MahFL
It was sad to see The Weather Channel's Al Roker reporting from Dallas in the rain from TD Bill, except he was standing under a tent, with the rain in the back ground. What a freaking Prima Donna.
Boy, not hard to pick out the High that is parked over the SE keeping most of the SE dry and hot.
.NEW.KHGX.FF.W.0094.150617T1129Z-150617T1330Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z .OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
629 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
WHARTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
JACKSON COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
MATAGORDA COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...

* UNTIL 830 AM CDT

* AT 626 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING
VERY HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. FLASH FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE. THREE TO SEVEN INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN ACROSS THIS AREA WITH AN
ADDITIONAL ONE TO TWO INCHES LIKELY.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
MATAGORDA...BAY CITY...EL CAMPO...WHARTON...EDNA...PALACIOS...SOUTH
TEXAS NUCLEAR PLANT...GANADO...LA WARD...MARKHAM...VAN VLECK...
PIERCE...LOLITA...BLESSING...HUNGERFORD...CORDELE. ..WADSWORTH...
EGYPT...LAKE TEXANA DAM AND MORALES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED ROADS. MOST FLOOD
DEATHS OCCUR IN VEHICLES.

&&
Quoting 145. LargoFl:
.NEW.KHGX.FF.W.0094.150617T1129Z-150617T1330Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z .OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
629 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
WHARTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
JACKSON COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
MATAGORDA COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...

* UNTIL 830 AM CDT

* AT 626 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING
VERY HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. FLASH FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE. THREE TO SEVEN INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN ACROSS THIS AREA WITH AN
ADDITIONAL ONE TO TWO INCHES LIKELY.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
MATAGORDA...BAY CITY...EL CAMPO...WHARTON...EDNA...PALACIOS...SOUTH
TEXAS NUCLEAR PLANT...GANADO...LA WARD...MARKHAM...VAN VLECK...
PIERCE...LOLITA...BLESSING...HUNGERFORD...CORDELE . ..WADSWORTH...
EGYPT...LAKE TEXANA DAM AND MORALES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED ROADS. MOST FLOOD
DEATHS OCCUR IN VEHICLES.

&&


Drivers sometimes make the mistake that having traveled a particular road they are well aquainted with it and can 'pass through' a flooded portion becasue they percieve it passable. What they fail to understand is that many times the roads simply wash away underneath that is unseen and that is when they get stuck and possibly drown. Beware of flooded roads - turn around.
New Jamstec run for Nino 3.4 has updated and is now showing a Super El-Nino along with most models now. Jamstec is coming in at 2.3C!

I would say over 75% of models are now over 2C


JB said I quote " All the models are seeing a spectacular SOI Crash". Folks if this does indeed happen then this could be awesome news for SE US as possibly a complete pattern reversal maybe on the way with cooler and wetter than average conditions going into July.

We could SOI nagatives -50 to -70 on the daily averages if these models pan out.

Ominous! 0Z Euro
Good Morning. Amazingly (Brown Ocean Effect), Bills overall structure appears well intact as it moves up the Eastern part of Texas:

South Plains sector loop
Lots of t-storms beginning to fill in dry zone between the Corpus and Victory region heading east and north. Heavy rain currently falling in the Freeport/Lake Jackson area with decent wind gusts. Wet Wed. indeed.
New Jamstec is showing below average temps on average for the SE the next few months. Also wetter than average too. Again the models are seeing an SOI crash that will rival some of the biggest falls ever leading to a massive weather pattern change across the US. I hope this is correct because I registered 99 in Apopka off Rock Springs RD yesterday.


152. yoboi
Quoting 148. StormTrackerScott:

JB said I quote " All the models are seeing a spectacular SOI Crash". Folks if this does indeed happen then this could be awesome news for SE US as possibly a complete pattern reversal maybe on the way with cooler and wetter than average conditions going into July.

We could SOI nagatives -50 to -70 on the daily averages if these models pan out.

Ominous! 0Z Euro



The month of May the U.S. was cool...Don't hear many people talking about that..
Overall I see relief for the SE US so you guys in 2 weeks across the SE US say thank you Scott!
So far we dodges a bullet here in Houston. Amazing what a difference 30 - 50 miles makes with these...
We did have some minor flooding but to give you an idea how fast it can happen, I was taking my wife to the Doctor when one of the fast moving bands came over and the amount of rain coming down was insane. We were driving down a street and in the space of about 1/2 a mile and 10 minutes, the curbs were not visible as they were under water. I wish I had taken video...

It did drain within about an hour so we were lucky. If there has been just ONE training band in the wrong place, this would have been an entirely different story. I know a lot of locals here are screaming about the news stations over-blowing the story, but the fact is we got lucky. Lots of new people in town since Allison. The fact that they are calling the Memorial Day flooding "Historic Flooding" makes me chuckle as I can think of at least 10 major flooding events I have witnessed that were much worse. It is Houston, it floods. Every time it floods there is always at least one person on the news that states "It has never flooded here before!" So I dont think things were over blown. Better safe than sorry. Still *Not Quite* out of the woods yet but quickly getting there. From the designation of the invest to this mornings Brown Ocean, Bill has been a fascinating system.
so I guess you just don't have nothing better to do
well I grow tried of the idiot humor quickly
and well ur time is just about up
say goodbye I am sure everyone will be very upset
about missing your invaluable input here on the blogs
Quoting 152. yoboi:



The month of May the U.S. was cool...Don't hear many people talking about that..


LOL! You won't hear that on here. Referring to the US the JJA outlook on the Jamstec looks to be the coolest in years across the US. Only warmer than average place maybe FL and New England.
remove the quote or I will remove it for ya shortly
Interesting perspective from the Pope's (I am Catholic) pending statement on the issue of climate change; well thought out comment:


The pope adds that there are damaging health effects, particularly for the poor, from fossil fuel pollution. He talks about the damage to ecosystems from soil and water acidification and links it all to a "culture of waste." In one of his more intriguing passages on biological systems, he notes that humanity has failed to realize that "operation of natural ecosystems is exemplary," in that their processing of organic waste gives rise to a new generation of plants.

"In contrast, the industrial system, at the end of its cycle of production and consumption, has not developed the ability to absorb and reuse waste and slag," he writes in the draft. "We have not yet succeeded in adopting a circular pattern of production which ensures resources for all and for the future generations, and which requires us to limit the use of non-renewable resources, to moderate consumption, to maximize the efficiency of the exploitation, to reuse and to recycle."

Quoting 159. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

remove the quote or I will remove it for ya shortly


Did I do something wrong?
everything is fine scott its not you
Quoting 162. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

everything is fine scott its not you


Some post are blocked so I don't see them all. Probably a good thing keeper.
Quoting 152. yoboi:



The month of May the U.S. was cool...Don't hear many people talking about that..


You don't hear people talking about it because it isn't true. The NCDC states that the US May average was about .6F higher than the 20th century average, which is average. See for yourself.

Globally, the year so far is the warmest on record by a good margin and there is a very high likelihood that this year will be the warmest on record.

Near Round Rock, just North of Austin.

I would say that, vs the storms we saw in May, Bill would probably be ranked #4, in terms of rain volume, and #6 in terms of intensity.

What a dud.

I know there's a bit more to come, but that'll probably be just East of us.

Yawn.
Quoting 143. 69Viking:

Boy, not hard to pick out the High that is parked over the SE keeping most of the SE dry and hot.
And the high is expanding west. That may help end some of the flooding threat on the Texas coast, but it also means continued hot and rotten weather for us. It's already 88 here with a dewpoint of 75. This heat wouldn't be so bad if we were getting some drier air with it but we're not.We have the kind of air mass that's so humid we usually get thunderstorms but the atmosphere is just too stable. There's really nothing upstream except the remnants of Bill that could help, and it appears it will stay too far north for us to benefit. While it's well over 100 degrees across large swaths of the Southeast, there will be relatively cool temperatures and flooding across places like Kentucky and Ohio. I took Radar Dog for his walk at midnight, when the temperature finally dropped below 85. I did get down to 76. Maybe I should take for a walk at five in the morning instead. I'm getting the redneck version of cabin fever. :-)
Quoting 148. StormTrackerScott:
JB said I quote " All the models are seeing a spectacular SOI Crash". Folks if this does indeed happen then this could be awesome news for SE US as possibly a complete pattern reversal maybe on the way with cooler and wetter than average conditions going into July.

We could SOI nagatives -50 to -70 on the daily averages if these models pan out.

Ominous! 0Z Euro


Amazing that it will be sunny and hot the rest of this week here in St. Lucie and Martin counties. This ridge is causing a remarkable absence of precip for this time of year.
I remember Hurricane Beulah back in the late 60's. We had major flooding in Corpus Christi, TX after the storm. I'm hoping that doesn't happen in this case. We don't need anymore flooding-Corpus is still trying to find two of the children that drowned in the Wimberly floods, not to mention all the other lives lost this year from flooding.
169. beell
Quoting 149. weathermanwannabe:

Good Morning. Amazingly (Brown Ocean Effect), Bills overall structure appears well intact as it moves up the Eastern part of Texas:

South Plains sector loop


I think we all have forgotten what a decently formed, land-falling tropical cyclone looks and acts like as it moves inland. It's been a while.
(yrmv)
A SOI drop like this should cause a trough in the East going into JULY. Maybe a trough split scenario too of the SE US first week of JULY.

Michael Ventrice ‏@MJVentrice 6m6 minutes ago Cambridge, MA
SOI to drop into the -3 to -4 standard deviations below average territory next week... SOI is a noisy index though
Quoting 165. WhoDatRR:

Near Round Rock, just North of Austin.

I would say that, vs the storms we saw in May, Bill would probably be ranked #4, in terms of rain volume, and #6 in terms of intensity.

What a dud.

I know there's a bit more to come, but that'll probably be just East of us.

Yawn.


Bill turned out to be more of a bum than anything. Good news that Bill didn't produce the type of rain forecasters were harping on across Texas.
Quoting 169. beell:


I think we all have forgotten what a decently formed, land-falling tropical cyclone looks and acts like as it moves inland. It's been a while.
(yrmv)


TS Bill looked better after it approached the Texas coast. It is the awesomeness of these storms that make for good conversation.
WGUS84 KHGX 171246
FLSHGX

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
746 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2015

TXC071-201-291-373-407-171445-
/O.NEW.KHGX.FA.Y.0148.150617T1246Z-150617T1445Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
LIBERTY TX-POLK TX-HARRIS TX-SAN JACINTO TX-CHAMBERS TX-
746 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
LIBERTY COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
SOUTH CENTRAL POLK COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
SOUTHEASTERN HARRIS COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
SOUTHEASTERN SAN JACINTO COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
NORTHWESTERN CHAMBERS COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...

* UNTIL 945 AM CDT

* AT 744 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A NORTH TO SOUTH ORIENTED BAND
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL. THIS WILL LIKELY
CAUSE MINOR FLOODING IN THE ADVISORY AREA.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
EASTERN PASADENA...BAYTOWN...LA PORTE...DEER PARK...NORTHWESTERN
SEABROOK...WEBSTER...LIBERTY...DAYTON...LIVINGSTON ...CLEAR LAKE...
BARRETT...CHANNELVIEW...HIGHLANDS...EASTERN SOUTH BELT /
ELLINGTON...CROSBY...NASSAU BAY...MONT BELVIEU...TAYLOR LAKE
VILLAGE...EL LAGO AND SHOREACRES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

&&

Quoting 169. beell:



I think we all have forgotten what a decently formed, land-falling tropical cyclone looks and acts like as it moves inland. It's been a while.
(yrmv)
Also what a 1000 mb low inland looks like. It does happen, brown or no brown. We just haven't seen it much lately.
Quoting 166. sar2401:

And the high is expanding west. That may help end some of the flooding threat on the Texas coast, but it also means continued hot and rotten weather for us. It's already 88 here with a dewpoint of 75. This heat wouldn't be so bad if we were getting some drier air with it but we're not.We have the kind of air mass that's so humid we usually get thunderstorms but the atmosphere is just too stable. There's really nothing upstream except the remnants of Bill that could help, and it appears it will stay too far north for us to benefit. While it's well over 100 degrees across large swaths of the Southeast, there will be relatively cool temperatures and flooding across places like Kentucky and Ohio. I took Radar Dog for his walk at midnight, when the temperature finally dropped below 85. I did get down to 76. Maybe I should take for a walk at five in the morning instead. I'm getting the redneck version of cabin fever. :-)


I go for my daily run at 5 AM nearly every week day; that is the only bearable time to exercise outside in Tampa this time of the year. Another thunderstorm moved across Tampa last night but broke up right as it neared my location so I only received a couple drops. While the rest of the SE US receives nearly no rain due to this stubborn ridge, the west coast of FL is the lucky recipient of the sea breeze collision storms. It was miserably hot here yesterday, and was still 92 degrees at my location at 6:30 PM.
Thanks for taking a few days off from your endless pandering of misinformation Yoboi. Give you that while Bill came through.
Quoting 169. beell:



I think we all have forgotten what a decently formed, land-falling tropical cyclone looks and acts like as it moves inland. It's been a while.
(yrmv)


Yeah; the overall structure for Bill has looked better after landfall than it did for most of it's period in the Gulf. Same issue with Wilma I believe several years ago when it crossed the flat warm Everglades from the Naples area across to Fort Lauderdale on the East coast of Florida. Not a brown ocean effect per se (over a swamp) but the eyewall did not degrade after landfall.
(quote removed)
To observe for brown ocean/red dirt effect I think we need to watch pressure. Was 999mb last eve at 7pm, 997 prior to that, and is now estimated at 1000mb. Pretty sure part of the "effect" is strengthening over land. A couple days ago GFS and Euro had Bill strengthening in N TX and OK.

As someone else pointed out, sure is interesting "awesomeness"!
Quoting 181. Neapolitan:


Already calling Bill a "bum", are some people? Of course, they're aware that the Bill-related rainfall event isn't over; in fact, it's barely begun in some places, and is still yet to start in others. Parts of east Texas, for example, have many hours of moderate to heavy rainfall to look forward to. And as Bill's remnants are dragged across the top side of the SE high, expect heat, convergence, and ample moisture to cause lots of mischief.

While the official forecasts are intelligently cautious in their approach, calling for a relatively weak TS to bring flooding rains to limited parts of the nation, some here go overboard, screaming that the NHC is waiting to long, that this is going to be a calamitous event, that many will die, and so on. So the problem, then, isn't that Bill isn't living up to the NHC/NOAA/NWS forecasts--it's that it's Bill isn't living up to the hypesters own wishful thinking.

So: maybe dial it down next time? Becoming excited by a landfalling storm is perfectly acceptable. But don't allow that excitement make you see things that just aren't there.


Excuse me? I hardly posted anything about Bill. I made some post yesterday that dry air was getting pulled off the Mexican Platuea which was choking off the whole westside of the circulation. Maybe you should dial it down as it was the whole rest of the blog not me.
Quoting 142. MahFL:

It was sad to see The Weather Channel's Al Roker reporting from Dallas in the rain from TD Bill, except he was standing under a tent, with the rain in the back ground. What a freaking Prima Donna.
Agreed, however its probably better him being there than Cantore. If Cantore was there Bill would have gone through RI and hit as a category 5.lol
you made 14 comments pure trolling nothing more
then cir um vents ban
well i need no more justification
u have an issue with my decision take it up with admin
this is the final comment regarding the issue

see ya
Quoting 164. Xyrus2000:



You don't hear people talking about it because it isn't true. The NCDC states that the US May average was about .6F higher than the 20th century average, which is average. See for yourself.

Globally, the year so far is the warmest on record by a good margin and there is a very high likelihood that this year will be the warmest on record.


What??? What do you mean, not true??? I'm sure S/He must have read that May was cool somewhere. Maybe a reliable weather web site. I'll bet S/He has a source or a link. If not, what else could it be??? Gasp! Is it possible S/He made it up??? Heavens!!!
Scott-
The probable degrading of the SOI will allow a slimmer of normality to allow for rainfall in the East central part of Florida? I really hope so.
Quoting 186. Neapolitan:

Oh, my bad; I must have the other StormTrackerScott confused with you. I read the brand new comment below and mistakenly thought it was yours:


You said I was hyping Bill and needed to tone it down when I hardly posted about Bill. What one can't post that a forecast didn't pan out as forecasters and news media were hyping this like nobody's business. The problem is you have some sort of issue with me and countless others on here. You also come on make snide remarks to people to cause a rift then disappear for days.
Quoting 183. StormTrackerScott:



Excuse me? I hardly posted anything about Bill. I made some post yesterday that dry air was getting pulled off the Mexican Platuea which was choking off the whole westside of the circulation. Maybe you should dial it down as it was the whole rest of the blog not me.


Maybe you should post what Bill Nye posted about Bill..
well I guess I am going to have a busy day it seems
Quoting 111. DeepSeaRising:


imho.. it's not that truth is unpopular.. it's just boring :(
Tropical Storm Bill - Interesting landfall

When nearing the central Texas coast .. Bill did what some of the past named storms have done ...

Bill was moving generally in a northwesterly direction, and ...

Just before making landfall, Bill made a WNW or westerly jog, and came ashore 25 miles W of Port O'Connor, TX.

Looking back at some of the other past central Texas hurricane and tropical storm landfalls, some of them were also moving NW, and moved due westerly, or WSW at landfall. Claudette (2003), and Fern (1971).

Was this "wobble" or westerly movement caused by the building high pressure to the east?

Quoting 177. tampabaymatt:



I go for my daily run at 5 AM nearly every week day; that is the only bearable time to exercise outside in Tampa this time of the year. Another thunderstorm moved across Tampa last night but broke up right as it neared my location so I only received a couple drops. While the rest of the SE US receives nearly no rain due to this stubborn ridge, the west coast of FL is the lucky recipient of the sea breeze collision storms. It was miserably hot here yesterday, and was still 92 degrees at my location at 6:30 PM.
I guess I'll just have to get used the five in the morning thing. It's usually in the mid-70's by 9:00 pm even when we we have a normal hot day. These haven't been normal hot days. BMX finally issued a heat advisory for heat index readings of 105. The heat index has been above 105 for the last two days. As BMX is fond of saying, I'm just in a "far SE county" though, so no big deal, as long as it's not really hot in Birmingham, or someplace important. They did say this morning they have been scouring the charts looking for "nuances" of rain or cooler weather. The verdict? No nuances today. Maybe tomorrow...
Quoting 158. StormTrackerScott:



LOL! You won't hear that on here. Referring to the US the JJA outlook on the Jamstec looks to be the coolest in years across the US. Only warmer than average place maybe FL and New England.

I am confused. In support of a flaming denier, you cite a JJA forecast that predicts below average temps over the 48 contiguous states but which also predicts above average temps over almost every other land mass on the globe. The only way this makes any sense is if you are mocking yoboi, but that doesn't seem to be your style, so I don't know if you were trying to get yoboi to trip over his shoelaces or if you have inadverntly tripped over yours. In any case, claiming credit for a cool down in the Southeast that may happen in two weeks is a bit much, even by your ...um...unique standards.
Waco in the lead from "Official" stations.....


TEXAS TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX



*DUE TO A SYSTEM WIDE OUTAGE OVERNIGHT SOME
PRECIPITATIN DATA MAY BE UPDATED LATER TODAY.

751 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2015

DATA THROUGH 7AM CDT
VALUES REPRESENT HIGHS YESTERDAY...LOWS OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS
AND PRECIPITATION OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS


ACT :Waco : 87 / M / 3.48
Quoting 192. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

well I guess I am going to have a busy day it seems
There is no rest for the weary sometimes. I have no idea what's going on but I just want to let you konw. We're all counting on you. And don't call me Shirley. :-)
Quoting 195. sar2401:

I guess I'll just have to get used the five in the morning thing. It's usually in the mid-70's by 9:00 pm even when we we have a normal hot day. These haven't been normal hot days. BMX finally issued a heat advisory for heat index readings of 105. The heat index has been above 105 for the last two days. As BMX is fond of saying, I'm just in a "far SE county" though, so no big deal, as long as it's not really hot in Birmingham, or someplace important. They did say this morning they have been scouring the charts looking for "nuances" of rain or cooler weather. The verdict? No nuances today. Maybe tomorrow...


Is your location considered part of the Birmingham NWS coverage area? That seems strange to me. I'd think Mobile or Montgomery, or something closer to you, would have a NWS branch. Huh, learn something new every day. Here is what the Tampa NWS has to say about our weather today. They seem very optimistic :)

...HEAT INDEX TO REACH 104 TO 106 FROM MACDILL AFB TO VALRICO AND
NORTHWARD THROUGH INVERNESS...BRONSON AND THE VILLAGES...

HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA OF >108 WILL NOT BE MET BUT IT WILL FEEL
MISERABLE FOR SEVERAL HOURS THIS AFTERNOON. WE HAVE BEEN ABOUT
3 DEGREES TOO COOL IN THIS AREA PAST FEW DAYS SO RAISED AFTERNOON
HIGHS TO 95 OR 96 DEGREES.
Quoting 196. ACSeattle:


I am confused. In support of a flaming denier, you cite a JJA forecast that predicts below average temps over the 48 contiguous states but which also predicts above average temps over almost every other land mass on the globe. The only way this makes any sense is if you are mocking yoboi, but that doesn't seem to be your style, so I don't know if you were trying to get yoboi to trip over his shoelaces or if you have inadverntly tripped over yours. In any case, claiming credit for a cool down in the Southeast that may happen in two weeks is a bit much, even by your ...um...unique standards.


Never said i denied anything I just said the US will be cooler than average as a whole. I mean come on some of you guys are just as bad the one's you guys poke fun at all the time.
---Ye shall not pass!
--kog
Quoting 197. nrtiwlnvragn:

Waco in the lead from "Official" stations.....


TEXAS TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX



*DUE TO A SYSTEM WIDE OUTAGE OVERNIGHT SOME
PRECIPITATIN DATA MAY BE UPDATED LATER TODAY.

751 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2015

DATA THROUGH 7AM CDT
VALUES REPRESENT HIGHS YESTERDAY...LOWS OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS
AND PRECIPITATION OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS


ACT :Waco : 87 / M / 3.48
I noticed the surface maps this morning are saying "Limited surface observations across the United States were available for this analysis". It appears this was some kind of nationwide outage, not just Texas. Have you heard any more about it?
Quoting 169. beell:



I think we all have forgotten what a decently formed, land-falling tropical cyclone looks and acts like as it moves inland. It's been a while.
(yrmv)
Damn good thing it was not a slow mover while over the water. This could have very well become qa significant hurricane, and a decent sized one at that.
Quoting 202. sar2401:

I noticed the surface maps this morning are saying "Limited surface observations across the United States were available for this analysis". It appears this was some kind of nationwide outage, not just Texas. Have you heard any more about it?

sar, where are you seeing that? I'm not seeing those messages?
Quoting 142. MahFL:

It was sad to see The Weather Channel's Al Roker reporting from Dallas in the rain from TD Bill, except he was standing under a tent, with the rain in the back ground. What a freaking Prima Donna.
Well, if Mr. Potato-Head had stood out in the rain and gotten wet he might have become mashed potatoes.
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
TXC015-089-239-321-481-171515-
/O.NEW.KHGX.FF.W.0096.150617T1321Z-150617T1515Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
821 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
WHARTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
SOUTHEASTERN AUSTIN COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
JACKSON COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
NORTHWESTERN MATAGORDA COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...

* UNTIL 1015 AM CDT

* AT 818 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING
TO PRODUCE MODERATE AND HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. FLOODING WILL
CONTINUE. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 INCHES HAVE OCCURRED WITH SOME
AREAS EXPERIENCING 6 TO 12 INCHES OF RAINFALL.


* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
BAY CITY...EL CAMPO...WHARTON...SEALY...EDNA...PALACIOS...
BELLVILLE...EAGLE LAKE...SOUTH TEXAS NUCLEAR PLANT...GANADO...SAN
FELIPE...LA WARD...MARKHAM...PIERCE...LOLITA...BLESSING...
CORDELE...LAKE TEXANA DAM...GARWOOD AND VANDERBILT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED ROADS. MOST FLOOD
DEATHS OCCUR IN VEHICLES.

Link to all Flash Flood Warnings
Test, I've been locked out of the site, a message stating "please verify your account, a email has been sent to the following email to verify", problem is that email is not in use so I couldn't get to it to keep this account open. Is this working?
I am waiting to see where the remnants of Bill go. The SE heat dome will ultimately drive that as it is currently dictating where the flow headed off the East Coast is. Currently a front supposed to go through tomorrow/Friday and then depending on how much that suppresses the ridge/lets it rebuild by the time the moisture associated with Bill passes through will dictate if it rains a lot in the Mid Atlantic or New England.
Quoting 207. RitaEvac:

Test, I've been locked out of the site, a message stating "please verify your account, a email has been sent to the following email to verify", problem is that email is not in use so I couldn't get to it to keep this account open. Is this working?
Yeapers!
Quoting 199. tampabaymatt:



Is your location considered part of the Birmingham NWS coverage area? That seems strange to me. I'd think Mobile or Montgomery, or something closer to you, would have a NWS branch. Huh, learn something new every day. Here is what the Tampa NWS has to say about our weather today. They seem very optimistic :)

...HEAT INDEX TO REACH 104 TO 106 FROM MACDILL AFB TO VALRICO AND
NORTHWARD THROUGH INVERNESS...BRONSON AND THE VILLAGES...

HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA OF >108 WILL NOT BE MET BUT IT WILL FEEL
MISERABLE FOR SEVERAL HOURS THIS AFTERNOON. WE HAVE BEEN ABOUT
3 DEGREES TOO COOL IN THIS AREA PAST FEW DAYS SO RAISED AFTERNOON
HIGHS TO 95 OR 96 DEGREES.
You would think so, Matt, but that would make too much sense. Yes, I am the very last county in the Birmingham CWA. Just to make it more ridiculous, the next county south of me is in the Tallahassee CWA. The county east of me happens to be in Georgia, so it's in the Atlanta CWA. The county just to the west of me is in the Mobile CWA. I have to keep four sets of SAME codes in the weather radio just to get warnings for the areas directly around me. This is a map of the CWA's. It looks like something Boss Tweed would gerrymander. Georgia, the same geographic size as Alabama, has three-quarters of the state covered by one office. We have four. I'm sure this all made sense to someone a long time ago.

Quoting 151. StormTrackerScott:

New Jamstec is showing below average temps on average for the SE the next few months. Also wetter than average too. Again the models are seeing an SOI crash that will rival some of the biggest falls ever leading to a massive weather pattern change across the US. I hope this is correct because I registered 99 in Apopka off Rock Springs RD yesterday.





No break in the heat for the next 14 days in NW Florida if you believe the extended forecast, highs of 90 or better everyday and minimal chances of rain. Damn High pressure needs to move out!
Quoting 210. hydrus:


Amazing that I see a sliver of green along the extreme eastern coast of Florida. I guess projected rainfall there will be between nothing and minimal.
Quoting 207. RitaEvac:

Test, I've been locked out of the site, a message stating "please verify your account, a email has been sent to the following email to verify", problem is that email is not in use so I couldn't get to it to keep this account open. Is this working?
Other people have gotten the same message. It appears to be bogus since most of us haven't. Something has gone haywire with WU - again.
216. etxwx
Quoting 144. GeoffreyWPB:



As the center of Bill pulls away, that area of showers off the Texas coast is amazingly persistent, isn't it?
Couldn't get on yesterday to report what was going on, I thought I was gone for good, and was never going to be able to blog or anything again.
Quoting 216. etxwx:


As the center of Bill pulls away, that area of showers off the Texas coast is amazingly persistent, isn't it?
Quite common..When this happens over water, the tail can develop into a tropical storm.
Quoting 217. RitaEvac:

Couldn't get on yesterday to report what was going on, I thought I was gone for good, and was never going to be able to blog or anything again.
that will never happen unless ya go all mad or somem but I think you will be ok
Quoting 213. 69Viking:



No break in the heat for the next 14 days in NW Florida if you believe the extended forecast, highs of 90 or better everyday and minimal chances of rain. Damn High pressure needs to move out!
Like the long range temperature and precipitation models have been right on the button lately. It was supposed to be cool right through June as forecast in March. Lord knows what they'll come up with next. But, seriously, I have total faith in a Japanese model for three months from now. I'm going to find out where I put my parka.
lol! Today is more of a tropical storm than anything. Getting some on and off heavy rain here in Alvin area. Though I will say we had some light to moderate rain yesterday on and off then moreso in the evening and the power went out for .000478 seconds...other than that, not too much going on. Roads had less people on them ...works for me!


Quoting 217. RitaEvac:

Couldn't get on yesterday to report what was going on, I thought I was gone for good, and was never going to be able to blog or anything again.
Quoting 207. RitaEvac:

Test, I've been locked out of the site, a message stating "please verify your account, a email has been sent to the following email to verify", problem is that email is not in use so I couldn't get to it to keep this account open. Is this working?

That happened to me a while back - the help/support guys fixed it pretty quickly. Although yesterday they were dealing with a cut line and all of the PWS data being inaccessible, so that probably delayed some help...
Quoting 220. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

that will never happen unless ya go all mad or somem but I think you will be ok
What the heck does that mean?
Quoting 207. RitaEvac:

Test, I've been locked out of the site, a message stating "please verify your account, a email has been sent to the following email to verify", problem is that email is not in use so I couldn't get to it to keep this account open. Is this working?


I just got validated out again too. Hasn't happened to me for weeks. It's random, ongoing & attempts keep being made to fix it. The way to fix it the quickest, if you find yourself needing to validate, is to sign out (under the person icon in the upper right) and then sign back in.
lets see how day time heating effects this today

I have yet to make a comment on the heat issue and North Florida;Tallahassee where I live; it's killing me. I work in two different counties up here and have covered parking at one location and uncovered in the other. Car is up to about 125 and baking at the uncovered locale even with the windows cracked all day when I get in...........Roll down the windows, floor it, and drive right to the local Pilot for a large crushed ice Pepsi to cool back down on the way home........................
Quoting 220. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

that will never happen unless ya go all mad or somem but I think you will be ok


lol, keep an eye on this Keeper if you can as a Mod, sounds like others were having same issue about verifying their account. If you no longer use that email then how are you supposed to verify the account by checking the email that doesn't exist anymore. I sent a ticket in yesterday explaining this so I assume they took care of it.
Quoting 207. RitaEvac:

Test, I've been locked out of the site, a message stating "please verify your account, a email has been sent to the following email to verify", problem is that email is not in use so I couldn't get to it to keep this account open. Is this working?


I had the same problem yesterday and first thing this morning. An email from Support advised me to clear my cookies and delete my temporary internet files and that fixed the problem to where I was able to login and post again.
Quoting 222. BrazoriaMan:

lol! Today is more of a tropical storm than anything. Getting some on and off heavy rain here in Alvin area. Though I will say we had some light to moderate rain yesterday on and off then moreso in the evening and the power went out for .000478 seconds...other than that, not too much going on. Roads had less people on them ...works for me!





There was hardly any wind yesterday unless a squall moved thru, it was unbelievably a non event, And yes it's worse today than yesterday, should of went to work yesterday and took today off!
ya that's it just sign out sign back in and it always work

Quoting 226. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

lets see how day time heating effects this today




I think Southern Oklahoma will be under the gun today when that happens. Hopefully the storm keeps moving and we don't see any bad training events that could cause serious flooding to an area with already saturated ground.
Already 82 and feels like 90, going to be another hot one today with little to no rain AGAIN!
That surprised me on the wind...as big as the wind field was. Guess it pooped out or we just missed seeing them, unless like you said a squall came through. Well, at least we got some rain out of it and we won;t have to water yards for a week or two lol.

Quoting 231. RitaEvac:



There was hardly any wind yesterday unless a squall moved thru, it was unbelievably a non event, And yes it's worse today than yesterday, should of went to work yesterday and took today off!
Quoting 233. 69Viking:



I think Southern Oklahoma will be under the gun today when that happens. Hopefully the storm keeps moving and we don't see any bad training events that could cause serious flooding to an area with already saturated ground.


It's been moving rather quick all in all. It also looks to be drifting a bit west of it's forecasted track. I think the problem is going to be when it banks up against the front and turns northeast. OK City, Tulsa, and Springfield will be under the gun of a slowing system being wrung out even more efficiently than now along that front.
Quoting 232. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

ya that's it just sign out sign back in and it always work


So no real problem then, just make the user take care of it. I can't imagine the uproar if this continuing, reoccurring problem was happening on a real site.
Quoting 233. 69Viking:



I think Southern Oklahoma will be under the gun today when that happens. Hopefully the storm keeps moving and we don't see any bad training events that could cause serious flooding to an area with already saturated ground.
The characteristic with this storm so far has been high but short-lived rain rates. As long as that continues there's not going to be serious problems. One can only hope.
Quoting 214. rmbjoe1954:



Amazing that I see a sliver of green along the extreme eastern coast of Florida. I guess projected rainfall there will be between nothing and minimal.
Yep. West coast pattern is or was the usual pattern for this time of year. Bermuda High and the trades push moist air across the state. Then the collision with the west coast seabreeze really fires up some big storms. When conditions are ripe, they can reach over 65,000 feet, and do some serious damage..Good thing it does not happen often, but it can several times a year if conditions permit it.
First full daylight images; amazing: finally filing in the Western quad of the storm...............

Quoting 237. sar2401:

So no real problem then, just make the user take care of it. I can't imagine the uproar if this continuing, reoccurring problem was happening on a real site.

I never said it was not a problem people make those themselves
but its a solution to allow u to get on
till its fixed
Quoting 240. weathermanwannabe:

First full daylight images; amazing: finally filing in the Western quad of the storm...............


the day heat effect should plumb this right up say anytime after 1 or 2 pm edt
243. etxwx
Quoting 219. hydrus:

Quite common..When this happens over water, the tail can develop into a tropical storm.

I was really trying not to think about that. :)
In this part of Jasper County, fortunately, we've had very little rain from this system, it is very humid and steamy this morning though. Humidity 89%; temp 81F on my new weather station. (It works, yay!) Every once in a while, a very brief shower will drift through, looks like that will continue throughout the day.
Last 24 hours of rain, ending at 8 am CDT:


(Source)
Quoting 228. RitaEvac:



lol, keep an eye on this Keeper if you can as a Mod, sounds like others were having same issue about verifying their account. If you no longer use that email then how are you supposed to verify the account by checking the email that doesn't exist anymore. I sent a ticket in yesterday explaining this so I assume they took care of it.
I've had this happen numerous times in the past. The message about the email is generated by an automated script. No email is ever sent. The problem seems to come from a malformed cookie placed on your computer by WU. When the site loads and encounters this, it generates the specious message about the email. As soon as the malformed cookie is replaced by a good one, which will happen automatically, the message will go away. That's why logging out and logging back in will sometimes, but not always, work. This has been happening randomly to me for about five years. I'm sure it'll get fixed any day now.
Flash flood watch for all but western OK. Several river and small stream warnings and advisories out. Been raining on and off for three days as it is. Severe potential today currently marginal, Virgil.

NWS Norman take on the amount of "Tropical Depression" rainfall and timing of it today/tonight.



NWS Tulsa
Quoting 244. LAbonbon:

Last 24 hours of rain, ending at 8 am CDT:


(Source)
Not a lot of people live in the area of heaviest rain. Most of it completely missed the Houston metro area. That's good...but it's bad. A lot of people in Houston feel that they got hyped out of a day of work. It's like the East Coast Blizzard this winter. We don't have the science to be able to make make accurate point forecast for rainfall so the NWS has to make warnings for a larger area. It's even worse when the rain is coming from an area like the Gulf with few reporting stations. Instead of being relieved that the guy who was coming right at you missed, a bunch of people are mad because they braced for the impact but he didn't hit them.
Good morning everybody, Tried to rickroll y'all but it didn't work.
250. yoboi
Quoting 244. LAbonbon:

Last 24 hours of rain, ending at 8 am CDT:


(Source)


I picked up 1.47 inches since Monday.....Very humid outside this morning...
Soil moisture. Well, the maps at the mesonet look saturated all the way to 24" deep. This is...

...2" down


...24" down


As described by the OK mesonet: "The Daily Averaged Fractional Water Index at 2 inches map displays the 24-hour-averaged soil moisture at 2 inches (5 cm) under native sod for the previous day. Fractional water index ranges from 0 (completely dry) to 1.0 (completely saturated)".

Add: Same for 24" ;)
Quoting 247. sar2401:
Not a lot of people live in the area of heaviest rain. Most of it completely missed the Houston metro area. That's good...but it's bad. A lot of people in Houston feel that they got hyped out of a day of work. It's like the East Coast Blizzard this winter. We don't have the science to be able to make make accurate point forecast for rainfall so the NWS has to make warnings for a larger area. It's even worse when the rain is coming from an area like the Gulf with few reporting stations. Instead of being relieved that the guy who was coming right at you missed, a bunch of people are mad because they braced for the impact but he didn't hit them.


I live in Houston - Clear Lake area and I work downtown. Yesterday morning I looked at the radar, looked outside my window and went to work. It's OK to prepare and expect the worse, but ultimately you have to use common sense and assess your own situation.
Quoting 241. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


I never said it was not a problem people make those themselves
but its a solution to allow u to get on
till its fixed
People make problems themselves? A solution means that a problem is fixed. A workaround is something you do because it's not fixed. It hasn't been fixed in years. Having users continue to use a workaround for years is usually not an acceptable answer.
254. yoboi
Quoting 247. sar2401:

Not a lot of people live in the area of heaviest rain. Most of it completely missed the Houston metro area. That's good...but it's bad. A lot of people in Houston feel that they got hyped out of a day of work. It's like the East Coast Blizzard this winter. We don't have the science to be able to make make accurate point forecast for rainfall so the NWS has to make warnings for a larger area. It's even worse when the rain is coming from an area like the Gulf with few reporting stations. Instead of being relieved that the guy who was coming right at you missed, a bunch of people are mad because they braced for the impact but he didn't hit them.


The science is getting better for the 24-72 hr timeframe... Predictions beyond 72 hrs entertaining at times...
02L/EXTR/B/XX




looks like a system ya see in the winter

except its summer

and it has tropical Characteristics
Quoting 253. sar2401:

People make problems themselves? A solution means that a problem is fixed. A workaround is something you do because it's not fixed. It hasn't been fixed in years. Having users continue to use a workaround for years is usually not an acceptable answer.
it may very well never get fix code can and will always have troubles
you ok today sar

take it easy in the heat
Quoting 252. Greg01:



I live in Houston - Clear Lake area and I work downtown. Yesterday morning I looked at the radar, looked outside my window and went to work. It's OK to prepare and expect the worse, but ultimately you have to use common sense and assess your own situation.
Indeed, although that solution doesn't work if your place of business decided to close. I don't know what the answer is. Before Bill make landfall, it looked like Houston was right in the bullseye. The storm moved slightly west, along with the area of heaviest rainfall, but that was noon Tuesday. Given the lead time businesses and institutions need to make decisions about closing, it was very reasonable to decide Bill could be bad for Houston at about 5:00 Monday evening. It was equally reasonable to look out the window and look at the radar Tuesday morning and decide it wasn't going to be bad enough to stay home. Until the day comes we're able to say this county is going to get it and this county isn't, we're going to have these kinds of issues.
Quoting 257. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

you ok today sar

take it easy in the heat


I gotta tell you this heat makes me a little irritated too. It's like you open the door to your oven when you go outside. 99 in Apopka yesterday with a heat index of 106.
Quoting 250. yoboi:



I picked up 1.47 inches since Monday.....Very humid outside this morning...

Less than a half an inch here. I'm fine w/ less rain, as I've declared war on the mosquitoes. Why, you ask? Because the little b*****ds were winning.

Not a huge fan of chemicals, but they kept biting me at night, in the house, even while sleeping. I had to apply DEET in the house! Well, no more. I've gotten aggressive with them, from the yard to the house.

I feel like Bill Murray in Caddyshack with his war on gophers...just a little more sane :-)
the emrg alert sys on my tv just went off
this is a test of the Ontario emer alert system
this has only been a test

scared the crap outta me I have not seen that here in years
Quoting 254. yoboi:



The science is getting better for the 24-72 hr timeframe... Predictions beyond 72 hrs entertaining at times...
The point of my post is getting better at being able to say there will be three inches of rain at your house and only one inch of rain a mile away in the next eight hours. It had nothing to do with 24-72 hour timeframes.
Quoting 219. hydrus:

Quite common..When this happens over water, the tail can develop into a tropical storm.


Can you provide an example of this happening?
Quoting 255. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

02L/EXTR/B/XX




looks like a system ya see in the winter

except its summer

and it has tropical Characteristics


Looks better over TX than it did in the GOM
Quoting 261. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

the emrg alert sys on my tv just went off
this is a test of the Ontario emer alert system
this has only been a test

scared the crap outta me I have not seen that here in years
Happens every Wednesday around noon here. They only started it on cable TV about a year ago.
Quoting 258. sar2401:

Indeed, although that solution doesn't work if your place of business decided to close. I don't know what the answer is. Before Bill make landfall, it looked like Houston was right in the bullseye. The storm moved slightly west, along with the area of heaviest rainfall, but that was noon Tuesday. Given the lead time businesses and institutions need to make decisions about closing, it was very reasonable to decide Bill could be bad for Houston at about 5:00 Monday evening. It was equally reasonable to look out the window and look at the radar Tuesday morning and decide it wasn't going to be bad enough to stay home. Until the day comes we're able to say this county is going to get it and this county isn't, we're going to have these kinds of issues.


That's the nice thing about working on a Military base. If the base gets closed down for a weather related event we don't have to go into work and will be paid our normal 8 hour salary. Last year we had 4 days off for weather related events. 2 for the ice storm in late January and 2 for the flooding in late April.
268. yoboi
Quoting 260. LAbonbon:


Less than a half an inch here. I'm fine w/ less rain, as I've declared war on the mosquitoes. Why, you ask? Because the little b*****ds were winning.

Not a huge fan of chemicals, but they kept biting me at night, in the house, even while sleeping. I had to apply DEET in the house! Well, no more. I've gotten aggressive with them, from the yard to the house.

I feel like Bill Murray in Caddyshack with his war on gophers...just a little more sane :-)


When you get time search about plants that deter mosquitoes... I have a friend of mine that planted all kind of things and they don't have a mosquito problem now..
On the "hyping": A lot of people just look for reasons to be upset; and a lot of other people just look for reasons to criticize others. So, IMHO, the pros just have to accept, "haters gonna hate." It's a little upsetting to me to see hypocrisy - "hypers gonna hype" and then accuse others of "hype" after impacts aren't immediately as dramatic as they could possibly have been - but we really can't do anything about that, either. But this morning writing Bill off (even referencing the storm as a "bum") - when it's still raining buckets in parts of Texas, and several places remain under flood warnings or watches - is a poor and ill-informed premature assessment of an ongoing event and infers a Narcissistic need for validation.
Quoting 80. yonzabam:

NASA global temperature for May is the joint second highest on record, at 0.71 C above the 1951-80 average.

The first five months of the year have been the warmest Jan-May on record, at 0.77C. This beats the first five months of 2014 by a whopping 0.1 C ( 0.67 C). Remember, 2014 (full year) was the warmest on record. So, in order for 2015 not to be the warmest year on record, the last seven months would have to average about 0.09C lower than the same period in 2014.

Given the ongoing El Nino, and the likelihood of it persisting through the winter, and probably intensifying, this is very unlikely. 2015 is set to be the warmest year on record, and probably by some margin. In technical jargon, it looks like it'll be a 'doozie'.

Link


Good morning all from Austin. Thankfully the COC remained far enough east of the Austin metro area as it rolled through around midnight- 1 a.m. The winds were in the mid 20 MPH range with some occasional gusts to the low to mid 30 MPH rage. Most rain gauges in Travis and Williamson counties recorded around 1-2 inches cumulatively for June 16-17. Only some minor localized flooding around Brushy Creek in the Round Rock area but all in all the Austin metro area was spared any significant flooding. That is all I have to report for this area.
272. etxwx
Quoting 260. LAbonbon:


Less than a half an inch here. I'm fine w/ less rain, as I've declared war on the mosquitoes. Why, you ask? Because the little b*****ds were winning.

Not a huge fan of chemicals, but they kept biting me at night, in the house, even while sleeping. I had to apply DEET in the house! Well, no more. I've gotten aggressive with them, from the yard to the house.

I feel like Bill Murray in Caddyshack with his war on gophers...just a little more sane :-)

LAbonbon, we've put up 4 bat houses, and I think they've made a difference in the mosquito problem here. I was thinking the little bloodsuckers would rebound this year since it's so much wetter, but they are not near as bad as they used to be before we encouraged the local bat population. If you have a suitable location, you may want to look into that. Anything to reduce the number of mosquitoes - the plaguey little beasts!
Quoting 268. yoboi:



When you get time search about plants that deter mosquitoes... I have a friend of mine that planted all kind of things and they don't have a mosquito problem now..

Will do!!
Quoting 266. sar2401:

Happens every Wednesday around noon here. They only started it on cable TV about a year ago.
I am on bell sats services no cable
Caribbean hot and dry and hazy again......
lets hope it doesnt last long.
Quoting 266. sar2401:

Happens every Wednesday around noon here. They only started it on cable TV about a year ago.


I never seen it on satellite services before and the message says in effect till 1130 began at 1058 32 min test never seen that before
277. yoboi
Quoting 260. LAbonbon:


Less than a half an inch here. I'm fine w/ less rain, as I've declared war on the mosquitoes. Why, you ask? Because the little b*****ds were winning.

Not a huge fan of chemicals, but they kept biting me at night, in the house, even while sleeping. I had to apply DEET in the house! Well, no more. I've gotten aggressive with them, from the yard to the house.

I feel like Bill Murray in Caddyshack with his war on gophers...just a little more sane :-)


If you are having mosquito problem in your house just go buy a bug light/zapper plug it in and let the zapping begin...It can double as a conversation piece....
NHC stopped issuing advisories on Bill so we on here get to "pretend" and issue ours. So, is Bill going extra-tropical yet ?.......................... :)

must be something new interesting
referring to comment 276
Quoting 263. tazmyn2000:



Can you provide an example of this happening?
Hurricane Ivan is one example. I wish I had a better picture but Ivan was so huge you couldn't get the whole storm on one radar image. The storm made landfall about two in the morning so the satellite photos aren't too good either. Nevertheless, this is about two hours after landfall, as Ivan, a cat 3 at the time, moved NE through the Florida Panhandle, just entering Alabama. You can see the tail forming on the right side of the picture. This tail continued out into the Gulf, and the energy that was tapped allowed Ivan to continue 100 miles inland over Alabama as a cat 1 hurricane, and a tropical storm until about 150 miles inland. It was a tropical depression 300 miles inland while still generating TS force gusts. The trajectory of Gulf storms often allow them to maintain a tap into the Gulf much longer than we'd see for a typical Atlantic tropical cyclone.

scattered.showers.windwards
Quoting 263. tazmyn2000:



Can you provide an example of this happening?
Yes...If I can get the time...I am taking care of an infirm doggie.
284. etxwx
The effects of Bill's training tail storms are starting to add up here in Deep East Texas:
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
920 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SHREVEPORT HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
NACOGDOCHES COUNTY IN EASTERN TEXAS...
SOUTHEASTERN CHEROKEE COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN TEXAS...
ANGELINA COUNTY IN EASTERN TEXAS...

* UNTIL 115 PM CDT

* AT 919 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING
HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. FLASH FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN SHORTLY. EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE THROUGH LUNCHTIME
DUE TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION BILL.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
LUFKIN...NACOGDOCHES...DIBOLL...HUDSON...HUNTINGTO N...TRAWICK...
WODEN...ETOILE...DOUGLASS...MELROSE...BURKE...ZAVA LLA...CUSHING...
APPLEBY...OAK RIDGE...CENTRAL...HOMER...LOONEYVILLE...CLAWSON AND
SHAWNEE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND NOW. ACT QUICKLY TO PROTECT YOUR LIFE.


Edited to add this:
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1036 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2015
TYLER-HARDIN-JEFFERSON-ORANGE-NORTHERN JASPER-NORTHERN NEWTON-
SOUTHERN JASPER-SOUTHERN NEWTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WOODVILLE...COLMESNEIL...LUMBERTON...
SILSBEE...BEAUMONT...PORT ARTHUR...ORANGE...VIDOR...BRIDGE CITY...
JASPER...KIRBYVILLE...NEWTON...BUNA...DEWEYVILLE
1036 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2015

...RAIN BANDS ASSOCIATED WITH BILL SPREADING NORTH ACROSS EAST
TEXAS...

RAINBANDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE CIRCULATION OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
BILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS EAST TEXAS THIS MORNING.
IN ADDITION TO PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...SOUTH WINDS
GUSTING UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

Someone mentioned the possibility of the tail of a storm developing into another storm. What kinds of indications should one look for in the persistent mess on the southern Texas coastline to know if it may develop? So far, in the League City/Friendswood area, we're fine from the effects of Bill, but an additional storm could change that in a hurry.

During Allison, I had just moved here and didn't know much about prep or what it would take to flood our location (we didn't). Evacuated for Rita (mistake). Evacuated for Ike (prudent). I'm currently working on getting prepped for this season, but would like more of a warning than our local mets have time for if something's brewing from Bill's tail- that's why I pay attention so closely to what you all say. Most of you anyway... :)
Quoting 279. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

must be something new interesting
referring to comment 276
I don't know what the situation is with Industry Canada but the FCC mandated all commercial telecommunication carriers carry emergency broadcast system messages as of January, 2015. For the first time, that included satellite providers. Cable system had to do this in 2013 but it took a couple of years for satellite providers to figure out a way to know exactly where each receiver was and how that related to the EBS. I imagine it's similar up there but, no matter what commercial system someone is watching here, they'll get the messages. They are still trying to figure out a way to make this work with internet radio. The technology is always out in front of the regulators.
If you use wunderground for any length of time, even with a no-ads membership, it is best to clear yer cache and disable cookies.

Or you get those log in prompts.

It took 2 years to get them to fix the radars, so it be best to do as advised.
I live in Pearland and work in Alvin TxMama. All we have left is some rain for the most part. We should start drying up tomorrow.


Quoting 285. TxMama:

Someone mentioned the possibility of the tail of a storm developing into another storm. What kinds of indications should one look for in the persistent mess on the southern Texas coastline to know if it may develop? So far, in the League City/Friendswood area, we're fine from the effects of Bill, but an additional storm could change that in a hurry.

During Allison, I had just moved here and didn't know much about prep or what it would take to flood our location (we didn't). Evacuated for Rita (mistake). Evacuated for Ike (prudent). I'm currently working on getting prepped for this season, but would like more of a warning than our local mets have time for if something's brewing from Bill's tail- that's why I pay attention so closely to what you all say. Most of you anyway... :)

Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion


000
AXNT20 KNHC 171047
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED JUN 17 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION BILL IS CENTERED NEAR 31.0N 97.1W AT 17/0900
UTC OR ABOUT 40 NM S OF WACO TEXAS MOVING N AT 11 KT. ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND
SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 27N-29N BETWEEN 94W-98W. SEE LATEST NHC
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT2/
WTNT32 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT EXISTS BETWEEN A 1020 MB HIGH
CENTERED NE OF THE BAHAMAS NEAR 28N74W AND LOWER PRESSURE
FOCUSED ON A 1006 MB LOW CENTERED ACROSS NORTHERN COLOMBIA NEAR
10N76W THAT IS RESULTING IN NEAR GALE FORCE E-NE WINDS THIS
MORNING WITHIN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. THIS
WIND FIELD IS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO GALE FORCE WITHIN 24 HOURS
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY. SEE LATEST NWS
HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 09N25W TO 15N22W MOVING W AT 15 KT.
THE WAVE HAS EMERGED OFF THE AFRICAN COAST AND COINCIDES WITH
700 MB TROUGHING BETWEEN 21W-27W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION
IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE AT THIS TIME.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 04N45W TO 11N44W MOVING W AT 20-25
KT. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE EMBEDDED
WITHIN A RELATIVELY LOW AMPLITUDE AREA OF MOISTURE S OF 09N
BETWEEN 43W-50W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE WAVE AT THIS TIME.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 04N63W TO 15N60W MOVING W AT 20 KT.
THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH WEAK 700 MB TROUGHING BETWEEN 58W-64W ON
THE WESTERN EXTENT OF A LENGTHY EASTERLY JET STRETCHING FROM
13N27W TO 10N62W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS MOSTLY INLAND
ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN VENEZUELA AND NORTHERN GUYANA.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 08N75N TO 17N73W MOVING W AT 20 KT.
THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE EMBEDDED
WITHIN A POLEWARD SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH
THE WAVE AT THIS TIME.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 17N16W TO
11N21W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
11N21W TO 04N45W TO 02N51W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 27W-41W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE GULF IS INFLUENCED BY TWO UPPER LEVEL FEATURES...ONE AN
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN GULF NEAR
21N94W AND THE OTHER AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE
EASTERN GULF NEAR 23N87W. THE ANTICYCLONE IS LARGELY INVOLVED
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION BILL AS IT
MOVES FARTHER INLAND ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS THIS MORNING. UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ALONG WITH CONVERGENT LOW-LEVEL WINDS ACROSS
THE NW GULF IS GENERATING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED TSTMS N OF 26N W OF 95W. OTHERWISE...MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL CLOUDINESS CONTINUES TO COVER MUCH OF THE BASIN W OF 90W
WITH FRESH TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG E-SE BREEZE CONDITIONS
PREVAILING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ELSEWHERE...SURFACE RIDGING
CONTINUES TO HOLD ACROSS THE NE GULF ANCHORED BY A 1020 MB HIGH
CENTERED NEAR 28N85W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE SE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS
INFLUENCE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN TO 15N W OF 80W. WEAK LOW-LEVEL
SPEED CONVERGENCE ALONG WITH MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS
GENERATING A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN THIS
MORNING STRETCHING FROM THE GULF OF HONDURAS TO JAMAICA. THE
REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF GENERALLY
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT A PART OF WHICH...BETWEEN 70W-80W...IS
MOSTLY DRY AND STABLE UPON EXAMINING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. E OF
70W...MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG WITH THE PRESENCE OF
A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 74W IS PROVIDING FOCUS FOR POSSIBLE WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 13N-19N BETWEEN 61W-71W. DUE TO HIGH
PRESSURE ANCHORING ITSELF ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC REGION...
TRADES ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN AT STRONG LEVELS WITH NEAR GALE
FORCE...30 KT...FORECAST WITHIN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA. THIS AREA IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN FURTHER WITHIN 24
HOURS PRODUCING NEAR GALE TO GALE FORCE CONDITIONS WITHIN CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY...SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THIS MORNING WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY WITHIN THE SOUTHEASTERN
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS AND MONA PASSAGE REGION. THIS MOISTURE
IS LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE PASSING TO THE SOUTH
OF THE ISLAND AND ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS ALONG 61W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1020 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OFFSHORE OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
NEAR 28N74W. FAIR SKIES ARE NOTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE SW NORTH
ATLC THIS MORNING. THE ONLY FEATURE ALONG THE DISCUSSION
BOUNDARY IS A STATIONARY FRONT ANALYZED FROM 31N43W INTO A 1019
MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 33N53W TO 31N60W TO NE OF BERMUDA NEAR
34N63W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING N OF 27N
BETWEEN 55W-72W...AND WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. OTHERWISE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING
DOMINATES ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC WATERS
WITH OVERALL FAIR CONDITIONS PREVAILING.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN
Well, this is rare; Going to Central Illinois.
Quoting 277. yoboi:



If you are having mosquito problem in your house just go buy a bug light/zapper plug it in and let the zapping begin...It can double as a conversation piece....
skeeters hate Rosemary and Sage
Depression BILL RSS Feed icon Storm Archive

The NHC has issued its final advisory on this system. Public Advisories from the Weather Prediction Center will provide updates as long as the system remains a flood threat.

294. yoboi
Quoting 292. LargoFl:

skeeters hate Rosemary and Sage


Here is a list of additional plants...

Link
This gauge is in Lavaca County, TX:

WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV Turn-Off Notice

The Hydrometeorological Prediction Center address

www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov

will be turned off on


July 1, 2015

If you have arrived at this page using a bookmark or a page link, you can access the new page by substituting the "hpc" in "www.hpc.ncep..." on the address bar with "wpc". Please update your bookmarks or links accordingly.
Please note that all of the content that was at "www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov" is available through the Weather Prediction Center page at




http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/
Quoting 281. sar2401:

Hurricane Ivan is one example. I wish I had a better picture but Ivan was so huge you couldn't get the whole storm on one radar image. The storm made landfall about two in the morning so the satellite photos aren't too good either. Nevertheless, this is about two hours after landfall, as Ivan, a cat 3 at the time, moved NE through the Florida Panhandle, just entering Alabama. You can see the tail forming on the right side of the picture. This tail continued out into the Gulf, and the energy that was tapped allowed Ivan to continue 100 miles inland over Alabama as a cat 1 hurricane, and a tropical storm until about 150 miles inland. It was a tropical depression 300 miles inland while still generating TS force gusts. The trajectory of Gulf storms often allow them to maintain a tap into the Gulf much longer than we'd see for a typical Atlantic tropical cyclone.




Ivan sucked, that was one slow moving monster, it howled all night long in Fort Walton Beach!
298. etxwx
Quoting 294. yoboi:



Here is a list of additional plants...

Link

That's a helpful link about mosquito repellent plants, yoboi. Thanks!
Skeeter's hate Led Zeppelin, so you know my night time remedy now.

: P
300. beell
Quoting 179. weathermanwannabe:



Yeah; the overall structure for Bill has looked better after landfall than it did for most of it's period in the Gulf. Same issue with Wilma I believe several years ago when it crossed the flat warm Everglades from the Naples area across to Fort Lauderdale on the East coast of Florida. Not a brown ocean effect per se (over a swamp) but the eyewall did not degrade after landfall.


Consensus forecast for Bill was attaining TC status as it approached or made landfall. There are numerous archived sat loops that depict inland storms with decent structure. A contributory effect from brown ocean cannot be discounted but neither can the normal transition of a slowly weakening TC as it moves inland within a friendly environment.

I suppose if the winds begin to pick up and the pressure falls, brown ocean would have to be suspect number one.

Call me "old and crotchety"!
:)
Quoting 285. TxMama:

Someone mentioned the possibility of the tail of a storm developing into another storm. What kinds of indications should one look for in the persistent mess on the southern Texas coastline to know if it may develop? So far, in the League City/Friendswood area, we're fine from the effects of Bill, but an additional storm could change that in a hurry.

During Allison, I had just moved here and didn't know much about prep or what it would take to flood our location (we didn't). Evacuated for Rita (mistake). Evacuated for Ike (prudent). I'm currently working on getting prepped for this season, but would like more of a warning than our local mets have time for if something's brewing from Bill's tail- that's why I pay attention so closely to what you all say. Most of you anyway... :)
No, another storm isn't going to develop from the tail. The tail is just prolonging the effects of Bill. It's will really be more of an issue for the Panhandle and southern OK today than the coast, but you'll get some more rain and thunderstorms from the remnants. As Bill pushes north and the high pushes west, this will all be ending by tomorrow. You've seen the worst of it already.
About the possibility of the tail of a storm developing into another storm. My understanding is for us (I live close to the coast - So East USA) there are 3 ways we will see a tropical storm develop
#1 Tropical Wave from West Africa
#2 Home grown - all ingedients (water temp, moist air etc) present
#3 When a low moving across the south (west to east) gets stretched out and the southern portions pull off and develops a storm. (TS/TD would be the originating storm moving across the land and then the tail breaking off)

#2 and #3 most apt early and late season
#1 most apt mid season

Not sure if this is just conventional wisdom - perhaps someone will confirm or clarify
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Anyone else reading the some of the flash flood warnings?

"RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM PREVIOUS HEAVY RAINS RANGED FROM 3 TO
15 INCHES ACROSS THE WARNED AREA AND AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES
WILL BE POSSIBLE"


FLASH FLOOD WARNING
TXC089-239-481-171715-
/O.NEW.KHGX.FF.W.0097.150617T1520Z-150617T1715Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1020 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
COLORADO COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
WHARTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
NORTHERN JACKSON COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...

* UNTIL 1215 PM CDT

* AT 1017 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LARGE AREA OF RAIN WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE WARNED
AREA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM PREVIOUS HEAVY RAINS RANGED FROM 3 TO
15 INCHES ACROSS THE WARNED AREA AND AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES
WILL BE POSSIBLE
. FLASH FLOODING IS ON GOING AND WILL CONTINUE.
NUMEROUS REPORTS OF HIGH WATER ON ROADS WITH SOME IMPASSABLE
MAINLY IN THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF WHARTON COUNTY.


* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
EL CAMPO...WHARTON...COLUMBUS...EAGLE LAKE...WEIMAR...PIERCE...
BOLING-IAGO...ALTAIR...HUNGERFORD...CORDELE...EGYP T...MORALES...
SHERIDAN...ROCK ISLAND...LOUISE...GARWOOD AND NADA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED ROADS. MOST FLOOD
DEATHS OCCUR IN VEHICLES.
Quoting 302. SC29483:

About the possibility of the tail of a storm developing into another storm. My understanding is for us (I live close to the coast - So East USA) there are 3 ways we will see a tropical storm develop
#1 Tropical Wave from West Africa
#2 Home grown - all ingedients (water temp, moist air etc) present
#3 When a low moving across the south (west to east) gets stretched out and the southern portions pull off and develops a storm. (TS/TD would be the originating storm moving across the land and then the tail breaking off)

#2 and #3 most apt early and late season
#1 most apt mid season

Not sure if this is just conventional wisdom - perhaps someone will confirm or clarify
Yep...Sometimes there is a pouch associated with the parent storm so to speak. The pouch usually lags a good distance to the S.E. Once the storm moves away or dissipates, another storm forms.
Almost 2pm EST in Florida and hardly a blip on the radar anywhere in the state, Sea Breeze thunderstorms are even rare today, talk about drying out and unusual for Florida in the summertime!