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Bill is gone; Invest 92 pops up

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:08 PM GMT on August 24, 2009

Hurricane Bill is no more. The hurricane swept past Canada's Nova Scotia province Sunday afternoon, then made landfall early this morning in southeastern Newfoundland as a borderline tropical storm/Category 1 hurricane. Bill's waves claimed two lives over the weekend, a 54-year old swimmer that drowned in Florida, and a 7-year old girl in Maine that got swept into the sea by a big wave. The first death of the 2009 Atlantic hurricane season occurred on August 16, when a swimmer drowned in the rough surf from Tropical Storm Claudette at Pananma City Beach, FL.

Nova Scotia misses a direct hit
The center of Bill scooted parallel to the coast of Nova Scotia Sunday afternoon, and never quite came onshore. Since the storm's forward speed was so rapid--about 35 mph--this resulted in a highly asymmetric wind distribution. Since the top winds of a hurricane include the forward motion of the storm, Bill's top winds of 85 mph observed in the offshore, right front quadrant of the storm meant that the winds on the weak side of the storm, over Nova Scotia, were 85 mph minus 35 mph, or just 50 mph. Winds along most of the coast stayed below 39 mph, the borderline for tropical storm-force winds. The strongest winds measured in Canada were at Sable Island, which lies 150 miles offshore of Nova Scotia. Winds on the island hit 61 mph, gusting to 77 mph, between 4 - 5 pm ADT Sunday afternoon. A few islands along the Nova Scotia coast, such as Beaver Island and Hart Island, reported sustained winds of 39 - 40 mph. The big story for Nova Scotia was the waves from Bill. Buoy 44258 at the mouth of Halifax Harbor recorded significant wave heights of 29.5 feet and maximum wave heights of 49 feet as Bill passed 50 miles offshore. The buoy recorded top sustained winds of 35 mph, gusting to 51 mph. The waves combined with a 1.5 - 3 foot storm surge flooded many coastal roads. Buoy 44150, about 160 miles offshore of of the southwest tip of Nova Scotia, was in the east eyewall of Bill between 10 - 11 am ADT, and reported sustained winds of 62 mph, gusting to 85 mph, with significant wave heights of 44 feet. The buoy recorded a maximum wave height of 87 feet, according to Environment Canada. The highest official rain report on Nova Scotia was 2.6" (65 mm) at Yarmouth. Rainfall cause some localized flooding and road damage. Bill's winds cut power to about 40,000 people at the height of the storm. At Peggys Cove, three men were hit by a giant wave but were not hurt. A gift shop and attached home in the village were swept off of their foundation.

Newfoundland gets hit, but damage is minor
The southeast corner of Newfoundland took a direct hit from Bill. The storm made landfall early this morning as a borderline tropical storm/Category 1 hurricane. Top winds on the island were measured at Cape Race, which recorded sustained winds of 58 mph, gusting to 76 mph, between 1:30 and 2:30 am NDT. A storm surge of 1.2 meters (4 feet) was estimated by Environment Canada for Placentia Bay where Bill made landfall. Damage was minor on Newfoundland, with no major flooding reported. Bill dumped up to three inches of rain on Newfoundland.


Figure 1. The eye of Hurricane Bill on August 19 at 2157 UTC, from a NOAA P-3 Hurricane Hunter aircraft flying at 10,000 feet. Photo credit: Jack Parrish of NOAA's Aircraft Operations Center.

Kelvin-Helmholtz instability waves in the eye of Bill
Flight Director Jack Parrish of NOAA's Aircraft Operations Center snapped a cool photo in the eye of Hurricane Bill on Friday, showing the existence of a Kelvin-Helmholtz instability wave (Figure 1). The photo was taken on August 19 at 2157 UTC, from a NOAA P-3 Hurricane Hunter aircraft flying at 10,000 feet. The photo is taken looking WNW towards the eyewall. The towering clouds of the eyewall extend up to 50,000 - 55,000 feet in the photo, and the ocean surface is not visible, due to stratocumulus clouds covering the bottom of the eye. The center of the photo shows that the top of one of these stratocumulus clouds has a feature that looks like a breaking wave in the ocean. Well, that is an example of a breaking wave in the atmosphere known as a Kelvin-Helmholtz instability wave. The atmosphere behaves as a fluid, and thus has wave-like motions. When there is a sudden change of wind speed along the top of a cloud (wind shear), the flow can become unstable and cause breaking waves to form. One can see Kelvin-Helmholtz in the sky several times per year, and several alert wunderphotographers have uploaded photos of these waves over the years. However, it is uncommon to see these waves in the stratocumulus clouds covering the eye of a hurricane.


Figure 2. Water vapor satellite image for 8:15 am EDT 8/24/09. A tropical wave is approaching the Northern Lesser Antilles Islands, but is running into high wind shear from an upper-level cold low to the west of it. Image credit: NOAA/SSD.

Tropical wave approaching Lesser Antilles becomes Invest 92
A tropical wave with a moderate amount of shower activity is moving west-northwest at 20 - 25 mph and is approaching the northern Lesser Antilles Islands. This wave was designated "Invest 92" (92L) by NHC this morning. The wave is under about 20 - 30 knots of wind shear due the strong upper-level winds from the west. These winds are being created by the counter-clockwise flow of air around an upper-level cold-cored low north of Puerto Rico (Figure 2). This low is expected to move west-southwest and slowly weaken over the next two days, allowing shear to drop to the moderate 10 - 20 knot range beginning Tuesday night, according to the SHIPS model. By Wednesday, the upper low is predicted to be weak enough and far enough away from 92L that it will have a chance to develop. Most of the models show some degree of development of 92L by Thursday, when it is expected to be a few hundred miles off the coast of South Carolina. This wave could turn northward and give a wet weekend to New England, though it is too early to be confident of this. NHC is giving 92L a low (less than 30% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday morning. The upper-level low will create plenty of wind shear and dump cold, dry air into 92L over the next two days, so Wednesday is probably the earliest we can expect the system to begin organizing into a tropical depression.

Several models predict the development of a tropical wave coming off the coast of Africa late this week.

I'll have an update Tuesday.

Jeff Masters
Beach Wall wave 1
Beach Wall wave 1
Waves from Hurricane Bill crashing on the sea wall during high tide in Lynn, MA
Hurricane Bill Waves Day 2 # 9
Hurricane Bill Waves Day 2 # 9
Kelvin-Helmholtz Instabilities
Kelvin-Helmholtz Instabilities
Kelvin-Helmholtz Instabilities to the S of Boston. Wavy like pattern in clouds is caused by a difference in winds between the cloud layer and the layer just above (called wind shear). The manifestation of this at the top of the altostratus deck is quite a beautiful and rare sight!

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

storm furys wave at 35w will eventually probally develop too.
1502. WxLogic
Morning.. 456..
Good Morning all. Need Coffee! No go shuttle?
morning
the tropical wave at 35W has lost most of it's convection due to very dry air in the vicinity. meanwhile very robust tropical wave is about to exit the african coast. it is carrying 1009mb low with it . most of the global models are hinting of some form of development in the CATL the next few days. the wave at35W is a fairly large one ,with an elongated area of low pressure
1505. Greyelf
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:


right overland U.K. in the coming hours


Always funny seeing named highs and lows. Those silly Europeans.
It looks like 92L should become a depression soon, having seemingly overcome the shear, which should relax. It looks to follow a path similar to Bill but maybe a little further west. Still too early to say exactly how far west it will move before swinging towards the north and northeast.

93L is doing what a late August low-latitude disturbance in the SW Caribbean should do...move almost due west, cross central America and move into the Pacific, where it should develop further. If it was October or November, that system would have swung more towards the north.

That low-level circulation near 14N and 34W is interesting...very broad but very little convection, mostly a swirl of low clouds. If convection doesn't develop over the next day or so, it'll probably spin down slowly, but it's certainly worth watching for now, as is the wave coming off Africa.
Quoting Greyelf:


Always funny seeing named highs and lows. Those silly Europeans.


Do they retire any highs or lows? :P
tpc has tagged a low to the 35w http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atlsfc24_latestBW_sm3.gif
it looks like the area at 35w is becoming a bit more interesting. let's see if it can build more convection
Mysterious Tubular Clouds Defy Explanation

http://www.wired.com/wiredscience/2009/08/morninggloryclouds/
1511. IKE
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED ABOUT 300
MILES NORTHEAST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO IS ASSOCIATED WITH A
TROPICAL WAVE INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW. EARLY MORNING
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT THE WAVE HAS BECOME A LITTLE
BETTER ORGANIZED. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND 20 MPH. THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE...GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
INTERESTS IN THE BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE COAST AT THE
BORDER BETWEEN COSTA RICA AND NICARAGUA. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM IS NOT ANTICIPATED BEFORE IT MOVES INLAND OVER CENTRAL
AMERICA TODAY. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF
THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE OVER NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS
THIS SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN
I have a question for everyone, How do they decide the number for Invests? Just a few weeks ago they were naming invests 2 and 3 now the invests are 92 and 93. I have only been learning just over a year now and I remember last year they were numbering invests at 93 94. Can anyone tell me how they get numbered?
and then POOF!
1514. WxLogic
Indeed... they're drawing the Red circle as we speak.
good morning we have 92L I knew that 93L would form and look like we will soon have 94L from that east atlantic wave/low and just maybe 95L from that african wave/low

Link

Link

Link
Quoting TightLines305:
Mysterious Tubular Clouds Defy Explanation

http://www.wired.com/wiredscience/2009/08/morninggloryclouds/


KEWL !!!!
1517. IKE
If 92L is about 300 miles NE of San Juan and it's moving WNW, it should pass north of the Bahamas.
1518. WxLogic
Quoting zebralove:
I have a question for everyone, How do they decide the number for Invests? Just a few weeks ago they were naming invests 2 and 3 now the invests are 92 and 93. I have only been learning just over a year now and I remember last year they were numbering invests at 93 94. Can anyone tell me how they get numbered?


They move sequentially... 1, 2, 3, etc... then once they get to 9... then they start over with 0, 1, 2, etc...
Here's some pretty good pictures of the lightning that scrubbed this morning's launch.
Quoting zebralove:
I have a question for everyone, How do they decide the number for Invests? Just a few weeks ago they were naming invests 2 and 3 now the invests are 92 and 93. I have only been learning just over a year now and I remember last year they were numbering invests at 93 94. Can anyone tell me how they get numbered?
Confused the heck out me as well. I thought they started with 90 and went through to 99 before coming back to 90.

Oh... and good morning folks

British Isles, Ireland - How goes it??
67/22 is about where the center could be, the convection has blown off to the NW?
the area in the catl near with a low pressure near 14n 35w is far from organising into something tropical in the near future. there is no convergence or divergence and convection with this system. what it has going for it is a strong 850mb vorticity, low vertical shear and an anticyclone just to the west. development will be slow to occur
Quoting stoormfury:
the area in the catl near with a low pressure near 14n 35w is far from organising into something tropical in the near future. there is no convergence or divergence and convection with this system. what it has going for it is a strong 850mb vorticity, low vertical shear and an anticyclone just to the west. development will be slow to occur
once it moves over warmer water it will develop time of yr any cloud or disturbance with room may develop
Good News for us in S.FL.

looks like south Florida dodged another one.

1526. FLBlake
Quoting TightLines305:
Mysterious Tubular Clouds Defy Explanation

http://www.wired.com/wiredscience/2009/08/morninggloryclouds/



Roll Form Cloud
Link
thank you for the answers I had thought they started at one and went through all the numbers in the 20s 30s etc and was confused how they went through 90 some invests in just a few weeks without me noticing.....DOH!!!
yea pretty much guaranteed to swing north.
morning all
1531. WxLogic
Current steering supports a WNW for the time being:

Quoting WxLogic:
Current steering supports a WNW for the time being:


and that is for what 92L,93L or possible 94L
1533. IKE
6Z GFDL on 92L...


6Z HWRF on 92L...


System appears to be forming further north than where it was centered last night. Looks like another Bill track to me.
T.C.F.A 92L
157

WHXX01 KWBC 250809

CHGHUR

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

0809 UTC TUE AUG 25 2009



DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.



ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR



DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL922009) 20090825 0600 UTC



...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...

090825 0600 090825 1800 090826 0600 090826 1800



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 18.9N 61.5W 21.3N 64.8W 23.7N 67.3W 26.0N 69.5W

BAMD 18.9N 61.5W 21.0N 63.6W 23.1N 65.3W 24.9N 67.0W

BAMM 18.9N 61.5W 20.8N 64.2W 22.5N 66.2W 24.2N 68.1W

LBAR 18.9N 61.5W 20.7N 63.9W 22.4N 66.2W 23.9N 68.0W

SHIP 25KTS 30KTS 36KTS 46KTS

DSHP 25KTS 30KTS 36KTS 46KTS



...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...

090827 0600 090828 0600 090829 0600 090830 0600



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 28.1N 71.1W 31.4N 72.6W 34.0N 72.4W 37.3N 67.8W

BAMD 26.4N 68.4W 28.8N 69.9W 31.8N 69.8W 36.8N 65.5W

BAMM 25.7N 69.6W 28.1N 71.3W 30.8N 71.1W 34.9N 67.1W

LBAR 25.3N 69.3W 27.1N 70.6W 28.9N 71.5W 30.8N 72.2W

SHIP 52KTS 65KTS 73KTS 81KTS

DSHP 52KTS 65KTS 73KTS 81KTS



...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 18.9N LONCUR = 61.5W DIRCUR = 295DEG SPDCUR = 19KT

LATM12 = 17.1N LONM12 = 58.0W DIRM12 = 294DEG SPDM12 = 21KT

LATM24 = 15.9N LONM24 = 54.0W

WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 50NM WNDM12 = 20KT

CENPRS = 1012MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = M

RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



$$

NNNN
1537. WxLogic
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

and that is for what 92L,93L or possible 94L


This would be for all 3... you'll see the steering for 92L is WNW, for 93L is W and for the AOI (better not use 94L yet to avoid confusion... hehe) is W also to a little WSW at times.
Looks like father like son.
Looks like a labor day hurricane for the northeast
1540. Engine2
Quoting stoormfury:
Looks like a labor day hurricane for the northeast

Huh? Models please?
1541. IKE
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
157

WHXX01 KWBC 250809

CHGHUR

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

0809 UTC TUE AUG 25 2009



DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.



ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR



DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL922009) 20090825 0600 UTC



...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...

090825 0600 090825 1800 090826 0600 090826 1800



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 18.9N 61.5W 21.3N 64.8W 23.7N 67.3W 26.0N 69.5W

BAMD 18.9N 61.5W 21.0N 63.6W 23.1N 65.3W 24.9N 67.0W

BAMM 18.9N 61.5W 20.8N 64.2W 22.5N 66.2W 24.2N 68.1W

LBAR 18.9N 61.5W 20.7N 63.9W 22.4N 66.2W 23.9N 68.0W

SHIP 25KTS 30KTS 36KTS 46KTS

DSHP 25KTS 30KTS 36KTS 46KTS



...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...

090827 0600 090828 0600 090829 0600 090830 0600



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 28.1N 71.1W 31.4N 72.6W 34.0N 72.4W 37.3N 67.8W

BAMD 26.4N 68.4W 28.8N 69.9W 31.8N 69.8W 36.8N 65.5W

BAMM 25.7N 69.6W 28.1N 71.3W 30.8N 71.1W 34.9N 67.1W

LBAR 25.3N 69.3W 27.1N 70.6W 28.9N 71.5W 30.8N 72.2W

SHIP 52KTS 65KTS 73KTS 81KTS

DSHP 52KTS 65KTS 73KTS 81KTS



...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 18.9N LONCUR = 61.5W DIRCUR = 295DEG SPDCUR = 19KT

LATM12 = 17.1N LONM12 = 58.0W DIRM12 = 294DEG SPDM12 = 21KT

LATM24 = 15.9N LONM24 = 54.0W

WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 50NM WNDM12 = 20KT

CENPRS = 1012MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = M

RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



$$

NNNN


Can you send a memo to the BAM model suite? There's nothing at 18.9N and 61.5W. It's at least 100 miles north of there.

I see it near 21.0N and 61.6W.
Quoting stoormfury:
Looks like a labor day hurricane for the northeast


Labor Day is the weekend after this coming weekend.

1543. IKE
Quoting BobinTampa:


Labor Day is the weekend after this coming weekend.



Yeah...he's got the wrong weekend and besides, looks like 92L may stay offshore anyway.
Good morning everyone...

Extra coffee needed this morning as some nasty T-storms woke me up in Jupiter around 3:00. So much lightning it looked like daylight outside.
good morning ike those things will change a few times before its right
1546. IKE
Here's where the HWRF centers it at 6 hours into it's run....centered near 22 north....GFDL has it centered between 21-22 north on the start of it's run too..




sorry my mistake with the dates
Outlier experimental model from CIMSS. Performed so-so on past hurricanes, but have seen no data on developing systems. Just another view which is probably way off base.

CRAS45NA
1549. NEwxguy
Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boston, MA


Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KBOX 251149
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
749 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO OUR REGION TUE...BRINGING DRIER
WEATHER. HAZY...HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL MAKE A BRIEF RETURN ON
WEDNESDAY...THEN DRIER AND MUCH COOLER WEATHER WILL ARRIVE FOR LATE
THIS WEEK AS A HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. A LOW
PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST AND TRACK TOWARD
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY. ANY REMAINING LOW CLOUDS/FOG PATCHES ALONG THE
CAPE AND ISLANDS WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE. DEW POINTS
HAVE DROPPED INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS THE AREA WHICH HAS
ALLOWED THE LOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP SIMILARLY TO START OUT.

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S TODAY AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. COULD SEE SOME DIURNAL
CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON BUT THAT SHOULD BE THE EXTENT OF ANY SHOWER
ACTIVITY.-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE STARTS MOVING THROUGH QUEBEC TONIGHT. THIS LOW
PRESSURE WILL PULL A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT...WILL START TO SEE A RETURN TO DEW POINTS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 60S. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
THIS MORNINGS LOWS. COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE VALLEYS AND
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST.

WEDNESDAY...EXPECT A RETURN TO HEAT AND HUMIDITY FOR THE DAY WITH
HIGHS NEARING 90. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA IN THE
AFTERNOON. THERE IS A SLIM POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT. HOWEVER...DRY AIR AT THE MID-LEVELS WILL
LIKELY PRECLUDE ANY DEVELOPMENT. HAVE ISOLATED TO SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS IN FOR THE WESTERN ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MOST OF THE 25/00Z GUIDANCE DEVELOPS A MID LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST DURING THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK...THEN SHIFT IT EAST TOWARD
GREENLAND HEADING INTO THIS WEEKEND. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IF A
BLOCKING RIDGE DEVELOPS EAST OF GREENLAND AT THIS TIME. THIS WILL
HAVE MAJOR IMPLICATIONS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MID LEVEL TROUGH
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THIS WEEKEND.

MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
COAST FRIDAY MOVING NORTH AND REACHING SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS
WEEKEND. 25/00Z GGEM IS BY FAR THE MOST DEVELOPED SOLUTION...AND WAS
DISCOUNTED. THE OPERATIONAL 00Z GFS LOOKS REASONABLE FROM A TIMING
PERSPECTIVE...BUT ITS TRACK IS AN OUTLIER SOLUTION AMONGST THE
INDIVIDUAL MEMBERS OF THE 00Z GEFS. AS SUCH...LARGELY DISCOUNTED IT
AS WELL. GENERALLY MINOR CHANGES THIS PACKAGE...STAYING CLOSER TO THE
24/12Z ECMWF-LED CONSENSUS.
so far looks like another run up east coast
Quoting BeanTech:
Good morning everyone...

Extra coffee needed this morning as some nasty T-storms woke me up in Jupiter around 3:00. So much lightning it looked like daylight outside.


It was going down in Port Saint Lucie also.
1552. IKE
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
so far looks like another run up east coast


As long as this pattern of troughs in the east holds, the GOM is off-limits.

Long-term from New Orleans......

LONG TERM...
GFS...NAM AND ECMWF ALL SHOW SOME SORT OF TROPICAL ORIGIN CYCLONE
MOVING UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND SLINGING ANOTHER OUT OF SEASON
COLD FRONT INTO THE GULF STATES FOR THE LATTER PART OF THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SCENARIO SEEMS PLAUSIBLE GIVEN
THE UPPER LONG WAVE PATTERN. THIS SHOULD SPELL ANOTHER BOUT OF
COOLER AND DRIER DAYS TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
Went red, do we even have anything close to an LLC yet?
1554. Brallan
WOW, a red circle. That was surprising.


INV/92L/XX
MARK
19.8N/61.0W
25/1145 UTC 21.7N 63.3W T1.5/1.5 92L -- Atlantic
25/1145 UTC 10.9N 84.2W OVERLAND 93L -- Atlantic
Quoting Brallan:
WOW, a red circle. That was surprising.
red and a T.C.F.A. to boot
1560. IKE
Quoting Tazmanian:
25/1145 UTC 21.7N 63.3W T1.5/1.5 92L -- Atlantic
25/1145 UTC 10.9N 84.2W OVERLAND 93L -- Atlantic


Bingo....21.7N. Throw that BAM model suite in the gar-bage.
1561. amd
92L is still not organized at all. Highest low level vorticity just NNE of the PR coast, and right at 20 N.

Link

In fact most of the convection with 92L seems to be associated with the 500 mb vorticity.
Another squeeze play between the high pressure and the trough should take 92L away from the GOM and Florida.

92L looks a lot better today.


INV/92L/XX
MARK
21.7N/63.3W
Quoting IKE:


Bingo....21.7N. Throw that BAM model suite in the gar-bage.


Its not the model, that is where NHC initializes the system.
92L is a lot better today FL needs to watch this 92L all so looking forword too what the HH finds out there today
good morning
AL 92 2009082512 BEST 0 216N 630W 25 1011 DB
And on the other side of the world: Typhoon Vamco.

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS

CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.

SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)

VALID 25/1100Z TO 26/1100Z AUGUST 2009

TCPOD NUMBER.....09-088



I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS

1. SUSPECT AREA (NORTH OF PUERTO RICO)

FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 70

A. 25/2100Z

B. AFXXX 01AAA INVEST

C. 25/1900Z

D. 22.0N 67.0W

E. 25/2000Z TO 26/0001Z

F. SFC TO 10,000 FT



FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 71

A. 26/0600Z

B. AFXXX 0205A CYCLONE

C. 26/0400Z

D. 23.0N 71.0W

E. 26/0530Z TO 26/1000Z

F. SFC TO 10,000 FT



2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: BEGIN 6-HRLY FIXES

AT 26/1800Z IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.



II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS

1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.

JWP


That African wave coming off the coast right now is quite impressive.
1571. MahFL
Code red !!!!!! lol.
As long as this pattern of troughs in the east holds, the GOM is off-limits.




And thats a beau-ti-ful thang.....
Blog Update
Reflector site for those at work, which includes Weather456, daily update.


AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI
1574. IKE
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
As long as this pattern of troughs in the east holds, the GOM is off-limits.




And thats a beau-ti-ful thang.....


Yes it is.
my only concearn is the forecasted rex block that is to set up south of greenland by the weekend it will keep the poss storm from going that way so a due n or nw may be only choice for it to go
AL 92 200908251145 10 DVTS CI 2170N 6330W SAB MS VI 3 1515 /////
AL 92 200908251145 10 DVTS CI 2180N 6270W TAFB JS VI 5 1010 /////
Anyone got a quikscat on 92L?
This is for anyone who may not realize how unusual it is to have this strong a trough in August:


RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
545 PM CDT MON AUG 24 2009

...RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE TIED AT MOBILE...

...RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE SET AT PENSACOLA...

A RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE OF 60 DEGREES WAS SET AT MOBILE TODAY.
THIS TIES THE OLD RECORD OF 60 SET IN 1891.

A RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE OF 63 DEGREES WAS SET AT PENSACOLA TODAY.
THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 64 SET IN 1891.
298

WHXX01 KWBC 251302

CHGHUR

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

1302 UTC TUE AUG 25 2009



DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.



ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR



DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL922009) 20090825 1200 UTC



...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...

090825 1200 090826 0000 090826 1200 090827 0000



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 21.6N 63.0W 24.0N 66.5W 26.3N 69.5W 28.2N 71.6W

BAMD 21.6N 63.0W 23.8N 65.1W 25.7N 67.1W 27.4N 68.9W

BAMM 21.6N 63.0W 23.5N 65.7W 25.2N 68.0W 26.8N 69.9W

LBAR 21.6N 63.0W 23.9N 65.3W 25.9N 67.2W 27.4N 68.3W

SHIP 25KTS 32KTS 40KTS 49KTS

DSHP 25KTS 32KTS 40KTS 49KTS



...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...

090827 1200 090828 1200 090829 1200 090830 1200



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 29.8N 72.8W 31.7N 72.7W 33.0N 70.6W 35.9N 66.5W

BAMD 29.0N 69.9W 32.1N 69.6W 35.7N 67.2W 41.6N 63.1W

BAMM 28.2N 71.1W 30.5N 71.3W 33.0N 69.7W 37.1N 66.3W

LBAR 28.8N 68.8W 31.3N 67.7W 33.6N 66.9W 36.2N 66.6W

SHIP 56KTS 71KTS 77KTS 76KTS

DSHP 56KTS 71KTS 77KTS 76KTS



...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 21.6N LONCUR = 63.0W DIRCUR = 305DEG SPDCUR = 20KT

LATM12 = 18.4N LONM12 = 59.9W DIRM12 = 313DEG SPDM12 = 22KT

LATM24 = 16.5N LONM24 = 56.0W

WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 50NM WNDM12 = 20KT

CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = M

RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



$$

NNNN
they fix up the run for ya ike
Wait, Europe NAMES their highs and lows? What a silly practice.
Quoting largeeyes:
Anyone got a quikscat on 92L?
navy got a partial but not complete

These models are all in agreement that something will come from 92L. The CMC is the one showing a substantial system smacking the Carols.
looks like 92L is moveing NW
1587. GatorWX
Looks like a surface low trying to form off the Carolina coast. Easily visible on radar.
Good Morning.

Blog's a little slow this a.m. so thought I'd ask a question. I noticed the other day someone said something about a user map for the main bloggers here...is it possible to get a copy, or is that something one has to compile individually?
Quoting Orcasystems:
These models are all in agreement that something will come from 92L. The CMC is the one showing a substantial system smacking the Carols.


That CMC run is awful. Is it the only outlier model that brings this system into NC or SC?
Thanks, Keeper. Not even anything close to a COC.
Quoting laflastormtracker:


That CMC run is awful. Is it the only outlier model that brings this system into NC or SC?


Its the only one on that link that hits it, the others show it staying off shore.
1592. IKE
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
they fix up the run for ya ike


I see that...lol...thanks.
Quoting largeeyes:
Thanks, Keeper. Not even anything close to a COC.
its incomplete we have to wait for a better snapshot later today hopefully
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Noticed the CMC says "not available"...NOGP and a couple others missing too from that...
Know why the models may be trending east this morning?
1598. Engine2
Quoting laflastormtracker:
Know why the models may be trending east this morning?

We also have to remember that since this thing doesn't have a LLC the models don't have a fixed point to initialize on
1599. GatorWX
Quoting earthlydragonfly:
That African wave coming off the coast right now is quite impressive.


I agree and has looked impressive during its trek across the continent
1600. IKE
What I think of when I see the latest tracks for 92L....riptides again along the east coast.
1601. GatorWX
93L looks impressive, but I'm afraid it's time is numbered
I got to go get some stuff done check back in at noon when iam on lunch later all
Models picking up on the affect of the high pressure currently to its Northeast?
These models are worthless until there is SOME sort of COC. Kepper, those lines are dead straight, so not even a hint really.
1605. NEwxguy
If 92L doesn't slow down it will get swept out to sea.
IKE, and another chance for me to embarass myself trying to surf. WOot!
Good Morning Everyone!

Looks like 92L is improving in organization in spite of 30 knots of southerly shear...

Now the 850/700mb vorticity, surface convergence and upper level divergence are all co-located.


In addition to the shear, the strong low/mid level flow driven by the strong pressure gradient between the Bermuda High and 92L will make it difficult for the circulation to close off on the west side.

There are decent southerlies on the east side and very strong easterlies to the north, but no signs of northerlies or westerlies in the western half of the circulation.
Quoting NEwxguy:
If 92L doesn't slow down it will get swept out to sea.
thats a good thing
1609. NEwxguy
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
thats a good thing


Yes, a very good thing!
Quoting FloridaTigers:
Wait, Europe NAMES their highs and lows? What a silly practice.


It is what it is. I guess it makes tracking and discussion simpler, especially for laypeople. European windstorm names
1611. Engine2
Quoting NEwxguy:


Yes, a very good thing!

An extremely good thing
21.7? What am I missing? This image is only an hour and 40 minutes old.

Africa-Atlantic trying to spin up
Quoting FloridaTigers:
Wait, Europe NAMES their highs and lows? What a silly practice.


most of New england names winter storms
1615. IKE
Quoting TheCaneWhisperer:
21.7? What am I missing? This image is only an hour and 40 minutes old.



Look at the floater on 92L. There's nothing at 19.5N and 63.5W.
1616. IKE
NW flow and low 60 temps @ night, in the middle of hurricane season. El Nino has torn up the East Coast this yr. Cold fronts keep coming and are lead blockers against any storm trying to landfall in the U.S. Danny should form by late Thursday = fish ??
Quoting kanc2001:


most of New england names winter storms


Mr. Freeze?
Quoting TheCaneWhisperer:
21.7? What am I missing? This image is only an hour and 40 minutes old.



Not sure you're missing anything...

First of all, I don't agree with a closed low.

Second, I think the ~22°N 63.5°W area is where the best convergence and vorticity are located.
Most of those names can't be repeated in a public forum when the mods are looking though.
Quoting tbonehfx:


It is what it is. I guess it makes tracking and discussion simpler, especially for laypeople. European windstorm names
Interesting bit of weather trivia. Thanks.
Quoting mikatnight:


Noticed the CMC says "not available"...NOGP and a couple others missing too from that...


Missing global models do not develop the circulation and thus do not show a track. Maybe the 12Z with a little stronger system (25 Kt init) will be able to hang on to the circulation. One other thing to note, the TVCN is offset to the left. That is the influence of the EMX (ECMWF) which the NHC does not release the data on.
Considering European highs - and lows - can produce 40ft seas and stuff, I wouldn't be surprised...
92l seems so far from being organized. How is it red?
First time poster here -- though I've been reading for a couple of years :) It's getting a bit showery and damp here in the UK (big surprise) ahead of the remains of Bill - so I was nosying at the metoffice IR plot (http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/satpics/latest_IR.html), and noticed the storm appeared to split in half on its way across the atlantic - one bit heading to us, and one bit heading south past Spain. Anyone got any idea what happened? Apologies if it is a noob question :D
Quoting mikatnight:


An even sillier practice is letting mass murderers go free. We should boycott all products from those miserable bastards.



I know how ya feel.
Quoting mikatnight:


An even sillier practice is letting mass murderers go free. We should boycott all products from those miserable bastards.


270 dead and one free over prostate cancer? What's that woth for the price of oil to England.

Do red circles ever just go Poof, or do they usally develop. I don't thin the NHC used cirles last year?
Blue Angels are up and at it here on the west side this morning!
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


YIKES!
Cyclone Oz will be home today. I can't wait to see his video!
The CMC model really likes 92L.
1635. NEwxguy
The big question to determine the track of 92L is when the trough moves through us here in the northeast thurs. and friday,up into northeast Canada,and a block occurs,will the trough predicted to form in the midwest cause it to move north rather than out to sea.Too many questions at this point.
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Blue Angels are up and at it here on the west side this morning!


Up, up, and away!

Good Morning! Looks like TX didn't get the cooler dryer memo. Lol. But we'll take the troughs. Keep 'em comin' Mother Nature. :)

81 °F
Partly Cloudy
Humidity: 74%
Dew Point: 72 °F
Wind: 8 mph from the ENE
Pressure: 30.03 in (Rising)
Heat Index: 85 °F
Visibility: 8.0 miles
UV: 2 out of 16
Clouds: Few 7000 ft
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 13 ft


Quoting IKE:


Look at the floater on 92L. There's nothing at 19.5N and 63.5W.

Loop
1639. crownwx
Quoting StormW:
I think a COC will be closer to where TCW has that graphic posted.


Closer to 19.4 North/63.6 West Storm?
Preliminary Extended Forecast Discussion


THE PROBLEM OF THE DAY CONTINUES TO BE A DEVELOPING TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE...NOW NEAR 21.5N 61.5W...WHICH CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT
DIFFERENCES AND DAY-TO-DAY CHANGES WITHIN THE MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE. ALL THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE HAVE TRENDED WESTWARD WITH ITS
TRACK SINCE THIS TIME YESTERDAY WHILE THEIR FORWARD MOTION HAS
SHOWN GOOD CONTINUITY. HOWEVER...THE 00Z MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE SHOWS THE ECMWF MEMBERS MORE WEST/INLAND THAN THE
CANADIAN/GEFS MEMBERS WHICH ARE OFFSHORE. THE NON-ETA 03Z SREF
MEMBERS ALSO PREFER AN OFFSHORE TRACK WHILE THE ETA MEMBERS HEAD
THE POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE TOWARDS THE CAROLINAS. CHOSE TO
SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE IN THE ENSEMBLE SPREAD AND TRACK THE SYSTEM
CLOSE TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD...WHICH LED TO ADDITIONAL
ACCELERATION FROM THE NIGHT SHIFT PROGS. THIS PREFERRED SOLUTION
MIRRORS A SLIGHTLY SLOWER VERSION OF THE 06Z DGEX WITH THIS
CYCLONE. HEAVY RAINFALL SHOULD SPREAD TO THE LEFT OF ITS TRACK
ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH SOUTHERN AND EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND...IF THIS TRACK VERIFIES. THE COORDINATION CALL WITH TPC
AT 16Z SHOULD BE INTERESTING TODAY...AND COULD LEAD TO CHANGES IN
THIS PREFERENCE.


Preliminary Graphics
new blog out
Angels buzzed our factory in a starburst once. We made the generators for the F-18E/F and C/D.
Quoting kanc2001:


most of New england names winter storms


Here in Nova Scotia, we had a massive nor'easter about 4 months after Hurricane Juan hit us in 2003. Lots of snow 38+" in 36 hours and winds gusting to 140 km/h. The local media somehow got to calling it "White Juan". Which strikes me as funny.. does that make the hurricane "Brown Juan"?
1644. Murko
Quoting mikatnight:


An even sillier practice is letting mass murderers go free. We should boycott all products from those miserable bastards.


Don't be an idiot, what use is that going to be? I don't agree that he should have been released, but it was their decision and their law that allowed it. Why don't we boycott US goods for funding the IRA?

M
Sounds like yer trollin to me Murky.
I am in Dominica - Windward Isles. Hope that 92 fizzles out. 50% sounds high chance though.

I will keep in touch if it gets nasty. Too early is the season for that surely? Still the water has been especially warm here since March.