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Bill intensifies to Category 4; globe has 5th warmest July on record

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:28 PM GMT on August 19, 2009

Category 4 Hurricane Bill is now the the fourth strongest tropical cyclone to appear on the planet so far this year, and may grow even stronger. Visible and infrared satellite imagery continue to show an impressive, well-organized, hurricane, with plenty of low-level spiral banding and upper-level outflow well-established on all sides except the west. On Bill's west side, upper-level winds from the west are creating a modest 10 knots of wind shear, which is giving the hurricane a bit of a squashed appearance there.

Wind shear is forecast to remain low to moderate, 5-15 knots, for the next four days. Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) will rise steadily from 28.5°C today to 29°C on Friday. Total ocean heat content is at a maximum today, and will gradually decline over the next four days. Bill should be able to take advantage of these favorable conditions a remain a major hurricane the next three days.


Figure 1. Visible satellite image from NASA's Aqua spacecraft at 12:40pm EDT Tuesday August 18, 2009. Image credit: NASA GSFC.

Water vapor satellite loops show a small "short-wave" trough of low pressure to the north-northwest of Bill, and this trough has turned Bill on a more northwesterly track over the past two days. Bill will miss the Lesser Antilles Islands, and the main impact of the hurricane on these islands will be high waves. The short wave trough (so called because it has a relatively small amplitude and wavelength) is not strong enough to turn Bill due north, and Bill is also expected to miss Bermuda. High waves and sustained winds of 20 - 30 mph are the worst that Bermuda is likely to get from Bill.


Figure 2. Visible satellite image of Bill's eye zoomed in, taken from NASA's Aqua spacecraft at 12:40pm EDT Tuesday August 18, 2009. Image credit: NASA GSFC.

An unusually strong "long wave" trough of low pressure (called long wave because of its large amplitude and wavelength) is expected to develop along the U.S. East Coast late this week. This trough will turn Bill to the north, and also bring high levels of wind shear in the 40 - 65 knot range on Sunday. Exactly where this turn occurs is still not clear. The models continue to be in two camps: an eastern camp (GFS, GFDL, HWRF, and ECMWF) that takes Bill 300 - 500 miles east of Cape Cod, and a more western camp (NOGAPS, UKMET) that bring Bill within 150 - 200 miles of Cape Cod. Both sets of models bring Bill ashore over the Canadian provinces of Newfoundland or Nova Scotia. Bill will be weakening rapidly as it makes landfall, and is likely to be a Category 1 hurricane if it hits Nova Scotia, or strong tropical storm if it hits Newfoundland.

Bill's big waves
Large swells from Bill will begin impacting the U.S. East coast from Florida to Maine beginning Friday night or Saturday morning. Seas will build to 5 - 10 feet in the offshore waters from central Florida northwards to South Carolina, and to 10 - 15 feet from North Carolina to Cape Cod. Near shore, waves will be about 40% less. This will cause a significant coastal erosion event along some portions of the coast. The latest run of the NOAA Wavewatch III model suggests that significant wave heights near Bill's center will reach 50 feet on Sunday. Since maximum wave height is typically about a factor of 1.9 greater than the significant wave height (which is the average trough-to-crest height of the top 1/3 largest waves), a few huge waves near Bill's center may reach 95 feet high.

Possible impacts to New England
The current set of computer model runs predicts that the center of Bill will pass Cape Cod, Massachusetts Sunday afternoon or evening. Tropical storm-force sustained winds of 39 mph or greater currently extend out 185 miles to the west of Bill's center, so that if Bill maintains its current wind distribution, Cape Cod could see sustained winds of about 40 mph Sunday night if the models predicting a more westerly path are correct. However, Bill will not keep this same radius of winds. The hurricane will weaken considerably beginning Sunday morning, once the storm gets caught up in the approaching long wave trough. High wind shear of 40 - 65 knots due to strong southwesterly winds aloft will act to compress the hurricane in the east-west direction, keeping the hurricane's strongest winds away from Cape Cod. The highest winds are likely to be no more than 30 mph on Cape Cod from Bill, if the storm follows the track of the western camp of models nearest to the Massachusetts. A few rain squalls may affect coastal Massachusetts, but the main impact of Bill on New England is likely to be coastal erosion from high waves.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The remains of Tropical Storm Ana are bringing scattered heavy rain showers to the Bahamas and Florida today. The remains are disorganized, and are not likely to re-develop. The only model calling for a new tropical cyclone to develop in the Atlantic over the next seven days is the GFS model, which predicts development off the coast of Africa about 7 days from now.

Fifth warmest July on record globally; a cold July in the U.S.
The globe recorded its fifth warmest July since record keeping began in 1880, according to NOAA's National Climatic Data Center. NOAA rated the period January - July 2009 as the sixth warmest such period on record. NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies rated July 2009 as the 2nd warmest July on record, behind July of 1998. For the second month in a row, global ocean Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) in July were the warmest on record, 0.59°C (1.06°F) above the 20th century average. This broke the previous July record set in 1998. The record July SSTs were due in part to an ongoing El Niño event in the Eastern Pacific, which has substantially warmed a large stretch of the tropical Eastern Pacific Ocean. As El Niño conditions mature during the coming months, near-record global ocean and land temperatures will probably continue. Now that El Niño conditions have been well-established for three months, the atmosphere has begun to heat up in response. It typically takes up to seven months for the atmosphere to heat up in response to ocean heating from an El Niño. This may explain why June of 2009, which independent assessments by NOAA, NASA, and the UK Hadley center agreed was the 2nd or 3rd warmest June on record at the surface, recorded only average satellite-measured temperatures in the lower atmosphere. In contrast, the July satellite-measured temperatures in the lower atmosphere were the 2nd or 3rd warmest on record, in agreement with the assessments that surface temperatures were the 2nd to 5th warmest on record.


Figure 3. Departure of temperature from average for July 2009. Image credit: NOAA/NCDC.

A cold July for the U.S.
For the contiguous U.S., the average July temperature of 23.1°C (73.5°F) was the coolest since 1994, and July temperatures were the 27th coolest in the 115-year record, according to the National Climatic Data Center. Ohio, Illinois, Indiana, Pennsylvania, Iowa, and West Virginia experienced their coolest ever July. Kentucky, Missouri, Michigan, and Wisconsin recorded their second coolest July in history. A strong trough of low pressure parked itself over the eastern portion of the U.S. in July, funneling down plenty of cold air from Canada. In the western U.S., a ridge of high pressure dominated, bringing unusually hot conditions. Arizona recorded its 3rd warmest July on record, and Seattle, Washington recorded its hottest day in history on July 28, notching a 103°F reading. This was 3°F above the previous record set in 1994.

U.S. precipitation was near average in July, with the month ranking 40th wettest in the 115-year record. U.S. tornado activity was above average in July, according to NOAA's Storm Prediction Center. However, no tornado deaths occurred in July.

At the end of July, 14% of the contiguous United States was in moderate-to-exceptional drought. This is a drop from the 19% figure observed at the beginning of the year. These extreme drought regions were exclusively in South and Central Texas.

I'll have an update Thursday morning.

Jeff Masters

Climate Summaries Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

2001. IMA
Quoting HopquickSteve:


I would love a "don't speak with certainty rule", or a little button that can pop a disclaimer on someone.


AMEN! I think I've found the first person to go on my list this year.

Good morning, y'all :)
that north west now if your a teacher and want to teach a class what nw looks like have them look now
get your avatars first
2004. 7544
Quoting leftovers:
HURRICANE WARNING N OF 23N E OF 71W FRI AND FRI NIGHT this interest me


isnt that the bahamas
Quoting cajunmoma:
I just can't help but think about the situation that arrived with Katrina here in Louisiana. I realize that it has been downed to a Cat 3, however, a Cat 3 can cause some major damange. I am worried about the NE area. How will they get all the people out if it hits an area like NY?? I mean, I guess I get nervous because I lived through a situation like that, but if I were those people in the NE I wouldn't take any chances with this storm. Too many glass buildings ya know.

Oh Good Morning to all!!!


I am originally from Long Island. You are not the first person to mention evacuating the NY area. I am here to tell you, there is no possibility of evacuating Long Island, for example, and even the island of Manhattan (between the mainland and Long Island) is a huge stretch. There are far too many people and far too few bridges and tunnels off of these two islands. My opinion is that it would take weeks to evacuate, not days.

Having said that, on Long Island, we have been through hurricanes before, because of how it sticks out off the east coast (south of Connecticut, etc.) though not often and nothing as major as a Cat 3 or 4. Still Long Island, geographically, is a BIG island, and not all of it is coastline. I imagine that evacuations would be similar to how they are done in Pinellas County in Florida where I now live, which is a peninsula, smaller than the size of Long Island. The barrier islands and coastline would be evacuated, and those folks would move inland, or in the case of Long Island it's probably more accurate to say that they would pull more into the center of the island.

I was at college in Upstate NY in 1985, when Gloria hit Long Island (where my folks and my sister still lived) with 85 mph winds and a forward speed of 35mph--combined winds of about 120mph if you do the math. They were without power or phones for over a week. But they survived, and the house survived. There was never any concept of evacuation. On a good day, without major traffic, it would have taken my parents 2 hours to get "off of" Long Island. They would have been in stopped traffic, stuck in their cars when the hurricane hit, if there was any attempt at evacuation. It's simply not feasible.
2006. IKE
2007. P451
Quoting hunkerdown:
don't analyse every satellite update, click the lat/long tab and look at the average track over the whole loop...you will see a NW track.


I don't want this to seem as if I'm coming at you, so I'm putting this little disclaimer here first, but I do want to say something regarding this and yesterday's discussions of which a few seemed really annoyed over.

Yes, this is true that you plot over the long term to get a proper overall heading, however as someone pointed out last night these jogs do add up in the long run when it comes to plotting a future course.

Personally I thought discussing and analyzing the jogs yesterday was interesting.

They were also more than just eyewall wobbles. When they occurred the satellite presentation of the storm went downhill. This suggested that something of influence was at work.

That makes analyzing the jogs of importance and what have we seen? The storm has weakened. So it was not without merit.

I don't see the desire to discount the jogs and what they mean and discredit those who were discussing them. We weren't talking about one temporary jog due to an EWRC and claiming the storm was now rocketing off in a different direction for good. We were talking about numerous changes in course that also coincided with a marked difference in the satellite presentation of the storm. To me that validates the discussion as worthwhile.

And lastly I really don't see the harm in discussing the hurricane's every move. It seemed to really get on a couple of people's nerves and well that's on them not on us who were merely discussing Hurricane Bill on a public tropical blog with fellow weather hobbyists.

But well...what can you do. Me? I'm going to keep discussing the weather with those who desire to do so.

And with that, off to look up some images, models, and loops, and post them when I get a chance.
Good Morning All. Just got up and who could i see outside my window, tail end of Bill. Very dark skies, wind picking up. the Northern Range have some pretty heavy rainfall right now. Ok, going to earn a living. Laterz folks.
Nope ..Dropped to a 3. For a while anyway! NY still may get a surprise The city itself is quite low, and a surge can make a serious mess.

Quoting IMA:


AMEN! I think I've found the first person to go on my list this year.

Good morning, y'all :)


Thanks,i always wanted to be on youre list.
What do you think about Bill?Since youre seem to be so smart.Or are you afraid to tell youre opinion?
At least i dear to give mine.
No hard feelings.Amen.
2011. K8eCane
have any 8 am models come out yet?
2012. P451
BILL WV



It seems as if it tried to get it's act back together momentarily and then ended up ragged looking again. Of note is a nice smooth course heading.



It seems less lopsided this morning than it was late last evening. The affected regions are now the south and west. Yesterday they were north and east. It was said that it was going to begin encountering SW shear. It appears it has.





It would appear that Bill had peaked yesterday. I didn't want to say that until I saw it this morning but given it's continued weakened satellite presentation, weakened status, and increasingly hostile environment I would say there's a decent chance it did indeed peak.
2013. WxLogic
Good morning...
Quoting NY2FLTransplant:


I am originally from Long Island. You are not the first person to mention evacuating the NY area. I am here to tell you, there is no possibility of evacuating Long Island, for example, and even the island of Manhattan (between the mainland and Long Island) is a huge stretch. There are far too many people and far too few bridges and tunnels off of these two islands. My opinion is that it would take weeks to evacuate, not days.

Having said that, on Long Island, we have been through hurricanes before, because of how it sticks out off the east coast (south of Connecticut, etc.) though not often and nothing as major as a Cat 3 or 4. Still Long Island, geographically, is a BIG island, and not all of it is coastline. I imagine that evacuations would be similar to how they are done in Pinellas County in Florida where I now live, which is a peninsula, smaller than the size of Long Island. The barrier islands and coastline would be evacuated, and those folks would move inland, or in the case of Long Island it's probably more accurate to say that they would pull more into the center of the island.

I was at college in Upstate NY in 1985, when Gloria hit Long Island (where my folks and my sister still lived) with 85 mph winds and a forward speed of 35mph--combined winds of about 120mph if you do the math. They were without power or phones for over a week. But they survived, and the house survived. There was never any concept of evacuation. On a good day, without major traffic, it would have taken my parents 2 hours to get "off of" Long Island. They would have been in stopped traffic, stuck in their cars when the hurricane hit, if there was any attempt at evacuation. It's simply not feasible.



I understand what you are saying. I just NEVER want to see a repeat of what happened in NO. That was a mess. When Gustav came last year they put into effect Contraflow...and it seem to work really well. I guess having gone through so many of these things, it just scares me to think of all the people and no where to go. Take Ike for instance, it just skirted us and we still got really high winds inland here in Louisiana. The surge is a big threat as well, I don't think anyone really expected Ike to have such huge surge with it. It would just be nice if it were some way to get people out of harms way.
Morning All.

2007. P451 11:32 AM GMT on August 20, 2009 Hide this comment.

Quoting hunkerdown:
don't analyse every satellite update, click the lat/long tab and look at the average track over the whole loop...you will see a NW track.


With Bermuda being equivalent to a needle in a haystack, every jog does make a big difference. It looks like it is going to jog again to the right of the track this morning. All those jogs bring the storm closer and closer and a jog of a mere 50 miles could have HUGE ramifications on the small island. I think people who pick enjoy it and are merely here to cause problems instead of study the weather. NHC is for sure studying every jog to see if it corrects itself or if the track may need to be adjusted to accommodate. Study away I say and for those that don't like it, simply move on to the next post.
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #27
TYPHOON VAMCO (T0910)
15:00 PM JST August 20 2009
=========================================

SUBJECT: Category Four Typhoon South-southeast Minamitori-sima

At 6:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Vamco (945 hPa) located at 18.9N 157.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 90 knots with gusts of 130 knots. The typhoon is reported as moving northwest slowly

RSMC Dvorak Intensity: T6.0

Storm-Force Winds
================
70 NM from the center

Gale-Force Winds
===============
200 NM from the center in northeastern quadrant
160 NM from the center in southwestern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
=====================
24 HRS: 21.0N 156.3E - 100 knots (Cat 4/Typhoon)
48 HRS: 24.0N 154.7E - 100 knots (Cat 4/Typhoon)
72 HRS: 27.8N 153.5E - 95 knots (Cat 4/Typhoon)

Hello and Good Evening/Morning all.
1 question, Why isn't Typhoon Vamco listed as a Super Typhoon? Isn't Cat 4 Cat 5 normally classified as a Super Typhoon?
Cheers AussieStorm
2017. Ossqss
2007. P451 7:32 AM

Don't let them bother you. It is relevant and interesting. If we ignore the current things happening, we would only need to post every 6 hours on the updates and it is sure does break up the monotony :)
Ive noticed on Bills track, that he is going more degrees longitude than latitude. Its confusing that he going more W than N and is on a NW track, seems like it would be the other way around. Oh well just an observation.
if it did hit NY, at least it wouldn't take two weeks to pump the water out
Quoting cajunmoma:



I understand what you are saying. I just NEVER want to see a repeat of what happened in NO. That was a mess. When Gustav came last year they put into effect Contraflow...and it seem to work really well. I guess having gone through so many of these things, it just scares me to think of all the people and no where to go. Take Ike for instance, it just skirted us and we still got really high winds inland here in Louisiana. The surge is a big threat as well, I don't think anyone really expected Ike to have such huge surge with it. It would just be nice if it were some way to get people out of harms way.


You are right, of course. It scares me a bit too--should have put that in my first post! My family still lives on Long Island, near the north shore, but not that close to the coast. Obviously, the north shore doesn't get it as bad as the south shore since the land mass would likely slow Bill down considerably.

If all goes well with the current track, they won't feel more than some gusty winds...but it is something I am keeping my eye on, because it would simply be a monumental task--in my opinion impossible--to evacuate that many people when there are only a few ways off of the island.
Quoting cajunkid:
if it did hit NY, at least it wouldn't take two weeks to pump the water out



Lol...True!!
Looked at it wrong! Sorry folks
Quoting stormsurge39:
Ive noticed on Bills track, that he is going more degrees longitude than latitude. Its confusing that he going more W than N and is on a NW track, seems like it would be the other way around. Oh well just an observation.


A true NW track would mean he travelled the same distance west as north. Most of his track has been roughly WNW, which means 2 miles west for each mile north.
Quoting NY2FLTransplant:


You are right, of course. It scares me a bit too--should have put that in my first post! My family still lives on Long Island, near the north shore, but not that close to the coast. Obviously, the north shore doesn't get it as bad as the south shore since the land mass would likely slow Bill down considerably.

If all goes well with the current track, they won't feel more than some gusty winds...but it is something I am keeping my eye on, because it would simply be a monumental task--in my opinion impossible--to evacuate that many people when there are only a few ways off of the island.


Im just hoping Bill stays away...far far away!!
2026. Ossqss
Hey Aussie, here is what I found. Cheers to you with coffee in hand. LoL

Back to Basic Definitions Page | Back to Main FAQ Page

Subject: A3) What is a super-typhoon? What is a major hurricane ? What is an intense hurricane ?
Contributed by Stan Goldenberg




"Super-typhoon" is a term utilized by the U.S. Joint Typhoon Warning Center for typhoons that reach maximum sustained 1-minute surface winds of at least 65 m/s (130 kt, 150 mph). This is the equivalent of a strong Saffir-Simpson category 4 or category 5 hurricane in the Atlantic basin or a category 5 severe tropical cyclone in the Australian basin.

"Major hurricane" is a term utilized by the National Hurricane Center for hurricanes that reach maximum sustained 1-minute surface winds of at least 50 m/s (96 kt, 111 mph). This is the equivalent of category 3, 4 and 5 on the Saffir-Simpson scale.

"Intense hurricane" is an unofficial term , but is often used in the scientific literature. It is the same as "major hurricane".

Good loop to view the overall situation. Select the Trop Fcst Pts and NCEP Fronts. You can see the trough in the midwest and Bill.
2028. P451
CMC 00Z (note the second system it develops)




GFS 06Z (note the giant storm near iceland at the end)

2029. P451
Quoting TheCaneWhisperer:
With Bermuda being equivalent to a needle in a haystack, every jog does make a big difference. It looks like it is going to jog again to the right of the track this morning. All those jogs bring the storm closer and closer and a jog of a mere 50 miles could have HUGE ramifications on the small island. I think people who pick enjoy it and are merely here to cause problems instead of study the weather. NHC is for sure studying every jog to see if it corrects itself or if the track may need to be adjusted to accommodate. Study away I say and for those that don't like it, simply move on to the next post.


Well put and thanks.
2030. K8eCane
not in any way shape or form to discount any other areas potentially in harms way- but am i correct in assuming that the models are much closer to WILMINGTON NC dammit!
Have to get ready for work now. Thanks for all the help guys, I am still learning, and when you guys answer my questions, it definately help. Thanks Again, and everyone have a good day!!!
p451 thats nice. leftovers thinks the second system probally wont develop as easily as the canadian thinks. why you can only cry wolf once.
2033. P451
All the players are on the field....someone call the game. Timing is the key.

Quoting cajunmoma:


Im just hoping Bill stays away...far far away!!


Amen to that!!
2035. IKE
Quoting K8eCane:
not in any way shape or form to discount any other areas potentially in harms way- but am i correct in assuming that the models are much closer to WILMINGTON NC dammit!


No....at least 300 miles east of NC.....
2037. Ossqss



They still like the CV potential.
2038. P451
Quoting leftovers:
p451 thats nice. leftovers thinks the second system probally wont develop as easily as the canadian thinks.


Thanks. Yeah I don't know about that second one either. Those African waves haven't been as impressive once they hit the water as before.

Quoting K8eCane:
not in any way shape or form to discount any other areas potentially in harms way- but am i correct in assuming that the models are much closer to WILMINGTON NC dammit!


The models did appear to shift westward in regards to the carolina coastlines (just for presslord LOL) and the mid-atlantic, SE New England, etc.

I know a few were discussing a westward model shift last night.
2039. K8eCane
thank you Ike
thats what i was looking for was the actual miles
local mets aint even saying the actual miles
again thank you
2040. BGMom
Hello all - I asked a question before, and couldn't figure out how to find it. So much activity on the blog! It got buried. I was asking about how Bill might affect weather just northwest of Atlanta - if at all. And does the pollution shove rain away?
Anyway - I am writing now to voice irritation with a newscaster on tv today. After reading everything y'all have said - and how nothing is ever certain, this weather person blew off Bill with absolute certainty.
"Good news! Bill is an exciting storm - I like a good hurricane - but everyone is in the clear. It's going to miss the Bahamas, the East coast -" blah blah blah -- but she presented it as a "for sure."
Irritating.
As expected, Bill weakened overnight to a cat 3 storm. However, this weakening is only temporary. The inner core of the storm is starting to reorganize itself and cloud tops have started to cool once again. It appears the storm is coming into another area of excellent upper level diffluence and I fully expect a second peak in intensity tonight somewhere in the 150mph/935mb range.
The water temperature to the north and west of Bill is higher than anything he's been through so far, and it stays as warm for quite a long way north.


Quoting sullivanweather:
As expected, Bill weakened overnight to a cat 3 storm. However, this weakening is only temporary. The inner core of the storm is starting to reorganize itself and cloud tops have started to cool once again. It appears the storm is coming into another area of excellent upper level diffluence and I fully expect a second peak in intensity tonight somewhere in the 150mph/935mb range.


Indeed and add a more western track to all models.Today Bill is going WNW.
2044. IKE
Quoting K8eCane:
thank you Ike
thats what i was looking for was the actual miles
local mets aint even saying the actual miles
again thank you



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
658 AM EDT THU AUG 20 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OFF THE SOUTHEAST
UNITED STATES COAST THROUGH FRIDAY. A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN PUSH ACROSS
THE AREA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. HURRICANE BILL WILL PASS SEVERAL
HUNDRED MILES EAST OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY.

Bill is getting better Sully. His outflow is improving to the NW quadrant. Convection is strongest on the north side of the eyewall and the southern side is weak at best. I think he strengthens to a 150mph storm with a pressure in the 925 to 935 range.
Quoting BGMom:
Hello all - I asked a question before, and couldn't figure out how to find it. So much activity on the blog! It got buried. I was asking about how Bill might affect weather just northwest of Atlanta - if at all. And does the pollution shove rain away?
Anyway - I am writing now to voice irritation with a newscaster on tv today. After reading everything y'all have said - and how nothing is ever certain, this weather person blew off Bill with absolute certainty.
"Good news! Bill is an exciting storm - I like a good hurricane - but everyone is in the clear. It's going to miss the Bahamas, the East coast -" blah blah blah -- but she presented it as a "for sure."
Irritating.


Just like Hurricane Jeanne was surely going out to sea. The models were in great agreement on that until the pesky NoGaps picked up on the loop.
morning all,

I have a business trip set up for this weekend in NY and Boston, my question, should i cancel my trip or proceed? and what percentage of striking that area now?
Quoting justalurker:
morning all,

I have a business trip set up for this weekend in NY and Boston, my question, should i cancel my trip or proceed? and what percentage of striking that area now?


And the eye is shrinking.Putting his act together.
2049. P451
North Atlantic Wave Model (seems to follow the GFS model for Bill)

2049. P451
Great graphic.
2052. IKE
Quoting justalurker:
morning all,

I have a business trip set up for this weekend in NY and Boston, my question, should i cancel my trip or proceed? and what percentage of striking that area now?


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
751 AM EDT THU AUG 20 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE TRI-
STATE AREA TODAY. AN UPPER TROUGH TO OUR NORTHWEST WILL PUSH A
STRONG FRONT INTO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO KEEP MOST IMPACTS OF HURRICANE BILL TO OUR
EAST.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY SHOULD BE DRIER BEHIND THE UPPER
TROUGH.
2053. P451
Quoting yonzabam:
The water temperature to the north and west of Bill is higher than anything he's been through so far, and it stays as warm for quite a long way north.




Yes, but now what you look at is it's atmospheric environment. There are pockets of pretty good shear out there that will limit any explosive development from here on out.

He will be entering 29.5-30C right up until he reaches Bermuda's latitude. Yet, he will be running into heavier shear as well.

So the two will cancel out to some degree.

2054. P451
Quoting conchygirl:
2049. P451
Great graphic.


Thanks. It's a little big but I thought it was worth it to post.

Quoting TheCaneWhisperer:


Just like Hurricane Jeanne was surely going out to sea. The models were in great agreement on that until the pesky NoGaps picked up on the loop.


I remember when I sent my wife a pic of the first track showing Jeane looping back to hit us. She said "Not very f'in funny. How did I make that pic?" I told her it was really the official track. A few days later 30% more of my shingles were all over the yard ....
2057. breald
Quoting justalurker:
morning all,

I have a business trip set up for this weekend in NY and Boston, my question, should i cancel my trip or proceed? and what percentage of striking that area now?


You should be fine.

I think I will take a drive to the beach this weekend to see these huge waves.
Quoting breald:


You should be fine.

I think I will take a drive to the beach this weekend to see these huge waves.


With Bill going WNW today i dont think you will.
2060. breald
Quoting marknmelb:


I remember when I sent my wife a pic of the first track showing Jeane looping back to hit us. She said "Not very f'in funny. How did I make that pic?" I told her it was really the official track. A few days later 30% more of my shingles were all over the yard ....


Wasn't Jeanne thew one that did all kinds of loops and turn before it move ashore?
Thanks for the info!!

I kind of feel a little bit relieved, but I have till later today to cancel my trip so I will check back with you guys later to get an update..till then, thanks.

appreciate your comments.
2062. P451
So many models, generally so much agreement. Pretty fascinating actually.

Quoting P451:
So many models, generally so much agreement. Pretty fascinating actually.

Most of those tracks on that chart are a little farther westward than the forcasted track.
2064. P451
Recon out there now.

Found the center:



Highest readings SE quadrant:



Penetrating the NE quadrant now:

2065. breald
Quoting Category5hitsNewYork:

You guys are too lenient. Can you at least say that Bill is still a threat and it is unpredictable where he will go. We need watch it before we can say that the forecast will verify.
Don't let your guard down


I am watching it. I am just not going to get all panicky just yet. Things could change but the models seem to be the same they were 3 days ago. Pretty consistent.
Quoting BGMom:
Hello all - I asked a question before, and couldn't figure out how to find it. So much activity on the blog! It got buried. I was asking about how Bill might affect weather just northwest of Atlanta - if at all. And does the pollution shove rain away?
Anyway - I am writing now to voice irritation with a newscaster on tv today. After reading everything y'all have said - and how nothing is ever certain, this weather person blew off Bill with absolute certainty.
"Good news! Bill is an exciting storm - I like a good hurricane - but everyone is in the clear. It's going to miss the Bahamas, the East coast -" blah blah blah -- but she presented it as a "for sure."
Irritating.
My understanding (from this blog, and the Tropical Weather Discussion) is that nothing is written in stone for New England (and NY for that matter), and that Eastern Canada is very much at risk. Looks pretty clear for the rest of us.
Quoting breald:


I am watching it. I am just not going to get all panicky just yet. Things could change but the models seem to be the same they were 3 days ago. Pretty consistent.


I disagree,every day the models have taken Bill a little closer to the Eastcoast.
If this lasts one more day there is something going to be hit.
2069. IKE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
605 AM EDT THU AUG 20 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
VERY WARM AND HUMID WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO AT LEAST SATURDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE COMBINES WITH LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE GREAT
LAKES TO YIELD A PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS NEW ENGLAND.
THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...THEN BECOMING MORE
NUMEROUS FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE PROJECTED TRACK OF HURRICANE BILL
STILL APPEARS TO BE WELL EAST OF NANTUCKET SOMETIME SUNDAY. ITS MAIN
EFFECTS ON SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL BE IN THE FORM OF HIGH SURF AND
DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS TO OCEAN BEACHES BEGINNING LATE FRIDAY AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.



2070. P451
Quoting photonchaser:
Most of those tracks on that chart are a little farther westward than the forcasted track.


They're the spaghetti models mixed in with the more well known ones.

Here, here's a more standard look with the well known models:

BAM's CLIP SHIP LBAR HWRF CMC GFDL NOGAPS

Thanks very much 1999. breald
hurricane bill is moving nw at 20 mph..she is moving fast.
According to the latest NHC track, Bill is supposed to track directly North between 30N and 40N correct? I will believe it when I see it.
Quoting apocalyps:


I disagree,every day the models have taken Bill a little closer to the Eastcoast.
If this lasts one more day there is something going to be hit.
I agree almost every day the models are moving around and especialy the Ensemble models. They're predicting a New England landfall.
Quoting breald:


Wasn't Jeanne thew one that did all kinds of loops and turn before it move ashore?
i remember they had predicted the loop pretty good beforehand
2077. P451
Quoting Ossqss:
2007. P451 7:32 AM

Don't let them bother you. It is relevant and interesting. If we ignore the current things happening, we would only need to post every 6 hours on the updates and it is sure does break up the monotony :)


Yeah I hear ya, you're right, I should just let those comments pass. I've said my peace I will move on. Cheers.
2078. Engine2
Good Morning StormW - They are holding steady maybe a slight shift westward - us here on Long Island are hoping they stay out of our area
2079. IKE
Fall is getting closer. From the Birmingham,AL. discussion...

"COLD FRONT IS SET TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY. EXPECT THE
THREAT FOR SOME ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL OVER THE WEEKEND AS AN
UNSEASONABLY COOL AIRMASS MOVES IN. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RUN
WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR BOTH THE DAYTIME AND NIGHTTIME PERIODS. SOME
LOCATIONS MAY SEE UPPER 50S ON BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNING.
"
2080. P451
center

Where's the latest GFS ensembles?
2082. K8eCane
hi storm!
glad you came in
2083. IKE
Looks like they shifted east to me....

2084. Sting13
Quoting StormW:
Good morning!

Just got on...haven't looked at anything yet.

Did the models shift at all?


Very little, still going to make landfall/skirt eastern nova scotia (where i live) :(
2086. K8eCane
i was thinking they shifted east also ike
2087. IMA
Quoting IKE:
Fall is getting closer. From the Birmingham,AL. discussion...

"...UNSEASONABLY COOL AIRMASS MOVES IN. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RUN
WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR BOTH THE DAYTIME AND NIGHTTIME PERIODS. SOME
LOCATIONS MAY SEE UPPER 50S ON BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNING."


You'd never know it here in south-central TX! We're looking at triple digits, still - broke our record, by over 10 days, for most # of days in the triple digits. It's freakin' miserable!
GFS last four cycles
Red = 06Z
Blue = 00Z
Green = 18Z
Brown = 12Z

2090. IKE
Quoting IMA:


You'd never know it here in south-central TX! We're looking at triple digits, still - broke our record, by over 10 days, for most # of days in the triple digits. It's freakin' miserable!


True. Looked at San Antonio's forecast....upper 90's to near 100 the next 7 days. Most of the cooler air will be east of there.

Calling for mid 60's here in the inland Florida panhandle for Saturday and Sunday night. High's near 90.
According to the Weather Channel we have something called the "Wonder Jet Stream" and "Wonder Trough" that will absolutely and positively keep Bill off shore and out to sea. I believe there was no mention of Nova Scotia and thereabouts as being affected. Most of the models ram all that surge right up the Bay of Fundy. So the Wonder Jet is their theme for the day. So we can all quit worrying. Right? Right???????
2092. P451
Linked the center fixes. Likely to be some error here. Don't use to plot the true course. Just a graphic.




Highest Wind Barb: ENE of the center.




Latest WV: Improving Structure:





Looking more symmetrical:

Link

Dont know if this comes out and its really history now, but it shows the heavy seas outside my house yesterday on the Atlantic coast of Dominica with Bill over 700 miles away.
2094. bjdsrq


Very little, still going to make landfall/skirt eastern nova scotia (where i live) :(


Regardless, the right front quad will be *well* offshore, along with the most interesting weather.
Quoting cajunmoma:



Lol...True!!


LOL wrong, it'll take longer to pump out the subway system, and the salt water will eat up the concrete, which will have to totally rebuilt!
Good morning

While Bill is the only game in town there is an area of interest near 11N 23W in the form of a weak surface low that is starting to develop convection. Something else to keep an eye on IMO
2098. P451
Quoting islandblow:
Link

Dont know if this comes out and its really history now, but it shows the heavy seas outside my house yesterday on the Atlantic coast of Dominica with Bill over 700 miles away.


You can't link from your hard drive (well, you could, but that's a different story)

Go to tinypic.com

upload the image to that site.

copy and paste the link they give you (direct link for layouts)

2099. bjdsrq
Quoting islandblow:
href="C:\Users\Lennox\Pictures\DSC_0099.JPG"Link
Dont know if this comes out and its really history now, but it shows the heavy seas outside my house yesterday on the Atlantic coast of Dominica with Bill over 700 miles away.


You can't link photos from your local machine's hard drive and expect people on the internet to see it. You'll need to post the photo to your WU photo account.
2100. NEwxguy
Still feel fairly safe here in eastern Mass,but this thing is going to be a little close for comfort,if that trough is slower than they thought,things could change in a hurry
2101. Ossqss
Just remember folks, be prepared regardless. The models provide forecast positions, they are not called surecast positions for a reason.

Patraps blog can provide valuable information and also the link on the main tropical page on WU for OneStorm, which is a very helpful guided helper for you to create a complete plan including important check lists and logged contact info and action plan etc. It walks you through the whole process and you will have a better comfort level with your situation with the information provided. I did anyhow. You will need to register to use the site.

www.onestorm.org

http://www.onestorm.org/Default.aspx?ReturnUrl=/OnePlan/
Morning everyone! Slight risk for us in north NJ with the approaching shortwave...



It looks to me like the 06z GFS run is intensifying the shortwave far quicker than in previous runs, causing it to slow down forward motion and nudging Bill a bit further west. Portions of South New England/Cape Cod may briefly fall into the TS wind field if this forecast plays out.

Good morning!
Quoting Ossqss:
Just remember folks, be prepared regardless. The models provide forecast positions, they are not called surecast positions for a reason.

Patraps blog can provide valuable information and also the link on the main tropical page on WU for OneStorm, which is a very helpful guided helper for you to create a complete plan including important check lists and logged contact info and action plan etc. It walks you through the whole process and you will have a better comfort level with your situation with the information provided. I did anyhow. You will need to register to use the site.

www.onestorm.org

http://www.onestorm.org/Default.aspx?ReturnUrl=/OnePlan/


Even a direct landfall on my state by a Category 1 would have devastating effects...most people here are convinced it can't happen, which of course is a deadly assumption.
Quoting NEwxguy:
Still feel fairly safe here in eastern Mass,but this thing is going to be a little close for comfort,if that trough is slower than they thought,things could change in a hurry


That trough is already slower then NHC thought.
And it is not there yet.
Quoting cycloone:
i remember they had predicted the loop pretty good beforehand
Really? I don't think so at all. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2004/JEANNE_graphics.shtml
Quoting Category5hitsNewYork:

I think this will be a trend with the other models. The shortwave shall weaken and it will pull a new england hurricane. The track should be shifted westward. I would not be surprised to see a NNW movement with this storm on Saturday


In that case the shortwave would grow stronger more quickly than anticipated...the deeper it gets, the slower it would move.
2111. P451
2112. 21N71W
Morning All,
Are we safe now in the Bahamas and in the Turks and Caicos.....one more day of worry maybe?
Some interesting excerpts from NWS NYC's area forecast discussion...

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SLOWLY TOWARDS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. DYNAMICS IN MESOSCALE MODELS FAVORABLE FOR A NEARLY
STATIONARY BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN...WITH THE MAIN AXIS
ACROSS NORTHERN NJ AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY THRU SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. IF ALL INGREDIENTS COME TOGETHER...RAINFALL RATES OF 2
INCHES PER HOUR ARE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...THE GLOBAL MODELS (GFS/EC)
NOT HITTING THIS SETUP AS HARD. IT SHOULD ALSO BE NOTED THAT THIS
IS NOT A RAIN BAND DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE BILL
...AND
HAS ITS OWN JET SUPPORT. LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND
PLACEMENT PRECLUDE THE ISSUANCE OF ANY HEADLINES AT THIS
TIME...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION IN THE HWO.

BASED ON THE LATEST FORECAST FROM TCP...BILL WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
A FEW HUNDRED MILES TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF MONTAUK POINT SUNDAY
MORNING
. FOR THE LATEST AND MOST UP TO DATE INFORMATION...REFER TO
FORECASTS/ADVISORIES ISSUED BY TCP. AT THIS TIME...THE MAIN
THREAT TO THE AREA WILL BE HIGH SURF/BEACH EROSION/DEADLY RIP
CURRENTS
...AND MINOR COASTAL FLOODING OVER THE WEEKEND. IT IS
WORTH NOTING THAT THE RADIUS OF 12 FT SEAS EXTENDS SOME 300 MILES
FROM THE CENTER OF THE STORM
...THUS THE IMPACTS DUE TO WAVE ACTION
WILL BE FAR REACHING.
2114. P451
VAMCO

Bill is getting stronger.
This morning's IR of Bill looks very similar to yesterday morning's IR. Been recovered impressively on long loop it seems.
Complete Graphics Update:
HURRICANE BILL 5 am NHC Advisory
**Tropical Storm Watch may be required for Bermuda later today

My Bill Projected Path (from 8 pm last night):

TROPICAL DEPRESSION GUILLERMO (Final Advisory-11 pm last night)

TYPHOON VAMCO
2118. P451
Quoting TerraNova:
Morning everyone! Slight risk for us in north NJ with the approaching shortwave...



It looks to me like the 06z GFS run is intensifying the shortwave far quicker than in previous runs, causing it to slow down forward motion and nudging Bill a bit further west. Portions of South New England/Cape Cod may briefly fall into the TS wind field if this forecast plays out.



We need everything we can get here in Jersey. Growing tired of the muggy weather. Here in central jersey the last few nights the storms died before they got to me here. Some nice wind 2 nights ago though.

Worse off is the air quality. It's pretty tough to breathe this stuff. We need a break!

Blog not extremely active today. Have people given up on Bill??
Buoy 41044 - 21.652 N 58.695 W
To the East of Bill




Buoy 41049 27.500 N 63.000 W
NNW'ish of Bill

2121. P451
Just some scattered showers in and around Bermuda.





Yeah, this image could prove interesting in the near future.
Additional banding wrapping around the west. Seems SW shear is not having much of an impact at present time.
2123. P451
Quoting AllStar17:
Blog not extremely active today. Have people given up on Bill??


It's a bit early yet. Also when a storm is no longer a threat to the Gulf or the Carribean we lose a lot of posters.
Quoting 21N71W:
Morning All,
Are we safe now in the Bahamas and in the Turks and Caicos.....one more day of worry maybe?
No worrying necessary at this point. Bill would find it impossible to trek due west at this time.
Quoting AllStar17:
Blog not extremely active today. Have people given up on Bill??


If it's not a threat to Florida you lose at least half the commenters.
2126. breald
Quoting TropicTraveler:
According to the Weather Channel we have something called the "Wonder Jet Stream" and "Wonder Trough" that will absolutely and positively keep Bill off shore and out to sea. I believe there was no mention of Nova Scotia and thereabouts as being affected. Most of the models ram all that surge right up the Bay of Fundy. So the Wonder Jet is their theme for the day. So we can all quit worrying. Right? Right???????



Where are they going to send Cantore if this wonder trough is going to keep this off shore? Maybe they will put him on a boat off the shore of Sable island...LOL.
Quoting P451:


It's a bit early yet. Also when a storm is no longer a threat to the Gulf or the Carribean we lose a lot of posters.


Which is very sad. Nova Scotia, Bermuda, Newfoundland, the East Coast, etc. are very much not out of the woods.
there is an area 11N 25W wich at the moment has little convection but has a vigorous circulation.the area is under low wind shear and the sal is weak. this area should be monitored as it moves west next few days
WOCN31 CWHX 201200
HURRICANE BILL INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN
HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 9.00 AM ADT THURSDAY
20 AUGUST 2009.

THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 3.00 PM ADT

...HURRICANE BILL EXPECTED TO IMPACT ATLANTIC CANADA ON SUNDAY...

1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION

AT 9.00 AM ADT... HURRICANE BILL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.3 N
AND LONGITUDE 61.3 W... ABOUT 275 NAUTICAL MILES OR 505 KM
NORTH NORTHEAST OF ST MAARTEEN. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 115 KNOTS... 213 KM/H... AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 948
MB. BILL IS MOVING NORTHWEST AT 16 KNOTS... 30 KM/H.

2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH

DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND
ADT MB KTS KMH
AUG 20 9.00 AM 22.3N 61.3W 948 115 213
AUG 20 9.00 PM 24.0N 63.5W 942 120 222
AUG 21 9.00 AM 26.5N 65.7W 942 120 222
AUG 21 9.00 PM 29.4N 67.4W 942 120 222
AUG 22 9.00 AM 33.0N 68.0W 948 115 213
AUG 22 9.00 PM 36.6N 68.2W 952 110 204
AUG 23 9.00 AM 41.3N 66.3W 965 95 176 TRANSITIONING
AUG 23 9.00 PM 44.5N 62.2W 976 80 148 TRANSITIONING
AUG 24 9.00 AM 49.2N 54.7W 987 65 120 TRANSITIONING
AUG 24 9.00 PM 52.0N 43.9W 994 55 102 POST-TROPICAL
AUG 25 9.00 AM 55.4N 25.8W 994 55 102 POST-TROPICAL

3. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY
AT THIS POINT IT IS TOO EARLY FOR WARNINGS TO BE ISSUED AS BILL
REMAINS WELL TO OUR SOUTH.

4. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY
GIVEN THE CURRENT CHC TRACK HURRICANE BILL IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT
MARITIME MARINE AREAS LATER THIS WEEKEND, HOWEVER IT IS TOO EARLY
TO ISSUE WARNINGS.

5. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION FOR METEOROLOGISTS

A. ANALYSIS
CURRENTLY FOLLOWING NHC.

B. PROGNOSTIC
FOLLOWING NHC ON BOTH TRACK AND INTENSITY.

BILL IS TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD NORTH OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON THIS PATH FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. AFTER
THAT A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES WHILE AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE ATLANTIC.
THESE TWO FEATURES WILL STEER BILL NORTHWARD AND EVENTUALLY
NORTHEASTWARD LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. TRACK GUIDANCE IS
TIGHTLY CLUSTERED FOR THE FIRST 2 TO 3 DAYS BUT THEN BECOMES
DIVERGENT ON BOTH DIRECTION AND SPEED.

EARLY CYCLONE PHASE SPACE DIAGRAMS INDICATE BILL WILL BEGIN TO
UNDERGO EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION ON THE 23RD AND WILL BE COMPLETED
EARLY ON THE 24TH.

C. PUBLIC WEATHER
NOTHING TO SAY AT THIS POINT.

D. MARINE WEATHER

PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM)
TIME GALES STORMS HURRICANE
NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW
20/12Z 200 175 100 175 105 90 60 90 75 45 30 45
21/00Z 200 175 100 175 105 90 60 90 75 45 30 45
21/12Z 200 175 100 175 105 90 60 90 75 45 30 45
22/00Z 200 175 100 175 105 90 60 90 75 45 30 45
22/12Z 200 175 100 175 105 90 60 90 75 45 30 45
23/00Z 200 175 100 175 105 90 60 90 75 60 30 30
23/12Z 225 225 120 175 120 120 70 90 75 60 30 30
24/00Z 225 225 150 120 120 120 90 60 60 60 0 0
24/12Z 240 240 150 120 150 150 90 60 60 60 0 0
25/00Z 240 240 150 120 150 150 90 60 0 0 0 0
25/12Z 240 240 150 120 150 150 90 60 0 0 0 0


END MARCH/BOWYER

Quoting P451:


We need everything we can get here in Jersey. Growing tired of the muggy weather. Here in central jersey the last few nights the storms died before they got to me here. Some nice wind 2 nights ago though.

Worse off is the air quality. It's pretty tough to breathe this stuff. We need a break!



I'm in north/central NJ too and I'm hoping for nothing other than surf advisories (I live 15-20 miles inland, so it's not really a big deal to me.)

Hopefully after Bill scrubs his way up the coast, he'll drag some of this awful air quality with him. The heat/humidity isn't SO bad, but the haze/pollution is making a lot of people miserable.
From NWS Philadelphia:

HURRICANE BILL COULD BE A RATHER LARGE HURRICANE AS
IT SLIDES WELL TO OUR EAST THIS WEEKEND, AND PERHAPS THIS MAY CAUSE
THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO SLOW DOWN SOME
AS IT MAY BE FORCED TO DIG
SOUTH SOME /A POSITIVELY TO NEUTRAL TILTED TROUGH/ BEFORE GOING
EASTWARD. THIS MAY SLOW UP THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THERE
SEEMS TO BE MORE OF A MODEL CONSENSUS OF SOME SORT OF LOW/MID LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ZONE BECOMING ESTABLISHED BETWEEN THE INCOMING
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND THE HURRICANE
WELL TO OUR EAST. THIS ZONE
WOULD TEND TO BE ENHANCED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE END
RESULT COULD BE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY, WHICH
POSSIBLY MAY LEAD TO LOCALLY TORRENTIAL RAINFALL GIVEN THE RATHER
MOIST ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE.
Quoting AllStar17:


Which is very sad. Nova Scotia, Bermuda, Newfoundland, the East Coast, etc. are very much not out of the woods.


Actually,they are completely in the woods.
Bill is going more and more to the west.
Interesting to see NHC will save themselves from this.Probably they will say it will be a TS when it hits.
I feel a bit uneasy about New England based on the latest discussion from the NHC... Please have your stuff taken care of there. You all over NE should be making oreparations better to be safe than sorry. Prepare for the worst and hope for the best... Not saying it will hit you New England, but your odds are increasing exponentially....
2135. P451
Quoting laflastormtracker:
Additional banding wrapping around the west. Seems SW shear is not having much of an impact at present time.


Definitely doing much better this morning. I wonder if it will be enough to bump it back up to 135.

Very symmetrical now.


WV



FT



RGB

I just don't think people understand the amount of surge this thing is carrying. I hope the NHC, The Weather Channel, and other responsible national media organizations will get the word out well enough and emphasize the size comparable to water rise with these types of storms such as Bill.
Quoting P451:


We need everything we can get here in Jersey. Growing tired of the muggy weather. Here in central jersey the last few nights the storms died before they got to me here. Some nice wind 2 nights ago though.

Worse off is the air quality. It's pretty tough to breathe this stuff. We need a break!



Yeah, Central Park hadn't broken 90 at all this summer until August 19th; now we've had a whole week full of 90+ temps. Thunderstorms passed just to the north of me yesterday and Tuesday.
2138. IMA
Quoting AllStar17:


Which is very sad. Nova Scotia, Bermuda, Newfoundland, the East Coast, etc. are very much not out of the woods.


So many people are interested only if it might affect them. So many are only interested if it's going to make U.S. landfall. The rest of us are interested in the science of it and realize there are always people affected (shipping interests, other areas besides our own or the U.S., the people who are working their butts off trying to forecast, etc.).
Quoting CaneHunter031472:
I feel a bit uneasy about New England based on the latest discussion from the NHC... Please have your stuff taken care of there. You all over NE should be making oreparations better to be safe than sorry. Prepare for the worst and hope for the best... Not saying it will hit you New England, but your odds are increasing exponentially....
Wouldn't say quiet exponentially, but your odds of a strike are increasing. The best plan at this time, like CaneHunter said, would be to simply make sure you have the required amount of canned food, water, etc, and also make sure you have a place to stay inland if the storm does end up heading up that way. By the time Bill makes the northerly turn (wherever that may be) he will be moving very quickly, and there will limited time.
Quoting breald:



Where are they going to send Cantore if this wonder trough is going to keep this off shore? Maybe they will put him on a boat off the shore of Sable island...LOL.


I hope there really is a wonder trough to keep the storm way offshore. There was a graphic of the GFS model that showed a second storm catching up with Bill forming a super storm off Iceland and then heading for Great Britain. That is an awesome graphic. A few pages back.
Wave heights are projected to exceed 15 feet around Nantucket Island on the 23rd.

Quoting IMA:


So many people are interested only if it might affect them. So many are only interested if it's going to make U.S. landfall. The rest of us are interested in the science of it and realize there are always people affected (shipping interests, other areas besides our own or the U.S., the people who are working their butts off trying to forecast, etc.).


That is not just for storms but for everything in live.People just care if it has something to do with themselves.
Or some "care"only if it is seen by all the others.
And Bill is going WNW.
2143. NEwxguy
I've cleaned up my yard,secured a lot of items,so I feel pretty safe at this point,these storms are too unpredictable to wait for until the last moment.
Quoting apocalyps:


Actually,they are completely in the woods.
Bill is going more and more to the west.
Interesting to see NHC will save themselves from this.Probably they will say it will be a TS when it hits.


Uh....I said very much NOT out of the woods!
2129. KEEPEROFTHEGATE
Good morning, KOG

Are most folks in Canada taking this serious? Preparations under way, etc? Tidal surge will be high (run from the water)What would be the evacuation process - or will folks ride it out in their homes.

EDITED: high instead of hide
Quoting AllStar17:


Uh....I said very much NOT out of the woods!


So,would that not be"IN the woods"lol.
2147. P451
I think these African waves that have emerged bear watching as they head westward. Wave at about 25-30 W shows hints of circulation without any convection. If it can form convection, it may need to be watched.
2149. P451
Looking very healthy again this morning...
The non tasked mission was finding pressures at around 944 MB, I think we have a strengthening system.
Either Bill is undergoing EWRC or he just winked at me on the visible sat loop
Quoting NEwxguy:
I've cleaned up my yard,secured a lot of items,so I feel pretty safe at this point,these storms are too unpredictable to wait for until the last moment.


My prayers go with you NE residents and NS residents as well. Let me tell you by experience. Canned items will become Gold (can opener dont forget) Plenty of water, Gatorade, Batteries, And a weather radio could be a life saver as well. meds need to be refilled if needed. and a first aid kit with plenty of antibacterial stuff such as neosporin. I do not wish to cause panic. I just want people to be prepared. if this make a turn for the worst, please evacuate especially if you have kids or elderly people. Do not forget pets ok... This is for NE and NS as well....
2153. Sting13
Quoting KEHCharleston:
2129. KEEPEROFTHEGATE
Good morning, KOG

Are most folks in Canada taking this serious? Preparations under way, etc? Tidal surge will be hide (run from the water)What would be the evacuation process - or will folks ride it out in their homes.


Last night was the first real news report on it, stating hurricane prepairness, but no evacuation is planned, personally ill be putting plywood over the bigger windows in the house just incase.
Quoting P451:
Looking very healthy again this morning...


Indeed,no Mexican flu on Bill.
2155. Sting13
Quoting KEHCharleston:
2129. KEEPEROFTHEGATE
Good morning, KOG

Are most folks in Canada taking this serious? Preparations under way, etc? Tidal surge will be hide (run from the water)What would be the evacuation process - or will folks ride it out in their homes.


Last night was the first real news report on it, stating hurricane prepairness, but no evacuation is planned, personally ill be putting plywood over the bigger windows in the house just incase.
2156. P451




I wonder who TWC will send out to cover Bill. I know they probably won't, but it would be cool if they sent someone to Nova Scotia so we can see how bad the storm is there. They will probably send someone to Cape Cod, maybe Maine.
Quoting StormW:
THE CORRECTED CONSENSUS MODELS CALL FOR A MUCH
SHARPER EASTWARD TURN...KEEPING THE CENTER WELL AWAY FROM NEW
ENGLAND AND CANADA. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BETWEEN THESE EXTREMES
AND DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE IN BEST OVERALL
AGREEMENT WITH THE GFDL. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT BILL WILL
PROBABLY NOT TURN AS SHARPLY BETWEEN 72-96 HR AS IMPLIED BY THE
TRACK GRAPHIC...AND THUS IS LIKELY TO PASS CLOSER TO NEW ENGLAND
THAN THE GRAPHIC WOULD SUGGEST.


That would mean a much closer approach to the East Coast shoreline.
2160. P451
Quoting StormW:
THE CORRECTED CONSENSUS MODELS CALL FOR A MUCH
SHARPER EASTWARD TURN...KEEPING THE CENTER WELL AWAY FROM NEW
ENGLAND AND CANADA. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BETWEEN THESE EXTREMES
AND DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE IN BEST OVERALL
AGREEMENT WITH THE GFDL. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT BILL WILL
PROBABLY NOT TURN AS SHARPLY BETWEEN 72-96 HR AS IMPLIED BY THE
TRACK GRAPHIC...AND THUS IS LIKELY TO PASS CLOSER TO NEW ENGLAND
THAN THE GRAPHIC WOULD SUGGEST.


Good Morning, Storm. Looking forward to your analysis as usual. Thanks again for continuing it this year.
Quoting P451:






Certainly does not LOOK like it is strengthening. But the pressure is dropping.
2163. Ossqss
Bay of Fundy in Action



Big tides in the target area that Bill is pointing to.

Quote

The water level at high tide can be as much as 16 meters (52.5 feet) higher than at low tide.


Quoting IKE:


True. Looked at San Antonio's forecast....upper 90's to near 100 the next 7 days. Most of the cooler air will be east of there.

Calling for mid 60's here in the inland Florida panhandle for Saturday and Sunday night. High's near 90.
Good Morning Ike. I See that over night Bill has decided to take some gulps of dry air and has been on a 315* heading also been downgraded to Cat 3.
I still think that the recurve in the models and the forecast is too aggressive.
2166. P451
Quoting AllStar17:
I wonder who TWC will send out to cover Bill. I know they probably won't, but it would be cool if they sent someone to Nova Scotia so we can see how bad the storm is there. They will probably send someone to Cape Cod, maybe Maine.


Like with every hurricane that makes it to Nova Scotia you can count on the locals to get out there with their cameras and put it on youtube.

Link
Pretty well organized, wouldn't be surprised for it to bump back up to Category 4 at 11.
Quoting iluvjess:
I still think that the recurve in the models and the forecast is too aggressive.


Yes, even the NHC states that
Quoting P451:


Like with every hurricane that makes it to Nova Scotia you can count on the locals to get out there with their cameras and put it on youtube.

Link


That is true
2170. IMA
Quoting P451:


Good Morning, Storm. Looking forward to your analysis as usual. Thanks again for continuing it this year.


Yes, I keep meaning to say that! I was very glad to see you were with us this year, {{{StormW}}}}. I hope you and yours are doing well. TY so much for all you do.

Now, I have to run and will be having WU withdrawals while I'm gone! :) HAGD, y'all!
Good Morning everyone.....One thing i have noticed in the Water Vapor loop that i look at first thing is the Low that is to pick Bill up and out has flattend out and not coming much further south in the last few frames....Seems to be moving more in a near due East in the last few frames as it sorta is riding over the top of the High....It needs to keep coming which im sure it will but, its just an observation i think im seeing.
2172. P451
Quoting AllStar17:


Certainly does not LOOK like it is strengthening. But the pressure is dropping.


The structure is better than what we were watching late last evening so I wouldn't be surprised if this supports returning it to a 135 cat4 at 11am.

The recon did not find as high wind values this morning though despite the improved appearance. Last night we had 155mph flight winds on one barb. This morning...135 flight winds.

So given that I don't know if there is support for raising it back to Cat 4. Pressure and satellite presentation say it probably is 135 again though.
2173. ncstorm
Quoting AllStar17:


That would mean a much closer approach to the East Coast shoreline.


would this mean a brush with NC as well?
2174. breald
Quoting TropicTraveler:


I hope there really is a wonder trough to keep the storm way offshore. There was a graphic of the GFS model that showed a second storm catching up with Bill forming a super storm off Iceland and then heading for Great Britain. That is an awesome graphic. A few pages back.


I guess it is the the older England's turn to have a perfect storm.
Quoting Sting13:


Last night was the first real news report on it, stating hurricane prepairness, but no evacuation is planned, personally ill be putting plywood over the bigger windows in the house just incase.
Where are you located? Are you concerned about storm surge in your area?
If you are not already, your may wish to get on Orca's Google Earth list (wu-mail either him or zoomiami)
Glad to hear you are making preparations.
Quoting ncstorm:


would this mean a brush with NC as well?


Most likely, no.
2179. IKE
Quoting eyesontheweather:
Good Morning Ike. I See that over night Bill has decided to take some gulps of dry air and has been on a 315* heading also been downgraded to Cat 3.


Looks better in the last few frames.

It's going just east of the tropical forecast points again.

I see the trough edging down into northern Arkansas now.

Biggest threat areas to me...Bermuda...Canada.
Quoting canehater1:
Either Bill is undergoing EWRC or he just winked at me on the visible sat loop




Lol.. I was thinking the same thing..
2181. IKE
Quoting ncstorm:


would this mean a brush with NC as well?


It won't come close to NC...maybe 300 miles east of you.
can somebody post a pic of African Waves! Bloody Navy site is about 5 hours behind..again!!
Quoting IKE:


Looks better in the last few frames.

It's going just east of the tropical forecast points again.

I see the trough edging down into northern Arkansas now.

Biggest threat areas to me...Bermuda...Canada.
I have been wondering about possible higher than normal tides up in the NYC area as he goes by. That area is like a corner of a box.
Quoting NEwxguy:
I've cleaned up my yard,secured a lot of items,so I feel pretty safe at this point,these storms are too unpredictable to wait for until the last moment.
Make sure you cover your windows and cut down any overhanging branches off trees.
.
Halifax is NOT taking this serious at all. It's so annoying. One of our local weather reporters said this morning "It will swing right on pass, might clip Canso but it won't be anything to worry about"

I mean, I get the don't panic thing, but after Juan when no one was ready, they should be getting in peoples heads to be prepared at least.

I know I will be shitting bricks in my house Sunday!!
Quoting AllStar17:


Your graphics are excellent. I really appreciate them.
2188. IKE
Quoting Chiggy007:
can somebody post a pic of African Waves! Bloody Navy site is about 5 hours behind..again!!






Great photo - have been there and watched this - it's unbelievable. Can't imagine a storm surge on top of it.
2190. ncstorm
Thanks Ike!

but looking at the past model runs..it is shifting back to the left closer and closer to the shore line..thats why I ask..hopefully that wont be the case..
Quoting AllStar17:


You will definitely get higher tides as Bill goes by to the east.
Is there any data with educated predictions?
"It should be noted that Bill will
probably not turn as sharply between 72-96 hr as implied by the track graphic...and thus is likely to pass closer to New England than the graphic would suggest."

There it is! There's the out! Still have a few more days to prepare, but I keep thinking we'll turn it away from the Cape by shear FORCE OF WILL!

Turn Bill, take the bait, follow that trough... I can't miss any work, it's hard enough paying the mortgage as it is.....

And back at #735 or so we were discussing Cantore on Nantucket.
Quoting TropicTraveler:





Great photo - have been there and watched this - it's unbelievable. Can't imagine a storm surge on top of it.


I think I lost my car keys 30 feet from that same spot. Dropped them on the beach, tide came in so fast, no chance. Had to get a family member to drive 100km's to give me my other set.
2194. IKE
Quoting ncstorm:
Thanks Ike!

but looking at the past model runs..it is shifting back to the left closer and closer to the shore line..thats why I ask..hopefully that wont be the case..


Here's the 12Z model runs...looks like none of them have Bill going into New England with a direct hit.......look out Canada! Should be transitioning to extra-tropical by then...

Quoting rarepearldesign:
Halifax is NOT taking this serious at all. It's so annoying. One of our local weather reporters said this morning "It will swing right on pass, might clip Canso but it won't be anything to worry about"

I mean, I get the don't panic thing, but after Juan when no one was ready, they should be getting in peoples heads to be prepared at least.

I know I will be shitting bricks in my house Sunday!!

My wife is in NS. I'll be crapping bricks here in North Carolina Sunday too
2196. Ossqss
How do the ensembles look today?
Quoting IMA:


So many people are interested only if it might affect them. So many are only interested if it's going to make U.S. landfall. The rest of us are interested in the science of it and realize there are always people affected (shipping interests, other areas besides our own or the U.S., the people who are working their butts off trying to forecast, etc.).


Most, like myself, fall into the "I have a job and unless this thing is coming here, I better work category". The life and death decisions of others should be based on the forecast from the NHC and their local government. This is a place of hobby and should be treated as such.
Quoting IKE:


Here's the 12Z model runs...looks like none of them have Bill going into New England with a direct hit.......



NHC thinks the models are too aggressive with that turn according to their discussion.
2199. IKE
Quoting Ossqss:
How do the ensembles look today?


2201. ncstorm
okay..I was looking at the 06 runs! Whew..thanks for the clarification!
Quoting IKE:




RE: African Waves. As someone noted yesterday, if Bill does turn and miss everything he's set the Atlantic up as a prime birthing room for some great storms.

Also note: "Analyses
from CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin show that Bill has been
experiencing 10-15 kt of westerly vertical wind shear. This may be
starting to diminish...as the cirrus outflow is increasing in the
western semicircle.

The initial motion is 305/16."
2204. Ossqss
Quoting IKE:




This one Ike :)

Quoting AllStar17:




That's a heat low. it ain't gonna develop into something tropical.
2206. IKE
Quoting IKE:




Oops...wrong one...here it is...

Hurricane Watches up for Bermuda at 11:00. Bill's intensity is 105 kts. Soon to be over the warmest waters yet and the NHC states they see no reason why Bill won't continue to strengthen slowly in the near future.
Quoting IKE:


Finally the new photo is there...
How would Sable Island hold up to a direct hit by a cat 3 or 4 Bill?
IKE:

Thanks, but that image is at 05Z which is about 9 hours old.. :)
2214. Ossqss
2206 -- Uh, how do those model graphics initialize at 8am and get posted as 5am ??? Top left text in them. What is up with that? I must need more coffee !
Quoting Chiggy007:
IKE:

Thanks, but that image is at 05Z which is about 9 hours old.. :)

it says 8 am est which now is 10 est which only 2 hrs ago
Quoting IKE:


Here's the 12Z model runs...looks like none of them have Bill going into New England with a direct hit.......look out Canada! Should be transitioning to extra-tropical by then...



I'm sorry if this is a dumb question:

About where is the "cutoff" for extra-tropical? Or does it just depend on SSTs? Is there a latitude by which you can more-or-less say, "Okay, a tropical system that comes this far north is going to be extratropical by the time it passes XYZ point"?

(Thanks for all your great info. I'm still learning!)
Very bad weather coming to the Tennessee and Ohio Valley today........I mean some bad stuff!
fyi...There are many old and close ties between Charleston and Bermuda...depending, of course, on scope of damage and needs assessment, Portlight may be doing some work there...at this point, we don't know what...or even if...and we probably won't be waving the flag about it real hard...but I thought y'all would like to know it's possible...
Quoting BenInHouTX:
How would Sable Island hold up to a direct hit by a cat 3 or 4 Bill?
Not sure what you mean in your question of "Hold Up" Obviously it will depend on the strenght of the wind and the hieght of the surge. If those two things are low most everything should come through pretty well. if those two are high it could do much damage.
Hey guys.

Nobody special here, I'm just a guy who watches these things compusively, and I've noticed something that gives me the creeps about this storm scenario.

This storm is actually extremely close to where Andrew was as a TS in 1992, and on about the same heading. Now the atmosphere isn't the same right now, but there ARE some similarities.

If you look at the water vapor imagery (most recent I have is 13:15UTC,)At about 27N and 71W, there is what appears to be a counter- clockwise circulation which is drifting south-west. Just north-west of this is high pressure system.(at least its rotating roughly clockwise.) This "high" appears to be drifting east-southeast.

Then if you look at the red cool/dry air on the water vapor in the region of 65-70W, you notice that the hurricane and this dry air have weakened one another. The storm appears slightly weaker over-all compared to this time yesterday, but may have rebounded some in the past hour or two.

Anyway, the dry air appears weaker than it has been, so that the storm is about to punch through it over the next few hours, I think.

If you extrapolate the storm's motion in comparison to that "Low" and "high", it LOOKS like the hurricane will jog slightly north several hours from now, and then "squirt" between those systems, like paper through a press, to the west at a relatively high rate of speed.

I'm not a meteorologist, so I could be wrong. If so, somebody explain why?

I was more accurate on Katrina 3 days ahead of NWS or TWC, but I have been bad wrong at times too. Maybe this low is stronger than I think and kicks it out to sea instead?

Anyway, to see what I'm talking about, think of where the low will be say 12-24 hours from now, where the high will be, and where "Bill" will be at the same time. This APPEARS to be a scenario that is dangerously similar to Andrew.

Hopefully I'm wrong for both the Florida and gulf residents sake(I live in LA,) but having seen hurricanes cut figure-8s and other stuff in the same region this storm is entering, I'm not one to write these things off until the final advisory is issued.

Sorry this is so darn long.
RE: Storm surge - For my area, Cape Cod, I've heard 15 foot waves. This will greatly impact where I work and live. It could wipe out a lot of business, erode our beaches even more, scare the tourists away hurting our local economy even more, and have ecological implications we don't want to think about.

As the debate here RE: Wind towers out in the Sound, how would a storm like this affect them? How much damage to them and to the area around them?

My comment re: going to work was not meant to be flippant. I understand how a storm can effect people. Hopefully putting it on a personal level reminds us all what's at stake.
Quoting TampaSpin:
Very bad weather coming to the Tennessee and Ohio Valley today........I mean some bad stuff!


what kind of "bad stuff", that is where my family is...
Quoting violetprofusion:


I'm sorry if this is a dumb question:

About where is the "cutoff" for extra-tropical? Or does it just depend on SSTs? Is there a latitude by which you can more-or-less say, "Okay, a tropical system that comes this far north is going to be extratropical by the time it passes XYZ point"?

(Thanks for all your great info. I'm still learning!)


It has to do with the core (warm / cold) and other structural features, and not necessarily latitude. :)

Link
There is a very good site that gives good info on real time coastal observation and forecasts. Little bit of a learning curve, but very nice.

http://nowcoast.noaa.gov/


AGNT40 KWNM 201235
MIMATN
MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
830 AM EDT THU 20 AUG 2009
.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT
.WEATHER FOR NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN W OF 50W FROM 30N TO 50N.
WITH TRPCL STORM OR HURCN CONDITIONS ALREADY INCLUDED IN
APPROPRIATE OFSHR ZONES...MAIN TASK WITH THIS MORNINGS UPDATE
WILL BE WHETHER TO INCLUDE THE FAR E PART OF THE WRN HUDSON TO
BALT CNYN ZONE WITH ANY TRPCL STORM CONDITIONS. AND OF COURSE
THIS WILL BE BASED ON THE UPCOMING FORECAST TRACK OF BILL IN 15Z
TPC ADVISORY. IF TRACK OF BILL IS SHIFTED ANY FURTHER W WILL
LIKELY HAVE TO INCLUDE ABOVE MENTIONED ZONE. 06Z GFS IS TO THE
LEFT OF AT LEAST ITS PAST THREE PREVIOUS RUNS WITH THE TRACK...
AND TAKES BILL JUST W OF 70W AND THEN WITHIN 60-70 NM OF CAPE
COD EARLY SUN. GFS NOW IS IN LINE WITH 00Z CANADIAN AND W OF
UKMET/ECMWF.
MEANWHILE...WEAK COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED OFSHR INTO GLF OF ME AND
JUST S OF LONG ISLAND...BUT SHUD STALL THIS AFTERNOON AND LIFT N
AND BACK INLAND AS WARM FRONT TNGT. AND OVER NEXT 36HRS OR SO
PREVAILING S TO SW FLOW 15 KT OR LESS WILL DOMINATE OFSHR
WATERS...UNTIL THE ARRIVAL OF HURCN BILL.
LONG PERIOD SWELL...3 FT AT 16 SEC...ASSOICATED WITH GILL
APPEARS TO HAVE ARRIVED AT NOAA BUOY 41048...LOCATED ABOUT 250
NM W OF BERMUDA. EVEN GFDL BASED WAVEWATCH III IS ABOUT 12HRS
TOO SLOW WITH THIS SWELL TRAIN AS IT DOES NOT BRING LONGER
PERIOD TO THAT AREA UNTIL EARLY TNGT. BASED ON THIS MAY HAVE TO
MAKE SOME TIMING ADJUSTMENTS OVER OFSHR WATERS. NOT PLANNING ON
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO PREVIOUSLY FORECAST SIG WV HGTS
ASSOCIATED WITH BILL.
Link

NAEFS (North American Ensemble Forecast System)

forecast meteograms for Halifax, NS.

the Public forecast: "Rain. Windy".

We tell a lot less than we know...

My Northeast Waves forecast as Bill progresses:




Quoting eyesontheweather:
Not sure what you mean in your question of "Hold Up" Obviously it will depend on the strenght of the wind and the hieght of the surge. If those two things are low most everything should come through pretty well. if those two are high it could do much damage.


There isn't much on Sable Island except for a few Weather Canada guys and about 300 horses. Its basically a sandbar.
NOTE THAT WARNINGS BELOW MAY CHANGE BASED ON LATEST BULLETIN
FROM TPC.
.WARNINGS/FORECAST CONFIDENCE...WARNINGS ARE PRELIMINARY AND ARE
SUBJECT TO CHANGE. ANY CHANGES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS
12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE.
.NT1 NEW ENGLAND WATERS...
.GULF OF MAINE...T.S. SUN FAR SE PORTION.
.GEORGES BANK...HURCN SUN SE PORTION.
.S OF NEW ENGLAND...T.S. LATE SAT INTO SUN E PORTION.
.NT2 MID ATLC WATERS...
.HUDSON TO BALT CNYN...NONE.
.BALT CNYN TO HAGUE LINE...HURCN LATE SAT AND SUN E PORTION.
.BALT CNYN TO HATTERAS CNYN...T.S. SAT INTO SUN E PORTION.
.HATTERAS CNYN TO CAPE FEAR...T.S. SAT E PORTION.
.CAPE FEAR TO 31N...NONE.
.FORECASTER CLARK/PROSISE. OCEAN FORECAST BRANCH.


2233. breald
Quoting lovesdanger:
klaat is think you are going to get more then storm surge you will probably get the brunt of the storm i would start to batten down the hatches ...it should be fun for you guys to experience..


We've already experienced hurricanes.
A Very severe Outbreak could happen in the areas you see in PINK and Red....





Cape for Little Rock Arkansas......sheeshhh

@2220, look at the broad water vapor imagery for the US. Also look at the jet stream map from wundergrounds main page. These will show you the major feature that is going to steer this hurricane.

In short, there is a 99.999999% certainty this thing will not even approach florida.
Quoting DestinJeff:
can really see the trough coming down/east ... low pressure center over MN seems to have reached southernmost extent of travel and now headed back northeast.

also, how do the apparent ULL east of Bahamas and North of Bermuda come into play?



Yes,lovely, you really can see it. But I can also see the possibility of a, (gosh I hate this word), "stall", then instead of swooping away and missing everything, Bill gets pulled up and hits something a little bit stronger than what we'd like to see. I've seen that scenario happen as well. Still to early to tell. How far West he goes, how long he stalls for, and the speed and location of the Northern influence will all be interesting to watch.
Quoting PcolaDan:
There is a very good site that gives good info on real time coastal observation and forecasts. Little bit of a learning curve, but very nice.

http://nowcoast.noaa.gov/
Thanks.. I had forgotten about that site, and had not bookmarked it. Much appreciated.
Quoting AllStar17:
My Northeast Waves forecast as Bill progresses:


I'm not really getting what information you're trying to share with the graphics...

It just seems boolean (as in true/false) versus wave heights or anything else...

Not to pick on it... :(
Quoting breald:


We've already experienced hurricanes.


Not fun. I went through Bob. Bob was 18 years ago yesterday and today. Happy Anniversary Bob! You're cousin Bill's coming to celebrate!

Also, following October 31 was Halloween Storm aka The Perfect Storm.

Neither one fun.

We get so many N'orEasters that seem much worse than the usual blows of dying hurricanes that come through here, but Bob scared me. So far Bill only worries me.

Yesterday someone here helped put Cape Cod's weather into perspective. It's it's own special micro-climate. Anything can happen, and too often it does.
Watcher123: Hurricanes modify the environment that they move through. For example, Bill is building an upper ridge to its NW by pumping warm air aloft out ahead of it and increasing the "thickness" of the atmosphere in its path. This forces the ULL to its West to move to the the south. So its not really "squeezing" between static systems; its creating a dynamic environment that changes the slope of the atmosphere it its vicinity.
2243. jpsb
Quoting StormW:
Hmmm, bill goes under the high instead of over it huh? hmmmm.
Quoting TampaSpin:
A Very severe Outbreak could happen in the areas you see in PINK and Red....





Cape for Little Rock Arkansas......sheeshhh



Seriously, we've been in a world of hurt in Tulsa. I'm glad we didn't have tornados from our Tornado Watch last night. But we had strobe lightning. It was like being in a night club for 2 hours last night. Amazing and disturbing. I've been in some 60 strike a minute weather. And this was like 3 a second for a while. And watching the huge anvils on these small state sized cells were inspiring as the just seemed to pulse with electricity.
Quoting StormW:


Basically, when the SST's start to fall below 26C. A storm will begin to transition to Extra-Tropical when it hits cooler SST's, and becomes more involved with the westerlies (turn to the NE). When this happens, it begins to interact more with the features of the trof/front, and becomes influenced by a more baroclininc process, meaning it derives its energy from tempertaure and preesure gradient differences in the atmosphere. A pure tropical system depends on even distibrution of temperature, moisture, and such, not being invloved with any frontal characterisitics. When a sysem turns extratropical, it is the varying gradients that help sustain it...like a Nor'easter. When this occurs, you should see the wind field expand, and the strongest maximum winds will be well away from the center.


Isn't his answer so much more sexy? :)
2246. breald
Quoting klaatuborada:


Not fun. I went through Bob. Bob was 18 years ago yesterday and today. Happy Anniversary Bob! You're cousin Bill's coming to celebrate!

Also, following October 31 was Halloween Storm aka The Perfect Storm.

Neither one fun.

We get so many N'orEasters that seem much worse than the usual blows of dying hurricanes that come through here, but Bob scared me. So far Bill only worries me.

Yesterday someone here helped put Cape Cod's weather into perspective. It's it's own special micro-climate. Anything can happen, and too often it does.


I remember Bob and Gloria was in 1985.

I know what you mean about the climate. It can be 85 one day and 65 the next.
Quoting klaatuborada:



Yes,lovely, you really can see it. But I can also see the possibility of a, (gosh I hate this word), "stall", then instead of swooping away and missing everything, Bill gets pulled up and hits something a little bit stronger than what we'd like to see. I've seen that scenario happen as well. Still to early to tell. How far West he goes, how long he stalls for, and the speed and location of the Northern influence will all be interesting to watch.
you notice on the nhc discussion that they corrected the models so bill will turn more sharply ne. why did they correct the models and they do not show the ensemble models at all on bill's homesite.
Quoting HopquickSteve:


I'm not really getting what information you're trying to share with the graphics...

It just seems boolean (as in true/false) versus wave heights or anything else...

Not to pick on it... :(


The point of it is to show who will be experiencing LARGE waves at different points in Bills path. Such as, when Bill is approaching from the southeast, The narrow channel north of Long Island will not experience big waves.
Quoting rwdobson:
@2220, look at the broad water vapor imagery for the US. Also look at the jet stream map from wundergrounds main page. These will show you the major feature that is going to steer this hurricane.

In short, there is a 99.999999% certainty this thing will not even approach florida.
LOL, That is what you call goin right to the edge when you just can't make those finges type 100. j/k
2251. BGMom
It seems that the activity here has died down a bit as everyone exhales - hopefully Bill is going to cooperate.

Is it ok for me to ask a question about another hurricane?

I was in Atlanta during Hurricane Opal. I know that the actual hurricane was no where near - we are so far inland. But I do remember chaise lounges flying up into the sky and hitting the side of the apartment building - power outages for 5 days! I remember it was related to Opal.

I realize this has nothing to do with Bill. I am just trying to educate myself a little more on weather - the whys and the hows.

Can anyone tell me the path Opal took that led up to us? I guess it came up from the Gulf? It seems like a long time ago - I've forgotten.

Thanks!
Quoting eyesontheweather:
Not sure what you mean in your question of "Hold Up" Obviously it will depend on the strenght of the wind and the hieght of the surge. If those two things are low most everything should come through pretty well. if those two are high it could do much damage.

Thanks. Originally being from horse country in Kentucky, I was asking due to the presence of all of the feral horses there and wondering if there would be a way for them to survive high winds and surge.
Quoting rwdobson:
@2220, look at the broad water vapor imagery for the US. Also look at the jet stream map from wundergrounds main page. These will show you the major feature that is going to steer this hurricane.

In short, there is a 99.999999% certainty this thing will not even approach florida.
he is nervous. we all know it is not going to hit florida, but it will be close, so the what ifs start. not much time if it does. so pardon all the east coast floridians if they get nervous.
Quoting AllStar17:


The point of it is to show who will be experiencing LARGE waves at different points in Bills path. Such as, when Bill is approaching from the southeast, The narrow channel north of Long Island will not experience big waves.
I am more interested to know the hieght of the above normal tide. the actual tide surge if any in the area of NYC.
Quoting breald:


I remember Bob and Gloria was in 1985.

I know what you mean about the climate. It can be 85 one day and 65 the next.


Yes! and it can be raining here and over the bridge, 20 miles away it can be beautiful, or raining on the mainland and beautiful here. We can be buried in 5 feet of snow and there's not a speck 20 miles to the West on the mainland, and vice versa. Weather patterns this year, lots of rain, but not predicted. Predicted rain and T-storms have gone to our West and scooted North, or dried out before getting here. That's Dried not Died as you can see the storm disipate as it nears...the bridge! Hah! But trend seems to be sending things more West than predicted. Same as Bill.
Quoting BGMom:
It seems that the activity here has died down a bit as everyone exhales - hopefully Bill is going to cooperate.

Is it ok for me to ask a question about another hurricane?

I was in Atlanta during Hurricane Opal. I know that the actual hurricane was no where near - we are so far inland. But I do remember chaise lounges flying up into the sky and hitting the side of the apartment building - power outages for 5 days! I remember it was related to Opal.

I realize this has nothing to do with Bill. I am just trying to educate myself a little more on weather - the whys and the hows.

Can anyone tell me the path Opal took that led up to us? I guess it came up from the Gulf? It seems like a long time ago - I've forgotten.

Thanks!




Opal remained a hurricane for nearly 12 hours after landfall, its rapid forward speed propelling it the entire length of Alabama before being downgraded to a tropical storm as it crossed into Tennessee.
Ok, up to lastnight alot of people thought that Bill will make landfall in Boston as a CAT 2 or 3. Is that still a possibility? or that theory out?
I wouldn't mind see Bill blow the RED SOX away just a little.....LOL
2259. jpsb
Quoting klaatuborada:


Yes! and it can be raining here and over the bridge, 20 miles away it can be beautiful, or raining on the mainland and beautiful here. We can be buried in 5 feet of snow and there's not a speck 20 miles to the West on the mainland, and vice versa. Weather patterns this year, lots of rain, but not predicted. Predicted rain and T-storms have gone to our West and scooted North, or dried out before getting here. That's Dried not Died as you can see the storm disapate as it nears...the bridge! Hah! But trend seems to be sending things more West than predicted. Same as Bill.
Come to Texas, it can be raining cats and dogs right one one side of a street and sunny on the other, and our temps can go from 80 to 40 in a few hours. Happily we don't get 5 feet of snow, but 3 feet of rain is not alot of fun either.
Can everyone that post a pic please use a maximum of 650 width....Please. If you don't it streches the blog width.
Tampa ive been waiting for you to make that comment for 3 days now!! Morning
Quoting TampaSpin:
Can everyone that post a pic please use a maximum of 650 width....Please. If you don't it streches the blog width.


is that me tampa? sorry i use FF so i dont realize when it stretches
There is a new blog up!
Quoting rareaire:
Tampa ive been waiting for you to make that comment for 3 days now!! Morning


Its been hard to control myself.....LOL
Have a pretty heavy thunderstorm here in Braithwaite, LA right now. Lots of lightning and heavy rain.
Another note on Cape weather - when Solar cycles are low we get lots of rain. 1991 was a very active solar cycle and we got Bob and PS, perhaps Bill will miss because we are in such a low cycle.
Quoting DestinJeff:
Here you can see the frontal boudary with associated convection out in front of it of MO, with a weakness out in front over the OH valley. Low pressure centered over MN, and has reached southernmost travel. The trof extends down to the Red River and east as far as western TN/KY.

*there is also an exceptionally large Space Fly on the satellite lens



Re: space fly, isn't that a shuttle craft?
Quoting KEHCharleston:


Please make it so, amen.

Even little wobble West, and I think we'll still be ok. Won't be a good weekend though, but the following week will be glorious!
New Blog
11 am Update:



My 11 am Projected Path:
Quoting BenInHouTX:
How would Sable Island hold up to a direct hit by a cat 3 or 4 Bill?

I think Sable Island has held up to storms for a very long time. It's the sailing ships around it that had such a hard time.