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Bill Gray's latest hurricane season forecast

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:15 PM GMT on May 31, 2006

The latest 2006 Atlantic hurricane season forecast from the forecast team at Colorado State University (CSU) was issued today. Phil Klotzbach and Dr. Bill Gray's forecast is unchanged from their earlier April 4 and December 6 forecasts, predicting 17 named storms (10 is average), nine hurricanes (six is average), and five intense hurricanes (2.3 is average). This is the highest level of activity they have forecast in their 23 years of making these predictions. They put the odds of a major (Category 3-4-5) hurricane crossing the U.S. coast at 82% (average for last century is 52%). The U.S. East Coast (including Florida) has a 69% chance of a major hurricane strike (31% is average), and the Gulf Coast, 38% (30% is average). In addition, there is an above-average risk of major hurricanes in the Caribbean.

The CSU team identified four years that had similar weather patterns in May compared to this year, and all four of these years had much above levels of hurricane activity: 2004 (six major hurricanes, three of which made landfall in the U.S.), 2001 (no hurricanes made landfall in the U.S., but there were two major hurricanes); 1996 (six major hurricanes, one of which hit the U.S.--Fran); and 1961 (seven major hurricanes, one of which hit the U.S.--Carla).

What the other hurricane forecasting groups are predicting for 2006:
NOAA forecast issued May 22, 2006:

13-16 named storms
8-10 hurricanes
4-6 intense hurricanes

Cuba's National Weather Institute prediction from May 2, 2006:

15 named storms
9 hurricanes

Tropical Storm Risk, Inc. May 5, 2006 forecast:

15 named storms
8 hurricanes

The CSU forecasters cite three main reasons to expect a very busy season:

1) Weaker trade winds than usual have led to anomalous warming of the tropical Atlantic since the early part of April. Sea surface temperatures remain much warmer than average, and are expected to be much warmer than average during the August-October peak of hurricane season.

2) No El Nio is expected to be present during August-October 2006. When the tropical Atlantic is warm, and no El Nio is present, Atlantic basin hurricane activity is greatly enhanced.

3) We continue to be in the positive phase of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), the decades-long cycle of natural hurricane activity.

The next forecast from the CSU group will be issued August 3.

Tomorrow--June 1--marks the beginning of hurricane season. I'll have a look at what we can expect for the month of June.

Jeff Masters




The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Welcome to the 2006 Atlantic hurricane season. T-minus 12 hours, 47 minutes.

Good luck to all.
Thanks Dr. M. Will look forward to your forecast.
it would be funny if we had 5 storms this year
It would be cool if turtle's turtles will scare them off to Greenland...LOL
This years gonna be another beast and we all know it.
Wow, I didn't think they'd come out with a probability quite that high of an East Coast strike...
I suspect that analog yrs are similar but that many small variables may be quite different......that's why last yr they "missed" the factors that gave us the incredible yr we had(they forecasted a much lower number than 28)....It's very complicated...
(checking for monsters under the bed...)
Know They're Coming.
FootPrints Everywhere. LOL
the "turtle effect" - now that would be truly excellent!
I think its strange how Tampa somehow each year gets bailed out of a direct hit in the last few hours before landfall....I mean the bay should just be so inviting for any hurricane but yet one never comes through...I guess I'm just sick of throwing hurricane parties and then being denied of major action...
2001(no US landfalls) would be completely wonderful.
Just keep throwing parties Jughead and be very, very thankful that all you have the next morning is a whopper hangover.
Jughead, you need to be thankful, trust me on this! Savannah, hope they don't hit you, but I for one, am ready for them to leave the gulf coast!!!!
Have seen Dr Masters previous blogs on global warming and where it was often said by many that the US Government was not taking global warming seriously?

Well - FAA is. They are including global warming in their latest weather classes - here is a bit of the ad for the weather class.

"Course Title: (FAA04038) SO ID#6378 - Understanding Weather and Weather-Related Aviation Hazards "

Description: This 3-hour non-technical class will provide an understanding of basic weather and how weather affects aviation. Specifically, the class will discuss and examine the following:
The concepts of cloud formation
Global warming and its affect on weather
How thunderstorms develop and the aviation hazards they cause
How non-thunderstorm-related weather hazards affect aviation
Weather forecasts

Instructional Methods: Traditional classroom setting with instructor presentations and question and answer sessions.


Learning Objectives: Upon completing the course, participants will be able to:

Understand how clouds are formed;
Realize the impact of global warming on weather;
Recognize the different types of weather caused by surface fronts, jet streams, and other conditions;
Comprehend how and why thunderstorms form and identify the different types;
Recognize thunderstorm-related aviation weather hazards ;
Examine non-thunderstorm-related aviation weather hazards; and
Understand the different types of National Weather Service aviation forecasts.

as the alternative really sucks(sorry, blog police)
hear, hear swlaaggie! The blog police, I'm sure, understands!!!
Wow. Global warming topic included in a flight safety course kind of sticks out like a sore thumb. That's interesting in a socio-political kind of way.
I am thankful, but to have the ability to fully document a hurricane without having to travel very far is enticing!
that t-minus time is off, because the hurricane season starts on june 1, gmt.
Welcome to the 2006 Atlantic hurricane season
21. Alec
This is like countdown to the new yr!LOL We got 12hrs and 13minutes left till June 1!
If global warming due to greenhouse gases is causing storms to intensify more rapidly than we've seen before (and it is my belief that it is), then it is valid material for a flight safety course.
: Alec hpw the 90.9 sea temps doing today??
: Alec ooops sorry i ment to say how
Don't know about the rest of you folks but I intend to, at t=0 of the 2006 hurricane season, grab a beer, take off all my clothes, slap on some war paint, and perform some anti-hurricane voo-dooish war dance out by my pool.

Please, for the sake of my reputation and the sanity of my neighbors, tell me that this kick-off will occur after it is dark in SW La.
26. IKE
"that t-minus time is off, because the hurricane season starts on june 1, gmt."...

Oops...my bad.
May 31st 2006
Array_B

May 31st 2003
Array_B

"Weaker trade winds have led to anomalous warming of the tropical Atlantic since the early part of April"

Yeah weaker trade winds that's it! ;) Not greenhouse effect or global warming. No,those are alarmists terms.

I just can't wait for guy's like Bill Gray and Jeff Masters to finnally get totally on board the obvious train.
Those images have different color scales, 53rd.


2006 link

2003 Link

If you want to check the scales or any other pints to verify these images show exactally the same data only 3 years seperated
Oh they do do they

Array_B

Array_B
The 2006 scale shows 1C-27C, the 2003 shows 1C-29C, so its not an accurate comparison.
I have maybe a dumb question, but here goes. I have heard alot of the weather guys talking about the Bermuda high steering the hurricanes. We all know which direction they were steered last year. Does anyone know about where the high is expected to be during this hurricane season or is it to early to know? I am in the panhandle of Fl. and wondering about the storms comming into the gulf.
I hate to interrupt you guys during this great forum, but I made a comment just before Jeff Master's updated us with todays. Would anybody like to read it and comment or slam me in regards to it? Once again, I don't mean to scare anyone. I'm just thinking that this could be a very hurricane-rich 2006. Please be careful out there when the storms do come. No deaths should be first and foremost goal this hurricane season. Please post.
34. IKE
I'm in the Florida panhandle....Defuniak Springs, Fl...Opal country
I'm neither pro or anti greenhouse gas induced global warming. But with all due respect, those two prints represent a the tiniest sliver of data from both geographical and chronological standpoints. I'm hoping that you weren't trying to get me(i.e. and other fence riders) off the fence using just these two shots.
sand, it's a good question. i've been hearing people speculate the high will be further east, making the east coast more vulnerable and the gulf less so. not sure what people are basing this on, though...
I think its strange how Tampa somehow each year gets bailed out of a direct hit in the last few hours before landfall....I mean the bay should just be so inviting for any hurricane but yet one never comes through...I guess I'm just sick of throwing hurricane parties and then being denied of major action...

ah, perhaps you're on to something! there's a notion in geophysics, namely in earthquake prediction, of a Mogi donut. the idea is that in a seismic area, if epicenters are plotted and there's a region which has a comparatively lower density of epicenters, the middle of that is where you should predict the next earthquake.

this is not the same as something my Dad called "Reirick statistics" after a colleague who believed that if you were flipping a fair coin and it came up heads forty times in a row, the odds of it coming up tails the forty-first time were higher than 50%.

i know this stuff can be confusing. there's another idea in statistics called "regression to the mean" which applies to, e.g., normally distributed events. the idea is that if, say, you are tall, your spouse is tall, and your parents are all average-sized, the odds are greater your kids will be average-sized than tall.

so, maybe Tampa's in for it.

I think its strange how Tampa somehow each year gets bailed out of a direct hit in the last few hours before landfall....I mean the bay should just be so inviting for any hurricane but yet one never comes through...I guess I'm just sick of throwing hurricane parties and then being denied of major action...

Or equivalently,

Watch what you ask for, for you will surely get it.
oh no when the 1st North Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook of the hurricne year be update?
If you look at the shape of the Fl peninsula and the gulf, you can kind of see why Tampa doesn't generally get direct hits. A storm has to come into the gulf and make a pretty sharp turn to give Tampa a direct hit.

On the Atlantic side, Jacksonville and Savannah are both in areas that seem to be protected by coastal geometry also...a lot of storms give Jax rain while heading straight north in the Atlantic.
Well, I'll definatley have my film gear ready to go this year in case we, "get it"
usually the only way that a hurricane will curve back towards Tampa is if there is a front or high pressusre that pushes it back towards the east.
JeffMasters mail for you i no you are on her keeping a eye on us LOL so e mail me when you get a ch
Hi guys, still lurking here! I don't post often, but read every day. I just saw something that I thought was interesting, to say the least- there are apparently protestors demanding the resignation of the director of the hurricane center, claiming that NOAA and the NHC are 'covering up' evidence that global warming is increasing hurricane strength and the number of storms.
Link
:hi SpyRI welcome
Regarding Tampa
There was one year Tampa got hit twice: 1848

1848 Tampa Hurricane
LOL SpyRI.

It's all becoming pretty clear now.

That's exactly why the FAA is putting Global Warming topics smack in the middle of a "what the heck should a pilot do in a thunderstorm" class. The head of the FAA either really likes his job or he has no guts.
1848...and how many major hurricanes have hit Miami since then? The Fl panhandle? Tampa still seems like a relatively safe place.
yep, thats what I've been saying...the weather patterns have to be perfect to hit the bay! Even the hurricane path of 1848 was a little north of the bay!
"A 37-hour demonstration will follow, lasting until midnight on June 1st, with picketing during the day and a candlelight vigil by night."
I wonder if any of the 'news' stations will actually cover this? I'd kind of like to see who these people are, and what they have to say. I found an article about this group, the U.S. Climate Emergency Council, and this is part of their statement.
"Meanwhile, just since August 2005, no fewer than four major scientific studies one conducted by NOAA itself have shown that warmer sea-surface temperatures created by atmospheric warming are increasing the frequency, power, and lifespan of major, Category 4 and 5 hurricanes. Yet there is no mention of these studies at the National Hurricane Center web site despite the agencys official mission to save lives, mitigate property loss, and improve economic efficiency by issuing the best watches, warnings, forecasts and analyses of hazardous tropical weather, and by increasing understanding of these hazards. And NHC director Max Mayfield denied any substantive connection between global warming and hurricanes before a US Senate panel last fall.

Meanwhile at NOAA, The Washington Post and other media have documented the ongoing campaign to cover up global warming data. Under the directorship of Bushs friend and political appointee, Vice Admiral Conrad C. Lautenbacher Jr., NOAA climate scientists are being intimidated from talking to the press and their papers are being withheld from publication."
Pretty serious claims! Oh, man, some days the whole world just seems fubar.


The last significant hurricane to hit Tampa was in 1921 which was a high Cat. 2 when it made landfall near Tarpon Springs. The storm had been a Cat. 4 but weakened before making landfall. Even so, it created a 10 or 12 feet tide in the Bay.

Tampa has dodged the bullet for some time now!
I was in Tampa at my dad's when Frances stalled west of Tampa after going out over the gulf...even the tropical storm force winds were pretty nasty...and it forced enough water into the bay to close Bayshore...
yep, thats the one concern about the landfall of a hurricane in Tampa Bay is that the sea floor depth is very small, which will cause large tidal heights!
Tampa has dodged the bullet for some time now!

see, the purrrfect Mogi donut.
Uh oh. Dr. Gray is a skeptic about catastrophic global warming and a non-believer about a CO2 / hurricane link.

We'll likely start seeing him characterized on this blog as an old fogey, out of touch, senile, satan worshiper and on the payroll of Exxon.
SpyRI,

I'm no NHC mission expert but I don't see global warming issues(pro or anti) as being part of the NHC scope of work. NOAA maybe but not the NHC.

I also don't know what else Mr. Mayfield could have said to that panel other than to offer additonial opinion engineering.

IMHO, I think they are picking on the wrong people and I don't really know who the right people are.

I 100% agree. FUBAR.
They had to throw 2004 on the list, sheesh!
Thanks SpyRI, what a hair-raising and bone-headed initiative. Have these people lost their heads? This is possibly one of the most counter-productive environmental initiatives I've ever seen.

Please note that I am firmly convinced that greenhouse gas emissions are contributing to global warming with much more to come, and that I also believe the recent spike in cat4/Cat5 hurricanes is related to humankind's greenhouse gas emissions.

That having been said, I have no understanding for the planned protests, which will politicize the scientific process and which make shameless use of Katrina survivors to inject emotion into a discussion where it will be counterproductive.

I work on environmental issues every day of my working life, and approaching media and publicly protesting should be actions of the LAST resort - to be tried only when all else has failed. Too many environmental groups (these folks included) are running to the media even before they have done their research and established the science behind their arguments. They give the rest of us who are trying hard to alert people to issues of environmental concern a bad name by association.

I feel truly sorry for the folks at NOAA/NHC.

Dr. Masters, I'd very much appreciate comment or a post from you on this topic.

61. F5
sandnjayfl,

Hurricanechaser had a nice writeup in one of his previous blogs specifically about the Bermuda high. You might want to read his blog entry about that. As others also mentioned it tends to shift in location and intensity both year to year as well as during the year. Depending on intensity and location, it has a great effect on determining the overall track of tropical systems as they approach the US both in the Gulf as well as the Atlantic. However, it is not the only steering mechanism. Usually, as storms approach the US, there is almost always an upper level trough coming through which also impacts the storm's direction. This is often why we see changes in direction as landfall approaches. The troughs can impinge upon the Bermuda High and weaken/change shape/location which ultimately affects the final path. My personal opinion, FWIW, is that the east coast of the US is in greater danger this year due to the forecasted position/strength of the Bermuda High. Recently released forecasts have strengthened my opinion in that regard, but until we have some systems in play, we won't know for sure.
Guys, is there any chance of something forming off the Texas coast, seems like a lot of convection right now
Here's what looks to be the main text of their media release:

******

An Open Letter: It's Time for Truth Telling
About Hurricanes and Global Warming

We are here on the day before the beginning of the hurricane season to denounce the Bush Administrations cover-up of the growing scientific link between monstrous hurricanes and human-induced global warming.

Despite a flurry of peer-reviewed scientific studies linking planetary warming to storms like Katrina, leaders at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the National Hurricane Center (a subset of NOAA) continue to claim with no supporting data -- that the recent hurricane devastation is part of a natural cycle having nothing to do with a buildup of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. We condemn these responses as an abdication of government responsibility when millions of Americans are increasingly vulnerable to violent storms in a warmer world.

After a record four major hurricanes hit Florida in 2004, the 2005 hurricane season was even more devastating. Of the six most powerful hurricanes ever to hit the United States in the past 150 years, three occurred within 52 days in 2005. These were Katrina, Rita, and Wilma. The damage from Katrina alone was over 1,500 dead, two million Americans displaced, and at least $200 billion in damages.

Meanwhile, just since August 2005, no fewer than four major scientific studies one conducted by NOAA itself have shown that warmer sea-surface temperatures created by atmospheric warming are increasing the frequency, power, and lifespan of major, Category 4 and 5 hurricanes. Yet there is no mention of these studies at the National Hurricane Center web site despite the agencys official mission to save lives, mitigate property loss, and improve economic efficiency by issuing the best watches, warnings, forecasts and analyses of hazardous tropical weather, and by increasing understanding of these hazards. And NHC director Max Mayfield denied any substantive connection between global warming and hurricanes before a US Senate panel last fall.

Meanwhile at NOAA, The Washington Post and other media have documented the ongoing campaign to cover up global warming data. Under the directorship of Bushs friend and political appointee, Vice Admiral Conrad C. Lautenbacher Jr., NOAA climate scientists are being intimidated from talking to the press and their papers are being withheld from publication.

These actions at NOAA and the NHC are part of an obvious political campaign orchestrated by the White House to avoid the serious cuts in fossil fuel use scientists say are needed to fight global warming. But by ignoring the science and denying the warming on behalf of Exxon Mobil and other major oil corporations, the Bush Administration is putting millions more Americans this year and for years to come at great risk for experiencing the kind of suffering and loss seen throughout the Gulf Coast in 2005.

The cover-up must stop now!


Endorsed by (list in formation):

U.S. Climate Emergency Council

******

- followed by a list of other shameless agitators..
RE Texas
There is an upper level trough over the NW Gulf with an uppler low near 27N86W. This is what is causing most of that activity.
...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
A SHARP NARROW UPPER TROUGH IS IN THE NW GULF WITH AN UPPER LOW
FORMING NEAR 27N86W. AN AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE LIES JUST E OF THE
TROUGH COVERING THE CENTRAL AND E GULF. A PLUME OF MOISTURE IS
ADVECTED OUT OF THE EPAC STREAMING NWD ACROSS THE GULF BETWEEN
88W-95W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS
SWATH OF MOISTURE...MOST ORGANIZED IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WHERE
A WEAK SFC REFLECTION AS A TROUGH HAS DEVELOPED. MORE IMPRESSIVE
ACTIVITY HAS FORMED NEAR THE UPPER LOW N OF 26N W OF 95W.
DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS...SOME OF
THEM STRONG TO SEVERE...IN S TEXAS AND THE COASTAL WATERS.
i don't see the point of protest. and i'm beginning not to care whether or not some officials or experts agree with there being connections between warming and hurricanes, anthropogenic activities, and sea level rise. the evidence will be here soon enough.

what i am concerned with is that people and the government are ill-prepared to deal with the consequences, those being severe and expensive.

has anything thought about what would happen if anthropogenic contributions were zeroed? probably nothing, not at least initially.

so, the point is to accept warming is real, and to prepare, at a national level. that requires a strong federal involvement and federal knocking of heads together to get the good of the country ahead of the parochials.

the other option, of course, and probably better, is to address the problem at an international level, at the UN, but promising to follow their determination. ha!! that has a fat chance of happening!
Yea Snowboy, I agree. That was productive(wiping sarcasm off shirt now).

I won't even get started on why the Katrina numbers were so bad but the NHC was not responsible for that. We lost one person to Rita. NHC did a dang good job. I won't speak for Wilma because I was too busy cleaning up all my scattered stuff when she hit. I just know my eyebrows didn't get peeled back by either the damage or deaths. The NHC must have done something right that time as well.

Again, I'm neither pro or anti greenhouse gas global warming but this was not a good day for the pro folks.
Guys I am worried about the system off Texas. It is trying to develop into a TD believe me. Banding is forming, it is rotating very good, and the circulation is almost to the surface. The low is almost closed and thunderstorms are firing. Just look at the visible sat loops! See the rotation and banding? Check out the radar as well. Looks threatening to me. I am shocked the NHC hasn't put out a statement on it.
If this thing stays over water through tonight, we could be in for a tropical depression. This system is sneaking up on us. It is developing despite the shear.
Seth Borenstein has some good info for us, in case you all think this global warming thing may do harm.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20060531/ap_on_sc/hot_arctic
I predict we will have some hurricanes this year...some will be major and some not so big, some will hit the US and some will not...all will have a name somewhere between A and Z and maybe even a couple with Greek letters...all will have our undivided attention!
Look! The shear is weakening significantly over the disturbance! Link
Levi32,

That sucker needs to move away from Houston which got 10-16 inches of rain this past weekend. However, if she moves east of Houston or west of Houston, she will be most welcome as most of us need the rain....and lots of it.

Any idea where she is forecast to head? Please don't say Houston as there were a bunch of cars underwater there this past weekend.
It is supposed to move due west into south Texas and then down into Mexico in a few days.
75. WSI
Levi I really don't see much coming out of that system. I don't see the circulation coming to the surface at all at this point. I don't see much circulation below 600mb. Granted it looks a little better than yesterday, but still some shear to deal with, and some dry air. It has a long way to go in my personal opinion.

Lower level winds.


weathercore.com is coming along well. If you are looking for links, stop by.
Houston should be spared significant rain but some T-storms may work their way up there.

I have to leave for a while now see you all later!
Looking at the GFS 500vort at 54-108 hr range..sure looks like the next thing forming and heading north...



Link
WSI that is because that map doesn't show any vectors below 600 mb. If there were any, I bet they would show circulation. Just look at the visible loops. It is definately coming a long. The shear is weakening too as you can see in my link above. If this stays over water through tonight, we are in trouble.

I am sorry I don't have time to discuss this with you I have to go now. I really love your website! Hope to talk with you later!
WSI the map sayhuh just posted and the CIMSS 850mb map shows an 850 vort max near the center of the system. That proves something right there.

Later everyone!
Weatherwhatweather,

Azolla fern = khudzu(sp?)

Sounds like I need to quit trying to buy a lakehouse in Georgia and start thinking about land in the Artic. Anyone know a good realtor?
On the global warming in a flight class, it actually makes sense. People get used to certain weather patterns in their area, it is not without merit to include material that would remind them that these patterns do change over time and that you should rely just on your own internal weather expert.
There may be a very weak surface circulation off of Brownsville


Levi32, Is there any benefit to this system strengthening into a tropical storm when it's so close to the Texas coast. If anything, wouldn't land just prohibit any further growth? Where else would this system go. It's pretty much pasted on Texas, right? It's quite large, but it's threat looks to be short-lived. Warm water feeding it will only aid it while in the Gulf. Where will it find strength inland? The only thing that might be trouble is a strong easterly wind to knock it off the coast into even warmer water, right. Right now, if this Blob3L continues following it's pattern, successful convection should occur further away from the coast, leaving remnants of the storm behind at Texas's inland. Does that sound plausible to you?
84. WSI
Levi, it does look better than it did yesterday. I still don't see much coming from it, but we'll see. Wouldn't be the first time I was wrong. ;)

Thanks for the compliment on the web site. I appreciate it.
Just to calm everyones fears again today!..LOL

2PM Discussion:
DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
A SHARP NARROW UPPER TROUGH IS IN THE NW GULF WITH ANUPPER LOW
FORMING NEAR 27N86W.
AN AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE LIES JUST E OF THE
TROUGH COVERING THE CENTRAL AND E GULF. A PLUME OF MOISTURE IS
ADVECTED OUT OF THE EPAC STREAMING NWD ACROSS THE GULF BETWEEN
88W-95W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS
SWATH OF MOISTURE...MOST ORGANIZED IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WHERE
A WEAK SFC REFLECTION AS A TROUGH HAS DEVELOPED. MORE IMPRESSIVE
ACTIVITY HAS FORMED NEAR THE UPPER LOW N OF 26N W OF 95W.
DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS...SOME OF
THEM STRONG TO SEVERE...IN S TEXAS AND THE COASTAL WATERS.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE DUE TO UPPER LEVEL CONFLUENCE IS WIDESPREAD
ACROSS THE GULF E OF 88W KEEPING THIS AREA FAIR TO MOSTLY CLEAR.
A FEW SHOWERS ARE MOVING INLAND ACROSS FLORIDA. THESE SHOWERS
ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC TROUGH IN THE BAHAMAS. SHOWERS AND
TSTMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE IN THE W GULF TOMORROW AS THE UPPER
PATTERN CHANGES LITTLE. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE GULF
COAST ON FRI INCREASING THE CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE NE SECTOR.



86. Inyo
I just thought i'd point out that the FAA course addresses 'the effects of global warming on weather'... the words 'anthropomorphic' or 'Carbon Dioxide Emissions' aren't in there at all.

At this point nearly everyone agrees that the climate is warming... just not on exactly why. So this class isnt a comment on anthropomorphic events either way, even though they are probably occuring.
87. WSI
"Just to calm everyones fears again today!..LOL"

I tried, no one listened, LOL!
June 1 at 5am.

Jeff

hi all the i ask DR m about the North Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook and he have tell me the frist updat will be June 1st at 5 am this to went evere one no
Irregardless,

I would love to know what material is going to be presented regarding GW effects on very short term oriented weather. I think I would feel better if our nations pilots studied how to best manage micro-bursts than the very macro level global warming topic.

I know, it's not my course and I don't have to attend. It's just one man's opinion that it sure seems out of place.
It appears there is a little more shear in the Gulf than is being reported. The feathered look of clouds in satellite imagery suggests it.
The weak surface center is near 27N 97W

Where did ya get that info from Fred?
where did Aron go when i e mail him i got this back



This user is away from their mail.

I'm currently out of the office. If this is a community issue, please contact ultraviolet (lane@wunderground.com). If this is a technical issue, please contact support (support@wunderground.com).
You can see it on the surface observations

The position is my estimate.

The TX disturbance/blob/TD wannabe is sure going to make some friends of mine in west Texas awfully happy. Man, it's been grossly dry out there....for years.
Fred, that is just wind direction and temperature. That tells you nothing. Pressure have not fallen in that area.
The surface pressures remain high, around 1014 mb so it is only a very weak circulation at the surface.
Only specific weather disturbances can result in tropical cyclones. These include:
Tropical upper tropospheric troughs, which are cold-core upper level lows. A warm-core tropical cyclone may result when one of these (on occasion) works down to the lower levels and produces deep convection.

The SST's over there are just warm enough too!

Link

about 80 degree's.

Also a good sign we may have something is no one is here arguing about a "blob".

Where is everyone????
Can anyone please explain to me, in layman terms, the significance/definition of vorticity.

Also, why does a given model provide vorticities from 300-950 mb?

Finally, is there one level(300 mb vs. 500 mb) of vorticity that is used more than others?

I know someone could write a thesis on this topic(I've tried doing some web research) but if it could be pulled off in simple and short explanations, I would truly be most appreciative.
Ok Fred..LOL Whatever you say! Where is eveyone?..LOL There is nothing to argue about..Ha Ha! Oh well.
Man I need food, my blood sugar is dropping and I am getting giddy!
I'd say that sounds like a pretty good prediction gcain. GFS is still showing a storm in th EPac in a couple of days with a quiet Atlantic.
Aaron is out of the office for the remainder of the week. He will be back (and blogging!) next week.

now we no
Bob where do you get your information about "pressure falls" in an area?
I don't care what you guys are calling this thing off the Texas coast...I just wish it would move along now. I've caught up on my rain deficit and my armpits are showing signs of mildewing. It hasn't quit raining for more than a few minutes in the past three or four days.
Try again

http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/post-goes
One more time

Link
Levi here...Link

Or here...Link
Fred those links don't work I have tried. I love the site though. I wish those links would work but only the static pics will not the loops.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1019 AM CDT WED MAY 31 2006

.DISCUSSION...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW THE TX COASTAL TROF. THIS WX
FEATURE IS WEAKLY CLOSED AT 850MB...AND COMPLETELY CLOSED FROM
700MB ON UP...JUST ABOUT VERTICALLY STACKED. THIS IS PROVIDING A
VERY DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SOURCE INTO TX AND SW LA. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO FORM CONVERGENT BANDS OF SHRA/TSRA OVER MOST OF SE
TX...WITH THE MAIN EMPHASIS STAYING JUST TO THE WEST OF BPT.
HOWEVER...A LITTLE DRIFT TO THE NE WILL PLACE A VERY HEAVY PRECIP
AXIS OVER JEFFERSON COUNTY...WHICH RECEIVED UP TO 16 INCHES
MONDAY.

BELIEVE PREVIOUS FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH LEAVING 60% FOR SE
TX...30-40% FOR THE REMAINDER OF LA PORTION OF CWA.
Thanks Bob, that helps. Here is a comment I posted in GetReal's blog for you:

"By the way Bob, the NHC is out to lunch on this system in my opinion. They never mention anything about anything until it is a strong TS on top of them! I tell you they need to do better than this. They should have had a statement issued on this a long time ago."
Weatherguy is right. High pressure dominates, even though there appears to be a disturbance which looks a little tropical in nature.
I don't know why that map shows rising pressure, but there is definately an open wave at least in there. You what it could be? This is just my guess, but the rising pressure could be caused by the surface convergance evident on the visible satellite loops. This converging air might not be expanding out the top of the T-storms enough for the pressure to fall at the surface. Just a guess.
Ok Levi!..LOL I will go with my analysis and the NHC for now..LOL Again, a mid/upper level system can develop into a tropical system, BUT conditions need to be perfect. This system would need to sit off the coast for a few days, with not much shear. Unfortunately these things will not happen, especially with a cold front coming down to the Gulf states by Friday.
I guess I should have indicated on my earlier post that I was looking at a E PAC storm in that timeframe.
Regarding Bill Gray and what he says is the cause of more active hurricane seasons (increase in thermohaline circulation), I think that a lot of what he says is bull. Link

I think that slower current = warmer tropical waters = more and stronger storms (this may cause water farther north to cool, therefore reducing the risk of major hurricanes in New England).
Conditons as far as shear goes, for the Gulf and Western Atlantic will get worse as the weekend and next week approach. A nice Cut Off Low will drop down into the Carolinas, causing a trough to be carved out in the Eastern US, this is what will be pushing that cold front down, which is alittle unusual for this time of year. This will increase shear over the Gulf and Western Atlantic.
Bob home grown development is notoriously know for defying all odds. The shear is weakening right now, and how do you explain the convection sitting right on top of a supposed surface center and surviving! These things have a way of developing when know one thinks they can. The feedback could start any time, and then TD #1 would be on top of us. The SSTs are good, the shear is weakening, the open wave is closing, and the convection is not shearing apart but holding its ground and intensity!
"know"=known

Sorry
And Bob, you are right the shear will intensify in a few days, but not before it weakens over this storm.
MichaelSTL,

Just a curious thought [I by no means am an expert]..if you increased the circulation, wouldn't that enhance the energy through those currents increasing the ability to create storms? Conversely, if it slowed, I am curious if conditions in the slowed areas would become to adverse to form? Dunno..just thinking out loud. ;-)
Yes David it looks like the shear will lessen for a time over that area.
The thermohaline circulation moves warm water to the poles and cold water to the tropics, cooling them (several others have the same opinion as well). Also, if currents slow down, there is more time for the water to heat up.
I think the Atlnatic hurricane season will be VERY slow to start. There is just nothing out there. Way to much shear goin on. I wouldnt be surprised if we had a very slow seaon. I also think that if a storm gets into the gulf Tampa will be the next target. It would be another Katrina situation too.
Levi32 yes so this has a small ch for it to pop up oh when are you evere going to update your blog
Do you remember 2004? It was quiet until August and then everything went wild.
Bob,forget it:).....lol
Cant wait to see a HUGE hurricane with a perfect eye crawling up hurricane alley! yeeeeeeeeeeeeeehaaaaaaawwwww
swla: vorticity = spin. just a fancy word for it. a "vort max" is a spinning low-pressure disturbance.

the thing in texas ain't developing. i don't think. seems like the tail end down in campeche bay might have a shot if it can sit still for a while.
132. WSI
Levi, I think its a little unfair to say the NHC is out to lunch on this. It's not really that impressive. They mention the ULL and leave it at that. They don't have to issue a disturbance statement on something like this.

Like I said, in my personal opinion, it looks better than yesterday, but seems to have a long way to go. Like Bob said, shear has been the enemy, is the enemy, and will be the enemy.
Either way you slice it, it's not good.
look at the water vapor (or even the ir) and check out all the dry air being entrained in that low.
: G35Wayne be carfull what you wish for you this may get it
...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 44W/45W S OF 14N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. THE
WAVE IS NOT AS WELL DEFINED AS YESTERDAY BUT THERE IS STILL SOME
CYCLONIC TURNING EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. THIS FEATURE IS
ENHANCING CONVECTION NEAR THE WAVE AXIS WITHIN THE ITCZ
rw,

Thanks for the vorticity answer. Did you get mail reply?

Do you happen to know what level of vorticity, given by the models, is the most useful for prognistication?
G35Wayne,

Why? Hope it's not my alley!
The 950 mb (or the highest number, as some models don't have it at 950 mb; higher # mb = closer to the surface) level is the best level because it is closest to the surface and you are looking for a surface circulation.
MichaelSTL,

Is it possible, and what does it mean, if a model is showing vorticity(spin) at 950 mb but not 500 mb? Translation: Is this possible(surface spin but no upper level spin)?

Man, when you are this ignorant(albeit not stupid), it's hard to even ask/phrase the right question.
yep, got your mail.

often for precip inland, the higher level vorticity is important, but for a tropical system, it's surface.
definitely possible...happens all the time. most of the time the vort maxes at different levels are at different places...a "stacked" low has low pressure at all levels.

tropical systems have high pressure above low pressure...




look at all the color and loo at the bule start to pop up in the gulf that mean cat 5 winds and look at all the red too
I can't stay but I would like to say that I am not giving this disturbance a 100% guarantee of developing into a tropical depression. I am giving this system a 30% chance. It is MOST LIKELY that it will not develop, but I am saying that it has a fighting chance, and people along the Texas gulf coast should keep an eye on this one, because even if the winds are not a factor, the tremendous rains will be. The rain will be a huge weather story over the next couple days, because people that already got up to 15 in. of rain a few days ago are going to get that much over again in places.

See you all later!
Hellsniper..if you'll notice those graphs are reading the short term effect of moisture, oftentimes only a few hours effect, as part of sea surface temps along with actual water temps. It may be an extrapolation of the two, but the stats are skewed at any rate.
30% is a high chance....I would give it no more than .05% if that...you dont have anywhere near the ingrediants needed to brew a depression much less a storm...
Umm I don't think it matters if this thing is classified a TD at all... Its still dumping rain in Texas, and thats what matters. The possibility there will be any real tropical wind dammage is slim and none. Don't get your panties in a bunch. This is a rain event.
did any one see my post at 1:11pm my time?
I think I finally found it. You can absolutly see the difference in sst's relating to the North East Coast. But even more disturbing when looking at these two images is the temp difference in the Great Lakes!

Both color scales go from 1 to 32 degree's (C)

May 31 2006
Array_B

May 31st 2005
Array_B

This is about the 10th comparison I have come up with and all previous attempts failed due to the fact that I could not find both the 2004 and 2005 data set where they used the same scale as the current 1-32 degree one.

Well I found it and it still shows exactally what I have been so adimantly trying to make a point of. If you live in the north east of the country be prepared. That is all I have come up with due to the fact that I cannot come up with many more side by side visual measurement comparisons due to a "mysterious" abscence of data. Or good comparable data.
Man, tough crowd(a.k.a. Hellsniper).

Thanks rw, MichaelSTL, Weatherguy for vorticity answers.

Gotta go rescue a munchkin from early summer boredom(oh, do you remember the days?). Have a great evening.

Please keep the TX blob thing away from Houston and SE TX. Send some or her right on over here to SW LA and the rest to far west Texas.
i do not claim to be any type of weather expert but i'm getting tired of the "over speculation" of people who think they are experts. i live in mobile al and have been through numerous TS and Hurricanes the past 20 plus years. It's a weather cycle, and not every storm that comes up this year is going to be a CAT 5 so people need to be aware of what's going on but not "speculating of impending doom" as seems to me what happens here frequently.
yes, but all the people who predicted an early start for the season are just dying for a TD at least to talk about.
sts100launch no disrespect but this is no cycle that I or anyone else has ever seen. That is not just my opinion. It is actually the opinion of some "weather experts" that these storms of the severe magnitude will only get more frequent.

Now this not over speculating. But yes I guess you could say some of us including some verry intelligent scientific minds are speculating impending doom.

Take a look at this; an article that debunks the AMO as being the cause of increased hurricane activity is going to be released soon.
Yep I will have no summer school this summer since I will have graduated from high school so that means I will have even more time to kick back and watch the Hurricane season.

Taking a look at the weather immages nothing looks to threating.
53'rd weather, there is a site that archives sea temperature anomalies, so that you can compare one date with another. I don't have the link here, but believe you can find it with a Google search of "sea temperature anomaly".
Yeah, I'm thinking bad season for the NE aswell... It seems that everything is falling into place to make this one hell of a season for the east coast. Maybe the NE will get storms on the frequency that the gulf got last year. Eh... I think its their turn to take a hit anyways, new orleans can't take another blow (No pun intended...).
160. RL3AO
T-minus 3 hours 3 minutes
tigerbait,

I know but I do not like the data collection methods. The only method I like is the Advanced High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) on the NOAA polar-orbiting satellites. Done from space and can measure the entire Atlantic as a whole. (unlike ships and bouys). Also produces the highest resolution imaging of the actuall temps. You can see the currents and eddy's. It really is the best possible images. The only problem is that not all images are available. For some reason 2 years are missing from some of there data.(2004-2005) Hence why I have a tough time comming up with comparison shots.
weather53rd my 1st assumption is that you are with the reserve unit at Keesler and that you have a very credible level of knowledge. While i respect that very much I wish to point out that "experts" are comparing weather patterns over the past 100 yrs. and I don't beleive that any of them have the precise (SST, Upper level winds, etc) data of lets say 1900 to 1960 verses 1960 to 2006. So to make a blanket statement that "this is no cycle that I or anyone else has ever seen" seems to me to be exactly the overhype i'm concerned about.
AVHRR Imagery

Here is a link to there site.
hellsniper...hush now about the east coast. just repeat over and over again...


fishstorms...fishstorms...fishstorms...

SILVER SPRING, MD Hundreds of concerned citizens and leaders from across the nation will join Hurricane Katrina survivors Wednesday to call for the resignation of the heads of the National Hurricane Center (NHC) and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) at the NOAA Headquarters just outside of Washington, D.C. During an 11 a.m. demonstration, advocates will demand that NOAA stop covering up the growing scientific link between severe hurricanes and global warming while insisting on real solutions to the problem of global warming.

The protest comes at the start of the 2006 Hurricane season, which officials at the NHC predict will be a hectic, above-normal tropical storm season. Speeches begin at 11 a.m. EDT and protestors will carry dramatic props and photographs of Hurricane Katrina. A 37-hour demonstration will follow, lasting until midnight on June 1st, with picketing during the day and a candlelight vigil by night.

After a record four major hurricanes hit Florida in 2004, the 2005 hurricane season was even more devastating. Of the six most powerful hurricanes ever to hit America in the past 150 years, three occurred within 52 days in 2005. Yet, despite a flurry of peer-reviewed scientific studies linking planetary warming to storms like Katrina, leaders at NOAA and the NHC continue to claim that the recent hurricane devastation is part of a "natural cycle."

WHEN: 11 A.M. EDT, Wednesday, May 31st thru midnight on Thursday, June 1st

WHO: The U.S. Climate Emergency Council, Katrina survivors and concerned citizens from across the nation

WHAT: Press conference and speeches at 11 a.m. followed by a 37-hour protest and vigil to condemn government the cover up of science linking hurricanes and global warming

WHERE: NOAA Headquarters, 1325 East/West Highway, Silver Spring, MD


These environmental activists are misrepresenting the highly uncertain scientific research connecting global warming and intense hurricane activity for political purposes. This demonstration by the U.S. Climate Emergency Council is as objectionable to me as the fossil fuel industry's recent ad campaign that presented a distorted view of the scientific studies on the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets.

Jeff Masters
What does anybody think about this?
Alright aquak... Just throwing in my two cents. I hadn't quite voiced my opinion on the Season yet. No reason to be Pompous.
Jeff Masters i think i e mail you on the big H thats tell the hurricne where to go
Ok I exagerated a little bit. I will have to refrain from making such dire statements. I would love to know how you knew anyhting about my duty status. I guess in my quest for knowledge regarding global warming I must have gotten a little fired up.

I will try to remember in the future that not everyone needs to "flip out".

Thanks
Jeff, thank you for your most recent post pointing out that BOTH sides of the global warming arugment are misusing the information to push their point of view.
Right on Dr M.

I think to some, playing fast and loose with science is like cheating in college athletics. Gosh, the other teams are doing it, and we really want our team to win, so I guess we have to do it to.
oh Sniper! I never mean to be pompous. Ever. I am only here for smiles and comic relief. Forgive me if I came off as such.

You guys on here are great, and these dicussions, although spirited, are always very educational and informative. Thanks to all of you who take the time and do the research for the rest of us! Sincerely, Aqua (backing out of the blog now)
53rd - like i said i live in mobile and have some friends who flew with the 53rd so based on you screen name and your statements i figured that you were with the unit. I appreciate your response and i hope i'm as willing to step back if i get over zealous as you were. Thanks!!!!!
what to do when the frist hurricne comes

1 Do NOT Panic

2 we need to find out where it going

3 we need to find out how storng it will be and where it may be going

4 it may or may not hit land fall so to not cont on evere storm hitng land fall in the usa

5 if there a hurricane strong then cat 4 comeing to the usa then Panic

but 1st of all you need to find out 1st where it is going and if it is going to hit land fall her the usa s Do NOT Panic when we see are 1st storm of the year
I issued my final update for the year - thanks to recent SST cooling and La Nina's demise, my numbers are down to 17/11/4
people arguing about global warming, Even if we stop using fossil fuels now, the atmosphere will continue to rais another 5 degrees. And believe me, IT IS IMPOSSIBLE TO EVEN HALF THE USE OF FOSSIL FUELS. We can't stop using them now, and I don't think we will stop using them untill they are Economically Depleted. You might aswell prepare and try to soften the Impact that global warming is going to cause instead of bickering about it...
Posted By: ForecasterColby at 9:21 PM GMT on May 31, 2006.
I issued my final update for the year - thanks to recent SST cooling and La Nina's demise, my numbers are down to 17/11/4



What are you talking about???

From Masters entry:

1) Weaker trade winds than usual have led to anomalous warming of the tropical Atlantic since the early part of April. Sea surface temperatures remain much warmer than average, and are expected to be much warmer than average during the August-October peak of hurricane season.
much warmer than average, and are expected to be much warmer than average during the August-October peak of hurricane season.


peak of hurricane season.

ok whats dos that mean
"A 37-hour demonstration will follow, lasting until midnight on June 1st, with picketing during the day and a candlelight vigil by night."

I wonder how much CO2 will be released by the candlelight vigil.

I bet if people quit arguing the issue of global warming so much, the global temperature would drop 1C.
I have no idea what Colby is talking about by "cooling". By the way, take a look at this insane SST reading - 90+ degrees (Alec provided the link; it said 90.9 degrees yesterday)!
much warmer than average, and are expected to be much warmer than average during the August-October peak of hurricane season.


peak of hurricane season.

ok whats dos that mean

peak of hurricane is when the storms are more common to occur
184. Inyo
I wonder if there is a link between El Nino and election years.. perhaps all the hot air eminating from Washington DC sets off the cycle.


also i wonder if the liberals will politically abuse Katrina as bad as the conservatives politically abused 9-11.
What would happen if a hurricane passed over water that is this hot (see my link earlier)?

Hi everyone,

just caught up on all of your posts...

It is getting closer and closer to June 1st the start of the season...

Everyone got their supplies ready???

Have a great evening, enjoy reading your posts!

Gamma
on the noaa radars what does the HDW stand for?it an overlay.
High Density Winds
thanks hades
i cant believe ppl are protesting the nhc and noaa. they got the forecast right!
Hey all,

Just thought I would drop a line about 2006 Hurricane Season...

Now I still think that 15-18 Storms with 9 Hurricanes and 4 or 5 Very Strong Hurricanes(cat3,4 or 5)... Do I think that one is going to hit the US, I hope not but it does not look good... :0(, are you ready for the season>>>I am for sure and I hope that you will be ready very soon...

Just My 2 cents


Taco:0)
I said coolING, not cooler than average. They're still warm, but they aren't at last year's levels.
Jeff Masters said that the Atlantic is warming.
Also, did you see the buoy with 90+(!) degree temperatures in the Gulf?
90+? Sounds like it needs a hurricane to come cool it off.
Hurricane Season 2006 I dont think we will get anything this year tooo much hype!


I love it when im proved wrong
Most of the people at the nhc and noaa know what is happening, and they are forecasting accordingly. But they are pressured to downplay the cause of global warming by the ruling faction of the government. This is the reason they are suffering criticism.
Posted By: MichaelSTL at 3:27 PM PDT on May 31, 2006.
What would happen if a hurricane passed over water that is this hot

you do notwant to no ok her it is can you say cat 5
I really don't understand why people seem to think NOAA and the NHC are hiding something. There is absolutely no way to determine whether the current very short-term upswing in tropical cyclone activity (only in the Atlantic Basin, I might add) is directly or even indirectly tied to global warming. It is certainly a possibility, but it's equally (or perhaps even more) likely that it is part of a natural cycle, or even a product of random chance. Global warming is occurring...and will have a significant and possibly devastating impact...but we don't know the time scale on which these changes will take place. It is impossible to attribute individual extreme weather events (or even short-term trends) to a relatively large-scale phenonena. Demonstrations like this one are actually counterproductive--it vindicates the skeptics and dissuades the uncertain. I haven't seen Al Gore's recent documentary, but I have a sinking feeling that it may have been over-dramatizied to appeal to the masses...a dumbed-down version of the truth. Has anyone seen it?
actually at the nhc they dont even deal with global warming and at NOAA they know there is no way to prove the correlation.
The season is here.
thundero1..the increase in cyclone activity has not been confined to the Atlantic basin.
The 1:1 correlation between emissions and global temp increases IS the proof.
weatherwhatweather:

Then China's really in for it :P
hi everyone , this is my first ever posting for wunderground , hurricane seasons coming up and it'll be thrilling just to wait for new storms to show up...
AndrewTjandra welcome you may wantto start up blog

i am taz or you can call me david
It's true, China is not a signatory to the Kyoto treaty, but not because it is an 'emerging nation', whatever that means. China is not a member because if it were it would restrict the New York based international corporations which produce more consumerist junk there than the mind can comprehend.
for all those up tight about the 90.3 @ VCAF1 go to the NOAA bouy site look this one up then check the surrounding bouys and the temps range from 79.8 to 87.3 so calm down. 1 bouy do not a hurricane make.
Just a curiousity...posted earlier was the NWS statement for Lake Charles. The piece that was interesting in it for me was the following statement

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1019 AM CDT WED MAY 31 2006

.DISCUSSION...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW THE TX COASTAL TROF. THIS WX
FEATURE IS WEAKLY CLOSED AT 850MB...AND COMPLETELY CLOSED FROM
700MB ON UP...JUST ABOUT VERTICALLY STACKED. THIS IS PROVIDING A
VERY DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SOURCE INTO TX AND SW LA. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO FORM CONVERGENT BANDS OF SHRA/TSRA OVER MOST OF SE
TX...WITH THE MAIN EMPHASIS STAYING JUST TO THE WEST OF BPT.
HOWEVER...A LITTLE DRIFT TO THE NE WILL PLACE A VERY HEAVY PRECIP
AXIS OVER JEFFERSON COUNTY...WHICH RECEIVED UP TO 16 INCHES
MONDAY.


BELIEVE PREVIOUS FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH LEAVING 60% FOR SE
TX...30-40% FOR THE REMAINDER OF LA PORTION OF CWA.

Am I reading it right to understand 16 inches of rain fell on Monday? That seems kinda signifcant to me if I understand this correctly...wouldn't that be a test on the already "weakened but kinda fixed" levee system in the area? Seems like it should be an honorable mention besides a non descript trough notation in the NHC statement. Just me...
Well it can help Such as the gulf loop helped Rita Katina
My prediction:

16 named storms
11 hurricanes
5 major hurricanes
Sayhah,

Yea, I posted that Lake Charles NWS forecast. It did, indeed, rain 16 inches as stated in Jefferson County. There were cars door deep in water along I-10. We even got a few inches in Lake Charles but nothing like that. We received way more last night than on Monday. They come in like feeder bands.
This whole calling for people at NOAA and the NHC has really upset me. Especially the Katrina people who should be calling for their own corrupt government leaders to step down instead of reputable scientists who worked their butts off for most of 2005 and saved countless numbers of lives due to their hard work and dedication.

I am also a little tired of the overhyping of hurricane intensities. Can anyone tell me what the deadliest hurricane on record in the Atlantic was? The Great Hurricane of 1780...no brainer on this site I'm sure :) , but can anyone tell me what it's maximum wind speed or pressure was?? What about all the other hurricanes that we actually have on record? No?? So how can we honestly say that 2005 was the busiest season EVER and that it was caused by human induced Global Warming?

As a side note, the BBC had an interesting article about new climate research being done in the Artic with new core samples they were able to take. Very interesting and relates to global warming.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/5034026.stm

I found the last paragraph to be particularly interesting..

Cheers..

AZ
This isn't gonna last for long. It's the Western Atlantic Water Vapor loop. The loop gets staticy as the image is rocked out of kilter for a moment. Satalite took a little hit?
hey AZ, good post - the last paragraph is indeed interesting and reflects the uncertainty in the science as well as the tremendous variation in temperatures we've seen over the geologic history of the planet. Here it is for those too lazy to follow the link:

"Today's warming of the Arctic can, in all likelihood, be attributed to mankind's impact on the planet, but as our data suggest, natural processes operating in the past have also resulted in a significant warming and cooling of the Arctic."
WV Image is beginning to look like the tropics again. Everyone all geared up?
Hello everyone. I monitored and posted to this blog last year. Looking forward to some interesting conversation during the next 6 months.
Another interesting article relating to weather and spinning statistics..

Link

Az
swlaaggie, I am suprised I haven't seen any national coverage on this..or did I miss it? Seems like flooding in that area would still be of National interest.
I went to go find a decent article on the flooding & ran across this-

It's more on the upcoming papers that back up Emanual's work of increasing hurricane strength & ↑SST.

In a statement accompanying the release of the study, Huber said the results were important because the overall measure of cyclone activity, whether through more intense storms or more frequent storms, had doubled with a one-quarter-degree increase in average global temperature.


Article saying the arctic was tropical 55 million years ago. Wish I had a time machine to check out those hurricanes.

Link


12am CDT...the season begins!
See a similar article was recently posted.

I new about the Texas flooding but saw no news coverage of it. Big rain event coming back into the northeast I hope they won't have to give coverage of that.

225. SpyRI
Re: the tropical arctic research story, Go URI!!!
I'm Rhode Island born
and I'm Rhode Island bred
and when I die
I'll be Rhode Island dead!
So go go Rhode Island island
Go go Rhode Island island,
Go Go Rhode Island,
Go URI!!!
227. Inyo
I predict 32 hurricanes in the atlantic
2 of them will be catergory 12.

in the next 3 years a hurricane will hit los angeles.

228. Alec
LOL..Inyo
I predict:
45 hurricanes
21 major
4 hypercanes
and all will be fish storms!(I wish...LOL)
I heard Joe Bastard(i) talking about the LST off of Northern Indiana approaching the lower 80s, with shear expected to lower to 10kt soon. Seeing how it's been 72 million years since Chicago was hit by a Hurricane, he believes it's long overdue. Cat 3, Chicago, August 27. Thank you Accuweather!
1995-2005 NEW-ERA of Hurricane Peak Strengths and total storm activity per year
Location of Source Data:
http://tinyurl.com/7q4xp 1851-2002
Wikipedia 2003-2005
For brevity sake, abbreviations are used:
TS = Tropical Storm
C1 = Hurricane Category 1, C2 = Hurricane Category 2
C3, C4, C5 = Major Hurricanes Category 3, 4 & 5 respectively.


1995 : TS=8, C1=4, C2=2, C3=2, C4=3, C5=0
1996 : TS=4, C1=3, C2=0, C3=4, C4=2, C5=0
1997 : TS=5, C1=1, C2=0, C3=1, C4=0, C5=0
1998 : TS=4, C1=3, C2=4, C3=1, C4=1, C5=1
1999 : TS=4, C1=0, C2=3, C3=0, C4=5, C5=0
2000 : TS=7, C1=5, C2=0, C3=1, C4=2, C5=0
2001 : TS=6, C1=5, C2=0, C3=2, C4=2, C5=0
2002 : TS=8, C1=1, C2=1, C3=1, C4=1, C5=0
2003 : TS=9, C1=3, C2=1, C3=2, C4=0, C5=1
2004 : TS=5, C1=1, C2=1, C3=2, C4=3, C5=1
2005 : TS=13, C1=7, C2=1, C3=2, C4=1, C5=4
======================================

TS = 8+4+5+4+4+7+6+8+9+5+13 = 73 TS
C1 = 4+3+1+3+0+5+5+1+3+1+7 = 33 C1
C2 = 2+0+0+4+3+0+0+1+1+1+1 = 13 C2
C3 = 2+4+1+1+0+1+2+1+2+2+2 = 18 C3
C4 = 3+2+0+1+5+2+0+1+0+3+1 = 18 C4
C5 = 0+0+0+1+0+0+0+0+1+1+4 = 7 C5

Total Cyclones = 73+33+13+18+18+7 = 162
164 / 11 years = 14.9 cyclones per year.
======================================

----- OLD-ERA 1851-1994 -----
465 / 144 = 3.2 TS per year average.
274 / 144 = 1.9 C1 per year average.
195 / 144 = 1.35 C2 per year average.
151 / 144 = 1.05 C3 per year average.
73 / 144 = 0.51 C4 per year average.
21 / 144 = 0.15 per year average.
1179 / 144 = 8.19 cyclones per year average.

----- NEW-ERA 1995-2006 -----
73 / 11 = 6.64 TS per year average.
33 / 11 = 3.0 C1 per year average.
13 / 11 = 1.8 C2 per year average.
18 / 11 = 1.64 C3 per year average.
18 / 11 = 1.64 C4 per year average.
7 / 11 = 0.63 C5 per year average.
162 / 11 years = 14.7 cyclones per year.
======================================

Percentages difference between OLD-ERA and NEW-ERA
107.5% MORE Tropical Storms
57.9% MORE Hurricanes of Category 1
33.3% MORE Hurricanes of Category 2
56.2% MORE Hurricanes of Category 3
221.6% MORE Hurricanes of Category 4
320.0% MORE Hurricanes of Category 5
79.5% MORE Total Atlantic Basin Cyclones 1995-2005 than from 1851-1994

BEFORE 1995 the average was (named) 8 storms per year. Since 1995 we have gotten accustomed to thinking in terms 15 per year as normal.

WE have also gotten used to thinking of 12oo tornadoes per year as normal -- this year may break 1,866 if the trend continues at the current pace for the next seven months.


http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/torn/monthlytornstats.html
Last update midnight May 25, 2006

Score then for month of May 2006 = 138
2006 Year-to-Date = 748

http://www.stormreportmap.com/
reports 3 tornadoes May 26th
reports 2 tornadoes May 27th
reports 1 tornadoes May 28th
reports 3 tornadoes May 29th
reports ? tornadoes May 30th
reports 8 tornadoes May 31st

May 30th will not display. Data unknown.
3+2+1+3+ +8 = 19 plus unknown since page last updated.

748 + 19 = 767 Tornadoes in 2006 first 150 days.
(Maybe more when May 30th data turns up.)

http://ecosyn.us/1/Tornadoes.html

1986 total for year (765) now surpassed.

Next records to fall is 1981 (782 tornadoes in 12-months)
and 1978 (789 tornamoes in 12-month year).

At the current rate extended to 12 months,
expect about 1,866 tornadoes for 2006, a new record!



Posted By: AZuRe033 at 2:24 AM GMT on June 01, 2006.
This whole calling for people at NOAA and the NHC has really upset me. Especially the Katrina people who should be calling for their own corrupt government leaders to step down instead of reputable scientists who worked their butts off for most of 2005 and saved countless numbers of lives due to their hard work and dedication.

I am also a little tired of the overhyping of hurricane intensities. Can anyone tell me what the deadliest hurricane on record in the Atlantic was? The Great Hurricane of 1780...no brainer on this site I'm sure :) , but can anyone tell me what it's maximum wind speed or pressure was?? What about all the other hurricanes that we actually have on record? No?? So how can we honestly say that 2005 was the busiest season EVER and that it was caused by human induced Global Warming?

As a side note, the BBC had an interesting article about new climate research being done in the Artic with new core samples they were able to take. Very interesting and relates to global warming.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/5034026.stm

I found the last paragraph to be particularly interesting..

"Today's warming of the Arctic can, in all likelihood, be attributed to mankind's impact on the planet, but as our data suggest, natural processes operating in the past have also resulted in a significant warming and cooling of the Arctic."


You have greatly exaggerated to try to win a debating point, instead of applying science to come to the truth, chips fall wherever they may.

The old records are not complete, but they are not so incomplete after 1851. The records and how we know them is posted at http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/hurdat/ and you can go there and read the researchers notes, look at scanned old newspapers, etc.

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/hurdat/easyhurdat_5102.html is a long 5+ megabytes file. It has the current version of accepted best knowledge from 1851 onwards.

Good people worked hard -- professionals in every sense of the word. It is shameful to insult the work they sent decades on to gain political points or to promote a point of view based on economic strategies which benefit one segment over another.

If you can show a BETTER RECORD, then do so. Otherwise, this is the record we accept until a better one comes along. You can't please everybody and there are quibblers who don't like the official rating of Katrina's landfall wind speeds in the official record. That just happened with the best instrumentation the human race has ever assembled watching every minute of it.

There's no such thing as "overhyping of hurricane intensities". If anything, people are sadly misinformed about the deadly dangers of every size hurricane. With population thickening in harm's way, too many people are complacent about the damage a hurricane can do to them and the regional economy where it strikes. The proper attitude and wariness has not yet been instilled in the public, even after the 2005 Hurricane Season.

"So how can we honestly say that 2005 was the busiest season EVER and that it was caused by human induced Global Warming?"


2005 was the busiest season EVER in our record-keeping period. As hurricanes are heat engines, one has to explain where the heat came from at any earlier time to create strong and frequent storms? What's your answer? Where did the mystery heat come from, and why don't we have any records of that? You have to explain why there would be severe storm seasons closer to an ice age when the Earth had been freezing and largely covered with ice. How does that work? And you have to explain how heat gets out of the Earth today around the Greenhouse Gases we know are here now but were never here at these levels over the past 450,000 years at least. What's your explanation for the mystery of escaping heat?

The evidence is conclusive. Human beings have burned an ancient fossil ecosystem long buried deep in the earth and turned the carbons into gases. They have been added to the air, and nature is not cleaning the mess as fast as it is created. WE can measure the increase. We know things about atomic isotopes which fingerprint the greenhouse gases as ancient origin.

You have some exlaining to do, so begin.

The BBC quote talks about 55,000,000 years ago, when the Earth was still quivering from the asteroid impact 10,000,000 years earlier. The devastation from the Alveraz Asteroid sterilized North America, and it took 3,000,000 years before that scab really began to heal. Ecology is itself more complex than meteorology or climatology. Life can, and does, and did, change the Earth profoundly. The fact that you can breath the air is because life changed the atmosphere.

55,000,000 years ago is a long time away from here. It's much harder to get answers, and these drilling cores are parts of the steps of getting answers. One thing you can be certain of is the world was vastly different then, and none of your exeriences today can equip you for guessing about then. Today we have records that go back 1,000s of years -- you can read Julius Caesar's own words still from 2,000 years ago. We know a lot more about today than we ever can about long ago. Accept that and live with it.

A few scraps of premature data leaking out of core labs is not adequate data to bet your life on or bet your neighbor's life on. The PRECAUTIONARY PRINCIPLE states: You may gamble with your own life (play russian roulette, go skydiving, or bull fighting) but you are not allowed to gamble with anybody else's life. You have to accept that rule because it is compulsory -- if you gamble with other's lives you pay the price for losing by forfeiture of your own life. You may be executed under the law for mass homocide.

Life is not a political game of winner take all. You must live sociably in society or else get out. That applies to all extremes of the political spectrum. If you gamble with people's lives when the scientists whom we pay to warn us of dangers impending, I on your jury will vote with the majority for your execution by lethal injection if people die because of anything you did, wrote, or said, which prevented them from getting the warning intact and unfudged by political spin. Scientists, and nobody else, have been given the job of warning society of serious threats. We need to examine their evidence, not cherry pick it to support a preconceived political or economic position.

I have presented evidence that there is paid science hoaxers working in organized fashion to deceive the body politic. This evidence was passed through Federal Courts of Law and passed Due Process already. Like the STEM CELL FRAUD in South Korea, any scientist found to be engaged in science hoaxing is to be cast out of society as refuse not fit to live amongst us. It is easy enough for you to examine this courtroom evidence because the judge ordered all 40,000,000 pages posted online. As you start to sift through the evidence and dump in the SEPPtic tank those toxic felon predators no better than any other organized crime mafioso, you are not left with many scientists left disagreeing that human-caused greenhouse gases are a deadly danger which requires active attention and remediation.

Look on my blog for samples of evidence of science crimes. And learn the names of those who have been found by court process to be professional career criminals who happen to have PhD after their names. Those science-fraudsters are outcasts for life, no redemption is possible.

Science needs to be respected by people typing on computers they can't build, sending their words over fiber optics and satellite relays they can't understand. Science is not a punching bag for political bullies and organized crime. In the end everybody will see that forensics and criminal justice are SCIENCES TOO. No big fish and no little fish will swim out of the net -- you can bet your life that fact is true.

It's a serious CRIME to yell "Fire" in a crowded theater when there is no fire, because people may panic and some may die. Scientists know that and are cautious and conservative in their statements. It is far more serious to yell "NO FIRE" when there is one, and every person who dies because they were defrauded by false statements is held against the villian for making such fraudulent statements.

In Law, the getaway driver is equally guilty to the triggerman if a death occurs during commission of a crime. There are 1,500 deaths in New Orleans, so far. Don't be the "getaway driver" for organized crime frauds leading to a false lowering of the threat level. The danger is much higher than the public yet knows.

Facts related to that are also posted on my blog, but here's a short sample: 2006 is in the running for the most tornadoes EVER recorded in out history.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/torn/monthlytornstats.html
Last update midnight May 25, 2006

Score then for month of May 2006 = 138
2006 Year-to-Date = 748

http://www.stormreportmap.com/
reports 3 tornadoes May 26th
reports 2 tornadoes May 27th
reports 1 tornadoes May 28th
reports 3 tornadoes May 29th
reports ? tornadoes May 30th
reports 8 tornadoes May 31st

May 30th will not display. Data unknown.
3+2+1+3+ +8 = 19 plus unknown since page last updated.

748 + 19 = 767 Tornadoes in 2006 first 150 days.
(Maybe more when May 30th data turns up.)

http://ecosyn.us/1/Tornadoes.html

1986 total for year (765) now surpassed.

Next records to fall is 1981 (782 tornadoes in 12-months)
and 1978 (789 tornamoes in 12-month year).

At the current rate extended to 12 months,
expect about 1,866 tornadoes for 2006, a new record!
Hello everyone!

I enjoyed this blog so far.

As a mathematician my calculations are giving me these results for 2006 season.

In June there is 75% that tropical storm will be formed. In July there is 100% possibility of one, and 67% of two storms to be formed. In August there is 100% of 3, 75% of 4 and only 33% of 5 storms to be formed. In September there is near to 88% of probability that 5 storms will occur, and 50% of 6. In October there is 100% possibility that 3 storms will form in Atlantic-Caribbean region, and only 33% of 4 storms to be formed. In November there is 95% possibility of one storm, and in December there is only 45% of possibility that tropical storms can occur.

In total my mathematical models are suggesting that there will be at least 16 tropical storms in Atlantic-Caribbean region during season 2006. During period August-October at least 3 to 4 hurricanes will landfall US.

By the way, what do you think about last years hurricane Vince which made landfall (for the first time in history) in Europe (town of Huelva in Spain)? I know that he entered Europe as tropical depression and not as a storm, but still this was amazing! Is this isolated incident or what?

Thank you all.

FormOne

P.S. I am sorry for my English. That's 'cause it's not my native language.
ScienceCop, a question on your heat engine analogy: I believe that heat engines rely on temperature difference, not "temperature". Even if there is more heat present in tropical waters, it takes a temperature contrast to convert that heat into wind. Is that correct?

I believe I've heard that the global warming models predict greater warming in the polar regions than in the tropics. It seems like that would tend to lessen the temperature contrast.

I think it is rational to say that a longer season (due to warmer waters) will increase annual storm frequency, and perhaps it is rational to say that a lower temperature contrast (from global warming) will lower wind shear, and thus more/stronger storms, but I struggle to understand how more fuel (warm water) alone will result in greater frequency/intensity.

Thanks


The current trend for increased tropical Cyclone activity is likely due to the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation.

The Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO) is a long cycle of changes in the sea surface temperature of the North Atlantic Ocean. During times of warm AMO there is in increase in the number of major hurricanes which is not good news for Florida. Since about 1995 the AMO has switched from cool to warm so we will likely continue to see more major hurricanes for some time.

During the last warm cycle which lasted about 40 years (1926-1965) there were 18 major hurricanes that hit Florida. That's about 1 every other year (0.45/yr)while during the 30 year cool phase from 1966-1995 there were only 3 or about 1 every 10 years (.10/yr). That' 4.5 times as many during the warm cycle vs the cool cycle




Major Florida Hurricanes 1926-1965

Major Florida Hurricanes 1966-1995

235. WSI
FormOneStorm,

I assume you are new, as I have not seen your name here before. Welcome!

Don't worry about your grammar or spelling, its great. Nice figures you posted there.

Vince was quite a storm wasn't it? It defied a lot of odds. My guess (and its just that, a guess) is that Vince was an isolated storm event... just one part of the wild 2005 season.

The 2005 Atlantic Hurricane season didn't end untill around January 5th... Ya'll ready for the 2006 Atlantic Hurricane season only 5 months later?
237. WSI
So is everyone satisfied that the system off Texas is indeed not going to turn tropical? :)
Yeah, anyone see the blob coming off of columbia? Think it could be anything? I mean it appears to be caught in a trough, think that could drag it over water?
Mixed bag of comments:

That blob off of Columbia looks nice and symmetric. If it stays together another day or so I might be interested.

The East Pacific has an area with a lot of rotation, but very disorganized convection. Is that the place the GFS has something developing?

And, what is that thing over east Texas? Looks like one nasty stalled front / ULL that's pulling insane amounts of moisture from the western Gulf. Is it forecast to move anywhere any time soon?
Welcome StormOne!

How did you arrive at your numbers mathematically?

Thanks for your thoughts!
What does sheer look like over the Carribean right now?
There is an upper level low near 29N97W and a weak surface trough along the Texas Coast. This is not likely to develop into anything.
Posted By: ScienceCop at 9:02 AM GMT on June 01, 2006

Next records to fall is 1981 (782 tornadoes in 12-months)
and 1978 (789 tornamoes in 12-month year).

At the current rate extended to 12 months,
expect about 1,866 tornadoes for 2006, a new record!


I can tell you right now that 1981 and 1978 do not have the record for most tornadoes (not even close; in fact, not even half of the record).

The record is 2004 with 1,819 tornadoes. Link
ScienceCop,

What a very long post. My first reaction is: What debate am I exactly trying to win? And, what exactly have I exagerated?

And here's the irony...I am "greatly exagerating," but in you very own post you use phrases like "the old records are not complete," "excepted best knowledge," "if you can find a better record," and "busiest season ever in our record-keeping period." Thank you for providing examples of my point. The fact is, we do not know and research is being done all the time to try and give us a better picture of a world that is over 4 billion years old. The more accurate and complete that picture is, the better our conclusions will become.

And this quote really gave me a chuckle: "The evidence is conclusive."

What is conclusive? I have explaining to do, but you don't? I say "we don't know" and you say "we do and it's conclusive." Interesting..

And as a matter of point, saying that someone doesn't know how to build the computer they are typing on is a very silly statement. You know next to nothing, if at all, about most of the people who post on this blog..so I'll tell you what, the next time your computer goes down, just give me a call and I'll come running with my multi-meter and soldering iron in tow to fix it for you. At least it will save you some money in paying someone else to fix it for you....

Regards,

Az
Science cop, maybe you should turn your police powers on yourself.

May 2006 was an exceptionally light year for tornados in the US. Only 142, less than half of the three-year average. We are in no danger of shattering any tornado records.
Also, Sciencecop, it is disingenous at best to compare a 140-year period, your "old era", to a 10 year period, your "new era". you are basically defining your eras in such a way to guarantee that your conclusion will appear to be supported by the numbers. what basis did you use for defining the two eras as you did?
The GFS, Nogaps, and UKMET all are now in agreement with a cyclone generating over south Georgia/north Florida June 4 or 5th and moving out over the Gulfstream. While they indicate a cold-core storm right now, shear is dropping and the GulfStream has 80 degree temps in that area right now.
Hello Stellar!

Basically, I used statistical method to create this prediction. This data (what I posted here) was only a part of calculus. I used last cycle of tropical weather data (in Atlantic region) which occurred between last decade of 20th and the start of 21st century.

You can see that prediction is based on statistical model and not on meteorological or other methods.