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Bill Gates takes on hurricanes

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:49 PM GMT on July 27, 2009

Bill Gates thinks big. His charitable foundation has poured $1 billion into the fight against that great scourge of humankind, malaria, resulting in the creation of a new vaccine that is 100% effective in mice, and is now headed towards trials in humans. If successful, Gates' efforts have the potential to save millions of lives. Gates has also turned his attention to another great scourge of humankind, the hurricane. In a 2008 patent filing that recently came to light, Bill Gates and his friends presented a scheme for reducing the strength of hurricanes by cooling sea surface temperatures, using a fleet of ships that bring up cold water from the depths. Can Gates really pull this off? I don't think so. The obstacles are fourfold: technical, financial, environmental, and legal.


Figure 1. A diagram from a 2008 Bill Gates patent filing, depicting an array of hurricane-control vessels in the Gulf of Mexico. Image credit: techflash.com.

Technical issues
While modification of hurricanes is theoretically possible, the scale of the undertaking is truly enormous. A fleet of dozens or hundreds of ships spanning a huge swath of ocean would be required, and these ships would have to be able to withstand the 50-foot waves and 160 mph winds a major Category 5 hurricane could deliver. As I discussed when a similar scheme was proposed in 2006 by Atmocean, Inc., it is not clear how long the cold water pumped to the surface will stay there--the cold water pumped to the surface is more dense than the water beneath it, and so will tend to sink, allowing warmer water beneath to replace it and warm the surface waters again. Modeling studies and field studies are needed to determine if the cold water can stay at the surface long enough to significantly affect a hurricane. Furthermore, simply cooling the ocean may have no effect on a hurricane, if the storm is in a favorable upper-atmospheric environment with low wind shear.

Financial issues
Any hurricane modification effort is going to be tremendously expensive. The cost of the array of cooling pumps proposed by Atmocean in 2006 for the Gulf of Mexico was pegged at $2.4 billion. Gates' scheme would have a similar cost. He proposes paying for it through government funding and the sale of insurance policies in hurricane-prone areas.

Environmental issues
A large change to the ocean temperatures over a wide area of ocean is bound to have significant--and unknown--impacts on fisheries and wildlife. Regional weather patterns may also be affected, intensifying droughts or bringing heavy rains and flooding.

Legal issues
Hurricanes naturally make sudden unpredictable course shifts, and the hurricane modification efforts are also capable of causing track shifts in a storm. Residents on the coast hit by the modified storm will want to sue, and there will be many lawyers more than happy to take their case. Gates would have to get special legislation passed to protect his company from lawsuits, such Congress passed for the gun industry in 2006.

Summary
In summary, we simply don't know enough about hurricanes yet to safely engage in modifying them. A lot more research is needed before we should spend the huge sums needed to attempt hurricane modification. The Department of Homeland Security has a $1 million research effort going that will attempt to answer some of these questions, called HURRMIT (The Identification and Testing of Hurricane Mitigation Hypotheses). The HURRMIT program is evaluating the potential of a number of hurricane modification techniques, including:

Seeding with tiny hygroscopic aerosols to suppress warm rain (Rosenfeld et al. 2007 and Cotton et al., 2007)

Seeding with radiation-absorbing aerosols (i.e., carbon black) at the storm periphery (Gray et al., 1976)

Seeding with radiation-absorbing aerosols (i.e., carbon black) at storm top (Alamaro et al., 2006)

Pumping cool water from the depths to the ocean surface in front of the hurricane (Ginis and Kithil, 2008)

Frankly, I'm dubious that the money being spent on HURRMIT is worth it, given the four huge obstacles to hurricane modification I presented above. However, the research may provide some new insights into hurricane intensification that we don't have now.

For more insight on this issue, read the Washington Post article published on this subject earlier this year.

In closing, I'll present the proposal one reader of an New Orleans online newspaper had:

"[Bill Gates] should just have one of his employees write an ActiveX Script for Google maps so we can just highlight the hurricane, right click on it, then select delete. Or maybe just cut and paste it farther out into the Atlantic Ocean."

Controlling hurricanes, Hollywood style
Hollywood's latest attempt to create a weather disaster epic is itself a disaster, as many of you who suffered through last night's installment of "The Storm" miniseries on NBC will agree. The uninspired plot involves government/military bad guys and a noble scientist who heroically tries to save the world, with a good measure of made-for-TV chase scenes, murders, and special effects thrown in. The hero scientist Dr. Jonathan Kirk (James Van Der Beek) has a scheme whereby one can control the weather by bouncing crackling streams of energy from a ground-based array of dishes off of satellites and into the ionosphere, which then gets "peeled away like an onion". Dr. Kirk then uses the energy to bring life-giving rains to the Sudan, and to steer a hurricane away from Florida. The trouble is, he doesn't quite have things figured out. Unintended side effects occur, such as the Mojave Desert getting 8 inches of snow the day after 112°F temperatures. More problematically, the hurricane heading for Florida strengthens instead of weakening. In one scene, a radar animation of the hurricane off the coast of Florida shows the powerful storm spinning clockwise instead of counter-clockwise, defying the laws of physics. Hmm, that's some pretty powerful weather control technology! The scientific basis for the weather control scheme is preposterous--ground-based energy streams beamed into the ionosphere would not appreciably affect the weather. The weather is made in the troposphere, the layer of atmosphere closest to the ground. Furthermore, the amount of energy needed to cause the kind of disturbances portrayed in the movie are enormous, similar in scale to the entire electrical output of the world. A small array of ground-based dishes could only channel perhaps a trillionth of the amount of energy required. The movie's special effects are cheesy, the acting average, the plot weak, and the science behind the the story completely implausible, making this weather disaster movie as disastrous as the equally rotten Day After Tomorrow movie. The movie's main redeeming grace is as a cautionary tale--weather modification on a large scale will certainly have unintended side effects, and we should not engage in such efforts until we have a much greater understanding of how the weather and climate work.

Scientific American has an interesting article that talks about the proposed Bill Gates hurricane modification idea in more detail.
Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting Patrap:
More good news Ike..

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
347 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2009

.SHORT TERM...
STORMS TODAY WERE QUITE ATYPICAL WITH LITTLE INFLUENCE FROM GULF
BREEZE AND MORE SYNOPTICALLY DRIVEN FROM A MESOCYCLONIC CONVECTIVE
VORTEX THAT DROPPED INTO THE BASE OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH THAT HAS
BEEN PERSISTENT OVER THE REGION. THIS PARTICULAR FEATURE GENERATED
EXTENSIVE HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE ARKLATEX LAST NIGHT WITH P.W.
LEVELS RUNNING ABOUT 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS HIGHER THAN NORMAL FOR
THIS DATE. A GROWING CONCERN IS A DEVELOPING EAST-WEST ORIENTED
BOUNDARY THAT IS CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM LIBERTY MS TO ABOUT
SIMMESPORT. THIS MAY BECOME A NEW FOCUS FOR EXTENSIVE TRAINING
ECHO RAINFALL FOR THE NEXT 2-4 HOURS BUT THE LIFT MECHANISM SHOULD
BE EJECTING EASTWARD AND LIMIT THE DURATION SOMEWHAT. DEBATED OVER
THE ISSUANCE OF A FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA BUT OPTED
TO HOLD OFF BUT CONTINUAL MONITORING WILL BE WARRANTED ALONG THIS
LINE THIS EVENING. MODELS SHOW THE AIRMASS BECOMING FLUSHED OF THE
HIGHER P.W. AIR SO RAIN CHANCES LOWERED TO 50 PERCENT FOR
WEDNESDAY. BROAD SCALE TROUGHING OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. WITH THE
BASE JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL CREATE SITUATIONS
CONDUCIVE FOR WEAK DISTURBANCES TO GRAZE THE FORECAST AREA IN
UPCOMING DAYS BUT TIMING SUCH FEATURES WILL BE A CHALLENGE. WHILE
SURFACE BASED BERMUDA RIDGE FLOW ATTEMPTS TO BECOME STEADY
STATE...THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH PERTURBATIONS IN THE UPPER
PATTERN TO CAUSE DAY-TO-DAY VARIABILITY IN CONVECTIVE
MODES...EITHER GULF BREEZE DOMINATED OR CONTINENTAL NORTWEST FLOW
DISTURBANCE GENERATED OR COMBINATION OF THE TWO.

.LONG TERM...
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST SHOULD PERSIST INTO THE LONG TERM PERIOD
THOUGH MODELS ARE TRYING TO RESOLVE UNSEASONABLE LONG WAVE
TROUGHING THAT MAY USHER ANOTHER OUT OF SEASON COLD FRONT INTO THE
GULF STATES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THIS TIME WILL MAINTAIN NEAR
NORMAL DAILY RAIN CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES EACH DAY FRIDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY.


no way that came from NWS..lol
Incredible amounts of dry air across the Atlantic basin. I'm expecting one or more of the current waves will have to sacrifice themselves to moisten the place... 13N/50W, I'm looking at YOU. If not that one, then 10N/32W.

There are certain individuals on this blog who seem to be here for the sole purpose of jumping down other people's throats and taking their posts to mean something they did not. That's pretty sad, but just to head them off at the pass, let it be clear that I do not think we'll have more than half the number of storms that we had in 2005. But the dry air and dust from that year were pretty intense, and I see that aspect of '05 as an analog for this year. The waves that became Irene and Kat***a suffered through dust, and Irene probably dissipated one night from the dryness before regenerating. Waves remained waves across much of the Atlantic but exploded once they found favorable conditions.
Quoting Patrap:
"AGW" ...say it aint so..


LOL


lol Don't lol me for this but, what is "AGW"?

is it anthropogeneic Global Warming or AGlobal-warming.

A- prefix means Not or without.



Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
a little warm there big fish may have to put ya on some ice


I believe the proper term for the weather here would be.... Hotter then H E Double Hockey Sticks
we got your weather and you got ours nice little flip i would say
1507. Patrap
LPStormspotter



Its the NOLA NWS Slidell sport




and your "Vary" wrong to go there..with that kinda slander.
Quoting futuremet:


lol Don't lol me for this but, what is "AGW"?

is it anthropogeneic Global Warming or AGlobal-warming.

A- prefix means Not or without.



Apples, Grapes, Waffles?
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
we got your weather and you got ours nice little flip i would say


I am not made for this kind of weather... trade?
Quoting RMM34667:


YEAH.. got the image. Now.. Can someone tell me about the green line.. Seabreeze? and Do you think it will produce thunderstorms?


If you go to the Nexrad radar and look at the 124 nm loop that you will see the thunderstorms that caused that.. I subscribe and get a 40 image loop.. the freebie 6 image loop will no longer show it.

Tampa radar
Quoting sebastianflorida:
Hickory hickory dock
there will not be a storm til oct
perhaps it will be a 5
but probably just a lie


Hickory dickory dock
It’s now near 6 o clock
I’m looking here I’m looking there
And can’t find storms anywhere..
I come on here in hopes to find
A swirl that just might blow our minds.


Just thought i would help out
Quoting PensacolaDoug:




You make a good point about ships keeping good records. But you don't really believe that every storm was detected back then do ya?


I'm not so sure they were not all detected back then...especially in the Atlantic.

1914 - Airplanes were a brand new technology and the first transatlantic crossing was still many years away. Lots of people though, moving across the Atlantic.

How? By ships of course!

How many ships? Well, if you take into account slave trade...many thousands I would guess.
Quoting Patrap:
LPStormspotter



Its the NOLA NWS Slidell sport




and your "Vary" wrong to go there..with that kinda slander.


LOL i thought you were kidding... LMAO
1515. Patrap
Now you stand corrected.."Plllllllllllllllttttt"

1516. NRAamy
Hickory dickory dock

who are you...Andrew Dice Clay?
In terms you'll know with ease.
When it comes to a hurricane breeze.
You'll feel the wrath
If your in the path
Of a bunch of tumbled down trees!
Waves seems to be regenerating

I love this shot; it shows us how huge Africa is.

Quoting NRAamy:
Hickory dickory dock

who are you...Andrew Dice Clay?


lol
South East of Houston
people are starting to unravel
1511 that green line on radar is starting to form thunderstorms as we speak. right over my house here in z-hills
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
people are starting to unravel


We are starting to loose our minds..

Come on come on its Hurricane time...
If you're likely to gag and languish
Due to lack of hurricane-caused anguish
Then sit and just think
It may be the brink
Of storms that only trouble dang fish.
Quoting Patrap:
Now you stand corrected.."Plllllllllllllllttttt"



lol Are you talking to me Pat.

"AGW" just confuses me that's all (a reasonable way)
Quoting CycloneOz:
If you're likely to gag and languish
Due to lack of hurricane-caused anguish
Then sit and just think
It may be the brink
Of storms that only trouble dang fish.

Were having way to much fun with this..
No tropical activity has seemed to cause blog fever.
1527. NRAamy
"AGW"....Al Gore Wackos....
"Prepare" is the word you'll hear
From all who know hurricanes fear.
Don't sit back and wait
For there's a terrible fate
If you've not stocked up on plenty of beer.
1529. IKE
Quoting NRAamy:
"AGW"....Al Gore Wackos....


"You call?"

When the wind begins to blow
There is one thing we will surely know
It wont be September
but it might be December
And it'll be mixing with snow.
1531. IKE
Poems that rhyme, on the blogs...

What a life!
1532. NRAamy
can someone draw a bullseye on that photo, please?
Quoting IKE:


"You call?"



Carbon Tax lol

Al Gore Wacko's!!!


LOL!
I love it!
Quoting NRAamy:
"AGW"....Al Gore Wackos....


AMEN!!! lol
1536. NRAamy
Pensacola....didn't your avatar used to be a cow stuffed toy on a dashboard?
Quoting IKE:
Poems that rhyme, on the blogs...

What a life!
it tells ya one thing there is nothing going on thats for sure
Quoting NRAamy:
"AGW"....Al Gore Wackos....


LOL

but what is the common meaning?

Anthropogenic or Aglobal-warming
Anxiety and stress on the rise
And the cause is a big surprise!
We need a storm bad
Yet there's none to be had
Oh curses to those 1016 Highs!
This hurricane season seems sick
Old Mother nature is playing a trick
But the blogs so much calmma
Without all the drama
come on now let's here your limerick!
Quoting NRAamy:
Pensacola....didn't your avatar used to be a cow stuffed toy on a dashboard?



Seriously?
Nope not me.
Wife and I is only one I've ever had.
1542. IKE
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
it tells ya one thing there is nothing going on thats for sure


18Z GFS gives hope at 372 hours...

Quoting futuremet:


LOL

but what is the common meaning?

Anthropogenic or Aglobal-warming


HERES THE LIST PICK ONE

Acronym Definition
AGW Anthropogenic Global Warming
AGW Anti-Global Warming
AGW Access Gateway
AGW Atmospheric Gravity Waves
AGW Art Gallery of Windsor (Ontario, Canada)
AGW All Going Well
AGW Accelerated Global Warming
AGW Actual Gold Weight
AGW Application Gateway (telecom)
AGW Alt.Games.Warbirds (forum)
AGW Actual Gross Weight
AGW American Wire Gauge
AGW Automatic Girth Welder
AGW Autonomous Guided Weapon
AGW Allowable Gross Weight
AGW Anganwadi Worker (India)
AGW Accident Generated Water
1544. NRAamy
Weather weenies abound
when no storms are to be found
they try to be funny
while dabbing noses that are runny
it's a really disturbing sound
1545. NRAamy
hmmm.....I wonder who it was....someone with Pensacola in their name....it was a cool avatar...
Quoting IKE:


18Z GFS gives hope at 372 hours...

yeah if your desperate
Quoting IKE:


18Z GFS gives hope at 372 hours...



It is developing the wave around the CV Islands and hanging onto it for longer now than before. Both do dissipate eventually though.
There once was a hurricane bug
who landed on dear old Doug
He climbed up my chest
I thought he stopped to rest
but he only needed a hug.
NAMMY maybe right, vorticity has been increasing with teh 50w wave.

FIM model shows increasing precipitation over the eastern carib.
I just went thru a storm here in Mobile that felt like a tropical storm.
My respects for Al Gore, for sure ! A great humanitarian. His negative points, haven't safed the US and the world from the worst years in recent history.
Quoting stormsurge39:
I just went thru a storm here in Mobile that felt like a tropical storm.


I know how ya feel I am out here in Satsuma and it's been storming really bad and the wind howling.

Sheri
Quoting stormsurge39:
I just went thru a storm here in Mobile that felt like a tropical storm.

Yea that was the line I was talking about early in southern MS. It was pretty nasty. Had a few tornado warnings out when it passed by. Good stuff.
Hey sheri, Have you been in any real storms? technically i live in semmes.
Wave around 10/32 seems to firing some convection this evening.By the way, Try and ease Al Gore. I'm not an American, but I'm pro American, if the USA sneezes we catch the cold, regardless of his thoughts on global warming right or wrong, if he had been President for last 8 years I have a feeling we would have been living in better world today with better times, just my personal opinion.
Quoting futuremet:
NAMMY maybe right, vorticity has been increasing with teh 50w wave.

FIM model shows increasing precipitation over the eastern carib.


pretty dry right now
Quoting stormpetrol:
Wave around 10/32 seems to firing some convection this evening.By the way, Try and ease Al Gore. I'm not an American, but I'm pro American, if the USA sneezes we catch the cold, regardless of his thoughts on global warming right or wrong, if he had been President for last 8 years I have a feeling we would have been living in better world today with better times, just my personal opinion.


I agree
These strong thunderstorms that pop up during the day can be exciting.
Quoting IKE:


18Z GFS gives hope at 372 hours...

CMC gives hope at 34567 hrs
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


pretty dry right now


It is very dry air. This is why I am puzzled why the NAM develops this. The GFS shows it becoming an open inverted trough in the caribbean, which is in harmony with FIM.
OK.. this isn't even close to funny anymore :(

1563. aquak9
a little local action



Quoting Orcasystems:
OK.. this isn't even close to funny anymore :(



Wow... only 25% humidity?? You're lucky man.

it get's better and better
Quoting Stoopid1:


Wow... only 25% humidity?? You're lucky man.


Ummm did you see the other number???
This is Victoria BC.. not Death Valley.
Dry air...it sucks out the life
Of waves that might cause us great strife
They look good off the land
But quickly turn bland
And that puts a smile on my wife! :)
if al gore was president he'd have everything taking nutra thin america could use it
Technology is such a great thing
From space, our imagery is like bling
We can see to tomorrow
And that causes us sorrow
No storms means no fun and no fling!
Quoting Orcasystems:
OK.. this isn't even close to funny anymore :(

looks like orca burgers for everyone
Canarys will die in a mine
And dogs howl when things aren't so fine
But when it comes to TCs
The warning's a breeze
On steroids, and oh so unkind.
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2009

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS TRAVERSING THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ALONG 23W S
OF 24N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. THIS WAVE COINCIDES WITH A BROAD
MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE BASED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER PRODUCT FROM CIMSS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF
THE WAVE AXIS. AN UNRELATED 1011 MB LOW HAPPENS TO BE W OF THE
WAVE AXIS NEAR 16N28W IN A VERY DRY AIRMASS. NO SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION OR SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 51W S OF 17N MOVING W 15-20 KT. THIS
WAVE COINCIDES WITH A BROAD MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE BASED
ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT FROM CIMSS. ALSO...
RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES CYCLONIC TURNING OF LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS NEAR THIS WAVE. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF
THE AXIS.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 78W S OF 19N MOVING W NEAR 25 KT. THIS
WAVE COINCIDES WITH A WELL-DEFINED MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE BASED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT FROM
CIMSS. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES AN INVERTED-V PATTERN
OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. STABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ARE INHIBITING DEEP CONVECTION NEAR
THIS WAVE. HOWEVER...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE W OF JAMAICA FROM
18N-20N BETWEEN 76W-80W
Quoting Orcasystems:
OK.. this isn't even close to funny anymore :(



man when you see canada in the 100's you know somethings up..

and here in central GA sitting at 76 degrees.. 16 degrees below normal today. humidity is only at 79% also. average is around the low 80's
Quoting stormsurge39:
Hey sheri, Have you been in any real storms? technically i live in semmes.


Yes i have. Some bad ones at that. How is it out there in Semmes?

Sheri

Discussions abound, the same views
On forecast conditions, it's old news
The tropics are dead
So let's put this to bed
'Dees rhymes 'dey be causin' the blues
Since your all rhyming before.. heres from earlier before lol:

The "season" has arrived this year,
When circular wind patterns do appear,
Off Africa's coast where palm trees sway
In the gentle breeze that builds each day.

Occasionally the winds grow strong,
And form a loose ring that moves along
The Mid-Atlantic from East to West,
As if searching for a place to rest.

A cloudy shape that we recognize
As slowly it begins to organize.
A floating wheel of wind and rain,
Can this be the birth of a hurricane?

Over the Atlantic's open space,
The misty mass begins to race,
Currents and temperatures form an equation
Including atmospheric variation.

The spin of the earth, the changing tide,
All have their effect on this westward ride.
Over water the clouds grow thicker,
And airspeed's also slightly quicker.

Weather satellites up in the sky
Have been following this mass to identify
Its path, its density and wind velocity.
Now we rely on meteorologic precocity.

The word goes out, they identify
A loosely organized circle with a definite eye,
It's moving slowly, four to six miles at most,
And is heading for the South American coast.

"Not to worry" they say, it's far out to sea,
Just the first of several that are likely to be.
But there is no telling where might it go,
And a chance it could cause quite a blow!

We can't discount the little blip
Radar follows on its Atlantic trip.
Prepare to act if it turns our way,
Plan to survive for another day.

There is a blogger named Oz
Who cares a lot for the cause
When no storms transpired
His hopes had expired
So he put his poems on pause
:)
Looks like things may be changing soon in the tropics....

Link
Just a joke Oz...that's pretty good how you can come up with those so quick!
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
There is a blogger named Oz
Who cares a lot for the cause
When no storms transpired
His hopes had expired
So he put his poems on pause
:)


LOL...and yes! I have paused! :D
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Just a joke Oz...that's pretty good how you can come up with those so quick!


No! Don't be apologetic! :)

My wife's been reading my work as I've cranked it out. Yours evoked a hardy laugh from her. Mine just drew smiles.

Tough rhyming scheme you chose! WTG! :)
Based on local weather, and the fact that wind shear and dry air are still around but expected to reduce somewhat, I'd say things will pick up by mid-August and get good and regular after that.

I would not make any predictions, but to say that things may be worse this year than many expect.
So check it out.....

We be ryhming, rapping, singin all day,

Look at the atlintic not a single wave,

One more day of this bloggers will be put into a grave,

Now Im going to the bar with a buddy named Dave!

Bye guys going to the watering hole, be back la8er. :)
Quoting bajelayman2:
Based on local weather, and the fact that wind shear and dry air are still around but expected to reduce somewhat, I'd say things will pick up by mid-August and get good and regular after that.

I would not make any predictions, but to say that things may be worse this year than many expect.


Could be....may be nothing now and pretty soon we may hearing evacuation notices.....wonder who will get them??
1587. Ossqss
The poems abound
with no cyclones around
We all look right in
while scratching our chin
What do we see?
Is that poem from me?
Quoting TexasHurricane:


Could be....may be nothing now and pretty soon we may hearing evacuation notices.....wonder who will get them??


I always remember Wilma, going from a 60kt Tropical Storm to a 160kt Cat 5 monster in 24 hours...
Was Wilma also quite wide, or am I thinking of another?
Quoting hurricanefiend85:


I always remember Wilma, going from a 60kt Tropical Storm to a 160kt Cat 5 monster in 24 hours...


yeah, I also remeber seeing something the other day about a storm that formed in the Gulf (years ago) and reached cat 5 status.... The Gulf is not that much room considering the Atlantic. Just shows you never know how quick and strong they will grow....Always keep an eye on the tropics....
Yeah, Wilma (2005) was enormous. I believe it was technically the strongest Atlantic hurricane on record with an estimated pressure of 882 and also had something like a 2 mile wide eye at one point which was the smallest on record before widening to nearly 40 miles across.
1592. amd
Quoting bajelayman2:
Was Wilma also quite wide, or am I thinking of another?


Wilma became a very wide storm after leaving Florida, I think.
Just look at these invests,
It doesn't make any sense,
They aren't doing any better
Than my investments.
2009 is such a bad year,
Well, I'm off again,
To drink some more beer.
Wilma Radar Link...

1596. Greyelf
Quoting NRAamy:
can someone draw a bullseye on that photo, please?


A "Stoopid" circle would work too.
Ah, she was. That link from Texashurricane shows a (sorry) rather beautiful formation, no?
DHAKA, Bangladesh (July 28, 2009)—Deadly flooding produced by the heaviest rain to fall in the capital city of Bangladesh in a half-century has stranded thousands in their homes.

Thirteen inches of rain fell in just 12 hours, the most in a single day since 1956, the national weather office said.

Power lines snapped, killing at least six people.

Schools in flooded areas were closed.
i have noted that the WunderPoll is fixs
Still can't believe how much of the Gulf Ike took up...

Link
Blog Update
Reflector site for those at work, which includes Weather456, daily update.


AOI

AOI
What I found amazing in Ike, among the many things was the cargo ship that rode the storm due to dead engines(that was Ike right?) and the crew all survived.

The engineers and building company should be proud, of the structure at least.
We must stop the ryhmes
As we are running out of time
Before I spend my very last dime
to prepare for what will be mine
And that won't be fine
Cause It'll cause me to dine
One can at a time
And my tree without limes
Flew far behindhink the wind blew
Into the windows
Of the 5 and dime
Oh that little storm
It just blew my mind
Now I can't find
My street sign
I think the wind blew it
Far into time
I'm complaining to my wife
Who usually always shines
Now our home
We can't find
My whole entire life
Thinks it is on rewind
Oh that little storm
Without a spine
It kicked me hard
In the behind
1604. JustWx
Quoting IKE:


"You call?"


I was just wondering....if all of the GW/CC changes are implemented...and all of the carbon reductions take place...wouldn't that cure the Earth's fever. So, Bill Gates and his coolwater boats would not be needed. The oceans would cool as we turn back the "warming". This would in fact kill the tropics...Right?
1606. SLU


enjoy the quiet period without complaints cuz you may just get more than you bargained for pretty soon.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Wilma Radar Link...


HEY thats me!In Boca Raton and that is my avatar picture too lol!
The 2nd 3rd of the season is starting
And the season long calm ain't parting
I promised to pause
But hey, I'm the Oz!
So I'll just sit here and rhyme as I'm _arting.
any baseball fans see what beuhrle did? retired 44 batters in a row before giving up his first hit... jeeeeez
58 of 183 days completed.
31.6% of hurricane season completed
1612. 10Speed
Sorry ... duplicate!


Quoting TexasHurricane:
Looks like things may be changing soon in the tropics....

Link

AWESOME!!! Makes me cry tears of joy! :)
There once was a storm named Camille
That came really close to Mobile.
But as if for the sport
She blew through Gulfport
And left it looking like $*#t on a heel.
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

it get's better and better

I'm bewildered and befalled! :o
Years later came a 'cane named Ike.
That challenged a seawall, a dike.
The suffering it caused
Made many take pause
'Twas a storm with ease to dislike.
1617. Patrap
Throwing limericks around like they were TWC Storm Stories brings back alot of grief for many who lost family to the Storms so lamented in narrative prose.

Easy to do when youve never had to corral the dead,..or leave them behind to go find the living.

Food for thought
Quoting CycloneOz:
There once was a storm named Camille
That came really close to Mobile.
But as if for the sport
She blew through Gulfport
And left it looking like $*#t on a heel.


There was a young man from Madras
Whose #$%^

Well, on second thought, perhaps not LOL
The inactivity across pacific basin eastern and western has me baffled. SAL still plaquing the atlantic tropics.

Adrian
Now we hope for something named Ana
To come as if it were manna.
To the skies we look
But our heads we all shook
"Hey that wave, did it slip on a banana?"
Quoting CycloneOz:
Now we hope for something named Ana
To come as if it were manna.
To the skies we look
But our heads we all shook
"Hey that wave, did it slip on a banana?"

LOL!!!! Perfect :)
(Singing to "Pop Goes the Weezel")POOF! Goes the Circles.

Link
@Patrap: +1; lotsa scrolling down I've been doing as late.
Quoting hurricane23:
The inactivity across pacific basin eastern and western has me baffled. SAL still plaquing the atlantic tropics.

Adrian


My take on this season is 9 systems, possibly 4 majors in the 11 week period from August 1st to 21st October and then for the season to shut down.
1626. Patrap
Hey! There are some Fine poets in here tonight
But some of them I fear are a blight
When they wishcast a west-track
And say NHC is on crack
They just prove that no one is right.
I'm getting tired...this my last one...

To the bloggers who are wishcasters
By no means any forecasters
Your posts are demeaning
In no way redeeming
For you wish for ultimate disasters
Quoting Patrap:
Throwing limericks around like they were TWC Storm Stories brings back alot of grief for many who lost family to the Storms so lamented in narrative prose.

Easy to do when youve never had to corral the dead,..or leave them behind to go find the living.

Food for thought


Understood...but there is a flip side.

For example, under your constraints, is this an appropriate rhyme?:

Well, in eighteen-fourteen we took a little trip
Along with Colonel Jackson down the mighty Mississip
We took a little bacon and we took a little beans
And we caught the bloody British at the town of New Orleans.

[Chorus]
We fired our guns and the British kept a-comin'
There wasn't nigh as many as there was a while ago
We fired once more and they all began a-runnin'
Down the Mississippi to the Gulf of Mexico

Well we eye-balled the river and we see the Limeys come
Musta been a hunnert of 'em beatin' on a drum
And then they stepped so high and they made the bugles ring
We hid behind our cotton bales and didn't say a thing

[Chorus]
We fired our guns and the British kept a-comin'
There wasn't nigh as many as there was a while ago
We fired once more and they all began a-runnin'
Down the Mississippi to the Gulf of Mexico

Now, Old Hickory says we can take 'em by surprise
If we don't shoot our wads 'til we look 'em in the eyes
So we held off our fire 'til we see them real well
Then we opened up our squirrel guns and really gave 'em hell

[Chorus]
We fired our guns and the British kept a-comin'
There wasn't nigh as many as there was a while ago
We fired once more and they all began a-runnin'
Down the Mississippi to the Gulf of Mexico

[The chorus (the singers) sings this verse.]
Well, they ran through the briars and they ran through the brambles
And they ran through the bushes where the rabbits couldn't go
Ran so fast that the hounds couldn't catch 'em
Down the Mississippi to the Gulf of Mexico.

[Back to C.W.]
Well, we fired our cannon 'til the barrel melted down
So we grabbed an alligator and we turned his tail around
We stuffed his head with cannon balls and powdered his behind
And when we lit the fuse that old gator blew his mind

[Chorus]
We fired our guns and the British kept a-comin'
There wasn't nigh as many as there was a while ago
We fired once more and they all began a-runnin'
Down the Mississippi to the Gulf of Mexico

[The chorus (the singers) sings this verse.]
Well, they ran through the briars and they ran through the brambles
And they ran through the bushes where the rabbits couldn't go
Ran so fast that the hounds couldn't catch 'em
Down the Mississippi to the Gulf of Mexico.

[Okay, the singing's over.]
Hup, hip, trip, four.
You know, you old boys gonna be marchin' right smart, onced* you learn to count to four.

Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:
any baseball fans see what beuhrle did? retired 44 batters in a row before giving up his first hit... jeeeeez


Thats insane if you understand baseball...wow
I agree with Pat, at first they were clever, but the poems are getting really old now
1632. surfmom
Quoting kmanislander:


My take on this season is 9 systems, possibly 4 majors in the 11 week period from August 1st to 21st October and then for the season to shut down.

I'll sit under this tree
Good to see you Kman
Love that song Pat
1634. Patrap
As they mock the past,..it waits.
As they recount with Humor,it stays silent.

Those that were lost,havent a voice,
Those that are gone,havent their choice.

Forever silent,..forever mourned,



Lost to the Hurricane,..they stay silent.

Now your warned.
Quoting TampaSpin:


Thats insane if you understand baseball...wow


yeah, new record
Hi Surfmom...haven't seen you on lately...How are you and the family doing?
1637. Patrap
..G'night
Quoting kmanislander:


My take on this season is 9 systems, possibly 4 majors in the 11 week period from August 1st to 21st October and then for the season to shut down.


Would either one of the four major canes that you just mentioned right now KMan be any land threaters?
kinda like a romper room in here
1640. surfmom
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
kinda like a romper room in here

I just felt a cooooooooling wind -- you have such a chilling presence ; )
later pat
Quoting surfmom:

I'll sit under this tree
Good to see you Kman


Hi there.

Any space under that tree ?? LOL

This season is similar IMO to others that started slow, ended soon, and had very intense activity condensed into a few weeks.

Water temps will be high as well as the TCHP due to the lack of upwelling from non-existent systems as well as trade winds that have slowed.

I don't like it.
1643. hydrus
There once was hurricane named charley,who made of all our trees very knarley,it only lasted an hour,but hit with catagory four power,and all that was left was my harley.
1644. surfmom
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Hi Surfmom...haven't seen you on lately...How are you and the family doing?

Enjoying summer- Youngbuck playing polo in kentucky, diver -working Tampa Bay - me --quietly looking for waves.
the living should
respect the dead.
for one day the living
will be the dead
Quoting surfmom:

I just felt a cooooooooling wind -- you have such a chilling presence ; )


Cold wind??? gimme
Quoting WeatherStudent:


Would either one of the four major canes that you just mentioned right now KMan be any land threaters?


I try to stay away from " predicting " where systems will landfall but obviously anything entering the Caribbean this year has a very good chance of becoming a major and with all the troughs we have seen recurvature would favour a threat to places like the central Caribbean and the East coast IMO.

Time will tell
1648. surfmom
I don't like it either Kman.... GOM by me is 90... a pleasure not to have to wear a wetsuit... but it's just waiting for a flashpoint
Read my Camille and Ike posts again, if you choose.

I never mocked the dead.

My rhymes were nothing more than factual.

You've read things into them that are not there...and are blaming me for saying things I didn't say.

You tell me what Gulfport looked like after Camille. And how disliked was Hurricane Ike?
1650. surfmom
Quoting Orcasystems:


Cold wind??? gimme


are you HOT AIR??? *giggle* By the looks of your bizarre temps....up in your neighborhood (CANADA 101 DEGREES) --maybe you're the culprit?
Quoting kmanislander:


I try to stay away from " predicting " where systems will landfall but obviously anything entering the Caribbean this year has a very good chance of becoming a major and with all the troughs we have seen recurvature would favour a threat to places like the central Caribbean and the East coast IMO.

Time will tell


thanks for your input, sir, it's greatly appreciated it by moi.
Quoting kmanislander:


Hi there.

Any space under that tree ?? LOL

This season is similar IMO to others that started slow, ended soon, and had very intense activity condensed into a few weeks.

Water temps will be high as well as the TCHP due to the lack of upwelling from non-existent systems as well as trade winds that have slowed.

I don't like it.


I dont like it either, I am glad you are being realistic. All this built up energy will be released over the next three months. I look at 1955 as a season that we could see happen.

First actual storm formed July 31st, last one dissipated October 19th. The season had 10 named storms and 2 unnamed storms for 12 total (I dont count Alice, since it formed in 1954), 9 Hurricanes and 6 Major Hurricanes. US was hit by 5 storms; 2 in the Gulf (Brenda and TS #5) and 3 Hurricanes on the East Coast (Connie, Diane and Ione). The Caribbean was hit by 3 storms as well.(Hilda, Katie and Janet.) While Mexico was hit by Gladys.

I think that season could be very close to what we have now, but a few less Majors (4 instead of 6) and maybe 1 or 2 less storms. Those storms come off the beginning as our first named storm could occur around August 10th.
Quoting WeatherStudent:


Would either one of the four major canes that you just mentioned right now KMan be any land threaters?
no one can tell that its in the hands of nature and its forces which will dictade where it goes
there are clues but no for sure thing
Kman, how exactly extremely hot are TCHP readings currently around your neck of woods?
Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:


I dont like it either, I am glad you are being realistic. All this built up energy will be released over the next two months. I look at 1955 as a season that we could see happen.

First actual storm formed July 31st, last one dissipated October 19th. The season had 11 named storms (I dont count Alice, since it formed in 1954), 9 Hurricanes and 6 Major Hurricanes. US was hit by 5 storms; 2 in the Gulf and 3 Hurricanes on the East Coast. The Caribbean was hit by 3 storms as well.

I think that season could be very close to what we have now, but a few less Majors (4 instead of 6) and maybe 1 or 2 less storms. Those storms come off the beginning as our first named storm could occur around August 10th.


and if you think about it we also had the early stirrings in the atlantic with 90L and TD-01
evening kman
Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:


I dont like it either, I am glad you are being realistic. All this built up energy will be released over the next three months. I look at 1955 as a season that we could see happen.

First actual storm formed July 31st, last one dissipated October 19th. The season had 11 named storms (I dont count Alice, since it formed in 1954), 9 Hurricanes and 6 Major Hurricanes. US was hit by 5 storms; 2 in the Gulf and 3 Hurricanes on the East Coast. The Caribbean was hit by 3 storms as well.

I think that season could be very close to what we have now, but a few less Majors (4 instead of 6) and maybe 1 or 2 less storms. Those storms come off the beginning as our first named storm could occur around August 10th.


My thoughts as well. This is supposed to be our rainy season but for July I have only seen 2.05 inches on the SW side of Grand Cayman. The most for the rest of the Island is about 2.5 inches. Hot, dry and dusty when we should be having torrential rain. The Caribbean has had little if any TWave activity which will drive up water temps. I hate to say it but 2004 was just like this and then all hell broke loose.

Quoting WeatherStudent:
Kman, how exactly extremely hot are TCHP readings currently around your neck of woods?


I have not checked but the sea is like a hot tub here.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
evening kman


Hi there KOTG.

After the cool temps in Alaska I am having to adjust to being home again !
I also feel there is a realistic chance we see a Category 5 hurricane this season, due to how hot the waters on in some areas
hope ya dont catch a cold from changing climates so quickly
Sounds like a great trip you had Kman...could you see Russia from the ship? In all seriousness, I would love to take a cruise like that!


here is current sst maps for alt.basin as of jul 27 00z
Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:
I also feel there is a realistic chance we see a Category 5 hurricane this season, due to how hot the waters on in some areas


One 5, a 4 and two 3's. May sound high but if so I like Crow LOL
Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:
I also feel there is a realistic chance we see a Category 5 hurricane this season, due to how hot the waters on in some areas


With the right ingrediants in place...no doubt.
Quoting kmanislander:


One 5, a 4 and two 3's. May sound high but if so I like Crow LOL


Not high at all for someone who is realistic lol
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Sounds like a great trip you had Kman...could you see Russia from the ship? In all seriousness, I would love to take a cruise like that!


I didn't see Russia but did see Palin's home in Juneau. She was out of town LOL
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


With the right ingrediants in place...no doubt.


oh and just to add to it, it will be a top 10 Cat 5 as well, meaning it will be stronger than Ivan. Just my opinion; I hope it doesnt affect anyone at that intensity. I just have a feeling we will see that this season.
Agreed. The conditions in the Atlantic, and more so the Carib. and GOM are ripe. And will get more so. So far the t-waves have had no chance because of dry air. But how long can that persist?
good evening, keeps


here is current sst maps for alt.basin as of jul 27 00z
hello ws
1673. JRRP
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
hope ya dont catch a cold from changing climates so quickly


Actually the time changes were the worse. From Dallas to Vancouver, set your watch back 2 hrs. On the ship, set your watch back another hr from Vancouver to Alaska then set it forward again on the return trip. On arrival in Dallas to overnight on the way home, clocks forward 2 hours.

Really messes you up.
Quoting kmanislander:


One 5, a 4 and two 3's. May sound high but if so I like Crow LOL


you're saying all of this for a reason, kman. i believe you. you're level of credibility on here is astounding myself.
Quoting kmanislander:


Actually the time changes were the worse. From Houston to Vancouver, set your watch back 2 hrs. On the ship, set your watch back another hr from Vancouver to Alaska then set it forward again on the return trip. On arrival in Houston to overnight on the way home, clocks forward 2 hours.

Really messes you up.
Greetings from the wonderful campus of GeorgeTown Univsity anything brewing
Quoting kmanislander:


Hi there KOTG.

After the cool temps in Alaska I am having to adjust to being home again !


Hey I'm new here but i saw that and decided to talk. I just went on a cruise to alaska and i live in houston it took a long time for me to adjust back to this crazy heat we are getting
Quoting kmanislander:


I jsut went on a cruise to alaska and im from houston it took a long time to get readjusted to this crazy heat we are getting
Welcome, Mrnick.
Ace...read the previous posts to catch up... Some good poems on here!
time changes messes up the body few days ya will be doing better did ya rtn to work right away or ya got a few more extra days
Quoting WeatherStudent:


you're saying all of this for a reason, kman. i believe you. you're level of credibility on here is astounding myself.


None of this is written in stone my friend, just an opinion. However, mother nature produces hurricanes to redistribute heat from the tropics poleward. So far this year, that heat is still accumulating.
Thank you, I've been reading the posts for about a week now and decided I should try and learn a few things or two
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Ace...read the previous posts to catch up... Some good poems on here!

im at a leadership confrace in dc after being here for 2 days im actully thinking of appling to this nice university but as everone knows its tough to get into oh yah i will be pretty much unreachible for two weeks
Quoting mrnicktou:


Hey I'm new here but i saw that and decided to talk. I just went on a cruise to alaska and i live in houston it took a long time for me to adjust back to this crazy heat we are getting


Tell me about it. Overnighted at the airport Marriott last Saturday and could hardly breathe outside LOL
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


here is current sst maps for alt.basin as of jul 27 00z


Hey Keeper can I have a link to that please?
Quoting Acemmett90:

i at a leader ship canfrace in dc i im actully thinking of appling to this nice university but as everone knows its tough to get into oh ysh i will be preety much unreachible for two weeks


OMG....Your a product of the Florida school system.
Thank you very much for your TCHP maps, Keeps.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


OMG....Your a product of the Florida school system.

not used to this key board just got a tablit pc
Ace...I know what you mean...trust me.
So are the trolls biting tonight
Quoting kmanislander:


Tell me about it. Overnighted at the airport Marriott last Saturday and could hardly breathe outside LOL


I live in it its nasty. Ever since i came back ive been on here waiting for the next storm. I've learned so much and have found lots of links that i woulda never found its been fun learning about everything
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


Hey Keeper can I have a link to that please?
i sent it by email let me know if ya like it it has everything ya need all the goodies
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


here is current sst maps for alt.basin as of jul 27 00z

is that 32c+ in the majority of the GOM?
Quoting WeatherStudent:
Thank you very much for your TCHP maps, Keeps.
that is a sst map ws
yeah aussie 31.5 and rising
Quoting mrnicktou:


I live in it its nasty. Ever since i came back ive been on here waiting for the next storm. I've learned so much and have found lots of links that i woulda never found its been fun learning about everything


The blog will become very fast when the action starts and the trolls will come out. Fun though.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
yeah aussie 31.5 and rising


Here is something that will make you happy KOG

Add 4-5 to get the temp here
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Ace...I know what you mean...trust me.


Hi
Well I am out for tonight. Still on vacation until next Monday so catch you all tomorrow.

BFN
Quoting WeatherStudent:


Hi


Hi JFV...when is your b-day?
Quoting kmanislander:


The blog will become very fast when the action starts and the trolls will come out. Fun though.


Nice i never even noticed the blog last year when Ike was on its way or i woulda been here blogging it up with yall
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
that is a sst map ws


Thanks Keeper!
later kman sleep well friend


The spots in the centre of the GOM are pretty dark...
your welcome chaser
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Hi JFV...when is your b-day?


Aug 11th my friend.
The days they run altogether
With this predictable tropical weather
Right now, it's all O's (0,0,0)
And there's nothing on GOES
It's as mean as S&M leather.

Its actually rather alarming to see how much warmer the gulf is than previous active years.If a hurricane can get into the Gulf with the right conditions this year we could be looking at trouble.

2009:



This is pretty scary...
2005:
Quoting WeatherStudent:


Aug 11th my friend.


Do you think we will see Ana by then?
1714. Drakoen
GOM has too much energy built up. Nothing has tapped into that energy. We certainly don't need a storm in there especially one that goes over the loop current.
Try this one on for size lol

Even though seasons a bore
I cant stand the poems anymore
I dont want too seem cold
They are really getting old
I have to put Oz on ignore

just playing ;)
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Do you think we will see Ana by then?


yes, if not, i'll eat crow. yourself?
But just wait cause the weather will turn
As sure as the sun will still burn
In a few weeks we may see
Our first real TC
Imagine how much we will learn!
Quoting Drakoen:
GOM has too much energy built up. Nothing has tapped into that energy. We certainly don't need a storm in there especially one that goes over the loop current.
if conditions line up it will be a 5 for sure that we really don't want
Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:
Try this one on for size

Even though seasons a bore
I cant stand the poems anymore
I dont want too seem cold
They are really getting old
I have to be Oz on ignore


LOL...that's a good funny one!
Quoting Drakoen:
GOM has too much energy built up. Nothing has tapped into that energy. We certainly don't need a storm in there especially one that goes over the loop current.


God for bid, Drakoen.
High SST’s does not a storm make. There are so many other factors that have to come into play and so far, those factors have not metabolized.
well guys, guess what, next month i'm off to college. but hopefully i'll still be able to continue blogging from over there. especially, if anything heads my way by then.
1723. Drakoen
Quoting WeatherStudent:


God for bid, Drakoen.


yes God forbid WeatherStudenster!!!!
Quoting WeatherStudent:


yes, if not, i'll eat crow. yourself?


I have my crow in a slow cooker...I thought a named storm in July.
TCHP in the Gulf must be pretty high. Nothing has formed in the Gulf and its been exposed to full sun for quite a few months now. Lets hope the Atlantic stays quiet otherwise we may see some trouble later on. All we need is a favorable environment...

This is how much warmer the Gulf is when compared to 2005. Remember the Gulf produced two Category 5 hurricanes that year. Katrina and Rita.



Just one more and then it's good night
"Tunnels" end may yield up it's light
This season's no bust
So keep watchin' we must
'Cause a storm's start may be within sight.

'Night all! :)
I don't know if it was mentioned earlier, and I know you don't like TWC...but did anyone see the tropical update with Dr. Lyons talking about the cool water flow from the Canary Islands down toward the ITCZ and out to the West ? They had the water temps off Africa heading 1/4 to 1/3 of the wat to the islands in the 76 - 79 degree range. Mighty chilly for tropical development along with the stable conditions it causes with the warm/hot air aloft.
Quoting Drakoen:
GOM has too much energy built up. Nothing has tapped into that energy. We certainly don't need a storm in there especially one that goes over the loop current.


I was 30mile off shore last week and you could utterly feel the heat vapor coming off the water....it was unreal......don't recall feeling it like that ever...Then had the waverunners out latter and its even worse now....its like a sauna....i think i spelled that right.
Slightly off topic, but I was looking for a name for my solo music project, and one of the previous blogs provided the perfect name: Snowcloud Five.

http://www.myspace.com/snowcloudfive

Just made it a few minutes ago, I'll post music up within the week. Thanks, Dr. Masters for the whole story. :)
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
TCHP in the Gulf must be pretty high. Nothing has formed in the Gulf and its been exposed to full sun for quite a few months now. Lets hope the Atlantic stays quiet otherwise me may see some trouble later on. All we need is a favorable environment...

This is how much warmer the Gulf is when compared to 2005. Remember the Gulf produced two Category 5 hurricanes that year. Karina and Rita.





StormChaser thats some dam good analysis my friend......great job but very eye opening....wow
We acutally need a depression in the GOM to cool things down some...or we will be in big time trouble if something major tapps that first...
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
TCHP in the Gulf must be pretty high. Nothing has formed in the Gulf and its been exposed to full sun for quite a few months now. Lets hope the Atlantic stays quiet otherwise me may see some trouble later on.

This is how much warmer the Gulf is when compared to 2005. Remember the Gulf produced to Category 5 hurricanes that year. Karina and Rita.





Chaser may I please have a link to where you got that information.
So did that wave come off Africa yet?
Quoting SevereHurricane:


Chaser may I please have a link to where you got that information.


I second that....
Quoting TampaSpin:


StormChaser thats some dam good analysis my friend......great job but very eye opening....wow


Thing is that the Gulf is still clear with virtually no clouds over it so it should continue to warm into September...We may actually see the bulk of the season form closer to land this year instead of MDR development.

GOM Shortwave
Quoting TampaSpin:


StormChaser thats some dam good analysis my friend......great job but very eye opening....wow


I agree, It makes me nervous to think what would happen if a storm did find favorable Upper Level conditions in the Gulf of Mexico.
Quoting FloridaTigers:
So did that wave come off Africa yet?


Wave axis is still on the mainland.

chaser i gave it to you you can give it to them iam out for the night later all
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Its actually rather alarming to see how much warmer the gulf is than previous active years.If a hurricane can get into the Gulf with the right conditions this year we could be looking at trouble.

2009:



2008:


This is pretty scary...
2005:


Wow. All I can say is HOT DAMN!
Quoting Drakoen:
GOM has too much energy built up. Nothing has tapped into that energy. We certainly don't need a storm in there especially one that goes over the loop current.


Getting ready for our second round -both after dark. Must be some "Gulf Energy".
Patrap has a crow recipe, fit for late season.
The comparisons to 2004 make me shudder.
I don't like what's coming off of Afrika.CapeVerde
SAL is pretty much cleared out and shear is around 5 knots so that wave off of Africa only has the MJO going against it. Although that may be enough to hamper if not prohibit development.

1744. XL
Evening all

As the season seems to be hotting up (UK phrase - sorry) I would like to thank everyone in advance and apologise for the silly questions I am likely to ask.

Joanne
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
SAL is pretty much cleared out and shear is around 5 knots so that wave off of Africa only has the MJO going against it. Although that may be enough to hamper if not prohibit development.



And strong tropical waves can overcome a downward MJO
Nothing in the Gulf anytime soon..

Quoting Stormchaser2007:
SAL is pretty much cleared out and shear is around 5 knots so that wave off of Africa only has the MJO going against it.

plus a pocket of water temps in the 70s and stable air.
Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:


And strong tropical waves can overcome a downward MJO


Not so sure of that but we'll see. I give this a small chance at developing. Shear looks to lessen in its path later on.

Ya know what I'm sayin'?
ForGoodnessSake
Quoting hunkerdown:
plus a pocket of water temps in the 70s and stable air.


What SST map are you looking at? I dont really see temps that low...
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


What SST map are you looking at? I dont really see temps that low...


yea neither do I
Shears near 0-5 knots over the Cape Verde islands.

Quoting XL:
Evening all

As the season seems to be hotting up (UK phrase - sorry) I would like to thank everyone in advance and apologise for the silly questions I am likely to ask.

Joanne

Ask on, Joanne...there's usually someone here who is willing to answer you.
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


What SST map are you looking at? I dont really see temps that low...
img src="" alt="" />
1755. XL
Hi Chicklit

Thanks for that. I have had mainly positive experiences in here and find it a tremendouse resource.

Joanne
Looks like whatever's coming off of Africa has the all clear for SAL at least for now.

SplitView
And here...we...go.
Quoting hunkerdown:
img src="" alt="" />


I see Mid 80's. The waves 'center' appears to be a 12n 15W.
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


I see Mid 80's. The waves 'center' appears to be a 12n 15W.
sorry, the wave is not at 0 degrees
1761. amd
just looked at the buoys off the coast of africa: Waters seem to be warm enough as long as the disturbance stays below 12 degrees north.

Link

Unfortunately, we have no buoys near the cape verde islands to see what the water temperatures truly are at 15 degrees north off the coast of africa.



Not trying to be a downcaster, but lets see what happens when it rolls off. If I am wrong, than I am wrong (and wouldn't be the first). But if convection goes poof, with no SAL, then you might want to give creedence to what i am saying.
1763. GPTGUY
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
TCHP in the Gulf must be pretty high. Nothing has formed in the Gulf and its been exposed to full sun for quite a few months now. Lets hope the Atlantic stays quiet otherwise we may see some trouble later on. All we need is a favorable environment...

This is how much warmer the Gulf is when compared to 2005. Remember the Gulf produced two Category 5 hurricanes that year. Katrina and Rita.





I suspect the big difference in sst in the Western Gulf from 2005 to 2009 is because Hurricane Emily had just passed through that portion of the Western Gulf about a week ago back in '05 and upwelled cooler waters.
Quoting hunkerdown:
sorry, the wave is not at 0 degrees


What? Its the one about to exit the coast...check the coordinates and use it to find the SST on the other map.


It's not even even the Cape Verde season and that is what we are hitching our wagons to? Give the season time people.
I'm really nervous about the next couple of weeks, quite frankly.
I think Hurricane Central is in Alert Mode.
SSTs are enough for fueling a low.
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


What? Its the one about to exit the coast...check the coordinates and use it to find the SST on the other map.


And I am seeing temps below or at very best, near 80...nowhere near the mid 80s you are proclaiming. Lets just sit, watch, and wait. As I said in post 1762...
Quoting GPTGUY:


I suspect the big difference in sst in the Western Gulf from 2005 to 2009 is because Hurricane Emily had just passed through that portion of the Western Gulf about a week ago back in '05 and upwelled cooler waters.


Thats an interesting point. Lets see how the season progresses. It'll be interesting to see if the SST's can continue to rise.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
It's not even even the Cape Verde season and that is what we are hitching our wagons to? Give the season time people.


No ones saying it'll definitively develop. Its just something to watch. In fact, the only thing.
Looks like 28 degrees Centrigrade.


SSTs
Quoting Chicklit:
Hunkerdown, what's the centrigrade number of the SSTs at Cape Verde, please.
Best estimate from the map around 26.
Nothing in the gulf anytime soon.
Its as barren as the moon,
When we get back to the norm
and get a big storm
all the hurricane weenies will swoon.
Quoting Chicklit:
Hunkerdown, what's the centrigrade number of the SSTs at Cape Verde, please.


I dont know if you have me on ignore or not, but here you go.

Not your best Doug...did you just get back from your watering hole?
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


I dont know if you have me on ignore or not, but here you go.

and look at that pocket of cooler temps...
Small disturbances in the ocean can actually, over time help TCHP(tropical cyclone heat potential) by mixing the water at deeper depths with the ocean swells. Dont focus too much on SSTs, because they do not cause hurricane formation, but provide the fuel to sustain them as they exist...The REAL mechanism that gets hurricanes going is coriolis helped by vorticity(spin).
Drak wouldn't upwelling happen in the gom? That energy isn't going to wait forever.
Quoting Vortex95:
Drak wouldn't upwelling happen in the gom? That energy isn't going to wait forever.
I believe something would have to cause it.
The waves coming off of Africa are entering receptive conditions.
Goodnight.
Hi guys the current sst near the cape verde islands is 27c
Quoting Vortex95:
Drak wouldn't upwelling happen in the gom? That energy isn't going to wait forever.


Heat raises.....colder water sink....SST's recover very fast now....but a disturbance would help some....
Mixing water in the ocean helps to create a more uniform temp profile with depth...Just like air in the lower atmosphere mixing, it averages out temperature...The only difference is that temp changes in the ocean are over a longer time interval than in the atmosphere...
Quoting THUNDERPR:
Hi guys the current sst near the cape verde islands is 27c

Soon to become 28c
Link

see the map here.
The GOM has cooled down a bit, this buoy was registering temps around 90 degrees a couple of weeks ago, but, we've had a good bit of rain lately...

Conditions at 42001 as of
(10:50 pm CDT on 07/28/2009)
0350 GMT on 07/29/2009:
Unit of Measure: Time Zone:
Click on the graph icon in the table below to see a time series plot of the last five days of that observation.

Wind Direction (WDIR): SSE ( 150 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 9.7 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 11.7 kts
Wave Height (WVHT): 1.6 ft
Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 5 sec
Average Period (APD): 4.0 sec
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.97 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): +0.02 in ( Rising )
Air Temperature (ATMP): 85.6 °F
Water Temperature (WTMP): 87.3 °F
1790. GPTGUY
It still is amazing that the Gulf sustained 2 cat 5's in 2005 with all the tropical activity in June and July that preceeded Katrina and Rita.
Quoting Chicklit:
Hunkerdown, what's the centrigrade number of the SSTs at Cape Verde, please.


The heat energy in the GOM is called potential energy. It takes a disturbance to release it quickly.....Often times though, the full available potential energy is not used up by a hurricane, but is dispersed in the ocean and atmosphere as winter comes again over a longer period of time....
yes chicklit very soon
TampaSpin, I agree, a few days of bright sunshine and my favorite buoy will be right back registering temps around 90 degrees or so...
A wave is more likely increase with low SAL, not diminish, hunkerdown.
ThunderPR are we the only two smart people on here? I don't think so. We'll be like a pinball game on rocket fuel. Anyway, goodnight again. Sweet dreams of nice places.
Quoting GPTGUY:
It still is amazing that the Gulf sustained 2 cat 5's in 2005 with all the tropical activity in June and July that preceeded Katrina and Rita.


Hey GPTGUY, yeah that was amazing. The principle cause for that was the very warm loop current and warm pools of eddies breaking off(which happened to be in the direct path of such cat 5 storms)...

Early storms also helped mix the ocean, allowing for greater depths of warming over several months...

It is the atmospheric setup which is ultimately the most important criteria to hurricane formation though.
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Its actually rather alarming to see how much warmer the gulf is than previous active years.If a hurricane can get into the Gulf with the right conditions this year we could be looking at trouble.

2009:



This is pretty scary...
2005:


Even if its a slow season, a Category 5 in the gulf would be a season maker.
This map shows some AOI's


and this one
good nite.
Quoting ajcamsmom2:
TampaSpin, I agree, a few days of bright sunshine and my favorite buoy will be right back registering temps around 90 degrees or so...


Just to tell you all what happens. When i was in the GOM last week in the early mornings the surface temp in the exact same area from 7am vs 3pm could raise as much as almost 2deg going up and down.....from day to nite..Keep in mind that those temps are the surface temps on the very top....
1802. GPTGUY
Quoting quasigeostropic:


Hey GPTGUY, yeah that was amazing. The principle cause for that was the very warm loop current and warm pools of eddies breaking off(which happened to be in the direct path of such cat 5 storms)...

Early storms also helped mix the ocean, allowing for greater depths of warming over several months...

It is the atmospheric setup which is ultimately the most important criteria to hurricane formation though.


Oh so you're saying that the prior storms mixed the warmer surface water deeper making the TCHP higher?
Westerly wind shear is starting to move north.
All quiet on the eastern front....one more from me then g'nite.


The way to make some people glad
is to have a storm that is bad
they think its waycool
but they're actin the fool
cause it makes a bunch of us sad
yeah GPTGUY, that is often the way to get deeper pools of warm water(apart from loop currents, eddies, etc)....But again, it has its pitfalls as well...Its all timing....Since the upwelling happened near the beginning of the season(in 05), the ocean was able to recover more quickly, but to a deeper depth...If it happened near the end of the season, the energy would have not been utilized very efficiently since cold air masses start working their way to the oceans near that time frame, dispersing the heat...
About 10 knots of shear in the Gulf.
Does anybody know the last year when a hurricane was not in the gulf?
2009....so far...



Just kidding...
0Z GFS develops the wave coming off Africa it appears and then at 288 hours it has a very strong wave coming off Africa


To answer your question surge, 2006 didnt have a Hurricane in the Gulf
Thanks burned
Actually it develops the wave that is south of the CV Ialands now, holds on to it for a few days and then drops it lol

but this is the 2nd straight run now that the GFS has held onto the system for a decent period of time

The run is through 288 hours (August 10th) and has a huge wave coming off at that time
Quoting stormsurge39:
Does anybody know the last year when a hurricane was not in the gulf?


2006.
Ive always heard when a hurricane upwells water, that it slows developement for another. Is this true or not?
Looking good so far


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IYNgD5qguLY


Not sure if I hyperlinked that right, but it is a nice composite of satellite images showing Katrina just exploding after crossing over FL into the gulf...
Ok run is over, it develops a low with the wave at the end of the run too

So for the 2nd straight run, the GFS shows two systems forming; one towards the beginning of the run and one toward the end
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Looking good so far



Its going to take a day or so for the Boundary Layer to adjust to the Oceanic Environment.
1818. GPTGUY
Quoting quasigeostropic:
yeah GPTGUY, that is often the way to get deeper pools of warm water(apart from loop currents, eddies, etc)....But again, it has its pitfalls as well...Its all timing....Since the upwelling happened near the beginning of the season(in 05), the ocean was able to recover more quickly, but to a deeper depth...If it happened near the end of the season, the energy would have not been utilized very efficiently since cold air masses start working their way to the oceans near that time frame, dispersing the heat...


Cool I understand now...I thought storms just upwelled the cooler water to the surface I didn't realize they can mix warmer water to further depths
Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:
Ok run is over, it develops a low with the wave at the end of the run too

So for the 2nd straight run, the GFS shows two systems forming; one towards the beginning of the run and one toward the end


where does it take them?
1st system falls apart in the CATL and moves out to sea between Bermuda an the US East Coast

2nd system is at about 32W at the end of the run
Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:
1st system falls apart in the CATL and moves out to sea between Bermuda an the US East Coast

2nd system is in the CATL at the end of the run


thanks, so the second one could the potential real player here?
Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:
1st system falls apart in the CATL and moves out to sea between Bermuda an the US East Coast

2nd system is at about 32W at the end of the run


I have no idea, that is way too far out to determine.

I have a question for you tho, how do you expect anyone to know some of the questions you are asking about the future tracks of systems?
I live on the gulfcoast and have been in some bad hurricanes going all the way back to fredric in 1979. This is the first year ive been on this blog. Im starting to learn things from some of you,which will help me understand when a storm gets in the gulf if the enviroment is helping it or hurting it.I have met a local meterologist this year, and she said the wave coming off Africa right now is the one to watch for possible developement. at 50w.
Quoting WeatherStudent:


thanks, so the second one could the potential real player here?


Yea, 500MB Steering doesn't look too good at the end of the run. May I caution that this is 16 Day's out and is at very low confidence. But needs to be watched anyway.
Quoting SevereHurricane:


Yea, 500MB Steering doesn't look too good at the end of the run. May I caution that this is 16 Day's out and is at very low confidence. But needs to be watched anyway.


actually unless the system stays fairly weak, the high set up at the end of the run would take a system out to sea as well
1826. GPTGUY
Quoting stormsurge39:
I live on the gulfcoast and have been in some bad hurricanes going all the way back to fredric in 1979. This is the first year ive been on this blog. Im starting to learn things from some of you,which will help me understand when a storm gets in the gulf if the enviroment is helping it or hurting it.I have met a local meterologist this year, and she said the wave coming off Africa right now is the one to watch for possible developement. at 50w.


Hey there...where along the Gulf Coast are you? I've also learned a lot from this blog been here since the start of hurricane season 2005...don't usually post too much unless a storm threatens my area like Katrina in '05
Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:


I have no idea, that is way too far out to determine.

I have a question for you tho, how do you expect anyone to know some of the questions you are asking about the future tracks of systems?


fair enough. actually, i do not expect them to know, as a matter of fact. i'm just curious to know about their inputs regarding the topic being discussed, burnster, that's all. :)
GPT i live in nw mobile county. We moved here in 79 when I was 10 and i thought a hurricane was a bad thunderstorm. I found out the night of sep. 12th that fredric was no thunderstorm.
Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:


actually unless the system stays fairly weak, the high set up at the end of the run would take a system out to sea as well


really? then what's up with all of the talk on this blog lately in reference to everyone saying that the bermuda/azores high is going to be dominant during august and that all of the systems that form during that month will move predominantly due west following the steering patterns of the ridge. with little to no chance of recuvering out to sea.
1830. GPTGUY
Quoting stormsurge39:
GPT i live in nw mobile county. We moved here in 79 when I was 10 and i thought a hurricane was a bad thunderstorm. I found out the night of sep. 12th that fredric was no thunderstorm.


Oh yeah I was born in Dec. 1979 so I wasn't born then but I've heard plenty of stories about Fredric and of course Camille because my mom went through both of them here on the Mississippi Coast...My first experience was in 1985 with Elena...I remember having to evacuate twice.
1831. gator23
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Even if its a slow season, a Category 5 in the gulf would be a season maker.


I know this blog can be gulf centric but a category 5 ANYWHERE would be a season maker. Especially since more people are on harms way on the east coast
Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:


actually unless the system stays fairly weak, the high set up at the end of the run would take a system out to sea as well


If that pattern were to stay the same re curvature would likely not occur until it reached at least 75W.
Quoting WeatherStudent:


really? then what's up with all of the talk on this blog lately in reference to everyone saying that the bermuda/azores high is going to be dominant during august and that all of the systems that form during that month will move predominantly due west following the steering patterns of the ridge. with little to no chance of recuvering out to sea.


Whoever said that is correct.
A wise man once told me, as good as computers are, there only as good as the man or woman that put in the information. My point is, and no offense to anyone, but how accurate can a model project something that doesnt exist yet? I have more belief in them once something developes.
1835. ycd0108
Where is Cyclone Buster in this discussion?
Bill has funding - that's good!
We do not know what cloud seeding or pumping cold water from depth would do - that's bad!
This particular year looks fairly calm.
I'd say we leave it be for a while
WS; I think the newest runs have shown that the ridge will not hold in August and it may be September instead where it does

I am not sure tho, maybe someone else could shed some light on that.

anyway I am off to bed, later
Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:
WS; I think the newest runs have shown that the ridge will not hold in August and it may be September instead where it does

I am not sure tho, maybe someone else could shed some light on that.

anyway I am off to bed, later


Absolutely, let's remember to ask the experts on here tomorrow morning, alright? G'nite, I'll see you then, rest well. :)
1838. msphar
I see 2009 has already surpassed 1998 as the fourth latest season in the last 20 years. In three days it could push past 2004 and then 3 days later supplant 2000 to become a true outlier second only to 1992. Interesting...
Ana?

114hours GFS.

The recent (past month) equatorial upwelling event over the Atlantic has been a major deterrent in further development of AEW's.

That 1-2°C cool anomaly in SST's simply doesn't have the heat capacity to maintain strong convection, especially when working in tandem with the numerous and routine surges of dust from the Sahara.

The Cape Verde season may not begin in earnest until the middle of August. By then the ITCZ may lift far enough north to lessen the effect of the cold water upwelling to the south.
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Ana?

114hours GFS.



Do you see it moving out to sea with that double layered ridge to it's north?
Quoting WeatherStudent:


Do you see it moving out to sea with that double layered ridge to it's north?


It dissipates by the next frame...but as for track yeah I could see it curving out to sea near Bermuda.
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


It dissipates by the next frame...but as for track yeah I could see it curving out to sea near Bermuda.



Hmmm, why is that? And what about it's predeceser behind it?
water warmer up.
Quoting WeatherStudent:


Do you see it moving out to sea with that double layered ridge to it's north?
See the trough near the US east coast?
See the wind barbs between the trough and the ridge?
I'm not saying that this GFS run will verify, but that's where it would go according to THIS run.
Good Morning all,

Nothing in the tropics really worth discussing this morning. Don't know when my next update will be but I'll let you guys know. Have a great day.

There has not been a formidable invest anywhere in the world for weeks. It's most/least surprising for the Western Pacific/Atlantic.

Record Low Global Activity

And if anyone heard from Levi, let me know.
Quoting Weather456:
Good Morning all,

Nothing in the tropics really worth discussing this morning. Don't know when my next update will be but I'll let you guys know. Have a great day.

There has not been a formidable invest anywhere in the world for weeks. It's most/least surprising for the Western Pacific/Atlantic.

Record Low Global Activity

And if anyone heard from Levi, let me know.
Just one question,with all this dry, dusty air coming off Africa,why is this???When you see areas of low pressure and rain continue in a train like fashion across Africa,you would think just the opposite..?
guess that big wave out there in the mdr is what gfs said was near the bahamas next monday. thanks 456 for posting it
Quoting victoria780:
Just one question,with all this dry, dusty air coming off Africa,why is this???When you see areas of low pressure and rain continue in a train like fashion across Africa,you would think just the opposite..?


Not necesarily. Tropical waves occur in a narrow band between 20N and 0N (Sub-Saharan). While dust occurs to the north near 20N and 30N (Saharan Africa). Wet active tropical waves move south of the driest areas across Africa but their circulations raises the dust and thus any synoptic feature (like the Azores High) can easily advect the raise dust into the Atlantic. The more waves we have, the most dust is raised. Therefore these wet tropical waves does not necessarily mean less dust.

Now, all this dust in July is troubling becuz raised dust is a nearly fixed factor over Sahel. For exmaple, if you have a bowl of sugar and you use it up, eventually you'll have no more sugar left. What is happening, is large amounts of raised dust are being advected from Africa and sooner or later their will little raised dust to advect into the Atlantic. This normally occurs in August and September each year with most noticeable years 2004 and 2007.
sometimes i just can not figure this out here we have nothing for the longest time. watch. then all of sudden there are twins.
very strong winds come off north africa blowing east. it blows the surf flat south of morrocco. guess this helps blow the dust out to sea the low amplitude wave moving into the windward should pulse up alittle and provide showers
Quoting Weather456:


Not necesarily. Tropical waves occur in a narrow band between 20N and 0N (Sub-Saharan). While dust occurs to the north near 20N and 30N (Saharan Africa). Wet active tropical waves move south of the driest areas across Africa but their circulations raises the dust and thus any synoptic feature (like the Azores High) can easily advect the raise dust into the Atlantic. The more waves we have, the most dust is raised. Therefore these wet tropical waves does not necessarily mean less dust.

Now, all this dust in July is troubling becuz raised dust is a nearly fixed factor over Sahel. For exmaple, if you have a bowl of sugar and you use it up, eventually you'll have no more sugar left. What is happening, is large amounts of raised dust are being advected from Africa and sooner or later their will little raised dust to advect into the Atlantic. This normally occurs in August and September each year with most noticeable years 2004 and 2007.
Asking questions shows how little I know,however if you dont ask then people assume you know everything..Thanks 456
The tropics are in no condition,
to support hardly anyones prediction
we'll all be feasting for sho'
on plenty of crow
that was cooked up in Patraps Kitchen!


Mornin' all.
1857. IKE
I'll give you a prediction....the next 10 days are quiet in the Atlantic basin.

00Z CMC and 00Z NOGAPS show almost nothing through Aug. 4th.

00Z ECMWF shows nothing through Aug. 8th.

06Z GFS has lows in the far eastern Atlantic, but they die by the time they make 40 west... all clear for land masses through August 14th!

If this weren't something that can cause death and destruction I would laugh at how slow it is, but it only takes one.
Good Morning everyone. Nice blog 456. Thats the second time I have read about sunspots and the tropics. Although the first I read was Texas specific. And for the last few maximum and minimum cycles has been pretty spot on. Pardon the pun. Thanks for bringing it up. Now I have something else to Google. :) Here's what I read about Texas for anyone who's interested...

Long term trends/hurricane cycles. Studies were made back in the 1950's by Dr. W. Armstrong Price on hurricane incidence along the Texas coast and the sunspot cycle. Regardless of whether or not it is due to sunspots or some other interannual climate cycle, using data back to 1829 that are periods in the climatological record of "hurricane-rich" and "hurricane poor" sets of years. A hurricane-rich set of year is represented by an average of 8 storms making landfall over an average of 10 years, plus or minus a couple of either. A hurricane-poor set of years is represented by an average of 2 storms making landfall over an average of 14 years, plus or minus a couple of either.

Using this pattern, he correctly predicted the hurricane-rich period he was entering in 1956 (it lasted from 1954-1971). Using this pattern, it is noted that the Texas coast has been in a hurricane-poor period since 1990. This would mean that at least one more landfalling hurricanes should be expected by around 2004. Thereafter, a hurricane-rich period would begin, lasting until approximately 2015, in which nearly eight hurricanes would make landfall. Remember, it only takes one hurricane making landfall in your location to create grief for you and your loved ones.

This was written in 1999. And sure enough we had one more landfalling hurricane Claudette in 2003. And everyone knows what happened starting in 2005 with Rita. Since then we've had Humberto 2007, Dolly 2008, and Ike. So to my calulations we are halfway there in Hurricane numbers and almost halfway in years. Will be interesting to see if this plays out through 2015. Now that is just hurricanes not taking into account tropical storms. I don't know if this makes a difference or not. Just seemed strange but there may be something to it.
BTW I miss Levi too. :(


Good morning to all.

I have a question about models vs development.

Has a system developed without any model support in the past?
1860. IKE
There are no active invests on the planet for the 29th of July. Incredible.


TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA



TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT WED JUL 29 2009

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
1861. IKE
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Good morning to all.

I have a question about models vs development.

Has a system developed without any model support in the past?


Yes. Dr. Masters has said, if all models show something or none do...watch out. But you can look at a wide view of the entire Atlantic and see why these models are showing little.....



I'm not complaining about a slow season.
I own a home 75 yards from Bayou Grande in P'cola. My west-side neighborhood was hard-hit by Ivan. It was only thru luck that my home sits a few feet higher than most of my neighbors and I didn't get storm surge. Thirteen big pines came down tho.
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Good morning to all.

I have a question about models vs development.

Has a system developed without any model support in the past?


I'm not sure beause I didnt know about the models then but I believe no one had a clue Humberto was coming. And he's a prime example of why they were/are worried about another spinning up close to home this time and not enough time to warn anyone.
1864. IKE
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
I'm not complaining about a slow season.
I own a home 75 yards from Bayou Grande in P'cola. My west-side neighborhood was hard-hit by Ivan. It was only thru luck that my home sits a few feet higher than most of my neighbors and I didn't get storm surge. Thirteen big pines came down tho.


Amen. I'm not complaining either. I'm shocked, but not complaining.
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
I'm not complaining about a slow season.
I own a home 75 yards from Bayou Grande in P'cola. My west-side neighborhood was hard-hit by Ivan. It was only thru luck that my home sits a few feet higher than most of my neighbors and I didn't get storm surge. Thirteen big pines came down tho.


I'm glad your house came out ok. There is sometimes a randomness with these storms as far as destruction goes. Last year Ike flooded the southern half of my county. But what a lot of people don't think about is the inland flooding/surge danger. We are not even a coastal county but Ike pushed so much water up the lakes and rivers and bayous we went under. With 20 feet of water on our one main street of my town. But in this storm we lucked out on a high piece of ground. And the tree fell away from the house. Rita took down approximately 50% of th tree canopy in some places. Ike another 20. So no complaints about the slow season here either.
Quoting homelesswanderer:


I'm not sure beause I didnt know about the models then but I believe no one had a clue Humberto was coming. And he's a prime example of why they were/are worried about another spinning up close to home this time and not enough time to warn anyone.



you also right now have decreasing shear and high SSts across the Atlantic basin, yeah the dust is there but despite what the models show or do not show hopefully everyone is prepared.
WOW those gulf waters are toasty!
1862. PensacolaDoug 11:42 AM GMT on July 29, 2009
I'm not complaining about a slow season.
I own a home 75 yards from Bayou Grande in P'cola. My west-side neighborhood was hard-hit by Ivan. It was only thru luck that my home sits a few feet higher than most of my neighbors and I didn't get storm surge. Thirteen big pines came down tho.


morning everyone, yep P'cola Doug....I'm sure not complaining, could use a nice ground swell though...but yes Bayou Grande got rocked for sure...i live just west of that in Elberta just north of Pirates Cove and lord only knows we had enough our selves....Ike, yes to be this calm in late July all over is very strange..
2009 Storms
Active


Atlantic
NONE
East Pacific
NONE
Central Pacific
NONE
West Pacific
NONE
Indian Ocean
NONE
Southern Hemisphere
NONE

july 29 nothing in the entire globe strange days indeed
The models are showing a slight positive NAO pulse, but then turns it negative again. August will indeed an interesting month.

Tropical update coming in a couple of minutes
1871. IKE
456...you had a good blog.

Found this on his blog....

"According to some recent MJO updates by the Climate Prediction Center (CPC), the MJO signals have been weaker than normal over the past 2-3 months. The suppressive states are also lasting longer and more pronounce that the enhancing state. This is likely causing the lack of convective activity in the tropics, which is the first step in tropical cyclogenesis.".....


Look at the lack of convection in the Atlantic basin....

Forgive me if this has already been posted...

Texas considers 55-mile ‘Ike Dike’ to protect the coast from flooding

Juan A. Lozano July 15th, 2009


GALVESTON, Texas — It has been dubbed the “Ike Dike” — a 55-mile barrier, 17 feet high, that would be built along the Texas Gulf Coast to fend off the sort of devastating flooding inflicted by last year’s Hurricane Ike.



This brings up some interesting points. But one concern mentioned was whether or not Texans should be allowed to build homes on the coast. The answer may be easy if they are talking about the beachfront. However there is only so far away someone could live and still make working in the all important petrochemical industry feasible. There are no easy answers. The proposed dike would not protect almost all of the areas east of Galveston that were destroyed by Ike. Ah well, we are one weary state.:(

Link
Blog Update
Reflector site for those at work, which includes Weather456, daily update.


AOI

AOI
1874. IKE
Quoting homelesswanderer:
Forgive me if this has already been posted...

Texas considers 55-mile ‘Ike Dike’ to protect the coast from flooding

Juan A. Lozano July 15th, 2009


GALVESTON, Texas — It has been dubbed the “Ike Dike” — a 55-mile barrier, 17 feet high, that would be built along the Texas Gulf Coast to fend off the sort of devastating flooding inflicted by last year’s Hurricane Ike.



This brings up some interesting points. But one concern mentioned was whether or not Texans should be allowed to build homes on the coast. The answer may be easy if they are talking about the beachfront. However there is only so far away someone could live and still make working in the all important petrochemical industry feasible. There are no easy answers. The proposed dike would not protect almost all of the areas east of Galveston that were destroyed by Ike. Ah well, we are one weary state.:(

Link


Are they proposing that for the west side of the island where the sea wall isn't at?
'morning all! :)

Hey Doug! Wassabee! :P (Yes or no on the songs, bro? :)

No rhymes or reasons from me today. It's not that I don't feel okay. I just popped in now to say "Hey!" Now I'm back to work, if I may.

Everyone have a great 0,0,0 day!

:D
1877. cg2916
Very quiet today... looks like we will have a later start than '04. But I have that feeling that we'll explode in August/September, but then calm WAY down after that again, with maybe one or two Tropical Storms and one Hurricane in October. But we'll have to wait. None of the models forecast anything for a while, but look at the end of the GFS model near Africa, may be something to watch, but then again, we never know.

Quoting mrnicktou:


Are they proposing that for the west side of the island where the sea wall isn't at?


I'm not sure. The way I read it seems like they would be extending it to the east. But I could be wrong.
1879. bjdsrq
Getting back on topic on the Gate's patent described here:
Gates wants to be God

I'm quite surprised to find a serious fundamental flaw in the concept presented by Gates. (Maybe this is why Windows is such an unstable and mediocre product.)

The flaw is expecting waves to fill a floating tub above the water line and thus create a head that is strong enough to effectively push water down a very long pipe that extends deep below the thermocline. Like air, water is a fluid, and the principles of convection apply. Warm water rises, and cold water sinks. At some point in its journey down the tube, the warm water is going to be surrounded by very cold water, and the convection is going to offset any small head created by waves, stopping the flow. Design won't work well at all IMO.
1882. Patrap
Well,sport..your in the wrong blog with that.

The doomsday blogs are 3 doors down on the Right.


And refrain from quoting me if ya can..
who you talking to Ike??


good morning all.
Brian. Call me.
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Brian. Call me.


No long-distance until tonight.
You can call me...you know where.
I'll send an e-mail with number.
Quoting CycloneOz:
'morning all! :)

Hey Doug! Wassabee! :P (Yes or no on the songs, bro? :)

No rhymes or reasons from me today. It's not that I don't feel okay. I just popped in now to say "Hey!" Now I'm back to work, if I may.

Everyone have a great 0,0,0 day!

:D


Morning CO and PD! Hey PD, I liked the Crossfire song posted on CO's youtube channel. Pretty good stuff. I think you guys would do a killer job on the remakes...

This season is eerily quiet so far. Don't know if that's a good thing or a bad thing...we'll see in the next 60 days....

HJ
Quoting hurricanejunky:


Morning CO and PD! Hey PD, I liked the Crossfire song posted on CO's youtube channel. Pretty good stuff. I think you guys would do a killer job on the remakes...

This season is eerily quiet so far. Don't know if that's a good thing or a bad thing...we'll see in the next 60 days....

HJ


Hey HJ! Thank you for what you're doing! Super appreciated! :)
When Patrap calls you "Sport"
It means he didn't like your retort
So don't do it again
Or he might not be your friend
And treat you like a wart.


Just playin Pat, don't take it too seriously now!
Quoting Patrap:
The doomsday blogs are 3 doors down on the Right...


LOL! :D
Thanks JUnky!
1891. help4u
No mjo this year,conditions are nil for development.In a couple weeks we will be saying conditions will become favorable a week or two.Before you know it season is over.I revise my predection from 2 storms down to 1 for the season.This will be a record breaking season for least amount of storms.
Here's a shameless plug for PensacolaDoug and his band! Doug is a great keyboard player and his band really rocks!

Quoting help4u:
No mjo this year,conditions are nil for development.In a couple weeks we will be saying conditions will become favorable a week or two.Before you know it season is over.I revise my predection from 2 storms down to 1 for the season.This will be a record breaking season for least amount of storms.


Why not say 0???:)
Dr. Masters,

This is an excellent explanation of why Bill Gates' hurricane strength reducing scheme will not work and even if it did work, why it's not the right thing to do. I agree with you one hundred percent!

About the Hollywood movie disaster epics, they are just entertainment for fun, so don't hold them to keeping the laws of physics, or the science plausiable ;) It's supposed to be fantasy :) so give yourself a break from work, relax, and laugh about the hurricane spinning clockwise :D

For the Turtles (who probably wouldn't appreciale getting sucked up in a giant tube from the bottom of the Gulf where they are happily munching on crabs),
Dorothy Lane Carswell, Writer/Editor
Jekyll Island's Treasured Recipes
Cooking for Caretta caretta

-Please click to keep us #1
http://www.seaturtle.org/books/new/ Our cookbook featured -100% of the profit goes to the Georgia Sea Turtle Center :)
Recipe Contributors from all over the World! No, we are not cooking turtles, we are cooking FOR the turtles ... especially our most famous visitor, Caretta caretta aka the Loggerhead Sea Turtle ♥

Quoting cg2916:
Very quiet today... looks like we will have a later start than '04. But I have that feeling that we'll explode in August/September, but then calm WAY down after that again, with maybe one or two Tropical Storms and one Hurricane in October. But we'll have to wait. None of the models forecast anything for a while, but look at the end of the GFS model near Africa, may be something to watch, but then again, we never know.


I agree completely...

Hi guys!
Quoting Patrap:


55-mile storm barrier proposed for Texas
'Ike Dike' could cost up to $4 billion and take 20 years to build




It appears that they will be installing a bridge from the island to boliver. That would be nice but that would have to be one huge bridge
1897. help4u
tropical cyclone energy lowest in 30 years.
Morning all. Still can't believe how quiet things are - but very grateful.
We were in Navarre Florida this past week and I had to make an observation about the GOM. The water was COLD. I'm not kidding. I know there was a cool front that had passed through the area, but the water remained a cool temperature the entire week. Had never noticed that before. Usually around noon it starts to warm up. I would hope if this is the case out into the GOM that this could inhibit strong development. I welcome any thoughts on this.
Quoting hurricanehanna:
We were in Navarre Florida this past week and I had to make an observation about the GOM. The water was COLD. I'm not kidding....


Dang that Bill Gates! He's already out there pumpin' water up!

Just like him to just go and do it and then tell us all later on after it's up and runnin'!
Quoting Patrap:


55-mile storm barrier proposed for Texas
'Ike Dike' could cost up to $4 billion and take 20 years to build

IMO, it would be a massive waste of money. Galveston and Bolivar are both barrier islands/peninsulas. If people build on them, they are building with the full knowledge of the risks involved. Also, trying to contain mother nature is a battle bound to be lost... if the dike isn't overtopped, the surge will go around it, and there is also the issue of Galveston Bay going up as a storm pulls away. Also, please keep in mind that at an estimated cost of $4 billion, if the dike "protects" 1 million people, it would cost $4000 per person, AND create a perception of false security. To top it all off, it will horribly disrupt the natural flow of water and natural restorative processes for the areas within the dike.

And finally... Haven't we learned that levees/dikes don't work? Just look at the flooding on the Mississippi river, Katrina in New Orleans, etc. All that will likely end up happening is a Cat 4/5 hits, overtops the Ike Dike, and then the water is stuck.
Quoting CycloneOz:


Dang that Bill Gates! He's already out there pumpin' water up!

Just like him to just go and do it and then tell us all later on after it's up and runnin'!



Its better to ask for forgivenes than permission!
Quoting cg2916:
Very quiet today... looks like we will have a later start than '04. But I have that feeling that we'll explode in August/September, but then calm WAY down after that again, with maybe one or two Tropical Storms and one Hurricane in October. But we'll have to wait. None of the models forecast anything for a while, but look at the end of the GFS model near Africa, may be something to watch, but then again, we never know.



To far south I think.
Quoting hurricanehanna:
Morning all. Still can't believe how quiet things are - but very grateful.
We were in Navarre Florida this past week and I had to make an observation about the GOM. The water was COLD. I'm not kidding. I know there was a cool front that had passed through the area, but the water remained a cool temperature the entire week. Had never noticed that before. Usually around noon it starts to warm up. I would hope if this is the case out into the GOM that this could inhibit strong development. I welcome any thoughts on this.


The waters in Gulf of Mexico are not cold, you might have been in a cold current eddy or pocket, which might be in the higher 70's to low 80's. But the GOM is about average. Just like a big bathtub.

Quoting StormChaser81:


The waters in Gulf of Mexico are not cold, you might have been in a cold current eddy or pocket, which might be in the higher 70's to low 80's. But the GOM is about average. Just like a big bathtub.



Look at all that "white water" around the Penscola area. It doesn't even get above 80 degrees until well off shore!

Should a storm form and hook into that area at this time, you could expect a major downgrade before it would make landfall, imo.
Guess the cold water was just closer to shore - didn't realize how hot it was further out in the GOM.
Quoting sullivanweather:
The recent (past month) equatorial upwelling event over the Atlantic has been a major deterrent in further development of AEW's.

That 1-2°C cool anomaly in SST's simply doesn't have the heat capacity to maintain strong convection, especially when working in tandem with the numerous and routine surges of dust from the Sahara.

The Cape Verde season may not begin in earnest until the middle of August. By then the ITCZ may lift far enough north to lessen the effect of the cold water upwelling to the south.


I agree that this is an interesting new feature in the tropical Atlantic...with below normal SSTs along the equator. However, at least from the image below it doesn't look to extend north into the band where African Waves typically develop - between roughly 7 and 15 north. Here the SSTs are at least 26-27C.

I believe the dust you mention + general subsidence from the MJO has been the bigger issue for development

WHats the count now Brian?
I think Bill Gates is a fool in this case. Of course after 25 years of Windows, Outlook still hangs randomly when updating folders or IE crashes inexplicably or maybe today's the day I have to reboot my PC 10 times for updates. Windows is really a joke if you want to get down to it. 25 years down the road and this is what we've got??? I can't wait to see how he does fighting hurricanes.

I highly commend his humanitarian efforts but an undertaking like trying to slow down what is arguably Mother Nature's most powerful weather creation is not a job for man.

We need to explore how to pit one element of nature against another. Only nature is powerful enough to combat nature, IMHO.

HJ
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
WHats the count now Brian?


15...it's sooooooo slow!
Groovy......Like a movie.....
Quoting hurricanehanna:
Guess the cold water was just closer to shore - didn't realize how hot it was further out in the GOM.

:)
NEW BLOG
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Groovy......Like a movie.....


LOL!
Weather and storm modification by say, the AF, can avoid liability just by being top secret. Hmmm, I wonder...