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Bill brushes Massachusetts; Nova Scotia gets pounded

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:05 PM GMT on August 23, 2009

The winds and waves are dying down in coastal Massachusetts, which took a glancing blow from Hurricane Bill last night and this morning. Bill's center passed about 200 miles southeast of Massachusetts' Nantucket Island, bringing top sustained winds of 24 mph, gusting to 31 mph, at the airport. A storm surge of 1 foot was observed on Cape Cod and Nantucket at high tide. A storm surge of 0.5 feet was reported at Newport, RI, and Boston, MA. President Obama arrives in neighboring Martha's Vineyard today for vacation, and will not want to go swimming--seas of up to 15 feet will continue to batter the shores of southeast Massachusetts. Significant wave heights at Buoy 44008, about 60 miles southeast of Nantucket Island reached 27 feet early this morning. A rainband from Bill set up over Massachusetts, from Boston southwestward, and several reports of 3 - 4 inches of rain came from stations in the rain band (Figure 1).


Figure 1. Radar estimated precipitation from Hurricane Bill. Kingston, MA, received 3.74 inches of rain from Bill. Western Massachusetts got even heavier rain from an approaching cold front.

Bill's impact on Canada
The Canadian Hurricane Center is predicting that Bill will generate a storm surge of 0.5 - 1.0 meters (1.5 - 3 feet) along the coasts of Nova Scotia and Newfoundland today, as the storm races northeast at 30 mph. The surge, when combined with the 5 - 10 meter (16 - 33 foot) waves expected to pound the coast, will cause considerable coastal damage. This is the main threat of Bill to Canada. Bill's highest hurricane-force winds should stay offshore this afternoon as the hurricane passes the heavily populated capital, Halifax. However, winds of 60 - 70 mph will likely impact eastern Nova Scotia, where Bill is expected to make landfall later today, causing considerable tree damage and power outages. Heavy rains of 3 - 4 inches will also cause localized flooding problems. Radar out of Halifax, Nova Scotia shows heavy rain from Bill impacting most of the province, but Bill's center is located well offshore. Buoy 44150 was in the east eyewall of Bill at 9:30 am EDT, and reported sustained winds of 62 mph, gusting to 85 mph, with waves of 40 feet. Bill is expected to make landfall over Newfoundland near midnight tonight, but will have likely weakened to a tropical storm by then.

Links to follow:
wundermap for Nova Scotia
Halifax radar
Canadian Hurricane Center advisories

Elsewhere in the tropics
There are no threat areas in the Atlantic worth mentioning today. Most of the models are calling for the possible development of a tropical cyclone in the waters between the Bahamas and North Carolina on Wednesday or Thursday. There could be two triggers for tropical cyclone formation--the remains of the cold front that pushed off the U.S. East Coast this morning, plus a tropical wave that is currently approaching the northern Lesser Antilles Islands. We will also need to watch the region off the coast of Africa this week.

I'll have an update Monday, when I'll show a remarkable photo taken in the eye of Hurricane Bill by the Hurricane Hunters.

Jeff Masters
After Bill
After Bill
Looking south easterly off St. David's, Bermuda
Waves courtesy of Hurricane Bill
Waves courtesy of Hurricane Bill
East Coast surfers trying their hand at "big" surf.

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting Skyepony:
Tampaspin~ try this link to cimss, been working for me. The newer one..


Thanks Sky thats the same one i use also....Its back working again now......THANKS so much
504. JLPR
well who knows, maybe it is a small circulation

there might not be west winds but there are some decently strong winds in there

Look the ITCZ tonight, seems that all the energy is fuelling the 55w wave.
Is that swirl the next possible Danny? Doesn't look like there is much to it.
NS got some power outages this afternoon, so dunno how many NS bloggers will be in an electrical position to report in.....
Quoting BahaHurican:
NS got some power outages this afternoon, so dunno how many NS bloggers will be in an electrical position to report in.....
Good point. Hopefully things will get back to normal tomorrow.
Looking at the possible new invest coming at 55W it has a very strong 850mb Vorticity, good Divergence, but lacks much in Convergence. When we start to see the Convergence pick up then we really have to watch this..awful lot of Shear to the North from the ULL which is causing the Divergence which could help vent a system if it can get some Convergence going at the lower levels.

850mb Vorticity


Divergence


Convergence


Shear Map
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


as we get into late august and early sept tracks change to n cen carb and nw carb into gom type systems and cv storms start the east coast recurve
Much earlier, 4 or 5 hrs. ago, you showed a graphic that was alarming! Is there any data to support that scenario?
Quoting Relix:


You never know!!
If we get whacked by hurricane Jeanne again,we are going to say it is all your fault.....:)
Quoting PortABeachBum:
Much earlier, 4 or 5 hrs. ago, you showed a graphic that was alarming! Is there any data to support that scenario?


What alarming scenario? What graphic?
I wonder how the Newfoundlanders are doing this evening. Looks like a wet one.
at 954 pm est

03L BILL XTS LANDFALL BURIN PENS.SE NEWFOUNDLAND COAST THIS ENDS THE TRACKING OF BILL
515. JLPR
lol if the Atlantic looked like this :



We would already have 10 deaths due to suicide all from reading this blog lol xD
It was a map showing typical cyclone paths in late August and September. Wx discussions here are mentioning a low developing offshore later this week. Jax discussion seems totally unconcerned--out and away. Charleston wx discussion less sure about that. But it won't come to Georgia :)
Quoting TampaSpin:
Looking at the possible new invest coming at 55W it has a very strong 850mb Vorticity, good Divergence, but lacks much in Convergence. When we start to see the Convergence pick up then we really have to watch this..awful lot of Shear to the North from the ULL which is causing the Divergence which could help vent a system if it can get some Convergence going at the lower levels.

850mb Vorticity


Divergence


Convergence


Shear Map


It is still ill-vertically stacked, since it is lacking vorticity at the mid levels.
School tomorrow...before I go, I'll give a brief analysis of what is going on with our new wave.

A tropical wave is currently moving westward at approximately 17 MPH. Convective activity has increased substantially today, but the system still remains poorly organized, because the convection is caused by the interaction of an adjacent upper level low to the west. The upper low is expected to weaken and move into the SW Caribbean over the next couple days, causing wind shear values to decrease as the tropical wave moves toward the Bahamas. This should enable this system to effectively consolidate. In addition to that, the upper air conditions are expected to become really favorable for tropical cyclogenesis over the next 48hrs. A major trough-split is expected to occur in the SE U.S, and this will ventilate the air to the east of it; thus, catalyzing the formation of an upper level anticyclone. This is why the models expect this system to rapidly organize beyond 72hrs; and we should forget that SSTs are very warm across the Bahamas. Near all of the models expect this system to feel the weakness in the ridge, and move parallel to the FL coastline. However, a landfall in the Carolinas seems plausible at the moment.

Model data
519. bwat
think it might hold true?
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?time=2009082312&field=850mb+Vorticity&hour=Animation
Quoting JLPR:
lol if the Atlantic looked like this :



We would already have 10 deaths due to suicide all from reading this blog lol xD


.. it did last week ROFL. Bill, Claudette and Ana.
That MJO is going to come into the Atlantic again shortly, I'm pretty sure we're going to see Danny, Erika, Fred, and Grace in a few weeks.
bwat it's possible, especially since it shows it hitting a realistic target like North Carolina. But somehow, I just don't trust it--the storm just seems to tight and organized somehow. My instinct says the next storm will form east of the northern Bahamas, and be bloated, ill-defined and out of control.
Quoting bwat:
think it might hold true?
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?time=2009082312&field=850mb+Vorticity&hour=Animat ion


Yes, the Carolinas may experience something like this

Its Ok
as one dies another is being borned
526. bwat
I agree, but then again the models have it blowing up around 72hrs, guess it will be a game of wait and see. Won't loose any sleep tonight though.
527. JLPR
Quoting HurricaneKyle:


.. it did last week ROFL. Bill, Claudette and Ana.
That MJO is going to come into the Atlantic again shortly, I'm pretty sure we're going to see Danny, Erika, Fred, and Grace in a few weeks.


I don't know why but Fred sounds like a scary storm xD
although Grace doesnt sound too good either =P
waiting and watching...oldest son moving from DC back to Charleston, SC this week coming...depending on what that low does will determine what day he attempts this on...
529. JLPR


not bad
hubby's name is Danny...he has one heck of a temper...wouldn't wanna see these two collide, it would be a battle of wills...rofl
Quoting tiggeriffic:
waiting and watching...oldest son moving from DC back to Charleston, SC this week coming...depending on what that low does will determine what day he attempts this on...
Is he driving a truck?
ADDED: Moving is not fun in the best of weather.
Is anyone else watching the TWC special re Katrina? Footage from the super dome that hasn't been released before, its awful.
toyota pick up with all his stuff in the back...covered with a tarp and cargo net...
Quoting KEHCharleston:
Have any of the bloggers from N.S and Newfoundland checked in?

Wondering how it is going on the ground.


Clear and calm in Halifax. Stars are out! Not much of note here as Bill passed about 75 km (~40nm) to the south. Maybe 2-3 inches of rain (but all in a few hours) and winds sustained at perhaps 60km/h with a gust of 87 km/h. A few old or diseased trees down, very spotty, a few power outages.. most if not all back online (in Halifax).

Some pretty large surf on the coast, overwashing and temporary closure of coastal roads, but no permanent damage. Thankfully no loss of life, although 3 teenagers got too close and ended up in the water at Peggy's cove. Fortunately two were able to get themselves and the third out on their own.

As for the rest of the province, I can't speak with any authority, but all indications are that we were spared this time around. No serious damage, injuries or significant (long term) power failures. I have two friends in Richmond County, Cape Breton (along the south coast). The Wunderground cumulative wind graphic puts them in the hurricane force zone.. but neither saw anything close to that in either of their coastal communities.

Thats all I've got. Thanks everyone for the all the info over the past few hours, days and well years. :)
Terry
and the best of it is he is 20 years old which means he knows everything...lol
FutureMet it is much better to start with a strong 850mb vorticity than to have a spin at the mid levels with nothing at the 850mb to start the cycle for a Cycloe in the beginning of formation.
Quoting tiggeriffic:
toyota pick up with all his stuff in the back...covered with a tarp and cargo net...
Not a trip he is looking forward to, I am sure.
future met im betting its going to be another Gaston if not that Ernesto. Never the less i'll be watching
540. bwat
Quoting futuremet:


Yes, the Carolinas may experience something like this



Ernesto?
Quoting tbonehfx:


Clear and calm in Halifax. Stars are out! Not much of note here as Bill passed about 75 km (~40nm) to the south. Maybe 2-3 inches of rain (but all in a few hours) and winds sustained at perhaps 60km/h with a gust of 87 km/h. A few old or diseased trees down, very spotty, a few power outages.. most if not all back online (in Halifax).

Some pretty large surf on the coast, overwashing and temporary closure of coastal roads, but no permanent damage. Thankfully no loss of life, although 3 teenagers got too close and ended up in the water at Peggy's cove. Fortunately two were able to get themselves and the third out on their own.
As for the rest of the province, I can't speak with any authority, but all indications are that we were spared this time around. No serious damage, injuries or significant (long term) power failures. I have two friends in Richmond County, Cape Breton (along the south coast). The Wunderground cumulative wind graphic puts them in the hurricane force zone.. but neither saw anything close to that in either of their coastal communities.

Thats all I've got. Thanks everyone for the all the info over the past few hours, days and well years. :)
Terry
Thanks for the report. Much appreciated. Glad it went so well.
that looks like a floyd track as well...comes in facing charleston, then skirts and hits NC...
Jeff won the power of veto on Big Brother...whoops, wrong blog...:)
A possible invest tomorrow?
several storms in the past few years have done that swoop thing...
Bill blew right past Halifax @ about 55km/hr - left everyone wondering when the storm was going to hit. Some power outages were reported across Nova Scotia. A little breezy with a few downpours, but uneventful for the most part.

Saw a photo on CBC.ca taken on the rocks in Peggy's Cove. These clowns are just lucky they didn't get swept out to sea.


(Photo by Tim Krochak/Canadian Press)
ugh...off to bed...work early in the am...back home after lunch and will check in then... nite all!
547. bwat
hopefully it wont turn out like that, maybe it will curve to the east if anything forms. At least if it does form and come this way I'll get to use my whole house generator I bought after Isabell.
Thanks for the excellent Newfoundland update Tbone!
The AOI is about to run into the ULL.
Loop

Is that where Bill went through?
The difference in SST's in the middle.
I have a hard time with a storm strengthening just north of Hispaniola just like that, a historically very hostile ares south of about 20.5 N.
545. iamcanadian
Thanks - that is an incredible picture. Boggles the mind.

G'night Tiggeriffic.
I am out as well. Goodnight folks.
How much does a whole-house generator cost these days? I live in a small two-story townhouse.
Quoting JLPR:


I don't know why but Fred sounds like a scary storm xD
although Grace doesnt sound too good either =P
Fred sounds bad because it begins w/ the letter F....
Quoting zoomiami:
Is anyone else watching the TWC special re Katrina? Footage from the super dome that hasn't been released before, its awful.


Humbling indeed. To this day, one of the best doc's I have seen is the special NGC did on Katrina, "Inside Hurricane Katrina." Fantastic production.
555. JLPR
On a side note on the Miss Universe Pageant Puerto Rico made it to the last 5 finalists xD

BAMM! we got pretty ladies here =P
This is a "like wow" graphic. Those little French Islands (Micquilon? forget the exact name) look like the first to get actual Hurricane force winds....



Modification: Saint Pierre and Micquelon is the correct name of the islands. They belong to France.
557. bwat
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
How much does a whole-house generator cost these days? I live in a small two-story townhouse.

Got an electrician friend to do the work, materials gonna cost ya around 3-4 grand, but when the powers out for 2 plus weeks it is WELL worth it. Plus a small upkeep cost, mines set up tp come on and run once a week just to keep it broke in. (runs on propane)
Quoting AussieStorm:

Is that where Bill went through?
The difference in SST's in the middle.


Hey AussieStorm, read my entry #494. Nobody answered it. I am not good at linking I am glad you posted it. It must be Bill's upwelling.
Good little Gracie from 1959, the strongest hurricane to hit SC between 1893 and 1989:

nite tigger!
oh no blog at my post.... trying again :)

Tampa, did the NAM drop the system it was trying to form in the Caribbean and bring towards the gulf?

Thanks :)
Quoting JLPR:
On a side note on the Miss Universe Pageant Puerto Rico made it to the last 5 finalists xD

BAMM! we got pretty ladies here =P


Yes we DO!! Lets see if she brings the sixth crown home.
00z nam is more bullish on the bahamas system
Quoting bwat:

Got an electrician friend to do the work, materials gonna cost ya around 3-4 grand, but when the powers out for 2 plus weeks it is WELL worth it. Plus a small upkeep cost, mines set up tp come on and run once a week just to keep it broke in. (runs on propane)


After weeks without power with Francis and Jeanne, it seems like a wise investment..also for property value. In addition, it would help my neighbors out.
I would pay attention to the wave still a few hundred miles inland over Africa. It's a large wave with broad rotation and is similar to the wave that spawned Bill in size and appearance. Also watch the northern Caribbean and Bahamas for development. The cmc model develops a moderately strong storm se of the Bahamas. The nogaps model tries to develop it, but it doesn't even reach depression strength.
OK, the GRAPHIC in post #565 is supposed to go with the text in post #556.

Can't seem to be able to post both at the same time....
Whack...Kill the engine.

Bye Bill

Quoting nishinigami:
oh no blog at my post.... trying again :)

Tampa, did the NAM drop the system it was trying to form in the Caribbean and bring towards the gulf?

Thanks :)


The NAM model is a good model to use once something has already developed and does a good job at a 48hr forecast. It should not be used to forecast the formation of a potential Cyclone.
Quoting TampaSpin:


The NAM model is a good model to use once something has already developed and does a good job at a 48hr forecast. It should not be used to forecast the formation of a potential Cyclone.


Correct but when you have other models that show the same thing, it makes you question development possibilities along the southeast coast.
Anyone know which infamous storm is approaching its 10 year anniversary? I anticipate quite a few retrospective news stories around here a couple weeks from now...
00z nam looks tasty
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Good little Gracie from 1959, the strongest hurricane to hit SC between 1893 and 1989:



Link

good write up on Hurricane Gracie
i am heading to savannah, ga on saturday. wha are the opinions of those in here as far as a likely effect from a storm there?
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Good little Gracie from 1959, the strongest hurricane to hit SC between 1893 and 1989:



Hope we dont see one with that track and intensity its eye would go over my house
Quoting floodzonenc:
Anyone know which infamous storm is approaching its 10 year anniversary? I anticipate quite a few retrospective news stories around here a couple weeks from now...


TOO easy Lenny, but there was also another Katrina. To which are your referring?
Lenny? Wasn't he that guy from Laverne and Shirley? LOL! I'm talking about the one that caused flooding of Biblical proportions...
(with some help from an earlier "menace")
Quoting floodzonenc:
Anyone know which infamous storm is approaching its 10 year anniversary? I anticipate quite a few retrospective news stories around here a couple weeks from now...

Hugo was not a nice one for those in his path...

Hi, y'all
Quoting WeatherMSK:


Correct but when you have other models that show the same thing, it makes you question development possibilities along the southeast coast.


When the other Major Models show development 48hrs out....I diffently use the NAM to look at the Intensity. It is very good at the 48hr intensity forecast....Too answer your question yes. Its just another model in agreement
Hugo was 1989
Hugo's turning 20 years old, and no he wasn't nice at all!
Quoting floodzonenc:
Anyone know which infamous storm is approaching its 10 year anniversary? I anticipate quite a few retrospective news stories around here a couple weeks from now...
If u mean Floyd, I already posted some nasty things about him and his anniversary last night......
Link

28w looks like something to watch too.
sept 15th floyd
Then you must mean Floyd. He was mentioned earlier in the blog. Devastating flooding but not the strongest
Floyd. The bringer of the Carolina pig crap river floods.
Cyclone Research Group is reporting that max sustained winds recorded by intercept team in Whitehead NS were at 78mph. Waves were VERY impressive. Video on the way....
Kanc thanks for the writeup!
Quoting BahaHurican:
If u mean Floyd, I already posted some nasty things about him and his anniversary last night......

Ding, ding, ding :) You are correct, sir! He and Dennis dropped about 25 inches of rain combined over parts of eastern NC. Took a canoe to my house to get food and baby supplies. The most surreal 2 weeks of my life!
Quoting floodzonenc:
Anyone know which infamous storm is approaching its 10 year anniversary? I anticipate quite a few retrospective news stories around here a couple weeks from now...


Hint: It's an "F" word
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Floyd. The bringer of the Carolina pig crap river floods.

Heard they still have that in the rivers coming from Smithfield farms.
Good night. Check in on Bill and our AOI in the morning, see everyone then. I should have a graphics update to post in the AM as well.
Floyd was the strongest hurricane of 1999, down to 921 mb
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Floyd. The bringer of the Carolina pig crap river floods.

LOL! Hope it didn't flow south!
Quoting floodzonenc:
Hugo's turning 20 years old, and no he wasn't nice at all!

Yeah, once you get past 30 years old, 20 years ago seems like 10 years ago. I am claiming senility.
Quoting TexasHurricane:


What alarming scenario? What graphic?
Sorry! I've been away for a while.

It was post #315. KEEPEROFTHEGATE 9:32 PM GMT on August 23, 2009

Alarming to me because t shows activity in the GOM!
Quoting listenerVT:


Hint: It's an "F" word

It's still an F word around here! As is Fran.
Quoting floodzonenc:

Ding, ding, ding :) You are correct, sir! He and Dennis dropped about 25 inches of rain combined over parts of eastern NC. Took a canoe to my house to get food and baby supplies. The most surreal 2 weeks of my life!
Yup. This is the one that wiped out a fingernail on me.... and the Bahamas had gotten swiped by Dennis, too. It's like Dennis dug a shallow groove and Floyd just rolled right down it....

I think I come by my dislike of F-storms naturally....
Quoting atmoaggie:

Yeah, once you get past 30 years old, 20 years ago seems like 10 years ago. I am claiming senility.


I am living proof... I remember tracking Hugo like it was just a little while ago. As bad as the damage was in SC, it's amazing that it hit Charlotte w/ hurricane force winds.
Quoting floodzonenc:

Ding, ding, ding :) You are correct, sir! He and Dennis dropped about 25 inches of rain combined over parts of eastern NC. Took a canoe to my house to get food and baby supplies. The most surreal 2 weeks of my life!


Hey I beat Bahahurican by 1 minute, don't I get at least 1 ding???
ON that note (Fa - a long long way to run) I'm out. Tomorrow is another early morning, unfortunately, so gotta turn in now.

See u subse!

Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
How much does a whole-house generator cost these days? I live in a small two-story townhouse.
depends on the size of the generator and the company you purchase from///could be in the 10-15 thousand range for your townhouse (depending on the squarefootage. If you have a HOA you would need to get approval, which might be difficult depending.
Quoting PortABeachBum:
Sorry! I've been away for a while.

It was post #315. KEEPEROFTHEGATE 9:32 PM GMT on August 23, 2009

Alarming to me because t shows activity in the GOM!


Huh?

Quoting atmoaggie:

Hugo was not a nice one for those in his path...


Hugo happened 20 years ago... I was in Puerto Rico when it hit. Pretty bad actually...
Quoting Grothar:


Hey I beat Bahahurican by 1 minute, don't I get at least 1 ding???
Hey, post numbers tell the whole story.... lol

G'nite!
Oh, sorry! A huge DING for Grothar... I am a little slow at keeping up w/ the blog:)
Night, Baha!
Quoting BahaHurican:
Hey, post numbers tell the whole story.... lol

G'nite!


Nite BahaHurican
Quoting hunkerdown:
depends on the size of the generator and the company you purchase from///could be in the 10-15 thousand range for your townhouse (depending on the squarefootage. If you have a HOA you would need to get approval, which might be difficult depending.


There are several homes in our complex that have them. I tried after Wilma..just a pain in the arse. HOA...gas company..laying concrete on the patio...etc....Would just love to find an all-in-one company that would handle all the details.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Huh?

Well! I hate to pursue this any further but if you go back to #315 you'll see what I mean! It won't be mentioned again by me!
G'evening from FIU, everyone.
just got on ... is the #1 anything i need to worry about in Tampa?
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Huh?



What exactly do you see? There is nothing there.
Quoting Grothar:


What exactly do you see? There is nothing there.


Exactly.
Y'all have a great night!
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


There are several homes in our complex that have them. I tried after Wilma..just a pain in the arse. HOA...gas company..laying concrete on the patio...etc....Would just love to find an all-in-one company that would handle all the details.
youve got mail
Ok gona take no reply as a no and go to bed...


G.night all
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Exactly.


Ohhhhhhh. I am just a little slow on the uptake. They must have seen the convection over the Yucatan, eh?
Thanks Hunker...Will keep in touch after some research.
Nothing in the immediate future for the GOM.
well bill was a fun storm too track and did not turn out too be a fish


i feel sorry for all the fishcasters that was saying bill would go out too sea
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Exactly.
Well, I do mention it again! The image that is disturbing is:Link . After a bit of juggling, I was able to find it on my own! Thanks for bearing with me.
Why do you feel sorry for them Taz? Is something bad going to happen to them?
Well GeorffreyWPB it looks as if we are the last two on the blog. Got to go. My wife is calling me a troll in 3 languages.
In German one says - Troll
In Swedish one says - troll
In Norwegian one says - troll (interesting, eh??)
Quoting Grothar:
Well GeorffreyWPB it looks as if we are the last two on the blog. Got to go. My wife is calling me a troll in 3 languages.
In German one says - Troll
In Swedish one says - troll
In Norwegian one says - troll (interesting, eh??)


Welcome to the blog and I enjoy your posts. Have a nice evening.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Why do you feel sorry for them Taz? Is something bad going to happen to them?



No lol that they need to start thinking a little more next time that not evere storm will go out too sea
Quoting PortABeachBum:
Sorry! I've been away for a while.

It was post #315. KEEPEROFTHEGATE 9:32 PM GMT on August 23, 2009

Alarming to me because t shows activity in the GOM!
the grapic shows poss normal tracks for tropical cyclones that dev. storms from just east of windward/leeward islands track across n cen carb into gom you can also get storms in west gom that track n and ne and cv systems now begin to mostly recurve up eastern seaboard
red arows are poss tracks


AOI/XX/XXL
MARK
16N/54W
Darn you KeeperoftheGate. Must you post those scary pictures before we go to sleep?????

Nite all. Stay well!
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
the grapic shows poss normal tracks for tropical cyclones that dev. storms from just east of windward/leeward islands track across n cen carb into gom you can also get storms in west gom that track n and ne and cv systems now begin to mostly recurve up eastern seaboard
red arows are poss tracks
Thanks KOG. I regret I may have caused concern because I did not understand the graphic. I will lurk but not disturb the blog in the future!
Redux...that ULL looks to be dissipating while the low is slowly getting organized.

Quoting PortABeachBum:
Thanks KOG. I regret I may have caused concern because I did not understand the graphic. I will lurk but not disturb the blog in the future!
your not disturbing the blog post away friend
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Redux...that ULL looks to be dissipating while the low is slowly getting organized.

looking at this image it appears to have a good lifting mech. with it could be orange alert at 2 am
may get another invest whats next 95L right
634. JLPR
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
looking at this image it appears to have a good lifting mech. with it could be orange alert at 2 am
may get another invest whats next 95L right


yep looking nice
I wonder how the next quickscat will look
I believe 92L is next
wasnt Bill 90L and Claudette 91L?
635. JLPR
maybe the circulation that is trying to form is in the new convection in the south side of the disturbance

The convection in the north side seems to be disconnecting from it and heading with the ULL
636. JLPR
Hello... ello ... ello? xD
i think your right either 92 or 93 ana with her many deaths mess it up iam almost sure navy had ana as 91 claudette as 92 the next will be 93
Maybe that wave east of the Leeward islands will turn into something like this.
you best be getting off that island if it does
it will be stronger than a three
We are 5 meters above high tide mark. Any storm strong enough to bring a surge like that will have winds strong enough to tear up the house.
StSimonsIslandGAGuy 5m whats that 25 feet
Definitely something stewing just east of the Islands - will be interested to see if it stays together tomorrow. Looks like lots of mixing going on in the windfield from different directions.

Of interest, take a look at the long range forecast of Bill. Will be passing by Ireland's NW coast on Tuesday night and Scotland's NE coast on Wednesday. I would assume that that massive windfield he's developed will still have some punch, especially on the SE side of the center. Ireland and Scotland might get quite a blow from this guy.
16 and a half feet above mean high tide.
We are actually on one of the highest parts of the island. The flood insurance rates are MUCH lower :)
and a c4 can bring 40 ft or more it would be gone nothing left but the dirt and water
648. BKM77
If something does form near where the AOI is right now what are the steering patterns favoring right now.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


There are several homes in our complex that have them. I tried after Wilma..just a pain in the arse. HOA...gas company..laying concrete on the patio...etc....Would just love to find an all-in-one company that would handle all the details.


My inlaws just got a generator to run the entire house(2200 sq ft.) It cost them around 8000 and that was for the generator , cement slab, and all the labor and installation .
You'd want to be higher than 16 feet... Ike last year was 21.5 feet.
652. JLPR
wave is still looking very good and getting better if it keeps it up we might have a orange circle tomorrow
StSimons -- not liking that Hurricane 7 reference. My little sis just moved to Savannah a few weeks ago. I told her to keep an eye on the tropics this time of year, and not to buy into any of that "Georgia is protected from hurricanes" crap she might be hearing from the locals. Wish she could see your tracking map of that hurricane. A little healthy fear and respect of nature is a good thing.
654. JRRP
Link
edit
latest image 345

AOI
Wunderful, there were at least 7 major hurricanes to hit GA in the 1800s and one very nasty hurricane in 1881 that is carried on the books as a Cat 2 but killed 700 people in Savannah in 1881.

This one hit about 30 miles south of Savannah.



This is the deadliest Cat 2 to ever hit the USA:



And this was the deadliest hurricane to make landfall on the US east coast in the 19th century:

wow new gfs 138 hours.
I can't find the Bermuda/Azores HIgh......WOW!
The train is heading West with that.
660. JLPR
Quoting THUNDERPR:
wow new gfs 138 hours.


yep GFS now is developing that new storm
and until now it looks like it thinks it will head west
Quoting iceman55:
TampaSpin that big high wowwwwwwww


Dam Site went down again........LOL
662. JLPR
Quoting TampaSpin:
I can't find the Bermuda/Azores HIgh......WOW!
The train is heading West with that.


That's a huge high!
663. JRRP
Quoting THUNDERPR:
wow new gfs 138 hours.

another hurricane ?
Well it looks like the tropics are dead once again, and anything that may devolop will probably be a fish anyway!!! I am liking this season! Nice and quite!
yes JLPR and look moves west only west.
Quoting JLPR:


yep GFS now is developing that new storm
and until now it looks like it thinks it will head west


NO Choice but, WEST....that High will be building West....This is not good.
Thanks for that info StSimons. I'll keep it in mind if my sister takes anything getting close a bit too lightly. She did go down to see the waves & surfers getting out into the surf from Bill. Already had to have a chat with her about riptides because of that. Got caught swimming in one of those myself for a little bit down in Cancun a few years ago -- that'll give you an up close and personal appreciation of the power of the sea right there! (And, as you can see, I did use my knowledge, swam diagonally, and am thus here writing to you today!) ;-)
the site down because is very very strong high lol
669. JLPR
Quoting THUNDERPR:
the site down because is very very strong high lol


lol xD
657: looks to me a strong tropical storm
671. JLPR
Quoting TampaSpin:


NO Choice but, WEST....that High will be building West....This is not good.


yep =S
we had a huge Hurricane with a huge through and now a huge high =P
Quoting TampaSpin:


NO Choice but, WEST....that High will be building West....This is not good.


Not good for who?? what did I miss? I was only gone for a few minutes...
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
latest image 345

AOI


that is one funky pic Keep. Looks like a cat on crack.
674. JRRP
Bill was supposed to move weste also
see the post 657 texas.
Quoting THUNDERPR:
the site down because is very very strong high lol


That little bugger doesn't want us to know what it's up to!
St Johns West is reporting a pressure of 976 mb and south winds of 3 mph. That must be the eye.
678. JLPR
Quoting JRRP:
Bill was supposed to move weste also


yep and Ana north =P
one can never trust the models so far out
Wunderful glad you knew to swim diagonally or to the side so that you could blog with us tonight :)
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
St Johns West is reporting a pressure of 976 mb and south winds of 3 mph. That must be the eye.
yep thats the centre passing over my hometown as we type
A newfie! Like Mr Cavanaugh!
Quoting JLPR:


yep and Ana north =P
one can never trust the models so far out


The first Ana cone was supposed to move over my house...no one else's...my house. Ugg.
Well I hope everyone there makes it though OK, but St. Johns gets much stronger noreasters with pressures below 950 mb with some frequency.
I want a good Canadian radar there.
685. JRRP
Quoting JLPR:


yep and Ana north =P
one can never trust the models so far out

yeah...
but one never know :P
It took me a minute to figure out what the heck was going on. I was swimming as hard as I could and was moving AWAY from shore. I stopped for a second to tread water, realized I was still moving out, and remembered something I saw on Discovery Channel about riptides and swam sideways about 50 meters. Then, I caught the countercurrent, and almost didn't even have to swim in to shore -- was basically carried there. That same week, I actually saw a 21 year old die in the surf due to a riptide -- it took two lifeguards to get him out of the surf, and they couldn't revive him once he got to shore. One of the lifeguards even had to take oxygen -- they were carried out nearly a half mile into the ocean. Don't mess with riptides -- they are killers.
Really poor ole Bill looks pretty non-tropical to me on that radar, have no good eye or even center signature at all.
To quiet in here...time for a musical interlude...

img src="" alt="" />
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Really poor ole Bill looks pretty non-tropical to me on that radar, have no good eye or even center signature at all.
its done just a wind event now fast mover too
anyway all iam out got to get some sleep work at 8 am be on around 630 7 for the days outlook see if we get an orange out of the aoi

later all
iam leaving big fish shows up

Ode to Bill...

img src="" alt="" />
696. JLPR
Im out =P
Im wondering what I will find tomorrow
after 11hours things can be very different xD
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
I want a good Canadian radar there.


Newfoundland RADAR

Link

698. TX2FL
Quoting TexasHurricane:


Not good for who?? what did I miss? I was only gone for a few minutes...


Not good for any of us..which of us specifically is to early to tell...
Nothing promising so far...

700. JRRP
Link
NOGAPS show it too
see you tomorrow
Quoting Elena85Vet:


Newfoundland RADAR

Link


actually he post the radar himself but anyways thanks for posting it though
The answer to Florida's hurricane shield. Don't you just love local television station reporting?



No Hurricanes - Thank Crist, Then God

Getty Images

Gov. Charlie Crist is holier than you and has the stats to prove it
By TODD WRIGHT
Updated 4:59 PM EDT, Fri, Aug 21, 2009


Getty Images
With a name so close to the son of God, you'd have to think Gov. Charlie Crist would have a little easier time getting the ear of the Big Fella in heaven.

Turns out, he kind of does, especially when it comes to hurricane season.

Crist told a group of reporters Friday that it's no coincidence the state hasn't been plagued by hurricanes during his tenure in office. (Click title for complete article)


Quoting LightningCharmer:
The answer to Florida's hurricane shield. Don't you just love local television station reporting?



No Hurricanes - Thank Crist, Then God

Getty Images

Gov. Charlie Crist is holier than you and has the stats to prove it
By TODD WRIGHT
Updated 4:59 PM EDT, Fri, Aug 21, 2009


Getty Images
With a name so close to the son of God, you’d have to think Gov. Charlie Crist would have a little easier time getting the ear of the Big Fella in heaven.

Turns out, he kind of does, especially when it comes to hurricane season.

Crist told a group of reporters Friday that it’s no coincidence the state hasn’t been plagued by hurricanes during his tenure in office. (Click title for complete of article)




thank goodness, I guess i wont be needing my canned goods anymore. seriously though wtf
The Canadian GEM (I know, Great Errors Mainly) produces a lot of QPF (precip) from the easterly wave to the SSE of the ULL (the area in the NHC yellow circle), in the 24-48 hour period and beyond. Like around 10 cm (4 inches) every 12 h. Now, as the ULL moves to the west, it is producing divergence over the wave. This is one positve factor for convection. If the CMC forecast is good, the convection should really expand overnight and tomorrow. Strong convection produces ascent in the mid and upper levels, and surface convergence of the wind. A big postive feeback loop. SO we should know within 36 hrs if there is any credibility to the current CMC global GEM run.



Link
---
The GOM and Carribean sure look quiet.

1 dead after wave from Bill takes group to sea
Girl, 7, was unresponsive when Coast Guard found her, 2 others off of Maine


I KNEW this was coming when I was looking at video of HUGE groups of people in the surf today off the NE coast. Rip currents usually kill a few people every year down here in Fla. In case anyone does not know, when you are stuck in rip currents DO NOT try to swim to shore. Go parellel to the beach until you feel the current subsiding, THEN try to swim ashore.. ;)
000
ABNT20 KNHC 240541
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT MON AUG 24 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
BILL...LOCATED ABOUT 90 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF CAPE RACE
NEWFOUNDLAND.

DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL
WAVE INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW ARE LOCATED ABOUT 450
MILES EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 20 TO 25 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS
THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/BROWN

Quoting LightningCharmer:
The answer to Florida's hurricane shield. Don't you just love local television station reporting?



No Hurricanes - Thank Crist, Then God

Getty Images

Gov. Charlie Crist is holier than you and has the stats to prove it
By TODD WRIGHT
Updated 4:59 PM EDT, Fri, Aug 21, 2009


Getty Images
With a name so close to the son of God, you’d have to think Gov. Charlie Crist would have a little easier time getting the ear of the Big Fella in heaven.

Turns out, he kind of does, especially when it comes to hurricane season.

Crist told a group of reporters Friday that it’s no coincidence the state hasn’t been plagued by hurricanes during his tenure in office. (Click title for complete of article)




OHHHH BOY!!!! Get the boots quick cause it's getting thick here.. LOL
000
WTNT33 KNHC 240544
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE BILL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 35A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009
200 AM AST MON AUG 24 2009

...BILL MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND...HURRICANE FORCE
WIND GUSTS REPORTED AT CAPE RACE...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NEWFOUNDLAND FROM
BURGEO EASTWARD AROUND THE AVALON PENINSULA AND NORTHWARD TO FOGO
ISLAND. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM PARSONS POND
TO BURGEO ON THE WEST AND SOUTH COAST AND FROM FOGO ISLAND TO
HARBOUR DEEP ON THE NORTHEAST COAST.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED
STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

AT 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BILL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 47.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 53.6 WEST OR ABOUT 90 MILES...
145 KM...NORTH-NORTHWEST OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND.

BILL IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR.
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT AND MONDAY. ON
THE FORECAST TRACK THE CENTER OF BILL WILL EXIT THE EAST COAST OF
SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. BILL IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND BILL IS
EXPECTED TO LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS LATER TODAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 275
MILES...445 KM. A WEATHER OBSERVING SITE IN CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
RECENTLY REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 58 MPH...93 KM/HR...WITH A
GUST TO 82 MPH...131 KM/HR.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 MB...28.94 INCHES.

TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED NEAR THE TRACK OF BILL ACROSS
NEWFOUNDLAND.

LARGE AND DANGEROUS SWELLS IMPACTING THE ATLANTIC MARITIMES OF
CANADA WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TODAY.

...SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...47.9N 53.6W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...EAST-NORTHEAST OR 60 DEGREES AT 40 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB


THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN


Its so sad!When people dont listen to the warning an go in the water. We lost a man here in brevard Co. Fla.....
Check out what GFS Models are picking up for 12 days from now. Link

US East coast maybe a threat area? To far to tell, would be interested to see how the model predicts future. Maybe it can predict me the winning numbers of the lottery next!
Central Pacific Hurricane Center
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #8
TROPICAL CYCLONE HILDA (EP112009)
9:00 AM UTC August 24 2009
=============================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Hilda (999 hPa) located at 14.3N 144.1W or 710 east-southeast of Hilo Hawaii has sustained winds of 55 knots with a gust of 65 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 10 knots.

Gale/Storm-force Winds
==================
70 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
======================
12 HRS: - 14.7N 145.7W - 55 knots (Tropical Storm)
24 HRS: - 15.0N 147.6W - 60 knots (Tropical Storm)
48 HRS: - 15.2N 151.3W - 65 knots (SSHS-1 Cyclone)
72 HRS: - 15.1N 154.3W - 70 knots (SSHS-1 Cyclone)
good morning looks like the process of cyclone formation is beginning to take shape just east of the windwards probally follow its big brother footsteps. way to go usa world championship of surfing formally the australians had a stranglehold on the championship. you know they'll be hungry and want it back in two more yrs
Hurricane Andrew made landfall in South Florida on Monday morning, August 24, 1992...


Hurricane Andrew 1992 - As It Happened...(Part 1)
Link
QS showing weak surface low near 12N 30W. Very little convection
Quoting TampaSpin:
I just completed a Tropical Update if anyone would like to view.
Quoting TampaSpin:
I just completed a Tropical Update if anyone would like to view.
I like your informative website or blog,however not everyone has a super fast computer,it takes forever to download your site...
Morning all....

Looking at that AOI off the Lesser Antilles and am Not At ALL Happy with what I am seeing.... classic WNW tracking will end up with something similar to about a dozen horrible storms across the NE Antilles, possibly Hispaniola, and the Bahamas.....

Well, maybe it won't make much of itself.... (looking on the cheerier side lol)

Have a great day, ya'll! I'm out for now.
Quoting alpharenz:
Check out what GFS Models are picking up for 12 days from now. Link

US East coast maybe a threat area? To far to tell, would be interested to see how the model predicts future. Maybe it can predict me the winning numbers of the lottery next!


NOGAPS has basically same scenario and shows it moving up East coast.
looking at models 7-12 days from now. we are in the middle of cv season all it takes is 6 to 12 hrs to get something going. lots of fair weather clouds in the cent. atlantic. sign of cooler water
456 there is this small area of cyclonic turning near 11n 29w. is this the system the models are hinting of tropical development. QS this morning showed a weak surface low in the area
Quoting Randyman:
Hurricane Andrew made landfall in South Florida on Monday morning, August 24, 1992...


Hurricane Andrew 1992 - As It Happened...(Part 1)
Link


EERIE!! I was watching all this coverage here in Miami & around this time right now I was one of 3 people huddled in our bathroom thinking we were dead for sure.....
Aug. 24th 1992 a day I will NEVER forget ;)
Quoting stoormfury:
456 there is this small area of cyclonic turning near 11n 29w. is this the system the models are hinting of tropical development. QS this morning showed a weak surface low in the area


some models pick up that area while others are hinting another area behind
thanks again 456. well it looks like another interesting week in the tropics
Thundershowers here in Saint Kitts, welcomed rains

BBL
Good morning...
Post 702 - Wow - he's got the connection -wonder if he could order up some pleasant groundswell in the gulf to surf....
I am thinking just inland over Florida, and tracking North as a Cat 2
734. WAHA
I made another update.
Quoting sebastianflorida:
I am thinking just inland over Florida, and tracking North as a Cat 2


I'm thinking how many wishcasters are going to be posting here today, without backing up there statements..let's just leave it to the pro's that know what they are talking about..and not just speculating. last year SFLA WAS VERY LUCKY..Lets hope the trend continues. I am sure not looking or wishing for any storms, and I can say majority of ppl living in florida, are wishing the same thing..just my 2 cents.
Quoting justalurker:


I'm thinking how many wishcasters are going to be posting here today, without backing up there statements..let's just leave it to the pro's that know what they are talking about..and not just speculating. last year SFLA WAS VERY LUCKY..Lets hope the trend continues. I am sure not looking or wishing for any storms, and I can say majority of ppl living in florida, are wishing the same thing..just my 2 cents.
my two cents never makes it west of the bahamas then recurves
Quoting victoria780:
I like your informative website or blog,however not everyone has a super fast computer,it takes forever to download your site...


Post 721.. Especially if you're trying to do it twice. :P
does any body know how far this trough is suppose to dip too, will it make it to SFLA? and how will this other low effect it?
739. IKE
WZEP AM 1460 DeFuniak Springs, FL, DeFuniak Springs, Florida (PWS)
Updated: 3 sec ago
Clear
59.5 °F

Clear
Humidity: 98%
Dew Point: 59 °F
Wind: 0.0 mph
Wind Gust: 0.0 mph
Pressure: 29.97 in (Rising)
Visibility: 7.0 miles
UV: 0 out of 16
Clouds:
Clear -
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 174 ft


AOI/XX/XXL
MARK
17N/55W
742. IKE
Look for the yellow blob to get tagged an invest, soon.

Several models develop it as it goes up the east coast of the USA.

Last advisory written on Bill.
So far... ECMWF, GFS, NOGAPS, CMC, and UKM are agreeing on development of the TW E of the Leeward Islands. CMC of course being the most aggressive to start with and interesting enough all models due expect this one to be at least a strong TS at later period(s).

As you can see on SAT... the convection remains quite disorganized. As of 09Z 850MB VORT MAX is located ~15N 58W and based on the past 6 to 9 hours, it has been moving WNW at a good clip.

If this energy is the actual focus and assuming it does not relocate or a new "focus" develops further north then I would expect a track a tad further to the south and what the models are currently predicting. Time will tell and hopefully we'll get W ATL CIMSS updates soon.

Finally, this convection is being enhanced by a TUTT to the NW of this system which is expected to shift SW... and therefore allowing for development, but if it doesn't do this then development will take longer or not happen. I guess we'll see how the system evolves and well as models through these upcoming days.
Quoting IKE:
Look for the yellow blob to get tagged an invest, soon.

Several models develop it as it goes up the east coast of the USA.

Last advisory written on Bill.


RIP bill nice to know you..nice to storm to analyze, but glad your gone..
745. IKE
Quoting justalurker:


RIP bill nice to know you..nice to storm to analyze, but glad your gone..


Should help the ACE #'s in the Atlantic....36 advisories.
Quoting justalurker:
does any body know how far this trough is suppose to dip too, will it make it to SFLA? and how will this other low effect it?


There's supposed to be a trough split development in the C GOM within the next couple days. So due to its amplitude it could be close to SFLA. Of course the exact strength and location of it will be known once it develops as models have different degrees of strength associated with it.
Quoting WxLogic:


There's supposed to be a trough split development in the C GOM within the next couple days. So due to its amplitude it could be close to SFLA. Of course the exact strength and location of it will be known once it develops as models have different degrees of strength associated with it.


I hope we dont get caught off guard, it sure seems to close for comfort..hope its another wave just passing thru.
Quoting IKE:
Look for the yellow blob to get tagged an invest, soon.

Several models develop it as it goes up the east coast of the USA.

Last advisory written on Bill.



what are you talking about ike?
and good morning btw
749. IKE
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON AUG 24 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS ISSUED THE LAST ADVISORY ON
BILL...WHICH LOST ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS WHILE LOCATED ABOUT
190 MILES NORTHEAST OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND.

DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL
WAVE INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW ARE LOCATED ABOUT 350
MILES EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 20 TO 25 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS
THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/KIMBERLAIN
spoke to soon its out
751. IKE
Quoting K8eCane:



what are you talking about ike?
and good morning btw


Good morning...good coffee...

From the Tallahassee,FL. extended....

"THE
GFS AND EURO SHOW A TROPICAL SYSTEM IN THE VICINITY OF THE NORTHERN
BAHAMAS THURSDAY AND OFF THE EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST FRIDAY. BOTH
MODELS THEN LIFT THIS SYSTEM RAPIDLY TO THE NORTHEAST WITH POSSIBLE
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OVER THE WEEKEND."
Quoting IKE:
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON AUG 24 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS ISSUED THE LAST ADVISORY ON
BILL...WHICH LOST ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS WHILE LOCATED ABOUT
190 MILES NORTHEAST OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND.

DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL
WAVE INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW ARE LOCATED ABOUT 350
MILES EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 20 TO 25 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS
THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/KIMBERLAIN



been saying the same thing for the pas few updates
oh ok
might not be good
So which model or group of models best predicted Bill's track up the East Coast, and intesity shifts?
still another wk to go in august hope this troughing continues through sept
Quoting Tazmanian:



been saying the same thing for the pas few updates


They've been saying 'Development..if any.. is expected to be slow to occur' now they say 'Some slow development is possible'
03L/BILL/COMPLETE TRACK FROM START TO FINISH

REMARKS:
240900Z POSITION NEAR 48.6N 50.2W OR APPROX 25NM NNE OF ST.
JOHNS, NF. 12 FT SEAS: 150NM NE, 420NM SE, 600NM SW, 120NM NW.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE NAVAL MARITIME
FORECAST CENTER-NORFOLK (NAVMARFCSTCEN NORFOLK VA). THE SYSTEM
WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.//
BT
#0001
NNNN
0309081206 108N 185W 25
0309081212 110N 194W 25
0309081218 112N 203W 25
0309081300 114N 211W 25
0309081306 115N 219W 25
0309081312 116N 225W 25
0309081318 116N 232W 25
0309081400 116N 240W 25
0309081406 118N 251W 25
0309081412 118N 272W 25
0309081418 118N 292W 25
0309081500 118N 307W 25
0309081506 118N 320W 30
0309081512 115N 333W 30
0309081518 112N 345W 35
0309081600 112N 355W 35
0309081606 115N 365W 40
0309081612 120N 378W 50
0309081612 120N 378W 50
0309081618 126N 394W 55
0309081618 126N 394W 55
0309081700 131N 413W 60
0309081700 131N 413W 60
0309081706 135N 432W 65
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0309081712 139N 446W 80
0309081712 139N 446W 80
0309081712 139N 446W 80
0309081718 144N 460W 80
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0309081718 144N 460W 80
0309081800 148N 476W 85
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0309081800 148N 476W 85
0309081806 153N 490W 85
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0309081812 157N 503W 90
0309081812 157N 503W 90
0309081812 157N 503W 90
0309081818 162N 517W 95
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0309081818 162N 517W 95
0309081900 169N 529W 110
0309081900 169N 529W 110
0309081900 169N 529W 110
0309081906 176N 542W 115
0309081906 176N 542W 115
0309081906 176N 542W 115
0309081912 183N 556W 115
0309081912 183N 556W 115
0309081912 183N 556W 115
0309081918 193N 569W 115
0309081918 193N 569W 115
0309081918 193N 569W 115
0309082000 202N 582W 115
0309082000 202N 582W 115
0309082000 202N 582W 115
0309082006 211N 596W 115
0309082006 211N 596W 115
0309082006 211N 596W 115
0309082012 221N 610W 105
0309082012 221N 610W 105
0309082012 221N 610W 105
0309082018 232N 626W 110
0309082018 232N 626W 110
0309082018 232N 626W 110
0309082100 243N 638W 110
0309082100 243N 638W 110
0309082100 243N 638W 110
0309082106 255N 649W 105
0309082106 255N 649W 105
0309082106 255N 649W 105
0309082112 269N 658W 100
0309082112 269N 658W 100
0309082112 269N 658W 100
0309082118 286N 666W 95
0309082118 286N 666W 95
0309082118 286N 666W 95
0309082200 302N 673W 90
0309082200 302N 673W 90
0309082200 302N 673W 90
0309082206 322N 682W 90
0309082206 322N 682W 90
0309082206 322N 682W 90
0309082212 341N 685W 85
0309082212 341N 685W 85
0309082212 341N 685W 85
0309082218 360N 689W 80
0309082218 360N 689W 80
0309082218 360N 689W 80
0309082300 381N 684W 75
0309082300 381N 684W 75
0309082300 381N 684W 75
0309082306 401N 673W 75
0309082306 401N 673W 75
0309082306 401N 673W 75
0309082312 424N 654W 75
0309082312 424N 654W 75
0309082312 424N 654W 75
0309082318 444N 625W 70
0309082318 444N 625W 70
0309082318 444N 625W 70
0309082400 463N 579W 65
0309082400 463N 579W 65
0309082400 463N 579W 65
0309082406 480N 530W 60
0309082406 480N 530W 60
Quoting IKE:


Good morning...good coffee...

From the Tallahassee,FL. extended....

"THE
GFS AND EURO SHOW A TROPICAL SYSTEM IN THE VICINITY OF THE NORTHERN
BAHAMAS THURSDAY AND OFF THE EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST FRIDAY. BOTH
MODELS THEN LIFT THIS SYSTEM RAPIDLY TO THE NORTHEAST WITH POSSIBLE
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OVER THE WEEKEND."


Good...my lawn needs more rain...gag.
Quoting biff4ugo:
So which model or group of models best predicted Bill's track up the East Coast, and intesity shifts?


Track = GFS
Intensity = LGEM

Don't know about intensity shifts.
Good morning storm nice quiet morning atlantic all clear bill is gone now we wait
Good morning all.
763. P451
AOI - WV



AOI - AVN



AOI - 200MB WINDS (Note the ULL moving over Hispaniola and into the Carribean in this loop)


It looks like the t-wave just east of the Leewards is more vigorous today, but should not develop as long as the ULL is close to it - you can see the southwesterly shear's effect on the t-wave on satellite pictures. I would guess that the folks along the Carolina coasts would have to watch the t-wave to see if it develops over the next three days, as it may head that way eventually.

The disturbance west of the African coast has quieted down - nothing too impressive out that way, so during much of this week, the focus will be on the t-wave to see if it develops in a couple of days or not.
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Track = GFS
Intensity = LGEM

Don't know about intensity shifts.

Really? GDFL and HWRF just totally missed it?
766. IKE
Charleston,SC extended discussion...

"FRI THROUGH SUNDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE TROPICAL LOW PRES
IN SOME FORM WILL PASS N OF THE BAHAMAS FRI THEN STEER N AND
EVENTUALLY NE ALONG THE GULF STREAM EARLY SAT AND WELL NE OF OUR
REGION OVER THE WEEKEND.
WE HAVE FORECAST CHANCE POPS FRI INTO
SAT...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON SUNDAY. FORECAST TEMPERATURES
FAIRLY CLOSE TO CLIMO THROUGHOUT.
-- End Changed Discussion --"

'morning all:

I leave Bermuda today. During my layover, I was able to look at all the footage that came out of here over the weekend.

The footage I got thru the day and into the night trumps anything I've see yet. Some of the shots are very intense. Some of the most telling video I shot was at St. George's harbor area when I went right into the malestrom. I took the camera right up to the edge.

I'm still planning on producing a series on YouTube that will include every TC our team intercepts this year...releasing them late winter 2010. It's quite a wait for some of you, but it will be well worth it as production value will increase the longer I have to work on it.

From today's tropical weather standpoint, I'm wondering if I'll be getting on another airplane this weekend. We'll see.
Quoting StormW:
Good morning!


Good morning to you and everyone else!
770. MahFL
I see some curving of the clouds on our blob east of the Winwards.
772. P451
All 3 develop the AOI. GFS makes it weak, develops it late, and moves it out to sea. GFS and NGP with a cape verde system. CMC and NGP agree on AOI heading towards NJ/NY/CT region.

00Z CMC



06Z GFS



00Z NGP (Last half of loop NGPs jumps from 6hr to 12hr frame intervals - that's not a sudden jump in storm speed)

Thank you P451. Very helpful entry.
Quoting Randyman:
Hurricane Andrew made landfall in South Florida on Monday morning, August 24, 1992...


Hurricane Andrew 1992 - As It Happened...(Part 1)
Link


Wow... I can't beleive it was 17 years ago.

I still remember what the weather was like the day before.. Not a cloud in the sky, hot and very humid.

I didn't go through the most intense part of Andrew as I lived up in Broward county.... But still remember it well.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
237 AM EDT MON AUG 24 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --A WEAK FRONT WILL REMAIN STATIONARY OVER THE INLAND SECTIONS
TODAY...THEN DRIFT E AND DISSIPATE TONIGHT. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD
OVER THE AREA TUE AND WED. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST ALONG THE OFFSHORE WATERS LATE IN THE WEEK AND EARLY
NEXT WEEKEND.-- End Changed Discussion --
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 255 PM SUN...A TROPICAL WAVE MOVES INTO THE BAHAMAS
WEDNESDAY THEN DEVELOPS INTO A LOW AND LIFTS NORTH NORTHEAST
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...PASSING JUST EAST OF CAPE HATTERAS ON
SATURDAY. THE 12Z GFS HAS THIS AS A RATHER SIGNIFICANT FEATURE.
FOR ITS AFFECTS ON OUR WEATHER I WILL FOLLOW THE HPC SOLUTION
WHICH IS MUCH LESS AMPLIFIED. ON SUNDAY THE LOW WILL BE OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. FOR NOW
WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THEN CHANCE
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
Well,we escaped Bill this weekend,wonder if we will do the same the coming weekend,should be interesting.
777. P451
Bye Bye Billy

Quoting FLGatorCaneNut:


Wow... I can't beleive it was 17 years ago.

I still remember what the weather was like the day before.. Not a cloud in the sky, hot and very humid.

I didn't go through the most intense part of Andrew as I lived up in Broward county.... But still remember it well.


17 years! wow My son was just learning to talk. You couldn't get away from the media coverage down here. Rick Sanchez. My sons first words were Mom, DAd and Hurricane Andreeeeeeeewwww.


779. IKE
NYC,NY extended discussion...

"THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH ESTABLISHES ITSELF ACROSS EASTERN CANADA
WITH SEASONABLE TO SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS TO END THE
WEEK. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM NEXT WEEKEND WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION INTO THE AREA FRI NIGHT INTO SAT ALONG AND AHEAD OF
A WARM FRONT WITH ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY WITH THE COLD FRONT NEXT
SUN. IN ADDITION...THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE ALSO HINTING AT A
POSSIBLE TROPICAL WAVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATE IN THE WEEK.
THE POSITION OF THE MEAN TROUGH AT THIS TIME WOULD KEEP SUCH A
SYSTEM OFFSHORE.
SUCH DETAILS THOUGH WILL NEED TO BE REFINED WITH
TIME."

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
715 AM EDT MON AUG 24 2009


...COULD SEE SOME UNSETTLED WX FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. MODELS STILL
SEEM TO LIKE THE TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY A FEW HUNDRED MILES EAST
OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...AND AGREE ON BRINGING IT THRU THE BAHAMAS
AND LIFTING NORTH SOMEWHERE OFF OUR COAST. STILL PLENTY OF
UNCERTAINTY TO GO AROUND...BUT WILL ADVERTISE SOLID CHANCE POPS
FRI-SAT AND KNOCK TEMPS BACK JUST ON THE LOW SIDE OF CLIMO.


The Coast Guard says three people were
rescued at Acadia National Park in Maine and no others are believed
to be missing after a large wave washed over a crowd watching the
surf.
Coast Guard Petty Officer 3rd Class James Rhodes says the wave
crashed over about 20 people. The man, a 12-year-old girl and
7-year-old girl who didn't make it back to shore on their own were
rescued by a 47-foot Coast Guard vessel.
The Coast Guard says the 7-year-old girl later died.
Florida officials say a 54-year-old man has died in rough waves fueled by Hurricane Bill.
Volusia County Beach Patrol Capt. Scott Petersohn says Angel
Rosa of Orlando washed ashore unconscious Saturday afternoon on New
Smyrna Beach.

Will people ever heed the warnings about these storms,even when they don't hit land? Sad story about the little girl
Quoting HopquickSteve:

Really? GDFL and HWRF just totally missed it?


No, not totally missed. I would say GFDL 2nd, HWRF 3rd, both not far behind GFS. UKMET and NOGAPS the worst.
783. MahFL
Nature will prune out the stupid from the gene pool.... Unfortuneatly it creeps back in ad infernitem.
Quoting MahFL:
Nature will prune out the stupid from the gene pool.... Unfortuneatly it creeps back in ad infernitem.


Yeh,I agree,have no sympathy for the stupid,but putting the kids at risk,is what gets to me.Our children expect the adults to make the right decisions,not thinking the adults are the stupid ones.
Quoting NEwxguy:
Well,we escaped Bill this weekend,wonder if we will do the same the coming weekend,should be interesting.
Local Mets are actually talking about tropical weather this weekend coming to Long Island - hopefully that is not the case
good morning guys our atlantic AOI has got stronger in 850mb vort
92L as we speak
Looks like it is developing.
AL 92 2009082412 BEST 0 165N 560W 20 0 DB
Good-bye to Bill.
This is the last Graphics Update on Bill.




Quoting IKE:
NYC,NY extended discussion...

"THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH ESTABLISHES ITSELF ACROSS EASTERN CANADA
WITH SEASONABLE TO SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS TO END THE
WEEK. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM NEXT WEEKEND WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION INTO THE AREA FRI NIGHT INTO SAT ALONG AND AHEAD OF
A WARM FRONT WITH ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY WITH THE COLD FRONT NEXT
SUN. IN ADDITION...THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE ALSO HINTING AT A
POSSIBLE TROPICAL WAVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATE IN THE WEEK.
THE POSITION OF THE MEAN TROUGH AT THIS TIME WOULD KEEP SUCH A
SYSTEM OFFSHORE.
SUCH DETAILS THOUGH WILL NEED TO BE REFINED WITH
TIME."



Looks like it's going to take a bit for this trough to clear out and high pressure to recover, if ever. Bill and this early season trough have dished out quite a blow on stability in the basin. Maybe they will all re-curve this year.
Deep convection continues to fire with now 92L
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
AL 92 2009082412 BEST 0 165N 560W 20 0 DB
where do you get this stuff from
794. IKE
Quoting TheCaneWhisperer:


Looks like it's going to take a bit for this trough to clear out and high pressure to recover, if ever. Bill and this early season trough have dished out quite a blow on stability in the basin. Maybe they will all re-curve this year.


From what I've seen with the models, another trough with head into the SE USA this weekend.
Quoting IKE:


From what I've seen with the models, another trough with head into the SE USA this weekend.


Yup
Quoting wunderkidcayman:



ATCF
797. ackee
why does the navy web site always have invest before any of the other site
Vamco has that pentagon shaped eye, strong cyclone.

there is also strong 850mb vorticity in an area 11n 30w in association with a tropical wave. QS this morning showed an area of low pressure. although convection is not significant, it has been on the increase the past few hours
800. P451
Hilda may threaten Hawaii. This is how Hurricanes can and do hit Hawaii - from the south.

Link

They motor along or south of 15N. Around 155W they are influenced by an approaching NW trough and are turned north and come in from the south.

There, they have the warm water to maintain hurricane strength.

Whereas systems that come in from the east of Hawaii have no chance due to cooler waters and ever present wind shear from the west.

Keep an eye on Hilda.
The first graphics update on 92L:


INV/92L/XX
Dr. M's update shall be interesting! The blog should start getting much more active considering we now have a new invest.
Quoting ackee:
why does the navy web site always have invest before any of the other site


They get their data from the ATCF system and update in real-time.

General tc_info information page
806. 7544
now we have 92l models should show it going wnw then recurving east of the bahammas or will the high be stonger to take it further west till the trof catches it tia
2009 Storms
All Active Year


Atlantic
92L.INVEST

East Pacific
93E.INVEST

Central Pacific
94C.INVEST
11E.HILDA

West Pacific
98W.INVEST
11W.VAMCO

Indian Ocean


Will be interesting to see if this thing rides up the eastern sea board.
809. P451
Quoting AllStar17:
Dr. M's update shall be interesting! The blog should start getting much more active considering we now have a new invest.


Agreed and given the models it would appear this is an east coast threat. North Carolina to New England need to watch this immediately.

CMC and NGP takes it on a path that reminds me of Hurricane Gloria of 1985. GFS wants it to stay weak and barely develops it and not until it's far out to sea - but I think that will change.

AL 92 2009082312 BEST 0 140N 480W 20 1011 DB
AL 92 2009082318 BEST 0 146N 500W 20 1011 DB
AL 92 2009082400 BEST 0 152N 520W 20 1011 DB
AL 92 2009082406 BEST 0 159N 540W 20 1011 DB
AL 92 2009082412 BEST 0 165N 560W 20 1009 DB
Quoting AllStar17:
The first graphics update on 92L:


Nice going.
813. IKE
Quoting StormW:


Admin, please pardon the language...but things like this really PISS ME OFF!


Parents should be criminally charged.

Memo to mom and dad: Couldn't you have just taken her to a swimming pool somewhere?
814. Relix
I knew it was gonna pull a Jeanne =(
815. P451
While the new invest is forming far more west than Gloria did - and I'm not trying to compare the storms in ANY way - the track Gloria took is just what the NGP and CMC want this new invest to take.

GLORIA - 1985


I recall that storm like it was yesterday. 75-85 winds here in east central NJ. Coastal towns flooded up to their second floors even though it was low tide when she passed us by. Got grazed by the eye.

I live exatly on the western piece of the eyewall in this image.

816. P451
Quoting StormW:


Admin, please pardon the language...but things like this really PISS ME OFF!


We knew that we were going to be reading about things like this. It's unfortunate but every time we get a storm affecting the eastern seaboard people just cannot resist getting too close or entering the surf and it results in things like this.

Unfortunately commonplace.

Quoting IKE:


Parents should be criminally charged.

Memo to mom and dad: Couldn't you have just taken her to a swimming pool somewhere?
I guess you were right yesterday, i spoke of my concerns about this..oh well, thats just sad.
Quoting IKE:


Parents should be criminally charged.

Memo to mom and dad: Couldn't you have just taken her to a swimming pool somewhere?


Keeping her at safe distance from waters edge would have sufficed.
819. 7544
Quoting Relix:
I knew it was gonna pull a Jeanne =(


how is that didnt jean hit fla this should turn north way before
820. IKE
Quoting Elena85Vet:


Keeping her at safe distance from waters edge would have sufficed.


True.

Also...keeping 2 eyes on your kids at ALL times.
821. Relix
Quoting 7544:


how is that didnt jean hit fla this should turn north way before


I am in PR =P. Jeanne formed in front of us and hit us as a 70MPH Tropical Storm. To this day I am still surprised that happened in the atlantic =P.
822. IKE
Pretty good indication where 92L is going to go by looking at a water vapor image....

The eye of Gloria almost went right over Long Beach, LI, where I lived.
AL92


...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 16.5N LONCUR = 56.0W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR = 20KT
LATM12 = 15.2N LONM12 = 52.0W DIRM12 = 289DEG SPDM12 = 20KT
LATM24 = 14.0N LONM24 = 48.0W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 0NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
Quoting IKE:


True.

Also...keeping 2 eyes on your kids at ALL times.
first of all, I have 2 kids of my own, and whenever a storm watch is posted my kids are not allowed to leave the house for any reason at all..it's the responsibility of the parents to put therefoot down..
Quoting IKE:
Pretty good indication where 92L is going to go by looking at a water vapor image....


Can you be more specific? The big East Coast Surfing Championship is the weekend in Virginia Beach. WAVES again for the contest?
Quoting StormW:


Admin, please pardon the language...but things like this really PISS ME OFF!


Storm couldn't agree with you more,this story really bothered me this weekend,becuase it was so unnecessary,this area they were on is a popular tourist area to watch waves,but the officials had closed it,but these geniuses decided they were smarter than officials.
Quoting IKE:
Pretty good indication where 92L is going to go by looking at a water vapor image....



Yup, due west.
Disregard the loop, but 92L could be similar to a Hanna track.

Quoting IKE:
Pretty good indication where 92L is going to go by looking at a water vapor image....



Where would that be?
Quoting Relix:


I am in PR =P. Jeanne formed in front of us and hit us as a 70MPH Tropical Storm. To this day I am still surprised that happened in the atlantic =P.



Not everyone lives in the United States right? lol.
Morning! I see we have 92L, might become Danny.
834. 7544
Quoting WeatherStudent:


Yup, due west.



i believe if the ull holds on it will drag it along with it yeap i say west for now
Quoting Acemmett90:


Gradually coagulating convection around what may become the center. Becoming gradually better organized.
Big eastcoast trough is like a force-field. No storms coming thru there.
Quoting P451: recall that storm like it was yesterday. 75-85 winds here in east central NJ. Coastal towns flooded up to their second floors even though it was low tide when she passed us by. Got grazed by the eye.

I remember Gloria well too she descended upon Southeastern VA during my college days at ODU. The storm was well-covered by local news and everyone was ready with food supplies and candles, etc. Good practice for moving to South Florida in the early 2000's.
Quoting Elena85Vet:


Keeping her at safe distance from waters edge would have sufficed.

I have an 8 year old daughter, she surfs, she was not allowed in the water this weekend. I guess if this was my situation, I would have jumped in after her risking everything. If she is gone my life is over anyway. Prayers for the family.
Morning again...
Lets wait a bit for determining the track of this system. It all depends on where the center forms, at which point we could get a more accurate handle on the track. This is the first set of models on this system.
841. IKE
Quoting SeVaSurfer:

Can you be more specific? The big East Coast Surfing Championship is the weekend in Virginia Beach. WAVES again for the contest?


Looks like it.

Troughs in the east will protect the gulf coast.
Quoting WxLogic:
Morning again...


Good morning.
last few days the blog has been free of westcasters, very informative, now watch this blog blow up like a wild fire..geezz

it never fails..
Good bye to Bill, but hello 92L.
Quoting IKE:


Looks like it.

Troughs in the east will protect the gulf coast.

Thanks Man!
Storm, that is some hot water for anything to be brewing in...This may not be good for someone.
Good Morning All!
849. IKE
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Big eastcoast trough is like a force-field. No storms coming thru there.


Hopefully the pattern will hold through September and if it does, the GOM waters will be cooling off.
Quoting StormW:


Admin, please pardon the language...but things like this really PISS ME OFF!

Morning...
it is very angering Storm. I heard they shut the beaches, so the "observers" had to go out on the rocks...do people still not understand the tremendous force of water and what can happen? If ya wanna be stupid, fine...but don't impose it on your kids. That little girls should not have died.
Quoting StormW:

Hey are you going to be posting your Tropical Report this morning, always look forward to reading those, Regards.
852. IKE
Quoting justalurker:
last few days the blog has been free of westcasters, very informative, now watch this blog blow up like a wild fire..geezz

it never fails..


They can west-cast all they want to. This one's headed up the east coast.
853. 7544
all this talk about a bahamma wave the cmc was showing this is not 92l right that one is yet to form correct
Now we have 92L, I'm guessing we could have orange circle today, and maybe a red circle tommorow or Wednesday, and a TD sometime this week if it continues to organize.
Quoting IKE:


They can west-cast all they want to. This one's headed up the east coast.


Which means it will impact a bunch of people from Georgia, northward.
Quoting 7544:


how is that didnt jean hit fla this should turn north way before
Jeanne went up the Fla East coast offshore, then looped around and came back.
Quoting IKE:


True.

Also...keeping 2 eyes on your kids at ALL times.


The parents of this child will pay the ultimate price for their negligence. They'll spend the rest of their lives thinking 'coulda', shoulda', woulda.'
Quoting 7544:
all this talk about a bahamma wave the cmc was showing this is not 92l right that one is yet to form correct


92L was forecast to move into the Bahamas and merge with the remnants of a dying cold front and form a tropical system, according to most models.
Quoting SeVaSurfer:

I have an 8 year old daughter, she surfs, she was not allowed in the water this weekend. I guess if this was my situation, I would have jumped in after her risking everything. If she is gone my life is over anyway. Prayers for the family.


The problem was everyone there was swept into the sea,about 20 or so people,noone to jump in to save here,coast guard pulled the adult a 12 yr old and the 7 yr old out,but couldn't revive the 7 yr old.
862. IKE
There is a wave in the Caribbean, but it looks headed due west into Nicaragua and Honduras.
Looking as small as Carlos.
864. P451
Quoting WeatherStudent:


Yup, due west.


Actually I think it's going to move on the Z axis and hit the moon.

It's about as credible as anything you seem to have to say about any given storm.

Your shtick is very old and boring.
Looking at the moment like this will be TD 12-E at 11.
Quoting IKE:


They can west-cast all they want to. This one's headed up the east coast.

Hey Ike.
Any chances of a trough keeping it away from the US altogether?
Quoting AllStar17:


Good morning.


Morning...
Quoting OSUWXGUY:
Good Morning All!


Morning...
Quoting AllStar17:


Which means it will impact a bunch of people from Georgia, northward.


my scenario isnt that good for this wave, if it continues to go west and miss forida great but,than heads noth and curves hitting myrtle beach THATS WHERE MY SECOND HOME IS LOCATED....
870. P451
871. IKE
Quoting hurricanehanna:

Hey Ike.
Any chances of a trough keeping it away from the US altogether?


May keep it off-shore. It may not though. Too soon to know.
Quoting WeatherStudent:


Yup, due west.


LOL
Troughs are the things that push these storms out to sea,but also can be the channel to pull it up the coast too,its all about timing.
Good morning storm, good morning all! I haven't been on all weekend. Did I miss anything? I thought Bill would have been gone by now..
Storm, will the conditions now lead the new invest north as well?
Quoting NEwxguy:


The problem was everyone there was swept into the sea,about 20 or so people,noone to jump in to save here,coast guard pulled the adult a 12 yr old and the 7 yr old out,but couldn't revive the 7 yr old.

Wow.
We had a few knuckleheads on our jeddie in VB as well during the height of our biggest waves, definately crashing and covering the entire jeddie. Our lifeguards just sat on their stands and blew the whistles. Finally the police showed up and gave everyone a ticket for trespassing on the jeddie.
876. P451
Quoting StormW:


Someone needs to drop an ice cube in the gulf.

877. IKE
Quoting SeVaSurfer:

Wow.
We had a few knuckleheads on our jeddie in VB as well during the height of our biggest waves, definately crashing and covering the entire jeddie. Our lifeguards just sat on their stands and blew the whistles. Finally the police showed up and gave everyone a ticket for trespassing on the jeddie.


Good.
Quoting IKE:


May keep it off-shore. It may not though. Too soon to know.
Bill actually protected the US to an extent by further breaking down the ridge. Otherwise, any storm would likely continue west into Fl, then into the Gulf.
Quoting P451:


Someone needs to drop an ice cube in the gulf.

ask bill gates to bring those ships over there..
Mornin'.

Looking forward to your update as always Storm.

P451? What's the significance of where the lightening is located? I noticed on your fourth graphic that you had a section circled. Is there some relevance between where the lightening is occurring and the storm possibly strengthening, or getting it's act together so to speak?
Quoting StormW:


Admin, please pardon the language...but things like this really PISS ME OFF!

Sometimes we forget how hard this is on the men and women of the Coast Guard, who have to pull the child from the water.
I am with you, StormW.
Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
Jeanne went up the Fla East coast offshore, then looped around and came back.


As did Betsy in 1965... She also did a loop de loop
Quoting P451:


Someone needs to drop an ice cube in the gulf.


I am more than willing to donate several bags of ice if we could get everyone on the Gulf Coast to do the same...lol....if only it were that easy
It would just melt
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


DUCK!! Here come the xtrapolaters. :P
From Melbournwe FL NWS:

THURS-SUN...MUCH UNCERTAINTY LIES IN THE LONG RANGE FORECAST AS
MODELS ARE HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME RESOLVING THE PLACEMENT AND
DEVELOPMENT OF THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT WILL BE APPROACHING CENTRAL
FLORIDA. THE GFS NOW WANTS TO DRAG THE WAVE INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
355 AM EDT MON AUG 24 2009



WHICH WOULD GREATLY INCREASE MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES FOR THURS
INTO FRI. HOWEVER THE MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF KEEPS THE WAVE JUST EAST
OF THE AREA AND DEVELOPS IT INTO A CLOSED LOW SYSTEM AS IT BUILDS
NORTH LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. WILL STICK WITH THE ECMWF FOR NOW
AND HOLD ONTO NEAR NORMAL POPS AROUND 40% FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED.
HOWEVER WILL HAVE TO WATCH HOW FUTURE MODEL RUNS HANDLE THIS SYSTEM
AS PLACEMENT WILL BE KEY TO HOW RAIN CHANCES WILL PLAY OUT.



Link
888. P451
Quoting KimberlyB:
Mornin'.

Looking forward to your update as always Storm.

P451? What's the significance of where the lightening is located? I noticed on your fourth graphic that you had a section circled. Is there some relevance between where the lightening is occurring and the storm possibly strengthening, or getting it's act together so to speak?


The circled area is the invest itself. I figured it might be tough to pick out on such a small image.

As to the significance of the lightning I would suggest it means the convection is very intense with the system. More energy more of a chance to develop.

Maybe someone with more experience can weigh in on that if needed.
Quoting Elena85Vet:


DUCK!! Here come the xtrapolaters. :P


then they need this graphic :)

Quoting KEHCharleston:

Sometimes we forget how hard this is on the men and women of the Coast Guard, who have to pull the child from the water.
I am with you, StormW.

Absolutely, they too have to live with what they see and do in their job. God bless all those that serve in the USCG.

A proud Coast Guard Spouse :)
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


then they need this graphic :)



The BAMD is interesting.
Quoting P451:


The circled area is the invest itself. I figured it might be tough to pick out on such a small image.

As to the significance of the lightning I would suggest it means the convection is very intense with the system. More energy more of a chance to develop.

Maybe someone with more experience can weigh in on that if needed.


Ah, ok. That makes sense. Thank you.
894. Relix
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


then they need this graphic :)



Hey that looks pretty safe for PR then =P
Looks like NC/SC/GA might be the chosen spot for 92L..way too early to know though; models aren't in complete agreement with anything at this point.
896. Prgal
New Blog.
Quoting KEHCharleston:

Sometimes we forget how hard this is on the men and women of the Coast Guard, who have to pull the child from the water.
I am with you, StormW.


They do an amazing job,I give a standing ovation for those people out there,it must have been heart wrenching to pull that girl out and be unable to save her.
NEW BLOG!
:)
Good morning!

I see the disturbance in the tropics might be stating to organize and that Hilda isn't alone.
Last week I mentioned that hubby and I visited a lighthouse on a promontory in Nova Scotia. It was maybe 200 feet across, rocks were huge and we were 80 or 90 feet above the sea. Right at the base of the lighthouse was a memorial plaque for a young couple that got washed away from that spot. We were there on a beautiful summer day - couldn't imagine a wave high enough to reach that point and sweep anyone away. It was a very sobering thing to think about. I mean we were way above the ocean, much too high to think a wave could reach us. The people on those rocks no doubt thought they were completely safe too - but ignoring the warnings to enjoy the thrill - just too sad for words for those injured and for the parents of that 7 year old. Will it stop people next time? I really doubt it. Maybe put a big monument on that point with a photo of the lost child would help.
Oh yay!
A new blog!
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:

guys remember that the first model run are not that accurate so it may go into the caribbean or be a fish system so people from northern leewards greater antilles tbe bahamas and the SE coast should keep an eye on 92L
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


then they need this graphic :)



Wonder what the BAMM model is thinking.
904. P451
Quoting hurricanehanna:

I am more than willing to donate several bags of ice if we could get everyone on the Gulf Coast to do the same...lol....if only it were that easy


Maybe this guy is for hire...