WunderBlog Archive » Category 6™

Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.

Big Wind in the Windy City

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:30 PM GMT on April 24, 2007

Tornadoes hit the Plains again last night, and several people in rural Nebraska were injured when a tornado ripped through farmland in the western part of the state. The Storm Prediction Center has put a large area of the Plains under their Moderate Risk region for severe weather today. Wunderphotographer Mike Theiss chased the tornado that caused severe damage in Tulia, Texas over the weekend, and will be out chasing storms in the Plains today. Mike will be chasing frequently over the coming month, so be sure to tune into his blog for the latest!

Big wind in the Windy City
What would happen if a violent, long-track EF4 or EF5 tornado ripped through a densely populated urban area like Chicago? That was the question posed by tornado researcher Josh Wurman of the Center for Severe Weather Research in Boulder and three co-authors in a paper published in the January 2007 issue of the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. Their astonishing answer: damage of $40 billion and 13,000-45,000 people killed--the deadliest natural disaster in American history.

A tornado death toll in the ten of thousands seems outlandish when one considers past history. After all, the deadliest tornado in U.S. history--the great Tri-state Tornado of March 18, 1925--killed 695 people in its deadly rampage across rural Missouri, Illinois, and Indiana. That was before the advent of Doppler radar and the National Weather Service's excellent tornado warning system. In fact, there has not been a tornado death toll over 100 since 1953, the year the NWS began issuing tornado warnings. Chicago has been hit by one violent tornado. On April 21, 1967 a 200-yard wide F4 tornado formed in Palos Hills in Cook County, and tore a 16-miles long trail of destruction through Oak Lawn and the south side of Chicago. Thirty-three people died, 500 more were injured, and damage was estimated at $50 million.

The paper by Wurman et al., "Low-level winds in tornadoes and the potential catastrophic tornado impacts in urban areas" opens with an analysis of the wind structure of two F5 tornadoes captured on mobile "Doppler on Wheels" radar systems--the May 3, 1999 Bridgecreek-Moore tornado, which hit the southern suburbs of Oklahoma City, and the Mulhall, Oklahoma tornado of the same day, which moved over sparsely populated rural regions. The Bridgecreek-Moore tornado had the highest winds ever measured in a tornado, 302 mph. Winds of EF4 to EF5 strength (greater than 170 mph) are capable of completely destroying a typical home, and occurred over a 350 meter (1150 foot) wide swath along this tornado's path. The Mulhall tornado had weaker winds topping out at 245-255 mph, but had EF4 to EF5 winds over a much wider swath--1600 meters (one mile).

The F4 to F5 winds of the Bridgecreek-Moore tornado killed 36 people. Given the population of the area hit, between 1% and 3% of the people exposed to these winds died. The authors thought that this number was unusually low, given the excellent warnings and high degree of tornado awareness in Oklahoma's population. They cited the death rate in the 1998 Spencer, South Dakota F4 tornado that destroyed 30 structures and caused six deaths, resulting in a death rate of 6% (assuming 3.3 people lived in each structure). There are no studies that relate the probability of death to the amount of damage a structure receives, and the authors estimated crudely that the death rate per totally destroyed structure is 10%. This number will go down sharply if there is a long warning time, as there was in the Oklahoma tornadoes. If one takes the Mulhall tornado's track and superimposes it on a densely populated region of Chicago (Figure 1), one sees that a much higher number of buildings are impacted due to the density of houses. Many of these are high-rise apartment buildings that would not be totally destroyed, and the authors assume a 1% death rate in these structures. Assuming a 1% death rate in the partially destroyed high-rise apartment buildings and a 10% death rate in the homes totally destroyed along the simulated tornado's path, one arrives at a figure of 13,000-45,000 killed in Chicago by a violent, long-track tornado. The math can applied to other cities, as well, resulting in deaths tolls as high as 14,000 in St. Louis, 22,000 in Dallas, 17,000 in Houston, 15,000 in Atlanta, and 8,000 in Oklahoma City.


Figure 1. Wind speed swaths for the 1999 F5 Mulhall, Oklahoma tornado if it were to traverse a densely populated area of Chicago. Units are in meters/sec (120 m/s = 269 mph, 102 m/s = 228 mph, and 76 m/s = 170 mph). Winds above 170 mph usually completely destroy an average house, with a crudely estimated fatality rate of 10%, according to Wurman et al.. Insets x, y, and z refer to satellite photo insets in Figure 2. Image credit: Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society.


Figure 2. Aerial photographs from Google Earth of densely populated area of Chicago (insets x, y, and z from Figure 1) These areas contain mainly single-family homes, with housing units densely packed on small lots. A mixture of three-story apartments and single-family homes is typical across the Chicago metropolitan area and many older cities such as New York City and Detroit. At lower right is a photo of Moore, OK, showing lower density housing like the 1999 Bridgecreek-Moore tornado passed through.

How realistic are these estimates? Could a violent tornado really eclipse the Galveston Hurricane (8,000 killed) as this nation's worst natural disaster? The authors admit that their method of estimating deaths is crude, and considered death rates from only two storms to arrive at their estimates. I took a look at the fatalities from some other F5 tornadoes since 1991, and the death rates are highly variable (3% for the 1000 buildings destroyed by the 1998 Birmingham, AL tornado; 66% for the 41 buildings destroyed by the 1997 Jarrell, Texas tornado; 0% for the 66 buildings destroyed in the 1996 Oakfield, Wisconsin tornado; and 5% for the 350 buildings destroyed in the 1991 Andover, Kansas tornado). Based on these numbers, a 5% death rate may be more typical than the 10% death rate assumed in the Wurman et al. study. Violent tornadoes have hit downtown areas in the past, but have not affected nearly the number of structures as considered in the Wurman et al. study. The authors emphasize that even if their death rate estimates are off by a factor ten, a violent tornado in Chicago could still kill 1,300-4,500 people. The authors don't give an expected frequency for such an event, but I speculate that a violent tornado capable of killing thousands will probably occur in a major U.S. city once every few hundred years--or perhaps as long as 1000 years, considering that there have not been any F5 tornadoes in the U.S. since 1999.


Figure 3. Tornadoes to affect the Chicago area, 1950-2005. Background image credit: Google Earth. Tornado paths: Dr. Perry Samson.

Jeff Masters

Tornado

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

3rd and good afternoon all. Very quite in here today.
one of the major factors that can affect tornado fatalities in urban/suburban areas is the availability of basements and storm shelters. For example due to soil shifting (at least that is the reason ive gotten by talking to people) problems in most of Texas, basements and shelters are very rare and when you end up with an F5 like in Jarrell there is a very small chance of survival if the foundation of the building you are in is scoured clean. In contrast, in Oklahoma, a large amount of homes have storm shelters, and as long as you have access and availability of shelter, you will generally be ok. Just some thoughts.
A strong tornado, or a series of strong tornadoes, in the Chicago area is about the only thing to worry about up here. (We live in the western suburbs.)

Prior to this, the worst natural disaster we've had was the heat wave of 1995, which killed 700 (a conservative estimate). The last tornado outbreak here was in the late 1960s, and the last major tornado was in the early 1990s.

I'm just hoping we stay prepared with regards to tornado safety, when the time to respond comes.
avlos...good point. Relatively few homes in southern coastal region have basements or storm shelters.
Thanks Dr. Masters
"damage of $40 billion and 13,000-45,000 people killed--the deadliest natural disaster in American history."

that seems an unreasonable estimate to me.....

but it just makes me appreciate the fact that I don't live in "tornado alley"......

hurricanes are certainly a concern, but at least you can see it coming for perhaps days.....

a tornado can literally drop out of the sky at a moments notice..... which literally is terror!
Huh ! Still 90 f here, and still Hot and very dry. @ 11 n 60 w
Where pottery? Near Trinidad?

The storm system in the nation's midsection is Worse than the models were predicting a few days ago. Already a HUGE swath of tornado watches has gone up.

Damp air interacting from the gulf has created an INTENSE Storm line across Texas - almost out of nowhere. Numerous tornadoes could occur quickly.

Dallas/Fort Worth, Oklahoma City are in for a rough day it appears.
Storm Chasers Predict Active Tornado Season for Parts of the US (highlights)
ARLINGTON, TX -- (MARKET WIRE) -- April 24, 2007 -- An active tornado season is in store for parts of the US, according to storm chasers at Texas-based Tempest Tours, Inc., a company known for successfully forecasting and intercepting dozens of tornadoes since 2001. "The latest analysis indicates a continuation of an active jet stream across the south central US," said storm chaser and Tempest Tours founder Martin Lisius. "We believe the southern branch of the jet will continue to send storm systems from the Southern Plains into the lower and middle Mississippi Valley region for the next several weeks. The systems look like ripples or valleys moving down a rope. As the air over this region continues to warm and moisten, each new system will have a greater chance of producing severe weather," he said.

Is there any link between this severe weather pattern and global warming? According to Tempest's senior chaser and climatologist William Reid, "Global warming is expected to result in stronger tropical weather systems, including hurricanes, as these cyclones thrive over warm seas," he said. "The lifeblood of severe weather systems and tornadic storms is water vapor and heat energy, and the most significant severe weather outbreaks on the Plains are associated with warm and humid air that has surged northward off of the Gulf (of Mexico) waters. Thus, it appears straightforward that global warming would favor a corresponding increase in severe weather and tornadoes on the Great Plains."

Isn't it remarkable how these storms are blowing up with very little precip to either side of them?
Good afternoon..

I haven't looked at this graphic in a few weeks and from what iam seeing its somewhat disturbing to look at how the MDR continues to warm.Hopefully things will cool of some in the coming months.Adrian

ffff
sequence

really cool tornado sequence
Good Afternoon...

Look at the seea surface temperature,not good if you look at the caribbean sea

map
sorry bout the pixelation
Hello everyone. Not to be an alarmist or anything, because I really don't know what I am looking at, but do I spy some circulation on that little blob by Jamaica just west of the D.R., and the blob just north of Panama.
Like I said I know that I really know very little about this. Just observing.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-avn.html
For those interested in looking at great severe weather pics like meso-cylones hail and tornados i highly recommend searching threw this site.

Extreme Instability

That's alot of warming in a month 23! All signs of weak winds and low surface pressures.
Yes indeed...And if it continues threw the coming weeks there will be alot of fuel just waiting to be taken advantage of.
As a closing word as I go silent till June 1st. The season is coming. No need to fan the flames of impending doom. Its April still. Learn to learn with each other. No need to one up. No need to remind us of the warming waters. We ALL have access to the data. Relax..there will be plenty of time for WOW..and Gee!... in the coming months. Help a elderly neighbor or someone who you know needs a hand with preperation. It'll make one feel good.
Patrap last time i checked this what a weather forum is for to discuss weather and its contents.As far as preparation i agree and as ive been saying for weeks now take advantage of these quite times and create a hurricane plan for you and your family.

My Hurricane Prepardness page
its "QUIET"... The fear factor weighs on some.
No one said not to discuss did they 23? You do it well.
New here. Anyone ever hear of this team of long term forcasters out of ncu. Interesting article.

http://www.insurancejournal.com/news/national/2007/04/23/78875.htm
The MDR is very important an its current warming caught my attention and basically just wanted to bring it up to others.SST'S play a significant role in tropical development.

Lets hope the longwave pattern is in our favor this season.

Well back to work, ill check back later -- but keep an eye on Texas today and that entire system, even if it has quieted down a little now. A low from the pacific moving up that front crossed the mountains of Mexico this AM and should emerge in Texas this afternoon/evening.

Pat this system could develop further east quickly too. Dont completely sign out!
Some actually like reading the facts Patrap! And some might not like the fact that you speak on thier behalf. Discussion on the tropics for the next month is going to get more prevalent because of all the changes that will take place. There is no doom and gloom in our conversation, just facts.

Dreamsender
Many records were broken during the 2... Many records were broken during the 2005 Atlantic hurricane season including the most hurricanes ever, the most category 5 hurricanes, and the most intense hurricane ever recorded in the Atlantic as measured by atmospheric pressure. This visualization shows all 27 named storms that formed in the 2005 Atlantic hurricane season and examines some of the conditions that made hurricane formation so favorable.

The animation begins by showing the regions of warm water that are favorable for storm development advancing northward through the peak of hurricane season and then receding as the waters cool. The thermal energy in these warm waters powers the hurricanes. Strong shearing winds in the troposphere can disrupt developing young storms, but measurements indicate that there was very little shearing wind activity in 2005 to impede storm formation.

Sea surface temperatures, clouds, storm tracks, and hurricane category labels are shown as the hurricane season progresses.

This visualization shows some of the actual data that NASA and NOAA satellites measured in 2005 -- data used to predict the paths and intensities of hurricanes. Satellite data play a vital role in helping us understand the land, ocean, and atmosphere systems that have such dramatic effects on our lives.

NOTE: This animation shows the named storms from the 2005 hurricane season. During a re-analysis of 2005, NOAA's Tropical Prediction Center/National Hurricane Center determined that a short-lived subtropcial storm developed near the Azores Islands in late September, increasing the 2005 tropical storm count from 27 to 28. This storm was not named and is not shown in this animation.

Credit:
NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center Scientific Visualization Studio
LOL..
Funny, lol!

The one upping and helping a neighbor I agree with!
hey hurricane23, just wondering if you could post a link to that MDR picture or a picture that shows the increase in SST in that area.

Thanks.
No Problem Stormxyz...

Reynolds SST'S Analysis

If your looking for tropical links visit my site and got threw the navigation bar.

Adrian's Weather
Uh-oh...

lol


...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE THIS AFTN/TONIGHT ACROSS
PARTS OF CNTRL INTO NORTHEAST TEXAS....

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MODERATE RISK
AREAS ACROSS A LARGE PART OF THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS...INCLUDING PARTS
OF CNTRL/ERN KS AND OK...TX...NW LA...WRN AR...AND SW MO....

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS A LARGE PART OF THE
CNTRL PLAINS INTO THE MIDDLE/LWR MISSISSIPPI VALLEY....

...SYNOPSIS...
DEEP CYCLONE TO THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES IS IN THE PROCESS OF
OCCLUDING. INITIAL IMPULSE EMBEDDED WITHIN SOUTHERN BRANCH CLOSED
LOW/TROUGH HAS ROTATED AROUND THE NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF BROADER
SCALE CIRCULATION...NOW CENTERED OVER SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO...WITH
ANOTHER IMPULSE BEGINNING TO DIG TO THE LEE OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES.


...SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS INTO LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY...
IN THE EXIT REGION OF 70+ KT 500 MB JET STREAK ASSOCIATED WITH
INITIAL IMPULSE...STORMS REMAIN CELLULAR ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH
CENTRAL/NORTHEAST KANSAS...NEAR WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST OF
CYCLONE...NEAR/NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR. EMBEDDED WITHIN
DEEP LAYER SOUTHERLY CLOUD BEARING LAYER FLOW...CELLS HAVE BEEN
QUICKLY LIFTING NORTH OF EAST-WEST ORIENTED FRONT...MINIMIZING
TORNADO POTENTIAL TO THIS POINT. HOWEVER...ACTIVITY ALSO APPEARS TO
HAVE BEEN SLOW TO ROOT IN MOIST MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WITH CAPE OF
1000-1500 J/KG. THIS INSTABILITY COULD INCREASE A BIT FURTHER LATE
THIS AFTERNOON...AND TENDENCY SHOULD BE FOR ACTIVITY TO BECOME
INCREASING SURFACE BASED. LOW-LEVEL FLOW HAS WEAKENED IN WARM
SECTOR ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL/EASTERN KANSAS INTO NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA...BUT LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS AND AMBIENT ENVIRONMENT STILL
APPEAR SUPPORTIVE OF TORNADOES...PARTICULARLY WHERE SURFACE WINDS
ARE BACKED NEAR WARM FRONT.

FARTHER SOUTH...WIND SHIFT...LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC COOLING
ASSOCIATED WITH LEAD IMPULSE HAVE PROVIDED FORCING/FOCUS FOR
EVOLVING SQUALL LINE NEAR/EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR ACROSS
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS IS OCCURRING IN
ADVANCE OF DRY LINE...IN ENVIRONMENT WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND CAPE OF 1000-2000 J/KG. LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AHEAD OF
ACTIVITY INTO THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY AND OZARKS HAVE NOT
STEEPENED STRONGLY...BUT IN PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING...POTENTIAL FOR
FURTHER INTENSIFICATION OF LINE IS LIKELY. LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS APPEAR LIKELY WITH SQUALL LINE...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED TORNADOES EMBEDDED WITHIN AND AHEAD OF LINE.

...CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH THE ARKLATEX/EXTREME SE OKLAHOMA...
LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS HAVE BECOME MAXIMIZED ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL
INTO NORTHEAST TEXAS...WHERE SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET IN WARM SECTOR
BOUNDARY LAYER...WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS NEAR 70F...REMAINS STRONG.
40+ KT 850 SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY STRENGTHEN FURTHER THROUGH EARLY
EVENING...AS UPSTREAM IMPULSE CONTINUES SOUTHEAST OF THE ROCKIES
INTO WEST TEXAS. WEAK IMPULSE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SUBTROPICAL
STREAM MAY AID LARGE SCALE FORCING...AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE
LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
AND...TORNADIC POTENTIAL...INCLUDING THE RISK FOR ISOLATED STRONG
TORNADOES...APPEARS LIKELY TO BECOME HIGH WITH DISCRETE SUPERCELLS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING AHEAD OF BROKEN SQUALL LINE
ADVANCING THROUGH CENTRAL/EASTERN TEXAS.

**FOR MORE SPECIFIC INFORMATION CONCERNING ONGOING OR MORE IMMINENT
SEVERE WEATHER THREATS...PLEASE REFER TO LATEST SPC MESOSCALE
DISCUSSIONS/WATCHES.



My thoughts and prayers are with the residents of the forecasted area for these storms.
lol


NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1050 AM CDT TUE APR 24 2007

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

A LARGE PART OF KANSAS

EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1050 AM UNTIL 700
PM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 65 MILES NORTHEAST OF HILL
CITY KANSAS TO 45 MILES SOUTH OF WICHITA KANSAS. FOR A COMPLETE
DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

DISCUSSION...SFC-BASED TSTMS EXPECTED TO FORM IN THE NEXT HOUR OR
TWO ALONG MERGING PACIFIC COLD FRONT/DRY LINE NOW IN CNTRL KS.
STORMS SHOULD QUICKLY BECOME SUPERCELLULAR...LIKELY EVOLVING INTO
SHORT NNE/SSW ORIENTED BANDS GIVEN CURRENT WIND PROFILES SHOWING
BACK-VEER PATTERNS IN THE VERTICAL. GIVEN QUALITY OF MOISTURE
INFLOW...INCREASING SFC HEATING AND STRENGTHENING DEEP SHEAR...AN
ATTENDANT THREAT WILL EXIST FOR TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 21035.

lol

TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 173
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1125 AM CDT TUE APR 24 2007

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

A LARGE PART OF OKLAHOMA
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS

EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1125 AM UNTIL 800
PM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 80 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES NORTHWEST OF PONCA
CITY OKLAHOMA TO 35 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ARDMORE OKLAHOMA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 172...

DISCUSSION...TSTMS/SUPERCELLS EXPECTED TO FORM/INTENSIFY ALONG
MERGING PACIFIC FRONT/DRY LINE. INITIAL ACTIVITY MAY BE SLIGHTLY
ELEVATED ABOVE FRONTAL SURFACE. BUT COMBINATION OF SFC
HEATING...STRENGTHENING DEEP SHEAR WITH CONTINUED ENE MOTION OF FAR
W TX UPR DISTURBANCE AND QUALITY MOISTURE INFLOW SUGGEST HIGH
LIKELIHOOD FOR VERY LARGE HAIL...A FEW TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WIND.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 22045.

lol

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1150 AM CDT TUE APR 24 2007

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

NORTHERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS

EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1150 AM UNTIL 800
PM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 3.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF
SHERMAN TEXAS TO 40 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF JUNCTION TEXAS. FOR
A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 172...WW 173...

DISCUSSION...TSTMS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ALONG MERGING PACIFIC
FRONT/DRY LINE IN WRN PART OF WW...WHERE DEEP SHEAR WILL INCREASE
WITH CONTINUED ENE MOTION OF FAR W TX UPR DISTURBANCE. BANDS OF
SEMI-DISCRETE...FAST- MOVING SUPERCELLS WILL POSE A SERIOUS THREAT
FOR VERY LARGE HAIL...HIGH WIND AND A FEW TORNADOES AS HEATING AND
RICH MOISTURE INFLOW CONTINUE ACROSS AREA.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 3.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 23040.

lol

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 175
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
150 PM CDT TUE APR 24 2007

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA

EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 150 PM UNTIL
900 PM CDT.

HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 60
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 105
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 10 MILES EAST
NORTHEAST OF GRAND ISLAND NEBRASKA TO 50 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF
BEATRICE NEBRASKA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 172...WW 173...WW 174...

DISCUSSION...ELEVATED TSTMS/POSSIBLE SUPERCELLS WITH HAIL EXPECTED
TO INCREASE IN STRENGTH AND POSSIBLY COVERAGE LATER
TODAY...POTENTIALLY SUPPORTING AN INCREASED THREAT FOR LARGER HAIL
AND POSSIBLY LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 50
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 20030.

lol


TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 176
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
240 PM CDT TUE APR 24 2007

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
NORTHEAST TEXAS

EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 240 PM UNTIL
1100 PM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 80 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES NORTHWEST OF
TEXARKANA ARKANSAS TO 5 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF CORSICANA TEXAS.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 172...WW 173...WW
174...WW 175...

DISCUSSION...SLIGHTLY ELEVATED TSTMS/POSSIBLE SUPERCELLS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND POSSIBLY BUILD DOWN INTO THE BOUNDARY LAYER
AS HEATING FURTHER DESTABILIZES REGION. ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY MOVE
INTO WW THIS EVENING AS ACTIVITY PROPAGATES E FROM CNTRL TX.
STRENGTHENING/ VEERING WIND PROFILES AND RICH BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE SUGGEST GOOD CHANCE FOR TORNADOES IN ADDITION TO HAIL/HIGH
WIND.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 23040.


lol

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
300 PM CDT TUE APR 24 2007

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

WESTERN ARKANSAS
SOUTHWEST MISSOURI
EASTERN OKLAHOMA

EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 300 PM UNTIL
1100 PM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 60 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES NORTH OF GROVE
OKLAHOMA TO 20 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF DE QUEEN ARKANSAS. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

lol

TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 178
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
325 PM CDT TUE APR 24 2007

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

EASTERN KANSAS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL MISSOURI

EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 325 PM UNTIL
1100 PM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 60 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF
SAINT JOSEPH MISSOURI TO 15 MILES SOUTH OF JOPLIN MISSOURI. FOR
A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 172...WW 173...WW
174...WW 175...WW 176...WW 177...

DISCUSSION...TSTMS/SUPERCELLS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN
COVERAGE/INTENSITY IN THE NEXT FEWS HOURS IN RESPONSE TO CONTINUED
SFC HEATING/CONVERGENCE. POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR LARGE
HAIL/ISOLATED TORNADOES GIVEN DEGREE OF SFC-BASED INSTABILITY AND
OBSERVED/FCST WIND PROFILES...ASSUMING STORMS BECOME ROOTED IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 21035.

lol


TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 179
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
400 PM CDT TUE APR 24 2007

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TEXAS

EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 400 PM UNTIL
1100 PM CDT.

...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...

DESTRUCTIVE TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL TO 3.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE
POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 115 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 55 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF
DEL RIO TEXAS TO 30 MILES NORTHWEST OF WACO TEXAS. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 172...WW 173...WW
174...WW 175...WW 176...WW 177...WW 178...

DISCUSSION...SUPERCELLS WITH AN ATTENDANT THREAT FOR VERY LARGE
HAIL...HIGH WIND AND POSSIBLY A STRONG TORNADO OR TWO...WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE CNTRL/S TX AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING. CONTINUED SFC
HEATING...RICH MOISTURE INFLOW AND ARRIVAL OF SW TX UPR DISTURBANCE
SHOULD CREATE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR A FEW LONG-LIVED
STORMS...ESPECIALLY ALONG WSW/ENE AXIS OVER CNTRL TX ALONG SRN
FRINGE OF STORMS THAT FORMED EARLIER IN THE DAY.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 3.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035.



we now have 8 watch boxs the # 8 watch box is a PDS
cool pic

cool pic from this website:Link
radar

numerous hail cells on the Kansas City Radar
TULSA RADAR

radar
This looks like it will be an impressive outbreak.
radar

KANSAS CITY RADAR LOOP. LOOKS LIKE A MAJOR OUTBREAKS ON THE WAY.
Everyone be sure to keep an eye on this map!

In Chicago it wouldn't be the people in structures that take the worst of it. Imagine a tornado going up the Stevenson Expressway during a rush hour. The Stevenson follows roughly the typical track of a tornado in the Chicago area. If this occurred there is simply nowhere to go fo those in vehicles. With the pelting rain and other visibility hindrances of a rush hour most people wouldn't know what hit them and even if they were listening on the radio would have no option. It appears at least one F4 did hit part of the Stevenson from the picture, but that might have been before it was constructed.

Another item is that Chicago buildings are mainly brick with flat roofs. Because they are so densely packed (frequently just enough room to walk between) they would tend to deprive the wind of a surface to "bite" into. This is not to say there wouldn't be a great deal of damage, but it would not be as great per square mile as that in a suburban sprawl with widely spaced stick built houses. I wonder if anyone has ever studied the boundary layer of tornadic winds with the ground?
no one is here i guess
lol

this is going to be a massive breakout!!
U AINT SEEN NUTTIN YET LATEST INFO INDICATES EXTREME WEATHER EVENT IS ABOUT TO SET UP EXPECT A SECOND WAVE OF STONGER VELOCITES TO SET UP WITH ABUNANT MOISTURE FLOW FROM WESTERN GOM LOOKS AS IF IT WILL GO BEYOND SEVERE TO ACHEIVE EXTREME THOSES HIGH SSTS IN WEST CAR AND GOM IS SUPPLING LOTS OF VAPOR COMBINE WITH GOOD SOUTHLY FLOW LOTS OF STORM CHASING TONIGHT.
Hey everybody, I heard a little earlier about WRMING SST'S well the GFS FOR THE PAST 2 RUNS HAS SHOWN DEVELOPMENT IN THE CARRIBEAN BUT WERE TO FAR OUT!
We got small funnels dropping down in west palm beach. pretty cool
hey 882mb or anyone else for that matter - when doing "runs" on the gfs, i forgot how to do it from last year. I got this link:
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

But just dont how to fill in the fields so that i get a full run all the way out, even to 2 weeks.

Any and all help would be apprecaited - im sure its quite simple once i realize how the easiest or most basic runs can be conducted. thanks again!
Stormxyz, go to-http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/12/model_l.shtml
and click on 384 hour!
NOVA Saved by the Sun is about to air on PBS EDT. All about solar power.
61. MZT
LOL - I hope you're not seriosly looking at 384 hour forecasts.

Anything more than 96 hours is a crapshoot.
It's still interesting.
While looking at a 384 hour forecast, specific systems can't be pin pointed because of the forecast being so long term...BUT...they can often give clues as to what the overall trend is likely to be.
Exactly.
Especially with run-to-run continuity.
I agree. If the runs are continuously showing some sort of development in the caribbean... it can be assumed that conditions there are becoming more favorable.
We'll see what happens.
68. MZT
I do remember the Canadian model, forecasting Alberto 7 days in advance last year.

But of course if a model continuously says a storm is coming, it will eventually be right! ;o)
Interesting, first time I ever saw a long term model forecast in April with a tropical storm in it (even though the storm would be in May)
Really?It isn't a TS,a TD.
Looks like a TS to me--wait I thought that 1006 was for an isobar, not the central pressure. Still not far from where storms cross over to TS.
Still I'll believe it when I see the whites round its eye....
goodnight
is there a chance for some tropical development in the near future
WOW the Frontline tonight on Global Warming politics is frightening. The suppression of climate change data and the underwriting by oil, coal and gas producers of the deniers is Staggering.
I do remember the Canadian model, forecasting Alberto 7 days in advance last year.

I remember that very well; I was telling everybody that Alberto would develop and it indeed did develop, although that was probably luck because the CMC was the only model showing any development until a few days before (when several models show development, it is far more likely; the CMC often develops storms that never happen).
Just read the lastest ENSO update and the possiblity remains that we will remain in neutral conditions.

There appears to be little chance of a return to El Nio conditions in 2007, with a continuation of neutral, or a switch to La Nia conditions, the more likely outcomes.
78. MZT
Seems kinda quiet here without STORMTOP. It's as if... people were just hanging around, talking about the weather, or something....
OMG MZT - don't wake him!
80. V26R
I feel a disturbance in the force
im not seeing the GFS development that 882 was talking about earlier, anyone want to enlighten me?
im not seeing anything go under 1008mb's

Storms kill at least 7 at border

LAREDO A tornado Tuesday night swiped a neighborhood southeast of Eagle Pass at about 7 p.m., killing several residents and injuring dozens more, National Weather Service and Maverick County sheriff's officials said.

Local reports said at least seven people were killed and more than 40 injured, but a supervisor at the Sheriff's Office could not say how many for sure. Emergency crews were coming from as far as San Antonio to help recover victims, he said.

Right now I know of seven dead, Maverick County Commissioner Rudy Herrida said. There are other people missing. We can't even go into these streets because the trees and light poles are down, and cars have been thrown into the streets.


From CNN:

Storm leaves at least 81 hurt in town near Mexico border
National Guard troops called out to help
Emergency shelters house at least 300 residents


Today could be bad by the look of things for areas East and North East of Texas

This front looks kind strong -

Station 42035 - GALVESTON 22NM East of Galveston, TX


Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.72 in Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.18 in ( Falling Rapidly )



NOTE THE GRAPH!!! -- Thats Scary!



There was a Tornado due west of Houston moving East:

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 245 AM CDT FOR LAVACA
COUNTY...

AT 212 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR HALLETTSVILLE...
MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
SUBLIME BY 225 AM CDT...


I hope it doesn't reoccur.
84. V26R
JFlorida, thats graph is showing just a really sharp cold front moving past that buoy, possibly with a Boomer near it too, or maybe just from the front giving you the gusty winds. If you notice now the pressure is rising too
so the cold front is past that buoys location
You probably get pressure drops and gusts of winds like that at your onland location when you get cold fronts moving through!
In Denton county (just north of Dallas), one locale saw 10 inches of rain yesterday. O.o This severe weather is providing a blessing in disguise in that its erasing our recent 2-to-3 year drought.
"Downtown" tornadoes:

July 2nd 1997, supercells in SE Lower Michigan generated a tornado outbreak that included an F2 that cut through NW Detroit.

This area, including Highland Park and Hamtramack, has similar population and structural density to the areas around Chicago shown in the Google Earth shots. This F2 caused $100 million in damage and about 100 injuries but, officially, no fatalities. However, just to the NE, along the same path, a wedding party on the shore of Lake St. Clair had taken shelter in a gazebo. Five people died and eight others injured when the gazebo was blown into the water.
87. MZT
For Charlotte, sometimes it's a bummer in the winter seeing the mountains capture all the snow.

But when these eastward moving systems are bringing tornadoes in the spring, the terrain is very helpful in breaking up their organization near the ground. We get tornadoes more from Nor'easters that are tracking inland, and sometimes from fast-forming afternoon thunderheads.

Posted By: JFLORIDA at 10:43 PM EDT on April 24, 2007.
WOW the Frontline tonight on Global Warming politics is frightening. The suppression of climate change data and the underwriting by oil, coal and gas producers of the deniers is Staggering.



Pirates! Let's boycot gas! ummm, darn, can't do that. Exxon Mobil seems to be front runner so I am going to stop using them. Oil change coming up too, :-(. That's too bad, Mobile 1 is good oil. Amazing how powerful money is! Who needs a president, the all mighty dollar controls this country!
TheCaneWhisperer...you're absolutely right about that. Pres is a puppet.
Morning everybody...

Again for those who have not seen or read the new ENSO update there forcasting Neutral to a very weak la nina this season.In my opinion we will see Neutral this hurricane season followed by a possible weak nina be late fall.

Here's part of there summary...

Equatorial Pacific sea-surface temperatures have cooled slightly during April, but remain close to average. The Trade Winds have been generally stronger than normal during recent months, while cloudiness in the western-central Pacific has been close to average for the past month. Overall, these ENSO indicators are neutral. The SOI on the other hand, has dropped below −10 during April thereby raising concerns about continued dry weather in eastern Australia. However, the SOI often shows increased monthly fluctuations at this time of year, so at this stage there is no longer-term significance in the SOI behaviour. There appears to be little chance of a return to El Nio conditions in 2007, with a continuation of neutral, or a switch to La Nia conditions, the more likely outcomes.

Complete ENSO out here
I am not very versed on the SOI 23, can you enlighten me a bit. I know what is means just not the effects of negative or positive SOI.
Hey TheCaneWhisperer!

Basically when the SOI go's up it would indicate the possibilty of nina conditions and when it go's down it indicates nino conditions maybe present.

Here is a paragraph which could be of good help for you.SEE HERE

I would also like to point out that it is not useful to moniter it on a weekly basis but more on a 30-60 average.

Here is a piece from the lastest BOM update referring to the lastest drop not meaning to much.

The SOI on the other hand, has dropped below −10 during April thereby raising concerns about continued dry weather in eastern Australia. However, the SOI often shows increased monthly fluctuations at this time of year, so at this stage there is no longer-term significance in the SOI behaviour. There appears to be little chance of a return to El Nio conditions in 2007, with a continuation of neutral, or a switch to La Nia conditions, the more likely outcomes.
Slumming throught the news wire~
We've seen the talk on lets replace Quikscat but in this article Hurricane center chief warns worse forecasts if satellite fails ~ in there this was said about Proenza..

At the same time, he strongly opposed a proposal to close any of the National Weather Services 122 offices around the nation or have them operate part time, saying weather certainly doesnt take a holiday.

Is there a new propsosal??
Thanks for the info 23, never really followed it that closely!
There was an F5 that hit the Chicagoland area back in 1990. The Plainfield tornado that destroyed parts of Plainfield, and Joliet. It was the strongest storm ever to hit the Northern Illinois area. This happens to be my hometown :)