WunderBlog Archive » Category 6™

Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.

Big money for hurricane research?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:08 PM GMT on October 27, 2006

The National Hurricane Research Initiative (NHRI)
There's big money proposed to fund new hurricane research. The National Science Board, in a report issued September 29, 2006, calls for an increase of $300 million per year in hurricane research funding. That's a whopping increase in funding, when one considers that the average annual spending on hurricane research has been only $20 million the past six years. So, what is the National Science Board, and this a reasonable proposal?

National Science Board
The 24 members of the National Science Board are appointed by the President of the United States, and make budget recommendations for the National Science Foundation (NSF). The NSF has an annual budget of about $5.6 billion (fiscal year 2006), and funds approximately 20 percent of all federally supported basic research conducted by America's colleges and universities. So, this is a very serious proposal by a group which has real power to influence the Federal budget.

Major recommendations of the report
The primary recommendation of the report is the formation of a National Hurricane Research Initiative (NHRI), which will "provide urgently needed hurricane science and engineering research and education". As justification for this effort, the report notes that that hurricane damage is increasing, with annual total losses (in constant 2006 dollars) averaging $1.3 billion from 1949-1989, $10.1 billion from 1990-1995, and $35.8 billion per year during the last 5 years. $168 billion in losses occurred in 2004 and 2005 alone. Over 50% of the population lives within 50 miles of the coast, and the value of infrastructure in the Gulf and Atlantic coast areas is over $3 trillion, with trillions more in investment likely in the next few decades as the U.S. population continues to expand. This incredible investment will be increasingly affected by hurricanes, and scientists "know relatively little about the most important aspects of hurricanes including their internal dynamics and interactions with the larger-scale atmosphere and ocean; methods for quantifying and conveying uncertainty and mitigating hurricane impacts; associated short and long term consequences on the natural and built environment; and the manner in which society responds before, during, and after landfall." The study notes that "billions of tax dollars have been provided for rescue, recovery, and rebuilding after hurricanes strike", but more money needs to be spent minimizing losses from hurricanes before they strike. In fact, had the NHRI been funded two years ago, much of the devastation wrought by Katrina could have been avoided. The program funds engineering studies to evaluate the structural integrity of the entire coastal infrastucture including levees, seawalls, drainage systems, bridges, water/sewage, power, and communications. The flaws in the New Orleans levees that led to over 80% of the city's flooding could have been found and fixed before Katrina hit had such a program been funded earlier.

The report has many excellent suggestions on how to make a coordinated research effort that will pay big dividends over the coming years by reducing our vulnerability to hurricanes. For example, the report seeks funding for research on improving evacuation planning, so that we can avoid a repeat of the debacle that occurred during the evacuation of Houston for Hurricane Rita. Over 100 people died in the evacuation effort. Research on improved disaster communications technologies is proposed, so that we avoid the situation that arose in Katrina where FEMA had no idea what was going on at the Convention Center.

My only gripe about the report is the inclusion of funding for research on human modification of hurricanes to reduce their intensity or alter their movement. I don't believe we should be messing with these great storms until we understand better how they work. In addition, given the sheer size and incredible energy that storms have, modification efforts will likely be an ineffectual waste of time and money. Finally, I don't think the legal system in this country will allow hurricane modification to occur without a lot of lawsuits being filed. I don't know too many hurricane scientists who are in favor of hurricane modification research, and suspect it is being funded for political reasons.

Is $300 million a reasonable request?
To do a thorough job of reducing our vulnerability to hurricanes, $300 million per year is a reasonable amount to spend. However, the U.S. faces a number of threats that also require large outlays of dollars, such as bioterrorism and earthquakes. The framers of the report realize that getting a $300 million per year project funded in a time of "increasingly small non-defense discretionary budgets" is difficult. To put this number in perspective, the annual amount spent in the U.S. on meteorology operations and supporting research is $3 billion. About $1 billion/year of this goes to run the National Weather Service, with weather satellites consuming another big chunk of the costs. But consider the amount being spent on defending the country against bioterrorism. The federal budget for bioterrorism emergency preparedness has ranged between $3 and $6 billion per year since 2002. The request for FY 2007 is $4.3 billion. That's over 200 times what we spend on hurricane research, and over ten times the $300 million being proposed. While others will disagree, I believe that the threat of catastrophe from hurricane strikes on the U.S. is much higher than that from bioterrorism. If we need to find funding for the NHRI, the bioterrorism budget can suffer a 7% cut. Another hurricane as strong as Hurricane Katrina is certain to hit a major populated area in the future, while a bioterrorism attack is not certain, and hopefully not even probable. There are wiser ways to spend our disaster preparedness dollars than what we are doing.

National Hurricane Research Initiative Act of 2006
Sen. Mel Martinez, R-Fla., introduced the National Hurricane Research Initiative Act of 2006, a bi-partisan bill that adopts the recommendations of the report. The proposed legislation puts NOAA and the National Science Foundation in charge of coordinating the research initiative. Not surprisingly, the bill is being co-sponsored by Florida's other Senator, Sen. Nelson (D-FL), and Louisiana's two Senators, Sen. Vitter (R-LA), and Sen. Landrieu (D-LA). Apparently, the Senators from the states hard hit by the hurricanes of 2004 and 2005 felt that $300 million per year wasn't enough, and ask for $435 million in funding per year through 2017.

Some historical perspective
In 1898, the United States fought the Spanish-American War. With the U.S. Navy heavily committed to operations in the Caribbean during the height of hurricane season, Willis L. Moore, Chief of the Weather Bureau, saw the need set up an improved hurricane warning system. Moore took a long view through the history of naval warfare and discovered that more armadas had been destroyed by weather than by the enemy. He placed his findings before President McKinley, and proposed that the U.S. spend money to establish a new hurricane warning service, despite the fact that budgets were tight in a time of war. McKinley responded to Moore: "I am more afraid of a West Indian hurricane than the entire Spanish Navy. Get this [hurricane warning] service inaugurated at the earliest possible moment!"

The Spanish are no longer our enemies, but the threat of hurricanes remains and will worsen if we do nothing. I hope today's politicians will emulate President McKinley, and take the long view of history. In the words of the report's conclusion:

Can we as a Nation continue to remain vulnerable to hurricanes that are an inevitable part of our future, that have demonstrated the capacity to inflict catastrophic damage to our economy, and that kill hundreds of our citizens? The hurricane warning for our Nation has been issued and we must act vigorously and without delay.

I urge you to write your Senators to support S, 4005, the National Hurricane Research Initiative Act of 2006. Those of you in Louisiana and Florida probably do not need to write your Senators--they are definitely on board on this one!

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Simple minded question here Dr. M, or others who know. Do they ask for that large of outlay, in hopes of getting a percentage of that, or do they really think they will get the whole she-bang?
wow that was alot of information to take in. code, I dont know the answer either.
code - in my limited experience with federal contracts, that's the way it always works. You inflate your needs and ask for it high. Oh, and did you know, you have a 10% tolerance ratio either way once that budget is awarded. If you stay within that tolerance, the next year, it is guaranteed you will get more or virtually guaranteed as long as your congressman has the power in D.C. I have personally witnessed budget managers hussling in the last month of the fiscal year to buy new copiers, computers, etc., even though the others are fine, in order to spend all that money so they can ask for more the following year.
use it or lose it theory
It has been a wierd season. No doubt we will keep an eye on this tropical wave. I think this system has potential for a last harrah. Have a nice day you all.
Very interesting info today, Doc, thanks. Hurricane research should be a larger slice of the research dollar pie, hope it happens.
Thanks Masters
Are you with the Law Offices of Dewy Cheatum and Howe?
That is a great question Code. I'm not sure I agree with all things said in your blog though Dr Masters. In reference to research for disaster communication technologies, has anyone heard of cell phones, walkie talkies? FEMA just needed to use them. That to me is like spending money researching why Johnny can't read instead of just teaching Johnny to read. Also, evacuation research findings are simple to predict the answers, make more lanes outgoing than incoming to handle the traffic and limit population density in high risk areas. Then there is the important question of who will pay for it and what city will restrict their growth and their potential tax revenues brought on by growth? Also, how many people will evacuate? Rather than widen roads or worry about traffic a better solution would be to make all structures have a "safe room". Plus, even if everyone evacuated you still have the issue of structure damage. The easy answer to that is if you live in an area prone to hurricanes your structure must be able to withstand the most severe winds. As it is now some areas do not have any wind codes and most have wind codes that only save the structure from minimal hurricane force winds. Take an example from Bermuda, why was it that they were able to recover so quickly from their latest hurricane? Because they've built everything to withstand high winds. OK, since I've saved countless millions by just using common sense, can we have some of the extra to enjoy a good Dr Masters blog party?
People, you have to check out this comic strip:
Todays Dilbert
Perhaps somebody smarter can post the actual picture in the blog.
Morning SW
The Blog has slipped into post season Chaos?..LOL..Im back to bring it all back ..to prime focus...
Dr. MAsters is up on His research. The Senate vote is most critical...
..I urge everyone to Contact their Senators and push for Passage of the Monies needed..as promised here in 1965..if we would have had the System built as promised.Our losses here would have been minimal..compared to the Flooding that occured due to the Levees ,The Feds built..failing under Cat -2 levels...
Tell these folks ..NO..Congress!...tell them Just to go Home..rebuild..and cross their Fingers...This is the way St.Bernard Looked..as it happened ..by the Vacarella family...These LeveLinkes were supposed to Hold...as advertised..but ..well..youll see..
Patrap, maybe you could help me with something. Do you know of any article or websites that adequately explain why the levees failed and all the causes?
Wait one..Ill get it..
A bit of that money might be spent studying how other countries respond to hurricane damage. Before Wilma even arrived here in Cozumel the electric companies in many other Mexican states had put trucks and crews of technicians on the road to arrive at the affected areas asap. A Mexican navy vessel arrived offshore here within a few days of the end of the storm and helicopters moved basic food supplies to distribution points on land and EVERY household received a package every few days. Although we sustained major damage - most of the power poles were downed - 90% of the population had power restored within two weeks. In view of this we were doubly appalled thinking about the people in New Orleans who we left without even drinking water...
LOL, cyclonebuster says he knows excactly how hurricanes work even when a trained Met knows that no one understands everything about hurricanes. Just amazing.

On a weather note...the depression in the E. Pac looks horrible. The LLC decoupled with the convection and is just spinning out there all alone. It better fire some convection if it wants to survive. Also, check out the tropical storm in the W. Pac. It looks like its getting its act together pretty quickly.
Here the answers you seek..Link
A westward-moving tropical wave is located about 250 miles east of
the Windward Islands. While the associated shower and thunderstorm
activity remains poorly organized...upper-level winds may become
more conducive for development during the next day or so. This
system could cause locally heavy rains and gusty winds over the
Windward Islands beginning this afternoon or tonight.
And 93L is born, check out the Navy site good people.
I Believe it was there last night rapid

HERE is the may they refer to in your post!
Getting sheared pretty good right now though!
93L was put up last night. It looked much better then too.
Serious work began on New Orleans' hurricane protection system in the 1960s after Hurricane Betsy flooded the city in 1965. But over the decades, funding slackened and many parts of the system were not finished by the time Katrina hit.
Thanx Patrap. This struck me as funny in a not so funny way. 40 years and it's still not finished?
Thats the facts they dont want known.Every congress since 1965...has slashed that budget..every time..Until this January..when they killed the bid in Committie.
Say it Again! Dr. Masters
Research into where storms will strike & how intense they will be is valuable - so people will know when to evacuate & which direction to go. The key word is GO. Better yet, Don't build there in the first place. Let's not continue to force everyone to subsidize the lifestyles of those who choose to live in areas that are sure to eventually face destruction by tropical cyclones. When the very land is gone, the structures will be gone with it. As for "safe rooms" - great for tornadoes, but in a flood or storm surge, they will just make the body recovery tougher.
wthrobserver,

Have you not noticed that when something happens there is always a rush to judgment and things get done very quickly, but then as time passes interest wains and people begin to believe its not a big deal. Its excactly what happen with the levees. Besty flooded the city and everyone was all for protecting it after that. Then, after 10 years go by and no hurricane hits, people arent so concerned anymore so the projects like levees and hurricane reasearch go out the window. It's unfortunetly human nature.
Yes .I was 5.4 yrs old when Betsy struck,...and now Im 46...and we have levees still..that Failed at CAt 2 Level...I was here..I was there at the 17th St. Canal..I saw it all...from a perspective that many havent.Thats why Im always here..REminding those that want to Bash the City..and the Good people here.It wasnt the winds,..it was the water that Killed here..the water...
I wonder if 93L will survive the weekend....
Thats an asinine comment..HIEXPRESS.what about SAn Franscisco..or LA..they Built cities on a Major FAult line..DUH!..Your emphassis..has no basis in reality.Get more informed..New Orleans was here before there wasa ever a country..LOL..and we will be here ,after..
and I didnt see HIEXPRESS here..after ..working the mci..
MCI..MAss Casualty Incident..
WHOA Paptrap - I apologize - I hit a nerve -
I was not referring to or even thinking about any persons or property outside of Florida - I was thinking about local issues here in E. Central Florida where they continue to build on virgin shoreline. I stood ready to help there, and was prepared to go, but I was not selected to staff the two apparatus we sent - As you know, freelancing at these incidents is counterproductive - my partners were there, as were hundreds if not thousands of my brothers & sisters. I have only been to New Orleans once, under better circuimstances, and I do appreciate the beauty of the place and the strength & character of the people there - again sorry for any misunderstanding. As for Californians - well, we all know they ain't right anyway... ;)
LOL..Hey..I didnt mean to crash the Comments...Come on out..Its allright!..Im only Home 1 day..from the Hospital..but im Fine..and ready to get up and atum...
OK Express..we alil touchy on those topics..Like we said and the Good DOc writes..we wouldnt have been in all this crap..if they would have kept up on the Levees...and given US what we asked for thru the years...
The Hospital Colonoscopy score..Patrap 4..Polyps 0..so I win that one at least..LOL!
I agree HMyles, we are a forgetful people. We are always ready to start running before we finish tying our shoes.

Patrap, you are right about Cali, I live here. We probably have more people in danger zones than N.O. I think one difference is though what is required to build here so building are earthquake safe. In your case the levee and resulting flooding disasters could have occurred by other events that were not caused by a hurricane. Katrina just highlighted the flaw that was known to be there but easily forgotten. I guess someone hadn't figured out how to line their pockets yet by fixing it.
Could get interesting if it does Nash! Very doubtfull though IMO
Lived in Cali while on Active Duty..El TOro,and Pendelton..liked it..cept for the Ground movement..
Well..I gotta go fill a prescription...Butt still sore..LOL.BBL...
Heres a link to staLinky current on the recovery here...
Yeah Pulse I agree, but it is probably a bad omen for that storm if there aren't even any models running on it and it is an Invest:-)
'sokay trap
You guys went through a lot & it is normal & human to have strong feelings on these issues. I love the Ocean. I go there whenever I can to swim, boat, fish, run & bike the shoreline, and just plain sit - I could live there if I choose,
but I practice what I preach, so I live 30 miles inland, on a hill 90'ASL. Yet my insurance goes up to pay the potential losses of those who live where I won't. Every time I go, "my" beach is a little narrower and the shadows a little wider due to the construction there, and the traffic when I leave is a little more dense.
Early run models For 93L:
Thanks 03! Hopefully it remains disorganized!
Yeah, it would really have to take a Southern track. Dont really see it doing much. Something to keep one eye on the weekend.



looks poorly organized, but who knows!

hope everybody has a good weekend, and hope your team wins..... unless you are a cowboys fan.... in that case, stand by to be flattened! :D
I mentioned on Wednesday that a LOW off the Carolinas was planned today. The area is forming into a Gale. If you had any plans of boat trips this weekend off the Georgia-NC coast you need to make new plans.
The Atlantic coast will be very dangerous for the next 48 hours. Should be nice in 72 hours.

24 hour surface forecast
Pressure gradients in 24 hours:

24 hour surface forecast
GRRRRRR...live life with a bang.....WSHHHHH....WSHHHHHHHHH.....come on boys and girls....it's going west......shear could lessen..it could form...get up off your lazy butts and let's do some serious research..some serious postin here.....this is better than have the blobs we've watched before....where's the...next update..it's a td for sure...come on guys.....heck...where our friend 23 when we need to know what's goin on on other sites....this is my one and only post..someone else is gonna have to do the cut and pastin..SPRINKLEBOTTOM
The 10 day outlook from the GFSx...Link
LMAO..the ric has returned..!
holy crap on a stick, RIC IS BACK, well, now just like we get over being VERY HAPPY when our little ones run away and then show up again, and THEN the mad sets in........ BOY are you in for it now, jo
prodigal son comes to mind jo?.......please kill the fatted calf and not me...or..the fatted rand could work....him and his crazy political blog.......and i thought his cookin was bad LOL
hey patrap..sorry for the butt surgery.....but i guess it beats the consequences
93L. The HPC SFC PROG shows this moving along the north coast of Cuba in 6 days. That would tell me that this thing will not get destroyed by sheer. It could also put it on an Ernesto type track.
A HIGH dominates the SE for some time then moves into the Atlantic. This would provide a steering mechanism to send the storm West, then NW, then North. Can we say tropical storm on west coast of FL on November 5?

Thats my theory.
oh..and pat..notice how polite everyone was to you..nothing like.....man...that must be like taking a hurricane up the rump...or...something like....did you trst the army corp of engineers to do the job..if you did....be careful if you have a storm surge....notice how i kept this post weather related
We are still missing Nash and Rand and the family is all back together! What a happy reunion.
Can we say High Shear!..LOL
Actually, the shear forecast is favorable the next 48 hours. After that, its not good.
then weather...we have 48 hours to wishcast..westcast..and look for an eye....and ask...will it hit me...come on people..i want some graphs...i want some rotational squiggly lines.....move your butts and bust your humps!!.SPRINKLEBOTTOM
Just wait for the 2:05 TWDAT ric and all will get started
Here is an image courtesy of MT. No circle swirls but 1009 inside of a 1012 area. Upper diffluence is supporting this wave. Not too far from 1008.

12Z surface analysis
go mt...it's your birthday....post dem pic!!!!!
,,,"Drove my Chevy to the Levee ..but the Levee was Broke...singing this will be the day that they died...this will be the day that they died"....
..."Helter Skelter.. in Summer swelter "..
.."cept here..the Music never Died..it was just muted a lil While"...Now..We need some West trending..and a lil..Mo Pics...
The Blogfather...starring Ric..as Don Tropical,...Randrewl as Tom..the advisor to the Don..PAtrap as Micheal tropical..the Marine son..and MAny more.....Stay tuned..LOL
Patrap, you could actually form a paragraph rather than post 80 times with 80 sentences. Just some friendly advice.
seems the 2:05 will be at 2:22. Little more complex than normal
Advice not heeded ..LOL
You could use a Blog entry..or a pic or too..LOL
Over/Under on a "special feature" I'll take the over thinking that were going to have one at the 2:05 disucssion.
an invest to nowhere...But you may need the practice...
look how power and big this storm is wow it takes up overe 1/2 of the U.S

lol
Heres a real Whopper Taz..the Blizzard of March 93....Link
I sold you toe, I mean told you so.
wow
that storm looks like a hurricane
93L quickscat pass from this morning.

TD 18E quickscat.
Heres some more on that one TAZ..Link
976mb low..a Noreaster to remember..Link
Skyepony..did ya see the DELTA launch?
That was a fun blizzard-cane, 2'+ in WNC~ well all good except the indoor arena at work collapsed.

The 2:05 is late.
thanks
No special feature but the pressure associated with the low is down from 1013 (8:00) to 1009 (2:00). Interesting.
Yeah I forgot about it & happened to be outside, looked like a low passing comet at one point, beautiful. Since I forgot, I got no pics.
but what about the powerfull storm now it looks big and take overe 1/2 of the E coast
I'll take multiple circulations for $50 on the 2umm31 update and counting.
Hate when I forget too...LOL
Its Friday..the 2pm will be out momenterily
East coast storm information.

.WARNINGS.
...GALE WARNING...
.ATLC 18 HOUR FORECAST COLD FRONT JUST INLAND THE SE UNITED
STATES COAST. N OF 29N W OF 77W S TO SW WINDS 25 TO 35 KT SEAS
BUILDING 8 TO 11 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST COLD FRONT 31N78W 29N81W. N OF 28N E OF FRONT
TO 70W SW WIND 25 TO 35 KT SEAS 9 TO 13 FT.
.36 HOUR FORECAST WINDS BELOW GALE FORCE.
000
AXNT20 KNHC 271823
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI OCT 27 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 38W SOUTH OF 12N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
SHOWERS/LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IN ITCZ-RELATED
PRECIPITATION FROM 6N TO 11N BETWEEN 33W AND 40W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 57W SOUTH OF 20N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG
THE WAVE NEAR 13N. A CLUSTER OF STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IS WITHIN A 30 TO 45 NM RADIUS OF 13N58W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS/LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FROM 8N TO 17N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W.

A CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 71W SOUTH OF THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC MOVING WEST 10 KT.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 13N TO 17N BETWEEN 69W AND 75W.

...THE ITCZ...
11N15W 8N26W 7N35W 6N40W 8N50W 10N54W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS/LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FROM 6N TO 8N BETWEEN THE COAST OF AFRICA AND 17W...FROM
3N TO 10N BETWEEN 22W AND 40W...AND FROM 5N TO 10N BETWEEN
43W AND 54W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA...THANKS TO
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WHICH RUNS FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO
THE CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE FLORIDA WEST COAST. MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL DRY AIR COVERS MOST OF THE AREA...EXCEPT FOR THE LINE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE CURRENT GULF WATERS COLD
FRONT. A STRONG DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NOW IS
MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI FROM WEST TO EAST. IT IS
DRAGGING A TROUGH TO ITS SOUTHWEST ACROSS TEXAS. THE SURFACE
COLD FRONT WHICH IS BEING SUPPORTED BY THIS DEEP LAYER TROUGH
GOES THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA INTO THE NORTHWESTERN GULF
WATERS TO THE LOWER TEXAS COAST NEAR 26N97W. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THROUGH 31N86W TO 28N90W TO 26N94W
IN THE WESTERN GULF WATERS TO 23N97W JUST OFF THE MEXICO COAST.
THE FRONT IN THE NORTHWESTERN GULF WATERS IS THE FRONT WHICH
WE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE OPEN GULF OF MEXICO WATERS
DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS OR SO.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA NEAR 17N81W. A COLD FRONT GOES
FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THROUGH 22N60W TO 20N70W. A SURFACE
TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 20N70W TO THE NORTHERN COASTAL AREAS OF
JAMAICA TO 19N80W...TO THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...AND INTO A PART OF THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 23N88W.
THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE CIRCULATION CENTER GOES FROM 14N
TO 20N BETWEEN 78W AND 84W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS
THE AREA SOUTH OF 14N WEST OF 72W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF
THE AREA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 TO 60 NM
ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT/TROUGH BOUNDARY.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS IMMEDIATELY TO THE EAST OF A DEEP
LAYER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NOW MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN
MISSOURI. THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS RIDGE REACHES 70W
NORTH OF 28N. DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC FLOW IS AROUND A WESTERN-TO-
CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH...THROUGH 32N54W TO 27N58W TO
22N66W. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN COLD
FRONT WHICH PASSES THROUGH 32N43W TO 27N50W TO 22N60W TO 20N70W.
A SURFACE RIDGE GOES FROM 22N49W TO 25N37W BEYOND A 1025 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 31N28W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED
CLOUDS AND ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 TO 120 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THROUGH 32N42W 27N51W 22N60W 19N67W.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 39N23W 29N30W TO 22N34W.
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR
15N36W JUST NORTH OF THE 38W TROPICAL WAVE.

$$
MT
See!...LOL
Nothing of note there...its like a litany of optimism
100
October wanes into an Early November..climatology..
103. MTJax
actually call it "lets keep the gas prices in check so the oil company execs dont get an extra Christmas bonus without cause". If it becomes undeniable then the notices will go out.
ITS over..done, das kaput..fini...Sudden death...post season analzing time...FaT Lady Wallowing out a U2 tune..kinda over...
Hey guys. Just checked the 12z model runs which do nothing with 93L.
the runs squash it...and we thinking about Opening 12 new refinerys in Florida..and Making our corridor into the New Disneyland!...
Lets Open Flas west & East coast up to New Gas & Oil tract leases..within site of Miami..and Boca...
Couple of Big rigs right offa Tampa Bay too...LOL...
Wait till the REAL Big One Smashes the LA/Texas industry..Katrina wasnt the "HIT"..it was a Big Hit.,but the refineries werent affected...
good afternoon all

93L flexing a little muscle now. Ryang, if you are lurking down there in Barbados get your rain coat AND umbrella out. Big time rain on the way shortly
re: "rapidintensify at 6:46 PM GMT on October 27, 2006.

Patrap, is this your first experience posting on a blog? You've got a lot to learn."

seeing as how as pat is one of the best around, i'd say its more like YOU have a lot more to learn than he does jo +-
wo... 93L is really flaring now
play nic
Live VideoLink Feed ..Port terminal..NOLA..
From the Navy

20061027.1845.goes12.x.vis1km_high.93LINVEST 25kts-1009mb-13.7N-58.9W
Just under the flare up of convection.
who knows, 93 almost looks organized today...could do something...what it will not do, however, is effect the US as a tropical system. the jet stream will take care of that.
My Exit..south of me 1 mile..notice the way the camera is pointedLink
rapid - it's against my nature to argue, but you obviously haven't kept with the blogs very much this year if you don't know Patrap's history. He is a great poster, gives great links and serves well as an educator regarding hurricanes and their effects. It doesn't hurt anyone to pay attention to a posting from someone else, but if you don't like it, you can simply ignore it or hit that little "-" button on the side. You don't have to try to redicule someone or tell someone else to go away to make yourself important here. You don't have to argue, but if you do argue, it might be a good idea to back up your arguments with facts, figures and possibly some good pictures! I am the first to admit I know nothing about hurricanes short of what I have learned here or any weather for that matter, but I have learned it is the combination of the information I get from everyone here that benefits me the most. I am also very guilty of posting "off topic" because if I posted "on-topic" I would exhibit my lack of knowledge. But, I, for one appreciate Patrap and Hobo's posts much more than any post that is hateful or belittling to someone. So, there, say what you want to about me or to me...it doesn't really matter, but I felt I had to let those people know I appreciate them after someone told them they were not wanted - they definitely are!
rapid.........let's get the big picture here....explain what you know about tropical systems..it won't take long..which is ok...now...if you shut up for a minute..and you listen to pat.....yeah...it will take 5 to 6 posts...(life aint no half hour sit-com)..but...guess what..you'll learn something....you pipe off at hobe..and we'll have to hurt you
The cmc run..Link
New Invest from Google..Link
Nash28....I would like to ammend my prior ammendment with regard to my earlier predictions....no rain....
126. melly
rapid has the has the typical "Silverback Syndrome " the I often refer to .
Who is messing with Hobe?
It Dont bother me at all,..thanx Guys..The Vicodin dulls the neurons..but my friends are seen easily.
Whats the lil Mexican TD doing..?
Patrap is alway ready to answer polite questions ---and his answers and insights make sense to newbies like me!
hold on there....now i feel dirty..i stood up for a marine...LOL
The invest page.Link
sorry pat..i couldn't resist..and ifigure after the surgery..i can probably outrun you right now
but ric-- did you say huraaaah?
..We never forget ric,we have that anchor ..for a reason...LOL...beer thirty!
..Mama Cass could outrun me right now...
checkin on ya pat...carry on...lol
Mama Cass is dead Pat....oh ...I get it.
..I just give rapid..a snickers..Here..its nutty,pack with peanuts...nougat,choclate..Put it in yer mouth..enjoy that...Link
any see my link?
lol...well pat....when you're better..i'll make sure i keep out of firing range from you....carry on mister...
98W is up
..now..if yall meet me on my blog..we can all laugh it up..I got a special..YouTube..bbL.
I can't find Hobe - anyone hear from her?
who has the computer model for 93l?
MODELS

Seemed to have backed off the intensity a bit and more scattered than earlier, no news there.
last night I called for 93L to pass Barbados near 14 N and that is how it seems to be playing out. The obs from that island will be interesting later tonight
hi all 93l is froming better will it go out to sea ?
As I understand it, back in the 1960s the U.S. was working on cloud-seeding of hurricanes at sea with the goal of weakening them, and a plane left Puerto Rico bound for Betsy just before it made its amazing loop towards Florida. The commentary was that Betsy made researchers and the Federal Government realize that had they actually seeded the storm, people would have been tempted to blame the storm's odd and ultimately devastating path on cloud-seeding, and lawsuits would have resulted.

I think Dr. Masters is right to suggest we leave alone the storm-modification attempts, at least until we have much more understanding of these massive things.
hi all 93l is forming better will it go out to sea ?
There is some nasty weather off Panama city now and a tornado was spotted on the ground near there. A strong cluster appears to be about to move onshore.

The rest of Florida will get this tonight.
Hard to say Bil. It is going west now and none of the major models develop it at all. There is a link above with the early run models.
Barbados obs

wind WNW but not impressive, pressure 1009. Look for winds to pick up when the heavy convection comes ashore
Link
155. 882MB
i knew i had a feeling 93l was gonna get its act together around the islands have to watch the observations tonight byeeeeeee
St Lucia also with winds out of the W.
definitely a surface low there but hard to tell if it is closed or not
Link
Martinique to the N of Barbados with NE winds and pressure of 1009 and falling
Looks like a closed low is there or very close
Link
anyone with a view or comment on those 3 obs ??
good afternoon all, everybody still looking east? kman, I think ryang said he was going to Miami today. Maybe to stay out of the rain????????
pottery

yes I remember him saying that last night. The Navy site has 93L at 25 knots and with the wind directions and pressures I posted the system is certainly capable of being classified a TD if the organisation looked a little better.
I suspect the NHC will go in tiny steps on this one. Look for the 5:30 outlook to say something like " this system has become a little better organised this afternoon etc " LOL
Hi guys the winds tommorow for my hometown is supposed to get up to 60 MPH!!!! :)
storm

where is home ?
where are you, stormchaser????
Navy says 14.1 N 58.5W
That would put the center just on the Northern edge of the heaviest convection. Some Northerly shear perhaps holding this back for now ??
Almost looks like the area just to the south and east of the navy mark is trying to organize moreso than where they have it.
Hello!
Pulse

I was just looking at the vis loop and I see what you mean. It may be another of those " multiple swirl" scenarios again. The area to the SE may be in the mid levels only because the surface obs I posted definitley place a LLC near 14N

Link
This doesn't look like it will be a TS much longer...
5:30 outlook

Different language as I expected
Link
Wow! The invest actually has a fighting chance!
Baby Steps!
172. ryang
hi everyone.IT is pouring in barbados.Winds are WNW at 6mph.
You are on the outer fringes of that invest. It looks like things will get progressively worse for you...
: (
1900hurricane

yes it does. The obs from the islands as well as the sat appearance bear that out. If it organises a bit more and takes on a less ragged appearance we could see a TD classification as early as 11 am tomorrow IMO
175. ryang
Also some flooding
176. MTJax
Sheer for 24 hours, sheer reduction for 48 hours, build to TD, TS, then off north of Cuba and west FL Nov 6. Same as I guesscasted earlier today.
The TWDAT should reflect the changes by Sunday with a Special interest area. I think this one might have to tie us over till next season but it could be an interesting storm. I want to see the models start picking this up solid before I will totally buy into the possible TS. I dont expect a massive hurricane but i do expect a TS.
177. ryang
winds are not strong
hi ryang

I told you so last night. the center of 93L now 80 miles N of you
179. ryang
lol
ryang

what happened to the Miami trip ?
182. ryang
kman but you see that heavy convection just east of us
183. MTJax
also I look for the words "TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS AREA" about the same time. Sunday.
184. ryang
kman had to cancel
Lets wait to see if we can get a good QuikScat on this tonite. The one this morning still showed a open wave. It really only has about 24 to 48 hours of low wind shear. After that its done. So maybe a TD or weak TS, if it can get itself together? But, thats about it.
pin hole eye?
187. ryang
lighting and thunder heavy now
ryang

well you get to enjoy the rain lol
HI yall Hi ryang!!!!
190. ryang
weatherguy03 is right
this 93L has no ch at all to make it to the gulf the wind shar is way to high like 65kt to 100kt of wind shar you are all safy from 93L
193. ryang
hi chaser
194. HCW
Latest model runs on 93L . Have a good weekened :)

Link
196. ryang
taz shear so high
197. ryang
lol
199. ryang
lol
Pulse
access forbidden ! LOL
202. ryang
will 93L survive
I got in there no problem...
that works
I would really like to see a QS pass.
Anyone know when the next pass is ?
205. ryang
Outside getting worse by the second
Usually fully updated around 9:30 or so Kman maybe a little later.
Invest page..Link
ryang

I ahve always been the one to say that systems just don't get it together in the E Caribbean but of the 6 that did in the last 28 yrs three got TD status in the month of Oct. !

Thats about all I can tell you

Early

Late
210. ryang
fORK LIGHTING

Intensity
careful there ryang !
stay off the comp.
Highest cloud tops still on the way ryang.
bb in a while
Looks like we could have a big one in the W. Pac.
Season isn't over yet!

Big storms during November!
218. ryang
ok i am going off
Hello? I guess there is no one here.

HELLO!!!(word echeos)
ABNT20 KNHC 272102
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT FRI OCT 27 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE...ACCOMPANIED BY A SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM...IS LOCATED ABOUT 80 MILES NORTH OF BARBADOS AND
ALSO ABOUT 110 MILES EAST OF MARTINIQUE IN THE CENTRAL LESSER
ANTILLES. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED AND BECOME A
LITTLE MORE CONCENTRATED NEAR THE CENTER...AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
ARE FORECAST TO BECOME SOMEWHAT MORE FAVORABLE FOR SOME ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO
. THIS SYSTEM COULD PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS AS IT MOVES ACROSS MUCH OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES AND ADJACENT WATERS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART/BLAKE
kman here's your Quickscat on 93L~it's a little over 4 hrs old, won't see another till around 9am gmt tomarrow.
nice cloudsat pass on Cimaron, well except he's 20kts & 1004mbs at the time. He's 65 kts & 976mb now. Was only a TD less then 24hrs ago.