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Big money for hurricane research for 2009?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 9:50 PM GMT on March 11, 2008

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the parent organization of the National Weather Service (NWS) and National Hurricane Center (NHC), has just released the President's proposed Fiscal year 2009 (FY 2009) budget. The new $4.1 billion budget is 5.2% larger than the budget enacted for this year, and proposes major new funding for hurricane-related research and operations. If approved by Congress and sustained for the next ten years, the new hurricane research funding offers some real hope that we will finally make headway in improving hurricane intensity forecasts.

$5.3 million in new funding for improving hurricane intensity and track forecasts
The big news in this year's proposed budget is the increased funding for improving hurricane intensity (and track) forecasts. Forecasts of hurricane tracks improved by about 50% in the past 20 years, but intensity forecasts improved very little during that period. In fact, the intensity forecasts issued by NHC in 2007 were poorer than average, thanks to twice as many rapid intensification episodes as usual (recall Felix, Humberto, and Lorenzo). To have any hope of solving the hurricane intensification problem, a major investment in hurricane research is required. In May 2007, the NOAA Executive Council (NEC) established the NOAA Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project (HFIP), a 10-year NOAA effort to accelerate improvements in one to five day forecasts for hurricane track, intensity, storm surge and to reduce forecast uncertainty, with an emphasis on rapid intensity change. The proposed FY 2009 budget allocates $1.04 million to fund this effort, plus another $3.2 million for improving hurricane models such as the new HWRF model (which debuted operationally in 2008). An additional $1 million is proposed for the Numerical Prediction Developmental Testbed Center (DTC), to transfer improvements in hurricane forecast models done in a research setting into operational use by the NHC as quickly as possible.

This proposed $5.3 million in new funding for hurricane research would allow us to increase the resolution of today's current computer hurricane forecast models--currently no better than 9 km--down to 1 km, a scale that can resolve the fine-scale processes that are critical to hurricane intensification. This sort of improvement gives us real hope of being able to solve the hurricane intensity forecast problem. The cost of such an effort could be made up in savings from the reduced evacuation costs from just one major hurricane. For example, the evacuation effort for Hurricane Rita cost over 100 lives and $2 billion. Quoting from the proposed FY 2009 budget document (p. 386):

A case study of Hurricane Rita demonstrates the economic benefits derived from improved forecasting. Typically, a household decision to evacuate is based on the issuance of a hurricane warning and the anticipated storm strength. On early morning of September 22, 2005, a hurricane warning was issued from Port Mansfield, Texas to Cameron, Louisiana. At that time, Hurricane Rita was a Category 4 storm having just been downgraded from a Category 5. Under this scenario, the estimated economic impact of the evacuation was $2.344 billion. Without the initiative, NWS expects a reduction of forecast track and wind speed errors by 10% resulting in 159,000 people remaining home and saving the economy $68.9 million dollars. With the initiative however, NWS could improve forecast track and wind speed errors by 50% and 30% respectively, resulting in 4 million remaining home and saving the economy $1.99 billion dollars. This includes 100 that would have been saved during the evacuation of Houston."

References:
1. Cost of Hurricane Evacuation by Kevin Smith, University of Eastern Carolina, 1999; Opportunity Costs of Hurricane Evacuation by John Whitehead, University of Eastern Carolina, 1999; and Structure of a Hurricane Evacuation by Mike Lindell, Texas A&M University, 2005.

2. Based on 2002 Current Population Estimate and 2002 County Business Patterns from the Bureau of the Census. Probability of Evacuation and average cost from Cost of Hurricane Evacuation by Kevin Smith, University of Eastern Carolina, 1999. The average household will spend $149 during an evacuation and the average business will lose $20,599 in 2006 dollars.


Figure 1. Hurricane Rita approaches the Texas/Louisiana coast on September 23, 2005. Image credit: NASA.

New funding for the Hurricane Hunters
The new budget proposes $4 million in new money for NOAA's weather research aircraft, including the two NOAA P-3 Orion hurricane hunter aircraft. Flight hours would increase by about a factor of two, from 1365 to 2845, and a third NOAA P-3 aircraft would be added for hurricane hunting. The new P-3 is expected to be operational for the coming 2008 hurricane season.

Not all of the money for the NOAA weather research aircraft would go for hurricane-related operations; there would be increased flight hours for winter storms surveillance (125 hours), airborne snow surveys to improve water resource forecasts and improve snow melt flood forecasts (330 hours), and coastal mapping to improve and maintain nautical charts and to improve tsunami inundation modeling (330 hours).

$3 million for Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS)
The new budget proposes $3 million to fund the use of remote controlled aircraft--Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS)--for weather research. Some of this money would go to fund hurricane research. The UAS platforms would also be used for climate change work and studies of Pacific storms that impact the U.S. West Coast. These UAS platforms can go where the Hurricane Hunters cannot--at low altitude in hurricanes--and provide a crucial set of data that can help with forecasts of rapid hurricane intensification.

$3 million for buoys
Another major increase in hurricane-related funding is an additional $3 million to operate the network of 15 open ocean "Hurricane Supplemental data buoys" that provide important measurements of wind speeds, pressure, and wave heights. These buoys had only $1.4 million in funding last year. Real time data from these stations will assist the National Hurricane Center to more accurately determine hurricane formation or dissipation; the extent of tropical hurricane wind circulation; the location and center of hurricanes; direction, height, and distribution of ocean waves generated by hurricanes; the maximum hurricane intensity; and the quality of measurements and estimates obtained from remote-sensing reconnaissance aircraft and satellites. Although this is not as big a deal as the proposed hurricane intensity research funding, it is still a great boost for hurricane forecasters.

Is this too much money for hurricane research and operations?
The President's proposed budget will be modified by both the House and Senate before it becomes law in October. It is possible that some or all of the increased hurricane-related funding could be stripped from the budget. However, it is more likely that additional funding would be added, since Congress has always passed a NOAA budget larger than asked for by President Bush. According to the National Science Board, government funding for hurricane research averaged $20 million between 2001 and 2006, so the proposed addition of another $10 million or so in the FY 2009 budget would represent a huge boost. Is this too much money to spend? Well, considering that the National Science Board advocated creation of a National Hurricane Research Initiative funded at $300 million per year, an extra $10 million per year for hurricane research is not very much.

To do a thorough job of reducing our vulnerability to hurricanes, $300 million per year is a reasonable amount to spend. However, the U.S. faces a number of threats that also require large outlays of dollars, such as bioterrorism, a flu pandemic, and earthquakes. Getting a $300 million per year project funded in a time of "increasingly small non-defense discretionary budgets" is difficult. To put this number in perspective, the annual amount spent in the U.S. on meteorology operations and supporting research is $3 billion. About $900 million per year of this goes to run the National Weather Service. The federal budget request for FY 2009 for flu pandemic emergency preparedness is $820 million--about the same amount of money that is spent for the entire National Weather Service! What's really startling is the amount of money spent on bioterrorism emergency preparedness--between $3 and $6 billion per year since 2002, with $4.3 billion requested for 2009. That's over 200 times what we spend on hurricane research, and over ten times the $300 million for hurricane research proposed by the National Science Board. A catastrophic bioterrorism attack on the U.S. may never occur, but catastrophic hurricane strikes are guaranteed. These strikes will occur with increasing frequency in the future, as more people move to the coast and the population increases. A major increase in hurricane research funding will reduce the costs of these future disasters, and is very much in order.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Let's all hope that congress passes this budget...

They've passed other less useful, more costly, spending measures in the past. Right now certainly isn't a time to reign in hurricane research in the name of defecits.
Show me da money...
Thats some excellent news for sure.Sanity returns to Funding NOAA, hopefully as the Bill moves thru and becomes Law.
That's good information Dr. Masters! The buoys in the Atlantic should be improved upon...
NHC forecast verification for 2007 is now complete; read full report (pdf) Link


$3 million for Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS)

$3 million for buoys



The existing buoy network is in need of repair too.

Upper level UAS with radar and real time video would be good investment I would think. It seems by combining technologies you could have a fleet of these things aloft in the tropical Atlantic for very little cost.

I would also think as UAV's are cycled out of combat duty we will see a lot more use in weather recon.
Posted by: JeffMasters, 5:47 PM EDT on March 11, 2008
A catastrophic bioterrorism attack on the U.S. may never occur,

I give up

all it takes is one
latitude25

I give up

all it takes is one



The "Bioterror" scam is mostly a fema and law enforcement boondoggle. We saw how well it all worked in Katrina.

What EXACTLY has be accomplished by this monstrous expenditure?


More paper work and directives that should have already been enacted. http://www.gao.gov/new.items/d04360r.pdf
10. Inyo
Latitude25, no one is saying that we shouldn't fund bioterrorism emergency preparedness, only that it probably isn't a higher priority than hurricane preparedness, but it is funded much more heavily. If you calculated ALL the terrorist money, it would be many, many times the money spent on natural disasters, especially if you include the Iraq war (i dont know if that counts since it made the situation so much worse, anyway)
The problem with bioterror is we don't know what we'll be attacked with. Hurricaines are a known problem. You solve the problems you KNOW will happen first, and put the hypothetical second.
So, what ever happened to the Ren and Stimpy Show?

How's the weather?

It's dark here.
Lat, Ren and Stimpy were the best, eh? ooops, off topic...uhm...it's overcast in NE Fla.

And I hope they can stretch that 3mil on buoys a long way.
The new $4.1 billion budget is 5.2% larger than the budget enacted for this year

and how does this compare to the inflation rate?

Looks like almost a break even....
Dan,

Good point, actually...
Thank you, Thank you, Thank you...All funding is appreciated...Thank you, I am delighted...I hope we get it all and more...:)
Me thinks the good Doctor speak with tongue in cheek. How many new tanker planes would NOAA budget buy?
Evening everybody.

Good to see the NWS getting some more much needed funding for research. Perhaps we will see some REAL improvements in forecast ability all round, including for storms like the one we had in FL last week.
The funding increases and earmarks sound great and all, but what about model input data?

Sure more buoys and more UAVs will help with the input data for the models, but the coverage by a few UAVs and the few pin points of buoy data is still artificially limited. QuikScat WILL fail sometime soon, it is already more than 5 years beyond it's design life. It was launched in 1999 with a 3 year expected life!

There is no current operative plan for measuring a storm's full wind field, not from space, atmosphere, nor ocean once QuikScat drops off. There are plenty of ideas, good ones, but no funding and no action.

Once QuikScat fails, we will be back to assumptions as inputs for modeling. No real details about the pressure gradient in different directions, no data about the asymmetry of a storm unless the flight tracks are recent and cover enough of the storm, and no more than pin point radiosondes over land about the deep steering currents at 500mb and 250 mb. Being vocal about this is what got Max Mayfield in trouble and I am certain he isn't impressed now either.

Garbage in = garbage out in the modeling world, regardless of resolution. It is not possible to have enough good in-situ observations. Obtaining as many as possible should be paramount.
2007 Hurricane Season Starts Early, Ends Late

Link

ScienceDaily (Feb. 15, 2008) — The Atlantic Hurricane Season began early in 2007, and by mid-December it was still going.
20. atmoaggie 9:35 PM EDT on March 11, 2008
The funding increases and earmarks sound great and all, but what about model input data?

QuikScat WILL fail sometime soon, it is already more than 5 years beyond it's design life.


Boy, I sure hope something in that research budget is going for the replacement for QuikScat. I think the EU has their own scatterometer (is that the correct word?) but imagine having to ask the EU for all your data.

Hmm . . .
Hurricane satellite could fail anytime; plans to launch replacement delayed until 2016 Link
Lat...Dr. Masters just means that over time, natural disasters cost more money and lives than terrorists attacks, and aren't funded accordingly.

Cost of 9/11:

Economic loss to New York in month following the attacks: $105 billion

Estimated cost of cleanup: $600 million

Total FEMA money spent on the emergency: $970 million

Estimated amount of money needed to overhaul lower-Manhattan subways: $7.5 billion

Grand Total:114 Billion

Number of people killed in the September 11 Attacks:2819

Now, for natural disasters. I will use hurricanes alone.

Grand total costs based on NHC reports since 1999:175 billion.

Total Deaths in the US:1736 dating back to 2003 (data after that is hard to find).

So....hurricanes (alone! I'm not counting other natural disasters!) have caused much more damage than terrorism, and less than 1000 less deaths. And you argue that it shouldn't get more funding?
All Weather Data is shared completely by the Free World.We use the NATO meteosats for our Military and also share data in Theaters round the World.
Europe: Infrared satellite animation
Link
25. Patrap

That may be why the US is in no hurry to replace Quikscat.
A replacement scatterometer is a coming. Its not critical to get a Quick one, its important to get a good system on Orbit for cost. Takes funding and time for that.
Quikscat has been a testament to Quality , Reliability, redundancy and the folks who designed ,built, launched and maintain it on orbit need a round of applause. Its been a Good return for the Money spent. A rare thing
27. BahaHurican
That may be why the US is in no hurry to replace Quikscat.


The ESA version of QuikScat sux to put it nicely.
28. Patrap 2:07 AM GMT on March 12, 2008
A replacement scatterometer is a coming. Its not critical to get a Quick one, its important to get a good system on Orbit for cost. Takes funding and time for that.
Quikscat has been a testament to Quality , Reliability, redundancy and the folks who designed ,built, launched and maintain it on orbit need a round of applause. Its been a Good return for the Money spent. A rare thing


So, with funding, we could have another one of the same quality that might last almost 10 years. 10 years is very good in satellite life time. All you need is love...I mean money.
Thanks Dr.Masters for the update hopefully NOAA has a Mastercard to charge all the expenses off :)
According to ESA about MetOP's design life (platform of ASCAT):
"Six months of commissioning followed by 4.5 years operational mission"

So it was launched in October 2006, is expected to last until 2011 and we are PLANNING for a 2016 launch! Sure, maybe it will last longer, maybe not (the data still sux, but is something). As for the 2016 launch, those things NEVER happen early, and very rarely when initially planned.

Aside: I know where at least 5 million of NOAA's budget went for this year: In January, at the AMS annual meeting in NOLA there was a GOES-R reception for everybody. Rent out a bar, have all you can eat New Orleans creole food (like mushroom ragoux and Bananas Foster-yum) and all you can drink open bar for ~2000 close friends for free and party until the AM. Even covered tips. Granted, it was very good food and drink and a lot of fun, but damn that was a lot of money.
I hope some of the money can be used to replace the coastal environments that long protected our Gulf shores. For 8 years under a president who cares nothing for the environment except for what money can be made from it, we have a lot of rebuilding to do.

It's not just Nola that could use some replacement of lost coastal marshes but the entire Gulf areas. It's all part of the larger picture to protect America from hurricanes. Without it you can call a warning but there will be nothing to slow a hurricane's damage, the surge.

Yes, I'm a tree hugging environmentalist wacko who thinks that because we once had barrier islands for most of the coast line to help slow down the surge, that we should look into whatever measures it takes to replace those islands and not build MacMansions on them.

It's so nice to label myself. :P But truly there is much about hurricanes that we can learn with that money but we also need to think of not just the forecasting. Defense is only part of the picture. A good defense is helped by a good offense, that offense being replacing barriers to the enemies approach: i.e. marshes, tidal flats and barrier islands.

The cat
I didn't read the whole article or ANY of the posts....5.3 billion!!! Dang!!! I can buy 3 weeks worth of bottled water, don't need to buy the food, batteries, ect... already am prepared for them...And I'm NOT employed!!!

I wonder just what 1 billion, (IN THE RIGHT HANDS!)

Would do to help the Gulf Coast and New Orleans!!!

Sorry, seen too much waste here to fool me!!! Get it to the folks who need it, instead of the major corporations/ research groups!!!

They have failed us BIG time!!!!
I'm sure more funding would be great for hurricane intensity research. Sure let's spend more money, but can anyone tell me why people keep building houses that won't stand up to a serious hurricane? I live on Okinawa, a small island south of Japan, and this island gets category 5 typhoons on a fairly regular basis. Fortunately you will never hear about people dying from them or have to send relief forces in. The reason? People PLAN FOR THEM! They build their houses to withstand hurricanes! They have cement telephone poles, stoplight poles, and things of that nature, so that they don't have to worry about a cat 5 typhoon! I can't understand why people who know they are going to get hit with hurricanes don't plan for them. I have personally been through two category 5 typhoons and while they are scary and we lose power for a few days I still have a house to live in and so does everyone else. It's a very very simple concept, yet no one seems to care. I have a difficult time feeling sorry for prople who don't prepare.
Southernlady...what, you don't think major corporations can save us?? The Fed is giving another two hundred thousand million to Wall Street this week to help us out of the housing crisis. Just consider the generosity.
Stuck, the same point I made when 2 huge hurricanes hit Southern Mexico and the homes there largely survived without any trouble. But it's something of a cultural phenom. that people don't seem to want anything to be built to last. For one, they think will cost too much. Second, they don't think in long term, only as far as the end of their nose. Third, if they considered where they want to build in the first place, they would consider NOT building with wood. BUT...for the houses destroyed in Katrina, many, many, many of them were historic homes built long before people took nature into consideration. To be fair, those people had some grandiose ideas and strangely enough though time has moved on it seems people today have the same thoughts, that with science and technology we can beat whatever mother nature throws at us. These self same people haven't learned a thing from history.

stuckindeleware,

I recommend you read this blog.

The problem here is that developers want to build as many houses as fast as they can for cheap to turn big profits. When these houses are built cheap they just aren't able to stand up to extreme forces of nature.

Plus proper infrastructure isn't built. All our local power lines are above ground and supported by tarred pine logs. Everything in the country, just about, was built to last for only so long so it could be replaced after a number of years. I guess this is so people could continue to have jobs?? I really don't know. I guess nothing lasts forever but then again, we could build something to last for longer than we currently are.
catfuraplenty, post 35 was spot on! I live one mile off the barrier island - Siesta Key. Well, it once was a barrier island...now it has been turned into a homogenized disney-wannbee condo world. My husband and I laugh as we watch crap get built --we know it's a matter of time before mother nature humbles these idiots who pour millions into homes that don't belong there. These places should have been made into parks and left wild - husband always said barriers islands are there for a purpose...to protect the mainland. Why do I have to pay for these people to get their home re-built from flood damage??? If you are dumb enough to live there, you should pick up the tab for your folly.
Franck, sorry with all politeness, but you need to wake up. The Fed is only temporarily assuming the debt from the banks..... They are craftily allowing the banks to move the debt off the books for a while --but, the debt is still there and somebody is going to have to reckon with it. just a smoke and mirror job to delay the reality of accepting consequences for our actions
The Fed is giving another two hundred thousand million to Wall Street this week to help us out of the housing crisis

All this money the fed keeps pouring into the market is exactly what keep the value of our dollar going down.

Then you look at the blog topic which says the NOAA budget is a requested 5.3% larger than last year. Well, when you consider inflation and the fact that our dollar decreases in value by the day that 5.3% larger budget will probably be 5.3% less than last years' budget purchasing power.
The Fed is giving another two hundred thousand million

That's an odd sounding number...what does it look like?

MisterPerfect,

LOL

200,000,000,000


I didn't even realize he wrote that until you mentioned it. I read it as two hundred million. Didn't een see the thousand in between.
so 200 billion then?
49. lindenii 1:23 PM GMT on March 12, 2008
Personally, I am repulsed by Jeff Masters comments comparing terrorism with hurricanes. How desparate can he be.


Lindenii, the Liberal Enviro. people are what is wrong with this country. There are things in this world that must be in place to save our Mother Earth while other things is merely agenda.
I agree that was not a very good comparison. You can't compare multiple events to a single event. Basic statistics.
Yeah,,that Bio-terror Hit list is way up High on my worry list. Not.

I had NBC training as all US Military have, And no,its not a TV Broadcast network.
N,Nuclear..B, Biological,..C, Chemical training.

The Jeff Masters comment was a tounge-in-cheek reference, But some folks are so Up-freaking tight in the anal region they mistake Humor for Fact.

Its a Blog folks, not National Policy.

Lighten up..its only Weds,


Always eyeing the next storm

March 10, 2008, 11:08PM

New director emphasizes need to prepare towns for hurricanes

By ERIC BERGER
Copyright 2008 Houston Chronicle

Bill Read

• Age : 58

• Family: Wife, Donna; son, Jonathan

• Formerly: Meteorologist-in-charge of the Houston/Galveston office of National Weather Service

• Now: Director of the National Hurricane Center

Longtime Houston meteorologist Bill Read's move to Miami to become the new director of the National Hurricane Center hasn't changed his views on hurricane safety one bit. But becoming the nation's most visible forecaster has given him a bigger stage.

From that platform, Read plans to continue delivering a simple message: Local and state planners — not just in Texas, but in all areas vulnerable to hurricanes — need to do more to prepare their communities for storms.

Texas has taken some steps since Hurricane Rita to facilitate evacuations, Read said, but officials haven't done enough to encourage smart development along the coast. That didn't happen in Houston even after Rita, Read said.

"I defy you to find one community that changed their land-use and building codes based upon hurricanes Katrina or Rita," he said. "I'm not a builder, maybe our codes are satisfactory. But that's not what people in that business are telling me. So, we're setting the table for the next big one."

After 16 years of leading the Houston area's National Weather Service forecasting office and seeing his share of floods and strong winds, Read is passionate about protecting coastal communities and speaks his mind. But don't mistake him for his outspoken predecessor, Bill Proenza, who sharply and publicly criticized his bosses and divided his employees.

It was after Proenza's expulsion as director last summer that officials at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration called Read to Miami to be the hurricane center's temporary deputy director.

Being far from his League City home, Read worked extra hours, coming into the office whenever an active storm threatened, to learn more about the craft of the hurricane center's senior forecasters.

He began to win their confidence and, slowly, their trust, no easy task in a workplace where supporters and opponents of Proenza were deeply riven. The extra work helped Read convince his superiors that he was the right choice for the top job, which NOAA announced in January.

"The mood's better now, but there's still a lot of things we need to do," Read said of the Miami office.

A private company with expertise in conflict resolution and organization building has been brought in.

"It takes time," Read said. "It's like any traumatic event in your life."

An early interest

Regardless of the circumstances, Read is thrilled to be in Miami.

By some estimates, 80 percent of all National Weather Service forecasters know before junior high that they want a career in weather. Read said he knew by the fourth grade, when his parents told him to close the front door as he stood in its frame, transfixed by winter storms in Delaware.

Of the 13 U.S. schools that offered undergraduate degrees in meteorology, Texas A&M University was the only one to accept Read unconditionally. He described himself as an average high school student. As he studied weather in college, Read said, he did better academically.

After earning his bachelor's degree, Read enlisted in the Navy and obtained a slot in its weather reconnaissance program. He soon learned that volunteers who flew into winter storms and hurricanes were paid an extra $100 a month.

Read, who at that point in his life had taken a total of five airline flights, found himself guiding P3 airplanes into hurricanes. After the pilots lost radar, Read's job was to keep the plane pointed toward the storm's center, based upon the wind pattern on the ocean.

"Can you imagine seasoned aircrews flying into hurricanes and winter storms, trusting their safety to a fresh graduate who had been on five flights?" he asked. "I didn't think about that until much later, but I probably brought religion to a bunch of people who thanked God that they got back alive."

After a four-year stint in the Navy, Read returned to Texas A&M for graduate school and by 1978 had landed a forecast intern position at the National Weather Service office in San Antonio. He became a staff forecaster and served in Fort Worth and at the National Weather Service headquarters in Silver Spring, Md., before being appointed head of the Houston/Galveston office in 1992.

Late last month, sitting in his League City office filled with little more than packed boxes, Read recalled the turbulent weather he experienced in Houston, including the outbreak of 17 tornadoes just after he moved to the area and the Hurricane Rita evacuation. He's learned to stay calm under fire.

"Anyone who has seen me working on a computer when it freezes up might question whether I'm calm under duress," Read said. "But I can stay calm on the big issues. It's the little ones that drive me insane, like shanking a wedge on the last hole when I've got a chance to shoot a good round."

Earning respect
The quality of remaining calm has helped Read win over local emergency planners.

"The thing about Bill, he's not going to get you worked up unless you need to be," said John Simsen, Galveston County's emergency management coordinator. "He's helped us not overreact. He's helped us draw that fine line between creating hysteria and not warning people sufficiently."

That's important praise for Read, whose main job now, in part, is to work with emergency management coordinators in coastal communities.

Read's experience also should help him succeed, said Lew Fincher, vice president of Hurricane Consulting Inc., a local firm that works with the public and private sectors to prepare for hurricanes.

"He brings to the table his experience in a local forecast office," Fincher said. "Few of the hurricane specialists in Miami have been there before, and they really don't understand what these guys are going through when they're preparing a local forecast."

In another boost for Read, the proposed 2009 federal budget contains more money for hurricane research and new weather satellites. Read said the money is important if scientists are to better understand how storms rapidly intensify. Last season, he and other forecasters were amazed as a cloudy swirl of low pressure intensified into Hurricane Humberto within 30 hours. The system struck the upper Texas coast as a strong Category 1 hurricane.

"It was just another reminder that we don't know how to forecast rapid intensification," he said. "That's going to be a priority of mine.
2008 National Hurricane Conference

March 31-April 4 |The Rosen Centre Hotel |Orlando, FL

The nation's forum for education and professional training in hurricane preparedness!
Link

Purpose of the Conference

The primary goal of the National Hurricane Conference is to improve hurricane preparedness, response, recovery and mitigation in order to save lives and property in the United States and the tropical islands of the Caribbean and Pacific. In addition, the conference serves as a national forum for federal, state and local officials to exchange ideas and recommend new policies to improve Emergency Management.

To accomplish these goals, the annual conference emphasizes:



* Lessons Learned from Hurricane Strikes.

* State of the art programs worthy of emulation.

* New ideas being tested or considered.

* Information about new or ongoing assistance programs.

* The ABC's of hurricane preparedness, response, recovery and mitigation -- in recognition of the fact that there is a continual turnover of emergency management leadership and staff.
PatRap i agree with you but, one terrists event would make the worst Hurricane look like a puppy compared to a grown pit bull.
You havent been throught the Post-Katrina impact Zone Have you?
Thats from the Fla /ALA border to Central Louisiana. Thats a 3 hour drive .
Havent seen a Terrorist action on the Planet that takes 3 hours to Drive thru.

NOAA Impact Map Link

BUT...for the houses destroyed in Katrina, many, many, many of them were historic homes built long before people took nature into consideration.

Well, kindof. Most of the oldest, most historic homes suffered very little damage at all. It's the drain swamp/build fast using cheap materials homes that were most likely to suffer extreme damage.

Also, when I volunteered for habitat in NOLA, they told us that no habitat home suffered more than cosmetic damage during Katrina. All were built up higher than required, all had straps (cement supports to floor to studs to top plate to rafters). Outside of that, though, the notion is stunning that college students and office types could possibly build a house that withstands a Katrina so much better than some built by actual homebuilders. I call it a testament to poor code enforcement, shoddy cookie cutter house construction, and the curse of the lowest bidder.
LOL...another myth...
Where were these Habitat homes Pre-K?

Never saw a Habitat home anywhere in NOLA till after POST-K..period.

H for H website..Link
Never saw a Habitat home anywhere in NOLA to POST-K..period.

If I remember right, upper 9th and gentilly. Of course they have built many more after the storm than before.

From the habitat page:
"Facing Hurricane Katrina's 100 m.p.h winds, Habitat homes did not suffer external or structural damage. On streets where homes lost walls, roofs, or simply crumbled from the crushing winds, Habitat homes still stand straight, fully intact.
Habitat has always built to Florida hurricane codes, and will continue to make certain Habitat homeowners reside in the best possible dwellings."

Hmmm, Pat, we might have to admit that there is something good about Florida after all.

Just kidding folks, couldn't resist the jab. I know we are far outnumbered here, anyway.
Pat, the NOLA habitat page: Link
Not many homes here were damaged by wind.With 8-12 ft of water..wind aint ya problem. All the Homes were damaged by water by a greater extent. Wind claimed more of the High Rise windows and roofs of structures.
But the main point is wetland protection. If we would of had all the marsh and Cypress in place below the city as in 65. The damage would not have been as bad, and the surge too. Oil and Marine interests from Oil has decimated a once protective marshland , into a mere speed bump to a Bad fast moving surge.
Andrew showed folks in Fla about wind loading. and Killed in Louisiana too, in His 2nd Landfall.

Katrina showed the Power of surge, and size.

Both hard lessons never to be forgotten.
I gave a filmed interview Saturday to a Group doing a Nationwide political documentary. We went thru all the Breach ares save for the Lower 9th. The spookiest thing to them and me still, is the empty hoods with no children and no visible signs of life.

I pointed out all those Raising to FEMA codes levels and I really like the Habitat Homes. Point being, these Homes here in the City are never going to be destroyed in a wind event. Cypress 8 by 8's like in my home here are 100Plus years Old.As are most of the Garden District. It was those homes in the east, built in the 60s-80s that suffered so bad, and may never recover.
Unless preventing hurricane damage can make billions of dollars for the few stockholders of this nation, there will be no "need" to properly fund it. However, the reconstruction contracts do provide some nice cushy financial incentives for those folks...ie...Haliburton to name one... Sounds like this extra 10 mil is a bone that they threw out to keep the criticism and bad publicity down.
More and more I'm learning that capitalists dont care about anything but the money in their own pockets, and since they bought and paid for our legislation, well it goes without saying that human suffering for them is ok if its profitable.
sad, but true.
It was those homes in the east, built in the 60s-80s that suffered so bad, and may never recover.
Amen! Just how did those get labeled as "historic" anyway?

...never to be forgotten

Man, I hope so. Wouldn't that be nice. Unfortunately Camille was forgotten in Bay St. Louis and Betsy was forgotten when it came time for congress to actually fund USACE's needs for levee construction. I really do hope no one forgets this time.
The governments responsibilty is to protect the American People. That does include the responsibilty of the levees that failed. It is not the governments responbility to protect people that build a home in irresponsible high risk places and if they do it becomes their individual choice and their own responsiblity to make sure they secure their investment.
Hey would you guys be interested in a couple of film loops of storm surge data?

I have some results of storm surge modeling. One is what would be the result in NOLA during Katrina if NO levee breached, but overtopping still occured? The second is what if Katrina followed a track 30 miles to the west and finished the ERC and spun back up a little? I promise that second one is a little scary.

Katrina was NOT the be all end all of hurricanes for NOLA.
I have posted 2 avi loops.

Be aware: They are not all that small.
12 MB loop of Katrina with no levee breaks here.

18 MB loop of Katrina, a little stronger and track shifted 30 miles west Link

Both have a contour legend in feet relative to sea level (WGS84)

A screenshot of the height of the surge in the westward shifted track animation (yes, that is 34 feet above sea level and yes Slidell is entirely flooded and even Picayune, MS. Remember that the NOLA levees are not failing in this, just overtopping...all of them.)
Here's a nice image of TC Jokwe as it weakens southwest of Madagascar. The core is still fairly well defined with dry air starting to eat away the NW quad. Current winds are sustained at 45 knots, pressure 989mb. Jokwe will move slowly westward and weaken to depression status within 48 hours. Click the thumbnail for a full-sized image.

Free Image Hosting at www.ImageShack.us

There is really no way to prepare for a bioterrorism attack. You can see about where a hurricane is heading but who knows where someone will decide they want to kill everyone. Also being overly worried about it would lead to policies contrary to our basic beliefs in liberty, privacy and freedom.

The concept of "Manifest Destiny" is built on a base understanding of the inherent good of all people and is Fundamental to Our Founding Philosophy as a secular Nation. It has become stylish in revisionist circles to attach Bigotry, Racism Imperial and anti religious undertones to it.

Already, as seen below, someone made an inappropriate and incorrect statement regarding the religious beliefs of others.

Its all hype and political marketing anyway. Earlier this month another near earth asteroid miss occurred with no early detection and no notice. Should one of those happen at hypersonic speeds the result would be catastrophic, but our space budget doesn't allow for a detection network close to earth. Even though we have astronauts stationed in harms' way 24/7 now.

Ref-

Asteroid Date Miss Distance Mag. Size
2008 DH5 Mar. 5 7.1 LD 18 60 m
2008 EZ7 Mar. 9 0.4 LD 18 18 m
2008 ED8 Mar. 10 1.4 LD 12 64 m
1620 Geographos Mar. 17 49 LD 13 3 km
2003 FY6 Mar. 21 6.3 LD 15 145 m
Great Synopsis of the Hurricane Research Funding Issues pending Dr. M......Interesting to me how the issue of rapid intensification (the eluding question for so many years) is seemingly based upon a lot of quality "real time" data and the idea of higher resolution computer models, and UAV's in and around the storm, to get this type of data is indeed fascinating as for so many historical storms (as of now) the one of the main bellweathers for rapid intensification has oftentimes been a storm approaching/going over a warmer water source such as the Gulf Steam/Loop Eddy/Warm Water Pools in the Gulf......This warmer water issue aside, what are these "fine scale" processes? (predicting sudden pressure drops based upon _______________________?)....Very Challenging Issues.
Here's a new feature on the CIMSS tropical page that's really going to be nice this season. This loop of precipitable water in the Indian Ocean over the past 72 hours shows Tropical Cyclones Jokwe and Kamba as clockwise spins west of Madagascar and along longitude 80w respectively. As Jokwe moves south you can see how it is starting to pull dry continental air off of the African continent into its circulation from the northwest. The spin of Kamba is easy to see along 80w throughout the loop and shows a classic example of dry air getting wrapped into the core and weakening the system, which is now fully dissipated as a result. These images are taken nearly every hour(and the latest image shown is only 2 hours old) which is very very nice, but as a result this 72 hour loop is 14MB, so be patient if you wish to view it.
surfmom...sorry, guess I should wake up. Yes, temporary assumption of the debt.
Since most Climatic Data from our government is censored:

Too many icebergs to round Cape Horn

"According to the Routing Southern Pacific chart - I am only approaching the boundaries of drifting ice but the map is 10 years old and with global warming, is not valid any more. Here in the Southern Ocean I can see that Antarctica is rapidly losing its ice shield on a large scale", reported Fedor Konyukhov on March 7th.

Link




Its strange that so many would buy into Calling GW some kind of conspiracy when our government ACTIVELY and OPENLY censors government agencies' scientific findings. The CIA and DOD have even released reports on its impact.



Some political implications of the melt in the North:



Could Arctic ice melt start a new cold war?
Mar 10, 2008 11:44 AM

With oil above $100 a barrel and Arctic ice melting faster than ever, some of the world's most powerful countries - including the United States and Russia - are looking north to a possible energy bonanza.

This prospective scramble for buried Arctic mineral wealth made more accessible by freshly melted seas could bring on a completely different kind of cold war, a scholar and former Coast Guard officer says.
Thats ridiculous,..

Reality aint a James Bond movie.


No pat, reality is much more tacky and unbelievable and also has more shallow and seemingly superficial actors than a bad James Bond movie.
Live and let Die was good.
That was my favorite.

More on the Antarctic Ice Saga :


paper also states that the thickness of the Pine Island Glacier has shrunk by an average of 3.8 centimeters annually over the past 4,700 years. But the Smith and Pope glaciers have only lost 2.3 centimeters of their thickness annually during the past 14,500 years. Satellite measurements taken between 1992 and 1996, though, show a loss of 1.6 meters in thickness per year on the Pine Island Glacier - a figure that represents 42 times the average melt of the past 4,700 years.

In March 2007, a team of researchers estimated the net loss of ice in Greenland and the Antarctic to be 125 gigatons per year. According to the researchers, melting land ice in the polar regions accounts for around 10 percent of the current rise in sea level, which is about three millimeters per year at present.

Yet that is far from being the whole story, says Rignot. According to his team's most recent research, the results of which will soon be published in the scientific journal Geophysical Research Letters, the acceleration of glacier flow in West Antarctica is not only continuing but was larger in 2006-2007 than ever before. "Simple models also predict that this is only the beginning," Rignot say, "as these glaciers could easily double their speed in years to come."


I was looking at the Ice because of temperature Anomalies from the Links MSTL posts on his blog. This year a lot seems to be occurring down there.

I wonder if conspiracy theorists will continue advocating the suppression of research findings, by presidential decree here in the USA.

Ref-

No fewer than 1,191 scientists employed at nine federal agencies have reported to the group that they fear retaliation from their superiors because the results of their research are threatening to corporate or other interests
49. lindenii 1:23 PM GMT on March 12, 2008
Personally, I am repulsed by Jeff Masters comments comparing terrorism with hurricanes. How desparate can he be. I know he is driven to push his belief in global warming but, this is totally off the reservation.

BoyKris is even further off the reservation with his ignorant comparison of the 9/11 event which was done by pseudo-Islamic neanderthals and hurricanes which are a weather event. In the 9/11 event, those victims had absolutely no warning they were to be murdered. Unlike the hurricane victims who had days warnings that the storms (note the fact of multiple hurricanes versus one single event on 9/11) were advancing and to take cover.

Attempting to equate human events with weather events, especially terrorism is totally wrong and disgustingly insensitive. Find something else to compare to the weather!!!


I'm really ticked off by this. You took my comment and Dr. Master's out of context. First, he said:

Getting a $300 million per year project funded in a time of "increasingly small non-defense discretionary budgets" is difficult. To put this number in perspective, the annual amount spent in the U.S. on meteorology operations and supporting research is $3 billion. About $900 million per year of this goes to run the National Weather Service. The federal budget request for FY 2009 for flu pandemic emergency preparedness is $820 million--about the same amount of money that is spent for the entire National Weather Service! What's really startling is the amount of money spent on bioterrorism emergency preparedness--between $3 and $6 billion per year since 2002, with $4.3 billion requested for 2009. That's over 200 times what we spend on hurricane research, and over ten times the $300 million for hurricane research proposed by the National Science Board. A catastrophic bioterrorism attack on the U.S. may never occur, but catastrophic hurricane strikes are guaranteed. These strikes will occur with increasing frequency in the future, as more people move to the coast and the population increases. A major increase in hurricane research funding will reduce the costs of these future disasters, and is very much in order.

He meant: hurricane strikes have caused historically, more death and destruction to us, so why in the heck are they put on the backburner? And my comment was in response to some blogger known as latitude25. I was comparing the death and destruction from terrorists attacks over the past ten years to those from hurricanes. And geuss what ....hurricanes have done more! It's not "disgustingly insensitive"...it's making a point and backing it up with facts.
weatherboykris the politicos selectively interpret everything. I wouldn't worry about what they think.

The recent research of Mikl%s Z%ugoni is a case in point, He doesn't argue there is no GW, or that it wont change the climate, he just basically points out that the issue is more complicated than first thought. Of course the ignoramus faction here at WU have been running through the street claiming this means GW is not real. But it doesn't. Again they will calm down, read what is said and see they are proven the fools yet again.

There is a lot more climatic work needed to be done but reducing greenhouse gases is an agreed option in slowing climatic change mechanisms.
Well, I'm what you would call a AGW skeptic JFLORIDA...I question why it has been warming. Still...I'm not one of those "it's a liberal agenda!" dorks.
Well keep reading up on it. Just as I am. Im sure there is some small aspect of truth in all conclusions. But its very important don't let them deny that.

As for your induction into the Liberal Agenda Club . Welcome! Take a seat and realize Everyone that disagrees with them is a member.

LOL, right?
Sorry no linking abilities with the iPhone. Copy and paste: http://www.geocraft.com/WVFossils/greenhouse_data.html
interesting site. Sure to spark some controversy.
As for my previous post, I'm not saying we shouldn't reduce our anthropogenic output. I'm all for saving the rainforest and barrier islands. I just think its interesting to see some data on the whole greenhouse drama.
Using Conventional Visible Imagery to indentify surface features

Correct wording in image number 2 should be coral atolls

The Mississippi and Red Rivers



Coral Atolls (Jardines de la Reina) south of the Cuban Island...along with the sea breeze front. The sea breeze front is a non-geographic feature but I highlighted it just for ineterest. There are two sea breeze fronts from the Caribbean Sea and Atlantic Ocean that move inland and converge at the center. In summer, there is enough instability (heat, moisture, upper lows, etc) to produce thunderclouds. Also notice the cirris spikes in the upper part of the image.



Lake Izabal over Guatemala



Sometimes, these satellite maps do not draw the boundary of all landmasses, especially the small ones like the Florida Keys and Providencia Island off the coast of Nicaragua. The latter was rather unfair especially tracking hurricane Beta back in 2005. The image below illustrates the island of Nevis, just south of the island of Saint Kitts in the Leeward Islands.



I would of liked to have gotten a visible image of forest/trees in the Amazon and Panama but there are just to many clouds obscuring.
Of course, polar orbiting satellites such as MODIS Aqua and MODIS Terra do a much better job than geostationary satellites like those Goes-12 images posted previously, mainly due to their closer proximity to the earth.

The same island of Nevis..Image taken by MODIS Terra on 12 Mar 2008.



Oops, Mississippi River, not. Red River partly.
Weather456 the top two arrows in your graphic point out the Red River. The bottom arrow only points to the Mississippi River.

The Mississippi river makes almost the entire border between Mississippi and Louisiana until just north of Baton Rouge...where our boundary breaks away from the river to make our boot like form.
Don't want to dip into the fray, but...gosh...just can't help it.

Attempting to equate human events with weather events, especially terrorism is totally wrong ...

Our responses to the weather are human events. For the sake of example, the response to Rita in the Houston area, quite frankly, was a panic. Roads were choked before any hurricane warning was issued for ANY part of the coast line. I know of people in my area who managed to travel 1/2 mile from their house at 5:30 am on Thursday prior to the early Saturday morning landfall. After two hours, they turned around and went home. They lived in a poor area with little access to major highways.

There are multiple opportunities (problems) with this picture. The need for improved forecasting is only one of them. Making better use of the forecasts we already are able to make is another one.
That bottom arrow might point to my elementary school!
thanks honda...corrected it....apparently i used my memory rather than back checked the map.
I think your pic might show bottom land hardwood forests for Lousisiana more than it does rivers per se. Not sure what the series of pics is intending.
Well, the old adage about 'blog bullies' as come true once again.

BoyKris cannot seem to keep it polite and simply explain his position without abusive name calling. I guess that is what being a 'blog bully' is all about.

One point of comment though. 9/11 was, so far, a one time event that claimed almost 3000 innocent victims. BoyKris had to span mulitple years of hurricane activity to equal the same loss of life. Talk about trivializing the MURDER of those folks on 9/11 ... :-(

How can he or Jeff Masters keep on ignoring the report by NOAA scientists that the most damaging hurricane was not in this century but was, instead, way back somewhere around 1925? Perhaps BoyKris could take the time to read the report ehh?

Probably not..he would much rather resprt to abusive name calling and explitives.

Tsk tsk.

Should he, as he commented, be banned for his abusive commentary?

ABSOLUTELY NOT.
80. weatherboykris 2:16 PM EDT on March 12, 2008 comment.
49. lindenii 1:23 PM GMT on March 12, 2008
First, I don't give a damn if this results in a 24 hour ban, I'm really ticked off by this. You f^&*ing neocon idiot
.

First I request once again that if you are paying any attention at all to this buffoon you not post copies of his incoherent blathering for those of us who aren't. 2nd whatever he says do not respond to him emotionally because that is what his kind live for.

HIGHLY RECOMMENDED READING FOR THOSE WHO FREQUENT THIS SITE: Link
How can he or Jeff Masters keep on ignoring the report by NOAA scientists that the most damaging hurricane was not in this century but was, instead, way back somewhere around 1925?

Dont know - well, because it is not relevant perhaps? Very little early warning then.

Considering the [over] Reaction to 9/11 has also made matters worse that money wasn't well spent. 9/11 wasn't evaluated independently. AND At least with research we would have something to show.

Also interesting to note the Bush administration via the EPA initially suppressed info concerning the toxicity of the dust form the tower collapse.

Ref-

The Environmental Protection Agency's internal watchdog says White House officials pressured the agency to prematurely assure the public that the air was safe to breathe a week after the World Trade Center collapse.


"Competing considerations, such as national security concerns and the desire to reopen Wall Street, also played a role in EPA's air quality statements," the report said.


"Bioterror" depending on your definition of "Bioterror" and your religious affiliations obviously.

need more:

Firefighters' Lung Capacity Suffered After 9/11 Work

People should speak up about these kind of things as they apply to other areas of research and the most basic role of the government scientist in informing the public. (see below.)

If you use government funding of 9/11 "fixes" as example, it should always be in context of there real effectiveness.
95. lindenii 10:04 PM GMT on March 12, 2008
Well, the old adage about 'blog bullies' as come true once again.

BoyKris cannot seem to keep it polite and simply explain his position without abusive name calling. I guess that is what being a 'blog bully' is all about.

One point of comment though. 9/11 was, so far, a one time event that claimed almost 3000 innocent victims. BoyKris had to span mulitple years of hurricane activity to equal the same loss of life. Talk about trivializing the MURDER of those folks on 9/11 ... :-(

How can he or Jeff Masters keep on ignoring the report by NOAA scientists that the most damaging hurricane was not in this century but was, instead, way back somewhere around 1925? Perhaps BoyKris could take the time to read the report ehh?

Probably not..he would much rather resprt to abusive name calling and explitives.

Tsk tsk.

Should he, as he commented, be banned for his abusive commentary?

ABSOLUTELY NOT.

97. ShenValleyFlyFish 10:28 PM GMT on March 12, 2008
80. weatherboykris 2:16 PM EDT on March 12, 2008 comment.
49. lindenii 1:23 PM GMT on March 12, 2008
First, I don't give a damn if this results in a 24 hour ban, I'm really ticked off by this. You f^&*ing neocon idiot.

First I request once again that if you are paying any attention at all to this buffoon you not post copies of his incoherent blathering for those of us who aren't. 2nd whatever he says do not respond to him emotionally because that is what his kind live for.

HIGHLY RECOMMENDED READING FOR THOSE WHO FREQUENT THIS SITE: Link



Alright. I did cross a line with all of the cussing. I apologize. I just get very upset when someone accuses me, and another man who uses hard facts to back up his case, "disgustingly insensitive" to those who were murdered on that horrible day. I disagree with you vehemently, but I apologize for my swearing.
kris still you should go back and edit your own post. Just because YOU can. I do that and I think it is a good idea to be self correcting.

I didn't know it at first but there are a lot of really young people that come here and it is considered a family friendly site.

Thats a good thing. Thanks.
Alright.
99. weatherboykris

I apologize if the way I stated my point made it appear that my beef was with you. I know how hard it is to deal with imbeciles. I was trying to encourage you to just hit the ignore button and go on with your life..
97. ShenValleyFlyFish 10:28 PM GMT on March 12, 2008
80. weatherboykris 2:16 PM EDT on March 12, 2008 comment.
49. lindenii 1:23 PM GMT on March 12, 2008

First I request once again that if you are paying any attention at all to this buffoon you not post copies of his incoherent blathering for those of us who aren't. 2nd whatever he says do not respond to him emotionally because that is what his kind live for.


*****************

Don't you just love a 'blog bully' ( bb's )? Not only does he childishly and futilely 'take his ball and go home' he expects you to do it too. It appears that is either agree with him or shut the heck up and make sure that everyone else follows your lead. One of the last bastions of controlled speech was in Soviet Russia under communism. Is that what they expect to be able to establish here? Sure does seem so.

What are the words he used? Buffoon... imbecile... Has anyone seen me stoop so low?

Ah...the world of bb's is so simple, if someone gets the best of them...bb's will do all in their power to silence you!! To them it is simple...MIGHT MAKES RIGHT.
Modis Image of the Low Pressure area that moved into Europe on Monday

91. bappit 9:45 PM GMT on March 12, 2008
Don't want to dip into the fray, but...gosh...just can't help it.

Attempting to equate human events with weather events, especially terrorism is totally wrong ...

Our responses to the weather are human events. For the sake of example, the response to Rita in the Houston area, quite frankly, was a panic. Roads were choked before any hurricane warning was issued for ANY part of the coast line. I know of people in my area who managed to travel 1/2 mile from their house at 5:30 am on Thursday prior to the early Saturday morning landfall. After two hours, they turned around and went home. They lived in a poor area with little access to major highways.

There are multiple opportunities (problems) with this picture. The need for improved forecasting is only one of them. Making better use of the forecasts we already are able to make is another one.


************

Presented in the way you just did...I agree completely.

What worries me is that the money will be given to people with preconcieved notions of the outcome, similar to the UN and it's pseudo-scientific report. I, for example, wouldn't want Jeff Masters to have any part in the research because of his obvious bias toward a single viewpoint. Dr. Grey is an other example; he freely admitted to his bias toward global warming in his preliminary comments in his predictions back in December.

As the NOAA scientists noted in their report, man has developed the coastal regions will little regard for the consequences of harsh weather and the destructive conditions. Can we pass laws to force people to evacuate an area with the threat of arrest for refusal to heed to warnings. Not likely. One simple solution is to allow insurance companies to refuse to cover property in coastal areas prone to hurricane conditions. Another would be to refuse to help people to re-build with free governmental assistance. Loans, yes...freebies no. After all they knew the dangers when they built or bought in that area and they should be held accountable.

In the case of Katrina, the true damage didn't occur until after the main part of the storm had passed. I can remember the tv reports that the storm had cleared and all were sighing with relief. Slowly reports can trickling in that a portion of the retainer wall had sprung a leak and helicopters showed to little breach turn into to a gaping hole.

In that case, it was and is clear that the state of Louisiana and the Army Corps were grossly negligent in the way that they had maintained the system and that made them completely at fault and liable to every resident to make things as they were before the break.

New Orleans was negligent when it refused to deploy the buses properly and in a timely manner so that people could safely evacuate.

Finally, the money would be best spent developing new technologies to enable us to have a better idea of what was occuring and what the predictions might be and in a more accurate way as well. Helping governmental groups like cities and counties to determine their weaknesses and to correct them is another area where that money could be spent.

Subsidizing the global warming wonks should not even be considered, this is about new technology and data gathering, not political posturing.

Clarification: Global warming and global cooling are different sides to the same coin ie heads or tails. The World population will continue to rise and it would be sheer folly to ignore the fact that conservation of resources and the containment of pollution will, sooner than later, become vital for our survival. Engaging in Chicken Little tactics is just the most untruthful way to accomplish the task we have ahead of us.
It is time that you guys go somewhere else with this argument, please.
greetings, jfv, how are you doing ?
98. JFLORIDA 10:44 PM GMT on March 12, 2008
How can he or Jeff Masters keep on ignoring the report by NOAA scientists that the most damaging hurricane was not in this century but was, instead, way back somewhere around 1925?

Dont know - well, because it is not relevant perhaps? Very little early warning then.

....
Firefighters' Lung Capacity Suffered After 9/11 Work

People should speak up about these kind of things as they apply to other areas of research and the most basic role of the government scientist in informing the public. (see below.)

If you use government funding of 9/11 "fixes" as example, it should always be in context of there real effectiveness.

******************
First....
The NOAA scientists made it clear that the damages in this century more largely related to uncontrolled growth of coastal communities and the total lack of consideration for the effects of weather on those areas and that when all those issues were taken into account the storm back around 1925 was decidely more destructive.

Second...
I can only think of a governmental scientist in the same way that I think of most governmnent employees. They do not have a vested interest in what they are doing. A governmental scientist is more likely to do as they are told and not ask questions...after things can be presented to them as having a security issue, similar to what the EPA did right after 9/11...they may have thought differently but, after all, it might indeed by of national security to not tell the whole story... especially right away.

One last thought...
I hate to break to you folks...in all recounts in Florida...GWB won every count. I voted for him and now I am very sorry that I did...I refuse to let my dislike of his performance cloud my objectivity. Time to let go of the resentment and go back to being scientists and give up on Bush bashing at every opportunity.
106. pottery 12:59 AM GMT on March 13, 2008
It is time that you guys go somewhere else with this argument, please.


**********

You are right. Consider it done.
Shuttle to do the Rendezvous Pitch Maneuver or "Back-flip" to allow the ISS crew to Photo Detail the Tiles and wing leading edges.

The docking is scheduled for 10:25 pm cst. the Backflip will occur about an Hour before docking.
NASA TV..under "webcast" here Link

Lindenii, ok.
whats with the fragrans atavar, do you collect orchids??


I have a hurricane destruction how much money question.

When they count the destruction from hurricanes, do they count the flooding inland from heavy rains with the hurricane?

What I'm trying to get a handle on, is how far back from the coast do they consider coastal.

If they count all the cost of the destruction from a hurricane, all the way inland, but only accuse the people living right on the coast of costing all the money.
Seriously...

Can we keep the global warming rhetoric out of the blog unless it's the topic?

I don't think Dr.Masters mentioned global warming once in the discussion so I don't know how using global warming as a prop in your arugument here makes any sense.

Also, it's amazing how out of all the text up in the post someone can take one sentence and and seize on it to put forth their views on political issues.

It saddens me how weather and politics have becomed mixed up together. There's no political solution to the weather. It's not like someone can make a decree and suddenly the hurricanes won't come anymore. Very disappointing.
Well, thats a good question, Sullivanweather. What is the answer, somebody please.
SORRY, the question was by lat.25.
Well the answer is yes. LOL

so if you really move everyone away from the coast, you would have to clean out LA, Miss, Al, GA, FL, SC, NC, and at least 1/4 of Texas.

Then they have to live somewhere.

So you take all of that building, infrastructure, and money

and move it where there are tornadoes, floods, fires, snow and ice storms, droughts, lightning, earthquakes, etc

and guess what

Now hurricanes are costing less, but you are being denied insurance because you live in Kansas.
heheheh, it's a hard life, lat25.
move to the south caribbean. we dont have bad weather, just crazy politics !!!
LOL
After this cold winter we had, I almost took you up on that. Ever seen shrunken coconuts on the tree? ;-)
Yes, they consider inland flooding with the damage statistics. Camille, for instance, caused a lot of damage in the Appalachians. Trying to find a NOAA web page documenting it.

Shrunk coco nuts ? Did not know that could happen. Strange times.........
Seriously...

Can we keep the global warming rhetoric out of the blog unless it's the topic?


That was from a few days ago. Arctic and antarctic ice melt is a valid topic especially when it is occurring at a rate not seen in thousands of years.

I'm tired of GW CONSTANTLY being mentioned and snipes taken at by others but when someone shows up to discuss it all of a sudden its a forbidden topic.

Why would you even say that? Its actually not a political topic, when people like you refuse to discusses it makes it one. You let those with political agendas control the discussion.

I think its amazing how weak minded people are allowed to control even the act of discussion of some topics and how people that should know better just let them.
Heck, Hurricane Agnes flooded the heck out of the northeast.

Most deaths from hurricanes are caused by inland flooding from rain is what I remember.
LOL lat.25

I've always said the earth is polluted with people.
JFL, unfortunately, the discussions on this blog concerning g/w in any of its guises, does not seem to result in anything but angst. Strange though.
I think that everyone is polarised in this, and nothing can be said here that has not been said somewhere esle and either trashed or lauded previously.
Sad though.......
There's no political solution to the weather

I don't know of a single significant problem society faces that does not get politicized. At least people have kept religion out of it!

Ooops ... maybe I shouldn't have posted that.

There isn't much going on now and the "bust" is from having to repeat every study and observation a hundred times because someone has been allowed to repeat misinformation without challenge.

Ill say it again people shouldn't be allowed to "win" an argument, a very important one, using incorrect information just because no one around has the stomach to discuss it.

The Big Study the Anti GW folks were reposting here in this blog didn't actually disagree with anything and obviously none of them bothered to read it, or discus it, as it was written in Hungarian.
AAAAAAGGGGGGGGHHHHHHHHHHHHHH-------- Babbit, what have you done ??? heheherh
You have crazy politics, Pottery? (not you personally, but where you live)
I am for more spending on hurricane research and monitoring. The fact that Dr. M chose to compare current spending with other government spending made the blog political, because he made a political statement. He could just as easy have compared the NWS budget with spending on ethanol subsidies which were 7 billion in 2006 and rising rapidly, so why did he choose terrorism? Our ethanol subsidies are having the affect of killing far more people globally than hurricanes and terrorism combined. They're starving to death.

Oh here is an interesting graph from COAPS on hurricanes.

.....but who detirmines what is info and what is mis-info ???
....but who detirmines what is info and what is mis-info ???

JFLORIDA of course, lol
That is why you discus it and actually do the math.
I would not consider Jackson Mississippi - coastal

But Jackson Mississippi was flatened by Katrina
An additional what five million for improving hurricane track forecasts and intensity? That's not a helluva lot considering the fed alone had to write checks in excess of $100 billion for Katrina! But, that doesn't surprise me any! The federal budget is so out of whack and serves so many special interests it's pathetic. Maybe hurricane research should be privatized and get out from the governmental bureaucracy and politics, and on to the real issues at hand - substantially improving forecasting, better awareness, preparedness and warning systems!

Crazy politics big time, Babbit. 7 miles from Chavez in the south, and with a huge US investment in petroleum, and the cocaine trade through here to everywhere, its out of control.
I agree with Sebastianjer that Dr. M. brought politics in through the front door with his blog post, but realistically I don't think you can keep it out if you are talking about something that is really important to a lot of people.
Privatized - is that a non biased approach?
Ouch, Pottery!

Ow, ow, ow, ow, ow.
But Jackson Mississippi was flatened by Katrina

That's hyperbole, right?
Politics, ie: big government, is in EVERYTHING! No way to avoid it! Government thinks it should do and run it all. And, it's a fallacy. What we need is less government, caps on spending, and integral men and women to serve. Apparently, all the NHC needs is better lobbyists!
what are we scraping about tonight
The cocaine, uh, importers in Pottery's neck of the woods are a private concern I expect. Privatization sounds good.
The fact that Dr. M chose to compare current spending with other government spending made the blog political, because he made a political statement. He could just as easy have compared the NWS budget with spending on ethanol subsidies which were 7 billion in 2006 and rising rapidly, so why did he choose terrorism?

Because terrorism, like hurricanes, kill people. Ethanol subsidies aren't going to kill people.
sullivanweather 2:07 AM GMT on March 13, 2008

Yea, he needs to provide real numbers or research. See what I mean.
Sully, ethanol subsidies may not be killing people directly; but, indirectly, it's a slow kill and a smoke screen for consumers - that is until its production becomes more efficient and ppgl comes down. Meanwhile, the lobby that promotes the use of food materials for ethanol gets wealthy as well as some of the crop growers(but not comparatively), all of which ultimately also hurts the food supply and damages other mechanisms that depend on the grain - those other than fuel.
whats talk a little about this year hurricane season
I agree with Sebastianjer that Dr. M. brought politics in through the front door with his blog post

Is it not up to politicians to fund this research? NOAA can put the budget request on the desk of the politicians but it becomes up to them to pass the bill and the president to sign it into law.

I'm just amazed how a couple of lines in his post can turn into some of the statements I'm reading here, such as this:


49. lindenii
Personally, I am repulsed by Jeff Masters comments comparing terrorism with hurricanes. How desparate can he be. I know he is driven to push his belief in global warming but, this is totally off the reservation.
Ethanol subsidies aren't going to kill people.

sulli, the UN has already called another world food shortage because of bio-fuels.
Rainforests are being cleared at a faster rate than ever to plant palms for palm oil - bio-fuel.

and on and on

You read my post about that before, didn't you??
Hello all, When does everyone think we will see our first named storm? Before the season begins??
of which ultimately also hurts the food supply and damages other mechanisms that depend on the grain

MLC,

I was going to add that into my post, how producing food crops into ethanol starve poor people in developing nations that depend on our charity, but I figured that it was an indirect effect as opposed to the direct effect of terror attack directly kills people, or a hurricane landfall directly kills people.
The hot spots now, temp wise seem to be in the top northern hemisphere and Antarctica Taz. But I don't know if this will matter by the time the season rolls around.

I think we could see a few hybrid storms in or near the GOM, if we get anything early.
Babbit. The stuff finds its way here through the Orinoco Delta, all the way from Columbia. We are apparently a transhipment point in the long pipeline heading to you, and Europe.
Its private business, but the stakes are obviously very high.
The crime associated with it locally, along with fundamental errors on the part of successive Administrations has resulted in real dangers.
The weather here is very nice.
JFLORIDA, What about that big hotspot off of the coast of Africa? I believe when the hurricane season does roll around that's going to spawn some problems...
I understand your point, Sully, thanks!

A bit over five million does seem rather shod considering the serious extent of 2005. A good "awareness" program could suck up five million alone!
Is it not up to politicians to fund this research?

Darn right it is! I'm not complaining about the politics per se, though I might not agree with everyone's politics. LOL
It was a nice day here, too, Pottery! High 60's, no wind. No clouds.
mlc, the new budget is over $4 Billion.

They don't just throw money at it.

There are not that many offices in NOAA to throw that much money at. LOL

NOAA worked up their budget, this is the budget that NOAA asked for. For what they have going on right now

and for what they have planned.
CaneAddict 2:20 AM GMT on March 13, 2008

I am not that familiar with it, but I bet it could especially later.

It seems to be forming south and to the East of the area important to atlantic hurricane formation now. But it will be an issue in the southern hemisphere.

It just formed up over water?

If it continues it will undoubtedly alter the circulation patterns all over the African continent.
If you burn food for fuel, there is not as much food and the food that there is cost more. If you are a poor person in a third world country that no longer can afford food, you die. Ethanol subsidies kill people.

The United Nations warned yesterday that it no longer has enough money to keep global malnutrition at bay this year in the face of a dramatic upward surge in world commodity prices, which have created a "new face of hunger".

"We will have a problem in coming months," said Josette Sheeran, the head of the UN's World Food Programme (WFP). "We will have a significant gap if commodity prices remain this high, and we will need an extra half billion dollars just to meet existing assessed needs....
"

WFP officials say the extraordinary increases in the global price of basic foods were caused by a "perfect storm" of factors: a rise in demand for animal feed from increasingly prosperous populations in India and China, the use of more land and agricultural produce for biofuels, and climate change.

article

January 2, 2008
Orangutan should become symbol of palm-oil opposition

Scientists estimate the use of palm oil biodiesel from plantations established on peat soils releases 8 to 21 times the carbon dioxide emissions as conventional diesel fuel.

Environmentalists say palm-oil production is driving deforestation across southeast Asia. Oil palm estates have expanded in Indonesia from 600,000 hectares in 1985 to more than 6 million hectares in 2007. In Sabah and Sarawak (Malaysian Borneo), the area of plantations has increased from 186,744 hectares in Sabah and Sarawak in 1984 to 1,673,721 hectares at the close of 2003.

Link

Kyoto pact ignores CO2 emissions from biofuels
(12/5/2007) The Kyoto climate pact, as it currently stands, ignores millions of tons of carbon dioxide emissions from the drainage of peatsoils for palm oil production in Indonesia and Malaysia, warnned Wetlands International, an international NGO, in a report released at the UN climate meeting in Bali.
Boy JFL looks like the left hand at the UN doesn't know what the right hand is doing. Biofuels are going to kill far more people than global warming ever will. But I'll not sit here and argue it with you. Have a good night all.

JER
"the use of more land and agricultural produce for biofuels"

and the fact that farmers that used to grow wheat and other crops

Have converted to corn to make a lot more money.
Lat, thanks, and I'm aware of NOAA's total budget; but, imho, does seem like throwing pennies after dollars as far as increase is concerned. And, please, don't get me wrong, I'm against big government - I think we should cut spending and reduce taxes. I'd just like to see more good, solid research into improving our hurricane forecasting and preparedness.

Have a good sleep, Jer!

sebastianjer i don't know. I don't know if people using them have any other options if we, and the rest of the world don't help out in providing them energy, or at least access to energy, in some way.

People will jump at the chance to Bomb another country but dropping food or aid seems to cause a great deal of controversy.

It would be better for NOAA to be involved in advising on the correct implementation of Biofules as to not harm the environment especially and/or not increase hunger.

Biofuels do have upsides also, especially when combined with other technologies; more likely in sticky areas also, like genetic engineering.

We probably should not be buying these fuels from anyone whose country experiences hunger or extreme poverty. That would be unethical unless it was carefully executed by a method that would ease the suffering of affected peoples.

MSTL was talking about this and makes several good points.
mlc, there is the distinct chance that NOAA might have taken a lot of things off the table that just didn't work.

NOAA is not stupid, if they thought they needed and could justify $50 billion

they would have asked for it. ;-)
Lat, you're probably right!
112. pottery 8:18 PM EST on March 12, 2008
Lindenii, ok.
whats with the fragrans atavar, do you collect orchids??


That particular orchid is the "Ghost Orchid". The my online name 'lindenii' is part of the taxinomical name of that orchid.

The photograph was done by my son who has managed to find at least 50 of them growing here in Southwest Florida. Their locations are a closly guarded secret and only trusted individuals are taken to see them. He has a photograph on display at the Facahatchee Strand Ranger Station. It is one of the most haunting flowers that you can imagine and suprisingly the bloom lasts for almost two weeks.

Collect them? Nope, it's illegal and besides that, it is just this side of impossible to grow them in captivity.

Well, since we've all delved into the realm of politics...

What NOAA is asking for the ENTIRE YEAR is what is spent in Iraq in 2 weeks...

Those are the things that make you go hmmmmmm...
Sully-uhmmmm, lol
Jer,

LOL

Boy am I in for it now, huh?

Only if I had mentioned global warming in that post, too, right?

166. JFLORIDA 9:38 PM EST on March 12, 2008

It would be better for NOAA to be involved in advising on the correct implementation of Biofules as to not harm the environment especially and/or not increase hunger.

Biofuels do have upsides also, especially when combined with other technologies; more likely in sticky areas also, like genetic engineering.


***************

Since when did biofuel become a weather concern? With the world population growing leaps and bounds, it is silly to even consider biofuels as an alternative fuel source, much less have a weather organization be part of it.

Honestly? The best solution is...assuming that only in truthfully agreeing to implement the second part can the first part be allowed to occur.

Solution: Move immediately to nuclear power to reduce greenhouse emissions and at the same time, immediately begin research and developement of photo-voltaic energy systems. As the photo-voltaic systems are developed and deployed...world-wide...to rich and poor nations alike...begin the shutting down and dismantling of the nuclear plants.

Sunlight is our only dependable energy source that is in the equilibrium of the world environment. With enough photo-voltaic systems deployed world-wide, the random disruption of energy, by weather and such, will have little, if any effect, on the overall energy production.

Petroleum should, in the final analysis be used for specific purposes such as lubrication and other uses that can be developed which do not cause pollution as part of the fabrication.

Plant-life should, of necessity, be reserved for food production. Imagine 20 billions souls living on this planet if you need a quick jar of reality. Greenhouse goes away only when we stop generating it.
Perhaps a compromise would be better as Biofuels are hardly new and not likely to go away and we cant seems to even get ourselves off oil to any real degree of success yet.

Florida, to be sure, should be pioneering in photo-voltaic energy production. But for some reason it isn't happening and our legislature is obsessed more with the intricacies of toliet paper stocking.
Sully, now throw in a little religion and you'll have it all covered. lol

Although I'm very skeptical of AGW catastrophic affects lindenii, I pretty much agree with everything you say. Solar power imo, is the ultimate solution to most of our energy needs. Not only is the sun an infinite supply the other key ingredient is also nearly infinite, silica.

There are so many very positive and worthwhile alternatives that we ought to be promoting that this whole bio-fuel mess is idiotic. I am also a strong believer in tidal power another infinite yet untapped source of energy. Oh well, we'll get it right eventually if we don't freeze first :)

JER

Perhaps a compromise would be better as Biofuels are hardly new and not likely to go away and we cant seems to even get ourselves off oil to any real degree of success yet

JFL we aren't getting off oil in my or your or my little grandkids lifetime. But I fully agree we ought to be working harder and smarter towards it.

JER
Biofuels aren't going to solve anything in the LONG run. Its a trigger happy reaction to rising gas prices. Doesn't anyone realize that it takes MORE of an ethanol mixture to run the same mileage as gasoline? Not to mention the net destruction of forests and other natural areas to produce this biofuel will actually result in an INCREASE to emissions because there is less to absorb CO2? Im no tree hugging idiot but it still amazes me to this day that no one realizes that what goes out must go back in. Are there any concrete studies out there over the past decade or two that show how much deforestation has contributed to the overall increase of CO2 in the atmosphere?
73. Levi32 4:56 PM GMT on March 12, 2008 Hide this comment.
Here's a new feature on the CIMSS tropical page that's really going to be nice this season. This loop of precipitable water in the Indian Ocean over the past 72 hours shows Tropical Cyclones Jokwe and Kamba as clockwise spins west of Madagascar and along longitude 80w respectively. As Jokwe moves south you can see how it is starting to pull dry continental air off of the African continent into its circulation from the northwest. The spin of Kamba is easy to see along 80w throughout the loop and shows a classic example of dry air getting wrapped into the core and weakening the system, which is now fully dissipated as a result. These images are taken nearly every hour(and the latest image shown is only 2 hours old) which is very very nice, but as a result this 72 hour loop is 14MB, so be patient if you wish to view it.


Can't wait to use this during the upcoming season.
Fakahatchee Strand
"The Strand also contains the largest concentration and variety of orchids in North America."
By far, the most environmentally friendly means of energy production available now is electricity derived from COAL! If we trapped all the emissions from the power plants, (which we have the technology to do,) and sequestered it in old oil wells, (which we also are quite capable of doing,) we could power the world for centuries. The biggest advantage of this is that all the emissions would come out at the power plants, a single place where we could trap them most efficiently and affordably. Trapping 60% would take 10% of the energy, trapping 90% would take about 35% of the energy. We've proven that we can repair strip mines now that the law requires it, and control toxic runoff.

So why aren't we doing it?
The power plants don't want to spend all that money, and the politicians are either in the pockets of the energy companies, the farmers, or other alternative energy companies.

Eventually, the future of energy will be solar, but we can't run our world on that just yet. We CAN do it NOW with coal-electric. There is just no need for biofuels and the environmental damage they cause.
Biofuels put pressure on the food marked, but at least they are not digging up more sequestered carbon and spewing it into the air. If you are focusing on the carbon footprint, that shift is a great one. Solar to hydrogen is the best but we know many of the issues there.

Has anyone noticed that when we talk about bioterror and show examples of powdered anthrax, that it is only produced in the US in that concentraited form? Nobody else seems to have the effective dispersal methods we do. I'm worried that the bioterror prevention budget may be used for production.

Back to weather, I am already enjoying the accumulated rainfall graphics. They rock!

Hourly updated USGS stream gage data in Google Earth.
http://water.usgs.gov/waterwatch/?m=real&r=us&w=real%2Ckml
See my last blog for an image of what it looks like.
Until the last fifty gallons of petroleum can be speculated to fifty trillion dollars per gallon alternative energy sources, non-combusting ones, will not be pursued. That sounds a bit hyperbolic, but essentially the math is correct.
franck, that will probably happen faster than you think.

The speculators invested heavy in ethanol then had to drive the price of petroleum up to make a profit.

Remember when we were told that ethanol was not feasible because the price of petroleum was too low?

Now they are making a fortune on ethanol futures.
GOM 120 Hour Water Surface Temperature Forecast Link
Gulf Loop Current and Surface Temperatures Link
Wow StormW that one kinda come out of nowhere. The NE is in for a heck of a windstorm.

The NAM is developing more in the SE now too.
UNYSIS 10-day GFSx Link
Speaking of storms, looking at this reminds me of 1993; yesterday the NWS mentioned that the ECMWF dumped 7-8 inches of rain over the same period (that would be about a fifth of the annual rainfall here):

And on the Fifth day: Even the 12hr is looking a bit low


If that holds it will be impressive contour wise. Wonder why things pick up so fast, its been so dead lately.

G'morning
Hello Storm W...
Scheduled Broadcast for the Barometer Bob Show Link

The Barometer Bob Show for March 13, 2008!

Bobs guest will be Grant Goodge from the National Climatic Data Center. This is the 15th anniversary of the "Storm of the Century" of March 12-13 1993. We will discuss the storm, statistics, and what type of dangers storms can cause.
The show starts at 8pm/et and you can listen live at WRBN.Net

You can call into the show LIVE at
1-866-931-8437(U.S.A Toll Free) or 904-259-4229 World Wide (Tolls Apply)
With your host Barometer Bob Brookens from Hurricane Hollow Weather!


Also Join us in stormchat during the show..one can chat, ask questions and Posts links relevant to the discussion too. Link
NOAA Launches Final Two Buoys to Complete U.S. Tsunami Warning System Link
NOAA DART Buoy Locations Link

DART Buoy,explained..Link
SPC

Incoming.
Study Shows Ocean “Deserts” are Expanding Link
NOAA Budget Office (NBO) has the task of formulating, producing, and tracking the NOAA Budget each fiscal year. This webpage is designed to help educate and inform those individuals who wish to know more about the NOAA Budget Process. Link
Good morning,

Very nice synopsis of our proposed allotted Government funds.....Thanks Doc!


My proposal......ANYONE WHO LIVES WITHIN 100 MILES OF THE COAST.......From Brownsville, TX to Cape Hatteras, NC.....

Needs to have a Hurricane Plan.....NO excuses...Which means supplies and a generator and or plans to evacuate....Everyone, right now, this week, needs to evaluate themselves and their preparedness.....End of story! Or, move inland out of harms way!

I live in Florida, probably the most vulnerable state and I am ready to go! Are you?
Sure to be a factor in funding:

Federal budget deficit up more than 60%

The government projected that the budget deficit for all of fiscal 2008, which includes stimulus package spending, will total $410 billion, unchanged from last month's estimate, and near 2004's record high of $413 billion
.

Remember when we had a surplus? Its all like a dream.

We are only 5 months into the FY and already 260B in the hole!!!! We could have the WORLD RECORD DEFICIT this year! Esp after taxes.

I doubt any funding proposals will remain uncut in this atmosphere. No matter how valid they may be.
My proposal......ANYONE WHO LIVES WITHIN 100 MILES OF THE COAST.......From Brownsville, TX to Cape Hatteras, NC.....


How's about from Brownsville, TX to Newfoundland??

Everyone seems to forget that the Northeast and Atlantic Canada gets these things too.
TC Jokwe made a little comeback last night southwest of Madagascar, maintaining an eye feature and solid core of convection throughout most of the day, and earning back Cat. 1 status. However, this morning the environment has finally caught up with Jokwe. The core is now falling apart and cloud tops have been warming steadily. This is most likely due to the dry air being pulled into the core off the African continent and the island of Madagascar. The system is also fighting 20 knots of southwesterly wind shear, and SSTs underneath are barely 26c now due to upwelling caused by Jokwe's loopy movement in the same general area over the last 48 hours. Based on these factors Jokwe shouldn't be able to sustain an intensity above 50 knots much longer, and is expected to weaken to depression status and eventually dissipate within 24-48 hours.

I agree that the Northeast has the potential for hurricanes but the chances are a lot less.... Its been many years since a major hurricane has made landfall anywhere north of North Carolina.
The smoke and mirrors budget surpluses cooked up during the Clinton administrations by Treasury Sec. Rubin were based on out year projections of corporate expansion and tax revenues based thereon, ie. the Dow projected to be at 20,000 by beginning of fiscal year 2010.
LSU Earth Scan Lab Link
Still, we were not in deficit spending. Not like now, with no hope of getting out and nothing to show.
cchsweatherman - I was just checking out your site as well as your hurricane forecast.

Awesome site, and very well written forecasts, I like it.

-WSB
CCHS,

I guess I'll have to wait until tomorrow for your reasoning...

I issued my forecast for the 2008 hurricane season earlier this week.

Go here if you'd wish to read it.

interesting predictions cchs,after two fairly quiet seasons,you may be right,but as you stated,its still very early and a lot can change between now and the start of the season.
216. JFLORIDA 5:37 PM GMT on March 13, 2008
Radioactive Debris in Space Threatens Satellites in Use


Yeah, Id say thats something to write your Statesmen about. Things like this go unnoticed for too long and before its too late, we're in serious trouble.

Of course I mentioned before that govt. funds have to transpire as a profitable endeavor for corporate interests, so we just need to spin out the language for them to dig it...tell them that this would be a great feast for Haliburton...just think of that clean-up contract!!!

Thanks Florida, I'm gonna pass this one along to the masses! Way to keep vigilance and a watchful eye. and thanks for passing it on to us...
:o)

Ok its slow and im doing something I hate (Boring, Soul sucking photoshop) so thats good enough reason to post this:

The low point in the gulf is near the Corpus Cristi Buoy. Incidentally we should be seeing a distinct pressure drop and winds picking up here soon, as we eagerly await the arrival of the next non-hurricane.

Station 42020 - Corpus Christi, TX 50NM Southeast of Corpus Christi, TX

Wind Direction (WDIR): SE 130 deg true
Wind Speed (WSPD): 13.6 kts Wind Gust (GST): 15.5 kts
Wave Height (WVHT): 3.6 ft
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.85 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.02 in ( Falling )


Its really not all that impressive.
Space Debris Page/website Link
Blowing dust on the surface, Radioactive dust in Orbit.

I feel Dooomed.

Gulf sat

850 vort

things are about to pick up.
209. weatherboyfsu 4:27 PM GMT on March 13, 2008
I agree that the Northeast has the potential for hurricanes but the chances are a lot less.... Its been many years since a major hurricane has made landfall anywhere north of North Carolina.


Much of the VA, MD, DE, and NJ coasts hurt during the dirty side of Isabel (2003). If you look at the track for that storm, turning NW 24-36 hours earlier would have been very ugly for NYC.

Agreed, the chances are less, but in terms of climatology for expected years for a revisit they are overdue. I hope they pay attention. (Aw shucks, we never evacuated for a hurricane before, why start now? Garshk. Hey Donald and Mickey, lets go get a beer.) o3

Isabel was a little like Katrina in that she weakened before landfall, but brought a higher storm surge than the category would cause one to expect.
....SYNOPSIS....

GULF OF MEXICO/NORTHWEST ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 50W....

The upper level flow across the area has become southwesterly southeast of a sharp upper trough extending across the Rockies, Northern Mexico and into the Eastern Pacific. This flow is advecting upper level moisture which is producing scattered to broken mid-upper level clouds with embedded isolated showers over the Southern United States and the Gulf of Mexico west of 90W. In addition, surface observations indicated a low pressure area is centered over Arkansas near 35N/98.4W accompanied by a surface cold front. Additional cloudiness and showers can be expected ahead of this feature. Meanwhile, weak ridging is providing 5-10 knot southeasterly to southerly flow and fair weather clouds over the Gulf of Mexico with expected 2-5 ft swells over open waters.

Visible satellite imagery showed a dissipating frontal boundary extending from the island of Cuba and across the Bahamas. Another frontal boundary continues along 26N/70W 28N/60W 30N/50W. This front is accompanied by overcast cloudiness and numerous showers and thunderstorms as indicated by lightning data...north of 25N between 73W and 63W then within 60 nmi of the front further east. Fair weather return flow dominates elsewhere.

CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN REGION....

Broad mid-upper ridging and dry air remains the dominate weather pattern across the Basin. This is resulting in surface fair weather over most parts and high level cirrus clouds south 12N extending from Lower Central America to the Tropical Atlantic. A 1021 mb surface high pressure area centered over the Atlantic at 25N/52W will continue to generate light to moderate winds over much of the Basin. These winds will advect patches of low level cloudiness...some capable of producing scattered showers...mainly west of 20N/70W-14N/82W. Marine conditions should remain normal over the region with 3-4 ft seas everywhere increasing to 6-8 ft swells along the Colombian Coast/SW Caribbean Sea.

by W456
Yup looks like this setting up to be another nasty one.
Ethanol quotas weren't pushed by so called eco/GW conspiracy. It's one more set of the smoke and mirrors games to keep national discussion from going to the issue of becoming more efficient at energy consumption (conservation). Money not spent can't be taxed or transfered in a manner that adds to the big coffers or GNP.

Big Dirty Secret no one talks about is that increased biofuel production and to a lesser extent electricity is a cute little end run around coal emissions regulations.

If you scatter a bunch of "biofuel refineries" (stills) over the mid west and make sure you keep total emissions at each one below erg trip points you can burn a whopping bunch of dirty coal and laugh all the way to the bank.

I couldn't for the life of me figure why the folks pushing ethanol were the folks the guy Patrap calls "The Bonehead" [of state] hangs out with. The first penny dropped when I read a page 13 story in the business section of The Sunday Washington post about this "young entrepreneur" who has quietly been buying up disused rail rights of way from Coal Country to Nowhere Vills in the mid west. Said he was getting ready to hall back train loads of ethanol when production kicked in.

Then my younger brother had a couple of extra beers and started rifling on his "energy conspiracy" theories and pointed out that folks who have controlled energy have been at it forever "Big Oil" came out of same bunch who were "Big Coal". Guess who's still sitting on all the "mineral rights" to coal deposits in this Land of the Free and Home of the Brave? penny #2

Then another friend started crying about all the eco damage running gas lines to "ethanol refineries", not to mention all the cost and litigation involved in establishing right of ways and easements. Penny #3,

Now I'm not as swift as I once was. Those pennies don't add up to a nickel. People have been calling me paranoid for years. But to me if seems like somebody's up to something. I'm not about to call up Michael More to get filmmaking lessons. I haven't called that Grassy Knoll guys publisher or started taking Power Point lessons. But to quote Earny Doreman, an illiterate mountain man I worked with for a while when something started screwing up on the factory line, "It ain't right I tell you, something ain't;t right.. I can't read all them papers an put my finger on it exactly, but somethings going on and it just ain't right.."
How long to hurricane season?
I forgot to mention a few things regarding orchids and my son that directly relate to this blog.

Here is the curious part. Name an endangered orchid found in the Fakahatchee Strand and he can find it on his GPS. Show him a snail...a bug...a plant and he can give you its latin, taxinominal and common name.

For the past few years he has also branched out into the world of sea shells and has identified twenty new, previously unknown to the area of Sanibel Island and its beaches, species of sea shells and submitted them to the Shell Museum, where they authenticated his findings. Many of the collectors and researchers are beginning to embrace him and they marvel at his knowledge.

Guess what? He doesn't even have a high school diploma. In tenth grade, the school system was completely unable to help and even his teacher encouraged him to leave the unsupportive system of public education. Now, even the Phd Curator of the museum is marveling at his abilities and has set a course to encourage him to get his degree.

What does this all have to do with this blog. It serves as a demonstration that you never know where a jewel in the rough might be found. No doubt, there are geniuses following this blog and they are awaiting their chance to give us their new vision into what the weather is all about.

Like I mentioned earlier. Someday, one of those so called uneducated folk, will say something that completes a puzzle for somebody else on this blog. A puzzle that might even give us much needed new insight into the inner workings of weather. Much to the chagin of those who continually demand credentials and seem to want to minimize those uneducated folk.

Do we trivialize those folk because of their assumed lack of knowledge, or do we allow any and all of them to speak out and be heard, without ridicule or attacking them because they are on the other side of an issue near and dear to us?
What does does that have to do with anything?, formal education simply indicates motivation in an very specific area and via a specific methodology.



Again read the Blog.
Re 230:

In my 3 analog years no hurricanes or tropical systems made landfall along the East Coast of Florida. However, Irene came in from the south as a hurricane in October and Harvey hit the southern Gulf Coast as a sheared weakening tropical storm.

However, I wouldn't let that be a sigh of relief. As I'm sure you know, it is always wise to be prepared at all times...
atmoaggie.....you can now join lindelli on my ignore list. Hold hands now...
Well sully...in 1999 Floyd would've been a historic hit if it had gone 90 miles further west. So to say those were all quiet years for Florida would be unintentionally deceptive.
Kris,

You are certainly right about that and I was going to mention that. But I figured the 'being prepared at all times' is appropriate.

Admin Notice: When using Dr. Masters' blog, please refrain from posting material not relevant to the discussion of tropical weather, or the topic of the blog entry itself. Please do not engage in personal attacks or bickering. Material not conforming to these standards should be flagged with the button and ignored.
That's true Sullivan...unforunately, it's usually ignored. Don't know if you've ever gone through hurricanes on the ground zero...but it basically takes the local met having a stroke live on TV he's so excited to get people to realize it's a real threat. At which point everyone rushes to the nearest Home Depot. I swear, we had to wait over an hour here to get to the top of the line to get 5 sheets of plywood(they were rationing it), only to learn they'd sold out 10 minutes earlier.
249. weatherboykris 11:30 PM GMT on March 13, 2008
atmoaggie.....you can now join lindelli on my ignore list. Hold hands now...


For what, exactly? My rant wasn't about you. You haven't posted the drivel I was referring to. We don't necessarily see eye to eye, but you haven't been rude. Oh well, you probably aren't reading this anyway. C'est la vie.

Unlessssss...you have more than one username?
I was in North Carolina for Dennis in 1999. Got to hang out with Cantore for a couple days before he moved inland and I evac'd for home. We got some tropical storm force winds then the storm turned and headed back out to sea for its crazy assortment of twists and loops before heading back in as a much weaker system.

Of course, Floyd came about a week later, but you wouldn't catch me going back down for that one. I-40 got flooded pretty bad, so if I had gone back down I wouldn't have made it back for awhile.
I made the following page specifically with you guys in mind. Let me know what you think!

This is best for you wobble-watchers. We get new GOES data every 15 minutes for the gulf region. If you look at comparable NOAA animations the data is only every 30 minutes (right?).

Infrared imagery:
http://www.esl.lsu.edu/animate/goes.php?region=gulf&channel=ir

Water vapor imagery:
http://www.esl.lsu.edu/animate/goes.php?region=gulf&channel=wv

Low cloud product:
http://www.esl.lsu.edu/animate/goes.php?region=gulf&channel=lc

I'll make it easier to switch between channels soon, but notice the "channel=ir" and "channel=wv" parts of those links. They do just what you'd expect :)

All the individual frames of the animations can be viewed here:
http://www.esl.lsu.edu/animate/list.php
Hurricanman....nice!
Scheduled Broadcast for the Barometer Bob Show Link

The Barometer Bob Show for March 13, 2008!

Bobs guest will be Grant Goodge from the National Climatic Data Center. This is the 15th anniversary of the "Storm of the Century" of March 12-13 1993. We will discuss the storm, statistics, and what type of dangers storms can cause.
The show starts at 8pm/et and you can listen live at WRBN.Net

You can call into the show LIVE at
1-866-931-8437(U.S.A Toll Free) or 904-259-4229 World Wide (Tolls Apply)
With your host Barometer Bob Brookens from Hurricane Hollow Weather!


Also Join us in stormchat during the show..one can chat, ask questions and Posts links relevant to the discussion too. Link
yea I like those images. I couldn't find the up to date ones earlier, thanks.
That's true Sullivan...unforunately, it's usually ignored. Don't know if you've ever gone through hurricanes on the ground zero...but it basically takes the local met having a stroke live on TV he's so excited to get people to realize it's a real threat. At which point everyone rushes to the nearest Home Depot. I swear, we had to wait over an hour here to get to the top of the line to get 5 sheets of plywood(they were rationing it), only to learn they'd sold out 10 minutes earlier.

I boarded up a lot when I lived on the MS Gulf Coast. Pulling the trigger on a hurricane plan is a big decision. You know what to do but starting the process is another matter. Not only that, but what you do affects your neighbors as well. Every time I started the boarding up process, cars would slow down and look thoughtfully. If there was a couple in the car, there was usually argument. And buying plywood when a hurricane was in the Gulf was just asking for dirty looks.

And boarding up is hard. I had a two story house with windows whose screens jutted out from the frame about 1/4". This meant that I couldn't just slap a piece of plywood up against the window. I had to install rails on each shutter so that the shutter would envelop the entire screen. For Ivan I was still adding the last few shutters as tropical storm force winds were starting to gust. And I started a day and a half earlier.

Then you have to see about evacuating, if you decide to or are ordered to. Find a hotel or some family or friends. If a shelter is your only option, what about pets? What are they going to do?

A hurricane plan is a necessary component of life on the coast. But with all that entails, I can see where it would take a weatherman having a stroke on live TV to get people moving.
If you have trouble with the player click to the Right of the player you want to use. that works by launching a earlier version of WMP, I think my player is misconfigured but I do a lot of stuff to this system.

FYI I cant get it to run in ubuntu linux yet

this is about the B Bob show BTW.
Are we going back to what drove me almost to the leave this blog for good last year???Remember we are all here to learn from each other through difficult times wheather its weather related or what ever it maybe come on folks dont start this again.Hopefully come tropical season the real posters that have been on WU for years will come out cause its those folks i truly enjoy blogging with.There is not need to be rude or disrespectful towards anyone on jeff masters blog.There's just NO room for that here. Adrian
262. jimmiek 7:05 PM EST on March 13, 2008

I boarded up a lot when I lived on the MS Gulf Coast. Pulling the trigger on a hurricane plan is a big decision. You know what to do but starting the process is another matter. Not only that, but what you do affects your neighbors as well. Every time I started the boarding up process, cars would slow down and look thoughtfully. If there was a couple in the car, there was usually argument. And buying plywood when a hurricane was in the Gulf was just asking for dirty looks.

And boarding up is hard. I had a two story house with windows whose screens jutted out from the frame about 1/4". This meant that I couldn't just slap a piece of plywood up against the window. I had to install rails on each shutter so that the shutter would envelop the entire screen. For Ivan I was still adding the last few shutters as tropical storm force winds were starting to gust. And I started a day and a half earlier.

Then you have to see about evacuating, if you decide to or are ordered to. Find a hotel or some family or friends. If a shelter is your only option, what about pets? What are they going to do?

A hurricane plan is a necessary component of life on the coast. But with all that entails, I can see where it would take a weatherman having a stroke on live TV to get people moving.

****************

Here in Naples, the code now requires the builder to include all the window protection as part of the home. Makes you feel kind of strange when you see all that stuff in the garage and realize that you will likely have to use it someday. Yet it also makes you feel all warm and fuzzy cause you know that you will be protected when the time comes.

It also helps to know that your windows are rated to 135 mph+ and that the garage doors are rated to 155 mph+ as well. Shoot, even my shed out back is rated and certified to 165 mph+. I even thought of sticking it out in a really bad storm in the shed. Wilma only hit about 105 at our house and the house just shuddered and the trees bent double. We were standing outside under our deck a couple of times when the gusts got real bad and forced us back into the house.

Worst part was being without electricity for almost three days...sure was glad to not have to hear that awful generator going out back.
I will try to be nicer and clearer in what I say. I corrected my mis posts.
jimmiek

Holy cow!!!

I just took a look at your photo gallery and all I can say is OMG. I am reminded of something I always say to myself when things are bad. "I felt sorry for myself because I had no shoes, until I met someone with no feet.'

I felt sorry for myself before and after Wilma; looking at your pictures, I now know that I should just forget about it because you had it much much worse.

How did things works out? Did you all have to leave town and if so where did you go to live. Did you get any assistance from local agencies or was it a got it alone sort of deal?
245. lindenii

I have taken you off ignore since I cannot get away from your posts impact on the blog. I challenge you to refrain from causing the strife you did at the end of the last season. This is a site that is relied upon by folks making serious decisions during the "season". It behooves us all to check our egos and pet theories at the door. For my part I pledge to do my best.
Very cool H-man!
Well done Shen. And well said.

I'm in.
Hurricanman - post 257 - brilliant!
Kinda off topic....With all TV signals going hi-def next February...all of our portable TV's will be of no use during the 2009 Hurricane Season. Searching online, I have found DVD-Hi-Def combos...Does anyone know if they are making just HI-Def portables at this time?
How did things works out? Did you all have to leave town and if so where did you go to live. Did you get any assistance from local agencies or was it a got it alone sort of deal?


Our house was flooded but still standing. We repaired the house to the extent possible, then sold it and left. Though I'm not from the area, we'd been there 11 years. It was sad to go, but life is about moving on.

We are now in what is known as Aggieland, TX. Been here almost 2 years and like it a lot.
Aggieland, TX

Is that not College Station?
Shen,

I concurr.

I likewise remove you from the ignore list and I agree to your pledge as well.
Pat, SPC expects us to hear thunder tonight. Maybe I'll put the WX radio on standby.

hurrican23 I am here, LOL, just didn't want to jump into the pool today - the boys are making waves LOL. Now I'm off G'night
Is that not College Station?


Yep, Bryan/College Station. I'm in Bryan, just north of University Drive. Not five min from the office, which has a lovely view of the Fatburger on University... :)
244. NorthxCakalaky 7:04 PM AST on March 13, 2008
How long to hurricane season?


Countdown To Hurricane Season 08

11 Weeks or 79 days
Could be a rumbler or two,as they show.
With all TV signals going hi-def next February

I thought they were just going digital. And I thought all new TVs (in the last few years were required to be able to handle it.
pledges...lets get jfv to pledge not to end his sentences with a ? or a !.
Yep, Bryan/College Station. I'm in Bryan, just north of University Drive. Not five min from the office, which has a lovely view of the Fatburger on University... :)

NOOOO! I want a fatburger! Not a pretty place, but ~$2.50 for a 1/3 lb fresh burger that you dress yourself (aka Fuddruckers) cannot be beat. You're killin me! (A tip: bury your burger in Cholula...if you like it spicy)

I too lived in Bryan for 3.5 years. I honestly miss it. That area just north of university is the exact center of civilization there. Wonderful for gas mileage...2 miles in any direction and you were in the cow pastures.

jimmiek, here's the funny. You went there from Bay St L, I now live near Slidell and work at Stennis.
I am sorry..I meant to say Digital...they had a report on our local news that the portables we have now will not pick up the signals.
I was wrong about when the analog TVs could still be sold. The rule is that any TV imported or built domestically after March 1 of this year accept digital signals.

You might want to the converter box, for which you can get a free coupon: Link

If that box has to be plugged in and you were hoping to use a battery powered TV during the season, you might need another plan.

Just found the answer, alas:
"Portable, battery-powered analog TVs may be able to receive over-the-air programming after February 17, 2009 if they have the necessary plugs to allow them to be connected to a digital-to-analog converter box. Because it is not anticipated that battery powered digital-to-analog converter boxes will be produced, an external power source would also be required."
jimmiek, here's the funny. You went there from Bay St L, I now live near Slidell and work at Stennis

It gets funnier - I used to work at Stennis (NRL).

There are some things I miss about Stennis, but I don't miss that cafeteria in 1100 :)
Re Digital portables. I'm betting prices will really go down the closer to the change over due to economies of scale. Think that all the hype is to get folks to by now,
It gets funnier - I used to work at Stennis (NRL).

There are some things I miss about Stennis, but I don't miss that cafeteria in 1100 :)


OK, weird. I work in 1103, private company, WorldWinds. We did some work in the past for NRL, such as operational COAMPS, which we still run.

We also run ADCIRC constantly.

Amen about the crapeteria, I NEVER eat in 1100, outside of getting a sandwich at the blind-man stand. Thankfully, I also get to work in our Gause Blvd office 2 days a week. Lunch options abound.

Also, I use the NRL oceanographic library at least once a month.

What are you doing in Aggieland, anyway?
A political ? (Ut Oh) If a Democrat gets elected, can their FEMA Director review all of rejected claims from Katrina, Wilma, etc.? I really got screwed from Wilma while folks down south received benefits for minor, minor damgage. My roof was taken off and I lived in a hotel for four months and received $1,000.
For the discussions about the December Bill Gray forecasts see: Link (go down about 2 pages)
The skinny version: This is entirely a statistical forecast, as is the June one. Somewhat like CLIPER, only considers what similar conditions led to in the past. Dynamical forecasts apparently are more of the equation for the August forecast.
I aint touchen that GeoffreyWPB!!! That sure doesn't seem like much. Couldn't you appeal?
Bill Grey is a nut case...Well wait, I may change my mind in 3 months...then may change it again in 6 months....then may change it again in 9 months....etc.
I did appeal...and was refused..with no explantion...to this day, i have no idea why...they will not tell me.
Did that company do the claim?

I cant believe they wouldn't give you a reason. That is very odd.
It was my fault I did not have additional Home Owners Insurance that covered living somewhere else. For sure I have that now and I encourage everyone to have that.
To this day..no reason...and I last asked in Janurary.
Home Owners Insurance that covered living somewhere else

Wow didn't know you needed that too!!!

thanks
It is not that expensive and trust me...well worth it!
On your policy it is called LOSS OF USE


Strong storms making their way into southeastern Louisiana right now. Probably won't be severe inland, though. These storms will probably mainly produce large hail.
294. GeoffreyWPB 1:39 AM GMT on March 14, 2008
Bill Grey is a nut case...


He is a bit of a kook, but the vagarities of the statistical forecasts probably have a lot more to do with the variability in the cycle timing and amplitudes of the QBO, AMO, PDO, etc.
What are you doing in Aggieland, anyway?

I'm on the faculty. I'll put a web link in your mailbox.
... A Tornado Warning remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
southwestern Pushmataha County...

At 920 PM CDT... Weather Service radar continued to indicate a
potentially tornadic thunderstorm with strong low level rotation.
This storm was located near Moyers... moving east at 15 mph. This is a
dangerous storm... a tornado is occurring or could form at any time.

Some locations near the path of this storm include... Moyers...
Kellond... Kosoma... Antlers... snow... Finley... Rattan and Dela.

Nighttime tornadoes are especially dangerous - take cover now! If you
wait until you see or hear it coming... it may be too late to get to a
safe place!

Lat... Lon 3418 9564 3417 9568 3418 9577 3439 9576
3440 9539 3417 9537 3416 9543 3417 9563
time... Mot... loc 0222z 284deg 13kt 3429 9571
A tornado has been confirmed with the aforementioned storm:

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1040 PM CDT THU MAR 13 2008

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CDT FOR SOUTHERN
PUSHMATAHA AND NORTHEASTERN CHOCTAW COUNTIES...

AT 1036 PM CDT...WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR AND STORM SPOTTERS
CONTINUED TO TRACK A VERY DANGEROUS TORNADO. THIS TORNADIC STORM
WAS LOCATED NEAR CLOUDY...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH. A TORNADO HAS BEEN
CONFIRMED
6 MILES NORTHEAST OF RATTAN...TAKE COVER NOW!

SOME LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...CORINNE...
CLOUDY...SOBOL AND SWINK.

A TORNADO IS ON THE GROUND! IF YOU ARE NEAR THE PATH OF THIS
TORNADO...TAKE COVER NOW!
Not a single entry since last evening ???
Have you all beamed up, without me ??
Good morning all! Sorry to all, but I will not be publishing the report that will explain the predictions I have posted on my site for the upcoming hurricane season today. I have come down with a cold this morning. I'll be around from time to time today.
Trinidad weather now;
79 f
78% humidity
Visibility 6.2 miles
1015 rising
8;55 am
Some haze, or dust, in the air is affecting the weather locally now, but I am not convinced that it is Sahara dust, I will look at the links.....
Morning CCHS, I was looking forward to your explanations. Feel well soon .
after a long lay off i am back. looking foreward to the april hurricane forecast by Gray et al
The Sahara Air Layer analysis does not show sahara dust here, which is what I thought
The material floating about is most likely haze or smoke.
The jetstream is still strong over here, and blowing from south/west to north/east. It has been doing so for several weeks.
I wonder how long it will continue.

The local Mets didnt think we would get much more than a shower in Tampa, has that changed...good morning everyone. Radar looks alot stronger than a shower.
312 post correction--------
the wind shear here has in fact changed direction over the past couple of days, and is now 20 knots from n/w to s/e