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Beta on its way to hurricane status

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:46 PM GMT on October 27, 2005

The Hurricane Season of 2005 remains unrelenting. Tropical Storm Beta formed this morning over the warm ocean waters of the southwest Caribbean, just north of Panama. Given the ideal environment for intensification setting up in the southwest Caribbean, this is likely to become Hurricane Beta by tonight, and could grow to major hurricane status before making landfall in Nicaragua on Sunday.

Recent satellite imagery shows a small but rapidly developing system. There is plenty of growing deep convection, good low-level spiral banding, and a Central Dense Overcast (CDO) forming over the center. An eyewall appears to be forming under the CDO, and there is a good chance we'll be talking about Hurricane Beta by this evening. The first hurricane hunter flight is scheduled for Friday afternoon.

Beta is stuck in an area of weak steering currents, and is being slowly pulled northwards by the trough of low pressure that swept Wilma over Florida. All the computer models except the Canadian model forecast that this trough will pull northwards and strand Beta in the southwest Caribbean. A weak ridge of high pressure will then build in and force Beta westward, with a landfall expected in northeastern Nicaragua. With water temperatures 29 - 30C, very light wind shear less than 5 knots, the chances of Beta growing to major hurricane status appear good. Intensification beyond Category 3 status is questionable, since Beta is travelling over relatively shallow water with lower heat content than Wilma had to work with. Additionally, Beta's slow forward speed may cause some upwelling of cold water from the depths that will interfere with the intensification process.

Beta's expected landfall in Central America is likely to be a major disaster. Although a small storm, Beta will bring 10-20 inches of rain over the interior mountainous regions of Nicaragua and Honduras, creating a serious flooding situation. The GFDL model indicates that Beta will survive the crossing of Nicaragua and emerge into the Pacific Ocean, where it will re-intensify into a Category 1 hurricane. The projected path takes the storm northwest along the coast of El Salvador, potentially adding to the destruction caused by Hurricane Stan earlier this month, which killed 69. Beta may also continue on to affect Guatemala, which suffered the cruelest blow of any nation this destructive hurricane season; between 1500 and 2000 Guatemalans died in floods and mudslides spawned by Hurricane Stan. The threat to El Salvador and Guatemala remains highly speculative at this point, since we are talking about events a week or more in the future.

There are no provisions for what to do in the event we have to retire Beta's name and replace it on the list of hurricane names. One possibility is that the storm will be dubbed Beta-2005 and the name Beta will be reused. Another possibilty is that Beta will be skipped over next time the Greek alphabet comes into use.


Figure 1. Current sea surface temperatures show the warmest waters in the North Atlantic are in the region just north of Panama where Beta formed.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The strong tropical wave spreading heavy rains through the Lesser Antilles remains disorganized today. The amount of deep convection has increased some since yesterday, but remains spread out along a long line. A weak circulation center has developed along the south edge of this line, near 12N 60W (the island of Barbados). Wind shear over the wave has decreased to 5 - 10 knots today, and is forecast to decrease further the next few days as the wave pushes into the central Caribbean. Development of a new tropical depression could occur as early as Saturday with this system. Any storm developing from this wave would likely be a threat to Nicaragua, Honduras, Belize, or Mexico later next week.

Another tropical wave, midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles, remains poorly organized as it moves westward at 15 mph. While a circulation center has developed near 9N 40W, upper level winds are currently unfavorable for development of this system.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

I can't believe how active the tropics are. It's just like the "energizer bunny", it keeps going and going and going. When will the meadness end!!!!!!!
LOL Coastie - You are right about that!!!
can't believe I accidently got onto a new post early.
21, I don't recall clouds being in our forcast this week. At least we haven't gotten any rain yet and there's a chance for some warming up this weekend. At least to mid-70's. If can can call that warm. Pull out the "long johns".
Coastie - I know, I was listening to the news on the way to work this a.m. and David Glenn for (NBC15) said Sunny today! Channel 3 weather also said nothing about it.. hmmmm...
TS Beta? I knew something was up when I woke up this morning and saw pigs flying over Naples.

Maybe Dr. Masters knows if the forecast for Hades includes a major blizzard....
I like this weather.. I can pull out the winter clothes that I never get to wear! But I really miss the beach..
Gamma - I can't believe I got here first... I NEVER do, lol...
I must have a bug...are you getting this? If so HI :-)
I can see your posts, stormy. Hi!
I can see ya Dee..
Anyway, it is sooooo slowwww here at work today... I have nothing to do.. errrr
It seems amazing how quickly the forecast changed from Beta just being a TS to possibly being a major hurricane. Shades of Wilma?
Current Conditions in my hood:

Temp 44
Windchill 41
Overcast

Forecast

Rest of Today
Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of rain showers. Highs near 45. Northwest winds 5 to 15 mph...becoming west.

Tonight
Rain and snow showers likely. Little or no snow accumulation. Lows in the mid 30s. West winds 5 to 15 mph...becoming northwest 10 mph or less. Chance of precipitation 60 percent.
i know it is off topic, but scribblin your journal of Wilma was amazing, I am from Minnesota and it is exciting to read the first hand experience. I mean all we get up here is tornadoes and 30 below weather. Thanks!
Scribblin - Seems that way.
Boogerman - Where is the journal?
Orion, I'll take our current weather here in Pensacola any day over what you have. Keep warm.
oh man I think i read it two days ago, it was right after the storm had traveled over FL. I will search for it, maybe scribblin will find it faster than I can.
i found it

POSTED BY SCRIBBLIN


Here is the log I kept during Wilma. I am located in NE Naples, 30 miles north of landfall.

8:54 pm GMT 10.23.05
I've been watching cloud development over NE Naples this afternoon while putting up plywood. We've got quite a
smorgasboard: cirrus, cumulus, cumulonimbus, and then altostratus clouds moved in sometime around 4pm EST. It's now almost 5pm EST and stratocumulus clouds are working their way in out of the SW. Winds are 6 mph ESE with gusts now to 17 mph, pressure 29.6, 87 degrees. Still a pretty day, overall. For now.

9:07 pm GMT 10.23.05
Max Mayfield just did a broadcast in which he said that Wilma is a strong Cat 2 hurricane that might well achieve
Cat 3 by landfall, and storm surge estimates have now been "bumped up" to 9-17 feet on the west coast, 2-4 on the east coast. Hurricane winds extend 70-85 miles, tropical storm force winds extend 230 miles. Wilma is moving at 14 mph and Mayfield says it will "take off like a rocket" just after landfall. Tornadic activity is expected in the right quadrant of Wilma in south Florida, possibly in central Florida as well. Rain just began falling on Marco Island; an outer band is sweeping across.

10:04 pm GMT 10.23.05
Winds in Naples are 14 mph SE with gusts to 29 mph. Pressure is still 29.6, temp is 86. Skies have gone gray with some cumulus clouds lightly visible. Local news is showing video of a large water spout off Key West. Collier County is under a curfew (10pm - 6am).

11:35 pm GMT 10.23.05
NE Naples...winds are 11 mph ESE with gusts to 21 mph, and it's 81 degrees. Pressure is 29.5. Ominously quiet...the
birds are gone.

11:46 pm GMT 10.23.05
A mandatory evacuation has been ordered for the barrier islands off Ft. Myers (Lee County) and for about half of
Cape Coral. A sheriff's deputy told me that Marco Island police officers are being required to stay on the island.
Hopefully they will be stationed near flotation devices....

11:52 pm GMT 10.23.05
Local forecasters are calling for a landfall in or just south of Naples. Surge predictions are 10' in Naples and as much as 17' just past Marco Island, in the Ten Thousand Islands area.

11:56 pm GMT 10.23.05
Local forecast on Wilma from ABC/NBC simulcast...pressure is 28.29 (958 mb), moving 15 mph NE, max winds 110 mph.
Possible 5-10 mph increase, but Wilma is entering a potentially more hostile environment. Eye is 220 miles from Marco Island.

12:45 am GMT 10.24.05
Local forecasters are showing the new GFDL on TV...showing a bullseye landfall around 8am EST on Everglades City,
just south of Marco Island, with 108 knot winds, pressure 950 mb. Northern eye wall will go through Naples, Bonita
Springs, etc. Current location is 198 miles from landfall. Still a big tornado threat in the area, too.

8:55 am GMT 10.24.05
Nearby weather station has 29 mph winds NE with gusts above 60, but that seems awfully conservative. Wind is
whistling through my lanai here. Local forecasters say the eye is about 14 miles off Marco Island...winds there are
around 100 mph sustained with gusts to 125 mph. Marco is 30 miles south of my position.

9:05 am GMT 10.24.05
Electrical substations are knocket out near Marco and just north of me in Immokalee.

9:43 am GMT 10.24.05
Local forecasters are showing a satellite graphic of tornadic rotation in the NW quadrant eyewall of Wilma as it approaches Naples. Rotation is still out over the water.

10:58 am GMT 10.24.05
Eye of the storm is over Marco. Here, for about half an hour, the storm subsided quite a bit - more like a
manageable thunderstorm, minus the thunder - and now it has picked back up strongly in the last few minutes. Power
has been out for 1:09. Big gusts again, and now the wind is striking from the north, blowing rain around/through
closed and boarded window in master bedroom. Wind is now also blowing rain around/through sliding doors leading to
the lanai. West lanai screen door, which was locked shut, has been pulled open and is being held straight out by the
wind. (I'm not going out there!) Lost phone service sometime during the power outage - still had it when the power first went off. Local reporters are broadcasting debris in the streets, downtown Naples. Wind is now gusting much stronger than at any point before; rows of shingles are flapping on the roof. Rain is coming down in great sheets.

11:52 am GMT 10.24.05
Back side of storm is FAR more strong. Lost some roofing - shingles are visible in the front yard. Bleak gray light
filtering through the storm. Lost the young 15' mango tree in the backyard. Local reporters broadcasting 40-50' seas
offshore. Storm surge seems to be building on this back side. Sea wall in Marco has been topped, portions of SR 951 are flooded. Looking out the back of the house, some gusts are so powerful they actually obscure vision. Wind is whipping wildly from multiple angles out of the north.

1:24 pm GMT 10.24.05
The storm intensified, and weathermen are reporting gusts of 110+ in LaBelle, about 30 or more miles north of here.
I estimate, totally unofficially, gusts of 120+ here in Naples. I'm losing quite a bit of roofing; it's flapping in the gusts and sounding like a herd of cattle up there. The house is shuddering; that never happened during Charley. The wind tore off my west lanai door and sent it like a missile - before my very eyes - horizontally across the lanai and into the other door, damaging it. I had to run out and put it up against the house, frequently squatting down to avoid getting blown around. We had flash flooding, about 2" in the back yard and more in the front (storm drain flooded), but the rain has now stopped and the wind has quickly evaporated the water. Other houses are losing roofing - it is raining roofing tiles. Neighbor on the west had his trampoline, which was strapped to his chainlink fence, twisted over the fence and slammed on the ground upside down on the other side. Neighbor on the east has lost several pool cage screens and now one or more of the struts. Top of huge pine across the street snapped off, SE. Whitecaps and 2' chop visible in pond behind houses across the street. Wind suction moved my inside attic door a foot, opening the hole. Tree debris is flying around. News reports indicate water in downtown Naples as far inland as the Irish pub (knee deep); water in Everglades City is topping street signs; no water level reports yet from Marco. Has to be ugly there. Still getting straight-line winds from the west. News reports indicate approx. 340,000 people in the Naples/Ft. Myers area without power - that would be (roughly) everybody.

3:21 pm GMT 10.24.05
The winds are dying down enough that we can almost go outside. Shingles are visible everywhere. Almost lost the big oak (?) out front - roots are visible on the house side. Across the street, houses lost roofing and trees - three houses have trees smashed into their roof. Across the street, SE, lost every tree in the yard. Next door, E, lost the west side of their pool cage, struts and all. Wind wadded them up like tin foil and dumped them in the pool. Big damage to homes across the pond, on the north side. Homes across the street, S, have damage on both sides of their homes - no protection from the wind. People are coming out and walking up and down the street to check with each other; everybody is okay. What a storm!

7:07 pm GMT 10.24.05
Children are playing outside now, families are walking the neighborhood taking pictures and talking with neighbors.
Skies are gray and lighter, though they look worn out - like they've given it everything they've got. It is quite
windy, and there are gusts which must be in the upper 20s or higher from time to time. It is approx. 70 degrees -
very comfortable. That's a 20-degree drop in less than a day. We've opened up the house, which is much warmer inside than out. We're going to begin cleanup. There is no power, no phone, no cellular service. But there is city water, and we are fine.

10:34 pm GMT 10.24.05
Power is finally back on. Phone service is restored. It is fair and breezy, temperate. A wonderful evening, if you
don't mind the destruction.
coastie24 ,

Remenber I am in upstate NY. Jack Frost usually shows up with a pair of combat boots to jump on us.. this is just the slope before the long fall into the chasm of a northern winter.. and I have a bad feeling its going to be cold and harsh up here this winter.
I was just south of Naples during the landfall at a home depot......does scribblin know where that is........on hwy 41.....
Thanks boogerman. Yeah, it rattled me pretty good. But we're okay. Have to get a new roof, though.
I know where the Home Depot is on Pine Ridge, and the Expo down on...maybe Davis.... Not sure where the one south of town is. I'm in Orange Tree, off Oil Well near Palmetto Ridge High School. The school was a special needs shelter during the storm. As of yesterday, there were still 50 or more cars out front.
Thanks Booger
I was just SW of Marco Island.......we got hammered.....I got as much of it filmed as possible, not alot of light to see......
Orion,

I originally from northern Michigan, so I completely understand about "old man winter".

Scribblin, Excellent account of the storm. I'm glad you came through it ok.
Thanks, coastie. Time to do more cleanup. See you guys later.
GREAT journal Scribblin!!
coastie24,

OIC, so which is better cold harsh winters or hurricanes?
hurricanes....
Orion,

This is my first hurricane season here, as I moved from Oklahoma to Pensacola in January. I go from tornado's to hurricane and yes I was in Oklahoma for the May 99 F5 tornado. The thing took out half of my sub-division, luckily, I lived on the southern end and only received minor damage. So, to answer your question, I don't know yet. I'll give it some time.
Sometimes we don't get hit, lol...
21, We have been in the bulls-eye quite often though.
37. dcw
This thing is gonna be Wilma's clone...thats a tiny eyewall.
Yeah I know...

I can take hurricanes, but I couldn't take a tornado... No Wat
I don't know what to think about this storm. It seems that it could 'only' peak at category 3 logically, but that was also the case with Katrina, Rita, and especially Wilma. I honestly wouldn't be suprised if this thing just went category 5 monster on us.
Not even the NHC has mentioned the blob south of Hispaniola. If that high pressure builds in and forces Beta to make landfall in Nicaragua, it'll force the other disturbance to follow slightly and on a general Wilma-type path. It looks like the cold front associated with the low that affected Wilma is filling, but there's another cold front coming off of the coast of Texas. Looks like Beta's forming an eye...
I think it's a good chance this will become the 6th retired name this year. We already have five and that's a record alone! Also, with Beta becoming the 13th hurricane, that will break the old record of 12 hurricanes in one season. And another thing, it looks like we'll soon have a storm named after Gamma, at least sometime here!
Would you rather lose power when it's 85 degrees, or lose power when its 30? I guess they both suck in their own way, but when you can't heat the house and can't run your electric stove/oven, it gets real cold.
coastie24,

OIC, I grew up in North Carolina. Been thur a couple of F1 tornadoes (actually one of them came over our trailer). Been thur a couple of hurricanes (actually was on the coast having a party during a Cat2, something I don't ever want to do again no matter how much achool I have in me)
Beta, Beta These things always happen when I'm sleeping.
Just say NO to carribean blobs!
I had to check out the canadian model since it's not forcasting the same & no one posted, that I saw, what it did. It seems to sit & grow for 72 hrs, mostly cause it is forcasted to eat the blob behind it! Link ~ don't forget to scroll right & hit forward.

~also I posted some pics I took during Wilma on my blog~ Don't for get to give NOAA your 2 cents on privatization, we only have til Nov 2nd (link at top of blog). Hit my name above to get to blog & pics.
47. dcw
Sixth retired name? I count:

Dennis
Emily
Katrina
Rita
Stan (?)
Vince (due to uniqueness)
Wilma
>Beta
I like the idea of naming the storm Beta-2005 if it becomes neccessary to retire the name.

I've noticed in the past though my own observations of hurricanes (Ivan, Dennis, Katrina, Rita to name a few) and tropical storms that the current method of classifing these systems is inadequate.

Perhaps something similar to the following would be more informative.

Keep the current scale and wind speed thresholds the way they are and add this information.

Storm Surge Impact Number
Rain Impact Number
Wind Field Diamater

So say we have a hurricane with 120mph winds
This would be a Cat 3
Now it would be import to come up with a system to indicate
Storm Surge Severity 1 to 30 would seem good.

I'm not sure how to deal with Rain Impact as this would deal with the speed, motion and area where the storm would be traveling over - to name a few of the variables.

Wind Field, we all know a small strong hurricane is still a hurricane by all means (Dennis). But I believe it is important none the less to stress the Wind Field Size and Shape. And this could be easily done in Miles wide or what ever system is useful for the population getting the information.

So Say we have 120mph winds, which extend outwards 60miles and a projected storm surge of 17 feet in the area where land fall is expected.

The hurricate could then be classified as a

Catagory (3 + 60 + 17) / 20 (constant value subject to further research) = 4.0

So with these characteristics you can say yes its a Catagory 3 in strength but expect Catagory 4 brutality.

Just a few thoughts, I know there could be a more scientific way to produce these results but something does need to be done to make sure people are more informed.

-Jeff
ah, back, had to reboot then got super busy...I wish this busy-ness would spread evenly throughout the week instead of Mondays and Thursdays kill me while the rest of the week is usually slow.
Hello :-)
More thoughts.

As a tropical system gets closer to land and it becomes possible with reasonable certainty to pin point an area likely to be hit directly.

These areas should not only get a warning but the area should get a warning indicator number predicting the strength of the combined indicates I mentioned in the previous post.

For instance. Ivan hit well west of Pensacola, FL last year but snaped trees and did moderate damage to Tallahassee, Fl nearly 320 miles away.

Not to mention the increasing severity of damage the system did to Panama City, Destin, Fort Walton Beach, Crestview, Milton, Navarre Beach, and Pensacola.

-Jeff
dcw - I don't think they will retire Vince, they retire names based on deaths and costs.
In this crazy season I would not bet the farm on Beta heading westward into Nicaragua - what's to stop her from pushing further north?
I know what you mean Dee - I was just about to ask where you were...
snowboy, discussion said a ridge is gonna build in and push her west
Just in case you guys haven't noticed this yet, the past two hurricane season have had not only subtropical storms, but also tropical storm occur in the month of December! At the rate this season is going, it could be a possibility!

2003
Tropical Storm Odette: 12/04 - 12/07
Tropical Storm Peter: 12/09 - 12/11

2004:
Tropical Storm Otto: 11/30 - 12/02
work, work, work...if it wasn't for all of this work I could get some serious blogging done!
the ukmet has got beta goin n too, now. As well as eating a blob
snowboy - she won't push herself, something has to give her the shove and right now there's nothing to steer her anyway so she's just sittin' and spinnin'. Eventually they think a ridge will build that will make her skirt along to the west.
those ridges don't always build in as expected, so as said I wouldn't bet the farm on the expected CA landfall and dissipation. NHC already has her heading further north (and a day longer) than at 11 pm last night.
I wouldn't bet on anything at all this season. You'd think that after the third storm blew up overnight and went clean through the steering currents that they'd take that into account. Still though, until she's a cat 4 or so she can't make her own path. With the way this season is going though, I wouldn't be surprised to see her a cat 4 by morning just to spite the forecasters.
2 pm NHC discussion has her positioned further east and heading north. Excerpts:

TROPICAL STORM BETA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 3A...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM EDT THU OCT 27 2005

...CORRECT PRESSURE IN REPEAT SECTION...

...TROPICAL STORM BETA STRENGTHENING AND RE-LOCATED EASTWARD...NEW
WARNINGS AND WATCHES ISSUED...

AT 2 PM EDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BETA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.4 WEST OR ABOUT 70
MILES... 115 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN ANDRES ISLAND AND ABOUT
160 MILES... 260 KM...EAST OF BLUEFIELDS NICARAGUA.

BETA IS DRIFTING TOWARD THE NORTH. A SLOW NORTHWARD MOTION IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION COULD BRING THE
CENTER OF BETA NEAR SAN ANDRES ON FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH... 95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND
BETA COULD BECOME A HURRICANE LATE TONIGHT OR FRIDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES
... 95 KM FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.
re-located? did it get a better job offer?
LOL Elliston!
they will retire Vince due to uniqueness? have they done that before? :) that would be interesting. :)
Re-located eastward - more time to spend over the water and gain strength. This could be another Wilma with nobody knowing initially where it will go. It could also absorb that blob south of Hispanol/Haiti and we could name it "BAMMA". What a concept!!!! LOL.
Elliston...lol! as long as she doesn't put in any bids for employment in the US...especially MS or LA or FL or TX...which pretty much cuts us all out down here.
what will stop beta from pushing north? lots of things. for one, look how far dry cool air is intruding down into the southern US and gulf on the water vapor loop. that will keep beta at bay. plus the water temps are cool in the gulf and the wind shear is high, so if the storm somehow did make it further north, it would have a real hard time holding together.
69. dcw
:D Ellison.

She's hot stuff, she moved earlier this morning too :)
I think we should convince it that there's a nice little uninhabited island in the middle of the Atlantic that is just the most happening place to be right now.
Excerpt from 5 pm advisory:
REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...11.7 N... 81.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 3 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 997 MB.

RWD, cool water temps and shear were supposed to keep Wilma down... As for the cool dry air, things can change in a few days time esp. if Beta turns big. Right now she's 997 mb - predictions anyone on how low she goes?
I was just reading the 5:00 discussion on Beta, and I can't help but find it funny that the NHC uses the word "should" twice in their discussion. Just like Wilma, right now they don't have a clue
I agree with you snowboy...the temps here in central Fl are going to rebound to the low 80's by the end of the weekend
Hi, PT here,
this site will interest you all, its all
21 Named Storms From the 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season
in one movie
Link

It's great!
Riviera Beach, checkin in! We are back, power, cable, and phones!!! IT was the CRAZIEST THING YOU HAVE EVER SEEN when the back half of the storm came...the calm of the eye IS VERY misleading to the violence of the Backside eyewall!! Holy Cow... I have some awesome video that I would love to post with music actually in the background of the video and not dubber over, which seems to have been heard by Wilma because as the music got more intense so did she!

Simply Incredible!!
Just thought you guys would like to look at this.........


http://hurricane.methaz.org/hurapak/AAL262005_perf.htmlLink
They said the shear was going to weaken Wilma, but did it do? It only strengthened into a cat 3 storm right before landfall. I live In Ft Myers about 35 miles north of landfall.
5 pm NHC discussion has her up to 95 kts in 72 hours...
Why do I have a bad feeling Florida will be hit by another Hurricane before this season is over? Beta is moving north, doing its best Wilma impersonation. Models show a lot of action over the next week.

This chilly weather here in Florida may be a trick.

Babu from Tampa

PS: Is Beta a he or a she?
BibBabu, I think the Greek alphabet doesn't differentiate between male & female gender. I guess the term is "unisex". Alpha is just an "it" and not a he or she.
GAtor, sounds right to me. When is this chilly weather gonna let up here in Fl?
New Features for WunderBlogs
See WunderYakuza
83. dcw
The term is neuter. I'm not kidding.
84. OGal
Hi all, check out the comments on the full story of Beta on Accuweather.com. Seems like there may be alot of questions in the forecast. What do you think Dr. Jeff. What about the trough(sp) of low pressure coming across the US??
The sun came out for the fourth time this month. Still better than hurricanes and tornadoes. Wish it would calm down so I can catch a few bugs (lobsters).
BibBabu, I think the Greek alphabet doesn't differentiate between male & female gender.

How about this from several baby names websites:
Beta

dedicated to god
Origin: Czech
Gender: Girl
*************
Beta in Hebrew = Beth
*************
Greek
Gender: Girl
Origin: Greek

Bobby(why not?)
My tendency is to continue the gender-setup based on how they would go if they were named in the alphabet, and consider them part of a fraternity or sorority.

This season: Vince (M) - Wilma (F) - Alpha (M) - Beta (F) - Gamma (M) - Delta (F) - etc.

Beta could be short for a Beta Beta Beta tropical sorority...

BTW, if a Greek letter is retired, that name is skipped over if they ever get that far down again. For example, should Beta be retired and we get back this far next year, it would go from Alpha straight to Gamma (or the next available name).

As of now, I think 6 names will be retired: Dennis, Emily, Katrina, Rita, Stan and Wilma.
Hello, all. I've been lurking for a while and was just wondering why Emily would be retired. Sure it was strong, but it did not have a large number of people dying. Any thoughts?
Hi All, checking in to see what's up. Thought I'd do a bit of civic duty today (thinking a couple of hours............WRONG!!!!!) and wound up spending the day doing a door-to-door making sure residents are OK. For the most part, yes, altho' we did convince one 91 yr old emphysema patient low on O2 to check into managed hospital stay early rather than as stressful emergency. His insurance supplied O2 provider doesn't have after-hour ph or beeper... bad sign. I'm so dumb I agreed to 8 more hours tomorrow... We got power last night so I keep telling folks to have hope.
I'm damned if I understand how people who had SO MUCH warning and time to prepare have found themselves in the predicament of not having water (altho' in Dade County it was ALWAYS safe to drink...) or ice or gasoline... The NHC and NWS and gov't pounds it into our heads to prepare for a minimum of 72 hrs on our own... My own household of 4 w/3 dogs could have gone at least a week. Not happy, but survivable.
Lost roof tiles on the ridge line, pool was a pain to clean out, and some tree damage. My wonderful Royal Poinciana, possibly the oldest in the city survived remarkably well as we are ALWAYS nattering at public works to keep it properly trimmed. (It's on the public right-of-way and they won't allow US to touch it, $500 fine... go figure...)
Don't EVEN getme started on where responsibilty lies on which level of government messed up. I know first-hand, with a front and center seat that municipal, county and state entities had all their ducks in a row. We couldn't have been more prepared, except for gas stations not having their own generators for the pumps. FEMA needs to get it's act together. And this from a fan of the acting director...
txcanewatcher -- I've found death toll numbers for Emily from 14 (Wikipedia) to 64 (some other website that I can't remember). Emily did significant damage to the island of Grenada, which had already been hard hit by Ivan. It also did millions of damage in Mexico. Certainly not as big as Katrina or Rita, or Wilma (in terms of $$$) but for a poor country like Grenada it was pretty bad.
I think the real problem is that most Americans simply can't fend for themselves. The only real weather disaster we face here in southwest VA is the ice storms in the winter where we occassionally lose power for 3 days and can't get off our mountain until it melts. And yet we have about a months worth of supplies on a shelf in our basement at all times, a generator (always with a full gas can) and a wood stove for heat in the winter.

The other night they showed a man in Pakistan that had carried his injured daughter close to 80 miles over a mountain pass in near freezing temperatures in bare feet to get her to a hospital. He had no food or water with him and he saved her life. There were no roads, just goat paths. In New Orleans they sat for days in the Superdome rather than walking the 100 feet through waist-deep water and out the nicely paved roads to the next town.

Ice storms hit here often with only a few hours notice, the power goes out for a few days and we just cozy up with the wood stove, hook the generator up to the freezer (or put the stuff outside where it's already freezing) and it's nothing more than an inconvenience. Trees fall down and you take the chainsaw to them after things thaw. Provided nothing fell on your house (much the same as in a hurricane) you're good to go. People are given a week's notice that a hurricane is coming and they can't even go to Walmart to get a few bottles of water and non perishable food that they ought to have in a closet somewhere at all times already when you live in a hurricane zone.

*sigh* Just been needing to get that off my chest for a few days.
000
WTNT31 KNHC 272341
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BETA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM EDT THU OCT 27 2005

...BETA CREEPING NORTHWARD...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER
TONIGHT OR FRIDAY.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLANDS OF SAN ANDRES
AND PROVIDENCIA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN COAST OF NICARAGUA FROM THE BORDER WITH COSTA
RICA NORTHWARD TO CABO GRACIAS A DIOS NEAR THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS
BORDER...AND ADJACENT ISLANDS. HURRICANE WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF NICARAGUA LATER TONIGHT OR
FRIDAY.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 8 PM EDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BETA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.4 WEST OR ABOUT
50 MILES...85 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN ANDRES ISLAND AND ABOUT
160 MILES... 255 KM...EAST OF BLUEFIELDS NICARAGUA.

BETA IS DRIFTING NORTHWARD NEAR 3 MPH...6 KM/HR. A SLOW NORTHWARD TO
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER OF BETA NEAR SAN ANDRES LATE
TONIGHT OR FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 60 MPH... 95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND
BETA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TONIGHT OR ON FRIDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES... 95 KM
FROM THE CENTER MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 7 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS CAN BE
EXPECTED ON SAN ANDRES AND PROVIDENCIA AS THE CENTER OF BETA PASSES
NEARBY.

TROPICAL STORM BETA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 10 TO
15 INCHES ACROSS COSTA RICA...NORTHEASTERN HONDURAS...NICARAGUA...
SAN ANDRES...AND PROVIDENCIA. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
20 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.

REPEATING THE 8 PM EDT POSITION...11.9 N... 81.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 3 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 60 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 997 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 PM EDT.

FORECASTER AVILA
P.S. - The Pakistani was obviously a victim of the recent earthquake there where the death toll was in the tens of thousands... People being without power is an inconvenience (unless you're on life support). Tens of thousands of people being killed is a disaster.
I agree elliston! Too fat and sassy and self-satisfied.
I was born and raised in Puerto Rico and also lived around Latin America. You LEARNED to prepare for the unexpected. Hell, we even have plenty of toilet paper and paper towels as well as plates and glasses to keep ourselves going and the hand can opener... loads of bleach, not only for laundry but for water (NOT scented) and plenty of canned food, all our prescriptions are ALWAYS refilled in advance. We had gasoline for a good number of days for the generator and vehicles' full tanks...
You can't expect the government to be there from the first moment... yet, many do here...
the earthquake in the Kashmir area was absolutely horrific. There are undoubtedly villages to which they still haven't gotten and people who might have survived who didn't.
We get stuck on the idea that we must have all these *things*. And, I admit, I am one who enjoys them. I also try to put everything in perspective. Guess that's why I'm out there volunteering to make sure folks who still don't have *stuff* are OK...
I agree, Elliston. You have mail on the subject.
::G:: Gonna go feed this fat and sassy, self-satisfied broad who did more walking today than in ages... might check back later, might fall asleep.
Would someone please dial up the hurrycane gods and tell them that Beta needs to be dialed back? Central America doesn't need a good soaking and we don't need anymore blowing...
still though Gables, bless you for going out there and trying anyway.
Hi all Just checking in from Naples Just got power back and internet. Anyone heard from other Naples people? Spent the storm in the inyerior hallway 121 MPH winds at airport about 3 blocks away. Really scared.
Jasmine, someone was asking last night if anyone had heard from you. Can't remember who, now. Sorry. So many posts! You came through OK?
jasmine -happy to see you made it through!
Hey Elliston,
I agree with you 95% - we are a country that sues McDonald's when we spill hot coffee (ouch!) and expects a water truck to drive up to our house 15 minutes after a hurricane. The 5% that I disagree about is this comment

"In New Orleans they sat for days in the Superdome rather than walking the 100 feet through waist-deep water and out the nicely paved roads to the next town. "

The earliest evacuees to the Superdome where special needs people and their families, those people couldn't just walk out (a walk that would have taken a few hours in blistering hot sun) Some people DID attempt to cross the Miss River Bridge (all other routes were flooded) and were turned back by armed Gretna Police. There were also rumors flying around about snipers and armed gangs (not hard to believe in New Orleans, although later said to be mostly untrue) I think you have to live that situation to truly comprehend.

Anyhoo, my 2 cents. Most Americans need to get real, quit eating twinkies and shopping as a form of entertainment, and figure out a way to be productive and not rely on our apparently inept government.
Hey all :-)
I guess I should have said hi too, before I jumped in and started! Hi everyone. It is great that we are hearing from more and more South Florida folks.
Hi 21!
I think we all understand that there is always a disclaimer for those with disabilities, etc. That's not the majority of people who they were interviewing for 5 days on the nightly news however.

I generally don't get on my soap box and really shouldn't have here. So I give my apologies. Thinking about that Pakistani guy and then hearing a woman on the news in Florida complaining that she had no ice just really got to me.
107. dcw
Something to note:
'Our inept government' is not responsible for us. We are.
Is anyone able to tell if the heaviest convection (as per satellite IR and WV) is over the center of Beta (as defined by NHC)? Seems a bit east to me.
Yeah, dcw, but our taxes and good faith should count for something. I will say no more, don't want to start a political debate.

Elliston, by the time people in the S'dome realized that there was no calvary coming, there really wasn't any way to walk out of there, even for folks that were able bodied. The Greater New Orleans bridge was literally being guarded by armed white police who were ostensibly afraid of the "dangerous" black New Orleans refugees.

Like I said, I agree with everything else. When we have so much warning about hurricanes, it is inconceivable that people would not be better prepared. I'll go even further than that, though. We should ALL have supplies on hand for a few days survival - there are all sorts of disasters and most of them come without warning.
Is it possible to look at the IR with the center point marked? Is that a dumb question? I'm still new at this!
Elliston, I like hearing your opinions - keep the soapbox handy!
i'm still not 100% on cable modem, it's up.. for now. lights are still on though. fpl says another 7-10 working days for power at the office.
NOLAinNC that is my problem precisely. I'm looking at the IR or WV and see major convection (which could actually influence the position of the center of a forming TS), and am left wondering...
hee hee - thanks NOLA - I'm off now to bed time for some Zzzz's before getting up in the morning to do it all over again!

Night all!
From 11 pm NHC advisory:
AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BETA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 12.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.4 WEST OR ABOUT 35
MILES...55 KM...SOUTHEAST OF SAN ANDRES ISLAND AND ABOUT 160
MILES...260 KM...EAST OF BLUEFIELDS NICARAGUA.

BETA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 2 MPH ... 4 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A TURN
TO NORTHWEST AND WEST THEREAFTER.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH...100
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. BETA WILL LIKELY BECOME A HURRICANE ON
FRIDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES ...95 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES.

Question: how low can the pressure and how far north can Beta go?
Anyone care to make predictions on rainfall/ flooding potential into Guatemala from TS/Hurricane Beta over the next couple days? AS luck would have it I'm flying there in the next 2 days and have no idea what if anything to watch out for, this blew up so quickly and I can't get out of the trip. Thanks
you're certainly much better off in Guatemala than Honduras or Nicaragua - how long you staying?
Hi, uh 9 days; needless to say long planned trip; mostly going to the ruins, Tikal etc but they say we can get up to Atitlan area and we are supposed to go to Copan in Honduras to the Mayan site as well; (??)
oops! well keep a close eye on the weather - if you have internet access check into the NHC and Wunderblogs, and you'll be on top of things. If no internet, have someone at home keep tabs and let you know what's happening.

Current forecast is for Beta to rain itself out over Nicaragua/Honduras. Quote from 11 pm NHC discussion:
IF BOTH TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECAST VERIFY...BETA WILL LIKELY
BE A VERY SERIOUS HURRICANE PRIMARILY FOR NICARAGUA PRODUCING
CONSIDERABLE DAMAGE FROM BOTH WINDS AND TORRENTIAL RAINS.

I would stay well away from Nicaragua and southeastern Honduras, but as said keep an eye on things please.
Been lurking here through several storms and feel compelled to respond to the dialogue about responsibility. What we have here is a failure to (be a) community.

Latest Navy microwave image
how do i post a photo on to a blog?
I think I should apologise for my wife.
She was going to New Orleans and Katrina struck, she was due in Cancun the day Wilma hit. Currently she is in Mexico heading for Guatemala.

If I give you her full itinerary it should end speculation about hurricane tracking.
Where can you go to get the model loops, like the ones i saw yesterday, with Beta moving north? Oh yeah Accuweather said if the trof is strong enough it will steer Beta north and will threat Cuba and South Fl. More and more models show it moving more north and West.
Mistake Models show it moving more north than west, in other words they have no clue where its going
LOL, gamera...

From now on, if your wife finds she's not welcomed with open arms the next place she visits, hope she won't take it personally...

As far as being prepared in an emergency is concerned, I think it's always a good idea to keep some bottled water, enough for at least 5 days, and at the least about 10 cans of tunafish per person (plus a manual can opener) on hand. No fun eating canned tuna for 5 days, but at least it's easy to have on hand, you won't starve, and you dont need refrigeration. I do find it odd that with so much advance warning many people in S. Florida seem to have been caught unprepared. I know that the FLA east coast got hit harder than expected, but still...they should have been expecting some power outages.
128. OGal
Interesting about being ready for hurricanes. We keep a complete cupboard full of food in our laundry room. We bought a generator after being hit three times last year and losing power. We have several tarps and keep about 12 cases of bottled water. It is all about what you can do for yourself and your neighbors. We worked as a neighborhood helping to patch roofs and remove trees until help could come. You have to rely on yourself. South Florida had plenty of warning.
129. dcw
Does this look disturbigly Wilma-like to anyone else?
130. OGal
dcw, I think that this is truly a Wilma wantabe.
Good morning everyone, just caught up on what has been posted since I left work last night. Good to see some more names popping up. CGables, I was wondering about you; glad to see you are up and running and helping people. We still have no power at my house so I can only use PC at work. Even if we get power, Comcast cable is also my internet service and no telling when they will get on line. We have a great neighborhood and have always worked together in these types of events, all sharing our stuff and cooking together, removing trees and downed fences together lol, lol...

I see some discussion and I agree. People are told to be prepared for 7 days of no help after a storm. It is not a big deal; just pick a closet, think about what items you will need if you are going camping with no power or water then add to this the tarps, first aid kit, etc. Then put them all in plastic containers in the closet and tell the rest of the family they cannot touch until Dec 1st!
Even though it's only Hubby our dog and I, I pack enough for the kids and their family because I know they will come to us if things get bad (it did and they came!)
Once again, good to hear from you all...
Gamma
Wave now at 10N 42W
133. OGal
Gamma, so glad to hear that you agree with preparation. It is not the governments job to take care of us. Let's really work on this blog to make sure we all prepare for next season. Of course if we get hit by cat 4 or 5 all bets are off. I think even getting your trees cleaned out is a good idea. Don't cut them down if you do not have to because they help divert the wind. Let's talk about what best to do for 2006------------------YUCK!!!
Hi All,

You've probably forgooten all about Wilma by now.

Buet here in the UK, we should be seeing what's left of her at the weekend :(

http://www.metcheck.com

"Wilma's Remains...
Added : Fri 28 Oct : 12:28:44 PM

As often can be the case during the hurricane season within the Atlantic basin, the remnants of hurricanes travel Northwards and become transformed into ex-tropical and sometimes potent North Atlantic low pressure systems. This will be the case this weekend as the remnants of hurricane Wilma come ashore within a potent North Atlantic low pressure.

After what is expected to be a mostly dry and settled day away from the Southwest of the UK during Saturday, the weather will deteriorate rather quickly, with cloud and wind increasing, heralding the arrival of some heavy and persistent rain. A wild night is expected across many parts of the country on Saturday night with strong to gale force winds and heavy rain. "
leonrosk,
greetings. Sorry you are also getting some of Wilma. I know you do get a lot of our storms over in northern Europe and the UK. HOpe it is not as bad but she is really a nasty lady! We in South Florida have not forgotton her at all. My house still has no power. A lot of clean up work do to; she left her mark here and made sure we remember her for months to come!
Take care.
Gamma
I am no expert but looking at the Carribean water vapor this morning (8:00 AM EDT) I think that wilma if she survives the shear will be dragged much further North. Also there is a blog just NE of wilma(15N75W) that seems to be flaring up. Originall all the models were projecting weatward track but wilma seems to be headed more north. Also what affect will this disturbance (15N75W) have on wilma???
Sorry about the confusion I meant Beta (NOT WILMA) form my post. I guess I just have wilma still on my mind
138. ivorb
As a beginner, is there any chance the two systems ( Beta and the one to the NE) could combine? Looking at the loops it seems their tracks could converge.
i too notice this feature norheast of beta.....

in the latest floater water vapor loop of beta this blob to the northeast of beat seems larger, with higher cloud tops.

will be interesting to see if this feature holds together today. could this be gamma????
NOOOOO, I don't want a hurricane named after me!
They are too mean and wicked this year? LOL
Gamma
Hi Just testing out a IR water vapor linkLink
142. OGal
Our weatherman here in Orlando said that the blob northeast of Beta will become part of Beta, so Gamma you are safe, at least at the moment.
143. ivorb
OGal, Does this mean the intesity of Beta will increase?
Link

you might want to see this click on storm 26
weatherguru,
NOOOOOO

(thanks for the link)
146. OGal
Just a thought, since there is plenty of gas in Florida, why can't gas stations have generators on hand to pump that gas. Sure would make it easier for lots of people. Maybe since the oil companies are making so much money they could help their local stations get these generators.
Morning, folks. Just sneaking a peek from work. Do a little catch up, and now, back to the salt mine!
OGal, I am total agreement. I believe in companies getting the room to make big money,however, with our fuel situation anyway, it is almost shameful for Big Oil to post such record breaking profits this year while everyone else is hurting. Gas is almost a monopoly; something we must have and cannot go elsewhere to get. This type of talk coming from someone like me could be funny but fair is fair and they should really think about taking a little less profit and lowering their prices a little.
OK I will shut up on this topic now.
(by the way I am a Republican but when something is not right it needs to be called out!)
new blog