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Beryl weakening

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 7:24 PM GMT on July 20, 2006

Beryl has begun a slow decline in strength this afternoon. The latest Hurricane Hunter center report at 2pm EDT found the pressure unchanged from the 7am advisory, 1002 mb. Long range radar from Long Island (Figure 1) shows some good spiral banding, but the storm has a much more ragged appearance on satellite pictures. Infrared satellite imagery shows a substantial warming of the cloud tops, which means Beryl's thunderstorms are not reaching as high into the atmosphere. This morning's Central Dense Overcast (CDO) is gone. With the wind shear now rising steadily and sea surface temperatures declining, Beryl's winds will probably start to decrease late tonight. The Hurricane Hunters found top winds of only 45 mph at the surface in their 2pm pass through the storm, but hadn't sampled the entire storm yet.


Figure 1.Current long-range radar out of Long Island.

Impact on New England
A strong band of westerly upper-level winds over New England has turned Beryl to the north-northeast, and she will likely pass very close to Massachusetts' Nantucket Island early Friday morning. At 2pm EDT, waves at the Long Island buoy 38 miles south of Islip were up to 11 feet, and winds were gusting to 36 mph. Large waves on top of the expected 1-3 foot storm surge should cause some moderate beach erosion along the southeast Massachussetts coast. Fortunately, Beryl's closest approach to land at 4am EDT Friday coincides with low tide. Beryl will be moving quickly when it passes Massachusetts, and some of the heaviest rain will remain offshore, so flooding from rainfall should be minor. Rains of 1-4 inches are expected in southeast Massachussetts, Long Island, and Rhode Island.

Elsewhere in the tropics
An area of disturbed weather a few hundred miles north of Puerto Rico has diminished. A large cloud of African dust over the eastern Atlantic should keep things quiet there the rest of the week. None of the computer models are hinting at any development over the next week.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thank You for the update Dr.Master's.
Yes, Beryl Ives is fading, soon to turn into a rippin nor'easter. Looks like the water cools pretty quickly in B's path.
getting pretty close to New York City.. 110 nautical miles, southwest..
Something else will come soon I'll bet...dust or no dust.
Guys i think i found another LLC in the atlantic tropics check this out....all it needs is some convection now.
23, where is it ?
23, that map definitely needs some context...that could be anywhere!
where is it!
In a few hours I am going to do the 5 pm update. For those that missed the 1 pm update with the impact analysis its on Hurricane Warning
456 you had an image a little while ago that was great, it was from accuweather but I cannot locate it on their site. Would you re-post? Or state how to find it at accuweather? I don't see it on your own blog either. Thanks.

Also, anyone, why, when Dr Masters posts new data does the blog change? The thread disappears and in the archives it only lists Dr. M's reports not the rest. Is there a way to go back to older posts? I've lost many links that way that I hadn't had a chance to bookmark. Thanks.
I just looked at the entire Atlantic and I see nothing.
http://www.hurricanewarning1.com/

Heres the url, link wouldnt work
Correction, 456, it was a link to an image. Thanks.
Google map of H23's LLC You need to zoom out though
Hurricane Warning


Ok, i figured it out. Analysis is on that link.
hurricane 23, thats not an LLC. just a broad surface low.
FLANative, If you click on Blogs and then on Jeff Masters name it brings up past blogs. Click on this mornings blog and it will come up. I figured that out yesterday. :)
FLN - The way I've gone back to the old comments before is to click on the "blogs" link at the top, go to Jeff's blogs, and they are listed there. Just click on the "view comments".
Let's not start getting stinky.
FlaNative--click on the back button to get to the most recent post from Dr. M. Scroll down--below the most recent post I see the 4 previous and can pick up all comments from there.
AH HA! Many thanks all!
I've been watching this storm all morning, it looked really promising at about 15Z just before they issued the Watch for my area (I'm just east of Pt. Jefferson, NY) but has since been drifting more North Eastward.

And Dr. M's statement about Beryl not looking so hot on the IR is an understatement, it looks downright flimsy at this point. Yet the wind and rain are holding together outstandingly well all things considered.
Cape Cod, MA landfall seems likely with a weaker system around 50mph. Beryl's strengthening period is gone and hurricane status is no longer in reach. It seemed to see that she also slowed down some, or it could be just me, from 13mph to 11mph to the NNE. This would bring her over the southeastern Massachusetts coast by 9 or 10pm tonight. The NWS in Taunton, MA said that her winds at tropical storm force could last from 10pm tonight to 5am tomorrow. Thats about 7 hours of strong winds and many weak trees could fall here and widespread outages may seem likely. Any thoughts?
URNT12 KNHC 201938
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 20/19:25:00Z
B. 39 deg 19 min N
072 deg 26 min W
C. 850 mb 1427 m
D. 35 kt
E. 307 deg 051 nm
F. 063 deg 037 kt
G. 306 deg 031 nm
H. 1002 mb
I. 14 C/ 1524 m
J. 18 C/ 1523 m
K. 17 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1234 / 8
O. 0.02 / 3 nm
P. AF309 0502A BERYL OB 13
MAX FL WIND 52 KT NE QUAD 18:12:00 Z
RAINBANDS IN N AND NW QUADS


does anyone remember when i said a storm was gonna hit either july 23 24 and 25 somewhere in the u.s? i think i was right..
wind and rain should still be around even if beryl ives becomes extra-tropical
Been getting blasted this afternoon here in Fort Myers. Pretty good wave.
NWAtlanticCyclone, from the way things seem to be unfolding with this storm (how most of the rain is consentrated at the north end of the system) it looks like it's going to unfurl more like a good old fashioned Nor' Easter than anything else.

I'm going to guess Nantucket is going to see the absolute worst of this system, barring any major trajectory changes in the next 6-10 hours. Chances are they'll lose some of thier less resiliant trees which could take some powerlines with them. I don't think there's much more to worry about than that.

The CoS of Hurrican Floyd passed about 5km from my house 7 years ago, and we had sustained winds of about 55mph for a good 3 hours with gusts around 70 and everything held up OK, I wouldn't worry too much about Beryl at this point.
bet ole Ted Kennedy is stocking up on scotch for the storm tonight......lets just hope he doesn't get out driving!
I remember that, but it's only the 20. At least three days off.
What is in the Gulf off the coast of west florida with a little cc rotation in the upper atmosphere? Upper level low?
Stormy could probably tell you, but she's at her afternoon therapy session right now.
thelmores, I've been wanting to say something about Marthas Vineyard. Thank You !
andrew92...but it was really close for guessin about 3 weeks earlier without any models
the Gulf thing is an upper level spin. they mention it in the nhc discussion.
yes it was, you get half credit. lol
LOL saddle ...
...it isn't spinning...it isn't spinning...it isn't spinning...
FLA ...also, if you just click on "Dr. Jeff Master's ..." at the top of this page, it takes you to the archives.

I also think it is strange that the thread changes when Dr. Jeff posts an update to the blog - you all left me talking to myself for hours in the old thread...
sorry..send me the link
Quickscat 12m res of Beryl, a little over an hour ago.
Posted By: quakeman55 at 3:33 PM AST on July 20, 2006.
Something else will come soon I'll bet...dust or no dust.

Posted By: hurricane23 at 3:36 PM AST on July 20, 2006.
Guys i think i found another LLC in the atlantic tropics check this out....all it needs is some convection now


dust or no dust..there are two tropical waves in the atlantic....the only thing missing from these waves is convection....hence the term silent killers/trouble....

and there is dust in the atlantic but i would like dr. jeff to post an image where the dust is....

because the last time I check, the c'bbean isnt the atlantic.....
Skye - Thanks for the view. Good to see QuickSCAT is back, and actually covers the area of interest today. Still a vigorous surface circulation with Beryl, but she's looking rather ragged above, as if she is starting to transition.

Stormy2day - Heh, I've been left talking to myself on old blogs before plenty, I always appreciate when someone alerts me with a "New Blog" post before they leave.
the dust is in the eastern atlatic!!!!!

the waves I'm tracking is almost ready to enter the c'bbean sea..

If, the models miss beryl's formation, then i'm not about to take them up on this....

I rather go with low ind shear, warm SST and moist air.....
Stormy - did the same thing today. Sort of reminded me of being at home!
StormW - Nice link showing the dust. I would like to find some scientific studies of dust over the historical and paleoclimatological records in the tropical Atlantic...there should be evidence left in the sediments...could be that GW will have the effect of increasing the dust, thus affecting the pattern of Hurricane formation in the Atlantic (pure speculation).

Loess and dust can play a big role in the climate. If anyone here is ever in the Lower Michigan peninsula, take a trip to the east central coast of Lake Michigan. It is an amazing micro-environment, huge sand dunes a couple of hundred feet high or more, left over from the end of the last ice age. I hiked around there in June one year...the "marine layer" coming off of the cold lake created drifting fog all day reminding me of the California coast, and the old towering sand dunes are amazing...
456 do any of the models hint at a disorgbanized 850mb vorticity in the areas that you are watching?
Sorry, forgot my manors.

Afternoon everyone. Just walked in from work...yipee!
Good Afternoon StormJunkie. Nice feeling to get your days work completed, hey?

One problem with telecommuting, you feel like you are never done...
53. V26R
Looks Like NYCLI has Dodged another Bullet for now! All we're getting here in Staten Island are random Showers and Nice gusty breezes!
Stormy2day, I still work and try to set an agenda . Small company, point is, most of the time I'm talking to myself. It's a whole different working world today.
Second that Guygee.
I have compile wind shear, dry air and sea surface temps....this what i came up with:

Gee Chef...kinda sounds like marriage because I'm talking to myself most of the time too !
width = "500" Height ="440">
SORRY GUYS MESSED UP ON IMAGE!!!
Nice to see one of us escaped from work SJ :)


also, hurricane23, those products cost money and you might get in trouble for posting them.
FLAnative - I guess I have problems with that "agenda" part, LOL! But sometimes the mood strikes late at night, and that can be when I get the most work done!
hey weather456, I understand the point you're trying to make with the Atlantic waves, but calling them "silent killers" is over the top and does little to inform but much to alarm those who tune in here for solid information on the tropics..
My office is from home ...they call me a "remote" corporate employee ...meaning it helps their sanity to keep me far, far away. I talk to myself often and know when I'm "off work" by looking at what is in my koozie cup...
When Beryl leaves us, none of the models show anything for the next 12 days...but if something does make it off the African Coast, it looks like there's nothing to turn it North away from the FL/FL Straights area.

What's with that ULL off the NE FL Coast? If the convection to its West gets pulled in ... ??? Thoughts ?
Stormy - how do I apply for one of those jobs?
sorry about that snowboy.......silent trouble is more appropiate......i use the term in comparing it to something
What a beauty...


Yep, nice to be off work, as for feeling that I accomplished everything I needed too, I leave work feeling like confused. What we are suppose to accomplish, and what we need to accomplish, and what we can accomplish is very vague these days. It is not the same company I started working for. Just not the same dedication at any level.

Stormy, I'll shoot my resume over to you. Forward it to the people you need to and put in a good word for me. lol:)

SJ
Stormy2day - I just made a big pot of coffee, added a little cream and some ice into one of those big "Circle K" 64 oz "Thirstbusters", and poured the whole pot of coffee over the ice and cream...

Am I off work yet? ;)
saddle ...seriously, it isn't as good as it sounds. It makes it very difficult to leave work at the office.

Oh heck, who am I kidding? It's great! :-)
Sounds like it!!!! I just changed jobs a few months ago. Went from driving an hour each way to driving 5 minutes and half the stress so...who am I to complain. I aint that bad and I like my new boss!
Don't think I could do the "remote" job !
The koozie cup would have the good stuff in it most of the time.
guygee ...nope, you are still working. A little shot of Rum in that Thirstbuster should do the trick though.

64oz?? of coffee? Good grief, you better not have a long drive ahead of you!
No, Guygee, that sounds like gearing up for phase 2 (or 3 or 4) of your day! LOL That's my drink of the a.m. too. (Fat free half n half though.) Pros and Cons to working from home...we get to leave WU minimized on your computer all day...I get to home for kid needs.....and can work around msot anything schedule wise. Does take discipline to shut the door on the 'office' sector and leave 'work' behind...I'm never really 'off' work. But that's ok and my choice. Chef is right it is a different working world today.
You guys I work in a small town at the City Hall. This town is LITERALLY one street - main street and that is it. It's like living in Mayberry! It's great though. I stepped out of a very fast paced, confusing lacksidaisical world into an old fashioned, "we are glad you are here" place. The ethics, comradre and just overall atmosphere is so entertaining.
Well I'm off until later but still open is:


Todays Question:What was the most aesthetically pleasing storm of all-time?

aesthetically meaning beautiful, I've got most respsonse of Hurricane Isabel 2003
leave ur chioce at my blog....
FLA ...I'm suppose to leave WU minimized while I work? oops...

456 & 23 ...nice images you've posted - thanks! I'm a visual person and the images speak to me.
Hello All:

I realize that the focus of this site is activity in the Atlantic, and it's certainly the riskier area in terms of loss of lives and property, but I also thought y'all were into hurricanes in general?

With that said, has anyone noticed the impressive little 135 mph hurricane churning in the Pacific? Daniel is quite the beauty, and best of all, he's keeping to himself and not hurting anyone. So, let's give some love to our Pacific brethren! Check out the most recent discussion:

000
WTPZ45 KNHC 202032
TCDEP5
HURRICANE DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052006
200 PM PDT THU JUL 20 2006

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT DANIEL HAS BECOME A
VERY IMPRESSIVE HURRICANE. A RECENT SSMIS MICROWAVE OVERPASS
DETECTED A VERY SYMMETRIC HURRICANE WITH A 25-30 NM WIDE EYE.
DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...THE EYE HAS BECOME MORE DISTINCT
AND WARMED...WHICH HAS ALLOWED DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES TO
INCREASE TO 115 KT FROM ALL AGENCIES. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 115 KT...MAKING DANIEL A POWERFUL CATEGORY
FOUR HURRICANE.

BOTH THE SHIPS AND GFDL INTENSITY GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT DANIEL
SHOULD REACH ITS PEAK INTENSITY VERY SOON. THE OFFICIAL
WIND SPEED FORECAST HAS BEEN MODIFIED SLIGHTLY TO REFLECT THIS.
IT IS ANTICIPATED THAT THE HURRICANE WILL BE SLOWER TO WEAKEN THAN
GUIDANCE INDICATES GIVEN ITS ANNULAR APPEARANCE. AFTER 48 HOURS...
DANIEL WILL LIKELY WEAKEN AT A FASTER RATE...AS SHEAR IS FORECAST
TO INCREASE AND THE SSTS GRADUALLY COOL.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 290/8. MODEL GUIDANCE IS
TIGHTLY CLUSTERED ON A WEST-NORTHWEST HEADING FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS.
THEREAFTER...SOME SPREAD IS SEEN IN THE TRACK MODELS AS THE GFDL
CONTINUES TO TURN THE CYCLONE NORTHWARD...WHILE THE UKMET...
NOGAPS...AND GFS CONTINUE DANIEL ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD HEADING.
THE CURRENT TRACK MAINTAINS THE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD HEADING AND IS
AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK.

AN EXCELLENT AND VERY IMPRESSIVE QUIKSCAT PASS FROM 1356 UTC HELPED
TO DEFINE THE WIND RADII FOR THIS ADVISORY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 20/2100Z 12.7N 123.4W 115 KT
12HR VT 21/0600Z 13.1N 124.6W 120 KT
24HR VT 21/1800Z 13.6N 126.1W 110 KT
36HR VT 22/0600Z 14.1N 127.9W 100 KT
48HR VT 22/1800Z 14.6N 129.6W 85 KT
72HR VT 23/1800Z 15.5N 133.0W 65 KT
96HR VT 24/1800Z 16.5N 135.5W 55 KT
120HR VT 25/1800Z 18.0N 137.5W 45 KT

$$
FORECASTER BROWN
Daniel is sure the kind of storms i like....
Daniel is our friend... you are right...he deserves a little attention - especially since he isn't bothering anyone and is just out there having a good ole time. Of course, back to this morning's conversation - no gloom and doom - no media.
saddle ...do you live in my little city? Do you have a Casino that isn't really a "casino", they just call it that? Does the ice cream truck carry Pet Paws (ice cream for dogs)? Do you have your own police department and everyone except the locals are scared to death of them?
saddlegait - Sounds like a great set-up. I still need to drive to work in Orlando at least a couple days a week, and I am allowed to work at home the rest of the week. The commute is 65 miles, one way, and my air conditioner died on me last week, just to top it off.

Yeah, I guess I am starting Phase 2 of my workday...I'll catch everyone later...deadlines, deadlines, and drop-deadlines.
Hard question on a beautiful storm. Can't remember one really intense and symmetrical,
that didn't harm anyone. Except maybe in the Pacific.
..TROPICAL WAVES AND LOWS...

A 1012 MB LOW IS LOCATED OFF THE COAST OF W AFRICA NEAR 14N18W
DRIFTING W. A RECENT QUIK-SCAT PASS SHOWED A CLOSED
CIRCULATION. PRESENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CYCLONIC
TURNING WITH RAIN SHOWERS...THAT ARE BEING SUPPRESSED BY A PLUME
OF THICK AFRICAN DUST.


Hail to the Dust!
I live in a TINY city. We DO have our own police department complete with a chief - two dispatchers and six officers. They spend most of their time making sure dogs aren't barking, outsiders aren't setting up house in the one alley we have and breaking up domestic situations. No casinos...this is South Alabama - three churches though - that's just in the city limits. One small town bank and two "big city" bank branches trying to set up on the outskirts - the small town one is holding its own though. Same Mayor for like..ever..same City Council, etc. Very efficiently run and very well publicized for what it is - it's just a lovely place to visit and a lovely place to live. Crime is basically childish pranks or drugs from outside.
Oh - quite-thirty - gotta git. Might get caught at that one redlight on my way out of town - hopefully I won't get behind a tractor.
Back from the beach, hubby still surfing. Waves geting bigger, lots of spray and seaweed and a ton of washed up horseshoe crabs in a place I have never seen them before. (Camp Cronin, for any RIers) Narragansett beach was really going off, the water was already to the sea wall and there were a ton of surfers down there. My honey's at Matunuck, south facing, so I bet it's huge there too. I took some pics but haven't put them on my blog yet.
saddlegait, sounds like a nice little town.
I don't like to be mean but shoot any developer on sight. They ruined this place.
Welcome WCC.

No disrepect to Pac storms, as there are many that have been very impressive. The symetry and sat signature of some of those storms are amazing. My hang up comes when I realize how much I still have to learn about genisis, steering, and intensification of Atl basin cyclones.

That being said, Daniel is impressive.

SJ
Evening Spy.

Interesting with the horseshoe crabs. I spent a week out at the beach in Charleston just after Alberto went through and we had tons of ants on the beach. Lines that stretched the whole beachand were two feet wide with heavy ants. Some were dead, some were not. Alberto stirred up a nasty nest of em some where And it was over land..

StormJunkie.com-Models, imagery, marine data, wind data, preparedness info, and much more. Also some nice Wilma storm footage from WU bloggers.

SJ
Any chance that Daniel might affect Hawaii? Seems to be making a beeline in that direction.
RR, If it did approach the islands, I think it would likely be very weak. The waters are very cool out there. Another blogger described it as it would have to go S of the islands and then hook back N in order to stay over warm enough waters.

and sorry about that link in my last postStormJunkie.com
My town used to be small... until the developers got here!!!!
Mine too Bay :)
everyone blames the developers..but someone had to sell them the land and some giverment had to aloow the building
Daniel is very impressive, and marks yet another major (Cat 4/Cat 5) hurricane/typhoon. These major storms are becoming more common (in my view as a consequence of the strengthening greenhouse effect), and this marks a change from anything we've seen in the past..
psst...me thinks ric is a developer
:-)
UZNT13 KNHC 202212
XXAA 70228 99382 70738 11683 99017 23618 32512 00144 23427 30517
92822 19421 29021 85548 15603 29531 88999 77999
31313 09608 82206
61616 AF309 0502A BERYL OB 25
62626 SPL 3822N07379W 2208 MBL WND 30016 AEV 20604 DLM WND 29022
015854 WL150 31515 084 =
XXBB 70228 99382 70738 11683 00017 23618 11905 18832 22850 15603
33843 14000
21212 00017 32512 11997 30518 22970 29015 33870 29033 44854 29031
55843 30031
31313 09608 82206
61616 AF309 0502A BERYL OB 25
62626 SPL 3822N07379W 2208 MBL WND 30016 AEV 20604 DLM WND 29022
015854 WL150 31515 084 =

1017mb, 12kt at the surface and 31kt at flight-level
Beryl looks to be somewhat slowing on radar. If there is no action anywhere else and Beryl is still here, why do you guys anticipate on talking about other things other then Beryl. She is going to make landfall on the Southeastern area of Massachusetts. Even if she is not all that strong and just a tropical storm, you still have to give her the same respect and Daniel is not going to affect the United States unless it hits Hawaii as a tropical storm or minimal hurricane and I doubt that to begin with.
nope...career navy......will have 30 years next June....just pointing out an obvious fact
Guys i see an indication of increasing SW-W winds aloft. Core appears to be spreading out, too, a sign that the transition to ET may be starting.
SJ ...
weenie police? :-)
Look at this incredible eye on Daniel...

CLICK ON THUMBNAIL...
Free Image Hosting at www.ImageShack.us


wow the gulf can now have cat 5 winds and look at the bule it got in big the klast time i look
no question 23, Daniel is a mean-looking storm - good he's out over the Pacific where there's no harm done..
You are correct ric. My wife is a councilperson and has a platform of "smart growth" she isnt against development, just development that is in keeping with the atmosphere of our community. We look at Orange Beach as what NOT to do.
This is what we get without a Beryl ...

The National Weather Service in Ruskin has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
central Pasco County in Florida.

* Until 700 PM EDT

* at 611 PM EDT... National Weather Service Doppler radar indicated a
severe thunderstorm... capable of producing penny size hail and
damaging 60 mph winds... over central Pasco County. The storm was
nearly stationary.

* The severe thunderstorm will be near...
Darby.
San Antonio.
Denham.
Land O Lakes.

Severe thunderstorms contain wind gusts of 60 mph or higher... and
hail the size of pennies or larger. Move to a place of safety.

&&

Lat... Lon 2818 8260 2818 8240 2830 8229 2842 8225
2842 8243
I meant she is FOR smart development!
Check Out www.joinacf.org Great Group!
jphurricane2006 you got me but look at the gulf in all bule
122. SpyRI
It's sunny again! I put a couple of wave photos on my blog if anyone is interested, but it's really not as big as a nice nor'easter. Still it's nice to hear and feel waves that big, wish it was like this all year. http://www.wunderground.com/blog/SpyRI/show.html
yep..there is a strong wave coming off....but too much dry air...
its the end of July, the dust will not get far west at that density..by the time its at 60W its already moisten....
jphurricane2006 i wish i new the ? for you but i dont no it


red hot sea temps in the gulf + 2 eddys in the gulf + most of the gulf can have a cat 5 hurricane + this year may be the year that some one a long the gulf may see a cat 5 land fall this year + we are overe dune for a cat 5 land fall
KNHC 202253
97779 22514 50384 70300 15200 21035 15121 /2555
42235
RMK AF309 0502A BERYL OB 26

Reports 35kt surface winds.
Wind shear maps shows that wind shear is no more than 20 knots from 40W to 80W, 10N and 20N, Gulf remain wind shear free...

Taz, i dont know about Cat 5 landfall, but i sure see an active august.....

some other non tropical indicator are
-the quiet July we had
-a period of eastern pacific activity is often followed by an active atlantic.....
-when the models dont show anything forming
-my guts
yes stormy, you are getting what we had earlier, it's moving north. was quite severe, as Chef said we were "blasted" but now the sun is out :) BTW, our newspaper today had three psychics opinions on 2006 hurricane season....how's that? (re media hype discussion earlier)
jp, yep it could happen at 60%....i certainly know that one of them could be enchance in convection, from that upper level feature north of Hispaniola, unless it does not move toward florida...

Actually JP southflorida has been extremly lucky since hurricane andrew.Katrina,Wilma were tuff hurricanes but my friend a Major hurricane like the i went threw is a terrible nightmare.Its funny cause people think they have experienced the worst condtions a hurricane has to offer is very wrong cause cat 1 winds from katrina and very brief gusts to cat 2 during wilma is nothing compared to the 145mph winds i went threw during hurricane andrew.To this day i still rememeber making a 5 hour line for 1 bag of ice.
JPhurricane,

July 13- 60 knots of shear over PR
Jult 18- 40 knots of shear over PR
July 20- 20 knots of shear over PR

July 13- 60 knots of shear from Jamaica to north of PR
July 16- 40-50 knots of shear from S of Hispaniola to th Leeward Is.
July 20- 20knots of shear across the Island chain and almost 0 in Jamaica

July 13- Northern Gulf had 20-30knots shear
July 20- None

July 13- central atlantic had 40 knots shear from 60W to 30W
July 20- 0 to 20 knots shear from 30W to 70W north of 12N south of 20N
Also Shear have increase 40 knots in the EPAC except for an area of 0knots south of Acapulco
Hurricane Warning

Since Beryl is approaching New England and the northeast now I have taken all available data up to 8 pm and have made an impacts analysis of Beryl on Hurricane Warning. This will provide information on what can be expected from Beryl as it goes by including a wind, rain, wave, and storm surge forecast. I have also included all the latest information on forecast path and intensity in the update. This is a new update and builds upon the 1 pm update.
139. PBG00
Actually..23 are you forgetting Francis and Jeanne???They may not have been major storms..But 10 and seven days without power..standing in line only to have them say all gone and military meals was not fun..Tell me do you have children?..Please don't compare experiences..Francis sat over Palm beach for 2 days..Broward didn't even get francis and Jeane..So whats worse one major storm or two decent storms hitting the same area three weeks apart? Andrew was awefull..no one denies that but don't say floridians don't know what a real storm is like..It's ignorant and insulting
23, punta gorda is still rebuilding from Charley ! I'm 30 miles south of there and my yard hasn't been the same since. (trees blown down or stripped etc.)!
141. PBG00
Oh..and after going through those storms I would not stay for a major storm..The ones we had were bad enough..By the way 23 I can't imagine what that was like..I was scared enough through the second half of Wilma(wich was stonger in PB county Than broward)
something interesting I came across...Just before, Franklin, Gert, Harvey, Irene, Jose and Katrina, Dr. Jeff posted a similar blog "Shear Rules"
PPGOO, Wilma did a pretty good number here in Ft. Myers also. Finished off a couple of trees I was trying to bring back from Charley.
When the tropical waves in the eastern attlantic will have the favorable conditions to develop?

I live in Puerto Rico and I dont know if this year will be like 2005 when no storms was a threat for the NE Caribbean
Guys i was talking about my area south east florida.MIAMI AREA.

sorry i didnt include those details in my earlier message. adrian
refill in about 36-48 hors...They have a chance to develop between now and their journey upon until 75W
my intensions were not to get anyone upset....i was only tryin to make a comment on major hurricanes and my area.I to still have problem with my roof after wilma and katrina....i wish all u guys a safe recovery.
148. IKE
Weather456...that shear rules blog from last year. I see ST was being ST.

I'll keep an eye of the gulf this weekend. If nothing more, a moisture source will be making it into the SE with the deepening eastern US trough.

Shear values are forecast to stay favorable. A trough over the Florida peninsula now is forecast to get into the gulf within the next 48 hours.
Weather 456, any changes that one of this waves will represent a threat to the NE Caribbean, the Antilles or Puerto Rico???

Usually the time to be worried is from august through october but who knows... Thanks
i wanna know i guys thoughts on something...Ive seen several discussions on a possible el nino development in late september or october which will create unfavorable conditions threw out the year.

NOTE..We can still have a few nasty hurricanes occur with el nino .i just wanted to bring that point out.
And Ivan spawn upwards of 120 tornadoes here in Pensacola - and yes, we dealt with power outages for 3 weeks - longer in some areas, long lines for ice and thousands misplaced from their homes. Then Denis came ashore a year later! Now we are all dealing with Insurance rates that keep climbing after many of our insurance companies cancelled us or would not pay for repairs.
152. IKE
panhandle lady...im over here in Defuniak Springs. My homeowners insurance rates have gone thru the roof(no pun intended). Then again they all have in Florida.
IKE...stormtop never changed...

Refill, the waves are currently ebedded in an area of dust...you cant even see them...

But as they get closer to the middle caribbean chain...about Guadelope down to Barbados, they should increase in convectivity....they should enter the north- east caribbean sea...from there through the Caribbean into the gulf...but that is a week out...anything can happen between then...but no development until about 4-5 days when they reach the caribbean sea....
hurricane23, the national hurricane center clearly stated in there Hurricane season outlook, that and developing la nina and el nino will affect the EPAC but not the atlantic...

Another factor known to significantly impact Atlantic hurricane seasons is ENSO (Gray, 1984. El Nio favors fewer hurricanes and La Nia favors more hurricanes. Based on the most recent ENSO outlook issued by NOAAs Climate Prediction Center, ENSO-neutral conditions are expected in the tropical Pacific through much of the Atlantic hurricane season. Therefore, ENSO is not expected to impact this hurricane season.

LINK to MORE
also what have to me watch is east florida
did we kill the navy site its seen like it has not been updateing or some in
It's all caused by solar flares !
(just being crazy, everybody has a theory. thought I'd throw that one in there.)
Weather456 when we have a system like beryl form of a front like that in july typically it means we might not get far atlantic tropical activty.1997 was an example.It makes we wonder could this be a sign of a slow el nino coming.
In addition to tunnels ;-) I think we should make mountains ;-) all over the tropical Atlantic! Mountains are known to tremendously weaken hurricanes! These are known facts! Who cares about the environmental consequences! We could even cluster mountains and tunnels together! ;-) No more hurricanes to worry about ever! ;-)
What has happen MichealSTL?...i saw Taz's Blog
"Aint no mountin' high enough............"
Weather456 when we have a system like beryl form of a front like that in july typically it means we might not get far atlantic tropical activty.1997 was an example.It makes we wonder could this be a sign of a slow el nino coming.


No offense but, this is one in a string of baseless and franly idiotic statements on here. If you dont know what your talking about either do reseacrh or dont say anything at all. I know you made that up since its not scientifically accurate.
Someone talking about ants and hurricanes?

My mother always says when u see lots of ants travelling, a storm is nearby. Apparently people in the old days used to take this as one sign of potentially inclement weather. There does seem to be some type of increased sensitivity of animals in the face of storms.

If u see ants on your screen, though, the cause is probably quite unrelated to a hurricane in your neighbourhood . . . . lol
frankly*
Weather456 MichealSTL had a vary bad t-storm and he is with out power i hop that is all its been 20hrs now
hurricane, sorry but i dont know anything about that...But SST are showing a more La Nina-Nuetral conditions....

Another note: SST seems to be climbbing off Africa...
Ain't no tunnel low enough ... ;-)
excuse me turtle. I am really sorry. Like I have never read anything idiotic or baseless on this blog before !!!!!
Evening all

BH, several bloggers reported very large ant hills prior to Katrina.

This is our first year in the Miami area, this continuing growth of storms off the southern and east cost are no doupt normal how long does this tropical built up normally continue?
turtlehurricane first!!!! please respect me!Second this is a tropical forum and i am able to express my opinion if i choose to and last my knowledge on tropical Weather is very good and i can prove it very soon with my degree, iam not no kiddie searching infrared maps all day on vacation from school so please direct your disrespectful comments to someone else. .
Max Margules (1856-1920):

Forecasting is immoral and damaging to the character of a meteorologist.

Quoted here.
turtlehurricane first!!!! please respect me!Second this is a tropical forum and i am able to express my opinion if i choose to and last my knowledge on tropical Weather is very good and i can prove it very soon with my degree, iam not no kiddie searching infrared maps all day on vacation from school so please direct your disrespectful comments to someone else.
anyone up for a little dejavu:

Dust 2006


Dust 2005
both are July 20
456 dust is very typical and normal for july...
nice graphics 456....i expect things to change in mid august.
That's a pile of dust!

The first time I heard of Saharan dust was in the 1970's. A bunch made it all the way to south Louisiana. You could see it in the sky above, an odd brownish sort of color but you couldn't put your finger on what it was or exactly where.

The dust is more than dry air. It keeps sunlight from reaching the surface.
turtlehurricane first!!!! please respect me!Second this is a tropical forum and i am able to express my opinion if i choose to and last my knowledge on tropical Weather is very good and i can prove it very soon with my degree, iam not no kiddie searching infrared maps all day on vacation from school so please direct your disrespectful comments to someone else.

I did not disrespect you. You disrespected yourself by making false statements. Its not about opinion, you should know that. Prove what you said with data, then I will believe you. You cant of course since that was inference and a false statement at the same time.
papad...

It will continue through Nov for the official season. The most active time is mid october to late Sept. That is when the big ones are usually around. I would strongly suggest you spend some time getting to understand preparedness and other aspects of tropical land falling systems; you don't want to be trying to figure it out when you have one bearing down on you. There are some great preparedness pages here.
And in the images you post less powerful this year if it really matters.
Again it was only my opinion.....We will see whats going on when the reports come out in early august.
CORRECTION:

Most active period is from mid Aug. to mid to late Sept.
turtlehurricane, suppose someone was to tell you what you told hurricane23, many people on hear is only viewing opinions and that is the problem, when you dont agree with someone, instead of getting prove or reasoning, discussing too, you attack them....that is the same with STORMTOP, and the past 3 days without him was like he never left.......

I am too studing to become an expert meteorologist, but I just begun and hurricane23 almost finish, and i disagree with him on the La Nina/El nino issue and i did not attack him....
Comments like those that turtle directed to hurricane 23 are why so many people that might have a beneficial to this blog won't - they are slapped in the face verbally. I read this blog daily, for updates and to be educated about tropical weather. Absolutely uncalled for comment IMO. I have asked questions only to be totally ignored in the past so I keep my questions to myself for the most part anymore. But I really am floored that a supposedly educated person has to be so rude to someone else. There are others on here that come off the same way. I'm sorry, I just think people should think sometimes before they disrespect someone in such a blatant manner.
Last week of July!
If you guys think that was an attack you are extremely fragile and will fail in this world. ALL statements must be backed with data or be common understanding otherwise, they will be questioned. Now hurricane23, what is the data or do you have none?
I hate to correct someone, But mid August thru September is What I think was to be said. And from being here all my life The first good cold front that makes it this far south pretty much ends it. Unless it runs into Wilma. so what I am trying to say is some time in October. but that is not written in stone.
Sorry PHL....

Many of us will answer questions when we see them. I know I have asked many here and had them answered.
Cheff, Yes I posted the correction !)

195. IKE
Dang...New Englands not getting any rain out of Beryl. I got more rain here today in the Florida panhandle then anyone up there got off of Milton.

A fish storm.......
I appreciate that SJ. I know that there are so many posts that they can go unnoticed. And 9 times out of 10 somewhere along the way my question gets answered indirectly. If I have any ?'s in the future I won't hesitate to ask them. Sometimes it is a little intimidating to those not so "in the know". Thanks again!
Pretty dead out there tonight. The "Tunnels" would be making millions of kilo watts to off set coal and bunker "C" low sulfer oil and high sulfer oil.!!!

Write a full report on your blog about it, everything considered, then we'll decide about your idea. We cant help you though at all to promote it though.
198. IKE
Correction...New England is getting a few scattered showers..but that's about it.
ENSO update~ it's been a while & it comes out on monday, but ya'll look like ya'll could use one...
this is for the 4 different areas in the pacific where they measure sst in helping to determain if we're la nina, el nino or neutral. Orange mean warmer, blue colder.

credit NOAA
The average has to go above .5 or below -.5 to not be neutral & persist for 6? months to be offical. Hence our 3 months last winter wasn't offical la nina. Check the history. Last month we were truelly neutral with 0.0 & in a trend toward el nino.

Sure you can turtlehurricane. It is your duty to do so like it is mine.

I told you to make a report. I dont believe your idea.
hey evere one we got a new toy to play with

New Interactive Flash Tool you can find that with the D storm
Thanks Weather 456 you are very good in the topics.... and do not have any egos like other people in this blogg.........
you all have been a little testy in my absence - maybe because I haven't been here to pick on?

how about this ...is that a spin I see in the GOM?

Evening all! PHL, folks are really good at answering questions on this blog. (I know because I ask a lot!). If you've asked a question and it didn't get answered it is probably that folks are way into looking at images, etc. and your question slipped by them. Stand up and shout it out again ...at times you might be overlooked but never ignored. :-)
For who are interested in seeing a recent Isotherm map here it is.






& la nina and el nino have alot to do with the tradewinds (shear) in the Atlantic.
...or, it may have only been me watching the blog when you posted your question and trust me...you don't want me answering anything!

(although I do have a good recipe for mud slides if you are interested)
I am only kinda in the know PHL, but will try to help when I can.

Things can get a little hectic here sometimes, but seems to me that the barks are much worse then the bites :) jump on in any time.

Yes Ike, Berly dried up and lost steam pretty quickly there.
StormJunkie.com-Models, imagery, marine data, wind data, preparedness info and much more.

Night all
SJ
Panhandlelady, most people will try to answer your questions. there just happens to be some strong personalities on this blog that do not like their opinion (forecast) challenged.
thank you very much refill....anytime...

Note: the best way to forecast the tropics is not to go by your own forecast but to incoporate other people ideas and opinions
This is my first post here, I must say I have enjoyed reading most of the posts on here. I live in Pensacola and went thru Ivan in south Alabama having 3 trees land on my parents house. I have been obsessed with the weather ever since. I wish I had known about this site before Ivan, I would have been better prepared. What surprised me was after my parents went thru Camille in Buras, LA and lost everything they werent prepared at all for Ivan. All I heard before Ivan hit were comparisons of Ivan to Fredrick which we also went thru in south Alabama and had a few limbs down and power out for a few hours. Ivan was no where near being as mild as Fredrick. I just wanted to say Im glad I found this site and hope we don't get another bad storm, though a little rain right now wouldnt hurt LOL
lol Stormy :)

Ya'll have a good night.
Jebekarue, welcome.....
If you guys think that was an attack you are extremely fragile and will fail in this world.

I think the words you choose can make a reasonable request for proof into a rude insulting statement. Certainly calling someone an idiot and a liar have - literally - been fighting words in past years. And the "fragile" people of this world used to hold duels, and kill people, for similar words. So don't be surprised when people react the way they do; it's human nature.

ALL statements must be backed with data or be common understanding otherwise, they will be questioned. Now hurricane23, what is the data or do you have none?

Actually, this second statement is what u should have said in the first place. You sound less arrogant and are more likely to get the reply you want.
Welcome aboard Jeb, always good to have new folks.

Really got to get now :)
I wonder how many people who survived the brunt of Camille were unprepared for these more recent storms? Seems to me there weren't as many people on the MS coast as there could have been, and I'm sure the bulk of the old-timers got out of Dodge . . .
ok, whatever, he doesnt have evidence clearly and I was just tipped off he is lying about his degree.
Ive never been rude to anyone here...i enjoy everyone posts here as the main goal is to learn from each other not curse and disrespect each other like ive seen happen in this blog.
Totally unrelated (maybe on the weekend it will matter to us more :o)

Check out this system blasting through eastern CO and into KS . . . .

Link

Think it will be a player in next week's ATL tropical weather forecasts?
turtlehurricane NOW YOUR REALLY PISSING MY OFF!!!!!!!!!!!!!your calling me a liar?You know what grow up and learn to respect others if u want then to respect you.

It was from an extremely reliable source.
My parents evacuated for Camille into New Orleans on the West Bank and made it thru there fine. However most of my relatives who lived in New Orleans now lived there during Camille they did not evacuate for Katrina and we didnt hear from them for 6 weeks. Fortunatly everyone was ok, and suffered minor damage and no flooding. I hope they will be a little wiser IF another Katrina comes their way, praying that it doesnt.
Anyway...

Recon is up...Currently located 110 mi N of Fort Walton Beach, Florida.
Hey turtle and 23, any chance you could use WU mail for your personal debate as it serves no function here?

Just a suggestion

night all
Also looking at the NE Radar Link it seems that Nantucket and the Cape are going to get a bit more of a blow from Beryl than it at first appeared. The centre may indeed stay off shore, but it looks like quite a bit of the rain / wind will make it.
Ok, one last thing before I go to bed. I think the most interesting area over the next several days will be off the SE coast again. From the Fla waters up to the OBX. It is not likely that anything forms, but I am going to keep en eye on it for the next two to three days.

Really
Goodnight
SJ
Stormy2/Chef - Thanks. As I acknowledged in my post, my ?'s certainly could have been missed by the numerous post. No worries, I will certainly chime in again LOUDER! (LOL) if I have ?'s. Most people here seem to be on top of things and I am certainly learning alot. I appreciate all this blog has to offer. Thanks again.
Jeb,

I shudder to think what would have happened if Camille (or Katrina at cat 5!) would have done to NOL. Camille came nowhere near the Bahamas, but her name is still known here . . .

Cyclonebuster, I appreciate your idea, dont get me wrong. ITs just unfeasible and you know it. Enviromental impacts would be catastrophic.
Night all!!!!!, tomorrow is a next day...That developing El Nino issue, I have to ask Dr. Jeff to research it or look it up my self....

It would explain Bud and Daniel...

But something else that dont add up...wind shear is not high.....and even unsual, they are lower today than July 21, 2005.
Jebe - Pensacola here as well. I think all of us in this area learned alot from Ivan and will never forget. Welcome to an awsome/educational blog. I found out about it just before Ivan and have paid close attention to these guys ever since. Yes, we most certainly could use rain :)
Hey guys, I'm sorry if I came off a bit harsh. I am sick of lying and false statements in here though.
Thanks for the warm welcome, I do have a question
what are SST's and ULL's and how do they affect storm development.
I am weather stupid but I would like to know what to watch out for when a storm is brewing so I can better prepare. Thanks
Jebakarue, you're not stupid just new. We all were once.

SST= Sea Surface Temperature
ULL= Upper Level Low

How they affect storm development you'll have to ask one of the others. I don't understand that part well enough to explain it properly.
I just was reading a bit about Camille here: Link

This description "small intense storm" made me wonder about the correlation (if any exists) between hurricane size and intensity. A lot of what I read about Camille reminded me of Andrew (1992). They were both mid-August storms that developed quickly from depression to hurricane status; both were extremely powerful, compact, and fast-moving.
lying and false statements what is your problem guy?U know what whatever....

In august there will be some reports coming out from different agencies i'll be looking forward to those reports.Everyone has there own opinion on things in the tropics but you my point is you dont go out and call the person an idiot and liar and the bunch of stuff you have been sayin on here if i agree or not with your thoughts on something i would never point u out and call u an idiot or a liar thats something a kid would do.i would actually respect your opinion but thats it i would not attack u. adrian
turtle and 23. Maybe I can help you two through this arguement. First off el nino generally reduces storm formation in the Tropical Atlantic Basin by increasing wind shear over the south of 20 degree area. It doesn't seem to have an impact further north. Thats why when we had those El nino years we went through the time with no storm forming south of 20.
Now during those years we have tropical systems of nontropical origin developing at their normal pace. That is why 23 it seems that they are more pronounced during el nino year. There're not it is just that we notice them more.
Understandable Turtle....kudos to you for acknowledging and offering your apologies.
An ULL is an area of cold air aloft (20,000 to 30,000 feet) that is rotating counter-clockwise. These sometimes steer hurricanes and less frequently, transform into a warm core low and work their way down to the surface to become a tropical cyclone.
BahaHurican, each storm is different. In general, and man is this general, a storm will form and grow and develop an eye at about 75. If everything keeps going well the hurricane will continue to intensify and the eye will contract. Sometime around 115+(we use to think it was higher but now we know its not)an outer eyewall will form. This cuts off flow to the eye and the system goes through a weakening phase as the outer eyewall strengthens and then contracts.
Now to your question.Some storms end up with a really tiny eye(see wilma) and are intense for a brief time. Other storms, (for reasons poorly understood)don't do this and end up with 30mi eye(or larger) at cat 5 that jsut stays. These are the worst, because tend to have a longer time of 5 winds and tend to be larger with a larger area of impact(see katrina,carla). However, if you hit the smaller ones(say camille or andrew) at the wrong time OUCH.
Posted By: turtlehurricane at 2:10 AM GMT on July 21, 2006.
Hey guys, I'm sorry if I came off a bit harsh. I am sick of lying and false statements in here though.

Turtle - I really dont think people are maliciously lying in here, but if you spot some inadvertent false statements please just correct them and cite your sources. I guarantee you that this tactic will force better quality discussion on this blog.

So you are an undergraduate or graduate Met or Atmospheric Sciences student with an internship at the NHC? Then you should know the best way to fight false information is with sound scientific evidence, "ground-truth" observations, and good citations to the scientific literature. Just speaking from a perceived position of authority is not convincing.

I am behind your efforts to improve the quality of discourse here.

Peace!
BTW in the explaination earlier I skipped over the inner eyewall collaspes and weakneing occurs. sorry if that lead to confusion.
Thanks guygee, I agree, i just was a little short circuited earlier. I will squish them with data next time around ;)
For those who missed it earlier,


Hurricane Warning

Since Beryl is approaching New England and the northeast now I have taken all available data up to 8 pm and have made an impacts analysis of Beryl on Hurricane Warning. This will provide information on what can be expected from Beryl as it goes by including a wind, rain, wave, and storm surge forecast. I have also included all the latest information on forecast path and intensity in the update. This is a new update and builds upon the 1 pm update.
cyclonebuster, frank is a good pal of mine. I highly doubt he would believe that, I have talked science with him many times.
we'll guygee iam also about to get my degree in meteorology but no matter what your knowlegde is its never right to be rude and disrespectful towards a person because you dont agree with the persons thoughts.We are all here to learn from each other. adrian
254. code1
Be cool turtle m'friend. This years turmoil in here is no different than last years. Just new bloggers all trying to learn the same. You have enough knowledge to impart, and help all to learn. Do it the right way and smile, you're on candid camera!!! lol
Have a great night all, and God be with those in the St. Louis area.
SOI IndexSouthern Oscillation Index
ENSO WRAP-UP
CURRENT STATUS as at 12th July 2006
Next update expected by 26th July 2006 (two weeks after this update).
Summary: A persistence of neutral ENSO conditions

The overall ENSO status remains neutral. Generally weak trends have been observed in the main Pacific climate indicators during the past few weeks, and the potential for an El Nio event to develop this year is still relatively low.

The main concern remains the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), which is hovering around the −10 mark, indicating a general weakness in the Pacific Walker Circulation. There has also been some weakening in the Trade Winds in the last week, so this situation will be monitored closely for any sustained trends. However, ocean temperatures are only marginally above average, both on and below the surface, so there is only a slight risk that the Pacific will warm to levels high enough for an El Nio event to develop.

Most of the ENSO prediction models surveyed at the end of June showed a continuation of neutral conditions, although on the warm side of normal. Some updated model runs since then, indicate an increased likelihood of the Pacific warming to El Nio levels. However, a sustained warming beginning in July or August would be unusual, given that ENSO events typically begin to evolve between March and June.
TX,

I have a fairly good idea of how hurricanes (in general) work. I am more interested in whether any study of the available data suggests that smaller hurricanes (I mean smaller in diameter) tend to be more intense (in terms of max. wind speeds) than their larger counterparts. That's why I drew attention to the parallels between Camille and Andrew.

YEah code, your right. Have a goodnight :)

That was a huge thunderstorm in st.louis.
258. code1
:-) Good night!
TX,

I have a fairly good idea of how hurricanes (in general) work. I am more interested in whether any study of the available data suggests that smaller hurricanes (I mean smaller in diameter) tend to be more intense (in terms of max. wind speeds) than their larger counterparts. That's why I drew attention to the parallels between Camille and Andrew.


Small hurricanes get stronger much faster. Bigger hurricanes however tend to peak out much higher in the right conditions. Remember typhoon tp, biggest and strongest tropical cyclone ever.
hurricane23 - That is the point I was trying to get across, as gently as possible. Ad hominem attacks serve no purpose: just discuss the facts and your interpretations of them in an impersonal way.

I always like to see papers written in the third person, I never was in favor of the "I me mine" trend we saw for awhile.
God forbid we have a semi-normal Hurricane season. I can't wait to see what this place is like when we get our first major.
ProgressivePulse - No worries, the server will be overwhelmed ;(
I was noticing that at the height of Beryl Guygee!
Seriously, they need to get more servers. Its needed for thier business.
Daniel looks like Emily a bit with that wobble not so circular look Still with the Big eye and the eyes also look alike
The GFS/NAM/CMC/ is hinting at some vorticity off the coast of Florida within the next 72 Hours. In fact the NAM develops a closed low and moves out into the open Atlantic.

00Z NAM

18Z GFS 850mb Vorticity

12Z CMC 850mb Vorticity

Let's see what happens in the 00Z model runs...






Progressive - Exactly, "mighty" Beryl at its peak was putting a real strain on this site, I had to reload several times to avoid getting errors and bad connections. Think back to the night last year when Katrina transitioned from banded "serpentine" to an annular storm. I stayed up all night watching, mostly lurking if I recall correctly. But last years incredible season has brought many more people here, maybe increasing by a factor of ten based on the number of daily posts.

I think wunderground better spring for some more blade servers, or whatever it is they are using...
It would be a good investment for the site and I would be happy to donate, as would others I am sure.
Hurricane 23,
Tom Terry mentioned on WFTV Channel 9 in Orlando about a low level trough near Andros and to watch it, he was the only one to mention it that I've seen in Orlando, but hes pretty much on target.
Hate to have this site go down as a major is approaching the mainland
Had to do that didn't ya 23 lol. Nam has been pretty darn good early on this year predicting formation.
hurricane23, interesting observation but the windshear would probably hammer away at any large-scale development possibility from that weak low off Fla IMO only of course:) Speaking of windshear, how about the Caribbean this year! Wow, is that normal for it (windshear) to be THAT persistent and that strong for as many weeks in-a-row as it has been? If so, when does it typically die down? Thanx all.
Hey 23! Thanks again for your recon updates the past couple of days!
Usually about now Little fish, and it is.
No problem guys i just want us all to be able to get along and be able to have a good time here and to learn from each other.thanks again for the comments.
Also littlefish I think alot of people have last year on the brain. Analyize the 04 season for some similarity.
"hinting at some vorticity off the coast of Florida within the next 72 Hours"

23 would you mind defining vorticity for this newbie?

Also, someone posted a link to a meterology dictionary-type resource a few days ago but I cannot find it again. Anyone?

Thanks!
guygee...your comments are consistently beneficial to this site both educationally and relationally - seeing as we are all people behind these posts, I'm using that word. Thanks.

And, yes, I'm back at work regardless of the hour and I suspect you are too as we keep WU low on the screen. However, I will admit, my java-juice has transformed into something a little more relaxing by this point. Ha!
FLAnative

Its a measure of the amount of spin (or rotation) in the atmosphere.
23, Ok thanks.
Now, I've heard various views in here on "spin" it seems at certain levels it is irrelevant and at other levels significant. Do you wish to elaborate? For instance, sometimes I look at areas and I see "spin" and then I read posts saying that is not at surface, for instance. Do so appreciate your lending your expertise.
FLAnative

Stop by my page i have some useful links that might help.
littlefish, wind shear is very low...
The Nam shows a very shallow system developing just off the cuban coast FLAnative. Traveling NE over the Bahamas. This is the first run showing it, have to see what tomorrow says.
Thanks, 23, good stuff.

Yep, Thanks, PP been looking at something like that coming along....have to see

Also noted that the NAM has forcast Alberto and Beryl early on when none of the others had a clue.
Guys here this is what iam seeing....watch the loop...notice the monster in the pacfic!


Your welcome FLA
Hurricane23~ was noticing the Pacific, not only the NAM but the GFS looked real active over there too.

I thought the cmc was onto Alberto 1st.

292. SpyRI
there is nothing going on here with Beryl. A little windy, a few showers, that's it.
Great chart skye, thanks!
That's a very interesting graphic, h23. I notice that the system currently coming off the Rockies is supposed to be a big player in this scenario. Why would they all head north? Is it suggesting a strong Bermuda high forming by about Monday?
I think I have looked at the CMC maybe 2 times this year, it may have. Everytime I have looked at the CMC it is wrong so I don't use it.
That is good news SpyRI
297. SpyRI
Thanks ProgressivePulse, it is good news! Earlier the wind was picking up a lot, but now it's just 14 mph and that's not bad at all!
I was checkin out the Goes east WV image.

Guygee~ That ULL we were talkin about the days ago did just like we said:) Looks to be heading out of here as a nonissue.

As for something developing off FL... I think we'll be watching it but won't ever amount to much. That ULL leaving might help to fire something up but there is alot of dry, dust air coming in from the east after that (refure to the tan/brown areas in the link above) & shouldn't be too long til another trough comes along, impeeding anything around there that might develope.
PP, I follow the NAM like you follow the cmc. Guess they are both better at seeing one form than tracking it. Anyone care to check Dr Masters blog, before Alberto, to see which one had it 1st? It would settle this highly explosive arguement we're having. lol

SpyRI~ Thanks for the observations you've brought us today. I enjoyed your pics.
This will be a player next week (Wave just off Africa)
I feel the tension skye! Wanna Box, lol.
304. SpyRI
Thanks Skyepony! I wish I were a better photographer. When I went back to the jetty later the waves were much bigger but I couldn't get a nice pic.
Well, looks like NE got lucky tonight. Hope that good luck lasts and spreads south too! After last year, I don't really look forward to hurricane season like I used to. (But still read this blog every day to keep up!)
Nam is terrible once a system develops, but days before the NAM was looking at both Alberto and Beryl. Toss the NAM out the window once a storm develops.
Just use Beryl as an OK this CAN happen storm.
Given the past 2 storms I agree JP, it deserves a look.
It will limit activity for a bit, you notice these waves are getting stronger and stronger. This is the first to have a low coming off the coast. 30W is the mark, have to see what comes of it.
I didn't see the last link you posted, but by your reaction it is less impressive.
Difference is JP, this wave is much better organized with a low (Low is Disipating). The wave earlier in the week made it to just about 30W before loosing sight without a low of the coast. It will be interesting to see what comes of this wave. I do think it will be a player next week.
00ZGFS is hinting something from this wave
Actually shows an organized system approacing the antillies @ 144
PP~ lol, bring it on:) I do agree with ya on these 2 models.

Well Beryl is gonna have to take a little jog north to nick Mass. Been calling for it to for 2 days now. Afraid once again, real close, but not exact.

Almost forgot to mention~ waterspout at KSC today. There's a pic in my blog of it. For the newbies~ You can click on my name at the top of this comment to get to my blog.

Great seeing some of our long time lurkers out today...

Nite
You see the 00ZGFS Skye?
Dissipating system approacing the antillies 14 years ago.
Almost erie, the GFS also has the high building in across FLA at the 144 mark.
Hello, everyone. I'm a new member of Weather Underground, but a long time reader. I've been posting every now and then and I just posted a new topic on a possible increase in tropical activity. Feel free to drop by and discuss some tropical news with me and whoever else decides to drop by. Thanks for stopping by and thanks to those of you who provide graphics to look at. They are very helpful!
Well....it's bye bye Beryl.....
From Middletown RI... highest wind gust 19 mph
Rain total .04".....the Thunderstorms on this past Tues night were MUCH more impressive ....not to mention ...pretty damn severe..............................
Mike
looks like a wave that came out of africa a few days ago has finaly left the shear behind and is begining to re-fire
The NAM is not to be trusted for hurricane development. Ignore it. I posted a link on this previously, but don't have it on me now.
Morning all.

Running late for work, so I have not gotten a chance to check the models yet. Hope to in a little while. Also should have the SST maps in my blog updated later.

StormJunkie.com-Models, imagery, marine data, wind data, preparedness info and much more.

Ya'll have a great day.
SJ
Good Morning All! Winds from the SE at 10, 79 and climbing, clear skies, pressure rising, humidity dropping.

Sky - nice waterspout picture. I'm impressed because spouts don't often last for more than a couple minutes. I've seen several but never been able to get a picture.

hey guys just a thought that entered my mind... how do you think the volcano at monserat affects tropical systems...i ask this because here in PR for the last year monserat has been a little more active and spitting ash, when the winds are just right the ash mixes with the rain and gets carried by the winds and well everytime it rains i have to wash my car (the same thing happens with african dust it gets annoying)i just wonder what that ash would do to forming tropical systems
Posted By: mrpuertorico at 6:29 AM AST on July 21, 2006.
looks like a wave that came out of africa a few days ago has finaly left the shear behind and is begining to re-fire


As I predicted.....
mrpuertorico.....Have you noticed any form of higher intensity thunder storms while in a period of high dust? Like more and intense lightning storms?
Hey guys, did Beryl technically make a landfall on Nantucket?
yeah weather456 now we have to see if it wins out the dust and dry air
Good Morning all!!!!

mrpuertorico, African dust can cover a tropical system and kill it....the plumes from the island is only a string of plume cant affect any system....as Emily pass the islands last July about the same time monsterrat had an ash eruption
well randrewl ill keep an eye out next time ash approaches ussualy we do get some bad rain when ash comes through also about a year ago i one strong surge of ash came through and i was able to smell sulfur in the rain!
yeah weather456 i know about how dust kills weather systems i wasn't sure about the ash though i never seen a discussion of lest say a hurricane going over monserat and say gathering large amounts of ash into its cloads like some of the tropical waves do and diposite it further up stream so to speak like say my house :( any hoot thanks for the answers guys i am really late for work see ya happy blogging
Anybody else find it ironic that the suppermarket tabloids have been predicting the destruction of New York by a major hurrincane the last few months and now the first storm of the year to hit land does so in New England. Has that ever happened before?

THE BEST INVESTIGATIVE REPORTING ON THE PLANET, I TELL YA.
i just want to say one thing, and its not weather related.....

a 15yr old kid, as a first time poster, should receive JUST AS MUCH respect as somebody who has been on this board for years and has a MET degree......

at one point or another, we have all lost our cool in this blog.... but it so takes away from what makes this blog so great..... which is all the knowledge......

when crossed with inaccuracies concerning weather, you can certainly have disagreement.... it would seem to me that reasonable people can agree to disagree, and let the facts sort themselves out.

and when crossed by idiots, just be polite.....it's fine to curse them under your breath..... lets just keep this blog great....make observations, throw out data, make predictions....it's all good.... you are thinking.....

lets leave the pesonal attacks out of this blog! ;)

{ps - somebody restrain me the next ime i loose my cool! LOL )
339. PBG00
No reason to even bring that up thel..nobody was even talking about it..for once..people were just talkin weather.
340. PBG00
Which coast of fla are we watchin?
Hey guys just wanted to say good morning and hope everyone has a nice day....iam at work so i'll be on later. adrian
342. PBG00
Have a great day 23!
Stormy here today? Her little friend in the middle of the GOM is still moving about - but it ISN'T spinning...really...it isn't... has anyone noticed that day after day after day, it comes back? I guess when she gets out of therapy, she can come back and take a look at it.
Morning all.

PB, I don't think thel was referencing anyone incident. MOre just making a point about haow we can all help keep this blog on track.

Well said thel.

As for the tropics, I think the E coast from S Fla to the OBX should be watched over the weekend for development. This is not likely, but something to keep an eye on, along with 456's wave.

SJ
Weather456...Can you provide the coordinates of your wave? Thanks.
456, thanx for the wind shear link. Does that come off NOAA? It still looks like the wind shear in the western Caribbean is still fairly prominent. But it does look to be waning a bit finally. Another vigorous wave off Africa, huh! I too think the dust will mess with it, but the dust looks to be settling down. The little low between Cuba and Fla IMO is over water that is not as warm as last year and not as favorable for dvlpmnt, but it is 80 degrees F. Don't think it'll suddenly flare up though. Have a good one all! Lots of knowledge and decent discussion here.
dr. jeff has new blog and randrewl, i post a pic with the wave

the wind shear image isnt from noaa
mrpuertorico~ Tropical Waves and Volcanic Ash Microscopy & in your area too:)

I gotta run, I Googled it, found that on page 3. Here's the link if ya want to look for more.

Glad ya'll are liking that waterspout pic so much, guess it's like a fish storm...guilt-free.
The Dr has a new blog up

Morning fish
I'm a new member who has been reading blogs here for a year or two. I'm completely fascinated with tropical weather and have enjoyed reading and learning on this forum. My husband and I are going to Eleuthera, Bahamas from July 29-August 5th. I was wondering if anyone cared to share any thoughts and information on tropical activity for the bahamas during this time period? We've had several vacations cancelled due to tropical weather and I'm keeping my fingers crossed that this year will be the exception! Thanks in advance!