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Beryl makes landfall, weakens to a tropical depression

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:47 PM GMT on May 28, 2012

Tropical Storm Beryl lumbered ashore near Jacksonville Beach, Florida at 12:10 am this Memorial Day as an intensifying tropical storm with 70 mph winds. Beryl is only the second named storm to hit on a Memorial Day weekend in the U.S. (the three-day weekend was established in 1971.) The other was Subtropical Storm Alpha of 1972, which followed a path almost identical to Beryl's and made landfall as a 60 mph subtropical storm. Beryl's 70 mph winds at landfall make it the strongest landfalling May tropical cyclone since the May 29, 1908 hurricane, which had 75 mph winds when it brought tropical storm-force winds to the Outer Banks of North Carolina.


Figure 1. True-color MODIS satellite image of Beryl taken at 2:35 pm EDT May 27, 2012 by NASA's Aqua satellite. At the time, Beryl was a tropical storm with winds of 65 mph.

Damage from Beryl has been mostly minor, with reports of street flooding, trees down, one house with a roof torn off, and power outages to 25,000 people in the Jacksonville, Florida area. One swimmer is missing from Folly Beach, South Carolina, and lifeguards performed dozens of rescues along the Southeast U.S. coast over the weekend due to rip currents generated by Beryl's rough surf. A tornado warning was issued near 10:30 am EDT this morning for the region near the coast to the east of Jacksonville, and Beryl's spiral bands could produce rotating thunderstorms that will trigger more tornado warnings today. A few of the top winds generated by Beryl over the past day:

Mayport, Florida: 47 mph, gusting to 62 mph (11:10 pm Sunday night)
Buck Island, St. Johns River: wind gust of 73 mph (10:35 pm Sunday night)
Huguenot Park: 54 mph, gusting to 63 mph
Jacksonville Naval Air Station: 37 mph, gusting to 48 mph
Brunswick, GA: 31 mph, gusting to 45 mph
Buoy 41012, 46 miles ENE of St. Augustine: 47 mph, gusting to 58 mph


Figure 2. Estimated rainfall from Beryl from the radar out of Jacksonville, FL.

Forecast for Beryl
Beryl has weakened to a tropical depression, but will continue to spin and dump copious rains as it slowly treks through northern Florida, Southern Georgia, and coastal South Carolina Monday and Tuesday. Radar-estimated rainfall amounts as of Monday morning were generally 1 - 4 inches in Northern Florida and Southern Georgia, with a few regions of 4+ inches. Flooding due to heavy rains is probably not a huge concern with this storm, since the Southeast U.S. coast is under moderate to exceptional drought. The 4 - 8 inches of rain expected from Beryl will provide significant drought relief in Florida and Georgia, which are suffering rainfall deficits of 9 - 12 inches (Figure 3.) When Beryl pops off the coast of South Carolina or North Carolina on Wednesday, the storm will probably be moving fast enough that it won't have time to generate enough rain to cause serious flooding problems in those states.


Figure 3. Much of the Southeast U.S. needs 9 - 12 inches of rain (red colors) to bust the current drought. A drought is defined as "busted" when the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) goes higher than -0.5. Image credit: NOAA.

July-like heat wave continues over much of the U.S.
A strong high pressure system anchored over the central U.S. brought more record-smashing May heat to much of the country on Sunday. The heat was most notable in Indiana, where both South Bend (97°F) and Fort Wayne (96°F) set records for their hottest temperature ever recorded in May. Rockford, Illinois (99°) and Chicago (97°) both had their hottest temperature on record so early in the year. On Saturday, at least nine airports in the Midwest had their hottest May day on record, and 58 out of 456 U.S. airports set daily high temperature records. A compensating sharp dip in the jet stream allowed three airports in the Western U.S. to set daily coldest temperature records on Saturday. Numerous all-time May heat records will be threatened in the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley today, where temperatures 15 - 20°F above average are expected.

Jeff Masters
Jax Beach Pier pre-Beryl
Jax Beach Pier pre-Beryl
Tropical Storm Beryl
Tropical Storm Beryl
Pouring on Palm Bay.

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting SFLWeatherman:
The new HPC Forecasts what is going on in S FL???


the Nogaps was showing a Low crossing south florida and developing off the SE coast
Im wondering if that strong band in the Gulf will rotate into Pinellas county
Fukushima bluefin cross the Pacific to California and Mexico.

ClimateChange giveth, and it taketh away: the rise and fall of the Harrapan civilization
And a to Grothar for bringing up ClimateChange circa 5200BP (years before presentday)
504. skook
Quoting BahaHurican:
What, only 493 posts????

LOL

But SERiously....

Weather in Nassau today was great... no rain... brisk breezes.... great sun... I'm liking it for now... no 90s as yet, God is good...

Let's see how long it can last...

Actually, Bahamians are fond of referring to the entire state of Florida as "Miami".... "going to Miami" could mean Miami, Ft. Lauderdale, West Palm Beach, Orlando, Tampa, and even, God forbid, Jax....

LOL. I have had Jamaicans ask me how far it is from Miami to Florida and noway nohow can I get them to understand that Miami is IN Florida.
anyone else thinking we are in for a wild year?
this is a satellite picture of Hurricane Eloise approaching Florida. It was a particularly vicious hurricane.atellite image of Hurricane Eloise (1975) in the Gulf of Mexico on September 22, 1975.Damage in the Florida Panhandle from Hurricane Eloise, a Category 3 tropical cyclone.

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
927 PM EDT MON MAY 28 2012

...VALID 03Z TUE MAY 29 2012 - 00Z WED MAY 30 2012...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
25 SSW VLD 15 E MGR 30 W DQH 25 SE EZM 25 NNE VDI 20 WNW SAV
25 SE SVN 25 SE SSI 10 NNW SGJ 30 ENE OCF 15 WSW BKV 70 WNW PIE
65 WSW CTY 30 SW 40J 25 SSW VLD.

TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF FIVE INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE TO THE
RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SW CTY 20 S 40J 30 E 40J 35 ESE VLD
15 SSE AYS 20 NW JAX 10 S VQQ 15 W OCF 35 WNW BKV 55 SSW CTY
45 SW CTY.


...NRN FL/SERN GA..

BERYL IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY BEGIN TO DRIFT NWD OVERNIGHT ACRS SRN
GA THEN TURN MORE NEWD TOWARD ERN SC BY LATE TUES... AS THE
WESTERLIES COME INTO THE LARGE SCALE PICTURE. BEFORE THEN... THE
POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN FOR VERY HEAVY RAINFALL... ESPECIALLY OVER
PARTS OF NRN FL INTO SERN GA. THE PRIME QUADRANT APPEARS TO BE ON
THE ERN AND SRN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM VIA RADAR AND ALSO TAKING INTO
ACCOUNT INFLUX OF ATL/ERN GULF MSTR WITH POSSIBLE NOCTURNAL
ENHANCEMENT... TYPICALLY NEAR THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM... THAT
THIS LOCALE COULD VERY WELL SEE STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO
10 INCHES WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS. THE ISO HIGHER AMOUNTS
COULD APPROACH 12 TO 15 INCHES IN SOME OF THE MORE CONCENTRATED
AND PERSISTENT HEAVY TROPICAL RAIN BANDS. INTERNAL CLIMO RAINFALL
GUIDANCE BASED ON A TROPICAL SYSTEM TAKING A SIMILAR TRACK/PATH TO
BERYL... IE DORA FROM THE 60S DESPITE IT BEING STRONGER AND MORE
FAVORABLE PART OF THE SEASON... SUGGESTS POSSIBLE ISO MAXIMUM
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS SURPASSING 15 INCHES.


MUSHER
Everyone stay safe out there while dealing with this slow moving pain in the rear.
Quoting Buhdog:
anyone else thinking we are in for a wild year?
Affirmative..
Quoting aspectre:
"http://phys.org/news/2012-05-radioactive-blu efin-tuna-pacific.html"


Too bad, Will have to eliminate fish from my diet starting in 2013..... Unless I buy a good GCounter....

Valdosta Ga. Nexad Accum. Precip Radar from WU

Quoting stormwatcherCI:
LOL. I have had Jamaicans ask me how far it is from Miami to Florida and noway nohow can I get them to understand that Miami is IN Florida.
LOL... I never go to Miami myself if I can help it... it's nice place to visit, but I wouldn't want to go there... lol

Seriously, this business of Miami being FL comes from the fact that most pple who go to the US regularly, and especially as children, go through Miami. After a while the city begins to represent the entire state. This is especially logical since there really is no break in the metroplex until u get out of Palm Beach county. Somebody with weak geography can be easily fooled...
Quoting Hurricanes101:
Im wondering if that strong band in the Gulf will rotate into Pinellas county



That's a Heavy Band with Rainfall Rates of 2+ inches an hour
Quoting pcola57:


Did you get your rain band yet?
Pathetic rain totals in central GA so far. Looks like D4 drought will be here to stay. I see the southern part of the storm is dumping quite nice totals, however. North florida should be receiving very beneficial rains form Beryl, so at least some regions of the drought should be getting much-needed rain.
Quoting BrickellBreeze:


Did you get your rain band yet?


Nada..zip.. :(
Quoting CybrTeddy:


This will not develop, there is no surface pressures falling at this time and no model support. This is nothing more than divergence being setoff in a very high shear environment from a upper level trough over the Caribbean. Chances of development is ~1%.
Like you say it probably won`t develop but there is always a little chance remember what everyone was saying about Beryl the less than 1% you are giving it could be enough to watch remember that the Caribbean is a place to watch this season.
Quoting HurricaneSwirl:
Pathetic rain totals in central GA so far. Looks like D4 drought will be here to stay. I see the southern part of the storm is dumping quite nice totals, however. North florida should be receiving very beneficial rains form Beryl, so at least some regions of the drought should be getting much-needed rain.


It is moving NNW, the rain is coming, just wait.
Link

IR loop of our 2 main interests...
Quoting pcola57:


Rainfall Rates of 4 Inches on that Rain Band west of Ocala
506 Buhdog: anyone else thinking we are in for a wild year?

This is pathetic. Here it is late May, and not a single Atlantic or EastPacific TropicalCyclone to track.
Not even a decent Invest.
Quoting Grothar:



The Impaler. Why, yes
The alleged impaler.
It was never proven in court.
524. wxmod
Quoting sunlinepr:



Africa dust will suppress lapse rate off the coast of Africa unless the low is very low! in which case the USA gets a mud hurricane.

Let the TWO tone talks begin!!!!!!!
Quoting aspectre:
506 Buhdog: anyone else thinking we are in for a wild year?

This is pathetic. Here it is late May, and not a single Atlantic or EastPacific TropicalCyclone to track.
Not even a decent Invest.
I agree with Buhdog.... we're already in a wild year, and I suggest you, sire aspectre, look to the southern caribbean and the ATL east of the Antilles for your next two named storms.... BEFORE 31st May, at that... how dare you suggest nothing is there to track?!?!?!

Quoting BrickellBreeze:


Rainfall Rates of 4 Inches on that Rain Band west of Ocala


I agree..
But I'm in Pensacola (LA..Lower Alabama)100 miles East of Mobile Ala....My chances are are slim to none with this one.. :(
oh s---
0645 PM HEAVY RAIN 7 NE BRANFORD 30.03N 82.84W
05/28/2012 M6.00 INCH SUWANNEE FL BROADCAST MEDIA

RAINFALL TOTAL MEASURED AT 6 INCHES.
Quoting Grothar:


Find something easier. The only ones whoever read a dissertation will be the committee anyway. Save yourself the aggravation.



Any university with a meteorology or atmospheric sciences department does research on NWP. Hot topics include surface modeling, coupled hydro-meteorological models, "seamless environmental prediction", down-scaled weather and climate models, and automation methods; some specialize in nowcasting, warning methods and radar. NCEP in the US and the Meteorological Service in Canada do weather and climate research in house but do hire post-Docs.
Quoting K8eCane:
oh s---


What?
Six Inches rainfall rates now in that band west of Ocala.
There is one rogue severe thunderstorm in upstate ny tonight. It formed near utica and is now near the great sacandaga lake. It's about 20 miles away but I just heard a huge rumble.
Quoting CosmicEvents:
The alleged impaler.
It was never proven in court.


All you had to do is look in his backyard
im still not buying el nino. the pdo is still negative and the only thing showing proof of el nino would be the sst anamolies below the surface. as of now im still calling a warm sided neutral
NWS Director Retires over investigation of funding

...well, why do you think the NWS was trying to get more money...?
Wow,what a plunge of the NAO forecast for the next couple of weeks that for sure will help warm the waters in the MDR and Central Atlantic.

.
Quoting Progster:


Any university with a meteorology or atmospheric sciences department does research on NWP. Hot topics include surface modeling, coupled hydro-meteorological models, "seamless environmental prediction", down-scaled weather and climate models, and automation methods; some specialize in nowcasting, warning methods and radar. NCEP in the US and the Meteorological Service in Canada do weather and climate research in house but do hire post-Docs.


Interesting. I noticed that at the few universities at which I taught. I was just teasing the young man.
Quoting aspectre:
Fukushima bluefin cross the Pacific to California and Mexico.

ClimateChange giveth, and it taketh away: the rise and fall of the Harrapan civilization
And a to Grothar for bringing up ClimateChange circa 5200BP (years before presentday)



I just saw that! That is why I always get a little chuckle when one writes that reliable records only go back to 1851. HA Could I tell them some stories.
Quoting Buhdog:
anyone else thinking we are in for a wild year?


Yes, I believe they have underestimated it. The June report should be coming out soon.
Well, last year we didn't have the chance of scattered showers so I guess that's progress. :)


Rain on the horizon

Forecast Discussion

Dry weather expected through Wednesday.

High pressure aloft then breaks down allowing a cold front to move into the area Friday Morning. Ahead of the front, scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected with rain lasting through Friday Morning.

Don't blink, this is a very weak front and it will be gone before you know it.

Warming back up and drying out over the weekend.

Upper-level high pressure rebuilds over the area by next Monday.
I find the story about the NWS sad, and, as Ms. Snowe said, "rather troubling". What bothers me most is that there is obviously a climate within the organization, at least at the upper levels, which dictates that it's better to misappropriate funds than admit the budget is misallocated. One gets the impression of a management team that doesn't trust Congress to sufficiently allocate funds for what it sees are the "real" needs of NWS and therefore encourages allocations in areas where it feels Congress is willing to spend. A oversimplified hypothetical example: Congress is gung-ho on new technology, so tell it a million dollars is needed to implement, say, new doppler radars. Then spend 1/4 of that money on field office expenses, since the dopplers only cost 3/4 million to begin with.

If this is what's been going on, and it does sound like that's what's been happening, that's a pretty scary story to be hearing.
Quoting yqt1001:


I believe that NHC didn't have strict tropical cyclone classification as it does now so more storms are included. I'm not sure but there was definitely not 200 TDs in the 70s. :P

Could that be tropical disturbances? That was a term in common usage back then.
Good evening all...i miss the strengthening and impact of Beryl
What else did i miss?
**11:00PM ADVISORY**
(click to enlarge)
Developing squall line in the gulf, or the outer band. Let's hope that holds and swings into Tampa Bay overnight into the morning!

Interesting to note, in the short term, Beryl's center is actually drifting southeast on radar, lol
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Wow,what a plunge of the NAO forecast for the next couple of weeks that for sure will help warm the waters in the MDR and Central Atlantic.

.

Yes indeed...what's up Tropics?
goooooooooooooooooooooodnight everyone
Quoting sunlinepr:


Too bad, Will have to eliminate fish from my diet starting in 2013..... Unless I buy a good GCounter....


Is that a weak surface trough in the western Caribbean?
Quoting nigel20:

Is that a weak surface trough in the western Caribbean?

now yes it is
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

now yes it is

Thanks wunderkid!
Quoting WxGeekVA:
goooooooooooooooooooooodnight everyone

Same to you Geek
sup Nigel
Flood Watch for Citrus County! The rains are "Training" over the same spots. Also small stream flood advisory.

Link

Quoting PedleyCA:
sup Nigel

I'm good...how are you doing pedley?
559. BtnTx
It is absolutely gorgeous green all around the Baytown area. The vegetation amazingly bounced back from the drought. I fear we are going back to drought mode. How is it your way AtHomeInTX?

Also how is it in Central Texas to wu bloggers out there?
Quoting nigel20:

I'm good...how are you doing pedley?


Doing alright 86.6 here today.
Quoting PedleyCA:


Doing alright 86.6 here today.

Just as warm as the caribbean
Well, this to call it a night. To all those near Beryl, Stay Safe. Good Night All, Sleep Well.
by the way Floater is up for the W caribbean system



also the caribbean system has model support with the WRF and the MM5 on board also GFS shows the area as moisture and a surface trough moving into the SE GOM and S Fl also to note the (non tropical) NAM is on board

Quoting PedleyCA:
Well, this to call it a night. To all those near Beryl, Stay Safe. Good Night All, Sleep Well.
Same to you...I'm off  as well

Quoting BtnTx:
It is absolutely gorgeous green all around the Baytown area. The vegetation amazingly bounced back from the drought. I fear we are going back to drought mode. How is it your way AtHomeIn Texas?


Still green around here too. Hoping we don't go back to drought conditions. Were some grass fires up in east Tx. So far so good here. Still makes me nervous when I read "Ridge" in every discussion.
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Flood Watch for Citrus County! The rains are "Training" over the same spots. Also small stream flood advisory.

Link



That line is starting to look good for us, you often need a long strong line line that to break through these stubborn lack if rain situations, they tend to creat lift ahead of them allowing them to perpetuate.


Of course, given the lack of expected rain throughout the day I wouldn't count on this bringing us good rain, but it is at least SOME hope, lol.


It certainly has a lot of CAPE in the eastern gulf just west of Tampa to feed off of, and high moisture with PWAT's near 2 inches, there is obviously a vorticity maximum with this line, we have to hope then all those things give us a chance to get some overnight into the morning.


As slow as that line is progressing, if it holds as it looks now it would easily give us all at least a couple inches given the higher tropical rain rates with such activity.


I'm not counting on it but it looks better than anything we've had a chance at all day and night.


There is actually a lot of lightning with that activity, probably because they are very tall cells and considering all the buildup of energy all day with such little rain in the gulf.
Quoting hydrus:
this is a satellite picture of Hurricane Eloise approaching Florida. It was a particularly vicious hurricane.atellite image of Hurricane Eloise (1975) in the Gulf of Mexico on September 22, 1975.Damage in the Florida Panhandle from Hurricane Eloise, a Category 3 tropical cyclone.
Eloise is remember in Puerto Rico as the killer storm, damages unbelievable. One of the worst tragedies in our history, so many causualties. I lost my best friend...
Quoting ScottLincoln:


CAPE is typcally the more widely-used measure of instability. LI can be easily calculated by hand with a sounding on a skew-T, CAPE not as easily. But CAPE shows instability for the entire atmosphere above where your parcel path begins, telling you more about total instability than just what it would be at the mid-levels.

There isn't just one measure of CAPE, though, so be careful. I typically look at both surface-based and most-unstable CAPE the most, particularly using them in comparison to one another.
What's the difference between them? I'm guessing they just measure the amount of instability in different parts of the atmosphere.

Also, do you have any helpful links about with information about this kinda stuff (i.e. severe weather and calculations derived from atmospheric soundings to predict weather)? I know you probably learned most of your stuff at school and at the NWS, but if you got any cool links to share, I'd love to check them out
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
by the way Floater is up for the W caribbean system



also the caribbean system has model support with the WRF and the MM5 on board also GFS shows the area as moisture and a surface trough moving into the SE GOM and S Fl also to note the (non tropical) NAM is on board
If by any chance we got chris the first days of June it would be incredible.
Humm , hello all .i haven't been watching the tropical seen .Good evening ,hope your Mem day weekend was a good one .
Aaaand there is still nothing special about the area in the Western Caribbean. It's a nice area of thunderstorms. Still nothing whatsoever at the surface. A decent area of convection that fires up, only to die down during the day. Divergence and diurnal maximum support the thunderstorm growth.

Vorticity...Nada

Quoting MississippiWx:
Aaaand there is still nothing special about the area in the Western Caribbean. It's a nice area of thunderstorms. Still nothing whatsoever at the surface. A decent area of convection that fires up, only to die down during the day. Divergence and diurnal maximum support the thunderstorm growth.

Vorticity...Nada



Whether some people wish to admit it or not, we will have to wait a bit for Chris. ;)
My husband said there was 6 inches of rain in a bucket yesterday from Beryl. It's nice to have the ground so damp and to have Florida feel like Florida again.
Quoting FloridaBorn:
My husband said there was 6 inches of rain in a bucket yesterday from Beryl. It's nice to have the ground so damp and to have Florida feel like Florida again.

Without the drought there could be some serious problems from this much rain. Might be serious problems anyway.

Tornado Warning - Sumter County, FL

Apologies if previously posted/discussed.
The northeastward pull is now evident on radar.
FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
504 AM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012

...HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF BERYL WILL CONTINUE
TO KEEP THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING...

.BANDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS
OF BERYL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE AREA TODAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW
OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO MAY ENHANCE HEAVY PRECIPITATION.

FLZ039-042-291400-
/O.CON.KTBW.FA.A.0001.000000T0000Z-120529T1400Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
LEVY-CITRUS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CEDAR KEY...CHIEFLAND...CRYSTAL RIVER...
INVERNESS
504 AM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING...

THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* A PORTION OF WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING
AREAS...CITRUS AND LEVY.

* UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING

* BANDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
REMNANTS OF BERYL WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. SOUTHWEST FLOW OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL KEEP
POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE WATCH AREA. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 5 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.

* FLOODING OF STREETS AND LOW LYING AREAS IS LIKELY. MOTORISTS
SHOULD NOT DRIVE THROUGH WATER OF UNKNOWN DEPTH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT FLOODING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT
24 TO 36 HOURS. RESIDENTS LIVING IN FLOOD PRONE AREAS SHOULD TAKE
ACTION TO PROTECT PROPERTY.

&&

$$
Quoting Jedkins01:


That line is starting to look good for us, you often need a long strong line line that to break through these stubborn lack if rain situations, they tend to creat lift ahead of them allowing them to perpetuate.


Of course, given the lack of expected rain throughout the day I wouldn't count on this bringing us good rain, but it is at least SOME hope, lol.


It certainly has a lot of CAPE in the eastern gulf just west of Tampa to feed off of, and high moisture with PWAT's near 2 inches, there is obviously a vorticity maximum with this line, we have to hope then all those things give us a chance to get some overnight into the morning.


As slow as that line is progressing, if it holds as it looks now it would easily give us all at least a couple inches given the higher tropical rain rates with such activity.


I'm not counting on it but it looks better than anything we've had a chance at all day and night.


There is actually a lot of lightning with that activity, probably because they are very tall cells and considering all the buildup of energy all day with such little rain in the gulf.
morning Jed, not a drop of rain here outside of that thunderstorm early sunday, hopefully we will get Something out of this lol..have a great day
Central & N FL are under excessive rain advisories today as 5" or more can be expected.

The thunder is constant here right now as well.

Citrus county has an unconfirmed total of 11" according to channel 9.

I'm finding places with 24.5in of storm total rainfall(SW of Mayo,Lafayette County, Florida). That's a s**t load of rain. Beryl must of tapped into the moisture from the GOM.
You know you're in trouble, when the American flag gets replaced with one of these at Midnight on Memorial Day.

On the other hand, the rain was a blessing to the drought striken areas of the Homeland.

Maybe this is a "carrot and stick" approach.

Quoting StormTracker2K:
Citrus county has an unconfirmed total of 11" according to channel 9.

Hey Stormtracker2k, I finally got some rain yesterday. Got .75 of inch. Looks like we will get a good shot of rain today. How did you do over in your area?
Wow, Beryl is still alive and kicking, I still think she will be upgraded to hurricane status in the post-season analysis. She certainly built her circulation up well enough to be able to survive with it over land this long... makes me wonder if she'll waste no time at all catching up when she finally does get over water... it seems to be the case with well-established systems that persist... it's as if they're just destined to not quit.

I wonder how much rain everyone is getting? She certainly hasn't let up since landfall. I hope pople are doing alright.
This is for tomorrow:

Oz never left Lake City. He is broadcasting again.
Wow, look at the tampa shield go to work.

Considering we have a MDT for tomorrow, i wonder if we could eke out a 60%hail risk. Would be interesting.

And the main risk seems to be for D4 but the SPC is still hesitant to outlook any areas, looks like hail and wind, with tornados possible in some locations, but dont see it amounting to more than a 10-15% risk.
It still could change in 3 days, especially with lack of model consensus

It looks like there could be a LLJ from AL and GA, through KY and IN, so that could increase tornado potential higher, as well as any surface lows that form.

and believe it or not, model consistency has gone down, as the CMC has joined the NOGAPS with an almost cutoff low by the gulf coast.\

The MRF looks bad for the TN, Carolina, VA area.
The GFS is worse for the TN VAlley
Miami NWS Discussion

.THURSDAY...A STRONG SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE RAPIDLY FROM THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY THURSDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN
THE AMPLIFICATION OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY WHICH WILL, IN TURN, PULL AMPLE MOISTURE FROM THE WESTERN CARIB
SEA NORTH ACROSS THE PENINSULA. DECIDED TO GO WITH HIGH SCT POPS
ALL AREAS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
Wow, look at the tampa shield go to work.

Considering we have a MDT for tomorrow, i wonder if we could eke out a 60%hail risk. Would be interesting.

And the main risk seems to be for D4 but the SPC is still hesitant to outlook any areas, looks like hail and wind, with tornados possible in some locations, but dont see it amounting to more than a 10-15% risk.
It still could change in 3 days, especially with lack of model consensus

It looks like there could be a LLJ from AL and GA, through KY and IN, so that could increase tornado potential higher, as well as any surface lows that form.

and believe it or not, model consistency has gone down, as the CMC has joined the NOGAPS with an almost cutoff low by the gulf coast.
Interesting...I think that slug of moisture in the NW Caribbean is going to get pulled up by the short wave into the Peninsula of FL.
Quoting severstorm:
Hey Stormtracker2k, I finally got some rain yesterday. Got .75 of inch. Looks like we will get a good shot of rain today. How did you do over in your area?


Picked up about .50" but most areas got 1" to 3" everywhere but at my place. However today it looks as if we are going to get several inches of rain as the whole sky here NW of Orlando is black. We may need to watch for tropical development in a few days as indications are there we may get TS Chris.

Nogaps


NAM
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Interesting...I think that slug of moisture in the NW Caribbean is going to get pulled up by the short wave into the Peninsula of FL.


If you remember the GFS last week was calling for Tropical developement in the NW Caribbean and moving it into FL.
CMC still shows Beryl deepening quite nicely by the NC coast
On the 850mb chart, bottom left, you can almost see where any LLJ would set up


The NAM is further north than the other models, adding to the uncertainty.It barely dips into the Ohio Valley. It shows a nice juxtaposition of Helicities and Storms over PA,NY, and VA

ECMWF is closer to the NAM
Hello again. Going to be a hot and humid day for me later, and all the mets are just saying HAZY HOT & HUMID!!! I hope I get some good storms later!

I also found this awesome app for hurricane tracking last night, and it has everything one could need for storm tracking!
Many reports to my west of 8" to 12" of rain last night. Heard another report from the Big bend of 18" yesterday.
morning guys
there is still convection in the area, there is still low level convergence, there is still high shear, however should be back off some within 36-72 hours. there is still a surface trough in the area, there is actually also a weak low level circulation just off of the hon/nic boarder coastline near 14N 83W shown by WindSat. let us wait and see what happens with the convection, shear, vorts, and surface obs today just watch

Beryl to make tropical storm status again?



Models agree:

note these are the models on board with development of our W caribbean system

WRF
MM5
NAM
NOGAP is on board
GFS is showing more of a surface trough however I noticed that GFS has forecasted this system to develop and head to S Fl in recent past runs
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
note these are the models on board with development of our W caribbean system

WRF
MM5
NAM
I think NOGAP is on board
GFS is showing more of a surface trough however I noticed that GFS has forecasted this system to develop and head to S Fl in recent past runs


Nogaps takes a 1008 low into Tampa by Saturday.
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Beryl to make tropical storm status again?



Models agree:



that tropical storm status is right at Wilmington..
Quoting StormTracker2K:


Nogaps takes a 1008 low into Tampa by Saturday.

ok so yes NOGAPS is on board


note these are the models on board with development of our W caribbean system

WRF
MM5
NAM
NOGAP is on board
GFS is showing more of a surface trough however I noticed that GFS has forecasted this system to develop and head to S Fl in recent past runs
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
On the 850mb chart, bottom left, you can almost see where any LLJ would set up


The NAM is further north than the other models, adding to the uncertainty.It barely dips into the Ohio Valley. It shows a nice juxtaposition of Helicities and Storms over PA,NY, and VA
The CMC is high on something.CRAS I.R.forecast at 84 hours..
Quoting StormTracker2K:


Nogaps takes a 1008 low into Tampa by Saturday.

Yep, make that 1007 mb. low:


Quoting GTcooliebai:
Beryl to make tropical storm status again?



Models agree:



our local media is calling for 20-25 mph winds for us tomorrow..seriously? Have they not consulted the NHC maps?
Quoting HuracanTaino:
Eloise is remember in Puerto Rico as the killer storm, damages unbelievable. One of the worst tragedies in our history, so many causualties. I lost my best friend...
It did say the P.R. was hard hit with many injuries and loss of life.It is terrible you lost your friend..I have lost a few myself and have never really gotten over it.
Quoting StormTracker2K:


Nogaps takes a 1008 low into Tampa by Saturday.


I posted that twice yesterday when someone asked about the updated HPC QPC map and the moisture that was in SF..people keep disregarding the Nogaps but it has its good moments and as I said before, Dr. Masters considers it a reliable model.
The majority of the focus ATM is, rightly, on the once and future TS Beryl, but I ran across this and thought it might be interesting to some. Chicago NWS released the following in a statement on Sunday:

...RECORD WARM WINTER AND SPRING LEADING TO RECORD WARM LAKE
TEMPERATURES...

...

AT THE SOUTH BUOY...WATER TEMPERATURES THIS PAST WEEK HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENTLY IN THE 50S...PEAKING AT 59.2 DEGREES LAST WEDNESDAY.
BASED ON DATA GOING BACK TO 1982...THE AVERAGE WATER TEMPERATURE
AT THE SOUTH BUOY FOR MAY 21ST THROUGH 25TH IS 41.0F...SO THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE ARE RUNNING 10F TO ALMOST 20F ABOVE
THE 30 YEAR AVERAGES
. ONLY ONCE BEFORE ON RECORD HAVE WATER
TEMPERATURES BEEN THIS WARM ANY EARLIER IN THE SEASON AND THAT WAS
BACK ON MAY 16 1991 WHEN WATER TEMPERATURES BRIEFLY REACHED 60F.

No ice

With the temps running about three weeks or so ahead of schedule, and with a warm summer forecast, it seems possible--and, in fact, likely--that lake water SSTs will reach an all-time high. This means more heat will be driven into the depths, and, thus, more latent energy will be stored in the 'battery'. Because of this, I can't help but wonder whether and how that will affect the onset of fall, and/or what impact that will have on the development and intensity of this winter's storms--the storied "Gales of November". Will they be more or less severe than normal? Or will there be any detectable effect at all?
From drought to floods here in FL this morning. Heard another report from Citrus County of 12.32" of rain last night.

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
514 AM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSONVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
SOUTHERN SUWANNEE COUNTY IN NORTHERN FLORIDA

* UNTIL 815 AM EDT

* AT 510 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
VERY HEAVY RAIN FROM THUNDERSTORMS NEAR OBRIEN AND MOVING
NORTHEAST. THERE HAVE BEEN DOPPLER ESTIMATES OF OVER 7 INCHES
SINCE YESTERDAY EVENING WITH AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 4 INCHES POSSIBLE
IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WHICH WILL CAUSE MORE WIDESPREAD AND
SIGNIFICANT FLOODING.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO OBRIEN
Quoting ncstorm:


our local media is calling for 20-25 mph winds for us tomorrow..seriously? Have they not consulted the NHC maps?
HWRF showing 50 mph winds on the Outer Banks.

Quoting hydrus:
The CMC is high on something.CRAS I.R.forecast at 84 hours..


The CMC is high on something, it is the Canadian Model on Crack.

the models are divided into 4 schools of thought right now.



The Ohio valley in PA class:
ECMWF
NAM

The SE and TN Vally class:
GFS
UKMET
SREF
WRF(borderline between that and the Ohio valley class)

The Gulf Coast class:
CMC
NOGAPS(appears to be leaving to the SE and TN Class)

The Missouri class:
MRF
SREF

so far based on my analysis
decent satellite loop of Beryl.
Quoting GTcooliebai:

Yep, make that 1007 mb. low:




Okay you got my attention here. I am sitting at about 1 ft elevation on Madeira Beach. One block to Gulf Blvd and the other 3 sides of me are the Boca Ceiga Bay. Interesting weather is great but I do not want anything big enough to have to evacuate with my 3 very excitable dogs ugh oh and my husband :) I'm counting on the Tampa Shield here.
Oz just announced the following cities. Brunswick, Savanah, Charleston, Wilmington and Buxton. He is still going to broadcast Beryl.
Quoting ncstorm:


I posted that twice yesterday when someone asked about the updated HPC QPC map and the moisture that was in SF..people keep disregarding the Nogaps but it has its good moments and as I said before, Dr. Masters considers it a reliable model.


The reason why I'm intrigued is the GFS showed this for several days a decent TS hitting FL last weeks model runs.

Quoting icmoore:


Okay you got my attention here. I am sitting at about 1 ft elevation on Madeira Beach. One block to Gulf Blvd and the other 3 sides of me are the Boca Ceiga Bay. Interesting weather is great but I do not want anything big enough to have to evacuate with my 3 very excitable dogs ugh oh and my husband :) I'm counting on the Tampa Shield here.
Nah it won't be much of a wind event. At most it will provide some beneficial rains for the area.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NRN FLORIDA TO THE WRN
YUCATAN PENINSULA IS PROVIDING A LARGE AREA OF DIFFLUENCE ALOFT
OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. THIS COMBINED WITH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
AND A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 21N82W TO 16N85W IS HELPING PRODUCE
NUMEROUS SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 17N-21W BETWEEN
80W-85W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ALSO EXTEND TOWARDS THE S FROM
12N-17N BETWEEN 79W-83W. STRONG SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO
ACROSS PORTIONS OF COSTA RICA AND PANAMA ASSOCIATED WITH THE E
PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH THAT EXTENDS ACROSS COSTA RICA TO A 1007
MB LOW OVER NRN COLOMBIA AT 9N73W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH DRY
AIR ALOFT COVERS THE CENTRAL AND ERN CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS ALONG
73W PROVIDING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THIS AREA. TRADEWIND
FLOW OF 15-20 KTS COVERS THE MAJORITY OF THE BASIN WITH SOME
STRONGER WINDS TO THE N OF COLOMBIA. AN AREA OF MOISTURE IN THE
TRPCL ATLC IS NOW MOVING ACROSS THE WINDWARDS ISLANDS PRODUCING
SCATTERED SHOWERS S OF 15N E OF 64W. MOISTURE IN THE WRN
CARIBBEAN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY STATIONARY FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AND WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE HEAVY
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THIS AREA AND COULD MOVE OVER LAND
AND IMPACT PORTIONS OF CUBA AND CENTRAL AMERICA.
JAX:
AT THIS POINT...TIMING SPECIFICS IS A CHALLENGE. LOOK FOR AN
EXTENDED PERIOD FOR SVR WEATHER WITH MULTIPLE ROUNDS POSSIBLE. THE
MAIN WINDOW OF TIME LOOKS TO BE FROM 3PM THU UNTIL 6 AM FRI.
INITIALLY...HAIL/DMG WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY RISK FOR THU
AFTERNOON/EVE. LATER IN THE NGT THU...WIND SHEAR LOOKS TO INCREASE
TO A POINT WHERE A FEW TORNADOES COULD BE POSSIBLE.
ADDITIONALLY...MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF STORMS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE THE
RISK FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL DURING THE THU NGT PERIOD.


by the way, seeing any storms right now Hydrus?
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Nah it won't be much of a wind event. At most it will provide some beneficial rains for the area.


Cool, thanks!
Day 3 convective outlook
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 am CDT Tuesday may 29 2012


Valid 311200z - 011200z


..there is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms much of East Texas/arklatex to the
Tennessee/lower Ohio River valleys...


...
A considerable late may upper trough will continue to amplify to a
degree/otherwise spread eastward over much of the east-central Continental U.S.
On Thursday. While uncertain mesoscale/forecast details are
considerable factors by the day 3 juncture...a relatively broad area
of at least some severe potential will likely exist ahead of an
eastward moving surface low and east-southeastward moving cold front
as below.


..much of Texas/arklatex to Tennessee/lower Ohio River valleys...
Several factors of uncertainty lead to a broad categorical slight
risk on Thursday...although subsequent refinement will be needed and
potentially somewhat higher probabilities may ultimately be
warranted. First...its readily plausible that an mesoscale convective system/remnants
thereof will be an early day factor come Thursday morning across the
region. On the large scale...spread also increases among 00z-based
deterministic guidance/ensembles regarding the exact degree/timing
of upper trough amplification into Thursday...with especially the
00z European model (ecmwf) indicative of a continued later period and farther north
/Ohio Valley/ severe potential in contrast to the slower/farther
west 00z deterministic GFS.


Regardless...current thinking is that a potential mesoscale convective system/outflow
remnants thereof will exist somewhere across the arklatex/Ozarks to
perhaps even the adjacent MS River Valley Thursday morning. Odds are
that possible outflow/mesoscale convective vortex influences will be the primary influencing
factors for subsequent storm development/reinvigoration within a
relatively broad moist/potentially unstable pre-cold frontal warm
sector across the MS River Valley/Tennessee Valley and perhaps lower Ohio
Valley Thursday afternoon/evening. Damaging winds/some severe hail
will be the primary hazards. Farther southwest...within a weaker
vertical shear but stronger buoyancy regime...severe storms capable
of large hail/damaging winds will also be possible near the cold
front across the arklatex and central/East Texas Thursday
afternoon/evening.
Quoting hydrus:
The goys at the SPC say...DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0230 AM CDT TUE MAY 29 2012

VALID 311200Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS MUCH OF EAST TX/ARKLATEX TO THE
TN/LOWER OH RIVER VALLEYS...

...SYNOPSIS...
.


that is day3 thurday, read day 4-8 for the main event.
I say 5-15% torn, 30-45%hail, and 30-45%wind.

NWS Peachtree City, GA says:
GUIDANCE ALSO INDICATES A 35-40KT LOW LEVEL
JET ACCOMPANYING THIS SYSTEM WITH POTENTIALLY 1500-2000 J/KG OF CAPE
IN PLACE..


so we could see the wind advisories go up
636. Jax82
Nice band of rain setting up for NEFL. Other than some tree limbs and leaves everywhere, i'd say everyone fared well from Beryl.

Quoting StormTracker2K:


The reason why I'm intrigued is the GFS showed this for several days a decent TS hitting FL last weeks model runs.

Hey stormtrackerk2, I'm on board with what ever you are seeing. You might not be always right but you have a better avg. than most of the weather guys here in tampa. great job!!!!!! Starting to rain really good here in Z-hills today.
itsstuck

Stretch Of S.R. 40 Reopens After Flooding
Busy Road Closed For 1 Mile Tuesday Morning



DUNNELLON, Fla. -- Busy State Road 40 was closed early Tuesday morning because of water over the roadway.

About one mile of the road is closed in Dunnellon just east of U.S. Highway 41. After a few hours, the road reopened in both directions shortly before 7 a.m.

WESH 2 traffic reporter Kimberly Williams says drivers can use Southwest 31st street or East Pennsylvania Avenue instead.

Stay with WESH for more traffic updates.

Read more: http://www.wesh.com/news/31124740/detail.html#ixzz 1wGHCy9n8
SPC D 4-8 Outlook:

NUMERICAL GUIDANCE VARIABILITY/UNCERTAINTIES CONTINUE TO PRECLUDE A
SPECIFIC DELINEATION OF 30 PERCENT CALIBER SEVERE RISKS...ALTHOUGH
SEVERE TSTMS CAN NONETHELESS BE EXPECTED...POTENTIALLY EVEN ON A
WIDESPREAD BASIS
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS ON DAY 4/FRIDAY. ON
FRIDAY...SEVERE TSTMS SEEM LIKELY WITHIN A GENERAL CORRIDOR FROM THE
TN VALLEY/SOUTHEAST STATES TO THE APPALACHIANS/CAROLINAS AND PERHAPS
MID-ATLANTIC STATES
...WITH 00Z GFS-BASED GUIDANCE GENERALLY
SLOWER/FARTHER WEST AS COMPARED TO THE FASTER/FARTHER EAST 00Z
ECMWF. A SEVERE THREAT COULD EVEN LINGER INTO DAY 5/SATURDAY FOR
AREAS SUCH AS THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST/COASTAL CAROLINAS SHOULD A
SLOWER TROUGH/COLD FRONT SOLUTION MATERIALIZE AS PER 00Z
DETERMINISTIC GFS/GEFS GUIDANCE.

general consensus seems to be all modes are possible, but they really dont have much of an idea on exactly how this will pan out.
Apparently there is a wildfire in Upper Michigan that has done quite some damage.
I didnt even notice this before.

This will all fall apart right before it reaches me, I just know it.
There is a lot more rain on tap for FL.


Hernando county Florida is getting hammered. A report of 6.59" (for the 24 hrs ending 7am this morning) just came in from Cocohrahs site in Brooksvillle. Highest rain report from Cocorahs so far in Florida. Obviously a "training event" there. That's a lot, but they really need it.Areal Flood Advisory
Quoting StormTracker2K:
There is a lot more rain on tap for FL.




Some parts..LOL
I am supposed to be visiting the NWS in atlanta tomorrow with the weather club TheOnlyBravesFan and I started from our Math Club, i will try to see if i can get any info on what they think of the upcoming system, which will be on day 3 convective outlook by then.

Hopefully there will also be more model consistency, so they wont just say, "we really dont know what will happen"
I hope the rain from Beryl has been beneficial to those that needed it the most. We're supposed to be dry here in Louisiana everyday except the day I have where a bunch of people are free to come over and help stain the deck and fencing. Isn't that the way it always works...
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
JAX:
AT THIS POINT...TIMING SPECIFICS IS A CHALLENGE. LOOK FOR AN
EXTENDED PERIOD FOR SVR WEATHER WITH MULTIPLE ROUNDS POSSIBLE. THE
MAIN WINDOW OF TIME LOOKS TO BE FROM 3PM THU UNTIL 6 AM FRI.
INITIALLY...HAIL/DMG WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY RISK FOR THU
AFTERNOON/EVE. LATER IN THE NGT THU...WIND SHEAR LOOKS TO INCREASE
TO A POINT WHERE A FEW TORNADOES COULD BE POSSIBLE.
ADDITIONALLY...MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF STORMS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE THE
RISK FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL DURING THE THU NGT PERIOD.


by the way, seeing any storms right now Hydrus?
The system in the Western Caribbean is interesting. It has an upper low to the west of it that might alter its track. If it actually made it into the gulf, something could spin up, but it likely go up the spine of the peninsula or to the N.E. of it. You can see the upper low over Central America.
Cyclone OZ is heading back to catch Beryl.

Quoting ncstorm:


our local media is calling for 20-25 mph winds for us tomorrow..seriously? Have they not consulted the NHC maps?


IF Beryl makes TS status again, the strongest winds would remain offshore with an ENE movement.
i think i'm encountering 'stretching of the blog' for the first time... seen it referenced for years, never experienced. is this when a post duplicates in a "stretched out" way while scrolling up or down the comments?
sorry if not topic related; but is blog related :)
Looks like the showers on the west coast are staying just barely to Tampa Bay's north.
Link
So do you think that they will put up TS warnings for the carolinas if its supposed to restrengthen?
Quoting nchurricane:
So do you think that they will put up TS warnings for the carolinas if its supposed to restrengthen?


I'm wondering that as well. Not too much talk on the OBX about the storm.
Quoting nchurricane:
So do you think that they will put up TS warnings for the carolinas if its supposed to restrengthen?


I would expect it.





It still has a pretty good spin and has been over land for what, about 36 hours?
Quoting nchurricane:
So do you think that they will put up TS warnings for the carolinas if its supposed to restrengthen?
They will put some kind of advisories up. I was thinking gale warnings at the very least.
You think they would considering its about 24 hours out
Quoting nchurricane:
So do you think that they will put up TS warnings for the carolinas if its supposed to restrengthen?



From the 5am Discussion

BERYL WILL HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY TO REGAIN TROPICAL STORM STRENGH AS
IT ACCELERATES AND MOVES OFFSHORE AND OVER THE WARM GULF STREAM
WATERS...IN WHAT SHOULD STILL BE A RELATIVELY LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT.
ALTHOUGH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A TROPICAL STORM CENTERED VERY
NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST IN 36 HOURS...IT IS EXPECTED THAT
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS WOULD BE CONFINED TO THE SOUTHEAST AND
OFFSHORE QUADRANT OF THE CYCLONE. AS A RESULT...NO COASTAL WATCHES
OR WARNINGS CURRENTLY SEEM NECESSARY
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION BERYL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.4 WEST. BERYL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 2 MPH...4 KM/H.

A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY...BRINGING THE CENTER OF BERYL CLOSE TO THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND BACK OVER ATLANTIC WATERS BY LATE WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED TODAY...BUT SOME STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY AS BERYL APPROACHES THE COASTLINE AND ACCELERATES ON WEDNESDAY...WHEN BERYL COULD REGAIN TROPICAL STORM STATUS.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.

Above is an excerpt from 5 a.m. Tropical Depression BERYL Public Advisory(NHC).
Expect an update at 11 a.m.
Two questions:

1. Given the two storms to date, is there a season pattern emerging similar to the past years where storms followed a dominant pattern such as the curvature into the Atlantic or a few yrs ago with the tracks that stayed low and hammered Mexico?

2. RE: Nea Lake Michigan comments - As a relatively closed ecosystem, my concern would be regarding the rash of invasive species and whether these increased temps may allow the invasives to thrive and hurt the native fish species?
12Z
Statistical


Dynamic


Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
I am supposed to be visiting the NWS in atlanta tomorrow with the weather club TheOnlyBravesFan and I started from our Math Club, i will try to see if i can get any info on what they think of the upcoming system, which will be on day 3 convective outlook by then.

Hopefully there will also be more model consistency, so they wont just say, "we really dont know what will happen"
There is a lot of"what ifs" with this system, but they did feel confident enough to put that slight risk area up three days in advance plus the 4-8. It will be quite a system.
Looks like it will depend upon how close to the coastline Beryl stays as she moves northeast.
Atlantic looks completely clear of development through the 9th of June according to the models.
Quoting HurricaneKing:



From the 5am Discussion

BERYL WILL HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY TO REGAIN TROPICAL STORM STRENGH AS
IT ACCELERATES AND MOVES OFFSHORE AND OVER THE WARM GULF STREAM
WATERS...IN WHAT SHOULD STILL BE A RELATIVELY LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT.
ALTHOUGH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A TROPICAL STORM CENTERED VERY
NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST IN 36 HOURS...IT IS EXPECTED THAT
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS WOULD BE CONFINED TO THE SOUTHEAST AND
OFFSHORE QUADRANT OF THE CYCLONE. AS A RESULT...NO COASTAL WATCHES
OR WARNINGS CURRENTLY SEEM NECESSARY


Thanks King
SE TX:

Dry pattern upper level pattern of ridging aloft and at the surface continues to support little if any rainfall over the area has been the case for the past 1.5-2 weeks. Ground moisture is starting to dry with the hot afternoon temperatures and gusty south winds


2011 versus 2012 Rainfall:

While the last few weeks have been very dry, rainfall for the first part of 2012 has been extremely heavy with some locations recording their first or second wettest year to date starts on record. Most locations are averaging between 3-4 times greater rainfall in 2012 compared to 2011.



Sugar Land: 5.89 vs 30.18 (over 5 times the amount of rainfall in 2012 compared to 2011)

College Station: 7.66 vs 23.12

Crockett: 12.03 vs 21.65

Bush IAH: 6.96 vs 22.24

Hobby: 5.40 vs 26.29

Galveston: 7.73 vs 20.82

Matagorda: 5.31 vs 21.44

Tomball: 4.32 vs 13.63

Victoria: 6.13 vs 11.81


**Even while rain has been HUGE this year, already north of I-10 and east of I-45 where current KBDI values are pushing into the 500-600 range indicating that vegetation health is starting to suffer due to lack of ground moisture**

After all number crunching which is meaningless in the end, TX is still in the hole
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Atlantic looks completely clear of development through the 9th of June according to the models.


Even the GEOS-5 has gone to a open trough for the Caribbean blob as it moves over FL.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Atlantic looks completely clear of development through the 9th of June according to the models.


Not the Caribbean & Gulf.



Quoting Skyepony:


Even the GEOS-5 has gone to a open trough for the Caribbean blob as it moves over FL.


Hopefully that can pan out for Tampa as they can't seem to get this rain down into Tampa.

Quoting RitaEvac:
SE TX:

Dry pattern upper level pattern of ridging aloft and at the surface continues to support little if any rainfall over the area has been the case for the past 1.5-2 weeks. Ground moisture is starting to dry with the hot afternoon temperatures and gusty south winds


2011 versus 2012 Rainfall:

While the last few weeks have been very dry, rainfall for the first part of 2012 has been extremely heavy with some locations recording their first or second wettest year to date starts on record. Most locations are averaging between 3-4 times greater rainfall in 2012 compared to 2011.



Sugar Land: 5.89 vs 30.18 (over 5 times the amount of rainfall in 2012 compared to 2011)

College Station: 7.66 vs 23.12

Crockett: 12.03 vs 21.65

Bush IAH: 6.96 vs 22.24

Hobby: 5.40 vs 26.29

Galveston: 7.73 vs 20.82

Matagorda: 5.31 vs 21.44

Tomball: 4.32 vs 13.63

Victoria: 6.13 vs 11.81


**Even while rain has been HUGE this year, already north of I-10 and east of I-45 where current KBDI values are pushing into the 500-600 range indicating that vegetation health is starting to suffer due to lack of ground moisture**

After all number crunching which is meaningless in the end, TX is still in the hole

I see Tomball's anti-rain shield is still active...
Quoting nchurricane:


Thanks King


Don't mention it.

I still think they may be slightly underestimating the wind field at that time and wouldn't be surprised for the counties (carteret dare onslow etc) that border the ocean along the southeast NC coast to see a brief period of tropical storm force.
Quoting jeffs713:

I see Tomball's anti-rain shield is still active...


Rain gauge needs to be checked
Quoting Skyepony:


Even the GEOS-5 has gone to a open trough for the Caribbean blob as it moves over FL.
Yes. This next trough will shear it. Florida should get some decent rain.
TX better pray for tropical storm and hurricanes this year
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
These numbers "look impressive" but in reality are still unacceptable...

Sugar Land: 5.89 vs 30.18 (over 5 times the amount of rainfall in 2012 compared to 2011)

College Station: 7.66 vs 23.12

Crockett: 12.03 vs 21.65

Bush IAH: 6.96 vs 22.24

Hobby: 5.40 vs 26.29

Galveston: 7.73 vs 20.82

Matagorda: 5.31 vs 21.44

Tomball: 4.32 vs 13.63

Victoria: 6.13 vs 11.81
Cloudy and breezy along the Bay. All the rain has stayed north of me most of the night but it looks like some storms should move in within the next hour.
Quoting RitaEvac:
TX better pray for tropical storm and hurricanes this year
I think High Pressure will keep tropical systems away from Texas, hope I am wrong but the High Pressure in Mexico and West Texas is pretty strong again. Weak front coming thru Thursday is suppose to drop us to low 90s instead of mid to upper 90's for 1 day.
Looks like the southeast is gonna get some sever weather an unusually powerful cold front(for this time of year) barrels through the southeast Fri-Sat!!!
Quoting jeffs713:

I see Tomball's anti-rain shield is still active...
I do not think we should Compare any year in Texas to 2011 that was a very hot and dry year and hopefully we never see one like that again but to compare record drought year with another year means very little to me. Since Texas is pretty dry and hot every Summer be happy if you stay below 100 and get a shower once a month that is the way i look at it in South Central Texas.
the WRF MM5 NAM NOGAP and somewhat the GFS and GEOS-5 all forecast a system in the W caribbean
Quoting RitaEvac:
These numbers "look impressive" but in reality are still unacceptable...

Sugar Land: 5.89 vs 30.18 (over 5 times the amount of rainfall in 2012 compared to 2011)

College Station: 7.66 vs 23.12

Crockett: 12.03 vs 21.65

Bush IAH: 6.96 vs 22.24

Hobby: 5.40 vs 26.29

Galveston: 7.73 vs 20.82

Matagorda: 5.31 vs 21.44

Tomball: 4.32 vs 13.63

Victoria: 6.13 vs 11.81
What does Unacceptable mean to Mother Nature? Be happy 2012 has been much better than 2011 so far.
Quoting GTcooliebai:

Yep, make that 1007 mb. low:




This could turn into a Noreaster I believe