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Beryl levels off in intensity

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 12:27 PM GMT on July 20, 2006

Beryl appears to have stopped intensifying. The latest Hurricane Hunter center report at 7:13 am EDT found that the pressure had risen 1 mb from the 5am advisory, to 1002 mb. Surface winds remained at about 60 mph. Long range radar from New Jersey (Figure 1) shows the storm's structure nicely. While there is some good spiral banding, the storm has been unable to close off an eye. Visible satellite imagery from this morning shows a Central Dense Overcast (CDO) typical of a hurricane trying to form over the southern portion of the storm, where the shear is less. With the wind shear now rising steadily and sea surface temperatures declining, it is unlikely that Beryl will be to make the transition to hurricane status, although a few more hours probably remain for this to happen. A slow decline in strength should begin tonight. Wind shear is currently 10 - 20 knots from the west, and should increase to 20 - 30 knots by Friday morning. Sea surface temperatures are 25 - 26 C, and will fall to 24 - 25 C.


Figure 1.Current long-range radar out of Philadelphia.

Impact on New England
A strong band of westerly upper-level winds over New England will act to turn Beryl more to the northeast today. It is possible that the storm could penetrate far enough north to strike southeast Massachussestts early Friday, as indicated by the GFS and GFDL models. However, the further north Beryl does go, the likelier she is to significantly weaken, since wind shear increases sharply to the north. A close pass by a 50-60 mph tropical storm or a strike by a weaker 40-50 mph tropical storm are the two most likely scenarios for southeast Massachussetts. In either case, beach erosion will probably be the primary threat. Already, the waves at the mid-ocean buoy 230 miles east of New Jersey are up to 12 feet, and large waves on top of the expected 1-3 foot storm surge should cause some moderate beach erosion along the southeast Massachussetts coast. Beryl will be moving quickly when it passes Massachussetts, and much of the heaviest rain will remain offshore, so flooding from rainfall should be minor. Rains of 2-4 inches are expected in southeast Massachussetts.

Elsewhere in the tropics
An area of disturbed weather associated with an upper-level low pressure system continues a few hundred miles north of Puerto Rico. Wind shear, dry air, and cold air temperatures will keep any development of this system to a minimum. A large cloud of African dust over the eastern Atlantic should keep things quiet there the rest of the week. None of the computer models are hinting at any development over the next week.

I'll be back with an update this afternoon. The next Hurricane Hunter flight is scheduled to arrive at 2pm EDT. And in case you were wondering how to pronounce Beryl, check out wunderblogger MargieKieper's humorous blog.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

God morning Dr. Masters. Thanks for the info.
morning Dr. MASTERS! :)
Thanks for the update.

Guess Beryl will be history by this weekend.
Now we wait for the next blob with ambition to develop.
ya I guess but this was a fun one and it didn't hurt anybody.
Good morning guys. I guess that blob in the GOM yesterday crapped out about as fast as it blew up. Ah well.
Thank you Dr Masters! That's what I want to hear, Beryl should not get stronger and that other ULL probably won't develope! YIPEE!!!
Gamma
i have stared at so many satellite and radar loops..... need a week off! LOL

thought possible that a tropical storm cound end up in myrtle beach this year, but with Beryl ("FRICK"), it sorta formed over myrtle beach.....

Course "FRICK" was a cannibal, she ate "FRACK"...... :)

looks like one more curtain call on cape cod..... then she'll be free.....
It looks like the GOM blob is going to flare back up today - there is already some activity.
It is interesting to me that the climatologicaly based model CLP5 (brown line) seems to take Beryl the farthest inland on a path across SE New Enland but the Historical Tracks seem to suggest a path near but southward of Nantucket.

I'll still keep watching the GOM blob, but it doesn't appear to me that it will develop into anything worth mentioning. August will be here soon enough, and I am very curious to see where the Bermuda High sets up shop during the months of August and September.
A wave over south Florida it seems like. This is a very juicy atmosphere for this time of day. Usually nothing but blue skies this time of day. Should get very active this afternoon

From NWS- TO WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY BEGINNING
AROUND NOON AS A TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE STATE. THE STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BRING BRIEF GUSTY
WINDS...FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING...AND POSSIBLY A SMALL
TORNADO OR FUNNEL CLOUD. IN ADDITION...THE STORMS WILL BRING HEAVY
RAINS INCREASING THE CHANCE FOR MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE
AND LOW LYING AREAS AS WELL AS PONDING ON ROADWAYS. RAINFALL
TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED LOCATIONS. Going into Gulf? What next?
At the current strength of 60mph there could be waves as high as 18-20 feet with Beryl.
GOM blobs are typical for south FL this time of year. Haven't had the pattern for a while, but those PM t'storms are common from those waves.
on the Upton, NY Radar and Mt. Holly, NJ Radar , almost appears a wobble to me.... starts out ne, then appears to be n at the end?

no matter, appears long island may be getting some of the outer bands...... soon!

Good Morning all...

Todays Question:What was the most aesthetically pleasing storm of all-time?

you can leave your choice at my blog....

aesthetically: meaning beautiful
the next 4 or 5 hours are critical as far as direction...

if this storm continues with a northward component...... who knows...
Is there any surge threat to New York?
"surge" doubtful, unless the COC goes directly over long island, which isn't likely.... but certainly some decent surf (waves)....
20. V26R
Suprised That the NHC hasn't put up atleast a Watch for the NYCLI area considering that we got pretty good wind gusts right now! Guess they are trying to play it Calm and Safe?
I saw a picture of Hurricane Hugo posted here when everyone was comparing their 'best of' series of storms. With the Hugo picture, there was the comment about the large amount of 'outflow' from Hugo. My question is 'why is it called 'outflow''? What we saw spreading from the southwest corner of Hugo spreading across the U.S. was a huge weather pattern but was it moving 'OUT' and away from Hugo, or was it being used to feed Hugo and moving 'IN' toward the low pressure center. I would think that that would be called an 'inflow'. I am definitely new to weather phenonemon do please be patient with me! Thanks in advance. I don't know how to post the picture here either -- but I think ya'll probably know what I am talkin about.

Geoff
Gainesville, Fl.
Would be good for LI and NYC to get enough wind and rain to get everybody thinking about what to do when a big one hits. Despite N.O., I bet there are many in NYC who think "that could never happen here".
Zap
V26R, keep us updated on your conditions there.....

is the media even "acknowledging" Beryl there?
does anyone else see swirl attempt at 30/78? Maybe Frack wasn't eaten after all?

-stormy
these blobs are not common for s Florida actually. Pm storms die out with loss of afternnon heating. These are not seabreeze collision leftovers....but a wave....
I think the disturbance yesterday in the Central GoM was just a bit of upper-level divergence, it really had no reflection anywhere near the surface and upper-level conditions have since changed.

One of the Miami AFDs from yesterday did mention a weak low at the 800-700mb level, near Abacos Island. The area around S. FL. has had bursts of convection in the Atlantic and the FL straits over the past day or so, with a couple of weak areas of cyclonic turning, one off the east coast in the Atlantic and a second newer one near the lower Keys. Florida NWS forecasters are saying that we have been under a mid-to-upper level col, with very little mid/upper steering flow right now. This is supposed to change as the easterlies deepen over the next couple of days.

Besides Beryl, I don't see anything out there very interesting in terms of tropical development, at least for today, even with my "low threshold" for excitement.
27. ljk
looks like its developing eye.
Stormy, trust me.... "FRACK" was absorbed! LOL

wasnt theere an ULL in that area?
29. V26R
Most of the News outlets are just mentioning the chance of heavy showers today and cloudy conditions with no mention of Beryl at all.
Only real talk is on the Local NWS Web Sites about the dangerous Surf conditions up on the Cape, Seems like Long Island is going to be a Bastard Child on this one! Maybethey forgot about the Storm of 38' and Hurricane Gloria
back in 85'?
V26R...Majority of the population there could use a good wake-up. Beryl would be perfect. TS with some wind and rain....kind of a gentle remender of what "could" happen! Then you can all pick up the wind-pruned branches for a couple days... that should send the message. I'm not wanting to see anything bad but a good TS gets you thinking.
I think that eye-like feature currently visible near the center of Beryl is due to some dry air entrainment, not really a true eye. It looks like an "eye" on the visible loops, but in the IR and WV loops you can see some relatively drier air getting wrapped in towards the center.
Buhdog...Yes, some unsettled weather around south FL. Lightning all around here for several hours in the early morning. Looks like the rain will hit here around noon or earlier. That's way too soon for just the basic afternoon seabreeze boundary clash.
Reminders never help. Look at the idiots in South FL last year. The day after Wilma came through as a Cat 1 there were thousands of people looking for water. Now if there are that many people in Florida who still aren't prepared after all the storms that have hit there over the last few years, I don't have much hope for the rest of the Country. It was the same in New Orleans. Two days before Katrina hit City officials where predicted a lot worse storm than actually hit the city. But how many people decided to ride it out.
I hear what you're saying about the idiots. In NOLA they actually evacuated just over 75% of the population before the hit. Way above average for any city in the US. I doubt Tampa or Miami could come close to that percentage if the need should arise. Forget Houston....those people will never evacuate again after the Rita debacle!
35. pwd
Is there any way to estimate the amount, the altitude and particulate size of the african dust in the E.Atl thats preventing Hurricane formation?
Setting up here, in the Bay area, as a typical day - winds from the east, pressure rising, humidity falling, temps rising. If we stay typical, all the above will reverse around 1ish and setup for the late afternoon light displays.

I can see the "stuff" in south florida and would concur that it is not the normal pattern. Pattern rarely brings morning showers...

-stormy
Your right about the percentage being a high one. But judging by the deaths and rooftop rescues there where way too many who just said it won't happen to me. Then when it does they cry about not being taken care of in a timely manner.
Morning all.

Looks like Beryl is starting to get effected by the shear, dry air, and cooler SSTs. Rand, I agree that this could serve as a reminder for the NE but I have not seen a lot of traffic on here from the NE. Makes me wonder how seriously they took this or will take anyhting in the future. I do think the media will make most well aware if the NE were ever truly threatened by a strong cane. Problem is some will never take it seriously til they se it with there on eyes.

Anywho, got to get back to work. See ya'll later.

StormJunkie.com-Imagery, forecast models, marine data, wind data, preparedness info and much more.
I think part of what happens is that people do stock up but then consume their emergency supplies thinking they can always restock. Then when the storm threatens there is a panic, grocery shelves quickly empty, plywood and gasoline run out, and many people are trapped.

Also there are many elderly and homeless who cannot move, younger people looking for a "thrill", and many people who would prefer to stay and protect their property.

I don't know about the homeless in N.O., but I can tell you there a a great deal of homeless people in FL. They are driven out of the "respectable" areas, and many live in camps in the woods. I often talk to a woman who owns a successful health food store in Orlando, who stocks many herbs and essential organic oils at very reasonable prices. She tells me she was homeless for many years after being divorced and abandoned, before she pulled herself together...she told me about these camps and the "hidden homeless" in Florida...apart from all of those you see on the streets holding signs and wandering around collecting other peoples trash and roadside litter. It is not just about the "stupid people".


Even though it has been many many years since Tampa had a direct hit from a major hurricane, I do believe many here would heed the warning if one is approaching. When Pinellas and Hillsborough counties were under mandatory evacs with Charley approaching, people got out.
vortextrance....You're absolutely right. Around here it gets pretty ridiculous....Elderly people in a mobile home community....that is in a known surge and or flood zone....refuse to evacuate because they say they have nowhere else to go and have 17 pets they refuse to leave. So what happens? They lose the mobile home....the pets and are lucky if they escape with their own lives without drowning or getting beat to death by the mobile home crashing in around them. I think I would have evacuated.
it seriously til they se it with there on eyes.

Man that was bad
.....till they see it with their own eyes......

Sorry :)
"Despite N.O., I bet there are many in NYC who think "that could never happen here".

Well, NYC is above sea level, unlike New Orleans. And the sea around it is cooler than the Gulf. So, what happened to NO really couldn't happen to NYC. Not to say NYC could not get damaged by a storm, but not like what happened to NO, or to Mississippi.
nash28....I have concern about The Tampa area. Even though the evacs in Charly did go well....it's like the Houston-Rita thing. Once they evac without the hit....it's very difficult to convince them to do it again. This is the horrible part of this. This is how many more people than normal end up in harm's way.
Rand ...yea, the folks that evacuated for Charley - evacuated directly into the path of Charley. The FEMA and Red Cross Crews were stationed at a hotel in Punta Gorda so they could quickly get to Tampa after Charley moved ashore.

oops
probably get jumped all over for this thought but what the heck...

In my opinion, the media contributes to the complacency we see during the big strikes. In any given hurricane season, one can turn on the TV to watch the play by play of every hurricane twitch. After showing the twitch, there is a wait until the next image is available. During that wait we get to see the simulation of the big one coming ashore and how our entire state will become Atlantis. We watch the reporters standing on distant shores, their hair ruffled by a breeze and the camera lens speckled with salt water admonishing all to stay home and stay safe. Seriously, really watch the play on TV when there is any US land anywhere near the cone the networks have turned this into a rating war and it is more akin to watching a documentary or drama. It plays as surreal and it plays way too often. It is the Big Boy crying wolf over and over.

Ill go back under my rock now.
Stormy2day....That was just a horrible situation! Nobody needs this crap anymore. No more storms...final!
Big oops, but then again not many could have predicted that last second hard right hook Charley took to spare Tampa the direct hit. I remember clear as day listening to a local jock in the area (MJ for those of you in the area) and up until about 2pm that day it was still a Tampa hurricane.
I am disturbed to see all of these harsh judgements on elderly people from those who are so young. It is difficult to imagine what happens to you when you body starts breaking down because of age. I look at my father-in-law...he has a great heart but is one tough SOB, being a former Marine who was one of the first on the beach at Guadalcanal in WWII, and a former truck driver/steel worker/foreman after that. Now he has two artifical hips, two artificial knees, and he is going blind. His wife, my mother-in-law, is also having problems, but she is so proud that she will sometimes crawl around all day on all fours on a bad day just to take care of her husband, rather than ask her daughters to help.

There is no dementia or Alzheimers involved with these two, their minds are clear; they just do not want to go gently into the night.
They are proud people, and I don't dare judge them until I am in their shoes, if I even make it that far...
But we all get to watch Anderson Cooper laugh his way through the whole landfall!
He did that here in Frances and Jeanne. I sent countless emails to CNN over that but I guess his ratings went up....he's still there! Hope they never send him back here....I'll find him.
For those who missed it earlier,

Hurricane Warning

I have created an analysis of Beryl on Hurricane Warning incorporating all the latest data from the 5 AM advisory as well as dopplar radar, computer models, satellite, and recon observations. It has the scenarios for the future of Beryl as well as what is happening now. It has important information regarding the unexpected movement of Beryl. I will continue to post live recon updates.
When you do find him, could you please slap him so hard that one of his two last names falls off so he can acquire a new one? He's a giant putz.
I'm no longer young. Nor was I bashing elderly people. Where did that come from? I was stating the facts. There is always a 5% bunch of bonehead young people that want to have their hurricane party also that do not evacuate. They end up with most of the pets.
There...now I bashed young people....is that better?
NYC is mostly above sea level, but its infrastructure is not, a lot of it is really old, and it's not all documented accurately. It would take a long time and many $$ to replace all the subway electronics and telecom damage from even a modest storm surge.

Plus, the glass and water damage alone would be horrendous, with winds howling between skyscrapers.

I think NYC would recover better than NO, as it wouldn't steep in the flood for a few weeks, but I bet it would cost more overall.
Zap
Rand ...now, there you go - Anderson Cooper ...I wasn't going to name names but now that it is out there - I totally agree with you. Cooper is one sick dude. (keeping it G rated here)

To answer Gwarnock's question, Outflow is caused by upper level winds moving away from the center of a cyclone. Low level winds converge on the center or eye of the hurricane, rise in the eyewall (and bands) the air cools and the winds reverse themselves and flow outward in the upper atmosphere. A strong, symetrical hurricane will have good outflow in all quadrants (directions) and requires a low wind shear environment for this. There is a good hurricane primer on wikipedia for more info.

Terry
You're absolutely right. Around here it gets pretty ridiculous....Elderly people in a mobile home community....that is in a known surge and or flood zone....refuse to evacuate because they say they have nowhere else to go and have 17 pets they refuse to leave. So what happens? They lose the mobile home....the pets and are lucky if they escape with their own lives without drowning or getting beat to death by the mobile home crashing in around them. I think I would have evacuated.


Can't imagine. Jerk can't even remember what he wrote.
58. V26R
Zaphod, Don't know where you got your Info, but the majority of NYC is RIGHT AT Sealevel
We had a Noreaster a few yeas back that flooded
the FDR Drive from the East River, and Parts of Coney Island were cut off. Watch the news for reports of Flooding after a small Boomer when is passes thru the area, and its not from clogged storm drains either! NYC will recover alot faster than NO, but because I think we are more in he Limelight politically and economically (Wall Street etc...)
I get sick of people acting like the only people who don't evacuate are elderly, too poor or sick. This is just not true. Now its awful when someone of any age is left to fend for themselves when they cant take care of themselves. But this is a small number compared to those who don't leave just because they don't want to for whatever reason.
Randrewl - Didn't say you were bashing exactly, but I was just trying to look at it from the point of view of these older folks. Also, many of them really do suffer mental imapairment, and may not have anyone to look after them.

I guess what I am "bashing" is this "blame the victim" kind of talk that I hear so much, just in general...I think it takes away from the real issues of how we should manage emergencies in this country. Everyone for themselves? Or do we help each other out, both individually and through our government?
That is the real underlying issue, right?
61. Beta
Looks like Beryl is forming an eyewall
http://www.intellicast.com/WeatherImg/SatelliteLoop/hifloat1_None_anim.gif
I think it's the fault of the middle aged people who won't MAKE the elders or the youths do the smart thing. They are too busy loading into the oversized SUV's hording the generators and gas and making hotel reservations to think about that - there - we have it all covered now.

V26R,
My point wasn't to say it was much at all above sea level (and parts are below, IIRC, due to sinking), but that a lot of really important stuff is WAY below sealevel.

I think infrastructure goes over 100ft down in some areas now.

But I'm just remembering some documentary from a few years back on the vulnerabilities of major towns, so I can't speak beyond generalities.

I agree with 100% that the political differences at every level would greatly affect the recovery process.
Zap
i don't think the term "eyewall" apply's here......
..forgot to blame the babies - newborns don't take near the responsibility in all this that they should.

...and how about the pets? Afterall, it must be the pets' fault that their peeps stay behind ...those sad eyes, that wagging tail ...
nash28

The last major Hurricane to hit near Tampa was the October 1921 Hurricane and before that it was the 1848 Hurricane.

Yeah, the pets are pretty guilty, not to mention the photo ops you will miss if you leave when the media shows up - nothing like getting on CNN in front of the toothpicks that used to be your house - who wants to miss that opportunity!
Zaphod - Interesting that you mention that about "it will never happen here" for the NYC metro area. NYC OEM, the Greater NY Hospital Association, and about a two dozen hospitals in NYC participated in a citywide coastal storm evacuation drill last week. The drill, held over a five day period, simulated a cat 4 hurricane ("Hurricane Liberty"), coming up the coast and making landfall in NYC. Some really interesting findings came out of it.
When I was in college, a tornado hit our house. The photographers were there almost IMMEDIATELY - it's like they were actually born out of the tornado - hmmm - I wonder.... no... they didn't put down the cameras to help clean up the mess, just wanted to get good shots of the carnage....
71. V26R
Zaphod, Would have loved to seen that show
Many of the Subway tunnels would be totalled along with the Cabling system that runs it, The Electrical system would be in danger too because the Majority of Old Mother Edisons Cables run underground and we just can't shut down like they do Down Island to save the system! NHC Just issued Watches from Port Jeff Eastward, So hopefully he started his Right Turn!
Stormy2day - Good one. That hurricane is coming regardless, and not everyone evacuates, which causes problems...we all agree on that.

The issue that rankles many here is that some (ME AMONG THEM) believe the government should help out those in need who can't get out, while others tend to believe that everyone does or should have the economic means and the good sense/sanity to get out of the way, and therefor those that don't evacuate deserve whatever bad fortune falls on them. There is some truth on both sides.
At 11 am EDT...1500 UTC...a tropical storm watch has been issued
from west of Woods Hole Massachusetts westward to New Haven
Connecticut
IF there are those that we already know don't have the economic means in those areas, wouldn't it be more productive for the government to work pro-actively ahead of time and attempt to assist them with relocating to somewhere else permanently. They know the areas are eventual hits and those people are then issues, it's impossible I know to dictate where individuals can and can not live, but there are areas safe for these people that don't require expense safeguarding in hurricanes. I guess there are cost impacts and civil rights issues both ways, but awareness of who and where those people are ahead of time I suppose is key.
In the county where I reside there is a large population of retirees...most of them are getting around just fine and have the means to evacuate themselves. For the special needs persons there are two shelters. All they need do is sign up at the beginning of hurricane season or prior to evacuation orders that they would require assistance to evacuate. The local Council on aging picks all of them up and safely transports everyone to the designated shelter...but not their pets.
This information is made available in every way possible here all year round....including television PSA's print media and even billboards. We all pay for these services for them. There is no logical reason for anyone in this county to say they had nowhere to go or could not get there if they at least care to do so. So after the storm the first responders are right there to save them even though they live in a mandatory evacuation zone and refused to evacuate. This plays out over and over here. Possibly some people are just suicidal!
That is not blatant bashing of anyone. It is one of the hardest to deal with facts of living in a hurricane prone area. Local law enforcement has to turn and walk away while confronting these people. They refuse to heed the warning. So first responders know right where to head first after a storm. It is extremely frustrating for the law enforcement community here and there is nothing they can do. When you have done all you can for people that is all you can do. So by speaking this I am bashing. No. I'll say it again. It has to be the hardest situation to deal with regarding hurricanes and it is extremely hard on the whole community and the residents here are not afraid to speak about it. It has to be discussed so less of this will happen in the future.
If anyone in another community has solved this problem please tell me how you you did it. I'm sure most other counties in FL would appreciate the information.

That's not an eyewall, just a tight band. If Beryl had time to strengthen it might become one, but she doesn't.
Stormy2,

The national gov't has proven, beyond any reasonable doubt, its inability to do anything quickly or cost effectively. Check out the evac from Lebanon this week for the latest example.

Parents are responsible for their children, and people for their pets. People should think a little and figure out a plan ahead of time, and don't have kids or pets you can't manage to take care of under all reasonable circumstances.

After that, relatives, friends, and neighbors should (and do, in all normal communities) help each other out. I can tell you that if my brother or daughter were in N.O. without a way to leave, I'd have driven the 800 miles to get them without a second thought, with spare gas in the trailer to make it back.

Beyond that, it's local gov't first, then state, that should be responsible. The further up you go, the dumber and less efficient any bureaucracy becomes. It's the nature of the beast.

Last, the feds can help out. I wouldn't trust a perpetual agency for anything but making a nice life out managing a terribly inefficient program to provide little immediate relief, followed by too much of the wrong relief way too late.

JMNSHO,
Asp
Just dropping in....
This conversation made me think of this site.
HurricaneBuddy.com
We have to do and look out for our selves and each other. Not excusing the roll that officials should play, but reality is what it is.

SJ
It's one thing to have subway tunnels and sewers below sea level...that's true of every coastal city. it's quite another to have the majority of residences in a city below sea level.

The real problem with NYC is there are just so many people there, evacuation would be incredibly difficult.
Posted By: tbonehfx at 2:39 PM GMT on July 20, 2006.
To answer Gwarnock's question,

THANKS!! Great information there. I was thinking about the low pressure sucking everything in -- never thought about where it went after that! :)

Geoff
Zaphod....WOW! More people need to read your post.
If you have pets and children you are responsible for their well being. There is no other way to look at it. If you have pets and live in a hurricane prone area and you have not made preparations for them....You have just missed a big one on the hurricane prep list. So I guess dying and or endangering the lives of your family rather than planning ahead for the pets is more important? What?
I agree entirely with Zap. Everyone needs to read this.
Population vs. Coastal living from http://www.environmentwriter.org/resources/articles/1202_coasts.htm

More than 53 percent of the nations population is estimated to reside on just 17 percent of the coastal strip of the U.S.

Since the first European settlers arrived in North America more than four centuries ago, Americans have preferred settling on a 50-mile strip of land along the shore. The 1960 census found that coastal counties accounted for 17 percent of the land area of the contiguous U.S and 53 percent of the population.

NOAA is projecting that coastal populations will grow by 27 million by 2015 accounting for half of the nations total population increase.

Some other numbers to consider:


14 of the nations 20 largest cities are in coastal counties;
17 of the 20 fastest counties are on the shore;
19 of the 20 most densely populated counties are on the ocean; and
18 of the 20 counties with the highest per capita income are coastal.
saddlegait - Good point, this would be a very good direction for local emergency management officials to take on: keeping track of the vulnerable people, gaining their trust over time, then springing into action when needed. Problem is probably the funding for something like this is practically non-existent. I know local officials are spread very thin, as my wife works for city government (even in a relatively well-to-do area she was pressed into service in 2004 as a volunteer, and she was happy to help).

Maybe some people are lurking with real experience in local emergency management who could comment on the state of their funding for hurricane planning, evacuation and relief?

From my own perspective, I can tell you that in recent years there has been much more funding available for research topics such as "Modeling dispersal of biological agents in urban environments" rahter than for simulation and modeling of hurricane evacuation and emergency response.
During any potential threat of a Cat 2+ storm to the Pensacola area - our emergency officials go door-to-door in the high-risk areas (these areas are those on the water; there are many, low income areas, and areas of mobile homes or poor structures) and help these people get out if they need assistance. This preocess takes time and involves hundreds of authorites assisted by volunteers. If a person refuses to leave they must sign a document which basically says they are taking their life in their own hands and are refusing to leave on their own accord. They also provide next of kin information in the event that information is needed.

During Ivan we had many people in one particular neighborhood that had refused to leave and perished in the storm, In some cases the homes were completely gone and authorities had to rely on the information that the homeowner had provided (which included a map of the neighborhood that identified who was located where on the map)prior to the storm.

In addition, I understand that many of the people that refused to leave were older people. They were just hard headed and stead fast that they were NOT going anywhere. Survivors of this area truly lived a nightmare and the local 911 operators received countless calls DURING the storm for assistance - which is impossible.

Ivan taught us here that YES it can happen - and it will most likely happen again. I bet they think differently next time. I think the same in NO will happen. What these people went through they will not want to go through again adn I do believe we all play a part in this. This community of educated, expereinced bloggers can help get the word out to neighbors, friends, family, church groups, etc. Evacuate, if you can not afford to evacuate then seek safe shelter. If you have pets there are pet friendly shelters now in most areas but get there early. The key.....know what your plan will be BEFORE you are in the path of a storm.

Good day to you all.
One of my jobs is Emergency Restoration at our county Emergency Operations Center. Having sat in there for Hurricanes Charley, Frances & Jeanne, I have seen the levels of activation rise from III to I in successive steps. I have seen the activation of the shelters and the use of media and reverse 911 systems to alert people and determine who needs assistance. Less than 17% of people that should be in either a 'General Shelter' or 'Special Needs' shelter respond / go to the shelters. While we make every attempt to assist when it's too late, sometimes we just cannot get to those that need assistance during an event. It's simply a case of 'Overcome by Events' (priorities of calls) or its too unsafe to respond to assist. We're trying to understand why this occurs and deal with it. Just my 2 cents! Thanks again for the weather system explanations -- maybe I can help with the Emergency Response / Recovery questions!

Geoff
guygee....Here in Martin County we have done all of what you mentioned and more. There is no funding problem here. Focus groups are conducted all over for these people. Every condominium association...every mobile home community....even going door to door trying desperately to get these people prepared for the inevitable.
Still we have the heartbreak after the storm.
...I've been fortunate - gone through the hurricane prep and evacuate many times but always get to return to a home that is safe and sound. It is easy to fall into a mode of trying to second guess and "will it away" when you've gone through the motions so many times... 2004 had me installing designer handles on my plywood pieces to make them easier to carry. :-)

As for people helping people - I agree but also feel that is an individual responsibility to create a network of help that works for you. I have pets, friends in low places (LOL...don't tell them I said so) with elderly parents that need assistance, and friends in high places that open their home. Since I'm the lowest of the low ...everyone converges on my house, we get it ready, pack it up and move to the next place. Everyone has a list of what they are responsible for bringing with them. I'm in charge of beer and ice. :-)

This plan works for us and we don't have to depend on government to get or keep us safe. BUT - this plan did not come to us in the mail with a prepaid addressed sign up card. It is up to the individual to make it happen - young, not quite old, elderly, people with pets, folks with kids ...doesn't matter.

The biggest benefit we get from this plan is that it makes it hard to ignore the evacuation warnings when you have friends show up at your front door, putting plywood on your windows and asking if you have purchased enough beer...
I agree with Zaphod other than I am impressed with our effort to get people out of Lebanon given the circumstances. You can't compare that to the Katrina fiasco.
But if you don't evacuate a life threating situation because of a pet, and put your family at risk then you are an idiot. Just like the people who decide to ride out a storm without food or water.
The only real victims are those that can't fend for themselves (Children, elderly etc.)
Zaphod - I agree with your post, except that I think the Feds should help more with funding for local and state efforts. They should also make sure through law enforcement that the money is not wasted on local corruption. There should be severe penalties for local corruption and buddy-system crony contracts, not just some wrist-slapping. As for direct action by the Feds, I think the federal givernment used to do a better job, but it's effectiveness has declined over the past few decades, so I agree it is the option of last resort for direct action.
I think Zaphod is less than impressed with the Lebanon evacuation...that is part of his point...
Randrewl - That is great to hear that you folks have it together down there in Martin county. I cannot say the same for Brevard county, although Satellite Beach is a small tight-knit community and does a good job with the funding it has. We have some city taxes here to help with funding.
Is it just me or does Beryl seem to be headed stright for New York with feeder bands getting ready to start effecting the city any time now.
"I can tell you that if my brother or daughter were in N.O. without a way to leave, I'd have driven the 800 miles to get them without a second thought, with spare gas in the trailer to make it back."

Zaphod and Randrewl: Clueless. If you have no way out of N.O., there's a good chance your relatives have no way to help you either.

Say, isn't this the site where everyone was all concerned about the cruise ship the other day? Because you "have hearts."

Try showin' it.

bobburg you did not have to leave NO to keep from drowning. As bad as the superdome was, it sure beats drowning. Making excuses for people who make bad decisions is not having a heart. Nobody wants people to die. That is why the "heartless" bunch believes in personal responsibility.
STPETEBILL it looks like Beryl is right on forecast track to me.
So far Kennedy Intl is only reporting 18 mph winds, and the stations on Long Island (eg Islip) even lower wind speeds...
That looks like an eye forming to me. I wish a HH was on its way but not till 2pm. Might still have the "feature" still by then. Plus I dont see this turn happening. Unless this thing is going to stop and make a right turn then LI's south shore and the MA shores around the Cape are going to see Beryl up close and personal.

BTW I am in NJ in the NYC area I think one news station made mention of it. Mostly "we will see a few scatterd sprinkles from the storm" kinda weather reporting. This area took it VERY lightly.
Dad gum my job! I had to stop with this and go to a meeting and missed some good conversation. Perhaps a good first step would be initiating into law penalties and edicts for NOT leaving when an emergency is declared that the authorities have determined to require "Mandatory Evacuation" such as arresting these people and forcing them to go to shelters - like it or not. It would be less costly to defend the harrassment lawsuits from enforcing it than to try to risk lives and money in trying to rescue them after they realize they DID mess up. If a policeman knocks on your door and you won't go, he takes you anyway, if you don't come to the door, he has the right to enter and search to make sure you are safe - perhaps even require leaving the doors unlocked - then enter - search - lock up after they leave. Sounds a little harsh, but it is harsher to see people on their rooftops crying that the gov. just isn't acting fast enough to save them.
Last night they had their own storm of the century over St Lewis. It looks like tornados - but I think it was straight winds that did it.

Storms cut power, snap trees, topple trucks across region
There is no eye, this storm is weakening significantly.
Good discussion today.I see both sides let me tell you where I stand.

People's responsibility
People must know what to do in each storm situation. Local communities must do more to inform people both before and during. In a small town/county this is easy, but in large cities with large uneducated populations(something that must be fixed, but this isn't the place for that discussion) this is difficult. Also a city has the disadvantage that different parts of the city are affected differently leading to confusion. Look at the evacuation last year of large parts of houston that simply didn't need to be evacuated. If only the people who needed to evacuate had left it would have been much smoother(ofcourse Houston is the biggest metropalitan area that is a likely target for hurricanes). Perhaps in the future each radio station in a large city can be used and only transmit info for each section and the people would only have to know which station is theirs.

Government's responsibility
I say people need to be categorized ahead of time into mobil/nonmobil. Basically this means you have the means to relocate or can't. If you can't you should have to declare ahead of time and the city can either use those #'s to construct safe locations inside the city(money source is another debate) to support that number or have the capability to move them. The fact is that evacuation CAN'T be done for all locations, we simply don't and won't have enough lead time.

A former director of the hurricane center proposed a "refuge of last resort", I propose a refuge of first resort. You can build building that could withstand the worst. You need build them up high enough(and if there is no place make one). Arrange for food/electricity/water for a week for these place. If a situation last longer we can arrange relocation, but with known numbers it would be easy.

Basically in my eyes the social contract between people and government requires that both do something. If a person doesn't declare themselves they release the gov of all responsibility, but if they do the gov must find a way to help.

This is my idea

Every tropical storm has a center of circulation.That center can be called an eye,but there is no eye an will be no eye of a hurricane.
Even after all of the problems with Katrina, Nagin still has not a simple plan to provide transportation for those needimg to get to whatever buses, trains, and planes FEMA has contracted with. The city must have a minimal plan, especially for the West Bank where there is still substantial population...the press is giving Nagin a free ride, they should be battering him.
"There is no eye, this storm is weakening significantly."

agreed..... we have already seen Beryl at its best....

think LI will likely not get much.... but as for cape cod..... guess we'll have to see if Beryl has any punch left!
"I can see the "stuff" in south florida and would concur that it is not the normal pattern. Pattern rarely brings morning showers..."-stormy

Exactly what I've been referring to - most unusual pattern even for the tropical rainy season; especially that extremely severe lightning event day before yesterday I was asking about. Does anyone know what is creating this change in the typical summer pattern for south Fla and does it portend anything relative to the major storms (hurricanes) this year? (I don't believe in predicting the current year based on past year just wondering if current changed conditions suggest anything for this season.)
tx - couldn't agree more. I felt for the people in New Orleans - TRULY I did, but our area got a lot of the so-called refuges - the theft, violent crime and drug trafficking rate increased substantially. You have to definitely identify those people ahead of time and you have to make sure you are working with them and keeping up with them all the while. The other problem was the population of "refugees" that not only drained FEMA but every local charity multiple times and profited from it. Had we identified the victims and had we worked together with sharing of information a lot of this would have been prevented - those people would not have seen THOSE avenues as even something to embark upon. We enabled a lot of it by sitting back and expecting SOMEONE ELSE to handle it and then we complained. As much as I don't want a "big brother" environment, I do think as a society we can work together and resolve much more than as individuals waiting on the next person to take responsibility for it.

A lot of the "criminals" did not start out that way, but they got thrown around so much and they sought the easy way out. If we somehow recognized those areas NOW and kept a census of who was in what area and where they should go in the event of a disaster, we could do just what you said - sort of like when we were in elementary school and counted off and then number 1-10 left, then 11 - 20, etc. That also requires the assistance of employers who must be willing to allow those individuals, and themselves to get that time off to evacuate instead of insisting they show up for work until the last possible minute. Each county in each "evacuation zone" could have a list of names and addresses of those evacuees designated to them and refer the others to their designated areas. It could go so smoothly planned in advance - even with millions of people involved. But, waiting until the last minute just does not work. It's costly either way you go when the actual event hits.
Beryl is rapidly weakening, also remember take 80% not 90% of the recon. No covection means storm don't get to ground.
good morning guys....
South Fla stuff last night it looked like a ULL above the Bahamas as to the cause Id been thinking the warm gulf stream has produced a hot spot over the southern Bahamas and Florida straight causing instability in the standing high(s) highs brought on by radiant cooling due to shear reducing nightly cloud cover - that is also giving everyone else much clearer than usual weather this year.
Beryl is definitley gonna turn to the east. you can already see the high building in to the west, getting ready to push her aside.
Don't have much time as I am at work and I have spent most of what I do have reading the great discussion.

I would like to raise this idea though and point out that most people do not want to leave.

Our building codes along the coast and the profit the builders make is absurd. We need to find a way to produce buildings and abodes that can hold up against most storms. This means if we are building in a flood plane then all of the houses should be raised. Homes should be built to with stand at least 150mph winds. I would like to elaborate more on this, but I gotta get back to work. I know that it would not solve all the problems, and I know that the implementation time on something like this would be many years in the future, but I think it would be well worth it. Certainly the many fat contractors and home builders could assists with the R&D costs, as well as help keeping the price of homes down.

See ya'll later

StormJunkie.com-Imagery, model runs, marine data, wind data, and much more.
saddlegait, one thing I waa taught a long time ago(in case i was ever in the position to be the one to issue a watch/warning, I chose a different path) was that weather isn't the only factor in issuing a watch/warning, you have to consider that there is a huge economic and psychological impact. Remember, if you are warned you get hit 1/10 of the time. What you mentioned with employers is exactly true, every time you issue a wtch/warning people lose money and become desensitized. When you've had 9 warnings and no storm you stop listening and say I've shut 9 times and lost, not again. Then the storm hits and thousands die.
I think there is truth in all sides of the discussion: personal responsibility is called for and we 'as a people' should help others less able to care for themselves and we should expect our local, state and fed government to do their part. As someone who has been through many many hurricane seasons in Florida and other areas up the eastern coast, what chaps me most is those who can, don't. There are problems in the government in pretty much all areas of government as far as I can see, why should their response to natural disasters be any better handled than any other area of their supposed responsibility? Not that that makes it okay but I don't know what the answer is for effecting change in that area.

But in the matter of personal responsibility there are hundreds (thousands?) of folks who are perfectly able, physically and financially capable of preparing adequately for themselves and even helping their neighbors who do not. Why is this? Why do competent adults in America living in hurricane prone areas choose not to prepare, choose to expect government help immediately in the aftermath of a storm? I'm sure everyone saw news pieces in 2004 and 2005 where long lines for water and ice had formed within 12 hours following storms. Particularly with Wilma when we had all had many recent prior occasions to learn from!

Our local emergency department does a great job informing people and helping those who cannot help themselves. One of the constant advisories is to prepare food and water for three days. Is that too difficult to understand? How can people be in lines in 12 hours for basics such as water and ice? The ice I pre-positioned in my freezers lasted four days without electricity after Charley due to proper preparation. How can anyone need ice within the first 12 hours???? (Not counting elderly, ill, etc.) I think there are difficult aspects of this issue but I do think personal responsibility is the first and foremost feature of proper preparedness. Thanks for letting me have a say.
- Danelle
Well said FLN. Very good discussion here. At some point action is required to change the current state of affairs.

That being said, and since we are talking about personal responsibility, check this site out. I think another WU blogger came up with this.
HurricaneBuddy.com

See ya this afternoon
SJ
OK, it's fine to say homes should be raised in flood zones, etc.. but how do you do that? Force everyone to rebuild? large scale urban clearing of people who won't be able to afford the new homes that are built?

Evacuation. Miami - Dade County strongly suggest that if ordered to evacuate, you do so, but you do not drive 50 - 60 miles to get away The guidelines are to hole up with friends, relatives outside of the evac zone. With only the Turnpike, I-75 and I-95 as major routes out of Miami/Ft Lauderdale Metro Area, you can't get the entire population away anyway.
I"m measuring a current heading of 025 degrees. If the heading doesn't change, 025 degrees puts Beryl into southern Rhode Island. But I do think it'll be gradually turning. NHC may have it too far east, though. It would have to average an 050 deg heading from the current position to hit the NHC 24 hour position, or an 059 deg heading from the 12-hr forecast position.


Here's a close up view of beryl's WIND SWATH.


FLAnative, good points I have an idea to compliment your perhaps. In my idea people declared themselves mobil,nonmobile. Maybe we could have a buddy sytem where the government would have people volunteer to help one other person out during the storm. The person would be assigned a person who would either stay w/them or who would leave in their vehicle. If nothing else this would save gas/pollution/traffic. Also this could add to communication between two distinct classes/races of people.
23, you might be right that the NHC has it too far east, but I suspect even if it did reach the vape, little real winds would hit the ground. This thing is losing convection awfully fast.
Here is a visible with the track on it....

23, would you be interested in a forecasting contest here. I think with people would learn a great deal and there would be bragging rights.
Good idea tx. I volunteer to give Shirley Temple a ride and you can pick up Pollyanna on your way out of town. Whew, glad that is taken care of. Oh, Get Real.

Can't imagine being out of ice 12 hours after the storm. Imagine not having any money. Eating bacon greese sandwiches for the week until the next food stamps come in. Imagine the horror of not having a freezer, not having electricity even at times since the bill doesn't get paid, not having the money for ice, gas, fixing the car that won't start, etc. etc. Man, you people are classics.
Posted By: Buhdog at 8:56 AM EDT on July 20, 2006.

By the way, Buhdog, thanks for that post. Our local forecast showed the usual "40% change of scattered afternoon thunderstorms" Actually that is TWC online. They say that every day even though lately there has been nothing scattered about the storms and they are beginning far earlier in the day than afternoon.
Hurricane Warning

Since Beryl is approaching New England and the northeast now I have taken all available data up to 1 pm and have made an impacts analysis of Beryl on Hurricane Warning. This will provide information on what can be expected from Beryl as it goes by including a wind, rain, wave, and storm surge forecast. I have also included all the latest information on forecast path and intensity in the update. Recon updates will continue to be posted in my blog.
With the complexity of postmodernism there has been an aesthetic push towards simplification and specialization. People want less clutter but it HAS to be there when they need it. This combined with innovation in distribution has led to a situation of people being perpetually unprepared and hostile towards anything different. Stores dont back stock it goes through a distribution centers. Same with fuel and other commodities.

It is all very efficient and marketable - but when it breaks it REALLY breaks and leads to extensive hording and inhumanness in crisis.
Tx - yes, and to tag onto your idea ...every interstate in every major city has a sign with a "carpooling" phone number at darn near every mile marker. This initiative did a lot to encourage carpooling. Why not take that same concept and apply it toward evacuations? Maybe there are people out there without a network of friends and family. Provide an "evacuation pool" phone number. This can work similar to the car pooling concept - get hooked up with people in your area and work together to evacuate.
sickmick, I have lot more experience with storms than you can imagine. People do help people in crisis. Even starbucks stopped charging for water in 9/11. If you don't want to fine, but others can.
Posted By: nola70119 at 4:17 PM GMT on July 20, 2006.
Even after all of the problems with Katrina, Nagin still has not a simple plan to provide transportation for those needing to get to whatever buses, trains, and planes FEMA has contracted with. The city must have a minimal plan, especially for the West Bank where there is still substantial population...the press is giving Nagin a free ride, they should be battering him.


I lived in New Orleans about 8 years ago. As a Social Service worker I went through some disaster training back in the 90's and there was a plan for getting people out of the city. It just was not implemented the buses were left to flood instead of moving people out of the city. Has anyone every compiled a comparison between the number of buses used to evacuate people for Katrina and number of buses used election day?
txweather - The Emergency Management Center has a list of 'critical care' / 'immediate care' patients and people that need to be looked out for and moved to shelters. That list is populated by the people themselves, often at the behest of their personal physicians. When we move from a Level III (Monitoring) to a Level II (Preparedness) the media assists with event updates and asks for those that need transportation to arrange it OR contact the Emergency Operations ("Management" moves to "Operations" once out of Level III) Center to update information and make arrangements for transportation to shelters once they are opened. If they CANNOT get transportation, they are asked to contact the EOC and make arrangements.
Shelter openings are coordinated by location and type of event (usually hurricanes) and 'pet friendly' is one of the PRIMARY concerns for getting shelters open. We have less probelem with those people needing medical assistance than we do with those that have pets and WILL NOT leave their home unless there is a shelter for their pets.

Another issue is that unless we are physically UNABLE to do so, OR we live in housing that cannot withstand a moderate windstorm (mobile and some prefab structures) we need to be able to take care of ourselves for at least 3 days with food and water. The service & utility infrastructure usually needs at least 3 days to regain some form of functionality. We are NOT talking about New Orleans here -- that place had more problems than a math book that included political, sociological, engineering, basic mitigation strategy (or lack thereof) - we're talking about the 'rest of the world'. "Prepare of the worst and hang on for 3 days" - that's the price for living in paradise!!

Geoff
Sickmick

The parenthetic comment in my post (elder, ill, etc.) was intended to include all those truly needed. Sorry if that wasn't clear. I was referring to the people in TV photographs (post Wilma SE Fla) who were in the water lines within 12 hours who drove up in SUVs and fancy cars and trucks wearing designer sports clothes and dripping jewelry. They didn't seem to be the needy.
beryl has a big eye...??????
the truest indication that beryl is a weak storm...we are all here arguing politics and planning instead of talking about beryl...

and does it drive you crazy to hear the weather channel people pronounce it Burl? It's bear-el. like the mineral.
Has anyone noticed in the latest CMC model run they seem to be predicting some closed off circulation forming off the coast of Africa at about the 144hr mark?
its still july guys, were lucky were on B.
Gwarnock. your points are well made. I was actually thinking of people who are, due to lack of car/money unable to go. Your point on having enough to last 3 day is important and something people need to remember. I agree NO was messed up in too many ways to count. It was about as functional as the police squad in Naked gun Movies, it would have been funny if it hadn't of been for the deaths.
Yeah Gulf I have noticed that. It is very odd indeed. Don't know if this is just going to make for an extremely active August, Sept and October, but it seems like pulling teeth for anything to have a prayer in forming in these regions.
Hurricanes are a part of my life .My love for these monsters started in 1992 after hurricane Andrew completly destroyed everthing i owned.Right now iam trying to get my meteorology degree in collage here in south florida.
Haha, when we finally get a storm you guys are still upset.
10-4 txweather.
I truly believe that every municipality and larger have looked over their EOP's to ensure they aren't in the news in the event of a natural disaster for their INABILITY to get folks out of the area. Bus systems, fleet vehicles not required for response / restoration will all be used. The only GOOD thing that came out of NO are the volumes of lessons learned at ALL levels of preparation, response and recovery plans. I'll let ya'll get back to talking 'Beryl' so I can learn about that stuff! :) Have a GREAT day everyone!

Geoff
Florida straight or Bahamas GS?!
RW - I thought it was pronounced like "barrel" too, but from one of the advisories...

THE CORRECT PRONUNCIATION OF TROPICAL STORM BERYL IS BERLE... LIKE THE LAST NAME OF MILTON BERLE
remember they looked it up, both are acceptable
Wind shear for most parts is gone.....
sea surface temps are higg
dry air is staying the east atlantic

NB: if any disturbance, will take advantage..


Oh yeah, where's STORMTOP. i need him to give me a forecast for the next 11 days
For those who missed it earlier, (this is a must read update btw, very detailed)

Hurricane Warning

Since Beryl is approaching New England and the northeast now I have taken all available data up to 1 pm and have made an impacts analysis of Beryl on Hurricane Warning. This will provide information on what can be expected from Beryl as it goes by including a wind, rain, wave, and storm surge forecast. I have also included all the latest information on forecast path and intensity in the update.
Guys sorry forgot recon is almost into beryl...





i need someoen to answer this for me..

If they were to name a storm Bush...wud there be political confusion...

and do hurricane names cause problems in politics
LOL...456
The straights look like there gong to produce the Blob Du Jour But the BOC is also to get REALLY interesting though! Arhhhh
were did here that?
stormw u mean la nina
159. SpyRI
Just got the first rain here in Southern RI. I doubt Beryl will be as strong as the crazy lightning/wind/rain storm we had here on Tuesday night! There are trees down all over the state already, so I hope that any that would fall in a TS have already fallen down. Keeping my fingers crossed that the huge (and shallow rooted) tulip tree in the yard doesn't fall. My husband just got the surfboard on the car and we're heading to the beach. If it's interesting, I'll take some pics, but don't think it will be as good as a nor'easter.
Heading in Now .....


It is a HUGE problem, our society tends to think that unless we have a consensus, we can't decide. When it comes to saving lives, preventing further cost impacts, etc. I don't think consensus should be the issue. I know people choose to live in those areas due to the majority of the time being just a lovely life, but they have to accept responsibility for that decision when impending weather occurs and they have to be willing to cooperate. Going out and buying a generator and stomping all over everyone else to beat them to all the goods isn't the answer.
162. V26R
Hurricane23 Where'd you get that shot from?
Looks Cool!
Tropical Storm Beryl will make landfall in Mass. You can put that in STONE!!! LOL J/K
Its called an over lay on goole earth.

ALMOST THERE!





On evacuations:

The rule of thumb (for the Southern Florida peninsula, at least), is "go 2 miles, go 20 miles, do NOT go 200 miles". This in reference to those in Dade/Broward/Palm Beach. This to me makes all the sense in the world. 2 miles gets you inland from the coast. 20 miles gets you all the way inland or north or south to a shelter or safer house.

In other words, LET THE ROADS BE CLEAR for those in the Keys that have to make a LOT further north in less time. What was the last estimate? That it takes more like 36 hrs to 48 hrs to evac the Keys? Less than the warning time?


;)
LEE- 143 PM EDT THU JUL 20 2006

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN FLOOD ADVISORY FOR... CENTRAL LEE COUNTY IN FLORIDA. THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF FORT MYERS

* UNTIL 245 PM EDT

* AT 143 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR AND SPOTTER REPORTS INDICATED RAINFALL RATES OF TWO INCHES PER HOUR FROM A THUNDERSTORM OVER THE ADVISED AREA.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM THIS STORM WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS AND INTERSECTIONS. MOTORISTS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION AND ALLOW EXTRA TIME WHILE DRIVING.
AT 200 PM EDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERYL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 39.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.6 WEST OR ABOUT 125
MILES...200 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF NEW YORK CITY AND ABOUT 195
MILES...315 KM...SOUTHWEST OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS.

BERYL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 11 MPH...17 KM/HR.
THIS MOTION COULD BRING THE CENTER OF THE STORM NEAR THE
SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF MASSACHUSETTS TONIGHT OR FRIDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.
169. 0741
i donot see this making land fall it pass near cape cod but is not making landfall
VORTEX MESSAGE COMING SOON!

On construction:

I would think as far as wind damage, the safest construction would the those structures closest to the ground. In fact, if you live in a home that is largely underground, exposing only a domed roof, you are in great shape.

As far as water damage, the safest construction would those structures that are completely elevated off the ground (like the houses on stilts I saw in Tavernier/Islamarada recently). The higher, the better, so long as the pillar supports can't be washed away, even with debris crashing against them.

Now with all that said, isn't it bitter irony that coastal residents can only have one or the other, but not both?

Too bad SoFla is inside out... the safest areas to be (inland) are protected from development and otherwise uninhabitable (Everglades).
sunrise, yes - we hear the same here - go to friends and family in a non-evacuation zone, no need to drive to Iowa. That is what the officials state but then the hype of the media scares the crap out of everyone and the interstates are jammed with folks that are trying to get much further away then needed ...

and then, in the case of Charley, they end up evacuating right into the path of the blessed thing.
Almost near the center...


LewisFL

I did not know that adolescent teens could be classified as grad students.
I wonder how many people stay home and at risk because there may be greater risk being trapped in endless traffic and exposed to the storm? One has to decide which is the greater risk and it isn't an exact science.
YEA!!!!! U GOT IT!456
Shrink it some...but great job.

GulfScotsman, while I certainly abide by the 2/20/200 comment, in reality it seems few others do. People go into a panic and think they have to hop in their car and head for Orlando (which has the most hotel rooms of any city on the entire planet, at least count)... only to risk being hit there or on the way there.

But beyond that, it is distressing to see people go into "every man for himself" mode before and after a storm, disregarding those that are in far more desperate conditions.

(ie clogging the roads or making the lines to get gas or water or whatever long when you already have plenty, causing others in need to go without)
"But beyond that, it is distressing to see people go into "every man for himself" mode before and after a storm, disregarding those that are in far more desperate conditions. (ie clogging the roads or making the lines to get gas or water or whatever long when you already have plenty, causing others in need to go without)"

Amen, Sunrise

That was another point I was going to bring up Stormy2day. People just don't seem to get it through there heads that in the time it takes you to evacuate any distance, a storm may have already changed its target.
Exactly, Sunrise.
I live 20 miles south of Charley's ultimate landfall and about 30 miles North of Wilma's west coast landfall. It was tough to decide and Dr. Master's info and this blog were invaluable.

*their* (sure wish I could edit my dumb typos ;)

you can edit them sunrise it take a lil longer tho see the preview beside post comment?

Here's how I look at it, FLAnative... I am as far inland as I can be at my latitude (right at the edge of the Everglades, 14 miles inland I think). If I am not safe, then no one in the area is. And those closer to the coast need those roads to get the heck outta Dodge.

And people if you are not stocked up already (tsk tsk), remember that people used to live without electricity, without gasoline, and on some parts of this planet (or closer to home if you look hard enough), people live with less food and water than we typically stock up with.

The goal should be first to survive, second to be comfortable. If you are running to the store as a storm approaches but have already reached that first goal, maybe you should stop and think about it.

Has anyone tried the weather.com gold at $19.99 per year membership? What are your opinions? Or recommendations for alternatives? Thanks.
My personal evacuation plan takes me 10 miles from home - to a friends house in a non-evacuation zone. But, I have to tell you, while Charley was aiming at us the local media kept showing simulations of how pinellas county would become two small islands. Where we were, in the simulation, we would have been left sitting atop one of those islands cut off from the rest of the world - we were a little rattled and even though we ended up staying where we were ...we almost bolted.

My point being - officials were giving calm, clear and logical information regarding who should evacuation and how far but the contrast of the media hype got to a lot of people. I understand that - I was watching the simulation and almost did the same.

Thanks will40, I am typical programmer. "It'll work" as I press the button, only to say "oops" later.

I was referring to editing it after the fact as I reread it in context ;)
I always thought that the comunnity effort after the storm was much more impressive then the "everyman for themself" attitude. That was after Hugo in '89, so maybe things have changed more then I thought.

StormJunkie.com-Models, imagery, marine data, wind data, preparedness info and much more.

Thanks all :)

Back to work:(

SJ
gulf ...LOL - maybe I should have clarified ...the panic part was due to wondering if we had enough beer to be stranded on an island...
DO NOT PANIC.


I'm freaking out already!!!!!!!! AAAAAHHHHHHH
media hype got to a lot of people

one of my major pet peeves - why are the media about ratings instead of about useful, accurate info? The media could be incredibly effective in helping local and state officials coordinate effective preparations and/or evacuations. Instead, they hype the possible or potential drama without regard for the psychological, at least, impact on people such as someone mentioned, showing images of previous storms and damage that are completely unrelated the current situation.
FLN, I think the free info you find on the web is as valuable if not more so then any pay service I have seen. Now, you may be able to get some individual analysis that you can not get on the web, but as far as getting good data on the storms, the best info is free.

That is why I have my site. Now I do think paying the WU to keep the ads to themselves is well worth it :)

SJ
SJ

THANK YOU! Just what I was hoping to hear. Will def review your site. :)
The media is going to do nothing to help. If they say something like "oh..everything's fine, evacuations are going so well and it looks like human suffering is going to be minimal due to great planning!" the entire universe will tune them out. So, instead, they project everything short of or including armaggedon in order to keep watching. I guess it's human nature to want to see the worst of the worst, but I think the media could actually change that. I wouldn't mind hearing how a plan worked or how others can help to make it work together. They can pick and choose what they show and what they show someone saying or not saying - it slants the view and it makes them feel oh so powerful. I do believe there should be some accountability in terms of media. It isn't like we are watching a Wild Kingdom special where they won't go in and help the dying animals - humans are involved and yet they have the same theory on helping them - don't but make sure you get shots of the suffering!
FLN - I agree with SJ - StormJunkie.com is a great resource and WU has most everything you would need. Besides, the folks that have the pay to view weather services come onto this blog and give us the scoop for free anyhow.

PS ...pay the $10 to WU to kill the ads and pop-ups and settle in here.

My take on the media hype is that a) your local news is part entertainement, part information (much like this blog) and they are competing for viewership and advertising $ just like your favorite television program, and b) if the news were droll and always the same old same old, people would watch it less.

Personally, I don't watch local news at all and haven't in a decade. I get my info from the net and print media, and only tune into local stuff during the actual storm "window".

Oooo will that Circuit City ad that's driving me CRAZY on here go away when I give up some bucks?
well said saddle.

Having a coastal home, most "close calls" have come from surge yet I am always left in frantic mode trying to find information regarding surge forecasts in comparison to tide tables, etc. That kind of information is far too boring for the media to take up time with ...
I am the same way - very seldom watch television or the news - local or national. I come to places like this with accurate and useable information. Our local media lately spends more time on hollywood gossip than actual news and weather anyway. THen, apparently knowing that the really ONLY important thing on the agenda is weather, they give a million teasers in between commercials and couch talk with guests about what is to come. By that time, I have already hit WU and checked in here and am way ahead of those guys AND... I didn't have to sift through the commercials or the personal promotions of the media staff.
LOL Sunrise...I was going to say I agree with Saddle and "voted with my feet" and turned off the media and stayed at WU instead and was glad I did!

Oh yes, Stormy, paid up WU member since last season. You guys are the best!
LOL sunrise ..yes, give up the bucks and circuit city is gone!
You know...that's really disgusting. The tornado that hit our house - they did not even admit existed until about an hour after it hit. They were just too busy with other programming to step in and tell us. We live rural and so the population isn't such that we are a part of their "chosen" audience or something - that is...until you want to see the pictures of the damage! They have carte blanche with what they do and they all want to be Oprah or something these days - it is too exhausting to even try to keep up with it.

So...here's to the geeky blob watchers and all the information they provide - ... oh...sorry can't send the stuff over the net - oh well, picture a nice cool beer or pina colada or jack and coke - I'm downing them for you! Here's to you!!!!!
Raising my glass in a toast as well!

(Yeah, it makes the keyboard sticky to try to send it over.)
Hey, dial up people. We just got a satellite internet service. They are normally unbelievably expensive, but there is the new one. Installation is free. Yes, the equipment cost is $299.00 but that's not that bad by comparison. Monthly is $49.95. I pay for an extra phone line and a dial-up service currently, so that isn't even a bad deal. I have that cut off and the monthly is covered. If you want to know more, I will find the information for you.
hilarious post turtle ! thanks !
Saddle, how is the speed compared to cable?
Looks to me like Beryl is really taking the turn east now - or is that just the beer.
DO NOT...DO NOT UNDER ANY CIRCUMSTANCES...spill the beer! ....unless you have another one.
I don't know - they are installing next week. Our friend that has it - the speed is the same as what I have here at work. I'll come right back with the website, but I am not sure that is permissiable. I am not trying to sell it, I am just excited about getting it - we can't get cable - they still pipe in sunshine. Is it o.k. for me to give the website? So far, the biggest issue is just like satellite television, if there is a big cloud - sometimes the signal gets blocked.
I think our friend who keeps making all the pleasent posts recently must have spilled his - I'd be in a bad mood too.
He doesn't act old enough to buy it.
Spilling the beer isn't nearly as annoying as spilling the Jack - now that's a waste!
224. PBG00
Does anyone have a link to show where the bermuda high is?
You know.. the GOM Blob is spinning - it isn't as bright as it was yesterday, but it IS spinning - any opinions on that! Maybe the gulls got into the hooch?

saddlegait, i was thinking about getting satellite internet... here is what is preventing me from doing so:

After all those years of cable TV and either cable, dialup or DSL (now it is DSL) internet, I finally sprung for DirecTV (being annoyed with a 70$ cable bill for TV i didnt watch).

Well Katrina came (wimpy for us) and turned the dish enough to where I lost TV as soon as the winds and rains picked up. 13 days before I saw a TV picture again.

Wilma came and ripped it completely off the roof and slammed it by the cable against the side of my house for 5 hours. Ironically only 10 days to get it fixed this time.

During both storms I had internet access (well with Wilma it was kinda hard with no power for the first 40 hrs).

Nowadays I notice the signal craps out at the beginning of every rain shower.

So in conclusion, I am hesitant to put all my eggs (TV, internet, work) into one basket!

Now build it into a roof structure (ala solar panels) and I will jump on board with both feet. Besides, if I lose the roof, I don't really need TV or internet anyway.

:-D

Yeah, we are pretty sure we will have to keep some source of dial up as back-up, but we can at least loose the extra phone line - of course, we have a 14 year old who will probably try to attach herself permanently to that line once she realizes it is "available". We can't win in that one either so... here's another toast! We will at least enjoy not waiting 15 minutes for the next screen to appear in between serious storms - here lately, that will be ALWAYS since it doesn't even rain anymore.
Saddle, take it from the mom of an almost 16 year old: get her a pay-as-you-go cell phone and let her earn the "pay" part. Peace all around. (And cheaper for you.) SORRY, way off topic gang.
YOU GUYS - YOU WON'T BELIEVE IT - The clouds are developing right on top of us here! It's GOING TO RAIN - HERE'S ANOTHER TOAST...AND ANOTHER ONE AND ANOTHER ONE....WOOO HOOOOO!!!!
THanks Fla - great advice and sorry about the topic thing everyone else. I don't think there is a storm possible that could stress us out more sometimes! I think we have the same perspective on parenthood that the New Orleans politicians have on hurricane planning - something like "what the heck were we thinking!"
massive waves rolling off africa....two silent killers in the atlantic
"THE CORRECT PRONUNCIATION OF TROPICAL STORM BERYL IS BERLE... LIKE THE LAST NAME OF MILTON BERLE"

what a crock of &*$#..!

Do the first names of Meryl Streep and Merle Haggard also sound alike?
Hurricane Daniel.....beauty divine
456 - WHERE in the Atlantic
there are two waves in the atlantic currently with no convection.

LINK
u say my picks 456?

Check this out!

The 18:00z Models have it at 130 mph,948 mbs
saddle ...don't be talking about that spin in the central GOM ...Gulf picked on me for that yesterday and I had to schedule an extra therapy session. it isn't spinning...it isn't spinning...it isn't spinning...

Oh man... sorry to open old wounds. I forgot Gulf picking on you yesterday. You can't expect a lot more out of a scotsman - they've picked on the irish for years - he probably thinks you are irish for some reason. You know, then, if it blew his house off its foundation he would still say it wasn't spinning...

Just kidding Gulf, don't make me cry today.
there is a spin in the GOM, it's just an upper-level spin. remember, most of the spins don't do anything tropical.

here's what nhc is saying: "In the upper levels... a
small cyclonic circulation is over the NE Gulf near 26n88w.
Cyclonic flow with moisture is within 180 nm radius of the
center."
Sorry for the long delay -- my son had World Series Baseball, and won! Nothing more fun than watching a 10 year old win a baseball game, even in 100+ heat.

Guygee and others who thought my earlier post was "harsh" or "uncaring"......

I do care, about me, mine, ours, and yours. That's why I tend to be painfully honest in my opinions of gov't abilities and personal responsibilities. I also care about the local Emer Mgmt people who risk their necks trying to save some idiot who thinks that somebody in a nat'l agency will take care of him.

Note that if we didn't have such a bloated nat'l gov't that tries to take care of everybody, there would be more local money available to spend. Why send money to Washington and have them spend half before sending the rest back, poorly allocated and with strings attached to boot? Why not tax locally, give locally, spend locally, and help where you can?

After Katrina I helped arrange a relief ice truck that ended up diverting to Rita first reponse. A friend and his crew used his nice big SUV (filled with volunteer helpers) to tow his nice travel trailer (filled with provisions) to meet up with a tractor trailer filled with ice. Each day the tractor made a round trip, and the team unloaded it, mostly to people who had lost everything. The driver on day 4 (different drivers different days) said that the entire previous week he'd driven a FEMA ice truck that meandered all over LA and MS before returning, still full, to a warehouse further east, simply because of mismatches in trucking versus distribution resources. They next day my friend's crew split in half, each two man team unloading a tractor trailer of ice, because the guy knew of another FEMA trailer sitting full of ice as well.

Would better organization help? Sure. Can it be done efficiently, or at all effectively, by the gov't? From what I can see, no. To duplicate the effort of a volunteer network of part-timers, the gov't would create a centralized pool of full-time policy makers, staffers, a bunch of warehouses, and a nationwide network of "regional offices" with lots of talk and plenty of well-meaning activity, and still when the storm came there would be nobody to empty the ice trucks.

JMHO,
Zap
hurricane23..yeah i saw them..rated some
Who cares how to pronounce Beryl !!! She's ending up to just be a little teaser.
Zap.. totally agree.. well said.

Congrats on your son!
...I can tell I have a lot of learning to do here - good spin, bad spin ...

shaken, not stirred...
besides, we have to announce GOM spin sitings every once in a while to make sure that you all don't forget about watching the backdoor of your Gulf friends ...been spending way too much time over the past few days watching the yankees!
:-)
Guys i think i found another LLC IN THE tropics check this out....all it needs is some convection now.
The good Dr. has posted a new blog
Hear hear - and THEY don't even care until they get to the south and start trying to change it!