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Beryl intensifying

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:26 PM GMT on July 19, 2006

Tropical Storm Beryl spent the night looking pretty ragged, but is starting to put on a burst of intensification. This morning's Hurricane Hunter aircraft just left the storm, and reported a central pressure of 1004 mb at 8am EDT, down 1 mb from the previous advisory. The plane found winds as high as 52 knots (60 mph) at 5,000 foot altitude, which corresponds to about 50 mph at the surface--a 5 mph increase from the 5am advisory. Satellite imagery shows a large blow-up of thunderstorms with very cold tops on the southwest side of Beryl. These cold tops mean the thunderstorms are reaching high levels of the atmosphere, and are therefore very intense.

If we examine the sea surface temperature plot for this morning (Figure 1), we see that Beryl has just started crossing the axis of the warmest waters of the Gulf Stream. These warm 27 - 28 C waters are probably responsible for the current burst of intensification. Beryl is moving north and should stay over these warmer waters until tonight, so we can expect continued intensification today. Once Beryl gets north of the Virginia/Maryland border, SSTs cool rapidly, and intensification should cease. Wind shear is currently 5 - 10 knots, which is low enough to allow intensification. Beryl will probably not spend enough time over these warm waters to make it to hurricane status, but New England may have a strong tropical storm with 60 mph winds on its doorstep Friday. Note, however, that the two primary intensity forecast models used by NHC--the GFDL and SHIPS--predict that Beryl will only be a weak tropical storm with 45 mph winds on Friday when it approaches New England.


Figure 1. 3D image of sea surface temperatures for July 19, 2006. Beryl is headed due north across the warmest waters of the Gulf Stream current today. Image credit: NOAA Environmental Modeling Center.

Beryl is expected to continue moving north today, then turn more to the northeast on Thursday as a trough of low pressure approaches from the west. Just how strong this trough is will determine how close Beryl passes to New England. Some of the forecast models are forecasting a strike on Long Island or Cape Cod Friday, but the official NHC forecast of a turn out to sea just south of New England sounds more reasonable, given that no July tropical storm --and only one July hurricane (1916)--has ever made landfall in New England.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The rest of the tropical Atlantic is quiet today. A large cloud of African dust has just pushed off the coast of Africa, which should keep things quiet over the eastern Atlantic the rest of the week. There are no indications that Beryl's formation presages the beginning of a more active period in the Atlantic. Wind shear is expected to remain seasonably high for the rest of July, and none of the computer models are hinting at any development over the next week.

There will not be a Hurricane Hunter aircraft in Beryl until 2pm EDT. I'll be back with an update around 4pm today when the aircraft has had time to sample the storm.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

nothing to worry about with this one. Just something fun to watch to get us warmed up!
Impressive surface temperature image. Where do us normal people find daily images of this quality?

Wouldn't African dust increase the likelyhood of 'thunder storm' development? (Newbee!!) If not, why does it decrease the likelyhood? (we wanna know! Really!)

Thanks
I thinks it's the dry air associated with the African dust that will inhibit tropical cyclone formation.
Beryl..a hurricane??????
Morning all.

Welcome aboard Red an geo.

There is a link to where those SST maps came from.

There are also some nice AVHRR SST year to year comparison maps in my blog.

StormJunkie.com-Models, imagery, marine data, wind data, preparedness info, and much more.

See ya'll later.
SJ
Ok, my question is if Beryl does come straight up over Long Island and over RI, will it make the water all churned up and less likely to have a bigger storm later in the season?
Good Morning All:). Been following this blog a couple months and thought I'd try a piece 'o the pie!

Yay...."...the rest of the tropical Atlantic is quiet today...."
hi all,

Didnt Bastardi predict that New England(?) was overdue for a storm this year and said it will happen..? hmmm
11. IKE
Dr. Masters said..."Wind shear is expected to remain seasonably high for the rest of July, and none of the computer models are hinting at any development over the next week."....

The NAM has a 1008mb low in the gulf in 84 hours...plus the FSU model hints at a low in the gulf this weekend. Is it a non-tropical low???
Even if Beryl hit New England, which she probably won't, Bastardi being right is much like STORMTOP being right - throwing darts at a board randomly will eventually hit the bulls-eye.
dr. says high wind shear but maps showing large areas of low wind shear....across the atlantic and gulf.......July has one more storm
New England that is vary bad news they had a lot of rian if this make land fall there will be a lot of flooding wish they do not need keep this storm a way from New England
Did'nt Bastardi say Major Hurricane hit on the northeast not a weak Tropical Storm?
17. IKE
Gulfscotsman...the NAM model isn't working right now. Never seen that happen before. I'll keep trying. They have a 1008mb low south of NO in 84 hours. Think it's from the system south of DR and Haiti.
ForecasterColby

I agree...there's a big difference when making a WAG (wild a@@ guess) than a prediction that includes data to support your conclusion. Not that both can and should be accepted on here, just that when one gets excited about these, makes you laugh...now...for my wag of the day....florida will have rain
The NAM has been so silly this season. Yesterday it had Beryl hitting the outer banks.
21. IKE
The panhandle of Florida will have rain this weekend with the trough coming down. The GFS model suggests that too. A front should stall north of the gulf coast and provide rain.
Thanks Dr Masters for the update, I love nowcast in 3-D..lol.
23. IKE
The GFS is just as bad. Latest model run has Beryl as a 1016mb low....uh...it's at 1004mb!
NAM: Link
Thanks for the update DR Masters and the nice 3D graphic.

Have a good day all.

Patrick
That NAM model is not something I would get all hyped about. Now showing only 1012mb. Looks like a wave only.
yea.... i really don't understand why so many problems with initializing models correctly????

if you put crap into a numerical formula, you get crap out!

oh well..... guess thats why we have so many models..... one is bound to be right! LOL

i agree with Dr. Masters, 6omph, or 65mph is not out of the question at all.... although i certainly dont see "hurricane beryl" on the horizon.....
computer models aint for me....I go by maps and common sense
N=Not
A=Accurate
M=meteorlogically
Hurricane Warning

Since there is alot more information and data on Beryl today, I have made an In-Depth analysis of Beryl on hurricane warning. It contains forecast scenarios and talks of the possible strike on New England. It has very important information that all people should be aware about.I will continue to update with Recon information on my blog.
does anyone realise that between 1995 and 2005, that el nino years..didnt stop intense hurricanes from forming..........
the pressures at buoy 41001 continue to rise, but we did match the highest wind gust so far at 9:50am, with a gust of 36.9 knots (42mph).... winds still from the south....

with the pressure rising, yet still getting strong gusts.... just another indication we are undergoing "some" intensification......
Weather456...Yes. I don't use El Nino. I just use common sense.
38. 0741
what is that in gulf? on nab model
There is nothing in the Gulf. Sorry I ever mentioned that model.
hi all, newbie question, re: swirl in central atlantic, if there is no clouds/rain around the system, what is the swirl made up of?? i think i understand that the shear is blowing away any convection that might try to happen, but what keeps it alive and continuing to do the whirlpool look, thanks jo
Are you saying Beryl is about to expose herself?
The models run as well as the data in them and there is probably not much previous history for that set of weather events....unlike the traditional hurricane paths.
jo, low level cumulus clouds. Little puffy ones. Like the kind you see on a fair day.
thanks tampacat, what about the rest of the question "but what keeps it alive and continuing to do the whirlpool look, thanks jo"
jo
Beryl now at 50 mph....


833
WTNT42 KNHC 191442
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM BERYL DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022006
1100 AM EDT WED JUL 19 2006

THE LAST RECON PASS THROUGH THE CENTER OF BERYL THIS MORNING
INDICATED THE PRESSURE HAD DROPPED ANOTHER MILLIBAR DOWN TO 1004
MB. FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS AT 850 MB WERE 52 KT IN THE EASTERN QUADRANT
IN CONVECTION...AND THAT IS THE JUSTIFICATION FOR INCREASING THE
INTENSITY TO 40 KT. ALSO...THE CORRECT PRONUNCIATION OF TROPICAL
STORM BERYL IS BERLE... LIKE THE LAST NAME OF MILTON BERLE.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 360/08 KT...WHICH IS A BLEND OF RECON
...SATELLITE...AND DOPPLER RADAR DATA. RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
SINCE THE LAST RECON FLIGHT AT 12Z SUGGEST THAT THE CIRCULATION
CENTER MAY BE UNDERGOING SOME RE-ORGANIZATION CLOSER TO A BAND OF
STRONG CONVECTION THAT HAS FORMED IN THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT. AS
A RESULT... THERE MAY BE SOME WOBBLING TO THE WEST UNTIL CONVECTION
WRAPS AROUND THE EAST SIDE... BUT THE OVERALL MOTION SHOULD BE
NORTHERLY AND PARALLEL TO THE U.S. MID-ATLANTIC COAST IN THE SHORT
TERM. IN THE LONGER TERM... THE FORECAST TRACK HINGES HEAVILY ON
THE INTENSITY AND STRUCTURE OF BERYL. THE GFDL...GFS...AND NOGAPS
MODELS MOVE A VERY WEAK BERYL ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...WHEREAS THE UKMET...CANADIAN...AND ECMWF KEEP THE
CIRCULATION CENTER MORE OFFSHORE. HOWEVER...ALL OF THE MODELS KEEP
THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION WELL OFFSHORE. SINCE BERYL IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN A VERTICALLY DEEP SYSTEM... THE LATTER SOLUTION OF KEEPING
THE CENTER OFFSHORE IS PREFERRED GIVEN THE LARGE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TOWARD THE NORTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES THAT IS EXPECTED TO CAPTURE THE CYCLONE AND MOVE IT
NORTHEASTWARD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST TRACK AND IS A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE GUNA MODEL CONSENSUS.

BANDING FEATURES IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE HAVE IMPROVED... AS HAS
THE OUTFLOW PATTERN. BERYL IS ALSO MOVING OVER SOME OF THE WARMEST
WATER ALONG ITS PAST AND FUTURE TRACK. HOWEVER... THESE FAVORABLE
INTENSIFICATION CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SHORT-LIVED AS THE
VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE WITHIN 12 HOURS...AND THE
CYCLONE WILL ALSO BE MOVING OVER SUB-26C SSTS SHORTLY THEREAFTER.
SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE BERYL MOVES OVER
MUCH COOLER WATER BY 24H...WHICH SHOULD INDUCE SLOW WEAKENING AS
BERYL TRANSITIONS OVER TO AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 19/1500Z 35.6N 73.7W 40 KT
12HR VT 20/0000Z 36.6N 73.7W 45 KT
24HR VT 20/1200Z 37.9N 73.1W 50 KT
36HR VT 21/0000Z 39.6N 71.5W 50 KT
48HR VT 21/1200Z 41.3N 68.6W 45 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 22/1200Z 44.9N 61.5W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 23/1200Z 47.0N 52.0W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 24/1200Z...MERGED WITH EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE
hey Gulf.... think you are losing it! LOL
..BERYL GETTING A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT CONTINUES MOVING
NORTHWARD...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH DISCONTINUED...
beryl is 45mph
"THE CORRECT PRONUNCIATION OF TROPICAL
STORM BERYL IS BERLE... LIKE THE LAST NAME OF MILTON BERLE.:

LOL..... want to thank the NHC for that! :D
53. IKE
So Mrs. Milton Berle is a fish storm. Only question is...what kind of fish???
Is this blog working again?
something is wrond i was trying to post a huge message and poof i couldnt get back in...its done that a few times.
finally!!!!!!!!!
Beryl has recently had a pretty good size blow up of convection. There is still an outside chance she could make hurricane status. Unlikely, but still should be considered.

The CIMSS Imagery seems to still shows her moving a hair W of N. It also shows that the structure around the center is continuing to increase and winds are on the rise.

For the storm tracker in all of us check out the Quick Links page at StormJunkie.com

Back to work. Catch ya'll later.
SJ
i agree SJ..... i think certainly 60-65mph winds is not out of the question, and thats "just below" hurricane threshold....

nonetheless, BERLE appears a fish storm!

But if i was in long island, or cape cod..... think i'd be monitoing things closely!!!
I live in Cape Cod, Massachusetts. At this point what should I be waiting for at this time. If, a big IF, Beryl was to become a hurricane what intensity should we be prepared for?
75mph...i think
that cimms prioduct is awesome.... you can see that about the time the storm reached the "gulf stream", is when it started re-intensifying......
No weather456. I mean, the meteorologists keep saying that she would weaken before she was to come near this area. I was just asking for the intensity we could see of her. I also want to know what JB is saying about her also, if anyone can help me out that would be great.
i would say that if BERLE is able to reach minimal hurricane status, thats about it.... (yep...75mph)

certainly 65mph is not out of the question, but i sorta doubt hurricane status will be reached.....

but as i have stated before, the gulf stream is a "boost" of energy that Berle can feed off of!

i still like the name "frick" better! LOL
This morinig Beryl's banding features have improved in the eastern semicircle.Right now its moving threw some warm SST'S bit that will change sooner rather then later as beryl will incounter colder water meaning 24h sst's and also should begin to encounter increaseing shear within the next 12 hours.So in gerneral i expect beryl to strength a bit but then begin a weaking process and transition into an extra tropical system. Adrian

Here is a close up visible pic of beryl...




Thelmores - I see your Frick finally grew up! Do you feel like a proud parent? :-)

I'm here for a quick second, trying to catch up on what's happening out there and I pulled up images of the Gulf. Is something (other than my imagination) trying to get started in the Central Gulf?

-stormy
oopps, the wave in the Atlantic doesnt look as good as yesterday...
Is that an eye forming in the lower left side of Beryl?
Central Atl. wave is deffinatly lost it's signiture
Possibly, chessrascal. It depends on where the center is ending up. Beryl (is that brrrr-lee?) is looking much healthier with the big burst of convection on the northwest side of the storm.

By the way, 40kt=45mph :D
For those who missed it earlier,

Hurricane Warning

Since there is alot more information and data on Beryl today, I have made an In-Depth analysis of Beryl on hurricane warning. It contains forecast scenarios and talks of the possible strike on New England. It has very important information that all people should be aware about. I will continue to update with Recon information.
Right now I read in Accuweather.com that the Central Atlantic wave have a change to develpo because the SST are more warm and the wind shear is low... I am confused... anyone can explain me what will happen with the wave????
Thel... I looked at the imagery - sure looks suspicious!
75. IKE
Looks like she's intensifying...those thunderstorms racing into Minnesota...part of the trough that will force her NE..
One item to stress here. This is a petpeeeve of mine so its something I feel i need to mention. SST and impact on storms. For example the MYTH is that Hugo hit the gulfstream and exploded. Not true, the cause of Hugo'a rapid intensification was an ULL that developed off to the SW that tremedously helped outflow. Now SST does assist, but its effects are subtle at first and increase with time. It doesn't account for rapid changes right when the storm moves over warm sst. How many times have we heard "this storm might really get its act together as it hits the gulf stream and it didn't happen. Now there are times that does happen, but usually its a slow moving storm. In reference to Beryl, the shear lessening has allow convectiopn to devlop and STAY over the center and this could lead to some moderate intensification(until shear and cold SST have their way, just like pacific systems).
Another example is Gilbert, it was a good 5 as it hit the yucatan, but afterward, while going through water that was well high enough to support a 5, it never reestablished the outflow needed to support a 5.

I don't want to give the impression that SST isn't important, IMHO it sets the upper limit. But, to reach that limit requires time. thats why a storm going along the gulfstream will get a boost, but one going perpendicular won't get a significant one.
definitely looks like intensification, nice thunderstorm right over center, lets see how much it can strengthen before it leaves the gulf stream.
Since no one has humored me with a reply I'll assume the only thing building in the Central Gulf is my imagination. :-)

I'm out of here - check back later to see what Beryl decides.

-stormy
Thanks tx very interesting perspective.

Never knew that about Hugo, but then again I was without power for three and a half weeks, so the only real information I got right after the storm was what I could see he had left in his path.

thel that CIMSS MIMIC imagery is awsome, that is why I have posted it several times.

Now as for the SSTs tx, I know there are a lot of other factors, but that being said, from the Drs map and the comparison maps in my blog, it looks like there is some fairly warm water all the way up to about Long Island?

SJ
80. IKE
Looks like just showers in the gulf. A lot of moisture is headed that way in 3-4 days from the eastern trough bringing that moisture northwest and north.

Rain for the gulf states...GFS has it at 1/2-2 inches per 24 hour period.

There's a gulf forecast!

New GFS model....has Milton@1016mb. Can't they redo their model runs based on what Beryl actually is???
Have a great day stormy.
Sorry at work and just stopped in for a minute so I did not get to check the Gulf.
Sorry Stormy2day, let me look at the gulf in more detail and i'll get back to you.
IKE, for one, the dynamic models take like six to eight hours to run so they are always a little behind when we get them. Look for new models at 2 and we will have to see what those say. Also, track is a little easier for the models then intensity usually.
86. IKE
A FLOCK OF SEAGULLS!!!!!

I RAN SO FAR AWAY!!!!!

And I had forgotten about that song!@!@!@!@!@
Check out the CIMMS loop from 18-Jul-2006 22:00 through 24:00. The red bands in the upper right corner show that the weather modification mafia is back. Mark my words...Beryl will be a hurricane and will hit Long Island or Cape Cod.
It seems a little early to be getting Tropical Storms. Does anyone have any idea what the season forecast is like? Do you think anything could hop accross to the UK this year?


Snapper925
New GFS model....has Milton@1016mb. Can't they redo their model runs based on what Beryl actually is???

Models (except for the GFDL) are so coarse that they cannot resolve the very small area of low pressure in a tropical cyclone (unlike extratropical storms, a tropical cyclone usually has a very tight pressure gradient). this is why even intense storms like Rita are shown to be in the high 900 mb range; such as this archived phase diagram (the color indicates the minimum pressure). Note that this shows the lowest pressure of all (more here).

By the way 1/2 degree (GFS) is about 35 miles at the Equator, as a comparison, Wilma's eye was only 2 miles wide at one point.
i dont think beryl will get to hurricane strength
BTW, foxnews is showing a live battle in Lebanon.
well thier done covering it for now, it was cool though
East Central GOM is starting to heat up. Do you guys see what I am seeing. A blob starting to intensify! This may be the begining stages of something. Upper level winds are appear to be weak on top of this blow-up. Do you think this is the area of disturbed weather that the model is showing in the 84 hour time frame. What are your guys/gals thoughts?
Observations on Beryl:
*Getting better organized
*Moving slightly west of North
*Intensifying
*Staying over warm Gulf Stream waters
*Most warm water is close to shore and there still is relatively warm water up to Long Island along the coast.
*Well organized storms tend to intensify faster than expected.
Conclusion:
Beryl will be up to 65mph or greater over the next 24 hours. It will brush Montauk with 60mph winds, threaten Cape Cod, clip it, and then go Extratropical. Long Island is unprepared. The storm will hit long island 36 hours from now. Many downed trees and tens of thousands without power, but not much more.
My advisory for this afternoon:

Tropical Storm Beryl
Amateur Hurricane Center
www.theahc.webhop.net
Advisory 2 - Noon July 19, 2006
Written by AHC Forecaster Colby

Beryl has strengthened somewhat this morning, despite moderate northwesterly shear. A recon flight indicated winds of 52kt at flight level, and a 1004mb pressure at the surface. Therefore...initial intensity is 45kt(50mph). Beryl is moving northward, but the center has been reforming under deep convection to the northwest of the current center, so the average motion is to the north-northwest. However...an eastward drift has become evident in the past few hours, so it's likely that once the center reformation is finished, Beryl will be moving NNE.

Beryl's current north or north-northeastward motion should continue for the next 12-24 hours, followed by a turn to the northeast in response to an extratropical system passing to the storm's north. A northeast motion should continue until absorbtion by the extratropical storm in 96-120 hours.

Beryl is currently passing over the very warm Gulf Stream, and will be for the next 12 hours or so. After that...waters under Beryl will become sharply cooler, and vertical shear will increase. Therefore, the forecast will call for strengthening to 50kt(60mph) in 12 hours, followed by weakening until Beryl is absorbed by the larger extratropical system. Land is no longer threatened by Beryl, and hurricane strength is now quite unlikely unless Beryl manages to remain over the Gulf Stream much longer than currently forecast. Rains from Beryl will not further affect the coast.

Initial: 35.5N 73.1W 45kt(50mph)
12 Hour: 37.0N 73.0W 50kt(60mph)
24 Hour: 36.0N 72.5W 50kt(60mph)
48 Hour: 38.7N 69.0W 40kt(45mph)...becoming extratropical
72 Hour: 40.0N 63.3W 40kt(45mph)...extratropical
96 Hour: Absorbed by extratropical system near 43N 59W


Snapper, the year is above average, but a tropical storm in mid to late June isn't early at all. By this time last year, Category 5 Emily was menacing Mexico - but even now, we're well above normal activity.

A hurricane hitting the UK is pretty much impossible...the waters are just too cold, and the atmosphere too hostile. Granted, I'd have said the same about Spain, but Vince was hardly tropical by the time he made landfall.
agreed Gulf, BERLE has more bark, than bite, at this point.

i would say the biggest concern from BERLE would be the possibility of small tornado's at any potential landfall location (long island, cape cod). they can do a little damage.... other than that, a puff of wind, and some thunderstorms.....

That thing in Minnesota is not a supercell, it is a MCS (mesoscale convective system), which is also what a hurricane is; a MCS is any organized group of thunderstorms.
Stormy2day, I've looked at the blob in the gulf and no immediate danger. Conditions aren't horrible for development, but we just don't have a surface sytem to tak advantage of the conditions.
GulfScotsman....Oh no! Not seagulls?
holy cow.... that other MCS is much more scary that BERLE! LOL
"Beryl will be up to 65mph or greater over the next 24 hours. It will brush Montauk with 60mph winds, threaten Cape Cod, clip it, and then go Extratropical. Long Island is unprepared. The storm will hit long island 36 hours from now. Many downed trees and tens of thousands without power, but not much more."

geez, is that ALL!! LOL
"but the official NHC forecast of a turn out to sea just south of New England sounds more reasonable, given that no July tropical storm --and only one July hurricane (1916)--has ever made landfall in New England"

I've never understood this. Each storm is different, and sees different conditions around it. Why would it matter what past storms did without considering the conditions surrounding them? Especially in a time when there is so much more heat energy in the air than in July's past.

It just seems lazy and stupid, along the lines of every other "We've never had a flood/storm/earthquake/volcano/tornado/tidal wave/fire/drought do that here before" story that usually proceeds immense destruction and the subsequent "how could we have known?" platitude.

Are there steering currents that could drive this thing to landfall, or not?
does the old wave of africa have any chance?
It just seems lazy and stupid, along the lines of every other "We've never had a flood/storm/earthquake/volcano/tornado/tidal wave/fire/drought do that here before" story that usually proceeds immense destruction and the subsequent "how could we have known?" platitude.

LMAO!!
hurricaneman23, that wave I expect will pop back up in the caribbean, at the time when conditions will be extremely favourable....
"Are there steering currents that could drive this thing to landfall, or not?"

Msystic, in alot of ways a hurricane is a giant "physics" model, which is ran on topography that has been the same since the NWS started keeping weather records well over a 100yrs ago....

so given the numbers, it is rare that new england gets hit. and is proven by the fact that "given that no July tropical storm --and only one July hurricane (1916)--has ever made landfall in New England"....

but having said that.... the "controls" for our giant science project are not the same, thus the error is possible

so can this storm hit long island??? yes, but according to "meteorology" and the "physics", its not likely.....

but if i lived in long island, i would certainly be making preperations just in case. better to err on the side of caution, even if there is just a 5-10% chance! ;)
but if i lived in long island, i would certainly be making preperations just in case. better to err on the side of caution, even if there is just a 5-10% chance! ;)

All you need to do to prepare for a TS is bring in loose stuff, no shutters.
whirlwind -> "Didnt Bastardi predict that New England(?) was overdue for a storm this year and said it will happen..? hmmm"

I think he said a "Major Hurricane" which would be extremely rare. I believe there has only been one since 1851 (The 1938 Hurricane).


i was talking more of being pepared to be without "ELECTRICITY"! ;)
I think there have been more than 1, but no others spring to mind.

Mystic, previous storms (i.e., climatology) provides a useful tool for forecasting, but it's not all that's relied on. A large low will be going along north of Beryl and steer her northeast.
looks as if in the last 45 minutes, the cold cloudtops on BERLE are diminishing....

we may have saw the best of BERLE already????
Probably the best thing that could happen is for the Northeast US to have all that Beryl can muster as a TS. I say this for just one reason. The population at large in this area needs to know that it can happen and that if predictions like Bastardi's do come true this season that at least you had a wake-up! Even in your basic run of the mill TS these areas would lose power...phone service and vegetative debris would be everywhere. Not to mention the flooding if it is a wet one!
I seriously doubt that Beryl is the storm to wake you people up but you need to know that it can happen and very likely will this season. Be ready!
"other preparations for a mild tropical storm include an ice cold beer and a coney island hot dog.

just mustard please."

nicely put Rand! ;)
Mysticdog, history is a great guide. It shouldn't be the only guide, but in most situations it works pretty good. Despite the media reports, the worlds climate has undergone little sensible change(some but not enough for us to notice). If there is warming as far as impact its been trivial. For the the record, in reference to Beryl look at the image

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/dataphod1/work/HHP/NEW/2006199at.jpg

Right now beryl is crossing the gulf stream but as you can see even thought the surface water is warm, the depth is very shallow and has little energy to give north of where it is now. In addition shear has just stepped off the train and is going to put this storm in its place quite soon.

so even IF it did go north and hit hand it would be like an afternnon storm, little more.
thelmores...Thanks. I have an inside link to the thinking of these people cause all ot them eventually move down here. Those that have moved to South Florida just laughed and were not even slightly prepared for what has happened here in the past two years. Now they are still waiting for their new roof! They are prepared now!
txweather...Well said.
There may have been another major hurricane to hit New England in 1869 but they are still very rare.

In reference to the link that txweather posted, this is why the heat potential in the Gulf is so high (click for a larger image):

Found this tidbidt on Accuweather's site
A third tropical wave in the open Atlantic is near 35 west, south of 16 north. There could be development along this wave over time, as well, since waters are progressively warmer in the path of the wave, and there is no significant shear in the region.
GulfScotsman....Yeah....that's always the best way...that throwing the furniture in the pool thing makes it harder to actually breathe will sitting and drinking beer!
While
132. IKE
I agree Gulfscotsman...im keeping an eye on that wave. Should head west then north with the approaching cold front. Should be a central/eastern gulf coast rain event..if nothing more.
133. IKE
Hasn't ST been a no-show since Milton formed and I think that's written in stone!
Beryl has gained structure and strength for the most of the day. The center is much better organized then last night. It also looks like she is moving a hair W of due N. The new GFDL and GFS should be out around two. I tend to think Beryl will at least pass over Cap Cod, if not Long Island. There has not been an E component to the movement yet that I have seen.

CIMSS MIMIC imagery

See ya'll later
SJ
Good afternoon everyone. Has anyone noticed the blow up of T-storm activity out in the central GOM?? That looks like it could be something to watch.
138. iyou
Thank-you! We don't mind being called geeks! ,-) Have a wonderful day!!
GOTTA LOVE THE GEEKS!
Hey losers, why don't you do something better with your time than talk about weather with strangers. You all are GEEKS.

Whats wrong with being weather geeks?
142. iyou
Yup!!! And anyway, sticks and stones!! lol!! Weather rules~~ lol!! ,-)
Considering the blog that Dr. Masters did in May on the Loop Current and the implications of a Gulf filled with eddies of warm water, I am surprised that he hasn't said anything about them, especially as we will have to pray that no hurricane gets into the Gulf this year.

Look at this (from his blog on the Loop Current; I placed the current map next to it):



As you can see, it is in Step 3 right now, except that there is also an old eddy present as well; the old map can be found in his blog.
Absolutely nothing! I am proud to be a geek!
I noted that blowup in the Gulf last night. Looks like an ULL right now, its got the SSTs to develop and the shear outlook looks favorable. Worth keeping an eye, eh?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-vis.html
Dang I thought we were cool.
GEEKS RULE!!! Especially Weather Geeks!!! LONG LIVE THE WEATHER GEEKS!!!
150. iyou
LOL!!... ,-)
Long range loop out of Dover gives a nice look of the west side of the rotation
Link
"LewisFL at 5:40 PM GMT on July 19, 2006 Well unlike you guys, I have a live so I'll have to pass" huh, maybe you should be attending school instead of annoying us geeks
Hey Gulf. Not to sound stupid here, but did you report my response to Lewis as obscene or just his?
With all respect for people with different opinions stated above, I think I am more with Mysticdog in his statement above. Using climatology instead of current and predicted future conditions to justify a track forecast doesn't make much sense to me. Every storm takes place under different surroundings, and the fact that only a few July storms have come ashore in this area should be a reason to look even closer at the possibilities instead of dismissing it with climatogy.

Also people should consider that sustained high end TS winds over an area that has not experienced a similar storm in many years can cause a lot more damage. Large deciduous trees in full leaf that haven't been tested by strong winds for many years will be "pruned" with large limbs coming down or uprooted altogether in large numbers, causing much more damage than you might expect. If Beryl intensifies and hits Long Island or New England, it will cause more damage than if it was coming ashore in the hurricane-hardened areas of the southeast U.S.
Hey MichaelSTL... I've been paying attention to the loop current in the Gulf doing that for a while. It's pretty much a given that something will form in the gulf this year... and if it does, it could get very nasty very quickly. I've been telling everyone to watch the gulf for over a month now.
I think she'll do it. I think CAT 1 Beryl skirting Martha's Vineyard tomorrow morning. The Outflow channels and the SST's are just enough for her to get to at least 75mph.

According to this, a Cat 1 around Martha's Vineyard is impossible at this time, unless Beryl really speeds up after intensifying.
LOLOLOL Turtle that's too funny :-P
LewisFL: Hey losers, why don't you do something better with your time than talk about weather with strangers. You all are GEEKS.

This coming from someone who only posted to make fun of other people. You must be a real winner in real life. Why don't you get out of moms basement and get some fresh air, the adults have things to discuss. You should go buy a comic book or something. Maybe a Barbie. That's more your level.

Ya, a Barbie, that's perfect for you nancy boy.
GulfScotsman...I wouldn't know about the polar jet! I know Bennie and the....no, wrong!
I'm observing that seagull mess north of PR.
Link
Wed Jul 19 2006
1733 GMT
Latitude 32.0 N
Longitude 76.0 W
No turbulence
Currently flying in the clear
Flight altitude 9908 feet (3020 meters)
Flight level winds 990 degrees at 5 knots (5 mph)
Temperature 7 C Dewpoint 2 C
Surface winds Unknown at 5 knots (5 mph)
Remarks: AF309 0302A BERYL OB 07 CCA

Looks to be going in. I'm not gonna get to watch it all so post some vortex messages for me:)
The "jet" to the northeast is from the outflow; in a classic hurricane, there will also be one to the southwest (this is where the hurricane symbol comes from). Here is an example of a Southern Hemisphere storm that has both (in the opposite directions).
GulfScotsman...LOL....You know I'll be watching the PRF!
The wave at about 75W will be at about 85W in 36 hours, putting it at the bottom of the gulf, over the loop current, and at fairly low wind shear. It's worth watching, and yet nobody has noticed it yet.
Geek Alert--- Can someone tell me WHY that blob in the Gulf won't be something to watch?

That "Maximum Potential Wind" map for the Atlantic seems like a bad joke. It implies a Cat 4 off of Cape Hatteras would weaken to below a TD by the time in gets east of the Delmarva...Any idea how they calculate these "Maximum Potential Winds"? Is it for genesis only?

We already saw "Father of Beryl", the unnamed subtropical storm that reached up towards the Canadian Maritimes, put lie to the data in that map.
Guys (and gals) ya'll know I am mostly a lurker and a newbie but I think ya'll are great. Some of the sense of humor (yes, GulfScotsman I mean you) in particular are priceless and add wit and charm to the science (and fun) of studying the weather. I've noticed a number of lame-brains in the last couple of weeks who come in just to bash bloggers in here. My question is - why are they in here to start with if they consider watching the weather nerdy? And why don't we just do our thing and ignore them? Well, I've pulled up my lawn chair and cooler for the season whatever happens.
Here is how they calculate the maximum potential intensity - note that SSTs are NOT the only thing used (watch out - arcane equations).
Anybody know where the individual city air quality reports have gone on the WU site?
Posted By: Caffinehog at 6:10 PM GMT on July 19, 2006.
The wave at about 75W will be at about 85W in 36 hours, putting it at the bottom of the gulf, over the loop current, and at fairly low wind shear. It's worth watching, and yet nobody has noticed it yet.


I wonder if that's what the NAM was trying to pick up on.
quakeman55...Yes I believe it is. But there's that NAM thing again.
Apparently the Cape Verde wave we were talking about is moving at "Donkey Speed"

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS RELOCATED BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
HOVMOLLER DIAGRAM TO ALONG 47W S OF 19N MOVING W 15-20 KT.
ASSOCIATED SHOWERS ARE FROM 10N-25N BETWEEN 45W-53W.


Those who did not see the post from SJ yesterday will not understand Donkey Speed.
RE Climatology
I find using climatology is often a great help when the various models show diverse tracks or when looking at the longer range track (more than 3-5 days out)
if i was in cape cod, i may be a little concerned....

i see no evidence of a eastern component of motion yet.....
I know about Donkey Speed! It's about as fast as Frances moved over my house. Real slow.


This says the SST's are at or above the 28 degree point. The convection is still popping in the center. The mimic (microwave imagry) shows it's more defined structure. I think 75mph is just within reach.
There is a big blow up of convection fairly close to the cneter of Beryl. This may be all it takes to get it to CAT 1 if it persists.

Back to work, wish I could stay and chat with the other weather geeks like myself :)

StormJunkie.com-Models, imagery, marine data, wind data, preparedness info and much more.

CIMSS MIMIC Imagery....Must see this if you have not.


Are the GFDL and GFS still showing landfall in the NE? Have not had time to check.

See ya'll this afternoon.
SJ
53rd - Look carefully at the scale - it goes up to 25 C.
MichaelSTL - Thank you for that link. I know that this model is widely accepted and useful, but I think we should be careful not to use any model in situations where they are not applicable. For example, if you look at the equations, there is no time dependency (disregarding recalculations for new inputs from an updated run of the MRF), so it follows that this model would not apply (in an extreme example) to a fast-moving CAT 4 off of Cape Hatteras moving northwards to a position east of the Delmarva peninsula. In such a situation, it is obvious we would not expect a major hurricane to completely collapse to below a TD within a few hours.
53rdWeatherRECON, agree with you
Nash28: I second that emotion.
What is it and which way is it going?
No it goes to 28 C. You look carefully. Can anyone else confirm this besides Michael.
Sorry, referencing the "blob" in the Gulf...which was is it going, Doc(s)?
okay blob watchers, you might want to pry your eyes off Beryl and her attempts to cover up her southern exposure long enough to take a look at the Gulf off the Mississippi/Alabama coast. A bunch of little bloblettes have been growing like hives for most of the day and the big one looks ready to pop. Normally I wouldn't care, but since most of the Gulf is under such low shear (including our own GulfScottsman to go by his posts - just kidding Gulf) something interesting might just be afoot.

bloblettes
Oops. Way. I also don't like what's over Puerto Rico. We can't get sandwiched between systems, can we?
guygee - That is why I said that Beryl would have to be moving quickly after reaching hurricane strength to reach the Martha's Vineyard area as a hurricane. Also, this page (the first link on it takes you to the link that I posted earlier) has this information in it:

Hurricanes cannot be expected to develop where the potential intensity estimate is small or zero; but storms moving rapidly from regions of high potential intensity to regions of low intensity can be expected to maintain strength well in excess of the local potential intensity estimate.
MichaelSTL...So based on that statement Auntie Miltie has no chance of doing that.
53rd, I agree the AVHRR maps show sufficient SSTs almost up to Long Island to maintain, or maybe intensify a system. I also agree this area is warmer then normal for this time of year.

That being said, the AVHRR does not represent depth of heat very well from my understanding. Buoy readings from that area would give us the best idea.
195. SpyRI
Hurrican Carol in 1954 was a big NE hurricane- totalled the port of Galilee here in Ri. I think there were also major hurricanes in 1815 (which is supposedly comprable in strength to 1938) and then there was the Great Colonial Hurricane of 1635 which had the Pilgrims thinking that God was mad at them!
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StormJunkie- That's a pretty awesome link that you are spamming.
The most exciting part is just seeing Jersaey creep into the picture. I'm from NYC, but have a house out on the east end of Long Island. Looks like I'll be picking up sticks! Hopefully that's it. Well, I'll probably have to pull the deck furniture out of the pool, again!
recon updates on my blog, 50 kt observed
While the maximum potential intensity maps are right most of the time, there are cases in which storms form in areas with very low potential (Hurricane Vince is one example).
900, my take is if it is on topic the it is not spamming. Just my opinion ya'll.

SJ
200. IKE
That system in Minnesota....WOW!
Hey Spy, Gloria wasn't too shabby back in '85... I'm sure more substantial in CT where I was though...
MichaelSTL - Thank you, that explanation makes sense to me.

When you first posted the map, I didn't realize the output was from Emanuel model for maximum potential intensity. I plan to take some time over the next few days to study those equations to gain a better understanding of his model.
56 kt observed.
scratch the 56 kt, bad ob, highest was 50
Based on the intensity maps, hurricanes can maintain themselves over water cooler than 80 F; notice that it shows Cat 3 or higher potential outside the 26.5 C (80 F) line in the central Atlantic (storms don't usually form in this area, but Epsilon did, and the water was cooler than it is now). This makes sense when you consider how many storms remain at hurricane strength or intensify in those areas. On the other hand, notice the area that is around 28 C but has low (Cat 3 or less) intensity in the southern Caribbean.
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StormJunkie-
Decent point. It's an awesome grapic nonetheless.
Here in NYC clouds are coming in from the East and the wind has turned East, although just a little, so much for our cold front, dang it, back to humidity!
Looks like a mild move to the east on the radar, convection firing east, could be short term, we'll see. I think we are gonna be at at least 60mph by 8 or 11 tonight for Beryl. I do think it's gonna hook right just when the center is of of the DelMarva, we'll see, near miss or near hit??
TO SpyRI
Hurricane Carol in 1954 was a Cat 1 at landfall in New England.

The 1815 storm may have been a Cat 3 since there was an 11-foot storm surge in the Narragansett Bay.

The Great Colonial Hurricane of 1635 was just too early to estimate the strength.

The 1938 storm was a confirmed Cat 3 at landfall.

I just checked the IR loop in the GOM and the disturbance out there is really blowing up nicely. Not sure if it is trying to delvelop a LLC but I am curious if this "blob" is beginning to develop tropical characteristics...
Is this surface wind turtle?
Beryl is really blowing up nicely. I believe She will be a hurricane by tonight.
Since they're still flying it can only be flight level winds. Surface is less.
here is the lastest:



11 knots reported
correct EDT to GMT
11 knots! Wow...and here I thought we had a hurricane brewing!
The recon posistion is nowhere near the center; in fact, it is over land.
Posted By: Randrewl at 3:13 PM AST on July 19, 2006.
11 knots! Wow...and here I thought we had a hurricane brewing!


Look at where the plane is on the map

RECON is over land....they havent reach water yet and they havent start measuring pressure yet
Let's not get into this today. Don't start running the mouth till the reports are in...all I'm going to say.
969
URNT12 KNHC 191915
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 19/18:34:20Z
B. 35 deg 57 min N
073 deg 29 min W
C. 850 mb 1447 m
D. 50 kt
E. 223 deg 025 nm
F. 311 deg 056 kt
G. 223 deg 026 nm
H. 1003 mb
I. 15 C/ 1524 m
J. 18 C/ 1526 m
K. 16 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345/ 8
O. 0.03 / 2 nm
P. AF309 0302A BERYL OB 09
MAX FL WIND 56 KT SW QUAD 18:26:30 Z
SFC CNTR WITHIN 5NM OF FL CNTR
then there was the Great Colonial Hurricane of 1635 which had the Pilgrims thinking that God was mad at them!

You would think that rationalizations such as these had changed. There are people in the Florida Panhandle who think that we were hit by Ivan in 2004 and Dennis in 2005 because it is a popular destination for the gay and lesbian communities on Memorial Day weekend. Some think that these storms were God's punishment...no joke!
yes sir. Its much better to specutlate on systems that may form in the Gulf.
To PensacolaJo

If you stand on the railroad track long enough you will get hit by a train!
correct EDT to GMT
Hurricane of 1635 may have been cat 3 and cape verde storm

Link
at 2:34pm EDT, max fl. level winds were 56knots...
am i the only one seeing a nne current motion???? at this point the official forecast should show at least due north, if not a bit nne....

that last burst could put it near huricane strength....

could we have a huuricane hit long island????

On the last loop on the visible sat there is some spin to the thunderstorm complex just SE of South Florida! Does anyone see what I am seeing?
I dont think anyone wud beleive but the lastest report measure 81Knots at FL level

000
URNT11 KNHC 191913
97779 19094 40372 75100 18300 04030 14081 /2553
40525
RMK AF309 0302A BERYL OB 12
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Looks like Beryl is blowing up!
probably in the 60mph (55knot range) if not stronger. A few more hours like this and we will have a hurricane.
Ahh..the flock of seagulls is over water! And I ran so far away...
dangit, dont know why, but i have geographic dyslexia! LOL

i see nnw motion for BERLE.... anybody?
81 knots? I think that means thet Beryl is a hurricane, not a 60 mph TS.
To NaplesPatty
It certainly might have been a Cat 3 - Here is a link from that same souce that is an interesting read about the 1635 storm.
Maybe slightly west of north. If She sticks to forecast path a turn to the NNE should begin soon.
Scotsman, maybe that "bloblet, blow up, flock of seaguls" in the GOM is the Hattiesburg low resurrected.
239. IKE
A flock of seagulls rotating in the gulf and developing...amazing!
beryl having dinner

241. IKE
One hit wonders ......
What's 81 knots FL about 65 knots surface? I wouldn't be surprised with the latest convective burst, Beryl has gained some serious symmetry and appears to be experiencing zero shear...the strengthening wobble could be interesting.
we better start getting a east component of motion soon... or else!
"81Knots at FL level"

holy bejesus!

if thats true, that extrapolates to at least 75mph on the surface!!!

Hurricane BERLE?????
there is no doubt about it Beryl is intensifying....it is not a 45mph storm anymore...

no more reports yet
the 81 knots doesnt make sense the plane lattitude and longitude is over land yet the winds are still 81knots from 140 degrees bearing

000
URNT11 KNHC 191913
97779 19094 40372 75100 18300 04030 14081 /2553
40525
RMK AF309 0302A BERYL OB 12
should we issue at least a TS warning for long island????

this could turn nasty!!!!

at the present speed, long island is 24-36hrs away???
isnt wind the 6th group, not the 7th?
Neva really witness a storm this close to LONG ISLAND...maybe Ophelia
So...do you guys have any idea what is going on in the Gulf of Mexico? Is that another harmless upper level disturbance?
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How that's some convection:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/avn.jpg
BEST GUESSES ON 5 PM WIND SPEED? I'm Guessing 60MPH conservatively.
Example:
URNT11 KNHC 161227
AF967 0212A LILI OB 08 KNHC
97779 12314 40169 82508 04000 22020 25218 /0007 42115;

Winds. The sixth group is the wind measured at the altitude of the airplane. The first two digits are the wind direction, to the nearest ten degrees. Wind direction is reported similar to compass headings, where 360 or 0 degrees is north. In the code, 09=east, 18=south, and 27=west. The next three digits is the wind speed in knots. Multiply by 1.152 to convert to miles per hour. In the above example, "22020" is a wind of 220 degrees (blowing out of the southwest) at 020 knots (23 mph).
The blob in the GOM is certainly interesting and bears watching. I'd say it's a KEO (Keep an Eye On). I'm not sure yet, I'm going to wait a bit and see if the convection can continue into the evening. If it persists, then it would be even more interesting. It's a little too early to tell yet. All of the ingredients are there, we'll have to wait and see what "cooks up".
Link
This is probably on here but I just walked back in.
257. iyou
New blog up folks!
the 7th, which is the 81knots....is where the wind were.....
Hurricane Gloria went right over LI and up the CT River valley in 1985... I was in the eye, I think that's why I'm in this blog today. That and I live in a very unprepared Tampa Bay.
How much closer to land can it go before interaction (a) weakens it or (b) helps pull it inland?

Looks like NY could be in for serious drenching if it doesn't curve and speed up soon.
Zap
new blog!
I've just recently joined wu and need help with analysis.

Looking at the visible system in the central Gulf
(http://www.goes.noaa.gov/GIFS/GULFVS.JPG)

The SST is very warm (85F to possibly almost 90F?)
(http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/ofs/aofs_3d_images/aofs_sst_nowcast_hurr.png)

The windshear seems to be low
(http://www.wunderground.com/data/640x480/atlm_shear.gif)

Precipital water seems to be high in the area
(http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/GMEX/SSPW/20.jpg)

All of these seem to me to be conducive to TS formation.

However, looking at the sea-level pressure map, there seems to be an area of high pressure and what may be considered low "steering"? winds in the GOM right now?
(http://www.wunderground.com/data/640x480/huratl_slp.gif)

My questions are:
1) Of the probably one million variables in tropical weather system formation/intensification, are the above measurements/models reasonable to look at when evaluating the potential of a weather system?
2) Are there other reasons why this system is not forecast to significantly intensify other than the sea level pressure/1000mb winds?
3) I'm not sure how to read the 3-D SST graphic that Dr. Masters posted. It looks as if the entire GOM is a hot tub, however when I look at the nowcast of this same graphic but just of the GOM(see above) it seems to show significantly cooler SSTs than what would be indicated in the graphic in his post. Is there something I'm missing?

btw, I have been lurking on this site after the recomendation of a friend, and have found it to be extraordinarily educational and enlightening! Thanks!
Hello all. I can attest to the potential of fast moving hurricanes maintaining strength while moving over cool waters and into marginal upper level environs. I live in Halifax NS where Hurricane Juan came ashore just west of us in 2003 as a Cat2. Sustained windspeeds were 160kph (90kts) and a peak recorded gust was 234kph (125kts). SST's were in the vicinty of 20C and the hurricane had was caught in the jetstream and screamed through at about 75kph. Interestingly this forward (northward) speed enhanced the windfield on the eastern side of the storm and aided a storm surge of 1.5 to 2 metres into Halifax Harbour. It was a rough night to say the least... our mid-lat vegatation is not well designed for hurricanes LOL.
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I am personally issuing my own TROPICAL STORM WATCH for the North Fork of Long Island and a TROPICAL STORM WARNING for the South Fork of Long Island and Eastern Coastal Ct, Cape Cod and Martha's Vineyard.......
The NHC should be more proactive, Long Island is completely unprepared and there is very little notice at this point.
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Now that I have issued my own Watches and Warnings, I will watch intently to see if I have to go out to Long Island to get my deck furniture stashed and say a prayer.
the front pushing off the coast will turn Beryl to the NNE
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Wow, those last 2 frames have it stronger and it seems to have nudged to the West a little, increasing the odds of a Long Island/R.I/Cape Cod hit:
Link
I don't know how strong this will be in 24 hours, but I'd say the odds of landfall have gone up quite a bit in the past few hours.
Dr. Jeff- What do you think?