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# Beryl hits Nantucket

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:14 PM GMT on July 21, 2006

Tropical Storm Beryl moved rapidly over Nantucket Island, Massachusetts this morning, bringing gusty winds and heavy rain, but little damage. Seas reached 19 feet offshore Nantucket this morning, and large pounding waves of six to ten feet will cause minor beach erosion problems for the remainder of the day. The peak wind this morning measured at Nantucket Airport was 33 mph, gusting to 44 mph. The pressure bottomed out at 1001 mb at 3am. The Nantucket Shoals buoy reported peak 10-minute average winds of 41 mph with a gust to 56 mph. The heaviest rain stayed offshore, and only about an inch of rain fell on Nantucket. Beryl was a typical July tropical storm--a weak system good for testing our preparedness for when the real action starts in August.

Figure 1. Total rainfall from Beryl estimated from the Boston radar.

Beryl missed mainland Massachusetts, and is now on its way to a landfall in Nova Scotia. The storm is well on its way toward becoming a regular extratropical storm, and should have only a minor impact on Canada. Beryl is the first July tropical storm to hit New England since Tropical Storm Bertha of 1996.

Elsewhere in the tropics
There are no other disturbed areas of weather in the tropical Atlantic worthy of mention today. There are indications that the region between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands may become more favorable for tropical storm formation next week, though. There is less Saharan dust pushing off the coast of Africa, and both the GFS and Canadian models are suggesting a tropical storm could form by the middle of next week off the coast of Africa. However, there will still be a lot of wind shear present, and the chances of a significant storm developing and holding together are questionable. The basic weather pattern we've seen all of June and July shows no sign of changing, and significant hurricane activity appears likely to hold off until the usual time we're used to--early August.

I'll be back with an update Saturday.
Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

 thel, I have looked at vis, wv,and ir imagery of SOC from several sites and just do not get it.
 There are a couple of low surface readings from the Bahamas. I pick both (as willwatches!)
 I do see some SW winds on the west coast of florida, but pressures are like 1014mb to 1015mb. There's does appear to be a surface trough.HPC surface analysisAlso Keywest Radar looks interesting...
 yep jp :) Ineed to start using the preview button.
 wow DANIEL has a good looking eye
 thel put me down for SOC and WFLA as the best chances, but I am not willing to rule out the Bahamas area either as if any of this develops it should be fairly slow to come about.Not saying those areas will develop, only saying they have the best chances.
 is this some kind of frontal boundary or wave?????
 Ok guys here is a IR loop of the Gulf of mexico....
 thel, that is the line the SOC and WFLA blobs drew in the preverbial sand :)
 23, that map is very hard to really tell anything on because it is small and the loop is very short. Much better to give a link to the site or loops so peoplle get them full size. Just my take :)
 does that look familiar?????? god i wihed the cuban radar worked!
 Guys this is one of the radar loops i use at the University...
 http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-ir2.htmlIf the convection continues to build after sunset, there is something there.
 thelmores what is that photo of?
 Taz, that is SOC. View it from the GHCC site. Use 30 frames on visable and set to animation and then click on south of Cuba just to the E of the yucatan channel and watch it spin.
 there is little to no convection with it jp and taz.
 "thelmores what is that photo of?"it is just east of Santa Fe, Cuba......
 StormJunkie is a low of some kind and dos it have a ch to be come the next name storm
 "there is little to no convection with it jp and taz."so, UL feature??????
 i find it hard to believe all the activity in the straits, that NOTHING will develop!!!!!!
 Don't think so from those images earlier when the convection died off. Also not noticable on the WV loop. Which I have always found to show ULLs fairly well.
 Gulf and NW carribean look like they're beginning to cook. Hopefully nothing major will develop.
 whatever it is..... its "invisible" on the wv loop!!maybe we have a "dry" TD! LOL
 Here a pic of the area thelmores is talking about...Buy yea no convetion in that area.
 Anyone have history on the number of tropical cyclones that got started in the GOM?
 Iam lookin towards the Thunderstorm activty north of cuba.
 jp there is clearly rotation there. Us e the animation and 30 frame loop from GHCC. Speed it up just a little and you will see the rotation. It is there. I don't know what that is, but it is rotating .
 I just did an analysis on Daniel, its bad news :(
 Also check the IR.That thing is driving me nuts. The vis makes it look like convection is growing, but the IR is showing nothing yet.Find these links and more on the Quick Links page.
 turtle.... what exactly does that image mean???
 thel, how come no one is answering any questions about the SOC? Very odd.
 well..... gonna take the wifey to dinner....BBL....don't let anything happen while i'm gone! LOL
 BTW, the roatation south of cuba is non tropical. It is the remnants of a convective meso-scale vorticity. No chance to develop at all.
 "thel, how come no one is answering any questions about the SOC? Very odd."PROB CAUSE NOBODY KNOWS WHAT THE HADES IT IS!LOL
 Nice work turtle. Any intensity forecast for landfalls for Daniel?
 MAIN FEATURE IN THE GULF THIS AFTERNOON IS UPPER TROF JUST WEST OF SW FLORIDA IN THE SE GULF OF MEXICO. BUOYS/QUIKSCAT INDICATING SOME SURFACE REFLECTION WITH TROF AXIS AND CYCLONIC TURNING OF WINDS EVIDENT. HAVE ANALYZED TROF ACCESS FROM 27N83W TO 24N85W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITH THIS TROF IS LOCATED IN THE SW GULF BETWEEN 24/26N AND 84/81W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO EXTENDING EAST THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE FAR SW ATLANTIC/BAHAMAS...
 "It is the remnants of a convective meso-scale vorticity. No chance to develop at all."thanks turtle.... can you go a little more indepth for "us nubs"! :)
 Dr. Jeff Masters, (or anyone)What's up with sub-tropical jet stream now?Has it moved? Is it still going through the gulf?Thanks!
 I answered it for you guys, right?
 There does appear to be a surface trough in the area.
 A covective meso-scale vorticity forms under a burst of convection, almost like a supercell rotation. The one south of cuba is the remnants of one from maybe a day ago. Its kind of like the bones of the former convective blowup. It is providing some instability for rain and such. Notice how when the day time heat hit it, it formed an area of clouds and storms instantly. It is convective though and thus, not tropical. It still is an interesting aspect of weather though.
 Too close to the coast 456. Give it a day or two to pull away from Africa. If it is still togethere then, it may have a shot.23 use the NCEP fronts box on this loop and it will show you where the surfac trough is. It is not near the SOC (south of Cuba) feature.
 turtlehurricane's picture above is the cone of improbability for Hurricane Daniel, derived from the Infinite Improbability Modeling Program (IIMP).
 thelmores After looking at some things here... The area u are mentioning is a mid level vorticity center from the leftovers of a strong cluster of thunderstorms in that area this morning. The clouds you see are not thunderstorms they are altostratus/altocumulus clouds. Adrian
 that surface trough is sure ruining my day with rain.
 oops, this loopBut you likely knew that...SJ
 yeah hurricane23, i explained that
 AN EASTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS RELOCATED APPROXIMATELY 120 NM TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS POSITION BASED UPON LOW LEVEL TURNING ON SHORTWAVE IR IMAGES. THE WAVE IS CURRENTLY ALONG 29W/30W SOUTH OF 19N. A LOW LEVEL SWIRL IS LOCATED ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 15N. THIS POSITION IS ALSO IN A REASONABLE LOCATION BASED UPON A FORWARD MOTION OF 15 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE TROPICAL WAVE HAS FAIR STRUCTURE WITH MUCH OF THE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ...THEREFORE IT WILL BE DISCUSSED IN THAT SECTION.
 Thanks, StormW. Will have a look.
 The 18z GFS still wants to take the Gulf and Bahamas areas and covnerge them just off the FLA SE coast and still tries to form something. Then it moves it N and NNE just off the OBX, but it has it getting ripped apart.
 so how soon could we see 98L?
 I HAVE THE FEELING THAT THE WAVE THAT IS 15N 30W MAY HAVE THE CHANCE OF DEVLOMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAY BECUSE IT WILL BE HEADING TO WARMER WATER AND A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIROMENT
 TAZ, i feel 98L will come from that wave..I might be wrong but 2 morrow, that wave is still persisting, then we might see 98L
 It doesn't look like the Gulf is much of a hurricane birthplace (except in the Bay of Campeche, which produced west-moving storms) but over the past 10 years there have been a few tropical storms that formed over the central Gulf that moved either north or east. These were mostly in early August. Didn't find much that got started just south of Cuba either, but it's not out of the realm of possibility.
 cool now do we no where it is going and how storng it will be
 I noticed the vortex this morning on radar just north of the dry tortugus. Pressure has dropped aboout 2 mbs at Tampa and Ft Meyers in 24 hours but pressures are lowering due to a breakdown in the ridge due to a cold front and trough advancing into the SE US. A lot of convection massing around the vortex...We might need to watch this as some of the models notably NAM have indicated some kind of development from this feature over the last few days. adrian
 Evening SW GFS Model. Look at the yellow area of vorticity over Florida and in the GOM. Click the forward button to the right of the image.
 StormW--your link pic looks like a giant hibiscus! Would have to be heading for FL if it is.P.S. Will someone send me an email explaining how to post a link and name it. Am feeling techno-impaired. Thanks
 Thanks for the updates all. Looks like we may have something in the next few days here. Keep it up.Patrick
 The nam has whatever it is running across central Fla at this point. Although I am not giving track forecast with any of them much credit yet.
 Yes to pretty much all of that SW, but since several models show some thing with an 850mb vorticity moving from the Gulf and in an N and E fashion, I would say it has the best chance out of anything right now.
 I guess It's just a wave as NWS forecasted, going across S. Fla. Rain has stopped here in Ft. Myers, pressure has stayed basically the same all day , 1016-1018. so just typical tropical rainfall. I suppose.
 Again guys this is what i was talking about...NHC COMMENTS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED TODAY AT THE BASE OF THE NARROW TROUGH CENTERED NEAR 26N86W. BUOYS/QUIKSCAT INDICATES SOME SURFACE REFLECTION WITH CYCLONIC TURNING OF WINDS EVIDENT
 Think we should call links to blob images "blobolinks"?
 blobolink Is this the area you're talking about StormW?(P.S. Thanks StormJ)
 http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-avn.htmlLinkHey all,Is it just me, or are the bulk of the heavier showers here just the diurnal convectional heating blowups? I'm looking at one clump each over Cuba, S. Florida, and Andros Island (the biggest of the Bahamian chain). As a cross-check, note a similar formation over Hispaniola (Haiti/Dominican Republic).
 The NHC now seems Fairly interested in this area as they are now sayin its become better defined.
 You can see on the IR loop the ULL has gotten better defined threw the day today.
 Oops. Didn't work. Will try againblobolink
 Evening all ...is my imagination in the GOM still nothing? :-)There's some crap starting to roll through my area right now. Pressure topped at 1015 around noon - been on a steady decline since. Current is 1012. Winds were from WNW until about 30 minutes ago - shifted to SE
 23,I wish the public would not use 2005 as a guide cause last years activity was truly incredible and probably wont happen again for many many years to come.Just to support your point, the last year we had a similar # of named storms on record was 1933! 1934 was a very quiet year by comparison to its predecessor. However, as Bahamians and S. Floridians know, a quiet year doesn't mean there will be no devastation. Just look at 1992. I agree people generally should be more aware of that.
 Just posted a tornado warning for my area. Aren't you in Pinellas County, Stormy2Day? Just posted @ 8:46 for north county. Looks like the whole county's gonna get moderate to heavy rain. Am signing off to check the sky.
 Thank you BahaHurican .It only takes one and 1992 is a prime example of that.
 yep, in pinellas - south - pinellas point. We have one heck of a light show, 34mph gust but no rain ...yet.
 Yea cyclonebuster its gonna be interesting to see what developes over the weekend.
 Posted By: jphurricane2006 at 6:06 PM PDT on July 21, 2006. do you guys think Daniel could make it to Cat5 status?; still looking very impressiveyes i think it has a ch
 This is what i call a monster!!!!!!
 Daniel only has 11mph's to go to reach cat 5, but is on the edge of very unfavorable conditions..he better do it very fast
 where did you find that maps link?
 Statement as of 9:01 PM EDT on July 21, 2006... Funnel clouds are possible in Pinellas County...At 901 PM EDT... a Skywarn spotter reported a funnel cloud innortheast Pinellas County. Doppler radar showed the storm movingwest at 5 mph.At 901 PM EDT... law enforcement officials reported a funnel cloud inthe Clearwater area. Doppler radar showed the storm moving west at 5mph.At 901 PM EDT... law enforcement officials reported a funnel cloudnear the Howard Franklin bridge. Doppler radar showed the stormmoving west at 5 mph.At 901 PM EDT National Weather Service Doppler radar indicatedthunderstorms... capable of producing a funnel clouds... over PinellasCounty... moving west at 5 mph.Funnel clouds may affect...Safety Harbor.Highpoint.Palm Harbor.Clearwater.Baskin.Belleair.Funnel clouds can become brief... small... but dangerous tornadoes.Move indoors immediately... and stay away from windows.Though a tornado has not been reported... this storm has the potentialto produce more funnel clouds... and a tornado. Stay tuned forpossible warnings from the National Weather Service.&&Lat... Lon 2777 8264 2797 8261 2814 8265 2805 8288 2772 8287
 Check this out!!!!!All i can say is wow...00:00z Models=150 mph,933 mbs
 huh? it now has 150mph or 155mph??????????
 Yea cyclonebuster its gonna be interesting to see what developes over the weekend.Please explain your stance with data.
 no not yet but i expecting it has a good chance of reaching cat 5 status real soon.
 turtlehurricane If u read the NHC comments your are off on your thoughts....AN UPPER LEVEL LOW HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED TODAY AT THE BASE OF THE NARROW TROUGH CENTERED NEAR 26N86W. BUOYS/QUIKSCAT INDICATES SOME SURFACE REFLECTION WITH CYCLONIC TURNING OF WINDS EVIDENT
 hurricane23...Was that just a 150mph?...no wait....I was wrong again! What is going on guys?
 That just means theres slight reflection at the surface. Doesnt mean its going to develop. The reflection is extremely weak and typical of any upper level low. This is really insignificant. Anything else that supports your stance?
 I'm at 27 and 80...wow!
 Its 145 mph right now....with gusts to 170.
 hurricane23...How could I miss that? I had no F....ng idea.
 Lets hope, we have no Daniel's this year
 when the next update on the D storm
 23...Are you getting any precip?
 You got some serious problems....What i said was lets see what developes meaning iam going to watch that area.I respect your opinion so pleaes respect my opinion.I think you said enough last night.
 Is anyone in SFL receiving rain?
 hurricane23 .....Sorry I just tuned in. Hope you're not yacking at me. I was not here last night.
 I already told you, I work with frank and he wouldnt believe that. Hes actually already told me about people who annoy him with ideas like this. They are unfeasible.
 nevere mine about that update her the new update on the storm and look like 23 may be right on this 130kts what would that be in mph? and a 933mb that is for hurricane Daniel oh is 130kts need for a cat 5 or is that 135kts?
624. Alec
 HERES SOME POSTS FROM EARLIER THIS YR:Posted By: louastu at 5:59 PM GMT on April 25, 2006. cyclonebuster,Please stop talking about tunnels. Even IF we believed that you had enough evidence to prove that they would work, and wanted to have them built, not one of us could get them built.Posted By: WunderYakuza (Admin) at 6:37 PM GMT on April 25, 2006. Do me a favor and cut the bickering.louastu has a good point. The tunnels topic is probably spent, and any further discussion of it is going to be spammed.cyclonebuster, if you want to talk more about the tunnels, the best place will be your own blog. Thanks.
 randrewl no precip as off right now... we will probalby get some later tonight iam sure.
 Sorry all...you're yacking about the Pacific. Not my area.
 Ok, thanks hurricane23 for not supportng your view. Blurting out stuff with no proof is fun, isnt it?
 hurricane23130kts what would that be in mph? and a 933mb that is for hurricane Daniel oh is 130kts need for a cat 5 or is that 135kts?her the new update woow its makeing a run for it lol
 EATL i sure hot tonight.....and the gulf.....
 Turtle, just believe! Its ok..LOL Turtle, remember you didnt like the area off the Carolinas either last weekend! But, we still love ya:)
 oh good god ...should have looked at the posts before jumping into this.::::waving flag in the air::::::Getting some serious stuff here in Tampa Bay ...funnel clouds and water spouts dropping from the sky like rain. But, nevermind us ....
 All i said was i was watching the area...Like the rest of the tropics.U need to stop seriously with your comments.Grow up.
 Stormy2day...Hey...tell me about local weather. I can't give two.....about the Pacific.
 I have been promised rain here all week and nothing but a few drops.
 Hey Rand - pretty intense here. Water spouts at night are unnerving - can't see them coming. The rain is slowing now - hoping the worst is past us.
 All i said was i was watching the area...Like the rest of the tropics.U need to stop seriously with your comments.Grow up.I thought you are in collge, you should be able to explain yourself, or at east write the word you out.
 Stormy2day...In Melbourne...yeah...you get all the stuff I need. Send it down here. Sorry if you had bad stuff...I just need some more precip. We're still way behind.
 Sorry Stormy...you're in the Tampa area.
 cyclonebuster, answer this for me....were hurricanes here before Man....?and why do we want to destroy them when they are natural occuring and part of earth.....?Man knew that hurricanes made landfall, and yet they still built on the coast..and now we paying for coastal development...we want to destroy them...does make sense.....As in the case with Galvenston and New Orleans....Hurricane Katrina drowned new orleans and inspite of it they rebuild the city...for a next Katrina - like storm to hit....
 LOL Rand - wish we could keep the rain and send the funnels out to sea!
 turtlehurricane ....Go! LOL
 Stormy2day...Have you ever been caught up in a funnel?
 LOL
 Randrewl most our area has a real good chance this weekened of seeing some rain in my opinion.
 yes, on the pinellas (west) side of Tampa Bay ...stuff gets to cook up real good over the bay before getting to me. I'm the last stop before Gulf waters so it is real common for spouts to kick up in the heels of stuff passing through.That wave was quick - no more than 30 minutes start to end. Not the good long soaking rain that we really need - most of this will be lost down the storm drains.
 Hi folks, good evening to all, from dusty and dry northeast florida. Just a quick question-- does anyone see any sort of goings-on around the tip of the keys? Thought I saw quite a bit of convection there earlier...just wanted ya'lls opinions...thanks folks...
 Some of the discussion on Daniel:ALL OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT DANIEL SHOULD SOONBEGIN TO WEAKEN. SINCE THE HURRICANE IS NOW LITTLE STRONGER THANPREVIOUS FORECAST...THE INTENSITY FORECAST AS BEEN ADJUSTEDACCORDINGLY. DANIEL'S WEAKENING SHOULD BE GRADUAL DURING THE NEXT24-36 HOURS AS SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN LIGHT AND SSTS ONLY COOLSLIGHTLY. LATER IN THE FORECAST...DANIEL IS EXPECTED TO ENCOUNTERMUCH COOLER WATERS WHICH SHOULD ACCELERATE THE WEAKENING.DANIEL CONTINUES TO MOVE GENERALLY WESTWARD AND THE INITIAL MOTIONIS ESTIMATED AT 280/10. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO REMAINON A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST HEADING FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS. BEYONDTHREE DAYS...DANIEL IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWEST AS A DIGGINGTROUGH PRODUCES A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE OFFICIALFORECAST WAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND IS ALITTLE SLOWER THAN THE MODEL CONSENSUS BY THE END OF THE FORECASTPERIOD.This was at 5 p.m. Do u think they have revised the forecast at 8 p. m. ? lolBut seriously, storms that strengthen and become better defined at times when forecasters are suggesting they should be weakening should be reviewed closely. Obviously there is something in the environment of that storm that forecasters are not taking into account.
 hurricane23...You probably will. But there is this forcefield right off the inlet here that prevents all that from happening. Even with the sea breeze frontal boundary in the afternoon. Except in the event of a hurricane ...then the field lowers!
 But seriously, storms that strengthen and become better defined at times when forecasters are suggesting they should be weakening should be reviewed closely. Obviously there is something in the environment of that storm that forecasters are not taking into account.Intenisty is the worst area of forecasting accuracy wise now for many reasons. We do not understnads hurricanes to a far extent at all.
 and it has 130kts winds and a 933mb
 yes Rand - I was caught up in a funnel about 4 years ago but the funny thing is it wasn't here. I was visiting my sister in Michigan ...go figure.I grew up in Ohio and had close encounters as a kid.Been here 20+ years and have seen funnels and water spouts but down here - funnels don't stay on the ground long - very different.
 All unexplainable phenomena regarding hurricanes is and could be explained if the Western universities taught an uncorrupted form of physics.
 Turtle is correct. Intensity is the hardest to forecast. Some many different variables. Just when I think a storm is gonna explode because of low shear and high SST's, alittle bit of dry air gets in the circulation and bang, it doesnt strengthen. Or visa versa. So much happens on the small scale, its almost impossible to be that accurate. We do our best and I think the NHC does a pretty good job.
 Hey cyclone buster, could i see your mathematic equation for tunnels?
 Stormy2day...I got caught in one while offsore fishing. A blinding thunderstorm hit us in a tournament and we just kept fishing until a huge wad of seaweed hit me in the face. I decided it was time to consider we had been hit!
 Rand, have you taken Physics at a University before?
 Turtle.....It must be a slow night with you arguing about the tunnel thing!
 weatherguy03....Yes.
 How many years ago?
 Turtle is correct. Intensity is the hardest to forecast. Some many different variables. Just when I think a storm is gonna explode because of low shear and high SST's, alittle bit of dry air gets in the circulation and bang, it doesnt strengthen. Or visa versa. So much happens on the small scale, its almost impossible to be that accurate. We do our best and I think the NHC does a pretty good job.I agree, for example, mesovortices. I am doing a study on them right now. Ends up these small little swirls in the eye may have a huge impact on hurricanes as a whole. I might put it up in the HRD blog a few months from now.
 oooh well weakening them is a diffrent story..ok cyclonebuster..but supoose in attemt to weaken them you cause a shift in the storm direction and they continue to strenghten, what will happen?will we do the Katrina "the blame game"?
 weatherguy03...Would have been in the early 70's
 Yes, Turtle, I would love to see what you have on those. Been wanting to see the corelation.
 Intensity is the hardest to forecast. Some many different variables. Just when I think a storm is gonna explode because of low shear and high SST's, alittle bit of dry air gets in the circulation and bang, it doesnt strengthen. Or visa versa. So much happens on the small scale, its almost impossible to be that accurate. I agree with this. But WHY is it so hard? Why are we missing what we are missing? The next level of forecasting IMO has to mean finetuning what we have and inventing new methods of forecasting to remedy these inadequacies.
 Baha, its constantly evolving and getting better. New equations are put into our forecast models every year. Believe me, we have come a long way in the last 10 to 20 years.
671. Alec
 Hey cyclone, I have yet to see:1)a formula(you merely reference them)2)documented findings(this does not include basing this off articles, but your found conclusions of the matter)I want an explanation(but please make a blog about your tunnel ideas, Aaron already told you to stop your tunnel talk on here)
 Someone talked about the level of teaching (was it physics mentioned?). I think this is a key element. Not to teach just what has happened in physics / weather / computer technologies, but to teach how to question effectively and explore new approaches.
 If you ever saw what actually goes into these models you would be amazed. I used to have to solve these dang things!..LOL It still gives me nightmares!!
 It gives Alec nightmares everyday!:)
675. Alec
 OH bob.....dont make me cry...LOL
 hey,im new here..is there anything developing or brewing...or at least mentioning?
 My sister once asked me why the US does not do something to stop the tropical waves from moving off the African coast. I grinned and looked at her and said...."The Africans might not appreciate us stopping them". Tunnels ...same deal...some people or countrys might not agree with that.Fugetabboutit.
 I went to the annual SHIPS conference at the NHC a few weeks ago. Its ubeleivable how much is in them, how much its evolving, and how much is missing. This year they added the storms forward motion, 500 mb heights(something like that), and lots of other things. I suggested adding an eyewall replacement cycle through use of a microwave imagery index and thier workign on it.
 BahaHurican....Absolutely.
 turtle,mesovortices are interesting..what is the relationship between them and the ERC?...just curious...
 Great idea Turtle! Yes, every year they get better. At least we hope they do..LOL
683. Alec
 guess what cyclone? I dont know Pascal and Bernouili's theories! Now write them out and explain!
 turtlehurricane....Minor advances. Did you see anything that could be considered groundbreaking material?
 jus991...Happy to have you here. Doesn't seem to be too much happening unless you are interested in Pacific storms.
686. Alec
 turtle, I sense the turtles are growling again....LOL
 Posted By: aquak9 at 9:50 PM EDT on July 21, 2006.Hi folks, good evening to all, from dusty and dry northeast florida. Just a quick question-- does anyone see any sort of goings-on around the tip of the keys? Thought I saw quite a bit of convection there earlier...just wanted ya'lls opinions...thanks folks...hhmmm...must be an echo...
 tHE PROBLEM WITH THE ROTATION just south of Cuba is the mountain range it has to cross to get top the other side.
 NOAA WEATHER FORECAST OFFICES AND OPERATIONS IN THE LINE OF FIREGrass fires in Nebraska and South Dakota had direct impact on NOAA National Weather Service operations. The fire stories damage & picks. South of Fl is looking interesting tonight. It would have to consolidate some swirls, break free from that trough from Beryl, ULL (off NC) & on down. Also that ULL is forcing a trough down to sweep through on Sunday. That ULL would need to race off so the trough didn't come so low & catch it. So I think the faster the ULL goes & to the east would help, the more chance the blob has.
 000ABNT20 KNHC 212048TWOAT TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL530 PM EDT FRI JUL 21 2006FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY.$$FORECASTER FRANKLINThat is it!  Well I'll lay out what I know about them right now. Mesovortices are caused by Kelvin-Helmhotz instability between the eye and eyewall. They are kicked off more often when the storm is assymetrical or very powerful. Mesovortices then usually take energy from the storm. However, they can feed off the energy in the low levels of the eye and actually provide a burst of energy for the storm. It usually is nuetral though but, not always. Basically, they can do anything between weakening the storm and strengthening it. The anatomy of them is interesting as well, they are below 10-12 km, and actually have a strong updraft indicated by radar. This leads to subsidence in the eye around them. Like a mini hurricane. They interact with each other as welll in the eye through merging and such. This is caused to the eye rotating faster than the vortices orbit. I ahve yet to research the correlation between them and the eyewall replacement cycle.  i live here in florida...after getting affected by jeanne,frances,katrina, and definately wilma..this year seems kinda slow,but like everybody says "its above average"..i agree but i think it's kinda weird that we had this monsterous season last year and this year were looking at almost nothing, only having 2 storm and both of them being very weak ...i think were gonna go downhill soon...what do you guys think?  Aquak.....There isn't anything happening right now. People see swirls in their sleep I guess.  jus991...I think I am happy if nothing else happens for another 20 Years!  Very interesting Turtle. I would think that they would provide energy to the storm. I really need to look into that alittle more closely. You gave me some stuff to think about. Thanks. 698. Alec  Posted By: cyclonebuster at 2:13 AM GMT on July 22, 2006. Pascal's theory is about an enclosed system.It is just a statement.Bernoulli's theory is different.Teach us like you would teach a class buster....  No problem weatherguy.  thanks randrewl,yeah there is daniel which is pretty interesting...but what about that td 6 that one looks like it could affect land...according to the projected path,could be something for mexico to watch?  jus, it's WAY too early to make that call. All the hurricanes you mentioned happened after today's date:) Excuse the typos. My 3-year-old is geeting in on the satellite loops! :)...  cyclonebuster...Well that is all real sweet. But you have denied the electrical and electromagnetic influence on all that. 703. Alec  that's a start.......now expound on how this affects your tunnel idea IN YOUR OWN BLOG please.....  Wow, Physics at 10:30PM on a Saturday night. I think its time to go!..LOL Have a good night all!  Alec...Amen...In his own blog.  See ya 03  It is a Friday night. LOL  thanks raindrool :)au jus...I just don't think we can put last year into the equation...it was simply an outlier, can't really add any of last year's statistics to the grand equation. Shifts in the mean will always occur anytime you're trying to deal with a naturally changing environment...but let's just hope that last year was simply outside of the equation.  Mosrly just Wikepedia defs. Get out!  Oh yeah!..Ha Ha!! Friday night..I am tired. Been a long day!  aquak9...raindrool! That's funny. Just bring me some rain....I have the rest of all the equations here tonight.  sorry about that post..feel free to spam me...had my head buried in QC and SD's and coefficients of variation and turning curved lines into straight lines and geeeez they oughtta pay me for all the work my poor brain brings home! I need duct tape!  i would like to say something that needs to be said DON'T MESS WITH NATURE or she'll mess with us! 716. Alec  Equation: E=mc^2bob seems to be deprived of some of this!LOL 718. Alec  Better go build a tunnel to China.........brb....LOL  The NHC doesnt mention anything at 10:30pm, so,any of the waves near Africa still have any change of development????  Hurricane Daniel Advisory Expected soon.  aquak9...Duct tape...very good solution!  nope, no development any where...it's as dead as stemcell research....  yeah littlefish, i agree but ,what i was trying to point out was more based on how we had this very long record breaking last year and all of a sudden we have this year and its slow...it seems kind of awkward in my point of view,though i do think the gulf coast may get less action this year and the east coast more...but for all i know there could be more in the gulf...how could people know that i mean, tropical cyclones a lot of the times forms off of disturbances or tropical waves...you never know where they may turn or move exactly, i think pre-forcasters are getting all the gulf coast happy that they get a free-be while the east coast has all the action...i think that pretend another katrina comes along a lot of people wont be prepared because most of the crowd is beileving that nothing is going to hit them and everything as probaly going be on the east coastthats probaly going to be leading to trouble  aquak9....Now that is political and this is a weather blog. How can I report this? LOL  well just think about what could happen to weather patterns if you where to change how the planet dispurses heat and energy  Have you guys seen the interactive tool?Its really something else...you can zoom you can choose if you want sst ,IR sat and much more.Its great.  hurricane23...So bring it!  yeah,hurricane 23, that interactive tool is great!  bring what LOL.....  so you want to make it worse!  Stemcell research is far from dead. Just not getting funds from the Feds.  Yeah those animals deep in the ocean are escaping our global warming effects. Lets kill them to with the tunnels. Then everything gets its fair share.  turtlehurricane...that's funny!  That's funny also...stem cell research is dead!  i am just saying i don't want to wake up one morning in PR with 10 ft snow drifts beacuse some guy parked a massive tunnel in the pacific  lol  We all need to be thankful for Saharan dust. It is a cooling factor on this out of control Al Gore warming thing!  mrpuertorico...LOL!!  you know i was thinking about seeing that movie with my nephiew taking a second thought now  mrpuertorico...that's the funniest post all night!Who wants to second that?  See the movie. But keep your brains after. 748. SLU  Hurricane Daniel is the most powerful hurricane to form in the EPAC sine Hurricane Javier (150mph) in 2004 .. let's hope that we don't see such in the Atlantic this year inspite of the 'boring' July so far.  I went to the annual SHIPS conference at the NHC a few weeks ago. Its ubeleivable how much is in them, how much its evolving, and how much is missing. This year they added the storms forward motion, 500 mb heights(something like that), and lots of other things. I suggested adding an eyewall replacement cycle through use of a microwave imagery index and thier workign on it.This sounds pretty interesting. These steps may be small, but sometimes it's the baby steps that get us to that higher level. So when someone goes back to look at say, hurricane Daniel, they'll be looking at one more variable that could potentially lead to increased accuracy, which in turn can lead to greater safety of the general public. Case in point is Charley, with that "unexpected" jump in wind speed. I have to admire professionals in meteorology and climatology who persistently refine their product in the face of both public acclaim and disapprobation . . .  23.......We need a break! Give me some pretty charts of anything man!  does anyone know and could tell me how to link pictures or make them bigger so you just see the picture alone not the site?  sorrry bout that, drool..go ahead and spam me..won't be the first time, won't be the last...no political inflections intended, sorry...  That's funny also...stem cell research is dead!Your wrong! Its a multi billion dollar industry. The veto was a setback not a killer.  acctualy pr is rather active with minor tremos here is link Link  "Current rise in sea levels mean greater pressures at depth. This will cause more Earthquakes,landslides and tsunamis."Assuming every chunk of ice on the planet melted, we would have a sea level rise of what, 20 meters? Do you have any idea how deep the ocean is? The pressure difference would be about as much as the temperature difference from your tunnels *rolls eyes*  HURRICANE DANIEL 150 MPH....HURRICANE DANIEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052006 0300 UTC SAT JUL 22 2006 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 128.5W AT 22/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 933 MB EYE DIAMETER 25 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 130 KT WITH GUSTS TO 160 KT. 64 KT....... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT....... 80NE 70SE 70SW 80NW. 34 KT.......120NE 100SE 100SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..400NE 350SE 250SW 350NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 128.5W AT 22/0300Z AT 22/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 128.0W FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 13.9N 130.0W MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 70SW 80NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 100SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 14.3N 131.8W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 70SW 80NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 100SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 14.8N 133.5W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 25SE 25SW 35NW. 50 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 90SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 15.2N 134.7W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 90SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 15.9N 136.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 75SE 75SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z 17.5N 138.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z 19.5N 140.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.6N 128.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0900Z$$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 looks like that wave of africa has some convection...also it is moving into warmer waters
 aquak9...It was just a joke. Like in the Godfather about business and personal stuff. Oh, you had to be there. Anyway, Who is getting rain?
 Randrewl LOL!no charts for now....Next storm.Its probably going to be quiet for the next few days.
 V-trance...I don't want to turn this into a political blog, or start any fussin' and fighting...my views on stemcell research are strong...anyways...I ain't gettin' none!!! rain, that is...
 Ever considered the fact that this Earth has been flopping around for millions of years without our human help?
 looks like the africa dust is not really affecting the wave off africa
 Evening alllol....very good reading guys.turtle...very interesting:)So anyone got any thoughts on the area around S Fla?
 that wave has a chance if it keeps its convection and doesnt let the africa dust affect it...it seems to be moving in to a little more favoring conditions
 hurricane23...Give us a rerun!
 vortextrance...It was a humorous statement! This is not a political board.
 well it looks like well be monitoring radiation clowds at the rate the things are going... oh look on cnn world war III has started no joke thats the head line !
 StormJunkie...Where exactly is south Florida again? Hey!
 DROOL!!!shame!!hi, SJ...
 mrpuertorico...I appreciate your sense of humor. Please don't leave or all we will have is tunnel stuff!
 A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 48W S OF 18N MOVING WEST NEAR 15 KT. LOW LEVEL CURVATURE IS RATHER WEAK YET DEFINED ON VIS SATELLITE PICTURES. THIS WAVE CONTINUES TO LACK ANY DEEP CONVECTION OR ORGANIZED SHOWERS AND APPEARS TO BE THE LEADING EDGE OF A LARGE DENSE AREA OF SAHARAN DUST BASED UPON UW-CIMMS SAHARAN AIR LAYER ANALYSIS AND THE HAZY LOOK ON THE LAST FEW VIS IMAGES THIS EVENING.the wave has a chance if holds together and makes it through the african dust
 mpr, you really saw that headline?got a better way to describe it Rand? :)
 Evening a9
 SJ....Yeah, I can describe it all as a freaking Flock of Seagulls hovering over the Southerjn Florida Peninsula. Nothing there cept that that I can see.
 does anybody have an idea about chris???LOL...or atleast td 3?
 Randrwel....Iam tired so i'll be back on tommorow goodnight to everyone.
 hurricane23...See ya bro.
 well shear is down in the antilles and PR
 nite
 mrpuertorico...Are you receiving any rain and or experiencing any thunder storms? If there is any lightning I would appreciate the report.
 Night all
 yes today we had afterboob thunderstorms come across the northeastern coast aka san juan and the metro area and the junque
 StormJunkie...CMC and GFS still show this weather in south FL rolling off the east coast. Doesn't mean much...nothing here.
 lol afterboob ... i am tired
 is rainy in here the dominican republic
 sarepa...I appreciate your post. How are the intensities of your storms?
 Wow mpr, that sounds like much more fun then my afternoon :)
 Cyclone...PR has a whole bunch of faults around it. There is a dormant *volcano* on PR. These are not abnormal events.
 light
 yeah right i bet you don't here many forcasts like that..do ya
 sarepa...Thanks. I hope you can keep all of us updated regarding your weather conditions. OK?
 ok... im dominican
 does anybody think that wave off africa will develop?
 Look at the insane 12Z CMC - LOOK OUT NYHow is eveyone this evening?
 sarepa....Yes, I understand. It is important to have any information from you during a storm event. We can help you prepare and you can also help us in the US prepare as well. Are you willing to be theere for us? We will do all we can to help you as well.
 oye pero que vaina ah!
 Pulse...arcturus, MichaelStL and flakeman are getting slammed, and tomorrow looks no better...I know it's not TROPICAL weather...but it's ugly, nonetheless...
 yes..si
 well good nite i am going to dream about my afterboobs
 sarepa.......you keep posting here and we will help you all we can. Thank you. Muchas.
 I don't think so jus991. I think the dust will just be too much still. Middle to end of next week is my guess.
 So B is dead, oh well! What now?
 ok no ay ningun problema
 aquak9...Michael needs a taste!
 I was wondering if Micheal checked in after the other day. Yeah they are getting hit hard.
 sarepa...we have spanish-speaking bloggers on here as well, anything important is translated..our best bi-lingual blogger is LoveTheTropics..even if you dont post, you'll be kept up-to-date just by reading the blogs...
 Bernoulli's Principle"Bernoulli's principle states that in fluid flow, an increase in velocity occurs simultaneously with decrease in pressure. This principle is a simplification of Bernoulli's equation which states that the sum of all forms of energy in a fluid flowing along an enclosed path (a streamline) is the same at any two points in that path. It is named after the Dutch/Swiss mathematician/scientist Daniel Bernoulli, though it was previously understood by Leonhard Euler and others. In a fluid flow with no viscosity, and therefore one in which a pressure difference is the only accelerating force, it is equivalent to Newton's laws of motion. It is important to note that the only cause of the change in fluid velocity is the difference in pressures either side of it.""Bernoulli's principle thus says that a rise (fall) in pressure in a flowing fluid must always be accompanied by a decrease (increase) in the speed, and conversely, if an increase (decrease) in , the speed of the fluid results in a decrease (increase) in the pressure.""Bernouilli's principle also tells us why windows tend to explode, rather than implode in hurricanes: the very high speed of the air just outside the window causes the pressure just outside to be much less than the pressure inside, where the air is still. The difference in force pushes the windows outward""Another example of Bernoulli's principle at work is in the lift of aircraft wings and the motion of curve balls'' in baseball. In both cases the design is such as to create a speed differential of the flowing air past the object on the top and the bottom - for aircraft wings this comes from the movement of the flaps, and for the baseball it is the presence of ridges. Such a speed differential leads to a pressure difference between the top and bottom of the object, resulting in a net force being exerted, either upwards or downwards."Pascal's law"Pascal's law or Pascal's principle states that the fluid pressure at all points in a connected body of an incompressible fluid at rest, which are at the same absolute height, is the same, even if additional pressure is applied on the fluid at some place.On the other hand, the difference of pressure between two differents heights h1 and h2 is given by : P_2 - P_1=- \rho g (h_2-h_1)\,where ρ (rho) is the density of the fluid, g the acceleration due to gravity, and h1, h2 are elevations. (The intuitive interpretation of this formula is that the pressure at the base of a column of fluid is greater due to the weight of the column.)Note that the variation with height does not depend on any additional pressures, therefore Pascal's law can be formulated by saying that any change in pressure applied at any given point of the fluid is transmitted undiminished throughout the fluid.Applications * Pascal's principle underlies the Hydraulic press. * Artesian wells, water towers, dams * 'Pascal's barrel experiment': a long and narrow vertical pipe is connected to the content of a large barrel. If you put water into the pipe, even in small quantity, the height of the fluid within the pipe will sharply increase, and can induce the break of the barrel. * The pressure under water increases with depth, a fact well known to scuba divers. At a depth of 10 m under water, pressure is twice the atmospheric pressure at sea level, and increases by 100 kPa for every extra 10 m of depth. * On the other hand, atmospheric pressure diminishes with height, a fact first verified on the Puy-de-Dôme and the Saint-Jacques Tower in Paris, on the instigation of Blaise Pascal himself. As the atmosphere gets lighter with height, the atmospheric pressure varies exponentially with height. This is expressed functionally through the barometric formula."if you don't understand physics fine..... don't expect me to be your "physics" instructor!bottom line, all of "buster's" theory is sound, documented, and in use in every day life! So please don't be so nieve as to think that "buster's" idea would not work..... because simply put..... it would! Not theory, but FACT!now that we have all the physics, and my short commentary, ..... great minds in the past have been "ridiculed" and "chastised" as being "idiots".....having said all that, in closing.... i think the idea of "tunnels" is rediculous!!!!we have a better chance of developing a space elevator! LOLif i get scorned for backing "buster's" science, so be it..... "buster" has good intentions, i just wonder sometimes ih he lives in the "real world"! (i.e. who would pay for what would probably be the most expensive engineering project in history..... i'll take the space elevator and deal with the canes! ;)p.s. - wanna slap who ever "screwed" the margins! LOL
 pulse...no we haven't heard from MStL. Yes, he goes on and on about his weather...but geez, the last little blurb of news from his area was that they were calling in the Nat'l Guard...and the pics on arcturus blog are definitely chilling...
 thanks, progressive
 Yes, I did hear about that. My friends mother lives in North Suburbs of St. Louis, she said it was bad.
 National Guard will solve everything I'm sure. Sorry about Michael...he wants to re-run my experience of the three hurricanes I had to live through the past two seasons in his little safe haven of St. Louis and tell me it was not as bad as it really was. Good for him. Experience some bad weather for once.What goes around....
 thelmores...What an extremely informative post. Thank you.
 drool, I agree with everything you say...but with age comes compassion...StL is young, and probably going thru something he's never been thru before. And it's not just him, it's his family, loved ones and friends, and it can be frightening. So I am sure when he comes back, he'll have an entirely new perspective on Mother Nature. Still, my prayers and thoughts are with everyone in that area f the country.
 MrPuertoRico said it best with regards to tunnels or anything else like that - whether we think they might work or not - "what could happen to weather patterns if you were to change how the planet dispurses heat and energy." Don't mess with mother nature or there could be huge repercussions which would likely be chaotic and unpleasant to say the least.
 aquak9...I absolutely agree with all that. I am not a cold and uncompassionate person. I just feel that if you dish it out you should sometimes be required to eat your own grub!
 StellarCyclone...Sad part is "We" are already messing with the great Mother. Now we are seeing what can happen. I'm not talking this global warming nonsense here. It goes deeper than that.
 I'm sure that anything Michael went through will work out well for him as a man! I am concerned as well.
 Hurricanes are not a party people. I type fairly well today only because I have learned to position my right hand in the proper place to hit all the keys I want after being injured in hurricane David in 79. I can control 3 out of 5 fingers on my right hand because I was trying to protect my business which was lost in that one. I eventually had back surgery in 2000 for injuries sustained in that one. Now only my right hand and my left leg and three toes are affected. I only mention this now because no matter how bad something can be....I know how much worse it can be. I still live and I have three beautiful children that have never been told about this.
 I never communicated w/him before, drool, but still I kept up with his happennings...funny in an odd way..he was always here and now he's gone so I worry. We had so many MIA after katrina, Damon had an entire blog devoted to those who were MIA. So folks, please keep'm in your prayers!g'night everyone...thanks for the blog chat ya'll....
 "helmores...What an extremely informative post. Thank you."you are very welcome friend! :)well, i dont think we have a blob..... we just have a wad! LOL
 thelmores...Wad will work! LOL!
 Looks like a lot of communist Castro smoke involved thare.
 there
 nite Rand.... wife's giving me "that look"! LOL
 Global warming is solved! Right here!Link
 All theories including weather related are just unproven assumptions.In plain english.....theories are worthless.
 LinkSo how bad is it in NYC? How could I personally care?
 LiveScience Staff WriterLiveScience.com Fri Jul 21, 3:00 PM ET The sinking of Louisiana's Gulf coast could be due to the shallowest delta sediments pushing down the underneath layers, a new study suggests. Louisiana's coastal erosion causes the loss of land at a catastrophic rate of 25 to 35 square miles per year, equivalent to one football field every 15 minutes. [Map] Many scientists believe that the subsidence, as the sinking is called, takes place because as sediment accumulates and the Mississippi Delta thickens, the crust of the Earth as a whole gets pressed downward. The withdrawal of oil, gas, and groundwater are also blamed for the submerging delta. (Similar subsidence has been noted in Southern California and in many other states due to extensive pumping of groundwater, petroleum products and other reasons.) While erosion is a big problem, the layer 30 to 50 feet beneath much of the Mississippi Delta has been highly stable for the past 8,000 years with negligible subsidence rates. So scientists wondered whether a sinking of the Earth's whole crust was really to blame for the subsidenceUnfortunately when you completely destroy the barrier islands and the original flood plain surrounding the Mississippi River by digging man made channels this is what will happen. It is not because of subsidence type sinking. How ridiculous!
 A good summary of yesterday' weather features in the vicinity of South Florida: FLORIDA KEYS AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 1030 PM EDT FRI JUL 21 2006 ANALYSIS:[...]THE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION AND DISTURBED NATURE OF THE WEATHER OVER THE KEYS, NW BAHAMAS, SE GULF OF MEXICO IS HARD TO EXPLAIN...BUT A WEAK LOW CENTER AT 500 MB IS SUGGESTED IN WIND FIELDS JUST NORTH OF THE NW BAHAMAS WITH AN ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING SW TO THE GULF. AT THE SURFACE A WEAK TROUGH HAS MOVED WEST OF THE AREA AND INTO THE SE GULF...BUT ANOTHER WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MAY ALSO BE ANALYZED OVER THE STRAITS OFF THE UPPER KEYS AND SE PENINSULA...WITH A GENERALIZED REGION OF SURFACE CONVERGENCE SOUTH OF THAT FEATURE OVER THE KEYS.[...]
 guygee....Thanks for that info. Sounds kind of confusing but I'm used to that and understand. I live here.
 A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 24N87W TO THE COAST OF FLORIDA NEAR FORT MYERS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF THE SURFACE TROUGH E OF 87W ACROSS S FLORIDA AND THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. WEAK RIDGE FROM THE W ATLC EXTENDS ACROSS FLORIDA AND ALONG THE N GULF COAST TO TEXAS WITH A 1015 MB HIGH ALONG THE COAST OF LOUISIANA NEAR 30N92W. A WEAK UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE CAYMAN ISLANDS ACROSS CUBA INTO THE W ATLC JUST E OF FLORIDA NEAR 23N80W ALONG 27N71W TO AN UPPER HIGH NEAR 33N63W. AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED N OF THE REGION NEAR 35N71W WITH AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING SW TO NE FLORIDA NEAR JACKSONVILLE.
 Just waking up here in Fort Myers, got a pretty good rain going on right now.
 AST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL341 AM EDT SAT JUL 22 2006.DISCUSSION...WRN ATLC HIGH PRES RIDGE IS RETREATING SOME IN ADVANCE OF ADEVELOPING DEEP LAYER TROUGH OVER THE MS/OH VLYS. LOOKING ALOFT...AWEAK MID/UPPER VORT AXIS CONTINUES FROM THE GOMEX ACROSS FL AND INTOTHE WRN ATLC...WITH AN ELONGATED E-W RIDGE OVER THE DEEP SOUTH ...INBTWN THE TWO TROUGHS. WEAKLY DIFFLUENT FLOW ACROSS SOUTH FL ISKEEPING SOME HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE SRN CWA....OTRW SKC SAVE FOR A FEWSCRAPS OF LOW BASED SC OCNLY BRUSHING THE EAST COAST.TODAY/TONIGHT...WHILE THE MOISTURE PROFILE WILL REMAIN SIMILAR TOTHE LAST SEVERAL DAYS (DEEPEST ACROSS THE SOUTH) THE FLOW PATTERNWILL BEGIN TO TRANSITION FROM LIGHT DEEP LAYER FLOW TO AN INCSRGWRLY FLOW (ALBEIT RATHER LIGHT WRLYS TODAY). THIS REGIME WILL ONCEAGAIN FAVOR HIGHEST POPS SOUTH...THEN A LITTLE HIGHER ALONG THE EASTCOAST DURG THE LATE AFTN/EVE. GRIDDED POPS WILL PRETTY MUCH RUN WITHTHE MAV NUMBERS...LKLY NORTH/CTRL AND CATEGORICAL ACROSS THE FARSOUTH.SUN...DEEP TROUGHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE CENTRAL GULF MEX WL KEEPMOIST SW FLOW PATN ACROSS STATE. WEAK CYCLOGENESIS IS SHOWN ALONGSFC BOUNDARY STALLED NORTH OF THE STATE AND AMPLE COUNTERING FLOW INLOWER LEVELS WL HOLD OFF DEVELOPMENT OF AN EAST COAST BREEZE.NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN WITH ACTIVITY MOVINGACROSS THE AREA AND THE COASTAL WATERS FROM SW TO NE. MAINCONVECTIVE THREAT WL BE FREQUENT LIGHTNING...WIND GUSTS AND PERIODSOF HEAVY RAIN.MON-FRI...TROUGHING OVER THE EAST WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OUT AND THE ATLC RIDGEAXIS INITIALLY OVER S FL WL GRADUALLY LIFT TO CENTRAL FL BY TUE ANDREMAIN THROUGH MID-WEEK THEN FINALLY NORTH OF THE AREA THU-FRI. THISPATN WL PRODUCE A DRYING TREND EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH LIGHTERGRADIENT WINDS AND BUILDING OF HIGH PRESSURE AND MODEST SUBSIDENCEALOFT. PRECIP COVERAGE WL DECREASE TO CLIMO SCT RANGE WITH AFTERNOONSTORMS...MAINLY INLAND DEPENDANT ON BREEZE AND BOUNDARY INTERACTIONSTHROUGH MIDWEEK. OVERALL STEERING FLOW WILL REMAIN OUT OF THESOUTH...WHICH SHOULD BE ABLE TO MAINTAIN SUFFICIENT MOISTURE TO KEEPSCT POPS IN THE FCST THRU MID WEEK. RIDGE OVER N FL BY END OF WORKWEEK SHOULD ACT TO OPEN UP TROPICS IN DEEP ELY FLOW.
 Mornin Chef...Feel free to send some precip over here today.
 Randrewl, That "weak wave" stayed pretty much intact overnight, Looks like the east coast should see some rain today.
 000ABNT20 KNHC 220917TWOAT TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL530 AM EDT SAT JUL 22 2006FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.FORECASTER BEVEN
 chefjeff....I'm hoping you are right.
 Three of the 850 vort models are showing this bit of convection hanging over extreme south Florida moving off up the east coast and gone...quick.
 Good Morning all,Since I cannot possibly sleep through it, thought I would let you know we are having another tremendous electrical storm here in SW Florida. If anyone remembers the discussion we had a couple of days ago about lightning proximity related to decibels - this is another of those incredibly loud storms.Whatever else is happening with the blob we've watching, the past three days have brought much higher than normal raninfall (the count before yesterday was over 12" month-to-date) with much more thunder and lightning than usual. If I don't lose power I'll get over and check the loops. This storm has kept me awake most of the night so I'm kind of loopy myself.
 FLAnative....Your rainfall rate should be mine as well for this month. I've only had less than three inches. Your lightning storms interest me. Maybe the dust within the convection when it comes in contact with land is then charged in a way that you usually do not see.Just want more information regarding the dust and electrically charged storms.
 yeah someone just said models have it coming up east coast
 OMG...local mets on tv again!
 Deep Thoughts... Posted By: Randrewl at 6:26 AM GMT on July 22, 2006."All theories including weather related are just unproven assumptions.In plain english.....theories are worthless."This coming from somebody who posted84 times in this science blog today.A stone may stay at the bottom of a riverfor 100 years, and when broken open willstill be dry inside (See "theory" of diffusion)I would go as far as to say no theory is worthless.A theory is invalidated when it is contradictedby experimental or observational evidence, but the construction of theories is part of thedialectic process in the progress of science. A theory that is supported by experimental and observational evidence will have good predictive value and is very usefulin the quest of humankind to understand ourselves and the universe that surrounds us.It is important to distinguish betweentheories and beliefs. I once had a disagreementwith another older gentleman on the natureof the theory of electromagnetics, as embodiedin Maxwell's Equations. I believe them to bea human construct, a well-verified mathematicalmodel of phenomena observable in the time andspace scales of human perception. His belief was that they are rules created by God that had been discovered through the progress of science. Being beliefs, there was no way to resolveour disagreement, but we both recognized this and did not lose respect for one another.
 Raindrool (to quote AquaK9)Yeah, I do wonder what is all related that creates this scenario since it seems to be continuing.Interesting, last night I watched TWC (shhhhh, I just peeked there a minute) and they were doing a bit on the heat weave in the Seattle area (101 yesterday when they are usually about 80) and a lady described the very similar condition with the loud lightning. Also, the met mentioned many lightning strikes were occuring without rainfall.
 Theories when proven as fact are no longer an assumption!Guy.....life is really not as complicated as breaking open a rock to disprove a theory. Once it is broken...the theory is then fact!I accept that. Just do not shove assumptions down my throat that are not fact and expect me as a free thinking human to accept them.Whine on about all the theories you want...they are simply not fact and only assumptions!Pretty simple man.
 FLAnative...Appreciate that. I'm mostly interested in the relationship of the Saharan dust and convection once it makes landfall. That could not happen in the northwest. There is something about the dust particles within the convection that once it all hits land the dust particles become charged in a certain way that causes intense electrical storms.Heat over the US is pretty normal. This heat wave is not unusual.
 there are many theories..that can not be proved for years...take davinci as an example....were his worthless?
 following up on theories..is what bring us to new facts......
 Randrewl - I think I should not have taken your quote our of context, so I apologize for the long rant...it is a sure thing that there can be competing theories, as there are in the case of Global Warming, but the theories themselves are not worthless. Eventually, the competing theories will be resolved as the observations will support some theory over the others. Only in mathematics can we prove something, and while mathematics are used to model the science, in science all we have are theories. We can never actually "prove" anything in science, we can only amass overwhelming evidence. If new evidence comes in that contradicts the theory, we have to change the theory. That is my take on it.
 good morning folks heres is weather outlook for prHAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOKNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR600 AM AST SAT JUL 22 2006PRZ001>013-AMZ710>750-231000-600 AM AST SAT JUL 22 2006THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PUERTO RICO..TODAY AND TONIGHT...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACCOMPANYING A WEAK TROPICALWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OFAFTERNOON SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER THEWEST INTERIOR AND NORTHWEST SECTIONS. SOME OF THIS SHOWER ACTIVITYWILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY AND THEREFORE HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO CREATEMINOR FLOODING PROBLEMS MAINLY IN LOW LYING AND POORLY DRAINEDAREAS..DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE WILL ENTER THEEASTERN CARIBBEAN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL BRINGADDITIONAL MOISTURE TO THE AREA. LOCAL AND DIURNAL EFFECTS WILLCOMBINE TO PRODUCE AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMSMAINLY ACROSS THE WEST AND INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. ANOTHERTROPICAL WAVE WILL ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN TUESDAY INTOWEDNESDAY. THIS WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALLWITH URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING IN SOME AREAS..SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
 Yes, theories bring us all closer to the truth. I totally agree.Here's a great example of theory.Living in south Florida would I build a home based on theoretical plans from an architect that swears his plans will protect my family in 200mph winds. What?Is there such a thing as theoretical architecture? I don't think so. I cannot assume that the architect knows his stuff can I?NO!
 well said guygee
 Ran plenty of nice afternoon showers over here you want some
 guygee...I know what you are saying and I appreciate that. My stick is that western mathematics and physics is a flawed curriculum. If it were pure why would there be so many theories?
 western?....hmmm...there's recognized geographical types of curriculum?......please expound
 Does anyone really know how advanced the rest of this planet is? Simply because Eastern and far Eastern universities teach a more pure form of almost everything! The western curriculum is meant to keep you all hung up!
 Ignorance by design. Sucks doesn't it.
 what?...ran.....you might try traveling before you say that
 have you been to China?...seen what they teach?...try north vietnam...why is it that most people that have the means...will send their children to american universites?...
 talk about useless theories
 If you want the education you deserve as a smart individual you will not accomplish that goal in the US or western europe. My son is heading off to college this fall at Stetson in central FL only because he can get out in his sophomore year to study abroad. I'm all there for him.
 well i have a brain teaser for you guys yesterday i asked about how a volcano (monserat in this case) could effect a developing tropical system or a hurricane if it were to pass over it or come in contact with its plume
 Randrewl - A amjority of the student Masters and Ph.D. applications to U.S. universities in the science and engineering disciplines come from China and India these days. That might be partly because they want into the U.S., but some of them do go back after they get their degrees.As for designing a home that can withstand 200 mph winds, why not? It doesn't sound like a very difficult engineering problem, if you don't mind your house looking like a military bunker (which are engineered to withstand high pressure and radiation from blasts). I am sure it would cost a pretty penny or two, though.
 First of all...the education you deserve irks me....makes it sound that you are owed something..in regards to education..it should be what you put into it...i'm the first college graad in my family...i could only see one choice....naval academy..and at the age of 14...i found out what would give me the chance to get in and busted my butt to accomplish it..i've traveled this world through the navy..and if there is a better place to live..with as much oppurtunity as we have here..i have not seen it..i've a son with a berkeley degree in international banking...working in hong kong...who tells me how many wealthy and influential people...strive to put there children in american schools..to say that eastern education is pure..must mean..that most of the world...doesn't have the insight that you have
 Well as for building better homes you guys in the states NEED TO STOP BUILDING HOUSES OUT OF PAPER here in PR we build with concrete and tempered glass no jimpson board no plaster walls pure concrete
 BOCStation 42055 - Bay of CampecheAtmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.89 in(PTDY): -0.02 in ( Falling )can somebody send some "seagulls" down to the BOC and check this out! :) possible moisture for s. texas???? it may be too close to the coast for much....we may also have to send some gulls down to Bahammas...... pressures seem to be dropping "a little" there as well.....these seem to be the area's of interest today..... will also be interesting to see if we get a big "flare-up" again today in s.fla.......
 Well, I have put forth much food for thought. For the Jarhead on the blog....I live in the US and would not want to live anywhere else. None of what I have said is a slam on the US ...although somehow people tend to think that whenever anyone says something might be better for you anywhere else.Eastern countries send their kids here as a kind of resume thing for their future. Their real education is not achieved in the US.
 mrpuertorico - I saw the sulfates showing up on the NAAP aerosol concentration maps a couple of days ago, I was wondering what was causing that. At the time I hadn't heard of the eruption.There is a theory that increased aerosol concentrations (including sulfate particles from volcanic eruptions) could provide an excess of condensation nuclei, making the cloud droplets smaller in clouds and thereby possibly supressing rain to some extent. Sulfate and sea salt particles are hygroscopic and do not suppress cloud formation like dust does. I believe that volcanic ash is usually made up of bigger particles and does not affect cloud formation much, but instead more readily falls out of the atmosphere. The affect of aerosols in the troposphere on weather and cloud formation is still not completely understood, and is an active area of research.
 Good morning all,I see the Bahamas are looking interesting today.Can't wait to see what the afternoon brings,with the heating of the atmosphere.
 thanks guygee heres a little first hand experience with the monserat volcano and please go look at your maps for those who don't know how far monserat is from pr, when the wind is just right the trade winds carry clouds laden with ash (and by the way ash is made up of silcates aka glass particles along with other minerals) and these clouds can produce hazerdous weather conditions large amounts of lighting and copius amounts of rain. When the rain stops you ussually left with a layer of volcanic dust all over everything. I just wonder what these sylcates and other particles would do if a hurricane went right over the volcano or with in the path of its plume and keep in mind volcanoes can spew out millions of tons of material evryday!
 mrpuertorico - I saw the results of an F5 tornado that passed over a strip mall made of cinderblocks - the result was a big pile of cinderblocks, nothing left standing at all. Across the street there was a small historical home that was built out of thick native rock - it survived. Down the hill a bit there was a neighborhood of wood frame homes, many people died there.Steel reinforced concrete sounds like the way to go for the walls, but what do you do for your roof?
 mrpuertorico - That is interesting information about the ash causing excess lightning and storms. Silicates are not hygroscopic, so maybe the ash creates a dry layer that gets broken by passing over the elevation of PR, causing more severe storms than the usual tropical rain type storms. I know even here in Florida when there is a dry layer above and the convection pops up the storms tend to be more severe. Maybe one of the MET types here could expound on that further...
 Hurricane WarningI have updated about Hurricane Daniel, newly formed tropical storm Emilia, and Typhoon Kamei on hurricane warning.
 Morning allSeafarer, don't know if you saw my post about Hugo last night, but I was just up the road form you.Anywho, everything looks pretty quite out there today including the forecast models :)There is still some slite chance of development with the area in the Bahamas, but very unlikely.Catch ya'll laterStormJunkie.com
 Morning All, Just stopped by to see what was being said about Florida & the GOM. We had some rain yesterday but its a sunny day in the Tampa area this morning.Taking my two little ones to meet the whole fam damily for breakfast. :)Great discussions last night. Drewl, looks like you were on here for awhile by yourself. Thanks for the links and thoughts. :)
 ok i am back sorry lost power (happens alot around here)
 we don't build with blocks our walls are solid conrete my roof my walls stairs everything but the front door and windows lol what they do here is take blocks reiforced with rebarb wrapped in concrete that is the average house in pr our roofs and this is critical are made of te same material as our houses basically we live in solid concrete blocks reinforced with steel
 according to Dr. Lyons, this feature is an UL trough, and tropical formation associated with this feature is "not expected"....course "Beryl" was "not expected" either! LOL
 Ah and some other builders here ( and by the way i am a licensed home inspector) make a cast out of wood planks and rebarb and just poor the concrete into it and vuala! a wall!
 "upper-level trough—(Also called upper trough, upper-air trough, high-level trough, trough aloft.) A pressure trough existing in the upper air. This term is sometimes restricted to those troughs that are much more pronounced aloft than near the earth's surface. These troughs are often described as either short-wave or long-wave features.""short wave—1. (Or minor wave.) With regard to atmospheric circulation, a progressive wave in the horizontal pattern of air motion with dimensions of cyclonic scale, as distinguished from a long wave. A short wave moves in the same direction as that of the prevailing basic current through the troposphere. The angular wavenumber of short waves ranges between eight and twenty. See cyclone wave. 2. A wave with a relatively short wavelength and period. For ocean wind waves, this usually means waves with periods shorter than about 60 s.""long wave—1. (Or major wave; also called planetary wave.) With regard to atmospheric circulation, a wave in the major belt of westerlies that is characterized by large length and significant amplitude. The wave length is typically longer than that of the rapidly moving individual cyclonic and anticyclonic disturbances of the lower troposphere. The angular wavenumber of long waves is generally taken to be from 1 to 5. Compare short wave; see Rossby wave. 2. (Also called shallow water wave.) A wave with a relatively long wave length and period. For ocean waves, this is typically a wave of period greater than about 10 s and wave length greater than about 150 m."for those inquiring minds that want to know! ;)when somebody figures out what it all means, let me know! :D
 guygee sent you a message so you can see the link to my website lots of my pr homes so you can see what i am saying better
 mrpuertorico - Thanks for the explanation. Doesn't sound like it would be much more expensive either. But I am sure the developers would use wood frames even here if the local government didn't force them with building codes to use cinderblocks, as is evident in many other coastal counties that allow for wood-frame houses on the beach. If I was building from scratch I would go with the steel-reinforced concrete. Maybe if landfalling hurricanes increase on the mainland the insurance lobbyists will force reform in building codes - but then they would have to fight the developer lobbyists - that is how the government seems to work.
 i dind't want to get introuble for posting a my company's website in the blog
 no the lol the wood frames are just planks of wood for the setting of the concrete they get taken off once its dry what your left with is a masive solid concrete wall reinforced
 mrpuertorico - I was talking about the wood frame buildings in certain areas of the US mainland...believe it or not, it is not uncommon to see woodframe houses right on the beach in many areas.
 Yeah it was like that here before hugo after though all those wooden fram houses where gone now these beautiful concrete manshions are there...sigh i want one :(
 mrpuertorico - Thanks for the message, I'll be interested to check it out.I am off to take advantage of the morning, because the storms will be blowing my way this afternoon. Have a good day!
 catch a storm for me happy hunting
 There building some of those houses around here, but they used steal sheets for forms. Concrete truck comes in & pours the walls. Very energy efficent. The ones close by here they are building, they skipped the concrete roof, though there is a house on State Road 3 (east side) that is all concrete. For the locals~ don't use Majestic builders on the concrete house building, slow & managed to get some leans on atleast one house by shody sub-contracting.MrPuertoRico~ You see the volcano ash, hurricane thing I left ya at the beginning of this thread?
 in the spirit of 456 trivia for the day what are the 5at landfall strongest hurricanes to hit the US?at land fall not in the open waters are latin ameriaca.also for all the constant fla stormm reminiscing only one of those hit fla.and the wave off africa look at the wv image for central atl noting but dryair ahead of it lol. system off bahams and fla looks to have fizzeled. awnser to the trivia question i think willsuprise some, of course it needs to be in the 35 and older group lol
 Ok just read it thanksskyepony it was intersting but it still hasn't really answered my question h i have been surfing the net aswell and still have yet to find something that acctually can explain or at least theorize what would happen to tropical systems say hurricanes that absorb these materials could they get worse like more lighting or would it diminish a hurricane or tropical system
 Interesting to note on that question saint, that out of the top 10 there were only two in the last 20 years, and only one in the past 15.
 Sorry ya'll.....CORRECTIONOnly three of the top ten were in the last 20 years, and only one in the last 10 years.
 very good sj i have work to do so ill give the awnser i hate secrets never knew one to be keptstrongest to weakest 1]BY FAR AND AWAY camille 190 2} andrew 160 i still have doubts lol3) hugo 135 4) and the surprise fredrick 132 3or 4 take your pick 5) katrina 125 if you believe a storm at 923 mbis only 125 mph lol. also this info comes from the weather office at keesler afb we know who is stationed there. alsowhere i get my weather interest from family friend who is a hurricane hunter and one retiered hunter they also laugh at the nhc for downgradingkatrina after the reports they sent them before landfall and what they saw after. the thinking here on the ms coast is the nhc or jokefield or in cahootswith the insurance companies who refuse to pay claims saying it was all flood winds were not as strong i guess we should see if mayfields boys have some nice new toys in the last year.im sure i will catch grief from some of the nhc fan worshippers although come to the ms coast and see for yourself.
 Researchers Link Wildfires, Climate ChangeScientists worldwide are watching temperatures rise, the land turn dry and vast forests go up in flames. In the Siberian taiga and Canadian Rockies, in southern California and Australia, researchers find growing evidence tying an upsurge in wildfires to climate change, an impact long predicted by global-warming forecastersMrPR~ Last year more than once (worldwide) when a hurricane passed over a volcano it exploded, I think Stan was one. Not much studies have been done. This phenominoen was deemed coincidence in most circles. One guy is studying hurricanes causing earthquakes (he has a peer reviewed paper online somewhere)...which might help set off a volcano? But when the 'canes get involved with the volcanos the high mountain tends to tear them apart. Though it seems in the case of the Central America, NPR said it rained mud & since the volcano had been somewhat active recently, with the ash already on the ground, villages were wiped out by mud slides.
 good mornin', anything interesting to be watching?
 you can see a nice spin on emiliaLink
 Ya'll are forgetting Labor Day Hurricane of 1935The Labor Day Hurricane was a very compact, intense hurricane that formed in the North Atlantic during August 1935. It remains the strongest hurricane on record to have struck the United States, and was for five decades the strongest Atlantic hurricane ever. 892mb at landfall(I've heard stories it was less), windspeed is still debatable.
 now, this is way cooler than Daniel and isabelLink
 did'nt camille make landfall as 190mph?
 then camille would be the strongest hurricane to make landfall with 190mph...if it made landfall like that,i may be wrong?
911. IKE
 Dr. M has a new blog.