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Beryl a little stronger, closes in on Southeast U.S. coast

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:21 PM GMT on May 27, 2012

The beach-going weather this Memorial Day weekend will deteriorate rapidly this afternoon along the Southeast U.S. coast near the Florida/Georgia border, where Subtropical Storm Beryl is steadily closing in. A hurricane hunter aircraft found top surface winds near 60 mph in heavy thunderstorms to the northeast of Beryl's center at 9:15 am EDT this morning; top winds in the region to the southwest of the center were a little weaker, near 55 mph. This region is now approaching the coast of northern Florida. Winds at the Buoy 41012, 46 miles ENE of St. Augustine and to the southeast of Beryl's center, hit 38 mph gusting to 49 mph, at 11 am EDT this morning. Wave heights at the buoy were 12 feet, and Beryl is driving heavy surf that is generating dangerous rip currents along a large section of the Southeast U.S. coast. On Saturday, at least 32 people were rescued by lifeguards at Tybee Island, Georgia due to strong rip currents generated by Beryl's crashing surf.


Figure 1. True-color MODIS satellite image of Beryl taken at 12:20 pm EDT May 26, 2012 by NASA's Aqua satellite. At the time, Beryl was a subtropical storm with winds of 45 mph.


Figure 2. Morning radar image from the long-range radar out of Jacksonville, FL.

Forecast for Beryl
Beryl is still a subtropical storm, as evidenced by its large, cloud-free center, but the storm is steadily building a large amount of heavy thunderstorms near the center this morning, as the storm traverses the core of the Gulf Stream. The warm 27 - 28°C (81 - 83°F) waters of the Gulf Stream are helping warm and moisten the atmosphere near Beryl's core, and it is possible that Beryl will become a tropical storm before landfall late Sunday night. As I explain in my Subtropical Storm Tutorial, the fact that the storm has not been able to generate a tight inner core with heavy thunderstorms near the center will limit its intensification potential, and we need not be concerned about rapid intensification of Beryl while it is still subtropical.The clockwise flow of air around an extremely intense ridge of high pressure that is bringing record heat to the Midwest this weekend is currently driving Beryl to the west. As Beryl approaches the coast tonight, the storm will move off of the warmest Gulf Stream waters into waters that are cooler (25°, 77°F), and with lower total heat content. A portion of the storm's circulation will also be over land, and these two factors will limit the storm's potential to strengthen. Beryl is also struggling against a large amount of dry that surrounds the storm, due to the presence of an upper-level trough of low pressure. The 11 am Sunday wind probability advisory from NHC gave Beryl just an 6% chance of becoming a hurricane before landfall. Flooding due to heavy rains is probably not a huge concern with this storm, particularly since the Southeast U.S. coast is under moderate to extreme drought. The 3 - 6 inches of rain expected from Beryl will not be enough to bust the drought, since the Southeast U.S. is generally suffering a rainfall deficit of 9 - 12 inches (Figure 4.) Heavy rains from Beryl will begin affecting coastal Georgia and Northern Florida near 3 pm Sunday.


Figure 3. Predicted rainfall from Beryl, as taken from the 06 UTC May 27, 2012 run of the HWRF model. A large area of 4 - 8 inches of rain (dark green colors) is predicted for the drought-stricken areas of Northern Florida and Southern Georgia. Image credit: Morris Bender, NOAA/GFDL.


Figure 4. Much of the Southeast U.S. needs 9 - 12 inches of rain (red colors) to bust the current drought. A drought is defined as "busted" when the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) goes higher than -0.5. As seen from the HWRF precipitation forecast in Figure 3, most of the drought relief from Beryl will occur near the coast, and the most needy areas (purple colors in Figure 3) are expected to get little rainfall. Image credit: NOAA.

Links to follow
Wundermap for the FL/GA coastal region
Long-range radar out of Jacksonville, FL
Jacksonville, FL live pier cam

Scorching May heat wave hits much of the U.S.; severe weather expected in the Midwest
An exceptionally strong high pressure system anchored over the central U.S. is bringing record-smashing May heat to much of the country this Memorial Day weekend. Dozens of daily high temperature records fell on Saturday, including several all-time records for the month of May. Vichy-Rolla, Missouri hit 98°F, beating its all-time May heat record of 95° set on May 15, 1899. Columbus, Georgia hit 97°F, tying the record hottest May day on record. Saturday's high of 100°F in Tallahassee was the second highest May temperature since record keeping began in 1892. Pensacola's 98°F on Saturday was its second highest May temperature since record keeping began in 1879 (the record May temperature in both cities is 102°F, set on May 27, 1953.) Nashville, Tennessee hit 95°F on Saturday, just 1° shy of their all-time May heat record. That record could fall today, and numerous all-time May heat records will be threatened in the Midwest, Great Lakes, and Tennessee Valley. As is often the case when one portion of the country is experiencing record heat, the other half is seeing unusually cool conditions, due to a large kink in the jet stream. Billings, Montana received 1.3" of snow Saturday, and Great Falls had received 2.3" as of 6 am this morning. The dividing line between the warm conditions in the Eastern U.S. and cool conditions to the west lies over Nebraska and Kansas today, and NOAA's Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed portions of these states in their "Moderate Risk" area for severe weather--the second highest level of alert.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

2501. Buhdog
I am a little concerned seeing how easily the last two storms did in the face of hostility and conditions (time of year)
The change over from sub to tropical was amazing and ominous.
REPOST
**THE LATEST**
(click to enlarge; graphic can further be enlarged in Link window)
Quoting mattw479:
Band just came through Brunswick and St. Simons Island....Torrential downpours with horizontal rain....Wind gust still going....ponding of water and loud booms in distance and sky lighting up...Gust easy to 50mph with sustained up around 40mph....


You'll have about a 20 min lull in Brunswick then you'll get into the heavier bands in the NE Quadrant. Stay safe.

Quoting cchsweatherman:


I'm seeing absolutely nothing going on at the surface with the latest WindSAT data with the disturbed weather in the Western Caribbean. No sign of organization of any kind happening at the surface.

I would expect you to say that and I would expect me to say that
look yes there is no sign of organization (NOW) but there maybe some later tomrrow or should I say today I didn't expect organised wind at the surface yet considering this system just builded from yesterday mid-day I say it should get better soon
Quoting AllStar17:
**THE LATEST**
(click to enlarge; graphic can further be enlarged in Link window)


I think it's about time I said this:

I don't know how you put these graphics together, but they're absolutely killer.


more after this models show it
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
I also want to not that WindSat shows that there is something going on down at the surface in the W caribbean this system need to be watched closely


Quoting wunderkidcayman:

I would expect you to say that and I would expect me to say that
look yes there is no sign of organization (NOW) but there maybe some later tomrrow or should I say today I didn't expect organised wind at the surface yet considering this system just builded from yesterday mid-day I say it should get better soon


Re-read the first statement you made which I have made the first quote here. You stated that something is going on down at the surface meaning that you are stating that as a present condition. You said it as a statement of fact, not as a forecast. The only thing present at the surface is typical westerlies across the Caribbean and then the typical monsoonal/heat low over Panama and Colombia. Additionally, upper level winds are not favorable and will not likely improve much in the next few days.
if anywhere,watch the SE GOM for a possible AOI as beryl departs the scene tuesday-thursday time period,and leaves behind a surface trough(Tail)
Quoting nofailsafe:


I think it's about time I said this:

I don't know how you put these graphics together, but they're absolutely killer.


Thank you very much for the compliment! I really do enjoy making them.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


more after this models show it

could be the next system down in the W carib
Quoting cchsweatherman:


I'm seeing absolutely nothing going on at the surface with the latest WindSAT data with the disturbed weather in the Western Caribbean. No sign of organization of any kind happening at the surface.
Some converging winds along the 15˚N latitudinal line. Possibly a surface trough.
Quoting AllStar17:


Thank you very much for the compliment! I really do enjoy making them.


I Appreciate your work too, keep up the great work.
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Some converging winds along the 15˚N latitudinal line. Possibly a surface trough.


The only thing present at the surface is typical westerlies across the Caribbean and then the typical monsoonal/heat low over Panama and Colombia. Additionally, upper level winds are not favorable and will not likely improve much in the next few days.
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

I would expect you to say that and I would expect me to say that
look yes there is no sign of organization (NOW) but there maybe some later tomrrow or should I say today I didn't expect organised wind at the surface yet considering this system just builded from yesterday mid-day I say it should get better soon


The fuchsia flag & the rain contaminated 50kt were worth noting.
Quoting cchsweatherman:




Re-read the first statement you made which I have made the first quote here. You stated that something is going on down at the surface meaning that you are stating that as a present condition. You said it as a statement of fact, not as a forecast. The only thing present at the surface is typical westerlies across the Caribbean and then the typical monsoonal/heat low over Panama and Colombia. Additionally, upper level winds are not favorable and will not likely improve much in the next few days.

as I said wait and see things may change soon the upper level winds I am expecting to drop in 48-96 hours from now down to about 15-20kt wich should give a little leeway so development and for shear to drop further after that time frame
2514. cchsweatherman 5:23 AM GMT on May 28, 2012

I am not insinuating anything however, there is turning at the surface associated with the southern blob.



Quoting cchsweatherman:


The only thing present at the surface is typical westerlies across the Caribbean and then the typical monsoonal/heat low over Panama and Colombia. Additionally, upper level winds are not favorable and will not likely improve much in the next few days.


8pm NHC discussion made mention of remnant tropical wave in the western Caribbean.
Quoting cchsweatherman:


The only thing present at the surface is typical westerlies across the Caribbean and then the typical monsoonal/heat low over Panama and Colombia. Additionally, upper level winds are not favorable and will not likely improve much in the next few days.
Upper-divergence from that upper-low over the Yucatan is the only thing sustaining this convective flare-up; take that away and you have nothing.

Ridging should build-in over the southwestern Caribbean in about 72 hours. If there's anything there in that time-frame, then we may see some tropical cyclogenesis.
Quoting ProgressivePulse:
I am not insinuating anything however, there is turning at the surface associated with the southern blob.



That's all in association with the typical monsoonal/heat low that resides over Panama, Colombia, and the extreme Southwestern Caribbean. It's nothing more than that.
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Some converging winds along the 15˚N latitudinal line. Possibly a surface trough.


Quoting cchsweatherman:


The only thing present at the surface is typical westerlies across the Caribbean and then the typical monsoonal/heat low over Panama and Colombia. Additionally, upper level winds are not favorable and will not likely improve much in the next few days.


no
likely to be the tropical wave that the NHC dropped plus the nhc's 24-74 hour forecast charts are showing the development of a surface trough in the same area

there is low level convergence in the area but it is low however just keep an eye on it
Rapid Weakening Flag thrown on Beryl. Still 2.7, curved band reprise..
CycloneOz driving around in it...left the yawning.
Do any of you guys think that there could be more US landfalls this year if an el nino pattern does set up causing more short track storms?
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1257 AM EDT MON MAY 28 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1250 AM TROPICAL STORM JACKSONVILLE BEACH 30.28N 81.39W
05/28/2012 DUVAL FL NWS EMPLOYEE

OFF DUTY NWS EMPLOYEE REPORTED ROUGH SURF AROUND 6 FEET
AND WATER WAS UP TO THE DUNE LINE AT JACKSONVILLE BEACH.

anyway I am out for the early morning I'll check back in around 4/5ish
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


gfs has this going pretty far west now
2533. TXCWC
Current JEA (Jacksonville) Custmers without power around 29,000 (outage map link below). Actually not to bad considering was a direct hit...thank God this storm did not have an extra day over water.
Link
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Quoting Hurricanes101:


forms in November, the worst natural disaster in US history lol
Mitt Romney.

Hahahahah perfect

Let's hope Mitt never forms...
Quoting TXCWC:
Current JEA (Jacksonville) Custmers without power around 29,000 (outage map link below). Actually not to bad considering was a direct hit...thank God this storm did not have an extra day over water.
Link


Backside just coming onshore now.

Pretty good wind herein Brunswick....looks like some more rain coming in....It appears the time in between the bands is getting closer together....


fully overland now
2538. Jax82
Just got done driving south 95 through GA back to Jax Beach. It was pretty nasty right at the FL/GA border, i even passed someone on a motorcycle which i found stupid, the wind was rolling. Looks like we have the eastern eyewall coming ashore very soon. Going to be nasty for the next few hours.
2539. Patrap
2540. Patrap
2542. Mclem1
Quoting Patrap:
Nothing quite like listening to CyclonOz snoring during Landfall.


He's resting for a couple hours before the chase tomorrow. Let the man be.
He's intent on experiencing MAJOR hurricanes.
So it's easy to understand why CycloneOz finds tropical storms to be very relaxing.
2544. Patrap
Lighten up Francis, I was plugging his UStream Link.
Oh what I would do to be in northeast Florida right now.
2547. Patrap
Valdosta
NEXRAD Radar

Base Reflectivity 0.50° Elevation
Range 124 NMI


Quoting KoritheMan:
Oh what I would do to be in northeast Florida right now.


Come on man!!
Can you imagine the havoc on here if TSBeryl crossed Florida to become another wrong-way hurricane
Seeing Beryl's affects all the way down here in Manatee County, FL. Tornado Warnings are up until 4am. Starting to see some of that West to South flow on the very last outer band of Beryl, which will increase the tornado development.
2459. allancalderini: ...NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI...
...1215 AM EDT MON MAY 28 2012
...
[Tropical Storm]...BERYL MAKES LANDFALL...NEAR JACKSONVILLE BEACH...AROUND...0410 UTC...
...ESTIMATED INTENSITY OF BERYL AT LANDFALL WAS 70 MPH...110 KM/H...
...LOCATION...30.3N 81.4W


Derived from (NWS) NHC.SpecialAdvisory for 28May4:15amGMT and
the (NHC) ATCF data for 28May12amGMT for TropicalStormBeryl:
TS.Beryl made landfall on 28May4:10amEDT at ~30.3n81.4w
Its vector had changed from West at ~6.9mph(11.2km/h) to WNWest at ~11.9mph(19.2km/h)
(ATCF-to-ATCF is averaged over 6hours. This ATCF-to-NHC.Special is averaged over 4hours10minutes)
MaxSusWinds had held steady at ATCF's ~60knots(69mph)111km/h / NHC's ~60knots(70mph)110kmh
(ATCF's rounds to the nearest 5knots. The NHC.Advisory rounds to the nearest 5mph and 5km/h.
eg 70mph is ~60.8knots while 110km/h is ~59.4knots.
)
And minimum pressure had held steady at 993millibars

For those who like to visually track TS.Beryl's path...
UST is ST.Augustine . FD48 is PonteVedraBeach . NRB is MayportNavalBase . JAX is Jacksonville

The Easternmost dot on the connected line-segments is where SubTropicaStormBeryl became TS.Beryl
The Westernmost dot on the connected line-segments was where TropicalStormBeryl made landfall

The Westernmost line-segment is a straightline-projection
through TS.Beryl's 2 most recent positions to the coastline.
The KFXL dumbbell was the endpoint of the 27May12pmGMT straightline projection
connected to its closest airport.
The FD48 dumbbell was the endpoint of the 28May12amGMT straightline projection
connected to its closest airport.
On 28May4:10amGMT, TS.Beryl made landfall upon JacksonvilleBeach,Florida

Copy&paste ust, fd48-30.096n81.339w, nrb, jax, 30.1n79.9w-30.1n80.6w, 30.1n80.6w-30.3n81.4w into the GreatCircleMapper for more information.
The previous mapping for comparison.
2552. Mclem1
Quoting aspectre:
Can you imagine the havoc on here if TSBeryl crossed Florida to become another wrong-way hurricane


The storm will turn around after the high passes over it's just a matter of when it turns. Dont think it will become a wrong way, itll either break up over land or keep moving northeast once it turns
2553. JLPR2
Quoting Patrap:
Valdosta
NEXRAD Radar

Base Reflectivity 0.50° Elevation
Range 124 NMI




It sure seems to be holding up pretty nicely.

Also, this blob has an interesting shape. Probably just rain at the surface, still... it's pretty. Ha!
2554. JLPR2
The only level in which the blob has some vort is at 700mb.



Nada at 850mb.
Quoting traumaboyy:


Come on man!!


Unfortunately I have work obligations. That's what separates me from who I was last year. If my schedule permits, I'll chase, but currently I'm not very enthusiastic.
000
WTNT42 KNHC 280846
TCDAT2

TROPICAL STORM BERYL DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022012
500 AM EDT MON MAY 28 2012

BERYL HAS BEEN WEAKENING SINCE LANDFALL...AS INDICATED BY DECREASING
SURFACE WIND OBSERVATIONS AND DOPPLER VELOCITIES...ESPECIALLY OVER
LAND. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS 45 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY...WITH THE
HIGHEST WINDS LIKELY OCCURRING IN RAINBANDS EAST AND NORTHEAST OF
THE CENTER. BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...THE CENTRAL PRESSURE
HAS RISEN TO 997 MB. BERYL SHOULD CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS
IT MOVES FARTHER INLAND...BUT IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE A TROPICAL
STORM IN 12 HR...ALTHOUGH THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL LIKELY BE
CONFINED TO RAINBANDS NEAR THE COAST. BERYL SHOULD WEAKEN TO A
DEPRESSION BY 24 HOURS...WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH EXPECTED
WHILE THE CENTER REMAINS INLAND. SOME RE-INTENSIFICATION IS SHOWN
AFTER THE CENTER MOVES OFFSHORE ON WEDNESDAY AND UNDERGOES
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE NHC FORECAST IS
CLOSE TO THE LGEM UNTIL TRANSITION OCCURS.

BASED ON RADAR FIXES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS THE INITIAL MOTION
ESTIMATE IS 280/07...A LITTLE FASTER THAN INDICATED IN THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY. BERYL SHOULD SLOW DOWN TODAY AS A RIDGE TO THE NORTH
WEAKENS AND THE CYCLONE WILL TURN NORTHWARD AND NORTHEASTWARD ON
TUESDAY AS A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES. ADDITIONAL EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACCELERATION IS EXPECTED AT
DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...AS THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH THE TRACK OF BERYL AS IT IS ABSORBED INTO THE WESTERLIES. THE
NEW NHC FORECAST IS A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE
THROUGH 72 HOURS...AND REMAINS ON THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE CLOSE TO THE ECMWF. AT DAYS 4 AND 5 THE NHC FORECAST IS
CLOSE TO THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/0900Z 30.3N 82.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
12H 28/1800Z 30.6N 82.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
24H 29/0600Z 31.2N 82.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
36H 29/1800Z 31.9N 82.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
48H 30/0600Z 32.8N 79.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
72H 31/0600Z 35.7N 73.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER
96H 01/0600Z 38.5N 62.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 02/0600Z 43.0N 46.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/ROBERTS
2549 aspectre: Can you imagine the havoc on here if TSBeryl crossed Florida to become another wrong-way hurricane
2552 Mclem1: The storm will turn around after the high passes over it's just a matter of when it turns. Don't think it will become a wrong way, itll either break up over land or keep moving northeast once it turns

I agree about where the HIGH probability of occurence sits.
Just remembering a hurricane that made one Florida landfall from the Gulf, reached the Atlantic then reversed to make an Atlantic landfall upon Florida, then crossed back to the Gulf to make a third landfall upon Florida (or Alabama) as a tropical storm.
Could be a mismemory -- juxtaposing a couple of storms -- wish I remembered the hurricane name.
2558. Mclem1
Quoting aspectre:
2549 aspectre: Can you imagine the havoc on here if TSBeryl crossed Florida to become another wrong-way hurricane
2552 Mclem1: The storm will turn around after the high passes over it's just a matter of when it turns. Dont think it will become a wrong way, itll either break up over land or keep moving northeast once it turns

I agree about where the HIGH probability of occurence sits. Just remembering a hurricane that made one Florida landfall from the Gulf, reached the Atlantic then reversed to make an Atlantic landfall upon Florida, then crossed back to the Gulf to make a third landfall upon Florida (or Alabama).
Could be a mismemory -- juxtaposing a couple of storms -- wish I remembered the hurricane name.



Certainly would be amazing! I suppose we never really know until all is said and done!
Quoting KoritheMan:


Unfortunately I have work obligations. That's what separates me from who I was last year. If my schedule permits, I'll chase, but currently I'm not very enthusiastic.


Well if we have a strong storm come in I assume you know we can provide you with a safe basestation to work out of lol
Quoting traumaboyy:


Well if we have a strong storm come in I assume you know we can provide you with a safe basestation to work out of lol


:)
2562. LargoFl
2563. LargoFl
Good Morning Folks! and a Happy Memorial Day to everyone!..breezy here along the west coast of Florida, no rain here yet, supposedly it will come later on...well have a great day and for those in the path of that storm, stay safe ok....
2564. LargoFl
2565. gator23
Do a Beryl roll...
She hasnt been to bad here in Gainesville
Quoting TomTaylor:

Hahahahah perfect

Let's hope Mitt never forms...
Agreed,How things going Tom?
MR would be better than the "O" storm we've been experiencing.
Good morning, didn't hear the storm last night so not sure how much rain we had here. Had a few rain bands come through but not so much wind.
Today looks worse than yesterday according to Link HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
438 AM EDT MON MAY 28 2012
2570. WxLogic
Good Morning.
any 1st thoughts in regards to the low pressure remnants down in the caribbean/GOM?
Quoting stormpetrol:
Good morning. Raining up here again. Caribbean looking interesting again and a wave around 45W bears watching IMO.
North FL & S GA sure needed this rain. Fires have been burning for weeks with new ones breaking out. I am sure the folks in the FL panhandle are wishcasting Beryl goes a little further West as they are the color purple on the drought map Dr Masters posted.
Quoting odinslightning:
any 1st thoughts in regards to the low pressure remnants down in the caribbean/GOM?


Impressive convection, lots of upper level divergence, but lacking greatly in vorticity. The area of most vorticity is a good 100 miles south of the main convective blob. Shear at 30-40 knots, not exactly ideal but not necessarily fatal either. Not going to spin up quickly but worth keeping an eye on.
Quoting GainesvilleGator:
North FL & S GA sure needed this rain. Fires have been burning for weeks with new ones breaking out. I am sure the folks in the FL panhandle are wishcasting Beryl goes a little further West as they are the color purple on the draought map Dr Masters posted.
Sure hope they get the rain they need. Beryl seems to be holding up pretty good over land. Any idea when she will begin her return trip ?
2577. WxLogic
Quoting odinslightning:
any 1st thoughts in regards to the low pressure remnants down in the caribbean/GOM?


Currently... the convection down in the W Carib is not associated to a low pressure, but to the subtropical jet.

If convection is able to persist/increase then a low pressure could develop, but no evidence of one at 850/700/500MB at this time.
Left image show the NHC landfall position. Right image shows the landfall between 2 ATCF positions.

The NHC puts landfall in JacksonBeach. The ATCF-line position puts landfall in PonteVedraBeach.

The landfall coordinate on the straightline between the 2ATCF coordinates is 30.231n81.374w:
ie the PonteVerde landfall rounds to 30.2n81.4w while the NHC placed landfall at 30.3n81.4w

Now I know that the difference of 0.1degrees is well within the margin of error. But it does bring up an interesting question IF the NHC coordinate were closer to being on the exact landfall point.
The ATCF-to-NHC heading is WestNorthWest. The following NHC-to-ATCF heading is dueEast.
ie TS.Beryl was recurving Northward. Is it beginning to recurve Southward? toward the Gulf?

A link to the landfall map at the top of the page just to link this to other TS.Beryl mappings.
Quoting WxLogic:


Currently... the convection down in the W Carib is not associated to a low pressure, but to the subtropical jet.

If convection is able to persist/increase then a low pressure could develop, but no evidence of one at 850/700/500MB at this time.


ty
2580. LargoFl
2581. LargoFl
2582. LargoFl
Looks like Beryl starting to make its loop back out

2584. LargoFl
Hi, how are you folks in Jacksonville and Lake City holding up?..any damage or is it just blustery and raining?..hope everyone is safe




Cayman Islands this morning.
2586. LargoFl
Good morning everyone...



looks like Beryl might go alittle further inland then anticapated good news for the drought areas not so for tornados though keep safe folks

Link
Quoting stormpetrol:
Quoting odinslightning:
any 1st thoughts in regards to the low pressure remnants down in the caribbean/GOM?
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Good morning. Raining up here again. Caribbean looking interesting again and a wave around 45W bears watching IMO.


purple in the SW carib


if it sticks around for about 48-96 hours (I expect shear to drop in the 15-20kt range at that time) we will see the caribbean system ramp up

just cloudy up my end no rain yet


also note show nothing at 850 yet but at 700 does show weak vort in the area and at 500 it has one big size one in the GOH

as I said just keep an eye on it it will start to get interesting within 48-72 hours
also the area of convection in the W caribbean has now also conected with the low near cost rica panama colombia down there has a lot of convection maybe it is leaching on it for support untill it could hold it own in 48 hours
Quoting odinslightning:
any 1st thoughts in regards to the low pressure remnants down in the caribbean/GOM?


Nothing going on other than some storms being energized by the jet stream. Also, there is unfavorable wind shear.

Crown Weather (who has nailed Alberto and Beryl perfectly) expects a quiet period for the next 2-3 weeks.

Remember, history says that we have our 2nd named storm later in July. We're 2 months ahead of schedule and this is expected to be a near normal year with the number of named storms.
Hey Stormcatcher, this is from the NHC 5:00 AM advisor: "BASED ON RADAR FIXES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS THE INITIAL MOTION
ESTIMATE IS 280/07...A LITTLE FASTER THAN INDICATED IN THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY."

Faster movement = Beryl going further West. You usually see a change in direction when the speed slows down. The 5:00 AM NHC Projected path didn't have it going too much further West before stalling out & turning North.
2593. Bitmap7
Quoting wunderkidcayman:


purple in the SW carib


if it sticks around for about 48-96 hours (I expect shear to drop in the 15-20kt range at that time) we will see the caribbean system ramp up

just cloudy up my end no rain yet


also note show nothing at 850 yet but at 700 does show weak vort in the area and at 500 it has one big size one in the GOH

as I said just keep an eye on it it will start to get interesting within 48-72 hours


Its pouring by walkers road.
2594. K8eCane
WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH, NC (WECT) - Authorities in Wrightsville Beach are investigating a possible drowning.

Rescuers are on the scene, trying to locate the victim.

There is also a helicopter hovering above the water searching for the person, reportedly near beach access 4.

Very few other details are known at this time.

Stay with WECT.com for more on this developing story.

Copyright 2012 WECT. All rights reserved.

SAD but there will probably be more
BERYL expected to not make much of a turn till around mid Fl pan handle, NC might ought to prepare for some storms to hammer the area around Wed. or Thur.

GULF OF MEXICO...
DRY AIR ALOFT COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER MEXICO NEAR 20N103W WITH AXIS EXTENDING TO LOUISIANA...AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NE FL TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THIS DRY AIR ACCOMPANIED BY
SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING FROM A 1015 MB HIGH OVER NRN ALABAMA/MISSISSIPPI IS HELPING MAINTAIN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE BASIN EXCEPT FOR THE EXTREME NE CORNER. CYCLONIC FLOW AND A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH
TROPICAL STORM BERYL ARE NEAR THE NE CORNER OF THE GULF NEAR THE BIG BEND OF FLORIDA. BERYL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE W INTO FLORIDA BEFORE MAKING A TURN BACK TO THE NE. AS IT MOVES WWD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COULD EXTEND FARTHER INTO THE NE GULF OF MEXICO. CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE ERN GULF AS BERYL MOVES WWD WITH WEAK SURFACE RIDGING COVERING THE WRN GULF

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON MAY 28 2012

$$
WALTON
2596. Bitmap7
Caribbean disturbaqnce buoy, shows that overall pressure is on a steady decline starting from 05/26.

Quoting aspectre:
2549 aspectre: Can you imagine the havoc on here if TSBeryl crossed Florida to become another wrong-way hurricane
2552 Mclem1: The storm will turn around after the high passes over it's just a matter of when it turns. Don't think it will become a wrong way, itll either break up over land or keep moving northeast once it turns

I agree about where the HIGH probability of occurence sits.
Just remembering a hurricane that made one Florida landfall from the Gulf, reached the Atlantic then reversed to make an Atlantic landfall upon Florida, then crossed back to the Gulf to make a third landfall upon Florida (or Alabama) as a tropical storm.
Could be a mismemory -- juxtaposing a couple of storms -- wish I remembered the hurricane name.


Are you thinking of Major Hurricane Ivan, 2004?
Quoting Bitmap7:
Caribbean disturbaqnce buoy, shows that overall pressure is on a steady decline starting from 05/26.


yep I have noticed it as I said just keep an eye on it it seem to want to stay if it does long enough it will hit lower shear lower shear means development so one eye on beryl and the other eye on the W caribbean
Good Morning. Beryl appears to be slowly inching closer to some of the drought stricken areas in South Central GA. They need more rain than this but any rain is welcome at this point.
The area in the Caribbean is just divergence from the upper level trough near NE Florida through the Yucatan with no development expected.

After Beryl, no real development is expected in the Atlantic through the next two weeks. So sit back and relax, because it now looks like that if the Atlantic can support a STS becoming a borderline hurricane in the month of May, who knows what else we can expect.

I'm hoping though that Beryl's rains will finally trigger the real start of the Florida rainy season, at least in the Tampa area,with those strong daytime heating thunderstorms, because it seems to have started everywhere but that and my grass is parched from the last meager rainy seasons.
In S FL we got 3 to 5inches of rain last night from Beryl.
Beryl should be a TD at 11AM according to ATCF
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
Good Morning. Beryl appears to be slowly inching closer to some of the drought stricken areas in South Central GA. They need more rain than this but any rain is welcome at this point.
wanneland
2604. LargoFl
.....................OK wHERE IS THAT all day RAIN the local weather guys have been telling us was going to happen today? Hello..the suns out and a lil breezy, thats IT..lol..you can never trust predictions huh
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Beryl should be a TD at 11AM according to ATCF


Dr. Knabb says not yet. Might have stronger winds away from the center.


Plus it's actually going to tap the Gulf as it gets a bit farther west.
My College age Daughter was going to drive with another friend from Tally today to visit a Bud at UF in Gainesville. They are upset at me cause I pulled the plug on their trip ("You cant tell me what to do, I am 19"),,,,,,, :) But you should not be driving in these conditions, and especially a road trip, unless an emergency. Rain while driving on a highway is bad enough but an unexpected wind gust can slide you around a little bit too and "some" teenagers are not as cautious as they need to be when they drive.
2607. LargoFl
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
My College age Daughter was going to drive with another friend from Tally today to visit a Bud at UF in Gainesville. They are upset at me cause I pulled the plug on their trip ("You cant tell me what to do, I am 19"),,,,,,, :) But you should not be driving in these conditions, and especially a road trip, unless an emergency. Rain while driving on a highway is bad enough but an unexpected wind gust can slide you around a little bit too and "some" teenagers are not as cautious as they need to be when they drive.
good idea, you did the right thing
Quoting RTSplayer:


Dr. Knabb says not yet. Might have stronger winds away from the center.


Plus it's actually going to tap the Gulf as it gets a bit farther west.


ATCF is the NHC's word to the models, so Knabb's is wrong.
2609. LargoFl
FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
709 AM EDT MON MAY 28 2012

FLC019-031-107-109-281515-
/O.EXT.KJAX.FA.W.0006.000000T0000Z-120528T1515Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
CLAY FL-PUTNAM FL-ST. JOHNS FL-DUVAL FL-
709 AM EDT MON MAY 28 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSONVILLE HAS EXTENDED THE

* FLOOD WARNING FOR URBAN AREAS AND SMALL STREAMS IN...
EASTERN CLAY COUNTY IN NORTHEAST FLORIDA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...ORANGE PARK...LAKESIDE...
SOUTHEASTERN DUVAL COUNTY IN NORTHEAST FLORIDA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...UNF...MANDARIN...JACKSONVILLE
BEACH...DOWNTOWN JACKSONVILLE...ARLINGTON...
EXTREME NORTHERN PUTNAM COUNTY IN NORTHEAST FLORIDA...
NORTHERN ST. JOHNS COUNTY IN NORTHEAST FLORIDA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...PONTE VEDRA BEACH...PALM VALLEY...
GUANA RIVER STATE PARK...FRUIT COVE...

* UNTIL 1115 AM EDT

* RAIN BANDS FROM TROPICAL STORM BERYL CONTINUE TO SPIRAL NORTH
ACROSS THE WARNING AREA. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS MORNING...RESULTING IN AREAS
OF FLOODING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

HEAVY RAINFALL WILL FLOOD CREEKS...STREAMS...STORM RETENTION PONDS
AND LOW LYING AREAS. ADDITIONALLY...ROADS...UNDERPASSES...AND ACCESS
TO HOUSING MAY BE CLOSED DUE TO HIGH WATER. FIND ALTERNATE ROUTES.
DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROAD. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY. ROAD WASHOUTS MAY BE COVERED BY WATER. VEHICLES CAUGHT IN
RISING WATER SHOULD BE ABANDONED QUICKLY. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO OR TELEVISION
STATIONS...OR CABLE TELEVISION FOR ANY UPDATES. FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSONVILLE
WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX.

&&

LAT...LON 2996 8130 2990 8149 2983 8185 3042 8179
3042 8143

$$

ALLEN
Quoting LargoFl:
good idea, you did the right thing


Yup. She will give me a hard time today but I don't care..........Lol.
Quoting RTSplayer:


Dr. Knabb says not yet. Might have stronger winds away from the center.


Plus it's actually going to tap the Gulf as it gets a bit farther west.

NHC will use the ATCF intensity before Dr. Knabb's though

AL, 02, 2012052812, , BEST, 0, 304N, 825W, 30, 1000, TD,
2612. LargoFl
2613. LargoFl
Quoting weathermanwannabe:


Yup. She will give me a hard time today but I don't care..........Lol.
show her the radar...........
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
My College age Daughter was going to drive with another friend from Tally today to visit a Bud at UF in Gainesville. They are upset at me cause I pulled the plug on their trip ("You cant tell me what to do, I am 19"),,,,,,, :) But you should not be driving in these conditions, and especially a road trip, unless an emergency. Rain while driving on a highway is bad enough but an unexpected wind gust can slide you around a little bit too and "some" teenagers are not as cautious as they need to be when they drive.


Oh man...that's my favorite....Good for you!!!!
Quoting CybrTeddy:
The area in the Caribbean is just divergence from the upper level trough near NE Florida through the Yucatan with no development expected.

After Beryl, no real development is expected in the Atlantic through the next two weeks. So sit back and relax, because it now looks like that if the Atlantic can support a STS becoming a borderline hurricane in the month of May, who knows what else we can expect.

I'm hoping though that Beryl's rains will finally trigger the real start of the Florida rainy season, at least in the Tampa area,with those strong daytime heating thunderstorms, because it seems to have started everywhere but that and my grass is parched from the last meager rainy seasons.


Agree. I think we're going to be quiet for a while in the tropics.
show her the radar..


My Wife already did that; and, on her I-Phone weather app. Really proud of the Wife too; she's getting "hooked" on weather radar for the first time in her life......
Nice image.

Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Nice image.


That's a strong band over the water... It wouldn't surprise me if that prompts a tornado warning or two when it comes on shore.
A tree that was split in half during Beryl's fury last night in Fernandina Beach.
Wind-swept dunes following Beryl's fury in Fernandina Beach
Beryl birthed a spectacular rainbow as it made landfall here on the coast...
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

NHC will use the ATCF intensity before Dr. Knabb's though

AL, 02, 2012052812, , BEST, 0, 304N, 825W, 30, 1000, TD,


Yeah, but only until Friday.
Morning everyone.



Also, looking at the JAXpier camera, the seas are much calmer than they were last night.
good morning all hope it was not to bad of a storm nice pictures wish

off to work the b storm is soon too to be a depression


Geez... looks like it's going to rain here again tomorrow....

And looks like the Caymans are in for another soaking as well.
Did anyone else notice what the maximum off-shore rainfall total is by radar estimate? 39.5 inches.

Yeah, not flooding anything obviously, unless there's a boat out there, but still, that's incredible.
2627. OneDay
Great pics, wishcaster. Thanks for sharing.
Quoting LargoFl:
.....................OK wHERE IS THAT all day RAIN the local weather guys have been telling us was going to happen today? Hello..the suns out and a lil breezy, thats IT..lol..you can never trust predictions huh
,wait until around noon,it will rain today/tonight,expect .25-.50 inches wudespread,it'll happen!



Alright, moisture is high over the region, and the forecast is calling for numerous thunderstorms, and with CAPE like this:



How are there NOT heavy rain bands developing in the gulf yet??? Gosh man, I hope this doesn't end being a dud...
Quoting LargoFl:
.....................OK wHERE IS THAT all day RAIN the local weather guys have been telling us was going to happen today? Hello..the suns out and a lil breezy, thats IT..lol..you can never trust predictions huh
We've got it :-)
wishcaster -- nice pictures
The National Weather Service in Jacksonville has issued a

* Flash Flood Warning for...
eastern Duval County in northeast Florida

* until noon EDT

* at 9 am... flash flooding is occurring from hogans creek... with
significant flooding of Orange street... Hubbard street... Market
street... as well as Confederate Park. Another band of heavy rain
will cross the area during the next 1 to 3 hours... with flooding
of additional creeks and streams likely.

* Other locations in the warning include but are not limited to
Riverside... San Marco... unf... downtown Jacksonville... Arlington...
San Pablo... Fort Caroline... Mayport... Oceanway... Little Talbot
Island and Talbot Island.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

Additional rainfall amounts of up to 2 inches is possible in the
warned area.

Do not drive your vehicle into areas where the water covers the
roadway. The water depth may be too great to allow your car to cross
safely. Move to higher ground.

Report flooding to the nearest law enforcement agency or your County
emergency management... or you can also call the National Weather
Service in Jacksonville directly at 800-499-1594 to report flooding.


Lat... Lon 3011 8148 3010 8149 3010 8154 3012 8154
3013 8160 3012 8168 3014 8169 3019 8168
3019 8170 3054 8171 3052 8144 3049 8141
3041 8139
2633. yqt1001
A front stalled over us last night and has dumped tons of rain. I live in what could be called a mountainous region and we still got awful flooding everywhere.

Rain totals for the past few days total to 7 inches or so.
hello zoo how are ya
Has anyone else noticed mid and upper level steering to the West of Beryl is currently suggesting a SSW turn?

Maybe that graphic is old or something, but that little high over there seems to be potent.

At one time, the NAM had taken Beryl off shore down into the Gulf, to about 28N, and the GFS and CMC had it getting all the way to the coast near Tallahassee.


But the latest models all say a stall and then turns north, so I guess it sees something I don't see.

The storm was still drifting slightly S of West earlier this morning.
Quoting RTSplayer:
Has anyone else noticed mid and upper level steering to the West of Beryl is currently suggesting a SSW turn?

Maybe that graphic is old or something, but that little high over there seems to be potent.

At one time, the NAM had taken Beryl off shore down into the Gulf, to about 28N, and the GFS and CMC had it getting all the way to the coast near Tallahassee.


But the latest models all say a stall and then turns north, so I guess it sees something I don't see.

The storm was still drifting slightly S of West earlier this morning.


Looks like it's starting to drift northward.
Quoting zoomiami:
wishcaster -- nice pictures
Hey, zoo! I saw a post by u last night, but not until after u had gone... lol

How's the weather?
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:


Looks like it's starting to drift northward.


I know, it's just hard to say if it's too ragged to tell, or if it's a real change yet.


Use Moody Airforce base, on Composite and see how it looks.

Unfortunately, Tallahassee is down right now, which might have been the best radar to see it on.
Quoting BahaHurican:


Geez... looks like it's going to rain here again tomorrow....

looks like another week of rain for us
Quoting Bitmap7:


Its pouring by walkers road.
In East End too.
2642. hydrus
Trough...Big..
Quoting yqt1001:
A front stalled over us last night and has dumped tons of rain. I live in what could be called a mountainous region and we still got awful flooding everywhere.

Rain totals for the past few days total to 7 inches or so.

where are you located?
Quoting RTSplayer:


I know, it's just hard to say if it's too ragged to tell, or if it's a real change yet.


Use Moody Airforce base, on Composite and see how it looks.

Unfortunately, Tallahassee is down right now, which might have been the best radar to see it on.

It has definitely slowed down, though.
Even though I was wrong and Beryl did go to Jacksonville, (people here do know their weather) I am impressed at how the storm is holding together over FL Monday morning. Everyone can debate if Beryl was tropical and/or a hurricane, I lean to hybrid critter. I think any later-in-the-year storm which relied on fully tropical means would have crunched into land and gone 'poof.'

Yesterday's rain here was 0.33". Savannah's about to get this eastern band of rain this morning so I'm finally getting some more rain. But, sadly I don't think the fighter jets will venture out in this as the visibilities tank, so no fly-bys of the parades and the like...
2646. LargoFl
Quoting yqt1001:
A front stalled over us last night and has dumped tons of rain. I live in what could be called a mountainous region and we still got awful flooding everywhere.

Rain totals for the past few days total to 7 inches or so.
GEE Send some of that rain my way ..stay safe and dont drive thru standing water ok
2647. LargoFl
Quoting Jedkins01:



Alright, moisture is high over the region, and the forecast is calling for numerous thunderstorms, and with CAPE like this:



How are there NOT heavy rain bands developing in the gulf yet??? Gosh man, I hope this doesn't end being a dud...
sure seems like a dud, everyone cancelled plans because they said it would rain all day long, now look, suns out and its fine here..grrr
2648. hydrus
NSSL WRF 4 km grid initialized 00 UTC May 28 2012
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

looks like another week of rain for us
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
In East End too.
Morning to all the Caymans ppl-dem...

I was hoping for a sunnier week here - we have today AND Friday off as public holidays - but it seems that will not be so....

However, it looks like the sun will shine for a little longer here, so I'm going out to take advantage of it... lol

Hope u don't get too much more flooding guys... I know how you feel.
Check out my New Weather Blog, Advice is welcome.
Link
2651. LargoFl
2652. LargoFl
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
939 AM EDT MON MAY 28 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSONVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
EASTERN DUVAL COUNTY IN NORTHEAST FLORIDA
EASTERN NASSAU COUNTY IN NORTHEAST FLORIDA

* UNTIL 1030 AM EDT

* AT 938 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE
TRACKING A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO
JUST NORTH OF FRUIT COVE...MOVING NORTH AT 30 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
UNF...SAN PABLO...FORT CAROLINE...MAYPORT...LITTLE TALBOT ISLAND
AND TALBOT ISLAND.

OTHER THUNDERSTORMS IN EASTERN DUVAL COUNTY SHOW SIGNS OF ROTATION
AND COULD PRODUCE FUNNEL CLOUDS OR BRIEF TORNADOES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN INTERIOR
HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO COVER
YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

REPORT SEVERE WEATHER OR DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY
OR YOUR COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

&&

LAT...LON 3011 8150 3013 8163 3057 8153 3052 8143
3051 8144 3049 8141 3041 8140 3040 8139
TIME...MOT...LOC 1338Z 200DEG 28KT 3015 8155

$$

WOLF
Check out my New Weather Blog, Advice is welcome.
http://035d83b.netsolhost.com/WordPress
Sorry this should work.
Quoting LargoFl:
sure seems like a dud, everyone cancelled plans because they said it would rain all day long, now look, suns out and its fine here..grrr



Yeah and what's worse, there's no real explanation why there is NOT a lot of convection developing in the gulf this morning. Which drives me nuts...

Everything supports a lot of rainfall developing in the gulf, why is it not there yet? God only knows...
An thoughts if this thing will have it's act together on Wednesday when it's expected to skirt the OBX coast...
2658. hydrus
Quoting susieq110:
Check out my New Weather Blog, Advice is welcome.
http://035d83b.netsolhost.com/WordPress
Sorry this should work.
I was just there. Well formatted with good info. I will visit again. A little upwelling is noticeable on the SST chart.
2659. xcool
any1 see that beryl has a 16% chance of being a hurricane in 120 hrs
2549 aspectre: Can you imagine the havoc on here if TSBeryl crossed Florida to become another wrong-way hurricane [HurricaneLenny track map]
2552 Mclem1: The storm will turn around after the high passes over. It's just a matter of when it turns. Don't think it will become a wrong way, It'll either break up over land or keep moving northeast once it turns.
2557 aspectre: I agree about where the HIGH probability of occurence sits. Just remembering a hurricane that made one Florida landfall from the Gulf, reached the Atlantic then reversed to make an Atlantic landfall upon Florida, then crossed back to the Gulf to make a third landfall upon Florida (or Alabama) as a tropical storm.
Could be a mismemory -- juxtaposing a couple of storms -- wish I remembered the hurricane name.
2558 Mclem1: Certainly would be amazing! I suppose we never really know until all is said and done!
2597 EcoLogic: Are you thinking of Major Hurricane Ivan, 2004?

Mismemory. TropicalStormFay was never a hurricane, and
made 4 landfalls upon Florida's mainland
Quoting hydrus:
I was just there. Well formatted with good info. I will visit again. A little upwelling is noticeable on the SST chart.
Thanks!!
2663. yqt1001
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
any1 see that beryl has a 16% chance of being a hurricane in 120 hrs


At that point it's an extratropical low.
2664. hydrus
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
any1 see that beryl has a 16% chance of being a hurricane in 120 hrs
It is my opinion the Beryl will not become a hurricane. I have been wrong before however, and like my crow deep fried with seasoned flower..:)
Low Pressure area will develop in the BOC next week according to HPC charts.


Drove the turnpike from Orlando to I-10, then I-10 west at Lakeland Florida yesterday ahead of the storm.
Passed through Lakeland around 4:30 pm

- In and out of heavy winds and hard rain showers.
- The sky to the North through East was predominantly drak grey through black.
- Ceilings veriable from 200-300 feet to unlimited on the West, Northwest

Moderate to Heavy winds remained from the North along I-10 to Tallahassee. Beyond skies cleared and winds reduced.

NOt a good driving day for younglings

Quoting weatherh98:


Thanks for the back up nc


NC. Will this storm have any chance to strengthen before skirting our coast?
2668. hydrus
GOES Imager Cloud Top Pressure
May 28, 2012 - 12:45 UTC
Quoting aspectre:
2549 aspectre: Can you imagine the havoc on here if TSBeryl crossed Florida to become another wrong-way hurricane [HurricaneLenny track map]
2552 Mclem1: The storm will turn around after the high passes over. It's just a matter of when it turns. Don't think it will become a wrong way, It'll either break up over land or keep moving northeast once it turns.
2557 aspectre: I agree about where the HIGH probability of occurence sits. Just remembering a hurricane that made one Florida landfall from the Gulf, reached the Atlantic then reversed to make an Atlantic landfall upon Florida, then crossed back to the Gulf to make a third landfall upon Florida (or Alabama) as a tropical storm.
Could be a mismemory -- juxtaposing a couple of storms -- wish I remembered the hurricane name.
2558 Mclem1: Certainly would be amazing! I suppose we never really know until all is said and done!
2597 EcoLogic: Are you thinking of Major Hurricane Ivan, 2004?

Mismemory. TropicalStormFay was never a hurricane & made 4 landfalls upon Florida's mainland.


And it dropped a tree limb on my car that cracked the windshield.
Quoting yqt1001:


At that point it's an extratropical low.


Yeah, I think those percentages are just an indication of maximum winds, rather than actual classification as a hurricane.
What were the Highest sustained winds last night?
2674. gator23
Where can I find the radar that shows beryl from landfall to now
2676. hydrus
When Beryl exits, a new surge of moisture moves into Florida from the Caribbean. It appears that the pattern will favor the eastern side with the heavier rainfall amounts..24 hour.. 48 hours..72 hours..84..
Quoting BrickellBreeze:
What were the Highest sustained winds last night?


Check Historical data

Link
Quoting gator23:
Where can I find the radar that shows beryl from landfall to now


Link

Up to midnight last night
Scratch that didn't work like I wanted it to...
2681. hydrus
84 hour..3-Hr Precip, Cloud, and Moisture Forecasts
North America 00 UTC cras45naP03
Quoting sunlinepr:


Check Historical data

Link


Thanks
Quoting gator23:
Where can I find the radar that shows beryl from landfall to now



12 hr KJAX Loop
So far, activity is beginning to develop inland but not over the gulf, let me guess, another rain even for the east side of the state while the west side of the state stays in a drought... -_-

This doesn't even make sense, I'm down right mad.
Hi Baha, Keeper

Weather is beautiful here --- very hot. Needed it to dry out the soggy land a little. I do love the green grass though.

How about in the Bahamas?
Quoting Jedkins01:
So far, activity is beginning to develop inland but not over the gulf, let me guess, another rain even for the east side of the state while the west side of the state stays in a drought... -_-

This doesn't even make sense, I'm down right mad.


Give it some time for daytime heating to kick in it should be more numerous then. Maybe not exactly what everyone was hoping for but should enhance the flow, but undoubtedly inland areas are gonna receive the most rain today..
2689. ncstorm
I dont understand how our local news is saying whats "left" of beryl will pass over us but the euro clearly has this as a tropical storm over NC?

Quoting zoomiami:
Hi Baha, Keeper

Weather is beautiful here --- very hot. Needed it to dry out the soggy land a little. I do love the green grass though.

How about in the Bahamas?
We've had more sun in the last three days [Saturday, yesterday, and today] than we had for the previous 3 weeks... it has been one soggy May here. Talk about starting the rainy season early....

Not that I'm complaining. I agree it's great to have green grass and not have to water my cilantro and oregano I just planted...
2691. 10Speed
Quoting hydrus:
When Beryl exits, a new surge of moisture moves into Florida from the Caribbean. It appears that the pattern will favor the eastern side with the heavier rainfall amounts..


Figures.
2692. hydrus
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
any1 see that beryl has a 16% chance of being a hurricane in 120 hrs
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0353 AM CDT MON MAY 28 2012

VALID 311200Z - 051200Z

...DISCUSSION...
AMID A PERSISTENT SPLIT UPPER FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE
CONUS/CANADA...AND WITH AMPLIFICATION DURING THE DAY 3
PERIOD...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS GENERALLY SUGGESTIVE OF AN
EASTWARD-SHIFTING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS ON
DAYS 4-5 THURSDAY/FRIDAY. THAT SAID...CONSIDERABLE VARIABILITY
EXISTS AMONGST 00Z-BASED ECMWF/UKMET/GEFS GUIDANCE REGARDING THE
SPECIFIC DETAILS OF AMPLIFICATION/TIMING.

WHILE THIS GUIDANCE VARIABILITY PRECLUDES SPECIFIC DELINEATIONS OF
30 PERCENT CALIBER SEVERE RISK AREAS...SEVERE TSTMS /POTENTIALLY
WIDESPREAD/ CAN NONETHELESS BE EXPECTED. FOR DAY
4/THURSDAY...SOMEWHAT PENDING MESOSCALE DETAILS FROM THE PRIOR
DAY...SEVERE TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS AREAS SUCH AS THE
OZARKS/ARKLATEX TO THE LOWER/MIDDLE MS RIVER VALLEY...AND PERHAPS
EVEN PORTIONS OF THE TN/OH RIVER VALLEYS THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY
FRIDAY. FOR DAY 5/FRIDAY...SEVERE TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SOMEWHERE
WITHIN A GENERAL CORRIDOR FROM THE TN VALLEY/SOUTHEAST STATES TO THE
APPALACHIANS/CAROLINAS AND PERHAPS MID-ATLANTIC STATES /ESPECIALLY
PER THE FASTER 00Z ECMWF SOLUTION/. THEREAFTER...EARLY INDICATIONS
ARE THAT SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL COULD INCREASE LATE THIS
WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

..GUYER.. 05/28/2012
Quoting charlottefl:


Give it some time for daytime heating to kick in it should be more numerous then. Maybe not exactly what everyone was hoping for but should enhance the flow, but undoubtedly inland areas are gonna receive the most rain today..



No day time heating will increase instability over land and decreases it over water. It's part of the diurnal cycle, if there wasn't plenty of showers/thunderstorms over the gulf during the early morning then its not likely there will be much during the day...


My point is the chances of significant gulf convection does not improve with daytime heating. However, the east side of the state will of course get plenty of rain again.
2694. hydrus
Quoting 10Speed:


Figures.
It is a bummer, the west side needs rain. They will get some tho. If the moisture surge takes a more n.w track, the west coast may get a lot of rain...Wait and see.
Beryl appears to be cruising west on I-10 at the moment....But starting to lift to the North a little bit.
Currently eating the first mango of the season... mmmmm.....
Good morning everybody.

Beryl should be downgraded to a tropical depression in a little bit, however, it likely won't dissipate over land. As a trough approaches from the west tonight and tomorrow, the cyclone will turn northward and then race northeastward. The combination of favorable thermodynamics, an unseasonably strong trough, and TD Beryl should make for a significant rain event across North Carolina and South Carolina. Some areas could pick up over 6". After reemerging off the East Coast, Beryl could briefly regain tropical storm status before it begins extratropical transition and moves out to sea.

After that, the Atlantic is quiet...and we better enjoy that quiet. If we are able to get two named storms in the same location, including one that nearly became a hurricane in MAY, then we need to prepare ourselves for what we could be seeing in the actual season.

The 2012 Atlantic Hurricane Season starts Friday, June 1, 2012.

2698. emcf30
Quoting BrickellBreeze:
What were the Highest sustained winds last night?


Here are a few official recording from the NWS that were entered into the Daily Climate Reports for yesterday. Nothing impressive at these sites
Jax. Int.
WIND (MPH)
HIGHEST WIND SPEED 39 HIGHEST WIND DIRECTION N (20)
HIGHEST GUST SPEED 56 HIGHEST GUST DIRECTION NE (30)
AVERAGE WIND SPEED 16.3
ST SIMONS ISLAND
WIND (MPH)
HIGHEST WIND SPEED 36 HIGHEST WIND DIRECTION E (80)
HIGHEST GUST SPEED 48 HIGHEST GUST DIRECTION E (70)
AVERAGE WIND SPEED 19.4
WIND (MPH)

ALMA
HIGHEST WIND SPEED 16 HIGHEST WIND DIRECTION N (360)
HIGHEST GUST SPEED 26 HIGHEST GUST DIRECTION N (360)
AVERAGE WIND SPEED 6.9
What boggles my mind about weather is even when the weather pattern changes sometimes a persistent stubborn pattern can still exist within that pattern...

What do I mean by that, well for several weeks now every increase in rainfall has brought plenty of rainfall to the east side of the state and lacked for the western side, even if the rain event normally would favor the west side of the state. I just don't get why convection refuses to develop in the gulf with rainfall systems the past several weeks. Even now with a tropical system, thunderstorms were developing over land at night yet not over the gulf. It makes absolutely no sense and is inconsistent with what I've seen over the years living here.

It feels sometimes the weather gets a mind of its own and wants to spite you sometimes, lol...
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
Beryl appears to be cruising west on I-10 at the moment....


WNW
Quoting Jedkins01:



Yeah and what's worse, there's no real explanation why there is NOT a lot of convection developing in the gulf this morning. Which drives me nuts...

Everything supports a lot of rainfall developing in the gulf, why is it not there yet? God only knows...

Once the atmosphere destabilizes this afternoon i think there will be more storms for the west coast of Florida.
Quoting RTSplayer:
I'm probably get delete and ban for this, but I can't help it.

A banner ad accidentally led me to this.




God is a perfectionist.
Yeah, that is a great swimsuit...

I suggest u take it down, now... u may skinge by if you do...
Quoting BrickellBreeze:


WNW


Yup....I corrected the comment below. Thanks; Do you actually live near Brickell Ave down in Miami? I don't live there anymore but one of the best spotted trout holes I have ever fished is down there about 50 yards off of Bayview Dr. and 14th in Biscayne Bay.
Quoting westFLtropics:


That's not how things typically work with a westerly flow though, a westerly flow normally means the best chance shifts eastward during the day and the air stabilizes on the west side of the state during the day.


My point is in this pattern most likely if it was going to be a what day it would have started wet, that is typically how the west flow works.
Quoting RescueWX:
Drove the turnpike from Orlando to I-10, then I-10 west at Lakeland Florida yesterday ahead of the storm.
Passed through Lakeland around 4:30 pm

- In and out of heavy winds and hard rain showers.
- The sky to the North through East was predominantly drak grey through black.
- Ceilings veriable from 200-300 feet to unlimited on the West, Northwest

Moderate to Heavy winds remained from the North along I-10 to Tallahassee. Beyond skies cleared and winds reduced.

NOt a good driving day for younglings



Interesting, as the Turnpike does not go all the way to I-10 and Lakeland Florida is off of I-4 west of Orlando
Quoting Jedkins01:


That's not how things typically work with a westerly flow though, a westerly flow normally means the best chance shifts eastward during the day and the air stabilizes on the west side of the state during the day.


My point is in this pattern most likely if it was going to be a what day it would have started wet, that is typically how the west flow works.


Yea, I think we've missed our chance for anything significant. I wouldn't be surprised if we see a few showers develop but not much more than that.
2708. hydrus
Ingredients for a significant severe weather outbreak in the works..
Quoting Jedkins01:


That's not how things typically work with a westerly flow though, a westerly flow normally means the best chance shifts eastward during the day and the air stabilizes on the west side of the state during the day.


My point is in this pattern most likely if it was going to be a what day it would have started wet, that is typically how the west flow works.


We got hit very hard with the southern eyewall last night. We are now just getting showers and wind but I expect instability to pick up and light up scattered storms with isolated tornadoes.
Quoting weathermanwannabe:


Yup....I corrected the comment below. Thanks; Do you actually live near Brickell Ave down in Miami? I don't live there anymore but one of the best spotted trout holes I have ever fished is down there about 50 yards off of Bayview Dr. and 14th in Biscayne Bay.


I'm a Incoming Freshmen at Florida International University (Doral,FL), that is where the National Hurricane Center is based and where the "wall of wind" is based. I'm currently decideding between Meteorology and Civil Engineering. But I Visit Downtown Miami All the time, and it is my favorite city.

In the future i may want to Chase Hurricanes for fun, I just bought my first weather station, so im on the right track.

I'm just on here to help out, give information, and learn.

- BrickellBreeze
Good mourning, Beryl should start to recurve by tonight.
By the way North Carolina needs to watch this it could reintensify to a moderate tropical storm.
Quoting reedzone:


We got hit very hard with the southern eyewall last night. We are now just getting showers and wind but I expect instability to pick up and light up scattered storms with isolated tornadoes.


You Said you were getting 50mph winds with 60mph gusts last night?

How did you get home? lol
2713. hydrus
Giovanna and Funso were two powerful cyclones that wreaked havoc on Madagascar this year..On 24 January 2012 NASA renamed the recently-launched NPP satellite (formerly known as the NPOES Preparatory Project) the Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership (or Suomi NPP) in honor of Dr. Verner Suomi, recognized as “the father of satellite meteorology”.
Thanks and Good for You. I got my BA from FIU and yes, NHC is just over to the West of the School. You folks in South Florida are going to have to keep a real close eye on the tropics this year. My advice? Make sure you stock supplies early this year just in case; I do not miss standing in line in a City of about 1 million desperate folks trying to buy supplies at the last minute at Home Depot.
Quoting RTSplayer:
*ahem*.

Weather is nice.

Beneficial rains in Georgia.

God is good.
Ah, yes.... lol....

Made me laugh so hard I forgot what I was going to type...

Quoting wishcasterfromfsu:
Beryl birthed a spectacular rainbow as it made landfall here on the coast...


Pretty cool.. people don't really associate nearly-hurricanes with rainbows. Is that from this morning, or yesterday afternoon.
...BERYL SOAKING PORTIONS OF NORTH FLORIDA AND SOUTH GEORGIA...MORE RAIN TO COME...
11:00 AM EDT Mon May 28
Location: 30.5°N 82.7°W
Max sustained: 35 mph
Moving: WNW at 6 mph
Min pressure: 1000 mb
Lots of rain in Gainesville throughout the night.

Expected to get a lot more today and tonight.

TD Beryl.
Quoting BrickellBreeze:


You Said you were getting 50mph winds with 60mph gusts last night?

How did you get home? lol


It happened after I got home
Quoting reedzone:


We got hit very hard with the southern eyewall last night. We are now just getting showers and wind but I expect instability to pick up and light up scattered storms with isolated tornadoes.


Yeah looks like you guys picked up a few inches of rain and some damaging winds last night, I bet it was pretty exciting!


As for us, I was really putting a lot of hope on my forecast of rain for the west side of the state. Sorry guys, but everything came together like a thought but rain bands still are not developing in the eastern gulf like they should be. I just don't get it, everything is there that normally should and many times before has sparked plenty of activity in the gulf, but isn't now...


With the heating your side of the sate should continue to see more bands of showers and thunderstorms.

Quoting weathermanwannabe:
Thanks and Good for You. I got my BA from FIU and yes, NHC is just over to the West of the School. You folks in South Florida are going to have to keep a real close eye on the tropics this year. My advice? Make sure you stock supplies early this year just in case; I do not miss standing in line in a City of about 1 million desperate folks trying to buy supplies at the last minute at Home Depot.


This Pattern looks like 2004, But in the past years, Many people where forecasting a year for landfalls for Florida, but it never verified, so i'm just going to stock up, but i will set my expectations low.

WW, your in Tallahassee right? Seems like you might get some rain from this.
Quoting FLGatorCaneNut:


Interesting, as the Turnpike does not go all the way to I-10 and Lakeland Florida is off of I-4 west of Orlando
Prolly meant Lake City instead of Lakeland.... and If u r not from the N/C part of FL u will likely forget that the Turnpike merges w/ I-75.... ask me how I know.... lol

Quoting reedzone:


It happened after I got home


What were the highest winds recorded at your location? Seems like the high wind reports were sporadic at best.
Quoting BrickellBreeze:


This Pattern looks like 2004, But in the past years, Many people where forecasting a year for landfalls for Florida, but it never verified, so i'm just going to stock up, but i will set my expectations low.

WW, your in Tallahassee right? Seems like you might get some rain from this.


We have been praying for rain in Tally but no luck yet. Visible Satt loops are deceiving looking from the top down. We had some nice dark low level circulation for the past two hours and it was looking good for some rain. Now, the Sun is peekng through a bit and only a few minor drizzles so far. Hopefully we will get some more substantial rain later today.
Wow its been an active start to the hurricane season. This year could be Historic.
Even Noaa doesn't have a handle on the season with a 9-15 storms predicted this year.
Quoting weathermanwannabe:


We have been praying for rain in Tally but no luck yet. Visible Satt loops are deceiving looking from the top down. We had some nice dark low level circulation for the past two hours and it was looking good for some rain. Now, the Sun is peekng through a bit and only a few minor drizzles so far. Hopefully we will get some more substantial rain later today.


Maybe Afternoon thunderstorms will fire up and give you guys some relief. Hopefully.
Quoting reedzone:


It happened after I got home
So you got to drive home in the "eye".... glad to hear u didn't have too many problems.
9-15 named storms?

That seems like a huge range... is that what they always had?
significant severe weather outbreak in the northeast today!!!!
Still got some 20-25 kt winds offshore, but overall, Beryl is not a significant concern for winds anymore.



Quoting BahaHurican:
9-15 named storms?

That seems like a huge range... is that what they always had?

Yeah. They should really learn to narrow their numbers down...
significant severe weather outbreak in the northeast today!!!
Quoting BahaHurican:
So you got to drive home in the "eye".... glad to hear u didn't have too many problems.


Actually I was driving home in at least 40 mph. winds with showers, the eye wall came in an hour later... That's when things got ugly, heard banging noises and stuff.
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0936
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1000 AM CDT MON MAY 28 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...SE GA...FAR NE FL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 281500Z - 281630Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A MARGINAL TORNADO THREAT WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS FAR NE FL AND SERN GA. THE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN TOO ISOLATED TO WARRANT WW ISSUANCE.

DISCUSSION...THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER PLACES TROPICAL
DEPRESSION BERYL ABOUT 60 STATUTE MILES WEST OF JACKSONVILLE FL.
MESOANALYSIS DATA CURRENTLY SHOWS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND
2.10 INCHES EXTENDING NEWD FROM BERYL'S CENTER ACROSS NE FL AND SE
GA WHERE 0-1 KM SHEAR VALUES ARE ESTIMATED FROM 20 TO 30 KT. THIS
ENVIRONMENT ALONG WITH FURTHER DESTABILIZATION LATE THIS MORNING
INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD ALLOW FOR A FEW DISCRETE UPDRAFTS
TO EXHIBIT ROTATION. AS BERYL MOVES SLOWLY WWD...THE THREAT MAY
EXTEND FURTHER INLAND ESPECIALLY IF BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER CAN
RESULT IN SFC HEATING IN AREAS TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF
JACKSONVILLE. STORMS THAT ROTATE MAY HAVE A MARGINAL TORNADO THREAT
IF GREATER INSTABILITY CAN DEVELOP IN THE NERN QUADRANT OF BERYL
THIS AFTERNOON.

..BROYLES.. 05/28/2012



Seriously, the CAPE is nearly 5000 just to the west of Tampa Bay, moisture is very high and there is a tropical storm just to the north, but no thunderstorms are developing in the gulf? How is this possible...



We must have hope that at some point, whatever is limiting convective development breaks, with CAPE at 4000 to 5000 some powerful rain bands have got to get going eventually. There is a massive amount of low level moisture for convection to feed off of. Let's just hope our need for rain doesn't come in the form of damaging thunderstorms. Any time you have that much CAPE you have to be careful for severe weather, especially given that strong winds aloft are present because of the circulation of Beryl.
2735. Patrap
Accuweather is to funny.while Beryl and Alberto has already formed their continuing to shove their forecast down our throat about what they think of this hurricane season."Accuweather is still forecasting 12 named storms"
Beryl still has a nice shape:

I know this is a bit off topic, but can someone help me with the geography in this?

Gov. Rick Scott, First Lady Ann in Bahamas to watch Attorney General Pam Bondi tie the knot
by Dara Kam | May 26th, 2012
Just back from a trade mission to Spain, Florida Gov. Rick Scott is in the Bahamas today for Attorney General Pam Bondi%u2018s hush-hush wedding to her long-time beau, Tampa ophthalmologist Greg Henderson.

Scott and his wife, First Lady Ann Scott, are among the guests at Bondi%u2019s Ritz Carlton Grand Cayman affair. Bondi, 45, Florida%u2019s first female attorney general, is divorced.

While it was no secret that Bondi and Henderson, who is 15 years her senior and has four grown children, intended to marry this spring, the attorney general kept details about the wedding mum. Bondi%u2019s press secretary did not respond to questions about it Saturday.

But Sen. Paula Dockery, R-Lakeland, spilled the beans on her Facebook page Friday, posting a picture of Bondi captioned %u201CThe blushing bride serving punch to her friends on Cayman Air.%u201D In a previous post, Dockery said: %u201CThe plane is filled with her wedding party.%u201D

Bondi, a GOP darling who never ran for office before becoming attorney general in 2011, was a frequent contributor to FoxNews prior to her election and remains a regular guest giving updates about Florida%u2019s lawsuit against President Obama%u2019s administration over the health care law. The Supreme Court is expected to issue a ruling in the case in August.

2739. K8eCane
Quoting washingtonian115:
Accuweather is to funny.while Beryl and Alberto has already formed their continuing to shove their forecast down our throat about what they think of this hurricane season."Accuweather is still forecasting 12 named storms"

Actually Joe Bastard one of their chief meteorologists is pretty good
Quoting BrickellBreeze:


This Pattern looks like 2004, But in the past years, Many people where forecasting a year for landfalls for Florida, but it never verified, so i'm just going to stock up, but i will set my expectations low.

WW, your in Tallahassee right? Seems like you might get some rain from this.


Its still too early to say that. However with that High pressure in the Atlantic some storms from Cape Verde could find themselves Hitting the Gulf coast or the Eastern seaboard.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Beryl still has a nice shape:

I certainly expect for enough of Beryl to survive and restrengthen off the Carolina coast tomorrow.
Quoting Patrap:


Looks like it might be trying to head north
Quoting washingtonian115:
Accuweather is to funny.while Beryl and Alberto has already formed their continuing to shove their forecast down our throat about what they think of this hurricane season."Accuweather is still forecasting 12 named storms"


My Forecast for this season is:
15 Named Storms
7 Hurricanes
3 Major Hurricanes
2744. Patrap
Quoting K8eCane:

Actually Joe Bastard one of their chief meteorologists is pretty good


He isnt with accu anymore, he is the Chief Ding dong at weatherbell.com now.
Quoting washingtonian115:
Accuweather is to funny.while Beryl and Alberto has already formed their continuing to shove their forecast down our throat about what they think of this hurricane season."Accuweather is still forecasting 12 named storms"
2 storms down, 10 more to go, unless we have a strong EL Nino I don't see that happening. I'm more in the camp of 15 named storms, which is on the higher end of NOAA's prediction.

This map shows a weak EL Nino:

2746. hydrus
Quoting BahaHurican:
9-15 named storms?

That seems like a huge range... is that what they always had?
Lol..It really is...Presslord said it best, " I predict that a hurricane will make landfall somewhere along the coast". Gives them some breathing room, and they deserve it after whats happened over the past 17 years...I am going with 14 named storms, 8 hurricanes, 3 major hurricanes. I do believe a few landfalls in the U.S. and the Antilles region are likely. Water temps are coming up, El-Nino is not arriving fast enough to have an effect on the QBO, and lower pressures may linger over the Caribbean for quite some time.
Quoting K8eCane:

Actually Joe Bastard one of their chief meteorologists is pretty good

he's not associated with them anymore.

post 2743,and 2745 I agree.I just don't see El nino developing that fast and really having a effect on the upcoming hurricane season.I'm with the higher range on this of 15 name storms.
Quoting Patrap:


He isnt with accu anymore, he is the Chief Ding dong at weatherbell.com now.


Never heard of weatherbell.com he should of stay with Accu
Quoting Patrap:


He isnt with accu anymore, he is the Chief Ding dong at weatherbell.com now.


Lol, He's now with inaccurweather.com
Quoting BahaHurican:
I know this is a bit off topic, but can someone help me with the geography in this?

Gov. Rick Scott, First Lady Ann in Bahamas to watch Attorney General Pam Bondi tie the knot
by Dara Kam | May 26th, 2012
Just back from a trade mission to Spain, Florida Gov. Rick Scott is in the Bahamas today for Attorney General Pam Bondi%u2018s hush-hush wedding to her long-time beau, Tampa ophthalmologist Greg Henderson.

Scott and his wife, First Lady Ann Scott, are among the guests at Bondi%u2019s Ritz Carlton Grand Cayman affair...t.



Perhaps while you slept, the Cayman Islands annexed the Bahamas... ?? heh heh : )
2751. help4u
Bastardi nailed first two systems and predicted early season storms over a month ago.March he said alot of in close systems this year would be norm.
Quoting help4u:
Bastardi nailed first two systems and predicted early season storms over a month ago.March he said alot of in close systems this year would be norm.

So did a lot of other people.
2753. K8eCane
Quoting washingtonian115:

he's not associated with them anymore.


I didnt realize that. I thought he owned it or something. I know he nailed Katrinas location while it was still near Cape Verde. But then again, so did stormtop
Quoting washingtonian115:

he's not associated with them anymore.

post 2743,and 2745 I agree.I just don't see El nino developing that fast and really having a effect on the upcoming hurricane season.I'm with the higher range on this of 15 name storms.


K8eCane Katrina was never near the cape verde islands when she formed XD.She formed near the Bahamas.
Quoting help4u:
Bastardi nailed first two systems and predicted early season storms over a month ago.March he said alot of in close systems this year would be norm.

He wasn't the only one...in fact, many people were saying it before he did.
Quoting BahaHurican:
9-15 named storms?

That seems like a huge range... is that what they always had?


Yea, and I'm playing golf this afternoon (weather permitting) and I expect to shoot somewhere between 72-100.
Quoting BahaHurican:
9-15 named storms?

That seems like a huge range... is that what they always had?

12 is average TC's for the year,right in the middle of their spread,last years range was even larger,i expect a season simular to 2004 patternwise
Quoting Hurricanes305:


Never heard of weatherbell.com he should of stay with Accu


The best place for Joe Bastardi is the Weather Channel to have a dynamic duo of Joe and Brian Norcross once Rick Nabb leaves for the NHC.
Quoting GTcooliebai:
2 storms down, 10 more to go, unless we have a strong EL Nino I don't see that happening. I'm more in the camp of 15 named storms, which is on the higher end of NOAA's prediction.

This map shows a weak EL Nino:



Going to be interesting to see what happens going into next year. Lots of similarities to 2007-2009 here.

2007/2010 - Strong La Nina develops during the season.
2008/2011 - Second year La Nina, still fairly strong.
2009/2012 - Weak El Nino develops during summer, peaks in the winter.

Back into a new La Nina next year?
Quoting hydrus:
Lol..It really is...Presslord said it best, " I predict that a hurricane will make landfall somewhere along the coast". Gives them some breathing room, and they deserve it after whats happened over the past 17 years...I am going with 14 named storms, 8 hurricanes, 3 major hurricanes. I do believe a few landfalls in the U.S. and the Antilles region are likely. Water temps are coming up, El-Nino is not arriving fast enough to have an effect on the QBO, and lower pressures may linger over the Caribbean for quite some time.
I agree with your forecast, hydrus. I expect we may have less activity in October and November, but otherwise I recall that warm-neutral seasons tend to be more rather than less active. And while neither Alberto nor Beryl were what one would think of as "normal" TSs in terms of their cyclogenesis, the fact that they both formed this early in the year - in the pre-season, to be accurate - suggests that the west side of the basin is going to be more prone to activity and development throughout the season. Meanwhile, I don't see any evidence so far to suggest that we won't see the average number of Twaves departing the African coast.

Whatever happens, it looks to be an interesting season, with a potentially active JAS period.
A band of rain setting up in Hernando County

Quoting NICycloneChaser:


Going to be interesting to see what happens going into next year. Lots of similarities to 2007-2009 here.

2007/2010 - Strong La Nina develops during the season.
2008/2011 - Second year La Nina, still fairly strong.
2009/2012 - Weak El Nino develops during summer, peaks in the winter.

Back into a new La Nina next year?
Was 2009 really a weak El Nino? I thought it was a strong one.
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:


Perhaps while you slept, the Cayman Islands annexed the Bahamas... ?? heh heh : )
Or the other way around, since they seem to think Grand Cayman is in the Bahamas somewhere... lol
Quoting help4u:
Bastardi nailed first two systems and predicted early season storms over a month ago.March he said alot of in close systems this year would be norm.


So did TA13 Levi and Keep said it I remember a ton of people saying it...

Wxgeekvirginia TA13 had their eye on Beryl 386 hours out and thats not an exageration
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Was 2009 really a weak El Nino? I thought it was a strong one.


It wasn't a very weak one, but not moderate/strong.
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Was 2009 really a weak El Nino? I thought it was a strong one.

It was a weak-moderate one.
2767. ncstorm
2768. ncstorm

the track keeps moving back and forth..if this comes out to the water than staying over land, then you have a storm riding up the east coast in a the gulf stream
Quoting BahaHurican:
Or the other way around, since they seem to think Grand Cayman is in the Bahamas somewhere... lol
Maybe they think we r one nation, under rain... lol

I think by September of 2009 it was a moderate El nino and then a strong one during the winter.
Quoting weatherh98:


So did TA13 Levi and Keep said it I remember a ton of people saying it...

Wxgeekvirginia TA13 had their eye on Beryl 386 hours out and thats not an exageration
Don't forget WunderkidCayman was screaming development of this system when it was down in the Caribbean.
Quoting BahaHurican:
I agree with your forecast, hydrus. I expect we may have less activity in October and November, but otherwise I recall that warm-neutral seasons tend to be more rather than less active. And while neither Alberto nor Beryl were what one would think of as "normal" TSs in terms of their cyclogenesis, the fact that they both formed this early in the year - in the pre-season, to be accurate - suggests that the west side of the basin is going to be more prone to activity and development throughout the season. Meanwhile, I don't see any evidence so far to suggest that we won't see the average number of Twaves departing the African coast.

Whatever happens, it looks to be an interesting season, with a potentially active JAS period.


Although the amount of Storms will be down, Im sure the amount of landfalls will be up.
**THE LATEST**
(click to enlarge image; images can further be enlarged in Link window)

Quoting GTcooliebai:
Don't forget WunderkidCayman was screaming development of this system when it was down in the Caribbean.
Yes where is he?.
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Was 2009 really a weak El Nino? I thought it was a strong one.


Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

It was a weak-moderate one.


2009

-0.9

-0.8

-0.6

-0.2

0.1

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

1.0

1.4

1.6

It peaked at +1.6 degrees, which is probably classed as a low-end moderate El Nino.
2776. ncstorm
Quoting weatherh98:


So did TA13 Levi and Keep said it I remember a ton of people saying it...

Wxgeekvirginia TA13 had their eye on Beryl 386 hours out and thats not an exageration


I saw a lot of posters calling for the GOM for the first storms..if I remember correctly, "the boiling pot" was used a LOT!
Quoting BrickellBreeze:


Although the amount of Storms will be down, Im sure the amount of landfalls will be up.
As the old saying goes, "It only takes one to make it a bad season."
Quoting BrickellBreeze:


Although the amount of Storms will be down, Im sure the amount of landfalls will be up.

Well we're already at one before the season even starts so it looks that way.
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Don't forget WunderkidCayman was screaming development of this system when it was down in the Caribbean.


We were all focused on Alberto and then you look and see a post like this


BLOB STRENGTHENING IN THE GOH FLORIDA WATCH OUT

at least he kept tabs so we could see
Quoting BrickellBreeze:


Although the amount of Storms will be down, Im sure the amount of landfalls will be up.
We may get only 12 more, which would fit the prognostication of an "average" season. However, I don't think anybody anticipated 2 named storms before June.

We shall see.
Quoting NICycloneChaser:




2009

-0.9

-0.8

-0.6

-0.2

0.1

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

1.0

1.4

1.6

It peaked at +1.6 degrees, which is probably classed as a low-end moderate El Nino.


That would be a strong El Nino.
2782. ncstorm
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Don't forget WunderkidCayman was screaming development of this system when it was down in the Caribbean.


Wonderkid was the only one who kept with 94L..I have to give him the credit of beryl..he got into some heated arguments with several posters who thought it wouldnt materialize because of shear..
Quoting ncstorm:


I saw a lot of posters calling for the GOM for the first storms..if I remember correctly, "the boiling pot" was used a LOT!

The GOM has been a desert for the last month... I don't see anything forming there until the start of July at this point... I think anything that forms in June would form in the SW Caribbean or off the SE coast like Alberto and Beryl.
Quoting help4u:
Bastardi nailed first two systems and predicted early season storms over a month ago.March he said alot of in close systems this year would be norm.
I guess even a broken clock is right twice a day. ;-)

I've been off for a while; has anyone predicted that, since we're already two storms ahead of 2005 at this point, 2012 is on track to see 30 named storms? Just kidding. But seriously, I've heard talk of moving the official start of the Atlantic hurricane season back two weeks, and there may be justification for that; over the past seven seasons (counting this year), as many storms have formed in May--four--as have formed in June.
Quoting NICycloneChaser:


Going to be interesting to see what happens going into next year. Lots of similarities to 2007-2009 here.

2007/2010 - Strong La Nina develops during the season.
2008/2011 - Second year La Nina, still fairly strong.
2009/2012 - Weak El Nino develops during summer, peaks in the winter.

Back into a new La Nina next year?


Did 2004 and 2009 have a weak El Nino those years which transition into really actives seasons the next year.
May 28th anomalies are out...El Nino is making progress:

Quoting washingtonian115:
Yes where is he?.
He was here this morning if you scroll back a page or two. He noticed the flare-up off the coast of Nicaragua and Honduras which has since waned.
2788. LargoFl
...........Jacksonville Traffic Cams
2789. LargoFl
Quoting LargoFl:




Your Comment:



Rich Text. ..........Jacksonville Traffic Cams



 



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Quoting ncstorm:


I saw a lot of posters calling for the GOM for the first storms..if I remember correctly, "the boiling pot" was used a LOT!
It'll be interesting to see if the first "in-season" storms do form there. However, I have come to expect early season storms, especially in June, to form in the same area where we saw the blow-up last night, off the coast of Central America in that monsoonal gyre that often sets up there.
2791. LargoFl
Jacksonville traffic Cams..........Link
Quoting GTcooliebai:
He was here this morning if you scroll back a page or two. He noticed the flare-up off the coast of Nicaragua and Honduras which has since waned.


It may be down but it's not out.
Quoting ncstorm:


Wonderkid was the only one who kept with 94L..I have to give him the credit of beryl..he got into some heated arguments with several posters who thought it wouldnt materialize because of shear..

That was the whole point of the argument. I was one to argue with him. I never said it wouldn't develop, I just simply said it wouldn't develop while in the Caribbean because wind shear was too high there.
Quoting MississippiWx:


That would be a strong El Nino.


Oh really? Guess I should have looked at the definitions a bit more before posting lol.

I suspect we'll oscillate around generally neutral conditions for the next two or three years. Had 2 strong La Ninas very close together so could be a while before the next one.
Quoting ncstorm:


Wonderkid was the only one who kept with 94L..I have to give him the credit of beryl..he got into some heated arguments with several posters who thought it wouldnt materialize because of shear..


Thats the thrill of tracking storms you dont know exactly what will happen next.
2796. LargoFl
JACKSONVILLE, FL (WAWS/CNN) - Jacksonville is in a state of emergency right now and the mayor has asked everyone to stay inside because of Tropical Storm Beryl.

Also, the beaches have been closed because of strong surf coming in off the Atlantic Ocean.

There are some reports of damage in Jacksonville, FL, including a roof blown off a house.

There are 18,000 to 20,000 people reportedly without power in the city because trees and power lines have come down.

A big concern is flooding because of high tide and that could flood some of the rivers.
Quoting ncstorm:


Wonderkid was the only one who kept with 94L..I have to give him the credit of beryl..he got into some heated arguments with several posters who thought it wouldnt materialize because of shear..


Yeah, he never claimed that it would develop once in the Atlantic. He was all about it developing in the Caribbean. I never saw anyone argue with him about it developing once in the Atlantic.

Edit: He might have said it would develop in the Atlantic, but the argument was all about the Caribbean.
Quoting MississippiWx:
May 28th anomalies are out...El Nino is making progress:

But not fast progress :).
Quoting ncstorm:


Wonderkid was the only one who kept with 94L..I have to give him the credit of beryl..he got into some heated arguments with several posters who thought it wouldnt materialize because of shear..
At times 94L was battling 70 knots of shear and I thought it would be ripped apart, but I said well lets give it a couple of days and see what it looks like afterall anything is possible in the tropics. The models had a good handle on this system in regards to development and track imo, so that is what persuaded me not to give up on this storm.
Vorticity in the SW Carribean is actually on the decrease. Don't see anything developing down there, at least not any time soon.

Quoting NICycloneChaser:


Oh really? Guess I should have looked at the definitions a bit more before posting lol.

I suspect we'll oscillate around generally neutral conditions for the next two or three years. Had 2 strong La Ninas very close together so could be a while before the next one.


Yeah, weak El Nino is 0.5-0.9C, moderate 1.0-1.4C, and strong 1.5C+.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Wow... we are well on track for 3000 posts if we don't get a new blog in the next hour or so...
Quoting BahaHurican:
Wow... we are well on track for 3000 posts if we don't get a new blog in the next hour or so...
Right when you type that we get a new blog.
Quoting BahaHurican:
Wow... we are well on track for 3000 posts if we don't get a new blog in the next hour or so...

Nice timing...
Quoting weatherh98:


So did TA13 Levi and Keep said it I remember a ton of people saying it...

Wxgeekvirginia TA13 had their eye on Beryl 386 hours out and thats not an exageration


I had my eye on it, and I was posting the GFS model runs, but I never said that Beryl would develop until Wednesday when it was apparent that it would.
Quoting ncstorm:


Wonderkid was the only one who kept with 94L..I have to give him the credit of beryl..he got into some heated arguments with several posters who thought it wouldnt materialize because of shear..


Wrong. I posted Crown Weathers forecast that 94l would become Beryl exactly where it formed. He scoffed at it basically saying "bla bla bla".
I think there's a significant deflection northwards in Beryl's motion, so it may be turning even earlier than thought now.
T-minus 4 days till June 1st :)
2812. hydrus
Quoting BahaHurican:
I agree with your forecast, hydrus. I expect we may have less activity in October and November, but otherwise I recall that warm-neutral seasons tend to be more rather than less active. And while neither Alberto nor Beryl were what one would think of as "normal" TSs in terms of their cyclogenesis, the fact that they both formed this early in the year - in the pre-season, to be accurate - suggests that the west side of the basin is going to be more prone to activity and development throughout the season. Meanwhile, I don't see any evidence so far to suggest that we won't see the average number of Twaves departing the African coast.

Whatever happens, it looks to be an interesting season, with a potentially active JAS period.
El-nino has most of its influence on the Main Development Region south of 25 north and the eastern half of the Caribbean. Most late season storms form closer to home where Nino has little if any impact. I believe there will be strong late season storms too....Points of Origin by 10-Day Period

The figures below show the points of tropical cyclone genesis by 10-day periods during the hurricane season. These figures depict named storms only; no subtropical storms or unnamed storms. The source years include 1851-2009 for the Atlantic.
2813. dearmas
NICE downpour here in Wesley Cahpel FL

LOVE ITTTTT!!!!
Beryl's tap on the Gulf isn't quite what I expected, but it has managed to fill in the south side a bit more solidly with a nice shield of rain.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Still got some 20-25 kt winds offshore, but overall, Beryl is not a significant concern for winds anymore.




Yeah. They should really learn to narrow their numbers down...


That's because they are uncertain about neutral vs el nino.

The longer the neutral or near-neutral lasts, the more storms, on average.

That's why I had 15 to 16.

Average for el nino is 12

Average for neutral is 18.

Half of neutral plus half of el nino is 15.

Two thirds of neutral plus one third of el nino is 16.


So I figured 15 to 16 named storms.


Very unprofessional, but very simple.