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Bertha strengthening again, after rapidly falling apart

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:15 PM GMT on July 09, 2008

Hurricane Bertha fell apart yesterday to a minimal Category 1 hurricane about as quickly as her meteoric rise to major hurricane status had come. At Bertha's peak--a Category 3 hurricane with 120 mph winds and 948 mb pressure--Bertha was the third strongest hurricane on record so early in the season. Increased wind shear of about 20 knots plus some dry Saharan air that got injected into the core caused Bertha's sudden demise.

The intensity forecast
Shear is on the wane again over Bertha, down to about 15 knots. The storm is beginning to get a more symmetric cloud pattern and better organization, as seen on visible satellite loops. An eye is reappearing, and with Bertha over warm 28°C water, further intensification is likely today. None of the models are predicting a return to Category 3 status again, but Bertha could become a Category 2 hurricane again before wind shear increases once more later this week.


Figure 1. Bertha at peak intensity: 21:15 GMT Monday July 7, 2008. At this time, satellite estimates of Bertha's strength were 115 kt (135 mph), making the storm a weak Category 4 hurricane. Bertha was the third strongest hurricane on record so early in the season.

The track forecast
Bertha is slowing down and turning northward as it "feels" the approach of a trough of low pressure to the north. All of the computer model turn Bertha northwards east of Bermuda, and it currently appears that the island will feel only peripheral effects of Bertha. However, the trough of low pressure turning Bertha to the north will not be strong enough to fully drag the storm into the far North Atlantic, so Bertha will wander close to Bermuda early next week while it waits for another trough of low pressure to finish the job. It is very unlikely Bertha will threaten the U.S., but it could eventually affect the Maritime Provinces of Canada.

Elsewhere in the tropics
There are no threat areas to discuss in the tropical Atlantic. The GFS model is predicting that a tropical depression may form off the coast of Africa on Monday.

Dramatic temperature difference in California
At 3pm PDT yesterday, the temperature at the Point Sur Light Station was 52°F. A shallow marine layer lay along the coast, keeping temperatures cool. Just 20 miles inland, the temperature was 111°F at Arroyo Seco RAWS! You can check out this remarkable contrast by viewing the Wundermap for the region. We just added a fire layer to the product yesterday, so you can see the smoke density in the region as well. It's another bad day in Big Sur!

I'll post an update Thursday morning.
Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

936 Tazmanian

Isn't that CMC forecast for a different wave expected at position A this coming Saturday? That's how I interpreted the descriptions on the image.. but since I taught myself I very well could be wrong.

First post.. hello all!
Quoting leftovers:
As long a Bertha is spinning I doubt if anything else will develop in the Atlantic.


Money, let's talk money...I'm kidding of course, but don't short change the ATL basin for multiple, simultaneous events
Because Bertha is the main actor when she sees competition she just absorbs it. Until she moves into the north at. most likely nada. Seen this alot of times before too.
1007. IKE
...Tropical waves...

Tropical wave along 32w south of 14n moving west near 15 kt.
Although the wave is at a fairly low latitude and of low
amplitude it consists of a well organized low level circulation
with pockets of moderate convection developing.

Tropical wave along 51w south of 13n moving west 10 to 15 kt.
Cyclonic flow in the low clouds on visible satellite imagery and
quik-scat data help to confirm this position. Nearby
precipitation is in the ITCZ.


From the 8:05 pm discussion in the Atlantic.
1008. JLPR
is the wave at 32W the one the models develop?
wilma was a monster...not quite as monsterous as that image though

haha
1010. IKE
Quoting jphurricane2006:
lol leftovers now you know that isnt true

if that were the case many of the storms in the heart of the season, would cease to exist, please lol

that is pretty damn funny though


We had this discussion with leftovers the other morning on here. I told him the coast of Africa was 2,000 miles away from Bertha.
1011. IKE
Quoting JLPR:
is the wave at 32W the one the models develop?


I think so...or it may be the next one...wherever it is.
1012. JLPR
maybe its that one lol who knows =P
this part sounded very interesting :

Tropical wave along 32w south of 14n moving west near 15 kt.
Although the wave is at a fairly low latitude and of low
amplitude it consists of a well organized low level circulation
with pockets of moderate convection developing.

So we have a low all we need is good convection then...invest time lol =P
We will see? Whats odds do you give me Floodman? I would of took big Ikes 1 to 1000 that Bertha could make it in the gulf a few days ago. I have not seen two at a time in July especially with the main dog in the central at. Has anyone?
1014. IKE
Quoting JLPR:
maybe its that one lol who knows =P
this part sounded very interesting :

Tropical wave along 32w south of 14n moving west near 15 kt.
Although the wave is at a fairly low latitude and of low
amplitude it consists of a well organized low level circulation
with pockets of moderate convection developing.

So we have a low all we need is good convection then...invest time lol =P


Yup....
1015. JLPR
Well lol after seeing Bertha developing this early im going to say anything is possible this season
1016. IKE
Quoting leftovers:
We will see? Whats odds do you give me Floodman? I would of took big Ikes 1 to 1000 that Bertha could make it in the gulf a few days ago. I have not seen two at a time in July especially with the main dog in the central at. Has anyone?


Big Ike...lol.....5'10"....170 with my shoes on...
I have not seen two at a time in July especially with the main dog in the central at. Has anyone?

I have. In 2005, Cindy and Dennis were simultaneously active. Then Dennis and Emily were simultaneously active after Cindy dissipated. So there.

And almost every year during the heart of the season, there is more than 1 storm in the basin at the same time. Seriously, what are you even talking about...?
Bertha maintaining her strength cat 3 tomorrow morning?
1020. JLPR

how about four at a time lol

----
whoops sorry I had a problem with the pic =P
can we talk about waves here?
it is just about blowing a gale out of the SSW here on the crystal coast. the nearshore buoy hasn't started seeing any groundswell, at what size do you guys think the swell will peak here on the NC beaches?
2 questions...
#1 when does the next one of these come out?
Dvorak T #'s at 0945UTC

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.4 / 995.4mb/ 53.0kt


#2
Is there any chance of Bertha going between the Bermuda high and the florida high since she's on a northwest course? i dont think so, but i figured id ask.
Hi all,

Any of the models do anything with the wave in the Central Atl to the South East of the Windward Islands?

Thx
94L by AM
The show is Bertha all those other waves look feeble. Yea 2000 miles JP. See any development yet. No Look at TAZs wave S Amer. on water vapor black and white is my favorite. It is getting sucked up into Bertha no development there. Only chance is that wave at 30 wheres the clouds? Sorry to be the sore on your ass guys but I am a bear on development. Last thing was not one of those two systems Kory in the Carib.?
1026. IKE
Quoting bajelayman2:
Hi all,

Any of the models do anything with the wave in the Central Atl to the South East of the Windward Islands?

Thx


Which one? If it's the one at 30W...answer is yes.

Okay out with Bertha and in with 94L I guess. I haven't been reading all these past replies so could someone point me to where 94L will be forming? :)
1029. IKE
Quoting leftovers:
The show is Bertha all those other waves look feeble. Yea 2000 miles JP. See any development yet. No Look at TAZs wave S Amer. on water vapor black and white is my favorite. It is getting sucked up into Bertha no development there. Only chance is that wave at 30 wheres the clouds? Sorry to be the sore on your ass guys but I am a bear on development. Last thing was not one of those two systems Kory in the Carib.?


I see what you're saying with the wave near SA...the one near 30W probably has more promise.
1030. JRL28
Are the Hurricane Hunter's scheduled to fly into Bertha soon?
Sorry for asking right when I asked Ike pretty
much answered it for me thanks!
1034. IKE
leftovers..I posted this earlier....

"Tropical wave along 32w south of 14n moving west near 15 kt.
Although the wave is at a fairly low latitude and of low
amplitude it consists of a well organized low level circulation
with pockets of moderate convection developing."....


A well organized low...that sounds promising..plus..if it's the wave some models are hinting at developing...it's worth watching.
Well the NHC said the wave will move west, and theY haS BEEN SO ACCURATE IN THEIR TRACK PREDICTIONS THIS YEAR, WE HAD TO PAY ATTENTION TO WHAT THEY ARE SAYING.
Bertha has officially begun to stall

Link
BERTHA WILL FOLLOW THE WEAKNESS BETWEEN THE TWO HIGHS, NW N,NE,PASSING CLOSE TO THE EAST OF BERMUDA.
Call me stupid. Thats okay.. Its a blog folks.
1041. IKE
Quoting jphurricane2006:
Ike remember this is the same person that said no way no how Bertha would form in the first place and he used the same type of rant like posts to do it

sorry but I dont buy into what he is saying at all


Not sure why he keeps bringing up the same things we've already talked about. If a system is 1,500-2,000 miles away from Bertha, it's got a chance to develop. It shouldn't be inhibited by Big Bertha.
You keep coming back makes you feel good huh. Belittling someone. Incidently I ate crow on bertha climatlogy was my reason. What is so wrong with that.
1043. JLPR
thats the problem you can never say no in weather
there is always a tiny probability of something forming even with climatology against it =)
what happened to cat 5 by midnight
1045. surfmom
1020 - great memory picture for me, I surfed 3 of the 4 storms pictured
Quoting leftovers:
You keep coming back makes you feel good huh. Belittling someone. Incidently I ate crow on bertha climatlogy was my reason. What is so wrong with that.


Because in this case climateology wasnt a good argument because the factors needed for development were there, and you ignored that part of the story of Bertha the storm that did infact form.
Quoting Thundercloud01221991:
what happened to cat 5 by midnight


Cat 5 by midnight? o_o It probably won't even
make it to a 3.
1049. surfmom
1021 NCsurfer - Check out this www.aurasurf.com he gives guesstamation - and he's usually right
1050. CJ5
Quoting philliesrock:
Bertha has officially begun to stall

Link


She has been spinning a 25N for about three hours, now.
1052. JLPR
Thundercloud01221991

lol its weird seeing someone with the same birthday lol year and everything =O lol
Quoting jphurricane2006:
exactly prophet, he never once acknowledged that conditions were different then climatology indicated, in fact he kept saying false things about shear and the SSTs


Realy LOL! I was there. This is a classic case of someone who thinks we blogers are stupid and have no memory of what they said.lol
Quoting HurricaneSwirl:
Quoting Thundercloud01221991:
what happened to cat 5 by midnight


Cat 5 by midnight? o_o It probably won't even
make it to a 3.



I know I was just pointing out the fact that earlier today people were saying that it would be a 5 tonight
Quoting JLPR:
Thundercloud01221991

lol its weird seeing someone with the same birthday lol year and everything =O lol


you birthday is Jan 22, 91?
1056. JLPR
Quoting Thundercloud01221991:
Quoting JLPR:
Thundercloud01221991

lol its weird seeing someone with the same birthday lol year and everything =O lol


you birthday is Jan 22, 91?


exactly lol its weird =P
I have never met anyone with my same birth date
1057. surfmom
any activity in the gomex worth mentioning.... you all know what I am looking for
Quoting JLPR:
Quoting Thundercloud01221991:
Quoting JLPR:
Thundercloud01221991

lol its weird seeing someone with the same birthday lol year and everything =O lol


you birthday is Jan 22, 91?


exactly lol its weird =P
I have never met anyone with my same birth date


I work at a place that stores information on people and I have searched for my birthday before there is only about 3 or 4 members in rochester area with my birthday and I have never met any of them
AL 2 2008071000 BEST 0 252N 586W 90 970
Approaching CAT3 again but it may be leveling off

1062. JLPR
well im out =P nice meeting someone with my same birthday =P goodnight
1063. surfmom
Thanks JP....keep hoping for that wave maker ...although they are expecting a little bump next week in the gulf, some wind swell due to the trough...maybe I'll get something to take the edge off
1064. surfmom
Have a good evening all - !!!
Night all. Back to work tomorrow.
00Z BAMs and Early Cycle models.
BAMD crushes Bermuda

My my could it be possible during the next few days???? Iam afraid it could very we'll be.

2 TC'S in early mid july??

NHC @ 8pm....

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 32W SOUTH OF 14N MOVING WEST NEAR 15 KT.
ALTHOUGH THE WAVE IS AT A FAIRLY LOW LATITUDE AND OF LOW
AMPLITUDE IT CONSISTS OF A WELL ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
WITH POCKETS OF MODERATE CONVECTION DEVELOPING.



yes 23 thats the wave to watch wind shear is low
1070. msphar
Hard to see much of anything at 14N 32W but I'll keep squinting at it.
Hello gang just logged on not been on since early morning.....whats Bertha doing
23 wind shear is low it may have a hard time when it comes in to the 30 to 40kt of wind shear but i think that wind shear sould be lower

1074. franck
Computer model concensus changing to a more westerly track for Bertha.
Quoting HouseofGryffindor:
Does anybody think the new wave could be an invest soon?



yes by AM but olny if it stays in tac in tell then
Looks like Bertha blew up again..funny NHC had Bertha this morning for the next 120 hrs no more than 75kts max....i said on my blog that Bertha would at least get to Cat.2 lol
Quoting franck:
Computer model concensus changing to a more westerly track for Bertha.


again?!!
hmm the UKMET tropical cyclone guidance analysis isn't showing any development in advance like it did for Bertha..
1070. msphar 9:22 PM EDT on July 09, 2008
Hard to see much of anything at 14N 32W but I'll keep squinting at it.

Fairly low in latitude is correct but the way this year has started its possible we may see some development out in the eastern atlantic during the next 3-5 days.
i think that the BAMs are picking up on the weakness west of Bermuda
I still want to see this 1025mb H break down before that TUTT gets too far south. This has been a fun storm to watch.
1084. franck
BAMM even takes Bertha west of Bermuda.
Definitely a Big Girl again......
TS good blog today and whats going on with your rays?
new wave to watch now in open water and have not gone poof yet

Wave at 32W shows up on the 72 hour surface forecast, so it may be 1-2 days before an invest.


Click on image to view original size in a new window



The SSD has another invest for the Eastern Pacific.

This invest is east of "INVEST1"
1092. Levi32
The wave that the GFS is developing isn't the one at 32w. That one is just off the coast of Africa right now, and looks much better than the one at 32w, although the NHC hasn't labeled it a wave yet.
Yes I was wrong on development of Bertha (climatology said no way) I never wrote conditions were hostile. Someone wrote that earlier. I just said water temps were marginal . Today I said no development in the At. until Bertha exits stage right. JP jumped me. Thats okay. If his forecast for Bertha was right Id (E Cent. Fl.) be putting the plywood up on the windows right now. I dont see anyone jumping him. In fact Ive never seen him admit he was wrong What you cant disagree on this blog? No bears on additional development out there? I am by myself on this one. I was also a bear on the stock mkt back in Sept 07 thankfully.
1097. msphar
I can see some slight sluggish rotation down low but I don't see a closed circulation yet.
where the Africa wave going???
yes . HouseofGryffindor
The "Taz wave" has 0 chance of developing
Hello All- there are a few of us that are actually in Bermuda and truly appreciate the "expertise" of those on this blog. Please understand that your thoughts of Bertha over the next 3-4 days helps me plan a little better. Don't get me wrong...we've hoped for the best but planned for the worst, not only for Bertha but for the entire season. I guess I mean that please don't let up on the analysis as there are 70K people in the middle of the Atlantic that will feel it's impact no matter what...
1092. Levi32

I would have to disagree, if you follow the 24, 48 and 72 hour surface forecast, the wave at 32W is designated as a "L" on the 72 hour plot.
so we got two wave to watch one could be come 94L and the other 95L
Adrian, if you're still here...did you receive my mail?
i dont know the site but a scientist predicted the wave off of africa to have a 50 % chance of hitting florida
Quoting HouseofGryffindor:
Quoting philliesrock:
The "Taz wave" has 0 chance of developing


The one just off the coast, or the other one we were watching?


The one near the islands.
JP i'll back you up i never saw you say e cent fl to end all next subject.
he said that the path depending on the steering current
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
1092. Levi32

I would have to disagree, if you follow the 24, 48 and 72 hour surface forecast, the wave at 32W is designated as a "L" on the 72 hour plot.


I stand corrected, CMC is developing the wave that shows up on the 72 hr surface forecast, not the GFS.
Quoting jphurricane2006:
damn we have some bullish people in here tonight lol, well at least its good for a good laugh


Wow this is funny.....lol
1095.

The problem with saying nothing can develop because Bertha is out there is incorrect though. She is at about 25N/58W...this wouldn't stop something from forming lets say at about 10N/35W. Get the point? Ever seen this pic before? Some storms close together and I'm sure they developed not too far from each other.


1101. philliesrock 9:42 PM AST on July 09, 2008

Nothing ever has a ''0'' % chance of developing, maybe a 0.001 chance, LOL...
get a lode of this lol cyclonebuster is on AccuWeather.com Forums and talking about his TUNNELS how long you think it will take for them to ban him from there???


Link
he has a couple guys getting sent from southern africa in plains to check it out next week mon. or tues i lost the sight because my computer died i had to plug it back in :)
Quoting cristobaliscoming:
i dont know the site but a scientist predicted the wave off of africa to have a 50 % chance of hitting florida

Joe Bastardi?
1123. franck
1109. After the event will you be called 'Cristobalisgone'?
Quoting HouseofGryffindor:
1110. philliesrock 1:46 AM GMT on July 10, 2008


The one near the islands.


You may be right. I think the one off the African coast has a better shot.


That will develop sometime down the road.
I just checked the WV imagery and it appears Bermuda may have to watch out at least. Bertha appears to have taken a hard left currently. It appears she is heading westward and following the main winds heading straight for Bermuda. However I am no where close to being an expert, so someone else is going to have to agree or disagree.
Quoting gittyup1:
Hello All- there are a few of us that are actually in Bermuda and truly appreciate the "expertise" of those on this blog. Please understand that your thoughts of Bertha over the next 3-4 days helps me plan a little better. Don't get me wrong...we've hoped for the best but planned for the worst, not only for Bertha but for the entire season. I guess I mean that please don't let up on the analysis as there are 70K people in the middle of the Atlantic that will feel it's impact no matter what...


Judging by the model consensus, you better start preparing. The CMC, NOGAPS, and BAMD stall Bertha over Bermuda as a hurricane.
does anyone have a link to wave hights near bermuda?
Quoting philliesrock:
Quoting cristobaliscoming:
i dont know the site but a scientist predicted the wave off of africa to have a 50 % chance of hitting florida

Joe Bastardi?


not sure
hahaha lol
1132. h6
anybody read post 1102 ?
I think we should get back to Bertha for now.
Extreme your map with all the storms is nice. Show me a similiar one in the middle of July. TWC have really got their act together this yr Steve Lyons yesterday said watch the one coming off of Africa. One last note Your right JP. Bunch of bulls in the house.
Quoting HurrikanEB:
does anyone have a link to wave hights near bermuda?


Try here, <>a href=
Berthas eye is shrinking
1133.

I can't show you a similar map of multiple July storms at one time because typically, in fact perhaps never, as that happened with multiple storms in the same general area in July. But that doesn't matter. It doesn't change how the systems behave.
1137. CJ5
Quoting Tazmanian:
get a lode of this lol cyclonebuster is on AccuWeather.com Forums and talking about his TUNNELS how long you think it will take for them to ban him from there???


Link


Wow, that dude is a nut. He would be more intresting if he talked about harnessing the "force" of the Bermuda Triangle and making Bertha vanish, though.
IF THE NHC DOESN'T CALL HER A CAT. 3 AT 11PM, THEY'VE LOST THERE MIND, I THINK THAT WAVE AROUND.14N.,40W HAS A GOOD CHANCE,BERTHA HAS PULLED UP ALOT OF MOISTURE AND THAT AREA IS RIPE FOR A TC TO FORM IMO, IGIVE IT BETTER THAN A 50% CHANCE, AND WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH IT VERY CAREFULLY DURNING THIS WEEKEND...SHOULD BE OUR NEXT INVEST BY TOMMOROW NIGHT..
CRISTOBILISCOMING IS A TROLL EVERYONE!!! PAY NO MIND ITS PROBABLIY THE IMPOSTER
her eye is shrinking and theres an OBVIOUS southwest turn in the last few frames
Loop
1138.

Please don't use cap lock...you sound like Stromtop/stormkat...the NHC only set the 00Z intensity to 90 knots. The satellite estimates probably aren't high enough for a Cat 3. ADT is at low end Cat 3 right now but the SAB estimate was still at 105mph/90 knots but I haven't checked the TAFB estimate.
1138. stillwaiting 9:58 PM EDT on July 09, 2008

Shes at least a strong Cat. 2
1143. nash28
I see the natives are restless:-)

575 NM southeast of Bermuda now..
I highly doubt we would see a Cat 3 upgrade at 11pm...she's gonna have to organize a bit more to get those higher estimates. We will have to see in the morning.
Wow, that dude is a nut. He would be more intresting if he talked about harnessing the "force" of the Bermuda Triangle and making Bertha vanish, though.
Had a cousin like that. Said he could cure bone fractures by putting a picture of you in a box made of styrifoam and letting it sit in a pigeon coup for exactly 17.5 hours.
I sure do miss him
1147. help4u
post 1112,they make perdictions like this all the time with global warming,yet that is 10 years in the future.This is only a week.
Geez, my last comment (#1134) was messed up...sorry HurrikanEB
Bertha is making a strange turn to the west or southwest. This is a strange occurrance. Also Bertha will probably stay at current strength or be upgraded to 110mph, a high end cat 2 hurricane.
1150. nash28
Boy, I am about Bertha'd out! This one for some reason feels like FOREVER!
1151. JRRP
cmc 12z run showed two TC in the atlantic
1153. nash28
She's beginning to stall.
Has any one seen how symetrical her CDO is right now!!,with convection about even thruout and a recent blow up on the south side and her eye is about perfect now... Cat. 3 for sure
1150. nash28 2:06 AM GMT on July 10, 2008

Boy, I am about Bertha'd out! This one for some reason feels like FOREVER



been what a week now since the cyclone formed?
Quoting medicroc:
Wow, that dude is a nut. He would be more intresting if he talked about harnessing the "force" of the Bermuda Triangle and making Bertha vanish, though.
Had a cousin like that. Said he could cure bone fractures by putting a picture of you in a box made of styrifoam and letting it sit in a pigeon coup for exactly 17.5 hours.
I sure do miss him

ROFLMAO! Mercy!
Southside needs more convection. Not a category three yet.
1158. h6
1140. HurrikanEB

There is no south turn in recent SAT images.
I now beleave bermudan's should pay EXTREMELY close attention to bertha and may be in the path..
1157.

Well keep in mind that her center is about in the middle of the CDO...the rest of the convection is part of a cirrus canopy it would seem (I think..might be a little mixed up lol). I've seen a lot of storms that have the eye appear to be on the south side of the system but it's really not. It's just the way it's developed.
There's a westward turn for sure!
One of bertha's southern feeder bands brought some brief showers to us here in the leewards but everything is quiet now, considering whats just to our ne.
1163. njdevil
It's not a strange occurance, the eye is unstable and that's half of a rotation in the loop. Don't see what happens in the other half of the rotation.
Does anyone remember a few years ago when Pat Robertson "prayed" a hurricane away from Virginia? I was telling someone about it today...can't remember the 'cane ...seems like it hit Maryland...which always made me wonder what God has against Marylanders...
ADT

Rapid Dissipation Flag : FLAG
Boy, I am about Bertha'd out! This one for some reason feels like FOREVER!

Maybe that's because all of the storms last year were so short lived? The only one that lasted even a week was Dean.
quick Q for the experts ( since I am not )

Is it possible, considering where Bertha is at the moment, for her to move NW then SW over the next few days, effectively going back down to Florida?

I'm not being nasty/wishing, just looking at the overall flow in and around the gulf.....

Thank you
1166.

Exactly! Thats what I was thinking. I feel like Bertha is lasting forever but I forget what its like to go through a storm lasting this long. However, she is/will be longer lasting than a lot of storms though.
HGW, Bertha formed last week thursday (tomorrow morning at 5:00am would be exactly a week)...
1165.

Well we know thats not happening lol...I really don't pay any attention to that feature on the ADT.
1171. Patrap
Hurricane Bertha

Water Vapor LoopLink

InfraRed Loop Link
1172. franck
Certain birds do have healing powers.
Does anyone remember a few years ago when Pat Robertson "prayed" a hurricane away from Virginia? I was telling someone about it today...can't remember the 'cane ...seems like it hit Maryland...which always made me wonder what God has against Marylanders...

He prayed Felix in 1995 would turn away. It did, but that was just coincidence. Anyone will know after watching and/or reading about him that Pat Robertson is just an idiot with no real supernatural power or anything of the sort. He's a big con. He also prayed Isabel and Gloria away, and we see how that went.
1174. 7544
how long shes been going wsw i dont see it is there a current link tia
part of ADT is digital (computer) so its not like the regular tecnique which is manual and subjective and thus subjective to errors (and some nonsensical errors at best) That is why ADT shouldnt be use. The t-nos from TAFB and SAB are more reliable.

How does ADT account for diurnal variations? In the manual tecnique, they tell you that u cannot reduce the T-NO in the first 48-72 hrs of diurnal variations.
1176. Patrap
UNCLASSIFIED

FNMOC WXMAP Model: NOGAPS Area: Atlantic DTG: 2008070918

1000-500 Thickness [dm] and Sea Level Pressure [mb] Link
There's some shear ahead...so that might help! Although the one of the 8 p.m. models has it going west of Bermuda!
(I know somebody complained about posting images, but a picture is worth a lotta words so please click on this link!Link
that's it...Felix...thanks...
she'll jump due west for a bit and rebuild even stronger

wait watch and see
1173, I second that motion,the guys a crockpot preacher, gives christians a bad name..IMO...Wish a hurricane would hit him!!
Well thank goodness the first real storm is a fish storm..lets hope the rest of the season is like 07 for all our sake
Is it possible, considering where Bertha is at the moment, for her to move NW then SW over the next few days, effectively going back down to Florida?

Doubtful. She'll be too far north by the time the steering currents weaken for it all the way down to the U.S., especially Florida. Even if a ridge were to build back in in a couple of days, it'd only be brief, as another trough will come in in about 5 days and begin sweeping her out to sea.

Exactly! Thats what I was thinking. I feel like Bertha is lasting forever but I forget what its like to go through a storm lasting this long. However, she is/will be longer lasting than a lot of storms though.

Yeah well, I remember Ivan very well. It lasted for almost three weeks. Didn't think it would ever die.


convection looks like it has weakened though..
Is she going wsw or was that a jog?
1185. DDR
1164
Quoting presslord:
Does anyone remember a few years ago when Pat Robertson "prayed" a hurricane away from Virginia? I was telling someone about it today...can't remember the 'cane ...seems like it hit Maryland...which always made me wonder what God has against Marylanders...


LMAO!
1186. Patrap
Whitecap Probability (%) NOGAPS Link
Link
WV loop. This shows a new area of convection or moisture plume over the southern side of the eye. This also shows the westward turn I was talking about. This is no joke. People in Bermuda need to stay tuned to NHC updates.
1188. Patrap
Significant Wave Height (ft.) and Direction,Hurricane Bertha Link
1189. njdevil
This might not be a fish storm for Bermuda. The worst thing that could happen for Bermuda would be for it to get to the western side.

That raises the chances of a NE quad hit or getting brushed while Bertha dances around aimlessly.
1190. help4u
POST1173,get a life.
1192. Patrap
Civil Air Terminal, Bermuda wunderground Link
1182 - thank you :)
Pat, Hades or 456 which level of the steering levels has the most impact on Bertha?
02L/H/B/C3 MAJOR HURRICANE
EST PRESS 959.9
EST WIND 102 KTS GUSTS113 KTS
EST POS 58.9W/25.3N

TRACK MARK
59.1W/25.5N
59.3W/25.7N
59.6W/25.9N
59.9W/26.3N
60.3W/26.6N
***STOP***
1197. help4u
1194,i was not the one who made the commet about one praying a storm away.
Well W456 those objective satellite estimates are more frequent and are more susceptible to increase more significantly to rapid intensification. The constraints seem lighter than the subjective numbers. Also...subjective numbers come hours before the advisory, while objective numbers are more frequent. The NHC mainly used the objective numbers to upgrade Bertha to a major cane the first time. But the fact that subjective numbers aren't as susceptible to rapid changes or even minor changes makes them fairly reliable.
1199. Patrap

Hurricane Steering as a Potential Vorticity Advection Process Link
Bertha is still kicking turf I see. I wonder what the next forecast will say about Bertha.
pray on brother or sister!! and god bless
1203. Patrap
Technical Summary of the National Hurricane Center Track and Intensity Models Link
Good Evening everyone,

Ok I have two things to mention briefly.

1) I found this on another wx site: Bertha has thus far produced roughly 10% of the average energy produced in a typical Atlantic hurricane season. This large accumulation of energy so early in the season is unusual, and Bertha may be with us for many more days.

2) I see/saw athere's a computer model that has a cut-off low spining up off the coast of N/S Carolina has anyone else seen this and is there a model still showing this?
1204, yea on the WV, it appears to be trying to undercut bertha moving to the SE
Pat I couldn't read most of that link - the text is too light. Do you have a nutshell version? If I am looking at the CIMSS steering layers, which will have the most affect on Bertha?
1207. 7544
looks like she is moving to the west on the last three frames is the high buliding back in early than expected or is she making her own path getting interesting what will dmax bring tonight for bertha and the new wave stay tuned the mystery bertha continuies
i wonder what the new forecast track will say
1208,next track won't be much different than the 5pm track..
I believe the TAFB and SAB numbers were 90 knots and ADT numbers are nearly 100 knots. So even if Bertha only becomes a little better organized overnight that could enough to raise those estimates a bit and make her a major. We'll see.
1213. 7544
they will say nw unless bertha stays going west in the 3 to 6 hours then it could change on the 5 am update dmax should tell us more tonight
1210...it may
Cajun, yeah, I get that a lot. And yep I gave birth to them all. My house always looks like a hurricane hit! :o) But at least my kids are more predictable than Bertha.

I am really having a hard time understanding the projected path with the high above her and current steering models. She doesn't look like she is near the trough and I am trying to learn how to read all these charts. Anyone please help me understand!
Good evening all! Waiting on the next advisory before publishing my update on my site.

In my opinion, it's getting to point where the NHC needs to decide whether or not to place Bermuda under either a tropical storm or hurricane watch. Based upon the last projected track, it would be only 48 hours until they may experience tropical storm force winds. I believe that at some point tomorrow, we will see Bermuda placed under a hurricane watch.
Hi JFV!
1218. Patrap
Quoting CatastrophicDL:
Pat I couldn't read most of that link - the text is too light. Do you have a nutshell version? If I am looking at the CIMSS steering layers, which will have the most affect on Bertha?


Sorry bout dat Link,didnt see it was the HTML version,..Heres the CIMMS Page ,.winds and analyses are on the top Left.
Link
1220. Patrap
Bertha specific,Link,re=loaded
ya know...the NHC guys/gals really do a heck of a job....we crack on them alot...but they are pretty darned good...
1223. Patrap
Low Level Visible and Shortwave Infrared Winds
Storm Scale.
interesting Montage ,Bertha Link
1224. 7544
chs do you see her going west right now like most of us are how long can she head that way tia
1226. Patrap
wunderground Bermuda has Tags on the forecast for Bertha with Range Linkand winds.


The Cone is steady expanding west...and west... i believe the second trough may weaken and this storm may make a loop...

like ernesto i believe mad a loop...
NHC maintains Bertha as a Category 2 with 105 mph winds at the 11PM advisory.
1229. franck
1216 CCHS...really sticking your neck out huh.
The public advisory is out and they maintain her direction and wind speed.
...BERTHA EXPECTED TO MOVE MORE SLOWLY BUT COULD REGAIN MAJOR
HURRICANE STATUS...

IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE THE EXTENT TO WHICH BERTHA COULD
IMPACT BERMUDA. INTERESTS ON THAT ISLAND SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF BERTHA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BERTHA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 25.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 58.9 WEST OR ABOUT 590 MILES...
950 KM...SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.

BERTHA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR. A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. BERTHA IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AND BERTHA COULD REGAIN MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS ON THURSDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES...220 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970 MB...28.64 INCHES.

1233. njdevil
CDN Maritimes are now slightly in play for wind probabilities.

Quoting 7544:
chs do you see her going west right now like most of us are how long can she head that way tia


Throughout the entire history of this storm, Bertha has made movements towards the west that made many (including myself) believe she was changing course. But, these have all turned out to be wobbles over the past three days. I would wait another three hours or so to determine whether this may be a change in direction or another wobble. But, the more wobbles to the west by Bertha, the higher the risk to Bermuda.
1236. Patrap
UNCLASSIFIED

FNMOC WXMAP Model: NOGAPS Area: Tropical Atlantic DTG: 2008070918
500mb Heights Relative Vorticity Temp [C] Link
I was surprised they did not upgrade to Cat 3--but I await the discussion to see their reasons :)
CCHS Weather Center Tropical Update
Written at 10:45 PM.
This can be found at my site.


This evening, Hurricane Bertha has restrengthened back to Category 2 status after falling apart to almost a tropical storm just 24 hours ago. This was due to high wind shear and a deep dry air pocket infiltrating the storm. It has overcome that and is experiencing favorable conditions right now.

Over the past couple days, it has been moving generally northwestward (with occasional jogs to the west and to the north). It will continue moving in this general direction over the next 2 to 3 days. For right now, residents living in Bermuda should be on full alert for a possible hurricane to affect them sometime late Friday into Saturday as we have yet to see a full northward turn occur yet. Based upon the latest projected track, it remains too soon to tell whether Bertha will have a direct impact on the island nation.

The current thinking has Bertha beginning the turn towards the open (and much colder) waters of the North Atlantic and bypassing Bermuda to the east, but the latest computer model runs have shifted closer to Bermuda as the system has taken a noticeable westward turn in the past couple hours. Whether this is a direction change or a temporary wobble remains to be seen.

The bottomline is this. All residents living in Bermuda should be making their plans and preparations in the case that Hurricane Bertha should strike the island and pose a direct threat to the island nation. It looks like the United States will be spared from this storm.

Elsewhere in the tropics, we may have to watch the African coast, yet again, for potential tropical development later this week as several computer models have been hinting at a tropical wave that recently emerged off the African coast developing into a tropical depression in the Central Atlantic. I will monitor this situation as it develops.

Expect another update tomorrow.


BAMM Model has this storm not making that northern turn.

GFS has it making a curve and then stall over the ocean..

maybe it will make a loop with the gfs model...or maybe combine with that "tropical depression" that is suppose to form by monday..
Now the models say shear may not increase after all but there is still the potential for an increase in shear according to the NHC. Should reach that Cat 3 strength tomorrow morning.
Good night all!
THERE HAVE BEEN NO APPRECIABLE CHANGES IN THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE
OF THE HURRICANE DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. OBJECTIVE DVORAK
ESTIMATES APPROACHED 100 KT A FEW HOURS AGO BUT HAVE SINCE COME
BACK DOWN IN LINE WITH THE 00Z SUBJECTIVE ESTIMATES...WHICH SUPPORT
MAINTAINING THE ADVISORY INTENSITY AT 90 KT.
CCHS is there a model still showing a cut-off low spining up off the North/South Carolina coast in the next couple of days?
pssst... FISH STORM anything else was/is just wishcasting which is par for the course around here...

1245. franck
Computer models consider weather affecting Bertha, but not vice versa. Ergo Bertha's persistent westward drift, countering model consensus
Good night all!
I really love any hurricane, it makes my surfing at NJ so much better, even if it is a fish storm (excluding Bermuda).
1238,the waters north of bertha are warmer than where she is currently..I don't understand??
Question for those in the know:To the best of my recollection the BAM models have been consistant with a westward tract for Bertha for the past several days.
Is it unusual not to see some type of consensus or shift towards the other models over such a lengthy period of time?
1250. Melagoo
Bertha sure has us wondering fascinating storm to say the least
1238,the waters north of bertha are warmer than where she is currently..I don't understand??Action:
Might that area be over the Gulf Stream?
Evening everybody.

Just took a look at NHC (to get quick summary of the day). I notice Bertha had better presentation today. It still looks like it could sideswipe Bermuda, following the current movement. Hopefully it will curve further east as forecast. Nevertheless I agree Bermudans should be looking to their hurricane supplies - just in case.
BAM models typically perform best with shallow/weak systems. They emphasize low-level steering currents. Bertha is not a shallow weak system. If Bertha had continued to weaken instead of reviving today, the BAM models would be more accurate. But as long as Bertha is a strong, well organized storm, the BAMs will not work well.
94L by AM or in the PM that new wave out there that came off thats now in open water needs to be watch
1248. stillwaiting 11:14 PM EDT on July 09, 2008
1238,the waters north of bertha are warmer than where she is currently..I don't understand??

Bermuda sits in the middle of the Gulf Stream as it crosses towards Europe. It's how a coral island gets to be sitting on a mountain in the middle of the ocean . . .
1255,i know the water north of bertha is warm,cchhs weather man said they were colder,I beleave, and that area is not the gulf stream..
Don't know, but that's definitely why the NHC did not upgrade her to a Cat 3.
StSimonIslandGAguy
Much appreciated
Sargasso sea is in general quite warm, with the Gulf stream just a lil warmer at the western edge. But the Gulf Stream is well west of Bermuda, and is neither a factor now, nor will be in the near future.
thanks Medicroc :)
If she does weaken, wouldn't that make the BAMM model more accurate?
1263. JLPR
thats one big wobble to the west southwest then it jumped back to the northwest =P
Link
1260, well said !!
looks like something is impinging on it from the southwest. Is it possible that Bertha is interacting with the ULL east of Florida
Taz what are the coordinates for the wave that is just off of Africa?
1267, absolutely ,it may stall her!!
1270. AndyN
On the Atlantic Wide view thats a nice little left turn wobble by Bertha. The eye presentation is magnificent.
Bertha would have to weaken quite a lot--down to a tropical storm. Or get strongly sheared and have the low level center decoupled from the strong convection. There are several BAM models, and some do give more weight to mid and upper level steering. But as long as Bertha stays a hurricane other models will be more accurate.
Bertha has had a 6 thing going on tonight on IR. Talk of the next trough missing her. That ULL infront of Bertha has slowed considerablly & working the trough, as Bertha is catching up to the ULL.
1273. AndyN
NCOWX0man- I believe this wave in the last frame is the one TAZ is referring to:
Link
cool, andyn you were on the swat team , what a adrienaline rush you must have got sometimes!!!
slow blog tonight!!
wow this saw a loop of the was that came off the AFRICAN COAST that is now overe open water has a vary good spin too it
This morning you could see it, but now its getting much better.
1278. AndyN
stillwaiting- Yep it was fun. Now I am in charge of Homeland Security and responsible for all the equipment we took to NOLA and Lake Charles for Katrina and Rita response.
i be back on at 5am good night all


i be looking forward to seeing what are AFRICAN wave looks like in the AM
1278, America needs more people like you, thank you!!!..now back to bertha..
Greetings fellow bloggers. I think that Bertha will show us some unusual turns and moves in the next couple of days, but we cannot ignore the two major low pressure systems which pull the most organized system out to sea. Bertha has the stamina to reorganize quickly as she has demonstrated just recently, so she bears watching. If Bertha ignores the first system which is a weaker system, then she will get into warmer waters and prove a greater threat to Bermuda. Because of greater wind sheers near the United States we should be protected from any major systems approaching the east coast this year. The Gulf Coast is another story.
here is a update on how where doing so far

round 1

90L be came ARTHUR

91L went bust

92L be came BERTHA

93L went bust



i be keeping track on how many 90Ls be come name storm my next update when i show you this is when we start round 2 of INVEST
Unless, of course, the pattern changes by late august and September and the east coast trough is gone.
Just finished my blog update if anyone would like to view....Thanks.

TampaSpins Blog
1281, we have seen a trend of cold front's making it unusually far south consistentally thruout late spring/early summer, that should protect the east coast if this trend continues..
So Taz or anyone would be expecting Cristobal to appear from the wave that is emerging from Africa?
1287. JRRP
jaja
i think 93L will be Cristobal
I hope the east coast trough does last---but you can't count on that absolutely. There is a good chance it will---but also a good chance it won't!
and would make the eastern gulf coast and bahamas alot more vounerable...
I'm hitting the sack, night all!
I'm starting to wonder if some sw shear has started early on Bertha the way her convective pattern is. Oh well I'll see in the morning.
Because of greater wind sheers near the United States we should be protected from any major systems approaching the east coast this year. The Gulf Coast is another story.

The east coast has had persistent troughing this time of year numerous times in the past. Happened in 1995, 1998, 2000, 2003, and 2006. It is worth noting, however, that the only year in which the east coast didn't see a significant threat, or even a landfall, was during 2000. Simply put, troughing is quite normal for June and July along the east coast, and the pattern could change come August and September. And I think it will. The pattern changed last year after we had persistent troughing along the east coast for June and July.
Hey folks If your lonely or bored tonight the live webcast starts at 1am EST of the Jeffrey Bay world surfing tour. http://www.billabongpro.com/ The roaring 40s storms produces these beauties. Enjoy Slater is goiing for #9 Imagine nine world championships Federer Tiger Woods and Kelly slater.
Leftovers it's past your bed time......you get grumpy when your up late.....LMAO
1295. AndyN
Good night everybody. I'll be interested in checking out the waves coming off the African Coast tonite.
good night, and happy watching my friends!!
What impresses me about the internet is the world is alot smaller. Tonight Im watching surfing from South Africa tomorrow Dave Mathews Band concert from Winconsin I love it. Tampa you should of seen everyone jump me tonight. They were belittling me. I can handle it. Did you read it?
1299. AndyN
One more thing. The SST where the large wave is positioned just off the African Coast is 29 and the other one is near 28 SST. Is that normal this time of year?
1298. leftovers 12:20 AM EDT on July 10, 2008

No i did not see it how far back is it....
1299. AndyN 12:21 AM EDT on July 10, 2008
One more thing. The SST where the large wave is positioned just off the African Coast is 29 and the other one is near 28 SST. Is that normal this time of year?


Nope that is WAY above normal by 2-3 above

1302. AndyN
Thanks Tampaspin- I was thinking that was high. Maybe this is the development the GFS and UKMET were hinting at later this week into next.Also, looks like the waves are training across the continent. I noticed that AUgust- October, shear is supposed to be nonexistent off the coast of Africa.
I see nice convection starting to flare up around the next African wave. Might this we our next developing candidate?



my guess... very likely
hope so or im gonna have to find a new hobby lol
1305. 882MB
hey everybody,has anyone seen the latest GFS ooz run,has the disturbance in the atlantic stronger and it also shows bertha moving to close to bermuda!
This is a Low cloud cover view......anything in blsck is low clouds......you can see Bertha at the TOP left corner and look at the other waves....
Okay about 10 yrs ago or so we had a similiar setup. A slow moving storm near Bermuda. Steve Lyons said that this storm by sitting there actually was protecting the Carib because it was preventing these waves in the MDR regions from developing. I dont exactly know why he said this most likely dry air in that region around the south side of the storm notice the dry air tonight eating on those waves. Also the energy the storm is sucking in from the deep tropics. Anyway all the wishcasters jumped me. One even belittled me. I never told them Dr Steve Lyons was the one who taught me this. It was kind of fun Sure got alot of clicks. Hot here hot there in Tampa tonight?
1305. 882MB 12:32 AM EDT on July 10, 2008
hey everybody,has anyone seen the latest GFS ooz run,has the disturbance in the atlantic stronger and it also shows bertha moving to close to bermuda!


That does not surprise me ...read my blog..as all the BAM models have moved W.
1309. JLPR
That wave looks interesting we just have to wait and see if it still there in the morning
Look at the great sat shots you posted tampa see the energy being sucked up into Bertha. Deep in the tropics. I believe as long as Bertha is there the islands are safe.
enjoyed your blog Tampaspin
1307. leftovers 12:32 AM EDT on July 10, 2008

Ya, i went back and read...alot what you are saying is true but, not completely. Storms commonly do not do well within 700 miles from each other...so it all depends on the location..so everyone was sorta correct.
Steve Lyons,can be trusted 100% and I hold him in the highest regard as a met...remember john hope ..god bless his soul..
1311. aubiesgirl 12:37 AM EDT on July 10, 2008

Thank you Aubie
1315. JLPR


And were is Bertha?
looks like in Nova Scotia
1316. JLPR
I like the part of the islands are safe =P

But unfortunately that wave that is just off Africa doesn't even know Bertha exists =P
1315, you really think that front will clear florida,I don't think so!!!


NWS being hacked again?
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:


NWS being hacked again?


It was hacked??


Getting stronger!
I heard the last time something like that happened to the NWS, someone did.
You know someone made a crack on here something like this blog will go crazy when its hacked......wow....people do crazy things just to give others problems for no reason...life in America......lol
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
I heard the last time something like that happened to the NWS, someone did.


Thats gotta take skill....i think.
1320. Hurricanman 12:46 AM EDT on July 10, 2008

Looking stronger.....it has about 12 hours left until shear hit her then another 12 hours it gets better again.....up and down.
It really isn't a good idea to hack a computer system owned by the federal government...
Hackers use IP address pings....and their off and gone.
wouldnt say getting stronger...but holding her own...yes....i was going through some of the 144h models...bc i dont really trust anything much further out than that...do a few of the models stall her east of bermuda...and at least one of them trys to build the high again and build it west to the east coast...is that a possibility?
It would take alot of skill,plus you don't want to mess with our gov., they don't put up with that type of stuff and are zero tolarence..
TampaSpin:This is a Low cloud cover view anything in black is low clouds you can see Bertha at the TOP left corner and look at the other waves....


Hey TS This is a really neat image. So what's going on with Bertha? I see someone wrote she had took a little SW jog but not much of one.
I read your blog very good. I learn alot. Thanks,
Sheri
Guys Bertha shows a tendency again to move more westwardly than north-northwestward. Could this movement threaten the Bermudas?
1331. 882MB
I think everyone should take a look at the new GFS 00Z run,it shows the CENTRAL ATLANTIC ITCZ DISTURBANCE STRONGER AND AFFECTING THE ISLANDS AS A TROPICAL STORM ABOUT A WEEK FROM NOW AND ALSO HITTING THE BAHAMAS COMING TO CLOSE FOR COMFOURT HERE IN S.FL!
1325. Hurricanman 12:51 AM EDT on July 10, 2008
It really isn't a good idea to hack a computer system owned by the federal government...


Don't know how to hack anything but, to get hacked by the wife..lol...but to do so against the government i would think will be a big problem for someone.
Not really Tampa sure storms coexist but a stalled or slow mover in that same geographical location Bermuda prevent waves south and southeast from developing. Looks like the dry air is now preventing the wave at 30 from developing. Steve Lyons said yesterday to watch that wave leaving africa. I will explain myself further tomorrow too tired Speaking of Africa Im going to watch some surfing.
1298. leftovers

check out www.channelsurfing.net if you haven't already.... sounds like you'd love it! :)

nite fellow blogsters! :)
themore miss your circles take care
Quoting 882MB:
I think everyone should take a look at the new GFS 00Z run,it shows the CENTRAL ATLANTIC ITCZ DISTURBANCE STRONGER AND AFFECTING THE ISLANDS AS A TROPICAL STORM ABOUT A WEEK FROM NOW AND ALSO HITTING THE BAHAMAS COMING TO CLOSE FOR COMFOURT HERE IN S.FL!

Hey 882mb do u have a link for that?
TIA,
Sheri
Notice the BAM models are moving WEst i would say Bermuda should take precautionary steps.
did ev1 leave?
1329. catastropheadjuster 12:52 AM EDT on July 10, 2008

Sheri thanks.
Quoting TampaSpin:
This is a Low cloud cover view......anything in blsck is low clouds......you can see Bertha at the TOP left corner and look at the other waves....


As I recall, it is actually just the opposite. Everything you see in white in the low cloud product image is low clouds, and the black areas are high clouds.

Animation of low cloud product atlantic view.
Quoting TampaSpin:
1329. catastropheadjuster 12:52 AM EDT on July 10, 2008

Sheri thanks.

You welcome, Hey TS do u have a link for the GFS00Z run? Just wondering would like to look at it. If ya got time to do it.
Sheri
1342. RyanFSU
The 00Z GFS has definitely come to life, monster extratropical transition and Canadian maritime disaster. Full Size Image of maximum sustained wind. Other images here: FSU gfs weather maps

1343. 882MB
catostropheadjuster, heres the website:http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/00/model_m.shtmlthen u click on the first loop!
if that waves does develop it will not affect land..

well at least that is wat the long range GFS Model Shows..
TS & 882mb- Thank you.
sheri
1346. 882MB
you welcome.it looks like next week we might be talking about CRISTOBAL THREATNING THE ISLANDS!
Dont forget nightowls not to repost any posted images. thanks
1347. leftovers 1:08 AM EDT on July 10, 2008
Dont forget nightowls not to repost any posted images. thanks


Go to bed grumpy........LMAO
1349. auburn
wish I knew something about weather..I cant sleep tonight
Just for ya all information when you go to my blog at the top i have a link for a long range loop of the GFS.
1349. auburn 1:11 AM EDT on July 10, 2008

Drink a splash of Johnny Walker Black it always makes me sleepy.....my wife wants me to drink the whole bottle......lol
Surfing is on grumpy not me. If everyone says yes why not question it? I do politics too but not on a weather blog.
Bertha is getting stronger i suspect she is a Cat.3 now as the eye is smaller means she is spinning faster.
goin off to nite
good nite everyone
lets see tomorrow what new surprises does Bertha gives us
The eye of Bertha has shrunk in size, so i would suspect she is a CAT. 3 now.....smaller eyes spin faster..
It was a pleasure hanging out with you all,have a good night.
You might be right tampa looks alittle stronger to me. At the end of the season one of the measurements is total hrs of a major hurricanes. Might get a few later on this morning. Looks cold in S Africa surf is pumping 4 ft or so.
I read on a surfer blog tonight a buoy near the bahamas recorded 6ft at 13sec. I dont know about that. The 120 mile buoy offshore PT Canaveral still does not report nothing from Bertha http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41010
Im out for the nite all...nite leftovers...get some sleep...
anyone from Bermuda, i just updated my blog if anyone would like to see........

TampaSpins Blog Update
1361. auburn
Night Tampa
1361. auburn 1:45 AM EDT on July 10, 2008

Nite auburn
1363. njdevil

I love the whacky hops this storm takes. That funky SW spin it made earlier today, and now on that run from above, it just breaks straight north before going back on its way.
1364. denmar
Quoting TampaSpin:
anyone from Bermuda, i just updated my blog if anyone would like to see........

TampaSpins Blog Update


Great info, thanks Tampa!
so...pin hole eye? or is it just about to close up on us again Loop
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 10 JUL 2008 Time : 051500 UTC
Lat : 25:34:29 N Lon : 58:58:09 W

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.1 / 967.6mb/ 92.4kt

Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
4.5 4.3 4.3

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : -0.4mb

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 16 km

Center Temp : -10.3C Cloud Region Temp : -46.5C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
I think the eye is shifting. Boy, I got slammed by all of the PhDs on here that were certain this thing would be dead the night before last, and last night, but I said the SST anomalies (check the Penn State site) had a "burp" of hot water perenaturally headed just out ahead of Bertha, and that would be like an IV. I think I lost my $1 bet from several days ago predicting a split wave on the coast. I gave it 1/100 odds though, so no takers....LOL.
Thats some pretty serious reformation on the northern flank and a pair of gust fronts on the NE quadrant. I expect the eye to repop about 40mi WWNW here in a short bit, 2 hours or so...where's that Unisys satellite image that catches the alt basin all night? I can't find it...
Do you guys think that the NHC will at some point (i mean after its over or when they do the last report at the end of the season) increase Berthas windspeeds, because Both peaks of the last two rounds of intensification have fallen inbetween the advisories.
Hey hurrikanEB. Why are we still awake? hehe. I found my late night with Conan Sat image. Some interesting runs on the shear and vortices indexes 24 & 48 horus out re: the African waves and Bertha...and the forecast.Link
who knows... i was asleep for about an hour but then i woke up
Anyone here?? I need to vent!
what makes you say that the eye is going to jump?
here, tink
Ok....here's my issue. I am pretty new to this blog and site and I wandered into the weather chat to find two people cybering....gross. I wanted to chat about weather...not THAT!
Just a guess. Just a bump to the left, the ying is getting too big for the yang, would be the simple way to say it. Look at the 48 hour shear maps. Total dead zone for evil things to happen (see 171 marker) off the coast of Africa. The whole Bertha thing is soup then, but it looks to chew on Bermuda for a while. I think they are going to wake up with a jolt of adrenaline tomorrow!

img
src="http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/shr_48.gif" alt="" />
Tinkahbell, we've just met and I already have no idea what you're talking about. What weather is on your mind?

you can tell admin :)

I guess it is pretty late where you guys are....

and why not out them then! Give us some goss hehehehe I agree though, bit much here
Quoting Tejano72:
Tinkahbell, we've just met and I already have no idea what you're talking about. What weather is on your mind?


Nice to meet you...~smiles~ I went into the Weather chat and there were people in there talking about sex, not Bertha or anything weather related.
I stay away from the chat rooms, Im cyberclaustrophobic. I fear ASCII filled rooms. What about all the Pacific invests? Anything?
well ill take your guess then, because theres not much other info coming in right now
=)

tink, i didnt realize there was a chat thing until you pointed it out(im fairly new also)
Quoting Tejano72:
I stay away from the chat rooms, Im cyberclaustrophobic. I fear ASCII filled rooms. What about all the Pacific invests? Anything?


Curiosity killed the cat...I guess that will teach me not to wander into unknown waters...LOL
Oh my. Well. That'll warm up the water. If you still want images that post later than some, past other people's bedtimes, you can check the UNISYS sats or NASAs weather sats, if they aren't restricting access (again). I was flamed out of here by several people who predicted Bertha's early demise. The big question is how far west she'll scoot and whether Lobster will be 24 or 34$ a pound next month....

tinkahbell, Tejano72, ktymisty nice to meet you guys

either of you near the coast
That's hysterical. What's you see with the lights on? Anyway, any predicts on whether she'll pass E or W of Bermuda? I'll take those odds? 1 to 1? Where's Patrap and Drakoen and TampaSpin when you need them?
No, here in FTW TX, but I was born in Hurricane, WV. Why they named it Hurricane, you say? Because after one in NC, everyone moved there to avoid the next one. So that's the story...y'all?
Quoting HurrikanEB:

tinkahbell, Tejano72, ktymisty nice to meet you guys

either of you near the coast


Indirectly, now. I have the Delaware Bay between myself and the Atlantic. I grew up about 45 miles south of here about a mile from the ocean. Where are you located?
blockquote class='blogquote'>Quoting HurrikanEB:

tinkahbell, Tejano72, ktymisty nice to meet you guys

either of you near the coast


I'm in Australia - I watch your weather while you sleep ( it's 4.30pm ) I usually lurk and learn throughout the year and ask questions when the main gang ( experts ) are on.

I think Bermuda is going to be in for a rough few days, Bertha just keeps going west!
Penn State and LSU have excellent EarthScan labs, and sat access. If you can go right to UNISYS and NASA, why not? You just get raw feeds and data, nothing carved up and processed for you, though. I'm winking out for the night. I've got major dental tomorrow and need to count my Valium. Nice to meet you! Nice pics (of you?) there HurrrikanEB and Misty!
Bermuda can keep her! We don't want Bertha here. LOL - We already had a go 'round with a Bertha in 1996, I believe.
Im in Kingston, Ny about 90 miles north of New York City
Good luck with that dental work, Tejano. Nice to meet you. Vicodin works too. LOL
If you want to know where I live you can Google map me ( Springwood NSW Australia ) - in the beautiful blue mountains heritage national park :). In Sydney today its a cold day for us ( around 5-8 Cel ) and this is typically our coldest week. Perth is getting hit by a massive cold front and expect damage, and later the south east will be pounded - the fronts come from Antartica and are the the worst cold weather we get.....
1394. Fshhead
Evening All,

Anyway, any predicts on whether she'll pass E or W of Bermuda?

I pick East lol Will be close though..
ktymisty: They all told me that I was a "dolt" and that was impossible, on Sunday. Hmmm. My $1 longshot was that it would split into two waves, one to the GOM (this was on Sat) and one up the east coast. The response was, FISH STORM, won't make Bermuda, etc. but I sent the Penn State SST map and then a bunch of people ignored me. Oh well...you all have some fierce weather down under, and moreover, that "officially not a hurricane" South America hurricane, and the big spinups in the Pacific, I think, are due to the higher temps. Bertha started at a marginal SST to support a hurricane, and with temps going up, we are going to be over that min. temp more and more...
I dont have a photo sorry :(

I have a website - not weather related though - arty stuff :)
We may have to toss horseshoes on that one Fshhead. I agree, 40mi west sounds good.
ktymisty
Cool, i have relatives in australia...somewhere in Queensland i think

i find it amazing how these hurricanes just keep spinning and spinning 24/7
1395 - yeah, they can get feisty in here and I ignore them all when they do :) I sometimes think they get caught up in the science and forget the 'flow' but its cool, its a wonderful site and I learn so much
Night all....
Tejano72
good night.
i have to get ready to go too. i have to be up in 6 and a half hours ;(
Fshhead
i have to go now, but id still like to say hello

Hello
=)
and when everyone wakes up I'll be quietly lurking once more......Bertha needs to beef up her southern flank :)
1405. Fshhead
LOL Ahhh Hello & Goodbye Everyone..
Agreed. (retaping my glasses - haha - jsut joking). I lived in Costa Rica for all of 1999, that's as far south as I've been, but it was beautiful - yet somehow, boring. No spicy food, no spicy weather. So, since there weren't any tornadoes or hurricanes, I hit every volcano I could. A few small (3-4 Rchter) quakes, nothing that exciting. The volcanoes were amazing. I'm holed up at: www.fwculture.com/museumplace.htm for 9 years, running property mgmt. consulting, dad works for FEMA, uncle for NASA, I used to program for GSA back when they used COMPUTERS (LOL). They went green and are back on solar calculators and Abacuses (Abacusi?) now. Hurricanes in Australia and Antarctic fronts sound exotic to us. It is 91F outside right now at 1:54 am CST here. Yuck. The only fan spinning is my electric meter.
I too think it will be close for Bermuda
Ditto on Bertha's southern "flank". She's got a wobbly gait, too many Gin & Tonics.
1406 - what gets me is your hurricanes spin backwards :P
What ever will Michael Douglas and Catherine Zeta Jones do? They live on Bermuda! Calling TMZ... You'd think people on islands would just live in a painted concrete 2 story bunker with trailer lights and flamingoes out front. So much less to worry about. Just lock in all in upstairs, above the waves.
ktymisty
the sight looks pretty cool. that moon pic on the homepage is just jumping out at me
:-)

Tejano72
did you have friends/relatives in coasta rico or did you just decide to up and go for a year?
Thanks HurrikanEB

:grin:
ROTFL :p I think I just realized my hemispherical misogyny. I'm a cad. You know, the toilet took forever to flush in Costa Rica, and I thought it was just the pipes. Which way does it go on the equator?
Gotta take a break from here, have to run some stats for another site...nice to meet you guys and I'll be back :P
National Hurricane Center - Miami, Florida

Tropical Cyclone Outlook (0600z 10Jul)
=========================================
An area of disturbed weather extends from just south of Acapulco, Mexico soutward for a couple hundred miles. Development of this system.. if any is expected to be slow to occur as it moves slowly westward.

A second area of disturbed weather located several hundred miles south of El salvador and Guatamala remains disorganized. Development of this system..if any is also expected to be slow to occur.

Tropical Cyclone Development Potential
===================================
LOW (<25%)
nite im out...for real this time
=)

hopefully i'll have the oppertunity to chat with you two again
I was university'ed out. I just packed things and hopped on a plane. I found a job, auditioned and got into a mambo orchestra and teh symphony, taught English. I worked out well, actually, and was cheap. It isn't as cheap now, but the margin of safety over mexico (being stabbed with a lollipop stick 10,000 times in CR compared with ending up in a taco in Juarez, MX) makes it worth every penny. I have to say something about the weather, per the rules, so I will say, it rained an annoying amount, all the time. Everyting gets mildewy. I missed cotton underthings, like socks. I missed Tex-Mex and smuggled salsa whever I could, thankfully before they limited bottle size. I had two quarts of it in my carry on! That could never happen today!
See you manana, Hurrikan, ktymsty....
good night to the blog
000
WTNT32 KNHC 100833
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE BERTHA ADVISORY NUMBER 29
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008
500 AM AST THU JUL 10 2008

...BERTHA MOVING A LITTLE SLOWER TO THE NORTHWEST...

IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE THE EXTENT TO WHICH BERTHA COULD
IMPACT BERMUDA. INTERESTS ON THAT ISLAND SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF BERTHA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BERTHA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 26.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 59.4 WEST OR ABOUT 545 MILES...
875 KM...SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.

BERTHA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR. A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. BERTHA IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES...220 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970 MB...28.64 INCHES.

LARGE SWELLS AND HIGH SURF ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF
BERMUDA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

REPEATING THE 500 AM AST POSITION...26.0 N...59.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH
dont think they will get hurricane force winds, chance of some ts force winds though
I can't sleep so i am still up on the blog alone I guess.

But the cone of uncertain has been expanded for more western..

Bermuda keep an very close eye on this storm..

The wave coming of the coast of Africa looks a little better organized..



I am online as well
1424. pottery
Morning. Its 6:20am, at 11n 61w, and it is coming down in buckets here. Looks good on the sat. images too.
1425. KRL
Bamm model always has to be so independent of the others LOL.



just updated my blog..check it out.
Good morning fellow bloggers :-) It's 12.40 (6.40 EDT) here so lunch time soon. Bertha looks more or less like she did when I went to bed (around 3.15 am local time), no change in both advisories I missed except for forward speed. Seems like Bertha has enough of her rapid changes *lol*

I'll be on holidays for a couple of days so see you probably next week. D**n, I'll miss the exciting part deciding where Bertha will finally go.
1429. IKE
00Z ECMWF....has a system affecting the northern islands next weekend....Cristobal?

Link

1430. DDR
Good morning all,very heavy precipitation @10.5N 61W here in Trinidad.
Preliminary Extended Forecast Discussion
Nws Hydrometeorological Prediction Center Camp Springs Md
309 Am Edt Thu Jul 10 2008

Valid 12z Mon Jul 14 2008 - 12z Thu Jul 17 2008

The western atlantic continues to be the wildcard during the medium range period...with what appears to be the equivalent of an atmospheric traffic jam developing there...possibly involving bertha. The gfs and ukmet show more amplitude to the trough digging into the northeast...enough to kick bertha through the canadian maritimes by the beginning of day 6. The ecmwf and gem global...along with the 12z/09 ecmwf ensemble mean...block berthas exit to the north...and indicate an eventual fujiwara effect with the mid level weakness that develops off the east coast of the united states around day 3. Began to suggest such an interaction yesterday on the first set of preliminary medium range graphics...and with a continued shift of model consensus closer to this scenario...will follow suit with the new batch of preliminary fronts and pressures for days 3 through 7. Elsewhere...expect some energy to cut across the pacific northwest...but not enough to take a significant bite out of the heat over the interior. There will probably be enough westerly component to the deep level flow over the southwest to direct the monsoonal energy to the east of its mean climatological axis.


CISCO

Link
1432. pottery
Good morning, 456. Heavy stuff here now, a press of 1013, no wind. I assume its ITCZ action, but I have not looked at any of the info yet. Too early man, need to wake up.
IKE..yea

i believe it will develop
1434. pottery
Hi DDR, that lightening woke me up ..........
1435. IKE
GFS 06Z run shows a system near 40W next Tuesday...cruises it to the WNW...similar to the latest ECMWF run....has it going just north of the islands......

Link
1437. DDR
good morning pottery
same thing happened to me,i can't sleep with all that thunder,about an inch of rain here so far.
1438. beell
1436.
And the rest of the story...

BY
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE FLOW AHEAD OF A LARGE-
AMPLITUDE 500 MB TROUGH NEARING THE U.S EAST COAST IS EXPECTED TO
CAUSE BERTHA TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD WITH SOME INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED.
1439. IKE
Quoting beell:
1436.
And the rest of the story...

BY
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE FLOW AHEAD OF A LARGE-
AMPLITUDE 500 MB TROUGH NEARING THE U.S EAST COAST IS EXPECTED TO
CAUSE BERTHA TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD WITH SOME INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED.


Good!

Finally!
1441. beell
I hear ya IKE!
Let's drum up some strong shear for Bermuda!
1442. beell
1440.
Well, you know...just in case someone just tuned in and had not been watching Bertha like we have been watching lol

Accurate and balanced posting.
1443. IKE
She's now near...

26.2N
59.6W


She'll help the ACE #'s for 2008....
Whatever shear the NHC talked about has since decreased according to CIMSS and is now 5-10 knots once again. The cloud pattern of Bertha remains well-organized as well.

DVORAK T-NUMBERS REMAIN AT 5.0 CORRESPONDING TO 90 KT...WHICH IS
USED FOR THE ADVISORY INTENSITY. THERE HAS BEEN SOME EROSION OF
DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE
HURRICANE...PROBABLY DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF INCREASED
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND THE INTRUSION OF DRIER AIR.

In fact...if you look at the NASA imagery...deep convection is strongest in the SW eyewall.
Morning everyone!

Bertha will be moving into a region of higher wind shear according to the maps and Dvorak numbers indicate she's weakened a bit.

Here's an interesting infared scan from GOES that's supposedly shows surface winds:

wow is this looking well defined.....morning everyone.
Wind shear still low over Bertha. She has slowed a bit so she should be in low wind shear for about 12 hours or so...that is assuming shear in front of her does not decrease.

The cloud pattern of Bertha certainly isn't as ragged as it was starting to get last night before I went to bed. Convection was starting to wane and the CDO was starting to become less symmetrical.
Quoting extreme236:
In fact...if you look at the NASA imagery...deep convection is strongest in the SW eyewall.


Last night after the 11:00pm advisory she hardly had convection in her southern side. She looks alot better this morning.
I think the biggest reason why the ADT shows weakening and is so low right now is probably because of the eye temperature...which it registers at -24.6 degrees C
1453. IKE
Good morning....good coffee....


Found this interesting info from this mornings San Juan discussion.........

"Latest GFS model guidance continues to
suggests that an active tropical wave will approach to the local
islands next Tuesday...producing a general increase in shower
activity across the region. Looking well ahead...the model
guidances also suggests that a well defined low pressure system
will move very close to the forecast area by July 20-21.

Apparently the Tropic will continue very active. Stay tuned.".............


That's the one the ECMWF has on it's latest run....Cristobal?????


1454. IKE
Quoting HurricaneKing:
Quoting extreme236:
In fact...if you look at the NASA imagery...deep convection is strongest in the SW eyewall.


Last night after the 11:00pm advisory she hardly had convection in her southern side. She looks alot better this morning.


Maybe she had a facial while we snored.
I'd almost bet to you all that the ADT numbers would be 100-115 knots if that eye was in the positive temperature range.
Quoting IKE:
Quoting HurricaneKing:

Quoting extreme236:
In fact...if you look at the NASA imagery...deep convection is strongest in the SW eyewall.


Last night after the 11:00pm advisory she hardly had convection in her southern side. She looks alot better this morning.


Maybe she had a facial while we snored.


Hahahaha. She needed it.
Twin ULL to the West of Bertha and the BAM Tracks....
Looks like the invest is not materializing Hum? Off got the work done going to get some slides.
im going to bed.

take a look at my blog..

be back in like 3 hours with an update!

LATER!
1460. IKE
00Z ECMWF shows that system that the San Juan met talks about starting around 10N and 40W...next Tuesday....you can see it here on the north hemisphere run....on July 15th...then cruising WNW and strengthening....

Link
1458.

Isn't because of Bertha since her outflow isn't down that far.
good morning is anyone still online
1462.

I am still online but I'm not sure who else is
I think we maybe seeing signs of a West move alittle.
1465. IKE
Quoting Thundercloud01221991:
good morning is anyone still online


We're here.......you-tube-ing it..........
Quoting IKE:
Good morning....good coffee....


Found this interesting info from this mornings San Juan discussion.........

"Latest GFS model guidance continues to
suggests that an active tropical wave will approach to the local
islands next Tuesday...producing a general increase in shower
activity across the region. Looking well ahead...the model
guidances also suggests that a well defined low pressure system
will move very close to the forecast area by July 20-21.

Apparently the Tropic will continue very active. Stay tuned.".............


That's the one the ECMWF has on it's latest run....Cristobal?????




Amen to the good coffee.

Seen that on the GFS yesterday. Well defined low pressure with a well defined high pressure above. Looks to be a busy July indeed.
Wow, it is 5am in Cali. and still the temperature is in the mid 90's near Big Sur. The fires and smoke must be trapping the heat somehow. Yuck.
1468. IKE
1466....could be. I notice the high on that ECMWF run is strengthening westward...if something forms, doubtful it's a fish-storm.
this has got to be vexing for people in Bermuda
They have got to issue a watch today for that island if they don't then they are leaving them too little time to get ready
is Bertha going through EWR right now
1472. Patrap
UNCLASSIFIED

FNMOC WW3 Model: COAMPS Area: West Atlantic
Significant Wave Height (ft.) and Direction,BerthaLink
Good Morning All,

What happened to the model that forecasted a cut-off low forming off the Carolina coast and spinning up? Has the model dropped this or is it still showing up?
1471.

I dont think so. Although I haven't looked at microwave images to check...usually you can tell on the infrared imagery and I see no evidence of that yet. The eye has only been around for less than 24 hours so we shouldn't see one till maybe later today/tonight
1475. Patrap
wunderground Bermuda site with range and winds on the forecast days.

Civil Air Terminal, Bermuda Link

Bermudans are VERY Hurricane Savvy folks..
We're here.......you-tube-ing it..........

Be careful what you youtube.
1477. Patrap
WW3,Bertha,sig wave heights.Link
1480. IKE
Quoting WPBHurricane05:
We're here.......you-tube-ing it..........

Be careful what you youtube.


Just music.......
Quoting extreme236:
1471.

I dont think so. Although I haven't looked at microwave images to check...usually you can tell on the infrared imagery and I see no evidence of that yet. The eye has only been around for less than 24 hours so we shouldn't see one till maybe later today/tonight


then why is it filled in or is it a pin hole eye right now
1481.

That happens sometimes. It was doing that yesterday afternoon before the 5pm advisory. The next frame will probably show it gradually becoming more visible.
Looks like an EWRC Thundercloud.

Seems like Bertha may get close and comfortable with Bermuda.
the 12:15 infrared image shows the eye starting to clear out again.
Bertha looks amazing right now
raw numbers continue to rise CI# still falling
Looks like a west movement again in the last 2 frames.
1489. pottery
This is NICE. An inch and three quarters rain since 5:00 am. Still coming down, but not as heavy. In Trinidad. Its 8:45.am
BBL
12;15 image shows a fairly circular eye and deepening convection in the southern and southeastern quadrants of the cyclone. If/when that eye clears out she will look very impressive.


1490.

Corrections:

-Wind shear is light and should remain light for a couple days via most models.
-Convection in the southern quadrant has increased
-Bertha wasn't downgraded to a Cat 2...she remained a Cat 2.

Thats all I saw incorrect.
Betha the Buzzsaw...
Bertha is fluctuating in intensity. NHC is looking to decrease the intensity down to 80 knots unless something changes between now and 11am advisory (which has happened frequently). Maybe an EWRC could be in the works? I will be very interested in the NHC's discussion at the next advisory.

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 26.3N LONCUR = 59.8W DIRCUR = 315DEG SPDCUR = 8KT
LATM12 = 25.2N LONM12 = 58.6W DIRM12 = 316DEG SPDM12 = 8KT
LATM24 = 23.8N LONM24 = 57.0W
WNDCUR = 80KT RMAXWD = 10NM WNDM12 = 90KT
CENPRS = 977MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 120NM RD34SE = 75NM RD34SW = 60NM RD34NW = 90NM
Link

I think some dry air worked to her center. This has been happening her entire life cycle. She should start to fill back in soon.
Conditions should remain favorable for intensification today so she still has potential to become a major hurricane again. All hurricanes have fluctuations in intensity due to various reasons...usually EWRC's are the usual reason but I want to see if the NHC diagnoses that as the reason for her weakening, assuming they do drop her intensity at the next advisory.
7:45 AM

SAB 77 knots, 4.5 4.5
TAFB 77 knots, 4.0 4.5
New blog.
Reasoning for the EWRC is the westward wobble. Hurricanes tend to wobble more when a EWRC is underway. I do agree with the dry air as well.
1501. Patrap
Latest from the Experts on Bertha Link