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Bertha Spreading Rain to Puerto Rico and Virgin Islands, but is not Intensifying

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:06 PM GMT on August 02, 2014

Tropical Storm Bertha was racing west-northwest across the Northeast Caribbean at 21 mph on Saturday morning, spreading gusty winds and heavy rain showers across the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and islands of the Northern Lesser Antilles. A personal weather station at an elevation of 325 feet on the east end of St. Croix in the Virgin Islands recorded sustained winds of 47 mph, gusting to 56 mph on Saturday morning, along with 0.5" of rain. However, these winds were likely amplified by the surrounding terrain, and Bertha has not been generating sustained tropical storm-force winds (39+ mph) at any other land stations. A few peak wind gusts and rainfall amounts from the passage of Bertha through the islands:

Dominica: 43 mph wind gust, 1.38" of rain
Guadaloupe: 43 mph wind gust, 0.38" of rain

Visible satellite loops on Saturday morning showed that although Bertha was more organized than on Friday, the storm had only a limited amount of heavy thunderstorms. The misshapen structure of the storm suggested that dry air and wind shear continued to be a problem for it, and Bertha's lack of organization was also apparent on Puerto Rico radar, where very little low-level spiral banding was apparent. Wind shear due to strong upper-level winds out of the southwest was a high 20 knots on Saturday morning. These winds were driving dry air to the west of Bertha into the circulation, limiting heavy thunderstorm formation. An Air Force C-130 hurricane hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate Bertha Saturday evening.


Figure 1. Radar image of Tropical Storm Bertha at 9:52 am EDT Saturday August 2, 2014, from the San Juan, Puerto RIco radar.

Forecast for Bertha
Moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots is expected to affect Bertha through Monday morning, according to the 12 UTC Saturday forecast from the SHIPS model. With the atmosphere around Bertha quite dry, the shear will be able to drive dry air into Bertha's circulation, keeping any intensification slow. Passage over the rough terrain of the eastern Dominican Republic Saturday night and Sunday will disrupt the storm, and it is possible that Bertha will be downgraded to a tropical wave on Sunday. However, Bertha will still be capable of dumping heavy rains on the Southeast Bahamas on Sunday and Monday, as the storm turns north in response to a strong trough of low pressure over the Eastern United States. This trough should be strong enough to recurve Bertha to the northeast without the storm hitting the mainland U.S. coast. Wind shear will be lower and the atmosphere will be moister as the storm heads northwards, potentially allowing Bertha to intensify into a Category 1 hurricane over the open ocean.


Figure 2. Latest satellite image of Iselle in the Eastern Pacific.

Hawaii keeping an eye on Hurricane Iselle
In the Eastern Pacific, Category 1 Hurricane Iselle is headed westwards towards Hawaii, and could affect Hawaiin Islands by Thursday night. Satellite images show that Iselle has developed an eye, and the hurricane has a large area of heavy thunderstorms that are improving in organization. With wind shear a moderate 10 - 15 knots and SSTs near 28°C, Iselle is likely to remain a hurricane over the weekend. By Tuesday, the storm will encounter higher wind shear, drier air, and cooler waters of 26°C, which will induce weakening. The GFS and European models predict that Iselle will pass close to Hawaii Thursday night and Friday, but the storm may be close to dissipation by then. It's been a very active hurricane season in the Eastern Pacific, which has seen 9 named storms, 4 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes so far in 2014. On average, we expect to see 6 named storms, 3 hurricanes, and 1 intense hurricane by August 1 in the Eastern Pacific.


Figure 3. True-color MODIS image of Typhoon Halong from approximately 02 UTC August 2, 2014. At the time, Halong was a Category 3 storm with top winds of 115 mph. Image credit: NASA.

Typhoon Halong a threat to Japan
In the Western Pacific, Typhoon Halong has intensified into a dangerous Category 4 storm with 135 mph winds. Satellite loops show an impressively organized storm with a large eye surrounded by eyewall thunderstorms with very cold cloud tops. The storm is expected to head northwards and affect Japan's Ryukyu Islands on Wednesday night.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Gator I believe you're on the west coast of Florida, as am I (Sarasota). When is the last time you can remember winds out of the SE or E which is our typical summer pattern. It's been so dry here for almost a month now because of these W winds all the time. In the past with W winds we'd at least get morning storms. Any thoughts?
Quoting 996. Grothar:



So are you saying I should remove my Brooklyn Dodgers posters I have next to our wedding pictures?


:)
Quoting 978. Grothar:



I still am sick when the Dodgers left Brooklyn. Life has never quite been the same.


But Vin Scully still rocks after all these years I hear he was doing Dodger games when you were a lad.
Quoting 997. BahaHurican:

Morning all....



Looks like the Bahamas is a toy being fought over by two spoiled kiddies.... lol ...

Just having a cautious sun poke out here after an overcast morning....


Interesting...
I thought NHC said factor X was moving N.? Looks like it relocated South and West?
1006. LargoFl
whew that low coming out of florida is gonna flood south carolina...heed warnings folks..............
1007. beell
The morning sounding from Nassau is a little bit less than helpful in sampling the environment ahead of Bertha wrt to moisture and shear. It may be possible (but not a fact) to assume steering flow is from the S and SSE through a decently deep layer of the lower atmosphere-implying a continued track towards the NW/NNW.

Good Morning Class
1009. LargoFl
Quoting 1001. Klolly23:

Gator I believe you're on the west coast of Florida, as am I (Sarasota). When is the last time you can remember winds out of the SE or E which is our typical summer pattern. It's been so dry here for almost a month now because of these W winds all the time. In the past with W winds we'd at least get morning storms. Any thoughts?
guys we have a low coming into florida later this evening,get ready for alot of wind and rain today,tomorrow etc...bertha isnt our problem in florida..this low Is........
Quoting 1006. LargoFl:

whew that low coming out of florida is gonna flood south carolina...heed warnings folks..............


Thats North Carolina :p
1011. LargoFl
Quoting 985. ZacWeatherKidUK:

BULLETIN
HURRICANE ISELLE ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092014
800 AM PDT SUN AUG 03 2014

...ISELLE BECOMES A MAJOR HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.5N 132.8W
ABOUT 1495 MI...2405 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB...28.50 INCHES

Gonna be interesting to see its effect on Hawaii. I think its going to be a little more then what Flossie did
1013. LargoFl
Quoting 1010. VAbeachhurricanes:



Thats North Carolina :p
lol yeah sorry,good looking out.
1014. LargoFl
man i could use 3-4 inches of rain here..been really hot and dry by me...........................
1015. ncstorm

new pouch over Africa..


SYNOPSIS 2014080300

P11L
14N, 2E
700 hPa

ECMWF: Uncertain positions for the first two days. Distinct but fairly small and weak pouch for the next two days, but gets stretched into a NW-SE oriented trough and weakens. By 120 hours, there is a hint that the wave may be associated with a small circulation in the ITCZ.

GFS: Similar story as ECMWF, but with a stronger and more distinct pouch. Reaches max intensity at 36 hours while still over Africa. Weakens to just an OW max on the southern end of the wave at 120 hours. (Meanwhile, by 120 hours, another stronger ITCZ pouch has spun up to the east.)

UKMET: Yesterday’s smooth, easy track has been replaced by a very uncertain, erratic track for three days. Not until 84 hours does a discernible pouch suddenly “appear” at a low latitude off the African coast. Then, unlike the other models during the 4-5 day period, UKMET depicts a fairly distinct albeit weak pouch tracking to the west.

NAVGEM: OUTLIER! NAVGEM depicts P11L as the middle of three zonally-oriented pouches. With the western one being strongest early in the forecast period, then P11L, and then the eastern pouch is strongest by Day 5. P11L tracks westward fairly slowly, but it is easier to track than in the other models. Has peak OW as soon as it leaves Africa.

HWRF-GEN:

ECMWF -12.2 v700 120h
GFS -10.6 v700 120h
UKMET -9.3 v700 120h
NAVGEM -5.3 v700 120h
HWGEN ———— ———— ———h
1016. GatorWX
Quoting 999. Grothar:



We got back from a short trip to the Catskills in NY last week. I know exactly what you mean. No humidity and cool mornings and evenings.


My family is from Orange County NY. It's beautiful up there in the summer and fall. Spent many summers on the old farm my grandparents owned. Ever been to the stone castle church in Cragsmoor? Really nice views!


Anyone know why Recon data is not coming through?

NASA tracker indicates an AF plane.
1019. LargoFl
Nam has bertha coming fairly close to the outer banks tuesday.................................
What a Linear Line of Thunderstorms
1021. beell
Quoting 1005. congaline:

I thought NHC said factor X was moving N.? Looks like it relocated South and West?


The x factor has lost the upper level support of the small ULL that led to the surface trough which begat the x. The collapse of the ULL has been modeled fairly well. Perhaps a bit of upper troughing remains north of the Bahamas. It (x) will now have to rely on forced ascent ahead of the approaching CONUS longwave The sweet spot for this forcing is over southern Florida extending along the coast towards the Carolina's (both of them).









1022. LargoFl
Nam2 is the same track as Clp5..close or in NC..nothing set in stone yet folks..............
Quoting 1020. FIUStormChaser:

What a Linear Line of Thunderstorms



as opposed to a "non-linear" "line"? :p
1024. LargoFl
gee and More heavy rain coming next few days in NC....................................
AT 1115 AM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES A
WIDESPREAD AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN CONTINUING FROM AYNOR TO
WHITEVILLE AND ELIZABETHTOWN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 MPH. THIS
AREA OF RAINFALL IS PRODUCING RAINFALL RATES UP TO A HALF INCH AN
HOUR...WITH ISOLATED AREAS RECEIVING UP TO ONE INCH PER HOUR.

* COLUMBUS COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT HAS REPORTED THAT MANY ROADS
ARE FLOODED IN THE CHADBOURN AREA. IN ADDITION...EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT REPORTS THAT MANY OTHER ROADS ARE FLOODED ACROSS THE
WESTERN AND NORTHERN PART OF THE COUNTY INCLUDING... BILL
HOOKS...RED STORE ROAD AT PEACOCK ROAD...PRINCESS ANN ROAD...
PORTIONS OF HIGHWAY 904...AND PEACOCK ROAD OFF HIGHWAY 701.

BLADEN COUNTY 911 REPORTS THAT ROADS IN CLARKTON ARE FLOODED AS
WELL AS ROADS NEAR WHITE LAKE. IN ADDITION...THE BLADEN COUNTY 911
REPORTS THAT SOUTH PAGE ROAD WAS FLOODED.

The Florida "blob" appears to be moving inland/ashore.  That should give Bertha some room and she should start to jog again ever so slowly in a more Northernly direction; she might be starting to slow down a tiny bit and feeling the effect of the trof from what I can see on the most recent satt loop frames.  
Quoting 978. Grothar:



I still am sick when the Dodgers left Brooklyn. Life has never quite been the same.


My father was a bat boy for the Brooklyn Dodgers! They were a very generous group of players! Today, my brother and I fight over a single prized possession - a baseball signed by every player of the 1955 World Series championship team, including Koufax!

On a more topical note, STS was putting up the new El Nino info; for those of you who are writing it off, I would not be so quick to do so. It might start later than we originally thought, and not have as much of an impact on this season, but to write it off is, according to the models and those who actually study the phenomena, a bit too premature. The fact is with so many major typhoons in the WPAC, waters are being churned up, so the temps and anomaly readings are being impacted; however, another warm pool is indeed forming. And yes, I know that STS might be over-enthusiastic about his forecast, but once again, I still much rather read a blogger who is over-enthusiastic about weather than one who is over-enthusiastic about insulting those whose opinions might differ!
Quoting 951. Seflhurricane:

I have a feeling that Bertha will come further west than the models are indicating and the steering layer maps also indicate the same, another thing to contend with is the area of disturbed weather off the SE FLA coast . NHC should issue TS warnings for the Central Bahamas its going to be close
They had watches up all yesterday evening.... I note they are gone this a.m. Looks like BMO thinks NHC has this one right... looking at visible sat loop, it looks like Bertha is getting ready to head out of the Bahamas, and since the western side of the circulation is pretty much devoid of convection the central Bahamas is likely to be just okay without the warnings. They still have small craft warnings out anyway.
Quoting 997. BahaHurican:

Morning all....



Looks like the Bahamas is a toy being fought over by two spoiled kiddies.... lol ...

Just having a cautious sun poke out here after an overcast morning....
Looks more to me like Bertha's going to head up the Wern edge of that ridge rather than join up with that trough-induced entity. Meanwhile TCI and SE Bahamas will likely see some decent rain out of the SE side ...
1028. beell
Also some good upper divergence over the Florida peninsula between the longwave and the TUTT cell over the Yucatan.



SEFLA about to get hit with da bomb

1031. Grothar
1032. LargoFl
1033. LargoFl
Quoting 1031. Grothar:


lotta rain for you huh Gro.................
kaboom Gro...btw it just occurred to me this morning that you are the George Burns of WU Ground.
(that is a compliment!)
1035. will40
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
Anyone know why Recon data is not coming through?

NASA tracker indicates an AF plane.


nothing showing on the .tropicalatlantic sight either
1036. Grothar
Quoting 1016. GatorWX:



My family is from Orange County NY. It's beautiful up there in the summer and fall. Spent many summers on the old farm my grandparents owned. Ever been to the stone castle church in Cragsmoor? Really nice views!





That is where we were, in Campbell Hall.
1037. LargoFl
1038. Grothar
Quoting 1026. ProphetessofDoom:



My father was a bat boy for the Brooklyn Dodgers! They were a very generous group of players! Today, my brother and I fight over a single prized possession - a baseball signed by every player of the 1955 World Series championship team, including Koufax!

On a more topical note, STS was putting up the new El Nino info; for those of you who are writing it off, I would not be so quick to do so. It might start later than we originally thought, and not have as much of an impact on this season, but to write it off is, according to the models and those who actually study the phenomena, a bit too premature. The fact is with so many major typhoons in the WPAC, waters are being churned up, so the temps and anomaly readings are being impacted; however, another warm pool is indeed forming. And yes, I know that STS might be over-enthusiastic about his forecast, but once again, I still much rather read a blogger who is over-enthusiastic about weather than one who is over-enthusiastic about insulting those whose opinions might differ!


I don't think that baseball is worth much. If you send it to me, I will give you a dollar.
Quoting 1005. congaline:

I thought NHC said factor X was moving N.? Looks like it relocated South and West?
Bertha: Move ... get out the way .... move....
LOL
Looks like somebody pulled over into the slow lane to let the barreling behemoth go past....
Quoting 1018. Patrap:

2014 Pouch Tracking
Thanks, Pat. I've been needing to re-link to that...
Quoting 1035. will40:



nothing showing on the .tropicalatlantic sight either


May be related to some issues with the Air Force, don't really know......

NOXX01 KWBC 031253
TO ALL CUSTOMERS
.
AFWA SERVICE OUTAGE
.
THE AFWA SERVICE TO NWS HAS EXPERIENCED ANOTHER OUTAGE.
.
MILITARY OBS FROM AFWA NWS ARE AFFECTED UNTIL
SERVICE IS RESTORED.

Link
Looks like Bertha is reborn this morning. Some squally weather for the east bahamas.
1042. LargoFl
1043. Grothar
Quoting 1033. LargoFl:

lotta rain for you huh Gro.................


Not raining yet, but boy is it humid and dark.
Cmon, I thought we all knew NAM was the No Accuracy Model when it comes to Hurricanes?
Gonna call my friends and relatives in SE Florida in a minute to tell them that the Blob is not related to Bertha...........................
1046. GatorWX
Quoting 1036. Grothar:



That is where we were, in Campbell Hall.


Nice. They sold the farm in '99. Miss going up there.
1047. Grothar
Quoting 1034. Chicklit:

kaboom Gro...btw it just occurred to me this morning that you are the George Burns of WU Ground.
(that is a compliment!)


In age or humor? Goodnight, Gracie!
See the low level spin. This is the location where NAM says the low will form.
Can't totally trust what you always see on the loops; just spoke to my Mom & Dad in Miami (Miami Shores close to the Bay) and overcast and dark for them but no rain yet; that will change I am sure later this afternoon.
Rain rotating in. Tomorrow is forecast to be even wetter.....

1051. LargoFl
Looks like tuesday is going to be a bit stormy on the southeast coast..........................
1052. ncstorm
Quoting 1050. GeoffreyWPB:

Rain rotating in. Tomorrow is forecast to be even wetter.....




Geoff, are you in Miami?
1053. LargoFl
Quoting 1050. GeoffreyWPB:

Rain rotating in. Tomorrow is forecast to be even wetter.....


some models have that low coming into south florida tonight.
1054. sar2401
Quoting Chicklit:
SEFLA about to get hit with da bomb

Da Bomb is sure looking a lot more impressive than Da Bertha! ;-)
Hi nc....I live in Lake Worth. Next city south of West Palm Beach.
Quoting 1038. Grothar:



I don't think that baseball is worth much. If you send it to me, I will give you a dollar.


I can send you a picture of it for a dollar! Or, I'll even drive it over to you for a quick glimpse! ! I'm in Boca, so I'm assuming I'm not too far away from you!

Trust me, both my father and my brother would kill me if I even thought of selling it!
1057. LargoFl
gee imagine bertha and the Low joined off south florida...wow...................
Quoting 1043. Grothar:



Not raining yet, but boy is it humid and dark.
We're on the other side of the blob ... which surely looks much better now that it's hanging out there over the Gulf Stream....
Quoting 1044. Articuno:

Cmon, I thought we all knew NAM was the No Accuracy Model when it comes to Hurricanes?
But it does fairly well with trof split type entities, which is why pple have been giving it some attention. I'm not buying the merger scenario for now, but I wouldn't be surprised to see another TS form - behind Bertha - from that area near Miami ....
1059. tkdaime
The blob and bertha are connected now take a close look
1060. Grothar
Quoting 1056. ProphetessofDoom:



I can send you a picture of it for a dollar! Or, I'll even drive it over to you for a quick glimpse! ! I'm in Boca, so I'm assuming I'm not too far away from you!

Trust me, both my father and my brother would kill me if I even thought of selling it!


Hey, it was worth a shot. :)
1061. beell
That Rainbow IR...
:)

Quoting 1054. sar2401:

Da Bomb is sure looking a lot more impressive than Da Bertha! ;-)
Da bomb has da Gulf Stream....
1063. ncstorm
Quoting 1055. GeoffreyWPB:

Hi nc....I live in Lake Worth. Next city south of West Palm Beach.


oh okay..keep us abreast of the situation..some local newspaper was "hyping" the threat of heavy rainfall near your area..
1064. LargoFl

...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY...
...ISOLATED STREET FLOODING POSSIBLE...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS: NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS
THE REGION. THE MAIN IMPACT FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS.

WIND: WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORMS.

FLOODING: SLOW MOVING STORMS AND PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL COULD
RESULT IN PONDING ON ROADWAYS AND FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS.

TEMPERATURES: THE HEAT INDEX WILL BE NEAR 100 DEGREES ACROSS
PORTIONS OF HENDRY...GLADES...AND INTERIOR COLLIER COUNTY.

WATERSPOUTS: THERE IS A CHANCE OF WATERSPOUTS ACROSS THE GULF AND
ATLANTIC WATERS TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED EACH DAY WITH THE PRIMARY RISK BEING LIGHTNING, GUSTY
WINDS, AND ISOLATED STREET FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WIDESPREAD SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED, HOWEVER
INDIVIDUAL SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT HIGH WINDS AND
FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN MIAMI.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
MIAMI WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIAMI.

Quoting 1047. Grothar:



In age or humor? Goodnight, Gracie!

Humor of course...George is/was ageless!
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
955 AM EDT SUN AUG 3 2014

.UPDATE...
THE LATEST FORECAST PACKAGE HAS BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT THE LATEST
OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS AROUND THE AREA THIS MORNING AND TO
INCREASE THE RAINFALL CHANCES FOR TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. THE
MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA AND NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS
DEVELOPING ALONG A CONVERGENT BOUNDARY OFF OF THE SE FLORIDA COAST
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS. THE LATEST HRRR CYCLE SHOWED THIS
COASTAL ACTIVITY SHIFTING WESTWARD THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
EARLY EVENING PERIOD, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE EAST COAST AS THE
TROUGH SHIFTS WEST AND THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW VEERS TO THE SW.
PROVIDED THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVERAGE ALONG THE EAST COAST...IT
MAY TAKE LONGER INTO THE AFTERNOON BEFORE THE EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE DEVELOPS. THIS COULD DELAY THIS COASTAL ACTIVITY FROM
SHIFTING WESTWARD WELL INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. IF THE HRRR
ENDS UP VERIFYING, LOCALIZED FLOODING CAN`T BE RULED OUT LATER
TODAY OVER THE EAST COAST AND METRO AREAS CONSIDERING THE RECENT
ACTIVITY AND THE SATURATED GROUNDS. 85/AG

Quoting 1003. JohnLonergan:



But Vin Scully still rocks after all these years I hear he was doing Dodger games when you were a lad.



http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0toCMwEBwLo

Vin Scully also called the 1986 world series when my Metsies pulled off the miracle comeback in Game 6. "Behind the bag!..."
1068. LargoFl
Quoting 1061. beell:

That Rainbow IR...
:)


some flooding being reported in the keys this morning
Quoting 1063. ncstorm:



oh okay..keep us abreast of the situation..some local newspaper was "hyping" the threat of heavy rainfall near your area..


So far today, not bad. Some rain in the morning, but nothing near the severe level. Looks like you'll be getting in on the fun (still) in a few days.
Quoting 1057. LargoFl:

gee imagine bertha and the Low joined off south florida...wow...................
This is actually a pretty spectacular show as is.
Quoting 1069. GeoffreyWPB:



So far today, not bad. Some rain in the morning, but nothing near the severe level.

I hope it stays south.
I have to play 18 holes at 4 p.m.!
Too hot for midday so we opted for later.
1072. beell
Quoting 1068. LargoFl:

some flooding being reported in the keys this morning


I don't mean to minimize the precip impacts, Largo. And coverage should only increase with some daytime heating and perhaps very slow storm motion. But the perception gained from the the colorful IR seems quite different from radar.

It's probably time for me to go do something.
:)
NAM has been suprisingly accurate with Bertha so far.
"If" a coastal low forms and combines with Bertha, the NAM will be the model that forecasted it from the start.
Expecting modest intensification today.

Bertha is currently in the most conducive part of the Atlantic basin for intensification.

Quoting 1070. BahaHurican:

This is actually a pretty spectacular show as is.



Where are you Baha? Underneath any of that rain or in between Bertha and the Bahama Blob?
Quoting 1072. beell:



I don't mean to minimize the precip impacts, Largo. And coverage should only increase with some daytime heating and perhaps very slow storm motion. But the perception gained from the the colorful IR seems quite different from radar.

It's probably time for me to go do something.
:)
But u r right, master Beell... I like rainbow for looking at cloud heights, but it's not a terribly good view if you are interested in precipitation .... lol...
Quoting beell:


I don't mean to minimize the precip impacts, Largo. And coverage should only increase with some daytime heating and perhaps very slow storm motion. But the perception gained from the the colorful IR seems quite different from radar.

It's probably time for me to go do something.
:)



Radar has been showing storms parked over the middle Keys for a long time.
Quoting 1075. GeoffreyWPB:



Where are you Baha? Underneath any of that rain or in between Bertha and the Bahama Blob?
I'm on the little eyeshaped island just at the eastern edge of the cloud cover [near img centre]

Nothing happening precipitationwise here so far. I don't expect to get anything from Bertha, either.
1079. sar2401
Quoting tkdaime:
The blob and bertha are connected now take a close look
No, they're not.
1080. Grothar
Quoting 1055. GeoffreyWPB:

Hi nc....I live in Lake Worth. Next city south of West Palm Beach.


I didn't know you were that close.
1081. beell
Quoting 1078. BahaHurican:

I'm on the little eyeshaped island just at the eastern edge of the cloud cover [near img centre]




All this time, Baha-I was not sure where in the Bahamas you were. Got it.
Thanks!
Quoting 1072. beell:



I don't mean to minimize the precip impacts, Largo. And coverage should only increase with some daytime heating and perhaps very slow storm motion. But the perception gained from the the colorful IR seems quite different from radar.

It's probably time for me to go do something.
:)


I learned from Grothar to always post the scariest looking satellite and radar images to keep the blog entertained. :)
Quoting 1074. Stormchaser2007:

Expecting modest intensification today.

Bertha is currently in the most conducive part of the Atlantic basin for intensification.




She isn't, she has some high-moderate shear over her at the moment:



I would say the Western Caribbean/Southern Eastern GOM is the most conducive place for the moment. Bertha should be moving into some 29-30C water later today and shear should start relaxing a bit. So I think Bertha will put on a good show tonight.

so much rain coming to south fl
I believe the heavy rain that is currently off the coast of S. Florida will get pulled up into the Low forming off the coast of N.E. Florida.

See location of the low in 18 hours.

I was just mountain biking at Virginia Key in Miami and you can see the bahama low to the east. Wasn't raining there but it was storming and lighting out in the ocean.
Quoting 966. Grothar:

As of now, the models are all in agreement that Bertha will move North then NE






My Tuesday morning waves are being created right now by Bertha. Should be waist-shoulder, 12 second groundswell at Wrightsville. Will take about 48 hours to travel. My rule of thumb is swells travel roughly 5 degrees latitude in 24 hours.

An oceanographer named Ricky Grigg shared that knowledge with me when I was a young undergrad trying to figure out how long a potential swell in Tahiti would take to get to the south shore of Oahu. I was checking out the maps in the UH Marine Sciences building. RIP Dr. Grigg.
Quoting 1081. beell:



All this time, Baha-I was not sure where in the Bahamas you were. Got it.
Thanks!
Lol.... But every day I say, "Here in Nassau..." .... lol ...

I know it is really hard to keep track of all the different locations of bloggers, even the regular ones. I have a pretty good fix on most of the Caribbean bloggers, and on the regular S FL ones like Gro and Geoff, but other than that only a few others I recall... Tampa area, the Carolinas... Pat and Kori, a couple TEXans... AND sar... lol ...
This time tomorrow (24 hours). We've got to separate lows getting ready to join forces.

1090. Grothar
Quoting 1082. GeoffreyWPB:



I learned from Grothar to always post the scariest looking satellite and radar images to keep the blog entertained. :)


Now Geoff, you know I would never do that.

1091. sar2401
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


I learned from Grothar to always post the scariest looking satellite and radar images to keep the blog entertained. :)
But what about the radar and satellite images out by that Publix store? They've always been pretty scary. :-)
1092. beell
Recon is working. Currently skimming along at 500'!
1093. beell
Quoting 1089. Sfloridacat5:

This time tomorrow (24 hours). We've got to separate lows getting ready to join forces.




Bertha's best bet is to stay clear of stronger SW shear that should be located along the coast..
Link

Fake rain at Publix. Now you know the rest of the story. LOL
As Scott was showing, Bertha (absorbed the coastal low) and she isn't that far offshore of the Outerbanks.

1096. sar2401
Quoting BahaHurican:
Lol.... But every day I say, "Here in Nassau..." .... lol ...

I know it is really hard to keep track of all the different locations of bloggers, even the regular ones. I have a pretty good fix on most of the Caribbean bloggers, and on the regular S FL ones like Gro and Geoff, but other than that only a few others I recall... Tampa area, the Carolinas... Pat and Kori, a couple TEXans... AND sar... lol ...
Well, I'm glad you remembered where I live, since I usually start my weather posts with "Here in SE Alabama...". :-) It would be amazing if, someday, when the staff here is done moving icons around and breaking things that work, if we could ever have the option of having the user location after the user name in the top line. Since that option has been available in a lot of blog software since about 2000, it must be very difficult to emulate, but hope springs eternal...
1097. GatorWX
Click for loop
Quoting beell:


Bertha's best bet is to stay clear of stronger SW shear that should be located along the coast..


Bertha's has been and still is a mess of a tropical system. But she is forecasted to pull herself together once she gets to higher latitudes. She will most likely have a short burst of intensification at that time.

Bertha is really just something to watch for weather geeks and eastcoast surfers. The average person isn't concerned in the least about the system

Then we can just say go bye to Bertha.
1099. beell
Quoting 1088. BahaHurican:

Lol.... But every day I say, "Here in Nassau..." .... lol ...

I know it is really hard to keep track of all the different locations of bloggers, even the regular ones. I have a pretty good fix on most of the Caribbean bloggers, and on the regular S FL ones like Gro and Geoff, but other than that only a few others I recall... Tampa area, the Carolinas... Pat and Kori, a couple TEXans... AND sar... lol ...


Pure laziness on my part. I always treated "The Bahamas" as a single entity (I've been to Freeport, fwiw). Kinda like "Hawaii".
1101. Grothar
First rumbles of thunder and getting windy and light rain beginning. Birds are flying north.

Blob just took a big jump west/

1102. 7544
Quoting 976. Grothar:

The birds are very quiet.




that fl blob looks like it wants to head more west to u grother ? u might get ur own bertha lol
Just starting to rain here in Northeast Broward county. Dark and breezy.
Looks like Bertha and the Blob are trying to hold hands.
ASCAT mostly missed..

1106. hydrus
Quoting 839. SLU:



The CFS nailed Bertha very early.
Yep...And the CFS has more activity coming, and one or two being large systems. Most appear to stay away from the U.S mainland, but the Northern Antilles may be a much different story. Other points of interest is that the MDR will still have dry and sinking air, which will keep storms weak until they enter the Central Caribbean ( if they get there at all ). The home grown variety will have to be watched too, as the model indicates two more such storms forming..
1107. Grothar
Quoting 1104. avthunder:

Just starting to rain here in Northeast Broward county. Dark and breezy.
Looks like Bertha and the Blob are trying to hold hands.


hey, av. I forgot we are neighbors. Looks ominous out, doesn't it.
It is coming down big time! so much rain! :)




1109. GatorWX
Le Blob and Bertha have official joined their convective fields, fun stuff!
Tropical Storm Bertha is steadily organizing as shear lessens and the environment becomes more moist. This should become a solid Category 1 hurricane as it recurves east of the United States.



Iselle is also becoming better organized after attaining major hurricane status a while ago. The eye is warming on recent frames despite somewhat weaker eyewall convection. This should pose a threat to Hawaii as a moderate tropical storm.



Invest 97E is battling strong easterly wind shear at the present time, but conditions are expected to become much more conducive over the next day or two. This has a real shot, I think, at becoming the next major hurricane in the East Pacific. Indications are that it will threaten Hawaii eventually, and perhaps as a somewhat potent storm.

Blob going to move into Southern Florida today? Bertha is gaining on it fast and will start to feed herself on the blob. Just wondering if Bertha will feel the pull of the blob and end up a little closer to the OB than models are showing?
1113. GatorWX
It should definitely be a show watching these three interact in the next two days.

Although these storms don't appear to be immensely powerful, there is the possibility emerging of dangerous and destructive flooding somewhere on the EC. Many areas are already saturated. Let's hope this mess quickly gets out of here.

Thoughts of Floyd. I was in Westchester NY for Floyd. It was crazy.
Oh hey, this guy sounds familiar. ;)

@weatherchannel 3m
Congrats to our @wxgeeksTWC Geek of the Week Levi Cowan! He is a student who created the websiteTropical Tidbits.

Link
Quoting 1115. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Oh hey, this guy sounds familiar. ;)

@weatherchannel 3m
Congrats to our @wxgeeksTWC Geek of the Week Levi Cowan! He is a student who created the websiteTropical Tidbits.

Link


Wooohooo! Congrats!
Quoting 1101. Grothar:

First rumbles of thunder and getting windy and light rain beginning. Birds are flying north.

Blob just took a big jump west/




Trying to escape a hungry Bertha perhaps, but she's totally assuming the role of the predator in this scenario, and that blob/wannabe Cristobal what-have-you is the prey. The worst is over for Bertha, now she's going to reward us for bearing her at her worst.
Quoting 1115. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Oh hey, this guy sounds familiar. ;)

@weatherchannel 3m
Congrats to our @wxgeeksTWC Geek of the Week Levi Cowan! He is a student who created the websiteTropical Tidbits.

Link


You beat me to it. Congrats Levi.
Quoting 1101. Grothar:

First rumbles of thunder and getting windy and light rain beginning. Birds are flying north.

Blob just took a big jump west/





Perhaps a little spin off of key largo.
1120. beell

Current 850 mb (left), and 500 mb (right) CIMSS Relative Vorticity
(click for larger images)


Some mis-alignment (Bertha) remaining with this product @ 15Z.
Quoting 1111. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Tropical Storm Bertha is steadily organizing as shear lessens and the environment becomes more moist. This should become a solid Category 1 hurricane as it recurves east of the United States.



Iselle is also becoming better organized after attaining major hurricane status a while ago. The eye is warming on recent frames despite somewhat weaker eyewall convection. This should pose a threat to Hawaii as a moderate tropical storm.



Invest 97E is battling strong easterly wind shear at the present time, but conditions are expected to become much more conducive over the next day or two. This has a real shot, I think, at becoming the next major hurricane in the East Pacific. Indications are that it will threaten Hawaii eventually, and perhaps as a somewhat potent storm.




Could the blob that's effecting Florida possibly aid Bertha?
1122. LargoFl
Florida weather blog.....................................Link
Quoting 1107. Grothar:



hey, av. I forgot we are neighbors. Looks ominous out, doesn't it.
Yes, pouring now and some thunder here. A very Blobby Sunday.
1124. hydrus
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
1126. ncstorm
the 12z CMC unlike the Navgem develops the Florida blog and but Bertha like a woman with a man overtakes potential Cristobal and heads NE but like the Navgem has come west with Bertha..





1127. OneDrop
Quoting 1087. HaoleboySurfEC:



My Tuesday morning waves are being created right now by Bertha. Should be waist-shoulder, 12 second groundswell at Wrightsville. Will take about 48 hours to travel. My rule of thumb is swells travel roughly 5 degrees latitude in 24 hours.

An oceanographer named Ricky Grigg shared that knowledge with me when I was a young undergrad trying to figure out how long a potential swell in Tahiti would take to get to the south shore of Oahu. I was checking out the maps in the UH Marine Sciences building. RIP Dr. Grigg.
Ricky Grigg, one of the pioneers of big wave surfing!! Also a great oceanographer. His books are amazing and he was instrumental in creating Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument, larger than all the national parks in the U.S. combined. They cracked his mold when they made him and you are truly blessed to have been able to know him and absorb some of his knowledge. On a side note, I'm here in Ormond Beach, Fl. and I just surfed a nice waist to chesat session. More to come as she slides up the east coast and shoots her swell at us. Happy Surfing my brother!!
Quoting Abacosurf:



Perhaps a little spin off of key largo.


Definitely a spin there. I still think the spin off N.E. Florida is the one that's going to develop first or at all.

1129. hydrus
<
1130. GatorWX
*Notice the bow to the clouds west of developing low off GA/SC coasts.



This is getting very complex atm.
Note the circulation off the N.E. Florida coast. It is becoming more established.
Quoting GatorWX:
*Notice the bow to the clouds west of developing low off GA/SC coasts.



This is getting very complex atm.


Yes, this is the spot the NAM model has been showing for the coastal Low to form.
Already a nice spin developing in that location.
1133. FBMinFL
Quoting 1115. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Oh hey, this guy sounds familiar. ;)

@weatherchannel 3m
Congrats to our @wxgeeksTWC Geek of the Week Levi Cowan! He is a student who created the websiteTropical Tidbits.

Link


Wouldn't be shocked to see Levi courted by TWC or WU in an official capacity someday.
That's a nasty line of storms just south of the Keys. I'm sure it is messing up some offshore fun today.
1136. SLU
Quoting 1106. hydrus:

Yep...And the CFS has more activity coming, and one or two being large systems. Most appear to stay away from the U.S mainland, but the Northern Antilles may be a much different story. Other points of interest is that the MDR will still have dry and sinking air, which will keep storms weak until they enter the Central Caribbean ( if they get there at all ). The home grown variety will have to be watched too, as the model indicates two more such storms forming..



I wouldn't be surprised since we're in August. It won't be long before there's more action.
1137. vis0
Quoting 1003. JohnLonergan:



But Vin Scully still rocks after all these years I hear he was doing Dodger games when you were a lad.
First & Foremost, may Mr. Gruberg Rest in Peace he was one of the best Humans in my lifetime.

Grothar you might want to watch (The Grube Tube began in the mid 1970s, LIVE weekly for over 30 yrs)


i play (so to speak) black-tooth* or white-fang*, (though i am no where near (understatement) as creative as the Soupy originals).

* meaning i'm behind the cam making zilly remarks.