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Bertha slowly intensifies, continues west-northwest

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 12:22 PM GMT on July 04, 2008

Tropical Storm Bertha has slowly intensified overnight, with new heavy thunderstorm activity building up around the center. Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) are now slightly below the threshold of 26°C considered beneficial for tropical storms, and this is limiting Bertha's intensification. This morning's 4:01am EDT QuikSCAT pass revealed top winds of about 30 mph, but the satellite was not able to reliably detect Bertha's strongest winds, since QuikSCAT does poorly in heavy rain. Bertha's current intensity is based mostly on satellite imagery of the cloud patterns. The storm is under about 10 knots of wind shear. Bertha should continue to slowly intensify today.


Figure 1. Track chart of all Atlantic tropical storms that have formed east of 40°W longitude since 1851.

The forecast
Not much has changed in the forecast, with all of the computer models foreseeing a west-northwest track into the mid-Atlantic over the next five days, with a possible recurvature to the north by the end of the period. Whether this recurvature takes place depends on how strong Bertha gets. A larger, stronger storm will be more likely to "feel" the approach of the trough of low pressure expected to recurve Bertha, which a shallower, weaker storm might be able to avoid recurvature and continue west-northwest. Wind shear is expected to remain below 10 knots the next three days, then increase to 30-40 knots by day five, according to the GFS model, when Bertha hits a branch of the Subtropical jet stream. The GFDL model does not go along with this high shear forecast, and makes Bertha a Category 2 hurricane that begins recurving to the east of Bermuda. In contrast, the HWRF model keeps Bertha a weak tropical storm for the next six days. Suffice to say, there is a lot uncertainty in the long range intensity forecast for Bertha!

The hurricane season of 2008 sets a new record
Bertha's at 25° West longitude is the farthest east a tropical storm has ever formed in the Atlantic so early in the season. Reliable records of Eastern Atlantic storms go back to 1967, the beginning of the geostationary satellite era. It's remarkable that no other early July storm even comes close to matching how far east Bertha formed (Figure 1).

Is the formation of Bertha a harbinger of an active hurricane season?
Probably. According the the Hurricane FAQ, "as shown in (Goldenberg 2000), if one looks only at the June-July Atlantic tropical storms and hurricanes occurring south of 22°N and east of 77°W (the eastern portion of the Main Development Region [MDR] for Atlantic hurricanes), there is a strong association with activity for the remainder of the year. According to the data from 1944-1999, total overall Atlantic activity for years that had a tropical storm or hurricane form in this region during JJ have been at least average and often times above average. So it could be said that a JJ storm in this region is pretty much a "sufficient" condition for a year to produce at least average activity."

Elsewhere in the tropics
A tropical wave (93L) that passed through the Lesser Antilles Islands Wednesday night is now in the central Caribbean and is very disorganized, thanks to high wind shear. This wave is not expected to develop, and no computer models are predicting development anywhere else in the Atlantic over the next seven days.

I'll post an update Saturday morning. Happy 4th of July weekend!
Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Re: 1498

Well, think of it like this- A week ago ALL of the stations even including AccuWeather were saying this thing was goin' right out to sea w/o affecting anywhere at all. You're Miami guy may simply not give much credit to the models as others do. The weather media is a very delicate thing. Panic and worry is always avoided- to the last sec
1502. Drakoen
1497. moonlightcowboy 3:25 AM GMT on July 05, 2008
1477, 1481. LMAO, is NOT my map. It's the current map CIMSS is using. Hey, we all know the sst maps are all different.

And, anyways, I didn't have an exact time frame for finding warmer waters either. I simply said 2-3 days before finding warmer waters. The FACT is Bertha is presently in cooler waters and will remain that way for some time yet, unless it makes a motion wsw (not very likely). Having said that, a "weaker" system will likely continue to drift west and miss the second weakness. That's all I'm saying.

Take a chill pill Drak, JP, LMAO, I'm not predicting a CAT 5 landfall. Geeeesh.


lol it's just that SST maps from reliable sources are quite different from the cimss.
1503. JLPR
ah lol I didnt use shutters for neither Georges or Jeanne lol
Anyway, I'm going to sleep now. This has been a very busy day for me personally and on this blog.. goodnight everyone
1505. JLPR
buenas noches Weatherfreak =)
Boy444
this is what he posted....
1439. Relix 10:59 PM EDT on July 04, 2008
Geesh you guys need to stop the "NHC doubting", they are the pros, they studied for this type of thing. I sense wishcasting in some posts, don't. The system is going on the forecasted track, maybe a bit more south or west, but nevertheless its inside that cone. It will not hit the northern islands and will probably not reach the US.


I don't recall seeing anyone say it was hitting anywhere in the CON US. So where is the wishcasting he was talking about....wow
Well, good night all! It will be interesting to see what the picture will be tomorrow morning. If it continues moving west at this clip, there will need to be somewhat significant changes to the projected track. But, of course, being so far from any land, we have ample time to watch Bertha and see what it will do.
1508. K8eCane
>HERES MY PREDICTION
this storm is gonna threaten south fla hit the keys and then on into the gulf making second landfall on louisiana texas border
jmho
Bertha doesnt know what she wants do just quite yet...but i have a feeling by sunday it will be all the more clear
i hear you flweatherfreak91..i feel, personally, i like to be informed. hence why i am on this board. here i get real talk. thanks for your reply.
1502. LOL, Drak. SST maps and the word reliable hardly go in the same sentence together. Ask SJ, he demonstrates that SST maps are all over the place. And, I wouldn't call the CIMSS site "unreliable", Drak. LOL

Again, my point is, and you can verify this: Bertha is in cooler waters now and will continue to stay in cooler waters for at least another day, likely more. That being said (again), Bertha is not likely to intensify and could possibly weaken. A weaker storm drifts more to the west and will likely miss any weakness and not feel the poleward pull as much.

And, that all points to a likely shift in the track and landfall becomes more imminent.

Simple observation and math.
i know its your opinion K8eCane..but I live in so. fl..just wished all storms were fish ones.
ok - i'm a dork - took my teenagers to the house next door to tp it. Had a GREAT time. oh...put up about 10 signs in the front too that the house is for sale. Not bad for 40ish.

Good EVENING folks..what's up that's new?
No NO NO i live in Louisiana this storm isnt making it anywhere near the gulf keep dreaming! haha
i live in south FL too but ive come to the reality that our state sticks out like a sore thumb in the tropics
1511. moonlightcowboy 11:33 PM EDT on July 04, 2008

Dam MLC you know that math thing...thata pretty good stuff.....ROFLMAO
Hey MLC.....Happy 4th of July, Let Freedom Ring!!
1518. Drakoen
Quoting 1510. moonlightcowboy:
1502. LOL, Drak. SST maps and the word reliable hardly go in the same sentence together. Ask SJ, he demonstrates that SST maps are all over the place. And, I wouldn't call the CIMSS site "unreliable", Drak. LOL

Again, my point is, and you can verify this: Bertha is in cooler waters now and will continue to stay in cooler waters for at least another day, likely more. That being said (again), Bertha is not likely to intensify and could possibly weaken. A weaker storm drifts more to the west and will likely miss any weakness and not feel the poleward pull as much.

And, that all points to a likely shift in the track and landfall becomes more imminent.

Simple observation and math.


I suppose so.
1517. Same to you, GCD! Neighbors nice fireworks show going on right now outside my window. Quite colorful. Happy FOURTH to you, too! God bless America!
Evening all :~)

Thanks for the reference mlc!
Hello Mel
impressive wave behind Bertha
Link
And, I used the word "imminent." Perhaps a better word would be "possible" or of more concern. Sorry.
simple math thats it thats what i use
1525. JLPR
1522. DeerfieldBeachGuy 3:40 AM GMT on July 05, 2008

yep and that one has a great environment to develop =S
Hey Tampa - feel like finishing the rest of the neighborhood off with us? TP for EVERYONE.

Tampa/St. Pete is my fav racing place btw...love it there. I wish I could move there and stay forever...such a wonderful place.
Drak...Thanks for making the N/S Carolina distinction....back in Charlseton Harbor...out near Ft. Sumter...on the hook...watching firworks..offshore last night was beautiful....
Hey, SJ! Happy FOURTH to you and the wife! Hey, since we're discussing SST's, which map/site do you consider to be more reliable?
so what have i missed that everyone is debating?
1522
yep stronger then the one we got now and more dangerous
SJ...Aug 15 we're headed offshore...you're coming....
1533. Drakoen
1529. JFV 3:44 AM GMT on July 05, 2008
Drak, is this storm to you now begining to look like a potential real threat to the USA?


Too early to say.
i see that Bertha has left behind a moist environment that this new wave will have the chance to benefit from

Link
1535. JLPR
yep and Bertha cleared all the SAL from the path of this second wave

This wave has a awesome environment lol But that doesnt mean its going to develop =P
i absolutely agree...it literally is a game of odds
Mel where do you live....i did a 7PM update also
still too early jfv an anyway it will be n of sc if it does
LOL, local tv met just said nothing to worry about with it going out to sea. LMAO, lots of variables still with Bertha.
I'm about 20 miles south of Savannah...wish i could live in St. Pete/Tampa though - race there every march (when the car races are going through). Beautiful town.
big bertha the big teaser
dont like playing by the rules
wassup, MLC? happy 4th!
1541. melwerle 11:53 PM EDT on July 04, 2008
I'm about 20 miles south of Savannah...wish i could live in St. Pete/Tampa though - race there every march (when the car races are going through). Beautiful town.


Yes it is and we also have the best team in baseball also....lol
honoring those that made the ultimate sacrifice...
A Fitting Tribute to a Slain Navy SEAL Gains Attention

i know fla sticks..and its our reality..and being ready is key..
Hi TampaS! So have I missed anything?
looks like bertha is getting sheared, no? i didn't gather a whole lot from reading back the last 100 or so posts....
1550. JLPR
nope dry air giving Bertha a hard time in combination with cool SSTs
yep - blown off a few races to watch your team and eat decent ball game food. Had a great time and watched all the suckers that were racing pull in while we were at a game...gotta love it.
1547. TampaMishy 11:57 PM EDT on July 04, 2008
Hi TampaS! So have I missed anything


Check my blog i did a 7pm update.

1553. Drakoen
1540. moonlightcowboy 3:52 AM GMT on July 05, 2008
LOL, local tv met just said nothing to worry about with it going out to sea. LMAO, lots of variables still with Bertha.


Same here. The weather channel did a better job at discussing the variables today than my local tv met.
looks like bertha may have some dry air to contend with.....


and a lot of shear to the north...


1555. Drakoen
1549. JFV 3:58 AM GMT on July 05, 2008
Any brand new model run out as of yet Drak?


The GFS 00z run is coming out now...
Hey, Pearland! Yep, Happy FOURTH to you, too.

I've been watching the neighbors fireworks show for about an hour and a half. Glorious!

That, and we've been wondering if a weaker Bertha will miss the second weakness and possibly become a landfall threat. IMO, it's looking more possible.
ok thanks!
i can see how cooler SSTs may be an issue...
1559. Drakoen
1554. pearlandaggie 4:00 AM GMT on July 05, 2008
looks like bertha may have some dry air to contend with.....


When it gets into the warmer SST's it will have a better chance at moistening its environment.
1547. TampaMishy 11:57 PM EDT on July 04, 2008
Hi TampaS! So have I missed anything?


How was Brandon on the 4th.....my kids went to Channel side.......would not want to be there now.....lol

hey guys, back from the Beach.. Why in the world is Accuweather showing a track to the Carolinas with Bertha?? Somethings not right there.. it's too far out.
thankfully, the atlantic TCHP doesn't look like the WPac!

GFS 00z

78hrs just north of the islands.
1563. "Amen" to that!
so is it safe to say that a moderately sheared Bertha will travel nearly due west in 25-26 C waters for the next day or so?
It was fine went to some friends house for bbq and fireworks! I wanted to go to Clearwater but dreaded the drive back home!
1570. Drakoen
Bertha is not getting sheared. It's the dry air and low SST's.
1559. Good point, Drak.

Wow, to be so early in the season we've certainly had some interesting things to watch! All that with Arthur and the evil twins, and now Bertha: fish storm or landfaller! Yep, intriguing for sure!
90hrs 00Z GFS scraping the northern islands.
1570. it's my fault...i just glanced at the satellite pic and assumed the degraded presentation was due to shear. sorry!
1574. Drakoen
This GFS run is a little further to the south than the previous. The lower to mid level ridge is stronger.
but it looks to encounter shear in the near future or no?
Friendly...and timely ...reminder; There is no such place as "the Carolinas"...or the "Carolina coast"...you've got North Carolina...and you've got South Carolina....

Greetings fro s/v Black Swan II...anchored at the moment in Charleston Harbor...that's in South Carolina.....
1574. There ya go!
1569. TampaMishy 12:06 AM EDT on July 05, 2008
It was fine went to some friends house for bbq and fireworks! I wanted to go to Clearwater but dreaded the drive back home!


Use to do the waverrunner on the 4th but, its got crazy now...to many manics on the 4th now.....lol
1579. Drakoen
1571. moonlightcowboy 4:07 AM GMT on July 05, 2008
1559. Good point, Drak.

Wow, to be so early in the season we've certainly had some interesting things to watch! All that with Arthur and the evil twins, and now Bertha: fish storm or landfaller! Yep, intriguing for sure!

lol. 3 days ago we were posting fish graphics and now we have to monitor the system very closely now.
there's a tongue of increasing shear just south of bertha

sure is JFV... though not out of the question.. anythings possible
Hey, Press! Happy FOURTH! Watching some colors explode over the water?
yea mlc...and some nice lightening inland....
1577. moonlightcowboy 12:09 AM EDT on July 05, 2008
1574. There ya go!


Wow what a surprise huh MLC....lol...i think we have been saying that all evening....LMAO
press, you should've named it the Black Pearl! ;]
July 23rd
press...and then you have "stuck on stupid" in the GA garage om Richmond Hill. Hope Hurricane evac plans include my boat, cause it's going with me.
1590. Drakoen
1577. moonlightcowboy 4:09 AM GMT on July 05, 2008
1574. There ya go!

The Bermuda high has more expansion to the west too...
1588. melwerle 12:11 AM EDT on July 05, 2008

Mel you really need to monitor Bertha...
Troll alert...
how long is the mjo pulse suppose to last on the atlantic/caribbean side?
Goodnite everyone
GFS 108hrs just north of puerto rico.
pearland...my wife has a huge thing for Johnny Depp....afraid I'll never convince her I'm Jack Sparrow.....
Hmmm... I wonder what's going to happen on July 23rd?
could some drop a link for the latest gfs runs?

much thanks
BamS has shifed north by 2.5deg.
I figured as much - me and my big mouth talking about a storm blowing my house down so I can move back to San Diego...

I've been having that feeling. Have nothing in the cabinet for hurricane stuff, just figured i pack up and go at the first sign since we are three blocks from the river. No way I am staying.

Right now, really think it's that big of a problem?
That's interesting and should shift the models further west. I think there's a good chance that we've got a new ball game on our hands fellas.
tampa...I've been a bit disconnected for the last 2 days....seems Bertha might be worth paying some attention to....
Man i am becoming a believer...Yesterday i was sptting on the fact that this storm would be a threat to the U.S now all i can think about is how ripe the gulf is and the computer models changing drastically everytime i get on here and check....should the gulf be nervous...Even if it wouldnt go through the straight and cross Florida it could explode on the gulf stream right now....Pray for troughs!
1596. LOL...still, Black Swan is better than Mud Duck! LOL
1598. DeerfieldBeachGuy 12:15 AM EDT on July 05, 2008
could some drop a link for the latest gfs runs?

much thanks

GO HERE
1594. TampaMishy 12:13 AM EDT on July 05, 2008
Goodnite everyone


Nite Mishy
West at 20mph.
goodnight, TampaMishy :)
1607. who are we talking about? post number?

/nevermind...saw it...LOL


/i'll go get the Troll-X
GFS 120Hrs approaching bahamas.
oops i said the F word(Florida)
1602. presslord 12:16 AM EDT on July 05, 2008
tampa...I've been a bit disconnected for the last 2 days....seems Bertha might be worth paying some attention to....


Not really alot other than Bertha missed the hole to escape and is now tracking west with the high building in front of her.....no big deal...YET!
all i could find is generic troll spray...hope it works....
1612. louisianaboy444 12:19 AM EDT on July 05, 2008

We all might be saying some "F" words before this season ends......
come on up Tampa...we'll ride her out on the boat...which, for those of you who are horrified at the thought, is - under certain circumstances - not as stupid as you might think.....
yeah i keep telling myself this storm will go out to sea and not enter the gulf but everytime i look the models trend more and more south into the straight....i'm scared to look at what i will see tomorow
press, i don't think it's stupid at all, so long as nothing goes wrong! at least there's very little flying debris to deal with on the water.
Danger Zones
1. Florida
2. North Carolina
3. Texas

I remember this from on TWC.


1616. presslord 12:24 AM EDT on July 05, 2008
come on up Tampa...we'll ride her out on the boat...which, for those of you who are horrified at the thought, is - under certain circumstances - not as stupid as you might think.....


Been on a 27Footer in 8 foot seas......couldn't hold my head up for a week if you know what i mean.....wow...it was bad.
ok - do i need to send the boat to New Jersey for a weekend at it's previouis owners house? No way am I leaving it at home if this is going to be an issue.
1619. NorthxCakalaky 12:27 AM EDT on July 05, 2008
2. North Carolina
press, if i was forced to relocate, Charleston would be at the top of a very short list for me!

have you ever had Chef Carter's Coconut Cake at the Peninsula Grill? i heard it kicks arse! LOL
exactly pearland..the theory is: the boat is designed to take it...the house is not...spent Floyd here on the hook on the boat...not a direct hit...was an interesting ride....
1621. melwerle 12:28 AM EDT on July 05, 2008
ok - do i need to send the boat to New Jersey for a weekend at it's previouis owners house? No way am I leaving it at home if this is going to be an issue.


No Mel you have plenty of time to do that unless your leaving town and coming to Tampa....lol
pearland...ate there in May for our aniv....wife had that....seemed to like it...I'm not so found of coconut...but that place is outstanding....
1622

?
Press - I do sailing but i think i might honestly toss my cookies overboard if i had to deal with that nonsense. Maybe I"m not cut out for foredeck...bleeechhhhh
mel....dry stack it and you'll be fine...or put it in the garage....
alright, i'm out, folks! have a safe and wonderful rest of your weekend!

please remember to thank a vet if you get the chance.

what are the most recent models saying...too lazy to check plus like hearing everyones opinion...spill all the gut instincts!
Just saw this.... maybe I should prepare for a visitor?

At least it wasn't me hypecasting this! LOL




Sure don't want a cane to make landfall but we could use the rain in the SC upstate.
i dont know the subject has changed lol
the big problem for me was lightning...made all sorts of things draw up, if ya know what I mean.....
Is that a wave coming off of Africa?
wow the new GFS has Bertha apporaching the Bahamas....sooner or later the Gulf of Mexico will be in the cone of uncertainity...this is getting serious
prees - already in the garage on a trailor...covered, sails are packed. I'm taking it unless it's not allowed in evac. Better yet - how bout if you guys have to go, come down here if we don't. If we have to go, we go to Tampa if they don't...lol. and then if everyone is jammed, we go to Flood's house. I'm sure he'll apprecitate that.
lol good old accuweather, everyday is april fools at accuweather
enough bertha watching for me tonight..will check in am..hopefully i can figure out posting using the blackberry tomorrow afternoon..will be out and around, but hope to keep up with the board. good night to all and hope all had a great 4th!
soooo got busted tping the neighbor's house..have to undo all the for sale signs and stuff on their lawn...brb
hey thel - that is what i said...uh oh...(well not THOSE WORDS but something in the same dictionary)...
Press the pic i just posted at 1638 speaks volumes......you can see the high building in her nose...i look for Bertha to actually make a more South bounce than most think....that high appears to be building very strong.
hi all! we live here in brownsville,mexico(texas actually). great to have a hundred heads better than mine to help me prepare for the inevitable repeat of beulah,allen and emily. keep up the good work and remember - the nhc doesn't have time to read this blog.....or do they?.....?
Indeed, the Mid July Cane I predicted ... is Coming.
a hurricane in mid july thats not a prediction thats a sure thing you crack me up
stormtop,stormyeyes,stormkat and what ever other stormy you are
the great and almighty stormtop...woo hooo.

Time for me to go to bed I think.
Looking at the GFS run Bertha may be just the preview ........did you see the storm entering the Carribean and entering the GOM on the loop.....hum
tampa....that's a great pic...the fact is, this baby still has a lot of real estate to cover before we have much of a clue....
1650. melwerle 12:52 AM EDT on July 05, 2008

Mel dream of Canes......lol have a good one.
too early to tell JFV...models change, the storm changes...can't tell yet. It's a "wait and see thing" right now. Hang tight for a few more days.
Ah....Dreams of San Diego....
HOld on JFV if the GFS has it parked just East of the Bahamas how does it make that sharp of a turn to hit North Carolina that must be a turn on a dime for sure
The models are starting to trend back to the East in that batch
Photobucket

I think Bertha is feeling the cooler SSTs and the dry air entrainment. This keeps her weaker and more westerly I think.
1659. louisianaboy444

The second trough picks it up. Alot of storms that stall there get pushed into NC like that becasue of a trough coming across.
nite all from the accuweather war zone! LOL
Have a good sleep, thel!
I know that sharp turn its about 30ft hang a right then 10ft left go straight ahead about 15ft and jump in bed.........there that is TampaSpins track......i just hope that Bertha girl doen't find my bed tho......LMAO
Nite all im out have a good nite sleep when you get there.......
Trough won't catch this one.
Have a good sleep, TS and anyone else going, too! Y'all have a great weekend!
Well, the system will reach Warmer SSTs and a Moister environment soon.
GFS had to go and show a Conus hit...This should make things interesting in the week to come.

Bertha Mimic

Night all!
iam checkin out as well see all in the early morning later
1673. JLPR
That wave/blob behind Bertha is looking good =P
1674. JLPR
wind shear not a problem
Have a good sleep, Keeper!
1676. Buhdog
Hey Sj...How been?
1677. Levi32
Good evening to all you late owls =)
where is everyone for the new model runs?
lmao, seriously, waiting here too, and it probably wont say much at all.
1682. Levi32
Well gee while you guys wait look at the HWRF and GFDL 0z runs lol. Link
lol, thanx much levi.
1685. Levi32
Lol...0z GFS Ensembles should be out any minute......if you guys didn't see the 18z ones here they are......scary....lol
THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERTHA IS NEAR 16.0N 33.5W AT
05/0300 UTC OR ABOUT 1015 KM WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MOVING WEST 18 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
1000 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 45 KT WITH GUSTS
TO 55 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT42 KNHC AND THE LATEST PUBLIC
ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 17N TO 19N BETWEEN 31W
AND 33W...AND FROM 16N TO 17N BETWEEN 33W AND 34W. GLOBAL
FORECAST MODELS MOVE BERTHA WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS.
1688. Levi32
Oh interesting fact:

1996 Hurricane Bertha formed on July 5th just south of where our Bertha will be tomorrow morning, and the ECMWF 0z run last night has our Bertha at the same coordinates of the exact date and time that the 1996 Bertha was at in the Bahamas. Eerie huh?
1689. Levi32
TWD!!!! lol Link
1691. Levi32
ok goodnight lol
Yeah post those GFS ensembles Levi when they r ready.
yeah that last run of the ensemble looks like trouble for FL, what do you levi?
1694. Levi32
Well I've found it interesting that the AVN0(normal GFS that we see) has been on the northern side of the ensemble envelope this whole time. It's definitely a cause for concern with this southerly track. If Bertha can make it to the coordinates of the track that Bertha in 1996 took, then we will have to be really worried.
I noticed that the GFS looses the storm. Any reasons why?
any new runs out there??
1700. Levi32
1698. hurricaneguy87 10:35 PM AKDT on July 04, 2008

Not sure....I think some of the models are forecasting shear....and stuff like that but it's hard to know what conditions will be. The GFDL still insists on strengthening after 4-5 days.
1697. Houstonian 6:32 AM GMT on July 05, 2008
..... Fish Storm.......



TROLL ALERT!

Do you think the NHC is going to shift the forecasted track more south and west at the 5AM update? Also, according to the XTRAP model Bertha is moving NW...is that true? Last I heard it was moving WSW.
movement due west for Bertha, models keep coming more to the west in every post, hmmmmm, same latitude Bertha 1, was on July 5, 1996, hmmmm maybe the story is repeating again with Bertha 2. Northern easterly island, then heading to east U.S. Keep tracking the system, you never know.
1704. Levi32
1702.

They probably won't change it much based on the latest model runs. The XTRAP was put out before the last NHC update and that was during one of Bertha's NW wobbles. Bertha has never moved south her entire life it's about due west right now.
1705. Levi32
Well I'm out for the night guys, see y'all tomorrow.
JLPR,for us in Puerto Rico the strong lower latitude wave coming out of Africa should be our main concern.
Thanks, Levi! Goodnight! I'm out of here also.
1708. JLPR
yep that one seems to be holding together for the moment who know maybe that one is going to try to develop too =O This is crazy, another Cape Verde in July arrg I dont want to imagine late August - September =S
1709. JLPR
you guys think that 5AM will be worth losing sleep over?

1711. JLPR
Well if somebody is there im out =P
Later anyone thats there lol
1712. JLPR
nope even if at 5am it becomes a cat 5 its far away from land =P
true, although if it did that would mean it is gone with the next trough. nite!
According to dvorak estimates bertha is either maintaining or increasing in intensity.

The "blob" does look like another one to watch, but we need to watch how it acts over the water for the next day or so, might just fizzle like most do so early, but hey....bertha
where do you all suggest for the most recent model runs cuz my site is not cutting it.
1712. Say that to Hurricane Isabel,
God, I remember it, Lived in Chesapeake at the time, posted Photo's of the damage.
hey is it just me or did all the new runs just come in?



Bertha is looking a-lot more healthyer....

she has weakened but only slightly


I don't want Bertha to go there... she'll go into the gulf and be a direct mexico to NOLA hit
Hi All. Back for this new season.

As my name says, I am just an interested layman, no weather training.

I am in Barbados (hence 'Baje', which is abbreviated for 'Bajan', an alternate name for Barbadians), also why I am so interested in storms, self-preservation and just plain curiosity.

Seems that the season starting with a record easterly storm does not bode well.

From this mornings satellite photo, Bertha seems headed fairly high north, seems to have taken a bit of a jump, so why are the models showing it towards Bahamas?

The 'blob' behind it looks quite worrisome to me. Especially if it stays south, I think we may have trouble.

Later, off for a run shortly.

Holy, Thats a godly model shift.
Alright, its starting to look like a Dean Situation now.
1725. 7544
yeap watch the models run will have bertha reaching 80 west i think they are getting confused becuase we never had to deal with somthing like this this early from the cv area so its all a first for everyone even the models
7544, unfortunately, its not. Its happened in July with stronger storms, abiet farther away from the coast of Africa, Hurricane Emily for example.
The High is just to strong, shes taking aim on the
Carraibian
REPEATING THE 500 AM AST POSITION...16.5 N...35.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 21 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB.
new advisory Link
1729. 7544
5 am update

...BERTHA SPEEDING ALONG OVER THE TROPICAL EASTERN ATLANTIC...

AT 500 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 35.3 WEST OR ABOUT 750
MILES...1205 KM...WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

BERTHA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 21 MPH...33
KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. BERTHA WILL BE ABOUT HALF WAY BETWEEN THE
WEST COAST OF AFRICA AND THE LESSER ANTILLES BY TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST TODAY...BUT GRADUAL
STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 500 AM AST POSITION...16.5 N...35.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 21 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB
Expect a track change, this time way down south.
1731. 7544
CybrTeddy 8:44 AM GMT on July 05, 2008
Expect a track change, this time way down south.
Action: | Ignore User


no track change from the 5am update but i also agree maybe at 11 am it will go further south ty
New Track, Florida's in trouble if it holds true.
I would say that if the NHC track is correct then Galveston and Florida MUST watch this storm
Bertha's likely to be a CAT 1/ weak 2 If it hits Florida.
1734.

and then into the gulf

*gulps*

cat 3 if it makes it into the gulf?
1736. 7544
yeap it did go further south hmmmm
she keeps creeping north of due west...why do u guys think this is?
1736.

how long has it been since there has been a 'cane hit florida....

I'm haveing to watch the storms for a freind whos going over for a few weeks soon
1739. sngalla
Wilma hit S FL in 2005.
wilma
1741. 7544
something tells me she will get to like 23 or 24 north and that big b high will be stronget than anticipated and she will have no where to go bout west imo. thats what the trend is trying to playout and if the 30k sheer is gone by then we could see her become a cat 2 . keeping close eyes on sunday
1742. sngalla
NHC is taking their time putting out the 5am discussion.
1743. sngalla
Statement as of 5:00 am EDT on July 05, 2008


Bertha is passing over sea-surface temperatures of roughly 25
degrees celsius...about the coolest the cyclone has encountered yet
during the usual diurnal convective maximum...and it has been
struggling to produce very much deep convection overnight. Dvorak
intensity estimates at 06z were 35-45 kt...and while it is possible
the winds have weakened...the advisory intensity will remain 45 kt
for now. During the next three days...Bertha has an opportunity to
strengthen as the underlying water temperatures steadily warm by
about a degree celsius per day along the forecast track. All of
the objective intensity models forecast intensification through 72
hours...with the SHIPS and lgem reaching 65 kt by then...while HWRF
and GFDL are more conservative. The official intensity forecast is
a blend of these solutions and is the same as the previous advisory
in peaking at 60 kt. One should not pay too much attention to the
exact intensity forecast...however. The maximum wind speed
probability table included in this forecast package indicates
roughly equal chances of Bertha being a tropical storm or a
hurricane at 3 to 5 days. Whether or not Bertha becomes a
hurricane would seem to depend on how well it survives its stay
over cooler waters...and just how much wind shear impacts the
cyclone once it reaches the warmer waters...and both of those
factors are somewhat uncertain right now.

A couple of recent microwave overpasses from AMSU and AMSR-E provide
the basis for the initial motion estimate of 285/18. Overall the
dynamical model guidance provides no strong indication that Bertha
will deviate much from the current west-northwestward heading
during the next several days. The weakness in the subtropical
ridge currently along about 55w is forecast by the models to become
less pronounced and to propagate eastward during the next couple of
days...and most of the guidance tracks show Bertha bypassing this
feature with just a slight Bend to the right on days 3 through 5.
The HWRF is the only dynamical model currently calling for Bertha
to turn northward before reaching 60w. The model consensus has
hardly budged on this cycle...and the new official track forecast
is adjusted only slightly faster and to the left at days 3 through
5. This new track is most similar to the GFDL...GFS...and
ECMWF...but the track forecast uncertainty remains significant as
reflected by the continuing large spread in the long-range model
guidance.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT2+shtml/050900.shtml

000
WTNT42 KNHC 050900
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008
500 AM EDT SAT JUL 05 2008

BERTHA IS PASSING OVER SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF ROUGHLY 25
DEGREES CELSIUS...ABOUT THE COOLEST THE CYCLONE HAS ENCOUNTERED YET
DURING THE USUAL DIURNAL CONVECTIVE MAXIMUM...AND IT HAS BEEN
STRUGGLING TO PRODUCE VERY MUCH DEEP CONVECTION OVERNIGHT. DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES AT 06Z WERE 35-45 KT...AND WHILE IT IS POSSIBLE
THE WINDS HAVE WEAKENED...THE ADVISORY INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 45 KT
FOR NOW. DURING THE NEXT THREE DAYS...BERTHA HAS AN OPPORTUNITY TO
STRENGTHEN AS THE UNDERLYING WATER TEMPERATURES STEADILY WARM BY
ABOUT A DEGREE CELSIUS PER DAY ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK. ALL OF
THE OBJECTIVE INTENSITY MODELS FORECAST INTENSIFICATION THROUGH 72
HOURS...WITH THE SHIPS AND LGEM REACHING 65 KT BY THEN...WHILE HWRF
AND GFDL ARE MORE CONSERVATIVE. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS
A BLEND OF THESE SOLUTIONS AND IS THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY
IN PEAKING AT 60 KT. ONE SHOULD NOT PAY TOO MUCH ATTENTION TO THE
EXACT INTENSITY FORECAST...HOWEVER. THE MAXIMUM WIND SPEED
PROBABILITY TABLE INCLUDED IN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE INDICATES
ROUGHLY EQUAL CHANCES OF BERTHA BEING A TROPICAL STORM OR A
HURRICANE AT 3 TO 5 DAYS. WHETHER OR NOT BERTHA BECOMES A
HURRICANE WOULD SEEM TO DEPEND ON HOW WELL IT SURVIVES ITS STAY
OVER COOLER WATERS...AND JUST HOW MUCH WIND SHEAR IMPACTS THE
CYCLONE ONCE IT REACHES THE WARMER WATERS...AND BOTH OF THOSE
FACTORS ARE SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN RIGHT NOW.

A COUPLE OF RECENT MICROWAVE OVERPASSES FROM AMSU AND AMSR-E PROVIDE
THE BASIS FOR THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 285/18. OVERALL THE
DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE PROVIDES NO STRONG INDICATION THAT BERTHA
WILL DEVIATE MUCH FROM THE CURRENT WEST-NORTHWESTWARD HEADING
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE CURRENTLY ALONG ABOUT 55W IS FORECAST BY THE MODELS TO BECOME
LESS PRONOUNCED AND TO PROPAGATE EASTWARD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...AND MOST OF THE GUIDANCE TRACKS SHOW BERTHA BYPASSING THIS
FEATURE WITH JUST A SLIGHT BEND TO THE RIGHT ON DAYS 3 THROUGH 5.
THE HWRF IS THE ONLY DYNAMICAL MODEL CURRENTLY CALLING FOR BERTHA
TO TURN NORTHWARD BEFORE REACHING 60W. THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS
HARDLY BUDGED ON THIS CYCLE...AND THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST
IS ADJUSTED ONLY SLIGHTLY FASTER AND TO THE LEFT AT DAYS 3 THROUGH
5. THIS NEW TRACK IS MOST SIMILAR TO THE GFDL...GFS...AND
ECMWF...BUT THE TRACK FORECAST UNCERTAINTY REMAINS SIGNIFICANT AS
REFLECTED BY THE CONTINUING LARGE SPREAD IN THE LONG-RANGE MODEL
GUIDANCE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 05/0900Z 16.5N 35.3W 45 KT
12HR VT 05/1800Z 17.0N 38.0W 45 KT
24HR VT 06/0600Z 17.6N 41.8W 50 KT
36HR VT 06/1800Z 18.2N 45.6W 55 KT
48HR VT 07/0600Z 19.0N 49.3W 60 KT
72HR VT 08/0600Z 20.5N 56.0W 60 KT
96HR VT 09/0600Z 22.5N 61.0W 60 KT
120HR VT 10/0600Z 24.5N 66.0W 60 KT

$$
FORECASTER KNABB
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.2 /1000.0mb/ 49.0kt
1745.

They haven't been watching that for along time teddy
1747. 7544
did i read that that right she will be close to leeser antilies by tonight shes real;y moving then !

kk halfway there
I don't want Bertha to go there... she'll go into the gulf and be a direct mexico to NOLA hit

Well, sooner or later this season, there is going to be a storm in the Gulf of Mexico. That's a fact.

But I think it's pretty dumb of you to say that it will directly hit areas from Mexico to NOLA. Anywhere could be a target with this. Quit instilling unnecessary fear.
1749. redavni
Does anyone think that Bertha may end up paving the way through all that dry air in the Atlantic for that blob behind it?
1721 and 1748
We don't know where it will go. But it reminds us to be prepared. Nature is unpredictable,relentless and wondrous. I'm preparing in any case.
1754. IKE
On their latest runs....

GFS, ECMWF, UKM.....basically lose Bertha Butt.

GFDL has it near 25N, 64W at the end of it's run w/85 knot winds.

CMC places it about 300 miles east of where the GFDL ends up, at the end of it's run.

HWRF puts it near 28N, 55W on the end of it's run w/62 knot winds.

The NOGAPS puts it just east of the southeastern most islands of the Bahama chain.


There you have it....your model run update.

Now back to classic rock with side 2 of Led Zeppelin 4.......
1755. IKE
How many times will this be said on this blog today....

(1)The NHC track will shift south.

(2)Anywhere from Florida to Maine needs to watch this.

(3)It won't get strong enough to feel the trough and turn north.

(4)Is that an eye forming?

(5)The GOM might get paid a visit by Bertha.

(6)It's moving WSW.

(7)It's weakening.

(8)It's strengthening.

(9)Cat 3 for the east coast.

(10)It'll never hit any land mass.


I'll go with #10. I may have to eat crow with it making it 60W...I said it never would, but I don't think this will ever hit land. Shear may become an issue according to the NHC.....
Morning all (at work atm)

Latest look at Bertha:

The influx of dry air is beginning to break down. It's far edge near Bertha is retreating W and Bertha is following it. Also to note, it looks like Bertha's mid-lvl circulation moved northwards with the last convection cycle, while Bertha's low lvl circulation continues it's westward track. The small amount of convection around the low lvl circ is trying to reorganize this morning around a tight semi-circular partial eye wall. However, further development does not seem likely if Bertha wraps in more dry air from the ridge to her W.
1757. IKE
It's currently moving WNW...if Bertha was around 10-12 north, this would be a big threat to the islands...
Ike,
Thank ypu for the update, seems like you had some strong coffee this morning? lol :)
news is mixed JFV ....next few hours will tell it's story...but she's not quite done yet...putting up a fight
1763. IKE
1760. sporteguy03 5:59 AM CDT on July 05, 2008
Ike,
Thank ypu for the update, seems like you had some strong coffee this morning? lol :)


Yo bud....60% chance of rain...at my house today...60% tomorrow....50% on Monday.
Here is a good model plot link from the SFWMD. I post it because the link has changed since last year.
Just thought I would say goodmorning..and that I am enjoying reading everyone's posts!
well Bertha has undergone a lot of weakening convection wise. Also the low lvl looks like it is re-establishing a better cir around the remainning convection....If it can do this before it runs into the ridge, then it will be ok..Or, if the ridge breaks down faster than anticipated than Bertha will reorganize more quickly....that's why it will depend on the next few hours.
1767. IKE
1765.....good morning........
in the middle of printing my casino reports....that's why my responses are taking so long...morning 1765
I still think that it only will pose a problem for Bermuda...but I could be wrong based on how much more W Bertha takes.
1774. IKE
1769. JFV 6:11 AM CDT on July 05, 2008
WOW, I guess IKE must have me on his ignore list. That's quite alright though, I'll survive!


Ignore list? Read my posts above/below, before you started posting...I gave out my thoughts......beyond that...strength...I don't know...shear may affect her.......
Morning everyone just logged in and eating my Lucky Charms......lol
1768 JFV

Does the NHC have a 7 day cone? I noticed that accuweather has a 7 day cone on their site.
Good Morning All, Just want to introduce myself, I'm from Barbados & live in Guadeloupe. I have been following Weather Underground from inception and think its great. I'm not a pro but at this time of year the weather is my passion.I look forward to chatting with all.....

At this time I still think we in the Northern Island should still keep an EYE on TS BERTHA...
Ok I'm not very weather savy at all...but last year We had that strong High that sat around the south all summer and basically ran all storms south..We didn't get hardly and rain and suffered..lol..This year we are getting rain almost every day here on the panhandle of Florida. Is this a sign of things to come for this hurricane season?..Are the weather patterns connected? I understsand this is a very broad question and can not be storm specific..but with Bertha formin so earlly off the CV...I"m wonderingif we won't be more prone to a gulf of mexico storm...lol
Hi JFV just looking at things now...but Bertha is defintely reintensifing currently.....alot of storms firing.
1786. IKE
1784...odds are the GOM is going to experience at least a couple of systems...maybe a major...I'm not sure the rainy pattern is connected...it might be though being we're getting a feed off of the GOM for the most part. The high not as strong...systems can come north vs. what they did last year(Dean and Felix).
1788. IKE
Looks to be moving just north of west.
1784. aubiesgirl 7:24 AM EDT on July 05, 2008
Ok I'm not very weather savy at all...


For a non savy weather person that was pretty good, but yes you are correct. We currently don't have that dome of high pressure protecting us like we did last year making all the big storms go south.....that could change.
if memory serves me corretly Ike you live in Defuniak right...It just worries us with the complete difference in weather this year. I know right now it's nothing to get hoppin up and down worried about as Bertha is waayyy out there.just something that made me think..hmmmmm
lol trust me Tampa..that's about as good as I give right there
1793. IKE
1790...yeah..I remember you from last season..........
lol I don't know if that is good or bad..I only show up during hurricane season..lol
2008070506Z GFDL

HOUR: .0 LONG: -34.39 LAT: 16.02 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1006.16 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 41.62
HOUR: 6.0 LONG: -36.27 LAT: 16.39 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1005.10 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 36.91
HOUR: 12.0 LONG: -38.14 LAT: 16.56 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1004.69 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 38.79
HOUR: 18.0 LONG: -39.66 LAT: 16.67 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1007.14 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 37.01
HOUR: 24.0 LONG: -41.64 LAT: 17.04 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1007.45 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 38.31
HOUR: 30.0 LONG: -43.58 LAT: 17.68 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1006.61 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 45.54
HOUR: 36.0 LONG: -45.56 LAT: 18.22 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1006.49 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 42.96
HOUR: 42.0 LONG: -47.24 LAT: 18.90 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1006.27 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 48.33
HOUR: 48.0 LONG: -48.75 LAT: 19.89 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1002.27 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 52.57
HOUR: 54.0 LONG: -50.12 LAT: 20.33 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1003.75 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 60.31
HOUR: 60.0 LONG: -51.49 LAT: 20.86 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1002.83 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 54.00
HOUR: 66.0 LONG: -52.76 LAT: 21.16 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1002.71 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 48.48
HOUR: 72.0 LONG: -53.84 LAT: 21.77 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1000.88 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 57.51
HOUR: 78.0 LONG: -54.93 LAT: 22.56 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1000.98 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 60.99
HOUR: 84.0 LONG: -56.26 LAT: 23.04 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1005.38 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 45.76
HOUR: 90.0 LONG: -57.32 LAT: 23.69 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1004.30 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 56.15
HOUR: 96.0 LONG: -58.21 LAT: 24.57 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1000.51 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 51.65
HOUR:102.0 LONG: -59.29 LAT: 25.15 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1000.59 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 50.78
HOUR:108.0 LONG: -60.30 LAT: 25.72 MIN PRESS (hPa): 998.64 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 60.64
HOUR:114.0 LONG: -61.04 LAT: 26.35 MIN PRESS (hPa): 993.79 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 67.85
HOUR:120.0 LONG: -61.82 LAT: 26.84 MIN PRESS (hPa): 990.63 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 69.25
HOUR:126.0 LONG: -62.50 LAT: 27.40 MIN PRESS (hPa): 988.30 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 75.26

1796. IKE
1790...you're in FWB...Destin area...a lot of folks from around the panhandle are on here......
yes Eglin to be exact but I grew up in fwb
1798. breald
Good morning everyone,

I am just checking out the latest on our friend Bertha. I just wish I knew of this site last year. Thanks all.
2008070506Z HWRF

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE MIN PRESS (hPa) MAX SFC WIND (KTS)

HOUR: 0.0 LONG: -34.30 LAT: 16.20 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1000.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 45.00
HOUR: 6.0 LONG: -36.10 LAT: 16.60 MIN PRESS (hPa): 998.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 46.00
HOUR: 12.0 LONG: -37.80 LAT: 17.10 MIN PRESS (hPa): 999.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 45.00
HOUR: 18.0 LONG: -39.50 LAT: 17.60 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1000.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 45.00
HOUR: 24.0 LONG: -41.20 LAT: 18.20 MIN PRESS (hPa): 999.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 49.00
HOUR: 30.0 LONG: -43.20 LAT: 18.90 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1001.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 54.00
HOUR: 36.0 LONG: -45.00 LAT: 19.60 MIN PRESS (hPa): 999.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 55.00
HOUR: 42.0 LONG: -46.50 LAT: 19.90 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1000.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 50.00
HOUR: 48.0 LONG: -47.70 LAT: 20.40 MIN PRESS (hPa): 996.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 52.00
HOUR: 54.0 LONG: -48.70 LAT: 21.00 MIN PRESS (hPa): 994.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 55.00
HOUR: 60.0 LONG: -49.70 LAT: 21.60 MIN PRESS (hPa): 991.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 58.00
HOUR: 66.0 LONG: -50.40 LAT: 22.00 MIN PRESS (hPa): 993.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 54.00
HOUR: 72.0 LONG: -51.10 LAT: 22.60 MIN PRESS (hPa): 993.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 51.00
HOUR: 78.0 LONG: -51.90 LAT: 23.20 MIN PRESS (hPa): 990.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 56.00
HOUR: 84.0 LONG: -52.40 LAT: 24.00 MIN PRESS (hPa): 989.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 57.00
HOUR: 90.0 LONG: -52.80 LAT: 24.70 MIN PRESS (hPa): 991.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 51.00
HOUR: 96.0 LONG: -53.10 LAT: 25.40 MIN PRESS (hPa): 992.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 49.00
HOUR: 102.0 LONG: -53.40 LAT: 26.10 MIN PRESS (hPa): 993.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 52.00
HOUR: 108.0 LONG: -53.50 LAT: 26.80 MIN PRESS (hPa): 988.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 56.00
HOUR: 114.0 LONG: -53.40 LAT: 27.20 MIN PRESS (hPa): 986.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 57.00
HOUR: 120.0 LONG: -53.50 LAT: 27.60 MIN PRESS (hPa): 982.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 59.00
HOUR: 126.0 LONG: -53.40 LAT: 28.20 MIN PRESS (hPa): 980.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 63.00
1800. IKE
1797...could be a busy year for the gulf coast......tropically speaking......
1801. IKE
nrtiwlnvragn

Those 2 models are trending north...."""fish"""
well I appreciate the input..I need hop off and go get my "long" run in before it gets too hot and HUMID!! argh the humidty is killing me! I'll be back later on to view everyone's input thanks Guys!!!
1804. IKE
1802.....

later....

good luck w/the running....carry a can of mace!
1801. IKE

Yeah, 00Z HWRF was turning north ~54-55W, 06Z HWRF now turning north ~52-53W. Key will be strength in 48-60 hours.
1806. IKE
1803. JFV 6:43 AM CDT on July 05, 2008
But the rest of them ain't IKE.


Depends on how strong it is....

strong...fish.

weak.....west.
1808. IKE
1805. nrtiwlnvragn 6:44 AM CDT on July 05, 2008
1801. IKE

Yeah, 00Z HWRF was turning north ~54-55W, 06Z HWRF now turning north ~52-53W. Key will be strength in 48-60 hours.


You're right...I see the trough to Bertha's NW....on the visible....

Link
So..bare with me,I worked all night and am feeling kinda like Im living in a fantasy world of sorts...but i digress. Question..IF Bertha follows what the models are telling us, there would be little or no chance of a Florida landfall....right?
What I find interesting this morning is that the NOGAPS keeps a well-organized system south.
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 05 JUL 2008 Time : 111500 UTC
Lat : 16:38:20 N Lon : 35:58:29 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.3 / 998.7mb/ 51.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
3.3 3.4 3.4

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +2.3mb

Center Temp : -24.8C Cloud Region Temp : -41.7C

Scene Type : SHEAR (0.04^ TO DG)

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

****************************************************
Just finished my tropical blog update if anyone wants to view.
Morning!

I see the model consensus (if you can call it that) has generally continued to trend further south and west overnight, together with the official forecast. Still a lot of Bertha's eventual track depends on it's eventual intensity. You can see that the new GFDL brings Bertha to a decent Category 1 strength (86 mph) in 126 hours, with the HWRF showing a 72 mph tropical storm at the same time frame.

Still it doesn't look like Bertha will feel the effects of this weakness as much as the next one, and how strong Bertha is when the second weakness develops as a trough sweeps off the US coast at about 168 hours out will determine whether she is a fish or not.

Interests in the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the Northern Antilles should probably begin to keep a close eye on this system...
1813. DestinJeff 6:54 AM EST on July 05, 2008

While the Northern islands should monitor Bertha I don't think the GFS is handling intensity correctly (and therefore, track is off).
Terra you basically said the same as i did on my blog...lol
1823. TampaSpin 7:10 AM EST on July 05, 2008

Lol, I actually haven't taken a look at your new blog yet.
Bertha is our main focus now, but has anyone noticed the blob behind Bertha, closer to Africa? What an amazing start to the CV season.
1827. aquak9
JFV, I know you've probably told us many times, and I apologize in advance, but where are you located?
The latest TRMM satellite radar scan revealed a dry slot flowing into the center from the southwest. Heavy precipitation is restricted to the north and immediate west of the center.
Keep an eye out on that ULL over Florida atm...It looks like it might get pushed over the GS and sit there a day or two...If it stays there longer than that then it will certainly have a bearing on where Bertha will head.
Thank you JFV....one thing i did not say. I am begining to believe that where Bertha is getting it may not matter how strong she becomes to still stay on a more southerly track....most people have not said that but, the high in front of Bertha is getting stronger than most believe.
Scan posted this morning:

Just for fun...if you were to extrapolate the 240-hour CMC, a strong Hurricane Bertha would pass right over my house. =0

Link
Gotta run everyone have a good day....and don't sit in front of this monitor all day...have fun!
<<< been talking about the high...but i'm relatively new so I don't get looked at

...I use the esl.lsu.edu site Nova. I know the Prof over that research model (Dr. Hsu).
Good Morning All!

I just about fell out of bedlooking at the GFS when I woke up at 2 am to see the 00z model runs.
But the high is weakening on it's trailing edge and building on it's leading edge over the Lesser Antilles....This in combination with the BH and the ULL/Trough should stear it NWrdly or atleast that is what I think it will do.
1843. MZV
I'm surprised that anyone who has been on this blog more than a few years would pay any attention to models more than 3 or at most 4 days out. We have seen them move so many times.

I will admit though that there have been a few times the long term projections had a perfect lead on a storm (Dean comes to mind).
Good Morning all!

So what is the latest going on with Bertha? Is she a fish storm yet as I keep constantly hearing on tv and seeing in other wx blogs?
I know this is a day late, but I think its worth putting on here, folks after reading this, lets all reflect as americans!
appy 4th

Happy 4th everyone and remember, Those who went before us paid one Hell of a price... So that we could live in freedom!


Liberty has a price...

Have you ever wondered what happened to the 56 men who signed the Declaration of Independence?

Five signers were captured by the British as traitors, and tortured before they died. Twelve had their homes ransacked and burned. Two lost their sons serving in the Revolutionary Army, another had two sons captured. Nine of the 56 fought and died from wounds or hardships of the Revolutionary War. They signed and they pledged their lives, their fortunes, and their sacred honor.

What kind of men were they? Twenty-four were lawyers and jurists. Eleven were merchants, nine were farmers and large plantation owners; men of means, well educated. But they signed the Declaration of Independence knowing full well that the penalty would be death if they were captured. Carter Braxton of Virginia, a wealthy planter and trader, saw his ships swept from the seas by the British Navy. He sold his home and properties to pay his debts, and died in rags.

Thomas McKeam was so hounded by the British that he was forced to move his family almost constantly. He served in the Congress without pay, and his family was kept in hiding. His possessions were taken from him, and poverty was his reward. Vandals or soldiers looted the properties of Dillery, Hall, Clymer, Walton, Gwinnett, Heyward, Ruttledge, and Middleton. At the battle of Yorktown, Thomas Nelson, Jr., noted that the British General Cornwallis had taken over the Nelson home for his headquarters. He quietly urged General George Washington to open fire. The home was destroyed, and Nelson died bankrupt.

Francis Lewis had his home and properties destroyed. The enemy jailed his wife, and she died within a few months. John Hart was driven from his wife's bedside as she was dying. Their 13 children fled for their lives. His fields and his gristmill were laid to waste. For more than a year he lived in forests and caves, returning home to find his wife dead and his children vanished. A few weeks later he died from exhaustion and a broken heart. Norris and Livingston suffered similar fates.

Such were the stories and sacrifices of the American Revolution. These were not wild-eyed, rabble-rousing ruffians. They were soft-spoken men of means and education. They had security, but they valued liberty more. Standing tall, straight, and unwavering, they pledged:

"For the support of this declaration, with firm reliance on the protection of the divine providence, we mutually pledge to each other, our lives, our fortunes, and our sacred honor."

They gave you and me a free and independent America. The history books never told you a lot of what happened in the Revolutionary War. We didn't just fight the British. We were British subjects at that time and we fought our own government! Some of us take these liberties so much for granted...We shouldn't.

So, take a couple of minutes and silently thank these patriots. It's not much to ask for the price they paid
Good Morning All
6z GFDL is back on the N route and stronger..

Link
1852. aquak9
Thanks, JFV. I thought for some reason, you were in the islands.

you often ask a lot of questions, the same questions I would have. So thank you.

(aqua sits in corner quietly, listening to the discussion)
Good Morning SW
1854. surfmom
Good Morning Compadre's!!! sigh of relief NO barn today, young teen bucks are sleeping off the the 4th. Checking in before I dash out for my run (running to coldplay's new album is divine)so I can eat my ice cream tonight. Happy to see Bertha alive and well.

Back to business at hand --OK guys, is it still quiet in Kman's territory??? --looked like there was some potential there last night --wouldn't mind something running up through the shoot into the GOM. And as far as Bertha.....looks like I might get what I wished for (although now my mate is wagging his finger at me saying it'll be my fault if a cane hits FL & totals the house, cause I have been hoping for a 'cane to keep my mom up north...so far tickets have NOT been purchased)Still think I'd rather have interaction w/Bertha..then watch my mom & mate duel it out.

Been without SURF all of June ..now into July, don't want to spend $ on gas/hotel to cross over to the east coast of Florida --so as I always say, no "storm of mass destruction" - just a buoy rocker so I can get out and play in the waves.
Good Morning all,

To nrtwinvragn, Thanks again for the link on African dust. I'm still learning to use it. Do you think the African dust in magenta to the NNW of Bertha will affect it?



http://oiswww.eumetsat.org/SDDI/cgi/listImages.pl?m=prod,a=1,sa=9,pr=RGB,f=1,c=DUST,se=0,n=24,d=1,v =200,pp=0,t=200807041200#controls
5-10 percent chance I will be affected by tropical storm force winds




Wow di everyone just wake up at the same time? LOL!
1858. IKE
1843...Dean didn't get to 16.5N until it was near 74W....Bertha is there at 36.5W.
Huh????




blog a litle slow this morning?
Yeah 456 I just about fell out of bed when I saw that this morning... I was up till 2 AM and wehen I saw that.. I ain't goin back to sleep now! LOL
1865. breald
Hey Aquka, I am sitting and reading all thr intersting info as well. I hope you had a great 4th!
The NWS in Puerto Rico has already begun to mention Bertha in their Area Forecast Discussion:

OF PARTICULAR INTEREST...TROPICAL STORM BERTHA CONTINUES TO CHURN
OUT IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN...POSING ONLY A THREAT TO
SHIPPING LANES AT THIS TIME. THE SYSTEM SHOULD MAINTAIN A WESTWARD
TRACK FOR THE NEXT DAY AS IT PROPAGATES AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF
THE ATLANTIC SURFACE HIGH. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN EVENTUAL WEST-
NORTHWESTERLY TRACK WITH TIME...WHICH NOW PLACES THE FEATURE
MUCH CLOSER TO THE LOCAL ISLANDS BY WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. WILL
DEFER TO FUTURE FORECAST PACKAGES BEFORE INCREASING THE
PRECIPITATION ON WEDNESDAY UNTIL THE TRACK OF BERTHA IS MORE
CERTAIN.
1868. surfmom
Good morning StormW --- look at all these early risers checking things out -- I think I am going to have to add weather addiction to my life's addiction basket --- I have a few
1860. JFV 8:35 AM AST on July 05, 2008
I'm absolutely floored beyond words, thank you so much for your heartfelt compliment StormW! Good morning 456! So guys, what's your take on Bertha this morning?


She is interesting. She continues to struggle over 25C waters and dry air that would of killed some tropical cyclones but she remains defined. Her track is also interesting. It seems as though, Bertha may affect some landmass down the road. A very big change from when she was born, and I think it will change maybe more in the upcoming days.



I am also watching the wave behind Bertha, GFS still wants to develop this one.
mourning StormW, had some exciting weather here outside z-hills last night a funnel cloud hanging really low but never touching.
1862. JFV 8:36 AM AST on July 05, 2008
You appear to be stunned this morning Weather, what's up bud?


July 02 2008



Its the steering this year that gots me spooked.
1871. Weather456 7:42 AM EST on July 05, 2008

Sometimes I can't help but thinking that some of the models have a northward bias for systems in the Central and Eastern Atlantic. Remember Dean? That map you posted pretty much looked the same as Dean emerged off the African coast.
Also, just some background on me since I am fairly new to the blog...

I'm a PT dual degree student at LSU...Religious Studies(BA) and Geography of Science(BS)...basically a Climate degree...my specialties in GEOGS are in Desertification, Forecasting....working on trying to get more classes on the tropics but they only show up every other year. Most of the classes are on the basics like climate, meteorology, mapping, etc..

But I like the tropics the most.
1874. surfmom
we ALL LISTEN to what you have to say StormW!! LOL :)
1875. aquak9
G'morning to you as well breald...Lurking is good sometimes. Nice to have someone else here in Duval county. (northeast florida)
I'll second that; I have more faith in StormW than the paid professionals
1877. IKE
It is moving faster...almost due west....
1878. breald
I'm with surfmom this stuff can be addicting..LOL
New Blog!
1880. surfmom
is the accuracy of the models affected by the fact that Bertha is basically a total anomaly as she formed so early in the season
1883. MZV
Models are notoriously unreliable when they initialize on a storm. They need at least a few days of data. The current convergences deserve more attention than what we were initially being presented with.
1884. CATfour
National Hurricane Center has Bertha becoming a Hurricane by Tuesday.
1885. CATfour
Here's what Bertha looks like now...Link
hey everyone!
CCHS the hurricane hunter is in the house.
Models.