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Bertha moves away from Bermuda, eyes still on Invest 94L

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 11:47 AM GMT on July 15, 2008

Tropical Storm Bertha is once again up near hurricane strength, but is fortunately moving away from Bermuda. While her maximum sustained winds have increased to 70 mph, it is more important to note that her central pressure is also up to 995 mb, indicating a weaker storm.


Bertha - Watches and Warnings

Bertha's satellite signature shows a very large circulation with one main band wrapping around most of the storm. Other than that, Bertha looks like a normal tropical system decaying over the North Atlantic.

Motion continuing to the north and then to the east is expected over the next few days with some more wobbles to be expected on top of the general progression to the east. Short term strengthening is possible, but Bertha will be transitioning to an extratropical system in the long term.

Click for full size model imagery:

Bertha - Track Forecast

Bertha - Wind Speed Forecast

The area of interest heading toward the Lesser Antilles has still yet to organize. Overall conditions remain favorable for Invest 94L but deeper convection is required. Right now the main burst of convection visible on the satellite imagery is located ahead of the easterly wave axis. If the convection can shift a bit to the east then we could see some development. However, in its current position this burst of convection will not lead to development.

The wave will continue to progress to the west over the medium term. The HWRF has backed off developing the system, but the GFDL is still agressive in its solution. All the models are in agreement on a track to the west-northwest across the northern Caribbean.

Click for full size model imagery:

Invest 94L - Track Forecast

Invest 94L - Intensity Forecast

Writing from cheery old London this week, Bryan Woods.

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

are we back to normal yet
Is anyone Also From Florida Here?

Cause i Want to Know if its going to Rain tommorow In S.E FLA
Not sure were everybody is but the tropics are quiet as far as signifcant threats.The cluster in the GOM is an ULL in reality but could undergo that transition if time allows it to.Either way some good rain for sure for somebody in florida.
1004. hahaguy
Ya sammmy I'm here in port st lucie
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
are we back to normal yet


Define normal?! LOL
I'm out for the evening but will note the following as to the area off Florida; I just checked the Bouys in the area and pressure is not dropping aound/north of Tampa at the coast...However, winds are "mildly" blowing from 9 to 15 knots...Interesting.....

Have a Good Night all and will need to keep an eye on those Bouys in the am and throughout the day tommorow.....
Saw two waterspouts at Siesta Key beach this evening. Tropical funk abounds SW Florida at the moment.
REPORT:
Waterspout
9 W Bee Ridge
Source: Trained Spotter
Reported 4 mi west of Siesta Key by the Sarasota County Beach Patrol



I'd say that system off florida is an invest
i started my own site this site is a back up site fourm so when evere this site gos down or off line you would have a back up weatherunderground to come to

Link
1012. surfmom
I am not surprised about those spouts - bummer I missed it -- those seas were rocking out there today -
1013. surfmom
StormHype - what time were you out there today?
I've had my GRL3 on TBX for long enough to run a loop...I can definitely see the rotation in the precip. Pretty interesting
1015. surfmom
I'm off,looks like I have a muddy day at the polo club tomorrow - night ALL - can't wait to see what tomorrow brings
im going to clearwater beach fl for vacation for a week on saturday..... will this rain be gone?!?!
nite mom
1018. AndyD
Hi folks, I am new here but have posted a couple of comments in the past. I respect you guys and love reading your posts. I am in Madeira Beach Florida near St. Petersburg. I notice a couple of your postings on the rain and storms we have been experiencing the past few days. Tonight there appears to be a low pressure area off the west coast of Florida near my location. Storms moving west from my area but moving east over the Ft. Myers area. Any comments out there? Thanks.
Quoting BajaALemt:
GFS MSLP/6 hr Precip


Check mail!
i think we may have 95L at any time and that will be off the FL coast all so wind shear is olny 5kt overe the storm and its moveing vary slow right now this thing could be come some in big and fast has it move up N
Waterspouts near Siesta Key! That's awesome. Too bad I missed it since I live on Siesta Key. I was on the beach around 6:00 pm or so getting ready for the beach run but the beach run was canceled due to all the rain so I went home. I always love watching severe weather approach the area. A lot of the roads on Siesta were flooded due to all the rain especially along Ocean blvd near the public beach. Seems like Siesta Key never gets rain but boy did we get rain tonight!
Back at ya, Adrian
This little low's really fired up over the past few hours.
1025. 7544
hi is that low in the sw fla area going to cross the state from west to east tia
Ive seen two possible scenarios so far. 1) ENE over the peninsula...2) NE up thru the big bend area. RUC shows it more or less parked in the same place for tomorrow....so I guess we'll see.
I like the RUC for short term...it does a pretty good job.
By the way... there is a system a little east of 94L that also bears watching. Don't think 94L is the only player in town!

Felix
Tropics are definitely interesting today
anyone doubting the existence of a weak low off tampa...here you go (from the miami forecast discussion issued at 918pm tonight:

AT THE SURFACE...TAFB HAS A 1013-1014MB SFC LOW ANALYZED
JUST SW OF TAMPA/ST PETE AREA AND THIS MATCHES WELL WITH SFC OBS AND LATEST RADAR LOOPS. THERE HAS BEEN A LARGE BLOWUP OF CONVECTION NEAR AND S/SW OF THIS SFC LOW THIS EVENING...LIKELY A COMBINATION OF THE UPPER TROUGH IN PLACE OVER THE EAST CENTRAL GULF COMBINED WITH PERHAPS INCREASED DIVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE. THIS MASS HAS BEEN SPINNING ITS WHEELS WITH LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS MAKING STEADY PROGRESS TOWARDS THE SW FL COAST.
Surfmon if you are still on the rain is starting to fall here in Vamo
My Elevation here is 10 feet. If the Rain wraps on the East side of the low we cat get big rains. so far its most on the west and south of the center.
I could be wrong but the coc appears to be just west of Bradenton?
baja area of interest west coast of fla s tampa in gom will stall for the night with rapid thunderstorm dev again tomorrow and a slight n ward movement along the coast shifting northeastward slightly by evening
I think 94L is developing into a tropical depression as we speak. It has looked very good and TD-like since the diurnal minimum and I wouldn't be surprised if it develops at 5 a.m.
Yah...RUCs showing the stall
1037. OUSHAWN
I wouldn't place all my bets on this low in the GOM going north. Steering currents are very weak right now and it could just as easily go west under the expanding ridge. This will be interesting to watch over the next 24-48 hrs. The one thing I do know is shear in the GOM has finally relaxed and now it appears to be pretty favorable for development and this may be a mid to upper level low but I don't think it would take long for something to happen.
94 L is not becoming a TD anytime soon, it needs a lot more convection to wrap around it coc, but who really knows what this thing is going to do....
the thing in the gulf is not going to drift north, its going to drift to the wsw for the next 24-36 hrs, then start to move to the north east
1040. condesa
Three waves- considered highly favorable for development- what do you all think?
100°W and south of 18°N
50°W and South of 17°N- strong convection
31°W and south of 17°N- strong convection interacting with the ITCZ
94l trackin towards the lower windwards looks wsw if its going to do it now is the time to kick itself in gear
dmax begins around 2am ends at the paleing of the sky our time
GMZ089-160930-
SYNOPSIS FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO
1030 PM CDT TUE JUL 15 2008

.SYNOPSIS...BROAD LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE NE GULF
THROUGH THU NIGHT THEN LIFT N OVER THE FL PANHANDLE ON FRI. A
TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CARIBBEAN ALONG 73W WILL MOVE INTO THE
YUCATAN LATE FRI AND SAT BRINGING AN INCREASE OF WINDS TO THE
GULF AND BAY OF CAMPECHE THROUGH EARLY SUN. OTHERWISE...A
RELATIVELY WEAK PRES PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF THROUGH SUN

Sounds like they used the GFS for this
1039, so it's going to turn around???
1045. msphar
sort of a horse race between 94L and WU fans tonight
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1030 AM EDT TUE 15 JULY 2008
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 16/1100Z TO 17/1100Z JULY 2008
TCPOD NUMBER.....08-045

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA...(LESSER ANTILLES)
FLIGHT ONE...TEAL 70
A. 16/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01AAA INVEST
C. 16/1545Z
D. 13.5N 56.0W
E. 16/1700Z TO 16/2200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO...TEAL 71
A. 17/0600Z, 1200Z
B. AFXXX 02AAA CYCLONE
C. 17/0400Z
D. 14.0N 60.0W
E. 17/0500Z TO 17/1200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: BEGIN 12 HRLY FIXES AT 17/1800Z
IF THE SYSTEM HAS DEVELOPED.
1046..

2 Flights?.. Dang they aint takin any chances..
I wonder what's up with the 'B.'......flight 1....invest.......flight 2...cyclone
Things that make ya go...hmmmmmm
The HH are in St.Croix awaiting the morning to see if they have something to fly into.
Well THIS is cool. I didn't notice until now that I've got 3 metars just hanging out in space east of PR in GR3...North to south...St. Maarten...Nevis...Antigua
Cool!
Thanks sport
1052. AndyN
What's going on with the site? I had to go to the French site to get here. I get Forbidden 403 when I type in www.wunderground.com.
whats up with the damn site today....did she get hacked...alot of suspicious stuff ...alot of problems for everyone...
I log on to see a slow blog tonight. But, somehow we have a tropical storm, an invest, and a disturbance in the GOM.

You'd think this blog would be packed...LOL
Quoting shoreacres:
The word from on high:

346. WundergroundDevs (Admin) 9:55 PM GMT on July 15, 2008
There was a problem with our DNS registrar that caused our domain to point back at the registrar's holding page. There will be residual problems until the corrected information spreads through the internet. Sorry for the trouble.

1057. AndyN
Look at the storms coming off coast of Africa. Pay close attention to last frame.Link
The site has been fine for me all day.
I've also been having alot of problems with this site.
AndyN, what do you see there? I don't think I can find what you're exactly trying to point out.
1061. AndyN
weatherblog: If you look at the last frame, its a whopper.....looks ominous....waves are really starting to lineup as we enter the peak part of the season.
Maybe next week we will see some waves develop. Don't look like much this week.
Good VERY early morning folks!

I'm up and wide awake for some unknown reason. Anyway I see that Invest 94L is gaining some much-needed convective activity. There is three distinctive new bursts of convection that are currently expanding and organizing to some extent. However the circulation seems to still remain in the mid to upper levels of the atmosphere at this time and in order for tropical depression formation to occur we would obviously need a evident low-level circulation. Conditions are marginally favorable at this time but I am beginning to think that if 94L doesent begin to get it's act together soon development will probably not occur.
1011. Tazmanian 1:57 AM GMT on July 16, 2008
i started my own site this site is a back up site fourm so when evere this site gos down or off line you would have a back up weatherunderground to come to


Also Taz, I'd suggest you to not have a site representing another site for your own protection of getting a copyright claim pulled against you. Also if your trying to get alot of traffic to your site by telling everyone to use it as a back-up site, YOu need to stop.
this blog has been unusually slow tonight????
It is becoming very difficult to identify any circulation with 94L. Is she opening up?
However I think there are hints of a circulation right under the deep ball of convection that has formed to the east of the whole wave axis.
but you promote your site all the time
caneaddict
1065. stillwaiting 12:25 AM EDT on July 16, 2008
this blog has been unusually slow tonight????



Well seeing its 12.30 am Wednesday morning, people have to go to work. Not me I'm out for the Summer, one advantage of working for the school system. But anyway, it could be people are getting tired of the storm that wouldn't die. Also the invest may not develop in to anything, seeing the environment is becoming less favorable for development.
1069 look how many post compared to the last 2 nights, they were in the 1200's i beleave at this time last night..
cat woman later this afternoon there was a server mess up on wu 75 percent of the people can not log in then get server errors and messages and not allowed into site
some like myself you and a few others have no problems just dont clear your cache or your history or log out or ya may not get back in
and there is quite a bit going on tonight,granted bertha was "hitting" bermuda yesterday..
1066, she's been open for about 24hrs now
Still waiting it could be also some posters had a problem getting on this site today and this evening. I saw on another forum. where posters were saying they couldn't get on this site. I bet some of the regulars that come here went to another forum to chat on. Just my guess
Keeper, Not really.
1076. JLPR
ahhh finally I could log in !!!! ha!!! =O
It took me like 2 hours lol to figure out a way
what happened to WU?
I was in the backup site just lurking =P

I ended up getting here through a proxy =(
men I got a few questions for any of the admins here!!!
all the time cane a dic pal dont lip off about someone if they are not here to defend themselves
go to dev blog theres a message there concearning the problem from admins

1073. stillwaiting 4:38 AM GMT on July 16, 2008
1066, she's been open for about 24hrs now


Wrong, she still has an associated area of low-pressure.
Baseball All-Star game: Tied 3-3 in the 12th inning.

Sorry it's off-topic, I just had to post it. =)
Hey, WU is back up!!! Alright. Earlier, like everyone else, I got an underconstruction site and then a forbidden message on my laptop at work. My home computer works fine. I see the problem was the domain pointing back....anyway, here is a story on the lengthening hurricane seasons. It was one of the last posts I made before the gremlins took over.

Link
1082. JLPR
1081. bluehaze27 4:45 AM GMT on July 16, 2008 Hide this comment.
Hey, WU is back up!!! Alright. Earlier, like everyone else, I got an underconstruction site and then a forbidden message on my laptop at work. My home computer works fine. I see the problem was the domain pointing back....anyway, here is a story on the lengthening hurricane seasons. It was one of the last posts I made before the gremlins took over.
-----
ahh lol I still cant access WU normally =(
Maybe they are fixing the problems little by little?
1079, not at the surface, if at all
Small flair up on 94l


Link
1085. 7544
94l looking good just before dmax starts this maybe the push it needs to get better organize at tonights dmax much better looking than last night before it hit dax if all goes well it could become a td by 11am wait and see
1086. JLPR
well im out =P
I hope tomorrow to find a completely fixed WU =)
goodnight everyone
you can now clearly see a surface low represented on tpa radar about 80 miles sw of sarasota..now if it can stay far enough offshore and have some consistent covection near the center we could have to watch it(i think we will just in case)..
1088. 7544
yes still waiting i cant tell if it moving if it sits there and spins for another 6 or 12 hours it may be something ill be watching both at dmax ty
1089. JLPR
before i go to bed look at this:
TCHP is rising super fast =O

TCFP
1090. JLPR
Also 94L has a much stronger vorticity at the surface than yesterday

WS
Regardless of whether something forms from this batch of waves or not, it clearly looks like it's going to be a hellacious August and September
1092. bocaman
Looking at the last infared frame (445 UTC), has 94L finally started something.
1093. bocaman


Look at the band starting to wrap itself around the SE side.
1094. 7544
yellow circle alert for the sw fla blob by the nhc for a 20% chance to form hmmmm this one goes north to pan handle if it does

94 should make it tonight weak it goes to texas strong new ballgame stay tuned were in dmax now

bertha due to move to se in 24hours round round she goes
ok - it only took me a bizillion hours to get here...on and off...and now it WAYYYY to late. what happene?
Good evening!

If anyone is wondering what's going on in the tropics, I have a tropical update on my blog. I spent a really long time working on it and would appreciate if anyone would go by and read it or leave a comment/question. Thanks!
I am un impressed with 94L for being D-Max. HH will be in there tomorrow at 5 PM EDT.. I am just gonna wait till then.
If 94L develops i can certainly see problem for Texas and gulf coast in general.
1089.

Yeah, it is which makes up for when it is started decreasing last month. lol
Huh. I planned to come on and decide for good that 94L is dead. Instead, it's still visibly rotating on shortwave (right beneath that big blob of convection, too), convection is flaring more than you'd expect even for dmax, the dry air is running out, and it's just about gotten to a significant increase in TCHP. I'm having trouble finding anything bad to say about it right now.

I planned to email my mother and tell her not to worry, 94L is on its way out. However, since I don't want to eat crow re. my mother, I'll put that off at least until tomorrow. ;)
Lets hope that it does go away... (94L i mean)
1102. msphar
Barbados will have a surprise in the morning.
1103. JLPR
quick very late at night post lol then back to bed again =D

94L is looking very nice I suspect that the low is under the blob in the west side of 94L
If this continues we may have a interesting scenario tomorrow morning
and if this continues the HH will surely fly to see if they find something =P
Lost in the blog...is this working for anyone???
Well what can I say, but this has been an active night for tropical weather:

1. The cyclogenisis the spun off of the lower trough axis yesterday is currently about to make it's way on shore thanks to the front still digging in the GOM. All indication say that this will make landfall in the Naples area south of Tampa as a minimal TDep (odds are will not be listed by the NHC unless it gets itself together after it crosses Florida).

2. 94L is becoming very impressive. The low lvl circ has finally caught up with the massive blob of convection and is moving to favorable areas. Should be a TDep or TS within a day.

3. The massive blob of convection behind 94L has been eaten up by the ITCZ, but the low lvl circ associated with that convection has made its N'ly jog and is now out of the ITCZ. Expect to see this develop as well.

4. Well what can be said of Bertha. She just won't die. However, her death will be soon. Presently, she is being sandwiched by the strong trough to it's W and the deep ULL to it's E. Bertha will wobble between these two but will eventually be absorbed by the ULL and the front and move N.
i starteda back up weatherground for thing this like this or when evere a site gos down

Link
The blog is back, thank goodness. 94L is really putting on a show this morning!
MORNING
it looks like mid lvel is trying to get under the big mass of convection. should that happen we will see a TD today
now 94L is improving but a little too late even if it reaches TS strength in the little time it has it will probably just die out afterwards unless it stays really far south conditions will rip it apart.
QS miss the area this morning . CANNOT TELL IF A CLOSED LOW IS FORMING
I'm having trouble finding anything bad to say about it right now.

lol the way you said that, it made it seem like you were just itching to downplay it. :)
Tropical Cyclone Warning #26 (0900z 16Jul)
==========================================
At 09:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Kalmaegi (985 hPa) located near 19.5N 123.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots with gusts up to 70 knots. The storm was reported as moving north at 6 knots.

Gale-force Winds
================
130 NM east from the center
110 NM west from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 22.9N 123.0E - 60 knots (CAT 2)
48 HRS: 26.5N 123.0E - 75 knots (CAT 3)
72 HRS: 30.3N 123.7E - 75 knots (CAT 3)
Philippines Atmospherical, Geophysical, Astronomical Services and Administration

Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #11
============================

Tropical Storm "HELEN" has slightly intensified and accelerated while it continues moving in a north direction.

Tropical Storm Helen (Kalmaegi) is positioned as of 4pm PST at 19.5ºN, 123.5ºE or 210 kms Northeast of Aparri, Cagayan. The system has 10 minute sustained winds remains at 50 knots (95 km/h) with gusts up to 65 knots (120 km/h).

Signal Warning Number 2 (60-100 km/h)
=====================================
Luzon Region

Northern Cagayan
Calayan Group of Islands
Apayao
Batanes
Ilocos Norte

Signal Warning Number 1 (30-60 km/h)
=====================================
Luzon Region

Rest of Cagayan
Abra
Kalinga
Mt. Province
Ilocos Sur
La Union
Pangasinan
Benguet
What's with the graphics on the website? The tropics front page graphic is missing and no graphics in Inv 94 are available???
1114. The whole website was done for a long time and I think it is just getting its act back together
Oh My Gosh I missed Wunderground so so much! I didn't know what to do with myself yesterday evening and this morning until I could finally get back on the site and it feels so good to be back!
Ok now back to the tropics. So is there a surface low down there by Fl and if so after it crosses Fl can anyone tell me which way it will go? I see 94L took it's sweet time waiting to finally get it's act together but I agree with the too late and too long crowd.
again, there seems to be something off the SC coast...and something hinted at it last night...I forget which model...Do any of you great minds have any thoughts? Thanks!!
Rainbow Imagery shows a 1013mb low off of the Fl panhandle coast so is this the surface low? Also I don't see anything off of the SC coast yet but I know there was models forecasting another low to form there.
anyone need therapy lol

there is a backup site(www.wund.com) just no blog
NC...that's it...seems to be a little bloblette out there...actually down by GA/Fl line..thanks...
The cmc develops something off the coast of Virginia in about 120 hours - but then again the cmc develops everything
Quiet on here this morning
Morning folks..

94L looks like it's still firing up convection, but I still dont see the circulation translating to the surface (last quickscat) *shrugs*

RUC looks to be showing the precip for this time much farther south than where it is and the GFS shows it in the same general area as the RUC (little more south of actual) and sends it over the peninsula overnight to the NE. NAM, show a slightly different solution....up the coast and then NE at the Big Bend area.

LOL...who knows *shrugs*
good morn all
94l is heading right for ya barbados convection still building looks to be aimed to cross southern windwards
1127. bocaman
To maintain the type of convection 94L has there is no way it is a mid-level circulation. It may be hard to visualize the LLC but it's there.