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Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.

Bertha may pose a long-range threat to the U.S.

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 12:43 PM GMT on July 05, 2008

Tropical Storm Bertha has maintained it's strength overnight, but is having trouble with Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) of 25°C--one degree below the threshold of 26°C considered beneficial for tropical storms. This morning's QuikSCAT pass missed Bertha, but last night's pass confirmed winds of at least 40mph. Satellite estimates of Bertha's strength have consistently put the storm's strength at 50 mph over the past day. The storm is under about 10-15 knots of wind shear.


Figure 1. Latest satellite image of Bertha.

The forecast
The models are now more confident that Bertha will not take a turn to the north east of Bermuda, with two models--the UKMET and NOGAPS--calling for the storm to pass very near the northern Lesser Antilles Islands by Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. These islands should anticipate the possibility of tropical storm conditions as early as Tuesday night, even though the current official track keeps Bertha well north of the islands. Bertha may be large enough to bring tropical storm force winds 100-200 miles from the center by Tuesday. A threat to the East Coast of the U.S. is now possible, with such an event most likely to occur about 7-10 days from now. It is also possible that high wind shear will tear apart Bertha (as predicted by the ECMWF model), or that the storm will recurve to the north just east of North Carolina, missing the U.S. The long range track of Bertha is highly uncertain, and it is too early to speculate how likely each of these scenarios is.

By Sunday morning, Bertha will be over SSTs of 26°C, which will warm to 27°C by Monday and 28°C Tuesday. this should allow Bertha to intensify to near Category 1 hurricane strength. However, by Tuesday, wind shear is expected to increase to 20 knots and remain high for several days, as Bertha encounters a branch of the subtropical jet stream. The higher shear should weaken the storm.

Elsewhere in the tropics
There are no threat areas to discuss in the tropical Atlantic, and none of the models are forecasting tropical storm formation in the next seven days.

I'll post an update by Sunday afternoon.
Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

ok Guys and Gals,

BBL.... We have a long time to watch Bertha and by Tuesday Nite as a cat 1 I think we all will have a answer to where she will go....

You all have a great Day

Taco :0)
Lol ok well fine we do need some rain in florida sooo a weak ts would add to the soil and plants and the everglades which has dried up
2505. subyjay
Is there a computer model that consistently performs best? Or is it a different one for every storm?
So What if it is misses the weakness.......

Why Has the Track shifted so north overnight?
2509. Patrap
There is a amazing amount of debate as to where the track will go.
The Storm remains well within NHC Guidance..
2510. PBG00
Lol ok well fine we do need some rain in florida sooo a weak ts would add to the soil and plants and the everglades which has dried up

You must not live in S Fla then..It has done nothing but pour for weeks!!! I hope you don't live near me because we do not need a TS..we are soggy enough thank you.

Still a long way out as well. Don't make yourselves crazy...Time will tell.
Sammy, i'm with you, SE Coast landfall. yes, i know long shot right now. but my call right now is SC landfall.
2505. subyjay 1:30 PM GMT on July 06, 2008
Is there a computer model that consistently performs best? Or is it a different one for
every storm?


Remeber They are Models But the models from The Fsu Page are good :


http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/
2514. Patrap
GOES-12 IR Loop GOM Link
JFV good morning, well continues west and I expected a slight shift south and west in the near term.

This morning's visible imagery showed Bertha producing deep convection near the COC but the reminder of the circulation is still embedded within dry air.

She moving over warmer SST which equals warmer air and more moisture capacity.

I am still not expecting any recurves until she west of the island of Bermuda.

I am still not ruling out the Carolinas northward nor the island of Bermuda but the Bahamas, Turks and Floirda and Georgia seem safe for now.

Dont forget Bertha's effects go beyond her actual impact. Rip tides is an example.
2512.

Shes nearly certain to make a us landfall.
2517. Patrap
The Models are all part of a Large Guidance Ensemble.All make a impact on the forecast Cone. But the Big 4 usually run the dynmanics for the cone spread.The outliers dont.
Lol ok well fine we do need some rain in florida sooo a weak ts would add to the soil and plants and the everglades which has dried up

You must not live in S Fla then..It has done nothing but pour for weeks!!! I hope you don't live near me because we do not need a TS..we are soggy enough thank you.

Still a long way out as well. Don't make yourselves crazy...Time will tell.



I live in the Same County Of you , South of you ..... Not Boyton Beach

Well We Sufferd A bad Drought ...

And Lake O still isnt back up to its high normal levels...



whats with the new spin near NOLA?
2520. Patrap
A good read on the NHC Models,
AN OVERVIEW OF NHC PREDICTION MODELS

Bernard N. Meisner
Scientific Services Division
National Weather Service Southern Region Link
Ok Lets Say Bertha Misses the Us.

What about that wave ESE of it? it Looked good of Yesterday
2507. JFV

Why did you say that to Sammy, Master?


Um...why not?
2523. PBG00
Sammy..my point is, I am not wishing any storms to come here..I have a house..and things to take care of..it costs me alot of money when a storm hits..so I am not with you in wanting a storm to hit S Fla..
What do i have to lose. nothing. I agree SE C
Patrap you have mail.
2526. MrSea
looks like bertha moistened the air out ahead of it
2523. PBG00 1:39 PM GMT on July 06, 2008
Sammy..my point is, I am not wishing any storms to come here..I have a house..and things to take care of..it costs me alot of money when a storm hits..so I am not with you in wanting a storm to hit S Fla..


True , I agree ... But There is a Chance unlike 2007 that we get hit with a Tc..

(I don't want a hurricane to hit south florida)

But i still think that its going to go west and then turn north .. over the bahamas or near the us

How long till we see advisory number 14 for Bertha?
2526. MrSea 1:40 PM GMT on July 06, 2008
looks like bertha moistened the air out ahead of it


Are Next Invest if it moves north ...
IP

1 hour and 17 minutes
2505. subyjay

This document, 2007 National Hurricane Center Forecast Verification Report covers model performance. Different models perform better at different forecast times and years.
Bertha is at about 16.4N, 43.3W right now according to QuikSCAT.
models are meant as guidance purposes only and not used for an final desination as things will and can change during the progression of time during any extreme weather event
2535. K8eCane
morning everyone
i still have not lost the fear in the pit of my stomach yet about this storm
i have a home and storms cost me a lot of money too
which i dont have right now
Judging By the Cloud Temp and Cover... i say she is Strengthing and i think we might have an up in the winds today

what about the dvorak?
2531.

i look forward...

although it will most likely be the same as last time.
2539. MrSea
2530. sammywammybamy 1:42 PM GMT on July 06, 2008
2526. MrSea 1:40 PM GMT on July 06, 2008
looks like bertha moistened the air out ahead of it

Are Next Invest if it moves north ...


I see nothing invest-worthy....
Hello everyone i just finished my morning blog. All comments are welcome good or bad. Thanks....TampaSpin update Link
2541. subyjay
2512. setfree7 9:34 AM EDT on July 06, 2008
Sammy, i'm with you, SE Coast landfall. yes, i know long shot right now. but my call right now is SC landfall.

Any idea where in SC? I live in Myrtle Beach, so I'm curious about your thoughts. Thanks!
2542. MZV
Is there a computer model that consistently performs best?

I don't think you'll get any better consensus among the watchers than among the models. LOL

They do have their "personalities" though. The Canadian tends to be itchy-trigger-fingered for identifying upcoming storms. The GFS seems to lock on to them and hold them longer (although the long range projections are questionable).

The wording in NHC advisories seem to give the most weight to the GFDL, GFS, and UKMET models, though with lighter weightings to the others.
i think it might be time for our people are working on the problem piture patrap
Sammy,

it remains unchanged for now

06/1145 UTC 17.3N 43.9W T3.0/3.0 BERTHA -- Atlantic Ocean

Hmmmm .. .She Is Certanily Beating up the Odds as She Gets Better Organized....

Maybe The NHC was right about a hurricane
hey everybody!
im leavin for Italy 2morrow i live on the coast of north carolina
can i get some feed back on what people think might happen
2.7 /1005.0mb/ 39.0kt
Ok...
2551. CATfour
I'am going to say a North Carolina landfall around were Isabel came in, in 2003 or the same place Bertha came in, in 1996.
We Will Learn Tommorw or wensday where she wants to go...

Just right now i would Look at her Strength and she How Organized she can get
2554. MrSea
2549. philliesrock 1:48 PM GMT on July 06, 2008
2.7 /1005.0mb/ 39.0kt


Its gotta be wrong, look where it has the storm center
weather456 you have mail.
2554. Didn't notice that. It must be way stronger near the CoC.
Morning Pat, Tampa

Conversation this morning reminds me of my house - every one disagrees just to disagree.

Bertha (Taken from the Tropical Outlook)

Forecast positions and Max winds

initial 06/0900z 17.3n 43.2w 45 kt
12hr VT 06/1800z 17.9n 46.1w 50 kt
24hr VT 07/0600z 18.7n 49.5w 55 kt
36hr VT 07/1800z 19.6n 52.5w 60 kt
48hr VT 08/0600z 20.4n 55.1w 65 kt
72hr VT 09/0600z 22.5n 60.0w 70 kt
96hr VT 10/0600z 24.5n 64.0w 70 kt
120hr VT 11/0600z 27.0n 67.5w 70 kt
2559. MZV
Does anyone else think that area to the SE of Bertha is showing some minor organization? Coriolis is weak down there, it could take a while. I haven't tried looping on it yet, just seems to have a little spiral signature to it visually.
2560. Patrap
Good Morning zoo,nice Sunday here .Link
One thing of great importance in my opinion. I think it is very important for Bertha to cross the 20N line at or before 55W or she might just stay south.
2562. Patrap
Well.I usually dont use the iggy feature,But its easier than er,being a substitute teacher,LOL
Good morning, gang!

I see the UKMET shifted east, but Bertha has shifted south as the steering has suggested it would do for a couple of days now. Expect the models to follow.

This thing has not played out yet. Anything can still happen including a CONUS landfall.
70Kt = About 80 Mph or a Little More
2559. MZV 1:54 PM GMT on July 06, 2008
Does anyone else think that area to the SE of Bertha is showing some minor organization? Coriolis is weak down there, it could take a while. I haven't tried looping on it yet, just seems to have a little spiral signature to it visually.


Yes i Have Also Noticed That ... No One thinks its invest worthy
2569. edith
WOW! An unrelentless, unimaginable, inconceivable, unbelievable, incredible, unthinkable, indescribable, beyond belief, undreamed-of, mind-boggling track WEST! LOL.
2570. Patrap
EFS 500 HPa Spaghetti Diagram Displays Link

Global 12 FT Wave Probability Link
2569. edith 1:58 PM GMT on July 06, 2008
WOW! An unrelentless, unimaginable, inconceivable, unbelievable, incredible, unthinkable, indescribable, beyond belief, undreamed-of, mind-boggling track WEST! LOL.



Yea the Track may have to shift west today....
JFV - its too early on a Sunday morning for all the sarcasm - please stop.
MLC,

The Track May be forced to move south west today
hi, if the center of Bertha now at 44w doesn't make a WNW movement will be south of next TF Point.
2576. Patrap
Back later after Mass..

Have a good morning posting...
2568. DestinJeff 9:58 AM EDT on July 06, 2008
2561. TampaSpin 1:55 PM GMT on July 06, 2008
One thing of great importance in my opinion. I think it is very important for Bertha to cross the 20N line at or before 55W or she might just stay south.

really...? 20N /55W, those coordinates look suspicously familiar. i am with you though, by default and about 20 posts that reference same.


Sorry for double posting i have had that in my blog the last 2 days.....i should have read backwards.

2575. HurakanPR 2:01 PM GMT on July 06, 2008
hi, if the center of Bertha now at 44w don't make a WNW movement will be south of next TF Point.


yup which would shift the track just north of the islands
Pat - that is a big glob of rain coming your way.

Having read all the information that I can find about the models and their accuracy, I don't think that anything past 3-4 days has improved.

That said, all the reliance on the 7-10 track is unrealistic. More important is the discussions of the conditions that could either aid the models or change them.

For now, anyone who is lurking needs to know there is a storm out there, where it will go is far from certain, and that it is certainly not time to panic for anyone.

I do get a little concerned about those who post with all the "omg". You are going to scare people who lurk that don't have a lot of knowledge.
2581. MZV
Now that I've done some looping I think I'll agree with the consensus that the SE blob near Bertha isn't doing anything.

Bertha has been improving nicely on the infrared, though. If she can do that out in the central Atlantic with all that dry air ahead of her, I bet she'd do quite well in Carribean or Bahaman water...
2574. Yeah, Sammy, I expect they will; but, that'll likely be temporary. Just looking at the new steering suggests a nwest movement now before turning back to the west once again.

But, if it makes it to 20n at or around 50w, that looks to be only brief as the track will likely move back to the west and maybe jog again to the swest. However, at 60w all of the steering levels show a continual movement to the nwest. And, it can still make it out to sea there, but it's going to be a more difficult turn imo. Also, it does put the northern islands in a close threat area, too. And, I still wouldn't rule out a CONUS landfall.

So many people on this blog have no idea what their talking about its so funny...not trying to be rude it's just an observation that I find quite amusing...
2583.

I agree..

Now We Sit and Wait for 11AM adv
Ugh the Models Are Going west again ........
HA! This is amusing

Link
2592. drs2008
there appears to be an interesting feature just east of the bahamas is that a small vortex?

2590. CatV 2:15 PM GMT on July 06, 2008
2586. MasterForecaster 2:11 PM GMT on July 06, 2008
So many people on this blog have no idea what their talking about its so funny...not trying to be rude it's just an observation that I find quite amusing...

I agree. Many have no idea what they're talking about. Chief among them, you.


O thats what he said i put him on ignore...
2595. MrSea
about all that forecast shear after 72 hours... if the GFS cant handle the storm, I am not going to trust its shear forecast either. I am not sure about that "arrested development" after 72 hours...and if shear is low, with those HOT water temps off the SE coast, we better watch out
11Pm Advisory coming out Soon......
2598. MrSea
lol that would be AM sammy
2599. CATfour
I think the weather ch. path of Bertha is curving the storm a little to much at the end of the period. They need to adj. it more to the south and west.Link
2600. IKE

2583. moonlightcowboy 9:09 AM CDT on July 06, 2008 Hide this comment.
2574. Yeah, Sammy, I expect they will; but, that'll likely be temporary. Just looking at the new steering suggests a nwest movement now before turning back to the west once again.

But, if it makes it to 20n at or around 50w, that looks to be only brief as the track will likely move back to the west and maybe jog again to the swest. However, at 60w all of the steering levels show a continual movement to the nwest. And, it can still make it out to sea there, but it's going to be a more difficult turn imo. Also, it does put the northern islands in a close threat area, too. And, I still wouldn't rule out a CONUS landfall.



Look what's ahead if it continues WNW>>>

Weaker? West?
5 am Friday path


Current path
2603. MrSea
Ike I did see that, if it goes NW itll have to fight quite a battle, but I believe it will pass south of the shear
2604. MZV
#2593 O thats what CatV said i put him on ignore...

CatV was automatically on ignore for me. I think the blog software must detect how many people have set a user on "ignore" - then that person defaults to "ignore" for everyone else beyond a certain threshold.
The Trolls are out in force today.....good luck all.......LMAO
Yes, Sammy,Im afraid that i have to agree with you Sammy.
i see things are getting tense in here
how often do the models "update" their predictions?? i learned alot last year on this blog, but have forgotten a great deal of the detailed stuff

her westerly track is surprising. i love how these things always do what they want to do with their own little minds, while we sit around for hours trying to predict their next move.

anyway,will check back after Mass
2611. IKE
2609...usually every 6 hours...some like the ECMWF it's 12 hours......
Hurricane Jeanne's track has to be there best on there:

Link
anyone who takes any action based on what someone here tells them at this point is a fool....really...seriously...I'm not kidding

and, btw, the folks here who actually know what they're talking about don't play that game...

so...caveat emptor....
I was getting so confused with the trolls i almost posted a porn site.......ROFLMAO
I for One Am Not An Idoit...

Okay Now Waiting For the 11:00 am Advisory ......

should come out in 10 min
ike you got mail.
2618. IKE
I had tropical storm conditions at my house yesterday afternoon from thunderstorms....a 50 MPH TS isn't a cat 3...nor will it apparently be.

I think shear will keep it from exploding...if it goes WNW...30+ knots of shear are waiting on it....unless the shear moves away.
2619. MZV
Maybe Dr Masters is waiting for the 11AM too in order to comment on it.
2594,the NHC has been almost perfect w/berthas' track thus far,it is a bit more southerly though,use the single frame loop and go to the first frame, the forcast position in 2-3 days is where bertha is now just a bit south of there first adv.
2614... nice lol


Im going to mass to.

A massive lunch....
I say "some people don't know what their talking about" and now im a troll? lmao...wow you guys all need to LIGHTEN UP...seriously
2615. presslord 2:32 PM GMT on July 06, 2008 Hide this comment.
all these good Catholics on here...for the record, I went to mass last night...

hehe.....i'll be going in an hour
2624. MrSea
2615. presslord 2:32 PM GMT on July 06, 2008
all these good Catholics on here...for the record, I went to mass last night...


Lol yea i never realized how many there were in here hahaha. I haven't gone to mass yet, but I'll be going to St. Patrick's Cathedral for mass later this morning. It'll be my first time there, and I'm going with the family, so it should be nice.
2600. You're right, Ike. Good point. I hadn't looked at the shear yet. Whoa! It's under 20 kts of shear right now with 30-40 kts out ahead to the nwest.

Yeah, that'll keep the tops blown off and Bertha is likely to remain weaker and subject to more low level steering which will eventually move her back to the swest I think.

I don't think she's gonna get to cane status for some time yet. Wow, this thing sure is getting interesting!
2627. 7544
sammywammybamy 2:39 PM GMT on July 06, 2008
This Feels Like the S. Florida Katrina ...

bingo then turns north its about time someone might have it right on
Masterforcaster, do you know yourself what are you talking about? Maybe a little touch of modesty will help you clear your mind.
has any one noted that little spin off the cast of FL??? a little ways???

Link
2625. moonlightcowboy 10:37 AM EDT on July 06, 2008

MLC read my blog please, i talked about the Shear......lol



TampaSpin Blog Link
gee...I sure hope somebody thinks to post the 11A updates here...
Is bertha trying to develop an eye????....hmmmmmm....look at the latest floater animation....
2634. MZV
sammywammy - in that vein, it reminds me of Floyd. A track far enough north to confound even the professionals, and cause advisories to be issued from Florida to Chesapeake.

But we still have a few days to go, yet before any serious talk of US landfalls make sense.
2635. IKE
15 GMT 07/06/08 17.4N 45.1W 50 1000 Tropical Storm


Moving almost due west.
yeah taz....lots of convection too
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 75NE 30SE 0SW 75NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 90SE 60SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 45.1W AT 06/1500Z
AT 06/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 44.2W

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 18.0N 47.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 45SE 30SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 18.9N 50.9W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 45SE 30SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 19.7N 53.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 60SE 45SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 20.5N 56.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 60SE 45SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 22.5N 60.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 35SE 25SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 75SE 50SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z 25.0N 64.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z 27.0N 66.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
2639. IKE
.Bertha moving briskly westward and forecast to strengthen...

At 1100 am AST...1500z...the center of Tropical Storm Bertha was
located near latitude 17.4 north...longitude 45.1 west or about 1185
miles...1905 km...east of the northern Leeward Islands.


Bertha is moving toward the west near 21 mph...33 km/hr. A general
west-northwestward motion with a gradual decrease in forward speed
is expected during the next couple of days...as Bertha remains over
the waters of the central tropical Atlantic. It is much too early
to determine if Bertha will eventually affect any land areas.


Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph...85 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next couple of
days.


Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 85 miles...140 km
from the center.


Estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb...29.53 inches.


Repeating the 1100 am AST position...17.4 N...45.1 W. Movement
toward...west near 21 mph. Maximum sustained winds...50 mph.
Minimum central pressure...1000 mb.


The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at
500 PM AST.


$$
Forecaster Brown
Morning all :~)

press, is that a hint you are getting to lazy too go and find it on your own? You becoming blog dependent ~)
2641. drs2008
there is a feature just east of the bahamas that is interesting is that a vortex ?
stormj...I need help...I've hit my blog bottom...please do an intervention...
i've said it before i say it again bertha is making her own rules
2629. whirlwind 2:42 PM GMT on July 06, 2008
sammy-

where it goes who cares.


its just entertainment. remember '05? A few hours glued to your TV as history was made?

Its either that or America's got talent...


Ive Been Here Since 2004 and Blogged And Learned alot... and Became a Good Blogger myself

And never Had i Heard a Idoitic Statment like that

Who Cares? The Maybe 500 Villagers Who Would Die If a Cat 5 Hit Hati ...

2633. finsterct 2:44 PM GMT on July 06, 2008
Is bertha trying to develop an eye????....hmmmmmm....look at the latest floater animation....


hahaha yea ok and there is a cat 3 over south dakota........its a weak tropical storm not a cane.dtorms ont form eyes at 1000mb.
2646. subyjay
2602. whirlwind 10:23 AM EDT on July 06, 2008
LMAO...

Whats funnier is that people actually come on here asking these idiots if the storm will hit them.

Sure... the NHC doesnt know, but some bored jack on this blog can tell you where its going.

Just watch the blog, scared folks come here asking that ALL the time...


I assume you are referring to me since I asked "where in SC?" a bit earlier in this thread in reference to someone's prediction. Let me clarify: in no way do I actually think that some random person on a thread on a website could accurately predict something that NO ONE else in the known world can, nor would I make any decisions based on same. I was simply inquiring to see if that person was willing to go a bit further in their supposition (which clearly he was not since I got no response). Kind of a "put your money where your mouth is" thing.

At least I was able to provide a bit of amusement for some of you today. You're welcome!
Yea, what is forming east of the Bahamas? Latest wv and ir loops show rapid development.
BERTHA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 21 MPH...33 KM/HR. A GENERAL
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AS BERTHA REMAINS OVER
THE WATERS OF THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC. IT IS MUCH TOO EARLY
TO DETERMINE IF BERTHA WILL EVENTUALLY AFFECT ANY LAND AREAS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.
2649. hahaguy
about the same track
Track starts slowing Bertha down.

2651. MrSea
the bahamas is just a wave that was once the TUTT and is just garbage to me lol.... the WV loop shows a general WSW dive of Bertha
2652. MZV
There's been a nice flare-up near 25N 69W today as well. Anything happening here? Pretty warm water in that area.
Guys don't respond to Whirlwind, everyone including himself knows he's a troll he has always been a troll and still is.
2655. MrSea
yea philliesrock if this storm stalls over hot waters after 120 hours....well.... i think you guys know what happens
2650. philliesrock 9:50 AM EST on July 06, 2008

That makes sense...Bertha would slow down as the ridge weakens and steering currents slaken.
2658. drs2008
how about that spin east of florida
2659. h6
All these models seem to favor best case scenarios. That looks pretty ignorant to me.
What about a worst case scenario. What if Bertha behaves like ALLEN back in 1980 ?
2660. MrSea
MZV it wont develop
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 06/1500Z 17.4N 45.1W 45 KT
12HR VT 07/0000Z 18.0N 47.8W 50 KT
24HR VT 07/1200Z 18.9N 50.9W 55 KT
36HR VT 08/0000Z 19.7N 53.5W 60 KT
48HR VT 08/1200Z 20.5N 56.0W 65 KT
72HR VT 09/1200Z 22.5N 60.5W 70 KT
96HR VT 10/1200Z 25.0N 64.0W 70 KT
120HR VT 11/1200Z 27.0N 66.5W 70 KT


$$
FORECASTER BROWN
2662. MrSea
drs its a ULL, and too close to land, nothing to worry about for now
It has to slow before it turns much North....they always tend too....
2658.

I think someone was saying that was an ULL yesterday.
Morning!

Its seems that the GFS, GFDL, ECM, CMC, & NOGAPs all in pretty good agreement on bringing bertha to a crawl around 60-65 west while the approaching trof picks here up.I also see the UKMET has now just about joined the pack and is now more north with its solution.The way i see it now its looking increasingly unlikely bertha will affect the U.S. in the coming week as the trof digging forcasted by the GFS model later next week should and i stress should do the job.

NOTE:Bermuda might want to keep an eye on things.
2664. extreme236 10:55 AM EDT on July 06, 2008
2658.

I think someone was saying that was an ULL yesterday.


Yep it is an ULL as noted yesterday.
I look at the track of the 1996 Bertha to where 2008 bertha is at now . So to me the ? is what was the center of the
bermuda high than and where is it today. The high looks strong and i think it is not going to turn north anytime soon. I think the Bahamas should start to get ready for a cat 2!




It's under 20 kts of shear now. I don't see intensification happening if she takes a turn to the nwest. Shear has increased 10-15 kts in the past 24 hours to her nwest.
2670. IKE
2665.....

You need to be banned...why you haven't been is beyond me.........you want people to be affected by systems...specifically where you live so you'll have $$$$$$$$$$.
Bertha is definately starting to peak my interest now. It is also appearing that she may be stronger
than some of the initial early forecasts had projected. Has anyone Noticed? a strong Cape Verde
storm in early July, possibly threatening the east coast is not what I was expecting to see this year
so soon. wow. Im thinking this may be a sign of another 2005 type season. Good to see the Gang
is all here though! It promises to be an interesting week.
Something that I noticed (and that's all it is, an observation, nothing more) is that the surface forecasts show high pressure building back further to the north east of Massachusetts after the trough sweeps through. If Bertha doesn't get picked up and swept out to sea, then the rebuilding ridge may push her back west towards populated areas. The east coast should continue to monitor this as it's not completely certain what effect the trof ejecting off the east coast will have on Bertha's track. Some of the models (those on the southern portion of the envelope, mainly) are beginning to trend towards the trof being less pronounced than previously anticipated as it moves east.

A lot of this is hypothetical.
It just keeps going west!
2665.

Lets see here Whirlwind. Lets look at the trollish comments that you have posted just today.

2602. whirlwind 10:23 AM EDT on July 06, 2008
LMAO...

Whats funnier is that people actually come on here asking these idiots if the storm will hit them.

Sure... the NHC doesnt know, but some bored jack on this blog can tell you where its going.

Just watch the blog, scared folks come here asking that ALL the time...



where it goes who cares.


its just entertainment. remember '05? A few hours glued to your TV as history was made?

Its either that or America's got talent...


Yea I'm sure NOLA thought that was a great episode of America's Got Talent. If you don't like what people what people are asking/saying on here then leave.
Looked at discussions archive since 7/3 and compared forecasted locations for 7/7 at 1200z. It seems they keep correcting it southward as lat has gone from 21.5N to 18.9N. Is this a trend do you think?
just calm down now,its a little far off to say the bahamas should get ready for a cat2.,not probable,but not impossible,just a little premature nieghbor
2680. primez
Terra, wouldn't that make it a Long Island Express type scenario?
I'm thinking I have to agree with what Drak was saying. It looks like Bertha is gonna be a fish right now. Even though the trough is forecasted to weaken by some models, the High should weaken as well, and provide the necessary weakness for what could be Hurricane Bertha to move out to sea.
2682. 7544
imo i belive bertha will be right where the blob ull is now just east of so fla . when all is said and done then she will either turn or keeps on going west west
Navy forcast Track


NHC forcast Track
2680. primez 10:02 AM EST on July 06, 2008

I can't say. It may, it might not. I've been looking at other forums on other websites and people have brought up countless examples from Floyd to Isabel. Chances are there it probably will curve away from land.
2683.

The Navy track is and will be the same as the NHC track.
2687. IKE
Well sure, those Hatian villagers would care. But it's not like there's a shortage of Hatians. Heck, they're populating themselves off the island.


Do you realize what you just typed?
Also for those wondering about recon its fixed for 7/8/08.

Here is the data...

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.
A. POSSIBLE AIR FORCE FLIGHT ON TS BERTHA,
8/18Z, 20N 57W AND CONTINUED 12 HRLY FIXES.


Bertha is certainly much smaller than she used to be but she is compact and has some cold cloud tops. I expect the convection to expand more as she moves over warmer waters. Strengthening to about 50 knots is reasonable for today.

Go play you play station
dont feed the trolls
Nothing but a wish caste
This feels like a Katrina
I have been hear longer than you
A cat 5 hitting Haiti


I love the first real storm of the year!!!!

All we a missing is the storm and some one playing weatherman with MS paint

I dont mean to pick on any one, but this can be just a little funny
2869. Extreme, I don't think she's gonna do any strengthening under 20 kts of shear. Do you?
Again this morning I would suggest patience is a virtue. As with most weather events the models usually have a good handle on things 48-72 hours before the event. One might glean some small hints of how pressure patterns may transpire near the east coast by analyzing how the current and most recent events progressed. Though I caution that no 2 events are exactly the same. We should have a better handle on how events with the first trof will unfold some time Tuesday.
2694. CatV
2687. IKE 3:05 PM GMT on July 06, 2008

Do you realize what you just typed?


Uh . . . Yeah. Is there something untrue or inaccurate in there?
H23 I can't believe that you are so confident bertha will miss the conus.
TROLL WARNING ISSUED
trolls today at times abundant follow by periods of calm if you see a troll refrain from direct conversation to avoid prolong periods of trollish conversation
this is a warning that trolls are present and may become quite trollish at times.
2691. DestinJeff 11:06 AM EDT on July 06, 2008
i sure suck at picking out center on satellite...

little help. vis, ir, wv, anything.


Look at the lower level clouds its the yellow color on the RGB loop... See where its spi9nning into and find where the center of the spinning is.

RGB Loop.
Link
2699. Patrap
A fellow wu-blogger in Haiti,..Link

He even has a good Photog's eye. Link
2692.

That 20 knots of shear that is supposedly over the system isn't doing much to it now. Anyway, the NHC says the shear won't be much of an issue and I'm sure there looking at the same maps we are.

SHEAR IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN LOW...SO GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS
2701. MZV
CrackerLogic, that's why most of the sane people migrate over to the other blogs (Weatherguy03, StormW, Hurricane23, etc) during the height of the season.

Unless of course, you just like reading the anarchy here! :-)
nobody seems to be concern with the area near 6N 38w there is a small spin there and the conditions are favourable except for some dry air ahead of the system. threa needs to gain a little latitude before any serious organisation cantake place. the area is still a long way from land
2703. 7544
wheres the blob east of fla heading west too
2704. IKE
From the morning discussion from Mobile,AL...

"Long term...(monday through saturday)little change expected through
the first half of the upcoming week. A deep moist layer and an upper
level trough nosing into the eastern sections should be enough to
keep probability of precipitation between 40 and 60 percent Monday and Tuesday. As the upper
trough moves off to the east...high pressure in the middle and upper
levels will push in from the west
...bringing a decrease in the
number of showers and thunderstorms over the area and a slight
increase in the afternoon high temperatures."...........


There's the trough that'll turn it.......
2705. Drakoen
Good morning everyone
Okay well Im gonna keep flagging whirlwinds comments until he get's banned.

Also, keep an eye on the area at about 24N/69W. It looks to be a cut-off low of some sort and conditions are favorable.
Bertha in my opinion is looking impressive this morning.Cane intensity is a good bet.

Infrared view...

MZV

what other blogs are there?

Anarchy meetings are fun!!!!!
2708.

She looks pretty consolidated and compact on the visible imagery. Is there an inner core feature with her yet?
There is little reason to doupt the GFS model forcast on this digging trof that eventually will scoot bertha out to sea.

Here's my previous post:

Its seems that the GFS, GFDL, ECM, CMC, & NOGAPs all in pretty good agreement on bringing bertha to a crawl around 60-65 west while the approaching trof picks here up.I also see the UKMET has now just about joined the pack and is now more north with its solution.The way i see it now its looking increasingly unlikely bertha will affect the U.S. in the coming week as the trof digging forcasted by the GFS model later next week should and i stress should do the job.

NOTE:Bermuda might want to keep an eye on things.
Hi everyone, it looks like the models are settling in on the curve more this morning...
2716. 7544
Also, keep an eye on the area at about 24N/69W. It looks to be a cut-off low of some sort and conditions are favorable.

in what dirrection will this start to track
By the way the SHIPS model is still calling for light upper level conditions in bertha's path.
200 miles due East of Miami

2716.

Probably NW or somewhere in that direction.
2714. hurricane23 3:19 PM GMT on July 06, 2008

An analysis of how the trof transpires in the upper levels does leave margin of error as NHC has mentioned in their discussions. ALL interests should continue to monitor the progress of this storm.
2723. PBG00
Odd, can you shrink that post and resize it?

2724. PBG00
Master, they are in the rules of the raod..the guidelines for banning include, but are not limited to, starting arguments, spam, inappropriate posting..ect..during the height of the season, and especially when a storm is threatening, those rules are strictly enforced.
TD 5-E has to be one weird tropical cyclone. It looks like its trying to organize over the warm SSTs and moist environment but its getting hammered with easterly wind shear. I'm having trouble finding a defined center.
2726. 7544
thanks extrem
2728. IKE
Model runs....Link

Biggest threat...outer banks....slight.

Bermuda.......
Morning again, everyone.

2601. TampaSpin 10:23 AM EDT on July 06, 2008

Interesting thing about the two graphics u posted, TS, is that Bertha is almost exactly where NHC forecast her to be today. I think she was about 1 degree further west than expected, prolly due to a slightly faster than expected motion. This is what I keep saying to people who somehow feel NHC forecast is "wrong" because NHC is forecasting a turn. But this westward and WNW motion was anticipated by NHC. So far, Bertha hasn't done anything that wasn't expected.

Today, however, is when they originally expected to see a turn. Even they aren't any longer expecting that LOL. I'm also glad to see UKMET model taking the beeline off the SE Bahamas. Hopefully it won't shift back, either.

2730. cg2916
Bertha looks like it will weaken before it strengthens. There's dry air ahead of it.
2718. That sure puts Bertha in perspective! She sure isn't looking like much right now!

Let's be real! She's fairly puny! She's a weak storm and that trough is really gonna have to dive, too. Models are gonna flip-flop even more. And, no storm generally does well in 20 plus kts of shear. I just don't believe strengthening is on tap for Bertha. At least not anytime soon. Frankly, I wouldn't be surprised if she eventually goes ****poof****! I think she's gonna remain fairly weak and continue to drift mostly west.

It's still hundreds of miles away and I just don't feel like blob watching again, today! So, I'm getting out to enjoy some of it!

Have a good Sunday, all!
The new Un-Accu Cone of Death~!
Link
2724. PBG00 3:29 PM GMT on July 06, 2008
Master, they are in the rules of the raod..the guidelines for banning include, but are not limited to, starting arguments, spam, inappropriate posting..ect..during the height of the season, and especially when a storm is threatening, those rules are strictly enforced.


Well those are pretty vague...what might start an arguement with one person doesn't mean it will start an arguement with another person...spam and inapropriate posting are both obvious as in any blog...you feel me?
NHC track currently on the western end of the model consensus.



The GFDL has backed off on its intensity forecast significantly down from its Cat 3 forecast on the 06Z run. I would say there is a pretty good intensity consensus to call for Bertha to peak at 75 knots instead of 70 knots as the NHC said.

2732.

If you look at the satellite imagery, that 20 knots of shear really isn't doing anything to her. She is quite consolidated with cold cloud tops near and over the center. If the shear was that bad, her center would be exposed, and its not. Warm SSTs are allowing her to generate those colder cloud tops and I imagine as the SSTs continue to warm she will expand some. She looks to be on her way to reaching 50 knot intensity by the end of the day.
2737. IKE

2730. cg2916 10:31 AM CDT on July 06, 2008
Bertha looks like it will weaken before it strengthens. There's dry air ahead of it.


Looks like it's getting sheared some...from the SSW....

You can see the trough that is suppose to kick her out...on this water vapor loop...over the Ohio valley....Link
2730.

The dry air hasn't weakened her before over those 25 Celsius waters why would it be any different now? lol
I agree that there is some shear over her, as you can see on the infrared imagery, but her center is still tucked under the convection. I don't think it will be that big of deal for her however.
Can somebody provide a link to the SHIPS intensity forecast? Thanks in advance...
You would think after all this time and the Hundreds of storms we have all endured here people
would finally realize that the models are usually always off at 5-7 days. The models are gonna
bounce around alot on this one. Trust me before we know anything definatively on Bertha the
models will most likely go back and forth on each run. The best forecasts at this pont are little
more than educated guesses right now! lol Bertha promises to be fun to watch though.
Immaculate day in the Dominican Republic. I've rarely seen the sea so tranquil

img src="Photobucket" alt="" />
2747. beell
Photobucket

The ridge weakness continues to rotate around to the NW. Still anchored on the N end by the ULL. It is modifying the low level flow to the NW of TS Bertha from WSW/W to NW.

Run the SSD Atlantic wide view visible loop and take a hard look.

Most of us agree that a fast moving storm has difficulty turning. The same should be applied to the flow in which she is embedded. If the flow is turning it will slow down. So will Bertha. A guess from me regarding the forcasted slow down from the NHC.

The following was mentioned yesterday by the NHC and has been repeated in todays 11AM discussion:

...AS THE RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC BEGIN TO WEAKEN.

Short on time for a better blog entry but I think there remains good support to turn this thing.
StormHype writes, " Still trying to figure if a bunch of the usual round-the-clock posters are really prisoners with computers, or free people who can't find nothing better to do on a beautiful holiday weekend. Amazing."

Question to pose...Are you talking about yourself as you are on here? LOL

Anyone know of a blog that is more devoted to weather discussions as this one really can veer off course.


2742. TerraNova 11:42 AM EDT on July 06, 2008
Can somebody provide a link to the SHIPS intensity forecast? Thanks in advance...

Terra the links to SHIPS intensity output is on my page.
does it look like Bertha is going to hit east coast of FL?
2751. Patrap
ahhhhhhhhh.....AirTrafficMan,Turn right to 090 ,,and maintain Flight Level 230...for vector to other weather blogs here. Link

does it look like Bertha is going to hit east coast of FL?

Nope
Stormhype. You are missing the point. It is the potential of Bertha to become a possible cat2
storm and then effect the US. It is the first time in almost 3 years that a storm even has any
potential threat for the east coast. I believe it's a stretch at this point myself though. but atleast
it is getting people engaged and ready for the 2008 season which is a good thing.
#2741....456

That just won't do...a reasoned , rational forecast..leaving open several possibilities...

How dare you?!?!?!?!?!
StormHype

I am waiting for The Line of Terror and Doom (sponsored by Home Depot ) to pass over Clearwater as a cat 5. I am on the way to the store now to get my pop-tarts and beer!!!!!!!
Roger Patrap..Wilco.. turning right to 090..request deviation 20 right of course for weather...wait a minute...I give the orders!! ha. thanks much.
2748. AirTrafficMan 11:47 AM EDT on July 06, 2008

Anyone know of a blog that is more devoted to weather discussions as this one really can veer off course.


Hey, I'm not letting a few "misguided" types run me off MY blog . . . . LOL

We usually get good discussions here. Unfortunately, people tend to let the few foolish posters hold them hostage instead off [-]ing them right out of the blog.

I do know that some of the best wx related commentary as it relates to tropical systems can be found on Dr. M's blog. Many of the minds here are trained, whether schooled or self-taught, to think about and analyse what is happening in the tropics. I do know that very little that catches the eyes of NHC personnel gets by our bloggers. I have a lot of respect for people on here; it's a pity we don't just boot the timewasters when there's a storm in progress.
Bertha's center is under cold cloud tops. Shear doesn't seem to be a big issue.



2764. o311
I guarantee the models will slowly shift west at least by tuesday. I predict u.s. land fall in the southeast, just to be daring.
mmmm What's that of referring to people as "those Hatians"!
2757. presslord 11:54 AM AST on July 06, 2008

lol lol
Is it my eyes playing tricks on me or in the last few Sat loops Bertha seems to have taken a slight dive to the south of due west.
good morning to all..ok..good afternoon now...after the latest runs, when is the turn supposed to take place? I am seeing with my inexperienced eye, by Tuesday?
mmmm What's that of referring to people as "those Hatians"!

Who said that?
On visible imagery, Bertha is attempting to expand her mass. Some of the low clouds south of her center is beginning to deepen...but at a slow rate and that is due to dry air.
My My latest 12z GFS has bertha as an open wave.
2770.

By looking at the visible imagery it looks like Bertha has a tight inner core of some sort. I can notice this feature better on Dr. M's satellite on his blog post if you scroll up the page.
Bertha has a good tight circulation but is looking kinda small. History shows smaller storms
trend further west when left uninhibited by troughs etc. I remember "Andrew" was early and
also looked this way before he hit the gulf stream and smashed florida back in the 90's.


2751. Patrap

lol
She's define nontheless

2771.

That has to be a faulty run of some sort as it starts her off as a barely closed low.
2760. extreme236

Circumventing a ban will likely get you one as well.

Wise up folks. This isn't all that hard.
Latest vis floater on Bertha:

2771
We go from hurricane to open wave?? Seems pretty inconsistent.
Hi, Still, don't see the northwestward move of Bertha to catch the next forecast TF Point,and she is approaching 46w.
2777.

Well if I get a ban I hope the other trolls do to.
2782. MZV
I have to agree that shear is not much of a problem for Bertha *right now*. Think back to Alberto... THAT was what a sheared system looks like. Bertha is doing pretty well for the conditions.
456 the blog is BERTHARISED to day and the other area south east of it is totally disregarded. i guess the threat from this disturbance is not real for the CONUS right now. let us wait for a couple of days when it might be apparent that system will head for the GOMEX then all hell will break loose. In the meantime i will continue to monitor this system as it appears to have the potential to be the next name storm
2780, that is what I'm thinking too. Bertha needs to take that momentum wnw or nw.

Another shot of Bertha and the Antilles

2765. HurakanPR 12:01 PM EDT on July 06, 2008
mmmm What's that of referring to people as "those Hatians"!

[-]minus and [!]flag, Hura. These are people who are not talking about the weather, and they are not talking about anything else that is sensible, either.
Agree Stormhype, including you.
Weatherfreak ,Ike did a few post back.
2784.

Certainly looking a little better organized and not even close to what the wacko GFS was showing on that run.
456,
thoughts on the GFS now with an Open Wave?
Morning all. Everybody's fired up as usual!
2792. Patrap
Morphed Integrated Microwave Imagery at CIMSS (MIMIC)
Version 1 TS Bertha
Vmax 45knts Link



Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies
Space Science and Engineering Center / University of Wisconsin-Madison

Tropical Cyclones ...A Satellite Perspective Link

Frequently Asked Questions Link

2783. stoormfury 12:12 PM AST on July 06, 2008

Yea...I guess we have days to watch the other system but for now Bertha seems to the highlight of the Atlantic, and i dont blame her...lol
I keep telling ya the models are all goofy right now. They all show an acclerated
unnatural movement of the ridge which does not look normal at all to me.

give them 48 hours and the NHC will know with less guesswork! until then she is
weak, small and un affecting any land for the time being. But still interesting to watch.
I am just excited to have a storm to track with potential even if she's a fish. lol
2795. Patrap
WAVE tracking winds Link
2796. IKE
12Z GFS...Bertha at 120 hours + the system coming off of Africa....

Link

2790. sporteguy03 12:16 PM AST on July 06, 2008
456,
thoughts on the GFS now with an Open Wave?


Just looked at it...Even though wind shear may increase some over Bertha, it isnt suppose to leave it an open wave, thats quite a weakening there from hurricane to open wave. Not going with it.
2796.

I'm gonna toss out that run...unless I see that again on the 18Z and 00Z runs I'm not even gonna pay any attention to that.
Bahahurican,agree with you 100%. very well said.
2801. IKE
The GFS has been showing a weaker system for a few runs...it did that last year on systems.
The only model I need is my common sense.
2804. IKE
I wouldn't put a lot into the strength it shows...it would show Dean last year at 1008 mb's when it was a strong hurricane.
Well the GFS isn't an intensity model so its not worth putting much stock in to how strong it shows a system to be.
2806. IKE
2803. JFV 11:25 AM CDT on July 06, 2008
The models seriously need to get their acts together, this constant unpredictabilty from then is simply not tolerable any longer to say the least! I saw it too already IKE! where does it take it by the way?


Parks it south of Bermuda...I guess she's considering a vacation on the tax-free island.
2802.

Yea and my Common Sense 12Z model run doesn't show an open wave lol
im with you 0311. probably an error in Judgement but I have looked it over made an novices informed decision and I heard JIm Cantore was in Miami!! lol
2809. beell
2787.
Good vid JFV,
Thanks
GFS has been an outlier for a few runs.. so its either dead wrong or its right.
2811. MZV
#2787 - Yes that vid from Hurricanecity was interesting. I would agree that when things get tough, the low-level flow predominates on movement. (I remember watching the upper levels of TS Chris get completely separated from the low level... which continued moving west.)
NEW BLOG
new blog
2815. WXHam
NHC Model Composite over Google Earth. img

2816. msphar
Should miss the islands and Puerto Rico as it continues to climb in Latitude the next couple of days.
JFV great vid! So it backs up that the storm will stay more west than north. now with the slow down in speed we should see a near cat2 close to the Bahammas.
an interesting model