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Bertha heads towards Bermuda

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:13 PM GMT on July 11, 2008

Hurricane Bertha continues trundling along towards Bermuda, but is not in a hurry to get there. The storm has a rather sloppy appearance on satellite loops, thanks to the fact that the eyewall dissolved last night, with a new, much larger eye taking its place. Bertha will probably start to intensify today now that this Eyewall Replacement Cycle (ERC) is done. Wind shear is low (less than 10 knots) and water temperatures are warm (28°C). Shear if forecast to remain below 10 knots until Sunday, but the water temperatures will gradually cool to 26°C by the time Bertha reaches Bermuda's latitude on Sunday. Intensification back to Category 2 status seems probable, and Bertha still has an outside chance at reaching Category 3 status again. The Air Force Hurricane Hunters will make their first flight into Bertha this afternoon to check on the storm's strength.

_
Figure 1. Forecast of wave heights for 8am EDT (12 GMT) on Saturday, July 12, from the World Wave Model. Wave heights in excess of 4 meters (13-14 feet) are likely near the center of Bertha.

High surf is already beginning to affect Bermuda, and the World Wave Model (Figure 1) predicts that waves will continue to build at Bermuda through Sunday as the storm approaches. The Bermuda Weather Service is predicting waves of 9-13 feet in the island's outer waters by Sunday. There is about a 47% chance the island will experience sustained winds of tropical storm force (40 mph), according to the latest tropical storm wind probability forecast by NHC. None of the computer models currently foresee that hurricane force winds will impact the island, but given the very weak and unpredictable steering currents forecast to affect Bertha by Sunday, the storm could easily approach closer to the island than the current official forecast. Wind shear is expected to rise above 20 knots on Sunday and Monday, and this could knock Bertha down to tropical storm strength by Monday. Bertha could affect Newfoundland as a tropical storm in a week's time, as predicted by the GFDL model.

Elsewhere in the tropics
There are no threat areas to discuss in the tropical Atlantic. Three out of four of our reliable computer models are predicting that a tropical depression may form between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands 5-7 day from now. These models did a pretty good job forecasting the formation of Bertha this far in advance, so the potential of another Cape Verdes-type storm forming next week needs to be taken seriously.

I'll post an update Saturday morning.
Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Good morning, everyonge.

Quoting stoormfury:
yes pottery and iam abit concern because next weekend is carnival weekend here


I'm a bit concerned myself because a group of GGYA (Governer-General's Youth Awards) students and chaperones are due to visit St. Lucia at the end of the month.
holy mackeral - just read back all the pages from last night...glad i wasn't here! Hope today is a better day... :)

good morning everyone

A couple of features of interest. First, the surface low with the wave just East of the Islands is still evident on quikscat and visible imagery but is weak. Convection is much stronger than yesterday and shear is low enough to permit development. If it does develop it looks to be slow and would likely spin up near 59W at the earliest.

The second area is also a low closer to the W coast of Africa. This is the feature the models develop and it does bear watching although it is poorly organised at the moment.

Quoting IKE:
I'm also curious as to why a few folks come on this blog and say...."what's the latest on?"...."Where is X suppose to go?"....etc....isn't that what WU is here for? Everything is pretty much available on this website....


I think some people use those questions as a conversational gambit, like saying "Boy, it's hot outside!" or "How 'bout them Rays!" at the water cooler.
1503. melwerle 8:31 AM EDT on July 12, 2008

It was a joke in here last nite i don't think i posted 2 notes......i just watched and read all the crazies......lol
1507. franck
BAMM has Bertha visiting Bermuda again.
I know Tampa - I saw one of your posts (it was actually quite funny) and you got your head chewed off. I'm glad I stayed in my bed and watched "Deadliest Catch"...I think I found my new career (giggling).
1504. kmanislander 8:33 AM EDT on July 12, 2008

So kman u are suggesting early or mid next week before we see another named ATL storm?
1508. melwerle 8:37 AM EDT on July 12, 2008
I know Tampa - I saw one of your posts (it was actually quite funny) and you got your head chewed off. I'm glad I stayed in my bed and watched "Deadliest Catch"...I think I found my new career (giggling).


Mel, i knew when to jump back under the Covers........lol
Does anyone know how catastropheadjusters (Sheri's) friends made out at the hospital?
1513. IKE
Quoting BahaHurican:
Quoting IKE:
I'm also curious as to why a few folks come on this blog and say...."what's the latest on?"...."Where is X suppose to go?"....etc....isn't that what WU is here for? Everything is pretty much available on this website....


I think some people use those questions as a conversational gambit, like saying "Boy, it's hot outside!" or "How 'bout them Rays!" at the water cooler.


Probably...good point.
Blog question:

Who was it last year who was keeping track of locations of various bloggers? I think we had gotten at least one rep blogger from the entire Caribbean community except ABC islands and Cuba . . . and even Cuba I think we picked up a blogger from the Guantanamo area.
1509. BahaHurican

Earliest would likely be mid to late next week unless one of those 2 waves does something dramatic over the weekend. neither one looks to be in any hurry to develop.

1517. IKE
Quoting StormW:
1485. pottery 7:59 AM EDT on July 12, 2008
Storm, your take on 11n 47w this am. ?


It's so, so.

I'm more interested in 35W, Looking at the following loops, it appears to have a better cyclonic turning, near the convection.

RGB LOOP

DVORAK LOOP

Sorry it took so long...power went out for a second time this morning.




I see that area...I'll be checking on it today.
But Ike I agree it can be annoying, especially if the person asks one of those impossible to answer questions and then complains when nobody answers . . . LOL

It's worse than people saying "the Carolina coast" . . . .
1519. IKE
Quoting BahaHurican:
But Ike I agree it can be annoying, especially if the person asks one of those impossible to answer questions and then complains when nobody answers . . . LOL

It's worse than people saying "the Carolina coast" . . . .



Yeah...that all happened yesterday.
Hey Storm (or anyone really)

Can you please tell me what this is? Is it accurate? I don't want to go out sailing today if there is a 70% chance of tstorms where I'm at...

Link
1521. IKE
From the latest discussion...

"...Tropical waves...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 45w/46w south of 15n
moving west 15 kt. A low to middle level cyclonic circulation
center is along the wave near 10.5n. Scattered strong showers
and thunderstorms in individual clusters from 10n to 12n between
46w and 48w."
Quoting BahaHurican:
But Ike I agree it can be annoying, especially if the person asks one of those impossible to answer questions and then complains when nobody answers . . . LOL

It's worse than people saying "the Carolina coast" . . . .

Because we probaly don't understand and think you have the answer were looking for. Alot of us don't know how to read those links you guys pass to each other.
Hi Storm

When you look at QS neither area has an impressive surface low, although I am inclined to think that the wave closest to the Islands is better developed at this time. The low further East has a very elongated area of low pressure oriented SW to NE and would likely take several days to organise.

Quick weigh-in on the clueless questions

I am a lurker since early 05, a non-met with dial-up only, I'm out in the woods with no other option. I can't get many of the models or other info easily so a question of "what is happening with 94L?" that gets answered by one of the well-informed people on the blog is really appreciated because it would take me a long time to go back through the archive to find the discussion.

Also, all the info/prognostications based on those who can see and understand all the data is really helpful - keep up the good work everyone and I'll go back to lurking. It may seem redundant sometimes but know that your willingness to answer "clueless" questions is sometimes really helpful to the silent crowd.
1522..I agree
Morning all - nice to see everyone here this morning.

Baha - Fitzroy had a list of bloggers, but I think he was collecting ages.
TS Elida dvorak estimates as of 11:45 UTC

TAFB 3.0/45 knots
SAB 2.5/35 knots

So the NHC will probably go with 40 knots at the next advisory
1524. Snowspotter1923 8:50 AM EDT on July 12, 2008

I post alot of pics on my blog....the most feedback i get from people are thanks for putting a picture story together for me to understand.....then i get the more knowledgeable people that think i post too many pics on my blog.......trust me. This is why i post so many pics is from the feedback i get from those that may understand less than me.....lol
Quoting aubiesgirl:
1522..I agree

Thank you Aubie...I personally don't know how to read some of that stuff..It's like giving someome a calculus problem and they have had no formal background leading to figure out the problem..Sometimes it's just easier to ask and know when your not able to figure it out yourself. So it's a compliment to all that know how on here.
I'm a link loser...

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/enhtstm/
1525.

I typically don't mind answering questions about what storms or disturbances are doing so feel free to ask me those types of questions or questions about models or other technical things. The only question that bothers me is the "when is L going to form?"
1530 I second that I don't understand it all even though I was here in 2007..I can't wrap my brain around it...I would hate to think that I am annoying people by askin questions as I am not tryin to be a pain..that's why this year I'm not postin much as it seems people get annoyed
Good Morning, I am updating my blog. But the wave in the middle near 30-40W is the one i am looking at since it has the best spin. QuikSCAT last night and this morning even showed a broad area of low pressure with alot of west winds equatorward. Normally this is an indicator that the enviroment is riped for cyclogenesis.

Out for coffee
Tampa, Aubie, most people in here will answer the questions - I think what Ike is referring to are people who aren't even trying to understand - they just come to blog to catch the "news".

My own personal gripe this season is the obvious newbies who "know" whats going to happen, and then spend the whole evening arguing about it. Something about being a mom, I want to tell the to knock it off!
Quoting aubiesgirl:
1530 I second that I don't understand it all even though I was here in 2007..I can't wrap my brain around it...I would hate to think that I am annoying people by askin questions as I am not tryin to be a pain..that's why this year I'm not postin much as it seems people get annoyed
I second that! I'm not embarrassed to ask if I do not understand but, it seems to annoy some on here. I only appear in here during the hurricane season and find this site to be helpful in alot of ways.
1533.

To me people posting questions isn't annoying as in fact I do it myself sometimes. Feel free to post any questions you have or mail them to somebody and I'm sure you will get an answer at some point. I try to answer as many questions as I can for people whenever I'm on to the best of my ability.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR BERMUDA LATER
THIS MORNING.

This made me think about the difference between a watch and a warning. It's not so much the measure of confidence the NHC has in the storm hitting you; it's more how close the storm is to hitting you. A watch is issued 36 hours before potential landfall, while a warning is issued 24 hours before an expected landfall.
1537..me too I guess I only show up during the season..I must say this is the first year that Ihave never felt welcome..and that was prior to this morning posts. this post this mornign have nothing to do with that
1537. TampaMishy 9:03 AM EDT on July 12, 2008

Mishy i hope i don't ignor ya.....cause you could take it out on me since you know where i live......lol
TampaSpin is the most helpful blogger on here for atleast me. Thanks TampaSpin you're great!
1540.

Well its not just 24 hours to a landfall it can be 24 hours until tropical storm conditions impact you.
Oh, great blog bashing guys.

Funny, all blogs that I have ever seen end up having 'eites' and the rest, including newbies.

I really was not going to say anything, out of respect for weather underground, but after yet another page of 'bashing' , it is just too much.

Anyway, onto something else.
lol no TampaSpin you're very helpful to me.
I've been thinking...I might have to start making my own blog entries...I've just been so lazy to do it lol...I might think about it after I get back from vacation on Friday.
Looks like shear could be a problem for those to develop very fast.
Bertha's inner eyewall remnants seem to be finally starting to dissipate...I've never seen eyewall remnants stick around for that long before...
Dr.Masters,

I have read about the weather drones from Australia that are based in Barbados this season.

Would you have any work with these and if so, how do these assist your modelling etc?

Thanks,

Bajelayman
Baha - did you find the list of locations?
I have a question. Some have been saying that there is too much dry air for anything to form right now, whereas others are saying there is much less dry air than when Bertha formed. Which is the truth? I thought that Bertha crossing the Atlantic sort of "ate up" some of that dry air.
Thank you for your help.
1553.

Some dry air is still in place over the CATL region....mainly above 15N...however Bertha did get rid of much of the dry air or weaken whatever dry air was left.
1543. TampaMishy 9:05 AM EDT on July 12, 2008

Mishy thank you, just ask!
Quoting aubiesgirl:
1537..me too I guess I only show up during the season..I must say this is the first year that Ihave never felt welcome..and that was prior to this morning posts. this post this mornign have nothing to do with that


I'm sorry you feel that way! Just tell me what I or anyone else can do to help change that.
1553. heretolearninPR 9:12 AM EDT on July 12, 2008

Actually Bertha was dealing with alot of dry air to her North. But, storms when they get going can feed off their own makings and create a more moisture rich environment.....and yes Bertha has left more moisture behind.....
Thank you 236 and StormW
Its going to rain.....Ya
thank you too Tampa. Sometimes it is difficult to discern between the people who know what they are talking about and the others that just want to stir up controversy. The maps and the discussions help.
Morning All.

Looks like the wave @ 32W is going to be the player for Christobal.

72HR SURFACE FORECAST

I have to say that Bertha has been one of the strangest hurricanes I have ever seen.
aubiesgirl you have mail
Quoting aubiesgirl:
1530 I second that I don't understand it all even though I was here in 2007..I can't wrap my brain around it...I would hate to think that I am annoying people by askin questions as I am not tryin to be a pain..that's why this year I'm not postin much as it seems people get annoyed


I think if Wunderbloggers were seriously annoyed, we wouldn't answer questions at all LOL

I think I told somebody last year (forget who, now) that there are only two reasons you don't get your questions answered in here:

1. nobody knows the answer
2. nobody saw the question.

Please don't feel restricted. Anybody who is genuinely annoyed about answering questions isn't posting regularly in this blog anyhow. No matter how grumpy people may sound (especially before morning coffee), they're still answering the questions . . . lol

And one of these days, if you ask enough questions and stock away the answers, you'll find yourself answering more than you used to, passing what you have gained to those who are just beginning. It's a learning process for the people who stick with the blog.

Something else I'm realizing because I tend to be an evening/weekends blogger (work restrictions) is that quite a number of bloggers who are at work only pop in for a few minutes at a time during the day. I guess these people are looking for a quick synopsis of what's happening in the small window of opportunity they have between doing whatever it is that they do.
1563. TheCaneWhisperer

That is the one the models are on to.
1563.

That shows a closed sfc low...hmm looks like that will be the wave that could be the pre-cursor to Cristobal.
morning all, popped in for a few before I have to take the peewee to a b'day party =)
still appear that chritobal may form next week? or at least the beginnings of him?
also appears bertha is beginning to slooooow down more!
1564. stormkat 9:23 AM EDT on July 12, 2008

StormW do not even acknowledge this..its not worth it....
Morning tigger
Surface charts do change though, much like the models tend to follow the storms when the storms refuse to do what the models predict !
Quoting zoomiami:
Baha - did you find the list of locations?


Not yet. I am trying to use the search feature, but I always have a hard time with that for some reason . . .
1574. StormW 9:27 AM EDT on July 12, 2008

StormW Your pretty good compared to stormKat......lol
Storm - I like your analysis, and think they tend to be very accurate. You explain a lot of the features that some of you guys know just by looking at, but some of the rest of don't quite understand how they all come together.
1570

Have to say the GFS has been doing great this year sniffing out in the long term. Still having trouble with the HP Ridge as usual.
StormW your forecasts seem right on and you are one of the people I have learned the most from at WU. Thank you. Now I am off to the beach before it gets too hot. Have a good day all.
1574.

Your forecasting is great! Much better than stormkat's...you certainly haven't been as wrong as he/she/and his/her second personality has
yeah Storm I did and boy was it needed !

Don't let Stormkat reel you in.
morning Zoo!

StormW...you have taught me more about these storms than anyone else as well as taking the time (last year if you remember) to emailing me links and explanations so that I can understand...i would email you back with the way I understood it to see if I was correct, you would either tell me yes or no, if it was no, you explained why...now, I got a grip on it...enough to keep me safe anyway
Ok well I will BBL...I'm gonna be in and out for much of the day since I have packing to do.
The other thing about your analysis is that you generally present the second best possibility regarding a system.

Many people wonder what the possibilities are, and this gives them an idea of what they may need to look at.

Its a great learning tool as to what types of scenarios can be played out with the pattern of that particular storm.
Hey Storm - i think your analysis' are great...Stormkat, stormtop, stormitswritteninstone is well...on my ignore list so I don't even have to deal with him. (Gotta love that feature.)

Storm W,

Your Forcast are Intresting ..

On The other Hand .... Stormkat and his drawings are not
Quoting kmanislander:
Surface charts do change though, much like the models tend to follow the storms when the storms refuse to do what the models predict !


Aren't surface charts designed to reflect the changes in the atmosphere at regular intervals? (Having a "duh" moment. . .)
There is a reason everyone wants to know when StormW is going to show up......
hmm... good morming all...question...is there a weak circulation trying to start at 8N 35W... or have i just not fully awaken yet...lol
For anyone new i updated my blog this very early morning....i do try to make it very reader friendly...TampaSpins Blog
Quoting BahaHurican:
Quoting kmanislander:
Surface charts do change though, much like the models tend to follow the storms when the storms refuse to do what the models predict !


Aren't surface charts designed to reflect the changes in the atmosphere at regular intervals? (Having a "duh" moment. . .)


As I understand it surface charts simply reflect the current thinking based upon forecasted events. How many times have you seen a surface chart that showed a closed low forecasted to develop 72 hrs out but when the 24 hr chart for that same area is released no low is shown on it because the scenario forecasted did not come to pass ?
I hope u guys don't quote stormkat, please! I haven't read one of his messages, unless quoted by others, since the big message board revision couple years ago.

IMO, real forecasters don't have to brag or browbeat others; they just do what they do best . . . analyse weather conditions.
stormw never said it WOULD hit the east coast if I remember correctly, he said if it did not get above 25n before it passed PR area, the trough would not pick it up because it would not hold....and the trough did NOT hold that the models predicted would...that is why she is now floundering out there....he said she COULD become a threat and for the east coast to watch her...StormW has said on many occasions in here (last year as well) storms that pass S of PR tend to go to the gulf, direct hits or just N of PR tend to hit the east coast, Further N of PR tend to be Bermuda storms or Fishes...
Forward speed and the size of that darned eye, you would probably have time to run some errands and go to the beach before the second half came through.
Storm W,

So Do we Have Are Invest Yet?

If No When would Expected the formation of a system
Action: Quote | Ignore User

He's just trying to stir things up - hit the ignore user button and POOF
1605. kmanislander 9:38 AM EDT on July 12, 2008
Ah, the FORECAST maps, not the analysis maps . . . OK, now that makes sense. . .
1609. StormW 9:39 AM EDT on July 12, 2008
1604.

Yeah, great job this morning!


Thanks StormW...no professional like you sir!
1615. Patrap
Bermuda animated Radar Link

Live WEBcam Link
giving StormW a military Salute....TY
1611.

Hmmm are u a freakin *****...

I am Flagin all ur comments
My apologies Baha, I should have made that clear. The Java has not kicked in yet !
1510. StormW

You're right (of course) Storm - that one at 37W has got a funny sniff to it....

We've had 2 great summers in a row in SW Florida with no major landfalling systems, and I can't help but think our number could be up this year. Charlie, Frances, Wilma...they still scare me, and if I never went through another one it would suit me just fine.

P.S. Thank you and all of the excellent contributors to this blog. There's life saving information and understanding in here, and I'm grateful to have access to it.
TY sammy....everyone can get into heated discussions in here but he is just rediculous...
Stormkat you have major deep seeded issues. Infact you border on being an internet bully.
Quoting TheCaneWhisperer:
Forward speed and the size of that darned eye, you would probably have time to run some errands and go to the beach before the second half came through.


For some reason this reminds me of the 1926 and 1928 hurricanes in Miami, when people went out in the eye because it was so big and then got caught outside. There is also an old family story here that one of my greatuncles was killed because he was trying to fix something that got loose during the first part of the storm and got trapped outside by the back side of the eyewall.

Which brings me to a question: Any ideas on the storm with the largest known landfalling eye?
aubies...if you are still here, u got mail!
Quoting kmanislander:
My apologies Baha, I should have made that clear. The Java has not kicked in yet !


NP. I shouldn't even have been asking. I'm still setting up my first cup. Shoulda set the auto feature last night . . . lol
Storm W and All,

If you Ask me i think those 2 waves could become TD 3 Amd TD 4 In the next week or so ...

All they Have to do is get Organized..

Shear is Down
Dry air is down

The Precintage of surveing is very high
Stormkat, he's an expert, and knows how to analyze satellite images, computer models, and everything. You are a troll who knows nothing about the weather.
StomrKat Comments Disappered
I bypassed the coffee this morning and went straight for the Mt. Dew...KICK IN PLEASE! Need to either utilize the ignore button or leave...
1624. Should i Ignore Storm Kat?
StormW your forcast are great. the thing here is wrong or right you are back to defend or redo your forcast, and that other butthead never show up only when he gets them close. keep up the good work StormW
Quoting sammywammybamy:
1624. Should i Ignore Storm Kat?


Yes.

Whenever there's a troll here, I pull out that image from my archives.
Alrighty kids - everyone have a great day - going sailing with the oldest one today and hopefully no storms. Anniversary is today too and I will probably be in the doghouse as hubby's present won't be here till Monday...uh oh. Have a great day and evening. Play nice - no throwing sand at each other in the sandbox. :)

Bertha's Dieing Fast

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 12 JUL 2008 Time : 124500 UTC
Lat : 29:54:11 N Lon : 62:31:24 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.1 / 983.7mb/ 67.4kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
3.4 3.3 2.5

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : -1.7mb

Center Temp : +9.4C Cloud Region Temp : -38.0C

Scene Type : CURVED BAND with 0.33 ARC in MD GRAY
Maximum CURVED BAND with 0.56 ARC in MD GRAY
at Lat: 29:17:59 N Lon: 62:07:11 W

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.5T/hour
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : FLAG
when stormw forecasts he gives more than one senerio....the 1st is the most likely, after that, it is what will happen if the models are not right in what they predict....he is not to proud to say IDK
1641. pottery
StormW. Thanks for the response to my earlier question.
Nuff respect to you.
Put the Kat out .
1642. Patrap

Use the site controls and ignore.

1643. Patrap
Bertha

InfraRed Loop Link

Water Vapor Loop Link
Well, my last post for a while. The area near 35W is exhibiting good rotation at the mid levels but quikscat shows the surface low to be weak. The wave further West is not as strong in the mid levels but has the building convection.

Let's see how they look in 6 hrs.

Will BBL. Have a great day folks
Morning Pat - how is it in your neck of the woods?
stormkat now i see u are picking at the vetrans now huh you have been tagged and bagged you have no ones respect on here
1649. pottery
Post 1644.
Way to GO >
1650. Patrap
Morning StormW...looks like bertha Has gone
"all Stop"..
stormW, you got mail my friend

Im outta here, need to get stuff done and I didn't know that we were all part of the 3 billy goats gruff with trolls and all...but didn't the troll lose in that story? =)
Guys Lol Were Lynching Stormkat ...
pottery i like nothing more but to knock that kat out

that boy needs an ass whooping
a week or so ago, the current wisdom at that time suggested that when the EPac is active, the Atl is not. With a TS and two invests in the EPac, does anyone think the Atl will be slow for a week or so? just asking...
1656. Patrap
UNYSIS 10-Day GFSx Link
Special Weather Statement
Statement as of 9:14 AM EDT on May 20, 2008

... Strong winds across area bridges this afternoon and evening...

The large pressure difference between low pressure moving toward
the Delmarva region today and high pressure to the south will
result in strong southwesterly winds across the area this afternoon
and evening.

Southwesterly winds will reach as high as 20 or 30 mph through
8 or 9 PM this evening... but with higher gusts especially along
the coast and across the taller bridges such as those in
Charleston... Beaufort and Berkeley counties.
1659. pottery
Morning presslord. All is well in the doghouse ?
btw...my previous post was not gotten from a computer...I have special forecasting "tools"....
1662. Patrap
Global Ensemble Ocean Wave Prediction Charts (WW3 Ensemble)

Gulf of Mexico 4 FT Wave Probability Link
1663. ch2os
1574 Storm W If I didn't think highly of your interpretations and forecasts I wouldn't have your site on my favorites. :) Even though I rarely post, I have been around since before Frances and am familiar with names and their variations of those who enjoy stirring the blogs in a negative way. We must all use restraint so as to not get pulled into these silly war of words and resulting in being banned. We would be lost without the expertise of many.
Anyone have a picture of the "weak circulation" at 8N 35W???
stormw kat has been banned
all posts been removed as well
I seem to be back in the good graces of She Who Must Be Obeyed.....thanks....
1667. pottery
LOL. All's well.........
1668. Patrap
When ya use the site tools and report a nutbag,they dissappear faster than Bantering back and forth and quoteing them.
Respond not,and use the controls and they go POOF much faster.
1671. Patrap
ONLY admin can remove a Blogger,no one else.

But for them to be informed,we must report the offender,thus the controls at everyones disposal.
Elida looks Menacing
1674.
Thanks
Good morning all! Man you all wake up early around here!

Gonna be a hot one here @ my house today... upper 90s. Welcome to summmer in Texas....
pat iam sure admin is among us pretending to be a regular blogger with no one being the wiser
Quoting presslord:
I seem to be back in the good graces of She Who Must Be Obeyed.....thanks....


So what did you do this time Rumpolt?
I suggested she do something differently...shoulda known better...
1682. DDR
Good morning all
So it looks like a storm may form in the CAtl and head towards the leewards,Is it possible that if it were to develop that it could take a more southerly track?
Recon is up..

Product: Air Force Tropical RECCO Message (URNT11 KNHC)
Transmitted: 12th day of the month at 13:37Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 309)
Storm Number: 02
Storm Name: Bertha (in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 2 (See all URNT11 messages from this mission.)
Observation Number: 01

Mandatory Data...

Observation Time: Saturday, 13:32Z
Radar Capability: Yes
Aircraft Altitude: Below 10,000 meters
Coordinates: 30.4N 81.0W (View map)
Location: 40 miles (64 km) to the E (82°) from Jacksonville, FL, USA.
Turbulence: None
Conditions Along Flight Route: In the clear
Pressure Altitude: 7,320 meters
Flight Level Wind: 5 knots (~ 5.8 mph) (Bearing was unavailable.)
- The above is a spot wind.
- Winds were obtained using doppler radar or inertial systems.
Flight Level Temperature: -18°C
Flight Level Dew Point: -22°C
Weather (within 30 nautical miles): Broken clouds (5/8 to 7/8 cloud coverage)
400 mb Surface Altitude: 7,600 geopotential meters
StormW. Is it the rotation in the vcnty of 0800N/03500W that has your attention?
Quoting presslord:
I suggested she do something differently...shoulda known better...


LOL never seem to learn do we?
1673. I agree!
1686. ShenValleyFlyFish 2:38 PM GMT on July 12, 2008 Hide this comment.

Quoting presslord:
I suggested she do something differently...shoulda known better...



LOL never seem to learn do we?
Action: Quote | Ignore User


Morning Shen/StormW/KOG
Another nice day here..so that must mean its time for me to get ready for work.. hope you guys have a great day.

1692. vortfix
Latest OBS from RECON:


Product: Air Force High Density (HDOB) Message (URNT15 KNHC)
Transmitted: 12th day of the month at 14:41Z
Date: July 12, 2008
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 309)
Storm Number: 02
Storm Name: Bertha (in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 2
Observation Number: 18

Time (Z) / Coordinates / Acft. Static Air Press. / Acft. Geo. Hgt. / Extrap. Sfc. Press. / Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s) / Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind / SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind / SFMR Rain Rate
14:31:00 30.45N 75.27W 392.7 mb 7,715 m - From 85° (E) at 14 kts (16.1 mph) 14 kts (~ 16.1 mph) 22 kts 0 mm/hr
14:31:30 30.45N 75.22W 392.5 mb 7,719 m - From 83° (E) at 13 kts (14.9 mph) 14 kts (~ 16.1 mph) 25 kts 0 mm/hr
14:32:00 30.45N 75.18W 392.5 mb 7,722 m - From 83° (E) at 12 kts (13.8 mph) 12 kts (~ 13.8 mph) 22 kts 0 mm/hr
14:32:30 30.45N 75.13W 392.7 mb 7,718 m - From 81° (E) at 11 kts (12.6 mph) 12 kts (~ 13.8 mph) 24 kts 0 mm/hr
14:33:00 30.45N 75.08W 392.6 mb 7,719 m - From 81° (E) at 12 kts (13.8 mph) 13 kts (~ 14.9 mph) 23 kts 0 mm/hr
14:33:30 30.45N 75.03W 392.3 mb 7,725 m - From 80° (E) at 12 kts (13.8 mph) 13 kts (~ 14.9 mph) 25 kts 0 mm/hr
14:34:00 30.45N 74.98W 392.6 mb 7,720 m - From 78° (ENE/E) at 12 kts (13.8 mph) 12 kts (~ 13.8 mph) 24 kts 0 mm/hr
14:34:30 30.45N 74.95W 392.6 mb 7,720 m - From 79° (E) at 11 kts (12.6 mph) 11 kts (~ 12.6 mph) 23 kts 0 mm/hr
14:35:00 30.45N 74.90W 392.4 mb 7,723 m - From 78° (ENE/E) at 10 kts (11.5 mph) 11 kts (~ 12.6 mph) 23 kts 0 mm/hr
14:35:30 30.45N 74.85W 392.7 mb 7,719 m - From 85° (E) at 10 kts (11.5 mph) 10 kts (~ 11.5 mph) 25 kts 0 mm/hr
14:36:00 30.45N 74.80W 392.6 mb 7,719 m - From 88° (E) at 10 kts (11.5 mph) 10 kts (~ 11.5 mph) 23 kts 0 mm/hr
14:36:30 30.47N 74.75W 392.7 mb 7,722 m - From 91° (E) at 10 kts (11.5 mph) 10 kts (~ 11.5 mph) 26 kts 0 mm/hr
14:37:00 30.47N 74.72W 392.4 mb 7,730 m - From 96° (E) at 11 kts (12.6 mph) 11 kts (~ 12.6 mph) 24 kts 0 mm/hr
14:37:30 30.47N 74.67W 392.6 mb 7,719 m - From 98° (E) at 11 kts (12.6 mph) 11 kts (~ 12.6 mph) 24 kts 0 mm/hr
14:38:00 30.47N 74.62W 392.3 mb 7,720 m - From 98° (E) at 11 kts (12.6 mph) 11 kts (~ 12.6 mph) 23 kts 0 mm/hr
14:38:30 30.47N 74.57W 392.4 mb 7,715 m - From 99° (E) at 9 kts (10.3 mph) 9 kts (~ 10.3 mph) 25 kts 0 mm/hr
14:39:00 30.47N 74.52W 393.0 mb 7,708 m - From 101° (E/ESE) at 9 kts (10.3 mph) 10 kts (~ 11.5 mph) 22 kts 0 mm/hr
14:39:30 30.47N 74.47W 392.6 mb 7,714 m - From 103° (ESE) at 10 kts (11.5 mph) 10 kts (~ 11.5 mph) 24 kts 0 mm/hr
14:40:00 30.47N 74.43W 392.6 mb 7,715 m - From 105° (ESE) at 10 kts (11.5 mph) 10 kts (~ 11.5 mph) 25 kts 0 mm/hr
14:40:30 30.47N 74.38W 392.7 mb 7,713 m - From 106° (ESE) at 11 kts (12.6 mph) 11 kts (~ 12.6 mph) 23 kts 0 mm/hr
At 14:31:00Z (first observation), the observation was 303 miles (488 km) to the SSE (149°) from Wilmington, NC, USA.
At 14:40:30Z (last observation), the observation was 332 miles (534 km) to the SE (142°) from Wilmington, NC, USA.

whats new with mode runs this AM???
at one point there was some hinting of something off the NC/SC coast...Anything to it? Is that what's gonna produce the high winds we have forecast later today?
Quoting StormW:
1691. JFV 10:45 AM EDT on July 12, 2008
The one that's currently located in the Central Atlantic StormW? Sir, I haven't looked at any of the model runs this morning; therefore, let me ask you are they still showing tropical formation within that area for early next week or perhaps not anymore?


Yes...the one in the CATL.

I haven't looked at any of the model runs either...anyone?


The GFS briefly develops a surface low, but keeps it as a wave into the Carribean. The CMC blows it up near the Yucatan.
Good mornng Orca, StormW and all.

Sorry about just barging in. I'll use the standard excuse. My caffene titer needs to be adjusted upward.
From the NHC discussion:

AFTER A WEEK OR SO...I AM RUNNING OUT OF THINGS TO SAY ABOUT BERTHA.
Bye everyone !!!

I'm going on vacation for 3 weeks

Hopefully I won't miss out on anything exciting in the Tropics
1705. K8eCane
good morning everyone
WTNT42 KNHC 121433
TCDAT2
HURRICANE BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER 38
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008
1100 AM EDT SAT JUL 12 2008

AFTER A WEEK OR SO...I AM RUNNING OUT OF THINGS TO SAY ABOUT BERTHA.


LOL
1707. K8eCane
how is everyone today?
1708. nash28
LOL!!! I knew Avila would have something sharp and witty to say about Bertha!
1709. K8eCane
hope everyone is well today
1711. nash28
1710-

Sure feels like it huh? Good grief! Move already!
1712. JRL28
If the NHC is running out of things to say about Bertha they need to visit this blog. There's no shortage of comments around here.
1713. nash28
1710-

I also looked at the 06z GFS. Looks like we'll be getting to our "C" storm in short order.
1714. K8eCane
i'm great
thanks storm
Wave near 50W seems to be building some nice convection with it an also seems to have a good ML rotation with it.Overall something might pop soon whether its this wave or the one around 10N close to the cape-verde islands.

Here's an animated view of the wave near 50W.

1716. nash28
Just checked out the ECMWF. Nothing from that model...
1717. nash28
1715-

Could have another Invest if either of these waves persists.
somebody just let me know when it's time to start making "Dolly is a bust" jokes.....
1720. nash28
Quoting StormW:
1711. nash28 11:03 AM EDT on July 12, 2008
1710-

Sure feels like it huh? Good grief! Move already!


Yeah...nothin worse then having one just sit and spin! I know...it's the remnants of Karen!

LOL!


Thankfully StormW, she isn't centered about 80 miles offshore from Tampa or Cedar Key doing this...
Bertha should slowly drift off to the east in time.

TS warnings just went up for the island.
Good morning. Just stopped by to see what was hapening. I sure someone has already mentioned it, but just noticed some circulation at 7N 35W. Without going back over the last 200 entries can someone give me their thoughts on it.
1723. nash28
Quoting hurricane23:
Bertha should slowly drift off to the east in time.

TS warnings just went up for the island.


Yeah, by August 22nd, Bertha should get caught up in the Westerlies and beat feet out of here:-)

LOL!
1727. Drakoen
Theres a new surface low within the ITCZ:
Yup...0800N/03500W is churning. Beginning of rotation and IR loop is indicating some growing tops. BTW...present position of Teal71 is about 1+45 hours away from Bertha. Currently at FL240 and flight plan is to spend 2 hours with Bertha at 10000 feet and below. gotta love those guys to spend hours and hours in a very luxurious C130. LOL
1729. fire635
Morning all.. Im sure Im behind the mark, but the newest models sure are showing that we will be talking about alot more than Bertha in the next couple of days.
Bermuda is very lucky right now. If bertha was centered about 100 miles to the west they would be in for one long ride
1731. nash28
Yep. This could be the year of the long trackers.
1732. fire635
Anyone else gussing that we'll have a new Invest by this evening?
So is that new surface low Drak mentioned the area StormW was talking about on then RGB loop? I thought I saw some turning near 35W.....
1734. pottery
I've been gussing all morning........
StormW... What do you make of this? Possible system next weekend?

1736. Drakoen
does anyone have an explaination for the west-east orientation of the storm? i dont recal ever seeing a storm like this
Quoting Drakoen:

Great find Drak!
so we sould have 94L vary soon then may be by tonight or on sunday
1740. Melagoo
I wonder what Dr Masters will say with respect to all the wave action coming off Africa?

Looks to me like at least one Hurricane is in there
if evere thing plans out next week we could see 3 or more new name storms next week
1742. Patrap
Atlantic Ocean View (Updated ~3 hours)Link

GOES-12 Channel 4 (IR) GOES-12 Channel 3 (WV) GOES-12 Low Cloud Product
1743. fire635
I agree melagoo... One model puts a decent system just north of Puerto Rico in the next several days while another shows the same system entering the carribean. Both show a very defined system though.
1744. Melagoo
Wave Parade!

This has to be a invest ... Right Taz?
1745. Melagoo
Hi Patrap :c)

I love the LSU site good info there
Ok. Everyone in Puerto Rico, virgin Islands, martinique, barbados, DR, cuba... . Make this one go away because it's worrying me :)
am not sure heh you have to ask the nhc
1749. Drakoen
The TPC is expecting an area of low pressure to form within the next 24hrs, catch up with the wave axis in 48hrs, and become a closed low moving to the WNW in 72 hours.
1750. Patrap
Morning Melagoo..the site has a Lot to offer the Tropical Watcher,certainly

ESL from LSU Link
94L soon
Product: Air Force Tropical RECCO Message (URNT11 KNHC)
Transmitted: 12th day of the month at 15:12Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 309)
Storm Number: 02
Storm Name: Bertha (in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 2 (See all URNT11 messages from this mission.)
Observation Number: 05

Mandatory Data...

Observation Time: Saturday, 15:03Z
Radar Capability: Yes
Aircraft Altitude: Below 10,000 meters
Coordinates: 30.4N 72.2W (View map)
Location: 387 miles (623 km) to the SSE (150°) from Cape Hatteras, NC, USA.
Turbulence: None
Conditions Along Flight Route: In the clear
Pressure Altitude: 7,310 meters
Flight Level Wind: From 140° at 12 knots (From the SE at ~ 13.8 mph)
- The above is a spot wind.
- Winds were obtained using doppler radar or inertial systems.
Flight Level Temperature: -20°C
Flight Level Dew Point: -44°C
Weather (within 30 nautical miles): Scattered clouds (trace to 4/8 cloud coverage)
400 mb Surface Altitude: 7,580 geopotential meters

Remarks: SWS 021KTS
Most recent cooridinates put recon just left of the floater. Getting closer.
1754. Patrap
Hard to worry about something that hasent even formed into a invest.


Models are tools,the real time is reality.


Is that low the system Kman was talking about yesterday?
1757. Drakoen
Quoting JFV:
Would that movement continue beyond that point for the forseable future Drak? Therefore, eventually threatning the North Antillies as advertised by many of the models this morning my friend?


The GFS has been consistent in targeting the Leeward islands. Thereafter anywhere is possible.
Morning everyone!

AFTER A WEEK OR SO...I AM RUNNING OUT OF THINGS TO SAY ABOUT BERTHA.

LOL. Looks like Avila's up to his usual sense of humor.
I imagine the models will have just as many problems with forecasting this new Storm as they did with Bertha. Reason being, it basically has the same elements to deal with- it's just beginning a little further south and west. I wouldn't be surprised if it follows the same 'curve' as Bertha did but shifted down and left.
I’m convinced we will have to wait a while for Cristobel
I've noticed that the GFS attempts to develop the wave ahead of it's forecasted EATL system (currently located west of 40W along the ITCZ) as it nears the Leeward Islands but has never really done anything too significant with it. It has been showing an open area of low pressure developing along the wave axis as it moves further west into the Caribbean, and this is the system the CMC and previously the ECMWF want to develop near Jamaica next week.

It's something worth watching, of course, what isn't these days.

1764. Drakoen
Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
I imagine the models will have just as many problems with forecasting this new Storm as they did with Bertha. Reason being, it basically has the same elements to deal with- it's just beginning a little further south and west. I wouldn't be surprised if it follows the same 'curve' as Bertha did but shifted down and left.


Don't mention any left/west shift lol.
We are all weather hobbyists at best but some do a have a degree in meteorology.
1766. JRRP
this wave near 46w 11n looks better than when 91L was declared
Low pressure is forecast to develop with the easternmost cluster of convection (the general area in which the GFS develops a cyclone) within 24 hours. QS missed that blob but caught the western fringe of the wave to it's west, where winds were blowing from the north.

If that wave on Africa becomes Cristobal and doesn't turn north it could hit leewards and PR as cat 2 I'm making some wild guesses but it could happen
1769. Michfan
Good morning everyone. Looks like we may have another wild ride to watch after Bertha. Here is to hoping this one doesn't meander as long and makes up its mind!
When where there be a new blog I want some more info
1771. Michfan
Quoting JRRP:
this wave near 46w 11n looks better than when 91L was declared
Link


You can't link the satellites like that. You need to put in the entire link.

*cough*Cristobal*cough
new blog guys
Teal71 is in Bertha...oh, that didn't sound very good....Teal71 is examining Bertha...crud, let me rephrase..

The hurricane hunter aircraft is presently flying within the area of Hurricane Bertha. They flight planned abount another hour in the area and then back to Biloxi. Carcah advised me today they also plan another flight tomorrow.