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Bertha becomes the season's first hurricane

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 12:39 PM GMT on July 07, 2008

The 2008 hurricane season's first hurricane is here--Hurricane Bertha. Bertha is the earliest forming July hurricane since Hurricane Cindy (July 6, 2005) and Hurricane Dennis (July 7, 2005). Bertha took advantage of warmer Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) of 27°C and modest wind shear of 10-15 knots to put on a burst of intensification to hurricane strength overnight. The storm has continued to intensify since the 5 am EDT NHC advisory, with some satellite estimates giving Bertha 90 mph winds--just below the threshold of Category 2 status. Visible satellite loops show a well-formed eye with excellent upper-level outflow to the north. The Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to make their first visit to Bertha on Tuesday afternoon to get a better idea of the storm's true strength.


Figure 1. Bertha at 7:45am EDT Monday July 7, 2008.

The intensity forecast
SSTs will continue to warm to 28°C Tuesday morning underneath Bertha, but wind shear is expected to increase some, to 15-20 knots. Bertha should intensify into a Category 2 hurricane today. Higher wind shear should halt intensification on Tuesday. Wind shear is expected to stay in the 15-25 knot range for the remainder of the week, and it is unlikely that Bertha can intensify beyond Category 3 status. The GFDL predicts Bertha will peak at Category 2 status, and the HWRF takes it to Category 3 strength (941 mb) five days from now.

The track forecast
Bertha will start to slow down over the next few days as it "feels" the approach of a trough of low pressure scheduled to move off the U.S. East Coast on Thursday. This trough will force Bertha on a more northwesterly track towards Bermuda, and most of the computer models foresee that Bertha will pass close to Bermuda 5-7 days from now. The exception is the GFS model, which predicts that Thursday's trough of low pressure will not be strong enough to recurve Bertha so far to the north. The GFS keeps Bertha farther south, bringing the storm on a track to pass close to the Carolinas early next week. So far, the GFS has been the most reliable model (Figure 2) tracking Bertha. However, the current run of the GFS depicts a considerably weaker storm than Bertha has become, and its track for Bertha will likely be too far south. A stronger Bertha will "feel" the upper-level westerly winds of the approaching trough more strongly than the GFS is indicating. In short, the best forecast is to assume Bertha will recurve to the north and pass close to Bermuda by the end of the week. Whether or not this trough will be strong enough to fully recurve Bertha northeastward into the hurricane graveyard of the North Atlantic is uncertain at this time.


Figure 2. Animated .gif showing the official NHC forecast every 12 hours (gray line) along with the actual track Bertha took (black line) and the forecasts from several of the computer models. The GFS model has had the best overall performance of the models. The NOGAPS and HWRF model tracks are not shown here, but did not do as well as the GFS.

Elsewhere in the tropics
There are no threat areas to discuss in the tropical Atlantic, and none of the models are forecasting tropical storm formation in the next seven days.

I'll post an update Tuesday morning.
Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

2001. ghal416
000
WTNT32 KNHC 080235
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE BERTHA ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008
1100 PM AST MON JUL 07 2008

...POWERFUL HURRICANE BERTHA OVER OPEN WATERS...

AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE BERTHA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 20.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 52.8 WEST OR ABOUT 695 MILES...
1115 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS AND ABOUT
1085 MILES...1745 KM...SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.

BERTHA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR. A
GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 120 MPH...195 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. BERTHA IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE SCALE. FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY DURING THE
12 TO 24 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL WEAKENING.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115
MILES...185 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 952 MB...28.11 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 1100 PM AST POSITION...20.8 N...52.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...952 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA


looks like bertha actually strengthened a little :/

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Hurricane BERTHA Public Advisory
Home Public Adv Fcst/Adv Discussion Wind Probs Maps/Charts Archive

000
WTNT32 KNHC 080235
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE BERTHA ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008
1100 PM AST MON JUL 07 2008

...POWERFUL HURRICANE BERTHA OVER OPEN WATERS...

AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE BERTHA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 20.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 52.8 WEST OR ABOUT 695 MILES...
1115 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS AND ABOUT
1085 MILES...1745 KM...SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.

BERTHA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR. A
GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 120 MPH...195 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. BERTHA IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE SCALE. FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY DURING THE
12 TO 24 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL WEAKENING.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115
MILES...185 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 952 MB...28.11 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 1100 PM AST POSITION...20.8 N...52.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...952 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA


The NHC isn't ruling out the BAM models.

looks like a west movement coming.
1987. LOL

That's because u guys don't have photos in cool shades as avatars . . . and living in the Caymans is pretty cool, too. If I couldn't live at home, I guess Caymans would be close enough to it in a pinch . . . LOL
Why is Bertha Shrinking the storm already pretty small just halved in size! Does this have anything to do with eye-wall replacement and annular storms?
They said the intensity could have been higher earlier...will have to see if they adjust anything post-analysis as they did with Dean and Felix.

000
WTNT42 KNHC 080236
TCDAT2
HURRICANE BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008
1100 PM EDT MON JUL 07 2008

DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS BETWEEN 1900 AND 2300 UTC...BOTH NHC AND
CIMSS OBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS WERE OSCILLATING AROUND 6.0 ON THE DVORAK
SCALE. NORMALLY THESE NUMBERS CORRESPOND TO AN INTENSITY OF 115
KNOTS. DURING THAT TIME THE EYE BECAME VERY DISTINCT AND WAS
SURROUNDED BY VERY COLD TOPS. BERTHA COULD HAVE REACHED A PEAK
INTENSITY A LITTLE BIT HIGHER THAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED DURING THAT
PERIOD. SINCE THEN...OBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS HAVE COME DOWN A LITTLE
BIT AND NEW ESTIMATES SUPPORT AN INTENSITY OF 105 KNOTS. MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS ALSO BEEN ADJUSTED. THE INTENSITY IS EXPECTED
TO BE CONTROLLED BY EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES DURING THE NEXT 12
TO 24 HOURS WHEN BERTHA COULD FLUCTUATE IN INTENSITY. THEREAFTER...
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR SLIGHT WEAKENING DUE TO INCREASING
SHEAR BUT NOT AS MUCH WEAKENING AS PREDICTED BY THE SHIPS MODEL.
NEVERTHELESS...THE INTENSITY FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN.

ON THE OTHER HAND...THE TRACK FORECAST HAS BECOME A LITTLE MORE
CERTAIN SINCE THE TRACK MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT AND THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE IS SMALLER. BERTHA IS MOVING TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 KNOTS WHILE APPROACHING A
WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO
REBUILD SOME AND THIS PATTERN WOULD FAVOR A CONTINUATION OF THE
WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK FOR A DAY OR TWO....FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TURN
TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH. BY DAYS 4 AND 5 THE STEERING CURRENTS
ARE FORECAST TO COLLAPSE AND BERTHA WILL PROBABLY MEANDER FOR A
LITTLE BIT.

BERTHA IS CERTAINLY NOT THE ONLY MAJOR HURRICANE THAT HAS FORMED IN
THE MONTH OF JULY. THE LAST OCCURRENCES WERE HURRICANES DENNIS AND
EMILY IN 2005.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 08/0300Z 20.8N 52.8W 105 KT
12HR VT 08/1200Z 21.5N 54.2W 100 KT
24HR VT 09/0000Z 22.5N 56.0W 100 KT
36HR VT 09/1200Z 23.5N 58.0W 95 KT
48HR VT 10/0000Z 25.0N 59.5W 85 KT
72HR VT 11/0000Z 27.5N 61.5W 80 KT
96HR VT 12/0000Z 30.0N 62.0W 75 KT
120HR VT 13/0000Z 32.0N 62.0W 75 KT

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
TS at or on the 21n 52.5w mark
More models now go West also.....starting to get an very ill feeling coming.
Powerful hurricane bertha over open waters,

At 1100 pm ast, 0300z, the eye of hurricane bertha was located near latitude 20.8 north, longitude 52.8 west or about 695 miles, 1115 km, east-northeast of the northern leeward islands and about 1085 miles, 1745 km, southeast of bermuda.

Bertha is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph, 19 km/hr. A gradual turn to the northwest with a decrease in forward speed is expected during the next 24 to 48 hours.

Maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph, 195 km/hr, with higher gusts. Bertha is a category three hurricane on the saffir-simpson hurricane scale. Fluctuations in intensity are likely during the 12 to 24 hours, followed by a gradual weakening.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 25 miles, 35 km, from the center, and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 115 miles, 185 km.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 952 mb, 28.11 inches.

Repeating the 1100 pm ast position, 20.8 n, 52.8 w. Movement toward, west-northwest near 12 mph. Maximum sustained winds, 120 mph. Minimum central pressure, 952 mb.

The next advisory will be issued by the national hurricane center at 500 am ast.
Kman:

LOL! Just wondered! For some reason I embrace tradition. Been to the Caymans many times my friend. They even survived my terrible driving on the left side (notice I did not say "wrong" side)!
Here is my prediction of where I think the storm will go. This may or may not happen but I think it's already making that turn towards the north and will not resume a more westward track. There is a definite weakness in the Bermuda high so the storm will follow that weakness. In fact I think it will continue to head towards the northwest and then the nnw in the next three days. After that I think it will curve towards the north east and maybe eventually the south east as the Bermuda high strengthens and builds back in within the next seven days. I also think that the storm will gradually weaken due to wind shear and slightly cooler sst.
If there is any chance of Bertha butt doing her boogie on the East Coast, Rehoboth, DE better start evacuation now because if their traffic control skills on the Fourth of July in the resort are any indication...it's going to take 3 weeks to get everyone out of town!!
Wow Tampaspin that looks scary
2011. lowerbamagirl

Let me know when you are coming to town again. Will buy you a drink !
The first Cape Verde Hurricanes

2008 - Bertha - July 3 (became a major on July 7)
2007 - Dean - August 13
2006 - Helene - September 12
2005 - Emily - July 10
2004 - Frances - August 24
2003 - Fabian - August 25
....
1996 - Bertha - July 5 (became major on July 9)

From this data it appears Bertha is the earliest cape verde type hurricane in hurricane history.

My exact words in early June 2008

I wudnt be surprise if 2008 had the earliest cape verde hurricane ever.

This was in response to an impressive wave we had in June, one of the many.
I wouldn't worry too much Tampa...most 00Z models were out to sea with the exception of the BAMS/BAMM/AEMN...looks to still be a fish.
Well I'm out for tonight.

You all have a great evening
Good night all! We will have to see how Bertha looks in the morning.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/nam/00/index_sl7_s_loop.shtml
NAM just finished.
dean on august 13 2007...thought it was in july weather456?
This might be one the first time that all 3 BAM models would be wrong.......i would never believe that to happen.
i,m out too seeya Kman and everyone else
if this season sets up like that 1996 season.. the east coast could take the brunt of most of the storms.
2021. mobilehurricane 10:49 PM AST on July 07, 2008
dean on august 13 2007...thought it was in july weather456?


Hurricane Dean was in August of last year. Only named storm in July 2007 was Chantal.
sorry weather456...you're right about dean
Bertha 135 mph peak. Well now we know that this hurricane was a Category FOUR before it weakened.

2028. scla08
Convection is starting to build around the eye again.

there is land in the way it seem like you are all forgeting about Bermuda if it makes land fall in Bermuda then it will no longer be a fish storm
At the current time the 11 PM Advisory still wants it to make a turn..

Quoting 2015. Weather456:
The first Cape Verde Hurricanes

2008 - Bertha - July 3 (became a major on July 7)
2005 - Emily - July 10
1996 - Bertha - July 5 (became major on July 9


When you add Dennis 2005 to this, that makes 4 major hurricanes in the 1st decade of July in the last 12 years, 3 in the last 3 years alone.

We could really be seeing a shift in hurricane pattern that doesn't only include frequency and to a certain extent intensity, but also point of origin.
THAT EYE IS TIGHENING UP
could we see the dreaded pin hole eye

are ya here taz you don't want to miss it
456 what you think about this wave ??? looks nic huh can you give me and update on it and tell me what you think about it thanks

I dont think Bertha is done with the east coast yet!
2030. juniormeteorologist 10:52 PM EDT on July 07, 2008

I think cone's expanded on the west at the same time, though. There sure are a lot of bases to be covered out there . . . lol
Very interesting pic.....hum...

the west side of this storm is getting slowly shredded away.
2031. BahaHurican 10:53 PM AST on July 07, 2008

true. BTW Dennis was in 2005
Not a fish storm!
The storm is supposed to stall and meander.
If it heads in the same path the NHC is predicting, Bermuda could get it. You have to remember how erratic storms move when the steerring currents are week.
Bermuda needs to watch out!
anyone see that wave that will come off of africa in a couple days, it looks vigorous
2041. pottery
Post 2016 from 456
Emily was the only other july CV storm. In 2005.
There was something else about 2005, to take note of......
And this one is EARLIER ??

Yoiks !
2033. Tazmanian 10:54 PM EDT on July 07, 2008
456 what you think about this wave ???


Taz, don't u agree with me that this is the next wave to watch? Look at how far north it is! And there looks like a lot of energy potential as well.
TampaSpin looks like all modes are now pointing W???
456 please check my blog out please.
Whoa!
That wave is freakin HUGE!
And it looks mean!
That thing would be scary if it developed.
2046. JRL28
I found this comment from the 11:00 discussion very interesting.

"By days 4 and 5 the steering currents
are forecast to collapse and Bertha will probably meander for a
little bit."

I'm no met by any means but it seems to me that the NHC has no more of a clue than I do as to where Bertha will end up. I was curious what those of you who know more than I do think of this.
3 things

1- its beginning eyewall replacement obviously

2- she may do a jeane thing..... or at least loop

3- off the african coast is a trof known to some as the "dagger of death" that essentially squashes everything coming off when present
Quoting 2041. BahaHurican:
2033. Tazmanian 10:54 PM EDT on July 07, 2008
456 what you think about this wave ???


Taz, don't u agree with me that this is the next wave to watch? Look at how far north it is! And there looks like a lot of energy potential as well.


yes
2043. Tazmanian 10:59 PM EDT on July 07, 2008
TampaSpin looks like all modes are now pointing W???


Ya but, why wasn't NHC seeing that. What are they seeing that the models do. They must have there reasoning.
any models hinting at development of that wave thats gonna come off of africa?
2041. pottery 10:57 PM AST on July 07, 2008

Yea...they were two other CV storms later in 2005, Irene and Maria.

=======================================
Taz, that is one massive wave. Conditions seem marginally favorable in the EATL and even more favorable in the CATL over the next 5 days, so its an area to watch. No model support tho. But its size is remarkable.
But it appears to coming off pretty north also.


2052. centex
When did this blog start banning the most accurate forecasters? Long live DRAK. Sorry no pics of flipper.
2053. Patrap
"Westeria" setting in...late.

ESL WV Loop with Dry Air Shaded..

wnw at 300 true Link

A lil dry air intrusion sputters da motor...
tampaspin can i get a link to those models please?
okay so the center of Bertha may be east of Bermuda Island?
drak got banned? whats up with the admins these days...
baha..that cone has the right name

the cone of uncertaintly..lol

i see that the cone is still expanding west whichs can indicate why the models are begining to point west.
2058. 7544
tampa max mayfield once said that the gfdl is the nhc fav. model and they judge by that one . this maybe why the nhc is sticking on whatever the gfdl says :)
I'm off - thanks for all the info, I'm sure it will still be there tomorrow :}
2053. Patrap 11:03 PM EDT on July 07, 2008
"Westeria" setting in...late.

ESL WV Loop with Dry Air Shaded..

wnw at 300 true Link


Thats a nice loop Patrap
2061. Patrap
UNCLASSIFIED

FNMOC WXMAP Model: NOGAPS Area: Tropical Atlantic SLP [hPa] 500-1000 hPa thickness [m] 700 hPa VV [Pa s-1] Link
2058. I used to like the gfdl and it was pretty accurate, but it has become less reliable over the last couple of years...
peeking in for a few before bed...
2064. Patrap
You can find that here and bookmark the LSU ESL Site Tampaspin Link
wave over africa is impressive before any conclussions are drawn must wait till offshore and maintaining itself over open water must be at 10n better yet more closer to 11n heat contend is high confidence is mod in dev not done cooking yet needs a few more days to get offshore
Lurked & read through most of the posts...

Bertha has surprised many and many more surprises may come! Did anyone think she was going to be a CAT 3??

Take care and thanks to all for your comments and posts....
I just saw Tigger pop in - have to say hello & see how things are up your way..
Been waiting all day to get off of work so I can come home and see what I forecasted to actually come true! I said that Bertha wasn't a threat or problem for the east coast and Bertha's track is so far away from the east coast there is no possible/likely way she's going to come all the way back to the left and hit the U.S. Jury's still out but Bertha could hit or swipe Bermuda but I think it's likely that bertha is going to pass to the right of Bermuda and go out to sea only giving Bermuda some swells. Watch by 5am advisory Bertha's track will be shifted slightly even more to the right. Not bragging it's just that I am so proud of myself with this being the first storm that I tried to forecast on my own (I'm a met. student so I get to go tell my professors that I applied what I larned in class and used it in a real life setting).
every year and storm is its own. referential data seems to apply only with the best statistical models which can never grasp the necessary variables. go figure Allison which turned circles over houston- we were told that we may get a strong wave of storms for about a day. i am obviously very new to deconstructing weather models/satellites/data
2070. Patrap
The IR shows how fast dry air and other factors can choke the system

2066. i had a feeling the NHC always underestimates the strength of storms for some reason...
Quoting 2050. Weather456:
2041. pottery 10:57 PM AST on July 07, 2008

Yea...they were two other CV storms later in 2005, Irene and Maria.

=======================================
Taz, that is one massive wave. Conditions seem marginally favorable in the EATL and even more favorable in the CATL over the next 5 days, so its an area to watch. No model support tho. But its size is remarkable.
But it appears to coming off pretty north also.




thanks
2064. Patrap 11:07 PM EDT on July 07, 2008

Thanks Pat
2074. o311
I'm off as well folks. Got another relatively early one so I can enjoy my holiday later this week in peace . . .

Night all! I'm sure I bump into some of u around 5 a. m. . . . lol
ok...BAMM still thinks the trough will either lift or weaken from the looks of it...and we enter "as the Hurricane turns"...
2077. tillou
Nite people.

East coast people, try to get some sleep tonight cause it seems as though you will need it.
2068. how can you say that? jeez trying to curse the conus. im not sure its not a threat until it becomes extra tropical then i can relax
456 are you going to have a blog update for us on it??
2080. Patrap
I wouldnt be surprised to see another ramp up near the late hours overnight ,she still got lots a momentum..
2068
These storms won't always follow what you have learned...they tend to have a mind of their own...
"WESTERIA!" LOL, Pat! But, I don't think Bertha's done going west yet! In fact, Bertha may actually loop or reverse her track after the eCONUS trough's initial influence. Here's why!

Today, and perhaps a bit longer, she's just being influenced by the weakness between the Bermuda High and the Azores High. After getting sheared, still dealing with some dry air, still over less than optimum warm, deep waters - she weakens and again moves westerly with the Bermuda High gettting stronger and ridging. I really expect most of the models to shift substantially west.

But, I hope not! And, maybe the trough will just push her out to sea against that stronger-building high! Ugh, but it's getting harder to discern. Wow, what a storm to follow so early!!!

2066. Beachfoxx 3:08 AM GMT on July 08, 2008
Bertha has surprised many and many more surprises may come! Did anyone think she was going to be a CAT 3??

Take care and thanks to all for your comments and posts....


Category 4 (NHC mentioned it was 115 knots earlier)

Bertha is not going thru an eyewall replacement cycle its under shear.
2085. Patrap
UNCLASSIFIED
FNMOC WXMAP Model: NOGAPS Area: Tropical Atlantic

Low-Mid Trop (850/700/500) PW [mm] and Flow Link
bertha has started feeling the effects of the bermuda high... has started more west and has accelerated in the last half of the frames
2070. Patrap 11:09 PM EDT on July 07, 2008
The IR shows how fast dry air and other factors can choke the system


Pat, that area between 20 - 25N and 50 - 60W has been the graveyard of many a promising tropical system . . .
Some of the weakening could also be attributed to the cooling of night as well as dry air though couldn't it Patrap?
It'll be interesting to see the 5:00 runs...

Ya'll have a good night!

Peace!
2090. pottery
Good posts, Pat.
As usual.
Hi Tigger

how's it going!
2092. Patrap
Im going with the Navy solution for now MLC.

Thats hard for an ol Jarhead sometimes,but they got the sperience .And Big Ol CRAIG Super Crunchers.
All I got is a cranky DELL,..LOL
But the tropics have thrown weirder scenarios before.
Never say Never ,Like I said about Ghost of Ivan,Part 2 in 2004
Sorry typo and long day in the hot sun, relaxing on beach...

Still, I do not think anyone expected Bertha to blow up as she has...
Be interesting tomorrow at 5:00... (thank goodness that is 6:00CST! LOL)

Quoting 2082. HadesGodWyvern:
2066. Beachfoxx 3:08 AM GMT on July 08, 2008
Bertha has surprised many and many more surprises may come! Did anyone think she was going to be a CAT 3??

Take care and thanks to all for your comments and posts....


Category 4 (NHC mentioned it was 115 knots earlier)

hey zoo! ok I guess, not gonna hold my breath for a fish storm till the ridge is 100% deff strong enough to turn the storm
2095. Patrap
Thankx Pottery,evening to yas.

Ivan 04 Link
Specially you tigger - you are further up - more time for it to loop 'd loop!
2097. centex
If your not seeing what you want, you need to wait until we don't have a recurve storm. That is when the senior blog members are at their best. Who wants to particapate in fantasy/ That said it's been a fun record breakng storm. I wish the blog would just keep more to reality.
it ain't over till she makes it to the flemish cap
tell me bout it zoo, ridges have been lifting alot from the SC area or fizzling out here lately...
This time I really am gone - night all
2101. JRL28
I would like to take a moment and thank everybody for making this blog a great place to learn. I enjoy reading the discussions and hearing the different lines of thought. It helps someone like me better understand weather in general, and the tropics in particular.

I'll go back to lurking and come out when I have something intelligent to add to the conversation.
2102. Patrap
The Doldrum square,,seems that they survive that early pulse,or they fizzle after..but some models have even shown an Open wave out in time.
So Bertha best find her Mojo,..or she may go Poof and be a One Night stand.

Think of all the crushed Dudes.
2103. Buhdog
MLC--- what is with that huge swath of green all over southwest florida on your blog? The map with 4 graphs had us here soaked!!!
Hades,

No, wait. Bertha is a CAT 3. I rechecked and no typo... I read NHC as 120 mph. That is still CAT 3.

Geez, the sun must be having a strange effect on my brain...

Tell me I haven't lost it!
I hope the people who strongly believe in the models, that have Bertha going East of Bermuda, knows if this storm went DEAD WEST it would be to far south to even reach Florida.

Im not saying it wont recurve but I wouldnt be so confident with it recurving this early.
from 20-21N bertha seemed to actually moving NNW, but she has started to curve more toward the west and seems, to me at least, to have started accelerating in the last couple of frames

any thoughts?
MLC alot of similar things on your blog and mine are discussed. see this....Link
"Wow, what a storm to follow so early!"--Moonlight Cowboy.

Bertha has certainly been interesting. I agree with Drak though and think she is off to sea...however, it is interesting that dry air and shear will weaken the system and that is supposed to be what would keep her from going north. So the situation remains perplexing.
If I lived in Bermuda, I'd making sure I had candles, hurricane lanterns and supplies for a few days...since it looks probable this storm will impact that area somehow.
ok peeps, gotta go to bed, early day tomorrow...will blog from work if I get a break...still waiting on the results of the ridge in a few days...hitting costco tomorrow or wednesday for extra batteries just in case :), most everything else ready...2 generators, canned foods, powdered milk and drinks, bottled water, baby wipes, etc...been ready since May 31st
she wants to go north but she can't shes rethinking her path of less resistance
Haven't been around for a few days (computer problems).. and wow.. has Bertha grown!!
2098. Exactly, Keeper! ;)
Some of us are better for entertainment value than anything else JRL28. Drak was amazing are/is Patrap, Tampaspin. Ignore the comments about lawyers with avatars with cool shades. Oh wait....! Just kidding. I'm in property management and I have to watch all this to triage things, in advance. 1 day late with prep may as well be 2 weeks late, upset entitled wealthy folks tend to be difficult to placate, so that's why I be here. Yup.
2046. JRL28 11:02 PM EDT on July 07, 2008
I found this comment from the 11:00 discussion very interesting.

"By days 4 and 5 the steering currents
are forecast to collapse and Bertha will probably meander for a
little bit."



I guess its something for us to wait & see. Bertha has been full of surprises. Look forward to what's being discussed on Tuesday.
mlc what amazes me the most today is she got to c4 around 4 pm at dmin in 27 degree water bertha the rule buster
2117. pottery
Post 2113 Baha.
That seems to show Bertha ignoring the high and its influences completely. Whats up with that ? I cant figure........
2118. pottery
I'm out all.
Everyone stay safe.
Tomorrow will be.........
2119. Patrap
2120. centex
it's recurving like most expected. So much and so soon that any slowing and more west later still means east of Bermuda.
Here in Southeast Florida, I'm not letting my guard down at all yet. Ever since Andrew, I will never let my guard down on a storm that is forecasted by so many to curve out to sea.

Based upon the latest satellite imagery, it has become clear that Bertha has weakened some and has begun accelerating towards the west over the past couple hours. We will have to wait and see if this trend continues. If so, the ballgame will change big time.
2103. That's a 12, 24, 36 and 48-hr forecast by The National Center for Atmospheric Research.
2120.

shes not gonna recurve right into the bermuda high... watch the satilite shes starting to accelerate again and turning more to the west, shes starting to get influenced by the high
anyone seen the wave coming off of africa?
CCHS Check this out...Link
Have a good sleep, Pottery!

Yeah, Keeper - she's a rule buster for sure! Whoa!
2127. Patrap
300degrees true wNw..@13 Observed



Nightey folks.
2128. yamil20
agree with you completely CCHS
I, Patrick, greatly and tremendously thank all of you for the wonderful and insightful coverage, the roll on the ground humor, and the good times for all.

To all a good night, and a good night to all.

YEAH!
2125. great blog as always TS and i agree with you the conus should still be watching this very carfully as i am in VA
2124. cardinal56 11:44 PM AST on July 07, 2008

Yes...In fact, the GFS develops that wave in the CATL, and sends it into the Caribbean, about a week from now. That wave should emerge tomorrow, so we'll see what happens...
We'll the NW turn has started, and the latest IR images shows that the SW edge of the storm is beginning to erode, and that the cloud tops have begun to warm a bit and shear is obviously going on now.

Now the twisted part. If the storm shears enough it will weaken which means less influence by the weakness in the high. This means that Bertha could turn more westward into a more favorable environment.

I think by this AM we will see a weakened storm. 50/50 being a tropical storm or cat 1 hurricane.
2133. centex
like many of cch post but this is a weakenng recurve storm.
Weather456 you're a smart man...but Emily was NOT a Cape Verde hurricane.

Basically, you have to be at least a TD by 40W to be a CV storm, and Emily wasn't. Emily was a CATL storm, not Cape Verde. I'm sick and tired of hearing the false accusation of Emily being a cape verde hurricane.


I think if the African Wave becomes 94L and Cristobal he will follow in Bertha's footsteps IMO.
Yawner, but relevant. The Sea Surface Temperature anomalies (SST). This is helping offset the dry air and provide an IV, just a bit. Note the higher than usual temps @ Bermuda. Keeper, your avatar gives me the willies. Well, let's see what the PhDs prognosticate tomorrow. I used to do that, until I got caught. Glad you're here, Trouper415, Kaiman. Hope you are right, Drak, Centex, y'all that have it goin' to lobsterland. G'night all!

Link
Hey MLC, Trouper!! How's it going, guys?
Question. Why does everyone call it "recurvature"? It should be called curvature, unless the system has already curved once before. It doesn't make any sense to say a storm is recurving if it has never curved before.
Tomorrow will be an important day in determining where Bertha will eventually go and how strong she will be. My bottomline tonight is this. Noone residing along the Eastern Seaboard from Southern Florida to Maine should let their guard down yet. This forecast is based upon some great timing coming together. There are just way too may complex factors to determine surehandedly where Bertha will go.
if the african wave develops near where Bertha did it will probably be a fish storm like bertha


however if it develops in the CATL as suggested by the GFS it may make it into the caribbean


wait and see...
Good Evening, JFV!
Chances are very slim that this system will have any direct impact on the East Coast. The longwave trough moving east at the end of this weekend/beginning of next week ought to sweep Bertha into the westerlies.
yeah, I agree, this one will be a fish storm unfortunately. I just don't see it not making the turn out to sea now.
2130. vabeachurricanes222 11:49 PM EDT on July 07, 2008

thank you
however if it develops in the CATL as suggested by the GFS it may make it into the caribbean

Yeah, it looks like the GFS keeps the Twave weaker than Bertha, thus it takes a more southerly course
Good evening, Ryan!

How you be?
2137 cchsweatherman: Good question. Recurvature? Irrellevant? Could be like fried and refried (gotta fry them once then fry them again). Of course, in Spanish "to gather up" is recojer, just plain "cojer" is ... well, try BabelFish. =) Alex Trebek, we need a ruling! Back to Bertha (great band name, don't you think?) its averaging out wNw, agreed, but she is wobbling like you would expect from a Bertha, kinda big lopsided gait there...it jogs up N then back west to the left...big steps there...
SULLY! Hey, man! What the heck is going on? Can you explain this madness?

I'm thinking before it's all said and done this weekend, we might still see Berthing looping and coming back at us! Maybe even coming up your way!

Here's why!

Too, I was just looking at the upper level jet over the CONUS, It's running flat across the upper US, and the trough dropping over the central plains isn't very deep! The 7-DAY forecast looks as if the BHigh gets stronger and the high over the eCONUS recedes and erodes the trough coming across the CONUS.

2150. centex
when a storm recurves its when curving from west to east.
Here are some observations I have just made based upon the latest satellite imagery.
1) Dry air has begun eating at the western edge of Bertha. You can see this as convection dissipating.
2) Bertha has now started leveling out and moving towards the west. I expect to start seeing it accelerate towards the west soon.
3) The eye seems rather unstable right now. It could be an eye-wall replacement cycle, but it appears that some cloud cover may be starting to cover the eye.

All in all, I'm watching Bertha begin to weaken now.
So Bertha has curves and recurves? Don't make her mad!
on the weather channel sat loop it looks like bertha is going more nw.will this trend cont?
Good night all! Can't wait to see what I'll wake up to, in regards to Bertha. Lets see if it pulls off another surprise overnight.
Hi, sully!

I'm doing fine (just busy doing hurricane research)...how about you?
MLC,

I think Bertha is going to toy with us by making a westward jog or two, but the difference between the trough forecast to move off the coast Wednesday and the one forecast to move off the coast late Sunday/early Monday is wavelength.

Both troughs don't have much amplitde but the trough moving off the coast Wednesday is a shortwave that doesn't stand much chance at eroding the ridge or breaking through the ridge axis.

The trough forecast to move off the coast late Sunday/early Monday is a longwave trough and should have a greater effect on eroding the western periphery of that ridge. I do see ridging developing quickly over the Southeast, but enough of a weakness should be present over the western Atlantic to capture Bertha and send her on her way (hopefully bypassing Bermuda at a safe distance in the process).
1) Dry air has begun eating at the western edge of Bertha. You can see this as convection dissipating.

If dry air was going cause a temporary weakening, it would have happened much earlier today. Bertha has plowed through a ton of dry air without weakening, and is 3/4 of the way past it. The itcz disturbance SE of Bertha is feeding moist air back in to fight the dry zone, as I see it.
Good night, CCHS!
2158. Very nice, Sully! Thanks, and let's hope so! That'd be ideal!
JFV, the season has already been quite surprising. When it comes to the tropics just about anything can happen. Bertha's already re-proven that! But, a one word answer would be - "yes!"
Here's the African blob link. Nobody took my $1 bet on Bertha riding WWNW and splitting off the coast, 100/1 Vegas odds. You just think I'm not serious. Whoever said that even if Big Bertha heads due West she won't make the coast (and she won't likely get that far with the current deterioration, per Patrap's earlier prognos. and CCHS), you need to look at Latitude lines on this link. =) Just being helpful.


Link
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SAT_NHEM/atlanim8ir.html
Ryan,

Sort of the same, my friend. I must say, thus far I'm quite pleased at my forecast for Bertha. I hinted at the possibility of Cat3 being attained quickly, given the storms' compact structure as of yesterday afternoon.

And thus far the hurricanes' track has behaved in similar fashion to what I had been anticipating although it has taken a slight northward jog over where I thought it would be tonight.

Otherwise I've been good. Garden is going great, too.
2168. scla08
The latest satellite images show a decent jog to the west.
G'night all! Going for salsa and chips!
Bertha moving closer to nwd motion. Maybe this the recurve...wouldn't have expected it, but she's strong enough to be making her own rules.
Good night all. Will wait and see what NWS Wilmington [NC] says about the late-week trough dissapating tomorrow.
2173. Michfan
Wait to see if the west jog is a wobble or something consistent. Give it more than a frame or two.
Given that Bertha is still a powerful hurricane, these ''wobbles/jogs'' to the west are always possible (the general movement is still WNW).

Anyway, I'm out...see y'all tomorrow...
2175. centex
sometimes forecasters can't see forest for the trees.
Well, according to post 1678, Bertha's proper name is "Bigun."
The current westward jog is likely due to convective inertia from the most recent flare up on the western eyewall.

Goodnight, Ryan!
Agree completely with SullivanWeather. That trough over the Great Lakes is very strong and is headed toward the Atlantic. Check it out on satellite. Its producing severe weather right now.
All of the models have a good read on this trough. This trough is strong eneough that at the very least will pull Bertha well to the north and east. I think she MAY get left behind by the trough(too early to say for sure), but even if she does, the chances of Bertha curving back and hitting the U.S. are miniscule at best. Betsy and Jeanne are rare examples of storms that pulled this off but they were at lower latitudes and much closer to the U.S than Bertha will be. Not trying to rain on anyone's parade, just calling it like I see it.
shes a weakening and starting to go more wnw....have to see what the am brings....night all...should be an interesting day tommorrow...
Another view before bed.........models will be going west with the BAM models watch.
RE #2178:

I'm not forecasting Bertha to be picked up by the trough currently over the Great Lakes....

I'm talking about the following trough off the coast of British Columbia. The following trough should have a greater wavelength hence a greater surge of westerlies.

The trough currently over the Great Lakes should be deflected to the north of the deep layer ridge over the western/central Atlantic. This should slow the cyclone down once again and induce another northward turn. Basically, another step in the stairs. Ultimately, the next trough will recurve Bertha.
Nite everyone.
Quoting 2151. cchsweatherman:
Here are some observations I have just made based upon the latest satellite imagery.
1) Dry air has begun eating at the western edge of Bertha. You can see this as convection dissipating.
2) Bertha has now started leveling out and moving towards the west. I expect to start seeing it accelerate towards the west soon.
3) The eye seems rather unstable right now. It could be an eye-wall replacement cycle, but it appears that some cloud cover may be starting to cover the eye.

All in all, I'm watching Bertha begin to weaken now.


If the storm starts to move westerly, Florida, NC, SC & GA would need to keep a clear eye on it. Last time i heard, if it moves westerly, it will stall out.
Welll Seems Bertha Will be swimming with the Fishes.....

Anyway I would like to point out to yalll that Bertha has intensified from a TS to a Cat3 in one day....that's after they said that a Tropical Depression let alone would not develop. One big slap in the face of Climatology.

07/07 3 GMT 18.60 -48.90 65 994 Tropical Storm
07/07 9 GMT 19.30 -50.20 75 987 Category 1 Hurricane
07/07 15 GMT 19.60 -51.30 90 994 Category 1 Hurricane
07/07 15 GMT 19.60 -51.30 90 975 Category 1 Hurricane
07/07 21 GMT 20.10 -52.10 115 948 Category 3 Hurricane
Quoting 2100. JRL28:
I would like to take a moment and thank everybody for making this blog a great place to learn. I enjoy reading the discussions and hearing the different lines of thought. It helps someone like me better understand weather in general, and the tropics in particular.

I'll go back to lurking and come out when I have something intelligent to add to the conversation.


It's certainly an improvement over the trolling and personal attacks of the past couple of years. The mods seem to be more on the ball, even if it means Drak gets a ban for posting fish pics. It's all about following the rules, folks.
If they were wrong about the intensity, they could be wrong with the track. I hope it stays with its WNW to slight move to the NE as predicted.
Waited for these before bed.....here is the new stearing maps.......high appears to be getting stronger WEST the Girl goes.

Steering Layer 300-850mb


Steering Layer 400-850mb


Steering Layer 500-850mb
SullivanWeather RE #2178:

I'm not forecasting Bertha to be picked up by the trough currently over the Great Lakes....

I'm talking about the following trough off the coast of British Columbia. The following trough should have a greater wavelength hence a greater surge of westerlies.

The trough currently over the Great Lakes should be deflected to the north of the deep layer ridge over the western/central Atlantic. This should slow the cyclone down once again and induce another northward turn. Basically, another step in the stairs. Ultimately, the next trough will recurve Bertha.


I see ur point there, but right now I can't confidently predict the where and when of a trough over BC this far out in time. But that trough over the Great Lakes though, whether it recurves Bertha completely(unlikely at this time) or just pulls her to the north and east and leaves her behind will effectively end Bertha's chances of hitting U.S. because she will be pulled too far north and east for any trough of substance to bypass her. But I do agree with u that she will miss the U.S.
Expect a turn west in the next 12 to 18 hrs.
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 08 JUL 2008 Time : 044500 UTC
Lat : 21:06:34 N Lon : 52:48:58 W

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.9 / 951.3mb/112.4kt

Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
5.1 5.0 5.0

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.9mb

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 15 km

Center Temp : -3.6C Cloud Region Temp : -53.0C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : FLAG

****************************************************

Currently 112.4 kts...129.4 mph.
turning west now...
Convection on the rebuild with Bertha.
West indeed...
Bertha is weakening Significantly now ADT has Dropped by 1.0 in the past advisory.

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 08 JUL 2008 Time : 051500 UTC
Lat : 21:09:11 N Lon : 52:47:20 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.9 / 951.3mb/112.4kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
5.1 5.1 5.1

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.9mb

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 16 km

Center Temp : +2.4C Cloud Region Temp : -52.9C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : FLAG

2197. 0741
i have to see if that was wobble or it started on west movement again time will tell during overnight
Stormchaser, the rapid and weakening flags are absolutely wrong, how is a CAT 3 going to rapidly Dissipate?
Still sticking to my wet weekend in Bermuda forecast, with Bertha passing to the East by hundred or so miles...
not a wobble...going west. G'night all...tomorrow should be interesting!
23N/65W is what i am thinking the coming days.
2202. 7544
west on this end
2203. JLPR
If anyone wants to join The 2008 Hurricane contest Go HERE and share your predictions for this season =) I will add you right away. Don't keep your predictions(or gut feelings lol) to yourself come and join the many others that have shared them =).
6hr avg: 295°
2hr avg: 290°
Good overnight, JLPR!

How goes it?
2206. JLPR
lol more like good morning =P

Well doing good here, I have no idea how I am up this late since I got up very early in the morning but here I am lol =P

How are you doing?
Not too bad. Just got done making some late night hot dogs...lol

Other than that just keeping tabs on Bertha and slowly starting to doze off...haha
the bamm and lbar are now in agreement with the curve. No more westcast
2209. JLPR
lol
Im in the same situation but without the hot dogs lol =P
2210. hahaguy
I couldn't sleep so thought why not check what's going on in the blog lol.
2211. JLPR
the models:
2212. hahaguy
Hey send those dogs here lol
2213. JLPR
wow mini Bertha lol

its so small
2214. GetReal




This may assist some in reading the last post of the maps by TS....
2215. JLPR
ah lol guys come on lol someone drop some predictions in my blog =P The contest has been stuck at 44 entries for some time now =S
2216. JLPR
hahaguy lol

I think hot dogs wouldnt do good in my stomach at this hour =P
2217. hahaguy
wow bertha did get really small, it's most likely weakening.
2218. JLPR
lol yep maybe thats why it strengthen so quickly these little ones tend to do that =P
but if it keeps shrinking its going to disappear lol
Hahaguy, convection is rebuilding, its much better than a few hours ago.
2220. hahaguy
but she peaked out earlier at 135mph
Bertha has been quite the storm, keeping us guessing at every turn. Something tells me we are in for a very interesting season in 2008.
2222. hahaguy
but the cloud tops look a little warm. Agreed druseljic.
2223. JLPR
well im out
good night everyone or good morning
choose the one that best fits to you lol
Dream with Bertha or with hot dogs lol
=P
seems to me like the clouds in the eye have been clearing out along with the main part of her becoming more symetrical ... i have a feeling shes just going through a phase right now and will sustain cat 3 status through morning ... just my feelings, but i have to agree she might dissappear if the trend keeps up :-P
So we should see storms like Bertha if the weather pattern holds right?

More Bermuda storms?
im am still waitin on the 5am advisory
2228. KRL
Adios Bertha!
000
WTNT32 KNHC 080831
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE BERTHA ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008
500 AM AST TUE JUL 08 2008

...POWERFUL BERTHA MAINTAINING MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS...

AT 500 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BERTHA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 21.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 53.3 WEST OR ABOUT 675 MILES...
1085 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS AND ABOUT
1035 MILES...1660 KM...SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.

BERTHA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 120 MPH...195 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. BERTHA IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY MAY OCCUR TODAY...
BUT A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WITHIN THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115
MILES...185 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 955 MB...28.20 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 500 AM AST POSITION...21.4 N...53.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH
THE EYE OF THE HURRICANE HAS BECOME A LITTLE LESS DISTINCT OVER THE
PAST SEVERAL HOURS. NONETHELESS...BERTHA HAS BEEN MAINTAINING A
FAIRLY SYMMETRICAL RING OF COLD CLOUD TOPS AROUND THE CENTER.
SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE COME DOWN SLIGHTLY
BUT CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES...BOTH OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE...
REMAIN CLOSE TO 105 KT. HENCE THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS UNCHANGED.
SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ASSOCIATED WITH EYEWALL REPLACEMENTS
COULD OCCUR WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO. IN THE LONGER-TERM...
THE ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BECOME LESS CONDUCIVE FOR
STRENGTHENING AS BERTHA MOVES TOWARDS HIGHER LATITUDES. THIS IS
REFLECTED IN THE SHIPS MODEL...WHICH WEAKENS BERTHA TO MINIMAL
HURRICANE STRENGTH BY 72 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST
CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS ICON.

EYE FIXES GIVE A MOTION ESTIMATE OF 310/9 WHICH IS SLIGHTLY TO THE
RIGHT OF PREVIOUS ESTIMATES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE NOW IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT BERTHA WILL HEAD FOR A WEAKNESS IN THE
MID-TROPOSPHERIC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND TURN NORTHWARD LATER IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS
HAVE BEEN CALLING FOR THIS SCENARIO MORE CONSISTENTLY THAN THE
OTHER GUIDANCE OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK
FORECAST IS ADJUSTED EAST OF THE PREVIOUS ONE BUT IS STILL TO THE
WEST OF MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL TRACKS AS WELL AS THE MODEL
CONSENSUS. BY DAY 5...STEERING CURRENTS COULD BECOME QUITE WEAK
AND BERTHA MAY MOVE SLOWLY AND ERRATICALLY AS IT WAITS TO BE
EVENTUALLY PICKED UP BY A TROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 08/0900Z 21.4N 53.3W 105 KT
The advisory is out-- She hasn't lost any strength. I do hope she stays at sea.
Movement to the North-West
track looks like its more east of the Bermuda Island than the 11pm EDT.

INITIAL 08/0900Z 21.4N 53.3W 105 KT
12HR VT 08/1800Z 22.2N 54.4W 100 KT
24HR VT 09/0600Z 23.4N 55.9W 95 KT
36HR VT 09/1800Z 24.7N 57.4W 90 KT
48HR VT 10/0600Z 26.0N 58.6W 85 KT
72HR VT 11/0600Z 28.0N 59.5W 80 KT
96HR VT 12/0600Z 30.0N 59.5W 75 KT
120HR VT 13/0600Z 32.0N 59.0W 70 KT - (northwest movement)


Yeah .. People in Bermuda could finally blow a sign of relief.
well...bertha tracks are still got her makin dat turn..
yeah, but I don't count ( I'm in Australia )

hehehe
RSMC: India Meteorological Department (New Delphi, India)

Tropical Cyclone Outlook (0600z 08JUL)
==================================
Yesterday's low pressure area over north Bay of Bengal and adjoining coastal areas of Gangetic, West Bengal and Bangladesh persists and has become well marked.
2239. TayTay
Quoting 2216. hahaguy:
wow bertha did get really small, it's most likely weakening.


Usually the other way around. When they get this small, they're usually quite intense.
first depression to form overland this year in the northern indian ocean?
do you think that it may have peaked out at Cat 4 intensity with 135 mph winds
Is there a glitch on wunderground? The main page gives Bertha 120 MPH winds.

post 2242
BERTHA IS 120MPH AT 5 AM TODAY. THE PAGE IS CORRECT
Good morning All,

Bertha will start losing stregnth (she hasn't yet but her pressure already rose from 952 mb at 11pm advisory to 955mb at the 5am advisory thats a sign of weakening) and keep thi trend going for awhile. Bertha has slowed down from 15mph to 12 to now going 10mph and is now moving to the NW this is a sign that sooner rather than later she'll make that move to the north then to the NE. The U.S. is absolutely in the clear from Bertha but Bermuda may need to keep just one eye on this storm even though to be honest I think Bermuda is in the clear but better to be safe then sorry. Lastly, I think that we should start seeing the track for Bertha slightly shifted even more to the right with the 11am advisory and depending on how much she weakens we may see a short westward jog but only temporary and short lived. When she is captured by the trough Bertha still will head out to sea but I'd keep only one eye on the storm if I lived in Bermuda.
As long a Bertha is meandering in the C At. dont expect any other development Consider it a blocker. Have a a nice Tues.
2246. cg2916
2244.
In the dvorak analysis, it's weakinging slightly but getting more organized.
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 08 JUL 2008 Time : 094500 UTC
Lat : 21:31:20 N Lon : 53:14:10 W

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.3 / 964.8mb/ 97.2kt

Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
4.8 4.2 4.2

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.8mb

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 12 km

Center Temp : -17.8C Cloud Region Temp : -45.3C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : FLAG

****************************************************

Bertha is weakening... 97.2 kts as per ADT.
97.2 kts approx. equal 111.9 mph, still at barely, Cat 3 strength.
2248. cg2916
2241. Yes, it was a Cat 4. I saw it on the Dvorak analysis.
2249. cg2916
Actually, the pressure's rising but the winds are slowing.
2250. cg2916
I mean the pressure's dropping. Sorry.
2251. IKE
Bertha is weakening... 97.2 kts as per ADT.
97.2 kts approx. equal 111.9 mph, still at barely, Cat 3 strength.



Good....head on out to the north Atlantic graveyard Bertha...it's over for her........
I thought it was a cat 3 not 4. Swell wise Melb. mentioned 3-4ft possible Thur. night Fri but I doubt it. She needs to move west more still a possibility of getting skunked on this one.
Southwesterly wind shear seems to be effecting Bertha. The eye feature is located in the western part of the CDO and has become less discernible. The cloud pattern overall is fairly well-organized so only slow weakening should occur.
2248.

Keep in mind subjective estimates from the TAFB and SAB never reached Category four strength.
2255. cg2916
If it gets weaker and more compact, it could avoid the Bermuda high and ridge.
2256. IKE
She's at.......

21.7N
53.3W
2257. cg2916
Which would make Bertha somehow hit the east coast. According to the last two Dvorak scans, it's winds are slowing down but it's pressure is dropping. It's becoming more organized and compact. It is headed slightly south and is expected to.
Nice cloud pattern with a smaller eye it looks like. However, eye temp on ADT is in the negative range and there doesn't seem to be as much of a ring of cold cloud tops around the center anymore. Eye still well-defined but less-defined from yesterday.

2259. IKE
20+ knots of shear over her.......

Link
2261. cg2916
2254. It took the NHC 10 years to fid out Andrew was a Cat 5, not a Cat 4.
2262. cg2916
That should weaken her and make her avoid the ridge, she's doing it now.
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 08 JUL 2008 Time : 101500 UTC
Lat : 21:34:12 N Lon : 53:18:01 W

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.1 / 968.8mb/ 92.4kt

Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
4.5 3.9 3.9

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.8mb

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 10 km

Center Temp : -26.1C Cloud Region Temp : -42.9C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : FLAG

****************************************************

OMG it's a CAT2 now.
Andrew was a landfaller this killed fish. Cat 3.
Quoting 2260. cg2916:
2254. It took the NHC 10 years to fid out Andrew was a Cat 5, not a Cat 4.
Yes, and it will take the NHC 10 years to find out Erin was a tropical storm over land, not a low LOL
I would say shear over Bertha can't be much higher than 20 knots because the cloud pattern is still nicely intact.
2267. cg2916
New Dvorak. She's a cat 2 now.
I think it is quite likely that Bertha peaked at category three. Could the winds maybe have been a little higher as the NHC was saying last night? Sure..perhaps 110 knots could have been the peak.
2267.

Thats only one dvorak agency though...we will have to see what the other agencies say.
Those ADT numbers seem to be dropping too fast...I don't understand how it could get a raw T number of 3.9 off this storm when it looks better organized than a 3.9.
2271. cg2916
2269. That was Noaa, the only dvorak agency.
lol nicely intact? she's falling apart..perception is key.
2273. cg2916
2270.
True. True.
2274. cg2916
2272.
No, it's not.
2275. cg2916
The core looks sort of cold. Is it possible she could become a subtropical storm.
2277. IKE
Latest GFS has a system affecting the northern island chain in about a week.......

Link
2278. cg2916
2276. If she stalls, that means East Coast landfall.
2277.

Someone was saying something about that yesterday too. Maybe the GFS is locking on to another area of development.
2280. IKE
Quoting 2277. cg2916:
2276. If she stalls, that means East Coast landfall.


Bertha is not going to affect the USA...never was...it was a fish-storm from the beginning. It developed too far east and too far north.
2281. IKE
Quoting 2278. extreme236:
2277.

Someone was saying something about that yesterday too. Maybe the GFS is locking on to another area of development.


Yup...looks like it.

This one may be a player....maybe.
2283. cg2916
The GFS and GFDL usually nail it. But Bertha is the opposite. It looks like the not-so-reliable BAM models have nailed her.
Example: GFS puts Bertha to be a fish storm.
2272.

Do you read NHC discussions when they said she was still symmetrical. If she were falling apart she wouldn't look this good still. Now, she is certainly being sheared pretty good causing a disruption to her CDO and causing her eye to be on the western side of the CDO. She is intact certainly but weaker? Yes.

2287. cg2916
Yes it does, the ridge weakens, the high moves, it plays into effect.
Quoting 2274. cg2916:
The core looks sort of cold. Is it possible she could become a subtropical storm.

However, although she becomes subtropical, it wouldn't be called "subtropical storm bertha". It is not a storm with winds of 39~73 mph.
2289. cg2916
2288. I meant later.
As long a Bertha spinning moving slow this will prevent development of anyother system in the mdr regions. As being a player Bertha is along way from anywhere on the mainland.
Here's Hurricane Diane from 1990 as a cat 2, and Hurricane Maria from 2005 as a cat 3. I will let you be the judge of whether Bertha looks better than either one or both of these.




2293. cg2916
2290.
Sorry. I meant the high moves and the ridge strengthens.
This one is a fish being sheared. Say bye-bye to Bertha!
It is possible.. but a really small chance. Only a few storms transformed into subtropical cyclones (not from Extratropical cyclones- a lot transform, most recently Tropical Storm Jerry from '07)
2291.

I disagree with that because if you looks she is fairly small and not taking up a lot of room. She isn't creating a lot of outflow that would disrupt another storm. There have been many seasons where systems developed relatively close to each other before also.

2297. cg2916
Looks better than Maria.
2298. IKE
Quoting 2290. leftovers:
As long a Bertha spinning moving slow this will prevent development of anyother system in the mdr regions. As being a player Bertha is along way from anywhere on the mainland.


She's at 52.3W....a system coming off of Africa would be about 20W...that's 2000 miles apart.
Wow she moistened the environment quite significantly behind her.

Cute kid OZ make sure he brushes his teeth after his goodies.
extreme236
lol don't become so attached to the storm..
bertha is heading out to sea and is dying a slow death.. give it a few more frames.. maybe we will see her naked beaver. :)
I am waiting for the 1045 UTC ADT estimates... Currently at 92.4 kt as of 1015 UTC. It should be out by now. 1015 was issued around 7am EDT
2303. cg2916
2302. Me too.
2304. IKE
She's moving east of the tropical forecast points again...looks to be moving almost NNW...

Bermuda should be west of her enough to not be a major threat....

Link
2301.

I'm not attached to her...but your making her out to be weaker and less organized than she is. And her center won't be exposed in a few frames lol
Looks about three inches on my screen ike. Maybe your right. 2000 miles is about Fl. to Colorado wow thats a long way.
10:45 UTC dvorak estimates usually come out at about 8:10-8:30 as they come out later than their ran.
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 08 JUL 2008 Time : 104500 UTC
Lat : 21:43:02 N Lon : 53:21:51 W

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.1 / 968.8mb/ 92.4kt

Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
4.4 3.7 3.7

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.8mb

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 9 km

Center Temp : -31.6C Cloud Region Temp : -42.2C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : FLAG

****************************************************

Finally!! It came out. Wind/Pressure are the same.
The eye is becoming colder, currently at -31.6C. It will probably weaken further
2312. cg2916
New Dvorak. Getting weaker
...
2312.

There isn't much doubt that she is weakening, but that ADT looks like its trying to run a race to see how fast it can weaken her.
I love Crow Sauce Piquant, well...mabe a crow rice-n-gravy would be better.
2316. Patrap
Bertha on WV Loop,dry-air shaded Link

and the IR Loop too Link
small compact storms weaken much faster & easier than larger systems. i guess that would be apparent but thought i'd point it out.
I'm no expert myself but there are alot of people on here this am that don't know what they are talking about. Sorry just had to say it but anyway Bertha's not causing a block on other storm development and Bertha is (I repeat is) going out to sea and Bermuda should see some swells from her hopefully thats it oh and she's weakening but not falling apart as was already said.
2319. IKE
She's at 21.8N and 53.5W...looks like they added a feature on the tropical forecast points..showing the day and time of day of each point...

Link
Blocker term. Oh yeah Steve Lyons said this so really I should give him the credit because I dont know ----.
I thought for sure there was no way she could go any further north with the way the lower level winds are, plus plowing into a 1025mb H.

As you can see, the top is getting sheared off almost dragging her with it.

Thats what I get for thinking.
Yall have fun watching today.
Morning everyone........this is why she is going North..look at the stearing on this map....you can see a High to the Right of Bertha and a Weakness to the NE of Bertha....both influencing the North move....i still think she goes West today tho..
Morning everyone.

I see Bertha is struggling a bit this morning. Certainly the impressive appearance of yesterday afternoon and evening is being challenged as Bertha moves NW into an area of increased shear.

I have to admit I expected Bertha to get a lot closer to land before recurving. On this current track, however, it seems even Bermuda is likely to be spared. I usually hate being wrong, but this is one time I'll be glad to take my crow, season w/ curry and onions, and bake slowly until tender and succulent . . . lol
baha, Bertha is full of unexpectable things. For example, it strengthened from a CAT1 to CAT3 in 6 hrs. It strengthened from a storm to Cat3 in 24 hrs.

(edit) If Bertha was strong enough, it would have controlled itself and move wherever she wanted to.
Quick Question??

By looking at the steering currents that were just posted... Wouldnt you think this storm was going to head west? I dont know much about the steering currents. Could some give me there thoughts on this.

Josh
2310. DestinJeff 7:36 AM EDT on July 08, 2008

Thanks for the link, Jeff. Looking at that map, it seems that what is causing Bertha to make this sharply NW movement is not the weakness in and of itself, but rather the change in location of the Azores end of the AB high. The steering current itself has shifted.

And yeah, I see the point of your question about what happens once she makes the turn . . .
I keep hearing different catagories for the storm. NPR said it was a 3 already, but they often miss facts.
Morning JP, Destin, Baha, cajun and Ike and anyone else of my buddies i have missed.....lol
2331. but they often miss facts

LOL...then why do you listen to a news source you know may be wrong? ;P
Someone may have already answered this. But is there a possibility of her doing a loop and then heading back due West?
2334. of course that's a possibility, but i would believe the probability of that occurring is low...
2336. IKE
Here's the latest from the AP on her...posted about 40 minutes ago....

"Forecasters say Hurricane Bertha could begin to weaken within the next couple of days. As of 5 a.m. EDT Tuesday, the center of the storm was about 675 miles east-northeast of the northern Leeward Islands and about 1,035 miles southeast of Bermuda.

Maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph with some higher gusting. The Category 3 storm is headed to the northwest at about 10 mph.

Bertha is expected to continue heading toward Bermuda. It's unknown if or when the hurricane will make landfall."
Good Morning.........Looks, from the NHC discussion and their 5 day track, that they are "stalling" the storm out in the middle of the Atlantic until she is picked up by a trof late in the week........Given the cooler SST's in the higher latitudes, fluctuating shear issues "out there", and her current movement into a weakness to the North surrounded by hostile wind shear to her North, I don't see her making it all the way back towards the US, or Bermuda, at this point. Also, the forcasted trof is relatively weak (it may not make it all the way out to where the storm is), it seems very possible that Bertha will meander around out there towards the end of the week and die a slow death.......
2338. IKE
Quoting 2333. mcampb2811:
Someone may have already answered this. But is there a possibility of her doing a loop and then heading back due West?


95% chance she's headed to the north Atlantic graveyard.....aka...RIP Bertha.
2339. Patrap
Sounds like a good read to me ,,...Berhta may have a lil Wallop,but she is a very small compact storm with a Minimal sized Hurricane force and greater core. Link


Interesting take OPC has on Bertha's movement on Thursday. Note the L pressure area and the trailing front around 40N 40W. All I have to say is, that surface high looks a lot softer and spongier than it did this time last week; the ridge out to FL certainly doesn't look as impressive as it did earlier. . .

Certainly there seems enough in this picture for a "stall" to take place with Bertha.
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 08 JUL 2008 Time : 111500 UTC
Lat : 21:45:50 N Lon : 53:19:12 W

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.1 / 968.8mb/ 92.4kt

Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
4.2 3.8 3.8

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.8mb

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

Center Temp : -33.1C Cloud Region Temp : -43.0C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : FLAG

****************************************************

Same strength as of 1115 UTC
All i have to say is...... good job NHC... they pretty much predicted what Bertha was going to do yesterday and she's done just that!
Quoting 2330. biff4ugo:
I keep hearing different catagories for the storm. NPR said it was a 3 already, but they often miss facts.


It became a cat 3 yesterday...
2333. pearlandaggie 8:09 AM EDT on July 08, 2008
2331. but they often miss facts

LOL...then why do you listen to a news source you know may be wrong? ;P


Because they are politically correct? :)
2347. IKE
Quoting 2343. marknmelb:
Quoting 2330. biff4ugo:
I keep hearing different catagories for the storm. NPR said it was a 3 already, but they often miss facts.


It became a cat 3 yesterday...


Yeah..a cat 3 starts at 111...so yes she still is a cat 3...they may drop the winds some at the next update...looking at her somewhat sheared appearance.
If she weakens she does not squeeze thru...If she stays strong she could still zip thru...
Ike,
Congradulations you survived the crow lol, I'm sure there will be more storms behind Bertha though and how long will the CONUS luck last? Time will tell.
2341. BahaHurican 8:16 AM EDT on July 08, 2008 That seems about right; a mid July "trof" is not going to make it out to the mid-Atlantic and sweep her away (so far away from CONUS)......Ike got there first this morning with the "RIP" but I think Bertha is "over"..........Getting ready to start following "the models" again (lol) to see where the next storm might spin up........
2352. IKE
Quoting 2347. DestinJeff:
Stalled Bertha? Don't systems become much less predictable when they "stall?" Mainly because they don't really stall, but rather meander and screw with forecasts.


Please don't stall Bertha...just head on out to sea so we can watch the next possible system.
2355. IKE
Quoting 2349. sporteguy03:
Ike,
Congradulations you survived the crow lol, I'm sure there will be more storms behind Bertha though and how long will the CONUS luck last? Time will tell.


I don't think it's all season....not sure it will last another month....

And...oh yeah...put the crow back in the freezer.
2356. IKE
Quoting 2353. Patrap:
The "westeria" has passed...LOL




Amen!
definantly weakening now....the eye is now gone....lets see what happens during the day today. Ill catch you guys later.
02L/H/B/C2
CURR LOC 21.7N/53.4W
MOVEMENT NNW 9KTS
EST PRESS 958MB/WIND 100KTS/GUSTS 120KTS

TRACK MARK
21.9N/53.7W 02L/H/B/C2
22.1N/53.9W
22.3N/54.1W
22.8N/54.5W 02L/H/B/C1
23.1N/55.1W
***STOP***
Good morning everyone. Looks Bertha has moved to the right quite a bit from what the storm track was forecast for. Early in Dr. Masters forecast, and others on the blog indicated that if the bertha intensified, it would probably turn more to the right. I don't see the reason behind this but that's what she did.
Guess they wont be flying out today.

000
NOUS42 KNHC 071300
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0900 AM EDT MON 07 JULY 2008
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 08/1100Z TO 09/1100Z JULY 2008
TCPOD NUMBER.....08-037

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
JWP


2354. Patrap 8:23 AM EDT on July 08, 2008 Lol...But keep that J-Peg "handy" for next few months...........
2362. IKE
Quoting 2352. JFV:
Good Tuesday morning all! Apparently, the latest GFS and UKMET model runs this morning want to form another system of off the African coast at some point this week, and this time, they want to move it all the way across the basin until it makes landfall in the conus. Any thoughts on this potential scenerio folks?


GFS is showing the next system affecting the northern islands...that's not etched-in-stone....beyond that, it's impossible to predict.
1728. cajunkid 7:25 PM CDT on July 07, 2008
we should start to see some of the tops blown NW shortly
Action: Quote | Modify Comment

I was a little early but look now Link
12:15 NASA image shows that Betha's eye is gone on the satellite imagery...I'm sure its still there on microwave imagery.
2365. IKE
Quoting 2359. Kexnicious:
Guess they wont be flying out today.

000
NOUS42 KNHC 071300
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0900 AM EDT MON 07 JULY 2008
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 08/1100Z TO 09/1100Z JULY 2008
TCPOD NUMBER.....08-037

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
JWP




Smart decision....save the gas for the "real" threats.....

Props to the NHC...they did a good job on Bertha.
Gonna get back to some work this morning but I also agree with an earlier post with regard to the NHC tracks on this storm; they deserve big Kudos on this one and get the "Crystal Ball" award on Bertha......BBL
Quoting 2350. weathermanwannabe:
2341. BahaHurican 8:16 AM EDT on July 08, 2008 That seems about right; a mid July "trof" is not going to make it out to the mid-Atlantic and sweep her away (so far away from CONUS)......Ike got there first this morning with the "RIP" but I think Bertha is "over"..........Getting ready to start following "the models" again (lol) to see where the next storm might spin up........


The nice thing for me about that map is that it will allow me to still be "right". The only real prediction I felt justified in making was that Bertha would likely get to 65-70W before recurving. Based on NHCs current track she will barely cross 60W.

OPC's take on things would allow me to both have my crow, seasoned and grilled, and fresh-freeze it for later consumption . . .
2369. IKE
Quoting 2362. cajunkid:
1728. cajunkid 7:25 PM CDT on July 07, 2008
we should start to see some of the tops blown NW shortly
Action: Quote | Modify Comment

I was a little early but look now Link


Yeah...she's definitely peaked out...weakening...getting sheared.
Where are links for the models? The only ones I see are on the WU page.
Patrap, LOL...you never run out
2346. but not right, huh? LOL
Ironically, NHCs track is still west of the model concensus . . . lol
BBL
2379. IKE
Quoting 2374. BahaHurican:
Ironically, NHCs track is still west of the model concensus . . . lol


They'll probably shift it further east..they shift tracks in baby-steps...on purpose.......can't blame them.
i see that drama has relented little today! LOL
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 08 JUL 2008 Time : 114500 UTC
Lat : 21:48:37 N Lon : 53:16:31 W

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.1 / 968.7mb/ 92.4kt

Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
4.1 4.4 3.0

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.7mb

Center Temp : -42.6C Cloud Region Temp : -43.4C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.7T/6hr
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : FLAG

****************************************************

pressure 0.1 mb lower (yeah that's a change lol) It's still weakening. The cloud tops are cooling.
2374. DestinJeff 8:31 AM EDT on July 08, 2008

Jeff, it is too early for that heavy sarcasm, man. I haven't had my second cup of coffee yet!

(Besides, there's nothing here that says the best forecasters can't also be as juvenile about being right as anybody else. Where'd u thing the whole "crow" metaphor came from?)
2387. NEwxguy
I find it interesting that Bertha had such a jump in intensity,with conditions ok,but not exceptional for developement.Would love to have an analysis of what would spur such a rapid increase in intensity.Thats the real fun of watching these storms,is what goes into their developement or lack of.
2388. IKE
Quoting 2376. JFV:
Hmmm, I wonder whether Dr. Master will say this statement once again when he updates his blog later on this morning???

Elsewhere in the tropics

There are no threat areas to discuss in the tropical Atlantic, and none of the models are forecasting tropical storm formation in the next seven days.


Probably....

GFS has some company though........

Link
Quoting 2376. JFV:
Hmmm, I wonder whether Dr. Master will say this statement once again when he updates his blog later on this morning???

Elsewhere in the tropics

There are no threat areas to discuss in the tropical Atlantic, and none of the models are forecasting tropical storm formation in the next seven days.



he all ways dos a i dont think he evere looks at mode runs befor he comes to the blog in the am
2353. JFV 12:22 PM GMT on July 08, 2008

does anyone think that the storm it is forecasting will come from that monster over africa?

[edit] i havent looked at it since yesterday, but i think it was at about the same lattitude as the Cape Verdes(corrrect me if im wrong). that's kind of far north to make it all the way across, isn't it?
2394. IKE
Quoting 2386. NEwxguy:
I find it interesting that Bertha had such a jump in intensity,with conditions ok,but not exceptional for developement.Would love to have an analysis of what would spur such a rapid increase in intensity.Thats the real fun of watching these storms,is what goes into their developement or lack of.


Remember there were some who said she wouldn't get to a cat 3...the TCHP wasn't high enough...imagine what a system could do with high TCHP!!!!

Stay tuned!
Well, TAFB wasn't too impressed w/ last night's exiting area of disturbed weather; no mention of a Twave being added just off the east coast of Africa found in the 8:05 TWD. Should be interesting to see if there is any amplification / rotation with this feature in the next day or two.

Also, I'm keeping an eye on the Twave that just passed through the central Car Sunday and yesterday. This wave was highly amplified and produced a visible cyclonic feature at its northern end on Sunday. If it survives the transition intact, there certainly is enough energy with it to see some development in the very warm waters along the SW coast of Central America.
wow looking very ragged now
i wonder when this is considered
"falling apart" to some of my polictically correct bloggers. :)
Quoting 2393. IKE:
Quoting 2386. NEwxguy:
I find it interesting that Bertha had such a jump in intensity,with conditions ok,but not exceptional for developement.Would love to have an analysis of what would spur such a rapid increase in intensity.Thats the real fun of watching these storms,is what goes into their developement or lack of.


Remember there were some who said she wouldn't get to a cat 3...the TCHP wasn't high enough...imagine what a system could do with high TCHP!!!!

Stay tuned!


Dennis and Emily 2005. Not to mention all the others.
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 21.8N LONCUR = 53.5W DIRCUR = 315DEG SPDCUR = 9KT
LATM12 = 20.6N LONM12 = 52.2W DIRM12 = 315DEG SPDM12 = 9KT
LATM24 = 19.4N LONM24 = 50.7W
WNDCUR = 90KT RMAXWD = 15NM WNDM12 = 105KT
CENPRS = 970MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 100NM RD34SE = 60NM RD34SW = 40NM RD34NW = 100NM

Downgraded to CAT2
morning everyone.... so anyone has news about that wavethat was coming off africa?
Looking at the latest models, I have to say that we should be very wary of the wave currently coming off of Africa. Earlier runs of the GFS forecast this wave to become organized just east of the antilles and continue into the Caribbean. The latest run does not develop the storm as much but still has a weak area moving through next week.
2400. CajunSubbie 8:47 AM EDT on July 08, 2008

Nobody's impressed by the loss of conformation. NHC forecast this 2-3 days ago minimum. We want to see what happens AFTER Bertha gets through this area of increased shear.

This is the "box of doom" area, as seen in previous seasons, and the cause is usually high shear. Last year's Hurricane Karen is one of the better recent examples; the very vigorous circulation just couldn't regroup after passing through this shear belt. There is usually a ULL or two set up near the area to buzzsaw anything that makes it that far.

If Bertha is still at hurricane strength, or very high end TS by this time tomorrow a.m., she has a chance to regroup and regain strength, maybe up to cat 2 before it's all over.

Time will tell.
2406. TayTay
Bertha looks like a cat. 1 again.
Quoting 2394. JFV:
WOW, you can see a very strong ridge directly to the north of the system, might that keep this one on a more westerly course? Good morning Taz!



Good morning evere one 115 for my high today

yes that could keep it W
2410. TayTay
Dry air is getting sucked into the system.
oh it won't be long, tropical storm by 5 today? :)
Hey Lawntonlookers,

Per post #2359...

I have just a minute or so to post, and felt like your post most certainly deserved an adequate explanation. To keep this very short (I wish I had more time to give a very detailed explanation), there is an ULL that has been moving in from the NW of Bertha (now located to the north of Bertha, which is very visible on the WV satellite loops. This has helped create the weakness in the A/B High, and has allowed Bertha to move more NW. It also helps to view the 500mb and 200 mb "vorticity" maps as well when analyzing the ULL you observe on the Satellite loop.

I really gotta go, so I can't give you the detailed synopsis I desire. Simply put, it's always important to look at the visible, Infrared, and I especially like the WV loops to locate the pertinent atmospheric features that will ultimately influence the future track of these storms. Most importantly, I want to wish you and everyone else a great rest of the day.:)

Most sincerely,
Tony
thanks ncforecaster for the great post.
Gee, Taz
115 for you and basically the same for Bertha's winds =)
Id melt in that heat
jphurricane.. they really don't need a cdo either.. many sheared hurricanes end up not having one for a lil bit :)
good morning everyone

I know the focus is still on Bertha but I thought I would mention that the Quikscat pass for this morning shows a weak surface low near 11N 24W.

This matches up well with the 850 mb vorticity which is quite strong in this same area. Perhaps a sleeper to be watched.

No mention of it in the TWD this a.m., probably due to how weak the signature is
Hi JP

Yes, it may well be. I was surprised at the strength of the 850 mb vort.
G'morning Kman! How are your tortugas doing this year? We have more than twice the nests we did last year and now the loggerbacks are starting their nesting season.
Quoting 2387. IKE:
Quoting 2376. JFV:
Hmmm, I wonder whether Dr. Master will say this statement once again when he updates his blog later on this morning???

Elsewhere in the tropics

There are no threat areas to discuss in the tropical Atlantic, and none of the models are forecasting tropical storm formation in the next seven days.


Probably....

GFS has some company though........

Link


After the amazing accuracy of the GFS model from this point on this season when it shows development I believe that we should watch for it ESPECIALLY if there is persistance between model runs.
Quoting 2415. HurrikanEB:
Gee, Taz
115 for you and basically the same for Bertha's winds =)
Id melt in that heat



yup
2421. jamnkats

good morning to you too

Not too sure how the turtles are doing these days. Have not heard much about them lately. We do have a breeding and release programme at our turtle farm but the farm is, shall we say, financially challenged at this time !
Well I am off to work. Will check in later. Have a great day everyone.
by the way where did Ex 93L end up going??
2423. Tazmanian 1:14 PM GMT on July 08, 2008 Hide this comment.

Quoting 2415. HurrikanEB:
Gee, Taz
115 for you and basically the same for Bertha's winds =)
Id melt in that heat




yup
Action: Quote | Ignore User


what is your low let me guess like 90
Just finished my blog update......if anyone would like to view

TampaSpin Blog
2426. Tazmanian 9:18 AM EDT on July 08, 2008
by the way where did Ex 93L end up going??


South America

taz, i asked about that yesterday (93L) your talking about the 1 in the carribean right?? the 1 that was going through all the shear...someone told me it went into S America?? which to me didn't make any sence...but i just let it go..
thanks
well it looks like this year will not be an easy one after all.. An early july major hurricane the looks of another strong system off the african coast and the line up of tropical waves over the african continent.definitely potends to a very active season. the early cape verde season is also a precursor of what to expect.
with bERTHA presumably out of the way , attention must be focused to the distubance off the african coast. it is a large area of disturbed weather with a 1012mb weak near 10n low which is moving at 15 mph. conditions in the vicinity of the system is very conducive for deveopment. and these conditions continue way across the atl to the islands. the gfs and the ukmet develop this system close to the islands in about seven days time. this system which i believe will be the next name storm should be watched and cloely monitored
off to work
2418. kmanislander 9:07 AM EDT on July 08, 2008 "Eagle Eyes" strikes again; actually this "global" view someone posted a few days ago (if this link will work) shows that area and there seems to be some convection associated with it as well....Something to keep an "eye" on perhaps.....

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SAT_NHEM/atlanim8ir.html
Good morning all! It appears that Bertha has significantly weakened overnight as the eye has completely collapsed due to higher wind shear. It appears that dry air arround the storm is taking advantage and eating at the storm. I'm expecting strong Cat. 1 hurricane by days end.

If Bertha significantly weakens, we may see a more westerly component to its track. It should start to move more west soon.
Quoting 2393. IKE:
Remember there were some who said she wouldn't get to a cat 3...the TCHP wasn't high enough...imagine what a system could do with high TCHP!!!!

Stay tuned!


We saw that happen last year with Felix, TS to Cat 5 in a day or so.


Bertha has indeed significantly weakened. The eye has collapsed and the center appears to be on the edge of the CDO. It looks like a Category 1 hurricane right now.
2438. NEwxguy
Whatever Bertha does the next 24hrs,she's moving into a very hostile environment.A ULL to the nw of her,another ull in the northatlantic,a ull moving off the coast of the carolinas,we in new england have a front moving through and off the coast tomorrow night,Bertha is going to be in WWF smackdown.
2435. cchsweatherman 1:32 PM GMT on July 08, 2008


easy come, easy go

good morning cchsweatherman

if she does keep weakening, but doesnt go *poof* won't her chances of moving back west increase. Im not looking for anytype of landfall, just wondering.
Quoting 2440. jphurricane2006:
EB I answered your question on my blog


thanks jp
Jul 14-20 is the British Open, Bertha could have some drives going 100yards,,,,,,LMAO
2444. JRRP
at least we will see an INVEST next week
2445. IKE
NEW BLOG!
2446. Kibkaos
JRRP Where are we going to see an invest next week?
Quoting 2445. Kibkaos:
JRRP Where are we going to see an invest next week?


i think that someone mentioned alittle earlier that one of the modles (GFS?) had a weak something developing east of the windward islands and heading into the caribbean. Im not sure though, just what i seem to recall someone mentioning
Hello all! First time back this season, glad to see some familiar faces. Some may remember me as the St. Kitts guy, posting on and off over the last few seasons. Well, I'm located in Virginia for the time being...but still with my eyes focused on the tropical waters.

Bertha's pretty interesting, eh? I think she may drop to a TS in strength, then regroup...to a 1 or 2 by the end of it. Should be interesting to see if she effects the British Open. That could be alot of fun. Ironic that many players have BIG BERTHA clubs!!! (Sorry- I couldn't help myself)

Anyway.. nice too see y'all... should be an interesting season!