WunderBlog Archive » Category 6™

Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.

Bertha back at Category 2 strength

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:01 PM GMT on July 10, 2008

Hurricane Bertha is back at Category 2 status, and appears destined to become one of the longest-lasting July hurricanes on record. Hurricane Emily of 2005 spent seven full days at hurricane strength in July, which I believe is the record. Bertha is halfway there. The storm is in no hurry to recurve out to sea, and will spend 3-4 more days over waters warm enough to maintain it at hurricane intensity. At that time, wind shear is expected to increase to 30 knots, which should knock Bertha down to tropical storm status. The models continue to show that Bertha may slow down and move erratically this weekend, and possibly threaten Bermuda. By the middle of next week, Bertha should be headed towards the Maritime Provinces of Canada, and may affect them as a tropical storm.


Figure 1. This natural-color image of Hurricane Bertha was captured by the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA's Terra satellite on July 9, 2008, at 14:45 UTC (10:45 a.m. Eastern Daylight Time). Shortly after, the National Hurricane Center estimated that Bertha was a Category 1 storm, with maximum sustained wind speeds of 75 miles per hour. Bertha was compact when MODIS observed it, a small ball of clouds with a long line of thunderstorms trailing away to the southeast. The eye of the storm had clouded over. Image credit: NASA.

Elsewhere in the tropics
There are no threat areas to discuss in the tropical Atlantic. The ECMWF model is predicting that a tropical depression may form between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands in seven days. The UKMET and GFS have shown a similar development during various runs over the past two days, but their current runs are showing just a strong tropical disturbance in this region next week. Stay tuned.

I'll post an update Friday morning.
Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

999. Tazmanian 11:39 PM GMT on July 10, 2008

hi taz..

man this blog has come to a crawl...kinda refreshing, to be honest...quietest its been in about a week
wow for the atlantic those waves coming into Fl are moving quick. 24 mph http://magicseaweed.com/Wave-Buoy/41009/ If you dont know much about ocean swells study this page and others the website offer. 24mph Otherwise Bertha might be around Bermuda for a while east coast surfer deserve something like this. Nothing else of worry. Good night.
1004. msphar
neat pictures! That gives my the willies just looking at on the blog.
Eye replacement cycle is occurring..she will strengthen after this.......dmax will be big time.
Quoting intunewindchime:
is Cristobal a male or female name? Never heard it before.

===
The storm names for the Atlantic goes male, female, male..ect this year.
I just finished my blog update....if anyone wants to review.
TampaSpins Blog
The area the GFS develops is a large wave (the blob out ahead of the African coast and the one about to emerge off it are both part of it) with broad PV. The GFS has a system developing within the wave axis in 54-60 hours, born out of an interaction with the ITCZ.

The GFS establishes the vortex at about 5N 30W and it may initially have trouble establishing a rotation due to proximity to the equator.

PV (Potential Vorticity) on the left; NASA satellite image on the right...

The Tomb of Christopher Columbus, in the Cathedral of Seville:
1010. msphar
well then, do they timeshare the bones ??
1005. TampaSpin 6:48 PM EST on July 10, 2008
Eye replacement cycle is occurring..she will strengthen after this.......dmax will be big time.


An EWRC has been occurring since late this morning. Core (eyewall) temperature is cooling rapidly now, making way for the outer eyewall to replace the weakening inner eyewall. You can see the inner eyewall weakening on the MIMIC infared scans.

This storm just keeps getting more interesting!
1010. msphar

Nope, apparently his remains have been moved quite a bit; part of him was found in Santo Domingo in 1877...any debate about those remains actually being his were finally put to rest by DNA testing in 2003, so part of him is in Seville, and part of him resides in the Faro A Colon...
Quoting TerraNova:
1005. TampaSpin 6:48 PM EST on July 10, 2008
Eye replacement cycle is occurring..she will strengthen after this.......dmax will be big time.


An EWRC has been occurring since late this morning. Core (eyewall) temperature is cooling rapidly now, making way for the outer eyewall to replace the weakening inner eyewall. You can see the inner eyewall weakening on the MIMIC infared scans.

This storm just keeps getting more interesting!

Next thing we know it'll steer its way towards NYC...lol
BBL gonna watch the rest of the RAYS game..GO RAYS!
1016. amd
looking at the satellite picture on the wunderground page, and also the mimic image, I have no idea if Bertha is about to strengthen or weaken.

I'm not sure if an EWRC is wrapping up, which would eventually lead to further intensification, or if dry air is continuing to erode the core of the storm.
as far as dry air is concerned, it looks to me like bertha is doing alright...
1013. philliesrock 7:04 PM EST on July 10,

Next thing we know it'll steer its way towards NYC...lol


Please...no...lol. I know it's bound to happen somebody but a hurricane is the last thing we need over here.
Evening Folks......Been out since yesterday and "Bertha" is still around, and, "models" predicting some development several days away...Guess nothing has changed since yesterday (With the exception of Bertha still inching nearer to Bermuda)......
the blog is actually pretty active today the past 2 days it only reached to 28 and 26 pages, when bertha had the possibility of going west i think the blog had close to 40 pages
1020. i think the earlier "trolling" had at least some part in keeping posts down...just my opinion, though.
another wobble west, another wobble closer to bermuda... this thing JUST NEEDS TO TURN ALREADY!!!!
sry caps lock
1026. msphar
Poor Chris! a split persona in death. Come the ressurection, how does that work ? He's sure to be "exploring" up a storm !


CIMSS/NESDIS-USAF/NRL AMSU TC Intensity Estimation:
HURRICANE BERTHA
Thursday 10jul08 Time: 2053 UTC
Latitude: 27.35 Longitude: -60.34
Storm position corresponds to AMSU-A FOV 24 [130]
-----------------------------------------------------------------
| Estimated MSLP: 962 hPa
| Estimated Maximum Sustained Wind: 92 kts
| Estimate Confidence: Good ( +/- 8mb +/- 9kts )

-----------------------------------------------------------------
Storm is sub-sampled: Bias correction applied is -6 hPa
Channel 8 (~150 hPa) Tb Anomaly: 2.50
Channel 7 (~250 hPa) Tb Anomaly: 3.13
RMW: 19 km
RMW Source is: IR
Environmental Pressure: 1014 (TPC)
Satellite: NOAA-16
ATCF data for Month: 07 Day: 10 Time (UTC): 1800

apparent strengthening from latest AMSU microwave imagery
Christopher Columbur,,his spanish name when he came to the caribbean and found this lands, Cristobal Colón.
1029. franck
Certainly.
1030. franck
Certainly about Bertha strengthening.
Earlier someone asked for the 60 hour loop. Here's the best link I have :) If anyone has a superior one, please send the link my way. Thanks!Link
Historians and anthropological science as well are interested in bones. Back to the tropics when do the say Cristobal will develop?
1033. wasn't Hurakan the Mayan god of storms?
whats with this sharp turn to the west, bertha does this every night is this just another jog or a change in direction?
"Christobal" is a little too close to "Crystal Ball" for me so please; try to refrain from baseless "long term" predictions ("I think it's going to get into the Gulf" when it hasn't even gotten past the Azores yet)on this one when it forms......Lol
1038. CJ5
Quoting presslord:
only us Catholics are so obsessed with relics of the dead...



I wouldn't consider that an accurate statement...


Visually, Bertha is looking a little ragged, compared to days of late.
1039. CJ5
It gets that way when a threat to the states become improbable..lol

If Florida or NO was still in the mix it would be impossible.
I wouldn't consider that an accurate statement... Wikipedia, the free encyclopediaHumour or humor (see spelling differences) is the tendency of particular images, stories or situations to provoke laughter and provide amusement. ...


One of Columbus's journels tells how he endured a cyclone for 7 days in the western carib.. I remember reading it got so bad he let the boat go at the mercy of the wind.
press, what's your point?
Quoting mobilehurricane:


CIMSS/NESDIS-USAF/NRL AMSU TC Intensity Estimation:
HURRICANE BERTHA
Thursday 10jul08 Time: 2053 UTC
Latitude: 27.35 Longitude: -60.34
Storm position corresponds to AMSU-A FOV 24 [130]
-----------------------------------------------------------------
| Estimated MSLP: 962 hPa
| Estimated Maximum Sustained Wind: 92 kts
| Estimate Confidence: Good ( +/- 8mb +/- 9kts )

-----------------------------------------------------------------
Storm is sub-sampled: Bias correction applied is -6 hPa
Channel 8 (~150 hPa) Tb Anomaly: 2.50
Channel 7 (~250 hPa) Tb Anomaly: 3.13
RMW: 19 km
RMW Source is: IR
Environmental Pressure: 1014 (TPC)
Satellite: NOAA-16
ATCF data for Month: 07 Day: 10 Time (UTC): 1800

apparent strengthening from latest AMSU microwave imagery



where did you get that from can i have a link to it
LOL...just kiddin' with ya! :)
1045. CJ5
Sorry, presslord, I read US (the states) not "us" originally...
pearland...I'm Catholic....I'm not allowed to have a point.....
all is well....
press, HAHAHA! i like you the more i talk to you!
1034.
Yes Hurakan was the Mayan God of Storms and when the Spañiards reached the Yucatan Peninsula they adopted this word for every time some nasty weather (strong rain and wind with flooding and storm surge)arrived during summer and fall.
Mexican geography and social sciences class working. LOL
I may be wrong on my history...but didn't christopher columbus and his men slaughter the inhabitants of the lands he "discorverd"?
doesn't the term "El Caribe" refer to a similar deity in another culture? (i might be wrong on this one...memory is fuzzy!!! LOL)
tazmanian: here is the Link for the text...you can access it by clicking the estimate in the top left corner of the page

the image can be found here Link
If you ever get a chance check out the movie Columbus its got a great cyclone set where everything he built gets blown away. It is probally just hollywood nevertheless very intense.
1051. I don't have an answer for that jaja
One of the tribes were headhunters.
alright, folks...i'm out for the night. have a very pleasant evening! (even you, presslord! LOL)
just for the record
Cristopher is the english equivalent to Cristobal, for those who had a doubt of whether it was a male/female name
good night pearlandaggie!
Michener's "Carribean" is an excellent historical novel on the region....
i found it


now when uesing that what am i looking at too se wish one is right???

is it this???

CURRENT ESTIMATE
Date (yyyymmddhh): 2008071020
SATCON (2mem): MSLP = 962 hPa MSW = 95 kt
ADT: 961 hPa 100 kt Scene: EYE
CIMSS AMSU: 962 hPa 92 kt Bias Corr: -6 (IR)
CIRA AMSU: NA hPa NA kt Tmax: NA


or that???
1061. amd
it looks like ships is keeping this storm at 75 kts.

Bertha has not re-strengthened, at least not yet.
mtv, goodnight to you as well! thanks for the info!
Quoting Tazmanian:
i found it


now when uesing that what am i looking at too se wish one is right???

is it this???

CURRENT ESTIMATE
Date (yyyymmddhh): 2008071020
SATCON (2mem): MSLP = 962 hPa MSW = 95 kt
ADT: 961 hPa 100 kt Scene: EYE
CIMSS AMSU: 962 hPa 92 kt Bias Corr: -6 (IR)
CIRA AMSU: NA hPa NA kt Tmax: NA


or that???


the ADT is one model estimate and the AMSU is another model estimate and the strength and pressure based on that model
With the current path, weak steering, and forcast path...I hope Bertha doesn't park herself over Bermuda...
1066. pottery
Hello, all.
61mm (2.5" to you Americans !) here today. Great stuff. Hope for some sunshine in the morn., as the Lady of the Manor has some planting for me to do.
All is now quiet, on the Eastern front, until....
The EWRC looks to be about done...I would expect some strengthening with warm SSTs and 5-10 knot wind shear.
which of the three waves will be Christobal


Link
Bertha should look better in the morning.
Will Bertha beat the record of seven days as a July hurricane?
1057.

Another easy way to figure it out, the names alternate male and female...

bertha is female
christobal is therefore male
and so forth
ok
Im back
is the blog running slow tonight or just the peeps on here, seems to be lagging a bit...
How are you Taz, pottery, storm, ect...
1076. pottery
Leftovers, post 1055.
The dominant tribes were Caribs and Arawaks. None were headhunters per se, but the Arawak did eat his enemy, provided the enemy had atributes that were envied or desired. Bravery in battle, strength, etc.
The Carib was a more docile being, more into having a peaceful time, from all reports. Big into travel and navigation, they came out of the Orinoco delta, and reached as far as Puerto Rico.
There are still people in the Islands that have strong Carib geneology, but I think the Colonisers pretty well eliminated the Arawak.
I think I have all that correct, but dont quote me.
I'm happy we all know now how to determine if a storm is a male or female.....
Wow Pottery, you had enough rain to last you for the rest of the month, LOL...
8:05 TWD

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N15W 8N22W 8N30W 5N42W 8N59W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N TO 9N BETWEEN 25W AND
30W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 9N TO 11N BETWEEN 40W AND 45W
AND NEAR 7N51W. A CLUSTER OF SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION HAS MOVED OFFSHORE OF SENEGAL AND GUINEA BISSAU.
THIS CONVECTION IS OCCURRING IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT TROPICAL
WAVE JUST ABOUT TO EMERGE OFF THE AFRICAN COAST.
SA
1081. pottery
P.S.
The current Shaman of Trinidad ( keeper of the lore, medicines, songs etc) is a man I know . His name is Christo Adonis. I think that name is poetry itself !
Quoting tiggeriffic:
is the blog running slow tonight or just the peeps on here, seems to be lagging a bit...

We're listening to the Barometer Bob Show
1083. pottery
Yeah Dude. Bucket-a-drop !
pottery,

an old boss of mine...her family is from Trinidad...
The CATL Twave ''should'' interact with a mid (to upper level) level trough by the time it reaches us here in the Windward islands, by Sunday night into Monday...
This might become into our next tropical system. I think Cristobal discovered the Leewards. lol
Thanks extreme...so it looks like that's the wave the models want to develop...we'll see, though
I don't like that cone in the DR in Fl lol
The 18Z GFS had this CATL system forming fairly far south at around 10N or so and held it near that latitude before it moved it NW somewhat abruptly.
1091. pottery
Tigger, they say Trini's are like salt. You'll find some everywhere LOL
1086..i dont like your cone either..but..great image...lol...
LOL pottery
1094. pottery
Weatherman504, post 1075. Doing good here. Trust all is well with you too.

ohh yea im great sorry for my absence a few bans here and there. lol
Cristobal will visit all the places christopher colombus did lol
1097. msphar
I prefer the peace we have now to the future projection of some souless computer program especially when it is pointing at my boat.
NIMBY (boat yard)
1098. pottery
msphar. LOL. Love it !
Good evening everyone....looks like when Bertha finshes her eyewall replacement we will have a very large eye.
1100.

Its trying to become better organized with convection surrounding the CDO but the eyewall doesn't look very impressive right now.
Welcomme back 456
Pretty amazing that we will soon have 2 cape verde storms, potentially hurricanes, in the same July! Let us hope that Chris follows in big sister Bertha's footsteps.


Meanwhile, gone today hunting for my 23 crows...All fellow members of my WEST CREW 7/7/08 have you had your 23 crows? LOL.


Also today marks the anniversary of Dennis's Landfall 2005.
ITCZ is pretty far north, averaging 10N. There is impressive inverted v perturbation (tropical wave) in the Central Atlantic and other African easterly wave exiting Africa. This one has a decent structure similar to Bertha. I am not sure if this is the wave the models are picking up but its the closest candidate to become invest 94L due its decent nature.



1105.

I agree...that wave emerging off the African coast is in a favorable environment so it needs to be watched.
Quoting TheWeatherMan504:
Welcomme back 456


Thank you
The eastern half of Bertha's eyewall continues to look better than the western half...which is fairly weak right now.
1110. njdevil
BAMM has changed its mind and now has Bertha leaving on a curve, in an orderly fashion.
msphar...Does your insurance carrier not require you to keep her above a certain lattitude during season? My has to stay above Jax....
I wonder why the 18Z GFS run suddenly takes this CATL system from a low latitude (around 10N), and then it heads NW towards the Northern islands. Any thoughts?
that wave needs to be watch dos it have a low or SFC low yet with it???
Cirriform clouds being reported in Bermuda in the last hour.

Clouds Few at 2800 feet
Broken at 25000 feet
1115. hahaguy
1112.

hmm sounds like what frances did.
00Z SHIPS run shows favorable wind shear throughout the entire 120 hour period but with sufficiently warm SSTs through 72 hours.
we could have 94L by AM
well 236 that dos not sould to good
1113. Tazmanian 10:05 PM AST on July 10, 2008
that wave needs to be watch dos it have a low or SFC low yet with it???


satellite imagery suggest mid-level turning and this is supported by 500 mb vorticity.

surface obs through 18 UTC showed a weak surface low supported by little on 850 or 925 hpa vorticity.
Quoting Tazmanian:
that wave needs to be watch dos it have a low or SFC low yet with it???


you couldnt tell because METROSAT is too crummy with the 6 hour updates you will have to wait until it gets in the central atlantic to get a good idea on what its doing unlees the NHC does something with it beforehand.
What perplexes me is that the SHIPS shows these favorable conditions through 72 hours but yet shows virtually no strengthening.
Quoting TheWeatherMan504:
Quoting Tazmanian:
that wave needs to be watch dos it have a low or SFC low yet with it???


you couldnt tell because METROSAT is too crummy with the 6 hour updates you will have to wait until it gets in the central atlantic to get a good idea on what its doing unlees the NHC does something with it.


30-minute updates
EATL wave:

NHC will likely tag it as an Invest sometime the Day after Tomorrow, or Tomorrow. a lot of the Models are forecasting development from this wave.
Missed some good discussion last night about SSTS and the UNISYS & NASA models that show Bertha sitting there for 48 hours and a high SST and low shear zone for the African blobbage.
Wow, another potential far eastern storm like Bertha, and it's only the second week of July? Why do I get the feeling this season may be one for the record books?
Quoting studjuderson:
tropical activitu next week will increase significantly as the thunderstorm at the intertropical convergence zone increase. In addition, wind shear is abnormally low this year. Bertha is almost done with its eye replacement cycle. Further strengthening tonight is possible.


Link

Great blog!
Agree with you Koritheman!
1127.

Get this...the 12Z ECMWF showed three systems next week. Now I want to see more persistence before I buy into three storms but the EATL storm the models have been predicting looks like a good possibility now.
This season was forecast to be an active hurricane season, not in the Western Atlantic like 2005 but the cape verde season. And has really manifested with Bertha. 90% of the waves that emerge so far either had impressive mid-level circulations, surface lows or both.
Thank you PhilliesRock!
1134. amd
the current satellite image of this storm is pretty cool.

The convection is shaped like PacMan around the former eye, and it looks like it is about to eat the eye. I don't think I have ever seen that before.

Also, It does look like the EWRC will be done soon.

Link
Agreed Kori (if this system does form next week)...I don't want to see what will happen in August and September!
thanks 456
Get this...the 12Z ECMWF showed three systems next week. Now I want to see more persistence before I buy into three storms but the EATL storm the models have been predicting looks like a good possibility now.

Three systems in the Atlantic during July would be a major surprise. Then again, this season is full of surprises. Like you though, I'd like to see some more model agreement/persistence before I believe we'll see three systems in the Atlantic simultaneously. If it was the heart of the season, this prediction would be more believable, but it's not even close.

If the three system thing verifies though, that would remind us of an all too familiar July that wasn't too long ago...

Either way though, I would give the CATL wave the models are developing a 60% chance to develop into a tropical depression within the next few days.
Agreed Kori (if this system does form next week)...I don't want to see what will happen in August and September!

In August and September, I'm expecting something like 2004 or 1989, with a flurry of Cape Verde storms that go on to become major hurricanes. Whether or not they threaten land of course, is impossible to know.
Gale force winds extend outward pretty far.

1137.

I agree with everything you said lol...There is a bit of model agreement (lack of much consistency though) for a tropical depression/storm to form off the coast of North Carolina. This is shown by the UKMET/ECMWF/CMC
1130. extreme236 7:19 PM PDT on July 10, 2008
1127.

Get this...the 12Z ECMWF showed three systems next week. Now I want to see more persistence before I buy into three storms but the EATL storm the models have been predicting looks like a good possibility now




236 where dos the 12Z ECMWF take the three systems ???? and how storng???
Good Point 456 the only reson they didnt survive was shear and dry air.
Quoting stormdude77:
Agreed Kori (if this system does form next week)...I don't want to see what will happen in August and September!


I wouldn't be surprised if we see this:



1139. Weather456 2:25 AM GMT on July 11, 2008

Yikes thets a big wind field.
1141.

I didn't look at the whole run...just the pic Drak showed...the Caribbean and Carolina system didn't look too strong but the CATL system looked like perhaps a hurricane. Its hard to say based upon a model that isn't meant for intensity forecasts.
1146. h6
1131. Weather456
From NHC's 2008 Atlantic Hurricane Outlook Summary:
The Climate Prediction Center’s 2008 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook calls a 90% probability of a near-normal or above-normal hurricane season. An above-normal season is most likely (65% chance), but there is also a 25% chance of a near-normal season, and a 10% chance of a below-normal season.
An ACE range 100%-210% of the median.

So it was forecast to be very likely well above average.
I agree with everything you said lol...There is a bit of model agreement (lack of much consistency though) for a tropical depression/storm to form off the coast of North Carolina. This is shown by the UKMET/ECMWF/CMC

Consistency or not, this seems to be fairly believable, given that a lot of our July storms typically develop in the Gulf of Mexico, central and western Carribean, and off the East Coast of the United States. Wouldn't surprise me to see a Beryl type storm develop from a stalled front off the SC/NC coast.
1143.

Isn't that system behind the third tropical cyclone the pre-cursor to what became Tropical Storm Karen?
I wouldn't be surprised if we see this:

I concur, STL. I myself have had the thought that we might see that.
thanks 236


hi STL
The TPC discussion out-right said that we need to watch the waves that emerge off Africa since they should head westward into a favorable environment and to monitor the NHC Outlooks.
236 can we have a link to the TPC discussion thanks
we usualy have 3 storms at a time once a year.
Here we see the models and the overview syntoptic situation

Isn't that system behind the third tropical cyclone the pre-cursor to what became Tropical Storm Karen?

We had a Karen in 1998? News to me. >_>
1153.

Oh I don't have a link to it at the moment...I just read it off the blog a couple pages back earlier.
1156.

The top image that STL posted was from 1995...
Never seen this before:

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 11 JUL 2008 Time : 014500 UTC
Lat : 27:35:27 N Lon : 60:59:34 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.0 / 969.0mb/ 90.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
4.7 4.5 4.5

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : -1.0mb

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 58 km

Center Temp : -5.4C Cloud Region Temp : -50.9C

Scene Type : LARGE EYE

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

456 i just posted something from that site......but when you posted yours it changed mine......i wonder why it does that cause this is not the first time this has happened
Quoting KoritheMan:
I wouldn't be surprised if we see this:

I concur, STL. I myself have had the thought that we might see that.


It'd be crazy though if we had tropical waves developing one after another like an assembly line. Hopefully if the season is that active most of the storms recurve, not that Bertha is any indicator of what the general track will be.
Quoting KoritheMan:
Isn't that system behind the third tropical cyclone the pre-cursor to what became Tropical Storm Karen?

We had a Karen in 2004? News to me. >_>


Non of those photo's are 2004, all before.
1995 and 1998
1155. Weather456 2:36 AM GMT on July 11, 2008 Hide this comment.
Here we see the models and the overview syntoptic situation


Could I get a link to that please :)
Quoting extreme236:
1143.

Isn't that system behind the third tropical cyclone the pre-cursor to what became Tropical Storm Karen?


No in 2004 The K storm was Karl.
Speaking from the Carolina Part of the Equation; was is going on here?
1160. TampaSpin 10:38 PM AST on July 10, 2008
456 i just posted something from that site......but when you posted yours it changed mine......i wonder why it does that cause this is not the first time this has happened


It happens becuz different people view different products but the same web address. So as someone generates a new image it changes.

Upload it when u capture it.

I uploaded mines to photobucket.
1164.

I was referring to the top pic STL posted...
1163...

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/#

Click on the hurricane bertha icon on the top map.
STL,
The ironic thing is in both those pics a system is hitting or about to hit FL? Coincidence?
1162.

Yea they are from 1995 and 1998.
Quoting MichaelSTL:
Quoting KoritheMan:
I wouldn't be surprised if we see this:

I concur, STL. I myself have had the thought that we might see that.


It'd be crazy though if we had tropical waves developing one after another like an assembly line. Hopefully if the season is that active most of the storms recurve, not that Bertha is any indicator of what the general track will be.


Well, its Early July and theres a Cape Verde Hurricane out in the Atlantic, and all of the Invests this year that are actually from the Atlantic (Arthur formed from the remains of Alma.) Were all Cape Verde Originated. This year is a Cape Verde Year.
The top image that STL posted was from 1995...

Oh, damn. I didn't even NOTICE the top image. My bad, dude. You're right. It's from 95. >_<

It'd be crazy though if we had tropical waves developing one after another like an assembly line. Hopefully if the season is that active most of the storms recurve, not that Bertha is any indicator of what the general track will be.

Crazy is an understatement, but the African wave train has been quite active this year, and so I think it's likely we'll have 3 to 4 storms going at once, all from tropical waves, at one point in the season. And yeah, let's hope they all recurve, but I don't think it's really all that likely. For one, it's impossible to tell the steering currents with any degree of accuracy a few days out, much less a few months out. Also, there's a reason why there haven't been very many July tropical cyclones strike the CONUS when they form by the CV Islands or in the far eastern Atlantic Ocean. Climatology doesn't favor it, due to the many troughs of low pressure moving off the east coast. I think we'll see a few CONUS hits later in the season.
Non of those photo's are 2004, all before.

I corrected 2004 and put 1998 long before you said that, thank you very much. Give me some credit! >_>
ok 236
1171.

Well 91L and 93L both formed near the Antilles...which aren't considered CV systems. Otherwise one could argue all systems that from twaves are CV originated or CV systems. From my understanding, a CV storm is a storm that forms within 700 miles of the Cape Verde Islands.
Thanks for the link 456.
1177. h6
New advisory is out.
I think this is interesting to note...Bertha's ACE so far is higher than all of the storms in 2007 except Dean and Felix.
I think this is interesting to note...Bertha's ACE so far is higher than all of the storms in 2007 except Dean and Felix.

So you've noticed it too, huh? I have a feeling this year has already broken the trend of short-lived storms that last 48 hours and then die.
Quoting sporteguy03:
STL,
The ironic thing is in both those pics a system is hitting or about to hit FL? Coincidence?


Maybe not; Florida gets hit just about every year by at least a tropical storm. Also, for the most part, those two years were not so bad for the CONUS, when compared to other areas (Caribbean and Central America), though much more so than the last couple years (I doubt that we will see another 2004/2005 for the U.S. anyway).
Good Evening Everyone,

Just got in from work but is the models still forecasting a storm off of the Carolina coast and if so where does the models have it going?
Quoting Weather456:
1163...

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/#

Click on the hurricane bertha icon on the top map.


Thank you.. I like this one... bookmarked.
True Kori...the only storm last year that lasted a week was Dean...
Just got in from work but is the models still forecasting a storm off of the Carolina coast and if so where does the models have it going?

Last I heard they were, although I can't confirm this myself since I haven't bothered to look at the models at all today. I don't know about the track of said system, either.
Quoting stormdude77:
True Kori...the only storm last year that lasted a week was Dean...


Pathetic huh?
What causes more devastation a hurricane or a tornado and why?
Kori! Long time no talk..Anyway, Bertha new track looks pretty impressive to me..

Well I am looking for some new feature bloggers.

Anybody want to be one? What about you Kori?
Quoting KoritheMan:
I think this is interesting to note...Bertha's ACE so far is higher than all of the storms in 2007 except Dean and Felix.

So you've noticed it too, huh? I have a feeling this year has already broken the trend of short-lived storms that last 48 hours and then die.


It is even possible that we could have a higher ACE per storm than 2005 (which wasn't actually very high, more due to the number, it had more than twice as many storms are the previous record ACE season) if most of them are like Bertha; however, there will likely be a few more storms like Arthur.
Quoting TampaMishy:
What causes more devastation a hurricane or a tornado and why?


Tornados are local and hurricanes are wide spread however a Large Cat 5 vs an F-5 i would say a Cat 5 would do more damage.
1190 thank you
...Bertha begins to stall out now!!! and a possibility of her getting trapped under the building high in 24-48hrs means that there is a remote chance of her eventually going west towards the U.S. east coast if she gets pushed south of the ridge after she stalls...
Quoting TampaMishy:
What causes more devastation a hurricane or a tornado and why?


A tornado causes more intense damage (an F3 tornado is about equal to a Cat 5; as an aside, the (Enhanced) Fujita Scale is often used to assess hurricane damage) but hurricanes cause more widespread damage (the former are also deadlier on average because of this, also because of less warning time). Most hurricanes of course cause most of their damage and fatalities from water (flooding, storms surge).
I think the only reason Bertha isn't organizing. it's not getting all of it's convection near the center maybe if it improves overnight it can strengthen

night all
Quoting TheWeatherMan504:
Quoting stormdude77:
True Kori...the only storm last year that lasted a week was Dean...


Pathetic huh?


It depends how you look at it...short lived storms was a reief for some people. The thing about last year though, most of the storms either formed to near land (Barry, Humberto and Lorenzo), or were taken care of by shear (Malissa, Karen and Ingrid)...
1193 thank you also. I was curious
What causes more devastation a hurricane or a tornado and why?
It's important to think of scale. A tornado,say F3-F5 will have tremendous winds that may cause terrible damage for a couple of miles. A hurricane, as you know is much larger may possess damaging winds to hundreds of square miles and is usually accompanied by a storm surge which can be devastating in itself.
So imho, a hurricane will cause much more devastation.
Quoting KoritheMan:
We had a Karen in 1998? News to me. >_>

The naked remains of Karen have been lurking in the ATL since the 19th century, or so it's told...
The NHC discussion was very nicely detailed. It went over how the EWRC was in essence nearly complete. I disagree with their forecast of no change in strength. Wind shear is forecast to be favorable and SSTs warm through 72 hours...this would to me have been enough to call for maybe 80-85 knots or so for forecast peak...however I do understand that the NHC just can't defy all the objective guidance.
1200. JRRP
02:45 UTC infrared image shows an eyewall is becoming better established and the cloud tops associated with the eyewall are becoming cooler as well. Should be interesting to see how Bertha looks in the morning. Good night all!
1202. pottery
Post 1198
Spooky stuff , man.
Tornadoes cause more extreme damage (if they are at the top of the fujita scale), but highly localized, while hurricanes cause widespread damage, and more property loss. Plus tornadoes don't come with a storm surge, which causes alot of the coastal damage in canes, at last in terms of $$.
My pardon, MichaelSTL,I didn't see that you had already answered
poor nhc they have to right 32
Advisory on BERTHA wish is the most Advisory so far this season



so whats take a poll what the most Advisory you think the nhc will right on this storm


A 35

B 40

C 50
Good night, Extreme!
1202.
=D
I always wanted to catch a radar image and what it looks like from the ground. This cloud formation has a nice clear boundary both on radar and visually. Radar has to be set to composite to catch the whole thing.

Here is a gust front bearing down on South Bend.



Here is what it looks like from a location a bit S from the South Bend symbol on the radar looking west. The time lapse is running a bit faster than the radar loop.



TOP
so whats take a poll what the most Advisory you think the nhc will right on this storm


A 35

B 40

C 50


They had to write 30 for Boris, so it's not really a surprise. 30+ advisories for numerous storms happens quite a lot during hurricane season.

As for your poll, I'll answer C, since it is the closest to my answer, which is 45.
Taz i would say 40-50 advisorys.
1211. pottery
Taz, I go with B.
1050. GeoffreyWPB 8:55 PM EDT on July 10, 2008
I may be wrong on my history...but didn't christopher columbus and his men slaughter the inhabitants of the lands he "discorverd"?


It was more like bad hygiene that killed the natives. The poor indigeneous islanders may have survived the enslavement as gold miners under which they found themselves, but they couldn't fight off the European diseases. The Arawaks (Tainos / Lucayans) were practically wiped out.

The Caribs (from which the name Caribbean is taken) fared better because they were more warlike and territorial by nature, and so fought off the Europeans for as long as possible. AFAIK, there are still 100% Carib persons living on Dominica in the Lesser Antilles. Someone from that part of the Caribbean can confirm that better than I, however.
Quoting stormdude77:
It depends how you look at it...short lived storms was a reief for some people. The thing about last year though, most of the storms either formed to near land (Barry, Humberto and Lorenzo), or were taken care of by shear (Malissa, Karen and Ingrid)...


I kind of doubt that; I would rather have ample warning than wake up to a hurricane, when the forecast the evening before was for a weak tropical storm at best. Same for a storm that becomes a Cat 5 in a couple days, as opposed to one that can be seen a week out. Some of the major storms in 2005 weren't terribly long-lived either (2005 in fact appeared to be the first of three years with decreasing ACE and/or lifetime per storm; the sheer number plus quite a few very intense systems made up for it).
I agree with Koritheman. I think 45-47
Off tonight good night kori, tazz, pottery, every one! Tomorrow lets see what does fate gives Bertha.
1215. centex
Bertha is not a storm NHC messed up on. While this blog considered other options, many viable, the NHC pretty much was the most liable source of info, including JM who did not differ.
I notice that no matter how far the little black line may waver east or west, Bermuda is still in that white cone. Guess it's nailbiting time for Bermudans this weekend.
What about you Kori?

I don't care about being a featured blogger, honestly. I'm content with the occasional blog here and there. I'm actually too lazy to really dedicate myself to something like being a featured blogger.

Kori, its Zap from teh boards :)

Think the Bertha track is a sign of things to come, track wise for the Cape Verde season? Or will the steering currents change by say August?


So you finally got around to registering, eh Zappa? Nice. It's too bad Star isn't here to join in.

I don't think Bertha is an indication of the steering. It's more or less an indication of a very active Cape Verde season (something like 1989 and 2004 is probably going to occur this year). Trackwise, I think it's set up to look more like 2004, based on what I've read here during the past several months.
kori u got mail
1197 thank you also
kori u got mail

I didn't get it. Resend, please.
1221. centex
I would also say this blog was better at predicting the formation of Berhta than NHC and it's potential.
Quoting Tazmanian:
poor nhc they have to right 32
Advisory on BERTHA wish is the most Advisory so far this season



so whats take a poll what the most Advisory you think the nhc will right on this storm


A 35

B 40

C 50


Probably will be closest to 50; they are already at 32 and Bertha isn't going to dissipate soon; 40 advisories would be 2 more days at 4 per day.
I guess we arent haveing the dooms-day scenario ACCUWEATHER predicted.
Before I head off to bed, I am extending a second (and likely final :o) invitation to view my blog on the topic "NHC: The Tropical Atlantic's Newer Crystal Ball?"

As I said earlier, I'm trying to post a little more on blog this season, but I am definitely not competing with the "hi-tech" crew.

Feel free to view.

Good night, all!

Quoting BahaHurican:

It was more
like bad hygiene that killed the natives.

You should read the accounts of Cortes' invasion of Mexico. It ain't pretty, and hygiene had nothing to do with it.
I would also say this blog was better at predicting the formation of Berhta than NHC and it's potential.

If there's one thing you can say about this place, it's that no storm is going unnoticed.
Columbus never conquered anything. He was an explorer and trader. He never even knew he found a new land, he died thinking he had gone to India and the East Indies. That is not to say he didnt fight the Indians sometimes. Probably for food and water more than anything else. And yes the diseases killed off the vast majority of the Indians in the Americas.
Baha, I've already read your blog earlier this morning, I just didn't leave a comment because I was very tired (had an hour of sleep XD). It was an excellent blog though in all honesty, and I really enjoyed it. The NHC has definitely gotten more accurate over the years.
jus did kori
Quoting TheWeatherMan504:
I guess we arent haveing the dooms-day scenario ACCUWEATHER predicted.


You mean ''Inaccuweather'' right?
Image and video hosting by TinyPic" alt="" />
looks like our african waves has emerged..not looking so well right now!

1233. centex
If there's one thing you can say about this place, it's that no storm is going unnoticed

I think it's more than wishing every blob to form but in this case the blog looked at all the factors and decided the experts were making too much of time of year.
If the NOGAPS is correct, Bertha will still be around for at least 5 more days (that is at least 20 more advisories, 50 total), as a very large and intense system:



Reminds me of how the CMC used to overdevelop many storms, forecast or existing (used to because it no longer seems to have the problem, the GFS actually has been showing storms first, either because they upgraded it (CMC) or because of the more favorable environment in the Atlantic this year).
Don't worry Junior...we WILL see development off Africa in the next few days. Cristobal will be Bertha's little brother...but further south.

I also give a 50% chance for development off the Carolina coast.

As for the season, I think we will see an 2004 type year with enhanced numbers.


Tampa I like that girl in your avatar pic. Who is she?
Also, for the record, it was a lack of immunity to European diseases that killed off millions of natives, not hygiene. It's hard for a culture to quickly develop immunity to brand new pathogens...it takes generations.

And now, back to the weather. We are getting a nice, much-needed, soaking rain in central NC, which is a relief after 6 straight days of severe storms.
1238. centex
Is there some place we can analize how the models adjusted programming from year to year. Being IT I know they are not running 2 or 3 year old code.
looks like our african waves has emerged..not looking so well right now!

You don't just look at the convection; you have to look at the 850 mb winds, the 850 mb vorticity, wind shifts, etc. All of that goes in to determining the structure of a tropical wave. For example, a tropical wave could be devoid of any deep convection due to strong upper-level winds, but the wave axis itself would remain intact and move westward.

I think it's more than wishing every blob to form but in this case the blog looked at all the factors and decided the experts were making too much of time of year.

I don't see where everybody wishes every blob to form. But yeah, the experts relied way too heavily upon climatology with Bertha. I myself don't have any respect for climatology, and I just base my predictions off what is there.

Kori, got AIM yet?

Yes. My AIM name is the same as my name on here. I have a closed list though, so you'll have to tell me your AIM name (either out in the open on this blog or through WU mail; the latter would probably be better if you didn't want people you don't know talking to you) so I can add you.
The models have moved to the east of Bermuda...they were further west earlier. So that's better! see ya.
Good night all...see everyone tomorrow...
Bertha is heading for Cat. 2 or higher
Good night, stormdude77.
1225. FranAteMyRoof96 11:22 PM EDT on July 10, 2008

Columbus' interations with natives of the Americas was basically limited to the islands. Cortez was a whole different story; he was a "real" Spaniard, not an imported Italian like Columbus.


1227. bradbarry27 11:23 PM EDT on July 10, 2008

Columbus was actually governor of Hispaniola for a while. He had quite a bit to do with enslavement of native populations in the Greater Antilles and The Bahamas.

A lot of this information, and much better explained than I can do it on my way to bed, can be found at numerous excellent online sites. Even Wikipedia can give a half-way decent overview, but Google can be your friend for this kind of thing. I use it a lot when somebody mentions a topic that is really unrelated to tropical wx but which piques my interest.

I'm really gone, ya'll. See u in the a. m.!
Later, Baha.
1236..thanx

maybe it will be another hugo..
well everyone, I just updated my blog

I do believe that by the next 4 satellite images that wave will look a little better.
1248. centex
The all the early interest in another early CV storm the next one will popup in w carib, w atl or gulf with little notice.
maybe it will be another hugo..

I don't think you'd enjoy a Hugo as much as you think you would. Just to put this into perspective, Hugo was a Category 4 when it hit South Carolina. Sustained winds were 135 mph, with gusts probably 165 to 170 mph. It only takes 200 mph winds to completely obliterate a building, and less than that to demolish poorly constructed buildings.

I went through Andrew in 1992, and that storm was only a Category 1 by the time it hit me. Yet, there was tin hitting the roof of my house, and there were also several tornadoes (I don't think they touched down, but you could hear them whistling).

I also went through Katrina in 2005, and it too only produced Category 1 hurricane conditions in my area, which was about 65 miles west of New Orleans. The peak wind gust was probably only around 90 mph with Katrina, and yet the house felt like it was going to collapse during the storm. In fact, one time I felt a significant increase in pressure in the living room during the storm, which scared the hell outta me.

If you live close to the coast on South Carolina, if a major hurricane like Hugo were to hit SC, you'd feel the worst of it, since it wouldn't have time to weaken before reaching your locale. Just remember what I said a Category 1 storm can do, and then really think about if you would enjoy a Hugo strength storm.
Tampa....you have mail
I wonder if Bertha will stall out in the Atlantic once she passes Bermuda. Storms can do some tricky maneuvers these days.One things for sure the U.S. can't dodge every storm that comes across the Atlantic.
I live only 30 minutes from the SC Coast were hugo made landfall..
The eyewall replacement cycle is almost complete then she explodes because she is over the warmest waters yet.....watch.
One things for sure the U.S. can't dodge every storm that comes across the Atlantic.

Nope. It wasn't climatologically favored for Bertha to impact the CONUS anyway, since it developed so far east. But eventually, the CONUS will be a hit this year, and I'm willing to bet this may be the year we see another major hurricane in the U.S.
1255. AndyN
I noticed today that the conditions have returned to ENSO Neutral and predicted to stay that way until Northern Hemisphere Winter 2009.
What, if any, effect will this have on this Hurricane season?
I'm out all. I'll be back later. Maybe tonight, maybe tommorow.
1251. catwomen 11:53 PM EDT on July 10, 2008

Catwomen check out my blog, i talk about that possibility.......
1258. JLPR
Oh well I was not alive when Hugo hit PR =P
I have only lived through one cane
I'M WONDERING HOW LONG THE NHC IS GOING TO WAIT to issue any watches or warnings???, it seems like bermuda should start to feel some effects by tom. night with bertha's large wind field and waves building on bermuda's south shore up to 20'..
1254. KoritheMan 12:01 AM EDT on July 11, 2008 I'm willing to bet this may be the year we see another major hurricane in the U.S.


I hopes its not New Orleans or Mississippi. I feel so bad for those people. They lost everything to Hurricane Katrina. Well I just hope people don't write off the season too soon. We're not out of the woods by far. Bertha should be a wake up call for anyone in the U.S.
Yeah this hurricane season is definately not over yet just since Bertha and them are over.
why do i have a feeling im going to wake up in the morning and see bertha have a gigantic eye...
good nite everyone peace out....
yea......shes going to have a huge eye soon...and once that huge eyewall gets stronger...it will tighten and start shrinking...she might be very powerful tommorrow...
Typhon Amber undergoing an eyewall replacement cycle:



Look familiar?



Yeah, Bertha should start showing some strength tomorrow.
Quoting stillwaiting:
I'M WONDERING HOW LONG THE NHC IS GOING TO WAIT to issue any watches or warnings???, it seems like bermuda should start to feel some effects by tom. night with bertha's large wind field and waves building on bermuda's south shore up to 20'..


Well, you know, since the NHC is the National Hurricane Center of the United States, and since Bermuda is a dependency of the United Kingdom, I don't think it's within the mandate of the NHC to be issuing warnings to Bermuda. That should be up to the responsible authorities of the UK. I expect they're in touch with the NHC, and I expect they're on the case, but there is a matter of jurisdiction.
for anybody that is on here..

visit my blog..

1268. JLPR
umm the 00z GFS is looking bad =S
junior meteorologist, Very well documented information in your ,blog and very well explained. Congratulations ! I WILL BE WATCHING THOSE WAVES, SINCE I LIVE IN THE ISLAND OF PUERTO RICO.
jLPR- lOOKING BAD FOR US IN PUERTO RICO.
1272. RyanFSU
00Z GFS in 7 days can't get Bertha much further than 40N, but does manage to power up to at least Category 3-4 strength, with a possible Fujiwara interaction with expectant Cristobal. While this would be a cool result academically, the threat to Bermuda is still up in the air.

GFS Global 925 hPa Wind Animation

1273. JLPR
it seems to come very very close to the northern islands then it heads a little north of the Bahamas, making a landfall in North Carolina and moving up the east coast
GFS LOOP
1274. JLPR
yep HurakanPR this Cape Verde systems so early in the season makes me nervous of what could happen in August-September =S
1276. JLPR
no problem =P
1277. vortfix
I'll be posting RECON reports later this afternoon on my blog.

Bertha is still a threat to land.....hence the flight.
1278. JLPR
if the GFS is right I may have a Cristobal coming for a visit in a week =O
JLPR ..Agree with you a 100%, is not common for us in the island to be threaten by CV storms so early. Bertha July8,1996, I believe was the last one. Hay que esta atentos, gracias por su valiosa informacion
1280. JLPR
No problem =) and yes its weird normally this happens in September not July! =O

Esperemos que podamos celebrar el aniversario de Georges sin ningún sistema tropical nuevo =).
1282. JLPR
oh and for English speaking bloggers :
I hope we can celebrate Georges's anniversary without a new storm =).
1283. JLPR
good night JFV =)
Quoting HurakanPR:
junior meteorologist, Very well documented information in your ,blog and very well explained. Congratulations ! I WILL BE WATCHING THOSE WAVES, SINCE I LIVE IN THE ISLAND OF PUERTO RICO.


Thanks!
JLPR- Yes lets cross our fingers, nobody needs that, but appears to be a very active CV season.
1286. JLPR
yep I think we could have a few close encounters with storms this year I just hope the canes stay away =)
JLPR and the rest of yall if you like you can be a feature blogger on my site, or we can go blog on there.


Also I just took a look at the new gfs model run..

looks pretty impressive to me.

1288. njdevil
Quoting RyanFSU:
00Z GFS in 7 days can't get Bertha much further than 40N, but does manage to power up to at least Category 3-4 strength, with a possible Fujiwara interaction with expectant Cristobal. While this would be a cool result academically, the threat to Bermuda is still up in the air.

GFS Global 925 hPa Wind Animation



LOL, that hurricane high-five looks like a good day in the Southern Ocean. Down there, it's total insanity during that run.
1289. JLPR
anyone still here? =P lol
1290. vortfix
PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
309 AM EDT THU JUL 10 2008
VALID 12Z MON JUL 14 2008 - 12Z THU JUL 17 2008

THE WESTERN ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO BE THE WILDCARD DURING THE
MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD...WITH WHAT APPEARS TO BE THE EQUIVALENT OF AN
ATMOSPHERIC TRAFFIC JAM DEVELOPING THERE...POSSIBLY INVOLVING
BERTHA. THE GFS AND UKMET SHOW MORE AMPLITUDE TO THE TROUGH
DIGGING INTO THE NORTHEAST...ENOUGH TO KICK BERTHA THROUGH THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES BY THE BEGINNING OF DAY 6. THE ECMWF AND GEM
GLOBAL...ALONG WITH THE 12Z/09 ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN...BLOCK BERTHAS
EXIT TO THE NORTH...AND INDICATE AN EVENTUAL FUJIWARA EFFECT WITH
THE MID LEVEL WEAKNESS THAT DEVELOPS OFF THE EAST COAST OF THE
UNITED STATES AROUND DAY 3. BEGAN TO SUGGEST SUCH AN INTERACTION
YESTERDAY ON THE FIRST SET OF PRELIMINARY MEDIUM RANGE
GRAPHICS...AND WITH A CONTINUED SHIFT OF MODEL CONSENSUS CLOSER TO
THIS SCENARIO...WILL FOLLOW SUIT WITH THE NEW BATCH OF PRELIMINARY
FRONTS AND PRESSURES FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT
SOME ENERGY TO CUT ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...BUT NOT ENOUGH
TO TAKE A SIGNIFICANT BITE OUT OF THE HEAT OVER THE INTERIOR.
THERE WILL PROBABLY BE ENOUGH WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE DEEP LEVEL
FLOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST TO DIRECT THE MONSOONAL ENERGY TO THE EAST
OF ITS MEAN CLIMATOLOGICAL AXIS.


CISCO






EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
223 PM EDT THU JUL 10 2008
WRN AND NRN ATLC DIFFERENCES OCCUR THIS PERIOD AFFECTING THE PATH
OF HURRICANE BERTHA AND ITS TRANSFORMATION TO A BAROCLINIC STORM.
NEARLY ALL GUIDANCE TAKES BERTHA NWD ALONG OR JUST WEST OF 60W
WITH 00Z GFS/GFDL/HWRF/12Z CMC ALL FASTER AND A SOMEWHAT PREFERRED
SOLUTION BY NHC/TPC. ECMWF AND CMC/ NEW 12Z GFS COMPLICATE MATTERS
EITHER BY DEVELOPING A LARGE DEEP CUT OFF LOW IN THE NE ATLC THAT
RETROGRADES WWD OR JUST LEAVING BERTHA WITH A VERY SLOW NWD TRACK
AS PER 12Z GFS. THE NE ATLC CUTOFF SOLUTIONS APPEAR TO BE
OVERDONE. MAIN ATLC RESULT IS A MUCH SLOWER PROGRESSION OF BERTHA
WITH 12Z GFS/00Z ECMWF AND 00Z CMC. ITS ONLY AFFECT OVER CONUS AND
THE W ATLC NO MATTER WHICH SOLUTION IS RIGHT WILL BE IN THE FORM
OF ONSHORE SWELL THAT WILL AFFECT THE EAST COAST THRU AT LEAST 5
DAYS AND VERY POSSIBLY LONGER. SEE TPC/OPC DISCUSSIONS AND
ADVISORIES.

1291. JLPR
well im out
goodnight to anyone that is around and is lurking =P
I heard of supergroups now superstorms.
1293. msphar
sorry I missed you jlpr

don't like talking about possibilities in pr not until there is something to talk about.
1294. msphar
my plan for now is to fly back to
san juan then run from ensenada honda to jobos
1295. JLPR
ah lol you almost missed me lol I didnt go to sleep I just changed from site lol =P

yep we have to wait for the disturbance/low/wave
to then seriously talk about probabilities =)
ill give the african wave a four percent chance to develop...climatology just dont favor east atlantic development in early july...northtxhurricane
1297. msphar
I'm in the desert of Northern Nevada so its a long trip to get back to Cieba.
1298. JLPR
well northtxhurricane we learned with Bertha that this year climatology isn't working lol

But right now I will give 0% since the disturbance/African wave doesnt really exist =P or it isnt decently strong =P
1299. msphar
that last storm was aiming at your island for a long time as it climbed out.

had me quite concerned.
Quoting northtxhurricane:
ill give the african wave a four percent chance to develop...climatology just dont favor east atlantic development in early july...northtxhurricane


BERTHA
1301. JLPR
yep =P but it wasnt meant to be lol
1302. msphar
last year they went straight through this year bertha climbed early. christobal will do ???
1303. msphar
you should go to bed soon, it already almost midnight where I live. much later for you.
1304. JLPR
I sure hope Cristobal goes north way north
lol =P
1305. JLPR
yep 2:18 am lol
1306. msphar
me too but we have time for now. a week or two. then who knows.
1307. msphar
until the storm crosses 30W I don't consider it real because I can't see it.
1308. JLPR
yep thats the problem
the then who knows lol
but it would be weird storms dont come so early here especially from the Cape Verde islands
1309. msphar
but we knew this season would start early months back.
Quoting northtxhurricane:
ill give the african wave a four percent chance to develop...climatology just dont favor east atlantic development in early july...northtxhurricane


Bertha did it
1311. msphar
the next storm will be borderline early august.
1312. JLPR
I expect this season to have a high ACE considering there could be quite a few long lasting cape Verde storms
1313. msphar
Bertha has done a lot to the ace count.
1314. JLPR
yep thats true =P
Bertha is already at 14.1
Still happy with my forecast from last week - (Bertha to swing past Bermuda a 100 or so miles to the East) - my timing was off though, as looks like a wet and windy Sunday and Monday, and I thought she would be a day earlier.
1316. msphar
the water in ensenada honda was cooler this year than last year, so far
1317. msphar
as long as its a miss who cares ?
1318. JLPR
oh well im out for real this time =P
im getting sleepy
nice talking to you msphar
take care
and goodnight =)
1319. msphar
Bertha looks to be get far ahead of its forecast track timing. NHC will have to adjust their timing soon.
as of 3:19 PM EDT on July 10, 2008


... High threat of rip currents in effect Friday...

Increasing south easterly swell from Hurricane Bertha will lead
to a high threat of rip currents Friday for all area beaches.

Rip currents are strong narrow channels of water that flow away
from the beach. If you become caught in a rip current... remain
calm. Try to swim parallel to shore. Once you are away from the
force of the current... begin to swim back to the beach. Do not
attempt to swim directly against a rip current. Even a strong
swimmer can become exhausted quickly.

The most likely time for life threatening rip currents will be a
couple of hours either side of low tide. Low tide will occur
around 830 am Friday.





1321. msphar
good night amiego
1322. JLPR
umm Bertha isnt looking too good
1323. msphar
yes dry air entrainment seems to be hitting her from within
1324. msphar
if a storm comes off africa tonight, it will take 7.5 days to reach PR at 15KT/HR
1325. msphar
and then another week or so to reach the states

Do not pull a Jeane. I hope she continues to gain latitude.
...BERTHA CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE
IN STRENGTH...

INTERESTS ON BERMUDA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF BERTHA.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE ISSUED FOR THE ISLAND LATER TODAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BERTHA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 28.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 61.7 WEST OR ABOUT 350 MILES...
565 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.

BERTHA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH OR NORTH-NORTHEAST AND A SLOWER FORWARD MOTION ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...BERTHA WILL
SLOWLY APPROACH BERMUDA ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. BERTHA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO
140 MILES...220 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 MB...28.94 INCHES.

LARGE SWELLS AND HIGH SURF ARE AFFECTING BERMUDA...AND THESE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

REPEATING THE 500 AM AST POSITION...28.0 N...61.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
1326
Now that is a "spaghetti" loop! lol
1330. njdevil
Anybody see the newest BAMM? What in the world is that?
Anyone think Bertha will follow the 2am BAMM and loop back around towards 57W & 27N?
Wouldn't be the first time one has pulled a 360 though.
Quoting njdevil:
Anybody see the newest BAMM? What in the world is that?


GFS, GFDL, and BAMM are definitely picking up some strong eastern movement tenancies in the next couple of days. They still seem to be fighting over how much northern movement we'll see though. If Bertha does indeed turn due east and then start moving back south into warmer waters, I'd say CONUS might not be completely done with Bertha.
Joint Typhoon Warning Center

Tropical Disturbance Summary (0600z 11Jul)
===========================================
An area of convection (93W) located near 20.5N 125.6E or 355 NM southeast of Taipei, Taiwan. Animated multispectral satellite imagery depicts a well-defined, partially exposed low level circulation center with weak convective banding over the south quadrant. A 2356z SSMIS Image also depicts formative banding and limited deep convection near the center. However, the environment is favorable for further development with good equatorward outflow and weak vertical wind shear. The limiting factor is currently relatively dry air north of the center evident of the total precipitable water vapor, which is inhibiting sustained deep convection over the northern half of the disturbance. Model guidance indicates an improved environment with the subtropical ridge axis building southeastward over the center and slow development.

Maximum sustained winds near the center is 12-18 knots with a minimum sea level pressure of 1006 MB. The potential for this disturbance to form into a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is FAIR.

-----------------------------------------

An area of convection (95W) located near 17.8N 134.3E or 575 NM southwest of Iwo To, Japan. Animated multispectral satellite imagery depicts a weak low level circulation center with limited, disorganized convection. An 0104z ASMU Image depicts a weak disturbance with no significant convective banding evident. Overall, the environment is marginal due to the proximity of an upper level trough and convergent flow just north of the low level circulation center plus dry air surrounding the disturbance.

Maximum sustained winds near the center is 10-15 knots with a minimum sea level pressure of 1008 MB. The potential for this disturbance to form into a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is POOR.
I had read that there were several waves that have a possibility for development in the atlantic. Any news on these?
HURRICANE BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER 33
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008
500 AM EDT FRI JUL 11 2008

THE LATEST SATELLITE MICROWAVE DATA AT 02Z INDICATED THAT BERTHA WAS
CONTINUING ITS EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE...WITH A FRAGMENT OF THE
OLD INNER EYEWALL REMAINING INSIDE THE 60 N MI WIDE OUTER EYEWALL.
INFRARED IMAGERY SINCE THEN SUGGESTS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE STRUCTURE
OF THE HURRICANE. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB
REMAIN 77 KT...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 75 KT. THE CIRRUS
OUTFLOW IS NOW FAIR TO GOOD IN ALL DIRECTIONS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 315/6. TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT BERTHA WILL TURN NORTHWARD DURING THE NEXT 36 HR AS
A MID-LEVEL RIDGE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE MOVES EASTWARD. SERIOUS
GUIDANCE DIVERGENCE OCCURS BEYOND THAT TIME. THE GFS IS NOW
CALLING FOR A SLOW EASTWARD MOTION FROM 48-120 HR...THE UKMET
CALLING FOR A SLOW NORTHWARD MOTION...AND THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN
MODELS TRAPPING BERTHA IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND STALLING IT
NEAR 31N61W. THE OTHER DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE FORECAST BERTHA TO MOVE
SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD IN RESPONSE TO WEAK RIDGING TO THE EAST
AND A SERIES OF MID/UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. SINCE THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE NOT SHOWING
MUCH RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY...THE ONLY CHANGE TO THE FORECAST TRACK
FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY WILL BE TO CALL FOR A SLOWER NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD MOTION AFTER 48 HR. THE NEW TRACK LIES ON THE LEFT
SIDE OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE FLORIDA
STATE SUPERENSEMBLE.

BERTHA IS CURRENTLY UNDER A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE...WITH THE
LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECASTING THIS TO CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST 36 HR.
BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE...THE INTENSITY
FORECAST WILL KEEP BERTHA AT 75 KT DURING THIS TIME. HOWEVER...
THERE IS STILL A CHANCE OF SOME STRENGTHENING AT THE END OF THE
EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE. STARTING IN 48-72 HR...IT IS EXPECTED
THAT BERTHA WILL SLOWLY MOVE OUT FROM UNDER THE ANTICYCLONE AND
ENCOUNTER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THIS...COMBINED WITH DECREASING SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK...SHOULD CAUSE BERTHA
TO WEAKEN. OCEAN ANALYSES FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEANOGRAPHIC AND
MARINE LABORATORY SHOW THAT THE WARM WATER UNDER BERTHA IS
RELATIVELY SHALLOW...AND THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THIS SLOW-MOVING
SYSTEM COULD UPWELL COLDER WATER UNDERNEATH IT. THIS COULD
PARTICULARLY BE A FACTOR IF BERTHA STALLS FOR 24 HR OR MORE.

THE LATEST WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES INDICATE THAT...GIVEN
UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FORECASTS OF BERTHA'S TRACK...INTENSITY...AND
SIZE...THERE REMAINS ROUGHLY A 50% CHANCE THAT WINDS OF TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WILL AFFECT BERMUDA DURING THE NEXT FIVE DAYS. A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE ISSUED FOR THE ISLAND LATER TODAY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 11/0900Z 28.0N 61.7W 75 KT
12HR VT 11/1800Z 28.8N 62.3W 75 KT
24HR VT 12/0600Z 29.7N 62.6W 75 KT
36HR VT 12/1800Z 30.4N 62.5W 75 KT
48HR VT 13/0600Z 31.3N 62.0W 70 KT
72HR VT 14/0600Z 32.5N 61.0W 65 KT
96HR VT 15/0600Z 34.0N 60.5W 60 KT
120HR VT 16/0600Z 36.0N 59.0W 55 KT

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

Slow blog tonight...
1337. IKE
00Z ECMWF aims Cristobal toward the Bahamas and ????

Link
Well everyone, I am off to bed.

I just got finish updating my blog.

Check it out!

Hopefully this blog will not be slow tomorrow!

Good Morning or Good Night. Take it however you want!

Choi
1339. IKE
00Z CMC shows....a system in the NE GOM in 144 hours and a low south of the Cape Verde islands in 144 hours....+ Bertha........

Link

morning
this morning there are a number of interest areas in the CATl the SW CARIBBEAN and off the african coast.
Hurricane Bertna continues to move NW towards Bermuda.The models take tjis system about 150 miles east of Bermuda.This all depends when the storm makes that crucial north turn. the contination of the NW track to a position S or SW of the island could put the island on the direct path of Bertha. time is the factor and how soon can the trough weaken the high.

there has been an increase in convection in the CATL associated with a westward moving tropical wave near 45 W. the ststem has some cyclonic turning 11N which appears to be at the upper and mid levels. conditions there are favourable for further organisation as the system moves westward at 15 mph.
the area off the african coast has not shown any signs of organisation. the GFS ,UKMET and the EUROPEAN MODELS have been hinting in their latest runs of the possibility of a tropical system forming at about 30 w. there is no sign of that at the moment. the QS this morning missed the ares in the CATL and the area off the african coast
the last area is one NW of of Panama which showed a flare up f convection this morning. this area according to climatology is favourable for development.
Quoting IKE:
00Z CMC shows....a system in the NE GOM in 144 hours and a low south of the Cape Verde islands in 144 hours....+ Bertha........

Link



I believe it also has a depression or weak TS making landfall in NC
Thanks for the information guys!
1343. IKE

Quoting Thundercloud01221991:
Quoting IKE:
00Z CMC shows....a system in the NE GOM in 144 hours and a low south of the Cape Verde islands in 144 hours....+ Bertha........

Link



I believe it also has a depression or weak TS making landfall in NC


Yeah...you're right....I didn't see that earlier.
Quoting IKE:
00Z CMC shows....a system in the NE GOM in 144 hours and a low south of the Cape Verde islands in 144 hours....+ Bertha........

Link



Thanks IKE
man if that is right we will catch up to the 2005 season really fast we would have up to the E storm taken care of
1346. IKE
Quoting Thundercloud01221991:
man if that is right we will catch up to the 2005 season really fast



Hard to believe the CMC.

The 06Z GFS aims Cristobal(??) at the northern islands...putting it near 17N, 56W in 162 hours...Link
Quoting Thundercloud01221991:
man if that is right we will catch up to the 2005 season really fast


dont say the forbiden number(2005). LOL
Quoting IKE:
Quoting Thundercloud01221991:
man if that is right we will catch up to the 2005 season really fast



Hard to believe the CMC.

The 06Z GFS aims Cristobal(??) at the northern islands...putting it near 17N, 56W in 162 hours...Link


I know the CMC is always wrong
1349. IKE
The 00Z ECMWF and the latest GFS(06Z) runs are close...on the path of a CATL system. Doesn't look like a turn north before the islands.
The 06Z GFS aims Cristobal(??) at the northern islands...putting it near 17N, 56W in 162 hours...Link


The GFS makes Cristobal a monster in the north atlantic.

1351. IKE
I do believe the C storm...maybe even D storm(20% chance), will be here within 7-10 days.
Quoting IKE:
I do believe the C storm...maybe even D storm(20% chance), will be here within 7-10 days.


Ill say this the GFS is very consistant with the C storm so i think it will happen too.
Quoting IKE:
I do believe the C storm...maybe even D storm(20% chance), will be here within 7-10 days.


that would still make it so this year would be very very active already likely 16-20 storms if that is the start
1354. IKE
Quoting TheWeatherMan504:
Quoting IKE:
I do believe the C storm...maybe even D storm(20% chance), will be here within 7-10 days.


Ill say this the GFS is very condistant with the C storm so i think it will happen too.


The fact that the ECMWF agrees, makes me agree.
Quoting Thundercloud01221991:
Quoting IKE:
I do believe the C storm...maybe even D storm(20% chance), will be here within 7-10 days.


that would still make it so this year would be very very active already likely 16-20 storms if that is the start


you never know........
Me too i say a 90% chance that the GFS, European models, and the CMC are correct with the formation of Cristobal.
Preliminary Extended Forecast Discussion


Preliminary Extended Forecast Discussion
Nws Hydrometeorological Prediction Center Camp Springs Md
415 Am Edt Fri Jul 11 2008

Valid 12z Tue Jul 15 2008 - 12z Fri Jul 18 2008

The polar vortex near the north pole begins to drop southward towards alaska and the canadian archipelago...which begins to divert the storm track in eastern canada and the northern atlantic even farther northward...leaving bertha in weak steering flow for the forseeable future. Across the pacific...the southern movement of the vortex helps amplify the flow pattern somewhat...as high latitude ridging across northwest canada begins to favor the idea of a progressive closed cyclone in the pacific northwest late in the period.

In general...the models show good agreement. Detail issues with the 00z gfs showing the weakest northwestern trough led to its dismissal. The 00z canadian becomes slow with a system moving across central and eastern canada mid to late next week...leaving its solution in doubt. Overall...the 00z ecmwf is in good agreement with the various ensemble means...so used its solution early on before blending in 50 percent of the 00z ncep ensemble mean later on to deal with detail differences and deepen the 00z ecmwf representation of the upper level troughing in the pacific northwest late in the period.

ROTH
1360. JRRP

Anyone here keeping score so far on the number of TS and cannes? if so whats the score?
1362. JRRP
72h
Quoting trunkmonkey:
Anyone here keeping score so far on the number of TS and cannes? if so whats the score?


2 Tropical Storms
1 Hurricane
1 Major Hurricane
1364. IKE
Quoting JRRP:
72h


Seems in line with the GFS and ECMWF for a system to form.
Hey guys if I have to eat crow again it will be alot eating fish on fridays.
Quoting IKE:
Quoting JRRP:
72h


Seems in line with the GFS and ECMWF for a system to form.


Raising the chance of Cristobal to 95%.
thanks, 504 for the info!
No problem
504 It will be alot tougher if Bertha is still spinning in the central atlantic We will see.
1370. JRRP
yeah
Quoting leftovers:
504 It will be alot tougher if Bertha is still spinning in the central atlantic We will see.


where do you think bertha will be in 7-10 days?
Anyway leftovers, if bertha is near canada in 7-10 day why not? Plus even if Bertha is still spining out there in the central atlantic i cant see how that would prevent another storm to devolop 1000 miles away. We have seen 3-4 storms in the Atlantic at 1 time. so why not?
1373. beell
Is it cause I never looked hard at it before? Or, did they turn on another pixel or two to indicate Bermuda on the SSD pages?
what the chance the storm forms of nc coast
1375. cg2916
Quoting TheWeatherMan504:
Anyway leftovers, if bertha is near canada in 7-10 day why not? Plus even if Bertha is still spining out there in the central atlantic i cant see how that would prevent another storm to devolop 1000 miles away. We have seen 3-4 storms in the Atlantic at 1 time. so why not?

It either goes there or it goes to England.
1376. IKE
Quoting beell:
Is it cause I never looked hard at it before? Or, did they turn on another pixel or two to indicate Bermuda on the SSD pages?


Looks like they moved the floater.
1377. cg2916
1374.
About zero.
1378. beell
IKE, It's on all of them. Not just the floater.
1379. beell
Not the issue of the day for sure lol.
Just wondering...
1380. IKE
Quoting boatmanoki:
what the chance the storm forms of nc coast


This from the discussion this morning....Morehead City,NC....

"With weak ridging settling into eastern NC...latest model consensus
Suggs precipitation associated with surface wave development on the front off the
coast may only graze coastal NC so have lowered probability of precipitation significantly
for the weekend."....

Out-to-sea if anything does form......

Bertha's EWRC just seems to keep going and going lol...you can tell its still going on as you can't see an eye right now...causing the ADT numbers to have a rapid downturn.
1369.

Will you please stop with that lol...if Bertha is up at 25N she isn't gonna stop something from forming at 10N especially since she is much farther west...if STL was here I would have him post that pic of the cyclones forming right next to each other.
Your right if bertha is near canada. Hopefully we have a slow yr. There is enough suffering going on.
1384. IKE
Quoting leftovers:
Your right if bertha is near canada. Hopefully we have a slow yr. There is enough suffering going on.



OMG.........I give up........
Boatman the models are indicating a cut-off low forming off of the NC/SC coast and have it as warm core which means when & if it forms it has to be watched because depending on the environment and the set up if it sits over warm water long enough it possibly could become tropical. Are you in NC?
The core is re-structuring...I'm almost 100% sure that this EWRC is about done.
Morning all. I notice Bertha still hasn't resolved the eye problem as yet. So far she hasn't regained that "textbook" look.

I also find the increased potential for the rest of the month intriguing. Usually July is the driest and least stormy of the summer months. In particular this middle decade (10th - 20th) rarely sees storms; most years one may find a leftover storm from June in the first decade or an early start storm after the 21st. So this potential parade of storms is fascinating.
1385.

That is correct...which is why it must be watched...of course there is a higher chance for the EATL/CATL system but this should be watched as well.
She has a very circular cloud pattern so she's gonna look impressive once that eye shows up

1390. 882MB
Goodmorning everyone, I see that more models are coming into agreement with the possible "CRISTOBAL" next week, the major models ECMWF and the GFS all head the system generally westward toward the northern islands with a pretty strong ridge to its north.
Quoting leftovers:
504 It will be alot tougher if Bertha is still spinning in the central atlantic We will see.


Huh? Have you ever seen this? I guess not, LOL...

1392. 882MB
That picture from the 1995 hurricane season.
Morning All.

EWRC still going? sheeesh
FYI: Weather456 has linked a blog full of interesting info.
Is recon heading to Bertha?

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. HURRICANE BERTHA.....AL022008
A. 11/1800Z
B. AFXXX 0102A BERTHA
C. 11/1215Z
D. 28.9N 61.9W
E. 11/1730Z TO 11/2000Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
Quoting 882MB:
That picture from the 1995 hurricane season.


I know...I just want leftovers to see storms can form close to each other...
1393.

Yea you can see the new eyewall starting to take shape as the eye is gone.
Then why did Steve say itabout 10 yrs ago? 1382. extreme236 11:49 AM GMT on July 11, 2008
1369.

Will you please stop with that lol...if Bertha is up at 25N she isn't gonna stop something from forming at 10N especially since she is much farther west...if STL was here I would have him post that pic of the cyclones forming right next to each other.
Action: Quote | Ignore User
I least I am not a cut and paste forecaster. Hopefully once Bertha heads north something develops and replaces Bertha just alittle closer N Amer stalls around 20n for another wk.
1382. extreme236 11:49 AM GMT on July 11, 2008
1385. NC0WX0Man 11:52 AM GMT on July 11, 2008

The forecast development in the CATL certainly could develop and Bertha could have an impact on trek as ridging will likely nose in to the south of her and help maintain a lower latitude track for the new system. Less likely but still possible is an area off the SE coast over the next few days as reenforcing shots of energy rotate offshore over a stalled/decaying front/trof.
2pm today recon is going.

HERE is a link I throw out a lot. It helps when dealing with Zulu times.
1398.

I don't know why Steve said it but usually just because one person says something doesn't mean its true...look at that pic from 1995...Steve's not right.
I haven't heard much from people talking about the over all shape of the storm, but Bertha is remarkably symetrical and getting denser. I believe that symetry is one of the big reasons it is holding together so well even with the rising and falling sheer environment.
1400.

Maybe when recon heads out Bertha will be out of this EWRC...
The NOGAPS now develops something in the EATL
Quoting philliesrock:
The NOGAPS now develops something in the EATL


Yeah...and it looks to be carrying it on a more southerly course...interesting!
Notice when Berta as gets closer to Bermuda predictions call for a sharper turn away from the island
There we're several comments about that yesterday Biff. She's not going to do much at all until the EWRC is complete. I personally don't think it's quite done with that yet. You'll know when it's done without a doubt. Shouldn't take long at all to rebound given the structure.
Since most of the models seems to be in agreement,then the atlantic is in labor and cristobal will be born soon.

btw I have a somewhat related weather question, is there any correlation between the West Coast dry fire conditions and the intensity of the atlantic hurricane season?
When that eye pops out again...and if she still has the circular pattern with no banding features she's gonna look like an annular hurricane at least for a little while.
Quoting all4hurricanes:
Notice when Berta as gets closer to Bermuda predictions call for a sharper turn away from the island


A trough is supposed to come through there tomorrow that will turn it towards the N / E in the short term.

I don't think it's a good sign that the first two storms of the season, one in June, one in July, both are landfalling storms.

And, since we are on the subject of landfalling storms, don't forget that the Azores are out there just WAITING for a hurricane hit. They've had their fair share over the years - and I don't mean former, extratropical hurricanes, either. I think they got hit in 2006 . . . lol
I may be out of my mind, but the GFS and UKMET seem to want to develop the Twave around 40W? Any thoughts?
Last post of the day. Yes I see 20 storms all parading across the atlantic. But they are moving. Now we basically got a system stalled just north of the MDR. Why would Steve Lyons mention this about 10 yrs ago on his report. I have not seen him since I was around 25 living in the island. Well? Kory wrote me since a anti cyclone is over the our slow moving system it tends to promote drying over the MDR regions. What goes up must come down. You guys think I am mean or something to disagree with you all. I dont see much today. A wave lacking clouds which would of developed I believe if Bertha was not spinning just north of it.
The CMC ensembles, when they all agree this year, have been great at forecasting TC's...that is why we must worry. Almost all of them show a violent hurricane slam the East Coast, from Florida all the way up to New England (which has been the most popular spot).

Just sayin'. =)
Good Morning LeeLee.

Not necessarily the fires have an impact but, the pattern that caused them plays a roll in Atlantic winds and troughs ect...
GFS, Euro, CMC stall Bertha...and strengthen it into a huge hurricane, just sitting there for about a week.
Typically when it's quiet in the EPAC it's active in the Atlantic. There's always exceptions to the rule though.
1412.

Well she is a bit more than "just north of it" she is more like thousands of miles NW of it. The wave wouldn't look any different than it does now even if Bertha was gone. But anyway back to Bertha.
Morning everyone...Bertha is still undergoing an eyewall replacement cycle. It has taken in my opinion an unsually long time because of the cool waters. If this had been in the GOM that cycle would have been speed up.
1413.

Hey Phillies - can you give me a link where the models are showing a major hurricane hitting the east coast? I can't find it.

Thanks, Melissa
Quoting melwerle:
1413.

Hey Phillies - can you give me a link where the models are showing a major hurricane hitting the east coast? I can't find it.

Thanks, Melissa

CMC ensembles...don't even look for the GFS ensembles, they didn't even develop Bertha...lol
If a large anticyclon is over a large area 2 storms can develop as long as they are about 700 miles apart.
Strong High pressure builds in on the west coast and affects patterns the same way our Bermuda/Azores high does here. In 2005 the 3 highs bridged together frequently, limiting the amount of troughs that we're able to dig to the south thus keeping shear unusually low.
what is this??? is this what mode runs are forcasting????

thanks Phillie - haven't seen that page before. Bookmarking it - thank you.
1426. Patrap
Bertha

ESL WV Loop Link

IR Loop Link
Dvorak estimates/AMSU estimates:

09:23 AMSU 75 knots
09:42 AMSU 76 knots
11:45 TAFB 77 knots
11:45 SAB 77 knots
Thats a nice image of the hurricane.
1429. Patrap
UNYSIS 10-Day GFSx Link
1430. Buhdog
1428.....


LOL
12Z model runs were set to 75 knots and is in agreement with the AMSU/TAFB/SAB estimates.
Latest MIMIC. Last image is 1 hour old and still trying to close up. Very close though.
Bertha has been putting her act together for 18 hours the end result better be good.
1435. NEwxguy
generally when there is a ridge in the west,there is a trough in the east,not etched in stone,but that usually happens.If its warm in the west,I am cool here in new england.
That is one heck of a large eye to close up too, lol.
1437. IKE
Quoting philliesrock:
The NOGAPS now develops something in the EATL


Are you talking about the 6Z run?
1438. Drakoen
Interesting stuff from the ECMWF.
Photobucket
The ADT is starting to pick up an eye feature again:

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 11 JUL 2008 Time : 121500 UTC
Lat : 28:12:15 N Lon : 61:44:46 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.3 / 981.0mb/ 72.2kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
4.0 4.4 4.4

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : -1.2mb

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 40 km

Center Temp : +4.4C Cloud Region Temp : -48.9C

Scene Type : LARGE EYE

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : FLAG
Quoting IKE:
Quoting philliesrock:
The NOGAPS now develops something in the EATL


Are you talking about the 6Z run?

No, the 0z run...but I see the 6z run still has something there.

This is pretty impressive, considering that the NOGAPS didn't develop Bertha until it came off the coast.
1441. Patrap
Model Madness...Arrrghhhhhhh!!!

UNCLASSIFIED
FNMOC WXMAP Model: NOGAPS Area: Tropical Atlantic DTG: 2008071106
500mb Heights Relative Vorticity Temp [C] Link
she is still having issues closing off that huge eye of hers...tand the inner eye just doesnt want to go away completely....i dont think it will be much longer though...maybe a a few more hours...then she will probly be beautiful...
1443. IKE
On the 6Z GFDL and HWRF runs....in 6 days/144 hours...Bertha should be about out of the picture as to any affect on the CATL wave/system....IF the model runs are correct. Assuming something forms in the CATL.
1444. Patrap
FNMOC(NAVY)

PUBLIC PRODUCTSLink
Meteorology Oceanography


1. Global & Regional Weather Prediction Charts (WXMAP)
2. Global Ensemble Weather Prediction Charts (EFS)
1445. JRRP
do you think the convection near 43w 11n could be the next INVEST??

How can you tell how strong/weak a trough is, visually?
Patrap - the Unisys GFS has been pretty accurate.
Interesting tidbits from one of my state meteorologist contacts:
NOAA reports: "Based on current atmospheric and oceanic conditions, recent trends, and model forecasts, ENSO-neutral conditions are expected to continue into Northern Hemisphere Fall 2008." See -http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/index.shtml
for the rest of the story.

What this means hurricane-season-wise is that there will be little wind shear to inhibit tropical cyclone development; hence, could be a busy Fall for us. Now, you need to keep an eye on the position of the Bermuda High which could either direct the storms out to the Atlantic, ala 2007 season, or elsewhere….

Your guys thoughts on this?