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Bermuda tropical wave

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 4:13 PM GMT on July 22, 2007

A tropical wave near Bermuda (dubbed "97L" by NHC this evening) is interacting with an upper-level low pressure system just west of the island. The two weather systems are producing plenty of clouds and thunderstorms over a wide region of ocean. An area of concentrated thunderstorms has developed about 100 miles east of Bermuda, and we'll have to watch this area for continued development. Wind shear has decreased to about 10 knots over the area, and is expected to remain at 10 knots or less for the next two days, which is low enough to encourage development. However, the disturbance is moving northward towards cooler waters, and it will only have about 1 more day over favorable water temperatures greater than 80F. In any case, the system's expected northward track over the next three days means that any tropical storm that might develop will probably not last long or threaten any land areas. The Hurricane Hunter aircraft that was scheduled to investigate the system today was canceled, and no further flights are planned.

NHC's new Experimental Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
Last week, NHC began issuing their new Experimental Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook. The product takes the standard Tropical Weather Outlook text and combines it with an infrared satellite image identifying the regions being discussed. It's similar to what I frequently do on my blogs, and I think NHC should make it a permanent feature on their web site. There's a feedback form on the web site to comment on the usefulness of the new product.



Figure 2. Infrared satellite image showing the upper level low interacting with a tropical wave near Bermuda (area 1). Image credit: NHC's new Experimental graphical Tropical Weather Outlook.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

God bless the fishes, Jp!!!
Hey folks.

Just got back from taking the family to see Hairspary - best invsetment all weekend...

Is that a wave that's moving NW through the Caribbean? Has the NWS had anything to say about it? Has SW, JP, MLC or any of the other decent prognosticators had any observations?
Not much JP, not sure though! Been out all day and evening! Looks to be associated with the front, pretty concentrated though.
That's nice from you Niceville, but I'm a rookie. You put me in too much cotton with the names you mentioned.

We've been watching it. NHC never has paid it any mind really. Probably because the convective blob is gonna have a tough time sneaking into the GOM. BUT, if it were to make it through the night, I'd say there's still a very small chance of some development. It seems to still want to travel wnw. Too much shear between Cancun and Cuba.

Now, that's just my "very rookie" humble opinion. The GOM conditions are ripe.
508. RL3AO
I wish this African wave would develop tonight. Make it become a fish storm and keep that kind of wave away from the Caribbean. Not that I'm a wishcaster or anything.
First time poster...frequent lurker.

I'm just hoping that once we have something to analyze all this bickering stops.

Back to lurking...
Thanks.

I noticed in the latest IR loop that it seems to be holding it's own against the shear right now.

I was curious because the current NWS shear map (the 4 color one) shows shear to be < 20kts in the region. The shear forecast is for 20-30kts for the next 50 hrs or so, but if it can get N of the Yucatan/Cuba strait - the shear drops significantly...
If it stayed around 15N RL3, Fish storm it would not be.
6 45 funk top zoomed high speed real small may be nuttin tops cooling expanding fast looks to have a swirl
Posted By: violet312s at 3:51 AM GMT on July 23, 2007.
First time poster...frequent lurker.

I'm just hoping that once we have something to analyze all this bickering stops.


...lol, Violet, tonight was just an appetizer!!! Just wait!
i hope dr.masters gives us more insight into the steering currents. will it be a 04-05 or a 06?
I wish someone could tell me what the difference is between a "red" low and a "black" low on the sfc map!
i mean it will be the steering currents and not the sheer number of storms that determines if this season will be devastating to land or not
weder, send him an email message and ask him to address that issue. Good point!
i'll do that, moonlight

Posted By: wederwatcher555
i hope dr.masters gives us more insight into the steering currents. will it be a 04-05 or a 06?


I expect Dr. M would refer you to blogs of July 13-15

July 13
Major steering current shift
...a major development to report--it appears likely that a major shift in the weather pattern will occur in late July across the Northern Hemisphere. If the GFS model is correct, the trough of low pressure that has been consistently in place over the Eastern U.S. will finally move off, to be replaced by a ridge of high pressure (Figure 1). This would bring a hurricane steering pattern much like we saw in 2004 and 2005, with increased risk for the Gulf of Mexico and reduced risk for the U.S. East Coast from the Carolinas northward. The east coast of Florida would remain at normal risk. The GFS model has been inconsistent in its prediction of the timing of this shift, but has been persistent enough about it that I'm forecasting a 70% likelihood of this major pattern shift occurring by the end of July. Such a shift would bring the western U.S. some relief from the current heat wave, and bring high heat and air pollution problems to the Midwest and East Coast. How long such a shift might last is impossible to predict--it could last for a week, or could remain in place for the remainder of hurricane season.


July 15
Steering currents
The steering current pattern for June and the first half of July featured a pattern much like we saw in 2006, with an active jet stream bringing many troughs of low pressure off the East Coast of the U.S. As I discussed in my blog on Friday the 13th, this steering current pattern is expected to shift next week, bringing a ridge of high pressure over the Eastern U.S. and an extension of the Bermuda High westwards over the U.S. This pattern will act to block recurvature of any tropical cyclones that might form in the last half of July. Such a pattern puts the Western Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico, and east coast of Florida at highest risk, as we saw in 2004 and 2005. Note that the the northern Lesser Antilles Islands, Puerto Rico, and the U.S. East Coast from the Carolinas northwards can expect reduced risk under this steering pattern. Steering current patterns are not predictable more than about two weeks in advance, and there is no way to tell if this new steering current pattern will remain in place for a few days or a few months.
--------
CRS
Sailor, I've been to several places in the Caribbean, but never the Turk and Caicos. I've seen some beautiful pics. I'd love to visit sometimes...looks so very tranquil. I'm sure you enjoy it. And, btw...thanks for jumping in on the blog. You're input has been nice and straight forward!

The steering pattern is unpredictable outside of a few days; but, that high sitting out in the Atl sure looks unapproachable for now. It'll be interesting to see what the train keeps shooting at us!
CRS yeah that is what puzzled me when someone came on earlier and said the troughs would return

Didn't you tell me that we are back to no ridging right now, jp? O_o How does that puzzle you, then?
524. RL3AO
Still no floaters on 97L.
jp, you did say that, or were you joking?

all heresay Koritheman


look how many times we have switched

early July, no ridging
mid July, ridging will return
now we are back to no ridging


See? Were you joking or were you serious? You said back to no ridging. Or did you mean that because of the front? I was under the impression you meant troughing would stay in place all year.
Still no floaters on 97L.

Who cares, it won't develop anyway. >_>
powerful stuff off the coast of africa looks real good on wv also nice little burp at 7n 45w
whats for get 97L and move on to what may be 98L that wave that this came off of africa has a vary good ch of be comeing some in BIG!
I've had some interesting visits to my newly posted blog. I have to say this last one by "ShadesofAqua" really caught my attention.

She made a nice post. I invite you to take a look at her blog and hit "play" on the tv screen there. It'll give you revalation!

Link
531. RL3AO
Never thought I would hear taz say "forget about ***insert active invest***".
LOL, RL3, TAZ knows it's spinning out to fishland! lol.
I see, jp. Thanks for clearing that up.

I still foresee ridging, though. We'll see.

And Taz, that wave could become something big, but not until days upon days upon DAYS from now... For the simple fact SAL is in front of it. SSTs are warm enough for development, but SAL will slow immediate development down somewhat. In the Carribean or Gulf of Mexico, there is high TCHP, so a major hurricane would blowup there if conditions were right.
It was entraining some of it earlier, though, jp. Last night, I believe.

Do you think it will develop, jp?
Please dont say fish land not wishing any thing on any one but i like rec my hurricane when they do make land fall it this some in i like doing and i cant help it in 2006 i did not get any recing done on tv be come no hurricane made land fall


this some in i like doing not that i want a hurricane to make land fall on any one but i this like recing my hurricanes on tv when they do
537. RL3AO
The SAL seems to be moving a little faster than the actual low.
night all
Nite, Jp and Taz. Have a good sleep. Not far behind you!
jp, RL, thanks for your help. Good night guys. I look foward to seeing 98L, and possibly TD3 soon. I predict a TD by Thursday afternoon.
RL3, I posted a new blog with CV and SAL info, with some help of some fellow bloggers. It's intended to post current SAL info and links. Check it out here.

Please offer any criticisms, corrections and suggestions! TIA
Good night, Kori...have a good sleep!
545. RL3AO
Without looking it up, which active NRL system is this?

1

A: 97L
B: 07E
C: COSME
D: 90S
C? lol, guess!
547. RL3AO
take a closer look MLC
D


IT's spinning clockwise
barbs in a different direction, D? What am I missing? It's late...lol.
550. RL3AO
sullivan nailed it

90S is in the southern hemisphere and it spinning clockwise.
wtg, sully!
Coverage of covection between 10N and 20N in Africa is the highest I've seen thus far this year. With 3 waves moving off Africa in a 120hr time span this should at least dampen the SAL in the East Atlantic by the end of this week.

One of these waves is going to make strides towards developing.
Posted By: moonlightcowboy at 5:46 AM GMT on July 23, 2007.
Posted By: sullivanweather at 5:44 AM GMT on July 23, 2007.
Coverage of covection between 10N and 20N in Africa is the highest I've seen thus far this year. With 3 waves moving off Africa in a 120hr time span this should at least dampen the SAL in the East Atlantic by the end of this week.

One of these waves is going to make strides towards developing.


...there you have it! Sully said it!
554. RL3AO
I agree and I think it will be the one the NHC is watching.
RL,

I dont know if it's the current one. If it's one thing I always see with these waves that come off in rapid sucession, they seem to kind of merge once they get off the coast.

Energy seems to transfer from a preceeding wave to the next wave via. the ITCZ, making the next one bigger.

In any case, climatology is starting to favor that area now. By the time the last of these waves moves off it'll be only 3 or 4 days until August.


GR8 garden, Sully! Nice blog, too!
thats a biggie over africa right now
MLC, thanks a million!!

MLC, have a good nite also!
561. RL3AO
TD-7E has some convection over the center and may be upgraded to TS Dalila at the next advisory.
562. RL3AO
Welcome Tropical Storm Dalila.
564. RL3AO
I'm going to bed. Maybe we will have 98L when I wake up...maybe 97L will surprise us and develop...maybe nothing will happen.

Later.
ZZZZZZZZZzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz................
Very unusual summertime early morning eastward-moving thunderstorm over ECFL coast as warmer air lifted over dying cool front stalled just south of the Cape.

Mid-Atlantic coast cut-off low is supposed to retrograde NW and start to fill, but MLB forecasters calling for persistence of Eastern CONUS trough through at least next weekend.

Small vortices continue to generate along the general trough in the Eastern Gulf moving E-NE, and pressures are lower (Station 42003 262 nm South of Panama City, FL reports 29.92" as of 0849 GMT), but GOES shear analysis reporting 10-20+ kts shear attm.

Looks like 97L didn't live up to its name, and its remnant and also the convection currently near the Bahamas will amount to nothing more than a rain threat for New England as most of the associated moisture gets sheared up and around the retrograding mid-Atlantic coast ULL.
good morning
another day of watching and waiting for things to happen.
98L may be in the E ALT or ehe central carib
check out the two areas


Link
Link

This is a great link if you want to view cloud formations close up. You just have to wait for the sun to come up on them.
575. IKE
Long-range GFS model run....nothing in the Atlantic through August 7th......

Link
577. IKE
What wave?
The only issue with the wave is that it's still part if the ITCZ. If it breaks away it will have a chance to develop.
584. IKE
The 8:05 AM EDST tropical weather discussion on that wave....

"...Tropical waves...
tropical wave is along 33w/34w S of 20n moving W 20 kt. The
surface low is no longer discernible.
Broad inverted-v signature
is observed covering the area from 28w-42w. Scattered moderate
convection on the S portion of the wave within 60 nm of 8n from
31w-35w.".....

Next!
Good Morning,
hmmmm......that was interesting
Briefly prior to the 7:33 update, the following appeared above:

TD
Figure 1. Computer model tracks for tropical disturbance 97L.

That will make you go look for another cup of coffee....
CRS
LOL CRS.
589. IKE
OOPS!
LOL mavericks, I saw it.
593. IKE
Posted By: jphurricane2006 at 6:52 AM CDT on July 23, 2007.
wow IKE casting aside this thing so quickly


hmmmm must be the impatience of the slow part of the season kicking in lol


I hope it stays this way all year.

The "slow part of the season" is almost over. We'll see what happens come August...only 8 days away.
.....veewy tricky, that 97L
CRS
597. IKE
Posted By: mavericksfan101 at 6:57 AM CDT on July 23, 2007.
I DON'T WANT TO WAIT UNTIL AUGUST THERE NEEDS TO BE SOMETHING IN JULY BESIDES THE DOUGHNUT HOLE


LOL! Just take it easy 101....

The doughnut hole?????????
Morning everybody,

Caicos, that map made me go put on the pot! LOL

Any rain down your way this a.m.? We had some light overnight showers, and partly cloudy skies so far this morning. I'm assuming with the ULL retrograding towards the NW this kind of weather is likely to continue for a day or two . ..
600. IKE
Sorry 101...16 looks on the high side.

Heck...I predicted 18!
16 is only 14 more storms, remember. Still entirely possible, and not unlikely in the context of the last 15 years.
jp, I guess he means it took so long for the busy part of the season to arrive.
607. IKE
101...you remind me of 188 that was on here yesterday and is it just a coincedence that you both apparently live in Texas and you both live in Dallas? You being a Mavs fan.
612. IKE
Can't you see the 34W 20N wave? Try looking out at 34 west, 20 north, and you'll find a little cluster of some kind of very weak circulation NOT associated with 98L. (I'm calling it that from now on until it becomes a TD)

Jeez.

When does school start?
614. IKE
Posted By: mavericksfan101 at 7:08 AM CDT on July 23, 2007.
But if there's 15 or less this year, then my college tuition money goes poof.


Must to have bet your life savings on the 2007 Atlantic hurricane season... I wouldn't tell anybody about that!
Posted By: mavericksfan101 at 12:07 PM GMT on July 23, 2007.

Can't you see the 34W 20N wave? Try looking out at 34 west, 20 north, and you'll find a little cluster of some kind of very weak circulation NOT associated with 98L. (I'm calling it that from now on until it becomes a TD)


good idea...this will not confuse anyone.
When does school start?


Not soon enough...
622. IKE
Posted By: mavericksfan101 at 7:13 AM CDT on July 23, 2007.
Do you have a problem with us TEENS?


You're on here wishing for storms...bad ones...to hit somebody.

You must go crazy in the off season???
Morning all ☺

I see the old CMC is up to the same ol trickery, has a TS off the E coast past about 100hrs. The 6z GFS seems to have everything moving in extreme slow motion.

Back to work, y'all have a great day.

Quick Links-Models, imagery, marine data, preparedness and much more.
624. Murko
Morning. Anyone have a link for the master copy of the 2005 season GOES video?
627. IKE
Posted By: mavericksfan101 at 7:16 AM CDT on July 23, 2007.
I wonder when 100L will come...and I hope that develops too

Frankly, I hope the SAL develops into a haboob-hurricane. I hope a piece of land breaks off of Africa and spins up a hurricane. ANYTHING!!!


I don't think it goes to 100L... it starts over after 99L...to 90L.

A piece of land breaks off?

You need help!
Moning all! :)

Cape Verdes look like they are firing up pretty good..... things may start to get interesting soon! :)
631. IKE
just seems that in most cases your maturity is not of the standard that is needed to have a logical discussion

Amen to that~~~~~~~~
BahaHurican
Any rain down your way this a.m.? We had some light overnight showers


Good morning,.... nope no rain during night.
CRS
635. IKE
101...188.....we know how you are when there isn't a storm in the Atlantic. I can only imagine how you are when there is one.

Will you be on here westcasting? That's easy to answer....yes.
636. IKE
Posted By: mavericksfan101 at 7:23 AM CDT on July 23, 2007.
I never understood it when people always say "Amen" to things. Can you please explain it to me what it means here? : )


Here goes...damn right!
638. IKE
You're a wishcaster.

You're probably hoping storm X goes west instead of turning north and heading into the north Atlantic graveyard...."west"casting.
643. IKE
Thunderstorms in the northern GOM...a 1011mb low south of Apalachicola....rain for the gulf coast and Florida.

8.71 inches of rain this month....in Defuniak Spgs.,Fl.
I never understood it when people always say "Amen" to things. Can you please explain it to me what it means here? : )

No one has enough time to explain to you everyting you need to know.
any takers, $5 for each bet, all of which goes to his college fund, we all know he could use the education lol

I bet it will be $7UP!D
good morning everyone... any thing to watch in the tropics??
Is there something @ 24N 50 W? Looks to be some sort of circulation there going by wind barbs?

BBL
another boring weather day. GOOD!
I think I know who this is. I think it is altestic or whatever his name was.
good morning everyone... any thing to watch in the tropics??

Not much going on out there ema. Invest 97L doesn't have much going for it. SSTs are dropping below 80F as it continues to move north. I suspect the NHC dubbed it an invest to get some of those flaws worked out from the new software they installed last month.

Three waves are present. The one in the Western Caribbean doesn't have much convection associated with it, most of which is being enhanced by a upper-level high near 16N and 80W.

The one in the eastern Caribbean shows no signs of development currently and is moving to fast for anything to really develop (20 knots west)

The wave farthest east near 35W and 20N has lost its surface low.

The models are pretty much the same. The GFS was trying to develop something off the east coast of Florida later this week but the time frame keeps changing and no other models pick up on this.

The CMC is being over active as usual and I haven pretty much disregarded this model so far in regards to tropical development.
Why is boring bad in the tropics?

I understand you are young and enthusiastic Mavs, but be careful what you wish for....
660. Murko
Please don't feed the troll.
661. IKE
Posted By: WPBHurricane05 at 7:46 AM CDT on July 23, 2007.
I think I know who this is. I think it is altestic or whatever his name was.


Yup...he/she/it...has 2 current active SN's...the one he's using today and the studdynotsobuddy188, that he was using yesterday.
maverickfan....why would you think i am a guy
664. IKE
Posted By: mavericksfan101 at 7:49 AM CDT on July 23, 2007.
one of the guys here has a bunch of banned nicknames including HurriAndrewFury, AroughLeague1209, unctarheel1209, and Altestic87


And you happen to know all of them. What a coincedence!
maverickfan....why would you think i am a guy

Simply put he's 16. He still fears those cooties. Just ignore him.
The CMC is being over active as usual and I haven pretty much disregarded this model so far in regards to tropical development.

But...if something does form, the CMC has been good with the track of systems so far this season. 96L is a good example. The CMC forecast was right on with the track of 96L.
669. IKE
Right 101...wink,wink.
ok jp thanks........i am just interested in the tropics and good conversation......not someone trying to start something
671. IKE
He'll start with the personal attacks soon and be banned within hours.

I'm surprised his mommy lets him get a hold of a computer.
But...if something does form, the CMC has been good with the track of systems so far this season. 96L is a good example. The CMC forecast was right on with the track of 96L.

Yes but the key words are IF something forms THEN it gets the track right lol. I would estimate that out of every 15 storms the CMC trys to spin up about 1 of them actually does and is never as strong as the model suggests. If other models were in agreement with the CMC then I would consider that area as something to watch but so far the CMC has been all by itself.
675. IKE
Jeez.

You need to back away from the keyboard 101.
I would estimate that out of every 15 storms the CMC trys to spin up about 1 of them actually does and is never as strong as the model suggests.

Like TS Barry.
the tropical wave in the central CARIB carries a long trail of showers with it. The inverted broad inverted 'V' system has a number of vortices along the trail .Although most of the conditions are in place ,it does not seem likely that the surrounding convection could gel together to get something going.
Stop fighting everybody...jeez, Dr. M's blog is like a wrestling ring here sometimes.
omg guys and good morning. Nash and others i say omg because somethin is wrong here. First i who am 15 join this site. then a whole bunch of 14-15 year olds start showing up. ???? oops i guess.
684. IKE
They've always been here when schools out.

99.9% of them are mature about things.
Good morning TCC, Ike, JP Emagirl...
686. IKE
Good morning!

oh ya and for the 150000th time! I said the blob in the atlantic which was oringnallly the puerto rican blob would probabaly not develop once it met the ull. And omg it didn't develop. so please STOP WISCHASTING for those who are doing it and STOP BICKERING. I mean jeez for those of you who are fighting don't you realize your arguing over clouds and politics??? come one just get along please enough fightin already. If you wan't someone to bicker at just say the magic words and stormkat will show up here then you can fight with him all ya want.
As far as I can tell the subject of todays discussion is that 97L got its feelings hurt when the front of the eastern coast of the US said something about his mother and he said something about some blob out in the gulf who wasn't really a girl
right now there is only one area of interest in the atlantic which isn't even going to develop until it reaches the carib. Howevere it is a moderate to strong tropical african wave with an attached wet sfc low. when it reaches the carrib sometime late this week if conditions have improved it should develop into a disturbance.
692. MahFL
Wrestling is not fighting, its showbusiness.
good morning nash>>>so just to be curoius how active do we think august is going to be...just want to make conversation....by the way i am really a girl just to set the record straight...........
yes jp i do. because of all the african dust. it doesn't improve enough to allow anything past a disturbance until you get to the carrib. plus ssts out there still are not that great but improve coming into the carrib.
anyway if you want a storm to watch just watch the epac and she will provide.

ts dailia updat:
000
WTPZ42 KNHC 230847
TCDEP2
TROPICAL STORM DALILA DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072007
200 AM PDT MON JUL 23 2007

IN THE PAST FEW HOURS...A BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED
SOUTHWEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. A BANDING FEATURE IS ALSO
TRYING TO FORM...WHICH IS A BIT IMPRESSIVE DUE TO THE 25 KT OF
NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR THE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY UNDER. TAFB AND SAB
DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE BOTH 2.5 OR 35 KT. I WAS
ORIGINALLY GOING TO MAINTAIN THE CYCLONE AS A DEPRESSION...BUT THE
DEEP CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED AND THE OVERALL ORGANIZATION OF THE
SYSTEM HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT
35 KT...AND SEVEN-E HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM DALILA.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 290/7. DALILA REMAINS SOUTH OF
A WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO...
WITH A MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO. AS THE RIDGE AND
TROUGH PROGRESS WESTWARD...MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE
CONCURS THAT THE STEERING CURRENTS WILL WEAKEN AND DALILA'S
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO SLOW FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. THEREAFTER...A SLIGHT ACCELERATION TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR
WEST-NORTHWEST IS ANTICIPATED. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS VERY
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND ALIGNED WITH THE MODEL
CONSENSUS.

THE CURRENT STRONG NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST TO ABATE IN 36 TO
48 HOURS...AND DALILA WILL BE IN A MORE CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENT FOR
STRENGTHENING. BY DAY FOUR...HOWEVER...THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO
ENCOUNTER COOLER WATERS NORTH OF 20N LATITUDE AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN.
THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS...GFDL...
AND HWRF SOLUTIONS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 23/0900Z 13.6N 108.6W 35 KT
12HR VT 23/1800Z 14.1N 109.2W 40 KT
24HR VT 24/0600Z 14.8N 110.0W 40 KT
36HR VT 24/1800Z 15.6N 110.7W 45 KT
48HR VT 25/0600Z 16.5N 111.4W 55 KT
72HR VT 26/0600Z 18.5N 113.5W 60 KT
96HR VT 27/0600Z 20.5N 116.5W 55 KT
120HR VT 28/0600Z 22.5N 120.0W 45 KT

$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI
LOL at Snotly - Excellent summary
Morning everyone -

JP - you have mail...

lol snotly good one.

also this is the sal:


it is all around the upper part of the wave jp and from the look of sat. imagery it isn't exactly helping it. Trust me it will not develop unless some freak miracle ocurrs which isn;t uncommon with weather until it reaches the carrib. enough said.
In Dr. M's last 15 day forecast on the 15th, he talked about a "major shift" in our weather pattern. Does anyone know if that shift is still forecasted? That trough seems to be as strong as ever from here in Florida all the way up the east coast.
Man I cant belive this rain today. Hasn't been this bad since the April Nor'Easter. If it keeps up it will be a nightmare getting home because of the floods :(
Not of all that is SAL, that map pick ups other things as well.
a. jp i dissagree the upper half of the wave is surrounded by dust eveident here and on vis imagery. the bottom convectiony half hoiwever admiditly isn't yet. notic how the dust flow bends down right now. if it stay that way the wave will run right into it tommorrow. also jp i would like to test my email function please tell me if youve' got mail from me starting now.
Good Morning All:

GREAT NEWS!

The 2005 Hurricane Season Time Lapse Animation created using the GOES East IR imagery is available for download!

The file size is approximately 148MB. It is the MASTER COPY and is much better in quality than the internet viewing copy located at Video.Google.com

I've been asked to add December 2005 and January 2006 to the animation, and I will do that as soon as possible.
gotta go be back soon.
Drak:

Just wanted to say you were right about the recon, I stand corrected. I just like to say when I am wrong.... :-)
okay jp. did you get my email?
Morning everyone. Looks like the real action is gonna be further south, the tropics are starting to look like....well - the tropics. Still hoping for a peaceful summer for everyone.
Posted By: DaytonaBeachWatcher at 1:30 PM GMT on July 23, 2007.

Drak:

Just wanted to say you were right about the recon, I stand corrected. I just like to say when I am wrong.... :-)


Heh ok...
Hey there StormW and JP - have a great day. Storm I look forward to your update later.
Good Morning All....Will be lurking today as Tropic quiet and work calls....However, I agree with JP that it is looking like it may be a "late" season so to speak.....While shear is always the "x" factor (as happened last year), all of the other conditions seem very ripe and i am particularly concerned,as always, with the very warm/hot SST's in the tropics.......As we all know, it only takes one and I hope that we do not see a timing scenario for a monster storm such as Andrew in 92 (First cane of the season forming in Mid-Late August)............We shall see...
Good Morning This is just a simple question what is going on with the blog. Is there a bunch of kids on here. Last 2 days it's been kinda strange. Just wondering. I figure I would come on here and see what was going on in the tropics but M101 just don't make no sense and yesterday it was 188 I think. Just wondering.
Admin Notice When using Dr. Masters' blog, please refrain from posting material not relevant to the discussion of tropical weather, or the topic of the blog entry itself. Please do not engage in personal attacks or bickering. Material not conforming to these standards should be flagged as Spam and ignored.

please stop fighting or you will both be flagged
722. Murko
cycloneoz: when I click on "download file" it just takes me back to the same page...
well, this is nice. everything we were watching has gone poof! in the n atlantic picture on the homepage. can someone give me a link to the infrared loop of the african coast or post a pic of it?
oh and I am 16 and I am more mature then both of you
thudercloud, why did you delete truth_andrew from your Weather forum?

PM you in just a minute
Posted By: jphurricane2006 at 1:52 PM GMT on July 23, 2007.
yes you are thundercloud, we appreciate that

Im not fighting anymore


Thanks for stopping
fixed the image
733. IKE
Posted By: clwstmchasr at 8:26 AM CDT on July 23, 2007.
In Dr. M's last 15 day forecast on the 15th, he talked about a "major shift" in our weather pattern. Does anyone know if that shift is still forecasted? That trough seems to be as strong as ever from here in Florida all the way up the east coast.


I don't think the major shift is going to last long...if it ever happens.
do not post that in here
sorry if i am changing the subject but i dont think we should be worried about many of these systems right now or even be watching them. i enjoy watching them, but a fact that i saw in that video and in some others is that there has to be LOADS of convection and circulation for them to classify anything a td or a ts. in 2005 there were 27 or 28 named or namable storms(one video said 27 one said 28) and about 3 to 5 unnamed cyclones that could have been classified, or were td's that weren't ts's. it's sad when that happens. just look at that video and you can see how they form. i'm not saying that you guys aren't knowledgable, i am just stating a fact that i noticed and it makes me feel pretty stupid.
water levels haven't risin yet, that surprising. Its raining buckets and sheets here :( Oh well might give me an excuse to grab the camera and go driving around.
Here is the link to the animation:

http://hyperfileshare.com/d/38055f1e

Scroll to the bottom of the page. There is an icon with two up arrows and the words "download this file". That's the button to hit to download just the file.
RAIN hitting the ground in So Cal this morning ^_^.

740. IKE
Here's a 500mb VORT run on the latest GFS....

troughs in the east.....

Link
ok now back to weather please. and on you guys' subject, wtf is that little post of a post?
743. IKE
Posted By: lightning10 at 9:07 AM CDT on July 23, 2007.
RAIN hitting the ground in So Cal this morning ^_^.


That's great news!
lightning, i'll do you a favor and make that a link. rain in california.
Now this is a nice link from the Navy site: Link. Model overlay on satellite photos.
Ike -
Did you notice the 96hr + Runs at 850 ?
Shows some development in the western Gulf.
The Water is WARM over there!
Any chances of it Actually happening?
Thats not a good radar. There is more rain moving east to west. For some reason there is a huge blind spot in the east towards the desert.
Posted By: Tropicnerd13 at 2:07 PM GMT on July 23, 2007.
ok now back to weather please. and on you guys' subject, wtf is that little post of a post?



I guess since it was posted I will explain

it is an admin on yourweather.30.forumer.com athat has been banned by me because of stealing personal information and selling it
sorry i cant read. i just woke up. it should say south carolina. i thougth it was southern california.
The shift in the steering pattern hasn't taken shape yet.

It isn't forecast to until the end of this month. Not there yet.
ok that's cool. i need to go drink an energy drink cause my brain's acting up. i cannt type or reed or spealll for that mater.
Is the GFS hinting at devel. in the GOM?
thundercloud wtf? were you seriosuly banned for stealing peoples personal ifnormation??? if so then how come you are alowd on this website?? an furthermore just cause your 16 doesn't make you anymore mature or less mature than the rest of us and trying to say that it does actually makes you less mature than the rest of us. Anyway i have been askin them to stop fifhgitin and so far they haven't listenedc so i have given up. fighting usually starts as a result of someone WISHCASTING! anyway maybe i should change my name to texaswishacsterkiller.
756. IKE
Posted By: Pachanga at 9:16 AM CDT on July 23, 2007.
Is the GFS hinting at devel. in the GOM?


I doubt it.
ok sorry for the blonde moments. now talking tropics, what was the name of the storm that went in between the peninsula under california and mainland mexico? is that called baha peninsula? my brain is still acting up.
thundercloud wtf? were you seriosuly banned for stealing peoples personal ifnormation??? if so then how come you are alowd on this website?? an furthermore just cause your 16 doesn't make you anymore mature or less mature than the rest of us and trying to say that it does actually makes you less mature than the rest of us. Anyway i have been askin them to stop fifhgitin and so far they haven't listenedc so i have given up. fighting usually starts as a result of someone WISHCASTING! anyway maybe i should change my name to texaswishacsterkiller.

first of all I am not stealing your personal info I told you that you can put fake info into the survey but I also do not sell the info I get HE DID
>_> Could this be a mistake? Some rotation?

Posted By: Thundercloud01221991 at 2:12 PM GMT on July 23, 2007.
Posted By: Tropicnerd13 at 2:07 PM GMT on July 23, 2007.
ok now back to weather please. and on you guys' subject, wtf is that little post of a post?


I guess since it was posted I will explain

it is an admin on yourweather.30.forumer.com athat has been banned by me because of stealing personal information and selling it



does that make it any easer to read
ah now i see. i apologize greatly i misread.
thoguht it it said you were banned by an admin.
Posted By: texascanecaster1 at 2:25 PM GMT on July 23, 2007.
ah now i see. i apologize greatly i misread.


Thanks
ok yeah im sorry to for that huge message. it took me a while to type it so i didnt see that you had already solved the problem. my bad.
Thanks Ike. Looks like the trough is going to sit for awhile.

Yesterday one of the local guys here in Tampa talked about the trough and how he expected it to stay is place.

Things can certainly change but for now it looks good.
767. Murko
CycloneOz: That's what I did, and am still trying to do, but it just takes me back to the same looking page, albeit with a slightly different url, without downloading the file. Is it just me?
768. IKE
You have a good to likely chance of rain all week in Tampa...same here in the panhandle...lots of rain in the gulf and some south of you.
ok tropic i am not trying to pick on anyone actually i was trying to do exactly what your trying to do: stop the fighting.
Maverick, you have mail.
what do you mean by selling it? he was giving it to other people or he was trying to make a profit out of it? either one is terrible.
Boy I was wrong on our invest yesterday. I thought, if you did not read my post the invest would develop into a td. Fornately I am not getting paid for this. Take care and pray for surf.
new blog
CRS
ok ok nevermind the arguement. back to the tropics. in the picture dr. m. posted it looks like there are 2 lows with that wave down there by africa. i am NOT wishcasting, but just asking, does anyone see this and where is the steering pattern going to take this or these. if anyone knows or has something to say about this comment, please tell me.
hey leftovers, it wouldnt matter if you were wrong about it. take twc for example. you can be wrong about 90% of the time and get payed tons of money (compared to a teacher's salery). for any of us, we would be AWESOME at that job. oh, and why did you pick the name leftovers? no one really likes leftovers. no off.
oh and why dont you just go on the internet website for ign and look there for free? you are on the computer anyway. ok sinse we are on the topic of odd stuff has anyone taken an iq test before and remember their iq? please post it. either maveric is a kid or he has a 120 iq. oh and so my post has something about weather, it is drying out in texas.
hmm aparantley there is a free flotaing surfac low in the gom.....
no development.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-rb.html
im not calling you stupid, maveric. just letting you know. i like to state my opinion. Hello? anybody here?
does anyone know where to find a free iq test?
maverrick ar u being serious.
answer me maverrick were you the one who stole personal information on the wbesite thundercloud mentioned?
784. CJ5
97L died a quick death and no longer a low in the last wave off Africa. Looks like it will be a quiet few days. However, it appears that a well developed wave of trolls and punks are dominating much of the tropics. I hope this pattern lifts soon.

Reposting This

Posted By: NoNamePub at 2:10 PM GMT on July 23, 2007.

Did you notice the 96hr + Runs at 850 ? on GFS
Shows some development in the western Gulf.
The Water is WARM over there!
Any chances of it Actually happening?
i just took an iq test. it didnt ask my age and it didnt let me give different information than the last time i took one.
tru dat cj5
deep low south of greenland on the move finally signal the anticapated shift in pattern by mid next week which depends on dev of the system south of lower grt lakes as it tracks ne ward wave off of africa is getting the shit sucked out of it by itcz 97l all but a memory another 6 to 10 days of quiet as we approach peak season in next couple of weeks