WunderBlog Archive » Category 6™

Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.

Bermuda eyes a weak Colin; new extreme heat record for Belarus

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 4:19 PM GMT on August 07, 2010

Tropical Storm Colin is taking aim at Bermuda, and could bring tropical storm force winds to the island tonight. Colin continues to pass through an unfavorable environment for development, as the storm is being affected by dry being pumped in from an upper-level low pressure system to the west. Wind shear has dropped to about 10 knots, but Colin has not yet been able to take advantage of the low shear. Recent satellite imagery shows that Colin is a disorganized system, with limited heavy thunderstorm activity. What few intense thunderstorms Colin has have been pushed over to the east side of the storm by yesterday's high wind shear, and the rains from these thunderstorms can be seen approaching Bermuda on Bermuda radar.

Forecast for Colin
The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that wind shear will remain low to moderate today as Colin makes its closest pass by Bermuda. This may allow the storm to intensify to a 50 mph tropical storm before it moves past Bermuda early Sunday morning. The shear will increase again on Sunday as Colin heads out to sea, and it is unlikely that the storm will ever attain hurricane status.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Colin.

93L
A tropical wave (Invest 93) about 850 miles west of the Cape Verdes Islands off the coast of Africa is moving northwest at 10 mph. Wind shear is a moderate 10 knots, and is expected to stay in the moderate range the next five days. NHC is giving a 40% chance of this disturbance developing into a tropical depression by Monday morning. The GFS model shows some weak development of 93L occurring early next week. This storm will probably only be a concern to shipping interests. There are no other areas of concern the models are showing for the next seven days.

Belarus records its hottest temperature in history
The European nation of Belarus, on the western border of Russia, recorded its hottest temperature in history yesterday, August 6, when the mercury hit 38.7°C (101.7°F) in Gorky. The previous record was 38.0°C (100.4°F) set at Vasiliyevichy on Aug. 20, 1946.

The Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 chokes Moscow with smoke for a second day
Smoke from wildfires caused by the worst heat wave in Russia's history have choked Moscow for a second straight day today, bringing air pollution levels to six times the safe mark and forcing cancellation of dozens of flights. Visibilities dropped as low as 325 meters at Moscow's airport today, as temperatures hit 97°F (36°C). The past 25 days in a row have exceeded 30°C (86°F) in Moscow, and there is no relief in sight--the latest forecast for Moscow calls for high temperatures near 100°F (37.8°C) for the majority of the coming week. As I reported in yesterday's post, the number of deaths in Moscow in July 2010 was about 5,000 more than in July 2009, suggesting that the heat wave has been responsible for thousands of deaths in Moscow alone. I would expect that by the time the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 is over, the number of premature deaths caused by the heat wave will approach or exceed the 40,000 who died in the 2003 European Heat Wave. As seen in Figure 2, the Russian heat wave of this year is more intense and affects a wider region than the great 2003 heat wave, though the population affected by the two heat waves is probably similar.


Figure 2. A comparison of temperature anomalies for August 2003, the peak of the great European heat wave of that year (left), with July temperature anomalies from the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 (right). This year's heat wave in Russia is more intense and covers a wider area of Europe than the 2003 heat wave. The 2003 heat wave caused approximately 40,000 premature deaths. Image credit: NOAA/ESRL.

Commentary
Belarus' new all-time extreme heat record gives the year 2010 the most national extreme heat records for a single year--seventeen. These nations comprise 19% of the total land area of Earth. This is the largest area of Earth's surface to experience all-time record high temperatures in any single year in the historical record. Looking back at the past decade, which was the hottest decade in the historical record, Seventy-five countries set extreme hottest temperature records (33% of all countries.) For comparison, fifteen countries set extreme coldest temperature records over the past ten years (6% of all countries). My source for extreme weather records is the excellent book Extreme Weather by Chris Burt. His new updates (not yet published) remove a number of old disputed records.

Keep in mind that the matter of determining extreme records is very difficult, and it is often a judgment call as to whether an old record is reliable or not. For example, one of 2007's fifteen extreme hottest temperature records is for the U.S.--the 129°F recorded at Death Valley that year. Most weather record books list 1913 as the year the hottest temperature in the U.S. occurred, when Greenland Ranch in Death Valley hit 134°F. However, as explained in a recent Weatherwise article, that record is questionable, since it occurred during a sandstorm when hot sand may have wedged against the thermometer, artificially inflating the temperature. Mr. Burt's list of 225 countries with extreme heat records includes islands that are not independent countries, such as Puerto Rico and Greenland. I thank Mr. Burt and weather record researchers Maximiliano Herrera and Howard Rainford for their assistance identifying this year's new extreme temperature records.

Earth has now seen four consecutive months with its warmest temperature on record, and the first half of 2010 was the warmest such 6-month period in the planet's history. It is not a surprise that many all-time extreme heat records are being shattered when the planet as a whole is so warm. Global warming "loads the dice" to favor extreme heat events unprecedented in recorded history.

National heat records set in 2010
Belarus, on the western border of Russia, recorded its hottest temperature in history on Saturday, August 7, when the mercury hit 38.9°C (102°F) in Gomel. This broke the all-time record for extreme heat set just one day before, the 38.7°C (101.7°F) recorded in Gorky. Prior to 2010, the hottest temperature ever recorded in Belarus was the 38.0°C (100.4°F) in Vasiliyevichy on Aug. 20, 1946.

Ukraine tied its record for hottest temperature in its history when the mercury hit 41.3°C (106.3°F) at Lukhansk on August 1, 2010. Ukraine also reached 41.3°C on July 20 and 21, 2007, at Voznesensk.

Cyprus recorded its hottest temperature in its history on August 1, 2010 when the mercury hit 46.6°C (115.9°F) at Lefconica. The old record for Cyprus was 44.4°C (111.9°F) at Lefkosia in August 1956. An older record of 46.6°C from July 1888 was reported from Nicosia, but is of questionable reliability.

Finland recorded its hottest temperature on July 29, 2010, when the mercury hit 99°F (37.2°C) at Joensuu. The old (undisputed) record was 95°F (35°C) at Jyvaskyla on July 9, 1914.

Qatar had its hottest temperature in history on July 14, 2010, when the mercury hit 50.4°C (122.7°F) at Doha Airport.

Russia had its hottest temperature in history on July 11, when the mercury rose to 44.0°C (111.2°F) in Yashkul, Kalmykia Republic, in the European portion of Russia near the Kazakhstan border. The previous hottest temperature in Russia (not including the former Soviet republics) was the 43.8°C (110.8°F) reading measured at Alexander Gaj, Kalmykia Republic, on August 6, 1940. The remarkable heat in Russia this year has not been limited just to the European portion of the country--the Asian portion of Russia also recorded its hottest temperature in history this year, a 42.7°C (108.9°F) reading at Kara, in the Chita Republic on June 24. The 42.3°C (108.1°F) reading on June 25 at Belogorsk, near the Amur River border with China, also beat the old record for the Asian portion of Russia. The previous record for the Asian portion of Russia was 41.7°C (107.1°F) at Aksha on July 21, 2004.

Sudan recorded its hottest temperature in its history on June 25 when the mercury rose to 49.6°C (121.3°F) at Dongola. The previous record was 49.5°C (121.1°F) set in July 1987 in Aba Hamed.

Niger tied its record for hottest day in history on June 22, 2010, when the temperature reached 47.1°C (116.8°F) at Bilma. That record stood for just one day, as Bilma broke the record again on June 23, when the mercury topped out at 48.2°C (118.8°F). The previous record was 47.1°C on May 24, 1998, also at Bilma.

Saudi Arabia had its hottest temperature ever on June 22, 2010, with a reading of 52.0°C (125.6°F) in Jeddah, the second largest city in Saudi Arabia. The previous record was 51.7°C (125.1°F), at Abqaiq, date unknown. The record heat was accompanied by a sandstorm, which caused eight power plants to go offline, resulting in blackouts to several Saudi cities.

Chad had its hottest day in history on June 22, 2010, when the temperature reached 47.6°C (117.7°F) at Faya. The previous record was 47.4°C (117.3°F) at Faya on June 3 and June 9, 1961.

Kuwait recorded its hottest temperature in history on June 15 in Abdaly, according to the Kuwait Met office. The mercury hit 52.6°C (126.7°F). Kuwait's previous all-time hottest temperature was 51.9°C (125.4°F), on July 27,2007, at Abdaly. Temperatures reached 51°C (123.8°F) in the capital of Kuwait City on June 15, 2010.

Iraq had its hottest day in history on June 14, 2010, when the mercury hit 52.0°C (125.6°F) in Basra. Iraq's previous record was 51.7°C (125.1°F) set August 8, 1937, in Ash Shu'aybah.

Pakistan had its hottest temperature in history on May 26, when the mercury hit an astonishing 53.5°C (128.3°F) at the town of MohenjuDaro, according to the Pakistani Meteorological Department. While this temperature reading must be reviewed by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) for authenticity, not only is the 128.3°F reading the hottest temperature ever recorded in Pakistan, it is the hottest reliably measured temperature ever recorded on the continent of Asia.

Myanmar (Burma) had its hottest temperature in its recorded history on May 12, when the mercury hit 47°C (116.6°F) in Myinmu, according to the Myanmar Department of Meteorology and Hydrology. Myanmar's previous hottest temperature was 45.8°C (114.4°F) at Minbu, Magwe division on May 9, 1998. According to Chris Burt, author of the authoritative weather records book Extreme Weather, the 47°C measured this year is the hottest temperature in Southeast Asia history.

Ascention Island (St. Helena, a U.K. Territory) had its hottest temperature in history on March 25, 2010, when the mercury hit 34.9°C (94.8°C) at Georgetown. The previous record was 34.0°C (93.2°F) at Georgetown in April 2003, exact day unknown.

The Solomon Islands had their hottest temperature in history on February 1, 2010, when the mercury hit 36.1°C (97°F) at Lata Nendo (Ndeni). The previous record for Solomon Islands was 35.6°C (96.0°F) at Honaiara, date unknown.

Colombia had its hottest temperature in history on January 24, 2010, when Puerto Salgar hit 42.3°C (108°F). The previous record was 42.0°C (107.6°F) at El Salto in March 1988 (exact day unknown).

National cold records set in 2010
One nation has set a record for its coldest temperature in history in 2010. Guinea had its coldest temperature in history in January 9, 2010, when the mercury hit 1.4°C (34.5°F) at Mali-ville in the Labe region.

Next post
I'll have an update Sunday. There are many important weather stories I've neglected to cover of late, such as the floods in Pakistan, which I hope to talk about in the coming week.

Jeff Masters
heavy smog from forest fires near Moscow
heavy smog from forest fires near Moscow

Heat Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting gordydunnot:
Sorry Sammy, I actually like most of your post just a small jab you know.Although I know it must be very difficult to find anyone to hang out with. I did like your postings last night as Bruce Lee would say you must punch or post with emotional content. Keep up the good work.


Thank you

I wish i could Change My Handle Name...

Im Sure alot more People would take me seriously

I Joined in the Summer of 2006 i Belive. But was Lurking when the Blog first came out.


Lets Take a Poll Who takes me Seriously with a Name like:Sammywammybamy?

A - Yes
B - No
C - Maybe
Quoting blsealevel:

((Noooowayyy))
That LOOP does look kind of tight.
I used to live in east boca in "Windward" complex. but have been in key west for 15+ years I am no longer about where you live/what you drive/what you club you belong to..... I am & will always be a part of the key west community, i live.work/play here i am a part of the organism that makes up our city, i will die protecting & saving any & all citizens snowbirds or conch we are the "CONCH REPLUBIC"
Quoting hunkerdown:
no Cuban blood in me at all but they make some damn awesome food, and if you visit the true Cuban establishments you better know what and how to order. Its like going to Philly and getting a cheesesteak, if you don't know how to order it they'll send you to the back of the line...oh, and I guess I'll have to take a wiz wid.
My personal favorite is Versailles. But that's just me. Ok, enough of the good food talk...back to the tropics.
Quoting sammywammybamy:


Thank you

I wish i could Change My Handle Name...

Im Sure alot more People would take me seriously

I Joined in the Summer of 2006 i Belive. But was Lurking when the Blog first came out.


Lets Take a Poll Who takes me Seriously with a Name like:Sammywammybamy?

A - Yes
B - No
C - Maybe


A --- You're not on my ignore list LOL
,
Quoting CybrTeddy:


ECMWF is indeed showing 2 storms, 240 hours out a second system just south of the Florida Panhandle. 999 mb.

Could be extra-tropical.


looks to me like it is one storm, watch the loop
"A"
Quoting natureobs:
Hi there,

Lurker from Boca checking in. Nice to see others from here. I was at the movies when this all happened. Thanks for the video.


Hello.

Lol.

A Women got Hurt when she walked outside when the tornado was right above her..

Guess She didnt hear the part "GET TO THE INTERIOR OF YOUR HOME"
Quoting sammywammybamy:
Everyone in WPB County WATCH NEWS CHANNEL 5.

TORNADO DAMAGE ON TV...

Just saw it and kept flipping through all the local news channels. Saw a couple of videos people caught of the tornado. A day to remember.
1012. JLPR2
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

Why are you guys speaking Spanish? This blog is getting weirder every day.


LOL!
I have to compliment your English and punctuation, it's awesome, by your age I wasn't as good. :)

Hiya everyone! :D
Quoting Hurricanes101:


looks to me like it is one storm, watch the loop
May I have the link please?TIA
Quoting PanhandleChuck:


A --- You're not on my ignore list LOL


LOL. Thank you PanhandleChuck and Ahcmed.
Quoting sammywammybamy:


LOL. Thank you PanhandleChuck and Ahcmed.


SILENCE!!!!!!
Sammy who cares what people think, post what you believe as Storm would say either validate what you say, or learn from your mistakes. My God look how much criticism the Doc takes he still post ,all though I bet he has to bite his tongue 90% of the time.
A.
Whats wrong with your name?
1019. aquak9
rabo encendido!!!

ya'll remember a place called King Yayo's? aww heck ya'll are all probably too young...
SUBJECT: "Estelle" Intensifies Further

At 3:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Estelle (994 hPa) located at 17.3N 109.4W or 310 NM west southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico has sustained winds of 55 knots with gusts of 65 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 7 knots.

Storm Force Winds
==================
75 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
======================
24 hrs: 17.5N 111.3W - 55 knots (Tropical Cyclone)
48 hrs: 17.5N 113.1W - 45 knots (Tropical Cyclone)
72 hrs: 17.5N 114.0W - 35 knots (Tropical Cyclone)
1021. aquak9
oh and sammy? I've seen ya here and watched ya grow up. You're A-Ok in my book.
Hey Aqua how are you tonight?
Found this Picture of the Boca Tornado.

Local News Reports 2-3+ Fell in 30 Minutes.



1024. xcool
lets hope not.
Can someone tell me where I can find a satellite picture of TS Estelle?
1027. JLPR2
Colin squeezing through two ULLs

Good night everyone!

Current ACE (Updated August 7, 2010 -- 11PM EDT)

1. Alex: 6.78
2. Colin: 1.82
3. Bonnie: 0.37
Quoting sammywammybamy:
Found this Picture of the Boca Tornado.

Local News Reports 2-3+ Fell in 30 Minutes.




Is that on the highway?
Quoting mrsalagranny:
May I have the link please?TIA
http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models/euro/12zeurotropical850mbVortSLP_loop.htmlLink
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:


How do you post loops/videos?
Quoting Hurricanes12:
Can someone tell me where I can find a satellite picture of TS Estelle?


Floater page
Quoting aquak9:
oh and sammy? I've seen ya here and watched ya grow up. You're A-Ok in my book.


Thank You, That Means Alot.

Quoting gordydunnot:
Sammy who cares what people think, post what you believe as Storm would say either validate what you say, or learn from your mistakes. My God look how much criticism the Doc takes he still post ,all though I bet he has to bite his tongue 90% of the time.


Agreed. Thank You.

Quoting StormFreakyisher:
A.
Whats wrong with your name?


Its Kind Of Childish, But its Okay. Its Something i can Live with lol.


-----

Ive Been saving up for a Personal Weather Station / Camera

So I Can Send Video and Images to Here.

During the Next Hurricane.

Anyone Have Any Recomendations.

Under $200 Dollars.

1035. aquak9
hi granny. Hoping, hoping for big churny waves at the beach here tomorrow, so I can find mny shark's teeth and fossils.
1036. aquak9
sammy- I do not know about a camera but for that price I would highly recommned the TyconPower by Honeywell. The Davis Vantage Vue is awesome, but I think it's outta your price range.

maybe invest 95L ON LAND..look at this wave on land wow.
1039. xcool



Quoting hunkerdown:
I keel you


classic!!!
Wow, the blog slowed down extremely, lol.
Quoting aquak9:
hi granny. Hoping, hoping for big churny waves at the beach here tomorrow, so I can find mny shark's teeth and fossils.
Please be careful out there.I am tooscared of waves to go surfing.LOL!!!!!!!!!!
look at the wave at 32 west wow i see a spin there
Quoting aquak9:
sammy- I do not know about a camera but for that price I would highly recommned the TyconPower by Honeywell. The Davis Vantage Vue is awesome, but I think it's outta your price range.

My hubby owns RainmanWeather. We are an authorized WeatherUnderground vendor. You can contact him through the site, and probably get the best deal ever. Tell him who you are, from WU.

We will work with you and get the best price out there.


Thank You.

Im Looking into it right now.
1045. aquak9
absolutely no surfing, granny! not even water up to my knees. Just to the shoreline to look for shark teeth and fossils where they've washed up.

heavy churning waves bring many treasures to my local beach. :)
1046. xcool
yea dead
Quoting aquak9:
absolutely no surfing, granny! not even water up to my knees. Just to the shoreline to look for shark teeth and fossils where they've washed up.

heavy churning waves bring many treasures to my local beach. :)
Sounds like fun to me.I am watching what the models are forecasting for next week real close.
tropical storm colin moving slow

11:00 PM AST Sat Aug 7
Location: 29.7°N 65.6°W
Max sustained: 40 mph
Moving: NNE at 3 mph
Min pressure: 1012 mb
1049. 7544
hi all just got on trying to read back so far is that blob moving south over fla

and is 93l starting to head west now thanks alot

1050. aquak9
TP 1080 WC is the TyconPower model, Sammy. It goes for around $139.

We've had one up with a Vantage Vue, and an older Davis Pro for over a year. We've been very happy with the TyconPower's durability and dependability compared to the Davis products. It's what Skyepony has, we sold it to her. :)
good bye 92L


noaa re move it
1052. aquak9
7544- 93L may try to pull a little west but don't worry, it'll yank hard right soon enough.

Granny, you and me both. First it was the clouds in my area, tell-tale signs of increased vorticity. I didn't say anything. Then hubby REALLY starts complaining about his knee. So I made him go read the 2pm outta NHC, and we both had to raise an eyebrow.

It's a Motrin vs low pressure weekend here.
Quoting aquak9:
7544- 93L may try to pull a little west but don't worry, it'll yank hard right soon enough.

Granny, you and me both. First it was the clouds in my area, tell-tale signs of increased vorticity. I didn't say anything. Then hubby REALLY starts complaining about his knee. So I made him go read the 2pm outta NHC, and we both had to raise an eyebrow.

It's a Motrin vs low pressure weekend here.
I hear ya.I will keep the Motrin going as well.Ill have a headache watching this one.What is your thinking on it right now?
Quoting aquak9:
TP 1080 WC is the TyconPower model, Sammy. It goes for around $139.

We've had one up with a Vantage Vue, and an older Davis Pro for over a year. We've been very happy with the TyconPower's durability and dependability compared to the Davis products. It's what Skyepony has, we sold it to her. :)


I Read about the Features.

Wind Direction
Rain Gauge
Wind Speed (Whats the Max Speed it can Record?)

Am i missing anything?

And Where Can i mount it.
1055. bird72
Dr. Master, no more global warming, please. At least until hurricane season end.:) Just a clarification, those temperature records are for the known history.:)
RIP
Colin
August 2 - 7, 2010
1057. xcool
bird72 .i agree
1058. xcool
1059. smuldy
Quoting aquak9:
7544- 93L may try to pull a little west but don't worry, it'll yank hard right soon enough.

Granny, you and me both. First it was the clouds in my area, tell-tale signs of increased vorticity. I didn't say anything. Then hubby REALLY starts complaining about his knee. So I made him go read the 2pm outta NHC, and we both had to raise an eyebrow.

It's a Motrin vs low pressure weekend here.
StormW posted earlier that the ridge is building so quickly over the Atlantic that 93w may bare watching
How do you contact Admin? New virus threat just popped up
1061. xcool



xcool
Quoting F4PHANTOM:
How do you contact Admin? New virus threat just popped up


If its just that ad-ware thing, ignore it.
1063. aquak9
granny, way too far out. Is but a thought that a few of the models have been trending at.

i do agree on this: there does seem to be a general dropping of pressure, we got the tail end trying to pull thru the area, and m'hubby's knee is hurting. I just hope it brings me some rain.

sammy- there's a spec sheet on the site, looks to be around 100 mph for measuring, 125 for station survivability. Are you on the RainmanWeather site? sorry but I am not allowed to link it here. Needs to be mounted away from trees obviously, up on a roof preferably.
Well off to bed.Work tomorrow.Have a good night Aqua.
Quoting MrstormX:


If its just that ad-ware thing, ignore.
It's an embedded link to a malicious site.
1067. aquak9
Quoting smuldy:
StormW posted earlier that the ridge is building so quickly over the Atlantic that 93w may bare watching


you're right, they always bear watching till it's raining in Ireland as far as I'm concerned. Still think we got at least a week, ten days a'fore there 's any real CONUS concerns greater than a TD, TS max.
Quoting F4PHANTOM:
It's an embedded link to a malicious site.


Does it say something about Iframer?
1069. xcool
GFS is now on board with the golf storm.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/00/images/gfs_ten_048l.gif
1071. xcool
GFS
now on board with gom storms to
1072. aquak9
Quoting F4PHANTOM:
It's an embedded link to a malicious site.


they are at WunderBlogAdmin, you can use your mail feature at the top. Let them know of the problematic post.

Quoting aquak9:
granny, way too far out. Is but a thought that a few of the models have been trending at.

i do agree on this: there does seem to be a general dropping of pressure, we got the tail end trying to pull thru the area, and m'hubby's knee is hurting. I just hope it brings me some rain.

sammy- there's a spec sheet on the site, looks to be around 100 mph for measuring, 125 for station survivability. Are you on the RainmanWeather site? sorry but I am not allowed to link it here. Needs to be mounted away from trees obviously, up on a roof preferably.


Thanks For Answering my Questions.

I Appreciate It
New RUC Model run shoes a GOM storm also!

Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #7
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ESTER
10:30 AM PhST August 8 2010
=============================================

Tropical Depression ESTER has accelerated as it continues to move towards the southern islands of Japan.

At 10:00 AM PhST, Tropical Depression Ester located at 22.4°N 124.8°E or 340 km northeast of Basco, Batanes has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as moving north northeast at 8 knots.

Signal Warning #1
=================

Luzon Region
-------------
1.Batanes Group of Islands
2.Babuyan Island
3.Calayan Islands

Additional Information
======================
Public Storm Signal elsewhere now lowered.

Tropical Depression "Ester" will continue to enhance the Southwest Monsoon and bring rains over Luzon and Visayas.

Residents living in low lying and mountainous areas under signal # 1 and areas over the Western sections of Central and Southern Luzon and Western Visayas are alerted against possible flashfloods and landslides.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 5 PM today.
Quoting aquak9:


you're right, they always bear watching till it's raining in Ireland as far as I'm concerned. Still think we got at least a week, ten days a'fore there 's any real CONUS concerns greater than a TD, TS max.


With Upward MJO ( More Activity in Basin)

And Negative NAO ( More Westwardtracks)

And Starting the Climb to the Peak of the Season

I Belive at least 2-3 more Storms will make Landfall on the United States.

----

To All:

Now is a Good Time to be Prepared.

Vist Patrap's Blog

He has Good Links.
1077. xcool
hmm
1078. aquak9
good night, sammy and everyone.

Let us know if we can help you in any way, sammy. :)
1079. xcool
Quoting xcool:
GFS
now on board with gom storms to
Just got on here and saw some of your posts about this GOM storm. When are we talking about this possibly going on, how soon? TIA
1081. smuldy
Quoting aquak9:


you're right, they always bear watching till it's raining in Ireland as far as I'm concerned. Still think we got at least a week, ten days a'fore there 's any real CONUS concerns greater than a TD, TS max.
absolutely agree on the more or less 10 day part from what ive read
1082. xcool
KATRINABILOXIGIRL .10aug maybe
Anyone Find this Intresting

The 2000 Decade:

2000-2003 Carolina's Storms , 2004-2005 Florida Storms, 2005-2008 Gulf Coast Storms, 2009 Fish Storms

2010 ?
Quoting xcool:
KATRINABILOXIGIRL .10aug maybe
Thank you. Appreciate the info...
1086. Patrap
GOM IR Loop

1087. xcool
KATRINABILOXIGIRL welcome :)
1088. xcool
Funkadelic haha
Quoting Funkadelic:
Hey gang couldnt resist, but Here is Jasoniscool!! Our wonderfeul wunderground blogger:)



This Man has NO LIFE... LOL... Tell him to go outside...

1090. xcool
Quoting Patrap:
GOM IR Loop



look in the west coast of the yucatan penninsula... 92l has a well defined center... wonder how long its had it
Nothing much for Bermuda from weakening Colin, perhaps a shower or two , more or less the same afternoon showers that Bori left in Florida. Dr. Master even though I know you're above all of those,like bird72 among others that dislike your GW articles, the majority of us regulars here and people from other countries that lurke on this blog appreciate your concern, and share your views about GW and the protection of our emvironment. Keep your great work Doc!
1093. BDAwx
g'night!
Bad post
Quoting sammywammybamy:


This Man has NO LIFE... LOL... Tell him to go outside...



Lol you should check out his channel:)

Anyway, how is Pre-94L cooking?
1096. aquak9
sammy- God made us all different. I actually enjoy seeing him happy. Wish more people could be that happy, that easily.

grown-ups can be a hateful bunch. I'll take his silly laughter, any day.

Now really I'm gone
What Kind of Man Video tapes himself Drinking Water...

Allo, allo, allo!

I was lying there fast asleep, minding my own business, when WHAM!

the power went out. Woke me right up when the AC stopped cooling.... lol

But looking at this imagery I'm not sure why. I'm hearing thunder in the distance, but not sure it's close enough for a lightning strike to cause an outage...

Good evening everyone! How are the tropics fairing this evening?
BTW, how did Colin get back down off Jacksonville Beach????

LOL....
Quoting aquak9:
sammy- God made us all different. I actually enjoy seeing him happy. Wish more people could be that happy, that easily.

grown-ups can be a hateful bunch. I'll take his silly laughter, any day.

Now really I'm gone


He Seems like a Good Man.
Quoting texascoastres:
Good evening everyone! How are the tropics fairing this evening?



the tropics are drunk
Quoting Tazmanian:



the tropics are drunk


Agreed LOL
Quoting Tazmanian:



the tropics are drunk


it is sat night!!!
Thanks Taz! wish I was!
your welcome
1103...bah ha ha!!!
1110. xcool


i dont think i xcools saw my commet
1112. xcool
Tazmanian ?
Quoting xcool:
Tazmanian ?



the commet i made be low

the tropics are drunk
Quoting aquak9:
TP 1080 WC is the TyconPower model, Sammy. It goes for around $139.

We've had one up with a Vantage Vue, and an older Davis Pro for over a year. We've been very happy with the TyconPower's durability and dependability compared to the Davis products. It's what Skyepony has, we sold it to her. :)
Ah, youse guys are the ones I been thinking about.... I need to wundermail u in a minute....

I hope u guys are getting "enough rain" out of this forming low....
ok,ok don't get shy on my account. I'll have 1 for a nightcap!
1116. gator23
Quoting sammywammybamy:


LOL!

he is nuts! watch the other videos hes posted
Quoting aquak9:
7544- 93L may try to pull a little west but don't worry, it'll yank hard right soon enough.

Granny, you and me both. First it was the clouds in my area, tell-tale signs of increased vorticity. I didn't say anything. Then hubby REALLY starts complaining about his knee. So I made him go read the 2pm outta NHC, and we both had to raise an eyebrow.

It's a Motrin vs low pressure weekend here.
Hmmm.... I was kinda expecting that Wward movement from the stuff I was looking at this morning - I mean Saturday - but with that low N of us pulling west, I'm not sure how quickly 93L will pull north again. I'm just amazed at how much latitude it's gained since yesterday ....

And our little pre-94L seems to be spinning away along the ITCZ.... this could be the making of an interesting week.
1118. xcool
lol yea
1119. xcool



new cmc






ukmet
sammy, is somebody bugging u? We know u r cool, so don't let anybody bring u down....

BTW, r we going for a tropics chat record again this year???
1122. JLPR2
93L & the disturbance that could become 94L, but honestly, it looked better last night.

good night(morning) check back tomorrow, be safe everyone!
1124. xcool
;0
1125. xcool
cmc UKMET GFS nam ECMWF ngp model support


Possible tropical development

gom storms.
1126. xcool
93L looks good well on its way

1128. xcool



1129. xcool



anyway anyway cmc
1130. EricSFL
Hey xcool. Would the storm (according to the models) form east or west of Florida? I do not understand.
1131. xcool
EricSFL hey.lots model support now.yes


As always, timing timing


1 Million Fish Dead in Bolivian Ecological Disaster

(3 Aug. 2010 - Update: The number of dead fish and other water-dependent wildlife has increased to about 6 million.)

----------

Over 1 million fish and thousands of alligators, turtles, dolphins and other river wildlife are floating dead in numerous Bolivian rivers in the three eastern/southern departments of Santa Cruz, Beni and Tarija. The extreme cold front that hit Bolivia in mid-July caused water temperatures to dip below the minimum temperatures river life can tolerate. As a consequence, rivers, lakes, lagoons and fisheries are brimming with decomposing fish and other creatures.

Unprecedented: Nothing like this has ever been seen in this magnitude in Bolivia. Inhabitants of riverside communities report the smell is nauseating and can be detected as far as a kilometer away from river banks. River communities, whose livelihoods depend on fishing, fear they'll run out of food and will have nothing to sell. Authorities are concerned there will be a shortage of fish in markets and are more concerned by possible threats to public health, especially in communities that also use river water for bathing and drinking, but also fear contaminated or decaying fish may end up in market stalls. They've begun a campaign to ensure market vendors and the public know how to tell the difference between fresh and unhealthy fish.

In university fish ponds and commercial fisheries the losses are also catastrophic.
look what happern Tropical Storm Colin NO MORE T.STORM TO IT.
1135. EricSFL
Jasoniscoolman I see you're getting fame from your video pranks.
1136. IKE
...COLIN MOVING SLOWLY...BARELY A TROPICAL STORM...
2:00 AM AST Sun Aug 8
Location: 29.8°N 65.6°W
Max sustained: 40 mph
Moving: NNE at 3 mph
Min pressure: 1012 mb

If this is a tropical storm, I'm blind NHC....come on.....

Quoting Orcasystems:
1 Million Fish Dead in Bolivian Ecological Disaster

(3 Aug. 2010 - Update: The number of dead fish and other water-dependent wildlife has increased to about 6 million.)

----------

Over 1 million fish and thousands of alligators, turtles, dolphins and other river wildlife are floating dead in numerous Bolivian rivers in the three eastern/southern departments of Santa Cruz, Beni and Tarija. The extreme cold front that hit Bolivia in mid-July caused water temperatures to dip below the minimum temperatures river life can tolerate. As a consequence, rivers, lakes, lagoons and fisheries are brimming with decomposing fish and other creatures.

Unprecedented: Nothing like this has ever been seen in this magnitude in Bolivia. Inhabitants of riverside communities report the smell is nauseating and can be detected as far as a kilometer away from river banks. River communities, whose livelihoods depend on fishing, fear they'll run out of food and will have nothing to sell. Authorities are concerned there will be a shortage of fish in markets and are more concerned by possible threats to public health, especially in communities that also use river water for bathing and drinking, but also fear contaminated or decaying fish may end up in market stalls. They've begun a campaign to ensure market vendors and the public know how to tell the difference between fresh and unhealthy fish.

In university fish ponds and commercial fisheries the losses are also catastrophic.
all the beginnings of the end
1138. xcool
COLIN doom
basin is going quiet for a bit
...COLIN IS NOT A TROPICAL STORM ANYMORE ITS HADS NO MORE T.STORM TO IT. NO MORE INVENT 92L WE HAD LOTS OF INVESTS THIS YEAR WITH NO TROPICAL STORMS THIS YEAR..
1141. EricSFL
Very unfortunate situation for the people of Bolivia.
Quoting IKE:
...COLIN MOVING SLOWLY...BARELY A TROPICAL STORM...
2:00 AM AST Sun Aug 8
Location: 29.8°N 65.6°W
Max sustained: 40 mph
Moving: NNE at 3 mph
Min pressure: 1012 mb

If this is a tropical storm, I'm blind NHC....come on.....



Well your not blind but heres why:
It still has a possible closed circulation... and models continue to show it strengthening... so if they issue the last adv and then it ramps up again it wont look good.
Quoting wfyweather:


Well your not blind but heres why:
It still has a possible closed circulation... and models continue to show it strengthening... so if they issue the last adv and then it ramps up again it wont look good.


I think it's more because surface winds haven't had time to really die down yet, because the convection hasn't been terribly shallow for very long.
invest 93L needs more t.storms with it or this invest die out to like invest 92L
They must be giving us something good in the two... and they should.... because 93L looks like a depression
000
ABNT20 KNHC 080545
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SUN AUG 8 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM COLIN...LOCATED ABOUT 185 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA.

SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED ABOUT
1100 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS HAS CHANGED
LITTLE OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
STILL APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST
AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED IN ASSOCIATION WITH
A TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED DUE TO PROXIMITY TO LAND AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 15 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR
0 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
For BOCA RATON, FL: 10-20 MPH winds and a 70% chance of thunderstorms on August 10, TWC predicted. Could this be from Future Invest 94L or Earl?
all the effects of the imbalances around us
Quoting KoritheMan:


I think it's more because surface winds haven't had time to really die down yet, because the convection hasn't been terribly shallow for very long.


Well not terribly shallow... but stilll... pretty dern shallow for a while now... I mean... the last time I saw reds on the avn was early this morning... it hasnt done much since.... Ive been wondering if this thing had ts winds since yesterday
still the same ugh

the nhc most be blind


000
ABNT20 KNHC 080545
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SUN AUG 8 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM COLIN...LOCATED ABOUT 185 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA.

SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED ABOUT
1100 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS HAS CHANGED
LITTLE OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
STILL APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST
AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED IN ASSOCIATION WITH
A TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED DUE TO PROXIMITY TO LAND AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 15 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR
0 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

\meano for the nhc WAKE UP
I mean I know there discussion is based on data thats a few hours old.. but i would have gone with at least 70%... maybe im so tired i cant think straight... but to me 93L looks like a depression.
Quoting wfyweather:


Well not terribly shallow... but stilll... pretty dern shallow for a while now... I mean... the last time I saw reds on the avn was early this morning... it hasnt done much since.... Ive been wondering if this thing had ts winds since yesterday


Well, as far as I know, recon has been consistently reporting them, albeit barely, for the last 24 hours, despite the relatively shallow convection.
1154. IKE
Quoting hurricaneben:
For BOCA RATON, FL: 10-20 MPH winds and a 70% chance of thunderstorms on August 10, TWC predicted. Could this be from Future Invest 94L or Earl?


Earl? When have we had the D storm? 93L is not firing on all cylinders either.....



1155. EricSFL
I still don't get why the area southeast of 93L did not get at least a 0% chance...
Quoting wfyweather:
I mean I know there discussion is based on data thats a few hours old.. but i would have gone with at least 70%... maybe im so tired i cant think straight... but to me 93L looks like a depression.


Looking at low cloud motions on satellite imagery, I don't think it has a closed surface circulation. Even if it does, convection is shallow and not persistent.
1157. xcool
Quoting EricSFL:
I still don't get why the area southest of 93L did not get at least a 0% chance...


Agree there.
Quoting IKE:


Earl? When have we had the D storm? 93L is not firing on all cylinders either.....



there reaching and grabing
Quoting KoritheMan:


Looking at low cloud motions on satellite imagery, I don't think it has a closed surface circulation. Even if it does, convection is shallow and not persistent.


I wouldn't say convection is not persistent as it has been all day, but yes the convection is shallow. The environment isn't very favorable for a lot of deep convection.
Quoting KoritheMan:


Looking at low cloud motions on satellite imagery, I don't think it has a closed surface circulation. Even if it does, convection is shallow and not persistent.


A recent ASCAT pass confirms what I just said:



That's why they haven't bumped it up. Furthermore, if it actually had a closed surface circulation, there would be more low-level convergence than is currently being observed.
000
WTNT34 KNHC 080531
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM COLIN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 17A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042010
200 AM AST SUN AUG 08 2010

...COLIN MOVING SLOWLY...BARELY A TROPICAL STORM...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.8N 65.6W
ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM SSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1012 MB...29.88 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM COLIN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.6 WEST. COLIN IS
MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 3 MPH...6 KM/HR. THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH SOME INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF COLIN IS EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR OR OVER BERMUDA LATE
TODAY OR TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME SLOW STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1012 MB...29.88 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER
BERMUDA LATER TODAY.

STORM SURGE...COLIN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE COASTAL FLOODING AND
LARGE AND BATTERING WAVES IN BERMUDA...PARTICULARLY ALONG
SOUTH-FACING BEACHES.

RAINFALL...COLIN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 1 TO 3 INCHES IN BERMUDA.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN


COLIN MOVING SLOWLY...BARELY A TROPICAL STORM... ITS NOT A TROPICAL STORM ANYMORE STILL CALL IT A TROPICAL STORM THERE ARE CRAZY.


ok heres my final thoughts of the night then Im going to bed.

Colin: I really think this could go both ways here.. So I think theres a 50/50 chance that I wake up and the last advisory has been issued. I can still easily find the center of Colin... but it is so void of convection that I just cannot see it having ts force winds.. but hey... dmax is coming up and this thing could give it another go..

ex 92l- The only reason Im mentioning ex 92l is because it revealed earlier that it had a well defined... possibly a surface low.... and it will be getting over waters tonight. I dont expect to see it develop... but it needs to be watched for building convection once it gets over the boc

93l- 93l is really looking good tonight... a nice ball of convection and some nice banding features.... i wouldnt be surprised to wake up to td 5 in the morning... but would expect it to be classified later in the day...

pre 94l- pre 94l continues to look nice and honestly... im not sure why it hasnt been highlighted yet... if it looks this good when i wake up and it still isnt highlighted... i will be extremely shocked...

night
Quoting extreme236:


I wouldn't say convection is not persistent as it has been all day, but yes the convection is shallow. The environment isn't very favorable for a lot of deep convection.


Yep. I see this getting classified TD5 tomorrow, and eventually, I foresee it becoming Danielle. But hurricane status appears unlikely at this juncture.

NMFC Norfolk Tropical Feed
Active Tropical Warnings in the Atlantic, Caribbean, or Gulf of Mexico
Tropical Storm 04L (COLIN)
By Maritime.CDO@navy.mil (NMFC CDO) from Naval Maritime Forecast Center Norfolk Virginia. Published on .
As of SUN 08 Aug 2010 06:00:02Z
2010 Storms
All Active Year

Atlantic
93L.INVEST
92L.INVEST
04L.COLIN
East Pacific
07E.ESTELLE
Central Pacific
NONE
West Pacific
05W.FIVE
Indian Ocean
NONE
Southern Hemisphere
NONE
Quoting KoritheMan:


Yep. I see this getting classified TD5 tomorrow, and eventually, I foresee it becoming Danielle. But hurricane status appears unlikely at this juncture.


Agreed. It's a wait and see situation, but I would be a bit surprised if it didn't become a tropical cyclone.
Quoting extreme236:


Agreed. It's a wait and see situation, but I would be a bit surprised if it didn't become a tropical cyclone.


93L is just practice for the real threat; pre-94L.
Quoting Funkadelic:
Hey gang couldnt resist, but Here is Jasoniscool!! Our wonderfeul wunderground blogger:)

nice, huffin on a whip cream can...
no rain with this tropical storm ..haha..
1170. EricSFL
Quoting KoritheMan:


93L is just practice for the real threat; pre-94L.


Yes. The islands need to watch this one.
Quoting EricSFL:


Yes. The islands need to watch this one.


We should hope that if it is to affect land (which is still to early to definitively say at this juncture -- though certainly, this has the best chance of any system we're tracking currently, except for the possible Gulf low), that it takes a path similar to Bonnie and Colin. That is, north of the islands. Shear will be light there, but much less so than across the Caribbean, where conditions could easily support the formation of a dangerous hurricane.
invest 93L HAVING HARD TIME GETTING T.STORM BECAUSE ITS 20 NORTH IN COOLER WATER TEMP AND DRY AIR TO THE WEST OF IT,
1173. xcool
jasoncoolman2010xx /
1174. xcool
1175. LemieT
At the moment, 2010 is looking like a season where too much of a good thing amounts to a whole lot of nothing. Seems nothing since Alex has been able to get going even in favourable conditions.
1176. xcool
:)

TROPICAL DEPRESSION DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT
POSITION : 20.8N 41.1W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 08.08.2010 20.8N 41.1W WEAK
12UTC 08.08.2010 21.2N 43.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 09.08.2010 21.5N 46.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 09.08.2010 22.6N 48.4W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 10.08.2010 23.6N 50.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 10.08.2010 24.2N 52.7W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 11.08.2010 25.0N 53.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 11.08.2010 26.9N 54.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 12.08.2010 28.7N 53.7W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 12.08.2010 30.7N 52.4W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 13.08.2010 32.7N 49.8W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 13.08.2010 34.8N 46.6W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 14.08.2010 36.4N 43.1W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT

Some of the models seem to want to keep 93L weak for a while, then really ramp it up later on.
Quoting LemieT:
At the moment, 2010 is looking like a season where too much of a good thing amounts to a whole lot of nothing. Seems nothing since Alex has been able to get going even in favourable conditions.


While I won't deny that you're correct (at least thus far), this is also one of the reasons I am so drawn to tropical meteorology. We simply don't know enough about the tropics yet. Things happen, and we don't have an adequate way to explain them; we can only theorize.
1180. xcool
EXTENDED GUIDANCE HAS DIFFERENCES IN HANDLING INVERTED
TROF/EASTERLY WAVE THAT WILL MOVE AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE LATER IN THE WEEK. TIMING FOR THIS FEATURE NEARING THE FORECAST AREA LOOKS LIKE THURSDAY NOW. STRENGTH OF THIS FEATURE IS ALSO NOT HANDLED WELL AT THIS TIME. WILL JUST MENTION CHANCE POPS...WITH A SLIGHT LOWERING OF THE HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND...AND SEE HOW LATER MODEL RUNS HANDLE THE EVOLUTION OF THIS FEATURE.

Lake Charles
1181. EricSFL
Anyone from Southwest Florida here? I just need advice on something.
looks to me like the eastern atlantic wave is on its way to becoming a depression. decent circulation and convection. should be an invest tomorrow. Its a long ways out, but im curious to see if it goes west or goes fish.
1183. Kendrix
93L or 94L when the hurricane season hits at full force, be always ready, anyway 93L and after, will heat up real fast...
1184. xcool
no FL HERE
1185. Kendrix
Quoting EricSFL:
Anyone from Southwest Florida here?Am' In Naples here... Don't forget Charlie & Wilma... :S
Colin has one thunderstorm growing, but it looks really, really sick. 93L looks more impressive at the moment. Luckily, 93L has a fishy future. 94L? Can't say.
Quoting EricSFL:
Anyone from Southwest Florida here? I just need advice on something.

Yes is St. Pete beach close enough?
1188. xcool
Power went out again.... guess I am doomed to be up tonight.... lol

The ATL basin looks remarkably quiet for 8 Aug......

Link
1190. EricSFL
Quoting WatcheroftheSkies1:

Yes is St. Pete beach close enough?


Not really, but thanks anyway!
1191. EricSFL
Kendrix you've got mail.
Hi Everyone, just an occassional blogger making an observation about the tropical Atlantic.

Everyone has been focusing on discrganized Colin and 93L that is now E-NE of the Windward Islands heading out to sea and not in any hurry of developing quickly.

The area that really has me concren for long term tropical development and potenial trouble down the road is the area SE of 93L near 12.5N and 33.5W.

This has been developing a spin during the past 6 hours and now is developing thunderstorms around the center during the past several hours. Its heading due west at a pretty good clip.

Definitely has organization and may be the player to watch in the up coming 7-10 days.
1193. xcool
Quoting EricSFL:
Anyone from Southwest Florida here?


Naples
1195. JLPR2
Quoting FtLaudman:
Hi Everyone, just an occassional blogger making an observation about the tropical Atlantic.

Everyone has been focusing on discrganized Colin and 93L that is now E-NE of the Windward Islands heading out to sea and not in any hurry of developing quickly.

The area that really has me concren for long term tropical development and potenial trouble down the road is the area SE of 93L near 12.5N and 33.5W.

This has been developing a spin during the past 6 hours and now is developing thunderstorms around the center during the past several hours. Its heading due west at a pretty good clip.

Definitely has organization and may be the player to watch in the up coming 7-10 days.


The spin has accompanied the TW since before it emerged from Africa, will be interesting to see if it manages to refire and return to the way it was yesterday(convection wise).
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
basin is going quiet for a bit
Hey, KOTG. I was just thinking the same thing. Wonder how long the quiet phase will last? until maybe Tuesday, Wednesday?
HMMMM? Keeps going farther west.




1198. JLPR2
Well I'm off to bed, goodnight fellow night owls. :D

1199. EricSFL
Quoting JLPR2:
Well I'm off to bed, goodnight fellow night owls. :D



"Two puffs with potential"
1200. xcool
JLPR2 :0
Yeah. The NHC is monitoring 3 systems in the Atlantic and they don't even recoginize perhaps this one yet.

Looking at the water vaper it is smack in the middle of a moist environment and it looks like a anticyclone on top of it. Perhaps an ideal enviroment to develop,
1202. xcool


hmmm
I think NHC is looking at "still in ITCZ" and not calling it. TAFB has a twave analysed there, but no low...
1204. EricSFL
Lack of a fifth Floater maybe? lol
1205. xcool


850 mb 5,000 feet







Quoting xcool:


850 mb 5,000 feet









Hey xcool. If yure still up. :) Looks like that blob at about 12/30 is becoming a depression already. Obvious spin and now blowing up storms at its center.
1207. xcool
i'm here
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION XX
15:00 PM JST August 8 2010
============================

SUBJECT: Tropical Depression In Sea South Of Okinawa

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (996 hPa) located at 22.9N 124.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving north at 10 knots.

Dvorak Intensity:

Forecast and Intensity
======================
24 HRS: 26.4N 125.3E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)
1209. xcool
12n.30w. need more convection & no Lower Convergence
Taking advantage of the diurnal maximum.

If this can hold together, it may have a chance at developing near 45W or so when it shakes that dry air.

1212. xcool


1213. xcool


xcool.
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Taking advantage of the diurnal maximum.

If this can hold together, it may have a chance at developing near 45W or so when it shakes that dry air.



Looks like the little guy/girl is trying. :)
1215. xcool
homelesswanderer .yeah try
1216. xcool
Quoting xcool:


If the weakness in that ridge wasn't there that would be a really scary satellite shot.
1218. xcool
homelesswanderer .i totally agree with you
1219. xcool


increasing Lower Convergence soon to be 94L
1220. xcool
From New Orleans NWS

HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK...THE BROAD AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT MORE TOWARD THE CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO...AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG A WASHED OUT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA. THIS LOW WILL THEN SLIDE TO
THE WEST BENEATH A STRONG MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE
MID-SOUTH. THIS WEAK AND BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK
THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF AND INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO BY
WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL TURN EASTERLY ON MONDAY AND REMAIN SO THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THESE WINDS SHOULD ALSO INCREASE TO AROUND 10-15 KNOTS
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW AND A HIGH OVER THE
SOUTHEAST GROWS. AS THE LOW PASSES TO THE WEST AND MOVES TOWARD
TEXAS...WINDS WILL TURN BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER...A DECENT
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW AND THE OTHER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF
WILL KEEP WINDS UP AROUND 10-15 KNOTS THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORKWEEK. SEAS WILL RISE TO AROUND 2 TO 3 FEET DUE TO THESE
PROLONGED 10-15 KNOT WINDS. 32
getting some heavy rain, gusts to abt 20 kts right now...

National Hurricane Center
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #10
TROPICAL CYCLONE ESTELLE (EP072010)
9:00 AM UTC August 8 2010
===================================

SUBJECT: "Estelle" Remains A Compact Tropical Cyclone

At 9:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Estelle (994 hPa) located at 17.8N 110.3W or 350 NM west of Manzanillo, Mexico has sustained winds of 55 knots with gusts of 65 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 9 knots.

Storm Force Winds
==================
75 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
======================
24 hrs: 18.0N 112.3W - 50 knots (Tropical Cyclone)
48 hrs: 18.0N 114.2W - 40 knots (Tropical Cyclone)
72 hrs: 17.9N 115.0W - 30 knots (Tropical Depression)
Interesting:



Look near the Cape Verde Islands.

96 hours out.
Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #8
TROPICAL STORM ESTER
4:30 PM PhST August 8 2010
=============================================

ESTER has intensified into a Storm and continues to move in a north northeast direction towards the southern islands of Japan.

At 4:00 PM PhST, Tropical Storm Ester located at 23.3°N 125.2°E or 410 km northeast of Basco, Batanes has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The storm is reported as moving north northeast at 7 knots.

Signal Warning #1
=================

Luzon Region
-------------
1.Batanes Group of Islands

Additional Information
======================
Public Storm Signal elsewhere now lowered.

Tropical Storm "Ester" will continue to enhance the Southwest Monsoon and bring rains over Luzon and Visayas and the coastal waters over these areas will be rough and dangerous to small sea crafts and fishing boats.

Residents living in low lying and mountainous areas under signal # 1 and areas over the Western sections of Luzon and Visayas are alerted against possible flash floods and landslides.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 PM today.
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION XX
18:00 PM JST August 8 2010
============================

SUBJECT: Tropical Depression In Sea South Of Okinawa

At 9:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (996 hPa) located at 23.2N 124.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving north at 10 knots.

Dvorak Intensity:

Forecast and Intensity
======================
24 HRS: 26.8N 125.8E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)
Good Morning!
1228. surfmom
Good Sunday morning - AC still down here - thank goodness for the ceiling fans - few early morning showers- but not enough to cool the house...this is one Sunday I wish it would rain all day.... mostly so I don't have to hear the whine of sweaty males.

Colin's waves arrived on the East coast of Florida yesterday - didn't make the trip to the other side -- Figured those boys would be scraping for every wave (Colin is the first 'cane wave maker of the season)

the POND DU MEXICO - is 91 degrees - bacteria soup anyone?

photo: Gulfster
1229. IKE
"Tropical storm" Colin....



This is one of the slowest mornings I've seen in the blog.
1231. tkeith
Ike, whats that"area of interest"(not official,lets clear that up) over there by you?

I see the discussion seems to bring us some good breezes next week...a little rain wouldn't hurt either.
1232. tkeith
mornin Nerd
1233. RTLSNK
73*F in Macon, Georgia this morning. 96% humidity, what we call "wet air".
Five day WU forecast for 31201: High 90's, heat index's over 100*F.
Not my favorite motorcycle riding weather. :(
Need coffee.
1234. tkeith
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
This is one of the slowest mornings I've seen in the blog.
with a couple of invests out there, I'm surprised there aren't more folks on this mornin...

I've got an early T-Time :)
Quoting surfmom:
Good Sunday morning - AC still down here - thank goodness for the ceiling fans


You have my sympathy. We live on a baot and had no A/C for 4 days last week ... uck!
1236. IKE
Quoting tkeith:
Ike, whats that"area of interest"(not official,lets clear that up) over there by you?

I see the discussion seems to bring us some good breezes next week...a little rain wouldn't hurt either.



SYNOPSIS FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO
430 AM CDT SUN AUG 08 2010

.SYNOPSIS...NORTHERN EDGE OF TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY OVER BAY OF
CAMPECHE MOVE W OF AREA LATE TODAY OR TONIGHT. RIDGE FROM
FLORIDA KEYS TO 28N96W SLOWLY DRIFTS S THROUGH WED AS WEAK
FRONTAL TROUGH PUSHES S INTO NE GULF. WEAK LOW PRES FORECAST TO
DEVELOP OFF FLORIDA COAST TUE AND DRIFT SW INTO MIDDLE GULF WED
AND TO NEAR SE LOUISIANA THU.



..........................................

I think that's a typo above where it says drift SW....I think it should have been NW from the models I've seen.

Above it says "weak low"....model runs I've seen are showing 1010mb's...or within 1 mb both ways. Maybe a TD or low-end TS.

Doesn't look very significant...for now.
Quoting tkeith:
mornin Nerd

Mornin'!
TCFA for 93L





SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
WTNT21 KNGU 080400
RMKS/1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE
WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 21.0N 41.0W TO 26.0N
49.5W WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT
JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS
TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 30 KNOTS.
METSAT IMAGERY AT 080000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS
LOCATED NEAR 21.1N 41.0W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD
AT 15 KNOTS.
2. A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED JUST 1050NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE CAPE
VERDE ISLAND IS SLOWLY MOVING NORTHWEST AT APPROXIMATELY 15 KTS.
AT 08/0000Z INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED AN AREA OF
CONVECTION THAT HAS PERSISTED FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE SAHARAN
AIR LAYER LOCATED NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM HAS SIGNIFICANTLY DE-
CREASED IN STRENGTH OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS PRODUCING FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS. THIS SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF LOW WIND SHEAR, UPPER
LEVEL ANTI-CYCLONIC OUTFLOW AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE OF
83 TO 86 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT, HELPING TO ENHANCE THE DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS TROPICAL FEATURE.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE VALID UNTIL 090400Z.//
1240. WxLogic
Good morning....

Current AOIs and their propagation (I expect)... these AOIs have the potential to develop.

1241. tkeith
Maybe a TD or low-end TS.

I could stand that...
1242. IKE
Latest GFS through August 24th....Link


Latest NOGAPS through August 14th....Link

NOGAPS shows the area of low pressure in the NE GOM. But look how strong it gets it compared to how strong it shows Colin....which is a 40mph 1012 mb tropical storm.
Quoting IKE:



SYNOPSIS FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO
430 AM CDT SUN AUG 08 2010

.SYNOPSIS...NORTHERN EDGE OF TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY OVER BAY OF
CAMPECHE MOVE W OF AREA LATE TODAY OR TONIGHT. RIDGE FROM
FLORIDA KEYS TO 28N96W SLOWLY DRIFTS S THROUGH WED AS WEAK
FRONTAL TROUGH PUSHES S INTO NE GULF. WEAK LOW PRES FORECAST TO
DEVELOP OFF FLORIDA COAST TUE AND DRIFT SW INTO MIDDLE GULF WED
AND TO NEAR SE LOUISIANA THU.



..........................................

I think that's a typo above where it says drift SW....I think it should have been NW from the models I've seen.

Above it says "weak low"....model runs I've seen are showing 1010mb's...or within 1 mb both ways. Maybe a TD or low-end TS.

Doesn't look very significant...for now.


No typo, similar to the UKMET solution, which on this graphic only goes out 72 hours.





1244. KBH
looks like these heatwaves and floods are more dangerous than storms we are having
1245. 7544
hmm could this be pre 94l coming together just est of fla and will it move west over the state or ne ti a

wave at 12 and 30 looks like a td already too

lots to follow today

93l moves wnw hmm for that one
1246. IKE
nrtiwlnvragn.....you could be right. Just haven't seen SW movement much in other models.....although this one below may be SW for a short time.


ECMWF @ 48 hours....




@ 72 hours....




@ 96 hours....

1247. WxLogic
Hope something weak enough develops to pump some moisture around here... not enough rain so far this year.
1248. KBH
Quoting extreme236:


You can see some sort of circulation at 28W on the east side of the system. Very much like Dean.

do you have a longrange forecast for this new system at 28w?

NMFC Norfolk Tropical Feed
Active Tropical Warnings in the Atlantic, Caribbean, or Gulf of Mexico
Tropical Storm 04L (COLIN)
By Maritime.CDO@navy.mil (NMFC CDO) from Naval Maritime Forecast Center Norfolk Virginia. Published on .
As of SUN 08 Aug 2010 11:21:02Z
2010 Storms
All Active Year

Atlantic
93L.INVEST T.C.F.A
92L.INVEST
04L.COLIN
East Pacific
07E.ESTELLE
Central Pacific
NONE
West Pacific
05W.FIVE
Indian Ocean
NONE
Southern Hemisphere
NONE
1252. 7544
agree wow jason u think that blob will go west over fla could it be forming as we blog this am and close to land too
1253. breald
Morning All!! I thought we had 94L you guys were talking about it yesterday.
1258. IKE
Quoting DestinJeff:


if you go by what you read here, you'd think we have up to 97L by now.


Someone was on here earlier talking about...I think it was the blob SE of 93L being Earl. I'm not sold on 93L being Danielle yet. Dry air seems to be encroaching on it more today than yesterday.
Good morning everyone.

Quoting WxLogic:
Good morning....

Current AOIs and their propagation (I expect)... these AOIs have the potential to develop.

I'm assuming that's 500mb? With vorticity like that at 850, I'd think NHC would already have called these at least TDs. But u r on the right track w/ the motion, IMO.
1262. 7544
nice blow up for the est of fla blob moving sw ?
1264. KBH
Quoting BahaHurican:
I think NHC is looking at "still in ITCZ" and not calling it. TAFB has a twave analysed there, but no low...
Perhaps this weather system is not 'significant' enought at this stage to get a mention
Quoting KBH:

do you have a longrange forecast for this new system at 28w?
Hope this shows up.

1267. WxLogic
Quoting BahaHurican:
Good morning everyone.

I'm assuming that's 500mb? With vorticity like that at 850, I'd think NHC would already have called these at least TDs. But u r on the right track w/ the motion, IMO.


Indeed... 500MB. They have weak reflection at 700MB to 850MB (trying to work its way down, assuming they can sustain deep enough convection).
Quoting jasoncoolman2010xx:
Looks like I was right about 92L; it's going right into that very favorable for development spot in the EPAC. Maybe we'll get one more named storm in the EPac before the ATL explodes....
1269. IKE
Look at the pressure at Bermuda....

Civil Air Terminal, BE (Airport)
Updated: 47 min 28 sec ago
Light Rain Showers
79 °F
Light Showers Rain
Humidity: 89%
Dew Point: 75 °F
Wind: 13 mph from the SSE
Pressure: 30.04 in (Rising)
Visibility: 6.2 miles
UV: 1 out of 16
Clouds:
Few 800 ft
Scattered Clouds 1700 ft
Mostly Cloudy 5000 ft
Mostly Cloudy 30000 ft
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 10 ft
1270. KBH
Quoting BahaHurican:
Hope this shows up.


thanks, looks like it will follow the same [ath as that system presently at 45W, is that floater following colin as well?
Quoting DestinJeff:
Here is the "Worse Than It Really Is" image from the NHC on the FL Blob:

We got some pretty decent rain and thunder/lightning from this system overnight in Nassau. It's still overcast here this a.m.
The dreadful "K" formed over the Bahamas when it impacted Florida and went into the GOM.

Oh, lord, Jeff, we need Homer to save us!
1273. IKE
...COLIN MOVING CLOSER TO BERMUDA...BARELY A TROPICAL STORM...
8:00 AM AST Sun Aug 8
Location: 31.2N 65.6W
Max sustained: 40 mph
Moving: N at 7 mph
Min pressure: 1013 mb

It's "within" 70 miles of Bermuda and their pressure is 30.04 and rising.

***wonders about the NHC...early mornin shot***
Quoting KBH:

thanks, looks like it will follow the same [ath as that system presently at 45W, is that floater following colin as well?
There's nothing but ITCZ convection at 45W, from what I can tell. But there's definately a mid-level circulation with the 1 at 32W, even though it's still embedded in the ITCZ. I suppose that's why the NHC hasn't done more than call it a Twave - no serious surface reflection. I still think this is one to watch; it's far enough N to be influenced by Corialis, but far enough S to take advantage of warmer waters and moister air. I don't think it's going to just "pop up", but I could see something coming from this 3 - 5 days down the road.
1275. IKE
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SUN AUG 8 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM COLIN...LOCATED ABOUT 90 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA.

SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED ABOUT
1250 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS REMAINS LIMITED.
HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR GENERALLY FAVORABLE FOR A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A
HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/BROWN
Quoting Hurricanes12:
The dreadful "K" formed over the Bahamas when it impacted Florida and went into the GOM.

Oh, lord, Jeff, we need Homer to save us!
No apostrophe in Bahamas, H12. If u r looking at the system that just passed over us in comparison w/ Katrina, I'm not sure there's enough similarity to make a match.... lol.

But we shall see.
000
ABNT20 KNHC 081151
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SUN AUG 8 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM COLIN...LOCATED ABOUT 90 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA.

SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED ABOUT
1250 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS REMAINS LIMITED.
HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR GENERALLY FAVORABLE FOR A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A
HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/BROWN
1278. IKE
Quoting IKE:
...COLIN MOVING CLOSER TO BERMUDA...BARELY A TROPICAL STORM...
8:00 AM AST Sun Aug 8
Location: 31.2�N 65.6�W
Max sustained: 40 mph
Moving: N at 7 mph
Min pressure: 1013 mb

It's "within" 70 miles of Bermuda and their pressure is 30.04 and rising.

***wonders about the NHC...early mornin shot***


Coordinates for Bermuda...32.4N and 64.7W.
Sorry Ike I didnt see your post before I put it on here.
1280. 7544
Quoting BahaHurican:
No apostrophe in Bahamas, H12. If u r looking at the system that just passed over us in comparison w/ Katrina, I'm not sure there's enough similarity to make a match.... lol.

But we shall see.


wheres it heading now
Norton is freaking out this AM... Anyone else getting flagged by their Anti virus software??

Small-whitebg-red Embedded Link To Malicious Site (what's this?)

Threats found: 2
Here is a complete list:
Threat Name: Embedded link to malicious site wunderground.com
Location: http://www.wonderground.com/US/TX/Amarillo.html


Threat Name: Embedded link to malicious site wunderground.com
Location: http://www.wonderground.com/US/TN/Oak_Ridge.html


Small-whitebg-red Viruses (what's this?)

Threats found: 1
Here is a complete list:
Threat Name: Adware.ADH
Location: http://www.wonderground.com/windowsinstall/install_whas11.exe


(I broke the links on purpose so no one will accidentally go check them out, they ARE FLAGGED, so no clicky.)
If someone wants to report to admin feel free.
Quoting IKE:
...COLIN MOVING CLOSER TO BERMUDA...BARELY A TROPICAL STORM...
8:00 AM AST Sun Aug 8
Location: 31.2�N 65.6�W
Max sustained: 40 mph
Moving: N at 7 mph
Min pressure: 1013 mb

It's "within" 70 miles of Bermuda and their pressure is 30.04 and rising.

***wonders about the NHC...early mornin shot***
THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF COLIN REMAINS DISPLACED TO THE NORTH OF THE
REMAINING DEEP CONVECTION...AS SHEAR AND DRY AIR CONTINUE TO
INHIBIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER AND WEST OF THE CENTER. according to NHC.....
Quoting 7544:


wheres it heading now
Headed back across FL, it seems. But I've seen / heard anything from NW to SW, so ur guess is as good as mine. Also I'm not expecting it to be TS before crossing... more likely after it gets in the GOM....
1281. SouthALWX 7:56 AM EDT on August 08, 2010

I messaged Admin about it earlier when it popped for me. I'd suggest u just copy/paste ur message to a ticket for Admin. Click the Contacts link at the bottom of the page for more details.
1286. 7544
Quoting BahaHurican:
Headed back across FL, it seems. But I've seen / heard anything from NW to SW, so ur guess is as good as mine. Also I'm not expecting it to be TS before crossing... more likely after it gets in the GOM....


ok thanks i guess thats why theres a flood watch for so fla thru mon thanks again
Quoting DestinJeff:
Back to Snoozing again until, what now, Sep 10th?
I like the snoozing idea, but think I'll get up in around 10 a.m. rather than 10 Sep....... lol

BBL
1288. b4dirt
I am getting the same virus warning!!!!
Thank Baha, I forwarded the unbroken version to the admin. I hope critical was the correct priority.
.
From what I can tell, it is linked to an ad or something. I see nothing wrong with Master's blog though Im not going to go exploring to try and find it!
deleted.. cant get the pic to post for some reason
1293. IKE
Quoting DestinJeff:
Back to Snoozing again until, what now, Sep 10th?



Sept. 10th?

Looks like an indoor beginning of the week for southern Florida.


1295. IKE
WTH?


Bermuda, Bermuda (Airport)
Updated: 17 min 2 sec ago
Light Rain Showers
80 °F
Light Rain Showers
Humidity: 84%
Dew Point: 76 °F
Wind: 17 mph from the South
Wind Gust: -
Pressure: 30.06 in (Rising)
Visibility: 9.0 miles
Elevation: 20 ft
Good morning, everybody.

Dark, breezy and wet on Florida's west central coast this morning. Nice blob out there in the Gulf. I see there's another one on the opposite coast. This should be a fun day.
Colin should be a remnant low already, Ike. Lol.
grrr why wont the pic upload lol

maybe 3rd time will be a charm
1299. aquak9
G'morning all. (lifts coffee cup full circle)

no adware/virus problems...are you folks members? That shouldn't be an issue, tho.

NE Fla is sunny, calm, slight haze over the Atlantic. But I'll be keeping an eye open for "those" clouds.

We would gladly take some rain...
Yes, I too got the warning....did not send to admin as I don't really know how. Norton said this site is unsafe. But I jumped in anyway. I do think it might be tied to some trolly links.
What d'ya do with a 42gigatonne 183meter(600foot)thick chunk of ice?

42trillion629billion130million941thousand510kilograms or 93trillion981billion146million344thousand595pounds is bigger than the British national debt.
Heck it's bigger than the US national debt (though that ain't from any lack of tryin').
And certainly too big if one wants ones martini properly shaken, and not stirred.
Quoting aquak9:
G'morning all. (lifts coffee cup full circle)

no adware/virus problems...are you folks members? That shouldn't be an issue, tho.

NE Fla is sunny, calm, slight haze over the Atlantic. But I'll be keeping an eye open for "those" clouds.

We would gladly take some rain...


Got a couple of inches here yesterday NW FL aka L.A.(Lower Alabama) LOL
1303. pottery
Good Morning all.
Some showers early this morning have given way to sunshine, sparkles on the trees and cool temps.
Very nice. A great day for settin' around watching stuff go by.
Unfortunately, I have to attend a meeting at 10:00. Indoors. BAH!
That's just not fair........
1304. aquak9
Quoting PanhandleChuck:


Got a couple of inches here yesterday NW FL aka L.A.(Lower Alabama) LOL


We had PWATS 2-3 inches, chuck, and ended up with barely half an inch. Grumble grumble...

what do you use to measure your rainfall totals?
1305. IKE
And a somewhat positive MJO is in the Atlantic.....




Looks like the blob SE of 93L is ingesting some dust....

Morning, Aqua - looks as if you got all the skwerrels out of your 'puter. Maybe some rain for you out of this one, I hope.
rossclick, why don't u upload ur photo to wunderground instead? I never have problems getting my wunderphotos to post to the blog....
1308. smuldy
Starting to think the NHC is run by David Kahn after still insisting everyone beware of Tropical Sprinkle Colin yet still not even mentioning the wave around the ITCZ
1309. 7544
east of fla blob gaining more conv . now
Quoting aquak9:


We had PWATS 2-3 inches, chuck, and ended up with barely half an inch. Grumble grumble...

what do you use to measure your rainfall totals?


Need to get a new gauge, currently using the swimming pool as a marker LOL
Quoting aspectre:
What d'ya do with a 42gigatonne 183meter(600foot)thick chunk of ice?

42trillion629billion130million941thousand510kilograms or 93trillion981billion146million344thousand595pounds is bigger than the British national debt.
Heck it's bigger than the US national debt (though that ain't from any lack of tryin').
And certainly too big if one wants ones martini properly shaken, and not stirred.


Oh! I saw that yesterday. Darn thing is as big as the Island of Manhattan. Wow!
img src=ImageHost.org

Pic I took of tornado forming near boca yesterday
1301:
You drag it into the gomex for summer ... preferably around 50 mi south of mobile bay. Id be happy if you knocked off 5F or so from those ssts.
1314. surfmom
Quoting PanhandleChuck:


Need to get a new gauge, currently using the swimming pool as a marker LOL


I got the best rain gauge via rainman - durable & I love the extra large numbers - don't need glasses first thing in the AM
Rough going for the folks in Moscow (Red Square)

1316. pottery
Landslides and floods have 'engulfed' a town in China.
127 deaths, 2000 missing.............

Per BBC news.
Quoting surfmom:


I got the best rain gauge via rainman - durable & I love the extra large numbers - don't need glasses first thing in the AM


LOL
1318. aquak9
surfmom- ya really oughtta consider signing up to the CoCoRAHs site, to upload daily data.

NWS uses the CoCoRAHs data.

And thank you m'luv!!
Quoting PanhandleChuck:


Need to get a new gauge, currently using the swimming pool as a marker LOL

Speaking of pools I need some advice WU community! My daughter (2 years old)) discovered around 1000 tadpoles in our pool this morning. Any advice on how I get rid of the little buggers without triggering a tantrum? =P
1320. aquak9
Quoting SouthALWX:
1301:
You drag it into the gomex for summer ... preferably around 50 mi south of mobile bay. Id be happy if you knocked off 5F or so from those ssts.


my thoughts exactly!!
Quoting aquak9:
G'morning all. (lifts coffee cup full circle)

no adware/virus problems...are you folks members? That shouldn't be an issue, tho.

NE Fla is sunny, calm, slight haze over the Atlantic. But I'll be keeping an eye open for "those" clouds.

We would gladly take some rain...
Hey, aqua. This "virus" think is connected w/ Norton, I think. Hopefully Admin will deal with it expeditiously.

I was smiling when u talked about low pressures and knees last night. Then I had the same problem, except with my sinuses. No wonder the old pple used to know when a storm was "travelling" as they used to say.... lol

That reminds me: I need to wundermail u about PWS's.

It's really overcast and still here. Reminds me of Greensboro, NC in early September - sullen and sultry....
Quoting SouthALWX:

Speaking of pools I need some advice WU community! My daughter (2 years old)) discovered around 1000 tadpoles in our pool this morning. Any advice on how I get rid of the little buggers without triggering a tantrum? =P


Tell em that you are gonna be like Billy the Exterminator and relocate them to a place where they can live happily ever after!
1323. pottery
Quoting SouthALWX:

Speaking of pools I need some advice WU community! My daughter (2 years old)) discovered around 1000 tadpoles in our pool this morning. Any advice on how I get rid of the little buggers without triggering a tantrum? =P

Be Carefull!!
The Society for the Protection of Tadpoles is watching ...........
heheheheh
Quoting weatherwart:


Oh! I saw that yesterday. Darn thing is as big as the Island of Manhattan. Wow!


Just read a short article about it. Excuse me... it's four times the size of Manhattan. That's a lot of fresh water.
1325. surfmom
Quoting BahaHurican:
Headed back across FL, it seems. But I've seen / heard anything from NW to SW, so ur guess is as good as mine. Also I'm not expecting it to be TS before crossing... more likely after it gets in the GOM....

humpf w/sigh
want the rain, but not the trouble
want the waves, but not the OIL
Betcha those pple in Russia could use a few chips off that block...
Poor surfmom. Even when the waves DO come to the GoM, u can't really enjoy them... :o(
1328. aquak9
Quoting SouthALWX:

Speaking of pools I need some advice WU community! My daughter (2 years old)) discovered around 1000 tadpoles in our pool this morning. Any advice on how I get rid of the little buggers without triggering a tantrum? =P


well you could leave'm there for a coupla months, they'll hop out, hahaha...but really ya better scoop them out soon, relocate them. Maybe save some in a jar, so she can watch them transform?
1329. pottery
Quoting pottery:

Be Carefull!!
The Society for the Protection of Tadpoles is watching ...........
heheheheh

Actually, on a serious note...
Frogs all over the World are in decline.
You should Nurture the tadpoles, and create a frog-sanctuary where you used to live.
Quoting SouthALWX:

Speaking of pools I need some advice WU community! My daughter (2 years old)) discovered around 1000 tadpoles in our pool this morning. Any advice on how I get rid of the little buggers without triggering a tantrum? =P
I have 3 under two yrs old; a two yr old girl, 19 mos boy, 1o mos girl. The two yr old lots of tantrums, I can see a tantrum about something like that LOL. Distract her, take her away, then skim skim skim, good luck!
1331. surfmom
Quoting weatherwart:
Good morning, everybody.

Dark, breezy and wet on Florida's west central coast this morning. Nice blob out there in the Gulf. I see there's another one on the opposite coast. This should be a fun day.


LOL -- I see the blob, been calling out to him all morning....OVER HERE PLEASE!!!
My hens would love a day singing in the rain.... so hot egg production is off a bit
1332. BDAwx


I wonder if Colin has opened up into a trough...
1311 weatherwart "Oh! I saw that yesterday. Darn thing is as big as the Island of Manhattan. Wow!

More than 4 times bigger
Quoting BDAwx:


I wonder if Colin has opened up into a trough...
NHC was hinting this might happen sooner rather than later. Also were saying finding the COC was a bit challenging this a.m.
1335. surfmom
Indoor Meeting??? soooo sorry Pottery, that would be torture for me as well.....

curious, what's the water temp by you? we're at 91degrees........
1336. GetReal


I am not all that excited about the blob near the northern Bahamas... I have checked all the reporting stations and buoy reports in the area, and there is no indication that there has been any pressure falls in the entire area.

I'll take more of an interest once there is some evidence that pressures are falling, and there is some organization occurring.
1337. TopDuji
Quoting SouthALWX:

Speaking of pools I need some advice WU community! My daughter (2 years old)) discovered around 1000 tadpoles in our pool this morning. Any advice on how I get rid of the little buggers without triggering a tantrum? =P
Chlorine - " super shock levels " - very quick . . .
Good morning, the NHC mentions this in the 8 a.m. ...TROPICAL WAVES...

LOW-AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 14N31W TO 8N32W MOVING W 10-15 KT. MID TO LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS ABOUT THE WAVE AXIS MAINLY CONSTRAINED TO THE ITCZ REGION. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS W OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 12N-13N BETWEEN 32W-34W.

CatLoopLink

Quoting PanhandleChuck:


Tell em that you are gonna be like Billy the Exterminator and relocate them to a place where they can live happily ever after!


Guess no one in here has seen Billy --- He is very different and from Louisiana LOL
Quoting pottery:

Be Carefull!!
The Society for the Protection of Tadpoles is watching ...........
heheheheh

L O L
1341. BDAwx
Quoting BahaHurican:
NHC was hinting this might happen sooner rather than later. Also were saying finding the COC was a bit challenging this a.m.


Thank you!

Good Morning all! Is that blob in the NE Gulf what the models were hinting at or is that yet to come?
1343. surfmom
Moscow & China - YIKES

anyone know how the Dam in china is holding up? Forgot the name - 7 Sisters?

haven't been able to keep up with the rain numbers in that area
Quoting Chicklit:
Good morning, the NHC mentions this in the 8 a.m. ...TROPICAL WAVES...

LOW-AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 14N31W TO 8N32W MOVING W 10-15 KT. MID TO LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS ABOUT THE WAVE AXIS MAINLY CONSTRAINED TO THE ITCZ REGION. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS W OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 12N-13N BETWEEN 32W-34W.

CatLoopLink

They've had something about that for a couple discussions now. I guess they're looking for separation from ITCZ and a stronger surface reflection before saying anything else....
1345. pottery
Quoting surfmom:
Indoor Meeting??? soooo sorry Pottery, that would be torture for me as well.....

curious, what's the water temp by you? we're at 91degrees........

LOL..
Water temps are a balmy 84-85.
Swells to 5', and waters are slightly cloudy...
Oh, and no noticeable polutants floating about.
Morning.

I see Pakistan's still drenched, Moscow's still baking (though they might get a shower or two in a couple of days), and Colin's got identity problems. Again.

1347. pottery
See you all Later.
Have a Tranquil one...........
1348. hydrus
Quoting surfmom:
Moscow & China - YIKES

anyone know how the Dam in china is holding up? Forgot the name - 7 Sisters?

haven't been able to keep up with the rain numbers in that area
Mornin SurfMom- The Three Gorges dam is the only one I know. It is the largest in the world.
Quoting aquak9:


well you could leave'm there for a coupla months, they'll hop out, hahaha...but really ya better scoop them out soon, relocate them. Maybe save some in a jar, so she can watch them transform?

This is roughly whay I was thinking. If by relocate you mean use as fishing bait.
1350. hydrus
Quoting pottery:
See you all Later.
Have a Tranquil one...........
See ya Pott.
1351. surfmom
Quoting BahaHurican:
Poor surfmom. Even when the waves DO come to the GoM, u can't really enjoy them... :o(


Ahh Baha --you (((understand))) our entire world has been turned upside down here -

True, True Pottery!! We have been assisting MaNature for years around here in regards to Tadpole assistance. It's a wonderful, FREE, project to do with your kids for next to nothing. Watching tadpoles develop is fascinating for any kid & you teach stewardship of the planet at the same time. Raise & release and you will have less mosquitoes and other annoying biters for sure.
Looks like a lot of moisture being carved away from 93L.



Link
Hmmmm....



Thanks for all the advice :) I'm thinking we'll keep some of them in a jar, take her to release "all" the rest of them ... and whats left Ill fish with.
1355. surfmom
Quoting pottery:

LOL..
Water temps are a balmy 84-85.
Swells to 5', and waters are slightly cloudy...
Oh, and no noticeable polutants floating about.


RESCUE ME !!!!! I'm on the dock waving a pyrate flag
oops (can I bring my dog & surfboard?)
Quoting BahaHurican:
They've had something about that for a couple discussions now. I guess they're looking for separation from ITCZ and a stronger surface reflection before saying anything else....


Maybe ran into some dry air but things could get a little better for it today.
Link

This is the link.


Latitude= 23.03 N Longitude= 43.55 W
Quoting pottery:

Actually, on a serious note...
Frogs all over the World are in decline.
You should Nurture the tadpoles, and create a frog-sanctuary where you used to live.
That Funny A frog lover I say Kill them all lol just playing around
I know we've seen this happen a number of times already, and not much has come to fruition, but, still, Africa is about to send the Atlantic yet another gift (or maybe two):

1361. surfmom
Quoting SouthALWX:

Speaking of pools I need some advice WU community! My daughter (2 years old)) discovered around 1000 tadpoles in our pool this morning. Any advice on how I get rid of the little buggers without triggering a tantrum? =P


OMG - HOLD THE CHLORINE!!!!!!!
- get your skimmer net scoop them out and place them in either a kiddie pool or some larger container -- you can have a blast raising them. If you want more details, WUmail mail (I no longer keep a blog thx to TROLLS)
Now you guys are making me feel guilty ... A) I want my pool back! B) They make such good bait C) The last time I tried raising tadpoles I woke up to find 2 rattlesnakes and only half the tadpoles left in the puddle....
1363. surfmom
HYDRUS!Ahhh yes it is THREE GORGES... where in the world did I get 7 sisters LOL - I'm known for my ditz moments LOL thanks
I see the Mobile, AL discussion includes mention of a cut-off Low in the Eastern Gulf Early in the week. Any model support?
Quoting surfmom:
Quoting SouthALWX:

Speaking of pools I need some advice WU community! My daughter (2 years old)) discovered around 1000 tadpoles in our pool this morning. Any advice on how I get rid of the little buggers without triggering a tantrum? =P


OMG - HOLD THE CHLORINE!!!!!!!
- get your skimmer net scoop them out and place them in either a kiddie pool or some larger container -- you can have a blast raising them. If you want more details, WUmail mail (I no longer keep a blog thx to TROLLS)

Now THAT might work ... I have a smaller pool that I can move them to. Great plan!
1366. WxLogic
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
Hmmmm....





I know... tempting to go there.
1367. surfmom
Quoting SouthALWX:
Thanks for all the advice :) I'm thinking we'll keep some of them in a jar, take her to release "all" the rest of them ... and whats left Ill fish with.


that works perfectly !! Win - win
1368. WxLogic
Almost...

1369. FLdewey
AGUA!


...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA.

* TODAY THROUGH LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON

* AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION...THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY.

THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BEGIN THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO MONDAY EVENING. TWO TO THREE INCHES OF RAINFALL ACCUMULATION ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY...MAINLY EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTION OF THE PENINSULA. IN ISOLATED AREAS EVEN HIGHER RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE. ON MONDAY...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED...WITH TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS IN SOME AREAS FROM TODAYS AND MONDAYS RAINFALL POSSIBLY REACHING FOUR TO SIX INCHES.

* THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM TODAY AND MONDAY...OR THE
COMBINATION OF THE TWO...COULD LEAD TO SOME MINOR FLOODING OF STREETS...URBAN AREAS AND LOW LYING AREAS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON CURRENT FORECASTS.






1370. BDAwx
AWOS at Commissioner's Point just reported:
sustained winds at 34mph and a gust at 43mph
Record temperatures

Link
Had good waves here in NC yesterday. Not that I was any good with 'em, but it was fun trying! Nasty little rip tide you didn't realize was there until you were 100 yards out...
1373. FLdewey
Ahhh... so it WAS a waterspout that moved onshore in Volusia yesterday to become an EF0 nado' that damaged some homes. We're heading towards the peak of "waterspout season" in east central Florida... get outcha cameras!

Low risk today...

1319 SouthALWX "Speaking of pools I need some advice WU community! My daughter (2 years old)) discovered around 1000 tadpoles in our pool this morning. Any advice on how I get rid of the little buggers without triggering a tantrum? =P"

I assume you mean a wading pool. Just buy a much smaller wading pool or plastic tub, or go to a nearby bakery or restaurant and see if they have a 5gallon plastic*bucket or three that they want to get rid of.
Fill the mini-pool or tub with water from the pool, cuz there's already algae in that water that the tadpoles can feed off of. Then hand her a strainer to catch and transfer the tadpoles to the mini-pool, tub, or bucket while you help with a larger net.

Probably wanna add some mosquito fish to eat those bloodsucker's larvae. You can usually get them free if you look in the phone book under mosquito abatement, or dirt cheap at a pet or pond store.

* Or a 5gallon paint or mud(plastering)bucket or three from a construction/remodeling/repainting site. Just make sure you clean them really really good before pouring pool water into the bucket, or you might kill the tadpoles (and any fish).
Bout time

AL 04 2010080812 BEST 0 314N 656W 30 1013 TD
A lot of people don't know this but Clearwater/Tampa leads the list. List compiled by Dr. Forbes (TWC).

Even though Colin is now a TD, I give it props for even lasting that long anyways and for regenerating. It lasted a while with such a high pressure and it had to face alot of obstacles.
Sorry I can't get this to animate, but there is definite SW motion with the blob in the NE GOM. If you look at the radar, you can see the convection splitting, with some storms heading East into Fl., while the rest is moving out into the waters of the GOM

Colin's ACE will be just short of 2 (1.945 by my reckoning).
1381. aquak9
chuck- bouys link

Link
Quoting aquak9:
chuck- bouys link

Link


Thanks aqua, not showing much of anything and pressures rising, but that may change withing the next 6 hours or so. Any thoughts?

PS where's Pat? Has he gotten tired of all the crap that's been on here lately?
If the ECMWF verifies we might have a invest too watch in the Gulf in 48 hours.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
If the ECMWF verifies we might have a invest too watch in the Gulf in 48 hours.


Mornin Teddy
1385. hydrus
Quoting surfmom:
HYDRUS!Ahhh yes it is THREE GORGES... where in the world did I get 7 sisters LOL - I'm known for my ditz moments LOL thanks
You seem pretty sharp to me.:)
1386. jerr
Is any one paying attention to the record setting cold in Argentina and Bolivia.

Any explanation - Don't think it global warming.

Earth axis shift and or orbit?
Hansen's new book has some interesting references on the subject
Quoting PanhandleChuck:


Mornin Teddy


Morning.
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:


As far as mankind causing global warming the debate really is over. As to the feedbacks that will come into play, how much ice melts, how much temperature rises, how weather patterns will change in the coming greenhouse world---there is a lot of debate on how things will turn out, yes.

How is the debate on whether mankind caused global warming over? Where are your sources? You write off and criticize others on here for making statements with no backup yet you do it constantly.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
If the ECMWF verifies we might have a invest too watch in the Gulf in 48 hours.


Looks like a LLC off of Ga. moving S.W. this morning.
Quoting jerr:
Is any one paying attention to the record setting cold in Argentina and Bolivia.

Any explanation - Don't think it global warming.

Earth axis shift and or orbit?
Hansen's new book has some interesting references on the subject


Not getting into this, but it was pretty darn cold here in the panhandle last winter and nobody said nothin about it. Biting my tongue before I go on a rant.

jerr -- Not an attack on you, so please don't take it that way.
Quoting Abacosurf:


Looks like a LLC off of Ga. moving S.E. this morning.


look at the melbourne long range radar.
Quoting StormW:


506. That's my point. And the Earth is how old?

Very nice, Storm. And of course, there was no response as usual.
Quoting PanhandleChuck:


Not getting into this, but it was pretty darn cold here in the panhandle last winter and nobody said nothin about it. Biting my tongue before I go on a rant.

jerr -- Not an attack on you, so please don't take it that way.

It snowed in mobile ... 6" where I live ( citronelle, al ...) go figure .. *shrug*
NEW BLOG
Quoting SouthALWX:

It snowed in mobile ... 6" where I live ( citronelle, al ...) go figure .. *shrug*


The first week in January I had 7 nights in a row, where the thermometer dipped below 15 degrees each night. I'm quite sure it got even colder up in Ike's neck of the woods. LOL
1396. FLdewey
Quoting Sfloridacat5:
A lot of people don't know this but Clearwater/Tampa leads the list. List compiled by Dr. Forbes (TWC).

Seems like a strange statistic... per 1000 sq miles, yet it's done by city? I don't know it seems like a skewed statistic to me.

Texas has more than twice the number per year...

At least the good news is ours are nothing compared to what they see out west... give me an EF0 waterspout to photograph any day!

1397. 1965
Quoting Abacosurf:


Looks like a LLC off of Ga. moving S.W. this morning.


Yeah, that is what I'm seeing as well.

Baroclinic in nature, and is being sheared from the NW. This critter looks to have 3-4 days to get it's act together in a steam bath environment. This one is THE feature to watch right now even though it currently looks like nothing, all major models develop this into a low over the EGOM in the coming days. Everything else in the Atlantic are fish for the next week or so.
Quoting FLdewey:

Seems like a strange statistic... per 1000 sq miles, yet it's done by city? I don't know it seems like a skewed statistic to me.

Texas has more than twice the number per year...

At least the good news is ours are nothing compared to what they see out west... give me an EF0 waterspout to photograph any day!


Texas is also, what 4 times the size of florida? Geographically, the area of florida is the most active tornadically. Get a graphic of violent ef3+ tornadoes and a different story will be told.
surfmom "Moscow & China - YIKES anyone know how the dam in China is holding up?
Haven't been able to keep up with the rain numbers in that area.
"

"China's Three Gorges superstructure is now under threat from vast floating islands of rubbish and debris which have been swept into the Yangtze River by torrential rain and flooding."

"...debris has clogged a large swathe of the river, and the locks of the hydroelectric dam...are now at risk.
[...] More rain is forecast in the coming days."
NEW BLOG!
"These nations comprise 19% of the total land area of Earth. This is the largest area of Earth's surface to experience all-time record high temperatures in any single year in the historical record."


The first statement is correct; the second is at best dubious. Is one national record really comparable to another (e.g. Belarus to Ascension I.)? Is it correct to add areas of whole nations, because of one record in one limited area? Is it really true that as much as 19% of the surface of Earth has experienced all-time record high temperatures?

Russia is the world's largest country. It now has a new national heat record (or even two). So far, so good. Cyprus also hit a new national heat record this year. Now, if you would divide Russia up into pieces as small as Cyprus, you would find that not all of these almost 2000 pieces have set new records. Maybe 10% did, maybe 20% or more did, but certainly not all of them, thus making up the total area of Russia. However, the whole area of Russia is counted in as part of the 19%; in fact Russia makes up more than half of this area.

On the other hand, USA is also a large nation. Possibly, a U.S. national heat record was set in 2007, but not in 2010 (as yet), so USA is not included. I am not aware of any new U.S. state heat records set in 2010, but if, let's say, Delaware and Rhode Island had new state records set in July, USA will still contribute with just 0 km² to the total area, according to the metrics of Dr. Jeff Masters. That seems wrong to me. They are small states, but together they are as large as Cyprus. Also, some U.S. states are much larger than Delaware. Maybe, if you divided up for instance Alaska or Texas into smaller pieces, you would find new local records here and there? Those areas, too, ought to be added to the total land area percentage figure.

However, if the national record from Death Valley is beaten again this year, suddenly all 9,372,614 km² of the U.S. will be added to the total land area that has experienced all-time high. That also seems wrong to me.

In short, to claim that a certain percentage of the total land area of Earth has experienced all-time record high temperatures, you would have to divide the total area into reasonably small parts (probably much smaller than Cyprus but bigger than Ascension Island's 88 km²). Then you would have to investigate the temperature history of each one. Nations are in this respect in most cases too big units (or in a few cases even too small units), to form a valid base for a statement like the one quoted at the top of this comment.
Quoting FLdewey:
Ahhh... so it WAS a waterspout that moved onshore in Volusia yesterday to become an EF0 nado' that damaged some homes. We're heading towards the peak of "waterspout season" in east central Florida... get outcha cameras!

Low risk today...




Can't you see we're all caught in tadpoles? What is this "weather stuff" anyway and using that abbreviation for an obvious profanity (EFO nado) Yeah I was called something like that once.
Wait till Jeff gets back. I'm tellin"!