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Bermuda braces for Hurricane Florence

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:16 PM GMT on September 10, 2006

Today marks the peak day of the Atlantic hurricane season, and we've got the second hurricane of the season to watch now. Hurricane warnings are flying in Bermuda, and the island is bracing for what may be a direct hit by a Category 2 Hurricane Florence on Monday. Florence has an impressive appearance on satellite imagery this morning, with a large 50-mile diameter eye, an outflow channel at upper levels well established to the north, and a smaller one to the east. Given the very large size of the eye, it appears likely that at least a portion of Bermuda will be affected by the eyewall when Florence makes its closest approach Monday. Satellite intensity estimates are steadily increasing, but we'll have to wait until the Hurricane Hunters arrive back at the storm around 2pm EDT this afternoon to see how much intensification has occurred. The last Hurricane Hunter mission departed the storm at 3:30am EDT this morning. One can see some impressive rain bands enveloping the island on Bermuda radar and the Bermuda radar animation.


Figure 1. Latest satellite image of Florence, updated every 1/2 hour.

Florence has a very large swath of tropical storm force winds that have been blowing for many days over a huge stretch of ocean. These factors, when combined with the storm's expected intensification into a Category 2 hurricane, will create very high ocean swells that will impact the entire Atlantic coast from the Lesser Antilles to Canada. The highest seas can be expected from North Carolina to Newfoundland, with five to ten foot seas common in many nearshore areas. Twelve foot seas are expected off Cape Hatteras by Tuesday. The wave height forecast animation from the global wave model run by the National Weather Service is most impressive, and predicts wave heights up to 30 feet offshore the Newfoundland coast on Tuesday. Bermuda can expect waves of 15-25 feet on top of a 6-8 foot storm surge on Monday when the center of Florence passes.

Elsewhere in the tropics
An area of disturbed weather 900 miles east-southeast of Florence has a pronounced surface spin that one can see on visible satellite imagery, and was declared "Invest 93L" by NHC on Saturday. Wind shear has fallen to just 10 knots over this disturbance today, and some slow development is possible as it follows the a track similar to Florence. This storm may be a threat to Bermuda, but probably nowhere else.

There are no other threat areas in the Atlantic to discuss. The computer models forecast a new development off the coast of Africa by the middle of next week, but anything developing in this region is likely to recurve out to sea.


Figure 2. Preliminary model tracks for Invest 93L, 900 miles east-southeast of Florence.

Hurricanes and Bermuda
Hurricanes and Bermuda are no strangers. Since 1551, at least 65 tropical storms and hurricanes have hit the island. Twenty-five of these were major hurricanes. In the past century, the most severe hurricane to hit was the Havana-Bermuda Hurricane of October 22, 1926. This Category 4 storm struck the island with 135 mph winds and killed 88 sailors on a British war ship moored in the harbor that capsized and sank. Since the naming of hurricanes commenced in 1950, the only Bermuda hurricane to gets its named retired was Hurricane Fabian, which struck the island as a category 3 hurricane on September 5, 2003. According to NHC's final report on Hurricane Fabian, the hurricane's eye scraped the west side of the island, bringing the storm's worst winds in the right front quadrant over the island. Sustained winds of 115 mph and a storm surge of 10 feet caused over 300 million in damage and killed four. Battering waves 20-30 feet high affected the south shore of the island.

PBS television show tonight
Some Public television stations will be carrying the show, "Anatomy of a Hurricane", tonight at 10:30pm. Here's their description of the show:

This documentary program goes inside the National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida, during the 2004 hurricane season. Tune in to get a revealing look at the stressful work of the dedicated staff who deal with unique and unexpected challenges and struggle to make the most accurate predictions. (CC, Stereo)
http://www.pbs.org/stationfinder/stationfinder_relocalize.html

It should be a great look inside at what goes on at the NHC during a big storm!

I'll have an update late tonight or early Monday morning.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Evening Gulf

So there were two invests, and the models for that invest show the same things the models for 7 show....Turn N.

Don't fight science without reason...

Night all

At this point I think we need to refine just what a "wishcaster" is.

Making a premature or an incorrect forecast does not make one a wishcaster. It speaks more to state of mind, meaning that you're consistently taking a certain attitude towards a forecast track whether it's likely or even remotely feasable.

Around here, most of the wishcasters are the Murphy's Law type, the ones that see the strongest possible storm on a path that takes it over the most warm water and under the least shear until it nears the most populated area it can. Witness Ernesto, when everyone here kept calling for imminent rapid intensification and that notorious west path into the GOM ... until it got closer to the Atlantic than the GOM, at which point that WNW heading turned NE so that it could get over water the soonest. Witness the "discoveries" of an eye on a tropical storm or even depression, to the point that it's a running joke here.

Wishcasting is ignoring the 99 scenarios that go against your mindset to focus on the one that validates it ... unless the ratio is 100:0, at which point you become Don Quixote, tilting westward at windmills situated over the Loop Current, every jiggle and hiccup a sure sign of a radical shift in the track, every spot of lesser intense clouds near the middle of a storm a sure sign of an eye, and that little black dot is clearly a pinhole eye, not a speck of dust or a flea egg.

There can be wishcasters who constantly call for turns out to sea or instant hurricane death over 90-degree water, but you don't see that here -- the closest are the ones saying that 93L will follow Florence out to sea, and while it's not etched in stone, it's not like they're defying meterological logic to do so.

That's what wishcasting means to me, Charlie Brown.
Kyle here is the hard reasoning. Lets look at the GFS(yes it shows no storm, no problem we can forecast from it).
1) Look for fronts. Generally it looks like there will be one drapped from the Canadian maritimes down the east coast.
2) flow ahead of this front(and to the west of the central atlantic high is from the sw)
3) any storm in this regime would have no choice but to go ne.
4) this fron is assocaited with the 500mb trough

The large scale of the modles give the illusion of a high building in SE of the maritmes, but look closely and you can see that actually there are two high Press cells. One on either side of the front. So in the end the storm once again has no choice.
MysteryMeat - Those are the people I am calling wishcasters. There are quite a few people who stick with the same track no matter what happens, and they fell they can defy a government agency (i.e. the National Hurricane Center). There are many people in here who I know I can trust, and I respect their thoughts and opinions. But, there are also those who sit on their computer and keep typing "It's a fish storm, don't worry.", etc. and could care less about other environmental factors that may make it a landfalling system.
1006. Canenut
I'm getting tired of the term "wishcaster" just as much as I got tired of the term "hunker down" last year.

Lets call them "catastophic optimists"
Navy is calling 93L 07 Noname... Looks like we got our next depression
catastrophic optimists...gotta love that term.

TD7 is not hitting the U.S. mainland. It's going to follow Florence and head out to sea. I don't need a model to see that.
Apparently there has been a tornado in Bermuda. A little surprised, since hurricane tornadoes are usually described as having come from shear as the mid level winds stay strong as the low level winds decrease when it moves inland.
here's my prediction re soon to be TD7

In 2 days time most of you will have been proven wrong, a few will have been close to right and no one will have been absolutely right.
LOL
have a good one all
gnite
1011. eye
catastrophic optimists, I like it...lol

on the last day of hurricane season 2006, i will present two awards for this blog

catastrophic optimists award

and the

thinking waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaay outside the box award
We have a winner! Congrats Canenut! your

"catastropic optimists" wins best new term for this blog! lol
1013. Canenut
An example of catastrophic optimism

By Liz Szabo, USA TODAY
New Orleans is booming again at least in its maternity wards.
Though the city's population has shrunk by half, health officials say, New Orleans' post-hurricane birth rate has taken off.

The city's birth rate increased 39% from May 2005 to May 2006, nine months after Hurricane Katrina.
Anatomy of a Hurricane on PBS Miami now...
good night kmanislander..
our pbs station is broadcasting a show about the Blue Men :-/
good night AllyBama
looking at the Bermuda radar, it looks like the eye is beginning to move NNE
1019. HCW
A double shot of tropical action for Bermuda ?

HARDCOREWEATHER.COM

Link
Hey everyone,

I am not here to participate in any disagreements whatsoever. I did however want to discuss the science of forecasting tropical cyclones itself in its most basic form. Simply put, we all know that tropical cyclones are steered by other weather systems and don't move on their own inertia (except an occasional wobble). So, it is not simply about forecasting the storm itself (although it plays its own role as well), but more about how the other weather systems will develop (i.e. evolve) that influence the upper air patterns that steers these storms.

In the case of Tropical depression #7, we can analyze the current upper level atmospheric data, and take note of the other weather systems that already exist as well in order to formulate the most likely scenario relative to its future course. In regards to considering model runs for systems that weren't taken into consideration, that in itself is somewhat irrelevant when recognizing that the weather systems that will guide its track are already forecasted therein (which gives us an educated opinion).

In short, it is too early to make any definite predictions as to where the tropical depression will ultimately end up (east of Bermuda or just West), but not to recognize that the persistent troughs that are moving from west to east from the western Atlantic (off the U.S. East Coast) should ensure that tropical depression #7 will not reach the U.S. coastline. I could be alot more specific, but I find that simplicity is often the best choice. On a personal note, I need to go wash some clothes for work tomorrow, but I will try to get back on later in order to provide a new update on my expectations for Florence. Most importantly, I hope each and every one of you have a great night.:)

Most sincerely,
Tony
1023. Canenut
Looks like the center will hopefully miss a direct hit on Bermuda.

INITIAL 11/0300Z 31.0N 66.1W 80 KT
12HR VT 11/1200Z 32.8N 65.9W 85 KT
24HR VT 12/0000Z 35.0N 64.8W 90 KT
36HR VT 12/1200Z 37.5N 63.3W 85 KT
48HR VT 13/0000Z 40.4N 60.9W 75 KT
72HR VT 14/0000Z 46.0N 53.5W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 15/0000Z 48.0N 43.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 16/0000Z 49.0N 28.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

ok all 93L is now TD 7 we have new new TD now
where are people getting TD7 from? I still see nothing on wunderground or nhc site about that.
Well.........
I took a poll with my family and gave them a choice of Flo going to NYC,Boston,Maine,Nova Scotia,or Newfoundland,and the overwhelming
consenses was Boston,on wednesday,cat 1

is that wishcasting?

{I love Boston Beans by the way}
ZCZC MIATCMAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006
0300 UTC MON SEP 11 2006

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 54.5W AT 11/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1012 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 54.5W AT 11/0300Z
AT 11/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 54.2W

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 20.3N 55.3W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 20.7N 56.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 21.4N 57.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 22.2N 59.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 25SE 25SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 24.5N 61.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 25SE 25SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 15/0000Z 27.0N 62.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 16/0000Z 29.5N 62.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.2N 54.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER KNABB/BERG
whoops there it is.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006
0300 UTC MON SEP 11 2006

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 54.5W AT 11/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1012 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 54.5W AT 11/0300Z
AT 11/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 54.2W

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 20.3N 55.3W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 20.7N 56.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 21.4N 57.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 22.2N 59.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 25SE 25SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 24.5N 61.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 25SE 25SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 15/0000Z 27.0N 62.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 16/0000Z 29.5N 62.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.2N 54.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER KNABB/BERG
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006
0300 UTC MON SEP 11 2006

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 54.5W AT 11/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1012 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 54.5W AT 11/0300Z
AT 11/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 54.2W

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 20.3N 55.3W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 20.7N 56.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 21.4N 57.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 22.2N 59.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 25SE 25SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 24.5N 61.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 25SE 25SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 15/0000Z 27.0N 62.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 16/0000Z 29.5N 62.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.2N 54.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0900Z

StSimonsIslandGAGuy, just popped up, reload nhc and it will apprear.
Early prognosis looks like TD 7/future Gordon will go east of Bermuda, though that's just the first forecast track from the NHC.
StSimonsIslandGAGuy - here is where TD 7 is from:



NRL often updates storms before the NHC does (which makes sense because the NHC gives updates only four times a day for most storms, unless they are near land).
1034. eye
one more time plz
Wow, gotta love the same update 3 times in a row with the only difference being whats in bold.
Yeah well I beat everyone by a whole minute, so I = 1337
Posted By: StSimonsIslandGAGuy at 2:52 AM GMT on September 11, 2006.
where are people getting TD7 from? I still see nothing on wunderground or nhc site about that.

It's on the navy site, I can't get there because of my weird dns on satellite but that is what they say. Supposedly Navy announces b4 nhc usually.
I repeat, I can't even remember the guys name but think it was stormtrakker and was one of the arguers whom I must admit make life interesting. Where'd he go?? Kicked off?? I would just like to know what he has to say as I would Randrewl or gulf if they left.
Terry
Bermuda has been through many Hurricanes in the past & I am confident that they will get through Florence in good shape. They will get the Eastern side of the storm but it doesn't look like a direct hit. It looks like a short window for strenghthening & then the quick transition to extratropical.

I hope the Wundergeeks had an opportunity to enjoy the weekend. It rained here in Gainesville on Thursday & Today and has been overcast in between. This might be what it will be like this winter if El Nino really does kick in. I remember the winter of 97-98 & in rained here 3-4 times a week for a couple of months. Very wet & a little on the cold side.
Hopefully it will follow the forecast track and be a REAL fish storm instead of a Bermuda storm
Flo to the west and Gordon to the east...that pretty much covers all sides of Bermuda!
1043. Canenut
1100 PM EDT SUN SEP 10 2006

THE SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...THAT HAS BEEN MOVING SLOWLY ACROSS
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS...ESCAPED TODAY FROM THE
NORTHERLY WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE
OVER HURRICANE FLORENCE. AS A RESULT...DURING THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN PERSISTENT AND HAS BECOME MORE
INVOLVED WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER...AND ADVISORIES ARE INITIATED
ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN. THE INTENSITY IS SET TO 25 KT BASED
ON THE 00 UTC DVORAK T-NUMBERS OF 1.5...AND ON AN OBSERVATION FROM
SHIP MSJX8 OF WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 27 KT JUST SOUTH OF THE
CENTER. COMPLETELY OPPOSITE TO WHAT FLORENCE HAS BEEN...THIS
DEPRESSION IS A SMALL CYCLONE. THE CIRCULATION IS PERHAPS 300 NM
WIDE AND THE DEEP CONVECTION IS CONFINED MOSTLY TO THE SOUTHERN
SEMICIRCLE.

MICROWAVE OVERPASSES BY QUIKSCAT AND SSMI...AND SEVERAL FORTUITOUS
SHIP OBSERVATIONS HAVE MADE FINDING THE CENTER A LITTLE EASIER THAN
USUAL FOR A DEPRESSION. IT HAD BEEN MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS...BUT MORE RECENTLY IT APPEARS TO BE
HEADING SLOWLY WESTWARD OR 270/5. STEERING CURRENTS ARE OBVIOUSLY
RATHER WEAK...AND THE GLOBAL MODELS ESSENTIALLY DO NOT KNOW THE
DEPRESSION EXISTS. THE GLOBAL MODEL FIELDS SUGGEST A STEERING
PATTERN THAT WOULD TURN THE DEPRESSION SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD...INTO
THE WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LEFT BEHIND BY FLORENCE. THE
GFS-BASED BAM TRAJECTORIES SHOW RECURVATURE INTO THE MID-LATITUDE
WESTERLIES BY DAY 4 OR 5. THE GFDL FORECASTS AN IMMEDIATE
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION THAT LASTS FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS UNTIL THE
MODEL CIRCULATION DISSIPATES. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE
PATH OF THE BAM MODELS...BUT NOT AS QUICKLY...SINCE GLOBAL MODELS
OTHER THAN THE GFS SUGGEST THE TROPICAL CYCLONE COULD MEANDER
WITHIN THE WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE. THIS IS A HIGHLY UNCERTAIN
FORECAST...AND THE NORTHWARD MOTION LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD CAN
BE INTERPRETED TO MEAN WE ARE NOT YET SURE IF THIS CYCLONE WILL
RECURVE.

AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR MANY OF THE ATLANTIC TROPICAL CYCLONES THIS
YEAR...THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN SURROUNDING THE DEPRESSION IS FAIRLY
COMPLICATED. THE DEPRESSION APPEARS TO HAVE ABOUT 48 HOURS WITHIN
AN UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT THAT COULD ALLOW FOR SOME GRADUAL
STRENGTHENING. THE SHIPS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS COULD BECOME A
STRONG TROPICAL STORM...BUT THE CYCLONE MIGHT HAVE TO CONTEND WITH
INCREASING EASTERLY SHEAR IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST IS QUITE A BIT MORE CONSERVATIVE THAN THE SHIPS
GUIDANCE...AND IT IS CLOSER TO THE GFDL SOLUTION OF A WEAKER
TROPICAL STORM THAT MIGHT NOT EVEN LAST FIVE DAYS.

Flo wants to be a big girl but she keeps getting her head blown of- whoops there goes another one. I guess her little brother will give it a whirl next.
I thought some folks here were absolutely certain TD7 was moving NW? LOL

I like how some folks agree with the NHC when it suits them, but disagree when it goes against their opinion.
interesting discussion read ;-) that's it for me, night y'all!
That PBS special was excellent. That part where the forecasters are all "coming to a concensous" (fighten) about to call the remenents of Ivan that or something else...LOL...

A good line too was ~
Hurricanes are like bananas, they come in bunches.
oh great....
now my family has to face another one this Friday?
sheesh

can't someone make Gordon go elsewhere?

what about the Gulf?

there is an earthquake in the Gulf,

why not a Hurricane?
To say that the NHC discussion leaves a lot of options open is accurate ;-) Will be interesting to see what the TD is up to tomorrow.
AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR MANY OF THE ATLANTIC TROPICAL CYCLONES THIS
YEAR...THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN SURROUNDING THE DEPRESSION IS FAIRLY
COMPLICATED. THE DEPRESSION APPEARS TO HAVE ABOUT 48 HOURS WITHIN
AN UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT THAT COULD ALLOW FOR SOME GRADUAL
STRENGTHENING. THE SHIPS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS COULD BECOME A
STRONG TROPICAL STORM...BUT THE CYCLONE MIGHT HAVE TO CONTEND WITH
INCREASING EASTERLY SHEAR IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.
THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST IS QUITE A BIT MORE CONSERVATIVE THAN THE SHIPS
GUIDANCE...AND IT IS CLOSER TO THE GFDL SOLUTION OF A WEAKER
TROPICAL STORM THAT MIGHT NOT EVEN LAST FIVE DAYS.
interesting discussion from the NHC...
1052. Canenut
Any forecaster who uses a word like fortuitous is OK in my book...
Recon is enroute. Randy Bynon, one of WU's blogger's is on board tonight. He's got some pics from when he flew the other night in there & he posts about the flight when he gets back in his blog.
1054. eye
THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST IS QUITE A BIT MORE CONSERVATIVE THAN THE SHIPS
GUIDANCE...AND IT IS CLOSER TO THE GFDL SOLUTION OF A WEAKER
TROPICAL STORM THAT MIGHT NOT EVEN LAST FIVE DAYS
Interesting that some of the forecasters on here are a lot more confident that TD7 will go north than the NHC is,lol. I can't get it to post but the model runs from CMISS which show the XTRAP show the models going almost the oposite direction than the XTRAP. Since the XTRAP is based on reality and the models are based on theory, I think absolutes are a little premature at this time, though I too believe it will eventually turn North. But then again if it should continue to head southwest for 24-48 hrs what does that cause? I have no idea cause I never claimed to no nothing but what I see with my eyes, most of the time,lol
JER
I vote we just Wait And Observe.
Models for TD7...



1058. will40
good job on noticing the XTRAP Jer i was saying earlier that the models should shift a lil left. when there is that much difference in the XTRAP and the models i look for a change
The models seem like crack addicts looking for another fix...

Crack being a system... And the fix would be it curving out to sea...
1060. KRL
Click To Enlarge . . .

TD7
Hell and JER I'm with you. It's already been named Gordon on here and hitting the Bahamas on Friday. Give me a break.
Agreed hellsniper - No forecast can be made accurately at this point, and the NHC even said that they are not even sure any recurvature will actually occur. Therefore, no one should be acting like they are better than them, because no one here is a professional meteorologist (maybe not even meteorologists at all), and the people at the NHC are, and if they're not confident, you shouldn't be either.
They seem to put a whooollleee lot of weight in that GIAANT weakness in the ridge.
If I may just make a point - for the record, Florence is NOT a fish storm. There are other countries besides the US being affected by her.

A fish storm, to me, is one that does not impact land at all.
1065. eye
seban, do you know what the xtrap is? It is not really a model, it is if the storm stays on the same path throughout its life, where it will go, that is why it is usually always far off. Just like with Flo, it had it initially hitting GA, but that was when it was going WNW, then NW, it jumped up. It isnt a model, per se, it just says that if the storm stays on the same path throughout its life, where it would go, and we all know they dont do that.
1066. GoofOff
The XTRP was still showing west or wnw for a couple of days while the models were all showing the curve to the north and even northeast. I would assume since the models mostly agree, there should be a good reason for their tracks even if I don't have a clue as to what it is.
Hurricane Florence coming into view on radar...


1068. Zaphod
I am not up to forecasting, but have some td7 nowcasting questions...

Given that td7 has been going SW, and the WV and loop wind barbs all head SW, why would the storm curve otherwise?

Is the expectation that evolving features will catch the storm, or am I not seeing current features on the loops?
Thanks,
Zap
You're right iamcanadian... If single person is effected, this thing ceases to be a fish storm.

EAT CROW eye! ;-)

Lucky bramudians... Getting a nice Cat1
1070. eye
Flo is a fish storm, unless its eye hits land...it might do something as extratropical, but it is no longer tropical at that time. If that was the case, every system wouldnt be fish because it hits somewhere as a extratropical system...come on now...


If it is nontropical, and the NHC is not writting advisories, it no longer exists so it is no longer tropical, it is a cold core Low.
Eye... I've already made you some soup...

CrowChowder...
Rotten of me, I know......
Thanks for the posy JP. I just want it to be known I'm not taking sides here. I have no idea where it is going but as I said I tend to believe the models and the meteorologist on this blog and yes there are some. All that I'm saying is that until I see with my eyes that TD 7 turns north, then TD 7 hasn't turned north yet lol. That's is what is so great with this modern technology we don't really have to guess-we can actually watch it happen.
JER
Nite all
1075. dewfree
Code 1: lol
If the NHC is not confident TD7 will recurve, neither should any of us, and the NHC ISN'T CONFIDENT.
Err... I've got a speach tomorrow... Night.
Posted By: eye at 3:29 AM GMT on September 11, 2006.
Flo is a fish storm, unless its eye hits land...it might do something as extratropical, but it is no longer tropical at that time. If that was the case, every system wouldnt be fish because it hits somewhere as a extratropical system...come on now...

I'm still fuzzy on this but the winds are the strongest to the east of the eye?? Correct??? So if a storm is a cat 5 but the eye passes like west of land but the winds are like 200 mph it's a fish storm?? I thought the definition of a fish storm is one that only affects the fish?? I doubt that Bermudians have grown gills lately?? LOL
And I am glad it's only a cat 1 for their sake, appreciated the guy saying the lawn chairs were flying.
Going to bed, thanks for the entertainment today folks, and I got to call our local weatherman an idiot when he came on and said TD7 wasn't 7 yet when it was. Course talking to the tv is a sign of being here too much?? LOL
Terry
1079. GoofOff
Watching that Florence radar loop from Bermuda, I'm not sure that the east eye wall won't go over the island. It is close enough that it probably will not make a big difference either way. Neither one will be fun.
eye - definition of "Fish Storm":

A storm that NEVER affects any land at all during its lifetime; this includes indirect hits (like Ophelia) and during the extratropical phase (Delta and many others). Furthermore, if somebody drowns in a rip current caused by large waves hundreds of miles away, this counts as well.
Eye

i have family in Bermuda and they are affected by this Hurricane and they are not fish,they are humans!

you on the otherhand have proven what you are
Kyle - ck Mail please
1083. eye
Fish storm: one that does not hit land as a tropical entity. extratropical systems are no longer tropical. As far as I am concerned, it is Fish if it doesnt hit the mainland of the USA(though i feel for anyone affected by it, thanks Cuba for killing Ernesto, and DR, and Haiti)

Micheal, look up what is considered landfalling, if a storm doesnt hit land, and goes out to sea, it is considered a fish, if it gets close enough where they get 200mph winds, i assume it made landfall.

I am not going to change my opinion on what I call a fish, to each their own, doesnt affect the USA, it is a FISH in my book. Good night everyone, happy fish watching!!!!!!
Clarification on previous post, I was just making a generalization with the eye observation, if the hurricane does immense damage on any land it aint no fish storm!! Not saying it's a cat 5 or predicting where miss florence will go so forget that.
Terry
eye - It's past your bedtime
kyle - you've got mail!
1087. Canenut
Add "fish storm" to "wishcaster" and "hunker down" as terms I'd like to have erased from my memory.
eye
me to canenut
kylejourdan2006 you have mail
As far as I am concerned, it is Fish if it doesnt hit the mainland of the USA

That's quite arrogant of you, isn't it?
according to EYE :human beings in any other country other than mainland US are just fish.
According to eye, all the storms that hit Australia and Japan, Mexico etc are just hitting the little fishies.
one thing about "fish storms" -- the link below is a ship position density plot for the month of Aug06 see all the pretty colors - they are ships with people on them - not many - crews could be as small as 12 but not all of the ones in the path of a storm can always get out of it's way - every year at least one sends a mayday or at least a crew member gets hurt due to the rough wx
AMVER Ship density plot
kylejourdan: You were correct and I was wrong, TD7 was moving w or wsw and I thought it was moving wnw. I hope that this movement is only temporary and begins to move away from us and from any land. :-)
hey is it me or is TD 7 moveing SW a little thats what i can tell
Posted By: eye at 3:38 AM GMT on September 11, 2006.


Micheal, look up what is considered landfalling, if a storm doesnt hit land, and goes out to sea, it is considered a fish, if it gets close enough where they get 200mph winds, i assume it made landfall.



Sung to Kenny Rogers Tune, my names not Lisa,

My names not Michael, my name is Terry, I said 200 mph not so long ago........


Sorry couldn't resist.
Terry who is really going to bed.
27 Windows you crack me up!! your Canada joke, let's all be thankful we can bicker and joke freely and don't have to truly be afraid of a bad bad hurricane tonight.


so what is everyone's take on TD7
Hey Kyle,

I am not sure whom you might have been referring to regarding Tropical Depression #7's future track. In case I need to clarify my personal opinion, I stated that it was too early to know where it will ultimately end up. On the other hand, I also pointed out that it is actually possible to make a best educated guess based on real time data associated with the other weather systems that will dictate its future course.

As it stands now, it really isn't a matter of if it will recurve, but rather as to exactly when it will do so. In other words, even if it were to get very close to the U.S. east coast, it would still most likely recurve whether that was into the U.S. (i.e. up the Eastern Seaboard) or out to sea. At this time, the atmospheric setup makes recurvature well away from the U.S. the most likely scenario. That being said, any forecast more than 3 days out generally consists of pretty large forecast errors. This is why you won't see me making too many forecasts unless it is within 5 days of a particular land mass being threatened.

To reiterate, my previous post certainly was not intended to be disagreeable with any other, but just simply sharing my own personal opinion based solely on my own knowledge and experience. That experience has taught me well that tropical meteorology is a most inexact science, and one thing I am sure of is that the precise point a tropical cyclone is expected to be in 5 days from now, will not be exactly where it is at that time (whether E or W of that specific point on a map). In short, there is plenty of time to just watch it and see how the atmosphere evolves.:) I hope this at least provides clarification as to what I personally think, if there was ever any doubt. Once again, I hope you and everyone else has a great rest of the night.:)

Most sincerely,
Tony
will40 - you've got mail!
NCF - your adult logic is very rare here I feel - just my opinion LOL
I guess no one looked at my link to the plot of ships int the area?
Didn't a Gordon make alot of loop de loops in 1994 right into Florida??
im tired and the insensitive people in this blog are making me want to regurgitate...

pilot is right.....there are humans on ships too

no storm is a fish storm
so....
lets stop calling them that,its wrong

good nite and sweet dreams

say prayer for our fellow human beings on the

Island of Bermuda
Just for clarification, any hurricane that impacts any portion of a land mass with hurricane force winds is considered a direct hit for the NHC HURADAT landfalling database. Some examples are Emily from 1993, Alex of 2004, and Ophelia just last season.

I would hope that the term "fish storm" is consistent with no land areas (U.S. or otherwise) being impacted by these systems. Even then, I think of the many lives that have been lost at sea from them as well. Anyway, just my two cents worth on that subject.:)
Has anyone seen the big wave coming off Africa? It lools kinda big.Just thought i would comment on it.
night all
1110. Canenut
A real (I promise never to use it again) FISH storm

How can it rain fish?

By Edward Green


The latest in a series of bizarre British weather phenomena is a rain of fish. It may sound like the stuff of legend, but such events are increasingly well documented.
On Wednesday, the village of Knighton, in Powys, was reported to have endured such a fishy deluge. Not a story easily believed - an odd site for a Biblical-style plague, one might think, perhaps to be followed by the waters of the nearby River Teme running red with blood?

But in fact, as the Met Office explains, such occurrences are not as uncommon as they may sound. Not only are they not quite the miraculous events that they seem, rains of fish - and other even more surprising objects - are reported with some frequency.


sporteguy yup he did crossed over twice
Hey Pilot,

Thanks for the kind words, and you even made the point about those out at sea before I did.:) I am a sloooow typist (lol)
Looks like Florence just took a hard wobble east. Taking some shear from the west. The top blew east & the bottom followed in the next few frames.
you are welcome ncf - credit where credit due - and canenut right on I had forgoitten I saw info on that several years ago - It rains frogs too - ROFL
Do the water temperatures in the Caribbean and Western Atlantic cool off now??
Surface water temps are effected by many things - wind (which causes upwelling as the surface water is moved), solar radiation, currents, rainfall, to name the big ones - but mainly we are past mid summer so yes the temps will fall but who knows how fast.....
1117. Canenut
Max potential


Maximum potential hurricane SST graphic

Posted By: sporteguy03 at 4:11 AM GMT on September 11, 2006.
Do the water temperatures in the Caribbean and Western Atlantic cool off now??


No, but the winds will pick up and eventually end the hurricane season before the waters are too cold to make canes. Last year a tropical cyclone found enough warm water and slow winds to form on the last day of the year.
sporteguy~ looks like more heating is in order. You can see the faint Florence wake in the 1st one. Waters were hot & deep there. Much more obvious what she has cooled when you look down 100m under the surface.
SST nowcast
SST 120hr forecast
TD7 is actually very organized for a depression right now. I would expect the NHC to increase winds to 35mph (if not 40mph) at 5am or 11am tomorrow if current organization trend continues. The only minor setback is the fact the the deepest convection is south of the circulation, although the center is still surrounded by moderate-strong thunderstorms. There is already a banding feature setting up to the east of TD7 as well, a definite sign of strengthening.

Well, I guess everyone has bailed out - see u all later
Wow!!! TD7 really looking better organized. Very compact system at this time but truly the most organized TD this season. It could be Gordon by the 5am advisory.
pilot is right.....there are humans on ships too
and them humans have the technology to steer their vessels away from the storm. I see no reason for fishey storms to be bad.
by the way, the NHC calls such storms "outside runners" check it out for yourselves.
1124. dees006
hurricaneadvisories.com is forecasting TD7 to turn north similiar to Flo. Any thoughts on this out there?
Posted By: ncforecaster at 3:56 AM GMT on September 11, 2006.
Hey Kyle,
..........
Ncforecaster, in you post to Kyle you say that the most plausible track for TD7 is recurving to affect the eastern US coast. Is this because of the trough that is guiding Florence and why do they/you think it will be in place then or back in place?? Is it true it's stationary and protecting the eastern seaboard, if that is so how is it picking up TD7 which is moving in a different direction now than Florence did and is in a different position isn't it?? Or is the trough so big it will reach down and grab TD7, not being facetious just wanting to know you opinion since I looked @ the models on the tutorial page on tropical forecasting and just don't get the steering currents that will effect TD7. Hey at least I'm honest, I understand the warming and the shear and the theory behind steering but just the theory on that.
Terry
1126. dees006
nevermind that last post, NCForecaster answered my question in a previous post. Thanks
It could be Gordon "unofficially" now Weatherfan, as it could definitely be mistaken for a tropical storm if someone didn't know it was a depression. Whilst it was 93L is was producing winds of over 35kts in some spots, and that was over 12 hours ago according to the Naval Research Lab (NRL).

The difference between TD7 and Florence is size. Florence struggled in strengthening quickly because she was so large. With TD7 being a small, compact storm, strengthening can occur quite quickly, and is very common in these weaker, smaller systems. But, on another note, rapid dissipation is also very common in smaller, weaker circulations, but that doesn't appear to be the cast with TD7.
Current weather conditions in Bermuda (sorry if this has been posted already)

Link
Bigtrucker - you ever sail those waters - not all of the ships are new nor are they captained by captain america - They also have engine problem, Comms failures and Home Offices that push them to keep to schedules which cause them to take chances that , when a storm turns, deepens, or in any way acts different than forecasted, may cause the ship and crew to experience heavy Wx - Been there done that and it aint fun
1130. Canenut
There is no sign of TD7 on the 0Z GFS model, so questions will abound for some time. I will however have to wait up for the GFDL model and the latest vortex message into Flo, both at about 130A EDT.
anyone feel that "Gordan" might not turn north
icepilot point well taken. well sufficient to say this wont be an outside runner because it will hit or com close to hitting Bermuda. thanks for the insight
TD7 looks more impressive than Florence. >_<
no prob BT - and I didn't know the term "outside runner" Learn every day
Question guys what are the possibilities that TD7 could reform its center closer to the thunderstorm activity and if so what would this do to the track if anything?
crisis - anythings posible but the northward trak is the most likely the future of this wx system - even if the center reforms Geograpicly, it's a small variation.
See all you guys later - tomorrow i'm on the road and next Sat heading down to Roatan - Pls keep those GOM systems on hold till I finish my first vacation in 5 yrs......
I dont think that TD 7 will ever reach hurricane strength or cross the US coast, but I'm a LITTLE less certain than with Florence.
thanx icepilot i have a cruise coming up lol so i don't want anything messing that up
I dont think that TD 7 will ever reach hurricane strength or cross the US coast, but I'm a LITTLE less confident than I was with Florence. BTW, my forecast peak intensity for Florence of 90mph(made last night) is lookn good as she appears DONE strengthening! Sorry, didnt think the first one posted, the site was slow.
Canenut, u still there???
1143. Canenut
Yes sir I am...
Think in terms of a week - with today's tech you almost allways (BUT not 100%) have 5 days warning as long as you figure if a storm might hit you - it can hit you. But the Cruise industry (especially the big boys) don't take chances with paying customers - AND their ships are fast with redundent systems. They can usually get out of the way unless caught in some geograpical hole that they can't get out of before the storm arrives - VERY rare and prob nothing to fret about - They may change the emkbarcation or disembarkation ports or some mid cruise ports of call but generally with them - the show goes on - you may just not visit a port you were hoping for -Grin
I'm not expecting any suprises with the 1:30 models, u?...I'll take that as a no?
I know this is offtopic but:

5 years later Remembering 9/11
1147. Canenut
Well the GFS didn't pick up TD7 at all, so I'm not expecting anything from the 06Z numericals. The GFDL did however catch it and I will be interested to see what if any changes it makes.

I'm out
WeatherfanPR, that is NEVER off topic.
Canenut, when does the GFDL come out, 2am?
oh icepilot trust me i know i work for carnival cruise lines im just asking just in case
1152. Canenut
The actual lat/lon coordinates should be out soon. This is for the 0Z run. Then at 2am or so two things happen 1) the graphical version becomes available and 2) the 6Z run is started.
RAYFROMBOSTON, You are right.
Kool, keep me updated...brrrrrr, 45 here in Boston, s***, no wonder Florence didn't wanna come here!! I'd rather go to Bermuda too!
Hey Groundman (Terry),

I certainly didn't mean to imply that the U.S. East coast was the most "plausible" track scenario by any means. Actually, I was using that as an illustration that it is not a matter of IF recurvature will eventually take place, but rather a matter of exactly when it will occur. That was the "even if" scenario that I feel is pretty unlikely at this time. I also stated that it was/is way too early to make a definite forecast on a system that is so far away from any land masses.

That being said, we have trough after trough moving into the Western Atlantic from off the U.S. East Coast, and that pattern is unlikely to change anytime soon. With that being the case, it is pretty unlikely that Tropical Depression #7 would get close enough to be a real threat to the U.S. It appears (most likely right now) to be more a matter of whether it will impact Bermuda or go to the east or west of there in time. This is simply my own personal opinion based on the current atmospheric setup that is in place, and should be in place for the next 7 days. Keep in mind, this is what I consider to be the "most likely" scenario at this time, for any forecast more than 3 days out is consistent with pretty large errors, relative to exact track and intensity. This is why you won't see me posting on it unless it gets within 5 days of threatening a particular land mass. Regardless, I respect others opinions just as much and we have plenty of time to watch and see how it all evolves.

Please reread my previous post that I wrote to Kyle that you referenced, for I believe you unintentionally misinterpreted it.:) Most importantly, I hope you and everyone else here has a great rest of the night.:)

Most sincerely,
Tony
WeatherfanPR, amen brother!
1157. Canenut
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN 07L

INITIAL TIME 0Z SEP 11

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 19.9 54.3 265./ 5.0
6 20.6 54.9 319./ 8.1
12 21.0 55.3 315./ 6.1
18 22.0 56.3 314./13.1
24 22.5 56.8 325./ 7.1
30 23.2 57.2 324./ 7.6
36 24.0 57.5 340./ 8.6
42 25.1 57.8 345./11.0
48 26.0 57.8 1./ 9.5
54 27.0 57.7 3./ 9.3
60 28.1 57.7 1./11.8
66 29.2 57.7 0./10.3
72 30.1 57.6 8./ 9.7
78 31.2 57.5 4./10.4
84 32.1 57.4 7./ 9.6
90 32.9 57.3 5./ 8.1
96 33.5 57.1 18./ 6.0
102 34.0 57.2 353./ 5.4
108 34.4 57.0 30./ 4.0
114 34.6 56.3 73./ 5.7
120 34.8 55.1 80./10.3
126 35.2 53.6 76./12.8

ncforecaster, I agree 110%! I hope this pattern holds cause we will have one helluva winter up here! : )
Recurvature at 57.8 huh, like I said, another fish storm! Is that the 2am GFDL Canenut?
amen!!!
I'd luv to visit PR someday, I here ur island is beautiful!
1162. Canenut
Ray, yes it is. According to the model, when the blackout is over, we should find TD7 moving NW. I just don't think it would go from 265 to 320 degrees in 6 hours...

Yes the island is very beautiful and the people are very affective but as in all places there are good things and not so good things.
I agree with u, but if u remember it did the same thing with Florence, it will ultimatley be irrelevant as it will only effect the EXACT point of recurvature(maybe 62 longitude vs 58).
1165. Canenut
I don't think recon will make it by the 2am advisory still ~150 miles south of center...
WeatherfanPR, some parts of Boston aint so pretty either. : ) No place is a utopian society!
Caution from NHC: THIS IS A HIGHLY UNCERTAIN
FORECAST...AND THE NORTHWARD MOTION LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD CAN
BE INTERPRETED TO MEAN WE ARE NOT YET SURE IF THIS CYCLONE WILL
RECURVE.
R they goin into Florence or TD 7?? Finaly some action in the Gulf... 6.0 earthquake!(didnt say it was tropical) : )
1169. Canenut
Ray, I hear you. I'm just a little less optimistic about this one, like you are. The NHC isn't certain as evident in their 03Z discussion on TD7

"THIS IS A HIGHLY UNCERTAIN
FORECAST...AND THE NORTHWARD MOTION LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD CAN
BE INTERPRETED TO MEAN WE ARE NOT YET SURE IF THIS CYCLONE WILL
RECURVE."
Nebula420, Like I said earlier, I'm not as certain as I was with Florence, but it will go out to sea...we'll see.
1171. Canenut
You beat me Nebula...

Recon going to Flo
Canenut I was just thinking the same thing.
05:30:30 28.73 -66 17212
just now dropping in altitude.
I'm not tryn to be self righteous(as I sometimes can be), but the overall pattern and FAIRLY good model consencus tells me out to sea.
I wonder if the high will close in behind Florence and on top of td7?
Skepony, what do u think?... I think they find a slightly weaker storm.
Model consensus? What model consensus? The models haven't even really initiated this storm yet so I wouldn't put much faith in what these models have to say. What until about the third run.
There is a lot of troughiness over the East Coast so that bodes well, hoewever, small storms have been known to stay south of dying or stalled fronts only to be pulled up later. If this storm goes just over Puerto Rico and does not turn NW then there is a very good chance of it making it into Florida or the Gulf. Odds 70-30 going north
1178. Canenut
The BAMM, and BAMD are run off the GFS data and the GFS has no data on TD7.
With the longwave pattern, I wouldn't hold ur breath on a big change once they do, u will see, but hey hope ur right. It could even end up dissipating in this caotic environment, I'm fairly confident it will never c hurricane strength.
1180. Canenut
Didn't make it in time.....

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. FLORENCE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL BE REACHING THE
CENTER OF FLORENCE WITHIN THE NEXT FEW MINUTES.
SOME STRENGTHENING
IS STILL POSSIBLE BEFORE FLORENCE BYPASSES BERMUDA.

FLORENCE IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 260 MILES...415 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 975 MB...28.79 INCHES.
I'm thinking they're gonna be late on the 2am fix:)...& it might be weaker. It got shoved east right before blackout, cloud tops first. Looked pretty disruped at 1st & the bottom moved east back under.

It looks a little east of the forecast path to me. Are my eyes fooling me?
Mon Sep 11 2006
0544 GMT
Latitude 29.7 N
Longitude 66.0 W
No turbulence
Currently flying in the clear
Flight altitude 10007 feet (3050 meters)
Flight level winds 260 degrees at 47 knots (54 mph)
Temperature 10 C Dewpoint 9 C
Remarks: AF303 0506A FLORENCE OB 05

1183. Canenut
Florence is heading due North and slower, go figure.....
If it weakened, the hunters didn't make it in time for the 2AM advisory. It's definitely not looking as healthy right now, though that's mainly on the western side, and Bermuda's to the east.

But LOL at Wunderground's Atlantic infared. It distorts Florence so it looks bigger than Tip.
1185. Canenut
Wonder why they're doing a 10k' penetration tonight?
Also, does anybody know if a flight into TD7/Gordon is scheduled tomorrow?
1187. Canenut
Sprocket


ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES)
FLIGHT ONE... ADDED.
A. 11/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01IIA INVEST
C. 11/1600Z
D. 20.0N 58.0W
E. 1730Z TO 2230Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
G. TEAL 70

Sprocketeer, thats what I was wondering.
3pm, thanx Canenut! : )
The 72 hour surface prog at nhc has another surface low heading wnw to nw off the coast of South America? TD8 ?
Nebula420, that would prolly have a shot at the US.
canenut~ I guess better safe than sorry...The dvorak didn't see to think it had weakend much..
Date : 11 SEP 2006 Time : 034500 UTC
Lat : 30:24:17 N Lon : 65:41:41 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.5 / 977.1mb/ 77.0kt
She's still kickin..
05:56:30 30.53 -66 10004 265 76 78 57 50
05:57:00 30.56 -66 10010 259 76 78 55 53
How in the hell did Dvorak estimate that sat pic at that high an intensity!?!?
Skyepony, is that 76 and 78kt?!
2:05 Am discussion:

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN HAS FORMED EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS. AT 11/0300 UTC THE CENTER OF TROPICAL
DEPRESSION SEVEN WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 54.5W OR ABOUT 525
MILES...845 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING SLOWLY TO THE WEST NEAR 5 KT. ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1012 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
NEAR 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. FOR MORE DETAILS PLEASE READ THE
LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC OR THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER
MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC. THIS TROPICAL CYCLONE...VERY MUCH UNLIKE
FLORENCE...IS COMPACT. OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS THIS SYSTEM
WAS FEELING THE EFFECTS OF NORTHERLY WIND SHEAR EXPOSING THE LOW
LEVEL CENTER TO THE NORTH. HOWEVER...IT ESCAPED THE SHEAR ON
SUNDAY HELPING THE CONVECTION TO WRAP AROUND THE CENTER.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION EXISTS FROM 18N-21N BETWEEN
53W-57W...STRONGEST TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER. SOME
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND THE
DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON MONDAY.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
mph
So she did weaken a little, thats what I thought. ; )
Slowly to the west a 5mph tells me no steering currents for TD7.
1200. Canenut
Recon is through the center

0609 3116N 06611W 03046 5111 244 004 166 094 005 02975
Yea Nebula420, I might be wrong this time, but I'm still goin out to sea on that one.
Canenut, thats not 94 mph is it??!
Those are just a small taste of some flight level winds on the way in...

Moved the TD7 cone of concern more NW


center fix 06:09:30 31.3 -66.2 10004 329 3 5 60 50
1204. Canenut
No that 94 was dewpoint, the winds were 4mph gusting to 5 in the eye, we'll see what they find as they emerge on the northern side.
RayfromBoston, that certainly is a high probability, but as we've seen this year Forecasting has been thrown some curveballs and it pays not to get too complacent.
Seemed like a wide eye?
Nebula420, agreed, thanx again Canenut!
Look out for early October out of the gulf
I see a Mitch like storm for later in the season.
rubs crystal ball.
Nebula420, I have been saying that I think that is the only way the US gets hit from here on out, Skyepony, u might be a little too far west on ur danger area for Florence, I dont think Boston and the cape have to worry about it unless u are referring to high surf??
Yeah ray, just too much chaos in the Atlantic
1213. Canenut
OK, let's not use this run of the GFDL

Link
1214. acduke
Not sure if anyone has posted this or felt it...

But FORGET HURRICANES, there was a 6.0 magnitude earthquake in the gulf this weekend.

Link

Apparently a lot of people felt it. Good thing there wasn't a tsunami...I can't even imagine what that would do to the gulf coast...it would be like a catagory 5 storm surge up and down the entire stretch of the gulf with no warning! It would make Katrina look like child's play. It says there was a smaller earthquake in the area in February. Let's hope it stops now! Don't need any more earthquakes, tsunamis or hurricanes! I suppose this is global warming's fault too...lol.
Mitch!!! 185mph winds at peak and catastrophic flooding in central America my senior year of HS!
Yeah AcDuke, I mentioned it, crazy huh!? Thank god it was over the gulf and JUST below the 6.5 threshold for tsunamis!!!!!
1217. Canenut
Max winds 71kts at 10000' on the north side. Vortex message soon. Then BED!!!
I remember it was forecasted to lift northward but instead was too low and the fronts missed it and it spun and spun around Nicaragua. A large sail boat and it's crew were lost.
Maybe the earth is getting arthiritis (sp?)from all the oil drilling in the gulf;)
Yea, Canenut that GFDL confirms my fish storm theory for TD7, but I dont think it will get that strong! Good nite all! : )
You missed the gulf tsunami jokes..
Good night Ray and good night all. I'm out for tonight. Short night.
1223. Canenut
URNT12 KNHC 110637
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 11/06:09:00Z
B. 31 deg 17 min N
066 deg 12 min W
C. 700 mb 2900 m
D. NA kt
E. NA deg nm
F. 265 deg 068 kt
G. 165 deg 046 nm
H. 977 mb
I. 14 C/ 3050 m
J. 17 C/ 3044 m
K. 9 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF303 0506A FLORENCE OB 07
MAX FL WIND 68 KT S QUAD 05:56:20 Z
EYE WALL 320-050 COMPLETELY OPEN ELSEWHERE

Storm FLORENCE: Observed by AF #303
Storm #06 In Atlantic Ocean
Total Flights For Storm #06: 05
Date/Time of Recon Report: September 11, 2006 06:09:00 Zulu
Position Of The Center: 31 17 ' N 066 12 ' W (31.28 N 66.20 W)
Minimum Height Measured At Standard Level Of 700 Millibars: 2900 Meters (Normal: 3011 Meters)
Maximum Surface Winds Were Estimated At: 0 Knots (0 MPH)
Estimated Surface Winds Were Measured At: N/A Nautical Miles (N/A miles) From Center At Bearing
Maximum Flight Level Winds Near Center Were 068 Knots (78.2 MPH) From 265
Maximum Flight Level Winds Were Measured 046 Nautical Miles (52.9 Miles) From Center At Bearing 165
Minimum Pressure: 977 Millibars (28.850 Inches)
Maxium Flight Level Temperature / Pressure Altitude Outside The Eye: 14C (57.2F) / 3050 Meters
Maximum Flight Level Temperature / Pressure Altitude Inside The Eye: 17C (62.6F) / 3044 Meters
Dewpoint Temperature / Sea Surface Temperature Inside The Eye: 9C (48.2F) / NAC (NAF)
Eye Wall Was Characterized As Being: NA
Eye Form Was Characterized As Being: NA
Center Fix Established Using: Penetration Radar Wind Pressure Temperature
Center Fix Established At Level(s): 700 Millibars
Navigational Accuracy Measured At: 0.02 Nautical Miles
Meteorological Accuracy Measured At: 1 Nautical Miles

Other Information:
1: Maximum Flight Level Winds Were 68 KT S Quadrant at 05:56:20 Z
2: EYE WALL 320-050 COMPLETELY OPEN ELSEWHERE
Peak intensity...90mph!!! : )(forecast verification) Goodnite.
Center looks about on track. Dvorak was right on with the pressure.

nite ya'll
1227. Canenut
Goodnight everyone.
Posted By: ncforecaster at 5:27 AM GMT on September 11, 2006.
Hey Groundman (Terry),.....

Thanks for reply in case you are still up. Sorry about the confusion but now I DO see what you are saying.
THANKS for the clarification.
Terry
1229. CFLSW
Yeah AcDuke, I mentioned it, crazy huh!? Thank god it was over the gulf and JUST below the 6.5 threshold for tsunamis!!!!!
Ok what do you mean by this?
1230. CFLSW
Rayfromboston?
1232. Hatchet
LOL
1233. CFLSW
Ok since no answer Folks there is no such a thig as "6.5 threshold for tsunamis!!!!!"
There are many factors to an earthquake
Causing a tsunami.
Such as in wich way are the plates moving.
Wich fault and where on wich fault is the quake occurring. just to start.
A 1 can cause a tsunami depending on just what is taking place on the ocean floor.
the largest earthquake ever in the gulf would still not cause a tsunami, there needs to be dual fault lines in order for a tsunami to form, which do not occur in the gulf.
1235. CFLSW
Tsunami's can be caused by things other than quakes.
Remember the 30 to 40 footer that hit Datonay Beach not to many years ago i9n the middle of the night. I do I lived in Deland Fl It was caused by a simple slide in the atlantic. The slide was not caused by a quake.
if a 6.5 happened off the coast of the Pacific Northwest, where a major fault line is, then there would be a catastrophic tsunami.
yes but that slide can only occur where 2 fault lines are present
1238. CFLSW
That is so incorrect S.O.T.H
there is a fault line in the middle of the atlantic, but the only fault line near the gulf is precisely west of cuba where tsunamis could only effect south florida
1240. CFLSW
Please state facts. Slide happen all the time on the ocean floor that have nothing to do with quakes.
if you simply look at all the fault lines you can easily tell where all of the continents on earth were connected at one point in time, they are all eerily in the shape of their nearest continents.
Tsunamis, also called seismic sea waves or, incorrectly, tidal waves, generally are caused by earthquakes, less commonly by submarine landslides, infrequently by submarine volcanic eruptions and very rarely by a large meteorite impact in the ocean.
1244. CFLSW
Water perssure has the same effect on rocks and sand as it does you and I.
Small cracks in rock formations at the bottom of the ocean get bigger over time. As the pressure makes the cracks bigger untill chuncks fall off the sides of underwater mountian ranges.
VERY VERY VERY RARE to be caused by anything other than a fidgeting fault line, and thats a FACT
The tsunami generating process is more complicated than a sudden push against the column of ocean water. The earthquake's magnitude and depth, water depth in the region of tsunami generation, the amount of vertical motion of the sea floor, the velocity of such motion, whether there is coincident slumping of sediments and the efficiency with which energy is transferred from the earth's crust to ocean water are all part of the generation mechanism.
1247. CFLSW
GEOTECH FOR Ardaman and Assoc. 6yrs while going throught school. Sinkhole investegation team with same. 2 yrs with Universal Engineering Sciences.
Same job
1249. CFLSW
Also 1 yr with Law Engineering. I was hired for that year to do a studie on The atlantic fault Line. Core drill to be exact. I drill the cores For the expansion of The Ten Vols Stadium Expansion Yrs ago that just happens to sit right on The Atlantic Fault Line.
a sinkhole would simply not have the right vertical motion, slumping of sediments, and efficiency of energy to produce a tsunami of any notable size or magnitude, im not doubting it could cause one, but nothing to talk about
1251. CFLSW
Please Dont try to tell me what it takes to cause a Tsunami. Stick to the weather.
1253. CFLSW
I never said a sinkhole would cause one.
i dont think you have an idea of what youre talking about CF, if you could simply state a fact that could prove me wrong i might believe you, but right now im under the impression i know plenty more about the subject.
1255. CFLSW
I never said a sinkhole would cause a Tsunami
"Posted By: CFLSW at 7:24 AM GMT on September 11, 2006.
Water perssure has the same effect on rocks and sand as it does you and I. Small cracks in rock formations at the bottom of the ocean get bigger over time. As the pressure makes the cracks bigger untill chuncks fall off the sides of underwater mountian ranges."

those "chunks" falling off would not provide enough force to cause a tsumani. when it happens, or if it has happened, tell me the exact date and position of occurrence and ill believe you, until then, you have no argument.
your scenario is right up there with the likelihood of a meteorite
1258. Hatchet
CFLSW on the ropes no wait down for the count
1259. Hatchet
StoryOfTheHurricane winner with a KO in the 5th round VERY AMUSING but time for bed have fun
im off too, give him time for some research, if you find anything CFLSW please email it to me, id love to be proven wrong
1262. CFLSW
This is all I need. Link
For starters there is a differance from faults and fault lines. And what occures at each You have tried to twist a few things.
This link above says all that needs to be said. Your education about faults and fault lines come from TV.
1263. CFLSW
You posted a pic say here are the fault lines Hmm you is so rong
your link isn't to anything and that makes absolutely no sense CFLSW, just admit defeat and retreat.
it is a map showing how the investigations of the International Geophysical Year have correlated all the known fault systems on earth. Just a few years ago scientists did not realize that the fault lines known on land were connected under the sea in a vast network on a worldwide scope.
your link is proven wrong by my previous post, they are all interconnected
your link is from 2003, they mustve still been in oblivion to how the fault lines actually work
1269. Hatchet
CFLSW did you say TV, don't worry no one here will hold it against you. What you do on your own time in the privacy of your own home is your own business. With that I must go My ride awaits (he he)
1270. CFLSW
OK here it is notice what it says can cause one.
Slam Dunk Link
1271. CFLSW
Landslides are listed thank you and notice where the link is
1273. CFLSW
Here let me just post it here
"What is a tsunami?
A tsunami (pronounced tsoo-nah-mee) is a wave train, or series of waves, generated in a body of water by an impulsive disturbance that vertically displaces the water column. Earthquakes, landslides, volcanic eruptions, explosions, and even the impact of cosmic bodies, such as meteorites, can generate tsunamis. Tsunamis can savagely attack coastlines, causing devastating property damage and loss of life."
What is that oh ya it does state landslides can cause them. Oh and notice it states landslides thats landslides, notice its not connected to the earthquake. they are seperated by the "'"
1274. CFLSW
Wait wasnt this hole thing about you said the slide could only occur by quake?
I don't know what this argument is about but I though landslides caused tsunami
1277. CFLSW
Her is your post
Posted By: StoryOfTheHurricane at 7:18 AM GMT on September 11, 2006.
yes but that slide can only occur where 2 fault lines are present
hawaii has had some bad ones I believe
1279. CFLSW
They do. The point is the slide does not always occur at 2 fault lines.
There have also been underwater 'avalanches' which have generated tsunami in the past where I live in the South Eastern Pacific
1281. CFLSW
And if you read here link below it states just what I was saying about falling debris
Link
1282. CFLSW
But what I was saying is that water pressure can cause rocks to crack and fall wich does happen all the time. also I never said it has caused a tsunami but it can. The falling deris from slide caused by quakes or errosion can have same effect
1283. CFLSW
Thank You weathergal4 I have been trying to tell them that.
Dude, the rocks that face water pressure formed under those conditions. Water pressure does NOT cause tsunamis... but gradual erosion of rocks, weight of overlying sediment, and earthquakes can all trigger underwater landslides, and thus tsunamis.
Mountains can and do have pieces fall off, triggering tsunamis. The southeast corner of the big island of Hawaii has built up so that it has a sharp slope, and can barely support the weight of the rock anymore. This chunk of rock is about the size of Rhode Island, and several miles thick. (you can read a bit about it here.
When parts of this fall off, they will generate massive tsunamis. Mount Etna and one of the Canary Islands are also poised to do the same thing. Of course none of these things will probably happen in our lifetimes.
A similar event also caused tsunamis off the coast of New Guinea several years ago... I wish I remembered when so I could look it up.
I must say that the gulf is NOT prime tsunami territory, but they most definately can occur there.
1285. CFLSW
OK I never said water pressure causes a tsunami.
Pressure is part of the errosion that causes the slide (sand and rocks) to fall that can cause a tsunami.
Please reread my post.
1286. CFLSW
And yes I agree they can occur in the GOM there are a few but just afew places it could occur.
I think
1287. CFLSW
Edit to post above
Let me just say that there are faults everywhere. Not all are due to plate tectonics. Faults under Lake Erie occasionally cause quakes that do some minor damage. They are caused by the earth slowly rebounding after being compressed by the weight of the glaciers of the last ice age. Scandanavia can get some pretty nasty quakes for the same reason.
Tsunamis can be caused by earthquakes alone, if the tectonic plates move enough to displace a large quantity of water, but landslides are just as big of a cause.
1289. CFLSW
WOOOO HOOO Thank You Caffinehog!
Oh, I should also mention that volcanic events can cause tsunamis.
The explosion of Krakatoa in 1883 caused a tsunami... but the real tsunami was not from the explosion, but from the collapse of the island to form a caldera. Suddenly, the ocean had a big hole to fill, which caused the tsunami. This was a LOT bigger than a sinkhole! The ocean rushed in, and once it filled the hole, it couldn't stop, so it kept going, hence creating the tsunami.
1291. louastu
TD 7 now has winds of 35 mph, and a pressure of 1010 mb.
1292. CFLSW
Lol Well hell yes but in theroy that is what a sinkhole is.
Think about it. Volcano erupts hence lava now not under island as before rite? So Island falls in hole. Same with sink hole. We have limestone here in Florida as the main confining layer. at least northcentral Florida south. Same thing happens durring rainy season limestone gets saturated and basicly washes out creating a void as if lava blew out from a volocano. the gronnd above falls in.
Now for the crapy part of this hole thing. Florida has 2 times a year that they start happening. When lime stone wet and washes a way its rainy season. Then when dry season gets here the Lime Stone acts like a dried up brittle spung. It will become very poures and crumble. Hence caving in then the ground above falls in. A Typical sink hole that measures 10 feet deep at the surface has fallen 12 to 18 times that at center fall.
1293. CFLSW
correction 10 to 18 times.
The Krakatoa caldera is about 8km in diameter. And sinkholes start out filled with water. If they formed under the ocean, water wouldn't go in because they'd already be full.
1295. louastu
Florence now has winds of 80 mph, and the pressure is 976 mb.
1296. CFLSW
Posted By: Caffinehog at 9:03 AM GMT on September 11, 2006.
The Krakatoa caldera is about 8km in diameter. And sinkholes start out filled with water. If they formed under the ocean, water wouldn't go in because they'd already be full.

That the crapy part in Florida your post "And sinkholes start out filled with water." Not true in Florida. We get them here during the dry season because the lime stone that has started to dissolve becomes like a brittle sponge and just crumbles. Then the ground falls in. And I should have said dissolve. Not wash out. All though we also have underground washouts. Many Springs here.
1297. louastu
We get them here during the dry season because the lime stone that has started to dissolve becomes like a brittle sponge and just crumbles.

This doesn't quite make sense to me. I understand the idea of limestone crumbling, but I don't understand what would happen to that crumbled material. The only way I can think of that this material could be removed, is by water. If the crumbled limestone is not removed, then it will still take up the same amount of space, and there would be no sinkhole.

I know that, based on soil conditions, drainage can take a long time. Is it possible that there is just poor drainage in Florida, and that not all the water reaches the limestone layer before the dry season?


a 2 for the price of one shot!

Good morning & have a safe 9-11 :)
1299. CFLSW
Ok think of it like this.
Limestone when it has started to dissolve
Looks like a spoung. holes all through it.
so there is open space. when it crumbles.
like compacting a sponge. The sink hole during the dry seasons most of the time are not as deep as during the wet season.
louatsu,
The limestone is like swiss cheese. All that happens is the holes collapse. It happened this summer to a giant lake in the Orlando are. A sink hole opened up and the lake dissappeared. All of the water in the lake went into the hole.
1301. CFLSW
louastu post
I know that, based on soil conditions, drainage can take a long time. Is it possible that there is just poor drainage in Florida, and that not all the water reaches the limestone layer before the dry season?
Not likley remember Florida. Water table 6 inches in some place. Confining layer or lime stone is found from surface to cant remember but I think in most places less than 100 ft.
1302. CFLSW
Yes we lost Scott lake this year in Lakeland to a sink hole
Now I am pretty sure the lake will fill back up from the rain water after all settles.
poor Bermuda

1st Florence, now Gordon
1305. CFLSW
There are basicly 3 type of confining layers here in florida.
Lime stone
Clay
Hard Pan (This is some cool stuff) Of them this is the toughest. It is old rotted trees and other organics. And it is supper hard. You just would not think with what it is made of it would be but it is the hardest confining layer type in florida.
Chert rock is found in florida also but in limited places and usually bolders. Not layered
1306. CFLSW
Scott lake has started to fill allready. It was a puddle for 6 months. And at the deepest part it used to be about 18 feet I think.
1307. CFLSW
My home town sinkhole
Link
1308. louastu
Alright,

That makes sense now. I was thinking of it as being a solid layer.
i would say keep these tracks up, but poor Bermuda is in the way
1310. IKE
Neither one of those systems has ever been a threat to the US...Florence and TD7.

About the only way a system can effect the US, is for it to originate in the GOM or western Caribbean. And with another cold front passing thru the gulf states the middle of this week, those prospects diminish even more.

Maybe something could pose a problem to south Florida or the islands. The rest of the eastern US looks safe. 80 more days left and it's officially over...
thats what I said before, a Wilma like storm
1312. IKE
Bermuda has light rain...SSE winds at 45, gusting to 64 mph.
1313. IKE
Posted By: WPBHurricane05 at 5:12 AM CDT on September 11, 2006.

thats what I said before, a Wilma like storm


Yup...I remember you saying that. You're right...that's about all there is left of this season for the US. The weather pattern just isn't conducive.
We are now officially past the peak day of historical storm occurrence and more than half way through the official season.
1316. IKE
Good. Bet this season ends early...like 1 system, maybe 2 in October and that's it.
my prediction for this year:
a total of 12 named storms
2 hurricanes
0-1 major
1318. IKE
That's 6 more storms. I predicted 8 total...good bet I'm under by a few. 10-12 is probably a good bet.

0-1 major....that's a good bet.

It's amazing the difference in 1 year.
1319. SLU
Posted By: WPBHurricane05 at 10:12 AM GMT on September 11, 2006.

thats what I said before, a Wilma like storm
Posted By: IKE at 10:10 AM GMT on September 11, 2006.

Neither one of those systems has ever been a threat to the US...Florence and TD7.

About the only way a system can effect the US, is for it to originate in the GOM or western Caribbean. And with another cold front passing thru the gulf states the middle of this week, those prospects diminish even more.

Maybe something could pose a problem to south Florida or the islands. The rest of the eastern US looks safe. 80 more days left and it's officially over...



These types of "Western Caribbean Storms" usually form in October and move across Cuba and the Bahamas towards the eastern US so don't feel too lucky yet. There is bound to be at least one "Major" storm this year ... as there usually is even in the quietest of hurricane seasons.
the big red 1 thats still on the aftrican coast might be like debby
i imagine a tropical wave would have to make it there, have low shear, and go from there
1323. IKE
After last season...this is great for the US.

I know there's still possibilities, but it isn't this week. Another cold front is moving thru.
1324. IKE
And that big red 1=fish storm.
yep just like debby
1326. CFLSW
SLU I hope you are rong. Because if what Dr. Masters posted about el nino and what you are saying. Comes true then there is no place for a storm to go but over Florida. in 2004 I lived in SE winter Haven at hwy 27. Where X markes the spot. What a crapy year. We still have Blue tarps
in some areas on roof tops
1327. SLU
Also the weather patterns interchange for a few days or weeks at a time during a hurricane season and this can cause a system to behave totally contrary to the bigger picture.

For instance a high pressure system may build suddenly for a few days and if a cyclone gets blocked by it unexpectedly, it may come farther west than all of the other systems before.
1328. IKE
That's true SLU....need a strong high to set up in the western Atlantic for a couple of weeks. Maybe that will happen after this weeks cold front comes thru.
1329. IKE
One thing I have learned from this season. All of these forecasts of 16-18 storms...numerous hurricanes....3-5 major... forecasting a season is hard to do. I have less faith in what the experts predict.

Weather patterns are obvious 2-3 months into a season...until then, anythings possible. Compare 2006 to 2005!
1330. nash28
Morning everyone.
morning nash
1332. IKE
Morning nash.
1333. nash28
Morning Ike, Stormchaser.
Good Morningg Everyone:


Weather456s Tropical and Subtropical Weather Discussion for The North Atlantic Ocean.............Tropical Depression Seven..
Monday, September 11, 2006
6:14 AM AST


As of 5amAST, Tropical Depression Seven was located at 20.5N/55.1W, moving WNW near 7mph. The storm is packing winds of 35mph and a MCP of 1010mbars.

The depression improved somewhat during the past 12hrs, with some banding developing on the southern eastern quadrant of the system. TD7 continues to main deep convection over the center of circulation and could become TS Gordon, later today or on Tuesday.

The system is very small compared to Florence.

The wind shear from Florence has decrease significantly from 30knots to near 10-15knots this morning, meaning TD7, has a good chance of becoming a strong tropical storm, and dry air is no longer an inhibiting factor for this system.

Surface Observation/Conditions
Though dry air and shear are no longer a problem, sea surface temperatures will be for this system. Florence took some heat content from the ocean as it churned its across the Atlantic, and if TD7, was to follow this path, then there might be some implications. However the system still has a chance because the SSTs in some spots are around 80-81degrees.

Given the size of the system, the wind field remains confined to small area and so are the waves, which are around 10ft above normal.

Buoys and Ships
One buoy (to the east of TD7), measured a pressure of 1016mbars and a south wind of 15knots. The buoy also reported cloudy skies, with light continuous rain.

Another buoy (FQXJ), to the NE of TD7, measured a pressure of 1014.7mbars and a SE wind of 25knots.

The buoys relatively close to TD7 cloud canopy, so that suggest that 30 knot force winds only extends out to a small area.

The buoys also reveals relatively high pressures around the system.

Forecast
TD7, in my opinion, will follow the weakness in the high that Florence created, for at least 48-60hrs. If the high fails to rebuilds after 72hrs, then it's safe to say TD7 will move out to sea (maybe threatening Bermuda), like Florence did.

Given the SSTs, dry air, wind shear and upper air divergence, I would say TD7 reaches at least 50mph, sometime along its track.

Wetaher456
1335. IKE
Looks like that system that is coming off of Africa is what the GFS has forming a TS or hurricane...moves it to about 55W...turns it north. Notice the pattern?
1336. nash28
Yeah that seems to be the pattern, but if that High builds back in over TD7, we may have to watch it.
told u just like debby i think
1338. IKE
There's another cold front that's going to move off of the east coast of the US by Thursday. Should help turn TD7..Gordon...away from the US.
1339. IKE
Yup...another Debby.
African Wave:

A tropical wave along 14W is accompanied by a 1010mbar low and scattered moderate convection along the ITCZ.
1341. nash28
Well, we will see if TD7 follows the path or continues westward.
1342. Gatorx
Good morning everyone.
morning gatorx
Severe Tropical Storm ShanShan

1345. CFLSW
Posted By: Weather456 at 10:49 AM GMT on September 11, 2006.
African Wave:

A tropical wave along 14W is accompanied by a 1010mbar low and scattered moderate convection along the ITCZ.


Can that low develop into a tropical system?
And is that the Low the system NE of CV?
1346. CFLSW
Is it the system NW of CV
Hurricane Florence

1348. Gatorx
Does anyone think it is odd that Florence has not strengthened during the night?
1349. CFLSW
Colder air cooler water?
Could this be the cause?
Can that low develop into a tropical system?
And is that the Low the system NE of CV?


The low is still over Africa, but once it reaches water, there is a chance.

If you mean, the system NW of the Cape Verde Islands, thats a classic upper level low.
1351. CFLSW
Ok thats what I should have asked.
Is it possible for a classic ULL to become a tropical storm?
A quick update from Bermuda. Currently, we're experiencing tropical storm conditions, with some pretty heavy squalls. Parts of the island have lost power, but we've been lucky to date (knock on wood). Seems like we're going to avoid the worst, especially with Flo deciding to take a break overnight... Right now our main concern is keeping the cats separated...
1353. CFLSW
Dont laugh I was serious. I never said I knew anything about storms. Just been watching for years.
1354. Gatorx
dtrobert-

Glad your safe...you all have been in our thoughts...
Image of CATL:

93L - To the left near the Islands
Florence - huge mass of clouds in the left top corner
ULL - center top
ITCZ - bottom
African Low - Right along the coast of Africa

Posted By: CFLSW at 6:59 AM AST on September 11, 2006.
Ok thats what I should have asked.
Is it possible for a classic ULL to become a tropical storm?


Yeah, but the process is very lone, and they need the right conditions to do so.

a surface feature can form in association with ULL.
See you guys later.....
1358. Gatorx
Weather456-

the low rolling off Africa to me looks the most suspect...last night I think it's pressure was 1018 mb.
1359. Gatorx
Got to get the kids to school.Have a great day everyone.
1360. CFLSW
Thanks Weather456
First visibles coming in with TD 7...





1362. nash28
Good morning 23
1363. SLU
Posted By: IKE at 10:48 AM GMT on September 11, 2006.

Yup...another Debby.


Posted By: stormchaserDAZ at 10:45 AM GMT on September 11, 2006.

told u just like debby i think


Why is everyone just automatically assuming that the new wave will be like Debby???

Look at the big difference in the last 2 GFS model runs. The new run takes it much farther west than the pervious. No one knows what the next run will do.

Or the system might take forever to develop and make it all the way into the Western Caribbean where it WILL be a threat to the "sacred" US mainland :@.
1364. snowboy
Morning all - great news that Bermuda has been spared the worst. Funny that despite optimal conditions Forence never really got her act together. Regarding some earlier comments, I'd be a bit cautious and not start crowing yet that the US will be spared this storm season..
TD 7 looks really good this morning when should we have a TS what advisory
Some slight inprovemnet in banding features this morning winds now up to 35 mph.
Good morning nash28...just checking in for a few before leaveing to work.Hope you and everyone have a pleasant day.
1370. CFLSW
Posted By: SLU at 11:26 AM GMT on September 11, 2006.
Posted By: IKE at 10:48 AM GMT on September 11, 2006.

Or the system might take forever to develop and make it all the way into the Western Caribbean where it WILL be a threat to the "sacred" US mainland :@.

We not a sacred we ready. LoL AFTER 2004 I bought 2 generators
Emergency Lighting for the house ect.
LoL my wife said she never wanted to have to take a cold shower again and sweat are butts off while we sleeping.
1371. IKE
SLU said...Or the system might take forever to develop and make it all the way into the Western Caribbean where it WILL be a threat to the "sacred" US mainland :@.

Geez...kind words.
td 7 could be stronger then florence maybe???
so it is
nice blog
1376. Patrap
..Bermuda in good shape as the Storm seems to 2 heavily N & west loaded..ez on the Bermudans
1377. IKE
Bermuda has SSE winds at 48...gusting to 66. Pressure 29.24.
goodmorning everyone
Repeating the 800 am ast position, 32.3 n, 65.8 w. Movement toward, north near
12 mph. Maximum sustained winds, 80 mph. Minimum central pressure, 974 mb.
1380. Patrap
..THe storm peaked last night with the pressure now steady or filling slowly...dtrobert seems to be giving the story in real time...a dedicated Bermuda..much appreciated...
1381. Patrap
.hello Alley..GM...
1382. IKE
It moved .2 east in the last 3 hours.

It does look like Bermuda was east of the main convection.
1383. IKE
The pressure dropped 2 mb's from 5 am to 8am advisory...976 to 974 mb's.
1384. Patrap
..Bermuda dodges the Brunt,,with rainfall totals to be minimal for the event.Thats great news.
GFS wants us to have a pretty interesting next week... hmmm
Didnt someone say the season was over?
1386. Patrap
...whoever said that dont know squat ...climatology..or history..LOL
opps
1389. Patrap
..LINK..trouble sammy?
hello?
HEY PATRAP
1392. Patrap
..yes..Im here sammy..LOL
1393. IKE
Posted By: sammywammybamy at 6:57 AM CDT on September 11, 2006.

opps


Opp,Al.???? hehe..........
1394. Patrap
..TWC must have slashed Cantores Budget..he was broadcasting via..videophone..
Is it just me or has it seemed like Florence has taken FOREVER to do something? It seems like this impact on Bermuda was talked about like a month...
By the way, thank God she never got as strong as they thought before getting to Bermuda.
1396. IKE
Yeah really..."The Hurricane Authority" and no camaraman goes with Cantore? But if it was a storm hitting the US, the camaraman would be with him. Not sure I follow why?
Cantore was probably kicking and screaming on the floor to be able to go report on location in Bermuda this historical storm... they probably just sent him coach, with a camera cell phone and got him a room in a motel somewhere in Bermuda...
1398. Patrap
..flo was way too large in the circumference field to take advantage of the ssts & good outflow..now if she would have been 400 miles south,,.it would have had more time to gather her mo...now she'll..exit Bermuda later today..to become xtra-tropical..by late tommorow..
1399. IKE
Posted By: benirica at 7:10 AM CDT on September 11, 2006.

Cantore was probably kicking and screaming on the floor to be able to go report on location in Bermuda this historical storm... they probably just sent him coach, with a camera cell phone and got him a room in a motel somewhere in Bermuda...


That sounds about right.

I just can't watch TWC much anymore. They need a format change.
1400. Patrap
..hard to fly a satelitte truck to Bermuda..and the locals ..with limited truck resoures,..chose not to offer their equipment..which is normal.The stuff is very xpensive & not many of them in Bermuda..sorry Jim..come back 2 the mainland ...
1401. IKE
You have a point there...didn't think about that.
Has he ever been to Puerto Rico? I dont recall ever seeing him around when we have a hurricane...
Well I think once, I think it was Dean or something and it was just a tropical storm and it didnt even hit us, it just formed right off the coast and that was about it...
I guess he just likes the free trips.
Somebody said GFS calls for an interesting week. Details???????
1404. IKE
I wonder how long it will be before we have todays argument about TD7...a fish storm vs. no...it might go west???? Which it might, but the models and the NHC say otherwise.
1405. Patrap
..Peurto Rico..the Jewel of the Carribean....
Ike, and don't forget the debate on what a fish storm REALLY is
1407. IKE
Now if a storm threatens the Azores and Cantore goes there...they are "The Hurricane Authority".
the GFS has one storm comming off Africa, which with every run they have it going further west... it used to go north right off Africa, now it makes it to about 1000miles east of the Island... then they want something to form off the Carolinas and they have something else brewing right off Africa towards 144hrs.
But remember what the Doc said, "if only one model shows developtment, dont worry about it"... and the other models dont see three systems, the CMC and i think one other shows that first one off Africa only.
1409. IKE
Posted By: SWLAStormFanatic at 7:17 AM CDT on September 11, 2006.

Ike, and don't forget the debate on what a fish storm REALLY is


LOL...right..forgot about that one.
1410. Patrap
..strong trough to dig in CONUS come tommorow,and will send front into GOM Wed.I look for some possible development in BOCampeche on end of Boundary come Thurs or Friday ..but that is an opinion..not a forcast...
If a hurricane threatens anywhere, and Cantore's not there to see it...is it really a hurricane?
1412. IKE
Posted By: SWLAStormFanatic at 7:19 AM CDT on September 11, 2006.

If a hurricane threatens anywhere, and Cantore's not there to see it...is it really a hurricane?


It's a wonder he didn't go to Australia and cover the typhoons last winter.
He has been in a lot of hurricanes...maybe that's what happened to his hair.
1414. IKE
Bermuda...SSE winds @56, gusting to 72.

Pressure 29.21 and falling.
1415. IKE
He was going bald when Opal was hitting.

He was losing it when he first came on TWC.
Looks like the winds are comming up in Bermuda? Or have they been worse??
1417. caneman
Caneman wishes death to all tropical blobs.
1418. Patrap
Wheres all the morning crews here?..Do they all just rag about a storm ..and not be around for Bermudas impact?...I wonder what it was like here during Katrinas landfall?..
1419. IKE
Posted By: Patrap at 7:26 AM CDT on September 11, 2006.

Wheres all the morning crews here?..Do they all just rag about a storm ..and not be around for Bermudas impact?...I wonder what it was like here during Katrinas landfall?..


Good point...if you're going to follow a storm at least see it's impact when it's actually happening.

This place was rockin when Katrina hit.
1420. nash28
Well, as soon as we say goodbye to Florence, we say hello to TD7/Gordon.
1422. Patrap
..stopped blogging Sun the 28th and didnt get back in till Sept 16th..but was curious..I know it must have been wild watching it roll in on radar..I had my last look when power was lost 0515 the 29th.
1423. Patrap
.sees the Scotsman up & atum..GM..
Posted By: Patrap at 8:26 AM AST on September 11, 2006.

Wheres all the morning crews here?..Do they all just rag about a storm ..and not be around for Bermudas impact?...I wonder what it was like here during Katrinas landfall?..

Morning. I was watching Katrina make landfall...but I had the same question when we were getting slammed by Wilma. I wasn't a member here then. Just remember being on another site for Katrina.

1425. IKE
I remember seeing a radar as she was crossing SE LA..heading back in the water...then hitting SE Miss. I felt sorry for everyone...with a pressure that low...just knew the damage was severe.

1426. Patrap
..Wilma was bad lick for many over there.
1428. Patrap
..yes ..was Worst Id been in..I sometimes look @ the Local landfall radar loop ..and just shudder...
1429. IKE
Current gust at 72 is the highest I've seen.
1430. Patrap
..about the Highest now..they doing fine..dtroberts has a report from Bermuda..if ya scroll dowb
1431. IKE
Posted By: Patrap at 7:34 AM CDT on September 11, 2006.

..yes ..was Worst Id been in..I sometimes look @ the Local landfall radar loop ..and just shudder...


Katrina was a full-fledged beast. If I had to thumb a ride away from the area, I would have.

1432. Patrap
..Azores the way of the Atlantic this year,,via Bermuda
hey isn't td 7 going to slow for the thing to catch her?
1435. IKE
They have sustained SSE at 55...probably hurricane force gusts are happening now.
1436. Patrap
..please post a link..not the pages ..too much data..not enuf Bandwidtw..Please..Thank you...
Link them or shrink them please.
1438. IKE
Glad I don't have dialup!
1439. Patrap
..we now in the mud..pages loading..S_L_O_W_L_Y>...
1440. Patrap
..LOL..Rand..G morning...
1441. Patrap
..remeber tozzing webtv remote kyboard out the window..years ago...
1442. IKE
TD7 looks almost stationary..Florence might pull it north.
1443. CFLSW
Sorry I did not notice how heavy they where untill I downloaded one. When I saw That I had a bad feeling about it.
1444. IKE
Much better CFLSW. Thanks. And I'm not on dialup.
CFLSW...Maybe you can go back and modify/delete the post.
1446. CFLSW
I did
1447. Patrap
..is out to reflect on the events of 5 yrs ago this hour...and will c yall later today..Remember..Resolve...Respect..911.
1448. Melagoo
Weather enthusists should never be on a dial-up modem
Ike... I actually thought the llc was going NW while the convection is staying pretty much in place. Not good for development if thats the case.
mornin all, when did Burmuda's radar go down?
1451. Hatchet
Looks like Bermuda is fine so far ,hope they stay that way,glad they are the only intelligent life forms in Flos way
1452. IKE
I see that on a visible...the convection is staying behind.
Bermuda shouldn't have it that bad. The Eastern and NE eyewall is fairly well eroded.
GM All.....This morning's take on Florence and TD7 from one of the FSU people...

Colleagues,

FORECAST: Hurricane FLORENCE is now passing by just to the west of Bermuda
with Category one winds. Bremuda will experience Category 1 force winds.
FLORENCE now moving east of north and in the next few hours will be moving
NE about 11 mph into regions of higher shear and colder waters, hence, no
strengthening. FLORENCE is no threat to the US at all.

DISCUSSION: Today is the climatalogical peak of the hurricane season. This
season will, as discussed yesterday, be no more than average, even though
we are in a period of greater than average storms. Tropical Depression 7
is 900 SE of FLORENCE, but it is not strong enough and conditions are not
clear enough to tell if it will strengthen. In any event, it will not be
a threat to Florida or the US (maybe Bermuda again). The next day or two
will tell the story on this one. I will be watching this system, just in
case. For all practical purposes, FLORENCE will be of no more interest to
us after today. Florence will become an extratropical storm shortly and
move across the north Atlantic.
weathermanwannabe,
How do you know it won't be a threat the US? What about the Islands?
Raining fish is believed to be the result of water spout tornado(s) cathing fishs then being let go at different locations and altitudes
Mornin' guys - did any of y'all feel the earthquake off the coast of FL yesterday?
This forecast is not mine (from FSU); I post it for discussions purposes and comparison to Dr. Masters and NHC.....Right now TD 7 is just lingering East of the Lesser Antilles and any future movement (as to LA) will be dependent upon the "void" left by Florence and the preveiling steering currents...Your guess is as good as mine as to future development..
I had no earthquake moment here. Read about it...that's it.
1463. i12BNEi
Morning all
Nothing fealt here in Crystal Beach.I was out with the family and got a text message about a large earthquake in the GOM,Scared me a little being 3 blocks from the gulf and not knowing at the time as to what the magnitude was though.

(911...Never forgotten)
No earthquake signs in Pensacola, there must be a fault that run off Atlantic from Jacksonvill to SW/
11/1145 UTC 20.9N 56.3W T2.5/2.5 07L -- Atlantic Ocean
I guess that quake must of really shaken up Tampa Bay yesterday, what was that score 27-0,lol
They said there was no fault - just one of those "plate sliding over plate" things. So matter of fact the way they described. I have to say Gulf may have something - the little fishies were just celebrating not getting battered this year - woo hoooo. We are nearly there and no tragedies. Gives us time to reconcile to the past several years tragedies, weather and terrorism related.
1469. Zaphod
TD7 doesn't seem be going much anywhere yet, but it looks barely NW overnight to me. I can't see any major reason to disagree with the models, though it does seem like a nudge either N or S would settle it into two different paths, if I interpret the currents correctly (not a given!).

Is there a decent chance it will simple dissipate more or less where it is? The other convection to the S and W seems to blow up and then blow away every day or so......

Is there any chance that the little swirl over the Yucatan could develop convection?

Zap
Good morning and my condlonces to anyone who lost loved ones on 9/11, THEY WILL NEVER BE FORGOTTEN.
Zaphod, I think TD7 could very well dissipate, the GFDL and SHIPS are out to lunch on their intensity forecasts. This will never be a hurricane.
1472. Gatorx
new blog is up