WunderBlog Archive » Category 6™

Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.

Beneficial Barry

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 4:43 PM GMT on June 03, 2007

Tropical Storm Barry is no more. Its remnants, now an extratropical storm with top winds of 40 mph over the ocean, are over the Mid-Atlantic coast, moving north-northeastward at 10 mph. Barry's remnants are expected to bring 1-3 inches of rain along the Mid-Atlantic and New England states through Monday. Was Barry really a tropical storm? I think it should have been named "Subtropical Storm Barry", and I hope NHC looks at the storm carefully to consider redesignating it after the season is over. Read Margie Kieper's View From the Surface blog for more on this.

On Saturday, Barry brought up to seven inches of rain to drought-parched Florida, including an official 6.99" to West Palm Beach, 4.07" to Jacksonville, 5.91" to Savannah Georgia, and 3.17" to Tampa. Barry's rains probably provided tens of millions of dollars of benefit--quite the opposite of what we're used to saying about tropical storms! The fire area near the Florida-Georgia border got between 1-5 inches of rain from Barry, which has dampened but not extinguished the fires. Barry's rains also helped a bit with the Florida drought. However, Barry's rains were only 1-2 inches over central Florida, and they need about 30 inches of rain to pull them out of drought conditions. The summer rainy season typically begins in June, so there is hope that substantial rains are on the way. There doesn't appear to be much rain coming this week, though.


Figure 1. Total rainfall from Barry for northern Florida, estimated by radar.

June outlook
My outlook for the first two weeks of June was posted Friday. I don't see anything on the horizon for the remainder of this week--wind shear is expected to be high most of this week over the favored breeding grounds for June storms--the Gulf of Mexico and Western Caribbean. Wind shear may drop enough over the Western Caribbean early next week to allow tropical storm formation, but that is too far in the future to guess at the probability of such an event.

This will be my last "live" blog until Monday June 11; it's time to grab a week of summer vacation while the tropics are quiet. I'm off to see Niagara Falls and the "Grand Canyon of the East", New York's awesome Letchworth State Park. I hope to get some good waterfall rainbow shots to add to my wunderphotos. I've written two canned blogs that will be posted Tuesday and Friday while I'm gone:

Tuesday--We've all used NHC's Tropical Weather Outlook, which most often this time of year says, "Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours." How accurate are these outlooks? I'll present some verification statistics from 2005 and 2006.

Friday--The NHC made it's best track forecasts ever last year. How good are their forecasts now? Which of the various computer models performed the best last year? I'll have a breakdown of the numbers.

Arrogance
Our Climate Change blog by Dr. Ricky Rood has an interesting commentary on what the chief of NASA said last week in an NPR interview when asked, "Do you have any doubt that climate change is a problem that mankind has to wrestle with?"

Strongest tropical cyclone ever seen in Arabian Sea
Follow The View From the Surface blog this week to track Tropical Cyclone Gonu. Gonu is the strongest storm ever seen in the Arabian Sea, and could cause big trouble for the Persian Gulf oil rigs and tankers.

Jeff Masters

Fire

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Hi all....been lurking...it's been a while.
Looks like Gonu is a beaut
Looking forward to, as always....some intersting conversation.
....I agree. Looks like some impressive waves for this time of year. Next week could prove interesting!
Well...I'm out till later. Just wanted to say hi to all!
G
the gfsx is shoowing somthing so. of fla in 10 days . you think its the wave off africa that still seems to be holding on at 3 am here
503. FLBoy
Is the GFS back on that again? Haven't checked since Sunday morning.
Gonu continues to gain in strength...


Current Intensity Analysis

UW - CIMSS ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE ADT-Version 7.2.1 Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm ----- Current Analysis ----- Date : 04 JUN 2007 Time : 083000 UTC Lat : 19:32:44 N Lon : 64:33:19 E CI# /Pressure/ Vmax 7.1 / 894.2mb/143.0kt 6hr-Avg T# 3hr-Avg T# Adj T# Raw T# 7.0 7.1 7.3 7.5 Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.0mb Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 16 km Center Temp : +14.8C Cloud Region Temp : -79.3C Scene Type : EYE Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION Ocean Basin : INDIAN Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 1.7T/6hr Weakening Flag : OFF Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
What is the strongest cyclone in the North Indian Ocean?
Dvorak comparison of Gonu to Wilma and Monica;


Gonu:
Dvorak Gonu


Wilma:
Dvorak Wilma


Monica:
Dvorak Monica



Three major tropical storm blow-ups in three consecutive years in three different basins...hmmm

Hmmm what?..it happens every year.No mystery there.Period.
MAN its way early for a test ..its only 6:32 CST..LOL
Gonu is the strongest ever storm recorded in the North Indian.

What we are seeing is new territory, a Cat 5 cyclone in the Arabian Sea.

Gonu is the first tropical superstorm of 2007, in a place nobody expected.

Makes 'blob' watching pale into insignificance really...
Barry Remnant Floater 2 Link
Blob isnt a met term Its a WU term.I Never use it. .
Awaiting new MIMIC on Gonu..sure to be impressive
Yeah the MIMIC should be worth the wait.

Hi Pat, I was referring to before that tropical storms going through very rapid intensification into cat 4+ systems seem to be occuring more regularly in recent years than in the past.

Just an observation that I've made, people can make their own conclusions as to what it means overall.

All hell is going to break loose in a couple days in what may be the largest and worst severe weather outbreak so far this year; the day 3 outlook below will be a high risk tomorrow (a 45% significant severe/moderate risk is the most you will ever seen for a day 3 outlook):



DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0240 AM CDT MON JUN 04 2007

VALID 061200Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS ERN SD...ERN NEB...SWRN MN...AND WRN IA...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE CENTRAL AND NRN PLAINS AND INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MID OH VALLEY ESEWD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS...

...SYNOPSIS...
POTENT MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO EMERGE FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS THIS PERIOD...ACCOMPANIED BY AN UNSEASONABLY-STRONG SWLY JET STREAK. AS THIS LOW MOVES INTO THE PLAINS...STRONG CYCLOGENESIS IS FORECAST OVER THE NRN PLAINS -- YIELDING A 975 MB LOW OVER ERN ND LATE IN THE PERIOD. SSOCIATED/TRAILING COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO SWEEP EWD/SEWD ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH THIS FRONT -- AND A LEADING DRYLINE -- LIKELY TO SERVE AS FOCI FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS.

...CENTRAL AND NRN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY... MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT THE POTENTIAL FOR A WIDESPREAD/SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK ACROSS PARTS OF THE PLAINS STATES THIS PERIOD.

VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER /UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S DEWPOINTS/ IS FORECAST TO STREAM NWD ACROSS THE PLAINS THIS PERIOD...BENEATH ELEVATED MIXED-LAYER AND ASSOCIATED CAPPING INVERSION. BY AFTERNOON...MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER COMBINED WITH STRONG HEATING AND STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT SHOULD YIELD EXTREME INSTABILITY ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NRN PLAINS. CAPPING WILL LIKELY HINDER CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN MOST AREAS UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON...WHEN SCATTERED STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE DAKOTAS AND SWD INTO NEB. CAP MAY BE BREACHED LOCALLY ALLOWING ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG DRYLINE AS FAR S AS SRN KS/OK/WRN N TX.

WITH 60 TO 80 KT SWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW FORECAST TO SPREAD NEWD ACROSS THE PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING ABOVE STRONG/INTENSIFYING SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW...SHEAR SHOULD BE EXCEPTIONALLY-FAVORABLE -- GIVEN DEGREE OF AVAILABLE INSTABILITY -- FOR LARGE/INTENSE SUPERCELL STORMS. ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL AND WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES ARE ALSO ANTICIPATED -- WITH A FEW SIGNIFICANT/LONG-TRACK TORNADOES POSSIBLE. GREATEST THREAT APPEARS TO EXIST ATTM ACROSS THE ERN HALVES OF SD AND NEB AND INTO SWRN MN/WRN IA.

OVERNIGHT...SEVERE THREAT IS FORECAST TO SPREAD EWD INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY REGION...AS COLD FRONT SURGES EWD AND LOW-LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES TO 70 KT INTO THIS AREA. SEVERE THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT...PERHAPS EXTENDING AS FAR E AS THE WRN UPPER GREAT LAKES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

...MID OH VALLEY SEWD INTO THE CAROLINAS...
SCATTERED STORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDING ESEWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AND INTO THE CAROLINAS...AS AIRMASS DESTABILIZES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND WEAK SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVES EWD THROUGH LARGER-SCALE RIDGE. WITH MID-LEVEL WNWLY FLOW NEAR 40 KT...POTENTIAL FOR A FEW ORGANIZED STORMS/STORM CLUSTERS WILL EXIST...ACCOMPANIED BY A THREAT FOR LOCALLY-DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR HAIL THROUGH EARLY EVENING.


And that is not the end:



DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0401 AM CDT MON JUN 04 2007

VALID 071200Z - 121200Z

...DISCUSSION...
LARGE UPPER TROUGH SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING NEWD ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY/UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION AND INTO ERN CANADA DAY 4 /THU. JUNE 7/. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING EWD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST SHOULD SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT...AND RELATIVELY WIDESPREAD SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY EXIST AS VERY STRONG DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD SPREADS EWD IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE UPPER TROUGH.

AS THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS INTO CANADA DAY 4...A BROAD BELT OF ENHANCED SWLY FLOW WILL BECOME FIXED FROM SW-NE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS FOR DAYS 5/6 AND POSSIBLY DAY 7 /FRI. JUNE 8 TO SUN. JUNE 10/. SEVERAL DISTURBANCES ARE FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THIS FLOW FIELD...ABOVE LINGERING W-E FRONT. WHILE FLOW SHOULD WEAKEN SLOWLY WITH TIME...DIURNAL STORM DEVELOPMENT INVOF FRONT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SEVERE THREAT THROUGH DAY 5-6. HOWEVER...WITH OVERALL THREAT LIKELY TO DECREASE SLOWLY THROUGH THE PERIOD...WILL NOT INCLUDE AN OUTLOOK AREA BEYOND DAY 6 THIS FORECAST.
Alvin trying to make a come back?? Link
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 041058
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
400 AM PDT MON JUN 4 2007

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...THE REMNANT OF ALVIN...IS LOCATED ABOUT 1150 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND IS MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AND SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.


ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER COBB/PASCH

The African storm has a couple 40kt vectors in it...Y'all'd better prepare to evacuate.
Gonu is amazing on satellite right now.
Arrogance
Our Climate Change blog by Dr. Ricky Rood has an interesting commentary on what the chief of NASA said last week in an NPR interview when asked, "Do you have any doubt that climate change is a problem that mankind has to wrestle with?"


Just who are you calling arrogant, Doctor Masters? Dr. Rood? NASA? NPR? Your blog has become more and more engulfed in your puny political divides.
Can you send a sat link for Gonu?
anyone just see jnew the blob that just merged off the yucatan . looks like it going into the gulf . any thoughts on this one is the gulf set up for development now thanks
NRL now says that Gonu is a Cat 5...

/TC/tc07/IO/02A.GONU/ir/geo/1km
20070604.1300.meteo7.x.ir1km.02AGONU.140kts-898mb-199N-641E.100pc.jpg

Here is a HUMONGOUS (4096x4096; 1.5 MB) high-resolution image of Gonu:

It says that Gonu is at 150 on the tropical page, but it looks more like a 160-165 mph Category 5.
That is what NRL has, and that is really just a "sneak preview" of the upcoming advisory (the same happens with NHC advisories - NRL often updates an hour or more before the JTWC or NHC do).
stormybil not a ch wind shear is too high right now in the gulf
http://www.wistv.com/Global/story.asp?S=6606323

Coast Guard rescues sailboat crews off SC, NC

"CHARLESTON, S.C. (AP) - Five men on a 44-foot sailboat have been rescued when their vessel became disabled in 30-foot seas and 40 mile-an-hour winds off the South Carolina coast.

The Coast Guard says the Kintaro was about 275 miles east of Charleston Sunday. The crew was taken aboard the rescue vessel Puget and will be taken to Bermuda.

In a second rescue, three people on board the 34-foot sailboat Lotus were rescued 160 miles southeast of Cape Fear, North Carolina.

Fifty-year-old Edward House of South Carolina was among those airlifted to the Wilmington, North Carolina, airport.

Coast Guard spokesman Petty Officer Kip Wadlow says all the boaters were in good condition."

I used to be in the Navy, was stationed onboard a guided missile cruiser, certainly much larger than a 44ft sailboat. We avoided weather like ths like the plague! What is with these idiot's who insist on putting themselves in harms way!!!

Just goes to show you, even remnants of a tropical storm are nothing to mess with at sea!
Posted By: Tazmanian at 1:35 PM GMT on June 04, 2007.

stormybil not a ch wind shear is too high right now in the gulf


Hmmm.... I can't quite remember... But what exactly was it that we said about Barry..? and the whole... Development thing..?
When is the next Nhc advisory for gonu
Posted By: Hellsniper223 at 1:51 PM GMT on June 04, 2007.
Posted By: Tazmanian at 1:35 PM GMT on June 04, 2007.

stormybil not a ch wind shear is too high right now in the gulf


Hmmm.... I can't quite remember... But what exactly was it that we said about Barry..? and the whole... Development thing..?


I do believe you are right H223, LOL.

Can someone post the link for the long range 10 day GFSX?? Pleeze?
After seeing what Barry did to the tides directly south of where it made landfall albeit, it was an astroligic high tide, I will definately evacuate for anything stronger than a cat 1. There was a significant rise in the tides. I have lived in Tampa/Bradenton all my live and been through many close calls and true tropical storms (which this was not) But I can tell you this should be a wake up call for all the complacent ones who plan on sitting it out if you live in an evacuation zone..
her you go Link ill be watching the one off the yucatan it is close to home and anything can pop up at anytime its looking good at this hour thought it might be somthing
Gonu, headed for Oman? Muscat, capital city of 600,00 plus? Could it trek into the Persian Gulf and bring rain to Iraq?

...odd to see the report that we watching three Atlantic waves and one in the Caribbean. Looks like we could be busier, and earlier than expected.
When is the next Nhc advisory for gonu

The NHC doesn't issue advisories for the Indian Ocean; that is the JTWC; the next advisory will be in about an hour; however, NRL already has the intensity up (click on the image or one of the buttons; the image will have the intensity listed above it).
if you want to check out the yucatan blob on this link Link
Gonu, headed for Oman

Yeah, and Oman produces a lot of oil... 700,000 barrels per day to be exact... better stock up now (I don't know how much of an impact Gonu could have though but it reminds me of Katrina or Rita)...
Mstl...that's all we need another "gas booster!? Things get wrecked over there, prolly go to $10 gallon! sheeeesh...
Dear MichealStl,Jp,StormW,Drakeon,patrap and all the other weather experts.

I Just wanted to let you know that i learned alot from you guys.And i hope you stay posting on this blog all hurricane season.Great advice.....
MichealStl,Isn't Oman a desert region it could get flash flooding,plus people don't usaully get cyclone's there....This could be a katrina..The have no experiance with cyclone's...Many will die!!!!!!!:(
Good Point with the gasoline hike because of this storm. The Lumburgh Survey will probably agree with this by day's end.
When I said that it reminded me of Katrina or Rita, I was referring more to how it was headed towards an oil producing region (and in this case, a really big oil producer - it will almost certainly affect other countries as well - especially if it heads up the Persian Gulf, if that is possible).
Posted By: sammywammybamy at 2:17 PM GMT on June 04, 2007.

Dear MichealStl,Jp,StormW,Drakeon,patrap and all the other weather experts.

I Just wanted to let you know that i learned alot from you guys.And i hope you stay posting on this blog all hurricane season.Great advice.....


lol weather experts...
I don't remember the horn of Africa ever this threatened from decades past. Of course we aren't as familiar with the region but I wonder what have been the worst (intensity/damage) storms over the years to collide with the East African coast.
---===** Just another way for Hugo Chavez to get richer and richer... **===---
Posted By: MisterPerfect at 1:19 PM GMT on June 04, 2007.

Just who are you calling arrogant, Doctor Masters? Dr. Rood? NASA? NPR? Your blog has become more and more engulfed in your puny political divides.


Didn't you read the link in the post?

Your blood sugar is low. Have a Waffle. With plenty of syrup.
Well:

Unusual landfalls
Arabian Peninsula
1983 - Tropical Storm Aurora struck Oman.
May, 1984 - Tropical Storm 01-A transited the Gulf of Aden and made landfall in northwest Somalia, the first tropical cyclone on record to do so.
October, 1992 - Tropical Storm 06-A struck Oman.
June, 1996 - Tropical Storm 02-A struck Oman.

Only tropical storms....

Also, here is some news from Oman on Gonu.
The GFS does't seem to be showing any major development over the next week or so... maybe a few blobs to watch
Posted By: MisterPerfect at 10:26 AM EDT on June 04, 2007.

---===** Just another way for Hugo Chavez to get richer and richer... **===---


Hugo Chavez is already to rich someone needs to take him out of power....
i mean't doesn't edit post. Gonu seems tobe developing nicely at 894 mb.
how often is the gfsx updated . will it see the new blob off the yucatan yet
When is the landfall expected for "Gonu"? And at what intensity?

I hope the people in Oman take the warnings there very seriously, or they will be suffering devastating results like everyone did along the Gulf Coast after Katrina.

I'm in Pensacola, and 2-1/2 years after Ivan, most of us are back to normal (whatever normal is). Some will never be normal again.

I pray for those in Gonu's path!
If Gonu does get into the Persian Gulf, it will have some insanely hot water... well over 90 degrees, though such a thing can be compared to a hurricane making it up the Gulf of California.



(also, if you are wondering why the pressure is only 990 mb on this map, it is because it is a global model and they don't the resolution, unlike the GFDL and other hurricane models)
By Sunil K. Vaidya, Bureau Chief

The coastal area in the east of Oman will have to bear the triple fury of wind, wave and rain as Gonu strikes Oman anytime after Wednesday night. As we speak the category for Gonu has been upgraded to 5.5 from 4.5, he warned.


...they have a CAT 5.5? Whoa! What kind of scale do they use???
...I see what you mean Mstl; plus, those hot waters are in the NW track of this storm. It looks like they have some experience with TS's; but, not a MAJOR! Looks like they may be in for it!
T-storms training over me early today..Link
yucatan blob looking better this hour again
GONU..false color..IR Link
Stormy, you are looking a few thunderstorms along a trough. Look to the NE and you see several of these small complexes. I would not ever clasify it as a "blob". It has only been there for a couple of hours. If it is still there in 24 hours and has expanded then it is worth watching.
Gonu's presentation is totally mind-blowing now. Looks a lot like Monica.
Here is the latest forecast for Gonu - into the Gulf...

Satellite Animations

Storm-Centered Visible/Infrared (Meteosat 7; CIMSS) Link
Man, GONU's going to kick up a lot of sand! Hold on to your turbans!
The best news about GONU is that it is a small diameter Storm.Powerful though.

Link
Aye! GONU is a fast buzz-saw Cyclone. Pretty little eye...
WWIO20 KNES 041450
SATELLITE WEATHER BULLETIN
NORTH INDIAN OCEAN MET-7 IRNIGHT
.
JUNE 04 2007 1430Z
.
20.1N 63.8E T7.0/7.0/D2.5/24HRS GONU(02A)
.
PAST POSITION... 18.9N 65.2E 04/0230Z VIS/IRDAY
17.9N 66.4E 03/1430Z IRNIGHT
SSMI POSITION 20.0N 63.6E 04/1337Z 85GHZ

REMARKS...OW PINPOINT EYE SURROUNDED BY CMG IN RAPIDLY DEVELOPED
SYSTEM. MET IS 6.5 BUT DT AND PT AGREE TO AT LEAST 7.0 BUT
WILL FIX INTENSITY AT 7.0 AT THIS FIX.
.
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM.
.
THE NEXT BULLETIN WILL BE ISSUED BY 04/2200Z.


A pinpoint eye? LOL
Storm-Centered Enhanced Infrared (Meteosat 7; CIMSS) Link
Gonu, with that track, the NE coast should get pounded by storm surge. Looks like a nice sized windfield area, too.
PINPOINT EYE..Taz will be totally pleased...
MAn that CDO shrinks and GONU is really impressive..!Link
After it hits oman(muscat) it will hit Iran?I expect a katrina like senerio to unfold in oman
572. 4Gaia
I wonder if the high salt content in those waters would affect Gonu?
Well take a look at that
I made a castle in the sand
Saying this is where it's at you know
Couldn't understand now
If I realized that the chances were slim
How come I'm so surprised when the tide rolled in...

Artist: Dire Straits
Title: Solid Rock
Gonu is simply...amazing
Gonu is a hurricane masterpiece! I just feel sorry for the lives that will be lost to this storm.

Oman....beware!

P.S. Go out and fill up your gas tanks and cans today....the prices are going to go up!
Storm-Centered Water Vapor (Meteosat 7; CIMSS)Link
looks like Muscat will at least get its June quota of rainfall that being 6 micro meters of rain. Supposed to 95-100 F with showers and thundershowers on Thursday with winds gusting to 100 mph.
wunderground OMAN sites..Link
Most storms weaken as they approach land in the Arabian due to the vast resivour of dry air that they drive into.

What's bad about this storm...

These nearly perfectly structured cyclones seem to create thier own niche in the atmosphere and become less affected by external forcings.

What a storm!!!!!!
Hope it does not take lives.
But what a beauty.


Has Oman ever experienced a catagory 3 hurricane before???
I wonder what effect GONU will have on oil prices, should it shift channels and waterways in the Straits (should it make it that far). And does anyone know which country the sheik was building that new "island city" on man made fingers shaped like a big palm tree. If that's Oman, he can kiss that good bye. That may be Bahrain not Oman. Anyone?
10 minute winds indicate a CAT 4 with winds of 115 knots and 930 hPa.
Sattilite signature looks just like Cimaron from last year to me.
10 minute winds???
The city of Sur ,in Oman is the wunderground site closet to the landfall predict point..Link
Out of all the storms last year (except for maybe Monica), the highest 10 minute wind I can remember was 105 knots. That was the max for all storms: Cimaron, Ioke, and every other cat 5 last year!
588. 4Gaia
Nothing on land to act as a wind break either,
Geography is not in their favor! This will be the sandstorm of the century.
Oman..with Sur on the MAp near the point of the coast..6
590. 4Gaia
Clearwater, that is Dubai.
IMD shows 10 minute winds of 115 knots and a Central Pressure of 930 hPa.

1 minute winds from the JTWC shows a CAT 5 with winds of 140kts.
Yes, Dubai, thanks.
I believe the U.A.E built that palm tree island.

It'll be interesting to see whether or not it'll stand up to Gonu.
Notice the Sur, Oman's elevation is only 46 ft. (14m) Sur is the closest to the predicted landfall. I'm afraid most of that city will lie in ruins.

Here in Pensacola, Ivan produced 50 ft. surge/waves that wiped out the I10 bridge over the bay.
Oh, it's Dubai?

Oh well.
I posted a high-res image of Gonu this morning on several blogs, but I did not post it on this blog yet. Here's the image. Click to make larger.

Free Image Hosting at www.ImageShack.us
I dont believe that my friend,Its a small storm in size..Oman will be their come Weds...Its mostly this..except for the Coastal areas NW of the impact point...

With the wind it's producing alot of Dust is going to get picked up and will go into the system.
599. 4Gaia
Sullivan, I think Dubai is in the UAE.(?)
It's looking like it's just going to brush the coast of Oman. Might not lose as much strength as it passes.

Could the recurve (if any) put this monster into Iran? Once again, no high terrain to slow it down...
Sur, Oman..Link
602. FLBoy
Just inland a bit from Sur to Musqat is a small mountain range. Biggest industry around Sur is shipbuilding and agriculture as well as tourism.
This is going to disrupt the shipping through the Straits of Hormuz. Hope that doesn't disrupt the flow of oil for too long!
DOnt worry FlaBoy..the Spice must flow..LoL
605. FLBoy
Canhead! LOL!
Were getting pounded here.Training occuring..Link
Zoomed...Nola..radar Link
Bathymetry in the Arabian sea won't allow for the same kind of storm surge experienced in the GOM.
Thanks for the "Canhead" laugh. I needed that for a Monday morning!
Extremely beautiful Tropical Cyclone.

Sullivan,
I'm glad to hear that about the storm surge. Could the storm continue a good strength and head into Iran?
Man ..Im getting 4 plus an hour rates now..street flooding occuring too
Link The resort island in UAE
Another view of VSCS Gonu.

d
615. FLBoy
That looks like several hours of heavy rain Patrap.
So far this year as far as I can find, the US has only imported 65K barrels of crude in January from Oman. None in February or March, but we did import considerably more from them in '06. So, I'm guessing it's not likely to spike prices, unless it's from hype.

Compare these January barrel import totals to that of:

Oman - 65,000
Saudia Arabia - 48,439,000
Venezuela - 37,050,000
Canada - 76,568,000
(US production est: 180,000,000)

Total imports for January '07 - 422,325,000
US consumes about 600,000,000 barrels per month!


...staggering statistics!

Link
Bad setup here..
Gonu is a very impressive hurricane and looks like that it developed as quickly as Katrina and Wilma. Are the SST over the Arabian Sea well into the 80's? Any predictions on how high the gas prices can go? ~Gulp~!
In the Arabian Sea the SST's are in the 85-90F +
moonlight, interesting stats.

You're definatly correct about the staggering quanity of imported oil flowing into this country
Here is a SST map:



The purple indicates SSTs up to 88 degrees, white is up to 90 degrees and the greenish color is off the charts.
fldoughboy,

Our locals here are saying $4 easy and as much as $5 if a major storm comes into the GOM. ~Gulp, indeed!~

This wont affect crude production or refining ..its not hitting an area with that ..its further inland ..not anywhere near the impact zone..predicted.
Thanks for the map, I guess that corresponds to a slight weakening trend once it gets to slightly cooler waters. It's predicted to hit as a Cat 3 from the map I read. It must be peaked out by now.
Then the next storm it'll be $6/gallon and the next $7.

The oil co's are praying for hurricanes, it gives them an excuse to squeeze our pockets further.

Best push your Legislators for more refining capacity in the USA.
Dry air will be affecting Gonu.
IMD still has it intensifying. The JTWC keeps it at 140kts and then they forecast it to weaken to 125kts
If the gas prices get that much higher it's time to ration the gas like the 1970's.
Patrap, or better yet, a vast increase in fuel economy for new cars...on the order of 40 miles per gallon.
nno it wouldn't be from slighlty cooler waters, dry air and other conmditions is what will weaken it fldoughboy.


Even then cooler waters there are upper 80's that can easily support a category 4 or 5 tropical cyclone, and the waters its over now are well into the 90's which under mmaximum perfect conditions can support a hurricane 0f 200 mph sustained winds or greater.

Oil Consumption in North America

Currently, the United States consumes 19.6 million barrels per day, of oil, which is more than 25% of the world's total.. As a result, the U.S produces one fourth of the world's carbon emissions. Despite predictions that the U.S. will exhaust it's supply of oil in as little as forty years, the demand is on the increase, and is predicted to continue increasing, because of the ever increasing population. Increase in resource consumption is caused by three factors: population growth, new uses found for a resource, and increase in demand for a resource to increase living standards. The rate of consumption for oil is increasing at a rate of about 2% yearly.

U.S. Oil Production

The United States produced enough oil to supply it's own demand until 1970, (Youngquist paragraph 6). In that year the U.S. had to start importing oil to meet the demand. The oil production for 2000 is expected to average 5.8 million barrels per day of crude oil. The production for 1999 was 5.9 million barrels per day. After the oil price collapse of 1985/1986, U.S. oil production declined dramatically. Oil production in 2000 is down by 24% from 1985. However, according to the Energy Information Administration (EIA), oil production is expected to increase by 70,000 barrels per day, or 1.1% in 2001. There is little to no chance of discovering any significant new onshore oil fields in the U.S. There is a good possibility of discovering major deposits of oil offshore, but offshore drilling has been banned in many areas. There are several good prospects far offshore that are open to exploration, but these are usually in very deep waters, and are extremely expensive to drill. The U.S. produces 12% of the world's oil, and and this production is concentrated onshore, and offshore along the Texas Louisiana Gulf Coast, extending inland through west Texas, Oklahoma, and eastern Kansas. There are also significant oil fields in Alaska along the central North Slope.

---Gonu probably won't hike prices, but the Chinese economy will!
635. FLBoy
Pat is right. The oil is shipped out of the Gulf through the Straits of Hormuz. All that will happen is a slight delay in shipping. Shouldn't be any major disruption in oil shipments.
anything new with that african wave...any chance to develop?

Waters aren't warm enough, little far south, and its just not that time of the year yet.
637. FLBoy
Further research shows that Oman's oil export terminal is near Muskat. Hope they built that terminal strong enough. A hit there will dent Oman's output.
Another "Sand Castle" in Panama City Beach, FL
If this goes into the gulf of Oman you could get a 2 to 5 day delay.This will sure have an impact on oil and gas prices.
And everyone at Cheers says together....."STORM". How are you today?
This weekend I had a good discussion with a buddy that graduated in environmental science from LSU. He worked for the EPA for a few years and now he works for the new LNG plant they are building on Calcasieu Lake.
He said the main reason for our gas prices is the quality of crude we are currently buying from over seas. He said our refineries were designed and built to handle a specific quality crude. He also said China is buying all the good stuff for manufacturing. He said you need good crude to make other petroleum based products, and China makes them all right now.
Patrap, good luck with this set-up. I hope the pumps are working today.
It is funny how the forecast for Muscat, Oman has a 20 percent chance of rain when the storm is making landfall mid week.
Watching MSNBc stock mkt tv said crude was up two percent today because of the storm over there. Everyone needs to cut bk alittle soon.
Morning All...Hey Patrap!

I'm just lurking on the board. I'm hoping you guys will give me some good info should anything brew in the Gulf. I'm on the evacuation team for New Orleans again this year....so when a storm threatens, your info lets me know when to pack!
650. Inyo
The oil stuff is scary.. its ridiculous that we havent put more research into other energy sources.
I doubt GONU will damage inland crude oil wells and refineries but it could damage the ports which would slow the shipping...I expect the storm will have an impact on gasoline prices worldwide but nothing major that warrants waking up Jimmy Carter from his mid day nap.
Posted By: WPBHurricane05 at 4:16 PM GMT on June 04, 2007.

anything new with that african wave...any chance to develop?

Waters aren't warm enough, little far south, and its just not that time of the year yet.


I hate to be nitpicky... But, time of year has absolutely nothing to do with systems forming. It all has to do with the current weather setup. And the water in that area is around 27C.

Though I agree with you in that I don't think anything will come of this, it is still very possible... Seeing as though it is at around 5N and the water temps are warm... And the shear is lax... and the air is moist...
oh believe me they can find alternative fuels... they already have .. the gas comapanies probabaly do business with the car companies ..... its ppl will still have to buy gas..it makes sense ... i mean ..there are solar panels.... and vegetable oil.....
Ethanol is the way to go. If we can feed the world surely we can make our cars go
Why is everyone saying that the water temps r to cold for that african wave to form....please correct me if i am wrong but i see temps in the mid80s
The scary thing about Ethanol is you can't see a flame with it combusts. Its practically odorless too. Can you imagine the common idiot's face burning off and every other idiot standing from a distance saying: "what's that guy's problem?"
Posted By: HurricaneGeek at 5:06 PM GMT on June 04, 2007.

Why is everyone saying that the water temps r to cold for that african wave to form....please correct me if i am wrong but i see temps in the mid80s


They're right about 80-81 degrees.
658. FLBoy
Crude prices are up $1.05 at midday. That's a normal day so far.
LOL Mr. Perfect, I/m sure there would be safe guards in place.
Here is my Question why are we so dependant on the foreign oil anyway
wow gonu is looking wonderfully impressive.
I say skip the Ethanol phase... It's a waste of time if you look at the power output and cleanliness of Hyrdrogen. I could stand the streats being slightly more humid if it ment that the atmosphere was a clean. Ethanol is clean... But Nowhere near as clean as Hydrogen... (The most abundant element in the known universe.)
664. FLBoy

Posted By: ClearH2OFla at 5:16 PM GMT on June 04, 2007.
Here is my Question why are we so dependant on the foreign oil anyway


Currently, the US consumes 20 million barrels per day of oil; but, only produces about 6 million barrels per day.

The United States produced enough oil to supply it's own demand until 1970. In that year the U.S. had to start importing oil to meet the demand.
Hi folks
this is off topic re: weather, but on the current sub-thread so:
Canada (waving my flag) is *the* largest foreign supplier of oil and petroleum to the USA (some 1.78M bl/day)...Saudia Arabia comes 4th. not sure this is relavant, but wanted to say it anyway! :)
alternative power solutions, improved fuel eff autos (be that diesel, hybrid, or electric ala GM's new Volt) and de-centralized power production from rooftop solar, wind or geothermal generators is what will be required before 2050. That and significantly better insulation practices! (I learned that many homes in the south have no insulation in the walls! No wonder the AC units are HUGE and suck so much electricity! all the outside heat comes right through the walls!)

The real problem though, IMHO, is that all this energy crunch stuff seems a long way off (baring local effects such as storms)...but it's not when you consider the *age* of existing oil refineries (increasing downtimes from shear wear), the increased use of plastics/oil and gas worldwide, and, THIS IS IMPORTANT, the aging, out-moded, and already vastly overburdened North American electrical grid!
Oil is only the tip of our energy supply concerns (in both Canada and the US) but is the one the Average Joe sees more due to their weekly fillups and heavy Media focus. Few pay much lasting attention to their bi-monthly electric bill or electricity system until the lights go out. the North-east blackout of 2003 was only a taste. Scientific American had an article on this in it's May issue...excellent reading
So, Patrap, I would push more for improving the electricity generation and DISTRIBUTION systems, and let the automotive industry cope with the next generation of propulsion. I think it will look more like the GM Volt...assuming a better battery is found.

Sorry for the length of post. I know..I babble.
What about that blob in the yucatan channel?
African wave still around.
It will not develop. It is to far south, about to run into high shear and South America.
What about that blob in the yucatan channel?

Most likely just a t-storm.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT MON JUN 4 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB
670. FLBoy

Subject: A Super Cyclonic Storm GONU over East
Central and adjoining westcentral and north
Arabian Sea


TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES, NEW DELHI


TROPICAL STORM GONU ADVISORY NO. NINETEEN ISSUED AT 1700 UTC OF 4TH JUNE, 2007 BASED ON 1500 UTC CHARTS OF 4TH JUNE 2007. THE VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM GONU INTENSIFIED INTO A SUPER CYCLONIC STORM AND LAY CENTRED AT 1500 UTC OF TODAY, THE 4TH JUNE 2007 OVER NORTHWEST ARABIAN SEA AND ADJOINING CENTRAL AND NORTH EAST ARABIAN SEA NEAR LAT. 20.00N AND LONG 64.00E, ABOUT 600 KMS SOUTHWEST OF DWARKA (42731).


CURRENT INTENSITY T6.5 RPT T6.5 SATELLITE IMAGERIES SHOW VISIBLE EYE WITH SOLID INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM. ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE 920 HPA. MAXIMUM SURFACE SUSTAINED WIND SPEED 130 KTS GUSTING 160KTS.

FORECAST: THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO MOVE IN A NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION AND CROSS THE COAST OF OMAN BY FORENOON OF 6TH JUNE 2007. 24 HOURS FORECAST INTENSITY IS T6.5 RPT T6.5. SEA CONDITION WILL BE PHENOMENAL.
Just away to update my blog with the new New Delhi Advisory
672. 4Gaia
Ethanol is HUGELY innefficient to manufacture, it cannot be transported via pipeline due to condensation, and it would require a farm the size of Texas to produce enough corn to even make a dent. Not to mention the subsequent rise in staple food prices. Bio diesel would become a commodity just like oil should enough people begin to use it. I feel research dollars would be best spent on Hydrogen research.
673. 4Gaia
Biodiesel is however a renewable resource.
674. FLBoy
It's a shame we can't harness the energy being created by Gonu! Or any other cyclones. What a waste of energy.
shear Posted By: WPBHurricane05 at 5:39 PM GMT on June 04, 2007.

African wave still around.
It will not develop. It is to far south, about to run into high shear and South America i dont see high shear
And on Ethanol (or methane for that matter)...
While there are some interesting experiements using bio-engines (algae, bacteria) to make these fuels, it still takes more fuel/energy to make than it returns if you include the demands for growing and transport of the raw material.
However, ethanol isn't a lot better in terms of emmissions...it still produces CO2. Same for Methane/Natural Gas, although admittedly less of the other nasties that gasoline combustion outputs. It also assumes that the climate will permit the crop production in a volume large enough...it won't, not even today, and if you believe the Climate Change (I do) you can't count on it long term as a viable solution.
sadly, Hydrogen, while pristine in combustion, has to be "created"...typically by cracking water, which needs electricity, which comes from.....???....
Brings me back to teh electrical grid (supply and distribution).
Admin Notice When using Dr. Masters' blog, please refrain from posting material not relevant to the discussion of tropical weather, or the topic of the blog entry itself. Please do not engage in personal attacks or bickering. Material not conforming to these standards should be flagged as Spam and ignored.
678. 4Gaia
Good point Monk. I think a lifestyle change at home would be the only short term fix. New refineries at home or more nuclear power plants aren't going to happen anytime soon.
It will not develop. It is to far south, about to run into high shear and South America

Eh... S. America, maybe... In a few days. But shear? no. Quit looking for reasons for this not to develop. It is in a generally favorable area.

Though still, that does not mean it will develop. And it probably wont. Not every cluster of Thunderstorms becomes a Hurricane.
FLABoy what about using tunnels!!
hell sniper i wernt talking about shear ok good any 1 got a like for a vissible satalite of gonu
682. 4Gaia
Yea!!! Tunnel Talk time!!! it's only been seven months!!!
On the Arican Tropical Wave; Shear is low enough and SST's are just high enough to support development. Although there is a problem with it being near 5N. The Coriolis Effect is not strong enough for the Wave to develop a Cyclonic circulation. Anything can happen but it's not likely.
Not more tunnels?

Someone got booted off the site for annoying people with the tunnel idea.
686. 4Gaia
Of course, I was being sarcastic.
me too
Isn't the African Wave too close to the intertropical convergence zone for development?
Enough rain already...Link
MP-it's not the ITCZ that's the problem, it's the fact that it's too close to the equator.
Here is the shear map I use. Link Around 50 W there is some high shear. But like I said before this thing is to far south. Is there even a low pressure located there?
It is located around 10N now by the NHC so it's further away from the ITCZ than it was earlier.

Not every blob will develop.
10-day WAVETRAK Link
Make that 7N. It is located around 7N
697. H2PV
Posted By: Inyo at 5:20 PM GMT on June 04, 2007.

Also right now ethanol is not energy efficient, because it takes almost as much energy to create as it generates. This isn't to say that it won't be useful in the future.. but in its current state it isnt.


Statements like this are meaningless. It takes as much energy to make gasoline as you get burning it. That is to say that you pump three barrels of crude, you get two barrels of products, and sixty percent of those products is gasoline.

100% - 33% = 67%
67% x 60% = 40%
The net gasoline after refining is 40% of the energy pumped.

What's wrong with junior economics like this is failure to look at the bigger pictures. Two barrels net after three barrels pumped is broken down in a variety of products, including gasoline, diesel, propane, butane, and asphalt. Various lubricants and even some cosmetics and drug ingredients are extracted.

To look at only one product is to make a blunder typical of junior economists.

Alcohol sends the money to the US, gasoline sends it to the Sheiks of Arabique.

Alcohol money then is spent in the neighborhood buying haircuts and pizzas, tractors and mortgages. Money sent to the sheiks buys nothing, except our ports and big commercial properties.

Alcohol wastes are cattle and pig feeds directly, thereby adding to the US economy. Junior economists ignore these facts.

Alcohol production is immediately secure from supply line disruptions. Oil is not. The costs of military security, including the ENERGY costs must be included. Junioreconomists always miss this one. Why is that? Is there a special school for junior economists that specifies "No matter what you say, never, never, ever include the realities of protecting supply lines"?

Switchgrass is immensely more productive than corn. The corn lobby has the ear of the politicians at the moment, but the distillery infrastructure built for corn can be switched to switchgrass in an instant. The wastes from switchgrass are available for mushroom cultivation which is both human and livestock feed directly, and has a dry matter protein content equal to milk.

The only REAL DOWNSIDE to alcohol production is that it recycles CO2 at a time when CO2 needs reducing. Reduction of CO2 growth is not a solution to recycling already too high CO2.

Bye and bye I will post a spreadsheet which gives all the constants and intermediate math for the computations. but for now, here are the bottom lines:

51.04 -- Vector distance spacing in ngstrms of CO2 molecules PRE-Industrial (cube root of ų)
45.98 -- Vector distance spacing in ngstrms of CO2 molecules 2007 measured (cube root of ų)
40.51 -- Vector distance spacing in ngstrms of CO2 molecules double PRE-Industrial (cube root of ų)

46 ngstrm spacing of CO2 molecules is a critically dangerous quantity as quantum mechanics should tell you. It means GONU. It means the average between MAJOR HURRICANES on the planet since Katrina is 14 days on average, 15 days apart so far in 2007. It means rapid intensification. Prior to this decade Cat 2 storms outnumbered cat 3 storms which outnumbered cat 4 storms. Since 1995 on average cat 2 storms have decreased and higher numbers have increased -- storms have streaked past 2 without stopping. Since January 1, 2007 there have been ten majors, and only two cat 3s, seven cat 4s and now one cat 5 this early.

That's what those numbers should be telling you -- that rapid intensification and more generalized violent weather is a direct result of reducing the distance between CO2 molecules.

You are deep deep in the RED ZONE and you need to back off ASAP. Be orderly, don't panic, but do it without argument or delays. Junior economists have still not computed the full damages from Katrina-Rita yet, but senior economists who get a paycheck for doing the math have computed $300,000,000,000.

John Jacob Aster went onboard the Titatic with $100 million dollars cash (back when $100 million was "real money"). Neither one ever left the Titanic. 46 ngstrm spacing of CO2 molecules tells you that your Titatic is already hulled and you are now sinking. Until you get below 330 ppmv CO2 you will continue sinking. You have time to save a lot of your future, but not all of it -- that opportunity is already gone. Your money or your life -- pick one, because you have no other choice.

Keep in mind that light is measured in thousands of ngstrms wavelengths, and infrared is measured at seven thousands and going into tens of thousands of ngstrms wavelength. You are building the Solar System's Largest Infrared Laser and you don't understand any of the details of the effects of that.

If you want to see infrared pictures of what that looks like by satellite, here are photographs of Bebinca last year, which is the brightest infrared object ever photographed on Earth by satellites. The hot core was larger than hurricane IOKE, more than 70,000 square miles in area, 306 miles in diameter.

The extra CO2 from the 2006 Indonesia Forest Fires provided the last little bit of extra CO2 required to go to the next level.

http://h2-pv.us/Temp_4/Bebinca/Bebinca_01.html
http://h2-pv.us/Temp_4/Bebinca/ioke_bebinca_compare.html
http://h2-pv.us/Temp_4/Bebinca_to_Alaska/Bebinca_to_Alaska2.html
http://h2-pv.us/Temp_4/Bebinca_into_Alaska//Bebinca_into_Alaska2.html
http://h2-pv.us/Temp_5/IOKE_into_Arctic.html
http://h2-pv.us/Temp_5/Shanshan_Tornadoes.html

http://h2-pv.us/Temp_4/Arctic_Ice_Melt.html
http://h2-pv.us/Temp_4/Mystery_Solved/Ice_Mystery_Solved.html
http://h2-pv.us/1/temp_sep_06/IOKE_IR_Funktops.html
Moonlightcowboy

What about the oil off the coast of calli and in the Anwar over 20 bilion bar. estimated there.
now that is a cat 5 that you evere see
Quit looking for reasons for this not to develop.

I cant look for reasons for this not to develop but you can look for reasons for this develop.
Bye and bye I will post a spreadsheet which gives all the constants and intermediate math for the computations

Don't even bother, this is WAAAAY too off topic for this blog.
In 2001 Vamei developed at 1.5 degrees north in the west Pacific.
GOES-East IR Imagery Loop - Hurricane Floater Link
Satellite Animations

Storm-Centered Visible/Infrared (Meteosat 7; CIMSS) Link
Even if all the factors were perfect for development it still needs a low pressure.
Most likely the area of T-Storms in the Yucatan Channel is associated with a front from ex-Barry.
4-panel WV zoom. LinkShowing the training here ..
The flood advisory /watch continues here..radar Link
People in Oman are probably thinking O Man right about now.
...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A WEAK SFC RIDGE IS DOMINATING THE GULF THIS AFTERNOON EXTENDING
W ALONG 24N. SOME WEAK TROUGHING IS NOTED JUST OFF THE TEXAS
COAST BUT OVERALL RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN FEATURE
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE
AFFECTING SE LOUISIANA THROUGH ALABAMA...AND ADJACENT WATERS N
OF 29N BETWEEN 87W-93W. THE ONLY OTHER SIGNIFICANT WEATHER LIES
IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...WHERE NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTMS EXIST
ASSOCIATED WITH A REMNANT FRONTAL TROUGH FROM THE ATLC. WLY FLOW
ALOFT IS OVER THE BASIN N OF AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN.
Hey guys good afternoon just wanted to stop by and leave this 2007 hurricane season outlook.

Free Image Hosting at www.ImageShack.us


WXRisk's Summer Forecast
run for your lives we got high gas comeing thanks to gonu
run for your lives we got high gas comeing thanks to gonu
23 that looks like a bad set up this year
23 that looks like a bad set up this year
any of you think Gonu will any impact on those man-made islands in Dubai?
23 what does that mean for FL, and isn't that similar to what we saw in 2005?
Gonu might slow the oil tanker traffic out of Persian Gulf for a few days.

Credit: worldpress.org
Here's a larger view...

g

2007 season outlook
isn't that pattern similar to what we saw in 2007? and what does that mean for Florida?
Storm i posted links on both images.Thoughts on this outlook?
Prayers for everyone in Gonu's path ...
He's calling for dry times across the southeast in june and july.
727. FLBoy
I use the WXRisk site all the time. I think David is a pretty smart forecaster. His latest outlook is sensible......but it's still just another forecast. But it beats the heck out of that IWIC outlook we received a couple weeks ago!
yes the IWIC outlook can go jump in the lake
looks like an impressive week coming up for severe storms.
Adrian, that analysis is very intereseting...and looks like problems for the GOM. I respect your think (always do); but, I'm interested in whether this info is yours, or comes from somewhere else?

Thanks, always helpful, appreciate it!
I know that tropical cyclones have struck Oman before, but has there ever been a landfall by a major hurricane there (at least according to meteorological records, I am sure that in centuries past one has)

For that matter, has a major hurricane made ever made landfall on the desert coast of Iran facing the Indian ocean, or in Pakistan?
afternoon everyone been a busy day have not had much time to read
anyone have a prediction when the next system might be
Also Oman has mountains up to 10,000 feet tall. The orographic effects could make insane rainfall.
We have some serious water piling up here south of Lafayette,LA. WOW 7"+
Louisiana is hatched for another round of severe storms today as storms are building in northeast texas and making their way southeast
on 23 post that map show that trak 2 is pointing right at Louisiana that is not good
wow that rain is going nowhere. do they need the rain south of lafayette?
when is the next BULLETIN for gonu


when is 04/2200Z is it soon???
.

742. FLBoy
Supposed to head into Iran.


they need the rain in ca give it too me i will take it
NO! no more rain is needed
good give me rain we olny got 41% of are rain fall for this winter
At least some storms moved over the burned areas in GA today.

Just maybe some moisture from LA's storms will spill over into Florida, any little bit will help
NO we dont need the rain! I'm in crowley louisiana and the sun is shining its amazing but that storm isnt going anywhere and i would expect another 2 to 3 inches before that storm is done....but heads up another round should be comming in in the evening hours!
We had a quick shower just after 1 pm, .21 of an inch. We had exactly 5.00 inches in my rain guage from Barry.
749. 4Gaia
444, how was the storm yesterday?
Where yat sullivanweather?
Bethel, NY ...LOL
oh ok--thought you were more local ;-)
Morphed Integrated Microwave Imagery at CIMSS (MIMIC)
Version 1 GONU Vmax 130knt Link
Nah, but I have been keeping an eye on the situation.
755. 4Gaia
Sullivan, at least no one can accuse you if wishcasting!
You can't really tell now, but yesterday I could not see any smoke plumes on our local visible satellite shot.
I received 1.25 inches of rain in 25 mins...3 quarter inch hail and a 75 mph wind gust...no major damaged except branches down in my neighborhood
759. 4Gaia
Good, i'm glad you fared well.
Come talk about weather at my website

Link
It wont quit! this is getting serious...Abbeville Youngsville and Broussard are gonna wash away
south louisiana keeps getting round after round of severe weather....another "batch" is forming in southeast texas and pushing this way so maybe a repeat of yesterday...i feel sorry for the cajunkid catching close to 8 inches already in the rainbucket because i'm afraid more might be on the way....could be a dangerous situation down there in the southern suburbs of lafayette be on alert!
i think gonu is going to be makeing land fall any where from cat 4 to low end cat 5 what do you think?
Good lord, cajunkid, hope the rain stops there soon!
CIMMS MIMIC GONU 48hour loop Link
South Louisiana Storm Totals so far today..Link
wow its like i am not her
tazman I doubt it, there is a lot of VERY dry air over the arabian peninsula, and the oceanic heat content is lower near Oman than where Gonu currently is. However, my quick research has shown no major hurricanes hitting Oman since meteorological observations began--if any storm has a shot at that Gonu does! I'm guessing low end cat 3 at landfall.
pat....quit boarting that rain....pass it on east and south....we could use some more
whats the count cajunkid!? Looks like the storm is starting to weaken but more is on the way....if you look at the radar the storms are getting cooking in texas and are heading this way...i wouldnt be surprised if we are put under a severe thunderstorm watch box in the next few hours if not the next hour
StSimonsIslandGAGuy ok thank you
The U.S. severe MAp now Link
or send some rain my way
We will know by Wednesday :)
Ive got the frog Up ric..facing East for ya..Kermits HIGH and dry..Link
778. FLBoy
Georgia and the Carolinas......maybe hail, wind and boomers.


when is the next BULLETIN for gonu


when is 04/2200Z is it soon???
780. MZT
A possible landfall in Oman? Is this going to drive oil futures crazy?
StSimonsIslandGAGuy ok
Crowley hasnt got in on all the action yet but lets keep it that way! I had my dose yesterday...i'm still trying to pick up trees in my yard! we dont need more here....Im praying for my friends off to the south and east though let the rain stop!
444, has to be 9"+ in Youngsville
doesnt the vermillion river run close to that area...i'm not excatly sure on that but if it keeps up we will have to start monitoring the river!
The dry air around the Arabian Gulf is why storms are relatively rare, I am guessing--the oceanic heat content is good, but I think that very dry air in the mid and upper levels from the Arabian, Iranian, and Markan deserts are probably why strong hurricanes are rare. At any rate, in over 30 years of satellite observations, there has never been a hurricane rated stronger than a Cat 3 there before.
FLboy, rain yes, HAIL NO!
444, yea, it runs right under that red blob that hasn't moved all day. Funny we just have sprinkles @ the airport.
and it is still kicking too i'm looking at the radar and it shows no signs of letting up!
now look at the radar UNBELIEVABLE Link
Its like the Energizer Bunny of Train Echoes...Link
792. FLBoy
The oil facility in Muscat, Oman is only supposed to receive tropical Storm force winds. There is a natural gas facility in Sur along the coast further south closer to the forecast strike point. I'm not sure where that is exported but not the US.
Shipping disruptions through the Straits of Hormuz should be the biggest problem.
Crude is up only $1.00 today at $66.08. That's not unusual. No panic yet.
that storm that is about to hit me in southern acadia parish will probably merge with your cell and here we go again! this is really serious
GOES IR Loop of Gulf of Mexico..showing the Blowup here today.. Link
4-panel Water Vapor Loop Link
796. RL3AO
Gonu looks incredible. I hope this thing doesnt destroy any oil platforms.
what about those nice palm tree shaped islands in Dubai? I know they will get some strong north west winds.
but you know whats really awkward we are getting the worst weather it seems in a long time down here in southern louisiana but the local weather stations are not calling for any severe storms just "pop up" thunderstorms! Unbelieveable!
take a look at this

lol
the sun is shinning here now...I'm just off Pinhook close to the airport. This is crazy
Good point FLboy. I don't really know what will happen with Gonu and the oil facilities. I'm a bit skeptical about forecasts for Gonu, because a storm even close to its intensity has never been observed in that area, so forecasts which include climatology as part of their inputs may be less accurate than normal. About the only thing I feel confident about is that Gonu will not landfall in Oman or Iran as a Cat 4 or 5
CIMMS MIMIC GONU 48hour loop Link
That's quite a loop tazman! Will be interesting if something like that is there in August and September!
805. RL3AO
Is the NRL site down?
WAVCIS GOM 60 hr SST's model TAz..save this one..Link
from margies blog..as the Doc suggested we check out..
Note: now that the world has realized that Gonu is going to have a major impact, the NRL web site is getting slammed and is not accessible, so images below from NRL will likely not refresh.
Yes it is RL3AO
Gonu could try to 'fight off' some of the adverse effects it will encounter as it heads for Oman.

If it is one thing about these super strong tropical cyclones that get this perfectly structured is that they seem to create their own environment and become less affected by external forcings.
but youngsville is still getting rocked and broussard i wish i knew the rainfall totals
huh...the sun was shinning
Youngsville, La. data..scroll to bottom for stations in that area..Link
hey cajunkid looks like a line is starting to form from just south of jennings to just south of me to your hot spot over there....and look at those storms in texas heading over here they getting cooking man
..If it Keeps on Raining..Link
Patrap, the station in Maurice has to wrong reporting 0.00 precip
816. RL3AO
Living in Minnesota, I will defiantly be watching the SPC the next few days.
Yes sullivan, Gonu could. We'll have to wait and see.
444, check this out Link they can't stand any more
Use the radar storm total mode and zoom..Link
Will I get more showers or won't I today? Have to wait and see about that too. My house is at the very top of the plus sign inside the circle Link
Pink is 12 inches..
No pink for me today for sure ;-)
a foot of rain!!! and counting...a light drizzle is starting to fall here with thunder in the distance and the wind is blowing but no heavy rain i think it will blow over me
Super Cyclonic Storm "Gonu" kill the navy site
good thing thats not over N.O. ayy Patrap?
We have had 2.5in here in Kenner..with more lifting in..Link
the thunderstorm is about 10 miles to my south and the wind is blowing like crazy here and its thundering in the distance.....could the cells merging down there be responsible for the strong wind i'm getting here?
We just had a tank explosion in Vermillion Parish!

they are evacuating Indian Bayou along Deuy Rd

HW 167 is under water
That cell south of Lafayette is training in every sense of the word.

Hopefully the inflow of the supercell crossing the border into Louisianna will disrupt the sea-breeze boundry responsible for this ongoing storm.
Outflow downdrafts most likley.This kind of setup .is bad news.With Drive time a coming.
can you see that cajunkid? are you close to it?
Wait one...is that a Oil Storage tank..or what.?
StSimon,Patrap, its well to my west, thats all they said on the news flash, I'm trying to find out more
Heres the area ..Link
Has Iran ever been hit by anything tropical
what caused it?
emergencey mail network..notify..Heres a link for you cajunkid.Fill it out and youll be ahead of the game next time. Link
Most likely a Lightening strike.
839. RL3AO
Oman has be hit my three or four tropical storms. Not sure about Iran, but I doubt anything near hurricane strength.
thanks Pat!
man i wonder whats the rainfall totals now in youngsville and broussard!
14 inches in your hot spot!!!!!
843. RL3AO
How much rain does Oman get per year?
844. FLBoy
The climate of Oman is hot and arid. Daily average temperatures vary between 21C and 35C, while annual rainfall is only 100 mm.
Since 1945 it appears Oman has been hit by 13 tropical cyclones, 2 in 1979.

Link
846. RL3AO
So parts are looking at 5 years worth of rain?
847. FLBoy
So parts are looking at 5 years worth of rain?

I don't know....but it will be way more than the annual average of 4 inches....LOL!
848. RL3AO
If it can hit a low populated are, it would be interesting to see what happens if it can hold together as a Cat 2 or 3. A cyclone going over 100 degree sand? I bet it falls apart pretty quick.
Outflow boundry from supercell that's moving into Louisianna is beginning to interact with sea-breeze front between Beaumont and Lake Charles.

New storms should fire here and hopefully steal some of the moisture feeding into the cell south of Lafayette.
weather.gov
National Weather Service

Watches, Warnings & Advisories
Local weather forecast by "City, St" or zip code

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Flash Flood Warning

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

FLASH FLOOD WARNING
LAC113-042215-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
322 PM CDT MON JUN 4 2007

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN VERMILION PARISH IN SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...

* UNTIL 515 PM CDT

* AT 320 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
FLASH FLOODING FROM A SERIES OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT CONTINUES TO
MOVE OVER THE WARNED AREA. RADAR INDICATES 4 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN
HAS FALLEN ACROSS NORTHEASTERN VERMILION PARISH SINCE THIS
MORNING.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO...
MAURICE
MEAUX

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WARNED
AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.
IF YOU ARE IN THE WARNING AREA MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY.
RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG STREAMS AND CREEKS SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE
PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS
SWIFTLY FLOWING WATERS OR WATERS OF UNKNOWN DEPTH BY FOOT OR BY
AUTOMOBILE.

LAT...LON 3004 9241 2997 9199 3004 9196 3008 9207



i would have a lifejacket with you in your care if you are going any where tonight many roads are flood down there
Storm Sure Se La.Aug 05..Plaquemines Parish

Link
3.91" of rain at Central Park, NYC over the last 24hrs from Barry.

Measured only 0.72" here in Bethel, NY.
good afternoon everybody. I'm not too good at finding all the info so can someone tell me if there is anything brewing in the tropics? I'm in Florida
855. MZT
We saw some massive cyclones hit northern Australia last year... no, thay don't last long over hot sand at all!
Impressive..and on the move, Gonu

3
Please visit my blog

Link
Littleninjagrl - go to the NHC site and read their outlook. Nothing out there at this time.
so what r the thoughts on those waves off the coast of Africa
dust


What effect will this dust have as Gonu approaches the coast of Oman?
so what r the thoughts on those waves off the coast of Africa

Not real impressed. Too low of latitude, and they are slowly dying off. It is just to early in the season.
What effect will this dust have as Gonu approaches the coast of Oman?

Probably will allow for weakening.
863. RL3AO
Not sure sullivan. Usually these systems get this strong, they create their own environment and can block out alot of stuff.
sounds good wpb i have my fingers crossed that this hurricane season is smooth sailing
Isn't this great. Link
RL3AO,

I was mentioning something about that before, however, climatology would suggest that dry air intrusion would eventually infiltrate Gonu.

What's going against climatology is that a storm of this strenght has yet to be seen in the Arabian. But as witnessed with Katrina, a significant push of dry air into a storm could knock it down quite a bit. I would only imagine that the source of dry air that leveled the western flank of Katrina wouldn't hold a candle to the dry air that could possibly come off those deserts.
WPB, Brent crude has been hovering around the $70 mark for around a month now.
The western side of Katrina was no picnic..as 12 hours of it was aplenty. Speaking as one who was there. That lil puff of dry air dint do diddly as far as the effects were concerned.Link
869. FLBoy
By Conrad Prabhu
MUSCAT Omans emergency services were placed on full alert yesterday as the Sultanate braces for one of the worst cyclonic storms ever to hit the country for many decades. Supercyclone Gonu, packing wind speeds of around 200 kilometres per hour, is said to be bearing down on Omans eastern seaboard and is forecast to make landfall tomorrow night. However, the approaching storm is likely to have an impact as early as this evening, unleashing heavy rains, gusting winds and tidal waves, say officials.

Large coastal swathes stretching from Ras al Hadd to Ras Madrakah are expected to bear the brunt of the storm. Attention is particularly focused on Masirah Island where forecasters are predicting a storm surge rising as high as 10 metres. Yesterday, authorities issued a three-day cyclone alert and announced a full mobilisation of the countrys Civil Defence apparatus, with the Sultans Armed Forces, and other security and government agencies also set to play a supportive role.

Lt-General Malik bin Sulaiman al Maamari, Inspector General of Police and Customs, and Head of the National Civil Defence Committee (NCDC), convened a special meeting of the committee at the General Headquarters of the Royal Oman Police (ROP) at Qurum. Also in attendance were officials from various ministries represented on the NCDC. Later, in remarks to journalists, Lt General Al Maamari said Gonu posed a major threat to low-lying areas as well as population centres along the coast between Ras al Hadd and Ras Madrakah. Masirahs plains, where two-third of the Islands roughly 7,000 residents live, are also at risk.

Masirahs plains, where two-third of the Islands roughly 7,000 residents live, are also at risk. "We encourage people to shift from areas in the path of the storm to safer ground, particularly in Masirah and the Al Halaniyat Islands. Those who find it difficult to find safe, alternative lodging during the storm can approach the ROP, who will coordinate with other government departments to provide suitable shelter during this period. Arrangements are being made to ensure provisions of food, water and other essentials during this period," he said.

He further added: "We urge citizens and residents not to venture out into areas likely to be hit by the storm. It is advisable to keep to safe areas until the alert is lifted." Earlier, top Met officials gave a presentation on Gonus lethal potential and the likely areas of impact along Oman's coast. According to Ahmed al Harthy, Director of the Meteorology Department, Gonu is currently centred (as of 1pm yesterday) 18.5 deg N and 65 deg E around 700km off the Masirah coast.

"Gonu is moving in a northwesterly direction towards Oman and likely to make landfall between Masirah and Ras al Hadd by Wednesday night or Thursday morning. It is expected to bring very heavy rains and strong winds. Tidal waves along the coast can range from 4 to 10 metres. This combination of rain, wind and waves can pose a threat to low-lying areas. We expect 150mm of rain to fall over a 24-hour period as the storm makes landfall."

The tropical storm is expected to influence weather conditions as far north as Sohar on the Batinah coast. Heavy rains, squally conditions and high waves are also forecast along the Muscat coast if the storm maintains strength even after making landfall. Fishermen have been advised against venturing out to sea during the three-day storm alert. Gonu, since upgraded to a deadly Category 5 storm, will traverse diagonally towards the Sharqiya region and beyond over the Eastern and Western Hajar mountains before heading out into the Gulf of Oman from the North Batinah side. In the process, the cyclonic storm is expected to trigger turbulent weather overland across Sohar, Liwa and Shinas, particularly over the mountains.

Meanwhile, authorities are mounting a major emergency response in preparation for the looming cyclonic threat. All 17 security agencies and government ministries that make up the National Civil Defence Committee have been issued 'work orders' setting out their respective roles in providing active support to the emergency services. According to Lt Col Azhar al Kindy, Director of the Executive Office of the NCDC, around 4,000 ROP personnel, including those from the Special Forces and Police Academy, are being mobilised as part of the emergency effort triggered by Gonu's impending arrival.

"Units from the Sultan's Armed Forces (SAF) will be standing by, while the Royal Air Force of Oman and the ROP Air Wing will be ready to provide all necessary assistance. They will be available to supply food, medicine and provisions where needed. We are sending food and water to areas likely to be affected by the storm. Essential supplies are being stockpiled in these areas." A number of schools, and even some government departments, on the mainland have been earmarked for use as temporary shelters during the period of the storm.

The ROP will set up three 'theatres of operation' in Muscat to help oversee the emergency and rescue effort once Gonu arrives. Another 'threatre of operation' will also be set up jointly with the Ministry of Defence and other security agencies. The ROP is positioning ambulances in areas likely to hit by the cyclone. Doctors attached to Health Ministry institutions in these areas are being urged to cancel all leave during the storm alert. With communications likely to be disrupted and telecom masts damaged, authorities plan to turn to wireless and satellite-based Thuraya communications.

Thundershowers, rough seas forecast
The Met Office, citing the latest satellite pictures and numerical weather prediction charts, has described Gonu as a very severe cyclonic storm with wind speed gusting from 185-205 km/hour and associated with very rough seas. The centre of the cyclonic storm is around 480 km from the area between Ras al Hadd and Masirah, while the bands of convective clouds is around 300 km east of Masirah. The system is moving in a westerly to northwesterly direction towards Oman's coast at around 18km per hour.

Over the next 30 hours, thundershowers and cloudy conditions are predicted over the Sharqiya region, extending to Muscat Governorate and the regions of Al Wusta, Interior, Batinah and Dhahirah regions. Conditions will be clear to partly cloudy across the rest of the country. The seas off the Wusta and Sharqiya coasts, as well as the Gulf of Oman, will be "very rough", with maximum wave heights ranging from 5 to 7 metres. It will be moderate over the rest of Oman's coast with maximum wave heights of 2 metres.

Importantly, the Met Office will also begin issuing a regular stream of forecasts every three hours or so to keep the general public updated about the approaching cyclone. A mobile TV crew will be stationed at the Main Forecasting Centre at Seeb Airport to provide periodic updates. However, if the storm system weakens, the frequency of weather forecasts will be reduced, say Met officials. In addition, text messages (SMS) will be issued in English and Arabic.

Killer storm
Tropical super-cyclone Gonu could rank among the most lethal storms to hit the Sultanate in living memory. Officials recall the last major storm recorded in 1890, which is believed to have killed some 700 people, mainly along the Gulf of Oman coast and Muscat during the reign of Turki bin Faisal.




Bring it on Gonu.....we are ready!
nice stuff FlaBoy
Gonu is impressive looking but I can't tell how big it is in relation to say the State of Florida. Is is small like Andrew/Charley or like Jean or Frances?
872. FLBoy
Thanks Patrap. Source was the Oman Daily Observer. Link
Training in south GA Link
Size Comparison



MIMIC of Katrina 48hours loop
Link

MIMIC GONU 48hour loop Link


H2PV - is you name in reference to Hydrogen and Photo Voltaics? Also, I caught your pun in your previous post: "The corn lobby has the ear of the politicians at the moment"

Anyways, what is the consensus, is Gonus gonna knock out oil supply and cause gas to go up or not? It is a very impressive storm and a feel for the people that are going to get whacked by it.

Also, while Barry's rains were a definitely welcome down here. No one has mentioned the tornado he spawed and took out houses in Cutler Bay, Florida... I'm sure they don't think Barry was nothing and all benefit.
Also, while Barry's rains were a definitely welcome down here. No one has mentioned the tornado he spawed and took out houses in Cutler Bay, Florida... I'm sure they don't think Barry was nothing and all benefit.

I don't remember what channel I was watching but I remember seeing a story about that on tv.
well you all where wishing for rain for FL right? well you got your wish


its like i all way say be care full what you wish for
878. RL3AO
I think its a little smaller than Charley.
Gonu is beginning an Eyewall Replacement Cycle.

Click for a Loop

Click the image for a loop.
Posted By: mda91 at 10:01 PM GMT on June 04, 2007.

i got 7.2 in atlantic city nj


you are wrong Atlantic city got way less,they still had a lot of rain, but no where near 7.2, this is how much atlantic city had:


Link
Gonu is larger than Charley.

Gonu MIMIC
Charley MIMIC
Ya of course Gonu is larger than Charley, Charley was one of the smallesy cyclones ever.

Here in pinnelas county I experienced only 30 mph sustaind winds with gusts to 40 mph and only 1.5 inches of rain, while polk county received 8 invhes of rain and 115 mph sustained winds as it rapidy ripped through the state.
I don't remember wishing for a tornado. I remember wishing for a week of slow steady rain and no wind... I wasn't effected by the tornado...
884. Alec
I was in Polk County the day Charley ripped up my neighborhood in Winter Haven...
Does this look right to you? It sure doesn't to me!

If any of these waves rolling off the African coast make it to the Caribbean (which the first one is looking like it may have a somewhat good chance at doing that), then we may have something to worry about...

1900,
believe me...its right...they are in bad shape just south of Maurice,LA
I was still living here in Palm Beach County during Charlie and we didn't get a thing. It was a warm partly cloudy day.
I think 1900 means the radar is broken.
No, look at the max radar total.
oh, sorry

still...you don't see 14"+ of rain that often
Yea, that is a whole lot of rain. It's not as unbelevable as 59 inches, though!
893. RL3AO
The NRL/JTWC continues to shift Gonu north and now has it skimming Oman and make landfall as a Cat 2 or 3 in Iran. Unreal.
From Margie Kieper's blog:
There's a bit of a surprise on the blogs coming late this evening, for tomorrow morning. That's all I'll say for now!
895. PBG00
I read that too..what game is she playing?
it could be the new look to the blogs that aron was talking about
897. RL3AO
Hello guys from peakoil.com!
How come WU doesn't have computer models for Gonu? Anybody know the cyclone history of the region that is about to get hit? Has this happened before or is this a first?
I would rather not know about it until the surprise was revealed to me. But than what fun is that! lol
900. 4Gaia
any new landfall projections?
i was 4 mi from charley's eye wall and we got 10 inches of rain,sustained winds of 105-115 mph,tops, with one wind gust reported at 137 mph,at that time it was a 150 mph hurricane in the gulf. and we only recieved a 7ft storm suge,just thought to share that since other people are talking about charley
Eye wall replacement........
904. RL3AO
Its going thru an eyewall replacement cycle.
Or it could be the dry air.
907. RL3AO
I guess we will find out in 8-12 hours.
hey all there is a surprise comeing to the blogs i want to no what it will be
909. FLBoy
Gonu is moving over a cooler area of water. It doesn't look like an ERC to me personally.

911. PBG00
I feel for anyone in the path of a storm like that.
I don't think that cooler water is an issue. Link
914. RL3AO
I'm glad the GOM doesnt get as hot as the Arabian sea.
915. 4Gaia
If it was I would move to Alaska!
916. FLBoy
The current track has shifted further to the right so it is looking a bit better for Oman and the UAE. Even in the target area in Iran there is very little population. Mostly a desert area. The oil terminal at Banda 'Abbas is to the north and should be mostly out of the worst of it.
the water its moving over is still easily warm enough to support a category 4 or 5 tropical cyclone and has no effect on any weakening, any weakening is from other factors such s dry air and dust over the deserts that could be sucked into its circulation as well as eye wallm replacement cycles.

Trust me, look at the potential intensity for water temps, you'd be suprised just how strong a storm even 85 degree waters can support. Under perfect conditions, 85 degrees can support up to a category 4 hurricane,possibly even stronger depending on its depth, and all the water it will be traversing over is around 90 or greater, at minimum upper 80's which can support a category 5. So water temps are no factor in weakening, in fact this very warm water will help to counter act the dry air inflow due to incredible moisture and energy obsorbtion that occurrs in a tropical cyclone over such warm waters.
918. FLBoy
WTIO31 PGTW 042100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (GONU) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO


TC 02A IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE NEXT
12 TO 24 HOURS DUE TO DECREASING OCEAN HEAT CONTENT AND IS EXPECTED
TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN AFTER TAU 36 DUE INTERACTION WITH LAND, DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT, AND LOW OCEAN HEAT CONTENT. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO DISSIPATE OVER LAND NEAR TAU 72.
919. MZT
Barry's rains were helpful, but I was a little surprised how quickly the dry heat returned to Charlotte. There really isa drought going on.
Is there any chance of the blob sw of the Yucatan brewing into anything looks big right know
The shear over the GOM right now would not allow much development as Dr. Masters suggested over the next week or so; but, once the shear relaxes, this area might explode going into mid-June...
kyle - the problem with the waves right now (I think) is that they are at too low a latitude. Instead of coming over the islands into the Carib they go over land in South America.

I think ...
ya well say what you want, but unless that SST map is not accurate or they are probably releasing that because its easier for the public to understand, because I'm tellin ya even the so called cooler waters based on that SST map can easily support a very intense tropical cyclone.



Its the same basis when a weatherman says on the news: "storms were not very stong because there wasn't much of a temperature contrast along the front", well Ive seen thee say that before, but they are saying that because its easier for the general public to understand, but it goes far deep then temp contrast along a front to create severe weather, there are an incredible amount of factors if you were to go into detail.

Same deal there with the storm, its a general public statement, but to a more experienced forecaster cooler water temps really isn't the reason.


Ive seen it before and I know how it goes.


Just like when weatherman will say well there are a lot of storms in the upper midwest because abundant moisture has moved in ahead of the strong low pressure system has moved in.

Ive seen that case before where the moisture really wan't that high, in fact if you were to bring the the same airmass into are area here in Florida the NWS would call it a dry airmass.

Its jus there were complicated weather features causing the numerous storms, not so much much moisture, but thats easier for the public to understand. And since the general public realy doesn't care about all the details and never will, all they need to do is make general statements like, "cooler water temps in its path" or "deep moisture moving into place" or "sharp temp contrast".

Hope you get my point.
The air isn't dry near the surface for one, and its June now so its going to be hot as long as there is abundant sun , air aloft is dry, but tropical ssystems disrupt the atmosphere, sometimes keeping it wetter than normal, or drier depending on the situation with the storm, in this case drier with barry.

Also after recent rain from barry, ground is currently wet for now unless it stays dry for a while, so things are better. Its just a psychological effect, lets look at the glass half full, Florida isn't coming to an end as we know it, things will get better, and we've already had a decent jumpstart from Alberto, whether it takes a few months or another year before we are truly normal, normal Florida rain will once return.

I know its hard, but don't worry, things will change in time, opefully as soon as possible, but we need to be ready to halff to deal with it in case it is a while longer, but in time things will go back to normal.
925. RL3AO
I was looking at the weather conditions in Oman. Its 78 to 80 degrees...oh, thats not the temp, thats the dew point.
926. FLBoy
Gonu has now been downgraded to a Severe Cyclonic Storm:

CURRENT INTENSITY T6.0 RPT T6.0 SATELLITE IMAGERIES SHOW VISIBLE EYE WITH SOLID INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM. ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE 935 HPA. MAXIMUM SURFACE SUSTAINED WIND SPEED 115 KTS GUSTING 140KTS.
928. FLBoy
Yeah, the satellite presentation is a lot shabbier than it was earlier today and last night. Gonu was a real incredible looking storm for a while. Looks like the hours are numbered now.
929. RL3AO
It did strengthen in the night. Its now day time there. It probably has something to do with that.
930. FLBoy
Time in Oman.

Muscat


The storm is starting to erode due to dry air intrusion from Oman, closer proximity to land and less oceanic heat content.
Posted By: stormybil at 2:03 PM GMT on June 04, 2007.
her you go Link ill be watching the one off the yucatan it is close to home and anything can pop up at anytime its looking good at this hour thought it might be somthing


Thanks belatedly Stormybil, that's what I was looking for.
it says on weather.com that the current pressure in Adam,Oman is 28.02 or 948 mb,thats night right,cant be?
Is that low over land on the yucatan peninsula a remnant of barbara?

Any chance it will move into the GOM?
934. RL3AO
No. Barbara is gone. Those are just afternoon thunderstorms.
lol afternoon thunderstorms, no harm in watching


we've already had a decent jumpstart from Alberto



Alberto, Jed. Really...are you sure? lol

70-75 mph wind gusts from thunderstorm in Lake Charles today. Patio umbrellas, trampolenes, grills all flying through the air this afternoon. Very, very bad storm. Kind of felt like I was back in Oklahoma and Texas. Don't miss those at all.
I really don't think the paid professional mets at the JTWC are gonna dumb down their forcasts with intentional misinformation just for the sake of layperson understanding.

I think even the hardcore conspriacy theorists are gonna have a hard time believing those statements Jed.
941. RL3AO
Posted By: jphurricane2006 at 10:14 PM CDT on June 04, 2007.
RL3AO, how can they be afternoon thunderstorms, its 10pm at night there


They developed 3 or 4 hours ago. I think.
Just for the record, I agree that more factors than SSTs are the cause of Gonu's decline in strength.

Just dont say that a pro. forcast is riddled with the same misinformation as a TV broadcast.
943. RL3AO
The JTWC isnt in the interest of dumbing down forecasts...thats the NHC's job.
Posted By: RL3AO at 3:33 AM GMT on June 05, 2007.
The JTWC isnt in the interest of dumbing down forecasts...thats the NHC's job.


Ummmm...
evening all

there was a tornado about 50 miles north of my town in central indiana. was kinda unexpected. a sign of stormy times to come over the next few days.
Evening, all.

Here's another shot of Gonu from earlier today:



Larger views of the same pic can be seen here.
The winds gonna get up the Sultan's skirt!!!
and blow that diaper off his head!
what ever that is coming off the yucatan our local mets are saying it will bring rain some heavy to so. fla the next 3 days

GULF OF MEXICO...
A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE IS DOMINATES THE GULF OF MEXICO THIS
EVENING. RIDGE AXIS IS ALONG 24N. SURFACE WINDS ARE MOSTLY
5-10 KT. SOME WEAK TROUGHING IS NOTED OVER INLAND NE TEXAS AND
LOUISIANA WHERE WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
30N-32N BETWEEN 90W-97W. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION IS MOSTLY INLAND OVER S MEXICO AND THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA FROM 15N-21N BETWEEN 87W-94W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...
WLY FLOW WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE GULF DUE TO AN UPPER
LEVEL HIGH CENTERED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA. EXPECT SOME
TROPICAL MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS OVER THE SE GULF OF
MEXICO..S FLORIDA...W CUBA...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
dust


Looks like the large area of dust and dry air is beginning to impact Gonu
951. RL3AO
Gonu will approach the capital of Oman, which is a city of 600,000 right on the coast of the Gulf of Oman.
Posted By: Jedkins at 2:06 AM GMT on June 05, 2007.

ya well say what you want, but unless that SST map is not accurate or they are probably releasing that because its easier for the public to understand....And since the general public realy doesn't care about all the details and never will, all they need to do is make general statements like, "cooler water temps in its path" or "deep moisture moving into place" or "sharp temp contrast. Hope you get my point.

...yeah, well Jed, maybe your point should be that in most newscasts, weather only gets a couple of minutes to make their case. It isn't that the "general public" doesn't totally understand, or care. It's more of a time factor for explaining the "details" as you put it, than the publics capacity to digest and discern information! There is news, sports and stuff called commercials that require time to pay the bills that all limit time. This is why members come to this site.
Gonu seems to be winding down from 160 to now 105. It seems to made it's way into the dust and dry air and is getting entrained in the storm.
I saw one model and it was suppose to nip Oman and go into Iran. The models then changed again to right around where it was this morning. Very strange.
Gonu is still cat 5. Wunderground maps have reverted 24 hours for some reason. Most recent fix has the storm at 155 mph sustained (not 105). Forecast to brush Oman as a cat 4, and hit Iran as a cat 1/2. Pretty incredible.
955. H2PV
The navy, at this minute, says that Gonu is a cat 4/5 borderline hurricane.

Embedded in the image name is the windspeed, 135kts, and the datestamp of the image.


Gonu 135 kts, borderline Cat 4/5 hurricane.

I don't know why somebody would think this is a borderline cat 2/3 hurricane, 105 kts?

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn/tc_pages/
thumbs/IO/02A.GONU/pacific/southern_hemisphere/
vis/geo/vis/geo/1km_zoom/
20070605.0430.meteo7.x.vis1km_high.02AGONU.
135kts-904mb-209N-625E.100pc.jpg
Thunder, Gonu will be lucky to still be a CAT2 by the time it brushes Oman with all the dry air it is running into
957. H2PV
Navy is predicting that Gonu will be a cat 3 or higher for the next 24 hours right up to it's brush with Onan.

Then, with at least a third of the storm overland cut off from it's fuel, it is predicted to plunge to high Cat 1.

Link

Fortunately it is hitting with it's soft left shoulder instead of the hard right. On the right shoulder the surge would still be cat 5 strength at landfall with 40 foot waves on top, basically as high as an eight-story building. They won't get most of that because they are on the left shoulder.
BARRY WAS NEVER A TROPICAL STORM AT ALL ...ITS PURE BALONY . JUST PLAYING ALONG WITH THE CORRUPT MEDIA FOR NO GOOD REASON...LETS STICK TO REAL WEATHER SCIENCE. AND STOP TH B.S.
THE HURRICNE SEASON IN THE SOUTHEN HEMISPHERE WAS VERY QUIET. I WATCHED THE WHOLE SEASON WITH ALL MY BEST SATTELLITES AND SAW ONE STRONG HURRICANE HIT MADAGASCAR WITH 130 MPH WINDS FOR TWO DAYS AND TWO OTHER CAT.ONE HURR. HIT THE SAME AREA. THERE WERE ABOUT FOUR OTHER SMALL STORMS THAT HIT NORTHERN AUSTRALIA THE REST WERE HARMLESS. IF WE ARE TO SEE THE SAME TAME HURR SEASON, THEN WE SHOULD SEE 10 NAMED STORMS, 3 HURR CAT 2 , AND ONE OR 2 CAT. 3 -- AND THE REST SMALL TS.OR CAT. ONE ...BASICALLY A MILD HURR SEASON. .I WAS RIGHT ON THE MONEY LAST YEAR 2006 BY GOING THE OPPOSITE OF THE BIGGIES FORECAST.. LETS HOPE IM RIGHT AGAIN THIS YEAR. OH YES THE GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD SEE THE MOST ACTION. I LIVE IN BOYNTON BEACH FL.AND SAW THE EYE OF WILMA COME RIGHT SMACK OVER MY HEAD, WITH THE LOWEST PRESS. OF 27.98 " hg. AND WIND EST,AT 120-125 AT THE WEST EYEWALL. WOW WHAT A THRILL. THAT WAS THE FIFTH EYE FOR ME IN THE LAST 55 YEARS. HAZEL IN 1954 WAS FANTASTIC 115 MPH ON MY BEACH. 16 FOOT WAVES. WOW.....HOWIE