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Barry weakens, douses Florida with needed rains

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:14 PM GMT on June 02, 2007

Tropical Storm Barry is steadily weakening as it races towards the Florida coast. Winds have decreased to 40 mph, as observed by the 9:30am EDT Hurricane Hunter report, which found winds at 1,500 altitude of 47 mph. The pressure has risen 2 mb in the past two hours, and now stands at 1002 mb. Barry is embedded in a zone of strong wind shear--about 30 knots. This shear ripped away most of Barry's deep thunderstorm activity last night, and pushed these storms over the Florida Peninsula. Satellite loops shows that some heavy thunderstorm activity has returned near the center of circulation, so the shear has not been able to totally destroy the storm yet. As Barry continues today over cooler waters, it should continue to weaken, and residents of Florida should expect only minor wind damage. I doubt any station will experience sustained winds of tropical storm strength (39 mph), although gusts of 50-55 mph are likely. The main threat from Barry will be isolated tornadoes that could spin up in some of the heavier thunderstorms over land. The storm surge may cause minor flooding in the Tampa Bay area. Currently, tides are running a foot or two above normal there, and will increase with a persistent onshore wind to 3 to 5 feet above normal this afternoon from the Tampa Bay area northward to Citrus County and 1 to 3 feet south of Tampa Bay and Levy County.

Barry will do far more good than harm--the storm has already dumped 1-5 inches of rain over most of Florida, with more rain to come. Heavy rain from Barry will affect the Carolinas on Sunday, and could cause some local flooding problems there. However, Barry will lose its tropical storm status after crossing Florida, and is not a threat to reintensify after crossing into the Atlantic Ocean.


Figure 1. Total rainfall from the Tampa Bay radar.

A sign of things to come?
The hurricane season of 2007 is in third place for the earliest year that the second named storm occurred. The record is held by 1887, when the second named storm formed on May 17. Second place is held by 1908, when the second storm of the year formed on May 26.

There is no relationship between high activity early in hurricane season and high activity during the main August-October peak of the season. For example, the 1908 hurricane season turned out to be an ordinary season with 10 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and one intense hurricane.

June outlook
My outlook for the first two weeks of June was posted yesterday.

Radio play
National Public Radio's The Story program aired a 30-minute interview with me yesterday about my flight into Hurricane Hugo in 1989. The MP3 of the interview is at http://thestory.org/archive/the_story_263_Hunting _Hurricanes.mp3.

Jeff Masters

Fire

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

That couldn't be because the humidity
changed could it.
Temp isn't the only thing affecting dewpoints.
Last question tonight.. Why dont my pictues show? thanks
Posted By: seminolesfan at 3:40 AM GMT on June 03, 2007.

That couldn't be because the humidity
changed could it.
Temp isn't the only thing affecting dewpoints.


Umm,dewpoint is directly related to relative humidity.In fact,dewpoint is a better indicator of how moist the air is than relative humidity.
The img tag can be tricky, just stick to links.
MY link works but the image on the blog doesnt.
I knew that was gonna be thrown in my face...and yes I know how they relate.
weatherboykris come to my blog
Thanks everyone for answering my questions.... Be on tomarow. :)
We're on the same wavelength kris, YOU put your thought into words more correctly using the term drier air.
another cold front is coming our way from the south Carribean!!!

Hmm - a cold front from the Carribean. Interesting
(that's where the extra carriage return in my comment came from...wording and rewording and still not putting it out there correctly) lol
hornfan-you noted the sarcasm I hope?
513. MZT
Barry's remains are pumping lots of rain into eastern South Carolina.

Radar
Caribbean is spelled wrong too.. A cold front form the Caribbean.. Hmmm. Should be interesting.. Watch out for Category 6's too...
MZT or SOMEONE- Please tell me how i can post loops like that.. i can get images but never loops to work..
The NW winds on the backside pulled in some drier air.Big deal.The same happened after Wilma,was that subtropical?

So where was all this dry air. There have been days and days of east and southeast winds blowing down here. Wilma by the way was starting to become absorbed into a frontal system when she moved across Florida. Thats why you experienced a different airmass as she moved into the Atlantic. I experienced Katrina firsthand. There was no cool and dry airmass behind it. Just compare the systems that have been named this year in the Atlantic and compare them to the storms that have developed over the last few days in the eastpac and the arabian sea. They are totally different types of cyclones. Andrea was subtropical and Barry was as well.
I'm just testing it lol..
Oooh,Frances.That was a big storm.
Notice how it was regaining an eyewall feature as it moved into the Panhnadle.
Still drizzling here in Tampa. There was a short period (about 25 minutes) where the skies turned beautiful and the sun was shining bright. Then it all went gray again and has been sprinkling ever since. Its midnight right now. This morning at about 9:30 on the way to the vet, we couldn't see anything it was raining so hard and it was pretty windy. Not too bad but some wind. The rain was the worst. I'm not complaining though. I wish it would rain for another week!
Uhhh...Barry caused suffering?And who's wishcasting,let alone 'casting at all?
Kris- Yes Frances was a great Hurricane. It was stubborn too.. lol. No one is wishcasting here Nelly.

Link to Forum Giant-
hi all been reading the forum for a few storm seasons time to jump in
526. MZT
As long as we're testing loops and images... Check out the nasty "bow" storm in the plains. (Plus a "hook echo" between Clayton NM and Dalhart TX) Bet we'll read about a tornado there tomorrow.



radar
527. RL3AO
Amazing video if you havent seen it.

Link
Interesting little blow up at 16N/86-87W. Anyone have any comments about it? Could the Carribean start becoming active now?
530. RL3AO
Too close to land weather brat. Most likely just afternoon thunderstorms.
Barry was NOT a subtropical storm


where did you get that from?
532. RL3AO
Isn't it unusual that the Western Pacific has only had two storms so far this year?
533. RL3AO
Heres Gonu in the Arabian Sea.

1
I'm watching this new area of convection rolling off the African coast. Would like to see if it holds together once it enters the Atlantic. Looking quite healthy at the time.

Hot PinkLink
Barry is blowing a gale on the southern outer banks. very little rain however.
I live in N.C. No wind but rain.
Im not on the outer-banks though, im in the mountains.
http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?zoommode=zoom&num=1&delay=15&scale=0.127&noclutter=0&I D=LBB&type=N0R&lat=0&lon=0&label=you&showstorms=0&map.x=284&map.y=215¢erx=210¢ery=-967&light ning=0&showlabels=1&rainsnow=0


Hot Pink in Texas
Link
hot Pink in Texas
Hey, anyone notice that Barbara is still holding up? Is that big blob of thunderstorms over Mexico Barbara's circulation center? If it is, it's moving into the Gulf of Mexico. Could it develop? The trough is out of the GoM now, so shear should gradually abate. However, water temps are still relatively cool, and if Chantal developed, it likely wouldn't get more than 60 mph.

What do you guys think about this?
Is anyone here? Usually, someone is all over the blogs when the word "develop" is mentioned. Usually someone uses a link or picture to justify or deny the potential development.

Come on!
Also, I see a circulation center moving to the northwest via that loop that kylejourdan posted above. However, to the east of the circulation are the thunderstorms, and that's more near Barbara's landfall location.
no it wont, water to cold
Heavy Rain here in the N.C mountains..With breezy conditions..Above 1500 feet.
huge wave just came off of africa does it have a chance
To early, wait till it hits some islands further west.
Going to sleep, this rain makes me sleepy.
Northx, uh, the water in the Gulf of Mexico/Carribean border (if you can call it that), is in the low 80s. That is plenty warm for development....
Sorry guys... I hate to be a naysayer, but... That system moving off of africa stands little to no chance. It'll most likely decay 4-6 hours after reaching the Atlantic.
morning all. I agree with sniper, it won't really become anything big.
everyone is gone!
554. FLBoy
Is old Barry drying up? Any reports from Charleston area? I have read a few reported wind speeds in the 50-60 mph range and heavy rain overnight.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
740 AM EDT SUN JUN 3 2007

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
STARTING TO HAVE SERIOUS CONCERNS ABOUT AMOUNTS/DURATION OF PRECIP
FROM BARRY REMNANTS. LATEST RADAR/SATELLITE IMAGERY IS NOT
ENCOURAGING...SHOWING LARGE DRY SLOT DEVELOPING. IN FACT BOTH
GFS/NAM SHOW THIS FEATURE AND HAVE SCALED BACK BOTH PRECIP AMOUNTS
AND DURATION OF CATEGORICAL POPS IN LATEST MOS GUIDANCE FOR SUNDAY.

DECREASED POPS FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING BUT POPS MAY NEED TO BE
SCALED BACK EVEN MORE IF GUIDANCE CONTINUES ITS DRYING TREND AND
CURRENT TREND OF DECREASING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
CONTINUES.
556. FLBoy
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEWPORT HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CRAVEN COUNTY IN EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF NEW BERN...
PAMLICO COUNTY IN EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...

* UNTIL 815 AM EDT

* AT 743 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 6 MILES EAST OF
NEW BERN...OR ABOUT 6 MILES NORTHEAST OF JAMES CITY...MOVING NORTH
AT 35 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
RURAL CRAVEN COUNTY AT 800 AM EDT
I see there was bashing of the NHC last night.....
Models still showing development around the 14th -- since they were right on with Barry I do give them some more credence -- could be interesting
All we can do now is watch and wait.
Truer words were never spoken WPB ! I will see you on the 13th when we start tracking
NA

Gotta watch shear...
Yes must always watch shear -- great visual WPB -- Of course for a moment Barry was a trooper and blew up in the face of shear -- but that was shortlived for sure
Visit my new website

http://wxforum.freehostia.com/phpBB2/index.php
Dry Air and Shear crushed Barry..and wacked ol Barbara down to Zip.WV..Atlantic Basin..Link
Hi everyone. And wow, a link that actuelly works! Thanks Patrap.
Mornin' all. So I guess we're playing a funeral durge for Barry.

Eulogy: Short lived and fast, triumphant in the face of lots of sheer, and the Floridians will be for ever grateful. (at least until the next rain storm hits)
GOM 60 Hour SST's Model..waves,wind,current too. Link
And the 10-day GFSx..Link
Has anyone noticed that the weather channel is a little well, late on their shows? Like "what if a major hurricane hit Miami" and "climate change may be making hurricanes more intense".
TWC..candy for the Masses..
Morning y'all ☺ Hope all are well.

I think Barry likes it better as a extra-tropical system anyway. Down to 995 off Charleston.

41004 Buoy off Charleston
A lil clouds..a lil rain...Link
Yep pat, yesterday the pressure gradient did kick the winds up for a short period, and most of the SE got some much needed rain! Nothing but a nice rainy weekend ☺
Well Lake Okeechobee is now at 9 feet.
Lake O Water Level
Well Barry's gone - but pressure is down to 998 here...still looks yucky outside.
What's normal level WPB?

It should continue to come up over the next week or two as all this water makes it's way south in the rivers and swamps.

Morning mel ☺

You may get a little more rain as the backside passes through.
577. FLBoy
That's an increase of .6 feet WPB.....it's moving in the right direction!

The day before Barry arrived, 180 fires were burning statewide. That number declined to about 100 Saturday, according to Mike Long, director of the state's Division of Forestry.

578. FLBoy
The sad part is that so much of the heaviest rains fell east of Lake O and has been discharged into the Atlantic. I hope The Kissimmee basin received enough to raise the level a foot or more.
Hey did anyone look at the Gfs it has a Huge ts/HURRICANE Hitting cuba and then florida on june 13th
That's what it looks like SJ - i thought we had gotten it all yesterday but it's still kind of breezy here and misty. I thought he was already blowing north...

How it up near you?
581. FLBoy
Rainfall, in inches, spawned by Tropical Storm Barry as of Saturday morning:

7.60 Jupiter

7.19 Lake Worth

6.83 Palm Beach International Airport

6.31 Boca Raton

5.95 Stuart

4.23 Royal Palm Beach

4.15 Vero Beach

4.02 Fort Pierce

2.97 Belle Glade

2.90 Clewiston

2.45 Wellington

Gfs model showing Hurricane/Ts hitting south florida on 13th of june
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/
583. FLBoy
Current Lake Okeechobee water level:

9.006 ft.



Approx. 3 ft. below its historical average for this time of year.
Gfs model showing Hurricane/Ts hitting south florida on 13th of june

I don't see it, plus it is too far out.
I just saw the GFS looks like it has a good system developing 9 days out but i will wait for more model agreement before i by into this.
Posted By: WPBHurricane05 at 1:45 PM GMT on June 03, 2007.

Gfs model showing Hurricane/Ts hitting south florida on 13th of june

I don't see it, plus it is too far out.

its south of Cuba. But 9 days is too far out. i will give it 2 more days of consistency.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

Here is the link for the GFS just in case you missed this,this is not the 10 day gfs this is the longer one!
Good and wet mel! Back side should pass through here by early afternoon and it looks as if most of the heavier shower activity will remain a little ways inland today though.
Posted By: FLfishyweather at 8:56 AM EDT on June 03, 2007.

Has anyone noticed that the weather channel is a little well, late on their shows? Like "what if a major hurricane hit Miami" and "climate change may be making hurricanes more intense".


I don't know why u have this issue with TWC on the Miami hurricane thing. I think yesterday quite a number of people clarified that while Miami-Dade County did receive a direct hit from Andrew, and while NHC does consider a storm centre passing within 50 miles of a location to be a direct hit, Andrew's small radius of Cat 3+ winds meant that most of the serious damage was confined to areas well south of the downtown Miami area. One of the reasons why Homestead was such a tragedy was because it was only AFTER the storm that the majority of the people realized how serious the damage was to that area, mainly due to Andrew's small size.

TWC is focusing on a future storm that would hit the more highly populated and developed downtown area, including Miami Beach, and that would be of a greater radius than Andrew. Such a storm hitting that area in 2007 would be a very different proposition from, say the 1926 storm which devastated a newly burgeoning Miami and sent the area into an early depression. Such a storm striking that area today would wreak havoc not only on Miami-Dade's business centre, but also on much of Broward County to the north, where Ft. Lauderdale and its sister communities like Hollywood sprawl westward to the Everglades. Check out this story from the Sun-Sentinel for details on the older storm. Then compare the development in Dade and Broward Counties then with what it is now.

Additionally, TWC actually builds past events into these programs. They actually have a section on the program which says "it DID happen"! What they are doing is bringing the past events into recollection for the general public and then considering what effects similar events would have on the location in modern times.

I can't see why you would consider this "late". If anything, it is rather timely.
590. FLBoy
GFS has now dropped whatever it was forecasting 9 days out.......next!

GFS 10 image loop
BTW, that hurricane of 1926 also devastated the city of Nassau, where I live. At the time Nassau barely qualified for the title of city, with fewer than 50,000 residents. Today the city sprawls across most of the island of New Providence, a 7 x 21 eye-shaped piece of real estate with 106 feet as its highest point. A hurricane like the 1926 one would do serious damage here, despite the fact that building codes in the Bahamas are much better than those in much of South Florida. In particular, storm surge would do a great deal of damage.
Will watch the 30minute show tonight on TWC tonight.Starts at 9m.
Baha miami dade and broward counties would be devastated if a tropical system similar to andrews intensity were to make landfall in downtown miami.Conditions felt in dade and broward were nothing like the ones the were felt in florida city which is were i use to live back in 92.The max winds in dade were around 85-95mph at most while homestead went threw 140-150mph winds.Dade has been very lucky for a very long long time and one day that luck will end.Adrian
Posted By: StormJunkie at 2:00 PM GMT on June 03, 2007.

Good and wet mel! Back side should pass through here by early afternoon and it looks as if most of the heavier shower activity will remain a little ways inland today though.


Yep !!

Got a total of 1.28 Inches so far from it.
God knows we need it.

BTW Good morning all
The damage from the storm was immense; few buildings in Miami or Miami Beach were left intact. The toll for the storm was $100 million in 1926 dollars, just over $2 billion in 2005 dollars. It is estimated that if an identical storm hit in the year 2003, with modern development and prices, the storm would have caused over $98 billion in damage. Quoted from Wikipedia, who quoted from somebody else; i didn't look to see who . . .

I made a boo-boo; the storm that devastated Nassau in 1926 was the JULY hurricane. Until 2005 this was the strongest July hurricane on record. By the time the great Miami hurricane struck several weeks later, I guess there wasn't much left TO destroy. I also think that the angle of approach of the early storm, more from the south than from the east, made its winds and surge more destructive here.
Good Morning.

My back yard stil has enough water in it to be classed as a Lake...lol

Hope everyone has a fantastic Sunday!
Now that Barry and Barbara is gone, it will be boring for a bit.

Gainesville (Where i live got 2.7 inches)
hey y'all! maybe its just me, but do you think that the remnants of barry resemble a supercell t-storm? if you lokk at infared it does. just a thought.
599. 4Gaia
Good morning, I'm thankful those of you in Florida got some much needed rain.
Arabian Sea Tropical Update.

Severe Tropical Cyclone "Gonu" is forecast to intensify further. Currently at 55 knots and 988 hPa.

d
d
601. V26R
TDude, not sure what pix your referring to, but on this one just looks like your typical Noreaster Do you have a better Shot?

Link
602. FLBoy
...ERN NC INTO THE SERN VA/SRN ERN-SHORE OF MD...
ENHANCED SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH REMNANTS OF BARRY IS ALREADY IN PLACE
ACROSS NERN SC/ERN NC/SERN VA THIS MORNING...WHERE INVERTED SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS NNWWD FROM CIRCULATION CENTER OVER ERN SC INTO SERN
VA AND DELINEATES GREATER ATLANTIC MOISTURE/MARGINAL INSTABILITY.
MAIN BAND OF MOIST CONVECTION WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAS
PERSISTED OVERNIGHT AND NOW EXTENDS INTO NERN NC. WITH WELL DEFINED
DRY SLOT OVERSPREADING SMALL WARM SECTOR...ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE
BANDS MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF NNEWD MOVING SURFACE LOW
IN WAKE OF BAND OF STORMS THIS MORNING...AS FORECAST BY THE 06Z GFS.
GIVEN INFLUX OF LOWER 70F SURFACE DEW POINTS AND SFC-1 KM SRH IN
EXCESS OF 100 M2/S2 AS WINDS BACK AHEAD OF CIRCULATION CENTER...MAY
SEE BRIEF-LIVED TORNADOES WITH STRONGER CORES AS THEY MOVE QUICKLY
NWD ALONG AND EAST OF INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH. SMALL
LINES/LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELLS MAY ALSO PRODUCE ISOLATED
STRONG/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.



H23 want to say i like your site and i was listening on Friday nite the Bar Bob show you had great questions. So whats on the Horizon? I get to claim the first landfall of the Season as i live in pinellas county clearwater to be exact and barry came right through.
ClearH2OFla

did you see the videos i took of clearwater beach yesterday?
o my god oooo my god thats a biggen
I was just going to mention that big blob/wave coming off the African coast. looks huge
607. V26R
It'll die out before long
Way too early for something to develop that came off of Africa
609. V26R
And besides anything really below 10 degrees N
has very little chance this time of year
if it does form very little chance it will ittl be a big 1
I like that "unknown tropical storm" bit going on. In that area of the equator is has a zero chance of development. Must be a test storm.
That African wave is way to close to the equator to form into anything relivent.

If we were more into the season then it could have had a chance but at the moment it is just an area of Convection.
Florida Drought index looks a lot better now, the north is still dry though.

Any word on the burn ban being lifted in palm beach county?
a rather impressive wave coming off the african coast. cimatology does not favour anything developing in this area so early in the season. funny things sometimes do happen. the sst is marginal for development, as well the low shear 5-10 knots. one would have to wait and see what happens in the next 12 hrs.
The waves coming off of Africa look fairly healthy and LARGE for this time of the year. These waves rarely develop into anything at the beginning of June, but anything is still possible.
new blog
620. FLBoy
It is rare.....but it can happen:


ah man no can you repost them please
Good Morning everyone... Have any of you read Storm World: Hurricanes, Politics, and the Battle over Global Warming by Chris Mooney? It's really good!!!